We Are Not Saved

Shorting the Grid: The Hidden Fragility of Our Electric Grid  By: Meredith Angwin  Published: 2014 496 Pages Briefly, what is this book about? A deep dive into the convoluted nature of the electrical grid with a particular focus on how attempts to make it more effective through competition have failed. Beyond that Angwin describes how the challenge of integrating and encouraging renewables has turned a convoluted problem into an impossible one. What's the author's angle? Angwin is a blogger (her newsletter is titled “Electric Grandma”) who has dedicated her energies to the very narrow focus of the power grid and related issues. Before retiring she worked with the utilities as a chemist. Since then she's been a consumer advocate, primarily in the northeast where she has been closely involved in the laws and regulations for many years. Who should read this book? This is a book for infrastructure nerds. Particularly if you're interested in the fragility of infrastructure or the challenge of grid management in an era of intermittent renewals. An initial caveat: I read this book a year ago...

Strange New World: How Thinkers and Activists Redefined Identity and Sparked the Sexual Revolution By: Carl R. Trueman Published: 2022 208 Pages Briefly, what is this book about? The long philosophical journey that took us to the current prioritization of expressive individualism, and how this journey eventually carried us to a strange new world, where expressive sexual/identity politics seem normal if not inevitable.  What's the author's angle? Trueman is a Christian, and this book is written towards a religious audience.  Who should read this book? Trueman's previous book, The Rise and Triumph of the Modern Self is one of my all-time favorite books. (You can see a review here.) This covers basically the same territory, but in a shorter, more accessible format. If you've read his longer book, you can probably skip this one, but if you haven't then I would recommend this book to anyone trying to understand the modern world.  Specific thoughts: It is indeed a strange new world

How much of the mania is inherent to crypto and how much is just SBF? Cryptomania: Hype, Hope, and the Fall of FTX's Billion-Dollar Fintech Empire By: Andrew R. Chow Published: 2024 416 Pages Briefly, what is this book about? The 2020-2022 crypto boom. Three groups stand out. The scammers, as represented by Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF). The idealists, as represented by Vitalik Buterin and the victims as represented by African NFT artist Owo Anieti.  What's the author's angle? Chow definitely thinks that there was a crypto bubble that popped in 2022 with the implosion of FTX. Whether he thinks crypto is a bubble in its entirety is less clear. He's definitely not a crypto booster. Who should read this book? I mostly read it to partake in some schadenfreude at SBF's expense. It delivered on that. If you have similar desires I would recommend it, but it also did a great job of outlining the craziness of that era. What Black Swans does it reveal? The collapse of FTX played out over a much shorter time period than the collapse of, say, Enron or Lehman Brothers. If crypto gets more entrenched into the world's financial system while maintaining this quality of rapid volatility, that would be bad.  Specific thoughts: Owo vs. SBF

Should I translate someone's glee at the murder of Charlie Kirk into an actual willingness to commit it?

Things Fall Apart (The African Trilogy, #1) By: Chinua Achebe Published: 1958 209 Pages Briefly, what is this book about? The main character is Okonkwo, and saying that he's complicated is to put it mildly. He's desperately afraid of failure, which in his case means following in the footsteps of his father. On top of the complexity of Okonkwo there's the additional complexity and richness of the Igbo culture: its customs, its gods, its method of delivering justice, etc.  Into this rich and (for me) strange world, the Europeans arrive. Though not till around the 2/3rd mark. The consequences are perhaps not as bad as you might fear, but they're bad enough. Who should read this book? I quite enjoyed the book, and it was certainly different from my normal fare. Also it reads quickly. Finally, it's widely regarded as a modern classic. I'm not sure I have a good reason why you wouldn't read this book.  Specific thoughts: The flattening of colonialism

Remain in Love: Talking Heads, Tom Tom Club, Tina By: Chris Frantz Published: 2022 208 Pages Briefly, what is this book about? The life and musical career of Chris Frantz and his wife Tina Weymouth. With particular attention paid to his antagonistic relationship with David Byrne, the front man for Talking Heads, a band they were both members of.   What's the author's angle? Frantz seems to be going for three things here. First it's an ode to his wife. Second it lays out his side of the fight between him and Byrne. Finally it's a snapshot into the origin of punk in the late 70s. Who should read this book? If you're a huge Talking Heads fan. Or if you really want a behind the scenes look at what it was like to be in a band in the late 70s. Otherwise I would skip it.  Specific thoughts: The fact that he's stayed married for all these years counts for a lot.

Regretting Motherhood: A Study By: Orna Donath Published: 2017 272 Pages Briefly, what is this book about? Donath interviewed 23 Israeli women who regretted motherhood. In most, but not all, cases these mothers asserted that they still loved their children, they just didn't like the responsibilities and restrictions that came with being a mother. In some cases they only realized this after having children, in other cases they knew they would regret motherhood, but reported feeling forced into it by societal, patriarchal, and pro-natal pressure.  What's the author's angle? This book belongs to the “unsilencing” genre. Donath is “unsilencing” mothers who regret their motherhood. Whether they are actually being silenced just in Israel in 2017, or everywhere even now is a good question, but outside of the scope of this review. Donath herself does not want kids, so she's not an unbiased observer of things.  What's my angle? This was recommended to me as a counterpoint to Hannah's Children by Cathrine Pakaluk (see my review here). I am definitely more Pakaluk's side than Donath's, but it is important to see what the opposition is saying. Nevertheless I was biased going in, and I remained biased all the way through. Who should read this book? If you're trying to gain a broad perspective on mother's feelings about motherhood, then this book definitely lays out one side of the debate, and you will have a broader understanding after reading it. Otherwise I would skip it. Specific thoughts: Where will the fertility rate naturally settle?

Perhaps it's not how fast technology moves, but where it's impact is felt? Also S-curves...

The Rules of the Game: Jutland and British Naval Command By: Andrew Gordon Published: 1996 708 Pages Briefly, what is this book about? An incredibly detailed examination of the battle of Jutland, combined with an equally detailed history of naval command, and its failings in the lead up to the battle.   What's the author's angle? Gordon's target is excessive signalling. And he's written a very long book to demonstrate just how bad it was.  Who should read this book? You have to be pretty committed to WWI naval history or military minutia before this is the book you should be reading. But if you are, it's excellent.  Specific thoughts: Militaries acquire bad habits during peacetime; it's hard to know which of these habits might end up causing great harm

Cheap Sex: The Transformation of Men, Marriage, and Monogamy By: Mark Regnerus Published: 2017 280 Pages Briefly, what is this book about? A data-driven look at the modern dating and “hook-up” culture. As you can tell from the title, he argues that sex has become cheap, not so much in dollars and cents, but in the level of commitment it requires. He points to three reasons for this change: the pill, porn, and dating apps.  What's the author's angle? As I was reading this book, I was trying to remember where I had heard the name Regnerus before. It took me a while to get around to looking him up in Wikipedia, at which point I was reminded of the “New Family Structures Study”. He was the lead author on this study which claimed that children raised by a parent who had been in a same-sex relationship had worse outcomes than those raised by heterosexual parents. If you guessed, based on this, that he's a conservative, then you would be correct. However, that didn't really come through very much while reading the book.  Who should read this book? If you want data to back up the online arguments you've been making. Or if you're looking for a better understanding of the underlying reasons for the continued decline in fertility.  What Black Swans does it reveal? Most of the trends he described are continuing to worsen. Sex just continues to get cheaper. As bad as it is already, it's not crazy to imagine that VR, AI, and sex bots might really cause the bottom to drop out. Specific thoughts: Differing views of sex

The Gulag Archipelago [Volume 3]: An Experiment in Literary Investigation (1918-1956) By: Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn Published: 1973 608 Pages Briefly, what is this book about? The final piece of Solzhenitsyn's amazing, depressing, baffling, chilling, frightening, absurd, terrible, cold, weighty chronicle of the Soviet gulags. This part includes the period after his release which, by itself, could be a fantastic guide to simple contentment. What's the author's angle? I found it interesting how much of this book concerned just preserving the notes he's made and all of the material which will eventually be turned into the book—the angle of making sure the story gets told.  Who should read this book? I have not talked about the fact that there are actually two versions of the Gulag, this three volume behemoth, and an authorized abridgement. Here, at the end, it's worth considering whether I would recommend this three volume set, or the abridgement. I haven't read the abridgement, so I'm not in the ideal position to answer, but given that most people have only read the abridgement, getting the perspective of someone who's read all three volumes should be a contrast.  I'm glad I read the full three volume set first. Should I go back and read the abridged version (I plan to, but I plan to do a lot of things) it will be interesting to see what was deemed critical, and what was cut. But also there's a weight to the gulags, a massiveness, an ominous ponderousness which comes through best in the stories, upon stories, upon stories you get in the full set.  Specific thoughts: Cloaking power in ideology

Everything Is Tuberculosis: The History and Persistence of Our Deadliest Infection By: John Green Published: 2025 208 Pages Briefly, what is this book about? The ubiquity of tuberculosis (wait, did I just restate the title?) especially outside of the US. And its prevalence despite the fact that a cure is available. What's the author's angle? Green was already interested in global health when he met Henry, a young man with tuberculosis (TB) in Sierra Leone, literally on the way out of the country. Green was so affected by Henry and his plight that it eventually led him to completely change his focus, and while I don't want to minimize the vast harms caused by TB, it's apparent that, for Green, it's personal.  Who should read this book? This is a good book to broaden your horizons. When you consider that (TB) kills over a million people per year. And when you consider that most Americans have only the most cursory knowledge about it (including, at the start, Green by his own admission) this book should be read just to fill out your knowledge of how the world really is. But also TB is terrible and it should receive more attention than it does.  Specific thoughts: Whatever else you may think TB should be getting more attention

Biden was just the tip of the iceberg...

Everything you know about WWI is wrong! Okay... maybe not everything, but some things definitely. Forgotten Victory: The First World War: Myths and Realities By: Gary Sheffield Published: 2001 318 Pages Briefly, what is this book about? An apologetic work directed at British leadership during WWI. It refutes the claim that the British Army was composed of “lions led by donkeys”, and instead lays out a case for increasing competence, the necessity of offensives, and a string of victories in 1918. What's the author's angle? Sheffield is a noted member of the revisionist school. He wants to revise the vision of futility most commonly associated with the British participation in WWI.  Who should read this book? Someone who wants a more complete view of WWI, and who is wary of simplistic tales of strategic idiocy.  Specific thoughts: WWI was horrible for the British, but it couldn't have been won any other way

Forbes magazine, the bastion of conservative American business journalism, called it "a filth-spattered lens of depravity and dysfunction". Crisis Zone By: Simon Hanselmann Published: 2021 296 Pages Briefly, what is this book about? A very non-traditional household navigates the pandemic using violence and porn production.  Who should read this book? I would not recommend this book to anyone. It is without a doubt the grossest, crudest work I have ever read. Though Forbes reviewed it and said: In the deluxe and beautifully designed Fantagraphics edition, Crisis Zone ends up looking like a children's book produced in an institution for the criminally insane.  Assuming we have a future ahead of us, Crisis Zone will be the keepsake to remind us what we became in [2020]. But even they had to admit that it was “a filth-spattered lens of depravity and dysfunction”. Specific thoughts: A strong case against a certain lifestyle. 

Noticing: An Essential Reader (1973-2023) By: Steve Sailer Published: 2024 458 Pages Briefly, what is this book about? A collection of essays from Steve Sailer covering immigration, culture war stuff, and human biodiversity. What's the author's angle? For some, Sailer is a horrible right-wing racist. For others he's a data-driven contrarian. I mostly fall in the latter camp. Also whatever you think of his opinions, his tone is exceptionally mild. He's not a fire-breather. Who should read this book? If you've been following Sailer forever there's nothing especially new here. Even if you haven't previously read all of the included essays (and I believe I was at probably 90%), he's covering territory which is very well-trod by him in general. On the other hand if you're only vaguely familiar with Sailer—perhaps you've come across his name once or twice, then this is a great summation of his opinions and writings.  Specific thoughts: How important is tone?  

Collapse of Complex Societies By: Joseph A. Tainter Published: 1988 262 Pages Briefly, what is this book about? A new (at the time) theory for the collapse of societies based on declining marginal returns to complexity. What's the author's angle? This is a book definitely written in opposition to previous theories (think Spengler, Toynbee, etc.) many of which Tainter rejects as overly moralistic. Who should read this book? If you're interested in how the United States will end (and I can't imagine how you're not) this is a great book. Specific thoughts: Okay so this is how collapse happens. Can it be stopped?  

By: Patrick McGee Published: 2025 448 Pages Briefly, what is this book about? How Apple went all in on China, not merely moving manufacturing there, but also educating their companies in, and co-developing with them, numerous advanced manufacturing techniques. These techniques then spread all throughout China. As such, Apple, far more than any other company, enabled China's rise to be the world's most sophisticated manufacturer. In effect they imported a super-charged industrial policy for China. This was bad enough, but the eventual result was that Apple is now utterly dependent on a capricious one-party state.  What's the author's angle? McGee is not entirely unsympathetic to Apple, but it's also clear that he finds the consequences of their actions to be damaging, and, most of all, dumb. Who should read this book? If you're interested in China, technology, the future, or competition then you should read this book.  

In which I start by using my massive intellect to predicte a timeline for the end of the world and end with admitting that I couldn't remember whether I'd read a specific book or not.

In which I engage in an extended, and somewhat clunky Star Wars metaphor. And eventually conclude that clunkiness is sort of the point.

Hamlet by: William Shakespeare Gods and Generals (The Civil War Trilogy, #1) by: Jeff Shaara We Solve Murders by: Richard Osman Stop All the Clocks: A Novel by: Noah Kumin Pyrebound by Brayton Cole Grunge (Monster Hunter Memoirs, #1) by: John Ringo and Larry Correia Sinners (Monster Hunter Memoirs, #2) by: John Ringo and Larry Correia Saints (Monster Hunter Memoirs, #3) by: John Ringo and Larry Correia Fever (Monster Hunter Memoirs, #4) by: Larry Correia and Jason Córdova Target Rich Environment (Volume 1) by: Larry Correia Target Rich Environment (Volume 2) by: Larry Correia Monster Hunter: Siege by: Larry Correia Monster Hunter: Guardian by: Larry Correia Monster Hunter: Bloodlines by: Larry Correia The Monster Hunter Files by: Various

A review of Douglas Murray's "On Democracies and Death Cults" with broad discursions into Sam Kriss' article "Douglas Murray, gruesome toady" and the entire Israel-Hamas-Gaza Mess.

Hannah's Children: The Women Quietly Defying the Birth Dearth by: Catherine Pakaluk The Rise and Decline of Nations: Economic Growth, Stagflation, and Social Rigidities by: Mancur Olson This Kind of War: A Study in Unpreparedness by: T. R. Fehrenbach Fight: Inside the Wildest Battle for the White House by: Jonathan Allen Original Sin: President Biden's Decline, Its Cover-Up, and His Disastrous Choice to Run Again by: Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson Meditations by: Marcus Aurelius The Gap and The Gain: The High Achievers' Guide to Happiness, Confidence, and Success by: Dan Sullivan and Benjamin P. Hardy

People are worried about a lot of things at the moment, but one thing near the top of everyone's list is a war between the US and China over the fate of Taiwan. What most people have forgotten is that the US already fought a war with China. It's easy to overlook this previous conflict because we called it the Korean War (and initially it wasn't even called a war). This is understandable given that it took place in Korea. As such, it's forgivable to overlook the huge Chinese involvement. But for most of the war the Chinese were our primary opponents. (At its peak 80% of enemy troops were Chinese.) Can we draw any lessons from our last war with China when considering the possible outcomes of a future war with the same adversary? There are certainly worse places to look for information. The first thing we might look at is the outcome. How did we do? How did the war end? This part, at least, most people remember. It ended in a draw. After costing the lives of at least four million people (soldiers and civilians) the final truce line was very close to the original dividing line of the 38th parallel.

A Rumor of Angels: Modern Society and the Rediscovery of the Supernatural by: Peter L. Berger The Four Cardinal Virtues by: Josef Pieper Analects by: Confucius Believe: Why Everyone Should Be Religious by: Ross Douthat

Someone needs to point out the potential problems with superforecasting. For some reason it as fallen to me.

The movement is called anti-aging, not anti-injury. How do people who believe they have a real shot at immortality interact with the phenomena of safetyism?

The Moral Sense by: James Q. Wilson The Gulag Archipelago [Volume 2]: An Experiment in Literary Investigation (1918-1956) by: Alekandr Solzhenitsyn Stalin's War: A New History of World War II by: Sean McMeekin Doctored: Fraud, Arrogance, and Tragedy in the Quest to Cure Alzheimer's by: Charles Piller How the World Ran Out of Everything: Inside the Global Supply Chain by: Peter S. Goodman Careless People: A Cautionary Tale of Power, Greed, and Lost Idealism by: Sarah Wynn-Williams Who Not How: The Formula to Achieve Bigger Goals Through Accelerating Teamwork by: Dan Sullivan

Getting people to have more children may be as difficult as getting people to abandon their four-door sedan for a horse and buggy.

Three translations of a classic, high brow literary fiction, a great book from a friend of and mine then a whole lot of pulp. Also something that might be the beginnings of a book by Neal Stephenson.

Audio for the keystone chapter (Chapter Zero) of the book I'm working on.

If integration is straightforward how is it that the former East Germany is so different ideologically from the former West Germany?

Private Truths, Public Lies: The Social Consequences of Preference Falsification by: Timur Kuran Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism by: Scott Horton The Gulag Archipelago, 1918-1956: An Experiment in Literary Investigation, Volume 1 by: Alexander Solzhenitsyn Climate Shock: The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet by: Gernot Wagner & Martin L. Weitzman The Vertigo Years: Europe 1900-1914 by: Philipp Blom The Lion's Gate: On the Front Lines of the Six Day War by: Steven Pressfield

Things are changing. Hopefully in good ways.

In which I decide that I am not going to read "Wind and Truth". And also that 63 hours on audio is just ridiculous.

The Evil Creator: Origins of an Early Christian Idea by: M. David Litwa Existential Kink: Unmask Your Shadow and Embrace Your Power by: Carolyn Elliott The Ballad of the White Horse by: G. K. Chesterton American Cosmic: UFOs, Religion, Technology by: D.W. Pasulka Encounters: Experiences with Nonhuman Intelligences by: D.W. Pasulka Undreaming Wetiko: Breaking the Spell of the Nightmare Mind-Virus by: Paul Levy

A method for making better decisions should you ever find yourself in Kathmandu, or paying for SEO, or hoping to see the Supreme Court.

Self-Help Is Like a Vaccine: Essays on Living Better by: Bryan Caplan Anaximander: And the Birth of Science by: Carlo Rovelli The Social Conquest of Earth by: Edward O. Wilson The Intellectual Devotional: Revive Your Mind, Complete Your Education, and Roam Confidently with the Cultured Class by: David S. Kidder and Noah D. Oppenheim Building a StoryBrand: Clarify Your Message So Customers Will Listen by: Donald Miller The Power of Having Fun: How Meaningful Breaks Help You Get More Done by: Dave Crenshaw The Cartoon Introduction to Climate Change by: Yoram Bauman and Grady Klein The Little Book of Aliens by: Adam Frank

You have probably heard about Rotherham, and the child sex abuse rings that existed there (and may still be operating). As with so many things these days, this story entered the public discussion when Musk tweeted about it. For many people I've talked to, this was the first they'd heard of it. I actually spoke about about it in 2018. At the time I felt I was late to the game, but apparently I was six years ahead of most people. Given the story's re-emergence I thought it might be worth dusting off that old piece. I think it holds up pretty well, particularly the part about the woeful lack of reporting on the topic. I have lightly edited it, smoothing things out in a few places, adding commas, that sort of thing. Temporal references have not been updated, so when I say “a week ago” I'm referring to 2018. Even if you've already read a lot about these horrific crimes, there are a few takes in here that I haven't seen elsewhere  

Exactly five years ago, China identified a “novel coronavirus” and the world was introduced to the term “wet market”. In the time since then arguments continue to rage about the source of the virus, the measures that were taken, and the vaccines that were created. In the midst of all these arguments, everyone seems to agree on one thing: extended school closures were a bad idea. It's very easy to continue on from that to assume the harms of such closures were obvious from the very beginning—that they happened only because we were blinded by fear. Some people don't go quite so far, but nevertheless argue that such closures were implemented hastily and without much consideration. But consider this quote from the Michael Lewis book Premonition on the role of disease modeling: The graph illustrated the effects on a disease of various crude strategies: isolating the ill; quarantining entire households when they had a sick person in them; socially distancing adults; giving people antiviral drugs; and so on. Each of the crude strategies had some slight effect, but none by itself made much of a dent, and certainly none had the ability to halt the pandemic by driving the disease's reproductive rate below 1. One intervention was not like the others, however: when you closed schools and put social distance between kids, the flu-like disease fell off a cliff. (The model defined “social distance” not as zero contact but as a 60 percent reduction in kids' social interaction.) “I said, ‘Holy shit!' ” said Carter. “Nothing big happens until you close the schools. It's not like anything else. It's like a phase change. It's nonlinear. It's like when water temperature goes from thirty-three to thirty-two. When it goes from thirty-four to thirty-three, it's no big deal; one degree colder and it turns to ice.

A Gentleman in Moscow by: Amor Towles The Humans by: Matt Haig Super-Cannes: A Novel by: J. G. Ballard Monster Hunter: International by: Larry Correia Monster Hunter: Vendetta by: Larry Correia

Three things converged for me recently and at the point of their convergence was the issue of placing women in frontline combat roles. The first leg of the convergence was the election of Donald Trump. We're still debating the reasons why he won, but certainly a reassertion of gender differences are near the top of everyone's list. For example, allowing natal men into women's sports. The second was Trump's nomination of Pete Hesgeth for Secretary of Defense. Hegseth's nomination is controversial for a lot of reasons, but one of the controversies is his opinion that women should not be allowed into front line combat roles.  Finally, I just got done watching the miniseries Band of Brothers, while at the same time re-reading the Stephen E. Ambrose book it's based on. I would highly recommend the exercise (see my review of the book here.) In addition to being enjoyable it reminded me of how physical, grimy, and desperate combat can be. And of course the theme of both the book and the series is that Easy Company was so effective because they had developed strong bonds of brotherhood through the numerous challenges they overcame. These challenges include D-Day, Market Garden, liberating concentration camps, and finally being the first into Hitler's stronghold at Eagle's Nest. But if you were to pick the hardest thing they did, it was probably defending Bastogne during the Battle of the Bulge. Watching and reading about Bastogne was a sobering experience. It is also the point where the three things I just mentioned crystallized into this line of inquiry. Given that it might be helpful to give you a brief overview of the Siege of Bastogne...  

Big Gods: How Religion Transformed Cooperation and Conflict by: Ara Norenzayan A Brief History of Intelligence: Evolution, AI, and the Five Breakthroughs That Made Our Brains by: Max Bennett The Management of Savagery: How America's National Security State Fueled the Rise of Al Qaeda, ISIS, and Donald Trump by: Max Blumenthal What I Learned Losing a Million Dollars by: Jim Paul and Brendan Moynihan The Laws of Trading: A Trader's Guide to Better Decision-Making for Everyone by: Agustin Lebron Meditations for Mortals: Four Weeks to Embrace Your Limitations and Make Time for What Counts by: Oliver Burkeman Band of Brothers: E Company, 506th Regiment, 101st Airborne, from Normandy to Hitler's Eagle's Nest by: Stephen E. Ambrose The Small and the Mighty: Twelve Unsung Americans Who Changed the Course of History, from the Founding to the Civil Rights Movement by: Sharon McMahon

AI Snake Oil: What Artificial Intelligence Can Do, What It Can't, and How to Tell the Difference by: Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor Country Driving: A Journey Through China from Farm to Factory by: Peter Hessler On Grand Strategy by: John Lewis Gaddis Leisure: The Basis of Culture by: Josef Pieper Anatomy of the State by: Murray Rothbard The ONE Thing: The Surprisingly Simple Truth Behind Extraordinary Results Alone on the Ice: The Greatest Survival Story in the History of Exploration by: David Roberts The Killer Angels: The Classic Novel of the Civil War by: Michael Shaara

He talks about the Village, and the River, but what we really need is a Redoubt. On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything  By: Nate Silver Published: 2024 576 Pages Briefly, what is this book about? There are two different ways of approaching the world: the River, which thinks in terms of numbers, expected values, and quantification and the Village, which is the paternalistic expert class which manifests as the vast bureaucracy.  What's the author's angle? I got the impression that Silver just wanted to write about things that interested him. Because of this, his thesis was kind of tacked on. That said, he is a fairly passionate advocate for things that interest him.  Who should read this book? Silver is worried that people will skip the first half of the book which is about gambling, but in reality that was the best part, or at least the part I found to be novel. The second part is about Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), AI, and all the stuff you've already heard too much about if you spend much time online. With this in mind, I think there are three reasons to read this book: If you want a deep exploration of high-level poker playing.  You have never heard of AI Risk or SBF. If you think my discussion of Silver's model of the Village vs. the River is incomplete. Specific thoughts: An mashup of the election and this book ...

One Nation Under Blackmail: The Sordid Union Between Intelligence and Crime that Gave Rise to Jeffrey Epstein, Volumes 1 & 2  By: Whitney Alyse Webb Briefly, what are these books about? The alleged connections between organized crime and national intelligence agencies which led to the numerous illicit operations including Watergate, Iran-Contra, the JFK Assassination, and of course the entire Jeffrey Epstein mess.  A key component of these operations was the tactic of collecting blackmail and using it to convince people to do things they otherwise wouldn't. What's the author's angle? Charitably, Webb is an autodidact with an enormous command of facts and connections. Uncharitably, she's someone with a weak evidentiary filter making conspiratorial mountains out of tenuously connected molehills. Who should read these books? No one should just read them. You should either ignore them or study them intently as part of an “Intro to Conspiracy Theories” curriculum. Of the two I would recommend the former. Read on to see why. I- How does one approach a book like this?  ...

The Ocean at the End of the Lane by: Neil Gaiman There Is No Antimemetics Division by: qntm The Man Who Had All the Luck by: Arthur Miller How Green Was My Valley by: Richard Llewellyn Theft of Fire: Orbital Space #1 by: Devon Eriksen Assassin's Apprentice (The Farseer Trilogy, Book 1) by: Robin Hobb Royal Assassin (The Farseer Trilogy, Book 2) by: Robin Hobb

With the enormous increase in the power of AI (specifically LLMs) people are using them for all sorts of things, hoping to find areas where they're better, or at least cheaper than humans. FiveThirtyNine (get it?) is one such attempt, and they claim that AI can do forecasting better than humans.  Scott Alexander, of Astral Codex Ten, reviewed the service and concluded that they still have a long way to go. I have no doubt that this is the case, but one can imagine that this will not always be the case. What then? My assertion would be that at the point when AI forecasting does “work” (should that ever happen) it will make the problems of superforecasting even worse.2  I- The problems of superforecasting What are the problems of superforecasting? ...

The Untethered Soul: The Journey Beyond Yourself by: Michael A. Singer Chatter: The Voice in Our Head, Why It Matters, and How to Harness It by: Ethan Kross The Ruthless Elimination of Hurry: How to Stay Emotionally Healthy and Spiritually Alive in the Chaos of the Modern World by: John Mark Comer Dumb Money: The GameStop Short Squeeze and the Ragtag Group of Amateur Traders That Brought Wall Street to Its Knees by: Ben Mezrich Clear Thinking: Turning Ordinary Moments into Extraordinary Results by: Shane Parrish

Journey of the Mind: How Thinking Emerged from Chaos by: Ogi Ogas and Sai Gaddam Against the Grain: A Deep History of the Earliest States by: James C. Scott This post represents a new feature (experiment?) I plan to occasionally write posts which take advantage of one or more books I read recently, but which aren't actually reviews of those books. See, for example, my last post: Superminds, States, and the Domestication of Humans.  Despite the fact that the books feature heavily in these posts, I assume my adoring fans still want actual reviews. But it doesn't make sense to wait until the next book review collection for those reviews to appear, nor does it make sense to cram the reviews into the original essay which was about something else. And so I thought that instead I would have the reviews quickly follow the essay as sort of supplementary material. So that's what this is. Let me know what you think. 

How durable is the state? How resistant is it to being overthrown? How closely does it reflect our desires? Is it possible it has its own desires? But maybe more importantly how does all this affect the possibility of a very close election in November?