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In this episode of #DefenceDeconstructed the Triple Helix team, David Perry, Charlotte Duval-Lantoine, Dr. Alexander Salt, Geordie Jeakins, Dr. Alexander Wilner, explore how current political dynamics, particularly ongoing elections, the evolving Canada–U.S. partnership, and advances in technology, are influencing the priorities and operations of the CAF and DND. Triple Helix is a network composed of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI), the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs (NPSIA) at Carleton University, and industry that explores how a range of emerging technologies intersect with defence. // Guest bios: - Charlotte Duval-Lantoine is the Vice President, Ottawa Operations and a Fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, as well as Triple Helix's Executive Director and Gender Advisor. She is also a PhD Student at Deakin University, where she studies the influence the culture of the Canadian Army had on the killings of Somali civilians during Operation Deliverance. - Dr. Alexander Salt has a PhD from the University of Calgary's Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies and an MA in Political Studies from the University of Manitoba. His dissertation explores to what extent has the battlefield experience of the U.S. military influenced post-war organizational innovation. - Dr. Alex Wilner is an Associate Professor at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs (NPSIA) and the Director of the Infrastructure Protection and International Security (IPIS) graduate program, at Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada. - Geordie Jenkins is an Associate at Oliver Wyman, the leading global aerospace and defence advisory firm. In this role, Geordie advises clients in government-driven sectors in Canada, the United States, and NATO allies on a variety of issues. // Host bio: David Perry is President and CEO of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute // Recommended Readings: - “Neuromancer” by William Gibson. - “The Propagation Handbook: A guide to propagating houseplants” by Hilton Carter. - “Foundation” by Isaac Asimov. - “The Ones We Let Down: Toxic Leadership Culture and Gender Integration in the Canadian Forces” by Charlotte Duval-Lantoine. // Defence Deconstructed was brought to you by Irving Shipbuilding. // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Jordyn Carroll Release date: 18 April 2025
On this episode of #TheGlobalExchange, Colin Robertson interviews Perrin Beatty, PC, OC and Fen Osler Hampson to dive into their latest paper, Broken Trust: Managing an Unreliable Ally. They discuss concrete measures highlighted in the report to mitigate Canada's risk of depending on the U.S. from a defence, trade and economic perspective. // Participants' bios - Perrin Beatty, PC, OC is the former Minister of Foreign Affairs for Canada and former President and CEO to the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. He is currently a director and business advisor. - Fen Osler Hampson is the is currently Chancellor's Professor and Professor of International Affairs in the School. He former Director of the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, served as Director of the Global Commission on Internet Governance (GCIG) and is the President of the World Refugee & Migration Council. // Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, www.cgai.ca/colin_robertson // Reading Recommendations: - "A Woman of No Importance" by Sonia Purnell. // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Jordyn Carroll // Recording Date: April 4, 2025 Release date: April 7, 2025
This week on The International Risk Podcast, Dominic Bowen sits down with John Bruce, an expert in cybersecurity law and policy, to explore the evolution of state-sponsored cyber activity, and what these developments mean for businesses and governments worldwide.Cyber operations have changed significantly over the last few decades. Once highly targeted and discreet, state-sponsored cyber activities are now more opportunistic, widespread, and increasingly damaging. In this episode, John breaks down how governments attribute cyberattacks, the blurring lines between cybercrime and intelligence operations, and what this shift means for cyber defense strategies in both the public and private sectors.John Bruce is the former General Counsel for Field Effect Software Inc., a cybersecurity firm based in Ottawa. Before this role, he spent 22 years with the Department of Justice Canada, providing legal counsel and strategic policy advice on cybersecurity programs and operations. He currently teaches cybersecurity and cyber operations law and policy as an adjunct professor at Carleton University's Norman Paterson School of International Relations and a visiting professor at the University of Ottawa. He is also an Associate Fellow in the Cyber Security Program at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and a Senior Fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation, focusing on international cybersecurity law and governance. John holds an LL.B. and an LL.M. in law and technology.The International Risk Podcast is a must-listen for senior executives, board members, and risk advisors. This weekly podcast dives deep into international relations, emerging risks, and strategic opportunities. Hosted by Dominic Bowen, Head of Strategic Advisory at one of Europe's top risk consulting firms, the podcast brings together global experts to share insights and actionable strategies.Dominic's 20+ years of experience managing complex operations in high-risk environments, combined with his role as a public speaker and university lecturer, make him uniquely positioned to guide these conversations. From conflict zones to corporate boardrooms, he explores the risks shaping our world and how organisations can navigate them.The International Risk Podcast – Reducing risk by increasing knowledge. Follow us on LinkedIn for all our great updates.Tell us what you liked!
In this episode of #DefenceDeconstructed, Dr. David Perry sits down with Gordon Venner, Philippe Lagassé, Major General (Ret'd) Colin Keiver, Peter Jones and Troy Crosby to talk about the future of Canada-U.S. Defence Relations. This conversation is being supported by the Department of National Defence Minds Targeted Engagement Grant. // Guest bios: - Gordon Venner is the Vice Co-Chair of the Board of the Conference of Defence Associations (CDA). He is the former Associate Deputy Minister of the Department of National Defence. - Philippe Lagassé is a CGAI Fellow and Associate Professor and Barton Chair, Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University. - Major General (Ret'd) Colin Keiver is the former Deputy Commander of the Royal Canadian Air Force. - Peter Jones is a Professor at the University of Ottawa in Canadian Foreign Policy and Diplomacy. - Troy Crosby is a CGAI Fellow. He is the former Assistant Deputy Minister (Materiel) and Canada's National Armaments Director (2019-2024). // Host bio: David Perry is President and CEO of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute // Recommended Readings: - "The Price of Power" by Seymour M. Hersh. - "A Gentleman in Moscow" by Amor Towles. - "NGOs Mediating Peace" by Julia Palmiano Federer. - "Audit Culture" by Cris Shore and Susan Wright. - "Revenge of the Tipping Point" by Malcolm Gladwell // Defence Deconstructed was brought to you by Irving Shipbuilding. // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Jordyn Carroll Release date: 28 March 2025
Brian interviews Philippe Lagassé. Phillipe is Associate Professor and the Barton Chair at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs. Lagassé's research focuses on defence policy and procurement, and on the roles of Parliament, the Crown, and executive power in Westminster states, notably in the areas of foreign and military affairs. Philippe Lagassé talks about his article: “Can Canada-U.S. defence ties survive Trump?!” He says: “Both the Liberals and the Conservatives agree that Canada must meet NATO's 2 per cent of GDP defence spending target. We believe this is critically important, but this new spending cannot be devoted to doubling down on Canada's role as a junior partner of the United States military. Rather, we must use these extra dollars to build a more independent voice in the world by reorienting ourselves away from our present overwhelming military dependence on the U.S. The political message to our defence establishment must be clear; there will be extra money, lots of it even, but it must be spent on capabilities that will advance Canadian strategic autonomy or foster stronger partnerships with allies other than the United States.”
Balkan Devlan is interviewed on The Brian Crombie Hour. Balkan is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Transatlantic Program at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, an expert forecaster and Senior Consultant for Good Judgment, Inc., and an Adjunct Research Professor at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University. He is also a Founding Board Member of the Alliance for Global Security (AGS), and Member of the Editorial Board of the Journal of Geoeconomics. His recent article said: “The White House's budgetary aspirations indicate (Trump's America) is not an expansionist and imperialist America, but an insular, enfeebled and politically divided country that harks back to the 1920s and 1930s… Put simply, these budget priorities coupled with the neo-mercantilist and zero-sum rhetoric of the Trump administration on trade suggest a retrenchment to the Western Hemisphere, and a tacit recognition of Russian and Chinese claims to their alleged spheres of influence.” He asks: Is America imperialist or isolationist?
In this episode of The Global Exchange podcast, Colin Robertson sits down with Martha Hall Findlay, Philippe Lagassé, Bill Robson and Ian Brodie, to discuss the long-term effects and implications of the Trump-imposed tariffs on Canada. // Participants' bios - Martha Hall Findlay is the Director of the School of Public Policy and Palmer Chair in Public Policy, University of Calgary, CEO of the Canada West Foundation, Chief Sustainability Officer for Suncor and a Member of Parliament. - Philippe Lagasse is an Associate Professor and Barton Chair, Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University. He was recently awarded the Canadian Forces Medallion for distinguished service for his exemplary contribution to Canadian defence policy. - Bill Robson is President and CEO of the C.D Howe Institute. - Ian Brodie is a Program Director at CGAI and a Professor at the University of Calgary, Chief of Staff to Prime Minister Harper and the InterAmerican Development Bank. // Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, www.cgai.ca/colin_robertson // // Reading Recommendations: - "Time to Prepare" by Philippe Lagassé, https://www.readtheline.ca/p/philippe-lagasse-time-to-prepare - The Thursday Question by Ian Brodie, https://thethursdayquestion.substack.com/about // Recording Date: March 5, 2025 Release date: March 10, 2025
For this episode of the Global Exchange podcast, Colin Robertson talks with Hon. Perrin Beatty, Meredith Lilly, and Hon. Gary Mar about Canada-US relations in the wake of the Inauguration and the triumphalist return to presidential power of Donald Trump. // Participants' bios - Perrin Beatty is co-chair of the Carlton and CGAI sponsored Canada-US export group on Canada-Us relations. Most recently, he serves as the President and CEO of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce - Meredith Lilly is Professor and Simon Reisman Chair at Carleton University's Norman Paterson School of International Affairs. She previously served as International Trade Advisor to Prime Minister Harper - Gary Mar is President and CEO of the Canada West Foundation. A member of the Alberta legislature he held various cabinet portfolios. He later served as Alberta's Representative in Washington and then in Hong Kong and then returned to the private sector // Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, www.cgai.ca/colin_robertson // // Reading Recommendations: - "Dead Wake: The Last Crossing of the Lusitania", by Erik Larson: https://www.amazon.ca/Dead-Wake-Last-Crossing-Lusitania/dp/0307408876 - "A Gentleman in Moscow": https://www.imdb.com/title/tt8230448/ - "Curse of Politics: The Herle Burly Political Panel": https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/curse-of-politics-the-herle-burly-political-panel/id1579125546 // Recording Date: January 24, 2025.
If you look out at the world today, you might notice a growing trend in global politics: Again and again, voters are putting into power leaders that favor nationalistic or isolationist rhetoric and policies. Issues that require global cooperation — and sacrifice — like the climate crisis, nonproliferation of nuclear arms and the care of refugees are a hard sell to a citizenry increasingly concerned with economic and security problems affecting their own families and communities. As a result, nations all over the world turn ever inward and more distrustful of individuals and organizations beyond their borders. We see this dynamic play out again and again in conversations around immigration, and we've hosted more than a few such conversations on this podcast. But another realm of international politics that is affected by this change in global thinking is the place and influence of international and transnational organizations on the global scale. It's tempting to shrug and wonder why you should care. Today's guest, Dr. Michael Manulak, is here with an answer — and a challenge. The biggest issues we face today require global cooperation. That's not just a political reality; it's one grounded in our Catholic tradition. As Michael will discuss, the tenets of Catholic social teaching and the spirituality of St. Ignatius demand that we prayerfully contemplate the complex reality of our time and respond as best we're able. That means looking at our individual gifts and vocations as part of something bigger than ourselves. Dr. Manulak is an associate professor of international affairs, anchoring the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs' Diplomacy and Foreign Policy cluster in Ottawa. His research focuses on international organizations, multilateral diplomacy, Canadian foreign policy, global environmental politics and Non-Proliferation. An alumnus of the Government of Canada's Recruitment of Policy Leaders program, he served mainly within the Department of National Defense. In government, he represented Canada in international proliferation security negotiations, supported the national security review of foreign investments, and composed Cabinet documents within National Defense's Cabinet Liaison bureau. And coolest of all, the day before this conversation was recorded, he was awarded the King Charles III Coronation Medal at the Senate of Canada. The Medal recognizes those that have made a significant contribution to Canadian society. This is a timely and fascinating conversation. If you want to learn more about Dr. Manulak's work, visit his website https://michaelmanulak.com/.
The suspect of a deadly truck attack in New Orleans acted alone. That's the assessment of the FBI as it starts its domestic terrorism investigation into the attack on New Year's day. We get the latest from Stephanie Carvin, Associate Professor at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University.
After 50 years of the oppressive Assad regime, the people of Syria will get a new government. In just two weeks, rebel forces swept through the country and took control of the capital of Damascus. Now, the hard work of nation building begins. Can a new regime heal a traumatized country and usher in an era of peace and prosperity for the long-suffering Syrian people? Host David Smith speaks with Professor Elliot Tepper, Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University, about what's next for the country. We love feedback at The Big Story, as well as suggestions for future episodes. You can find us:Through email at hello@thebigstorypodcast.ca Or @thebigstoryfpn on Twitter
Meredith Lilly, a full professor and Simon Reisman Chair in International Economic Policy at Carleton University's Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, discusses the implications of president-elect Donald Trump's threat of tariffs on Canada, and how the Online Streaming Act (Bill C-11) fits within the broader context of bilateral tensions and uncertainty. This episode was made possible by the Digital Media Association and the generosity of listeners like you. The Hub Dialogues features The Hub's editor-at-large, Sean Speer, in conversation with leading entrepreneurs, policymakers, scholars, and thinkers on the issues and challenges that will shape Canada's future at home and abroad. If you like what you are hearing on Hub Dialogues consider subscribing to The Hub's free weekly email newsletter featuring our insights and analysis on key public policy issues. Sign up here: https://thehub.ca/join/.
This week marked 1,000 days since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Vladimir Putin has updated Russia's Nuclear Doctrine in response to Joe Biden authorizing long-range missiles for the Ukrainian military. Experts say the world's nuclear temperature just went up. Meanwhile, Donald Trump is set to take back the Oval Office in January. He has threatened to pull U-S support for Ukraine entirely. He has said he will end the war on his first day in power. The fate of Ukraine hangs in the balance. Professor Elliot Tepper is Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University. We love feedback at The Big Story, as well as suggestions for future episodes. You can find us:Through email at hello@thebigstorypodcast.ca Or by calling 416-935-5935 and leaving us a voicemailOr @thebigstoryfpn on Twitter
Today's guest: Jonathan Conricus - Senior Fellow - Foundation for the Defense of Democracies / Lt. Col (Ret.) - IDF Philippe Lagassé - Associate professor and the Barton Chair at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs. Jack Jedwab - President and CEO of the Association for Canadian Studies and the Metropolis Institute Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Guest: Stephanie Carvin, an associate professor at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa
Today's guests: Stewart Bell - National Online and Investigative Journalist for Global News Stephanie Carvin - Associate Professor of International Relations at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs. Andrew Leach - Energy and environmental economist with the University of Alberta's Faculties of Arts and Law Dr. John Moores - Associate Professor at York University, Director of the Graduate Program in Earth and Space Science / A Science Advisor to the President of the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) / Author - "Daydreaming in the Solar System" Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
On this episode of The Event Edit, David Perry speaks to Graham Davies, Meredith Lilly, and Patrick Rogers about the future of digital trade in Canada. Rick Tachuk delivers the opening remarks. This event was organized in partnership with the American Chamber of Commerce in Canada and with the support of the Digital Media Association. Guest bios: Graham Davies is the President and CEO of the Digital Media Association (DIMA) Dr. Meredith Lilly is Professor and the Simon Reisman Chair at The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs Patrick Rogers is the CEO of Music Canada Rick Tachuk is the President of the American Chamber of Commerce in Canada Host bio: Dr. David Perry, President and CEO, Canadian Global Affairs Institute Recorded on October 9, 2024 Produced by Charlotte Duval-Lantoine Find more at Cgai.ca
Last month, the US Department of Justice charged two employees of RT, a Russian state-controlled media outlet, in a $10 million scheme to create and distribute content to US. As the story evolved it became clear that the content was distributed by far-right influencers, including a Canadian.But Russia's been playing this game since it was the USSR. Its attempts to fracture politics in the west is nothing new. SO why has it worked so well? And what have we actually done in Canada to confront it?GUEST: Stephanie Carvin, former national security analyst, Associate Professor at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, author of Stand on Guard: Reassessing threats to Canada's National Security We love feedback at The Big Story, as well as suggestions for future episodes. You can find us:Through email at hello@thebigstorypodcast.ca Or by calling 416-935-5935 and leaving us a voicemailOr @thebigstoryfpn on Twitter
For this episode of the Global Exchange podcast, Colin Robertson talks with Laura Dawson, Nathalie Kinloch, and Ryan Greer. This podcast is associated with the work of the Expert Group on Canada-U.S. Relations, an initiative supported by The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University, and the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. // Participants' bios - Laura Dawson is Executive Director of the Future Borders Coalition: https://www.futureborderscoalition.org/ - Natalie Kinloch is the Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Bridge Corporation: https://federalbridge.ca/ - Ryan Greer is Vice President, Public Affairs and National Policy at Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters: https://cme-mec.ca/about/ // Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, www.cgai.ca/colin_robertson // // Read & Watch: - "Without Precedent: The Supreme Life of Rosalie Abella": https://gem.cbc.ca/without-precedent-the-supreme-life-of-rosalie-abella - "The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization", by Peter Zeihan: https://www.amazon.ca/End-World-Just-Beginning-Globalization/dp/006323047X - "The Habits That Hold Leaders Back, with Marshall Goldsmith": https://coachingforleaders.com/podcast/habits-that-hold-leaders-back-marshall-goldsmith/ - "Truth Be Told: My Journey Through Life and the Law", by Beverley McLachlin: https://www.amazon.ca/Truth-Be-Told-Journey-Through/dp/1982104961 // Recording Date: September 18, 2024.
For this episode of the Global Exchange podcast, Colin Robertson talks with Martha Hall Findlay and Carlo Dade about western Canadian interests in the Canada-US relationship. This podcast is associated with the work of the Expert Group on Canada-U.S. Relations, an initiative supported by The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University, and the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. // Participants' bios - Martha Hall Findlay is Director of the University of Calgary School of Public Policy - Carlo Dade is Director for Trade and Trade Infrastructure at the Canada West Foundation // Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, www.cgai.ca/colin_robertson // Read & Watch: - "Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman", by Richard Feynmann: https://www.amazon.ca/Surely-Youre-Joking-Mr-Feynman/dp/0393316041 - "Lincoln", by David Herbert Donald: https://www.simonandschuster.ca/books/Lincoln/David-Herbert-Donald/9780684825359 - "The Political Thought of Xi Jinping", by Steve Tsang and Olivia Cheung: https://www.amazon.com/Political-Thought-Xi-Jinping/dp/0197689361 - "On The Edge", by Nate Silver: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/ // Recording Date: September 17, 2024.
Greg Brady focuses in on blocking the box.. and the city's move to up the fines for those drivers who block intersections.. What will enforcement look like? We ask Jennifer McKelvie, Deputy Mayor, City Councillor and chair of the city's infrastructure and environment committee. Next, is lawyer and former council candidate April Engelberg – we get April's reaction to ‘blocking the box' fines and why she believes the temporary bus lanes on Spadina Avenue should be made into bike lanes once streetcars are back in service along that stretch.. Lastly, Dr. Casey Babb, Fellow with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, and an Instructor of global conflict at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University and we were talking about new documents that showed the RCMP feared they didn't have enough evidence to keep an alleged ISIS supporter in custody after his dramatic arrest in a small Quebec town near the U.S. border earlier this month. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Greg Brady focuses in on blocking the box.. and the city's move to up the fines for those drivers who block intersections.. What will enforcement look like? We ask Jennifer McKelvie, Deputy Mayor, City Councillor and chair of the city's infrastructure and environment committee. Next, is lawyer and former council candidate April Engelberg – we get April's reaction to ‘blocking the box' fines and why she believes the temporary bus lanes on Spadina Avenue should be made into bike lanes once streetcars are back in service along that stretch.. Lastly, Dr. Casey Babb, Fellow with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, and an Instructor of global conflict at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University and we were talking about new documents that showed the RCMP feared they didn't have enough evidence to keep an alleged ISIS supporter in custody after his dramatic arrest in a small Quebec town near the U.S. border earlier this month. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
After finally receiving news that the recent terrorist suspect who was planning an attack in New York City was on a Canadian student visa, Alex turns to an expert for some answers. Casey Babb is a Senior Fellow with the Macdonald Laurier Institute who also teaches Terrorism and International Security at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs. Casey and Alex talk about our broken immigration system, what reforms we could see coming, and how it's being used by bad actors to gain access to North America. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
On this episode of The Alex Pierson Podcast, our host takes on three major issues that affect all Canadians. First, with construction projects all over the city causing major traffic headaches and congestion Alex speaks wth Raly Chakarova, the executive director of the Toronto and Area Road Builders Association (TARBA). Raly tells Alex why she and other major construction associations are also telling Toronto City Council that they have to do a much better job of laying out these projects for everyone's benefit. Next, with news that the recent terrorist suspect who was planning an attack in New York City was on a Canadian student visa, Alex turns to an expert. Casey Babb a Senior Fellow with the Macdonald Laurier Institute who also teaches Terrorism and International Security at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs. Casey and Alex talk about our broken immigration system and how it's being used by bad actors to gain access to North America. And finally, in light of a startling report by Global News, we know now that roughly one child dies every three days in the provincial childcare network. Alex speaks with Jennifer Kagan and Philip Viater, who lost their 4-year-old daughter Keira in a similar manner, and why something that should never have happened in the first place keeps on happening. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
For this episode of the Global Exchange podcast, Colin Robertson talks with Hon. Perrin Beatty and Fen Hampson about Canada-US relations as we prepare for a new American political map. This podcast is associated with the work of the Expert Group on Canada-U.S. Relations, an initiative supported by The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University, and the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. This podcast is inspired by Perrin and Fen's paper for the Working Group, "CUSMA: High Stakes, Little Time": https://carleton.ca/npsia/wp-content/uploads/Canada-US-Expert-Group-Beatty_Hampson-EN-FINAL.pdf // Participants' bios - Perrin is CEO and president of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce and a Former Minister of many portfolios, including Defence and Foreign Affairs - Fen Hampson is the author of 15 books, and the editor of 33 books. He is also Chancellor's Profeeor and Profeesor of Intenral Relations at Carlton Unvierity // Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, www.cgai.ca/colin_robertson // Read & Watch: - "The Demon of Unrest: A Saga of Hubris, Heartbreak, and Heroism at the Dawn of the Civil War", by Erik Larsen: https://www.amazon.com/Demon-Unrest-Hubris-Heartbreak-Heroism/dp/0385348746 - "Isaac's Storm: A Man, a Time, and the Deadliest Hurricane in History", by Erik Larsen: https://www.amazon.ca/Isaacs-Storm-Deadliest-Hurricane-History/dp/0375708278 - "Breakdown: The Inside Story of the Rise and Fall of Heenan Blaikie", by Norman Bacal: https://www.amazon.ca/Breakdown-Inside-Story-Heenan-Blaikie/dp/198802515X - "Rogers v. Rogers: The Battle for Control of Canada's Telecom Empire", by Alexandra Posadzki: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/713400/rogers-v-rogers-by-alexandra-posadzki/ - "Chaos: Charles Manson, the CIA, and the Secret History of the Sixties", by Tom O'Neill: https://www.amazon.ca/Chaos-Charles-Manson-History-Sixties/dp/0316477559 - "Cracking the Nazi Code: The Untold Story of Canada's Greatest Spy", by Jason Bell: https://www.amazon.ca/Cracking-Nazi-Code-Canadas-Greatest-ebook/dp/B0BQMZGF4F // Recording Date: August 13, 2024.
Greg (@GregBradyTO) speaks with Dr. Casey Babb, Fellow with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, and an Instructor of global conflict at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University, about the RCMP laying terror charges against a person in Toronto after a lengthy national security investigation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Greg (@GregBradyTO) speaks with Dr. Casey Babb, Fellow with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, and an Instructor of global conflict at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University, about the RCMP laying terror charges against a person in Toronto after a lengthy national security investigation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
For this episode of the Global Exchange podcast, Colin Robertson talks with Tim Sargent and CGAI Fellows Lawrence Herman and John Weekes about Canada-US trade and the upcoming review of the CUSMA. This podcast is associated with the work of the Expert Group on Canada-U.S. Relations, an initiative supported by The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University, and the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. // Participants' bios - Lawrence Herman is a trade law specialist having served in the Foreign Service and then in private practise. He is a Senior Fellow and member of the National Policy Council of the C. D. Howe Institute - A foreign service officer, John Weekes served as Canada's Chief Negotiator for the NAFTA and then as our Ambassador to the World Trade Organization before a distinguished career in the private sector. - Tim Sargent is Senior Fellow and Director of Domestic Policy at the Macdonald Laurier Institue. A career public servant he held Deputy Minister and Associate Deputy Minister positions at Fisheries and Oceans, International Trade, Finance, and Agriculture and AgriFood, as well as senior positions at the Privy Council Office. // Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, www.cgai.ca/colin_robertson // Read & Watch: - "The Parthenon Marbles Dispute: Heritage, Law, Politics", by Alexander Herman: https://www.bloomsbury.com/ca/parthenon-marbles-dispute-9781509967179/ - "Statesmen, Strategists, and Diplomats: Canada's Prime Ministers and the Making of Foreign Policy", edited by John R. English and Patrice Dutil: https://www.ubcpress.ca/statesmen-strategists-diplomats - "No Trade Is Free: Changing Course, Taking on China, and Helping America's Workers", by Robert Lighthizer: https://www.amazon.ca/No-Trade-Free-Changing-Americas/dp/0063282135 - "Innovation in Real Places – Strategies for Prosperity in an Unforgiving World", by Dan Breznitz: https://politics.utoronto.ca/publication/innovation-in-real-places-strategies-for-prosperity-in-an-unforgiving-world/ // Recording Date: August 6, 2024.
Greg (@gregbradyTO) speaks with Dr. Casey Babb (@DrCaseyBabb), Fellow with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, and an Instructor of global conflict at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University, about the thwarted terror attack planned for the GTA. RCMP arrested a father/son duo who were in the 'advanced stages' of a terror attack linked to ISIS. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Greg Brady (@GregBradyTO) focuses in on on a thwarted terror attack in the GTA.. RCMP arrested a father/son duo who were in the ‘advanced stages' of planning a terror attack linked to ISIS.. We spoke with Andrew Kirsch (@AS_Kirsch), a former CSIS Intelligence Officer.. Now a Consultant on issues of physical, national and cyber security.. Author of, “I Was Never Here', about some of the answers we're still missing – like – how long were these two on the RCMP's radar? Next, Dr. Casey Babb (@DrCaseyBabb), Fellow with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, and an Instructor of global conflict at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University, joined us to talk about Canada's extremist problem. Lastly, Gili Zemer, a concerned mother of three Jewish children in the TDSB.. and we were talking about why she says the school board has failed to protect Jewish students – and how the TDSB has been silent about the rise in antisemitism – even prior to the October 7th attacks in Israel. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dr. Casey Babb, senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute in Ottawa, a fellow with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv and an associate fellow with the Royal United Services Institute in London. He teaches courses on terrorism and international security at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs in Ottawa Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
On today's episode of Defence Deconstructed, we have a Triple Helix two-parter for you. First, you'll hear Dave Perry speaks with our fellow and former Commander of the Royal Canadian Navy Vice Admiral Ron Lloyd about digital transformation and where the barriers lie. Today, we'll focus on Canada's classification system. Read Ron's paper on Canada's classification framework here: https://www.cgai.ca/canadas_security_classification_framework_the_biggest_impediment_to_realizing_our_digital_ambition Then, you'll hear a panel discussion on enabling connectivity for NORAD modernization between our Triple Helix post-doctoral fellow Dr. Alexander Salt, Chief of Staff to the then named Digital Transformation Office Major-General Christopher Zimmer, Senior Counselor at Palantir Technologies Shon Manasco, and Co-Director of Triple Helix and Associate Professor at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs Dr. Alex Wilner. That conversation was a panel from Triple Helix's first annual conference, which took place on May 1, 2024. This event was made possible thanks to the support of the Department of National Defence's MINDS program, CGAI's strategic sponsors Lockheed Martin Canada, General Dynamics, Hanwha Ocean and Defence, and Cenovus, as well as the American Chamber of Commerce in Canada, reception sponsor L3Harris Technologies, and coffee break sponsor Bell.
THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE RESPARKS CONFUSION TOWARDS BIDEN'S FRAILTY. IS HE TOO WEAK? OR IS IT JUST AGEISM? Libby Znaimer is joined by Anthony Quinn, Chief Community Officer, CARP, Rudy Buttignol, President, CARP, and John Wright, Executive Vice President at Maru Public Opinion. The squad talks about U.S. President Biden's performance at last week's debate as he admitted to "making mistakes" and "screwing up" during the debate against Donald Trump. People online say that he is too old to re-run for presidency. Is it true or is it just ageism? Environment Canada issued a heat warning yesterday for Toronto, which begs the question: should it be mandatory for all rental units and houses to provide air conditioning? POLITICAL CHAOS ENSUES IN FRANCE AS THE COUNTRY FACES HUNG PARLIAMENT AFTER ELECTION RESULTS Libby was joined by Randall Hansen, political science professor at UofT and Stephanie Carvin, political analyst and assistant professor at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University. The last round of France's legislative elections has ended and the results show that the country would have to deal with a hung parliament. New Popular Front (NPF) was the unexpected winner in the final round of voting in the country's parliamentary elections on Sunday, finishing with the most seats but falling short of an overall majority. Libby and guests discuss what's to come for France in the future. FAMILY MEMBERS OF HAMAS HOSTAGES ARE IN TORONTO TO RAISE AWARENESS Libby was joined by Sasha Arayev, sister of 19-year-old Karina Ayarev. Sasha shared Karina's story and how she was abducted on October 7th from Nahal Oz. "This is not a political thing. This is my family. I need to see the world's efforts to bring my sister back to safety," she said.
Last week, a bombshell report revealed multiple Canadian parliamentarians have, intentionally and unintentionally, worked with foreign agents to interfere in our politics. The revelation sparked furious debate around who these MPs are, what they've done to undermine Canada's interest and whether or not the "traitors"—as many called them—should be named.Today, we'll bring you on a deep dive into the world of foreign interference, security clearance, intelligence gathering and how to protect Canada's interests while still keeping the public informed. It's not as simple as naming names.GUEST: Stephanie Carvin, former national security analyst, Associate Professor at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, author of Stand on Guard: Reassessing threats to Canada's National Security We love feedback at The Big Story, as well as suggestions for future episodes. You can find us:Through email at hello@thebigstorypodcast.ca Or by calling 416-935-5935 and leaving us a voicemailOr @thebigstoryfpn on Twitter
So much of what we hear about China and Russia today likens the relationship between these two autocracies and the West to a “rivalry” or a “great-power competition.” Some might consider it alarmist to say we are in the midst of a second Cold War, but that may be the only responsible way to describe today's state of affairs. What's more, we have come a long way from Mao Zedong's infamous observation that “political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.” Now we live in an age more aptly described by Vladimir Putin's cryptic prophecy that “artificial intelligence is the future not only of Russia, but of all mankind, and whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become ruler of the world.” George S. Takach's incisive and meticulously researched new volume, Cold War 2.0, is the book we need to thoroughly understand these frightening and perilous times. In the geopolitical sphere, there are no more pressing issues than the appalling mechanizations of a surveillance state in China, Russia's brazen attempt to assert its autocratic model in Ukraine, and China's increasingly likely plans to do the same in Taiwan. But the key here, Takach argues, is that our new Cold War is not only ideological but technological: the side that prevails in Cold War 2.0 will be the one that bests the other in mastering the greatest innovations of our time. Artificial intelligence sits in our pockets every day—but what about AI that coordinates military operations and missile defense systems? Or the highly sophisticated semiconductor chips and quantum computers that power those missiles and a host of other weapons? And, where recently we have seen remarkable feats of bio-engineering to produce vaccines at record speed, shouldn't we be concerned how catastrophic it would be if bio-engineering were co-opted for nefarious purposes? Takach thoroughly examines how each of these innovations will shape the tension between democracy and autocracy, and how each will play a central role in this second Cold War. Finally, he crafts a precise blueprint for how Western democracies should handle these innovations to respond to the looming threat of autocracy—and ultimately prevail over it. George S. Takach holds a bachelor's degree in history, political economy, and philosophy from the University of Toronto; a graduate degree from the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University; and a law degree from the University of Toronto. For forty years, he practiced technology law at McCarthy Tétrault, Canada's premier law firm. He has written three books on technology law/tech commercial subjects. Cold War 2.0: Artificial Intelligence in the New Battle between China, Russia, and America is his first book for a general audience. He lives in Toronto. Shermer and Takach discuss: Vladimir Putin: “artificial intelligence is the future not only of Russia, but of all mankind, and whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become ruler of the world.” • what AI will be able to do in the coming decades • China's surveillance state • Russia and Ukraine • Cold War 1.0: Autocracy, Democracy and Technology • Cold War 2.0: AI and Autocracy and Democracy • semiconductor chip supremacy • biotechnology • how China's invasion of Taiwan is likely to unfold, and what the U.S. can do about it.
For this episode of the Global Exchange podcast, Colin Robertson talks with Lloyd Axworthy, Michael Manulak, and Allan Rock about the concept of a UN Trusteeship for Palestine, and what Canada's role could be in finding a political resolution to the conflict. // You can find their recent article for Foreign Affairs here: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/trusteeship-palestine // Participants' bios - Lloyd Axworthy is Chair of the World Refugee and Migration Council. He was Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs from 1996 to 2000. - Michael Manulak is an Assistant Professor at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University. - Allan Rock is President Emeritus of the University of Ottawa. He was Canadian Minister of Justice from 1993 to 1997 and Canadian Ambassador to the UN from 2003 to 2006. // Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, www.cgai.ca/colin_robertson // Read & Watch: - Diplomatic documents from the Canadian archives: https://www.international.gc.ca/gac-amc/history-histoire/external-relations_relations-exterieures.aspx?lang=eng - The works of the late Nobel Prize Winner Alice Munro: https://www.amazon.com/stores/Alice-Munro/author/B000APECX6? - "Free and Equal", by Daniel Chandler: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/743628/free-and-equal-by-daniel-chandler/ // Recording Date: May 17, 2024.
Greg spoke to Dr. Casey Babb, Senior Fellow with the MacDonald Laurier Institute, Fellow with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, and an Instructor of global conflict at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University about Ottawa cancelling a public ceremony for Israeli flag-raising, citing security concerns. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Greg spoke to Dr. Casey Babb, Senior Fellow with the MacDonald Laurier Institute, Fellow with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, and an Instructor of global conflict at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University. about his Op-ed: Jewish prof horrified by anti-Semitism on university campuses. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
For this episode of the Global Exchange podcast, we are featuring a keynote speech by Deputy Minister Rob Stewart from CGAI's Annual Trade Conference. Participants' bios - Rob Stewart is the Deputy Minister of International Trade at Global Affairs Canada Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, www.cgai.ca/colin_robertson The CGAI Trade Conference was made possible with the help of our strategic sponsors Lockheed Martin Canada, General Dynamics, Irving Shipbuilding, Hanwha Ocean and Defence, and Cenovus Energy. Thanks also go out to our Organizing Sponsors, the Simon Reisman Chair in International Economics and the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs. Recording Date: April 9, 2024.
This week's Defence Deconstructed is all about Our North, Strong and Free, Canada's defence policy update. First, Dave Perry and Nicolas Todd discuss the relevant aspects of the policy to the defence industry, with a focus on the budget and procurement projects outlined in the document. This is the recording of a webinar co-organized with CADSI. To access the slides, go to: https://assets.nationbuilder.com/cdfai/pages/5568/attachments/original/1712957147/Canadas_Updated_Defence_Policy—Industry_Reactions.pdf?1712957147 Then, Dave Perry is joined by RAdm (ret'd) Jeff Hamilton, Dr. Rob Huebert, Dr. Philippe Lagassé, and Charlotte Duval-Lantoine to deconstruct the various aspects of the policy. Defence Deconstructed is brought to you by Irving Shipbuilding. Guest bios: Nicolas Todd is Vice President Policy, Communications and Government Relations at CADSI. https://www.defenceandsecurity.ca/cms4/Executive-Team Jeff Hamilton is a retired Rear-Admiral and the senior advisor, defence and security at EY. https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeff-hamilton-m-s-m-and-bar-c-d-radm-ret%E2%80%99d-7b8a762b Rob Huebert is a Professor at the University of Calgary and a Fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. https://www.cgai.ca/rob_huebert Philippe Lagassé is Associate Professor at Carleton University's Norman Paterson School of International Affairs and a Fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. https://www.cgai.ca/Philippe_Lagasse Charlotte Duval-Lantoine is a Fellow and the Ottawa Operations Manager at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. https://www.cgai.ca/charlotte_duval_lantoine Host bio Dr. David Perry is President of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute – www.cgai.ca/david_perry Recording Date: 12 Apr 2024 Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on LinkedIn. Head over to our website at www.cgai.ca for more commentary. Produced by Charlotte Duval-Lantoine. Music credits to Drew Phillips
On this episode of Defence Deconstructed, David Perry speaks to Jennifer Parker about the latest development in Australia's ship acquisition plans. Then, Philippe Lagassé speaks to Judith Bennet, Mark Brown, Philippe Ducharme, and Clinton Lawrence-Whyte about how to meaningfully bring indigenous businesses into the defence procurement fold. This conversation is part of our 2023 Procurement Conference, which took place on November 29, 2023 in Ottawa. This conference was made possible thanks to the support of our strategic sponsors Lockheed Martin Canada, General Dynamics, Irving Shipbuilding, and Hanwha Defence; conference silver sponsors L3Harris, CAE, and Seaspan; as well as bronze sponsors Thales and Microsoft. Defence Deconstructed is brought to you by Irving Shipbuilding and the DND/CAF Ombudsman. Guests Bios: Jennifer Parker is an Adjunct Fellow in Naval Studies at UNSW Canberra and an Expert Associate at the National Security College, Australian National University. https://www.unsw.edu.au/staff/jennifer-parker Judith Bennett is the Director General Materiel Systems and Supply Chains at the Department of National Defence. Mark Brown is COO of the PFN Group of Companies and President of Pro Metal Industries. Philip Ducharme is the Vice President Entrepreneurship and Procurement at the Canadian Council of Aboriginal Businesses. Clinton Lawrence-Whyte is Director General Procurement Assistance at Public Services and Procurement Canada. Hosts bios Dr. David Perry is President of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute – www.cgai.ca/david_perry Dr. Philippe Lagassé is Associate Director of the PhD Program at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs and a CGAI Fellow. https://carleton.ca/npsia/people/philippe-lagasse/ Recording Date: 122 Feb2024 and 29 Nov 2023 Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on LinkedIn. Head over to our website at www.cgai.ca for more commentary. Produced by Charlotte Duval-Lantoine. Music credits to Drew Phillips
On this episode of Defence Deconstructed, David Perry speaks to Michael Manulak and Brian Finlay about the current state of WMD proliferation and Canada's role in countering increasing stockpiles. Then, you'll hear a discussion between Darren Hawco, Cynthia Cook, Troy Crosby, Wendy Gilmour, and Nicolas Todd about the NATO Defence Action Plan and the implications for Canada. This conversation is part of our 2023 Procurement Conference, which took place on November 29, 2023 in Ottawa. This conference was made possible thanks to the support of our strategic sponsors Lockheed Martin Canada, General Dynamics, Irving Shipbuilding, and Hanwha Defence; conference silver sponsors L3Harris, CAE, and Seaspan; as well as bronze sponsors Thales and Microsoft. Guests biographies Michael Manulak is an Associate Professor at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs and a CGAI Fellow – https://www.cgai.ca/michael_manulak Brian Finlay is the President and Chief Executive Officer of the Stimson Center – https://www.stimson.org/ppl/brian-finlay/ Cynthia Cook is director of the Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group and a senior fellow in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies – https://www.csis.org/people/cynthia-cook Troy Crosby is ADM (Materiel) at the Department of National Defence – https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/corporate/organizational-structure/assistant-deputy-minister-materiel/biography.html Wendy Gilmour was NATO Assistant Secretary General for Defence Investment from November 2022 and January 2024 – https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/who_is_who_208720.htm Nicolas Todd is CADSI's Vice President, Policy, Communications and Government Relations – https://www.defenceandsecurity.ca/cms4/Executive-Team Host biography Dr. David Perry is the President of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute – https://www.cgai.ca/David_Perry VAdm (ret'd) Darren Hawco is Executive Advisor at Deloitte and a CGAI Fellow – https://www.cgai.ca/darren_hawco What Michael and Brian are reading Prisoners of the Castle by Ben MacIntyre – https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/612488/prisoners-of-the-castle-by-ben-macintyre/9780771001970 Peacemaking 1919 by Harold Nicholson – https://www.amazon.com/Peacemaking-1919-Being-Reminiscences-Conference/dp/193154154X Recording Date: 12 Jan 2024 and 29 Nov 2023 Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on LinkedIn. Head over to our website at www.cgai.ca for more commentary. Produced by Charlotte Duval-Lantoine. Music credits to Drew Phillips
On this episode of The Global Exchange, Colin Robertson is joined by Kerry Buck and Michael Manulak to discuss their recent paper for Carleton University's Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, "Canada and the United Nations: Rethinking and Rebuilding Canada's Role". Find the paper here: https://carleton.ca/npsia/wp-content/uploads/Canada-and-the-United-Nations-Rethinking-and-Rebuilding-Canada%E2%80%99s-Global-Role_Final-Report-Digital-1.pdf Participants' bios - Kerry Buck is a CGAI Fellow, and was Canada's Ambassador to NATO from 2015 to 2018 - Michael W. Manulak is Assistant Professor at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, www.cgai.ca/colin_robertson Read & Watch: - "Change in Global Environmental Politics: Temporal Focal Points and the Reform of International Institutions", by Michael Manulak: https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/change-in-global-environmental-politics/3385DEB4375F0BC5C8EC22662BA7E0CF - "Mike: The Memoirs of the Rt. Hon. Lester B. Pearson", by Lester B. Pearson: https://www.amazon.ca/Mike-Memoirs-Hon-Lester-Pearson-1897-1948/dp/1442615648 Recording Date: November 3, 2023. Give 'The Global Exchange' a review on Apple Podcasts! Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs) and Linkedin. Head over to our website www.cgai.ca for more commentary. Produced by Joe Calnan. Music credits to Drew Phillips.
On this episode of The Global Exchange, host Colin Robertson moderates a panel discussion with Meredith Lilly, Steve Verheul, and Aaron Fowler about CUSMA and the planning underway for its mandatory renewal consideration in 2026. This panel was part of a discussion on our North American economic platform held in partnership with the Brookings Institution and the Business Council of Canada. For more on the CUSMA. especially for updates on our various trade disputes, visit the Brookings USMCA site: https://www.brookings.edu/projects/usmca-initiative/ Participants' Bios - Meredith Lilly is a CGAI Fellow and Advisory Council Member, as well as Associate Professor at Carleton University's Norman Paterson School of International Affairs where she holds the Simon Reisman Chair in International Economic Policy - Steve Verheul is former Chief Trade Negotiator for the Canada -US-Mexico and Canada-Europe trade agreements - Aaron Fowler is Associate Assistant Deputy Minister for Trade Policy and Negotiations at Global Affairs Canada Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, www.cgai.ca/colin_robertson Recording Date: September 26, 2023. Give 'The Global Exchange' a review on Apple Podcast! Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on Linkedin. Head over to our website www.cgai.ca for more commentary. Produced by Charlotte Duval-Lantoine and Joe Calnan. Music credits to Drew Phillips.
Tamar Gutner, associate professor of international affairs at American University's School of International Service, leads the conversation on the international financial architecture. FASKIANOS: Thank you. Welcome to today's discussion of the Fall 2023 CFR Academic Webinar Series. I'm Irina Faskianos, vice president of the National Program and Outreach at CFR. Thank you for joining us. Today's discussion is on the record and the video and transcript will be available on our website, CFR.org/academic if you would like to share them with your colleagues or classmates. As always, CFR takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. We are delighted to have Tamar Gutner with us to discuss the international financial architecture. Dr. Gutner is an associate professor at American University's School of International Service, and expert on the performance of international organizations and their roles in global governance. In 2019, she held a CFR Fellowship for Tenured International Relations Scholars at the International Monetary Fund's Independent Evaluation Office. She is the author of International Organizations in World Politics, published by CQ Press; and Banking on the Environment: Multilateral Development Banks and Their Environmental Performance in Central and Eastern Europe, published by MIT Press. And she recently completed a book manuscript on the birth and design of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and its role in the landscape of development banks. So, Dr. Gutner, thank you very much for being with us today. I thought we could begin by having you outline for us the various change-related proposals and activities facing the World Bank, other multilateral development banks, and the International Monetary Fund. Just a small question, but—(laughter)—over to you. GUTNER: Thank you. Thank you, Irina, for introducing me, and thank you for having me as part of this seminar. I think these seminars are just a fantastic way for scholars, professors, students, and others to engage with these important issues, and I'm really excited to see so many people from around the world and professors and students and I see some colleagues in the audience. So I'm really looking forward to engaging with all of you. Right, so this is a critical time for the IMF and the World Bank and other development banks because their importance has been heightened by the need for them to respond to the various crises and challenges that we're facing now. Many of these, as you know, are quite difficult to solve, like climate change. And the world is also dealing with the ongoing economic and social and health repercussions from the pandemic, the repercussions of Russia's invasion of Ukraine including food insecurity. And we're also living in a time when a lot more countries are at high risk of debt distress, and it's a time when it's becoming clear that progress toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals are stalling. We also have major geopolitical tensions, which is an issue as well. So the IMF and the World Bank are leading international organizations in this scenario today. The IMF has been called the center of the global financial safety net. And the World Bank, meanwhile, is the leading multilateral source of climate finance, and is also playing a huge role in responding to various development challenges that impact its borrowing countries. And also, the regional development banks are addressing these issues as well. So for people who support multilateralism, there's widespread agreement that no one state or actor can solve any of these cross-border issues on their own. And that means we're living in a time when cooperation and multilateral action is absolutely essential, and these people agree we need more to be done to address these issues. But we're also living in a time when many states have inward-looking politics, where there's rising nationalism and populism. And this has produced people and leaders who either don't see the value of international organizations (IOs) like the World Bank and IMF or they see them as contrary to national interests. The IOs themselves—the international organizations themselves—also struggle with relevance sometimes and mixed performance sometimes. And the IMF and World Bank constantly face criticism. They're always being criticized. But I think one important thing to remember is that there's no consensus among the critics. There are always people who want them to do more. There are people who want them to be abolished. So when you're exploring the kind of critiques of these organizations it's important to keep that in mind, just they're coming from different actors and they have different thoughts. And, meanwhile, these institutions themselves, they have—it's tricky for them because they have a tough job. They have to be responsive to their member-state shareholders, who don't always agree with each other. They have to try to be responsive to other stakeholders, for example civil society actors; they don't always agree with each other or with their member states. And so these institutions are constantly being pulled in different directions and they have to navigate that. To their credit, they do try to adapt and adjust, not always effectively. And there's also variation in what they've done well and haven't done well. But it's precisely at this time today with these international crises that the Bank and the Fund and the other MDBs—multilateral development banks—have to try to do better. And what I want to do is offer you a brief overview of some of their efforts to do so and some of the challenges that face these efforts. So I'll begin with the World Bank, which is in the midst of a process to figure out how to update its mission, its vision, its strategy, and its operating model. And this is a process that has been driven by shareholders, including the G20 members, and lots of other consultations. Last fall—well, first of all, I want to say there are a number of proposals on the table on how to reform the World Bank and other MDBs, and they have in common calling for these institutions to do a lot more to address climate change and other global public goods. And some of them call for more effort to better engage with private capital and to rethink how these institutions, which are in part banking institutions, how they can maximize the impact of their capital. So last fall the World Bank embarked on what's been called an evolution roadmap to think through ideas for what should be done. This came out late last year amid calls for the Bank to be bigger and better. And this initiative was launched by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen a year ago, and she led an effort with other non-borrowing and borrowing countries to call for the whole multilateral development bank system to evolve. As she put it, the world has changed and we need these vital institutions to change along with it. So the idea underlying all of these proposals is for MDBs to be more innovative and efficient. India made MDB evolution a priority in its presidency of the G20 this year, and there have been different expert panels that have also called for radically reformed and strengthened multilateral development banks. So what's interesting for this audience is this evolution roadmap process will eventually turn into the World Bank's strategy, its corporate strategy, and the latest version of it will be discussed next week at the IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Marrakesh. So if you're interested in following that, keep your eyes on the news. And the latest version is seeking approval for measures that will allow the World Bank to boost its lending by $100 billion. So this—the document circulating now for the development—the Joint Ministerial Committee of the World Bank and IMF—and we'll see what happens with it. And I'm happy to talk more about the document itself in the Q&A. These efforts to reform the World Bank are also impacting other regional development banks. So, for example, the Asian Development Bank recently announced it, too, will lend an additional $100 billion over the next ten years by relaxing some of its risk rules for its banking, how it manages its assets, without jeopardizing its triple-A credit rating. The IMF also has been trying to change and adapt in recent years. It's not directly part of this evolution framework that's focusing on MDBs, but the IMF has really turned attention to climate change and also to gender and inequality. And it's essentially pushing forward a kind of a slow change in thinking where economists, and finance ministers, and central bank leaders have realized that these issues are essential to macroeconomic stability. So climate change has become a more visible focus of the IMF's work, its work in surveillance, its capacity development activities, and its general work with countries. Its first strategy for mainstreaming gender was adopted in July 2022. And, like the World Bank, it has also created a number of mechanisms to respond to the pandemic. So it has a new resilience and sustainability trust. And the goal of it is to help low-income member states to address climate change and issues like pandemic preparedness. And it also has a new food shock window to offer emergency financing for countries facing food insecurity as a result of everything going on today. So this is—it's interesting to watch both of these institutions. The IMF typically has a harder time changing because it's a more rigid, set in its ways organization. But it, too—it's not your grandmother's IMF anymore. But all of these efforts are going to face their own sets of challenges. And I want to briefly highlight a few of them before we have our Q&A. So in the World Bank's roadmap, which is also being called a new playbook, the question is: Is it a zero-sum game to balance more focus on global public goods like climate change with individual countries' own development priorities? And there are many people who say, no problem. Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the IMF, when talking about this balancing issue, she said: Well, we can chew gum and walk at the same time. But these goals may have areas of overlap, where a country's own development issues do coincide with these global public goods, but there may be areas where they do not. And that's something that has to be worked out. There's also some criticism in civil society and other actors about asking the multilateral banks to do much more to engage with the private sector. First of all, this idea has been around for a while, this idea of turning billions and trillions, for example, was part of the 2015 UN Financing for Development Conference. And it hasn't really come through. So it's a difficult issue to do. There's going to be more work on it. But some organizations actually are concerned about potential negative effects of prioritizing incentives for private finance to provide co-financing to development efforts, because private sector goals are not always the same as public goals, right? So there's some areas of tension. And finally, I just want to flag that all of these organizations are calling for more collaboration. Collaboration is almost the magic wand that will help all these efforts to work out better. And, in fact, if you look at the IMF's new annual report, which was just published, it lists on its front page “committed to collaboration.” But, in fact, it's not that easy for these organizations to collaborate. And I'm happy to break that down a little bit more. And so this great emphasis on something that can be difficult will be something that these organizations have to grapple with. I'm happy to talk about more of the issues in our Q&A, but I think I should stop here and open it up to questions or comments. FASKIANOS: Thank you, Tammi. That was fantastic. So we're going to go to all of you for your questions. (Gives queuing instructions.) OK, so I'm going to take the first question from Mojúbàolú Olúfúnké Okome. Q: Thank you. Mojúbàolú Olúfúnké Okome. I'm a professor of political science at Brooklyn College. And I'm just wondering about this financial architecture that is much criticized, as you said. And I'm wondering the extent to which the criticism informs new decisions that are taken. So the criticisms about people who say the organization should be abolished is coming from the Global South, where there's been feeling since the 1970s that these organizations are not sufficiently sympathetic or understanding of the challenges faced by the countries that had unsustainable debt, and are still in a deeper state of unsustainable debt today. So how is the global architecture on these—in these organizations dealing with these challenges? I heard for the first time, like, in the last five years—Lagarde, I think it was—that said, oh, we made mistakes in some of the advice that we were giving. So who pays for those mistakes? People's lives are damaged, economies are wrecked. And you know, so what are the—what's the good of these changes, really? GUTNER: Yeah, thank you so much for that question, because that's a really good reflection on some of the harsh criticism that these institutions face. And I also would not be someone who says they do everything right, because they don't. But it has been interesting to watch some of the ways that they've evolved. So, for example, they do interact much more with civil society than they used to. I mean, it used to be in the old days when the IMF and World Bank had their annual meetings, civil society actors would protest outside on the street in Washington, DC. And I would tell my students, feel free to go down there but please maybe try not to get arrested, you know? So there were—there were very large protests. Now, when they have the annual meeting, civil society actors are in—are part of it. They're engaged in seminars. They're engaged in discussion. The institutions have strengthened some of their accountability measures, although I could argue some of them are also still weak. But there have been changes. So for example, the IMF now addresses and thinks about social protection, which it didn't used to do, and social safety nets, which it didn't used to do in the past. So you can argue that these changes aren't enough, and they're too late, and it's still harmful. But I think there is evidence that they do try to evolve and adapt, maybe not perfectly. And also, it's really difficult to change a huge institution. It's like turning a large ship. You know, it doesn't happen quickly. But the narrative today is different from the past. I mean, there is—there is more focus on climate change, for example. Which you can argue some countries, it's not really their priority. But even that's changing. More countries, more developing countries, are realizing that issues of climate change are related to them, whether it's through natural disasters, you know, hurricanes, floods, mud—you know, all of this. So I think it's—I think this criticism is still out there. And it exists. The institutions are imperfect. But they do—they do slowly try to adjust and adapt. And if you dig into it, if you go into detail, you'll find that they do a better job in some issues than others, in some countries than others, in some periods of time than others. So as a scholar I would argue that you—it's hard to make a blanket statement about them without kind of unpacking, you know, specific cases and over time. FASKIANOS: Thank you. I'm going to take the next written question from Jon-Paul Maddaloni, a military professor at the U.S. Naval War College: For the World Bank, what is the definition of creditworthy? Is this a debt-to-GDP ratio? Is there a standard here that may be part of the developing world grievance against the World Bank? GUTNER: So there are complex ways of assessing that. But basically, one of the major ones is to decide if a country is eligible for IBRD loans, which are International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the main part of the World Bank, which are loans that have to be repaid. And if a country is relatively less creditworthy or poor countries can access grants, or no-interest loans, or concessional funding from the World Bank's arm that's called IDA, the International Development Association—or, Agency. (Laughs.) I just—I just call it IDA. So if you're—if you're able to access IDA funding, you're relatively less creditworthy. The World Bank also has other facilities to offer—both the bank and also the IMF—capacity development, which is just money given for technical assistance. And those are the different categories for the World Bank. So countries can change category. So if a country becomes more economically stronger, it can graduate from IDA concessional financing. If it becomes weaker, it can access that financing. And there are some countries which can get a blend. In other words, they're creditworthy enough to be able to take some amount of loans, but not enough so that all of their financing can be a loan form. So these are some of the ways that the World Bank responds to different categories of creditworthiness. FASKIANOS: Fantastic. I'm going to take the next question from Fordham's International Political Economy and Development Program. They have a raised hand. If you can just say who you are. (Laughter.) Q: Thank you for being with us today. I'm Genevieve, part of the Fordham IPED Program. My question is, what are some specific examples of how a country's national political landscape and private interests cause these setbacks for cross-sectoral collaboration in these development banking efforts? And how do these large banking institutions work around corruption, for example? GUTNER: I'm sorry. Can you repeat the first part about collaboration—cross-sectoral collaboration? Q: Yeah. What are some specific examples of how a country's national political landscape and private interests cause setbacks for cross-sectoral collaboration for these development banks? And then we could take corruption as an example. GUTNER: So I'm not 100 percent sure what you mean by the—by the cross-sectoral collaboration. When I'm focusing on collaboration, or when the narrative is focusing on collaboration, it's really focusing more on collaboration between, for example, the World Bank and IMF. How do they collaborate? And the answer to that is, they haven't collaborated well for almost eighty years. But that's not—what I think you're asking is, what happens between these institutions and the national level? Well, one issue—the issue of corruption has become much more widely discussed in both the World Bank and the IMF. In the past, it was seen as a domestic political issue, which is really outside their articles of agreement. They're not supposed to get involved in these domestic political issues. But there's much more awareness today that corruption—for example, in the IMF—corruption impacts a government's health—the fiscal health, their ability to have money to spend on development. And the same is true for the World Bank. So there's much more attention on these issues. The institutions still have to navigate carefully so that they don't look like they're getting involved in politics, even though they can't really avoid it. But so corruption is much higher on the priority list. And it can impact a country's ability to get funding from either institutions. So from the World Bank, and they have—they have lists of companies they won't work with in procurement, for example, who are barred from engaging in procurement. And it's part of discussions. It shows up in the partnership—the framework documents that both countries produce for individual countries. So a kind of a—this is a long way to say, it's on the radar and it matters. But a lot of the collaboration issues are related to how the institutions work with each other. But also in country, I should add, that in some countries the donors collaborate on the ground. So they meet together and they try to make sure they're not overlapping. There's—it doesn't always work very well. You know, in some cases it works better than others. But for the institutions to collaborate more with each other, they have faced many challenges in doing that. FASKIANOS: Thank you. I'm going to take the next question from Joshua McKeown, associate provost and director of the international education at State University of New York at Oswego: For context, how much lending does the World Bank do in comparison with regional development banks? GUTNER: Well, I guess it depends. I don't have all that data at my fingertips, but the World Bank in the last—in—let's see, I do have the World Bank data at my fingertips. Let me just pull it up. See where I had it. The World Bank in its current annual report, the IBRD committed $38 and a half billion in 2023. IDA committed $34 billion. The regional banks are much smaller, so the World Bank tends to be the largest. But there's also a lot of variation across the regional banks as well. Now it's important to say that they will often cofinance projects with each other. So the regional banks will engage with the World Bank, and they'll have shared projects, and they'll work together. There are times where they also will compete with each other on occasion. They might both be interested in funding an airport—building an airport somewhere. And one of them may offer more attractive terms than the other. But the competition is not kind of a serious problem, because basically wherever you look in the world, there's almost an infinite demand for infrastructure finance. You know, show me a city that doesn't need a new metro, or the roads repaired, right? So there's a lot of demand out there for these banks to be able to do what they do. And but that has to be tempered with the, on the other side, how much debt can an individual country take on? And that's where we're seeing more serious problems today. FASKIANOS: Thank you. I'm going to take the next question from Samia Abdulle from Professor Fazal's class. And she is at the University of Minnesota: How has COVID-19 renewed the debate about the World Bank's role in international development? GUTNER: That's a great question, because when it comes to crisis, member states turn to these institutions right away. And this is a little separate from your question, but before the global financial crisis, for example, the IMF and the World Bank had seen their demand for their services drop dramatically. There were questions about the legitimacy of the IMF. Then the global financial crisis hit and, boom, they were kind of the go-to organizations to help respond to these issues. So the World Bank and the IMF both responded pretty rapidly to the pandemic. And they each came up with new facilities, they got money out the door quickly, they relaxed some of their conditions. So they both had a kind of a robust response. Now, there are people who are saying, well, it was not enough. It should have been more. But, you know, they did a lot. And in an emergency situation, also, you have to remember, they all had to work at home as well. So everybody was working at home. Nobody could travel, but yet they got a lot of money out the door quickly, in different kinds of ways. And I think what we're going to have to revisit down the road is, did any of that money disappear? You know, where—was there accountability for all this money, because it was moved out the door so quickly. And the head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, would say: Just save your receipts. (Laughs.) Just save your receipts. But that's going to be something to see, what happened with this money, where did it actually go, how did accountability work? But the World Bank alone got $30 billion—it dispersed $30 billion in fifteen months at the beginning of the pandemic in emergency support. So they really did step up. And whether it was enough or not is a matter of opinion. But they moved—they did move quickly. And I should just add, since you asked about—I just want to add one thing. The World Bank was involved in getting people access to vaccines, helping weak health infrastructures in countries, and all kinds of issues related to the pandemic. FASKIANOS: Fantastic. So I'm going to take the next written question from Yiagadeesen Samy, who's the director of the School of International Affairs at Carleton University in Canada: You already covered the AIIB in your opening remarks, and we will be circulating this transcript in the video later, but let's look at the second part of the question. Can you comment a little bit on whether the proposed changes to MDBs are a reaction to China's growing influence? And if so, what your views are about the changing geopolitical economic dynamics? GUTNER: It's so great people are asking these simple questions. (Laughs.) FASKIANOS: I know! GUTNER: Yes. FASKIANOS: Keeping you on your toes! (Laughs.) GUTNER: Yes. So let me preface by saying this: China has different strategies in development banking. On one side, you have the AIIB, for example. On the other side, the Belt and Road Initiative. The AIIB is not—in my research, it's cut from the same cloth as other development banks. It's not a threat. It's a part of the landscape of development banks. It's part of the community. It was designed by an international group of experts. In fact, the person who wrote the AIIB's articles of agreement was an American. And the person who designed the AIIB's environmental and social framework was an American. So it was a—it was a real international effort. And in fact, the World Bank helped the AIIB get set up. So the World Bank volunteered staff and gave the AIIB advice on things like vacation policy and office furniture. This is the Beijing office of the World Bank. And the World Bank even ran the AIIB treasury at the beginning, and it cofinanced projects. So the AIIB is cut from the same cloth as development banks. Now, it does have some differences. It's has—it's much smaller. It has a staff under four hundred. The World Bank is ten thousand, for example. And so there are some people who think it might have spurred the World Bank to pay more attention to doing more on infrastructure, which it had moved away from a little bit because that's the AIIB's focus. But the Belt and Road is something different. It's a bilateral initiative. It's an umbrella for Chinese financial institutions to lend money for infrastructure. It's not actually an organization. It's just an umbrella term. And there are differences, because the banks lending under the Belt and Road, Chinese institutions, they don't follow global norms on environmental and social framework, on safeguards. They're not transparent. We can't—we don't know how the loan is structured. They don't report the lending numbers to the Paris Club, for example. So there's a real difference between China's strategy in the AIIB and China's strategy in the Belt and Road, which reflects the different natures. There's not one Chinese strategy. So I think, in a way, the existing development banks help the AIIB more, and their staff help the AIIB more. The Belt and Road is a separate thing. But what I think is going to be interesting is to see if the borders, the boundaries between what is done following global norms, and rules, and procedures, if there's any kind of crossover with what's inside those borders and what's outside those borders. So for example, the AIIB is hosting a facility to help countries better design infrastructure projects that might be undertaken under Belt and Road. And so we just have to keep an eye on that. But it's not—it's not a bleak or black and white picture, the way some people describe it. FASKIANOS: Fantastic. A good follow up question from Steven Shinkel, who's the military professor of national security affairs at U.S. Naval War College: Can you compare the relative use of concessional loans between the World Bank and China? What about loan forgiveness, especially in regions such as Africa and South America? GUTNER: Right. So most of the Chinese lending under Belt and Road is not concessional. Most of it is not concessional. And often interest rates are higher than a comparative loan, even from the IBRD, even non-concessional lending. So they will often charge higher interest rates, but they will have less conditionality. So a country trying to decide who to take a loan from will have to weigh that. Do we want a lower interest rate loan from the World Bank that might have more policy conditionality, we might have to adjust our policy, we might have to think about environmental impacts more? Or do we want a slightly more expensive loan from a Chinese lending institution, but it doesn't have any strings attached? So that's kind of the part of the decision-making that borrowers have to go through. On debt—the second part was on, I'm sorry, the question disappeared. On debt? FASKIANOS: Oh, sorry. Yes, the second question is: What about loan forgiveness, especially in regions such as Africa and South America? GUTNER: Well, that's something that's being widely discussed right now, because Chinese institutions haven't been as comfortable about that, or as used to that. And they're—you know, they're being pushed by other institutions. Hey, you have to take a haircut too. We all have to—we all have to do that. There is a little bit of that going on. But it's something—I mean, if you read the article suggested in the email about this talk by Deborah Brautigam, she really unpacks that in great detail. And she makes an argument that there's some kind of learning and give and take that's happening and we need to see more of it. FASKIANOS: Fantastic. Next question from Lindsey McCormack, who's a graduate student at CUNY Baruch College: There's a lot of activity in the U.S. and Europe with new disclosure standards on climate and social impacts of corporations. How do the multilateral development banks relate to this activity? Are they seeing more pressure to discuss—oh, sorry—disclose climate and social impacts of their lending? GUTNER: Yes. (Laughs.) Yes. Now, they already do a lot. They already have environmental and social safeguards. And they've all moved away from funding oil and gas, or mostly oil and some gas. So they're moving away from that. And they're all working together, actually—I mean, I think it's an important example of networking—of the network of MDBs—that they're all moving toward meeting—complying with the Paris Agreement and showing how they're doing that. Now, some of this is how they measure things, and how they label things, and how they account for things. So there's still some debate on whether they're doing enough. But there's, for sure, pressure from NGOs and others. And the banks are moving in that direction. And they're—they're proudly touting how their projects comply. A high percentage of their projects are complying with the Paris Agreement. But there's still some interesting criticism coming out. So, for example, there was a recent report by a German NGO that said the World Bank's private sector lending arm, the IFC—that the IFC was making loans for trade support where that money might go into oil and gas. But you can't tell, right? So they were calling for more transparency on how the IMF is—how the IFC is doing trade credits. So that's something that's very recent. You can look that up and read more about it. FASKIANOS: Just to follow on, how are the multilateral development banks structured? And how effective do you think they are? GUTNER: Structured in terms of what? I mean, I can talk generally in case—so they— FASKIANOS: Yeah, I think corporate structure. GUTNER: So they have—they all have board of governors, which are all the top relevant officials of their member states, typically the finance minister or the central bank head. And they meet once or twice a year. And they make the big decisions. So one thing that's important to realize is a lot of these countries are members of a lot of development bank—there's a lot of overlap in membership. And that's also a way to cross-fertilize ideas, and policies, and things like that. They all have boards of directors, which are more engaged with the day-to-day business. And the—voting is based on your shareholding in the development bank. And that is based broadly on your economic strength. So the economically stronger companies have—stronger countries have a larger share and more voting power. And then you have the presidents of these organizations that have an important leadership role. And then you have the staff. So that's basically the structure of these development banks. And meeting next week are the board of governors and the directors in Marrakech for the World Bank and IMF. And you can see how they engage with staff and how they help set the strategic tone for the institutions. FASKIANOS: Fantastic. And I just want to remind everybody to raise your hand if you want to ask a question. Everybody's a little bit shy today, or else Tammi's been so thorough that you have no questions. (Laughter.) But I have more questions. But first, I'm going to go to Don Habibi, who is a professor at the University of North Carolina Wilmington: With yesterday's stock market plunge and political instability in the U.S., how much concern should we have over the multitrillion-dollar national debt? GUTNER: So that's not an issue that directly impacts the international financial institutions, the IMF, and the World Bank, right now. I mean, the U.S. is the largest shareholder of both, and they both—or, the World Bank has a AAA credit rating. So it's not really—we might be concerned over national debt, but so far it's not having a big impact on the dollar. So far, it's not having a big impact on investment. So there's always kind of some concern, but it's not—it's not translating into anything that's making people nervous about how these organizations operate. But, you know, one place to look for an answer, I'll tell you this, is when the IMF does surveillance, it does—which are its reports on the economic health of individual member states. It does these surveillance reports even on the rich countries. It does them for everyone. So I would suggest you look for the latest article for surveillance report that the IMF has done on the United States, and see what it has to say about concerns about debt. FASKIANOS: Fantastic. You recently completed a book manuscript on the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Some policymakers and scholars have argued it is a threat to the World Bank. Can you talk about if you agree with that or disagree? GUTNER: Oh, right. So I answered a little bit of that earlier, actually, which is: I don't think it's a threat because I think it's cut from the same cloth as these other development banks in terms of it has similar policies, it has similar governance rules. The World Bank—it's signed MOUs, memoranda of understanding, with all these other development banks. It cooperates with them. It cofinances projects with them. So I think the narrative of the AIIB being a threat is not correct. Could something change in the future? Who knows. But there has been a recent scandal at the AIIB. And we don't know how that will yet be resolved, where this past summer the Canadian director of communications resigned dramatically, suddenly, arguing that Communist Party committees were somehow involved in the work of the bank. And we—so, Canada froze its membership. So that's a bit of a scandal and a crisis at the AIIB. And Canada is doing its own report on what happened. So I kind of think we have to see what comes out of that report. If Canada decided to leave the AIIB, would it impact any other members? Too early to say. But so far, there's nothing directly threatening about its work. It's walked and talked and behaved like other development banks. It does have some differences. It has a nonresident board, which was seen as a cost-saving measure. You know, why have all these people sit around and cost a lot of money? But there are some civil society actors who think that that could produce less accountability. If the board is not there, you know, the bank has more kind of autonomy to do—more independence. So there are some differences. But so far, it's been just another member of the multilateral development bank system. FASKIANOS: Thank you. All right. We have more hands raised, which I'm very excited about. Tanisha Fazal, who is the Weinstein chair of international studies at University of Richmond: You mentioned the difficulties of collaboration between IMF and the World Bank. Can you please elaborate on what you see as the primary obstacles to collaboration between MDBs? GUTNER: Yes. I'm happy to talk about that. So that was the topic of my year—my Council on Foreign Relations fellowship at the International Monetary Fund's Independent Evaluation Office. And we were evaluating Bank-Fund collaboration. And I was part of the overall evaluation, which you can find online. And I also wrote a separate paper on the history of Bank-Fund collaboration. And I found it to be absolutely fascinating, because these two institutions were created together at the Bretton Woods Conference. And they're called the Bretton Woods twins. They're literally across the street from each other. There's an underground passage that connects the two. They interact all the time. They have a joint orchestra. I don't know if anybody knew that. (Laughs.) They used to share a library. So there's a lot of—if any two organizations should be able to work closely together, it's these two, right? This should be your best case, and yet they've struggled for their entire existence. And I think one of the obstacles is that over time their issues have overlapped. So an example of that is today, when the IMF is doing more on climate change, gender, and inequality, which traditionally is the work of the Bank. So their work has kind of—over time, given the issues facing the world, it's kind of naturally overlapped. And what I found that was very interesting is in over twenty-five different formal attempts the two institutions produced to collaborate with each other—memos and announcements by the heads of the institutions—for decades, what they meant by collaboration was turf delineation. Collaboration meant you stay out of my territory. (Laughs.) I don't think of that as collaboration. It's working together on a common objective, right? So that was what they meant by it, and for many years what they—what the solution was, that the institution that's not in charge of this issue should yield to the judgment of the other one—the yield to the judgment one. So I think turf overlap has been a problem. But even when they make an effort, often they have different incentives, they have different budget cycles, they have different—you know, it's just not that easy. And the IMF's latest strategy for collaboration has been when IMF staff encounter an issue that they don't have expertise in, they should leverage the expertise of the World Bank and other partners. Well, that, to me, sounds like one-way collaboration, which is an oxymoron, right? That if the IMF needs help, it should call the IMF and get help—I mean, call the World Bank and get help. But for the World Bank, they might be busy. (Laughs.) So those kinds of challenges persist. There have been times where they do create a truly collaborative effort, like the HIPC Initiative, or the FSAPs, or the PRSP—sorry for all the acronyms—but where they—where they have a shared work program and shared guidance and shared expectations. Those have tended to work better than big umbrella exhortations by the leaders saying: Collaborate! You know, do more collaboration. Those have tended to work better, but they also run into individual problems. So really, the upshot is, even though you would expect collaboration to be the easiest and make most sense between these two institutions, in fact, it's often been a struggle. And some people found, when I mentioned the IMF's resilience trust, that's something that would normally have been undertaken by the World Bank. So they have not—they have had challenges collaborating, and those continue. FASKIANOS: Thank you. And I need to correct the record, my apologies. So that question was from Tanisha Fazal, who is an associate professor of political science at the University of Minnesota. So the next question is from Sandra Joireman, who is the Weinstein chair of international studies at University of Richmond. So my apologies. So this this question is from Sandra: Some of the previous efforts to address the environmental impacts of certain projects were ineffective. Do you think new efforts to address the environment and climate challenge change will be better? If so, why? GUTNER: So I'm guessing you're referring to the World Bank? And, yes, there's a whole long history of the Bank addressing environmental issues. And it really started in the 1980s, when NGOs identified projects that had gone horribly wrong and caused enormous environmental degradation. Like the Polonoroeste highway in Brazil. It was a famous—infamous example. And the Narmada dam in India. These are infamous examples. But when you look over the years, there have been improvements to what kinds of things the Bank can lend money to, how strong the environmental and social safeguards are. So when I look at the whole history of the World Bank and environment, I basically see it is not a one-way trajectory, and as forward or backward. I see it as more zigzag steps, some forward steps, some backward steps, some forward steps, some backward steps. So overall, because climate change is becoming one—it's about to become a major part of the Bank's mission and vision. So before it was shared prosperity and poverty reduction, and now it's going to—if it's all approved next week—it will be shared prosperity, poverty reduction, and a livable planet. So climate change is kind of moving the front row and center. And that will make it harder for the Bank to fund projects that can be criticized. It will make it much more important that it follows these solid environmental and social framework rules. So I think it's a move in the right direction. But as I mentioned earlier, we're still seeing criticism from NGO about things slipping through the cracks, like trade finance, right? Or another area that's weak is the World Bank—the IFC and the World Bank will sometimes lend money to financial intermediaries. So it's like—it's like lending money to a local bank that then lends it out for something else. And there's been less oversight about how that money is on lent, and whether that can go for something that's damaging to climate change or the environment. So they're moving in the right direction. I think there's been progress. I think there's been backward steps and forward steps over the whole arc of the World Bank's efforts in this area. And I think there's still going to be some criticism as they address some of these areas where there's slippage. FASKIANOS: Thank you. I'm going to take the next question, a raised hand from Sheri Fink. So, Sheri, if you can say who you are and accept the unmute prompt. Q: Oh, I'm sorry. I think I pressed the wrong button. I didn't mean to raise my hand. Sorry about that. FASKIANOS: OK. No problem. All right. I will take the next question from Eric Muddiman, master's student at Norman Paterson School of International Affairs in Ottawa, Canada: In terms of mobilizing more private capital and development, there has been discussion on MDBs' role in mitigating risk. Private sector are not allowed to invest in BB/BBB ZIP code investments from a regulatory perspective. Are there concrete proposals advancements in these discussions? GUTNER: Yes. Do I know what they all are? No. It's kind of a live discussion. And I know, in the new World Bank—the latest version of the evolution roadmap, there's talk about creating, like, a lab—an innovation lab, or a private sector lab, to try to do more. Some of the banks have hubs in some areas where they—areas in the developing world where they might have better access to private sector actors. And they're trying to engage with private sector actors in conferences and find ways of discussing project ideas. So that's not as concrete as you like, perhaps, but there are efforts to think about this. And there was a seminar at the spring meetings with private sector actors who are also saying that they felt they could do more to engage colleagues and find ways to bring the private sector and public sector together. So there are initiatives, seminars, hubs, labs. You know, all of this stuff is kind of lively and happening right now. And I do think it will be interesting to see what, if anything, catches on. Because, as I mentioned earlier, this discussion has been going on even before 2015, but the turning billions into trillions discussion. And it just hasn't worked out that well, because of these issues like risk, right? Private sector actors may not want to involve in countries where the risk is too great and where countries don't have capacity, where they have weaker capacity. So there are many challenges in this area. And just a variety of activities and ideas being put forward to try to respond. FASKIANOS: Thank you. Next, a raised hand for Walton Brown. You can accept the unmute. There you go, Walton. Q: So I too—I didn't intend to hit anything. I'm so sorry. FASKIANOS: OK. That's OK. GUTNER: You can still ask a question. (Laughter.) FASKIANOS: That's OK! You can still ask a—exactly, Tammi. We can—we can still—we love hearing from you all. So, all right. Well, we will continue on— Q: And my phone is troubled. FASKIANOS: Phone is troubled. (Laughs.) No problem. That's just fine. OK, so I'm going to go next to—let's see, we've got several who don't have affiliations, but let me go to Holley Hansen: A lot of previous questions have focused on the World Bank or IMF operations. But going back to your original remarks, there also been discussion on how internal rules and procedures, such as voting, leave stakeholders out of the decision-making process. What major suggested reforms to internal decision-making do you think are viable? And what are the pros and cons of changing those rules? GUTNER: Well, the voting is part of internal decision-making. So the voting is part of that. And the real issue has been, how can—well, one of the real issues is shouldn't China have a greater stake? Shouldn't China have a higher stake? Because China is now the number-three largest stakeholder in the World Bank and the IMF, after the U.S., number one, and Japan, number two. But its stake, at around 6 percent, is really less than it should be if you follow the kind of formula they use to calculate a state's economic strength. It's been calculated that really it should be more like 12 percent, right? So part of the discussion is how to give developing countries, and especially China, more weight in governance through the—through the voting share. And that's an ongoing discussion. Right now, in today's kind of more tense political—global political environment, it's hard to imagine the U.S. supporting something like that at this juncture of time, although there have been reports that the managing director of the IMF is open to it. So I think this is going to be one of the issues that is discussed in Marrakesh next week, what to do with these voting shares? But they do adjust them every so often. So China did move up from having a lower ranking to now being number three in the IMF and World Bank. So it does happen over time. Internal decision-making is a whole complicated other kind of issue. And these development banks, you know, they all face internal decision-making challenges. They all face kind of common tensions. So one of them is how you balance authority between the country—people who work in the country and people who work on sectoral issues. So how do you—who should—who should have more decision-making authority, the country level or the sector level? There are decision-making issues and tensions between the public sector lending arms of these development banks and the private sector lending arms, because they have different incentives and different goals. So there have been challenges inside these development banks with kind of internal silos and where power and authority should be held. And it's hard to come up with what the right answer is. You know, there are pros and cons to giving more power to the country or more power to the sector. And in fact, these banks restructure from time to time. And if you look at kind of the history of the restructuring of some of the major development banks, they sort of move back and forth between where they think authority should be located. So these issue—it's a whole other can of worms than voting power on the board of directors. But it's important, because it can affect their performance. It can affect their performance and their ability to function effectively. FASKIANOS: Thank you. I'm going to take the last question. We have several quick questions from Fordham again. Let's see. There you go. Q: OK, thank you. So in the worst case scenario that the U.S. and China engage in conflict in Taiwan, how would the World Bank respond to the economic shocks of this in geographically vulnerable neighboring countries, such as Vietnam, Laos, and the Philippines? GUTNER: That's a tough question. Thank you for ending this with a really tough question. We're not supposed to say I don't know. (Laughs.) We're supposed to have—that's a tough one, because, again, China is number three at the World Bank. So if China—couldn't—most of the time voting doesn't happen. Most of the time, it's consensus. So it's hard to predict. I mean, you'd have to unpack a lot of different things there. You'd have to unpack what kind of—what would the World Bank normally do? Would it normally—would it affect development lending to neighboring countries? I mean, it's interesting to look at the case of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and how—what the response to that has been, because Russia's a member of all these institutions too. But the development banks mostly froze lending to Russia. Also, the AIIB did, because it had to comply—to comply with these sanctions. So Russia lending has been frozen. And these institutions are all giving money to Ukraine to help Ukraine rebuild. So there is kind of a situation that can be—that can be used to compare, to kind of get ideas about what might happen, right? And even at the AIIB, Russia is number three largest shareholder in the AIIB. It's China, India, and Russia. And the AIIB immediately froze lending to Russia. So we could—we could kind of play out different scenarios, but there's a lot of unknowns in that case. And I do think looking at the response of MDBs to Russia's invasion of Ukraine could provide some useful lessons. FASKIANOS: Tammi, we are at the end of our time. And I apologize that we couldn't get to all the questions. I wonder if you could just take a minute. You were awarded a CFR Fellowship for Tenured International Relations Scholars, which allowed you to work—be placed in a government office. So if you could just take a minute to talk about that experience and encourage other professors to apply. The deadline's coming up. It's the end of October. So it just would be great for you to just give us your— GUTNER: Absolutely, yes. All the professors in the audience, please apply for this, because it's a special, invaluable experience. When you're—when you're studying something, and you have the opportunity to be an insider for a year, I can't even tell you how much you learn. I learned being—and it's a two-way street. They benefit from the expertise of the scholars who are coming in because we bring a different perspective. We bring different analytical and methodological tools. And I just can't tell you how much I learned that I could never find out as an outsider, including the IMF-World Bank orchestra, or the—(laughs)—yeah, actually, maybe some outsiders know that. But really, to open up the black box of an organization and see firsthand about how things work internally, what the culture's like, how things get done, what happens in the hallways. I mean, all that stuff, all of those kinds of details really enhanced my scholarship and shaped my research direction, working on these issues of collaboration, for example. So if any of you are considering applying, please feel free to get in touch with me if you have any questions about the fellowship. I'd be happy to discuss it with you. FASKIANOS: Thank you. Thank you for that, and for your amazing insights into these issues. And to all of you for your great questions. You can follow Dr. Gutner on X, the app formerly known as Twitter, at @TGutner. And for the students on this call, CFR has paid internships. So to learn more about the internships you can go to—and also the fellowships—you can go to CFR.org/careers. Follow us at @CFR_Academic, and visit CFR.org, ForeignAffairs.com, and ThinkGlobalHealth.org for research and analysis on global issues. And the next Academic Webinar will take place on Wednesday, October 11, at 1:00 p.m. (EDT). Landry Signé, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, will talk about Africa on the global stage. So, again, thank you to Tamar Gutner. And to all of you, have a great rest of your day. GUTNER: Thanks for having me. And thanks to everyone for attending. (END)
On this episode of The Global Exchange, Adriana Vega speaks to Anna Barrera, Jeanette Patell, and Sarah Goldfeder about digital trade in Canada. This episode is an extract from our Trade conference, which took place on March 29, 2023. It was made possible thanks to the support of our strategic sponsors Lockheed Martin Canada, General Dynamics, Davie Shipyard, and Pathways Alliance; our conference Bronze Sponsors UPS, Amazon, and Enbridge; as well as our organizing partner, the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University. Participants' Bios Anna Barrera is Director Public Affairs at UPS Canada – https://www.amchamcanada.ca/chapters/national-capital-chapter/directors/AnnaBarrera Jeanette Patell is the Head of Government Affairs & Public Policy for YouTube in Canada – https://nac-cna.ca/en/bio/jeanette-patell Sarah Goldfeder is the member of the public policy team at General Motors Canada and a CGAI fellow – https://www.cgai.ca/sarah_goldfeder Host bio: Adriana Vega is a CGAI fellow – https://www.cgai.ca/adriana_vega Recording Date: 29 March 2023. Give 'The Global Exchange' a review on Apple Podcast! Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on Linkedin. Head over to our website www.cgai.ca for more commentary. Produced by Charlotte Duval-Lantoine. Music credits to Drew Phillips.
From February 12, 2021: Lost in the shuffle of an impeachment trial here in the United States was big news from Canada last week. Canada's Minister of Public Safety added the Proud Boys to Canada's terror entity list. The listing might be in Canada, but the group had a role in the January 6 storming of the U.S. Capitol. The listing has all sorts of interesting legal and national security implications, so Jacob Schulz talked it through with two Canadian national security experts. Jessica Davis is a former senior strategic intelligence analyst with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service who is now the president of Insight Threat Intelligence and a PhD student at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University. And Leah West is an assistant professor of International Affairs at Carleton University and serves as counsel with Friedman Mansour LLP. They talked about right-wing extremism in Canada, what the consequences of the listing might be and what it reveals about the relationship between Canada and the United States.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Last week's exchange that saw each country expel a diplomat was called a "spat"—but really it was the latest volley in a low-heat diplomatic conflict that's been simmering for years. Every new twist, from takeovers to arrests, from allegations of election interference and threats of retaliation, only makes the next more likely.How did China and Canada end up here? What have we learned in the past few months about just what China is trying to do in this country? What steps has our government taken to protect our democracy from outside interference? And what should we expect if China decides to retaliate?GUEST: Stephanie Carvin, former national security analyst, Associate Professor at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, author of Stand on Guard: Reassessing threats to Canada's National Security
For the past month, headlines have been dominated by leaked CSIS documents, intelligence sources, fears of foreign interference in Canadian elections and the political fallout of all that. But most Canadians don't know much about how our intelligence community operates. Which agencies do what? Who do they report to? Who can access their information? Why would they release it to the press?Because this is already shaping up to be the political story of the year in Canada, we wanted to lay out the basics. Here's what you need to know to understand what matters and why.GUEST: Stephanie Carvin, former national security analyst, Associate Professor at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, author of Stand on Guard: Reassessing threats to Canada's National Security
It started with a suspected Chinese spy balloon, shot down by the American military off the coast of South Carolina after being tracked floating over the continent for at least 4 days. Since then, three more as-yet-unidentified objects have been blown out of the sky, one near the coast of Alaska, one in the northern Yukon Territory, and one over Lake Huron. At this point we can say with some certainty that the origin of these objects is terrestrial, and that's essentially it.It may take some time before the public gets definitive answers about what, exactly, is going on here, but the events have sparked renewed debate about NORAD, and Canada's ability to protect its airspace.So what types of risk could these aerial incursions pose to people on either side of the 49th parallel? Are these floating objects something new, or are we just noticing them more often now that we're on higher alert? GUEST: Stephanie Carvin, Associate Professor at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University and a former national security analyst with the government of Canada. Read her Newsweek article about the floating objects here.
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