Podcasts about estimate

Rebecca Hotsko and Sam Burns discuss, Sam's 2023 market outlook, the strong market performance despite negative earnings revisions, and more!Sam Burns, CFA is the chief strategist at Mill Street Research – an independent research company specializing in proprietary institutional research tools for asset allocation, stock selection, and macro-economic indicators. Burns has more than 20 years of experience as a market strategist providing US and global investment insights at Wall Street firms including Oppenheimer & Co., Brown Brothers Harriman, State Street Global Markets, and Ned Davis Research.IN THIS EPISODE, YOU'LL LEARN:0:00 - Intro02:45 - The current state of the market and Sam's outlook for 2023. 09:46 - Why the market has held up so far despite the negative revisions to analyst's earnings estimates. 24:34 - Sam's specialty at Mill Street research which is tracking analyst earnings revisions. 30:32 - How analyst earning revisions can be used to inform an investment strategy. 35:49 - Investment strategies related to analyst earnings revisions, including the sectors that are seeing better-than-expected revisions. 47:31 - Which sectors have seen the most downward revisions in earnings estimates? 50:06 - Which sectors Sam is most bullish on long term.53:03 - The indicators Sam is watching that indicator the market may be on an uptrend. *Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.BOOKS AND RESOURCESCheck out: Mill Street Research. Related Episode: Listen to MI255: Navigating Bubble 3.0: Is This Time Different? w/ David Hay, or watch the video.NEW TO THE SHOW?Check out our Millennial Investing Starter Packs.Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.Try Robert and Rebecca's favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance.Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets.Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.P.S The Investor's Podcast Network is excited to launch a subreddit devoted to our fans in discussing financial markets, stock picks, questions for our hosts, and much more! Join our subreddit r/TheInvestorsPodcast today!SPONSORSGet a FREE audiobook from Audible.Let an expert do your taxes from start to finish so you can relax with TurboTax.Set, track, and manage your financial goals as your life evolves with Scotia Smart Investor.Get the professional support you need to prepare for your future career with UBC Sauder School of Business.Universal life insurance can offer protection and long-term tax-advantaged savings for your future goals & milestones. Get a universal life policy today through a simple, easy, and 100% digital purchase journey with Everly.What does happen when money and big feelings mix? Tune in to find out on the new podcast, Open Money, presented by Servus Credit Union.Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors.Connect with Sam: Website | Twitter Connect with Rebecca: Twitter | InstagramEmail: Rebecca@theinvestorspodcast.comSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Paul Harris connects with Ken Konkin of Tudor Gold regarding the latest news of the updated resource estimate for the Goldstorm Porphyry Deposit in British Columbia. Ken discusses the Indicated Mineral Resource of 23.37 million ounces (Moz) of gold equivalent (AuEQ) within 641.93 million tonnes (Mt) at a grade of 1.13 g/t AuEQ and Inferred Mineral Resource of 7.35 Moz AuEQ within 233.90 Mt at a grade of 0.98 g/t AuEQ. However, Ken also expresses the company's continued interest in finding more ounces within a few satellite targets outside of Goldstorm.

Welcome to Investories Deep Dive Season 1: Creative Financing  We're breaking down the strategies to empower your Real Estate investing journey.  Season 1 is all about creative financing. The who, the what, and importantly the how.  Creative financing isn't just seller financing, and we're going to dive into it all, from subto, to hard money.  This week Investories is speaking to Grace Gudenkauf, a real estate investor focused on building long term wealth through mid-term rentals, using creative financing. Outside of investing, Grace is one of the founders of WIIRE (Women invest in Real Estate), and is passionate about building communities.  Investories: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investoriespodcast7744 Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@investoriespod Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/investoriespod/ Email: investoriespodcast@gmail.com Grace Gudenkauf;  Instagram; https://www.instagram.com/grace.investing/ WIIRE Group; https://www.facebook.com/groups/wiire Training; https://motivated-teacher-2531.ck.page/19cba68eb0 Kyle: Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/yourmultifamilymentor Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/your_multifamily_mentor/?hl=en John:  Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hoopeezy/?hl=en Airbnb: https://airbnb.com/h/ponderosapinehaus  

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How to estimate the battery life of a product. In this example, the BM786 multimeter. How to measure battery current accurately, avoiding Burden voltage, and looking at battery datasheets characteristic curves. The difference between alkaline and lithium primary batteries. If you find my videos useful you may consider supporting the EEVblog on Patreon: http://www.patreon.com/eevblog Forum: ...

Luke Alexander walks listeners through the updated mineral resource from the Enchi Gold Project. The company announced 743,500 Indicated and 972,000 Inferred gold ounces in this updated, which was a suprise to the company interms of improved conversions from the previous resource.

The Goal Achievement Podcast, hosted by Matt East, is all about helping you find clarity, design a plan, and most importantly achieve your goals.Try productivity coaching free for 7-Days.Motivational quotes: https://www.matt-east.com/quotes Access my book for free here: https://www.matt-east.com/vipSubscribe on Apple Podcast, Spotify, & STITCHER.

Interview with Max Porterfield, President & CEO of Callinex Mines (TSX-V: CNX)Callinex Mines Inc. is a Canadian mineral exploration and development company advancing its portfolio of copper, zinc, gold and silver-rich deposits located in the Flin Flon, Bathurst and Buchans mining districts. The high-grade copper, gold, silver and zinc deposit of the company, the aptly named Rainbow deposit has recently been delineated after its discovery in 2020. The Rainbow deposit forms part of the company's Pine Bay project which is located near the border of Manitoba and Saskatchewan. 

Come listen how to convert more estimates and get more business.   #pdrtraining #pdrpodcast https://dentco.us

Alan Pangbourne of Chesapeake Gold joined Paul Harris at the BMO conference for a general discussion on the latest news from the company, which included an updated mineral resource estimate for the Metates gold-silver project in Mexico.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Why I don't agree with HLI's estimate of household spillovers from therapy, published by JamesSnowden on February 24, 2023 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Summary In its cost-effectiveness estimate of StrongMinds, Happier Lives Institute (HLI) estimates that most of the benefits accrue not to the women who receive therapy, but to household members. According to HLI's estimates, each household member benefits from the intervention ~50% as much as the person receiving therapy. Because there are ~5 non-recipient household members per treated person, this estimate increases the cost-effectiveness estimate by ~250%. i.e. ~70-80% of the benefits of therapy accrue to household members, rather than the program participant. I don't think the existing evidence justifies HLI's estimate of 50% household spillovers. My main disagreements are: Two of the three RCTs HLI relies on to estimate spillovers are on interventions specifically intended to benefit household members (unlike StrongMinds' program, which targets women and adolescents living with depression). Those RCTs only measure the wellbeing of a subset of household members most likely to benefit from the intervention. The results of the third RCT are inconsistent with HLI's estimate. I'd guess the spillover benefit to other household members is more likely to be in the 5-25% range (though this is speculative). That reduces the estimated cost-effectiveness of StrongMinds from 9x to 3-6x cash transfers, which would be below GiveWell's funding bar of 10x. Caveat in footnote. I think I also disagree with other parts of HLI's analysis (including how worried to be about reporting bias; the costs of StrongMinds' program; and the point on a life satisfaction scale that's morally equivalent to death). I'd guess, though I'm not certain, that more careful consideration of each of these would reduce StrongMinds' cost-effectiveness estimate further relative to other opportunities. But I'm going to focus on spillovers in this post because I think it makes the most difference to the bottom line, represents the clearest issue to me, and has received relatively little attention in other critiques. For context: I wrote the first version of Founders Pledge's mental health report in 2017 and gave feedback on an early draft of HLI's report on household spillovers. I've spent 5-10 hours digging into the question of household spillovers from therapy specifically. I work at Open Philanthropy but wrote this post in a personal capacity. I'm reasonably confident the main critiques in this post are right, but much less confident in what the true magnitude of household spillovers is. I admire the work StrongMinds is doing and I'm grateful to HLI for their expansive literature reviews and analysis on this question. Thank you to Joel McGuire, Akhil Bansal, Isabel Arjmand, Alex Cohen, Sjir Hoeijmakers, Josh Rosenberg, and Matt Lerner for their insightful comments. They don't necessarily endorse the conclusions of this post. 0. How HLI estimates the household spillover rate of therapy HLI estimates household spillovers of therapy on the basis of the three RCTs on therapy which collected data on the subjective wellbeing of some of the household members of program participants: Mutamba et al. (2018), Swartz et al. (2008), Kemp et al. (2009). Combining those RCTs in a meta-analysis, HLI estimates household spillover rates of 53% (see the forest plot below; 53% comes from dividing the average household member effect (0.35) by the average recipient effect (0.66)). HLI assumes StrongMinds' intervention will have a similar effect on household members. But, I don't think these three RCTs can be used to generate a reliable estimate for the spillovers of StrongMinds' program for three reasons. 1. Two of the three RCTs HLI relies on to estimate spillovers are on in...

Jaci Kipreos, Alex Kirkland, and Matt Jensen join Mark Reiboldt to discuss the evaluation and management coding section changes and announce the update to our popular E/M Impact Calculator. What does your organization need to do to address these changes?   Podcast Information  Follow our feed in Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Audible, or your preferred podcast provider. Like what you hear? Leave a review! We welcome all feedback from our listeners. Email us questions on any of the topics we discuss or questions about issues that interest you. You can also provide recommendations on matters for future episodes.  ·        Please email us: feedback@cokergroup.com ·        Connect with us on LinkedIn: Coker Group Company Page ·        Follow us on Twitter: @cokergroup ·        Follow us on Instagram: @cokergroup ·        Follow us on Facebook: @cokerconsulting   Episode Synopsis  Alex, Jaci, and Matt present what the road map looks like and what prompted CMS to give a directive. Outpatient changes started in 2021, and the inpatient changes were effective on January 1, 2023. Their advice is to treat 2023 as a preparation year, measuring high volume codes and conducting operational reviews by the provider to determine if the documentation will meet the new guidelines. These changes will also affect your compensation plans because there are material changes to the wRVUs.  The impact calculator estimates the potential economic impact your organization may face with a partial listing of changing codes. Please note that the results of the calculations include the national Medicare reimbursement impact based on the volume input. As such, the calculation results are meant for planning purposes only and do not represent an estimation of value. For a more in-depth assessment of your providers' payment calculations and how this may affect your commercial and other payers, please contact us to speak with one of our physician compensation experts.   Estimate the impact on key E/M codes https://cokergroup.com/2023-e-m-coding-calculator/?utm_source=libsyn&utm_medium=podcast&utm_term=episode-112&utm_content=link-website&utm_campaign=provider-comp-strategy&utm_source_platform=podcast-app&utm_creative_format=calculator&utm_marketing_tactic=tool   Extras  ·        Keeping up with the Changes: A Review of 2023 E/M Guidelines (https://cokergroup.com/keeping-up-with-the-changes-a-review-of-2023-e-m-guidelines/?utm_source=libsyn&utm_medium=podcast&utm_term=episode-112&utm_content=link-website&utm_campaign=coding-assessments&utm_source_platform=podcast-app&utm_creative_format=white-paper&utm_marketing_tactic=solution) ·        Major Changes to Split/Shared Billing Affect Advanced Practice Providers and Physicians (https://cokergroup.com/major-changes-to-split-shared-billing-affect-advanced-practice-providers-and-physicians/?utm_source=libsyn&utm_medium=podcast&utm_term=episode-112&utm_content=link-website&utm_campaign=provider-comp-strategy&utm_source_platform=podcast-app&utm_creative_format=blog&utm_marketing_tactic=awareness) ·        The Intersection of Compliance and Fair Market Value: Are You Sure Your Arrangements Coincide? (https://cokergroup.com/the-intersection-of-compliance-and-fair-market-value-are-you-sure-your-arrangements-coincide/?utm_source=libsyn&utm_medium=podcast&utm_term=episode-112&utm_content=link-website&utm_campaign=fmv-cr&utm_source_platform=podcast-app&utm_creative_format=blog&utm_marketing_tactic=awareness) ·        Case Study: Provider Compensation Misalignment (https://cokergroup.com/case-study-provider-compensation-misalignment/?utm_source=libsyn&utm_medium=podcast&utm_term=episode-112&utm_content=link-website&utm_campaign=fmv-cr&utm_source_platform=podcast-app&utm_creative_format=case-study&utm_marketing_tactic=solution)

APAC stocks lacked firm direction with price action mostly rangebound amid the mixed US close and with Japanese markets closed.FOMC minutes noted a few participants favoured a 50bps hike and all agreed more rate hikes are needed.European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4% after the cash market closed down 0.2% yesterday.DXY is a touch softer but maintaining 104 status, support in EUR/USD at 1.06 held, AUD and NZD outperform, USD/JPY capped by 135.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ CPI (Final), US GDP/PCE Q4 (2nd Estimate), IJC Japanese CPI, CBRT Policy Announcement, Speeches from Fed's Bostic & Daly, BoE's Cunliffe & Mann, Supply from US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are firmer on the session with a hefty earnings docket dictating action after an uninspiring APAC handover.Stateside, futures are broadly-speaking in-fitting with Europe though the NQ +0.7% outperforms given tailwinds from NVIDIA's after-market update.The DXY continues to grind higher at the top-end of 104.30-65 parameters to the mixed fortune of peers; Antipodeans outperform and GBP lags despite Mann.Gilts are the incremental laggards post-Mann and down to a new 101.26 session low with the Sonia strip similarly dented, EGBs & USTs in-fitting though incrementally more contained.BoE's Mann says she does not think UK monetary policy is in a restrictive stance particularly.WTI and Brent April futures are consolidating following another hefty session of losses, Henry Hub firmer, spot gold contained but erring lower.Looking ahead, highlights include US GDP/PCE Q4 (2nd Estimate), IJC Japanese CPI, Speeches from Fed's Bostic & Daly, BoE's Cunliffe, Supply from US, Earning from Moderna.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Blackwolf Copper and Gold's Rob McLeod joins us today to walk us through the updated mineral resource estimate at the Niblack project in Alaska. Rob focuses on the operating costs cut off in the estimate and why resource speculators need to take note of these regulations. We also chat about an MOU between Blackwolf and a few neighboring companies and projects to potentially share processing facilities with New Moly's Kitsault Project.

Are you a first time home buyer wondering how much you're being charged on your mortgage?  Are you having a difficult time understanding the loan estimate on your mortgage?  How do you compare one lender to another by looking at the loan estimate? What is a loan estimate?  When Should I received my loan estimate?  What is most important about my loan estimate?  What's the difference between closing costs and prepaids?  In this episode, we discuss the loan estimate in detail to help you avoid any pitfalls when going through the process of buying a home and so that you fully understand the loan estimate when buying a house to help you become The Educated HomeBuyer. ✅ - Want to get connected with us or to a local expert in your market, please reach out at http://www.theeducatedhomebuyer.com/expert

Whether you want to lose weight, build muscle, or just generally improve your health, learning how to estimate your maintenance calories is really important. In this episode, I'm going to teach you absolutely everything you need to know. 00:00 - Introduction 03:32 - What is "Maintenance"? 11:16 - Why is it important to estimate maintenance calories? 14:28 - How to estimate your maintenance calories? 20:19 - Factors that impact your maintenance calories 22:07 - How to use this information 25:16 - Other measurements you should track 27:55 - Conclusion and goodbye! So if that sounds good to you, let's dive in! My Article on This Topic » https://chrisgatesfitness.com/2023/02/20/how-to-estimate-your-maintenance-calories/ ---------- Learn about 1-on-1 online fitness coaching: https://chrisgatesfitness.com/coaching/ Get a FREE 21-Day Program: https://chrisgatesfitness.com/newsletter/ Save 20% with on Legion supplements: https://bit.ly/3XG0oot (Use code CGATES to save and get double loyalty points on each order.)

Game development is defined by creative work, and for leaders, sometimes that means ditching the old framework and coming up with nuanced approaches to common issues. This is especially true when it comes to estimations.   During this episode, we'll answer these key questions on this topic: How do you explain estimation to your team, and give them confidence that it's actually useful? How do you know which estimation tools to use in different circumstances? What can you do as a leader when someone misuses your team's estimates?   We go over guiding principles that will help you build trust with your team, communicate with stakeholders, and know what data is needed before making an estimation. You'll know how to find the value in estimations, and be able to discern when estimation becomes a hindrance instead of a tool.   By the end of this episode, you'll have a better understanding of estimation behaviors and how they drive a culture at your company. Tune in now!   Topics discussed in this episode: Effective vs. ineffective estimation systems Dealing with uncertainty Estimation based on past performance How successful developers estimate Issues leaders need to address Ben's project estimation story  Consequences of poor estimation   If you've enjoyed this episode and wonder if we could help your studio or company out, email us at info@valarinconsulting.com to set up a free 90-minute call!   For more episodes head to the Building Better Games Podlink.   Connect with us: TikTok Instagram LinkedIn   This episode was produced by Podcast Boutique http://podcastboutique.com/

We have important technical reports from Ivanhoe Electric, Calibre Mining, Hecla Mining and Trilogy Metals today. Exploration updates from Cartier Resources, Meridian Mining, and Vizsla Silver. We'd like to thank our sponsors: Western Copper and Gold is focused on developing the world-class Casino project in Canada's Yukon Territory. The Casino project consists of an impressive 11 billion pounds of copper and 21 million ounces of gold in an overall resource. Western Copper and Gold trades on the TSX and the NYSE American with WRN. Be sure to follow the company via their website, www.westerncopperandgold.com. ASCU is an early-stage copper developer and explorer of the Cactus Mine and its satellite project, Parks/Salyer, both situated on a 4km mine trend on private land in Arizona's porphyry copper district. Opportunity for significant growth and scale exist along the trend, while future capex requirements outlined in the Cactus PEA benefit from significant onsite and nearby access to infrastructure. The Company is led by an executive management team and Board which have a long-standing track record of successful project delivery in North America. For more information, please visit www.arizonasonoran.com. Fireweed Metals is advancing 3 different projects within the Yukon and Northwest Territories, including the flagship Macmillan Pass Project, a large zinc-lead-silver deposit and the Mactung Project, one of the largest and highest-grade tungsten deposits in the world. Fireweed plans to advance these projects through exploration, resource definition, metallurgy, engineering, economic studies and collaboration with indigenous people on the path to production. For more information please visit fireweedmetals.com.

This week's theme on the Retirement Quick Tips Podcast is: 10 Things You Must Do Before Retirement - Part 1 Today, I'm talking about estimating How Much You'll Spend on Health Care Costs Especially if you retire before 65, but even if you're covered by Medicare, the costs can vary widely depending on a number of factors, so make sure it's included in your retirement budget How to calculate this cost: online resources and estimators to help you Talk to a health insurance broker who specializes in retirement and medicare health care coverage - just had one on the podcast a few months ago - Tim Becker Costs based on a number of factors so it's important to estimate these costs and work them into your monthly retirement budget  Type of health insurance coverage and plan you pick Premiums and out-of-pocket expenses Other factors (like income, age, health status, marital status, state of residence, etc. Then make sure it's included in your retirement spending budget that I discussed yesterday That's it for today. Thanks for listening! My name is Ashley Micciche and this is the Retirement Quick Tips podcast.   --------- >>> Subscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2DI2LSP >>> Subscribe on Amazon Alexa: https://amzn.to/2xRKrCs >>> Visit the podcast page: https://truenorthra.com/podcast/  ---------- Tags: retirement, investing, money, finance, financial planning, retirement planning, saving money, personal finance

(2/9/23) - In today's Federal Newscast: GAO is preparing a first-of-its-kind estimate of the total amount of fraud across all federal programs. DoD health care providers expand their use of electronic health records. And GAO says FEMA needs stronger oversight of public-private partnerships.

Join The Center Square's Executive Editor Dan McCaleb and Reporter Brett Rowland as they discuss a U.S. House committee hearing made clear the total cost of fraud and waste in taxpayer-funded pandemic relief programs remains unknown. An oversight committee hearing Wednesday highlighted the cost of fraud in taxpayer-funded pandemic relief programs as federal agencies continue to tally losses. Hays County, Texas, resident Brandon Dunn lost his son to illicit fentanyl poisoning last year. His son and two other teenage boys from the same rural county died of fentanyl overdoses less than 60 days apart. --- Listen to Other ATN Productions: America's Talking: An interview podcast hosted by Austin Berg. Guests include professors, journalists, artists, business and nonprofit leaders, authors, and more. Everyday Economics: Join economist Dr. Orphe Divounguy and Chris Krug as they discuss global markets, inflation, and everything else that will help you understand the economic world around you. Future of Freedom: Future of Freedom is a bi-weekly podcast highlighting the work of the non-profits which are shaping the future of the freedom movement. Listeners will hear civil, intellectual conversations about why the organizations exist, what their mission is, and how they work to achieve it. Hosted by Scot Bertram. --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/america-in-focus/support

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Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Trends in the dollar training cost of machine learning systems, published by Ben Cottier on February 1, 2023 on The AI Alignment Forum. Summary Using a dataset of 124 machine learning (ML) systems published between 2009 and 2022, I estimate that the cost of compute in US dollars for the final training run of ML systems has grown by 0.49 orders of magnitude (OOM) per year (90% CI: 0.37 to 0.56). See Table 1 for more detailed results, indicated by "All systems." By contrast, I estimate that the cost of compute used to train "large-scale" systems since September 2015 (systems that used a relatively large amount of compute) has grown more slowly compared to the full sample, at a rate of 0.2 OOMs/year (90% CI: 0.1 to 0.4 OOMs/year). See Table 1 for more detailed results, indicated by "Large-scale." Based on the historical trends, and reviewing some prior work (Lohn & Musser, 2022 and Cotra, 2020), I estimated my best guess for how quickly costs will grow in the future. Here, I'm assuming a model like the one used by Cotra (2020), where this growth rate is sustained up until spending hits a limit at some non-trivial fraction of gross world product. The below estimates are much less robust than the historical trends. (more) My independent impression: 0.3 OOMs/year (90% CI: 0.1 to 0.4 OOMs/year) My all-things-considered view: 0.2 OOMs/year (90% CI: 0.1 to 0.3 OOMs/year) For future work, I recommend the following: Incorporate systems trained on Google TPUs, and TPU price-performance data, into Method 2. Estimate more reliable bounds on training compute costs, rather than just point estimates. For example, research the profit margin of NVIDIA and adjust retail prices by that margin to get a lower bound on hardware cost. As a broader topic, investigate trends in investment, spending allocation, and AI revenue. DataPeriodScale (start to end)Growth rate in dollar cost for final training runs(1) Using the overall GPU price-performance trend (go to results)All systems (n=124)$0.02 to $80KLarge-scale (n=25)$30K to $1M(2) Using the peak price-performance of the actual NVIDIA GPUs used to train ML systems (go to results)All systems (n=48)$0.10 to $80KLarge-scale (n=6)$200 to $70KWeighted mixture of growth ratesAll systemsN/A Estimation method (go to explanation) Jun 2009– Jul 2022 0.51 OOMs/year 90% CI: 0.45 to 0.57 Oct 2015– Jun 2022 0.2 OOMs/year 90% CI: 0.1 to 0.4 Jun 2009– Jul 2022 0.44 OOMs/year 90% CI: 0.34 to 0.52 Sep 2016– May 2022 0.2 OOMs/year 90% CI: 0.1 to 0.4 Jun 2009– Jul 2022 0.49 OOMs/year 90% CI: 0.37 to 0.56 Table 1: Estimated growth rate in the dollar cost of compute to train ML systems over time, based on a log-linear regression. OOM = order of magnitude (10x). See the section Summary of regression results for expanded result tables. Figure 1: estimated cost of compute in US dollars for the final training run of ML systems. The costs here are estimated based on the trend in price-performance for all GPUs in Hobbhahn & Besiroglu (2022) (known as "Method 1" in this report). Read the rest of the report here These are "milestone" systems selected from the database Parameter, Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning, using the same criteria as described in Sevilla et al. (2022, p.16): "All models in our dataset are mainly chosen from papers that meet a series of necessary criteria (has an explicit learning component, showcases experimental results, and advances the state-of-the-art) and at least one notability criterion (>1000 citations, historical importance, important SotA advance, or deployed in a notable context). For new models (from 2020 onward) it is harder to assess these criteria, so we fall back to a subjective selection. We refer to models meeting our selection criteria as milestone models." This growth rate is about 0.2 OOM/year lower than the growth of t...

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Basics of Rationalist Discourse, published by Duncan Sabien on January 27, 2023 on LessWrong. Introduction This post is meant to be a linkable resource. It contains a short list of guidelines that are intended to be fairly straightforward and uncontroversial, for the purpose of nurturing and strengthening a culture of clear thinking, clear communication, and collaborative truth-seeking. "Alas," said Dumbledore, "we all know that what should be, and what is, are two different things. Thank you for keeping this in mind." There is also (for those who want to read past the simple list) substantial expansion/clarification of each specific guideline, along with justification for the overall philosophy behind the set. Prelude: On Shorthand Once someone has a deep, rich understanding of a complex topic, they are often able to refer to that topic with short, simple sentences that correctly convey the intended meaning to other people with similar context and expertise. However, those same short, simple sentences are often dangerously misleading, in the hands of a novice who lacks the proper background. Dangerous precisely because they seem straightforward and comprehensible, and thus the novice will confidently extrapolate outward from them in what feel like perfectly reasonable ways, unaware the whole time that the concept in their head bears little or no resemblance to the concept that lives in the expert's head. Good shorthand in the hands of an experienced user need only be an accurate fit for the already-existing concept it refers to—it doesn't need the additional property of being an unmistakeable non-fit for other nearby attractors. It doesn't need to contain complexity or nuance—it just needs to remind the listener of the complexity already contained in their mental model. It's doing its job if it efficiently evokes the understanding that already exists, independent of itself. This is important, because what follows this introduction is a list of short, simple sentences comprising the basics of rationalist discourse. Each of those sentences is a solid fit for the more-complicated concept it's gesturing at, provided you already understand that concept. The short sentences are mnemonics, reminders, hyperlinks. They are not sufficient, on their own, to reliably cause a beginner to construct the proper concepts from the ground up, and they do not, by themselves, rule out all likely misunderstandings. All things considered, it seems good to have a clear, concise list near the top of a post like this. People should not have to scroll and scroll and sift through thousands of words when trying to refer back to these guidelines. But each of the short, simple sentences below admits of multiple interpretations, some of which are intended and others of which are not. They are compressions of complex points, and compressions are inevitably lossy. If a given guideline is new to you, check the in-depth explanation before reposing confidence in your understanding. And if a given guideline stated-in-brief seems to you to be flawed or misguided in some obvious way, check the expansion before spending a bunch of time marshaling objections that may well have already been answered. Further musing on this concept: Sazen Guidelines, in brief: 0. Expect good discourse to require energy. Don't say straightforwardly false things. Track (for yourself) and distinguish (for others) your inferences from your observations. Estimate (for yourself) and make clear (for others) your rough level of confidence in your assertions. Make your claims clear, explicit, and falsifiable, or explicitly acknowledge that you aren't doing so (or can't). Aim for convergence on truth, and behave as if your interlocutors are also aiming for convergence on truth. Don't jump to conclusions—maintain at least two hypotheses...

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Basics of Rationalist Discourse, published by Duncan Sabien on January 27, 2023 on LessWrong. Introduction This post is meant to be a linkable resource. It contains a short list of guidelines that are intended to be fairly straightforward and uncontroversial, for the purpose of nurturing and strengthening a culture of clear thinking, clear communication, and collaborative truth-seeking. "Alas," said Dumbledore, "we all know that what should be, and what is, are two different things. Thank you for keeping this in mind." There is also (for those who want to read past the simple list) substantial expansion/clarification of each specific guideline, along with justification for the overall philosophy behind the set. Prelude: On Shorthand Once someone has a deep, rich understanding of a complex topic, they are often able to refer to that topic with short, simple sentences that correctly convey the intended meaning to other people with similar context and expertise. However, those same short, simple sentences are often dangerously misleading, in the hands of a novice who lacks the proper background. Dangerous precisely because they seem straightforward and comprehensible, and thus the novice will confidently extrapolate outward from them in what feel like perfectly reasonable ways, unaware the whole time that the concept in their head bears little or no resemblance to the concept that lives in the expert's head. Good shorthand in the hands of an experienced user need only be an accurate fit for the already-existing concept it refers to—it doesn't need the additional property of being an unmistakeable non-fit for other nearby attractors. It doesn't need to contain complexity or nuance—it just needs to remind the listener of the complexity already contained in their mental model. It's doing its job if it efficiently evokes the understanding that already exists, independent of itself. This is important, because what follows this introduction is a list of short, simple sentences comprising the basics of rationalist discourse. Each of those sentences is a solid fit for the more-complicated concept it's gesturing at, provided you already understand that concept. The short sentences are mnemonics, reminders, hyperlinks. They are not sufficient, on their own, to reliably cause a beginner to construct the proper concepts from the ground up, and they do not, by themselves, rule out all likely misunderstandings. All things considered, it seems good to have a clear, concise list near the top of a post like this. People should not have to scroll and scroll and sift through thousands of words when trying to refer back to these guidelines. But each of the short, simple sentences below admits of multiple interpretations, some of which are intended and others of which are not. They are compressions of complex points, and compressions are inevitably lossy. If a given guideline is new to you, check the in-depth explanation before reposing confidence in your understanding. And if a given guideline stated-in-brief seems to you to be flawed or misguided in some obvious way, check the expansion before spending a bunch of time marshaling objections that may well have already been answered. Further musing on this concept: Sazen Guidelines, in brief: 0. Expect good discourse to require energy. Don't say straightforwardly false things. Track (for yourself) and distinguish (for others) your inferences from your observations. Estimate (for yourself) and make clear (for others) your rough level of confidence in your assertions. Make your claims clear, explicit, and falsifiable, or explicitly acknowledge that you aren't doing so (or can't). Aim for convergence on truth, and behave as if your interlocutors are also aiming for convergence on truth. Don't jump to conclusions—maintain at least two hypotheses...

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Announcing Introductions for Collaborative Truth Seeking Tools, published by brook on January 23, 2023 on The Effective Altruism Forum. EA involves working together remotely a lot. Tools exist to make this experience better, but they may be underused. In particular, we're trying to do truth seeking. It's easier to do that when it's easy to explain your view, understand others', and quickly see agreements, disagreements and cruxes. In addition, taking some time to lay out your model clearly is probably good for your own thinking and understanding. This sequence will introduce tools for doing that, alongside tutorials & guidance. Each day's post will also have a challenge you can use the tool to solve, to get a feel for the tool and see if it's for you. We'll also be running a short session each day in the EA GatherTown; if you want to try the tools as part of a group, make sure to come along! Why do this? EA involves a lot of collaborating, often remotely, and in particular communicating complex models or concepts. There are a lot of software tools available to help with this, but they don't seem to be used as often as they could be, or as broadly. Often, when tutorials exist, they're poorly written and/or not targeted at the way EAs would likely be using this tool. This project has 3 key goals: Increase the use of collaborative truth-seeking tools (so EAs can find truth better together) Improve how EAs are using these tools (by introducing them to the key features quickly) Save EAs time (searching for tutorials or looking through poorly-written documentation) What is it? I've collated tutorials (where they exist) and written or recorded them (where they don't) which I think are useful for EAs. There'll be a forum post each day for the next 7 week days, each consisting of video and text tutorials for either one complex tool or a handful of smaller tools. Sometimes posts will consist primarily of links elsewhere, if good tutorials already exist. To help people find tools which might be useful for a given project, there's also a wiki page with short summaries of tools. Here are the posts you can expect to see over the next [??]: Guesstimate: Why and How to Use it Visualisation of Probability Mass Squiggle: Why and How to Use it Loom: Why and How to Use it Excalidraw: Why and How to Use it Forecasting tools and Prediction Markets: Why and How Polis: Why and How to Use it What kinds of tasks are we talking about? To make this a little more concrete than 'collaborative truth seeking', here are some examples of tasks EAs might want to do which could benefit from the use of one of these tools: Get feedback on your model of the impact of a grant to provide malaria bed nets (guesstimate) Summarise a forum post visually (excalidraw) Summarise a forum post in video form (loom) View an aggregate prediction for when we might expect AGI before deciding which area of AI to work in, and how (metaculus) Compare theories of what kinds of interventions might be useful to reduce biorisk (excalidraw, guesstimate) Calculate the expected value of trialling meditating for 2 weeks (guesstimate) Estimate the success of an ongoing project providing access to birth control for monitoring and evaluation (squiggle) Record a 3 minute video summarising your progress instead of having an hour-long meeting with your supervisor (loom) Learn to quantitatively forecast with a short feedback loop (pastcasting) So, if you've tried to do tasks of this nature, keep an eye out! Tomorrow: Guesstimate, a tool for quantifying intuitions. As a final request, we'd also really appreciate any feedback you have about the tools or the posts, or if you have any suggestions for tools you think deserve to have posts made about them! Thanks for listening. To help us out with The Nonlinear Library or to learn more, please ...

In today's episode of Replace Your Income, we have some important announcements to share with you!We're going to share how a text from an old friend and an Indian lunch has led to our latest property management announcement and why you should be excited about it… as well as our brand-new podcast recording studio.But on top of that, we're also going to be announcing the new market that we will be entering in 2023 and what our expectations are.Make sure to check it out!Key Takeaways:Intro (00:00)Our new podcast studio (02:06)Our management dilemma (09:35)How this decision came about (15:42)Our litmus test for new partners (23:19)Our newest market! (33:56)Additional ResourcesLearn more about Done For You Real Estate: VISIT HEREGet a FREE Income Replacement Estimate (IRE): APPLY HERERegister for our FREE Monthly Webinar Series: SIGN UP HERE--FOLLOW for more Replace Your Income:https://bit.ly/ReplaceYourIncomePodcastIf you enjoyed this episode, please rate and review our podcast. Thank you for your support!--And remember...Income replacement for you and your family may only be one property away!

Short-term rentals are becoming increasingly popular these days, but why? What draws people to this asset class? Is this portfolio something you would be interested in investing in as well? Getting the best return on your investment requires knowing how to do things right. It is crucial to understand pricing, market demand, and the best location for these properties. Your short-term rental properties will benefit from considering these factors. Alex Haler is an STR expert with years of experience in STR management, investing & real estate. Currently, he is the head of real estate sales at AirDNA, a data and analytics company in the STR space. In this episode, Alex shares how from renting out his couch to strangers at the start, he scaled his short-term rentals to what it is today. He shares a pricing structure he uses and software that streamlines his process of finding the best locations and where demand is strong. Besides, his prediction of where the industry is going years from now is an insightful one to look into. Checkout: Raising Capital Without Rejection Full-Day Workshop (Online): https://investorattractionworkshop.com/ What you will learn from this episode for 18 minutes: Find out why there is strong demand for short-term rental properties despite increase in supply. Discover a pricing management strategy to gain more profitability for your Airbnb. Understand the macro and micro trends for analyzing markets and find out which niches are profitable to invest in. Resources: For FREE data and stats resources, click here: http://www.airdna.co/ Topics Covered: 01:05 - How he found himself in the Airbnb space 01:45 - What his journey was like putting up AirDNA 03:58 - The macro and micro trends to consider when analyzing market trends where short-term rentals are concerned 05:51 - How he uses software to track short-term rental markets' demand and viable niches to invest in 07:34 - How good dynamic pricing and revenue management strategy help in short-term rental's profitability 10:00 - Estimate of professional hosts using dynamic pricing 10:49 - Number of properties operated by individual hosts versus property management 11:49 - Where does he see the short-term rental industry going when it comes to its operations and the demand for them? 13:29 - Supply is increasing, but surprisingly demand is also up Key Takeaways: "There are a lot of micro considerations when you're looking to do a short-term rental investment, as well as the macro stuff, economy, interest rates, real estate prices, pandemics, those types of things." "We're analyzing things like rental demand, rental growth, seasonality, and investability. Or we will take a home's short-term rental potential, divided over the median home price in that area to give you an investability score of what markets might be interesting for it. "Revenue Management software can help you basically make that determination for you. It will look at future pacing or booking information and help you predict [demand]." "The supply is indeed increasing a lot, but demand is actually going stronger than ever. And the CEO of Airbnb just recently gave an interview where he said they're seeing huge increases in week-long stays, month-long stays, the digital nomad trend." Connect with Alex Haler: Website: http://www.airdna.co/ Connect with Dave Dubeau: Podcast: http://www.propertyprofitspodcast.com/ Website: https://davedubeau.com/home Investor Attraction Workshop: http://www.investorattractionworkshop.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedavedubeau LinkedIn: http://linkedin.com/in/davedubeau  

In today's episode, we keep you up to date with everything that is happening in the market right now.We're going to be discussing demand, interest rates, and exactly what you need to be doing to navigate the current market… (And hint: it's not sitting on the sidelines.)Of course, if you turn on the news nowadays, it's all doom and gloom. You'll hear about price reductions on the east coast and west coast. But if you look at the markets that we have handpicked, there's still no reason why it isn't a fantastic time to invest.Make sure to check it out!Key Takeaways:Intro (00:00)Two websites you should check out (01:26)What's the big picture of the market? (05:07)What's going on with demand? (11:16)None of our clients have said this before (21:56)What the news is saying (23:11)Episode wrap-up (27:05)Additional Resources:Learn more about Done For You Real Estate: VISIT HEREGet a FREE Income Replacement Estimate (IRE): APPLY HERERegister for our FREE Monthly Webinar Series: SIGN UP HERE--FOLLOW for more Replace Your Income:https://bit.ly/ReplaceYourIncomePodcastIf you enjoyed this episode, please rate and review our podcast. Thank you for your support!--And remember...Income replacement for you and your family may only be one property away!

*NEW ITEM!* Purchase my newest book! "15 Conversations with Real Estate Millionaires" https://amzn.to/3CGOWOU

Hear Jared Christman as he discusses how you can save on labor by working smarter.

The National Agricultural Statistics Service will publish the first official estimate of the 2023-2024 winter wheat crop planted area on January 12. U.S. Wheat Associates and America's wheat-importing customers will be watching trade estimates before the report is issued.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What's the true scale of China's virus surge? An estimate puts the number at 600 million. The United States is considering new steps to curb the spread of COVID-19 as infections skyrocket in China. A growing number of countries are now taking action, from France to Australia. Twenty feet—the dangerously close distance between Chinese and American military aircraft. But which side is to blame? North Korea is celebrating the new year with missiles. Its leader is vowing to develop a larger nuclear arsenal. And South Korea responds. Will there be a nuclear race on the Korean peninsula? The Chinese ambassador to the United States is given an unprecedented spotlight at an NBA game. We look at why. ⭕️ Watch in-depth videos based on Truth & Tradition at Epoch TV

Estimate: China Infections Could Hit 600 MillionU.S. Weighs Airline Wastewater Testing as COVID-19 Surges in ChinaBody Bags, Urns, Wreathes Sold Out: Factory OwnerHospital Staff: Many Patients Getting ReinfectedReturnees Scuffle with Police at China AirportTaiwan Offers Help to China Amid COVID-19 SurgeChinese Jet Within 20 Feet of U.S. Military AircraftN. Korean Leader Promises Larger Nuclear ArsenalSouth Korea, U.S. Discuss Nuclear Exercises: YoonNba Draws Backlash Over Ties with CCPTikTok a Weaponized Military App in Kids' Hands: Fleming

Estimate: China COVID Infections Could Hit 600 Million; US Weighs Airline Wastewater Testing

COVID-19 Out of Control in China, Reports Estimate 248 Million Infected in 20 Days

COVID-19 Out of Control in China, Reports Estimate 248 Million Infected in 20 DaysTop China Health Body Stops Updating Daily InfectionsChina to End Quarantine for International TravelersChina Hospitals 'Overwhelmed' by COVID-19 SurgeChina's Biggest Cities Edge Toward Living with COVID-19'White Lungs' Reappear in China, Similar to Early Pandemic in Wuhan: ReportsChina Detects Over 130 Sublineages of OmicronShanghai Hosts Christmas Market Despite Virus SurgeChina Send Record Jets near Taiwan Over U.S. BillHow Jiang Zemin's Persecution of Falun Gong Brought Endless Disasters to China: Expert

What's the true scale of China's COVID-19 outbreak? A leaked document from the country's top health body gives insight. The same agency is halting updates of daily infection numbers. The country is no longer counting its total patient numbers. There are no more quarantine requirements for China's incoming travelers, despite an explosion of new cases overwhelming hospitals and funeral homes. Beijing sent over 70 warplanes near Taiwan in just 24 hours. Tensions are brewing after President Joe Biden approved the latest U.S. support for the island. ⭕️ Watch in-depth videos based on Truth & Tradition at Epoch TV

China is seeing a wave of COVID-19 outbreaks across the country, and high-level Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials are among the estimated 5,000 people dying each day. There are various speculations going around on why the death rates in China appear to be higher than in other countries, particularly from the Omicron variant, which was shown elsewhere to have higher infection rates, yet lower mortality. Meanwhile, Chinese hospitals and morgues are allegedly overwhelmed. Medicines are also running short on supply. The situation is bringing attention to the “CCP Model” or “China Model” of handling COVID-19, which includes lockdowns, mask mandates, and other totalitarian policies. The outbreak and deaths suggest the CCP Model has failed, and represent a shot over the bow to any countries looking to adopt the same. In this live Q&A with Crossroads host Joshua Philipp, we'll discuss these stories and others, and answer questions from the audience. ⭕️ Stay up-to-date with Josh with the Crossroads NEWSLETTER

Tax planning - start with a tax projection and estimate Thank you for listening to another episode of Wealth Game podcast. The goal is to get informal yet actionable advice directly to business owners and investors. The episodes are intended to be short and simple to allow busy professionals to get right to the point of growing their wealth and reducing their taxes. For topic suggestions, questions to cover, or collaboration requests please email questions@wealthgamepodcast.com. For additional information and links to all available platforms please visit our website at www.wealthgamepodcast.com

AP correspondent Jennifer King reports on Economy GDP-Q3 3.2%

The Fed raised rates 50 basis points last week.

In today's episode, we are going to be unveiling our newest methods of analyzing properties, and outlining all the key metrics you need to know + unveiling a VERY special project we have coming up…This is a property analysis tool that breaks property down and breaks the potential profitability down in a way that's better than anything else that we have ever seen - we don't think there's anyone else on the planet who is looking at real estate in this way!This is born out of 15 years of blood, sweat, and tears. From success and failure, from doing deals to losing deals,  this has been nothing but our experience for a decade and a half.And in today's episode, we are going to share it with you.We're also going to share a brand new way for you to get a whole range of purchasable properties sent straight to you every single week. It can't get much better than that!So make sure you check it out!Key Takeaways:Intro (00:00)It's been a great year for us (03:44)Why you have to be able to adapt (09:37)We are super excited to share this with you (15:02)Our new tool of property analysis (20:38)Is cash flow king? (22:03)Does past performance = future performance? (30:06)Additional Resources:Learn more about Done For You Real Estate: VISIT HEREGet a FREE Income Replacement Estimate (IRE): APPLY HERERegister for our FREE Monthly Webinar Series: SIGN UP HERE--FOLLOW for more Replace Your Income:https://bit.ly/ReplaceYourIncomePodcastIf you enjoyed this episode, please rate and review our podcast. Thank you for your support!--And remember...Income replacement for you and your family may only be one property away!

Show notes at pharmacyjoe.com/episode775. In this episode, I ll discuss a web-based program to estimate vancomycin AUC from a single trough value. The post 775: A web-based program to estimate vancomycin AUC from a single trough value appeared first on Pharmacy Joe.

Need to know how to estimate rehab costs, even if you're investing out of state? For most investors, it seems almost impossible to do a full-scale renovation while living hundreds, or thousands, of miles away. But, many time-tested investors have done it (including Tony), and you can too, but you'll need to know who to go to and what to ask before you start. Or, you could bite off way more than you can chew, and risk losing your rental as a result.Happy Saturday, rookies! We're back with another Rookie Reply, where your snowed-in on her birthday host, Ashley Kehr, and Tony J. Robinson are here to answer questions directly from the Real Estate Rookie Facebook Group and the Rookie Request Line. In this episode, Ashley and Tony share their best tips on estimating rehab costs, how to structure a partnership when someone brings money and the other brings effort, separating your rental property finances, and how to find a rock-solid CPA before tax time!If you want Ashley and Tony to answer a real estate question, you can post in the Real Estate Rookie Facebook Group! Or, call us at the Rookie Request Line (1-888-5-ROOKIE).In This Episode We CoverThe easiest way to estimate rehab costs even if you're investing from out of stateHow to split expenses on a rental property and which different bank accounts to haveBusiness credit cards and how to make bookkeeping much easier for yourselfWhy expert investors ALWAYS buffer in more money for unexpected rehab costsHow to split roles, responsibilities, and profits in a real estate partnership What to look for in a real estate CPA and questions they MUST be able to answerAnd So Much More!Links from the ShowFind an Investor-Friendly Real Estate AgentReal Estate Rookie Facebook GroupQuickBooksStessaMLSLowe's Home ImprovementThe Home DepotFrom Line Cook to Long-Term Investor with 32 Wholesale DealsBiggerPockets BootcampsBiggerPockets ForumsReal Estate Rookie YouTube channelConnect with Ashley And Tony:Ashley's InstagramAshley's BiggerPockets ProfileTony's InstagramTony's BiggerPockets ProfileCheck the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/rookie-244Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Check out our sponsor page!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

New year, new pricing? Maybe. We shouldn't just be pulling our pricing "out of the whim of our booties", but there should actually be some data and structure behind what we are charging and WHY. We chat through some practical ways you can estimate (or update) your pricing as we enter the new year, and why it's important to really consider a balance of all things including revenue + demand when estimating what to charge for your photography!JOIN OUR SEO WORKSHOP:https://rootedwrkshp.com/seo-crash-course-workshopJOIN OUR FACEBOOK GROUP!https://www.facebook.com/groups/290560138952444Connect with Dani: @danipurington , @rootedwrkshp

Fortuna Silver CEO Discusses Increased Sunbird Resource Estimate, & New Regional Prospects at Séguéla Earlier this week Fortuna Silver provided an update to its exploration program at the Séguéla gold Project, including an increase to its Sunbird resource estimate, and the identification of new regional prospects. Exploration drilling at Sunbird has resulted in a maiden Indicated Resource Estimate of 279,000 gold ounces and an Inferred Mineral Resource of 506,000 ounces. Fortuna has also advanced the Barana and Badior discoveries, and extended mineralization at the Kestrel Prospect. And on this live call, Fortuna CEO Jorge Ganoza talks about the results, and answer questions from silver analysts Dave Kranzler and Peter Spina. So to stay up to date on the progress from Fortuna Silver, join us for this call at noon eastern on Thursday December 8! - To read the press release with the full details of the news go to: https://fortunasilver.com/investors/news/fortuna-increases-sunbird-resource-and-identifies-new-regional-prospects-at-seguela-cote-d-ivoire/Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

Wanna know a secret? This year, I brought home almost the same amount of money as I did in 2019 - which was my busiest and highest revenue year to date. The crazy thing? I worked LESS this year and didn't make as much revenue, yet still brought home the same amount as 2019! So what the heck happened?Today, we are going to talk through 3 practical ways to practice "healthy wealth" and what I think defines that. If you're ready to chat money, then this episode is for you. Let's do it!JOIN OUR SEO WORKSHOP:https://rootedwrkshp.com/seo-crash-course-workshopJOIN OUR FACEBOOK GROUP!https://www.facebook.com/groups/290560138952444