Podcasts about reverse repo

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 11, 2025 43:59

Reverse Repo WARNING! McDonalds Reveals Truth About Economy, Huge Investment Opportunity✅ Come to Rebel Capitalist Live here https://rebelcapitalistlive.com/ ✅Check out my private, online investment community (Rebel Capitalist Pro) with Chris MacIntosh, Lyn Alden and many more for $1!! click here https://georgegammon.com/pro ✅Rebel capitalist merchandise https://www.rebelcapitaliststore.com

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RABBIT HOLE RECAP #343: THE SECOND AMERICAN REVOLUTION

Rabbit Hole Recap

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 6, 2025 106:25

More Info on the Show: https://rhr.tv - Tether, Lightning Labs Announce USDT on Lightning Network https://www.nobsbitcoin.com/tether-lightning-labs-announce-usdt-on-lightning-network/ - The FDIC has released 175 internal documents on "Operation Chokepoint 2.0" https://www.fdic.gov/foia/correspondence-related-crypto-related-activities - Block's Proto Partners with The 256 Foundation to Support Open-Source Bitcoin Mining https://www.nobsbitcoin.com/blocks-proto-partners-with-the-256-foundation-to-support-open-source-bitcoin-mining/ - The Human Rights Foundation Awarded All 11 Bitcoin Development Bounties https://www.nobsbitcoin.com/the-human-rights-foundation-awarded-all-11-bitcoin-development-bounties/ El Salvador | Lawmakers Scale Back Bitcoin Legal Tender Law El Salvador's congress amended its Bitcoin law, making private sector acceptance of Bitcoin voluntary. The reform follows a $1.4 billion loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that wanted to limit the government's, citizens', and economies' exposure to Bitcoin. Salvadoran lawmaker Elisa Rosales said the latest reform guarantees Bitcoin's “permanence as legal tender” while facilitating its “practical implementation.” But, John Dennehy, founder of the civil society organization Mi Primer Bitcoin, explained that the reform removed “all references of bitcoin as money or legal tender, plus the actual conditions, such as the government accepting bitcoin for things such as taxes, are now prohibited.” The future of freedom technology in El Salvador will be worth monitoring closely as the regime continues to erode protections on civil liberties. FinancialFreedomReport.org - Sparrow Wallet v2.1.1: Lark for USB Signers, PSBTv2 Support & More https://www.nobsbitcoin.com/sparrow-wallet-v2-1-0/ - ZEUS v0.9.5: Easier Exporting of On-Chain Seed, Optimizations & More https://www.nobsbitcoin.com/zeus-v0-9-5/ - BDK Wallet v1.1.0: v2 Transactions in Tx Builder by Default, Testnet4 Support https://www.nobsbitcoin.com/bdk-wallet-v1-1-0/ - Rust-nostr v0.39.0: NIP-96, NIP-22 Helpers, Custom WebSocket Client Support & More https://www.nobsbitcoin.com/rust-nostr-v0-39-0/ - Damus Notedeck v0.3.0 (Alpha 2): Public Release https://www.nobsbitcoin.com/notedeck-v0-3-0-alpha-2/ - Lockbox Relay https://primal.net/e/note1qqqydxxwdsndc5wzg4xuc32z00wwemuyglvrp5ax2kn76lhj0m6smpkdpf - Trump announces Sovereign Wealth Fund https://primal.net//e/note1ql20qsnc42jrkamx6lpvh8ffn4ekyhqrkuzvca60ucmyfj23hh7q2set07 0:00 - Intro 2:59 - America's feeling rowdy 4:53 - Dashboard - Mempools cleared 16:01 - USAID 38:02 - Sovereign Wealth Fund 44:59 - Trump and Israel 49:07 - Tether LN 57:49 - FDIC Chokepoint 2.0 FOIA 1:05:16 - Microstrategy rebrand 1:08:31 - Block Proto & 256 Foundation 1:10:00 - HRF Bounties 1:13:59 - HRF Story of the Week 1:18:36 - Reverse Repo draining 1:19:31 - Boosts 1:28:49 - Software updates 1:36:04 - Sovereign Wealth clip 1:40:00 - Fewsats 1:43:36 - Bread and circuses Shoutout to our sponsors: Unchained https://unchained.com/concierge/ Bitkey https://bitkey.world/ Stakwork https://stakwork.ai/ Coinkite https://coinkite.com/ TFTC Merch is Available: Shop Now https://merch.tftc.io/ Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://tftc.io/podcasts/ Follow Odell: Nostr https://primal.net/odell Newsletter https://discreetlog.com/ Podcast https://citadeldispatch.com/

SPECIAL: Market Chaos - The AI World War Has Begun | Clem Chambers

SF Live

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 1, 2025 52:30

In this special episode of Soar Financially, I sit down with Clem Chambers, a leading voice in financial markets, to break down the chaos triggered by Deep Seek's major AI announcement. We discuss Nvidia's staggering $420 billion drop in valuation, the broader market's reaction, and the deeper implications of what Clem calls the "AI World War." We explore how AI is reshaping industries, why gold is becoming increasingly vital as global tensions rise, and what this all means for investors. Clem shares his perspective on market volatility, the importance of hard assets, and how to navigate this unprecedented moment in the financial world. #DEEPSEEK #MARKETCRASH #GOLD ----------- Thank you to our #sponsor MONEY METALS. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://bit.ly/BUYGoldSilver ------------

This Is Peak Hawkishness From The Fed | Joseph Wang

On the Margin

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 18, 2024 51:03

In this special crossover episode with Forward Guidance, Joseph Wang joins the show to discuss the latest Fed decision, its December economic projections, and what to expect from markets going into 2025. We also delve into why he expects way more than two rate cuts next year, why he's bearish on US equities in 2025, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Joseph Wang: https://x.com/FedGuy12 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world's crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we'll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com. MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Key Features: Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set Scalable up to 10k TPS Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3 Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:26) Hawkish FOMC Conference (06:03) Immigration Impact (09:32) 2025 Surprises (12:16) Trump, Trade, & Tariffs (14:43) What Is The Fed Thinking? (20:07) Peak Hawkishness (21:41) Long-Term Rates (23:07) SEP As A Psychological Tool (25:16) Ads (26:41) Fed Surveys & Politics (28:29) The Neutral Rate (30:27) How The Fed Gauges Restrictiveness (32:11) Reverse Repo (37:52) Treasury Coupon Issuance (39:38) Equities & The Dollar (43:15) Gold & Crypto (45:07) Long Bonds, Commodities, & Inflation (49:42) Main Takeaways — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This Is Peak Hawkishness From The Fed | Joseph Wang

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 18, 2024 52:25

In this episode, Joseph Wang joins the show to discuss the latest Fed decision, its December economic projections, and what to expect from markets going into 2025. We also delve into why he expects way more than two rate cuts next year, why he's bearish on US equities in 2025, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Joseph Wang: https://x.com/FedGuy12 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:44) Hawkish FOMC Conference (06:21) Immigration Impact (09:50) 2025 Surprises (12:34) Trump, Trade, & Tariffs (15:01) What Is The Fed Thinking? (20:25) Peak Hawkishness (21:59) Long-Term Rates (23:25) SEP As A Psychological Tool (25:34) Ads (27:27) Fed Surveys & Politics (29:15) The Neutral Rate (31:13) How The Fed Gauges Restrictiveness (32:57) Reverse Repo (38:38) Treasury Coupon Issuance (40:25) Equities & The Dollar (44:01) Gold & Crypto (45:54) Long Bonds, Commodities, & Inflation (50:28) Main Takeaways __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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Fed's Reverse Repo Levels Are Plummeting—Should We Be Concerned?

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Play Episode Listen Later Sep 18, 2024 28:34

The Rebel Capitalist helps YOU learn more about Macro, Investing, Entrepreneurship AND Personal Freedom.✅Check out my private, online investment community (Rebel Capitalist Pro) with Chris MacIntosh, Lyn Alden and many more for $1!! click here https://georgegammon.com/pro ✅Rebel capitalist merchandise https://www.rebelcapitaliststore.com

Breaking Down the Disconnect Between TradFi & Crypto | Austin Campbell

On the Margin

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 12, 2024 51:39

In this episode, Austin Campbell joins the show to discuss the modern banking system and how crypto is driving innovation. We also delve into stablecoin designs, their role in dollar hegemony, the pros and cons across the spectrum of decentralization, and much more. Enjoy! – Follow Austin Campbell: https://x.com/CampbellJAustin Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin NYDFS Stablecoin Guidance: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/regulatory/us-regulatory-nydfs-stablecoin-guidance.pdf – MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ – Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii – Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:46) Austin's Background (03:21) Unpacking the Banking System (06:15) Money Markets & Reverse Repo (10:35) Crypto's Role in Banking (14:05) Stablecoin Designs & Reserves (22:00) What is Crypto Solving? (27:33) Mantra Ad (28:14) Spectrum of Decentralization (32:34) CBDCs (36:41) Blockchains vs Databases (40:06) Permissionless Ad (40:46) Crypto & Dollar Hegemony (44:52) Backlash to Crypto (47:46) Crypto Market Outlook – Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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Zinsen, Reverse Repo und die stille Gefahr!

Wallstreet Stories - Von Tradern, für Trader

Play Episode Listen Later May 2, 2024 7:10

Hier geht es direkt zu unserer kostenlosen Ausbildung: https://rb.gy/convpj Unsere kostenlose Signalgruppe: https://t.me/+RPcN_Ya4voxaQLB0------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Melde dich bei den Brokern an, mit denen wir selber handeln und 100% Vertrauen haben, dass auch du die besten Konditionen erhältst: Krypto Exchange mit den besten Konditionen und geringsten Gebühren: https://partner.bitget.com/bg/KN5C4E Unser Forex- und CFD Broker: https://my.roboforex.com/en/?a=jlmt Viel Spass und bis bald, Dein Trading_Dom von der Wallstreetstory Dominick

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Trung Quốc dùng công cụ tiền tệ cuối cùng để cứu vãn kinh tế ?

TẠP CHÍ KINH TẾ

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 9, 2024 9:28

Tăng trưởng chậm tại và khủng hoảng địa ốc kéo dài khiến Ngân Hàng Trung Ương Trung Quốc liên tục giảm lãi suất, "bơm thêm" thanh khoản để khuyến khích tiêu thụ và đầu tư. Những biện pháp "truyền thống" dường như chưa đủ mạnh. Bắc Kinh cân nhắc sử dụng đến "công cụ tiền tệ cuối cùng" để cứu vãn tình hình. « Mua lại công trái phiếu » của chính phủ là gì ? Hiệu quả đến đâu và tại sao giới trong ngành thận trọng với « công cụ tiền tệ này » ngay cả khi đã được chủ tịch Trung Quốc đã gợi ý ? RFI tiếng Việt mời chuyên gia về tiền tệ và ngân hàng, Victor Lequillerier, đồng sáng lập viên cơ quan tư vấn BSI Economics, Paris, trả lời các câu hỏi trên.Nhật báo Hồng Kông ngày 28/03/2024 nhắc lại tuyên bố từ tháng 10/2023 của ông Tập Cận Bình là « cần sử dụng triệt để hơn và mở rộng các công cụ tiền tệ », đã đến lúc « Ngân Hàng Trung Ương từng bước mở rộng các khoản giao dịch công trái phiếu trên thị trường mở ». Từ đó đến nay, chỉ thị này vẫn chưa được chấp hành. Thống đốc Phan Công Thắng (Pan Gongsheng) vẫn chưa mua vào công trái của chính phủ. Nhưng theo giới quan sát đấy chỉ là vấn đề thời gian, bởi Ngân Hàng Trung Ương Trung Quốc đang chịu áp lực rất lớn để phải tính đến giải pháp đã « không được sử dụng từ hơn 20 năm qua ».Thiếu thanh khoản hay khối lượng tiền lưu hành tăng không đủ nhanh ?Trên đài RFI Việt ngữ, Victor Lequillerier ngạc nhiên về đề nghị của ông Tập Cận Bình đòi Ngân Hàng Trung Ương sử dụng một công cụ « gây nhiều tranh cãi » trong chính sách tiền tệ của Trung Quốc. Nhưng trước hết, đồng sáng lập viên cơ quan tư vấn BSI Economics, Paris phân tích vì sao báo chí Trung Quốc nhắc lại gợi ý của ông Tập từ mùa thu 2023.Victor Lequillirier : « Phải đặt lại bối cảnh tuyên bố này. Thực ra đề xuất đã được ông Tập Cận Bình nêu lên từ hồi tháng 2023 nhưng từ đó đến nay Ngân Hàng Trung Ương không tỏ ra mặn mà. Vả lại, tình hình kinh tế Trung Quốc hiện tại có vẻ khả quan hơn. Tháng 10 năm ngoái, tăng trưởng bị chựng lại ; Trung Quốc bị đặt trước nguy cơ bị giảm phát ; đầu tư tăng rất chậm và đó cũng là thời điểm người ta hoài nghi về khả năng thanh toán và khả năng đi vay thêm tín dụng của một số chính quyền cấp tỉnh, cấp địa phương. Sau khóa họp Quốc Hội vào tháng 3/2024 Bắc Kinh đề ra mục tiêu 5 % tăng trưởng cho năm nay. Mục tiêu đó chỉ đạt được nếu như chính quyền trung ương tăng ngân sách chi tiêu để kích cầu (…). Sở dĩ giờ đây báo chí Trung Quốc nhắc lại tuyên bố này của ông Tập, có lẽ công luận thực sự lo ngại là tình trạng tài chính của nền kinh tế thứ hai toàn cầu đang xấu đi và vì nên vậy phải kết hợp cùng lúc hai công cụ để vực dậy kinh tế. Nghĩa là vừa phải tăng ngân sách vừa phải nới rộng các chính sách tiền tệ và phải tích cực hơn trong nỗ lực vận dụng cả hai công cụ này ».Nhưng về cơ bản « mua lại công trái phiếu là gì » và trong trường hợp của Trung Quốc, giải pháp đó có hiệu quả hay không ? Victor Lequillerier : « Áp dụng biện pháp đó có nghĩa là Ngân Hàng Trung Ương Trung Quốc trực tiếp hoặc gián tiếp can thiệp để thúc đẩy kinh tế. Ngân Hàng Trung Ương không bơm thêm tiền để làm tăng mức nợ công của nhà nước hay của các chính quyền địa phương. Định chế này chỉ mua lại công trái phiếu nhà nước phát hành và có thể là chúng đang do các ngân hàng thương mại, ngân hàng đầu tư … hay các chính quyền địa phương nắm giữ. Trong trường hợp của Trung Quốc có nghĩa là chính sách tiền tệ sẽ có hiệu quả lớn hơn, một khi mà những ai đang nắm giữ công trái phiếu được bảo đảm rằng, ở bất kỳ thời điểm nào, chúng cũng có thể được hoán chuyển thành tiền mặt. Điều đó có nghĩa là lãi suất chỉ đạo ngân hàng sẽ lại càng được giảm xuống, qua đó những lãi suất tín dụng khác cũng giảm xuống theo …. Câu đặt ra là liệu rằng biện pháp mua lại công trái phiếu có thích hợp với trường hợp của Trung Quốc hiện nay hay không ? Tôi nghĩ là không : bởi vì Ngân Hàng Trung Ương vẫn còn nhiều công cụ có thể sử dụng được trước khi cần phải mua lại công trái phiếu ». Chưa cần đến giải pháp cuối cùng Mua lại công trái phiếu cho phép nới lỏng định lượng ngân hàng, qua đó giảm lợi suất trái phiếu và kích thích kinh tế nhưng đối với Trung Quốc, thì thứ nhất là lãi suất đã được giữ ở mức thấp và thứ hai là như chuyên gia về tài chính ngân hàng của Pháp Victor Lequillerier vừa giải thích Ngân Hàng Trung Ương Trung Quốc vẫn còn nhiều lá chủ bài trong tay trước khi phải sử dụng đến đòn mua lại công trái phiếu như ông Tập Cận Bình đề xướng. Đồng sáng lập viên cơ quan tư vấn BSI Economics cho rằng trước mắt Ngân Hàng Trung Ương Trung Quốc chưa sử dụng hết tất cả những công cụ có sẵn trong tay :Victor Lequillerier : « Những công cụ đó thông thường là các loại lãi suất ngân hàng, với một vài nét hơi đặc biệt của Trung Quốc. Tôi muốn nói đến lãi suất LPR, tức là lãi suất cho vay cơ bản. Ở Trung Quốc LPR có thời hạn 5 năm được xem là một lãi suất để tham khảo và từ đó ấn định lãi suất thế chấp trên thị trường. Ngoài ra còn có những công cụ tài chính khác như các khoản giao dịch Repo và Reverse Repo để những ai đang nắm giữ cổ phiếu hoặc công trái phiếu dễ dàng bán đi với cam kết là sẽ mua lại chúng trong một thời hạn nhất định với giá cao hơn so với giá đã bán ra ban đầu. Biện pháp này cho phép nhanh chóng huy động tiền mặt. Công cụ thứ ba là lãi suất cho vay trung hạn MLF. Cuối cùng, Ngân Hàng Trung Ương vừa có thể điều chỉnh các loại lãi suất ngân hàng như đã nói, vừa có thể điều chỉnh mức dự trữ bắt buộc của các ngân hàng. Hạ thấp khoản dự trữ bắt buộc cho phép ngân hàng dễ dàng mở van tín dụng, cấp thêm vốn cho tư nhân, cho các chính quyền địa phương để thúc đẩy kinh tế. Vậy tại sao lại phải sử dụng đến chính sách « mua lại công trái phiếu » ? Trên nguyên tắc, mua lại công trái phiếu là liều thuốc sau cùng, khi « đã hết thuốc chữa ». Tuy nhiên tình trạng của Trung Quốc không tuyệt vọng đến như vậy bởi vì Ngân Hàng Trung Ương Trung Quốc vẫn có thể tiếp tục hạ lãi suất để kích cầu ». Coi chừng lợi bất cập hại Đề xuất của ông Tập Cận Bình là con dao hai lưỡi. Một mặt biện pháp này cho phép kích cầu nhờ lãi suất chỉ đạo ngân hàng được hạ xuống thấp. Mặt khác, lãi suất thấp cũng có nhiều bất lợi cho Trung Quốc nhất là khi mà suất ngân hàng ở Mỹ, châu Âu đang tăng lên cao. Đồng nhân dân tệ bị mất giá và vốn đầu tư ngoại quốc có khuynh hướng « chạy » sang nơi khác với hy vọng kiếm lời cao hơn.Ngoài ra Ngân Hàng Trung Ương Trung Quốc thận trọng với giải pháp của ông Tập Cận Bình do biện pháp mua vào công trái phiếu sẽ thổi nên những quả bóng đầu cơ khác và đó là điều Ngân Hàng Trung Ương không muốn xảy ra.Câu hỏi cuối cùng : giải pháp huy động Ngân Hàng Trung Ương mua lại công trái phiếu có cho phép kích thích tăng trưởng của Trung Quốc và ngăn chận hiện tượng chảy máu đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài khỏi Hoa Lục hay không ? Victor Lequillerier : « Ở đây có hai vấn đề : quyết định của ông Tập là nhằm tăng cường mọi khả năng để hạ lãi suất ngân hàng và bảo đảm rằng mọi tác nhân trong chuỗi kinh tế của Trung Quốc không sợ bị thiếu thanh khoản, bởi đã có Ngân Hàng Trung Ương đứng ra bảo đảm. Hệ quả kèm theo là các chính quyền địa phương có thể huy động thêm vốn để tiếp tục tài trợ các công trình xây dựng cơ sở hạ tầng. Trong trường hợp cần thiết, họ được trung ương, qua vai trò của Ngân Hàng Trung Ương cung cấp tiền mặt. Nói cách khác các cấp tỉnh, cấp vùng có phương tiện để đạt mục tiêu tăng trưởng 5 % như trung ương đã đề ra. Nhưng bên cạnh đó biện pháp này không giúp giải quyết vấn đề Trung Quốc đang để thất thoát đầu tư nước ngoài. Nguyên nhân dẫn đến hiện tượng đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài vào Hoa Lục giảm mạnh là do những chính sách kinh tế của Bắc Kinh, do môi trường cạnh tranh bất lợi cho doanh nghiệp ngoại quốc.... Thành thử biện pháp mua vào công trái phiếu không giúp Bắc Kinh đảo ngược thế cờ và lôi kéo trở lại các nguồn đầu tư của quốc tế vào Trung Quốc ». Bên cạnh những phân tích thuần túy mang tính kỹ thuật của ngành ngân hàng đó, giới nghiên cứu cũng lưu ý rằng : Bắc Kinh đang đi tìm một « mô hình kinh tế mới » với « những mục tiêu tăng trưởng đầy tham vọng » có nghĩa là vừa phải « ổn định được những gì đang đem lại tăng trưởng cho Trung Quốc từ trước đến nay » (như bất thị trường nhà đất, như các công trình xây dựng cơ sở hạ tầng) đồng thời phải « ồ ạt đầu tư vào các mảng công nghệ mới » (trong số này bao gồm từ trí tuệ nhân tạo đến công nghiệp sản xuất xe ô tô điện hay pin mặt trời …).Trung Quốc ý thức được rằng lĩnh vực địa ốc, có trọng lượng tương đương với gần 1/3 tổng sản phẩm nội địa trong ba năm liên tiếp cần phải được hồi sinh. Các giới chức chính trị và kinh tế ở Bắc Kinh hiểu rõ hơn ai hết là đầu tàu tăng trưởng của Trung Quốc trong những năm sắp tới không phải là sản xuất hàng may mặc hay máy tính điện tử và kể cả những tấm pin mặt trời mà là những trang thiết bị viễn thông thế hệ mới, là bí quyết làm chủ trí tuệ nhân tạo … do vậy Trung Quốc cần rất nhiều vốn trong giai đoạn chuyển đổi sang một nền công nghệ của tương lai. Để bảo đảm tăng trưởng cho cả các lĩnh vực truyền thống và tương lai đó mà Trung Quốc cần huy động nhiều vốn tối đa và trong thời gian ngắn nhất. Có lẽ đấy mới là chủ đích khi ông Tập huy động Ngân Hàng Trung Ương mở rộng chính sách tiền tệ.

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The Fate Of The Fed's Balance Sheet | Lou Crandall & Joseph Wang on Draining of Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility, Timeline of QT Taper, and 2024 Tax Refund Data

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Play Episode Listen Later Mar 8, 2024 52:07

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Lou Crandall on Twitter https://twitter.com/Fedwatcher Joseph's piece on Real Rates: https://fedguy.com/higher-real-rates-for-longer/ More about Wrightson ICAP: https://www.wrightson.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks' Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:40) Reverse Repo Decline Driven By A) Decline In Fed's Balance Sheet And B) Increased Supply Of Treasury Bills And C) Private Repo Market Demand (05:45) The Liquidity Demands Of The Basis Trade (Long Cash Treasurys / Short Treasury Futures) Is Drawing Money Out Of Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility (12:40) VanEck Ad (13:22) Lou's Accurate Prediction On Why Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) Would Not Be Renewed (It Wasn't) (17:10) Fed's Balance Sheet Policy: Quantitative Tightening (QT) (25:30) Summary From Jack (27:01) Money Market Data Could Indicate QT Will Continue For Longer (28:28) DAS Ad (33:14) Interest Rate Outlook On Fed Cutting Cycle (37:17) Inflation And Real Interest Rates (43:43) Potential Government Shutdown In U.S.?? (46:33) Tax Season Approaches! The Plumbing Of Refunds (49:31) Joseph's Closing Thoughts On U.S. Fiscal Situation __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Matt King, Founder, Satori Insights, LTD

Alpha Exchange

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 5, 2024 58:29

Efforts to understand the “why” of the motion in asset prices consume our time and attention in markets. To be sure, traditional sources of risk – namely the economy, the path of corporate profits and changes in the interest rate cycle – do matter. But, as Matt King argues, especially since 2012, we increasingly need to monitor what's happening in the financial plumbing where Treasury and Central Bank driven fund flows can be responsible for powerful liquidity dynamics. Serving sometimes as a headwind and at others a tailwind, flows like QE as well as changes in the TGA and Reverse Repo facilities influence the manner in which investors interact with risk assets. After a nearly two decade stint at Citi, Matt recently founded Satori Insights, an independent firm helping institutional investors navigate today's uneven and complicated waters of risk. A main aspect of our conversation is his take on the resilience of the US consumer and broader economy in 2023, set against one of the fastest tightening cycles on record and the Fed's QT program. Matt's work suggests that tying favorable asset price results in 2023 to this resilience leaves out a critical point. He states that while the Fed's balance sheet was nominally reduced by roughly a trillion last year, markets wound up enjoying a trillion in new liquidity. His framework, tying a trillion dollar increase in reserves to roughly a 10% increase in the equity market, helps explain the dislocation between asset price performance like tighter credit spreads and traditional fundamentals like defaults. Through the lens of liquidity that Matt utilizes, the risk asset outlook for 2024 is less favorable. He cautions that the Fed may have done more on the hiking front than they should have, underestimated the impact of their balance sheet policies on asset prices. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Matt King.

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Ethan Heisler on the 2024 Banking Sector

Simply Put

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 26, 2024 34:47

The banking sector managed to avoid the worst case scenarios that some predicted in March 2023. But with banks still adjusting to the Fed's aggressive monetary tightening during the last two years, they are now shifting their attention to managing prospective rate cuts later this year. Meanwhile, the Fed's Quantitative Tightening, Reverse Repo facility, and the 2023 Bank Term Funding Program are all set to reach critical inflection points during the next few months. In this episode, Ethan Heisler, editor in chief of The Bank Treasury Newsletter, discusses how banks can best position themselves in this dynamic environment.

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T06E21. Reverse repo y el fin de la liquidez

Money Talks: El otro lado de la moneda

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 17, 2024 34:54

En este episodio platicamos sobre el mercado de repos y reverse repos de la Fed, y de cómo la tendencia actual en dicho mercado podría causar problemas de liquidez en el futuro cercano

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Joseph Wang: Bonds Will Be Crushed By Stocks As Fiscal Deficits Reignite Inflation

Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 8, 2024 64:17

On today's episode, Former Fed trader, CIO at Monetary Macro & Author Joseph Wang joins the show to discuss his outlook for 2024. Joseph walks through his stock market "crack up boom" thesis, the rise of fiscal dominance & the path ahead for bonds as the U.S runs record high deficits. We then deep dive into the Fed's QT program, the reverse repo outlook as well as broader financial plumbing and how it may impact markets in the year ahead. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! Today's interview is sponsored by Public. Add fixed income to your portfolio with corporate, Treasury, and municipal bonds. Go to https://public.com/forwardguidance to get started. __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks' Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:33) Disinflation Is Transitory (07:48) Record Deficits Will Fuel A Stock Market Rally In 2024 (11:34) The Fed Will Cut Rates Three Times In 2024 (16:33) Why Isn't The Fed Pushing Back Against Market Pricing? (19:22) Fading The Recessionista's (23:25) The U.S Dollar (26:52) Quantitative Tightening (35:45) The Reverse Repo (46:32) Mortgages Role In The Fed's QT (54:39) Housing (01:01:10) The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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Unusual Whales Pod Ep. 33: Markets Melt Up, Dovish Pivot, and FOMC Rate Pause with Macro Experts

Unusual Whales

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 13, 2023 90:47

Unusual Whales Pod Ep. 33: Markets Melt Up, Dovish Pivot, and FOMC Rate Pause with Macro ExpertsThis episode of Unusual Whales Pod was recorded live on December 13th, 2023, prior to the FOMC Presser by Jerome Powell outlining the Fed's continued rate hike pause. Our panelists discuss everything from projected Federal rate cuts, dot plots, U.S. Treasuries and Bonds, the Reverse Repo facility, VIX and implied volatility of the markets, and what the overall macroeconomic outlook holds for us as we dive into the new year.Panel:Joseph Wang https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Michael Kao https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboyThelastbearstanding https://twitter.com/LastBearStandngRandy Woodward https://twitter.com/TheBondFreakCem Karsan https://twitter.com/jam_croissantHosted by:Nicholas FNS: https://twitter.com/NicholasFNSUnusual Whales: https://twitter.com/unusual_whalesThis Pod is not financial advice. Unusual Whales Inc. is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) or any state securities regulatory authority. The stock market is risky, and any trade or investment is expected to have some, or total, loss. Please do research before any trade. Do not use this information for financial decisions or for investing. You should consult your legal or tax professional regarding your specific situation.**Disclaimer:Any content referenced in the video or on Unusual Whales are not intended to provide legal, tax, investment or insurance advice. Unusual Whales Inc. is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) or any state securities regulatory authority. Nothing on Unusual Whales should be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security by Unusual Whales or any third party. Certain investment planning tools available on Unusual Whales may provide general investment education based on your input. You are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, investment strategy, security or related transaction is appropriate for you based on your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances and risk tolerance. You should consult your legal or tax professional regarding your specific situation. You can lose some or all of your investment. See terms for more information.

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Did The Santa Claus Rally Already Happen? Pullback Likely Ahead | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 9, 2023 94:22

With such a massive run-up in stocks and bonds in November, should we still expect a Santa Claus rally in the markets this month? Or did it already happen? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks that may be the case, or if we do get one, it will be quite mild. Unless a pullback happens soon, which Lance thinks is quite possible. He's reducing his long exposure and waiting for a pullback at this point. In this week's market recap, Lance and I talk about the strong correlation between financial asset prices and net liquidity. For much of this year, "stealth" liquidity from sources like the BTFP, the Reverse Repo program, and fiscal deficit spending have helped buoy stocks to near record highs. Will that continue in 2024? We also talk about the odds for recession risk, which are becoming cloudier. Experts are now quite divided on the matter. With such uncertainty, how should an investor consider positioning their portfolio? Lance shares how he, as a capital manager clients, is doing so now. SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #recession #bonds #liquidity

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Ep. 447: The Reverse Repo Market May Be Telling Us When The Fed Will End QT

TEK2day Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 1, 2023 2:33

The overnight reverse repo market (ON RRP) sat at $887 billion last night, down from $2.6 Trillion at the peak on December 30th 2022. As the Fed slowly removes liquidity from the system through QT, Banks and Non-Bank institutions are parking less capital overnight at the Fed. Think of the reverse repo balance as excess liquidity in the system. The RRP balance could be at zero by March 2024 (or shortly thereafter) at the current RRP drawdown trajectory. Perhaps when the ON RRP balance gets close to zero this dovish, interventionist Fed will stop its QT program. Something to watch for. Full article here: https://tek2day.substack.com/p/the-reverse-repo-market-may-be-telling

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Reverse Repo (RRP) Explainer & Markets Update

The Bitcoin Layer

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 18, 2023 36:53

Welcome to The Bitcoin Layer, where we bring you research, analysis, and education for all things bitcoin and macro. In this episode, Nik dives deeper into the Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) facility and gives a brief history of its origin and function. He explains how the RRP relates to other portions of the Fed's balance sheet as well as other money market sectors. Lastly, Nik provides an update on Treasury yields, the yield curve, and monetary policy expectations. New YouTube videos M/W/F — New Substack posts T/R/S The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit https://river.com and start buying today, or visit https://river.com/TBL for $5 free when you sign up and buy $100 in Bitcoin. Subscribe to TBL on Substack: https://TheBitcoinLayer.substack.com Follow TBL on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer Follow TBL on LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/TheBitco... Follow TBL on Instagram: https://instagram.com/TheBitcoinLayer Follow TBL on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebitcoinlayer Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform. Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch Sign up for the free Monetary History course on @SaylorAcademy : http://sylr.org/MonetaryHistory Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc Research Associate Joe Consorti's Twitter: https://twitter.com/JoeConsorti Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball Block Height 817242 #TheBitcoinLayer #NikBhatia #JoeConsorti #Recession #Recessions #TreasuryBills #Repo #ReverseRepo #CMEGroup #QT #QE #PMI #InvertedCurve #CPI #ISM #GDP #SOMA #Equities #Manufacturing #Steepening #HousingMarket #EconomicCycle #Housing #FederalReserve #Riskmarkets #USHousingMarkets #Global #GlobalRecession #CentralBanks #Banks #Economy #InterestRates #Inflation #Stocks #StockMarket #Yields #USGoverment #Bonds #BondMarket #Volatility #TradingView #Trading #Charts #Debt #Statistic #Rates #Interest #Expense #Treasury #Global #LiquidityIndex #Risk #Asset #Bitcoin #USD #FED #Dollar #Sats #Gold #BTC #Market #Currency #Crypto #Analysis #Investment #News #Finance #Education #Blockchain #Mining #BitcoinMining #Macro The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on Soundwise

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The Trillion Dollar Fed Secret Explained | Reverse Repo

ITM Trading Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 3, 2023 11:29

Questions on Protecting Your Wealth with Gold & Silver? Schedule a Strategy Call Here ➡️ https://calendly.com/itmtrading/podcast or Call 866-349-3310

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Reverse Repo Meltdown: Will the Fed's Safety Net Collapse?

ITM Trading Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 2, 2023 28:35

Questions on Protecting Your Wealth with Gold & Silver? Schedule a Strategy Call Here ➡️ https://calendly.com/itmtrading/podcast or Call 866-349-3310

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#DaveKranzler : How #Gold, #Silver Prices Are Linked To The Reverse Repo Facility

Arcadia Economics

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 20, 2023 1:00

Discover the intricate relationship between the bond market, the reverse repo facility, and precious metal prices with Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics. Learn about the dynamics affecting the funding of the US treasury supply and the implications for gold and silver. Dive into the details—watch the video now!

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Preston Pysh & Andy Edstrom | Bitcoin Q4 Macro Update | EP 129

Swan Signal - A Bitcoin Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 19, 2023 70:43

On this episode of Swan Signal, Sam was joined by Preston Pysh and Andy Edstrom for another edition of their popular quarterly macro update. Listen to their thoughts around the exploding debt levels, spot Bitcoin ETFs, the impacts of rising oil in the midst of rising geopolitical uncertainty, and hear their predictions for the coming quarter.Timestamps:00:00:00 “Swan Signal” Intro00:03:18 Yellen says, “U.S. Can Fund Two Wars”00:08:28 What's the Bond Market Saying?00:12:30 Whats Causing the Spike in Yields?00:21:38 “Reverse Repo” and “Free Markets”00:26:41 Financial Repression00:28:55 The Price of Oil Soars00:39:35 Bitcoin ETF - “A Flight to Quality”00:46:32 Risks with Derivatives and the Importance of Learning Self-Custody00:53:27 Performance of Bitcoin and Gold with “Real-Rates” Rising00:59:08 “Bitcoin is Hope”01:00:38 Q4 Predictions!01:07:43 Connect with Preston and Andy01:09:34 "Swan Signal" OutroConnect with Sam, Preston and Andy:Sam Callahan: https://twitter.com/samcallahAndy Edstrom: https://twitter.com/edstromandrewPreston Pysh: https://twitter.com/PrestonPyshConnect with Swan Bitcoin: YouTube: https://youtube.com/@Swan_Bitcoin Twitter: https://twitter.com/Swan Instagram: https://instagram.com/SwanBitcoin Telegram: https://t.me/swanbitcoin LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/swanbitcoin Swan Bitcoin is the best way to accumulate Bitcoin with automatic recurring buys and instant buys from $10 to $10 million. Start your Bitcoin journey today, and your first $10 purchase is on us https://swanbitcoin.com/yt Download the all-new Swan Bitcoin App https://www.swanbitcoin.com/app/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_description Get your ticket for the Pacific Bitcoin Festival 2023 before prices increase! https://www.pacificbitcoin.com/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_description Secure your bright orange future with the Swan IRA today! Real Bitcoin, no taxes https://www.swanbitcoin.com/bitcoin-ira/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_description For high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guide https://www.swanbitcoin.com/private/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_description Want to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out the Bitcoin Canon a curated list of the best Bitcoin resources from your favorite experts https://swanbitcoin.com/cannon/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_description Get paid to recruit new Bitcoiners by joining Swan Force https://www.swanbitcoin.com/enlist/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=youtube_description

Dave Kranzler: How Gold, Silver Prices Are Linked To The Reverse Repo Facility

Arcadia Economics

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 19, 2023 19:00

#DaveKranzler: How #Gold, #Silver Prices Are Linked To The Reverse Repo Facility The bond market has sold off again this morning, with the yield on the 10-year note reaching as high as 4.99%, before declining back down to 4.94% in the last few hours. All ahead of a speech by Jerome Powell to the Economic Club of New York at noon eastern on Thursday, where one of the items market participants will be looking for is commentary on the surge in longer-term rates. Of course the treasury market is inter-linked with the gold and silver trading. And in today's show, Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics takes a look at how the reverse repo facility is affecting the yield curve, and how the drain of reverse repos is also going to be impacting the gold and silver prices. He explains why the balance of reverse repos has been going lower in the current market environment, a trend that began when the treasury lifted the debt ceiling limit and started accelerating its borrowing levels again. And he talks about what happens when this balance runs out, how that affects the funding of the US treasury supply, and who's going to have to step back in to fund all of it. This is all a continuation of the underlying reasons that have led people into gold and silver over the past few decades, although these current dynamics lay out why the issue is coming to a head, and bringing the moment of truth for the metals all that much closer. So to get a better understanding of why gold and silver investors are (or should be) keeping a close eye on the reverse repo facility, click to watch this video now! - To see the Rick Santelli tweet that Dave references go to: https://twitter.com/StealthQE4/status/1714694169686352205 To read an explanation of the Fed's Reverse Repo Facility go to: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/overnight-reverse-repurchase-agreements.htm To get access to Dave's Mining Stock Journal go to: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/ To find out more about Silver Viper Minerals go to: https://silverviperminerals.com/ - To join our free email list and never miss a video click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - To get on the waiting list for your very own ´Silver Chopper Ben´ sterling silver figurine click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/get-a-chopper-ben/ - To get your paperback or audio copy of The Big Silver Short go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ Find Arcadia Economics content on these sites: YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/user/ArcadiaEconomics Rumble - https://rumble.com/c/ArcadiaEconomics Bitchute - https://www.bitchute.com/channel/kgpeiwO1dhxX/ LBRY/Odysee - https://odysee.com/@ArcadiaEconomics:5 Listen to Arcadia Economics on your favorite Podcast platforms: Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/75OH2PpgUpriBA5mYf5kyY Apple - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/arcadia-economics/id1505398976 Google-https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9teXNvdW5kd2lzZS5jb20vcnNzLzE2MTg5NTk1MjMzNDVz Anchor - https://anchor.fm/arcadiaeconomics Amazon - https://podcasters.amazon.com/podcasts Follow Arcadia Economics on these social platforms Twitter - https://twitter.com/ArcadiaEconomic Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/arcadiaeconomics/ To see the evidence of manipulative behavior in the silver market (as well as how you can send it to your local regulators and Congressional representatives) click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/cftc-complaint/ - To sign the petition to ban JP Morgan from having any involvement in the silver industry click here: https://www.ipetitions.com/petition/ban-jp-morgan-from-trading-gold-and-silver #silver #silverprice And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD) This video was sponsored by Silver Viper Minerals, and Arcadia Economics does receive compensation. For our full disclaimer go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/disclaimer-silver-viper-minerals/Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

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2066: Government Debt and the Reverse Repo Facility & What It Means for You

Creating Wealth Real Estate Investing with Jason Hartman

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 18, 2023 25:02

Greetings again from Florianopolis, Brazil. Today, Jason encourages you to take advantage of his company's "Complete Solutions for Real Estate Investing" program. Then he and Joseph Brown finish up their conversation, exploring various economic factors, including housing and government borrowing. They touch on how housing is currently insulated from potential economic downturns due to low mortgage rates, particularly for the majority of homeowners with rates below 5%. This leads to an analysis of the inverted yield curve, traditionally seen as a recession predictor, but Joseph suggests it may not impact the housing market significantly. He explains that households are less likely to walk away from their homes and will prioritize other debts when facing financial difficulties. Furthermore, the gig economy and non-traditional employment options are becoming more prominent, making it easier for people to generate income, though the IRS is now actively tracking such income sources. Overall, the discussion emphasizes the resilience of the housing market in the face of broader economic challenges. Key Takeaways: 1:25 Take advantage of Jason Hartman's "Complete Solutions for Real Estate Investing" program Joe Brown interview Part 2 2:22 US residential mortgage charts 4:10 Chart: Housing production, units available vs. population 6:21 The 6 year millennial lag and shadow demand 9:25 Stepping into the housing market vs staying out of it 13:38 The Reverse Repo Facility 18:29 The inverted yield curve and the housing market 21:14 The jobs market and the gig economy Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class: Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com

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Interest Rate Squeeze to Drive Stocks & Bonds Lower with Andy Constan

WTFinance

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 30, 2023 34:41

Interview Recorded - 29th of August, 2023On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with Andy Constan, CEO & CIO of Damped Spring Advisor.During our conversation we spoke about Andy's thoughts on Jackson Hole, while higher interest rates will drive down both stocks and bonds, what this means for unemployment, what would change Andy's opinion and whether this could lead to further issues with banks. I hope you enjoy!0:00 - Introduction1:43 - Overview of Andy's thoughts and Jackson Hole8:35 - How is there a shortage of government debt?11:03 - Duration moving during uncertainty12:42 - Treasury raising funds14:09 - Reverse Repo continue to pick up slack moving forward?18:50 - Will employment slowly change or require a catalyst?20:40 - Could student payment re-introduction impact inflation?21:30 - Do individuals have to lose their job?23:04 - What would have to change to change Andy's perspective?25:14 - Parallels to 2008?27:25 - What will happen internationally?28:49 - Dollar to continue to strengthen?30:06 - Further issues in banks ?32:28 - One message to takeaway from our conversation?Andy has spent the past 35 years investing and trading global markets. Over the last 12 years, he has developed strong expertise in Macro investing working at Bridgewater Associates as an Idea Generator and most recently at Brevan Howard as Chief Strategist. Andy spent the first part of his career at Salomon Brothers and its successor companies. After 17 years at Salomon and as the Head of Global Equity Derivatives, Andy left and started two relative value hedge funds specializing in Multi-Asset Volatility Arbitrage and Capital Structure Arbitrage. Throughout his career, Andy has developed a keen cutting edge understanding of systematic quantitative research and investment while also deeply appreciating the importance of the insights that arise from discretionary investing strategies.Andy Constan - Twitter - https://twitter.com/dampedspringLinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/andyconstan/Website - https://dampedspring.com/WTFinance -Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes -https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Linkedin - https://www.linkedin.com/in/anthony-fatseas-761066103/Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Europe Market Open: Asian stocks traded mixed as disappointing Chinese activity data clouded over the PBoC's surprise rate cuts

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 15, 2023 2:49

US stocks were mostly positive with outperformance in the Nasdaq amid the advances in Nvidia after MS named the stock a top pick.APAC stocks traded mixed as participants digested key releases including disappointing Chinese activity data and the PBoC's surprise cuts to its 7-day Reverse Repo and 1-year MLF rates.European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4% after the cash market closed up by 0.2% yesterday.DXY remains above 103, USD/CNH advanced to 7.3121 post-MLF reduction, AUD leads the majors, EUR/USD sits just above 1.09.Highlights include, UK Unemployment, Swedish CPI, German & EZ ZEW, US Import & Export Prices, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Canadian CPI, Speech from Fed's Kashkari, Supply from UK & Germany.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

FedWatch 151 - The Perfect Asset

Bitcoin Magazine

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 7, 2023 60:57

Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles Guest host: Nolan Bauerle, @CountBTC Watch this Episode: YouTube || Rumble Fed Watch is a macro podcast with a clear contrarian thesis of a deflationary breakdown of the financial system leading to bitcoin adoption. We question narratives and schools of thought, and try to form new understanding. Each episode we use current events to question mainstream and bitcoin narratives across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies. Find all charts and links at bitcoinandmarkets.com/fed151 In this episode, Nolan and I discuss all the big news items of the week having to do with central banks and bitcoin. Larry Fink of Blackrock appeared on Fox Business and called Bitcoin and "international asset", said it is "digitizing gold", and call it "hope". He all the major Bitcoin narratives other than getting rid of trusted third-parties. It was kind of a sales pitch for his upcoming Bitcoin ETF, and seemed as if he is trying to box the SEC into a corner where they have to approve it. Nolan and I gave a status report of the Bitcoin ETFs and speculated on a new multipolar world. We are told the poles in this new world will be US, Russia, and China, but it is shaping up to be BRICS vs Davos vs Wall Street. We riff on that idea for a while. Next, we listen to a WEF spokesman being excited about CBDCs. His comments sound so dystopian that I don't know how any big money will willingly choose to use it. Nolan and I have slightly different opinions on this and we explore that. Up next, I outline the surprise reshuffle of leadership at the People's Bank of China. The Party Chief and Governor, who were both just reappointed at this year's Communist Party Congress are out, and the former Deputy Governor, Pan Gongsheng is in. Pan is known for his expertise in foreign exchange and his unwavering order following, with the Three Red Lines policy, tech and Bitcoin crackdowns, and more. We conclude that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is panicking over the crashing yuan. Lastly, I wanted to provide an update on the Reverse Repo total from the Federal Reserve. We tried to piece this together and figure out what is going on. What do you think? Thanks for joining us! If you are reading this, hit the like and subscribe button! Constant updates on bitcoin and macro Free weekly Bitcoin Fundamentals Report Ansel Lindner On Twitter Christian Keroles On Twitter Larry Fink interview CBDC speech from WEF Federal Reserve RRP article in FT Shake up at PBOC If you enjoy this content please LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE! Written by Ansel Lindner Find More and Follow Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2024 Nashville conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount! ⁠⁠https://b.tc/conference/2024⁠⁠ Use promo code: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store THIS EPISODE'S SPONSORS: River Bitcoin 2024 Nashville Bitcoin Magazine Bitcoin Magazine Pro Bitcoin Amsterdam

Lyn Alden | Bitcoin ETFs | EP 116

Swan Signal - A Bitcoin Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 6, 2023 61:27

On this week's episode of Swan Signal, Sam sat down with the brilliant Lyn Alden for a wide-ranging discussion. In the conversation, they discussed the current era of fiscal dominance, liquidity dynamics post-debt ceiling, Bitcoin ETFs, and why she is most interested in Bitcoin for long-term investment. Connect with: Lyn Alden: https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact Sam Callahan: https://twitter.com/samcallah Timestamps: 00:00:00 “Swan Signal” Intro 00:01:09 Introducing Lyn Alden 00:01:39 Nasdaq Performance and Thoughts on the Latest Equity Rally 00:04:27 Debt and Liquidity Dynamics 00:09:26 Correlation with Reverse-Repo and T-Bills 00:13:23 “Fiscal Dominance” 00:21:27 Measuring How the Economy is Doing 00:29:49 Thoughts on Latest Equity Rally 00:34:12 Energy and Oil Markets 00:40:38 “Bullish on Bitcoin” 00:46:30 Institutional Interest Coming to Bitcoin 00:50:43 BlackRock Bitcoin ETF 00:55:25 Elon Musk, Censorship on Twitter and Nostr 00:59:30 How to Connect with Lyn Alden 01:00:30 “Swan Signal” OutroConnect with Swan Bitcoin:

ChatGPT Investment Advice? | Too Much Money Causing 1m/3m T-bill Spread?

Broken Pie Chart

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 30, 2023 31:46

Derek Moore poses some investment questions to ChatGPT, is it helpful? Instances where ChatGPT is wrong. Then, looking at the bulk of Q1 2023 earnings releases and what we've learned. Were analysts too bearish? Finally, Derek delves into the below the surface aspects of 1 month T-Bills yields so much less than 2- and 3-month T-Bills. Even less than the Fed Funds rate. Derek's theory is with the increase in cash flowing to money markets, and levels of Overnight Reverse Repos not increasing, the Occam's Razor answer is too little availability of near cash T-bills. ChatGPT as an investment advisor? Asking ChatGPT for some investment questions Is ChatGPT correct on stuff? 1-month US Treasury Bills yield much less than 3-month US Treasury Bills How historic is the difference between 1-month yields and 3-month yields? What does it mean if anything when 1-month T bills yield less than Fed Funds? Overnight Reverse Repo market used by the Fed as alternatives to near money T-bills. Compare the Reverse Repo interest rate to 1-month treasuries. Were analysts too bearish on Q1 2023 earnings? How analysts change their estimates over time Money Market funds have the highest level of assets all the way back to 2007. 20–30-year-olds should focus on increasing balances Why 20–30-year-olds spend too much time on optimizing returns Mentioned in this Episode: Weird Bond Yield Stuff Happening | New 1 Day VIX Index? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/weird-bond-yield-stuff-happening-new-1-day-vix-index/id1432836154?i=1000610209621 Debt Ceiling Risk | Recession Signals | 10/3 Yield Curve Inversion Podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/debt-ceiling-risk-recession-signals-10-3-yield-curve/id1432836154?i=1000609174431 Can the Fed Fail? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/can-the-fed-fail-q1-winners-surprise-the-crowd/id1432836154?i=1000608060319 What are Reverse Repos and Repos? Fed usage of overnight reverse repos https://open.spotify.com/episode/09VOIffldtn3WxNm7rzyNx Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com

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MMM Episode 112: Red Week, Recession Metrics and the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility

Monday Morning Minutes

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 21, 2023 38:49

After reviewing a mostly down market week of April 17-21, except for bank loans, DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeffrey Mayberry and Samuel Lau take a look at the Federal Reserve's Overnight Reverse Repo Facility* at the behest of a listener (11:37), specifically, how does operating the facility benefit the Fed. Sam lays out how the facility supports the Fed's monetary policy and how the facility works to maintain the range of the Fed's effective federal funds rate. Sam also looks at whether the Fed could discontinue the facility, which he says right now would run counter to the Fed's goals (23:33). In their rundown of the week (2:29), Jeff and Sam report on a flat S&P 500, and a down week for fixed income (3:36), commodities (5:08) and Bitcoin (7:09). Over in Macro Land (7:25), they look at jobless claims, LEI data that says we are not headed toward a recession but are in one (8:37), and manufacturing and services PMI prints that were both expansionary for the first time since June (9:23) (and the stock market didn't care). In their roundup of Fedspeak (10:13), officials all pointed to tightening. Next week's data (30:49) will include home prices, the first GDP estimate, jobless claims and the PCE deflator. *For more on how the facility operates, check out MMM Ep. 18, “The Purpose of the Fed's Overnight Reverse Repo Facility”

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Bill Nelson on the Fed's Discount Window Lending, the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility, and the Shifting Size of the Fed's Balance Sheet

Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 10, 2023 54:12

Bill Nelson is a chief economist and executive vice president of the Bank Policy Institute and was previously a deputy director of the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Federal Reserve Board, where his responsibilities included monetary policy analysis, discount window policy analysis, and financial institution supervision. He also worked closely with the BIS working groups on the design of liquidity regulations and is a previous guest of the podcast. Bill rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the Fed's balance sheet, and in particular, the impact that the Fed's response to the recent banking turmoil has had on its size, as well as the role being played by the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility. David and Bill also discuss the changes in collateral treatment brought about by the banking crisis, the invocation of 13(3) for the Bank Term Funding Program, the recent volume of discount window lending, and a lot more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Bill's BPI profile BPI's Twitter: @bankpolicy David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here! Related Links: *Why is the Federal Reserve Abetting a Drain of Deposits from Banks?* by Bill Nelson and Greg Baer *I Don't Know Why She Swallowed a Fly* by Bill Nelson *The Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet: Costs to Taxpayers of Quantitative Easing* by Bill Nelson and Andy Levin

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Weekly Market Recap: Is There A Reverse Repo Crisis? How Concerned Do We Need To Be?

Wealthion

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 8, 2023 97:00

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and Wealthion host Adam Taggart discuss the ongoing surge in the Reverse Repo Market, the latest poor jobs data (job openings/JOLTS, ADP, initial & continuing claims), the recent OPEC oil production cut, recession risk, layoffs, and everything else that mattered to markets this week. ************************************************* At Wealthion, we show you how to protect and build your wealth by learning from the world's top experts on finance and money. Each week we add new videos that provide you with access to the foremost specialists in investing, economics, the stock market, real estate and personal finance. We offer exceptional interviews and explainer videos that dive deep into the trends driving today's markets, the economy, and your own net worth. We give you strategies for financial security, practical answers to questions like “how to grow my investments?”, and effective solutions for wealth building tailored to 'regular' investors just like you. There's no doubt that it's a very challenging time right now for the average investor. Above and beyond the recent economic impacts of COVID, the new era of record low interest rates, runaway US debt and US deficits, and trillions of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus stimulus has changed the rules of investing by dangerously distorting the Dow index, the S&P 500, and nearly all other asset prices. Can prices keep rising, or is there a painful reckoning ahead? Let us help you prepare your portfolio just in case the future brings one or more of the following: inflation, deflation, a bull market, a bear market, a market correction, a stock market crash, a real estate bubble, a real estate crash, an economic boom, a recession, a depression, or another global financial crisis. Put the wisdom from the money & markets experts we feature on Wealthion into action by scheduling a free consultation with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors, who will work with you to determine the right next steps for you to take in building your wealth. SCHEDULE YOUR FREE WEALTH CONSULTATION with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors here: ⁠https://www.wealthion.com/⁠ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: ⁠https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKMeK-HGHfUFFArZ91rzv5A?sub_confirmation=1⁠ Follow Adam on Twitter: ⁠https://twitter.com/menlobear⁠ Follow us on Facebook: ⁠https://www.facebook.com/Wealthion-109680281218040⁠ #fed #jobs #oil ************************************************* IMPORTANT NOTE: The information and opinions offered in this video by Wealthion or its interview guests are for educational purposes ONLY and should NOT be construed as personal financial advice. We strongly recommend that any potential decisions and actions you may take in your investment portfolio be conducted under the guidance and supervision of a quality professional financial advisor in good standing with the securities industry. When it comes to investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance. All investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.

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“Nightmare Scenario” For The Fed | Felix Jauvin

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Play Episode Listen Later Jan 5, 2023 64:37

Felix Jauvin, macro analyst at Reflexivity Research, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on liquidity, the Fed, and inflation. Jauvin argues that the liquidity that the Federal Reserve is removing from the financial system via quantitative tightening (QT) is being sterilized by the draining of the Fed's reverse repo facility (RRP) - in other words, the Federal Reserve is removing money with one hand and adding money back with another. Jauvin shares his outlook on assets such as bonds, stocks, commodities, the dollar, and crypto. Filmed on December 20, 2022. -- Follow Felix Jauvin on Twitter https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can't-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) Liquidity In 2023 (15:30) Reverse Repo & Treasury General Account (TGA) (20:59) What's Going To Break? (30:05) A "Nightmare Scenario" For Powell And The Fed (34:16) Pivot And Yield Curve Control (37:07) Views On Inflation (43:57) Commodities Outlook (48:57) Equities (56:03) Crypto -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Did the Fed Backdoor Bailout with Reverse Repo Start?

reverse backdoor bailout repo reverse repo

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 7, 2022 7:27

I've had a ton of you point out the recent drop in the reverse repo facility to me lately on Twitter, as we can see here. The reverse repo facility had a peak of about $2.4 trillion on September 30th, and it has significantly fallen off since then. On October 4th, sitting around 2.2 trillion. A lot of people have pointed out that that may be what is contributing to the drop in yields, the rise in asset prices over the last few days as well. I'm not so sure, we're going to dive into the detail. I don't think this is the reverse repo bailout that I've been predicting on this channel for a long time. I think that's still to come. Let's get into the details.

EP29(Part1)James Lavish On Institutional Appetite For Bitcoin, Shorting BTC, Yields, And Recession

Navigating Bitcoin's Noise

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 5, 2022 36:19

In this episode of Navigating Bitcoin's Noise, I am joined by James Lavish, a reformed hedge fund manager turned Bitcoin educator through The Looking Glass Education. In our discussion, we talk about big institutions and their appetite for Bitcoin, why and how hedge funds are using Bitcoin to hedge high beta stocks, and the unfortunate downside of the existing system incentivizing profit over people. James also shares his knowledge of repo markets, bond yields, and what they really tell you, along with his views on the possibilities of a recession. Additionally, we cover why Bitcoin offers citizens and small countries an opportunity to opt out of historically bad financial situations.If you're looking to better understand bitcoin's past and its future potential as an economic network, then join us and listen in.Kane McGukinTwitter: https://twitter.com/kanemcgukinkanemcgukin.substack.comJames LavishTwitter: https://twitter.com/jameslavishhttps://substack.com/profile/14066787-james-lavishhttps://lookingglasseducation.com/Repo and Reverse Repo: https://lookingglasseducation.com/repos-reverse-repos-and-the-mystery-of-the-overnight-lending-market/

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EP29(Part2)James Lavish On Institutional Appetite For Bitcoin, Shorting BTC, Yields, And Recession

Navigating Bitcoin's Noise

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 5, 2022 40:03

In this episode of Navigating Bitcoin's Noise, I am joined by James Lavish, a reformed hedge fund manager turned Bitcoin educator through The Looking Glass Education. In our discussion, we talk about big institutions and their appetite for Bitcoin, why and how hedge funds are using Bitcoin to hedge high beta stocks, and the unfortunate downside of the existing system incentivizing profit over people. James also shares his knowledge of repo markets, bond yields, and what they really tell you, along with his views on the possibilities of a recession. Additionally, we cover why Bitcoin offers citizens and small countries an opportunity to opt out of historically bad financial situations.If you're looking to better understand bitcoin's past and its future potential as an economic network, then join us and listen in.Kane McGukinTwitter: https://twitter.com/kanemcgukinkanemcgukin.substack.comJames LavishTwitter: https://twitter.com/jameslavishhttps://substack.com/profile/14066787-james-lavishhttps://lookingglasseducation.com/Repo and Reverse Repo: https://lookingglasseducation.com/repos-reverse-repos-and-the-mystery-of-the-overnight-lending-market/

Banks Are Getting a Free $100 Million Every Day From Reverse Repo?

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 8, 2022 13:00

Today we're talking about the Reverse Repo Facility again, I've been getting a ton of DMs and comments from people about this recent article from Zero Hedge. They're saying that the Fed is quietly handing out a $250 million dollars to a handful of recipients that are very happy because they're getting a ton of money, risk free, from the Fed to park their cash in the Repo Facility. So stay tuned because I am going to explain what is going on.

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Joseph Wang (Reverse Repo Deep Dive…Why Is It Exploding Higher?)

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 17, 2022 58:56

Check out Chris at my live investment conference, Rebel Capitalist Live, June 24-26 at https://www.rebelcapitalistlive.com

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News: The Reverse Repo Canary In The Coal Mine

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 8, 2022 22:50

Check out the Rebel Capitalist Live event June 24th - 26th!! https://rebelcapitalistlive.com

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Reverse Repo $2 Trillion For First Time Ever

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Play Episode Listen Later Jun 3, 2022 14:08

The reverse repo facility at the Fed just broke over $2 trillion, an all time record. What is the reverse repo facility, and how is it different than the regular repo facility? Finally, what does this mean for everyone and the economy?

#140: Explaining the Growth of the Fed's Reverse Repo Facility

Talking Data

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 2, 2022 17:15

Welcome to the latest edition of Talking Data. Our Talking Data series seeks to offer timely insights into macro market themes along with macro data and its impact on the economy and markets. I am your host Kristen Radosh of Arbor Research and Trading. Our commentator today is Jim Bianco of Bianco Research. Today Jim explains the growth of the Fed's reverse repo facility. • How big is it? • Who uses it? • What's next? Thank you for joining us today. We are client driven, if you have any questions or feedback on future topics, please let us know. For further information on Arbor Research, Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science, please contact Gus Handler at gus.handler@arborresearch.com.

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Spotlight: The Fight Against Inflation: Has The Federal Reserve Lost Control?

Steve Forbes: What's Ahead

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 15, 2022 3:17

When it comes to inflation, the Federal Reserve and the White House are like firefighters who don't know how to fight fires, which is terrible news for the economy and investors. Has the Federal Reserve lost control of the fight against inflation? Steve Forbes on why the principal inflation fighters are floundering and on how they could end up engineering a recession if they aren't careful.Steve Forbes shares his What's Ahead Spotlights each Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.

Will RBI go for a hike in reverse repo rate?

Business Standard Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 7, 2022 6:14

Market participants have said that the huge borrowing programme announced by the government in the Union Budget may prompt the central bank to hike the reverse repo rate. The government announced a gross borrowing of Rs 14.1 trillion for the next financial year. Let us understand why the RBI may go for a hike in the reverse repo rate and not the repo rate. The RBI adopted an ultra-loose monetary policy after the pandemic broke out. In order to inject liquidity into the system to spur growth it slashed the repo rate to record low of 4%. The rate has been held at that level since May 2020. Repo rate is the rate the RBI charges when it lends money to banks for the short term. A cut in the repo rate results in commercial banks lowering interest rates, in turn encouraging businesses to borrow at low rates. At the same time, what depositors receive on their savings and fixed deposits would also fall. This is meant to motivate the public to increase consumption. Meanwhile, the reverse repo rate is the rate that the RBI pays banks when they park their excess liquidity with it. The rate has remained unchanged at 3.35% since May 2020 after a sharp reduction of 155 basis points that year. The lower reverse repo rate acts as a disincentive for banks to keep their surplus money with RBI, pushing them to give out loans. During normal times, the gap between the two key rates, which is also known as the policy corridor, is 25 basis points. This gap was widened by the central bank to 65 basis points after the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. The RBI is widely expected to start policy rate normalisation and bring down the gap back to 25 basis points. It is looking to absorb the excess liquidity in the market as concerns over the Omicron variant wane. India's daily Covid cases have fallen from a high of 3.48 lakh on January 21 to 1.49 lakh on Friday. The move will also rein in inflationary pressures in the economy. Retail inflation, which is the yardstick for the RBI policy making, hit a five-month high of 5.59% in December. The central bank has a target of 4% inflation, with a variation of 2% on both sides. Global cues will also influence RBI's decisions. The Bank of England on Thursday raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage point to 0.5% to contain spiralling inflation while the US Federal Reserve signalled a first rate hike in March. Most analysts expect the RBI to hike reverse repo rate by as much as 40 bps on Wednesday before starting to raise the repo rate from April. RBI's normalisation drive will, however, lead to higher interest rates in the economy. Banks will pass on any hike in repo rate by increasing interest rates on loans. On the back of RBI's accommodative monetary policy, home loan rates had fallen to multi-year lows in the past two years with some leading lender offering home loans starting at 6.75.

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Bill Holter: The Fed Must Inflate or Die

Palisade Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 10, 2022 31:11

Tom welcomes back an absolute icon to the show, Bill Holter. Bill works and writes alongside the legendary Jim Sinclair at JSMineset. Bill discusses the current liquidity situation with the Reverse Repo system. Banks can sleep at night with their funds being stored with the Fed while earning a return. However, the Fed can't allow interest rates to go negatives since that would indicate the dollar is worthless. JP Morgan has a large derivative concentration which carries 3.3 trillion in counterparty risk. Globally, everything is a promise today as the world runs entirely on credit. Small failures can cascade like dominoes. The Fed can't truly taper and should they try we will see the next round of Q.E. within a few weeks. The Fed will likely attempt a small rate hike but multiple hikes seem unlikely. The situation today is completely different than when Paul Volcker raised rates in the 80s. We're far more in debt than back then and the U.S. had plenty of collateral at that time. In today's world, there is massive leverage and every available asset is already encumbered. Eventually, excessive money printing will completely dilute the currency and we already see that occurring with inflation. The Fed is completely out of means to limit inflation. Many countries are abandoning the dollar as quickly as possible. He notes that more people are wanting to get their dollars out of the system and into gold. It's almost like a mini bank run. Inflation is causing part of this run but people are beginning to understand that something is very very wrong. People become concerned with inflation when everyday items and taxes rise quickly. We're now a full year into fairly drastic price rises. Many narratives are failing including transitory inflation and those around vaccines. Comex's open interest has been declining and there appears to be less interest in futures. There are increasing numbers of deliveries. The numbers don't add up. If you understand that all the news is fake and that basically everything is a lie then why would you believe any of the numbers? Soon people are going to count their wealth in ounces not dollars. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:36 - Credit Markets & Repos2:06 - U.S. and Negative Rates3:02 - J.P. Morgan Derivatives5:42 - Taper Expectations8:20 - Volcker Vs. Today11:45 - Inflation and Fed Tools13:10 - Getting Out of the System15:53 - Inflation Perceptions18:04 - Actuarial Deaths19:24 - Credit & Confidence23:56 - Comex Open Interest28:05 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Reverse Repos and contagion risks with derivatives.Fed cornered and unable to respond to inflation.Comex deliveries continue with open interest in decline.Governments are losing control of their fake narratives. Guest Links:Facebook: https://facebook.com/groups/jsmineset/Website: https://www.jsmineset.comEmail: bholter@hotmail.com Bill Holter writes and is partners with Jim Sinclair at the newly formed Holter/Sinclair collaboration. Prior, he wrote for Miles Franklin from 2012-15. Bill worked as a retail stockbroker for 23 years, including 12 as a branch manager at A.G. Edwards. He left Wall Street in late 2006 to avoid potential liabilities related to the management of paper assets as he foresaw the Great Financial crisis coming. In retirement, he and his family moved to Costa Rica, where he lived until 2011 when he moved back to the United States. He was a well-known contributor to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) commentaries from 2007-present. Bill has retained a working relationship with Miles Franklin and can help with your precious metals needs, including transacting, shipping, storage, and even safe deposit boxes in non-bank vault facilities. Feel free to contact him with any of your questions or needs.

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Lee Adler: We are on the Eve of Destruction

Palisade Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 5, 2022 47:37

Tom welcomes a new guest Lee Adler to discuss how the Fed operates. The Fed creates money via their primary dealers which include banks in the U.S., Europe, and Canada. The dealers directly invest in the markets with the money they get from the Fed. This is why M1 and M2 metrics aren't that meaningful. Permanent open market operations are just a different name for quantitative easing. Markets respond directly to Q.E. purchases as he demonstrates with a detailed chart. When Q.E. stops markets fall until the Fed is forced to re-intervene. Reverse Repos are also available to banks and money market funds. Lee explains the purpose of the Reverse Repo program and the excess liquidity it creates. Now that Congress lifted the debt ceiling the Fed will want to rebuild its cash balance and likely resume selling new debt. There will be an increase in treasury yields and markets will tighten but it won't happen until the slush fund is gone. This market top will be a slowly rounding one that will take many months. He says, "The Fed's history has been a series of long-term serial blunders. The next mistake is required by the last mistake and each one gets larger… at some point, we reach a critical mass where it can't be rescued." It's going to be very difficult to rein in inflation. If gold can pop through resistance near these levels it will be very good for the miners. However, if it doesn't hold then we could see lower prices. So use caution. He notes that we are very close to the top in equities and it's getting risky. Whatever you do, don't fight the Fed and don't fight the trend. Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction1:21 – M1 & M2 Money Supply5:55 - Chart & Q.E. Correlation9:46 - The Primary Dealers12:42 - Reverse Repo Program18:35 - Eve of Destruction24:27 - Fed & Treasuries27:09 - Melt Up?28:15 - Fed & the next Q.E.33:40 - Transitory or Crash39:35 - Gold & Mitigating Risk42:55 - News is Noise46:08 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode How the Fed creates money through primary dealers.Purpose of Reverse Repos.Overall direction for yields and the markets.Outlook for gold and protecting your wealth in this environment. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/lee_adlerWebsite: https://liquiditytrader.comArticles: https://wallstreetexaminer.com/Articles: https://capitalstool.com Lee Adler is published on LiquidityTrader.com, The Wall Street Examiner, and Capitalstool. He also published and was the lead analyst for Sure Money Investor and developed David Stockman's Contra Corner. He has been in finance since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner Lee was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years and specialized in the analysis of failed properties. He also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. Lee has been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since he was a teenager. Yogi Berra said, "You can observe a lot by watching. I've seen a lot through the years, and have incorporated much of it into my research." He says, "I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you."

Reverse Repo to Tank Now with Debt Ceiling Increase

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Play Episode Listen Later Dec 15, 2021 16:47

The Reverse Repo Facility at the Federal Reserve has blown up to astronomical levels over the last six months as the scramble for collateral has left banks with excess cash. But now, the debt ceiling increase will allow the Federal Government to issue debt once again, increasing the collateral in the system. The Fed should push money back out of reverse repo to help sustain demand for treasuries despite high inflation. Get Your FREE $100 of Bitcoin: https://itrust.capital/heresy

News: Joseph Wang Live (TGA, Reverse Repo, QE Deep Dive)

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Play Episode Listen Later Dec 13, 2021 40:56

Check out the Rebel Capitalist Live event Jan 7th - 9th!! https://rebelcapitalistlive.com

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The Treasure Maps

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 5, 2021 65:16

reverse repo เพราะเงินล้น --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/treasuremaps/message

Spotlight: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Reappointed: Is Inflation Set To Increase in 2022?

Steve Forbes: What's Ahead

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 23, 2021 3:17

Markets are applauding President Biden's reappointment of Jerome Powell to head the Federal Reserve, but don't break out the champagne yet. Steve Forbes on the Fed's money-printing gimmicks that started well before COVID-19 and on why more inflation will likely be coming in 2022 and 2023.Steve Forbes shares his What's Ahead Spotlights each Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.

Crypto Regulation | Bitcoin and Ethereum are Under Threat | with Clem Chambers

Investors Hub - Market Vision

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 27, 2021 17:48

Coinbase is working hard to be a part of future crypto regulation from the SEC. We chat with ADVFN CEO Clem Chambers about his thoughts on how regulation will affect crypto. Plus, inflation from all the economic stimulus will likely do a bit of damage to the Stablecoin system as well 0:00 Intro with Disclaimer 1:00 Crypto Regulation 10:58 How will Inflation affect Stablecoins? 13:54 Reverse Repo and Inflation !We produce videos and content to share the perspective of different investors. No video we produce is designed to be direct investing advice, and the investing opinions of our guests are their own. Invest at your own risk. Do your due diligence. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app

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Weekly Briefing #71 & Reverse Repo, Just a Ripple in the Pond or Something More (Aug. 17, 2021)

360 One Firm (361Firm) - Interviews & Events

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 18, 2021 59:16

Weekly Briefing #71 & Reverse Repo, Just a Ripple in the Pond or Something More (Aug. 17, 2021)

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TGA Drawdown, July Tax Record, Reverse Repo and Debt Ceiling

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Play Episode Listen Later Aug 14, 2021 11:36

The Treasury General Account has finally gotten back down to its pre-covid levels, which is where the treasury had targeted at the beginning of the year. The problem is the Federal Government cannot issue any new debt until the debt ceiling is either suspended or raised, and so the TGA may go all the way to zero. But record tax inflows are assisting with delaying this, potentially longer than expected.

What is REPO and Reverse REPO?

Sabse Bada Rupaiya

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 10, 2021 2:52

आज सबसे बड़ा रुपईय्या के एपिसोड में उपकार जोशी बताएँगे कि क्या होता है REPO और Reverse REPO? ये वो दो मशहूर शब्द हैं जो हमने कई बार सुने होंगे। ज़रूरत पड़ने पर जब RBI दूसरे बैंकों को पैसा उधार देता है, तो ये transaction एक contract के द्वारा होता है। इसे ही कहते हैं REPO. इसका fullform होता है Repurchase Agreement. क्या होता है Reverse REPO rate , ये जानने के लिए एपिसोड सुनना होगा। तो सुनिए आज का सबसे बड़ा रुपईय्या, सिर्फ ABP Live Podcasts पर

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What is REPO and Reverse REPO?

Sabse Bada Rupaiya

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 10, 2021 2:52

आज सबसे बड़ा रुपईय्या के एपिसोड में उपकार जोशी बताएँगे कि क्या होता है REPO और Reverse REPO? ये वो दो मशहूर शब्द हैं जो हमने कई बार सुने होंगे। ज़रूरत पड़ने पर जब RBI दूसरे बैंकों को पैसा उधार देता है, तो ये transaction एक contract के द्वारा होता है। इसे ही कहते हैं REPO. इसका fullform होता है Repurchase Agreement. क्या होता है Reverse REPO rate , ये जानने के लिए एपिसोड सुनना होगा। तो सुनिए आज का सबसे बड़ा रुपईय्या, सिर्फ ABP Live Podcasts पर

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Fed Insider (Monetary System Deep Dive, Reverse Repo Demystified, Dollar Secrets Revealed)

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Play Episode Listen Later Aug 9, 2021 74:40

✅ LYN ALDEN and I discuss portfolio that will HELP YOU profit from DOLLAR losing reserve currency status, click this link to check it out!!

$1 Trillion Dollars in Over Night Reverse Repo Market. What does it mean?

The Greg Dickerson Show

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 7, 2021 11:29

Whenever you're ready here's how I can help you… Courses https://www.dickersoninternational.com/courses One on one Coaching https://www.dickersoninternational.com/coaching Subscribe to my YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/user/agregdickerson/?sub_confirmation=1 Subscribe to my Podcast: https://www.dickersoninternational.com/podcast ----- Greg is a serial entrepreneur, real estate developer, coach, and mentor. He has bought, developed and sold over $250 million in real estate, built and renovated hundreds of custom homes and commercial buildings, developed residential and mixed-use subdivisions and started 12 different companies from the ground up. Greg currently mentors some of the top entrepreneurs, real estate investors and real estate developers in the country helping them grow and scale their business, raise more capital and do bigger deals. Greg's current clients have over $2 billion in AUM and deals in the process. ------ Follow and reach out to me on: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thegregdickerson Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/pg/thegregdickerson Twitter: https://twitter.com/agregdickerson LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/agregdickerson Website: https://www.dickersoninternational.com ------ #realestate #realestateinvesting #realestatedevelopment #houseflipping #biggerpockets #apartmentsyndication #realestatesyndication #entrepreneurship #realestatedeveloper #realestatedevelopervsinvestor #landdevelopment #howtobeanentrepreneur #howtobuyabusiness #howtostartabusiness #landflipping #howtoflipland #Commercialrealestateinvesting #BusinessCoaching #EntrepreneurshipCoaching #BusinessMentorship #Leadershipcoaching #businesscoach #businessaquisitons #businessbuying #cryptocurrency #bitcoin #dogecoin #ethereum #shiba #blockchain #crypto #investing #bitcoinprice #ethereumprice #dogecoinprice #ether ----- This channel is all about Entrepreneurship, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Development and Cryptocurrency and Bitcoin Investing: How to invest in real estate, how to develop real estate, how to flip houses, how to flip land, how to develop land, how to become a real estate developer, how to wholesale houses, how to flip houses, how to invest in commercial property, how to invest in commercial real estate, how to buy apartment building, how to buy commercial property, real estate investing courses, real estate investing career, how to raise capital, how to find private investors, how to fund real estate deals, how to invest in cryptocurrency, how to invest in bitcoin, how to buy bitcoin, how to buy dogecoin, how to buy ethereum, what is blockchian --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/greg-dickerson/support

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Jeff Snider (Reverse Repo Deep Dive, Mind Blowing Intel On Shadow Banking Risks, Why Zoltan's Wrong)