Podcasts about Magnitsky

What's the easiest way for Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to invade Canada? Simple: Have voters sit out the upcoming election and let Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister. If you're Canadian—especially if you live abroad—now's the time to get organized. Make sure you and at least five of your family and friends have a plan to vote. Not sure if you're registered? Check here! Voting from abroad? Double-check your registration and make sure you've got everything you need by visiting this link. In this week's Gaslit Nation Canada Super Special, we're joined by the amazing Leigh McGowan from Politics Girl, plus Marcus Kolga, a Canadian writer, filmmaker, and human rights advocate. Marcus is an expert on Russian and Central/Eastern European issues and Kremlin disinformation. He regularly shares his insights in top publications like The Globe and Mail, The Toronto Star, Maclean's, and The Atlantic Council. Marcus also played a crucial role in the Canadian campaign for the Magnitsky human rights sanctions and has helped drive similar efforts in Estonia, Latvia, Sweden, and Australia. His expertise has taken him to testify before parliaments in the UK, Australia, and Canada, covering everything from Russian disinformation to Interpol reform. Currently, he's a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute's Centre for Advancing Canada's Interests Abroad. This week's bonus show will be our live discussion with Dr. Lisa Corrigan, author of Prison Power: How Prison Politics Influenced the Movement for Black Liberation and Black Feelings: Race and Affect in the Long Sixties. Dr. Corrigan is the Director of the Gender Studies Program at the University of Arkansas and also teaches in both African & African American Studies and Latin American and Latino Studies.   Want to enjoy Gaslit Nation ad-free? Join our community of listeners for bonus shows, ad-free episodes, exclusive Q&A sessions, our group chat, invites to live events like our Monday political salons at 4pm ET over Zoom, and more! Sign up at Patreon.com/Gaslit!   EVENTS AT GASLIT NATION: March 17 4pm ET – Dr. Lisa Corrigan joins our Gaslit Nation Salon to discuss America's private prison crisis in an age of fascist scapegoating  March 31 4pm ET – Gaslit Nation Book Club: From Dictatorship to Democracy: A Conceptual Framework for Liberation, which informed revolts in Ukraine, the Arab Spring, Hong Kong, and beyond  NEW! April 7 4pm ET – Security Committee Presents at the Gaslit Nation Salon. Don't miss it!  Indiana-based listeners launched a Signal group for others in the state to join, available on Patreon.  Florida-based listeners are going strong meeting in person. Be sure to join their Signal group, available on Patreon.  Have you taken Gaslit Nation's HyperNormalization Survey Yet? Gaslit Nation Salons take place Mondays 4pm ET over Zoom and the first ~40 minutes are recorded and shared on Patreon.com/Gaslit for our community    Show Notes: Ways to Vote in Canada https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=vot&dir=vote&document=index&lang=e How Canadians Can Vote Abroad https://travel.gc.ca/travelling/living-abroad/elections-faq Meet Politics Girl https://www.politicsgirl.com/ Meet Marcus Kolga https://macdonaldlaurier.ca/cm-expert/marcus-kolga/ Nadia Guerrera for Parkdale–High Park https://nadiaguerrera.ca/  Clip: Dropkick Murphys call out a Nazi at their Boston show https://bsky.app/profile/meidastouch.com/post/3lkhxscnvws2x Clip: Stephen Marche on why the US can't occupy Canada https://bsky.app/profile/jimmyalto.bsky.social/post/3lkgixldo6s2t Want to topple a dictator? Gaslit Nation Book Club: From Dictatorship to Democracy by Gene Sharp https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/images/ic/480x270/p08qz3w0.jpg.webp

རྒྱ་ནག་གིས་འགྲོ་བ་མིའི་ཐོབ་ཐང་རྡོག་རོལ་དང་འབྲེལ་ཨོ་གླིང་གཞུང་གིས་རྒྱ་ནག་ཐོག་ Magnitsky ཁྲིམས་གཞི་ལག་བསྟར་དགོས་པའི་སྐུལ་འདེབས་གནང་འདུག The post ཨོ་གླིང་གཞུང་གིས་རྒྱ་ནག་ཐོག་ Magnitsky ཁྲིམས་གཞི་ལག་བསྟར་དགོས་པའི་སྐུལ་འདེབས་གནང་འདུག appeared first on vot.

A report on the parliamentary elections, the visa-free regime suspension for Georgian Diplomatic passports, a shooting in the Abkhazian Parliament, an MMA star close to Kadyrov in Tbilisi, an art exhibition about protests, and much more! Thanks for tuning in!Let us know what you think and what we can improve on by emailing us at info@rorshok.com You can also contact us through Instagram @rorshok_georgia or Twitter @RorshokGeorgiaLike what you hear? Subscribe, share, and tell your buds.We want to get to know you! Please fill in this mini-survey: https://forms.gle/NV3h5jN13cRDp2r66Wanna avoid ads and help us financially? Follow the link: https://bit.ly/rorshok-donate

Comentario: La Ley Magnitsky. Por: Enrique Vargas Peña. by ABC Color

Casey and Elisha sit down with Bill Browder, the driving force behind the creation and expansion of Magnitsky sanctions over the past decade. They talk about how corrupt officials in Russia and elsewhere hate Magnitsky sanctions, and the allies Bill has found in his fight for justice. They also talk about the proposed Navalny Act, honoring slain Russian democratic activist Alexei Navalny. What's up next for Bill? Freeing another Russian prisoner: Vladimir Kara-Murza.

Vikwazo vyakifedha vya mtindo wa Magnitsky pamoja na marufuku yakusafiri, yametolewa dhidi ya maafisa saba wa gereza ambao serikali ya Australia ina amini, walishiriki katika unyanyasaji wa

Este 14 de enero está previsto que Bernardo Arévalo asuma el cargo como presidente de Guatemala tras vencer en las pasadas elecciones. Sin embargo, la transición se ha visto llena de obstáculos e intentos para invalidar los comicios por instituciones afines al oficialismo, lo que el presidente electo ha calificado de intento de golpe de Estado. Ante tanta presión, Estados Unidos se ha mostrado como aliado inquebrantable de Arévalo. La ofensiva del Ministerio Público de Guatemala para evitar la presidencia de Bernardo Arévalo ha llegado en muchas formas. La Fiscalía general, afín al Gobierno actual y dirigida por María Consuelo Porras, ha maniobrado, de momento sin éxito, para invalidar los resultados electorales y desmontar el Tribunal electoral.“Esperamos que ese apoyo internacional se mantenga”Arévalo ha buscado apoyo en la comunidad internacional. A Estados Unidos se ha desplazado varias veces en busca de garantías para poder asumir su presidencia este domingo. No en vano: allí se encuentran medio centenar de magistrados, exiliados tras ser perseguidos legalmente en Guatemala.Una de ellos es Thelma Aldana, ex fiscal general del país: “Estados Unidos y la comunidad internacional han estado apoyando al pueblo guatemalteco para que se respete su ejercicio democrático al momento de elegir al presidente Bernardo Arévalo. Y como sabemos que ha sido atacado de diferentes formas mediante el Ministerio Público, con amenazas de muerte, entonces ha habido un apoyo muy, muy importante de la Unión Europea, de la Organización de Estados Americanos, de Estados Unidos y de otros países. Y nosotros esperamos que ese apoyo internacional se mantenga para Guatemala, para ayudar a la democracia del país”, asegura.Posibilidad de sancionesEstados Unidos ha bloqueado parte de sus fondos a Guatemala, además de sancionar a varios de sus funcionarios por corrupción. Para Pamela Ruiz, analista de Centro América del International Crisis Group, Washington tiene claro que con Arévalo, las relaciones serán más fluidas y transparentes que con el actual mandatario Alejandro Giammattei.“Bajo la administración de Giammattei, lo que se ha visto es que ha sido un poco tensa esa relación en términos de que Estados Unidos llegó hasta un punto de removerle fondos a Guatemala. Ahora bien, lo que sí hemos visto entre conversaciones entre Estados Unidos y Bernardo Arévalo, es que los países tienen ciertos temas que son de mutuo interés, como el tema de migración, así como la prevención del tráfico de droga y mejorar la transparencia en las entidades o las instituciones guatemaltecas, ya que también la administración de Arévalo viene con un plan anticorrupción”, subraya la analista.De hecho, si finalmente hay alguna maniobra que impida la llegada de Arévalo a la presidencia, Pamela Ruiz cree que Estados Unidos reaccionará con dureza: “Creo que los senadores han sido muy claros en que primeramente se podría remover todos los fondos que entran a ese país por medio de USAID. Creo que veríamos tal vez una nueva lista de nombres, ya sea a la Lista Engel, removiendo, quitando visas. También hay la posibilidad de que se agreguen personas a la lista de Magnitsky. Y también creo que vendrían unas sanciones para el país de Guatemala, que creo que no es ni conveniente para Guatemala ni conveniente para Estados Unidos”, recalca.Por su parte, el presidente saliente Alejandro Giammattei ha considerado estas acciones como intentos de injerencia extranjera.

Este 14 de enero está previsto que Bernardo Arévalo asuma el cargo como presidente de Guatemala tras vencer en las pasadas elecciones. Sin embargo, la transición se ha visto llena de obstáculos e intentos para invalidar los comicios por instituciones afines al oficialismo, lo que el presidente electo ha calificado de intento de golpe de Estado. Ante tanta presión, Estados Unidos se ha mostrado como aliado inquebrantable de Arévalo. La ofensiva del Ministerio Público de Guatemala para evitar la presidencia de Bernardo Arévalo ha llegado en muchas formas. La Fiscalía general, afín al Gobierno actual y dirigida por María Consuelo Porras, ha maniobrado, de momento sin éxito, para invalidar los resultados electorales y desmontar el Tribunal electoral.“Esperamos que ese apoyo internacional se mantenga”Arévalo ha buscado apoyo en la comunidad internacional. A Estados Unidos se ha desplazado varias veces en busca de garantías para poder asumir su presidencia este domingo. No en vano: allí se encuentran medio centenar de magistrados, exiliados tras ser perseguidos legalmente en Guatemala.Una de ellos es Thelma Aldana, ex fiscal general del país: “Estados Unidos y la comunidad internacional han estado apoyando al pueblo guatemalteco para que se respete su ejercicio democrático al momento de elegir al presidente Bernardo Arévalo. Y como sabemos que ha sido atacado de diferentes formas mediante el Ministerio Público, con amenazas de muerte, entonces ha habido un apoyo muy, muy importante de la Unión Europea, de la Organización de Estados Americanos, de Estados Unidos y de otros países. Y nosotros esperamos que ese apoyo internacional se mantenga para Guatemala, para ayudar a la democracia del país”, asegura.Posibilidad de sancionesEstados Unidos ha bloqueado parte de sus fondos a Guatemala, además de sancionar a varios de sus funcionarios por corrupción. Para Pamela Ruiz, analista de Centro América del International Crisis Group, Washington tiene claro que con Arévalo, las relaciones serán más fluidas y transparentes que con el actual mandatario Alejandro Giammattei.“Bajo la administración de Giammattei, lo que se ha visto es que ha sido un poco tensa esa relación en términos de que Estados Unidos llegó hasta un punto de removerle fondos a Guatemala. Ahora bien, lo que sí hemos visto entre conversaciones entre Estados Unidos y Bernardo Arévalo, es que los países tienen ciertos temas que son de mutuo interés, como el tema de migración, así como la prevención del tráfico de droga y mejorar la transparencia en las entidades o las instituciones guatemaltecas, ya que también la administración de Arévalo viene con un plan anticorrupción”, subraya la analista.De hecho, si finalmente hay alguna maniobra que impida la llegada de Arévalo a la presidencia, Pamela Ruiz cree que Estados Unidos reaccionará con dureza: “Creo que los senadores han sido muy claros en que primeramente se podría remover todos los fondos que entran a ese país por medio de USAID. Creo que veríamos tal vez una nueva lista de nombres, ya sea a la Lista Engel, removiendo, quitando visas. También hay la posibilidad de que se agreguen personas a la lista de Magnitsky. Y también creo que vendrían unas sanciones para el país de Guatemala, que creo que no es ni conveniente para Guatemala ni conveniente para Estados Unidos”, recalca.Por su parte, el presidente saliente Alejandro Giammattei ha considerado estas acciones como intentos de injerencia extranjera.

Day 630.Today, we bring you the latest news from the frontline, hear reporting from the ground in Hungary, and interview Mykola Kuleba, Founder of Save Ukraine, that rescues and rehabilitates Ukrainian children kidnapped by Russia. Contributors:David Knowles (Host). @djknowles22 on Twitter.Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor, Defence). @DomNicholls on Twitter.Joe Barnes (Brussels Correspondent). @Barnes_Joe on Twitter.Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on Twitter.With thanks to Mykola Kuleba (Founder of Save Ukraine). @MykolaKuleba on Twitter. Save Ukraine: https://www.saveukraineua.org/ Washington Post investigation: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/11/11/nordstream-bombing-ukraine-chervinsky/ ISW analysis: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/if-west-cuts-aid-ukraine-russia-will-win-if-west-leans-ukraine-can-win Find out more: Subscribe to The Telegraph: telegraph.co.uk/ukrainethelatestEmail: ukrainepod@telegraph.co.ukSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The latest massacres in Bucha and Mariupol have shown that Vladimir Putin has no regard for human life – he only cares about power and money. In Putin's eyes, money is power, and vice versa. That's why freezing the assets of Russians tied to Putin's regime is so important. Between 1996 and 2005, American investor Bill Browder ran the largest foreign investment firm in Russia, until he was declared ‘a threat to Russian national security' and got kicked out of the country. Browder has spent the last 14 years trying to understand the dark money flowing out of Russia.In his book Freezing Order Browder tells the story of his quest to establish a global regime for imposing sanctions on Russians involved in corruption and criminality. Support the show

Stand Up is a daily podcast. I book,host,edit, post and promote new episodes with brilliant guests every day. Please subscribe now for as little as 5$ and gain access to a community of over 740 awesome, curious, kind, funny, brilliant, generous souls Check out StandUpwithPete.com to learn more Bill Browder is the founder and CEO of Hermitage Capital Management, which was the investment adviser to the largest foreign investment fund in Russia until 2005, when Bill was denied entry to the country and declared a “threat to national security” as a result of his battle against corporate corruption. Following his expulsion, the Russian authorities raided his offices, seized Hermitage Fund's investment companies and used them to steal $230 million of taxes that the companies had previously paid. When Browder's lawyer, Sergei Magnitsky, investigated the crime, he was arrested by the same officers he implicated, tortured for 358 days, and killed in custody at the age of 37 in November 2009.   Since then, Browder has spent the last 5 years fighting for justice for Mr. Magnitsky. The Russian government exonerated and even promoted some of the officials involved so Browder took the case to America, where his campaigning led to the US Congress adopting the ‘Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act' in 2012, which imposed visa sanctions and asset freezes on those involved in the detention, ill-treatment and death of Sergei Magnitsky (as well as in other human rights abuses). This law was the first time the US sanctioned Russia in 35 years and became the model for all subsequent US sanctions against Russia. Browder is currently working to have similar legislation passed in Magnitsky's name across the European Union.  Get Bill's amazing book Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder, and One Man's Fight for Justice   Check out all things Jon Carroll Follow and Support Pete Coe Phil Round Music Pete on YouTube Pete on Twitter Pete On Instagram Pete Personal FB page

What would you do if a wealthy and powerful tyrant decided you were a direct challenge to his power? This is the dilemma that Bill Browder, best-selling author and human rights activist, has faced over the last fifteen years. Earning the ire of Vladimir Putin, in 2009, his lawyer Sergei Magnitsky was tortured and murdered in cold blood; this heinous act set off a chain of events that would lead Browder to work both ends of the candle to raise a stunning piece of legislation called the Magnitsky act. Now enacted in 35 countries, it allows governments sweeping powers to freeze the assets and visas of foreign government officials deemed to be human rights offenders.  At 58, this American native, in this latest episode of 52 Insights, recounts his incredible tale of survival with me. His chilling story,  documented in his bestselling novels Freezing Order and Red Notice, read like omens leading up to the gravest geopolitical conflict in Europe since WW2. Browder's story isn't just about one man's endless fight to dismantle a sociopathic regime but a tale built on protecting his virtues - justice, perseverance and a higher calling. It's hard not to be inspired by his story. In this discussion, we delve into the following: Browder's personal history Russia's erratic journey to the present day Examining the relationship between Browder's sanction work and Putin's War with Ukraine Trump's collusion with Russia Putin's personal vendetta against Browder The war in Ukraine and its eventual conclusion Browder's legacy

Established in June 1976, the Helsinki Commission set out to monitor human rights conditions in Europe in the context of the Cold War. Nearly half a century later, the commission is as relevant as ever, laying the framework to hold Russia accountable following the conclusion of the war in Ukraine. In episode 31 of NATO DEEP Dive, Dr. Sajjan Gohel is joined by Alex Tiersky and Michael Cecire to discuss the key role that the Helsinki Commission is playing in the collection of battlefield evidence and in calling for the Wagner Group to be labelled a terrorist entity, as well as the commission's instrumental role in the introduction of the Magnitsky sanctions. Full transcripts for each episode can be found at: https://deepportal.hq.nato.int/eacademy/deep-dive-podcasts/ Follow DEEP Dive to stay up to date with each new upload.

Bill Browder is a financier turned political activist, dubbed a chief enemy of Vladimir Putin. Dialling in from London, he tells Amy Dale about how the murder of his lawyer inspired a global campaign for Magnitsky laws. ​

Evgenia Kara-Murza, is a Russian dissident and campaigner for democratic change in Russia.    Evgenia is the wife of Vladimir Kara-Murza, a Russian politician, author, and historian who is currently jailed in Russia as a political prisoner of Vladimir Putin having previously survived two assasination attempts. Kara-Murza played a key role in the establishment of Magnitsky laws around the world and has been a long time opponent of Putin's regime.   Evgenia is the advocacy coordinator for the Free Russia Foundation, which seeks to give a voice to those repressed by the current Russian government and informs the world about the situation in Russia.   Misha Zelinksy caught up with Evgenia to discuss Russia's war in Ukraine, Russian war crimes and who must pay, why the West indulged Putin for too long, how Putin has crushed Russian political opposition, why Ukraine must win, and what a post Putin Russia might look like one day.   You can follow Evgenia and Vladimir here: @ekaramurza and @vkaramurza   You can follow Misha Zelinsky who is reporting on the war for the Australian Financial Review from inside Ukraine here: @mishazelinsky     About Vladimir Kara-Murza   A longtime colleague of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov, he has served as deputy leader of the People's Freedom Party and was a candidate for the Russian Parliament. Kara-Murza played a key role in the passage of “Magnitsky laws” in countries around the world – including the UK, the U.S., and Canada – that imposed personal sanctions on Russian officials involved in human rights abuses.  Twice, in 2015 and 2017, he was targeted for assassination by poisoning by operatives of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) who were later identified in a media investigation by Bellingcat, The Insider, and Der Spiegel. In April 2022 Kara-Murza was arrested and has since been imprisoned in Moscow for his public opposition to Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine.  He has been designated as a prisoner of conscience by Amnesty International. Kara-Murza is the author or contributor of several books and documentaries on Russian politics and history. He has worked as a journalist for Russian and Western media organizations, including Kommersant, Echo of Moscow, and the BBC; and writes a regular column for The Washington Post. He is a recipient of a number of international prizes, including the Geneva Summit Courage Award, the Sakharov Prize for Journalism as an Act of Conscience, and the Magnitsky Human Rights Award. He holds an M.A. (Cantab.) in History from Cambridge.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bill Browder was the largest foreign investor in Russia until 2005, when he was denied entry to the country for exposing corruption in Russian state-owned companies. Browder's colleague Sergei Magnitsky uncovered a massive tax scam totalling hundreds of billions of dollars, and the officials he accused of stealing the funds threw him into jail, where he was beaten, tortured, and then died in custody in 2009. Browder decided to act, pushing for accountability of those involved in Magnitsky's death. Browder's activism has led to the passing of the Global Magnitsky Act, which authorizes the US government to sanction international government officials believed to be behind human rights violations. Julia Macfarlane sits down with Browder to discuss his work targeting corrupt Russian officials while Sir Richard Dearlove, former head of Britain's Mi6, shares his insight on the complex trails of Russian money, who's hiding it, and who has access to it.

Bill Browder is one of the most influential human rights activists in the world today, working to hold human rights abusers to account. Browder architected and spearheaded the campaign to pass The Magnitsky Act, a federal law that allows for sanctions, freezing assets, and visa bans on foreign nationals who've committed human rights abuses. Browder, the founder of hedge fund firm Hermitage Capital Management, was once the largest foreign investor in Russia, where he took an activist investing approach by exposing high-level corruption among company managers and officials. He was expelled from Russia in 2005 and declared a threat to national security. Police later raided his Moscow offices, and those officials used the seized documents to commit a complex and massive fraud. This $230 million fraud was discovered by Browder's friend Sergei Magnitsky, a 37-year-old Russian lawyer. Magnitsky, a married father, was tortured and ultimately beaten to death while in a Russian prison in 2009. Magnitsky's murder changed Browder's life. From that day, he vowed to put aside his business and dedicate all his time and resources to exposing the corrupt Russians responsible for Magnitsky's death. He joins Julia La Roche on this episode taped in mid-June 2022 to discuss his newest book, “Freezing Order: A True Story of Russian Money Laundering, State-Sponsored Murder, and Surviving Vladimir Putin's Wrath.”

In this special extended episode, Anthony joins Bill Browder, founder and CEO of Hermitage Capital Management, head of the Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign and the best-selling author of Red Notice and Freezing Order. Together they discuss Bill's career path, from being the largest foreign investor in Russia to a declared “threat to national security” for exposing corruption in Russian state-owned companies. They delve into the story behind his associate, tax lawyer Sergei Magnitsky, who was imprisoned and eventually killed in detention in 2009 after attempting to expose a plot to extort $230 million worth of Russian tax money. Bill discusses the story of Magnitsky's arrest, imprisonment, torture and death, and how he has made it his “exclusive mission” to get justice for Sergei and his family. His latest book, Freezing Order: A True Story of Russian Money Laundering, Murder, and Surviving Vladimir Putin's Wrath, follows the money all the way to the top of Russia's murderous kleptocracy. Bill provides a personal account of the threats he has faced over the last 15 years and gives an insight into Putin's Russia, explaining why ​​even the most powerful regimes have weak points. Follow our guest on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Billbrowder Follow us:https://twitter.com/moochfm  https://twitter.com/scaramucci  Subscribe on YouTube: //bit.ly/3ICdZXx Sign up for our newsletter at:www.mooch.fm Created & produced by Podcast Partners:www.podcastpartners.com 

Bill Browder has been on a crusade against corruption in Russia since before he was labeled a "threat to national security" by Putin's regime. In his latest book, "Freezing Order: A True Story of Russian Money Laundering, State-Sponsored Murder,and Surviving Vladimir Putin's Wrath", Bill discusses the time period after the passage of the Magnitsky act and what else needs to be done to fight corruption in between stories of his real life being targeted by Putin and his oligarchs. David Rothkopf explores these issues as well as the chances of Putin's ouster, the impact of the war in Ukraine on the fight against corruption, and what more should be done in this thoughtful episode. Don't miss it.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/deepstateradio. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Bill Browder has been on a crusade against corruption in Russia since before he was labeled a "threat to national security" by Putin's regime. In his latest book, "Freezing Order: A True Story of Russian Money Laundering, State-Sponsored Murder,and Surviving Vladimir Putin's Wrath", Bill discusses the time period after the passage of the Magnitsky act and what else needs to be done to fight corruption in between stories of his real life being targeted by Putin and his oligarchs. David Rothkopf explores these issues as well as the chances of Putin's ouster, the impact of the war in Ukraine on the fight against corruption, and what more should be done in this thoughtful episode. Don't miss it.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/deepstateradio. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Bill Browder has reluctantly become a central figure in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He has been on a mission to impose sanctions on Russian's ill-begotten gains for about a decade. Now that his weapon of choice is being used to freeze the assets of Russian dirty money - the Magnitsky act - is it too little too late? His latest book, "Freezing Order: A True Story of Money Laundering, Murder, and Surviving Vladimir Putin's Wrath." See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Founder and CEO of Hermitage Capital Management joins Zerlina and Jess to discuss his new book Freezing Order: A True Story of Money Laundering, Murder, and Surviving Vladimir Putin's Wrath. Bill Browder is the founder and CEO of Hermitage Capital Management and was the largest foreign investor in Russia until 2005. Since 2009, when his lawyer, Sergei Magnitsky, was murdered in prison after uncovering a $230 million fraud committed by Russian government officials, Browder has been leading a campaign to expose Russia's endemic corruption and human rights abuses. Before founding Hermitage, Browder was vice president at Salomon Brothers. He holds a BA in economics from the University of Chicago and an MBA from Stanford Business School.Following his explosive New York Times bestseller Red Notice, Bill Browder returns with another gripping thriller chronicling how he became Vladimir Putin's number one enemy by exposing Putin's campaign to steal and launder hundreds of billions of dollars and kill anyone who stands in his way.When Bill Browder's young Russian lawyer, Sergei Magnitsky, was beaten to death in a Moscow jail, Browder made it his life's mission to go after his killers and make sure they faced justice. The first step of that mission was to uncover who was behind the $230 million tax refund scheme that Magnitsky was killed over. As Browder and his team tracked the money as it flowed out of Russia through the Baltics and Cyprus and on to Western Europe and the Americas, they were shocked to discover that Vladimir Putin himself was a beneficiary of the crime.As law enforcement agencies began freezing the money, Putin retaliated. He and his cronies set up honey traps, hired process servers to chase Browder through cities, murdered more of his Russian allies, and enlisted some of the top lawyers and politicians in America to bring him down. Putin will stop at nothing to protect his money. As Freezing Order reveals, it was Browder's campaign to expose Putin's corruption that prompted Russia's intervention in the 2016 US presidential election.At once a financial caper, an international adventure, and a passionate plea for justice, Freezing Order is a stirring morality tale about how one man can take on one of the most ruthless villains in the world—and win.

Sarah Collard looks at the Indigenous rates of electoral enrolment, Bill Browder talks about how the Magnitsky Acts around the world are working to sanction individual Russians and paleobiologist Thomas Halliday takes us back in time to some ancient landscapes.

The late Labor Senator Kimberley Kitching's legacy was the enactment of Magnitsky laws. But what are these laws and how are they being used against Russian oligarchs during the war in Ukraine?

Bill Browder is the founder and CEO of Hermitage Capital Management, which was the investment adviser to the largest foreign investment fund in Russia until 2005, when Bill was denied entry to the country and declared a “threat to national security” as a result of his battle against corporate corruption. His colleague, tax lawyer Sergei Magnitsky, was detained and murdered by Putin’s regime in 2009 for uncovering state corruption. In 2012, Browder successfully lobbied the US Congress to pass the Magnitsky Act, a bipartisan bill to punish those in Russia responsible for Magnitsky’s death. Bill is the author of the New York Times bestseller Red Notice, and the upcoming book Freezing Order, available April 12th. This week he joins Garry Kasparov and Uriel Epshtein for a discussion on corruption in Russia, how sanctions can weaken Putin along with his propaganda and war machines, and what it would take to make sanctions effective. Subscribe at renewdemocracy.substack.com

The conversation on Geopolitical Implications of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine during the International Studies Association 2022 Annual Convention featured Audrey Kurth Cronin, distinguished professor in the School of International Service and director of the Center for Security, Innovation, and New Technology at American University; Charles A. Kupchan, CFR senior fellow and professor of international affairs in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown University; and Kori Schake, senior fellow and director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. James M. Lindsay, senior vice president, director of studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg chair at CFR, moderated the discussion. LINDSAY: Good afternoon everyone. I am Jim Lindsay, senior vice president at the Council on Foreign Relations. It is my great pleasure to welcome you to today's on-the-record CFR luncheon discussion on the geopolitical implications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It is also my great pleasure to introduce a stellar set of panelists: Audrey Cronin, Charles Kupchan, and Kori Schake. I am going to keep my introductory remarks short even though I could talk at great length about each of them and the wonderful work they have done. Immediately to my left—at least geographically; not necessarily politically—(laughter)—is Audrey Cronin. She is distinguished professor in the School of International Service and director of the Center for Security, Innovation and New Technology at American University. She is the author of How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns. Her most recent book, Power to the People: How Open Technological Innovation is Arming Tomorrow's Terrorists was short-listed for the Lionel Gelber Prize and won the 2020 Airey Neave Prize. So congratulations on that, Audrey. CRONIN: Thanks, Jim. LINDSAY: In the center of the stage—not necessarily politically—(laughter)—is Charlie Kupchan. Charlie is a senior fellow at the Council, and a professor of international affairs at Georgetown University. From 2014 to 2017, Charlie served as special assistant to the president and senior director for European affairs on the staff of the National Security Council under President Barack Obama. Charlie's most recent book is Isolationism: A History of America's Efforts to Shield Itself from the World. Finally, to my far left—again, geographically; not necessarily politically—is Kori Schake. Kori is senior fellow and director of foreign and defense policy at the American Enterprise Institute. She has held policy positions across government including on the staff of the National Security Council, and at the U.S. State Department where she was deputy head of policy planning. Her most recent book is America vs. the West: Can the Liberal World Order be Preserved? So Audrey, Charlie, Kori, thank you very much for joining me. We have agreed that we will engage in a conversation for about twenty-five minutes. At that point we're going to open it up to everyone else in the room. Given that the title of our session is Geopolitical Implications of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine, I'd like to focus our conversation more on what the invasion means or doesn't mean for global order rather than focus on why Russia invaded or why Putin didn't get the quick victory that he anticipated. So where I'm going to start is a question for all of you. Vladimir Lenin once remarked that there are decades where nothing happens and weeks where decades happen. Now it certainly feels like we are in the latter situation right now, but is this really an inflection point in the global order, and if it is, is the best historical analogy for the current moment 1815? 1857? 1905? 1914? 1939? Pick whatever you want. Since I introduced you last, Kori, you get the first crack at the question. SCHAKE: No, I decline. I give Charlie the first crack at the question. (Laughs.) KUPCHAN: I was—you were going to buy time for me to think, so—(laughter). The era that most resembles—I'm going to— LINDSAY: I'm going to ask you the first question. Is this an inflection point? KUPCHAN: It's definitely an inflection point, and I guess the decade that most immediately comes to mind would be the 1890s, and that's because I think it's in the 1890s that a series of developments took place that enabled us to actually see the changes in the global balance of power that were taking place slowly, but it brought them to the surface. And that's because during that—it was during that decade the United States came online as a power with geopolitical ambition outside its neighborhood, picked a fight with the Spanish, turned into a colonizer of the Philippines and other places. Germany embarked on its High Seas Fleet in 1898. And so there was a kind of consolidation of a multi-polar setting that I think looked similar to today. And there was also a lot of domestic change and political fluidity that was the product of industrialization in Germany, in the United States. This was the progressive era dealing with large corporations, trusts, how do we tame them. This resonates with our age, both in terms of what's happening in other places, but also in here. There's a lot of economic or socio-economic dislocation that is taking place because of globalization. So that's—I think I'd say 1890s. SCHAKE: So can I now confess that I was actually reading the ISA tribute to the Trail of Tears so I had to punt to Charlie because I actually didn't know what question you were asking. I wasn't listening, Jim—(laughter)—and now that I know it's is this an inflection point—thank you, Charlie for stepping forward when I was unprepared—I don't actually think it's an inflection point. LINDSAY: Why not? SCHAKE: I think we are still litigating the end of the Cold War, that we assumed that the end was 1991 and 1992 with the unification of Germany, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the expansion of freedom, but in fact, Russia is more continuous with the Soviet Union than it is different from the Soviet Union under Vladimir Putin. And so, I think what we are seeing is a resurgent effort by the countries of the West to restrict Russian power when it is used for the suppression of the sovereignty and freedom of others. So I think we are still litigating the end of the Cold War. I hope it will be an inflection point because we succeed and we will end up with a Russia that either lives within the existing rules of the Western order or changes. LINDSAY: OK, Audrey, so we have a vote for an inflection point. We have a vote for no inflection point. Where do you weigh in? CRONIN: Well, I think that whenever we talk about historical analogies, I get really nervous because Ernest May's book had a huge impact on me early in my career—Thinking in Time—and I think personally I'm going to split the difference, and we can choose from different analogies. So I think we do have a lot of what Charlie has talked about; certainly at the end of the nineteenth century you had globalization, you had inequality at tremendous levels. You had a huge monopolization of major companies that were controlling more and more. You had the maturation of fossil-fuel-based economies, which is quite similar to the maturation of digitally based economies, and also the equivalent to oil, I would say, is—many have said—the equivalent to oil and coal is data. The data economy is becoming quite mature. And so I think the broader context is more the way that Charlie laid it out. But I also agree with you, Kori, because I think that, you know, 1947 is a period where I would look back and say we were—I mean, I did write my first book on the negotiations over Austria, so I see that as being very comparable to what we're thinking about in some ways with respect to Ukraine—or what the Ukrainians are thinking about. So I can certainly see the continuation with respect to the Soviet Union and Russia there, too. So I think we—you know, we have to pick and choose a little bit. LINDSAY: OK. Kori, I want to come back to you, and you can throw this question to Charlie or Audrey if you want— SCHAKE: (Laughs)—I'm listening now, I promise. LINDSAY: OK. You know, you have written a book asking about whether the liberal world order can be preserved, and you have mentioned that we have seen a remarkable show of unity and action in the West. I think the West as a term has sort of gotten a new lease on life. But the fact that there is unity at the start of the crisis doesn't mean there will be unity at the end of the crisis. How do you assess the chances for Western cooperation to continue to be sustained? Do you think it's temporary? Or is there an opportunity here for it to be long lasting? SCHAKE: That's a really good question, and the honest answer is I don't know. But I do see—and things are about to get a lot more painful for the countries of the West economically and possibly even politically to sustain the very hard line we have taken, and not just because it looks like Russia is going to turn off the gas pumps unless Western countries will pay in rubles to get Russia around some of the creative economic sanctions that the West has put forward, but also the inability to export wheat from Ukraine and natural resources from Russia. This is going to be a huge humanitarian crisis. We are going to have a food crisis, most particularly in the developing world. And that, too, will put pressure on Western governments. The good news is the amazing creativity of the treasury departments of the Western countries to come up new tools to try and impose economic costs on Russia. The bad news is it's not yet clear what the second-order effects of those tools are going to be, and who they're going to hurt, and who they're going to help as they—as they sink their roots. So we have set sail in very choppy waters. We did it for very good reasons, and I think, though, that two things will help Western countries hold together. The first is Russia is so obviously in the wrong here, and in a way, that's dangerous—not just to Ukraine; it's dangerous to this system of rules that have made the West safe and prosperous; namely borders only changed by consent, and sovereignty is inherent in any state—large, small, weak, powerful. So having the German SPD chancellor almost triple German defense spending this year, to commit to the NATO 2 percent next year as opposed to 2035, which was Germany's opening position, to start sending arms to Ukraine, and to agree to wean Germany off of Russian oil and gas by the end of this year—I don't see how you walk that back. He planted his sword, and I think that will hold—since Germany is one of the weakest links in Western unity on the sanctions that have been taken against Russia, it will be very hard for others to walk back if Germany holds the line. And the second thing is the war in Ukraine is taking on the trappings of a moral crusade, right? There are good guys in this and there are bad guys in this. And it will be very hard for a country of the West to—after all they have already said, look in the face what Russia is doing—you know, kidnapping mayors from towns they have occupied, shelling apartment buildings, and it was easier for us to look away in Afghanistan, in Syria, and in other places. It will be harder for them to look away in a neighboring country as it takes on this overtly moralistic overtone. LINDSAY: Let me ask you, Audrey, since you have written about Austria, do you see the potential for a negotiated deal that could stick, particularly in light of the point that Kori just made that this is starting—at least in the United States—to turn into a moral crusade, and it's very difficult to compromise when you are supposedly fighting over good versus evil? CRONIN: Yes, well, neutrality is not necessarily good versus evil. I mean, it's a different plane altogether, right? So you're talking geopolitics. You can have good or evil regimes that are neutral. So I don't really see the question of whether Ukraine could be neutral in those kind of crusade terms. I think it's all up to the Ukrainians and whether or not they can negotiate a deal that serves their interests. And there's a bunch of key things that I'm really worried about. One of them is they are talking about not joining any kind of foreign alliances. So the details on that are very, very important. So if that's part of an agreement, who decides what a foreign alliance is, is going to be very important. The second thing is that security guarantees—they want security guarantees, and they're saying from the United States, France, and Britain, and that's essentially an Article 5 commitment. That is quite potentially dangerous to NATO, so it could be quite destabilizing depending upon the details. What if the security guarantor were China, as well? What if Russia were insisting upon that as the agreement. So the devil is in the details in this agreement and to what degree are the Russians going to insist that there be demilitarization? I think that if the Ukrainians become neutral, it's going to have to be very important that they maintain robust defenses. And then the last thing I'm really worried about is what's it going to look like. What is the territory going to be? Because there is going to be partition, probably. They are going to have to give something up, and it would be the Donbas and Crimea probably—I'm guessing—and this is up to the Ukrainians, not us. But, where is that line going to be? Some people think that it could be along the Dnieper River. Some people think it could only be the Donbas region in Ukraine as I've just said. But exactly what it is that they're neutralizing is crucial. We could have actually a divided Ukraine that begins to look a little bit like the divided Germany after the Second World War. LINDSAY: Charlie, you have written in the pages of Foreign Affairs just last year, that there is a need for a great power concert. But given what we've just talked about and Kori's notion that we're really sort of moralizing this conflict, what are the prospects for a concert of great powers, and what would they cooperate on in this current context? KUPCHAN: Let me tie that question back to Kori's comment because you all—you clearly want us to disagree to get some friction here. LINDSAY: I want you to disagree nicely. (Laughter.) KUPCHAN: I will be very nice, but I—you know, I think there are some differences that should be delineated. Is this a moment of Western rejuvenation? Yes, on some level. But I also think it is a wake-up moment that will force us to confront the prospect of liberal overreach that we, at the end of the Cold War, thought that the order that we built was going to be universalized, and to some extent I think we are seeing blowback from that assumption, and may need to take a more conservative approach to the expansion of the liberal rules-based system that is more focused on us than it is on bringing others in. And I would point out that there is a big liberal democracy out there called India that has not decided to stand with the liberal democracies of the world in this conflict. Second point: I'm more worried than you are, Kori, that this kind of resurgence of moralism and Western strength will last, and that's because all the problems that we were concerned about before February 24 are still there, and in fact, they're getting worse. Gas prices are going up, egg prices are going up, grain and bread is going up. What—four million or close to four million refugees have arrived in Europe, and not too far off the Europeans are going to wake up and say, holy crap, most of these aren't going to go home. Where are we going to put them? How are we going to deal with this? And immigration has been really one of the toughest issues for Europe. So I do worry that as this clock moves forward, as we head into the midterms here in the United States, this kind of burst of bipartisanship will be just a burst, and that the Republicans are going to get their knives out—I'll defer to you on the Republican Party—but I don't think the America First crowd is gone; it's just quiet for now because it doesn't play well. I expect it to come back vocally as we get closer to the midterms. Final comment: I think the impulse, Jim, is to say forget a global concert; it's over. And to some extent I agree with that because Richard and I wrote a global concert depends upon the absence of an aggressor state. We have an aggressor state. It's called Russia. It has invaded its neighbor. But I would also point out that we cannot afford to go back to a world that looks like the Cold War. We are in the boat together on pandemics, on climate change, on proliferation, on global economic interdependence. So I do think we need to talk about either a post-Putin Russia or even a Putin Russia, and what can be done after the dust settles in Ukraine to figure out how to make sure that the broader global agenda that we face doesn't go by the wayside. LINDSAY: Kori, I want to get you to respond to Charlie's point that India has not joined in the effort to sanction. And I should note it's not just India; it's Brazil, it's South Africa. Indeed most of the countries of the global south have not rallied behind Western sanctions and in fact have criticized them. So what does that mean for the future of the rules-based order that you have spoken about? SCHAKE: I think it's a fabulous challenge. So I have a couple of reactions to it. The first is I would be doing exactly what they are doing if I were a developing country, an emergent economy because Germans can have the luxury of paying double gas prices. It's an incredibly wealthy country. The government can float bonds and pay for things in the future because there is a lot of confidence in the dynamism of the German economy. That's not the case for most emergent economies, and they have more pressing problems than the problems we are worried about. And so I think the first thing is we need to not be so judgmental about the fact that they are solving other harder problems than what we are trying to recruit them to help us with. Second, I also think that's good alliance management because allies very often disagree. They even disagree on really important things, so it's reasonable that people who are not tied as tightly into the benefits of the liberal international order are questioned more what they're going to offer for its continuation. So that's the second thing. The third thing is I think there's a difference between not wanting to be counted on something and opposing it. And India is an interesting case in this point—example in this case, sorry—because on the one hand they get a lot of their military equipment from Russia, and they have a budding, burgeoning relationship with the United States, Australia, and Japan; not because of Russia but because of China, and trying to figure out how to synchronize the gas pedal and the clutch on their series of concerns is actually genuinely difficult. And so, again, I don't think we should be too judgmental about this. But we should work hard to win the argument and explain to them why it is in their interest that countries cannot change borders by force. That's what Pakistan has attempted to do to India. That's what China is attempting to do to India. And they have a stake in a system in which all of us work together to prevent that. LINDSAY: Do you want to jump in here, Audrey? CRONIN: Yes, I was—so jumping off of that point, actually, Kori, isn't it interesting that China, the great defender of sovereignty, does not seem to be interested in defending Ukraine's sovereignty, and is quite interested in supporting the aggressor in this case. But getting back to India, I think the fact that only within the last two years the Indians have been fighting the Chinese in the Himalayas. You know, they have a lot of other things to worry about. And the other thing I would say is that, what major power war can you think of where what is essentially the non-aligned movement in the world has ever aligned with those who are currently defending the global order. And then the last thing that I'll say—to disagree a little bit since I think that's what you want—disagree a little bit with Charlie is that I don't think we could have a concert of Europe right now or a concert of great powers because we have a lot of new actors that are as powerful as great powers are in certain dimensions, including the major tech companies who are having a massive influence geopolitically on this crisis. So, we are not in 1815. We are in a different situation with a lot of new stakeholders and a different economic situation than the one that existed then. LINDSAY: Audrey, can I draw you out on that point about technology companies and the role they are playing? Can you just sort of spell it out for me—how you see them influencing or being influenced by the conflict? CRONIN: Yeah, so in some respects the tech companies have been—have sort of been bunged by reality because they have been very poor at dealing with situations of war. So you've got Meta that has been—you know, Facebook, and Instagram, and WhatsApp have all been shut down in Russia, and now Meta is being criminalized by the Putin administration—Putin regime—and so, because Meta claimed that they would go to an exception of their moderation rules and allow the Ukrainians to cry for blood against the Russians, this made them seem hypocritical and gave the Russians the excuse to criminalize them within Russia. So this whole concept of neutrality where—neutrality in terms of communications that they have sort of tied their whole identity to for many decades is proving to be extremely frayed. Meta is now being, you know, as I said, criminalized, and it's giving the Russians a greater argument for why it is that, you know, they can clamp down within Russia. And so, as a result, the Russian people are getting less information. For the first time that I can remember, the New York Times has pulled its people from Moscow. All of the major bureaus have either closed down or pulled people. You've got a, you know, crackdown that started to occur before this crisis where Google and Apple representatives were being harassed and, you know, very, very severely. There is kind of a hostage-taking approach to making sure that there were people there that the Putin administration could control. So I don't see Meta as having been very successful. However, then you've also got Elon Musk and Starlink. Look at the role that Starlink has played in Ukraine. I mean, he's the one who in many respects are keeping the Ukrainians connected, and that's not unrelated to how this crisis is going. Starlink, with its two thousand individual-sized satellites which are very difficult to shoot down—this has been a huge boon and a support for Ukraine. So I think that major tech companies are an important stakeholder in the international geopolitical realm that we don't put enough emphasis upon. LINDSAY: Kori, did you have a two-finger? SCHAKE: Yeah, I wanted to tag along on Dr. Cronin's very good—Dr. Cronin's very good point and say that it's not just— CRONIN: Kori, call me Audrey. We've known each other for decades. (Laughter.) SCHAKE: Thank you, my friend. It's not just the big tech companies. What we are looking at is a war in which civil society—business, private charities—all these different dimensions are playing extraordinary roles, right? Chef José Andrés is not only buffeting Poland and other countries that are taking in enormous numbers of refugees, he is also running aid convoys to Odessa. We could be in a point before this war is over where you have private charities breaking sieges of Ukrainian cities and the Russians trying to hold the sieges. You see the hackers group, Anonymous, going after the Russians something fierce, and that's where the values, the moral crusade part of this matters because civil society in free societies are taking it upon themselves—often beyond the control of the government and without the government's blessing—to do things that they think will help the people they think are good guys in the war. LINDSAY: I see you've done a two-finger, Charlie. I'll let you do that, but I'm going to ask one last question of you before we bring the rest of the room in. And it is what do you make of President Xi's decision to back Russia rather than to stand up for the principle of sovereignty? Are Russia and China now joined at the hip? How should U.S. statecraft respond to that? But I know you wanted to get a two-finger first. KUPCHAN: Yes. One quick two-finger to Dr. Professor Cronin. CRONIN: Oh, please. (Laughter.) KUPCHAN: And that is that—and this will just be in defense of the concert system, and I just came from a roundtable—I see Chet Crocker and others who were there—on concerts, one of their assets being the flexibility to put at the table Google, and Meta, and International Rescue Committee, and other groups precisely because they are not formal U.N. Security Council bodies. But you seem skeptical— CRONIN: You are—you are redefining the terms. KUPCHAN: —so let's not let you talk. (Laughter.) To your question, Jim, I think that the Chinese were a little bit uncertain at first, and they said some things that suggested that they were going to back Russia and some things that said they weren't so comfortable with the disruption that's being caused. My sense is that they have now coalesced around standing fairly firmly behind Putin. And I think that's because this is a war that, on balance, is probably good for China. And that's because it pushes Russia more fully into China's embrace and turns Russia irretrievably into the junior partner. It distracts the United States and Europe from the Asia-Pacific. We're going to be focused on the new central front for the foreseeable future, and I think the Chinese like that, just like they like the fact that we were spinning our wheels for twenty years in Afghanistan and Iraq. The big question mark in my mind is will they go the next step. Will they provide economic assistance and military assistance? Will they bail out a Russian economy that could be collapsing? And I don't know the answer to that. My guess is they're going to be careful not to see secondary sanctions get imposed. But one issue that I do worry about—and then I'll throw this out for discussion—is, are the Chinese going to look at what's happening here, and are we going to look at what's happening here, and say globalization and interdependence has become too dangerous, and as a consequence, we're moving into what could become an era of deglobalization? That's scary in a world in which two-thirds of the countries in the world already trade more with China than with us. So deglobalization may be unstoppable, but it's not necessarily good for the U.S. LINDSAY: OK, fair enough. On that note, I'm going to bring the rest of the room into our conversation. I want to remind everybody that this meeting is on the record. If you would like to ask a question, raise a hand, and please stand. Wait for the microphone to arrive, then state your name and affiliation before asking your question. And I do ask that you ask a question. Right here in the front—right here. CRONIN: (Laughs.) The race is on. Q: Thank you. Victoria Hui at University of Notre Dame. These days people talk about today it's Ukraine, tomorrow it's Taiwan. So do you think— LINDSAY: Can you hold it a little closer? Q: Oh. LINDSAY: Thank you. Q: People say today it's Ukraine; tomorrow it's Taiwan. So do you think that today it's Ukraine means— tomorrow it's Taiwan means that there is a bigger chance that there will be a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, or Ukraine—the experiences that we are seeing is actually going to make Taiwan safer? Thank you. LINDSAY: So have the chances of an invasion of Taiwan gone up or gone down? SCHAKE: So I honestly don't know. Let me tell you the two arguments. The first argument would be what the Chinese could learn from Russia's invasion of Ukraine is it's shocking that the Western world actually can pull together when it's serious. Second, the diabolical creativity of Western financial institutions to develop new tools in market—to affect markets, again, should be scary to them. Third, the only way to tell whether a military is any good at what it's doing is to fight it, and I—like a whole bunch of other people thought the Russian military was an awful lot better than it is. And China hasn't fought in a long time, and so whether they would have the grit for this fight or the ability to do the orchestration of logistics and air power, getting across a hundred miles of choppy water in an amphibious operation on Taiwan—that's a pretty sophisticated military task. So lots of reasons they should take caution from that. Not at all clear to me that Xi Jinping will take caution from that—that he may very well be arrogant enough to think, well, of course the Russians are terrible at this, but my military is great at this. And of course the Ukrainians feel Western. The Taiwanese are starting to feel Western; we'd better shut this down before it goes much further. Like I could see arguments where he would think the West would never have the stomach to impose on China the kind of economic restrictions they are imposing. So it's touch and go I think. KUPCHAN: Two quick thoughts: the first is that I think on balance it makes a Chinese attack less likely, and that's simply because the Chinese are watching what's happening to Russia, and they're probably going to calculate we don't want to go down that rabbit hole; that does not look good to us. My second observation is that I think it probably makes sense for the United States to end strategic ambiguity—not to change the One China policy, but to say we're going to defend Taiwan because I think part of what happened in Ukraine is we were ambiguous, and the Russians called our bluff. So if we intend to defend Taiwan, let's say so. If we don't intend to, let's say so. But living with this ambiguity, it seems to me, invites trouble. We just learned that in Ukraine. LINDSAY: Charlie, how do you square that with your observation earlier that you worry that the America First movement is just sort of in abeyance right now and will come back with great force? Because that would seem to be the kind of commitment that they would oppose. KUPCHAN: You know, it is a huge and interesting question, and if Trump is reelected, I don't know what the future of NATO and U.S. alliances in Asia will be. I do think, though, that the impetus for the America First movement came out of the forever wars, and that if you look at the Trump administration, they were actually pretty tough on China and supportive of Taiwan. LINDSAY: The administration was; the president wasn't necessarily— KUPCHAN: President not so, but the Republicans are—you know, they're pretty gung-ho on China, and so I think that this geopolitical realignment that we have been undertaking: out of wars of choice in the Middle East let's focus on meat-and-potatoes issues in Eurasia is good because I think that's the sweet spot in American politics. LINDSAY: Audrey, do you want to jump in here? CRONIN: Just two things on the Taiwan question and also the relationship between Russia and China—I think firstly that China is going to find that it has developed a kind of a vassal state now and, you know, the Russians are going to be depending upon China for weapons, for buying their oil, for technology, for evading sanctions, and I'm not sure that China, over time, is going to find that this is a good deal for them, so I think that may—in theory—change the desire that they might have had to take aggressive action against Taiwan. I think you can see it both ways, though. I agree with Kori. I'm not sure that it's possible to say definitively that way. But the second thing I would say is that Taiwan has a lot to learn from what Ukraine has done. So, you know, urban warfare; using easily accessible and cheap technologies; engaging in, you know, skirmishes; fighting forward; not depending upon huge legacy systems—instead using the kinds of tactics that we associate with insurgents. I think that Taiwan would be extremely good at that, and they're going to learn from Ukraine. LINDSAY: I think it's a really important point that both sides can learn from the events in Ukraine. If you want to ask a question in the back of the room, you're really going to have to stand up and wave because I'm not sure I can see that far back. But we have a question right here. Q: Hi. Jim Morrow, University of Michigan. LINDSAY: Go blue! Q: It's clear that the Europeans are going to come close to meeting their commitments to increase their military spending. My question is do you also think that they'll go further to create something like a really unified European military, and also to take the political changes to have a coherent European foreign policy? And then the other part of the question is should the United States encourage this because it seems to me there's two sides to this. One is greater burden sharing—the Europeans can carry more, but at the same time, it will decrease U.S. influence on security and defense issues. SCHAKE: Those are great questions. So I think the result of Russia's aggression is going to be Europeans clinging more tightly to the United States because when we are scared, we like to hold hands with each other. And even watching how awful the Russian military is at the profession of arms doesn't appear to be making our European friends and allies any less desirous of having the United States in the mix of it. So I don't anticipate that the increased spending is going to be external to NATO or to build European capabilities autonomous of the United States. I do think, however, we should be encouraging closer political and even military cooperation among the Europeans for exactly the reason you said, which is after watching the performance of this Russian military, the Poles could defeat the Russians pretty easily. And once you start mixing all the NATO countries in, our opposition to greater European autonomy has actually encouraged the Europeans to think of themselves as weak, and they are not. And we should want allies that feel their strength and are confident in their strength as a way of better balancing the risks all of us run together. KUPCHAN: I would just add, Jim, that I think what's going on in Germany is an inflection point because if there were to be a development on the European side that changed, in a consequential way, Europe's defense capability, it had to happen in Germany. And Germany was the laggard. I mean, its military has atrophied, deteriorated in a way that's hard to overstate. And if there is to be a kind of European pillar, it has to start with Germany, and it looks like they are starting. But I agree with Kori that this is not the beginning of Macron's strategic autonomy, and that's because France is alone in having a view of Europe as standing apart from the United States and flexing its muscles on the global stage. Just about every other EU member state wants a stronger Europe that's tethered to the United States; not that goes off on its own. That's good for them, and I think it's good for us. CRONIN: Yeah, the only thing I would add is let's look at what the non-NATO members have done to get a sense of how important this shift is. I mean, if you look at the tremendous increase in spending—defense spending in Sweden, increase in defense spending in Finland; the fact that Switzerland, which is not a member of NATO or the EU is now abiding by the sanctions—you know, this is an inflection point if only from that perspective. The Europeans are drawing together in anger and frustration, and it is unprecedented. LINDSAY: We'll go over here to the right side of the room. Q: Hi, deRaismes Combes from American University. Thank you so much for an interesting conversation. I'm still thinking about this notion of historical analogies that you started with, and I'm wondering if you think Ukraine is teaching us anything about 21st century geopolitics in the digital age that we just haven't really grasped before in terms of where this is heading, both specifically with Ukraine, but also with Taiwan and with the broader geopolitical system and the liberal world order. So thank you. LINDSAY: Do you want to take first crack at that, Audrey? CRONIN: Yes, I mean, that's a huge question, and the answer is yes—(laughs)—it's teaching us a lot about geopolitics in the digital age. Some of this I've already talked about. I think that major digital actors need to be parts of this Concert of Europe that we're talking about, the concert of the great powers, because I think they play an enormous role in affecting the future and how things are evolving. You know, I think that we see a lot with respect specifically to Ukraine, which is that the fact that Ukraine had a pretty advanced technology element to their economy; they are very advanced in aeronautics; they had their own drone industry, and their use of drones has come very naturally to Ukrainian citizens—you know, those who are volunteering. You know, this shows you that—again, getting back to the question on Taiwan—countries that are advanced in terms of their digital capabilities, and their populations are able to use digital technologies effectively, are going to be, I think, more successful as we move into the 21st century. LINDSAY: Kori, you want to jump in here? SCHAKE: Yeah, two quick, additional points. One is that one of the surprises of this war was that we all expected it was going to start with a cyber Armageddon, right, that power stations were—power systems were going to go down all over Ukraine, that the government wouldn't be able to communicate. All of these fancy cyber things were supposed to happen, and they didn't. And it looks like they didn't happen for three reasons: first, is the Russians gave us so much lead time of what they were potentially doing that NSA and CYBERCOM were able to forward deploy to Ukraine and other places teams to assist in the defense of the architectures. Second, the Russians—for reasons I don't understand—were evidently more restrained than anybody anticipated. Maybe it's the nature of cyber tools that once you unleash them your adversaries can use them back against you. Maybe we are seeing an assured destruction leveling. And the third thing is it's just easier to blow stuff up—(laughter)—and so the Russians blew stuff up. And so one big thing we expected was going to happen actually turns out not to be as significant in modern warfare. But Audrey's point about the technological sophistication—I mean, the Ukrainian government dispensing an app so that people can identify Russian troops as they come. That gave them country-wide situational awareness. A couple hundred thousand people are actively using the app, so you get societal resilience and you also get better information. It is really extraordinary. LINDSAY: Did you want to— KUPCHAN: Just one quick sentence on the—how important the information space has been. You know, the Biden administration I think deserves credit for stealing the march from the Russians, right? The Russians have spent the last five, ten years cleaning our clocks in the information space. I think that the Biden people reversed it. They got out ahead. They released intel that they probably shouldn't have released, but they did it anyway, and I really think it has made a difference. LINDSAY: Going to go all the way to the back of the room. Q: Thank you. I'm Chandler Rosenberger from Brandeis University. And I wanted to follow up on this point about resilience because I think we've talked a lot about tactics. We've talked a lot about specific things that the Ukrainians have done. But I think the most impressive thing about them is how resilient they have been militarily and as a society. And I wonder if that tells us something about the advantages of a kind of, you know, liberal, democratic, civic order in which people feel deeply invested and its ability to survive an assault from an authoritarian states where the soldiers seem not to know what they are fighting for, that there's—maybe we can have more faith in that kind of democratic social resilience than we might have had otherwise. LINDSAY: Who wants to take first crack at the question? CRONIN: I will. LINDSAY: OK, Audrey, you're closest, got your finger up first. CRONIN: All right, well, so yes, I think that we are going to learn a lot about societal resilience, but I think we have to wait. I think we have to wait and find out how this plays out because Kori's point about it being a lot easier to just blow things up, that is also still true. So if all you want to do is crush a country and, you know, occupy that country by killing a lot of civilians and, you know, targeting corridors of humanitarian fleeing civilians, if all you want to do is kill a lot of people, I think the Russians are capable of doing that. And I don't think we can yet come to full conclusions about how strong that resilience is going to be to stand up to that. We're still pretty early in this fight. I hope from my heart that what you are saying is what we learn from this conflict. But we're only, what, about a month and a half into it—five weeks into it, so I hope that resilience is what we get out of it. SCHAKE: So it clearly makes a difference in the willingness of soldiers to run risks in a fight, right? We see the comparative difference in Russia and Ukraine, and I do think that that's partly about societal resilience. In better militaries than the Russians there's also the professionalism that gives resilience, right? They're not fighting for me; they are fighting for the guy standing next to them kind of resilience. Temperamentally I want so much to believe it's true, and yet, I think there are a couple of factors that make Ukraine uniquely resilient against a Russian invasion. First, the terrors of Soviet occupation. There are still Ukrainians alive who experienced the Holodomor that Russia—the Soviet Union imposed on Ukraine. They feel like they are fighting for survival. They don't feel like they are fighting for a particular kind of government—in addition to a particular kind of government. The second thing is that I think it matters that the World War II generation is still alive in our countries because I think they have a slightly different perspective. But let me add one hopeful note. When Jim Mattis and I did the surveys of American public attitudes about military issues for our book, Warriors and Citizens several years ago, the weirdest anomaly in the data was that the attitudes of people under twenty-five most closely approximated the attitudes of people who had lived through the Great Depression and World War II: that the world feels fundamentally uncertain and unsafe to them, and that does give a kind of resilience that I think the intervening generations might not have to the same extent. LINDSAY: Charlie? KUPCHAN: Yeah, what I'm sort of ruminating on, vis-à-vis this question, is how did Putin get it so wrong, right? Because we will look back at this crisis and say Putin made Ukraine great again. The Ukraine that he envisaged did exist, but it was—it was pre-2014 and probably all the way going back to the Orange Revolution. You know, you used to go to Mariupol, or Donetsk, or Lugansk, and it was full of Russians, and they felt like Russians, and they affiliated with Russia. That's gone, right? They have come together around a strong Ukrainian national identity, including the president, who grew up speaking Russian, right? How did he get elected? He got elected by, you know, pro-Russian and Russian speakers in eastern and southern Ukraine. That's gone, right? He's now a rock star because he's giving his middle finger to Putin. And so the country has really come together as a consequence of Russian aggression. It's a kind of blowback that the Russians are going to have to live with forever. LINDSAY: This gentleman here with the dark jacket. Q: Fen Hampson from north of the border. The panel—I've forgotten who it was—raised the interesting question about Russia with Putin and Russia without Putin. And I'd like to ask you, if and when this crisis ends, what sort of relationship do we have with Russia if Putin is still around? Do we walk back sanctions? Do we take oligarchs off Magnitsky? Do we stop proceedings in the International Criminal Court? Do we welcome them back to the various organizations they've been thrown out of, and that includes the G-20? And if he leaves—for whatever reason—you know, is Russian going to be easier to deal with or more difficult to deal with? And I would say, you know, be careful what you wish for because he has provided stability—and I'm not defending him—but one can envisage a scenario where the security vacuum extends now to Russia as others see weakness in Moscow. LINDSAY: Charlie, do you want to take a first crack at that? KUPCHAN: A lot depends, Fen, on how this ends, and my best guess is that it will not end cleanly, and it will not end well. Audrey already mentioned some of the provisions that are tentatively on the table. I have a hard time imagining them seeing the light of day. Who is going to guarantee Ukraine's security? Is Zelenskyy going to get the support of the Rada to change the constitution? Is he going to have the domestic support to recognize Crimea, Mariupol, and Donetsk, and Lugansk as Russian? So I'm guessing that what will end up here is another frozen conflict in which Russia takes a big bite out of eastern Ukraine, probably doesn't go into Kyiv because it's not going very well, and then we sort of have to say, well, the fighting is over. They did more, they took more; now what? And I guess I'm enough of a realist to say that, you know, we're going to have to go back to something that looks more like the Cold War which mixes containment and engagement. And that's because there is simply too much at stake to put Russia in the penalty box and throw the key away. And so I would say that even in a post-war Putin Russia as opposed to a post-Putin Russia, we're going to have to find ways of getting some difficult hedging cooperation on arms control, on the question of energy issues—I mean, there's a lot of stuff here that we can't just throw away. LINDSAY: I want to get in one last question because we're nearing the end of our time, so we'll go to that young lady over there, if we can, and then I'll have to ask the panelists to be short in the response. Q: Hi, I hope this won't be too long. My name is Eve Clark-Benevides. I'm from SUNY Oswego. And I—there was an editorial in the New York Times yesterday that infuriated me, but it has been really coming up during this whole talk. Bret Stephens argues maybe we're being a little bit too premature, kind of celebrating that Putin has miscalculated. Maybe actually Putin really only wanted eastern Ukraine all along. He never really thought—and that a lot of the goals that Putin has wanted over time—getting rid of the free press, getting the moderates to move out, and really having full power over the Russian society—is really coming to pass. So this is kind of a piggyback off the last question that, really, are we going to see sort of these steps to disengage economically and politically with Russia—you know, Britain realizing that maybe having Russian money completely floating their economy—we're trying to divest. Do you think that maybe in this new Cold War—whatever occurs—that we're going to continue to really try to get away from oligarch money in the political systems in the West? LINDSAY: OK, Audrey, you had your hand up first so— CRONIN: Yes, so when it comes to our analyses of Putin, I think it's a mistake for us to personalize this as much as we are. You know, put aside this unfortunate comment about potentially regime change in the way that it was interpreted. I think that the Russians have always, throughout their history, gone back and forth between kind of a Slavophile approach and a Westernizer approach, and Putin is a Slavophile. So what we're seeing right now is a reawakening of Russian nationalism, a move back exactly along the lines that you just suggested to having greater control over their domestic population, getting rid of some of the threats that Putin personally feels are quite dangerous; you know, domestic movements within Russia. I hate to see all of this happen, but yes, it does feel quite familiar. I mean, I spend my—some of my teenage years living in Moscow in the American embassy. I remember the Cold War; I'm old enough to remember all of that. And I think we are going to have to move back to that kind of relationship where sometimes we can deal on certain things and at other times we can't deal on those things, we deal on other things. But the worst thing that we could do would be to make Russia a complete pariah because, if you understand European history, you also know that anytime you have a complete pariah that is aside from the whole system, you are more likely to end up in a major war. LINDSAY: Charlie or Kori? SCHAKE: So Putin—I don't buy the argument that Putin is a grand strategic genius and invaded Ukraine in order to crackdown domestically for two reasons: first because he is already cracking down. It was just a slow strangulation—CREF, Nemtsov, and Navalny—and so he didn't need the Ukraine invasion to be more repressive domestically. But the second thing is I think the failure of Russian force and arms in Ukraine is actually making his domestic position much more tenuous in ways that I think are unpredictable from the outside to understand. My answer to—just quickly, my answer to the what do we—how do we deal with Putin still in power, I think it would be a good thing for us to find ways for a strategically smaller, weaker, and humiliated Russia to have a U.S. counterparty on some things that are important to them and to us. It will make Ukraine's longer-term future and Russia's longer-term future easier to handle if we, who have had so little invested in this fight, step forward and help integrate Russia in ways that we can. KUPCHAN: To the question of was Putin a grand master and he intended this from the beginning, I don't see it, and that's because he could have done the eastern bit at any time, and he wouldn't have needed to put almost two hundred thousand troops all around Ukraine, including in Belarus. He could have just gone into the separatist territories, turned south, gone to Mariupol and connected to Crimea, and called it a day. I think what's happening here is he's changing the goalposts because his original goal of regime change and the occupation of the country, it does not look feasible anymore, although I agree with my colleagues that he might just keep bombing for another few months. Who knows what will happen? But the key question in my mind is whatever that ultimate disposition is, can he portray it as a victory? Can he sell it—not just to the Russian people, but to the Russia elite system, which is showing more discontent than I think we've ever seen in modern Russia. I don't think Putin is about to go, but I do think that this is a war that is going to loosen his grip on power, and anything could come of that. It could mean he goes and we get a worse outcome. After all, a lot of the people around him share his views. It could also be that we get a more benign outcome. We don't know, and as a consequence, I think we just have to hedge our bets. LINDSAY: Well, that brings us to the end of our time here. I want to thank everyone in the room for joining us for this conversation on the geopolitical implications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. I want to do a shout-out to Irina Faskianos and her team— AUDIENCE MEMBER: Yay, Irina! (Applause.) LINDSAY: —for arranging today's thing. And I want to say thank you to our three guests: Kori Schake, Charlie Kupchan, and Audrey Cronin for their expertise. (Applause.) (END

APAC stocks traded mostly higher following the gains in the US where growth stocks spearheaded a recovery.Russia and Ukraine could pause hostilities as part of a deal which would see Ukraine abandon its push for NATO membership, according to FT.European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.8% after the cash market closed higher by 0.5% yesterday.DXY holds onto 99.0 status, EUR/USD remains on a 1.09 handle, USD/JPY retreated back below 124.00.Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK, Speeches from Fed's Williams, Bostic & Harker, ECB's Kazimir, 7yr supply from the US.US TRADEUS stocks finished positive as a growth/mega cap rally helped markets shrug off the initial choppy mood, while upcoming Russia-Ukraine talks and a decline in oil prices facilitated the risk appetite.S&P 500 +0.7% at 4,576, Nasdaq 100 +1.6% at 14,987, Dow Jones +0.3% at 34,956, Russell 2000 Flat at 2,078.NOTABLE US HEADLINESUS Economic Adviser Rouse said the US does not expect a food shortage and sees inflation to ease this year into next, according to Reuters.US Moderate Democrat Senator Manchin said he doesn't support taxing unrealised gains of the wealthy and opposes reversing fossil fuel tax benefits, according to Bloomberg.US House Budget Committee Chairman US official Yarmuth said Congress may need to raise the debt limit around October 1st, according to Reuters.US Senate voted 68-28 to pass the USD 52bln chips subsidy bill which paves the way for talks in an attempt to reach a compromise with the House, according to Reuters.US DoJ backs legislation targeting big tech such as Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL), according to WSJGEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKSRussia is no longer reportedly requesting Ukraine be “denazified” in ceasefire talks and is prepared to let Kyiv join the EU if it remains militarily non-aligned as part of ongoing ceasefire negotiations, according to FT citing sources. Furthermore, the two sides are reportedly discussing a pause in hostilities as part of a possible deal that would see Ukraine abandon its push for a NATO membership in exchange for security guarantees and the prospect to join the EU although a deal is not yet finalised, according to the FT sources.US President Biden said he is not walking anything back on comments about Russian President Putin and that he was expressing moral outrage but he does not think the comments complicate diplomacy and he is not concerned his remarks could escalate the conflict, according to Bloomberg.DEFENCE/MILITARYKremlin spokesman Peskov said Russia would use nuclear weapons only when there is a threat to the existence of the state, while Peskov added that comments by US President Biden on Russian President Putin remaining in power were quite alarming and a personal insult. Furthermore, Peskov said Russia will not send gas without payment and that Russian troops are only shelling military installations, not houses and apartments.UK Ministry of Defence tweeted that Russian private military organisation the Wagner Group has deployed to eastern Ukraine with the group expected to deploy more than 1,000 mercenaries including senior leaders of the group for combat operations.ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONSAustralia announced sanctions and travel bans on 14 Russians, while it was separately reported that Australia imposed sanctions on 39 Russians linked to the Magnitsky case, according to Sputnik.Japan widened the scope of Russian sanctions to include luxury items such as premium cars and precious stones, according to Reuters.APAC TRADEEQUITIESAPAC stocks traded mostly higher following the gains in the US where growth stocks spearheaded a recovery and with a decline in oil prices conducive for risk.ASX 200 was led by strength in tech and consumer stocks heading into the Budget announcement.Nikkei 225 gained with Japan to compile economic measures by the end of next month.Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. traded mixed with the mainland index faltering amid the ongoing lockdown in Shanghai and despite the announcement of supportive measures by the local government.US equity futures plateaued following Monday's rebound.European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.8% after the cash market closed higher by 0.5% yesterday.FXDXY was rangebound near the 99.00 level after running out of steam on its approach towards YTD highs.EUR/USD eked marginal gains and eyes resistance near the 1.1000 handle.GBP/USD is off lows but remained lacklustre after recent comments from BoE Governor Bailey.USD/JPY continued to pull back overnight after Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki noted they will closely watch market moves to avoid negative JPY weakness.Antipodeans were lacklustre after the recent downside in commodities.FIXED INCOME10yr USTs traded subdued after yesterday's choppy mood but are off the prior day's lows after it found support at the 121.00 level, while the 2yr/10yr gap was at its narrowest in two years.Bunds remained pressured steadily prodded beneath the 158.00 level.10yr JGBs were lacklustre despite the BoJ's two special operations today for unlimited JGBs and with prices not helped by a weaker 40yr auction as Japanese yields hit multi-year highs.COMMODITIESWTI and Brent remained subdued after yesterday's 9% decline as the lockdown in Shanghai weighs on the demand outlook and with upcoming Ukraine-Russia meetings helping ease the geopolitical risk premia.UAE Energy Minister said they are not happy with higher prices but cannot oversupply the market, while he added that increasing production will only be in a measured way and through a consensus among OPEC+ members, according to Reuters.Spot gold traded flat and mirrored the uneventful price action in the greenback.Copper took a breather following its recent rebound.CRYPTOBitcoin saw mild gains overnight with prices back above the 47,000 level.Environmental groups are pushing for a reduction in Bitcoin's energy use, according to WSJ.NOTABLE APAC HEADLINESPBoC injected CNY 150bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 130bln net injectionPBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3640 vs exp. 6.3601 (prev. 6.3732)Shanghai will implement large-scale VAT credits and refunds, as well as reduce or exempt rents for SMEs. Shanghai also announced to strengthen financial guarantee support for SMEs and eligible companies, while it is to offer CNY 140bln in tax savings to corporations this year, according to Reuters and Global Times.Japanese PM Kishida said the government ordered a stimulus compilation by the end of April and Economic Minister Yamagiwa said they will first prioritise providing prompt support by utilising emergency reserves, according to Reuters.Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said currency market stability is important and that they need to watch recent moves closely, while Finance Minister Suzuki said they will closely watch market moves to avoid negative JPY weakness, according to Reuters.BoJ offered to buy an unlimited amount of 5yr-10yr JGBs at a fixed rate on two occasions today, according to Reuters.BoJ Summary of Opinions from the March meeting stated that rising inflation could pressure overseas economic growth and there were worries of the risk uncertainty regarding situation in Ukraine could weigh on Japan's economy. BoJ stated that CPI is likely to accelerate from April and may move around 2% for some time, while it also noted that they must maintain monetary easing as Japan is unlikely to see inflation continuously exceed 2%.DATA RECAPAustralian Retail Sales MM Final * (Feb) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 1.8%)EUROPENOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINESUK is interested in creating joint first ministers in Northern Ireland as part of an effort to improve the functioning of the devolved government, according to FT.ECB's Lane has warned that Europe "may have to get used to higher prices". He also expressed "major concern" over declines in consumer and confidence sentiment indices, according to Politico.

European bourses, Euro Stoxx 50 +2.2%, are firmer across the board in a continuation of the APAC/US handover as Russian-Ukraine talks begin.Risk-on that was exacerbated by Ukrainian negotiator Podoliak noted that a ceasefire is being discussed with Russia adding a press conference is to be expected later.Updates which further sapped geopolitical premia from crude benchmarks.DXY is softer, with EUR elevated amid pronounced yield upside as Bund 10yr nears 70bp; USD/JPY sub-124.00.Stateside, US equity futures are firmer but magnitudes more contained with Fed speak/supply ahead.Looking ahead, highlights include Speeches from Fed's Williams, Bostic & Harker & supply from the US.As of 11:15BST/06:15ETLOOKING AHEADSpeeches from Fed's Williams, Bostic & Harker & supply from the US.Click here for the Week Ahead preview.GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKSUkraine and Russia peace discussions in Turkey have begun, according to Ukrainian TV. (08:27BST/03:37ET).Top Russian Negotiator Medinsky says a statement following Russian-Ukraine talks will occur in several hours, via Reuters citing Tass. Subsequently, Russia's Kremlin says we will know today or tomorrow if peace talks are promising; says dialogue between US and Russia is still needed; relations cannot be unaffected by personal insults.Ukraine negotiator Podoliak says that a ceasefire is being discussed, main issue is security guarantees followed by humanitarian issues.Russian Defence Minister Shoigu says the main task of their Ukraine military operation is the liberation of Donbass, via Ifx. Main task of the first phase is complete.Turkish President Erdogan says we have entered a phase where Ukraine/Russia discussions need to yield concrete results. Progress at the Istanbul meeting will pave the way for a Presidential meeting, which Turkey could also host.Ukraine Deputy PM says they are aiming to open three humanitarian corridors on Tuesday, including for private vehicles from Mariupol.France President Macron will speak with Russian President Putin later today; no time confirmed.DEFENCE/MILITARYKremlin spokesman Peskov said Russia would use nuclear weapons only when there is a threat to the existence of the state, while Peskov added that comments by US President Biden on Russian President Putin remaining in power were quite alarming and a personal insult. Furthermore, Peskov said Russia will not send gas without payment and that Russian troops are only shelling military installations, not houses and apartments.UK Ministry of Defence tweeted that Russian private military organisation the Wagner Group has deployed to eastern Ukraine with the group expected to deploy more than 1,000 mercenaries including senior leaders of the group for combat operations.ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONSRussian Kremlin reiterated that gas payments must be made in Roubles, Russia will not export gas for free.Australia announced sanctions and travel bans on 14 Russians, while it was separately reported that Australia imposed sanctions on 39 Russians linked to the Magnitsky case, according to Sputnik.Japan widened the scope of Russian sanctions to include luxury items such as premium cars and precious stones, according to Reuters.Russian Finance Ministry says it has fully met the liability on servicing the 2035 Eurobond, made a USD 102mln coupon payment.EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIESEuropean bourses, Euro Stoxx 50 +2.2%, are firmer across the board in a continuation of the APAC/US handover as Russian-Ukraine talks begin.Upside that has been exacerbated by remarks from both Ukraine and Russian officials.US futures are firmer across the board, ES +0.4%, though magnitudes more contained with Fed speak and supply ahead.Click here for more detail.FXEuro elevated as EGB yields ramp up again and hopes rise regarding a Russia-Ukraine peace resolution, EUR/USD above 1.1000 and a series of decent option expiries stretching between 1.0950 and the round number.Buck caught amidst buoyant risk sentiment and hawkish Fed vibe, DXY sub-99.000 after narrowly missing test of 2022 peak on Monday.Yen maintains recovery momentum amidst more MoF verbal intervention and demand for month/fy end, USD/JPY under 124.00 vs 125.00+ peak yesterday.Franc flounders as SNB ponders direct repo indexing to main policy rate, USD/CHF around 0.9360 and EUR/CHF over 1.0300.Aussie gets retail therapy before fiscal reality via revised budget and Sterling unsettled by mixed BoE consumer credit, mortgage lending and approvals; AUD/USD straddles 0.7500 and Cable losing sight of 1.3100.Australian 2022-23 Federal Budget: Forecasts AUD 78bln budget deficit vs. AUD 98.9bln projected in December. Click here for more detail.Click here for more detail.Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:EUR/USD: 1.0900 (722M), 1.0950-60 (1.3BN), 1.0975-80 (1.33BN), 1.1000 (2.78BN), 1.1100 (956M)Click here for more detail.FIXED INCOMEDebt rout continues as markets perceive progress towards Russia/Ukraine truce from latest round of talks.US Treasuries also conceding more ground for the final leg of this week's auction remit via USD 47bln 7 year notes.Bunds breaching yet another round number to the downside at 157.00 as the benchmark German yield approaches 70 bp.Click here for more detail.COMMODITIESCrude benchmarks have experienced an erosion of earlier upside amid multiple, but generally constructive, updates from Ukraine and Russia.Specifically, Ukrainian negotiator Podoliak noted that a ceasefire is being discussed with Russia adding a press conference is to be expected later.Albeit, the morning's action has not been sufficient to spark a test of the overnight parameters for WTI and Brent.Spot gold/silver are pressured once more, generally speaking in-fitting with other havens, exacerbated by the aforementioned risk-on move.Click here for more detail.NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINESUK is interested in creating joint first ministers in Northern Ireland as part of an effort to improve the functioning of the devolved government, according to FT.ECB's Lane has warned that Europe "may have to get used to higher prices". He also expressed "major concern" over declines in consumer and confidence sentiment indices, according to Politico.DATA RECAPGerman GfK Consumer Sentiment (Apr) -15.5 vs. Exp. -14.0 (Prev. -8.1, Rev. -8.5)NOTABLE US HEADLINES:US Economic Adviser Rouse said the US does not expect a food shortage and sees inflation to ease this year into next, according to Reuters.US Moderate Democrat Senator Manchin said he doesn't support taxing unrealised gains of the wealthy and opposes reversing fossil fuel tax benefits, according to Bloomberg.US Senate voted 68-28 to pass the USD 52bln chips subsidy bill which paves the way for talks in an attempt to reach a compromise with the House, according to Reuters.US DoJ backs legislation targeting big tech such as Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL), according to WSJClick here for the US Early Morning NoteCRYPTOBitcoin is slightly softer overall, but remains well-within and towards the top-end of Monday's parameters.Environmental groups are pushing for a reduction in Bitcoin's energy use, according to WSJ.APAC TRADEEQUITIESAPAC stocks traded mostly higher following the gains in the US where growth stocks spearheaded a recovery and with a decline in oil prices conducive for risk.ASX 200 was led by strength in tech and consumer stocks heading into the Budget announcement.Nikkei 225 gained with Japan to compile economic measures by the end of next month.Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. traded mixed with the mainland index faltering amid the ongoing lockdown in Shanghai and despite the announcement of supportive measures by the local government.NOTABLE APAC HEADLINESPBoC injected CNY 150bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 130bln net injectionPBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3640 vs exp. 6.3601 (prev. 6.3732)Shanghai will implement large-scale VAT credits and refunds, as well as reduce or exempt rents for SMEs. Shanghai also announced to strengthen financial guarantee support for SMEs and eligible companies, while it is to offer CNY 140bln in tax savings to corporations this year, according to Reuters and Global Times.Japanese PM Kishida said the government ordered a stimulus compilation by the end of April and Economic Minister Yamagiwa said they will first prioritise providing prompt support by utilising emergency reserves, according to Reuters.Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said currency market stability is important and that they need to watch recent moves closely, while Finance Minister Suzuki said they will closely watch market moves to avoid negative JPY weakness, according to Reuters.Japan's Steel Industry Head says the plunging JPY vs USD poses serious challenge to domestic manufacturers, as some industries are yet to overcome deflation pressure, via Reuters.BoJ offered to buy an unlimited amount of 5yr-10yr JGBs at a fixed rate on two occasions today, according to Reuters.BoJ Summary of Opinions from the March meeting stated that rising inflation could pressure overseas economic growth and there were worries of the risk uncertainty regarding situation in Ukraine could weigh on Japan's economy. BoJ stated that CPI is likely to accelerate from April and may move around 2% for some time, while it also noted that they must maintain monetary easing as Japan is unlikely to see inflation continuously exceed 2%.DATA RECAPAustralian Retail Sales MM Final (Feb) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 1.8%)

Good morning everyone! Thank you for listening to the Motivated Entrepreneurs podcast. Today we have a book review and it's called "Red Notice" by Bill Browder Red Notice is a searing expose of the wholesale whitewash by Russian authorities of Magnitsky's imprisonment and murder, slicing deep into the shadowy heart of the Kremlin to uncover its sordid truths. Bill Browder - the hedge fund manager who employed Magnitsky - takes us on his explosive journey from the heady world of finance in New York and London in the 1990s, through his battles with ruthless oligarchs in the turbulent landscape of post-Soviet Union Moscow, to his expulsion from Russia on Putin's orders. Browder's graphic portrait of the Russian government as a criminal enterprise wielding all the power of a sovereign state illuminates his personal transformation from financier to human rights activist, campaigning for justice for his late lawyer and friend. Hope you like this episode. Please give a listen. Listen on Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2VkXGHq Listen on Apple Podcast: https://apple.co/39TYebQ Motivated Entrepreneurs Website: https://motivatedentrepreneurs.co.uk/ Please Like, Share, and Subscribe to Motivated Entrepreneurs Youtube Channel: https://bit.ly/3eA64u5   Cheers, Dean  

JM Keynes and his theory, Keynesianism, is central to the financial history of twentieth century. However, he is also central to its cultural history. Keynes was not only an economist, but a man equally concerned with aesthetics and ethics; as interested in the ballet as he was with the stock market crash. Anne McElvoy talks to Robert Hudson about the musical drama has written about the political trading behind the Treaty of Versailles from Keynes's perspective. How does looking again at Keynes life and work offer us a different view of the man and his times? Zachary D. Carter is a Writer in Residence with the Omidyar Network's Reimagining Capitalism initiative and the author of The Price of Peace: Money, Democracy and the Life of John Maynard Keynes. Robert Hudson is the co-author of Hall of Mirrors a musical based on JM Keynes's experiences at the Paris Peace Conference. His other work includes Magnitsky the Musical. Adam Tooze is Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Professor History at Columbia University and he serves as Director of the European Institute. His books include: Shutdown: how COVID-19 shook the world's economy; Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World; and, The Deluge: The Great War and the Remaking of the Global Order, 1916-1931. Emma West is a British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow at the University of Birmingham and her current research project, Revolutionary Red Tape, examines how public servants and official committees helped to produce and popularise modern British culture. Producer: Ruth Watts

Reposted from Google Playbook by Bill Brow.der, "Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder, & One Man's fight for Justice." ♎ ⚖️*******"November 2009. An emaciated young lawyer, Sergei Magnitsky, is led to a freezing isolation cell in a Moscow prison, handcuffed to a bed rail, and beaten to death by eight police officers. His crime? To testify against the Russian Interior Ministry officials who were involved in a conspiracy to steal $230 million of taxes paid to the state by one of the world's most successful hedge funds. Magnitsky's brutal killing has remained uninvestigated and unpunished to this day. His farcical posthumous show-trial brought Putin's regime to a new low in the eyes of the international community. Red Notice is a searing exposE of the wholesale whitewash by Russian authorities of Magnitsky's imprisonment and murder, slicing deep into the shadowy heart of the Kremlin to uncover its sordid truths. Bill Browder - the hedge fund manager who employed Magnitsky - takes us on his explosive journey from the heady world of finance in New York and London in the 1990s, through his battles with ruthless oligarchs in the turbulent landscape of post-Soviet Union Moscow, to his expulsion from Russia on Putin's orders. Browder's graphic portrait of the Russian government as a criminal enterprise wielding all the power of a sovereign state illuminates his personal transformation from financier to human rights activist, campaigning for justice for his late lawyer and friend. With fraud, bribery, corruption and torture exposed at every turn,Red Notice is a shocking but true political roller-coaster that plays out in the highest echelons of Western power."*****

New Zealand could be cranking up its response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as cabinet meets today. New measures on the table include a specific law change to target Russian investment. Other western nations have used powers in Magnitsky laws - which target corrupt officials and human rights offenders - to go after Russia's president. The architect of the US' Magnitsky Act, and chief executive of Hermitage Capital, Bill Browder, spoke to Susie Ferguson.

In a bonus podcast, Russian corruption expert, Hermitage Capital Founder and Magnitsky Global Justice Campaigner Bill Browder joins Iain Dale in the studio to take calls from listener.

Bill Browder is the financier who is the driving force behind Magnitsky acts—acts that allow governments to sanction individual human-rights abusers, rather than whole peoples. He is one of Vladimir Putin's chief enemies. He has been in Putin's crosshairs for years. Browder is the author of “Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder, […]

Bill Browder is the financier who is the driving force behind Magnitsky acts—acts that allow governments to sanction individual human-rights abusers, rather than whole peoples. He is one of Vladimir Putin's chief enemies. He has been in Putin's crosshairs for years. Browder is the author of “Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder, and One Man's Fight for Justice.” With Jay... Source

Bill Browder is the financier who is the driving force behind Magnitsky acts—acts that allow governments to sanction individual human-rights abusers, rather than whole peoples. He is one of Vladimir Putin's chief enemies. He has been in Putin's crosshairs for years. Browder is the author of “Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder, and One Man's Fight for Justice.” With Jay, he talks about the importance of money to Putin and his regime. The Free World can put the screws on these guys—but we have to be willing to do it. 

Bill Browder is the financier who is the driving force behind Magnitsky acts—acts that allow governments to sanction individual human-rights abusers, rather than whole peoples. He is one of Vladimir Putin's chief enemies. He has been in Putin's crosshairs for years. Browder is the author of “Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder, […]

Beyond the minute-by-minute reporting of the ground war, the Twitter feeds, TickTock images, there are broader and more economically complex issues surrounding the war in the Ukraine, and the world's response to it. Issues that include sanctions, the SWIFT system, and the seizure of assets, including yachts and private planes parked around the globe. All part of the interconnectedness of a global economic structure that Russia, for better or worse, has been a part of. Few understand the intricacies of these connections better than Bill Browder. Years ago, Browder made millions in Putin's Russia. What he didn't know was what kind of price he would pay for getting involved in the ever-entangling web of Putin and his oligarchs. The ultimate result was the brutal death of Browder's lawyer and friend Sergei Magnitsky, who was murdered in prison after uncovering a multi-million dollar fraud committed by Russian government officials. Browder has carried on Magnitsky's legacy, at great personal risk to himself. That legacy and the Magnitsky Act is a large part of the basis of the sanctions that we've been talking about. Long before current events, Browder's been leading a campaign to expose Russia's endemic corruption and human rights abuses. He's the author of the international bestseller Red Notice and the soon-to-be-published Freezing Order.   My WhoWhatWhy.org conversation with Bill Browder::  

Hi guys! Today I am talking about the political thriller, "Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder, and One Man's Quest for Justice" by Bill Browder. This book is a look behind the curtain into the gangster oligarchs running Russia from behind the scenes, how they seized power after the fall of the Soviet Union during the era of privatization, and how Vladimir Putin rose to become the kingpin of the whole thing. The book was written by an American who finds himself caught up in a political struggle between all these parties, has a good friend murdered, and ends up on an Interpol most-wanted "Red Notice" board. The Russians want him bad, and if you want to know why, you'll have to listen to this episode! I think you'll get a kick out of it.Thanks for listening! If you like the show, please feel free to share it with someone who you think might get a kick out of it. If you LOVE the show and you'd like to support it financially, head over to my Patreon page: https://www.patreon.com/whatstomreadingAs always, thank you so much for listening and for all your support. It means the world to me!

– Federal Parliament has passed Australia's own version of Magnitsky Laws, which allows for targeted sanctions against individuals responsible for human rights violations. Emma Hoy spoke with one of the The post Aus passes Magnitsky laws, activists call for Chechen leaders to be targeted | Critics of proposed ‘cyber-bulling' law say it will only make defamation lawsuits easier | Religious Discrimination Bill won't protect those who face discrimination says gay Christian man | The Informer – 9 Dec 2021 appeared first on The Informer.

Two former UK Foreign Secretaries and the current UK Foreign Affairs Committee Chair have called Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a British citizen and mother unjustly detained in Iran since 3 April 2016 – a hostage. Nazanin's husband, Richard Ratcliffe talks to us about his campaign to free his wife and what we can do to help reunite his family.We discuss how and why Nazanin was taken, the outstanding 400 million debt UK owes Iran, seeking help from the United Nations, deciding to go public, the FreeNazanin campaign, better protections for British citizens overseas, working with other hostage families, Magnitsky sanctions as well as what the public, politicians and news outlets can do to help bring Nazanin home. Follow Pod Hostage Diplomacy on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram to keep up to date with our work.Support the show (https://www.buymeacoffee.com/PodHostageDiplo)

MENA Now Morning Briefing, November 9, 2020 *This daily morning briefing covers news as presented by the media, and does not present the views of MENA Now. * All sources were drawn from publicly available online news sources Lebanon Today Bassil Sanctions The US sanctions Bassil in the first blacklisting of a Lebanese politician under the Magnitsky act; https://bit.ly/38lTxud More Lebanese officials to face sanctions after Gebran Bassil; https://bit.ly/3lc8AtP US imposes sanctions on Bassil over corruption, Hezbollah ties; https://bit.ly/3k5SYH6 Lebanon's president demands US evidence to justify Bassil sanctions; https://bit.ly/3pa0rse Aoun-Macron talks Aoun, Macron discuss Cabinet formation efforts; https://bit.ly/3ka2N6H Lockdown & COVID Aoun calls for meeting to decide on lockdown; https://bit.ly/35b3XdU Regional Overview US Elections How Joe Biden won the presidency – a visual guide; https://bit.ly/3kgM5m9 Biden victory sparks massive celebration in US capital; https://bit.ly/3ldmufo Egypt – Parliamentary Elections Egypt holds second stage of parliamentary elections; https://bit.ly/32IiJHN UAE – Relaxing Islamic laws UAE announces relaxing of Islamic laws for personal freedoms; https://bit.ly/32tigch

Shenanigans are afoot, and no one plays this game like Mrs Bennet. We're heading to Netherfield this week with chapters 5 to 10 in this episode, and the men are in love. MENTIONSJenny Han's To All the Boys I Loved Before and PS I Still Love YouAbigail Hing Wen's Loveboat, TapeiBBC Radio's Magnitsky the MusicalIf you want to join in on the conversation, join us in reading chapters 11 to 16 of Pride and PrejudiceTalk to us! We'd love to hear from you.thedailyknightley.comTwitter: @knightleypodInstagram: @thedailyknightleyEmail: thedailyknightley@gmail.comMusic from https://filmmusic.io: “Improbable” by Kevin MacLeod https://incompetech.comLicence: CC BY http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

It's been a decade since Sergei Magnitsky was tortured and killed in a Moscow prison. In that time, his name has become synonymous with rule-of-law and international justice—even as those principles come under attack around the world. It is memorialized in the laws of six countries allowing for sanctions against human rights offenders. How did Magnitksy, a mild-mannered tax lawyer, come to symbolize the values of a democratic world in which he didn't live or work? We explore the tragic but inspiring story of a man who exposed corruption and theft in Vladimir Putin's Russia; who was urged to flee his homeland, yet stayed to make his case. Magnitsky believed in the possibility of a Russia—of a world—where justice and truth prevailed. His sacrifice did not go in vain.

In this episode we look in some detail at payments made from Danske Estonia to three specific countries - Spain, UK, and Latvia. The outcome will surprise some and intrigue all.It's a more complex episode because that's the way that Dark Money Launderers work and introduces, for the first time, direct references to the Magnitsky affair.It also demonstrates that, if you look carefully enough, all of these payments, entities and schemes are connected.Support the show (https://www.patreon.com/TDMF)

Sergej Magnitsky was een accountant die fraude aan het licht bracht, maar werd gearresteerd en overleed in de gevangenis. Zijn dood leidde wereldwijd tot Magnitsky-wetten en Kamerlid Sjoerd Sjoerdsma wil dat er in Nederland ook een Magnitsky-wet komt. En de politie zocht opnieuw naar Willeke Dost. Verslaggever Mattijs van de Wiel vertelt hoe hij zich moest bewegen tussen politie en burgers die het oneens met elkaar zijn over een gevoelig onderwerp als dit.

Bill Browder is the financier whose lawyer, Sergei Magnitsky, was tortured to death by Russian authorities. Since that time, Browder has worked for justice, spearheading “Magnitsky acts,” which are laws that place sanctions on Russian human-rights abusers. Browder is high on Putin's enemies list. Indeed, he is high on Putin's literal list: the list of people whom Putin wants handed over to the FSB... Source

In New York, the Human Rights Foundation hosted “PutinCon” – a conference dedicated to telling the truth about Putin and his Russia. Jay caught up with Bill Browder and Vladimir Kara-Murza. The former is the financier who has spearheaded “Magnitsky acts”; the latter is the Russian democracy leader who, twice, has survived poison attacks. Jay talks with them about the latest poison attacks in... Source