The Fourcast

The World Cup has kicked off, with three red cards and a win for co-hosts Mexico while the USA face Paraguay later, but President Donald Trump is set not to attend America's opening game. Before a ball was even kicked, this tournament wasn't short of controversies, from strict border controls and eye-watering ticket prices to the prospect of two countries who are at war with each other playing a game of football. So, has the beautiful game's biggest tournament become impossible to separate from global politics? Is this simply the reality of staging a World Cup across borders in an increasingly divided world - or are the doubters right that this World Cup could be spoiled by the drama off the pitch?On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy was joined by our sports reporter Jordan Jarrett-Bryan, superfan Billy The Bee who is in Mexico right now and will head to America to follow England's games and journalist Marcela Mora y Araujo.

While Washington insists pressure is working and Tehran claims resilience; attacks have continued, oil markets are moving, and ships are passing through the Strait of Hormuz despite repeated warnings of disruption.In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban unpack why oil prices haven't exploded, whether Iran is losing one of its most powerful bargaining chips, and what the movement of ships in the Gulf tells us about what could happen next.And what does the resignation of UK Defence Secretary John Healey tell us about how the UK is preparing for a more unstable world?They're joined by Yael Selfin, Fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research and Chief Economist at KPMG, to ask whether markets are underestimating the risks - and what this could mean for fuel prices, inflation and the wider economy.

The family of Stephen Ogilvie, the victim of the Belfast stabbing, has called for calm and said they don't want the “terrible tragedy to be used to divide people or fuel hostility.”, as Sudanese national Hadi Alodid was charged with attempted murder, threats to kill an NHS radiographer and possession of a knife. Last night, violence spread across parts of Belfast, with police attacked, properties damaged and communities left on edge after a video of the attack was shared online. Politicians and police have pointed to the role of social media, misinformation and outside agitators. But what is really driving the disorder?On this episode of The Fourcast, Jackie Long explores what's happening in Northern Ireland, why immigration has become such a political flashpoint, and whether far-right voices are helping fuel tensions online.Jackie is joined by Allison Morris, Crime Correspondent at The Irish News, former Metropolitan Police officer Victor Olisa, and Robert Topinka, lecturer and researcher on far-right movements and online radicalisation.

The Nottingham attacks shocked Britain and raised urgent questions about mental health services, public safety and institutional accountability.In this special edition of The Fourcast, Jackie Long is joined by the families of those killed in the attacks, alongside mental health experts, campaigners and policymakers, to discuss the findings of the Nottingham Inquiry and what must change to prevent similar tragedies in the future.Emma Webber, mother of Barnaby Webber; Dr Sanjoy Kumar, father of Grace O'Malley-Kumar; and James Coates, son of Ian Coates, reflect on their fight for answers and accountability. They are joined by former Care Minister Norman Lamb, Professor at the Institute of Psychiatry at King's College London Dinesh Bhugra, and SANE Chief Executive Marjorie Wallace.Can lessons finally be learned from Nottingham? Has enough changed since the attacks? And how do we balance compassionate mental health care with public safety?Nottingham Police said they would consider any recommendations made. Nottingham Health Trust did not respond to a request for comment. The CPS said they were ‘fully engaging with the public inquiry'. During the inquiry, a representative from the University of Nottingham said that since Valdo Calocane had left the university, the university had “continued to refine and adapt its policies and processes, but any changes made have not been as a direct result of the attacks themselves.” The spokesperson added that: "The University does not take the view that any of the changes made would have had an impact on the devastating attacks which took place.” The Department of Health said that “whilst there has been significant investment in mental health services over the past ten years, demand has risen and outpaced the services available”, and acknowledged “a significant and ongoing rise in demand means there remains a substantial treatment gap”.

Donald Trump says he'd be “honoured” to meet the new supreme leader of Iran Mojtaba Khamenei as there's little sign of progress in peace talks between Tehran and Washington. So what do the people in Iran really feel about the US president, the war and their Islamic regime that has ruled for almost half a century? Krishnan Guru-Murthy has travelled to Iran, speaking to supporters of the regime and, in a rare interview, one of its most prominent critics.Sadegh Zibakalam is an Iranian academic and author who has spent years calling for reform of the Islamic Republic. He has been jailed, removed from university posts and banned from public speaking. In this episode of The Fourcast, he shares his views on Iran's leadership, its future, and its relationship with the West.

The death of Henry Novak has sparked more than just grief; it has ignited a fierce debate over the state of British policing and the "rage" currently gripping the nation. While the Prime Minister accuses Reform UK leader Nigel Farage of ignoring the Novak family's pleas for unity, Nigel Farage claims the incident is proof of "two-tier policing" - a justice system he argues treats people differently based on who they are.But is this a genuine case of systemic bias, or a tragic failure of training and human error in the heat of the moment? And as "identity politics" moves from university lecture halls into police training manuals, are we losing sight of the common ground needed to hold a diverse society together?On today's episode of The Fourcast, Ciaran Jenkins is joined by Sundar Katwala, Director of British Future, academic and author Lisa McKenzie, and former Policing Minister John Denham to ask: is Britain's policing truly broken, or is it simply a mirror reflecting our deepest national divisions?

Economic growth is at the centre of British politics once again. Tony Blair says Labour needs a new plan. Keir Starmer, Wes Streeting and Andy Burnham are all setting out competing visions for the country's future. But after years of promises about prosperity, innovation and renewal, why do so many people feel the economy is no longer working for them?In this episode of The Fourcast, Jackie Long speaks to economist Professor Mariana Mazzucato, whose ideas helped shape Labour's original pitch for power and whose new book, The Common Good Economy, argues that governments have lost sight of what the economy is actually for.They discuss whether markets should serve society rather than the other way around, who gets to define the “common good”, and whether mission-driven government can survive in an era of political instability, nationalism, trade wars and rapid technological change. They also explore Labour's record in government so far, Tony Blair's intervention in the party's future, the debate over net zero and growth, and whether AI could transform the economy as profoundly as the industrial revolution.

The ceasefire may be holding, but the indicators beneath the surface suggest the Middle East remains dangerously unstable.As internet access slowly returns in Iran and diplomatic channels reopen, questions are growing about whether the US, Iran and Israel are genuinely moving towards a deal, or simply regrouping before the next escalation. Donald Trump is pushing for a wider regional settlement built around the Abraham Accords, while Iran is demanding access to frozen assets and Israel continues strikes in Lebanon.In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Krishnan Guru-Murthy and Mark Urban examine the signals analysts are watching most closely: the nature of recent US and Iranian strikes, the strategic importance of Lebanon's ceasefire, and the growing pressure for political progress before the conflict spirals again.They're joined by Lina Khatib from Chatham House.

Sir Tony Blair has entered Labour's civil war - and his message is brutal: changing the leader means nothing if the party still has no real plan for Britain.In a sweeping essay, the former Prime Minister delivers a scathing critique of Keir Starmer's government and questions whether Labour has coherent answers on growth, tax, welfare, Brexit, net zero and Britain's place in the world. Blair argues the solution is a return to the “radical centre” - but what does that actually mean in 2026?In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy examines whether Labour's crisis is really about leadership at all. Would replacing Starmer with Wes Streeting or Andy Burnham solve anything? Should Labour move closer to Donald Trump or back towards Europe? And if the party forces a leadership contest now, does it risk opening the door to Nigel Farage and Reform UK?Joining Krishnan are former Tony Blair speechwriter Phil Collins and Labour MP Zubir Ahmed, a supporter of Wes Streeting who resigned from government earlier this month, and Stewart Wood who was an adviser to Gordon Brown when he was Prime Minister and Ed Miliband when he was Labour leader.

Donald Trump says Iran must choose between signing a deal or facing fresh US strikes - but despite the threats, no attacks have come. So is this another case of “TACO Trump”, or are we actually watching the outlines of a peace deal emerge behind the scenes?In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Krishnan Guru-Murthy and Mark Urban examine rising oil prices, shifting sanctions policy, and growing pressure from Gulf states desperate to avoid another escalation in the Strait of Hormuz.They discuss whether the US and UK are quietly easing pressure on Russian oil as energy markets tighten, what could happen to Iran's uranium stockpile under a deal, and whether Trump and Netanyahu are still truly aligned as tensions grow over Israel's conduct and strategy.

How bad is the economic hit from the Iran war going to be? If the talk around price caps on essential food items, and lifting sanctions on Russian oil and gas are anything to go by, then it could be very bad indeed. The government says any price freeze will be voluntary after supermarket bosses called the idea ‘preposterous' and ‘nonsense.' But plans to continue to allow diesel and jet fuel to be imported into the UK from Russian oil refined in other countries will go ahead. The Conservatives call this a ‘betrayal of Ukraine.' On this episode of the Fourcast, Jackie Long is joined by Channel 4 News' Economics Reporter Neil Macdonald, the economist Vicky Pryce and Tom Keatinge, the founding director at the Centre for Finance and Security at the think tank RUSI.

The World Health Organization has declared the latest Ebola outbreak an international emergency, as cases continue to rise in the Democratic Republic of Congo and neighbouring Uganda - including infections reported in the capital, Kampala.The current outbreak is being driven by the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, for which there are currently no approved vaccines or treatments. Fears are growing that this could escalate into a crisis on the scale of the devastating 2014 West Africa outbreak, which killed more than 11,000 people.In this episode of The Fourcast, we ask how serious the threat really is, whether the world is better prepared than it was a decade ago, and what lessons were learned from previous epidemics. Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Channel 4 News health editor Victoria MacDonald and Dr Oliver Johnson, who led an Ebola isolation unit in Sierra Leone during the 2014 outbreak.

What has Donald Trump got out of his two day trip to Beijing? There are some roses from the Chinese President Xi Jinping for the White House Rose Garden apparently. But a trade deal? An end to the war in Iran? The Strait of Hormuz reopened? That all seemed rather more elusive. And what about Xi Jinping?  Did he get to show that China is now America's equal on the global stage? Access to US tech and AI? Could he even have got the nod from Trump that Taiwan - and its threatened democracy - is now no longer a priority for the US? On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Channel 4 News foreign affairs expert Jonathan Rugman, and Hong Kong democracy activist Nathan Law, now living in exile in the UK and on a Chinese wanted list.

A leaked Pentagon assessment claims China is using the Iran war to strengthen its position against the United States economically, militarily and diplomatically, US media is reporting. Donald Trump is in Beijing for a summit with Xi Jinping, where the Chinese ruler has been warned that if the Taiwan issue is not handled carefully it could lead to a conflict between the super powers. On this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban are joined by China expert and contributing editor at the Times Cindy Yu to dissect it all.

The battle for Number 10 is on.After Angela Rayner announced HMRC had cleared her over the tax scandal that led to her resignation, attention quickly shifted to the growing leadership turmoil inside Labour. Following days of speculation, Wes Streeting announced his resignation from government but - so far - hasn't challenged  Keir Starmer for the leadershipIn this episode of The Fourcast, we examine the names circling the leadership race - from Andy Burnham and Ed Miliband to junior ministers preparing potential bids - and ask whether Labour is heading for a brutal internal war just as it tries to convince voters it's ready for power.Joining Krishnan Guru-Murthy are Senior Political Correspondent Paul Macnamara and Think Labour's Alison Phillips to discuss who's really plotting, who has momentum, and whether Starmer can survive the biggest challenge of his leadership so far.Recorded before Andy Burnham announced he would stand in Makerfield.

It's another febrile day in Westminster with Prime Minister Keir Starmer - for now - clinging on but he's far from safe as a succession of ministers have stepped down, with more expected to go. On top of that, the man who has become the PM's nemesis in the north, Andy Burnham, is apparently down in London. Shopping? Plotting? So it looks like Keir Starmer might just hit the current average tenure of British Prime Ministers - two years, but no more. Is this really the way to run a country in the middle of two wars and a cost-of-living crisis? And could anyone else really do any better? On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by the Liverpool Echo's Political Editor Liam Thorp, who has co-authored a book with Andy Burnham on how to transform the country, and the Observer columnist Will Hutton.

Keir Starmer survives the day -  but the pressure on his leadership is growing. Today, he attempted to shore up his position with a speech focused on his vision for Labour, saying his government must go beyond “incremental change” and be the party of a “stronger and fairer” Britain. But despite this, at least 55 Labour MPs have called on Starmer to set out a timetable for a leadership election to take place.And inside Labour, the conversation has already moved on to who would replace him and two names dominate - Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting. Burnham says he should never have been blocked from returning to Westminster, and Streeting is openly being discussed as a potential frontrunner. So with the party leadership in flux and the future of the Labour party once again up for debate - what happens now? In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to Starmer biographer Tom Baldwin and Guardian columnist Zoe Williams about what today's turmoil really means. Is Labour heading for a delayed but inevitable leadership contest, a Burnham ‘coronation', or a messy fight over the party's future?

Labour is reeling after bruising local election results - losing ground to the Greens on the left and Reform UK on the right - and questions are now swirling around Keir Starmer's leadership. Is this just a difficult moment for Labour, or the start of something much bigger?In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by former Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell, former Keir Starmer Chief of Staff Sam White, and political strategist Scarlett Maguire to unpack what the results really mean. Is Labour facing a voter backlash, a messaging problem, or a full-blown leadership crisis?And if pressure on Starmer continues to grow, what happens next? Could Labour really replace its leader - and who would even take over?

As Gulf leaders look to Beijing for guarantees Washington no longer seems able to give, China is suddenly at the centre of diplomacy around the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE's Mohammed bin Zayed and Iran's foreign minister both arrived in Beijing within days of each other, seeking a way out of a blockade that has choked shipping routes, pushed tankers around the Cape of Good Hope, and rattled global markets.So where does this leave Donald Trump's efforts to revive a deal that could reopen the Strait, and what does the collapse of Project Freedom reveal about America's standing with its allies in the Gulf and Europe?In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban are joined by former Senior Director at the US National Security Council during Donald Trump's first administration Fiona Hill to examine China's growing leverage over Iran, the Gulf states' deepening unease with Washington, and the diplomatic pressure building ahead of the delayed Trump-Xi summit.

It's the dirty secret at the heart of England's waterways. The water companies publicly insist they are cleaning up their act, but privately they have been allowed to avoid prosecution for years through a little-known mechanism which lets a company admit fault and pay money to a good cause instead of facing criminal charges. The Environment Agency says the payments are a “brilliant tool”, faster and simpler than taking a case through a lengthy court process. But Channel 4 News has uncovered how these payments have been used repeatedly by water companies accused of polluting rivers, allowing them to sidestep court, scrutiny, and conviction. Our investigation has also found that the Environment Agency has not completed a single prosecution of a water company for any pollution occurring in the last five years, despite almost two million sewage discharges. In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to Chief Correspondent Alex Thomson, who has been looking into this story, campaigner Fergal Sharkey, and whistleblower Robert Forrester, who has firsthand experience of how these cases are handled inside the system.

After a spate of attacks and foiled plots against British Jews since the the events of October 7th and the Iran war, including the stabbing of two men in Golders Green yesterday, many Jewish people say they do not feel safe in the UK any more. So, why have we seen this horrifying rise in attacks? And what can be done about it? On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy spoke to a range of guests  from across the legal, cultural and security landscape: journalist Hadley Freeman, British-Israeli analyst and author Daniel Levy and former counter terrorism chief Nick Aldworth.

As the UAE decides to leave the powerful OPEC oil cartel, Pakistan has opened itself as a land corridor that could help Iran get around the Strait of Hormuz blockade - so where do these developments leave Donald Trump's long term plans for the Iran war and the shape of the Middle East? In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators Matt Frei and Mark Urban delve into the latest developments in Washington and Tehran and look at how Hezbollah's new drone tactics could be forcing Israel to recalculate it's approach in Lebanon.

King Charles heads to Washington at a moment of extraordinary tension. The visit comes just days after an assassination attempt on President Donald Trump - and against the backdrop of a deepening war in Iran, strained UK-US relations, and growing questions about America's global role.In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy asks whether Britain's most powerful tool, soft power, can hold up in the face of Trump's unpredictable politics. From attacks on the UK Prime Minister and British troops, to disputes over sovereignty and trade, how should the King navigate a meeting with a president who thrives on disruption?Krishnan is joined by Julie Montagu, Countess of Sandwich, Liberal Democrat Europe spokesperson Al Pinkerton, and former UK ambassador to the US Sir David Manning to discuss what's at stake, and whether this royal visit can steady the so-called “special relationship,” or risk making things worse.

Donald Trump's ceasefire with Iran appears to be holding - or is it? Iran has reportedly seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz as America attacks tankers and boats linked to Tehran - and then there doesn't appear to be any hint of any imminent peace talks In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Krishnan Guru-Murthy and defence analyst Mark Urban discuss whether the Iran war has reached a stalemate and ask, with China watching, has this all fatally undermined US power on the world stage?They were also joined by economist Ann Pettifor who says a “global slump” is now inevitable - so how bad will it be?

Peter Mandelson's appointment as ambassador by Sir Keir Starmer to the US was a rush-job, carried out under an 'atmosphere of pressure' from 10 Downing Street and a 'dismissive attitude' to security vetting. That's the claim of Sir Olly Robbins, the sacked head of the foreign office as he was grilled by parliament's foreign affairs committee. So, is it now clear what happened behind the scenes? No 10 denies Robbins' characterisation of events, but could this still be damning for Starmer's premiership or has the PM's decision to sack his senior mandarin been vindicated?On this episode of the Fourcast, Paul McNamara was joined by Labour MP Preet Kour Gill and also by one of Olly Robbins predecessors as head of the foreign office Lord Ricketts and former Labour advisor and political commentator Sonia Sodha.

In a world facing overlapping crises - from Sudan, to Lebanon to the wider issues in the Middle East - the demand for humanitarian aid has never been greater. But as needs grow, the global response is struggling to keep up.In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to Tom Fletcher, the United Nations' Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, about the immense challenges of delivering life-saving support in today's fractured world. How does the UN prioritise when everything is urgent?With funding shortfalls, political barriers, and growing risks to civilians and aid workers, can the humanitarian system cope - and what happens if it can't?

Peter Mandelson, the problem that won't go away. Keir Starmer is once again fighting to save his political career, after saying he was not told Mandelson had failed security vetting ahead of his appointment as US ambassador.So what really happened? Is this a failure of leadership or does it point to a deeper rot inside Westminster? And either way, can Starmer survive it? On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy was joined by Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee and Conservative MP Alicia Kearns, former chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee. A Downing Street spokesman told Channel 4 News: “The Foreign Office have run this vetting process, and at no point, at any point in any part of this process was anyone in Number 10, PM or otherwise, informed by the Foreign Office that the recommendation of UK Security Vetting was for him not to pass his developed vetting.”

The ceasefire between the US and Iran is holding - for now. But beneath the surface, the signals tell a more uncertain story.In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei is joined by defence analyst Mark Urban and International Editor Lindsey Hilsum to examine the key signs shaping what happens next. From US military build-up in the region to Iran's strategic use of the Strait of Hormuz, the question is whether this fragile pause is the start of a settlement, or simply a prelude to further conflict.They explore the shifting balance of power, the role of regional players like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, and the growing pressure on Israel as the war's dynamics evolve. There is also a deeper question at play: what this conflict reveals about the limits of American power, and the future of global trade routes.

Donald Trump's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has come into force, but ships are reportedly still getting through, including a Chinese linked tanker. So, what is actually going on right now? How long could this blockade last and what happens if American forces try to seize a Chinese linked vessel? On this episode of the Fourcast, Alex Thomson is joined by retired US Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery and Times columnist and contributing editor Cindy Yu.

Hungary has woken up to a political earthquake. After more than a decade in power, Viktor Orbán has been defeated, with Péter Magyar securing a historic landslide victory in an election seen as a major test for democracy in Europe.It's a slap in the face for Donald Trump - after JD Vance called on Hungarians to support their incumbent leader. But did his attempt to raise support for Orban do the exact opposite?Could this mark a turning point not just for Hungary, but for Europe more broadly? And does this result signal a shift away from populist politics - or is the bigger story still to come?In this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Hungarian journalist and disinformation expert Szilárd Teczár and political analyst Mujtaba Rahman to unpack how this happened - and what it means for the future of Hungary - and Europe.

What is really going on in Lebanon? Less than 24 hours after Donald Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran, Israel launched a massive wave of airstrikes targeting Hezbollah across the country.Iran says Israel is violating the terms of the ceasefire - so could the peace talks set to be held tomorrow in Islamabad collapse before they've even started? And is this exactly what Israel wants? On this episode of the Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy was joined from Beirut by Lebanese journalist Rania Abouzeid and in London by Channel 4 News foreign correspondent Secunder Kermani, who's just returned from Lebanon.

It's uncertain whether the ceasefire Donald Trump brokered with Iran will hold after Israel launched a massive barrage of airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon leading Tehran to reclose the Strait of Hormuz. US vice president JD Vance, who is leading the US delegation to Islamabad in Pakistan, has acknowledged that the ceasefire is “fragile”. So is there any chance it could lead to a last peace? Is this a moment where a global economic crisis was averted at the last minute, or just postponed? On this episode of the Fourcast Indicators Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by defence and intelligence analyst Mark Urban and Channel 4 News Economics Editor Helia Ebrahimi.

Wireless Festival has been cancelled, following the government's decision to block Kanye West's permission to travel to the UK.  The American rapper, who's now known as Ye, was due to headline the festival in Finsbury Park in the summer. He has a long history of antisemitic comments and actions, including writing a song glorifying Adolf Hitler. Mr West has blamed this on a brain injury and missed Bi-polar diagnosis. He has apologised and says he has reached out to the Jewish community in the UK. On this episode of The Fourcast, Keme Nzerem is joined by Dr. Toby Greene from the Board of Deputies of British Jews and music journalist Yemi Abiade.

NASA's Artemis ll mission has blasted off to the moon - with the familiar rhetoric of exploration and human achievement. It's the first crewed voyage out of low earth orbit in more than half a century - but behind the celebration - another story is taking shape.The modern ‘space race' is a high-stakes contest for military, economic and technological dominance here on earth. A contest where whoever controls orbit, controls everything below. So what does Artemis tell us about this contest? About the collision of scientific aspiration, strategic military rivalry, and economic leverage? How are the world's governments, militaries and increasingly private companies shaping this orbital order? On the latest episode of The Fourcast, Keme Nzerem is joined by Libby Jackson, Head of Space at London's Science Museum, formerly head of space exploration at the UK Space Agency.And Gabriel Elefteriu, Senior Research Fellow in Space Power at the Council on Geostrategy. His work is on defence space policy, and the global space power balance.

Is President Trump on the cusp of pulling out of the Iran war or about to double down with boots on the ground? He's lashed out again at his Nato allies threatening to abandon the alliance, raising questions not only about the future of the war, but the future of Western security itself.On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei was joined by General Sir Patrick Sanders, who has had a 40 year career in the British Army and rose to Chief of the General staff in 2022, before retiring two years later. He has spent his career thinking about the hard realities of modern conflict, the limits of Western military power and what happens when the United States wavers. Sir Patrick is now the host of ‘The General and the Journalist' podcast.

Donald Trump has told the UK to “go and get your own oil” from the Strait of Hormuz as Iran continues to block the crucial energy chokepoint and as reports circulate that the UK is to receive its last tanker of jet fuel from the Middle East this week. So what are the real risks to the UK economy, energy security, and global position as this conflict rumbles on?On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei speaks to the CEO of energy consultancy firm Qamar Energy Robin Mills and money journalist and former Sunday Times deputy money editor Holly Mead.

Welcome to Fourcast Indicators on the Iran War with Matt Frei and defence and intelligence analyst Mark Urban. Fourcast Indicators looks at the signals that analysts watch most closely - the tell-tale signs that suggest imminent and significant change may be coming. This week we take a deep dive into the intelligence, military logistics, and the geopolitical fallout of the bombardment of Iran. We explore Donald Trump's domestic political struggles and the nervous reactions of the global markets. We also tackle the biggest strategic question of all: where is Iran's 440kg of enriched uranium and were they really just two weeks away from a nuclear bomb?

Social media giants Meta and Google have been found liable for building platforms that are addictive and a court has ordered them to pay millions in damages, but both firms say the case oversimplifies a complex issue and are expected to appeal the ruling.In this episode of The Fourcast, we break down the case and what it could mean for the future of Big Tech. Is this a genuine turning point - a potential “Big Tobacco moment” for Silicon Valley - or just another legal challenge that tech giants will fight and ultimately move past?Ciaran Jenkins was joined by tech journalist Chris Stokel-Walker and former Twitter head of news and journalism partnerships Vivianne Schiller.

President Trump is talking about deals to end the war with Iran, but Tehran says it's “fake news” as they continue to exchange attacks with Israel.So where does this war go from here, and what does an endgame actually look like?On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei was joined by Dr Siavush Randjbar-Daemi, associate professor Modern Middle Eastern History at the University of St Andrews and retired US Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery.

Is Donald Trump backing down from a potential strike on Iran - or is this a strategic pivot? In this episode of the Fourcast, we unpack the latest twists in US-Iran tensions as Trump insists talks are “good and productive,” despite Tehran claiming a firm warning forced a retreat. With the Strait of Hormuz at the centre of the crisis and global markets reacting fast, the stakes couldn't be higher.

Are American boots on the ground inevitable in Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu's war with Iran? With reports that over 2,000 Marines are being deployed, questions are growing over Washington's strategy and whether the president has a clear plan. Could the US attempt something as bold as seizing Kharg Island, Iran's critical oil hub?On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Nate Swanson, former National Security Council Iran desk official, and investigative journalist Ronen Bergman to unpack the latest developments and what comes next.

Saudi Arabia is warning it may retaliate against Iran after fresh threats to oil and gas infrastructure as Donald Trump's administration desperately tries to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. With strikes hitting key energy facilities across the Gulf, this conflict is no longer just military - it's an economic war with global consequences.So how far could this escalate? And what does it mean for energy prices, inflation and the world economy?On this episode of The Fourcast Matt Frei is joined by The Economists defence editor Shashank Joshi and Channel 4 News' economics editor Helia Ebrahimi.

18 days into a war that has reshaped the Middle East, the question that matters most is also the hardest to answer: who is actually winning. Washington says Iran is collapsing under the weight of thousands of strikes. Tehran claims it is bleeding its enemies and outlasting them. Oil prices are surging, missiles are still flying and the region is on edge.In today's episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is in Israel and he speaks to two people who understand this conflict from the inside out. Emile Hokayem, an analyst of regional security and military power. And Muhanad Seloom, a leading expert on Gulf politics and Iran's security networks.

Across the battlefields of Ukraine, Gaza and now Iran, artificial intelligence is reshaping how wars are fought.AI is helping militaries process intelligence, identify targets and make decisions at a rapidly accelerating pace. Some believe this is the beginning of an AI revolution in warfare - one that could eventually lead to autonomous weapons and algorithmic battlefields. So how far has this transformation already gone? Is Iran the first AI war and is the world ready for what's coming? On this episode of The Fourcast, Ciaran Jenkins is joined by Emelia Probasco, who was a Navy officer, later worked in the Pentagon and is now a senior fellow at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology, and Arthur Holland Michel, an AI researcher and journalist.

The conflict in Iran is entering its second week, and the shockwaves are rippling across the globe - through global markets, shipping routes and regional security alliances. In the past 24 hours, multiple ships have been hit in the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade route effectively closed by Iran, and now the Iranian regime has said the country's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, was “lightly injured” after an Israeli airstrike.In today's episode of The Fourcast, British‑Iranian comedian and cultural commentator Omid Djalili joins Krishnan Guru‑Murthy to explain why he believes that attacks by Trump and Israel on Iran could ultimately benefit the Iranian people if the Islamic Republic is removed.

The war in Iran is already sending shockwaves far beyond the battlefield. Stock markets are sinking, Brent crude has jumped above $100  a barrel, and G7 governments are considering tapping emergency reserves to steady the markets. Missiles landing close to critical Gulf energy infrastructure have sharpened fears that what began as a regional confrontation could tip the global economy into something far more dangerous.The real question is whether this crisis can be contained, and if not, how vulnerable our economies really are - how fast could the world's energy system start to break apart, and who would feel the pain first?In today's episode of the Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Guy Laron, author of Oil Wars: The Struggle for Control That Has Shaped the Modern World and Bernard Haykel, Professor of Near Eastern Studies.

It's seven days since America and Israel launched a war against Iran - the Middle East is on fire, the Qataris are warning of a global economic disaster and Donald Trump's White House is pumping out propaganda clips of their airstrikes spliced with Hollywood memes. So what kind of world do we now live in? And what could come next? On the latest episode of The Fourcast Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by General Sir Richard Shirreff, Nato's former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Chimène Keitner, who was a legal advisor in Obama and Trump's administrations, and former CIA analyst Fred Fleitz, who worked in the National Security Council in Trump's first administration and is now vice-chairman of the America First Policy Institute.

The war in the Middle East is rapidly expanding. Azerbaijan is now the latest country reportedly hit by Iranian drones while another missile barrage struck Tehran and Beirut overnight. The seas aren't immune either: Iranian warships have been sunk, and a US oil tanker is reportedly on fire in the Gulf.Now there are signs a land war could be beginning, with reports Kurdish fighters may have crossed into Iran - though commanders deny it, saying they would need US air cover first.So can anything stop this bloody conflict from spiraling out of control?On this episode of the Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to Channel 4 News correspondents at the heart of the story: Foreign Affairs Correspondent Secunder Kermani in Tel Aviv, International Editor Lindsey Hilsum in Beirut, and US Editor Anushka Asthana in Washington.

The war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran has already rattled the global economy. Gas prices have jumped 30% to a three-year high, oil is surging, tankers are stuck in the Strait of Hormuz and refineries across the region are under attack. Stock markets from London to Tokyo are tumbling, and hopes of interest rate cuts in the UK and US are fading fast.So how serious is this economic shock? What happens if the conflict lasts weeks, as Donald Trump has suggested? And is Rachel Reeves's newly claimed fiscal headroom about to disappear as energy prices spike?Matt Frei speaks to our economics correspondent Helia Ebrahimi, and to Dr Neil Quilliam, a leading Middle East energy policy and geopolitics specialist at Chatham House. They explain how this war is reverberating through global markets, the risks to supply routes, the inflation threat, and how governments and central banks might respond.

The crisis in the Middle East is deepening by the day. The killing of Iran's Supreme Leader has triggered a regional shockwave, from missile launches to unrest in neighbouring states. But what does this moment really reveal about the Iranian state, its capacity for survival, and the calculations being made in Washington, Jerusalem, and Tehran?In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to journalist Anshel Pfeffer and peace advocate Sanam Naraghi-Anderlini about the limits of decapitation strategy, why Western governments have so often misread the Islamic Republic, and the competing endgames now in play.

'Something massive is happening.' The words of the Green Party's new MP Hannah Spencer after her decisive win in the Gorton and Denton by-election. Is she right? Labour came a distant third and neither the Conservatives nor the Liberal Democrats managed to get even two percent of the vote. Arguably none of that was unexpected. But Reform UK, up until now seen as the populist insurgents ready to replace the mainstream parties, fell short by over 4000 votes. Not nearly the knife-edge result predicted. So is Nigel Farage in danger of running out of steam after diluting his party with Tory defectors? Could the Greens offer white working class voters a left alternative to kick the establishment? And is Labour going to have to move left, whether to take on the Green threat or their unhappy backbenchers?On this episode of the Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to Zack Polanski after his win, and is joined by the ex-Tory now Reform commentator Tim Montgomerie, Sam White, who is a former Chief of Staff to Keir Starmer, and Natalie Bennett, one of two Greens peers in the House of Lords.