American economist
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Many Western countries, most notably the US, had a major decline in their crime rate in the 1990s. About 20 years earlier, the US had banned the use of lead in gasoline. Perhaps you wouldn't think those two facts are related - but many researchers think this wasn't a coincidence.After getting distracted and doing a whole episode on lead and IQ a couple of weeks ago, Tom and Stuart get to the subject they intended to cover: the lead-crime hypothesis. How strong is the evidence that the presence of lead in a child's early environment increases their propensity for crime when they grow up? And how strong is the evidence that lead removal (at least partly) caused the declining crime rate?The Studies Show is brought to you by Works in Progress, the magazine full of new and underrated ideas for advancing science, technology, and humanity. They have a new issue out right now, which opens with a fascinating essay on the decline of drink-driving. Check it out at worksinprogress.co. Show notes* Numbers on the US crime rate over time* Evidence from Finland on IQ and crime* The first study (to our knowledge) on the lead-crime hypothesis, from 2007* Rob Verbruggen's 2021 Manhattan Institute report on lead and crime* Jennifer Doleac's 2021 Niskanen Center report on lead and crime* Paper focusing on 1920s/30s America and the impact of lead on crime* 2020 Swedish paper on moss lead levels and crime* 2021 PNAS paper on lead and personality change* 2022 meta-analysis on the lead-crime hypothesis* 2023 systematic review on the same topicCreditsThe Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thestudiesshowpod.com/subscribe
Jennifer Doleac is Executive Vice President of Criminal Justice at Arnold Ventures, a major funder of criminal justice research and reform in the United States. She joins to discuss trends in crime, causes and deterents of crime, and cheap or easy ways we can make the country safer. Support the show! www.patreon.com/andrewheaton.
Hidden Killers With Tony Brueski | True Crime News & Commentary
A recent study by Vivint, a smart home company, has shed light on a concerning trend in the United States: a surge in various types of crimes following the end of daylight saving time (DST). Based on FBI data recorded between 2017 and 2021, the study reveals alarming statistics and suggests potential solutions to address the issue. The study's findings indicate a consistent increase in both the percentage and total number of crimes committed in the weeks following the transition from DST. Notably, robberies saw a staggering 64.4% spike in likelihood, while vehicle thefts followed closely with a 61% increase in probability. The raw rise in robberies amounted to a startling 81%. Break-ins also witnessed a 16% surge during this period. However, homes equipped with security systems experienced significantly fewer burglaries compared to unprotected residences. These findings align with previous research that suggests maintaining daylight saving time throughout the year could reduce specific crimes, especially robberies, by extending evening daylight hours. A 2015 study by the Brookings Institution revealed that eliminating the practice of "falling back" could potentially reduce robberies by 27%, as criminals are less likely to strike in well-lit environments. Furthermore, a 2012 study by Jennifer Doleac and Nicholas Sanders found that robberies, murders, and rapes all decreased following the "spring forward" transition, emphasizing the importance of adequate daylight in crime deterrence. Joseph Giacalone, a retired NYPD sergeant and professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, commented on the study's implications, saying, "Most crimes happen under the cover of darkness, that's why things like broad daylight shootings are so shocking to the public." He also noted that many burglaries occur when people leave their homes for work or school, often in the morning when it is still dark after turning the clocks back. To address the increased crime risk after DST ends, the Vivint team recommends taking proactive security measures, including installing exterior lighting, ensuring windows and doors are locked, and closing curtains and blinds at night. The issue of biannual clock changes has also gained attention in the U.S. Senate, where the Sunshine Protection Act was introduced last year. The proposed legislation aims to eliminate the need to "fall back" every November and make daylight saving time permanent. Senator Marco Rubio, who introduced the bill, described the practice of changing clocks as "obsolete, confusing, and unhealthy." Senator Rubio cited the Brookings Institution's research on robberies and argued that year-round daylight saving time would not only reduce crime but also lower car accidents, boost the economy, and mitigate seasonal depression and other illnesses. "We feel safer when we're walking in the daylight, and it's easy to imagine why light might have a deterrent effect on crime: offenders know they're more likely to be recognized and get caught if they're fully visible," the Brookings researchers noted. Despite the potential benefits, the House of Representatives has yet to pass the Sunshine Protection Act. Senator Rubio remains optimistic, stating, "This Congress, I hope that we can finally get this done." As clocks officially turned back at 2 a.m. on Sunday, concerns about the consequences of falling back have again come to the forefront of public discourse. The study by Vivint serves as a stark reminder of the need to address the impact of daylight-saving time transitions on crime rates in the United States. Want to listen to ALL of our podcasts AD-FREE? Subscribe through APPLE PODCASTS, and try it for three days free: https://tinyurl.com/ycw626tj Follow Our Other Cases: https://www.truecrimetodaypod.com The latest on Catching the Long Island Serial Killer, Awaiting Admission: BTK's Unconfessed Crimes, Delphi Murders: Inside the Crime, Chad & Lori Daybell, The Murder of Ana Walshe, Alex Murdaugh, Bryan Kohberger, Lucy Letby, Kouri Richins, Malevolent Mormon Mommys, Justice for Harmony Montgomery, The Murder of Stephen Smith, The Murder of Madeline Kingsbury, and much more! Listen at https://www.truecrimetodaypod.com
A recent study by Vivint, a smart home company, has shed light on a concerning trend in the United States: a surge in various types of crimes following the end of daylight saving time (DST). Based on FBI data recorded between 2017 and 2021, the study reveals alarming statistics and suggests potential solutions to address the issue. The study's findings indicate a consistent increase in both the percentage and total number of crimes committed in the weeks following the transition from DST. Notably, robberies saw a staggering 64.4% spike in likelihood, while vehicle thefts followed closely with a 61% increase in probability. The raw rise in robberies amounted to a startling 81%. Break-ins also witnessed a 16% surge during this period. However, homes equipped with security systems experienced significantly fewer burglaries compared to unprotected residences. These findings align with previous research that suggests maintaining daylight saving time throughout the year could reduce specific crimes, especially robberies, by extending evening daylight hours. A 2015 study by the Brookings Institution revealed that eliminating the practice of "falling back" could potentially reduce robberies by 27%, as criminals are less likely to strike in well-lit environments. Furthermore, a 2012 study by Jennifer Doleac and Nicholas Sanders found that robberies, murders, and rapes all decreased following the "spring forward" transition, emphasizing the importance of adequate daylight in crime deterrence. Joseph Giacalone, a retired NYPD sergeant and professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, commented on the study's implications, saying, "Most crimes happen under the cover of darkness, that's why things like broad daylight shootings are so shocking to the public." He also noted that many burglaries occur when people leave their homes for work or school, often in the morning when it is still dark after turning the clocks back. To address the increased crime risk after DST ends, the Vivint team recommends taking proactive security measures, including installing exterior lighting, ensuring windows and doors are locked, and closing curtains and blinds at night. The issue of biannual clock changes has also gained attention in the U.S. Senate, where the Sunshine Protection Act was introduced last year. The proposed legislation aims to eliminate the need to "fall back" every November and make daylight saving time permanent. Senator Marco Rubio, who introduced the bill, described the practice of changing clocks as "obsolete, confusing, and unhealthy." Senator Rubio cited the Brookings Institution's research on robberies and argued that year-round daylight saving time would not only reduce crime but also lower car accidents, boost the economy, and mitigate seasonal depression and other illnesses. "We feel safer when we're walking in the daylight, and it's easy to imagine why light might have a deterrent effect on crime: offenders know they're more likely to be recognized and get caught if they're fully visible," the Brookings researchers noted. Despite the potential benefits, the House of Representatives has yet to pass the Sunshine Protection Act. Senator Rubio remains optimistic, stating, "This Congress, I hope that we can finally get this done." As clocks officially turned back at 2 a.m. on Sunday, concerns about the consequences of falling back have again come to the forefront of public discourse. The study by Vivint serves as a stark reminder of the need to address the impact of daylight-saving time transitions on crime rates in the United States. Want to listen to ALL of our podcasts AD-FREE? Subscribe through APPLE PODCASTS, and try it for three days free: https://tinyurl.com/ycw626tj Follow Our Other Cases: https://www.truecrimetodaypod.com The latest on Catching the Long Island Serial Killer, Awaiting Admission: BTK's Unconfessed Crimes, Delphi Murders: Inside the Crime, Chad & Lori Daybell, The Murder of Ana Walshe, Alex Murdaugh, Bryan Kohberger, Lucy Letby, Kouri Richins, Malevolent Mormon Mommys, Justice for Harmony Montgomery, The Murder of Stephen Smith, The Murder of Madeline Kingsbury, and much more! Listen at https://www.truecrimetodaypod.com
A recent study by Vivint, a smart home company, has shed light on a concerning trend in the United States: a surge in various types of crimes following the end of daylight saving time (DST). Based on FBI data recorded between 2017 and 2021, the study reveals alarming statistics and suggests potential solutions to address the issue. The study's findings indicate a consistent increase in both the percentage and total number of crimes committed in the weeks following the transition from DST. Notably, robberies saw a staggering 64.4% spike in likelihood, while vehicle thefts followed closely with a 61% increase in probability. The raw rise in robberies amounted to a startling 81%. Break-ins also witnessed a 16% surge during this period. However, homes equipped with security systems experienced significantly fewer burglaries compared to unprotected residences. These findings align with previous research that suggests maintaining daylight saving time throughout the year could reduce specific crimes, especially robberies, by extending evening daylight hours. A 2015 study by the Brookings Institution revealed that eliminating the practice of "falling back" could potentially reduce robberies by 27%, as criminals are less likely to strike in well-lit environments. Furthermore, a 2012 study by Jennifer Doleac and Nicholas Sanders found that robberies, murders, and rapes all decreased following the "spring forward" transition, emphasizing the importance of adequate daylight in crime deterrence. Joseph Giacalone, a retired NYPD sergeant and professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, commented on the study's implications, saying, "Most crimes happen under the cover of darkness, that's why things like broad daylight shootings are so shocking to the public." He also noted that many burglaries occur when people leave their homes for work or school, often in the morning when it is still dark after turning the clocks back. To address the increased crime risk after DST ends, the Vivint team recommends taking proactive security measures, including installing exterior lighting, ensuring windows and doors are locked, and closing curtains and blinds at night. The issue of biannual clock changes has also gained attention in the U.S. Senate, where the Sunshine Protection Act was introduced last year. The proposed legislation aims to eliminate the need to "fall back" every November and make daylight saving time permanent. Senator Marco Rubio, who introduced the bill, described the practice of changing clocks as "obsolete, confusing, and unhealthy." Senator Rubio cited the Brookings Institution's research on robberies and argued that year-round daylight saving time would not only reduce crime but also lower car accidents, boost the economy, and mitigate seasonal depression and other illnesses. "We feel safer when we're walking in the daylight, and it's easy to imagine why light might have a deterrent effect on crime: offenders know they're more likely to be recognized and get caught if they're fully visible," the Brookings researchers noted. Despite the potential benefits, the House of Representatives has yet to pass the Sunshine Protection Act. Senator Rubio remains optimistic, stating, "This Congress, I hope that we can finally get this done." As clocks officially turned back at 2 a.m. on Sunday, concerns about the consequences of falling back have again come to the forefront of public discourse. The study by Vivint serves as a stark reminder of the need to address the impact of daylight-saving time transitions on crime rates in the United States. Want to listen to ALL of our podcasts AD-FREE? Subscribe through APPLE PODCASTS, and try it for three days free: https://tinyurl.com/ycw626tj Follow Our Other Cases: https://www.truecrimetodaypod.com The latest on Catching the Long Island Serial Killer, Awaiting Admission: BTK's Unconfessed Crimes, Delphi Murders: Inside the Crime, Chad & Lori Daybell, The Murder of Ana Walshe, Alex Murdaugh, Bryan Kohberger, Lucy Letby, Kouri Richins, Malevolent Mormon Mommys, Justice for Harmony Montgomery, The Murder of Stephen Smith, The Murder of Madeline Kingsbury, and much more! Listen at https://www.truecrimetodaypod.com
Allison Stashko talks about prosecutor elections and police accountability. “Prosecutor Elections and Police Killings” by Allison Stashko and Haritz Garro. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Collective Bargaining Rights and Police Misconduct: Evidence from Florida” by Dhammika Dharmapala, Richard H. McAdams, and John Rappaport. “Preventing the Use of Deadly Force: The Relationship Between Police Agency Policies and Rates of Officer-Involved Gun Deaths” by Jay T. Jennings and Meghan E. Rubado. “Misdemeanor Prosecution” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, and Anna Harvey. “Prosecutorial Reforms and Local Crime Rates” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, and Anna Harvey. “Too Tough on Crime? The Impact of Prosecutor Politics on Incarceration” by Ashna Arora. “The Effect of DA Elections on Public Safety” by Dvir Yogev. [Working Paper available from the author]. “Does Prosecutor Partisanship Exacerbate the Racial Charging Gap? Evidence from District Attorneys in Three States” by Sidak Yntiso.
Economist and Arnold Ventures' incoming Exec. Vice President of Criminal Justice Policy, Jennifer Doleac, and Ja'Ron Smith, Partner with Dentons Global Advisors and fmr. Deputy Asst. to the President for Domestic Policy, join Governors Bredesen and Haslam to explore strategies to reduce and deter crime.
A historic marker for Elizabeth Gurley Flynn has been removed because she was a little too communist for everyone in New Hampshire's liking. Plus, the U.S. doesn't want Putin to escalate in Ukraine, but he's all out of escalation gambits ... except the big one. And the return of economist and criminal justice expert Jennifer Doleac, host of the Probable Causation podcast. Produced by Joel Patterson and Corey Wara Email us at thegist@mikepesca.com To advertise on the show, visit: https://advertisecast.com/TheGist Subscribe to The Gist Subscribe: https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/ Follow Mikes Substack at: Pesca Profundities | Mike Pesca | Substack Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Jennifer Doleac studies the economics of crime and discrimination. In July 2023, Jenn will join Arnold Ventures as the Executive Vice President of Criminal Justice. We chat about trends and causes of crime. How guns, drugs and policing interact with crime trends. …there was this huge increase in violent crime in particular in the late early eighties, early nineties. And suddenly violent crime started falling dramatically in the mid-1990s. We still aren't entirely sure why that is the case, this big mystery in the economics of crime world. But we do know that basically crime has been falling since then until very recently. So during the pandemic and since the pandemic, we've seen this big uptick in homicide and shootings, at least in the US. Again, we're not entirely sure why that change. It's kind of like trying to describe what's going on in the stock market. There are lots of sort of little blips and everything, and you can have big picture understanding of the economy and what drives growth, but not be able to predict fluctuations in the stock market. So it's similar with crime rates But overall, we're still in a place where homicide rates and violent crime rates are much lower than they were in the early to mid-nineties. So overall things have gotten much safer, especially in our big cities; we're much safer. But of course, as you said, there's a lot of variation place to place; particular neighborhoods, particular communities, they're the brunt of a lot of violent crime that is still going on. So it's a major public safety or major public problem and concern for policymakers in particular places and that has become more of a focus in recent years as homicides and shootings have gone up, which of course we're not used to after this big decline for decades... We talk about what we know of policies that work on reducing crime, and how challenging the recent uptick in crime statistics is to ideas on reforming criminal justice. We discuss alternatives to jail, and what type of interventions can work on crime, such as sentencing for misdemeanors, and access to healthcare. Jenn explains why the “broken window” theory of crime has not really held up. The mixed studies on body cameras and how deterrents (like DNA databases and CCTV) seem to work. Jenn discusses her work suggesting some policies have had unintended consequences related to “ban the box” (where employers are not allowed to know of former convictions on initial job application), and related to her paper on the Moral Hazard of Lifesaving Innovations: Naloxone Access and Opioid Abuse (which has proved controversial in some quarters). We play overrated/underrated on: Texas, diversity and universal basic income. We end on Jenn's current projects and life advice. Transcript and video are here: https://www.thendobetter.com/arts/2023/5/8/jennifer-doleac-crime-policing-policy-podcast Jenn also hosts her own podcast: Probable Causation, a podcast about law, economics, and crime.
Allison Harris talks about increasing the civic engagement of people with felony convictions. "Registering Returning Citizens to Vote” by Jennifer Doleac, Laurel Eckhouse, Eric Foster-Moore, Allison Harris, Hannah Walker, and Ariel White. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Can Incarcerated Felons be (Re)integrated into the Political System? Results from a Field Experiment” by Alan S. Gerber, Gregory A. Huber, Marc Meredith, Daniel R. Bigger, and David J. Hendry. “The Politics of the Restoration of Ex-felon Voting Rights: The Case of Iowa” by Marc Meredith and Michael Morse. “Using Causal Forests to Predict Treatment Heterogeneity: An Application to Summer Jobs” by Jonathan David and Sara B. Heller. "Estimation and Inference of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Random Forests" by Stefan Wager and Susan Athey. “Civic Responses to Police Violence” by Desmond And and John Tebes. [Working Paper]. “Mobilized by Injustice: Criminal Justice Contact, Political Participation, and Race” by Hannah L. Walker. Bonus Episode 10 of Probable Causation: Hannah Walker.
Rebroadcast: this episode was originally released in July 2020. Today's guest, Jennifer Doleac — Associate Professor of Economics at Texas A&M University, and Director of the Justice Tech Lab — is an expert on empirical research into policing, law and incarceration. In this extensive interview, she highlights three ways to effectively prevent crime that don't require police or prisons and the human toll they bring with them: better street lighting, cognitive behavioral therapy, and lead reduction. One of Jennifer's papers used switches into and out of daylight saving time as a 'natural experiment' to measure the effect of light levels on crime. One day the sun sets at 5pm; the next day it sets at 6pm. When that evening hour is dark instead of light, robberies during it roughly double. Links to sources for the claims in these show notes, other resources to learn more, the full blog post, and a full transcript. The idea here is that if you try to rob someone in broad daylight, they might see you coming, and witnesses might later be able to identify you. You're just more likely to get caught. You might think: "Well, people will just commit crime in the morning instead". But it looks like criminals aren't early risers, and that doesn't happen. On her unusually rigorous podcast Probable Causation, Jennifer spoke to one of the authors of a related study, in which very bright streetlights were randomly added to some public housing complexes but not others. They found the lights reduced outdoor night-time crime by 36%, at little cost. The next best thing to sun-light is human-light, so just installing more streetlights might be one of the easiest ways to cut crime, without having to hassle or punish anyone. The second approach is cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), in which you're taught to slow down your decision-making, and think through your assumptions before acting. There was a randomised controlled trial done in schools, as well as juvenile detention facilities in Chicago, where the kids assigned to get CBT were followed over time and compared with those who were not assigned to receive CBT. They found the CBT course reduced rearrest rates by a third, and lowered the likelihood of a child returning to a juvenile detention facility by 20%. Jennifer says that the program isn't that expensive, and the benefits are massive. Everyone would probably benefit from being able to talk through their problems but the gains are especially large for people who've grown up with the trauma of violence in their lives. Finally, Jennifer thinks that reducing lead levels might be the best buy of all in crime prevention. There is really compelling evidence that lead not only increases crime, but also dramatically reduces educational outcomes. In today's conversation, Rob and Jennifer also cover, among many other things: • Misconduct, hiring practices and accountability among US police • Procedural justice training • Overrated policy ideas • Policies to try to reduce racial discrimination • The effects of DNA databases • Diversity in economics • The quality of social science research Get this episode by subscribing: type 80,000 Hours into your podcasting app. Producer: Keiran Harris. Audio mastering: Ben Cordell. Transcript for this episode: Zakee Ulhaq.
Is Italy returning to fascism? Are we closer to a cure for cancer? And why is the violent crime rate climbing in the US? Economist Jennifer Doleac talks us though her research on the economics of crime and discrimination. What Could Go Right? is produced by The Progress Network and The Podglomerate.
Episode Notes The opioid epidemic has been raging on for years, and we've lost hundreds of thousands of lives to overdoses. Naloxone aka Narcan is a life-saving opioid overdose reversal drug, but is it actually helping or is it doing more harm than good? In this episode, we chat with Jennifer Doleac about her research into the effects Narcan has had on the opioid epidemic Follow Jennifer on Twitter @jenniferdoleac Visit JenniferDoleac.com Check out her research here Listen to the Probable Causation podcast Become a paid Substack subscriber at TheRewiredSoul.Substack.com and get early access to episodes! Get your free books by Chris here: https://bit.ly/3vkRsb6 Follow @TheRewiredSoul on Twitter and Instagram Subscribe to The Rewired Soul Substack Support The Rewired Soul: Get books by Chris Try BetterHelp Online Therapy (affiliate)
Panka Bencsik talks about a Chicago diversion program for drug possession arrests. “Policing Substance Use: Chicago's Treatment Program for Narcotics Arrests” by Ashna Arora and Panka Bencsik. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Misdemeanor Prosecution” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, & Anna Harvey. Episode 51 of Probable Causation: Amanda Agan & Anna Harvey. “Diversion in the Criminal Justice System” by Michael Mueller-Smith & Kevin Schnepel. Episode 5 of Probable Causation: Kevin Schnepel. “Do Police Make Too Many Arrests? The Effect of Enforcement Pullbacks on Crime” by Sungwoo Cho, Felipe Goncalves, and Emily Weisburst. Episode 65 of Probable Causation: Felipe Goncalves. “Seattle's Law Enforcement Assisted Diversion (LEAD): Program Effects on Criminal Justice and Legal System Utilization and Costs” by Susan E. Collins, Heather S. Lonczak, & Seema L. Clifasefi. “Local Access to Mental Healthcare and Crime” by Monica Deza, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and Keisha Solomon. “Reducing Re-arrests through Light Touch Mental Health Outreach” by Mary Kate Batistich, William N. Evans, and David C. Phillips. Episode 67 of Probable Causation: David Phillips. “Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome. Episode 60 of Probable Causation: Elisa Jácome.
Matt Kahn and Matt McComas - Unlocking the Potential of Post-Industrial Cities Matt Kahn, Provost Professor of Economics at the University of Southern California, and Mac McComas, senior program manager at John Hopkins' 21st Century Cities Initiative, joins us to discuss their recent book, Unlocking the Potential of Post-Industrial Cities. Appendices: Mac McComas: Two episodes of Jennifer Doleac's podcast Probable Causation: Episode 33: Jason Lindo on Violent Media Content and Episode 16: Stephen Billings on Lead and Crime. Matt Kahn: Stephen A's World on ESPN. Greg Shill: Can Removing Highways Fix America's Cities? Jeff Lin: Rethinking Detroit by Raymond Owens III, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, and Pierre-Daniel Sarte. Follow us on the web or on Twitter: @denselyspeaking, @jeffrlin, @greg_shill, @mattkahn1966, and @MacMc21CC. Producer: Schuyler Pals. The views expressed on the show are those of the participants, and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the Federal Reserve System, or any of the other institutions with which the hosts or guests are affiliated.
The killing of George Floyd has prompted a great deal of debate over whether the US should shrink its police departments. The research literature suggests that the presence of police officers does reduce crime, though they're not cheap, and as is increasingly recognised, impose substantial harms on the populations they are meant to be protecting, especially communities of colour.So maybe we ought to shift our focus to unconventional but effective approaches to crime prevention — approaches that would shrink the need for police or prisons and the human toll they bring with them.Jennifer Doleac — Associate Professor of Economics at Texas A&M University, and Director of the Justice Tech Lab — is an expert on empirical research into policing, law and incarceration, and we chose her to introduce the problem of criminal justice reform.Full transcript, related links, and summary of this interviewThis episode first broadcast on the regular 80,000 Hours Podcast feed on July 31, 2020. Some related episodes include:• #82 – James Forman Jr on reducing the cruelty of the US criminal legal system• #41 – David Roodman on incarceration, geomagnetic storms, & becoming a world-class researcherSeries produced by Keiran Harris.
Guest host Amanda Agan talks with Jennifer Doleac about how DNA databases affect crime and recidivism. “The Effects of DNA Databases on the Deterrence and Detection of Offenders” by Anne Sofie Tegner Anker, Jennifer L. Doleac, and Rasmus Landersø. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The Effects of DNA Databases on Crime” by Jennifer L. Doleac. “The Effects of Surveillance Cameras on Crime: Evidence from the Stockholm Subway” by Mikael Priks. “The Deterrent Effect of Surveillance Cameras on Crime” by Santiago Gómez, Daniel Mejía, Santiago Tobón. “Crime is Terribly Revealing: Information Technology and Police Productivity” by Giovanni Mastrobuoni. Probable Causation Episode 57: Giovanni Mastrobuoni. “Encouraging Desistance from Crime” by Jennifer L. Doleac.
Morgan Williams Jr. talks about the race-specific effects of policing. "Police Force Size and Civilian Race" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Emily Weisburst, and Morgan Williams, Jr. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime” by Steven Levitt. “Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime: Comment” by Justin McCrary. “Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effects of Police on Crime: Reply” by Steven Levitt. “COPS and Crime” by William N. Evans and Emily G. Owens. “Safety in Police Numbers: Evidence of Police Effectiveness from Federal COPS Grant Applications” by Emily Weisburst. “More COPS, Less Crime” by Steven Mello. “The Effects of COPS Office Funding on Sworn Force Levels, Crime, and Arrests” by Phillip Cook, Max Kapustin, Jens Ludwig, and Douglas Miller. “Are U.S. Cities Underpoliced? Theory and Evidence” by Aaron Chalfin and Justin McCrary. “Misdemeanor Prosecution” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, and Anna Harvey. Probable Causation Episode 51: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey.
Amanda Agan, Anna Harvey, and host Jennifer Doleac talk about the consequences of prosecuting defendants for nonviolent misdemeanor offenses.
A story by Angela Chen (formerly of the Verge and MIT Technology Review) about Jennifer Doleac's podcast Probable Causation. Learn how someone with an academic background has made a successful podcast that influences public policy. Originally appeared at https://timber.fm/stories/the-academic-whose-podcast-is-trying-to-change-the-law/
The effective altruist research community tries to identify the highest impact things people can do to improve the world. Unsurprisingly, given the difficulty of such a massive and open-ended project, very different schools of thought have arisen about how to do the most good.Today's guest, Alexander Berger, leads Open Philanthropy's ‘Global Health and Wellbeing' programme, where he oversees around $175 million in grants each year, and ultimately aspires to disburse billions in the most impactful ways he and his team can identify.In this conversation from 2021, Alexander explains the case in favour of adopting the ‘global health and wellbeing' mindset, while going through the arguments for the longtermist approach that he finds most and least convincing.Full transcript, related links, and summary of this interviewThis episode first broadcast on the regular 80,000 Hours Podcast feed on July 12, 2021. Some related episodes include: #22 – Dr Leah Utyasheva on the non-profit that figured out how to massively cut suicide rates #37 – GiveWell picks top charities by estimating the unknowable. James Snowden on how they do it. #83 – Jennifer Doleac on ways to prevent crime other than police and prisons Series produced by Keiran Harris.
In this episode we talk about how to approach networking with Jennifer Doleac. Jennifer Doleac is an Associate Professor of Economics at Texas A&M University, and Director of the Justice Tech Lab. She is also a Research Fellow at IZA, and a Research Affiliate at the Institute for Research on Poverty, the University of Chicago Crime Lab, and the Wilson Sheehan Lab for Economic Opportunities. Jennifer studies crime and discrimination, with particular emphases on prisoner reentry and the effects of technology on public safety. She also organizes the Texas Economics of Crime Workshop (TxECW), and also has a podcast! Probable Causation, a podcast about law, economics, and crime. Sebastian Tello-Trillo is an Assistant Professor of Public Policy and Economics at the Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy in the University of Virginia. Alex Hollingsworth is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the O'Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs in Indiana University. Show Notes We referred to Parkinson's law, which is the adage that "work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion". For non-research tasks, Jen schedules a finite amount of time, and she aims to finish those task by the amount of time allotted. For research tasks, her schedule is more flexible as she just assigns a amount of time (e.g. 2 hours) but won't put a specific tasks to get done. Jen also mentioned that she enjoys reading the book "The War of Art" right before a getting into a project to her get pumped up! Check this an other books recommendations in our ever-growing list of books recommended by our guests. (Click here). Jen also recommends checking out gather.town and the podcast Women at Work (click here) ****************Contest Rules*********************** - You have to be a Job Market Candidate (Defined as someone who is finishing their PhD and going on the Job Market to get their first job after graduated school) - Listen to today's episode and make a note of Jen's recommendation of the week - Choose one of your favorite episode - Send us an email to hiddencurriculumpodcast@gmail.com with Jen's recommendation and your favorite episode! Also gives us your name and your email address. You could also leave us a voice message on Anchor, be sure to leave us your email and name! - You have 7 days from the episode to make you submissions. That is, we will take submissions until December 15th - We will randomize the entries and pick a winner. We are hoping to announce the 1st winner on our subsequent podcast (we'll send you an email if you win) --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/hidden-curriculum/message
Jennifer Doleac is an Economist at Texas A&M University. She is also the Director of the Justice Texas Tech Lab.
Traditions, what are you good for? Absolutely nothing? In this episode of Increments, Ben and Vaden begin their series on Conjectures and Refutations by looking at the role tradition plays in society, and examine one tradition in particular - the critical tradition. No monkeys were harmed in the making of this episode. References:- C&R, Chapter 4: Towards a Rational Theory of TraditionPodcast shoutout:- Jennifer Doleac and Rob Wiblin on policing, law and incarceration- James Foreman Jr. on the US criminal legal system
The killing of George Floyd has prompted a great deal of debate over whether the US should reduce the size of its police departments. The research literature suggests that the presence of police officers does reduce crime, though they're expensive and as is increasingly recognised, impose substantial harms on the populations they are meant to be protecting, especially communities of colour. So maybe we ought to shift our focus to effective but unconventional approaches to crime prevention, approaches that don't require police or prisons and the human toll they bring with them. Today’s guest, Jennifer Doleac — Associate Professor of Economics at Texas A&M University, and Director of the Justice Tech Lab — is an expert on empirical research into policing, law and incarceration. In this extensive interview, she highlights three alternative ways to effectively prevent crime: better street lighting, cognitive behavioral therapy, and lead reduction. One of Jennifer’s papers used switches into and out of daylight saving time as a 'natural experiment' to measure the effect of light levels on crime. One day the sun sets at 5pm; the next day it sets at 6pm. When that evening hour is dark instead of light, robberies during it roughly double. Links to sources for the claims in these show notes, other resources to learn more, and a full transcript. The idea here is that if you try to rob someone in broad daylight, they might see you coming, and witnesses might later be able to identify you. You're just more likely to get caught. You might think: "Well, people will just commit crime in the morning instead". But it looks like criminals aren’t early risers, and that doesn’t happen. On her unusually rigorous podcast Probable Causation, Jennifer spoke to one of the authors of a related study, in which very bright streetlights were randomly added to some public housing complexes but not others. They found the lights reduced outdoor night-time crime by 36%, at little cost. The next best thing to sun-light is human-light, so just installing more streetlights might be one of the easiest ways to cut crime, without having to hassle or punish anyone. The second approach is cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), in which you're taught to slow down your decision-making, and think through your assumptions before acting. There was a randomised controlled trial done in schools, as well as juvenile detention facilities in Chicago, where the kids assigned to get CBT were followed over time and compared with those who were not assigned to receive CBT. They found the CBT course reduced rearrest rates by a third, and lowered the likelihood of a child returning to a juvenile detention facility by 20%. Jennifer says that the program isn’t that expensive, and the benefits are massive. Everyone would probably benefit from being able to talk through their problems but the gains are especially large for people who've grown up with the trauma of violence in their lives. Finally, Jennifer thinks that lead reduction might be the best buy of all in crime prevention… Blog post truncated due to length limits. Finish reading the full post here. In today’s conversation, Rob and Jennifer also cover, among many other things: • Misconduct, hiring practices and accountability among US police • Procedural justice training • Overrated policy ideas • Policies to try to reduce racial discrimination • The effects of DNA databases • Diversity in economics • The quality of social science research Get this episode by subscribing: type 80,000 Hours into your podcasting app. Producer: Keiran Harris. Audio mastering: Ben Cordell. Transcriptions: Zakee Ulhaq.
Texas A&M's Jennifer Doleac joins Matt to explain what we know (and don't know) about criminal justice. Resources: "How to Fix Policing" by Jennifer Doleac, Niskanen Center "How to Make a Police Force More Diverse" by Jennifer Doleac, Bloomberg "Changing Police Recruitment Messages Attracts a Larger and More Diverse Applicant Pool" by Jennifer Doleac, CCJ "Making Fair and Respected Cops: Procedural Justice Training in Chicago Proves Successful" by Jennifer Doleac, CCJ "Encouraging desistance from crime" by Jennifer Doleac "The Unintended Consequences of “Ban the Box”: Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes When Criminal Histories Are Hidden" by Jennifer Doleac (Texas A&M) & Benjamin Hansen (Univ. or Oregon) Guest: Jennifer Doleac (@jenniferdoleac), Economics professor, Texas A&M / Host of the Probable Causation podcast Hosts: Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias), Senior correspondent, Vox Credits: Jeff Geld, (@jeff_geld), Editor and Producer The Weeds is a Vox Media Podcast Network production Want to support The Weeds? Please consider making a contribution to Vox: bit.ly/givepodcasts About Vox Vox is a news network that helps you cut through the noise and understand what's really driving the events in the headlines. Follow Us: Vox.com Facebook group: The Weeds Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What does the research say about how we can reform police departments across the US? With protests going around the US and the world, Jeremiah hosts a panel of economists specializing in research on crime and policing to talk about how to reform the police. Jennifer Doleac, Jamein Cunningham and Bocar Ba share insights from their research and experience - What impacts do protests actually have? Which strategies should activists pursue? Should we worry about a 'backlash effect'? Where do we need more research and better data? The panel discusses all these topics and more, trying to understand how we build a better police force. If you enjoy the podcast, please rate and subscribe, and consider supporting us at patreon.com/neoliberalproject. Patrons get access to exclusive bonus episodes, our sticker-of-the-month club, and community Slack. Become a supporter today! Follow us at: https://twitter.com/ne0liberal https://www.instagram.com/realneoliberal/ https://www.facebook.com/groups/1930401007051265/ Join a local meetup group at https://neoliberalproject.org/chapters
In this week’s episode, while Loren cleans out her office, Radha and Erin dig into an array of China-related topics: Huawei! India! Hong Kong! And last, but certainly not least, the World Health Organization. The ladies then turn to White House/American mayhem and try to be analytical while lamenting ongoing violence against black Americans and the potential deployment of U.S. troops in American cities. And finally, an awkward transition to a discussion of pop-culture yields some gems. Links Huawei Scott Bade, “Huawei’s Terrible Week,” Tech Crunch, May 30, 2020 Emily Feng, “The Latest US Blow to China’s Huawei Could Knock Out Its Global 5G Plans,” NPR, May 28, 2020 India Border Jeffrey Gettleman and Steven Lee Myers, “China and India at 14,000 Feet Along the Border,” New York Times, May 30, 2020 Hong Kong Sergei Klebnikov, “Trump Announces New Sanctions On Chinese Officials, But Won’t Scrap Phase One Trade Deal,” Forbes, May 29, 2020 “Trump Targets China Over Hong Kong Security Law,” BBC News, May 30, 2020 Kenneth Rapoza, “Imaging Hong Kong Without Its US Special Status Deal,” Forbes, May 29, 2020 Jack Caporal, “The US-China Mini Deal (That Never Was?)” CSIS, October 17, 2019 WHO Brianna Ehley and Alice Miranda Ollstein, “Trump Announces US Withdrawal from the World Health Organization,” Politico, May 29, 2020 “Coronavirus: Backlash After Trump Signals US Exit from WHO,” BBC News, May 30, 2020 Protests in US Dan Lamothe, “Trump Administration Offers Active-Duty Military Forces and Intelligence to Help Quell Minnesota Unrest,” Washington Post, May 30, 2020 Samuel Sinyangwe, Tweet, October 5, 2019 Jennifer Doleac, Tweet, May 31, 2020 Megan Ming Francis, Tweet, May 30, 2020 Audrey McNamara, “ Paul Mayor Says Earlier Comments About Arrested Protesters Being Out of State Were Not Correct,” CBS News, May 30, 2020 “Pentagon Puts Military Police on Alert to Go to Minneapolis,” CNBC, May 30, 2020 George Floyd Kate Shellnutt, “George Floy Left a Gospel Legacy in Houston,” Chrsitanity Today, May 28, 2020
In this week’s episode, while Loren cleans out her office, Radha and Erin dig into an array of China-related topics: Huawei! India! Hong Kong! And last, but certainly not least, the World Health Organization. The ladies then turn to White House/American mayhem and try to be analytical while lamenting ongoing violence against black Americans and the potential deployment of U.S. troops in American cities. And finally, an awkward transition to a discussion of pop-culture yields some gems. Links Huawei Scott Bade, “Huawei’s Terrible Week,” Tech Crunch, May 30, 2020 Emily Feng, “The Latest US Blow to China’s Huawei Could Knock Out Its Global 5G Plans,” NPR, May 28, 2020 India Border Jeffrey Gettleman and Steven Lee Myers, “China and India at 14,000 Feet Along the Border,” New York Times, May 30, 2020 Hong Kong Sergei Klebnikov, “Trump Announces New Sanctions On Chinese Officials, But Won’t Scrap Phase One Trade Deal,” Forbes, May 29, 2020 “Trump Targets China Over Hong Kong Security Law,” BBC News, May 30, 2020 Kenneth Rapoza, “Imaging Hong Kong Without Its US Special Status Deal,” Forbes, May 29, 2020 Jack Caporal, “The US-China Mini Deal (That Never Was?)” CSIS, October 17, 2019 WHO Brianna Ehley and Alice Miranda Ollstein, “Trump Announces US Withdrawal from the World Health Organization,” Politico, May 29, 2020 “Coronavirus: Backlash After Trump Signals US Exit from WHO,” BBC News, May 30, 2020 Protests in US Dan Lamothe, “Trump Administration Offers Active-Duty Military Forces and Intelligence to Help Quell Minnesota Unrest,” Washington Post, May 30, 2020 Samuel Sinyangwe, Tweet, October 5, 2019 Jennifer Doleac, Tweet, May 31, 2020 Megan Ming Francis, Tweet, May 30, 2020 Audrey McNamara, “ Paul Mayor Says Earlier Comments About Arrested Protesters Being Out of State Were Not Correct,” CBS News, May 30, 2020 “Pentagon Puts Military Police on Alert to Go to Minneapolis,” CNBC, May 30, 2020 George Floyd Kate Shellnutt, “George Floy Left a Gospel Legacy in Houston,” Chrsitanity Today, May 28, 2020
Should employers simply stop asking job applicants if they have a criminal record? Tamasin Ford speaks to one American bakery that did exactly that. Lucas Tanner of the Greyston Bakery in New York explains why his Buddhist founder opted for a policy of "open hiring" - no questions, no interview, no CV, no background checks. Today there is a campaign to "ban the box" that applicants must tick to indicate whether they have a past conviction. But doing so has perversely led to greater racial bias in employment outcomes, according to Jennifer Doleac of the Texas A&M University. Instead of making the ban obligatory, Nicola Inge of the UK charity Business in the Community suggests that a more productive approach may be to encourage employers to make it part of their own hiring policies. Producer: Edwin Lane (Picture: Man's handcuffed hands; Credit: fotoedu/Getty Images)
Today’s episode is about sharing and explaining policy research. After putting in the hours to collect the data, analyze the findings, and report on your results, how do you ensure that people outside of academia learn what you’ve found and understand why it matters? My guests for this episode are economists Jennifer Doleac and Kosali Simon, who recently participated on a panel about interpreting and translating the relevance of policy research at a research conference hosted by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management. Jennifer is an associate professor of economics at Texas A&M University, the director of the Justice Tech Lab, and the host of the Probable Causation podcast (https://www.probablecausation.com/). She is on Twitter at https://twitter.com/jenniferdoleac. Kosali is a professor at the Paul H. O'Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana University Bloomington as well as the associate vice provost for health sciences at Indiana University Bloomington. She is also on Twitter at https://twitter.com/KosaliSimon. Find an abridged and edited Q&A blog based on a transcript of this conversation at: https://mathematica-mpr.com/commentary/tips-for-boosting-the-reach-and-impact-of-policy-research
Around the country, states are employing algorithms to help reduce prison populations and predict recidivism. This week, we hear from a Wisconsin judge with serious reservations about the algorithm used in his state. Also: a deep dive into Virginia's risk-assessment algorithm and the surprising results of its implementation. Guests: Nicholas McNamara, judge on the circuit court of Dane County, Wisconsin. Jennifer Doleac, associate professor of economics at Texas A&M and director of the Justice Tech Lab. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Around the country, states are employing algorithms to help reduce prison populations and predict recidivism. This week, we hear from a Wisconsin judge with serious reservations about the algorithm used in his state. Also: a deep dive into Virginia's risk-assessment algorithm and the surprising results of its implementation. Guests: Nicholas McNamara, judge on the circuit court of Dane County, Wisconsin. Jennifer Doleac, associate professor of economics at Texas A&M and director of the Justice Tech Lab. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Around the country, states are employing algorithms to help reduce prison populations and predict recidivism. This week, we hear from a Wisconsin judge with serious reservations about the algorithm used in his state. Also: a deep dive into Virginia's risk-assessment algorithm and the surprising results of its implementation. Guests: Nicholas McNamara, judge on the circuit court of Dane County, Wisconsin. Jennifer Doleac, associate professor of economics at Texas A&M and director of the Justice Tech Lab. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Patreon Episode, unlocked! Professor Jennifer Doleac joins the show to discuss the field of criminal justice research. We talk about the state of criminal justice technology, which criminal justice reforms work and which don't, and answer questions from supporters in our Patreon Slack. If you enjoy the podcast please rate and subscribe, and consider supporting us at Patreon.com/neoliberalproject. Patrons get access to exclusive bonus episodes, our sticker-of-the-month club and community Slack. Become a supporter today!
Links Ep. 5 – How do we know what works?, in which we discussed Jennifer Doleac’s work previously. Jennifer Doleac’s thread on Twitter Working on criminal justice topics gives me a very different perspective on the Kochs than my equally-liberal friends & family have. Charles Koch Foundation & Charles Kock Institute are perhaps the most important funders of research related to criminal justice policy & reform. They also frequently host conferences that bring top-notch researchers and practitioners together in one room — a chance to meet everyone else who’s working in this space. In other words, they throw great parties — sounds trivial but this is super important & helpful! Charles Koch Foundation has funded my own work related to prisoner reentry and I am deeply grateful for that as well as their broader support of my research. My contacts there & Charles Kock Institute are the first I call if I’m looking for practioner contacts. They know everyone! As funders they are extremely hands-off — to a degree that is almost funny. I think they know people are watching them closely for missteps so are super careful. But most funders in this space have strong opinions abt what you should study & what you should find. They don’t. Koch Industries for a long time was a major proponent of Ban the Box policies. When my research on BTB (which they did not fund) came out, showing detrimental effects, they were eager to hear about it & engage w the results. I really appreciated that. To my fellow liberals that love to hate the Koch brothers, I simply say: the story is more complicated (as always, right?). Charles Koch in particular is enabling & supporting evidence-based CJ reform in red & blue states alike, and that is something we should all appreciate. “Ban the Box” does more harm than good, by Jennifer Doleac, May 31, 2016 (Brookings) Arnold Foundation Laura Arnold’s Podcast (Apple Podcasts) The Replication Crisis (Wikipedia) The File Drawer Problem (Wikipedia) Academic Tenure (Wikipedia) Example of Correlation-Causation Escalation Periodontal Disease Bacteria Linked To Alzheimer’s Disease (American Academy of Periodontology) The study, published in the journal Science Advances, uncovered a potential link between P. gingivalis, the bacteria associated with periodontal disease (commonly known as gum disease) and Alzheimer’s. Porphyromonas gingivalis in Alzheimer’s disease brains: Evidence for disease causation and treatment with small-molecule inhibitors (Science Advances) Infectious agents have been found in the brain and postulated to be involved with AD, but robust evidence of causation has not been established.
Economist Jennifer Doleac of Texas A&M University talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about her research on crime, police, and the unexpected consequences of the criminal justice system. Topics discussed include legislation banning asking job applicants if they've been in prison, body cameras for police, the use of DNA databases, the use of Naloxone to prevent death from opioid overdose, and the challenges of being an economist who thinks about crime using the economist's toolkit.
Univ of Virginia's Jennifer Doleac explains why naloxone may be making the opioid epidemic worse. Harvard's Paul Reville discusses ripple effects of the West Virginia teacher strike. Author Urvashi Pitre makes delicious Indian food in Instant Pots. Boston Univ's Andrew Bacevich on the history of military parades. Parent Preview's Rod Gustafson reviews "A Wrinkle in Time." Anne Gold of Univ of Colorado Boulder connects STEM careers with childhood play.
Ryan Vogel of Utah Valley University discusses Obama's plan to veto a 9/11 victims bill. Leaving out your criminal status on an application hurts minorities according to Jennifer Doleac of the University of Virginia. Ned Smith at Northwestern University makes the case for fostering responsibility. Sam Payne joins us from BYUradio's "The Apple Seed." Then Perna Gupta CEO and Founder of Hooked joins us. BYU's Lincoln Blumell on the translation of Ama Helene's 1700-year-old obituary.