Podcast appearances and mentions of james egan

In this episode, listeners Ask Us Anything, including how to know if you're bad in bed, biggest turn-ons, and dealbreakers!The LOOSE LADS podcast is a fun gay chat-show from Anthony Gilét (Gilet Slays), with co-host James Egan ('IamTomDop'). The outrageous duo from the podcast Cocktails and Confessions weigh-in on everything from body image to body counts, from dating to death. Each week the pair discuss different topics giving their hot takes and sassy commentary.*Disclaimer: LOOSE LADS contains adult themes and dark humour. With references to sex, drugs and adult language.YOUTUBE:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5Jq542qiQw&list=PLv_SUv_WXV3AXut3Gvr6Gk5rbDTlloDQILISTEN INSTEAD OF WATCH:Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2gpLWuPHlbtpkQvYWSKHXVApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/loose-lads/id1485572510Amazon: https://music.amazon.co.uk/podcasts/f4b0a3f0-d78e-4024-b59c-56e6fd3a40c2/loose-ladsSOCIALSFollow your hosts:https://www.instagram.com/looseladspodcast/ https://www.tiktok.com/looselads/Anthony Gilét: https://www.instagram.com/giletslays/ https://www.tiktok.com/giletslays/James Egan:https://www.instagram.com/iamtomdop/

In this episode, Anthony and James flex their own 'mean gay' muscles as they highlight the parts of the gay scene that aren't as friendly as they make out to be. The LOOSE LADS podcast is a fun gay chat-show from Anthony Gilét (Gilet Slays), with co-host James Egan ('IamTomDop'). The outrageous duo from the podcast Cocktails and Confessions weigh-in on everything from body image to body counts, from dating to death. Each week the pair discuss different topics giving their hot takes and sassy commentary.*Disclaimer: LOOSE LADS contains adult themes and dark humour. With references to sex, and adult language.LISTEN INSTEAD OF WATCH:Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2gpLWuP...Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast...Amazon: https://music.amazon.co.uk/podcasts/f...SOCIALSFollow your hosts: / looseladspodcast https://www.tiktok.com/looselads/Anthony Gilét: https://www.instagram.com / giletslays https://www.tiktok.com/giletslays/James Egan: https://www.instagram.com/ iamtomdop

Our Co-Heads of Securitized Products Research Jay Bacow and James Egan explain how mortgage rates, tariffs and stock market volatility are affecting the U.S. housing market.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript -----Jay Bacow: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jay Bacow, co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley.James Egan: And I'm Jim Egan, the other co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. And today we're here to talk about all of the headlines that we've been seeing and how they impact the U.S. housing market.It's Thursday, April 24th at 9am in New York.Jay Bacow: Jim, there are a lot of headlines right now. Mortgage rates have decreased about 60 basis points from the highs that we saw in January through the beginning of April. But since the tariff announcements, they've retraced about half of that move. Now, speaking of the tariffs, I would imagine that's going to increase the cost of building homes.So, what does all of this mean for the U.S. housing market?James Egan: On top of everything you just mentioned, the stock market is down over 15 per cent from recent peaks, so there is a lot going on these days. We think it all has implications for the U.S. housing market. Where do you want me to start?Jay Bacow: I think it's hard to have a conversation these days without talking about tariffs, so let's start there.James Egan: So, we worked on the impacts of tariffs on the U.S. housing market with our colleagues in economics research, and we did share some of the preliminary findings on another episode of this podcast a couple weeks ago. Since then, we have new estimates on tariffs, and that does raise our baseline expectation from about a 4 to 5 per cent increase in the cost of materials used to build a home to closer to 8 per cent right now.Jay Bacow: Now I assume at least some of that 8 per cent is going to get pushed through into home prices, which presumably is then going to put more pressure on affordability. And given the – I don't know – couple hundred conversations that you and I have had over the past few years, I am pretty sure affordability's already under a lot of pressure.James Egan: It is indeed. And this is also coming at a time when new home sales are playing their largest role in the U.S. housing market in decades. New home sales, as a percent of total, make up their largest share since 2006. New homes for sale – so now talking about the inventory piece of this – they're making up their largest share of the homes that are listed for sale every month in the history of our data. And that's going back to the early 1980s.Jay Bacow: And since presumably the cost of construction is much higher on a new home sale than an existing home sale, that's going to have an even bigger impact now than it has when we look to the history where new home sales were making up a much smaller portion of housing activity.James Egan: Right, and we're already seeing this impact come through on the home builder side of this, specifically weighing on home builder sentiment and single unit building volumes. Through the first quarter of this year, single unit housing starts are down 6 per cent versus the first quarter of 2024.Jay Bacow: All right. And we're experiencing a housing shortage already; but if building volumes are going to come down, then presumably that puts upward pressure on home prices. Now, Jim, you mentioned home builder sentiment. But there's got to be home buyer sentiment right now. And that can't feel very good given the sell off in equity markets and what that does with home buyer's ability to afford to put down money for down payment. So how does that all affect the housing market?James Egan: Now that's a question that we've been getting a lot over the past couple weeks. And to answer it, we took a look at all of the times that the stock market has fallen by at least 20 per cent over the past few decades.Jay Bacow: I assume when you looked at that, the answers weren't very good.James Egan: You know, it depends on the question. We identified 10 instances of at least a 20 per cent drawdown in equity markets over the past few decades. For eight of them, we have sufficient home price data. Outside of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), which you could argue was a housing led global recession, every other instance saw home prices actually climb during the equity market correction.Jay Bacow: So, people were buying homes during a drawdown in the equity market?James Egan: No home prices were climbing. But in every instance, and here we can go back a little bit further, sales declined during the drawdown. Now, once stock markets officially bottomed, sales climbed sharply in the following 12 months. But while stock prices were falling, so were sales.And Jay, at the top of this podcast, you mentioned mortgage rate volatility. That matters a lot here…Jay Bacow: Can you elaborate on why I said something so thoughtful?James Egan: Well, it's because you're a very thoughtful person. But why mortgage rate volatility matters here? While sales volumes fall in all instances, the magnitude of that decrease falls into two distinct camps. There are four of these roughly 10 instances, where the decrease in sales volumes is large; it exceeds 10 per cent. And again, one of those was that GFC – housing led global recession. But the other three all had mortgage rates increased by at least 200 basis points alongside the equity market selloff.Jay Bacow: So not only were people feeling less wealthy, but homes were getting more expensive. That just seems like a double whammy.James Egan: Bingo. And there were more instances where rates did actually decrease amid the equity market selloff. And while that didn't stop sales from falling, it did contain the decrease. In each of these instances, sales were virtually flat to down low single digits. So, call it a 3 or 4 per cent drop.Jay Bacow: All right, so that's a really good history lesson. What's going to happen now? We've been talking about the housing market being at almost trough turnover rates already for some time.James Egan: Right, so when we think about the view forward, and you talk about trough turnover rates, I've said some version of this statement on this podcast a few times…Jay Bacow [crosstalk]: You're saying it again…James Egan: … but there's some level of housing activity that has to occur regardless of where rates and affordability are. And coming into this year, we really thought we were at those levels. I'm not saying we don't still think that we're there, but if mortgage rates were to stay elevated like they are today as we're recording this podcast, amid this broader equity market volatility, we do think that could introduce a little bit more downside to sales volumes.Jay Bacow: All right, but if we've got this equity drawdown, then I feel like we've been getting other questions from homeowners' ability to pay for these mortgages – and delinquencies in the pipeline. Do you have anything to highlight there?James Egan: Yes, so I think one of the things we've also highlighted with respect to the unique situation that we're in in the US housing market is – just how low effective mortgage rates are on the outstanding universe versus the prevailing rate today.We've talked about the implications of the lock-in effect. But if we take a closer look on just how much bifurcation that's led to in terms of household mortgage payments as a share of income, depending on when you bought your house. If you bought your house back in 2016, your income, if we at least look at median income growth, is up in the interim.You probably refinanced in 2020 when mortgage rates came down. That monthly payment as a share of today's income, today's median household income, roughly 8.5 per cent. If you bought up the median priced home at prevailing rates in 2024, you're talking about a payment to income north of 26 per cent. When we look at performance from a mortgage perspective, we are seeing real delineations by vintage of mortgage origination – with mortgages before 2021, behaving a lot better than mortgages after 2021. So the 2022 to [20]24 vintages.I would highlight that losses and foreclosures, those remain incredibly contained. We expect them to stay that way. But when we think about all of this on a go forward basis, we do think that mortgage rate volatility is going to be important for sales volumes next year. But everything we talked about should lead to continued support for home prices. They're growing at 4 per cent year-over-year now. By the end of the year, maybe 2 to 3 per cent growth. So, a little bit of deceleration, but still climbing home prices.Jay Bacow: Interesting. So normally we talk about the housing market. It's location, location, location. But it sounds like the timing of when you bought is also going to impact things as well. Jim, always a pleasure talking to you.James Egan: Pleasure talking to you too, Jay. And to our listeners, thanks for listening. If you enjoy this podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

In this episode, the lads debate the concept of open relationships vs monogamy. James thinks the idea of 'The One' is idiotic, and Anthony thinks people can't simultaneously be "happily married" while still looking for a third on Grindr. The LOOSE LADS podcast is a fun gay chat-show from Anthony Gilét (Gilet Slays), with co-host James Egan ('IamTomDop'). The outrageous duo from the podcast Cocktails and Confessions weigh-in on everything from body image to body counts, from dating to death. Each week the pair discuss different topics giving their hot takes and sassy commentary.*Disclaimer: LOOSE LADS contains adult themes and dark humour. With references to sex, drugs and adult language.LISTEN INSTEAD OF WATCH:Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2gpLWuPHlbtpkQvYWSKHXVApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/loose-lads/id1485572510Amazon: https://music.amazon.co.uk/podcasts/f4b0a3f0-d78e-4024-b59c-56e6fd3a40c2/loose-ladsSOCIALSFollow your hosts:https://www.instagram.com/looseladspodcast/ https://www.tiktok.com/looselads/Anthony Gilét: https://www.instagram.com/giletslays/ https://www.tiktok.com/giletslays/James Egan:https://www.instagram.com/iamtomdop/

In an episode about 'blue movies', Anthony and James discuss the LEAST realistic things about adult entertainment, their turn-offs and why there's gay-4-pay but not the reverse. The LOOSE LADS podcast is a fun gay chat-show from Anthony Gilét (Gilet Slays), with co-host James Egan ('IamTomDop'). The outrageous duo from the podcast Cocktails and Confessions weigh-in on everything from body image to body counts, from dating to death. Each week the pair discuss different topics giving their hot takes and sassy commentary.*Disclaimer: LOOSE LADS contains adult themes and dark humour. With references to sex, drugs and adult language.LISTEN INSTEAD OF WATCH:Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2gpLWuP...Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast...Amazon: https://music.amazon.co.uk/podcasts/f...SOCIALSFollow your hosts:  / looseladspodcast   https://www.tiktok.com/looselads/Anthony Gilét:   / giletslays   https://www.tiktok.com/giletslays/James Egan:  / iamtomdop  

In this episode Anthony and James ask questions like, what defines masculinity? Are you off-put by 'gay voice'? And The LOOSE LADS podcast is a fun gay chat-show from Anthony Gilét (Gilet Slays), with co-host James Egan ('IamTomDop'). The outrageous duo from the podcast Cocktails and Confessions weigh-in on everything from body image to body counts, from dating to death. Each week the pair discuss different topics giving their hot takes and sassy commentary.*Disclaimer: LOOSE LADS contains adult themes and dark humour. With references to sex, drugs and adult language.LISTEN INSTEAD OF WATCH:Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2gpLWuP...Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast...Amazon: https://music.amazon.co.uk/podcasts/f...SOCIALSFollow your hosts:https://www.instagram.com/looseladspo... https://www.tiktok.com/looselads/Anthony Gilét: https://www.instagram.com/giletslays/ https://www.tiktok.com/giletslays/James Egan:https://www.instagram.com/iamtomdop/

Our analysts Arunima Sinha, Heather Berger and James Egan discuss the resilience of U.S. consumer spending, credit use and homeownership in light of the Trump administration's policies.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.

In this episode, James shares his experience with shibari and Anthony rants about self-fetishisation. The LOOSE LADS podcast is a fun gay chat-show from Anthony Gilét (Gilet Slays), with co-host James Egan ('IamTomDop'). The outrageous duo from the podcast Cocktails and Confessions weigh-in on everything from body image to body counts, from dating to death. Each week the pair discuss different topics giving their hot takes and sassy commentary.*Disclaimer: LOOSE LADS contains adult themes and dark humour. With references to sex, drugs and adult language.LISTEN INSTEAD OF WATCH:Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2gpLWuPHlbtpkQvYWSKHXVApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/loose-lads/id1485572510Amazon: https://music.amazon.co.uk/podcasts/f4b0a3f0-d78e-4024-b59c-56e6fd3a40c2/loose-ladsSOCIALSFollow your hosts:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/looseladspodcast/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/looselads/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@giletslaysAnthony Gilét: https://www.instagram.com/giletslays/ https://www.tiktok.com/giletslays/James Egan:https://www.instagram.com/iamtomdop/

In this episode Anthony and James discuss extreme body transformations disguised as "twink death", 'bodies by pizza', and the paradox of body positivity. The LOOSE LADS podcast is a fun gay chat-show from Anthony Gilét (Gilet Slays), with co-host James Egan ('IamTomDop'). The outrageous duo from the podcast Cocktails and Confessions weigh-in on everything from body image to body counts, from dating to death. Each week the pair discuss different topics giving their hot takes and sassy commentary.*Disclaimer: LOOSE LADS contains adult themes and dark humour. With references to sex, drugs and adult language.LISTEN INSTEAD OF WATCH:Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2gpLWuP...Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast...Amazon: https://music.amazon.co.uk/podcasts/f...

In this week's episode, the hosts discuss the quest for pleasure and just what sexual exploits are worth their outcome. James details an experience with double penetration, while Gilét questions why anyone would ever comitt to a Dubai porta potty.The LOOSE LADS podcast is a fun gay chat-show from Anthony Gilét (Gilet Slays), with co-host James Egan ('IamTomDop'). The outrageous duo from the podcast Cocktails and Confessions weigh-in on everything from body image to body counts, from dating to death. Each week the pair discuss different topics giving their hot takes and sassy commentary.*Disclaimer: LOOSE LADS contains adult themes and dark humour. With references to sex, drugs and adult language.LISTEN INSTEAD OF WATCH:Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2gpLWuP...Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast...Amazon: https://music.amazon.co.uk/podcasts/f...SOCIALSFollow your hosts:  / looseladspodcast   https://www.tiktok.com/looselads/Anthony Gilét:   / giletslays   https://www.tiktok.com/giletslays/James Egan:  / iamtomdop  

In this episode Anthony and James are asking questions about DEATH: like, what happens to your OnlyFans account after you die? Why do people clout-chase the dead? And, a horrifying tale about a lover that was murdered. The LOOSE LADS podcast is a fun gay chat-show from Anthony Gilét (Gilet Slays), with co-host James Egan ('IamTomDop'). The outrageous duo from the podcast Cocktails and Confessions weigh-in on everything from body image to body counts, from dating to death. Each week the pair discuss different topics giving their hot takes and sassy commentary.*Disclaimer: LOOSE LADS contains adult themes and dark humour. With references to sex, drugs and adult language.LISTEN INSTEAD OF WATCH:Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2gpLWuPHlbtpkQvYWSKHXVApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/loose-lads/id1485572510Amazon: https://music.amazon.co.uk/podcasts/f4b0a3f0-d78e-4024-b59c-56e6fd3a40c2/loose-ladsSOCIALSFollow your hosts:https://www.instagram.com/looseladspodcast/ https://www.tiktok.com/looselads/Anthony Gilét: https://www.instagram.com/giletslays/ https://www.tiktok.com/giletslays/James Egan:https://www.instagram.com/iamtomdop/

This week Anthony and James debate the authenticity of relationships made on reality TV, whether it's ethical to use your children on YouTube channels and why OnlyFans gays are so cringeworthy on TikTok. The LOOSE LADS podcast is a fun gay chat-show from Anthony Gilét (Gilet Slays), with co-host James Egan ('IamTomDop'). The outrageous duo from the podcast Cocktails and Confessions weigh-in on everything from body image to body counts, from dating to death. Each week the pair discuss different topics giving their hot takes and sassy commentary.*Disclaimer: LOOSE LADS contains adult themes and dark humour. With references to sex, drugs and adult language.LISTEN INSTEAD OF WATCH:Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2gpLWuP...Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast...Amazon: https://music.amazon.co.uk/podcasts/f...Follow your hosts:  / looseladspodcast   Anthony Gilét:   / giletslays   https://www.tiktok.com/giletslays/James Egan:  / iamtomdop  

Anthony & James discuss their pet peeves when it comes to dating and hook-up apps in tonight's episode - out at 8pm!The LOOSE LADS podcast is a fun gay chat-show from Anthony Gilét (Gilet Slays), with co-host James Egan ('IamTomDop'). The outrageous duo from the podcast Cocktails and Confessions weigh-in on everything from body image to body counts, from dating to death. Each week the pair discuss different topics giving their hot takes and sassy commentary.

This week Anthony and James discuss their pet peeves when it comes to dating/hook-up apps. Anthony uses Tinder and hates a man that doesn't know what he wants, while James can't stand that pushy "FUN NOW" Grindr persona.Sign up for Eclipse Dating:https://anthonygilet.wixsite.com/eclipseThe LOOSE LADS podcast is a fun gay chat-show from Anthony Gilét (Gilet Slays), with co-host James Egan ('IamTomDop'). The outrageous duo from the podcast Cocktails and Confessions weigh-in on everything from body image to body counts, from dating to death. Each week the pair discuss different topics giving their hot takes and sassy commentary.*Disclaimer: LOOSE LADS contains adult themes and dark humour. With references to sex, drugs and adult language.LISTEN INSTEAD OF WATCH:Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2gpLWuP...Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast...Amazon: https://music.amazon.co.uk/podcasts/f...SOCIALSFollow your hosts:  / looseladspodcast   https://www.tiktok.com/looselads/Anthony Gilét:   / giletslays   https://www.tiktok.com/giletslays/James Egan:  / iamtomdop  

Our co-heads of Securitized Products Research, James Egan and Jay Bacow, explain how the increase in home prices, a tight market supply and steady mortgage rates are affecting home sales.----- Listener Survey -----Complete a short listener survey at http://www.morganstanley.com/podcast-survey and help us make the podcast even more valuable for you. For every survey completed, Morgan Stanley will donate $25 to the Feeding America® organization to support their important work.----- Transcript -----James Egan: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jim Egan, co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley.Jay Bacow: And I'm Jay Bacow, the other co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley.Today, a look at the latest trends in the mortgage and housing market.It's Wednesday, February 19th, at 11am in New York.Now, Jim, there's been a lot of headlines to kick off the year. How is the housing market looking here? Mortgage rates are about 80 basis points higher than the local lows in September. That can't be helping affordability very much.James Egan: No, it is not helping affordability. But let's zoom out a little bit here when talking about affordability. The monthly payment on the medium-priced home had fallen about $225 from the fourth quarter of 2023 to local troughs in September. About a 10 percent decrease. Since that low, the payment has increased about $150; so, it's given back most of its gains.Importantly, affordability is a three-pronged equation. It's not just that payment. Home prices, mortgage rates, and incomes. And incomes are up about 5 percent over the past year. So, affordability has improved more than those numbers would suggest, but those improvements have certainly been muted as a result of this recent rate move. Jay Bacow: Alright. Affordability is up, then it's down. It's wrong, then it's right. It sounds like a Katy Perry song. So, how have home sales evolved through this rollercoaster?James Egan: Well, you and I came on this podcast several times last year to talk about the fact that home sales volumes weren't really increasing despite the improvement in affordability. One point that we made over and over again was that it normally takes 9 to 12 months for sales volumes to increase when you get this kind of affordability improvement. And that would make the fourth quarter of 2024 the potential inflection point that we were looking for. And despite this move in mortgage rates, that does appear to have been the case. Existing home sales had a very strong finish to last year. And in the fourth quarter, they were up 8 percent versus the fourth quarter of 2023. That's the first year-over-year increase since the second quarter of 2021.Jay Bacow: All right. So that's pretty meaningful. And if looking backward, home sales seem to be inflecting, what does that mean for 2025?James Egan: So, there's a number of different considerations there. For one thing, supply – the number of homes that are actually for sale – is still very tight, but it is increasing. It may sound a little too simplistic, but there do need to be homes for sale for homes to sell, and listings have reacted faster than sales. That strong fourth quarter in existing home sales that I just mentioned, that brought total sales volumes for the year to 1 percent above their 2023 levels. For sale inventory finished the year up 14 percent.Jay Bacow: Alright, that makes sense. So, more people are willing to sell their home, which means there's a little bit more transaction volume. But is that good for home prices?James Egan: Not exactly. And it is those higher listings and our expectation that listings are going to continue to climb that's been the main factor behind our call for home price growth to continue to slow. Ultimately, we think that you see home sales up in the context of about 5 percent in 2025 versus 2024.Our leading indicators of demand have softened, a little, in December and January, which may be a result of this sharp increase in rates. But ultimately, when we look at turnover in the housing market, and we're talking about existing sales as a share of the outstanding homes in the U.S. housing market, we think that we're kind of at the basement right now. If we're wrong in our sales volume call, I would think it's more likely that there are more sales than we think. Not less.Jay Bacow: Let me ask you another easy question. How far would rates have to fall to really incentivize more supply and/or demand in the housing market?James Egan: That's the $45 trillion question. We think the current housing market presents a fascinating case study in behavioral economics. Even if mortgage rates were to decline to 4.5 percent, only 35 percent of people would be in the money. And that's still over 200 basis points from where we are today.That being said, we think it's unlikely that mortgage rates need to fall all the way to that level to unlock the housing market. While the lack of any historical precedent makes it difficult for us to identify a specific threshold at which activity could increase meaningfully, we recently turned to Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise to conduct a consumer pulse survey to get a better sense of how people were feeling about their housing options.Jay Bacow: I like data. How are those people feeling?James Egan: All right, so 31 percent of people anticipate buying a home over the next two years, and almost half are considering buying over the next five. Interestingly, only 21 percent are considering selling their home over the next two years. In other words, perceived demand is about 50 percent greater than marginal supply, at least in the immediate future, which we think could be a representation of that lock-in effect.Current homeowners' expectations of near-term listings are depressed because of how low their mortgage rate is. But we did ask: What if mortgage rates were to fall from 6.8 percent today to 5. 5 percent? In that world, 85 to 90 percent of the people planning to buy a home in the next two years stated that they would be more likely to execute on that purchase.So, we think it's safe to say that a decline in mortgage rates could accelerate purchase decisions. But Jay, are we going to see that decline?Jay Bacow: Well, our interest rate strategists do think that rates are going to rally from here. They've updated their 10-year forecast to expect the tenure note ends 2025 at 4 percent. If the tenure note's at 4 percent, mortgage rate should come down from here, but not to that 4.5 percent, or probably even that 5.5 percent level that you quoted. You know, honestly, you don't really want to stay, you don't really want to go. We're probably talking about like a 6 percent mortgage rate. Not quite that level.But Jim, this is a national level, a national mortgage rate, and housing markets about location and location and location. Are there geographical nuances to your forecast?James Egan: People all over the country are asking, should they stay or should they go now, and that answer is different depending on where you live, right? If you look at the top 100 MSAs in the country, 8 of the top 11 markets showing the largest increases in inventory over the past year can be found in Florida.So, we would expect Florida to be a little bit softer than our national numbers. On the other hand, inventory growth has been most subdued in the Northeast and the Midwest, with several markets continuing to see inventory declines.Jay Bacow: All right, well selfishly, as somebody that lives in the Northeast, I am a little bit happy to hear that. But otherwise, Jim, it's always a pleasure listening to you.James Egan: Pleasure talking to you too, Jay. Thanks for listening, and if you enjoy this podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.DISCLAIMERJay Bacow: So, Jim, the lock-in effect is: You don't really want to stay. No. But you don't really want to go.James Egan: That is exactly; that is perfect! Wow. That is the whole issue with the housing market.

This week, we chat about breaking boy-code; would you sleep with a friend's ex? What about their dad? Find out how far our hosts would go... and how far they have been. LOOSE LADS podcast is a fun chat-show from Anthony Gilét (Gilet Slays), with co-host James Egan ('IamTomDop'). The outrageous duo from the podcast Cocktails and Confessions weigh-in on everything from body image to body counts, from dating to death. Each week the pair discuss different topics giving their hot takes and unfiltered commentary.*Disclaimer: LOOSE LADS contains adult themes and dark humour. With references to sex, drugs and adult language.Follow your hosts: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/looseladspodcast/Anthony Gilét:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/giletslays/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/giletslaysJames Egan: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/iamtomdop/

Our panel of analysts discusses the health of the US consumer through the lens of spending, credit use and home ownership. ----- Transcript -----James Egan: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm James Egan, Morgan Stanley's co-head of Securitized Product Strategy, and today we're going to take a look at the state of the US consumer from several different perspectives.Recent economic data suggests that the US economy is strong, and that inflation is on a downward trend. Yet, some of the underlying performance data is a little bit weaker. To understand what's happening, I'm joined by my colleagues Arunima Sinha and Heather Berger from the Global and US Economics teams.It's Thursday, November 7th, at 10am in New York.Now, the macro data on the consumer has looked pretty strong. Arunima, can you give a little bit more detail here? And specifically, how has consumer spending in the US been trending relative to where it was last year?Arunima Sinha: So, a good place to start, Jim, would be just to see where consumption spending was last year. And there it ended on a strong note. And in the first three-quarters of 2023, the average quarterly analyzed growth for consumption was just under 3 per cent. And that's where we are this year. We've seen solid growth rates in all three quarters this year, with the third quarter at 3.7 per cent. A particularly interesting aspect has been that the spending on goods has actually accelerated this year, with the third [quarter] number at a blistering 6.0 per cent on a quarterly basis.We have chalked this down to labor income growth remaining robust; and we did an analysis which showed that past growth in labor income boosts real consumption spending. Over this year, labor compensation has been growing strongly. So over 6 per cent in the first quarter and about 3.5 per cent in quarters two and three.And so, we continue to expect that that solid labor income growth is going to continue to boost real consumption spending.James Egan: All right. So, if I'm hearing you correctly – good spending, holding up; services, holding up. What about discretionary versus non-discretionary spend?Arunima Sinha: That's a great question, Jim, especially because discretionary spending is 70 per cent of all nominal personal consumption spending in the US. So just for context, what does discretionary include? It's going to be all the spending on durable goods, some non-durables, and then non-essential services such as health and transport, financial services, etc. And what we also saw – that a larger share of labor income is now being spent on discretionary items relative to the pre-COVID phase.So where are growth rates running? Discretionary spending is running strong on both a nominal and a real basis. So, on a nominal basis, we have about 5.5 to 6 per cent year on year, over this year, and over 3 per cent on a real basis. And these are largely in line with pre-COVID rates, if a little bit stronger now.For non-discretionary spending – that's the spending on food at home, and clothing, energy, and housing services – nominal spending has been decent. So, 4 per cent year on year on the first three quarters this year, and real spending has been a little bit less than the pre-COVID rate. So, between 0.5 per cent to 1 per cent. And so, this suggests what we expected to see, which is there's likely greater price sensitivity among consumers for these non-discretionary categories.What do we see going forward? We think that those increases in labor income are going to continue to provide boosts to discretionary spending. And one of the interesting aspects that we found was that lending standards seem to matter for discretionary spending. So, there's been some slowing down and the tightening of lending standards – and that could provide a further tailwind to discretionary spending.James Egan: Alright, that all sounds pretty positive and makes sense as to why we're getting so many questions about economic data that looks very healthy from a consumer perspective. But then, Heather. Other consumer data is showing a little bit more weakness. Arunima just mentioned credit standards. What are we seeing from the performance perspective on the consumer credit side?Heather Berger: Well, as you mentioned, the consumer credit data has shown more weakness, as more consumers are missing payments on their loans. We initially saw delinquency rates start to pick up in loans concentrated towards consumers with lower credit scores, such as subprime auto loans and unsecured personal loans, as those consumers were more affected early on by high inflation and then rising rates.Delinquency rates for those lower credit score loans are near the highest we have on record in some cases. In the past year, though, we have also seen that delinquency rates have picked up in loans aimed at consumers with higher credit scores, such as credit cards and prime auto loans. The weakness in these is not as extreme as in subprime, but the delinquency rates of the loans taken out recently is still relatively high historically. James Egan: So, it sounds like what you are describing is that there are pockets of consumers that are feeling more weakness than others.Heather Berger: Yes, exactly. And so, on the prime consumer side, even if these consumers have higher credit scores or higher incomes, if they took out loans recently, they likely did so at higher rates, and they're really feeling the pressures of higher debt service costs.We can also see some of the bifurcation between low income and high-income consumers. In some of the more detailed economic data, we have a breakdown of 2023 spending by income group, which is a bit outdated but still useful to see the narrative – and what it shows is that in 2023 higher income consumers made up near the largest share of discretionary spending as they have historically. For lower income consumers, their spending has shifted more towards essentials, with shelter increasing the most as a share of their spending from the prior year.Now, Jim, we really think that the housing backdrop has played a role here, so can you explain a bit more of what's going on there?James Egan: Yes, now my co-head of Securitized Product Strategy, Jay Bacow, and I have been on this podcast a few times talking about the role that the housing market is playing in the economy right now. We've really talked about the lock in effect. And when we're thinking about the role that housing plays in the consumer specifically, we're talking about lower income households, more discretionary spending, shelter increasing that's not happening at the higher end, and we think that's the lock in effect.A majority of homeowners were able to get low fixed rate mortgages for 30 years with 3 or 4 per cent mortgage rates. The effective mortgage rate would be on the outstanding market right now is, average is 4 per cent. Prevailing rates are north of 6 per cent right now. So that has helped that higher end consumer who is more likely to be a homeowner – 65 per cent of the US households are homeowners – maintain that lower level.But I don't want to gloss over that entirely. Other costs of homeownership are increasing. For instance, property taxes and insurance costs are up. Homeowners have realized swelling home equity amounts amid record home price growth in recent years; perhaps giving them more confidence to spend, but that equity hasn't exactly been easy to access.Now, second lean and HELOC balances have been increasing; but the amount of equity that's being withdrawn falls well shy of previous highs, which were set back in 2009. And that's despite the fact that the overall equity in the housing market is $20 trillion larger today than it was back then. While the equity itself should provide a buffer for homeowning consumers from ultimately defaulting, these dynamics could be resulting in some of the short-term delinquency increases that we think we're seeing in products like Prime Auto, for example.But Arunima, can you tie a bow on this for us? What does all of this mean for the consumer moving forward?Arunima Sinha: Moving forward Jim, we really just see a solid consumer. So, for the end of this year, our forecast is real consumption spending growing at 2.6 per cent; at the end of next year at over 2 per cent. And that really is tied to our view on the labor market – that it's going to continue to decelerate, but not in any sudden ways.So that's it. We are seeing a strong consumer, and we are going to be watching for pockets of weakness.James Egan: All right. Arunima, Heather, thanks for taking the time to talk.Arunima Sinha: Thanks so much for having me on, Jim.Heather Berger: Great talking to you both.James Egan: And to our listeners, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Mortgage rates aren't directly influenced by Federal Reserve policy. However, the Fed's recent cut likely will have a domino effect on the US housing market, say our Co-Heads of Securitized Products Research Jay Bacow and James Egan.----- Transcript -----Jay Bacow: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jay Bacow, Co-Head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley.James Egan: And I'm Jim Egan, the other Co-Head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. And on this episode of the podcast, we're going to discuss the impacts of a 50-basis point cut from the Fed on the US housing and mortgage markets.It's Wednesday, October 16th at 1 pm in New York.Now, Jay, the Fed cut 50 basis points at its last meeting. What are your views on the mortgage market in the aftermath of that cut?Jay Bacow: We think that is constructive for mortgages and we recommended a long mortgage basis versus rates. The healthy economy and a Fed that doesn't want to fall behind the curve should be good for risk assets in general. We think there's a likelihood of vol possibly falling and that is constructive for agency mortgages in particular.Now it's a positive narrative. But, the valuations matter, and we have to admit that the valuations are not that compelling with spreads on agency mortgages trading near the tights since the regional bank crisis. However, if you look further back, mortgages start to look attractive, particularly relative to other high quality fixed-income assets.For instance, agency mortgages are basically trading at the average spread they've traded at since the GFC. Corporate credit, on the other hand, is trading within a few basis points of the tights since the GFC. If risk assets are going to do well, and we're certainly seeing that in corporate credit and in the stock market, we think mortgages are particularly priced attractively relative to most of them.James Egan: Alright, so relative value for mortgages makes sense, but can you talk a little bit about the technicals here?Jay Bacow: The technicals are where we feel more confident. One of the reasons why mortgage spreads have been wide for the past two years – it's an environment where the Fed and the domestic banks, the two largest holders of mortgages, have been reducing their holdings.Now, we still expect the Fed to reduce their holdings of mortgages, but we think the bank demand is going to turn positive. That's due to not just clarity around the Basel III Endgame that should be coming soon, but more directly related to this conversation – as the Fed cuts rates that directly impacts the amount of yield that banks earn of the cash sitting at the Fed.Now, that is projected to continue to go down as the Fed cuts rates. What's not projected to continually go down very much is the yield on the securities that they can be buying in mortgages. So, the incentive for them to move out of cash and into securities, and those securities likely to be mortgages, is picking up as the Fed cuts rates. And it's not just the banks that are going to be more active. It's also overseas investors. As the Fed cuts rates and the Bank of Japan hikes, the FX (foreign exchange) hedging costs, which is basically a function of the interest rate differential between the two banks is likely to decrease, which means that overseas investors will be more active.A steeper curve is going to be positive for REIT demand. And then over time, as the Fed cuts rates and money market yields go down, those retail investors are likely to be incentivized to move out of money market funds into core funds with higher yields, which will be supportive of money manager demand – although that's likely a 2025 story.James Egan: All right, Jay, thank you for that. But one of the questions that you and I have received a lot since the Fed's cut is: Okay, the Fed cut 50 basis points. Why haven't mortgage rates come down by 50 basis points on the follow?Jay Bacow: Well, so, mortgage rates, obviously in the US, the vast majority of them are 30-year fixed rate mortgages. And so, if you have one, the Fed actions don't impact that. If you have an adjustable-rate mortgage, it will reset – but typically those resets happen every six months. Although you're probably getting asked about the prevailing mortgage rate; and the prevailing mortgage rate – because it's the 30-year fixed rate, it's not a function of Fed funds – but it's more of a function of the yields further out the curve. Although maybe Jim, you can do a better job explaining this.James Egan: So, when it comes to interest rates and mortgages, Jay, as you mentioned, we're going to be more focused on the five- and 10-year part of the curve than we are on Fed funds.To provide a little bit of an example there, from the fourth quarter of 2023 until the Wednesday morning that the Fed cut, 30-year mortgage rates had decreased by 180 basis points. The Fed had yet to cut a single basis point. But, just taking a step back from that cut specifically, mortgage rates have come down significantly from the fourth quarter of 2023.Jay Bacow: Right, and those mortgage rates coming down significantly has improved affordability. But what's maybe a little surprising is that hasn't really led to a pickup in sales volumes. How should we think about that moving forward?James Egan: So as mortgage rates have come down, we have seen an increase in mortgage applications, but that's been driven almost entirely by refinance applications.Purchase applications, and that's going to be what's behind home sales, those have been more or less treading water for the past 12 months. This relationship makes sense, in our view. As mortgage rates have come down, housing remains unaffordable. It's just more affordable than it was in the second half of 2023.But, if you were one of the people who bought a home over the past 24 months, and, to put that into context, that was the lowest number of home sales over a 24-month period since the second quarter of 2013. But if you were one of those people, there's a good chance that you're in the money to refinance right now.Jay Bacow: And that's something that we're seeing in the data. We've talked about the truly refinance indicators on this podcast in the past, and it measures the share of mortgages that have at least 25 basis points of incentive to refinance after accounting for closing costs.Right now, only about one in six of the outstanding borrowers have incentive to refinance. Now, that's up from pretty close to zero at the end of 2023, but if you just look at borrowers that have taken out their mortgage in the past two years, almost two-thirds of them have incentive to refinance.Now, Jim, does that mean that purchase volumes are doomed to languish around these levels?James Egan: No, but the reaction might not be as strong as some people are hoping for. While affordability has improved, it remains challenged. And the lock in effect has become a very popular phrase in the US housing and mortgage markets. And that's still in play. 75 per cent of the conventional mortgage universe still has a mortgage rate below 5 per cent.Even with the prevailing rate at 6 per cent today, the effective mortgage rate on the outstanding universe is 200 basis points out of the money. That's better than 350 [basis points] out of the money like we saw last year. But that would still be the worst that it's been in 40 years.Jay Bacow: And presumably, that is why we have this continually tight inventory.James Egan: Exactly. Now, as rates come down, we are starting to see listings increase, but it's barely made a dent in the historically low nature of the existing housing supply. The existing home sales typically grow in the 12 to 24 months following affordability improvement, but not necessarily in that initial period while affordability is improving.So relative to history, we're actually not underperforming that much from a sales perspective. And we should be beginning that 12 to 24 months sweet spot in the fourth quarter of [20]24. We just started that two to three weeks ago. While we expect existing home sales to increase, we think the growth is going to be modest relative to history and we're calling for 5 per cent growth in the coming 12 months.On the home price side, a lot of this is in line with our current view. So, we think you're going to continue to see the pace of growth slow. It's already started to slow. We think we get from about 5 per cent today to 2 percent by the end.Jay Bacow: All right, so the Fed cutting rates is not likely to cause mortgage rates to drop materially. We expect a modest pickup in housing activity. We expect home price growth to slow, but still end the year positive; and it should be supportive for mortgage spreads versus treasuries.Jim, always a pleasure talking to you.James Egan: Pleasure talking to you too, Jay.Jay Bacow: Thanks for listening. And if you enjoy this podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

One day you're a partner at a small US law firm, where you typically defend medical malpractice actions and have tried a few cases. The next, you're working on a trial that's being livestreamed around the world – and your client is Gwyneth Paltrow. Plus, you've gone viral because the internet is calling you the “Superman lawyer” due to your likeness to Clark Kent. That's exactly what happened to our next guest, James Egan.  Jennifer sits down with James to hear about his experience with the Paltrow ski accident trial and much more. They discuss his hesitant road to litigation after doing legal work in India and at an innocence project.  James shares his intentionality in joining a small firm and explains why making the time for the things he loves (he's also a father and an accomplished musician) makes him a better lawyer. The internet may know James as Superman, but we think Superdad is a fitting moniker too. Prepare to be inspired! If you want to hear more about representing celebrities, check out Lauren's interview with Camille Vasquez in episode 123: https://pod.fo/e/181d56

Last year, as the Federal Reserve hiked rates to the highest levels in decades, there were lots of warnings about an imminent collapse in the US housing market. But home prices have only dipped slightly since then and now they're even recovering, stacking up three consecutive month-on-month gains. Not many people expected the most interest rate-sensitive portion of the economy to be this resilient. So what happened? Morgan Stanley housing strategist James Egan was one of few who was early to forecast that home prices would prove resilient, even as the cost of mortgages went up. In this episode, he walks us through how he sees the housing market now and what it would actually take for home prices to come down.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The inaugural ‘Dawn Walk' is taking place in South Tipp this weekend. It has been organised by the newly established youth club in Cahir, Teen Cave, and a number of other local organisations, in order to raise money for suicide prevention and mental health awareness. It coincides with other similar walks that are happening across the county and country, but the members of the youth group want to do this so that they can continue their work in raising awareness about mental health in the community here directly. Sheila Naughton has been speaking to James Egan and Paige O'Connell from the group ahead of Saturday :

The BitBoy Crypto lawsuit has spiraled out of control quickly. He has been ordered to court again and has to answer to the judge about why he blew off the last court date to go on a cruise. I also covered the lawsuit against YouTuber Piper Rockells mother by 11 minors who were part of the ‘squad'. I also talk about if TikTok is getting banned and the implications if it is. Finally, The Emily Show this week was a wonderful conversation with Gwyneth Paltrow's Attorney, James Egan. Content for the weekTuesday https://youtube.com/live/ODRJVxfOjOM Podcast https://youtu.be/dVIyQaVgOtk Thursday https://youtube.com/live/ul790RaoOtU Connect With Me.Get the Members Only ‘I Have Thoughts Podcast https://www.LawNerdsUnite.comJoin the Text Crew https://www.TextEmily.ComLooking for my YouTube videos? https//www.WatchEmily.comWant to connect with Emily More? https://www.Instagram.com/theemilydbaker I share things on Twitter too! https://www.twitter.com/theemilydbaker

Use code EmilyBaker60 at https://www.GreenChef.com/EmilyBaker60 to get 60% off plus free shipping!Head to https://policygenius.com/LAWNERD to get your free life insurance quotes and see how much you could save.Visit https://thrivecausemetics.com/LAWNERD for 15% off your first order.This week's exclusive interview is with Gwyneth Paltrow's attorney James Egan. You don't want to miss this conversation about becoming an attorney, musician, and internet fascination. James is a tremendously busy attorney and having the opportunity to sit down for a long conversation was incredible. Don't forget to check out James' music on Spotify! ResourcesFollow James Egan! James Egan | Spotify James Egan Music (@jameseganmusic) | InstagramConnect With Me. Get the Members Only ‘I Have Thoughts Podcast https://www.LawNerdsUnite.comJoin the Text Crew https://www.TextEmily.ComLooking for my YouTube videos? https//www.WatchEmily.comWant to connect with Emily More? https://www.Instagram.com/theemilydbaker I share things on Twitter too! https://www.twitter.com/theemilydbaker This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacy

Even if you're deep inside a forest, high atop a mountain, or walking on the moon; there is always some form of plastic nearby. From the buttons on your shirt, to the laces on your shoes; you are literally wearing it wherever you go. You talk into it through your phone, see through it with your glasses, breathe microscopic bits of it from the air into your lungs, and consume particles of it when you drink from some types of plastic bottles. And of course ; you can't get rid of it. Throw it in and landfill, and it will remain there, virtually unchanged, for thousands of years. Throw it in the ocean; and it will kill marine life and birds. On the plus side, there are scientists right here in Akron who are working now, with the aid of a $525 thousand dollar federal grant, to create a new kind of plastic; one that is degradable, more easily recyclable, and made from renewable materials, instead of petrochemicals. I talked to one of them this week, at the University of Akron. Dr. James Egan is a Professor in their department of Polymer Science, and Polymer Engineering, and I started our conversation with one of my pet peeves about plastic. You need to put your garbage into it or it will leak all over the place, but you hate to throw it out because you know it will just sit in a landfill forever. But maybe there's a better way…not just for your trash, but for all things made of, coated in, and suffused with plastic. Listen now.

Even if you're deep inside a forest, high atop a mountain, or walking on the moon; there is always some form of plastic nearby. From the buttons on your shirt, to the laces on your shoes; you are literally wearing it wherever you go. You talk into it through your phone, see through it with your glasses, breathe microscopic bits of it from the air into your lungs, and consume particles of it when you drink from some types of plastic bottles. And of course ; you can't get rid of it. Throw it in and landfill, and it will remain there, virtually unchanged, for thousands of years. Throw it in the ocean; and it will kill marine life and birds. On the plus side, there are scientists right here in Akron who are working now, with the aid of a $525 thousand dollar federal grant, to create a new kind of plastic; one that is degradable, more easily recyclable, and made from renewable materials, instead of petrochemicals. I talked to one of them this week, at the University of Akron. Dr. James Egan is a Professor in their department of Polymer Science, and Polymer Engineering, and I started our conversation with one of my pet peeves about plastic. You need to put your garbage into it or it will leak all over the place, but you hate to throw it out because you know it will just sit in a landfill forever. But maybe there's a better way…not just for your trash, but for all things made of, coated in, and suffused with plastic. Listen now.

James Egan (former seminarian featured in "Manufacturing The Clerical Predator") joins us to discuss... A seminarian tell-all AID - Just a sinner, like the rest of us The Archangel Foundation    website: TheAngryCatholic.com e-mail: mail@TheAngryCatholic.com  

This week we play the audio version of the Documentary "Manufacturing the Clerical Predator" produced and directed by Sarah Pearson from NatesMission.org  Featuring: Kevin Wester - former priest James Egan - former seminarian Thomas Doyle - former Dominican priest and cannon lawyer NatesMission.org website: TheAngryCatholic.com e-mail: mail@TheAngryCatholic.com

To close out Pride Month, James Egan and Dan Perdios chat with Andrew about their upcoming event happening at the Nantucket Atheneum on June 28th at 6:30pm which includes a screening of Wild About Harry , followed by a book signing of A Golden Retriever & His Two Dads.  Free admission. Masks Required. More info at nantucketatheneum.org

The foundation for the housing market remains healthy in 2022, with responsible lending standards and a tight supply environment, but, as the year continues, affordability challenges and a more hawkish Fed will likely slow appreciation and dampen housing activity.----- Transcript -----James Egan Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm James Egan, co-head of U.S. Securitized Products Research here at Morgan Stanley, Jay Bacow And I'm Jay Bacow, the other co-head of U.S. Securitized Products Research. James Egan And on this edition of the podcast, we'll be talking about the 2022 outlook for the U.S. housing market. It's Thursday, January 20th at 10:00 a.m. in New York. James Egan All right, Jay. Now, since we published the outlook for 2022, the market has already priced in a much more hawkish Fed and Fed board members really haven't been pushing back. We've now priced in 100 basis points of hikes in 2022 in addition to quantitative tightening. How does this change how you're thinking about the mortgage market? Jay Bacow When we went into the year, we thought that mortgage spreads looked pretty tight and thought they were going to go wider, and that was in a world where we just thought the Fed was going to be tapering and stop buying mortgages, but still reinvesting. Now that they're pricing in that the Fed is going to be hiking rates and normalizing their balance sheet, mortgage spreads have widened about 20 basis points this year, but we think they have further room to go. This is because a normalizing Fed is going to mean that the supply to the market in conjunction with the net issuance is going to be the highest that the private market has ever had to digest. So, we think that could push spreads about 10 or 15 basis points wider, which is going to weigh on mortgage rates, but mortgage rates have already been going up. They are about 3/8 of a point higher just over the last month. And when we forecast mortgage spreads and interest rates to go higher over the next year, we think this could end up with about a full point rise in mortgage rates this year. Jay Bacow So, Jim, a point move higher in mortgage rates. What does that do to affordability? James Egan The short answer is they don't help affordability. For people who've been listening to our podcast before, affordability largely has three main components: home prices, mortgage rates and incomes. And so, if we're talking about mortgage rates, a full 100 basis points higher, that's going to be bad for affordability. But look, this just reinforces what we're thinking about affordability with respect to the housing market as we look ahead to 2022. In our outlook, we described affordability as the chief headwind to home prices and housing activity this year. Looking back to the end of 2021, home prices were climbing at a record pace of growth. And one of the good things about this climb is we think it's been healthier than the prior times that HPA even approached these levels. We got to almost 20% year over year growth because of the fact that we had an historically tight supply environment, and we had a lot of demand, and that demand was not being stimulated by easing lending standards. Lending standards themselves remained very responsible. James Egan But just because the foundation of the housing market today is healthy, and we believe it is, that doesn't mean it can't be too expensive. As home prices were climbing, mortgage rates continued to fall to record lows, and that really acted as a release valve with respect to affordability in the market. That release valve has already been turned off. Mortgage rates climbed throughout 2021. We expected them to climb in 2022. Yes, we now see them climbing faster than we anticipated, but that release Valve, as I mentioned, was already turned off. Affordability was already a substantial headwind in our call. Jay Bacow All right, Jim. So, we've talked about affordability. Can you remind us where do home prices currently stand? Haven't they started to come down a little bit? James Egan Yes. Home prices have been slowing for two months now. And it's becoming more pervasive geographically. James Egan As recently as July, 100 of the top 100 metro areas in the country, were not only seeing home prices grow year over year, but that pace of growth was accelerating. Five months later, the most recent data we have there is November, it's fallen from 100 out of 100 to 38 out of 100 metro areas, still seeing acceleration. The other 62? They're still climbing. But the pace of that growth has slowed. Jay Bacow All right, so home price growth is slowing. Does this mean that it just continues to slow and home prices actually go negative this year? James Egan We do think that home price growth will continue to slow, but we definitively think it will remain positive. We do not see home price growth going negative on a year over year basis. One of the biggest reasons there: healthy lending standards that we mentioned earlier. That kind of responsible underwriting we think keeps distressed transactions, so delinquencies - really foreclosures. It keeps those distressed transactions limited, and you really need an increase in the concentration of distressed transactions to see home price growth turn negative, or to see home prices turn negative. James Egan One of the other things we talked about affordability that we do think is playing a role in the housing market is supply. The supply market is at historical tights right now. That contributes to the healthy foundation that we see the housing market sitting on. We do think we are going to start to see a supply increase on the margins next year. Existing inventories continue to fall, but new inventories have been up over 30% year over year each of the past four months. While single unit starts might not be climbing at the same pace today as they were early in 2021, if we look at the number of single unit homes under construction today, that's surpassed the number of multi-unit homes under construction for the first time since 2013. We do think that will mean more supply coming on the market next year. James Egan The overall environment will be tight. But we will no longer be able to say historically tight. We will see positive year over year changes. That also weighs on the pace of home price growth, which is why we see it slowing to 5% by 2022. Jay Bacow OK, but Jim, you talked about supply and how that's been picking up recently, but that was based off of a period when mortgage rates are lower than they are today. What is this forecasted rise in mortgage rates mean for your expectations for housing activity going forward for the rest of 2022? James Egan So I think there's a few ways that this rise in mortgage rates can impact housing activity. The I think most straightforward way to think about it is on the affordability spectrum that we've been talking about. It's going to make the carrying cost, the debt service of housing those mortgage payments more expensive for households. And that affordability problem is going to weigh on purchase decisions that, as I mentioned earlier, reinforces what we were already thinking about the housing market this year. It also contributes to a lock in effect - borrowers that have homes at lower mortgage rates, it now increases their opportunity costs to move. They'd have to take on a larger mortgage if they were to move their home, and so it weighs on supply as well. James Egan We see it leading to a decrease in existing home sales. So home prices will slow, but they'll remain positive. We do think that home sales are going to fall. Throughout the totality of 2022 we see existing home sales coming in about 5% below where they'll finish 2021. Jay Bacow All right. So basically, a more hawkish Fed has meant that mortgage spreads have widened out and mortgage rates are heading higher. This has led to reduced affordability, which is also going to cause a bit of a slowdown in home sale activity and a slowdown in home price appreciation. But home prices will still near higher than where they are now. I got that right? James Egan Absolutely. James Egan Jay, thanks for taking the time to chat. Jay Bacow Always a pleasure, Jim. James Egan As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcasts app. It helps more people find the show.

The housing market has seen record home price growth this year. But who does this boom benefit and who gets left behind?----- Transcript -----Jim Egan Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm James Egan, co-head of U.S. Securitized Products Research from Morgan Stanley,Sarah Wolfe and I'm Sarah Wolfe from the US economics team, focused on the U.S. consumer.Jim Egan And on this edition of the podcast, we'll be talking about the impact of the housing boom on America's low-income households. It's Tuesday, November 16th, 10:00 a.m. in New York.Jim Egan Regular listeners of the podcast have probably heard me talking with my colleague Jay Bacow about the record level of home price growth that we've seen this year. And we've talked about it from a number of different angles: how high can home price appreciation actually climb? How sustainable is this current level of growth? What's the aftermath going to be? But today, Sarah, you and I are going to be approaching this from a slightly different angle, and we're going to talk about the impact of rising home values on low-income households. So, what were some of the big questions behind your recent research, Sarah?Sarah Wolfe So there's been a lot of discussion this year, as you mentioned, around rising home prices, rising rents and the extremely healthy housing environment. So, we wanted to look at what this meant for households all across the income distribution and, in particular, what it meant for low-income households. There's been a lot of focus on how low-income households are going to fare as we move off of fiscal stimulus - I'm talking about the unemployment insurance benefits, the economic impact payments - and so we wanted to explore real estate wealth as a potential source of equity for this group in order to make the transition away from government stimulus into a more recovery part of the economy easier or not. And so that's really the focus of this report.Jim Egan All right. Now you've spent a lot of time talking about the low-income consumer. We've got the kind of excess savings narrative across the consumer in aggregate. I know that that is appearing in the low-income consumer a little bit, but maybe not as much as further up the spectrum. Can you dig into that for us a little bit? How is the low-income consumer performing right now?Sarah Wolfe So overall, the low-income consumer over the last year and a half has performed very well, and that's because we've seen an unprecedent amount of fiscal stimulus. We've also seen strong job growth among low-income industries, including retail trade, leisure and hospitality. These are where the jobs are coming back. And we're also seeing pretty strong wage growth for low-income workers. And then at the same time, there was a pretty significant pullback in spending like dining out and other services. So together we got this buildup of excess savings and, low-income households had savings as well, and there was excess savings held all across the income distribution. While this is really significant, it's important to know that the dollar amount of excess savings held among lower income households is not that significant. And they also have a higher marginal propensity to consume out of their savings. So, while the savings is there, it likely will not last long. And so, it's not going to be a longer-term source of wealth, and that's why we decided to turn our attention to real estate wealth. Will this be a potential long-term source of wealth and significant for this group of consumers?Jim Egan OK. So, when you looked into housing wealth and particularly for low-income consumers, what did you find?Sarah Wolfe Well, low-income homeowners have actually seen their real estate wealth increased by roughly $18,000 per household. That's from the end of 2019 through mid-2021. Now, in dollar terms, that's less than the rise in real estate for higher income groups. But in percentage change, it's a 19% increase in real estate wealth among low-income homeowners. And that's the largest percentage increase across the entire income distribution when it comes to real estate wealth.Sarah Wolfe So, there's clearly been a substantial amount of real estate wealth for homeowners, but it leads me to ask the question, can they actually access that wealth?Jim Egan That is probably the question we get asked most frequently. The record rise we've seen in home prices has brought equity in the U.S. housing market to levels we haven't seen. We have data going back over 26 years. We've never had more equity in the housing market than we do right now. Part of that's because this rise in home prices just was not accompanied by the rise in mortgage debt that we saw in the early 2000s, the last time home price growth was really anywhere close to where it is right now. So, the question we get from investors pretty frequently is, well are borrowers going to access this? How can borrowers access this? Are we going to see that same sort of mortgage equity withdrawal, that sort of cash out activity that we saw during the last cycle. And look, the high-level answer is it's difficult to say, given the lack of comprehensive data that we see there. Now, we do have some form of data from the GSEs, we have it from Ginnie Mae, that can show us how cash out activity is evolving, and we are seeing cash out activity really pick up in 2021. It wasn't the case in 2020. Falling rates in 2020 meant that a larger percentage of refinancings were more just straight rate-and-term refinances. They didn't have a cash out component. But we are starting to see cash out refinance activity pick up in 2021 from where it was in 2020. Sarah Wolfe And how does mortgage credit availability play into all of this?Jim Egan We do think that's playing a pretty big role. Now we've talked about how mortgage credit availability is running at pretty tight levels. We actually undid six years' worth of easing lending standards in the six months following COVID, but we have started to see lending standards plateau and they've started to ease from here. Now, how of those tight lending standards manifested themselves in terms of cash out activity? We're actually seeing the dollar amount that is being cashed out, it's lower today than it was in 2019 in terms of absolute dollar amount. If we talk about the amount of equity, the rising home prices we've seen, that means as a percentage of the property value, in 2019, we were seeing cash out refi's remove roughly about 18% of value from the house. That's down to just 13% today. So people are able to access that equity, but tighter credit standards might be contributing to that dollar amount being lower. And it certainly means that the borrowers who are more likely to be able to access that are probably borrowers that are further up the credit quality spectrum, higher credit scores, for instance, perhaps higher income levels as well. So we do think that tight credit availability plays a role. But Sarah, turning this back to you.Jim Egan Once we get past the borrower's ability to actually remove cash from their home or the borrower's ability to tap that equity in their home. What are you seeing households use that money for?Sarah Wolfe Well, a bulk of the equity goes back into the home in the form of home improvement and repairs. There is a smaller amount that goes towards non-housing expenditures like education and apparel. Also, some of it goes towards paying down debt. But the large majority is back into the house in terms of home repairs and improvements.Jim Egan OK, I want to switch gears from homeowners to renters. Rents have been racing higher in recent months. That doesn't seem great for low-income consumers who don't own their homes. But what are you seeing there?Sarah Wolfe That's true. Home price appreciation is great for those who own a home, but only half of the bottom 20% are homeowners. This compares to 80% homeownership among the top 20%. And so while we've seen a rise in home price appreciation, it's coincided with escalating rents for non-homeowners. To put some numbers around it, CPI inflation-- this is consumer price index-- showed that rents rose 0.4% in October and 0.5% in September. And while that might not seem like a big number, that's the largest two month increase in rent inflation since 1992. We also find that low-income renters spend 63% of their income paying rent nationally, which is quite elevated. And we're forecasting that rent prices are just going to keep going up and up in the coming years, making it harder for Low-Income non-homeowners to afford having a home and leaving them at the mercy of rising rents.Jim Egan Now we've done a lot of work on inequal access to homeownership among minorities. How does this factor into the rising burden of rent?Sarah Wolfe Well, on top of the income disparity in homeownership, the racial disparity adds another dimension to the divide between low-income homeowners and renters. Our ESG strategies find that on average, the gap in homeownership between White and Black and Hispanic households is widest for low to moderate income families. This really limits the benefits of home price appreciation for minorities and further exacerbates racial inequalities.Jim Egan All right, so the record level of home price growth, which has led to a record level of equity in U.S. households, does appear to have increased wealth across the income spectrum. But when we look a little bit closer, that's not necessarily the case for lower income households the same way it is for higher income households. And, across the board, the ability of these different households to tap that equity is still a question.Sarah Wolfe That's correct. But I think that it's important to keep in mind that the picture is not all bad. The low-income household is still healthy, and we have the substantial amount of labor market income coming from lower wage jobs like retail trade, leisure and hospitality, transportation, combined with strong wage growth, all helping and supporting income growth longer term for this group.Jim Egan Sarah, always great speaking with you.Sarah Wolfe Great talking with you, Jim.Jim Egan As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcasts app. It helps more people to find the show.

Affordability pressures continue to mount as housing supply tightens. How long will home prices continue setting records and what could it mean for credit availability?----- Transcript -----James Egan Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm James Egan, Co-Head of U.S. Securitized Products Research here at Morgan Stanley. Jay Bacow And I'm Jay Bacow, the other Co-Head of U.S. Securitized Products Research here. James Egan And on this edition of the podcast, we'll be talking about continued growth in the housing market and the current state of supply. It's Thursday, October 7th at 10:00 a.m. in New York. Jay Bacow So, Jim, last time we were on this podcast, it seemed like we were seeing record home prices. However, every month since, we've continued to break those records. What's going on? When do we expect to see home prices start to turn? James Egan The most recent print - and so we're talking about Case-Shiller National here that we got in September, it referenced July; 19.7% year over year growth. We're rounding to 20%. Now, we've set new records each of the last few months, but if we remove this specific chapter in history, the prior record from the early 2000s was a little bit over 14%. So, we're well north of anywhere we've been. Jay Bacow All right. But if we are at a record right now, I thought previously you had talked about things slowing down. So, what's going on there? James Egan So, when we talk about the view for home prices, right? We talk about demand, we talk about supply, we talk about affordability, and we talk about mortgage credit availability. And one of the things we highlighted the last time we were on this podcast was that affordability. Those pressures that were building up there were going to lead to a slowdown in home price growth in the second half. The most recent print, as I said, September - references July - technically, we're in the second half of the year. We do think as we move through the third quarter and really as we get into the fourth quarter is when you're going to start to see those affordability pressures take hold. James Egan Most notably, mortgage rates - look, they haven't increased dramatically from all-time lows in January, but they're still off of those lows. Most importantly, they're not setting new lows. And that means they're not acting as a release valve for this increase in home prices. And we're seeing that manifest itself in terms of growing affordability pressures. The monthly payment on the median priced home is up over $200 since January - that's over a 20% increase. On top of that, when we look at consumers attitudes towards buying homes, they're at the lowest point they've been now since the early 1980s, far lower than they were at any point during the global financial crisis earlier this century. But affordability pressures are just one piece of the puzzle here. There are other aspects that might be keeping home prices elevated. Jay Bacow When I'm thinking about home prices, you know, obviously one of the factors is going to be supply; that's Economics 101. We've talked beforehand about how we're not building enough homes. Is that just the biggest factor here? James Egan I do think that we can't ignore supply. I mean, when we think about this growth we've seen in home prices, the most consistent or persistent part of that narrative has been a shortage in supply. James Egan Now there are a lot of ways that we can go about attempting to size the shortage in supply in the housing market. But two of the things we looked at recently were kind of net supply versus net demand, but also the vacancy rate. So, if we start with that first calculation, we look at net supply in terms of the total amount of single unit completions added to the market every year, the total amount of multi-unit completions added to the market every year, and we control for a small obsolescence rate. Some of the housing stock does come out of use every single year. And we compare that net supply to net demand or household formations. James Egan And you know what? Going back to the early 1980s, those two metrics track each other pretty well. That relationship really fell apart post the global financial crisis. From 2009 to 2019 net demand has exceeded net supply by a total, a cumulative total of 5 million units. Now that's just one way to size the shortage from purely a building perspective. Another way is to look at vacancy rates. Owner vacancy rates right now are tied for the lowest they've been since the Housing Vacancy Survey started getting published in the 1950s. If we were to raise owner vacancy rates to their average level of the past 40 years, that would take over 1.5 million units. So, from a building perspective, we're anywhere from a 1.5 to 5 million units short. Jay Bacow Alright but new home sales will obviously change the amount of absolute supply. But then there's also existing home sales – now somebody's gotta buy a home, someone's going to sell that home. That's also gotta be part of that calculation. How do I think about the interplay between new home sales and existing home sales on the supply front? James Egan I mean, you hit the nail on the head there, right? We talk about new builds in terms of a supply perspective, but they're just one piece of the puzzle here. We have to think about existing inventories. We talk about shadow inventories as well with respect to things like foreclosures that play a role in supply, that play a role in housing activity, that play a role in home prices. But it's not just new inventory that's short, existing inventory is short as well. If we look at the number of single unit homes available for sale, we have that data going back to the 1980s and it's never been lower than it is right now. It would take, depending on how we measure it, 1.1 to 1.5 million additional existing units being listed for sale to bring that number back to long run averages. James Egan So supply is really tight across the board. Now, the pace at which that supply is tightening, that has slowed down. We're not seeing the same year over year decreases that we were seeing in 2020. So, we are starting to see a little bit of a plateau there. We do think that you're going to start to see supply increasing a little bit. But these incredible tights from a supply perspective we think are playing a pretty substantial role in keeping home prices this elevated despite the growing affordability pressures that we've noted both earlier and on previous podcasts. Jay Bacow All right. So we addressed supply, we addressed demand, we addressed affordability. The last pillar is credit availability. James Egan Yes, we think that credit availability kind of plays two roles in both supporting the healthy foundation of the housing market here, but also important for the trajectory of the housing market going forward. Credit availability itself. We were easing, from a lending standard perspective, on the margins from 2013 through 2020 - February of 2020 specifically. Then we gave up six years' worth of easing over the course of the next six months. Lending standards have started to ease a little bit from here, but we're starting from a very conservative place, if you will. That starting point means that we think that delinquencies foreclosures will remain controlled. But the fact that we believe we're going to see easing from here also means that we can see more demand than we otherwise would materialize despite the fact that we're seeing these affordability pressures. James Egan Both of those are positive, but there are reasons to think that we'll see credit easing from here, one of which being the level we're coming from, another being how mortgages are performed. But a big factor here is also what we're hearing out of the administration down in D.C. But Jay, can you kind of walk through what we're seeing from these various FHFA announcements, what the implications could be here? Jay Bacow When we look at the FHFA announcements, there's been a series of them and it's not just FHFA, it's also been from HUD and Ginnie Mae. And they're all aligned with what we believe are the current administration's goals to increase access to homeownership and reduce some of the affordability pressures. And one of the ways that they've done that is they've allowed the GSEs to increase capital via producing more loans that are either for investors and none are occupied where the guarantee fee is accretive to their business via warehousing more cash window loans, along with changing the regulatory relief for doing credit risk transfer deals. And we think the GSEs are going to take this capital and with this capital, they're going to expand the credit box, perhaps in the form of LLPA changes or G-Fee reductions, which will make it both cheaper for homeowners to get a mortgage and perhaps shift the credit box a little bit wider, particularly on the lower end of the credit box. Doing this will help align the affordability pressures and lack of access to homeownership with the current administration's goals. James Egan So, when we think about everything we've talked about on this podcast, from supply to credit availability, what that means for home prices moving forward; look, affordability pressures are real, and they've been building. But a tight supply environment, even if we're seeing it ease a little bit and credit availability easing from here, both of those things should work to keep home prices growing. We think they contribute to the healthy foundation. The pace of growth it will slow from almost 20% today. It'll slow into the end of the year. We think throughout 2022 it continues to slow but remains in the mid-single digits from a growth perspective. James Egan So, Jay, thanks for taking the time. Jay Bacow Always a pleasure. Thanks, Jim. James Egan As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcasts app. It helps more people find the show.

Today on the Creatively Christian podcast is prolific writer and actor James Egan. Host Andrea Sandefur connects with James to talk about the world of theater, screen, and lyric writing. He shares what makes a good story a successful story, and why it is important for us to pursue excellence in our creative work. James Egan started acting and writing in the early 80's, and has enjoyed a long and varied professional career in theatre, film, and radio. He's also written some novels! James can be found on Facebook or IMDB. This episode can also be found on YouTube. Show Notes The following resources were mentioned in the show or are useful resources recommended by the guests. Links might be marked as affiliates, meaning we earn a commission if you buy through the link. The Promise: Birth of the Messiah animated musical [Affiliate]Justus' Lament and Other Short Plays for Churches [Affiliate]Respect for Acting by Uta Hagen [Affiliate]Inkit.com Page for InnerworldChristian Writers Support Group  Credits This show is produced by Theophany Media. The theme music is by Bill Brooks and Andrea Sandefur. The logo is by Bill Brooks. Our wonderful hosts are Brannon Hollingsworth, Lynn Baber, Andrea Sandefur, and Bill Brooks. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, or Instagram.

My guest in this episode is an old friend. Though he has worked in film and radio for over 30 years, his primary passion has been the theater. He's a man who wears many hats, as many of us have to do to make a career, and sometimes that involves wearing a fedora. He's an actor, director, stage manager, playwright, screenwriter and a novelist. He was a founding member of the Santa Susanna Repertory Company in the LA area. He's worked on a litany of productions from MacBeth and The Christmas Carol, to War of the Worlds and South Pacific. When I found myself writing a musical, he was the first person I turned to for help. And, yes, he is a lyricist, as well. His name is James Egan. James is always working on numerous projects at any given time, whether for the stage or film, and always has a novel or screenplay in the works. He has a lot of experience in both secular and Christian theater productions. I invited him to the podcast to gain his perspective on Christian film, and to talk about the similarities between Christian theater and Christian film. ministryofmotionpictures.org

James Egan, aka 'DomTop' guest hosts alongside Anthony Gilét, discussing whether we need to preference labels for preference fluidity, what it'd be like if Cher boarded an Atlantis cruise, the Sherry Pie scandal and how to be a hoe in the midst of a pandemic. (*These tips are for banter, please stay inside!)Follow ours socials: @CocktailsConfessions @GiletSlays @IamDomTop

Warren talks with Brian James Egan about the Civil War reenactors that have been staying at Greenfield Village this weekend. What do they sleep in? What do they eat?

Warren talks with Brian James Egan about the Civil War reenactors that have been staying at Greenfield Village this weekend. What do they sleep in? What do they eat?

On today's Pop-Ups… "Cows Can't Jump" by Philip; "Before Thatcher" by David John Ashfield; "Flat Earthers Around the Globe" by James Egan; "Truth in Tragedy" by Kelvin J Troy; "Wayfinder" by C.W. Evans. For maximum writing goodness, join us LIVE at 5pm UK every Sunday! For the winner of the show, visit https://litopia.com/winners. You can make a Pop-Up Submission here: https://litopia.com/subs Join us live, every week, on Sunday at 5pm UK time, details here!

On today's Pop-Ups… "Cows Can't Jump" by Philip; "Before Thatcher" by David John Ashfield; "Flat Earthers Around the Globe" by James Egan; "Truth in Tragedy" by Kelvin J Troy; "Wayfinder" by C.W. Evans. For maximum writing goodness, join us LIVE at 5pm UK every Sunday! For the winner of the show, visit https://litopia.com/winners. You can make a Pop-Up Submission here: https://litopia.com/subs Join us live, every week, on Sunday at 5pm UK time, details here!

Gay couple denied spousal benefits, but sexual orientation added to charter protections. James Egan and John Nesbit were a gay couple that had lived together since 1948. In 1986, when Egan reached 65, he became eligible for Old Age Security and a guaranteed income supplement. When Nesbit reached age 60, he applied for the spousal allowance available to the spouse of a pensioner between the ages of 60 and 65 in cases where the couple’s combined income falls below a certain level. The government denied Nesbit the income supplement, explaining that “spouse” is defined as a member of the opposite sex. Both men took the federal government to court, and their case ended up at the Supreme Court of Canada. On May 25, 1995, in a five to four split, the majority of judges ruled against Egan and Nesbit. They said that Parliament’s decision to support couples had been based on heterosexual couples’ ability to procreate. Most children, they stated, are the result of heterosexual relationships. However, the court also ruled unanimously that sexual orientation is protected by the Charter of Rights and Freedoms equality provisions, even if not written in as such. The case inspired Toronto filmmaker David Adkin’s 1996 documentary, Jim Loves Jack: The James Egan Story. James Egan died on March 9, 2000; Jack Nesbit less than four months later, on June 23. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.