Beyond Markets

In this episode of the Week in Markets, equities research analyst Louis Chua explores how the equity and debt markets have reacted to the 90-day truce in the trade war between the US and China, and what are some of the lingering concerns to watch over the next 90 days. Overall, while the financial markets have reacted with relief, we believe that the US fiscal situation remains far from being solved, and we would take advantage of the current opportunity to add diversifying exposure outside the US. In the long term, an end to US exceptionalism and foreign investors' asset allocation decisions to diversify away from the US can have a significant impact to equity and fixed income markets.

The US and China have agreed to a 90-day truce in the trade war, following negotiations in Geneva. As part of the deal, the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China will lower its duties on American goods from 125% to 10%. Markets have welcomed these developments, but key questions still remain about the implications for the economy and inflation. This uncertainty puts the Federal Reserve (Fed) in a tough spot, and we await more clarity on the Fed's direction from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on 15 May.   In Asia, the India–Pakistan conflict has calmed following a US-mediated ceasefire. We note that historically markets have typically recovered within a month of previous India-Pakistan conflicts, and continue to monitor key indicators such as the Indian Rupee and Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) flows, as well as geopolitical developments.   This episode is presented by Chintan Bhindora from the Julius Baer Research Asia team.

In this episode of The Week in Markets, equities research analyst Jen-Ai Chua discusses the Trump effect on US GDP growth and on recent election outcomes in Canada, Australia and Singapore. The flight to safety by voters and investors have favoured familiar incumbents and driven capital flows into gold, European equities and Chinese stocks. Markets are likely to remain in wait-and-see mode as investors await the FOMC rate decision on 7 May and the BoE decision a day later. The age-old adage to ‘Sell in May and go away' could prompt some risk-averse investors to reconsider their stock positions. Historical evidence supports outperformance in the November-April time period, albeit 68% of the time.

US Treasuries and equities staged a strong comeback last week after US President Donald Trump appeared to strike a conciliatory tone on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and on the tariff deadlock with China. However, several US manufacturing activity indicators point to renewed contraction in regional manufacturing activities, and polls conducted by ABC News and The Washington Post revealed that 64% of respondents disapprove of the Trump tariffs, and 7 in 10 believe that the tariffs will lead to higher inflation.Against this backdrop, Julius Baer now expects two 50 bps rate cuts for the US, and have raised its recession probability to 50% from 35% for the next 12 months.This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia at Julius Baer.

US President Donald Trump escalated his open criticism of Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell on Monday, sparking concerns about the central bank's independence. Meanwhile,​​Trump is also ramping up pressure on China, imposing fresh restrictions on the export of Nvidia's H20 AI chips. However, the University of Michigan consumer survey indicates that US consumer sentiment is rapidly declining, arguably placing him under growing pressure to strike a deal with Beijing.This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China strategist and Head of Research, Hong Kong at Julius Baer.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury moved up 50 basis points last week, representing one of the most significant single-week increases on record. As the US administration's unpredictable tariff policies continue to unsettle markets, how can investors navigate this challenging investment landscape?Steve Wang, Fixed Income Specialist Asia at Julius Baer, sits down with Esteban Burbano, Managing Director and Fixed Income Strategist at PIMCO, to discuss the current economic picture, the impact of tariffs on inflation expectations and how the Federal Reserve might respond, the state of the US Treasury market, and the opportunities in the fixed income market amidst this unprecedented volatility.(This episode was recorded on 17 April 2025)

US President Trump's Liberation Day tariff announcements sent shockwaves through financial markets and 2 April 2025 will certainly be remembered as a hugely significant day. But what are the implications for investors in the wake of all the tariff-related uncertainty? In this episode, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research at Julius Baer, talks to Helen Freer about navigating the world of investing post-Liberation day. They discuss the risk of a recession, the role of US and non-US assets in portfolios, the outlook for safe-haven assets including the US dollar, and much more.00:31 Introduction01:07 Has the risk of a US and global recession increased?03:24 What is the expected timeline now?05:20 Is it possible to say what Trump's plan is?06:41 The US Federal Reserve's dilemma08:14 Impact on capital flows to the US09:49 Adjusting exposure to US and non-US assets10:58 Where do US technology stocks go from here?12:36 The outlook for the US dollar now15:21 The reaction of the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen16:23 Historic moves in bond markets18:46 What to focus on now in the fixed income space20:19 Thoughts on gold in the current environment22:16 What does the situation mean for Swiss equities?23:38 The role of Chinese equities in a portfolio26:44 The significance of talks between the EU and China27:49 Exposure to India to increase portfolio diversification29:02 The relevance of the Q1 earnings season30:29 Oil prices under pressure31:48 Our expectations for the rest of the year33:31 OutroWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Recent spikes in Treasury yields, public criticism from Republican mega-donors on the tariff policy, and calls by Wall Street CEOs to the White House and the Treasury Secretary, seem to have caught the White House's attention. Reciprocal tariffs on all countries (excluding China), and tariffs on many electronics goods have been paused. Investors are taking some comfort in the White House's attentiveness to the Treasury market. But until the tariff issues are resolved, significant uncertainty will continue to weigh on the market.

pullback amidst the market turmoil, the yellow metal has risen around 20% overall in the past six months and continues to chart new highs.In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, examine the rising demand of gold as a safe haven asset, continued central bank buying flows, and the factors behind the recent volatility.

In this episode of Beyond Markets we take a closer look at water. With water scarcity and extreme weather events on the increase, what do listeners need to know about water-related challenges and opportunities from both a societal and investment perspective? We are joined by Carsten Menke and Maeve Timoney from Julius Baer's Next Generation Research team to answer these questions and much more.   Hosted by Emily Rookwood, Head of Thought Leadership at Julius Baer. 

Like in the Star Wars movie “The Phantom Menace”, the taxation of trade routes is leading to turmoil, including market turmoil. Bond and oil prices suggest the economy is about to abruptly slow down, following US President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff announcements. The hope is the rest of the world will quickly come and negotiate with Trump, and some are. But the largest bilateral trade relationship is between China and the United States. China has called his bluff, raising its tariff on US imports to 52%.Comparisons of indicators such as volatility ratios, deviations from averages and investor sentiment between today and previous flash crashes, all indicate high chances of the S&P 500 index being higher a year from now. But fundamentally, there's no way to know what things will look like a year from now. We expect US valuations to compress and valuations to expand, as foreign savings fund domestic growth in Europe and China.

Global markets have been roiled by US President Donald Trump's sweeping "Liberation Day" tariffs. Against such a volatile and uncertain backdrop, it is important that investors remain calm and take the opportunity to rebalance and optimise portfolios.This episode is presented by Bhaskar Laxminarayan, Asia CIO for Julius Baer.

New tariffs will surely lead to a rise in inflation, as will the oil price, if Iran ignores Trump's ultimatum to a new nuclear deal. With inflation expected to stay high, we look for only one rate cut this year, and think 2026 will be an easier year to cut rates. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is technically weak, having broken its March low. It is heavily weighted toward the champions of Artificial Intelligence that have driven the bull market of the past five years. The consensus forecast for 2025 S&P 500 index EPS growth that was over 13% in February, is below 10% today. But since World War 2, April has been the second-best month of the year for the S&P, and in the years when the S&P fell by 3% or more in March, April had an average gain of 6%.

The second inauguration of Donald Trump has resulted in something of an upheaval for equity markets. The imposition of tariffs, or the threat of them, has led to uncertainty and heightened volatility, prompting a rotation out of US megacap stocks and into European and other global equity markets. It's not an easy time to pick stocks.In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writer, talks to Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research, about his team's approach to stock selection, what sectors they favour currently, and the subsectors that may offer the best opportunities in the months ahead.00:31 – Introduction and background02:37 – The impact of tariffs03:25 – Our preferred Regions/Sectors05:20 – Our stock-picking process06:46 – Financials and Industrials09:36 – Information Technology10:32 – Stand-out subsectors14:00 – Balancing equity portfolios in the current environment15:43 - Conclusion16:20 – Legal disclaimerWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

This year, the S&P 500 index has been in what technical analysts call a “broadening formation” of wider swings, that signals increasing volatility and typically precedes large price moves. While the second Trump administration is less chaotic​​ than the first, it is overwhelming any opposition with a blitz of activity. The thinking is there is no time like the present, and it's better to do the hard things first to get any economic slowdown they might cause out of the way, before mid-term elections are held in November next year. Meanwhile, the uncertainties Trump has created have ignited animal spirits in long-dormant and lazy economies, and by extension their stock markets.

The world is witnessing a rapid shift towards de-globalisation, accelerated in part by the new US administration. Meanwhile, ongoing disputes over tariffs, trade imbalances, and the widening US fiscal deficit continue to dominate global discussions.In this episode of Beyond Markets, Rishabh Saksena, Head of Investment Specialists Asia at Julius Baer, is joined by Vance Serchuk, Executive Director of the KKR Global Institute. They discuss the implications of these issues on the global economy, and examine which regions are well-positioned to thrive amid this increasingly uncertain geopolitical landscape.  

There has been a significant correction in US markets since mid-February, with the S&P index down around 8%, and the Nasdaq down around 12%. Surprisingly, this has come on the back of reasonably good earnings from the previous quarter and forward-looking guidance. This shift in investor sentiment appears to be driven by rising policy risks, and a decrease in the "Trump put" effect - the market's previous belief that government intervention would support asset prices.In this episode, Bhaskar Laxminarayan, Chief Investment Officer Asia at Julius Baer, shares his expectations for markets, sectors we favour, and insights on the bond markets in this uncertain environment. 

Germany's surprise €500bn infrastructure plan marks a historic break from fiscal restraint, shaking up markets and boosting European stocks.Meanwhile, US economic uncertainty under Trump is fueling recession fears, pushing Treasury yields down and challenging USD strength.We also break down Japan's bond market surge and what it means for global investors.This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Asia at Julius Baer.

The initial read of the third session of China's 14th National People Congress has been generally in line with economist expectations. Concurrently, ongoing shifts in US policies, especially on tariffs, continue to disrupt the broader macro narrative. Surprisingly, Hong Kong stocks have rallied steadily amidst these developments, whilst US stocks have reacted much more negatively. What is our outlook for these markets, and what does it mean for the US dollar? This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research for Hong Kong at Julius Baer, and Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group. This episode was recorded on 6 March, 2025.

An unprecedented clash between Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump at the White House last Friday has called into question the strength of the US-Europe relations. Investors are also watching several other key macro events this week – potential additional tariffs from the US on China, Canada and Mexico, as well as China's “Two Sessions” annual meetings taking place on March 5 and 6. This episode is presented by Eric Mak from the Equity Research Asia team at Julius Baer.

With inflation expectations rising, credit spreads at historical tights, and US Treasury moves dictating market sentiment, how should investors position their portfolios? In this episode, Elaine Ngim, Head of Investment Advisory Singapore at Julius Baer sits down with Jonathan Liang, Head of Fixed Income Investment Specialists, Asia ex-Japan at JP Morgan Asset Management and Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research at Julius Baer to break down the top-of-mind issues in fixed income markets and the corporate credit landscape today. Key topics include:(01:42) - How inflation expectations impact credit markets (04:32) - The outlook for credit spreads – are we due for a widening? (06:16) - Does investment success hinge on getting the US Treasury view right? (08:22) - The US dollar's strength and its implications for emerging markets (09:49) - Why active management is critical in volatile bond markets (12:12) - Managing volatility to achieve better risk-adjusted returns (13:03) - The evolving role of CDS (13:40) - Lessons from past market drawdowns (14:38) - Common misconceptions about credit investing (16:25) - Key takeaways for equity-focused investors

In this episode of The Week in Markets, equities research analyst Jen-Ai Chua discusses the implications of two European-centric developments – the freshly concluded German Federal Elections which has returned the conservatives to power, and the growing likelihood of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Both developments are positive for risk, with equities – in particular, cyclical stocks – likely to benefit. Looking ahead, Nvidia's Q4 2024 earnings numbers, and US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price data, are both scheduled for release in the coming week. Whether they meet, miss or beat will determine if markets can end February on a positive note.

European stock markets have excelled so far this year but to what extent does this reflect the continent's economic health and what is the outlook for investing in Europe going forward? In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, David Kohl, Chief Economist at Julius Baer, talks to Helen Freer about how he expects inflation in Europe to develop, the European Central Bank's next steps, and what impact US President Trump's threat of tariffs might have on the region. They also discuss potential opportunities for investors.00:37 Introduction01:01 Europe's economy – lack of competitiveness has created downward pressure on wages03:13 Expectations from the ECB05:12 Underlying inflation pressure is weakening06:53 Will a bigger interest rate differential lead to a weaker euro?08:20 Tariff threats and what it means for Europe10:10 Is the lack of competitiveness in Europe partly due to the euro?11:46 What factors may lead to an improvement in the European economy?14:00 Potential opportunities for investors15:28 The automotive industry16:59 Will geopolitics create more challenges or opportunities for Europe?19:15 How significant is the upcoming German election and what could a new government focus on?20:46 SummaryWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Inputs from US inflation indices released last week infer a January core Personal Consumption Expenditure reading of 0.27% month on month, lower than the 0.3% the consensus expects. January retail sales fell 0.9%, the largest decline since March 2023. Together, these data should reverse talk that rates would have to go up again this year. US President Donald Trump is now talking about reciprocal tariffs, which would be much less punitive than the 25% on Canada and Mexico he had been talking about before. US and Russian officials say they will start talks on ending the war in Ukraine in coming days. Reuters reports that Chinese President Xi Jinping will chair a symposium to boost private sector sentiment this week that will be attended by the big technology company founders/CEOs.

With a mixed set of US jobs data last week, investors are looking to this week's inflation numbers and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony for clearer guidance on the Fed's next steps. In China, optimism is rising with DeepSeek's disruption of the AI sector and better-than-feared impact from Trump's tariffs. We also discuss the role of Gold and Bitcoin in risk hedging.This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research for Hong Kong at Julius Baer.

In addition to the typical seasonal tailwinds from the Chinese New Year, three key factors are also driving the recent rally in Chinese equity markets: the better-than-feared impact of US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs, growing domestic optimism following the release of China's DeepSeek AI, and rising policy expectations ahead of the National People's Congress in March.Join Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research for Hong Kong at Julius Baer, and Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group, as they dive each of these key developments shaping China's market landscape.

In this episode of The Week in Markets, Jen-Ai Chua, Equities Research Analyst at Julius Baer, highlights how Chinese AI start up DeepSeek has upended traditional assumptions underpinning growth in the AI sector. This spells opportunities and risks for players in different parts of the supply chain. In other developments, the Fed's decision to hold rates at its January Open Market Committee Meeting hints at possible inflation pressures, while President Trump's imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China are classic shock and awe tactics that herald the start of a period of political noise and uncertainty.

Every day we read new statistics about how much investment is needed to maintain ageing infrastructure and to build new infrastructure that will keep pace with modern economies.  Governments can only provide a portion of the trillions of US dollars needed every year, making private investment essential.In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast ‘Introduction to Private Infrastructure', Fiona Kenyon, Head of Private Markets Advisors, Julius Baer talks to Tara Courtney Davies, Partner and Co-Head of KKR EMEA and Co-Head European Infrastructure, about private infrastructure: what it is, as well as its relevance to investors. In their conversation they discuss the important dynamics and developments investors should know about, and the role it can play in a sophisticated portfolio.00:41 Introduction to speakers and topic01:42 What is infrastructure?02:27 What characterises infrastructure assets?03:43 Global infrastructure needs04:24 Tailwinds fuelling infrastructure investment06:02 The role of private investment06:34 Private infrastructure investment in a portfolio context08:43 Risks to consider when investing in infrastructure 10:34 Incorporating infrastructure assets into appropriate portfolios11:43 Considerations regarding semi-liquid investment products12:46 ConclusionWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets have had a busy week as we approach the Chinese New Year of the Wood Snake. The US Dollar index started to move lower after President Donald Trump appeared to soften his stance on China. Meanwhile, the US economy remains robust, and US equities are jumping on earnings wins by the most since 2018.In Asia, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.5% on the back on domestic wage pressures and core inflation which remains firmly above the 2% target. Over in Singapore, the Monetary Authority of Singapore eased monetary policy for the first time since 2021.This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Asia at Julius Baer.

There was a clear relief rally in both the stock and rates market, following softer-than-expected US CPI numbers last week. In the grand scheme of things however, asset pricings have swung between growth and inflation or policy shocks over the past year. In this episode, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, discusses the significant treasury moves over the past year, the implications of the latest CPI print, and what to watch out in rates and equities markets.

Cracks in market sentiment have begun to surface in the first three weeks of 2025. A slew of negative headlines and rumours include the outgoing Biden administration placing several Chinese tech giants on the “Chinese Military Companies” list, and the tariff threats from the incoming Trump administration continue to be an overhang on markets. How do we see the US-China trade relationship in 2025, and how should investors position accordingly? Our experts also discuss the key US inflationary drivers to watch out for in 2025, and the path for the Chinese Yuan and Chinese equities given the recent policy announcements from the People's Bank of China. This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.

In this episode of the week in markets, equities research analyst Jen-Ai Chua highlights how stronger-than-​expected non-farm payrolls data for December has pushed up Treasury yields, resulting in a yawning gap in US and Chinese government bond yields. This has put downward pressure on the Chinese Yuan – although it is not the only currency in Asian expected to soften. The Singapore Dollar, hitherto one of the stronger currencies in Asia, is also likely to weaken this year as inflation ebbs. US consumer and producer price inflation data out this week, and Q4 2024 earnings releases by financial heavyweights will likely determine if the US equity market can trek higher. 

In this episode of Beyond Markets, we are joined by Markus Waeber, Head of Indirect Real Estate and Intelligence, to discuss the latest developments in real estate and how investing in the ‘living' sector can also be an investment in your quality of life. Hosted by Emily Rookwood, Head of Thought Leadership.

The S&P 500 index's internal indicators signal a top may be in the making. After two years of returns in excess of 20%, the index trades at a pricey forward price/earnings ratio of 22x. Renewed inflation concerns could be a catalyst for a serious correction. We remain fully invested but contemplate reducing risk at some point in the year. While the consensus among Wall Street strategists is that the S&P will rise 12% this year, studies show their accuracy as a group is less than 50%. As a group, they've also never predicted a down year, while in fact one in four years has historically had a negative return.

In its December 18 meeting, the Federal Reserve signalled that inflation is going to be higher than it expected. If the Fed has to raise rates again at some point next year, the market would not like that at all. The S&P 500 index has returned 60% in the last 2 years, and is trading at valuations seen only in the dot-com and pandemic stimulus booms.But the final phase of a bull market can last a painfully long time for those who try to be contrarian. We remain invested, but contemplate reducing risk at some point in 2025. It will be a year of capital preservation, after 2 years of capital growth.

A survey done by the National Federation of Independent Business finds a surge of optimism among small business owners in the United States since the election. Meanwhile, not one of the world's largest economies is expected to be in a recession next year. That sentiment is reflected in the world stock market index, which is back to touching the upper band of its ascending channel, for the first time since late 2021. A large venture capital-backed unicorn has a successful IPO last week, despite still being loss making. With 27% of the S&P 500 index's market capitalisation in just five companies, concentration in the stock market is at an all-time high. But concentration has never been a useful predictor for forward returns; in fact high levels of concentration have historically coincided with good forward returns.

In 2024, we witnessed the normalisation of many economic variables, notably inflation and growth, clearing the path for monetary policy easing in the US and Europe. Looking to 2025, with a new Republican administration in place in the US there will be plenty of changes to digest. Our analysts believe that the key to success will be closing significant fiscal, geopolitical, and corporate deals whilst also achieving economic growth. What does this mean for financial markets and those who invest in them?In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast ‘Market Outlook 2025 – The art of the real deal', Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, talk to Bernadette Anderko about the market environment, why they expect broadening equity returns, and which sectors are set to benefit from likely growth and policy shifts in 2025.00:37 Introduction to topic and speakers01:06 Broad expectations for 202502:08 Monetary policy oulook02:43 Trump tariff implications for Europe03:18 Trump tariff implications for Asia04:45 Equity preferences in Asia06:19 Developed market equity stance06:57 Preferred cyclical sectors07:35 The impact of the Republican sweep10:02 USD bond opportunities10:27 EUR bond opportunities11:02 The duration sweet spot11:29 Emerging market bonds11:49 Our view on gold's outlook12:44 Next Generation: Cloud computing & AI; Extended longevity14:39 Next Generation: Future cities15:14 Summary of our outlook for 202515:50 Closing commentsWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

As our world continues to be riven by instability and conflict, global wealth inequality is becoming one of the most pressing matters of our time. With the divide between the haves and the have nots continuing to grow, increasing numbers of people are dedicating their time and resources to tackling this societal imbalance as generational attitudes to creating impact and having social purpose are changing. This episode of Beyond Markets features CEO of the Julius Baer Foundation Laura Hemrika discussing the state of modern philanthropy and how people can get involved and is hosted by John Franklin, Marketing Specialist at Julius Baer.

President-elect Trump has threatened steep tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, China, and BRICS economies. Are these bold threats a negotiating tactic, or could they reshape global trade? Our experts discuss the potential impact on China, its domestic policies, stock market, and the Yuan.This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.

​​The market wants to close the year on a high note, with the S&P 500 index's total year-to-date return exceeding 30%. The consensus estimates around 13% earnings growth for both 2025 and 2026. The futures market implies a Fed funds rate of 3.65% by February next year, an over 100 basis point decline from where it is today. In such circumstances, it's not hard to imagine the bull market in stocks could keep going, barring an inflation shock.​​Keywords: S&P 500 index, all-time high, earnings growth, interest rate cut, Fed funds rate, deregulation, David Perdue, ambassador to China, Hang Seng index

The growing demand for solar power is fueling concern about a looming shortage of silver. But how much of this is fact, and how much is speculation? What does the future hold for this essential metal?Join Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading Asia and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, as they dive into the data and uncover the realities of silver's supply, demand, and its role in energy transition.

The Economist magazine ran a story recently, titled “Should investors just give up on stocks outside America?”. It epitomizes the view that many have taken; although the US economy is only 25% of the world economy, its stock market is 75% of world stock market capitalization. Yet the reasons for this are not without merit. Companies would rather list on the US stock market than those of their home countries. Further tax cuts are likely to happen in the US. And its economy has emerged from the pandemic more powerful than any other. As a case in point, a decade ago the GDP per capita of the United States and Canada were almost the same. This year, that of the US is expected to be $86,000, and Canada's just $54,000. US economy, stock market, tax cuts, December, strategist S&P 500 index forecasts, Canada, Mexico, BRICs, tariffs, sanctions

The Q3 earnings season is out of the way, US elections resulted in a swift and decisive Republican sweep, and the incoming president has nominated a likely equity-friendly nominee for the post of Treasury Secretary. The ducks still seem to be in a row for a year-end rally, but what tweaks have our strategists made to their calls, and where do they think investors should focus their attention as we head into the final stretch of the year?In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writer, talks to Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, about how the earnings results compared in Europe and the US, and what the dynamics are going forwards. They delve into which cyclical sectors are preferred and Mathieu also explains why some sectors have now fallen out of favour and why others should now be in focus.00:31 Introduction to topic and speaker01:14 Summary of US Q3 earnings season02:33 Summary of Europe Q3 earnings season03:30 Stock price reactions to earnings04:10 Is it too late to join the equity rally?06:47 Why we overweight Financials and prefer US stocks08:06 The reason Industrials remain overweight09:04 Our preference for mid-caps over small-caps10:22 Healthcare moves to Neutral12:10 Thoughts on tech and the Magnificent 712:29 Latest ratings changes on equity sectors14:28 What to take away from the conversation15:18 Closing commentsWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Following the shift in the political landscape in the US, we now expect higher nominal growth in the US driven by both real growth and inflation.  Given less room for rate cuts by the Fed next year, we now expect yields to stay higher for longer and Fed funds rate to be above neutral for next year. There are still many moving parts and it is too early to quantify the consequences of the political shift in terms of trade policy and fiscal policy. Our message is investors now benefit from a better starting point in bond markets, compared to a few months back and also refined our risk budget in line with our core assumption of higher nominal growth in the US. In this episode of Beyond Markets, Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Asia at Julius Baer, discusses the near term outlook and strategy for fixed income into 2025.

In this episode of Beyond Markets, Carsten Menke and Norbert Rucker, Next Generation Research experts at Julius Baer, discuss the boom in AI and data centres and what this means for energy and the econom

The S&P fell 2% last week, but it is still 1.5% higher following the Donald Trump's victory at the 2024 US presidential election. Serious change looks set to be coming under a second Trump administration. The new administration will implement a libertarian vision, which includes economic freedom, and thus a push for freer markets, and a leaner and more efficient government promised by the new “Department of Government Efficiency” limits the risk of unproductive allocation of capital. On inflation and interest rates, the October consumer and producer price inflation numbers both came out hotter than expected. The most recent initial jobless claims reading was also at the lowest since May. Such developments call into question the narrative that interest rates are going to continue declining at the faster pace expected a few months ago. This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

The past week has been marked by three major global events: the US presidential election, Federal Reserve meeting and the National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting in China. In this episode, Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, breaks down each of these developments and the impact on the global economy and investments.

US stocks surged after Donald Trump's 2024 presidential election victory — but what does this mean for the future of the markets?In this episode, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research and William Fong, Co-Head, Alternatives & Strategic Solutions Asia at Julius Baer, explore their outlook on equities, bonds, and other key asset classes, examining where opportunities and risks may lie ahead.

In this monthly China update, our experts discuss the recent shift in sentiment around Chinese equities, expected policy changes from the National People's Congress meeting, and the critical factors in solving China's structural challenges. They also examine the implications of a Trump or Harris presidency on China's economy and global supply chains, as well as the outlook for the Chinese Yuan and gold. This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.

In this episode of The Week in Markets, equities analyst Jen-Ai Chua provides an in-depth look at the current landscape as we approach this week's US Presidential election. We also explore the factors supporting potential upside for stocks, including strong year-end seasonality, anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and corporate earnings continuing to hold up.

US equities and gold continue to make new historical highs, while markets approach a pivotal period with major upcoming events. From key Q3 US earnings reports, the US Presidential election to China's NPC congress and the aftermath of Japan's general election. What are the investment implications of these events and how can investors navigate the uncertainties ahead? This episode is presented by Eric Mak from the Equity Research Asia team at Julius Baer.