Podcast appearances and mentions of julie norman

Out early due to the fast moving situation...  The ceasefire announced by Donald Trump has seemingly brought an end to the conflict between Israel and Iran.  Yet with the ceasefire almost immediately broken by both sides according to the latest reports, will the truce last? And what can America and allies do to hold peace in a fragile Middle East? Gavin Esler is joined by Dr Julie Norman, professor in politics and international relations at University College London and associate fellow at RUSI, to discuss whether the conflict has merely paused, or if perhaps lasting peace is possible. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There's a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to https://incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Managing Editor Jacob Jarvis. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As Gaza reels from staggering humanitarian devastation, Bronwen Maddox speaks with Yossi Mekelberg, Stephen Farrell, and Julie Norman to unpack the political drivers of Israel's war, the role of Donald Trump, and the region's competing visions for Gaza's future. From internal power struggles to shifting U.S. policy and Arab diplomatic proposals, this episode asks: what future is even possible for Gaza now? Read our latest: Gaza: War, hunger and politics The dissolution of the PKK could transform Turkey's domestic politics and foreign policy Escalating conflict in Tripoli exposes the realities of false stability – and international neglect in Libya Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Amanda Nunn. 'Independent Thinking' is an Indio Media production for Chatham House. Read the Spring issue of The World Today  Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast

Three weeks after Israeli air strikes on Gaza claimed hundreds of lives, hopes for a ceasefire seem increasingly remote. Dr Julie Norman from UCL joins us to discuss Donald Trump's shifting stance, escalating Israeli ground operations, and the deepening humanitarian crisis.The World in 10 is the Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Expert analysis of war, diplomatic relations and cyber security from The Times' foreign correspondents and military specialists. Watch more: www.youtube.com/@ListenToTimesRadio Read more: www.thetimes.com Photo: Getty Images Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Julie Norman and Robin Brant discuss Qatar’s alleged influence-peddling operation that’s rocking Israel. Also in the programme: how China will respond to US tariffs and whether Tiktok will survive the week. Plus: why fraternisation is no longer allowed by US staff in China and a letter from Singapore to New York.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As US strikes on Yemen continue, Julie Norman joins Emma Nelson to discuss why this plan might lead to further escalation. Plus, the latest conditions for a ceasefire from Russia, a flick through the international papers, design news and a look at why Bible sales are soaring in the UK.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Panellists Andrew Tuck and Julie Norman discuss Germany and Europe’s plan to rearm and where Europe should save money instead. Then: the lost art of decorum in politics and Congress; how to clean up our cities; and who you would pay the most money to have dinner with. Plus: Peter Sparding’s book, ‘No Better Friend? The United States and Germany Since 1945’.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Trump's decision to rip up 80 years of transatlantic security co-operation leaves Europe in a panic. What happens when America lines up with a despot like Putin? Can Europe afford to defend itself? Dr Julie Norman of UCL joins us to look at the alarming new security environment. Plus, with Badenoch's Tories in an apparent doom spiral, we look at why politics needs a functioning opposition. And in the Extra Bit for Patreons: White Lotus is back and the Murdoch family hate each other. Why do we love watching the rich suffer?  • Back us on Patreon for ad-free listening, bonus materials and more.  Written and presented by Dorian Lynskey with Rachel Cunliffe and Rafael Behr. Audio production by Tom Taylor. Theme music by Cornershop. Produced by Chris Jones. Managing Editor: Jacob Jarvis. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison OH GOD, WHAT NOW? is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

So much has been written and said about Mr Trump and how he will govern the country for the next four years.We brought together four people - Corina Lacatus from Queen Mary University in London, Julie Norman from University College London, Jane Kinninmont from the European Leadership Network and former US Secret Service Agent Barry DonAdio

Julie Norman joins Emma Nelson to discuss US president Joe Biden’s final days in the Oval Office. Plus: presidents Putin and Pezeshkian of Russia and Iran sign a historic partnership treaty, then we explore Southeast Asia’s biggest international art fair, Art SG, and look back at the life and legacy of director David Lynch.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Radio Tour går på juleferie med et nyt afsnit, hvor Julie Norman Leth og Emma Norsgaard Bjerg gæster Anders Mielke på Aarhus Cyklebane.

This week we're looking at the elections in the United States. Donald Trump has won; the Democrats have been comprehensively defeated. What explains the result? And what are the implications – for the US and the wider world? Episode Notes One week after the US elections, Donald Trump has claimed victory, securing the presidency, the Senate, and almost certainly – though not yet confirmed – the House of Representatives as well. This sweeping win over Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party has ignited widespread discussion: what went wrong for the Democrats, and what lies ahead for both parties? In this episode, we examine these key questions with our expert guests, exploring what this election outcome could mean for US policy on critical issues, including climate change, trade, democracy, and America's relations with Ukraine, the Middle East, and China. With so much at stake, there's already intense debate about the direction the country – and indeed, the world – may take in the coming years. To shed light on these issues we are joined by: Dr Thomas Gift, Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the UCL Centre on US Politics (CUSP). Dr Julie Norman, Associate Professor in Politics and International Relations and CUSP's Foreign Policy Lead. Both Dr Gift and Dr Norman bring deep expertise in US politics and policy, offering insights into where things stand, what to expect from the new administration, and the potential global implications. Together, they help to unpack the complexities of these developments and consider what the future might hold. Date of episode recording: 2024-11-14 Duration: 00:35:08 Language of episode: English (UK and US) Presenter: Alan Renwick Guests: Thomas Gift, Julie Norman Producer: Eleanor Kingwell-Banham Link to transcript: https://ucl-uncovering-politics.simplecast.com/episodes/dissecting-the-2024-us-election

One week after the US elections, Donald Trump has claimed victory, securing the presidency, the Senate, and almost certainly – though not yet confirmed – the House of Representatives as well. This sweeping win over Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party has ignited widespread discussion: what went wrong for the Democrats, and what lies ahead for both parties?In this episode, we examine these key questions with our expert guests, exploring what this election outcome could mean for US policy on critical issues, including climate change, trade, democracy, and America's relations with Ukraine, the Middle East, and China. With so much at stake, there's already intense debate about the direction the country – and indeed, the world – may take in the coming years.To shed light on these issues we are joined by:Dr Thomas Gift, Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the UCL Centre on US Politics (CUSP).Dr Julie Norman, Associate Professor in Politics and International Relations and CUSP's Foreign Policy Lead.Both Dr Gift and Dr Norman bring deep expertise in US politics and policy, offering insights into where things stand, what to expect from the new administration, and the potential global implications. Together, they help to unpack the complexities of these developments and consider what the future might hold. UCL's Department of Political Science and School of Public Policy offers a uniquely stimulating environment for the study of all fields of politics, including international relations, political theory, human rights, public policy-making and administration. The Department is recognised for its world-class research and policy impact, ranking among the top departments in the UK on both the 2021 Research Excellence Framework and the latest Guardian rankings.

As the dust settles on what was a shocking election result for some, we ask how Trump's decisive victory happened and what it means for the US and the world. Andrew Mueller speaks to ‘The Atlantic' staff writer Tom Nichols, the US's former deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, Heather Conley, and co-director of the UCL Centre on US Politics, Julie Norman. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We look back on the region's history and discuss what it can teach us about the future.Jonny Dymond brings together a carefully assembled panel of experts, academics and journalists to talk about the conflict in the region.What has happened in history to lead us to this point? And what can history teach us about what might happen next?This week Jonny is joined by Orla Guerin, the BBC's senior international correspondent, Dr Ahron Bregman, senior teaching fellow at King's College London and Dr Julie Norman, an Associate Professor in Politics and International Relations at UCL. They explore how the decision by then-Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to “disengage” from Gaza and withdraw 9,000 Israeli settlers still looms large over the current conflict in the region.This episode was made by Keiligh Baker with Ivana Davidovic. The technical producers were David Crackles and Jonny Hall. The assistant editor is Ben Mundy. The senior news editor is Sam Bonham.This episode is part of a BBC Sounds series. It was recorded at 14:00 on Tuesday 5 November 2024.

The US election offices have increased security measures amid anticipation of potential violence towards election workers. Justin Smith, election security expert and retired sheriff, tells us more. Also on the programme: Monocle's Christopher Cermak and Julie Norman discuss the final messages from Harris and Trump as last-minute rallies take place in key swing states. Then: we assess how each candidate's foreign-policy promises will affect voters' choices. Plus: Monocle's Geogina Godwin gives us the view from South Carolina.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As world leaders flock to New York this week for the 79th UN General Assembly, Emma Nelson talks to Julie Norman and Mark Lowcock to discuss how the crisis in the Middle East will affect the proceedings. Plus: we find out what the election results might mean for Sri Lanka's economic future and check in at Milan Fashion Week.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Keir Starmer's cut to the winter fuel allowance has passed through Parliament – but at what cost? Plus, the Harris-Trump presidential debate was dominated by Trump lying through his teeth, but do we expect any difference from him? And does this make any difference to the race for the White House? Associate professor in politics and international relations at UCL, Dr Julie Norman, joins the panel to discuss. And in the Extra Bit for subscribers, Labour is coming across as the no-fun, eat-your-greens party. Is it forgetting that joy matters too? We're on YouTube!: https://www.youtube.com/@ohgodwhatnow   www.patreon.com/ohgodwhatnow Presented by Dorian Lynskey with Zoë Grünewald and Rachel Cunliffe. Producer: Chris Jones. Audio production by: Robin Leeburn. Video production by: Kieron Leslie and Chris Jones. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. Managing Editor: Jacob Jarvis. OH GOD, WHAT NOW? is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As Kamala Harris and Donald Trump prepare for their highly anticipated debate in Philadelphia, Julie Norman joins Vincent McAviney to discuss what types of sparks might fly when the two finally go head to head. Plus: Could ‘motionless' turbines be a solution to wind power's noise and wildlife problems? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We explore how the US-Israel relationship has shifted over 10 months of war in Gaza and a change at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket. How might Kamala Harris approach the crisis differently than Joe Biden – and does the US still have any leverage to secure a long-term peace deal in the Middle East? Andrew Mueller speaks with Monocle's US editor, Christopher Lord, analysts Julie Norman and Yossi Mekelberg, and former negotiator Aaron David Miller. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Joe Biden will take the stage at the Democratic National Convention tonight as he cedes the top spot on the presidential ticket. Our panellists Julie Norman and Nik Gowing discuss whether expected nominee Kamala Harris's unity message can survive party divisions over Gaza as prospects of a ceasefire seemingly wane. Plus: what bright idea could win you 50,000 Swiss francs?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Julie Norman and Chris Sabatini discuss Western leaders' embrace of G7 host and right-wing Italian leader Giorgia Meloni, whether courts could halt aggressive immigration policies in Hungary and the US, Haiti's new government and the idea of charging for ice cubes. Plus: Antoine Melon, author of ‘The Curious Gourmand'.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today I am delighted to share a new episode with Julie Norman who is an Education Consultant and co-founder of Evolve Generation School with Nachelle Crowther In this imperfectly perfect conversation I talk to Julie about her own journey RE-membering she is a life-long, life-wide and life-deep learner. She also shares all about Evolve Generation and their exciting plans for the future. I really invite you to listen in and to contact them if you would be interested in investing in their wonderful project. You can find out more here: https://evolvegeneration.co.uk/

Our guests Julie Norman and Chris Sabatini discuss China and Russia's throwdown to the US, the spread of “foreign agent” laws in autocracies around the world, the looming Trump-Biden presidential debate and South Korea's K-pop “plogging” campaign. Plus: a letter on Danish happiness from Copenhagen.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Julie Norman and John Everard discuss the latest news from Israel, Washington's views on Asia, North Korea's missile test and the backlash against Milan's ban on selling ice cream after midnight. Plus, will the UK's Rwanda bill finally be passed? And we speak to Ibrahim Mahama, the artist behind ‘Purple Hibiscus' at the Barbican in London.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this week's News Roundtable episode, Chris Wright is joined by:Founder and Director of the Israeli Disarmament Movement, and the Middle East Treaty Organization, Sharon Dolev. Sharon was also the Israeli representative of the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize laureate International Campaign for Abolishing Nuclear Weapons (ICAN)Associate Professor in Politics and International Relations at UCL, Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, and author of 'The Palestinian Prisoners Movement: Disobedience and Resistance', Dr Julie Norman -  she is currently writing a book on the political history of Gaza. Geopolitical and financial crime researcher and consultant, Middle East Research Fellow at ITSS (The International Team for the Study of Security) Verona - an apolitical non-profit organisation focused on the study of International Security Omri Brinner. He specialises in Middle Eastern geopolitics and terror financing, namely Hamas' financing.The panel provide the historical context for the beginnings of the current crisis in the Middle East, looking beyond the 7th October attack back to the Israeli disengagement of 2005 and The Arab Peace Initiative of 2002. They paint the picture of the political misopportunities on the behalf of the Israeli and Palestinian leadership that led to the last six months' vast acceleration in violence. They discuss the relations between all the countries in the region including Egypt, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia.  They move onto what's happening on the ground in Gaza, the military capabilities of Israel, analysing the reality of their proclaimed aim to eliminate Hamas. They turn their focus to Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend. Whether it was a mistake, and whether is was a true display of Iran's full military capabilities. Led by Sharon, they turn to the reality of Iran's nuclear capabilities, and set out a vision for how peace can truly be achieved in the whole region of the Middle East. Many thanks,WOTN Team'I Hit The Nail Right On The Head' by Billy Bremner. © Fridens liljor/Micke Finell.Rock around the clock productions AB.www.rockaroundtheclock.coThis episode was produced by Sound Sapiensoundsapien.comThis podcast is published by New Thinking: www.newthinking.com

UK jets helped Israel to fend off Iran's first-ever direct attack over the weekend, but Foreign Secretary David Cameron is now urging restraint from the Israeli government in its response. We discuss the foreign policy challenges with Bloomberg Managing Editor Adam Blenford, and Julie Norman, Senior Middle East Fellow at RUSI. Any escalation in the Middle East could drive up oil prices and add to inflation here. Energy market expert Bill Farren-Price from the the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies gives us his analysis. Hosted by Stephen Carroll and Yuan Potts.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Defence and Diplomatic Editor of The Independent, Kim Sengupta, and Associate Professor in Politics and International Relations at University College London, Dr Julie Norman

Our panellists Julie Norman and Petri Burtsoff discuss the fallout of Russia's predictable elections, border policies from the US to Finland, the latest from Washington's government-shutdown fight and one family's curious attic discovery. Plus: comedian Joel Morris offers some tricks of the trade.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Julie Norman and Charles Hecker explore whether the US and UN have any real influence over the war in Gaza and why the US still needs to make a point about Julian Assange. Then: we discuss whether the Conservative Political Action Conference is still important and why London will soon get its thinnest hotel. Plus: an interview with Austrian General Robert Brieger.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today we speak with scholar Julie Norman about her book, The Palestinian Prisoners Movement: Resistance and Disobedience. She is joined in conversation by her colleague and collaborator Amahl Bishara. Based on extensive interviews with Palestinian prisoners, Norman's study delineates in detail and depth the centrality of the movement in the broader Palestinian national struggle. Palestinian prisoners took back the prison space for organizing and resistance, developing an internal "counterorder" to challenge authorities. We talk about how the Palestinian prisoners movement was both intertwined with the Palestinian national movement, and yet also prefigured modes of liberation beyond it.Dr Julie Norman is an Associate Professor in Politics & International Relations at University College London (UCL), and a researcher/consultant on conflict, development, and political violence. She is also the Deputy Director of the UCL Centre on US Politics (CUSP), and a Senior Associate Fellow of International Security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).She is the author of five books and multiple articles on unarmed resistance, and she has published widely on conflict, activism, political prisoners, and political violence. She has worked as a practitioner with numerous NGOs in the Middle East and Africa, and she is a frequent commentator on the BBC, CNN, Al Jazeera, and other media outlets.Amahl Bishara is an associate professor of Anthropology, and of Studies of Race, Colonialism, and Diaspora at Tufts University.  Bishara's research revolves around expression, space, media, and settler colonialism. Her first book, Back Stories: U.S. News Production and Palestinian Politics (Stanford University Press 2013) is an ethnography of production of US news during the second Palestinian Intifada. It asks what we can learn about journalism and popular political action when we place Palestinian journalists at the center of an inquiry about U.S. journalism.She is currently working on two book projects. One, addresses the relationship between Palestinian citizens of Israel and Palestinians in the West Bank, two groups that are positioned slightly differently in relation to Israeli settler-colonialism. Her second project examines Palestinian popular politics in a West Bank refugee camp.Bishara regularly writes for such outlets as Jadaliyya, Middle East Report. She also produced the documentary "Degrees of Incarceration" (2010), an hour-long documentary that explores how, with creativity and love, a Palestinian community responds to the crisis of political imprisonment. 

Julie Norman and Ben Kelly discuss the aftermath of New Hampshire's primary, a Gaza ceasefire proposal, the Doomsday Clock and a US scientist's advice to put salt in tea. Plus, an interview with Misan Harriman, the director of short film ‘The After', and its star David Oyelowo.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Foreign policy rarely wins US elections but the wars in Ukraine and Gaza have become intertwined with American politics. Will foreign policy loom large over November's presidential election? And what would another Trump-Biden showdown mean for the world? Andrew Mueller speaks to Johanna Maska, Tom Nichols and Julie Norman.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Julie Norman, University College London professor, discusses Donald Trump's victory at the Iowa Caucuses. Claudia Sahm, founder of Sahm Consulting, gives her take on the Fed's approach to interest rates. Julia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives President, talks about the inflation environment. Barry Ritholtz, host of the Bloomberg Masters in Business podcast, breaks down the week ahead in markets. Ken Rogoff, Harvard Professor and former IMF Chief Economist, takes a look at inflation in the face of our current geopolitical situation. Hosted by Tom Keene and Damian Sassower.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Monocle's Andrew Mueller is joined by panellists Julie Norman and Isabel Hilton to discuss the Joe Biden impeachment inquiry and assess the ongoing EU summit. Plus: what role will China play in the Israel-Palestine peace process? And: we look at a database for scents.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With the US presidential election less than a year away, Julie Norman and Sean Ryan look at two issues that are likely to take centre stage: abortion, as Ohio becomes the seventh state to enshrine reproductive rights in its constitution, and the Israel-Hamas war. Plus: Germany and Australia's migration policies, Bashar al-Assad's invitation to Cop28 and how best to go about getting yourself fired.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

“Watch this space” said Rishi Sunak ahead of the King's speech – well we have been watching it and it's been catastrophic so far. Apart from vowing to halt climate saving policies, what is their long term plan and is there even a point of having one? PLUS, it's almost exactly a year until the polls open in the US election, how are things looking? Could Trump turn it around, or is it in the bag for Biden and the Democrats? This week's guest is Julie Norman, co-director of the Centre on US Politics at UCL. “No matter what side Americans are on, most are disappointed.” – Julie Norman  “I feel like Jeremy Hunt is the invisible chancellor.” – Marie Le Conte Listen to Why?, the brand new podcast taking you to the edge of knowledge, on all good podcast players. Visit whypodcast.co.uk to find it We're on YouTube!: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCVOIkIWUDtu7VrVcFs0OI0A  www.patreon.com/ohgodwhatnow Presented by Alex Andreou with Marie Le Conte, Seth Thévoz and guest Julie Norman. Producers: Chris Jones and Alex Rees. Social Media Producer: Jess Harpin. Audio production by: Alex Rees. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. OH GOD, WHAT NOW? is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mandy Xu, CBOE Global Markets VP & Head of Derivatives Market Intelligence, advises monitoring multiple asset classes going into the year-end. Michael O'Leary, CEO of Ryanair, says the airline remains committed to Boeing despite delays in aircraft deliveries. Amanda Lynam, BlackRock Head of Macro Credit Research, says there's an increased focus on selectively from credit investors. Julie Norman, UCL Centre on US Politics Co-Director, discusses the Israel-Hamas war and Antony Blinken's visits to several leaders in the Middle East. Ashley Allen, Franklin Templeton Corporate Credit Research Analyst, discusses resilient consumer spending. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance    Full transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Lisa Abramoids along with Tom Keen and Jonathan Ferrell. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. I'm DeLine of joined us now at a macro credit research at black Line I and I don't worry. We're not going to be talking about that. I do want to talk about supply if we can start there. We've got forty eight billion dollars a three year notes this week, We've got forty billion dollars a ten year notes. We've got some thirty year bonds twenty four billion dollars worth. These are big, big numbers. That's treasury supply. What's happening with credit supply going into year rent, Good morning, Thank you both for having me so. As you know, credit supply had a bit of a flurry of activity in September. It calmed down in October. I do think with this tentative stability in the treasury market that corporates, CFOs and treasures may look to move ahead before the year end seasonal slow down. It will be an important test for the market how this treasury supply is digested. But as we know, the Treasury Secretary guided us towards the front end of the curve and not so much in duration in the refunding announcement last week. But I actually think, if nothing else, the past several months have shown corporates that this can be very episodic in terms of these windows opening, and so given that we know the maturity walls are coming up, I think for corporates it's better to issue early rather than late. We're expecting a big week in the IG market this week. I think expectations are a little lower in high yield, but I would not be surprised if we surprise to the upside in terms of those expectations, because I think it's just prudent for CFOs, which speaks to kind of the opportunism that one Sidi get desk told me about last week. He messaged me as soon as we saw this rally and he said, everyone's trying to come to market. I've gotten fifteen phone calls. Everyone's basically lined up. Is this going to be bad? With credit spreads widening in the sort of counterintuitive way because we've got more supply, I think the appetite is there, and I think we've had such light supply, especially in high yield year to date, and twenty two was a record a low level that I think the appetite for the market is there. I think where the real risk is is it that lowest quality cohort of the triple C market, that kind of lowest quality rung of high yield which are triple C issuers. There. I think we've seen some enhanced pressure where it's weak results coupled with refinancing needs have really pressured those capital structures. And even on this swift rally in high yield spreads that we've seen over the past few trading sessions, triple c's have rallied, but they've lagged on the way in. And I think it's the market telling you that there's an appetite for certain quality cohort in the credit market. Ig I think is there in most market conditions. Hig yield is a bit more tentative, but for that lowest quality rung, I think it's very case case specific and vary idiosyncratic. Are people kind of just pricing in perfection here? Well? With high old spreads below four hundred, it's hard to argue you that there's much risk premium added into the market at the moment. I think what we're seeing is a lot more focus on selectivity from our credit investors, so thinking about asset allocation between high yield and leverage loans, sector selection, issuer selection. I think where we're high old spreads are at the moment, the path of least resistance is probably a little bit wider in terms of choppiness, with some of the headline risk ahead of us. But again, as we've talked about before, where yields are, it's really difficult to see kind of highield spreads breaking out in this range of much wider from here, because when you every time, we tried to reach four forty last week and we kind of snapped back in, and so there is a bit of a tug of war between fundamentals and technicals, and even the most vulnerable fundamental pockets of the market have been the best performer, Like leverage loans. You mentioned the decision set between loans and say high yield help our audience understand what goes into making that kind of decision and whether that's changed in the last few weeks. So it has changed in the last few weeks because for a few reasons. One is, if you think we're at the end of the rate hiking cycle, if you think we've seen stability in long end rates, you might think that the bulk of the loan outperformance is behind us at this point. And indeed that yield pick up that leverage loans were offering over high old bonds has narrowed. So what we are seeing is a bit more interest, say even within capital structures, of investors saying Okay, well I'm in the loan, should I rotate into the high old bond or given the fundamental pressures of this higher for longer rate environment, that we're expecting our loans disproportionately impacted by that because they've been contending it with it for a longer time. Again, we don't view fixed rate bonds as immune from that in many instances, but I do think on the margin, given the strong performance of loans here to date, there is some refocusing on Okay, is the bulk of that loan performance behind us read some life into that just a little bit more. We sort of big equity move last week. If you're looking at a and I know it's unique and idiosyncratic, but ultimately just give us the thirty five thousand foot view. If you're looking down a capital structure right now, is the bias to be higher or lower in Actually, you know, I think the high end of the highield market has actually outperformed the low end of the IG market. So it's not as clear cut as saying be underweight high yield versus IG. There are a lot of nuances there. I do think for choice, I would prefer to be higher in quality within high yield in IG. I think moving down into that triple beat cohort is a relatively nice place to be. For the most part, the vast majority of those corporates are committed to maintaining investment grade ratings. You are picking up a bit of a spread pickup relative to the highest rate cohort. I think that's important in this current environment, especially if we don't get a severe downturn in growth. So I don't mean to be overly basic about this, but when you take a step back, I do wonder if we do get coalesce around this higher for longer kind of idea. Does it make sense that we're not going to get any kind of major default cycle, either in public credit or in private credit. If we're looking at benchmark rates that are five percentage points higher than when all of these companies were bar in bulk not so long ago, it's a great point, Lisa. So we are seeing a modest uptick in defaults. Were it just under five percent in the US when you combine high yield and leverage loans, that's well off the rock bottom levels of twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two. Do we break out to the levels that we saw in COVID eight and a half nine percent, I think, barring a severe downturn, I don't see it. Part of the reason is that corporates have entered this period in a really strong position. The other part is that the investor appetite, to your point, John, is there. And then third, I would say corporates are actually shifting to a more balance sheet friendly posture. So we haven't seen a lot of debt funded m and A, we haven't seen a lot of debt funded share buybacks. They're still investing in capex, still investing in debt repayment in terms of uses of cash. But I do think corporates do have some discipline. I think the real risk is that if there's a severe downturn in growth coupled with just a capital market's freezing such that these corporates don't have access at any price, I think it's I think it's difficult. As for the private credit point, historically we look at losses between the two markets, and private credit losses have held in better than public credit losses. Part of that is because the enhanced flexibility that those corporates have. We think that holds true. But I think the point remains, we're expecting an ongoing normalization higher and losses across all those asset classes not extremely given where we know where the maturity will is. Can you identify what would be the least optimal time to have any canoa down to and is that what's basically on the horizon now? So I think probably the biggest risk is that if corporates try and time this opportunistically, they let the year end play out, they think the environment will be better in the first half of twenty twenty four, and then we have some sort of shock, whether that's geopolitical unforeseen risk contraction. We're watching bank lending very closely. Although that has actually played out I think a bit more benign than we would have thought. That is the risk. I think that if corporates try to be almost too strategic about the timing and they cut it too close. We saw that in the financial crisis, where some corporates we're shut out. So that's why I think, if I'm a CFO or treasure, better to issue early rather than late. At a Lisa's point, maybe we get a lot more supply in the coming weeks and months based on what we've seen develop over the last few weeks. No matter, thank you always great. I'm out of line in there of black Rock. Michael I literally with this around the table to Ryan CEO. Michael, I wish people could see your face, as said Basting, wispeak it just to get some reaction. It's going to see you. Good morning, It's great to be here, John, Lisa, good talk to you again. Well, thank you, buddy. You've had earnings out this morning. We've been talking about this dividend of four hundred million euros. We've got to talk about this relationship with Boeing. I want to share a couple of quotes with you and then try and get some clarity. So you said in the last week, if anything, it's getting worse. I would have been reasonably confident up until about a month ago that we'd get fifty seven aircraft by the end of June. I'm not confident. We heard from your CFO this morning. So the worst case scenario is that we'll end up with growth of forty seven aircraft next summer instead of fifty seven. Help me understand where things are. What did you want and what do you think you're going to get? Yeah, I mean ourkis so we are contracted to deliver as fifty seven aircraft by the end of April twenty fourth, in other words, fifty seven additional aircraft for summer twenty four. At the moment that has slipped by the spirit production issues, in which it all Boy's own production issues in Seattle. I think now it looks like we'll get they'll leave us maybe ten short by about the end of June. We're hopefully we get forty five fifty aircraft by the end of June. We said the point we're not taking planes in July and August because frankly, we're too busy. But we're reasonably hopeful that we'll get forty five fifty aircraft front. They will leave us short. I think that's inevitable at this point in time, which means we'll have slightly slower growth next summer, but we'll still add forty five aircraft. It'll still be enough to enable us to grow traffic from one hundred and eighty three million passengers this year to just over two hundred million passengers. It's for a number you have in mind whereby you would have to cut capacity the next summer. There isn't. I mean, we haven't yet announced what the capacity will be next summer. As we said this morning, we have ninety percent of our summer twenty four capacity already on sale. Strongforward booking is good pricing, but we can't commit to the last ten percent until we get a better picture from Bowie. I speak weekly with Dave Calhoun. I think he's doing a good job in difficult circumstances. I have less faith in the management in Seattle, but I think you know, we're working closely with them. We have our own people in Seattle. We have our own people in spurting Wichita and anything we can do to expedite these deliveries will do because growth is so strong in Europe. What is it about the management in Seattle what they're getting wrong? I think there isn't enough focus there on a daily basis on how do we get in with these aircraft out? Everybody is kind of ringing their hands blaming Wichita. You know a lot of the issues are in Seattle as well. They need a more crisis I would like to see greater crisis management in Seattle and greater focus on quality control. You know, I don't understand how Wichita Spurt and Wichho We're able to have this succession amount of production problems if BOE's quality control was up to speed. Do you have options options in terms of what do you do if you don't want to work with Boeing anymore? I don't know. Let's say we want to work with Boeing. We're Boeing's biggest customer by a mine in Europe. We're a committed Boeing customer. Now I would buy Airbus aircraft if they were five percent cheaper per seat than Bowing. But Boeing continue to beat Airbus on pricing. The seventy three seven Max is a phenomenal aircraft, like we now this summer we've flown one hundred and twenty five of the Max eight aircraft. We're carrying four percent more pastures, we're burning sixteen percent less fuel. You know, they're transformative in terms of the engine and aircraft efficiency. We've ordered three hundred Max tens, which will allow us to carry two hundred and twenty eight passengers per fight and burn twenty percent less fuel. So they're making great aircraft. It's just they're not making them on time or delivering them in time. Is it fair to say, though, this is a relationship you're stuck with regardless of what it delivers next year. I mean yes, you know we're committed to Boeing. If you look around the world, the aircraft manufacturers, i mean Airbus are no better than Boeing at the moment. Airbus are way behind on their deliveries too. You have the and Whitney engine, which is going to be a real crisis next summer across the A three twenty fleet in Europe. You know, the part and Whitney engine is going to ground a significant number of airbus aircraft next summer. So all of the air craft manufacturers are challenged. We're a very proud Boeing customer. I think Boeing will get its act together. It's just taking a bit longer than we had originally hoped. In the meantime, how far can you jack up prices if capacity is constrained? I mean I think that the real issue for at least is not how much will we jack up prices? How much will Luftansa or France IAG or BA keep jacking of prices? And the answer is a lot. You know your control estimate this sumwhere Europe's operated about ninety four percent of pre COVID capacity, That includes US growing by twenty five percent. So take Ryan air away. Europe still at less than ninety percent of pre COVID capacity. That's not changing next year. The aircraft manufacturers are delivering aircraft late the part and whitneys will mean five ten percent of the airbus street will be grounded. And consolidation. Lufthanso will buy al Italians, somebody else will buy TAP and there'll be even less capacity on offer. Okay, so this is good news for you because you don't have to really have to try too hard to be the lowest cost aircraft while still raising prices. How much you're going to raise prices next year, we're price passive, load factor active. I think what's happening is how much if Lufthansa Air France Scalem will drive up fares I think by a double digit number next year. It will send even more people in the direction of Ryanair. People want to keep flying, Families want to go on holidays. They just don't want to pay off hands as outrageous prices. So I think fares that next year, I mean my operating assumptions fares will go by a low double digit percentage again through the summer twenty four to be the third year in a row, third summer in a row, we'll see double digit fare increases. In Europe. This is the first year in the first time that you're initiating a dividend YEP, it's a four hundred pounds dividend. It is the first time. Does this mean that you have nothing else to do with that money? Essentially? Yes, you know, I mean some of the first time we've done it. We've done special differdence in share buybacks, We've done about seven billion in share buybacks and special dividends. But you know, we're clearly generating a lot of cash at the moment. We've paid down about two billion in debt. We're down to our last two billion in bond that we'll pay that down over the next three years, and we're generating more cash that we know what to do with. We have specific requirements. Firstly was to do pay increases for our people who worked with us during COVID. Secondly was to pay down the bonds, and thirty is to fund aircraft deliveries. But we're running out of the existing order. We take the last aircraft in December twenty twenty four. The first of the Max tens doesn't rive toll January twenty seven, so we're looking into two or three years. So we have effectively very little uses for cash, and I think it's a commitment on our part. We'll return to shareholders. We won't squander it the way many other airlines do in m and A or buying hotels or whatever, or Delta or as Delta would do, giving monstrous pay increases to its pilots over the next four or five years. We need to keep our cost low keep our efficiency high and keep passing on on beatable air first to our customers. Do you think scheholders then can expect more of the same of an xt few years. I think so as long as trading continues. You know, who knows what's going to happen in Ukraine or in the Middle East. But as long as we get a reasonable wind on trading, then I think we will continue very cash generitive and we will return large amounts of cash to share. It's hard to know what is going to happen in Ukraine in the Middle East. I don't expect you to give us a projection. I do want to understand, though, Are you saying things slow down in any way, shype or form when you start to see these things escalate anything that's a no. I anyway, we saw the initial when Russia invade the Ukraine in February twenty twenty two, twenty two or three account Remember you know, there's a sudden downturn in all of our traffic into Poland, Romania those countries. It recovered after two or three weeks. We've had to suspend We're suspending all flights. We've about thirty flights a day into Tel Aviv. They've been suspended until Christmas, so we do want to see those scenarios resolve themselves. But the ultimate underlying trend across Europe we've locked up everybody for two years in COVID. They all want to go back. Traveling families want to go on holidays. We've just completed the October midterm break. We were still full, and I think what people want is to travel more. But there's only ninety percent of the pre COVID capacity. So in Europe you've constrained capacity enormous demand and that is resulting in very strong priceing, not just for right there, but for all of the airlines. Are you're noticing any trite down? I had to describe it as trite down from b to Ryan abbat United saying anything like that. Not at the moment, but you know, I think it's inevitable if the next year or two, if consumers are under pressure, I think you know, you'll see the little and all these are the supermarkets. Ikea will do very well and Rhine will do very well. So what about using some of the cash to make the experience nicer for people who might be frustrated with at least it'd be impossible to make the experience on Rhinier any nicer. You know, new aircraft on time flights, the fewest cancelations of any airline in Europe. But I don't understand why people pay such ridiculous air force for a horrendous experience on Lafanza. Who lose your bag, miss your connection? On Rhiner it's efficient, it's cheap, it's on time, and it is blow like a man four million people. Once upon a time, Did you live like I had to do on a road show a year ago. I had to fly from Frankfurt to Zurich, which is only about a one and a half hour flight, so they stung me for nine hundred euros one way in economy and I was sitting at the back, in the middle seat, in front of the toilet on an age Vice A three twenty. I mean seven hundred jews. I can fly all year round on Ryan here for seven hundred jurors. Michael, It's good to see it, Thanks John, Lisa, Thank fantastic. Got to see Michael Leary there the Ryan Air CEO. I'm at the line of joined us now at a macro credit research at a blackground and I don't worry. We're not going to be talking about that. I do want to talk about supply, if we can start there. We've got forty eight billion dollars of three year notes this week, We've got forty billion dollars a ten year notes. We've got some thirty year bonds twenty four billion dollars worth. These are big, big numbers. That's treasury supply. What's happening with credit supply going into year end? Good morning, Thank you both for having me so. As you know, credit supply had a bit of a flurry of activity in September, it calmed down in October. I do think with this tentative stability in the treasury market that corporate CFOs and treasures may look to move ahead before the year end seasonal slowed down. It will be an important test for the market how this treasury supply is digested. But as we know, the Treasury Secretary guided us towards the front end of the curve and not so much in duration in the refunding announcement last week. But I actually think, if nothing else, the past several months have shown corporates that this can be very episodic in terms of these windows opening, and so given that we know the maturity walls are coming up, I think for corporates it's better to issue early rather than late. We're expecting a big week in the IG market this week. I think expectations are a little lower in high yield, but I would not be surprised if we surprise to the upside in terms of those expectations, because I think it's just prudent for CFOs, which speaks to kind of the opportunism that one that he get Desk told me about last week. He messaged me as soon as we saw this rally and he said, everyone's trying to come to market. I've gotten fifteen phone calls. Everyone's basically lined up. Is this going to be bad with credit spreads widening in the sort of counterintuitive way because we've got more supply. Yeah, I think the appetite is there, and I think we've had such light supply as especially in high yield year to date, and twenty two was a record a low level that I think the appetite for the market is there. I think where the real risk is is it that lowest quality cohort of the triple C market, that kind of lowest quality rung of high yield, which are triple C issuers there. I think we've seen some enhanced pressure where it's weak results coupled with refinancing needs have really pressured those capital structures. And even on this swift rally in high yield spreads that we've seen over the past few trading sessions, triple c's have rallied, but they've lagged on the way in. And I think it's the market telling you that there's an appetite for certain quality cohort in the credit market. Ig I think is there in most market conditions. High yield is a bit more tentative, But for that lowest quality rung, I think it's very case case specific and very idiosyncratic. Are people kind of just pricing in perfection here? Well? With high old spreads below four hundred, it's hard to argue that there's much risk premium added into the market at the moment. I think what we're seeing is a lot more focus on selectivity from our credit investors, So thinking about acid allocation between high yield and leverage loans, sector selection, issuer selection. I think we're high old spreads are at the moment the path of least resistance is probably a little bit wider in terms of choppiness, with some of the headline risk ahead of us. But again, as we've talked about before, where yields are, it's really difficult to see kind of highield spreads breaking out in this range of much wider from here, because when you every time, we tried to reach four forty last week and we kind of snapped back in, and so there is a bit of a tug of war between fundamentals and technicals, and even the most vulnerable fundamental pockets of the market have been the best performer, Like leverage loans. You mentioned the decision set between loans and say high yield. Help our audience understand what goes into making that kind of decision and whether that's changed in the last few weeks. So it has changed in the last few weeks for a few reasons. One is, if you think we're at the end of the rate hiking cycle, if you i think we've seen stability in long end rates, you might think that the bulk of the loan outperformance is behind us at this point. And indeed, that yield pick up that leverage loans were offering over high old bonds has narrowed. So what we are seeing is a bit more interest, say, even within capital structures, of investors saying Okay, well I'm in the loan, should I rotate into the high old bond or given the fundamental pressures of this higher for longer rate environment, that we're expecting our loans disproportionately impacted by that because they've been contending it with it for a longer time. Again, we don't view fixed rate bonds as immune from that in many instances, but I do think on the margin, given the strong performance of loans here to date, there is some refocusing on okay, is the bulk of that loan performance behind us? We read some life into that just a little bit more. We sort of big equity move last week. If you're looking at AG and I know it's unique and it is syncratic, but ultimately just give us the thirty five thousand foot view. If you're looking down a capital structure right now, is the bias to be higher or lower in it? Actually? You know, I think the high end of the high old market has actually outperformed the low end of the IG market. So it's not as clear cut as saying be underweight high yield versus IG. There are a lot of nuances there. I do think for choice, I would prefer to be higher in quality within high yield in IG. I think moving down into that triple beat cohort is a relatively nice place to be. For the most part, the vast majority of those corporates are committed to maintaining investment grade ratings. You are picking up a bit of a spread pickup relative to the highest rate COHORT. I think that's important in this current environment, especially if we don't get a severe downturn in growth. So I don't mean to be overly basic about this, but when you take a step back, I do wonder if we do get coalesce around this higher for longer kind of idea, does it make sense that we're not going to get any kind of major default cycle, either in public credit or in private credit. If we're looking at benchmark rates that are five percentage points higher than when all of these companies were borrowing in bulk not so long ago, it's a great point, Lisa. So we are seeing a modest uptick in defaults were it just under five percent in the US. When you combine high yield and leverage loans that's well off the rock bottom levels of twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two. Do we break out to the levels that we saw in COVID eight and a half nine percent, I think, barring a severe downturn, I don't see it. Part of the reason is that corporates have entered this period in a really strong position. The other part is that the investor appetite, to your point, John is there. And then third, I would say corporates are actually shifting to a more balance sheet friendly posture. So we haven't seen a lot of debt funded M and A, we haven't seen a lot of debt funded share buybacks. They're still investing in capex, still investing in debt repayment in terms of uses of cash. But I do think corporates do have some discipline. I think the real risk is that if there's a severe downturn in growth coupled with just a capital market's freezing such that these corporates don't have access at any price, I think it's I think it's difficult. As for the private credit point, historically we look at losses between the two markets, and private credit losses have held in better than public credit losses. Part of that is because the enhanced flexibility that those corporates have. We think that holds true. But I think the point remains we're expecting an ongoing normalization higher and losses across all those asset classes, not extremely given where we know where the maturity will is. Can you identify what would be the least oportable time to have any economic down to and is that what's basically on the horizon now? So I think probably the biggest risk is that if corporates try and time this opportunistically, they let the year end play out, they think the environment will be better in the first half of twenty twenty four, and then we have some sort of shock, whether that's geopolitical, unforeseen risk contraction. We're watching bank lending very closely, although that has actually played out I think a bit more benign than we would have thought. That is the risk. I think that if corporates try to be almost too strategic about the timing and they cut it too close. We saw that in the financial crisis, where some corporates were shut out. So that's why I think if I'm a CFO or treasure better to is you early rather than late. At at least's point, maybe we get a lot more supply in the coming weeks and months based on what we've seen developed over the last few weeks. Matter, Thank you always great amount of line in there of black Rock joining us now is Judy Norman, the co director of the UCR Center on the US Politics. Judy, always wonderful to catch out with you. You've articulated this, the pressure to articulate and endgame given what's developed over the last couple of weeks. Do you see sense that that pressure is ramping up once again over the weekend? Well, I think it is John and very much from the US increasingly on Israel, mostly behind the closed doors, but starting a little bit more publicly as well. And this has really been an issue since you since the after October seventh, to trying to figure out what would be next for Gaza after an Israeli operation. There are many different options that are considered, but really none of them seem to be very good for either Israelis or for Palestinians. Israelis un Palestinians are not looking for a ReOC patient of Gaza. Some have floated the idea of the Palestinian authority, the West Bank governance having a role in Gaza, but they are very weak, very illegitimate, and also I think would not take on that role just yet. And the US is even exploring some options of saying having a multi national transition kind of group there, some kind of almost like a peacekeeping force. But again, all of these are very tentative options. And I think crucially right now is trying to identify what Gaza might look like after this in a way that is, you know, not just a continued downward spiral for both Gazans and Israelis. Judy. As we can all see at the moment, the administration domestically facing pressure from all corners, Judy, from your position, can you identify any kind of success this administration is having convincing the Israelis of having some kind of humanitarian pause, convincing it Israel of changing its approached somehow. Is there any kind of success you can identify? Yeah, John, So, I would say the US came out very strong and supportive Israel, and some in Israel have called this a sort of bear hog, a public embrace but also a private restraint and kind of some whispers in the ear. So this has started from the beginning, and I think most importantly Blincoln was pushing for a humanitarian pause over the weekend that does not look forthcoming at the moment. Some areas where they have had some success is starting to get a bit more aid into Gaza. There are currently about one hundred trucks now coming into the Gaza Strip per day. Before the invasion. That was about five hundred trucks a day, so still much less than is needed, but more than was coming in for several weeks. The other area that they had some temporary success was getting communications reinstated in Gaza, but I understand over the weekend there have been more blackout so that seems a bit inconsistent. So I think that pressure for humanitarian pauses will continue. For Israel, I think they see that as perhaps halting the offensive, and they're halting their overall aim of ousting Hamass. But for others that is just seen as absolutely necessary for both getting aid into the strip and getting people out, So I think Blncoln will keep focusing on that. And I would note now who suggested that if hostage isbury leased, that might open up some room for a humanitarian pause. So I think we'll see more focus there in the coming days, Julie, what I've found more interesting rather than Tony Blinken going to Israel was all of the other meetings he's had on this particular tour. Right now, he's in Anchora in Turkey. There's a question over Bill Burns and his relationship with Jordan, the head of CIA, and his tour in the region. What is our sense right now of some of the regional countries and their position, their involvement both in what's happening now negotiating with Hamas, but also some solution after this conflict is over sure. So I think there's a couple different facets to this. One is, again the short term, trying to get other Arab states to also back this idea of humanitarian pause. Most leaders are very forthright about calling for a full cease fire, so Lincoln was trying to get some space there as well as just keeping diplomatic channels open. The second was really in terms of trying to keep the conflict contained and trying to avoid flare ups in other Arab countries and in other areas, especially like Iraq, where US troops are stationed and where there are Runi and proxy groups operating, so trying to kind of quell any potential flare ups and just further dispersal of this conflict. And the third, as you mentioned Lisa, is again trying to look ahead to what that endgame might be and what the role of Arab states might be within that. Again, would Arab states be part of some kind of multinational you know, transitional authority or force or something like that. Again, right now, I think most Arab leaders are reading the room pretty clearly with their own populations, who are very sympathetic to the Palestinian cause and are not going to stick out their neck too far for what the US is pushing for. But at the same time, you know, work quite closely with the US and some of these states with Israel as well, and so needing to kind of find that middle ground. So a lot of diplomacy happening that I think will be just continuing wholeheartedly over these next couple of days. As President Biden lost the room with his own party at this point, given his approach on this conflict, I would say it's very clear that the Democrats have a lot of internal divisions over this conflict, and this isn't new to Biden. And I think he knew with an issue as difficult as Israel Palestine, you are probably never going to please everyone, especially in a party like the Democrats, which are pretty split on this issue. Now he's getting a lot of very vocal criticism from many on the left, from many progressives, and from many on the pro Palestine side. But I think he's also getting a lot of support from more traditional liberal Democrats who appreciate the solidarity that he's shown towards Israel. So in some ways, again, you're not going to please everyone. And again, right now, the US is trying to find a very difficult middle road and kind of thread this needle between supporting Israel but also trying to minimize casualties and think ahead to what might be next and what might be best for the region. It's going to be incredibly difficult for the president going to get too next year, Jurney. Just to finish, net poll from the New York Times over the weekend, big lead to for the former president Donald Trump in Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan, Nevada, and lead in Pennsylvania as well. Judy, your thoughts on that as it came out over the weekend, Yeah, this is going to be a big wake up call for Democrats and for the Biden campaign. We've been seeing these neck and neck numbers for Biden and Trump for quite a while, but to really drill down to the six swing states and see that five out of the six Trump is leading with less than a year until the elections is quite notable. And again, this is a little bit different than past elections because both of these both of these men are known quantities everyone and someone like Trump, everything is out there already, So I don't see a lot of this necessarily changing. Obviously, polls a year out, our year out. But I think for Democrats who thought, you know, Trump was going to be an easy target or something like that, it's clear that Biden has a lot of work to do and that's you know, it's going to be challenging for him to keep his coalition together. So I think we'll see some different strategies emerging pretty soon. Hiy, Judy, Thank you, Judy Norman of the US Sales Center on US Politics. Thank you joining us now. I'm so glad to say. Is Ashley Allen, corporate research analyst at Franklin Templeton YU counuigh in maybe I'm Birkenstack, But more importantly, thank you so much for being here, because to me, the big question really is how resilient is a consumer? After people have been saying that they're running out of their savings month after year after month, have we reached a point where you actually are seeing evidence of that? Maybe? And I think it's been maybe for a few months, to be fair, but I think we find ourselves in a really interesting situation right now, especially following three Q earnings. We just heard from a handful of staples companies from restaurants. Consumers are still spending, especially on some things that they'll want to indulge in, whether it's coffee, sweet treats in the grocery store, so that the stata is backward looking, so we have to keep that in mind. But up until this point, again, resilience has been the word that economists are said over and over. They're still showing up to spend on the things that make them feel good. How much in some of the earning calls that you've been tracking and just some of the communication that you've had with corporate officers about what they see going forward, how much do they see this continuing in a durable fashion just based on how much wages are increasing and the fact that the label market is strong. I don't think it's durable, at least at the same level that we have sustained thus far. A lot of the resilience that we've seen on the top line has been driven by price volumes, let's call them flat plus or minus on either side, both in kind of the restaurant space, but also in staples. If you think about the CpG companies in the grocery store, volumes have kind of flat lined, so where they can consumers have technically been pulling back from a volume perspective. They're consuming less. Companies have just realized that they can still benefit from taking price that likely can't continue you forever going forward. Well, a lot of people will argue that a lot of the household balance youes look pretty good. So if people want to lever up to get a latte a double mocacino, they can do that. Is that what we're actually seeing that people are just continuing with indulgences, but levering up to do so. Potentially, I don't necessarily it's always a maybe, right, I don't necessarily think that they're leveraging up to buy their latte. But I think if you have to look at the bigger picture macro, if you think about millennials broadly speaking, who maybe are waiting to buy their first home, if you can't do that right now, I would argue that, you know, spending seven bucks on a coffee isn't going to impact your ability to buy a home the same way the Fed would in regards to their rate policy. So I think from a consumer perspective, it's less so about them leveraging up, but a bit more about the bigger macro picture, what they are spending on and how they're supported by jobs to be frank as well. So as an investor, sure do you recommend then consumer discretionaries that are the small luxuries in life that people seem pretty committed to. Yeah. So there is something called the lipstick effect, which we've seen before, specifically, you know, in regards to beauty, where women will still spend on small luxuries to make themselves filtered during times of economic stress. I think that same the pattern or thesis could easily be applied to sweet treats. To think about you know, oreoles or cookies that we like as well as well as just the occasional splurge in regards to dining out and whether that's at you know, full price restaurant. Maybe you're okay spending you know, twenty bucks on your fast food meal that at one time they will indulge, especially during times at economics spress. Do you buy the holozembic argument. Not yet, it's TBD. I do think, you know, these drugs are really powerful for the individuals that they were originally designed to help, maybe those with type two diabetes or who are severely overweight and obese. But consumer habits really die hard, and I think that it might take more than ozebic, at least in its current form, to change those patterns to zooming out. We were just speaking with Veronica Clark over at City Group and she was talking about how they expect a soft patch now and then a reacceleration and inflation because a lot of consumers just keep accepting prices where they are. Do you agree with that, just based on sort of a company specific kind of analysis, I think that if consumers, if the can keep their wage gains that we've seen recently, if they can, if those can be persistent there's a good chance that they will continue to accept the price gains. I think it's as a matter of who's going to blink first. Is it the consumers or is it going to be the corporations in regards to pulling back on price to drive volumes or consumers finally going to reach a point where they say, hey, you know what, I don't want to spend six bucks on a box of cereal anymore. I don't want to buy that seven dollars CLO fee. But as long as they're supported by jobs and some wage gains, I think you know they'll continue to spend. Which raises this question when you talk to corporate executives and they can pass along these costs, are they then hiring more people? No, because at the end of the day, corporates are also responding to markets. Broadly speaking, they're trying to recover the margin that they lost over the past eighteen months or so when inflation and input cost really got out of control. Margins became compressed. At that time, profitability was hammered. They've benefited these past few quarters from those price increases in conjunction with falling input costs. Now, to be fair, those costs haven't completely reverted, but profitability has been strong from them. And for the most part, this is very idiosyncratic, but companies have been rewarded when their bottom lines, of course have expanded or reverted to pre pandemic levels. So is it's just zooming out to wrat this. I guess there's this question of whether some of the legacy retail companies and whether the legacy service companies can continue to operate and thrive based on their capital structures, you know, borrowing costs that was a lot lower from another era that they were going to have to refinance at a higher rate, whether they are still incredible companies to invest in in a current environment. Are you basically saying that yes, because they're able to pass along those costs to consumers that have continued to really go for the products that they're selling. Yes, they've been able to pass along the cost But the maturity wall, broadbly speaking, has been pushed out for several corporates, including those in retail indiscretionary names. And so you know, they have balance sheets these days in the cash fload to support you know, the interest expense that they have now in three or four years when their maturity wall comes to do, we'll see where we are and we can address it at that time. But at the moment, balance sheets are strong, the cash is coming in, they can make their payments, and they're passing along those higher prices. What are the strongest segments of retail right now? It's a great question. Broadly speaking, beauty as a segment that's continuing to do well. Historically, pet has been a segment that's been strong, but we have seen some weakening there. It's probably a bit of a post pandemic trend that's reversing. But people are sick of spending their entire paycheck on Fido. Ashley Allen, thank you so much of Franklin Templeton. We really appreciate that. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Lisa Abramowitz, and this is BloombergSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza continues to unfold, one major question is whether Israel's northern neighbour Lebanon will be dragged into the war by Hezbollah, the anti-Israel Islamic militant group that's based there. So in this episode, we look at the history of Lebanon, and the role Hezbollah might play in the conflict. Squiz recommends: The Council on Foreign Relations and their explainer on Hezbollah A piece from Dr Julie Norman on Hamas and Hezbollah Other things we do: Squiz Today - a daily podcast and newsletter that gives a fact-filled run-down of what's making news. Squiz Kids - a news podcast for curious kids. Age-appropriate news without the nasties!

President Joe Biden's visit to Israel was a clear indication of US support for Netanyahu's war with Hamas – but he also signalled a need for caution in the region. With the possibility of a second Trump presidency on the horizon, is the US's hands-on approach to the Middle East sustainable? Associate professor of politics and international relations at UCL, Dr. Julie Norman, joins Chris Jones in The Bunker to look at Biden's visit and the future of conflict in the middle east.  “The Israel Palestine is the epicentre for regional conflicts in the Middle East.” – Dr. Julie Norman “As a statesman, Trump is seen as unpredictable and that's difficult in times of crisis.” – Dr. Julie Norman “This conflict has reaffirmed the need for stable global leadership.” – Dr. Julie Norman www.patreon.com/bunkercast  Written and presented by Chris Jones. Producer: Liam Tait. Audio editor: Simon Williams. Managing editor: Jacob Jarvis. Music by Kenny Dickinson. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. THE BUNKER is a Podmasters Production. Instagram | Twitter Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says his favorite hedge at the moment is calls on the treasury market. Steven Major, HSBC Global Head of Fixed Income Research, says there's evidence of capitulation in the markets. Julie Norman, UCL Centre on US Politics Co-Director, says the Israel-Hamas war will define what direction the region goes next. Erika Najarian, UBS Large-Cap Banks & Consumer Finance Equity Research Analyst, discusses bank earnings. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, explains how he factors geopolitical risk into his outlook as he attempts to anticipate markets.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Daleep Singh, PGIM Fixed Income Chief Global Economist, says there's been a flight to quality as markets wade through the "fog of war." Julie Norman, UCL Centre On US Politics Co-director, says Israel faces a challenging path forward as they respond to the attacks by Hamas. Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management Chief Economist, says the Fed is succeeding with their tightening and that the economy is moving towards a faster slowdown. Savita Subramanian, BofA Global Research Head of US Equity & Quantitative Strategy, says markets can rip from here and sees a 4,600 S&P by year-end. Alix Steel, Bloomberg News and Julian Lee, Bloomberg News, discuss Exxon to buy Pioneer for $60B.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Funding for Ukraine has become a point of contention among the GOP. The Freedom Caucus, led by Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz, has pushed against money to help the nation's war effort – and this was excluded in a recent budget bill, in order to facilitate a deal. How did the Republican caucus get here, and how far are they willing to go? Andrew Harrison is joined by associate professor of politics and international relations at UCL, Dr. Julie Norman, to explain the complicated situation unfolding in the US. “This won't make or break things for Ukraine in the coming weeks” – Julie Norman “It's hard to read into what Trump would do with foreign aid if he gets back into power." – Julie Norman “There are many Republicans who are not only supporting Ukraine, but think Biden should be doing more” – Julie Norman Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/bunkercast This week's sponsor is the Disorder Podcast - listen here: https://linktr.ee/disorderpod Written and presented by Andrew Harrison. Producers: Liam Tait and Jade Bailey. Production assistant: Adam Wright. Managing editor: Jacob Jarvis. Music by Kenny Dickinson. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. THE BUNKER is a Podmasters Production. Instagram | Twitter Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We discuss the latest US government shutdown news with Julie Norman, the Saudi-Israel normalisation deal and Russia's ramping up of conscription. Plus: news from the world of urbanism and the culture of wonderful toilets in Japan.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week on Bunker Global: The G20 is assembling in India this weekend, what can we expect from this year's summit? Plus, we take a look at Victor Orbán's interview with Tucker Carlson and the UAE is looking to loosen ‘gaming' laws in their country. Could Dubai become the Las Vegas of the middle east?  Chris Jones is joined by associate professor of politics and international relations at UCL, Julie Norman, and Hungary-based journalist Zsolt Kerner, to get you up to speed on the biggest stories from around the world. "A large proportion of the UAE's population are not citizens. The teachings of the Quran aren't a priority to them.” —Julie Norman "Most Hungarians believe that the US can do whatever it wants for its own gain.” — Zsolt Kerner "India is uniquely placed to bring other countries in the G20 together.” — Chris Jones   www.patreon.com/bunkercast  Written and presented by Chris Jones with Julie Norman and Zsolt Kerner. Producer: Liam Tait. Audio editor: Simon Williams. Production Assistant: Adam Wright. Managing editor: Jacob Jarvis. Music by Kenny Dickinson. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. Special thanks to Balint Bardi. THE BUNKER is a Podmasters Production. Instagram | Twitter Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nina dos Santos is joined by Ivor Gaber and Julie Norman to discuss Ukraine's future Nato membership, war crimes in Darfur and the disbandment of The New York Times sports department. Plus, why the tip box has ignited online debate over unnecessary tipping in South Korea.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The latest on the violence in the West Bank with Julie Norman, associate professor in politics and international relations at University College London. In the studio, Terry Stiastny and Ian Bond discuss the EU's approach to Russian assets, why France and Germany have fallen out of love and how ‘Barbie' has become an unlikely agitator in Vietnam. Plus: a tribute to Ukrainian author Victoria Amelina and New Zealand's Martin Phillipps serenades Monocle's Andrew Mueller. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Bunker panel show returns to mark our ONE THOUSANDTH edition. Can voters wean themselves off the dark thrills of our political Age of Chaos? And what's the long view on Trump's legal troubles? The Guardian's Raf Behr and US politics expert Julie Norman join Jacob Jarvis and Andrew Harrison for a special celebration edition. Exciting changes are coming in The Bunker: a new look plus new strands and music coming soon. There's never been a better time to back us on Patreon, so sign up now for special extras: https://www.patreon.com/bunkercast/posts  “Brexit was both a revolution and a massive fraud. You only get one of those moments of energy and upheaval every generation.” – Raf Behr “This destroys all of Trump's plausible defenses.” – Julie Norman “People like to feel a sense of agency, that what they're living through is meaningful in some kind of way.” – Raf Behr Written and presented by Managing Editor Jacob Jarvis. Producers Kasia Tomasiewicz, Chris Jones and Liam Tait. Art by James Parrett. Music by Kenny Dickinson. Audio production by Alex Rees. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. THE BUNKER is a Podmasters Production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ron DeSantis, the governor of the US State of Florida has now declared his republican nomination for the 2024 Presidential Election. He's the latest in a line of republican contenders keen to take on President Joe Biden for the White House. Since his appointment as Florida's governor in 2018, Ron DeSantis has been busy stamping his own brand of cultural conservatism on the ‘Sunshine State', including limits on abortions and restricting sex and gender identity education in schools. The latter, known officially as the Parental Rights In Education Act', denounced by critics as ‘Don't Say Gay', has led to an ongoing legal battle with Disney over their criticism of the Act. Ron DeSantis claims that his ‘Florida Blueprint' can act as a guide for Federal Policies. But before that, he's got an uphill battle to unseat his former political mentor Donald Trump. The former President is currently leading the Republican field in the polls and he's not wasted any time in attacking Ron DeSantis on a number of fronts, from insults and nicknames, to criticising some of his policies. This week on the Inquiry we're asking ‘Can Ron DeSantis win the White House?' Contributors: Aubrey Jewett, Professor of Political Science at the University of Central Florida, Orlando. Matt Terrill, Public Affairs, Firehouse Strategies, former Chief of Staff to the Marco Rubio for President Campaign. Ron Christie, Former Special Assistant to President George W. Bush and North American Political Analyst for the BBC. Dr. Julie Norman, Co-Director of the Centre on US Politics at University College London. Presenter: Tanya Beckett Producer: Jill Collins Researcher: Anoushka Mutanda-Dougherty Editor: Tara McDermott Technical Producer: Kelly Young Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown (Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in the Air Force One Pavilion at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library March 5 2023 Simi Valley, California. Credit: Mario Tarna/Getty Images)

What does the United States' support for Ukraine in the face of the Russian invasion tell us about the state of America today? Former President Trump, who has a long track record of admiring Vladimir Putin, boasts he could end the war in a day, presumably not in a manner that would satisfy the Ukrainians. President Biden, and many Republican leaders, think that if America doesn't stand firm in opposition to militarised autocracy, then who will? Is this the latest manifestation of an old tension between a vision of America as engaged in the World, as “the last Best Hope” – or as a citadel apart from the world, the debate that roiled the US after the First World War? A debate about whether American freedom is best preserved by being isolated or involved? Adam talks to Phillips O'Brien, Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St Andrews, one of the most influential analysts of the Russian invasion, and Julie Norman, Associate Professor and Co-Director of the Centre for US Politics at UCL. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It's been a bit of a week over in the US. First, after Fox News paid out almost $1 billion to Dominion, Tucker Carlson left the network. After that Biden announced he'd be running for president again, albeit slowly. And then if that wasn't enough, Carlson released a pretty profound statement about his departure on Twitter. Hoping to unpack it all is Julie Norman, co-director of UCL's Centre on US Politics. She joined Jacob Jarvis in the Bunker. “Tucker Carlson has been controversial for a while but through all of that his viewings were super high, the highest in cable news.” “One person that would maybe challenge Trump would be Tucker Carlson.” “Biden knows he's going to get hit from the right as a big spender.” Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/bunkercast  Written and presented by Jacob Jarvis Producer: Chris Jones. Music and Audio production: Jade Bailey. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. THE BUNKER is a Podmasters Production Instagram | Twitter Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices