Podcasts about macro investing

Heather Berger of the U.S. Economics Team hosts Wealth Management Senior Economist and Strategist Sarah Wolfe to discuss what it takes to define the middle class in America today. They break down how factors like rising essential costs and the development of AI are reshaping consumer balance sheets and financial security.Sarah Wolfe is a member of Morgan Stanley's Wealth Management Division and is not a member of Morgan Stanley's Research Department. Unless otherwise indicated, her views are her own and may differ from the views of the Morgan Stanley Research Department and from the views of others within Morgan Stanley.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Heather Berger: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Heather Berger from Morgan Stanley's U.S. Economics Team.Sarah Wolfe: And I'm Sarah Wolfe, Senior Economist and Strategist on Morgan Stanley's Thematic and Macro Investing team in the Global Investment Office.Heather Berger: Today, the K-shaped economy, the middle class, and how AI could reshape both.It's Friday, September 11th, at 10a.m. in New York.The K-shaped economy has been a major theme this year. At its core, it describes an economy where households are experiencing very different circumstances. Those with more assets have benefited from rising wealth, while those with less wealth remain more dependent on income and more exposed to increases in essential costs. But that top versus bottom framing can miss an important part of the story: the middle class. Sarah, you recently wrote about what it takes to make it to the middle class in America. How would you define the middle class today, and how does that differ from the way that households define it themselves?Sarah Wolfe: I think the important thing here is that economists and households define the middle class very differently from each other, and, and I'll get into why that's the case.So if you're an economist, the middle class is roughly defined as two-thirds to twice the median household income, which today means if you're making around fifty-five thousand dollars a year to a hundred and sixty-eight thousand dollars a year, depending on where you live in the country, that is roughly the middle class. And that's where about half of Americans sit today.We've actually seen that number decline, so sixty-one percent of Americans in the 1970s were in that middle class definition by economist terms. Now it's about fifty percent, so we have seen it shrunk. But even though it's shrunk, fewer and fewer households feel like they're in the middle class, and they don't define it by necessarily income or a specific number, but they really define it by milestones, I would say.So do you own a home? Have you been able to build a family, and can you pay for childcare? Have you saved enough for retirement? Do you have an emergency fund? Are you constantly stressed about your bills? That feeling is really what the middle class is about today, and I would say that less than fifty percent of Americans actually feel like they're in the middle class once you start to put that definition around it.Heather Berger: What are the key factors that actually make a household feel financially secure?Sarah Wolfe: I think there's four things that determine household security and stability. The first, of course, is income, stable income. Do you have a job, and do you think you're going to continue to have a job six months from now? We love the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey that asks consumers this.Do you have affordable fixed costs, like housing, childcare, healthcare, and transportation? Do you own assets? This is critically important because if we look at where gains have come from from the last five years, it hasn't really been that much through the labor income channel. It's been through the asset channel, like home equity, retirement savings, are you invested in the stock market, et cetera.And then the last one is this emergency fund and a manageable debt. What is your debt load? Is it fixed rate, or is it revolving? The more of these pillars that a household has, the more financially fulfilled and comfortable they are, and the more likely they are to feel like they've made it to the middle class, but the reality is, is that fewer and fewer households are meeting these four boxes that define the middle class by historical terms.Heather Berger: And what has made that security harder to achieve? Which of those costs that you mentioned have moved the furthest out of reach?Sarah Wolfe: I think these numbers are going to maybe surprise our listeners, but in some ways feel very real to them as well. So if we look at how much inflation has risen since the 1970s, shelter, the cost of housing, has risen 6.6 times more than the overall inflation basket. Childcare costs have risen by 14 times more than the overall inflation basket, and healthcare costs have risen 10 times more.And if we dig more into childcare, we now like to call it the second mortgage. And we're not being sarcastic or anything. The reality is that to send two children to childcare in America costs more than a mortgage in 45 states, and costs more than rent in 49 states.So it's really, this reality has gotten a lot more expensive, and these baskets, these individual things like childcare, healthcare, shelter, that define the middle class, have risen more than the overall inflation basket, and certainly have risen more than income growth over this period as well.Heather Berger: Right. So the overall inflation measure can kind of understate the increases in some of these essential costs. And when people talk about a K-shaped economy, the middle class itself isn't necessarily moving as one group. You mentioned homeownership a lot. How much do homeownership, age, and geography determine who is moving up and who is getting squeezed?Sarah Wolfe: Homeownership is always incredibly important, right? Because it's this large asset that is more equally distributed across the income distribution, as opposed to if we think about equities, and you've done a lot of great work on this. That is the most highly concentrated asset across the income distribution, right? Where the top 20% is sitting on 70%, at least, of equities. So homeownership remains the best channel towards wealth accumulation. Obviously, though, timing of homeownership matters a lot. If we were all so lucky to have bought a home in 2019 and 2020, we got a low fixed-rate mortgage, and we would've benefited from the tremendous run-up in home prices over the last five years, right, over 50% home price appreciation over this entire period. So that's been really important. Also, geography, where you bought a home, did that benefit from the COVID home price appreciation? And then the geography also matters because someone living in New York versus someone living in the Midwest is living with really different fixed costs, realities of fixed costs, and that's also gonna help define do they feel financially secure, and do they feel like they're in the middle class?The other component I don't wanna leave out, though, equities is really important. And we did some work looking at the Fed's distributional financial accounts, and if you look seven years ago, Gen X was doing way better than Gen Y or the millennials were at that same age 15 years ago. But then, because the millennials were sitting on so much equity wealth because they've built up their 401Ks, they really couldn't get as successfully into homeownership, so they had more stored away in equities. They have now surpassed Gen X at this age, two and a half times. It is a tremendous reversal in wealth and in who's doing well, and it's because of what's happened in the stock market. And it's not because they were better savers. It was just a lot of timing and luck. So I would say that our fate is not prewritten, as we also think about Gen Z entering the workforce and becoming wealth builders.I want to dig in, though, to a really important part of the K-shaped economy, though, and that's AI. We can't talk about anything without talking about AI, for better or for worse. And that the common view is that white collar, high-income workers are the most exposed to displacement, and we're seeing that in some of the job numbers recently, right, where tech and financial services are shedding jobs. But your work, I think, is really unique, and it's the only thing I've seen on this that argues that that's only part of the story. So what are we missing about how AI is going to affect high-income households in the K-shaped economy?Heather Berger: Yes. Yeah, I think it's hard to talk about the economic outlook, the consumer outlook these days without thinking about AI. And as you mentioned, I think really the main focus so far has been potential white collar job loss, and this, of course, is an important channel. Labor income is really the main driver of consumer spending. But there are also several other transmission channels through which AI will affect consumer balance sheets.And so ultimately, you were just talking about equity wealth, AI will also affect asset markets, which we've already started to see. It will affect consumer prices and policy decisions, and each of these will flow through to consumer spending and consumer credit performance. And so since different subgroups of consumers differ in the types of goods and services they buy and the composition of their balance sheets, the effects will not be uniform across the spectrum.As we've seen with past innovation waves, AI has the ability to potentially widen income and wealth inequality, or it could help to close the gaps.Sarah Wolfe: Can you dig a little bit more into some of these other channels outside of the labor market? So what is the wealth channel, and how does it filter through to high-income households? And then what also is the inflation channel that we should be looking at?Heather Berger: Sure. So the wealth channel is really important for high income consumers because they have equity wealth that is very elevated relative to their labor income. So for that top twenty percent cohort, their equity wealth is around six times their annual labor income. Whereas for the lower income groups, they're about in line with each other.And so even if the marginal propensity to consume out of income is higher than that out of wealth, for this high income group, asset markets are still a really important driver of spending. Now, for lower income groups and really across the spectrum, of course, inflation will be important as well and will really help determine purchasing power.When we think about the price channel, we're really thinking in two phases. The first is that in the near term, AI could potentially create price pressures. So if we look at areas like electricity and software, we've already started to see that the demand from AI has led to increases in these prices. But over the longer term, we are expecting that eventually AI will lead to productivity gains, and therefore could lead to disinflation.Sarah Wolfe: In which categories are we expected to see disinflation, and who does that benefit?Heather Berger: So we're really first expecting to see it in the industries that have higher adoption rates. And so far those have been industries like financial services, tech. And so if we think about these services categories of spending, they really make up larger shares for the high income group, the older group. And so we do think they will benefit first from that disinflation channel.Sarah Wolfe: I think if I sum up some of the key takeaways, it seems that the balance sheet is more important than income, and it's going to continue to be so. If you look at the top 1% wealth percentile, they're holding 70 times more wealth than the median wealth group, and that used to be 33 times in 1963, right? So that gap between those in the middle versus those at the top has widened, and this dynamic with AI is only probably going to continue to widen that gap, making people feel less and less secure about their finances, making it feel harder to be in the middle class, and in particular, making it feel unattainable to reach the next class, right, because that gap is so large. And so we'll be watching as a lot of these dynamics play out.Heather Berger: Right. So asset markets will be just as important as labor markets in figuring out how the K-shape economy will evolve.Sarah, thanks for taking the time to talk.Sarah Wolfe: Great speaking with you, Heather.Heather Berger: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy "Thoughts on the Market," please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Sep 4, 2026 – We are witnessing one of the most significant macroeconomic shifts in over half a century. US energy reserves are approaching operational limits as they are drawn down to buffer disruptions from the Iran conflict, while the energy sector faces a multi-trillion...

This week's Unholy conversations is a rare interview with Nir Bar Dea, CEO of Bridgewater—the world's largest hedge fund. Bar Dea moves beyond market trends, framing our current moment as a volatile collision between a changing world order, and an unprecedented technological revolution fueled by AI. He offers a sobering perspective on why the comfort of the last several decades has perhaps left us less resilient than the generations before us, urging listeners to view history not as destiny, but as a lesson in the necessity of strength during turbulent times. The conversation turns personal, too: Bar Dea talks about the toll of his own service in the Israeli Air Force, what it's like being Israeli in New York since October 7th, and why he  believes Israel's younger generation might be its greatest asset. 00:00 Intro 01:10 The Iran-US deal and why timing doesn't matter 06:25 Trump as outcome, not cause 09:30 Tough love: why we feel overwhelmed 10:59 Israel's resilient next generation 24:49 The AI infrastructure race — and Israel's gap 27:11 Being Israeli in New York since October 7th 32:54 The hidden cost of IDF service 35:02 Bridgewater's radical transparency culture 41:51 Rebuilding from Nir Oz — a story of hope   Watch us on YouTube:  Follow Unholy and learn more about the pod: https://unholy-podcast.lovable.app/ Join our Patreon community to get access to bonus episodes, discounts on merch and more: https://bit.ly/UnholyPatreon   Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company.

How do quantitative investors adapt when markets, technology and macro regimes are constantly changing? In this conversation, Alan Dunne sits down with George Patterson, CIO of PGIM Quant Solutions, to explore the evolution of systematic investing from the 1990s to today's AI driven landscape. They discuss regime detection, inflation risk, portfolio construction, machine learning, private markets, volatility overlays and the growing role of language models in investment research. George also shares insights from decades in quant investing, including lessons from Covid, the importance of model discipline and why communication skills matter as much as technical expertise.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow George on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to George Patterson and his journey from physics to quantitative investing03:12 - Why multidisciplinary teams matter in modern quant investing04:13 - Inside PGIM Quant Solutions and the evolution of multi asset investing06:03 - How markets and macro investing have changed since the 1990s09:12 - The future of the 60/40 portfolio and institutional portfolio construction12:11 - Private markets, liquidity challenges and institutional investor concerns13:25 - Inflation, commodities and building modern inflation hedges19:33 - Detecting macro regimes using quantitative models23:26 - The hardest part of systematic investing: trusting the process27:00 - Covid, model failures and managing regime shifts in real time30:07 - Portfolio protection, options strategies and volatility overlays32:01 - How AI and large language models are transforming quantitative research40:02 - Fiscal risks, inflation concerns and the changing rate environment44:26 - Simplicity versus complexity in quantitative model design48:05 - Why markets evolve faster today and how models must adapt51:08 - Retail investors, meme stocks and market distortions53:33 - Emerging markets and where long term opportunities may exist55:08 - The future of quant investing and the limits of AI hype57:10 - George Patterson's career advice for aspiring quantsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I'm really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down the latest shifts in global markets, starting with fresh developments in the Strait of Hormuz, then they turn to the inflation outlook, and they tackle the AI narrative, asking whether the surge in capex and demand from mega-cap tech signals a bubble, as markets continue to climb despite widespread skepticism.Timestamps:01:07 - Macro Mondays: Hormuz Moves, Inflation Risks, and the AI Bubble02:02 - Real Vision Portfolio Update and Why April Was Strong02:44 - Microsoft Earnings, OpenAI Backlog, and the AI CapEx Debate04:36 - Meta's AI Spending Problem and Why the Backlog Isn't There07:06 - What Could Actually Burst the AI Bubble?08:18 - Fed, ECB, and BOE Delay Hiking Talk as Hormuz Risk Builds09:24 - Why the Fed Won't Cut Rates Yet Under Kevin Warsh10:19 - Project Freedom: The US Plan to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz11:13 - Trump's Hormuz Announcement and Iran Missile Headlines13:08 - Can Trump's Move Break the Strait of Hormuz Deadlock?14:20 - Why Iran Risks Looking Like the Aggressor if It Fires on Commercial Ships16:27 - Why the Strait of Hormuz Crisis Hits Emerging Markets Hardest19:17 - Why the West Can Still Pay Up for Oil and Food Supply20:39 - Energy Shock, Imported Inflation, and the Real Risk to Western Economies23:53 - Trump-Xi Summit Risks, Global Trade Chokepoints, & China Dependencies26:46 - Solar Panels, Rare Earths, and the New Supply Chain Power Game

As the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran falters, bringing oil flows back under pressure, Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold break down the geopolitical fallout, from jet fuel shortages to shifting supply dynamics.

Geopolitics is still in focus after failed talks between the U.S. and Iran in Pakistan over the weekend and President Donald Trump's threat of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz from today. Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold break down the implications of another oil spike, whether it could bring an inflation shock, and what it could mean for risk assets.

Steno Research founder and CEO Andreas Steno is back with his co-host, Steno Research's head of geopolitics, Mikkel Rosenvold, to break down the latest global drivers in macro. In this episode, with bond yields already rising and central banks under pressure, Andreas and Mikkel assess whether global markets are underpricing the inflation and energy shocks caused by the closure of the Straight of Hormuz.

Steno Research founder and CEO Andreas Steno is back with his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold to discuss the growing risks in Iran and what oil supply disruptions could mean for global markets. Plus, they dissect the state of U.S.-China relations and preview a pivotal week for central banks around the world.

Steno Research founder Andreas Steno is back with his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, the firm's partner and head of geopolitics, to examine the latest news from the Iran war, the surging oil prices and their impact on the wider markets and global economy, U.S. labor data, and other market-moving headlines.

Steno Research founder and CEO Andreas Steno is back with his co-host, Mikkel Rosenvold, to break down how the U.S. and Israel's escalating military action against Iran is impacting markets — from oil to equities and the broader macro regime.

In this episode, we are please to be joined by Sam Rines, Macro Strategist at WisdomTree. Sam shares his career journey from working at several hedge funds to joining WisdomTree as their macro strategist. We discuss how geopolitical and fiscal policies intersect to influence investment strategies, covering various geopolitical topics including Europe's industrial landscape, energy reliance, and defense capabilities, as well as the impact of tariffs on businesses and the outlook for the Asian defense industry. We conclude our discussion with insights on artificial intelligence applications in business, the current state of the business cycle, and what could surprise investors in the coming year.

After a strong start to the year and renewed highs across global markets, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step into the growing tension between Washington and the Federal Reserve, and what it could mean for markets, confidence, and policy credibility. They react to Jamie Dimon's latest comments on economic resilience, unpack the unusual legal pressure facing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and explain why markets appear far more focused on earnings and growth than political noise.Key Takeaways:Markets are prioritizing fundamentals: Earnings growth, productivity gains, and consumer resilience are outweighing the political headlinesFed independence is being tested: The legal and political pressure on the Fed raises long-term questions, but the markets remain focused on outcomes, not noiseMetals are sending a signal: The strength in gold, silver, and industrial metals reflects both global demand and policy uncertaintyLabor markets are cooling, not breaking: Hiring is slower, but the layoffs remain low and prime-age employment stays historically strongBreadth continues to improve: The leadership is expanding beyond mega-cap tech, reinforcing the durability of the current bull marketJump to:0:00 — Economic Resilience, Consumers, And Bank Signals6:00 — Powell, Politics, And Central Bank Independence12:15 — Gold, Metals, And Washington Crosscurrents19:00 — Credit Cards, Housing Policy, And Affordability Risks28:20 — Market Breadth, Diversification, And January Signals31:10 — Labor Market Cooling, Youth Hiring, And Revisions41:00 — Productivity, Margins, And Revenue Per WorkerConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

What if a US dollar collapse is not doom talk from the fringe, but simply the logical end of the fiat currency game we are already playing. In this episode, Mike Peterson sits down with investor and author Larry Lepard inside El Salvador's National Palace to unpack the thesis behind The Big Print book and why Larry believes the next massive round of money printing is not a question of if, only when. From the setting to the stakes, this is a conversation about what happens to real people when a reserve currency reaches the edge of the map. Larry Lepard walks through his journey from pure gold bug to running a fund that owns both gold stocks and Bitcoin, and why he still respects gold while expecting Bitcoin to crush it in performance. He and Mike Peterson explore what sound money really means in a world of relentless monetary debasement, why he sees fiat currency as the true enemy, and why he thinks “cash on the sidelines” is a dangerous illusion. If you have ever argued Bitcoin versus gold with friends, this gives you a deeper, more nuanced view from someone who lives on both sides of that trade.From there, the episode dives into macro reality. Larry explains the US debt doom loop, the trapped position of the Federal Reserve, and why the next Big Print could push us closer to a visible US dollar collapse. He talks about the balance sheet, interest expense, QE under different names, and why he thinks fiat currency has no real bottom once confidence breaks. This is not framed as chart guessing. It is framed as a very direct question about where you want your savings when politicians decide that printing is safer than telling the truth.The setting in El Salvador is not a backdrop. Mike Peterson and Lawrence Lepard talk about President Bukele, Bitcoin as legal tender, and what it means for a small country to defy the IMF and move toward a Bitcoin strategy while the United States digs deeper into fiat. They reflect on safety, investment, and whether “Bitcoin Country” was a PR stunt or an early glimpse of a world where sound money policy starts outside traditional power centers. If you are curious about how one nation is already testing ideas while the rest of the world still debates online, this part of the conversation hits hard.Finally, Larry pushes into a future that sounds crazy until you sit with it. He sketches a timeline where Bitcoin trades at 5 million dollars a coin, Michael Saylor runs for president on a sound money and nuclear disarmament platform, and the United States has to confront a real choice between honest money and the old fiat game. It is provocative, it is uncomfortable, and it is exactly the kind of thought experiment that forces you to ask what you actually believe about Bitcoin, the dollar, and the world your family will live in. If this episode moves something in you, subscribe, share it with someone who still trusts the system by default, and let us know in the comments where you stand after hearing it.-Bitcoin Beach TeamConnect and Learn more about Larry Lepard:X: https://x.com/lawrencelepard Web: https://ema2.com/ Support and follow Bitcoin Beach:X: https://www.twitter.com/BitcoinBeach IG: https://www.instagram.com/bitcoinbeach_sv TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@livefrombitcoinbeach Web: https://www.bitcoinbeach.com Browse through this quick guide to learn more about the episode:00:00 How does Lawrence Lepard imagine a Michael Saylor 2032 presidency and a Bitcoin sound money standard01:35 Why are Mike Peterson and Lawrence Lepard recording this Bitcoin conversation inside El Salvador's National Palace02:29 Why does Larry believe “the big print is imminent” and fiat currency is at the end of the road05:03 How did Lawrence Lepard go from gold bug to running a fund that owns both gold stocks and Bitcoin09:02 Is the clasLive From Bitcoin Beach

Our Co-Head of Securitized Products Research James Egan joins our Chief Economic Strategist Ellen Zentner to discuss the recent challenges facing the U.S. housing market, and the path forward for home buyers and investors. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- James Egan: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm James Egan, U.S. Housing Strategist and Co-Head of Securitized Products Research for Morgan Stanley. Ellen Zentner: And I'm Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist and Global Head of Thematic and Macro Investing at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. James Egan: And today we dive into a topic that touches nearly every American household, quite literally. The future of the U.S. housing market. It's Thursday, September 25th at 10am in New York. So, Ellen, this conversation couldn't be timelier. Last week, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and our chief U.S. Economist, Mike Gapen expects three more consecutive 25 basis point cuts through January of next year. And that's going to be followed by two more 25 basis point cuts in April and July. But mortgage rates, they're not tied to fed funds. So even if we do get 6.25 bps cuts by the end of 2026, that in and of itself we don't think is going to be sufficient to bring down mortgage rates, though other factors could get us there.Taking all that into account, the U.S. housing market appears to be a little stuck. The big question on investors' minds is – what's next for housing and what does that mean for the broader economy? Ellen Zentner: Well, I don't like the word stuck. There's no churn in the housing market. We want to see things moving and shaking. We want to see sellers out there. We want to see buyers out there. And we've got a lot of buyers – or would be buyers, right? But not a lot of sellers. And, you know, the economy does well when things are moving and shaking because there's a lot of home related spending that goes on when we're selling and buying homes. And so that helps boost consumer spending. Housing is also a really interest rate sensitive sector, so you know, I like to say as goes housing, so goes the business cycle. And so, you don't want to think that housing is sort of on the downhill slide or heading toward a downturn [be]cause it would mean that the entire economy is headed toward a downturn. So, we want to see housing improve here. We want to see it thaw out. I don't like, again, the word stuck, you know. I want to see some more churn. James Egan: As do we, and one of the reasons that I wanted to talk to you today is that you are observing all of these pressures on the U.S. housing market from your perspective in wealth management. And that means your job is to advise retail clients who sometimes can have a longer investment time horizon. So, Ellen, when you look at the next decade, how do you estimate the need for new housing units in the United States and what happens if we fall short of these estimated targets? Ellen Zentner: Yeah, so we always like to say demographics makes the world go round and especially it makes the housing market go round. And we know that if you just look at demographic drivers in the U.S. Of those young millennials and Gen Z that are aging into their first time home buying years – whether they're able to immediately or at some point purchase a home – they will want to buy homes. And if they can't afford the homes, then they will want to maybe rent those single-family homes. But either way, if you're just looking at the sheer need for housing in any way, shape, or form that it comes, we're going to need about 18 million units to meet all of that demand through 2030. And so, when I'm talking with our clients on the wealth management side, it's – Okay, short term here or over the next couple of years, there is a housing cycle. And affordability is creating pressures there. But if we look out beyond that, there are opportunities because of the demographic drivers – single family rentals, multi-family. We think modular housing can be something big here, as well. All of those solutions that can help everyone get into a home that wants to be. James Egan: Now, you hit on something there that I think is really important, kind of the implications of affordability challenges. One of the things that we've been seeing is it's been driving a shift toward rentership over ownership. How does that specific trend affect economic multipliers and long-term wealth creation? Ellen Zentner: In terms of whether you're going to buy a single-family home or you're going to rent a single-family home, it tends to be more square footage and there's more spending that goes on with it. But, of course, then relatively speaking, if you're buying that single family home versus renting, you're also going to probably spend a lot more time and care on that home while you're there, which means more money into the economy. In terms of wealth creation, we'd love to get the single-family home ownership rate as high as possible. It's the key way that households build intergenerational wealth. And the average American, or the average household has four times the wealth in their home than they do in the stock market. And so that's why it's very important that we've always created wealth that way through housing; and we want people to own, and they want to own. And that's good news. James Egan: These affordability challenges. Another thing that you've been highlighting is that they've led to an internal migration trend. People moving from high cost to lower cost metro areas. How is this playing out and what are the economic consequences of this migration? Ellen Zentner: Well, I think, first of all, I think to the wonderful work that Mark Schmidt does on the Munis team at MS and Co. It matters a great deal, ownership rates in various regions because it can tell you something about the health of the metropolitan area where they are. Buying those homes and paying those property taxes. It can create imbalances across the U.S. where you've got excess supply maybe in some areas, but very tight housing supply in others. And eventually to balance that out, you might even have some people that, say, post-COVID or during COVID moved to some parts of the country that have now become very expensive. And so, they leave those places and then go back to either try another locale or back to the locale they had moved from. So, understanding those flows within the U.S. can help communities understand the needs of their community, the costs associated with filling those needs, and also associated revenues that might be coming in. So, Jim, I mentioned a couple of times here about single family renting, and so from your perch, given that growing number of single-family rentals, how is that going to influence housing strategy and pricing? James Egan: It is certainly another piece of the puzzle when we look at like single family home ownership, multi-unit rentership, multi-unit home ownership, and then single family rentership. Over the past 15 years, this has been the fastest growing way in which kind of U.S. households exist. And when we take a step back looking at the housing market more holistically – something you hit on earlier – supply has been low, and that's played a key role in keeping prices high and affordability under pressure. On top of that, credit availability has been constrained. It's one of the pillars that we use when evaluating home prices and housing activity that we do think gets overlooked. And so even if you can find a home to buy in these tight inventory environments, it's pretty difficult to qualify for a mortgage. Those lending standards have been tight, that's pushed the home ownership rate down to 65 percent. Now, it was a little bit lower than this, after the Great Financial Crisis, but prior to that point, this is the lowest that home ownership rates have been since 1995. And so, we do think that single family rentership, it becomes another outlet and will continue to be an important pillar for the U.S. housing market on a go forward basis. So, the economic implications of that, that you highlighted earlier, we think that's going to continue to be something that we're living with – pun only half intended – in the U.S. housing market. Ellen Zentner: Only half intended. But let me take you back to something that you said at the beginning of the podcast. And you talked about Gapen's expectation for rate cuts and that that's going to bring fed funds rate down. Those are interest rates, though that don't impact mortgage rates. So how do mortgage rates price? And then, how do you see those persistently higher mortgage rates continuing to weigh on affordability. Or, I guess, really, what we all want to know is – when are mortgage rates going to get to a point where housing does become affordable again? James Egan: In our prior podcast, my Co-Head of Securitized Products Research, Jay Bacow and myself talked about how cutting fed funds wasn't necessarily sufficient to bring down mortgage rates. But the other piece of this is going to be how much lower do mortgage rates need to go? And one of the things we highlighted there, a data point that we do think is important. Mortgage rates have come down recently, right? Like we're at our lowest point of the year, but the effective rate on the outstanding market is still below 4.25 percent. Mortgage rates are still above 6.25 percent, so the market's 200 basis points out of the money. One of the things that we've been trying to do, looking at changes to affordability historically. What we think you really need to see a sustainable growth in housing activity is about a 10 percent improvement in affordability. How do we get there? It's about a 5.5 percent mortgage rate as opposed to the 6 1/8th to 6.25 where we were when we walked into this recording studio today. We think there will be a little bit response to the move in mortgage rates we've already seen. Again, it's the lowest that rates have been this year, and there have been some… Ellen Zentner: Are those fence sitters; what we call fence sitters? People that say, ‘Oh gosh, it's coming down. Let me go ahead and jump in here.' James Egan: Absolutely. We'll see some of that. And then from just other parts of the housing infrastructure, we'll see refinance rates pick up, right? Like there are borrowers who've seen originations over the course of the past couple years whose rates are higher than this. Morgan Stanley actually publishes a truly refinanceable index that measures what percentage of the housing market has at least a 25 basis point incentive to refinance. Housing market holistically after this move? 17 percent? Mortgages originated in the last two years, 61 percent of them have that incentive. So, I think you'll see a little bit more purchase activity. Again, we need to get to 5.5 percent for us to believe that will be sustainable. But you'll also see some refinance activity as well, right? Ellen Zentner: Right, it doesn't mean you get absolutely nothing and then all of a sudden the spigot opens when you get to 5.5 percent. Anecdotal evidence, I have a 2.7 percent 30-year mortgage and I've told my husband, I'm going to die in this apartment. I'm not moving anywhere. So, I'm part of the problem, Jim. James Egan: Well, congratulations to you on the mortgage… Ellen Zentner: Thank you. I wasn't trying to brag, But yes, it feels like, you know, your point on perspective folks that are younger buyers, you know, are looking at the prevailing mortgage rate right now and saying, ‘My gosh, that's really high.' But some of us that have been around for a lot longer are saying, ‘Really, this is fine.' But it's all relative speaking. James Egan: When you have over 60 percent of the mortgage market that has a rate below 4.5 percent, below 4 percent, yes, on a long-term basis, mortgage rates don't look particularly high. They're very high relative to the past 15 years, and to your point on a 2.7 percent mortgage rate, there's no incentive for you... Or there's limited incentive for you to sell that home, pay off that 2.7 percent mortgage rate, buy a new home at higher prices, at a much higher mortgage rate. That has – I know you don't like the word stuck – but it has been what's gotten this housing market kind of mired in its current situation. Price is very protective. Activity pretty low. Ellen Zentner: Jim, we've been talking about all the affordability issues and so let's set mortgage rates aside and talk about policy proposals. Are there specific policies that could also help on the affordability front? James Egan: So, there's a number of things that we get questions about on a pretty regular basis. Things like GSE reform, first time home buyer tax credits, things that could potentially spur supply. And look, the devil is in the details here. My colleague, Jay Bacow, has done a lot of work on GSE reform and what we're really focusing on there is the nature of the guarantee as well as the future of regulation and capital charges. For instance, U.S. banks own approximately one-third of the agency mortgage-backed securities market. Any changes to regulatory capital as a result of GSE reform, that could have implications for their demand, and that's going to have implications on mortgage rates, right? First time home buyer tax credits. We have seen those before – the spring of 2008 to 2010, and if we use that as a case study, we did see a temporary rise in home sales and a pause in the pace with which home prices were falling. But the effects there were temporary. Sales and prices wouldn't hit their post housing crisis lows until after those programs expired. Ellen Zentner: Right. So, you were incentivized to buy the house. You get the credit; you buy the house. But then unbeknownst to any economist out there, housing valuations continued to fall. James Egan: You could argue that it maybe pulled some demand forward. And so, you saw a lot of it concentrated and then the absence of that demand afterwards. And then on the supply side, there are a number of different programs we have touched on, some of them in these podcasts in the past. And then some of those questions become what needs to go through Congress, what is more kind of local municipality versus federal government. But look, the devil's in the details. It's an incredibly interesting housing market. Probably one that's going to be the source of many podcasts to come. So, Ellen, given all these challenges facing the U.S. housing market. Where do you see the biggest opportunities for retail investors? Ellen Zentner: So, in our recent note Housing in the Next Decade, we took a look at single family renting; you and I have talked about how that's likely to still be in favor for some time. REITs with exposure to select U.S. rental markets; what about senior housing? That is something that you've done deep research on, as well. Senior and affordable housing providers, home construction and materials companies. What about building more sustainable homes with a good deal of the climate change that we're seeing. And financial technology firms that offer flexible financing solutions. So, these are some of the things that we think could be in play as we think about housing over the long term. James Egan: Ellen, thank you for all your insights. It's been a pleasure to have you on the podcast. And I guess there's a key takeaway for investors here. Housing isn't just about where we live, it's about where the economy is headed. Ellen Zentner: Exactly. Always a pleasure to be on the show. Thanks, Jim. James Egan: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Ray Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, billionaire investor, philanthropist and an author. How do countries actually go broke? In a world of abundance, it's easy to think the good times will last. But with global debt soaring, we may be nearing an unprecedented economic reckoning. History shows these cycles repeat; the question is, can we escape collapse and find a path to prosperity before it's too late? Expect to learn why Ray got interested in how and why countries go broke, how money and debt actually work, the 5 major forces that shaped history, how the debt cycle works to make the rich richer, how politics impact they global world order, what AI will do to disrupt the world as we know it, what most people get wrong about how countries actually fall apart, and much more… Sponsors: See me on tour in America: ⁠https://chriswilliamson.live⁠ See discounts for all the products I use and recommend: https://chriswillx.com/deals Get the best bloodwork analysis in America at https://functionhealth.com/modernwisdom Get a 20% discount on Nomatic's amazing luggage at https://nomatic.com/modernwisdom Get a Free Sample Pack of LMNT's most popular Flavours with your first purchase at https://drinklmnt.com/modernwisdom Get 35% off your first subscription on the best supplements from Momentous at https://livemomentous.com/modernwisdom Timestamps: (0:00) Moving from Macro Investing to Predicting Currency Fluctuations (8:00) The Five Big Forces (15:35) How Does the Debt Cycle Work? (22:39) What Does It Mean for a Country to Not Pay Its Debts? (29:24) To What Extent Do Economic Cycles Affect Politics? (38:32) Why are Our Policies So Push and Pull? (43:29) We're On the Brink of an Economic Downturn (48:08) How Can We Understand the External Geo-Political Order? (53:26) How China's Ascension Relates to the First Two World Orders (57:16) What Role Does Active Nature Have in the Modern World? (01:02:03) The Predicted Impact of AI (01:08:25) Is Anyone Safe From AI? (01:13:15) Are Financial Cycles Worse Than Kinetic Wars? (01:21:03) Is Ray Onto Something? (01:23:56) Find Out More About Ray Extra Stuff: Get my free reading list of 100 books to read before you die: https://chriswillx.com/books Try my productivity energy drink Neutonic: https://neutonic.com/modernwisdom Episodes You Might Enjoy: #577 - David Goggins - This Is How To Master Your Life: https://tinyurl.com/43hv6y59 #712 - Dr Jordan Peterson - How To Destroy Your Negative Beliefs: https://tinyurl.com/2rtz7avf #700 - Dr Andrew Huberman - The Secret Tools To Hack Your Brain: https://tinyurl.com/3ccn5vkp - Get In Touch: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/chriswillx Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/chriswillx YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/modernwisdompodcast Email: https://chriswillx.com/contact - Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hoover Institution Fellow Jon Hartley and Hedge Fund Investor Kyle Bass discuss Kyle's career and upbringing, the 2000s housing crisis, the 2010s European sovereign debt crisis, the rise and fall of Japan's economy, China's rising aggression and decoupling from the US, and why the US remains the best place in the world to continue to invest as an innovation hub.  Recorded on June 13, 2025. ABOUT THE SERIES: Each episode of Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century, a video podcast series and the official podcast of the Hoover Economic Policy Working Group, focuses on getting into the weeds of economics, finance, and public policy on important current topics through one-on-one interviews. Host Jon Hartley asks guests about their main ideas and contributions to academic research and policy. The podcast is titled after Milton Friedman‘s famous 1962 bestselling book Capitalism and Freedom, which after 60 years, remains prescient from its focus on various topics which are now at the forefront of economic debates, such as monetary policy and inflation, fiscal policy, occupational licensing, education vouchers, income share agreements, the distribution of income, and negative income taxes, among many other topics. For more information about the podcast, visit: https://www.hoover.org/podcast/capitalism-and-freedom?utm_source=podbean&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=cf21_podcast

Invest Like the Best: Read the notes at at podcastnotes.org. Don't forget to subscribe for free to our newsletter, the top 10 ideas of the week, every Monday --------- My guest today is Graham Duncan. This conversation will make you think about your life in new ways. This is a two-hour segment of a 4.5-hour interview I did with Graham last year. It stands alone as remarkable, but those who subscribe to Colossus Review will gain access to the full conversation. This will be true in future issues, too. In 2006, in his early 30s, Graham convinced Stuart Miller, CEO of home construction company Lennar, to let him manage $50 million of his family's wealth. A year later, Miller gave him the rest of his capital outside of Lennar. That investment turned into East Rock, where Graham built an incredible investing track record managing billions for a select group of families by focusing on people. Our conversation explores a wide range of topics—from what makes a great investment partnership to the power of positive feedback loops to starting a restaurant. I'm thankful to Graham for showing me the way so many times and for being willing to be so incredibly open in this conversation. Please enjoy this discussion with Graham Duncan.  Subscribe to Colossus Review. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- This episode is brought to you by Ramp. Ramp's mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Ramp is the fastest-growing FinTech company in history, and it's backed by more of my favorite past guests (at least 16 of them!) than probably any other company I'm aware of. Go to Ramp.com/invest to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus. – This episode is brought to you by Ridgeline. Ridgeline has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. I think this platform will become the standard for investment managers, and if you run an investing firm, I highly recommend you find time to speak with them. Head to ridgelineapps.com to learn more about the platform. – This episode is brought to you by Alphasense. AlphaSense has completely transformed the research process with cutting-edge AI technology and a vast collection of top-tier, reliable business content. Imagine completing your research five to ten times faster with search that delivers the most relevant results, helping you make high-conviction decisions with confidence. Invest Like the Best listeners can get a free trial now at Alpha-Sense.com/Invest and experience firsthand how AlphaSense and Tegus help you make smarter decisions faster. ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes: (00:00:00) Learn about Ramp, Ridgeline, & Alphasense (00:09:40) Intro to Graham (00:10:24) Launching Colossus Review (00:12:25) The Principal-Agent Dynamic (00:15:17) Navigating Financial Crises (00:17:52) The Right Grip in Investing (00:22:02) Seeding and Investment Strategies (00:26:07) Defining 'Commercial' and Its Implications (00:31:01) The Role of Laziness and Prolific Output (00:32:50) Finding the Right People and Positive Feedback Loops (00:41:51) Navigating Career Transitions and Motivations (00:47:35) Understanding Source Dynamics (00:54:37) Key Criteria for a Great CIO (01:04:13) Structuring Relationships with CIOs (01:08:10) Managing Ambiguity and Protecting Mental Clarity (01:19:39) The Importance of Source in Business (01:22:19) Designing Physical Spaces for Success (01:27:18) Launching a Restaurant: A Casting Exercise (01:34:47) Taking Over and Transforming Existing Ventures (01:37:38) Macro Investing and Adaptability (01:40:36) Hierarchy of Investment Mastery (01:48:40) The Art of Referencing (01:56:38) Formative Experiences and Personal Growth (02:04:44) Building a Business and Taking Risks (02:12:16) The Origin of East Rock

Invest Like the Best Key Takeaways  “My appetite for finding the best person in the world to do the thing instead of me doing it is almost infinite.” – Graham Duncan Desire wants what it wants; get in tune with your desire Leverage your comparative advantage: Most investing strategies are downstream of the simple goal of (1) making money and (2) not losing too much In investing, the goal is to make money – not be right or feed the go Navigating the Principal-Agent Dynamic: The principal should set the condition that tells the agent that it is okay to make mistakes; if the agent feels that he cannot make mistakes, then he probably won't take sufficient risks Peter Keonig on Source Dynamics: All organizational dysfunction can be traced back to disagreements about the Source; messing with the origin in any subtle way can affect the entire trajectory of the thing in ways that you wouldn't think  Mastery involves “becoming source” of your own style of investing – it involves coming into your own and not playing the game as others have played it, but truly playing it in your own idiosyncratic way Traits of the best investors: (1) Decisiveness (2) Open-mindedness with a point of view Be opportunistic and flexible so that you can flow with emergent market dynamics instead of getting stuck in them Be Like Toranaga: When everybody else is losing their minds, hold – just holdFollow Your Bliss: Trust the universe that if you get in touch with the thing that you are compulsive about and love, the world will come to you  Quiet Ego as a Superpower: The principal should focus on making money and be less concerned about making the idea their ownOn wandering during a wilderness period in your life: Have patience and don't overweight any one thing; don't over-index on “where you are in the system” or become too concerned with being “relevant” “My appetite for finding the best person in the world to do the thing instead of me doing it is almost infinite.” – Graham Duncan Focus on the intersection of what the world wants from you and what you actually want Read the full notes @ podcastnotes.orgMy guest today is Graham Duncan. This conversation will make you think about your life in new ways. This is a two-hour segment of a 4.5-hour interview I did with Graham last year. It stands alone as remarkable, but those who subscribe to Colossus Review will gain access to the full conversation. This will be true in future issues, too. In 2006, in his early 30s, Graham convinced Stuart Miller, CEO of home construction company Lennar, to let him manage $50 million of his family's wealth. A year later, Miller gave him the rest of his capital outside of Lennar. That investment turned into East Rock, where Graham built an incredible investing track record managing billions for a select group of families by focusing on people. Our conversation explores a wide range of topics—from what makes a great investment partnership to the power of positive feedback loops to starting a restaurant. I'm thankful to Graham for showing me the way so many times and for being willing to be so incredibly open in this conversation. Please enjoy this discussion with Graham Duncan.  Subscribe to Colossus Review. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- This episode is brought to you by Ramp. Ramp's mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Ramp is the fastest-growing FinTech company in history, and it's backed by more of my favorite past guests (at least 16 of them!) than probably any other company I'm aware of. Go to Ramp.com/invest to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus. – This episode is brought to you by Ridgeline. Ridgeline has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. I think this platform will become the standard for investment managers, and if you run an investing firm, I highly recommend you find time to speak with them. Head to ridgelineapps.com to learn more about the platform. – This episode is brought to you by Alphasense. AlphaSense has completely transformed the research process with cutting-edge AI technology and a vast collection of top-tier, reliable business content. Imagine completing your research five to ten times faster with search that delivers the most relevant results, helping you make high-conviction decisions with confidence. Invest Like the Best listeners can get a free trial now at Alpha-Sense.com/Invest and experience firsthand how AlphaSense and Tegus help you make smarter decisions faster. ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes: (00:00:00) Learn about Ramp, Ridgeline, & Alphasense (00:09:40) Intro to Graham (00:10:24) Launching Colossus Review (00:12:25) The Principal-Agent Dynamic (00:15:17) Navigating Financial Crises (00:17:52) The Right Grip in Investing (00:22:02) Seeding and Investment Strategies (00:26:07) Defining 'Commercial' and Its Implications (00:31:01) The Role of Laziness and Prolific Output (00:32:50) Finding the Right People and Positive Feedback Loops (00:41:51) Navigating Career Transitions and Motivations (00:47:35) Understanding Source Dynamics (00:54:37) Key Criteria for a Great CIO (01:04:13) Structuring Relationships with CIOs (01:08:10) Managing Ambiguity and Protecting Mental Clarity (01:19:39) The Importance of Source in Business (01:22:19) Designing Physical Spaces for Success (01:27:18) Launching a Restaurant: A Casting Exercise (01:34:47) Taking Over and Transforming Existing Ventures (01:37:38) Macro Investing and Adaptability (01:40:36) Hierarchy of Investment Mastery (01:48:40) The Art of Referencing (01:56:38) Formative Experiences and Personal Growth (02:04:44) Building a Business and Taking Risks (02:12:16) The Origin of East Rock

My guest today is Graham Duncan. This conversation will make you think about your life in new ways. This is a two-hour segment of a 4.5-hour interview I did with Graham last year. It stands alone as remarkable, but those who subscribe to Colossus Review will gain access to the full conversation. This will be true in future issues, too. In 2006, in his early 30s, Graham convinced Stuart Miller, CEO of home construction company Lennar, to let him manage $50 million of his family's wealth. A year later, Miller gave him the rest of his capital outside of Lennar. That investment turned into East Rock, where Graham built an incredible investing track record managing billions for a select group of families by focusing on people. Our conversation explores a wide range of topics—from what makes a great investment partnership to the power of positive feedback loops to starting a restaurant. I'm thankful to Graham for showing me the way so many times and for being willing to be so incredibly open in this conversation. Please enjoy this discussion with Graham Duncan.  Subscribe to Colossus Review. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- This episode is brought to you by Ramp. Ramp's mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Ramp is the fastest-growing FinTech company in history, and it's backed by more of my favorite past guests (at least 16 of them!) than probably any other company I'm aware of. Go to Ramp.com/invest to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus. – This episode is brought to you by Ridgeline. Ridgeline has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. I think this platform will become the standard for investment managers, and if you run an investing firm, I highly recommend you find time to speak with them. Head to ridgelineapps.com to learn more about the platform. – This episode is brought to you by Alphasense. AlphaSense has completely transformed the research process with cutting-edge AI technology and a vast collection of top-tier, reliable business content. Imagine completing your research five to ten times faster with search that delivers the most relevant results, helping you make high-conviction decisions with confidence. Invest Like the Best listeners can get a free trial now at Alpha-Sense.com/Invest and experience firsthand how AlphaSense and Tegus help you make smarter decisions faster. ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes: (00:00:00) Learn about Ramp, Ridgeline, & Alphasense (00:05:12) Intro to Graham (00:05:54) Launching Colossus Review (00:08:05) The Principal-Agent Dynamic (00:10:47) Navigating Financial Crises (00:13:22) The Right Grip in Investing (00:17:32) Seeding and Investment Strategies (00:21:37) Defining 'Commercial' and Its Implications (00:26:31) The Role of Laziness and Prolific Output (00:28:20) Finding the Right People and Positive Feedback Loops (00:37:21) Navigating Career Transitions and Motivations (00:43:05) Understanding Source Dynamics (00:50:07) Key Criteria for a Great CIO (00:59:43) Structuring Relationships with CIOs (01:03:40) Managing Ambiguity and Protecting Mental Clarity (01:15:09) The Importance of Source in Business (01:17:49) Designing Physical Spaces for Success (01:22:46) Launching a Restaurant: A Casting Exercise (01:30:17) Taking Over and Transforming Existing Ventures (01:33:08) Macro Investing and Adaptability (01:36:06) Hierarchy of Investment Mastery (01:44:10) The Art of Referencing (01:52:08) Formative Experiences and Personal Growth (02:00:12) Building a Business and Taking Risks (02:07:46) The Origin of East Rock

Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist and Global Head of Thematic and Macro Investing at Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Office discusses jobs numbers, her market thoughts, and labor dynamics. She speaks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode 131: Are You An Investor Who Wants To Increase Your Risk Adjusted Returns? Then this episode is for you! My special guest, Andy Constan, explores INVESTING with goal of achieving an EDGE - Excess Returns - in the Markets. That is the goal, right? How do you get that EDGE? Let's explore ALPHA. Is ALPHA Impossible? When You "Think" You Found ALPHA, Is It Really Just Beta In Disguise? What is ALPHA? What is BETA? Enter Andy Constan, over 35 years of investing and trading Global Markets, from Bioengineering at PENN to Head of Global Equity Derivatives at Salomon Brothers to Macro Investing at Bridgewater Associates to Founding 2 Relative Value Hedge Funds to now CEO/CIO at DAMPED SPRING (full service macro & commodity research firm) and is one of the 2 GRAY BEARDS Plus more in between! We discuss the WHY and WHEN in investing with focus on global macro and risk adjusted returns in the markets. It's time to learn more about Bonds, Yields, Inflation, Growth, Liquidity, Risk, and ALPHA and BETA Investing Strategies. How do you distinguish Alpha from Beta?  Is Investing in Assets a "Free Lunch?" Know Your ALPHA & BETA Investing Strategies! An episode you cannot afford to miss! ➡️Follow Andy on X: https://x.com/dampedspring ➡️Visit Damped Spring: https://dampedspring.com/ ➡️Visit 2 Gray Beards: https://2graybeards.com/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ For Investment Inquiries and/or to speak to an Investment Advisor at HYDRA WEALTH ADVISORS, please visit: https://www.hydrawealthadvisors.com ✨SUBSCRIBE to The RO Show YT Channel✨ https://youtube.com/@theroshowpodcast https://rumble.com/c/c-5300605 ➡️CONNECT with ROSANNA PRESTIA⬅️ ✨ONE SITE ♾️ https://sociatap.com/RosannaPrestia/ ✨X ♾️ https://twitter.com/RosannaInvests ✨X ♾️ https://twitter.com/TheROShowPod ✨WEBSITE ♾️ https://www.rosannaprestia.com/ THINK Different with Rosanna ©️ 2022-2024

Head of liquid alternatives and hedge funds, Mark Sullivan, and investment director of diversifying strategies, Chris Perret, share their views on why the multidimensionality of macro investment approaches may help provide investors a smoother path forward amid an increasingly uncertain macro and geopolitical backdrop.1:50 Career paths5:10 Major shifts in the macro environment8:20 Influence of government policy on markets10:50 Effect of US election cycle12:10 Japan's new reality14:40 Key to success for macro strategies?16:40 Geopolitical risks19:30 Dimensionality in the investment process21:00 Importance of talent development25:20 Why lean into macro now?

While you are sleeping, there's a risk to your enIre wealth and you probably never saw it looming. Your media never talked about it, most of those that are at least aware of it dismissed it as silliness or some conspiracy theory. But the risk has grown exponenIally in the past 12 months and now I think we are at Defcon levels of risk on this, and we should be openly talking about BRICS+

While you are sleeping, there's a risk to your enIre wealth and you probably never saw it looming. Your media never talked about it, most of those that are at least aware of it dismissed it as silliness or some conspiracy theory. But the risk has grown exponenIally in the past 12 months and now I think we are at Defcon levels of risk on this, and we should be openly talking about BRICS+

While you are sleeping, there's a risk to your enIre wealth and you probably never saw it looming. Your media never talked about it, most of those that are at least aware of it dismissed it as silliness or some conspiracy theory. But the risk has grown exponenIally in the past 12 months and now I think we are at Defcon levels of risk on this, and we should be openly talking about BRICS+

While you are sleeping, there's a risk to your enIre wealth and you probably never saw it looming. Your media never talked about it, most of those that are at least aware of it dismissed it as silliness or some conspiracy theory. But the risk has grown exponenIally in the past 12 months and now I think we are at Defcon levels of risk on this, and we should be openly talking about BRICS+

While you are sleeping, there's a risk to your enIre wealth and you probably never saw it looming. Your media never talked about it, most of those that are at least aware of it dismissed it as silliness or some conspiracy theory. But the risk has grown exponenIally in the past 12 months and now I think we are at Defcon levels of risk on this, and we should be openly talking about BRICS+

While you are sleeping, there's a risk to your enIre wealth and you probably never saw it looming. Your media never talked about it, most of those that are at least aware of it dismissed it as silliness or some conspiracy theory. But the risk has grown exponenIally in the past 12 months and now I think we are at Defcon levels of risk on this, and we should be openly talking about BRICS+

While you are sleeping, there's a risk to your enIre wealth and you probably never saw it looming. Your media never talked about it, most of those that are at least aware of it dismissed it as silliness or some conspiracy theory. But the risk has grown exponenIally in the past 12 months and now I think we are at Defcon levels of risk on this, and we should be openly talking about BRICS+

While you are sleeping, there's a risk to your enIre wealth and you probably never saw it looming. Your media never talked about it, most of those that are at least aware of it dismissed it as silliness or some conspiracy theory. But the risk has grown exponenIally in the past 12 months and now I think we are at Defcon levels of risk on this, and we should be openly talking about BRICS+

While you are sleeping, there's a risk to your enIre wealth and you probably never saw it looming. Your media never talked about it, most of those that are at least aware of it dismissed it as silliness or some conspiracy theory. But the risk has grown exponenIally in the past 12 months and now I think we are at Defcon levels of risk on this, and we should be openly talking about BRICS+

While you are sleeping, there's a risk to your enIre wealth and you probably never saw it looming. Your media never talked about it, most of those that are at least aware of it dismissed it as silliness or some conspiracy theory. But the risk has grown exponenIally in the past 12 months and now I think we are at Defcon levels of risk on this, and we should be openly talking about BRICS+

While you are sleeping, there's a risk to your enIre wealth and you probably never saw it looming. Your media never talked about it, most of those that are at least aware of it dismissed it as silliness or some conspiracy theory. But the risk has grown exponenIally in the past 12 months and now I think we are at Defcon levels of risk on this, and we should be openly talking about BRICS+

While you are sleeping, there's a risk to your enIre wealth and you probably never saw it looming. Your media never talked about it, most of those that are at least aware of it dismissed it as silliness or some conspiracy theory. But the risk has grown exponenIally in the past 12 months and now I think we are at Defcon levels of risk on this, and we should be openly talking about BRICS+

While you are sleeping, there's a risk to your enIre wealth and you probably never saw it looming. Your media never talked about it, most of those that are at least aware of it dismissed it as silliness or some conspiracy theory. But the risk has grown exponenIally in the past 12 months and now I think we are at Defcon levels of risk on this, and we should be openly talking about BRICS+

While you are sleeping, there's a risk to your enIre wealth and you probably never saw it looming. Your media never talked about it, most of those that are at least aware of it dismissed it as silliness or some conspiracy theory. But the risk has grown exponenIally in the past 12 months and now I think we are at Defcon levels of risk on this, and we should be openly talking about BRICS+

While you are sleeping, there's a risk to your enIre wealth and you probably never saw it looming. Your media never talked about it, most of those that are at least aware of it dismissed it as silliness or some conspiracy theory. But the risk has grown exponenIally in the past 12 months and now I think we are at Defcon levels of risk on this, and we should be openly talking about BRICS+

While you are sleeping, there's a risk to your enIre wealth and you probably never saw it looming. Your media never talked about it, most of those that are at least aware of it dismissed it as silliness or some conspiracy theory. But the risk has grown exponenIally in the past 12 months and now I think we are at Defcon levels of risk on this, and we should be openly talking about BRICS+

While you are sleeping, there's a risk to your enIre wealth and you probably never saw it looming. Your media never talked about it, most of those that are at least aware of it dismissed it as silliness or some conspiracy theory. But the risk has grown exponenIally in the past 12 months and now I think we are at Defcon levels of risk on this, and we should be openly talking about BRICS+

While you are sleeping, there's a risk to your enIre wealth and you probably never saw it looming. Your media never talked about it, most of those that are at least aware of it dismissed it as silliness or some conspiracy theory. But the risk has grown exponenIally in the past 12 months and now I think we are at Defcon levels of risk on this, and we should be openly talking about BRICS+

While you are sleeping, there's a risk to your enIre wealth and you probably never saw it looming. Your media never talked about it, most of those that are at least aware of it dismissed it as silliness or some conspiracy theory. But the risk has grown exponenIally in the past 12 months and now I think we are at Defcon levels of risk on this, and we should be openly talking about BRICS+

While you are sleeping, there's a risk to your enIre wealth and you probably never saw it looming. Your media never talked about it, most of those that are at least aware of it dismissed it as silliness or some conspiracy theory. But the risk has grown exponenIally in the past 12 months and now I think we are at Defcon levels of risk on this, and we should be openly talking about BRICS+

Episode 116: We simplify finance, macro, markets, and investing with James Lavish, reformed hedge fund manager, AMAZING HOCKEY PLAYER with BRUINS & Yale, author of a fantastic newsletter - "Informationist" where he simplifies finance for all for FREE. Why is the market running up with no recession? Will there be a recession? James discusses the liquidity in our system and where it is coming from, the massive fiscal deficits and rising public debt, investing, and more. We go deep under the hood and talk about what is really going on in finance and macro and the potential repercussions from the current policies and legislation. What is happening to our purchasing power? Is inflation actually close to 2%? What can we do about it all and how to properly prepare for the future? Watch & find out now

Feel free to book a call and plan how to reach your time-freedom point faster.Visit us at idealinvestorshow.comStart taking action right NOW!Goal-setting the right way! Hesitant to make the first step toward real estate investing? Axel learned the hard way- but you DON'T have to start that way. Feel free to talk to him :)Connect with us through social! We'd love to build a community of like-minded people like YOU!Support the show

In this compelling episode of the Mark Moss Show, we delve deep into the decentralized revolution, with a special focus on technology's role in reshaping our world. Our special guest, Christopher Calicott, co-founder and managing director of Trammell Venture Partners, gives us insider insights into macro investing trends, private equity dynamics, and the state of Bitcoin and crypto ventures. We also tackle burning questions on public vs. private markets and the future of Bitcoin as the internet's monetary standard. Stay with us for a conversation that promises to challenge your perspectives and offer deep-dive insights into the world of venture capital and Bitcoin.TAGS: Bitcoin, Mark Moss Show, Decentralized Revolution, Technology, Christopher Calicott, Trammell Venture Partners, Macro Investing, Private Equity, Crypto, Venture Capital, Public Markets, M&A Activity, Institutional Investors, Monetary Standard, Energy and Bitcoin, Bitcoin-native Ecosystem, Oil, Warren Buffett, Coke, Investing, How to invest, See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Macro Investing     Takeaway: Remain curious and explore new ideas   Money Learnings: Bob grew up as a middle-class kid in the Midwest. His father was an entrepreneur and sort of instilled that entrepreneurial spirit into him.   Bio: Bob Elliott is a macro investor with decades of experience, including at Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund where he created many of the strategies in the flagship Pure Alpha fund.  During his nearly 15 years at Bridgewater Elliott ran Ray Dalio's investment research team, authored hundreds of Bridgewater's widely read Daily Observations and directly counseled policymakers at the Fed, Treasury, ECB, PBOC and others on macro economic and investing issues. In early 2022, Elliott started Unlimited, a startup ETF company making diversified, low cost index ETFs of 2&20 investment strategies available to every investor.  Its first product is the HFND ETF, is one of the fastest growing actively managed independent ETF launches of the last few years.   Highlights from this episode:    How Bob got involved with Bridgewater Bob discussed what macro investing is and how it is important Late cycle inflation and central bank's balancing act Bob discusses how inflation is becoming persistent and affecting business contracts and wage growth What is tactical asset allocation? https://www.unlimitedfunds.com/ Richer Soul Life Beyond Money. You got rich, now what? Let's talk about your journey to more a purposeful, intentional, amazing life. Where are you going to go and how are you going to get there? Let's figure that out together. At the core is the financial well being to be able to do what you want, when you want, how you want. It's about personal freedom! Thanks for listening! Show Sponsor: http://profitcomesfirst.com/ Schedule your free no obligation call: https://bookme.name/rockyl/lite/intro-appointment-15-minutes If you like the show please leave a review on iTunes: http://bit.do/richersoul https://www.facebook.com/richersoul http://richersoul.com/ rocky@richersoul.com Some music provided by Junan from Junan Podcast Any financial advice is for educational purposes only and you should consult with an expert for your specific needs.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU'LL LEARN:01:22 - Why and how do we need to understand the macro environment when we invest07:18 - Why we should think of the economy as we think of the human body19:02 - Why the traditional buy-and-hold equity strategy is flawed26:20 - Why a house we live in is typically not a good investment35:16 - How has the stock market performed after inflation and taxes? 40:38 - Why investors are not globally diversified when they invest in the S&P50048:27 - Why bonds bear markets are different from bear markets in stocks55:58 - Why diversification is about hating some of your portfolio all of the time1:03:49 - How money creation will change with a digital currency by central banks1:11:53 - What is yield curve control, and how is it exercised? 1:16:08 - What is the third mandate of the FED?Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.BOOKS AND RESOURCESStig's first part interview with Cullen Roche about Inflation.Cullen Roche's website, The Discipline Funds.Cullen Roche's website, Pragmatic Capitalism.Tweet directly to Cullen Roche.Email Cullen at cullenroche@orcamgroup.com.Cullen Roche's YouTube channel.Cullen Roche's new research paper, All Duration Investing.Cullen Roche's book, Pragmatic Capitalism – Read reviews here.NEW TO THE SHOW?Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs.Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool.Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets.Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. P.S The Investor's Podcast Network is excited to launch a subreddit devoted to our fans in discussing financial markets, stock picks, questions for our hosts, and much more! Join our subreddit r/TheInvestorsPodcast today!SPONSORSInvest in high-quality, cash-flowing real estate without all of the hassle with Passive Investing.Private assets represent 98% of companies in North America but are absent in most portfolios. Reconstruct your portfolio with private markets with Mackenzie Investments.Build a plan that helps you strengthen your financial security with RBC Wealth Management. RBC capital markets LLC, member NYSE, FINRA, SIPC.Throw out the old traditions and get progressive. Discover the complete package - smart design, lots to love under the hood with Genesis.Have gold and silver shipped directly to your door for you to hold at your home. Get BullionMax's Gold Investor Kit today - 3 ounces of the world's most desirable gold coins, including the Gold American Eagle and Canadian Maple Leaf.See the potential of your business. Find solutions that work for you, that tick bigger boxes and help you grow with Square.Confidently take control of your online world without worrying about viruses, phishing attacks, ransomware, hacking attempts, and other cybercrimes with Avast One.Enjoy a 400-calorie meal that contains 40g of expertly sourced, premium plant protein, all 26 essential vitamins and minerals, and a scientifically calibrated mix of carbs, good fats and fiber with Huel Black Edition. Plus, get a free t-shirt and free shaker with your first order.Start printing everything your small business needs and discover the endless printabilities with VistaPrint.If your business has five or more employees and managed to survive Covid you could be eligible to receive a payroll tax rebate of up to twenty-six thousand dollars per employee. Find out if your business qualifies with Innovation Refunds.Get position and investment info for nearly 6,000 Asset Management Companies with Moomoo, Australia's first A.I. powered trading platform. Sign up and fund your moomoo account before October 31 and get $10 for every $100 you deposit. All investment carries risk. AFSL 224 663. T&Cs apply.Start building a portfolio of alternative farm and timberland assets with AcreTrader.If you're aware you need to improve your bitcoin security but have been putting it off, Unchained Capital's Concierge Onboarding is a simple way to get started—sooner rather than later. Book your onboarding today and at checkout, get $50 off with the promo code FUNDAMENTALS.Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.