Podcast appearances and mentions of Charles A Kupchan

Liana Fix, CFR fellow for Europe, and Charles A. Kupchan, CFR senior fellow and professor of international affairs at Georgetown University, sit down with James M. Lindsay on the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine to discuss Trump's evolving policy toward Ukraine.   Mentioned on the Episode:    Scott Bessent, “Economic Partnership Will Protect the Ukrainian People and the US Taxpayer,” Financial Times   Heidi Crebo-Rediker, “The Art of a Good Deal: Ukraine's Strategic Economic Opportunity for the United States,” CFR.org   Rush Doshi, “The Trump Administration's China Challenge,” Foreign Affairs   Liana Fix, “Partners in Peacemaking: How the United States and Europe Can End the War in Ukraine," CFR.org    Michael Froman and Charles A. Kupchan, “Supporting Ukraine Is in Trump's Interest,” Project Syndicate  For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President's Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/tpi/trumps-peace-plan-ukraine-liana-fix-charles-kupchan

Charles A. Kupchan, a senior fellow at CFR and a professor of international affairs at Georgetown University, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss how the United States should adapt to an era of renewed great power competition and domestic disagreement over what it should seek to achieve abroad. This episode is the third in a special TPI series on U.S. grand strategy.   This episode first aired: July 30, 2024   Mentioned on the Episode    “A New U.S. Grand Strategy: The Case for Liberal Internationalism, With John Ikenberry,” The President's Inbox   Richard Haass, Foreign Policy Begins at Home: The Case for Putting America's House in Order   Charles A. Kupchan, Isolationism: A History of America's Efforts to Shield Itself From the World   Jake Sullivan, “Renewing American Economic Leadership”   Jake Sullivan, “The Sources of American Power: A Foreign Policy for a Changed World,” Foreign Affairs For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President's Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/tpi/new-us-grand-strategy-case-liberal-realism-charles-kupchan

Charles A. Kupchan, a senior fellow at CFR and a professor of international affairs at Georgetown University, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss how the United States should adapt to an era of renewed great power competition and domestic disagreement over what it should seek to achieve abroad. This episode is the third in a special TPI series on U.S. grand strategy.      Mentioned on the Episode    "A New U.S. Grand Strategy: The Case for Liberal Internationalism, With John Ikenberry,” The President's Inbox   Richard Haass, Foreign Policy Begins at Home: The Case for Putting America's House in Order   Charles A. Kupchan, Isolationism: A History of America's Efforts to Shield Itself From the World   Jake Sullivan, "Renewing American Economic Leadership”   Jake Sullivan, “The Sources of American Power: A Foreign Policy for a Changed World,” Foreign Affairs   For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President's Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/tpi/new-us-grand-strategy-case-liberal-realism-charles-kupchan 

Hosted by Andrew Keen, Keen On features conversations with some of the world's leading thinkers and writers about the economic, political, and technological issues being discussed in the news, right now. In this episode, Andrew is joined by Charles Kupchan, author of Isolationism: A History of America's Efforts to Shield Itself from the World. Dr. Charles A. Kupchan is Professor of International Affairs in the School of Foreign Service and Government Department at Georgetown University, and Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

« Đàm phán hòa bình giữa Nga và Ukraina sẽ nảy sinh một khi mối tương quan lực lượng được nhận thấy là ổn định trên bình diện quân sự », nghĩa là đôi bên phải đạt được các mục tiêu của cuộc chiến. Nhưng sự kiên định lập trường này ở cả hai phía khiến Mỹ và các nước đồng minh tại châu Âu lo lắng nguy cơ chiến tranh kéo dài đè nặng nền kinh tế đất nước. 10 yêu cầu và 100 chiếc tên lửa Trang mạng tờ Politico ngày 18/11/2022 đặt câu hỏi : « Phải chăng đã đến lúc Ukraina nói chuyện với Nga ? », rồi tự trả lời là « Chưa ». Tờ báo dẫn lời phát ngôn viên điện Kremlin ông Dmitri Peskov hôm 17/11, khẳng định : « Ukraina chưa muốn đàm phán ». Bằng chứng là trước đó, ngày 15/11/2022, trong bài phát biểu dài hơn 20 phút qua video tại thượng đỉnh G20, tổng thống Ukraina Volodymyr Zelensky đưa ra một bản kế hoạch hòa bình gồm 10 điểm, trong đó có đòi hỏi toàn vẹn chủ quyền lãnh thổ và nhất là mở một Tòa án Đặc biệt xét xử các tội ác chiến tranh của Nga… Không những bản kế hoạch này đã bị bác bỏ, mà quân đội Nga ngay trong cùng ngày, giữa lúc diễn ra thượng đỉnh G20, đã cho bắn vào lãnh thổ Ukraina đúng 100 tên lửa. Tổng thống Zelensky không ngần ngại ví rằng « Nga đáp trả cho mỗi một điều khoản bằng 10 quả tên lửa tương ứng ». Theo giới quan sát, sự việc cho thấy khả năng đàm phán lúc này dường như là « bất khả ». Một mặt, phía Nga không cho thấy có biểu hiện nào muốn đàm phán với Ukraina, theo như giải thích từ cựu đại sứ Pháp Jean-Maurice Ripert, trên kênh truyền hình quốc tế Pháp France 24 ngày 15/11 : « Thứ nhất là Vladimir Putin đã không đến dự thượng đỉnh G20 nhằm tìm kiếm cơ hội đàm phán cho tương lai của Ukraina. Nếu ông ấy cho rằng đây là chuyện nội bộ nước Nga thì lẽ ra ông ấy phải có mặt. Đúng lúc đích thân tổng thống Zelensky phải đưa ra các điều kiện để đàm phán, thảo luận thì Nga lại quyết định oanh kích các vùng Lviv, Kharkiv, và Kiev, giết chết thường dân và phá hủy các hạ tầng cơ sở. Điểm thứ ba là ông Peskov, phát ngôn viên nổi tiếng của điện Kremlin, trước đó khi đáp lời ông Zelensky, đã tuyên bố rằng Kherson vẫn thuộc về Nga bất chấp việc rút quân khỏi thành phố này. Rõ ràng là người ta không thấy có một chút tín hiệu nào là Nga sẵn sàng cho một cuộc đàm phán. » Kế hoạch hòa bình hay Mục tiêu chiến tranh ? Mặt khác, bản kế hoạch hòa bình 10 điểm mà ông Zelensky trình bày, bị giới quan sát đánh giá là một kế hoạch hậu chiến, dành để đàm phán với phương Tây. Đối với tổng thống Ukraina, sẽ không có một thỏa thuận Minks 3 khi bán đảo Crimée giờ trở thành một trong số các điều kiện để đàm phán, trái với những gì diễn ra trong các thỏa thuận Minks 1 và 2. Chuyên gia về Nga, Jean de Gliniasty, từng là đại sứ Pháp ở Nga, hiện là cộng tác viên tại Viện Nghiên Cứu Quốc Tế và Chiến Lược (IRIS) lưu ý, thế giới mới chỉ ở điểm khởi đầu của một tiến trình hòa bình phức tạp. Nga từng thông báo sẵn sàng đàm phán vô điều kiện – nhưng Nga chưa sẵn sàng đưa lại vào đàm phán các vùng mà Nga đã chiếm, kể cả bán đảo Crimée, vốn dĩ đối với ông Putin mang một ý nghĩa biểu tượng chính trị cao, một lằn ranh đỏ không nên vượt qua. Vẫn theo ông Jean de Gliniasty, kế hoạch 10 điểm của ông Zelensky mang dáng dấp của những mục tiêu chiến tranh hơn là cho hòa bình trong trước mắt. Những đòi hỏi mà Nga đánh giá chưa thể khởi động một cuộc đàm phán với Ukraina. Trên kênh truyền hình LCI, cựu đại sứ Pháp Jean de Gliniasty, giải thích tiếp như sau : « Trên thực tế, Ukraina đang đà thắng quân sự do vậy họ không có lý do gì mà đàm phán trong khi chiến thắng trong tầm tay – điều này có thể là đúng mà cũng có thể sai. Bản kế hoạch này là một phần trong các cuộc vận động ngoại giao trong hậu trường vẫn còn rất sơ khởi, nhằm gây áp lực một chút đối với người dân Ukraina để họ chấp nhận đàm phán. Phát biểu của ông Zelensky tại G20, đã bị rất nhiều nước tham dự G20, chứ không riêng gì các nước phát triển đánh giá là khá cứng rắn. Bản kế hoạch 10 điểm của ông không phải là kế hoạch hòa bình. Đó là 10 mục tiêu chiến tranh. Ông ấy cũng không nói là kế hoạch hòa bình, mà chính là điều kiện chấm dứt chiến tranh. » Mặc cả ngầm thất bại, thời điểm chưa chín muồi ? Một điểm đáng chú ý, là trong cuộc tranh luận này, kênh truyền hình LCI ngày 23/11/2022, thuật lại một thông tin từ các phóng viên báo Pravda tại Ukraina cho biết một ngày trước thượng đỉnh G20, một cuộc « mặc cả » hòa bình đã được ngầm đề nghị với tổng thống Nga Vladimir Putin từ một trong số các nước trung gian hòa giải nhưng không được nêu tên. Thỏa thuận này đề nghị Nga trao trả toàn bộ các vùng lãnh thổ đã bị sáp nhập cho Ukraina, đổi lại, tạm thời « đóng băng » trong vòng 7 năm mọi đàm phán về bán đảo Crimée, tạm ngưng 7 năm về việc Ukraina xin gia nhập NATO. Đề nghị này còn dự trù Nga ngưng hoàn toàn mọi cuộc tấn công bằng tên lửa nhắm vào các cơ sở hạ tầng năng lượng của Ukraina. Nhưng ngay sau đó, Nga ồ ạt pháo kích Ukraina, đề nghị này xem như không còn nữa. Trên kênh truyền hình LCI, tướng Nicolas Richoux, cựu chỉ huy lữ đoàn 7 thiết giáp, nhận định sự việc một lần nữa phản ảnh thời điểm cho một cuộc đàm phán hòa bình là chưa chín muồi. « Trong những điều kiện hiện nay, tính đến những gì ông Vladimir Putin đã mất trên bình diện quân sự, mất một nửa số lính 100 ngàn quân, 1.500 chiến xa, một thiệt hại hết sức to lớn, người ta có thể nói là ông ấy mất đến 40% số xe tăng mà cả nước Nga đã có, thì rõ ràng người ta khó có thể hình dung ông ấy chấp nhận rút quân khỏi các vùng lãnh thổ chiếm đóng có được từ năm 2014, những tỉnh ly khai, những chiến lợi phẩm 2014. Tôi nghĩ rằng ông Putin khó thể chấp nhận việc những thiểu số thân Nga đó thoát khỏi chiếc bóng của Nga. Lẽ đương nhiên việc đặt những nền tảng cơ bản cho đàm phán là cần thiết, nhưng thời điểm lúc này chưa thuận lợi cho các cuộc thương lượng bởi vì cả hai bên đều chưa đạt được các mục tiêu chiến tranh của mình. » Một quan điểm cũng được cựu đại sứ Pháp Jean de Gliniasty đồng chia sẻ, khi nhận định « cuộc đàm phán chỉ sẽ nảy sinh khi nào mối tương quan lực lượng sẽ được cảm nhận như là ổn định giữa bên này và bên kia trên bình diện quân sự. » Nguy cơ chiến tranh kéo dài Chỉ có điều việc cả Nga và Ukraina khăng khăng lập trường của mình khiến Hoa Kỳ và các đồng minh tại châu Âu lo lắng. Thời gian gần đây, trong hậu trường, nhiều quan chức Mỹ và châu Âu hối thúc Ukraina nên để ngỏ cánh cửa cho đàm phán dù vẫn tuyên bố rằng không tìm cách gây áp lực với Kiev. Đáng chú ý là phát biểu của tướng Mark Milley, tổng tham mưu trưởng quân đội Hoa Kỳ. Một ngày sau khi Nga thông báo rút quân khỏi thành phố Kherson, tướng Mark Milley, trong cuộc trả lời phỏng vấn truyền hình ngày 10/11/2022, có tuyên bố rằng « Khi có một cơ hội đàm phán, khi hòa bình có thể với được, thì hãy nắm lấy. Hãy nắm bắt lấy thời điểm đó ». Theo tướng Milley một chiến thắng của Kiev trên chiến trường nhằm đánh bật Nga ra khỏi Ukraina dường như là khó thể. Tất cả những gì có thể được làm trên chiến trường trước khi mùa đông đến thì đã được thực hiện và giờ thì nên tập trung vào những gì giành được để tạo thế mạnh trên bàn đàm phán trước một nước Nga đã bị suy yếu. Đương nhiên, luận điểm này của ông không làm phía Ukraina và phe « diều hâu » tại Mỹ hài lòng. Trước những phát biểu gây bối rối này, chính quyền Biden phải lên tiếng, xoa dịu mối lo Hoa Kỳ chuyển hướng. Cũng trong ngày 10/11 đó, Jake Sullivan, cố vấn an ninh quốc gia Mỹ khẳng định « Hoa Kỳ không gây áp lực với Ukraina ». Lầu Năm Góc thì thông báo cấp thêm 400 triệu đô la hỗ trợ quân sự. Thế nhưng, ngày 07/11, tờ Wall Street Journal nói đến các cuộc trao đổi kín giữa Jake Sullivan và các nhân vật thân cận của tổng thống Nga Vladimir Putin từ nhiều tháng qua. Về mặt chính thức, là nhằm cảnh báo lẫn nhau rủi ro leo thang xung đột, chứ không phải thảo luận về việc giải quyết cuộc chiến tại Ukraina. Trước đó ít ngày, báo Mỹ Washington Post còn tiết lộ, chính quyền Biden dường như đã đề nghị riêng với Ukraina, nên cho thấy nước này sẵn sàng đàm phán với Nga. Xin nhắc lại là trong tháng 9/2022, tổng thống Zelensky ký sắc lệnh không chấp nhận đàm phán với Matxcơva chừng nào Vladimir Putin vẫn tại quyền. Nếu như theo đánh giá của ông Jean de Gliniasty, những thông tin này được ra là một phần trong chiến lược « đánh động », chứng tỏ có một sự « thay đổi trong lập trường của Mỹ, khi nghĩ rằng nên tập cho Ukraina bắt đầu quen dần với việc đàm phán », thì đây có lẽ cũng là một cách Washington « dò dẫm tìm kiếm một khả năng cho ngoại giao » chí ít là có được một thỏa thuận ngưng bắn, theo như phân tích từ ông Charles A. Kupchan, cựu cố vấn cho Barack Obama về các hồ sơ châu Âu. Hy sinh khát vọng làm thành viên NATO ? Mỹ và châu Âu bắt đầu cảm thấy « khó có thể » hậu thuẫn lâu dài do gánh nặng chiến tranh bắt đầu tác động đến nền kinh tế các nước phương Tây. Xung đột càng kéo dài thì mặt trận hậu thuẫn Kiev càng có nhiều nguy cơ bị sụp đổ cả trên bình diện quốc tế lẫn trong nội bộ các nước, đặc biệt Mỹ, vốn dĩ đi đầu trong việc hỗ trợ Ukraina, cả về tài chính lẫn quân sự. Điều nghịch lý là phương Tây lo lắng cho một chiến thắng vang dội của Ukraina, vì điều cũng đồng nghĩa là một sự « sỉ nhục » cho ông Putin. Tiếp tục cung cấp vũ khí cho Ukraina để tái chiếm Crimée, vùng lãnh thổ có tính biểu tượng chính trị cao đối với ông Putin có nguy cơ dẫn đến những hành động trả đũa dữ dội như tấn công hạt nhân chẳng hạn. Tướng Mark Milley cảnh báo : Nga vẫn luôn có một sức mạnh chiến đấu phi thường bất chấp việc nếm mùi những thất bại. Và cuộc chiến Chechnya hẳn vẫn là một bài học kinh nghiệm quý giá còn đó ! Dẫu sao vẫn còn có chút tia hy vọng, trang mạng Responsible Statecraft của Mỹ, nhà nghiên cứu Ted Snider, lưu ý đến một chi tiết trong bản kế hoạch 10 điểm của ông Zelensky : Trong số này, không một điểm nào nhắc đến việc xúc tiến nhanh hơn ứng viên gia nhập NATO. Một tín hiệu cho biết Ukraina rất có thể sẵn sàng từ bỏ khát vọng là thành viên của NATO ? Đây sẽ là một bước ngoặt ngoại giao trong dòng cuộc chiến Ukraina ! ********** Có thể tham khảo thêm kế hoạch hòa bình 10 điểm của tổng thống Ukraina tại địa chỉ:  https://www.rfi.fr/vi/qu%E1%BB%91c-t%E1%BA%BF/20221124-ke-hoach-hoa-binh-10-diem-tong-thong-ukraina

On today's episode, Andrew is joined by Charles Kupchan, author of Isolationism: A History of America's Efforts to Shield Itself From the World. Charles A. Kupchan is Professor of International Affairs in the School of Foreign Service and Government Department at Georgetown University, and Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. From 2014 to 2017, Kupchan served in the Obama administration as Special Assistant to the President onthe National Security Council. He also served on the National Security Council during the Clinton administration. He is the author of The End of the American Era (Knopf), How Enemies Become Friends (Princeton), and No One's World (Oxford). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Over the past month, we've discussed a lot of specifics regarding the War in Ukraine. We've gone over the role of tanks, talked about Putin's motives, and discussed War Crimes. What we haven't done, really, is look at the big picture. What does this war mean, not just for Ukraine, but for Europe and America. What is the future of NATO? Increasingly, it feels like we're on the precipice of something … new and, perhaps, frightening.With us today to talk through all this is Charles A. Kupchan. Kupchan is a professor of international affairs at Georgetown University and a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.He's just written an op-ed in the New York Times titled Putin's War in Ukraine Is a Watershed. Time for America to Get Real.Angry Planet has a substack! Join the Information War to get weekly insights into our angry planet and hear more conversations about a world in conflict.https://angryplanet.substack.com/subscribeYou can listen to Angry Planet on iTunes, Stitcher, Google Play or follow our RSS directly. Our website is angryplanetpod.com. You can reach us on our Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/angryplanetpodcast/; and on Twitter: @angryplanetpod.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/warcollege. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

The conversation on Geopolitical Implications of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine during the International Studies Association 2022 Annual Convention featured Audrey Kurth Cronin, distinguished professor in the School of International Service and director of the Center for Security, Innovation, and New Technology at American University; Charles A. Kupchan, CFR senior fellow and professor of international affairs in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown University; and Kori Schake, senior fellow and director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. James M. Lindsay, senior vice president, director of studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg chair at CFR, moderated the discussion. LINDSAY: Good afternoon everyone. I am Jim Lindsay, senior vice president at the Council on Foreign Relations. It is my great pleasure to welcome you to today's on-the-record CFR luncheon discussion on the geopolitical implications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It is also my great pleasure to introduce a stellar set of panelists: Audrey Cronin, Charles Kupchan, and Kori Schake. I am going to keep my introductory remarks short even though I could talk at great length about each of them and the wonderful work they have done. Immediately to my left—at least geographically; not necessarily politically—(laughter)—is Audrey Cronin. She is distinguished professor in the School of International Service and director of the Center for Security, Innovation and New Technology at American University. She is the author of How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns. Her most recent book, Power to the People: How Open Technological Innovation is Arming Tomorrow's Terrorists was short-listed for the Lionel Gelber Prize and won the 2020 Airey Neave Prize. So congratulations on that, Audrey. CRONIN: Thanks, Jim. LINDSAY: In the center of the stage—not necessarily politically—(laughter)—is Charlie Kupchan. Charlie is a senior fellow at the Council, and a professor of international affairs at Georgetown University. From 2014 to 2017, Charlie served as special assistant to the president and senior director for European affairs on the staff of the National Security Council under President Barack Obama. Charlie's most recent book is Isolationism: A History of America's Efforts to Shield Itself from the World. Finally, to my far left—again, geographically; not necessarily politically—is Kori Schake. Kori is senior fellow and director of foreign and defense policy at the American Enterprise Institute. She has held policy positions across government including on the staff of the National Security Council, and at the U.S. State Department where she was deputy head of policy planning. Her most recent book is America vs. the West: Can the Liberal World Order be Preserved? So Audrey, Charlie, Kori, thank you very much for joining me. We have agreed that we will engage in a conversation for about twenty-five minutes. At that point we're going to open it up to everyone else in the room. Given that the title of our session is Geopolitical Implications of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine, I'd like to focus our conversation more on what the invasion means or doesn't mean for global order rather than focus on why Russia invaded or why Putin didn't get the quick victory that he anticipated. So where I'm going to start is a question for all of you. Vladimir Lenin once remarked that there are decades where nothing happens and weeks where decades happen. Now it certainly feels like we are in the latter situation right now, but is this really an inflection point in the global order, and if it is, is the best historical analogy for the current moment 1815? 1857? 1905? 1914? 1939? Pick whatever you want. Since I introduced you last, Kori, you get the first crack at the question. SCHAKE: No, I decline. I give Charlie the first crack at the question. (Laughs.) KUPCHAN: I was—you were going to buy time for me to think, so—(laughter). The era that most resembles—I'm going to— LINDSAY: I'm going to ask you the first question. Is this an inflection point? KUPCHAN: It's definitely an inflection point, and I guess the decade that most immediately comes to mind would be the 1890s, and that's because I think it's in the 1890s that a series of developments took place that enabled us to actually see the changes in the global balance of power that were taking place slowly, but it brought them to the surface. And that's because during that—it was during that decade the United States came online as a power with geopolitical ambition outside its neighborhood, picked a fight with the Spanish, turned into a colonizer of the Philippines and other places. Germany embarked on its High Seas Fleet in 1898. And so there was a kind of consolidation of a multi-polar setting that I think looked similar to today. And there was also a lot of domestic change and political fluidity that was the product of industrialization in Germany, in the United States. This was the progressive era dealing with large corporations, trusts, how do we tame them. This resonates with our age, both in terms of what's happening in other places, but also in here. There's a lot of economic or socio-economic dislocation that is taking place because of globalization. So that's—I think I'd say 1890s. SCHAKE: So can I now confess that I was actually reading the ISA tribute to the Trail of Tears so I had to punt to Charlie because I actually didn't know what question you were asking. I wasn't listening, Jim—(laughter)—and now that I know it's is this an inflection point—thank you, Charlie for stepping forward when I was unprepared—I don't actually think it's an inflection point. LINDSAY: Why not? SCHAKE: I think we are still litigating the end of the Cold War, that we assumed that the end was 1991 and 1992 with the unification of Germany, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the expansion of freedom, but in fact, Russia is more continuous with the Soviet Union than it is different from the Soviet Union under Vladimir Putin. And so, I think what we are seeing is a resurgent effort by the countries of the West to restrict Russian power when it is used for the suppression of the sovereignty and freedom of others. So I think we are still litigating the end of the Cold War. I hope it will be an inflection point because we succeed and we will end up with a Russia that either lives within the existing rules of the Western order or changes. LINDSAY: OK, Audrey, so we have a vote for an inflection point. We have a vote for no inflection point. Where do you weigh in? CRONIN: Well, I think that whenever we talk about historical analogies, I get really nervous because Ernest May's book had a huge impact on me early in my career—Thinking in Time—and I think personally I'm going to split the difference, and we can choose from different analogies. So I think we do have a lot of what Charlie has talked about; certainly at the end of the nineteenth century you had globalization, you had inequality at tremendous levels. You had a huge monopolization of major companies that were controlling more and more. You had the maturation of fossil-fuel-based economies, which is quite similar to the maturation of digitally based economies, and also the equivalent to oil, I would say, is—many have said—the equivalent to oil and coal is data. The data economy is becoming quite mature. And so I think the broader context is more the way that Charlie laid it out. But I also agree with you, Kori, because I think that, you know, 1947 is a period where I would look back and say we were—I mean, I did write my first book on the negotiations over Austria, so I see that as being very comparable to what we're thinking about in some ways with respect to Ukraine—or what the Ukrainians are thinking about. So I can certainly see the continuation with respect to the Soviet Union and Russia there, too. So I think we—you know, we have to pick and choose a little bit. LINDSAY: OK. Kori, I want to come back to you, and you can throw this question to Charlie or Audrey if you want— SCHAKE: (Laughs)—I'm listening now, I promise. LINDSAY: OK. You know, you have written a book asking about whether the liberal world order can be preserved, and you have mentioned that we have seen a remarkable show of unity and action in the West. I think the West as a term has sort of gotten a new lease on life. But the fact that there is unity at the start of the crisis doesn't mean there will be unity at the end of the crisis. How do you assess the chances for Western cooperation to continue to be sustained? Do you think it's temporary? Or is there an opportunity here for it to be long lasting? SCHAKE: That's a really good question, and the honest answer is I don't know. But I do see—and things are about to get a lot more painful for the countries of the West economically and possibly even politically to sustain the very hard line we have taken, and not just because it looks like Russia is going to turn off the gas pumps unless Western countries will pay in rubles to get Russia around some of the creative economic sanctions that the West has put forward, but also the inability to export wheat from Ukraine and natural resources from Russia. This is going to be a huge humanitarian crisis. We are going to have a food crisis, most particularly in the developing world. And that, too, will put pressure on Western governments. The good news is the amazing creativity of the treasury departments of the Western countries to come up new tools to try and impose economic costs on Russia. The bad news is it's not yet clear what the second-order effects of those tools are going to be, and who they're going to hurt, and who they're going to help as they—as they sink their roots. So we have set sail in very choppy waters. We did it for very good reasons, and I think, though, that two things will help Western countries hold together. The first is Russia is so obviously in the wrong here, and in a way, that's dangerous—not just to Ukraine; it's dangerous to this system of rules that have made the West safe and prosperous; namely borders only changed by consent, and sovereignty is inherent in any state—large, small, weak, powerful. So having the German SPD chancellor almost triple German defense spending this year, to commit to the NATO 2 percent next year as opposed to 2035, which was Germany's opening position, to start sending arms to Ukraine, and to agree to wean Germany off of Russian oil and gas by the end of this year—I don't see how you walk that back. He planted his sword, and I think that will hold—since Germany is one of the weakest links in Western unity on the sanctions that have been taken against Russia, it will be very hard for others to walk back if Germany holds the line. And the second thing is the war in Ukraine is taking on the trappings of a moral crusade, right? There are good guys in this and there are bad guys in this. And it will be very hard for a country of the West to—after all they have already said, look in the face what Russia is doing—you know, kidnapping mayors from towns they have occupied, shelling apartment buildings, and it was easier for us to look away in Afghanistan, in Syria, and in other places. It will be harder for them to look away in a neighboring country as it takes on this overtly moralistic overtone. LINDSAY: Let me ask you, Audrey, since you have written about Austria, do you see the potential for a negotiated deal that could stick, particularly in light of the point that Kori just made that this is starting—at least in the United States—to turn into a moral crusade, and it's very difficult to compromise when you are supposedly fighting over good versus evil? CRONIN: Yes, well, neutrality is not necessarily good versus evil. I mean, it's a different plane altogether, right? So you're talking geopolitics. You can have good or evil regimes that are neutral. So I don't really see the question of whether Ukraine could be neutral in those kind of crusade terms. I think it's all up to the Ukrainians and whether or not they can negotiate a deal that serves their interests. And there's a bunch of key things that I'm really worried about. One of them is they are talking about not joining any kind of foreign alliances. So the details on that are very, very important. So if that's part of an agreement, who decides what a foreign alliance is, is going to be very important. The second thing is that security guarantees—they want security guarantees, and they're saying from the United States, France, and Britain, and that's essentially an Article 5 commitment. That is quite potentially dangerous to NATO, so it could be quite destabilizing depending upon the details. What if the security guarantor were China, as well? What if Russia were insisting upon that as the agreement. So the devil is in the details in this agreement and to what degree are the Russians going to insist that there be demilitarization? I think that if the Ukrainians become neutral, it's going to have to be very important that they maintain robust defenses. And then the last thing I'm really worried about is what's it going to look like. What is the territory going to be? Because there is going to be partition, probably. They are going to have to give something up, and it would be the Donbas and Crimea probably—I'm guessing—and this is up to the Ukrainians, not us. But, where is that line going to be? Some people think that it could be along the Dnieper River. Some people think it could only be the Donbas region in Ukraine as I've just said. But exactly what it is that they're neutralizing is crucial. We could have actually a divided Ukraine that begins to look a little bit like the divided Germany after the Second World War. LINDSAY: Charlie, you have written in the pages of Foreign Affairs just last year, that there is a need for a great power concert. But given what we've just talked about and Kori's notion that we're really sort of moralizing this conflict, what are the prospects for a concert of great powers, and what would they cooperate on in this current context? KUPCHAN: Let me tie that question back to Kori's comment because you all—you clearly want us to disagree to get some friction here. LINDSAY: I want you to disagree nicely. (Laughter.) KUPCHAN: I will be very nice, but I—you know, I think there are some differences that should be delineated. Is this a moment of Western rejuvenation? Yes, on some level. But I also think it is a wake-up moment that will force us to confront the prospect of liberal overreach that we, at the end of the Cold War, thought that the order that we built was going to be universalized, and to some extent I think we are seeing blowback from that assumption, and may need to take a more conservative approach to the expansion of the liberal rules-based system that is more focused on us than it is on bringing others in. And I would point out that there is a big liberal democracy out there called India that has not decided to stand with the liberal democracies of the world in this conflict. Second point: I'm more worried than you are, Kori, that this kind of resurgence of moralism and Western strength will last, and that's because all the problems that we were concerned about before February 24 are still there, and in fact, they're getting worse. Gas prices are going up, egg prices are going up, grain and bread is going up. What—four million or close to four million refugees have arrived in Europe, and not too far off the Europeans are going to wake up and say, holy crap, most of these aren't going to go home. Where are we going to put them? How are we going to deal with this? And immigration has been really one of the toughest issues for Europe. So I do worry that as this clock moves forward, as we head into the midterms here in the United States, this kind of burst of bipartisanship will be just a burst, and that the Republicans are going to get their knives out—I'll defer to you on the Republican Party—but I don't think the America First crowd is gone; it's just quiet for now because it doesn't play well. I expect it to come back vocally as we get closer to the midterms. Final comment: I think the impulse, Jim, is to say forget a global concert; it's over. And to some extent I agree with that because Richard and I wrote a global concert depends upon the absence of an aggressor state. We have an aggressor state. It's called Russia. It has invaded its neighbor. But I would also point out that we cannot afford to go back to a world that looks like the Cold War. We are in the boat together on pandemics, on climate change, on proliferation, on global economic interdependence. So I do think we need to talk about either a post-Putin Russia or even a Putin Russia, and what can be done after the dust settles in Ukraine to figure out how to make sure that the broader global agenda that we face doesn't go by the wayside. LINDSAY: Kori, I want to get you to respond to Charlie's point that India has not joined in the effort to sanction. And I should note it's not just India; it's Brazil, it's South Africa. Indeed most of the countries of the global south have not rallied behind Western sanctions and in fact have criticized them. So what does that mean for the future of the rules-based order that you have spoken about? SCHAKE: I think it's a fabulous challenge. So I have a couple of reactions to it. The first is I would be doing exactly what they are doing if I were a developing country, an emergent economy because Germans can have the luxury of paying double gas prices. It's an incredibly wealthy country. The government can float bonds and pay for things in the future because there is a lot of confidence in the dynamism of the German economy. That's not the case for most emergent economies, and they have more pressing problems than the problems we are worried about. And so I think the first thing is we need to not be so judgmental about the fact that they are solving other harder problems than what we are trying to recruit them to help us with. Second, I also think that's good alliance management because allies very often disagree. They even disagree on really important things, so it's reasonable that people who are not tied as tightly into the benefits of the liberal international order are questioned more what they're going to offer for its continuation. So that's the second thing. The third thing is I think there's a difference between not wanting to be counted on something and opposing it. And India is an interesting case in this point—example in this case, sorry—because on the one hand they get a lot of their military equipment from Russia, and they have a budding, burgeoning relationship with the United States, Australia, and Japan; not because of Russia but because of China, and trying to figure out how to synchronize the gas pedal and the clutch on their series of concerns is actually genuinely difficult. And so, again, I don't think we should be too judgmental about this. But we should work hard to win the argument and explain to them why it is in their interest that countries cannot change borders by force. That's what Pakistan has attempted to do to India. That's what China is attempting to do to India. And they have a stake in a system in which all of us work together to prevent that. LINDSAY: Do you want to jump in here, Audrey? CRONIN: Yes, I was—so jumping off of that point, actually, Kori, isn't it interesting that China, the great defender of sovereignty, does not seem to be interested in defending Ukraine's sovereignty, and is quite interested in supporting the aggressor in this case. But getting back to India, I think the fact that only within the last two years the Indians have been fighting the Chinese in the Himalayas. You know, they have a lot of other things to worry about. And the other thing I would say is that, what major power war can you think of where what is essentially the non-aligned movement in the world has ever aligned with those who are currently defending the global order. And then the last thing that I'll say—to disagree a little bit since I think that's what you want—disagree a little bit with Charlie is that I don't think we could have a concert of Europe right now or a concert of great powers because we have a lot of new actors that are as powerful as great powers are in certain dimensions, including the major tech companies who are having a massive influence geopolitically on this crisis. So, we are not in 1815. We are in a different situation with a lot of new stakeholders and a different economic situation than the one that existed then. LINDSAY: Audrey, can I draw you out on that point about technology companies and the role they are playing? Can you just sort of spell it out for me—how you see them influencing or being influenced by the conflict? CRONIN: Yeah, so in some respects the tech companies have been—have sort of been bunged by reality because they have been very poor at dealing with situations of war. So you've got Meta that has been—you know, Facebook, and Instagram, and WhatsApp have all been shut down in Russia, and now Meta is being criminalized by the Putin administration—Putin regime—and so, because Meta claimed that they would go to an exception of their moderation rules and allow the Ukrainians to cry for blood against the Russians, this made them seem hypocritical and gave the Russians the excuse to criminalize them within Russia. So this whole concept of neutrality where—neutrality in terms of communications that they have sort of tied their whole identity to for many decades is proving to be extremely frayed. Meta is now being, you know, as I said, criminalized, and it's giving the Russians a greater argument for why it is that, you know, they can clamp down within Russia. And so, as a result, the Russian people are getting less information. For the first time that I can remember, the New York Times has pulled its people from Moscow. All of the major bureaus have either closed down or pulled people. You've got a, you know, crackdown that started to occur before this crisis where Google and Apple representatives were being harassed and, you know, very, very severely. There is kind of a hostage-taking approach to making sure that there were people there that the Putin administration could control. So I don't see Meta as having been very successful. However, then you've also got Elon Musk and Starlink. Look at the role that Starlink has played in Ukraine. I mean, he's the one who in many respects are keeping the Ukrainians connected, and that's not unrelated to how this crisis is going. Starlink, with its two thousand individual-sized satellites which are very difficult to shoot down—this has been a huge boon and a support for Ukraine. So I think that major tech companies are an important stakeholder in the international geopolitical realm that we don't put enough emphasis upon. LINDSAY: Kori, did you have a two-finger? SCHAKE: Yeah, I wanted to tag along on Dr. Cronin's very good—Dr. Cronin's very good point and say that it's not just— CRONIN: Kori, call me Audrey. We've known each other for decades. (Laughter.) SCHAKE: Thank you, my friend. It's not just the big tech companies. What we are looking at is a war in which civil society—business, private charities—all these different dimensions are playing extraordinary roles, right? Chef José Andrés is not only buffeting Poland and other countries that are taking in enormous numbers of refugees, he is also running aid convoys to Odessa. We could be in a point before this war is over where you have private charities breaking sieges of Ukrainian cities and the Russians trying to hold the sieges. You see the hackers group, Anonymous, going after the Russians something fierce, and that's where the values, the moral crusade part of this matters because civil society in free societies are taking it upon themselves—often beyond the control of the government and without the government's blessing—to do things that they think will help the people they think are good guys in the war. LINDSAY: I see you've done a two-finger, Charlie. I'll let you do that, but I'm going to ask one last question of you before we bring the rest of the room in. And it is what do you make of President Xi's decision to back Russia rather than to stand up for the principle of sovereignty? Are Russia and China now joined at the hip? How should U.S. statecraft respond to that? But I know you wanted to get a two-finger first. KUPCHAN: Yes. One quick two-finger to Dr. Professor Cronin. CRONIN: Oh, please. (Laughter.) KUPCHAN: And that is that—and this will just be in defense of the concert system, and I just came from a roundtable—I see Chet Crocker and others who were there—on concerts, one of their assets being the flexibility to put at the table Google, and Meta, and International Rescue Committee, and other groups precisely because they are not formal U.N. Security Council bodies. But you seem skeptical— CRONIN: You are—you are redefining the terms. KUPCHAN: —so let's not let you talk. (Laughter.) To your question, Jim, I think that the Chinese were a little bit uncertain at first, and they said some things that suggested that they were going to back Russia and some things that said they weren't so comfortable with the disruption that's being caused. My sense is that they have now coalesced around standing fairly firmly behind Putin. And I think that's because this is a war that, on balance, is probably good for China. And that's because it pushes Russia more fully into China's embrace and turns Russia irretrievably into the junior partner. It distracts the United States and Europe from the Asia-Pacific. We're going to be focused on the new central front for the foreseeable future, and I think the Chinese like that, just like they like the fact that we were spinning our wheels for twenty years in Afghanistan and Iraq. The big question mark in my mind is will they go the next step. Will they provide economic assistance and military assistance? Will they bail out a Russian economy that could be collapsing? And I don't know the answer to that. My guess is they're going to be careful not to see secondary sanctions get imposed. But one issue that I do worry about—and then I'll throw this out for discussion—is, are the Chinese going to look at what's happening here, and are we going to look at what's happening here, and say globalization and interdependence has become too dangerous, and as a consequence, we're moving into what could become an era of deglobalization? That's scary in a world in which two-thirds of the countries in the world already trade more with China than with us. So deglobalization may be unstoppable, but it's not necessarily good for the U.S. LINDSAY: OK, fair enough. On that note, I'm going to bring the rest of the room into our conversation. I want to remind everybody that this meeting is on the record. If you would like to ask a question, raise a hand, and please stand. Wait for the microphone to arrive, then state your name and affiliation before asking your question. And I do ask that you ask a question. Right here in the front—right here. CRONIN: (Laughs.) The race is on. Q: Thank you. Victoria Hui at University of Notre Dame. These days people talk about today it's Ukraine, tomorrow it's Taiwan. So do you think— LINDSAY: Can you hold it a little closer? Q: Oh. LINDSAY: Thank you. Q: People say today it's Ukraine; tomorrow it's Taiwan. So do you think that today it's Ukraine means— tomorrow it's Taiwan means that there is a bigger chance that there will be a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, or Ukraine—the experiences that we are seeing is actually going to make Taiwan safer? Thank you. LINDSAY: So have the chances of an invasion of Taiwan gone up or gone down? SCHAKE: So I honestly don't know. Let me tell you the two arguments. The first argument would be what the Chinese could learn from Russia's invasion of Ukraine is it's shocking that the Western world actually can pull together when it's serious. Second, the diabolical creativity of Western financial institutions to develop new tools in market—to affect markets, again, should be scary to them. Third, the only way to tell whether a military is any good at what it's doing is to fight it, and I—like a whole bunch of other people thought the Russian military was an awful lot better than it is. And China hasn't fought in a long time, and so whether they would have the grit for this fight or the ability to do the orchestration of logistics and air power, getting across a hundred miles of choppy water in an amphibious operation on Taiwan—that's a pretty sophisticated military task. So lots of reasons they should take caution from that. Not at all clear to me that Xi Jinping will take caution from that—that he may very well be arrogant enough to think, well, of course the Russians are terrible at this, but my military is great at this. And of course the Ukrainians feel Western. The Taiwanese are starting to feel Western; we'd better shut this down before it goes much further. Like I could see arguments where he would think the West would never have the stomach to impose on China the kind of economic restrictions they are imposing. So it's touch and go I think. KUPCHAN: Two quick thoughts: the first is that I think on balance it makes a Chinese attack less likely, and that's simply because the Chinese are watching what's happening to Russia, and they're probably going to calculate we don't want to go down that rabbit hole; that does not look good to us. My second observation is that I think it probably makes sense for the United States to end strategic ambiguity—not to change the One China policy, but to say we're going to defend Taiwan because I think part of what happened in Ukraine is we were ambiguous, and the Russians called our bluff. So if we intend to defend Taiwan, let's say so. If we don't intend to, let's say so. But living with this ambiguity, it seems to me, invites trouble. We just learned that in Ukraine. LINDSAY: Charlie, how do you square that with your observation earlier that you worry that the America First movement is just sort of in abeyance right now and will come back with great force? Because that would seem to be the kind of commitment that they would oppose. KUPCHAN: You know, it is a huge and interesting question, and if Trump is reelected, I don't know what the future of NATO and U.S. alliances in Asia will be. I do think, though, that the impetus for the America First movement came out of the forever wars, and that if you look at the Trump administration, they were actually pretty tough on China and supportive of Taiwan. LINDSAY: The administration was; the president wasn't necessarily— KUPCHAN: President not so, but the Republicans are—you know, they're pretty gung-ho on China, and so I think that this geopolitical realignment that we have been undertaking: out of wars of choice in the Middle East let's focus on meat-and-potatoes issues in Eurasia is good because I think that's the sweet spot in American politics. LINDSAY: Audrey, do you want to jump in here? CRONIN: Just two things on the Taiwan question and also the relationship between Russia and China—I think firstly that China is going to find that it has developed a kind of a vassal state now and, you know, the Russians are going to be depending upon China for weapons, for buying their oil, for technology, for evading sanctions, and I'm not sure that China, over time, is going to find that this is a good deal for them, so I think that may—in theory—change the desire that they might have had to take aggressive action against Taiwan. I think you can see it both ways, though. I agree with Kori. I'm not sure that it's possible to say definitively that way. But the second thing I would say is that Taiwan has a lot to learn from what Ukraine has done. So, you know, urban warfare; using easily accessible and cheap technologies; engaging in, you know, skirmishes; fighting forward; not depending upon huge legacy systems—instead using the kinds of tactics that we associate with insurgents. I think that Taiwan would be extremely good at that, and they're going to learn from Ukraine. LINDSAY: I think it's a really important point that both sides can learn from the events in Ukraine. If you want to ask a question in the back of the room, you're really going to have to stand up and wave because I'm not sure I can see that far back. But we have a question right here. Q: Hi. Jim Morrow, University of Michigan. LINDSAY: Go blue! Q: It's clear that the Europeans are going to come close to meeting their commitments to increase their military spending. My question is do you also think that they'll go further to create something like a really unified European military, and also to take the political changes to have a coherent European foreign policy? And then the other part of the question is should the United States encourage this because it seems to me there's two sides to this. One is greater burden sharing—the Europeans can carry more, but at the same time, it will decrease U.S. influence on security and defense issues. SCHAKE: Those are great questions. So I think the result of Russia's aggression is going to be Europeans clinging more tightly to the United States because when we are scared, we like to hold hands with each other. And even watching how awful the Russian military is at the profession of arms doesn't appear to be making our European friends and allies any less desirous of having the United States in the mix of it. So I don't anticipate that the increased spending is going to be external to NATO or to build European capabilities autonomous of the United States. I do think, however, we should be encouraging closer political and even military cooperation among the Europeans for exactly the reason you said, which is after watching the performance of this Russian military, the Poles could defeat the Russians pretty easily. And once you start mixing all the NATO countries in, our opposition to greater European autonomy has actually encouraged the Europeans to think of themselves as weak, and they are not. And we should want allies that feel their strength and are confident in their strength as a way of better balancing the risks all of us run together. KUPCHAN: I would just add, Jim, that I think what's going on in Germany is an inflection point because if there were to be a development on the European side that changed, in a consequential way, Europe's defense capability, it had to happen in Germany. And Germany was the laggard. I mean, its military has atrophied, deteriorated in a way that's hard to overstate. And if there is to be a kind of European pillar, it has to start with Germany, and it looks like they are starting. But I agree with Kori that this is not the beginning of Macron's strategic autonomy, and that's because France is alone in having a view of Europe as standing apart from the United States and flexing its muscles on the global stage. Just about every other EU member state wants a stronger Europe that's tethered to the United States; not that goes off on its own. That's good for them, and I think it's good for us. CRONIN: Yeah, the only thing I would add is let's look at what the non-NATO members have done to get a sense of how important this shift is. I mean, if you look at the tremendous increase in spending—defense spending in Sweden, increase in defense spending in Finland; the fact that Switzerland, which is not a member of NATO or the EU is now abiding by the sanctions—you know, this is an inflection point if only from that perspective. The Europeans are drawing together in anger and frustration, and it is unprecedented. LINDSAY: We'll go over here to the right side of the room. Q: Hi, deRaismes Combes from American University. Thank you so much for an interesting conversation. I'm still thinking about this notion of historical analogies that you started with, and I'm wondering if you think Ukraine is teaching us anything about 21st century geopolitics in the digital age that we just haven't really grasped before in terms of where this is heading, both specifically with Ukraine, but also with Taiwan and with the broader geopolitical system and the liberal world order. So thank you. LINDSAY: Do you want to take first crack at that, Audrey? CRONIN: Yes, I mean, that's a huge question, and the answer is yes—(laughs)—it's teaching us a lot about geopolitics in the digital age. Some of this I've already talked about. I think that major digital actors need to be parts of this Concert of Europe that we're talking about, the concert of the great powers, because I think they play an enormous role in affecting the future and how things are evolving. You know, I think that we see a lot with respect specifically to Ukraine, which is that the fact that Ukraine had a pretty advanced technology element to their economy; they are very advanced in aeronautics; they had their own drone industry, and their use of drones has come very naturally to Ukrainian citizens—you know, those who are volunteering. You know, this shows you that—again, getting back to the question on Taiwan—countries that are advanced in terms of their digital capabilities, and their populations are able to use digital technologies effectively, are going to be, I think, more successful as we move into the 21st century. LINDSAY: Kori, you want to jump in here? SCHAKE: Yeah, two quick, additional points. One is that one of the surprises of this war was that we all expected it was going to start with a cyber Armageddon, right, that power stations were—power systems were going to go down all over Ukraine, that the government wouldn't be able to communicate. All of these fancy cyber things were supposed to happen, and they didn't. And it looks like they didn't happen for three reasons: first, is the Russians gave us so much lead time of what they were potentially doing that NSA and CYBERCOM were able to forward deploy to Ukraine and other places teams to assist in the defense of the architectures. Second, the Russians—for reasons I don't understand—were evidently more restrained than anybody anticipated. Maybe it's the nature of cyber tools that once you unleash them your adversaries can use them back against you. Maybe we are seeing an assured destruction leveling. And the third thing is it's just easier to blow stuff up—(laughter)—and so the Russians blew stuff up. And so one big thing we expected was going to happen actually turns out not to be as significant in modern warfare. But Audrey's point about the technological sophistication—I mean, the Ukrainian government dispensing an app so that people can identify Russian troops as they come. That gave them country-wide situational awareness. A couple hundred thousand people are actively using the app, so you get societal resilience and you also get better information. It is really extraordinary. LINDSAY: Did you want to— KUPCHAN: Just one quick sentence on the—how important the information space has been. You know, the Biden administration I think deserves credit for stealing the march from the Russians, right? The Russians have spent the last five, ten years cleaning our clocks in the information space. I think that the Biden people reversed it. They got out ahead. They released intel that they probably shouldn't have released, but they did it anyway, and I really think it has made a difference. LINDSAY: Going to go all the way to the back of the room. Q: Thank you. I'm Chandler Rosenberger from Brandeis University. And I wanted to follow up on this point about resilience because I think we've talked a lot about tactics. We've talked a lot about specific things that the Ukrainians have done. But I think the most impressive thing about them is how resilient they have been militarily and as a society. And I wonder if that tells us something about the advantages of a kind of, you know, liberal, democratic, civic order in which people feel deeply invested and its ability to survive an assault from an authoritarian states where the soldiers seem not to know what they are fighting for, that there's—maybe we can have more faith in that kind of democratic social resilience than we might have had otherwise. LINDSAY: Who wants to take first crack at the question? CRONIN: I will. LINDSAY: OK, Audrey, you're closest, got your finger up first. CRONIN: All right, well, so yes, I think that we are going to learn a lot about societal resilience, but I think we have to wait. I think we have to wait and find out how this plays out because Kori's point about it being a lot easier to just blow things up, that is also still true. So if all you want to do is crush a country and, you know, occupy that country by killing a lot of civilians and, you know, targeting corridors of humanitarian fleeing civilians, if all you want to do is kill a lot of people, I think the Russians are capable of doing that. And I don't think we can yet come to full conclusions about how strong that resilience is going to be to stand up to that. We're still pretty early in this fight. I hope from my heart that what you are saying is what we learn from this conflict. But we're only, what, about a month and a half into it—five weeks into it, so I hope that resilience is what we get out of it. SCHAKE: So it clearly makes a difference in the willingness of soldiers to run risks in a fight, right? We see the comparative difference in Russia and Ukraine, and I do think that that's partly about societal resilience. In better militaries than the Russians there's also the professionalism that gives resilience, right? They're not fighting for me; they are fighting for the guy standing next to them kind of resilience. Temperamentally I want so much to believe it's true, and yet, I think there are a couple of factors that make Ukraine uniquely resilient against a Russian invasion. First, the terrors of Soviet occupation. There are still Ukrainians alive who experienced the Holodomor that Russia—the Soviet Union imposed on Ukraine. They feel like they are fighting for survival. They don't feel like they are fighting for a particular kind of government—in addition to a particular kind of government. The second thing is that I think it matters that the World War II generation is still alive in our countries because I think they have a slightly different perspective. But let me add one hopeful note. When Jim Mattis and I did the surveys of American public attitudes about military issues for our book, Warriors and Citizens several years ago, the weirdest anomaly in the data was that the attitudes of people under twenty-five most closely approximated the attitudes of people who had lived through the Great Depression and World War II: that the world feels fundamentally uncertain and unsafe to them, and that does give a kind of resilience that I think the intervening generations might not have to the same extent. LINDSAY: Charlie? KUPCHAN: Yeah, what I'm sort of ruminating on, vis-à-vis this question, is how did Putin get it so wrong, right? Because we will look back at this crisis and say Putin made Ukraine great again. The Ukraine that he envisaged did exist, but it was—it was pre-2014 and probably all the way going back to the Orange Revolution. You know, you used to go to Mariupol, or Donetsk, or Lugansk, and it was full of Russians, and they felt like Russians, and they affiliated with Russia. That's gone, right? They have come together around a strong Ukrainian national identity, including the president, who grew up speaking Russian, right? How did he get elected? He got elected by, you know, pro-Russian and Russian speakers in eastern and southern Ukraine. That's gone, right? He's now a rock star because he's giving his middle finger to Putin. And so the country has really come together as a consequence of Russian aggression. It's a kind of blowback that the Russians are going to have to live with forever. LINDSAY: This gentleman here with the dark jacket. Q: Fen Hampson from north of the border. The panel—I've forgotten who it was—raised the interesting question about Russia with Putin and Russia without Putin. And I'd like to ask you, if and when this crisis ends, what sort of relationship do we have with Russia if Putin is still around? Do we walk back sanctions? Do we take oligarchs off Magnitsky? Do we stop proceedings in the International Criminal Court? Do we welcome them back to the various organizations they've been thrown out of, and that includes the G-20? And if he leaves—for whatever reason—you know, is Russian going to be easier to deal with or more difficult to deal with? And I would say, you know, be careful what you wish for because he has provided stability—and I'm not defending him—but one can envisage a scenario where the security vacuum extends now to Russia as others see weakness in Moscow. LINDSAY: Charlie, do you want to take a first crack at that? KUPCHAN: A lot depends, Fen, on how this ends, and my best guess is that it will not end cleanly, and it will not end well. Audrey already mentioned some of the provisions that are tentatively on the table. I have a hard time imagining them seeing the light of day. Who is going to guarantee Ukraine's security? Is Zelenskyy going to get the support of the Rada to change the constitution? Is he going to have the domestic support to recognize Crimea, Mariupol, and Donetsk, and Lugansk as Russian? So I'm guessing that what will end up here is another frozen conflict in which Russia takes a big bite out of eastern Ukraine, probably doesn't go into Kyiv because it's not going very well, and then we sort of have to say, well, the fighting is over. They did more, they took more; now what? And I guess I'm enough of a realist to say that, you know, we're going to have to go back to something that looks more like the Cold War which mixes containment and engagement. And that's because there is simply too much at stake to put Russia in the penalty box and throw the key away. And so I would say that even in a post-war Putin Russia as opposed to a post-Putin Russia, we're going to have to find ways of getting some difficult hedging cooperation on arms control, on the question of energy issues—I mean, there's a lot of stuff here that we can't just throw away. LINDSAY: I want to get in one last question because we're nearing the end of our time, so we'll go to that young lady over there, if we can, and then I'll have to ask the panelists to be short in the response. Q: Hi, I hope this won't be too long. My name is Eve Clark-Benevides. I'm from SUNY Oswego. And I—there was an editorial in the New York Times yesterday that infuriated me, but it has been really coming up during this whole talk. Bret Stephens argues maybe we're being a little bit too premature, kind of celebrating that Putin has miscalculated. Maybe actually Putin really only wanted eastern Ukraine all along. He never really thought—and that a lot of the goals that Putin has wanted over time—getting rid of the free press, getting the moderates to move out, and really having full power over the Russian society—is really coming to pass. So this is kind of a piggyback off the last question that, really, are we going to see sort of these steps to disengage economically and politically with Russia—you know, Britain realizing that maybe having Russian money completely floating their economy—we're trying to divest. Do you think that maybe in this new Cold War—whatever occurs—that we're going to continue to really try to get away from oligarch money in the political systems in the West? LINDSAY: OK, Audrey, you had your hand up first so— CRONIN: Yes, so when it comes to our analyses of Putin, I think it's a mistake for us to personalize this as much as we are. You know, put aside this unfortunate comment about potentially regime change in the way that it was interpreted. I think that the Russians have always, throughout their history, gone back and forth between kind of a Slavophile approach and a Westernizer approach, and Putin is a Slavophile. So what we're seeing right now is a reawakening of Russian nationalism, a move back exactly along the lines that you just suggested to having greater control over their domestic population, getting rid of some of the threats that Putin personally feels are quite dangerous; you know, domestic movements within Russia. I hate to see all of this happen, but yes, it does feel quite familiar. I mean, I spend my—some of my teenage years living in Moscow in the American embassy. I remember the Cold War; I'm old enough to remember all of that. And I think we are going to have to move back to that kind of relationship where sometimes we can deal on certain things and at other times we can't deal on those things, we deal on other things. But the worst thing that we could do would be to make Russia a complete pariah because, if you understand European history, you also know that anytime you have a complete pariah that is aside from the whole system, you are more likely to end up in a major war. LINDSAY: Charlie or Kori? SCHAKE: So Putin—I don't buy the argument that Putin is a grand strategic genius and invaded Ukraine in order to crackdown domestically for two reasons: first because he is already cracking down. It was just a slow strangulation—CREF, Nemtsov, and Navalny—and so he didn't need the Ukraine invasion to be more repressive domestically. But the second thing is I think the failure of Russian force and arms in Ukraine is actually making his domestic position much more tenuous in ways that I think are unpredictable from the outside to understand. My answer to—just quickly, my answer to the what do we—how do we deal with Putin still in power, I think it would be a good thing for us to find ways for a strategically smaller, weaker, and humiliated Russia to have a U.S. counterparty on some things that are important to them and to us. It will make Ukraine's longer-term future and Russia's longer-term future easier to handle if we, who have had so little invested in this fight, step forward and help integrate Russia in ways that we can. KUPCHAN: To the question of was Putin a grand master and he intended this from the beginning, I don't see it, and that's because he could have done the eastern bit at any time, and he wouldn't have needed to put almost two hundred thousand troops all around Ukraine, including in Belarus. He could have just gone into the separatist territories, turned south, gone to Mariupol and connected to Crimea, and called it a day. I think what's happening here is he's changing the goalposts because his original goal of regime change and the occupation of the country, it does not look feasible anymore, although I agree with my colleagues that he might just keep bombing for another few months. Who knows what will happen? But the key question in my mind is whatever that ultimate disposition is, can he portray it as a victory? Can he sell it—not just to the Russian people, but to the Russia elite system, which is showing more discontent than I think we've ever seen in modern Russia. I don't think Putin is about to go, but I do think that this is a war that is going to loosen his grip on power, and anything could come of that. It could mean he goes and we get a worse outcome. After all, a lot of the people around him share his views. It could also be that we get a more benign outcome. We don't know, and as a consequence, I think we just have to hedge our bets. LINDSAY: Well, that brings us to the end of our time here. I want to thank everyone in the room for joining us for this conversation on the geopolitical implications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. I want to do a shout-out to Irina Faskianos and her team— AUDIENCE MEMBER: Yay, Irina! (Applause.) LINDSAY: —for arranging today's thing. And I want to say thank you to our three guests: Kori Schake, Charlie Kupchan, and Audrey Cronin for their expertise. (Applause.) (END

“Guerra, perché l'Occidente deve temere il nemico in casa propria”, un articolo di Charles A. Kupchan su La Repubblica. L'invasione russa dell'Ucraina ha rinvigorito Nato, Ue e G7 ma le spinte illiberali sono un pericolo per le democrazie. La solidarietà dimostrata nei vertici di emergenza della Nato, tra gli Stati Uniti e il Consiglio europeo e del G7 che si sono svolti giovedì scorso rivela un Occidente ringiovanito. Infatti, le democrazie atlantiche hanno risposto all'invasione russa dell'Ucraina con un'ammirevole unità armando l'Ucraina, rafforzando il fianco orientale della Nato e imponendo sanzioni all'economia russa.[…] ____________________________________ Ascolta “Punti di Vista” - Editoriali dei principali quotidiani nazionali a confronto, a cura di Lapo De Carlo. “Punti di Vista” offre una panoramica delle prospettive delle testate italiane più influenti, soffermandosi sulle parole e sulle riflessioni che emergono dagli editoriali nazionali sui fatti di attualità e sulle notizie della settimana. Per i notiziari sempre aggiornati ascoltaci sul sito: https://www.giornaleradio.fm oppure scarica la nostra App gratuita: iOS - App Store - https://apple.co/2uW01yA Android - Google Play - http://bit.ly/2vCjiW3 Resta connesso e segui i canali social di Giornale Radio: Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/giornaleradio.fm/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/giornaleradio.tv/?hl=it Twitter: https://twitter.com/giornaleradiofm

Charles A. Kupchan, senior fellow at CFR and professor of international affairs at Georgetown University, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its sweeping ramifications for global order.    Articles Mentioned on the Podcast   Charles A. Kupchan, “Why Putin's War With Ukraine Is a miscalculation,” CFR.org, February 24, 2022   Charles A. Kupchan, “The Right Way to Split China and Russia,” Foreign Affairs, August 4, 2021   Books Mentioned   Charles A. Kupchan, Isolationism: A History of America's Efforts to Shield Itself From the World (2020)

In this episode we discuss Isolationism: A History of America's Efforts to Shield Itself from the World by Charles A. Kupchan. Next time we'll discuss After Nationalism: Being American in an Age of Division by Samuel Goldman.

In this episode we discuss Great Founder Theory by Samo Burja. Next time we'll discuss Isolationism: A History of America's Efforts to Shield Itself from the World by Charles A. Kupchan.

Using Charles Kupchan and Peter Trubowitz's Foreign Affairs article "Why an Internationalist Foreign Policy Needs a Stronger Domestic Foundation" as a basis for discussion, Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to talk about President Joe Biden's "foreign policy for the middle class." Who, exactly, is in the "middle class"? Are certain positions on foreign policy pro- or anti-middle class? Is there a connection between the domestic programs the administration is pushing and a better foreign policy? Is it possible to evaluate whether our foreign policy is working for the average American? Zack gives a shoutout to people who can disagree on important issues and still be friends, Melanie wishes the people who make the rules would follow them, and Chris praises two scholars for a new report on Taiwan.   Links Daniel Drezner, "Real Talk about a Foreign Policy for the Middle Class," Washington Post, May 20, 2021 Charles A. Kupchan and Peter L. Trubowitz, "Why an Internationalist Foreign Policy Needs a Stronger Domestic Foundation," Foreign Affairs, May/June 2021 Salman Ahmed, Wendy Cutler, et al., "Making Foreign Policy Work Better for the Middle Class," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 23, 2020 Jake Sullivan, "What Donald Trump and Dick Cheney Got Wrong about America," The Atlantic, December 13, 2018 Antony Blinken, "A Foreign Policy for the American People," U.S. Department of State, March 3, 2021 Kirk Siegler, "Why Support for Refugees in Higher Than You Might Think in Parts of 'Trump Country,' NPR, May 11, 2021 Brian Slodysko, "As Pandemic Spread Pain and Panic, Congressman Chased Profit," AP, May 21, 2021 Mackenzie Eaglen and Dov S. Zakheim, "The White House Should Show Their Cards Earlier: Reveal the Defense Budget Passback Guidance," War on the Rocks, May 21, 2021 Dan Baer, "Tracking Biden's Progress on a Foreign Policy for the Middle Class," Carnegie Endowment, April 6, 2021 Patrick Porter and Michael Mazarr, “Countering China’s Adventurism over Taiwan: A Third Way,” Lowy Institute, May 20, 2021 Craig Hooper, “Despite Promises, USS Ford Heads to Shock Trials With 4 Broken Elevators,” Forbes, May 13, 2021

Janice Stein, chair of the Lionel Gelber Prize jury speaks with Charles Kupchan about his shortlisted book, Isolationism: A History of America’s Efforts to Shield Itself from the World.

In this episode of .think atlantic, IRI's Thibault Muzergues is joined by Charles A. Kupchan to explore the history of isolationism in the United States and apply those lessons towards a broader conversation about the future of America, Europe, and transatlantic relations. Charles serves as a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and as a professor of international affairs at Georgetown University in the Walsh School of Foreign Service and Department of Government. From 2014 to 2017, he served as special assistant to the president and senior director for European affairs on the staff of the National Security Council in the Barack Obama administration. He was also a director for European affairs on the NSC during the first Bill Clinton administration. Visit IRI’s website at www.iri.org Visit CFR's website at https://www.cfr.org/ Further reading: Isolationism: A History of America's Efforts to Shield Itself From the World by Charles A. Kupchan (https://www.cfr.org/book/isolationism)

Charles A. Kupchan, senior fellow at CFR and professor of international affairs at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service and Department of Government, and Leslie Vinjamuri, director of the U.S. and Americas program and dean of the Queen Elizabeth II Academy for Leadership at Chatham House, and associate professor of international relations at SOAS, lead a conversation on isolationism, internationalism, and America’s role in the world.

Charles A. Kupchan, senior fellow at CFR and professor of international affairs at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service and Department of Government, and Leslie Vinjamuri, director of the U.S. and Americas program and dean of the Queen Elizabeth II Academy for Leadership at Chatham House, and associate professor of international relations at SOAS, lead a conversation on isolationism, internationalism, and America’s role in the world.

Su Repubblica Charles A. Kupchan con "Cina e Medio Oriente, due lezioni per Biden" l'autore tira le somme sulle elezioni americane. "L'America è tornata", ha scritto la scorsa settimana su Twitter il presidente eletto Joe Biden, affermando che la sua nuova squadra di politica estera "è pronta a guidare il mondo, non a isolarsi da esso". Biden e la sua squadra di consulenti di politica estera che sta emergendo aspettano con grande impazienza il venti gennaio per porre fine alla strategia abrasiva improntata al motto "America first" [...].Sul Corriere della Sera, invece, Massimo Gramellini racconta con ironia la curiosa vicenda del marito di Como che percorrendo a piedi 420km si è spinto fino a Fano, nelle Marche

In the past few years isolationism, which had long been derided in the national discourse, has been making a comeback as a political force. In Isolationism: A History of America's Efforts to Shield Itself from the World (Oxford University Press, 2020), Charles A. Kupchan traces the history of the concept in American politics and considers its future influence on American foreign policy. As he demonstrates, isolationism was long dominant in shaping American foreign policy, as for decades political leaders heeded George Washington's advice to steer clear of entangling alliances. By the end of the 19th century, however, America's growing engagement with the world sparked policy shifts as various forms of internationalism were introduced. Though isolationism remained a powerful influence on foreign policy, the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 publicly discredited isolationism for millions of Americans, paving the way for the adoption of Franklin Roosevelt's approach of “liberal internationalism.” While this remained the consensus approach through the Cold War, Kupchan shows how the post-Cold War overreach of American foreign policy offered new life to isolationist concepts, giving it a renewed influence shaping America's relationship with the world. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the past few years isolationism, which had long been derided in the national discourse, has been making a comeback as a political force. In Isolationism: A History of America's Efforts to Shield Itself from the World (Oxford University Press, 2020), Charles A. Kupchan traces the history of the concept in American politics and considers its future influence on American foreign policy. As he demonstrates, isolationism was long dominant in shaping American foreign policy, as for decades political leaders heeded George Washington's advice to steer clear of entangling alliances. By the end of the 19th century, however, America's growing engagement with the world sparked policy shifts as various forms of internationalism were introduced. Though isolationism remained a powerful influence on foreign policy, the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 publicly discredited isolationism for millions of Americans, paving the way for the adoption of Franklin Roosevelt's approach of “liberal internationalism.” While this remained the consensus approach through the Cold War, Kupchan shows how the post-Cold War overreach of American foreign policy offered new life to isolationist concepts, giving it a renewed influence shaping America's relationship with the world. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the past few years isolationism, which had long been derided in the national discourse, has been making a comeback as a political force. In Isolationism: A History of America’s Efforts to Shield Itself from the World (Oxford University Press, 2020), Charles A. Kupchan traces the history of the concept in American politics and considers its future influence on American foreign policy. As he demonstrates, isolationism was long dominant in shaping American foreign policy, as for decades political leaders heeded George Washington’s advice to steer clear of entangling alliances. By the end of the 19th century, however, America’s growing engagement with the world sparked policy shifts as various forms of internationalism were introduced. Though isolationism remained a powerful influence on foreign policy, the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 publicly discredited isolationism for millions of Americans, paving the way for the adoption of Franklin Roosevelt’s approach of “liberal internationalism.” While this remained the consensus approach through the Cold War, Kupchan shows how the post-Cold War overreach of American foreign policy offered new life to isolationist concepts, giving it a renewed influence shaping America’s relationship with the world. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the past few years isolationism, which had long been derided in the national discourse, has been making a comeback as a political force. In Isolationism: A History of America's Efforts to Shield Itself from the World (Oxford University Press, 2020), Charles A. Kupchan traces the history of the concept in American politics and considers its future influence on American foreign policy. As he demonstrates, isolationism was long dominant in shaping American foreign policy, as for decades political leaders heeded George Washington's advice to steer clear of entangling alliances. By the end of the 19th century, however, America's growing engagement with the world sparked policy shifts as various forms of internationalism were introduced. Though isolationism remained a powerful influence on foreign policy, the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 publicly discredited isolationism for millions of Americans, paving the way for the adoption of Franklin Roosevelt's approach of “liberal internationalism.” While this remained the consensus approach through the Cold War, Kupchan shows how the post-Cold War overreach of American foreign policy offered new life to isolationist concepts, giving it a renewed influence shaping America's relationship with the world.

In the past few years isolationism, which had long been derided in the national discourse, has been making a comeback as a political force. In Isolationism: A History of America’s Efforts to Shield Itself from the World (Oxford University Press, 2020), Charles A. Kupchan traces the history of the concept in American politics and considers its future influence on American foreign policy. As he demonstrates, isolationism was long dominant in shaping American foreign policy, as for decades political leaders heeded George Washington’s advice to steer clear of entangling alliances. By the end of the 19th century, however, America’s growing engagement with the world sparked policy shifts as various forms of internationalism were introduced. Though isolationism remained a powerful influence on foreign policy, the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 publicly discredited isolationism for millions of Americans, paving the way for the adoption of Franklin Roosevelt’s approach of “liberal internationalism.” While this remained the consensus approach through the Cold War, Kupchan shows how the post-Cold War overreach of American foreign policy offered new life to isolationist concepts, giving it a renewed influence shaping America’s relationship with the world. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the past few years isolationism, which had long been derided in the national discourse, has been making a comeback as a political force. In Isolationism: A History of America’s Efforts to Shield Itself from the World (Oxford University Press, 2020), Charles A. Kupchan traces the history of the concept in American politics and considers its future influence on American foreign policy. As he demonstrates, isolationism was long dominant in shaping American foreign policy, as for decades political leaders heeded George Washington’s advice to steer clear of entangling alliances. By the end of the 19th century, however, America’s growing engagement with the world sparked policy shifts as various forms of internationalism were introduced. Though isolationism remained a powerful influence on foreign policy, the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 publicly discredited isolationism for millions of Americans, paving the way for the adoption of Franklin Roosevelt’s approach of “liberal internationalism.” While this remained the consensus approach through the Cold War, Kupchan shows how the post-Cold War overreach of American foreign policy offered new life to isolationist concepts, giving it a renewed influence shaping America’s relationship with the world. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the past few years isolationism, which had long been derided in the national discourse, has been making a comeback as a political force. In Isolationism: A History of America’s Efforts to Shield Itself from the World (Oxford University Press, 2020), Charles A. Kupchan traces the history of the concept in American politics and considers its future influence on American foreign policy. As he demonstrates, isolationism was long dominant in shaping American foreign policy, as for decades political leaders heeded George Washington’s advice to steer clear of entangling alliances. By the end of the 19th century, however, America’s growing engagement with the world sparked policy shifts as various forms of internationalism were introduced. Though isolationism remained a powerful influence on foreign policy, the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 publicly discredited isolationism for millions of Americans, paving the way for the adoption of Franklin Roosevelt’s approach of “liberal internationalism.” While this remained the consensus approach through the Cold War, Kupchan shows how the post-Cold War overreach of American foreign policy offered new life to isolationist concepts, giving it a renewed influence shaping America’s relationship with the world. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the past few years isolationism, which had long been derided in the national discourse, has been making a comeback as a political force. In Isolationism: A History of America’s Efforts to Shield Itself from the World (Oxford University Press, 2020), Charles A. Kupchan traces the history of the concept in American politics and considers its future influence on American foreign policy. As he demonstrates, isolationism was long dominant in shaping American foreign policy, as for decades political leaders heeded George Washington’s advice to steer clear of entangling alliances. By the end of the 19th century, however, America’s growing engagement with the world sparked policy shifts as various forms of internationalism were introduced. Though isolationism remained a powerful influence on foreign policy, the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 publicly discredited isolationism for millions of Americans, paving the way for the adoption of Franklin Roosevelt’s approach of “liberal internationalism.” While this remained the consensus approach through the Cold War, Kupchan shows how the post-Cold War overreach of American foreign policy offered new life to isolationist concepts, giving it a renewed influence shaping America’s relationship with the world. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On today's episode, Andrew talks with professor Charles A. Kupchan about his new book, Isolationism: A History of America's Efforts to Shield Itself from the World, and what lies ahead for the Biden administration. Charles A. Kupchan is Professor of International Affairs in the School of Foreign Service and Government Department at Georgetown University, and Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. From 2014 to 2017, Kupchan served in the Obama administration as Special Assistant to the President on the National Security Council. He also served on the National Security Council during the Clinton administration. He is the author of The End of the American Era (Knopf), How Enemies Become Friends (Princeton), and No One's World (Oxford). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Charles A. Kupchan, CFR senior fellow and professor of international affairs at Georgetown University, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss the long history of American efforts to avoid foreign entanglements. Kupchan’s newest book, Isolationism: A History of America’s Efforts to Shield Itself From the World, hit bookstore shelves earlier this month.

Charles A. Kupchan is a professor in the School of Foreign Service and the Government Department at Georgetown University. He joins Bookstack host Richard Aldous to discuss his book Isolationism: A History of America's Efforts to Shield Itself from the World (https://global.oup.com/academic/product/isolationism-9780199393022?cc=us&lang=en&#), published by Oxford University Press in October 2020.

Charles A. Kupchan discusses his new book, Isolationism: A History of America’s Efforts to Shield Itself From the World. From the founding era until the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, the United States avoided strategic commitments abroad, with brief exceptions during the Spanish-American War and World War I. The United States then abandoned isolationism amid World War II and the Cold War, and instead embraced global engagement. Isolationism, however, is currently making a comeback as Americans pull away from foreign entanglement. Isolationism explores the enduring connection between the isolationist impulse and the American experience across the full arc of U.S. history. The CFR Fellows’ Book Launch series highlights new books by CFR fellows.

Today on The Scalpel, Dr. Keith Rose breaks down the path to the impeachment inquiry, how we got here...and why.   The Scalpel with Dr. Keith Rose is proudly sponsored by Zbones Bone Conduction Headphones   Learn more @ zbones.io   Today's show notes are extensive. Do your own homework and decide for yourself.   Judicial Watch: Documents Reveal Obama State Department Official in Contact with Russian Embassy 'Political Chief' One Month Before Trump Inauguration https://www.judicialwatch.org/press-releases/judicial-watch-documents-reveal-obama-state-department-official-in-contact-with-russian-embassy-political-chief-one-month-before-trump-inauguration/   Cut 15: Trump helps Ukaraine, Not Obama https://grabien.com/story.php?id=261279   Cut 14: Start at 1:50 https://heavy.com/news/2019/10/eric-ciaramella/   https://archive.usukraine.org/coalition/report-wh-press-conf-events.shtml   Charles A. Kupchan | Council on Foreign Relations https://www.cfr.org › expert › charles-kupchan   Cached Charles Kupchan is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and professor of international affairs at Georetown University in the Wa… Why giving Ukraine lethal weapons would be a massive mistake https://www.washingtonpost.com › news › global-opinions › 2017/08/07 Aug 7, 2017 - Charles A. Kupchan, a professor of international affairs at Georgetown ... Russia enjoys insurmountable military superiority over Ukraine. What counterterrorism can teach us about thwarting Russian ... https://www.washingtonpost.com › news › democracy-post › 2018/02/22 Feb 22, 2018 - Charles Kupchan is professor of international affairs at Georgetown University ... As U.S. intelligence chiefs told Congress last week, Russia is ... Charles A. Kupchan | Foreign Affairs https://www.foreignaffairs.com › authors › charles-kupchan   Cached Similar Results 1 - 12 of 12 - Browse all articles written by Charles A. Kupchan for Foreign Affairs. ... NATO has traditionally treated Russia as a strategic pariah. But now ... Charles Kupchan - Russia in Global Affairs https://eng.globalaffairs.ru › person   Cached Charles A. Kupchan is Professor of International Affairs at Georgetown University and Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Opinion | Is NATO Getting Too Big to Succeed? - The New ... https://www.nytimes.com › 2017/05/25 › opinion › nato-russia-donald-trump May 25, 2017 - By Charles A. Kupchan ... The United States would not sit idly by if Russia concluded a military alliance with Canada and Mexico and deployed ... Charles Kupchan – Foreign Policy https://foreignpolicy.com › author › charles-kupchan   Cached Charles A. Kupchan, a professor at Georgetown University and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, served as special assistant to the president for ... NATO's Final Frontier: Why Russia Should Join the ... - jstor https://www.jstor.org › stable   Similar by CA Kupchan - ‎2010 - ‎Cited by 43 - ‎Related articles Why Russia Should Join the Atlantic Alliance. Charles A. Kupchan. At nato's 2010 summit, planned for November, the alliances members intend to adopt a new ... Charles Kupchan | Wilson Center https://www.wilsoncenter.org › person › charles-kupchan   Cached Similar I have spent most of my career working at the intersetion of academia and public policy. After a first teaching job at Princeton, I opted for a stint in the government ... Reaching Out to the Russians by The Wilson Quarterly ... https://www.wilsonquarterly.com › quarterly › summer-2010-inside-israel   Cached Jul 1, 2010 - Today, NATO is making a strategic mistake by not integrating Russia into the alliance, argues Charles A. Kupchan.     ABOUT THE END OF THE AMERICAN ERA Refuting the conventional wisdom that the end of the Cold War cleared the way for an era of peace and prosperity led solely by the United States, Charles A. Kupchan contends that the next challenge to America’s might is fast emerging. It comes not from the Islamic world or an ascendant China, but from an integrating Europe that is rising as a counterweight to the United States. Decades of strategic partnership across the Atlantic are giving way to renewed geopolitical competition. The waning of U.S. primacy will be expedited by America’s own ambivalence about remaining the globe’s guardian and by the impact of the digital age on the country’s politics and its role in the world.   By deftly mining the lessons of history to cast light on the present and future, Kupchan explains how America and the world should prepare for the more complex, more unstable road ahead.   Power in Transition   "Perhaps the defining challenge for the West and the rising rest is managing this global turn and peacefully arriving at the next world by design," Kupchan concludes. "If the West can help deliver to the rest of the world what it brought to itself several centuries ago­—political and ideological tolerance coupled with economic dynamism, then the global turn will mark not a dark era of ideological contention and geopolitical rivalry, but one in which diversity and pluralism lay the foundation for an era of global comity."   Sept 2016 https://www.cnn.com/2016/09/15/politics/john-brennan-cia-communist-vote/index.html https://www.thedailybeast.com/team-trump-kushner-and-don-jrs-meeting-with-a-russian-lawyer-may-have-been-a-democratic-setup   Veselnitskaya, the Russian lawyer who met with Kushner, Trump Jr., and Manafort, is one of the country’s most prominent litigators. Her clients have included state-owned businesses, as well as a Russian holding company that was, at the time of the meeting, under investigation for laundering stolen Russian taxpayer money through American banks and Manhattan real estate.   Cut 1 http://ibankcoin.com/zeropointnow/2017/03/29/smoking-gun-obama-defense-deputy-slips-up-on-live-tv-reveals-spying-on-trump-team-and-leaking-of-intel/#sthash.CbDBE7Fx.wvUuP6Ck.dpbs The White House surveilled the Trump campaign and then leaked information to anti-Trump allies in congress (on “The Hill”).     Cut 2. 2/17 https://grabien.com/file.php?id=164121     Cut 3: 2017 https://grabien.com/file.php?id=313919 Then there was no evidence   Sept 2017 https://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/04/trump-russia-investigations-congress-242256   Cut 4: Jan 18th Buzzfeed article https://grabien.com/file.php?id=587037   Cut 5: 2/4/18 https://grabien.com/file.php?id=327859 Cut 6: 7/16/18 https://grabien.com/file.php?id=424645 Cut 7 https://grabien.com/file.php?id=464661 Cut 8 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2018/03/18/schiff_must_speak_out_now_before_trump_fires_mueller.html   https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/07/russian-lawyer-veselnitskaya-posted-picture-facebook-inside-john-mccains-office/   Cut 9 3/19 https://grabien.com/file.php?id=582381   Cut 10: https://grabien.com/story.php?id=261235   US Embassy pressed Ukraine to drop probe of George Soros group during 2016 election. Prepped ambassador too. https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/435906-us-embassy-pressed-ukraine-to-drop-probe-of-george-soros-group-during-2016   Cut 13: Caeleigh Jennings on Twitter Schiff “will suspend” https://twitter.com/caeleighdc/status/1195450578010333184?s=12 Anti-corruption work and other activities Yovanovitch was respected within the national security community for her efforts to encourage Ukraine to tackle corruption,[18]and during her tenure had sought to strengthen the Ukrainian National Anti-Corruption Bureau, which had been created to bolster efforts to fight corruption in Ukraine; these efforts earned Yovanovitch some enemies within the country.[19] In a March 2019 speech to the Ukraine Crisis Media Center, Yovanovitch said that the Ukrainian government was not making sufficient progress to combat corruption, saying: "It is increasingly clear that Ukraine's once-in-a-generation opportunity for change has not yet resulted in the anti-corruption or rule of law reforms that Ukrainians expect or deserve."[20]   #UkrainianNationalAnticorruptionBureau #PushkinInstitute #DrKeith #TheScalpel #News #Politics #Future #Conservatives #Democrats #hypocrites #liberals #immigration #presidentialcandidate #brands #america #freedom #branding #progressive #truth #history #Dependence #independence #ValerieJarrett #POTUS #MAGA #Trump  

Charles A. Kupchan discusses the future of the European Union.