Podcast appearances and mentions of james montier

James Montier is an author, a member of GMO's asset allocation team and a partner at the firm. He also wrote the book on the seven sins of fund management. In this episode, James takes us through the seven sins, which apply to all investors, not just fund managers. They're even more relevant today, given the new era we're entering of markets and the economy.  If you want to listen to the full interview then follow the link to our sister podcast The Value Perspective. RUNNING ORDER: Part one - 00:53: forecasting and the illusion of knowledge Part two - 08:46: meeting companies, outsmarting everyone, short-term horizons Part three - 15:23: believing everything you read and group thinking NEW EPISODES: The Investor Download is available every Thursday and will be released at 1700 UK time. You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://schroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts and other podcast players. GET IN TOUCH: mailto: Schroderspodcasts@schroders.com find us on Facebook send us a tweet: @Schroders using #investordownload READ MORE: Schroders.com/insights LISTEN TO MORE: schroders.com/theinvestordownload Important information. This information is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. Any reference to sectors/countries/stocks/securities are for illustrative purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument/securities or adopt any investment strategy. Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider's consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data. Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. The views and opinions contained herein are those of individual to whom they are attributed, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or funds. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change. Issued by Schroder Investment Management Limited, 1 London Wall Place, London EC2Y 5AU. Registered No. 1893220 England. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.    

If you listened to our recent episode featuring Sean Peche, you might recall that he said he'd like to meet James Montier, the author of one of his favourite books. Well today, that dream is coming true. Sean and Andy Evans welcome James to the Value Perspective podcast. James Montier is an author and member of GMO's asset allocation team and a partner at the firm. Previous to his tenure at GMO, he was co-head of global strategy at Societe Generale. He is also a visiting fellow at Durham University and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts. Andy, Sean and James discuss James' piece on the Seven Sins of Fund Management, James' thought on his latest piece explaining why he was wrong to predict that corporate margins were supposed to come down and why they had stuck above their respected median for so long, and Andy's favourite investment piece, If it Makes you Happy, which was also authored by James many years ago when he worked at Dresdner Kleinwort. This was a delightful episode to make and we hope you enjoy it just as much.     Enjoy! NEW EPISODES: We release main series episodes every two weeks on Mondays. You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://tvpschroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and other podcast players. GET IN TOUCH: send us a tweet: @TheValueTeam  Important information. This podcast is for investment professionals only. This information is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider's consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data. Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Any references to securities, sectors, regions and/or countries are for illustrative purposes only. The views and opinions contained herein are those of individual to whom they are attributed, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or funds. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change.

In the fourth episode of our Meet the Manager series – Simon Hallett returns to the Value Perspective podcast to interview Fund Manager Andy Evans. Football fans will remember Simon's last appearance on the podcast because not only has he had an illustrious career as a professional investor, spending the majority of his time at Harding Loevner first as a fund manager and then finally as their CIO, he is also the Chairman of Plymouth Argyle F.C.. Since he last appeared on the podcast in January 2022, we have two rounds of congratulations to offer Simon; the first for the birth of his latest grandchild and the second for his team Plymouth Argyle winning the League One Championship. Andy Evans joined Schroders and the Value Team in 2015 and was a sell side analyst for eleven years before that. We love an investment recommendation on the Value Perspective, and Andy's favourite investment book is The Psychology of Happiness by James Montier, who has also been a guest on the podcast. Simon and Andy discuss: investing trying to take advantage of human behaviour by humans themselves; the role of luck and judgement in investing; how to learn from past mistakes; and how to build a team with psychological and emotional resilience. Enjoy! NEW EPISODES: We release main series episodes every two weeks on Mondays. You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://tvpschroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and other podcast players. GET IN TOUCH: send us a tweet: @TheValueTeam  Important information. This podcast is for investment professionals only. This information is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider's consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data. Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Any references to securities, sectors, regions and/or countries are for illustrative purposes only. The views and opinions contained herein are those of individual to whom they are attributed, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or funds. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change.  

More than a decade ago, GMO strategist James Montier published a paper predicting that corporate profit margins were destined to come down from "nosebleed" levels. Fast forward to 2023, and it's clear that hasn't happened as profit margins remain far above their long-term average. On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, Montier explains what he got wrong back in 2012, why corporate profits have remained so stubbornly high, and what this could mean for stock valuations now. He also discusses the ongoing debate over whether high corporate earnings are fueling inflation, as well as revisiting the work of economist Michael Kalecki.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Trong cuốn sách này, chuyên gia về tài chính hành vi James Montier nhấn mạnh những xu hướng hành vi nguy hiểm và những sai lầm tâm lý phổ biến mà các nhà đầu tư chuyên nghiệp gặp phải. Tác giả cũng chỉ cho chúng ta cách để nhận ra các bẫy tâm trí này đồng thời tìm ra những nguyên lý của tâm lý học ẩn sâu trong các sai lầm đó. Bên cạnh đó, Montier cũng chỉ cho bạn những gì bạn có thể làm để bảo vệ danh mục đầu tư và đảm bảo lợi nhuận. Trong cuốn sách này, chúng ta cũng sẽ cùng nhau quan sát cách một số nhà đầu tư bậc nhất trên thế giới áp dụng để phát triển các quy trình đầu tư có thể giảm thiểu tối đa sai lầm trong hành vi của họ.Theo từng chương, Montier giải thích về tầm quan trọng của việc học cách chuẩn bị, lập kế hoạch, và tiếp theo là cam kết với một chiến lược. Cụ thể, bạn sẽ thực hiện các phân tích đầu tư trong trạng thái lý tính và tỉnh táo khi mà thị trường không có quá nhiều biến động, và tiếp đó cam kết trước để tuân theo những phân tích và các bước hành động đã vạch ra. Ông cũng nhấn mạnh sự điên rồ khi cố gắng dự báo diễn biến của thị trường trong tương lai và chỉ ra sự khác biệt khi tiếp cận đầu tư mà không cần giả định chúng ta biết những gì sẽ xảy ra trong tương lai. Xuyên suốt cuốn sách, Montier nhấn mạnh lý do tại sao việc cần phải tập trung vào quá trình hơn kết quả là điều quan trọng trong đầu tư. Tập trung vào quá trình, Montier cho thấy sự giải phóng khỏi lo lắng đối với những khía cạnh đầu tư mà chúng ta thực tế không thể kiểm soát, như lợi tức. Bắng cách tập trung vào quá trình, chúng ta có thể tối đa hóa tiềm năng tạo lợi nhuận dài hạn tốt nhất.Tâm Lý Hành Vi Trong Đầu Tư Chứng Khoán cung cấp cho nhà đầu tư những cách thức đã được thời gian thử nghiệm để xác định và phòng tránh những bẫy tâm lý dẫn đến các xu hướng hành vi bất lợi trong đầu tư. Với những chiến lược đơn giản, bạn có thể đánh bại kẻ thù lớn nhất của mình trong sự nghiệp đầu tư của mình – bản thân bạn.--Về Fonos:Fonos là ứng dụng sách nói có bản quyền. Trên ứng dụng Fonos, bạn có thể nghe định dạng sách nói của những cuốn sách nổi tiếng nhất từ các tác giả trong nước và quốc tế. Ngoài ra, bạn được sử dụng miễn phí nội dung Premium khi đăng ký trở thành Hội viên của Fonos: Tóm tắt sách, Ebook, Thiền định, Truyện ngủ, Nhạc chủ đề, Sách nói miễn phí cho Hội viên.--Tải ứng dụng Fonos tại: https://fonos.app.link/tai-fonosTìm hiểu về Fonos: https://fonos.vn/Theo dõi Facebook Fonos: https://www.facebook.com/fonosvietnam/Theo dõi Instagram Fonos: https://www.instagram.com/fonosvietnam/Đọc các bài viết thú vị về sách, tác giả sách, những thông tin hữu ích để phát triển bản thân: http://blog.fonos.vn/

This week we're joined by Ben Inker from GMO, where he's the Co-Head of Asset Allocation. He joined the firm right after graduation from college in 1992 and has worked very closely with finance legend Jeremy Grantham. He is also an active contributor to GMO's most extensive research library. You can find some of Ben's recent investment insights with the following links: https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/3q-2022-gmo-quarterly-letter_gmoquarterlyletter/ https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/growth-traps-snap-shut_insights/ We'd like to thank Robert Hunter for introducing us to Ben. Robert organises the London Value Investor Conference each year, which we suspect fans of this podcast would be interested in.  This year's conference is coming up on the 18th of May and Ben will be speaking.  We sat down with Ben to discuss; his experiences working closely with Jeremy Grantham and James Montier; answering the question, ‘is mean reversion dead?'; how to help clients break from old habits and move into the uncomfortable; where he thinks value is in today's cycle; and the difference between value and growth traps. Enjoy!   NEW EPISODES: We release main series episodes every two weeks on Mondays. You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://tvpschroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and other podcast players. GET IN TOUCH: send us a tweet: @TheValueTeam  Important information. This podcast is for investment professionals only. This information is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider's consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data. Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Any references to securities, sectors, regions and/or countries are for illustrative purposes only. The views and opinions contained herein are those of individual to whom they are attributed, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or funds. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change.

Now the Global Head of Quantitative Research at Soc Gen, Andrew Lapthorne got an early taste in unconventional macro thinking from the likes of Albert Edwards and James Montier. Over a career spanning 25 years, Andrew has engaged in the study of market prices, seeking understanding in their levels and volatilities both on an absolute and relative basis. Out of this work comes a framework for helping investors identify, capture and defend against risk exposures. Our conversation considers some of the market vol episodes most formative to Andrew's process. And here we travel all they way back to the late 1990's when, post the Asian crisis, disinflation began to travel around the world, depressing bond yields and leading to increasingly active Central Banks. The result, a tech bubble and substantial de-rating of all assets cyclical. The GFC was, unsurprisingly, greatly instructive for Andrew as well, helping him appreciate the Merton “distance to default” risk that equity investors are subject to. In the balance of our discussion, we consider the here and now and learn of the work that Andrew and his team are doing for clients seeking refuge from inflation. In this context, he's suggested that bond investors use “dangerous equity to hedge safe bonds”, an idea that identifies certain stocks, like those driven by an underlying commodity, as performing strongly during inflationary periods. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Andrew Lapthorne.

If there was a word of the year for 2021, it would be “transitory.” Ever since the Fed declared that inflation would be transitory in March 2021, analysts have challenged that assertion and, indeed, have questioned the definition of transitory. Inflation has broad ramification for financial plans, since it affects interest rates, the price of assets and whether cash flows will be sufficient to keep pace with rising prices of goods and services.  Here to discuss that question is James Montier, the co-author of two recent commentaries on the likelihood of transitory inflation and how investors should protect against various outcomes.

Why are investors irrational? Excellent question! As much as we like to think we are rational, in reality, we're not. All of these are due to Behavioral Biases. A wide range of these biases can really affect your decision making without you even knowing it, and it can potentially affect your investment decisions as well. That is why in this episode, we are going to explore: Why investors are irrational? What are the top 3 most common biases that affect our decision making? What can we do about it? So check out this episode to find out more! Also, if you find this podcast beneficial to you, do subscribe and share it with someone who will benefit from this as well. I believe the world will definitely be a much better place when we start giving, loving, sharing. That is my definition of abundance. If you have any questions in mind that you'd like to ask, feel free to send us your questions at Delugne.com and I will do my best to get them answered. Source: 1. Behavioral Finance - Corporate Finance Institute https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/behavioral-finance/ 2. Morningstar's interview with James Montier: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAdifeS91KM

Brian and Tom discuss James Montier's "The Little Book of Behavioral Investing" Topics cover some of the mental errors we are likely to make as investors, and how to protect our portfolios from those errors. This is a long episode, but well worth the time...or just buy the book!  Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/fierce-fiduciary-podcast/donations

Investing is as much of an art is it is a science. Which is why our behaviour and our emotions can have a strong impact on our ability to make optimal investment decisions.Understanding behavioural investing and how you can overcome your emotions to make important investment decisions can be integral to achieving your long-term goals. The Little Book of Behavioural Investing by James Montier explains the important behavioral challenges faced by investors. Listen to this Podcast by Edelweiss MF & learn more!1. More often than not, investors are their own worst enemies. They let their emotions get in the way of making objective investment decisions. 2. According to some psychologists, our brain processes information in two ways, using two systems- the X system and the C system. The X system is more emotionally oriented and impulsive. It is the brain's default mode of operation that comes into play automatically and effortlessly for generally quick responses. 3. The C system is not just more logical but is also slower than the X System. People who use the C System usually take time to take a step back, assess the situation, and then take a decision. 4. It because of the X System that we often let our behavioural and emotional biases overcome investment decision making.5. The X System makes us over-confident and over-optimistic about our ability to make investment decisions and discourages us from thinking logically. 6. This gives rise to empathy gaps, ie., an inability to predict or control our future behaviour especially in an environment of emotional stress. When it comes to investing, empathy gaps can lead to massive losses. To avoid making mistakes due to empathy gaps, Montier advises the strategy of pre-commitment: to plan your investment when you are not agitated and the markets are stable.7. Another behavioural bias that can be detrimental to optimal investment decision making is overconfidence. Various studies have found that on an average experts tend to be more overconfident and that humans tend to confuse confidence with skill. 8. Investors who are looking to overcome this bias should actively seek information that can prove their analysis wrong. This way they can ensure that the logic they are applying is free of bias. 9. Most people see inaction as a bad thing. However, investors must remember that the opposite of action bias is not inaction, but patience. Patience and discipline are the best friends of an investor. The Little Book of Behavioural Investing by James Montier very clearly dwells upon behavioural investing and its value in investment decision making. We hope you enjoyed this Edelweiss Money Konnect podcast and will tune in to listen to more such podcasts on investing nuggets. 

È come ci comportiamo nelle situazioni di stress che determina il destino dei nostri investimenti. Perché è proprio in questi momenti che ci facciamo trasportare dall’emotività e tendiamo a commettere gli errori più grossi in qualità di investitori. È dunque possibile imparare a gestire la nostra emotività di fronte alle oscillazioni dei mercati? Quali sono gli errori che possiamo commettere e come possiamo prevenirli?In questa nuova puntata del WikiLixi Podcast, Luca e Lorenzo ci parlano dell’economia comportamentale e della psicologia dell’investitore, prendendo spunto dal libro "Penso Dunque Investo" di James Montier. Ma perché ogni investitore dovrebbe studiare e approfondire l’economia comportamentale?Perché l’investitore è come un moderno Ulisse, che deve resistere al canto delle Sirene, ossia alla volatilità del mercato. Come fare per non cadere in tentazione e commettere degli errori? L’unica via è la creazione di un adeguato meccanismo di difesa (una strategia di investimento) che impedisca di cedere all’emotività del momento. Meccanismo di difesa che aiuta anche a non cadere nei tranelli che ci gioca il nostro cervello. Dall’empathy gap all’overconfidence, fino all’influenza che una presunta o una reale autorevolezza possono avere su di noi: tanti sono i possibili bias (distorsioni cognitive) a cui un investitore può andare incontro.E Luca e Lorenzo, in questo nuovo episodio, ci spiegheranno come riconoscerli e gestirli.Abbiamo parlato di:Penso dunque investo (min. 07:30)Chi è James Montier (min. 09:44)Perché l’economia comportamentale è importante (min. 13:15)Non esistono persone immuni ai bias cognitivi (min.21:00)L’investitore come Ulisse (min. 23:07)Il gap dell’empatia (min. 26:08)Gli “esperti” dei mercati finanziari (min. 40:42)Mai delegare ciecamente (min. 55:30)Le previsioni che non prevedono l’imprevisto (min. 59:40)Che cos’è davvero una previsione (min. 1h:9m)---Visita il nostro sito www.lixiinvest.com e il nostro gruppo www.wikilixi.comFeedback, domande a staff@lixiinvest.com

Jacob Wolinsky worked in investing and financial journalism before founding ValueWalk, a site that curates information about investing, hedge funds, asset management, and the broader world of finance. We explore Jacob’s journey as an investor and an entrepreneur. This episode was a real treat for me because our guest was (and continues to be) instrumental to my growth as a value investor. Jacob gave us a ton of awesome reading material, and I can’t wait to dive into it. Links from the Show ValueWalk www.valuewalk.com ValueWalk Premium www.valuewalkpremium.com Hidden Value Stocks www.hiddenvaluestocks.com Jacob’s Reading List www.strategychainpodcast.com/support Time Stamps 0:06:34 – Jacob’s first experience as an investor: right for the wrong reason! 0:08:38 – A revelation: Benjamin Graham’s book The Intelligent Investor 0:14:49 – Greater Fool Theory: Beanie Babies and Trading Tulips 0:18:12 – Cigar Butts: Classic value investing 0:21:40 – The role of psychology in investing 0:24:15 – Jacob’s professional path into investing 0:32:01 – How Jacob got started writing for GuruFocus 0:40:40 – Circle of competence & the danger of overstepping like Long-Term Capital Management 0:44:22 – Patience: David Einhorn’s Fooling Some of the People All of the Time and Christine Richard’s Confidence Game (About Bill Ackman) 0:46:36 – Joel Greenblatt: positions took 2-3 years before they worked (on average) 0:47:43 – The advantages of being a small investor 0:50:04 – Taking the jump: focusing on ValueWalk full time 1:17:49 – HiddenValueStocks.com background 1:22:11 – Thoughts on conducting valuation after having run a real business 1:31:35 – Investing is extremely dependent on the individual’s personality 1:35:03 – Jacob’s favorite investing books: John Neff’s books (particularly John Neff on Investing), David Dreman’s books (particularly Contrarian Investing Strategies), Christopher Browne’s The Little Book of Value Investing, James Montier’s The Little Book of Behavioral Investing, The Millionaire Next Door by Thomas Stanley and William Danko, John Bogle’s books, Bruce Greenwald’s Value Investing from Graham to Buffett and Beyond, John Train’s Money Masters of Our Time, Joel Greenblatt’s You Can Be a Stock Market Genius, Ben Graham and David Dodd’s The Intelligent Investor, Andrew Tobias’ The Only Investment Guide You’ll Ever Need, William J. Bernstein’s The Four Pillars of Investing. Strategy Chain Links Rate and review the podcast at https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/strategy-chain/id1492935567 Find Amazon affiliate links at http://strategychainpodcast.com/support Send me questions at http://strategychainpodcast.com/contact Sign up for the email list at http://strategychainpodcast.com/ Social Media @strategychain (Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Medium)

On this week's episode of the Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan starts off by clearing up one important distinction about non-essential versus essential businesses. For a minute, Dan's rant gets a little heated. Then, Dan brings James Montier onto the podcast for this week's interview. James is the author of several well-known books such as  Value Investing Tools and Techniques for Intelligent Investment, Behavioral Investing: A Practitioners Guide to Applying Behavioral Finance, and The Little Book of Behavioral Investing. Dan and James immediately hit it off and talk about what drew them to the value investment, Warren Buffett, oil prices, COVID-19, opportunities in the market today... and much more.

On this week's episode of the Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan starts off by clearing up one important distinction about non-essential versus essential businesses. For a minute, Dan's rant gets a little heated. Then, Dan brings James Montier onto the podcast for this week's interview. James is the author of several well-known books such as  Value Investing Tools and Techniques for Intelligent Investment, Behavioral Investing: A Practitioners Guide to Applying Behavioral Finance, and The Little Book of Behavioral Investing. Dan and James immediately hit it off and talk about what drew them to the value investment, Warren Buffett, oil prices, COVID-19, opportunities in the market today... and much more.

Bloomberg Opinion columnist Barry Ritholtz speaks with James Montier, who is a member of the asset allocation team at Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. (GMO). Prior to that, he was the co-head of global strategy at Société Générale. Montier is also the author of several market-leading books, including “The Little Book of Behavioral Investing: How Not to Be Your Own Worst Enemy.”

Lerne mit dem Propheten den dritten Typ Anlage-Superheld kennen, und höre in Overconfidence Bias, Teil 2 rein. Teil 1 verpasst? Hier die Folge zum Nachhören. Erfahre außerdem, warum sich Analysten selbst überschätzen und wie du diese Erkenntnis in deine Anlageentscheidung einbringen kannst.  Warum wir uns nach Prognosen sehnen. Wie diese mit Ungewissheit der Zukunft vereinbar sind.  Der Beitrag aus der letzten Woche zum Nachhören. Warum Superhelden fliegen können aber keine guten Anlageentscheidungen treffen (auf die #MMP 008  Beitragsseite wechseln). Du erfährst, warum sich Mensch selbst überschätzt und wie sich diese verzerrte Wahrnehmung auf das Anlageverhalten auswirken kann.  # Inhalt  Der Prophet und sein Anlageverhalten. Anlaysten und die überschätzte Prognosequalität. Wie uns das Verlangen nach Kontrolle zur  Selbstüberschätzung animiert. Drei Maßnahmen für mehr Objektivität und effizientes Selbst-Management.   # Lesen, informieren, sehen: Literatur zum Beitrag. Kahnemann, Daniel: “Schnelles Denken. Langsames Denken.” Montier, James, Behaving Badly (February 2, 2006). Zum Paper weiter klicken.  Daniel, Crosby: Die Gesetze des Reichtums. Interview mit Ray Dalio in Forbes. James Montier, (2007): Behavioural Investing: A Practitioner's Guide to Applying Behavioural Finance. John Wiley & Sons Ltd James Montier (2010): The Little Book of Behavioral Investing: How not to be your own worst enemy (Little Books. Big Profits (UK) Calderon TG (1993) Predictive properties of analysts' forecasts of corporate earnings. Mid-Atlantic J. Bus 29: 41–58    # Bonus Hol dir dein Free-Book “Intelligent Entscheidungen” und damit fünf Anleitungen zu mehr Ertrag in deiner Geldanlage. Hol ich mir!   # Unterstützung Uns interessiert, wie wir dich unterstützen können. Nimm dir drei Minuten Zeit für unseren kurzen Fragebogen. Danke!   # Podcast abonnieren und bewerten Abonniere den Podcast, wenn dir gefällt, was du hier hörst. Schenke uns deine Podcast-Bewertung. Wie das geht, zeigt dir die Schritt-für-Schritt-Erklärung für Apple Podcast.

Our guest on this week's installment of "The Long View" podcast is James Montier. Montier is a member of the asset-allocation team at Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. Before joining GMO in 2009, he was co-head of global strategy at Societe Generale. A prolific and incisive writer, Montier has authored several books, including Behavioural Investing: A Practitioner's Guide to Applying Behavioural Finance; Value Investing: Tools and Techniques for Intelligent Investment; and The Little Book of Behavioral Investing. He's also a regular contributor to GMO's library of white papers and research studies on topics ranging from productivity, strategic asset allocation, contrarianism, and more. In addition to his duties at GMO, Montier is also a visiting fellow at the University of Durham and a fellow of the Royal Society of Arts. Background  Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. Behavioural Investing: A Practitioner's Guide to Applying Behavioural Finance by James Montier  Value Investing: Tools and Techniques for Intelligent Investment by James Montier  The Little Book of Behavioral Investing: How Not to Be Your Own Worst Enemy by James Montier  GMO's research library   Montier's articles in GMO's research library  Montier's Role at GMO "My role is essentially to be difficult, and it turns out I'm quite good at that." Montier describes his role at GMO and how his contributions to the firm are measured. (1:10-3:11) Ben Inker bio  Fostering Debate at GMO "We have never had a house view." Why debate and constructive devil's advocacy is welcome at GMO. (3:12-4:31) "Investing is one of those fields where there is almost constant evidence that we are all wrong." How to foster humility and a diversity of views. (4:32-7:38) Debating Jeremy Grantham on mean reversion: Montier gives an example of an issue the team has debated recently--how long it takes for markets to revert to their long-term averages. (7:39-9:36) Jeremy Grantham bio  "This Time Seems Very, Very Different" by Jeremy Grantham (GMO Quarterly Letter, 1Q 2017)   "The S&P 500: Just Say No" by Matt Kadnar and James Montier (Aug. 15, 2017)  Forecasting and Portfolio Construction How the debate over mean reversion informs GMO's asset-class forecasts. (9:37-10:09) GMO 7-Year Asset Class Forecast (May 2019)  Corporate concentration and low interest rates: How GMO is reconsidering these variables and their impact on the asset-class forecasts it makes. (10:10-11:38) "The Idolatry of Interest Rates, Part II: Financial Heresy and Potential Utility in an ERP Framework" by James Montier and Ben Inker (Aug. 11, 2015) How GMO incorporates its asset-class forecasts into the multi-asset strategies it manages. (11:39-12:37) GMO Benchmark-Free Allocation III GBMFX   The appeal of a "robust" forecast that's meant to help portfolios withstand various potential outcomes. (12:38-14:15) "Our portfolios look a little freakish." Montier explains why GMO is U.S.-stock-phobic and, conversely, why the firm is finding value in alternatives. (14:16-18:04) GMO Benchmark-Free Allocation II Fund's asset allocation  Sir John Templeton: "If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd." Career risk: Where individual investors hold an edge over institutions. (18:05-18:55) "Career Risk Is Likely to Always Dominate Investing" by Jeremy Grantham (Dec. 24, 2014, Finanz and Wirtschaft)  Alternatives Montier defines "alternatives." Different ways of owning standard risks--depression risk, inflation risk, and liquidity. (18:56-21:49) "The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money" by John Maynard Keynes  Montier presents two examples of alternative strategies that GMO employs--merger arbitrage and put-selling--to own standard risks in different ways. (21:50-25:49)  Merger-arbitrage definition   Put-selling definition  "Is This Purgatory, or Is It Hell?" by Ben Inker (GMO Quarterly Letter, 3Q 2014)  "We should size them such that they cannot hurt the overall fund should we get something wrong." How GMO sizes its positions in alternative strategies. (25:50-27:33)  GMO Systematic Global Macro Trust  Alpha, beta, and decay: How GMO assesses an alternative strategy's vulnerability to being arbitraged away. (27:34-29:57) GMO's Bearish U.S. Equity Forecast "How do I get paid for owning this asset?" Key inputs to GMO's U.S. equity forecast--multiple, margin, yield, and growth. (29:58-32:08) "Back to Basics: Six Questions to Consider Before Investing" by Ben Inker (Nov. 8, 2010)  "A behavioral self-defense mechanism." How GMO's approach to forecasting helps to structure its thinking and anchors decision-making. (32:09-34:54) "It's really valuation where we've been most wrong." Where GMO's U.S. equity forecast erred in recent years. (34:55-36:01) "We have to wear that. We have to own it." Montier on steps that GMO has taken to introspect on its forecasting error and how that expresses itself in the way it makes decisions and manages money. (36:02-39:45) Planning Amid a Dearth of Value "A reach for yield in any way, shape, or form." Explaining the dearth of value. (39:46-41:43) "The Deep Causes of Secular Stagnation and the Rise of Populism" by James Montier and Philip Pilkington (March 22, 2017)  "We have always been pretty bad at (forecasting), and it's unlikely we're going to get a lot better." (41:44-44:37) How should investors and advisors forecast asset-class returns and plan for the future? (44:38-47:25) "Investing for Retirement: The Defined Contribution Challenge" by Ben Inker and Martin Tarlie (April 5, 2014) Capital Allocation Montier on the folly of firms borrowing to repurchase shares: "The more stable the environment, the easier it is to take on leverage, but the greater the danger that taking leverage creates further down the line when you get some random shock." (47:26-50:49) "The Late Cycle Lament: The Dual Economy, Minsky Moments, and Other Concerns" by James Montier (Dec. 17, 2018)   "The Financial Instability Hypothesis" by Hyman P. Minsky (May 1992; The Jerome Levy Economics Institute of Bard College) 

I 14. afsnit af Ophelia Invest Talks er emnet børspsykologi. Derfor har Sarah Ophelia Møss inviteret Jens Balle, erfaren finansmand, foredragsholder samt forfatter til bogen "hulemænd i habitter" i studiet. Jens Balle har arbejdet med investering i over 30 år og har i den forbindelse indgående studeret de psykologiske teorier på feltet. Sarah spørger blandt andet Jens om, hvad børspsykologi er for noget, hvordan den konkret udspiller sig, hvad man skal være opmærksom på for at undgå at gå i fælderne, samt hvilken betydning børspsykologi reelt har for private investorer. Formidlet af Sarah Ophelia Møss, ejer af Ophelia Invest og Forlaget PengePlanlagt, optaget og redigeret af Ophelia Invest og Forlaget PengeNyttige links:Bogen “Hulemænd i Habitter” af Jens Balle (2016): https://hulemaendihabitter.dk/ (Brug koden “ophelia” og få 50 kr. i rabat på både bog og e-bog til og med d. 12. maj 2019)Jens Balles hjemmeside: https://www.jens-balle.dk/ Filmen “The Big Short” af Adam McKay (2015): https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1596363/ Bogen “The Little Book of Behavioral Investing” af James Montier (2010): https://www.saxo.com/dk/the-little-book-of-behavioral-investing_james-montier_hardback_9780470686027Bogen “The Undoing Project” af Michael Lewis (2016): https://www.saxo.com/dk/the-undoing-project_michael-lewis_paperback_9780141983042?gclid=Cj0KCQjw2IrmBRCJARIsAJZDdxDV8SSiJlsQVKrv-NUgVbZCZiuALChDv3-1hSLCrc1B3Sjv01TmAdkaAiHgEALw_wcB Teoretikere nævnt: Daniel Kahneman, Richard Thaler & Amos Tversky. Udover denne podcast kan du følge aktiviteterne i Ophelia Invest her:Website: https://www.opheliainvest.dk/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Ophelia-Invest-1628462130535328/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYYl2kpdCWMOUxQRNxF9-oQInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/opheliainvest/Investor community for nye(re) investorer, Aktieklubben Danmark: https://www.facebook.com/groups/540668596359572/Investor community for kvinder, Kvindelogen Investeret: https://www.facebook.com/groups/2395448087138448/

Adam Butler is Chief Investment Officer of ReSolve Asset Management. Adam is an author of the book Adaptive Asset Allocation: Dynamic Global Portfolios to Profit in Good Times and Bad and contributed to the best investment writing volumes one and two, and he is ranked in the top one percent of authors by papers downloaded on SSRN. Adam also holds a CFA and CAIA charters. In this episode, we will hear Adam's ironic realization he got from his worst investment experience - that you can be right for a very long time before you are wrong. His jarring investment experience affected his confidence and made him doubt his expertise and the value that he could do for his clients. Learn how he regained his confidence and bounced back into the investment game armed with the takeaways he got from this worst investment ever.    “The absolute number one fundamental takeaway I would like to share is that diversification is the best protection against  ignorance.” -Adam Butler     What do you want to hear from the My Worst Investment Ever Podcast? Tell us here!   Resources:  My Worst Investment Ever Book myworstinvestmentever.com Adaptive Asset Allocation: Dynamic Global Portfolios to Profit in Good Times and Bad by Adam Butler The Folly of Forecasting: Ignore all Economists, Strategists, & Analysts by James Montier   Topics Covered: 00:29 – Andrew telling us all about Adam Butler's career background and what he does at the moment 03:07 – Adam sharing  the whole story of his worst investment ever 07:06 – How that failed investment kept him rudderless for months and why he still held on for the longterm reason 08:10 – Lessons learned from his failed investment and narration of Dr. Tetlock's work on the accuracy of forecasts 11:18 – Andrew sharing his own story of a study he made himself about forecast accuracy 12:36 – Adam discussing the books of James Montier about behavioral investing and the folly of forecasting and expounding more on Dr. Philip Tetlock's studies about forecasts 19:17 – Adam on what his views are on researching thoroughly about a particular subject about what happened to his failed investments 22:02 – The concept of diversification 24:14 – The idea of randomness and the awareness of randomness   Main Takeaways: Lesson 1: "One of the most disruptive and ironic things about investing is that you can be right for a very, very long time before you are catastrophically wrong.” – Adam Butler Lesson 2: "It was a shocking and jarring experience, and I came out of it doubting my expertise in the value that I could produce for clients in this business. And as a result of that, I became receptive. I was at a state where I was receptive to alternative ways to think about the problem.” – Adam Butler Lesson 3: "Some other more concerning results, experts that were cited most frequently in media or papers are less well calibrated than those who toil in obscurity.” – Adam Butler Lesson 4:"One of the most important points being that the more you investigate, the more you invest your time and energy and effort into gaining a better understanding of the thesis, the more you want that thesis to play out, and therefore the more you're likely to seek confirmation or confirmatory data and the less likely you are to absorb or internalize disconfirmatory data..” – Adam Butler Lesson 5: "And I think that one of the things that I take away from this is that we have to be careful because sometimes just the longer that we research a particular area or thesis, it can, we can become more convinced, not because the evidence is any more or less powerful, but because we become more and  more familiar with the thesis.” – Adam Butler Lesson 6: “So I think one of the things that I would like to take away myself and for the listeners is that just knowing a subject more deeply and more deeply and more deeply does not mean that you're going to be able to correctly and accurately predict it.” – Andrew Stotz Lesson 7: ”And so I think the lesson that I take away from that is it's great to have your supercycle understand it very well, but know that other countervailing forces can go against it at times.” – Andrew Stotz   You can also check out Andrew’s books How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market My Worst Investment Ever 9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid Them Transform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 Points   Connect with Adam Butler: LinkedIn Twitter Facebook   Connect with Andrew Stotz: astotz.com Linkedin Facebook Instagram Twitter Youtube My Worst Investment Ever Podcast

Episode 108 has a radio show format. In this one, we cover some of Meb’s Tweets of the Week and various write-in questions. After giving us the overview of his upcoming travel, Meb shares his thoughts on our recent episode with James Montier. It evolves into a conversation about the importance of “process” in investing. Next, we talk about a Tweet from Meb which evaluated what matters more – your savings rate or your rate of return. As you might guess, in the early years, savings trumps, but for longer investment horizons, rate of return is far more influential. It’s not long before we jump into listener questions. Some that you’ll hear Meb address include: What is the best way to include commodities in a portfolio? Specifically, is it better to have an ETF containing futures contracts or an ETF containing commodities equities? Obviously historical returns from bonds, especially the last 40 years, will not be repeated in the future. How will you position yourself personally – not Trinity, but personally – for the bond portion of your portfolio? What are some viable simple options for individual investors besides having a globally diversified bond portfolio? Or is global diversification the answer? Is the global risk somehow less risky than a U.S. bond allocation? Star Capital studies and your book show that ten year returns of low CAPE ratio countries are impressive. But it doesn’t tell if those returns occurs gradually, or if the path to this performance is just noise and cannot be predicted. If the path is noise, it would make sense to buy a cheap country ETF and wait at least 7-10 years. But your strategy rebalances every year. Why not hold longer to 7-10 years in total? I recently read that 88% of companies that were in the S&P 500 during the 1950’s are no longer in business. If every company is eventually heading towards zero, why are so few people able to make money on the short side? Shouldn’t the ideal portfolio be long the global market portfolio, with tilts to value and momentum, and short specific individual equities? I’ve looked at you Trinity Portfolios and noticed an allocation of 0.88% to a security. Why? Isn’t the impact neglectable? Do you suggest someone get a second opinion on their financial plan much as someone would get a second opinion for major surgery? There’s plenty more in this episode including data mining, trend following time-frames, and what Meb’s thoughts are on ramping up equity exposure in a portfolio to offset the effects of living longer. All this and more in Episode 108.

In Episode 107 we welcome the great James Montier. The chat starts on the topic of James’ questionable sartorial choices. He tells us he’s “always been a fan of dressing badly.” But the guys quickly jump in with Meb noting how James has generally been seeing the world as expensive over the last few years. Has anything changed today? James tells us no; by in large, we’re still trapped in this world where, frankly, you’re reduced to this game of “picking the tallest dwarf.” In general, every asset is expensive compared to normal. He summarizes, telling us “there really is a serious challenge to try to put together an investment portfolio that’s going to generate half-decent returns on a forward-looking basis.” Meb digs into, focusing on James’ framework for thinking about valuation, specifically, as a process. James starts from accounting identities. There are essentially four ways you get paid for owning an equity: a change in valuation, a change in profitability, some growth, and some yield.  James fleshes out the details for us, discussing time-horizons of these identities. One of the takeaways is that we’re looking at pretty miserable returns for U.S. equities. James notes that we now have the second highest CAPE reading ever. Or you could look at the median price of the average stock – the price-to-sales ratio has never been higher. Overall, the point is to look at many valuation metrics and triangulate, so to speak. When you do, they’re all pretty much saying the same thing. James finishes by telling us that from his perspective, U.S. equities appear obscenely expensive.  Meb takes the counter position, asking if there’s any good argument for this elevated market. Is there any explanation that would justify the high values and continued investment? James spends much time performing this exact exercise, looking for holes. He tells us that most people point toward “low interest rates” as a reason why this valuation is justified. But James takes issue with this. From a dividend discount model perspective, James doesn’t think the discount rate and the growth rate are independent. He suggests growth will be lower along with lower rates. He goes on to discuss various permutations of PE and other models, noting that there’s no historical relationship between the Shiller PE and interest rates. Meb comments how so many famous investors echo “low rates allow valuations to be high.” But this wasn’t the case in Japan. Meb then steers the conversation toward advisors who agree that U.S. stocks are expensive yet remain invested. Why? What follows is a great discussion about what James calls the “Cynical Bubble.” People know they shouldn’t be investing because U.S. stocks are expensive, but investors feel they must invest. If you believe you can stay in this market and sell out before it turns, you’re playing the greater fool game. James tells us about a game involving expectations – it’s a fun part of the show you’ll want to listen to, with the takeaway being how hard it is to be one step ahead of everyone else. The conversation bounces around a bit before Meb steers it toward how we respond to this challenging market. What’s the answer? James tells us there are really four options, yet not all have equal merit: 1) Concentrate. In essence, you own the market about which you’re most optimistic. For him, that would be emerging market value stocks. Of course, buying and holding here will be hard to do. 2) Use leverage. Just lever up the portfolio to reach your target return. The problem here is this is incompatible with a valuation-based approach. Using leverage implies you know something about the path that the asset will take back to fair value – yet it may not go that route. You may end up needing very deep pockets – perhaps deeper than you have. 3) Seek alternatives like private equity and private debt. The problem here is most are not genuinely alternative. They’re not uncorrelated sources of return. James tell us that alternatives are actually just different ways of owning standard risk. 4) The last option is James’ preferred choice. Quoting Winnie the Pooh: “Never underestimate the power of doing nothing.” Next, Meb brings up “process” as James has written much about it. James tells us that process is key. Professional athletes don’t focus on winning – they focus on process, which is the only thing they can control. This is a great part of the interview which delves into process details, behavioral biases, how to challenge your own views, and far more. James concludes saying “Process is vitally important because it’s the one thing an investor can control, and really help them admit that their own worst enemy might be themselves.” There’s plenty more in this great episode: James’s answer to whether we’re in a bubble, and if so, what type… market myths that people get wrong involving government debt… and of course, James’ most memorable trade. This one was a loser that got halved…then halved again…then again…then again… How did James get it so wrong? Find out in Episode 107.

Episode 53 is another “radio show” format. This means we tackle a handful of topics from Meb’s blog and tweets. TOPIC 1 – VALUATIONS 3 DIFFERENT TAKES ON CURRENT VALUE PICTURE: Meb’s recent blog post “A Bar Too High” indicated that for stocks to meet expectations over next 10 years, valuations must rise to highest they’ve ever been in history. With a current CAPE ratio of 29, that means the stock market multiple needs to INCREASE to all-time 1999 bubble highs to meet investor expectations. He thinks tepid growth is more realistic. On the other hand, James Montier, member of the asset allocation team at the Boston-based asset manager GMO, is convinced that the US stock market is in bubble territory. However, European equities aren’t particularly cheap, either. Only emerging markets value-stocks appear vaguely attractive to him. Investors should be patient and hold a lot of cash in their portfolios in order to be able to buy when markets are correcting. What would make the US equity market attractive again – how much would it have to correct? To get back to our sense of fair value tomorrow, it would have to fall by more than 50%. Then we would be on average valuation, which again we estimate based on profitability going back to normal. A third option from a reader question: “Lately there seems to be a lot of talk about CAPE measure not being as meaningful as many seem to think that it is because the very low yields on bonds and full pricing of bonds are basically changing the overall risk adjusted returns landscape. I think the point people are making is that stocks are fairly priced for current overall market conditions, despite many indicators which suggest that prices are historically high.” Three viewpoints – how does Meb see them all? You’ll hear his take. TOPIC 2 – INVEST IN SINGLE STOCKS AT YOUR PERIL A new study by finance professor Hendrik Bessembinder, called “Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?” found that while investing in the overall stock market makes sense, individual stocks resemble lottery tickets: A very small percentage of winning stocks have done splendidly, but when gains and losses are tallied up over their lifetimes, most stocks haven’t earned any money at all. What’s more, 58 percent of individual stocks since 1926 have failed to outperform one-month Treasury bills over their lifetimes. Professor Bessembinder found that a mere 4 percent of the stocks in the entire market — headed by Exxon Mobil and followed by Apple, General Electric, Microsoft and IBM — accounted for all of the net market returns from 1926 through 2015. By contrast, the most common single result for an individual stock over that period was a return of nearly negative 100 percent — almost a total loss. Given all this, what reason is there for the average retail investor to be in specific equities instead of broader sector and index ETFs? TOPIC 3 – VOLATILITY We'll post a chart about our current low volatility – actual U.S. stock market volatility going to back 1928 has only been lower about 3% of trading days. How does Meb interpret this – do these low readings mean a reversion is likely? Or is it the opposite – more of a trend approach where objects in motion tend to stay in motion? Also, how would an investor act upon this using a tail-risk hedging strategy involving puts? There’s plenty more and a handful of rabbit holes in this radio show episode, including investor sentiment, the name of Meb’s new child, how to avoid value traps, and yes, as the title suggests, the cheapest countries in the market today. What are they? Find out in Episode 53.

David Stevenson, the FT's Adventurous Investor, asks City analysts James Montier, Albert Edwards and Tim Bond about the best strategies for long-term shareholders See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.