Podcasts about global outlook

Our analysts Serena Tang and Seth Carpenter discuss Morgan Stanley's out-of-consensus view on U.S. exceptionalism, and how investors should position their portfolios given the current market uncertainty.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Serena: And I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Seth: Today, we're going to pick up the conversation where we left it off, talking about our mid-year outlook; but this time I get to ask Serena the questions.It's Thursday, May 22nd at 10am in New York.Serena, we're back for part two of this podcast. Let's jump in where we left off. We've seen a lot of policy surprise in the last six months. We've had a big sell off in the beginning of April, in part inspired by all of this uncertainty.What are you telling clients? What do you think investors should be doing? How should they be positioning their portfolios in the current circumstances?Serena: So, we are recommending going overweight in U.S. equities and going overweight in core fixed income like U.S. treasuries and like investment grade corporate credit. And we have a very strong preference for U.S. over rest of the world assets, except the dollar. Now I think for us, the main message is that you have global growth slowing, which is what you talked about yesterday.But you know, risky assets can look past the low growth and do well, while treasuries can look forward to the many Fed cuts you guys are expecting in 2026 and rally. But if I look at valuations that does suggest equities and credit have completely, almost priced out, growth slowdown odds. Meaning that I think there is still some downside and we'd recommend quality across the board.Seth: In your judgment then, looking around the world at all the different asset classes, how well, or perhaps how poorly, are those asset classes priced for the sort of macro views that we were just discussing?Serena: So I think the market that's probably least priced for the slowing economy that you and your team have been forecasting is really in the government bond space. I think the prospect of a lot more Fed cuts than what is currently priced into the market will lower government bond yields, particularly starting in 2026.As you know, our rates team has a target of 3.45 percent for U.S. Treasury 10-year yields, and 2.6 percent for U.S. Treasury two-year yields. Meaning that we also get a steeper curve by this time next year. And this translates to more than 10 percent of total returns for U.S. Treasuries – very attractive; in large part because the markets aren't priced for the Fed scenario that you and your team are forecasting.Seth: Let me, then push a little bit on one of the things that I've been talking to clients about, or at least been asked about, which is the dollar. The role of the dollar? U.S. exceptionalism? Is it real?Serena: Yeah that's a great question because I think this is where we are the most out of consensus. If you've noticed, all of our views right now really line up as us being pretty constructive on U.S. dollar assets. Like at a time when everyone's still really debating the end of U.S. exceptionalism. And we really push back against the idea that foreign investors would or should abandon U.S. assets significantly.There are very few alternatives to U.S. dollar assets right now. I mean, like if you look at investible stock market cap, U.S. is nearly five times the size of the next biggest market, which is Europe. And in the fixed income side of things, more than half of liquid high grade fixed income paper is in U.S. dollars.Now, even if there were significant outflows from U.S. dollar assets, there are very few places that money can find a haven, safe or otherwise. This is not to say there won't ever be any other alternatives to U.S. dollar assets in the future. But that shift in market size takes time, which means that TINA -- there is no alternative -- remains a theme for now.Seth: That view on the dollar weakening from here, it's baked into my team's economic forecast. It's baked into the strategy team's forecast across research. So then let me take it one step forward. What does all this mean about portfolio preferences, your recommendation for clients when when they're investing in assets that are not U.S. dollar denominated.Serena: You are right. I mean, if there's one U.S. asset that we just like, it's the U.S. dollar. So, you know, over the next 12 months we expect key factors, which drove the dollar strength. You know, positive growth, yield differentials relative to other G10 economies. Those factors will fade substantially. And we also think because of the political uncertainty in the U.S. currency hedging ratios on exposure to U.S. assets may increase, which could further pressure the U.S. dollar. So, our FX team sees euro/dollar at 1.25 and dollar/yen at 1.30 by the second quarter of 2026.Which means that we're really recommending non-U.S. dollar investors to buy U.S. stocks and fixed income on an FX hedge basis.Seth: If we look forward but focus just on the next, call it three to six months; what asset classes, or if you want, what regions around the world are best positioned, and what would you say to investors?Serena: So, you're right. I think there is a big difference between what we like over the next three to six months versus what we like over the next 12 months. Because if I look at U.S. equities and U.S. government bonds, both of which we're overweight on most of the gains, probably won't happen until the first half of next year because you have to have U.S. equities really feeling the tailwind of dollar weakness. And you need to have U.S. government bond investors to grow more confident that we will get all of those Fed cuts next year.What we do like over the next three to six months and feel pretty highly convicted on is really U.S. investment grade corporate credit, which we think can, you know, do well in the second half of this year and do well in the first half of next year.Seth: But then let's take a step back [be]cause I think investors around the world are wrestling with a lot of the same issues. They're talking to, you know, strategists like us at lots of different places. What would you say are our most out of consensus views right now?Serena: I think we're pretty out of consensus on our preference for U.S. and U.S. dollar assets. As I mentioned, there was still a huge debate on the end of U.S. exceptionalism. Now the other place where I think it's notable is we're much more bullish on U.S. treasuries than what's being priced into markets and where consensus is. And I think that's really been driven by your economics team being much more convicted on many Fed cuts in 2026.And the last thing I would point out here is, again, we're more bearish than consensus on the dollar. If I look at euro/dollar, if I look at dollar/yen, the kind of appreciation we're forecasting for at around through 10 percent, is higher than I think what most investors are expecting at the moment.Now back to Seth. Given all of the uncertainty around U.S. fiscal, trade, and industrial policy, what indicators are you watching to assess whether global growth is becoming more fragile or more resilient?Seth: Yeah, it's a great question. It's always difficult to monitor in real time how things are going, especially with these sorts of shocks. We are looking at a bunch of the shipping data to see how trade flows are going. There was clearly some front-running into the United States of imports to try to get ahead of tariffs. There's got to be some payback for that. I think the question becomes where do we settle in when it comes to trade?I'm going to be looking in the U.S. at the labor market to see signs of reduced demand for labor. But also try to pay attention to what's going on with the supply of labor from immigration restriction. And then there are all the normal indicators about spending, especially consumer spending. Consumer spending tends to drive a lot of the big developed market economies around the world and how well that holds up or doesn't. That's going to be key to the overall outlook.Serena: Thank you so much, Seth. Thanks for taking the time to talk.Seth: Serena, I could talk to you all day.Serena: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

De mannen introduceren een nieuwe rubriek. Die van voor en achter. Waarmee ze terugkijken op de afgelopen week en vooruit kijken op de aankomende week. In EV-nieuws gaat het over de diverse aankondigingen van fabrikanten over solid state. AI in nieuwe auto's die Google Automotive hebben. De nieuwe Xpeng P7 (meer dan een nieuw model) en Toyota bZ4X Touring en de aankomende Toyota Ubran Cruiser en Mitsubishi Eclipse Cross. Ze sluiten af met het Social Climate Fund (eerlijke verdeling van geld voor EV-verkoop) en the Global Outlook (dit jaar 25% EV nieuwverkoop, per 2030 40%)

Our analysts Seth Carpenter and Serena Tang discuss why they believe the global economy is set to slow meaningfully in the second half of 2025.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Seth: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Serena: Today we'll discuss Morgan Stanley's midyear outlook for the global economy and markets.It's Wednesday, May 21st at 10am in New York.Seth, you published a year ahead outlook last November. Since President Trump took office back in January, there's been pretty significant policy and economic uncertainty and quite a few surprises. With this in mind, what is your current outlook for the global economy for the second half of this year and into 2026.Seth: So, we titled the outlook Skewed to the Downside because we really do think the U.S. economy, the global economy, is set to slow meaningfully from where we were coming into this year. Let's start with the U.S.As you said, policy changes came in a lot this year since the new administration took over. I would say the two key ones from a macro perspective so far have been trade policy and immigration policy.Tariffs have gone up, tariffs have gone down, tariffs have been suspended. Right now, what we think is going to ultimately take place is that we will see persistent, notable tariffs on China, lower tariffs on the rest of the world, and then we'll have to see how things evolve. What does that mean? Well, it means for the U.S. higher inflation and lower growth. In addition, immigration reform means that growth is going to slow because the growth rate of the labor force is going to slow.Now around the rest of the world, the tariff shock matters as well. When the U.S. puts in tariffs on its imports from other countries, that's negative demand for those other countries. So, we're looking for pretty weak growth in the euro area. Now, I will note, lots of people were excited about possible expansionary fiscal policy in Germany, and we think that's still there. We just don't think it's enough to give the euro area robust growth.In Asia, China's a main driver of the economy. China is a big recipient of these tariffs. We think the deflation cycle that we expected in China keeps going on. This reduction in demand from the U.S. is not going to help, but there'll probably be a little bit at the margin offsetting fiscal policy.So, what does that mean put together? Lackluster growth in China. Call it 4 percent slow growth for yet another year. Overall, the global economy should step down. Will it be a recession? That's one of the key questions that we hear from clients, but we don't think so. Not quite. Just a meaningful step downSerena: Interesting. Any particular regions that seem to be bright spots or surprises -- or perhaps have seen the biggest shift in your outlook?Seth: I guess I'd flag two potential bright spots around the world. The first is India. India has been, for us, a favorite. It will have the highest growth rate of any economy that we have in our coverage area. And because it's such a big economy, that's part of why the global economy can't lose that much steam. India has lots going for it. There are cyclical factors boosting growth in the near term. But there are also longer-term structural policy driven reasons to think that Indian growth will stay solid for the foreseeable future.I guess I'd also throw in Japan. Now its growth rate isn't going to be anywhere near the kind of growth in number terms that we're going to see from India. But this has to be taken in the context of 25 years of essentially zero growth of nominal GDP. The reflationary cycle that we think started a couple years ago remains intact, even with the tariff shock. And so, we're pretty optimistic still that Japanese reflation will continue.Serena: And to what extent are U.S. tariffs contributing to global inflationary pressures? I mean, how do you expect the Fed and other central banks to respond?Seth: The tariffs are imposed by the United States on most of the imports coming into the country, whereas other countries, maybe they have some retaliatory tariffs just against the U.S., but definitely not as broad as the U.S. That means for the U.S. tariffs are going to drive up inflation domestically and drive down growth, whereas for the rest of the world, it's mostly just a negative demand shock. So, they will be disinflationary for the rest of the world and pushing down growth.What does that mean for central banks? Well, outside of the U.S., central banks are going to see this as slowing aggregate demand, and so it's pretty clear what it is that they want to do. If they were hiking, they can stop hiking. If they were going to hold steady, they can lower rates a little bit. And if they were already lowering interest rates like the European Central Bank, well they can probably keep going with that without having to worry. And that's why we think the ECB is going to lower its policy rate to probably 1.5 percent and maybe even lower, which is below where the market is expecting things.Now for the Fed, things are much more tricky. The Fed cares about inflation, the Fed cares about U.S. growth, and both of those variables are going in the opposite direction of what they want over the rest of this forecast. Right now, inflation's too high for the Fed, and history shows that inflation goes up first with tariffs before the growth rate hits. So, the Fed's probably going to wait until the hard data show a bigger slowdown in the economy, a worsening. And the labor market. That is a bigger concern for them than the already too high inflation that is set to rise further over the rest of the year.Serena: And in your view, how does trade policy uncertainty influence business investment, particularly in export-oriented industries or in economies tightly linked to U.S. demand?Seth: Yeah. I think it has to be negative and therein lies one of the biggest challenges is just how negative. And I can't say for sure. But what we do know is that an uncertainty tends to be very negative for business investment spending decisions. If you're trying to make a decision, should I build a new factory?This is something that's going to have a long life to it, and you're going to get benefits hopefully for several years. How big are those benefits relative to the cost? Well, right now it's not at all clear, and so there's an option value to waiting.And we think that uncertainty is depressing investment decisions right now. I think it has to affect export-oriented industries. There's a lot of questions about what sort of retaliatory tariffs, other countries might impose.But it also affects domestic driven businesses because, well, they're going to have to see what their demand is. And some of the ones that are just focused on the U.S. economy are selling imported goods. So, it affects businesses across the board. Serena: Right. And how do U.S. tariff hikes spill over into emerging markets, and how might these countries buffer against these shocks?Seth: Yeah, I think there's a range of outcomes and the range is as wide as there are different countries. If you stay close to home. Take Mexico. Mexico is a big trading partner with the U.S. and early on in this whole tariff discussion, they were actually the targets of lots of tariff threats. That could have hurt them directly because there'd be less demand for their exports to the United States.Now we've got some resolution. We have the trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, and most of Mexico's exports to the U.S. are exempt under those conditions. However, the indirect effect is important as well. Mexico is very attached to the U.S. economy, and so as the U.S. economy slows because of these tariffs, the Mexican economy will slow as well.But there's also an indirect effect through currency markets, and I think this is a channel that's more broadly applicable across EM. If the Fed is going to be on hold, like we think holding interest rates higher for longer than the market might currently think, that means that EM central banks who might want to lower their policy rate to support their economy are going to be caught in a bit of a bind.They can't afford to take the risks that their currency will misbehave if they ease too much too far ahead of the Fed. And so, I think there is a little bit of a constraint for EM central banks, thinking about how much can I attend to domestic matters and how much do I have to pay attention to external matters?Serena: Now, I know forecasting economic growth is difficult in even the best of times, and this has been a period of exceptional volatility. How are you and your economic colleagues factoring all of this uncertainty?Seth: It's a great question and luminary minds like Neils Bohr, the Nobel Laureate in physics, and Yogi Berra, everyone's favorite prophet, have both said, ‘Forecasting is hard, especially about the future.' And this time, as you note, is even more so. So, what can we do? We try to come up with as many different scenarios as we can. We ask ourselves not just what's the most likely outcome, because there's uncertainty. The policy changes could come fast and furious. We also try to ask ourselves, if tariffs were to go back up from where they are now, how would that outcome turn out. If tariffs were to go away entirely, how would that turn out?You have to start thinking more and more, I think, in terms of scenarios.Serena:  And does this, in your view, change how much or how little investors should focus on the macro economy?Seth: Well, I think it means that investors have to focus every bit as much on the macro economy as they have in the past. I think it's undeniable that if we're right – and the U.S. economy slows down materially, and the global economy slows down with it – longer-term interest rates are probably going to come down along the lines of what our colleagues in interest rate strategy think. That makes a lot of sense to me. I think the trickier part though is knowing where the macro economy is going.We've got our forecast, but we are ready to make a revision if the facts change. And I think that's the trickier part for investors. The macro economy still matters but having a lot of conviction about where it's going, and as a result, what it means for asset prices? Well, that's the trickier part.Serena, you've been asking me lots of questions and they've been great questions, but I'm going to turn the table. I'm going to start asking questions right back to you.But we probably have to save that for another episode. So, let's pause it there.Serena: That sounds great Seth.Seth: And to the people listening, I want to say thanks for listening. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or a colleague today.

Things are looking up after the US and China de-escalated their trade war, but is the global economy off the hook? In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tells David Wilder why the tariff situation is looking brighter, but also identifies the key flashpoints to watch in the coming weeks. John Higgins, our Chief Markets Economist, is also on the show to talk about the financial markets angle to this turnaround in global sentiment. He sees more upside for US equities, even after the notable gains of recent weeks, and isn't convinced that investors have set themselves up for a fall. Plus, following the launch of our ‘Future of Europe' series, Franziska Palmas discuss how Germany's economic outlook is looking a bit more optimistic, but also why the bloc's biggest economy will continue to struggle – and what that means for boosters of the idea of the EU becoming a third geo-economic pillar alongside the US and China. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Global Trade Stress MonitorCapital Daily: US big tech is back … but not at China's expenseCapital Daily: Back to the future?Capital Economics EventsData: Global Markets ForecastsThe Future of Europe

Host Nigel Grant sits down with Elliot Hentov (Chief Geopolitical Strategist, State Street Global Advisors) to discuss critical trends shaping the global economy and financial markets. From the key policy drivers impacting the US economy in 2025 and China's evolving economic strategy, to Europe's fiscal challenges and the geopolitics of energy, they explore what these dynamics mean for investors. Plus, Elliot shares insights into the future of digital assets and how blockchain technology may influence global investing. This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or an offer for a particular security or securities. The views and opinions expressed by the speaker are those of his or her own as of the date of the recording, and do not necessarily represent the views of State Street or its affiliates. Any such views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and State Street disclaims any responsibility to update such views. These views should not be relied on as investment advice, and because investment decisions are based on numerous factors, may not be relied on as an indication of trading intent on behalf of State Street. Neither State Street nor the speaker can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered. Please consult your tax or financial advisor for additional information concerning your specific situation. This video cannot be used for commercial purposes, and should only be used in the specific countries as restrictions exist with some products and services marketed globally.

On this episode, Hydrocarbon Processing continues its discussion with Bruno Destour, Ethylene Licensing Manager for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Technip Energies. In this episode, MR. Destour dives deep into Technip Energies' ethylene technologies, how traditional ethylene production be revamped or retrofitted to reduce carbon footprint, and a look at several ethylene projects currently in Technip Energies' pipeline.

In this two-part series, Hydrocarbon Processing sits down with Bruno Destour, Ethylene Licensing Manager, Technip Energies, to discuss various aspects of ethylene production. Part 1 dives into Technip Energies' outlook on the global ethylene market, as well as ways that ethylene production can be done more efficiently and sustainably.

En este nuevo episodio de Encuentro de BlackRock México, José Luis Ortega, nuestro Director General de Inversiones Activas de Renta Fija y Multiactivos, habla con Axel Christensen, Director de Estrategia de Inversiones para América Latina en BlackRock, sobre las perspectivas de inversión que analizamos para 2025. Basados en el Global Outlook 2025, publicado por el BlackRock Investment Institute, José Luis y Axel hablan sobre los tres pilares de las perspectivas de BlackRock hacia el resto del año:El financiamiento del futuro de la mano de la IA,Cómo replantear las inversiones en un ambiente de constante cambio, yEl mantenimiento de una postura pro-riesgo.¿Qué hace a este contexto de inversión tan particular y por qué no nos encontramos, de acuerdo al Global Outlook, dentro de un ciclo de negocios tradicional? Descúbrelo en este episodio de Encuentro.

John Batistich is a Non-Executive Director, Board Advisor, Business Leaders and Marketer and a keen observer of the political, economic and technology landscape. So who better to answer the question, what does the coming year hold for us here in Australia and worldwide?  As we left last year, we have the upcoming Presidential inauguration for a second Trump term in the US, an unsteady cease-fire in the troubled Middle East, and a significant shift in power in the region. Inflation continued to be a global challenge, and the world is still figuring out exactly how to transition to a sustainable energy and climate future.  On the technology front, artificial intelligence is having a significant impact on society and how we live. So, what does all this mean for business and marketing? John provides us with an informed business perspective. Listen on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/managing-marketing/id1018735190  Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75mJ4Gt6MWzFWvmd3A64XW?si=a3b63c66ab6e4934  Listen on Stitcher: https://www.stitcher.com/show/managing-marketing  Listen on Podbean: https://managingmarketing.podbean.com/  For more episodes of TrinityP3's Managing Marketing podcast, visit https://www.trinityp3.com/managing-marketing-podcasts/  Recorded live on Zoom and edited, mixed and managed by JML Audio with thanks to Jared Lattouf.

Welcome back to Sustainability Street, our podcast on the intersection of commercial real estate and the world we live in. Happy New Year! On the verge of a new year and a new Federal administration, I interviewed Elizabeth Beardsley, senior policy counsel, for the U.S. Green Building Council, about the state of climate action in the United States and globally. Beardsley had just returned from COP 29, the annual United Nations climate conference, and she generously shared what she heard and saw at the event, where more than 200 countries were represented. The COP is a pretty important meeting. It was at COP 15 in 2016 that the Paris Agreement was formed, and each year the "Conference of the Parties" meets to track progress on limiting global warming and to establish new agreements and targets. According to Beardsley, "the U.S. was there with the message that we've gone way beyond the commitments and promises phase. We're doing this and there's a lot of momentum. So, the intent from all parties is really to keep that momentum up." Here are some of the topics Beardsley and I covered: COP explained (1:32) Moderate optimism and a bigger finance commitment (2:56) At last, rules for carbon credit trading (5:03) Building-specific initiatives (7:10) U.S. sustainability post-Biden (9:52) The regulatory outlook (13:38) AI as solution and stressor (16:50) Beardsley's own near-term outlook (17:50)

The geopolitical landscape of 2025 is poised for profound shifts as structural changes continue to reshape global dynamics. In this episode, Teneo's geopolitical risk experts join host Kevin Kajiwara to explore key trends and risks shaping the year ahead. From the global implications of the impending Trump presidency and how regions like Europe, China, Canada and Mexico are preparing for possible tariff threats to developments in the Middle East, including the collapse of the Assad regime and prospects for peace, this discussion provides essential insights for navigating the challenges and opportunities in 2025 and beyond. Read Teneo's latest insights in "What to Watch in 2025," where our geopolitical risk team delves even further into the key trends, regional flashpoints and critical risks shaping the world.

On the second part of a two-part roundtable, our panel gives its 2025 preview for the housing and mortgage landscape, the US Treasury yield curve and currency markets.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. This is part two of our special roundtable discussion on what's ahead for the global economy and markets in 2025.Today we will cover what is ahead for government bonds, currencies, and housing. I'm joined by Matt Hornbach, our Chief Macro Strategist; James Lord, Global Head of Currency and Emerging Market Strategy; Jay Bacow, our co-head of Securitized Product Strategy; and Jim Egan, the other co-head of Securitized Product Strategy.It's Tuesday, November 19th, at 10am in New York.Matt, I'd like to go to you first. 2024 was a fascinating year for government bond yields globally. We started with a deeply inverted US yield curve at the beginning of the year, and we are ending the year with a much steeper curve – with much of that inversion gone. We have seen both meaningful sell offs and rallies over the course of the year as markets negotiated hard landing, soft landing, and no landing scenarios.With the election behind us and a significant change of policy ahead of us, how do you see the outlook for global government bond yields in 2025?Matt Hornbach: With the US election outcome known, global rate markets can march to the beat of its consequences. Central banks around the world continue to lower policy rates in our economist baseline projection, with much lower policy rates taking hold in their hard landing scenario versus higher rates in their scenarios for re-acceleration.This skew towards more dovish outcomes alongside the baseline for lower policy rates than captured in current market prices ultimately leads to lower government bond yields and steeper yield curves across most of the G10 through next year. Summarizing the regions, we expect treasury yields to move lower over the forecast horizon, helped by 75 [basis points] worth of Fed rate cuts, more than markets currently price.We forecast 10-year Treasury yields reaching 3 and 3.75 per cent by the middle of next year and ending the year just above 3.5 per cent.Our economists are forecasting a pause in the easing cycle in the second half of the year from the Fed. That would leave the Fed funds rate still above the median longer run dot.The rationale for the pause involves Fed uncertainty over the ultimate effects of tariffs and immigration reform on growth and inflation.We also see the treasury curve bull steepening throughout the forecast horizon with most of the steepening in the first half of the year, when most of the fall in yields occur.Finally, on break even inflation rates, we see five- and 10-year break evens tightening slightly by the middle of 2025 as inflation risks cool. However, as the Trump administration starts implementing tariffs, break evens widen in our forecast with the five- and 10-year maturities reaching 2.55 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively by the end of next year.As such, we think real yields will lead the bulk of the decline in nominal yields in our forecasting with the 10-year real yield around 1.45 per cent by the middle of next year; and ending the year at 1.15 per cent.Vishy Tirupattur: That's very helpful, Matt. James, clearly the incoming administration has policy choices, and their sequencing and severity will have major implications for the strength of the dollar that has rallied substantially in the last few months. Against this backdrop, how do you assess 2025 to be? What differences do you expect to see between DM and EM currency markets?James Lord: The incoming administration's proposed policies could have far-reaching impacts on currency markets, some of which are already being reflected in the price of the dollar today. We had argued ahead of the election that a Republican sweep was probably the most bullish dollar outcome, and we are now seeing that being reflected.We do think the dollar rally continues for a little bit longer as markets price in a higher likelihood of tariffs being implemented against trading partners and there being a risk of additional deficit expansion in 2025. However, we don't really see that dollar strength persisting for long throughout 2025.So, I think that is – compared to the current debate, compared to the current market pricing – a negative dollar catalyst that should get priced into markets.And to your question, Vishy, that there will be differences with EM and also within EM as well. Probably the most notable one is the renminbi. We have the renminbi as the weakest currency within all of our forecasts for 2025, really reflecting the impact of tariffs.We expect tariffs against China to be more consequential than against other countries, thus requiring a bigger adjustment on the FX side. We see dollar China, or dollar renminbi ending next year at 7.6. So that represents a very sharp divergence versus dollar yen and the broader DXY moves – and is a consequence of tariffs.And that does imply that the Fed's broad dollar index only has a pretty modest decline next year, despite the bigger move in the DXY. The rest of Asia will likely follow dollar China more closely than dollar yen, in our view, causing AXJ currencies to generally underperform; versus CMEA and Latin America, which on the whole do a bit better.Vishy Tirupattur: Jay, in contrast to corporate credit, mortgage spreads are at or about their long-term average levels. How do you expect 2025 to pan out for mortgages? What are the key drivers of your expectations, and which potential policy changes you are most focused on?Jay Bacow: As you point out, mortgage spreads do look wide to corporate spreads, but there are good reasons for that. We all know that the Fed is reducing their holdings of mortgages, and they're the largest holder of mortgages in the world.We don't expect Fed balance sheet reduction of mortgages to change, even if they do NQT, as is our forecast in the first quarter of 2025. When they NQT, we expect mortgage runoff to continue to go into treasuries. What we do expect to change next year is that bank demand function will shift. We are working under the assumption that the Basel III endgame either stalls under the next administration or gets released in a way that is capital neutral. And that's going to free up excess capital for banks and reduce regulatory uncertainty for them in how they deploy the cash in their portfolios.The one thing that we've been waiting for is this clarity around regulations. When that changes, we think that's going to be a positive, but it's not just banks returning to the market.We think that there's going to be tailwinds from overseas investors that are going to be hedging out their FX risks as the Fed cuts rates, and the Bank of Japan hikes, so we expect more demand from Japanese life insurance companies.A steeper yield curve is going to be good for REIT demand. And these buyers, banks, overseas REITs, they typically buy CUSIPs, and that's going to help not just from a demand side, but it's going to help funding on mortgages improve as well. And all of those things are going to take mortgage spreads tighter, and that's why we are bullish.I also want to mention agency CMBS for a moment. The technical pressure there is even better than in single family mortgages. The supply story is still constrained, but there is no Fed QT in multifamily. And then also the capital that's going to be available for banks from the deregulation will allow them – in combination with the portfolio layer hedging – to add agency CMBS in a way that they haven't really been adding in the last few years. So that could take spreads tighter as well.Now, Vishy, you also mentioned policy changes. We think discussions around GSE reform are likely to become more prevalent under the new administration.And we think that given that improved capitalization, depending on the path of their earnings and any plans to raise capital, we could see an attempt to exit conservatorship during this administration.But we will simply state our view that any plan that results in a meaningful change to the capital treatment – or credit risk – to the investors of conventional mortgages is going to be too destabilizing for the housing finance markets to implement. And so, we don't think that path could go forward.Vishy Tirupattur: Thanks, Jay. Jim, it was a challenging year for the housing market with historically high levels of unaffordability and continued headwinds of limited supply. How do you see 2025 to be for the US housing market? And going beyond housing, what is your outlook for the opportunity set in securitized credit for 2025?James Egan: For the housing market, the 2025 narrative is going to be one about absolute level versus the direction and rate of change. For instance, Vishy, you mentioned affordability. Mortgage rates have increased significantly since the beginning of September, but it's also true that they're down roughly a hundred basis points from the fourth quarter of 2023 and we're forecasting pretty healthy decreases in the 10-year Treasury throughout 2025. So, we expect affordability to improve over the coming year. Supply? It remains near historic lows, but it's been increasing year to date.So similar to the affordability narrative, it's more challenged than it's been in decades; but it's also less challenged than it was a year ago.So, what does all this mean for the housing market as we look through 2025? Despite the improvements in affordability, sales volumes have been pretty stagnant this year. Total volumes – so existing plus new volumes – are actually down about 3 per cent year to date. And look, that isn't unusual. It typically takes about a year for sales volumes to pick up when you see this kind of significant affordability improvement that we've witnessed over the past year, even with the recent backup in mortgage rates.And that means we think we're kind of entering that sweet spot for increased sales now. We've seen purchase applications turn positive year over year. We've seen pending home sales turn positive year over year. That's the first time both of those things have happened since 2021. But when we think about how much sales 2025, we think it's going to be a little bit more curtailed. There are a whole host of reasons for that – but one of them the lock in effect has been a very popular talking point in the housing market this year. If we look at just the difference between the effective mortgage rate on the outstanding universe and where you can take out a mortgage rate today, the universe is still over 200 basis points out of the money.To the upside, you're not going to get 10 per cent growth there, but you're going to get more than 5 per cent growth in new home sales. And what I really want to emphasize here is – yes, mortgage rates have increased recently. We expect them to come down in 2025; but even if they don't, we don't think there's a lot of room for downside to existing home sales from here.There's some level of housing activity that has to happen, regardless of where mortgage rates or affordability are. We think we're there. Turnover measured as the number of transactions – existing transactions – as a share of the outstanding housing market is lower now than it was during the great financial crisis. It's as low as it's been in a little bit over 40 years. We just don't think it can fall that much further from here.But as we go through 2025, we do think it dips negative. We have a negative 2 per cent HPA call next year, not significantly down. We don't think there's a lot of room to the downside given the healthy foundation, the low supply, the strong credit standards in the housing market. But there is a little bit of negativity next year before home prices reaccelerate.This leaves us generically constructive on securitized products across the board. Given how much of the capital structure has flattened this year, we think CLO AAAs actually offer the best value amongst the debt tranches there. We think non-QM triple AAAs and agency MBS is going to tighten. They look cheap to IG corporates. Consumer ABS, we also think still looks pretty cheap to IG corporates. Even in the CMBS pace, we think there's opportunities. CMBS has really outperformed this year as rates have come down. Now our bull bear spread differentials are much wider in CMBS than they are elsewhere, but in our base case, conduit BBB minuses still offer attractive value.That being said, if we're going to go down the capital structure, our favorite expression in the securitized credit space is US CLO equity.Vishy Tirupattur: Thank you, Jay and Jim, and also Matt and James.We'll close it out here. As a reminder, if you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

On the first part of a two-part roundtable, our panel discusses why the US is likely to see a slowdown and where investors can look for growth.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Today in the podcast, we are hosting a special roundtable discussion on what's ahead for the global economy and markets in 2025.I'm joined by my colleagues: Seth Carpenter, Global Chief Economist; Mike Wilson, Chief US Equity Strategist and the firm's Chief Investment Officer; and Andrew Sheets, Global Head of [Corporate] Credit Research.It's Monday, November 18th, at 10am in New York.Gentlemen. Thank you all for taking the time to talk. We have a lot to cover, and so I'm going to go right into it.Seth, I want to start with the global economy. As you look ahead to 2025, how do you see the global economy evolving in terms of growth, inflation and monetary policy?Seth Carpenter: I have to say – it's always difficult to do forecasts. But I think right now the uncertainty is even greater than usual. It's pretty tricky. I think if you do it at a global level, we're not actually looking for all that much of a change, you know, around 3-ish percent growth; but the composition is surely going to change some.So, let's hit the big economies around the world. For the US, we are looking for a bit of a slowdown. Now, some of that was unsustainable growth this year and last year. There's a bit of waning residual impetus from fiscal policy that's going to come off in growth rate terms. Monetary policy is still restrictive, and there's some lag effects there; so even though the Fed is cutting rates, there's still going to be a little bit of a slowdown coming next year from that.But I think the really big question, and you alluded to this in your question, is what about other policy changes here? For fiscal policy, we think that's really an issue for 2026. That's when the Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) tax cuts expire, and so we think there's going to be a fix for that; but that's going to take most of 2025 to address legislatively. And so, the fiscal impetus really is a question for 2026.But immigration, tariffs; those matter a lot. And here the question really is, do things get front loaded? Is it everything all at once right at the beginning? Is it phased in over time a bit like it was over 2018? I think our baseline assumption is that there will be tariffs; there will be an increase in tariffs, especially on China. But they will get phased in over the course of 2025. And so, as a result, the first thing you see is some increase in inflation and it will build over time as the tariffs build. The slowdown from growth, though, gets backloaded to the end of 2025 and then really spills over into to 2026.Now, Europe is still in a situation where they've got some sluggish growth. We think things stabilize. We get, you know, 1 percent growth or so. So not a further deterioration there; but not a huge increase that would make you super excited. The ECB should probably keep cutting interest rates. And we actually think there's a really good chance that inflation in the euro area goes below their target. And so, as a result, what do we see? Well, the ECB cutting down below their best guess of neutral. They think 2 percent nominal is neutral and they go below that.China is another big curveball here for the forecast because they've been in this debt deflation spiral for a while. We don't think the pivot in fiscal policy is anywhere near sufficient to ward things off. And so, we could actually see a further slowing down of growth in China in 2025 as the policy makers do this reactive kind of policy response. And so, it's going to take a while there, and we think there's a downside risk there.On the upside. I mean, we're still bullish on Japan. We're still very bullish on India and its growth; and across other parts of EM, there's some bright spots. So, it's a real mixed bag. I don't think there's a single trend across the globe that's going to drive the overall growth narrative.Vishy Tirupattur: Thank you, Seth. Mike, I'd like to go to you next. 2024 has turned out to be a strong year for equity markets globally, particularly for US and Japanese equities. While we did see modest earnings growth, equity returns were mostly about multiple expansion. How do you expect 2025 to turn out for the global equity markets? What are the key challenges and opportunities ahead for the equity markets that you see?Mike Wilson: Yeah, this year was interesting because we had what I would say was very modest earnings growth in the US in particular; relative to the performance. It was really all multiple expansion, and that's probably not going to repeat this year. We're looking for better earnings growth given our soft landing outcome from an economic standpoint and rates coming down. But we don't think multiples will expand any further. In fact, we think they'll come down by about 5 percent. But that still gets us a decent return in the base case of sort of high single digits.You know, Japan is the second market we like relative to the rest of the world because of the corporate governance story. So there, too, we're looking for high single digit earnings growth and high single digits or 10 percent return in total. And Europe is when we're sort of down taking a bit because of tariff risk and also pressure from China, where they have a lot of export business.You know, the challenges I think going forward is that growth continues to be below trend in many regions. The second challenge is that, you know, high quality assets are expensive everywhere. It's not just the US. It's sort of everywhere in the world. So, you get what you pay for. You know, the S&P is extremely expensive, but that's because the ROE is higher, and growth is higher.So, you know, in other words, these are not well-kept secrets. And so just valuation is a real challenge. And then, of course, the consensus views are generally fairly narrow around the soft landing and that's very priced as well. So, the risks are that the consensus view doesn't play out. And that's why we have two bull and two bear cases in the US – just like we did in the mid-year outlook; and in fact, what happened is one of our bull cases is what played out in the second half of this year.So, the real opportunity from our standpoint, I think this is a global call as well – which is that we continue to be pretty big rotations around the macro-outlook, which remains uncertain, given the policy changes we're seeing in the US potentially, and also the geopolitical risks that still is out there.And then the other big opportunity has been stock picking. Dispersion is extremely high. Clients are really being rewarded for taking single stock exposures. And I think that continues into next year. So, we're going to do what we did this year is we're going to try to rotate around from a style and size perspective, depending on the macro-outlook. Vishy Tirupattur: Thank you, Mike. Andrew, we are ending 2024 in a reasonably good setup for credit markets, with spreads at or near multi-decade tights for many markets. How do you expect the global credit markets to play out in 2025? What are the best places to be within the credit spectrum and across different regions?Andrew Sheets: I think that's the best way to frame it – to start a little bit about where we are and then talk about where we might be going. I think it's safe to say that this has been an absolutely phenomenal backdrop for corporate credit. Corporate credit likes moderation. And I think you've seen an unusual amount of moderation at both the macro and the micro level.You've seen kind of moderate growth, moderating inflation, moderating policy rates across DM. And then at the micro level, even though markets have been very strong, corporate aggressiveness has not been. M&A has been well below trend. Corporate balance sheets have been pretty stable.So, what I think is notable is you've had an economic backdrop that credit has really liked, as you correctly note. We've pushed spreads near 20-year tights based on that backdrop. But it's a backdrop that credit markets liked, but US voters did not like, and they voted for different policy.And so, when we look ahead – the range of outcomes, I think across both the macro and the micro, is expanding. And I think the policy uncertainty that markets now face is increasing both scenarios to the upside where things are hotter and you see more animal spirits; and risk to the downside, where potentially more aggressive tariffs or action on immigration creates more kind of stagflationary types of risk.So one element that we're facing is we feel like we're leaving behind a really good environment for corporate credit and we're entering something that's more uncertain. But then balancing that is that you're not going to transition immediately.You still have a lot of momentum in the US and European economy. I look at the forecasts from Seth's team, the global economic numbers, or at least kind of the DM economic numbers into the first half of next year – still look fine. We still have the Fed cutting. We still have the ECB cutting. We still have inflation moderating.So, part of our thinking for this year is it could be a little bit of a story of two halves that we titled our section, “On Borrowed Time.” That the credit is still likely to hold in well and perform better in the first half of the year. Yields are still good; the Fed is still cutting; the backdrop hasn't changed that much. And then it's the second half of the year where some of our economic numbers start to show more divergence, where the Fed is no longer cutting rates, where all in yield levels are lower on our interest rate forecasts, which could temper demand. That looks somewhat trickier.In terms of how we think about what we like within credit, we do think the levered loan market continues to be attractive. That's part of credit where spreads are not particularly tight versus history. That's one area where we still see risk premium. I think this is also an environment where regionally we see Asia underperforming. It's a market that's both very expensive from a spread perspective but also faces potentially kind of outsized economic and tariff uncertainty. And we think that the US might outperform in context to at least initially investors feeling like the US is at less relative risk from tariffs and policy uncertainty than some other markets.So, Vishy, I'll pause there and pass it back to you.Vishy Tirupattur: Thanks, Mike, Seth, and Andrew.Thank you all for listening. We are going to take a pause here and we'll be back tomorrow with our year ahead round table continued, where we'll share our forecast for government bonds, currencies and housing.As a reminder, if you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Piers Butler is joined by Global Chief Economist Janet Henry for a catch-up on the world's top macro talking points as we enter the final quarter of the year. Disclaimer: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/101/lScnbwd.Subscribe to HSBC Business Edition- MENAT on Apple Podcast, Spotify, or Anghami for the latest business news and insights.Apple Podcast - https://podcasts.apple.com/ae/podcast/hsbc-business-editions-menat/id1530716865Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/3d9NPmyU64oqNGWvT0VvARAnghami - https://play.anghami.com/artist/7640230 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In recent months, the global cotton outlook has altered, and international and Australian cash prices have found support. Join Stefan Vogel and Paul Joules as they discuss the factors that have influenced the change in market dynamics and what this means for Australian cotton farmers.     RaboResearch Disclaimer: Please refer to our Australian RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com.au/knowledge/disclaimer, our New Zealand RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.co.nz/knowledge/disclaimer, and our Global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/footer/disclaimer.html for information about the scope and limitations of the Australian, New Zealand, and Global RaboResearch material published on the podcast.

Piers Butler is joined by Global Chief Economist Janet Henry for a catch-up on the world's top macro talking points as we enter the final quarter of the year. Disclaimer: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/101/lScnbwd. Stay connected and access free to view reports and videos from HSBC Global Research follow us on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/hsbcresearch/ or click here: https://www.gbm.hsbc.com/insights/global-research. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

"The global economy - it's a complicated picture, in the sense that it's doing better than we expected just six months ago but it's doing much worse than what it was doing six years ago." World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill gives his assessment of the 'glass half-full' global economy. And as the World Economic Forum publishes the latest edition of its Chief Economists Outlook, the Forum's Head of Economic Growth, Revival and Transformation, Aengus Collins, talks us through the highlights. Links: Chief Economists Outlook: Related podcasts: Check out all our podcasts on : - - : - : - : Join the :

"The global economy - it's a complicated picture, in the sense that it's doing better than we expected just six months ago but it's doing much worse than what it was doing six years ago." World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill gives his assessment of the 'glass half-full' global economy. And as the World Economic Forum publishes the latest edition of its Chief Economists Outlook, the Forum's Head of Economic Growth, Revival and Transformation, Aengus Collins, talks us through the highlights. Links: Chief Economists Outlook: https://www.weforum.org/podcasts/radio-davos/episodes/chief-economists-outlook-world-bank-indermit-gill Related podcasts: How do we ensure the green transition doesn't penalise the poorest? Globalization is in transition - not retreat, says this analyst of global trade The long game: how to understand China and how it sees its role in the world Check out all our podcasts on wef.ch/podcasts: YouTube: - https://www.youtube.com/@wef/podcasts Radio Davos - subscribe: https://pod.link/1504682164 Meet the Leader - subscribe: https://pod.link/1534915560 Agenda Dialogues - subscribe: https://pod.link/1574956552 Join the World Economic Forum Podcast Club: https://www.facebook.com/groups/wefpodcastclub

Tisha Schuller welcomes Matt Kolesar, chief environmental scientist at ExxonMobil to the Energy Thinks podcast. Matt received a bachelor's degree from The University of Akron and completed executive leadership training at the University of Michigan in June 2023. Matt is an internationally recognized 26-year ExxonMobil veteran who leads global advocacy and issue management of methane and flaring. He also manages corporate sustainability focus areas for water, land and habitat, and operational waste. Mentioned in the episode: Both of These Things Are True: The Offense Myth ExxonMobil's Global Outlook. Subscribe here for Tisha's weekly Both of These Things Are True email newsletter. Follow all things Adamantine Energy at www.energythinks.com. Thanks to Kayla Chieves who makes the Energy Thinks podcast possible. [Interview recorded on August 27, 2024]

Today we were delighted to welcome our good friend Bill Von Gonten, Founder and CEO of W.D. Von Gonten Engineering (WDVGE). Bill is a renowned oil and gas expert and entrepreneur. He founded W.D. Von Gonten & Co. in 1995, pioneering the volumetric assessment of US gas shales. In 2013, Bill established W.D. Von Gonten Laboratories, a core testing facility specializing in unconventional resources, data science and frac modeling. In 2022, these entities were combined to form WDVGE, which later partnered with National Energy Services Reunited Corporation to expand WDVGE's services to the Middle East and North Africa. Today, WDVGE operates in nearly 15 countries and has experience in every oil and gas basin worldwide. We were thrilled to host Bill for a discussion focused on the Vaca Muerta shale play and Argentina's broader energy landscape. In our discussion, Bill provides an overview of the Vaca Muerta, sharing his history and involvement with development efforts in the region. We discuss the unique characteristics of the shale play, the economic and logistical challenges of developing the Vaca Muerta, and comparative data that highlights its potential to surpass the Eagle Ford with its size, pressure and reservoir quality. Bill offers his perspective on geopolitical and economic considerations in Argentina, the future potential of the Vaca Muerta, including increased production and export capabilities, and its potential impact on the global oil and gas market through LNG and oil exports. We discuss people resources and industry infrastructure in Argentina, financial models for development, Argentina's pro-oil and gas stance, the development of oil and gas infrastructure by midstream companies, economic opportunities for Argentina, other global opportunities for unconventional oil and gas development along with their challenges, and much more. Bill's presentation slides from the discussion are linked here. It was a fascinating conversation and we sincerely thank Bill for sharing his time and insights with us today. You may recall we had an episode of COBT focused on President Javier Milei's election and the changing politics of Argentina. The discussion featured Fernando Oris de Roa, Former Ambassador of Argentina to the United States and is linked here. Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting that Fed Chairman Powell indicated last Friday “the time had come for policy to adjust” and “his confidence had grown that inflation was on a sustainable path back to two percent.” That interest rate policy pivot gave the green light for the FED to begin cutting interest rates at their mid-September FOMC meeting. On the broader equity market front, Mike shared investors are totally focused on NVIDIA's quarterly results (after the close on Wednesday) and that consensus is positioned for another beat and raise. He noted that the bar is high, and if they fail to clear it, AI & Tech stocks could take a temporary breather and the Russell 2000 and other S&P sectors could take an equity leadership role. On the energy equity front, ExxonMobil released its Global Outlook to 2050 this week (linked here). He noted a few key takeaways from the report including oil & natural gas will make up >50% of the world's energy mix in 2050 and a plateau in oil demand beyond 2030, remaining above 100mmbpd through 2050. He ended by highlighting Argentinian debt and equity performance since Javier Milei was elected President and ended with some Vaca Muerta shale stats (current and future potential). Todd Scruggs flagged a WSJ article reporting on the planned restart of the decommissioned P

What can we learn from a company that supplies premium quality kiwi to over 50 markets worldwide? Today, Rachel Depree, Executive Officer of Sustainability at Zespri, joins the show to share insights from her role at a company that manages 30% of the global volume of kiwis. Learn about Zespri's unique financial relationship with their growers, Rachel's journey to her current position, and how she enjoys leading change in a cooperative environment. Discover how Zespri's collaborative approach with their supply chain delivers shared value and the global outlook that drives their commitment to health and well-being.Rachel will discuss Zespri's strong investment in research and innovation, focusing on the health qualities of their fruit and anticipating consumer and customer trends. You'll learn how stretch targets can drive organizational innovation, the key elements that contribute to sustainable packaging, and the importance of alignment within the organization. Rachel will also explain the unique nature of relationships in the fresh produce industry, Zespri's personal connections with distributors and suppliers, and the shared responsibility for advancing sustainability practices.Key TakeawaysThe financial relationship Zespri has with their growers.Rachel's background and how she came to her role at Zespri.How they're positioning their company for the now and the future.The importance of having alignment around the organization.The role that packaging has in produce production.Some of the innovative projects Zespri has worked on.How the consumers are impacting the push for sustainability.Zespri's goals for the future.Why collaboration is essential to come up with new solutions. Guest ResourcesRachel Depree: LinkedIn | ZespriShow LinksInternational Fresh Produce Association - https://www.freshproduce.com/Fresh Takes on Tech - https://www.freshproduce.com/resources/technology/takes-on-tech-podcast/Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/InternationalFreshProduceAssociation/Twitter - https://twitter.com/IntFreshProduce/LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/international-fresh-produce-association/Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/intlfreshproduceassn/

Brought to you by our daily financial news show, The Finimize Daily Brief (Spotify), The Finimize Daily Brief (Apple Podcasts). The Fed signaled that investors might have to wait longer for a rate cut, while the World Bank hiked its forecast for the global economy.Today's stories: The Fed Signaled That There Might Be Just One Rate Cut This YearThe World Bank Lifted Its Global Growth Outlook For The YearTry Finimize Premium 

Today's podcast is brought to you by Matic, the digital insurance marketplace built for the mortgage industry. Matic works with over 100 financial institutions to integrate home insurance shopping into the lending and servicing experience. Customers can shop over 50 carriers and find a policy in minutes. See how mortgage leaders can create a new revenue stream that boosts customer happiness today at go.matic.com/chrisman. 

The World Economic Outlook is more than projected growth rates. The research behind those projections tells the story of how 190 countries, slowly but steadily, found their way through the fog of the past few years to emerge a testament to the resilience of the global economy. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas is IMF Chief Economist and brings together the multitude of analytics, data and insight that provide the signposts. In this podcast, Gourinchas says while the fears of a global recession have not materialized, the path ahead is not without obstacles. Transcript: https://bit.ly/4b5O6x6  Read the full report at IMF.org

This week's Chemical Watch News & Insight podcast marks the third and final part of our 2024 Global Outlook special edition series. In this episode, we discuss developments to watch in India and China, as well as key scientific issues in the EU and elsewhere.

Welcome to the second of three special editions focused on our 2024 Global Outlook series of articles produced by the Chemical Watch News & Insight team. In this episode, North America managing editor Kelly Franklin and Europe managing editor Leigh Stringer join senior editor Terry Hyland to discuss the outlook this year for TSCA in the US and chemicals management in the EU.

In today's episode Paolo Sironi shares with us in plain English the findings of his most recent research paper “Global Outlook for Banking and Financial Markets Regenerate Banking with AI” where he surveyed 600 banking executives about how they are working with generative AI.78% of Financial Institutions are tactically implementing generative AI for at least one use case, which makes AI governance a must-have.We cover how generative AI can transform the banking and financial sectors; why risk, compliance reporting, and client engagement lead the way in AI potential most critical use cases; making financial services accessible; Communication as a service (which is the first time I encounter this concept); skills we need to develop as an industry to adapt and thrive in the world with AI, and of course, a practical framework to manage AI risk and implement successful AI projects.As the global research leader in banking and financial markets at IBM Institute for Business Value, Paolo provides strategic insights and guidance to a network of executives among financial institutions, start-ups, and regulators. He has over 20 years of experience in quantitive risk management, investing, and digital transformation and is one of the most respected fintech voices worldwide, helping shape the future of the financial services industry. Paolo is also a bestselling author of "Banks and Fintech on Platform Economies", co-host of the Breaking Banks Europe podcast, and a sought-after international speaker.If you enjoy this Purpose Driven FinTech pod, please subscribe in YouTube, follow and leave a 5 star rating on Spotify and a review on Apple podcasts. Remember to connect in LinkedIn to keep the conversation going.Let's dive into it!

The Chemical Watch News & Insight podcast is back! Welcome to the first of three special editions focused on our 2024 Global Outlook series of articles produced by the Chemical Watch News & Insight team.  In this episode, North America desk editor Julia John, transport and storage managing editor Peter Mackay, and Europe managing editor Leigh Stringer join senior editor Terry Hyland to discuss the outlook this year for PFAS developments in the US, transport and storage regulations in different parts of the globe, and international environmental policy discussions at the UN.

Richard Hunter, Chief Credit Officer, and Justin Patrie, Senior Director, discuss the key themes of Fitch's recent 2024 Global Outlook report, including sustained elevated interest rates, asset quality deterioration, a US growth slowdown, and more.

Our global outlook for the sector remains negative for 2024, but the picture for non-bank finance companies is more varied than a year ago, with easing conditions in some markets and businesses.Speakers: Bruno Baretta, AVP – Analyst, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Michael Porta, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody's Investors Service

World oil demand is slowing, non-OPEC supply remains strong and OPEC is likely to follow through on planned cuts. Here's how investors can understand this precarious balance.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Martjin Rats, Morgan Stanley's Global Commodity Strategist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll discuss the 2024 Global Outlook for oil. It's Wednesday, the 10th of January at 2 p.m. in London. Around six months ago, oil market forecasters widely forecasted a tight second half for 2023 with considerable inventory draws. This expectation was partially driven by two factors. One, OPEC cuts, and in particular the additional voluntary cut of about 1 million barrels a day announced by Saudi Arabia back in June that took the country's production to 9 million barrels a day, about 10% lower than the average of the first half of 2023. The second factor was a positive view on demand, which had mostly surprised to the upside in the first half of 2023. The market indeed tightened in the third quarter and inventories drew sharply at the time. As a result, Dated Brant rallied and briefly reached $98 a barrel in late September. However, this was not to last in the fourth quarter. Demand disappointed, growth and non-OPEC supply remained relentless and inventories built again. Needless to say, these trends have been reflected in prices. Not only did spot prices decline, Dated Brant fell to about $74 a barrel in mid-December, but a number of other indicators, such as calendar spreads for example, signaled a broad weakening of the oil complex. Looking ahead, we expect a relatively precarious balance in 2024. Demand growth is set to slow as the post-Covid recovery tailwinds have largely run out of steam by now. Despite low investment in production capacity in recent years, the growth in non-OPEC supply is set to remain strong in 2024 and probably also in 2025, enough to meet all global demand growth. Naturally, this limits the room in the oil market for OPEC oil. When OPEC cuts production in response, as it has recently been doing, this puts downward pressure on its market share and upward pressure on its spare capacity. History warns of such periods. On several occasions when non-OPEC supply growth outpaced global demand, eventually, a period of lower prices was needed to reverse that balance. However, we argue that is not quite what lies ahead for 2024. OPEC cohesion has been robust in recent years and will likely continue this year. We expect the production cuts agreed to in late November 2023 to eventually be extended through all of 2024, and we don't exclude a further deepening of those cuts either. This would limit the pace of inventory builds in 2024, but probably not prevent them. In our base case projections, we still see inventories built modestly at a rate of about a few hundred thousand barrels a day this year, and our initial 2025 estimates also imply a modest oversupply next year. As a result, we see lower oil prices ahead, but again, not a large difference. We estimate Dated Brant will remain close to $80 a barrel in the first half of 2024, but may gradually decline towards the end of the year, trading in the low to mid $70s in 2025. That may also support our economists' call for inflation to moderate further this year. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Experience the power of AI in forecasting Markets. Subscribe to CI Markets Free: https://completeintel.com/marketsWelcome 2024 with this brand new episode of The Week Ahead. Joining us for the first time is Neely Tamminga with our regular guests Albert Marko, and Tracy Shuchart. Key themes for this episode:1. The US Consumer & EmploymentNeely, an expert in consumer trends, joins us to explore the financial landscape with a focus on consumers being overextended, multiple job holders, and the ability to repay debt. She provides valuable insights into the challenges that consumers face.Also, she shares her forecasts for January and February, discussing weaker demand optics and potential layoffs, and helps us understand how the 2024 consumption dynamics might impact consumer confidence in this presidential cycle.2. Turkey's Geopolitical AspirationsAlbert takes us on a geopolitical journey, especially focusing on Turkey. What are the lesser-known aspects of Turkey's influence in the Middle East and Africa? Albert also helps us explore the impact of Turkish defense exports, the role of Lira devaluation in geopolitical priorities, and understand Turkey's key bilateral relationships—Russia, China, Iran, Europe, and the US.3. Is Nuclear Overbought?Tracy brings her expertise to the table to address the lingering question: Is nuclear overbought? Tracy discusses the long-standing fascination with nuclear investments and the recent surge in hedge funds loading up on uranium.Tracy explores the reasons behind this bullish trend, questioning whether nuclear is overbought and what insights these funds might possess.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------This is the 94th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week. Time Stamp:00:00: Start01:59: Neely Tamminga's Perspective on Consumers08:39: Concerns about Consumer Spending10:57: Impact of Luxury Market14:47: Discussion on Turkey's Influence23:49: Turkey's Role in the Middle East and Africa32:26: Hedge Funds Investing in Uranium40:06: Political Impact on Nuclear EnergyWatch this on Youtube: https://youtu.be/PotrPb-VVQk

Questions on Protecting Your Wealth with Gold & Silver? Schedule a Strategy Call Here ➡️ https://calendly.com/itmtrading/podcast  or Call 866-349-3310

The 24th World Petroleum Congress (WPC) will be held in Calgary from September 17 to 21, 2023. The conference takes place every three years and has been described as the world's leading assembly for the petroleum industry. The organizers are expecting 15,000 visitors and 5,000 delegates from over 100 countries.  This week, we hear from Matthew Crocker, Senior Vice President, Product, Strategy and New Assets, for ExxonMobil's Low Carbon Solutions business. Matt, along with others from ExxonMobil will be at the WPC in Calgary.  Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Matt: ExxonMobil's Global Outlook projects oil and natural gas will still make up more than half the world's energy supply in 2050; why is ExxonMobil's view of oil and gas demand more than some other scenarios such as the IEA's Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE)? Considering the amount of oil and natural gas demand in ExxonMobil's Global Outlook, do you think it is possible to keep long-term global warming to less than 2°C? What was ExxonMobil's intention for acquiring Denbury, a developer of CCUS solutions and enhanced oil recovery? What other investments is ExxonMobil making in CCS? Is ExxonMobil investing in biofuels? How is policy risk factored in when ExxonMobil makes low-carbon investments? Content referenced in this podcast:  The World Petroleum Congress registration information: https://www.24wpc.com/  ExxonMobil Global Outlook: Our view to 2050    Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research InstituteSubscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsGoogle PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify

The energy transition can't be solved simply by focusing on infrastructure, digital solutions or investment alone. These three parts of the puzzle need to fit together. The federal government recognises this; at the end of June the Environmental Protection Agency, funded by the IRA, dedicated $7 billion to community solar projects. These projects will focus on supplying solar to lower-income neighbourhoods. This paradigm shift to the community and individual consumer level is welcome news to Michael Pinto, CEO of CleanWatts. They're a cleantech company focused on the local energy market – utilising the power of solar farms and AI to provide clean energy to communities. Based in Portugal, they've seen a significant increase in community-based renewable energy initiatives. What lessons have they learned in Europe that can be replicated in the US? Host David Banmiller guides us through a conversation to answer exactly that. Michael explores some of the major stumbling blocks and hurdles facing communities trying to access solar power, and how CleanWatts and others are overcoming them. In addition to looking for ways to improve energy efficiency, CleanWatts also perceives AI as an essential tool in managing and predicting future energy needs. These digital innovations enable a higher level of control, providing a more stable and resilient grid system in the face of the huge changes the energy transition places on the existing infrastructure.Two significant challenges that the industry faces are regulatory frameworks and supply chain dependencies. Speedy regulatory approvals for local energy generation constructs are critical to accelerating the energy transition. The latest announcement of funding from the US government could be a significant step on this path. Coupled with mass-scale infrastructure solutions, local demand-side activation needs to grow rapidly. Subscribe to the show so you don't miss an episode and follow us on Twitter @interchangeshowSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Marcus Ashworth, columnist with Bloomberg Opinion, joins the program to discuss the Bank of England and outlook for the UK economy. Natalie Wong, Real Estate Reporter with Bloomberg News, joins the show in studio to discuss today's Bit Take story on empty office buildings becoming a “debt time bomb." Matt Calkins, CEO at Appian (NASDAQ: APPN), joins to discuss his company's performance, new A-I products and the impact of AI on tech, and outlook for the industry and artificial intelligence. Erica Adelberg, MBS Strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to discuss her notes on mortgage pressures from the Fed and breaks down this week's housing data. Alfonso Peccatiello, author and founder of the Macro Compass, joins to discuss global economies and outlook for inflation after the latest Bank of England meeting. Rania Sedhom, Managing Partner at Sedhom Law Group, joins us in studio to discuss legal issues as it relates to work-from-home as well as non-competes and the role they play in media and the Tucker Carlson saga. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Madison Mills.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

J. Michael Springmann served in the United States government with the Commerce Department and as a diplomat with the State Department's Foreign Service, with postings in Germany, India, and Saudi Arabia. He left federal service and currently practices law in the Washington, DC, area.Springmann has been published in numerous foreign policy publications, including Covert Action Quarterly, Unclassified, Global Research, Global Outlook, the Public Record, OpEdNews, and Foreign Policy Journal. He holds a JD from American University, in Washington, DC, as well as undergraduate and graduate degrees in international relations from Georgetown University and the Catholic University of America. In 2004, the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee recognized Springmann as one of its Pro Bono Attorneys of the Year.This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/1198501/advertisement

J. Michael Springmann served in the United States government with the Commerce Department and as a diplomat with the State Department's Foreign Service, with postings in Germany, India, and Saudi Arabia. He left federal service and currently practices law in the Washington, DC, area.Springmann has been published in numerous foreign policy publications, including Covert Action Quarterly, Unclassified, Global Research, Global Outlook, the Public Record, OpEdNews, and Foreign Policy Journal. He holds a JD from American University, in Washington, DC, as well as undergraduate and graduate degrees in international relations from Georgetown University and the Catholic University of America. In 2004, the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee recognized Springmann as one of its Pro Bono Attorneys of the Year.This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/1198501/advertisement

On this episode, we're joined by Kent Wilska, Director of the Sustainable Trade Unit at the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, to discuss what a Sustainable Trade Unit does, why Finland has one...and why hot water is a key criteria for living in Scandinavia We also look at more warnings about the global economic outlook - this time from the IMF, China, Belt and Road and why Market Access might matter more when it comes to negotiating trade deals. TS producer Michelle Olguin Fluckliger is also back to give her thoughts on the vibe shift happening right under Boomers and Gen X's noses. Also big thanks as usual to Valentina Saponara for helping produce this episode!

The Fed was discussing transitory issues, but now they are talking of a mild recession. They have built a house of cards heavily reliant on rates and printing, and no one knows what could break in the system today. The unintended consequences of their actions could lead to a collapse. Despite this, the Fed may be reluctant to curb interest rates, meaning we could be in for a protracted period of recession lasting several years. Investors today are used to the Fed coming to the rescue, particularly since 2009. But if they don't, markets and investors will be confused about how the recovery will work out naturally. Credit card debt is skyrocketing and car loans are seeing defaults, leading Gareth to believe we are in for a long drawn out recession. People have been overspending since the end of the lockdowns, and soon will have to cut back. Countries with resources, particularly metals, will likely do better than most. China is seeing a surge in demand internally, and it will be interesting to see if this leads to an inflation surge. Gold is still attractive for its use as a fear trade, and can also do well during inflation. However, it has yet to outperform this year. Servicing the debt will put a burden on the system, while corporations will also have issues refinancing. There are many layoffs coming as a result. Gareth believes the downside for gold is minimal, and the upside is potentially amazing. Silver is trickier to gauge because of its industrial demand aspects, but should perform well if your time horizon is longer than average. The dollar could continue higher if we get through this recession, which will in turn pressure metals and equities. We need to keep an eye on the jobs numbers on Friday. The decline in natural gas futures has been impressive and we are now in a trading range. Gareth still believes the Bitcoin markets are likely due for a further decline, and that we are seeing similar patterns. A bear market rally appears to still be in play, and a pullback to 18,000 or even lower seems likely. A recession or pullback in equities will also impact the crypto space, so lower targets remain possible. Gareth believes regulations in crypto will benefit the markets, as it will allow institutions into the space. Right now, legally they would have a lot of trouble investing. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - Feds In Control?3:50 - Rates & Recession5:18 - Weakness Starting?7:29 - Global Outlook & China9:12 - China, Copper, & Steel10:40 - Gold & Inflation12:30 - Black Swans & Tensions13:28 - S&P Outlook Charts16:36 - Gold Chart20:36 - GDX Outlook?21:58 - Silver Chart23:00 - Dollar Direction24:15 - Energy - Crude25:25 - Trendlines & Closes26:54 - Natural Gas Futures28:46 - Bitcoin Volatility31:39 - Trading Tip33:40 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/GarethSolowayWebsite: https://inthemoneystocks.com/Website: https://verifiedinvestingcrypto.comWebsite: https://verifiedinvestingeducation.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gareth-soloway-60827953/ Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway has been an avid swing and day trader since his days at Binghamton University, where he studied Economics. After college, Gareth quickly excelled as a financial adviser, but his heart was always in swing and day trading. He had this long-standing belief that he could help investors make more money by advising them on shorter-term investments (holding a stock for days to weeks) than the buy and hold crowd who lost 50% of their money during every market collapse. "Why not profit during the bear markets just like the bull markets," he said. So while helping others gain financial independence during the day, he spent his nights studying charts and price action, developing a unique market trading system that put his profits on a rocket ship. Some nights he would barely sleep when he found a new technique that was proven, once back-tested. After building his wealth through trading in 2004,

Welcome to the second of two special editions of the Chemical Watch podcast based on this year's Global Outlook 2023 series of articles produced by the Chemical Watch News & Insight team.

For the past 12 years, Alltech has taken a look at the global feed industry on an annual basis. The latest snapshot was released last week as part of the 2023 Agri-Food Outlook.Overall, the numbers show world feed production remained steady in 2022 with a slight decrease of 0.42% to 1.266 billion metric tons. Feed production increased in several regions, including Latin America (1.6%), North America (0.88%) and Oceania (0.32%), while Europe decreased by 4.67%, Africa by 3.86% and the Asia-Pacific region also dropped 0.51%.Globally, increases in feed tonnage were reported in the aquaculture, broiler, layer and pet food sectors, while decreases were reported in the beef, dairy and pig sectors.Although it experienced a narrow reduction in feed production, China remains the largest feed-producing country in the world, followed by the United States and Brazil, according to the survey.Joining us today is to provide his insight on the current global situation related to agriculture and to provide his perspective on 2023 Agri-Food Outlook is Alltech CEO and President Dr. Mark Lyons. Dr. Lyons also shares an update on this year's ONE Conference which will be taking on a more global approach. This episode of Feedstuffs in Focus is sponsored by Alltech, where the focus is on working together for a planet of plenty.  To learn more about the One Conference visit https://one.alltech.com.

Join us on Feb. 17th at 2:00 pm CST for the webinar - A Global Outlook: One Year Into the Ukraine WarLink to Sign Up: http://bit.ly/3wjBIGXOne of the most commonly asked questions I get is “How can I attend one of your speaking engagements?” So here's your chance. On February 17th at 2:00 pm CST, I'll be hosting a Webinar to discuss the Global Outlook One Year into the Ukraine War. We'll dive into the global impacts the war has had on supply chains, agriculture, and much more. After my presentation we'll have a Q&A portion to answer all those burning questions.Those who attend the webinar will have exclusive access to a recording of the event, as well as all of my slides, charts and graphs used throughout the presentation. Can't make it to the live presentation? No problem! All paid registrants will receive access to the recorded webinar and presentation materials to review at their own convenience.

Research is telling us is that hybrid working is something most employees want, it does increase our productivity because we don't have to commute, and most companies are likely to keep it in place, but it comes at a cost. We need to be aware of these costs so we can manage them. Hybrid working does increase stress, loneliness, isolation, and disengagement. In many ways it is culture eroding. That doesn't mean we get rid of hybrid working. I believe it is here to stay. Rather it means we need to be aware of these challenges so we can take action to solve them. The consulting firm Deloitte has for the second year released its Women @ Work 2022: A Global Outlook report, a survey of 5,000 women across 10 countries The survey provides a unique glimpse into the lives of women in the workplace amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The responses from around the globe made it clear that women's “everyday” workplace experiences were having a detrimental impact on their engagement and that the pandemic was having a severe impact on women's lives and careers, including their work/life balance and wellbeing. Emma Codd, Global Inclusion Leader for Deloitte joins me on the podcast today to discuss the report's findings in more detail. We discuss the issues women face with hybrid working, flexible working and overcoming the barriers to their advancement at work. Emma states that women that work in a hybrid manner which was around half of the respondents that can work in a hybrid way, of those respondents, 60% said they'd experienced exclusion in the past year.  Around 50% said they weren't getting the access they needed to leaders which we all know how important sponsorship is for anybody that is in an underrepresented group is so important.  Suddenly that's not there anymore. Emma states there are four questions every organization globally should be asking; often only needing tweaks to resolve the outcome, but still action taking place:   Question One: Does your culture allow employees to feel safe when asking for flexible working? If not, how can it change? Question Two: Do all employees feel connected?  If not, why not? Question Three: Do all employees belong? Why do employees feel isolated? Question Four: Does each employee have equal access to support?  How can this access improve?   Deloitte Women @ Work 2022 Survey   Emma Codd

Highlights:      “BlackRock released their 2023 Global Outlook report, and in the report, the chairman Tom Donilon has announced to his investors that we are indeed entering into what he calls a new world order. Not the Orwellian kind, actually it's Aldous Huxley, ‘Brave New World', it's a new world order that represents nothing less than the death of globalism itself.” “Get ready for a far more nationalist-populist, traditionalist world order that is smashing to bits the current globalist world order.” “In the midst of all of this absurd insanity going on in our own nation with Bumblin' Biden and the neocon RINOs, this is why I always remain so optimistic. The world is moving in our direction even while our own political circumstances can so often look so dire. And there's nothing the Dolts in DC or the Bullies in Brussels can do to stop a new nationalist-populist, civilizationalist world order rising.” Timestamps:           [01:17] Why Tom Donilon, the chairman of BlackRock, said that a new world order is rising [03:44] Why what he said is huge, and why financial media is far more in touch with reality than legacy media [05:43] The determinative forces that are indeed ending the days of leftwing liberals Resources:  SAVE OVER 25% OFF your 1-Month Emergency Food Supply Kit here! SAVE OVER 25% OFF your 1-Month Emergency Food Supply Kit here! Http://GetReadyWithSteve.com 1331 Katie Hobbs PANICS over 3 HUGE BOMBSHELLS at Trial!!! Get Over 66% OFF All of Mike Lindell's Products using code TURLEY: https://www.mypillow.com/turley Join my Insiders Club Community with a 14 Day Free Trial + A Welcome Gift at https://insidersclub.turleytalks.com/ Learn how to protect your life savings from inflation and an irresponsible government, with Gold and Silver. Go to http://www.turleytalkslikesgold.com/ Make sure to FOLLOW me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DrTurleyTalks Download D r. Steve's personal research sources and his list of woke alternatives for FREE at https://www.drsteveblueprints.com Get 25% off Patriotic Coffee and ALL ITEMS with Code TURLEY at https://mystore.com/turley Get Your Brand-New PATRIOT T-Shirts and Merch Here: https://store.turleytalks.com/ It's time to CHANGE AMERICA and Here's YOUR OPPORTUNITY To Do Just That! https://change.turleytalks.com/ Fight Back Against Big Tech Censorship! Sign-up here to discover Dr. Steve's different social media options …. but without censorship! https://www.turleytalks.com/en/alternative-media.com Thank you for taking the time to listen to this episode.  If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe and/or leave a review. Do you want to be a part of the podcast and be our sponsor? Click here to partner with us and defy liberal culture! If you would like to get lots of articles on conservative trends make sure to sign-up for the 'New Conservative Age Rising' Email Alerts.

The Holidays bring lots of gifts, and one that we look forward to each year in the financial world is the upcoming year's forecasts. On this week's episode, Greg and Doug examine and discuss 2023 outlooks from several of the world's largest asset managers. The guys take stock of a wild 2022, give their own predictions for next year, and debate how recency bias annually plays into these prognostications. Key Takeaways [01:33] - BlackRock's 2023 Global Outlook [04:30] - Historical rebounds after market declines [05:34] - 10-Year Bonds vs. CDs [08:00] - Vanguard 2023 bond market outlook [10:35] - International markets and the Euro vs. the Dollar [13:34] - JP Morgan 2023 outlook [17:28] - Today's price of oil [18:00] - Our takeaways from these 2023 predictions [20:00] - Bonds from the long-term planning perspective [21:22] - 2023 market predictions [24:17] - Next year's housing market [26:39] - How recency bias affects forecasts Quotes [04:21] - “After you've had these sorts of declines, typically the markets are positive when you look at one year, three years, five years, 10 years. So,  if you're thinking about it just from a historical standpoint, you would want to be risk-on, and that means getting short-term on the bond side of the equation to the extent that you have fixed income exposure. And then you would want to have a higher allocation towards equities, because presumably if history is any guide, equities would outperform after these sorts of periods.” - Greg Stokes   [25:40] - “It seems like every year there's a certain level of uncertainty that exists that has never existed before. It's that recency bias that makes you fearful of taking any action from an investment perspective because so many things could go wrong. It happens every single year. That's why you have to have a long-term game plan investment-wise to take your risks with money that you can afford to lose and develop an investment strategy over a period of time longer than 2023.” - Doug Stokes Links BlackRock 2023 Global Outlook Ben Carlson - Getting Long-Term Bullish Vanguard Bond Market Outlook JP Morgan 2023 Outlook Marko Kolanovic Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com   Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

We probe key issues raised in our recently published 2023 global economic outlook. In the face of near-term risks to China and Western Europe we continue to  see the global economy to move forward on the back of fading supply-shocks that lowers inflation and fading DM fiscal drags. This will not, however, likely deliver a soft-landing scenario and we discuss the alternative scenarios in which the US and global economy could slip into recession over 2022-23.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton Greg Fuzesi Jahangir Aziz   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

On this episode of InsideOut, we chat with Stuart Winters, CEO, U.S. Healthcare at Sodexo. Stuart and I discuss how his global insights are paving the future for US Healthcare at Sodexo.

Are you curious about the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report and recent crop tours?  Would you like to speculate alongside Ryan and Sal?  On this episode of The High Ground, powered by Premier Companies, hosts Ryan Priest and Sal Sama are joined by returning guest, Aaron Bledsoe.  As the grain merchandiser for Premier Companies, Aaron is able to provide a unique perspective on all things grain-related.Aaron covers a variety of hot topics on this episode including the global and local outlook, the rollercoaster ride the beans have been on, and provides thoughts on differences between the Pro Farmer tour and the USDA reports.  Aaron also tackles a massive string of “ifs” to discuss what the near term looks like and what it looks like to truly be a risk manager.  “The reward is high, but it costs a lot to play this game.”

Fintech is one of the fastest growing industries on the globe today.   In this episode, we take a look at the projected growth of Fintech through the perspective of crypto to real-time payment systems.   Shamir Karkal, Co-founder and CEO at Sila and Cara Hayward, Director of Strategic Partnerships, North America at Currencycloud, both see the bright future of the Fintech industry as it expands with crypto-currency to real-time payment systems.   Join us as we discuss: Biggest trend in Fintech is growth Staying power of Fintech  Global movement to real-time payment systems The crypto ecosystem   To ensure that you never miss an episode of Payments Innovation, subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or here, and don't forget to check out our YouTube!  Until next time!