Podcasts about july cpi

  This week Belinda Allen, Stephen Wu and Gareth Aird deep dive into the July CPI data as well as the upcoming June quarter GDP data. Stephen notes disinflation broadened in July, beyond the electricity rebates. July retail trade was soft given the start of income tax cuts. While Gareth discuss the June quarter GDP print which should show continued modest growth in the Australian economy.     ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data' is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank's internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions,  it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group's Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Nora Szentivanyi, Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the July CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for global inflation and  monetary policy. Global inflation remains sticky at 3% with a 0.3% monthly core CPI gain in July. But a regional rotation is under way in which a greater easing in labor cost pressures and goods price declines are producing a pronounced slide in US core inflation. While US core CPI inflation eased to just 1.6%ar in the three months to July, Euro area core HICP rose at a 3.5%ar and EM core inflation (ex China, Turkiye and Russia)  reaccelerated close to 4%.   This podcast was recorded on Aug 22, 2024. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news we are now in the final two weeks of the northern holiday season, and that is anchored by the central bank shindig at Jackson Hole, WY starting at the end of the week.This week, China will review its Loan Price Rates later tomorrow. No change is expected. Canada will report July CPI inflation. And there is a dairy auction on Wednesday. So it will be a light data calendar.But first up today, more evidence that foreign direct investment has stalled into China. We marveled at the stall in both May and June and it has extended into July although it was now a positive ¥40.6 bln (NZ$9.3 bln) in the month. The net inflows are still very small for a country the size of China. In July 2023 the inflow was ¥140 bln so in July 2024 it is down -70% from then. China has been masking the stall by only referring to the 'year-to-date' results rather than the monthly outcome. But even that approach will catch up with them soon. Now YTD 2024 is down -50% on YTD 2023. That is massive.And it is not just FDI. Beijing stops reporting equity flows starting today, a key sentiment indicator to track their NZ$14 tln equity market. The data to Friday showed the year-to-date flows turning negative. So the rush seems to be on to get out. From here on, we just won't know how fast it develops. Concerned about the negativity, China told fund houses to stop displaying real-time mutual fund products' net value. The last time it was available it wasn't good. But if it does turn positive, Beijing will be the first to tell us.And the Middle Kingdom has had its weather/climate challenges this year too, more so than other large countries. The impact of floods, while common in China in summer, has grown more pronounced this year, affecting over 7 million people nationwide in July, when Beijing was struck by the worst rains in 140 years, after the capital's hottest June on record. The dramatic swings between extreme heat and intense rainfall have stressed China's power grids and shut factories, while risking the country's water security and causing widespread crop damage. Nationally, direct economic losses from natural disasters surged in July to almost NZ$10 bln in that one month, more than in January to June combined. There will be food security consequences.Meanwhile, Taiwan reported its Q2-2024 GDP expansion at +5.1%. But that was down from +6.6% on Q1-2024 even if it was up from +1.4% in the same quarter a year ago. Beijing is probably looking on in jealousy.In Japan, profits topped analyst forecasts for 70% of surveyed Japanese companies in the April-June quarter, led by the vehicle and artificial intelligence fields. Many are benefiting from the tailwind of the weak yen.In India, 19 or their 38 states are running 3%-to-GDP deficits or more in their bids to shine economically. That is raising the national public debt sharply. Delhi is concerned and tightening up what is permissible. And the central government is having to restrain itself to cover aggressive state deficit spending. The catchup of their infrastructure deficit is essentially driving the pressure.In the US the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey index rose more than expected with its first increase in five months. The expectations index improved (the highest in four months) while both the year-ahead and the five-year inflation expectations were unchanged at 2.9% and 3%, respectively.But that rising sentiment doesn't include their housing market. Housing starts fell sharply in July to their lowest level since July 2019 (pandemic excepted). Residential building consents also fell and back to 2022 levels. The US economy is expanding at pace without the support of their housing markets.But it is very much better north of the border where Canada reported a surge in housing starts, up +10% in July from the same month a year ago.And tensions are rising in Canada over the railway/union bargaining that is going down to the wire. If there aren't strikes, they will likely be lockouts.The EU said its trade surplus is rising. But that is because imports are falling faster (-8.6%) than their exports (-6.3%).The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 3.88% and down -1 bps from Saturday and down -5 bps from a week ago. The price of gold will start today up +US$1 from Saturday at US$2508/oz and a new all-time record high. A week ago this price was US$2427 so a +3.3% rise since then.Oil prices are unchanged at just on US$75.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just on US$79/bbl and unchanged in a week.The Kiwi dollar starts today unchanged from Saturday, still at 60.5 USc. A week ago (pre the OCR cut) it was at 60 USc so a +½c gain from then. Against the Aussie we are still at 90.8 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 54.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68.8 and unchanged from Saturday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$59,568 and up a mere +0.2% from this time Saturday. However it is down -1.2% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

This week we discuss the back and forth between recession and soft landing, the bond market's economic signals, and the Fed's measured response to the market sell-off. We also delve into the massive VIX decline, July's CPI, and the frustrating crypto market. Enjoy! -- On the Margin Survey: https://on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b -- Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin – Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:39) Schrödinger's Soft Landing (04:19) What Is The Bond Market Saying About The Economy? (06:54) The Fed Kept Its Cool (09:05) Massive VIX Decline (11:40) Will Markets Adjust To The Sell-Off? (18:06) The Role Of Flows (21:57) July CPI (24:58) What's Going On With China? (29:13) The Fed's Next Move (31:26) Market Overreaction (34:17) Bitcoin & ETFs (40:06) Frustrating Crypto Market (42:48) How Many New Balances Does Tyler Own? (44:09) What Can Stop The Fiscal Debt Spiral? (47:53) Why The BOJ Backpedaled (53:41) The Globalization Of Central Banks -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Peter Schiff dissects the latest inflation data, emphasizing the government's manipulation in underreporting true inflation figures. He compares the July CPI and PPI reports, suggesting real inflation rates could be double the official numbers. Schiff highlights the significant federal budget deficit and its implications for future inflation. He argues that the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut is politically driven and could backfire. Schiff also discusses the repercussions of government policies on industries like solar energy, resulting in SunPower's bankruptcy. He critiques government intervention in housing, education, and healthcare, asserting these measures have increased costs and decreased efficiency. Lastly, Schiff commends Elon Musk's take on inflation and calls for substantial reductions in government spending and more market-driven solutions.⭐️ Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.

July CPI clocks-on on-target for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, as it indicate inflation is trending downward. This would set-up the Fed for up to four rate cuts by the end of the year, but not so great for stocks. Watch for seasonal adjustments to Retail Sales reports. Markets will challenge 50-DMA, and could end its correction today. Your personal experience with inflation is not the same as Government calculations, which is what markets look at. CPI was on the money, and the trend is lower. Economic data can fluctuate monthly. Focus on trends for a clearer picture! Lance and Michael answer an email question about investing in Dividend Stocks; what does the Yield infer? Looking at the Peg ratio, and what indicators about a company matter. Dividend stocks vs growth stocks. What makes for a better bond: Coupon vs Yield (how did the yield get there)? Lance and Michael address YouTube Chat question about Covered Call ETF's vs Dividend ETF's. SEG-1: CPI On-Target for Fed Rate Cuts SEG-2: Why We Have to Live with Government Numbers SEG-3: How to Evaluate Company Dividends SEG-4A: What's a Better Bond - Coupon vs Yield SEG-4B: Covered Call ETF's vs Dividend ETF's Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GpYHGC8wAvg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Stealth QE Or Rubbish From Dr Doom?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/stealth-qe-or-rubbish-from-dr-doom/ "Are Mega-Caps About To Make A Mega-Comeback?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/are-mega-caps-about-to-be-a-mega-buy/ "Market Crash – Is It Over?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Is This Correction Over?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azi3cmQKk54&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Looking for Rate Cut Clues in CPI Data" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYcQKsvQ1W0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #PPI #CPI #Inflation #EconomicData #SeasonalAdjustments #Trends #YearOverYearGrowth #ThreeMonthAverages #SixMonthAverages #DataFluctuations #StateReporting #DataGlitch #EconomicAnalysis #UnderstandingTrends #MonthToMonthData #AccurateInterpretation #EconomicIndicators #DataInterpretation #DividendStocks #CoveredCallETF #DividendETF #BondYield #BondCoupon #FinancialAdvice #StatisticalMethods #CarefulAnalysis #Markets #Money #Investing

July CPI clocks-on on-target for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, as it indicate inflation is trending downward. This would set-up the Fed for up to four rate cuts by the end of the year, but not so great for stocks. Watch for seasonal adjustments to Retail Sales reports. Markets will challenge 50-DMA, and could end its correction today. Your personal experience with inflation is not the same as Government calculations, which is what markets look at. CPI was on the money, and the trend is lower. Economic data can fluctuate monthly. Focus on trends for a clearer picture! Lance and Michael answer an email question about investing in Dividend Stocks; what does the Yield infer? Looking at the Peg ratio, and what indicators about a company matter. Dividend stocks vs growth stocks. What makes for a better bond: Coupon vs Yield (how did the yield get there)? Lance and Michael address YouTube Chat question about Covered Call ETF's vs Dividend ETF's. SEG-1: CPI On-Target for Fed Rate Cuts SEG-2: Why We Have to Live with Government Numbers SEG-3: How to Evaluate Company Dividends SEG-4A: What's a Better Bond - Coupon vs Yield SEG-4B: Covered Call ETF's vs Dividend ETF's Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GpYHGC8wAvg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Stealth QE Or Rubbish From Dr Doom?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/stealth-qe-or-rubbish-from-dr-doom/ "Are Mega-Caps About To Make A Mega-Comeback?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/are-mega-caps-about-to-be-a-mega-buy/ "Market Crash – Is It Over?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Is This Correction Over?" is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azi3cmQKk54&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1  ------- Our previous show is here: "Looking for Rate Cut Clues in CPI Data" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYcQKsvQ1W0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #PPI #CPI #Inflation #EconomicData #SeasonalAdjustments #Trends #YearOverYearGrowth #ThreeMonthAverages #SixMonthAverages #DataFluctuations #StateReporting #DataGlitch #EconomicAnalysis #UnderstandingTrends #MonthToMonthData #AccurateInterpretation #EconomicIndicators #DataInterpretation #DividendStocks #CoveredCallETF #DividendETF #BondYield #BondCoupon #FinancialAdvice #StatisticalMethods #CarefulAnalysis #Markets #Money #Investing

J.P. Morgan Interest Rate Strategist Phoebe White and US economist Mike Hanson discuss their takeaways from the July CPI report, the path ahead for Fed policy, and what we may (or may not) learn from Chair Powell at next week's Jackson Hole Symposium. They also provide their views on rates and inflation markets following recent volatility. Speakers: Phoebe White Michael Hanson This podcast was recorded on 15 August 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4773440-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/KAL-1-TXGZRLBR for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Today we were thrilled to welcome back Erik Milito, President of the National Ocean Industries Association (NOIA). Erik has served as President of NOIA since 2019 following 17 years in several leadership roles at the American Petroleum Institute and prior experience as an attorney in the Solicitor's Office of the US Department of the Interior. Erik served on active duty in the US Army as a Judge Advocate from 1995 to 2000 and continued his service in the US Army Reserve from 2000 to 2004. NOIA's mission is to advance and promote the interests of the offshore oil, gas, wind and ocean minerals industries. We last hosted Erik on COBT in April 2021 (episode linked here) and were excited to reconnect for an update on offshore activity. In the discussion, Erik provides an overview of the NOIA's role to promote favorable policies related to offshore leasing, permitting, and regulation covering all flavors of energy including oil and gas, wind, carbon capture and storage and minerals. We start the conversation with Erik reminding us of the importance of the Gulf of Mexico as a booming region for the country and then dig into the challenges of offshore wind as an emerging sector. We cover the fascinating contrast of lease sales in the current administration compared to historical numbers. As the episode title mentions, this will be the first year since 1958 without a single federal offshore lease sale. We touch on advances in technology as current operations explore deeper depths / higher pressures in recent years, and we dig into how Erik sees the offshore wind industry developing from the services standpoint over the next couple of years. We also cover the complex issues around insurance and decommissioning platforms. We move on to discuss the positive relationship with the fishing industry and the significant role that the coastal state governments play in the world of the NOIA. Erik shares his perspective on Washington DC, the current climate given the election, and his sense of the public's mood and attitude towards the various sources of energy that the NOIA is involved in. We wrap up the discussion by getting Erik's thoughts on the progress of carbon capture over the last few years and the slower pace of offshore versus onshore CO2 projects and he urges that more progress would be possible with the cooperation of the government around permitting and regulatory support. We end the discussion with the areas that Erik is most optimistic about for the NOIA's membership which includes opportunities in the Gulf of Mexico.  It was a fantastic conversation. Thanks to Erik for joining us! Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting that trading in markets last week could be summed up briefly in two words: “volatility & reversal”. On the bond market, he highlighted that the 10-year bond yield was trading modestly lower due to a cooler-than-expected PPI. He also noted that this was a heavy economic reporting week with July CPI set to report on Wednesday and Initial Jobless Claims & Retail Sales on Thursday. On crude oil, he highlighted that WTI price was down ~$2/bbl. on Tuesday due to monthly reports from the IEA & OPEC showing minor 2024 demand reductions. He noted that despite these two demand datapoints that WTI still rebounded by ~$6/bbl. over the 5+ trading days due to improving technicals (WTI price back above its 50/100 day moving averages) and growing supply concerns (potential Iranian retaliation against Israel & Ukrainian incursion into Russia). He rounded out the conversation by highlighting that 3mo rolling forward copper prices have declined over the last 4-5 weeks (~$10.5k/MT down to ~$9k/MT) due to continued global demand concerns and elevated LME Copper inventories. He also noted that copper prices were getting bid up this week due to a workers s

S&P futures are pointing to a flat open today ahead of the July CPI data. Asian markets finished Wednesday trading mix, and European equity markets continue to climb in early trades. In today's macro news, Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has announced that he will not run in the upcoming LDP presidential election, effectively stepping down as PM once a new leader is chosen. Kishida's withdrawal introduces market uncertainty, with no clear successor favored by markets. While most contenders support monetary policy normalization, the implications for fiscal policy and investor participation initiatives, such as the NISA program, remain uncertain. Analysts expect equities to be most affected, with yen direction influenced by external factors and JGBs by supply-demand conditions.Companies Mentioned: Honeywell, Allstate, Alphabet, Kellanova, Southwest Airlines

Today's July CPI came in below 3% year over year for the first time since early 2021, underscoring chances of possible rate cuts. Cisco and Asian economic data due after the close.Important DisclosuresInformation on this site is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered individualized recommendations or personalized investment advice. The type of securities and investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review a security transaction for his or her own particular situation. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic and geo-political conditions.Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.All corporate names are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.

S&P Futures are flat to higher this morning as the markets awaits another key economic data report. Before the bell today the July CPI data is scheduled for release. Japan's Prime Minister announced that he will step down in September. Iran thought to be waiting on the outcome of the Gaza ceasefire talks before making a decision on an Israeli strike. Boeing is said to be close to an $18.8B deal on fighter jets for Israel. Mars is close to a 30B deal for Kellanova. Elliott Mgmt planning for a proxy fight with Southwest Airlines. PTON is higher after announcing a deal with Google. CAH released an earnings beat while EAT missed this morning. Oil prices have given back earlier gain and are now lower. In Europe, stocks have turned lower.

Overview: Tune into this week's episode of Launch Financial as we discuss a slew of economic data, including this week's CPI and PPI reports, showing signs of cooling inflation, moving towards the Fed's target of 2%.  Show Notes: 

Following a wild week on Wall Street, the U.S. markets have stabilized. However, economists continue to warn of a possible recession, and investors, as well as everyday Americans, are still focused on inflation. All eyes will be on the July CPI and PPI reports this week to show whether it is cooling.  FOX Business correspondent Lydia Hu speaks with Mark Malek, the Chief Investment Officer at Siebert NXT, to discuss recession concerns, the key earning reports expected this week, and the impact the Fed's expected interest rate cuts could have on the economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Following a wild week on Wall Street, the U.S. markets have stabilized. However, economists continue to warn of a possible recession, and investors, as well as everyday Americans, are still focused on inflation. All eyes will be on the July CPI and PPI reports this week to show whether it is cooling.  FOX Business correspondent Lydia Hu speaks with Mark Malek, the Chief Investment Officer at Siebert NXT, to discuss recession concerns, the key earning reports expected this week, and the impact the Fed's expected interest rate cuts could have on the economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Following a wild week on Wall Street, the U.S. markets have stabilized. However, economists continue to warn of a possible recession, and investors, as well as everyday Americans, are still focused on inflation. All eyes will be on the July CPI and PPI reports this week to show whether it is cooling.  FOX Business correspondent Lydia Hu speaks with Mark Malek, the Chief Investment Officer at Siebert NXT, to discuss recession concerns, the key earning reports expected this week, and the impact the Fed's expected interest rate cuts could have on the economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Portfolio construction specialist Vivek Anand explores the latest developments in global markets, highlighting the significant volatility that characterised the past week. He discusses the sharp sell-off in equity markets driven by recession fears and yen carry-trade unwinding, as well as the subsequent recovery rallies. Vivek also examines the performance of DB's quant systematic strategies, particularly Portfolio 365, which experienced a sharp decline on Monday before recovering some ground. He delves into the performance of the pro-cyclical, defensive, and balanced sub-portfolios, providing insights into how they navigated the choppy market environment. Additionally, Vivek previews the key upcoming economic events, including the July CPI and retail sales data and their potential impact on quant strategies.

The Daily Business and Finance Show - Sunday, 11 August 2024 We get our business and finance news from Seeking Alpha and you should too! Subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium for more in-depth market news and help support this podcast. Free for 14-days! Please click here for more info: Subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium News Today's headlines: Tesla pivots to pricier Cybertrucks; halts orders for cheapest version The U.S. uninsured rate hits 8%, a post-pandemic high Former YouTube CEO Susan Wojcicki dies of lung cancer Rate cuts may impact big banks more negatively than regionals, analyst says Citi stays bullish on chips despite sell-off; Micron remains top pick Trending stocks this week as turbulent week comes to an end Catalyst Watch: Eyes on Walmart earnings, the July CPI print, and 13F filings 'Deadpool & Wolverine' surpasses $1B worldwide Explanations from OpenAI ChatGPT API with proprietary prompts. This podcast provides information only and should not be construed as financial or business advice. This podcast is produced by Klassic Studios Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's a huge week here in New Zealand, with one of the most eagerly anticipated Reserve Bank decisions in recent memory due on Wednesday afternoon. The international highlights will include the July CPI report in the US, as well as retail sales for the same period. Investors will also be watching monthly activity indicators in China and a raft of economic releases in the UK. The New Zealand reporting season will start slowly with Skellerup the only company of note set to report earnings. However, it'll be very busy across the Tasman with results from the likes of CSL, Goodman Group, Telstra and Amcor. International earnings highlights will include Walmart and Home Depot in the US, as well as Tencent and Alibaba in China.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news Monday's equity dump is now a fading memory.First up, the latest signals from the US labour market are that there is no rising stress. Initial jobless claims came in less than expected at 203,000 and there are now 1.9 mln people on these benefits. Both are lower than last week and -10% lower than the same week a year ago.This was data financial markets noticed today. Along with confirmation that mortgage interest rates are falling.It is the summer driving season in the US, so petrol prices are important there too. And they are lowish, for them, down almost -10% from year-ago levels. In some places they are under US$3/gal (NZ$1.32/L) at the pump.US wholesale inventories were up marginally (+0.1%) in June from a year ago. However the steady rises recently have ticked up the inventory-to-sales ratio recently, although it is still lower than year-ago levels.And there was a well-supported UST 30yr bond auction earlier today and that delivered a median yield of 4.23%, lower than the 4.33% yield at the equivalent event a month ago.In India and as expected, their central bank's monetary policy review brought no change to their 6.5% policy rate. It has been held at that level since February 2023.Taiwanese exports held steady at about +US$40 bln in July. But that was 'only' +3.1% higher than the same month a year ago. However it comes on top of a steady expansion since November 2023.Later today, China will release its July CPI inflation data and it is expected to remain very low (+0.3% year-on-year). Their PPI is again expected to report deflation.Global shipping freight rates for containerised cargoes slipped marginally again last week, down -3% from the prior week. But they remain three times higher than year-ago levels. Bulk cargo freight rates were unchanged from the prior week, up +50% from the same week a year ago (although that year-ago level was a bit of a low point).We have noted low steel prices recently. But we should also note than both wheat and soybean prices are also low, now down near five year lows. If there is food stress it is not because the cost of basics are high.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.00% and up another +3 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today virtually up +UAS$31 from yesterday at US$2423/oz.Oil prices are +US$1 USc firmer at just over US$75.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just on US$79/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today little-changed from this time yesterday at just over 60 USc. Against the Aussie we are back down almost -¾c at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 55 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68.7 and down -20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$59,562 and up +6.5% from where we left it yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high at +/- 4.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

11th July: Crypto & Coffee at 8

In this episode of WealthVest: The Weekly Bull & Bear, Drew and Tim discuss the July CPI report, Fed policy, the summer of strikes and how businesses perceive geo-political risks. WealthVest – based in Bozeman, MT, and San Francisco, CA – is a financial services marketing and distribution firm specializing in fixed and fixed index annuities from many high-quality insurance companies. WealthVest provides the tools, resources, practice management support, and products that financial professionals need to provide their clients a predictable retirement that has their best interest in mind.Hosts: Drew Dokken, Tim PierottiAlbum Artwork: Sam YarboroughShow Editing and Production: Tavin DavisDisclosure: The information covered and posted represents the views and opinions of the hosts and does not necessarily represent the views or opinions of WealthVest. The mere appearance of Content on the Site does not constitute an endorsement by WealthVest. The Content has been made available for informational and educational purposes only. WealthVest does not make any representation or warranties with respect to the accuracy, applicability, fitness, or completeness of the Content.WealthVest does not warrant the performance, effectiveness or applicability of any sites listed or linked to in any Content. The content is not intended to be a substitute for professional investing advice. Always seek the advice of your financial advisor or other qualified financial service provider with any questions you may have regarding your investment planning. Investment and investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US futures are indicating a higher open as of 04:05 ET. European equity markets have opened mixed, following a largely disappointing performance in Asia. Markets are taking lead from weakness in China with no change in broader themes. Latest US data has little bearing on Fed policy outlook, as July CPI underpinned disinflation narrative, though firmer-than-expected PPI cited as an overhang for the stock market.Companies Mentioned: United States Steel, Cleveland-Cliffs, SoftBank, Arrival, Country Garden

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.Inflation rose modestly last week, as the July CPI checked in at a 3.2% annualized rate, slightly above the June read, but below analysts' expectations. While I don't think this will be enough of a move to force the Fed to raise rates again, the rest of the yield curve continues to increase. The 10-year treasury yield is 4.19% as of Monday, nearing its recent high, last seen in October 2022. If it breaks above 4.25% it will be the first time the 10-year yield has been that high since 2007. Most home mortgages and fixed rate multifamily mortgages are tied to the 10-year, and given the recent increase in long-term rates, these financial instruments are getting significantly more expensive. The average home mortgage rate is nearing 8%. This may serve as a silver lining for multifamily demand, as fewer would-be home buyers are able to afford to purchase homes. However, the increase in both long and short-term interest rates is making it very difficult for multifamily owners to refinance existing assets, many of which carry interest rates far lower than the current market.  Multifamily fundamentals were mostly flat last week, a typical pattern for this time of year. At the market level, weekly growth remains mixed as some metros are enjoying an extended leasing season, while others are declining against a backdrop of heavy supply and soft demand. As this week's chart of the week demonstrated, all MSAs are losing occupancy on an annual basis, yet roughly 15% of submarkets across the nation have seen occupancy rise over the past year. As our industry slogs through a down cycle, it is important to note that not all submarkets or MSAs will act alike. Explore our Research webpage for more insights and resources: https://bit.ly/RadixResearch.

We recap the week that was, including a look at July CPI data, commentary from several Fed officials, the back-end of the Q2 corporate reporting season and more. Plus, we preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Credit cards are great until the bill comes due. And the US economy has about maxed out the plastic. The Federal Reserve incentivized borrowing and the economy is buried under trillions of dollars in debt. As Friday Gold Wrap host Mike Maharrey explains in this episode, the bill is about to come due. He also goes over the July CPI data and digs into some of the ramifications. You can visit the show notes page here: https://bit.ly/3Ov8u0q Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week's economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful commentary. For more information visit https://schiffgold.com/news. TOPICS DISCUSSED -US credit rating downgraded -Moody's downgrades bank credit ratings -How the Fed blew up a massive debt bubble -The bill will come due -July CPI breakdown -Price inflation is down but not out

US equities were mostly lower this week, with most major indices adding to last week's declines. There were few surprises in Thursday's largely in-line release of July CPI, with the headline and core measures printing monthly increases just below 0.2% for the second straight month. More than 90% of the S&P 500 index has now reported, with members continuing to report earnings marginally better than expected (but generally not seeing positive earnings surprises rewarded).

While China's latest price reports have markets worrying about deflation, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing thinks the real issue is what's happening in core inflation against a backdrop of a struggling economy. He also reviews the “immaculate” July CPI report from the US and what means for the Fed and previews the UK CPI report for July due this coming Wednesday. Plus, Caroline Bain, our Chief Commodities Economist, talks about a raft of supply pinches facing commodities markets, from the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative to Indian food protectionism to OPEC+ production cuts. Click here to explore the analysis referenced in this episode.

ESPN just made $2 billion in a deal with a casino company to put its name on their sports betting website and app. ESPN may be adding gambling to their portfolio because traditional revenue streams don’t cut it anymore. Plus, worker productivity is up — how come? We’ll also look at WeWork’s fizzle into likely closure, and what the July CPI means for rate hikes.

ESPN just made $2 billion in a deal with a casino company to put its name on their sports betting website and app. ESPN may be adding gambling to their portfolio because traditional revenue streams don’t cut it anymore. Plus, worker productivity is up — how come? We’ll also look at WeWork’s fizzle into likely closure, and what the July CPI means for rate hikes.

July CPI is out this morning and is expected to show that the pace of price increases is easing. Citi Global Wealth's Steven Wieting discusses. Plus, Disney shares are higher after the company posted a mixed quarter, where it beat on EPS but missed on revenue and subscriber estimates. Citigroup's Jason Bazinet dives into the report. And, demand for weight-loss drugs continue to surge, with Novo Nordisk reporting a five-fold jump in sales for its WeGovy product. Barclays' Emily Field explains.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong dive into the July CPI report and how markets responded to the expected results. How will the Fed view this months report when they meet again in a few weeks? The Biden administration limits investments in China's high-tech sector in another blow to relations between the two economic giants. WeWork went from a $47B darling to possibly bankrupt in four years, how did this happen? Why are colleges spending money like a drunken sailor?

Overview: Tune into this week's episode of Launch Financial as we discuss the July CPI report, which showed inflation gauge rose 3.2%, less than expected. Are you feeling the weight of inflation and increased prices? If so, on what? Email info@shermanwealth.com and let us know!    Show Notes:

Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research Head of US Economic Research, says the Fed hasn't done enough. David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, says inflation could get back down to 2% on its own.Jessica Reif Ehrlich, BofA Securities Senior Media & Entertainment Analyst, discusses Disney raising prices for its streaming services by as much as 27%. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Economic Policy Research Director, discusses the race for the GOP presidential nomination. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news market chatter is building for a Fed rate pause.First up today, the American consumer inflation rate came in at 3.2% in July, almost exactly as expected (3.3%). Base effects and rising rents were behind the tick up, and it marks a halt in the 12 consecutive months of declines. A year ago they were reporting CPI inflation of 9.1% so it is actually huge progress from there and a solid tick for monetary policy positioning, especially as a year ago it was widely predicted the US would be in recession now, and it obviously it isn't.Because this result was as expected, there has been only muted financial market responses. But one is that core inflation is still high even though it eased to 4.7% from 4.8% in June. The bond market sees this as a reason the Fed might keep rates high, or even raise them again. But most others see encouraging signs in the detail that inflation will fall from here. The next US Fed (FOMC) rate review is on September 21 (NZ).US jobless claims rose by +20,000 last week to 226,000. That isn't a lot in such a large labour market but is was more than anticipated. There are now 1.8 mln people on these benefits, a decrease because qualification expired faster than new claimants.The US Federal government deficit came in at -US$221 bln in July, almost the same as it was in June. But it was expected to be about half that. Meanwhile, despite the widely publicised stumbles, it seems that overall the 6500 American banks with a Federal charter are in good financial shape. It is data that supports the regulator judgments.In Japan, producer prices are still rising, but at a slower rate. They rose 3.6% year-on-year in July, the least since March 2021, after an upwardly revised 4.3% rise in June and compared with market expectations of 3.5%. The latest result also marked the 7th straight month of a slowdown in producer inflation, amid the easing global cost pressures. (Japanese consumer price inflation ran at 3.3% in June and their July CPI data will be released on August 17, 2023.)In India, their central bank kept its policy rate at 6.5%, even though their hot economy is now generating rising inflation (4.8%) although mainly driven by food prices.In Australia, inflation expectations fell to 4.9% in August, from 5.2% in July.Container shipping rates rose again last week, this time by another +1.7% with increases across all major trade routes. Bul bulk cargo rates were unchanged last week at historically average levels.The UST 10yr yield will start today at 4.09% and up +8 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$1913/oz and down another -US$2 from yesterday.And oil prices are -50 USc and now at just on US$82.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now at just over US$86/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today -20 bps lower at just on 60.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down similarly at 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are softened -20 bps too to 55 euro cents. That all means the TWI-5 is now down at 69.1.The bitcoin price is marginally lower today since this time yesterday and now at US$29,380 which is down -0.3%. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.6%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

US equities were lower in a Wednesday trading session that saw some fairly large intraday swings, ending near worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing down 54 bps, 70 bps, and 117 bps respectively. No big directional drivers in play ahead of July CPI tomorrow. Preview commentary has highlighted expected support for the broader disinflation narrative. Penn Gaming was up on its ESPN deal.

China's Consumer Price Index is up half a percent in the first seven months of this year.

US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, though the market came off worst levels through the afternoon. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all finished down 0.45%, 0.42%, and 0.79%, respectively. Most sectors were down, with banks, asset managers, semis, retail, software, paper and packaging and food among the worst laggards. Big tech was also mostly lower. Looking ahead, the market awaits July CPI data out on Thursday morning, with the Street looking for a 0.2% m/m increase in the headline reading.

The S&P 500 moved modestly higher on Tuesday while traders and investors waited for the July CPI report. The report, expected to show cooling inflation, is not expected to alter the trajectory of FOMC interest rate hikes, but that may not matter. The summer market is melting up on AI while most market participants sit on the sidelines in wait-and-see mode. They are waiting to see if the FOMC will cause more banks to fail and spark the recession looming in the last 4 quarters. The market is melting-up now, but how high it goes depends on the economy. If the economy can withstand another 25 or 50 basis points of interest rates, the S&P 500 could set a new all-time high. The risk is that rising rates will cause more bank failures and other signs of economic distress exist. The pace of layoffs remains robust, suggesting rotation within the labor market as businesses adjusted to the "new normal".

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the US economy still seems to be exhibiting impressive resilience in the face of global and domestic uncertainties.Initial jobless claims in the US last week came in at a similar low level as the prior week at +191,000 leaving 1.427 mln people on these benefits. This data is still bumping along at all-time low levels. It is an impressive run.The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 6.2 in August from -12.3 in July, returning to positive territory after two consecutive negative readings. This was better than expected and far better than the neighbouring New York survey we noted yesterday. However new orders levels remained negative. But employment levels rose and the price indexes continued to fall back from elevated levels.But American existing home sales fell almost -6% to an annual rate of 4.81 million in July, the slowest pace since May 2020 and below market expectations. This was the sixth consecutive monthly retreat reflecting the impact of the mortgage rate peak of 6% in early June. The median existing-home price for all housing types was $403,800, up +11% from July 2021, and total housing inventory increased +4.8% to 1,310,000 units.Canada's producer price hikes seem to be past their peak with a notable fall back in July. Still, they remain +12% ahead of year-ago levels even if the monthly reversal was a sharp -2.1%.In China, the important inland manufacturing city of Chongqing (population 32 mln) has ordered factories to suspend operations until August 24 to conserve energy after an exceptionally hot spell led to a surge in electricity demand. The extreme heat has led to a huge increase in the use of fans and air conditioners. Chongqing has a high number of factories that make cars and computers, and their shutdown could have an impact on supplies domestically and internationally. Previously, the government had only required that factories cease production during consumption peaks, but the tight power supply-demand situation has become so severe that shutdowns were deemed necessary. Local authorities said that many areas in Chongqing have been experiencing high temperatures of over 44o C.Meanwhile, a major Hong Kong-based lender, the Bank of East Asia, has seen its profits plunge as it provisions for losses from the Chinese property sector. If mainland banks recognised the same reality, it would undoubtedly crystalise a full-blown banking crisis in China - but almost all large banks are state-owned there. This is what makes the BEA result 'interesting'. Shares in companies like Evergrande are now worthless according to fund managers.The EU confirmed its July CPI inflation rate as 9.8% although less in the eurozone. But their core rate - that is, without food or energy - is only 4.0% and in their special circumstances, that will be pleased with that.In Turkey, they are still doing odd things with monetary policy. With inflation running at 80% and rising fast - they cut their benchmark policy rate by -100bps to 13%. Their currency, which was already historically its weakest ever, slumped to a record low (as any independent observer could have predicted) and this will likely boost inflation further. Their current account surplus has turned to a deficit. Harsh “liraisation” measures by the central bank have failed to support their currency. It is just more evidence that the laws of economics apply to autocrats as well.In Australia, their July labour market stats show a jobless rate that dropped to 3.4% s.a. from 3.5% as a further 20,000 people moved out of unemployment (3.3% actual). And that was despite their employed labour force shrinking unexpectedly by -41,000 in the month. (New Zealand's June jobless rate was 3.2% actual.) Australia's participation rate is 66.4%; New Zealand's is 70.5%.Container shipping freight rates are falling faster now, especially for trans-Pacific cargoes out of China. Overall, rates fell -3% last week to be -35% lower than year-ago levels. It looks like American buyers are successfully pivoting their supply chains away from China. Bulk cargo freight rates are lower too, now back into the range that has applied since the GFC.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 2.88% and little-changed from this time yesterday. The price of gold will open today at US$1759/oz which is down -US$6/oz from this time yesterday.And oil prices start today up +US$3.50 at just over US$91/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$96.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today at 62.6 USc which is a touch lower than this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are also a touch softer at 90.4 AUc. Against the euro we have risen slightly to 62 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 71.4, and little-changed.The bitcoin price is down -0.8% from this time yesterday at US$23,256. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-1.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Listen in podcast appCareer advice from Prof GEveryone thinks that was a bear market bounceKim Kardashian and the Jenners have peakedLinkedIn is the next Hinge Dating AppThe time to buy a Rolex will be…Disney Catches Netflix in subscribersListen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.📈📊Market Update💵📉We’re in a recession right now. But I think calling it a recession on the backs of record-breaking growth numbers feels a bit disingenuous. So without redefining the term.We are in a recession. But we also had one in 2020.This one is smaller than the last, and the next one that's likely to appear in 2023 will be smaller than this one as we pull ourselves out of this pandemic shock.That's how pendulums find harmony.A few weeks back we talked about the biotech index breaking above the 200-day moving average. That sector has stuck its landing and started to move higher.Today it was the Small Cap Index doing the same. The S&P is right there and only the Nasdaq 100 has some more work to do.Ryan Detrick, in the image attached, points out that there are some technicals flashing positive signs…The fact that people are scoffing at the green shoots and that sentiment is still disdain for stocks, the FED, and anyone buying or investing could be another wall of worry that this market will climb...The main indexes pulled back earlier last week to their rising 10-day moving average.Then, July CPI readings came a bit below expectations and most stocks just took off.This time, the biggest gainers didn’t come from biotech and software. Last week was all about energy and metals.Lithium stocks ALB, SQM, LTHM, and PLL had a massive rally.Coal, oil & gas names had one of their best weeks in a while.The market reaction to earnings continues to be overwhelmingly positive this season. Semis, Micron (MU), and Nvidia (NVDA) guided down. Both gapped down only to completely recover by the end of the week.Going up on bad news is bullish.In the meantime, stocks that beat earnings estimates broke out on volume and followed through for the most part – TTD, SWAV, STAA, ARRY, GFS, QLYS, etc.The small caps ETF – Russell 2k (IWM) went up 25% in the past couple of months and it is back above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages for the first time since November of 2021.The large-cap S&P 500 is less than 1% from its 200-day moving average.Bearish rally or not, capital is getting put to work, dips are getting bought, and stocks are breaking out and following through.No one knows how long it is going to last.The last time, I thought we had a bear market rally was April 2020 and the markets just kept going higher.I don’t think it’ll happen again but I’ll keep an open mind.My eyes are still on the US dollar and rates. It is nice to see that stocks can go up on bad news and the market is trying to digest higher inflation numbers and interest rates.Arguably the greatest athlete ever will retire this year after the Open in New York. From record-setting tennis to investing in 16 unicorns. Serena is an inspiration.MY FAVORITE QUOTES:As a personTo me that’s kind of the essence of being Serena: expecting the best from myself and proving people wrong. There were so many matches I won because something made me angry or someone counted me out. That drove me. I’ve built a career on channeling anger and negativity and turning it into something good. My sister Venus once said that when someone out there says you can’t do something, it is because they can’t do it. But I did do it.Venture-I wrote one of the very first checks for MasterClass. It’s one of 16 unicorns—companies valued at more than $1 billion—that Serena Ventures has funded, along with Tonal, Impossible Foods, Noom, and Esusu, to name a few. This year we raised $111 million of outside financing, from banks, private individuals, and family offices. Seventy-​eight percent of our portfolio happens to be companies started by women and people of color, because that’s who we are.Women in sport-I’d like to think that thanks to opportunities afforded to me, women athletes feel that they can be themselves on the court. They can play with aggression and pump their fists. They can be strong yet beautiful. They can wear what they want and say what they want and kick butt and be proud of it all.Insights into the Inflation Print💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The WeekCanadian Real Estate is Getting HammeredWe all knew that when the Bank of Canada was going to start raising interest rates the prices of residential homes would come down, but I don't think buyers knew just how bad it was going to be.AN EXCERPT FROM THE RBC MONTHLY REAL ESTATE REPORT:Monthly Housing Market UpdateThe pandemic may not be over but the pandemic-era housing market boom certainly is. Since the Bank of Canada began hiking its policy rate in March, home resales have fallen 31% and (benchmark) prices almost 6% nationwide, including monthly declines of 5.3% and 1.7%, respectively, in July. Most of Ontario and British Columbia have seen even greater drops. And the bottom is likely many months away still as our central bank has more work to do—we expect a further 100 basis-point rate increase to 3.5% by the fall. With the balance of power having dramatically shifted in their favour, buyers will be in a position to continue extracting price concessions from sellers for some time to come.Ontario and BC: from hot spots to… downturn epicentreFormerly overheating markets in Ontario and parts of the BC Lower Mainland have been the epicentre of the downturn to date. Cambridge (-17%), Kitchener-Waterloo (-16%), Brantford (-14%), London (-14%) and Guelph (-10%) have experienced the biggest declines in the composite MLS Home Price Index since the February peak. In dollar terms, the loss in value is striking, varying from $95,000 (Guelph) to $166,000 (Cambridge). Prices are also under heavy pressure in the Greater Toronto Area where the composite MLS HPI in down 7% (or $89,000) in the past five months. The Fraser Valley is leading the correction in British Columbia with the composite benchmark price falling 5.6% (or $65,000) since March, slightly more than twice the decline in the Vancouver area.https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/bottom-still-a-ways.../...🐦 Twitter Thread of The Week 🐦Some of my favorites from this tweet thread:Find your talents, then double down and become the best in the world at it. - Marc CubanTake your time and compound your capital. It usually takes a couple cycles of compounding for people to make it. - @tradermayneUnless absolutely necessary, burning bridges is a losing action. - Sicarious_Don't over consume alcohol, food, caffeine. - Aeyakovenko🔮Best Links of The Week🔮Tencent Rumored Meituan Sale Weighs on Hong Kong, Can the China Real Estate Phoenix Rise from the Ashes? - China Last NightALL NEW Ford Ranger Hybrid SHOCKS The Entire Car Industry! - VelocityPlease Don’t Pivot - Josh BrownInstagram, TikTok and the 3 Trends - Ben ThompsonFlight of the Concord! - Associated Press This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.reformedmillennials.com

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the next risk to global supply chains may come from drought in China.But first up today, there was another dairy auction this morning and prices were lower again, for the fifth consecutive time, and the 10th time in the past eleven events. That means from its recent peak in early March, overall prices are now down by more than a quarter, a bear market for dairy products. They were down -2.9% this time from the prior event, but worse, down more than -4% in NZD terms. If there are any positives, they come from the "at least it wasn't as weak as markets expected" variety. Analysts will be less committed to their early 2022/23 farm gate milk payout forecasts now. Then again, there were some below-the-line positives in SMP and cheese especially, so perhaps they will see this as the bottom of the current market.Elsewhere, global data on offer was also less than positive.Perhaps bucking that trend however was the recovery in the weekly US retail pulse monitoring by the Redbook survey, with good same-store year-on-year growth above inflation and putting behind it the prior week's dip.But American housing starts sagged badly, down almost -10% in July from June to be -8.1% lower than year-ago levels. This was much weaker than expected. Building consent levels were weaker too. It may not be much consolation, but the Americans don't have this trend on its own - it has shifted to a global trend where housing is sagging on all fronts now, and may well do for a while yet.But picking up some of the pace, and perhaps more than expected, was American industrial production in July. June's data was revised up too. This is now +3.9% above year-ago levels (real), and puts behind it two weakish months.Canada reported its July CPI data today, at 7.6% which was as expected and lower than the June 8.1% rise. It is another inflation data point that suggests the peak is passed for inflation. But this is not expected to slow their central bank's push to raise their policy rate.And Canada reported better than expected housing starts for July, so that is a positive for them.The German ZEW sentiment index isn't improving however, coming it at its lowest since the GFC.In China, normally at this time of year we note excessive flooding along the big river basins like the Yangtze. But this year it is the opposite with very low flows and very high temperatures. This does not bode well for farming, not the industry relying on hydro-electric power from their river systems. There is now talk of factories closing due to electricity shortages. Brands like Apple are having supply issues.There are no updates on yesterday's reports China is about to block Australian and New Zealand beef imports.In Australia, an unsurprising RBA set of minutes from the last meeting has most observers convinced they will raise their policy rate another +50 bps again in early September to 2.35%. Some sections of these minutes reflected concerns of downside risks, but the overall tone was hawkish, especially relating to their strong labour markets.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 2.82% and up +3 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will open today at US$1776/oz which is down -US$2/oz from this time yesterday.And oil prices start today down another -US$2.50 at just over US$86/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$92/bbl. These prices are now near six-month lows.The Kiwi dollar will open today at 63.4 USc which is -¼c lower than this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are a bit lower at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we have also slipped to 62.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 71.9, and down -20 bps.The bitcoin price is down -0.9% from this time yesterday at US$23,894. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/-1.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Based on July reports inflation may finally be cooling down, and the labor market remains strong, so how might this new data influence policy changes in the September FOMC meeting?-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ellen Zentner, Chief U.S. Economist for Morgan Stanley Research. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be catching you up to speed on U.S. inflation, the labor market and our outlook for Fed policy. It's Monday, August 15th, at 11 a.m. in New York. Let me start with some encouraging news. If we look at the July readings for both the Consumer Price Index data and the Producer Price Index, inflation finally appears to be cooling. And that should take some pressure off the Fed to deliver another 75 basis point hike in September. So that's the good news. However, inflation is still elevated and that suggests the Fed still has a lot of work to do, even if there's a reduced need for a third consecutive 75. We're forecasting a 50 basis point hike at the September and November meetings and 25 basis points in December for a peak interest rate of 3.625%. Okay, let's look a bit more under the hood. July CPI on both headline and core measures surprised to the downside, and the PPI came in softer as well. Together, the reports point to a lower than previously anticipated inflation print that will be released on August 26th. Now, the recent blowout July employment report led markets to price a high probability of a 75 basis point hike. But the inflation data then came in lower than expected and pushed the probability back toward 50 basis points. Based on the outlook for declining energy prices, we think headline inflation should continue to come down and do so quite quickly. However, core inflation pressures remain uncomfortably high and are likely to persist. For the Fed signs of a turn around in headline inflation are helpful and are already showing up in lower household inflation expectations. However, trends in core are more indicative of the trajectory for underlying inflation pressures, and Fed officials came out in droves last week to stress that the steep path for rates remains the base case. Sticky core inflation is a key reason why we expect the Fed to hold at 3.625% Fed funds, before making the first cut toward normalizing policy in December 2023. Now, let me speak to July's surprising employment report. As the data showed, the labor market remains strong, even though some of the data flow has begun to diverge in recent months. Leading up to the recent release, the market had taken the softening in employment in the household survey, so that is the employment measure that just goes out to households and polls them, were you employed, were you not, were you part time, were you full time, and generally because that's been very weak, the market was taking it as a potential harbinger of a turn in the payrolls data, payrolls data are collected from companies that just ask each company how many folks are on your payrolls. Household survey employment was again softer in July, coming in at 179,000 versus 528,000 for the payroll survey. Now, this seems like a sizable disparity, but it's actually not unusual for the household and payroll surveys to diverge over shorter periods of time. And these near term divergences largely reflect methodological differences. But what's interesting here and worth noting is that these differences in data likely reflect a shift in the form of employment. While the economy saw a large increase in self-employment in the early stages of the pandemic, the data now suggest workers may be returning to traditional payroll jobs, potentially because of higher nominal wages and better opportunities. If the economy is increasingly pulling workers out of self-employment and into traditional payroll jobs, similar pull effects are likely reaching workers currently out of the labor force. And this brings me to one of our key expectations for the next year and a half, which is a continued increase in labor force participation, in particular driven by prime age workers age 25 to 54. Higher wages, better job opportunities and rising cost of living will likely bring workers back into the labor force, even as overall job growth slows. Fed researchers, in fact, have recently documented that a delayed recovery in labor force participation is quite normal, and that's something we think is likely to play out again in this cycle. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Last time Fixed Income Strategist Ellis Phifer and Head of Investment Strategy Nadeem Kassam joined host Chris Cooksey on the podcast (end of June) the dreaded ‘r' word was discussed. In this episode we discuss markets and the economy since then, and if their views have evolved. Conversation includes: Big picture overview for the global economy – Where are we today and where do we go from here? July CPI numbers came in lower than expected (for July) – Thoughts on inflation going forward. Coupled with the decline we have seen in commodities, what does this mean for your rate expectations for the Fed/BoC? Are we in the clear? What market season are we in? Early-/mid-/late-WINTER? Some risks on the horizon that markets aren't pricing in or talking less about. Ideas on portfolio positioning heading into year-end within their equity/bond portfolios. Please subscribe and rate & review the podcast!

In this week's CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, hear from the Private Bank's Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting as he looks at some of the factors that have been driving equity markets higher in recent weeks.  With U.S. core inflation peaking given the softer-than-expected July CPI data reading on August 10, market sentiment may have shifted from “fear of inflation” to “fear of recession”. Tune in to this week's podcast to hear whether Christian thinks the US equity rally still has anymore “room to run.” For more investing insights, please visit www.deutschewealth.com In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany's Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany's central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2022 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

This week the Nasdaq officially entered bull market territory. (0:30) Emily Flippen and Jason Moser discuss: - July CPI and how lower-than-expected inflation fueled a market rally - Axon Enterprises posting record revenue in Q2 - Marqeta founder Jason Gardner stepping down as CEO - Drama between Unity Software, AppLovin, and Ironsource - The latest from Disney, Upstart Holdings, Sweetgreen and The Trade Desk (19:45) Tim Beyers talks with Marsha Barnes, founder & CEO of The Finance Bar, about the mindset traps that can keep people from investing and how to avoid them. (30:15) Emily and Jason analyze Nvidia pre-announcing their earnings, as well as: - Domino's Pizza exiting Italy - A listener's question about Intel - Two stocks on their radar: Sonos and Masimo Stocks discussed on the show: DIS, AXON, MQ, U, APPLOVIN, IS, SG, TTD, NVDA, DPZ, INTC, MASI, SONO Host: Chris Hill Guests: Emily Flippen, Jason Moser, Tim Beyers, Marsha Barnes Engineer: Dan Boyd

US equities posted solid gains this week, with the S&P 500 up for the fourth straight week and the Nasdaq back above 13K for the first time since late April. The 'peak-inflation' theme was the key focus this week, gaining more traction after July CPI and PPI both showed softening pricing pressures. Still, Fed officials continue to push back against the 'peak Fed' narrative, and skepticism over rates and whether we're in a bear-market bounce remain overhangs.

July CPI readings signify that a significant slowing of global inflation momentum is underway, largely due to falling energy prices. Softer demand and easing supply pressures should help bring down core as well. But with natural gas prices surging, Europe may stand out with limited disinflation and a contraction by year-end. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Michael Hanson This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

In this episode, we continue our dive into the data with a look at prices, also reviewing the July CPI report indicating that inflation is cooling. To read this week's Sight|Lines, click here.  The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of Stifel Financial Corp. or its affiliates (collectively, Stifel).  This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.  Asset allocation and diversification do not ensure a profit or protect against loss.  © Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated | Member SIPC & NYSE | www.stifel.com See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

U.S. stocks gapped higher at today's open and held onto big gains through the day, buoyed by signs in July's Consumer Price Index data that we've finally reached an inflection point for inflation. Both headline and core measures came in below consensus forecast, as the question turns to whether the trend has changed. Plunging yields across the U.S. Treasury curve suggest investors believe it has. Weston Nakamura joins Andreas Steno Larsen at the top of today's Daily Briefing to talk about price action across asset classes leading up to and in the aftermath of this morning's report. Andreas welcomes Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, for an assessment of the July CPI data in the broader context and the “evolving distribution of probable outcomes.” What does this print mean for markets, especially as it comes from a month when the U.S. economy added more than 500,000 jobs? And what does the Federal Reserve do next? “It's critical,” as Darius tweeted today, “to have a data-driven process that's able to recognize it in real-time.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

US equities finished mixed, surrendering early strength, but still on track for solid weekly gains. July PPI came in softer than expected, following yesterday's softer July CPI print. Fed officials continue to argue that the bank's inflation-taming work remains unfinished. The big question for investors remains whether we're in a bear market rally or something more substantial. DIS beats on Parks strength.

We look at the numbers from the July CPI print and finally see some inflation numbers heading down!! Some numbers remain elevated, mainly food and shelter, but overall we see some much needed relief. NVDA heads lower on a weaker than expected outlook in the gaming space. What plans do I have for this name and others in the gaming and chip space going forward? Looking for names while the industry they are in are beat down... lots of times we know that great companies are being unjustly punished due to macro, micro trends and simply being out of favor. DON'T let the market scare you out of long term winners and build a position while they are beat down! Some names are worth the wait! Week 33 brings a week of REITs to vote on: Week 33 INVESTING CHALLENGE on "Let it Grow Investing - podcast" on Facebook! FB GROUP: https://www.facebook.com/groups/3149013668660459/ 1. SPG Simon Property Group 2. PLD Prologis 3. MPW Medical Properties Trust 4. VTR Ventas 5. IIPR Innovative Industrial Properties ***Not investing advice, simply what I am looking to do in my own portfolio while understanding my risks, timeline, age, income, debt and other factors!!*** As always, thank you for continuing to support the page and podcast, by liking, subscribing and sharing! FB GROUP: https://www.facebook.com/groups/3149013668660459/ E-Trade Referral code https://refer.etrade.net/jsebastian1987 https://accounts.binance.us/en/register?ref=53539239 Use my referral link https://crypto.com/app/3jsnadjrsq to sign up for Crypto.com and we both get $25 USD. Open an account on webull, make a deposit and get a free share valued between $8-$2000!! https://a.webull.com/iq6NLY31wXgKyPlM1g https://www.marketbeat.com/market-data/low-pe-growth-stocks/ If anyone is reading down here, you are the real MVP!! Thanks for your support and making our community a better place and for making me a better investor. I hope you've learned something; I certainly have! Let's get out there and "LET IT GROW"! --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/letitgrow/support

Vince Cignarella, Global Macro Strategist with Bloomberg News, discusses the July CPI report. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza, discusses CPI and the economy. Keith Krach, former Under Secretary of State for Economic, Growth, Energy, and the Environment, and founder of Krach Institute for Tech Diplomacy, discusses the supply chain and economy as well as semiconductor production in the US. Jeffrey Cleveland, director and Chief Economist at Payden & Rygel, talks about the economy, inflation, and whether or not we're in a recession. Rob Barnett, Senior Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses energy prices, CPI, and the Inflation Reduction Act and its impact on energy. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss the July CPI report and what it means for credit spreads. Other topics include, market technicals, fundaments, and the near-term impact of quantitative tightening.

US equities finished notably higher in Wednesday trading on the back of a cooler July inflation print; Dow Jones, S&P500 and the Nasdaq jumping 163 basis points, 213 basis points, and 289 basis points respectively. Treasuries were mostly stronger with the curve steepening (though the front end remained well above 3%). July CPI surprised to the downside on both headline and core measures, with the year-over-year increase dropping to 8.5% from June's 9.1% pace. Fed speakers continued to push back against hopes for a dovish policy pivot. Still some concern that the bear market bounce may be running out of steam, particularly given an earnings reset risk.

(0:58) - Wednesday's show begins with a conversation about the July CPI data, which came in below expectations and showed inflation finally beginning to ease.(12:20) - Diving further into the CPI report, specifically how it affects housing and how it will impact the Fed's next policy decision.(23:22) - Estate planning attorney Todd Lutsky of Cushing & Dolan joined the show for another edition of "Ask Todd".

U.S. stocks extended losses Tuesday as investors assessed earnings and prepared for a key inflation report due out Wednesday.

U.S. stocks extended losses Tuesday as investors assessed earnings and prepared for a key inflation report due out Wednesday.

Listen in podcast app- stock markets might have bottomed- nobody is above the law (unless they’re a Clinton)- Inflation Reduction Bill Takes on Climate Change- Apple bends the knee to the CCP- Sports are just around the corner!!Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.📈📊Market Update💵📉Good morning. It is nice to see 30 year mortgage rates back below 5 percent. They ticked up near 6 percent and 13 year highs a few weeks back.The S&P and Nasdaq 100 are still well below their 200 day moving averages but moving up and on a mission to touch them it seems from below.I am rooting for us to capture the 200-day moving averages. The first ‘growth’ index to do that is biotech, but it was also the first and hardest hit tech index on the way down.The good news is that people are still out there buying technology stocks… In June it looked like that would never happen again. So many technology stocks have rallied 50 percent and are still well below their 200-day moving averages so I would not be surprised to see a continued rally but would also expect some chop and some blowups. The typical bear market rally is a 50% to 61.8% retracement from the last major high. For the S&P 500 (SPY) that would mean 410-420. It is not far from there. In the meantime, some of the most shorted stocks have staged monstrous short squeezes. Such price action often precedes overall market pullbacks.The job numbers last Friday surprised everyone. Why does it matter? The market rally in the past month or so has been mainly based on the assumption that the worst of inflation is behind us and the Fed’s tightening is not going to be as aggressive in the future. This assumption might turn out to be a bit premature. We will know soon enough. July CPI readings come out on tomorrow morning. As usual, we will be paying attention to how the market reacts to it; not to the numbers themselves.Otherwise, the recent rally has been fuelled by government spending (clean energy, semiconductor bills), acquisitions (especially in the biotech field), and general improvement in market sentiment – most earnings received a favorable market reaction this season. Let’s see if those catalysts will be strong enough to fight a hawkish Fed.Small Cap Break Out:Small-caps are breaking out to new 4-month highs relative to Large-caps.This underperformance in Small-caps began in Q1 2021 which, among other things, sparked the beginning of this bear market.This week would mark the 18-month point, if a bear market is even something we're still in.This kind of outperformance from Small-caps is not something we've seen over the past 18-months.And as usual, for me it's less about "what" is happening, and more about "where" it's happening.Small-caps are getting this outperformance going at exactly the 61.8% retracement of the entire rally from the ETFs inception in the Spring of 2000.We saw a decade of Small-cap outperformance followed by a decade of underperformance.What's the next decade look like?Is this a new trend that's just getting started?💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The WeekANTI INFLATION INFLATION BILL: Climate So while spending and capital incentives are rarely anti inflationary, the inflation reduction act is the largest investment in carbon reduction ever for any country on the planet.Nearly $3.5 trillion in cumulative capital investment the bill will drive in new American energy supply infrastructure over the next decade...It’s incredible to see America continuously challenge and iterate on what europe thinks is best policy.There are ZERO carbon taxes and hundreds of billions in incentives. THIS is how you save the future. Technology and investment with out the penalties.The Act would:1. Cut annual emissions in 2030 by an additional ~1 billion tons below current policy (incl. Infrastr Law)2. Do about two-thirds of the remaining work needed to close the gap between current policy and the nation’s 2030 climate goal (to get to at least 50% below 2005 levels)3. drive down the cost of adopting clean energy and other climate solutions across the nation, making it easier for executive agencies, state and local governments, and private sector leaders to increase their ambitions and help close the remaining 0.5 billion ton gap left.4. Reduce cumulative GHG emissions by about 6.3 billion tons over the next decade (retaining about 80% of the cumulative emissions impact of the House-passed Build Back Better Act btw).The Inflation Reduction Act cuts US emissions primarily by making clean energy cheap, through tax credits, grants, rebates, and loan programs that will make it easier for households, businesses, and utilities to electrify and adopt clean energy, clean fuels, and clean vehicles.Subsidies and tax credits will accelerate deployment of two trends already well underway: the transition to clean electricity and electric vehicles. Those two sectors contribute ~360 Mt and ~280 Mt respectively to 2030 emissions reductions.The Act also incentivizes installation of efficiency upgrades and carbon capture in industrial sectors, contributing ~130 Mt of reductions. This bill's CCS tax credits make CO2 capture truly viable in the highest emitting industries, incl. refineries, cement & steel (plus power).Rebates, tax credits and grants to spur electrification & efficiency in buildings; reductions in oil & gas sector methane pollution spurred by the methane fee & grants; and funding to improve forest/ag conservation & carbon sequestration also contribute ~210 Mt collectively.Some charts from repeat project:What Happens If Bonds Keep Rallying?See what happens when the bond market isn't crashing every day?Growth stocks can actually catch a bid.And we've seen quite the move already. The average stock in the Nasdaq is up over 37% off its lows.So just imagine what they would do if rates really correct?In the upper pane we have the US 10-year yield. In black below we have the ratio of Large-cap Growth vs Large-cap Value.Notice how the black line drops (Growth outperforms) when rates are correcting.The way I see it, sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market. If Growth was the leader during the initial bounce (while rates fell), will we see some rotation into some of the more value-oriented areas?It doesn't have to happen tomorrow. But sector rotation would likely coincide with a change in the trend for rates.🐦 Twitter Thread of The Week 🐦MSTR and Saylor are splitting as the long time CEO and founder departs to promote bitcoin full time.Chris Bloomstran breaks down $MSTR’s latest quarter. And its not good. TLDR: SELL MSTR it’s going to zero.🔮Best Links of The Week🔮Messaging: the Bottleneck for Web3Why the market is bouncing - Reformed BrokerHootsuite to lay off 30% of staff - BNNBerkshire Hathaway's Q2 2022 Results - Rational Walk This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.reformedmillennials.com

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the NZD has leaped, and an aggressive risk appetite is back in favour on equity markets, as the perception grows that the global inflation surge is past its peak and will ease from here. But so far, the bond market isn't so sure and seems to be sitting this one out.Triggering the sudden mood change was an unexpected easing in the American CPI inflation rate.Analysts had expected the American headline inflation rate to ease from 9.7% in June to 8.7% in July. But it actually came in under that, at 8.5%. This was largely because petrol prices have retreated more than expected. But food prices haven't shown the same retreat. So their 'core' inflation rate (headline, less food and energy) is unchanged at 5.9% year-on-year.Equity markets like this news because it might mean the US Fed will take its foot off the rate-rising accelerator sooner. That does seem unlikely any time soon, however.But in a building worry, American wholesale inventories keep on rising, up by +US$182 bln in the year to June, which is a +25% surge. But to be fair, sales have risen sharply too on a nominal basis (+20%), so the inventory-to-sales ratio, while higher, isn't yet out of range.US mortgage applications rose marginally last week because there was a +3.5% jump in refinancing, offset by a -1.4% fall in those wanting to buy a home. Meanwhile, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased 4 bps to 5.47%.We have noted it before, but the spectacular budget repair by the US Government has extended into July, although slowing somewhat. In July 2021 they had a -US$302 bln deficit. This July it was -US$211 bln, a 30% improvement.Also helping the mood in financial markets was a short statement from the Chinese military saying they have completed their exercises around Taiwan.China's annual inflation rate rose to 2.7% in July from 2.5% in June, but this was below market forecasts of 2.9% for July. Even so, this was the fastest rise in consumer prices there since July 2020, mainly due to a surge in food prices with cost of pork bouncing back sharply. Beef prices held, but sheep meat prices fell sharply. Milk prices are stable.Meanwhile, China's producer price inflation eased to a 17-month low of 4.2% in July, an easing from 6.1% in June and less than market consensus of 4.8% for July. The latest figure represented the 19th straight month of slowing producer price rises, from a drop in raw material costs as construction activity slowed.Germany confirmed its July CPI inflation rate and it held at 7.5%, 8.5% on an EU harmonised basis. Given the Russian energy threats, this is actually a very creditable outcome for them.The EU's ban on Russian coal that begins very soon will boost their demand for imports from other countries like Indonesia and Australia. Coal prices are at historic highs.And shipping costs for mid-size oil tankers from the US Gulf to Europe are near the highest levels since early in the pandemic as energy flows change rapidly.In Australia, they are preparing for a record winter grain harvest. This comes at a lucky time for them as international demand is rising just as international supply is constrained because of war and drought.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 2.78% and -2 bps lower than this time yesterday. Wall Street is up in its Wednesday trade with the S&P500 up a strong +2.0% from this time yesterday. The price of gold will open today at US$1796/oz which is up another +US$2/oz from this time yesterday.And oil prices start up +US$1.50bbl from this time yesterday at just over US$91.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$97.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today at 64.3 USc which is an overnight jump of +1½c from this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are up +¼c at 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we are +¾c higher at 62.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 72.3, up +110 bps and now well above the tight range we have been in for the past month - in fact, our highest in more than three months.The bitcoin price has moved up from this time yesterday, up +3.9% to US$23,929. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just over +/-3.3%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

This episode is also available as a blog post: http://confoundedinterest.net/2022/08/10/what-biden-meant-when-he-said-zero-inflation-july-cpi-rose-0-in-july-while-real-earnings-growth-remains-negative-and-rent-cpi-soars/

US equities lower in another fairly quiet session ahead of tomorrow's much-anticipated July CPI report. Some overhand today from another warning out of the semi space, this time from Micron (MU). AppLovin (APP) announced an all-stock proposal to combine with Unity Software (U) in a $17B deal.

US equities finished mixed in fairly quiet Monday trading. Stocks came off some morning strength and hovered near the unchanged mark for much of the afternoon. There was little incremental in today's headlines. The NY Fed survey showed substantial declines in consumers' inflation expectations in July across all time horizons. Some weekend Fedspeak included Fed's Bowman saying 75bp rate hikes should remain on the table until inflation declines in a consistent, meaningful and lasting way. The market seems to be largely playing a waiting game ahead of Wednesday's July CPI report.

Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau start their review of the Aug. 1-5 week with a positive if slight 40 basis point return for the S&P 500 (2:15), led by tech, up 2%, while energy stocks fell nearly 7%. Turning to fixed income (3:18), surprisingly strong employment readings Friday raised expectations of more tightening by the Federal Reserve. The two-year Treasury yield, which historically has anticipated levels in the Federal Funds rate, was up 34 basis points week-over-week, 18 bps of that coming Friday, to 3.23%. The high-grade bond market as represented by the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index fell 1.1%. With high yield corporate credit returning a positive 20 bps, emerging markets debt 90s bps and bank loans 1.3%, Samuel Lau noted bank loans are “getting pretty close to that zero-to-positive year-to-date number.” The Bloomberg Commodity (7:57) was down 3.2%. Some of the meats and a few of the industrial metals were up on the week. Much of the red ink was in energy, with West Texas Intermediate crude down 10%. For the week's macro news, along with strong nonfarm payroll and unemployment reports (12:59), Jeff Mayberry took note of positive and stronger-than-expected ISM reports (10:11) for manufacturing and services in July. As of Friday, Jeff Mayberry noted (17:45), the Fed Funds futures were pricing in 69 bps of a 75 bp hike at the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on Sept. 20-21. For the week of Aug. 8-12 (20:05), Jeff and Sam will be looking out for the July CPI report on Wednesday, the July PPI on Thursday and, because Fed Chair Jerome Powell looks at it, the University of Michigan's preliminary inflation expectations survey on Friday.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Daniel Silver to discuss our inflation forecasts that see Euro area inflation remaining elevated in 2H22 in contrast to significant moderation in the US and many EM economies. High inflation, boosted by surging natural gas prices, plays a key role in our forecast for Western Europe to slide into a mild recession in 2H22 whereas easing commodity price inflation should boost household purchasing power elsewhere. The July CPI reports likely mark the beginning of this phase of inflation divergence that also augurs a rotation toward weaker relative European growth. We now expect Euro area inflation to remain at a 9%ar this quarter, boosted significantly by upward pressure on energy and food prices. At the same time, we are expecting a large drop in US CPI energy to lower headline gains to 0.2-0.3%m/m. A moderation in food price pressures should be significant in holding EM CPI gains to 0.3-0.4%m/m in coming months‑‑half their average rate of increase in 1H22.   This podcast was recorded on August 3, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4157249-0   , www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4161891-0   for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

US equities finished Thrusday trading higher, near best levels. Philly Fed manufacturing data weak, and initial jobless claims up for the third straight week. Busy in terms of overseas headlines, though the US market is largely awaiting next week's big tech earnings, flash PMIs tomorrow, Q2 GDP and the FOMC next week, July employment data on 5-Aug, and most importantly, July CPI on 10-Aug. The ECB raised rates by 50 bps vs 25 bps consensus. Russia restarts Nord Stream 1. TSLA +10% following earnings.

The Inflation Guy is running out of ...what's the opposite of "superlatives?"...to describe the current inflation environment. The July CPI report was yet another new high and yet another upside surprise. So what is the Fed going to do in response? And why does the market seem so confident that inflation is about to plunge back to 2%, when it is still rising at the moment?

Gold and silver tanked after last Friday's job report. But both metals have rallied a bit since the July CPI numbers came in right at expectations. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey looks a little deeper at jobs and CPI. Then he goes off-script and addresses some listener comments. You can visit the show notes page here: https://bit.ly/2VSbrR6 Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week's economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful commentary. For more information visit https://schiffgold.com/news.

What's going on with inflation and economic growth? No one knows really. July CPI inflation data points to a slight moderation in YoY growth. Consumer sentiment is waning in the face of the delta variant. Melting together with a successful bond auction this week, the 10 year treasury yield bounced before returning to 1.29%. And so we observe lower highs on the way down within a predictable range.A guy from the Macro Voices podcast from the Economic Cycle Research Institute echoes Raoul Pal, predicting slower than expected growth based on industrial data. Which could set the stage for a correction (~10% drawdown) later on. Maybe.But forget that for a second. Greg plagiarizes Carter Worth, who eyes a Fibonacci retracement in XBI (Biotech) as a buying opportunity. To quote the venerable Carter, it's gotten so bad it's good. But just to make it interesting, Greg buys LABU again (triple leveraged bull XBI).Finally we return to Ethereum, where upward price action has defied gravity. RSI suggests we are still overbought. And if recent history is any indication, we might be on the doorstep of a pullback. But where is support now? Our guess...somewhere around ~2,600.And just for fun, Bitcoin!

Overall, prices rose 5.4% year over year, the same number we saw in June.

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, walks us through what looks like a potential double-bottom in long-term rates and a turn higher from here, where markets will then focus on how the Fed delivers its taper plans.   However, we have seen many false dawns in the rise in rates, and historically, the end of summer has been met with seasonally strong supporting factors for long-term rates. George's view is that if the seasonals get negated this time that could setup rates to move higher into the end of Q3. Overall, it's a potential critical inflection point that we could be going through. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Equity markets responded positively to indicators of better economic growth, while bond markets held on to the belief in ‘lower for longer' interest rates. The coming week is light on data announcements, although July CPI inflation figures from the US will be closely analysed. Alex Burn CFA, Investment Manager and Asim Qadri CFA, Investment analyst spoke with Lorna Denny, Investment Specialist. This podcast is intended for investment professionals, and must not be shared with a non-professional audience. This podcast is for information purposes only and is intended to broaden listeners' awareness of financial markets and no part of the materials should be construed to represent financial advice or an offer to buy, sell or otherwise participate in any investment activity or strategy. The content is based on information sources that are deemed reliable at the time of recording. Architas has no express or implied warranty, guarantee or statement as to the accuracy, suitability or completeness of the information provided. All rights are reserved. Without the prior consent of the copyright holder, no part of this podcast in any form or by any means is allowed to be published, copied or emailed or stored in an information system. These materials originate from Architas Limited ("Architas").Architas is a company registered in England No. 02638607, registered office: 20 Gracechurch Street, London, EC3V 0BG United Kingdom. These materials are not intended for audiences in the United States of America.

Market Analyst at ETM Analytics, Jana van Deventer looks at the main market movements last week. We saw a standout performance from the energy sector, with oil prices in particular posting very impressive rallies and shifting focus to the week ahead and the main event on the local market is the July CPI data that will be released on Wednesday