Moving Markets: Daily News

While US markets were closed yesterday for the Juneteenth holiday, the rest of the world did not escapemarket volatility. Global stocks fell as uncertainty surrounding the Israel-Iran conflict and potential US involvement continued. Meanwhile, central banks made their interest rate announcements: the Swiss National Bank cut its benchmark rate to 0%, whereas the Bank of England kept rates unchanged at 4.25%. This morning, oil prices have reversed slightly, trading lower; while gold is also down, putting it on track for a weekly loss. Joining us to discuss the latest developments in the US dollar, the Swiss franc, and precious metals is Tim Gagie, our Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva.(00:00) - Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) (00:31) - Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing) (06:26) - FX and metals markets by Tim Gagie (Head of FX/PM PB Geneva) (10:36) - Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets await clarity on US involvement in the Middle East conflict. The US Federal Reserve holds rates steady, citing inflation and tariff uncertainty. US bank stocks rise on deregulation hopes, while crypto stocks surge after stablecoin legislation passes. The Swiss National Bank will be the first major central bank to lower interest rates to 0% today. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, provides our latest views on the oil market amid the war in the Middle East. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, talks about two interesting markets amid all the uncertainty: Swiss mid-caps and Indian stocks.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing (05:17) - Oil: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (09:30) - Equity markets: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy (13:32) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Donald Trump says he wants a “real end” to the nuclear dispute with Iran, rather than just a ceasefire in the conflict with Israel, and demands “unconditional surrender”. The escalating tensions and another set of weak US macro data triggered a risk-off sentiment, weighing on equities and boosting oil prices. As the Federal Reserve prepares to announce its interest rate decision later today, investors remain cautious amidst heightened volatility in the energy market and growing concerns about a broader crisis in the Middle East. To provide insight into the implications of these events on bond markets, we have Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, on the show who shares his expectations for the US central bank's actions in the coming months.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing (05:39) - Bond markets: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (10:46) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US and European equity markets rallied on Monday, closing their sessions in positive territory. However, after President Trump called for the immediate evacuation of Tehran and decided to abandon the G7 summit to return to Washington, futures turned south. With the exception of Japan, most Asian equity markets turned in a nervous performance overnight as markets wait to see what direction the Israel/Iran situation takes next. US data and tomorrow's FOMC decision will also be closely monitored. On todays' show, Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides an update on digital assets where demand is strong and he sees a healthy derivatives market.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:48) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (06:54) - Digital assets: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (11:01) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

As geopolitical tensions escalate, with Iran and Israel continuing to trade retaliatory blows, direct US involvement has so far been avoided. The sell-off in equities remains relatively contained, while the safe havens of gold, oil and the Swiss franc see inflows. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, offers his thoughts from a technical perspective on the US dollar weakness and the recent rebound in oil.(00:00) - Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) (00:28) - Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) (07:25) - Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis) (09:46) - Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Oil prices are surging up to 10%, while equity futures are declining. Safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasuries are gaining traction. Overall, the initial market reaction to the escalation of hostilities in the Middle East is relatively contained, except for oil, as the situation remains fluid and uncertain. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks about what to expect from the US, UK, Japanese, and Swiss central banks next week. Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking Geneva, discusses the Middle East crisis and its potential short-term impact on the US dollar, which is close to a multi-year low, and gold, which is approaching its all-time high. He also comments on platinum amid a supply/demand imbalance.(00:00) - Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) (01:01) - Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) (05:43) - Bond market update by Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research) (10:19) - FX and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX/PM PB Geneva) (14:13) - Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Although the US trade deal with China is ‘done', according to President Trump, the worst is not yet over for other countries. They can expect to receive a letter from Trump outlining his terms for trade in the coming weeks. Renewed trade tensions and escalating conflicts in the Middle East are dampening investor sentiment. Yesterday, stock markets saw a broad decline, while oil and gold prices rose. Also on the show today is our Group Chief Investment Officer, Yves Bonzon, who offers valuable insights into the current market landscape. Additionally, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, provides an update on the evolving dynamics in the commodities market.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing (07:18) - Market update (macro update, USD, gold): Yves Bonzon, Group CIO (16:01) - Commodities update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (22:25) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US-China trade talks continue to progress positively and may conclude soon, but have still yet to reach an agreement. Optimism among investors has led to stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region rallying today, with tech stocks in particular leading the charge. Also on today's podcast, we are joined by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who provides us with an update on equity markets and offers his outlook for how investors should position themselves for the rest of the year.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:55) - Markets wrap-up: Jonti Warris, Investment Writing (06:32) - Equity markets update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy (10:34) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US representatives including US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with China's vice premier and lead trade negotiator He Lifeng in London yesterday. Both sides have temporarily slashed tariffs to allow the talks to progress following President Trump's phone conversation with the Chinese President Xi Jinping last Thursday. As the talks enter day two, US and Asian stock markets are cautiously optimistic. Indeed, the MSCI China Index has now rallied sufficiently to enter a bull market. Meanwhile, the markets will also be watching US inflation data tomorrow for indications regarding the next move by the Fed at their meeting next week. With Bitcoin rallying to less than 2% shy of the record high, Manual Villegas from Next Generation Research joins the podcast with all the latest news on stablecoins and the opportunities and challenges facing those who invest in them.(00:00) - Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) (00:28) - Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) (06:16) - Digital assets – stablecoins by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research) (11:46) - Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US equities closed lower after choppy trading on Thursday, although they ended off worst levels. This followed three straight daily gains for the S&P 500, and major indices remain on track for modest weekly gains. Yesterday, big tech was mixed but Tesla notably lagged as Musk and Trump's public war of words escalated. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank cut rates as expected, but surprised markets with a more hawkish tone, casting doubt on the likelihood of another rate cut in July. Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking in Geneva, discusses what this means for the euro and how to position for today's US payrolls.(00:00) - Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) (00:25) - Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing) (05:34) - FX and metals markets by Tim Gagie (Head of FX/PM PB Geneva) (10:02) - Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The MSCI All-Country World Index is back at a new all-time high. The German government announcement of a EUR 46 billion tax relief package boosted European investor confidence, propelling the German DAX to a new high. US private-sector labour market data revealed weak job growth, triggering a sharp decline in US Treasury yields. In Asian markets, China's services sector showed signs of growth, while Japan's economy was affected by declining inflation-adjusted earnings for the fourth consecutive month. Today, attention turns to the European Central Bank. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, talks about the tectonic shifts in the oil and gas markets and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Office, discusses what the US equity market recovery and the USD weakness mean for investors.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:30) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing (05:39) - Oil update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (10:14) - Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis (14:28) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The S&P500 index now is at the brink of entering technical bull market territory, up nearly 20% since its lows after ‘Liberation Day'. Yesterday, equity markets rose, fuelled by a surprise fall of inflation in Europe, good labour market data in the US, a perceived easing of trade tensions and some AI chips-excitement following Meta's energy deal. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, joins us to share his views on where yields go and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, speaks about the point at which yield levels start to trouble equity markets.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing (06:34) - Bond Market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (11:18) - Equity strategy update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy (15:33) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

With Trump imposing new import tariffs on steel and aluminium, prices of the two metals on the US physical market have soared, lifting shares of domestic steelmakers. However, there is still a glimmer of hope on the trade front, with reports emerging that Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are set to hold talks ‘very soon'. Meanwhile, stock markets around the world have seen some volatility as investors digest the latest manufacturing activity data. Treasury yields, which have been in the spotlight recently, remained stable overnight after strong demand was seen at a 10-year Japanese government bond auction. Joining us on the show today is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research, who gives us an update on digital assets.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing (07:30) - Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (11:34) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US action was somewhat muted on Friday, although indices closed the month of May comfortably higher. President Trump announced that he was doubling import tariffs on steel and aluminium. He also accused China of breaking the Geneva agreement. China has responded today to say that they have not. Markets in Asia are mostly lower this morning on the back of this, and US futures point to a lower open today. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins the show to discuss the relevance, or not, of that age-old adage: ‘Sell in May and go away'.(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (05:36) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:52) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The US economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025, fueling ongoing recession concerns amidst escalating trade tensions and mixed economic indicators. Technology giant NVIDIA posted strong quarterly results, providing a much-needed boost to market sentiment. US courts are deliberating on the authority to impose tariffs, with the decision pending between President Trump and the Senate. President Trump held his first meeting with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell since taking office, marking a significant encounter. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the US-China trade negotiations as "a bit stalled," which is exerting downward pressure on Asian markets today. Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Sales in Geneva, notes that the US dollar remained range-bound throughout the week and provides his thoughts on the tariff news.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:27,5 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)06:04 FX and metals markets by Tim Gagie (Head of FX/PM PB Geneva)10:04 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

US stock markets played catch-up yesterday after a long holiday weekend. A boost in consumer confidence in both the US and Germany also contributed to the upbeat market mood, as did reports that the US is nearing the signing of new trade deals, potentially as early as this week. In the Asia-Pacific region overnight, equity markets delivered a mixed performance, with South Korea posting the strongest gains, driven largely by a surge in semiconductor stocks as investors positioned themselves ahead of Nvidia's earnings report later today. Meanwhile, shifts in longer-dated government bond yields remain the dominant theme in fixed income. To shed more light on the latest developments, we are joined today by Dario Messi, our Head of Fixed Income Research.00:00 Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing01:01 Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing07:31 Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research12:06 Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Trade tensions took centre stage again, as President Donald Trump delayed the imposition of 50% tariffs on the EU until early July. The move sparked a relief rally in European markets, while the US dollar fell to its lowest level since 2022. Trading volumes remained subdued due to holidays in the US and UK markets. Meanwhile, Japan's long-term yields declined as the Ministry of Finance is apparently considering reducing bond issuance, which would be a potential boost for stocks and the yen. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, joins us to discuss his insights on the potential investment case for digital assets and he also provides an update on AI.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing (06:33) - Digital assets and AI update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (13:24) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US President Donald Trump says he has agreed to postpone the imposition of 50% tariffs on European Union imports until 9 July as the EU continues to negotiate a trade deal with Washington. European equity futures are higher on the news. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, offers his thoughts from a technical perspective on the current US dollar weakness and the steepening Treasury yield curve.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)07:13 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)10:53 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Yesterday's trading session saw significant volatility in Treasury yields after the US House of Representatives approved President Trump's major tax reform bill. This occurred amidst mixed macroeconomic data from the US. European stocks closed lower, while key US indices finished the day mixed around the zero line. Meanwhile, in Asia, one of the top stories overnight was the first phone call between the US and China since their meeting in Geneva. Asian markets were broadly higher. Bitcoin reached new record highs due to a combination of factors. To discuss the latest developments in the US dollar, platinum, and other foreign exchange and precious metals news, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking in Geneva.00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing00:28 Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing07:43 FX/Metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva11:12 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US markets began yesterday's trading session on a weak footing, with sentiment deteriorating further as the day progressed. Concerns over a further widening of the US budget deficit, coupled with a disappointing US Treasury auction, led to a rise in yields and credit spreads, which in turn weighed on equity prices. In contrast, European markets defied the trend, with the German DAX index reaching a new record high. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, offers his insights into the recently remarkable performance of the industrial metal copper.00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing00:24 Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing06:37 Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research10:55 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

While European equities had another strong day yesterday, US equities took a breather following an impressive rally from their April lows. US Treasury yields near recent highs, along with the fiscal situation in the US, remain concerns for investors and weigh on sentiment and the dollar. A report about a potential attack by Israel on Iran's nuclear facilities supported flows into traditional safe-haven assets such as the Swiss franc, the yen, and gold. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks about the recent rating downgrade of the US by Moody's and about the investment implications of the US fiscal situation. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, discusses what that means for equity investors and why they should think more globally.00:00 Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing00:27 Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing05:16 Impact of Moody's downgrade: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research08:51 The outlook for developed-market equities: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy13:25 Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US stocks managed to eke out a slim gain yesterday, with the S&P 500 index notching its sixth consecutive winning session, as investors sought to look past the Moody's downgrade of the United States' credit rating. Meanwhile, stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region are trading in the green after China cut its lending rate, which has fuelled some broad-based up moves across the region. Also on today's podcast, we are joined by Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, who provides insights into his expectations for Chineseand Japanese equity markets.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)05:52 Asia update by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)12:44 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

The Nasdaq surged 7% last week, driven by the US-China trade truce and President Trump's USD 2 trillion Middle East deals. Novo Nordisk's CEO resigned, and Moody's downgraded the US credit rating due to rising deficits. In China, retail sales grew 5.1% year-on-year, despite slowing industrial output. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, notes that the short-term US equity market recovery remains intact, even as the USD remains in a bear market.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:28 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)05:58 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)08:16 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Global equities ended Thursday's trading session mostly higher, with defensive and defence stocks leading the gains while big tech was mostly lower. This came while Walmart's CEO warned yesterday that tariffs would force it to raise prices this year - even after the recent decrease in duties on China - and data included softer US producer prices as well as underwhelming retail sales. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks about what this means for bond markets and why he would cut the allocation to higher-risk segments. And Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking Geneva, discusses his expectations for a weaker Swiss franc and highlights his preferred currency pair.00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing00:31 Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing06:22 Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research10:49 FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva15:12 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

European markets closed lower on Wednesday after the positive sentiment induced by the weekend's interim trade deal between China and the US seemed to run of steam. The Dow Jones closed in the red, although the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed the day slightly higher, mainly driven by the mega-cap names and a few select beneficiaries of President Trump's trade deals in Doha. US Treasury prices and gold felt the effect of easing trade tensions, as well as the market revising its expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2025. Asia's equity markets were lower today. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to provide extra insight into gold's move lower.00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing00:24 Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing05:47 Gold: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research09:16 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US markets rallied on the back of a US-China trade truce and lower-than-expected inflation data, easing recession concerns and boosting equities. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices rose, driven by gains in tech stocks, such as Nvidia and AMD, following a major semiconductor deal with a Saudi Arabian AI firm. In Asia, Hong Kong's market gained ground following strong earnings from JD.com, whereas Japan's Nikkei 225 experienced a slight decline after a 13-day uptrend. Looking ahead, European shares are poised to open flat, building on the previous day's positive session, which was fuelled by improved sentiment in Germany and a record high for the DAX. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, observes that Q1 earnings have exceeded expectations, but companies are issuing cautious guidance due to reduced visibility on the economic outlook.00:00 Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing00:27 Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing06:47 Earnings/Equity Market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy11:08 Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

After the US and China both slashed their reciprocal tariff rates, US markets responded with jubilation yesterday, sparking an impressive rally with the S&P 500 building on its recent run as investors priced out the chance of a downturn. Also on today's podcast, we are joined by David Meier, Senior Economist, who shares his insights on the impact of recent trade talks, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who provides an update on the outlook for digital assets following the recent recovery in crypto markets.00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing00:38 Markets wrap-up: Jonti Warris, Investment Writing06:13 Trade talks progress: Dave Meier, Senior Economist12:41 Digital assets update: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research16:44 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The United States and China have taken a step towards resolving their trade dispute, with both sides describing their initial talks in Switzerland this weekend as constructive. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned substantial progress, lifting equity markets in Asia and boosting investor sentiment. Meanwhile, safe havens like gold are feeling the pressure. Our guest, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins us to discuss where he sees the most upside as good news on the trade landscape keeps on rolling in, at least for now. Tune in to find out how these developments are moving markets.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:28 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)07:02 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)09:50 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

The US and the UK agreed a new trade deal yesterday, making the UK the first country to reach a deal with the US since US President Trump introduced new tariffs a month ago. Although this boosted global market sentiment, with US and European markets closing higher, UK stocks underperformed. The deal also weighed on safe-haven assets like US Treasuries and gold. Meanwhile, the Bank of England's rate cut by 25 basis points was seen as a supportive move for the UK economy. Asia-Pacific markets were largely higher overnight, buoyed by China's stronger-than-expected export growth in April and a narrowing import decline, which brings some relief to Beijing ahead of tariff talks with the US this weekend. Joining us to discuss the latest developments in foreign exchange and metals markets is Tim Gagie, Head of FX and Precious Metals Solutions in Geneva.00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing00:27 Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing07:26 FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva11:45 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting yesterday and Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that with inflation still running above target, the Fed has no intention of cutting rates pre-emptively. He also warned that if tariff levels remain where they are, then a risk is posed to economic growth and inflation. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, provides more insight into the Fed's decision making and its market impact on today's show and Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, provides a timely update on the oil market, sharing his insights into the latest market events.00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing00:38 Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing06:49 Oil update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research10:22 Bond market update post-Fed: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research17:36 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

It took two attempts, but German conservative leader Merz was elected chancellor by parliament on Tuesday after an unprecedented defeat on the first attempt got his coalition government off to a wobbly start. Market sentiment took another U-turn yesterday, with global equities falling back for a second day ahead of today's US Federal Reserve rate decision. News that trade negotiations are going well and that initial US and China trade talks will take place this Saturday did little to improve investors' mood. Richard Tang, Head of Research in Hong Kong, discusses how markets reacted to the news and provides more details on Beijing's policy measures as well as the geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan.00:00 Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing00:28 Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing06:09 Asia update: Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong14:29 Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US equities struggled yesterday as the S&P 500 index snapped its nine-day winning streak with a modest rotation into defensive stocks. Meanwhile, the broad US dollar sell-off against Asian currencies is fuelling speculation that regional economies are allowing their currencies to strengthen to gain leverage in US trade negotiations. Also on today's podcast, we are joined by Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research, who shares his insights on Japan as well as the recent outperformance of emerging markets relative to developed market equities.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)06:20 Japan and EM Asia equities by Nenad Dinic (Equity Strategy Research)12:04,8 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Global equity markets have largely recovered their losses since 2 April, or Liberation Day, with Australia, Mexico and Germany's DAX among the best performers. Warren Buffett will step down as the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at the end of the year after 45 years. Brent oil falls below USD 60 a barrel, a four-year low, after OPEC+ announces further supply increases. The Taiwan dollar has jumped 5% against the USD, its biggest intraday gain in 30 years, sparking speculation that Asian countries are seeking to revalue their currencies to win US trade concessions. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, notes that Germany's DAX index is within 2% of its all-time high, reflecting its relative strength against US equities.00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing00:31 Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing06:28 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis10:37 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Equity markets continued their multi-day rally yesterday with the S&P 500 nearing its ‘Liberation Day' level after the fastest 8-session gain since November 2020. The rally was driven by upbeat earnings from Microsoft and Meta. This optimism has continued overnight after China said it's evaluating trade talks with the US, boosting optimism that tariff tensions will come down. And we have Markus Waeber from Real Estate Advisory on the show today to talk about the strong April performance of the Swiss Real Estate market and the unchanged positive outlook.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:27,5 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)06:17 Real estate update by Markus Waeber (Head of Indirect Real Estate Advisory & Intelligence)11:03 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Donald Trump and his policies remain a key focus for investors, particularly today as he reaches his 100th day in office. Yesterday, Trump signed orders aimed at easing the pressure on carmakers, whilst Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinted that the US has secured a trade deal with an unnamed country, prompting a rise in US shares. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields have fallen for a seventh consecutive day, driven by weak economic data that has fuelled speculation the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates to avoid a recession. Overnight, macroeconomic data from China and Japan was released, with both countries reporting lower-than-expected figures, suggesting early signs of damage from the ongoing trade war. A closer look at individual company reports reveals a mixed picture during this earnings season. To provide further insight into this complex earnings landscape, our Head of Equity Strategy, Mathieu Racheter, joins our show today.00:00 Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing00:38 Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing07:38 Q1 earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy11:58 Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The markets have seen some brief respite from volatility, thanks to positive developments in ongoing trade talks and upbeat company reports. However, this week promises to be action-packed, with four of the tech giants - Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon - set to release their earnings reports, which will likely dictate market direction. Joining us on the show is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research, who shares his expert insights on the recent surge in digital assets and offers his take on whether this rally has legs.00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing00:31 Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing07:13 Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research12:01 Closing remarks:  Helen Freer, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Equity markets continued their multi-day rally yesterday on US Federal Reserve comments indicating an openness to rate cuts and signs that trade negotiations were progressing. China may exempt some US goods from tariffs and Apple plans to shift the assembly of all US-sold iPhones to India as soon as next year. In this episode, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX and Precious Metals Solutions in Geneva, who shares his expertise on the latest developments in foreign exchange and metals markets.00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing00:24 Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing05:48 FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva09:59 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Market sentiment has shifted towards optimism once again, with the US dollar gaining strength as concerns over President Trump's potential interference with the Federal Reserve's independence have eased. A two-day stock market rally has been fuelled by hopes that the US-China trade tensions will not intensify further. Meanwhile, recent data suggests that the economy may be heading towards a stagflationary environment in the coming months. Joining us to share his insights on the volatile gold market is Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research.00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing00:24 Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing06:20 Gold: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research10:02 Closing remarks:  Helen Freer, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Stocks jumped and the dollar edged up as the Trump administration defused some of the tension that had rattled financial markets in recent sessions. President Donald Trump said yesterday that he does not intend to fire Fed Chair Jay Powell, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told investors that the US-China trade dispute is unsustainable and that a deal will be made. This came as the International Monetary Fund slashed their global growth forecasts, with widespread downgrades after the US tariff announcements. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, shares his views on what to expect from the ECB and the Fed in terms of monetary policy in this environment and what it means for the economy.00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing00:34 Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing06:38 Comments on ECB, US recession risks, Fed: David Kohl, Chief Economist12:38 Closing remarks:  Helen Freer, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Market uncertainty has taken hold, with the US dollar hitting 15-month lows, stocks plummeting – including the Nasdaq, which has entered bear market territory – and credit spreads spiking. In contrast, Asian markets remain relatively resilient, while gold and digital assets rally. To make sense of these trends, we're joined by two expert guests: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research. Together, we delve into the latest news across financial markets and explore what's driving investor sentiment.00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing00:31 Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing05:55 Earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy09:57 Bitcoin and gold: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research13:32 Closing remarks:  Helen Freer, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Technology stocks were weak, with Nvidia shares down 7% following the imposition of export restrictions to China and other countries. In a speech in Chicago, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell discussed the potential dilemma of balancing inflation control with economic growth and indicated a cautious monetary approach. The European Central Bank is expected to cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points today. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, talks about all things commodities, from the fading US dominance in energy markets to gold reaching new all-time highs. Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, talks about the investment implications of the increased likelihood of a US recession.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:28 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)06:03 Commodities update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)11:17 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)15:39,5 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

The ongoing tariff saga remains the dominant theme, with investors waiting to see if tensions will ease or escalate. This uncertainty is taking a toll on consumer sentiment and investor expectations. Following recent volatility, markets were relatively calm yesterday, with European bourses ending the day in positive territory, while US stocks closed marginally in the red. However, in after-hours trading, Nvidia's shares plummeted by over 6% after the company faced new restrictions on its exports to China. Both the US dollar and US Treasury yields stabilised somewhat. In overnight trading in Asia, most markets fell, despite China releasing robust economic data. One notable exception was gold, which continued its upward trajectory. To provide further insights into the equity markets, particularly banking stocks, we are joined today by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy.00:00 Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing00:24 Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing07:39 Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy11:52 Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets are showing signs of stabilisation as the US administration appears to be reconsidering its tariff policy. This has boosted auto stocks in particular, driven by reports that President Trump may modify the tariff package for auto-related imports from Mexico and Canada. Additionally, US Treasury yields have decreased following their sharpest increase in twenty years last week. Joining us to discuss the latest on digital assets is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research.00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing01:05 Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing07:29 Digital assets: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research12:52 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Global financial markets experienced a tumultuous week, with safe-haven assets surging, and the US dollar and Treasury bonds posting sharp declines, raising concerns about the future of US economic dominance and global trade stability. As the escalating trade war with China continues to unfold, investors are bracing for another volatile week, in which the European Central Bank meeting takes place and the corporate earnings season gets underway. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, also joins the show and shares his outlook for markets from a technical perspective.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:31 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)06:45 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)09:55 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

European markets played catch-up with Wednesday's US rally yesterday, with nearly all sectors posting significant gains. However, when US markets opened, risk appetite appeared to evaporate on Wall Street, as stocks fell despite subdued inflation data. There was some brief respite for Treasuries but they then resumed their sell-off from earlier in the week, sparking concerns among many about the health of the financial system. Asian markets delivered mixed performance overnight, but gold reached yet another record high. In this episode, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX and Precious Metals Solutions in Geneva, who shares his expertise on the latest developments in foreign exchange and metals, offering valuable insights into these markets.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:28 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)05:49 FX and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)10:25 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Following President Trump's ‘pause' announcement yesterday, US And Asian equity indices experienced a relief rally of historic proportions. The punitive tariffs imposed on dozens of countries have now been swapped for a universal 10% rate, but only for 90 days. It remains to be seen whether this rally can be sustained or if it is merely a dead-cat bounce: US futures are pointing to a lower open this afternoon. Gold and oil have not been immune to some puzzling price moves in the past few weeks too, so it was great to have Carsten Menke and Norbert Rücker on the podcast to provide their insights into what might be behind these.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:31 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)05:54 Oil: Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)09:01 Gold: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)12:26 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The global trade war intensifies as the Trump Tariffs come into effect. Equities continue to decline for the fourth consecutive day, threatening to push the S&P 500 into bear market territory, as investors seek safe havens. Meanwhile, Treasuries, once considered the world's ultimate safe haven, remain under pressure as investors appear to be losing confidence in the US. To gain more insight into the bond market's reaction, we spoke with Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who discusses the implications for investors' positioning in more detail.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)05:49 Bond market latest: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)10:44 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Global markets experienced significant volatility yesterday due to ongoing trade tensions sparked by President Donald Trump - the VIX index surged to 60 at one point. The S&P 500 closed just 0.2% lower despite threats of additional tariffs. Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley stated that a decline in stocks alone won't prompt the Fed to intervene, but an impairment to the flow of credit to businesses would. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rebounded slightly today after a historic 13.2% collapse on Monday, while Japan's Nikkei 225 rallied 6% on positive trade news, with the US and Japan potentially negotiating a trade deal. European equity futures are up over 2% in response to the news. Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research, notes that the upcoming earnings season will be all about companies' comments on the trade war.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)05:49 Q1 earnings season preview: Philipp Lienhardt (Head of Equity Research)08:29 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

As the emerging trade war takes its toll, causing global stock markets to sell off from Japan to Mexico, investor sentiment continues to deteriorate rapidly. After US stocks fell steeply on Friday, Asian equities have plummeted today, with tech and banking stocks leading the decline in response to the retaliatory tariffs announced by China. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, shares his outlook for markets from a technical perspective and Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, shares his reaction to the escalating tariff war with a focus on China.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:44 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)06:17 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)09:04 Reaction to tariff announcements in Asia: Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)19:04 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The fallout from Donald Trump's tariff war spread across global markets on Thursday, knocking down stocks and sparking a flight to fixed-income havens. US equities and the dollar saw some of the worst selling on speculation the president's trade offensive will cripple the American economy. In today's special episode, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, shares his insights on the latest developments and how investors should navigate this uncertain environment. And Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, talks about why he sees more room for US dollar weakness and why he thinks gold will continue to perform well.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:41 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)06:10 Reaction to Trump tariff announcements: Christian Gattiker (Head of Research)11:10 FX and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)15:55 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Last night President Trump delivered a 99 minute speech in which he announced a baseline 10% tariff across the board. For many of the 180 countries on that board, the actual number is much higher: China now faces a rate of 54% and it has vowed to take ‘resolute counter-measures' to safeguard its own rights and interests. Markets reacted badly to the news with only gold and US Treasury prices moving higher. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, joins the podcast to share his thoughts on the impact on economic growth and why the biggest inflationary impact might actually be felt in the US. And Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, brings a timely update on AI.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:44 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)06:33 Liberation Day: David Kohl (Chief Economist)11:20 AI update: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)15:08 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.