Podcasts about march cpi

US equities were sharply lower in Thursday trading, though ended off worst levels. Stocks gave back some of their monster Wednesday rally, a good chunk of which was chalked up to oversold conditions, positioning, and short covering. In macro news, headline March CPI decreased 0.1% month over month, cooler than consensus amid lower energy prices.

S&P Futures are displaying weakness after yesterday's strong rally, the move lower is considered to be as a result of profit taking. While the 90-day tariff pause was a positive catalyst for markets yesterday, there remains a significant amount of uncertainty as to what will occur after the pause period ends. The Trump administrations economic plan remains a key concern for the markets due to the chaotic nature in policy shifts. Then there are the trade relations with China which are fragile at best as the Trump administration increased the Chinese tariffs and appears to be shifting towards an economic decoupling. On the earnings front KMX is trading lower as they missed on earnings expectations. Tomorrow is the start of earnings season with a host of the major backs set to report. On the economic front the March CPI data & the weekly Jobless Claims data is due out before the bell. There is also a significant number of Fed officials speaking today.

Tim Davis and Mark Vitner react to the March CPI print, which came in cooler than expected. Mark notes that because Easter comes so late in April, demand was delayed in March, and expects it to pick up more in the summer. Tim says his fear was “the data was already stale,” as forward-looking projections get harder. However, with energy and housing prices declining, it's a “green light” for the Fed to cut rates.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Dr. Kostas Bakoyannis, Chair of the Committee on the Environment, Climate Change and Energy at the European Committee of the Regions. Kostas has served as a member of the Committee since 2020 and previously held elected roles as Mayor of Athens, Governor of Central Greece, and Mayor of Karpenisi. He brings nearly two decades of public service experience including roles at the Greek Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the European Parliament in Brussels, and the World Bank in Kosovo. We were thrilled to connect with Kostas for an insightful discussion on Europe's energy future, the pressures facing European industry, and how the EU is navigating today's complex geopolitical landscape. In our conversation, Kostas shares his perspective on Europe's environmental and energy policies and the challenge of balancing energy security with energy transition amidst rising geopolitical tensions. We discuss the impact of tariffs and trade relations, Europe's internal challenges regarding energy affordability, regulatory complexity, and bureaucracy, and Greece's more balanced and pragmatic energy policies. We explore the importance of interconnection and regional energy cooperation within Europe, as well as the broader geopolitical and economic implications of efforts to connect energy systems with Cyprus and Israel. Kostas offers insights into how average Greek and EU citizens experience energy and financial pressures, the limitations of EU communication, and the importance of preserving the U.S.-European alliance built after WWII. We examine how different EU countries are pursuing diverse energy mixes and the need for technological neutrality in policymaking. We touch on Europe's evolving strategy on industrial policy and tariffs, the urgency of presenting a united Western front in dealing with China, calls for increased European defense spending, and the seriousness of concurrent economic, national security, and ideological tensions. Kostas highlights Greece's economic transformation, the investment climate, lessons from local governance, the need for more flexible, innovation-friendly regulation within the EU, and more. It was a broad-based discussion and we're thankful to Kostas for sharing his time and unique insights. Mike Bradley opened by discussing that “Trumpatility” is alive and global fear is high! He noted that Trump's reciprocal tariffs are dominating global markets and that broader equity markets could still have additional downside. However, the time for panic was weeks ago when equity market volatility was low, not today, when fear is extremely high. On the broader equity market front, Trump's reciprocal tariffs haven't just affected U.S. equities (S&P 500 down 12% over last 5 trading days) but also global equity markets (down 8-12%) over the same timeframe. Investor fear is historically high with the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) trading at ~55 today and as high as 60 on Monday (3rd highest VIX level of the last 30 years). The S&P 500 opened strongly on Tuesday (up 3.5%) before ending the day down just under 2.0%, which looks to be signaling that investors are “selling the bounce” rather than “buying the dip.” Investors seem inclined to “buy the dip” around the S&P's 200-day moving average of 4,675 (6-7% lower). On bonds, he pointed out that the 10yr bond yield trades at ~4.25%, which is a higher yield than it traded on Liberation Day, as traders sense the Fed could be conflicted between tariff induced price inflation and a tariff induced U.S. recession. March CPI & PPI reports due this week could influence Fed decisions, with a cooler-than-expected inflation reading possibly paving the way for interest rate cuts as early as the May 7th FOMC Meeting. In the oil market, WTI price has plunged ~$14/bbl (to $58/bbl) over the last five trading days and is now trading at Mar '21 price levels. The recent plunge in oil price was due not only to Trump

The Fed met earlier this week and elected to keep interest rates at a 23-year high, in an effort to wrestle inflation closer to its two percent target. Despite this, the April jobs report, which was released today, shows that jobs grew for the 40th consecutive month, and unemployment remains under 4 percent, an historic low, for the 27th straight month. The 12-month inflation rate is 3.5 percent, based on March CPI data. Stocks remain on a tear, but performance is lopsided, with 10 companies driving 85 percent of this years' gains. We cover this and more in our First Friday economic update episode. Enjoy! For more information, visit the show notes at https://affordanything.com/episode502 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending April 15th, 2024... why the latest inflation reports could postpone the Fed's rate-cutting plan, how inflation continues to impact construction costs, and why homeowners are getting sticker shock from property tax bills.   We begin with economic news from this past week that was dominated by two of the latest inflation reports. The Consumer Price Index or CPI came out on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index or PPI came out on Thursday.   Unfortunately for everyone wanting a great inflation report, the March CPI was hotter than expected. It rose .4% in March for an annual rate of 3.5%. That's up from 3.2% last month. That is not what the Fed wants to see as it decides to lower the Federal Funds rate...   ...That's it for today. You can read more about the stories in this episode by following links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. We are also encouraging all of our listeners to sign up for a free RealWealth membership. As a member, you'll get updates on what's new for the housing market and for real estate investors. Our big focus right now is a live event on Saturday May 4th in San Francisco. We'll have six property teams giving presentations on their markets and the kind of rental properties available. We are also hosting a cocktail party in the evening to give people an opportunity to share their real estate investing stories and get to know one another. You can find out more about that at newsforinvestors.com. Just click on Connect and then Live Events. Subscribe to the podcast here.    Thanks for listening! Kathy Fettke   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/cpi-report-for-march-dow-futures-steady-ahead-of-key-inflation-data/card/inflation-rises-sharply-again-in-march-cpi-shows-and-may-raise-doubts-about-fed-rate-cut-Foz2wKLnfXjobHHolAdz   2 - https://www.cnbc.com/2013/02/20/producer-price-index-cnbc-explains.html   3 - https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/hot-inflation-data-pushes-markets-rate-cut-expectations-to-september.html   4 - https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/05/fed-governor-bowman-says-additional-rate-hike-could-be-needed-if-inflation-stays-high.html   5 - https://www.constructiondive.com/news/producer-price-construction-input-march/712981/   6 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-officials-back-cautious-approach-to-further-shrinking-of-its-balance-sheet-minutes-show-4fed157d?mod=federal-reserve   7 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-retreat-again-to-211-000-in-another-sign-of-labor-market-strength-ac68c1cc?mod=economic-report   8 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   9 - https://www.forbes.com/advisor/taxes/property-taxes-surge/   10 - https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/09/why-new-build-homes-can-lead-to-a-property-tax-surprise.html

In this episode of Crossing the Line, Host Greg Heym welcomes special guest Martha Stark to discuss the March CPI report, the recent court of appeals decision, and much more. Filmed at Brown Harris Stevens' Studio 1873, Part of the Mastery of Real Estate (MORE) Network. Subscribe here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/crossing-the-line/id1715709313 Connect with Greg Heym here: https://www.bhsusa.com/about-gregory-heym Brown Harris Stevens is one of the largest privately owned real estate brokerages in the country, with more than 40 offices across four states: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Florida. https://bhsusa.com/ #economy #realestate #theline #gregheym

The S&P's performance after “shock events” shows, unsurprisingly, that the ones that caused no damage to the economy had the least impact on the market, and vice versa. The oil price is steady post Iranian attacks on Israel, suggesting the latter this time.While the Yom Kippur War and Oil Embargo of 1973 strike parallels with today, the global economy is less than half as reliant on oil as it was then. There are many other suppliers apart from the Middle East, and no one is talking about an embargo today. March CPI inflation at 3.5% year/year has caused concerns that inflation is beginning to trend higher again. But the culprits driving it (auto insurance and rents) are likely to come down.This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

March CPI The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report spooked investors and sent the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in June to around 20%, which was a sharp drop from the greater than 50% chance that was priced in before the data was released. The concern came as headline CPI was 3.5% over the last 12 months, which topped the estimate of 3.4% and core CPI rose 3.8% from a year ago, compared with the estimate of 3.7%. Last month the annual rate for headline CPI was 3.2% and for core CPI it was 3.8%. Energy prices were a benefit to headline CPI over the last year or so, but with the recent increase in energy we are beginning to see them not benefit the headline number as much and I soon worry they will cause the headline number to top the core CPI reading. In the March report, energy was up 2.1%, but as we lap the easy comparisons from last year the annual increase could climb substantially which would cause the headline CPI to increase. Shelter continues to be a major weight on the numbers as the index climbed 5.7% compared to last year and accounted for over 60% of the climb in core CPI. Transportation services were also a major negative as they climbed 10.7% compared to last year. I believe this can largely be attributed to rising energy prices. Also, motor vehicle insurance continues to be a major negative as it saw an increase of 22.2% over the last year. While this report wasn't overly positive, I would like to wait and see the PCE release on April 26th before abandoning the idea for a potential of three rate cuts this year.  March PPI The March Producer Price Index (PPI) report looked much more favorable than the CPI. Headline PPI rose 0.2% for the month, less than the 0.3% estimate and core PPI matched the estimate as it also rose 0.2% in the month. On a 12-month basis, PPI rose 2.1% which was the biggest gain since April 2023. While that may sound concerning, the inflation rate is near the Fed's target so I would not say that is problematic. Core PPI rose 2.4% over the last year, which was the highest since September. Like the headline number, I don't believe this is problematic considering the rate is still very reasonable in relation to the Fed's 2% target.  Investing Highs and Lows I love to read information from smart people like Daniel Kahneman, who unfortunately passed away at age 90 on March 27. He was a pioneer in behavioral economics, although he felt he was really a psychologist. If investors would listen to his advice, their returns would probably be much higher and their psychological well-being would be far better when it came to investing. He mentions that people who lost on an investment feel at least twice as much pain as the gains feel pleasant. He also discusses how people do not incorporate all available information and people believe that short streaks in a random process enables them to predict what will come next. Interestingly, he also points out that based on research of asking people if they want to take a risk with an 80% chance of success, most people say yes. However, if you flip-flop that around and ask if they incurred the same risk with a 20% chance of failure, they say no. Obviously the risk is the same, but the psychology is different. I believe this is why many people get into bad investments. Sales people just focus on the positive side and leave the unsuspecting investor to do their own risk analysis.  Semiconductor Industry While the semiconductor industry is likely to continue growing, I do worry about China hurting the growth of US semiconductor companies. Shares of chip companies like Intel and Advanced Micro Devices fell after the Wall Street Journal reported that China is ordering the country's largest telecommunications carriers to cease use of foreign chips. According to the Journal, Chinese officials issued the directive earlier this year for the telecom systems to replace non-Chinese core processors by 2027. China also recently set new guidelines to remove U.S. chips from government computers and servers. The problem here is China still remains a major market for US chip companies as the country accounted for 27% of Intel's revenue in 2023 and AMD generated 15% of sales from China. Data from S&P Global showed that U.S. chip giants Intel, Broadcom, Qualcomm and Marvell Technology all generate more revenue from China compared with the U.S. The relationship with China is definitely worth keeping an eye on if you are investing in semiconductor companies, especially since most of them now trade at lofty valuations. To Reinvest or Not Reinvest Dividends From a retirement planning standpoint, it can be helpful to not reinvest dividends, especially in non-retirement accounts. In a non-retirement account, or a taxable account as they are called, dividends are taxed exactly the same way whether they are reinvested or not. In retirement, the focus shifts from accumulation to building tax-advantaged cashflow. When a dividend is automatically reinvested, it repurchases the same holding it came from. On the other hand if it is paid in cash, it will remain in the account where it can be invested or withdrawn. Therefore, when a dividend is paid in cash and incurs its normal tax, that cash can be accessed without any additional tax consequences. Alternatively, when dividends are automatically reinvested which is still taxable, if cashflow is needed, sells will also need to be made to generate that cash which can result in additional capital gain taxes. In a way, you're getting taxed twice to create the same amount of cashflow. From a tax perspective, if a dividend is produced from a holding that is held for more than 60 days within the 121-day period surrounding the ex-dividend date, it will be considered a qualified dividend and taxed at the lower long-term capital gain rate. That criterion is a little technical but basically it means dividends from long-term holdings are taxed at the lower rate. It is popular to have dividends reinvested but this can force unnecessary taxation in retirement and can limit other planning opportunities like Roth Conversions. Stocks Discussed: BP (BP), Redfin (RDFN) and Highwood Properties (HIW)

We recap the week that was, including a look at the March CPI print and the potential implications to monetary policy (including a review of CIO's rate cut expectations). We also recap remarks from this week's Fed speakers, and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Truth Be Told with Booker Scott – We delve into the startling March CPI increase, questioning if the Biden administration's strategy is deliberate. The American Dream seems a relic of the past, overshadowed by economic despair and political turmoil. We explore the implications of a government detached from its people, amid rising national debt and inflation, with Clay Clark offering insights on the economic landscape and the final Reawaken America Tour.

①General Secretary Xi Jinping of the Communist Party of China Central Committee meets with Ma Ying-jeou in Beijing. (00:42)②US and Japan announce new military agreements. Is Japan shifting away from its pacifist stance? (14:39)③South Korean prime minister offers to resign after election defeat. What factors have contributed to the ruling party's defeat? (24:28)④China's March CPI up 0.1%, PPI down 2.8% (34:05)⑤JD.com bolsters video content creation with 1 billion yuan investment. (42:30)

Singapore stocks were pulled into negative territory today, tracking a Wall Street retreat after US inflation data topped estimates, dashing hopes for near-term rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. In early trade, the Straits Times Index (STI) headed down 0.9 per cent to 3,209.41 points, after 92.8 million securities changed hands in the broader market. In terms of companies to watch, we have City Developments Ltd. That's as the property developer's subsidiary Cityview Place Holdings said it will be selling 58 units of The Residences at W Singapore Sentosa Cove this month.  Elsewhere, from the impact of a hotter-than-expected US March inflation report on Asian markets, to Adobe purchasing videos to build its artificial intelligence text-to-video generator, more international and corporate headlines are in focus. Also on deck – China's March inflation numbers.  On Market View, The Evening Runway's finance presenter Chua Tian Tian dived into the details with David Chow, Director Azure Capital.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today we were thrilled to be joined by Maya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), to discuss a critical yet often ignored topic: the US national debt and budget deficits. Prior to her tenure at the CRFB starting in 2004, Maya served at the Brookings Institution and on Wall Street. Maya is a native Washingtonian, Harvard Kennedy School alumni, and frequently testifies before Congress as a leading budget expert. Founded in 1981, the CRFB is a bipartisan nonprofit dedicated to educating the public on issues with significant fiscal policy impact. The organization offers independent policy analysis, engages with policymakers to improve the country's fiscal and economic condition, and serves as an educational resource. At over 100% of GDP and in the range of the all-time high last seen during World War 2, the US national debt looms large as a significant macroeconomic and overall risk factor to the nation and the world. We were so excited to hear Maya's insights on this very important and very complex subject. In our conversation, Maya shares historical context on past efforts to address fiscal issues and how interest in fiscal policy has fluctuated (from Ross Perot to Simpson-Bowles to today), the current economic situation, the impact of recent events like COVID-19 on government borrowing and spending, how the increase in interest rates has highlighted the structural nature of the problem and gained the public's attention, and the current polarizing political environment and how it has halted efforts to address fiscal challenges. We discuss the responsibility of political leaders to acknowledge and address long-term budget concerns, challenges with addressing entitlement programs including Social Security and Medicaid, political leaders' refusal to address issues that are headed towards trust fund insolvency, proposed solutions including establishing a fiscal commission to tackle the issue comprehensively, the idea of inflating away the debt or selling assets to reduce the debt, major threats posed by the growing national debt including loss of fiscal space, economic slowdown, national security risks and intergenerational inequity, and much more. We covered a great deal of territory and can't thank Maya enough for joining. As you will hear, we offered to help Maya in any way we can, including helping her salute the “fiscal heroes” who are leaning in and trying to make a difference.   Mike Bradley kicked us off by flagging that this is an extremely important week for markets given both the March CPI and PPI will be released on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, and that if these stats print hotter-than-expected, the FED will not be cutting rates anytime soon. He noted markets may be underestimating inflation given sharp YTD gains in a variety of commodities. On the commodity front, WTI is trading at ~$86/bbl (highest level since Oct'23), WTI time spreads continue to trade in huge backwardation and the 2H'24 oil S/D deficit positions OPEC to push barrels back into the market. He noted that even though we remain pretty constructive with the 2H'24 crude oil setup, we're a bit concerned the recent crude oil bullishness is becoming too consensus. On the broader equity market front, equities continue to take their cue from both interest rates and an obsession with AI equities. If CPI and PPI readings print cooler-than-expected, it will result in a huge bond and broader equity market rally. This Friday will also be a heavy Q4 reporting week for U.S. major banks. He ended by highlighting that Exxon Mobil Corp. recently hit an all-time stock price high and that its market-cap and enterprise values (~$500B) finally rebounded back to their late-2007 levels. In late 2007, energy's weighting as a percentage of the S&P 500 was ~13% (peaked at ~16% in mid-2008) and today is at ~4%, leaving the energy sector plenty more room to run in the years ahead. Arjun Murti dis

US equity futures are indicating a broadly unchanged open as of 04:45 ET. This follows mixed markets in Asia, while European equity markets are mostly higher. The market is in waiting mode for several potential catalysts, particularly the March CPI due later today. We also have the ECB decision on Thursday and the start of bank earnings season on Friday. In overseas developments, Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its official cash rate unchanged as expected and reiterated rates need to remain restrictive for a sustained period. Companies mentioned: CVC Capital Partners, Tesco, Taiwan Semiconductor

Investors are preparing for the big event of the week: March CPI. Former Fed Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson gives his expectations. Plus, the FAA is investigation new whistleblower claims around Boeing's 787 Dreamliner. Jefferies' Sheila Kahyaoglu explains. And, is the chance of three rate cuts this year off the table? Hargreaves Lansdown's Emma Wall and Capital Wealth Planning's Kevin Simpson weigh in.

Chuck Zodda and Marc Fandetti react to the March CPI report that came in hotter than expected and sent markets down. What is happening in the bond market post CPI release? Todd Lutsky joins the show to share his opinion on how to build a successful gifting strategy in an estate plan. Todd also takes calls from the audience about their person retirement plans.

Edward Jones managing partner and CEO Penny Pennington speaks on the March CPI report and the Fed's potential path to cutting interest rates this year with Bloomberg's Romaine Bostick and Alix SteelSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

-Steven Ricchiuto, US Chief Economist, Mizuho Securities-David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist, JPMorgan Asset Management-Tobin Marcus, Head of Policy & Politics, Wolfe Research Mizuho Americas' Steven Ricchiuto & JPMorgan Asset Management's David Kelly react to the hotter-than-expected March CPI print, with differing takes on how it impacts monetary policy. Tobin Marcus, Head of Policy & Politics at Wolfe Research, discusses Japan Prime Minister Kishida's visit to Washington amid tensions over the US Steel takeover, as well as the Federal Reserve's outlook and legacy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US equities ended mostly higher in Tuesday trading, losing early morning gains around midday before recovering some into the close. The market is in waiting mode for several potential catalysts later this week, particularly the March CPI on Wednesday. NFIB small business optimism declined to its lowest level in March since December 2012, marking the 27th consecutive month below the 50-year average, with inflation cited as biggest problem.

On this week's TheStreet Pro Podcast, Chris Versace is joined by Cole Smead, CEO and portfolio manager at Smead Capital Management based in Phoenix, Arizona. Ahead of the March CPI report, the conversation starts with the two discussing their expectations for that report, what it means for Fed policy, and the Fed's role as a cheerleader for the economy. Cole raises the issue of structural changes in the economy, including the shift in fixed business investment, and why he thinks it means the economy can make do with a higher natural interest rate. The conversation shifts to AI and the CHIPs Act, with Cole sharing why he is wary of diminishing marginal returns for the tech industry. The two discuss how UniCredit (UNCFF) came to be one of the largest holdings at Smead Capital Management and why the team likes Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) and Credit Acceptance Corp. (CACC). Other sectors discussed include Energy and Financials, with Cole sharing he sees 30% fewer banks in the coming years. The two also touch on Cole's co-hosting duties for the “A Book With Legs” podcast. Note: There was a modest technical glitch at the 27-minute mark in the conversation.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen addresses tariffs, electric vehicles, and green exports in an exclusive interview with CNBC. Atlantic Council's Hugh Tran gives his thoughts on the conversation. Plus, Yellen also says she's focused on keeping American companies in business as they face growing pressure from China. KraneShares' Brendan Ahern dives into the issue. And, Wall Street faces a fresh test this week with March CPI on Wednesday. Rose Advisors at Hightower's Patrick Fruzzetti and Blanke Schein Wealth Management's Robert Schein discuss.

Here's what is happening in the markets today, Monday April 8th - Dow posts worst week since March 2023, down 2.3%. - S&P 500, Nasdaq suffer biggest losses since early January - 10-year Treasury yield surged above 4.4% - U.S. crude oil touched $87 amid geopolitical tensions - This week: key inflation data March CPI and PPI reports - Tesla's (TSLA) stock rises after Musk announces robotaxi unveil date PLUS: How we trade these markets and our current positions This wraps up today's stock market news. If you enjoyed the "Stock Market Today" episode, make sure to subscribe to this podcast.  And for more stock market news,  visit our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/rockwelltrading2008 #todaysstockmarket #stockmarkettoday #stockmarket

Rates strategists Jay Barry and Teresa Ho discuss the moves in secured funding rates and Treasury yields in the wake of strong manufacturing and employment data, and preview the risks around March CPI and the April tax date. Speakers Jay Barry, co-head US Rates Strategy Teresa Ho, Head of US Short Duration Strategy This podcast was recorded on April 5, 2024.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4655558-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4664658-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4667703-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 In this week's show Dr. Rasmus takes a ‘deep dive' into last week's Consumer and Producer Price Index Reports. Conclusions: Fed record rate hikes have shaken out demand driven causes of inflation but further gains will require even higher interest rate hikes. March CPI at 5% has improved only to 4.9% for April. Inflation reduction has ‘stalled out'. The reduction thus far has impacted energy and some food—i.e. what's called ‘headline inflation' but has left ‘core' inflation (all rest) virtually unchanged at 5.5% for most of past year.  Producer prices (that eventually drive consumer prices) are actually rising again. Energy (gasoline) costs and travel costs will again rise in coming months while business unit labor costs will rise due to collapsing US productivity and continuing price gouging by monopolistic corporations (ex: bakery goods) and rents hikes by landlords.

Welcome to episode 12 season 3 of the Expat Mortgage Podcast where we discuss the latest issues of securing and maintaining an Australian mortgage whilst you are an Australian expat. Enjoying the podcast? Why not leave us some feedback here: bit.ly/3nmzhie In this episode, James and Jeremy unpack the recent CPI data released by the ABS. Jeremy, provides some great insights into what he is seeing in the fixed rate and variable mortgage market. If you like the content make sure you let us know by hitting the thumbs up and subscribing as well as providing some feedback in the comments below. The Expat Mortgage Podcast is all about helping Australian expats secure and maintain a Australian mortgage whilst they're living and working overseas. This podcast is brought to you by Atlas Mortgages which is part of the Atlas Wealth Management Group who is the leading provider of Australian expat financial services. Atlas Mortgages works with Australian expats in over 30 countries and we make it our job to speak to 30 Australian Mortgage Lenders and review over 500 Australian Mortgage products to ensure that not only can you that mortgage as a Australian expat but also provide you with a loan that is right for you and your circumstances.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news price pressures seem to be easing in most economies - will they in New Zealand?But first today, American mortgage applications, which had been rising in recent weeks, fell back sharply last week in an unexpected reversal. It seems the recent rises did not indicate a recovery. They were down -9% from the prior week and down -36% from the same week a year ago. There was a minor rise in the benchmark 30 year fixed mortgage rate to 6.43% plus points, but it seems hard to assign the reason to that. But with rates well above year-ago levels and with most on very long contracts, there is little refinance incentive in this market.The US Fed's April Beige Book reviews describe an economy that is just chugging along at a moderate pace, nothing spectacular but now really slowing either. Consumer spending was flat, car sales steady, but lending volumes and loan demand were noted as lower. Their labour market showed a softer pace of growth and layoffs were concentrated in just a few industries they observed. Price increases "appeared to be slowing" the report noted. This has all the hallmarks of describing a 'soft landing'.Wall Street is awash in earnings reports that don't suggest their economy is failing. But ratings agencies are on track to cut the most US corporate bonds to junk since the early part of the pandemic, boosting funding costs for some companies just as economic growth is slowing. Apart from the pandemic jolt, 2023 is on track to be the toughest on bond rating downgrades since 2016, possibly even 2009.Canadian producer prices didn't bounce in the way expected. In fact they were -1.8% lower in March than year-ago levels after February was +1.6% higher on the same basis. The price pressure is noticeably off for Canadian businesses.Canada housing starts however fell sharply to just a 214,000 annual rate in March. Almost 240,000 were expected, the same level as February.And more than 155,000 federal workers in Canada went on strike after wage talks with the Ottawa government failed.In China, the way provincial institutions hide bad debts from property companies is getting some transparency. The financial engineering pushed the losses deeper away from view, but they are still there and building. Analysts are concerned they are now so concentrated and so large that their capacity to hide them is running out, and a financial earthquake is much closer for these zombie companies and assets.And one of China's largest EV markets, Europe, is insisting EV batteries meet their broad carbon targets - and that is a major problem for Chinese battery makers. They can't at present. EV sales were a stunning bright-spot in China's March exports. It may be brief.And we perhaps should also note that Tesla has again cut prices. This is the third time it has made major price reductions, and in the prior cases it resulted in sharply rising demand. It is a move that puts a hard squeeze on other EV makers.British inflation stayed above +10% when a fall lower was expected. However it was a fall from February, back to January's level. Food prices are the culprit there. It has now been more than two years that British consumer prices have been rising at an above +10% rate. The March result compares with EU inflation that is running at +5.7% annual rate now.In Australia , the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index was almost flat from the prior month in March 2023. This isn't a good sign according to Westpac. "The index for March is now consistent with below-trend growth extending throughout the remainder of this year," said Westpac chief economist Bill Evans. "While we see the household sector at the center of this, slowdown in the components of the index is also highlighting the drag from dwelling construction and the slowdown in the world economy.”Join us at 10:45am this morning where we will have full coverage of the local March CPI. Markets expect an annual rate of +7.1% and an annualised Q4-2022 to Q1-2023 rate of +6.8%. Variation from these levels will certainly have financial market implications.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.60%, and up +2 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold is at US$1994/oz and down -US$11 from this time yesterday.And oil prices are down -US$1.50 and just over US$79.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is just under US$83.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is unchanged against the USD and now at 62.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are slightly firmer at 92.4 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 56.7 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is at 69.9, up +20 bps.The bitcoin price is softer today, now back down to US$29,255 with a -3.1% fall from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed moderate at +/- 2.4%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news US workers are back with incomes rising faster than inflation, and China is back with notable growth.But first up today there was another dairy auction overnight and that brought a surprise lift in prices - not major, but unexpected. Prices rose +3.2% in USD terms and were up +4.9% in NZD terms. This comes after a series of disappointing results, interrupted by the occasional rise. It is hard to know whether this pattern is repeating or this marks a turning point up. Today's rise was the most since September 2022, but was on low offered volumes, the least since June 2022. The core WMP price only moved up +1.0% but butter was up +4.9% from the prior event, cheddar cheese up +5.7% and SMP was up 7.0%. Rising demand for foodservice uses in China was probably behind these shifts.Meanwhile American retail is still weakening, up a mere +1.1% last week from the same week a year ago, nowhere near enough of a gain to account for inflation. Excluding the pandemic period, that is a weak expansion matching the 2016 period.Perhaps Americans are becoming more thrifty? Median weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers were +6.1% higher in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period a year earlier, according to official US data. Inflation during that time ran at +5.8%. The inflation story is almost always about workers falling behind, but not so in the US it seems, and that is pretty notable. Actually, in the US, this positive relationship was pretty normal in the years 2013 to 2021. It was only when inflation got out of control that the tables were turned.March housing starts in the US were little-changed from February and essentially maintaining their recent uptick even if they are lower than year-ago levels. New residential building consents were at a similar level although they seem to be tailing off in 2023.Canada didn't surprise with its March CPI inflation number, coming in at the expected +4.3% level from a year ago. But that is its lowest there since mid-2021. Petrol prices fell, food price rises slowed.China's bounce out of its pandemic lockdown raised their GDP by +2.2% in Q1-2023 from Q4-2022. This was the rise analysts expected. However from a year ago, their GDP is up +4.5% which was more than the +4.0% expected. This was all driven by retail sales which were up +10.6% with widespread revenge spending. Electricity production was up +5.1% with coal production up +5.5% and imported coal flooding back in. Industrial production rose +3.9% when +4% was expected. If you think about these relative changes, they don't actually suggest a very stable situation but that may just be their systems stuttering to reopen.The Indonesian central bank reviewed its policy rate and monetary settings overnight and left that key rate unchanged at 5.75%.The recent improvement in economic sentiment in Germany is still there but it is less in the latest ZEW survey. This is despite an improvement in the view for current conditions.The latest RBA minutes show they are prepared to raise rates again, despite their recent pause, because they fear strong population growth and big public sector wage rises will push up inflation again. The pause was nervously agreed, these minutes show. Inflation is currently running at 7.8%. The policy rate is still only 3.6%And staying in Australia, their tax authorities are about to audit up to 1.7 million mortgage holders this financial year as it clamps down on tax-rorting by residential property investors. Almost 20 financial institutions, including the big four banks, will be required to share loan data with the ATO as part of a new data-matching program, which the tax office says shows nine in 10 landlords are getting their tax returns wrong - not declaring rental income and/or over-claiming expenses. Billions are involved.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.58%, and little-changed from this time yesterday. The price of gold is at US$2005/oz and up +US$10 from this time yesterday.And oil prices are little-changed and just over US$81/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is just under US$85/bbl.The Kiwi dollar has moved up slightly against the USD and now at 62.1 USc and a +30 bps firming. Against the Aussie we are unchanged 92.2 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 56.6 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is at 69.7, up +20 bps.The bitcoin price is firmer today, now back at US$30,178 and up +2.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.3%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles Guest Co-host: Chris Alaimo Fed Watch is a macro podcast with a clear contrarian thesis of a deflationary breakdown of the financial system leading to bitcoin adoption. We question narratives and schools of thought, and try to form new understanding. Each episode we use current events to question mainstream and bitcoin narratives across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.  Find all charts and links at bitcoinandmarkets.com/fed140 In this episode, CK was running a little late, so Chris Alaimo jumped in to fill in co-hosting duties. A few minutes CK jumps in and we have a good three-host episode. Our topics for today were Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers out of the US. CPI was released on Wednesday this week, and PPI on Thursday. There was a lot to be learned by taking a look at the data in a certain way. Make sure to check out all the chart on the bitcoinandmarkets.com link above. March CPI came in under the 0.2% month-over-month (m/m) forecast, at 0.1%. Down from 0.4% last month. If you go back to the February data, the main story-line back then was reacceleration of inflation. I thought that was unlikely, and March saw a dramatic decline. If you scrap the nearly worthless year-over-year (y/y) headline number, which is only a cumulative m/m, and instead focus on CPI since July 2022, the annualized rate for those 9 months is 3.4%, not the 5.0% of the headline y/y number. I forecasted CPI to be in the 2% y/y headline range by July this year. To confirm that theory, we rolled into the PPI, or upstream prices that producers are paying. The PPI tends to lead the CPI by 3 months. March PPI came in at -0.5%. Yep, negative. Lastly, we reexamine the small business funding in the US and banks' lending standards. The numbers are pretty startling. Lending standards are tightening rapidly and small business sentiment is the lowest EVER. Even lower than the Great Financial Crisis or Dotcom crash. All these things together tell us that a slowdown is coming. The question now is does that tip over into a hard landing, deep recession? I still don't think so. Of course, the economic fallout will be geographically distributed. Some national economies will be hit much worse than others. Thanks for joining us. If you are reading this, hit the like and subscribe button! Constant updates on bitcoin and macro Free weekly Bitcoin Fundamentals Report Ansel Lindner On Twitter Christian Keroles On Twitter Chris on Twitter Watch this Episode: YouTube ||  Rumble  Slide deck BLS CPI home BLS PPI home If you enjoy this content please LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE! Written by Ansel Lindner Find More and Follow THIS EPISODE'S SPONSORS: Moon Mortgage - https://www.moonmortgage.io River - https://river.com/ Gordon Law - https://gordonlawltd.com/ Bitcoin 2023 Miami - https://b.tc/conference/ Bitcoin Magazine - https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/ Bitcoin Magazine Pro - https://bitcoinmagazine.com/tags/bitcoin-magazine-pro Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount! https://b.tc/conference/2023 Use promocode: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store

Biden is on a family vacation in Ireland - and embarassing us! David Hochberg of Homeside Financial stops in studio and talks with Shaun about the great Chicago exodus and what that means for your mortgage rates. PLUS, Joel Griffith from The Heritage Foundation tells Shaun what the March CPI report DOESN'T tell us - that real wages have declined for 24 consecutive months.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The March CPI report just came out, how is it affecting the price of bitcoin? In this video, we will discuss the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the top altcoins. We'll take a look at the cryptocurrency markets and the latest crypto news. Interested in Crypto Retirement Accounts? Check out iTrust Capital! ➡️ https://itrust.capital/Bitboy

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase. This more than offset a decline in the energy index, which decreased 3.5 percent over the month as all major energy component indexes declined. The food index was unchanged in March with the food at home index falling 0.3 percent.The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in March, after rising 0.5 percent in February. Indexes which increased in March include shelter, motor vehicle insurance, airline fares, household furnishings and operations, and new vehicles. The index for medical care and the index for used cars and trucks were among those that decreased over the month.The all items index increased 5.0 percent for the 12 months ending March; this was the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending May 2021. The all items less food and energy index rose 5.6 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 6.4 percent for the 12 months ending March, and the food index increased 8.5 percent over the last year. ☕Get your coffee today at www.duckrivercoffee.com

Ben, Tom, and Andrew discuss March's CPI numbers. As the CPI numbers continue to cool, it appears that inflation could be slowing a bit due to rate hikes (and other factors). Warren Buffet comments on bank failures and Powell's "terrific" work. Bank of America shows the slowest pace of credit and debit card spending since Feb 2021.For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit https://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhalcapital.com/disclosure

The March CPI report is out this morning as investors look for signs that inflation is cooling. Moody's Analytics' Mark Zandi gives his expectations. Plus, Wells Fargo is warning that the resilience of U.S equities will be short-lived. Piper Sandler's Craig Johnson discusses his thoughts. And, a new note from Bank of America shows clients are continuing to unload stocks, with ETFs posting their biggest outflow since January. Veritas Financial's Greg Branch explains why he's in the selling camp.

Chuck Zodda and Brendan Hayes shares some helpful tips on how to deal with their subscription spending. Dan Griggs, OceanFirst Bank Boston President, joins the show to provide his insight to the March CPI data. Companies hiring struggles are often self-inflicted. Houston apartment owner loses 3,200 units to foreclosure. The EPA seeks to boost EVs with tightest-ever rules on tailpipe emissions.

Chuck Zodd, Brendan Hayes, and Marc Fandetti react to the release of the March CPI data and take a look at the positives and negatives. Tighter lending amid this bank volatility could cause the US GDP to shrink by .44%. Todd Lutsky stops by for his weekly segment, Ask Todd. Mr. Lutsky shares some advice on how to ensure your children don't lose out on their inheritance.

Jay Bryson, Wells Fargo Chief Economist, still sees the Fed hiking by 25 basis points in May following the March CPI print. Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund Portfolio Manager, says the direction of the banking crisis is "clear" but "the magnitude is not." Adam Posen, Peterson Institute for International Economics President & former BOE Monetary Policy Committee member, discusses the problems with subsidies in global trade. Tim Adams, Institute of International Finance President and CEO & former Under Secretary of Treasury for International Affairs, says this isn't a banking crisis. Mark Kimmitt, former US Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs & Retired Brigadier General, discusses the leak of classified documents. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Listen to today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes. Subscribe and rate our podcast here:Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bloomberg-daybreak-asia/id1663863437Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0Ccfge70zthAgVfm0NVw1bTuneIn: https://tunein.com/podcasts/Asian-Talk/Bloomberg-Daybreak-Asia-Edition-p247557/?lang=es-es See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Crypto News Today! Justin Bebis from Byte Masons joins the show! March CPI came out TODAY and was fairly net neutral vs. expectations. Bitcoin continues to hover at $30K, but could we see a retrace double top? Ethereum Shapella Upgrade is here - we break down 4 possible outcomes! Ren Protocol transfers all assets to FTX debtors' wallet in case of shutdown. We breakdown an FTX exchange crypto assets, what they hold, how much, what could happen if liquidated? TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Show begins 1:00 Welcome Justin Bebis Byte Masons 2:38 Granary LGE - What's Next? / Ethos Reserve - What's Next? 15:38 March CPI Data & Bitcoin - Market Talk 27:06 Ethereum Shapella Upgrade Impacts/Outcomes? 29:43 ETH Shapella Impact: Price Drop? 41:06 ETH Shapella Impact: Nothing Burger? 46:06 ETH Shapella Impact: Institutional Adoption? 56:59 ETH Shapella Impact: Better Tech, More Decentralized? 1:02:00 Ren Protocol transfers all assets to FTX debtors 1:08:03 FTX Assets that COULD be liquidated! Nothing you read/see on Blockbytes YouTube or blockbytes.com should be considered financial advice. Please use all of the information available to you and do your own research. There are many risks inherent with Crypto currency investing which includes up to complete loss of funds. So please never invest with money you cannot afford to lose. All of Blockbytes content is for entertainment purposes only and the opinions of the presenters and guests do not necessarily reflect the views of Blockbytes LLC. Nothing you see in any of the blockbytes content should be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any assets. Any links of which Blockbytes receives a commission will be clearly marked as such. If you like the content that we produce and can use the products then please consider using our referral links above.

US equities were mixed in Tuesday trading, off best levels after a late afternoon slide. Cyclicalswere among the best performers again, with homebuilders, machinery, electricalsand multis, road and railways, banks, energy, industrial metals, autos, andretail among the best. Meanwhile, FANMAGs were all lower, along with software,internets, IT equipment, insurance, grocers, bond proxies, and biotech. Themarket awaits March CPI and FOMC minutes data tomorrow. Some notable earningsinclude Apogee Enterprises before the open and Argan Inc. after the close.

We are coming at you a day earlier than usual with this week's AAP Podcast so Chris Versace, lead portfolio of TheStreet's Action Alerts Plus, and Todd Campbell, editor of TheStreet Smarts, can prepare you for the March Consumer Price Index report and its implications for the market as well as monetary policy. Chris and Todd discuss not only the consensus forecast of +5.6% year over year for core March CPI but also delve into what the Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcasting model sees ahead for April for both the CPI and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index. The short of it is neither points to meaningful progress on inflation, which as Todd and Chris discuss has a long way to go to the Fed's 2% target. The bottom line is the March CPI report has the potential for the market to begin re-thinking the rate cuts it sees per the CME FedWatch Tool. The two then move to talk about what they will be watching as bank earnings start to roll in and then move into discussing several stock valuation tools they use. From when and how to use the price to earnings (P/E) metric as well as some of its shortcomings to other tools ranging from price to sales, dividend yield, and enterprise value to revenue. You'll also hear why Todd isn't a fan of using EBITDA, as well as what one of his go-to valuation metrics is. Chris and Todd recap some rules of thumb you'll want to factor into your thinking and share why you need to listen to math.

Overview: Join us on this week's episode of Launch Financial as we discuss the state of the global economy and the markets as they brace up for tomorrow's March CPI data report and Thursday's PPI report. We will also watch out for bank earnings for the first time since the banking collpase on Friday. Email info@shermanwealth.com with any questions.    

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news a coming car crash may be a literal one.First up today in China, their March car sales were strong. But they may have been at the expense of future sales because car makers are offering deep discounts to buyers. The fierce price cutting is endemic, and profits will be few. Some key suppliers are now reporting that orders have just suddenly dried up. The industry body is calling for an end to discounts, but with planned production expansion, that seems unlikely. It is a manufacturing sector that might wobble soon. After all, sales are now running -15% lower than their 2017 peak.But we now have the private Caixin services PMI for China and that has confirmed the earlier reported strong rise in the official services PMI - showing a robust expansion there. It's the fastest pace of expansion in activity since November 2020, and comes with strong new services order intakes following the end of their pandemic restrictions. New orders rose at the fastest pace in 28 months, with new export business expanding at the quickest rate since the series began in September 2014. The contrast with the US is worth noting, but to be fair the US expansion has been going on for very much longer and without the volatility.In the US, there were no surprises from the March non-farm payrolls report on the giant US labour market. The headline seasonally adjusted rise was +236,000 and very similar to the +240,000 expected. But in fact, the actual (not seasonally adjusted) payrolls rose +520,000 to an employed labour force of 154.7 mln and a remarkable +4.1 more people employed that in March 2022. This data is from employer payroll records. And it we look at the household survey, one that includes self employment, +605,000 more people were in work in March than February and the total employed workforce grew to 166.8 mln (again actual, not seasonally adjusted). None of this suggests the US labour force is wobbling yet.That is not to suggest there aren't stresses; there are, especially in the tech sector. US-based employers announced 270,000 job cuts in the March quarter, the highest first quarter total since 2020. 90,000 of these were in March alone.US initial jobless claims are hard to read this week. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to 207,000 in the week ending April 1st from the prior week. However the previous week's data was revised up in their seasonally adjusted series and that got all the headlines. There are now 1.845 mln people on these benefits, a small decline, but not as low as the 1.7 mln expected.Maybe because employment is strong, one area that is doing much better is car sales. New vehicle sales volume is expected to have a +5.7% year-over-year rise for Q1 2023.  March is expected to see an +8.6% year-over-year sales volume rise. This performance has put 2023 on track to hit a 15 mln annual rate, a steep uptick from last year's 14.1 million. Units sold in March hit 1.366 million. But at these levels the US vehicle market is a lot smaller than the Chinese market. And Americans don't seem to be taking out car loans any faster, despite the uptick in sales locally.The next big piece if US data is due on Thursday this week (NZT) and that is their March CPI. It is widely expected to come in at under a 4% annualised rate in March from February, a slower pace the the prior month's 5% rate. But it is still well above the target the US Fed wants, so the actual result will be keenly watched.American consumer debt levels rose an insignificant +US$15.3 bln in February and this was less than the +US$20 bln expected, but slightly more than the seasonally low January rise. Still, on a per capita basis, Americans have US$14,000 of non-housing debt, which is high when you compare that to New Zealand's NZ$2,560 per capita. The tables are turned on housing debt of course.The US financial stress index has returned to its low pre-SVB levels. Meanwhile, an index measuring global supply chain pressure has not only eased suddenly, it has retreated to its lowest level since 2009.But all bets are off in the giant American commercial property market. Bloomberg has calculated that a wall of US$1.5 tln of commercial property debt is due to roll over in the next 20 months, just when banks have lost their appetite for funding such debt. And you can understand why; Morgan Stanley reckon office and retail property valuations could fall as much as 40% from peak to trough, increasing the risk of defaults. And it is the smaller regional banks that hold much of this debt. They are unlikely to want to keep those exposures, and the big banks are likely to eschew them too.From the US to Japan, real estate investment trusts that focus on office property have taken a hit from fears that financing will be harder to come by. The S&P 1500 Office REITs Sub-Industry Index, which tracks major office property REITs in the US, fell to 53 at one point in late March. It was down more than 20% from the end of 2022 and plumbed its lowest point since 2009. As of Thursday, the index still languished under 60. This is an international trend that is yet to arrive in New Zealand.North of the border, Canada has delivered a better-than-expected March jobs report, essentially driven by much better full-time employment data.Also much better than expected is the closely-watched Ivey factory PMI for Canada, reporting an improvement that we didn't see in the earlier Markit version. The Ivey version rise was based on expanding employment and inventory levels.In India, their central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 6.5% which was a surprise because a +25 bps rise was expected. India's consumer inflation likely eased in March to 5.8% thanks to softer food price rises, dipping below the RBI's upper tolerance limit, and this may have encouraged them to hold off.In Germany industrial production surged +2% month-on-month in February and beating market forecasts of a meagre +0.1% gain. Production in vehicle manufacturing, which is the largest one in Germany, increased sharply. Industrial output went also up for both capital goods and consumer goods.Australia posted another very large trade surplus in February for both goods and services. The surplus swelled by +AU$2.6 bln to AU$13.9 bln, the third largest surplus on record. A key reason was that imports retreated in the month, a shift which was expected, but the size of the fall was much larger than anticipated. The outsized February surplus takes their annual surplus to more than AU$145 bln, equivalent to +5.9% of their GDP.And their central bank has released its Financial Stability Review. In it they say about 15% of borrowers are forecast to have "negative spare cash flow". About 9% are expected to run out of savings buffers by the middle of the year, even if they slash spending, unless rates fall. Specifically they say (p41) "... there is a group of borrowers who, even if they cut back sharply on non-essential spending, will be at risk of exhausting their savings buffers within six months unless they can make other adjustments to their income or essential spending. ... those on lower incomes and recent first home buyers are over-represented in this group."Global food prices are still falling. The FAO March index posted the twelfth consecutive monthly decline since reaching its peak one year ago and down more than -20%. The decline in March was led by drops in cereal, vegetable oil and dairy price prices, while those of sugar and meat rose.The global economy is set to grow at roughly 3% over the next five years which would be the slowest pace since 1990, the head of the IMF has said. Her heads-up comes as they prepare to release an update to their World Economic Outlook later today.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.41%, and up +12 bps from Thursday. The price of gold is at US$2008 and unchanged from Saturday's level. It won't start trading again until Asian markets reopen later today.And oil prices are little-changed at just under US$80.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is still just over US$84.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is unchanged against the USD and now at 62.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are still at 93.7 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 57.3 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is at 70.4 and unchanged from Saturday.The bitcoin price is little-changed again today, now at US$27,935 and virtually unchanged from Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been virtually non-existant at less than +/-0.1%.And we should note that the American subsidiary of Binance, the firm being challenged by US Federal regulators is struggling to find a bank to handle its customers' cash after the failure of Signature Bank last month, the Wall Street Journal reported. Previously, the deposits were sent to either Signature Bank or Silvergate Capital, both seen as crypto-friendly banks. However, after both failed, Binance is struggling to find a bank willing to engage with themPlease note that New Zealand is on holiday today for the long Easter weekend.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

On this week's podcast, AAP's Chris Versace and Street Smart's Todd Campbell waded deep into the sea of March economic data, sharing their thoughts on what it means for the economy and monetary policy. They also discussed recent comments from AAP team member Doug Kass about the rangebound market and ones from Helene Meisler for a potentially challenging time for tech stocks in the very near term. That moved into a conversation about how they are approaching the market between now and the start of the March quarter earnings season. From there, the conversation morphed into a review of Nvidia's (NVDA) strong stock performance as it touted AI, and that led to a discussion on March search engine market share data. What was most interesting in that data was what it showed for Microsoft's (MSFT) AI-enhanced Bing search engine vs. Google's (GOOGL). The two also touched on recent Competition Authority investigations into Meta Platforms (META), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Google as well as Foxconn's (HNHPF) warning for the June quarter. Closing out the podcast both Chris and Todd share what they will be focusing on next week amid the fallout of the March Employment Report, March CPI and PPI data, and the March Retail Sales report. The two also share their go-to Easter candy.

US equities finished mixed in Monday trading, but ended back near best levels after a midday slump. Investors navigated an uneventful session to kick off Q2, with not much expected ahead in the holiday-shortened week as the market waits on key catalysts including nonfarm payrolls on 7-Apr and the March CPI on 12-Apr. US ISM manufacturing missed, the lowest since May-20 with new orders down and employment component the lowest since Jul-20.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that as global price pressures ease, we may be starting to see a wage-price surge locally.But first, the American housing market is continuing its measured rise with a surprise rise in February pending home sales. You may recall they rose more than +8% year-on-year in January, and analysts thought February would give back about -2.3% of that. But in fact they rose again, by +0.8%, and locking in the gains. It is the Northeast where the big gains are coming from; the West remains weak. It's a recovery of transaction volume at this stage, not in prices, where the median remained at US$363,000 (NZ$583,000).This gain in real estate volume may well have carried on into March. Mortgage applications rose +2.9% last week, a fourth consecutive week of increases, and the longest winning streak in four years. Mortgage interest rates were little-changed with the benchmark 30yr fixed rate at 6.45% plus points, but that is a one-month low.Singapore reported that their producer prices are deflating fast now, down -4.7% in February on top of a -1.5% drop in January from the same month a year ago.In Thailand, their central bank raised its policy rate by +25 bps to 1.75%. They are reporting a good recovery and a growing economy. Their rate increase is part of their 'normalisation' program.Yet another survey reported that German consumer sentiment is improving, extending the trend to six consecutive months.But in Russia, retail sales are sharply lower (-7.8%), as is industrial production (-1.7%). Both sets of data are worse in February than January.Although it is not expected to have much impact on trade flows, the CPTPP eleven nation trade group is expected to agree that the UK can join. You may recall that both Taiwan and China have also applied, but they will be caught up in the global political rivalry. The CPTPP is the high-standard trade bloc promoted by the US Obama Administration, but was abandoned by the Trump Administration. However, even without the US it is doing an effective job raising trade deal standards especially labour and environmental standards. Even China's preferred RCEP looks up to the CPTPP.In Australia, their inflation rate is moderating, although it remains very high. Their CPI rose 6.8% in the year to February, easing from a 7.4% gain in the year to January. This was less than the 7.1% expected and was the second straight month of lower annual inflation and the softest pace since last June. The easing is largely due to slower rises in prices of housing, food, and transport. Financial markets were pricing virtually no change to the RBA cash rate at next week's review, and may be vindicated by this CPI update. But ANZ says it thinks the RBA will hike by +25 bps again next week because inflation is "still too high". New Zealand won't get its March CPI update until April 20.But whether Aussie inflation continues to moderate is still up in the air. Their unions seem ready to push for big +7% wage claims in cost-of-living campaigns at both state and national levels, and in both the public and private sectors.Tallies of funding activity in international financial markets shows that Australian banks are having no problems raising money. All recent issues (especially by ANZ, CBA and NAB) have been heavily over-subscribed, enabling them to have raised most of their 2023 requirements already. International investors seem to prize Aussie banks for their "unquestionably strong" capital benchmarks.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.56%, up +2 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will open today at US$1965/oz and down -US$5 from this time yesterday.And oil prices start today unchanged from yesterday at just over US$73.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now just on US$78/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is down -¼c against the USD and now at 62.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 93.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 57.5 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now up at 70.2 with a minor -10 bps daily dip.The bitcoin price is much higher today, now at US$28,246 and up +5.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high too at +/-3.5%. You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

On Episode 43 of the podcast, Broke Boi Crypto (@BrokeBoiCrypto) and Crypto Ewok (@CryptoEwok) discuss: - BTC now trading below 22K off of Jerome Powell statement - What should we expect for March CPI data and 3/22 FOMC meeting? - What types of coins/communities to avoid as the bull market picks back up - Richard Heart branding change on social media? What does it mean? - PulseChain updates and Testnet V3 seems right around the corner - Changing terminology from the term"Staking" to...what? Follow the show on Twitter: @CreedOfCrypto Buy Us a Cup of Coffee: https://www.powr.io/checkout_screen?unique_label=e2df0c6e_1623177500

When we got the March CPI data last month, the mainstream crooned that it looked like we were at peak inflation. This was wishful thinking. The April CPI data that came out this week, along with the producer price numbers, indicate that we're still climbing that inflation mountain. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey digs into the data and discusses how it could impact the trajectory of Fed monetary policy and the economy. You can visit the show notes page here: https://bit.ly/3Lbvfmm Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week's economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful commentary. For more information visit https://schiffgold.com/news.

US Equities mostly lower in the short week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both down for a second-straight week though the small-cap Russell edged a gain. Downward price action came despite the week's rate reprieve. Treasuries' sharp bull steepening move driven by Tuesday's March CPI report. Banks kicked off earnings season with mixed results. Musk makes offer of questionable seriousness to buy Twitter.

Kevin O'Neill starts off our first hour discussing the pandemic, Chicago Bulls, Illinois Inflation and more. Russell Rhoads calls in for hour two to talk on the Russian Invasion, how the US should look at “employing” its Presidents and the March CPI report.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in a press briefing yesterday, "We expect March CPI headline inflation to be extraordinarily elevated due to Putin's price hike . . . ." Jordan and the rest of the Sekulow team break down Jen Psaki's full remarks and provide their insight on the real causes for record inflation numbers in the U.S. This and more today on Sekulow.

US equities mostly lower Tuesday, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all ending down roughly three-tenths of a percent. Stocks attempted to bounce following March CPI data this morning on the softer Core (ex food and energy) reading. Path of least resistance remains lower as often-intertwined bearish talking points pile up. Q1 bank earnings reports begin tomorrow.

S&P Futures are flat to fractionally higher this morning as futures just upticked into positive territory. The market is waiting on this morning's March CPI release due out 1 hour before the market opens. Bank stocks are weak in Europe as a major investor recently sold their position. Auto's, FANG, and Semiconductor stocks are training slightly higher this morning in the premarket. Fed Gov Brainard is scheduled to be speaking mid-day today.

*No call tomorrow morning as the crew preps for our quarterly macro presentation tomorrow at 4:45pm* Today, Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the run-off taking place in the French presidential election, Elon Musk's decision to decline a board seat at Twitter, states slowing municipal bond issuance (which could be a good thing), and a busy week of economic data including the March CPI print, earnings reports, and retail sales numbers.For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit https://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the expected reactions are bedding in now with equity prices sliding as bond yields rise sharply again.But first, American inflation expectations are rising, in the short term at least. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations increased to a new series high of 6.6% in March from 6.0% in February, while three-year ahead inflation expectations actually slipped to 3.7% from 3.8%. The increase in short-term expectations is broad-based across age, education, and income groups. Tomorrow we get the official March CPI data and 6.6% is what is expected for core inflation. But including food and energy, analysts are expecting total CPI inflation to be up at 8.4%, and well above the 7.9% recorded in February.The US Treasury auctioned US$46 bln of 3 year Notes earlier today. They got bids worth US$114 bln, but for the accepted bids they had to pay 2.68% - a three year high - which is up sharply from the 1.70% they paid just a month ago in an equally popular auction.Canada is girding itself for a +50 bps rate rise by their central bank this week.China is apparently getting a bit more inflation now. Their official data says overall prices were up +1.5% in the year to March, but because there was no change from February what we are seeing are base effects moving the annual number up. Food prices are rising as part of that (+2.0% year-on-year), but prices for beef (0.0%) and lamb (-4.6%) are not part of that. Milk prices are rising slightly (+0.4%). The easing of high producer price inflation did happen in March, but not be as much as was expected. It is now running at +8.3% year-on-year.And despite their economic slowdown, Chinese banks are lending at a fast rate, with new loans up more than +10% in March. Bank debt is rising at more than twice the economic growth rate, an extended distortion.The Shanghai government announced yesterday that it will lift pandemic lockdown restrictions in just over 40% of its neighbourhoods, though the city as a whole has continued to log record daily infections. Spreading distress for locked-down residents is behind the move. And that distress has been noticed in Guangzhou (the metropolis near Hong Kong) where there has been a severe run on supermarkets and household supplies in case authorities there impose a similar tough lockdown.The French first round election result has gone as we noted yesterday, so the Incumbent president and his far-right rival are now expected to be in a tight race in two weeks for the second round and deciding vote. What will swing this result is how the third-place 'left' voters react. Will they turn out for Macron? If so he will win comfortably. If not it will be very close. (For the record, the traditional French conservatives polled only 5% in the first round.)Zinc prices have skyrocketed to above US$4,400/tonne in April, just shy of its record peak hit in November 2006. Demand remains strong, but Russia is a key supplier and supply disruptions are spreading. High energy prices aren't helping. As a consequences inventories are very low with them virtually zero in Europe and falling in the US. Zinc isn't the only metal under pressure, but it is emblematic.There has been another heady rise in benchmark bond yields overnight with the UST 10yr yield rising +8 bps to 2.78% taking it back to a level we last saw in November 2018. The price of gold starts today at US$1947/oz and essentially unchanged from this time yesterday.And oil prices are down -US$3.50 at just under US$94/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is down -US$4 and now just on US$98/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today lower by -20 bps at 68.3 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are marginally firmer at 92 AUc. Against the euro we are at 62.7 euro cents an slightly softer. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just under 74.2 and little-changed from this time yesterday.The bitcoin price is down a sharp -6.4% from this time yesterday at US$40,327. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at +/- 3.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Major US equity indexes are mixed in Friday afternoon trading and mostly lower on the week. The S&P is off just under 1% the Nasdaq fell ~3.75% and the Dow ended the week nearly flat. The backup in bond yields has been the big story again this week with treasuries set for another big weekly pullback and 10Y yields up over 30 bp. Looking ahead, March CPI will be the highlight on the economic calendar next week. The big banks also kick off Q1 earnings season on Wednesday. Inflation and supply chain pressures are expected to dominate the earnings season narrative with pricing power, wage pressure and geopolitical uncertainty rounding out the other high-profile themes.

Katrina Ell, Senior APAC Economist at Moody's Analytics, discusses higher-than-expected March CPI numbers, even as Malaysia grapples with a slow vaccine rollout and an uncertain economic outlook. Image credit: Shutterstock.com

This week, I've got 3 major financial headlines for you… 1 - Earnings season got off to a roaring start last week, with most major companies beating analyst expectations, pushing the stock market to yet another new all time high on Friday 2 - Those inflation concerns I keep talking about? Last week we got some actual data that validates them as the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March Consumer Price Index, up 2.6% over the last year And 3 - March Retail sales numbers came out last week - and were up nearly 10% from February, boosted by those stimulus checks that went out last month. But the big question is - will that continue in April? … after that, ahead of this week's housing market data releases, we will take a deep dive into what drives the housing market. Every day I get questions asking if the housing market is in another bubble? If prices are going to crash again like back in 2008. I'm going to walk through the factors supporting current demand against a building supply shortage that explain exactly why it's not a bubble and I don't foresee a housing market crash coming any time soon. ____________________ For more on this week's headlines: https://familyfinancemom.com/this-weeks-stock-market/ For more on the housing market: https://familyfinancemom.com/is-this-a-good-time-to-buy-a-house/ Follow Family Finance Mom everywhere... Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/familyfinancemom/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/financemom1 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/familyfinancemom Get weekly newsletter here: http://eepurl.com/gblbY9 --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/familyfinancemom/message

In today's show, you will learn what Fed Chair Powell got right and wrong in his 60 minutes interview, how the Facebook SMB report suggests the elevated weekly unemployment claims are due to struggling small businesses, how today's Treasury auctions went, how hedge-fund managers are positioned in the futures market, and a preview of tomorrow's March CPI print. #BondBullish #DollarBullish #CPI Have a question for the show? From time to time I answer your questions. E-mail Steve or, send him a message on Facebook, LinkedIn or Twitter. http://stevenvanmetre.com/about/contact/ https://www.facebook.com/svmfin/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/steven-van-metre-b4a08b182/ https://twitter.com/MetreSteven https://stevenvanmetre.com/portfolio-shield/ Portfolio Shield™, and The Macro Show™, and Momentum Timer Pro™ are unregistered trademarks of Steven Van Metre Financial. Watermark Artwork by Jasmine Miller Twitter: @jazcreative The content of this video is provided as educational information only and is not intended to provide investment or other advice. This material is not to be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security, financial product, instrument, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. This video was prepared by Steven Van Metre in my own personal capacity. The opinions expressed in this video are my own and do not reflect the view of Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. or Steven Van Metre Financial.