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EPISODE CHAPTERS WITH FULL SUMMARIES ---------(0:00:01) - Managing Interest and Liquidity Risk (10 Minutes)We explore the importance of managing interest rate, liquidity, and credit risk together, focusing on cash flows, and understanding early warning indicators of liquidity risk. We also discuss the importance of focusing on future liquidity tracks versus past measurements as well as the risks associated with the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and the need to understand risks that can build up in hours, not days. Finally, we explore the need for credit unions to have a modern system in place that can track these risks in hours.(0:10:00) - Communication and Blame in Bank Failures (12 Minutes)The importance of having a clear communication plan in place, the finger-pointing that often occurs when banks fail, and the role that regulators have to play are discussed. Mismanagement is almost always to blame for bank failures, and how regulators may have contributed to the situation is explored. The FDIC and other government agencies used the crisis as an opportunity to call for pay raises and other regulations is considered. Lastly, the role of the CPA firm in the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank is examined.
Reggie Young and Alexandra Barrage dive deep into the FDIC's significance in the financial space of both banks and fintech. They talk about the FDIC's functions, compositions, and scope of authority, while analyzing how the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank affects fintechs and their relationship with the FDIC.
When banks like Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank went under, many people believed that we were going to start experiencing what we did back in 2008 during the "Great Financial Crisis". While these things definitely rhyme, what we saw a couple months ago versus what we saw more than a decade ago is actually much different. Host: Nic Daniels BFA™, Financial Advisor The Real Money Pros https://www.therealmoneypros.com ————————————————————— SPONSORS: Academy Mortgage: https://academymortgage.com/?lo=dave-perry&utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=show_sponsor Lively (HSAs and FSAs) https://livelyme.com/pro Tree City Advisors of Apollon: https://www.treecityadvisors.com Apollon Wealth Management: https://apollonwealthmanagement.com/ Advisor Insurance Solutions: https://advisorinsurancesolutions.com/ —————————————————————
About the Show:"Northwest Arkansas is such a unique place because it's small enough that you can still make an impact, but it's big enough that you can have access to things that you need.” - Amber PerrodinAmber Perrodin, a dedicated artist and community manager at The Medium, was accompanied on the podcast by the talented Breaking Habits crew, including Andy Nguyen, Logan Campbell, Van Deng, and Chung Nguyen, discussing the impact of the Creative Exchange Fund in Northwest Arkansas.The Breaking Habits crew founded in 2005 has been immersed in the hip-hop and break-dancing scene in Northwest Arkansas, inspiring others to discover their own creative potential. Each member brings their unique story and experience to the table, showcasing the transformative power of art and its ability to shape individual lives. What you will learn in this episode:Gain insights into the impact of the Creative Exchange Fund on empowering artists in Northwest Arkansas.Learn from the captivating story of the Breaking Habits Crew, encouraging others to tap into their inner superpowers.Realize the essential connection between strong communities and the success of artists in Northwest Arkansas.Examine the function of The Medium as a haven for artists to express their creativity.Discover the role of collaborative partnerships in fostering a flourishing artistic community in Northwest Arkansas.All this and more on this episode of the I am Northwest Arkansas podcast. Important Links and Mentions on the Show*Email Amber PerrodinWebsite for Creative Exchange FundCreative Exchange Fund on InstagramCreative Exchange Fund on FacebookCheck out Cache's Creative Exchange Fund for funding opportunities for artists and creatives in Northwest Arkansas.Visit The Medium in Springdale, Arkansas, to see the creative hub that hosts the CXF program.Consider applying for the upcoming year of the Creative Exchange Fund if you have a creative project to showcase.Check out Breaking Habits crew on social media to see their performances and learn more about their story.Attend local events and performances to support the arts community in Northwest Arkansas.Consider taking dance classes or trying out a new art form to unleash your own innate superpower.Tune in to KUAF 91.3 FM to listen to the I Am Northwest Arkansas podcast on Ozarks at Large.This episode is sponsored by*Signature Bank of Arkansas "Community Banking at
DealQuest Community - just recently news of a failed merger surfaced, piquing the interest of my team, and ignited a thorough analysis. The culprits? First Horizon and TD Bank.I want to dive into the specifics of this particular deal, explore its implications for First Horizon and broader market conditions, and extract lessons that could be vital for you, our audience, who are constantly navigating the M&A landscape. THE DEAL TD Bank and First Horizon announced plans to merge not too long ago. As the proposed blueprint suggested, TD Bank would essentially take over First Horizon. Fast forward, however, to the early days of May, a twist unraveled: The much-anticipated merger fell through. This merger agreement was initially anchored at an offer price of $25 a share. Usually, the logic in public deals such as this is that the offer price exceeds the current trading value of the seller's shares. Therefore, it's likely that First Horizon's shares were trading below the $25 mark when TD Bank made its offer. The original offer from TD Bank occurred before significant shifts in the industry, including the unfortunate incidents with Signature Bank and First Republic. These events and others contributed to a decline in bank valuations and a surge in market concerns. While it seems that we've avoided major industry contagion for now, the share prices of banks have been under pressure. THE “BREAKUP CLAUSE” This situation points to the presence of a "breakup clause." In essence, a “breakup clause” is a safeguard for the selling party. If the buying party decides to walk away from the deal after an agreement is signed, they need to compensate the seller, barring any significant issues or breaches of covenant by the selling party. In the context of this failed merger, the $200 million in cash and $25 million reimbursement likely stems from a breakup clause. The intent behind such a clause is to protect the selling party, which, in a public deal, can face severe repercussions if a deal falls through. THE AFTERMATH The aftermath of a failed merger isn't always as simple as one might think; it's not just a cut-your-losses-and-move-on, there can be some serious implications after a failed merger or acquisitions. In the case of TD Bank and First Horizon, what's even more startling about the fallout from this failed merger is First Horizon's share price. Post-announcement of the broken deal, First Horizon's shares plummeted by 40%, from $15 to just below $9. It's not certain if the share price decreased due to the failed merger or was influenced by recent events in the banking industry. Despite this failed merger having proved to be a roller coaster for First Horizon and TD Bank, it serves as a crucial learning experience for all of us in the deal-making business. It's a stark reminder of how quickly market landscapes can change and how important it is to embed protective measures within agreements to safeguard against unforeseen circumstances. *** Corey Kupfer is an expert strategist, negotiator, and dealmaker. He has more than 35 years of professional deal-making and negotiating experience. Corey is a successful entrepreneur, attorney, consultant, author, and professional speaker. He is deeply passionate about deal-driven growth. He is also the creator and host of the DealQuest Podcast. If you want to find out how deal-ready you are, take the Deal-Ready Assessment today!
Subscribe to The Realignment to access our exclusive Q&A episodes and support the show: https://realignment.supercast.com/.REALIGNMENT NEWSLETTER: https://therealignment.substack.com/PURCHASE BOOKS AT OUR BOOKSHOP: https://bookshop.org/shop/therealignmentEmail Us: realignmentpod@gmail.comFoundation for American Innovation: https://www.thefai.org/posts/lincoln-becomes-faiDirector Chopra's Anti-Monopoly Summit Remarks: https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/newsroom/prepared-remarks-cfpb-director-rohit-chopra-2023-american-economic-liberties-project-anti-monopoly-summit/Rohit Chopra, Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and former FTC Commissioner, joins The Realignment. Director Chopra and Marshall discuss the history of America's anti-monopolist tradition, how new FTC Commissioners ended decades of governmental inaction in 2018, the need to aggressively enforce laws on the books, how anti-monopoly policy can create strange ideological alliances, and the lessons from the recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic.
David Rosenberg, a well-known economist, believes that the United States is in a recessionary bear market. He predicts that the S&P 500 will eventually bottom at 3100, and he has positioned his personal portfolio accordingly. Rosenberg's predictions are based on his analysis of the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle, which he believes will lead to a recession. He also points to the recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic as evidence that the economy is weakening. Rosenberg's views are in contrast to those of many other economists, who believe that the Federal Reserve can engineer a soft landing. However, Rosenberg's track record suggests that he is worth listening to. In 2007, he predicted the subprime mortgage crisis, which turned into the Global Financial Crisis. Investors who are concerned about the economy should pay attention to Rosenberg's predictions. They may want to consider reducing their equity exposure and increasing their cash holdings. Recessions & financial crises go hand in hand after Federal Reserve tightening cycles. Outspoken economist Dave Rosenberg sees evidence of both and advises defensive investments WEALTHTRACK 1947 broadcast on May 19, 2023 --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/wealthtrack/support
Dr. Chris Payne, Chief Economist of Peninsula Real Estate explained what he made of these numbers - is that too low a prediction? Plus, we hear from John Lyons of Espace Real Estate to ask if there's been a slowdown in the property market. And, we hear from Sharif El Bedawi- the ex-Silicon Valley investors who's bringing the V-C spirit to Dubai.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
With the recent closures of First Republic Bank, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank – three of the top twenty largest banks in the country, it's timely to have a discussion about this topic, share my perspective on the opportunity to acquire assets from these unfortunate situations, and bust some myths and false narratives. Bank failure occurs when a bank becomes unable to meet its financial obligations and is unable to repay depositors and creditors. When a bank's assets, such as loans and investments, significantly decrease in value or become illiquid, while its liabilities, such as deposits and debts, remain unchanged, the imbalance in the bank's financial position can lead to insolvency and, ultimately, the closure of the bank. Several factors can contribute to bank failures. These include poor management decisions, excessive risk-taking, economic downturns, asset bubbles, and inadequate risk management practices. Additionally, external factors such as economic cycles, regulatory changes, sudden shifts in market conditions, or unexpected shocks to the financial system contribute to the vulnerability of banks. Bank failures can have severe repercussions, including the loss of depositors' funds, disruptions in the local economy, and broader systemic risks that can impact the stability of the entire financial system. And it's important to know that they are not confined to any particular region or type of bank. They can occur in both developed and developing economies, and have affected large multinational banks as well as smaller local institutions. If there's a specific topic you'd like me to cover with the TidBits series or a guest you'd like to recommend for an interview, please share with us via an email to kalyani@firstliencapital.com. If you're interested in investing with First Lien Capital LP please connect with me at bill@firstliencapital.com or go to firstliencapital.com and press the INVEST button to be contacted by our team. To learn more, visit:https://billbymel.com/Listen to more episodes on Mission Matters:https://missionmatters.com/author/bill-bymel/
The executives speak publicly for the first time since the two banks failed. Plus: The FTC moves to block a major pharmaceutical company merger. And U.S. retail sales were up in April. Danny Lewis reports. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
There are multiple congressional hearings underway today to take a look back at what happened with the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank earlier this year. In the Senate, we’re hearing from former executives of those banks. In the House of Representatives, the Federal Reserve’s top banking watchdog and other regulators are speaking. Also today: we have the latest data on retail sales. Consumers appear to be holding up pretty strong. And lastly, why you might be paying more for flood insurance.
There are multiple congressional hearings underway today to take a look back at what happened with the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank earlier this year. In the Senate, we’re hearing from former executives of those banks. In the House of Representatives, the Federal Reserve’s top banking watchdog and other regulators are speaking. Also today: we have the latest data on retail sales. Consumers appear to be holding up pretty strong. And lastly, why you might be paying more for flood insurance.
President Biden & Congressional leaders meet again about the debt ceiling deadline, Senate hearing with former SVB & Signature Bank executives on their banks' failures, interview with Washington Post's Cat Zakrzewski on a Senate hearing with the CEO of Open AI, maker of ChapGPT, on artificial intelligence risks (36). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
President Joe Biden held a second closed-door meeting on the nation's $31 trillion debt ceiling. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) says a deal to raise the limit is possible by the end of the week. Lawmakers on Tuesday confronted the former CEOs of failed Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank on bank mismanagement and profitable stock sales. The House Judiciary Committee asked special counsel John Durham to testify on his report. NTD spoke with a former federal prosecutor for his analysis of the report. ⭕️ Watch in-depth videos based on Truth & Tradition at Epoch TV
In DC, the Senate Banking Committee is prepared to hear testimony from former Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank executives. Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH) shares his concerns about regulator oversight in the regional banking crisis, and he weighs in on the debt ceiling showdown. White House energy advisor Amos Hochstein discusses the administration's newly announced plans to buy three million barrels of oil to replenish the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Plus, the U.S. Virgin Islands issued a subpoena to Elon Musk in connection with the Jeffrey Epstein lawsuit, and Home Depot's rough quarter is weighing on the Dow. In this episode:Amos Hochstein @AmosHochstein Sen. J.D. Vance, @JDVance1Eamon Javers, @EamonJaversJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkBecky Quick, @BeckyQuickAndrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkinKatie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie
Americans needn't worry about the safety of their money at the bank, financial and investment expert David Bahnsen says.Three large American banks have collapsed since the beginning of the year, but “there's almost nothing in common at all with these three banks closing, relative to all the 2008 closings,” says Bahnsen, founder and chief investment officer of the wealth management company The Bahnsen Group. When banks fail, as they did in 2008, it's usually because of “people not paying back something they owe,” Bahnsen says, adding that's not the case with the recent bank failures. Bahnsen, whose company manages more than $4 billion in client assets, says Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank were “totally ill-prepared for the idea of interest rates flying higher, as they have.” Bahnsen joins “The Daily Signal Podcast” to explain the effect the Federal Reserve's interest-rate hikes have had on America's banks and what it means for the financial health of the country. Bahnsen also explains why he, as a JPMorgan Chase shareholder, has proposed a resolution calling on the bank to investigate whether it is discriminating against clients because of their religious or political views. Relevant LinksColorado Wants to Force Her To Create LGBTQ Wedding Websites: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfk1q-EXNDE Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
About the Show:"I always tell people that we are the sum total of our experiences.” - Dana NeelyDana Neely's passion for barbecue brought her back to her home state of Arkansas after years spent in Seattle. She had been perfecting her unique barbecue recipes on the West Coast, but it was the sense of collaboration within the Northwest Arkansas culinary scene that attracted her to establish her own barbecue joint, Girls Gone Barbecue. Through connections like Chef Matt Cooper and Nate Walls, Dana found herself immersed in a community of talented chefs eager to support one another in their collective pursuit of culinary excellence. Her restaurant offers an array of delicious options catering to diverse dietary preferences, showcasing her commitment to innovation and inclusivity.What you will learn in this episode:Delve into the inspiring journey of Dana Neely's evolution from capturing moments as a photographer to creating mouthwatering barbecue.Unravel the magic of Neely's exclusive Arkansas-style barbecue sauce and dry rub recipes.Broaden your horizons with palate-pleasing unique dishes, featuring vegan options and distinct Delta-style barbecue techniques.Gain insight into the collaborative spirit of northwest Arkansas' culinary scene and how it fosters growth and innovation.Consider the expansion possibilities for Girls Gone Barbecue through franchising and catering opportunities.All this and more on this episode of the I am Northwest Arkansas podcast. Important Links and Mentions on the Show* Email Dana Neely Website for Girls Gone BarbequeGirls Gone Barbeque on InstagramGirls Gone Barbeque on FacebookGirls Gone Barbeque on TwitterThis episode is sponsored by*Signature Bank of Arkansas "Community Banking at its Best!" Try Canva For Free Today! Northwest Arkansas Council - "Life Works Here!" *Note: some of the resources mentioned may be affiliate links. This means we get paid a commission (at no extra cost to you) if you use that link to make a purchase.Connect more with I am Northwest Arkansas:Grab our Newsletter Email Us at hello@iamnorthwestarkansas.comConnect With Our Facebook Page Connect With Our Twitter Connect With Our Instagram Connect With Our
This spring, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed and First Republic Bank failed and was sold to J.P. Morgan Chase. The $532 billion in assets of these banks exceeded the inflation adjusted value of assets of the 25 banks that failed in 2008. Why did these banks fail? Are they the first three failures in what could be a string of bank collapses? Or did the action of regulators stem the crisis? What policies are needed to make banks more resilient? EconoFact Chats welcomes back Jeremy Stein to discuss these issues. Jeremy is a Professor of Economics at Harvard University. He was a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve from 2012 to 2014, and served as a senior advisor to the Treasury Secretary and on the staff of the National Economic Council during the global financial crisis.
Do recent bank failures present an opportunity in the stock market? We discuss what to watch for and what to watch out for. Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic, other regional banks - are there opportunities among the survivors?
Director of Retail Deposits Adam Stockton and Director of Commercial Peter Serene join host Rutger van Faassen to discuss all things deposits in light of recent market changes. Rate and subscribe! | Learn more at curinos.com | Questions or feedback? Email us at finsights@curinos.com
Stories of historically atypical interest rate hikes, and multiple bank failures, concerned many advisors in the early days of 2023. Join us for the second (and final) part of our discussion with Casey Dylan, CIMA®, Consultant, and the host of Unfiltered Finance, Tom Romano, Head of Strategic Relationships, as we discuss some of the more prominent news events, and their effects, during Q1 of this year. If you have any questions or would like more information, reach out to us at https://symmetrypartners.com/contact-us/ You can also find us on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, and LinkedIn. As always, we remain invested in your goals. Symmetry Partners, LLC, is an investment advisory firm registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The firm only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Registration of an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. No one should assume that future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, product or non-investment related content made reference to directly or indirectly in this material will be profitable. As with any investment strategy, there is the possibility of profitability as well as loss. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may not be reflective of current opinions or positions. Please note the material is provided for educational and background use only. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this material serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice. Transcript: 0 00:00:01.900 --> 00:00:07.800 Let's let's 1 00:00:07.600 --> 00:00:10.600 shift a little bit to some of the headlines that we saw because there was 2 00:00:10.600 --> 00:00:15.100 there's quite a bit. It felt like it was a very long quarter. Yeah, and you 3 00:00:14.200 --> 00:00:17.700 know as we did see some positive results, but can we 4 00:00:17.600 --> 00:00:21.300 talk a little bit about just in general some of the headlines that we saw and 5 00:00:20.600 --> 00:00:25.000 then specifically I want to take a dive into inflation 6 00:00:23.600 --> 00:00:26.700 and then the banks because that was 7 00:00:26.700 --> 00:00:30.200 a really big headline. We got a lot of a lot of calls regarding that look 8 00:00:29.800 --> 00:00:31.200 there there were 9 00:00:33.300 --> 00:00:35.900 Striking headlines around things like 10 00:00:36.800 --> 00:00:40.800 shocks to sort of economic surprises on 11 00:00:42.000 --> 00:00:45.300 job numbers to what was going on with the FED 12 00:00:45.100 --> 00:00:48.400 to Banks not just near the United States but 13 00:00:48.100 --> 00:00:51.600 internationally and yet what you see is kind 14 00:00:51.400 --> 00:00:55.000 of, you know markets do what they do in in any given day. They respond 15 00:00:54.600 --> 00:00:57.900 to that but they are quick to incorporate the news 16 00:00:57.600 --> 00:01:01.300 and get back to pricing on other kinds of things. And 17 00:01:00.600 --> 00:01:05.200 so I would say as a micro dosage of 18 00:01:04.600 --> 00:01:08.400 what the ride is for investors. It's 19 00:01:07.800 --> 00:01:11.000 this it's if you can sort of 20 00:01:11.000 --> 00:01:14.400 take in stride that there are going to be lots of headlines and 21 00:01:14.100 --> 00:01:17.500 that there may be short-term Market reactions headlines over the 22 00:01:17.400 --> 00:01:21.000 longer term that kind of gets filtered out on 23 00:01:20.400 --> 00:01:23.700 the upside and downside right and what you get back 24 00:01:23.400 --> 00:01:26.600 to is. Hey one of my paying for right I'm paying for some kind 25 00:01:26.500 --> 00:01:30.100 of future earnings or I'm lending with some expectation that 26 00:01:29.800 --> 00:01:33.800 I'm going to get paid and income stream based on that and that tends 27 00:01:33.000 --> 00:01:36.700 to drown out the short term noise and now 28 00:01:36.400 --> 00:01:40.200 you're back to factors of how much did I pay did I 29 00:01:40.100 --> 00:01:41.700 get my earnings did I not is 30 00:01:42.000 --> 00:01:45.600 We're upside to that right and markets are kind of a weighing machine 31 00:01:45.500 --> 00:01:48.900 in that sense. Right? They're weighing those earnings. They're weighing those 32 00:01:48.900 --> 00:01:52.200 cash flows in the future. Right? So I would say 33 00:01:52.000 --> 00:01:55.900 lots of lots of news lots of scurrying 34 00:01:55.000 --> 00:01:56.300 around the news. 35 00:01:57.100 --> 00:02:01.000 You know at the end of the day we're sort of where we started one 36 00:02:00.100 --> 00:02:03.200 of the headlines and one of the things that we've been getting a lot 37 00:02:03.200 --> 00:02:06.300 of questions about I'm talking about is is inflation. I know we've spent some time 38 00:02:06.200 --> 00:02:09.600 already today talking about that. We did 39 00:02:09.400 --> 00:02:13.500 see US inflation ease a little bit but there 40 00:02:13.100 --> 00:02:16.300 might be some pressures coming up. So if you don't mind commenting on that, that 41 00:02:16.100 --> 00:02:19.200 would be great. Yeah, you bet. I think it's helpful to kind of 42 00:02:19.200 --> 00:02:21.200 take a step back and look at 43 00:02:22.200 --> 00:02:25.700 With the onset of the pandemic right everything kind 44 00:02:25.400 --> 00:02:28.800 of shut down and then when we went to reopen things back up 45 00:02:28.600 --> 00:02:32.000 factories didn't necessarily open up, especially in 46 00:02:31.900 --> 00:02:36.600 places like China right for some time. Right and the the 47 00:02:35.300 --> 00:02:39.700 supply chain was suddenly 48 00:02:38.300 --> 00:02:41.500 constrained and so we 49 00:02:41.300 --> 00:02:44.300 had a hard time getting Goods, right but there was a lot 50 00:02:44.300 --> 00:02:48.400 of demand because we were at home, you know person stuff and so 51 00:02:48.200 --> 00:02:51.700 as you have demand shoot up but supplies constrained 52 00:02:51.200 --> 00:02:54.500 price shoots up, right? That's just sort of Economics 101 53 00:02:54.200 --> 00:02:57.400 and we saw that and at the time, you know, the Fed was quick 54 00:02:57.200 --> 00:03:00.500 to say, hey, look we think this is transitory think eventually things 55 00:03:00.200 --> 00:03:03.700 settle down we get manufacturing back online. We work 56 00:03:03.400 --> 00:03:06.700 out the bugaboos associated with the supply chain 57 00:03:06.500 --> 00:03:09.600 and those the price pressure doesn't inflationary pressure should come back 58 00:03:09.500 --> 00:03:13.100 down over time and in large respect 59 00:03:12.800 --> 00:03:16.500 this seems to have proven that out right? 60 00:03:15.800 --> 00:03:19.100 I think what really got the fed's 61 00:03:18.800 --> 00:03:21.800 attention and started them down the path. 62 00:03:22.200 --> 00:03:26.100 Of really dramatically raising rates was 63 00:03:25.400 --> 00:03:28.700 the fact that well while goods were 64 00:03:28.500 --> 00:03:31.800 sort of starting to come back down. It was 65 00:03:31.600 --> 00:03:34.900 inflation associated with services that was going up. And 66 00:03:34.600 --> 00:03:37.800 in fact, what we've seen is good coming down 67 00:03:37.600 --> 00:03:40.700 the the overall inflation of 68 00:03:40.600 --> 00:03:44.500 the CPI number or that PC number coming down from its 69 00:03:44.100 --> 00:03:48.100 highs last summer, but while that's been happening underneath 70 00:03:48.900 --> 00:03:52.300 Inflation associated with Services has continued to 71 00:03:52.100 --> 00:03:52.600 go up. 72 00:03:53.200 --> 00:03:56.500 And so even if we're at a point now where the latest inflationary readings 73 00:03:56.200 --> 00:03:58.100 are half of what they were. 74 00:03:58.900 --> 00:04:00.400 Just a year ago this time. 75 00:04:01.600 --> 00:04:05.500 Services inflation is up and continuing to go the wrong direction. Right? And 76 00:04:05.200 --> 00:04:08.400 so the the FED has said hey, look 77 00:04:08.200 --> 00:04:11.400 first of all, we don't look at kind of the overall CPI number. We don't 78 00:04:11.300 --> 00:04:15.500 that's not how we measure it. We're looking at these underlying statuents and 79 00:04:14.900 --> 00:04:18.600 they prefer the the pce as 80 00:04:18.200 --> 00:04:21.300 opposed to CPI, but they're all just kind of ways of measuring, you know 81 00:04:21.300 --> 00:04:24.900 inflation in the economy. And so 82 00:04:24.400 --> 00:04:27.400 one of the ways that we've looked at 83 00:04:27.400 --> 00:04:30.600 this for a very long time is core CPI, right? We're stripping out the 84 00:04:30.400 --> 00:04:34.100 volatility of energy and food because those tend to move around so much and then 85 00:04:33.900 --> 00:04:37.300 you know, we've been introduced to this concept that not 86 00:04:37.000 --> 00:04:40.500 only is it core CPI, but it's core Goods CPI and 87 00:04:40.200 --> 00:04:44.100 course Services CPI. And so the FED now is very focused 88 00:04:43.600 --> 00:04:48.000 on core Services looking at Services minus 89 00:04:47.000 --> 00:04:50.400 services for energy and food and what 90 00:04:50.100 --> 00:04:54.000 we see are again our sort of troubling Trends 91 00:04:53.100 --> 00:04:56.500 around services and housing 92 00:04:56.100 --> 00:04:59.400 in terms of the impact that that 93 00:04:59.200 --> 00:05:01.400 has now pushing. 94 00:05:01.600 --> 00:05:04.700 Up or holding up those inflation numbers and if they 95 00:05:04.600 --> 00:05:08.100 continue on the wrong direction, that's what the fed's concern about and the 96 00:05:07.600 --> 00:05:11.500 the whammy that potentially comes 97 00:05:10.600 --> 00:05:13.900 from if Services costs go 98 00:05:13.700 --> 00:05:16.800 up at some point that starts to impact Goods costs as 99 00:05:16.700 --> 00:05:20.600 well. Right? And so if you look at this where the the white 100 00:05:19.800 --> 00:05:23.200 bars are coming down, right the the concern 101 00:05:22.800 --> 00:05:26.400 is that Services cost the cost of producing goods 102 00:05:25.800 --> 00:05:29.200 and delivering them right is going to impact the the cost 103 00:05:29.000 --> 00:05:32.500 that gets passed through and goods start to come back up and there's sort 104 00:05:32.100 --> 00:05:35.500 of a double double impact of inflation if 105 00:05:35.400 --> 00:05:38.700 you will and that's what I think the FED is incredibly concerned about 106 00:05:38.500 --> 00:05:41.600 and and why they say look we're gonna ratchet rates up 107 00:05:41.600 --> 00:05:45.700 and we're gonna keep them up there long enough until we're convinced that we've we've 108 00:05:44.800 --> 00:05:48.000 stamped this out and brought it back down to a level that's 109 00:05:47.800 --> 00:05:51.000 livable because the last thing you want to do is take your foot off the pedal. 110 00:05:51.800 --> 00:05:55.300 And then suddenly have a Resurgence of these 111 00:05:55.000 --> 00:05:58.300 inflation Air Forces which that we've saw 112 00:05:58.000 --> 00:06:01.400 in the 70s, right if you think about what we've we've 113 00:06:01.200 --> 00:06:04.800 seen this show before the early 70s the FED raising 114 00:06:04.500 --> 00:06:08.400 rates taking their their foot off the brake, I guess and then 115 00:06:08.000 --> 00:06:11.900 Resurgence of inflation in the late 70s stagflationary 116 00:06:11.200 --> 00:06:14.500 environment and it took the volcker FED in the 80s 117 00:06:14.200 --> 00:06:17.800 taken rates to places. We'd never seen until recently right to 118 00:06:17.400 --> 00:06:20.700 to stamp that out. And so I think the FED 119 00:06:20.500 --> 00:06:24.000 is taking a lesson from history and said we don't want to repeat those mistakes. 120 00:06:23.600 --> 00:06:27.000 We're gonna stay on this until we're sure right absolutely and 121 00:06:26.600 --> 00:06:30.200 speaking of the fed and it says been a very fast pace 122 00:06:29.600 --> 00:06:32.800 in terms of Ray hikes. Yeah 123 00:06:32.600 --> 00:06:36.200 historically exactly exactly so 124 00:06:35.800 --> 00:06:40.400 they they have meant business and I 125 00:06:39.500 --> 00:06:44.100 think Market participants repeatedly made 126 00:06:43.200 --> 00:06:47.000 the mistake of not taking 127 00:06:46.700 --> 00:06:48.200 the FED at its word. 128 00:06:48.700 --> 00:06:51.900 Right and and equities markets have 129 00:06:51.700 --> 00:06:54.900 definitely gotten well ahead of the FED particularly at 130 00:06:54.700 --> 00:06:58.600 the end of last year and maybe potentially the beginning of this year bond markets 131 00:06:58.200 --> 00:07:01.500 now are pricing that the FED 132 00:07:01.200 --> 00:07:05.000 will pull back and yet the FED is saying no. No, we're we're 133 00:07:04.600 --> 00:07:08.600 gonna raise rates and we're gonna keep them there longer and that's 134 00:07:07.600 --> 00:07:10.900 you know, we have no expectation that we would 135 00:07:10.800 --> 00:07:14.300 pull back from that anytime this year. Right? So the market 136 00:07:13.800 --> 00:07:17.000 participants are our forward looking forward pricing, but 137 00:07:16.900 --> 00:07:20.500 they seem to not be taking the FED at its word. I think that's pulled 138 00:07:20.100 --> 00:07:23.800 back a little bit in February and March we started to 139 00:07:23.500 --> 00:07:25.400 see Market participants kind of get their arms around. 140 00:07:26.300 --> 00:07:29.400 Actually be coming and we see you know 141 00:07:29.400 --> 00:07:33.400 investors like hedge funds really sort of looking at volatility 142 00:07:32.400 --> 00:07:36.000 Bets with the expectation that hey this 143 00:07:35.600 --> 00:07:39.300 may get a little more turbulent before it gets better. Right? So 144 00:07:39.000 --> 00:07:44.200 there's a lot of sort of now Market positioning 145 00:07:43.200 --> 00:07:46.500 for the fed me 146 00:07:46.300 --> 00:07:49.800 actually do this and we may see an economic pullback, 147 00:07:49.300 --> 00:07:52.800 but that may not necessarily mean the FED response to 148 00:07:52.800 --> 00:07:56.500 it. Right? I think again as we look forward the 149 00:07:55.900 --> 00:08:00.100 the way that I would think about this as an investor as a the 150 00:07:59.200 --> 00:08:03.000 stock market is not the economy, right? The 151 00:08:02.400 --> 00:08:06.200 markets are definitely driven by 152 00:08:05.700 --> 00:08:09.400 interest rates and fed movement 153 00:08:09.000 --> 00:08:10.200 and yet 154 00:08:12.500 --> 00:08:16.400 Much like headlines the markets take that 155 00:08:16.200 --> 00:08:20.200 news and stride it gets built into prices and there 156 00:08:19.800 --> 00:08:23.000 may be short-term volatility associated with this but if you look out over 157 00:08:22.800 --> 00:08:26.300 time, you know, what what do we see going back to 158 00:08:26.000 --> 00:08:29.200 you know, as long as we have records 1926 and Beyond 159 00:08:29.000 --> 00:08:32.600 right Imperial heads when interest rates 160 00:08:32.300 --> 00:08:36.300 go up interest rates go down inflationary environments disinflationary environments 161 00:08:35.900 --> 00:08:40.100 recessionary environments across all of those things markets 162 00:08:38.900 --> 00:08:42.400 tend to produce a return 163 00:08:42.100 --> 00:08:45.700 of you know, seven to ten percent average annual 164 00:08:45.400 --> 00:08:49.000 you don't get that every year but you get on average over time and it's 165 00:08:48.700 --> 00:08:52.200 paying you for those cash flows so much like, 166 00:08:51.900 --> 00:08:55.100 you know, the all the comments that we've had prior to 167 00:08:54.900 --> 00:08:55.200 this. 168 00:08:56.500 --> 00:08:59.900 As investors, it's important to sort of take in its Stride 169 00:08:59.800 --> 00:09:02.900 Right put some blinders on there may be volatility associated with 170 00:09:02.800 --> 00:09:06.400 this ride. You will get wet on this ride. Right but we 171 00:09:05.800 --> 00:09:08.900 promise you'll come out in the other side, right and when you do, 172 00:09:08.800 --> 00:09:11.900 you know, the markets will get back to doing what they 173 00:09:11.800 --> 00:09:15.000 do, which is you know, paying you for putting Capital to work 174 00:09:15.000 --> 00:09:18.400 in there. So so that I would say again we watch these 175 00:09:18.100 --> 00:09:21.300 things. We we sort of especially working 176 00:09:21.100 --> 00:09:24.200 in the industry. It's a incumbent upon 177 00:09:24.100 --> 00:09:27.200 us to have some product prognostication about where this could 178 00:09:27.100 --> 00:09:30.800 be headed at the end of the day what we think matters very little it's 179 00:09:30.100 --> 00:09:33.300 what actually happens and we build portfolios to 180 00:09:33.100 --> 00:09:36.600 be as robust as we can because Anything Could Happen. Yeah, that's that's fantastic. 181 00:09:36.100 --> 00:09:39.300 And that's a really good way of putting it. We don't know what's 182 00:09:39.100 --> 00:09:40.000 happening, but we're 183 00:09:41.000 --> 00:09:45.000 We're invested in a way to endure what's to come? Right? Exactly. So 184 00:09:44.100 --> 00:09:47.500 one of the headlines that we we spent 185 00:09:47.300 --> 00:09:50.700 a lot of time talking to advisors and investors alike is the 186 00:09:50.600 --> 00:09:54.200 the notion of the banks and we saw from Silicon Valley 187 00:09:54.000 --> 00:09:56.100 and First Republic and a few others. 188 00:09:57.000 --> 00:10:00.200 I think it's a it's a risk reward story. But I also think 189 00:10:00.000 --> 00:10:04.400 this is the diversification story there. I'd love to hear your thoughts. Yeah. Well, yes, 190 00:10:03.700 --> 00:10:05.500 I think 191 00:10:06.600 --> 00:10:08.300 the the situation with the banks 192 00:10:09.300 --> 00:10:13.300 has a lot to do with other stuff, right? Yes, the 193 00:10:12.600 --> 00:10:15.800 the banks were quick to come out and say well this 194 00:10:15.600 --> 00:10:18.800 is a consequence of how rapidly the FED is 195 00:10:18.600 --> 00:10:22.300 raised interest rates. And this is potentially impaired the 196 00:10:22.200 --> 00:10:25.300 asset base of these Banks and there's no question right over the 197 00:10:25.200 --> 00:10:28.600 course of 2022. You saw the asset base 198 00:10:28.200 --> 00:10:31.500 drop significantly across banks in 199 00:10:31.400 --> 00:10:34.800 general because right so, you know first principles, 200 00:10:34.400 --> 00:10:37.500 what is a bank do they take money in when they 201 00:10:37.500 --> 00:10:41.100 take that money in as a deposit? It's a liability to them. Right? 202 00:10:40.500 --> 00:10:43.600 So they take that liability and they got to go match it up 203 00:10:43.500 --> 00:10:47.000 with an asset and they do that either by making loans and if 204 00:10:46.900 --> 00:10:50.800 they can't make enough loans, then they got to go buy bonds treasuries. 205 00:10:50.300 --> 00:10:53.800 For instance, right? Yes. That's the old against the 206 00:10:53.300 --> 00:10:56.600 liabilities. So if you if you've got a bank that 207 00:10:56.300 --> 00:10:59.600 has a bunch of bonds that they're holding as an asset 208 00:10:59.300 --> 00:11:03.000 and the value of those bonds dramatically drop. They've lost 209 00:11:02.600 --> 00:11:06.000 a lot of money against the liabilities that 210 00:11:05.900 --> 00:11:08.800 are still where they are, right and 211 00:11:09.200 --> 00:11:13.400 So that's that's the the challenge for 212 00:11:12.900 --> 00:11:13.900 the financial. 213 00:11:15.800 --> 00:11:19.200 sector and it no surprise the financial sector 214 00:11:18.900 --> 00:11:22.600 was sort of the worst performing sector for the first quarter in large 215 00:11:22.400 --> 00:11:23.700 part because of these Dynamics 216 00:11:24.800 --> 00:11:28.300 It was a part of what happened at svb. It was a catalyst 217 00:11:27.800 --> 00:11:31.300 for the bank run that followed but the bank 218 00:11:31.000 --> 00:11:34.500 run followed because of the unique dynamics of 219 00:11:34.400 --> 00:11:38.100 svb, correct? Right and the the failure 220 00:11:37.500 --> 00:11:40.900 of silvergate was 221 00:11:40.500 --> 00:11:44.200 function of crypto and had as 222 00:11:43.800 --> 00:11:47.500 much to do with FTX the failure of FTX, which 223 00:11:47.200 --> 00:11:50.300 was a Ponzi scheme, right? So you have 224 00:11:50.200 --> 00:11:54.300 a lot of kind of very unique situations Signature Bank, 225 00:11:54.100 --> 00:11:58.000 very crypto focused right First Republic the 226 00:11:57.100 --> 00:12:00.900 very very heavily on 227 00:12:00.200 --> 00:12:04.200 the asset side writing interest only mortgages 228 00:12:03.400 --> 00:12:06.700 right in to a degree that other 229 00:12:06.500 --> 00:12:10.500 Banks didn't have some unique characteristics of these Banks which cause 230 00:12:09.900 --> 00:12:13.600 them to be sort of the canary in the coal mine if you will right 231 00:12:12.900 --> 00:12:16.100 and Credit Suisse just 232 00:12:18.000 --> 00:12:21.100 Has struggled for years, right? And this was 233 00:12:21.000 --> 00:12:24.500 just the nail in the coffin form. The concern is are they 234 00:12:24.200 --> 00:12:27.600 the canary in the coal mine or are they just being punished because 235 00:12:27.400 --> 00:12:29.900 the malfeasance and poor management? 236 00:12:31.000 --> 00:12:34.700 And I think the answer is a bit of both, right? So the the 237 00:12:34.400 --> 00:12:38.400 fed and other institutions got 238 00:12:38.000 --> 00:12:41.900 together and said, hey, we got a backstop this thing to keep any contagion 239 00:12:41.300 --> 00:12:45.300 from spreading and assure depositors that 240 00:12:45.200 --> 00:12:48.600 they're deposits are safe, even if the value of the bond the assets 241 00:12:48.200 --> 00:12:51.600 that these banks are holding have dropped down. We the the government 242 00:12:51.200 --> 00:12:54.300 are going to step in and and backstop not just 243 00:12:54.200 --> 00:12:57.300 your 250,000 but everything right that was 244 00:12:57.300 --> 00:13:00.500 the strong message that they sent and that sort of seem to 245 00:13:00.300 --> 00:13:03.600 work, right it calm markets. Thanks for still being sort of reviewed and 246 00:13:03.500 --> 00:13:06.500 I would say look there's there could be more to this story. There could be 247 00:13:06.500 --> 00:13:09.800 other shoes to drop in time. Right? So you'll continue 248 00:13:09.500 --> 00:13:12.600 to watch it. I think as in as a person 249 00:13:12.500 --> 00:13:15.600 who has money at a bank, right am I rushing to pull my money 250 00:13:15.500 --> 00:13:18.800 out? No, I'm fairly confident that you know, 251 00:13:18.800 --> 00:13:21.500 we're we're gonna survive this right now. 252 00:13:22.400 --> 00:13:26.100 Did I say the same thing in 2008 when when I 253 00:13:25.700 --> 00:13:28.900 really thought hey, man, the whole financial system could go down. 254 00:13:28.800 --> 00:13:32.300 These Banks had collapse in Mass. I don't think we're anywhere 255 00:13:31.900 --> 00:13:35.300 near that I think banks are much healthier than than they 256 00:13:35.100 --> 00:13:39.900 were then and I think the issues that they have have to do with treasuries and 257 00:13:39.800 --> 00:13:43.200 the FED has said look, we're gonna step in and provide as much liquidity 258 00:13:42.800 --> 00:13:46.400 as necessary for the banks. So this becomes 259 00:13:45.900 --> 00:13:49.700 a potential issue down the down the pike, right? If 260 00:13:49.200 --> 00:13:52.700 in fact the FED has to step in and provide the 261 00:13:52.300 --> 00:13:55.700 Surplus liquidity to the treasury market, 262 00:13:55.500 --> 00:13:56.800 why might they have to do that? 263 00:13:57.800 --> 00:14:01.000 Well, if for some reason we default on the debt ceiling for instance, 264 00:14:00.800 --> 00:14:04.200 right that could be very problematic and the FED 265 00:14:04.000 --> 00:14:07.200 might have to take aggressive steps in a way that we've 266 00:14:07.100 --> 00:14:11.300 never seen before to step in and try and provide Surplus liquidity 267 00:14:10.700 --> 00:14:14.000 specifically to the treasury market. That would 268 00:14:13.800 --> 00:14:17.300 be a complete roll reversal of where we've been right? That's that's 269 00:14:17.000 --> 00:14:20.900 taking the quantitative tightening off the table and now we're back to quantities, right 270 00:14:20.400 --> 00:14:23.600 so so could things come down the bike that 271 00:14:23.500 --> 00:14:26.900 would cause a, you know, real dislocation to 272 00:14:26.500 --> 00:14:29.900 banking to markets sure it could happen 273 00:14:29.700 --> 00:14:32.900 again. Who knows right? Everybody's got a crystal 274 00:14:32.800 --> 00:14:33.100 ball. 275 00:14:34.100 --> 00:14:37.700 Nobody's usually right spot on about what's gonna happen, but 276 00:14:37.200 --> 00:14:40.400 it's a potential risk that you want. Hey, look this might happen, but 277 00:14:40.300 --> 00:14:41.000 we'll survive. 278 00:14:41.600 --> 00:14:45.200 Yeah, no, absolutely. And as you said before, I mean, it seems like the markets 279 00:14:44.600 --> 00:14:45.300 have. 280 00:14:46.100 --> 00:14:49.600 sort of shrugged off those headlines because we've seen some pretty decent returns 281 00:14:49.100 --> 00:14:52.000 and in q1, but I think you know in 282 00:14:53.200 --> 00:14:56.500 Let's let's go back to the text docs, right? I mean that's what's really 283 00:14:56.300 --> 00:14:57.800 leading the charge here, isn't it? 284 00:14:58.800 --> 00:14:59.000 well 285 00:15:00.000 --> 00:15:01.800 I think there are a lot of Dynamics at play. 286 00:15:02.400 --> 00:15:06.000 But underpinning all of that is risk and reward right? 287 00:15:05.500 --> 00:15:08.800 I mean that at the end of the day, it's that simple 288 00:15:08.600 --> 00:15:11.700 what are the risks and what are the rewards and how much am I 289 00:15:11.600 --> 00:15:15.400 willing to pay for those rewards? And am I underestimating those 290 00:15:15.200 --> 00:15:18.800 risks? Right? So everything is sort of a function of those things 291 00:15:18.600 --> 00:15:22.000 and so I would say look in equities. The the 292 00:15:21.600 --> 00:15:25.200 tech stocks is a risk, right? There's there's certainly reward 293 00:15:25.000 --> 00:15:28.400 there's upside there. We're seeing it in terms of markets, but I think there's risk 294 00:15:28.100 --> 00:15:31.800 right in fixed income. There's potential 295 00:15:31.200 --> 00:15:34.600 risk associated with the yield curve 296 00:15:34.400 --> 00:15:39.000 and what happens with the fed and raising rates in areas, 297 00:15:38.100 --> 00:15:41.600 like financials. There's risks 298 00:15:41.200 --> 00:15:44.800 right associated with that. I think the key 299 00:15:44.500 --> 00:15:47.800 takeaway for that for anybody looking at 300 00:15:47.600 --> 00:15:48.300 it is 301 00:15:49.200 --> 00:15:52.500 Broad diversification not just in 302 00:15:52.200 --> 00:15:55.600 one geography not just inequities not just in fixed income 303 00:15:55.300 --> 00:15:58.300 across factors as much as you 304 00:15:58.300 --> 00:16:01.800 can broadly diversify the more robust your portfolio is to 305 00:16:01.300 --> 00:16:04.200 stand up to any of those unique risks. 306 00:16:04.900 --> 00:16:06.800 And so I would I would say. 307 00:16:08.200 --> 00:16:12.100 That that would be where I would encourage investors to 308 00:16:11.700 --> 00:16:13.100 sort of keep their heads. 309 00:16:14.100 --> 00:16:17.400 I it's always challenging when you have tech stocks doing 310 00:16:17.300 --> 00:16:20.800 as well as they are because they drive 311 00:16:20.400 --> 00:16:23.700 markets you want to be there. You want to participate in it. 312 00:16:23.500 --> 00:16:27.400 There's a a benefit socially to 313 00:16:26.700 --> 00:16:30.100 holding names that people are familiar 314 00:16:29.700 --> 00:16:33.000 with and talk about right if you think about the 315 00:16:32.700 --> 00:16:36.000 fomo experience that people have 316 00:16:35.700 --> 00:16:38.900 missing if you're missing out, right? Yeah, my next 317 00:16:38.900 --> 00:16:41.900 door neighbor. He's he's got Google and apple and they're tear on 318 00:16:41.900 --> 00:16:45.800 the cover off the ball. Never mind. What happened last year right now, I gotta you 319 00:16:45.100 --> 00:16:48.500 know, keep up with the Joneses on that water cooler. Alpha 320 00:16:48.100 --> 00:16:51.600 is what I call that. Yeah water cooler Alpha and I would just 321 00:16:51.300 --> 00:16:54.900 say hey look at the end of the day. We're people right if we 322 00:16:54.600 --> 00:16:57.800 were autonomous, you know Vulcans. This would just be 323 00:16:57.700 --> 00:17:01.000 economics and math and we can figure it all out reality is 324 00:17:00.900 --> 00:17:04.700 we're people and you got to build a portfolio you can live with right as 325 00:17:04.200 --> 00:17:07.300 our as our good friend Phil Henry says, you 326 00:17:07.200 --> 00:17:10.700 got to build a portfolio you can live with and then live with it, right? I think 327 00:17:10.700 --> 00:17:13.400 that's absolutely true. And so you have to take into account. 328 00:17:14.000 --> 00:17:17.700 The the investor psychology associated with this that's 329 00:17:17.000 --> 00:17:20.200 why I think momentum is such a 330 00:17:20.000 --> 00:17:23.500 powerful factor to build into your portfolios 331 00:17:23.000 --> 00:17:26.200 because momentum picks up 332 00:17:26.000 --> 00:17:29.400 these like when tech stocks going to run you end up 333 00:17:29.400 --> 00:17:33.400 owning things like Apple and Google and because they 334 00:17:32.900 --> 00:17:37.100 are demonstrating positive momentum, right? So you you're picking 335 00:17:36.400 --> 00:17:39.800 up some of that you're participating in that upside and I 336 00:17:39.800 --> 00:17:42.900 think as a as an investor, that's that would probably be enough for 337 00:17:42.800 --> 00:17:46.400 me, right? It's a modicum of the things that I everybody else 338 00:17:46.200 --> 00:17:49.400 is holding that that's working but it's also stuff that's not working 339 00:17:49.300 --> 00:17:52.400 because eventually that circles around and that becomes the thing 340 00:17:52.300 --> 00:17:55.600 that's worth. I don't have to try and time it. I'm just holding it and I'm 341 00:17:55.400 --> 00:17:58.600 waiting keeping my powder dry in that area so that when it 342 00:17:58.400 --> 00:18:02.100 does I benefit that that's how I would think about it look again 343 00:18:01.700 --> 00:18:03.100 tech stocks are 344 00:18:04.300 --> 00:18:08.300 The amazing thing about markets is they run longer than you think they should right. They're 345 00:18:07.900 --> 00:18:12.100 fueled by stuff. Sometimes you don't understand and and 346 00:18:11.600 --> 00:18:15.100 in many cases, I think the 347 00:18:14.700 --> 00:18:18.500 tech stock Dynamic is is part 348 00:18:17.800 --> 00:18:21.300 fairy dust, right and you know, 349 00:18:21.200 --> 00:18:24.500 we watched it run for a decade and drive markets, you know 350 00:18:24.500 --> 00:18:28.800 for you know, double digit returns for years because 351 00:18:27.800 --> 00:18:31.900 that happen again, of course, it could right. I'm not 352 00:18:31.900 --> 00:18:35.700 gonna tell you again. I am cautious about the 353 00:18:35.200 --> 00:18:38.600 dynamic being set up looking very similar to 354 00:18:38.500 --> 00:18:42.200 the dynamic that we saw at you know, 2019 2020. 355 00:18:41.700 --> 00:18:45.000 Yeah. No, absolutely and you know that seems like that tech 356 00:18:44.700 --> 00:18:47.900 store keeps popping up. I started my career in the late 90s and that was the 357 00:18:47.800 --> 00:18:50.600 whole story and then I saw a lot of portfolios. 358 00:18:51.300 --> 00:18:55.100 A lot of people see their portfolios blow up but because of overexposure to 359 00:18:55.000 --> 00:18:58.500 to technology and they having a 360 00:18:58.400 --> 00:19:02.400 balanced portfolio Diversified across multiple asset classes regions geographies. 361 00:19:01.900 --> 00:19:05.000 That's that's the best course of action at the 362 00:19:04.900 --> 00:19:10.100 end of the day. So yeah, I think I go back to the the E-Trade 363 00:19:09.300 --> 00:19:12.600 baby, right if you remember the E-Trade baby so easy 364 00:19:12.500 --> 00:19:15.800 baby. Yeah that was born right on the text actually and then 365 00:19:15.600 --> 00:19:18.700 they they put the baby away for a while baby's back right now. I was 366 00:19:18.600 --> 00:19:21.800 a little bit older now, he's out of the wedding, you know hanging out 367 00:19:21.700 --> 00:19:25.200 with this guys and gals but to 368 00:19:24.800 --> 00:19:28.200 me that a Hallmark of a caution, right because 369 00:19:27.900 --> 00:19:32.000 the reality is it's it's easy but 370 00:19:31.600 --> 00:19:34.900 hard right it's not you know, it's not 371 00:19:34.700 --> 00:19:38.500 difficult to say. Hey look broadly based diversification sit still it's 372 00:19:37.700 --> 00:19:41.000 incredibly difficult to do. Yeah, right and that's where 373 00:19:40.900 --> 00:19:45.100 the real benefit of working with financial professionals comes in because everybody 374 00:19:44.300 --> 00:19:47.900 thinks they can do it everybody. They're gonna be Spock 375 00:19:47.300 --> 00:19:50.600 and devoid of emotion, but then the moment of truth comes 376 00:19:51.200 --> 00:19:54.200 The market drops 40% and you're looking at like am I gonna 377 00:19:54.200 --> 00:19:57.400 be able to retire? Right and the fear grips hold and it's 378 00:19:57.200 --> 00:20:00.900 2 am and you're thinking what do I do? Right. That's 379 00:20:00.300 --> 00:20:03.400 when you need to have that dispassionate third party 380 00:20:03.300 --> 00:20:07.700 to pick up the phone and say I want to sell everything. They whoa. Let's 381 00:20:07.100 --> 00:20:11.000 revisit right like is anything changed? Oh the 382 00:20:10.400 --> 00:20:13.700 market drop 40% right has anything in your life changed right? 383 00:20:13.400 --> 00:20:16.800 Maybe that's not the best course of action. Let's take a beat having that 384 00:20:16.600 --> 00:20:20.000 dispassionate a third party to keep you from blowing yourself up 385 00:20:19.700 --> 00:20:23.000 at that exact moment is invaluable. Yeah 386 00:20:22.700 --> 00:20:26.400 and making sure you have the right mix between stocks bonds 387 00:20:26.000 --> 00:20:29.900 and maybe even Alternatives depending on the investor and if someone 388 00:20:29.500 --> 00:20:33.000 can't sleep at night, it's not necessarily that they should take action, 389 00:20:32.600 --> 00:20:35.800 but they might be in the wrong asset allocation for 390 00:20:35.600 --> 00:20:36.200 their 391 00:20:37.300 --> 00:20:41.000 The risk, you know their ability to accept right? Yeah, 392 00:20:40.600 --> 00:20:45.800 it could be that often. What I've 393 00:20:45.500 --> 00:20:48.800 experienced is when it's that it's because the client wanted 394 00:20:48.500 --> 00:20:52.000 more Tech right in their portfolios or more of what's 395 00:20:51.700 --> 00:20:55.100 working, right? And then when that's no longer working, they 396 00:20:54.700 --> 00:20:57.700 can't sleep at night, but cautionary Tale the other 397 00:20:57.700 --> 00:21:01.900 piece of that is we're surrounded by the news 24/7 398 00:21:01.000 --> 00:21:04.600 right? It's just and it's always the whatever 399 00:21:04.100 --> 00:21:07.700 bleeds leads right? And so it's this constant 400 00:21:07.100 --> 00:21:12.200 drum beat of kind of negative stuff. And I think that investors 401 00:21:10.400 --> 00:21:13.700 need a voice. 402 00:21:14.600 --> 00:21:18.000 That that they trust to say. Hey, yeah. No I 403 00:21:17.800 --> 00:21:21.600 saw that too. Yes, that bank went out of business. Here's 404 00:21:20.800 --> 00:21:24.600 why we shouldn't Panic here, right? Yep. We 405 00:21:24.500 --> 00:21:28.300 see all that. Here's why we're gonna stay the course. Here's why we're not gonna Panic. Here's 406 00:21:27.800 --> 00:21:31.200 what let's you know, our long-term goals are and we're in good 407 00:21:31.100 --> 00:21:35.000 shape to hit those. I think that sort of calming reassurance 408 00:21:34.500 --> 00:21:37.700 helps people get back to sleeping at night. Yeah. No, 409 00:21:37.500 --> 00:21:40.800 I agree Casey as always. It's a pleasure talking to you. 410 00:21:40.700 --> 00:21:43.800 Thanks for joining us great having you here and I want to thank all of 411 00:21:43.700 --> 00:21:47.400 our listeners and these feel free to access other podcasts 412 00:21:46.800 --> 00:21:49.800 that we have done and they can be 413 00:21:49.800 --> 00:21:53.300 accessed anywhere you get your podcast. So thanks everyone and we 414 00:21:53.000 --> 00:21:56.800 will see you next time symmetry Partners LLC. 415 00:21:56.100 --> 00:21:59.600 It's an investment advisor firm register with 416 00:21:59.400 --> 00:22:03.300 the Security and Exchange Commission The Firm only transacts 417 00:22:02.400 --> 00:22:06.200 business in states where it is properly registered or 418 00:22:05.900 --> 00:22:09.800 excluded or Exempted from registration requirements 419 00:22:09.000 --> 00:22:12.900 registration of an investment advisor does 420 00:22:12.600 --> 00:22:14.000 not imply any specific. 421 00:22:14.600 --> 00:22:18.100 Of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement 422 00:22:17.700 --> 00:22:21.000 of the firm by the commission. No one should assume 423 00:22:20.800 --> 00:22:24.800 that future performance of any specific investment investment strategy 424 00:22:24.200 --> 00:22:28.100 product or non-investment related content 425 00:22:27.600 --> 00:22:30.800 made reference to directly or indirectly in this 426 00:22:30.600 --> 00:22:32.600 material will be profitable. 427 00:22:33.500 --> 00:22:37.400 As with any investment strategy there is the possibility of profitability 428 00:22:36.600 --> 00:22:39.800 as well as loss due to 429 00:22:39.700 --> 00:22:43.800 various factors including changing market conditions and/or 430 00:22:42.900 --> 00:22:44.800 applicable laws. 431 00:22:45.500 --> 00:22:49.000 Content may not be reflective of current opinions or 432 00:22:48.700 --> 00:22:52.200 positions. Please note the material is 433 00:22:51.700 --> 00:22:55.300 provided for educational and background use only moreover. 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It's been a bumpy ride for banks lately – but context is everything! That's why Josh Bretl, our fearless host and founder of FSR Wealth Strategies, is here to decode the collapse in recent weeks of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic.When we talk about these bank failures and the role of the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.) in bailing them out, it's important to understand the customer base of the institutions involved.You'll learn on this episode of Retirement Equals Freedom about the three key factors that have driven topsy-turvy ledger sheets and exposure for banks in general – but most especially among those serving primarily high-tech players holding lots of cash.Interest rates at an all-time low converged with pandemic stimulus checks that produced a massive influx of cash deposits.What happened next (you'll have to tune in!) had everything to do with how those deposits and other cash holdings were invested and what occurred when interest rates started to rise.Some banks – like those that specialize in serving the tech industry – have proved especially vulnerable. Risk mitigation is critical for just such situations, explains Josh, but you can rest assured that the banking system overall is fundamentally sound.And remember: any account with a balance of up to $250,000 will always be covered by the FDIC.It's been a wake-up call for many of us who have been in an economic “dream state” the past 15 years, but there are fortunately lots of great financial planning strategies to help you navigate our new economic realities.Josh and his Co-Host, Dave Schmidt, also leave you with some bonus advice to help manage the stress: Be kind. Go out there and live your life. We can make the world a better place!Want to understand why it's actually a bad thing for yields on investment vehicles like U.S. Treasury Bonds when interest rates go up? Listen to Episode 19 of Retirement Equals Freedom: "Do Bonds Have a Place in My Portfolio?"If you're feeling queasy about the recent banking roller-coaster, now may be the time to chat with Josh directly. He and the team at FSR Wealth Strategies are dedicated to ensuring your personal finances are safe – and growing! Click here to schedule your free 15-minute call.Finally, here are a few fun links to explore if you'd like to dive into our podcast community:Sign up for FSR's page-turner of a newsletter here.Join the R=F private Facebook group at this link.Visit this pod link resource to get one-click access to your favorite platform for listening to past episodes!You haven't read "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone"? Book 1 is the very best!Click here for more about the behind-the-scenes FDIC negotiations that brokered the deal for Chase Bank to take over First Republic.
In this episode, Alex and Vic talk through the banking issues that have been developing over the past months at banks like Silicone Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and most recently First Republic Bank. They break down what's contributed to the bank failures of past months, and what actions you might want to take in light of the turmoil in this critical industry. Here is a link to a related blog post written by Alex about FDIC insurance, which we referenced in the episode. If you have suggestions for episode topics or would like to give us feedback, we would love to hear from you! Please email us at podcast@woodwardadvisors.com.
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3HL0cPd There are reports about the White House being open to a short-term debt ceiling increase, and I actually don't doubt the White House would do that, or even that they may be willing to give up some energy permitting reform as a trade-off to getting that done. What I am skeptical about is whether or not the Republicans would agree to that (it is possible, but not assured) and then whether or not Democrats would agree to the energy side of that (I consider that improbable). We shall see. 43 Senate Republicans signed a letter over the weekend supporting the House measure for some spending restraints tied to a debt ceiling hike, so even apart from House blockage, if a clean hike is put forward, it faces a filibuster in the Senate. More and more Democrats are wanting some negotiations to take place. A lot of eyes are on what may or may not happen with FDIC coverage in light of the current regional bank saga: Congress sets the statutory limit on FDIC deposit coverage, not the executive branch and not the FDIC itself. The key word here is “statutory.” There is not a lot of Congressional momentum for broadly increasing FDIC limits, though there probably would be if some legislation came forward with nuances (i.e., company payroll accounts, etc.) The FDIC has the authority to name a bank a “systemic risk” and therefore ensure all of its deposits (as they recently did with Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank two months ago, but did not need to do with the First Republic since JP Morgan took over) “Big” banks already have systemic risk classifications (and received various increased regulations out of the Dodd-Frank legislation because of the SIFI classification). The aforementioned labeling of SVB and Signature as “systemic risks” happened ad hoc Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The Patriotically Correct Radio Show with Stew Peters | #PCRadio
Last March, Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank along with one of the largest banks in America, Silicon Valley Bank, all failed in one week. American business man Patrick Byrne joins Stew to illustrate what's next for the collapsing US economy. J6 prisoners continue to rot in tyrannical gulags while D.C. politicians do nothing to help them. J6 prisoner Ryan Samsel interview with Stew from a D.C. gulag and talks about how Republicans in Congress are not helping J6 political prisoners. Has nanotech invaded every aspect of human life? Mat Taylor is back with Stew to detail recent discoveries he observed under a microscope showing nanotech inside dental anesthetics. Recover your vitality, increase your stamina, and boost your testosterone with deer antler velvet at http://Vaccine-Police.com Christopher Key is back to talk about how you can increase your testosterone and make men manly again. Watch this new show NOW at Stewpeters.com! Keep us FREE and ON THE AIR! SUPPORT THE SPONSORS Below! Gun Holsters BIG SALE! Just go to https://www.vnsh.com/stew and get $50 OFF! Get High Quality Prepper Food, NOW with $100 Buckets! Use Promocode STEW for Big Discounts at https://HeavensHarvest.com Taxation is THEFT! Never again voluntarily pay the Washington D.C. Swamp, legally and safely, GUARANTEED when you attend Freedom Law School! Visit: https://FreedomLawSchool.org Protect your retirement, Visit our friends at Goldco! Call 855-706-GOLD or visit https://goldco.com/stew Clean up your AIR with these high quality air filtration systems, and protect yourself from shedding: https://thetriadaer.com/ Support anti-vax activism, free clinic care, and MANLY products like IGF1 visit:https://Vaccine-Police.com Check out https://nootopia.com/StewPeters for help increasing your mental & physical strength to battle the deep-state's KRYPTONITE plot against Americans! Magnesium is VITAL for sleep and stress, Get high quality magnesium and support the show with using Promocode STEWPETERS10: https://magbreakthrough.com/stewpeters Check out: https://kuribl.com/ STEW20 for 20% off your order or premium CBD! BURN FAT, Lose Weight FAST: http://www.vshred.com/stew Can Trump really end the war in Ukraine in 24hrs?!? This is the REAL enemy according to POTUS https://darkagedefense.com/stewpeters exposes the truth!! Eat Carbs, Lose Weight? Go to https://TheHealthyfat.com/stew for MCT products Go Ad-Free, Get Exclusive Content, Become a Premium user: https://www.stewpeters.com/subscribe/ Follow Stew on Gab: https://gab.com/RealStewPeters See all of Stew's content at https://StewPeters.com Check out Stew's store: https://stewmerch.com https://www.givesendgo.com/defendlauren
Original Air Date: May 02, 2023 On Monday, another multi-billion dollar banking institution collapsed — First Republic Bank. Wealthy investors had been pulling out billions of dollars in deposits over the past few weeks, in a 21st-century digital run on the bank. Federal regulators seized its assets, covered $13 billion in losses, and sold it off to JPMorgan Chase. This is now the second-largest bank failure in American history, and the third significant bank failure of the past two months after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. We discuss how this happened and what it means for the U.S. economy with Aaron Klein, Miriam K. Carliner Chair and senior fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution.
Original Air Date: May 02, 2023 On Monday, another multi-billion dollar banking institution collapsed — First Republic Bank. Wealthy investors had been pulling out billions of dollars in deposits over the past few weeks, in a 21st-century digital run on the bank. Federal regulators seized its assets, covered $13 billion in losses, and sold it off to JPMorgan Chase. This is now the second-largest bank failure in American history, and the third significant bank failure of the past two months after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. We discuss how this happened and what it means for the U.S. economy with Aaron Klein, Miriam K. Carliner Chair and senior fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution.
The banking crisis that began in March continues to rapidly evolve. What started with the collapse of Silvergate Capital and Silicon Valley Bank went on to claim Signature Bank and push a vulnerable Credit Suisse into the arms of UBS. This week, another midsize California lender that couldn't find its footing also dropped, as First Republic was acquired by JPMorgan. In the first episode of this season, we catch you up on the turmoil in the financial sector and how it's straining US small businesses that rely on these banks for capital. Bloomberg reporter Mike Sasso takes us to Florida, where a couple that's trying to create a space for people to eat and drink while playing the fast-growing sport of pickleball is struggling to get an affordable loan. The topic dominated discussions at this week's Milken Institute conference in Los Angeles. Host Stephanie Flanders sat down with Milken Institute Chief Economist William Lee, who warns that cutting off small businesses from borrowing would hit the labor market almost directly. However, he says that's exactly what the Federal Reserve wants, as illustrated by a cycle of rate hikes that, after Wednesday's latest increase, may finally be at an end. And finally, Flanders speaks with Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, who said the banking crisis highlights the complacency of regulators when it comes to financial risk. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The banking system is experiencing an change similar to 2008. There have in recent days been a few banks including Silicone Valley Bank, and now First Republic Bank that have collapsed. Investors have gone and taken large amounts of there money out of these banks but some lost money due to having more than the $250,000 covered by Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The Fed, which is SVB's primary regulator, took responsibility for its own lapses, saying that supervisors “did not fully appreciate the extent of the vulnerabilities as Silicon Valley Bank grew in size and complexity” and “did not take sufficient steps” to ensure that SVB address its problems quickly. Silicon Valley Bank's collapse on March 10 — followed two days later by that of Signature Bank — sent shock waves through the global banking system. Regional banks have been hit especially hard, and investors are still bracing for pain six weeks later as First Republic Bank teeters on the edge. ☕Get your coffee today at www.duckrivercoffee.com ⌚Get your watch today at https://royalsportbrand.net/
Follow Ric on Social Media:FacebookTwitterLinkedInInstagramToday, I'll uncover the secrets behind the death of TINA, the stock market trend that emerged during the pandemic, and you'll learn how Apple's partnership with Goldman Sachs is shaking up the banking world with an unheard-of interest rate. I'll also discuss the recent government shutdowns of Silver Gate Bank, Signature Bank, and Silicon Valley Bank, and the impact on the hundreds of billions of dollars withdrawn from U.S. banks in the past month. Discover how the looming federal shutdown could wreak havoc on money market funds and short term treasury bills, and what this all means for your investments.-----Brought to you by:Global X ETFsInvesco QQQSchwab-----Subscribe to podcast updatesThe Truth About Your Future websiteThe Truth About CryptoHave a question for Ric?Disclosure page-----
How US Crypto Regulations Impact Institutional Adoption of Digital Assets This April has had crypto industry stakeholders glued to their phones watching the regulatory developments from the SEC and the proposed legislation around stablecoins. In this episode, Ian Andrews is joined by an avid reader of reports coming from USA regulatory authorities regarding crypto, Sam ten Cate (Managing Director of State Street Digital, State Street). Sam discusses how major bank and crypto exchange failures have had an impact on the regulatory conversation in the US and explains key concepts related to institutional adoption like segregation of activity and tokenization. Sam explains how State Street started innovating in the digital asset space and provides results from their recent survey to show the current state of institutional interest in the crypto market during a very chaotic and regulatory heavy 2023. Minute-by-minute episode breakdown (2:35) – How announcements from the OCC, FDIC and Federal Reserve in the USA set the stage for a chaotic 2023 for the crypto industry (7:15) – Understanding how the crypto industry is connected to the demise of SVB, Signature Bank and Credit Suisse (10:40) – Discussion on how to mitigate risk as a node operator when counterparties are unknown (13:30) -How State Street has innovated from being the first to design the exchange-traded fund (ETF) to navigating the digital asset space (15:45) – What is Segregation of Activity and how it could have kept crypto exchanges from failure (18:35) - Explanation of the FedNow service and what to expect from the launch in 2023 (21:10) - Tokenization of every asset? (28:45) – What is the current state of institutional interest in the crypto market during the crypto winter (30:25) - How will regulations impact the thriving stablecoin ecosystem and the future of digital identity Related resources Check out more resources provided by Chainalysis that perfectly complement this episode of the Public Key. Conference: Chainalysis Links 2023 in Amsterdam (May 9 & 10 - Register Now) Website: State Street: Digital Asset Services and Tokenization Chainalysis Blog: The MiCA Marathon: Are we reaching the finishing line? State Street Report: State Street's Digital Assets and Investment Study 2022-2023 Policy Statement: Policy Statement on Section 9(13) of the Federal Reserve Act Report: BIS: Application of the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructures to stablecoin arrangements Press Release: Joint Statement on Crypto-Asset Risks to Banking Organizations Reports: OCC Interpretive Letters | #1170 | #1172 | #1174 | #1179 YouTube: Chainalysis YouTube page - Links NYC 2023 videos updated Twitter: Chainalysis Twitter: Building trust in blockchain Speakers on today's episode Ian Andrews * Host * (Chief Marketing Officer, Chainalysis) Sam ten Cate (Managing Director of State Street Digital, State Street) This website may contain links to third-party sites that are not under the control of Chainalysis, Inc. or its affiliates (collectively “Chainalysis”). Access to such information does not imply association with, endorsement of, approval of, or recommendation by Chainalysis of the site or its operators, and Chainalysis is not responsible for the products, services, or other content hosted therein. Our podcasts are for informational purposes only, and are not intended to provide legal, tax, financial, or investment advice. Listeners should consult their own advisors before making these types of decisions. Chainalysis has no responsibility or liability for any decision made or any other acts or omissions in connection with your use of this material. Chainalysis does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, suitability or validity of the information in any particular podcast and will not be responsible for any claim attributable to errors, omissions, or other inaccuracies of any part of such material. Unless stated otherwise, reference to any specific product or entity does not constitute an endorsement or recommendation by Chainalysis. The views expressed by guests are their own and their appearance on the program does not imply an endorsement of them or any entity they represent. Views and opinions expressed by Chainalysis employees are those of the employees and do not necessarily reflect the views of the company.
Este lunes fue intervenido el banco californiano First Republic Bank, acto seguido sus activos fueron adquiridos a JPMorgan Chase para evitar un colapso desordenado de la entidad que agrave la crisis bancaria que atraviesa el país tras la quiebra en marzo del Silicon Valley Bank y del Signature Bank. Según ha reconocido la Corporación Federal de Seguros de Depósitos, la venta de los activos al JPMorgan Chase se ha realizado en tiempo récord para proteger a los depositantes. La operación ha costado al comprador 10.600 millones de dólares mientras que al Estado le costará otros 13.000 millones de dólares. Por volumen de activos, unos 230.000 millones de dólares a mediados del mes pasado, la del First Republic es la segunda mayor quiebra de un banco en toda la historia de Estados Unidos, sólo superada por la suspensión de pagos del Washington Mutual a finales de 2008. Fundado a mediados de la década de los ochenta y con sede en San Francisco, el First Republic Bank se dedicaba a la banca privada y poseía una clientela muy selecta. El Gobierno ha querido que la liquidación de la entidad se hiciese rápidamente para que el contagio no se extendiese por el sector, también han querido que supusiese el menor coste posible para las arcas públicas. El First Republic Bank había empezado a tener problemas serios tras la quiebra del Sillicon Valley Bank. Las agencias Fitch y S&P rebajaron la calificación crediticia del banco ya que una alta proporción de sus depósitos no asegurados de clientes de alto poder adquisitivo se estaban marchando en busca de seguridad y mayores rentabilidades por sus ahorros. La dirección del banco comenzó entonces a aplicar un parche tras otro en forma de inyecciones externas de capital para paliar la fuga de depósitos, pero no sirvió de nada. A lo largo del mes de abril salieron del banco depósitos por valor de 100.000 millones de dólares. En Bolsa, entretanto, los títulos de la entidad se derrumbaron casi un 100%. La acción pasó de pagarse a más de 120 dólares a principios de marzo a los 3,5 dólares que cotizaba este lunes. Así las cosas, las autoridades financieras californianas vieron que no les quedaba otra que intervenir. La Corporación Federal de Seguros de Depósitos intervino de urgencia el banco y convocó una subasta exprés a la que concurrieron entidades como PNC Financial Services, Citizen Financial y JPMorgan Chase. Fue este último el que presentó la mejor oferta, es decir, la menos costosa para el fondo de garantía de depósitos. JPMorgan es el banco más grande de Estados Unidos y, por capitalización de mercado, el mayor del mundo. Este rescate no le supone, por lo tanto, un gran esfuerzo, pero tendrá que asumir un coste. A cambio se queda con la mayor parte de los activos del First Republic y con todos los depósitos. De este modo el First Republic desaparece del mapa y sus 84 oficinas repartidas por todo el país pasarán a integrarse en la red comercial del comprador. Las causas de una quiebra y liquidación tan fulminante son parecidas a las del Silicon Valley Bank. Los directivos del banco no tuvieron en cuenta el impacto que iba a tener sobre las cuentas de la entidad la subida repentina de los tipos de interés. Muchos de depositantes no dudaron en marcharse con su dinero a otra parte buscando más rentabilidad. Todo sucedió muy rápido y apenas hubo tiempo de reaccionar. La crisis bancaria del mes de marzo hizo el resto. En La ContraRéplica: - Impuestos finalistas - Yolanda Díaz a Galicia · Canal de Telegram: https://t.me/lacontracronica · “Hispanos. Breve historia de los pueblos de habla hispana”… https://amzn.to/428js1G · “La ContraHistoria de España. Auge, caída y vuelta a empezar de un país en 28 episodios”… https://amzn.to/3kXcZ6i · “Lutero, Calvino y Trento, la Reforma que no fue”… https://amzn.to/3shKOlK · “La ContraHistoria del comunismo”… https://amzn.to/39QP2KE Apoya La Contra en: · Patreon... https://www.patreon.com/diazvillanueva · iVoox... https://www.ivoox.com/podcast-contracronica_sq_f1267769_1.html · Paypal... https://www.paypal.me/diazvillanueva Sígueme en: · Web... https://diazvillanueva.com · Twitter... https://twitter.com/diazvillanueva · Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/fernandodiazvillanueva1/ · Instagram... https://www.instagram.com/diazvillanueva · Linkedin… https://www.linkedin.com/in/fernando-d%C3%ADaz-villanueva-7303865/ · Flickr... https://www.flickr.com/photos/147276463@N05/?/ · Pinterest... https://www.pinterest.com/fernandodiazvillanueva Encuentra mis libros en: · Amazon... https://www.amazon.es/Fernando-Diaz-Villanueva/e/B00J2ASBXM #FernandoDiazVillanueva #firstrepublicbank #jpmorganchase Escucha el episodio completo en la app de iVoox, o descubre todo el catálogo de iVoox Originals
The Federal Reserve published an ironic report on the day that the FDIC took control over the First republic Bank. The report was all about the demise of Silicon Valley Bank. It was a retrospective of sorts on what contributed to the failure of the bank and what shortcomings were present at the bank regulator. The thesis of the report is that the issues of SVB were unique to SVB. But that fails to address why there was a similar problem at Signature Bank. Or what about the problems at Credit Suisse, or First Republic Bank? Under the Dodd Frank Act which was passed in the wake of the GFC the FDIC is supposed to hold 1.3% of all insured deposits in reserve. Well, it's clear that the FDIC has nowhere near that amount being held in reserve. The FDIC balance sheet was consumed by 50% on the SVB transaction. There can't be much left. So here we are, six weeks after the first bank failure. In the immediate aftermath we were told that the cause was weak management and that the banking system is resilient and strong. Then we heard the same message when Signature Bank failed. Now First Republic, but the banking system is resilient and strong. The fundamental problem is that there is a mismatch between the nature of the actual liquidity of the banks and the structural liquidity of the banks. What I mean is that depositors can request their money on any given day. But when the bank lends money, they lend it for long duration. So the banks' true ability to generate liquidity is far less than the expectation of giving depositors their funds on demand. We learned that lesson when Lehman Brothers failed in 2008. Lehman Brothers bank in the Bahamas was taking in LIBOR deposits which were of short duration. When deposits dried up, the bank became insolvent overnight. Yes, Lehman Brothers was structurally flawed that is clear. But what about any bank? Are they truly in better shape? We have banking contagion. It is here. It was easily predictable, and our banking system is not resilient nor is it strong. There are calls from the white house for increased banking regulation. But if you actually take time to read the SVB report, it is clear that the existing regulations were not actually being used. -------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: podcast@victorjm.com
The turmoil in the banking industry isn't over yet. Today, First Republic Bank was seized, following the failures of Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank back in March. How did we get here? And how do we prevent banks from failing in the future? A show-stopping mea culpa from the Federal Reserve provides some answers. For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org.
About the Show:"Owning a business and doing something you love and getting up every day to do that is not working, it's doing something you love."Bill Fox, ForgeMeet Bill Fox, a small business champion with a proven track record in Northwest Arkansas. As the Director of Technical Assistance at Forge, Bill has made it his mission to help entrepreneurs access the credit and resources they need to succeed. With an impressive resume that includes stints at the Small Business Development Center and Zweig Group, Bill's expertise in business planning, market research, and consulting is invaluable to those looking to launch or grow their businesses. His commitment to fostering economic sustainability and community development in the Northwest Arkansas region ensures that Bill Fox is a reliable partner for any entrepreneur seeking guidance and support.What you will learn in this episode:Gain valuable insights on the impact of the Forge Community Loan Fund on the growth of small businesses.Understand the critical nature of due diligence for a successful loan application process.Explore key strategies for mastering entrepreneurship and assessing financial situations accurately.Realize the significance of fostering fruitful relationships to drive business success and networking opportunities.All this and more on this episode of the I am Northwest Arkansas podcast. Important Links and Mentions on the Show*Email Bill Fox, ForgeWebsite for ForgeForge on FacebookForge on LinkedInForge on InstagramWebsite for Zweig GroupThis episode is sponsored by*Signature Bank of Arkansas "Community Banking at its Best!" Try Canva For Free Today! Northwest Arkansas Council - "Life Works Here!" *Note: some of the resources mentioned may be affiliate links. This means we get paid a commission (at no extra cost to you) if you use that link to make a purchase.Connect more with I am Northwest Arkansas:Grab our Newsletter Email Us at hello@iamnorthwestarkansas.comConnect With Our Facebook Page Connect With Our Twitter Connect With Our Instagram Connect With Our
On today's episode of The Breakdown, we're revisiting an important topic in light of recent financial news. As the FDIC prepares to take over First Republic Bank, we're airing an episode of The Momentum Advisors that originally aired on March 19th. In this episode, they discuss what happens when banks fail and provide insight into the recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. They also delve into the history of bank failures in the US and offer tips on how to protect yourself if this happens to your bank in the future. It's a timely and informative episode that you won't want to miss. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3ncX8V7 The subject of bank stability has really been a big conversation topic since the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank back in mid-March. People have wondered who was to blame, what went wrong, what could have been different, and what else is still going to happen that we may not know about. I have written in these pages already about Sunday afternoon dramas and the market instabilities that generally create such events. Notice how I worded that, for it was intentional. Sunday afternoon dramas do not create market instabilities; market instabilities create Sunday afternoon dramas. And as we navigate through a change in the present financial cycle, a little perspective is warranted on what has been driving financial cycles. In fact, if we do this well we may just understand not only how this fits into Sunday afternoon dramas and the broad reality of market disruption risk; we may also understand a lot more about the federal reserve, interest rates, and basic financial behavior. So let's jump into the Dividend Cafe ... Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Four of the five mega cap tech companies have reported, we take a look at the company one strategist says has shown the lowest quality earnings. Plus, the “Dean of Valuation,” NYU's Aswath Damodaran's on how the lack of risk capital is impacting tech's performance. The FDIC releases its finding regarding the Signature Bank Collapse. And the one corner of the health care market Mizuho's Jared Holz expects to be a booming, multi-billion dollar business.
P.M. Edition for April 28. U.S. financial regulators released their reports on the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Financial regulation reporter Andrew Ackerman has the major takeaways. Plus, in China, raids on businesses and a tougher espionage law are giving mixed messages to foreign businesses. WSJ deputy China bureau chief Josh Chin explains. Annmarie Fertoli hosts. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Our breakdown of the markets in the first quarter followed by a look ahead to the second. • Learn more at thriventfunds.com • Follow us on LinkedIn • Share feedback and questions with us at podcast@thriventfunds.com • Thrivent Distributors, LLC is a member of FINRA/SIPC and a subsidiary of Thrivent, the marketing name for Thrivent Financial for Lutherans.
Stock markets and banks are teetering on the edge. Join Spectre live to discuss the meaning of the banking crisis and state bailouts. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank followed by runs on First Republic Bank and Credit Suisse triggered panic in financial and stock markets throughout the world. Just as they did in the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, the U.S. and other states bailed the banks out. Where is this banking crisis headed? What does it mean for the real economy? Join Hadas Thier, David McNally, and Michael Roberts to address these and other questions about capitalism and its global slump. Speakers: David McNally is the author of Global Slump and Blood and Money. Michael Roberts is the author of The Long Depression and Capitalism in the 21st Century. This event is sponsored by Spectre Journal and Haymarket Books.
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, coupled with rapidly rising interest rates may be creating a prime opportunity for investors with dry powder to invest in distressed debt in the coming weeks and months. Nathan Whigham, founder and president of EN Capital, joins the show to discuss the overall impact of the banking crisis on capital markets, and why he believes it could be a huge opportunity for some investors. Show notes: https://opportunitydb.com/2023/04/nathan-whigham-256/
According to data from Redfin, the median U.S. asking rent fell 0.4% year over year to $1,937 in March. That's the first U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said that banks are likely to become more cautious and may tighten lending further in the wake of recent bank failures, possibly negating the need for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. In a recent interview, Yellen said that policy actions to stem the systemic threat caused by last month's failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank had caused deposit outflows to stabilize, "and things have been calm."In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss the launch of Apple's 'Apple Card' savings account, with a 4.15% annual percentage yield. It requires no minimum deposit or balance, Apple said, and users can set up an account from the Wallet app on their iPhones.Chris and Saied look at a report from investment research firm Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI), indicating that investors have grown voracious for apartment-building acquisitions in 2021 and 2022, having purchased $355.5 billion and $299.2 billion worth of apartment buildings, unprecedented sums that far surpassed the previous $194 billion record of multifamily sales in 2019.They also offer some thoughts on news that the National Association of Home Builders / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index climbed to 45 in April, a 1-point gain, the highest since September. The index stood at 77 in April 2022.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You'll Learn in this Show:Why the Fed believes that unemployment is an inflationary trend.Why Chris believes inflation may be moderating.The degree of liability on the line for banking executives in the wake of the current crisis.Why difficulty getting loans and a lack of inventory has created a stalemate in the housing market.And so much more...Resources:"Yellen says US banks may tighten lending and negate need for more rate hikes" (Reuters)"Fed should let the economy equilibrate, says former Fed nominee Judy Shelton" (CNBC)"Warren Buffett Doesn't Hold Back When Asked About Failed Bank Execs" (TheStreet)"Credit-card balances have hit historic highs. Here's why that's a worrying sign." (Market Watch)"NO ATMs, no fees, and a 103-year old vault: Inside America's Smallest Bank" (Businessweek via Instagram)"Apple launches its savings account with 4.15% interest rate" (CNBC)"Rental Market Tracker: U.S. Rents Post First Annual Decline in Three Years" (Redfin)
Just about one week into companies reporting results for the first quarter, we take stock of what we’ve learned from banks sharing their numbers. For the most part, they seem to have done pretty well, considering the past three months included the sudden failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. But there are signs that the sector is bracing for a possible economic downturn in the months ahead. Also, the Muslim holy month of Ramadan has just ended and billions of people around the world are now celebrating Eid. A big aspect of the holy month, and the Muslim faith in general, is zakat or charitable giving. During the pandemic, charitable donations increased across the U.S. generally, and so did zakat. Then, inflation entered the mix.
When the Great Recession struck, it was the start of the most significant economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. A slumping housing market revealed vulnerabilities of huge numbers of mortgage-backed securities and derivatives. In the aftermath, unemployment soared to 10%. GDP dropped by more than 4%, and federal authorities unleashed a series of unprecedented fiscal and monetary policies aimed at stemming the bleeding. When the dust finally settled, legislators and regulators pushed through a series of reforms meant to prevent the repeat of such a calamity. Fast forward to 2023 and the global banking system may be facing its most significant crisis since 2008. Within a short span, a run on deposits at Silicon Valley Bank quickly led to the third-largest bank failure in U.S. history, with Switzerland's Credit Suisse later seeking government lifelines. A second US regional bank — Signature Bank — failed, and a third — First Republic Bank — was propped up. To some, these are signs of the kinds of broader risks the global economy stared down in 2008. A combination of factors, including an eroding of regulations, sharp interest rate rises, mismanagement at banks, coupled with the overarching uncertainty of volatile crypto landscape, have raised new questions about the scale of turmoil that could confront markets. This cocktail of risks, some argue, has added such dangers to banking systems that it is no longer safer than it was in 2008. Others disagree. As bad this recent crisis appears to be, they say, regulatory reforms and liquidity requirements have made significant strides since the days of 2008. The system also effectively contained the contagion, something that required far greater government intervention in 2008. In that context, we debate the following question: Is the Banking System Safer Than It Was in 2008? Arguing YES: Jason Furman, Former Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers Arguing NO: Gillian Tett , Editor-at-Large, Financial Times (U.S.) Emmy award-winning journalist John Donvan moderates Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Just about one week into companies reporting results for the first quarter, we take stock of what we’ve learned from banks sharing their numbers. For the most part, they seem to have done pretty well, considering the past three months included the sudden failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. But there are signs that the sector is bracing for a possible economic downturn in the months ahead. Also, the Muslim holy month of Ramadan has just ended and billions of people around the world are now celebrating Eid. A big aspect of the holy month, and the Muslim faith in general, is zakat or charitable giving. During the pandemic, charitable donations increased across the U.S. generally, and so did zakat. Then, inflation entered the mix.
In 2017 the FDIC created a pool of banking veterans who would step up to help in the event of another financial crisis. For years, no one needed them. That changed last month when Tim Mayopoulos and Greg Carmichael were called in to run Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank while the FDIC tried to stabilize a banking crisis. Further Reading: -Collapse of SVB, Signature Bank Tests the FDIC's Executive Reserve Corps -Help Wanted: Regulators Seek Executives to Staff Failed Banks -Signature Bank Is Shut by Regulators After SVB Collapse -Silicon Valley Bank Closed by Regulators, FDIC Takes Control Further Listening: -Can the Government Contain a Banking Crisis Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Banks and the Fed are winding down activity in the mortgage market amid recent funding challenges, signaling a potential new regime for the asset class. Co-Heads of Securitized Products Research Jim Egan and Jay Bacow discuss.----- Transcript -----Jim Egan: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jim Egan, Co-Head of U.S. Securitized Products Research here at Morgan Stanley. Jay Bacow: And I'm Jay Bacow, the other Co-Head of U.S. Securitized Products Research. Jim Egan: And on this episode of the podcast, we'll be discussing mortgage markets. It's Tuesday, April 11th, at 11 a.m. in New York. Jim Egan: Now, Jay, there has been lots of news recently about bank funding challenges, and the FDIC put both Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in receivership. They just announced last week that $114 billion of their securities will be sold, over time, with those securities being primarily agency MBS. Now, that sounds like a pretty big number, can you tell us what the impact of this is? Jay Bacow: Sure. So, I think it's important first to realize that the agency mortgage market is the second most liquid fixed income market in the world after treasuries, and so the market is pretty easily able to quickly reprice to digest this news. And as a reminder, agency mortgages don't have credit risk, given the agency guarantee. Now, that $114 billion is a big number and about $100 billion of them are mortgages, and putting that $100 billion in context, we're only expecting about $150 billion of net issuance this year. So this is two thirds of the net supply of the market is going to come just from these portfolio liquidations. That's a lot, and that's before we even get into the composition of what they own. Jim Egan: Isn't a mortgage a mortgage? What do you mean by the composition of what they own? Jay Bacow: Well, yes, a mortgage is a mortgage, but what banks can do is that they can structure the mortgages to better fit the profile of what they want. And based on publicly disclosed data of when they bought, we assume that most of those mortgages right now have very low fixed coupons—in the context of 2%, well below the current prevailing rate for investors. Furthermore, about a third of the mortgages that the FDIC holds in receivership are these structured mortgages, they're still guaranteed, there's no credit risk, but these would be out of index investments for most money managers. Jim Egan: Well, can't banks buy them, though? Like, aren't these pretty typical bank bonds, two banks owned them in the first place? And if the bonds worked for a bank that time, why don't they work for a different bank now? Jay Bacow: So, part of what made them work for those banks is that they bought them around “par,” and given the low coupons that they have now, they're no longer at par. And for accounting reasons that we probably don't need to get into right now, banks typically don't like to buy bonds that are far away from par. Furthermore, the recent events have made banks likely to need to revisit a lot of the assumptions that they're making on the asset and liability side. In particular, they probably going to want to revisit the duration of their deposits, which is going to bias them towards owning shorter securities. The regulators are probably also going to want to revisit a lot of assumptions as well. And we think what's likely to happen is that they're going to make a lot of the smaller banks have the mark-to-market losses on their available for sale securities flow through to regulatory capital, which in conjunction with some of the other changes probably means banks are going to further bias their security purchases shorter in duration and lowering capital charges. Jim Egan: Okay. So, if the banks aren't going to be active and the Fed is already winding down their portfolio, who's really left to buy? Jay Bacow: Basically, money managers and overseas. And while spreads have widened out some, we think they're biased a little wider from here. Effectively, this is going to be the first year since 2009 that neither domestic banks or the Fed were net buying mortgages. And when you take away the two largest buyers of mortgages, that is a problem for the asset class. And so we think we're in a new regime for mortgages and a new regime for bank demand. Jim Egan: Jay, thank you for that clear explanation, and it's always great talking to you. Jay Bacow: Great talking to you, too, Jim. Jim Egan: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on the Apple Podcasts app and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.
In the first half of March, three banks - Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and Silvergate - all had relatively classic bank runs and collapsed. Which sparked some major banking stress. As a result, the Federal Reserve got a lot of requests to use one of its oldest and most important tools for soothing such troubles: the discount window.The discount window is like a safety net for banks. And recently, a lot of banks have needed it. So, what is the discount window, where did it come from, and how does it work? And, amidst all the recent banking turmoil, has it been working the way it should? In this episode, we crack open the discount window.This episode was produced by Emma Peaslee with help from Willa Rubin. It was engineered by Katherine Silva. It was fact-checked by Sierra Juarez and edited by Sally Helm. Jess Jiang is our acting executive producer.Help support Planet Money and get bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.
Top monetary officials including Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen say things have stabilized in the two weeks since panicked depositors rapidly withdrew their money from Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, causing both to fail. But on top of revisiting recently-relaxed banking regulations, policy makers are pondering how to handle the risk of bank runs in the age of smartphone banking.This episode: White House correspondent Asma Khalid, chief economics correspondent Scott Horsley, and national political correspondent Mara Liasson.The podcast is produced by Elena Moore and Casey Morell. It is edited by Eric McDaniel. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi. Research and fact-checking by Devin Speak.Unlock access to this and other bonus content by supporting The NPR Politics Podcast+. Sign up via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Giveaway: npr.org/politicsplusgiveaway Connect:Email the show at nprpolitics@npr.orgJoin the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.