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In this World Business Report special, Will Bain looks at how US tariffs have affected the Chinese economy, with the two countries set to hold their first talks since the start of the trade war. The US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, will meet China's Vice Premier, He Lifeng, in Switzerland on Saturday. The US introduced a one- hundred and forty-five percent tariff on Chinese imports last month, while China placed retaliatory one hundred and twenty five percent import taxes on American goods. Will hears from Chinese exporters and trade experts.
Simon's live update for Radio New Zealand's "Morning Report" with Corin Dann anchoring.
The US Treasury secretary says the IMF and World Bank have deviated from their purpose. Also: The US issues Ukraine with an ultimatum, and proof that a Roman gladiator in Britain was bitten by a lion.
Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers says there is a substantial need for Harvard University to reform in respect to antisemitism, discipline of students and widening of perspectives. Speaking to Wall Street Week Anchor David Westin, Summers says he believes there's a risk on both sides as he wants the institution to make changes but does not want the government to "order universities around."See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AP Washington correspondent Sagar Meghani reports on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying a trade war with China is not sustainable.
US stocks rally as the US Treasury Secretary says the US-China trade conflict is unsustainable and is likely to ‘de-escalate' soon. But surveys show weaker US economic activity in April due to tariff uncertainty. Also: gold backs off a new high. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, as ANZ Research downgrades its Asia-ex China growth forecasts, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur analyses how policymakers might respond to the tariff shock. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news reality and expectations seem to be diverging.But first up today we can report that the weekly dairy Pulse auction for SMP and WMP brought little-change in the WMP price from the previous full GDT auction in USD, while the SMP price rose +3.0% on that same basis, but basically a recovery. However things are reversed in NZD due to the weaker greenback, with the WMP price falling -1.4% and the SMP price only up +1.7% in our currency.Internationally, the IMF warned that rising US tariffs are marking the start of a new global era of slower growth. Since January, sweeping import duties and retaliation are raising trade barriers to levels not seen since the Great Depression. The IMF cut its global growth forecast for 2025 to +2.8% from +3.3%, and sees continued weakness through 2026. The US will be among the hardest hit, with 2025 growth cut to +1.8% from +2.7%. Others like Mexico, Canada, China, and the EU will feel some effects but are likely to be minor compared to the US.Meanwhile, the US Treasury Secretary has told a private meeting the tariff war is unsustainable and will ease 'soon'. News of these remarks has led to a financial market rally. The problem remains however as neither Trump or China show any signs of backing down, and Bessent himself admitted that talks to de-escalate haven't even started. Markets might be getting ahead of themselves, as is Bessent.In the US, the Redbook retail impulse monitor was up +7.4% last week from the same week a year ago, the highest since the end of 2022. But this is becoming more of a measure of inflation than real sales activity as the tariff-taxes get passed through.The Richmond Fed's factory survey for the mid-Atlantic states reported weak results. It plummeted to -13 in April from -4 in the previous month, and well below market expectations. It is the sharpest decline in factory activity since November. Meanwhile their service sector gauge fell too.The latest and large US Treasury bond auction saw less support, but more than sufficient. However the median yield fell back to 3.74%, compared to the 3.94% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.Canadian producer prices rose +4.7% in the year to March, but they are rising at a quicker pace in recent months. Canada is in its final week of election campaigning.Across the Pacific, Taiwanese export orders rose to the elevated level of US$53 bln in March, but they have been doing this for so long now that the year-on-year gain isn't special for them, 'only' up +12.5%.In the EU, consumer sentiment fell more than expected in April to its lowest level since November 2023.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.39%, a -1 bp dip from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3398/oz, and down -US$19 from yesterday.Oil prices have risen +US$1 from yesterday to be now just under US$64/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just on US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.8 USc, down -20 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 93.7 AUc. Against the euro we up +20 bps at just on 52.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just on 68 and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$91,488 and up +5.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at +/- 2.6%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sought to calm investors’ various concerns on topics including tariff policy, the recent selloff in Treasuries and questions over Fed independence. Bessent spoke to Bloomberg's Annmarie Hordern. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned that the US is now likely headed toward a recession, and two million jobs could be lost due to President Donald Trump's tariffs. He is joined by Bloomberg's David Westin.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Daniel Flatley covers the Treasury Department for Bloomberg and joins KMOX's Megan Lynch to talk about the US Treasury Secretary issuing warnings about federal debt.
Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers sits down with Bloomberg's David Westin to discuss the impending tariffs, what's at stake and what to expect. They also cover the actions taken against certain universities.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
On the Tuesday night episode we have some news off the top and then multiple topics to propose for calls: Comments from the US Treasury Secretary about The American Dream made me wonder what the audience believes the American Dream even is? Poor grammar, I know. Unleash Your Brain w/ Keto Brainz Nootropic Promo code FRANKLY: https://tinyurl.com/2cess6y7 Read the latest Quite Frankly Bulletin: http://www.tinyurl.com/5c8ybku7 Sponsor The Show and Get VIP Perks: https://www.quitefrankly.tv/sponsor Badass QF Apparel: https://tinyurl.com/f3kbkr4s Elevation Blend Coffee: https://tinyurl.com/2p9m8ndb One-Time Tip: http://www.paypal.me/QuiteFranklyLive Send Holiday cards, Letters, and other small gifts, to the Quite Frankly P.O. Box! 15 East Putnam Ave, #356 Greenwich, CT, 06830 Send Crypto: BTC: 1EafWUDPHY6y6HQNBjZ4kLWzQJFnE5k9PK LTC: LRs6my7scMxpTD5j7i8WkgBgxpbjXABYXX ETH: 0x80cd26f708815003F11Bd99310a47069320641fC For Everything Else Quite Frankly: Official Website: http://www.QuiteFrankly.tv Official Forum: https://bit.ly/3SToJFJ Official Telegram: https://t.me/quitefranklytv Twitter Community: https://tinyurl.com/5n8zmwx8 GUILDED Chat: https://bit.ly/3SmpV4G Discord Chat: https://discord.gg/KCdh92Fn Twitter: @QuiteFranklyTV Gab: @QuiteFrankly Truth: @QuiteFrankly GETTR: @QuiteFrankly MINDS: @QuiteFrankly Streaming Live On: QuiteFrankly.tv (Powered by Foxhole) FULL Episodes On Demand: Spotify: https://spoti.fi/301gcES iTunes: http://apple.co/2dMURMq Amazon: https://amzn.to/3afgEXZ SoundCloud: http://bit.ly/2dTMD13 Google Play: https://bit.ly/2SMi1SF BitChute: https://bit.ly/2vNSMFq Rumble: https://bit.ly/31h2HUg Kick: https://kick.com/quitefranklytv
Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers says there is about a 50% chance of a recession this year. He discussed this and more with Bloomberg's David Westin on Bloomberg Television.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Former US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin sits down with Bloomberg's David Rubenstein at the Bloomberg Invest Conference in New York City. They discuss taxes, strength of the dollar, private equity and more.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers joined Bloomberg's Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz on "Balance of Power" to discuss President Donald Trump's address to Congress, the impact of tariffs on the economy, the Department of Government Efficiency and threats to the US dollar.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks on Donald Trump's meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to the White House and his thoughts on tariffs. He speaks with Bloomberg's David WestinSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
US President Donald Trump says he will impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports on Monday—a move that will have the biggest impact on Canada. Is tech failure at a multinational corporation and putting customers offline for a few hours worse than a cyberattack at a small company in one city? We hear about major disruptions to IT systems and how difficult it is to assess the most damage. The US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, has been told to stop minting one-cent coins, or pennies, by US President Donald Trump in an announcement on social media. So, is this the end of the one-cent coin, and what difference does that make if one cent won't buy you very much? We hear experts' thoughts.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discusses Treasury Department concerns with Bloomberg's Saleha Mohsin. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
US Treasury Secretary-nominee Bessent is a more orthodox cabinet nominee. Yesterday's confirmation hearings saw generally articulate answers. The responses on trade taxes were troubling. Bessent's idea that an appreciating currency offsets tariffs is not supported by recent evidence. The idea that US workers will not pay trade taxes is wrong. As he's an intelligent individual, these views may reflect the beliefs of the incoming administration, not Bessent's understanding.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen discusses broad-based tariffs, Russian sanctions, and Ukraine loans with Bloomberg's David Gura.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The US has just overcome one abrupt spike in inflation, which may have cost Kamala Harris her bid for the presidency. But now President-elect Donald Trump's policy agenda threatens to cause another one. That's according to Larry Summers, the former US Treasury Secretary and President Emeritus of Harvard University. He speaks to the FT's Martin Wolf – who is standing in for Soumaya Keynes while she is on maternity leave – about the risks to economic stability posed by Trump's proposed tax cuts, trade tariffs and mass expulsion of illegal immigrants, as well as his threats to the rule of law.Martin Wolf is chief economics commentator at the Financial Times. You can find his column hereSubscribe to The Economics Show on Apple, Spotify, Pocket Casts or wherever you listen.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Today's guest is the new US Treasury Secretary, serving under Donald Trump. The role gives him immense responsibility for managing US obligations and finances, including circa. $7 trillion of annual US federal spending, the $35+ trillion fiscal debt pile and continued inflationary pressures on both US businesses and consumers. Prior to this, Scott was a globally respected and market-moving hedge fund investor. He was key player on the George Soros's team, who in 1992 helped the Quantum Fund make $1bn, shorting sterling ahead of the UK's withdrawal from the ERM. Then, as Soros's CIO, he was also dubbed ‘The Man Who Broke the Bank of Japan' by the Wall Street Journal, making approximately $3.5bn on the Abenomics trade from 2012-2015! Scott is widely acknowledged to be one of the world's most highly respected macro hedge fund managers, and is the Founder of Key Square Capital Management. He has also taught financial history at Yale and is a prominent philanthropist. In this episode, Scott explains the key ingredients in being a macro manager. He charts his journey, working with legendary investors such as Stan Druckenmiller and George Soros. He opines on a range of key investment themes, including his thoughts on de-dollarisation, debt, commodities, the Ukraine rebuild, and AI. He also shares his analysis of the fast-evolving markets in both China and Japan. Scott goes on to discuss risk, when and how he sizes positions, signposts that influence conviction, and dealing with information overload. A tour de force! Interview originally recorded in September 2023. The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors, World Gold Council and LSEG. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube
On this week's Spectator Out Loud: Kate Andrews examines the appointment of Scott Bessent as US Treasury Secretary (1:20); Mark Galeotti highlights Putin's shadow campaign across Europe (7:10); Adrian Pascu-Tulbure reports on the surprising rise of Romania's Calin Georgescu (15:45); Michael Hann reviews Irish bands Kneecap and Fontaines D.C. (22:54); and Olivia Potts provides her notes on London's Smithfield Market, following the news it may close (27:28). Produced and presented by Patrick Gibbons.
On this week's Spectator Out Loud: Kate Andrews examines the appointment of Scott Bessent as US Treasury Secretary (1:20); Mark Galeotti highlights Putin's shadow campaign across Europe (7:10); Adrian Pascu-Tulbure reports on the surprising rise of Romania's Calin Georgescu (15:45); Michael Hann reviews Irish bands Kneecap and Fontaines D.C. (22:54); and Olivia Potts provides her notes on London's Smithfield Market, following the news it may close (27:28). Produced and presented by Patrick Gibbons.
Manpreet speaks with Fook Hien about what we can learn from Bessent's nomination as US Treasury Secretary and what his proposed policies mean for investorsSpeaker:- Manpreet Gill, CIO of Africa, Middle East & Europe (AME/E) and Head of Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) Strategy, Standard Chartered Bank- Fook Hien Yap, Senior Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered BankFor more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go or subscribe to Standard Chartered Wealth Insights on YouTube.
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Trump's New Tariff Plans and Their Impact on TradeDonald Trump is taking bold steps to address migration and drug trade concerns by imposing additional tariffs. Trump plans to add a 10% tariff on imported goods from China and 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada. The tariffs are part of a broader effort to discourage migration and curb drug trafficking. These new tariffs would complement his earlier plans for 60% tariffs on Chinese imports and 20% on global imports.US Winter Wheat Conditions Improve with RainfallUS winter wheat conditions improved dramatically last week thanks to recent rainfall across the High Plains. The crop is now rated 55% good to excellent, a marked improvement from 49% the prior week and 45% on average. The 17% improvement since the end of October is the best for this time of year since 2018. Only 12% of the crop is rated poor to very poor, down from 23% last month.Brazil Soybean Planting Near CompletionBrazil's soybean planting is nearing completion, with 86% of the expected area already planted by last Thursday. This is up from 80% the previous week and significantly ahead of last year's pace of 74%. US Halts Mexican Cattle Imports Due to Screwworm DiscoveryThe US has halted Mexican cattle imports after the discovery of New World screwworm in a cow near the Guatemalan border in Chiapas, Mexico. This parasite causes severe infections and can infest both animals and humans. As Mexico is the largest source of US cattle imports, this halt is expected to dramatically reduce the supply of feeder cattle, sending futures soaring to their highest levels since July. Imports from Mexico, which were up 21.3% this year, are expected to be restricted for at least the next month.Coffee Futures Surge Amid Supply ConcernsCoffee futures saw a significant surge on Monday, with Arabica coffee climbing 3% to its highest level since 1997. Robusta futures also hit their highest since the 1970s. Concerns over supply shortages in Brazil and Vietnam are driving prices up. While Brazil experienced heavy rains in October, earlier hot and dry conditions have damaged coffee trees, impacting the upcoming season's production. The USDA forecasts Brazil's coffee stockpiles to fall 26% by the end of the season, exacerbating concerns.Scott Bessent Expected to Soften Trump's Economic PoliciesFinancial markets reacted positively to Scott Bessent's appointment as US Treasury Secretary. Bessent, the founder of Key Square Group, is expected to advocate for a more gradual use of tariffs and a focus on economic growth through regulation reduction. His appointment has led to a rise in currencies worldwide, with investors anticipating a softer stance on some of Trump's more extreme economic policies. US Soybean and Corn Export Sales UpdateUS soybean shipments declined last week, with 2.1 million metric tons (77 million bushels) inspected for export, a 7.3% drop from the previous week. However, they are still +34% higher compared to the same week last year. On the other hand, corn exports soared, reaching 903,049 metric tons (36 million bushels), which is +115% higher than last year. Wheat exports were also strong, with 360,513 metric tons (13 million bushels) sold, a +25% increase from the same week last year.
Markets reacted to the nomination of Scott Bessent as the next US Treasury Secretary on Monday, with the dollar pulling back from two-year highs and US Treasury yields falling. US stocks rose, led by small caps which hit an intraday high, while European markets were mixed. A survey showed a drop in German business confidence and ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane called for gradual interest rate cuts. Other notable developments include UniCredit's attempted takeover of Banco BPM; a potential deal to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict; and President-elect Trump's plan to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, says Bitcoin has established itself as a global macro asset this year.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)06:11 Digital assets: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)09:38 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Will the appointment of the US Treasury Secretary help settle the Aussie dollar?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
President-elect Donald Trump said he is nominating Scott Bessent, who runs macro hedge fund Key Square Group, as the next US Treasury Secretary, enlisting a key adviser to manage the sweeping economic agenda he has vowed to enact in a second term. Bloomberg Balance of Power hosts Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz offer instant reaction.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
On today's podcast: 1) Ukraine hits Russia with US made missiles for the first time 2) Donald Trump may be getting closer to choosing a Treasury secretary 3) Ken Griffin and Ted Pick flag concerns about tariffs See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Episode 455: Toby and Kyle recap the big fight over the weekend – not the one with Jake Paul & Mike Tyson – but with viewers and Netflix as people took to social media to express their frustration of the glitchy broadcast. Then, some dissension between Trump and Musk over who should be the next US Treasury Secretary. Next, a settlement between Warner Bros. Discovery and the NBA is reached to keep content on its platform, including the hit show “Inside the NBA”. Meanwhile, AI transparency and spam call declines are the weekend's biggest winners. Lastly, important news to know in the upcoming week ahead. Download the Yahoo! Finance App (on the Play and App store) for real-time alerts on news and insights tailored to your portfolio and stock watchlists. Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Get your Morning Brew Book of Crosswords HERE: shop.morningbrew.com Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
On a July 15 episode of the show we discussed the history of political assassinations in the United States, with nearly every Presidential attempt or success putting a Republican as the victim - the same goes for the first member of congress to be assassinated. In all high-profile cases whatsoever the motivation revolves around or directly centers on the limiting of power held by big banks, be it directly in the case of Andrew Jackson or indirectly with Abraham Lincoln and the issue of slavery. Now there has been a second assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, after the Thomas Crooks, 28, one failed on July 13 at a campaign rally where Secret Service stood down. This one involved Ryan Wesley Routh, 58, who attempted to kill Trump at a golf course in West Palm Beach, Florida. This also comes after two stories in August where both Trump's plane and VP pick J. D. Vance's plane suffered mechanical issues and had to engage in emergency landingings. And it comes after a possible chemical attack in Tucson on a Trump rally on September 12. Where Crooks was recruited through Black Rock, and was in a video for Larry Fink, Routh, a registered Democrat, is an active recruiter of soldiers for the war in Ukraine, essentially making him an employee of NATO. This assassination attempt occurred September 15, a few days after the US and NATO opened the door to long-range strikes on Russian targets in the home country, an obvious declaration of full-on war. Despite the connections to Black Rock and NATO, Trump reportedly, has selected Larry Fink to be US Treasury Secretary, or maybe someone from JP Morgan - though he has denied this. There is something else going on here, obscured by political zealotry, ideology, and bias. It all has the markings of some 1984-intelligence community, especially after Google scrubbed searches for any mention of the first assassination attempt and celebrities denied it was real; now the same thing is happening a second time with memes. But this doesn't mean we can just play a game of repel and attract. We can all agree that governments and the media lie, but to what extent? Perhaps the goal of openly deceptive governing and reporting is to shift the burden of plausible deniability to the public, i.e., tell them the truth and they will manufacture the conspiracy, the big lie, and the false narrative themselves. The secret insiders like Q Anon then give you the ‘truth' which is really another ‘lie'. -FREE ARCHIVE & RSS: https://www.spreaker.com/show/the-secret-teachings Twitter: https://twitter.com/TST___Radio Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thesecretteachings WEBSITE (BOOKS, RESUBSCRIBE for early show access): http://thesecretteachings.info Paypal: rdgable@yahoo.com CashApp: $rdgable EMAIL: rdgable@yahoo.com / TSTRadio@protonmail.com
Former US Treasury secretary and Wall Street Week contributor Larry Summers discusses the marketplace turmoil. Summers speaks with Bloomberg's David Westin.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Joe Biden has DROPPED OUT of the 2024 Presidential Race in America! Blackock CEO Larry Fink is rumored to be the next US Treasury Secretary and Crypto is PUMPING! Welcome to The Basement! In this show, we discuss trending cryptocurrency news with a sprinkle of politics, economics, and pop-culture.
Lawrence H. Summers, former US Treasury Secretary and Bloomberg Television contributor, says that college protests happening throughout the country are 'very depressing and worrying for me'. Summers also spoke about the restrictiveness of Fed policy and the state of yen intervention. He speaks with host David Westin on the latest edition of "Bloomberg Wall Street Week".See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Our experts discuss U.S. dollar strength and its far-reaching impact on the global economy and the world's stock markets.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income Research.James Lord: I'm James Lord, Head of FX Strategy for Emerging Markets.David Adams: And I'm Dave Adams, Head of G10 FX Strategy.Michael Zezas: And on this episode of Thoughts on the Market, we'll discuss one of the most debated topics in world markets right now, the strength of the US dollar.It's Wednesday, May 1st, at 3 pm in London.Michael Zezas: Currencies around the world are falling as a strong US dollar continues its reign. This is an unusual situation. So much so that the finance ministers of Japan, South Korea, and the United States released a joint statement last month to address the effects being felt in Asia. The US dollar's dominance can have vast implications for the global economy and the world stock markets.So, I wanted to sit down with my colleagues, James and David, who are Morgan Stanley's currency strategy experts for emerging markets and developed markets. James, just how dominant is the US dollar right now and what's driving the strength?James Lord: So, we should distinguish between the role the US dollar plays as the world's dominant reserve currency and its value, which can go up and down for other reasons.Right now, the dollar remains just as dominant in the international monetary system as it has been over the past several decades, whilst it also happens to be very strong in terms of its value, as you mentioned. That strength in its value is really being driven by the continued outperformance of the US economy and the ongoing rise in US interest rates, while growth in the rest of the world is more subdued.The dollar's international role remains dominant simply because no other economy or market can match the depth of the US capital markets and the liquidity that it provides, both as a means of raising capital, but also as a store of value for investment; while also offering the strong protection of property rights, strong sovereign credit ratings, the rule of law, and an open capital account. There simply isn't another market that can challenge the US in that respect.Michael Zezas: And can you talk a bit more specifically about the various ways in which the dollar impacts the global economy?James Lord: So, one of the strongest impacts is through the price of the dollar, and the price of dollar debt, which have an impact beyond the borders of the US economy. Because the majority of foreign currency denominated debt that corporates outside of the US issue is denominated in US dollars, the interest rate that's set by the US Federal Reserve has a big impact on the cost of borrowing. It's also the same for many emerging market sovereigns that also issue heavily in US dollars. The US dollar is also used heavily in international trade, cross border lending, because the majority of international trade is denominated in US dollars. So, when US interest rates rise, it also tightens monetary conditions for the rest of the world. That is why the US Federal Reserve is often referred to as the world's central bank, even though Fed only sets policy with respect to the US economy.And the US dollar strengthens, as it has been over the past 10 years, it also makes it more challenging for countries that borrow in dollars to repay that debt, unless they have enough dollar assets.Again, that's another tightening of financial conditions for the rest of the world. I think it was a US Treasury Secretary from several decades ago who said that the US dollar is our currency, but your problem. And that neatly sums up the global influence the US dollar has.Michael Zezas: And David, nothing seems to typify the strength of the US dollar recently, like the currency moves we're seeing with the Japanese Yen. It looks very weak at the moment, and yet the Japanese stock market is very strong.David Adams: Yeah, weak is an understatement for the Japanese yen. In nominal terms, the yen is at its weakest level versus the dollar since 1990. And if we look in real terms, it hasn't been this weak since the late 1960s. Why it's weak is pretty easy to explain, though. It's monetary policy divergence. Theory tells us that as long as capital is free to move, a country can't both control its interest rates and control the exchange rate at the same time.G10 economies typically choose to control rates and leave their currencies to float, and the US and Japan are no exception. So, while the while the Fed's policy rate has risen to multi-decade highs, Japan's has been left basically unchanged, consistent with its economic fundamentals.Now, you mentioned Japanese equities, which is also increasingly important to this story. As foreign investors have deployed more cash into the Japanese stock market, a lot of them have hedged their FX [foreign exchange] exposure, which means they're buying back dollars in the forward market. The more that Japanese equities rise, the more hedges they add, increasing dollar demand versus the yen.So, put simply, the best outcome for dollar yen to keep rising is for US rates versus Japan and Japanese equities to both keep marching higher. And for a lot of investors, this seems increasingly like their base case.Michael Zezas: That makes sense. And yet, despite the dollar's clear dominance at the moment, the consensus view on the dollar is that it's going to get weaker. Why is that the case and what's the market missing?James Lord: Yeah, the consensus has been on the wrong side of the dollar call for quite a few years now, with a persistently bearish outlook, which has largely been incorrect. I think for the most part this is because the consensus has underestimated the strength of the US economy. It wasn't that long ago when the consensus was calling for a hard landing in the US economy and a pretty deep easing cycle from the Fed. And yet here we are with GDP growth north of 2 per cent and murmurings of another rate hike entering the narrative. I also wonder whether this debate about de-dollarization, whereby the dollar's global influence starts to wane, has impacted the sentiment of forecasters a bit as well.We have seen over the past three to four years much more noise in the media on this topic, and there appears to be a correlation between the extent to which the consensus is expecting dollar weakness and the number of media articles that are discussing the dollar's status as the world's major reserve currency.Maybe that's coincidence, but it's also consistent with our view that the market generally worries too much about this issue and the impact that it could have on the dollar's outlook.Michael Zezas: Now there've been a few notable changes to Morgan Stanley's macro forecasts over the last few weeks. Our US economist, Ellen Zentner revised up her forecast for US growth and inflation. And she also pushed back our expectations for the first Fed cut. Along with this, our US rate strategy team also revised their 10-year treasury yield expectations higher. Do these updates to the macro-outlook impact your bullish view on the dollar, both near term and longer term?David Adams: So, higher US rates are often helpful for the dollar, but we think some nuance is required. It's not that US rates are moving; it's why they're moving. And our four-regime dollar framework shows that increases or decreases in rates can give us very different dollar outcomes depending on the reason why rates are moving.So far this year, rates have been moving higher in a pretty benign risk environment. And in a world where US real interest rates rise alongside equities; the dollar tends to go nowhere in the aggregate. It gains versus low yielding funders like the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, and the euro, but it tends to weaken versus those higher beta currencies with positive carry, like the Mexican peso. It's why we've been neutral on the dollar overall since the start of the year, but we still emphasize dollar strength, especially versus the euro.If rising rates were to start weighing on equities, that would lead the dollar to start rallying broadly, what we call Regime 3 of our framework. It's not our base case, but it's a risk we think markets are starting to get more nervous about. It suggests that the balance of risks are increasingly towards a higher dollar rather than a lower one.Michael Zezas: And finally, Dave, I wanted to ask about potential risks to the US dollar's current strength.David Adams: I'd say the clearest dollar negative risk for me is a rebound in European and Chinese growth. It's hard for investors to get excited about selling the dollar without a clear alternative to buy. A big rebound in rest of world growth could easily make those alternatives look more attractive, though how probable that outcome is remains debatable.Michael Zezas: Got it. So, this discussion of risk to the strong dollar may be a good time to pause. There's so much more to talk about here. We've barely scratched the surface. So, let's continue the conversation in the near future when we can talk more about the dollar status as the world's dominant reserve currency and potential challenges to that position.James Lord: This sounds like a great idea, Mike. Talk to you soon.David Adams: Likewise. Thanks for having me on the show and look forward to our next conversation.Michael Zezas: As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen to podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stresses the importance of maintaining trade relationships and dialogue between the nations, as she spoke to reporters in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou. China accuses the West of feeling threatened by their cheaper exports to developing economies, but Yellen stands by her assessment that China is saturating the markets, driving down competitors. Also, in the programme, we will talk about Google and how its search engine is powered by artificial intelligence.....
Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers gives his take on Chair Powell's remarks with Bloomberg's David Westin.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
00:07 | Stripe 2024 revenue at $17b?, only 3.8x multiple!- $1 trillion in 2023 total payment volume, +25% vs 2022- Stripe 15yrs vs PayPal 23yrs to get to $1t- Estimated $17b in 2023 revenue, positive cash flow- $65b Feb 2024 tender, 3.8x revenue multiple is a steal02:19 | Telegram's $30b valuation!- 900m monthly active users, +80% vs 2021; on track for 1b users by Dec 2024- "hundreds of millions of dollars" from advertising and subscriptions revenue- $30b valuation from investors- Seeking IPO to maintain independence and drive company valuation04:12 | SpaceX Starship successful 3rd test-flight- Starship is 400 feet tall, powered by 33 rockets- 5x payload of current Falcon9 rocket with lower cost per launch; incremental revenue AND profit- Starlink estimated to have a $103b valuation ($3.4b in annual recurring revenue?)06:24 | Tiktok US at $153b valuation if standalone biz?- Steven Mnuchin, former US Treasury Secretary, seeks to buy TikTok- US government is reviewing a bill that would require ByteDance to divest TikTok US biz- TikTok US has 170m users- ByteDance 2023 revenue is $120b (+20% vs 2022) and a $268b valuation, only a 2.4x revenue multiple (LOW!)- TikTok US has $16b of 2023 revenue, applying Meta revenue multiple (9.58x) it's a $153b valuation business- Massive valuation unlock position for TikTok US by getting out of the ByteDance negative overhang?09:09 | Pre-IPO +3.28% for week, +3.23% for last 1yr- Week winners: Chime +28.6%, eToro +21.9%, ScaleAI +20.5%, Ramp +12.3%, Flexport +7.2%- Week losers: Consensys -9.8%, OpenAI -4.5%, ByteDance -3.1%, Rippling -2.1%, Chainalysis -1.7%- Top valuations: ByteDance $276b, SpaceX $184b, OpenAI $103b, Stripe $68b, Databricks $49b
Former US Treasury Secretary and Bloomberg Wall Street Week contributor Larry Summers talks about the January jobs report, and why he thinks a Fed rate cut in March isn't likely. He speaks with host David Westin on the latest edition of Bloomberg Wall Street Week.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The US Treasury Secretary says inflation is being tamed without significant damage to the labour market. We take a look at the figures. While officials see a positive economic outlook for the US economy, Americans aren't sharing that view on the so called 'Bidenomics'. Our correspondent in New York finds out why. And Guyana seems to have found a new partner to exploit its recent crude discoveries in the Essequibo region: India. We listen to the implications this might have on the dispute between this South American nation and Venezuela over the oil-rich territory.
Dave and Chuck the Freak talk about things that make no damn sense, Premium YouTube and other streaming services prices going up, a woman hired a snake charmer to kill her boyfriend, a family dealing with a neighbor that is throwing poop at their home, a 14-year-old that attempted to break into a gun store, a guy broke into a bar so he could steal a beer cause he couldn't wait for them to open, a 90-year-old man becomes the world's oldest bodybuilder, a woman who had plastic surgery to get dimples, US Treasury Secretary ate ‘psychedelic mushrooms' during official visit to China, Ask D&CtF: did a listener miss a happy ending opportunity during a massage, how should a listener handle farting the first time he slept with a woman, an America themed amusement park opening in Oklahoma, and more! CONNECT WITH DAVE & CHUCK THE FREAK www.instagram.com/daveandchuckthefreak www.twitter.com/daveandchuck www.facebook.com/daveandchuckthefreakfans www.daveandchuckthefreak.com/ Or email the show: email@daveandchuckthefreak.com
On today's podcast, the US Treasury Secretary visits Vietnam; Israeli officials want to move a man from his cave after 50 years; a close study of grammar in a popular Lana Del Rey song followed by a discussion about ‘think twice'; then hear about Wrangell-St. Elias National Park.
The US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, says four days of talks in China have helped create a healthier relationship between Washington and Beijing. Also on the programme, the three-month conflict in Sudan continues as an air-strike kills 22 in the residential are of Omdurman; and, the National Trust of Georgia has organised an unusual event making threatened buildings sing. (Photo: U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks during a press conference at the U.S. embassy in Beijing 09/07/2023 Reuters)
From the BBC World Service: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is set to visit Beijing this week as the US and China try to patch up a broken relationship. BBC China Media Analyst Kerry Allen gives the lowdown on how her trip could be received. Plus, an environmental campaign group claims the Anglo-Dutch energy giant, Shell, continues to trade Russian gas, more than a year after promising to pull out of the country. And Warren Bull reports on the hot topic of a shortage of Sriracha sauce.
In part 2 of today's episode, Andy & DJ discuss the Biden Administration saying that COVID-19 likely came from a lab leak, and America's treasury secretary Janet Yellen visiting Ukraine.