The Briefing Room

The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves has been widely trailing this month's budget and the difficult decisions she'll have to make in just under two weeks time. This is being taken as code for tax rises and a possible break in Labour's manifesto pledge with a rise in income tax. She's said one of the key reasons for this is that the government's official forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility or OBR, is likely to lower its UK productivity growth forecast for the coming years. So why is UK productivity a problem and what can be done to improve it? Guests: Chris Giles, Economics Commentator, The Financial Times Helen Miller, Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies Duncan Weldon, economist and author Greg Thwaites, Research Director, Resolution Foundation.Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Cordelia Hemming, Kirsteen Knight Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineers: Rod Farguhar and James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

Something is going in the southern Caribbean. The world's largest aircraft carrier - the American USS Gerald R Ford- is on its way to the region. Small boats said to belong to Venezuelan drug smugglers are being blown up by the US military. Old US bases are being de-mothballed. And there's media talk of Trump-induced regime change in Caracas, with Venezuela's authoritarian, leftist president Nicolas Maduro in the crosshairs. In this week's Briefing Room, David Aaronovitch and guests ask what this military show of strength is really about and what it mean for the region? Guests: Will Grant, BBC Mexico, Central America and Cuba Correspondent. Jeremy McDermott, co-founder and co-director of InSight Crime, a Colombia-based think tank that studies organised crime in the Americas. Dr Christopher Sabatini, Senior Fellow for Latin America at Chatham House Dr Annette Idler, Associate Professor in Global Security at the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford. Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight and Cordelia Hemming Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

When a disaster or serious event happens, such as the Grenfell Tower fire, the Manchester Arena terrorist attack or the Covid pandemic, you can be pretty sure that a public inquiry will follow. They're popular with the public as a means of investigating serious state failure. And for Governments they can be a good way of kicking a difficult issue into the long grass, as usually by the time the inquiry is finished a different set of politicians will have to deal with the report.There are currently 25 public inquiries in progress in the UK today - the most ever, with six announced so far this year. They range from one into Scottish child abuse, which is the longest current inquiry, to another into a police restraint death which has just lost its chair and the lawyers working for the inquiry, to Covid 19 - the largest currently underway. And which by the end of June this year had cost 177 million pounds. David Aaronovitch and guests discuss how these public inquiries work, what they achieve and who, if anyone, benefits from them?Guests:Judith Moritz: BBC Special Correspondent Deborah Coles, Executive Director, INQUEST Emma Norris, Director of Policy and Politics at IPPR think tank, Professor Lucy Easthope, emergency planner and responder and visiting Professor at the Centre for Death and Society, University of Bath. Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight, Cordelia Hemming. Sound engineer: Duncan Hannant Editor: Richard Vadon.

Some of the biggest figures in finance, from the CEO of JPMorganChase to the Governor of the Bank of England, have been warning of potential shocks to the global economy. As excitement continues to build about the transformative potential of Artificial Intelligence, the US stock market has boomed, potentially forming a fragile bubble. Meanwhile, recent bankruptcies in America have raised worries that a rapid growth in lending by private companies (so-called shadow banks) might be built on shaky ground - and have invoked memories of the subprime mortgage debacle that kicked off the Great Financial Crisis in 2007. And if that wasn't enough, the threat that Donald Trump might reignite his tariff-driven trade war still looms over the global economy.So how worried should we be? David Aaronovitch speaks to the top experts to find out.Guests: Katie Martin, markets columnist at the Financial Times Duncan Weldon, economist and author of Blood and Treasure Simon French, Chief Economist and Head of Research at investment company Panmure LiberumPresenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Nathan Gower, Kirsteen Knight Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: Duncan Hannant

As Rachel Reeves approaches a tricky budget, her job has got that much harder. Some of our most fundamental economic data, statistics that policymakers are used to accepting at face value, suddenly have major question marks over their accuracy.The UK's top stats agency, the Office for National Statistics, finds itself under considerable pressure as falling response rates to its surveys leave politicians flying blind. David Aaronovitch asks what this means for government decisions and how the ONS can rebuild confidence in its most vital statistics.Guests: Georgina Sturge, research affiliate at the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford Professor Denise Lievesley, former Principal of Green Templeton College, Oxford Chris Giles, economics commentator at the Financial Times. Peter Lynn, Professor of Survey Methodology at the University of EssexPresenter: David Aaronovitch Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Producers: Nathan Gower, Kirsteen Knight, Cordelia Hemming Studio engineer: Duncan Hannant Editor: Richard Vadon

There have been in celebrations in Israel and Gaza at the announcement of a ceasefire and the beginning of a longer term plan for peace and reconstruction in Gaza. There have been ceasefires and hostage releases before, but then the death and destruction has resumed, so why is so much more hope being invested in the current plan? And what's actually in it?Guests: Rushdi Abu-a-loaf, BBC Gaza Correspondent Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies, King's College London David Makovsky, Director of the Program on Arab-Israel Relations at the Washington Institute of Near East Policy Dr Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House.Presenter: David Aaronovitch Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Kirsteen Knight, Cordelia Hemming Studio engineer: Dave O'Neill Editor: Richard Vadon

Five years ago we in the UK were in the false lull between the first wave of covid and the second, between the first variant and the second, between the first peak of covid deaths and the second, higher peak. There wasn't a vaccine and we didn't know when we might get one. Now it's a memory. But another deadly pathogen might pop up in fifty years or it might be manifesting its early stages right now. In the final part of our three-part mini-series looking at how the resilient the UK might be in dealing with potential future crises, we're asking…..how prepared are we to deal with the next pandemic?Guests: Dame Sarah Gilbert, Professor of Vaccinology at the Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford; Sir Peter Horby, Professor of Emerging Infections and Global Health, and Director of the Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford; Malik Peiris, Emeritus Professor of Virology in the School of Public Health at The University of Hong KongPresenter: David Aaronovitch Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Producers: Ben Carter, Kirsteen Knight, Sally Abrahams Studio engineer: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

From councils disrupted by ransomware, leaked defence data or individuals duped by deep fakes, the UK faces increasing cyber threats. David Aaronovitch asks his guests how prepared we are - whether as government defending critical infrastructure or as individuals guarding our digital identities.Guests: Sadie Creese, Professor of Cyber Security in the department of computer science, Oxford University Dr Aybars Tuncdogan, Associate Professor in digital innovation and information security, Kings College, London Emily Taylor, CEO of Oxford Information Labs and Associate Fellow, Chatham House Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Ben Carter, Sally Abrahams and Kirsteen Knight Production co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge Sound Engineers: Dave O'Neill and James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

The UK is getting hotter. And wetter. Extreme weather events in the UK are happening more often. And that trend won't stop any time soon. It all means more flooding and fire risk. Enter the R word - resilience - how well are we coping with what's going on now, and how advanced is our planning for what's coming? In the first of our three part mini series looking at how the resilient the UK might be in dealing with potential future crises we ask how prepared are we to deal with the changing climate? Guests:Mark Maslin, professor of Climatology at University College London Richard Dawson, professor of Engineering at Newcastle University Jess Neumann, Associate professor of hydrology at the University of ReadingProducers: Ben Carter, Kirsteen Knight and Sally Abrahams Productions co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineer: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

In a time of sluggish economic growth, the favourite way of squaring the circle of spending more but not increasing taxes is to borrow - and we have. Keeping everybody's lights on during the pandemic and homes heated after the Russian invasion of Ukraine has helped send our national debt up from £1.8 trillion to £2.8 trillion in recent years.But the question for the chancellor Rachel Reeves is how much more debt we can afford - and how much more debt do the markets think we can afford?So what's the answer to that? Guests:Duncan Weldon, economist and author of 'Two Hundred Years of Muddling Through' Mehreen Khan, economics editor of The Times Chris Giles, economics editor of The Financial TimesProducers: Ben Carter, Kirsteen Knight and Sally Abrahams Productions co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineer: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Fenton-Smith

For years there has been an argument, sometimes loud, sometimes subdued, on whether Britain needs an ID card system. One big reason given for wanting them is simply to know who is here legally. With illegal and irregular migration never far from the headlines these days and with President Macron, during his recent visit describing the “pull factor” of illegal migrants being able to work in Britain, the debate is being resurrected. So, what is the history of ID cards in the UK, what form might they take if we have a system and would they work? Presenter: David AaronovitchGuests:Jon Agar, author of The Government Machine Rainer Kattel, Professor of Innovation and Public Governance, UCL Edgar Whitley, Professor of Information Systems in the Department of Management, LSE Rachel Coldicutt, technology specialist and executive director of the research consultancy, Careful Industries. Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight and Sally Abrahams Productions co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineers: James Beard and Neil Churchill Editors: Sam Bonham and Bridget Harney

'Britain is back on the world stage' said Prime Minister Keir Starmer in May following the first UK-EU summit since the UK left the EU in January 2020. Outline agreements were reached to remove red tape for British farm exports and energy trading with the EU as well as plans for a security and defence partnership. Then a few weeks later the Prime Minister held summits in London with first the French President, Emmanuel Macron and then the German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz. David Aaronovitch asks whether this is the beginning of a new closer relationship with the European Union and if so, what compromises might need to be made.Guests: Peter Foster, World Trade Editor of the Financial Times Jill Rutter, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Government Anand Menon, Director of the UK in a Changing Europe Mujtaba Rahman, Managing Director for Europe at Eurasia Group ConsultancyPresenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Ben Carter and Kirsteen Knight Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Studio engineers: Callum Mclean and James Beard Editors: Richard Vadon and Lisa Baxter

It's been 3 1/2 years since Russia launched an unprovoked invasion of its Ukrainian neighbour. Ukraine's capacity to resist has depended on two things: its own will to fight and support from its allies. Until January this year the US was one of those allies. Then things changed. But in the last week President Trump seems to have taken a turn against Russia. The US president said he was “very unhappy” with President Putin over the lack of progress towards a ceasefire agreement to end the war in Ukraine. On Monday the White House announced 100 per cent tariffs on countries which do business with Russia - those tariffs to begin in 50 days time unless a ceasefire with Ukraine is agreed. President Trump also announced that the US would be sending weapons to Ukraine which NATO allies - and not America - would pay for. David Aaronovitch and guests discuss whether the tide is turning in the Trump-Putin relationship and if this could change the course of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Guests: Paul Adams, BBC World Affairs Correspondent Anton Grushetskyi, Executive director Kyiv International Institute of Sociology Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor, The Economist Angela Stent, Senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former US National Intelligence Officer for RussiaPresenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Ben Carter and Kirsteen Knight Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Studio engineers: Tom Bartlett and Alyson Purcell-Davis Editor: Richard Vadon

The Trump hokey cokey is back. Tariffs on, tariffs reduced - now they're heading back up again. It really got going on April 2nd- President Trump's so-called “Liberation Day” - when he announced a swathe of punitive tariffs on trading partners across the world. The markets tanked and then there was a pause. Countries had 90 days to strike a trade deal - 90 deals in 90 days - we were told. But there weren't. There were only 2. The deadline was this week but now it's next month. But in the past few days the White House has been sending out a flurry of letters with higher tariffs for those without a deal - which is almost everyone. David Aaronovitch asks his guests just what is going on, what's happening to world trade and what happens next? Guests: Soumaya Keynes, Economics Columnist The Financial Times Meredith Crowley, Professor of Economics, University of Cambridge Justin Wolfers, Professor of Economics and Public Professor of Economics and Public Policy, University of Michigan Philip Coggan, author, The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump: What the Trade War Means for the World Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Sally Abrahams, Kirsteen Knight Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineer: Neil Churchill and David Crackles Editor: Richard Vadon

The Government was forced into a humiliating climbdown over its controversial benefits bill this week, and any savings the Treasury had hoped to make were wiped out. The politics of this is a subject on its own, but the underlying problem the government was trying to solve, however, remains. David Aaronovitch asks his guests why the cost of disability benefits has ballooned so unexpectedly, who gets them and why and whether the system works for disabled people.Guests:Paul Lewis, Presenter Moneybox, BBC Radio 4 Tom Waters, Associate Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies Louise Murphy, Senior Economist, Resolution Foundation Ruth Patrick, Professor of Social and Public Policy, University of GlasgowPresenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight and Sally Abrahams Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineers: Sarah Hockley and Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

President Trump says the conflict between Israel and Iran is over after 12 days. For the US and Israel the declared objective has been to destroy Iran's capacity to make a nuclear bomb, with a side order of regime change if possible. They have damaged Iran's capacity to build nuclear weapons but for how long? And what now is the objective for Iran? To rebuild their nuclear weapons programme? Or just for the regime to stay in power? David Aaronovitch and his guests discuss what's next for Iran.Guests: Dr Patricia Lewis, arms control and nuclear physics expert Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor at The Economist, Dr Lina Khatib, Associate Fellow at the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House Professor Ali Ansari, founding director of the Institute of Iranian Studies at St Andrews UniversityPresenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight Sound Engineer: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Editor: Richard Vadon

Following a deadly terrorist attack in Indian administered Kashmir in April a short military conflict broke out between India and Pakistan. For a brief history of the tensions over Kashmir Caroline Bayley spoke to former BBC India correspondent, Andrew Whitehead, who's an expert on Kashmir and its history and author of “A mission in Kashmir”. This is part of a new mini-series called The Briefing Room Explainers. They're short versions of previous episodes of the Briefing Room. Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producer: Caroline Bayley Editor: Richard Vadon

As the Ukraine war grinds on with little sign of Russian president, Vladimir Putin agreeing to a ceasefire we trace the evolution of his attitude towards Ukraine. David Aaronovitch spoke to Vitaly Shevchenko who is Russia editor for BBC Monitoring and co-presenter of the BBC's Ukrainecast.This is part of a new mini-series called the The Briefing Room Explainers. They're short versions of previous episodes of the Briefing Room.Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producer: Caroline Bayley Editor: Richard Vadon

Tariffs have dominated the first few months of President Trump's second term. But where did he get the idea from? Ben Carter spoke to Douglas Irwin, professor of economics at Dartmouth College in New Hampshire in the US.This is part of a new mini-series called the The Briefing Room Explainers. They're short versions of previous episodes of the Briefing Room.Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producer: Ben Carter Editor: Richard Vadon

Rare earths and critical minerals are precious resources everyone seems to want but what are they and what are they used for? David Aaronovitch speaks to Ellie Saklatvala, head of Nonferrous Metal Pricing at Argus – a provider of market intelligence for the global commodity markets.Guest Ellie SaklatvalaThis is part of a new mini-series called the The Briefing Room Explainers. They're short versions of previous episodes of the Briefing Room.Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producer: Caroline Bayley Editor: Richard Vadon

In the past few weeks Marks & Spencer, the Co-op and Harrods have all been grappling with the effects of cyber attacks. The most profitable form of cyber attack at the moment is ransomware where criminals infiltrate computer systems, shut them down and then demand a ransom to restore services, or even to stop them publishing data they've stolen. This is now a global criminal industry which can affect the running of whole businesses. Marks & Spencer said this week that disruption to its online ordering service would continue throughout June and into July. David Aaronovitch asks his guests how ransomware works, who is responsible and what can be done to stop it.Guests: Emily Taylor, CEO of Oxford Information Labs and co-founder Global Signal Exchange Geoff White, investigative journalist and author and co-host of the BBC's podcast series, The Lazarus Heist Susan Landau, Professor of Cyber Security and Policy at Tufts University Professor Alan Woodward, a computer security expert at the University of SurreyPresenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight and Nathan Gower Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Engineers: James Beard and Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

Dire warnings of famine in Gaza, a broken ceasefire and the start by the Israeli government of a new “intense” offensive which could forcibly displace Palestinians to an area in the south of Gaza and perhaps out of the strip altogether, plus the latest release of a US hostage. This is the war between Israel and Gaza 19 months on from the deadly attack by Hamas which killed 1200 people in Israel and took 251 hostages. So what chance of peace between Israel and Hamas? Can a new ceasefire be negotiated with US backing or will Israel go it alone and forcibly occupy most of Gaza?Guests: Yolande Knell, BBC Middle East Correspondent Anshel Pfeffer, Israel Correspondent at The Economist, Yossi Mekelberg, Senior Consulting Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House Shibley Telhami, Professor of Government and Politics at University of Maryland and a non resident senior fellow at Brookings Institution.Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Nathan Gower, Kirsteen Knight Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Engineer: David Crackles Editor: Richard Vadon

President Trump has signed a minerals deal with Ukraine, which will give the US access to some of Ukraine's natural resources. The US president also said he'd like to take over Greenland and even Canada. Why? Well one reason may well be the rare earths and critical minerals found there. Critical minerals are vital for almost every industry from the manufacturing of computers to fighter jets. But in recent years the rise of green technologies has been fuelling demand for minerals used to make batteries for electric cars and other renewable infrastructure. One country dominates the minerals market - China - which has repercussions for the rest of the world, including the US. David Aaronovitch and guests discuss what and where these minerals are, why everyone wants them and how the rest of the world can compete with China. Guests:Ellie Saklatvala, Head of Nonferrous Metal Pricing, Argus, a provider of market intelligence for the global commodity markets. Henry Sanderson, author of ‘Volt Rush, the Winners and Losers in the Race to Go Green' and Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute Sophia Kalantzakos, Global Distinguished Professor in Environmental Studies and Public Policy at New York University in Abu Dhabi and the author of 'China and the Geopolitics of Rare Earths' Olivia Lazard, a senior fellow affiliated with the think tank, Carnegie Europe and Berggruen InstitutePresenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Nathan Gower and Kirsteen Knight Production co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman Sound engineer: David Crackles Editor: Richard Vadon

Tension is high in Indian administered Kashmir following the killing on 22nd April of 26 civilians almost all of whom were Hindu tourists. They were visiting Pahalgam - an area often described as the “Switzerland of India”. Militants opened fire on them and in the days since relations between India and Pakistan, which both claim Kashmir in full but only administer it in part, have deteriorated. India accuses Pakistan of supporting the militants and Islamabad rejects the allegations. This is the latest attack in a decades-long dispute over the region. David Aaronovitch and guests ask what happens next and what sort of a response we are likely to see from India and also Pakistan? Guests: Andrew Whitehead: Former BBC India correspondent and expert on Kashmir and its history, author of ‘A Mission in Kashmir' Anbarasan Ethirajan: BBC South Asia Regional Editor Husain Haqqani : Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington DC and former Pakistan ambassador to Sri Lanka and the US Michael Kugelman - South Asia analyst based in Washington DC and author of Foreign Policy magazine's South Asia Brief newsletter Sumantra Bose: Professor of International and Comparative Politics at Krea University in India and author of Kashmir at the Crossroads: Inside a 21st-Century ConflictPresenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Nathan Gower, Kirsteen Knight Production co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman Sound engineers: Sarah Hockley and James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

The Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer wants the UK to become “one of the great AI superpowers”. Earlier this year the government published a plan to use artificial intelligence in the private and public sectors to boost growth and deliver services more efficiently. Once mainly the preserve of the tech community, AI really entered public awareness with the release of ChatGPT, a so-called “chatbot” founded by the US company OpenAI at the end of 2022. It can write essays, scripts, poems and even write computer code …and millions of people are using it. David Aaronovitch and guests discuss whether the UK could become a successful AI hub, as the government hopes and asks if we'll be able to compete globally with the US and China, the home of huge tech companies?Guests: Dame Wendy Hall, Regius Professor of Computer Science and Director of the Web Science Institute at the University of Southampton. Eden Zoller, Chief Analyst in Applied AI, Omdia. Professor Neil Lawrence, the DeepMind Professor of Machine Learning at University of Cambridge and author of The Atomic Human Jeremy Kahn, AI Editor at Fortune magazine and author of Mastering AI: A survival guide to our superpowered future. Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight, Nathan Gower Production coordinator: Gemma Ashman Sound Engineer: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

President Trump's fury with China shows no sign of abating. High tariffs - first imposed by the US but now on both sides - are giving way to a very real trade war between the world's two biggest economies. China's President Xi Jinping is refusing to blink - so far - and in the past week he's been on the road in South East Asia, visiting Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia. Where this goes now depends in large part on China's calculations about the capacity and determination of both sides to endure a trade war. So what cards does China hold ? And what are the implications for China's own economy and for the rest of us?Guests: Damien Ma, Economist, Kellogg School of Management, Chicago Rana Mitter, ST Lee Chair in US-Asia Relations at the Harvard Kennedy School Isabel Hilton, visiting Professor at the Lau China Institute, King's College, London David Henig, Director of the UK Trade Policy ProjectPresenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight, Lucy Pawle Production co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman Sound Engineer: James Beard Editor: Max Deveson

Rarely has it been so difficult to see the wood for the trees. The trees being Donald Trump's new tariffs announced on what he called Liberation Day and which took effect this week, plus the immediate responses to them. And the wood being the economic strategy that lies behind it all. ​​ ​​That strategy seems to evolve on a daily basis. Having vowed to ‘stay the course' on tariffs earlier this week, yesterday saw Trump issue a change that ‘came from the heart' - that change being a 90 day pause for everyone except China. It's hard to keep up with the plot changes and in this programme we're not going to try. Instead we're going to step back and explore the origin's of Trump's love of tariffs, find out what history tells us about their effectiveness and we'll ask whether Trump does actually have a grand plan. ​​ ​​If he does, what is it and can it succeed?Guests:Douglas Irwin, professor of economics at Dartmouth College in New Hampshire Meredith Crowley, Professor of Economics the University of Cambridge Duncan Weldon, economist and author of "Two Hundred Years of Muddling Through" Mehreen Khan, economics editor of The TimesPresenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Ben Carter, Kirsteen Knight and Beth Ashmead Latham Sound engineers: James Beard Production Coordinator: Katie Morrison Editor: Richard Vadon

Hundreds of thousands of people have taken to the streets in Turkey in the past two weeks in protest at the arrest and jailing of the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu. He's seen as one of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's strongest political rivals and since his arrest he's been voted as the opposition party's presidential candidate in the next elections. He's been accused of corruption, which he strongly denies and his supporters see his detainment as a political move by the Government. David Aaronovitch and guests discuss whether we're witnessing the end of democracy in Turkey.Guests: Mark Lowen, BBC Correspondent and former BBC Istanbul Correspondent Dr Ziya Meral, Lecturer in International Studies and Diplomacy, SOAS Firdevs Robinson, Turkish journalist and broadcaster Monica Marks, Assistant Professor Middle East Politics , NYU in Abu Dhabi Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight and Beth Ashmead Latham Sound engineers: Dave O'Neill and James Beard Production Coordinator: Gemma Ashman Editor: Richard Vadon(Image: Demonstration organised by the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) against the detention of Istanbul's mayor, in Istanbul, Turkey - 29 March 2025. Credit: Tolga Bozoglu/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock)

Securing peace in Ukraine is proving harder than President Trump first thought. Separate talks between US officials and Ukrainian and Russian representatives were held in Saudi Arabia a few days ago. But the tentative ceasefire they reached just for shipping in the Black Sea has already hit problems with Moscow demanding certain sanctions are lifted if it's to comply. And achieving a full ceasefire that Russia will accept still seems as elusive as ever. David Aaronovitch and guests ask what Putin's bottom line on Ukraine really is? Have his long term aims changed and what might he accept? Guests: Vitaly Shevchenko, Russia Editor for BBC Monitoring Sir Laurie Bristow, President of Hughes Hall at Cambridge University and the former U.K. ambassador to Russia from 2016 to 2020. Angela Stent, Senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former US National Intelligence Officer for Russia. Mark Galeotti, writer on Russian security affairs and director of the consultancy Mayak Intelligence.Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight and Bethan Ashmead Latham Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar Production Coordinator: Gemma Ashman Editor: Richard Vadon

The Government is reorganising the way the NHS is run in England by scrapping the body that's been in charge and giving direct control to the Department of Health and Social Care. Jobs will go and the country's biggest quango will be dismantled. But what is the government actually trying to do to the NHS? What are its aims and how does the restructure fit into the government's big picture for the health service in the UK?Guests: Hugh Pym, BBC Health Editor Siva Anandaciva, Director of Policy, King's Fund Dame Jennifer Dixon, Chief Executive of the Health Foundation Dame Carol Propper, Professor of Economics Imperial College in the Department of Economics and Public PolicyPresenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Beth Ashmead Latham, Kirsteen Knight, Caroline Bayley Sound Engineer: James Beard Production Coordinator: Gemma Ashman Editor: Richard Vadon

There's huge pressure on special educational needs and disabilities, known as SEND. The number of children and young people who need extra support has rocketed as more and more are diagnosed with autism, adhd and other mental health conditions. It's led to a funding crisis which is putting a strain on council budgets which pay for the extra help. But it isn't just a financial issue - parents say they are struggling to access the right support for their children. So what's gone wrong and what can be done about it?Guests: Branwen Jeffreys, BBC Education Editor WIll Farr, Cambridge University Faculty of Education Tony Travers, Associate Dean LSE School of Public Policy Luke Sibieta, Institute for Fiscal Studies David Thomas, Former Head Teacher and CEO Axiom MathsPresenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Beth Ashmead Latham, Kirsteen Knight and Caroline Bayley Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar Production Coordinator: Gemma Ashman Editor: Richard Vadon

Donald Trump has only been US president for just over a month and yet the world order seems to be changing by the day. Ukraine has been cut adrift with the pausing of US military aid and intelligence following President Zelensky's disastrous meeting in the Oval Office. And Europe has been left wondering what is coming next as President Macron of France warns that the continent is "at a turning point in history." Europe faces not only having to support Ukraine without the US but potentially having to defend itself against Russia with no help from America. So can it do that? And how quickly could it fill the gaps left by the US?Guests: Frank Gardner, BBC Security Correspondent Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor, The Economist Claudia Major, Director international security division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. Fenella McGerty Senior Fellow for Defence Economics, International Institute for Strategic Studies Presenter David Aaronovitch Producers: Kirsteen Knight, Beth Ashmead Latham, Caroline Bayley Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar Production co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman Editor: Richard Vadon(Image: Soldiers in silhouette. Credit: Photo by Martin Divisek/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock)

We talk through the history of the military alliance.

A quick run down on how the conflict developed - from attempted coup to war of attrition.Guest: Michael Clarke, Visiting Professor in the Department of War Studies, King's College, London and former Director of the Royal United Services Institute.This is part of a new mini-series called the The Briefing Room Explainers. They're short versions of previous episodes of the Briefing Room.Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Kirsteen Knight and Beth Ashmead Latham Studio Manager: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman

A number of studies have shown the amazing weight loss potential of a new group of drugs, known to many by their brand names as Ozempic (which is for diabetes), Wegovy and Mounjaro. But how do these new drugs work? How were they discovered and who can use them? This is part of a new mini-series called the The Briefing Room Explainers. They're short versions of previous episodes of the Briefing Room. Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Kirsteen Knight and Beth Ashmead Latham Studio Manager: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman

A short history of electric cars in the UK. The UK government wants to ban the sale of petrol cars by 2030. But how is the move to electric vehicles going? This episode is part of a new mini-series called The Briefing Room Explainers. Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Kirsteen Knight and Beth Ashmead Latham Studio Manager: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman Guest: Ginny Buckley, Editor-in-Chief and founder of electrifying.com

President Trump wants more tariffs - what are they? And what happened last time he was in office? This is part of a new mini-series called The Briefing Room Explainers. Even though we're not on BBC Radio 4 at the moment (we'll be back at the end of March) we are going to keep publishing podcast episodes for the next few weeks. These explainers are highly relevant mini episodes, covering some of the themes, ideas and terms which are currently in the news. They're short versions of previous episodes of the Briefing Room. Guests: Duncan Weldon, economist and author of 200 Years of Muddling Through. Sam Lowe, Partner at consultancy Flint Global Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Kirsteen Knight and Beth Ashmead Latham Studio Manager: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman

Donald Trump says he wants to introduce more tariffs on imports during his second presidency. He's mentioned targeting imports from countries including Mexico, Canada, China and Demark as well as floating the idea of a universal tariff on all goods coming into the US.So why does Trump like tariffs so much? What can we realistically expect him to do? And what would the effect be on the rest of us? Archive clip included from Joe Rogan Experience podcast, Spotify, 25 October 2024.Guests: Sam Lowe, Partner at Flint Global consultancy Meredith Crowley is a Professor of Economics at the University of Cambridge David Henig, Director of the UK Trade Policy Project Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Kirsteen Knight and Beth Ashmead Latham Sound engineers: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman

Encouraging everyone to make the change to electric vehicles has been a major part of government green and industrial policy for some time now. The government has announced a consultation on how to speed up the transition to electric cars and fade out the sale of petrol and diesel vehicles by 2030. The last Government had extended plans to ban of the sale of new petrol cars to 2035. There are targets, there are mandates and there is scepticism about how quickly the transition is really happening.So, as we enter 2025, what is the state of the country's move from petrol to electric? How do we compare with other countries and what does it say about the British car industry?Guests: Ginny Buckley, Editor-in-Chief and founder of electrifying.com Ian Henry, Owner and Managing Director of Auto Analysis and visiting Professor in Automotive Business Strategy at Royal Holloway, University of London David Bailey, Professor of Business Economics at the Birmingham Business School.Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Kirsteen Knight and Beth Ashmead Latham Sound engineers: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman

The Arctic is going through changes to its climate, economics and geo-politics. What does it mean for the region and the rest of the world? The fact that glaciers are melting and the white landscape is turning green is bad for climate change but could it also bring economic benefits? Guests: Jennifer Spence, director of the Arctic Initiative at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School. Heidi Sevestre, glaciologist and member of one of the Working Groups to the Arctic Council. Heather Conley, senior advisor to the German Marshall Fund's (GMF) board of trustees. Pavel Devyatkin is a Senior Associate and Leadership Group member at The Arctic Institute.Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Kirsteen Knight and Beth Ashmead Latham Sound engineer: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman

In his election campaign President Milei set out his chainsaw approach to cutting spending and inflation. A year on, how has his presidency turned out? David Aaronovitch and guests explore - why was Argentina's economy in such a bad state when Milei took office, what new measures has President Milei introduced, and how have things turned out so far?Guests: Monica de Bolle, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics Tyler Cowan, Professor of economics at George Mason University Pablo Castro, Professor of micro and macro economics at Buenos Aires UniversityPresenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Kirsteen Knight and Beth Ashmead Latham Sound engineers: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman

New weight loss drugs known commercially as Wegovy and Mounjaro have been demonstrated to have a big effect in helping people to lose weight, and have recently been approved for use in obesity treatment in the NHS in England. In total, 4.1 million people would meet the criteria to be eligible to take one of these drugs. That seems fantastic - an end to obesity in our time. The problem is can we afford these drugs without bankrupting the NHS? How badly do we need them? But will this work? Should we be more ambitious? Can this help the NHS? Or bankrupt it? Guests: John Wilding, Professor of Medicine at The University of Liverpool. Alfie Slade is Government Affairs Lead at the Obesity Health Alliance Naveed Sattar, Professor of Metabolic Medicine at the University of Glasgow. Daniel Susskind, Research Professor in Economics at King's College, London. Dr Ellen Fallows, GP and Vice-President of The British Society of Lifestyle Medicine.Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Kirsteen Knight and Beth Ashmead Latham Sound engineers: Rod Farquhar, Neva Missirian Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman