Podcasts about superforecasting the art

Hi, and welcome to The Long View. I'm Dan Lefkovitz, strategist for Morningstar Indexes. Our guest this week is Daniel Rasmussen. He's the founder and portfolio manager of Verdad Advisors, a hedge fund. Before starting Verdad, Dan worked at Bain Capital Private Equity and Bridgewater Associates. He's a member of the investment committee of the trustees of donations of the Episcopal Church and he's a contributor to The Wall Street Journal. Dan is author of the new book, The Humble Investor: How to find a winning edge in a surprising world. His earlier book was American Uprising: The Untold Story of America's Largest Slave Revolt. Dan holds a bachelor's from Harvard and an MBA from Stanford. Dan, thanks so much for joining us on The Long View.BackgroundBioVerdadThe Humble Investor: How to find a winning edge in a surprising worldAmerican Uprising: The Untold Story of America's Largest Slave RevoltForecasting“Waves in Ship Prices and Investment,” by Sam Hanson and Robin Greenwood, Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 2014.Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, by Philip Tetlock“Gaining Edge by Forecasting Volatility and Correlations,” by Dan Rasmussen, Chris Satterthwaite, and Lionel Smoler Schatz, verdadcap.com, Oct. 30, 2023.Value Investing“Where the Value Investing Strategy Still Works,” by Dan Rasmussen, ft.com, May 23, 2024.“Factors from Scratch: A Look Back, and Forward, at How, When and Why Factors Work,” by Chris Meredith, Jesse Livermore, and Patrick O'Shaughnessy, osam.com, May 2018.“The Size Factor: Small Caps Are Trading at the Steepest Discount to Large Caps in Decades,” by Dan Rasmussen and Brian Chingono, verdadcap.com, Aug. 22, 2022.“The Small Cap Amplifier,” by Dan Rasmussen and Brian Chingono, verdadcap.com, Oct. 21, 2024.“Explaining International Valuations,” by Dan Rasmussen, verdadcap.com, Jan. 27, 2025.Private Credit and High Yield“The ‘Fool's Yield' of Private Credit,” by Jamie Powell, ft.com, Jan. 28, 2020.“Sizing Private Equity Allocations,” by Dan Rasmussen, verdadcap.com, May 13, 2024.“The Best Macro Indicator: Why You Should Be Following High-Yield Spreads,” by Dan Rasmussen, verdadcap.com, May 17, 2021.Crisis Investing“Crisis Investing in Europe: The Unlikely Winners in the Most Difficult Times,” by Dan Rasmussen and Brian Chingono, verdadcap.com, May 16, 2022.“EM Crisis Investing, A Deeper Dive: Understanding the Factors at Play in Emerging Markets,” by Verdad Research, verdadcap.com, May 3, 2022.

Alex speaks with Alex Edmans about his book May Contain Lies, examining the widespread issue of misinformation and exploring how factors like confirmation bias, cognitive shortcuts, and misleading statistics can shape public opinion. They discuss practical strategies for identifying and avoiding misinformation, along with the broader societal impact of misinterpreted data. References "May Contain Lies" by Alex Edmans Link: https://a.co/d/aX2AJ0I "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman Link: https://www.amazon.ca/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0385676530 "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction" by Philip E. Tetlock Link: https://www.amazon.ca/Superforecasting-Art-Science-Philip-Tetlock/dp/0804136696 "Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think" by Hans Rosling Link: https://www.amazon.ca/Factfulness-Reasons-World-Things-Better/dp/1250107814 "The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don't" by Nate Silver Link: https://www.amazon.ca/Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions-Fail/dp/0143125087 "How to Lie with Statistics" by Darrell Huff Link: https://www.amazon.ca/How-Lie-Statistics-Darrell-Huff/dp/0393310728 "Start With Why" by Simon Sinek Link: https://www.amazon.ca/Start-Why-Leaders-Inspire-Everyone/dp/1591846447 Thanks to our patrons including: Amy Willis, Kris Rondolo, and Christopher McDonald. To become a patron, go to patreon.com/curioustask

Doomsday clock trivia; the origins of the clock; over-interpreting what time it is; becoming desensitized to global threats; public education and advocacy around existential risk; risk assessment by the global elite; the perils of expert prediction; and Marcus thinks this is a trick questionSubscribe and leave a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choicePlease send us your questions or comments! Send us an email or leave us a voicemailSupport the podcast by visiting our online store at cheaptalk.shopFurther reading:“2024 Doomsday Clock Announcement.” 2024. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.“Doomsday Clock Timeline.” 2023. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.Kennette Benedict. 2023. “Answers to Common Questions.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. “Global Risks Report 2024.” 2024. World Economic Forum. Philip E. Fetlock and Dan Gardner. 2015. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Crown Books.Seth Walder. 2023. “Going for 2 down 8 points: Explaining NFL analytics strategy.” ESPN.com.See all Cheap Talk episodes

Rick Howard, the CSO, Chief Analyst, and Senior Fellow at N2K Cyber, discusses the current state of cybersecurity risk forecasting with guests Fred Kneip, CyberGRX's founder and President of ProcessUnity, and Kevin Richards, Cyber Risk Solutions President. Howard, R., 2023. Cybersecurity First Principles: A Reboot of Strategy and Tactics [Book]. Wiley. URL: https://www.amazon.com/Cybersecurity-First-Principles-Strategy-Tactics/dp/1394173083.   Howard, R., 2023. Bonus Episode: 2023 Cybersecurity Canon Hall of Fame inductee: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Dr Phil Tetlock and Dr Dan Gardner. [Podcast]. The CyberWire. URL https://thecyberwire.com/podcasts/cso-perspectives/5567/notes Howard, R., 2022. Risk Forecasting with Bayes Rule: A practical example. [Podcast]. The CyberWire. URL https://thecyberwire.com/podcasts/cso-perspectives/88/notes Howard, R, 2023. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction [Book review]. Cybersecurity Canon Project. URL icdt.osu.edu/superforecasting-art-and-science-prediction. Howard, R., 2022. Two risk forecasting data scientists, and Rick, walk into a bar. [Podcast]. The CyberWire. URL https://thecyberwire.com/podcasts/cso-perspectives/89/notes Howard, R., Freund, J., Jones, J., 2016. 2016 Cyber Canon Inductee - Measuring and Managing Information Risk: A FAIR approach [Interview]. YouTube. URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxBpAnSBaGM Hubbard , D.W., Seiersen, R., 2016. How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk [Book]. Goodreads. URL https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/26518108-how-to-measure-anything-in-cybersecurity-risk Clark, B., Seiersen , R., Hubbard, D., 2017. “How To Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk” - Cybersecurity Canon 2017 [Interview]. YouTube. URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2o_mAavdabg&t=93s Freund, J., Jones, J., 2014. Measuring and Managing Information Risk: A FAIR Approach [Book]. Goodreads. URL https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/22637927-measuring-and-managing-information-risk Katz, D., 2021. Corporate Governance Update: “Materiality” in America and Abroad [Essay]. The Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance. URL https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2021/05/01/corporate-governance-update-materiality-in-america-and-abroad/ Posner, C., 2023. SEC Adopts Final Rules on Cybersecurity Disclosure [Essay]. The Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance. URL https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2023/08/09/sec-adopts-final-rules-on-cybersecurity-disclosure/ Linden, L.V., Kneip, F., Squier, Suzie , 2022. Threats Across the Globe & Benchmarking with CyberGRX [Podcast]. Retail & Hospitality ISAC Podcast. URL https://pca.st/a49enjb1 Lizárraga, C.J., 2023. Improving the Quality of Cybersecurity Risk Management Disclosures [Essay]. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. URL https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/lizarraga-statement-cybersecurity-072623 Staff, 2022. Benchmarking Cyber-Risk Quantification [Survey]. Gartner. URL https://www.gartner.com/en/publications/benchmarking-cyber-risk-quantification Tetlock, P.E., Gardner, D., 2015. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction [Book]. Goodreads. URL https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23995360-superforecasting Winterfeld, S., 2014. How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk [Book review]. Cybersecurity Canon Project. URL https://icdt.osu.edu/how-measure-anything-cybersecurity-risk

Bryan Caplan discusses political irrationality, partisan loyalty, and more.Follow @IdeasHavingSexx on Twitter.Today's book: Voters as Mad Scientists: Essays on Political IrrationalityBryan's recommendations: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction & Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? both by Philip TetlockBryan's Twitter, Author Page, Substack, and personal website.

  Maura Feddersen, behavioral research manager at Swiss Re, is an economist who previously worked in the economics team of two of the Big Four Accountancy firms: PwC and KPMG.   She got switched on to behavioral economics as “I always felt there was something a bit missing in economics. [Economics] assumes that people act quite rationally…and that was just not the case. Behavioral economics brings together the economics, as well as insights from psychology, to try to assess how humans really make decisions”.   This  fascinating episode with Maura, uncovers the lessons that FP&A teams can learn from behavioral economics to improve forecasting and the power of “knowing what knowing what you don't know.”   This episode includes      New research revealing that investors predictions are only slightly more accurate than a chimp How new forecasting methods improved accuracy at Swiss Re by 5% The cognitive biases we need to be aware of that undermine accuracy (such as the dangers of groupthink) Meryl Streep's Oscar nominations and your forecast confidence levels tested  How to try and manage cognitive bias The true economic impact of uncertainty in the global economy and in your business  The opportunities and limits of AI forecasting  Using RIO (Rational Impartial Observers) The biggest failure in her career Favorite Excel function Her biggest advice for someone starting out to get really good at forecasting    Further reading    Actuaries magazine: So You Think You Can Underwrite [Maura Fedderson]    Insurers, take heed of these 3 common forecasting fallacies [by Maura Feddersen]    Recommended books   Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Paperback - Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan, the Impact of the Highly Improbable    Annie Duke, How to decide   Adam Grant, Think Again, The Power of Knowing what you Don't Know    Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment   Read the full transcript and blog Follow Maura Fedderson on LinkedIn YouTube video Follow Paul Barnhurst on LinkedIn   Follow Datarails on LinkedIn   FP&A Today is brought to you by Datarails.   Datarails is the financial planning and analysis platform that automates data consolidation, reporting and planning, while enabling finance teams to continue using their own Excel spreadsheets and financial models.   Get in touch at www.datarails.com   For AFP FP&A Continuing Education credit please complete the course via the Earmark Ap, must pass the quiz with 80% accuracy and send the completed certificate to pbarnhust@thefpandaguy.com for issuance of 1 hour of credit toward your AFP FP&A Certification.   

Rick Howard, N2K's CSO and The CyberWire's Chief Analyst and Senior Fellow, interviews Dan Gardner about this 2023 Cybersecurity Canon Hall of Fame book: “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.”

Pro Sports Bettors, Alex Vella & Neel Shah, discuss ways in which to improve your handicapping or originating in sports betting, with the help of Dan Gardner and Philip E. Tetlock's book - Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Neel - https://twitter.com/mybettorlife Alex - https://twitter.com/AlexVella_   1 WEEK FREE TRIAL OF TRADEMATE http://tradematesports.com/   TRADEMATE CORE A tool for new and aspiring sports bettors and traders: https://tradematesports.com/core    TRADEMATE PRO A tool for professional sports bettors and traders: https://tradematesports.com/pro   SOCIAL LINKS: Instagram ➠ https://www.instagram.com/tradematesports/ Facebook ➠ https://www.facebook.com/TrademateSports Twitter ➠ https://twitter.com/TrademateSports   BLOG:  Learn more about how you can improve your betting on our blog ➠ http://blog.tradematesports.com

Hugo speaks with JD Long, agricultural economist, quant, and stochastic modeler, about decision making under uncertainty and how we can use our knowledge of risk, uncertainty, probabilistic thinking, causal inference, and more to help us use data science and machine learning to make better decisions in an uncertain world. This is part 2 of a two part conversation in which we delve into decision making under uncertainty. Feel free to check out part 1 here (https://vanishinggradients.fireside.fm/15) but this episode should also stand alone. Why am I speaking to JD about all of this? Because not only is he a wild conversationalist with a real knack for explaining hard to grok concepts with illustrative examples and useful stories, but he has worked for many years in re-insurance, that's right, not insurance but re-insurance – these are the people who insure the insurers so if anyone can actually tell us about risk and uncertainty in decision making, it's him! In part 1, we discussed risk, uncertainty, probabilistic thinking, and simulation, all with a view towards improving decision making. In this, part 2, we discuss the ins and outs of decision making under uncertainty, including How data science can be more tightly coupled with the decision function in organisations; Some common mistakes and failure modes of making decisions under uncertainty; Heuristics for principled decision-making in data science; The intersection of model building, storytelling, and cognitive biases to keep in mind; As JD says, and I paraphrase, “You may think you train your models, but your models are really training you.” Links Vanishing Gradients' new YouTube channel! (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_NafIo-Ku2loOLrzm45ABA) JD on twitter (https://twitter.com/CMastication) Executive Data Science, episode 5 of Vanishing Gradients, in which Jim Savage and Hugo talk through decision making and why you should always be integrating your loss function over your posterior (https://vanishinggradients.fireside.fm/5) Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_by_Randomness) Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting:_The_Art_and_Science_of_Prediction) Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke (https://www.penguin.com.au/books/thinking-in-bets-9780735216372) The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail by Nate Silver (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Signal_and_the_Noise) Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow)

Hugo speaks with JD Long, agricultural economist, quant, and stochastic modeler, about decision making under uncertainty and how we can use our knowledge of risk, uncertainty, probabilistic thinking, causal inference, and more to help us use data science and machine learning to make better decisions in an uncertain world. This is part 1 of a two part conversation. In this, part 1, we discuss risk, uncertainty, probabilistic thinking, and simulation, all with a view towards improving decision making and we draw on examples from our personal lives, the pandemic, our jobs, the reinsurance space, and the corporate world. In part 2, we'll get into the nitty gritty of decision making under uncertainty. As JD says, and I paraphrase, “You may think you train your models, but your models are really training you.” Links Vanishing Gradients' new YouTube channel! () JD on twitter (https://twitter.com/CMastication) Executive Data Science, episode 5 of Vanishing Gradients, in which Jim Savage and Hugo talk through decision making and why you should always be integrating your loss function over your posterior (https://vanishinggradients.fireside.fm/5) Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_by_Randomness) Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting:_The_Art_and_Science_of_Prediction) Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke (https://www.penguin.com.au/books/thinking-in-bets-9780735216372) The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail by Nate Silver (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Signal_and_the_Noise) Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow)

In this week's pod, we welcomed Alan Mosca to discuss whether machine learning and AI can really make a difference.Alan is the co-founder and CTO of nPlan, where he leads technology, research, and product, whilst developing thought leadership about forecasting and risk. Before nPlan, Alan spent 7 years as a technologist in quantitative finance, on live trading systems, research, and front-office in both high-frequency trading and asset management.Alan has extensive experience in algorithm design and software engineering and holds a BEng in Computer Engineering, MSc in Computer Science, and doctoral research in machine learning theory. The main topics we discussed on the podcast were as follows: Machine Learning (ML) is a sub-branch of AI although the terms are often used interchangeablyML is useful for spotting really complex patternsWhen approaching major projects, machine learning aims to capture the data and experienceThe aim is to make the data simple enough for business leaders to understandAutomation will rescue some project information by providing consistency on transactional actionsThe key to understanding how to make good decisions is to understand the process they are going through to make it (see double diamond process)“Go to their bus stop”!Machine Learning can not and will not fix cultural issues within projects and organisationsML/IA will not replace humans on projects, it can only be used to inform decision makers to improve performanceCritical Path Methodology was great when tools were not available to do multiple scenarios on activitiesUse the current version of the future to make the next version of the future betterCould projects start using a decision log and track the inputs used to inform the decisions? Here are links to some of the topics we discussed:·        Double Diamond Decision Process: https://www.designcouncil.org.uk/our-work/news-opinion/double-diamond-universally-accepted-depiction-design-process/·        Buyer Decision Process: https://www.iedunote.com/buyer-decision-process·        Cognitive Biases: https://thedecisionlab.com/biases·        Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Phillip Tetlock, Dan Gardner: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock/dp/1847947158/ref=asc_df_1847947158/?tag=googshopuk-21&linkCode=df0&hvadid=310805565966&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=12494366783115682348&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9045901&hvtargid=pla-454864998863&psc=1&th=1&psc=1·        nPlan Experimental Research Department: --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/project-chatter-podcast/message

He grew up breathing Kannada literature -- and he also embraced the globalised world. Sugata Srinivasaraju joins Amit Varma in episode 277 of The Seen and the Unseen to discuss this confluence of the old and the new, the near and the far, his society and the world.  Also check out: 1. Sugata Srinivasaraju in Outlook, ToI/Mumbai Mirror, New Indian Express, The Wire, Mint, Twitter and his own website. 2. Furrows in a Field -- Sugata Srinivasaraju. 3. Pickles from Home: The Worlds of a Bilingual -- Sugata Srinivasaraju. 4. Keeping Faith with the Mother Tongue -- Sugata Srinivasaraju. 5. Sugata Srinivasaraju on his father, Chi Srinivasaraju: 1, 2, 3. 6. Maharashtra Politics Unscrambled -- Episode 151 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Sujata Anandan). 7. Dodda Alada Mara (Big Banyan Tree). 8. GP Rajarathnam, AR Krishnashastry, P Lankesh and KS Nissar Ahmed on Wikipedia. 9. The Tell Me Why series of encyclopedias -- Arkady Leokum. 10. Stendhal, Honoré de Balzac, Victor Hugo and Charles Baudelaire on Amazon. 11. Rayaru Bandaru Mavana Manege -- The KS Narasimhaswamy poem Sugata translated. 12. Phoenix and Four Other Mime Plays -- Chi Srinivasaraju (translated by Sugata Srinivasaraju, who tweeted about it here.). 13. Ahobala Shankara, V Seetharamaiah, Roland Barthes, Michel Foucault, Jacques Derrida, KV Narayana, Noam Chomsky, DR Nagaraj, Jorge Luis Borges and Tejaswini Niranjana. 14. Lawrence Weschler on how Akumal Ramachander discovered Harold Shapinsky. 15. AK Ramanujan and Gopalakrishna Adiga. 16. The Penguin Book of Socialist Verse -- Edited by Alan Bold. 17. Gandhi as Mahatma: Gorakhpur District, Eastern UP, 1921-22 -- Shahid Amin. 18. Kraurya -- Girish Kasaravalli. 19. Deconstructing Derrida -- Sugata Srinivasaraju. 20. Yaava Mohana Murali -- Gopalakrishna Adiga's poem turned into a song. 21. Ram Guha Reflects on His Life -- Episode 266 of The Seen and the Unseen. 22. Understanding Gandhi. Part 1: Mohandas — Episode 104 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ram Guha). 23. Understanding Gandhi. Part 2: Mahatma — Episode 105 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ram Guha). 24. Modern South India: A History from the 17th Century to our Times -- Rajmohan Gandhi. 25. Ki Ram Nagaraja at Book Brahma. 26. A Map of Misreading -- Harold Bloom. 27. The Singer of Tales -- Albert Lord and David Elmer. 28. ಪಂಪ ಭಾರತ ದೀಪಿಕೆ: Pampa Bharatha Deepike -- DL Narasimhachar. 29. The Open Eyes: A Journey Through Karnakata -- Dom Moraes. 30. Dom Moraes on DR Bendre's love for numbers. 31. DR Bendre, Kuvempu, Shamba Joshi, MM Kalburgi, Shivaram Karanth, VK Gokak and Chandrashekhar Patil. 32. Da Baa Kulkarni, Sriranga, Nabaneeta Dev Sen, Bhisham Sahni, Kartar Singh Duggal and HY Sharada Prasad. 33. His Will Was His God -- Sugata Srinivasaraju on HY Sharada Prasad. 34. Jeremy Seabrook on Amazon. 35. Aakar Patel Is Full of Hope -- Episode 270 of The Seen and the Unseen. 36. The Rise and Fall of the Bilingual Intellectual — Ramachandra Guha. 37. The Life and Times of Mrinal Pande -- Episode 263 of The Seen and the Unseen. 38. Sara Rai Inhales Literature -- Episode 255 of The Seen and the Unseen. 39. The Art of Translation -- Episode 168 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Arunava Sinha). 40. Negotiating Two Worlds, Bilingualism As A Cultural Idea -- Sugata Srinivasaraju delivers the HY Sharada Prasad Memorial Lecture. 41. Karunaalu Baa Belake -- A Kannada version of 'Lead, Kindly Light'. 42. Liberal impulses of our regional languages -- Sugata Srinivasaraju. 43. Why Resisting Hindi is No Longer Enough -- Sugata Srinivasaraju. 44, The Indianness of Indian Food -- Episode 95 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vikram Doctor). 45. Steven Van Zandt: Springsteen, the death of rock and Van Morrison on Covid — Richard Purden. 46. Roam Research and Zettelkasten. 47. Sixteen Stormy Days — Tripurdaman Singh. 48. The First Assault on Our Constitution — Episode 194 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Tripurdaman Singh). 49. Nehru's Debates -- Episode 262 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Tripurdaman Singh and Adeel Hussain). 50. Speaking of Siva -- Ak Ramanujan's translations of the Vacanas. 51. Not Waving but Drowning -- Stevie Smith. 52. Pictures on a Page -- Harold Evans. 53. Notes From Another India -- Jeremy Seabrook. 54. Good Times, Bad Times -- Harold Evans. 55. John Pilger on Amazon. 56. Sugata Srinivasaraju's pieces in Outlook in 2005 on the Infosys land scam: 1, 2. 57. ‘Bellary Is Mine' -- Sugata Srinivasaraju. 58. Deca Log: 1995-2005. A history in ten-and-a-half chapters, through the eyes of Outlook -- Sugata Srinivasaraju. 59. The Sanjay Story: From Anand Bhavan To Amethi -- Vinod Mehta. 60. Lucknow Boy: A Memoir -- Vinod Mehta. 61. Remembering Mr. Shawn's New Yorker -- Ved Mehta. 62. Off the Record: Untold Stories from a Reporter's Diary -- Ajith Pillai. 63. A Town Offers Its Shoulder -- Sugata Srinivasaraju. 64. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction -- Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. 65. Dhanya Rajendran Fights the Gaze -- Episode 267 of The Seen and the Unseen. 66. The Story of an Income Tax Search — Dhanya Rajendran on Instagram. 67. George Plimpton, 76; 'Paper Lion' author, longtime literary editor, amateur athlete -- David Mehegan. 68. Does The Paris Review Get a Second Act? -- Charles McGrath on literary magazines as "showcases of idealism." 69. My Father's Suitcase -- Orhan Pamuk's Nobel Prize lecture. 70. Gandhi's Assassin: The Making of Nathuram Godse and His Idea of India -- Dhirendra K Jha. 71. Harmony in the Boudoir -- Mark Strand. 72. Of Human Bondage -- W Somerset Maugham. 73. Man's Worldly Goods -- Leo Huberman. 74. Autobiography -- Bertrand Russell. 75. Graham Greene, Joseph Conrad, Gabriel Garcia Marquez, Jorge Luis Borges, Honoré de Balzac, Gustave Flaubert, Victor Hugo, Charles Dickens and George Orwell on Amazon. 76. Madame Bovary -- Gustave Flaubert. 77. Reflections on Gandhi -- George Orwell. 78. The Tyranny of Merit -- Michael Sandel. 79. Home in the World: A Memoir -- Amartya Sen. 80. Living to Tell the Tale -- Gabriel Garcia Marquez. 81. Ayodhya - The Dark Night and Ascetic Games by Dhirendra Jha. 82. Team of Rivals -- Doris Kearns Goodwin. 83. My Last Sigh -- Luis Bunuel. 84. Interview with History -- Oriana Fallaci. 85. Ryszard Kapuscinski on Amazon. 86. Journalism as Literature -- Salman Rushdie on Ryszard Kapuscinski. 87. Mallikarjun Mansur, Bhimsen Joshi and Kumar Gandharva on Spotify. 88. Vachanas sung by Mallikarjun Mansur and Basavaraja Rajguru. 89. Outlander, Knightfall and Money Heist on Netflix. 90. Sugata Srinivasaraju's Twitter thread on the songs of DR Bendre. This episode is sponsored by The Desi Crime Podcast. You'll find them on all podcast apps. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! The illustration for this episode is by Nishant Jain aka Sneaky Artist. Check out his work on Twitter, Instagram and Substack.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Long-Term Future Fund: July 2021 grant recommendations, published by abergal on January 18, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Introduction The Long-Term Future Fund made the following grants through July 2021: Total grants: $1,427,019 Number of grantees: 18 Payout date: July 2021 Report authors: Asya Bergal (Chair), Oliver Habryka, Adam Gleave, Evan Hubinger, Luisa Rodriguez This payout report is substantially delayed, but we're hoping to get our next payout report covering grants through November out very soon. Updates since our last payout report: We took on Luisa Rodriguez as a guest manager in June and July. We switched from a round-based system to rolling applications. We received $675,000 from Jaan Tallinn through the Survival and Flourishing Fund. Public payout reports for EA Funds grantees are now optional. Consider applying for funding from the Long-Term Future Fund here. Grant reports Note: Many of the grant reports below are very detailed. Public reports are optional for our grantees, and we run all of our payout reports by grantees before publishing them. We think carefully about what information to include to maximize transparency while respecting grantees' preferences. We encourage anyone who thinks they could use funding to positively influence the long-term trajectory of humanity to apply for a grant. Grant reports by Asya Bergal Any views expressed below are my personal views and not the views of my employer, Open Philanthropy. In particular, receiving funding from the Long-Term Future Fund should not be read as an indication that an organization or individual has an elevated likelihood of receiving funding from Open Philanthropy. Correspondingly, not receiving funding from the Long-Term Future Fund (or any risks and reservations noted in the public payout report) should not be read as an indication that an organization or individual has a diminished likelihood of receiving funding from Open Philanthropy. Ezra Karger, Pavel Atanasov, Philip Tetlock ($572,000) Existential risk forecasting tournaments. This grant is to Ezra Karger, Pavel Atanasov, and Philip Tetlock to run an existential risk forecasting tournament. Philip Tetlock is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania; he is known in part for his work on The Good Judgment Project, a multi-year study of the feasibility of improving the accuracy of probability judgments, and for his book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, which details findings from that study. Pavel Atanasov is a decision psychologist currently working as a Co-PI on two NSF projects focused on predicting the outcomes of clinical trials. He previously worked as a post-doctoral scholar with Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the Good Judgement Project, and as a consultant for the SAGE research team that won the last season of IARPA's Hybrid Forecasting Competition. Ezra Karger is an applied microeconomist working in the research group of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago; he is a superforecaster who has participated in several IARPA-sponsored forecasting tournaments and has worked with Philip Tetlock on some of the methods proposed in the tournament below. Paraphrasing from the proposal, the original plan for the tournament was as follows: Have a panel of subject-matter experts (SMEs) choose 10 long-run questions about existential risks and 20 short-run, resolvable, early warning indicator questions as inputs for the long-run questions. Ask the SMEs to submit forecasts and rationales for each question. Divide the superforecasters into two groups. Ask each person to forecast the same questions as the SMEs and explain those forecasts. For short-run questions, evaluate forecasts using a proper scoring rule, like Brier or logarithmic scores. For long-run questions, use reciprocal scoring to incentivize ac...

What we think about China depends in large measure on how we think about China. As a nation of 1.4 billion people in the throes of world-historic change, it's more important than ever to examine our own mental models when it comes to our understanding of China. This week on the Sinica Podcast, Kaiser kicks off an informal series on "thinking about thinking about China" with a conversation with Anthea Roberts and Nicolas Lamp, co-authors of the book Six Faces of Globalization: Who Wins, Who Loses, and Why it Matters. While the book focuses on globalization, in which China has been a central actor, it's really a book about ways to approach all complex issues — and will equip you with immensely useful ways to conceptualize any number of problems related to China. Kaiser calls the book "an upgrade to [his] mental operating system." Please enjoy this fascinating discussion with two brilliant scholars.5:36 – What are the building blocks of a "narrative?"8:08 – The six main narratives on globalization laid out26:23 – The challenge of articulating problematic or objectionable narratives in good faith53:54 – How China fits into the six "Western" narratives on globalization56:55 – Chinese perspectives on globalization1:11:58 – Different metaphors for integrative complexity1:21:01 – Disciplines and training that prepare or predispose people toward complexity1:24:33 – Name-checking the influencesA transcript of this conversation is available on SupChina.com.Recommendations:Anthea: The Master and His Emissary, by Ian McGilchristNicolas: The Once and Future Worker, by Oren Cass; and the China Trade Monitor website, run by Simon Lester and Huan Zhu.Kaiser: "China's Reform Generation Adapts to Life in the Middle Class," by Peter HesslerOther Links: This episode mentions a great many books and authors. Here's a partial list!Isaiah Berlin, The Hedgehog and the FoxDaniel Kahneman, Thinking, Slow and FastHoward Gardner, Multiple Intelligences: New Horizons in Theory and Practice; and his memoir, A Synthesizing MindPhilip Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Jonathan Haidt, The Righteous Mind: Why Good People are Divided by Politics and ReligionPaul Blustein, Schism: China, America, and the Fracturing of the Global Trading SystemJulia Galef, The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don'tDavid Epstein, Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized WorldC.P. Snow, The Two Cultures and the Scientific RevolutionEdward O. Wilson, Consilience: The Unity of Knowledge George Lakoff, Moral Politics: How Liberals and Conservatives ThinkGareth Morgan, Images of OrganizationSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Can we predict the future more accurately?It's a question we humans have grappled with since the dawn of civilization — one that has massive implications for how we run our organizations, how we make policy decisions, and how we live our everyday lives.It's also the question that Philip Tetlock, a psychologist at the University of Pennsylvania and a co-author of “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction,” has dedicated his career to answering. In 2011, he recruited and trained a team of ordinary citizens to compete in a forecasting tournament sponsored by the U.S. intelligence community. Participants were asked to place numerical probabilities from 0 to 100 percent on questions like “Will North Korea launch a new multistage missile in the next year” and “Is Greece going to leave the eurozone in the next six months?” Tetlock's group of amateur forecasters would go head-to-head against teams of academics as well as career intelligence analysts, including those from the C.I.A., who had access to classified information that Tetlock's team didn't have.The results were shocking, even to Tetlock. His team won the competition by such a large margin that the government agency funding the competition decided to kick everyone else out, and just study Tetlock's forecasters — the best of whom were dubbed “superforecasters” — to see what intelligence experts might learn from them.So this conversation is about why some people, like Tetlock's “superforecasters,” are so much better at predicting the future than everyone else — and about the intellectual virtues, habits of mind, and ways of thinking that the rest of us can learn to become better forecasters ourselves. It also explores Tetlock's famous finding that the average expert is roughly as accurate as “a dart-throwing chimpanzee” at predicting future events, the inverse correlation between a person's fame and their ability to make accurate predictions, how superforecasters approach real-life questions like whether robots will replace white-collar workers, why government bureaucracies are often resistant to adopt the tools of superforecasting and more.Mentioned:Expert Political Judgment by Philip E. Tetlock“What do forecasting rationales reveal about thinking patterns of top geopolitical forecasters?” by Christopher W. Karvetski et al.Book recommendations:Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel KahnemanEnlightenment Now by Steven PinkerPerception and Misperception in International Politics by Robert JervisThis episode is guest-hosted by Julia Galef, a co-founder of the Center for Applied Rationality, host of the “Rationally Speaking” podcast and author of “The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't.” You can follow her on Twitter @JuliaGalef. (Learn more about the other guest hosts during Ezra's parental leave here.)Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of "The Ezra Klein Show" at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast, and you can find Ezra on Twitter @ezraklein. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.“The Ezra Klein Show” is produced by Annie Galvin, Jeff Geld and Rogé Karma; fact-checking by Michelle Harris; original music by Isaac Jones; mixing by Jeff Geld; audience strategy by Shannon Busta. Special thanks to Kristin Lin and Alison Bruzek.

My guests today are Renata Quintini and Roseanne Wincek, co-founders and managing directors of Renegade Partners. Before launching Renegade, Renata and Roseanne were partners at high-profile VC firms, Lux Capital and IVP.    During our conversation, we explore their careers and what led them to launch Renegade. We cover what it means to invest at the “Supercritical Stage” in venture and dive into a variety of topics around this theme. We then discuss their investing philosophies more broadly, covering what best-in-class talent pipelines look like, what quality revenue means to them, and what worries them most in search of businesses with outsized potential returns. I think this episode highlights that even as competition in venture has intensified - the best VC partners can offer more than just capital.  I hope you enjoy my conversation with Renata and Roseanne.   For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page here.   ------   This episode is brought to you by Tegus. Tegus has built the most extensive primary information platform available for investors.   With Tegus, you can learn everything you'd want to know about a company in an on-demand digital platform. Investors share their expert calls, allowing others to instantly access more than 20,000 calls on Affirm, Teladoc, Roblox, or almost any company of interest. All you have to do is log in. Visit tegus.co/patrick to learn more.   ------   This episode is brought to you by Hall Capital Partners. Hall Capital is always looking for exceptional investment talent at any stage and size, so if you are raising capital or looking for a career change in the San Francisco or New York areas, you should check them out at hallcapital.com or e-mail at invest@hallcapital.com.    ------   Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, Inc. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.    Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus   Show Notes [00:03:57] - [First question] - What the process of starting a new investment firm was like [00:05:22] - Why the world needs another venture firm [00:06:48] - The biggest takeaway from Renata's experience at a start-up Venture firm [00:07:51] - The inspiration for Renegade [00:11:48] - The most common mistakes made in the early stages of a company [00:15:14] - Key items to look into first when evaluating companies  [00:18:04] - Internal superpowers: helping a founder use their strengths [00:23:46] - Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction [00:24:04] - What makes a good customer call [00:25:44] - How more than one Operating Partner changes the conversation and reveals more [00:27:59] - How businesses have changed in the past few years [00:30:31] - What companies that have good talent pipelines do to set themselves apart [00:35:36] - Lessons learned from working with Coda and its CEO, Shishir Mehrotra  [00:38:12] - Lessons learned from working with MasterClass [00:41:21] - Differentiating between high and low-quality revenue when evaluating a company [00:47:39] - What scares them about investing in outliers [00:51:07] - Improvements made as investors and catalysts for those changes [00:53:48] - Building an organization that will disrupt itself [00:56:43] - The kindest thing anyone has ever done for them  

We're back! Apologies for the delay, but Vaden got married and Ben was summoned to be an astronaut on the next billionaire's vacation to Venus. This week we're talking about how to forecast the future (with this one simple and easy trick! Astrologers hate them!). Specifically, we're diving into Philip Tetlock's work on Superforecasting (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting:_The_Art_and_Science_of_Prediction). So what's the deal? Is it possible to "harness the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Good_Judgment_Project)? Or is the whole thing just a result of sloppy statistics? We believe the latter is likely to be true with probability 64.9% - no, wait, 66.1%. Intro segment: "The Sentience Debate": The moral value of shrimps, insects, and oysters (https://www.facebook.com/103405457813911/videos/254164216090604) Relevant timestamps: 10:05: "Even if there's only a one in one hundred chance, or one in one thousand chance, that insects are sentient given current information, and if we're killing trillions or quadrillions of insects in ways that are preventable or avoidable or that we can in various ways mitigate that harm... then we should consider that possibility." 25:47: "If you're all going to work on pain in invertebrates, I pity you in many respects... In my previous work, I was used to running experiments and getting a clear answer, and I could say what these animals do and what they don't do. But when I started to think about what they might be feeling, you meet this frustration, that after maybe about 15 years of research, if someone asks me do they feel pain, my answer is 'maybe'... a strong 'maybe'... you cannot discount the possibility." 46:47: "It is not 100% clear to me that plants are non sentient. I do think that animals including insects are much more likely to be sentient than plants are, but I would not have a credence of zero that plants are sentient." 1:01:59: "So the hard problem I would like to ask the panel is: If you were to compare the moral weight of one ant to the moral weight of one human, what ratio would you put? How much more is a human worth than an ant? 100:1? 1000:1? 10:1? Or maybe 1:1? ... Let's start with Jamie." Main References: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting:_The_Art_and_Science_of_Prediction) How Policymakers Can Improve Crisis Planning (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-13/better-crystal-ball) The Good Judgment Project - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Good_Judgment_Project) Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?: Tetlock, Philip E.: 9780691128719: Books - Amazon.ca (https://www.amazon.ca/Expert-Political-Judgment-Good-Know/dp/0691128715) Additional references mentioned in the episode: The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Drunkard%27s_Walk) The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Black_Swan:_The_Impact_of_the_Highly_Improbable) Book Review: Superforecasting | Slate Star Codex (https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/02/04/book-review-superforecasting/) Pandemic Uncovers the Limitations of Superforecasting – We Are Not Saved (https://wearenotsaved.com/2020/04/18/pandemic-uncovers-the-ridiculousness-of-superforecasting/) My Final Case Against Superforecasting (with criticisms considered, objections noted, and assumptions buttressed) – We Are Not Saved (https://wearenotsaved.com/2020/05/30/my-final-case-against-superforecasting-with-criticisms-considered-objections-noted-and-assumptions-buttressed/) Use your Good Judgement and send us email at incrementspodcast@gmail.com.

We are joined by David Epstein, the author of #1 New York Times bestseller: Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World, for a discussion on: "Wicked" vs "Kind" learning environments, analogical problem solving, differentiating the "Chain of Communication" from the "Chain of Command", and the "bajillion dollar question".   Links to other media discussed in this episode: David Epstein and Malcolm Gladwell discuss Generalized vs Specialized at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 'Superforecasters' Are Making Eerily Accurate Predictions About COVID-19. Our Leaders Could Learn From Their Approach   Book Recommendations: Expert Political Judgment (Philip E. Tetlock), And its more popular treatment: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Dan Gardner and Philip E. Tetlock)   Educating Intuition (Robin M. Hogarth), And its more popular treatment: The Myth of Experience: Why We Learn the Wrong Lessons, and Ways to Correct Them (Emre Soyer and Robin M. Hogarth)   EDO Book Club  If you have not yet joined the Slack workspace, join by finding the invite link in the "Book Club Announcement" on EDO Main. ED LDF

A közelmúltban jelent meg a Napvilág Kiadónál Philip E. Tetlock amerikai pszichológus, politológus Szakértő politikai előrejelzés. Mire jó? Hogyan mérhetjük? című kötete, amelyről Felcsuti Péterrel, a fordítóval és Róna Dániel politológussal beszélgetett Klopfer Judit, a kötet szerkesztője, a Napvilág Kiadó főszerkesztője. A politikai előrejelzés napjainkban reménytelenül szubjektív műfaj. Teret nyert a közéletben egyfajta antiintellektualizmus: a (szak)tudás önmagában értéktelen; csak a velünk azonos nézeteket vallók véleményét vagyunk hajlandóak elfogadni, csak a saját „törzsünkkel” értünk egyet. De miért is kéne a politikai szakértőket felmenteni a pontosság és egyértelműség sztenderdjei alól, amelyeket minden más szakmától és tudományterülettől megkövetelünk? Tetlock a könyvében amellett érvel, hogy az előrejelző versenyek lehetőséget adnak arra, hogy előre mozdítsuk a vitán alapuló demokrácia ügyét – a versenyek révén erősödnek az objektív mérés szempontjai, így javul a közbeszéd minősége és csökken a polarizáció. Tetlock Isaiah Berlin nyomán a szakértőket két csoportra osztja: sündisznókra és rókákra; a gondolkodási stílus egyik végpontja a sündisznó, másik végpontja a róka kognitív stílus, e két kategória segítségével értékeli ki több tízévnyi kutatási anyagát, és dolgozza ki mérési módszerét a lehető legnagyobb objektivitásra törekedve. A beszélgetés az alábbi kérdéseket járja körül: - Miben más a politikai előrejelzés és a politikai szakértelem más tudományterületekhez képest, milyen a befogadói környezetük? - Összefügg-e az antiintellektualizmus mint közeg és a szakértők, illetve a médiafogyasztók mentális merevsége? Miért korrigálja álláspontját nehezen egy szakértő? - Van-e esély rá, hogy javuljon a helyzet nálunk a pontosság és a mentális merevség terén? Tetlock az előrejelző versenyeket jelöli meg eszközként. Vajon sikeres lenne-e egy ilyen verseny itthon? - Ki a jó szakértő? Számít-e, mit gondol, vagy csak az, ahogy gondolkodik? - Melyek a sündisznó és róka kognitív stílus jellegzetességei? Kik a jobb előrejelzők? A médiafigyelem nagy részét sündisznó előrejelzők élvezik – mi az a sündisznókban, ami jobban fogyaszthatóvá teszi az ő véleményüket? - A szakértőkkel kapcsolatos bizalmatlanság nem új jelenség sem az amerikai, sem a magyar politikában. Szóba kerülnek híres hibák, amelyek megrengetik a bizalmat a szakértők tudásában, de pozitív példák is. Kapcsolódó olvasmányok: Higgyünk-e a politikai elemzőnek, és mégis melyiknek?Az Előszó részlete a Mércén: https://merce.hu/2021/02/08/higgyunk-e-a-politikai-elemzonek-es-megis-melyiknek/ Vizsgálni a vizsgálhatatlant: mitől lesz jó egy szakértő?Kritika az Új Egyenlőségen https://ujegyenloseg.hu/vizsgalni-a-vizsgalhatatlant-mitol-lesz-jo-egy-szakerto/ A szerző egy kapcsolódó könyve: Superforecasting. The Art of Science of Prediction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting:_The_Art_and_Science_of_Prediction POLITIKATÖRTÉNETI INTÉZET https://www.polhist.hu/ www.polhist.hu/hirlevel https://www.facebook.com/polhist.hu http://polhist.hu/pti-adomany-koltozes/

Who could've predicted what happened last year? We began 2020 with high hopes and a positive outlook for the Australian property market, after the lows of 2019. Then came COVID-19, which threw everything we thought that was possible right out the window. Panic ensued and the real estate market came to a halt, especially in Melbourne. But as the year progressed and restrictions were lifted, the urge to upgrade and/or buy a first home became imperative, but vendors were concerned about selling in an unpredictable market. This led to a severe lack of supply. Now, with Q1 of 2021 behind us, the property market is thriving with historic clearance rates and FOMO rampant across the nation.  In this annual episode, we cover the experts and property pundits who were brave or foolish enough to forecast the year that was. Who got it right and who got it wrong? Which voices potentially impacted the market, and what role did the media play amplifying their opinions and even causing panic? We hope to answer the question: where can you get good advice during a volatile situation? THE REPORT:https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au/fool-or-forecaster THE EXPERT'S EPISODES:Roger Montgomery - Founder of Montgomery Investment Management June 24, 2019: Episode 73 | Why are so many equity investors bearish about property? Eliza Owen - Head of Residential Research at Corelogic Aug 19, 2019: Episode 81 | Will a crisis in confidence kill our apartment market? March 31, 2020: Episode 115 | The impact of new restrictions & increasing unemployment Aug 3, 2020: Episode 135 | Corelogic report: Pain and Gain, March quarter 2020 Jan 18 2021: Episode 159 | Why hasn't the property market crashed? Louis Christopher - Founder of SQM Research Jan 13, 2020: Episode 102 | Research data - 2020 Boom or Bust? Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital Apr 7, 2020: Episode 117 | The next Great Depression? The next Roaring 20s? Pete Wargent - International Buyers Agent & CEO of Next Level Wealth April 13, 2020: Episode 118 | Current global property market: What you should know. Martin North - Founder of Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) May 11, 2020: Episode 123 | To buy, or not to buy: that is the question Sept 28, 2020: Episode 143 | Postcode Analysis: What properties are outperforming the market Stuart Wemyss - Financial Advisor & Author of Rules of the Lending Game & Investopoly June 1, 2020: Episode 126 | Lending rules & predicting the property market February 8, 2021: Episode 162 | Houses vs Apartments Nicola Powell - Senior Research Analyst at Domain Sept 7, 2020: Episode 140 | Behavioural science of property buying Saul Eslake - Former Chief Economist of ANZ and Bank of America Merrill Lynch Nov 30, 2020: Episode 152 | What does top economist say on the current economic environment Warren Hogan - Former Chief Economist of ANZ July 8, 2019: Episode 75 | Is Australia heading into a recession? Jan 11, 2021: Episode 158 | Top economist puts Australia in the world picture. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Paperback https://www.amazon.com.au/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock/dp/0804136718 HOST LINKS:Looking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? www.gooddeeds.com.au Work with Veronica: https://linktr.ee/veronicamorgan Looking for a Mortgage Broker? www.wealthful.com.auWork with Chris: hello@wealthful.com.au Send in your questions to: questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au EPISODE TRANSCRIPT: Please note that this has been transcribed by half-human-half-robot, so brace yourself for typos and the odd bit of weirdness…This episode was recorded in March, 2020. https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au/podcasts/158

For more on Michael visit: https://michaelwstory.com/ Follow Michael on Twitter @MWStory Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (2015) Tom Chivers, The AI Does Not Hate You: Superintelligence, Rationality and the Race to Save the World (2019) Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don't (2012) James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few (2005) Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974) Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/ Timestamps 03:43 The process of superforecasting with the example of predicting how long it would take to develop a coronavirus vaccine 12:50 The wisdom of crowds 18:04 The inside vs. outside view, anchors and base rates 23:15 The foxes versus the hedgehogs 29:39 The conjunction fallacy 37:15 Accountability, falsifiability, Brier scores 46:54 Loss of institutional credibility: a problem or an opportunity? 01:02:05 The importance of A/B testing 01:06:36 Back of the envelope (Fermi) calculations 01:12:11 Psychological characteristics of superforecasters, caring about being wrong

You can find Visa’s book here: https://gumroad.com/l/friendlynerdbook Subscribe to Visa’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/user/visa Follow Visa on Twitter @visakanv Further References The wisdom of crowds concept is well described in Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner’s Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (2015) See @naval’s Twitter account, whose approach I compare with Visakan’s Sonke Ahrens, How to Take Smart Notes (2017) The Karate Kid (1984); Cobra Kai (2018—) Timestamps 03:18 Growing up online: how to use social media constructively to make friends and be a good member of the online community; the value of public comment spaces; the importance of scenes. 31:18 Why we no longer fear strangers in the internet age; the wisdom of crowds; public and private spaces and liminal spaces and the opportunities they bring. 47:22 Parasocial relationships; why Visakan’s approach brings him fans. 51:08 Social dark matter 57:18 What it means to be ambitious, the opportunities and dangers of idealism, the importance of public accountability 01:10:41 Getting addicted to interim stages 01:16:57 Note taking, tips for the writing process 01:33:15 Using statistical understanding to improve your marriage 01:38:52 What does mean to be a nerd? The value of pure curiosity.

Most people are terrible at predicting the future. But a small subset of people are significantly less terrible: the Superforecasters. On this episode of Rationally Speaking, Julia talks with professor Phil Tetlock, whose team of volunteer forecasters has racked up landslide wins in forecasting tournaments sponsored by the US government. He and Julia explore what his teams were doing right and what we can learn from them, the problem of meta-uncertainty, and how much we should expect prediction skill in one domain (like politics or economics) to carry over to other domains in real life. Sped up the speakers by ['1.07', '1.0']

Certain clusters of nerds on the internet can find it very frustrating when successful people say a lot of incorrect stuff ("Just focus on your passion and be yourself!") about how they found success in their field. To be clear, I am such a nerd. Cedric Chin has researched and written extensively about the academic literature on skill acquisition and expertise—and has made these concepts extremely practical for knowledge workers looking to improve their career skills at his Commonplace blog. Through Cedric's writing, we can build a better model of how experts build their models, which should help us develop our own skills, especially in areas of complexity and uncertainty like management, building a business, or growing an audience. If you are interested in developing practical expertise, check this episode out and follow Cedric's work for more great info. Learn more from Cedric here: Website: www.commoncog.com | Commonplace Blog Twitter: @ejames_c Selected Articles & Series: The Tacit Knowledge Series The Chinese Businessman Paradox A Framework for Putting Mental Models to Practice If you're enjoying the show, the best way to support it is by sharing with your friends. If you don't have any friends, why not a leave a review? It makes a difference in terms of other people finding the show. You can also subscribe to receive my e-mail newsletter at www.toddnief.com. Most of my writing never makes it to the blog, so get on that list. Show Notes: [01:55] A disagreement on tacit knowledge vs deliberate practice—and establishing some definitions [14:00] Why “purposeful practice” is useful to almost everyone—and why “deliberate practice” has a much more narrow application [22:10] The necessary conditions for expertise—and why most of the skills that people want in their lives aren’t easy to research [25:50] “Tacit knowledge” is knowledge that can’t easily be put into words. Experts aren’t very good at explaining what they’re doing, but naturalistic decision-making researchers are able to extract what’s actually going on. [32:27] How athletes make quick decisions—with examples from judo, racquet sports, and Cristiano Ronaldo [40:48] Experts are able to prioritize the most important things in complex environments and are able to easily recognize different “prototypes”—plus a practical management example [49:51] How should someone create an environment that helps people learn and recognize prototypes? [56:25] Having an accurate model of the world doesn’t necessarily mean that you’re going to be more successful [01:06:10] Sometimes having an inaccurate model of the world is beneficial and makes people more successful in marketing and in sport [01:19:50] How to develop the skill of trial and error [01:25:00] How to learn more from Cedric Links and Resources Mentioned “The Making of an Expert” by K. Anders Ericcson “Deliberate Practice and Proposed Limits on the Effects of Practice on the Acquisition of Expert Performance: Why the Original Definition Matters and Recommendations for Future Research” by K. Anders Ericcson and Kyle W. Harwell “Peak: Secrets from the New Science of Expertise” by K. Anders Ericcson Manager Tools Todd Nief’s Show: Sarah Sentes (Manager Tools) on managing in industries that resist management Naturalistic decision-making “The Two Settings of Kind and Wicked Learning Environments” by Robin Hogarth and Tomás Lejarraga “Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized world” by David Epstein “Superior self-paced memorization of digits in spite of a normal digit span: The structure of a memorist’s skill.” by Yi Hu and K. Anders Ericcson The Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and Expert Performance “The relationship between expertise and visual search strategy in a racquet sport” by Bruce Abernethy and David G. Russell “Conditions for Intuitive Expertise: A Failure to Disagree” by Gary Klein and Daniel Kahneman Recognition primed decision “Developing cognitive task analysis and the importance of socio-cognitive competence/insight for professional practice” by Julie Gore and Adrian P. Banks “Friendly casualty outcomes: choice of counter Improvised Explosive Device tactics matters on the asymmetric battlefield” by Larry D Baca and Michael D Proctor Cristiano Ronaldo scores in complete darkness Jimmy Pedro “Sources of Power” by Gary Klein “The Power of Intuition: How to Use Your Gut Feelings to Make Better Decisions at Work” by Gary Klein “A New Model of Scheduling in Manufacturing: Tasks, Roles, and Monitoring” by Sarah Jackson and John R. Wilson Explicit and tacit rationality Expected utility hypothesis Bayesian inference Lean startup “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction” by Philip Tetlock “Never Split the Difference: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It” by Chris Voss “Thinking, Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman “Psychobiology of Fatigue During Endurance Exercise” by Samuele Marcora Predictive coding “Deep Work: Rules for Focused Success in a Distracted World” by Cal Newport

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/pbliving/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/pbliving/support

Podcast: Conversations with Tyler Episode: Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a FoxRelease date: 2020-04-22Accuracy is only one of the things we want from forecasters, says Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. People also look to forecasters for ideological assurance, entertainment, and to minimize regret–such as that caused by not taking a global pandemic seriously enough. The best forecasters aren't just intelligent, but fox-like integrative thinkers capable of navigating values that are conflicting or in tension. He joined Tyler to discuss whether the world as a whole is becoming harder to predict, whether Goldman Sachs traders can beat forecasters, what inferences we can draw from analyzing the speech of politicians, the importance of interdisciplinary teams, the qualities he looks for in leaders, the reasons he's skeptical machine learning will outcompete his research team, the year he thinks the ascent of the West became inevitable, how research on counterfactuals can be applied to modern debates, why people with second cultures tend to make better forecasters, how to become more fox-like, and more. Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links, or watch the full video. Recorded March 26th, 2020 Other ways to connect Follow us on Twitter and Instagram Follow Tyler on Twitter  Follow Philip on Twitter Email us: cowenconvos@mercatus.gmu.edu Subscribe at our newsletter page to have the latest Conversations with Tyler news sent straight to your inbox. 

Podcast: Conversations with Tyler (LS 63 · TOP 0.05% )Episode: Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a FoxRelease date: 2020-04-22Accuracy is only one of the things we want from forecasters, says Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. People also look to forecasters for ideological assurance, entertainment, and to minimize regret–such as that caused by not taking a global pandemic seriously enough. The best forecasters aren't just intelligent, but fox-like integrative thinkers capable of navigating values that are conflicting or in tension. He joined Tyler to discuss whether the world as a whole is becoming harder to predict, whether Goldman Sachs traders can beat forecasters, what inferences we can draw from analyzing the speech of politicians, the importance of interdisciplinary teams, the qualities he looks for in leaders, the reasons he's skeptical machine learning will outcompete his research team, the year he thinks the ascent of the West became inevitable, how research on counterfactuals can be applied to modern debates, why people with second cultures tend to make better forecasters, how to become more fox-like, and more. Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links, or watch the full video. Recorded March 26th, 2020 Other ways to connect Follow us on Twitter and Instagram Follow Tyler on Twitter  Follow Philip on Twitter Email us: cowenconvos@mercatus.gmu.edu Subscribe at our newsletter page to have the latest Conversations with Tyler news sent straight to your inbox. 

Accuracy is only one of the things we want from forecasters, says Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. People also look to forecasters for ideological assurance, entertainment, and to minimize regret–such as that caused by not taking a global pandemic seriously enough. The best forecasters aren’t just intelligent, but fox-like integrative thinkers capable of navigating values that are conflicting or in tension. He joined Tyler to discuss whether the world as a whole is becoming harder to predict, whether Goldman Sachs traders can beat forecasters, what inferences we can draw from analyzing the speech of politicians, the importance of interdisciplinary teams, the qualities he looks for in leaders, the reasons he’s skeptical machine learning will outcompete his research team, the year he thinks the ascent of the West became inevitable, how research on counterfactuals can be applied to modern debates, why people with second cultures tend to make better forecasters, how to become more fox-like, and more. Follow us on Twitter and IG: @cowenconvos Email: cowenconvos@mercatus.gmu.edu Follow Philip on Twitter Follow Tyler on Twitter Facebook Newsletter

Annie Duke is a renown public speaker and decision strategist. For two decades, she was one of the top poker players in the world, including winning a World Series of Poker bracelet and the $2 million winner-take-all WSOP Tournament of Champions. Her study of the science of smart decision-making began with a National Science Foundation Fellowship, which she used study Cognitive Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania.  Among her charity work and television appearances, Annie was a runner-up to Joan Rivers on Celebrity Apprentice, during which she raised $700,000 for Refugees International. She is a natural teacher and storyteller with an active mind that constantly searches for accurate truth. I highly recommend Annie’s new book, Thinking in Bets, which comes out this week. In her life after poker, she is a featured speaker, writes a newsletter and a blog, and advises companies on improving their decision-making process. Have a look at her website, annieduke.com, for more information. Our conversation discusses Annie’s path from an Ivy League education to professional poker, the nature of a bet, how we form beliefs, why we make bad decisions, and what we can do to improve our decision-making process. Towards the end, we also talk about bankroll management, poker faces, and advice she would give the President on how to make better decisions.   For more episodes go to CapitalAllocatorsPodcast.com/Podcast Write a review on iTunes Follow Ted on twitter at @tseides Join Ted’s mailing list at CapitalAllocatorsPodcast.com   Show Notes 2:30 – Annie’s path through the poker world  6:05 – Her transition into teaching and the lesson of tilt  11:57 – How do you apply the concepts of betting and gambling broadly to decision making  13:35 – What is it about the science of the brain that prevents us from making good decisions             14:17 – Stumbling on Happiness             14:19 – Dan Gilbert Ted Talk             15:44 – Kluge: The Haphazard Evolution of the Human Mind  18:50 – Motivated reasoning  21:10 – Is there anything we can do to fix our decision-making biases (wanna bet)  28:05 – Other devices to improve our decision-making  32:29 – Value of a decision group             33:16 – Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction 34:00 – Mertonian Norms, CUDOS  40:27 – Mental time travel (Marty McFly from Back to the Future)             42:55 – Jerry Seinfeld – Night Guy vs Morning Guy  44:55 – Applying these tools and the parallels between poker and investing  48:59 – Reading poker faces             49:21 – Joe Navarro books             49:34 – Joe Navarro Psychology Today  52:50 – What advice would Annie give President Trump in terms of improving his decision-making process  53:52 – Favorite sports moment  55:45 – What teaching from Annie’s parents has most stayed with her  56:08 – What information does Annie read that a lot of people might not know about that is valuable             56:18 – The Greatest Show on Earth: The Evidence for Evolution             56:19 – Why Evolution Is True 56:58 – What life lesson does Annie wish she knew earlier in life 58:28 – Looking ahead, what advice would Annie give herself today from a ripe old age Learn More Read the Transcript Subscribe to the Capital Allocators Blog or Monthly Mailing List Don't Subscribe, but Let Us Know Who You Are Write a review on iTunes Follow Ted on twitter at @tseides Review past episodes of the Podcast

Welcome to episode 10 of the Influence Unlocked podcast – the first episode to be produced under social distancing restrictions! Our guest is a former child model who enjoys go karting and bouldering, but most of you would know Tim Fung as the CEO and cofounder of Airtasker, an online gig economy platform that helps users outsource their chores, errands and odd jobs. And Airtasker itself has raised plenty of cash in its eight years of operation, raising $90 million in capital and attracting investors like Seven West Media, Black Sheep Capital, and Vocus Communications founder and Airtasker chairman James Spenceley. (It’s also a blessing for those of us who can’t stand the sight of the dreaded Ikea allen key!) A former corporate advisor and investment banker, Tim also spent some time in the talent management space before turning to entrepreneurship and joining the Young Rich List. He has been the founder or co-founder of several companies over the years including Sydney coworking space Tank Stream Labs. Listen in to find out why Tim thinks some of the best opportunities are unpaid, and what he’s learned about leadership during the coronavirus crisis. Tim’s top reads: Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman; Radical Candor: Be a Kickass Boss Without Losing Your Humanity by Kim Malone Scott; Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke; and Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner. You can follow Tim on Goodreads for more reading inspo! Tim’s Five in Five shout-out: Mike Rosenbaum of Spacer. Leave feedback or get in touch here: Samantha Dybac Managing Director and founder The PR Hub www.theprhub.com.au/podcast https://www.instagram.com/influenceunlockedpodcast/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/samanthadybac/ Producer: Andrew Menczel http://www.piccolopodcasts.com.au/

Tim Francis is the Founder of Great Assistant, which helps Entrepreneurs get an effective and affordable Assistant who takes over the minutiae you hate doing so you can get back to the work you love. Tim and his team have now placed over 200 Assistants. Tim's own Assistant, Sarah, has been with him for 5 years, handles 98% of his email inbox, and has allowed him to focus on bigger opportunities such as appearing on Inc.com, Forbes.com, and appearing as a guest lecturer at NYU in New York City. What you'll learn about in this episode: How getting started in real estate in 2006 and then losing $20,000 to a Ponzi scheme con artist in his 20s opened Tim's eyes to his own potential How finding his incredible assistant, Sarah, transformed Tim's business and allowed him to pursue new deals and opportunities Why Tim looks for fit, timing and profitability when evaluating potential clients of his services Why not all virtual assistants are created equal, and why a truly Great Assistant has the skills, experience, time and dedication that can transform your business Why hiring a Great Assistant can cost as little as $1,000 a month, and how Great Assistant manages to attract top talent inexpensively How the Great Assistant Inner Circle service provides ongoing professional development for Great Assistants How Tim learned to turn email control over to his Great Assistant, and how that allows him to be a Transaction Engineer Why distraction is the biggest productivity-killer, and why the more things you have to focus on the less attention you can give to each thing Why Tim recommends you read Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner Why being on either side of a great mentoring relationship can be powerful and transformative, and why the wrong mentor can do incredible damage to your business Resources: Website: www.SmartRealEstateCoach.com/greatassistant Profit Factory Website: https://www.profitfactory.com/ LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/timothyjfrancis/ Additional resources: Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner: https://amzn.to/2J3CNtT

All my life I’ve been forecasting financial markets – first at big banks like JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, and now at my own research firm – Macro Hive. Throughout, I’ve always felt like it’s a fool's errand. Can I seriously predict the future? In the end, I make peace with myself that my objective is not always to be right, but to be right more often than being wrong. But more importantly, the fear of being wrong is always driving me to research how to become a better forecaster. As it happens some of the best work in this area has been done by the American Political scientist Philip Tetlock. He summarised his work in the excellent book called “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction“. In the book, he lists ten commandments to forecasting well, which include Focus on questions where your hard work will pay off. Break big problems into smaller ones.  Strike the right balance between inside and outside views.  Strike the right balance between under- and overreacting to evidence.  Acknowledge the counter-arguments.  I run through these and the rest in this podcast. I hope you find this helpful. You can subscribe to my podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, Overcast, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Just search for “Deep See With Bilal”. Also, make sure to rate and review this podcast and enjoy!  Bilal  

Join Michelle today as she reveals the process she developed over the years of turning her what-ifs into real things. Book mentioned: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock: http://michellespiva.com/Amz-PhilipETetlock-Superforecasting Don't forget to use our Amazon link to support the podcast by using our Amazon Shopping link! http://MichelleSpiva.com/Amz For Interviews, sponsorship, or coaching/consulting, please send inquires to: MichelleSpiva at gmail dot com (no solicitation-spam; *You do not have permission to add this email to any email list or autoresponder without knowledge or consent) _____________________________ Further support this podcast, please do so by using any of these methods: All your Amazon shopping: http://michellespiva.com/Amz Venmo: @MichelleSpiva1  CashApp: $MichelleSpiva PayPal: http://bit.ly/Donate2Michelle Patreon: https://Patreon.com/MichelleSpiva Don't forget to like, comment, subscribe, rate, and review. Follow Michelle here: Facebook: facebook.com/FollowMichelleSpiva Twitter: @mspiva  IG: @MichelleSpiva  --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/michelle-spiva/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/michelle-spiva/support

Have you ever been infuriated by a doctor's unwillingness to give you an honest, probabilistic estimate about what to expect? Or a lawyer who won't tell you the chances you'll win your case? Their behaviour is so frustrating because accurately predicting the future is central to every action we take. If we can't assess the likelihood of different outcomes we're in a complete bind, whether the decision concerns war and peace, work and study, or Black Mirror and RuPaul's Drag Race. Which is why the research of Professor Philip Tetlock is relevant for all of us each and every day. He has spent 40 years as a meticulous social scientist, collecting millions of predictions from tens of thousands of people, in order to figure out how good humans really are at foreseeing the future, and what habits of thought allow us to do better. Along with other psychologists, he identified that many ordinary people are attracted to a 'folk probability' that draws just three distinctions — 'impossible', 'possible' and 'certain' — and which leads to major systemic mistakes. But with the right mindset and training we can become capable of accurately discriminating between differences as fine as 56% as against 57% likely. • Links to learn more, summary and full transcript • The calibration training app • Sign up for the Civ-5 counterfactual forecasting tournament • A review of the evidence on good forecasting practices • Learn more about Effective Altruism Global In the aftermath of Iraq and WMDs the US intelligence community hired him to prevent the same ever happening again, and his guide — Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction — became a bestseller back in 2014. That was five years ago. In today's interview, Tetlock explains how his research agenda continues to advance, today using the game Civilization 5 to see how well we can predict what would have happened in elusive counterfactual worlds we never get to see, and discovering how simple algorithms can complement or substitute for human judgement. We discuss how his work can be applied to your personal life to answer high-stakes questions, like how likely you are to thrive in a given career path, or whether your business idea will be a billion-dollar unicorn — or fall apart catastrophically. (To help you get better at figuring those things out, our site now has a training app developed by the Open Philanthropy Project and Clearer Thinking that teaches you to distinguish your '70 percents' from your '80 percents'.) We also bring some tough methodological questions raised by the author of a recent review of the forecasting literature. And we find out what jobs people can take to make improving the reasonableness of decision-making in major institutions that shape the world their profession, as it has been for Tetlock over many decades. We view Tetlock's work as so core to living well that we've brought him back for a second and longer appearance on the show — his first was back in episode 15. Get this episode by subscribing to our podcast on the world’s most pressing problems and how to solve them: type 80,000 Hours into your podcasting app. The 80,000 Hours Podcast is produced by Keiran Harris.

It has been a while since we discussed private equity on the show, so I was excited for this week’s conversation. My guest is Dan Rasmussen, the founder of Verdad advisers. Dan worked in private equity and has spent years studying the entire field. Dan identified several key drivers of private equity’s outsized returns: size, value, and leverage. His firm uses these factors as a starting point to build a portfolio of public equities that behave like their private brethren. We cover a ton of ground, discussing the prospective returns for equities, forecasting, and tons of investing strategies. Please enjoy this conversation with Dan Rasmussen.   For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag   Links Referenced Subscribe to Dan The Gospel According to Michael Porter Tobias Carlisle Steven Pinker E.O. Wilson   Books Referenced What Works on Wall Street, Fourth Edition: The Classic Guide to the Best-Performing Investment Strategies of All Time Quantitative Value, + Web Site: A Practitioner's Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction   Show Notes 2:03 – (First Question) – The current state of private equity investing        4:09 – The three myths of private equity  6:51 – Taking a deeper dive into the myth of growth through operational improvements             9:29 – What Works on Wall Street, Fourth Edition: The Classic Guide to the Best-Performing Investment Strategies of All Time  11:25 – Valuations for private market investment and where they’re going  14:03 – Private equity companies that have a higher chance of delivering results that exceed expectation  16:39 – Other observations on the private equity space that would be interesting to investors considering the asset class  19:33 – Importance of being very purposeful in picking your reference classes             19:42 – Subscribe to Dan  22:03 – How do the lessons Dan has learned in private equity translate to his investment strategies  25:21 – How do you apply purely technical, systematic thinking into public market investing  29:23 – Analyzing leveraged stocks and the value they could create  30:06 – How Dan thinks about the direction of debt vs just the level  33:11 – Predicting a firms ability to deleverage  35:20 – How Dan’s company whittle down a company and are able to see value beyond their quantitative screens  41:29 – How does Dan think about the global vs US opportunity set  44:22 – What originally drew Dan to the Japan market  47:03 – How do rising rates impact Dan’s strategy in investing in highly leveraged companies 51:19 – Importance of having investor money locked up for a longer period of time both for the fund and investor 55:03 – Porter’s five forces             55:25 - The Gospel According to Michael Porter 1:00:51 – How Dan thinks about competitive advantage 1:04:41 – Exploring Dan’s personal process in pursuit of his ideal strategy             1:05:19 – Quantitative Value, + Web Site: A Practitioner's Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors             1:05:20 – Tobias Carlisle             1:06:27 – Steven Pinker             1:06:28 – E.O. Wilson 1:07:11 – What other markets pique Dan’s interest 1:09:39 – Why there is such a focus on small for Dan 1:11:11 – Source or person that Dan has learned the most from that might surprise people             1:11:24 – Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?             1:11:28– Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction 1:12:54– What was it like writing the book 1:17:19 – If Dan was going to write another book today, what would it be about 1:19:08– Kindest thing anyone has done for Dan   Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.  Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag

Annie Duke is a renown public speaker and decision strategist. For two decades, she was one of the top poker players in the world, including winning a World Series of Poker bracelet and the $2 million winner-take-all WSOP Tournament of Champions. Her study of the science of smart decision-making began with a National Science Foundation Fellowship, which she used study Cognitive Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania.  Among her charity work and television appearances, Annie was a runner-up to Joan Rivers on Celebrity Apprentice, during which she raised $700,000 for Refugees International. She is a natural teacher and storyteller with an active mind that constantly searches for accurate truth. I highly recommend Annie’s new book, Thinking in Bets, which comes out this week. In her life after poker, she is a featured speaker, writes a newsletter and a blog, and advises companies on improving their decision-making process. Have a look at her website, annieduke.com, for more information. Our conversation discusses Annie’s path from an Ivy League education to professional poker, the nature of a bet, how we form beliefs, why we make bad decisions, and what we can do to improve our decision-making process. Towards the end, we also talk about bankroll management, poker faces, and advice she would give the President on how to make better decisions.   For more episodes go to CapitalAllocatorsPodcast.com/Podcast Write a review on iTunes Follow Ted on twitter at @tseides Join Ted’s mailing list at CapitalAllocatorsPodcast.com   Show Notes 2:30 – Annie’s path through the poker world  6:05 – Her transition into teaching and the lesson of tilt  11:57 – How do you apply the concepts of betting and gambling broadly to decision making  13:35 – What is it about the science of the brain that prevents us from making good decisions             14:17 – Stumbling on Happiness             14:19 – Dan Gilbert Ted Talk             15:44 – Kluge: The Haphazard Evolution of the Human Mind  18:50 – Motivated reasoning  21:10 – Is there anything we can do to fix our decision-making biases (wanna bet)  28:05 – Other devices to improve our decision-making  32:29 – Value of a decision group             33:16 – Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction 34:00 – Mertonian Norms, CUDOS  40:27 – Mental time travel (Marty McFly from Back to the Future)             42:55 – Jerry Seinfeld – Night Guy vs Morning Guy  44:55 – Applying these tools and the parallels between poker and investing  48:59 – Reading poker faces             49:21 – Joe Navarro books             49:34 – Joe Navarro Psychology Today  52:50 – What advice would Annie give President Trump in terms of improving his decision-making process  53:52 – Favorite sports moment  55:45 – What teaching from Annie’s parents has most stayed with her  56:08 – What information does Annie read that a lot of people might not know about that is valuable             56:18 – The Greatest Show on Earth: The Evidence for Evolution             56:19 – Why Evolution Is True 56:58 – What life lesson does Annie wish she knew earlier in life 58:28 – Looking ahead, what advice would Annie give herself today from a ripe old age

Alex Denne is one of the most curious people I have ever met. He has an uncanny ability to break things down and gamify self-improvement as well as pretty much anything else. I worked with him co-running Basecamp, a business accelerator for students at Bristol University where we learnt a lot about start-ups and young entrepreneurs. On the show, we cover a lot about start-ups... Also, lots of business ideas and strategies for self-improvement and fun times travelling. He has a great view of the world that I think you’ll enjoy. TOP TIPS 1. Gamify Self-improvement I love the way he breaks things down and works out how to improve them, t’s good to always step back and be mindful and curious about what you’re doing and what you want to achieve. Wherever possible try and make the process more fun by gamifying elements of it or setting targets, rewards or budgets that you can monitor and acknowledge achievements. Note — Learn to Type Fast! 2. Cycle Touring is Awesome I need to do more cycle touring with my life, everyone should try it. It’s such a great way to see the world. It can be done really cheaply and is a fun healthy way of exploring with a good amount of challenge. 3. Work with people who complement you Just because you and a potential partner are both interested in an idea and get along, doesn’t mean you are the best business partners. You need to find someone that seeks out and solves the problem that you can’t, otherwise you are just double working and can actually cause conflict. People that do the same job as you should just be the employee’s that you hire whilst you find new problems that you can solve. People that solve things you can’t comprehend are your partners. BOOKS Peak By Anders Ericsson and Robert Pool (https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0099598477/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=samharris48-21&camp=1634&creative=6738&linkCode=as2&creativeASIN=0099598477&linkId=1c98598c611f126099f511453d9fc429) This book really embodies the growth mindset and explains how you can improve and master and any skill. You don’t necessarily need innate talent to be brilliant. Have you ever wanted to learn a language or pick up an instrument, only to become too daunted by the task at hand? Expert performance guru Anders Ericsson has made a career studying chess champions, violin virtuosos, star athletes, and memory mavens. Peak condenses three decades of original research to introduce an incredibly powerful approach to learning that is fundamentally different from the way people traditionally think about acquiring a skill. Tim Ferris 4 Hour Work Week (https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0091929113/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=samharris48-21&camp=1634&creative=6738&linkCode=as2&creativeASIN=0091929113&linkId=aedd06f7c832dcf330de702072716460) Great book on how to live your life and be more successful. One of the best books you can ever read to think more strategically about your life and how you want it to work and giving you the tools to get there. His other books are also worth reading but take the 4-hour body and 4-hour chef with a grain of salt and he makes some overwhelming statements that aren’t exactly accurate. Sapiens: A brief History of Humankind (https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0099590085/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=samharris48-21&camp=1634&creative=6738&linkCode=as2&creativeASIN=0099590085&linkId=f07a43f7c6c2863b03561dcc100a6fd5) In Sapiens, Dr Yuval Noah Harari spans the whole of human history, from the very first humans to walk the earth to the radical — and sometimes devastating — breakthroughs of the Cognitive, Agricultural and Scientific Revolutions. Drawing on insights from biology, anthropology, paleontology and economics, he explores how the currents of history have shaped our human societies, the animals and plants around us, and even our personalities. Have we become happier as history has unfolded? Can we ever free our behaviour from the heritage of our ancestors? And what, if anything, can we do to influence the course of the centuries to come? Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/1847947158/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=samharris48-21&camp=1634&creative=6738&linkCode=as2&creativeASIN=1847947158&linkId=b4e952584258a522fea81eb9c696e33b) Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future — whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life — and is destined to become a modern classic. SuperIntelligence: Paths, Dangers and Strategies — Nick Bostrum (https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0198739834/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=samharris48-21&camp=1634&creative=6738&linkCode=as2&creativeASIN=0198739834&linkId=c78e5a956a0a5718eb0e47818d7bcd14) What happens when machines surpass humans in general intelligence? Will artificial agents save or destroy us? Nick Bostrom lays the foundation for understanding the future of humanity and intelligent life. If machine brains surpassed human brains in general intelligence, then this new superintelligence could become extremely powerful — possibly beyond our control. As the fate of the gorillas now depends more on humans than on the species itself, so would the fate of humankind depend on the actions of the machine superintelligence. But we have one advantage: we get to make the first move. Growth Mindset Summary (https://namastenourished.com/growth-mindset/) Learn more about the Growth Mindset and how to encourage one with this really informative blog. CONTACT Both very happy to discuss any of the idea’s mentioned in the show or anything else =] Alex: Twitter (https://twitter.com/alexjdenne) Instagram (https://www.instagram.com/alexjdenne/) me@alexdenne.com Sam: Instagram (https://www.instagram.com/samjamsnaps/) Quora (https://www.quora.com/profile/Sam-Harris-58) Twitter (https://twitter.com/samharristweets) LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/in/sharris48/) Show notes (https://medium.com/growth-mindset-podcast/12-mastering-anything-519718369ec) Subscribe! If you enjoyed the podcast please subscribe and rate it. And of course, share with your friends! Special Guest: Alex Denne.

Today’s mega combo episode is Chris Voss, Robert Cialdini, Philip Tetlock, Spyros Makridakis, and Tim Ferriss. Chris Voss is the author of, Never Split The Difference: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It. Chris is a former international hostage negotiator for the FBI. He has had an amazing career full of great experience and insights. Chris first entered the FBI in 1983 and has been involved with over 150 kidnapping cases. Robert Cialdini is best known for writing Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion published back in 1984. Robert is the “go to man” for understanding effective persuasion. Reciprocity, commitment and consistency, social proof, authority, liking and scarcity are six key principles of influence he teaches. His new book, Pre-Suasion: A Revolutionary Way to Influence and Persuade, introduces a seventh key principle of influence. Philip Tetlock is a Canadian American political science writer currently at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is right at the intersection of psychology, political science and organizational behavior. His book, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, is probabilistic thinking defined. Phil is also a co-principle investigator of The Good Judgment Project, a study on the art and science of prediction and forecasting. Spyros Makridakis is Rector of the Neapolis University of Pafos NUP and an Emeritus Professor of Decision Sciences at INSEAD as well as the University of Piraeus and one of the world’s leading experts on forecasting, with many journal articles and books on the subject. He is organizer of the Makridakis Competitions, known in the forecasting literature as the M-Competitions. Tim Ferriss is an author, blogger and motivational speaker known for his bestselling books. Tim has revolutionized the idea of writing a book; he has engineered the process of a bestseller. In this episode of Trend Following Radio: Aversion to negotiation Negotiating skills Never pretend people are rational Business negotiations compared to hostage negotiations Lying three times “How” and “Why” questions What are superforecasters? Probabilistic thinking Looking at data Location independence 80/20 rule Known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns Uncertainty How to publish a book

Dan Gardner, co-author of best-selling "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction," argues that pundits are notoriously inaccurate at predicting the future, and that ordinary people actually produce better forecasts. In this episode of AFP Conversations, Gardner explains how FP&A and finance professionals can turn themselves into superforecasters. He will also keynote the inaugural FinNext.  

In this episode, Preston and Stig read a book that was recommended to them by legendary investor Edward Thorp. The book is titled, "Superforecasting" by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner.Click here to get full access to our show notes.In this episode, you'll learn:The right framework for making correct forecastsHow to prevent confirmation bias for your investmentsWhy financial experts are storytellers rather than forecastersHow and why the best investors constantly change their opinion

I met Nari Savanorke-Joyce while living with 20 other people in a double-wide row home in Boston's most elite neighborhood. She had just graduated from Wellesley College (Hilary Clinton's Alma Mater) and was getting started in entry-level corporate America.  Within a year she had become one of her company's most valuable data scientists.  Nari and I used to go sailing on the Charles River. We'd talk about economics, education, and the future of technology. Those conversations were fascinating to be a part of, so I thought: "Why not bring the genius of Nari on the show?" As a professional, Nari takes cutting edge predictive models from the dusty shelves of academia and puts them to work on important business cases. She's a technical expert in data science but more than that, she's a chameleon who deftly maneuvers the social and political conditions of whatever situation she's in. Our conversation in episode 4 of Hacker Practice takes place on Skype, with Nari calling in from a poppin' lounge in Stockholm. If you're unfamiliar with data science or are looking for career advice for ambitious millennials, you will certainly enjoy this conversation with Nari Savanorke-Joyce. [1.10] Why Nari booked a trip to Stockholm, Sweden on a whim? [5.50] How Nari learnt about entrepreneurship through her parents The importance of failure in the journey and grit required to bounce back [6.30] Why Nari uses meditation to stay focused  Application to business environment [9.30] Adapting to the corporate world despite having entrepreneurshipin your blood How to adapt to different environments Parental influence in this domain [13.50] Why putting yourself in a position where you aren’t in control is important for self-development [16.10] Discussion on data science Good data scientists excel in three directions: Domain expertise Computer science / programming skills Statistical modelling skills DATA SCIENCE = Taking massive quantities of data and turning it into actionable insights [18.30] Discussion on the methodology of data science (How to Data Science 101) Find a problem to solve Find the data Clean the data  Apply a model [22.10] How an insurance company uses data science to stop insurance fraud? Use models to predict low frequency high severity impact events [30.30] Incentive structures in a data science role [33.50] Using logistic regression to ask binary questions i.e. is person x likely to commit fraud? Using survivor modelling to understand claim lifespan [37.30] Why data cleansing is the most time consuming component of data science? Using AI to detect pattern anomalies [42.20] Discussion on behavioural economics (psychology and economics) and how to derive value in data science [45.00] Behavioral economics is not classical economics Can behavioral economics be used to improve lives and business? [45.30] Specific advice for ambitious young people Get out of debt Find community with older people [47.00] Importance in investing in continuous education Focus on learning as a motivator [51.50] Diversification vs focus lesson from Nari’s parents - “You have to go all in if you really want to pursue something”   [55.00] On insurance start-ups attracting corporate talent Begin with the “why” and be more than profit seeking [58.10] Personal finance and budgeting Awareness via categorisation of spending Automatically save a percentage of your income [1.03.20] Future of data science Using data to continuously dive deeper and personalise – huge potential in the health sector [1.05.00] Nari provides podcast interview tactics that she’d like to see adopted by Hacker Practice podcast [1.06.00] Nari’s Top tier interviewees: Thich Nhat Hanh – Meditation as we walk through life Michelle Obama [1.10.10] Nari’s book recommendations Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand The Fountainhead by Ayn Rand Colorless Tsukuru Tazaki and His Years of Pilgrimage by Haruki Murakami [1.15.10] Travel hacks to save money Grocery stores are a great way to save money instead of eating out but also to learn about local food and culture Walk everywhere, especially if the city or place you are visiting is compact [1.16.20] Final piece of advice to listeners Try 10 minutes of meditation per day

Michael has put together a compilation of past appearances aggregated into a four hour episode. Guests today include: Daniel Kahneman, Laurie Santos, Steven Kotler, Anders Ericsson, Philip Tetlock, and Colin Camerer. Daniel Kahneman has been called the most important psychologist alive today. He is the 2002 winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, and is the guy behind the theories of behavioral economics and behavioral finance. Laurie Santos is a professor of psychology and cognitive sciences at Yale University. Her research explores the evolutionary origins of the human mind by comparing the cognitive abilities of human and non-human primates. Santos is able to look at monkeys and their behavior in markets and money, and see the similarities with humans. Kotler is an American bestselling author, journalist, and entrepreneur. His articles have appeared in over 70 publications, including The New York Times Magazine, LA Times, etc. Anders Ericsson is a Swedish psychologist and Conradi Eminent Scholar and Professor of Psychology at Florida State University. He is internationally recognized as a researcher in the psychological nature of expertise and human performance. His new book is “Peak: Secrets from the New Science of Expertise.” Philip Tetlock is a Canadian American political science writer currently at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is right at the intersection of psychology, political science and organizational behavior. His book, “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction,” is about probabilistic thinking defined. Colin Camerer is an American behavioral economist and a Robert Kirby Professor of Behavioral Finance and Economics at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech). Camerer’s research is the interface between cognitive psychology and economics. In this episode of Trend Following Radio: Remembering self vs. Experiencing self How the measures of happiness are being implemented into public policy How failure to accept one’s losses can lead to risk-taking in trading Crowd behavior relating economic bubbles Why capitalism is largely driven by optimism Behavioral economics affecting the trading world Monkeys and humans The monkey economy The endowment effect G.I. Joe fallacy Discipline and practice Solo and group practice Flow state Social motivation The late birthday rule 10,000 hours of practice Nature vs. nurture Brain plasticity What are superforecasters? Probabilistic thinking Looking at data The basis of decision making

In this episode we discuss the radical mismatch between your intuitive sense of risk and the actual risks you face. We look at why most experts and forecasters are less accurate than dart throwing monkeys. We talk about how to simply and easily dramatically reduce your risk of most major dangers in your life. We explore the results from the “good judgment project” study of more than 20,000 forecasts. We talk about what superforecasters are and how they beat prediction markets, intelligence analysts with classified information, and software algorithms to make the best possible forecasts and MUCH more with Dan Gardner.    Dan Gardner is a New York Times best-selling author and a senior fellow at the University of Ottawa’s Graduate School of Public and International Affairs. His latest book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, which he co-authored with Philip Tetlock. Superforecasting was chosen as one of the best books of 2015 by The Economist, Bloomberg, and Amazon. Dan is also the author of Future Babble and Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear and previously worked as a policy advisor to the Premier of Ontario and a journalist with the Ottawa Citizen. How and why people make flawed judgements about riskThe radical mismatch between our intuitive sense of risk and the actual risks we faceWhy we are the safest, healthiest, wealthiest people to live on planet earth (and we don't realize it)Why we focus on vivid, dramatic risks, and ignore the real dangers in our livesHow to simply and easily dramatically reduce your risk of most major dangers in your lifeThe power of “meta cognition,” what it is, and why it’s so importantLessons you can learn from the mega successful investor George SorosWhy most forecasters are less accurate than monkeys throwing dartsThe difference between foxes and hedgehogs (and why you never want to be one of them)The inverse correlation between fame and prediction accuracyWhat cancer diagnosis shows about how averse people are to uncertaintyThe universal principles of good judgementThe importance of intellectual humility and intellectual curiosityWhy certainty is an illusion and nothing is ever certainWhy everything is a question of degrees of maybe (probabilistic thinking)The results from the “good judgement project” study of more than 20,000 forecastsWhat superforecasters are and how they beat prediction markets, intelligence analysts with classified information, and software algorithms  to make the best possible forecastsThe differences between these “superforecasters” and regular forecastersThe importance of being “actively open minded"Why you should unpack smaller questions & looking things like base ratesHow to use “fermi estimates” to solve tough and challenging problemsWhy the growth mindset had a huge impact on positive ability to forecast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Chris and Elecia answer listener emails on-air. Patreon Embedded.fm blog SparkFun Tinker Kit BB8 Sphero Jewelbots (from #173) Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner  The Wild Robot by Peter Brown

How can you better forecast the future? What are the characteristics and habits of mind of those who are the best in the world at doing it? And why are those people rarely the forecasters featured in the national and international media? In their  bestselling book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner have shared their research on the elite few who correctly predict events that have not yet happened. Dan is an award-winning journalist, an editor, and the author of two other books, Risk and Future Babble. He recently joined the Canadian Prime Minister’s office as a senior advisor. In this episode, we talk about: what separates superforecasters from others making predictions the limits of even the best forecasters the two types of forecasters -- Hedgehogs and Foxes -- and which one is better how the intelligence community learned surprising things about their predictions the most common mistakes of amateur forecasters why the best forecasters are not smarter and don’t have more access to information the role of intellectual humility in forecasting how to learn to be a superforecaster Dan also shares the things he’s most curious about working on next. Selected Links to Topics Mentioned @dgardner @ptetlock Philip Tetlock Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction The Good Judgement Project The Fox and the Hedgehog George Soros IARPA Groupthink John F. Kennedy Bay of Pigs Cuban Missile Crisis Daniel Kahneman Thinking Fast and Slow Paul Slovic If you enjoyed the podcast, please rate and review it on iTunes. For automatic delivery of new episodes, be sure to subscribe. Thanks for listening! Thank you to Emmy-award-winning Creative Director Vanida Vae for designing the Curious Minds logo! www.gayleallen.net LinkedIn @GAllenTC

On this week’s show, Pat hands us an interesting segment about why some people have trouble telling their left from their right.  Adam “mewses” whether adult cats only meow at humans and not each other. Finally, Darren predicts you may find the recent book Superforecasting:The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner well worth a read.

My guest today is Philip Tetloc, a Canadian American political science writer currently at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is right at the intersection of psychology, political science and organizational behavior. Phil is also a co-principle investigator of The Good Judgment Project, a study on the art and science of prediction and forecasting. The topic is his book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: What are superforecasters? Probabilistic thinking Looking at aggregate data Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Philip Tetlock. Phil is a Canadian American political science writer currently at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is right at the intersection of psychology, political science and organizational behavior. His book, “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction,” is about probabilistic thinking defined. Phil is also a co-principle investigator of The Good Judgment Project, a study on the art and science of prediction and forecasting.Michael starts off asking, “Regular folks can beat the experts at their own game?” Phil says essentially that is correct. He started The Good Judgment Project in 2011. It was based around forecasting and was funded by the government. He was shocked by the amount of “regular” people he recruited for his study that were able to compete with, or do a better job predicting than professionals working for agencies such as the NSA.Michael and Phil move onto discussing the Iraq war. They discuss what the actual probability may have been of Saddam Hussein having weapons of mass destruction. George Bush claimed that it was a “slam dunk” when clearly there was not a 100% probability of weapons of mass destruction being there. Michael asks, “When is society going to adopt more of a probability mindset?” Phil says that soft subjective human judgment is going by the way side. Pundits saying, “Someday this will happen” without any real substance, will come to a stop. As long as a forecaster can say, “This may happen in the future” then they can never really be held accountable for being wrong. Michael brings up the example of Robert Rubin. Robert worked for Goldman Sachs and was under Bill Clinton during his presidency. He was a great probabilistic thinker. Everyone loved him until the 2008 crash. Phil uses him as an example of even the best prediction people getting it wrong.Bottom line, superforecasters look for aggregated data. They know there is interesting data laying around and they tend to look at crowd indicators heavily. The distinction between superforecasters and regular forecasters is their ability to start with the outside view and move to the inside slowly. Regular forecasters start with the inside view and rarely look at the outside view. Superforecasters also believe in fate less than regular forecasters do. When you highlight all the low probability events surrounding outcomes, such as the lottery, many chose to think the event was decided by “fate” or just “meant to be.” Superforecasters think in a way of “well someone had to win, and they did.” In this episode of Trend Following Radio: What are superforecasters? Probabilistic thinking Looking at aggregate data

章节（时:分:秒）： 00:00:00 开场，《IT 公论》会员计划 00:01:28 广告：Tapole，给你第一副好眼镜 00:04:36 听众反馈 00:14:35 Netflix 封杀跨地区观看 00:19:57 技术圈耻辱柱：百度 00:35:16 Rogue Amoeba 新品上市：Loopback 00:38:06 iOS 9.3 beta 发布 01:02:29 Facebook News Feed 推荐算法揭秘，以及网页减肥问题 01:47:59 尾声 本期会员通讯将于稍后发至各位会员邮箱。每月三十元，支持不鸟万如一和 Rio 把《IT 公论》做成最好的科技播客。请访问 itgonglun.com/member。若您无意入会，但喜欢某一期节目，也欢迎用支付宝或 PayPal 支付小费至 hi@itgonglun.com，支付宝用户亦可扫描下方二维码： 我们推荐您使用泛用型播客客户端订阅收听《IT 公论》，但您也可以在喜马拉雅、荔枝 FM 或网易云音乐收听。 相关链接 《IT 公论》博客 IPN 播客网络 Telegram 听众群列表 Netflix 不再允许用户利用 proxy 软件观看未获得本地区授权的视频 Rogue Amoeba 新品 Loopback 苹果关于 iOS 9.3 beta 的介绍 Facebook News Feed 算法揭秘 Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction 网页肥胖症危机 IPN 播客网络常见问题解答 人物简介 不鳥萬如一：字节社创始人 Rio: Apple4us 程序员

章节（时:分:秒）： 00:00:00 开场，《IT 公论》会员计划 00:01:28 广告：Tapole，给你第一副好眼镜 00:04:36 听众反馈 00:14:35 Netflix 封杀跨地区观看 00:19:57 技术圈耻辱柱：百度 00:35:16 Rogue Amoeba 新品上市：Loopback 00:38:06 iOS 9.3 beta 发布 01:02:29 Facebook News Feed 推荐算法揭秘，以及网页减肥问题 01:47:59 尾声 本期会员通讯将于稍后发至各位会员邮箱。每月三十元，支持不鸟万如一和 Rio 把《IT 公论》做成最好的科技播客。请访问 itgonglun.com/member。若您无意入会，但喜欢某一期节目，也欢迎用支付宝或 PayPal 支付小费至 hi@itgonglun.com，支付宝用户亦可扫描下方二维码： 我们推荐您使用泛用型播客客户端订阅收听《IT 公论》，但您也可以在喜马拉雅、荔枝 FM 或网易云音乐收听。 相关链接 《IT 公论》博客 IPN 播客网络 Telegram 听众群列表 Netflix 不再允许用户利用 proxy 软件观看未获得本地区授权的视频 Rogue Amoeba 新品 Loopback 苹果关于 iOS 9.3 beta 的介绍 Facebook News Feed 算法揭秘 Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction 网页肥胖症危机 IPN 播客网络常见问题解答 人物简介 不鳥萬如一：字节社创始人 Rio: Apple4us 程序员

Venkatesh Rao is the founder of Ribbonfarm and the author of Breaking Smart. “I would say I was blind and deaf and did not know anything about how the world worked until I was about 25. It took until almost 35 before I actually cut loose from the script. The script is a very, very powerful thing. The script wasn’t working for me.” Thanks to MailChimp and CreativeLive for sponsoring this week's episode. Show Notes: @vgr Ribbonfarm Rao on Longform [3:00] "Seeking Density in the Gonzo Theater" (Ribbonfarm • Jan 2012) [5:00] "You Are Not an Artisan" (Ribbonfarm • July 2013) [6:00] Breaking Smart: Season 1 [11:00] "Why Software Is Eating the World" (Marc Andreessen • Wall Street Journal • Aug 2011) [19:00] Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Philip E. Tetlock • Crown • 2015) [31:00] "The End of History?" (Francis Fukuyama • The National Interest • 1989) [pdf] [39:00] Quora [48:00] "Deep Play" (Aeon • Nov 2013) [48:00] "The American Cloud" (Aeon • July 2013) [48:00] "Why Solving Climate Change Will Be Like Mobilizing for War" (The Atlantic • Oct 2015)

The pundits we all listen to are no better at predictions than a “dart-throwing chimp,” and they are routinely surpassed by normal news-attentive citizens. So Philip Tetlock reported in his 02005 book, Expert Political Judgement—and in a January 02007 SALT talk. It now turns out there are some people who are spectacularly good at forecasting, and their skills can be learned. Tetlock discovered them in the course of building winning teams for a tournament of geopolitical forecasting run by IARPA—Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity. His brilliant new book, SUPERFORECASTING: The Art and Science of Prediction, spells out the methodology the superforecasters developed. Like Daniel Kahneman’s THINKING, FAST AND SLOW, the book changes how we think about thinking. Philip Tetlock is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania. With his co-researcher (and wife) Barbara Mellors he is running the Good Judgement Project, with its open competition for aspiring forecasters.

Most people are terrible at predicting the future. But a small subset of people are significantly less terrible: the Superforecasters. On this episode of Rationally Speaking, Julia talks with professor Phil Tetlock, whose team of volunteer forecasters has racked up landslide wins in forecasting tournaments sponsored by the US government. He and Julia explore what his teams were doing right and what we can learn from them, the problem of meta-uncertainty, and how much we should expect prediction skill in one domain (like politics or economics) to carry over to other domains in real life.

PHILIP E. TETLOCK (https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock), Political and Social Scientist, is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, with appointments in Wharton, psychology and political science. He is co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study, the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, and co-author (with Dan Gardner) of Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction . Class V Part I: https://www.edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-edge-master-class-2015-a-short-course-in-superforecasting-class-v

PHILIP E. TETLOCK (https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock), Political and Social Scientist, is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, with appointments in Wharton, psychology and political science. He is co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study, the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, and co-author (with Dan Gardner) of Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction . Class V Part II: https://www.edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-edge-master-class-2015-a-short-course-in-superforecasting-class-v

PHILIP E. TETLOCK (https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock), Political and Social Scientist, is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, with appointments in Wharton, psychology and political science. He is co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study, the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, and co-author (with Dan Gardner) of Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction . Class IV Part II: https://www.edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-edge-master-class-2015-a-short-course-in-superforecasting-class-iv

PHILIP E. TETLOCK (https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock), Political and Social Scientist, is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, with appointments in Wharton, psychology and political science. He is co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study, the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, and co-author (with Dan Gardner) of Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction . Class III Part II: https://www.edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-edge-master-class-2015-a-short-course-in-superforecasting-class-iii

PHILIP E. TETLOCK (https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock), Political and Social Scientist, is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, with appointments in Wharton, psychology and political science. He is co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study, the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, and co-author (with Dan Gardner) of Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction . Class III Part I: https://www.edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-edge-master-class-2015-a-short-course-in-superforecasting-class-iii

PHILIP E. TETLOCK (https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock), Political and Social Scientist, is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, with appointments in Wharton, psychology and political science. He is co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study, the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, and co-author (with Dan Gardner) of Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction . Class II Part II: https://www.edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-edge-master-class-2015-a-short-course-in-superforecasting-class-ii

PHILIP E. TETLOCK (https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock), Political and Social Scientist, is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, with appointments in Wharton, psychology and political science. He is co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study, the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, and co-author (with Dan Gardner) of Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction . Class II Part I: https://www.edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-edge-master-class-2015-a-short-course-in-superforecasting-class-ii

PHILIP E. TETLOCK (https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock), Political and Social Scientist, is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, with appointments in Wharton, psychology and political science. He is co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study, the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, and co-author (with Dan Gardner) of Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction . Class I Part I: https://www.edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-edge-master-class-2015-a-short-course-in-superforecasting-class-i

PHILIP E. TETLOCK (https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock), Political and Social Scientist, is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, with appointments in Wharton, psychology and political science. He is co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study, the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, and co-author (with Dan Gardner) of Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction . Class I Part II: https://www.edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-edge-master-class-2015-a-short-course-in-superforecasting-class-i