Podcasts about foreign relations cfr

Năm 2025, Tổ chức Thương mại Thế giới (WTO/OMC) kỷ niệm 30 năm ra đời trong bối cảnh tổng thống Mỹ Donald Trump hủy hoại hàng loạt luật chơi của định chế này. Định chế quốc tế, từng do Hoa Kỳ thúc đẩy để đóng vai trò « trọng tài » hay « cảnh sát thương mại quốc tế », giờ đây dường như bất lực đứng nhìn các thiệt hại do cuộc chiến thuế quan mà Trump phát động. Vì sao Trump chống lại định chế vốn tạo điều kiện cho sự thịnh vượng của Mỹ ? Trước hết xin trở lại cội nguồn lịch sử của định chế thương mại lớn nhất hành tinh. Ngày 15/04/1994, tại Marrakech, Maroc, đại diện của 128 quốc gia đã nhất trí lập một tổ chức quốc tế về tham vấn và trọng tài nhằm đảm bảo tự do lưu thông hàng hóa trên toàn thế giới, cũng như thương mại dịch vụ và sở hữu trí tuệ. Tổ chức Thương mại Thế giới chính thức được thành lập ngày 01/01/1995 tại Geneva, Thụy Sĩ, tại chính trụ sở của Ban thư ký GATT (tức Hiệp định Chung về Thuế quan và Thương mại), một cơ quan không chính thức có sứ mạng cắt giảm thuế hải quan trên toàn thế giới, hoạt động từ năm 1947. WTO, định chế quốc tế duy nhất Mỹ chấp nhận thẩm quyền « siêu quốc gia » Hiệp định Chung về Thuế quan và Thương mại GATT ra đời sau Đệ nhị Thế chiến, theo thỏa thuận giữa các nước đồng minh, nhằm điều hòa chính sách thuế quan giữa các nước, không để thương mại trở thành công cụ thống trị về kinh tế, có thể dẫn đến xung đột. Hiệp định được sửa đổi nhiều lần qua nhiều vòng đàm phán, trước khi có được một cơ quan có tư cách pháp nhân chính thức, với thỏa thuận Marrakesh năm 1994, dẫn đến sự ra đời của Tổ chức Thương mại Thế giới. Từ chỗ chỉ có hơn 20 thành viên tham gia Hiệp định GATT, cho đến nay WTO đã thu hút hơn 160 thành viên, chiếm 98% tổng trọng lượng thương mại toàn cầu. Một thành tích rõ rệt nhất thường được nêu là mức thuế hải quan đối với hàng hóa đã giảm trung bình từ 40%, thời sau Thế chiến Hai, xuống còn 6% hiện nay. Liên Hiệp Châu Âu ra đời năm 1993, và đồng tiền chung châu Âu được xác lập năm 2000, sự phát triển đột biến của kinh tế Trung Quốc, Bắc Kinh gia nhập WTO từ 2000… Giai đoạn tự do mậu dịch chưa từng có đi kèm với thịnh vượng chưa từng có với nhân loại cũng là thời kỳ nước Mỹ là siêu cường duy nhất. WTO mang lại nhiều điều cho thế giới, nhưng định chế này đặc biệt có lợi cho Mỹ. Ông Pascal Lamy, cựu tổng giám đốc WTO (2005 - 2013), cựu ủy viên Môi trường Ủy Ban Châu Âu, nhấn mạnh đến vai trò đặc biệt của WTO với Mỹ : « Họ đã xây dựng một hệ thống mà họ nghĩ là tốt cho họ, bởi vì chủ nghĩa tư bản cần đến các quy tắc và sự minh bạch để hoạt động. Đó là lý do tại sao vào năm 1994, với sự ra đời của Tổ chức Thương mại Thế giới (WTO), họ đã chấp nhận thành lập một cơ chế phán xử quốc tế có khả năng áp đặt các biện pháp trừng phạt đối với thành viên nào vi phạm các quy tắc thương mại chung. Đây là tổ chức quốc tế duy nhất mà Hoa Kỳ chấp nhận một liều lượng siêu quốc gia, nghĩa là một hệ thống pháp lý không phải của Mỹ, nhưng có thẩm quyền cưỡng chế với nước Mỹ » (bài « Pascal Lamy : ‘‘Les Etats-Unis tentent de démolir un monde qu'ils ont conçu'' » [Nước Mỹ đang cố gắng phá hủy một thế giới mà họ đã thiết kế], tuần báo Le Nouvel Obs, ngày 12/05/2025). « Đóng góp đặc biệt cho sự ổn định kinh tế toàn cầu » Tự do mậu dịch có nghĩa là mở cửa các thị trường, và điều này diễn ra trong bối cảnh kinh tế Mỹ ở thế thượng phong. Trong thập niên 1990, đầu những năm 2000, WTO được coi là một công cụ chiến lược với Mỹ để mở cửa các thị trường nước ngoài ở các lĩnh vực mà nền kinh tế Mỹ thống trị, hay có tính cạnh tranh cao như công nghệ tiên tiến, dịch vụ tài chính, sở hữu trí tuệ… và tiếp tục duy trì các biện pháp bảo hộ đối với một số lĩnh vực nhạy cảm trong nước, như thép, dệt may, nông nghiệp cơ bản (theo báo cáo năm 2007 về Hệ thống Giải quyết Tranh chấp của WTO có lợi cho nước Mỹ [WTO Trade Rules Benefit the United States, Says New Council Report], của giáo sư Robert Z. Lawrence - Đại học Harvard, Viện tư vấn chính sách đối ngoại Mỹ Council on Foreign Relations / CFR đăng tải). Báo cáo của nguyên thành viên Hội đồng cố vấn kinh tế của tổng thống Mỹ nhấn mạnh đến một vấn đề đã trở nên nhạy cảm với nước Mỹ ngay từ thời điểm đó, khi nhiều nhà hoạch định chính sách và nhà lập pháp Mỹ bắt đầu chỉ trích mạnh mẽ Cơ chế Giải quyết Tranh chấp (Dispute Settlement Body - DSB) của WTO, thay vì bảo vệ. Cho dù hệ thống này đã và có thể giúp « giảm nhu cầu Mỹ phải sử dụng các biện pháp trả đũa đơn phương, hạn chế một nguồn căng thẳng quan trọng giữa Mỹ và các đối tác ». « Giải quyết tranh chấp là nền tảng của hệ thống thương mại đa phương và là đóng góp chưa từng có của WTO vào sự ổn định của nền kinh tế toàn cầu » (theo WTO). Hệ thống Giải quyết Tranh chấp của WTO, từ khi ra đời định chế này đã giải quyết hơn 600 vụ kiện tụng về thương mại, thông qua cơ chế xem xét tranh chấp ở cấp sơ thẩm (tại Ban hội thẩm) và cấp phúc thẩm (tức Appellate Body). Phán quyết của Cơ quan Phúc thẩm, theo phương thức trọng tài, có tính chung thẩm. Cơ quan Phúc thẩm AB gồm bảy thành viên do Cơ quan Giải quyết Tranh chấp DSB, bổ nhiệm với nhiệm kỳ bốn năm và có thể được bầu lại một lần, gồm những chuyên gia có uy tín và chuyên môn cao trong lĩnh vực pháp luật thương mại quốc tế. Định chế WTO : Từ nguồn lợi của Mỹ trở thành tội đồ Tuy nhiên, hơn 20 năm sau khi WTO ra đời, nước Mỹ thời Donald Trump khẳng định thái độ mất tin tưởng hoàn toàn đối với Tổ chức Thương mại Thế giới. Washington coi WTO hoạt động chậm chạp, can thiệp thô bạo về mặt pháp lý và không đủ năng lực để xử lý các vấn đề địa - chính trị hiện đại, đặc biệt là liên quan đến Trung Quốc, bị Mỹ và nhiều đồng minh cáo buộc là cạnh tranh bất chính trong các lĩnh vực chiến lược, với các trợ cấp ồ ạt cho doanh nghiệp nhà nước, ép buộc doanh nghiệp nước ngoài chuyển giao công nghệ… Năm 2018, chính quyền Trump nhiệm kỳ thứ nhất khởi động cuộc chiến thuế quan, đơn phương đánh thuế hàng trăm tỉ đô hàng nhập từ Trung Quốc. Bắc Kinh khởi kiện. Tháng 9/2020, cơ quan phân xử tranh chấp của WTO ra phán quyết về việc Mỹ áp đặt thuế « mang tính kỳ thị và thái quá », vi phạm các quy định thương mại quốc tế. Đại diện Thương mại Mỹ lúc đó, Robert Lighthizer, đón nhận lạnh nhạt với tuyên bố : « Điều này khẳng định những gì chính quyền Trump đã nói từ bốn năm nay. Đó là WTO hoàn toàn không đủ khả năng ngăn chặn các hoạt động có hại của Trung Quốc trong lĩnh vực công nghệ. » Rời bỏ các quy tắc quốc tế của WTO để « trở về » với « logic của kẻ mạnh » Vào thời điểm cuộc chiến thuế quan chống Trung Quốc lần thứ nhất bùng lên, nhiều chuyên gia như cựu tổng giám đốc WTO Pascal Lamy chưa hiểu rõ phe cầm quyền tại Mỹ muốn gì. Cựu tổng giám đốc WTO băn khoăn : « Hoa Kỳ vẫn chưa nói rõ vấn đề mà họ muốn là gì. Liệu có phải vì các trọng tài viên chưa đưa ra quyết định đúng đắn theo quan điểm của họ, hay vì họ phản đối cơ chế trọng tài siêu quốc gia này ? ». « Liệu việc Washington ngăn chặn bổ nhiệm thẩm phán của cơ quan trọng tài giải quyết tranh chấp của WTO, khiến hệ thống bị tê liệt, có phải là một chiến thuật nhằm thiết lập lại các quy tắc thương mại toàn cầu và buộc Trung Quốc phải nhượng bộ, hay đánh dấu sự kết thúc của chủ nghĩa đa phương (multilateralism), điều mà người Mỹ không còn đồng cảm nữa ? » (trích Le Monde, ngày 10/12/2019). Đọc thêm - Pascal Lamy : ''WTO cần tiếp tục tồn tại, cho dù không có Donald Trump'' Năm nay, khi Trump trở lại nắm quyền, tình hình đã hoàn toàn rõ. Phe cầm quyền của Donald Trump tại Mỹ không chỉ coi Trung Quốc là đích ngắm, trong ngày 02/04/2025, « Ngày Giải phóng nước Mỹ », Donald Trump tuyên bố đơn phương đánh « thuế đối ứng » đối với tuyệt đại đa số các nước, bất chấp luật pháp thương mại quốc tế hiện hành. Điều đó có nghĩa là phe tổng thống Trump không dừng ở việc tấn công vào một số quy tắc của WTO, mà là vào thẩm quyền « siêu quốc gia », vai trò cầm cân nẩy mực của định chế thương mại lớn nhất hành tinh này. Triết lý hành động của tổng thống Donald Trump được thể hiện công khai: Thế giới là một đấu trường, kẻ mạnh áp đặt luật chơi, luật pháp quốc tế hoàn toàn không còn chỗ đứng. Cuộc chiến thuế quan toàn cầu chỉ là phần nổi… Hủy hoại các luật chơi của WTO, nước Mỹ của Donald Trump thực sự tìm kiếm gì ? Nguyên tổng giám đốc Tổ chức Thương mại Thế giới Pascal Lamy, trả lời đài Pháp France 24 hồi tháng 5/2025, đã cảnh báo là cuộc chiến thuế quan nghiêm trọng, làm rung chuyển hệ thống thương mại toàn cầu đang diễn ra chỉ là phần nổi. Điều hệ trọng hơn nhiều là tham vọng thâu tóm quyền lực để độc quyền hành xử bất chấp luật lệ của lãnh đạo Mỹ: « Chúng ta đã có phần bị đánh lạc hướng bởi phong cách hành xử quá đỗi hiếu động của ông Trump, những màn trình diễn liên tục và hàng ngày của ông Trump về vấn đề thuế quan. Chắc chắn tôi không phải là người coi nhẹ vấn đề thương mại quốc tế. Nhưng tôi nghĩ hệ quả của không khí này là chúng ta sẽ không thấy rõ những gì ông ấy thực sự đang làm trong hậu trường, trên bình diện chính trị tại Mỹ, và đối với hệ thống quốc tế. Và điều này có lẽ nghiêm trọng hơn, sâu sắc hơn, mang tính hệ thống hơn nhiều. Đây là điều mà theo tôi, chúng ta chưa chú ý đủ mức và đó là điều nghiêm trọng nhất.  Tôi nghĩ rằng một lần nữa, chủ nghĩa bảo hộ mậu dịch của Trump rõ ràng là một vấn đề thực sự, nhưng vấn đề này có thể che khuất điều nghiêm trọng hơn, sâu xa hơn. Đó là việc hành pháp lấn át. Chúng ta không còn nghe tiếng nói của Quốc Hội Mỹ nữa. Tại Mỹ, tòa án không còn là cơ quan kiểm soát các hành động của tổng thống trong các vấn đề thương mại quốc tế. Và ông Trump đang đưa ra những quyết định hoàn toàn vi phạm các thỏa thuận quốc tế mà Hoa Kỳ đã ký kết trong 150 năm qua. Điều này rất nghiêm trọng, đặc biệt là trong lĩnh vực môi trường. Dường như đã có quyết định không phải để cho phép thăm dò mà là khai thác một số đáy biển sâu, trong khi mọi người đều đồng ý là việc này phải tuân theo các thủ tục quốc tế. Như vậy là đã có một nỗ lực phá hủy một cách có hệ thống những cơ chế nào hạn chế việc thực thi quyền lực. Đây là điều mà theo tôi là rất nghiêm trọng. » Ngăn cản WTO cải tổ vì khí hậu – môi trường, bảo vệ « năng lượng hóa thạch » Các đòn tấn công trực diện của phe cầm quyền tại Mỹ làm rung chuyển nền móng của WTO, trụ cột của thương mại quốc tế, có một đích ngắm mang tính hệ thống, đó là các nỗ lực hướng đến cải cách triệt để định chế WTO, để Tổ chức Thương mại Thế giới có thể cung cấp « các giải pháp mạnh mẽ cho vấn đề biến đổi khí hậu », như ghi nhận của Ralph Ossa, kinh tế gia trưởng của WTO, hồi tháng 12/2024. Trợ lý tổng giám đốc WTO, ông Jean-Marie Paugam, đã nói đến viễn cảnh mở đàm phán về thương mại, khí hậu và phát triển bền vững trong khuôn khổ WTO. Một số chuyên gia nói đến phối hợp mật thiết giữa WTO- UNFCCC (Công ước khung về Biến đổi khí hậu của Liên Hiệp Quốc), với một ban thư ký thường trực chung (bài « Khí hậu và Thương mại : Vì một chủ nghĩa đa phương của chung » của Sébastian Jean và Denis Tersen, trang của viện tư vấn Terre Nova). Đọc thêm : Chính quyền Trump cố triệt hạ giới khoa học về khí hậu và môi trường Rút nước Mỹ ra khỏi Hiệp định Khí hậu Paris ngay từ ngày đầu nhậm chức : Chính sách nhất quán của tổng thống Trump, trong nhiệm kỳ trước cũng như nhiệm kỳ này, là tấn công vào các thỏa thuận quốc tế về khí hậu và môi trường, cũng như các định chế bảo vệ môi trường tại chính nước Mỹ. Việc Tổ chức Thương mại Thế giới có thể tiến hành được các cải tổ để lợi ích kinh tế kết hợp với bảo vệ môi trường sẽ là hồi chuông báo tử đối với mô hình kinh tế dựa trên năng lượng hóa thạch mà phe cầm quyền của tổng thống Trump bám giữ. Tuy nhiên, để hiểu vì sao phe cầm quyền tại Mỹ lại bám chặt vào kinh tế năng lượng hóa thạch cũng rất cần đặt việc này trong cuộc ganh đua quyết liệt giữa Mỹ và Trung Quốc, một thời là con gà đẻ trứng vàng của các tập đoàn Mỹ, nay trở thành nền kinh tế thứ hai và là quốc gia phát thải đứng đầu thế giới. Và sự phụ thuộc ngày càng mật thiết về kinh tế Mỹ - Trung trong hàng chục năm toàn cầu hóa thương mại vừa qua đã không dẫn đến quan hệ hòa bình (« l'introuvable interdépendance pacificatrice ») (theo Benjamin Burbaumer trong cuốn « Chine/États-Unis, le capitalisme contre la mondialisation » [Trung Quốc/Mỹ, chủ nghĩa tư bản chống lại toàn cầu hóa], Nxb La Découverte, 2024, tr. 111).

This week on The New Arab Voice, we look at the recent ceasefire agreement between the PKK and the Turkish state. The Kurdistan's Worker's Party (PKK) and the Turkish state have been in a state of conflict since 1984. The conflict has killed over 35,000 people and achieved little, for either side. But now, a ceasefire has been announced. In a symbolic ceremony, PKK fighters burnt their arms in Sulaimaniyah, Iraq; and more recently, a commission was started at the Turkish Parliament to discuss the Turkish parliament. Is this the opportunity for Kurds to secure their rights in Turkey? Why is the Turkish state agreeing to a ceasefire now? Is President Erdogan using the ceasefire talks to increase his grip on power?Joining us to examine the Kurdish position, we speak with Dr. Salim Çevik (@salimcevikk), a visiting fellow at the Centre for Applied Turkey Studies (@CATS_Network) at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (@SWPBerlin).And to guide us through Turkish thinking, we speak with Henri Barkey (@hbarkey), adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (@CFR_org) and the Bernard L. and Bertha F. Cohen chair in international relations at Lehigh University (Emeritus) (@LehighU). This podcast is written and produced by Hugo Goodridge (@hugogoodridge).Theme music by Omar al-Fil with additional music from Audio Network.To get in touch with the producers, follow then tweet us at @TNAPodcasts or email podcast@newarab.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jeffrey Epstein's involvement with the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is one of the most underexamined yet telling indicators of how deeply entrenched he was in elite policy-making circles. Epstein donated at least $350,000 to the CFR and was listed as a member of its donor roster for years, despite his 2008 conviction for soliciting sex from a minor. His name appeared alongside respected diplomats, corporate executives, and scholars—legitimizing him in the eyes of the foreign policy establishment. Even after his initial conviction, the CFR accepted donations from Epstein-linked foundations and did not publicly distance itself from him until much later, raising questions about whether his presence was overlooked, tolerated, or quietly protected.The CFR has since tried to downplay its connection to Epstein, claiming he was not a formal member, but that distinction does little to shield the institution from criticism. Accepting donations from a convicted sex offender, especially one operating under the guise of philanthropy and elite networking, speaks volumes about the moral compromises often made behind closed doors. Epstein leveraged associations like this to burnish his image and embed himself within global power structures, using institutions like CFR as part of the camouflage that made his crimes harder to scrutinize. The fact that no CFR official raised alarm or demanded accountability at the time remains a stark reflection of how financial influence can insulate even the most depraved figures from scrutiny.to contact me:bobbycapucci@protonmail.comsource:https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/council-on-foreign-relations-another-beneficiary-of-epstein-largesse-grapples-with-how-to-handle-his-donations/2019/09/10/1d5630e2-d324-11e9-86ac-0f250cc91758_story.html

Jeffrey Epstein's involvement with the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is one of the most underexamined yet telling indicators of how deeply entrenched he was in elite policy-making circles. Epstein donated at least $350,000 to the CFR and was listed as a member of its donor roster for years, despite his 2008 conviction for soliciting sex from a minor. His name appeared alongside respected diplomats, corporate executives, and scholars—legitimizing him in the eyes of the foreign policy establishment. Even after his initial conviction, the CFR accepted donations from Epstein-linked foundations and did not publicly distance itself from him until much later, raising questions about whether his presence was overlooked, tolerated, or quietly protected.The CFR has since tried to downplay its connection to Epstein, claiming he was not a formal member, but that distinction does little to shield the institution from criticism. Accepting donations from a convicted sex offender, especially one operating under the guise of philanthropy and elite networking, speaks volumes about the moral compromises often made behind closed doors. Epstein leveraged associations like this to burnish his image and embed himself within global power structures, using institutions like CFR as part of the camouflage that made his crimes harder to scrutinize. The fact that no CFR official raised alarm or demanded accountability at the time remains a stark reflection of how financial influence can insulate even the most depraved figures from scrutiny.to contact me:bobbycapucci@protonmail.comsource:https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/council-on-foreign-relations-another-beneficiary-of-epstein-largesse-grapples-with-how-to-handle-his-donations/2019/09/10/1d5630e2-d324-11e9-86ac-0f250cc91758_story.htmlBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-epstein-chronicles--5003294/support.

Speculation is back in vogue as OBBBA passage will leak money into markets – its stimulus of course! Tariff Fever – Markets don't really care. Bitcoin on the move and we will discuss with our guest - Guest Anthony Scaramucci, Founder of Skybridge Capital and Host of the Open Book Podcast.  NEW! DOWNLOAD THE AI GENERATED SHOW NOTES (Guest Segment) Anthony Scaramucci is the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge, a global alternative investment firm, and founder and chairman of SALT, a global thought leadership forum and venture studio. Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman in 2001. Earlier, he worked in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2022, Scaramucci was ranked #47 in Cointelegraph's Top 100 Influencers in Crypto and Blockchain. In 2016, he was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine's Power 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young's New York Financial Services “Entrepreneur of the Year” Award. Anthony is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and a board member of the Federal Enforcement Homeland Security Foundation. He is the author of five books. OPEN BOOK PODCAST ON APPLE Scaramucci served on President Donald J. Trump's 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee, and in 2017 briefly served as Chief Strategy Officer of the Export-Import (EXIM) Bank and White House Communications Director. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School. Follow @Scaramucci Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (CRPT), (GNRC), (SPY)

Zongyuan Zoe Liu is a senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Her work focuses on international political economy, global financial markets, sovereign wealth funds, supply chains of critical minerals, development finance, emerging markets, energy and climate change policy, and East Asia-Middle East relations. Dr. Liu is the author of ‘Can BRICS De-dollarize the Global Financial System?' and ‘Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances its Global Ambitions'. In this podcast we discuss US-China tensions in run-up to Trump 2.0, Xi Jinping's worldview and generational trauma, the strategic logic behind China's limited retaliation, and much more.    Follow us here for more amazing insights: https://macrohive.com/home-prime/ https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive

Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs came into force at midnight last night and China has whacked up their tariffs to an eyewatering 84%. With Michael Walker, Grace Blakeley and Helena NoJusticeMTG. Interview with Zoe Liu of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

As our centennial series continues, Michael Froman, president of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and former U.S. trade representative in the Obama administration, explores the history of American trade policies and the swings since the early 20th century between free trade and protectionism. 

US-Präsident mit gravierenden Geschichts- und GedächtnislückenEin Standpunkt von Wolfgang Effenberger.US-Präsident Donald Trump übte am 27. Februar 2025 erneut scharfe Kritik an der Europäischen Union und drohte mit neuen Zöllen von 25 Prozent auf Importe aus der EU an, die „für Autos und alle anderen Dinge“ gelten sollen. (1) Trump warf den Europäern vor, die USA auszunutzen, und behauptete sogar,die EU sei gegründet worden, „um die USA über den Tisch zu ziehen“.(2)Dies sei "der Zweck" der EU. (3) Die EU-Kommission reagierte prompt auf diese neuen Drohungen und kündigte an, dass Europa "sofort und entschlossen" reagieren werde. (4)Trumps Behauptung stellt die Entstehungsgeschichte der EU auf den Kopf. Provokation oder tatsächliche Unwissenheit? Trumps Parteifreund, der Republikaner und ehemalige Vizefinanzminister von Präsident Ronald Reagan, Paul Craig Roberts, versprach sich am 24. Juni 2016 – direkt nach dem BREXIT-Referendum –„ein Auseinanderbrechen der EU und der NATO und damit die Vermeidung des Dritten Weltkriegs“. (5)In EU und NATO sieht Roberts ebenso wie Trump, böse Institutionen, (6) jedoch von einem diametralen Ansatz her:„Diese beiden Institutionen sind Mechanismen, die von Washington geschaffen wurden, um die Souveränität der europäischen Völker zu zerstören. Diese beiden Institutionen geben Washington die Kontrolle über die westliche Welt und dienen sowohl als Deckmantel als auch als Ermöglicher für Washingtons Aggressionen. Ohne die EU und die NATO könnte Washington Europa und das Vereinigte Königreich nicht in einen Konflikt mit Russland zwingen, und Washington hätte in 15 Jahren nicht sieben muslimische Länder zerstören können, ohne als verhasste Kriegsverbrecherregierung isoliert zu werden, deren Mitglieder nicht ins Ausland reisen könnten, ohne verhaftet und vor Gericht gestellt zu werden.“ (7)Marksteine nach 1945 auf dem Weg in die heutige KatastropheNach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg galt es dann, Europa für den Krieg gegen die Sowjetunion fit zu machen.Am 15. Mai 1947 verkündete US-Präsident Harry S. Truman seine Doktrin zur Eindämmung der weiteren Ausdehnung der Sowjetunion.Am 6. Juni 1947 folgte der Marshallplan. Er hatte das Ziel, Westeuropa gegen den Ostblock zu stärken und der noch vom Krieg überhitzten amerikanischen Wirtschaft Absatzmärkte zu öffnen. (8)Am 26. Juli 1947 wurde der „National Security Act" für die militärische Durchdringung der Welt verabschiedet, eines der wichtigsten Gesetze der US-amerikanischen Nachkriegsgeschichte. Er ist bis heute die Grundlage weltweiter amerikanischer Militärmacht.Alle drei Ereignisse sind auf ein Ziel ausgerichtet: Die Zerstörung der SowjetunionDie heutige EU geht auf das „American Committee for European Unit" zurück.Am 23. April 1948 fand in New York ein erstes Treffen mit dem Ziel der Gründung des "American Committee for European Unit" (ACUE) statt.Dieses Komitee zur Unterstützung eines "freien und vereinigten Europa" war mit 17 Männern und zwei Frauen hochkarätig besetzt: der Diplomat William C. Bullitt, Ex-Präsident Herbert C. Hoover, der aus dem Umfeld der US-Geheimdienste zum Präsidenten des "Council on Foreign Relations" (CFR) aufgestiegene Allen Dulles oder William Joseph Donovan, der ehemalige Leiter des US-Geheimdienstes OSS...hier weiterlesen: https://apolut.net/eklat-im-oval-office-eine-gelungene-inszenierung-von-wolfgang-effenberger/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US-China relations during the Biden administration was marked by growing competition and rivalry. Many of the aspects of US-China relations of the first Trump presidency were retained by the Biden administration. We have now returned to a second Trump administration. What are we likely to now see in US foreign policy under a second Trump presidency; what will US-China relations likely be going forward? What will be the state of relations of each with players in Europe and in the Indo-Pacific? To examine these critical matters, it was with great pleasure that I invited my colleague Rush Doshi into the Virtual Studio for our new Season 3 of podcasts of ‘Shaking the Global Order'. Today's podcast with Rush explores these critical global power issues. Rush Doshi is the C.V. Starr senior fellow for Asia studies and director of the China Strategy Initiative at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). He is also an assistant professor in the Security Studies Program in Georgetown's Walsh School of Foreign Service. Rush was deputy senior director for China and Taiwan on the National Security Council (NSC) from 2021 to 2024, where he helped manage the NSC's first China directorate. He is the author of The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order (Oxford University Press, 2021). So, let's join Rush in the Virtual Studio to examine all these issues.

This past weekend voters in Kosovo went to the polls in an election that many saw as critical for the future of its relations with the US and the EU, but also when it comes to stalled talks with Serbia to normalize ties. Prime Minister Albin Kurti, who has pushed hardline policies vis-a-vis Kosovo's Serbs, won the general election, but his party fell short of a majority and will need to find a coalition partner to remain in power. Expert Charles Kupchan joins Thanos Davelis to break down why these elections matter not just for Kosovo, but for the Western Balkans and the broader region.Charles Kupchan is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and professor of international affairs at Georgetown University in the Walsh School of Foreign Service and Department of Government. He previously served as special assistant to the president and senior director for European affairs on the staff of the National Security Council in the Obama administration.You can read the articles we discuss on our podcast here:Why Kosovo's Election Matters For The Region And The WorldKosovo PM Albin Kurti wins election amid tensions with Brussels and WashingtonSerbia: Students mark 100 days since deadly canopy collapseTrump Says Call With Putin Is Beginning of Ukraine Peace NegotiationsTrump and Putin stun Europe with peace plan for Ukraine President-elect Tasoulas calls for national unity and social solidarity

The Journey Podcast 168Richard Grove and John O'Dowd: The British State Has Poisoned the World through its EmpirePublisher Kris Millegan speaks with Richard Grove, a conceptual artist and forensic historian who provides entrepreneur, executive and employee training through his University of Reason and its flagship course, AUTONOMY. His podcast can be found at GrandTheftWorld.com.And Kris speaks with John O'Dowd, co-author with Jim Macgregor of TWO WORLD WARS AND HITLER: Who Was Responsible?, available in early 2025. John is a retired scientist who worked for the UK government and several universities as a research manager. He discovered how “the Money Power” controls academic research, paradigms and teaching content, particularly in economics, political science and history, and, increasingly, natural sciences and medicine.Kris, Richard and John discuss alternative history, a la TRAGEDY AND HOPE, the 1966 textbook by Carrol Quigley, who was trained by a Rhodes scholar, and who, as a professor of foreign service at Georgetown University, trained Rhodes scholar Bill Clinton. There has been a lot of Rhodes scholar influence in America for a long time. So, who was Cecil Rhodes?Rhodes, a Brit and a Freemason, was funded by Lord Rothschild to work in South Africa, where he took over the diamond field of a farmer named DeBeers. Rhodes made John Ruskin's dream of the British Empire taking over the world his life's work. A necessary step toward that goal was bringing America back into the Empire.In his Rhodes will set up a scholarship at Oxford University to teach students from around the world this idea of British domination. This leads to the creation of World War I and how America was brought into the war and transformed into a military state.Jim Macgregor and Gerry Docherty wrote HIDDEN HISTORY: The Secret Origins of the First World War. When their publisher wouldn't publish the second volume, Kris Millegan of TrineDay did. It's called PROLONGING THE AGONY: How the Anglo-American Establishment deliberately extended World War 1 by Three and a Half Years.Quigley learned all this from a whistleblower and in 1948 wrote THE ANGLO-AMERICAN ESTABLISHMENT, which he instructed to be published after his death, so it came out in 1981. (It has the details of this plot to recapture America and conquer the world.) Quigley also studied the Council of Foreign Relations (CFR) records for 18 years, then wrote TRAGEDY AND HOPE, which came out in 1966.TRAGEDY AND HOPE 101 by Joseph Plummer is a tight summary of both Quigley books (TRAGEDY AND HOPE and THE ANGLO-AMERICAN ESTABLISHMENT). See JoePlummer.com. Basically, the Brits are using America's military as the property manager for what used to be the British Empire.The British were in Afghanistan for over one hundred years for the opium and then they handed that off to the Americans. We pay tax dollars to have our military bases all around the world. We did not start as an empire, getting into other people's business. We got seduced into excursions like the Spanish-American War, which led us to join the plan to dominate the world.John O'Dowd: Economics as taught at universities and taken into politics and the business world is a myth. It's designed to make money go from the bottom to the top, which is one of reasons we're in the mess that we're in. It makes sense on paper, but it doesn't refer to anything in real life.To really understand economics, you must read books like ECONOMISTS AND THE POWERFUL: Convenient Theories, Distorted Facts, Ample Rewards, and THE BUBBLE AND BEYOND: Fictitious Capital, Debt Inflation and Global Crisis by Michael Hudson.Richard: Mainstream economics works backward. It doesn't start with free market capitalism. It starts with slavery and black markets, and then Adam Smith and other East India Company people are added to put a shine and polish on the slavery.

Robert Ward hosts Dr Sheila Smith, Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), and Dr Jeffrey Hornung, the Japan Lead for the RAND National Security Research Division.   Robert, Sheila and Jeffrey discuss:   Japan's strategic landscape under Trump 2.0, including insights for PM Ishiba from Abe's successful approach Japan's defence policy challenges under Trump 2.0, including potential US demands for increased financial contributions to the security alliance. The future of minilateral security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific under Trump 2.0, notably QUAD and AUKUS The following books are recommended by our guests to gain a clearer picture of the topics discussed:   Abe Shinzo, Abe Shinzo Kaiko Roku [Abe Shinzo Memoir] (Tokyo: Chuokoron-Shinsha, Inc., 2023), 480pp. Funabashi Yoichi, Shukumei no Ko Volume 1: Abe Shinzou Seiken Kuronikuru [Destiny Child on Abe Shinzo Administration Chronicles Volume 1] (Tokyo: Bungeishunju Ltd., 2024), 560pp. Funabashi Yoichi, Shukumei no Ko Volume 2: Abe Shinzou Seiken Kuronikuru [Destiny Child on Abe Shinzo Administration Chronicles Volume 2] (Tokyo: Bungeishunju Ltd., 2024), 640pp. John W Dower, Embracing Defeat – Japan in the Wake of World War II, (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2000), 688pp. Nakae Chomin, A Discourse by Three Drunkards on Government, (Tokyo: Weatherhill Inc., 1992), 144pp. We hope you enjoy the episode and please follow, rate, and subscribe to Japan Memo on your podcast platform of choice. If you have any comments or questions, please contact us at japanchair@iiss.org.    Date recorded: 4 December 2024   Japan Memo is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

--{ "Drugs. Alcohol. Lots of sexual activity and massive promiscuity."}-- How are some nation's leaders reacting to the International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu? - U.S. Senator Lindsay Graham threatens sanctions against the U.K. if they help the ICC arrest 'Bibi' or any Israeli politician. - Victor Orban invites Netanyahu to Hungary despite being a signatory to the ICC. - Redux from Jan. 27, 2024 - A dying computer, a dryer at the end of its long life, car troubles, and a plumber. - Why is time the most precious thing we have? - In many talks, what has Alan Watt said about time? - The Parable of the Sower - Time, Worry, Focus, Energy - The American Thanksgiving - Brave New World with Nick Heys - Thankful to You Listeners - Drugs - Time is All You Have - Mind Control - Weaponized Entertainment - What is the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) involvement in this agenda? - What Observations about this agenda can be found in the Music Business, Show Business, Movies, Fashion, etc? - How did the music of the 1960s give the youth a new idea of purpose? - Drugs are Important to Those Who Rule the World - Flooded China with Bales of Opium - Australia's Drug Problems - CIA and Drugs - Sex and Drugs used as Weapons Since Ancient Times - The Formula of Drugs, Alcohol, Promiscuity, Abortion, Infanticide; Then Your Country is Overrun - The U.N.; the Individual is the Greatest Threat to this System - Old Values, Morality - What did Peter Hitchens write about Russia after Communism? - Massive Debt Incurred by Everybody - Usury - Bernays, Change the Consumer to Suit Your Product - Everybody is a Slave Borrowing Money All the Time - People Trained to be Egocentric - Australia as a Test bed for Certain Things; Revellers, Amphetamines, MDMA - Sodom and Gomorrah - Greece, Bacchanalia - Israel's Cabinet about to Approve Cannabis Exports - New York Legislation is "Celebrated" that Allows Abortion Up to Day of Birth.

As our centennial series continues, Gideon Rose, adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), the former editor of Foreign Affairs and author of How Wars End (Simon & Schuster, 2010) reviews the history of American foreign policy toward the Middle East alongside Rami Khouri, Palestinian-American journalist, senior public policy fellow at the American University of Beirut, nonresident senior fellow at the Arab Center Washington, op-ed contributor Al Jazeera online, and co-author of Understanding Hamas: And Why That Matters (OR Books, 2024).

After a year of fighting between Israel, Iranian proxies, and now Iran itself, it's still unclear how this war will end. Hezbollah and Hamas are militarily devastated. The Iranian regime has never looked weaker. But the Israel-Hamas war is also nowhere close to being settled, Israel is only now beginning its operations in southern Lebanon, and the world is still awaiting Israeli retaliation for Iran's October 1 missile attack. In this episode of WTH Live! Elliott Abrams, David Deptula, and Eyal Hulata join Dany at AEI to discuss what the future of Israel's de facto war with Iran should and will look like. Elliott Abrams is a senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). He previously served as deputy assistant to the president and deputy national security advisor in the administration of President George W. Bush, where he supervised U.S. policy in the Middle East for the White House, and as Special Representative for Iran and Venezuela in the administration of Donald Trump.Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula (Ret.) serves as the Dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. Gen. Deptula was the principal attack planner for the Operation Desert Storm air campaign, commander of no-fly-zone operations over Iraq in the late 1990s, director of the air campaign over Afghanistan in 2001, and has served on two congressional commissions charged with outlining America's future defense posture. Gen. Deptula retired from the Air Force in 2010 after more than 34 years of distinguished service.Eyal Hulata is a senior international fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Eyal previously served as Israel's national security advisor and head of Israel's National Security Council (NSC). During his tenure, Eyal coordinated the national effort on Iran, coordinated the maritime border agreement with Lebanon, and co-headed the Strategic Consultation Group with his American counterpart, Jake Sullivan. Read the transcript here. Subscribe to our Substack here.

On the day the Nobel Committee awards the Peace Prize, Gideon Rose, adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), the former editor of Foreign Affairs and author of How Wars End (Simon & Schuster, 2010), looks at this year's recipient and back through its impact over the last century, as part of our ongoing centennial series.

This year's Nobel Peace Prize winner is a Japanese organization working toward global nuclear disarmament.On Today's Show:On the day the Nobel Committee awards the Peace Prize, Gideon Rose, adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), the former editor of Foreign Affairs and author of How Wars End (Simon & Schuster, 2010), looks at this year's recipient and back through its impact over the last century, as part of our ongoing centennial series.

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and the Brookings Institution Foreign Policy Program are collaborating to convene an expert discussion to examine the future of the Middle East. As part of a series of virtual events convened by CFR and Brookings in the lead-up to Election Day, the conversation will examine the escalating conflicts in the Middle East and the policy options and priorities for an incoming U.S. administration in the region.  The series is a part of Election 2024, a CFR initiative focused on exploring the United States' role in the world, how international affairs issues affect voters, and the foreign policy issues at stake in November, and Election '24: Issues at Stake, a Brookings initiative aimed to bring public attention to consequential policy issues confronting voters and policymakers in the run up to the 2024 election. Both projects are made possible in part by grants from Carnegie Corporation of New York.

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and the Brookings Institution Foreign Policy Program collaborated to convene an expert discussion that examined the role of technology and electoral dynamics in the 2024 election. As part of a series of virtual events convened by CFR and Brookings in the lead-up to Election Day, the conversation examined how the perception of technology is influencing electoral credibility; cybersecurity and election integrity; and what is at stake for safeguarding our democratic processes in an era of disinformation. The series is a part of Election 2024, a CFR initiative focused on exploring the United States' role in the world, how international affairs issues affect voters, and the foreign policy issues at stake in November, and Election '24: Issues at Stake, a Brookings initiative aimed to bring public attention to consequential policy issues confronting voters and policymakers in the run up to the 2024 election. Both projects are made possible in part by grants from Carnegie Corporation of New York.

Step into the shadows of history with "The Hidden Hand: Unveiling the Global Conspiracy," a powerful exposé that dares to reveal the secrets of a world dominated by unseen forces. Based on the notorious 1967 recording by Myron C. Fagan, this presentation uncovers the chilling truth behind the Illuminati's centuries-old plot to control global events and manipulate the masses. From the founding of the Illuminati in the 1760s to their modern incarnation within the Council on Foreign Relations, this account delves deep into the machinations of international bankers, shadowy elites, and covert operations that have shaped the course of history. As wars raged and nations fell, the masterminds behind this grand conspiracy pulled the strings from behind the scenes, influencing the rise and fall of governments, the spread of communism, and the destruction of religious faith. Now, for the first time, this suppressed information is brought to light, challenging everything you thought you knew about the world around you. Prepare to question reality, as we explore the terrifying agenda that aims to enslave humanity under a one-world government, driven by the sinister forces of the Illuminati.Introduction and Context (0:00 - 0:40)Opening Remarks: The recording begins by introducing the concept of a world where nothing is random, and major global events are preordained and documented long before they occur.Myron C. Fagan: The speaker highlights that the recording was made in 1967 by Myron C. Fagan, a Hollywood writer who allegedly uncovered dark secrets within the Hollywood elite. Fagan dedicated his life to exposing these secrets, and the recording is presented as the culmination of his work.Purpose of the Recording: The recording claims to provide a historical lens through which the listener can understand the alleged hidden forces at play in the world. The content is framed not as conspiracy theory but as documented historical fact.The Illuminati and Media Control (0:40 - 6:25)The Illuminati: The recording introduces the Illuminati as the central force behind a global conspiracy aimed at destroying the sovereignty of the United States and enslaving its people within a one-world dictatorship. This conspiracy is purportedly unknown to the majority of Americans.Media Control: The recording asserts that the masterminds of this conspiracy have absolute control over mass communications media, including television, radio, press, and Hollywood. This control is claimed to extend to manipulating news and information to brainwash the public into accepting a one-world government.CIA and Media: There is a brief exchange where the speaker discusses the CIA's involvement in media, with allegations that the agency has paid contributors to major American journals, television networks, and news services like AP and UPI.Historical Origins of the Conspiracy (6:25 - 10:05)Adam Weishaupt and the Illuminati's Founding: The recording traces the origins of the Illuminati back to Adam Weishaupt, a former Catholic priest who, under the influence of the Rothschild family, founded the Illuminati in the 1760s. The Rothschilds are said to have financed the operation, which allegedly promoted every major war since the French Revolution.Council on Foreign Relations (CFR): The recording claims that after World War I, the Illuminati in the United States rebranded itself as the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), which continues to control the U.S. media and government.Press Control: Weishaupt's plan is said to have included gaining absolute control over the press to manipulate public opinion in favor of a one-world government.Illuminati's Influence and Strategy (10:05 - 15:01)World Wars and Revolutions: The recording details a supposed plan by Albert Pike, an Illuminati leader, to instigate three world wars and several revolutions to advance the conspiracy. The First World War was allegedly aimed at destroying the Tsarist regime in Russia and establishing atheistic communism.World War II and Beyond: World War II was purportedly orchestrated to build up communism to rival Christendom, with a final goal of leading to World War III, where political Zionism and Islam would destroy each other, leaving the world exhausted and ready for the Illuminati's control.Final Social Cataclysm: The recording claims that Pike foresaw a final social cataclysm, where nihilists and atheists would be unleashed, leading to the destruction of both Christianity and atheism, paving the way for the public revelation of Luciferian doctrine.The Role of International Bankers (15:01 - 19:08)International Bankers and Wars: The recording asserts that international bankers, particularly the Rothschild family, have financed both sides of every war and revolution since 1776. These bankers are said to be the true masterminds behind the global conspiracy, using wars to further their goals.Control of U.S. Finances: Jacob Schiff, a Rothschild agent, is introduced as a key figure in establishing control over the U.S. financial system. Schiff's mission included taking over the U.S. monetary system, promoting influential individuals into high government positions, creating racial strife, and destroying religion.Civil War and Post-War Influence (19:08 - 22:05)Civil War Efforts: The recording claims that the Illuminati's first concrete efforts to take over the U.S. were made during the Civil War, with Rothschild agents embedded in both the Confederate and Union governments. Abraham Lincoln's assassination is tied to this conspiracy, suggesting that Lincoln opposed the Rothschilds' plans, leading to his murder.Post-Civil War Influence: After the Civil War, the Rothschilds allegedly regrouped and continued their efforts, with Jacob Schiff arriving in America to carry out the conspiracy.Final Phases of the Conspiracy (22:05 - End)One World Government: The recording concludes by describing the final goal of the Illuminati—a one-world government controlled by a few elite individuals, including the United Nations, the CFR, and influential billionaires.Rothschild's Influence: The Rothschild family is depicted as the primary force behind the global conspiracy, with their agents, like Schiff, laying the groundwork for the financial and political control necessary to achieve their goals.Conclusion: The recording ends by reiterating that the global conspiracy has been in motion for centuries, with all major events in history being part of this master plan. The final objective is a one-world government, with all other forms of government and religion eradicated.This recording is presented as a detailed exposé of a global conspiracy led by the Illuminati, with historical events, wars, and political movements portrayed as orchestrated by this secretive group to achieve world domination. The content is delivered as a mixture of historical narrative and speculative interpretation, with the overarching theme of a hidden hand guiding the course of world history toward a predetermined outcome.

Joe and John interview Zongyuan Zoe Liu, Maurice R. Greenberg senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), about her recent article in Foreign Affairs, "China's Real Economic Crisis." 

The "carry" trade blows up – But now: Fully Resolved Economic Indicators Bad – but that good news for markets Under the radar layoffs happening... Gust Anthony Scaramucci , Founder, Skybridge Capital (Who has a few things to say about politics and the election). Anthony Scaramucci is the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge, a global alternative investment firm, and founder and chairman of SALT, a global thought leadership forum and venture studio. Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman in 2001. Earlier, he worked in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2022, Scaramucci was ranked #47 in Cointelegraph's Top 100 Influencers in Crypto and Blockchain. In 2016, he was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine's Power 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young's New York Financial Services “Entrepreneur of the Year” Award. Anthony is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and a board member of the Federal Enforcement Homeland Security Foundation. He is the author of five books. OPEN BOOK PODCAST ON APPLE Scaramucci served on President Donald J. Trump's 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee, and in 2017 briefly served as Chief Strategy Officer of the Export-Import (EXIM) Bank and White House Communications Director. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School. Follow @Scaramucci Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (CSCO), (BTCUSD)

Max and Donatienne are joined by Sophia Besch, Tara Varma, and Liana Fix for a summer special conversation on the Washington, DC think tank scene from a European perspective.   Sophia Besch is a senior fellow in the Europe Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Her area of expertise is European defense policy. Tara Varma is a visiting fellow at the Center of the United States and Europe at Brookings. Her research focus includes current French security proposals in the European framework, as well as ongoing efforts to materialize European sovereignty in traditional and non-traditional security fields. Liana Fix is a fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). She is a historian and political scientist with expertise in German and European foreign and security policy, European security, transatlantic relations, Russia, Eastern Europe, and European China policy.  Learn more:   Russian Roulette | CSIS Podcasts 

IRAN: Countdownt: Ray Takeyh is Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). His areas of specialization are Iran, U.S. foreign policy, and modern Middle East. Malcolm Hoenlein @Conf_of_pres @mhoenlein1 1849 TEHRAN

GOOD EVENING: The show begins tonight in Ukraine where the news is of a cross-border assault by Kyiv into Russia, and a report of a pending big push by Russia into Ukraine's defenses -- readying for talks to cut up the map. 1935 San Diego CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR FIRST HOUR 9-915 #UKRAINE: Big Russian push October. Anatol Lieven, Quincy Institutehttps://eadaily.com/en/news/2024/08/06/the-united-states-gave-61-billion-to-kiev-to-win-but-they-didnt-say-how-because-you-dont-have-to 915-930 #IRAN: Shoigu in Tehran, and why? Anatol Lieven, Quincy Institutehttps://eadaily.com/en/news/2024/08/06/the-united-states-gave-61-billion-to-kiev-to-win-but-they-didnt-say-how-because-you-dont-have-to 930-945 #SCALAREPORT: China's two-year-long recession continues and deepens. Chris Riegel CEO, Scala.com @Stratacache https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/maersk-expects-container-demand-growth-to-slow-raises-investment-forecast/ar-AA1oo6EA 945-1000 #VENEZUELA: Maduro tries lawfare and terror. Mary Anastasia O'Grady, WSJhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/lula-assists-the-maduro-steal-brazil-presidential-election-27a9cb50 SECOND HOUR 10-1015 IRAN: Countdown: Ray Takeyh is Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). His areas of specialization are Iran, U.S. foreign policy, and modern Middle East. Malcolm Hoenlein @Conf_of_pres @mhoenlein1 1015-1030 RUSSIA: Shoigu in Tehran and why? John Hardie serves as deputy director of FDD's Russia Program. His research focuses on Russian foreign and security policy, U.S. policy toward Russia and the post-Soviet space, and transatlantic relations. Malcolm Hoenlein @Conf_of_pres @mhoenlein1 1030-1045 #Antisemitism: Dr. Alan Mendoza is the founder and executive director of the Henry Jackson Society, a UK-based foreign and security policy think tank. Malcolm Hoenlein @Conf_of_pres @mhoenlein1 1045-1100 #ISRAEL: Routinely reported. Jonathan Conricus is a senior fellow at FDD focused on the Middle East. He served in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) for 24 years as a combat commander in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. He also served as a military diplomat, foreign relations expert, and international spokesperson. Malcolm Hoenlein @Conf_of_pres @mhoenlein1 THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 #NAGASAKI: Charles Sweeney knew of the schools and church in the target area. Charles Pellegrino, author, LAST TRAIN FROM HIROSHIMA. [Amazon links removed for brevity] 1115-1130 #NAGASAKI: The burning horses. Charles Pellegrino, author, LAST TRAIN FROM HIROSHIMA. [Amazon links removed for brevity] 1130-1145 #VPOTUS: Tim Walz from Tiananmen Square to the Dalai Lama. Josh Rogin, Washington Post.https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/08/08/walz-harris-campaign-china-experience/ 1145-1200 #IRAN: What does the Ayatollah want with his threats? Behnam Ben Taleblu, FDD https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-warns-iran-of-serious-risk-if-it-conducts-major-attack-on-israel/ar-AA1otb4u FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 #NewWorldReport: Venezuela: The Opposition in hiding from the regime. Latin American Research Professor Evan Ellis, U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. @revanellis #NewWorldReportEllishttps://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-launches-criminal-probe-into-publishers-election-tally-website-2024-08-07/ 1215-1230 #NewWorldReport: The guys with the guns pledge loyalty to Maduro. Latin American Research Professor Evan Ellis, U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. @revanellis #NewWorldReportEllishttps://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-launches-criminal-probe-into-publishers-election-tally-website-2024-08-07/ 1230-1245 #NewWorldReport: Brazil, Colombia and Mexico hesitate. Latin American Research Professor Evan Ellis, U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. @revanellis #NewWorldReportEllishttps://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-launches-criminal-probe-into-publishers-election-tally-website-2024-08-07/ 1245-100 am #NewWorldReport: The worst Amazon fires in two decades. Latin American Research Professor Evan Ellis, U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. @revanellis #NewWorldReportEllishttps://www.reuters.com/business/environment/fires-brazils-amazon-rainforest-july-surge-highest-two-decades-2024-08-01/

This week Mike and Jude are joined by joined by Robert D. Blackwill, Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), and senior fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Richard Fontaine, Chief Executive Officer of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). They discuss their new book Lost Decade: The US Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power (June 2024, Oxford University Press).

This week on Sinica, I chat with University of Melbourne transnational historian Pete Millwood about his outstanding book Improbable Diplomats: How Ping-Pong Players, Musicians, and Scientists Remade U.S.-China Relations. The road to normalization is told too often with a focus only on the Nixon-Kissinger opening and official diplomatic efforts culminating in the final recognition of the PRC in January 1979, but there's much more to the story than that, and Millwood tells it deftly, drawing on extensive archival research as well as interviews with many of those directly involved.3:33 — Transnational history 4:44 — The early, “pioneering” trips to China in the 1950s and ‘60s and China's shift in invitations 11:14 — The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations (NCUSCR) in the 1960s 16:27 — The role of the Committee of Concerned Asia Scholars (CCAS)20:43 — Why Nixon's opening to China was seen as so surprising, and the impact of the UN's shift in recognition from the ROC to the PRC on American thinking 24:57 — The Glenn Cowan and Zhuang Zedong ping-pong diplomacy story 31:21 — Edgar Snow's meeting with Mao33:43 — The return leg of ping-pong diplomacy and the National Committee's “baptism by fire”36:33 — The significance of the Philadelphia Orchestra's tour of China with Eugene Ormandy 42:23 — Jiang Qing and the controversy around the cancelled performing arts tour in the U.S. in 1975 46:03 — Kissinger's thinking in the early 1970s after the first communiqué 48:48 — The U.S.-China People's Friendship Association 50:42 — How scientific cooperation smoothed the process toward normalization under the Carter administration, the state of play in '77, and how Frank Press CSCPRC argued for greater reciprocity 1:02:25 — The politics in China in regards to the grander bargain and the decentralization of exchanges 1:05:43 — The disbandment of the CSCPRC and the reinvention of the NCUSCR 1:08:58 — Pete's suggestion for continuing academic and cultural exchange 1:12:51 — How Pete got interested in such an American and China-centric topic 1:18:02 — Pete's current projects Recommendations:Pete: Island X: Taiwanese Student Migrants, Campus Spies, and Cold War Activism by Wendy Cheng; Indelible City: Dispossession and Defiance in Hong Kong by Louisa Lim (also available as an audiobook read by the author) Kaiser: We Met in Beijing, a book of poems by Anthony Tao See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

NATO leaders are gathering in Washington this week as the military alliance celebrates its 75th anniversary, confronts the prospect of the return of NATO skeptic Donald Trump to the White House, the Ukraine war, and a bigger global role. We talk to Charles Kupchan is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and professor of international affairs at Georgetown University. Heavy Israeli bombardment is shaking Gaza City. Thousands of fleeing Palestinians are searching for shelter, and medical facilities have been forced to shut down.

Today we had the pleasure of hosting David Sacks, Fellow for Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), for a comprehensive discussion on China and the intricate dynamics of US-China, US-Taiwan, and cross-Strait relations. Prior to joining the CFR in 2017, David served at the American Institute in Taiwan focused on political military affairs. David's research spans Asia, China, Taiwan, defense and security, as well as political history and theory including the political thought of Hans Morgenthau. The CFR is an independent think-tank and publisher committed to providing insights into global affairs and serves as a resource for its members and the broader public in navigating the complexities of international relations. We have been interested for quite some time in finding an expert on China and were thrilled to visit with David. In our conversation, David first shares background on China's evolving role globally and the changing dynamics of US-China relations, the security-related and economic implications of conflict between China and Taiwan, the challenges in managing tensions in the Taiwan Strait, escalating tensions in the South China Sea, US-China rivalry in the region and its effects on maritime activity, and China's assertive foreign policy under Xi Jinping's leadership and its implications for global power dynamics. David shares his perspective on similarities and differences between the Trump and Biden Administrations' approaches to China, the feasibility and implications of decoupling from China economically and the interdependence between the US and China in the global economy, the potential for future leadership changes in China, and how other countries are responding to China's assertiveness including how European perceptions and policies towards China have evolved. We explore China's economic and demographic outlook and the country's overall strengths and weaknesses, potential implications if China were to become weaker in the next 10-20 years, the potential export of low-cost EVs from China, trust issues in US-China relations, Taiwan's perspective and defense strategies, the CFR's role in international diplomacy, and much more. Thank you, David, for sharing your insights with us all! We learned a tremendous amount and could have gone another hour we were so intrigued with the conversation. Mike Bradley kicked us off with a few updates. He noted the 10-year government bond yield looks to have found some temporary support at ~4.6% but will likely move on Friday's PCE deflator report. WTI (~$83/bbl) pulled back this past week on what looks to be temporary cooling in Mideast tension. Oil trader sentiment seems to have shifted to one that could be underestimating future geopolitical risks, which could send oil prices materially higher, and force OPEC to push barrels back into the market. Q4 earnings are kicking into high gear with ~35% of S&P 500 companies reporting this week, which should result in elevated broader market trading volatility. S&P 500 relative strength has recently reversed from overbought to oversold levels, and S&P 500 volatility has also spiked to 1-year highs. On the energy equity front, he highlighted that Q1 results are also beginning to kick into high gear with a barrage of results from E&Ps, Oil Majors, Oil Services & Refiners. Electric Utilities were by far the best performing S&P sector last week and there will be many companies reporting this week. He ended by discussing YTD Asian equity market performance, noting that Japan and Taiwan are the top two regional equity market performers. Arjun Murti discussed the concept of geopolitical risk premiums in oil prices, noting three key factors: structural changes in major producers, civil strife causing production fluctuations and difficult forecasting, and the impact of war. Sharing examples for each element, he noted the complex nature of geopolitical risk and its influence on s

Today's guest is Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, and a former senior advisor on Iran at the State Department. In this episode, we discuss the mindset of the Iranian regime and what the US' understanding of it may be, the so-called ‘axis of resistance' and Iran's use of proxies in various regional conflicts, and how that regional involvement is impacting the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the current war in Gaza. Full bio Ray Takeyh is Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). His area of specialization are Iran, U.S. foreign policy, and modern Middle East. Takeyh is, most recently, the author of The Last Shah: America, Iran and the Fall of the Pahlavi Dynasty. He is the coauthor of The Pragmatic Superpower: Winning the Cold War in the Middle East and Revolution & Aftermath: Forging a New Strategy toward Iran. He is author of three previous books, Guardians of the Revolution: Iran and the World in the Age of the Ayatollahs, Hidden Iran: Paradox and Power in the Islamic Republic, and The Origins of the Eisenhower Doctrine: The US, Britain and Nasser's Egypt, 1952-1957. He has written more than three hundred articles and opinion pieces in many news outlets including Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and Foreign Affairs. Takeyh has testified more than twenty times in various Congressional committees. Prior to joining CFR he has served as a senior advisor on Iran at the State Department, fellow at the Yale University, Washington Institute of Near East Policy and Middle East Center at University of California, Berkeley. Takeyh has a doctorate in modern history from Oxford University.

One of the keys to China's global rise has been its strategy of deploying sovereign wealth on behalf of state power. Since President Xi Jinping took office in 2013, China has doubled down on financial statecraft, making shrewd investments with the sovereign funds it has built up by leveraging its foreign exchange reserves. Sovereign Funds tells the story of how the Communist Party of China (CPC) became a global financier of surpassing ambition. Dr. Liu offers a comprehensive and up-to-date analysis of the evolution of China's sovereign funds, including the China Investment Corporation, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and Central Huijin Investment. Dr. Liu shows how these institutions have become mechanisms not only for transforming low-reward foreign exchange reserves into investment capital but also for power projection. Sovereign funds are essential drivers of the national interest, shaping global markets, advancing the historic Belt and Road Initiative, and funneling state assets into strategic industries such as semiconductors, fintech, and artificial intelligence. In the era of President Xi, state-owned financial institutions have become gatekeepers of the Chinese economy. Political and personal relationships with prestigious sovereign funds have enabled Blackstone to flourish in China and have fueled the ascendance of private tech giants such as Alibaba, Ant Finance, and Didi. ABOUT THE SPEAKER Zongyuan Zoe Liu is Maurice R. Greenberg fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Her work focuses on international political economy, global financial markets, sovereign wealth funds, supply chains of critical minerals, development finance, emerging markets, energy and climate change policy, and East Asia-Middle East relations. Dr. Liu is the author of Can BRICS De-dollarize the Global Financial System? (Cambridge University Press) and Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances its Global Ambitions (Harvard University Press). Dr. Liu completed her Ph.D at the Edwin Reischauer fellow at School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University. Prior to joining CFR, Dr. Liu was an instructional assistant professor at Texas A&M's Bush School of Government and Public Service in Washington, DC, where she taught courses on global economy, economic statecraft, and Chinese foreign policy.

Nearly three months into the Israel-Hamas war, we're back with Elliott Abrams for an update on what the hell is going on, and more importantly, where to go from here. The military objectives – what Israel must do in order to secure its people – are one level, but as the conflict continues, there are deeper issues that will take time and clarity to address. How do we deradicalize both the Palestinian population in support of Hamas? What about Hezbollah? Iran? And how can we help Israeli security when we are struggling Hamas supporters here at home? Why is the United States so loath to defend itself in the Red Sea? And why are there hundreds – hundreds—of Biden administration employees virtue-signaling their personal disagreement with the policy of the President of the United States?Elliott Abrams is a senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in Washington, DC. He served as deputy assistant to the president and deputy national security advisor in the administration of President George W. Bush, where he supervised U.S. policy in the Middle East for the White House, and as Special Representative for Iran and Venezuela in the administration of Donald Trump.Download the transcript here.Check out Elliott Abrams' recent piece here.Subscribe to the WTH substack here.

EPISODE 1901: In this KEEN ON show, Andrew talks to Charles Kupchan, author of ISOLATIONISM, about the illusional idealism shaping American foreign policyCharles Kupchan is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and professor of international affairs at Georgetown University in the Walsh School of Foreign Service and Department of Government. From 2014 to 2017, Kupchan served as special assistant to the president and senior director for European affairs on the staff of the National Security Council (NSC) in the Barack Obama administration. He was also director for European affairs on the NSC during the first Bill Clinton administration. Before joining the Clinton NSC, he worked in the U.S. Department of State on the policy planning staff. Previously, he was an assistant professor of politics at Princeton University. Kupchan is the author of Isolationism: A History of America's Efforts to Shield Itself From the World (2020), No One's World: The West, the Rising Rest, and the Coming Global Turn (2012), How Enemies Become Friends: The Sources of Stable Peace (2010), The End of the American Era: U.S. Foreign Policy and the Geopolitics of the Twenty-first Century (2002), Power in Transition: The Peaceful Change of International Order (2001), Civic Engagement in the Atlantic Community (1999), Atlantic Security: Contending Visions (1998), Nationalism and Nationalities in the New Europe (1995), The Vulnerability of Empire (1994), The Persian Gulf and the West (1987), and numerous articles on international and strategic affairs. Kupchan has served as a visiting scholar at Harvard University's Center for International Affairs, Columbia University's Institute for War and Peace Studies, the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, the Centre d'Étude et de Recherches Internationales in Paris, and the Institute for International Policy Studies in Tokyo. From 2006 to 2007, he was the Henry A. Kissinger scholar at the Library of Congress and a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. From 2013 to 2014, he was a senior fellow at the Transatlantic Academy. Kupchan received his BA from Harvard University and MPhil and DPhil from Oxford University.Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting KEEN ON, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy show. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children.

On October 7th, Israel suffered the worst attack it has experienced in its history at the hands of the terrorist group Hamas. 900 casualties in Israel, including at least 11 American citizens – not to mention around 150 hostages taken by Hamas, most back to the Gaza Strip where they will be held as bargaining chips. The shocking adjectives being used are spot on: heinous, evil, unconscionable. And one lesson has emerged crystal-clear: weakness on Iran does not lead to moderation and bonhomie, it leads to bloodshed and paves the path for terror. Obama's nuclear deals; Trump's tougher but ultimately unsustainable approach; Biden's inattention and subsequent $6 billion bribe to Iran – and people wonder why the Iranian regime thought that now might be a good time to push the envelope even further. What happens next will be decisive. We have watched Biden slow roll aid to Ukraine while Congress tears itself apart. We have watched successive administrations hope that pivoting to Asia will put the Middle East in the rear-view mirror. It won't. When tyrants and terrorists are persuaded the US is weak, they act. The time has come to change their minds.Elliott Abrams is a senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in Washington, DC. He served as deputy assistant to the president and deputy national security advisor in the administration of President George W. Bush, where he supervised U.S. policy in the Middle East for the White House, and as Special Representative for Iran and Venezuela in the administration of Donald Trump.Download the transcript here.

These days, it feels like customer service has been nearly all digitized. While confusion over ticket orders and lost packages can be frustrating, one space where it feels necessary for technology to hit the mark is health and wellness care. While online services and rapidly evolving technology should be making this process more fluid, moments like the crash of Healthcare.gov in 2013, as well as the shaky and muddled attempt for online services to provide benefits during COVID, call the effectiveness of this technology into question. But what is the reason for such outdated and inefficient systems when it comes to providing vital aid for people? Former deputy chief technology officer, Jennifer Pahlka, responds to this query in her new book Re-coding America: Why Government Is Failing in the Digital Age and How We Can Do Better. Pahlka argues that the government is stuck in an industrial-era culture, in which lofty goals set by the elite will often take years to be fully set in place. As time passes, the technology that these policies plan to implement is shockingly out of date. Pahlka makes the case that we must stop trying to move government onto new technology, but instead offer alternative methods to relying on outdated infrastructures. Join Jennifer Pahlka at Town Hall as she considers what it would mean to truly “recode” American government. Jennifer Pahlka is the former deputy chief technology officer of the United States and the founder of Code for America, a nonprofit that believes government can work for people in the digital age. Pahlka is the winner of a Skoll Award for Social Entrepreneurship, among others, and has been selected by Wired magazine as one of the people who have most shaped technology and society in the past twenty-five years. Tarah Wheeler is senior fellow for global cyber policy at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). She is also an information security executive, social scientist in the area of international conflict, and author of the best-selling book Women In Tech: Take Your Career to The Next Level With Practical Advice And Inspiring Stories. Recoding America: Why Government Is Failing in the Digital Age and How We Can Do Better Third Place Books

Sebastian is the Paul A. Volcker senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). An experienced journalist and public speaker, Mallaby contributes to a variety of publications, including Foreign Affairs, the Atlantic, the Washington Post, and the Financial Times, where he spent two years as a contributing editor. He is the author of five books, including bestseller More Money Than God: Hedge Funds and the Making of a New Elite and most recently The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future. In this podcast we discuss how Venture Capital (VC) work, Arthur Rock (father of VC), re-thinking Greenspan, and much more.   Follow us here for more amazing insights: https://macrohive.com/home-prime/ https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive    

Join us this week as we delve into the heart of Iran's turmoil with esteemed guest Elliott Abrams, former foreign policy advisor to Presidents Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, and Donald Trump. Gain exclusive insights and expert analysis on the current state of affairs in Iran, exploring the underlying factors, potential ramifications, and possible solutions. Don't miss this captivating episode as we unravel the complexities of one of the world's most critical geopolitical hotspots.We're also joined by Andrew Hale, the Jay Van Andel Senior Trade Policy Analyst at the Heritage Foundation, who brings his extensive experience in international trade and defense intelligence. Together, we examine the alarming issue of China defaulting on $850 billion of debt, shedding light on the potential global consequences and exploring the economic and geopolitical landscape. Don't miss this captivating episode as we unravel the complexities of Iran's chaos and China's financial challenges._Elliott Abrams is senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in Washington, DC. He served as deputy assistant to the president and deputy national security advisor in the administration of President George W. Bush, where he supervised U.S. policy in the Middle East for the White House, and as Special Representative for Iran and Venezuela in the administration of Donald Trump.Abrams was educated at Harvard College, the London School of Economics, and Harvard Law School. After serving on the staffs of Senators Henry M. Jackson and Daniel P. Moynihan, he was an assistant secretary of state in the Reagan administration and received the secretary of state's Distinguished Service Award from Secretary George P. Shultz. In 2012, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy gave him its Scholar-Statesman Award.Abrams was president of the Ethics and Public Policy Center in Washington, DC, from 1996 until joining the White House staff. He was a member of the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom from 1999 to 2001 and chairman of the commission in the latter year, and served a second term as a member of the Commission in 2012-2014. From 2009 to 2016, Abrams was a member of the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Council, which directs the activities of the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum. He is a member of the board of the National Endowment for Democracy, and teaches U.S. foreign policy at Georgetown University's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service.Abrams joined the Bush administration in June 2001 as special assistant to the president and senior director of the National Security Council for democracy, human rights, and international organizations. From December 2002 to February 2005, he served as special assistant to the president and senior director of the National Security Council for Near East and North African affairs. He served as deputy assistant to the president and deputy national security advisor for global democracy strategy from February 2005 to January 2009, and in that capacity supervised both the Near East and North African affairs and the democracy, human rights, and international organizations directorates of the National Security Council.Abrams rejoined the State Department in January 2019 as Special Representative for Venezuela, and in August 2020 took on the additional position of Special Representative for Iran. He left the Department in January 2021.Abrams is the author of five books: Undue Process, Security and Sacrifice, Faith or Fear: How Jews Can Survive in a Christian America, Tested by Zion: The Bush Administration and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, and most recently Realism and Democracy: American Foreign Policy After the Arab Spring. He is the editor of three more, Close Calls: Intervention, Terrorism, Missile Defense and "Just War" Today; Honor Among Nations: Intangible Interests and Foreign Policy; and The Influence of Faith: Religious Groups and U.S. Foreign Policy.Andrew is the Jay Van Andel Senior Policy Analyst in Trade Policy in Heritage's Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies.Andrew Hale is currently the Jay Van Andel Senior Trade Policy Analyst at the Heritage Foundation. A dual citizen of the U.S. and the United Kingdom, he has previously worked for the UK Department for International Trade, in Defense Intelligence, and for Parliament. In the U.S. he has worked for the State Department and for a Member of Congress._Connect with us:www.breakingbattlegrounds.voteTwitter: www.twitter.com/Breaking_BattleFacebook: www.facebook.com/breakingbattlegroundsInstagram: www.instagram.com/breakingbattlegroundsLinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/breakingbattlegrounds This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit breakingbattlegrounds.substack.com

Turkey held its scheduled elections on May 14, with mixed results. While President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development-led “People's Alliance” has likely held its parliamentary majority, the presidential election results are still unclear. The polls accurately depicted a close race between President Erdogan and his challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. At present, neither candidate appears to have crossed the 50% threshold necessary to clinch the presidency, and thereby triggering a runoff election on May 28.To discuss what lies ahead, FDD will host a panel featuring Steven Cook, senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies and director of the International Affairs Fellowship for Tenured International Relations Scholars at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR); Howard Eissenstat, associate professor of Middle East history at St. Lawrence University; and Sibel Oktay, non-resident senior fellow of Public Opinion and Foreign Policy at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. The panel will be moderated by Sinan Ciddi, non-resident senior fellow at FDD and associate professor of national security studies at Marine Corps University.

Data collected from millions of entrepreneurs all around the world has been pulled together for the first time in a global index measuring their economic benefits. The information was collated by Shopify, the global commerce platform that says it's effectively a one-stop shop for retailers selling online and beyond. Joining Julia to discuss is Shopify President Harley Finkelstein.  Also on today's show: Sheila A. Smith, the John E. Merow senior fellow for Asia-Pacific studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). To learn more about how CNN protects listener privacy, visit cnn.com/privacy

Banks are in the tank – bad mojo out there. The Fed and Treasury getting out the playbook – keep up confidence at any cost! QT turns to QE – half of April's QT bought back – just last week! Guest - Anthony Scaramucci discusses some really interesting topics such as the Avatars of Our Anger, the ongoing Jihad to punish bank execs and his take on bitcoin. Anthony Scaramucci is the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge, a global alternative investment firm, and founder and chairman of SALT, a global thought leadership forum and venture studio. Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman in 2001. Earlier, he worked in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2022, Scaramucci was ranked #47 in Cointelegraph's Top 100 Influencers in Crypto and Blockchain. In 2016, he was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine's Power 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young's New York Financial Services “Entrepreneur of the Year” Award. Anthony is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and a board member of the Federal Enforcement Homeland Security Foundation. He is the author of five books. OPEN BOOK PODCAST ON APPLE Scaramucci served on President Donald J. Trump's 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee, and in 2017 briefly served as Chief Strategy Officer of the Export-Import (EXIM) Bank and White House Communications Director. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School. Follow @Scaramucci Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (FRB), (BAC), (AAPL), (PACW)

The TNWAC and American Council on German series "In Focus: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine" presents "One Year Later." Ambassador John C. Kornblum has a long record of service in the United States and Europe both as a diplomat and as a businessman. He is recognized as an eminent expert on U.S.-European political and economic relations, in particular in Central and Eastern Europe. He served as the U.S. Ambassador to Germany from 1997 to 2001. Before that, he occupied a number of high-level diplomatic posts, including U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European affairs, Special Envoy for the Dayton Peace Process, U.S. Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (Helsinki Process), Deputy U.S. Ambassador to NATO, and U.S. minister and deputy commandant of forces in divided Berlin. From 2001 to 2009, he was chairman of Lazard Freres Germany. He currently serves as senior counsellor to the international law firm Noerr LLP and as a senior adviser to the worldwide consultancy Accenture. Mr. Kornblum has also served on a number of supervisory and advisory boards including those of Thyssen-Krupp, Technologies AG, Bayer AG, Russell Reynolds, and Motorola Europe. He is a member of the boards of the American Chamber of Commerce in Germany, the American Academy in Berlin, the Deutsche Oper in Berlin, and of numerous nonprofit organizations on both sides of the Atlantic. He received a B.A. from Michigan State University in 1964, and he has been the recipient of many awards, including a Knights Cross of the Order of Merit from Germany and an Order of Merit from Austria. Dr. Liana Fix Liana Fix is a fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). She is a historian and political scientist, with expertise in German and European foreign and security policy, European security, transatlantic relations, Russia, and Eastern Europe. She is also the author of A New German Power? Germany's Role in European Russia Policy (Palgrave Macmillan, 2021). Dr. Fix's work focuses on German domestic and foreign policy, the European Union, transatlantic relations, and Europe's relations with Russia and China.

The following conversation is with Liana Fix. Dr. Fix is a fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). She is a historian and political scientist, with expertise in German and European foreign and security policy, European security, transatlantic relations, Russia, and Eastern Europe. She is also the author of A New German Power? Germany's Role in European Russia Policy (Palgrave Macmillan, 2021). Dr. Fix's work focuses on German domestic and foreign policy, the European Union, transatlantic relations, and Europe's relations with Russia and China.Rate and subscribe if you enjoy the content and follow 'overcoming_the_divide'  on Instagram & Twitter!Time Stamps:00:00 Intro02:40  The Nord Stream Pipeline and it's destruction5:10  The possible actors involved in destroying the pipeline8:30 The hypothetical if the Ukrainian state did have ties to the Nordstream pipeline11:45 NATO's and Ukraine's best interest 19:30 The long term strategy aim for Putin's war in Ukraine25:30 The concern with if Putin were to be removed from power29:30 Germany's role in the war vs what it should be35:15 Understanding the depth of this war and its history The Story of Russia (Orlando Figes)Music: Coma-Media (intro)                 WinkingFoxMusic (outro)Recorded: 3/3

The following conversation is with Charles Kupchan. Kupchan is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and professor of international affairs at Georgetown University in the Walsh School of Foreign Service and Department of Government.From 2014 to 2017, Kupchan served as special assistant to the president and senior director for European affairs on the staff of the National Security Council (NSC) in the Barack Obama administration. He was also director for European affairs on the NSC during the first Bill Clinton administration.  Before joining the Clinton NSC, he worked in the U.S. Department of State on the policy planning staff.  Previously, he was an assistant professor of politics at Princeton University.Kupchan is the author of Isolationism: A History of America's Efforts to Shield Itself From the World (2020), No One's World: The West, the Rising Rest, and the Coming Global Turn (2012), How Enemies Become Friends: The Sources of Stable Peace (2010) Rate and subscribe if you enjoy the content and follow 'overcoming_the_divide'  on Instagram & Twitter!Time stamps::30 Where is the war heading in its' second year4:20 Should the US pursue for a diplomatic solution now7:05 Shepparding battlefield efforts to peace negotiations 11:40 The possibility of escalation and the use of a tactical nuclear weapon 16:40 Escalation in the war with supplying Ukraine Tanks and the possibility of F16s22:00 France's possible role in a diplomatic solution25:25 Boris Johnson's trip to Ukraine in April of 202228:20 The Nord Stream Pipeline32:45 Best possible case scenario in the next 6-12 months Music: Coma-Media (intro)                 WinkingFoxMusic (outro)Recorded: 3/3

Sebastian Mallaby joined the OODAcast for a discussion about the Power Law in venture capital and the rise of the global hedge fund and private equity industries. Sebastian's book “The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future” is one of the most insightful books on the venture capital industry I've read to date and was included in my Top 10 Security, Technology & Business books of 2022. In this conversation, we discuss the differences between different investment companies like venture capital, private equity, and hedge funds and discuss the financial and geopolitical mechanics and decision-making approaches that allow for success in each variation. Official Bio: Sebastian Mallaby is the Paul A. Volcker senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). An experienced journalist and public speaker, Mallaby contributes to a variety of publications, including Foreign Affairs, the Atlantic, the Washington Post, and the Financial Times, where he spent two years as a contributing editor. He is the author of five books, most recently The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future. (Long Bio) Sebastian's Books: The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future More Money Than God: Hedge Funds and the Making of a New Elite The Man Who Knew: The Life and Times of Alan Greenspan Sebastian on Twitter Book Recommendation:The Creativity Code

At the posting of this episode —Nigeria's tightest presidential election in a generation — Africa's most significant democratic exercise —has yet to be decided.However, Nigeria's political map will never be the same after this election. This phenomenon has been years in the making.Joining us to discuss these dynamics is Ebenezer Obadare, Douglas Dillon senior fellow for Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Before joining CFR,  Obadare was a political reporter for The News and TEMPO magazines from 1993 to 1995, and a lecturer in international relations at the Obafemi Awolowo University from 1995 to 2001. His primary areas of interest are civil society and the state, and religion and politics in Africa.Be on the lookout for pt. 2 of this conversation!Remember to leave 5-stars and share with a friend!

Turkey's president has announced May 14 as the date for the country's next parliamentary and presidential elections. These elections are drawing the attention of the world, and many - including The Economist - are describing them as the country's last chance for democracy. Steven Cook, the Eni Enrico Mattei senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and a Turkey expert, joins Thanos Davelis to look at the stakes involved in these elections for Turkey's democracy. We also look at how these elections could impact a number of key issues in Turkey's relations with the US and the West, from the potential sale of American F-16s to Turkey to its continued threats in the Aegean. Read Steven Cook's latest in Foreign Policy: What Everyone Gets Wrong About TurkeyYou can read the articles we discuss on our podcast here:Turkey could be on the brink of dictatorshipSweden cannot expect Turkey's support for Nato membership, Erdoğan warnsCFR: Conflicts to Watch in 2023Chief diplomats boycott Libya-hosted Arab League meetingLibya in a state of isolationAthens, Istanbul mayors send message of peace

In this episode of GREAT POWER PODCAST, host Michael Sobolik interviews Josh Kurlantzick about the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) public diplomacy, its malign activities around the world, and what it means for the United States. Guest Biography Joshua Kurlantzick is senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). He is the author, most recently, of Beijing's Global Media Offensive: China's Uneven Campaign to Influence Asia and the World. Kurlantzick was previously a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he studied Southeast Asian politics and economics and China's relations with Southeast Asia, including Chinese investment, aid, and diplomacy. Previously, he was a fellow at the University of Southern California Center on Public Diplomacy and a fellow at the Pacific Council on International Policy. He is currently focused on China's relations with Southeast Asia, and China's approach to soft and sharp power, including state-backed media and information efforts and other components of soft and sharp power. He is also working on issues related to the rise of global populism, populism in Asia, and the impact of COVID-19 on illiberal populism and political freedom overall. Resources from the Conversation Read Josh's new book, Beijing's Global Media Offensive Read Josh's previous book about China's public diplomacy Read reporting from Politico about Beijing's charm offensive Read reporting from The Wall Street Journal about China-Australia relations Subscribe to AFPC's Indo-Pacific Monitor

Richard Nathan Haass is an American diplomat. He has been president of the Council on Foreign Relations since July 2003, prior to which he was Director of Policy Planning for the United States Department of State and a close advisor to Secretary of State Colin Powell in the George W. Bush administration. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an American think tank specializing in U.S. foreign policy and international relations. Founded in 1921, it is a nonprofit organization that is independent and nonpartisan. CFR is based in New York City, with an additional office in Massachusetts. Its membership has included senior politicians, numerous secretaries of state, CIA directors, bankers, lawyers, professors, corporate directors and CEOs, and senior media figures.here is the link to his 2017 article entitle ""World Order 2.0"https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/globalized-world-order-sovereign-obligations-by-richard-n--haass-2017-01

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Manjari Chatterjee Miller, senior fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), to take a deep look into India's evolving partnerships and its position in the global system. They start by discussing India's role in the Quad and how it has shifted in recent years. They then unpack India's broader cooperative efforts within the Indo-Pacific. Finally, they assess the impact of the war in Ukraine on the India-Russia relationship, and what public perception of the war has been in India.