C.O.B. Tuesday

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Michael Mische, Associate Professor of Management at the University of Southern California's Marshall School of Business. Michael joined the USC faculty in 1997 and also serves as CEO and a Managing Member of the Synergy Consulting Group. At Marshall, he leads and coordinates the school's undergraduate and graduate curricula in management consulting. Our interest in connecting with Michael was sparked by his recent report, “A Study of California Gasoline Prices” (linked here). The study presents a comprehensive, data-driven analysis of the persistently high retail gasoline prices in California. We were thrilled to explore the findings of the report and hear Michael's broader perspective on California's energy and power landscape. In our discussion, we cover the main themes of Michael's report, beginning with his long-standing interest in the oil and gas industry dating back to the 1973 Arab oil embargo. We explore the study's key finding that there is no evidence of price manipulation or gouging by refiners, and Michael's conclusion that California's high gasoline prices are a direct result of deliberate policy choices. Michael explains why policymakers pursue these strategies, why Californians tolerate higher energy costs, and how these policies create economic strain for lower income residents. We cover the broader economic impact of California energy policies, including the departure of more than 360 major companies since 2018, the national security risks posed by refinery closures that supply a significant share of aviation fuel and diesel to military operations in California, Arizona, and Nevada, how the push for renewable energy has become a primary driver of rising energy costs, and the underlying economics of the refining industry. We discuss the broader effects of refinery shutdowns on infrastructure like roads and airports, California's increasing dependence on foreign oil, the potential for in-state production growth, proposed policy solutions, the risks of state-run refinery models, how Middle Eastern investors are increasingly targeting U.S. real assets and innovation sectors, and more. We greatly appreciate Michael joining and sharing his expertise and insights with us all. Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by noting that broader U.S. equities surged ~2.0% on Tuesday, largely driven by news that President Trump would be extending the deadline on EU tariff increases from June 1 to July 9. Equity markets also rose due to the unexpectedly high m/m increase in May Consumer Confidence. On the bond market front, 10-year and 30-year U.S. bond yields traded lower by 8-10bps, mostly due to a plunge in Japanese bond yields despite optimistic news on the EU tariff front and Consumer Confidence. In commodities, WTI price pulled back ~$1/bbl (~$61/bbl) on growing concern that OPEC+ will raise July oil production by another ~0.4mmbpd. Iranian nuclear talks underway in Rome have sparked cautious optimism for a breakthrough, which might prove to be another “marginal” headwind for crude prices. On the U.S. policy front, Mike highlighted last week's passage of a House Tax Bill which surprisingly gutted renewable/solar subsidies and sent solar equities plunging. Passage through the Senate isn't guaranteed and could potentially extend/reverse the timeline on some of the solar subsidies. On the electricity front, it was a great week for nuclear and SMR equities (handful of SMR equities up ~40%) following four nuclear-focused Executive Orders from the Trump Administration. He also pointed out the recent eye-popping MISO Summer Capacity Auction (~$666/mw) versus last year's auction price (~$30/mw) which will lead to much higher utility bills. He closed by highlighting California's current refinery capacity of ~1.6mmbpd and how the two most recent refinery closure announcements (tota

Today we had a fantastic conversation with Daan Struyven, Co-Head of Global Commodities Research and Managing Director, Head of Oil Research, alongside his colleague Lina Thomas, Commodities Strategist, with Goldman Sachs. Daan joined Goldman in 2015 and previously co-led the Goldman Global Economics team as well as the firm's Canada Economics research effort. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from MIT. Lina joined Goldman after earning her Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard, where she focused on safe-haven assets. We were thrilled to welcome these Ph.D. powerhouses for a deep dive into a topic we haven't yet explored on COBT – the gold markets and how they intersect with oil, gas, copper, interest rates, tariffs, geopolitics, central banks, structural market changes, and more. In our discussion, Lina provides a detailed overview of the historical inverse relationship between gold and interest rates, and highlights the unusual strength of the gold rally that began in 2022. She describes that the rally was triggered by the freezing of Russian central bank assets in February 2022, which prompted central banks, particularly those geopolitically aligned or close to Russia, to increase gold purchases to reduce reliance on politically vulnerable reserve assets. Lina explains that in addition to modest investor inflows, ongoing central bank demand has played a critical role in sustaining gold's price rise and discusses how geopolitical proximity is a key predictor of central bank gold buying. We explore Goldman's approach to estimating actual central bank purchases, which are underreported in official data, Russia's gathering of gold reserves ahead of its invasion of Ukraine, the effects of the war and subsequent sanctions, and how Russia rerouted its gold exports similar to its post-sanction oil trade. Daan outlines Goldman's copper market outlook, including their view on proposed copper tariffs, the anticipated supply deficit by 2026 due to limited investment in new projects, their copper price forecast, and the key short-term drivers influencing copper prices. We cover gold's unique role as a stock rather than a flow asset, with only about one percent of tradable gold coming from annual mine supply, why central banks favor gold over silver, Goldman's four structural investment themes (Dollar Diversification, Defense Spending, Disinvestment in Supply, and De-risking Energy Systems), the firm's crude oil outlook over the next year, and much more. We greatly appreciate Daan and Lina for sharing their time and perspectives. Mike Bradley opened the discussion by noting that “Trumpatility” has faded considerably, with the S&P 500 Volatility Index now trading near year-to-date lows. Ironically, this introduces some degree of risk as broader markets are now technically overbought. Moody's downgraded U.S. debt by one notch this past week but U.S. bonds and equities shrugged it off, mostly because U.S. bonds don't typically move on ratings changes, but more so on inflation and employment growth, while broader equities are driven mostly by forward earnings estimates. The U.S. dollar weakened slightly on the U.S. debt downgrade while Bitcoin and gold prices are trading near all-time highs, likely a reflection of growing U.S. debt levels. He wrapped up with a roundup of notable Energy & Electricity headlines, including: Blackstone Infrastructure's $11.5 billion acquisition of TXNM Energy; Strathcona Resource's $6 billion takeover offer for MEG Energy; Phillips 66's Proxy vote battle with Elliott (involving four board nominations); Trump's unexpected reversal of his recent shutdown of Equinor's Empire Wind 1 project off Long Island; and the recent decline in Permian oil rig count and the potential associated gas growth implications. Jeff Tillery also joined and peppered in his thoughts to the discussion. We hope you find today's discussion as insightful and interesting as we did. Our best to you all!

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Dr. Francesco Sassi for a wide-ranging discussion on global energy and geopolitics. Francesco is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the University of Oslo and previously served as a Research Fellow in energy geopolitics and markets at Ricerche Industriali ed Energetiche (RIE). Francesco holds a Ph.D. in Political Science – Geopolitics from the University of Pisa, where he focused his research on the Sino-Russian gas interdependence. We were drawn to his straightforward analysis, insightful commentary, and use of maps to bring complex dynamics to life. We were thrilled to visit with Francesco and learn from his perspective. In our conversation, we explore the rise of political risk in energy markets and the growing global interdependence of the energy system, driven by factors such as China's increasing influence in shaping energy geopolitics, new interdependencies created by energy technology, trade and manufacturing, as well as disruptions like COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war. We examine Russian gas volumes to Europe, Spain's leadership in clean energy and the implications of its recent blackout, and the dual forces shaping Europe: rising cross-border interconnectivity projects alongside increasing energy nationalism. We touch on President Trump's recent visit to the Middle East, which is part of broader interest in energy and AI investment in the region, OPEC+ strategy, market share pressures, and the impact of low oil prices on Russia. Francesco shares his perspective on the potential for a Putin-Zelensky meeting, tensions between India and Pakistan, and how energy policy is becoming increasingly central to electoral platforms in Europe. We turn to Argentina's recent progress under President Milei, Israeli investment in lithium extraction technology in Argentina's lithium triangle, and how energy and mineral resources are increasingly being used as tools of foreign policy and geopolitical leverage. We close with Francisco's thoughts on the growing power of energy as a force shaping international relations and global industrial strategy. It was a dynamic and insightful conversation. Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by noting that broader markets rallied substantially on Monday following news that China and the U.S. have agreed to a “tentative” tariff deal. Broader equity markets (S&P 500) have completely retraced their losses since Trump's April 2nd Day of Liberation and are now up slightly (+4%). Meanwhile, the S&P Volatility Index has plunged from its April 8th tariff volatility highs and is now trading near YTD lows, something to be monitored closely as any surprise event could send broader markets lower. On the bond market front, the 10yr bond yield is trading sideways even though April CPI came in lower than expected. PPI will be released on Wednesday and if it too prints lower than expected, it could provide room for the Fed to begin cutting rates at their June 18th FOMC meeting. On the crude oil front, WTI price has rebounded nicely over the past week and now trades at ~$63/bbl. Oil traders remain focused on future OPEC+ production increases and increasingly on whether U.S. E&Ps will begin altering their 2025 capex plans at these lower prices levels. He wrapped up with a look at key events this week, notably NRG Energy's acquisition of LS Power's portfolio of natural gas generation assets (~13gw for ~$12 billion). The move follows Constellation Energy's mid-January deal to acquire Calpine Corp. and demonstrates that both companies are positioning themselves for an acceleration in electricity growth this decade. Many thanks to Francesco for sharing his time and insights with us today. We hope you enjoy the discussion as much as we did! Our best to you all.

Today we were thrilled to welcome our good friend Ashley Zumwalt-Forbes, former Deputy Director for Batteries and Critical Materials at the U.S. Department of Energy, to our offices in Houston. Ashley brings more than a decade of experience in acquiring, financing, and developing greenfield and brownfield mining projects, with deep expertise across the global mining supply chain. She served in the Biden Administration from January 2024 to January 2025, overseeing deployment of capital and tax incentives into the U.S. battery supply chain. Prior to her government service, Ashley was Co-Founder and President of Black Mountain Metals and Black Mountain Exploration. We were delighted to host Ashley for a timely and insightful conversation on the state of the global metals and minerals landscape. In our discussion, we explore the bipartisan consensus on reducing U.S. dependence on foreign-sourced metals and minerals, particularly from China. Ashley shares her experience at the DOE and her goal to buy down demand risk to attract private capital, especially for large-scale processing infrastructure. We discuss the surge of investment and momentum in lithium brine projects in the U.S. along with efforts to accelerate domestic mining, including the Trump Administration's move to expedite permits for 20 projects. Ashley outlines the tension between the desire to onshore more production and the current lack of downstream markets outside China, which remains a bottleneck for full supply chain development in the U.S. She shares innovative developments in processing methods, including China's nickel conversion efforts in Indonesia, the potential for copper to be codified as a critical mineral in upcoming legislation, and why permitting reform and seabed mining are bandaids for the larger challenge of unit economics in the U.S. Ashley further explains the difficulty in making margins at each U.S. supply chain stage, especially when compared to China's vertically integrated structure and non-profit-driven strategy, the benefits of targeted tariffs to protect nascent U.S. industries, and the lack of U.S. processing as the true choke point. She highlights the decline of U.S. stockpiles from Cold War levels to today, how the materials once stockpiled fueled the Allied victory in WWII, the depleted reserves in the U.S. today, the complexities involved in the U.S. minerals agreement with Ukraine, challenges in raising capital for mining projects, and the limited investor base. We also examine how structured government support will be essential for the U.S. to be competitive, Ashley's next steps in her pursuit of sourcing and supporting “weird and wonderful” mining transactions, and more. As you will hear, Ashley offers a unique mix of policy insight, deep market understanding, and a genuine passion for rebuilding the U.S. industrial base. We're thankful for her time and insights. Mike Bradley opened the discussion by noting that broader markets were down marginally for the day and that “Trumpatility” appears to be temporarily subsiding. He highlighted a handful of notable developments in energy markets over the past week, first being OPEC+ agreeing to another ~400kbpd increase in June oil production in addition to the ~400kbpd production increase in May, both of which are being done into an oversupplied global oil market. Saudi seems to be the main driver of the OPEC+ increases and offered several reasons for their actions at this juncture. The second development relates to a big change in E&P mindset that's occurred over the last couple of weeks at these lower oil price levels (high $50s/low $60s). A handful of E&Ps recently announced cuts to their 2025 capital programs (CTRA, EOG & FANG) and others are fully expected to announce cuts this week and next. The final development was Diamondback Energy's recent Letter to Stockholders (linked

Today we were delighted to host the team from the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC), a leading Washington NGO dedicated to bringing stakeholders together to address critical policy issues for the U.S. and find areas of alignment for action. Joining us for the session are Margaret Spellings, President and CEO, along with her colleagues David Hill, Executive Vice President of Energy, and Bill Hoagland, Senior Vice President. Margaret became CEO of BPC in 2023 and brings extensive leadership experience at both the state and federal levels, most recently serving as President & CEO of Texas 2036. Earlier in her career, Margaret served as White House Chief Domestic Policy Advisor, Senior Policy Advisor and Secretary of Education under George W. Bush. David has more than 25 years of energy experience, having served as General Counsel of the U.S. DOE and as DOE's Deputy General Counsel for Energy Policy during the Bush administration, as well as Executive Vice President and General Counsel of NRG. Bill focuses on fiscal, health, and economic policy at BPC, following a long tenure on the U.S. Senate Staff and as VP of Public Policy at CIGNA Healthcare before joining BPC in 2012. We were thrilled to visit with Margaret, David, and Bill for their latest insights from Washington. In our conversation, Margaret first outlines the BPC's team structure and its dual focus on research and advocacy through bipartisan engagement on Capitol Hill. We discuss setbacks in U.S. education policy, including how 20 years of bipartisan federal accountability progress under Presidents Bush and Obama have been undone in recent years, highlighting the need to refocus on reading and evidence-based instruction. Bill provides an overview of the U.S. national debt, noting that politically untouchable programs dominate the budget and leave little room for meaningful reform. He flags that interest payments on the debt now exceed defense spending and describes the slow-building debt and energy crises as “termites under the porch,” noting that Washington only acts under strong leadership or in response to crisis. David shares his perspective on the need for durable, stable energy policy and the importance of long-term policy certainty to encourage private sector investment in infrastructure. We explore BPC's efforts to modernize education and workforce policy to reflect today's labor market, how private conversations often reveal more bipartisan consensus than public discourse suggests, and how BPC facilitates those critical dialogues. We also touch on the disconnect between Washington and the rest of the nation, the need to clearly communicate how policy failures impact everyday Americans, the challenges posed by outdated government technology, and much more. Thank you, Margaret, David, and Bill, for sharing your insights and expertise with us all! Mike Bradley kicked us off with a few updates focused on Trump's first 100 days, Canadian election results, and the recent Spain/Portugal power outage. The best word to describe Trump's first 100 days would be volatility, or as we have aptly named it, Trumpatility! The 10yr bond yield has fallen ~40bps (to 4.2%) over this timeframe and the U.S. dollar has depreciated by ~6%. Two commodity standouts are WTI price, which has plunged ~$15/bbl to ~$61/bbl, and gold, up ~22% to ~$3,300/oz. From a broader equity standpoint, the S&P 500 was down ~8%, Nasdaq down ~10% and Russell 2000 down ~14%. The S&P 500 Volatility Index spiked by ~50% (and ~275% at its April 7th volatility peak). The Energy sector was down ~11% with Oil Services down ~28%, E&Ps down ~21%, Refiners down ~15%, U.S. Oil Majors down ~10%, Midstream down ~5% and Alternative Energy up ~5%. Electric Utilities were up ~2% while IPPs/Power Index was down ~18%. Regarding the Canadian election, Mark Carney's Liberal Party eked out a narrow win Monday night against Poilievre's Conservative Party but fell short of a majority in t

Today we had the distinct pleasure of hosting Mark Lashier, Chairman and CEO of Phillips 66. Mark joined Phillips 66 as President and COO in 2021 and assumed the CEO role in July 2022. Prior to that, he served as the President and CEO of Chevron Phillips Chemical Company (CPChem), where he held several senior leadership roles, including Executive Vice President of Olefins and Polyolefins, Senior Vice President of Specialties, Aromatics and Styrenics, and Vice President of Corporate Planning and Development. Mark began his career at Phillips Petroleum and holds a doctorate in Chemical Engineering. Beyond his leadership at Phillips 66, he serves on the Executive Committee of the American Petroleum Institute and is a Board Member of the Greater Houston Partnership and several other nonprofit organizations. Mike, Arjun and I were thrilled to host Mark for this Special Edition to discuss Phillips 66's recent performance, his strategic vision for the company, insights into today's energy landscape, and the ongoing debate with Elliott Management. In our discussion, Mark shares background on his career and transition to CEO, his early priority of addressing improvements in Phillip 66's refining segment, and the cultural transformation to re-instill pride and competitiveness amongst refiners, which involved engaging employees at all levels and investing in strategic capital projects to fix operational bottlenecks and improve reliability and earnings. We discuss Bob Pease's addition to the board, who was originally nominated through Elliott's engagement, and how he shifted from being skeptical to supportive of the company's strategy, execution, and focus on shareholder returns. We explore the history and structure of CPChem, the benefits of Phillips 66's integrated business model during times of volatility and potential downturns, and the company's industry-leading safety performance, which ties safety directly to employee compensation. Mark shares his perspective on why maintaining a diversified portfolio across refining, midstream, and chemicals is strategically and financially advantageous, as well as the optimization and regulatory advantages of an integrated structure. We touch on Phillips 66's strong ROCE versus peers, activist pressure to sell midstream assets for a higher multiple, growth across their midstream business, and broader global trends toward integration rather than asset breakups. Mark highlights the company's refining performance improvement, the rationale behind merging PSXP and DCP assets, efforts to attract generalist investors back to the energy sector by demonstrating consistent earnings, Phillips 66's philosophy of keeping assets “for sale every day” to ensure focus on shareholder value, and much more. We greatly appreciate Mark for sharing his candid insights into a complex and highly public debate. As you will hear, we reference a few items in the discussion. Phillip 66's Investor Relations presentation entitled “Delivering Value & Demonstrating Commitment,” released Monday, April 28, is linked here. Veriten's COBT episode featuring Doug Terreson is linked here. Thanks to Mark for joining us for an insightful discussion and thanks to you all for your friendship and support!

It was our privilege today to welcome the Honorable Jason Kenney, former Premier of Alberta, for a timely and insightful discussion on Canada's upcoming federal election (April 28). Jason holds 25 years of public service at both the federal and provincial level with wide-ranging policy and leadership experience. He served as the 18th Premier of Alberta from 2019 to 2022 and now serves as a Senior Advisor at Bennett Jones, in addition to holding several board positions. Prior to his time as Premier, Jason held several key federal cabinet roles, including Minister for Citizenship, Immigration and Multiculturalism, Minister of Employment and Social Development, Minister of National Defense, and Chair of the Cabinet Operations Committee. He was first elected a Member of Parliament in 1997 and was re-elected six times. We were thrilled to host Jason and learn from his unique perspectives on what the election means for energy, trade, and the U.S.-Canada relationship. In our conversation, Jason walked us through Canada's evolving political landscape and the two leading candidates: Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party and Mark Carney of the Liberal Party. He highlights key issues shaping the election including Trudeau's long tenure and declining popularity, Canada's weak per capita GDP growth, an overwhelmed immigration system, a doubling of housing costs, and issues of rising addiction and crime. Jason explains how Poilievre maintained a commanding 18-month lead in the polls until Trump's aggressive trade rhetoric reignited deep-rooted anxieties about Canadian sovereignty, prompting Trudeau's exit and opening the door for Carney to reframe the election around “Who can stand up to Trump?” while Poilievre continues to focus on affordability and change. We explore the role of minor parties in Canada's Parliamentary system, the unprecedented focus on energy and climate in Sunday's federal debate, expected policy outcomes depending on who wins, and the looming 2026 USMCA renegotiation. Jason shares his perspective on Canada's opportunity to grow LNG exports, the barriers posed by the Liberal government's zero-gas electricity rule and industrial carbon tax, and the potential for Alberta to become a hub for large-scale, gas-powered data centers given its cold climate and abundant stranded gas. We discuss Canadian electricity exports to the U.S., broader infrastructure challenges tied to electrification and economic growth, Canada's continued reliance on U.S. exports, and the growing sense that Canada's “holiday from history” is over. We also reflect on the emotional, historic and familial ties between the U.S. and Canada, the hope for reconciliation and renewed cooperation, and much more. It was a fascinating discussion. If you're interested in watching the energy and climate portion of Sunday night's Canadian Federal Leaders' debate, the 18-minute segment is linked here. Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by highlighting President Trump's recent pressure on Fed Chairman Powell to immediately lower interest rates or risk getting fired. While global fear and uncertainty remains high, Mike noted that that it can and probably will be mitigated when Trump signs some high-profile tariff deals. In broader equity markets, the S&P Volatility Index remains pretty elevated, which was evident by the DJIA plunging by ~1,000 points on Monday and surging over 1,000 points on Tuesday! Investors are closely watching Tesla's Q1 earnings, with one analyst calling it a “Code Red” Moment, which could have broader market implications. He shared several bond, currency and equity market stats for Canada. From an energy equity reporting standpoint, Liberty Energy and Halliburton reported Q1 results, with both companies noting that E&Ps haven't decided to cut 2025 activity levels yet but are looking at a range of macroeconomic scenarios in anticipation of oil price

Today we had the pleasure of hosting David Hambling for a sweeping discussion on drone technologies and their applications. David is a journalist, author, and defense technology expert with over 20 years of experience. He writes for Aviation Week, Forbes, The Economist, New Scientist, Popular Mechanics, WIRED, and more (for an archive of David's writings, click here). David is the author of “Swarm Troopers” and has researched the history of drones and in particular, has zeroed in on the potential impact of smaller drones in both military and consumer applications. We were thrilled to visit with David. In our conversation, David shares his background in military technology and how his previous book, “Weapons Grade,” led him to explore the rise of drones. We discuss how the military lost its tech lead due to rapid commercial innovations, particularly as mobile phone technologies enabled the development of small, cheap, and highly capable drones. David explains the evolution of drone use, from reconnaissance tools to precision combat systems, and how this transformation has played out dramatically in the Russia-Ukraine war, where nearly two-thirds of Russian fatalities on Ukrainian soil are reportedly caused by small drones. We explore the shift from human-operated drones to autonomous systems, the difficulty of defending against small, agile drones, and the growing threat that they pose to critical energy and transportation infrastructure. David shares background on the historical cultural bias within militaries that sidelined drones in favor of piloted aircraft, until the CIA's early adoption of drone strikes eventually forced the Air Force to adopt them, as well as the recent surprising Trump Administration decision to continue the Boeing F-47 contract. We cover the regulatory challenges facing drone adoption, particularly the limitations on beyond visual line of sight operations, public concerns around safety and privacy, and global developments including Dubai's plans to pilot flying taxi drones by 2027. David outlines China's dominance in the global drone market, applications of drones including infrastructure inspection, delivery services, reforestation, and the unique Ukrainian “Victory Drone” program that encourages civilians to help war efforts by building drones at home for frontline use. We also touch on China's demographic challenges and how its shrinking and aging population is fueling the nation's strategic investment in AI, robotics, and autonomy, the critical role of software in making humanoid robots useful, especially with using assistive tech for elderly care, and more. We end with David's thoughts on what the drone and robotics landscape might look like in ten years. It was a fascinating and wide-ranging discussion that raised both the opportunities and the ethical complexities involved. Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting that from a broader equity market standpoint, “Trumpatility” remains alive. Despite S&P volatility being cut in half over the last five trading days, it's still higher than average and will likely stay elevated until we begin to see tariff deals signed. Equity markets feel much worse than reality, given that the S&P 500 is only down ~7% year to date. On the International equity front, Argentina received a $20 billion IMF package last Friday, which could be an extremely important development for the country's long-term growth. On Monday, Argentina allowed its currency to freely float (between 1,000-1,400 pesos per dollar) for the first time in a very long time. In response, Argentinian 10yr bond yields plunged this week by ~150 basis points, and the Argentina equity market (Merval) and major Argentinian Energy equities have both rallied on the IMF deal. From an oil market standpoint, WTI looks to have temporarily stabilized in the low-$60s per barrel range. This week, the IEA slashed both its 2025 &am

We are excited to share this Special Edition COBT featuring Matt Loszak, CEO, and Jon Guidroz, Senior Vice President of Commercial and Strategy, from Aalo Atomics. Founded in 2022, Aalo is a pioneering nuclear energy company working to revolutionize the industry by manufacturing entire nuclear plants using prefabricated, factory-built components. Matt comes from a background in software startups, and his interest in nuclear began during his childhood in Toronto. Jon joined the company in September and is a seasoned leader in technology and sustainability, having previously held senior roles at Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, and Google Cloud. Last Monday, we had the opportunity to attend Aalo's Factory Unveiling in Austin and see the technology up close. Mike Bradley, Brett Rampal and I were thrilled to host Matt and Jon. In our conversation, we explore the renewed interest in nuclear energy, driven by the growing need for reliable low impact low cost power. We discuss Aalo's impressive growth (expanding from a small team of 5-10 to 45 people in under a year with plans to scale to 85-90 employees in the next 12 months), the company's Factory Unveiling event showcasing their Aalo Pod, designed to power AI data centers, and their ambitious goal to deliver power at under 3 cents per kWh. Matt shares insights into Aalo's focus to cross the “first-of-a-kind” barrier to “nth-of-a-kind” and what makes their “XMR” (Extra-Modular Reactor) design unique. We touch on the company's culture, focused on urgency and achieving lofty goals, their success in drawing talent from organizations like SpaceX, Tesla, and the oil and gas industry, and the company's plans to begin construction of a reactor at Idaho National Labs in 12 months. We cover the advantages and challenges of their sodium reactor design, the company's successful Series A fundraise and goals for Series B, and collaboration opportunities with oil and gas. It was a fantastic discussion and we appreciate Matt and Jon for taking the time from their busy schedule to visit. We look forward to following Aalo's progress and hope you enjoy the discussion as much as we did. Our best to you all!

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Dr. Kostas Bakoyannis, Chair of the Committee on the Environment, Climate Change and Energy at the European Committee of the Regions. Kostas has served as a member of the Committee since 2020 and previously held elected roles as Mayor of Athens, Governor of Central Greece, and Mayor of Karpenisi. He brings nearly two decades of public service experience including roles at the Greek Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the European Parliament in Brussels, and the World Bank in Kosovo. We were thrilled to connect with Kostas for an insightful discussion on Europe's energy future, the pressures facing European industry, and how the EU is navigating today's complex geopolitical landscape. In our conversation, Kostas shares his perspective on Europe's environmental and energy policies and the challenge of balancing energy security with energy transition amidst rising geopolitical tensions. We discuss the impact of tariffs and trade relations, Europe's internal challenges regarding energy affordability, regulatory complexity, and bureaucracy, and Greece's more balanced and pragmatic energy policies. We explore the importance of interconnection and regional energy cooperation within Europe, as well as the broader geopolitical and economic implications of efforts to connect energy systems with Cyprus and Israel. Kostas offers insights into how average Greek and EU citizens experience energy and financial pressures, the limitations of EU communication, and the importance of preserving the U.S.-European alliance built after WWII. We examine how different EU countries are pursuing diverse energy mixes and the need for technological neutrality in policymaking. We touch on Europe's evolving strategy on industrial policy and tariffs, the urgency of presenting a united Western front in dealing with China, calls for increased European defense spending, and the seriousness of concurrent economic, national security, and ideological tensions. Kostas highlights Greece's economic transformation, the investment climate, lessons from local governance, the need for more flexible, innovation-friendly regulation within the EU, and more. It was a broad-based discussion and we're thankful to Kostas for sharing his time and unique insights. Mike Bradley opened by discussing that “Trumpatility” is alive and global fear is high! He noted that Trump's reciprocal tariffs are dominating global markets and that broader equity markets could still have additional downside. However, the time for panic was weeks ago when equity market volatility was low, not today, when fear is extremely high. On the broader equity market front, Trump's reciprocal tariffs haven't just affected U.S. equities (S&P 500 down 12% over last 5 trading days) but also global equity markets (down 8-12%) over the same timeframe. Investor fear is historically high with the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) trading at ~55 today and as high as 60 on Monday (3rd highest VIX level of the last 30 years). The S&P 500 opened strongly on Tuesday (up 3.5%) before ending the day down just under 2.0%, which looks to be signaling that investors are “selling the bounce” rather than “buying the dip.” Investors seem inclined to “buy the dip” around the S&P's 200-day moving average of 4,675 (6-7% lower). On bonds, he pointed out that the 10yr bond yield trades at ~4.25%, which is a higher yield than it traded on Liberation Day, as traders sense the Fed could be conflicted between tariff induced price inflation and a tariff induced U.S. recession. March CPI & PPI reports due this week could influence Fed decisions, with a cooler-than-expected inflation reading possibly paving the way for interest rate cuts as early as the May 7th FOMC Meeting. In the oil market, WTI price has plunged ~$14/bbl (to $58/bbl) over the last five trading days and is now trading at Mar '21 price levels. The recent plunge in oil price was due not only to Trump

Today we were delighted to welcome Michael Kao, Private Investor at Kao Family Office and CEO & Portfolio Manager of Akanthos Capital Management. Michael founded Akanthos in 2002 and transitioned to focus on his family office in 2019. Michael is also the author of "Kaoboy Musings” on Substack (linked here). Previously, he was a Portfolio Manager at Canyon Capital Advisors, where he co-founded the Canyon Arbitrage Fund. Michael started his career in the commodities unit at J.Aron/Goldman Sachs and has over 30 years of experience across commodities, credit, convertible arbitrage, and distressed investing. As we approach what President Trump has coined “Liberation Day” on April 2nd, we were eager to find someone who could help us all better understand the rationale behind these developments and their implications. In recent Substack posts, Michael has shared some of his interesting theories and makes a case that what appears chaotic and unpredictable might actually be part of an audacious but coordinated plan. We were thrilled to hear Michael's latest insights on market volatility, energy dynamics, the evolving investment landscape, and why April 2nd might just be another stop on the way to (hopefully) something better. In our conversation, we first ask Michael for his view on the complexities surrounding the Trump Administration's actions and how to interpret the end goals of their policies. He shares an analogy comparing the current U.S. economic environment to navigating an asteroid field (like Han Solo's decision to fly the Millennium Falcon directly into an asteroid field when being chased by the Empire in Star Wars), highlighting several key economic challenges to manage including the current 7% non-wartime deficit, short-term debt reliance, geopolitical tensions, and the need for broader economic recalibration. We explore various ways to manage the U.S. debt including the possibility of terming out debt and reshoring manufacturing, the impact of oil prices on the broader economy, the weakening U.S. dollar, and how the Trump Administration's shift from a “carrot” to “stick” approach in policy negotiations may affect market dynamics. We discuss potential scenarios for a U.S. recession or economic slowdown, the growth of the private equity market, the increasing role of private credit in financing private equity-backed companies, and the role of the Federal Reserve in the broader economic picture. Michael provides insights on how sovereign wealth funds could help manage the U.S. national balance sheet by leveraging geographic assets, his experience in transitioning to managing his family office and focusing more on uncorrelated private investments, the potential for a black swan event, the risk of ongoing geopolitical tensions escalating, the importance of thinking outside the box, and much more. We greatly appreciate Michael joining and sharing his expertise and insights with us all. As you'll hear, we discuss some of Michael's recent posts. His piece entitled “Mental Models – Navigating The Asteroid Field With Trump 2.0” is linked here and the Kaos Theory podcast episode featuring Michael Every is linked here. Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting that markets are in a “Calm Before the Storm” mode with investors awaiting the impact of Trump's April 2nd reciprocal tariffs. Rather than focusing on how markets might react post-reciprocal tariffs, Mike reviewed how markets performed in Q1'25 with the “Trumpatility” overhang. In bonds, the 10yr fell in Q1 by ~35bps to ~4.20%. WTI price ($71.50/bbl) ended Q1 relatively unchanged, which was a big surprise given the bearish oil sentiment that had built throu

Today we had the very exciting opportunity to take COBT “On The Road” to the Colorado School of Mines (CSM) in Golden, CO, where we recorded a special live audience show featuring Dr. Paul Johnson, President of CSM, and Jeff Miller, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Halliburton. Paul has led CSM for nearly ten years and brings extensive experience in academia, previously serving as Dean of the School of Engineering at Arizona State University. Jeff has served as CEO of Halliburton since 2017 and has held multiple senior leadership roles across the company since joining in 1997. Before our discussion, we had the pleasure of touring the CSM campus, visiting with faculty, staff and students, and hearing from select administrators. We were thrilled to visit with Paul and Jeff for a broad discussion on the evolving landscape of energy education, workforce development, and the critical role of industry-academia collaboration in shaping the future of energy. In our conversation, we explore CSM's history, its longstanding focus on engineering, and its deep ties to the energy industry. We discuss the collaboration of Halliburton Labs with universities and research institutions as well as the resurgence of interest in mining, driven by its critical role in energy security and renewables. Paul shares insights into CSM's experimental mine and its applications across energy, defense, and technology sectors, how Mines contributes to U.S. competitiveness in the global energy landscape, and the university's balance between academic research and real-world industry applications. We examine the shift in student interests and industry focus over the past decade, Halliburton's approach to hiring and retaining skilled workers, and the benefits of CSM's emphasis on real-world problem solving. Paul shares his perspective on the increasing importance of hands-on experience in engineering education and the diversity of industries hiring CSM graduates from aerospace, oil and gas, infrastructure, computer science and more. Jeff discusses how Halliburton Labs supports early-stage companies, the role of accelerators in bridging the gap between R&D and commercialization, and differences between “Founders” and “CEOs.” We touch on technological advancements at CSM including its ambitious expansion into space resource utilization and development of a cutting-edge quantum engineering program, AI's growing impact on industry and education, and much more. We ended by asking Paul and Jeff for their vision of CSM and Halliburton in the next decade. Their outlook reflects continued growth and a can-do attitude toward solving some of the world's most pressing challenges. Today was a fascinating exploration of the current state of industry-academic collaboration, the new energy pragmatism we all keep talking about, and the incredible innovation that can happen on a great campus like CSM. As you'll hear, we discuss the exciting Halliburton Labs Pitch Day event taking place in Denver Wednesday. For more information and to register for Pitch Day, click here. If you are in Denver, it's not too late to come in person. Otherwise, you can register to attend virtually from anywhere! We want to thank the teams at Colorado School of Mines and Halliburton Labs for their partnership and hospitality in making today's episode possible. A huge thanks to Paul and Jeff for sharing their time and expertise with us all. And as always, thanks to you all for your friendship and support!

Today we had the pleasure of hosting our good friend Dr. Scott Tinker, Chairman of Switch Energy Alliance, CEO of Tinker Energy Associates, and Director Emeritus of the Bureau of Economic Geology at UT Austin. Scott also hosts “Energy Switch,” a PBS talk show featuring America's leading experts on energy and climate. His work is focused on uniting industry, government, academia, and NGOs to address major societal challenges in energy, the environment, and the economy. In that spirit, Scott recently announced the formation of a new nonprofit, Energy Corps, which was developed in partnership with Toby Rice of EQT. It's always fantastic to visit with Scott and we appreciate him joining us to share more about Energy Corps along with his latest insights. In our discussion, Scott shares his perspective on evolving global attitudes toward oil and gas, emphasizing the need for leadership that voices informed opinions rather than conforming to every pendulum swing in public sentiment. We explore the reality that for much of the global population, climate change is not a top priority, and that economic development and access to affordable, reliable energy take precedence. We discuss the widening gap between wealthy and poor nations, where billions still live without sufficient energy access and face urgent priorities for human progress, education, and quality of life. We explore the hope that Scott has encountered in developing nations for their future, contrasted with the fear and climate anxiety prevalent in many developed countries. Scott raises concerns about policies that restrict resource development in poorer nations due to climate concerns, characterizing these restrictions as a form of modern economic colonialism. Meanwhile, China's significant investments in infrastructure in developing countries have been welcomed, showing a broader preference among these nations for investment over aid. Scott shares his “50-50-50 Vision” for Energy Corps, aiming to lift all 8.3 billion people to 50 megawatt-hours of energy consumption and $50,000 GDP per capita annually within 50 years. The organization intends to measure human progress through energy success, partnering with existing organizations to focus on measurement of impact, path to commercialization for sustainable growth, and global boots-on-the-ground engagement. We discuss the growing acknowledgement of “The Rational Middle,” the concept of “debt to fret,” referencing previous debt-driven policies that have led to widespread concern about economic stability today, and hope that uniting people around the shared goal of advancing humanity through energy access could foster more durable, bipartisan policy. We also touch on younger generations' perspectives on nuclear energy, the importance of tailoring energy solutions to regional resources, and the need for diverse energy portfolios to meet global needs. Throughout the conversation, Scott shares unique, personal stories from his travels to over 60 countries, providing a real-world view of the global energy landscape. As always, it was a fascinating and wide-ranging discussion. To kick off the show, Mike Bradley shared that he just returned from Panama, where the National Assembly approved an overhaul of the country's social security system, with President Mulino expected to sign it into law. The significance of this reform, Mike noted, is that it allows President Mulino to focus on his second major domestic challenge, which is restarting the Cobre Panama copper mine, which was closed under his predecessor. On the bond market front, Mike highlighted Wednesday's FOMC Rate Decision Meeting, noting that consensus expects the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged despite recent economic data showing the U.S. economy is slowing and inflation is cooling. On the broader equity market front, equities have recently begun moving sideways (after ~10% correction due mostly to Trumpatility). In addition to the FOMC M

We are very excited to share this Special Edition COBT on the 5th Anniversary of We are very excited to share this Special Edition COBT on the 5th Anniversary of COBT. Our very first show was March 10, 2020 (exactly 5 years ago today!), and we are beyond thrilled that Secretary Chris Wright joined us to commemorate the event. This week will be his debut party at CERAWeek, so the timing could not have been better for a discussion. Secretary Wright was nominated by President Trump to serve as the 17th Secretary of Energy on November 16, 2024, and confirmed by the U.S. Senate on February 3rd, 2025. If you have not yet watched his confirmation hearing, it's a must-see for energy policy insights and is linked here. CERAWeek officially starts today in Houston (agenda linked here) and Secretary Wright was the kickoff speaker Monday morning. In our COBT discussion with Secretary Wright, we explore the expanding role of natural gas in the global energy mix, the rising costs of electricity, and the importance of grid stability supported by natural gas, nuclear, and coal. We discuss regulatory barriers affecting the construction of pipelines, transmission lines, and large-scale energy projects in the U.S. and how AI is shaping the future of energy from advancing fusion energy and grid optimization to breakthroughs in drug discovery and national security applications. Secretary Wright shares his observations that policymakers are becoming more pragmatic about energy affordability and reliability, the need for tailored energy solutions in the U.S. with many states relying on different energy sources, Puerto Rico's ongoing energy crisis and the determination of the current Governor to fix it, pipeline infrastructure challenges in the Northeast, and the important work that U.S. National Labs are doing to advance scientific achievements. We ask Secretary Wright for his thoughts on Europe's energy policies and the unfortunate industrial decline that's happening there, Africa's urgent need for reliable energy, and the complex realities of climate change. Secretary Wright emphasizes the importance of intellectual honesty in energy and climate discussions and shares insights on navigating government bureaucracy, building a high-performing team at DOE, and shaping energy policies that balance security, cost, and sustainability. As anyone who has listened to him knows, the message is “energy addition” and not “energy subtraction.” The other thing that resonates is his clear determination to do what he can to help the nation. A huge thank you to Secretary Wright for joining us today. To start the show, Mike Bradley provided an update on the year-to-date performance for a number of key flavors: the 10-year bond, broader equity markets, energy and power equities, and energy commodities, with an emphasis on the surge in U.S. natural gas prices. A few items were mentioned during the discussion: Secretary Wright's first Secretarial Order is linked here, Jim Ratcliffe's letter on the challenges facing Europe's chemical industry is linked here, and the Bettering Human Lives report is linked here. Today marks Secretary Wright's third appearance on COBT. We previously had the pleasure of hosting him on October 11, 2022 (episode linked here) and September 27, 2023 (episode linked here). As we look back on the past 5 years of COBT, we have had 269 regular Tuesday episodes, 32 Special Edition episodes, and over 320 guests from across the energy sector. For a fun look back from the archives, the first ever episode of COBT from Marc

Today we had a fantastic session with Neil Mehta, Managing Director and Head of North American Natural Resources Equity Research, alongside his colleague Carly Davenport, Vice President of Equity Research, with Goldman Sachs. Neil joined Goldman in 2008 and oversees research coverage across oil and gas, utilities, midstream, metals and mining, and clean technology, while also leading coverage for large cap energy equities. Carly joined Goldman in 2016 and covers U.S. utilities. She previously covered SMID cap refiners and was a member of the integrated oils & refiners team. With energy earnings season wrapping up, we wanted to reflect on key takeaways. We were fortunate to host Neil and Carly, whose coverage and breadth of knowledge made for a fascinating discussion. In our discussion, Neil first provides a detailed overview of key trends driving market performance, highlighting a shift from a broad sectoral view to a more focused approach on stock selection and performance dispersion. He emphasizes the significant performance differences among companies based on operational execution, capital allocation, and management quality. On the oil and gas side, Neil notes that range-bound commodity prices have reinforced the need for disciplined positioning, with an emphasis on capital efficiency and balance sheet strength. Carly walks us through key trends in utilities, including the surging focus on power demand driven by AI, data centers, and industrial expansion. We explore the growing interconnection between energy and technology markets and its impact on investor behavior, including how generalist investors are increasingly shaping energy sector valuations by focusing on growth and ESG considerations. We discuss the evolving natural gas landscape, the mounting pressure on power prices, and shifting attitudes among tech companies toward energy sourcing, with reliability and speed to market taking precedence over sustainability. We examine trends of investors seeking more access to company boards, the importance of engaged and visible boards in maintaining investor confidence, power price trends, how utilities can sustain investor confidence by tying equity raises to accretive growth opportunities, the role of power forward curves, best practices for managing earnings calls, and more. We greatly appreciate Neil and Carly for sharing their time and perspectives. For additional insights from Neil, we previously had the pleasure of hosting him on COBT in September 2022 (episode linked here). To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted that the 10yr bond yield has plunged to its lowest level (~4.2%) of President Trump's second term. Bond markets are growing increasingly concerned that Canadian, Chinese & Mexican tariffs will lead to retaliatory measures against the U.S. which could impact/slow U.S. economic growth. He noted that bonds are now dialing in three interest rate cuts for 2025, and that on the broader equity market front, equities have become increasingly more volatile. He discussed the big intraday volatility on Tuesday in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (~750-point intraday swing) and that the S&P 500 was down ~3% over the last week (due to souring investor sentiment) and was approaching technically oversold territory. On the crude oil market front, WTI price slid to ~$68/bbl this week (approaching low-end of its 6mo trading range) due to OPEC+ unexpectedly signaling its intention to begin unwinding long-held oil production cuts, beginning in April. If OPEC+ does follow through with oil production increases, as planned, then it'll further widen the 2025 global oil surplus unless its offset by yet unannounced Iranian sanctions by the U.S. On the Energy equity front, the YTD performance dispersion in the Energy sector, and especially

Today we had the honor of welcoming back our good friend Dr. Dan Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global, Chairman of CERAWeek, and Pulitzer Prize-winning author of “The Prize” and more recently “The New Map.” He is widely recognized as one of the foremost experts on energy, geopolitics, and the global economy and his achievements and contributions to the energy industry are immense. We were delighted to have an hour of Dan's time to hear his latest insights on the evolving energy landscape and to preview key themes and discussions at CERAWeek, which is kicking off in just under two weeks. This Tuesday, Dan's paper, co-authored with Peter Orszag and Atul Arya, was published in Foreign Affairs titled “The Troubled Energy Transition: How to Find a Pragmatic Path Forward” (linked here). Dan also recently co-authored an article titled “The importance of US LNG for economic growth and the global energy transition” (linked here). In our conversation with Dan, we explore key themes from both pieces, including the challenges of balancing energy security, economic growth, and the global energy transition. We ask Dan for his perspective on today's complex geopolitical environment, the influence of the current U.S. administration on energy and regulation, and global energy competition, including the divide between developed and developing nations, where economic growth and energy access remain a top priority. We touch on key topics and speakers at CERAWeek, including new discussions on trade and industrial policy, the future of aviation fuel, Saudi Aramco's experience with solar, and the growing momentum behind fusion energy, just to name a few. Dan shares insights into the historical context of today's energy transition, emphasizing that it is an energy addition rather than a transition, along with misconceptions about how transitions unfold and the evolving role of critical minerals in global energy policy. We discuss the potential for a resolution in the Russia-Ukraine war, its implications for commodity markets and geopolitical strategy, and the broader complexities of managing volatility in today's rapidly shifting energy landscape. As always, it was our pleasure to visit with Dan and we appreciate his thoughtfulness and optimism for the future of energy. Thank you, Dan, for joining us! Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting that broader equity markets seem to be entirely focused on AI-related news this week. He noted that rumors earlier this week that Microsoft was cancelling data center leases have slammed the stock prices of IPP & Electrical Providers. NVIDIA reports Q4 results after Wednesday's close, which will set the tone for equities (AI Tech & IPPs) through the end of the week. On the crude oil market front, over the last week WTI price has sunk ~$3/bbl ($69/bbl) on several factors, chief among them being growing optimism of a potential Ukrainian ceasefire. Offsetting this potentially bearish oil news is a growing belief that OPEC will delay April scheduled production increases to 2H'25. He rounded out the conversation by highlighting that the focal story in Energy equities this week is BP's Capital Markets Day (set for Wednesday, details linked here). He noted that BP has previously indicated that the theme for their Capital Markets Day will be a “fundamental reset of strategy” and that investors aren't going to settle for small changes, rather, they're demanding a wholesale retreat from renewables, significant non-core asset sales and a total refocus on fossil fuels. Jeff Tillery also joined and

Today we had two stellar guests for a COBT discussion focused on Germany's significant upcoming election on February 23. We had the pleasure of hosting our good friend Dr. Lars Schernikau alongside Dr. Daniel Stelter. Lars is an energy economist, entrepreneur, commodity trader, strategic advisor, and the author of “The Unpopular Truth about Electricity and the Future of Energy.” We have known Lars for a few years now and reached out to him for advice on an expert voice on the German elections, economy and overall macro outlook. He recommended Daniel and we were thrilled to get them both to join us. Daniel is an acclaimed macroeconomist and strategy consultant and his background includes 20 plus years as Senior Partner and Executive Committee Member at Boston Consulting Group. More recently, he founded the think tank “Beyond The Obvious.” We were delighted to visit with Lars and Daniel. We covered a lot of territory in our conversation starting with asking Lars and Daniel for background on whether the upcoming election is likely to bring meaningful economic or policy reforms and probing its broader implications for Germany's economic trajectory. They shared their unfortunately low expectations for significant change, pointing to Germany's ongoing economic decline, which has been exacerbated by policy decisions during COVID, including heavy spending and regulatory shifts, and further strained by high energy prices, energy scarcity, and deindustrialization driven by the country's aggressive transition to renewables and more recent closure of their nuclear plants. We explore Germany's debt-to-GDP ratio as a strategic advantage, though constrained by debt brake laws, potential reforms to reallocate funds from subsidies and social programs toward more productive investments, hidden liabilities that significantly increase Germany's actual debt burden, European debt dynamics, the Euro, and speculation on whether the U.S. will prioritize strengthening Germany's economic resilience or focus on attracting German industries to America for lower energy costs. We touch on potential future scenarios, including the possibility for Germany to delay coal plant closures or access domestic gas reserves, the U.S.'s vested interest in supporting Germany and the EU to maintain geopolitical stability, and the increasing political polarization in Germany. We also discuss how China's long-term strategic planning in EVs, batteries, and raw materials has outpaced European efforts, the strategic implications of sanctioning Russia, and much more. It was a candid look at the challenges and opportunities facing Germany and Europe and we can't thank Lars and Daniel enough for sharing their time and thoughts with us. Mike Bradley started us off by highlighting that broader equity markets seem to be focused solely on Trump-Trump-Trump policies, whether that be recent talks between Russia/U.S. on a Ukrainian peace deal or reciprocal tariff threats. He noted that there's little in the way of market moving economic data this week which might allow broader equity markets to continue gravitating higher. Meta's stock price has been up twenty consecutive trading days (an equity market record) and NVIDIA will be reporting quarterly results next week, which could create a lot of volatility and set the tone for the Technology sector in the coming weeks. On the crude oil front, he discussed rumors that OPEC might look to delay oil production increases (120kbpd) that were scheduled for April. The recent pullback in crude oil price also seems to be grounded in optimism for a breakthrough in the Ukrainian war. On the natural gas front, European natural gas price is trading at ~$15/MMBtu, down ~$2/MMBtu over the last few weeks, on optimism the EU will allow a more flexible gas storage refill this year. European gas storage levels are 44% full versus the 5-year average of 54% full, which provides a bit of a gas price floor heading into summer. He w

Today we were delighted to welcome the Honorable Lisa Raitt, Vice-Chair of Global Investment Banking at CIBC, for an insightful discussion focused on the implications of recent U.S.-Canada trade developments. Lisa joined CIBC Capital Markets in 2020 following an eleven-year tenure in the Government of Canada. Her distinguished career includes serving as Deputy Leader of the Official Opposition and the Conservative Party of Canada, as well as serving as Minister of Natural Resources, Minister of Labor, and Minister of Transport. We were thrilled to host Lisa and hear her valuable perspective on the evolving trade dynamics between the U.S. and Canada. In our conversation, we explore the Canadian view on President Trump's recent comments regarding tariffs and Canada's auto manufacturing industry, along with the broader implications for U.S.-Canada trade relations. We discuss Canada's political landscape, including Prime Minister Trudeau's decision to step down after losing party support, the Conservative Party's growing momentum under Pierre Poilievre, and Canada's economic challenges and growth concerns. We touch on the unifying effect trade tensions have had on Canadian political and business communities, the potential for retaliatory measures, the need for more power generation, transmission, and distribution to support Canada's economic growth, and intra-Canada trade complications that impact Canada's competitiveness. Lisa provides insight into the impact of the Canadian dollar and interest rates, how currency fluctuations affect key sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, and sports, the deep economic and familial ties between the U.S. and Canada, whether ongoing trade disputes could fundamentally alter the relationship between the two countries, and more. We are very thankful to Lisa for sharing her time and perspective. Mike Bradley started off the show by highlighting that President Trump's new tariffs and tariff threats are increasing volatility, but that for the most part, bond and equity markets have been moving sideways. He noted January CPI & PPI will be reported over the next two days which could create added market volatility for bonds and equities. If both inflation reports print cooler-than expected, it will likely lead to intensifying pressure from Trump for the FED to cut interest rates at the March FOMC Meeting. On the crude oil market front, WTI price has rallied this week to ~$73/bbl and crude oil time spreads are pointing to a physically tight oil market. Oil price continues to be impacted by on/off tariff threats and continued OPEC production curtailments but was aided this week on news that Russian oil exports are being impacted by tighter Russian oil sanctions. On the natural gas front, U.S. natural gas prompt price has rebounded to ~$3.50/MMBtu on colder weather and the 12-month natural gas strip is now trading above $4.00/MMBtu. BP indicated on their Q4 call that at current U.S natural gas prices, they were contemplating picking up gas rigs “now” which is a new development. He also noted that European natural gas price was trading at ~$17/MMBtu (~$100/bbl oil equivalent) because European gas storage is draining faster than expected due to colder winter weather and poor renewable performance/utilization. He ended by flagging Equinor's recent strategy shift (significant reduction in renewables capex thru 2030) and also noted that BP is calling for a “fundamental reset” of their strategy at their Capital Markets Day (Feb 26th). Robert Kester added his thoughts on AI's dominance in global discourse, highlighting this week's high-profile AI Summit in Paris and different global approaches to AI, including the U.S.'s free-market stance, Europe's push for regulation, and China's state-backed AI expansion. We hope you all enjoy the discussion with Lisa as much as we did. Our best to you all – and to our friends up north, let's work this out, eh!

It's a big week in Houston with NAPE in town, and we were thrilled to welcome our good friend David Bat, President of Kimberlite Research, for an in-depth discussion of the latest OFS activity, trends, and technologies. David joined Kimberlite in 2015 and holds over 30 years of experience spanning upstream, power, and oilfield research. Kimberlite is a global oil and gas market research and consulting firm that gathers insights from more than 20,000 hours of annual interviews with industry professionals to analyze market trends and benchmark performance for oilfield equipment and service providers. We were excited to hear David's perspectives on the evolving OFS landscape.In our conversation, David provides background on Kimberlite's unique approach to gathering high-quality data from E&P operators and oilfield service users worldwide. He explains how their methodology offers deeper insights into technology adoption, service quality, and operational performance and walks us through key slides from a presentation (full version linked here). We explore recent technological advancements including rotary steerable systems improving drilling efficiency, self-oriented perforating guns enhancing completion effectiveness, and advancements in electric submersible pumps. We discuss how digitalization, software applications, and AI-driven analytics are reshaping oilfield operations as well as trends in frac technology, oilfield electrification, and shifts in fuel choices. David shares factors driving operator recommendations and highlights the contrast between North American and international markets, the potential for unconventional growth in Argentina, Australia, and the Middle East, the resurgence of offshore developments, and the challenges that prevent certain innovations from gaining widespread traction. We explore broader key industry themes, including consolidation trends in oilfield services, how company culture influences service provider success, the growing role of mobile power solutions across both oil and gas and non-energy sectors, and AI's role in data aggregation, market intelligence, and operational decision-making. We end by asking David for his vision of the oil and gas services industry in the next decade. This is where he makes a great comment about "differentiation and an improving competitive moat" around the best companies. It was a wide-ranging and thought-provoking discussion and we're very grateful to David for sharing his expertise with us.

It was our privilege today to welcome Philippe Ducom, President of ExxonMobil Europe, for a discussion centered on Europe's challenges regarding energy policy and overall economic competitiveness. Philippe has been with ExxonMobil for 37 years and began his career as an engineer at the Notre-Dame de Gravenchon Chemical plant in Seine-Maritime. Over the years, he has held a variety of senior positions across manufacturing, business analytics, planning, sales, and marketing, working in Europe, Japan, the United States, and Saudi Arabia. Before being appointed as President of ExxonMobil Europe in 2018, Philippe served as Chairman, CEO, and President of ExxonMobil Saudi Arabia and previously led ExxonMobil Japan as Lead Country Manager. We noticed Philippe's post, “Red tape is driving investment out of Europe – and threatening the energy transition” (linked here), in October of last year and have been eager to discuss. We were thrilled to host Philippe and learn from his unique perspectives and outlook for Europe.In our conversation, Philippe provides background on the European Parliament and Commission's five-year cycle, and why the time to discuss these matters is now with a new 5-year legislative cycle just beginning. We discuss the challenges facing Europe including low growth, declining purchasing power, and lack of industrial competitiveness, as well as recommendations to reduce the regulatory burden. Philippe highlights how the previous Commission's challenges have included managing COVID-19, helping the Ukrainians, pursuing energy security and trying to attain society's climate goals, all of which has bloated government balance sheets. Philippe shares his perspective on the complexity and inefficiency of Europe's regulatory and permitting process, his recommendations for immediate actions that would require no cost but yield significant improvements, challenges of operating or opening new industrial facilities in Europe and he provides an update on the European chemicals and refining sectors. We examine the structure of the EU, cultural differences in the reliance on markets in the U.S. versus Europe, the importance of free markets and risk-taking to drive innovation and competitiveness, and ExxonMobil's increased engagement with public policy and public discussions overall. We cover country-specific energy mix decisions among EU member states, how recent geopolitical events have exposed the importance of energy policy and gas infrastructure, Europe's approach to energy regulation, the growing role of natural gas and nuclear energy in Europe's energy mix, and the shifting dynamics of gas supply and infrastructure post-Ukraine invasion. We also explore the impact of Europe's carbon border adjustment mechanism and the notion of extraterritorial regulations, how the U.S. IRA could offer valuable lessons for Europe, and much more. We ended by asking Philippe for his vision for Europe's energy landscape in the next decade comparing two scenarios, one where Europe continues on its current regulatory path versus one where pragmatic policies are put in place. It was a wide-ranging and insightful discussion.

Today we had the honor of hosting Chairman Thomas Gleeson of the Public Utility Commission of Texas for an insightful and timely discussion focused on power, the dynamics involved, and the power revolution happening in Texas and globally. Chairman Gleeson was appointed by Governor Abbott to his role in January of 2024. He brings 15-years of experience at the PUCT, where he previously served as Executive Director, Chief Operating Officer, Director of Finance and Administration, and Fiscal Project Manager. Prior to joining the PUCT, Chairman Gleeson worked as a legislative analyst for the Texas Senate and as a budget analyst for the Legislative Budget Board. He earned a Master of Public Administration from Texas A&M University. The PUCT is responsible for economic regulation of Texas's electric, telecommunication, water and wastewater utilities. We were thrilled to visit with the Chairman. Chairman Gleeson first outlines his objectives upon becoming Chairman, focusing on stabilizing the post-Winter Storm Uri environment, engaging stakeholders, as well as the differences in responsibilities compared to his predecessor, Peter Lake, who managed the immediate crisis after Winter Storm Uri. We discuss the enhanced relationship and collaboration between the PUCT and ERCOT, structural changes to the PUCT to increase the number of commissioners from three to five to improve decision-making and communication during emergencies, improvements in grid performance and reliability during recent cold weather events (including this week's arctic blast!), and the challenge of meeting Texas's rapid energy demand growth with infrastructure investments and a diversified energy mix. We discuss efforts to streamline regulatory processes for businesses that are considering relocating to Texas, balancing market growth with policy goals, the state's focus on energy expansion over transition, and addressing rising demand with all resource types while balancing reliability and costs. We explore collaboration with large companies to build additional generation capacity and support the grid, Texas's regulatory agility, differences between Texas's market and capacity markets in other regions, the need for exemptions or adjustments in federal emission standards during emergency grid situations to support grid reliability, and the economics of building new gas-fired power plants. Chairman Gleeson shares insights on the role of large hyperscalers as contributors to infrastructure development rather than just large energy consumers, distributed generation models and how co-locating with grid-connected resources and building additional capacity is the “sweet spot” for collaboration between private entities and the grid, the potential for additional nuclear power in Texas, leveraging Texas's budget surplus to foster energy innovation and reliability through public-private partnerships, the evolving role of ERCOT in integrating distributed energy resources, and much more. We want to thank Commissioner Gleeson for sharing his time and perspectives with us on a busy day. We look forward to staying in touch. Mike Bradley was in Panama for this week's COBT and opened the conversation by relaying that Panamanians seem generally surprised and concerned with Trump's continued rhetoric around control of the Panama Canal. From an overall markets standpoint, he noted that investors are really focused on Trump getting his Cabinet installed quickly, and more importantly, what Trump's flurry of Executive Orders means for policy and markets. From a crude oil market standpoint, WTI was down ~$1.50/bbl this week due to Executive Orders to unleash American Energy (lower energy prices?) but mostly due to a rally in the U.S. dollar which is impacting multiple commodities. On the broader equity market front, the DJIA was up 400-500 points as investors seem temporarily relieved that aggressive tariff policies weren't enacted in Trump's initial Executive

Many of you have likely noticed the growing interest in Greenland making headlines recently, including the U.S.'s overt interest in potentially “acquiring” the country. As we've followed these developments, we have been intrigued to explore further and were fortunate to connect with Dr. Mark Nuttall, Professor and Henry Marshall Tory Chair of Anthropology at the University of Alberta and Adjunct Professor at the Greenland Climate Research Centre. Mark joined the University of Alberta faculty in 2003 and became affiliated with the University of Greenland and the Greenland Climate Research Centre in 2012. He holds a Ph.D. in Arctic Anthropology and his research focuses on the societies and environments of the circumpolar North and Northern Europe. Mark is also the author of several books, including his most recent, “The Shaping of Greenland's Resource Spaces: Environment, Territory, Geo-Security.” We were delighted to host Mark for an insightful discussion on Greenland's global significance. We covered a wide range of topics in our conversation, beginning with Mark's personal interest and extensive history studying Greenland and the Arctic and Subarctic regions. We discuss the historical context of Greenland's status and its complex relationship with Denmark, including economic policies, relocation programs, and cultural assimilation efforts that have contributed to Greenlandic attitudes toward Denmark. We explore Greenland's strategic importance in U.S. and global security strategies dating back to World War II and the Cold War, concerns about how Greenlandic independence could increase foreign influence, particularly from Western adversaries, and Greenland's economic considerations and resource development. Mark shares insights into Greenland's regulatory framework and ownership of its subsurface resources, the potential for developing these resources, Greenlanders' right to self-determination and their cultural and political aspirations for independence, the U.S.'s longstanding interest in Greenland, and its significance in Arctic shipping lanes. We cover challenges for Greenland's economic independence, including its financial reliance on the Danish block grant, which accounts for 60% of Greenland's public budget and 20% of its GDP, implications for Denmark if Greenland achieves independence, and concerns about the social and environmental impacts of large-scale resource extraction on small communities. We also explore whether independence might lead to shifts in policies for oil and gas exploration to support Greenland's economy, the challenges of balancing tourism growth with infrastructure constraints, the unique system of land and resource ownership in Greenland, and more. We greatly appreciate Mark for sharing his deep expertise and perspectives. It was a fantastic discussion.Mike Bradley opened the conversation by noting that markets are mostly focused on two near-term events: U.S. economic reports this week and Trump's Executive Orders in the coming weeks. On the bond market front, December PPI printed lower than expected on Tuesday and surprisingly pushed the 10-year bond yield higher (~4.8%) which is the highest 10-year yield since Trump was elected. Investors appear much more focused on Wednesday's December CPI report which could result in added market volatility. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 is down ~2% over the last week and has almost completely roundtripped since Trump was elected. Over the last week, Energy was the best performing S&P sector (+4%) with Technology the worst performing (-5%). On the crude oil market front, WTI price has rallied another $4/bbl (~$78/bbl) this week due to stiffer Russian oil sanctions from the Biden Administration which could ultimately reduce Russian oil exports by 0.5-1.0mmbpd. He noted that these unexpected Russian oil sanctions plus the potential for Iranian oil sanctions under Trump could result in global oil markets going fr

Today we are thrilled to kick off the first COBT episode of 2025 with our good friend Rob West, Founder and Lead Analyst at Thunder Said Energy. Rob started Thunder Said in 2019 and provides unique, thought-provoking, and economic-driven insights into energy transition research and technologies. He is a long-time energy analyst and previously built and led the energy practice at Redburn and served at Sanford C. Bernstein and Partners Capital before launching Thunder Said. This episode marks Rob's fifth appearance on COBT; he most recently joined in January 2024 (episode linked here). We were delighted to connect with Rob to reflect on 2024 and explore what the future might hold for energy in 2025. Rob has now kicked us off in 2022, 2024 and 2025. This may be becoming a tradition! We covered a lot of territory in our conversation starting with Rob's musings on trying to define what energy transition actually means, how the world's current focus on avoiding catastrophe needs to be replaced with more aspirational visions of human progress, the role of policy, subsidies, and competitiveness, the need for energy abundance to support human development, and the risks of pursuing costly and ineffective strategies that fail to achieve their objectives. Rob shares his perspective on how energy affordability and economic competitiveness influence voter behavior and government policy shifts, how shifting geopolitical dynamics are shaping global energy strategies, the potential for AI to enable breakthroughs on everything from materials value chains to DAC, the geopolitical situation in Estonia, and the broader implications of Russian aggression. At one point Rob observes “the West is already at war, it just doesn't admit it because of the implications.” We discuss the importance of assigning real weight to geopolitical risks in energy forecasts and market strategies, Rob's “F-U” Recession Scenario where countries retreat from global trade and cooperation leading to disruptions in energy and other value chains, and Texas's continued role as a hub for energy innovation and growth. We ended by exploring the global bottleneck in moving energy from where it's created to where it's needed, growth opportunities in utilities and midstream, the increasing volatility in energy systems, the concept of the “third great energy transition” with semiconductor technologies, and much more. As mentioned, Rob's “Energy Transition: Classic Blunders” video from December 2024 is linked here. We can't thank Rob enough for sharing his time and thoughts with us today to kick off the year in style. Mike Bradley kicked us off by discussing the performance of bonds, commodities and equities since our last COBT on December 17th with Dr. Steven Koonin (episode linked here). He noted that the 10-year bond is currently yielding ~4.65% (up from ~4.4%) which is a Trump post-election high and a one-year high. The FED cut interest rates 25-basis points at their last FOMC Meeting, and bond trader consensus is now in the camp that there'll only be two additional interest rate cuts in 2025. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 has taken a bit of a breather (down ~1%) with the Energy (+2%) and Technology (+1%) sectors outperforming. On the crude oil market front, WTI oil price has rallied ~$4/bbl (to ~$74/bbl) and has pushed above its recent narrow trading range of $68-$71/bbl. Crude oil trader sentiment heading into 2025 continues to be mostly bearish, even though WTI time spreads having recently spiked, which could be signaling a tighter physical oil market. He further noted that Saudi seems to be getting more constructive on crude oil given that it raised its official selling price to Asia for the first time in three months. Global oil prices also seem

This week we were on the road in Oklahoma City and had the exciting opportunity to sit down with Dr. Ann Bluntzer Pullin, Executive Director of the Hamm Institute for American Energy at Oklahoma State University. Ann was appointed to Executive Director in August and has over 25 years of experience in higher education as a professor and administrator, most recently serving as Executive Director of the Ralph Lowe Energy Institute at TCU's Neeley School of Business where she served in several leadership capacities for a tenure of eleven years. Ann started her career as a Foreign Service Officer in Education and Agriculture and served in Poland, Lithuania, Indonesia, and Australia. Established in 2021, the Hamm Institute is at the forefront of energy geopolitics and international energy security initiatives, in addition to driving technological and policy innovations through research to address domestic and global energy challenges. It was our pleasure to visit with Ann on-site at the Hamm Institute to discuss their latest updates and observations on today's energy world. In our discussion with Ann, we explore the critical intersection of energy security and national security, the Hamm Institute's mission to foster informed dialogue around energy and economic growth, and the importance of partnerships with responsible energy producers to improve global security and sustainability. Ann shares insights from a recent trip to Taiwan, Korea, and Japan with Governor Stitt of Oklahoma, highlighting discussions with energy ministries, economists, and industry representatives about the energy security challenges faced by these countries, as well as the global trend to prioritize national interests and how a strong and self-reliant America can serve as an example for other nations. We touch on the role of the U.S. in exporting natural resources and fostering energy security, the challenge of balancing short-term geopolitical stability with long-term innovation and sustainability, the Hamm Institute's efforts alongside OSU to shape global energy discussions and support developing nations' energy needs, the potential for Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy's DOGE initiative to disrupt conventional thinking, the positive opportunity for media to bring awareness to government issues and necessary reforms, and much more. We greatly enjoyed the discussion and appreciate the important contributions Ann and the Hamm Institute team are making around energy, particularly with issues around national security and energy security and how they are completely intertwined. Thanks to Ann for joining and thanks to you all for your friendship and support!

Today we were thrilled to visit with Dr. Steven Koonin, Senior Fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, for the final COBT episode of 2024. Dr. Koonin joined the Hoover Institution this year following 12 years at NYU, serving as a professor in the Schools of Business, Engineering, and Physics. Before his tenure at NYU, Dr. Koonin served as the Under Secretary for Science at the U.S. Department of Energy in the Obama Administration. Our discussion was particularly timely as Dr. Koonin recently authored an Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal entitled “The Right Way for Trump to Ditch the Paris Agreement” (linked here). Dr. Koonin is also the author of “Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, And Why It Matters.” Today marks Dr. Koonin's third appearance on COBT (previous episodes include April 20, 2022 linked here and May 17, 2021 linked here). It was fantastic to hear Dr. Koonin's perspective on energy, climate, and the future as we close out 2024 and look ahead to 2025. As you will hear, he has lots of great thoughts about a broad range of things! In our conversation, we explore the need for a global course correction in energy and climate policy, the opportunities and challenges of having more business-minded individuals in government, the disconnect between the scientific community and public policy, and the importance of transparency and effective communication by government leaders to explain energy and climate policy issues more clearly to the public. We discuss key points from Dr. Koonin's Op-Ed, including his proposed actions for the Trump Administration if they were to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, the implications of Europe's energy strategies and their lasting consequences, and Dr. Koonin's suggestions to restructure the Loan Programs Office to prioritize research and development of scalable, economically viable technologies. Dr. Koonin shares his observations on fusion energy as a potentially transformative energy source and the opportunities and challenges involved, talks about intriguing advances in energy storage, and touches on other technological innovations including underground coal gasification with carbon sequestration. We also cover the US's role in setting an example for energy policy and improving global energy access, Dr. Koonin's outlook for 2025, and more. It was a wide-ranging and insightful discussion. Thank you Dr. Koonin for joining! Mike Bradley kicked off the show by highlighting the performance of a handful of commodity and equity prices since Dr. Koonin last appeared on COBT (4/19/22). The 10-year bond yield (~4.4%) surged last week, sending it back to previous Trump post-election highs. It's consensus that the FED will cut interest rates by a quarter point at Wednesday's FOMC Rate Decision meeting, but what's not consensus and what bonds are trying to handicap, is the path forward for interest rates in 2025. On the broader equity market front, markets took a bit of a breather last week and are mixed/modestly lower this week given that investors are laser-focused on the FOMC Meeting, especially Chairman Powell's Post Conference dialogue on future interest rate policy. On the crude oil market front, WTI rallied ~$4/bbl (to ~$71/bbl) last week but continues to trade in a very tight trading band (~$68-$71/bbl) given that fundamentals still seem to point to a 2025 global supply surplus. On the gas market front, although the news came out after our COBT recording, the DOE's long-waited “Updated Final Analyses on LNG Exports” was released. The analysis stopp

Today we had a unique and fascinating opportunity to visit with Miguel Galuccio, Chairman and CEO of Vista Energy, at Vista's offices in Neuquén, Argentina. Miguel is a highly accomplished energy entrepreneur and serves as an Independent Board Member at SLB and GridX in addition to his role at Vista. Prior to founding Vista, Miguel served as the Chairman and CEO of YPF from 2012 to 2016, in addition to several international positions at SLB, most recently serving as President of SLB Production Management. We were thrilled to hear Miguel's valuable insights into Argentina's energy potential and specifically into the growth we are seeing in the Vaca Muerta. In our conversation, we explore Vista's rapid growth and their technological and operational advancements, the benefits of Argentina's bipartisan political support for energy development, and the transformative economic impact of Vaca Muerta in shifting the country's energy trade balance from deficit to surplus. We discuss the critical role of free-market mechanisms in scaling production, leveraging lessons from U.S. shale, Vaca Muerta's potential as a cornerstone of Argentina's energy future, opportunities for collaboration between the US and Argentina in energy and economic development, and insights from Miguel's experience at YPF, notably the importance of efficiency, innovation, and team integration. Miguel shares background on the “One Team” model integrating Vista, SLB and Nabors teams to optimize operations and performance, key infrastructure developments including the development of the Vaca Muerta Sur pipeline, Vista's broader mission to serve Argentina and enhance lives, and strategies for reducing operational costs in Vaca Muerta without the scale of US shale operations. We also cover Vista's disciplined financial management, the company's commitment to being a long-term player, Vista's intriguing and exciting nature-based solutions business (website linked here), the importance of industry collaboration in driving future growth and innovation, and much more. For additional reading on Argentina, The Economist's article entitled “Javier Milei: “My contempt for the state is infinite” is linked here. Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that the 10-year bond yield (4.2%) is at its lowest level since Trump was elected. Both the CPI & PPI reports will be released this week and will go a long way in determining what the FED does next week at its FOMC Rate Decision Meeting. On the broader equity market front, markets continue gravitating to new all-time highs but caution could be warranted due to current and unforeseen global political turmoil. The month of December is typically a good month for the S&P 500 with average monthly performance of ~1.5-2.0% over the past five years. On the crude oil market front, WTI continues to trade in a very tight trading band (~$68-$71/bbl) even with news of additional Mideast turmoil (Assad's fall in Syria) and rumors that China might pursue looser monetary policy in 2025. OPEC delayed their current production curtailments by another three months which was totally expected. He also noted that even with these OPEC curtailments in Q1, global oil supply will remain in surplus and oil prices are likely going to be capped unless Trump moves to sanction Iranian oil exports early in his Presidency. On the energy equity front, Energy was among the worst performing S&P sectors last week (down ~5%) as investors were putting the OPEC meeting in the rearview mirror and focusing on the continued global oil supply surplus. Investor sentiment currently favors natural gas over crude oil equities and that sentiment likely continues into early 2025. Chevron Corp. lowered their 2025 capex budget last week and this week ExxonMobil will be hosting their Annua

It was an honor today to welcome Dr. Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Dr. Grossi is a distinguished diplomat with an esteemed career spanning 40 years in nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. He has served as the IAEA's Director General since December 2019 and was re-appointed for a second four-year term beginning in December 2023. Prior to his current role, Dr. Grossi served as Argentina's Ambassador to Austria. Other career highlights include Argentine Representative to the IAEA, President of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, Assistant Director General for Policy and Chief of the Cabinet at the IAEA, and Chief of Cabinet at the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. He began his career as Argentine Representative to NATO. We were delighted to visit with Dr. Grossi. In our conversation, we discuss the IAEA's critical role in nuclear safety, development, and nonproliferation amid global challenges, including efforts to prevent nuclear accidents in active conflict zones. Dr. Grossi discusses the agency's unprecedented decision to establish a permanent presence of IAEA experts at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine to ensure safety and security, the agency's ongoing communication with both Ukrainian and Russian leadership to mitigate risks during wartime, and the dedication of the IAEA staff who have volunteered for these high-risk missions. We cover the IAEA's history, which was inspired by President Eisenhower's “Atoms for Peace” initiative, the agency's evolving mission in regulatory and industrial standardization, the increasing interest in nuclear energy as a demand-driven solution to global power needs, and how the IAEA is supporting countries through their Milestones Program to provide guidance for adopting nuclear energy. Additionally, we explore the growing role of private capital in nuclear projects and the IAEA's efforts to engage with international financial institutions including the World Bank to create a more favorable investing environment for nuclear energy, geopolitical dynamics influencing the sector, and the IAEA's collaboration with nuclear CEOs, vendors, and clients worldwide. It was a profound look at the challenges and opportunities shaping nuclear energy and we are deeply grateful to Dr. Grossi for sharing his time and insights. Mike Bradley kicked off the show by highlighting that even though broader U.S. equity markets continue to post new highs, they're still trying to decipher Trump's current tariff “rhetoric” from future tariff “realism.” Trump surprised markets again this weekend by vowing to impose a 100% tariff on BRICS countries that don't/won't commit to be anchored to the U.S. dollar. He also noted that current global events (including South Korea's President declaring Marshall Law on Tuesday & French lawmakers possibly seeking to hold a no-confidence vote to topple the French President on Wednesday) could spill over and potentially stall the runup in U.S. equities. On the crude oil market front, WTI has traded up ~$2/bbl this week (~$70/bbl) on news the U.S. is sanctioning several foreign entities tied to the Iranian crude oil tanker “shadow fleet.” OPEC delayed their virtual meeting to Dec 5th and consensus is betting OPEC will agree to delay an oil production increase by another three months. On the natural gas front, U.S. natural gas price plunged this week to ~$3/MMBtu due to a warmer 6-10-day weather outlook and a rebound in U.S. gas production (~104bcfpd). European natural gas prices continue to stay elevated mostly due to extremely high November gas storage withdrawals. The EU raised their February gas storage target levels to 50% (up from 45%) due to growing 2025 supply concerns. On the energy equity front, Energy is among the worst performing S&P sectors this past week (down ~1%) due to the strong U.S. dollar, modest OPEC Meeting uncertainty and Canadian/Mexican crude oil

Since we started COBT in 2020, we have gotten into the tradition of doing a Thanksgiving show each year. In our previous episodes, we have enjoyed showcasing and thanking the hardworking people working in energy who make Thanksgiving Day possible. Without them, the day simply isn't possible and we extend our thanks to them all again today. This year, we decided to mix it up a bit and thank another important group, America's World War Two Veterans. Of the 16 million Americans who served in the war, by some estimates less than 60,000 remain today. They are sadly passing away at a rate of approximately 300 a day. The youngest of them are now in their late nineties. Clearly, the time to talk with them, learn from them, and thank them again is now. Earlier this year, we met Tyler Boland, known as “the World War II Kid” (see his work here).Tyler is a 20-year-old college student on a mission to interview as many WWII veterans as possible. Starting his project as a freshman in high school, Tyler set out to meet and interview these veterans as a tribute to his great grandfathers who both fought in the war. Six plus years later, he has befriended over 300 of them, sponsored mini-reunions, absorbed their wisdom, and even taken them on special trips, including taking a group to the 80th anniversary of D-Day celebration this summer in Normandy. This young man is making a difference in the lives of these wonderful men. He has done all of this on his own. It's a remarkable and wonderful thing. With Tyler's help, we came up with the idea of an excursion to the The National WWII Museum in New Orleans. The audacious thought was to offer any veterans that Tyler knew the chance to go to the museum. Tyler knew exactly who to ask and Milton Ripple (age 96), Frank Stellar (age 100), and Bill Balabanow (age 98) were ready and willing to go! He and the three veterans from the Philadelphia area traveled down on Sunday where we met at Commander's Palace for a quintessential New Orleans meal on Sunday night and then had a great day at the museum on Monday. Special thanks to Murphy's CEO Roger Jenkins for getting us into Commander's Palace, and to Jeff Hildebrand for connecting us with the National WWII Museum. The staff at Commander's Palace treated our veterans like the heroes they are. The team at The National WWII Museum wrapped the men in the kindness and respect they deserve, let us in early for a VIP tour of all 7 museum buildings, treated us to lunch in the American Sector cafe, and also let us use their private library for today's podcast. It was a phenomenal experience to tag along as the men took a trip down their wartime memory lane. Below you'll see pictures of our veterans from their time in the service and then together at the museum. The quote from MacArthur is worth pausing on. The conversation with Tyler, Milton, Frank and Bill was wonderful. The time with them overall was incredibly special. The veterans are in good health, can walk and get around well, are mentally sharp, and tremendously upbeat. My take is that you can't live as long as they have, see as much as they have, endure as much as they have, and not be truly special human beings. As for Tyler, he makes you feel so good about America's youth that he would do all this. God bless Tyler Boland and the work he is doing, these men for all they have given us, and for all the men and women who fought to protect our freedom in World War Two. Happy Thanksgiving to you all! One final note – Milton, Frank and Bill, when you read and watch this, I'd like to just say one more time, THANK YOU!

Today we had the honor of hosting Pablo Vegas, President and CEO of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). Pablo was appointed as CEO by Governor Abbott in October 2022, after previously serving as Executive Vice President of NiSource and Group President of NiSource Utilities. His previous management roles included senior positions with both American Electric Power and IBM. Pablo also serves on the Global Advisory Board for the Harvard Business School and is a member of the Texas Advanced Nuclear Working Group. ERCOT manages the flow of electricity to over 27 million Texas customers and oversees one of the most unique power grids in the US. We were thrilled to hear Pablo's unique insights on the latest power developments in Texas and across the US. In our conversation, we explore ERCOT's collaboration with international and domestic grid operators to share best practices for managing intermittent resources and ensuring resource adequacy, ERCOT's unique operational advantages, and Texas's projected electricity demand growth by 2030, which equates to adding Germany's current electricity demand. We discuss the reliability risks associated with renewable energy integration, insights into the current state of battery storage capacity, and the need for Texas market design changes to better incentivize the building of more dispatchable power plants. Pablo shares details about the Texas Energy Fund's $5 billion allocation aimed at incentivizing up to 10 gigawatts of dispatchable power, economic hurdles for coal plants as well as combined-cycle gas plants under EPA regulations requiring carbon capture by the end of 2031, opportunities for nuclear energy development, and the lack of clear market pricing signals in ERCOT compared to capacity market spikes in PJM and MISO. We touch on how the new administration might approach power policy, how current federal regulations hinder power sector growth despite incentives for broader economic expansion, and more. We ended by asking Pablo for his predictions for what Texas's generation mix might look like in five years and for the future of ERCOT's connectivity with other grids. We covered a great deal of territory and can't thank Pablo enough for his insights into all these critical topics. Mike Bradley kicked off the show by highlighting that markets remain in “digestion” mode as they continue to react to Trump's Cabinet picks. Over the weekend, Trump nominated Scott Bessent for Secretary of Treasury and markets responded favorably (bond yields dropped) on Monday as many investors believe he'll be more balanced on the tariff front. However, Trump surprised markets a day later by vowing that he'll levy additional tariffs on China (10%) and new import tariffs (25%) on all Canadian & Mexican goods. On the crude oil market front, WTI traded sideways/slightly down over the past week (~$69/bbl) due to a potential ceasefire deal in the Middle East. He noted that the December 1st OPEC meeting will now be virtual. OPEC's leadership will likely look to extend current production curtailments for another three months to get them through the seasonally weak Q1 period. On the natural gas front, U.S. natural gas price in recent weeks has spiked from ~$3.00/MMBtu to ~$3.40/MMBtu due to a colder 6-10-day weather outlook. The real gas story is in Europe where natural gas price in recent weeks has spiked to ~$15/MMBtu due to an early spell of cold weather, lower LNG shipments and extremely low wind generation. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up just over 1.5% over the last week as they continue to digest Trump Cabinet picks and what policy priorities might be enacted on early in his Presidency. On the energy equity front, the Energy sector was one of the few S&P sectors down last week (~1.5%). He also noted a handful of Energy & Materials sector deals this past week and ended by discussing that the COP29 Conference in Baku c

Today we were honored to host Mayor Lori Blong of Midland. Lori is a proud Midland native and previously served on the Midland City Council and as Mayor Pro Tempore before being elected Mayor in 2022. In addition to her duties as Mayor, Lori is a Founder and Partner of Octane Energy. She began her career as an educator in the Permian Basin and has deep ties to the community. We were thrilled to hear her insights on the Midland energy sector and broader community. In our discussion, Lori shares data on Midland's demographics and consistent population growth, highlighting that the city's largest age groups are 0-10 and 30-40 years old. We touch on the influx of workers and families from across the US and the world, growing demand for retail and lifestyle amenities, and recent commercial and national defense developments at the Midland Air and Space Port, including the development of a high-speed corridor for supersonic and hypersonic testing. Lori shares how Midland is addressing worker shortages through partnerships with local universities, the city's pro-development attitude, her inspiration to run for Mayor, priorities in improving community education and healthcare, and navigating the complexities of political campaigning. We discuss Lori's working partnerships with Congressman Pfluger and Senator Sparks to secure federal and state support, major infrastructure and transportation projects in Midland and the Permian Basin, and the critical support that the Permian Strategic Partnership (website linked here) and private investments have provided to bolster infrastructure and community services. We also cover Midland's long-term water planning, the importance of reinvesting in Midland, the city's high GDP relative to its population, opportunities to leverage excess natural gas for power generation, the city's confidence in its economic resilience, and much more. We ended by asking Lori for her vision of Midland in ten years. As you will hear, Lori is incredibly passionate about helping her community and we greatly enjoyed the discussion. Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that the key word to describe market action right now is "digestion" as Trump begins nominating his Cabinet picks and investors begin to ponder how they might affect future policy. On the crude oil market front, WTI has traded sideways to slightly lower (~$69/bbl) this past week due to a surge in the U.S. dollar which is creating a short-term headwind for dollar denominated commodities. WTI prompt spread has moved into contango, signaling a loosening oil market. OPEC recently lowered its 2025 oil growth assumptions (again) which likely forces them at their December OPEC meeting to delay unwinding current production curtailments until sometime in Q1. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 was down a couple percent as markets were oversold prior to the election, jumped by ~4-5% post-election, and are now pulling back as Trump's equity market euphoria looks to be fading. He noted that broader equity markets will be laser focused on NVIDIA's results after the close on Wednesday, so expect pent-up market volatility as investors are hoping that Blackwell revenues are exceeding expectations and that the AI momentum trade is still intact. On the energy equity front, it was one of the few S&P sectors up last week (~1.5%) and energy investors seem to be very enthusiastic with Trump's picks for the Department of Interior (Doug Burgum) and the Department of Energy (Chris Wright). He ended by noting that a handful of SMR (nuclear equities) rallied 15-20% on expectations that the new Administration would be favorable to this technology. Jeff Tillery added his perspective and questions to the discussion. We hope you enjoy the conversation with Lori as much as we did. She was fabulous! Thanks to you all!

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Michelle Manook, CEO of FutureCoal, for an insightful discussion on coal from a global perspective – an important yet often overlooked topic. Michelle joined FutureCoal in 2019 and previously held senior roles at Orica, Archer Energy, Brockman Mining, and Woodside. As CEO, she leads FutureCoal's mission to support key players across the coal value chain and advocates for balanced and inclusive international energy policies that respect the sovereign rights of coal-producing and coal-consuming nations. We were delighted to visit with Michelle. We covered a lot of ground in our conversation, beginning with an overview of FutureCoal, the significance of their rebrand from the “World Coal Association,” and Michelle's path to the coal industry, driven by a commitment to the humanitarian aspects of energy access and poverty alleviation as well as a keen drive for a challenge. We discuss technological advancements in coal, including the improved efficiency and emissions control in modern coal plants compared to older facilities, coal's multifaceted role beyond power generation, and the need for balanced energy policies that give coal fair access to technology investment and funding. We explore potential outcomes from COP 29 for coal, the need to expand the definition of abatement to include any emissions reduction efforts, and the impact of High-Efficiency Low-Emissions (HELE) technology and improved energy efficiency as significant contributors to emissions reductions. We cover investment trends in coal, global coal dynamics, Michelle's views on coal's importance for national security and international competitiveness, and the investment case for sustainable coal technologies. Michelle also emphasizes the needs and aspirations of developing nations for equitable energy access. It was a wide-ranging discussion and we can't thank Michelle enough for sharing her time and insights with us. As you'll hear, Michelle references data from a few reports in our conversation. FutureCoal's report entitled “Clean Coal Technology in ASEAN: Balancing Equity, Security & Sustainability” is linked here and FutureCoal's report entitled “Addressing UN Sustainable Development Goals in the ASEAN Coal Value Chain” is linked here. Mike Bradley opened the conversation by noting that many markets have rallied since Trump's election as the 47th President of the United States. Since the election, the 10-year bond yield rose from ~4.25% to ~4.45% driven by concerns that Wednesday's CPI report could print hotter than expected and cause the FED to head towards a temporary rate cut pause. Interest rates and the US dollar look to be moving higher on a belief that Trump's trade policies (higher tariffs) and a push towards less regulations will lead to higher real growth and higher US deficits. On the crude oil market front, since the election, WTI has fallen roughly $4/bbl to ~$68/bbl due to optimism that Trump could quickly move towards peace negotiations in the Middle East & Ukraine. He noted that while Trump's slogan of “Drill Baby Drill” proved to be a good campaign slogan, the reality is that US producers are laser focused on capital discipline and shareholder returns and that's unlikely to change.  Mike further noted that some believe Trump could move to implement Iranian oil sanctions early in his term, which would be offset by ample OPEC spare capacity. On the broader equity market front, since the election the DJIA, S&P 500 & Nasdaq are all up ~4-5%, the Russell 2000 is up ~7% and Bitcoin is up ~30%. Broader equity markets are technical

Happy Veterans Day to all who served and Happy Remembrance Day for our British, Canadian, and Australian friends. Today (and every day), we thank you and your families for your service and sacrifice. With the election behind us and the transition of a new administration on the horizon, we brought together three esteemed friends of the firm and previous COBT guests for a Special Edition of COBT. We wanted to brainstorm with them what happens next in energy policy-making. We were honored to host Anne Bradbury, CEO of the American Exploration and Production Council (AXPC), Bill Flores, Vice Chairman of ERCOT, former Congressman, and Veriten Senior Advisor, and Maria Korsnick, CEO of the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI). Each of these leaders has been a strong advocate for energy in Washington and brings deep insight into the complexities of energy legislation. Arjun Murti, Brett Rampal and I were thrilled to join and hear their immediate reactions and perspectives on what the incoming administration could mean for the future of energy. In our discussion, we explore the implications of the Trump Administration for energy policy, expecting broadly that the new administration will focus on energy reliability, affordability and infrastructure. We discuss potential changes to the Inflation Reduction Act to make it more technology-agnostic and more supportive of dispatchable energy sources, including nuclear and natural gas. There was a lot of speculation about “leaving the carrots but getting rid of the sticks” and also “the use of a scalpel and not a sledgehammer.” Bill shares insights on critical Congressional dynamics, how to handle any potential obstacles the current administration may put in place before leaving office, and the importance for energy policymakers to work on areas of agreement across the aisle to ensure truly durable energy policies. Anne emphasizes that in terms of environmental regulations, the US oil and gas industry is willing and able to show that they are the cleanest system globally already, and that they are ready to meet heightened regulatory standards, but that these standards need to be resilient and realistic to avoid constant swings with each administration. Maria highlights federal policy that NEI is supporting to incentivize initial first-of-a-kind builds as well as needed policy reforms to strengthen grid capacity and streamline permitting. We go on to cover the potential influence of Elon Musk if he assumes a role in the new administration, the importance of ending the partisan divide in energy policy, the need to prioritize American energy dominance across both traditional and new energy technologies, the value of experienced career staff in DC to ensure effective policy implementation, and much more. Overall, we are feeling optimistic for American energy in the next administration as the change provides an opportunity to keep what's good but change what's not. There were many references in our discussion to “not throw the baby out with the bathwater.” We are immensely grateful to Anne, Bill and Maria for their friendship and for joining us. We hope you find the conversation as interesting and insightful as we did. God bless our veterans, and our best to you all!

Today we had the honor of hosting Senator John Cornyn of Texas, who has served in the US Senate since 2002 and is now in his fourth term. Senator Cornyn has been a steadfast advocate for Texas interests and supports policies that promote responsible domestic traditional energy production while exploring new energy sources to strengthen US energy independence. Senator Cornyn has held several key leadership roles including Republican Whip and currently serves on the Senate Finance, Intelligence, and Judiciary Committees. Before joining the Senate, Senator Cornyn served as a district judge, a member of the Texas Supreme Court and Texas Attorney General. We were thrilled to connect with Senator Cornyn for an election, energy and geopolitical focused discussion one week away from the 2024 Presidential Election. We begin by asking Senator Cornyn for his perspective on escalating international conflicts and global geopolitical tensions, including the Iran-Israel conflict, North Korea's involvement in Ukraine, and threats from Russia and China. We discuss the importance of robust US intelligence and deterrence to maintain global stability, the need for proactive US leadership in foreign conflicts, and the reality that “our holiday from history is over.” Senator Cornyn outlines opportunities and challenges in the coming lame duck session, key legislative actions, and Congressional priorities including national defense funding, tax policy, and the federal budget, as well as key Senate races and the potential for Republicans to retake the Senate. We explore America's energy potential, the strategic importance of US LNG to European allies, challenges with transmission and permitting for energy infrastructure, the evolution of US policy toward China, the possibility of permitting reform, and the merits of state versus federal power. We also touch on incentives for reshoring critical manufacturing to address supply chain vulnerabilities, national debt and budget priorities, and the critical importance of national unity despite political differences. It was a fantastic discussion, and we are very grateful to Senator Cornyn and his team for their continued efforts on behalf of the energy community. Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by highlighting that markets this week are increasingly focused on a handful of Big Tech Q3 earnings and next week's Presidential election. On the bond market front, bond traders continue to be perplexed that the 10yr bond yield has spiked from 3.6% back to 4.3% over the last month, which is a higher level than the 10yr was trading prior to the 50-basis point cut at the September 18th FOMC Meeting. He noted that bond traders seem to be betting that Trump will win the Presidency and that his promise of Chinese Tariff increases and significant Federal regulatory cuts might lead to higher “real” growth and higher deficits. On the crude oil market front, WTI had fallen roughly $5/bbl this week on a brief de-escalation in Mideast tensions and concerns that Chinese economic stimulus plans would disappoint. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 continues to post new highs. Big Tech stocks seem to be retaking market leadership given that the market-weighted S&P 500 Index is again outperforming the equal-weighted S&P 500 Index. On the energy equity front, lower oil prices are leading many energy companies to take a more cautious approach on their Q3 calls which is continuing to weigh on the entire sector. Arjun Murti emphasized that long-term macroeconomic trends are more influential than election outcomes alone, and that a balanced “all-of-the-above” approach to support maximizing traditional resource production and exports as well as new energy technologies is crucial not only for the US but for developing nations seeking diversified energy for geopolitical and economic stability. We hope you find today's discussion as interesting and insightful as we di

 Today we had the privilege of hosting Peter Lake, former Chairman of the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT). Peter was appointed by Governor Greg Abbott to stabilize and strengthen the Texas electrical grid following Winter Storm Uri in 2021. He concurrently served as a Board Member of ERCOT and concluded his term with the PUCT in June 2023. Previously, Peter chaired the Texas Water Development Board. Since leaving public office, Peter has served as an independent strategic advisor and technical consultant through his firm, Cardinal Rose. We were thrilled to welcome Peter to our offices in Houston for a discussion of power systems broadly and his incredible experience tackling the Texas grid problems after the tragic events of February 2021. In our conversation, Peter provides candid insights into the post Uri rebuilding experience and discusses how and why Governor Abbott reached out to him to take on this incredibly hard role. We discuss the challenge in regaining public trust following the crisis and the strategies required to rebuild confidence in ERCOT, his very productive partnership with interim ERCOT CEO Brad Jones, the decision-making process at PUCT and its impact on power systems, ERCOT's unique governance structure and its relationship with PUCT, and the changes implemented after the 2021 storm. Peter shares his views on managing through a crisis, the importance of uniting stakeholders to facilitate efficient decision-making, and the rapid progress Peter and his team made with support from the Texas Legislature on projects that had previously been delayed. We explore the actions needed to address grid reliability, the challenges posed by Texas's rapid power demand growth, the need to expand transmission and dispatchable energy resources, the critical balance between renewables and reliable backup power, the importance of market-oriented solutions, concerns with over-reliance on batteries, problems brewing now in other US grids, and the federal government's role in system reliability. Peter also touches on the close relationship between water management and energy, the potential for adopting incentive models to improve power reliability, and much more. We walked away with a deeper appreciation for the efforts made by Peter and the teams at PUCT and ERCOT in 2021 to stabilize the grid and are grateful to Peter for sharing his unique insights. As Texans, we are all personally thankful to Peter and everyone else who stepped in to an unbelievably hard situation after the storm to improve the grid in Texas.    Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by highlighting that this week looks to be starting out as a pretty slow and less volatile trading week for most markets. On the bond market front, over the last 4-5 weeks the 10yr bond yield has increased from ~3.6% up to ~4.2% due to a belief that the FED won't raise interest rates in 2024 as much as was previously expected. On the crude oil market front, WTI was up a couple dollars per barrel this week on talks of a further increase in Chinese stimulus. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 was down marginally this week after a significant runup over the past three months. Broader markets could trade sideways over the next couple of weeks as investors further digest the unexpected runup in interest rates, the beginning of Q3 earnings and the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election. On the energy equity front, a couple of oil service companies issued disappointing outlooks last week which weighed on the service industry. He also noted that this week's Q3 reporting would be peppered with a handful of electric utilities, mining companies, natural gas E&Ps and oil service companies. Jeff Tillery discussed the growing excitement in nuclear with major recent developments (Three Mile Island, tech offtake contracts, and tech company investments) but cautioned to stay mindful of potential challenges and realisti

Today we were delighted to welcome Dr. Carolyn Kissane, Associate Dean of Graduate Programs and Global Affairs at NYU's Center for Global Affairs. Dr. Kissane is a Lifetime Member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a Senior Fellow at the George H.W. Bush Foundation for US-China Relations, Co-Host of “The Clean Energy Revolution” Podcast, and Founding Director of NYU's Energy, Climate Justice, and Sustainability Lab. Carolyn earned her Ph.D. in Comparative Education and Political Science from Columbia University and has been with NYU since 2004. Her research focuses on energy, sustainability innovation and policy, and cybersecurity. We were thrilled to connect with Carolyn for an insightful discussion on energy and global affairs. In our conversation, Carolyn provides background on NYU's energy studies, its interdisciplinary approach, and the growing importance of understanding the connection between energy systems, economic security, and human security. Carolyn shares observations on the increasing focus on climate and energy security at the Council on Foreign Relations, especially with regards to trade and tariffs. We explore the changing dynamics of oil markets, the ineffectiveness of sanctions, the increase of rule-breaking in international trade, shifting student perceptions of energy, global energy dynamics and the U.S.'s competitive advantage due to its abundance of natural gas resources. We touch on Carolyn's experiences in Kazakhstan, the severity of the energy crisis in Europe and Germany's economic struggles, the difficulty of reversing these challenges due to regulatory and high energy costs, how bureaucratic challenges and regulatory barriers are slowing down development in Europe and the US, Javier Milei's political appeal, US energy competitiveness, and much more. We ended by asking Carolyn for her vision of climate policy leadership ten years from now. It was a broad-based discussion and we're thankful to Carolyn for sharing her time and unique insights. Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting broader equity market volatility, the beginning of Q3 Energy sector reporting, and observations regarding this week's plunge in crude oil price. On the broader equity market front, ASML Holding's stock priced plunged due to their semiconductor orders noticeably missing estimates which in turn pressured the “hot” Technology sector lower. Liberty Energy and SLB will be the first two oil service companies reporting Q3 results this week with investors focused on their NAM oil service activity & pricing outlook and international revenue guidance. On the crude oil front, WTI price plunged ~$5/bbl (~$70/bbl) this week due to three interrelated issues: Mideast supply concerns, a reduction in global oil demand estimates, and Brent oil traders recently repositioning themselves from a “net short” to a “net long” managed money futures trading position. Jeff Tillery added to Mike's comments and emphasized that the narrow range analysts are predicting for oil prices in 2025 is unlikely to be accurate and to consider the potential factors that could drive prices either higher or lower than consensus. We greatly enjoyed our global discussion with Carolyn today and hope you find it as interesting as we did. Our best to you all!

Today we had the opportunity to visit with Dr. David Spence, Chair in Natural Resources Law at the University of Texas and Author of “Climate of Contempt: How to Rescue the U.S. Energy Transition from Voter Partisanship.” Dr. Spence joined the University of Texas faculty in 1997 and his research focuses on the law and politics of energy regulation. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Duke University and serves as a professor of Business, Government & Society at the McCombs School of Business in addition to teaching at Texas Law. “Climate of Contempt” was recently published in August and addresses the politics and forces that have affected energy policy. We were thrilled to thrilled to explore the book's key themes and arguments with David. In our conversation, we discuss the various factors David has researched contributing to ineffective policymaking, the value of engaging in open and honest discussions across ideological lines, how social media and advocacy media influence policy understanding, the destructive effects of today's media landscape on comprehending complex issues, and issues with social media echo chambers. David shares some of the feedback he's received since publishing “Climate of Contempt,” the reluctance of political leaders to address the failings of their own party members, the role of natural gas in energy policy, and the benefits of being technologically agnostic. We touch on shifts in attitudes toward nuclear energy, the need for more discussions around risks and trade-offs with energy technology, growing global energy demand, the potential for technological innovation in energy, and how differences in energy and environmental policy influence where industries decide to locate their operations. We also cover the challenges of regulating energy markets, the counterproductive demonization of oil and gas, potential ways to encourage cross-sector collaboration between academia, government and the commercial sector, and more. For additional resources related to “Climate of Contempt,” please visit www.climateofcontempt.com. We greatly enjoyed the discussion with David and appreciate him sharing his time and insights with us. Mike Bradley opened the discussion by highlighting two areas, those being the recent surge in both U.S. bond yields as well as global crude oil prices. On the bond yield front, he discussed that despite the FED's 50-basis point interest rate cut three weeks ago, the 10-year U.S. bond yield has surged from ~3.65% to ~4.00% mostly due to hotter-than-expected recent economic data. He flagged that several important economic reports will be released this week (CPI, PPI & Consumer Sentiment) and that these reports could create some added bond and equity market volatility. Regarding crude oil, in the past week WTI price surged to over $77/bbl (~$9/bbl gain) due to concerns of whether Israel would attack Iranian nuclear sites and/or crude oil export terminals/refineries. Last week's news of a Chinese stimulus program also contributed to the surge in global oil prices, but one of the key reasons for the recent surge in oil price is a “short squeeze” which is an outgrowth of an extremely bearish trader positioning in crude oil futures (especially Brent). He also noted that on Tuesday, WTI price slid by over $3/bbl (~$74/bbl), as well as the price of several base metal commodities, on news that the Chinese government was holding back on additional economic stimulus spending. Jeff Tillery pointed out that while a stronger underlying economy is good for long-term energy demand, short-term price boosts from geopolitical turmoil may have a negative impact on stocks over time. Thank you again to David for joining and thanks to you all for your support and friendship!

We are excited to share this Special Edition COBT focused on the impact of the recent dockworkers' strike and its implications for the energy sector. As we send this out, you may have heard the strike has been suspended. It was and is a fascinating situation… and wait until you meet who we found to discuss the issues.   We were lucky enough to connect with Dr. Salvatore Mercogliano, Associate Professor of History at Campbell University. In addition to his role at Campbell, Dr. Mercogliano also serves as an Adjunct Professor with the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy. Dr. Mercogliano has an extensive background in shipping and maritime history, having previously served as a merchant mariner with the U.S. Navy's Military Sealift Command. He holds a Ph.D. in Military and Naval History from the University of Alabama and is also the host of “What is Going on With Shipping?” We were thrilled to hear Sal's unique insights on the dockworkers' strike and on the shipping world overall. One strong takeaway we had from the conversation with Sal is that shipping will be getting more expensive over the next decade for a number of reasons. Sal first provides key background for understanding why the strike happened, differences between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) on the West Coast and the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) on the East and Gulf Coast, and recent contract history for the ILWU and ILA. We discuss the post-COVID surge in profits for container liners and how it has been a key driver for the ILA's push for wage increases, the ILA's concerns with automation, fearing job losses similar to what the ILWU experienced on the West Coast after automation was introduced, and the broader resurgence of unions' power post-COVID across different industries. Sal shares his perspectives on the ILA's leadership and influence, the potential economic impact of prolonged strikes (had the strike continued or if it resumes January 15), the effects on energy and refined product transportation, and rising shipping costs due to new fuel regulations, aging fleets, limited shipyard capacity, and longer lead times for shipbuilding. We also explore the evolving global shipping market, government involvement in strikes, global shipping's critical role in the world economy, the cyclical nature of trade trends, the importance of maintaining open maritime routes for continued global trade, and much more. It was an absolutely fascinating discussion. After we hung up with Sal, we stumbled on many other issues to explore with Sal in the future (like the dark fleet that transports Russian oil for example). As you'll hear in the discussion, we reference our COBT episode with Captain John Konrad, CEO of gCaptain. The episode is linked here. Mike Bradley kicked us off with a quick update on two current events: the East & Gulf Coast longshoremen's strike and the escalating Middle East conflict. On the longshoremen strike front, he noted that equity markets haven't been overly concerned that this strike would extend beyond the weekend, but if it does, then equity markets will begin to dial in some equity risk premium early next week. Regarding crude oil, he highlighted that WTI price spiked ~$4/bbl (to ~$74/bbl) on Thursday after President Biden was asked by a reporter whether he would support Israel striking Iran's oil facilities and Biden responded that they're discussing it. Oil markets are beginning to dial in some modest risk premium due to uncertainty of whether Israel will attack Iranian nuclear sites and/or key Iranian crude oil export terminals & refineries. He also noted that a key reason for the current oil price spike was a hedge fund trading squeeze brought on by an extremely bearish crude oil trading setup. He ended by noting that oil traders are beginning to focus on the December 1st OPEC meeting and whethe

Today we were delighted to host Toni Stojcevski, General Manager of Project Sales & Development at Wärtsilä Marine alongside David Millar, Principal of Markets, Legislative, and Regulatory Policy at Wärtsilä Energy. For those of you who aren't familiar with Wärtsilä, the company is a famous Finnish provider of marine engines and also a large player in onshore power. Toni has served at Wärtsilä for over 20 years ago and specializes in marine engineering and business development, including medium speed combustion engines and alternative fuels. David is an economist who advocates for evidence-based energy policies that prioritize cost-effectiveness and reliability. He holds a Master of Environmental Management from Duke University and previously served as Managing Director of Resource Planning and Procurement Services at Ascend Analytics. We were delighted to connect with David and Toni and talk about Wärtsilä's unique angles on the world.   In our conversation, we discuss the critical role of shipping in the global economy and Wärtsilä's efforts to develop solutions that meet emissions targets, including the creation of engines that can use traditional fuels but also natural gas, methanol, ammonia, and hydrogen. Toni shares his insights on the evolution of fuel use in shipping, highlighting the global fleet's historical reliance on bunker fuel and how that has changed in recent years. Toni emphasizes the complexities and costs associated with transitioning to alternative fuels, as well as the technological challenges with new fuels, notably in fuel supply infrastructure, especially for hydrogen and ammonia. We explore the relative differences in different fuel prices and the impact of larger tank sizes on shipping costs and cargo capacity, whether existing fuels can become more efficient, and examine potential future shipping technologies such as marine batteries and micronuclear power. David provides background on Wärtsilä's power solutions including gas engines for peaking and balancing generation, the intricacies of using hydrogen as a long-duration storage medium and the infrastructure needed, as well as the cost of generating electricity with Wärtsilä's engines and how it compares to other generation methods. We also cover the role of modular and efficient energy technologies in reducing costs and risks for utilities and power producers. We circle back with Toni towards the end of the discussion to hit on Wärtsilä's development of carbon capture technology for vessels unable to switch to new fuels and cover the size and growth of the global merchant shipping fleet. We conclude by asking both David and Toni what they think the shipping and power energy mix might look like in ten years. For our COBT history buffs, we previously had the opportunity to host Karl Meeusen, Director of Markets, Legislative and Regulatory Policy at Wärtsilä (episode linked here). Mike Bradley opened the discussion by highlighting three key topics: the East & Gulf Coast dockworkers strike, escalating conflict in the Middle East, and the sharp decline in U.S. natural gas storage surplus. On the dockworkers strike, he noted it was the first one on the East Coast since 1977, with these ports handling half of all U.S. container shipments. Retailers are under pressure as investors assess potential supply chain disruptions during the holiday season and the US Presidential election ramifications of an extended strike. Regarding crude oil, WTI prices rose $3/bbl to $71/bbl due to increasing Middle East tensions following Iran's missile strike on Israel. Despite this, oil prices have been trading sideways, even with bearish Brent crude setups and news of a large Chinese stimulus plan. The upcoming OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting on October 2nd could bring mor

Many of you have likely noticed, as we have, some of the news coming out of Delaware about certain rulings, the debate around those rulings, and the subsequent debate around actions taken by the legislature to clarify Delaware law. As we've read about these developments, we were intrigued and turned to the team at Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz (WLRK) for their thoughts on these matters. We were extremely pleased to have Ryan McLeod, Partner, and Dan Neff, Partner and Member of the Executive Committee, join us for a far-ranging and intriguing discussion on these issues. Ryan joined WLRK in 2013 and specializes in representing corporations and directors in litigation involving mergers and acquisitions, proxy contests, corporate governance disputes, and class and derivative actions involving allegations of breach and fiduciary duty. He also serves as a Lecturer in Law at Columbia and has extensive experience litigating corporate matters in the Delaware Court of Chancery and the Delaware Supreme Court. Dan has over four decades of experience advising major companies in high-profile transactions and served as WLRK's Co-Chairman for 20 years through October 2023. He specializes in mergers and acquisitions, corporate governance, and securities law and has represented clients in a broad range of industries including energy, technology and telecom, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, manufacturing/industrials, retail/consumer products, gaming, and more. In our conversation, Ryan first provides perspective on Delaware's importance to corporate law and the large percentage of companies that are incorporated there. Ryan walks us through three specific legal rulings that prompted amendments in Delaware including the Twitter stockholder litigation, the Activision merger case, and a case involving contractual governance and shareholder veto rights. We discuss the significant and unique amount of public debate surrounding these amendments, the practical impact of Delaware rulings on corporate governance, particularly in activist settlements and private equity deals, and the implications for boards and corporate lawyers. We also touch on whether these developments might lead boards to become more cautious in decision-making, the historical context of Delaware appraisal cases, and changing complexities around CEO compensation. We explore the Caremark Doctrine's increasing relevance in corporate governance, the complexity of preparing board minutes to show transparency and thoroughness without over-disclosing, and emerging corporate governance risks. Ryan and Dan also share their insights on what sets Delaware law apart from other states, how companies manage external pressures from activism, the future of corporate governance, and much more. Thank you, Ryan and Dan, for sharing your insights and expertise with us all! We learned a tremendous amount. Mike Bradley kicked us off with a few updates. He noted that the FED's 50-basis point rate cut was initially received well, but since then, most markets have traded sideways. On the bond market front, the 10-year U.S. bond yield actually increased as the rate cut was mostly expected. He noted consensus around additional rate cuts in 2024 and 2025. He also noted that the 2yr/10yr bond yield spread widened to ~20-basis points after being inverted for the past two-plus years. On crude oil, WTI price has traded sideways this week (~$71/bbl) and Mike discussed several positive developments which could temporarily be supporting crude oil prices including a Chinese stimulus program, continued historic “net short” length in Brent futures and growing Mideast conflict. OPEC published its annual World Oil Outlook this week (linked here) and again raised its global oil demand estimates (~113mmbpd for 2030 & ~120mmbpd for 2050) which is well above the view of many others. He then flagged that this week is Climate Week in N

Today we were delighted to welcome back our good friend Roger Pielke Jr. for an engaging discussion on the evolving climate policy and energy landscape. Roger is the author of “The Honest Broker” on Substack which reaches 30,000+ subscribers across 153 countries. He is a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute where he focuses on science and technology policy, the politicization of science, government science advice, and energy and climate. Since 2001, Roger has served as a professor in the Environmental Studies department at the University of Colorado Boulder and will retire from academia at the end of 2024. We last hosted Roger on COBT on September 29, 2023 (episode linked here) and were excited to get him back to hear his latest insights on how the world has changed in the past year, especially in the climate community. Roger joined us from Tokyo, where he is speaking at a Symposium hosted by the University of Tokyo on Japanese energy strategy and climate policies. In our conversation, we discuss how 2023 so far has been one of the most inaccurate in seasonal hurricane forecasting history with fewer named storms than predicted, the history of hurricane forecasting, and the groups and organizations responsible for hurricane season predictions. Roger shares his perspectives on the complexity of climate modeling and its limitations, human impact on climate and the importance of focusing on risk management rather than debating the future, and Japan's energy landscape and how it's a serious national security issue for the country. We explore the debate within the climate science community about the accuracy and relevance of current climate scenarios, the slower pace of climate modeling with updates every 10-20 years, the importance of understanding historical climate variability to better prepare for the future, and critical population assumptions in climate models. We touch on the need for improved communication in climate science and energy policy, future trends for climate science, Roger's diverse audience, and much more. It was a fascinating discussion and we greatly appreciate Roger helping us understand this complex field better. Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting that most markets so far this week (bonds, commodities, currencies & equities) were focused on Wednesday's FOMC Rate Decision Meeting (1pm CST). On the bond market front, the 10-year U.S. bond yield was unchanged this week (~3.65%). He noted that odds last week had favored a 25-basis point interest rate cut but that consensus had shifted this week to a 50-basis point cut. He further noted (excluding 2001 & 2007 recessions) that the S&P 500 has typically rallied a little over 10% in the 6-months following the beginning of interest rate cuts. On the crude oil front, WTI surged back above $71/bbl after recently bouncing off a strong technical trading support level of $65/bbl. Mike shared a chart that exhibited Brent Oil Managed Money Net Long Contracts vs Brent Oil Price and noted that this was the first time, in the last 10-15 years, that Managed Money was actually “net short” Brent oil future contracts. This signifies that oil traders are extremely bearish Brent oil futures for what they see as a slowing global economy, surging non-OPEC oil production growth and oversupplied global oil S/D in early 2025. He further noted that this “net short” position was larger than it was in April 2020 (Brent price ~$20/bbl) which also seems to signal that oil traders today aren't fearful that OPEC can or will curtail additional barrels (like in previous go-arounds) to balance global crude oil markets. Brett Rampal highlighted this week's announcement of the NRC's issuance of a construction permit for the Natura Resources Molden Salt Reactor (Natura MSR-1) at Abilene Christian University, marking the first liquid salt fueled reactor licensed by

Today we had the pleasure of hosting the team from Cornerstone Government Affairs for an engaging discussion on energy policy and the upcoming US Presidential Election with Jack Belcher, Principal, John Sandell, Principal, and Sarah Venuto, Principal and Counsel. Cornerstone is an independent bipartisan consulting firm specializing in federal and state government relations, public affairs, political and grant consulting, and business advisory services. Jack, John and Sarah are seasoned experts in navigating the complexities of Washington DC. Jack has over 30 years of experience in energy and energy policy and previously held roles as Manager of Regulatory Affairs and Policy at Shell and Staff Director for the US House Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources. John is an expert in tax policy and formerly served the members of the US House Committee on Ways and Means. Sarah previously served as Director of the Office of External Affairs at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Senior Advisor and Chief Counsel to Senator Joe Manchin, and Democratic Staff Director for the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. We were thrilled to connect with the Cornerstone team to explore this timely and important topic. Our conversation centered on a report Cornerstone published entitled “A Guide to Forecasting Energy Policy In The Next White House: Trump V. Harris” (linked here). Jack first provides background on Cornerstone's history and growth into the largest independent government relations firm in DC. We touch on the implications of the Chevron Deference case on regulatory agencies, its significance for future energy policy and regulation, and how it will impact Congress and the need for additional technical expertise there. We cover the complexities of Presidential Administration changes and challenges of transitioning political appointments, the future of the Inflation Reduction Act under different administrations, and efforts to streamline permitting and infrastructure development. Jack, John and Sarah offer their insights on how a Trump or Harris administration might approach energy policy and rising energy prices for businesses and consumers. We discuss areas of bipartisan support including nuclear energy, tariffs, alternative fuels, and competition with China, how the next administration might balance state-level initiatives with national policy, the upcoming 2025 Tax Debate led by the Ways and Means Committee, and much more. It was an insightful discussion and we want to thank Jack, John and Sarah for sharing their perspectives and time with us on a busy day in DC. Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting that broader equity markets were down Tuesday driven by JPMorgan Chase's cautious comments. In the bond market, the 10-year U.S. bond yield traded at ~3.65, down 20-30bps in recent weeks. The U.S. 2yr/10yr yield bond spread flipped back to positive after two years of inversion, this type of flip after a lengthy period of backwardation tends to precede recessions. He noted the importance of this week's economic reports with August CPI & PPI and Initial Jobless Claims reporting over the next couple of days. On crude oil, he also shared a chart of the WTI crude oil curve and noted that the curve structure had flattened out through 2035, primarily due to concerns over global/China oil demand after being in steep backwardation over the prior 3mo, 6mo & 12mo periods. He concluded by mentioning that crude oil prices were technically oversold, with traders remaining bearish but waiting for significant changes in global oil demand to unwind net short bets. Jeff Tillery built on Mike's comments and noted the demand concerns and OPEC's spare capacity reducing upside optionality for long-term investors. Brett Rampal highlighted a significant

We are thrilled to share this COBT episode recorded live from Plant Vogtle featuring John Williams, Senior Vice President of Technical Services and External Affairs at Southern Nuclear, John Kotek, Senior Vice President of Policy Development and Public Affairs at the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), and Bill Flores, Vice Chairman of ERCOT and Veriten Senior Advisor. Brett Rampal and I had the pleasure of traveling to Waynesboro, GA for an exciting tour of Vogtle to see the completed units before sitting down with John Williams, John Kotek and Bill Flores for their perspectives on Vogtle and the broader nuclear energy landscape in the US and globally. Vogtle is the largest generator of clean energy in the US and is jointly owned by Georgia Power, Oglethorpe Power Corporation, the Municipal Electric Authority of Georgia and Dalton Utilities. The plant was named after Alvin Vogtle, a past Chairman, President and CEO of Southern Company and World War II veteran. The film “The Great Escape” was based in part on Mr. Vogtle's courageous wartime experiences (additional history linked here). In our conversation, John Williams first shares key background on Units 3 and 4 and how they've improved upon Units 1 and 2 in terms of technological advancements and safety features. We discuss the massive project of constructing Units 3 and 4, which involved a workforce of over 11,000 on-site employees, the economic benefits of nuclear facilities, the costs associated with building and operating nuclear plants, the US and global outlook for constructing additional AP1000 units, and the impact of nuclear energy development in the US, as well as its broader implications for global energy security. We touch on the obstacles faced during the construction of Vogtle 3 and 4 including regulatory challenges, the Fukushima incident in Japan, the bankruptcy of Westinghouse in 2017, and the impact of COVID-19 in 2020. In building the new units, Southern Company also faced the difficulty of finding an experienced workforce and re-creating a nuclear supply chain with Units 3 and 4 being the first new build nuclear plants in the US in 30 years. The scale of the project and site really struck us and John Williams put that into perspective when he pointed out that the concrete used for the expansion could lay a sidewalk from Waynesboro to Seattle and back. We also cover the safety and security of the facility, concerns over losing expertise as nuclear workers move to other industries with no other nuclear plants currently being built in the US, nuclear waste management, the growing appeal of nuclear energy careers to students, and much more. We were highly impressed with the entire experience and are excited to share our findings with you. Mike Bradley wasn't able to join the Vogtle field trip but passed along his market observations. He noted that markets (bonds, commodities and equities) all traded lower on Tuesday. From a broader equity market standpoint, the S&P 500 (-2.2%) and Nasdaq (-3.2%) were both pressured lower on Tuesday due to a substantial pullback in the S&P Technology sector (-4.4%) and shares of NVIDIA (-9.5%). Additional pressure could befall the S&P 500 given that September is historically the “worst” performing month for the S&P 500 by far, with the average September decline (over the last five years) being just over 4%. From a crude oil standpoint, WTI price traded down ~$3.25/bbl (closing at ~$70.25/bbl) on news that Libya was looking to restart ~0.5mmbpd of crude oil exports that had been temporarily curtailed. Goldman Sachs downgraded its long-held bullish copper call (mostly due to signs of slowing Chinese copper demand), which is also one of the main culprits that has been hanging over crude oil markets slowing global oil demand concerns. Given that this week's COBT focus was on Vogtle, he rounded

We were honored this week to welcome Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison and John Rutherford for this Special Edition COBT. Senator Hutchison is a Founding Member of the KBH Energy Center at the University of Texas and has had a distinguished career in both the public and private sectors, including serving as the US Ambassador to NATO.  We previously had the pleasure of hosting Senator Hutchison on COBT in November 2023 (episode linked here). John is an expert energy and finance executive and serves on the KBH Energy Center Executive Council in addition to board positions with Enterprise Products Partners and TD Williamson. Recently, Governor Abbott appointed John to the Teacher Retirement System of Texas Board of Trustees. We were excited to speak with Senator Hutchison and John about the KBH Energy Center's upcoming Symposium in September and also mix in some observations about the current world. This year's KBH Energy Center Symposium theme is “Energizing Tomorrow – Tackling Today's Energy Challenges while Preparing for the Future.” The event will take place on Friday, September 13 in Austin. In our conversation, Senator Hutchison and John touch on the Symposium's history and the KBH Energy Center's unique structure, collaborating with the business, law, engineering, and soon geosciences schools at the University of Texas. We discuss the Symposium's agenda (linked here) with panels focused on the evolution of LNG, emerging energy trends, technology, AI, energy storage, and more. As you'll hear, the Symposium is nearing capacity but there is still room to attend. Registration details can be found linked here. While discussing the history of the KBH Energy Center as well as the agenda for the Symposium, we also found time to discuss Senator Hutchison's experience as the Ambassador to NATO, how critical energy is to the world economy, and some of her thoughts on the war in Ukraine. As you will hear, her direct experience with Putin informs all her judgements. We are excited for what promises to be a fantastic Symposium and greatly appreciate Senator Hutchison and John for joining us. We hope you enjoy the discussion and that you'll consider attending the Symposium. We also hope you have a great Labor Day weekend and enjoy this last weekend of summer. Our best to you all!

Today we were delighted to welcome our good friend Bill Von Gonten, Founder and CEO of W.D. Von Gonten Engineering (WDVGE). Bill is a renowned oil and gas expert and entrepreneur. He founded W.D. Von Gonten & Co. in 1995, pioneering the volumetric assessment of US gas shales. In 2013, Bill established W.D. Von Gonten Laboratories, a core testing facility specializing in unconventional resources, data science and frac modeling. In 2022, these entities were combined to form WDVGE, which later partnered with National Energy Services Reunited Corporation to expand WDVGE's services to the Middle East and North Africa. Today, WDVGE operates in nearly 15 countries and has experience in every oil and gas basin worldwide. We were thrilled to host Bill for a discussion focused on the Vaca Muerta shale play and Argentina's broader energy landscape. In our discussion, Bill provides an overview of the Vaca Muerta, sharing his history and involvement with development efforts in the region. We discuss the unique characteristics of the shale play, the economic and logistical challenges of developing the Vaca Muerta, and comparative data that highlights its potential to surpass the Eagle Ford with its size, pressure and reservoir quality. Bill offers his perspective on geopolitical and economic considerations in Argentina, the future potential of the Vaca Muerta, including increased production and export capabilities, and its potential impact on the global oil and gas market through LNG and oil exports. We discuss people resources and industry infrastructure in Argentina, financial models for development, Argentina's pro-oil and gas stance, the development of oil and gas infrastructure by midstream companies, economic opportunities for Argentina, other global opportunities for unconventional oil and gas development along with their challenges, and much more. Bill's presentation slides from the discussion are linked here. It was a fascinating conversation and we sincerely thank Bill for sharing his time and insights with us today. You may recall we had an episode of COBT focused on President Javier Milei's election and the changing politics of Argentina. The discussion featured Fernando Oris de Roa, Former Ambassador of Argentina to the United States and is linked here. Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting that Fed Chairman Powell indicated last Friday “the time had come for policy to adjust” and “his confidence had grown that inflation was on a sustainable path back to two percent.” That interest rate policy pivot gave the green light for the FED to begin cutting interest rates at their mid-September FOMC meeting. On the broader equity market front, Mike shared investors are totally focused on NVIDIA's quarterly results (after the close on Wednesday) and that consensus is positioned for another beat and raise. He noted that the bar is high, and if they fail to clear it, AI & Tech stocks could take a temporary breather and the Russell 2000 and other S&P sectors could take an equity leadership role. On the energy equity front, ExxonMobil released its Global Outlook to 2050 this week (linked here). He noted a few key takeaways from the report including oil & natural gas will make up >50% of the world's energy mix in 2050 and a plateau in oil demand beyond 2030, remaining above 100mmbpd through 2050. He ended by highlighting Argentinian debt and equity performance since Javier Milei was elected President and ended with some Vaca Muerta shale stats (current and future potential). Todd Scruggs flagged a WSJ article reporting on the planned restart of the decommissioned P

We are thrilled to bring you this Special Edition COBT, featuring an exciting preview of the upcoming Houston Energy and Climate Startup Week taking place from September 9th – 13th. We had the pleasure of visiting with the event's key organizers including Jane Stricker, Senior VP Energy Transition and Executive Director of the Houston Energy Transition Initiative (HETI), Brad Burke, Executive Director of the Rice Alliance for Technology and Entrepreneurship, Dale Winger, Managing Director of Halliburton Labs, and Timmeko Moore Love, Houston General Manager and Senior Vice President of Greentown Labs. Each of these leaders has played a pivotal role in fostering Houston's energy and technology community and we were delighted to have them join us. Houston Energy and Climate Startup Week will bring together leading venture capital investors, industry leaders, and startups in the energy and climate sectors to showcase innovative companies and technologies that are shaping the future of energy. In our conversation, the group provides an overview of the event and the key players involved, the vision behind the event and collaboration among various organizations in fostering technological advancements, a detailed breakdown of the week's activities including a block party, industry leadership gatherings, investor speed networking with the Rice Alliance, Halliburton Labs Finalist Pitch Day, and the Greentown Labs Climate Impact Awards Gala to note a few. As you will hear, multiple organizations are planning private gatherings around the week's events. We also hear from each organization on their latest developments and discuss Houston's energy and climate tech ecosystem broadly. A detailed schedule and registration details for the Houston Energy and Climate Week is linked here. A special thanks to Jane, Brad, Dale and Timmeko for joining. We hope to see you all in Houston in a few weeks!

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Samantha Dart, Head of Global Natural Gas Research at Goldman Sachs. Samantha first joined Goldman Sachs in 2006 as an energy strategist and returned to the firm in 2018. Between her tenures at Goldman Sachs, she served as Global Head of Gas and Power Research at Noble Group and as Head of Gas & Power Research at Mercuria Energy America. Samantha specializes in global natural gas fundamentals research and marketing and holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Chicago. We were thrilled to hear Samantha's unique insights on the latest developments in the US and European natural gas and LNG markets. In our conversation, Samantha shares her perspective on how she sees global gas markets evolving, the potential risks and opportunities for US natural gas producers given the expected increase in global LNG capacity, and an expected significant LNG capacity jump beginning in 2026. We explore the future price of US natural gas in 2030, how power demand from LNG expansion, data centers, and other needs will grow demand, how production growth might change locations and of course influence prices, as well as what risks she sees to an otherwise relatively stable $4 to $5 mmbtu long-term outlook. We discuss the potential price impacts of increased production and capacity, how bottlenecks could drive prices up, the role that Asia and Europe will play in absorbing the increased LNG supply, and current and near-term dynamics in the global gas market including Europe's role in gas demand and the intricacies surrounding Russian gas. Samantha emphasizes the importance of sustained low prices to make gas a stronger part of global infrastructure growth, European industrial demand and the interaction between gas and coal prices, the future of the LNG market, and global acceptance and use of natural gas. We had a hard time ending the discussion and wrapped by asking Samantha for her views on natural gas in the mid-2030s. It was great fun to discuss the global gas world with a fellow gas enthusiast. Thanks to Samantha for joining! Mike Bradley kicked off today's discussion by highlighting that this will be an important economic reporting week with both the FOMC Meeting Minutes and the Payroll Revisions (~300-400k downward revisions expected) reports being released on Wednesday. He also noted that the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium will be held on Friday and will be watched closely to see whether Chairman Powell continues with a dovish tone and signals whether a September interest rate cut is still likely. On the crude oil front, WTI price this week has traded down to ~$74/bbl due to lessening concern with an Iranian/Israeli “war premium” and rising concern with Chinese 2H'24 oil growth estimates being revised lower. On the natural gas front, he flagged a handful of key stats, including U.S. & European spot gas prices, U.S. & European gas storage surpluses, and Lower-48 gas production that continues to be stuck in the 101-102bcfd range. He noted ~2bcfd of gas production curtailment announcements from E&P's Q2 calls but clarified that these gas curtailments aren't completely evident yet due to continued efficiencies and could become more evident in coming months. Todd Scruggs shared his thoughts on a recent McKinsey report (linked here) that showed the significant scale of net-zero targets (including a scenario that envisions deploying one billion EVs and 35 terawatts of low-emission power generation by 2050), reinforcing that natural gas will remain a critical bridge fuel for a long time ahead. Thanks again to Samantha for sharing her time and perspectives with us today. She was fabulous. And as usual, thanks much to you all!

Today we were thrilled to welcome back Erik Milito, President of the National Ocean Industries Association (NOIA). Erik has served as President of NOIA since 2019 following 17 years in several leadership roles at the American Petroleum Institute and prior experience as an attorney in the Solicitor's Office of the US Department of the Interior. Erik served on active duty in the US Army as a Judge Advocate from 1995 to 2000 and continued his service in the US Army Reserve from 2000 to 2004. NOIA's mission is to advance and promote the interests of the offshore oil, gas, wind and ocean minerals industries. We last hosted Erik on COBT in April 2021 (episode linked here) and were excited to reconnect for an update on offshore activity. In the discussion, Erik provides an overview of the NOIA's role to promote favorable policies related to offshore leasing, permitting, and regulation covering all flavors of energy including oil and gas, wind, carbon capture and storage and minerals. We start the conversation with Erik reminding us of the importance of the Gulf of Mexico as a booming region for the country and then dig into the challenges of offshore wind as an emerging sector. We cover the fascinating contrast of lease sales in the current administration compared to historical numbers. As the episode title mentions, this will be the first year since 1958 without a single federal offshore lease sale. We touch on advances in technology as current operations explore deeper depths / higher pressures in recent years, and we dig into how Erik sees the offshore wind industry developing from the services standpoint over the next couple of years. We also cover the complex issues around insurance and decommissioning platforms. We move on to discuss the positive relationship with the fishing industry and the significant role that the coastal state governments play in the world of the NOIA. Erik shares his perspective on Washington DC, the current climate given the election, and his sense of the public's mood and attitude towards the various sources of energy that the NOIA is involved in. We wrap up the discussion by getting Erik's thoughts on the progress of carbon capture over the last few years and the slower pace of offshore versus onshore CO2 projects and he urges that more progress would be possible with the cooperation of the government around permitting and regulatory support. We end the discussion with the areas that Erik is most optimistic about for the NOIA's membership which includes opportunities in the Gulf of Mexico.  It was a fantastic conversation. Thanks to Erik for joining us! Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting that trading in markets last week could be summed up briefly in two words: “volatility & reversal”. On the bond market, he highlighted that the 10-year bond yield was trading modestly lower due to a cooler-than-expected PPI. He also noted that this was a heavy economic reporting week with July CPI set to report on Wednesday and Initial Jobless Claims & Retail Sales on Thursday. On crude oil, he highlighted that WTI price was down ~$2/bbl. on Tuesday due to monthly reports from the IEA & OPEC showing minor 2024 demand reductions. He noted that despite these two demand datapoints that WTI still rebounded by ~$6/bbl. over the 5+ trading days due to improving technicals (WTI price back above its 50/100 day moving averages) and growing supply concerns (potential Iranian retaliation against Israel & Ukrainian incursion into Russia). He rounded out the conversation by highlighting that 3mo rolling forward copper prices have declined over the last 4-5 weeks (~$10.5k/MT down to ~$9k/MT) due to continued global demand concerns and elevated LME Copper inventories. He also noted that copper prices were getting bid up this week due to a workers s

For today's discussion, we were pleased to host Julia Weller, Principal at Energy Law International. Julia has worked in electricity and natural gas regulation and transactions for over 30 years. She served at both Hunton & Williams and Pierce Atwood before starting Energy Law International in 2017. Energy Law International advises governments, private investors, international finance institutions and electricity transmission system operators across Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, the MENA Region and Sub-Saharan Africa on energy market reforms and provides support to institutions seeking to invest in emerging energy markets. We were thrilled to visit with Julia and gain valuable insights into the international energy law landscape. We first became connected with Julia after she recently published a very interesting article on 2024 power deregulation in Israel that caught our eye (linked here). In our conversation, Julia first shares how she started her career helping countries with energy reforms after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the beginning of US/Western efforts to wean those countries from their dependence on Russian energy. Sound familiar? We discuss the missed opportunity in integrating the then struggling Russia into the global community, Energy Law International's work to help countries improve legal systems for safer investments and introduce capitalist concepts, the increasing significance of climate change in legal/regulatory reforms and emerging markets, energy market reforms in Israel, and the stability and structure of Israel's power market. We explore some of the key topics from Julia's recent article on Israel, Israel's historical need for self-reliance broadly, lessons from European countries focusing on renewable energy ahead of reliability and affordability, introducing competition in energy markets, and examples of market reform success. We ended by asking Julia for her vision of the energy world in ten years and her response was “a complete course correction.” It was a fascinating discussion. Julia's answer to the 10-year question was quite direct and is linked here. Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that prior to this week, U.S. equity markets could best be summed up in one word: “rotation” (out of S&P 500/Big Tech and into the Russell 2000). Global markets so far this week could be best defined as “volatility.” Over the last year, the S&P Volatility Index (VIX) had traded in a very tight range, but on Monday, it spiked to a 4-year intra-day high (2020 Covid Pandemic levels) before closing Tuesday at levels just above its recent trading range. So far this week, there's been a substantial spike in the VIX, a plunge in Bitcoin, a temporary blowout in the Yen Carry trade, and a historical % plunge in the Nikkei Index. On the bond market front, the 10-year U.S. bond yield easily blew through 4.0% (~3.7%). Some were calling for the FED to implement an emergency interest rate cut which would be extremely counterproductive as in Mike's view it would signal that the FED was behind the curve (and really worried) and could easily lead to an equity market plunge. On the crude oil front, WTI price continued to be pressured because of lack of technical trading support (under 50/100/200 moving averages) and growing global demand fears. Crude oil contract length over the last few weeks has gone from “net long” to neutral, and traders could push it to “net short,” but that's largely dependent on the magnitude of Iranian retaliation against Israel in the near future. Mike ended by noting that this type of volatility is why energy companies need to continue pursuing pristine balance sheets which will allow them to be oppor

Today we were pleased to host Gerald Kepes, President of Competitive Energy Strategies, and Sudan Maccio, Chief Legal Counsel of PetroTal, for a discussion focused on Venezuelan politics, energy and economics. Jerry has over 40 years of experience as a consultant and petroleum geologist and is a regular contributor to Al-Monitor on the geopolitics of energy in the Middle East and North Africa. Sudan started his career at PDVSA and brings over 30 years of extensive legal experience in global energy across legal, commercial, and leadership roles. We were thrilled to bring Jerry and Sudan together to discuss the recent Venezuelan election. In our conversation, Jerry and Sudan provide an overview of the recent election and the country's opposition to President Maduro's claimed victory. We discuss the current situation on the ground with ongoing protests, reactions from neighboring countries, the refugee crisis, how the military has been corrupted to support the ruling party and the potential for shifts in loyalty, and how the crisis is influencing global markets. We explore other geopolitical crises to understand potential strategy and outcomes, the possibilities and implications of foreign intervention, and influence from outside actors including Cuba, China, Russia, Iran and even Hezbollah. We also examine the role of the US in potentially intervening, possible outcomes, long-term implications, and much more. We ended by discussing how we can help the citizens of Venezuela and amplify their humanitarian needs. It was an enlightening discussion, and we are thankful to Jerry and Sudan for sharing their insights with us all. Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting that U.S. markets, so far this week, are mostly in churn-mode and laser focused on Wednesday's FOMC Rate Decision Meeting. Bond traders expect the FED to leave interest rates unchanged but are hopeful Chairman Powell will indicate that the FED could be positioned, as early as September, to cut interest rates. WTI price has moved lower over the last few weeks due to growing fundamental concerns with 2H'24 oil demand (mostly slowing Chinese demand) but has plunged this week to ~$75/bbl mostly due to “technical” factors (Brent & WTI) breaking through 50/100/200 day moving averages which is leading to an unwind of “net” long interest in the crude complex. On the broader market front, he noted a continued rotation of AI/Big Tech names into the Russell 2000 due to a growing bet that the FED will be signaling a looser interest rate policy. The recent equity rotation could quickly unwind if the FED doesn't signal a looser interest rate policy at the upcoming FOMC meeting. He also noted Q2 reporting up to this point has been dominated by Oil Services and natural-gas levered E&Ps but is now broadening out to all energy subsectors. He flagged a few key themes coming from Q2 calls including lower onshore oil service activity levels, a continuation of natural gas curtailments, and U.S. refiners highlighting that weaker refining cracks are resulting in global refining run cuts. Jeff Tillery also joined and added his perspective and inquiries to the discussion. We hope you find the discussion as insightful as we did. Our thoughts and prayers are with the Venezuelan people and we are hopeful for a peaceful and democratic resolution. Our best to you all. Thank you for your support and friendship!

Today we had the pleasure of hosting our good friend Dr. David Gattie, Associate Professor of Engineering at the University of Georgia. In addition to his role in the College of Engineering, David is a Senior Fellow at the University's Center for International Trade and Security. David has a robust background including 18 years at the University of Georgia and 15 years in the energy private sector across production engineering, energy services engineering, and environmental engineering. His research focuses on the electric power sector, with an emphasis on comprehensive energy policy and integrated resource planning for overall energy and economic security, as well as national security. We were thrilled to visit with David. In our discussion, David provides an overview of Georgia's unique energy landscape and power generation focus. He explains Georgia's approach to long-term energy planning through integrated resource plans mandated every three years, the structure of Georgia's energy sector, the role of the Public Service Commission, and the pivotal role of nuclear energy in the state's long-term energy strategy. We explore Georgia's choice to maintain a regulated market rather than deregulating, the effectiveness of various market systems, trends in regulated versus deregulated markets, and the potential risks of an energy transition that neglects national security and industrial competitiveness. David also discusses the Center for International Trade and Security's efforts, including training students to become strategic thinkers with expertise in nuclear technology and energy security, as well as collaborating with key organizations and experts in the field. We cover the role of trade in maintaining global stability and preventing conflicts, the expected increase in electricity demand, commercial viability and government involvement in nuclear development, optimism for realistic energy policies, and more. As you'll hear, it was a meaty conversation and David was a fantastic guest with which to explore these important topics. David's full presentation including the slides referenced in our discussion is linked here. For additional reading, David's recent report entitled “Competitive Advantage as a National Security Objective for US Civilian Nuclear Power Policy” is linked here. Additionally, if you are interested in reading the book David recommends during the show, “The Lessons of Tragedy” is linked here. Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting that it's been a wild week for Presidential politics, which is introducing some added uncertainty to global markets. He noted there could be some increased volatility in the bond market at week's end when Consumer Confidence and the PCE deflator are set to report. On the crude oil front, WTI price has plunged by ~$2.50/bbl (~$77.50/bbl) so far this week due to WTI price breaking through its 50/100/200 day moving averages and growing concern that Chinese commodity demand is slowing. On the energy equity front, Q2 reporting started last week and was skewed towards Oil Services. This week will also be heavy Oil Services but will also be broadening out to gas-levered E&Ps, Canadian E&Ps, Miners, Euro Oil Majors, Refiners and Electric Utilities. He also noted that equity investors will be paying a lot of attention to gas-levered E&P calls this week to get a sense of how they're thinking about 2H'24/2025 gas price levels/direction and how that might influence their 2H'24 capex/guidance plans. Jeff Tillery added to Mike's comments on oilfield services earnin

Today we had the honor of hosting former Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana. Senator Landrieu served for three terms from 1997 to 2015 and chaired the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, the Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee and the Homeland Security Appropriations Committee. She also served on the Armed Forces Committee. During her time in Washington, Senator Landrieu gained a reputation for working across the aisle on important energy and other national priorities. Currently, Senator Landrieu is Co-Chair of Natural Allies, a coalition of stakeholders that recognize the vital role natural gas plays in the energy mix to meet carbon reduction goals. We were thrilled to visit with Senator Landrieu. In our conversation we discuss how Louisiana's industrial base relies heavily on energy production and consumption, the historical bipartisanship in the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, how geography influences people's understanding and views on energy issues, the role of natural gas in reducing emissions, and why nuclear energy has bipartisan support. Senator Landrieu shares background on her role at Natural Allies and the group's focus on supporting US natural gas, the need to educate the public on the economic benefit of open markets particularly for US exports, finding ways to help countries like China and India reduce their reliance on coal, why the Senator disagreed with the Biden Administration's LNG permitting pause, and broadly the need for pragmatic, bipartisan energy and climate solutions. We explore SPR usage and levels, the status of permitting reform with significant delays expected until after the Presidential Election, finding practical solutions to reduce emissions and grow the economy through building infrastructure faster, and much more. It was a fantastic conversation and we are very grateful to Senator Landrieu for sharing her time and valuable insights with us all. She calls it like she sees it and is a very refreshing centrist voice. Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that 10-year bond yields continued their recent plunge after last week's cooler than expected CPI report and currently trade at ~4.15%. WTI price is trading at ~$81/bbl and has been stuck in a tight trading range ($80-$83/bbl) for the last several weeks. Crude oil traders are focused on global demand and are growing concerned with slowing global economic growth, especially China. U.S. natural gas continued its recent plunge and trades at ~$2.15/Mcf, despite Hurricane Beryl temporarily curtailing 1.7-1.8bcfd from Freeport LNG. He noted that U.S. natural gas production has rebounded back above 101bcfd and remains problematic given natural gas storage levels that are ~18% above normal. He discussed that the main word to describe broader equity market trading action this last week is “rotation.” Big 6 (AI & Tech equities) and broader equity indices like the S&P 500 & Nasdaq are significantly underperforming smaller-cap indices like the Russell 2000, which are perceived to be bigger beneficiaries of lower future inflation/interest rates. He ended by noting that Q2 Energy sector reporting begins this week with both pipelines (KMI) and oil services (LBRT, HAL & SLB) reporting. Arjun Murti shared his thoughts on the need for a diverse energy portfolio to meet global demands, the roles of the US and Canada as key players in both traditional and new energy markets, the unnecessary partisan divide over energy sources, and the importance of leveraging the US's leadership in technology and capital markets to lead in energy innovation. We hope you enjoy the discussion with Senator Landrieu as much as we did. Thanks to you all for your friendship and support!