Podcast appearances and mentions of ken rogoff

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 16, 2024 35:44 Transcription Available

Julie Norman, University College London professor, discusses Donald Trump's victory at the Iowa Caucuses. Claudia Sahm, founder of Sahm Consulting, gives her take on the Fed's approach to interest rates. Julia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives President, talks about the inflation environment. Barry Ritholtz, host of the Bloomberg Masters in Business podcast, breaks down the week ahead in markets. Ken Rogoff, Harvard Professor and former IMF Chief Economist, takes a look at inflation in the face of our current geopolitical situation. Hosted by Tom Keene and Damian Sassower.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

donald trump business bank fed earnings university college london iowa caucuses harvard professor barry ritholtz julie norman bloomberg surveillance tom keene ken rogoff julia coronado

Bloomberg Surveillance: Beyond the Crypto Winter (Podcast)

First Move with Julia Chatterley

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 28, 2023 31:27 Transcription Available

Cameron Dawson, Newedge Wealth Chief Investment Officer, says that signs of a recession will come from the market, not the Fed. Bill Dudley, Former NY Fed President & Bloomberg Opinion columnist, expects central banks to introduce digital currencies amid disarray in the crypto sector. Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Senior Equity Analyst, says AI can take the relationship between banks and technology to another level. Katy Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Chief Research Strategist, says she's concerned about the risk-on rally in the bond market. Norman Roule, Center for Strategic & International Studies Senior Adviser, breaks down the latest on the Israel-Hamas war amid the release of more hostages from Gaza. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Cameron Dawson tear eyed over the quality of that data. Check Cio of New Edge Wealth joining us right now. What's your conviction the next year? I'm talking about you need to get conviction. Now, do you have a lot of conviction? I think that we have to judge as we go into the end of the year when we look at where we in the year with positioning and sentiment and valuations and earnings expectations, because if we get to a point where those things are stretched, where people have been drawn into the market, everybody chases the market into a rallying to the year end, that's when you probably want to start asking questions of how sustainable or durable is We learned that lesson really powerfully this year in the opposite direction. People were underweight, valuations had come in, positioning was very light, and that set up for a very powerful year this year. One really difficult thing for a lot of people is to get two things right. Won the call on the economy and to what the economy means for financial markets. I was looking at Deutsche Bank's call yesterday least when I were going back and forth on this, They've got recession one hundred and seventy five basis points of cuts. Then bink chat is saying fifty one hundred on the SMP. Is good news bad news? Or is bad news good news? What is it? I mean, it's sort of that I want it all and I want it now kind of mentality, which is that I want a FED that's supportive, and I want an economy and earnings that are going to be growing very strongly. And I have to think that we need to ask the question of if a strong economy and strong earnings are consistent with having FED rate cuts and a recession, and if we can have both at the same time, meaning that if the FED is cutting rates, can we really grow earnings at twelve percent next year? Do we actually have the potential that we could have a third year in a row of earnings being closer to flat. If we have a recession. Well, this is John Sulfis basically saying people think we're late cycle, we're actually mid cycle. That if the Federal cuts rates is just sort of a mechanical year over year trying to adapt restrictiveness to inflation, and that that will pave the way for companies to continue to evolve, particularly in the consumer cyclicals. Thoughts. Yeah, it's interesting. You go back to the times when the Fed cut rates and we didn't have a recession ninety five, ninety eight, and twenty nineteen. What's interesting is that the Fed was actually very fearful of a recession in each of those times. They talked about the US not being an island. What's interesting is that the market wasn't scared of a recession. There was no impact to earnings. You had the market hitting all time highs as they were cutting rates. So I think we have to take the cue from the market if it starts to sniff out that data is weakening, that data is starting to come in where we need to be cutting earnings stents we don't hit all time highs in markets, that's when you'd say maybe recession risk is actually higher. So what's your conviction is it to basically shift away from the conviction of everybody else that equities are going to go higher and to take the other side. I think it's incredibly important to remain invested even in times of uncertainty, and the way that we do that is focusing on quality, focusing on companies that can block and tackle, which just means that I want to take out the risk that the economy is going to roll over and I'm going to have big earnings downside. But I also don't want to be over levered. I don't want to be overextended on risk having to have the best case scenario in order for my investments to work. So it's still that middle ground. It's worked really well this year, it likely works really well next year as well, as we think we are still in that late cycle environment. What's so interesting to me is the idea of developing a conviction with five percent money market fund trillions out there. Is part of your optimism of that money shifts given disinflation yields? Yeah, you know, it's a really good question. If all the money market funds is truly investible cap not all, but even at the margin that supports the bid. And we do know that investors compared to the twenty twenty two peak are about three percent less allocated to equities than they were at the peak and twenty twenty two looking at the AAII data, so that would suggest that there is still money on the sidelines, that there still is positioning to be drawn back in. And the good news is that there's cash, there's liquidity. In order to do that, we'll have to continue to watch that data because once people get fully invested, this is critical. I don't mean to interrupt, but you've nailed it. Three percent as the delta here from AAI or whatever it is, AARP, whatever. But the answer is if that money shifts and makes up the three percent difference, what does that do in SMP or Dell points, Well, it likely means that we can continue the rally, But then it calls into question the durability of the rally. Do we test the twenty twenty two high, do we break through it with gusto and really have the kind of rally that we saw coming out of time like twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen, or instead, do we have this sideways chop that looks a lot more like what we experienced in the seventies or even in the two thousands. And it's Chris Harvey is talking about did you just request a down forecast? I did, just busting this. You have a down forecast? Absolutely not. I'm sorry. That was beautiful. Do you want to explain why you don't have a down forecast because it's a price weighted index? Thank you, Cameron Tak Is that enough? Jar Denney SPX five thousands, forty one thousand on the show clip that? I mean, honestly, you guys just gonnatrol each other all morning beautiful. And I said, the perfect ending to this exchange was very good. You know it was great. It was very good. Camera. Thank you. It's going to see it. Cameron Dawson, I knew ittch Wealth, welcome back anytime. I'm going to play this off my book of the year years ago, Ken rog I was very courageous, The Curse of Cash. He's writing about where we are with digital currencies, what the Bank of International Settlements in Geneva thinks, what Central Bank says. He was at the New York Fed. Thanks. Bill Dudley joins us right now writing an important column on c B d C central bank digital currencies, Bill Dudley, very valuable and thought provoking. This morning, we just saw criminal trials, guilty verdicts, maybe appeals involved. But are we getting away from the presumed criminality, the punishment, the secrecy that Ken Rogoff had the courage to talk about. Well, I think that the crypto space is in disarray right now, and the real question now is our central banks around the world going to introduce central bank digital currencies to sort of take up that slack. I think that's going to happen, probably going to be more evolutionary than revolutionary, because it depends on what payment system that you're starting with. I think we're central bank digital currencies could play a very very important role. This is highlighted a new paper that we put out by the brent Witz Committee is really on cross border payments. We had a system of central bank digital currencies where the interfaces were harmonized, you could probably execute payments on a cross border basis at a fraction of the cost. Today, for a lot of migrant workers when they're sending their payments abroad, it costs over five percent of the value of the payment just to execute the trade. It's very slow. So we can certainly do a lot better than than we're doing right now now in this process. The FIT is very far far behind in terms of their work on central bank digital currencies, and in the US there's a quite a bit of skepticism about the need for central bank digital currencies. Why is this work continue? Well, that's so hard of the matter. I'm going to go to Raphael Our owns a high ground on this at BIS. He's documented the incredible friction of transactions in the real world. We all thought we'd be trading bitcoin and you know, John would be down at Selene trading bitcoin for a sweater, but the answers were not. We could really get down to where this is efficacious for central banks. We could really squeeze us down to where there's no transactional friction. Well, that'll obviously always give a little bit of transactional friction, but we can do a lot better than we're doing right now. I mean, in central bank digital currencies should be a pretty significant improvement over cash. I'll be just the safest cash, but in terms of the fault risk, because you'll be guaranteed by the sovereign nation, but you don't have worries about storage. You can transact with digital cash across long distances, So to me, it's like cash plus it's superior to cache and something that we the US should start to innovate on. There's a concern bill that as you disintermediate banks, essentially those agents that really capitalize from those frictions that exist, that some of the functioning of markets that traditionally has supported things like treasuries starts to ebb away. How concerned are you as you start to adopt new, less friction build methods and as capital markets slow in the wake of rate hikes, how much does that really disintermediate banks that really are still essential for the functioning of the treasury market. It really depends on central bank digital currency design, and I think there you want to have a two tier system where the banks continue to own the customer relationships. Central banks don't want to have customer relationships with hundreds of millions of households, so they should hand that off to the banking system. The second thing you want to do is make sure that the central bank digital currency doesn't pay interest. If it doesn't pay interest, it's basically going to be used for payments, not for investment, So that preserves the role of the central of commercial banks as intermediaries. So I think if you do those two things essentially protect that the commercial banking system is providing financial intermediation services, but the central bank helps provide a better payments medium. The reason why I ask is on a broader sense away from digital currencies, is there is increasing concern about how much of the risk taking activity and how much, frankly, of financial market functioning has moved outside of the highly regulated banks into the private sector. Earlier this morning, UBAS chair Clem Kelliher came out warning again that there's a bubble in private markets and that there's risks building there as an increasing amount of lending moved to that area. Are you concerned about that? Do you think that there is this sort of situation forming on the heels of rate hikes, on the heels of the more tightly regulated banks that deserves greater scrutiny. Absolutely? I think this notion that all we need to do to fix the problems that we saw in March of twenty twenty in the banking system is to appile a lot higher capal requirements on the largest banks. I think that's misguided. Increase the cabal requirements on the biggest banks, You're just going to push activity out into the non regulated banking sector, and that's going to make the financial system less secure, more unstable than the current regime. So I think we need to think really hard about what were the problems in March twenty twenty and how to address them. Bill, thanks for catching out with us. Give us an your view on that built outly the former New York Fed President Lie So this is joy. Why don't you bring in mister Mayo here because he's all AI in bankings, which makes me very happy actually because Thanksgiving dinners several of them. All of the discussion was about artificial intelligence. Mike Mayo focused on artificial intelligence as well, saying that it's not just going to be in big tech, it's also going to be in banks that you need to have AI talent at the financial institution, saying the marriage of banks with tech, including AI, is a long term positive that can help the industry trend toward record efficiency. Joining us now is the one and only Michael Mayo, Mike, thank you so much for being with us. So tell us just how much banks could benefit at a time where people have written them off as utilities that are overspending and are not going to make big returns. Well, if you're a bank and don't have an AI strategy, then you don't have a strategy because if the bank across the street has calculators or spreadsheets or Bloomberg terminals, yes, and you don't have those, then how are you going to compete? So AI is here to stay. The marriage of banks and tech has been a good one. It's stalled recently, but I think AI can rekindle that relationship by taking the productivity benefits which have been revenues per employee have improved by one third over the last decade. So banks and tech have been working, but I think AI can take that to another level. Is it a kind of thing where there'll be a few winners you mentioned Golias Mike Mayo in your noe is a kind of thing where four or five will win and the rest lose? Or can it actually be a benefit distributed across the industry? Well, I think most jobs at banks will be impacted. I mean, think of what I do. I'm an analyst, and analysis can be improved by this extra tool called a Now I do think there will always be a human in the loop for most cases. In other words, to prepare for your show today, Lisa and Tom, I went to chat GPT and said, what should I say in one sentence about this? And they said it's a revolution that will enable productivity, savings and better customer service. Well that's an improval. Well that's an improved starting point. But you know it's partly wrong. First, I'm not sure it's a revolution, especially at banks. It tends to be more of an evolution, and simply by enabling that potential doesn't mean that becomes a reality. And you've seen false starts cloud, You've had some buyers remorse. Blockchain didn't come out as quickly as expected. You know the dot com bubble one point. Oh, Tom, you remember all these Internet pollows which didn't survive. So I'm positive on the implications of AI, but I also I'm aware of the cast come back even further. George Ball E. F. Hutton. They blew it. They couldn't keep up on technology. This is Lisa. When there were cards with holes in them and a thing called Fortran. The answer is I want to know who the losers are going to be in this. I mean, I know you've got single best buys in all this, but what is the scale of the losers that you see in technology and banking three to five years out. Well, I do think Goliath is winning, and you have this poll by Evident. I know they've had the founders on your show. In fact, they have an all day conference in New York City tomorrow. So JP Morgan is number one front and center right now and their investment in technology are paying off. I'm surprised to see City Group in the top ten for all their issues with their back office, and they have major issues. They're making some efforts with AI. On the other hand, those banks that have not advanced with digitization and the cloud and getting their data together could struggle. And I do wonder about some of these mid sized banks. I mean, do they have the scale to really leverage these solutions and getting talent. Talent is such a big issue and you can't just buy talent off shelf. You can get solutions, but who's actually going to implement those solutions in each business line? So when I'm listening to you, I'm thinking how much are they're going to pay them. I mean, we're talking about open AI paying eight hundred thousand dollars to engineers at just at of a base level. I mean, how much your bank's going to have to pay some of this talent to come to their bank and develop similar solutions that can effectively support and reduce certain headcount in certain areas well. I think what you'll see is you'll see a reduction in headcount and some of those savings plowed back into paying other employees more money, especially AI engineers. They're in serious demand. But if you go to one of the largest banks, you have a whole career path. You can scale these solutions across tens of millions of customers as opposed to going to a smaller bank. I mean, what's your pitch. Now? There are some smaller banks in this evidence survey that performed quite well because they were already ahead on technology. So I think those winning in technology can keep winning more and those that are behind are going to have to have kind of a existential moment here. This can all work if banks have the cash to invest right and that sort of you put a pause on that at a time when potentially there could be a slow down and there could be some kind of reduction in revenues tied to slowing capital markets how much I understand this is a longer term call, but how much do you see a thawing in that kind of environment next year versus a tightening and the screws I mean, this is sort of one of the big disagreements for the backdrop for banks and capital markets activity at a time where yields are still high, but we also are potentially going to start seeing the effects of that. Well, I promise you I will be the first analyst to ask that question or earnings calls. If banks are spending too much money. Banks have no choice because of the headwinds from rates, recession possibility, and regulation. They must get more efficient. So if I'm the CEO of any bank and you're coming to me with the program for AI and want to invest a lot of money, I'd say, great, where are you saving the money to fund that? Nobody cares. All we want to know from Mike Mayo is what to do this year? Twelve months out, twelve months ago now flat on its back. We've had a magnificent seven moonshot right now. Keith briat Indexes twenty five percent above the pandemic low. Is this the year twenty twenty four of the banks? Do you load the boat here on banking? Well, look, the long arc of the benefits of the industry de risking has still yet to play out. Banks didn't get credit through the pandemic. The excuse was the government stimulus. Right now, you had some smaller regional banks fail earlier this year, so it's still delayed. So I still think over the next two to three years you see the benefit of the improved banking industry resiliency play out, and then they aren't as risky as perceived and they re rate at least back to historical And then the bigger question is longer term for the rerate above. Now, it's not immediate tom. I think as you get further out, you get better inflection points when it comes to banks, bread revenues, interest rates, effects, monetizing that capital markets backlog, and more clarity on regulation, which is a very big issues. Still, just real quick, just to follow up on the AI, what is the right AI investment? Is it getting some sort of application to write your reports for you. Is it being able to collate data from your customers to basically prescribe what they're going to do or want. What's the correct way. There's no one size fits off when it comes to AI investments. It's about banks tailoring those AI investments to their use cases that they have that's unique to them. So I find interesting anything related to compliance, fraud, cyber that's where you're seeing some really low hanging fruit early benefits. I think when it comes to some additional automation in the back office. I love what it can do for technology, the idea of Cobyl program change to Python, change to c plus plus, the ability to change archaic code. And by the way, most or almost all large banks still are advertising for Cobyl programmers. Tom, why are you killing me? By my first programming class at punch cards too so fourteen Yeah, what were that? Ancient? Lisa is like, what are they talking about? Single? Best buy ten seconds, JP Morgan and City Group. I had said, Okay, Barbell approach, Barbell approached, Mike Mayol, thank you so much, as WILLI s Fargo, Kati Kaminski, Chief Investments, trying to just to Alpha Simplex joins us now Katie the journey the low on a tenure yield back in twenty twenty in spring fifty basis points the high over the last couple of months through five percent. It paid to be short this bond market. You have been short, but the turnaround in the last couple of months has been brutaled the other way. We've come from five percent down to four forty on a ten year Katie, you've been short. Are you still short? And if you are, why, Yes, still short? But that has to do with different signals having different views. Take a look at the chart for the year. If you look at the year chart, the last month has been a miraculous turnaround relative to where we've come. So we're still way ahead of where we began the year, even prior to what happened in post what happened in the regional banking crisis. And so I think the key question to ask yourself about bonds right now is where are we going next? We have been looking all year for a distant version of the curve, and we got that in October, and the next point is still really uncertain. Are we moving to a steeper curve and if so, which way? Or are we just going to move around and sort of a range until we figure out what's actually happening with the Fed, Katie, Why is it not as simple as taking a look at the economic data coming out showing that it is disappointing much more frequently than it is outperforming, and just sort of leaning into that which the rest of the market seems to be doing. This is a good question, because really what I find the most concerning about the last month is there's been a massive has gone rally on weaker economic data, and that to me is sort of a relief rally from where we've come, because we've been through a lot, particularly in bonds, and so I think most people are buying right now because they're saying, if we see cuts soon, then we know that yields are going to come down. My concern is that it could take a lot longer than people think, pointing out that inflation is still way above target, or at least one percent above target, so we could take a year or so to get there. People are very quick to think that things are over when they take time to actually get through the system. Katie, we're setting up for the new year. I want to go back to the advent of all this, and this is trend based studies, and it's Andrew Low the giant, and you know, working with Elf Simplex and Wells Wilder and Monroe Trout, John Henry and the rest and the Germaine question twenty years ago is the same today. If you look at trend based studies or the complexity of trend based setups, are they elegant right now? Is the math good or are you blind? Well? Turning points are notoriously difficult for trend following. It's because we're not really set up to pick the tops and bottoms of big moves. And what happens in these turning points is we have to figure out using math, where is the next step of the trend. And that's where right now is an inflection point. And I'm looking forward to see if we can actually see that steeper curve. And when we've done historical analysis, what you do see is flat curves or steepening of curves. Is very difficult for trend signals because it's moving. Everything's moving, so it's a stochastic environment and you've got to find a new trend. What is the key attribute for our listeners and viewers to establish the trend? Well, I think the key thing that we always think about as trend followers. We try to blend different views. So right now, the long term view is still cautious. The shorter term view is very very optimistic, And if you combine those two together, you're really sitting in a situation now where we need more data and we need more time to understand where the market's going next. And that's why I think the market is so focused on every data point that comes out, because we're trying to sift through which view is correct. Is there a new trend, have we moved to a new era, a new phase of the of the curve shift, or are we still sort of treading water trying to figure that out. Time is expensive for shorts, and that's something that we have seen play out again and again. How much are some of the short positions being washed out adding to the rally? The stability that we've seen in bond yields over the past week and something that you think maybe can't last, Yes, of course, but I think there's a lot. There's been plenty of shorts this year, especially last year as well. When you think about where we've gone, we definitely need a balance between shorts and longs in this market. We have seen more buying pressure recently, which has been of perhaps causing some deceleration or deleveraging in short positions. But from the trend space, that's a strategy that's much more slow moving than some that you might be discussing. But there are definitely potential that some people are unwinding shorts as well. Hey Kitty, thanks for the update. Still short on this bomb market, Keady Commitski of Alpha Simplex. We take immense pride and I'm talking for the wonderful team we have working twenty four seven of giving you people of experience as we look at the horrific war in the Eastern Mediterranean. We've been advantaged by Norman Rule to say he's a former senior US intelligence official at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, barely describes his public service to the nation. Mister Roland, I want to cut to the chase here my amateur reading of fiction. Is it a ceasefire? Is an intelligence opportunity? Is this ceasefire good for the Israelis to develop intelligence in Gaza? Good morning, and you are absolutely correct. Keep in mind that the Israelis have a variety of means of intelligence. They must ingest a preasent. Prisoner interrogations take quite a while. Laptops have thousands of pages of data that must be reviewed, and you're looking to identify locations of individuals, hiding sites, weapons capacities, movement profiles, so that your troops can then use this as they plan operations when hostilities resume. So this is indeed probably one of the busiest periods for Israeli and partner intelligence. Does their military effort on a longer cease fire? Well, their military right now is supportive of the hostage release. They are concerned obviously that they allowed hostages to be taken and there because of the failure of October seventh, and this period is allowing that innocent Israelis are returning home, but that does not undermine their commitment to eradicating Hamas. Do we understand Have they articulated an endgame? Norman, No, And I think it may be a bit unfair to even think about what an endgame may be. So let me give you a give you an example. We are, in some ways in the easiest period of hostage negotiations. Once the negotiations turned to Israeli soldiers or men, you're going to see Hamas perhaps demand a lot more from the Israelis, the Israelis are unlikely to give, and therefore this could extend the hostage negotiations far longer than Israel could permit. And also we're looking at a period of time when the American presence among the hostages remains significant. Only one American has been released, likely because Hamas wishes to keep American political pressure on Israel. So it may well be that Americans may not be released in the initial period. There's something that you've said that I'd like you to explain to our audience. You said it's important not to confuse procedural hangups with strategic differences on hostage releases. Can you just go through what that actually means, Norman. In the early days of hostage negotiations, you've got issues such as how do you bring hostages to a safe location, exactly which hostage is going to be released, and what that particular group holding the hostages feels about their loss of that influence. And then on the Israeli side, you've got prisoners who have committed in some cases quite horrific acts, and the families of the individuals behind those sentences are going to be unhappy about the release. So you're going to have a process of working through this. But it doesn't mean that each side in this issue isn't interested in the release and the ceasefire. In fact, all sides involved Hamas, Israel, the United States, Qutar, they all benefit from a ceasefire and hostage release. Norman, can you just elaborate on the different factions within the Hamas group that are holding hostages and why they might be reluctant to release certain hostages. How this is sort of playing out in a political sphere over in Gaza. Well, we not only have different factions among the Palestinians, primarily Hamas, palestin Islamis Shihad criminal groups that may have taken hostages and seek to sell them to their own Palestinian partners, but we also have a communications problem. Imagine if you are these various groups and you know the Israelis are looking for your communications and looking for your movements, how do you exchange the data and conduct those intra Palestinian negotiations just to get that process going. It's a very complicated situation. What do you expect Tony Blinken to do on his latest tour of the region. We're always going to push for some sort of continued pressure on Hamas to release not only hostages, but to think about how they would consider a day after event. There's been very little actual crystallization of what day after means. You may have anything from an international police presence to Hamas thinking it can still survive because it will retain hostages for a period of time. And these talks are ongoing among all the various partners, and perhaps most important here are going to be the Saudist because they're leading such a large portion of the Islamic the Islamic world in Israel. It's really to make sure that he has a sense of where the coalition is in terms of resumption of hostilities and how Natanya, who is handling the various hostage debates within his own government. Norman role Aaron David Miller with us yesterday was just brilliant, and how this is not nineteen sixty seven, if that is true, and if there's not going to be a Camp David visit, a Camp David accord. Whatever our memory is of normal diplomatic ties, what do you presume will be the administration's approach to finding some kind of accord. Where are we a year from now, two years from now? Very difficult to think forward. First, you've got to identify which partners are going to show up for a camp David's style agreement meeting. I mean, think about it. Will Benjamin Netanyahu survive in his current political situation? It's stoutful. Who is going to be the leader of the Palestinians? Abu Mazen Mahammuda Bass, the head of the Palestine Authority is eighty eight years old. There will be no hamas presidents at the table. So who do you bring to the table that those entities don't actually exist at present? That's a massive question. Norman has tried to get your for you, it always says no one. Roll of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen and this is Bloomberg,See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Featured interview: Economist Ken Rogoff

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 25, 2023 42:27

As usual, all economic eyes and ears will be on Fed chair Jerome Powell when he speaks at a global central bank meeting later today in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. While Powell's remarks aren't expected to be as gloomy as last year's, no one's expecting a "mission accomplished" moment either. Joining the show to discuss is Ken Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Maurits C. Boas Chair of International Economics at Harvard University. To learn more about how CNN protects listener privacy, visit cnn.com/privacy

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Featured interview: Economist Ken Rogoff

First Move with Julia Chatterley

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 17, 2023 45:47

It's been a week filled with uncertainty for the banking sector, investors and consumers. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and subsequent government takeover, the Credit Suisse stock crash, and yesterday's $30 billion big bank bailout of First Republic have given the Fed a lot to consider ahead of its upcoming interest rate meeting. Former IMF Chief Economist Ken Rogoff, now a professor of economics at Harvard, has repeatedly warned of financial instability if the central bank continues to raise interest rates. He joins Julia to discuss. To learn more about how CNN protects listener privacy, visit cnn.com/privacy

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Is There a Financial Crisis in our Future?

WSJ Opinion: Free Expression

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 8, 2023 27:00

On this episode of the Free Expression Podcast, economist Ken Rogoff talks to The Wall Street Journal's Editor at Large, Gerry Baker about why the U.S. faces a significant chance of recession, the risks of a new financial crisis, and how China is struggling to deal with the realities of its modern economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Is This Time Different? Eight Centuries of Financial Folly with Famed Economist Ken Rogoff (#114)

3 Takeaways

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 11, 2022 22:36

Harvard economics professor and former IMF Chief Economist Ken Rogoff is one of the world's preeminent economic thinkers. Here he brilliantly dissects today's U.S. economy and bluntly explains what must happen to tame inflation and sustain growth – and the major role China may play. He is the co-author of This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.

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Surveillance: Strong Dollar & Crypto with Rogoff

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 18, 2022 26:22

Ken Rogoff, Harvard Professor of Economics & Public Policy & Former IMF Chief Economist, discusses the impact of a stronger US dollar on the global economy and says central banks are "way behind the curve" on cryptocurrency regulation. Mondli Gungubele, South African Minister in the Presidency, discusses how the country is dealing with an economy that is weaker than before the pandemic. Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief US Economist, says higher rents will put more pressure on inflation. Marko Papic, Clocktower Group Chief Strategist, would expect a fraying of the US-European alliance after end of the war in Ukraine. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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IMF cuts global growth forecast

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 19, 2022 26:27

The International Monetary Fund expects global economic growth to slow to 3.6% this year. The forecast shaves almost a percentage point of growth from its forecast from before the war in Ukraine, and we get analysis from Harvard economist Ken Rogoff, who is also a former IMF chief economist. Also in the programme, the government in Argentina is planning to create an aid programme to help the country's poorest people, which will be funded by businesses that have profited from the Ukraine conflict. We get analysis of the move from Hector Torres, who is a former executive director for the IMF in Argentina. The BBC's Theo Leggett reports from France on the country's post-pandemic economic recovery, ahead of this weekend's second round of the presidential election. We look at why some people decide to anglicise their name in order to “fit in” at the workplace with the BBC's Noor Nanji. Plus, our regular workplace commentator Stephanie Hare considers how the Ukraine crisis affects the way businesses engage with the political sphere. Today's edition is presented by Ed Butler, and produced by Joshua Thorpe and Ivana Davidovic.

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Debt relief: Who should foot the bill?

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 18, 2022 17:28

There's a credit crunch facing dozens of the world's poorest countries: billions of dollars are now owed and some countries simply won't manage the repayments. So who should foot the bill? We speak with Sri Lankan businessman, Indika Merenchige, who imports vehicles in to Sri Lanka – but it's not business as usual when your government has defaulted with one of the world's most influential creditors: China. Meanwhile, the percentage some African countries are now paying just to service loan repayments has become alarmingly high - Jan Friederich is an African specialist at the Ratings Agency Fitch and speaks with us from Hong Kong. Plus, saying there's no crisis on the horizon is Sonja Gibbs, the Managing Director and Head of Global Policy Initiatives at the Institute of International Finance, a trade group for the global financial industry. And it's when middle income countries like Turkey default on debt that really worries banks, says Harvard economist Ken Rogoff. Finally, someone thinks they have a plan for widespread debt relief: Tim Jones represents the Jubilee Campaign, a non-profit organisation campaigning for global debt relief. (Image: A broken piggy bank containing a roll of dollar bills; Credit: Getty Images)

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Argentina's latest IMF crisis

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 11, 2022 17:54

Argentina's government and the International Monetary Fund have been renegotiating the terms of a 2018 loan issued to the country – the largest in IMF history. The Fund's own internal analysis of that deal was scathing. The 2018 package had been vaunted for its commitment to protecting the most vulnerable in society. Yet people in Argentina, and particularly those on the lowest incomes, are currently enduring a cost of living crisis, with inflation running at above 50% in 2021, and wages struggling to keep pace with increased housing, food and energy costs. Amy Booth is a journalist in Argentina, and says many people have lost hope in the midst of the country's seemingly interminable economic crisis. Daniel Munevar, who works on debt justice at the European Network on Debt and Development, says the IMF broke its own rules in order to issue the 2018 loan. Carolina Millán is Bloomberg's bureau chief in Buenos Aires, and tells us that the Fund's decades-long association with austerity and misery in Argentina loom large over any potential new deal between the two parties. Former IMF executive director and Argentine diplomat Héctor Torres says he's sceptical that a prospective 22nd loan from the lender to the country will end differently to previous failures. Argentina isn't the only country struggling with debt, either. Former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff says that more than half of the world's poorest nations are currently in debt distress or default. Presented by Ed Butler, produced by Tom Kavanagh. (Photo: Left-wing protesters in Buenos Aires carry a banner reading, “break with the IMF, don't pay the debt”; Credit: Getty Images)

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Argentina's latest IMF crisis

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 11, 2022 17:54

Argentina's government and the International Monetary Fund have been renegotiating the terms of a 2018 loan issued to the country – the largest in IMF history. The Fund's own internal analysis of that deal was scathing. The 2018 package had been vaunted for its commitment to protecting the most vulnerable in society. Yet people in Argentina, and particularly those on the lowest incomes, are currently enduring a cost of living crisis, with inflation running at above 50% in 2021, and wages struggling to keep pace with increased housing, food and energy costs. Amy Booth is a journalist in Argentina, and says many people have lost hope in the midst of the country's seemingly interminable economic crisis. Daniel Munevar, who works on debt justice at the European Network on Debt and Development, says the IMF broke its own rules in order to issue the 2018 loan. Carolina Millán is Bloomberg's bureau chief in Buenos Aires, and tells us that the Fund's decades-long association with austerity and misery in Argentina loom large over any potential new deal between the two parties. Former IMF executive director and Argentine diplomat Héctor Torres says he's sceptical that a prospective 22nd loan from the lender to the country will end differently to previous failures. Argentina isn't the only country struggling with debt, either. Former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff says that more than half of the world's poorest nations are currently in debt distress or default. Presented by Ed Butler, produced by Tom Kavanagh. (Photo: Left-wing protesters in Buenos Aires carry a banner reading, “break with the IMF, don't pay the debt”; Credit: Getty Images)

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US jobs report paints mixed picture

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 7, 2022 26:27

The US economy added just 199,000 jobs in December but unemployment also fell to 3.9%. Ken Rogoff is a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, and currently professor of economics at Harvard University, and explains what the figures actually mean. Also in the programme, France's President Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have been marking the start of France's six month presidency of the Council of the European Union. Maria Demetzis is deputy director of the research institute Bruegel, and tells us what France's economic priorities are likely to be, and we also get the perspective of Mireille Clapot, who is a French Member of Parliament for Mr Macron's En Marche party. The BBC's Vivienne Nunis reports on the potential for gene-based medicine. Plus, with excitement building ahead of football tournament the African Cup of Nations, which gets under way in Cameroon on Sunday, the BBC's Salim Kikeke in Yaounde discusses the potential economic impact of hosting the event. Today's edition is presented by Mike Johnson and produced by Nisha Patel, Russell Newlove, Joshua Thorpe and Philippa Goodrich.

Biden's Build Back Better plan in jeopardy

Business Matters

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 21, 2021 52:34

A key senator has indicated he will not vote for President Biden's Build Back Better plan. We explore the potential impact on the economy with US economist Ken Rogoff. Also in the programme, the government of Ghana intends to introduce an e-levy tax on "mobile money" transactions. Plus, business correspondent Carrie Davies explains how the BBC has discovered that Covid passes are being advertised for sale on social media to people who have not been vaccinated. Rahul Tandon is joined by Jyoti Malhotra senior consulting editor at the Print based in India and Alexander Kaufman Huffington Post in America. Programme producers: Benjie Guy and Nisha Patel ( PIC : President Biden CREDIT: Getty Images)

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Update: Biden's Build Back Better runs into trouble

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 20, 2021 15:17

A key senator has indicated he will not vote for President Biden's Build Back Better plan. We explore the potential impact on the US economy with US economist Ken Rogoff and independent financial advisor Peter Jankowski. Also in the programme, the English Premier League have decided to push ahead with football matches over Christmas and the New Year. We examine the implications for the football sector with Kieran Maguire, lecturer in football finance from the University of Liverpool.

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Surveillance: Time to Act on Inflation, Says Rogoff

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 15, 2021 49:03

Ken Rogoff, Harvard University Economics Professor, says now is the time to act on inflation. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Strategist, explains the factors behind the firm's call for the S&P 500 index to hit 5,100 by the end of 2022. Dana Peterson, Conference Board Economist, expects services activity to return to pre-pandemic levels next year. Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Chief International Strategist, says now there is even more reason to have a much higher terminal rate. Dr. Bhakti Hansoti, Johns Hopkins Associate Professor of Emergency Medicine, says vaccine uptake is improving as omicron spreads. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

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Ken Rogoff: Does Bidenomics make sense?

HARDtalk

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 6, 2021 22:58

The Covid pandemic looks like a watershed moment in global economics. Big Government is back as the failsafe engine of economic growth, as the usual fears such as soaring debt and rising inflation have been pushed aside. Stephen Sackur interviews acclaimed US economist Ken Rogoff, once dubbed ‘the godfather of austerity’. Is he a convert to Bidenomics?

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The Past, Present, and Future of Money

EconoFact Chats

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 21, 2021 23:30

Michael Klein and Ken Rogoff discuss the ways in which large-denomination bills facilitate criminal activity, tax avoidance, and corruption.

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The Past, Present, and Future of Money

EconoFact Chats

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 21, 2021 23:30

Michael Klein and Ken Rogoff discuss the ways in which large-denomination bills facilitate criminal activity, tax avoidance, and corruption.

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Biden unveils coronavirus battle plan

Business Matters

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 15, 2021 53:06

US president-elect Joe Biden unveils economic stimulus proposal. We consider his options with Ken Rogoff, professor of economics at Harvard University, who is a former economist at the International Monetary Fund. Also in the programme, Simon Littlewood, President at the Asia Now Consulting Group, and Alison van Diggelen, host of freshdialogues.com join the BBC's Fergus Nicholl to discuss US relations with China. They also debate what it means to follow your 'dream career'. (Picture: Joe Biden. Picture Credit: Reuters)

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Biden expected to unveil stimulus proposals

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 14, 2021 26:28

US president-elect Joe Biden is expected to unveil economic stimulus proposals today. We consider his options with Ken Rogoff, professor of economics at Harvard University, who is a former economist at the International Monetary Fund. Also in the programme, as budget airline Norwegian announces it is axing its long-haul network, John Strickland of air transport consultancy JLS Consulting tells us whether it marks the end of an era of airlines trying to do transatlantic flights on the cheap. Electric car maker Tesla has been asked by US regulators to recall 158,000 cars because of touchscreen problems. The BBC's Theo Leggett brings us the details. Plus we ask whether when it comes to work, it's more important to keep your head in the clouds, or your feet on the ground, with Scott Galloway, professor of marketing at New York University Stern School of Business.

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Covid and the End of Cash | Ken Rogoff & Sir Howard Davies

CoronaNomics

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 8, 2020 28:26

Long before the coronavirus crisis began, the share of payments made using paper money had been falling. But the Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated us towards a cashless future. Is the end of cash ahead? Or is that exaggerated? Ben Chu (The Independent) and Lizzy Burden (The Telegraph) speak to Ken Rogoff (former Chief Economist at the IMF) and Sir Howard Davies (Natwest Group), and we say farewell to Lizzy on her final episode! Music by Slenderbeats

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How long we can expect the U.S. economic catastrophe to endure

PBS NewsHour - Segments

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 30, 2020 8:11

The coronavirus pandemic leveled the U.S. economy in the second quarter of the year, leading to the worst collapse since the Great Depression. Gross domestic product fell by more than 9 percent between April and June. While some parts of the economy have improved since, weekly jobless claims are rising again. Harvard University economist Ken Rogoff joins Judy Woodruff to discuss the outlook. PBS NewsHour is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders

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How long we can expect the U.S. economic catastrophe to endure

PBS NewsHour - Health

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 30, 2020 8:11

The coronavirus pandemic leveled the U.S. economy in the second quarter of the year, leading to the worst collapse since the Great Depression. Gross domestic product fell by more than 9 percent between April and June. While some parts of the economy have improved since, weekly jobless claims are rising again. Harvard University economist Ken Rogoff joins Judy Woodruff to discuss the outlook. PBS NewsHour is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders

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Fed Chair says US faces 'long road' to recovery

Business Matters

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 10, 2020 55:49

The head of the US central bank, Jerome Powell, has pledged to continue support for the US economy for "as long as it takes". Ken Rogoff, the former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, considers how long that might be. Chairman Powell also announced the bank would keep interest rates near zero for the foreseeable future. Also in the programme, Roger Bootle of Capital Economics wonders how much debt countries will need to take on during the coronavirus outbreak, and what they will do with it after the crisis is over. Tech giant Amazon has said it will stop police forces using its facial recognition technology for the next year. Laurence Dodds of the Daily Telegraph explains how big a business loss this could be for the company. And the BBC’s Andrew Wood joins the show from Hong Kong to reflect on a year of anti-government protests. Plus, women's football had positioned itself to capitalise on a bumper 2019, following a very successful Women's World Cup in France, attracting more than a billion viewers worldwide. But then coronavirus struck. All through the show we’ll be joined by Yoko Ishikura, professor emeritus of Hitotsubashi University in Tokyo, and the writer and broadcaster Ralph Silva in Toronto. (Picture: US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Picture credit: Getty Images)

Update: US faces 'long road' to recovery

PBS NewsHour - Making Sen$e

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 10, 2020 15:19

The head of the US central bank, Jerome Powell, has pledged to continue support for the US economy for "as long as it takes". Ken Rogoff, the former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, considers how long that might be. Chairman Powell also announced the bank would keep interest rates near zero for the foreseeable future. Susan Schmidt of Aviva Investors in Chicago explains how markets reacted. Also in the programme, Roger Bootle of Capital Economics wonders how much debt countries will need to take on during the coronavirus outbreak, and what they will do with it after the crisis is over.

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Economist Ken Rogoff on whether the U.S. has ever experienced a crisis like this one

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 19, 2020 5:52

The coronavirus pandemic is causing immense economic damage. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits has surged as businesses nationwide close down and are forced to lay off workers. Has the country ever experienced anything like this? Paul Solman talks to Harvard University economist Ken Rogoff, whose book "This Time is Different" examines the history of financial crises. PBS NewsHour is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders

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The US consumer debt pile

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 11, 2019 18:28

Payday loans, auto loans and student loans are overwhelming a sector of American society - what can be done to help them dig their way out of their debts? Ed Butler speaks to Dean, a military veteran who says his debts wrecked his health and forced him into personal bankruptcy. Plus student Melissa says her inability to keep up with the interest on her student loans, despite working a well remunerated middle class job, is typical of her Millennial generation. Such stories are becoming commonplace among the young and the poor in the US. In search of solutions to their plights, Ed speaks to Mary Jackson of the Online Lenders' Alliance, Harvard economist Ken Rogoff, and Martha Wunderli of the AAA Fair Credit Foundation in Utah. (Picture: Senior man receiving bank debt documents; Credit: THEPALMER/Getty Images)

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Surveillance: Concerned About U.S. Trade Policy, Dudley Says

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 12, 2018 35:44

We start off on a segment from our TV show with Ken Rogoff, Harvard Professor & Former IMF Chief Economist, and Mariana Mazzucato, University College London Professor & Author of "The Value of Everything." Following, Jim Roemer, Best Weather Inc. President, predicts Hurricane Florence will impact stocks more than commodities. Next, Steve Auth, Federated Investors Equities CIO, says tech companies are the new monopolies. And William Dudley, Former New York Fed Chairman, tells Bloomberg's Michael McKee that he's concerned about the fiscal sustainability of the U.S. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

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Surveillance: Concerned About U.S. Trade Policy, Dudley Says