Moving Markets: Daily News

With tariffs on Switzerland still in focus, a small Swiss delegation travels to Washington to negotiate a resolution. Meanwhile, emerging tariff threats for semiconductors and pharmaceuticals are weighing on market sentiment. Beyond trade developments, investors must digest a slew of macroeconomic figures and reports from the ongoing earnings season. The US Federal Reserve is also in the spotlight, especially after President Trump announced his intention to nominate a new Fed Chair by the end of the week. To provide clarity amidst the market turmoil, we welcome Dario Messi, our Head of Fixed Income Research, and Mathieu Racheter, our Head of Equity Strategy, to the show today.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing (07:21) - Is Fed independence really at risk? Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (13:24) - Swiss equities and Q2 earnings in focus: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (19:34) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

European and US stocks staged a recovery rally yesterday, although the Swiss market trailed behind following the recent 39% tariff shock. Meanwhile, yields have fallen sharply across Europe due to robust real money demand. In the US, yields have also dipped slightly, as markets now largely anticipate a 25 basis-point rate cut in September. With a comprehensive update on the current state of the Swiss property market, we are joined by Markus Waeber, Head of Indirect Real Estate Advisory and Intelligence.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing (05:24) - Real estate update: Markus Waeber, Head of Indirect Real Estate Advisory & Intelligence (11:22) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

President Trump's team delivered more tariff surprises ahead of the weekend with conditions worsening for both Canada and Switzerland. Then the jobs data delivered some ugly news for the US economy, with severe downward revisions to May and June's data which saw the bearer of the tidings - the commissioner of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics – lose her job. Added to this, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler announced her early departure from office, leaving the President with two new job announcements to make. It's therefore no surprise that equity markets fell, and US treasuries rallied, as markets more than doubled their previous day's bet on a September rate cut to 87.5%. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins the podcast today to provide insights into how the tariff news might impact Swiss investors as he discusses rates, the Swiss franc and Swiss equities.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (06:58) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (10:50) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has tempered expectations that the central bank may cut interest rates at its September meeting, leading to a modest decline in stock prices. However, after the close of trading, both Microsoft and Meta reported strong earnings for Q2, with their shares rising substantially, which could set the stage for a positive trading day ahead. Meanwhile, Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking Sales in Geneva, offers his insights on the current strength of the US dollar and identifies potential opportunities as we head into August.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing (07:26) - FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (11:27) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

European equities rebounded yesterday, driven by largely positive earnings, as the IMF upgraded its global growth forecast for this year and next, citing reduced US trade war impact and a weaker US dollar. Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk makes headlines with a 30% share dive on revised sales and profit guidance, and US equities lose steam ahead of today's Fed meeting. For more on the earnings season so far and ahead of the four mega-cap tech stocks that are scheduled for this week, we have Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, on the show.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing (05:55) - Q2 Earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (11:32) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The long-awaited trade deal between the EU and the US only provided a temporary boost to the markets, with concerns swiftly being voiced in Europe. Many described the agreement as one-sided, favouring US interests. Following the announcement, the US dollar strengthened while the price of gold plummeted to a three-week low. Meanwhile, oil prices rose, driven by the trade deal and President Trump's renewed pressure on Russia. Attention now turns to US monetary policy, with the Federal Open Market Committee commencing its two-day meeting today. Joining us on the show to discuss the implications of last week's European Central Bank decision and provide insight into this week's rate decision in the US is our Chief Economist, David Kohl.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing (06:12) - Central Banks and Trade Deals: David Kohl, Chief Economist (12:26) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The European Union and the United States have reached a significant trade agreement, substantially reducing the likelihood of an all-out trade war. While some details remain unclear, the markets have responded favourably to the announcement. In a related development, Chinese and US officials are set to convene in Stockholm today to discuss easing trade tensions. Markets have a lot to digest this week with the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the latest US jobs data due. Also, it is a busy week for company earnings reports, with four of the Mag7 companies reporting, among other. As always on Mondays, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins us to share his views on markets from a technical analysis perspective.(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing (05:35) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:35) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Earnings remain in the spotlight, with notable gains in the banking sector, while Tesla tumbled amid US policy headwinds. The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged and offered a modestly upbeat assessment of the eurozone economy, raising doubts among investors about further policy easing, even while US tariff threats still cloud the outlook. This pushed yields higher and weighed on gold. Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking in Geneva, explains why the precious metal has consolidated since Liberation Day, and why he agrees with the consensus view of higher prices for metals.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing (05:54) - FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (10:33) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Global equity markets rally on US-Japan trade deal progress, sparking hopes for EU agreements, with equities surging and gold easing. Japan's Nikkei 225 reaches a new all-time high, as does the S&P 500. In earnings: Alphabet surprises positively, while Tesla disappoints. Companies reporting today include industry giants like Nestle, Roche, Deutsche Bank, and LVMH. The ECB is not expected to cut rates today, with the market's focus on its outlook. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses China's historic new hydropower project – which is six times bigger than the Three Gorges Dam – and explores its potential impact on iron ore and steel prices.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing (05:58) - Iron ore and steel: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (09:51) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The current earnings season is proving particularly intriguing, with some companies surpassing analyst expectations and others struggling, particularly due to the impact of US tariffs. On the subject of tariffs, the recently announced US-Japan trade deal has boosted market confidence and fuelled optimism that others, such as the European Union, may also be able to secure similar deals. Meanwhile, attention is slowly but surely shifting towards interest rate decisions, with the ECB set to announce its decision tomorrow and the US Federal Reserve scheduled to follow next week. Joining us on the show today is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research, who provides an update and outlook on the crypto space.(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing (00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing (07:10) - Digital assets: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (10:37) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The US stock market reached new heights, driven by the strong performance of several of the top tech giants, but the broader market failed to follow suit. Meanwhile, government bond yields declined across the board as the deadline for President Trump's trade negotiations, set for 1 August, draws closer. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, offers his insights on the Japanese market in the aftermath of the recent election upheaval and provides a comprehensive overview of the earnings season thus far.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing (07:04) - Implications of Japan elections and earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (11:27) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Japan's Upper House election has sparked market uncertainty after the ruling LDP coalition lost control. Nevertheless, the JPY remained surprisingly stable. The S&P 500 and MSCI World indices reached new heights last week, bolstered by robust economic data and impressive corporate earnings. The US Congress passes legislation regulating stablecoins, thereby giving credibility to the digital asset industry. According to Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, the CHF is likely to maintain its strength, and small- and mid-cap stocks are currently preferred over large-cap equivalents in the Swiss equities market.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing (06:09) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:17) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Global stock markets experienced a positive day yesterday, bolstered by impressive earnings reports – including those from ABB – and favourable macroeconomic data from the US. The latter indicated a resilient retail sector, underpinned by a strong US consumer. As a result, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both closed at record highs. In Asia, however, the outlook is more mixed, with attention centred on Japan ahead of its upper house elections this weekend. On the commodities front, oil prices remain steady, whereas gold has edged down slightly this morning. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and the US dollar have both appreciated. We are joined today by Bence Boldvai from FX/PM Solutions, who discusses the latest developments in currencies and metals.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing (07:26) - FX and metals: Bence Boldvai, FX/PM Solutions (11:07) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The US President's comments regarding potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell sparked market volatility. The initial reaction was swift, with the dollar and stocks tumbling, but the market later showed resilience with the S&P 500 rising. Strong US bank earnings and mixed inflation signals added to the complex picture. Global trade tensions weighed on European stocks, with shares of ASML and Renault plunging, while in Asia, TSMC came out with strong results. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides some impressive numbers behind Bitcoin's march to a new all-time high.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing (06:39) - Digital assets: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (10:40) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Stocks retreated in response to US inflation data, which met expectations but showed that tariffs have arrived in inflation figures. The earnings season has started with mixed bank earnings dragging down broader equity markets, while the tech heavy Nasdaq reached a record high on gains by chip giant Nvidia. This followed the US decision to ease restrictions on selling AI chips to China. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, shares his insights on what to expect from the earnings season and why he sees more upside potential for the defence sector. And Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains why Japanese bond yields increased so strongly and Japan's election this weekend remains a risk event.(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing (00:52) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing (06:14) - Fixed income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (11:52) - Earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (16:21) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Stock markets continue to show resilience in the face of the latest US tariff threats and potential countermeasures from trading partners such as the EU. Other significant news yesterday included French President Emmanuel Macron announcing plans to substantially increase defence spending, while the US shifted its stance towards Russia, threatening to introduce secondary sanctions. Overnight in Asia, investors digested a slew of Chinese macroeconomic data and the latest increase in Japanese government bond yields. Today, the focus shifts to US banks as they kick off the earnings season. Also joining the show today is Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, with an update on gold and silver.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing (07:16) - Gold and silver update: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (10:46) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets take note of the escalating trade tensions, yet their response appears surprisingly subdued. The US dollar has edged upwards, just like global long-term yields, and stock prices have dipped slightly. Investors seem to be adopting a cautious stance, awaiting the ongoing developments and hoping that some political flexibility can be maintained until 1 August. In addition, Richard Tang, Head of Research in Hong Kong, discusses the specific drivers of China's onshore and offshore markets, as well as the potential significance of Japan's upcoming upper-house elections for the country's government.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing (06:29) - Asia update: Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong (16:07) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US equities reach another record high as investors downplay tariff concerns, buoyed by a positive forecast from Delta Airlines. Bitcoin soars to a new all-time high, exceeding USD 118,000. European shares see modest gains, with the Swiss market leading the way due to advancements in healthcare, and the UK market rising on the back of strong commodity performance following the announcement of the US copper tariffs. The original Hermès Birkin handbag is sold for EUR 8.58 million. According to Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX & PM Solutions, the US dollar's downward trend remains in place, although he notes that July and August are typically not periods of strong trends.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing (06:15) - FX and metals: Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX/PM Solutions (08:57) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

President Trump delivers more tariff letters and lays down the gauntlet to Brazil – announcing a 50% tariff on their exports into the US. Copper also faces a 50% import tariff. US markets rally on artificial intelligence enthusiasm as Nvidia buoys tech stocks, becoming the first company ever to reach a valuation of USD 4 trillion. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, provides his thoughts on the latest tariff developments and what they might mean for the US economy and the dollar going forwards, and sticking with the tariff theme, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, delves into the copper news and the multiple factors at play when it comes to pricing.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (05:54) - Tariff developments by David Kohl, Chief Economist (13:49) - Copper: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (18:07) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Stock markets remain quiet, shrugging off President Trump's assertive rhetoric on additional tariffs and his stance that no exemptions will be made ahead of the 1st August deadline for reciprocal tariffs. Nevertheless, government bond yields are rising across major markets due to potential inflationary pressures triggered by the tariffs and a broader re-evaluation of risk appetite. To provide insight into these developments, Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses why he remains relatively unfazed by the increase in yields, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, shares his outlook for the upcoming Q2 earnings reporting season.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing (06:01) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (10:49) - Q2 Earnings season preview: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (14:53) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The US sent a flurry of ‘trade letters' to numerous countries yesterday, stating that it will impose steep tariffs from 1 August 2025 unless these countries take steps to open their markets to American products. Meanwhile, US President Trump signed an executive order, delaying the deadline for reciprocal tariffs from this Wednesday to 1 August. The stock market reacted swiftly, with US indices closing lower yesterday, but market sentiment appears to have improved slightly overnight as investors focused on the fact that Trump has left the door open for further trade discussions. With a quiet economic agenda today, investors are likely to remain focused on the trade saga and await further developments. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, joins our show today to provide an update on the world of crypto.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing (06:38) - Digital assets: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (10:09) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Investors are seeking protection in more defensive areas of the market as US President Donald Trump ratchets up trade tensions. European and US equity futures plunge alongside Asian shares amidst fresh tariff uncertainty ahead of the Wednesday tariff deadline. However, 1 August appears to be the new deadline, allowing certain countries more time for negotiations. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, talks about the optical illusion of recent all-time highs in US equities and the need to hedge US dollar assets, particularly for Swiss franc investors.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing (05:46) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (08:06) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

A solid US jobs report sends global stocks higher and US equities to all-time highs. But the devil lies in the detail. A US Federal Reserve rate cut in July is now off the table, pushing US Treasury yields higher and gold lower. What comes next? Investors are already looking to next week when Wednesday's tariff deadline looms. Trump has intensified trade tensions even ahead of the deadline, saying the administration would start sending out letters to countries from today. Joining us is Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking in Geneva, who shares his views on the weakening US dollar, the moves in the British pound this week, and why gold remains a buy-on-dip.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:51) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing (06:06) - FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (09:40) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The S&P 500 reached a new high, fuelled by technology stocks. Despite weak US private jobs data, optimism prevailed thanks to a Vietnam trade deal and significant bank dividend increases. However, UK politics sparked fresh concerns, causing the pound and UK domestic equities to decline. Meanwhile, copper prices are surging due to tariff-induced stockpiling in the US – Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, provides his take.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing (06:12) - Copper: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (10:27) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

While European stocks had a subdued start yesterday, broader US indices managed to kick off the second half of 2025 firmly in the green, shrugging off concerns on the looming tariff ‘decision day' on 9 July. However, big tech mega caps dragged down the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Talk of the day was the Senate's passing of the ‘Big, beautiful (tax) bill' as President Trump calls it, and a flurry of manufacturing activity reports from around the globe, which showed that this part of the economy keeps on facing challenges. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains why he believes that the US Treasury yield curve is likely to steepen going forward.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing (06:27) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (12:55) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

With geopolitics now taking a back seat again, investor attention is moving to US tariffs. Markets are focused on whether the EU and the US can conclude a trade deal in time for the 9 July deadline, while Canadian PM Carney yesterday said that US-Canada trade talks are set to resume after Canada withdrew its digital services tax on US tech companies. US equity markets rose yesterday, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 reaching new all-time highs. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides an update on the crypto market and shares his outlook on digital assets for the second half of the year.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Jonti Warris, Investment Writing (06:28) - Digital assets: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (11:49) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Global equity markets closed the week on a strong note, fuelled by a series of positive developments. Trade progress, delayed trade deadlines, an important change to Trump's ‘One big, beautiful bill', and NATO's new defence spending target all contributed to the upward momentum, propelling the S&P 500 to a new all-time high. Meanwhile, gold is on track for its first monthly decline this year. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why new all-time highs for US equities are a bullish signal and why he expects the US dollar to continue to weaken.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:26) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing (04:58) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (07:21) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

As the US dollar hits a three-and-a-half year low against its major counterparts, global stock markets continue to attract buyers, particularly in Japan, Germany, and the US. With major US equity indices poised to break their previous records set in February, a sense of (rare) geopolitical calm appears to be taking hold, leading to a consolidation in gold prices. Joining us to share his expertise is Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking Sales in Geneva, who shares his views on the weakening US dollar and the surge in palladium prices.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:21) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing (06:04) - FX and metals markets: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (10:03) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Nvidia hits new all-time high and NATO members pledge to boost defence spending to 5% of GDP. The EUR/USD currency pair briefly surpasses 1.17 on a report that US president Trump wants to nominate a new Fed chair as early as September. The US Federal Housing Finance Agency is exploring ways to let Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac consider crypto holdings in mortgage approvals. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, notes gold is undergoing a short-term mood-driven consolidation. Nicolas Jordan, CIO Investment Analysis, identifies the gold uptrend and USD downtrend as the most pronounced price patterns in the first half of 2025.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing (05:59) - Gold update: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (10:05) - Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan, CIO Investment Analysis (14:09) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to be holding, and equity markets worldwide have been buoyed by positive sentiment. This shift in sentiment has also been evident in commodity markets, where oil prices fell back to pre-escalation levels and gold prices declined accordingly. Meanwhile, in the US, attention is focused on Jerome Powell's testimony before the House Committee, where investors are hoping to gain insight into the Federal Reserve's future interest rate policy. To discuss the latest developments in fixed income and monetary policy, we are joined this morning by Dario Messi, our Head of Fixed Income Research.(00:00) - Introduction: Jonti Warris, Investment Writing (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing (06:25) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (11:49) - Closing remarks: Jonti Warris, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Oil prices have continued to fall after Trump's announcement of a ceasefire in the Israel-Iran conflict, as the immediate threat to the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane appears to have fallen. Asia-Pacific markets are rallying sharply on the news, while European and US stock futures are also strongly higher. Also on today's podcast, we are joined by Markus Waeber, Head of Indirect Real Estate Advisory & Intelligence, who provides an update on the Swiss real estate market now that interest rates in Switzerland have fallen to zero.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Jonti Warris, Investment Writing (07:20) - Swiss real estate market update: Markus Waeber, Head of Indirect Real Estate Advisory & Intelligence (12:36) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets are responding calmly this morning following the US airstrikes on Iran at the weekend, with oil prices initially spiking before retreating to previous levels. Global stocks are trading mixed as investors await potential Iranian reprisals and key economic indicators, including flash Purchasing Managers' Indices and US Personal Consumption Expenditure data later in the week. Key events this week include a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde today, the NATO summit, and testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell before Congress on Tuesday. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, observes that US equity markets are climbing the wall of worry amid the uncertainty in the Middle East, and he notes that the EUR is at a 10-year high against the JPY.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing (05:25) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:02) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

While US markets were closed yesterday for the Juneteenth holiday, the rest of the world did not escapemarket volatility. Global stocks fell as uncertainty surrounding the Israel-Iran conflict and potential US involvement continued. Meanwhile, central banks made their interest rate announcements: the Swiss National Bank cut its benchmark rate to 0%, whereas the Bank of England kept rates unchanged at 4.25%. This morning, oil prices have reversed slightly, trading lower; while gold is also down, putting it on track for a weekly loss. Joining us to discuss the latest developments in the US dollar, the Swiss franc, and precious metals is Tim Gagie, our Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva.(00:00) - Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) (00:31) - Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing) (06:26) - FX and metals markets by Tim Gagie (Head of FX/PM PB Geneva) (10:36) - Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets await clarity on US involvement in the Middle East conflict. The US Federal Reserve holds rates steady, citing inflation and tariff uncertainty. US bank stocks rise on deregulation hopes, while crypto stocks surge after stablecoin legislation passes. The Swiss National Bank will be the first major central bank to lower interest rates to 0% today. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, provides our latest views on the oil market amid the war in the Middle East. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, talks about two interesting markets amid all the uncertainty: Swiss mid-caps and Indian stocks.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing (05:17) - Oil: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (09:30) - Equity markets: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy (13:32) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Donald Trump says he wants a “real end” to the nuclear dispute with Iran, rather than just a ceasefire in the conflict with Israel, and demands “unconditional surrender”. The escalating tensions and another set of weak US macro data triggered a risk-off sentiment, weighing on equities and boosting oil prices. As the Federal Reserve prepares to announce its interest rate decision later today, investors remain cautious amidst heightened volatility in the energy market and growing concerns about a broader crisis in the Middle East. To provide insight into the implications of these events on bond markets, we have Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, on the show who shares his expectations for the US central bank's actions in the coming months.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing (05:39) - Bond markets: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (10:46) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US and European equity markets rallied on Monday, closing their sessions in positive territory. However, after President Trump called for the immediate evacuation of Tehran and decided to abandon the G7 summit to return to Washington, futures turned south. With the exception of Japan, most Asian equity markets turned in a nervous performance overnight as markets wait to see what direction the Israel/Iran situation takes next. US data and tomorrow's FOMC decision will also be closely monitored. On todays' show, Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides an update on digital assets where demand is strong and he sees a healthy derivatives market.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:48) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (06:54) - Digital assets: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (11:01) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

As geopolitical tensions escalate, with Iran and Israel continuing to trade retaliatory blows, direct US involvement has so far been avoided. The sell-off in equities remains relatively contained, while the safe havens of gold, oil and the Swiss franc see inflows. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, offers his thoughts from a technical perspective on the US dollar weakness and the recent rebound in oil.(00:00) - Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) (00:28) - Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) (07:25) - Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis) (09:46) - Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Oil prices are surging up to 10%, while equity futures are declining. Safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasuries are gaining traction. Overall, the initial market reaction to the escalation of hostilities in the Middle East is relatively contained, except for oil, as the situation remains fluid and uncertain. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks about what to expect from the US, UK, Japanese, and Swiss central banks next week. Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking Geneva, discusses the Middle East crisis and its potential short-term impact on the US dollar, which is close to a multi-year low, and gold, which is approaching its all-time high. He also comments on platinum amid a supply/demand imbalance.(00:00) - Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) (01:01) - Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) (05:43) - Bond market update by Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research) (10:19) - FX and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX/PM PB Geneva) (14:13) - Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Although the US trade deal with China is ‘done', according to President Trump, the worst is not yet over for other countries. They can expect to receive a letter from Trump outlining his terms for trade in the coming weeks. Renewed trade tensions and escalating conflicts in the Middle East are dampening investor sentiment. Yesterday, stock markets saw a broad decline, while oil and gold prices rose. Also on the show today is our Group Chief Investment Officer, Yves Bonzon, who offers valuable insights into the current market landscape. Additionally, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, provides an update on the evolving dynamics in the commodities market.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing (07:18) - Market update (macro update, USD, gold): Yves Bonzon, Group CIO (16:01) - Commodities update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (22:25) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US-China trade talks continue to progress positively and may conclude soon, but have still yet to reach an agreement. Optimism among investors has led to stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region rallying today, with tech stocks in particular leading the charge. Also on today's podcast, we are joined by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who provides us with an update on equity markets and offers his outlook for how investors should position themselves for the rest of the year.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:55) - Markets wrap-up: Jonti Warris, Investment Writing (06:32) - Equity markets update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy (10:34) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US representatives including US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with China's vice premier and lead trade negotiator He Lifeng in London yesterday. Both sides have temporarily slashed tariffs to allow the talks to progress following President Trump's phone conversation with the Chinese President Xi Jinping last Thursday. As the talks enter day two, US and Asian stock markets are cautiously optimistic. Indeed, the MSCI China Index has now rallied sufficiently to enter a bull market. Meanwhile, the markets will also be watching US inflation data tomorrow for indications regarding the next move by the Fed at their meeting next week. With Bitcoin rallying to less than 2% shy of the record high, Manual Villegas from Next Generation Research joins the podcast with all the latest news on stablecoins and the opportunities and challenges facing those who invest in them.(00:00) - Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) (00:28) - Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) (06:16) - Digital assets – stablecoins by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research) (11:46) - Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US equities closed lower after choppy trading on Thursday, although they ended off worst levels. This followed three straight daily gains for the S&P 500, and major indices remain on track for modest weekly gains. Yesterday, big tech was mixed but Tesla notably lagged as Musk and Trump's public war of words escalated. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank cut rates as expected, but surprised markets with a more hawkish tone, casting doubt on the likelihood of another rate cut in July. Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking in Geneva, discusses what this means for the euro and how to position for today's US payrolls.(00:00) - Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) (00:25) - Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing) (05:34) - FX and metals markets by Tim Gagie (Head of FX/PM PB Geneva) (10:02) - Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The MSCI All-Country World Index is back at a new all-time high. The German government announcement of a EUR 46 billion tax relief package boosted European investor confidence, propelling the German DAX to a new high. US private-sector labour market data revealed weak job growth, triggering a sharp decline in US Treasury yields. In Asian markets, China's services sector showed signs of growth, while Japan's economy was affected by declining inflation-adjusted earnings for the fourth consecutive month. Today, attention turns to the European Central Bank. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, talks about the tectonic shifts in the oil and gas markets and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Office, discusses what the US equity market recovery and the USD weakness mean for investors.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:30) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing (05:39) - Oil update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (10:14) - Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis (14:28) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The S&P500 index now is at the brink of entering technical bull market territory, up nearly 20% since its lows after ‘Liberation Day'. Yesterday, equity markets rose, fuelled by a surprise fall of inflation in Europe, good labour market data in the US, a perceived easing of trade tensions and some AI chips-excitement following Meta's energy deal. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, joins us to share his views on where yields go and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, speaks about the point at which yield levels start to trouble equity markets.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing (06:34) - Bond Market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (11:18) - Equity strategy update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy (15:33) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

With Trump imposing new import tariffs on steel and aluminium, prices of the two metals on the US physical market have soared, lifting shares of domestic steelmakers. However, there is still a glimmer of hope on the trade front, with reports emerging that Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are set to hold talks ‘very soon'. Meanwhile, stock markets around the world have seen some volatility as investors digest the latest manufacturing activity data. Treasury yields, which have been in the spotlight recently, remained stable overnight after strong demand was seen at a 10-year Japanese government bond auction. Joining us on the show today is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research, who gives us an update on digital assets.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing (07:30) - Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (11:34) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US action was somewhat muted on Friday, although indices closed the month of May comfortably higher. President Trump announced that he was doubling import tariffs on steel and aluminium. He also accused China of breaking the Geneva agreement. China has responded today to say that they have not. Markets in Asia are mostly lower this morning on the back of this, and US futures point to a lower open today. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins the show to discuss the relevance, or not, of that age-old adage: ‘Sell in May and go away'.(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (05:36) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:52) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The US economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025, fueling ongoing recession concerns amidst escalating trade tensions and mixed economic indicators. Technology giant NVIDIA posted strong quarterly results, providing a much-needed boost to market sentiment. US courts are deliberating on the authority to impose tariffs, with the decision pending between President Trump and the Senate. President Trump held his first meeting with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell since taking office, marking a significant encounter. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the US-China trade negotiations as "a bit stalled," which is exerting downward pressure on Asian markets today. Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Sales in Geneva, notes that the US dollar remained range-bound throughout the week and provides his thoughts on the tariff news.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:27,5 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)06:04 FX and metals markets by Tim Gagie (Head of FX/PM PB Geneva)10:04 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

US stock markets played catch-up yesterday after a long holiday weekend. A boost in consumer confidence in both the US and Germany also contributed to the upbeat market mood, as did reports that the US is nearing the signing of new trade deals, potentially as early as this week. In the Asia-Pacific region overnight, equity markets delivered a mixed performance, with South Korea posting the strongest gains, driven largely by a surge in semiconductor stocks as investors positioned themselves ahead of Nvidia's earnings report later today. Meanwhile, shifts in longer-dated government bond yields remain the dominant theme in fixed income. To shed more light on the latest developments, we are joined today by Dario Messi, our Head of Fixed Income Research.00:00 Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing01:01 Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing07:31 Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research12:06 Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Trade tensions took centre stage again, as President Donald Trump delayed the imposition of 50% tariffs on the EU until early July. The move sparked a relief rally in European markets, while the US dollar fell to its lowest level since 2022. Trading volumes remained subdued due to holidays in the US and UK markets. Meanwhile, Japan's long-term yields declined as the Ministry of Finance is apparently considering reducing bond issuance, which would be a potential boost for stocks and the yen. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, joins us to discuss his insights on the potential investment case for digital assets and he also provides an update on AI.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing (06:33) - Digital assets and AI update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (13:24) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US President Donald Trump says he has agreed to postpone the imposition of 50% tariffs on European Union imports until 9 July as the EU continues to negotiate a trade deal with Washington. European equity futures are higher on the news. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, offers his thoughts from a technical perspective on the current US dollar weakness and the steepening Treasury yield curve.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)07:13 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)10:53 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Yesterday's trading session saw significant volatility in Treasury yields after the US House of Representatives approved President Trump's major tax reform bill. This occurred amidst mixed macroeconomic data from the US. European stocks closed lower, while key US indices finished the day mixed around the zero line. Meanwhile, in Asia, one of the top stories overnight was the first phone call between the US and China since their meeting in Geneva. Asian markets were broadly higher. Bitcoin reached new record highs due to a combination of factors. To discuss the latest developments in the US dollar, platinum, and other foreign exchange and precious metals news, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking in Geneva.00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing00:28 Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing07:43 FX/Metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva11:12 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.