The AAP Podcast

  On this episode of TheStreet Pro Podcast, Chris Versace sits down with Street Pro contributor Ed Ponsi, who is also the managing director of Barchetta Capital Management, and the president of FXEducator. The conversation starts with the beginning of Ed's investing career and his eventual move into equity trading. The two differentiate between investing and trading, using GameStop (GME) as an example. Ed also uses GameStop shares to explain his trading game plan for the shares, using it as an example of why risk management is imperative. The two also discuss expectations and potential outcomes for tomorrow's Fed meeting, and Ed shares the one thing that folks need to remember when examining charts. We close out the conversation with Ed sharing some of the famous rock musicians that he and his guitar have jammed with.

  On this edition of TheStreet Pro Podcast, Chris Versace is joined by the person responsible for the technical look at the Portfolio and the market, Bob Lang. Their conversation starts with the April Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index reports but then morphs into a discussion of market breadth and why the S&P 500 could reach 5,500-5,600 in the coming weeks. Bob explains how he looks at market breadth as well as shares a few of the indicators, like the McClellan Oscillator, that he closely watches. The two tackle the Wall Street saying “Sell in May and Go Away”, discussing why that could be different this year. We also get Bob's answers to some member questions plucked from the Forum.

On this episode, Ed Kovalik, Chairman and CEO, of Prairie Operating Co (PROP) returns to TheStreet Pro Podcast. The conversation with Chris Versace kicks off with an update on Prairie over the last few months, including its pending acquisition of Nickel Road Operating (NRO) which will put the company on the path to having 30 wells in operation by the end of 2024 and another 45 exiting 2025. Ed also shares more on Prairie's medium to longer-term operating plan, including how the company intends to eventually reward shareholders, and why its lack of balance sheet leverage gives it an edge. Ed also discusses the long-term demand opportunity with fossil fuels because of growing power demands due to AI, data centers, EV and EV charging, and other factors.  

On this edition of TheStreet Pro Podcast, Chris Versace is joined by Lindsey Bell, Chief Strategist at 248 Ventures. The two start off reminiscing about Lindsey interviewing Chris several years ago when she was at TheStreet, and after sharing her journey to 248 Ventures, the conversation pivots to one about the economy and why Lindsey thinks a Goldilocks economy is emerging. The jobs market and its implications are discussed as well as the housing and manufacturing markets with Lindsey explaining why she is interested in the materials sector. The two agree the upcoming earnings market is likely to be volatile, but as investors periods like that bring opportunity with them.

On this week's TheStreet Pro Podcast, Chris Versace is joined by Cole Smead, CEO and portfolio manager at Smead Capital Management based in Phoenix, Arizona. Ahead of the March CPI report, the conversation starts with the two discussing their expectations for that report, what it means for Fed policy, and the Fed's role as a cheerleader for the economy. Cole raises the issue of structural changes in the economy, including the shift in fixed business investment, and why he thinks it means the economy can make do with a higher natural interest rate. The conversation shifts to AI and the CHIPs Act, with Cole sharing why he is wary of diminishing marginal returns for the tech industry. The two discuss how UniCredit (UNCFF) came to be one of the largest holdings at Smead Capital Management and why the team likes Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) and Credit Acceptance Corp. (CACC). Other sectors discussed include Energy and Financials, with Cole sharing he sees 30% fewer banks in the coming years. The two also touch on Cole's co-hosting duties for the “A Book With Legs” podcast. Note: There was a modest technical glitch at the 27-minute mark in the conversation.

On this edition of TheStreet Pro Podcast, Chris Versace is joined by Mr. Morning Recon himself, Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle. Out of the gate, the two talk about the current market setup, why Sarge is incrementally bullish on the economy, and the reason he watches Gross Disposable Income as much as GDP. We discuss what levels Sarge is keenly focused on with the Nasdaq Composite as it potentially breaks its lower channel support level. From there Chris and Sarge touch on a few Portfolio holdings and run through Sarge's thinking on GE Aerospace (GE), Boeing (BA), and Palantir (PLTR), and how to use a GTC scale order.

On this edition of TheStreet Pro Podcast, Chris Versace is joined by Helene Meisler for a technical look at the market. The two discuss the channel Helene sees in the S&P 500 and she explains why she is carefully watching the upward climb in that channel as well as the market's overbought nature. As she shares, uptrend lines are made to be broken, and while it may not be in the very near term, she explains why she is on high alert. The conversation morphs into one about the S&P 500's performance compared to the Nasdaq, why investors should be mindful of what Helene calls “spike highs” in stocks, and what to watch to determine if a stock may power ahead of it. Helene also runs through the sentiment indicators she is watching and discusses why one could be flashing yellow lights in the not-too-distant future. All that plus an interesting and unexpected story about the bond market and Good Friday.

Joining portfolio manager Chris Versace on this edition of TheStreet Pro Podcast is Peter Jackson, CFO of Builders FirstSource (BLDR). The conversation starts with some thoughts on the domestic housing market, one that accounts for more than 80% of Builder's mix of business and turns quickly to the single-family housing market. That economic engine drives roughly 70% of Builder's business and the company sees it rising mid-single digits. The conversation quickly turns to the expanding and higher margin Value Add business and how that ties into the company's digital strategy, one that aims to reduce pain points for homebuilders ranging from large public companies to smaller, regional players and growing dollar share for Builder. Folks looking for more information on Builders FirstSource may want to visit the company's Investor Relations website and its latest investor presentation.  

Carley Garner joins Chris Versace on the latest AAP Podcast and the conversation begins with a discussion of the equity markets. Both agree a pullback would be a positive for the market and investors, with Carley explaining why she watches the Nasdaq 100 futures and Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) levels. After a quick chat about Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL), Carley shares the Nasdaq 100 level she is watching closely and where we could see a healthy market correction put the S&P 500. The conversation shifts to key commodities including the trifecta that is ag commodities (corn, wheat, soybeans), cocoa, coffee, oil, and natural gas. In that discussion, Carley reminds us about the boom-and-bust cycle of commodities and shares an upbeat outlook for natural gas and oil but warns the euphoric prices for one of those commodities could be very different in the coming quarters. The podcast closes out with Carly sharing some of her favorite must-dos for folks visiting Las Vegas and shares a restaurant favored by locals that you probably won't hear about if you're only on the Vegas strip. More from Carley Garner can be found here, and be sure to follow her on X at @CarleyGarner   Other recent AAP Podcasts include Market Strength, Fed Predictions and the Savannah Bananas With Bob Lang Breaking Down the Pre-IPO and IPO Markets with EquityZen's Phil Haslett The Hubbub on AI With Zapata's Christopher Savoie

On this AAP Podcast episode, Chris Versace catches up with the man behind AAP's charts, Bob Lang discussing reasons behind the market's continued strength and why the Vix is “double bullish” for the market. The two discuss Barclays' boosting its S&P 500 target to 5,300 and what it could take to get there. Along the way, Bob and Chris discuss Fed policy and why the Fed's coming update for its Economic Projections could sour some investors. Bob goes on record for when he thinks the Fed will cut rates this year and shares how many rate cuts he sees in 2025. All that and much more including what stock we added to the Bullpen this week, why our Nvidia (NVDA) price target could be conservative, what Costco (COST) and the Savannah Bananas have in common, and how the stock market tends to perform on Leap.

While the AAP Portfolio traffics in publicly traded companies, there is a market for shares in pre-IPO companies. On this episode of the AAP Podcast, Chris Versace chats with Phil Haslett, Chief Strategy Officer and co-founder of EquityZen, an online marketplace for trading pre-IPO employee shares from privately held companies. Phil provides an overview of the pre-IPO market and the conversation morphs to Chris and Phil discussing the current state of the IPO. Phil shares why he is cautiously optimistic about the IPO market but also shares why he thinks we could see a pickup in the M&A market as well. Greater activity in one would be positive for the shares of AAP Portfolio holdings Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bank of America (BAC), but a pickup in both would that much better. The conversation then shifts to talking about AI companies and how that could impact not only the IPO market but the stock market as well. And you'll want to hear an interesting statistic Phil shares at the end of the conversation.

On this episode of the AAP Podcast, Chris Versace sits down with Christopher Savoie, the founder and CEO of Zapata AI. Zapata has been working with AI for industrial applications since 2017.  Savoie shares how his start in molecular biology and working with machine learnings for sequencing gave rise to the formation of Zapata and its use of rich analytics with real-time data and large language models to address customer-specific problems. The conversation turns to generative AI with Savoie explaining how it can drive productivity with diverse examples ranging from engineering and construction to financial products like annuities, and race car driving strategies. Versace and Savoie then discuss why generative AI is the latest in a line of tools like the Internet that will alter how we work, driving productivity along the way. Savoie also shares why GPT 4 may not be the product some are hoping it will be and why multiple, smaller language models working together, not one model “to rule them all”, will help companies address their specific problems and needs.   Recent AAP Podcasts The Fixed-Income Perspective with GenTrust's Jim Besaw Talking the Housing Market, Silver Tsunami and Stocks With Jack Truong

On this edition of the podcast, Chris Versace chats with Jim Besaw, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer at GenTrust, a firm that focuses on investment strategies for high-net-worth individuals, institutions, and family offices. Ahead of the Fed concluding its next policy meeting, we wanted to talk with Jim because of his role at GenTrust but also because of his background in fixed income. That history yields a very different take on the probability of Fed rate cuts than those captured in the CME FedWatch Tool. Jim also shares some of the risks he sees the Fed may look to avoid as they get ready to eventually dial back monetary policy. Chris and Jim discuss some of the signals Jim is watching when it comes to the economy and a potential recession as well as how GenTrust thinks about putting capital to work in the current market environment. That prompts a conversation about the Magnificent Seven, P/E multiples, and AI, with Jim sharing how his firm has used AI since 2015. We close out the conversation by asking Jim how equity investors should approach the fixed-income markets when investing and qualities investors should look for in investment candidates ahead of what looks to be a wave of debt refinancing in the next several quarters.  

On this episode of the AAP Podcast, Chris Versace reconnects with Jack Truong, former CEO of James Hardie and Electrolux North America. While the conversation starts off talking about expectations for Fed rate cuts this year, it quickly turns to the US housing market. Jack explains why he is bullish on the housing market long-term, but he sees several headwinds that could restrain it over the coming quarters. As the Silver Tsunami trades down and Airbnb (ABNB) speculators throw in the towel, he sees Millennials entering the housing market. The key isn't interest rate cuts, but in Jack's view lower housing prices. Chris and Jack also talk about factors investors should consider when identifying homebuilding stocks and what drives repair and remodel spending. Jack also shares why he isn't bullish on the shares of Home Depot (HD) or Lowe's (LOW) near-term, and which geopolitical risk he thinks isn't getting the attention it deserves.

As we approach the end of this short first trading week of 2024, we are back with a fresh AAP podcast episode with Chris Versace, who is joined by Bob Lang. The two discuss the fizzle that was the Santa Claus Rally and explain why it's not a major factor in their investment decision-making process. The conversation shifts to the market action this week and the factors both fundamental and technical driving it. Bob shares the technical support levels for the S&P 500 that he's watching, and notes we have a bevy of Fed heads coming that could throw some cold water on market rate cut expectations. Chris reviews this week's data, explaining why it supports the Fed not rushing to cut rates, and how one item adds another reason to be concerned about earnings guidance when the 4Q 2023 earning season gets underway. As the two discuss, that season begins with bank earnings late next week, with results from Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), JPMorgan (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC). We end the conversation talking about the change to the Fed's voting committee, and how that might influence monetary policy compared to last year.

In our last AAP podcast of 2023, Chris Versace is joined by his former Stocks Under $10 partner in crime and author of the Morning Recon at Real Money Pro, Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle. The conversation begins with why Sarge gets up at 3:30 AM ET every morning but quickly gets into the two discussing the market's meteoric rise since late October. Neither thinks the Fed will cut interest rates 6 to 7 times next year but both agree that if it's more than three rate cuts it could be a much bigger issue for investors. Both also express concern over market expectations for the basket of S&P 500 companies to grow their earnings by more than 11% in 2024 compared to 2023. Sarge and Chris also agree the current market melt-up is likely to continue into early 2024, but both are wary about the start of the December quarter earnings season. With that in mind, Sarge points out that the January-February time frame can be a tricky time for the market and a challenging one for investors. That's why we at AAP have used the market's strength and now overbought condition to selectively book some of the big moves in our positions, building our shopping list and continuing to own our market hedging, inverse ETF positions.

Bob Lang joins us on this week's edition of the AAP Podcast as he chats with Chris Versace about the current state of the stock market, sharing why he sees 2023 closing out on a high note with the upcoming Santa Claus Rally. Moving into 2024 the two talk about the upcoming re-jiggering of Fed voting members, what that could mean for Fed policy, and how upcoming data is viewed.  Chris gives a few reasons as to why we're likely to see further progress in the November inflation data, including next week's CPI report, while Bob shares why he saw this week's 3Q 2023 Productivity data as very important. The two discuss the market's expectation for four rate cuts next year and why the market could be getting ahead of itself with that thinking. The two touch on next week's Fed policy meeting and why they will be closely reviewing the Fed's updated economic projections. The conversation then pivots to the holiday shopping season, touching on their boots-on-the-ground observations for Williams Sonoma (WSM), Gap (GPS), Costco (COST), and several other retailers.

Sitting down with AAP's Chris Versace on this podcast episode is Jay Woods, Chief Global Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, CMT Association Board Member, and former NYSE Executive Floor Governor. Chris and Jay have had many conversations about market dynamics and following the market's strong November move, we're sharing their latest back-and-forth. While Chris is a longer-term investor that blends fundamentals and thematics, Jay's time horizon spans two to three months and as he shares, his focus is on price action. Different approaches but that makes for good conversations about the market and stocks. During the conversation, Jay shares why the market rally has been a textbook example, why he sees the market strength continuing into 2024, and why he's watching small-cap stocks as we start the new year. He also shares how he starts his top-down approach to looking at the market, and his prediction for which company is likely to see its shares ejected from the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Podcast #XX: The Lowdown on AI with Toggle.AI   Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been a big market driver, which is why Chris Versace sat down with RJ Assaly, Chief Product Officer at Toggle.AI, a Fintech platform that uses AI to analyze “billions of data points” to help institutional and individual investors with insights, not noise. Amid the AI hype and hopium that generated over the last several months, Assaly confirms we are only in the early innings of AI, where the technology primarily serves as a productivity driver. In the case of Toggle, that means helping investors cut through haystacks of data to find the needles they are looking for. The two discuss the significance of Generative AI and how that changed AI's use case as well as how the interlinking of systems can drive even greater productivity. Versace and Assaly also touch on potential cyber-related issues as well as why it's important to be aware of data permissions with each AI platform.

In this edition of the AAP Podcast, Chris Versace sits down with Yerbaé Beverage (YERBF) CEO Todd Gibson, who, having sold multiple beverage businesses to the likes of Coca-Cola (KO) and PepsiCo (PEP), is no stranger to the global beverage business. Todd explains why Yerbaé is focused on healthy and natural ingredients for its products resulting in a very different offering compared to those from Monster Beverage (MNSTR) and Celsius Fitness Drinks (CELH). Todd also discusses Yerbae's current distribution footprint and where it's going as well as why the company prunes its beverage portfolio every year to make room for new offerings. The two also talk about Yerbae's definition of clean products, the company's five pillars, and how it also develops its new flavors. Regarding our position in PepsiCo, Todd shares inflation pressure in the beverage industry continues to level off with notable improvement in prices for cans and other raw materials and freight costs. That suggests we could see some additional margin leverage at PepsiCo during the strongest quarter of the year for its beverage and snacking business.

Smarts editor Todd Campbell joins AAP's Chris Versace on this week's podcast and as you'll hear Todd is coming in rather feisty. Hot on the heels of Fed Chair Powell's appearance at the Economic Club of New York, Todd shares his view that there is simply too much negativity in the market and if you look carefully enough, some green shoots may be emerging. While Chris doesn't dismiss Todd's argument, he shares he will continue to position the AAP portfolio based on the evolving data landscape, particularly for Fed policy. As he points out, while many are focused on whether the Fed will stop hiking rates, when the Fed starts to signal it is ready to begin cutting rates is as important. To that Todd shared he doesn't see a rate cut coming until this time next year, which is four months later than the market now expects. In defending his rationale, he points out the market has consistently missed the market on calling the moves in Fed policy so far this year. The conversation continues with thoughts on the 2023 holiday shopping season, Google (GOOGL), and the current earnings season.

We are back with a new AAP Podcast with lead portfolio manager Chris Versace joined by Bob Lang. It's been a bit since our last podcast with Helene Meisler, and some is catching up to do, but as that is done the conversation quickly shifts gears to the market, the Fed, and the data driving it all. Bob comes out swinging, aiming the Fed's updated economic projections for being too conservative, especially given the economic data that led the Atlanta Fed's GDP Model to up its outlook for the September quarter. That gives way to discussing inflation and wage pressures, something the team is watching closely, as well as the hotter-than-expected September Producer Price Index. The two discuss their concern the market may be too complacent when it comes to the aggregate data of late. It may give rise to yet another market re-think on what the Fed needs to do, and this could come in two different forms. The conversation ends by discussing market seasonality, which Bob sees as being favorable between mid-October and the Thanksgiving holidays, and the September quarter earnings. While discussing recently revised guidance from airline stocks, Levi Strauss (LEVI), and disappointing quarterly results from LVMH Moet Hennessey Louis Vuitton (LVMHF), we also explain why, as an investor, it's important to know what you own.

On this edition of the AAP Podcast, Chris Versace is joined by AAP team member and the brains behind TheStreet's Top Stocks newsletter, Helene Meisler.  The conversation spans how Helene got started on Wall Street and shifts to how she examines charts, including why she prefers to do so by hand. Helene also shares why she sees an extended period of “chop” ahead for the market, the oscillators she uses to gauge the markets, and how that factors into being a swing trader. Companies mentioned during the conversation include ChargePoint (CHPT), Caterpillar (CAT), Meta Platforms (META), Colgate (CL), Bank of American (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Ford Motor (F), UPS (UPS), several retailers and utilities as well. Closing out the conversation, Helene shares a piece of whip-smart advice that both investors and traders will want to hear.

On this week's AAP Podcast, Chris Versace is joined by Todd Campbell, editor of TheStreet's Smarts. Out of the gate, the two talk about inflation and the August Consumer Price Index report, both agreeing September and October data will now be a focal point for the market and investors. Todd shares his thoughts on potential seasonality in oil, while Chris weighs in on wages following the Teamsters-UPS (UPS) contract and similar negotiations between the UAW and the Detroit Three as well as pilots and airlines. The conversation shifts to potential risks for consumer spending power as student debt repayments return in October. Todd shares concerns about the holiday shopping season, and Chris discusses his for travel and restaurant spending. The two wind up sharing their thoughts on Apple's (AAPL) iPhone event offering who they think will benefit the most. If you listen carefully, you'll learn who next week's guest will be on the podcast, and trust us, it's one you aren't going to want to miss.

AAP lead portfolio manager Chris Versace discusses the state of the oil market with Edward Kovalik Chairman and CEO of Prairie Operating Co. (CRKR). Formed in 2023, Prairie has a rather unique business model in that it combines a fast-follower strategy without any leverage on the balance sheet, offering bottom-line profit leverage as Prairie scales its drilling operations. Ed shares his longer-term outlook on the energy market, one that is underpinned by underinvestment in capacity and could lead to a domestic supply crunch in the coming quarters. Arguably, Prairie is a new, built-from-the-ground-up energy company that doesn't have the typical industry baggage and it benefits from Ed's time as a merchant banker focused on the energy market. Investors looking for small-cap energy companies may want to dig further into Prairie Operating Co., starting with its latest investor relations presentation. The company's strategy speaks to the AAP portfolio's position in the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), and while we like the Prairie's flexible business model, the current market cap and trading volume will keep us on the sidelines. As the company moves from permitting to drilling later this year and into 2024, we'll look to revisit it.

On this week's AAP podcast, we delve into the quick-service restaurant business with Potbelly (PBPB) CEO Bob Wright. No stranger to the restaurant industry given his time at Wendy's (WEN), Charley's Philly Steaks, Checker's Drive-In Restaurants, and Domino's Pizza (DPZ), Wright entered Potbelly as President and CEO during a challenging time for the company in 2020. Flash forward to today and Potbelly is coming off reporting positive same-store comps for nine consecutive quarters, including +12.9% for its June quarter. During the conversation with AAP's Chris Versace, the two discuss why Wright came to Potbelly, steps taken to turn the company around, how, and why franchising provides an avenue for growth, food inflation, pricing, and much more. For those that have yet to sample the Potbelly menu, be sure to listen to several of Wright's callouts, including the cookies and what he keeps in his refrigerator at home. From an AAP portfolio perspective, Potbelly's franchising strategy follows in the footsteps of McDonald's (MCD) while its focus on fresh food is similar to Chipotle (CMG). We like the steps enacted by Wright and the team, especially the profitable and asset-lite model better known as franchising. The average daily trading volume and market cap for PBPB shares make them a tasty consideration for investors looking for small-cap stocks.

On this week's AAP Podcast, Chris Versace is joined by David Holeman, CEO of Whitestone REIT (WSR), which focuses on open-air retail centers, primarily in the US Sunbelt. The conversation is an excellent primer for listeners about the REIT sector. It includes how REIT management thinks about their portfolio and tenant composition over time, the data they examine when choosing a location, and how they stagger their rental agreements.   Our takeaway from the conversation is that while Whitestone REIT may be a smaller REIT by size, its monthly dividend and focus on meeting the needs of its surrounding communities makes it a standout. From an AAP portfolio perspective, while we like the Whitestone story, the market cap and average trading volume are simply too small for us to consider, but folks that like small-cap, income-generating plays may want to dig further.   During the conversation with Versace, Holeman shares that after a few economic cycles during his time at Whitestone, he and the management team look to remain nimble while focusing on evolving consumer needs in and around Whitestone's centers. This meant pivoting toward consumer services as e-commerce changed the landscape for traditional retailers. The conversation touches on two pillars of growth for Whitestone including continued expansion and the cycling of rental agreements that tend to include rate increases. Holeman shares the existing team could grow to more than 100 centers vs. the 56 it had exiting the recent June quarter. Given the interest rate environment, the expansion strategy is likely to favor buying and rehabbing existing centers in the near term.

On this week's AAP Podcast, Chris Versace is joined by AAP team member Bob Lang and the two tackle the Fitch downgrade this week for the US's credit rating that roiled stocks just as we enter a seasonally weak time for the market. Bob puts some context around Fitch's downgrade comparing it to the last rating downgrade in 2011. With the S&P 500 breaking its 20-day moving average, the next level of support to watch is the 50-day moving average, which comes in near 4,350 for the S&P 500. Bob also tells listeners to watch for the market becoming oversold, something that has him watching the market oscillators. The conversation between the two then pivots to the June quarter earnings season, which so far has gone pretty well. However, as yet we haven't seen any material upward revisions for S&P 500 EPS in the back half of 2023 or 2024. Chris shares why he thinks this is important to gauge how much steam is left in the market, and by the end of this week, ~80% of the S&P 500 basket will have reported. Chris and Bob round out the conversation by discussing the recent rise in the 10-year Treasury yield back above 4%, and if that turns out to be a sustained move how it could be a headwind for stocks.  The end discussing the Teamsters-UPS (UPS) contract and what it could mean for Ford (F), General Motors (GM), and Stellantis (STLA) just as the UAW shares it is looking for double-digit pay rises and defined-benefit pensions for all workers. 

On the abbreviated AAP podcast episode, lead AAP portfolio manager Chris Versace shares his reaction to the Fed's June policy statement that lifted the fed funds rate by another 25 basis points and comments on Fed Chair Powell's press conference. As he and the AAP team suspected, Powell and the Fed trotted out the “data dependent” line, calling out there are a number of data points in the coming eight weeks that will influence the next policy decision. We also share the view that while the market is currently focused on when the Fed may stop hiking rates, we expect it will eventually turn its focus to when the Fed may deliver the first rate cut. Per Powell's comment today, monetary policy will remain in restrictive territory for some time. In our view, it will be the data that tells us when the rate hiking cycle is over and when we could see that first rate cut. As we digest the data coming in the weeks and months ahead, we'll continue to update our view for monetary policy as well as the economy, earnings, and other relevant inputs that shape our thoughts for the AAP portfolio.

On this edition of the AAP Podcast, Chris Versace is joined by Dr. Jack Truong, former CEO of building products company James Hardie Industries (JHX), the North American CEO of appliance company Electrolux and a top C-Suite executive with 3M (MMM). We cover an array of topics with Jack sharing his insights on inflation, debt levels for the US and consumers, and why he sees a soft landing for the US economy.  The conversation continues with why he is bullish on infrastructure spending for nonresidential construction and the reshoring of chip capacity. Jack also explains why appliances in our kitchens could be fodder for cyber-attacks, something that prompted the Biden administration to introduce a cybersecurity labeling program. From there we dig deep into the housing market, one that Jack views the new construction segment as having considerable legs ahead of it. We close out the conversation with Jack sharing his view on what to look for in a management team and some questions investors should ask them.

On this week's episode of the AAP Podcast, AAP's Chris Versace and Smarts editor Todd Campbell review the better-than-expected June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report but share why the road to the Fed's 2% target may not be as immediate as some are hoping. Todd breaks down the upcoming special rebalance for the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), sharing the ins and outs as well as why investors shouldn't attempt to game the rebalancing action. The two then pivot to upcoming bank earnings from JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup (C), discussing the recent upward move in big bank EPS expectations and some of the reasons behind that. They also discuss what they will be focused on in those reports, and what signals they will be watching for both the economy and the consumer. Chris and Todd also share why they have some reservations about the consumer entering the December quarter, and why in the coming months they will both be watching real wage growth like a hawk.         

On this post-Independence Day edition of the AAP Podcast, Chris Versace is joined by Bob Lang to discuss the Fed's latest policy meeting minutes, the consumer and the housing market, membership business models, and the year-end holiday shopping season. Bob shares that he agrees with AAP team member Carley Garner that we could see the S&P 500 reach 4,500-4,520 if not a tad higher, and that he sees strong technical support at 4,400 and again at 4,350 and 4,335. The two also discuss why Bob is closely watching the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) and why, at least for now, it suggests wide swings in the market are likely to be kept to a minimum. We also talk about signals in the VIX that would point to wider market swings ahead. Bob and Chris discuss Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), and Costco (COST) as well as Coty (COTY) and Morgan Stanley (MS) during their time together as well as which economic data point each of them will be watching in the coming days.   Editor's note: Please be aware a short gap of silence occurs once during the conversation when the signal briefly cuts out.

On this edition of the AAP Podcast, Chris Versace sits down with AAP team member, author, and commodity broker/analyst Carley Garner. Carley has appeared in several Daily Rundowns, sharing her views on the market, but in this conversation, she shares the five items she focuses on when evaluating a position and explains why she dissects each week's Commitments of Traders report to assess the market mood. Chris and Carley also talk about the importance of seasonality when it comes to the market, with Carley pointing out it tends to be something that gets overlooked by many investors. Patience and conviction were also cited as key ingredients when it comes to investing and trading. The conversation touches on the economy, with both seeing a soft landing, and Carley shares where she sees copper and key ag commodities going in the near term as well as what she sees next for the S&P 500.  Listeners looking to learn more about commodities and futures should read Carley's columns at Real Money Pro and check out “A Trader's First Book on Commodities: Everything You Need to Know About Futures and Options Trading Before Placing a Trade.”

On this episode of the AAP Podcast, lead portfolio manager Chris Versace is joined by Alex Ryan, Chairman and CEO of luxury wine company, The Duckhorn Portfolio (NAPA). The conversation starts with Alex tracing back Duckhorn's wine roots in California, which quickly morphs into an overview of the company's labels, product offering, market position, and the luxury wine segment.  Describing The Duckhorn Portfolio as a manufacturing company, agricultural company, and a marketing company rolled into one, Alex explains why it's uniquely positioned vs. other public beverage companies. The conversation also broaches the wine manufacturing process, some helpful tips for wine drinkers, and why The Duckhorn Portfolio is confident it can deliver high single-digit organic top-line growth through 2025 even if a recession rears its head. For those interested in learning more about Duckhorn's business, here is a link to its latest Investor Relations presentation.  

In this episode of the AAP Podcast, portfolio manager Chris Versace chats with John Morris, CEO of Solo Brands (DTC), a lifestyle product company that leverages direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels but is also expanded its partnerships with Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Costco (COST), and others. Solo's brands include Solo Stove, Oru Kayak, Isle, Chubbies, and recently acquired TerraFlame, and while they may seem disjointed Morris explains the rationale behind each one's position in the larger company. Morris also explains Solo isn't a company poised to rest on its laurels given the number of new product introductions coming, ones that target its combined customer base across its portfolio of businesses. We also touch on what Solo is seeing in terms of customer demand, inflation pressures, and how the company plans to deliver margin improvement in the coming quarters. If you want to know more about Solo Brands, you can find its investor relations website here.

On this episode of the AAP Podcast, Chris Versace is joined by Todd Campbell, editor of The Street's Smarts newsletter. The two start their chat catching up on recent events, including the debt ceiling with Todd recapping how the market responded to the last debt ceiling event in 2011. Chris and Todd then shift gears to the yield curve, oil, the consumer, and the likely course of Fed policy. Todd shares how he's adapted his trading strategy in the near term, and Chris discusses a recent move with the Action Alert's Plus portfolio. The conversation winds down with the two discussing AI, including what kinds of companies are poised to benefit and how paying attention to history is likely to be a smart thing.

On this episode of the AAP Podcast, lead portfolio manager Chris Versace welcomes Michael Osanloo, the CEO of fast-casual Chicago street food company Portillo's (PTLO). While not yet a household name, consensus revenue forecasts have the company serving up revenue of $683 million this year, up from $587 million in 2022 and $479 million in 2022 as it continues to expand its footprint and win over diners. Osanloo attributes the success of Portillo's to its craveable yet affordable menu that has an average check per consumer of $10. As he shares, the menu is not only recession-proof it is also veto-proof with items that appeal to vegetarians, vegans, and flexitarians as well as meat eaters. The company recently enacted a 3% price increase, which layered on top of the 3.5% increase taken last year and paired with productivity improvements is shaping up to drive margin improvement as food costs improve. Despite those price increases, Osanloo explains the company is intent on continuing to offer family-friendly prices, something Chris sees as a draw for consumers dealing with rising food prices and other inflationary pressures. Like other restaurants, Portillo's is contending with higher wages, however, Osanloo explains how the management team invests in and leverages its employees, using them to carry the company culture to new locations.

On this episode of the AAP Podcast, portfolio manager Chris Versace is joined by Kace Capital's Kenny Polcari. While the two start off chatting about the bygone days of the NYSE floor, they quickly move into talking about all things stock market-related. Kenny shares his view the economy will likely be in a rolling recession and the Fed could very well lift interest rates yet again at the upcoming June policy meeting. Chris brings us continued strength in the services economy but also notes prospects for further inflation pressure there. Both are watching wage pressures as well as the tight labor market. While the market may rally on a debt ceiling deal, the eventual refocus on the economy, Fed, and other fundamentals are likely to make that rally short-lived according to Kenny. Both shared concerns for “a deal” not “the deal” as well as the debt ceiling conversation bubbling back up during the upcoming presidential election. In terms of stocks, they dished on Bank of America (BAC), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Nvidia (NVDA), and several others. And Kenny agrees with Chris and other AAP team members that AI stocks are out over their skis. Finally, be sure to listen as Kenny discusses what he's making for dinner tonight and it sure sounds tasty!

This week, Chris Versace welcomes AAP team member Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle to the podcast and the two cover a number of topics, including their past collaborative efforts at TheStreet. The conversation gets underway with Sarge's background as a hybrid between fundamentals and technical analysis, and he explains how he leverages those viewpoints. The two then discuss target prices, pivots, and panic points, including when to use them, before moving on to topics that include the Fed, the rangebound stock market, whether a recession is likely, and areas of increasing interest for both of them in the stock market. They cap the conversation with thoughts on Big Tech stocks and why they may or may not be revisiting one or two of them. Along the way, several stocks are discussed, including ones in the defense and banking sectors as well as cybersecurity.

Fed Chair Powell recently completed his May Fed policy press conference that followed the Fed's lifting interest rates by another 25 basis points to 5.00%-5.25%. Joining AAP's Chris Versace to break it down and dig deeper into the message Powell looked to communicate is Street Smarts' Todd Campbell. The two start off discussing Powell's comment the road to 2% inflation isn't like to be smooth and that the Fed is apt to be at this for some time then shift into Powell's comment a rate cut isn't likely in the cards for 2023 based on what he's seeing. While Powell described the Fed will be looking at many data points and the future course of monetary policy will be data dependent, it sure seemed like he is laser-focused on the jobs market. Powell attempted to walk that back some, but Chris and Todd dig into that as well as what's been happening with earnings expectations as we move past the mid-point for the March quarter earnings season. With the market expected to be rangebound, the two discuss what catalysts could break it out to the upside on a sustained basis, and the odds of that happening in the next few months. Todd and Chris also discuss “sell in May and go away” leaning into some data shared by AAP team member Carley Garner. All that and much more in this post-Fed meeting edition of AAP Podcast.

With interest in growing storage needs and the expanding electric vehicle market driving demand for batteries, we spoke with geologist Phil Thomas at Recharge Resources. We chat with Phil on the various end markets that consume lithium, including construction and ceramics, but as will come as little surprise he shares Recharge is preparing for the expected ramp in global EV demand. The why behind that is the expected mismatch between lithium demand and supply. During our conversation, Phil shares the intricacies of lithium mining, and why Recharge opted for the locations it has, a key consideration for mining companies. We also discuss the steps ahead for Recharge, which is a pre-revenue company, a factor that will keep the AAP portfolio on the sidelines at least for now. Folks that want to know more about the lithium market and how its mind, may want to review Recharge's latest investor relations presentation and the forecasts shared for lithium demand.

As we approach the height of the corn planting season, Chris Versace sits down with Sal Gilbertie, CEO of Teucrium ETFs to discuss the levers to watch in the coming months for key ag commodities corn, wheat, and soybeans. Building on his experience trading commodities and overseeing Teucrium's ag commodity ETFs, Sal discusses the ag commodity cycle, sharing why he focuses on the cost of production, global supply, and demand dynamics, and a longer view on global ag commodity stocks. Chris and Sal also touch on what is shaping up to be a rice shortage as well as why the outlook for farmer income and ag equipment continues to be bright.

On this week's AAP Podcast, Chris Versace speaks with Mike Jenkins, CEO of Orion Energy (OESX), and Kathleen Connors, the head of EV charging business Voltrek which was acquired by Orion in October of last year. During the conversation, Mike provides a thorough overview of Orion's core light emitting diode (LED) installation business, touching on why cost savings as well as ESG and carbon footprint concerns are driving that business. Mike also describes the strategic thought process behind acquiring Voltrek when Orion did with Kathleen explaining the tailwinds behind that EV charging business. While headlines focus on public funding that sees the buildout of EV charging in 2024 ramp considerably, Kathleen also discusses how private funding is driving that market today. She also describes the typical build-out for an EV charging project, how Voltrek works with its various partners, including ChargePoint (CHPT), and shares which EV best replicates the combustion engine driving experience.

We are coming at you a day earlier than usual with this week's AAP Podcast so Chris Versace, lead portfolio of TheStreet's Action Alerts Plus, and Todd Campbell, editor of TheStreet Smarts, can prepare you for the March Consumer Price Index report and its implications for the market as well as monetary policy. Chris and Todd discuss not only the consensus forecast of +5.6% year over year for core March CPI but also delve into what the Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcasting model sees ahead for April for both the CPI and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index. The short of it is neither points to meaningful progress on inflation, which as Todd and Chris discuss has a long way to go to the Fed's 2% target. The bottom line is the March CPI report has the potential for the market to begin re-thinking the rate cuts it sees per the CME FedWatch Tool. The two then move to talk about what they will be watching as bank earnings start to roll in and then move into discussing several stock valuation tools they use. From when and how to use the price to earnings (P/E) metric as well as some of its shortcomings to other tools ranging from price to sales, dividend yield, and enterprise value to revenue. You'll also hear why Todd isn't a fan of using EBITDA, as well as what one of his go-to valuation metrics is. Chris and Todd recap some rules of thumb you'll want to factor into your thinking and share why you need to listen to math.

On this week's podcast, AAP's Chris Versace and Street Smart's Todd Campbell waded deep into the sea of March economic data, sharing their thoughts on what it means for the economy and monetary policy. They also discussed recent comments from AAP team member Doug Kass about the rangebound market and ones from Helene Meisler for a potentially challenging time for tech stocks in the very near term. That moved into a conversation about how they are approaching the market between now and the start of the March quarter earnings season. From there, the conversation morphed into a review of Nvidia's (NVDA) strong stock performance as it touted AI, and that led to a discussion on March search engine market share data. What was most interesting in that data was what it showed for Microsoft's (MSFT) AI-enhanced Bing search engine vs. Google's (GOOGL). The two also touched on recent Competition Authority investigations into Meta Platforms (META), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Google as well as Foxconn's (HNHPF) warning for the June quarter. Closing out the podcast both Chris and Todd share what they will be focusing on next week amid the fallout of the March Employment Report, March CPI and PPI data, and the March Retail Sales report. The two also share their go-to Easter candy.

In this episode, Chris Versace welcomes back Street Smarts editor Todd Campbell to the podcast following a stint on vacation and about of pre-season baseball. It's been a bit since Chris and Todd last chatted and they quickly run through a number of things ranging from the Fed, monetary policy, tightening credit prospects, CME FedWatch Tool projections, the economy, the recent bank failures, earnings from Micron (MU), and the upcoming February PCE Price Index data. It's quite a bit of ground to cover but along the way the two touch on key reports to watch, including the next iteration of the Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending, upcoming March PMI data from ISM and S&P Global and next week's March Employment Report. Todd asks Chris how the Action Alerts Plus portfolio adds a new position to the portfolio and build its exposure over time. And Chris asks Todd his thoughts on why 2024 EPS expectations for the S&P 500 are, out the gate, calling for double-digit growth vs. 2023. All that and much more on this, the 29th episode of the AAP Podcast.

On this episode of the AAP Podcast, lead portfolio manager Chris Versace chats with Brian Roth, CEO of solar equipment company Three Sixty Solar. We've had several AAP member questions about solar and that was one of the factors in our chat with Brian. We were also intrigued by how Three Sixty is approaching the solar market from a design and revenue model perspective. But Brian's comments about supply chains and potential revenue bundling really caught our attention and you'll want to hear why Three Sixty is poised to benefit from the EV charging station buildout. As we draw several insights from the Three Sixty conversation, we would note the company is pre-revenue and for this reason, we simply cannot get involved through the AAP portfolio. However, as Brian mentions, Three Sixty is addressing a few pain points we will keep them on our long-term radar screen.

In this week's AAP Podcast, lead portfolio manager Chris Versace is joined by AAP team member Bob Lang to discuss the Fed's March monetary policy statement and comments made during Fed Chair Powell's corresponding press conference. In a prior note to members, we shared our initial reactions to the policy statement and updated economic projections, but as we learned during the presser, the Fed does not see any rate cuts ahead in 2023. As we've been sharing that disrupts the current market narrative depicted in the CME FedWatch Tool, and those comments led the market to turn down.   Moreover, depending on the impact of tighter credit conditions, the Fed could do more than telegraphed in its updated economic projections for the fed funds rate. The tighter credit conditions reflect the fallout from recent bank failures, which as Powell said could act as a rate hike to the fed funds rate. However, because we are still in the early days of those tighter credit conditions, the full impact will take more time to understand. This means the market didn't receive a definitive answer as to when we are likely to reach the terminal level for the fed funds rate. It also means we must continue to watch the labor market and upcoming inflation data. Powell confirmed what we've been saying to you, that recent inflation data was running hotter than expected, and based on the updated economic projections both the core PCE and PCE inflation metrics aren't expected to hit 2.5% until the end of 2024.   We discuss all of that in much greater detail, and Bob runs through the technical levels he's watching for the S&P 500. We also share the two things that surprised us between the March policy statement, Powell's comments, and the updated economic projections.

    In this week's AAP Podcast, Chris Versace is joined by Real Money contributor and Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, Peter Tchir. From the fallout from Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank to discussing the impact of the February CPI report on expectations for the Fed and monetary policy, Chris and Peter cover quite a bit of ground. Peter shares likely next steps as the ripple effect of Silicon Valley Bank is had and parts with some interesting thoughts on what helped contribute to the inflationary environment the Fed is now trying to lick. Chris and Peter also discuss the mixed message the market is giving when it comes to monetary policy later this year, but also why the market should focus on the Fed's other policy tools, not just the fed funds rate. The conversation then pivots toward defense spending and the debt ceiling with Peter explaining why he closely watching to see if China sells weapons to Russia.   Now please sit back and enjoy this timely conversation between Chris Versace and Peter Tchir.    

  Over the last few weeks, there have been quite a few announcements and even more headlines when it comes to artificial intelligence, or “AI” as it is usually referred to. On this week's AAP podcast, we are taking a pause from the usual market-related conversations Chris Versace has been having of late with Todd Campbell, the brains behind the Street's Smarts product to share a recent conversation between Chris and Raj Suri, the CEO of Presto Automation (PRST).   Presto is an AI company focused on addressing labor-related issues for the fast-food industry, one that is contending not only with the tight labor market but also increasing minimum wages across the company. With more fast-food companies, including the AAP Portfolio's Chipotle (CMG), as well as other types of retailers leaning into drive-through service, there is a pain point that needs to be addressed. As Raj explains, one solution is AI, and longer-term he sees more automation taking hold within the fast-food industry. Raj also shares some of the productivity and other metrics that led to Checkers deploying Presto's voice ordering solution as well as the recent win with Jack in the Box's (JACK) Del Taco. We at AAP will want to keep our eyes on PRST and watch for further deployment announcements from the company. For now, however, given our average daily trading volume restrictions and its average daily volume of 65,000 shares, we will have to admire the company's progress from afar. Currently, the company with the lowest average daily trading volume of just over 300,000 shares is Chipotle, but that is an outlier compared to the rest of the portfolio.    

As he gets ready to talk the ins and outs of thematic investing at the College of Charleston's 9th Annual Strategic Investment Symposium, Chris Versace and Smarts editor Todd Campbell discuss the evolving narrative as the stock market wrestles with stickier-than-expected inflation and the potential Fed response.  The two share their thoughts on what this likely means for earnings expectations and when they might bottom out. Todd discusses the significance of what sectors are leading the market, and which one are lagging. Chris shares why he is focused on what Salesforce (CRM) says about the dollar next week and why the February ISM data will be for him next week. And before the two share their predictions for near-term revisions for 2023 S&P 500 earnings expectations, they touch on EV infrastructure spending and why folks shouldn't rule out moves by the likes of BP (BP), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and Shell (SHEL).