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10 episodes with july cpi
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3 episodes with july cpi
3 episodes with july cpi
3 episodes with july cpi
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2 episodes with july cpi
2 episodes with july cpi
US Treasury yields drop as attention turns to PCE inflation data tonight. RBA August meeting minutes lean to the hawkish side. Australia's July CPI inflation today will be watched for any upside surprise. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari reviews how Gold has been tracking as US rate hike expectations change, fiscal concerns rise and the Middle East conflict continues. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Strong Market Breadth The market typically begins to experience greater volatility around this point in midterm election years. However, one encouraging development is the strength and breadth of current market momentum. The S&P 500 continues to show broad participation, with the highest percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day technical moving average since 2024. Currently, approximately 74% of stocks are above their 200-day moving average. Broad participation like this is generally a positive sign for the overall health of the market. The internal momentum of the S&P 500 is also strengthening. Nine of the 11 sectors are showing better momentum than they were on June 22, with only energy and utilities showing weaker momentum. Taken together, these indicators point to a market with strong underlying momentum. While volatility can increase as the midterm elections approach, the current breadth of participation provides an encouraging foundation. For now, momentum is our friend. Inflation Continues to Evolve The latest Consumer Price Index, or CPI, provided some encouraging news on the inflation front. July CPI increased 0.1%, in line with expectations, bringing the year-over-year increase to approximately 3.5%. The fact that inflation did not come in higher than expected is important. While inflation remains elevated, the latest reading does not suggest that prices are accelerating rapidly. For investors and consumers, however, the headline CPI number is only part of the story. Two important questions are what the Federal Reserve makes of the data and how inflation is affecting people in their everyday lives. The outlook for Federal Reserve policy has shifted as inflation data has evolved. At one point, markets were pricing in roughly a 50% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's September 16 meeting. Those odds rose to approximately 52% about a week ago but have since fallen to around 30%. Current expectations suggest that there may be one rate hike toward the end of the year, although there is still significant time for the outlook to change. Another useful measure is the “Common Man's CPI,” a proprietary index from Strategas that focuses on essential expenses, including food, energy, shelter, insurance, and children's clothing. These are expenses consumers generally cannot avoid or easily postpone. The Common Man's CPI increased 3.5% year-over-year in July, down from 3.7% in June and 4.6% in May. That deceleration is encouraging, but the longer-term impact of inflation remains significant. Since the middle of 2020, the Common Man's CPI has increased approximately 32%, while wages have risen about 28%. That gap helps explain why many consumers continue to feel the effects of inflation even as the rate of price increases slows. Prices may be rising more slowly, but wages have not yet fully caught up with the cumulative increase in the cost of essential goods and services. The trajectory of both inflation and wages will remain important as the year progresses. The Fed's Other Inflation Tool The Federal Reserve has several tools available to influence the economy, but two of the most important are interest rates and the Fed's balance sheet. Interest rates influence economic activity by making borrowing more or less expensive. The balance sheet works differently. When the Fed adds money to the financial system, it can support economic growth. When it reduces the amount of money in the system, it can help restrain growth and inflation. This second tool receives considerably less attention because its effects are less visible to consumers. Interest rates are relatively easy to understand because they directly affect mortgages, savings accounts, credit cards, and other forms of borrowing. The balance sheet is much less tangible. Earlier this year, the Federal Reserve was expanding its balance sheet through a process referred to as monthly net reserve management. The terminology is intentional because quantitative easing, or QE, has developed a negative association following the significant monetary stimulus implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic. Through net reserve management, the Fed injects capital into the banking system by purchasing Treasury securities from banks and replacing those securities with cash. Maintaining sufficient liquidity in the banking system is important, particularly during periods when large amounts of money are flowing out of the system for purposes such as tax payments. Beginning in December, the Fed was injecting approximately $40 billion per month into the banking system. That pace subsequently began to taper as leadership at the Federal Reserve changed. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has written extensively about the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and the importance of eventually reducing it. One concern with simultaneously raising interest rates while expanding the balance sheet is that the two policies can work against one another. Higher rates are intended to slow economic activity, while an expanding balance sheet can add liquidity to the financial system. Under the current approach, the Federal Reserve has moved toward stopping the expansion of its balance sheet before relying more heavily on interest-rate increases. August marks the first month since the beginning of the year in which the balance sheet is not expected to expand. The implications could be important for consumers and the broader economy. Consider a simple example. If a consumer earns $100 per week and spends $50 on gasoline and $50 on groceries, an increase in gasoline prices to $60 would leave only $40 available for groceries. Unless the consumer has additional money to spend, higher costs in one area can lead to reduced spending elsewhere. Economists refer to this as demand destruction. For broad-based inflation to persist across the economy, there generally needs to be enough money available to sustain demand even as prices rise. If the money supply increases, a consumer who previously had $100 to spend might instead have $110, allowing spending to continue despite higher prices. That dynamic has been evident in recent economic data. As gasoline prices increased, spending in areas such as leisure and hospitality and retail sales remained surprisingly resilient. Ordinarily, higher gasoline costs might be expected to reduce spending elsewhere, but that demand destruction has been limited. One possible explanation is the additional liquidity that has been present in the financial system. August provides an important test. For the first time this year, the economy is facing higher energy prices without the same additional expansion of the Fed's balance sheet. That creates an opportunity to observe whether demand begins to weaken in other areas of the economy. How that dynamic develops could have meaningful implications for economic growth, inflation, and ultimately the stock market. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Momentum is our Friend first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Markets moved higher this week as inflation data came in largely in line with expectations and concerns about additional Federal Reserve tightening eased. The panel discusses July CPI, stable labor market trends, and softer retail sales, while noting that inflation remains above target. The conversation also examines shifting expectations for the September FOMC meeting, the outlook for interest rates, and why equities continue to reach new highs despite seasonal headwinds. The episode closes with a discussion on diversification, balancing equity opportunities with attractive bond yields, and maintaining discipline as investor sentiment improves. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 02:30 — July inflation data and market reaction08:20 — Fed outlook and September meeting expectations13:00 — Jackson Hole and signals from policymakers15:05 — New market highs, breadth, and volatility trends22:20 — Bonds, diversification, and portfolio positioning Additional ResourcesRead: Key Questions: Are More ETFs Really Better for Investors?Read: Natural Disasters – A Financial Guide for Mitigation to Preparedness to Recovery Key QuestionsWeekly Investment BriefSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterFollow us on LinkedIn
A record $432B July deficit, $40 trillion in debt days away, gold above $4,400... last week's fireworks were just the opening act.This episode is sponsored by Odoo. Sign up for free at https://www.odoo.com/r/peterThis episode is also sponsored by Pebl. Go to https://hipebl.ai to get a free estimate.This episode is also sponsored by Rockwell Automation. Download their 11th Annual State of Smart Manufacturing Report at https://rok.auto/sosmThe CPI came in tame. Hours later the Treasury reported a $432 billion July deficit... the worst single month in US history.Peter breaks down why the benign 0.1% July CPI is an accounting illusion: the BLS compares monthly averages, so June's oil collapse masked July's crude rebound, and August is set up to run hot. The real inflation news came later that day from the Treasury: a record $432 billion July deficit, $1.8 trillion in just ten months, and a national debt now less than $150 billion from $40 trillion. Bigger deficits mean more pressure on the Fed to choose inflation, which is exactly why the bond market refused to rally on the "good" CPI number.Gold holds above $4,400 and silver above $65 as heavy Asian buying signals the de-dollarization trade is back on, while Bitcoin sits dead at $63,500 and misses the entire rally. Peter also covers the yen back above 159 and the Fed's swap-line backdoor QE for Japan, both parties drifting left after the latest primaries, Trump family corruption from Truth Social premium access to Barron's $150 million, and the Iran endgame: no deal, a closed Strait of Hormuz, and a president claiming victory in a war America clearly lost.Chapters:00:00 Inflation Signals Not Prices01:22 CPI Print And Market Bets04:24 CPI Math Masks Energy Surge10:37 Deficits The Real Inflation Driver19:54 Gold Surge Debt And Yen QE31:09 Radical Left Wins Primaries32:00 Both Parties Shift Left34:17 Trump Corruption Claims37:51 Bitcoin Stalls vs Gold44:13 Iran War Reality CheckFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Blinds.com and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.blinds.com* Check out Chilipad and use my code GOLD for $255 off: https://sleep.me* Check out Factor and use my code gold50off for a great deal: https://www.factor75.com* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/GOLD for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
July CPI data was tame, but PPI this morning provides a look at wholesale prices. Results could affect yields after Fed rate hike odds fell Wednesday. Retail sales are due Friday. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for their own particular situation before making any investment or trading decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. For illustrative purposes only. Individual situations will vary. Not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Investing involves risk, including, for some products, more than your initial investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions. The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed-income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument. Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here. Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research. The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC. Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB. (0131-0826) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
David Crowley beat Francesca Hong by half a point. Peggy Flanagan won Minnesota by 20. Same night, opposite answers about where the party is going.Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley took the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary over democratic socialist state Rep. Francesca Hong in a nail biter that broke past 2 a.m. Brian had been telling anyone who would listen that Crowley was winning while prediction markets had Hong at 96 percent, and he takes the victory lap. His read on why: no AOC, no Bernie, no Warren, no signature policy that broke through, and a cancel Thanksgiving clip nobody could unsee. Glennis brings in the other variable, Megan Romer, one of the DSA's two national chairs, whose New Yorker Radio Hour sit down with David Remnick got clipped into oblivion days before Wisconsin voted. Also: five of nine Milwaukee flash drives showed up at central count carrying audit logs instead of results, and Steve Kornacki had to fill 90 minutes of live NBC air with nothing.Then the rest of the board. Peggy Flanagan beat Angie Craig by roughly 20 points in Minnesota, and Brian argues that race teaches 2028 more than Wisconsin does. Luke Bronin ended John Larson's 28 year run in Connecticut's 1st, the seventh House incumbent to lose after actually running, five of them over 70. South Carolina's special Senate primary heads to an August 25 runoff between Rep. Ralph Norman and appointed Sen. Darline Graham. Mike Lindell lost Minnesota's Republican gubernatorial primary to House Speaker Lisa Demuth and would not concede. David Crowley is your Oath Candidate of the Week, and he is starting from zero with a general election against Rep. Tom Tiffany in November.Plus AOC telling Jonathan Karl on ABC's This Week that "Woke 1 was crazy," and the real question underneath it: can somebody who was loud during Woke 1 be the 2028 nominee? Brian says the jury is out. Glennis says yes and names her candidate. Then the economy, where July CPI landed at 3.4 percent, the July jobs report came in at negative 23,000 against expectations near 85,000 with another 103,000 knocked off May and June, and workers' share of national income sits at its lowest point since tracking began in 1947. Also this week for Clickbait or Double-Click: Trump slipping off Air Force One into an airport catering truck in Ankara while the press flew the decoy, Mamdani backing Tiffany Cabán's Delivery Protection Act to force Amazon to directly employ its delivery drivers, and the New York Times piece on Flock cameras that has liberals and conservatives mad at the same thing.Then a Good Vibe Goodbye where a guy on the Brooklyn Museum steps asks Mamdani to find him a date and the mayor's office answers with a borough by borough summer guide for anyone looking for cheap and cheerful dates in NYC.UPDATE: This episode was recorded Wednesday morning, August 12, 2026, while Wisconsin votes were still being counted. Since recording, the Associated Press and Decision Desk HQ officially called the race for David Crowley, who secured the nomination with 39.8% of the vote compared to Francesca Hong's 39.4%.New episodes of Vibes Only are available for download first thing every Thursday morning! Hit that FOLLOW and we'll keep you informed for the midterms.EPISODE RESOURCES/LINKSThe Oath Candidate of the Week: David Crowley for WIPrimary Results - The New York TimesHow Socialist Is the D.S.A.? Megan Romer Explains | The New Yorker Radio HourAnything is Possible: AOC on Political FutureIran Insists Strait Will Stay Closed Until U.S. Agrees to Demands - The New York TimesLabor Market Shifts Into Reverse as Employers Balk at Hiring - The New York TimesTrump Said to Have Secretly Used Military Jet to Leave Turkey Amid Threats From Iran - The New York TimesFight Brews Between Mamdani and Amazon Over Delivery Workers - The New York TimesFlock Cameras Can Track Every Car in America. Police Love Them. Citizens Don't. - The New York TimesFix This Mamdani - InstagramSend us a text!Watch us on YoutubeFollow us on Instagram Oh, we're on TikTok tooFollow Brian on IG Follow Glennis on IG
On Wednesday, August 12, Brian Szytel reports a quiet, mixed market day as July CPI came in essentially in line with expectations, leaving stocks and bonds little changed (Dow flat, S&P up 0.25%, Nasdaq up 0.5%, 10-year unchanged). Headline CPI rose 0.1% month over month to 3.4% year over year, while core CPI rose 0.2%, with medical care, airfares, used vehicles, and shelter contributing. Fed September hike odds fell from about 50% to 42% ahead of upcoming PPI data and Jackson Hole. He notes inflation is moving in the right direction slowly, while employment signals are mixed (unemployment 4.1%, weaker JOLTS and slightly missed nonfarm gains). Addressing a question on baby boomers supporting children, he says wealth transfers are not money creation and are a “closed loop,” though lower labor force participation and skills could hurt productivity. 00:00 Market Recap 00:33 CPI Breakdown 01:43 Fed Outlook Ahead 02:30 Jobs And Softening Data 03:01 Boomer Wealth Question 04:07 Is It Inflationary 05:05 Wrap Up From Florida Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer, and David Faber started the hour by breaking down this morning's inflation print, with CPI rising 0.1% in July and the annual inflation rate coming in at 3.4%. The desk then brought in CoreWeave CEO Mike Intrator to discuss his company's strong Q2 results, which sent the stock surging by double digits at the open. Also in AI, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk outlined how AI revenue within the company will exceed all other sources of revenue before year-end. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Today's crypto market is quiet, but it is not calm in a healthy way. Bitcoin is sitting around $64K ahead of the July CPI report, with perpetual trading activity at its lowest level since 2023 and volatility still compressed. The market is waiting for a macro catalyst, but underneath the surface, traders are cautious, altcoins are fragile, and sell pressure from public miners remains a real issue.The biggest security story is Harmony. The project confirmed an exploit where an attacker minted roughly 4 billion ONE tokens, equal to more than a quarter of the supply. ONE fell around 40%, exchanges were asked to freeze funds, and Harmony is now looking at emergency fixes and possible rollback options. That is not just a hack. That is a monetary-integrity failure.On the institutional side, Fidelity is moving to add staking and quarterly cash payouts to its nearly $900 million Ether ETF. That is a major step toward yield-bearing Ethereum ETFs. At the same time, public Bitcoin miners have sold about 28,000 BTC this year, worth roughly $1.78 billion, adding another layer of selling pressure to the market.Regulation is also busy. Russia wants retail crypto trading limited to Bitcoin, Ether, and USDT. The Bank of England is testing how stablecoins and a potential digital pound could work together in trade finance. The CFTC is fighting New York to keep Kalshi operating, while FlightAware dropped its separate lawsuit against Kalshi after just one day.The core theme today: Bitcoin is stuck in hibernation, but the rest of crypto is not quiet. Exploits, regulation, tokenized finance, Ethereum staking, and AI competition are all moving while BTC waits for CPI. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
US equities were mostly higher in Wednesday trading, though ended a bit off best levels. Upside tabbed to a couple factors, including in line July CPI that helped keep yields down for the day
Charles Schwab's Adam Lynch returns to this week's Crypto Corner to address what the July CPI report means for cryptocurrencies. He dials back on his previous comment that the "Clarity Act is pretty much dead" as rumblings in Congress start to signal otherwise. Adam then turns to his latest technical analysis on Bitcoin and Ethereum. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news we are facing a new burst in inflation as commodity prices rise, oil and gold both are rising, and benchmark interest rates are stuck high waiting to see where these tea leaves settle. Locally this week we will get June migration data, and inflation expectation updates. There also will be the July PMI update and probably the July REINZ results as well. In Australia, look out for their NAB business sentiment update, but the key event will be the RBA's rate review on Tuesday even if no-change is expected or priced in. That is despite their CPI at 3.8% and running way above their target range of 2% to 3%, and showing little sign it will get back within range any time soon. In the US, they will release their July CPI data too (expect 3.4%), their PPI (expect 5.5%) and another consumer sentiment update. In China, we are awaiting their new yuan debt data which should come late this week and be another quite weak result (expect just +¥45 bln). Over the weekend China released their CPI inflation data, revealing an annual inflation rate of just 0.5% in July, down from 1.0% in the previous month. Analysts had expected an 0.8% rate in July so this was their lowest level since January. Food prices dropped 1.5% year-on-year, following a 1.6% decline in the previous month and marking the fourth straight month it fell. But beef prices rose +4.5% and lamb prices by +6.2% in July from a year ago. Dairy product prices were -1.5% lower however. Meanwhile, China's producer prices rose +3.5% in July from a year ago, slowing from a 4.1% rise in June, and that is their steepest rise in nearly four years. The retreating pace is due to weaker commodity prices, softer domestic demand, and continued pressure from overcapacity. There is also intense price competition in some industries. China's exports surged almost +24% to US$398 bln in July in a better than expected result. The gains were driven by strong demand for AI-related technology products and a rush by manufacturers to ship goods to the US ahead of potential new tariffs. Outbound shipments to the US rose +17%, the EU by +16%, and to ASEAN nations by +38%. And while China reported relatively stable foreign exchange reserves as at the end of July, they also reported that their official gold holdings rose +640,000 oz, almost +20 tonnes in one month. That is the most in a 21 month streak of gold buying. Meanwhile Typhoon Dolphin is heading for the China coast after clipping Okinawa, due to strike south of Shanghai. It is a Cat 3 storm and over 1 mln people have been evacuated to safer ground. Taiwanese exports stayed very high at US$75.3 bln, just off record levels, but as time rolls on with these high or record high levels, the year-on-year gains are fading. Still, they managed to report a +33% rise from a year ago, an unusually strong gain. And their trade surplus remained unusually large at +US$17.2 bln, up from +US$14.3 bln in July 2025. Across the Pacific in the US economy, and even with Trump loyalists controlling the data agency, US non-farm payrolls were reported contracting in July, down -23,000 at the headline level when a very modest +80,000 was expected. That is their worst July result in at least a decade. And it get much worse if you look at actual data because payrolls shrank almost -1.1 mln in July from June before seasonal adjustment. This is the real number of people who lost employment in the month. Their participation rate inched down while their jobless rate was little-changed at 4.1%. US inflation expectations for one year ahead edged down to 3.6% in July from 3.7% in June which was the highest since September 2023. The July level is the new baseline since the US attacked Iran. Prior to that, this survey recorded about 3% for the prior two years. Earnings in the same survey are seen to rise +2.8%, so that continues to record an underwater expectation for household finances. US consumer debt levels rose +3.3% in June with revolving credit rising +6.0% on the same basis as both credit card debt and car loans rising sharply. Student loans recorded an unusual fall. A weakening labour market and both stubbornly high inflation and inflation expectations will complicate the discussions in Warsh's Fed meetings. Do they cut, hold or raise. There are probably votes for all three options. Markets currently price in half a chance of a +25 bps hike in September. And Trump is back trying to screw the scrum. There was quite the contrast in Canada with them reporting their employment rose +75,100 in July from June. It will have been a very long time since they had a gain that exceeded their southern neighbour. Their jobless rate fell to 6.4% and a two year low while their participation rate inched up. Bird flu is spreading in Australia, even if the number of reported cases is still quite minor. There is no way to properly track it, and by the time reports are received, infection is well established.... The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.66%, up +2 bps from this time Saturday but down -8 bps for the week. The price of gold has risen to US$4343/oz, up +US$6 from Saturday, up +US$293 or +7% from a week ago. Silver has held little-changed at just over US$63.50/oz. That is up +US$5.50/oz for the week or a +9.5% gain. Oil prices are unchanged from yesterday and still just over US$78/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still just on US$83.50/bbl, A week ago these prices were US$84.50 and US$88/bbl respectively. Hormuz transits are still very constrained. There have been only three crude tanker and 6 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (3 dark with transponders off) and eight entering for new loads (3 dark), again all Iran-linked. The Red Sea activity is still low with just 20 either way at the Yemen chokepoint. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday at just over 58.9 USc, making it unchanged for the week. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 83.4 AUc. Against the euro we have held at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.6 which is up a bit less than +10 bps from this time Saturday essentially unchanged for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$65,151 and up +0.6% from this time Saturday, up +3.3% from last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very low however at just on +/-0.3%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI
This week Belinda Allen wraps up the surprise CPI result for July and unpacks the RBA Board Meeting Minutes for August. June quarter GDP is released next week and Belinda discusses where the drivers and the number sits before the rest of the partial data. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. No Reliance This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes. This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made. Liability Disclaimer The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
Markets have already priced in a Fed cut, given the mixed economic data in the July labor and CPI prints. Our Global Economist Arunima Sinha makes the case for why we're standing by our baseline call for a higher bar for a rate cut. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Arunima Sinha: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Arunima Sinha, Global Economist at Morgan Stanley. Today – our evaluation of the Fed's policy path following the July CPI print, and the broader implications for other central banks. It's Wednesday, August 20th at 2pm in New York. Our baseline call has been that the Fed will remain on hold this year, and last week's CPI print has not changed that view. As we have noted, average tariff rates are still ramping up given the implementation delays, and so their cumulative effect on prices could be more lagged. Within the CPI print, tariff exposed goods other than apparel and autos continued to be firm. The surprise came in services inflation, which showed a reversal led by the uptick in airfares and hotel prices, which had been running in deflationary territory for much of this year. Some of the pushback against our view on inflation stepping up over the summer due to tariffs was that services disinflation could compensate. But as this print showed, that is unlikely to be the case. While we expect services inflation to continue to moderate, we think that services disinflation in the first half of [20]25 was exaggerated by weakness and volatile competence; and both core CPI and core PCE inflation are still at their pace from last year. So further acceleration in goods inflation from tariff effects over the summer would still see inflation remaining well above the Fed's target. After the July U.S. employment and CPI reports, the bar for the Fed to stay on hold in September is clearly higher. So, what are the risks to our call? The road goes back to how the data and the Fed's reaction function will evolve over ahead of the September meeting. The August jobs report will be important. If it is a solid employment report, with a sequential acceleration in payrolls and the unemployment rate around 4.2 to 4.3 percent, then the Fed could likely look through the weakness in the May and June prints – attributing the slowdown to the uncertainty following Liberation Day and not representative of the underlying trend. If, however, there were to be a sharp drop off in the hiring pace, which is currently not being indicated by other job market indicators such as jolts or claims, then the Fed could take the view that the labor market is much weaker than anticipated and restart easing. There is also the possibility of a cut from a risk management perspective. Even with inflation running well above target, the Fed could take the July employment report as a clear signal of downside risk to the labor market and start the easing cycle. Messaging from Fed officials has so far been mixed, with some taking signal from the jobs data and others remaining less worried with the unemployment rate remaining low. Outside the U.S., central bank trajectories remain tightly linked to both the Fed's path and the evolving U.S. growth outlook. Recent labor market data have introduced downside risks to our ECB and BoJ calls. In Europe, if Euro strength persists and U.S. recession risks rise, our euro area economists see a reduced risk to their September easing baseline. In Japan, the Bank of Japan remains cautious. Stronger U.S. data could tilt the balance toward a rate hike later this year – though October remains a high hurdle, making December or beyond more plausible. That said, if the U.S. economy slows in line with our forecast, the likelihood of further BoJ tightening diminishes reinforcing our base case – the BoJ staying on hold through end of 2026. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
US equities were higher again this week, with the S&P and Nasdaq finishing just below the record highs they hit earlier in the week. As widely expected, the White House announced another 90-day extension of China's tariff deadline, shifting it to early November. July CPI was expected to be the centerpiece of the week; Both headline and core measures printed in line with consensus, though takeaways flagged limited but evident tariff impacts to certain categories.
Earlier this week, the July CPI report showed consumer prices remained steady, despite tariff noise. Today's producer price index tells a different story: Wholesale prices grew a whopping 3.3% year-over-year. When might retailers pass those higher costs on to consumers? We break it down. Plus: Automated applications sow pessimism among job hunters, New York City marks two months of a ban on tenant-paid broker fees, and U.S. oil refineries face regionally different outlooks.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.
Earlier this week, the July CPI report showed consumer prices remained steady, despite tariff noise. Today's producer price index tells a different story: Wholesale prices grew a whopping 3.3% year-over-year. When might retailers pass those higher costs on to consumers? We break it down. Plus: Automated applications sow pessimism among job hunters, New York City marks two months of a ban on tenant-paid broker fees, and U.S. oil refineries face regionally different outlooks.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.
Although tariff negotiations continue, deals are being made, shifting investor focus on assessing the fallout. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen consider the ripple effects on inflation and the bond market. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist. Michael Zezas: Today, how are tariffs impacting the economy and what it means for bond markets? It's Wednesday, August 13th at 10:30am in New York. Michael, we've been talking about how the near-term uncertainty around tariff levels has come down. Tariff deals are, of course, still pending with some major U.S. trading partners like China; but agreements are starting to come together. And though there's lots of ways they could break over time, in the near-term, deals like the one with Europe signal that the U.S. might be happy for several months with what's been arranged. And so, the range of outcomes has shrunk. The U.S.' current effective tariff rate of 16 percent is about where we thought we'd be at year end. But that's substantially higher than the roughly 3 percent we started the year with. So, not as bad as it looked like it could have been after tariffs were announced on April 2nd, but still substantially higher. Now's the time when investors should stay away from chasing tariff headlines and guessing what the President might do next; and instead focus on assessing the impact of what's been done. With that as the backdrop, we got some relevant data yesterday, the Consumer Price Index for July. You were expecting that this would show some clear signs of tariffs pushing prices higher. Why was that? Michael Gapen: Well, we did analysis on the 2018-2019 tariff episode. So, in looking at the input-output tables, which give you an idea of how prices move through certain sectors of the economy, and applying that to the 2018 episode of tariffs – we got the result that you should see some tariff inflation in June, and then sequentially more as we move into the late summer and the early fall. So, the short answer, Mike, is a model based plus history-based exercise – that said yes, we should start seeing the effects of tariffs on those categories, where the direct effect is high. So that'd be most of your goods categories. Over time, as we move into later this year or early next year, it'll be more important to think about indirect effects, if any. Michael Zezas: Got it. So, the July CPI data that came out yesterday, then did it corroborate this view? Michael Gapen: Yes and no. So, I'm an economist, so I have to do a two-handed view on this. So yes… Michael Zezas: Always fair. Michael Gapen: Always, yes. So, yes, core goods prices rose by two-tenths on the month, in June they also rose by two-tenths. Prior to this goods' prices were largely flat with some of the big durables, items like autos being negative, right? So, we had all the give back following COVID. So, the prior trend was flat to negative. The last two months, they've shown two-tenths increases. And we've seen upward pressure on things like household furnishings, apparel. We saw a strong used car print this month, motor vehicle and repairs. So, all of that suggests that tariffs are starting to flow through. Now, we didn't – on the other hand – is we didn't get as much as we thought. New car prices were flat and maybe those price increases will be delayed until models – the 2026 models start hitting the lot. That would be September or later. And we didn't actually; I said apparel. Apparel was up stronger last month. It really wasn't up all that much this month. So, the CPI data for July corroborated the view that the inflation pass through is happening. Where I think it didn't answer the question is how much of it are we going to get and should we expect a lot of it to be front loaded? Or is this going to be a longer process? Michael Zezas: Got it. And then, does that mean that tariffs aren't having the sort of aggregate impact on the economy that many thought they would? Or is maybe the composition of that impact different? So, maybe prices aren't going up so much, but companies are managing those costs in other ways. How would you break that down? Michael Gapen: We would say, and our view is that, yes, you know, we have written down a forecast. And we used our modeling in the 2018-20 19 episode to tell us what's a reasonable forecast for how quickly and to what degree these tariffs should show up in inflation. But obviously, this has been a substantial move in tariffs. They didn't start all at once. They've come in different phases and there's a lot of lags here. So, I just think there's a wide range of potential outcomes here. So, I wouldn't conclude that tariffs are not having the effect we thought they would. I think it's way too early and would be incorrect to conclude, just [be]cause we've had relatively modest tariff pressures in June and July, inflation that we can be sanguine and say it's not a big deal and we should just move on.Michael Zezas: And even so, is it fair to say that there's still plenty of evidence that this is weighing on growth in the way you anticipated? Michael Gapen: I think so. I mean, it's clear the economy has moderated. If we kind of strip out the volatility and trade and inventories, final sales to domestic purchasers 1.5 in the first quarter. It was 1.1 in the second quarter, and a lot of that slowdown was related to spending by the consumer. And a slowdown in business spending. So that that could be a little more, maybe about policy uncertainty and not knowing exactly what to do and how to plan. But it also we think is reflected in a slowdown, in the pace of hiring. So, I would say, you got the policy uncertainty shock first. That also came through the effect of the April 2nd Liberation Day tariffs, which probably caused a freeze in hiring and spending activity for a bit. And now I would say we're moving into the part of the world where the actual increase in tariffs are going to happen. So, we'll know whether or not firms can pass these prices along or not. If they can't, we'll probably get a weaker labor market. If they can, we'll continue to see it in inflation.But Mike, let me ask you a question now. You've had all the fun. Let me turn the table. Michael Zezas: Fair enough. Michael Gapen: How much does it matter for you or your team, whether or not these tariffs are pushing prices higher? And/or delaying cuts from the Fed. How do you think about that on your side? Michael Zezas: Yeah, so this question of composition and lags is really interesting. I think though that if the end state here is as you forecast – that we'll end up with weaker growth, and as a consequence, the Fed will embark on a substantial rate cutting program. Then the direction of travel for bond yields from here is still lower. So, if that's the case, then obviously this would be a favorable backdrop for owners of U.S. treasury bonds. It's probably also good news for owners of corporate credit, but the story's a bit trickier here. If yields move lower on weaker growth, but we ultimately avoid a recession, this might be the sweet spot for corporate credit. You've got fundamental strength holding that limits credit risk, and so you get performance from all in yields declining – both the yield expressed by the risk-free rate, as well as the credit spread. But if we tipped into recession, then naturally we'd expect there to be a repricing of all risk in the market. You'd expect there to be some expression of fundamental weakness and credit spreads would widen. So, government bonds would've been a better product to own in that environment.But, of course, Michael, we have to consider alternative outcomes where yields go higher, and this would turn into a bad environment for bond returns that would appear to be most likely in the scenario where U.S. growth actually ticks higher, resetting expectations for monetary policy in a more hawkish direction.So, what do you think investors should watch for that would lead to that outcome? Is it something like an AI productivity boom or maybe something else that's not on our radar? Michael Gapen: Yeah, so I think that is something investors do have to think about; and let me frame one way to think about that – where ex-post any easing by the Fed as early as September might be retroactively viewed as a policy mistake, right? So, we can say, yes, tariffs should slow down growth and maybe that happens in the second half of this year. The Fed maybe eases rates as a pre-emptive measure or risk management approach to avoid too much weakness in the labor market. So even though the Fed is seeing firming inflation now, which it is. It could ease in September, maybe again in December [be]cause it's worried about the labor market. So maybe that's what dominates 2025. And, and like you said, perhaps in the very near term, continues to pull bond prices lower. But what if we get into 2026 and the tariff effect or the tariff drag on growth fades, and the consumer begins to accelerate. So, we don't have a recession, we just get a bit of a divot in growth and then the economy recovers. Then fiscal policy kicks in, right? We don't think the One Big, Beautiful Bill act will provide a lot of stimulus, but we could be wrong. It could kickstart animal spirits and bring forward a lot of business spending. And then maybe AI, as you said; that could be a combining factor and financial conditions would be very easy in that world, in part – given that the Fed has eased, right? So that that could be a world where, you know, growth is modest, but it's firming. Inflation that's moved up to about 3 percent or maybe a little bit higher later this year kind of stays there. And then retroactively, the problem is the Fed eased financial conditions into that and inflation's kind of stuck around 3 percent. Bond yields – at least the long end – would probably react negatively in that world. Michael Zezas: Yeah, that makes perfect sense to us. Well, Michael, thanks for taking the time to talk with me. Michael Gapen: Thanks for having me on, Mike. Michael Zezas: And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and tell your friends about the podcast. We want everyone to listen.
July CPI came in below expectations once again. Time to reduce rates, Arrest Schiff. Prosecute Schiff. Expel Schiff. Pick one or all, Finally, an honest talk about what Christians dealt with under the Biden years, Matt Bair coffee coming back! Indiana House Democrats are traveling to Illinois tomorrow to vent about the evils of partisan gerrymandering. Cartel members transferred to US from Mexico, Governor Mike Braun on the state of Indiana and the Beckwith - Morales distractions at the Statehouse, Chinese Wedding Bed, What is a civil unrest reaction force? How will Tony fly his mother home for Thanksgiving, NY Times is a disgrace, Weekly mortgage refinancing demand shoots 23% higher, Takes from this morning interview with Governor Mike Braun See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
July CPI came in below expectations once again. Time to reduce rates, Arrest Schiff. Prosecute Schiff. Expel Schiff. Pick one or all, Finally, an honest talk about what Christians dealt with under the Biden years, Matt Bair coffee coming back! Indiana House Democrats are traveling to Illinois tomorrow to vent about the evils of partisan gerrymanderingSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Today we had the pleasure of welcoming Jillene Connors Belopolsky, Chief of Staff and Chief External Affairs Officer at the Clean Cooking Alliance (CCA), to our Houston studio. Jillene joined the CCA in 2021 and has over a decade of experience in energy sustainability, strategy, and innovation. She previously served as Head of North America for Earth Security Group and in several senior roles at BP, where she developed strategies addressing the environmental and societal impacts of technology, climate change, and carbon management. Established in 2010, the CCA works to enable, influence, and accelerate local transitions to clean cooking solutions globally by supporting governments, unlocking and diversifying funding, strengthening enterprises, and fostering a harmonized, resilient ecosystem. We were thrilled to hear Jillene's insights on this important and often overlooked issue. In our conversation, Jillene shares an overview of the CCA's mission, scope, and focus on energy poverty, as well as her personal journey in becoming interested in working to alleviate energy poverty to enable people to live the best lives of their own choosing. We discuss the importance of energy access for prosperity, the scale of the challenge with 675 million people without electricity and 2.1 billion relying on polluting cooking fuels, and the health, environmental, and economic impacts of lacking clean cooking solutions, as well as why clean cooking is often overlooked despite its broad benefits. Jillene walks us through the CCA's range of solutions including induction stoves, improved biomass stoves, LPG with PAYGO models, ethanol solutions, and domestic biogas systems, alongside financing models and clean cooking performance standards. We explore ecosystem participants, from stove and fuel manufacturers to distributors and technology providers, as well as innovations such as smart metering, fuel ATMs, e-cooking tariffs, and monitored biogas systems. We touch on different LPG delivery methods, why Kenya is a leading example due to its prioritized clean cooking policies and regulatory environment, the $8.5 billion annual funding gap for deploying clean cooking solutions, the capital mix needed, government and international support, and opportunities to harmonize taxes and tariffs, build trade, and scale solutions across East and West Africa. Additionally, we discuss how businesses and individuals can support clean cooking solutions, the importance of a diverse mix of approaches, and clean cooking's immediate, cost-effective benefits for health, environment, and energy access. We cover the necessity of government leadership in creating an enabling environment for clean cooking access and economic development, why a combined government-private sector approach is needed in Africa, the urgent need for private sector involvement to accelerate progress, the strategic opportunity for energy companies to leverage their expertise and resources to support clean cooking initiatives, and much more. It was a thought-provoking discussion and we're very grateful to Jillene for sharing her expertise with us. For additional information on the CCA, their 2024 Annual Report is linked here. Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting the 10-year bond yield (~4.3%) was unchanged as July CPI reported in-line with expectations. July PPI is due Wednesday, and if it also reports in-line, markets will be anticipating the first of three interest rates cuts for 2025 at the September FOMC Meeting. Initial Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, and Consumer Sentiment reports are all set to report later this week. The S&P 500 rallied ~1% on Tuesday mostly due to the in-line CPI print. Equity markets over the next few months will likely be more driven by economic/world events than equity fundamentals. The path of least resistance still looks up and to the right,
With the July CPI report meeting expectations, investor optimism is growing for at least a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September. Kevin Green breaks down why Treasury yields are climbing ahead of Wednesday's open and what's driving Ethereum to a 4-year high. On the earnings front, CoreWeave (CRWV) shares are under pressure after posting a much larger-than-expected 2nd quarter loss.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
The inflation impact of Trump's tariffs fails to show in July's CPI print, leading investors to ramp up bets on a September Fed cut, and pushing global equity markets higher. Meanwhile, European leaders prepare for today's virtual talks with Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy - calling on the U.S. leader to safeguard Ukrainian territory and not bow to Putin's demands at Friday's Alaska summit. Software stocks on both sides of the Atlantic tumble - with SAP posting its worst day since the COVID-19 outbreak - as investors fret that AI could upend many of the world's biggest software companies.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Host Jennifer Sanasie breaks down the latest news in the crypto industry as U.S. inflation data for July came in mixed.U.S. inflation data for July came in mixed, with headline numbers better than forecast, but the core rate rising faster than expected. How will the result affect the Fed's decision on interest rates in September? CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie hosts “CoinDesk Daily.”-Midnight is introducing a novel approach to token distribution. The Midnight Glacier Drop is a multi-phase distribution of the NIGHT token, aimed at empowering a broad, diverse community to build the future of the Midnight network. Holders of ADA, BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB, AVAX and BAT are eligible to participate in the first phase.Help usher in the next generation of blockchain with rational privacy and cooperative tokenomics on the Midnight network. To learn more, visit midnight.gd and prepare for the Midnight Glacier Drop.-This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie. “CoinDesk Daily” is produced by Jennifer Sanasie and edited by Victor Chen.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber led off the show with market reaction to July CPI inflation data -- as well as what the results could mean for the Fed. Chips back in the spotlight: Beijing reportedly demanding that Chinese tech companies justify buying Nvidia's H20 chips instead of domestic alternatives. The anchors reacted to Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan's White House Meeting with President Trump. Elon Musk threatens Apple with legal action over alleged antitrust violations involving the App Store. Also in focus: Stablecoin issuer Circle Internet extends its post-IPO rally to a gain of 490% after posting its first quarterly report as a public company, Trump threatens Fed Chair Powell with a "major lawsuit." Squawk on the Street Disclaimer
Today's July CPI report could show if imported goods saw a blunter tariff impact after signs of that emerged in June. Yields might jump if the data come in hotter than expected.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and for some products and strategies, loss of more than your initial investment.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0131-0825)
Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders considers Tuesday's CPI report relatively benign. That said, she urges investors to pay very close attention to upcoming labor prints as the economy experiences "pockets of weakness." Additionally, Liz Ann notes tariffs are starting to show consequences on the economy, primarily through layoffs and pinching consumer wallets. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
On The Alan Sanders Show Episode 154, we dig into the real story behind the headlines! Is inflation cooling? We break down the July CPI numbers and how Trump's tariffs haven't seemed to be affecting inflation by any strong degree. We tackle President Trump's controversial federalization of D.C. police, sold as a crime crackdown. Democrats say there is a 26% drop in crime in 2025, but are those numbers rigged? Under-reporting and FBI data revisions, like the 2022 violent crime spike, hide the true crime picture. Plus, we dive into allegations of Rep. Adam Schiff leaking classified documents to hurt President Trump. We do ponder if former AG William Barr was colluding with DA Fani Willis, but while there is smoke, we don't have anything definitive, yet. And meet Chuck Schumer's fictional Baileys, the imaginary couple steering his career. Join us for unfiltered analysis that cuts through the spin! Subscribe and weigh in now! Please take a moment to rate and review the show and then share the episode on social media. You can find me on Facebook, X, Instagram, GETTR, TRUTH Social and YouTube by searching for The Alan Sanders Show. And, consider becoming a sponsor of the show by visiting my Patreon page!
Tariffs are starting to feed into consumer prices; however, falling energy and food costs are offsetting the increase to some degree. In this episode of Research Recap, chief global economist Bruce Kasman and head of U.S. Inflation Strategy Phoebe White unpack the numbers from the July CPI report. Will we see further tariff pass-through in the coming months? What are the implications for the Fed? And what does the inflation picture look like across the rest of the globe? This episode was recorded on August 12, 2025. This communication has been prepared based upon information from sources believed to be reliable, but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to J.P. Morgan and/or its affiliates and an analyst's involvement with any company (or security, other financial product or other asset class) that may be the subject of this communication. Any opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. J.P. Morgan Research does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Any opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned or related to the information herein. Periodic updates may be provided on companies, issuers or industries based on specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. However, J.P. Morgan may be restricted from updating information contained in this communication for regulatory or other reasons. This communication may not be redistributed or retransmitted, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of J.P. Morgan. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitutes your agreement not to redistribute or retransmit the contents and information contained in this communication without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of J.P. Morgan. Copyright 2025, JPMorganChase & Co. All rights reserved.
Last week featured records for the tech-heavy Nasdaq, along with S&P 500 strength. Today's calendar is light, but investors await tomorrow's tariff deadline for China and CPI data.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and for some products and strategies, loss of more than your initial investment.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0131-0825)
After a winning week, stock futures are higher ahead of the release of the July CPI, PPI and Retail Sales data. Kevin Green discusses what will be a busy week for geopolitical headlines, with the China-U.S. tariff truce set to expire on Tuesday, and President Trump expected to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday in Alaska. Meanwhile, FT is reporting that Nvidia and AMD have agreed to pay 15% of its chip sales revenue to China, sending the semiconductor stocks lower.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
Volatility is picking up in the stock market, but the Nasdaq still signals further upside within a steady rising trend. The end of the week could be pivotal for what comes next.Before that, we'll get the inflation prints: CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Thursday. Consensus looks for July CPI at +0.2% MoM and ~2.8% YoY.Many economists have argued since February for higher inflation. Jim disagrees—he argues lower energy prices will keep inflation in check, offsetting tariff pressures by reducing production and transport costs.Thanks to a strong rally in NIO since the last podcast, the $1,000 Challenge is now heading toward $4,000.All this and more in this week's episode of Trading Tips With Jim.Topics: Nasdaq, CPI, PPI, inflation, energy prices, tariffs, NIO, stock market outlook, trading strategies.
Nora Szentivanyi, Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the July CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for global inflation and monetary policy. Global inflation remains sticky at 3% with a 0.3% monthly core CPI gain in July. But a regional rotation is under way in which a greater easing in labor cost pressures and goods price declines are producing a pronounced slide in US core inflation. While US core CPI inflation eased to just 1.6%ar in the three months to July, Euro area core HICP rose at a 3.5%ar and EM core inflation (ex China, Turkiye and Russia) reaccelerated close to 4%. This podcast was recorded on Aug 22, 2024. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
This week we discuss the back and forth between recession and soft landing, the bond market's economic signals, and the Fed's measured response to the market sell-off. We also delve into the massive VIX decline, July's CPI, and the frustrating crypto market. Enjoy! -- On the Margin Survey: https://on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b -- Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin – Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:39) Schrödinger's Soft Landing (04:19) What Is The Bond Market Saying About The Economy? (06:54) The Fed Kept Its Cool (09:05) Massive VIX Decline (11:40) Will Markets Adjust To The Sell-Off? (18:06) The Role Of Flows (21:57) July CPI (24:58) What's Going On With China? (29:13) The Fed's Next Move (31:26) Market Overreaction (34:17) Bitcoin & ETFs (40:06) Frustrating Crypto Market (42:48) How Many New Balances Does Tyler Own? (44:09) What Can Stop The Fiscal Debt Spiral? (47:53) Why The BOJ Backpedaled (53:41) The Globalization Of Central Banks -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Peter Schiff dissects the latest inflation data, emphasizing the government's manipulation in underreporting true inflation figures. He compares the July CPI and PPI reports, suggesting real inflation rates could be double the official numbers. Schiff highlights the significant federal budget deficit and its implications for future inflation. He argues that the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut is politically driven and could backfire. Schiff also discusses the repercussions of government policies on industries like solar energy, resulting in SunPower's bankruptcy. He critiques government intervention in housing, education, and healthcare, asserting these measures have increased costs and decreased efficiency. Lastly, Schiff commends Elon Musk's take on inflation and calls for substantial reductions in government spending and more market-driven solutions.⭐️ Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.
July CPI clocks-on on-target for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, as it indicate inflation is trending downward. This would set-up the Fed for up to four rate cuts by the end of the year, but not so great for stocks. Watch for seasonal adjustments to Retail Sales reports. Markets will challenge 50-DMA, and could end its correction today. Your personal experience with inflation is not the same as Government calculations, which is what markets look at. CPI was on the money, and the trend is lower. Economic data can fluctuate monthly. Focus on trends for a clearer picture! Lance and Michael answer an email question about investing in Dividend Stocks; what does the Yield infer? Looking at the Peg ratio, and what indicators about a company matter. Dividend stocks vs growth stocks. What makes for a better bond: Coupon vs Yield (how did the yield get there)? Lance and Michael address YouTube Chat question about Covered Call ETF's vs Dividend ETF's. SEG-1: CPI On-Target for Fed Rate Cuts SEG-2: Why We Have to Live with Government Numbers SEG-3: How to Evaluate Company Dividends SEG-4A: What's a Better Bond - Coupon vs Yield SEG-4B: Covered Call ETF's vs Dividend ETF's Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GpYHGC8wAvg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Stealth QE Or Rubbish From Dr Doom?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/stealth-qe-or-rubbish-from-dr-doom/ "Are Mega-Caps About To Make A Mega-Comeback?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/are-mega-caps-about-to-be-a-mega-buy/ "Market Crash – Is It Over?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Is This Correction Over?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azi3cmQKk54&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Looking for Rate Cut Clues in CPI Data" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYcQKsvQ1W0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #PPI #CPI #Inflation #EconomicData #SeasonalAdjustments #Trends #YearOverYearGrowth #ThreeMonthAverages #SixMonthAverages #DataFluctuations #StateReporting #DataGlitch #EconomicAnalysis #UnderstandingTrends #MonthToMonthData #AccurateInterpretation #EconomicIndicators #DataInterpretation #DividendStocks #CoveredCallETF #DividendETF #BondYield #BondCoupon #FinancialAdvice #StatisticalMethods #CarefulAnalysis #Markets #Money #Investing
July CPI clocks-on on-target for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, as it indicate inflation is trending downward. This would set-up the Fed for up to four rate cuts by the end of the year, but not so great for stocks. Watch for seasonal adjustments to Retail Sales reports. Markets will challenge 50-DMA, and could end its correction today. Your personal experience with inflation is not the same as Government calculations, which is what markets look at. CPI was on the money, and the trend is lower. Economic data can fluctuate monthly. Focus on trends for a clearer picture! Lance and Michael answer an email question about investing in Dividend Stocks; what does the Yield infer? Looking at the Peg ratio, and what indicators about a company matter. Dividend stocks vs growth stocks. What makes for a better bond: Coupon vs Yield (how did the yield get there)? Lance and Michael address YouTube Chat question about Covered Call ETF's vs Dividend ETF's. SEG-1: CPI On-Target for Fed Rate Cuts SEG-2: Why We Have to Live with Government Numbers SEG-3: How to Evaluate Company Dividends SEG-4A: What's a Better Bond - Coupon vs Yield SEG-4B: Covered Call ETF's vs Dividend ETF's Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GpYHGC8wAvg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Stealth QE Or Rubbish From Dr Doom?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/stealth-qe-or-rubbish-from-dr-doom/ "Are Mega-Caps About To Make A Mega-Comeback?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/are-mega-caps-about-to-be-a-mega-buy/ "Market Crash – Is It Over?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Is This Correction Over?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azi3cmQKk54&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Looking for Rate Cut Clues in CPI Data" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYcQKsvQ1W0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #PPI #CPI #Inflation #EconomicData #SeasonalAdjustments #Trends #YearOverYearGrowth #ThreeMonthAverages #SixMonthAverages #DataFluctuations #StateReporting #DataGlitch #EconomicAnalysis #UnderstandingTrends #MonthToMonthData #AccurateInterpretation #EconomicIndicators #DataInterpretation #DividendStocks #CoveredCallETF #DividendETF #BondYield #BondCoupon #FinancialAdvice #StatisticalMethods #CarefulAnalysis #Markets #Money #Investing
J.P. Morgan Interest Rate Strategist Phoebe White and US economist Mike Hanson discuss their takeaways from the July CPI report, the path ahead for Fed policy, and what we may (or may not) learn from Chair Powell at next week's Jackson Hole Symposium. They also provide their views on rates and inflation markets following recent volatility. Speakers: Phoebe White Michael Hanson This podcast was recorded on 15 August 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4773440-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/KAL-1-TXGZRLBR for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Today we were thrilled to welcome back Erik Milito, President of the National Ocean Industries Association (NOIA). Erik has served as President of NOIA since 2019 following 17 years in several leadership roles at the American Petroleum Institute and prior experience as an attorney in the Solicitor's Office of the US Department of the Interior. Erik served on active duty in the US Army as a Judge Advocate from 1995 to 2000 and continued his service in the US Army Reserve from 2000 to 2004. NOIA's mission is to advance and promote the interests of the offshore oil, gas, wind and ocean minerals industries. We last hosted Erik on COBT in April 2021 (episode linked here) and were excited to reconnect for an update on offshore activity. In the discussion, Erik provides an overview of the NOIA's role to promote favorable policies related to offshore leasing, permitting, and regulation covering all flavors of energy including oil and gas, wind, carbon capture and storage and minerals. We start the conversation with Erik reminding us of the importance of the Gulf of Mexico as a booming region for the country and then dig into the challenges of offshore wind as an emerging sector. We cover the fascinating contrast of lease sales in the current administration compared to historical numbers. As the episode title mentions, this will be the first year since 1958 without a single federal offshore lease sale. We touch on advances in technology as current operations explore deeper depths / higher pressures in recent years, and we dig into how Erik sees the offshore wind industry developing from the services standpoint over the next couple of years. We also cover the complex issues around insurance and decommissioning platforms. We move on to discuss the positive relationship with the fishing industry and the significant role that the coastal state governments play in the world of the NOIA. Erik shares his perspective on Washington DC, the current climate given the election, and his sense of the public's mood and attitude towards the various sources of energy that the NOIA is involved in. We wrap up the discussion by getting Erik's thoughts on the progress of carbon capture over the last few years and the slower pace of offshore versus onshore CO2 projects and he urges that more progress would be possible with the cooperation of the government around permitting and regulatory support. We end the discussion with the areas that Erik is most optimistic about for the NOIA's membership which includes opportunities in the Gulf of Mexico. It was a fantastic conversation. Thanks to Erik for joining us! Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting that trading in markets last week could be summed up briefly in two words: “volatility & reversal”. On the bond market, he highlighted that the 10-year bond yield was trading modestly lower due to a cooler-than-expected PPI. He also noted that this was a heavy economic reporting week with July CPI set to report on Wednesday and Initial Jobless Claims & Retail Sales on Thursday. On crude oil, he highlighted that WTI price was down ~$2/bbl. on Tuesday due to monthly reports from the IEA & OPEC showing minor 2024 demand reductions. He noted that despite these two demand datapoints that WTI still rebounded by ~$6/bbl. over the 5+ trading days due to improving technicals (WTI price back above its 50/100 day moving averages) and growing supply concerns (potential Iranian retaliation against Israel & Ukrainian incursion into Russia). He rounded out the conversation by highlighting that 3mo rolling forward copper prices have declined over the last 4-5 weeks (~$10.5k/MT down to ~$9k/MT) due to continued global demand concerns and elevated LME Copper inventories. He also noted that copper prices were getting bid up this week due to a workers s
S&P futures are pointing to a flat open today ahead of the July CPI data. Asian markets finished Wednesday trading mix, and European equity markets continue to climb in early trades. In today's macro news, Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has announced that he will not run in the upcoming LDP presidential election, effectively stepping down as PM once a new leader is chosen. Kishida's withdrawal introduces market uncertainty, with no clear successor favored by markets. While most contenders support monetary policy normalization, the implications for fiscal policy and investor participation initiatives, such as the NISA program, remain uncertain. Analysts expect equities to be most affected, with yen direction influenced by external factors and JGBs by supply-demand conditions.Companies Mentioned: Honeywell, Allstate, Alphabet, Kellanova, Southwest Airlines
Today's July CPI came in below 3% year over year for the first time since early 2021, underscoring chances of possible rate cuts. Cisco and Asian economic data due after the close.Important DisclosuresInformation on this site is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered individualized recommendations or personalized investment advice. The type of securities and investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review a security transaction for his or her own particular situation. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic and geo-political conditions.Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.All corporate names are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.
S&P Futures are flat to higher this morning as the markets awaits another key economic data report. Before the bell today the July CPI data is scheduled for release. Japan's Prime Minister announced that he will step down in September. Iran thought to be waiting on the outcome of the Gaza ceasefire talks before making a decision on an Israeli strike. Boeing is said to be close to an $18.8B deal on fighter jets for Israel. Mars is close to a 30B deal for Kellanova. Elliott Mgmt planning for a proxy fight with Southwest Airlines. PTON is higher after announcing a deal with Google. CAH released an earnings beat while EAT missed this morning. Oil prices have given back earlier gain and are now lower. In Europe, stocks have turned lower.
Overview: Tune into this week's episode of Launch Financial as we discuss a slew of economic data, including this week's CPI and PPI reports, showing signs of cooling inflation, moving towards the Fed's target of 2%. Show Notes:
Following a wild week on Wall Street, the U.S. markets have stabilized. However, economists continue to warn of a possible recession, and investors, as well as everyday Americans, are still focused on inflation. All eyes will be on the July CPI and PPI reports this week to show whether it is cooling. FOX Business correspondent Lydia Hu speaks with Mark Malek, the Chief Investment Officer at Siebert NXT, to discuss recession concerns, the key earning reports expected this week, and the impact the Fed's expected interest rate cuts could have on the economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Following a wild week on Wall Street, the U.S. markets have stabilized. However, economists continue to warn of a possible recession, and investors, as well as everyday Americans, are still focused on inflation. All eyes will be on the July CPI and PPI reports this week to show whether it is cooling. FOX Business correspondent Lydia Hu speaks with Mark Malek, the Chief Investment Officer at Siebert NXT, to discuss recession concerns, the key earning reports expected this week, and the impact the Fed's expected interest rate cuts could have on the economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Following a wild week on Wall Street, the U.S. markets have stabilized. However, economists continue to warn of a possible recession, and investors, as well as everyday Americans, are still focused on inflation. All eyes will be on the July CPI and PPI reports this week to show whether it is cooling. FOX Business correspondent Lydia Hu speaks with Mark Malek, the Chief Investment Officer at Siebert NXT, to discuss recession concerns, the key earning reports expected this week, and the impact the Fed's expected interest rate cuts could have on the economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Portfolio construction specialist Vivek Anand explores the latest developments in global markets, highlighting the significant volatility that characterised the past week. He discusses the sharp sell-off in equity markets driven by recession fears and yen carry-trade unwinding, as well as the subsequent recovery rallies. Vivek also examines the performance of DB's quant systematic strategies, particularly Portfolio 365, which experienced a sharp decline on Monday before recovering some ground. He delves into the performance of the pro-cyclical, defensive, and balanced sub-portfolios, providing insights into how they navigated the choppy market environment. Additionally, Vivek previews the key upcoming economic events, including the July CPI and retail sales data and their potential impact on quant strategies.
ESPN just made $2 billion in a deal with a casino company to put its name on their sports betting website and app. ESPN may be adding gambling to their portfolio because traditional revenue streams don’t cut it anymore. Plus, worker productivity is up — how come? We’ll also look at WeWork’s fizzle into likely closure, and what the July CPI means for rate hikes.
ESPN just made $2 billion in a deal with a casino company to put its name on their sports betting website and app. ESPN may be adding gambling to their portfolio because traditional revenue streams don’t cut it anymore. Plus, worker productivity is up — how come? We’ll also look at WeWork’s fizzle into likely closure, and what the July CPI means for rate hikes.
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