Podcasts about estimate

Luke Alexander of Newcore Gold joins us today for a discussion on today's news from the Enchi Gold Project. The company has published its updated mineral resource estimate which will be used for its upcoming preliminary feasibility study anticipated for this summer. Today's resources now sit at 1.5Moz of Indicated and 626Koz of Inferred.

In the last episode, I discussed seven mistakes to avoid when filing your 2025 taxes. So in this episode, I'm going to discuss the tax-filing mistakes people can make when filing an extension. Here are the four most common extension errors that could cost you money, including misconceptions about payment deadlines, underestimating taxes, and the importance of understanding state-specific extension rules.  You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... [00:00] Mistakes that people can make if they're filing an extension [01:41] Importance of filing for an extension by the tax deadline [02:35] Distinction between failure-to-file and failure-to-pay penalties [03:53] Suggestions for estimating: using last year's tax return, factoring in income changes, or major events [06:09] Importance of reviewing and complying with state-specific deadlines and requirements [08:21] Filing an extension buys time for accuracy but doesn't delay payment obligations   Avoiding Common Tax Extension Mistakes Tax season is a stressful time for many, and for those with complex finances, business obligations, or unexpected circumstances, filing a tax extension may seem like a wise solution. These are the four biggest mistakes people make when filing a tax extension, along with my practical tips to avoid penalties and unnecessary stress.    Notifying the IRS The first—and perhaps most critical—mistake is assuming that wanting more time is enough. Extensions aren't automatic; they require formally notifying the IRS by filing Form 4868 by the standard tax deadline, usually April 15th. Without this key step, the IRS will consider your return late, resulting in penalties. If nothing else, mark this on your tax checklist: file Form 4868 on time, every time.   Extension to File Isn't Extension to Pay A widespread misconception is that an extension grants extra time to pay taxes due. Only your paperwork deadline shifts, your payment due date does not. Any unpaid federal taxes accrue interest from the original deadline, and failure-to-pay penalties start after April 15th. In fact, failing to file entirely triggers even steeper penalties. Estimate your tax liability and pay what you owe, even if you're still finalizing the details. Overestimating is safer, as any excess will be refunded after you fill it in.   The Hidden Danger of Inaccurate Estimates Filing an extension isn't a hall pass to put off financial reckoning. You're still required to estimate how much you owe—a process that can trip up those who experienced income changes, investment gains, asset sales, or one-time distributions. The IRS expects most to pay either 90% of their current-year tax liability or 100% of last year's taxes (110% for high earners with AGI over $150,000) by the deadline to avoid penalties. Miss these benchmarks, and you could face interest or underpayment penalties—even if you settle up once you eventually file. Review your prior year's return and factor in any unusual income for the year. If in doubt, partner with a tax professional or use IRS Form 1040-ES for guidance.   Don't Overlook State Tax Extension Rules One major mistake is forgetting—or not knowing—that state tax extension rules often differ from the IRS. Some states, like Connecticut, sync with federal extensions only if you owe nothing additional; if you do, you'll need to file a state-specific extension. New York requires its own extension form, and most states expect payment by their deadline, regardless of a federal extension. Double-check your state tax agency's website or contact a professional. Often, a separate state extension is mandatory, and missing this step can come with its own set of penalties.   Plan for a Stress-Free Tax Extension Filing a tax extension can buy valuable time, but it's not a financial "pause" button. Always file Form 4868 (and any state-specific forms) on time. Pay the lesser of 90% of current-year or 100% (or 110% for high earners) of last year's tax by the April deadline, and study your state's requirements—federal rules don't always apply. Being proactive can save you hundreds (or thousands) in penalties and give you the space to file correctly and confidently later in the year.   Resources Mentioned IRS Form 1040-ES IRS Form 4868 Retirement Readiness Review Subscribe to the Retire with Ryan YouTube Channel Download my entire book for FREE    Connect With Morrissey Wealth Management  www.MorrisseyWealthManagement.com/contact Subscribe to Retire With Ryan  

Wildfires are also out of control in South Dakota and Kansas at this time.

You priced the job. You won the job. And somewhere in the middle of it, you realized you forgot to price something.   Not the whole thing — just one line item. A fence panel that has to come down. A disposal run nobody counted. A gate too narrow for your equipment.   And now it's coming out of your pocket.   This episode is about why that keeps happening — and what one simple habit fixes it. Scott breaks down the job site evaluation checklist he uses in his own business: what to look for during every site walk, where landscapers most often lose money without realizing it, and why the most experienced contractors in the world still use a checklist every time.   You'll also get the actual hardscape job site evaluation form — free in the show notes — so you can start using it on your next estimate.   If you've ever finished a job and thought "I should've priced that differently," this one's for you.   What's covered: Why estimating from memory works until it costs you Site access mistakes that quietly kill your margin Hidden costs most landscapers walk right past How to document the site so you're protected if something comes up Why this system matters even more the moment you start sending other people out to estimate   Free download: Hardscape Job Site Evaluation Form here: https://mdl.coach/siteevaluation   Follow Million Dollar Landscaper: Website | Facebook | Instagram | YouTube

A big downgrade to the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter of last year, AP correspondent Mike Hempen reports.

It's a Reddit questions episode! We discuss whether the future of Product Management is a hybrid AI-driven PM/engineer role, what to do when an engineer refuses to give you an estimate, a Product Manager who doesn't realize he's got to sell the positive outcomes to bring internal stakeholders along with him, and more. Join the discussion on Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/AcceptanceCriteria/ And on the Discord: https://discord.gg/2Tyj8H9MFF The post E068: AI for Product Managers, Engineers who won't estimate, and more first appeared on Acceptance Criteria.

Ryan and I discuss how to use MTRX for to get more approvals for your jobs and earn more Money in your business. Most of you have this tool. It's time to learn how to use it to its max potential! www.dentprosacramento.com  

Sitka Gold has announced their maiden resource estimate for its Rhosgobel gold Deposit on the RC Gold Project in Yukon. We have new drill results out from American Eagle Gold, and Omai Gold Mines. Tocvan Ventures, Mithril Silver and Gold, Coppernico and Tudor Gold all have exploration updates from their respective properties. This episode of Mining Stock Daily is brought to you by... Revival Gold is one of the largest pure gold mine developer operating in the United States. The Company is advancing the Mercur Gold Project in Utah and mine permitting preparations and ongoing exploration at the Beartrack-Arnett Gold Project located in Idaho. Revival Gold is listed on the TSX Venture Exchange under the ticker symbol “RVG” and trades on the OTCQX Market under the ticker symbol “RVLGF”. Learn more about the company at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠revival-dash-gold.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Vizsla Silver is focused on becoming one of the world's largest single-asset silver producers through the exploration and development of the 100% owned Panuco-Copala silver-gold district in Sinaloa, Mexico. The company consolidated this historic district in 2019 and has now completed over 325,000 meters of drilling. The company has the world's largest, undeveloped high-grade silver resource. Learn more at⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠https://vizslasilvercorp.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Equinox has recently completed the business combination with Calibre Mining to create an Americas-focused diversified gold producer with a portfolio of mines in five countries, anchored by two high-profile, long-life Canadian gold mines, Greenstone and Valentine. Learn more about the business and its operations at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠equinoxgold.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Integra Resources is a growing precious metals producer in the Great Basin of the Western United States. Integra is focused on demonstrating profitability and operational excellence at its principal operating asset, the Florida Canyon Mine, located in Nevada. In addition, Integra is committed to advancing its flagship development-stage heap leach projects: the past producing DeLamar Project located in southwestern Idaho, and the Nevada North Project located in western Nevada. Learn more about the business and their high industry standards over at integraresources.com

Have you ever experienced the frustration of a campaign goal increasing after your feasibility study was complete? What went wrong?In this episode, Greg shares the single most important estimate that determines whether your feasibility study will be accurate or woefully misleading.He also explains the common missing elements that cause organizations to get this number wrong in the first place.If you're planning a campaign, this is a conversation you don't want to miss

Fortuna Increases Gold Resource Estimate By 73% For Diamba Sud Project Fortuna Mining just had a big development at their Diamba Sud gold project, where they're nearing a construction decision at the midpoint of this year. To find out more, click to watch this video now! - To read the full press release from Fortuna, go to: https://fortunamining.com/news/fortuna-expands-indicated-mineral-resource-by-73-to-1-25-million-gold-ounces-diamba-sud-project-senegal/ - Get access to Arcadia's Daily Gold and Silver updates here: https://goldandsilverdaily.substack.com/ - Join our free email list to be notified when a new video comes out: click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - Follow Arcadia Economics on twitter at: https://x.com/ArcadiaEconomic - To get your copy of 'The Big Silver Short' (paperback or audio) go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ - #silver #silverprice #gold And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD) This video was sponsored by Fortuna Mining, and Arcadia Economics does receive compensation. For our full disclaimer go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/disclaimer-fortuna-mining/Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

Morningstar's Brett Husslein calls Walmart's (WMT) earnings beat “modest” and notes that while its guidance is conservative, it has a pattern of increasing its expectations for the year as it progresses. He walks through his highlights from the report, including global ad revenue growth and overall margins. However, he has a $62 fair value estimate, a steep drop from current levels. Brett argues that the market expects a lot from Walmart going forward compared to its historical valuation.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

This is a link post. I would like to thank David Thorstadt for looking over this. If you spot a factual error in this article please message me. The code used to generate the graphs in the article is available to view here. Introduction Say you are an organiser, tasked with achieving the best result on some metric, such as “trash picked up”, “GDP per capita”, or “lives saved by an effective charity”. There are several possible options of interventions you can take to try and achieve this. How do you choose between them? The obvious thing to do is look at each intervention in turn and make your best, unbiased estimate of how each intervention will perform on your metric, and pick the one that performs the best:Image taken from here Having done this ranking, you declare the top ranking program to be the best intervention and invest in it, expecting that that your top estimate will be the result that you get. This whole procedure is totally normal, and people all around the world, including people in the effective altruist community, do it all the time. In actuality, this procedure is not correct. The optimisers curse is [...] ---Outline:(00:26) Introduction(02:17) The optimisers curse explained simply(04:42) Introducing a toy model(08:45) Introducing speculative interventions(12:15) A simple bayesian correction(18:47) Obstacles to simple optimizer curse solutions.(22:08) How Givewell has reacted to the optimiser curse(25:18) Conclusion --- First published: February 11th, 2026 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/q2TfTirvspCTH2vbZ/the-best-cause-will-disappoint-you-an-intro-to-the Linkpost URL:https://open.substack.com/pub/titotal/p/the-best-cause-will-disappoint-you?r=1e0is3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Owen sits down with Haydn, founder of Price to Plan, who transitioned from running his own building company to managing a team of 25 staff and 18 estimators. Haydn shares the story of how a nine-month recovery from surgery forced him off the tools and into the office, where he realized most builders are reactive, stressed, and quoting jobs they actually hate. Haydn breaks down his "15 category" system for classifying project complexity and explains why he stopped hiring carpenters to do estimates and started hiring engineers instead. They also cover how to use "Love Letter" questions to filter out tire kickers and why getting a client to make a small time or emotional commitment upfront stops you from wasting weekends on free quotes.

702 Afternoons with Relebogile Mabotja is broadcast live on Johannesburg based talk radio station 702 every weekday afternoon. Relebogile brings a lighter touch to some of the issues of the day as well as a mix of lifestyle topics and a peak into the worlds of entertainment and leisure. Thank you for listening to a 702 Afternoons with Relebogile Mabotja podcast. Listen live on Primedia+ weekdays from 13:00 to 15:00 (SA Time) to Afternoons with Relebogile Mabotja broadcast on 702 https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj For more from the show go to https://buff.ly/2qKsEfu or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/DTykncj Subscribe to the 702 Daily and Weekly Newsletters https://buff.ly/v5mfetc Follow us on social media: 702 on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702 702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702 702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/ 702 on X: https://x.com/Radio702 702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio702 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dr. Sandeep Kumar Mayer in for Dr. Mitch Shulman who can be heard every weekday morning at 7:50 on The Andrew Carter Morning Show.

Why Appraisers Opine Value—They Do Not Estimate It Many people casually describe a real estate appraisal as an “estimate of value.” While common, this language misrepresents what appraisal actually is and why professional judgment remains essential. An appraisal is not an estimate of a hidden or pre-existing number. It is a reasoned value opinion formed under conditions of uncertainty. An estimate assumes that a true value already exists.  It can be approximated with better data or tools. Market value does not work that way. No single, correct value resides inside a property waiting to be discovered. Instead, market value reflects how typical buyers and sellers are most likely to behave.  This assumes a specific point in time, under specific conditions, with incomplete information. Real estate markets involve people, not machines.  Therefore, uncertainty cannot be eliminated. Every sale is unique. Different buyers, financing terms, timing, motivations, and negotiations can produce different outcomes without anyone acting irrationally. A sale price shows what happened, not what had to happen. This is why appraisers opine value.  They do not estimate it. A value opinion integrates data, analysis, experience, and judgment into a credible conclusion about probable market behavior. Data informs the process, but judgment drives it. No amount of automation, peer conformity, or form-filling can replace that responsibility. USPAP reflects this reality.  It emphasizes credibility over accuracy. Credible appraisal practice requires transparent reasoning, appropriate scope of work, and professional accountability.  Nothing in USPAP calls for mechanical precision. Understanding this distinction protects the integrity of the appraisal profession.  It also serves to clarify the appraiser's role, and reinforces why judgment remains non-delegable in valuation practice.

Most electricians think they're being helpful by quoting the one thing the homeowner asked for but in reality, that's the fastest path to burnout, low tickets, and lost trust.In this episode, we break down the silent killer in most electrical businesses: offering a single option.

In this solo Q&A episode, Axel answers listener-submitted questions covering three core pillars of successful multifamily investing: asset management execution, deal sourcing, and construction cost estimation.Axel breaks down how his team actually operates day-to-day: what gets reviewed on asset management calls, how CapEx decisions are prioritized post-close, and how renovation budgets are underwritten quickly and consistently across deals.This episode is designed for investors who want repeatable processes, not theory. Whether you're self-managing a small portfolio or overseeing third-party managers on larger assets, the frameworks shared here are immediately applicable.Join us as we dive into:How Axel structures weekly and bi-weekly asset management callsWhy the first 30–90 days after closing matter more than most investors realizeHow front-loading CapEx impacts tenant retention and long-term NOIWhen it makes sense not to renovate common areasHow often financials should be reviewed and what to look forA simple framework for estimating renovation costs by square footTypical light, medium, and heavy value-add renovation rangesHow property managers help validate construction budgetsThe acquisition channels Axel is actively using todayWhy being “easy to work with” still matters when sourcing dealsAre you looking to invest in real estate, but don't want to deal with the hassle of finding great deals, signing on debt, and managing tenants? Aligned Real Estate Partners provides investment opportunities to passive investors looking for the returns, stability, and tax benefits multifamily real estate offers, but without the work - join our investor club to be notified of future investment opportunities.Connect with Axel:Follow him on InstagramConnect with him on LinkedinSubscribe to our YouTube channelLearn more about Aligned Real Estate Partners

ContractorPriceGuide.com is launching February 1, 2026, giving contractors an instant online estimate builder that adds a pricing estimator to their website in minutes. Homeowners increasingly want pricing upfront, and this tool helps contractors capture leads, build trust, and reduce wasted appointments. Contractor Click City: Boca Raton Address: 1501 W Yamato Rd Unit 200D Website: https://www.contractor.click Phone: +1-305-902-4888

After a reduction of the apple forecast, Michael Schadler, president of the Washington Apple Commission, says there's one thing he'd like to say about this NEW crop.

Special live episode with hosts Taylor Dahlin and John Edwards. We're tracking the movements of some creepy little weirdos through downtown Minneapolis. We are asking our audience to guess the number of racist jellybeans who showed up for the anti-Somali protest on January 17. We hope you'll commit to donating at least $5-10 per jellybean, to help us raise money for the Cedar Riverside Protection Alliance (Venmo: CRwork26).Thank you to our on-the-ground Chud Watch reporter Ethan for his meticulous counting of racist jellybeans. And thanks to Minneapolis's most obscure elected official Eric Harris Bernstein, of the Board of Estimate and Taxation, for speaking with us.Watch: https://youtube.com/wedgeliveJoin the conversation: https://bsky.app/profile/wedge.liveSupport the show: https://patreon.com/wedgeliveWedge LIVE theme song by Anthony Kasper x LaFontsee

For review:1. US Announces (Gaza) Board of Peace Executive Committee; Includes Turkey & Qatar.2. Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday said authorities “must break the back of the seditionists” and blamed US President Donald Trump for “casualties” after the Islamic Republic's bloody crackdown on a protest wave against the country's clerical authorities.3. US President Donald Trump, for the first time, appeared to call on Saturday for the end of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's rule in Iran.“It's time to look for new leadership in Iran,” the President told Politico.4. Mossad director David Barnea was reported to arrive Friday in the US for consultations on Iran's deadly crackdown on protests and a potential American military response.5. Ukraine Delegation Arrives in US to Discuss Peace Agreement. Ukrainian negotiators will meet with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner and U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll.6. Troops from several European countries continued to arrive in Greenland on Thursday in a show of support for Denmark as talks among representatives of Denmark, Greenland and the U.S. highlighted “fundamental disagreement” over the future of the Arctic island.7. French President Emmanuel Macron on Saturday reaffirmed that "no intimidation or threat" could influence them following US President Donald Trump's announcement to impose new tariffs on eight European countries over the Greenland dispute.8. US Navy Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Daryl Caudle: US defense spending needs to be rebaselined to at least 4 percent of the nation's gross domestic product to enable the Navy to meet current readiness demands and to expand its fleet of warships to contend with future threats.9. The first Trump-class Battleship could cost up to about $21 billion if ordered today, with the price inching toward $22 billion if ordered in 2030, according to an estimate put forward by the Congressional Budget Office.

Bob Ortblad challenges the $13.6 billion cost estimate for the Interstate Bridge Replacement, comparing it to similar bridge projects and questioning assumptions about drilled shaft costs, construction risk, and alternatives such as an immersed tunnel. https://www.clarkcountytoday.com/opinion/letter-interstate-bridge-replacement-13-6-billion-estimate-is-too-low/ #Opinion #IBR #InterstateBridge #BridgeCosts #TaxpayerMoney #TransportationPolicy

EPISODE SUMMARYThis episode was recorded during the roofing boom—when being busy hid bad numbers. Today, work is slower and margins are tighter. Dave explains why job costing is now the difference between surviving and disappearing, and why “gut feel” leaves contractors broke even even when they're busy.EPISODE DESCRIPTIONThis interview was recorded a few years ago when the roofing market was on fire. Phones were ringing, jobs were everywhere, and being busy hid a lot of sins.Today it's different.Jobs are harder to get. Margins are thinner. And the contractors who don't truly understand their numbers—what jobs actually make money, what crews are profitable, what their real labor cost is—those companies won't survive this market.I hear it every week:“Dave, we're working like crazy… but there's never any money in the bank.”That's not bad luck. That's no job costing.Successful contractors job cost every job. Unsuccessful ones run on gut feel—and in this market, gut feel will put you out of business.In this conversation, Dave Sullivan sits down with construction finance expert Leslie Shiner to break down the simple job costing system profitable roofers use to protect margins and make real decisions.You'll LearnWhy “gut feel” lies—and cash proves itThe real reason busy roofers still have no moneyHow to calculate true labor cost (labor burden)Paid hours vs billable hours = labor utilizationWhy labor overruns destroy profit faster than materialsHow estimate vs actual fixes bad pricingHow to see which crews and job types make moneyTwo KPIs every roofer must trackTIMESTAMPS00:00 – Why this matters now02:20 – Gut feel vs real profit06:20 – What job costing actually means10:15 – True labor cost & labor burden17:30 – Labor utilization explained24:15 – Estimate vs actual the right way30:25 – Fixing downtime & productivity36:40 – Sales to production handoff40:35 – KPIs that matter44:15 – Improving your systemRESOURCESShiner Group: https://www.shinergroup.comFree Labor Burden Calculator (on Leslie's site)LINKSWork with Dave / Mentoring: https://theroofercoach.com/mentoring/Free resources: https://theroofercoach.com/resources/Connect with Dave!Text Dave: (510) 612-1450Free Strategy CallWant to grow a more profitable roofing business?Book a free strategy call with Dave here → davesullivan.as.me/free-strategy-callFree ResourceDownload your FREE 1-Page Business Plan for Roofing Contractors → theroofercoach.com/planWatch on...

In this episode of The Floral CEO Podcast, Jen walks you through a simple, real-world way to forecast your floral business revenue—using the bookings you already have (or want) to estimate your average wedding value, close rate, expenses, flower costs, labor, taxes, and ultimately how much you can pay yourself.Whether you're a newer florist or you've been in business for years but still feel unclear about money, this episode gives you a practical framework to stop guessing and start planning like a CEO.What You'll Learn (Key Takeaways)How to calculate your average wedding order value (AOV) so you can forecast incomeHow to use your close rate to estimate how many leads you need to hit your booking goalA simple “CEO math” approach to estimate:Flower/COGS percentagefixed monthly expenses (your “turn the lights on” costs)freelance laborsales tax/tax set-asidesprofit cushionowner payWhy guessing creates scarcity—and why forecasting creates confidenceHow to put this into a spreadsheet so you can make smarter decisions all yearThe Framework Jen Uses (Step-by-Step)1) Start with your funnel numbers (your real booking pipeline)Track these numbers:How many inquiries/leads you receiveHow many you respond to / have real conversations withHow many consults you bookHow many proposals you sendHow many you close (booked + contract signed)Close rate formula:Booked weddings ÷ proposals sent = close rateJen's note:If your close rate is very high, you may be underpriced (you're “too easy to book”).2) Calculate your average wedding value (AOV)Average wedding value formula:Total booked wedding revenue ÷ number of booked weddings = AOVThis gives you a usable “planning number” even if you have a few outliers.3) Forecast income based on your goal number of weddingsIf you want to go from 8 weddings to 20, you need 12 more weddings.Projected revenue formula:(Goal weddings × AOV) = projected gross revenue4) Estimate your cost of goods (flowers + supplies)If you're still learning sourcing/recipes, Jen recommends being conservative:30–35% as a planning range for flower costs (COGS)COGS formula:Projected revenue × COGS % = flower/supply costs5) Subtract fixed “lights-on” business expensesThese are costs like:websiteCanvaQuickBooks/bookkeeping softwareemail platformadmin tools/subscriptionsbusiness renewals/feesvehicle costs (if the business covers them)Fixed costs formula:Monthly fixed expenses × 12 = annual fixed expenses6) Add labor estimates (freelancers)Example logic from the episode:how many weddings need helphow many hours per weddinghourly ratenumber of staff-daysLabor formula:(Hours × rate × number of days/weddings) = labor cost7) Set aside taxes (don't get surprised later)Jen specifically mentions sales tax and recommends setting aside a percentage (often close to 10% in MN depending on location/rate, but use your local rate).Tax set-aside formula:Projected revenue × tax % = tax bucket8) Build profit into the business (a cushion)Profit is not “whatever is left.” It's intentional.Even starting with 5–7% gives you a cushion for growth:cooler purchaseeducationequipmentupgradesemergency bufferProfit formula:Net-after-costs × profit % = profit bucket9) What's left can become owner's compensation (pay yourself)After subtracting:COGSfixed costslabortaxesprofit…the remainder is what you can use to pay yourself (owner's comp), then plan for income taxes/self-employment taxes depending on your setup.Practical Action Steps (Do This This Week)Make a simple spreadsheet with columns for:inquiriesconsultsproposalsbookingsclose rateList your booked weddings and total revenue → calculate your AOVChoose your booking goal (ex: 20 weddings)Forecast gross revenue (goal × AOV)Pick conservative COGS % (30–35% if you're still dialing in recipes)Estimate annual “lights-on” expensesEstimate freelancer laborCreate 3 buckets in your business:tax set-asideprofit cushionowner payReview the final number and ask:“Is this enough for the life I want?”“What needs to change: price, volume, efficiency, or offers?”Mentioned in This EpisodeBook RecommendationProfit First by Mike Michalowicz (Jen's foundational framework for building profit and paying yourself consistently) https://a.co/d/1s9O2mm

In the first new 401(k) Specialist Pod(k)ast episode of 2026, Editor-in-Chief Brian Anderson sits down with Kelby Meyers, founder and CEO of Nestimate, to explore the evolving landscape of in-plan retirement income and the Nestimate Retirement Income Summit.Meyers discusses the upcoming second annual Nestimate Retirement Income Summit, shares insights on new initiatives at Nestimate—including its recently launched TDF-IQ analytics tool—and weighs in on what the Vanguard-TIAA target-date CIT with a built-in annuity could signal for the future of default investments. The conversation also examines how advisors and plan sponsors can better evaluate lifetime income options, manage fiduciary risk, and prepare for key developments shaping the retirement income market in 2026 and beyond.Key Insights1. Retirement Income Summit Offers Critical Education for AdvisorsThe second annual Estimate Retirement Income Summit aims to help plan advisors, sponsors, and home office professionals better understand and evaluate in-plan lifetime income solutions. With speakers like Matthew Eichman, Brendan McCarthy, and Spencer Look, the event emphasizes fiduciary clarity and objective analysis of evolving income strategies.2. Vanguard-TIAA Collaboration Marks a Market ShiftThe launch of a target date collective investment trust (CIT) by Vanguard and TIAA is seen as a turning point in the retirement income landscape. Vanguard's rare move after 22 years signals growing industry momentum toward embedding annuities in target date funds to ensure retirement income security.3. Technology and Recordkeeper Integration Drive AdoptionTools like Estimate's TDF-IQ offer fiduciaries an outcome-based framework for evaluating annuity-infused target date funds. Meanwhile, broader recordkeeper availability and support for annuity options could help solve portability challenges, accelerating adoption of lifetime income solutions in 2026.SEE ALSO:• Nestimate Introduces TDF Analyzer

Another year, another: new year, new us, and more this week at the Time Sink!HajjUmrahWhy It's Hard to Estimate and Easy to Mislead About Water Use by AI - Hank Green(0:00) Intro(0:43) How 2025 Went (20:23) Goals for 2026, Baby(1:01:28) Outro

Portland-based economist, co-founder of No More Freeways, and publisher of City Observatory Joe Cortright talks about the massive new cost estimate for the Interstate Bridge Replacement Program in this interview with BikePortland's Jonathan Maus. Links Joe's blog post with all the detailsVideo of this interview on YouTubeWillamette Week storyJoint Interim Committee on Transportation Oversight 1/14/26 meeting on "cost overruns"

Spencer and Lee wrap up their season 1 coverage of the Apple+ Series "Pluribus." While acknowledging there is *a lot* to like, Lee spends most of the podcast complaining. Spencer is spry and generally in good spirits. We're unsure if we'll cover season two (when it is released in 2045*)*- Estimate provided by SpencerLet us know what you think! facebook.com/mangumtalks or mangumtalkspodcasts@gmail.com

Neighbors for a Better Crossing criticizes the Interstate Bridge Replacement Program for promoting the idea of “giving away” the historic Interstate Bridges while failing to provide lawmakers and the public with updated cost estimates or modern seismic studies, arguing retrofit and preservation remain viable options. https://www.clarkcountytoday.com/opinion/opinion-ibr-promotes-giving-away-historic-interstate-bridges-while-withholding-cost-estimate-for-replacement/ #Opinion #InterstateBridge #IBR #TransportationPolicy #PacificNorthwest #HistoricPreservation #Infrastructure

State officials say they've not seen evidence to substantiate estimates from federal prosecutors that billions of dollars in Medicaid funds have been subject to fraud. The comments come a day after the U.S. Attorney's Office announced charges against people alleged to have defrauded state housing and autism programs.It's flu season, and with end-of-year celebrations happening, health officials are reminding Minnesotans to get vaccinated.This is an MPR News Evening update, hosted by Emily Reese. Theme music is by Gary Meister.  Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or RSS. 

Kenorland Minerals CEO, Zach Flood, joined us to discuss the published maiden mineral resource estimate published this morning for the Regnault gold deposit on the Frotet Project in Quebec. Kenorland holds a 4% NSR royalty across the entirety of the Project, which is 100% owned and operated by Sumitomo Metal Mining Canada. The MRE shows an inferred  resource of 14.5 Mt with an average grade of 5.47 g/t Au for 2.55 Moz of gold.

As we know there is an elevated interest in wild turkey science within the turkey hunting community, we are working to bring you numerous updates and research summaries from the 13th National Wild Turkey Symposium in Kansas City, Missouri. This episode includes a conversation with the presenter from the following paper included in the "Tools to Estimate Survival" session: "Evaluating camera survey methods for estimating wild turkey abundance" — Buckley et al (Presented by Nick Bakner) (https://wildlife.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wsb.1643) Additional guest includes Kyle Hand, Statewide Game Bird Specialist for the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department. While we were not able to sit down and have further conversations with all presenters or authors from the session about tools to estimate survival, please check out the following research papers: "Comparison of methods for estimating wild turkey poult survival estimates" — Quehl et al. (https://wildlife.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wsb.1617) "A framework for analyzing wild turkey sighting data" — Diefenbach et al. (https://wildlife.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wsb.1623) To view the full symposium agenda, visit www.wildturkeysymposium.org.

In Part 3 of our 10-part House Flipping 101 series, we're focusing on estimating repairs and making a smart, profitable offer. Before you submit any offers, it's essential to understand your exit strategy and how it affects your budget. We'll break down how to calculate your after-repair value (ARV), set your maximum offer price, and plan for unexpected repair costs that always come up. You'll also learn why an inspector, not a decorator, should guide your repair decisions, how to weigh selling versus renting, and why letting the mat, not emotions, drive your choices is key to a successful flip. Walk away with practical tools to make confident offers that protect your profits and keep your project on track. __________________________________________________________________ New videos drop multiple times every week!Make sure to hit SUBSCRIBE and tap the notification bell, so you never miss a video.If you're finding the content helpful or inspiring, it would mean the world if you shared it. Your support helps me reach more people and keeps this community growing! __________________________________________________________________ Big News! The Furniture Flipping Academy Is Now Only $79!Whether you're brand new to flipping, already established and ready to scale, or looking for additional income streams that don't require painting a single piece, the Academy was built for you. Inside, you'll get a complete library of industry-proven systems, pricing strategies, sourcing methods, and multiple ways to earn—so you can grow your income with confidence. A small investment today can open the door to big possibilities this year. Claim Your $79 Academy Access → https://learn.mycreativedays.com/academy __________________________________________________________________ New to My Creative Days? Welcome!I share creative inspiration, DIY tutorials, thrifting tips, furniture makeovers, and real-life projects across all my platforms. I'd love for you to come say hello and connect wherever you love to hang out: Explore the Blog:https://www.mycreativedays.com/Your go-to hub for DIY projects, thrifted makeovers, furniture makeovers, recipes, and creative inspiration. Listen to the Podcast:https://learn.mycreativedays.com/podcasts/my-creative-daysHonest conversations, creative motivation, and tons of tips. Follow on Pinterest:https://www.pinterest.com/mycre8tivedays/Fresh pins daily. DIY ideas, room inspiration, seasonal décor, and more. Join me on Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/mycreativedays/Daily stories, behind-the-scenes projects, thrift hauls, and real-time updates you won't see anywhere else. Hang out on Facebook:https://www.facebook.com/mycreativedaysEvery day, I post multiple times about my latest content, things I'm loving, favorite finds, deals, and more. __________________________________________________________________ Want to flip furniture successfully?Join my Furniture Flipping Academy:https://learn.mycreativedays.com/academyLearn everything from sourcing and pricing to scaling and earning in multiple ways (even beyond painting furniture). Get all my favorite links in one place:https://learn.mycreativedays.com/links __________________________________________________________________ Disclosure: Some links are affiliate links. I may earn a small commission at no extra cost to you. Thank you so much for supporting my content! Always read labels, follow manufacturer safety recommendations, and use proper safety equipment when working on DIY projects. You attempt any project at your own risk.

Today is Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025. The Brainerd Dispatch Minute is a product of Forum Communications Co. and is brought to you by reporters at the Brainerd Dispatch. Find more news throughout the day at BrainerdDispatch.com.

Last week, Magna Mining published the results for the mineral resource estimate for its Levack Mine, which contians copper, gold, platinum, palladium, silver and nickel. Greg Huffman joins us to discuss the results and helps break down the current numbers which are now at 6.1 million tonnes in the Indicated category at 3.5% copper equivalent ("CuEq"), comprised of 1.1% Cu, 1.4% Ni, 0.6 grams per tonne (g/t) Pt, 0.7 g/t Pd, 0.1 g/t Au, and 2.0 g/t Ag, as well as 5.2 million tonnes in the Inferred category at 3.6% CuEq (1.2% Cu, 1.4% Ni, 0.6 g/t Pt, 0.8 g/t Pd, 0.2 g/t Au, 2.1 g/t Ag).

Hello again Pacific War Week by Week listeners, it is I your dutiful host Craig Watson with more goodies from my exclusive patreon podcast series. This is actually going to be a two parter specifically looking at the failure and responsibility of Emperor Hirohito during the 15 year war Japan unleashed in 1931. Again a big thanks to all of you for listening all these years, you are all awesome.   Hello everyone, a big thanks to all of you who joined the patreon and voted for this to be the next episode, you all are awesome.    Now I realize very well when I jumped into my former patreon episode on Ishiwara Kanji, I fell into a rabbit hole and it became a rather long series. I wanted to get this one done in a single episode but its also kind of a behemoth subject, so I will do this in two parts: this episode will be on Hirohito's failure and responsibility in regards to the China War from 1931-1941. The next one will cover Hirohito's failure and responsibility in the world war from 1941-1945.   I am not going to cover the entire life of Hirohito, no what I want is to specifically cover his actions from 1931-1945. Nw I want you to understand the purpose of this episode is to destroy a narrative, a narrative that carried on from 1945-1989. That narrative has always been that Emperor Hirohito was nothing more than a hostage during the war years of 1931-1945. This narrative was largely built by himself and the United States as a means of keeping the peace after 1945. However upon his death in 1989 many meeting notes and diaries from those who worked close to him began emerging and much work was done by historians like Herbert P Bix and Francis Pike. The narrative had it that Hirohito was powerless to stop things, did not know or was being misled by those around him, but this is far from the truth. Hirohito was very active in matters that led to the horrors of the 15 year war and he had his own reasons for why or when he acted and when he did not.   For this episode to be able to contain it into a single one, I am going to focus on Hirohito's involvement in the undeclared war with China, that's 1931-1941. For those of you who don't know, China and Japan were very much at war in 1931-1937 and certainly 1937 onwards, but it was undeclared for various reasons. If you guys really like this one, let me know and I can hit Hirohito 1941-1945 which is honestly a different beast of its own.   For those of you who don't know, Hirohito was born on April 29th of 1901, the grandson of Emperor Meiji. Hirohito entered the world right at the dawn of a new era of imperial rivalry in Asia and the Pacific. According to custom, Japanese royals were raised apart from their parents, at the age of 3 he was placed in the care of the Kwamura family who vowed to raise him to be unselfish, persevering in the face of difficulties, respectful of the views of others and immune to fear. In 1908 he entered elementary education at the age of 7 and would be taught first be General Nogi Maresuke who notoriously did not pamper the prince. Nogi rigorously had Hirohito train in physical education and specifically implanted virtues and traits he thought appropriate for the future sovereign: frugality, diligence, patience, manliness, and the ability to exercise self-control under difficult conditions. Hirohito learnt what hard work was from Nogi and that education could overcome all shortcomings. Emperor Meiji made sure his grandson received military training.   When Emperor Meiji died in 1912, Hirohito's father, Yoshihito took the throne as emperor Taisho. Taisho for a lack of better words, suffered from cerebral meningitis at an early age and this led to cognitive deficiency's and in reality the Genro would really be running the show so to say. When Taisho took the throne it was understood immediately, Hirohito needed to be prepared quickly to take the throne. After Meiji's funeral General Nogi politely told the family he could no longer be a teacher and committed seppuku with his wife. He wrote a suicide letter explained he wanted to expiate his disgrace during the russo japanese war for all the casualties that occurred at Port Arthur, hardcore as fuck. Hirohito would view Nogi nearly as much of an iconic hero as his grandfather Meiji, the most important figure in his life.   Hirohito's next teacher was the absolute legendary Fleet Admiral Togo Heihachiro who would instill national defense policy into him. Hirohito would be taught Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahans theories as all the great minds were taught at the time. Now I know it sucks but I cant delve deep into all this. What I want you to envision is a growing Man, instilled with the belief above all else, the Kokutai was most important. The Kokutai was the national essence of Japan. It was all aspects of Japanese polity, derived from history, tradition and customs all focused around the cult of the Emperor. The government run by politicians was secondary, at any given time the kokutai was the belief the Emperor could come in and directly rule.   If you are confused, dont worry, I am too haha. Its confusing. The Meiji constitution was extremely ambiguous. It dictated a form of constitutional monarchy with the kokutai sovereign emperor and the “seitai” that being the actual government. Basically on paper the government runs things, but the feeling of the Japanese people was that the wishes of the emperor should be followed. Thus the kokutai was like an extra-judicial structure built into the constitution without real legal framework, its a nightmare I know.    Let me make an example, most of you are American I imagine. Your congress and senate actually run the country, wink wink lets forget about lobbyists from raytheon. The president does not have actual executive powers to override any and all things, but what if all Americans simply felt he did. Thus everyone acted in accordance to his wishes as they assumed them to be, thats my best way of explaining Japan under Hirohito.    Emperor Taisho dies in 1926, and Hirohito takes the throne ushering in the Showa Era. He inherited a financial crisis and a military that was increasingly seizing control of governmental policies. Hirohito sought to restore the image of a strong charismatic leader on par with his grandfather Meiji, which was sorely lacking in his father Taishos reign. He was pressured immediately by the Navy that the national sphere of defense needed to be expanded upon, they felt threatened by the west, specifically by the US and Britain who had enacted the Washington Naval Treaty. Hirohito agreed a large navy was necessary for Japan's future, he was a proponent of the decisive naval battle doctrine, remember his teacher was Togo.    From the very beginning Hirohito intensely followed all military decisions. In 1928 the Japanese covertly assassinated the warlord of Manchuria, Zhang Zuolin. The current prime minister Tanaka Giichi had performed a thorough investigation of the incident and presented his report to Hirohito on December 24th of 1928. He told Hirohito he intended to court martial the criminals, purge the army and re-establish discipline. However the rest of Tanaka's cabinet wished to allow the army to deal with the matter and quiet the entire thing down. Hirohito responded by stating he had lost confidence in Tanaka and admonished his report. Hirohito allowed the army to cover up the incident, he sought to have it hushed up as well. Thus Hirohito had indulged the army in its insubordination and the kwantung army officers now felt they could take matters into their own hands.   Also in 1928 the Tanaka cabinet failed to endorse the international protocol banning chemical and biological warfare. The next year the privy council, pressured by the military, failed to ratify the full geneva convention of prisoners of war. Hirohito in response began doing something Emperor Meiji never had done, he began to scold officials to force them to retire from positions. Tanaka Giichi was bullied out. Hirohito then stated his endorsement of Hamaguchi Osachi as Tanaka's successors.   Just a few months after Hamaguchi cabinet formed, Hirohito overrode the advice of his naval chief of staff and vice chief of staff, Admiral Kato and Vice Admiral Suetsugu. The Americans and British were hinting they might form a naval alliance against Japan if she did not abide by the Washington Conference mandates on naval tonnage. Kato and Suetsugu refused to accept the terms, but prime minister Hamaguchi stood firm against them. The navy leaders were outraged and accused Hamaguchi of signing the treaty without the support of the Navy General Staff thereby infringing upon the “emperor's right of supreme command”. Two months after signing the treaty, Hamaguchi was assassinated and upon learning of this Hirohito's first concern apparently was “that constitutional politics not be interrupted”. The military felt greatly emboldened, and thus began the age of the military feeling “its right of supreme command”. Generals and Admirals fought back against arms reduction talks, discipline within the officer corps loosened, things spiraled out of control. Alongside this came the increasing cult of the emperor, that they were all doing this in his name.   When rumors emerged of the emerging Mukden Incident in 1931, Hirohito  demanded the army be reigned in. Attempts were made, but on September 18th of 1931, Kwantung army officer detonated an explosion at Liut'iaokou north of Mukden as a false flag operation. The next day the imperial palace were given a report and Hirohito was advised by chief aide de camp Nara Takeji “this incident would not spread and if the Emperor was to convene an imperial conference to take control of the situation, the virtue of his majesty might be soiled if the decisions of such a conference should prove impossible to implement”. This will be a key theme in Hirohito's decision making, protect the kokutai from any threats.   As the Mukden incident was getting worse, the Kwantung officers began to demand reinforcement be sent from the Korea army. The current Wakatsuki cabinet met on the issue and decided the Mukden incident had to remain an incident, they needed to avoid a declaration of war. The official orders were for no reinforcements of the Korea army to mobilize, however the field commander took it upon his own authority and mobilized them. The army chief of staff Kanaya reported to Hirohito the Korea army was marching into Manchuria against orders. At 31 years of age Hirohito now had an excellent opportunity to back the current cabinet, to control the military and stop the incident from getting worse. At this time the military was greatly divided on the issue, politically still weak compared to what they would become in a few years, if Hirohito wanted to rule as a constitutional monarch instead of an autocratic monarch, well this was his chance. Hirohito said to Kanaya at 4:20pm on September 22nd “although this time it couldn't be helped, [the army] had to be more careful in the future”. Thus Hirohito accepted the situation as fait accompli, he was not seriously opposed to seeing his army expand his empire. If it involved a brief usurpation of his authority so bit, as long as the operation was successful. Within two weeks of the incident, most of Japan had rallied being the kwantung army's cause. Hirohito knew it was a false flag, all of what they had done. Hirohito planned the lightests punishments for those responsible. Hirohito then officially sanctioned the aerial strike against Chinchou, the first air attack since ww1.   A message had gone out to the young officers in the Japanese military that the emperors main concern was success; obedience to central command was secondary. After the Mukden incident Prime Minister Wakatsuki resigned in december after failing to control the army and failing to contain the financial depression. The new Priminister Inukai took to action requesting permission from Hirohito to dispatch battalions to Tientsin and a brigade to Manchuria to help the Kwantung army take Chinchou. Hirohito responded by advising caution when attacking Chinchou and to keep a close eye on international public perception. Nevertheless Chinchou was taken and Hirohito issued an imperial rescript praising the insubordinate Kwantung army for fighting a courageous self defense against Chinese bandits. In a few more years Hirohito would grant awards and promotions to 3000 military and civil officials involved in the Manchurian war. When incidents broke out in Shanghai in 1932 involved the IJN, Tokyo high command organized a full fledged Shanghai expeditionary force under General Shirakawa with 2 full divisions. But within Shanghai were western powers, like Britain and America, whom Hirohito knew full well could place economic sanctions upon Japan if things got out of hand. Hirohito went out of his way to demand Shirakawa settle the Shanghai matter quickly and return to Japan.   And thus here is a major problem with Hirohito during the war years. On one end with Manchuria he let pretty much everything slide, but with Shanghai he suddenly cracks the whip. Hirohito had a real tendency of choosing when he wanted to act and this influenced the military heavily. On May 15th of 1932, young naval officers assassinated prime minister Inukai at his office. In the political chaos, Hirohito and his advisors agreed to abandon the experiment in party cabinets that had been the custom since the Taisho era. Now Hirohito endorsed a fully bureaucratic system of policy making, cabinet parties would no longer depend on the two main conservative parties existing in the diet. When the diet looked to the genro as to who should be the next prime minister, Hirohito wrote up “his wishes regarding the choice of the next prime minister”. Loyal officials backed Hirohito's wishes, the cult of the emperor grew in power. To the military it looked like Hirohito was blaming the party based cabinets rather than insubordinate officers for the erosion of his own authority as commander in chief. The young military officers who already were distrustful of the politicians were now being emboldened further.    After Manchuria was seized and Manchukuo was ushered in many in the Japanese military saw a crisis emerge, that required a “showa restoration' to solve. There were two emerging political factions within the military, the Kodoha and Toseiha factions. Both aimed to create military dictatorships under the emperor. The Kodoha saw the USSR as the number one threat to Japan and advocated an invasion of them, aka the Hokushin-ron doctrine, but the Toseiha faction prioritized a national defense state built on the idea they must build Japans industrial capabilities to face multiple enemies in the future. What separated the two, was the Kodoha sought to use a violent coup d'etat to do so, the Toseiha were unwilling to go so far. The Kodoha faction was made up of junior and youthful officers who greatly distrusted the capitalists and industrialists of Japan, like the Zaibatsu and believed they were undermining the Emperor. The Toseiha faction were willing to work with the Zaibatsu to make Japan stronger. Hirohito's brother Prince Chichibu sympathized with the Kodoha faction and repeatedly counseled his brother that he should implement direct imperial rule even if it meant suspending the constitution, aka a show restoration. Hirohito believed his brother who was active in the IJA at the time was being radicalized. Chichibu might I add was in the 3rd infantry regiment under the leadership of Colonel Tomoyuki Yamashita.   This time period has been deemed the government by assassination period. Military leaders in both the IJA and IJN and from both the Kodoha and Toseiha began performing violence against politicians and senior officers to get things done.    A enormous event took place in 1936 known as the february 26 incident. Kodoha faction officers of the IJA attempted a coup d'etat to usher in a showa restoration. They assassinated several leading officials, such as two former prime ministers and occupied the government center of Tokyo. They failed to assassinate the current prime minister Keisuke Okada or take control over the Imperial palace. These men believed Japan was straying from the Kokutai and that the capitalist/industrialists were exploiting the people of the nation by deceiving the emperor and usurping his power. The only solution to them was to purge such people and place Hirohito as an absolute leader over a military dictatorship.    Now the insurrectionists failed horribly, within just a few hours they failed to kill the current prime minister, and failed to seize the Sakashita Gate to the imperial palace, thus allowing the palace to continue communicating with the outside, and they never thought about what the IJN might do about all of this. The IJN sent marines immediately to suppress them. The insurrectionists had planned to have the army minister General Kwashima who was a Kodoha backer, report their intentions to Hirohito who they presumed would declare a showa restoration. They falsely assumed the emperor was a puppet being taken hostage by his advisers and devoid of his own will.   At 5:40am on February the 26th Hirohito was awakened and informed of the assassinations and coup attempt. From the moment he learnt of this, he was outraged and demanded the coup be suppressed and something I would love to highlight is he also immediately demanded his brother Prince Chichibu be brought over to him. Why would this be important? Hirohito believed the insurrectionists might enlist his brother to force him to abdicate. Hirohito put on his army uniform and ordered the military to “end it immediately and turn this misfortune into a blessing”. Hirohito then met with Kwashima who presented him with the insurrectionists demands to “clarify the kokutai, stabilize national life and fulfill national defense, aka showa restoration”. Hirohito scolded Kwashima and ordered him to suppress the mutiny. On the morning of the 27th Hirohito declared administrative martial law on the basis of Article 8 of the Imperial Constitution, pertaining to emergency imperial ordinances. Formally he was invoking his sovereign power to handle a crisis. Hirohito displayed an incredible amount of energy to crush the mutiny as noted by those around him at the time. Every few hours he demanded reports to be given to him by top officials and at one point he was so angry he threatened to lead the Imperial Guard division himself to go out and quell it. Hirohito met with Chichibu and its alleged he told his brother to end any relationships he had with the Kodoha members. By february 29th, Hirohito had firmly crushed the mutiny, most of the ringleaders were arrested. In april they were court martialed secretly without even given a chance to defend themselves in court and 17 were executed by firing squad in July. As a result of it all, the Kodoha faction dissolved and the Toseiha faction reigned supreme.    On the morning of July 8th of 1937 came the Marco Polo Bridge incident, a nearly identical false flag operation to what occurred at Mukden in 1931. Hirohito's reaction was first to consider the possible threat of the USSR. He wondered if the communists would seize the opportunity to attack Manchukuo. This is what he said to Prime Minister Konoe and army minister Sugiyama “What will you do if the Soviets attack us from the rear?” he asked the prince. Kan'in answered, “I believe the army will rise to the occasion.” The emperor repeated his question: “That's no more than army dogma. What will you actually do in the unlikely event that Soviet [forces] attack?” The prince said only, “We will have no choice.” His Majesty seemed very dissatisfied.    Hirohito demanded to know what contingency plans existed. After this he approved the decision of the Konoe cabinet to move troops into Northern China and fixed his seal to the orders of dispatch. The emperor had tacitly agreed to it all from the start. With each action taken for the following months, Hirohito would explicitly sanction them after the fact. In his mind he kept thinking about a fight with the USSR, he believed he had no choice in the China matter. All of his top ranking officials like Sugiyama would tell him “even if war with China came… it could be finished up within two or three months”. Hirohito was not convinced, he went to Konoe, to imperial conferences, to other military officials to get their views. None convinced him but as Hirohito put it  “they agreed with each other on the time factor, and that made a big difference; so all right, we'll go ahead.”     Two weeks into the conflict, the kwangtung army and Korean army were reinforced by 3 divisions from Japan and on July 25th were reaching Beijing. What did the man who was not responsible in such decision making say? On July 27 Hirohito sanctioned an imperial order directing the commander of the China Garrison Force to “chastise the Chinese army in the Peking-Tientsin area and bring stability to the main strategic places in that region.” Hirohito wanted a killing blow to end the war, and thus he escalated the incident. Historian Fujiwara Akira noted “it was the [Konoe] government itself that had resolved on war, dispatched an army, and expanded the conflict,” and Hirohito had fully supported it”   Chiang Kai-shek abandoned northern China pulling into the Interior and unleashed a campaign in Shanghai to draw the Japanese into a battle showcased in front of western audiences. Chiang Kai-shek tossed the creme of his military all into Shanghai to make it as long and explosive as possible to try and win support from other great powers. On August 18 Hirohito summoned his army and navy chiefs for a pointed recommendation. The war, he told them, “is gradually spreading; our situation in Shanghai is critical; Tsingtao is also at risk. If under these circumstances we try to deploy troops everywhere, the war will merely drag on and on. Wouldn't it be better to concentrate a large force at the most critical point and deliver one overwhelming blow? Based on our attitude of fairness, Do you, have in hand plans for such action? In other words, do we have any way worked out to force the Chinese to reflect on their actions?”   The chiefs of staff returned 3 days later with an aerial campaign to break China's will to fight and strategic cities needed to be seized. Hirohito gave his sanction and on August 31st gave the order “for the Dispatch of the North China Area Army. [D]estroy the enemy's will to fight and wipe out resistance in the central part of Hepei Province,” Over the course of weeks Hirohito sanctioned 6 troop mobilizations to the Shanghai area where the fighting had bogged down. Then he sanctioned 3 divisions from Taiwan to Shanghai, but for units in northern Manchuria to stand guard firmly in case the USSR attacked. The entire time this was happening both China and Japan referred to it as an incident and not a real war lest either of them lose the backing of their great power allies. Japan needed oil, iron and rubber from America, China was likewise received materials from the USSR/America/Britain and even Germany.    By november the war was not going well and Hirohito had the Imperial Headquarters established within his palace as a means to exercise his constitutional role as supreme commander, the army and navy would act in concert. For a few hours in the morning a few days every week, the chiefs of staff, army and navy ministers and chiefs of operations would meet with Hirohito. At these imperial conferences Hirohito presided over and approved decisions impacting the war. This was Hirohito's device for legally transforming the will of the emperor into the will of the state. Hirohito not only involved himself, sometimes on a daily basis he would shape strategy and decide the planning, timing and so on of military campaigns. He even intervened in ongoing field operations. He monitored and occasionally issued orders through commanders to subordinate units. Now I can't go through the entire 1937-1945 war and showcase all the things he did but I will highlight things I think we're important.    On November 9th, the Shanghai battle was finally falling apart for the Chinese as they began a withdrawal to the Nanking area some 180 miles away. The Japanese forces chased them and for the first time were really coming into direct contact with Chinese civilians, when it came to Shanghai most had evacuated the areas. The Japanese burned, plundered and raped villages and towns as they marched towards Nanking. On december 1st, Hirohito's imperial HQ ordered the 10th army and Shanghai expeditionary force to close in on Nanking from different directions, a pincer maneuver. Prince Asaka took command of the Shanghai expeditionary force and General Matsui commanded the Central China Area Army consisted of the Shanghai force and 10th army. Asaka led the forces to assault the walled city of Nanking with a population estimated to be 4-5 hundred thousand and it would fall on December 13th. Was there an order to “rape Nanking”, no. The Imperial HQ did not order the total extermination of the Chinese in Nanking, they had ordered an encirclement campaign. However, the standing orders at this time were to take no prisoners. Once Nanking fell, the Japanese began to execute en massage military prisoners and unarmed troops who surrendered willingly. There was a orgy of rape, arson, pillage and murder. The horror was seen in Nanking and the 6 adjacent villages over the course of 3 months far exceeding any atrocities seen during the battle for Shanghai or even the march to Nanking. General Nakajima's 16th division on its first day in Nanking was estimated to have murdered 30,000 POWs. Estimate range insanely, but perhaps 200,000 POW's and civilians were butchered over the course of 6 weeks.   Prince Asaka the 54 year old grand uncle to Hirohito and other members of the Imperial Family commanded the attack on Nanking and supervised the horrors. 49 year old General Prince Higashikuni chief of the army air force alongside Prince Kan'in knew of the atrocities occurring. Army minister Sugiyama knew, many middle echelon officers of the Imperial HQ knew. Hirohito was at the top of the chain of command, there is no way he was not informed. Hirohito followed the war extensively, reading daily reports, questioned his aides. It was under his orders that his army “chastise China”, but did he show any concern for the breakdown of his army's discipline? There is no documented evidence he ordered an investigation, all we are met with as historians is a bizarre period of silence. Hirohito goes from supervising the war with OCD precision, to silence, then back to normal precision. Did Hirohito show anything publicly to show angry, displeasure or remorse, at the time he energetically began spurring his generals and admirals on their great victories and the national project to induce “Chinese self-reflection”.    On November 24th Hirohito gave an after the fact sanction to the decision of General Matsui to attack and occupy Nanking. Hirohito was informed the city was going to be bombarded by aircraft and artillery and he sanctioned that as well. That was basically him removing any restrictions on the army's conduct. On December 14th the day after Nankings fall, he made an imperial message to his chiefs of staff expressing his pleasure at the news of the city's capture and occupation. Hirohito granted General Matsui an imperial rescript for his great military accomplishments in 1938 and gave the order of the golden early to Prince Asaka in 1940. Perhaps Hirohito privately agonized over what happened, but publicly did nothing about the conduct of his armed forces, especially in regards to the treatment of POW's.   Emperor Hirohito was presented with several opportunities to cause cease-fires or peace settlements during the war years. One of the best possible moments to end it all came during the attack on Naking when Chiang Kai-sheks military were in disarray. Chiang Kai-shek had hoped to end the fighting by enticing the other great powers to intervene. At the 9 power treaty conference in Brussel in november of 1937, Britain and the US proposed boycotting Japan. However the conference ended without any sanctions being enacted upon Japan. The Konoe government and Imperial HQ immediately expanded the combat zone. Chiang Kai-shek in desperation accepted a previous offer by Germany to mediate. Oscar Trautmann, the German ambassador to China attempted to negotiate with Japan, but it failed. China was offered harsh terms; to formally recognize Manchukuo, cooperate with it and Japan to fight communism, permit the indefinite stationg of Japanese forces and pay war reparations.    On January 9th of 1938, Imperial HQ formed a policy for handling the China incident which was reported to Hirohito. Konoe asked Hirohito to convene an imperial conference for it, but not to speak out at it  “For we just want to formally decide the matter in your majesty's presence.” Konoe and Hirohito were concerned with anti expansionists within the army general staff and wanted to prevent German interference in Japanese affairs. On January 11th, the policy was showcased and adopted, there would be no peace until Chiang kai-shek's regime was dissolved and a more compliant regime followed. Hirohito presided over the conference in full army dress uniform and gave his approval. He sat there for 27 minutes without uttering a word, appearing to be neutral in the matter, though in fact he was firmly backing a stronger military policy towards China.    The Konoe cabinet inaugurated a second phase to the China incident, greatly escalating the war. By this point in time Japanese had seen combat casualties at 62,007 killed, 160,000 wounded. In 1939 it would be 30,081 killed, 55,970 wounded, then 15,827 killed and 72,653 wounded in 1940. Major cities were under Japanese control ranging from the north east and south. Chiang Kai-shek fled to Chongqing, the war was deadlocked without any prospect of victory in sight.    On July 11 of 1938, the commander of the 19th division fought a border clash with the USSR known to us in the west as the battle of Lake Khasan. It was a costly defeat for Japan and in the diary of Harada Kumao he noted Hirohito scolded Army minister Itagaki “Hereafter not a single soldier is to be moved without my permission.” When it looked like the USSR would not press for a counter attack across the border, Hirohito gave the order for offensives in China to recommence, again an example of him deciding when to lay down the hammer. Konoe resigned in disgrace in 1939 having failed to bring the China war to an end and being outed by his colleagues who sought an alliance with Germany, which he did not agree with. His successor was Hiranuma a man Hirohito considered a outright fascist. Hiranuma only received the job because he promised Hirohito he would not make enemies of Britain or the US by entering in a hasty alliance with Nazi Germany. However his enter prime ministership would be engulfed by the alliance question.   In May of 1939 there was another border clash with the USSR, the battle of Khalkhin Gol. This one was much larger in scale, involving armored warfare, aircraft and though it seems it was not used, the Japanese brought biological warfare weapons as well. The Japanese had nearly 20,000 casualties, it was an unbelievable defeat that shocked everyone. Hirohito refrained from punishing anyone because they technically followed orders based on a document “outline for dealing with disputes along the manchurian soviet border” that Hirohito had sanctioned shortly before the conflict arose.   In July of 1939, the US told Hiranuma's government they intended not to renew the US-Japan treaty of commerce and navigation. Until this point Roosevelt had been very lenient towards Japan, but now it looked to him war would break out in europe and he wanted Japan to know they could expect serious economic sanctions if they escalated things. Hirohito complained to his chief aide de camp Hata Shunroku on August 5th “It could be a great blow to scrap metal and oil”. Then suddenly as Japan was engaging in a truce with the USSR to stop the border conflict, Germany shocked the world and signed a nonaggression pact with them. This completely contravened the 1936 Japan-German anti-comintern pact. Hiranuma resigned in disgrace on august 28th.    Hirohito was livid and scolded many of his top officials and forced the appointment of General Abe to prime minister and demanded of him “to cooperate with the US and Britain and preserve internal order”. Then Germany invaded Poland and began a new European War. Abe's cabinet collapsed from the unbelievable amount of international actions by January 14th 1940. Hirohito appointed Admiral Yonai as prime minister  and General Tojo to vice army minister. As we have seen Hirohito played a active role appointing high level personnel and imposed conditions upon their appointments.    Hirohito dictated what Yonai was to do, who he was to appoint to certain positions so on and so forth. When a large part of the military were calling for an alliance with Germany, Hirohito resisted, arguing Japan should focus on the China war and not ally itself to Germany unless it was to counter the USSR. Three months passed by and Germany began invading western europe. Norway fell, Denmark fell, Luxembourg, Belgium, the netherlands and then France, it was simply stunning. While Japan had been locked in a deadlock against China, Germany was crushing multiple nations with ease, and this had a large effect on asia. Britain, France and the Netherlands could not hope to protect their holdings in asia. But Hirohito kept pressuring Yonai not to begin any talks of an alliance, and the military leaders forced Yonai's cabinet to collapse.    So Hirohito stood by while Hiranuma, Abe and Yonai met each crisis and collapses. He watched as the China war went nowhere and the military was gradually pushing for the Nanshin-ron doctrine to open a southern war up with the west. Not once did he make a public effort on his lonesome to end the war in China. Japan's demands of China were unchanged, relations with the west were getting worse each day. The China war was undeclared, hell it was from the Japanese viewpoint “chastising China”. Japan was no respecting any rules of war in China, atrocities were performed regularly and for that Hirohito shared responsibility. For he alone was free to act in this area, he needed to act, but he did not. He could have intervened and insisted on respecting the rules of war, especially in regards to POW's and the results could have been dramatically different. Hirohito bore direct responsibility for the use of poison gas upon Chinese and Mongolian combatants and non combatants even before the undeclared war of 1937.    Then on July 28th of 1937 Hirohito made his first directive authorizing the use of chemical weapons which was transmitted by the chief of the army general staff prince Kan'in. It stated that in mopping up the Beijing-Tientsin area, “[Y]ou may use tear gas at suitable times.” Then on September 11th of 1937 he transmitted again through Kan'in the authorization to deploy special chemical warfare units in Shanghai. Gas weapons were one weapon the imperial HQ, aka Hirohito held effective control over throughout the China war. Front line units were never free to employ it at their own discretion, it required explicit authorization from the imperial HQ. During the Wuhan offensive of August to October 1938, imperial HQ authorized the use of poison gas 375 separate times. Hirohito authorized on May 15th of 1939 the carrying out of field studies of chemical warfare along the Manchukuo-soviet border.  In 1940 Hirohito sanctioned the first experimental use of bacteriological weapons in China, though there is no documented evidence of this, given the nature of how he micro managed everything it goes without saying he would have treated it the same as the poison gas. He was a man of science, a person who questioned everything and refused to put his seal on orders without first examining them. Imperial HQ directives went to unit 731 and as a rule Hirohito overlooked them. There again is no documents directly linking him to it, but Hirohito should be held responsibility for strategic bombing campaigns performing on cities like Chongqing. Alongside such horror Hirohito sanctioned annihilation campaigns in China. Such military campaigns were on the scale of what occurred at Nanking. Take for example the Hebei offensive which saw the infamous “three alls policy, burn all, kill all, steal all”.    Before Pearl Harbor and the ushering in of the war against the west, look at the scene that had unfolded. China and Japan were not officially at war until December of 1941. Not to say it would have been easy by any means, but look at the countless opportunities the man, emperor, so called god if you will, held in his hands to stop it all or at the very least stop escalating it. Why did he not do so? To protect the Kokutai. Above all else, the role and survival of the emperor's divinity over the people of Japan was always at the forefront of his mind. He did what he thought was always necessary to thwart threats internal and external. He allowed his military to do horrible things, because they did so in his name, and likewise they were a threat to him. I know its abrupt to end it like this, but for those of you who perhaps say to yourself “well he really was powerless to stop it, they would have killed him or something”, who chose suddenly to intervene in 1945 and made the decision to surrender?

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Interview with Rebecca de Mornay - On the phone with David Serero - The Culture News. Alec Baldwin John Patrick Shanley Benefit for The Lee Strasberg Creative Center Premiere of Five New One Act Plays “Outcasts” Erick Betancourt, Rebecca De Mornay, Ivette Dumeng, Susie Essman, Jeff Garlin, Jamie Hector, Alessandra Mesa, Debra Messing, Sidney Williams Tuesday, November 18, 2025, at 7:00 PM TBN Theater, 111 East 15th Street, New York, NY New York, NY (November 5, 2025) — Alec Baldwin joins playwright John Patrick Shanley (Moonstruck, Doubt) for the world premiere of Outcasts, a benefit reading in support of The Lee Strasberg Creative Center. The one-night-only event will feature five new one-act plays written by Shanley and will take place Tuesday, November 18, 2025, at the TBN Theater. “My acting career literally began in classrooms with Geoffrey Horne and Marcia Haufrecht at the Strasberg Institute on 15th Street,” said Alec Baldwin. “I will always be grateful that I began my career here. Strasberg gave me a technique built upon a foundation of truth. Among the great playwrights working today, John Patrick Shanley's writing, with both the humor and the drama marbled together, demands a focus and agility that I acquired largely through Strasberg. I have long admired Shanley's remarkable work and I am grateful for the opportunity to celebrate that work while benefiting my theatrical alma mater.” “Each of these new pieces gives voice to the overlooked, the unheard, the exiled among us—the true outcasts,” said John Patrick Shanley. “It's a challenging and exciting evening featuring actors who are fearless in their work.” The evening features five new works written by Shanley: The Upside Down Man with Alec Baldwin and Alessandra Mesa; The Bonnet with Jeff Garlin and Susie Essman; The Estimate with Debra Messing and Ivette Dumeng, who also serves as co-director for the evening alongside Lori Kee; Heartbreak with Sidney Williams, Jamie Hector, and Erick Betancourt; and Last Night in the Garden I Saw You with Baldwin and Rebecca De Mornay. Actor Ivan Hernandez (Company, Chicago Med) will serve as master of ceremonies. Accompanied by a three-piece jazz band, Hernandez will open the program, setting the tone for a night of sharp, unpredictable theater. Four of the evening's performers—Alec Baldwin, Rebecca De Mornay, Jamie Hector and Alessandra Mesa—are alumni of The Lee Strasberg Theatre & Film Institute. Outcasts begins at 7:00 p.m. at TBN Theater, 111 East 15th Street, New York, NY. Proceeds from Outcasts will support the Center's work to benefit the future of young artists in the theater. Tickets and donations are available at https://givebutter.com/outcasts. About The Lee Strasberg Creative Center The Lee Strasberg Creative Center was founded by Anna Strasberg in 1977 to share the legacy of the "Father of Method Acting" with future generations. It is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization that offers an extensive scholarship program for young actors to train at The Lee Strasberg Theatre & Film Institute, commissions for early-career playwrights, directing fellowships, community outreach programs and cultural collaborations. It also maintains the archive of Lee Strasberg's lectures and teaching and historical resources.

You're frozen. The deadline's approaching. You don't have all the data. Everyone wants certainty. You can't give it. Sound familiar? Maybe it's a hiring decision with three qualified candidates and red flags on each one. Or a product launch where the market research is mixed. Or a career pivot where you can't predict which path leads where. You want more information. More time. More certainty. But you're not going to get it. Meanwhile, a small group of professionals—poker players, venture capitalists, military strategists—consistently make better decisions than the rest of us in exactly these situations. Not because they have more information, but because they've mastered something fundamentally different: they think in probabilities, not certainties. I learned this the hard way—I once created a biometric security algorithm that the NSA reverse-engineered, where I mastered probabilistic thinking perfectly in the technology, then made every wrong bet with the business around it. By the end of this episode, you'll possess a powerful mental toolkit that transforms how you approach uncertainty. You'll learn to estimate likelihoods without perfect data, update your beliefs as new information emerges, make confident decisions when multiple uncertain factors collide, and act decisively even when you can't guarantee the outcome. This is the difference between paralysis and power, between gambling recklessly and betting wisely. What Is Probabilistic Thinking? But what does probabilistic thinking actually entail? At its core, it's the practice of reasoning in terms of likelihoods rather than absolutes—thinking in percentages instead of yes-or-no answers. Instead of asking "Will this work?" you ask "What are the odds this will work, and what are the consequences if it doesn't?" This approach acknowledges that the future is uncertain and that every decision carries risk. By quantifying that uncertainty and weighing it against potential outcomes, you make smarter choices even when you can't eliminate the unknown. The Cost of Demanding Certainty Today's world punishes those who demand certainty before acting. Research from Oracle's 2023 Decision Dilemma study—which surveyed over 14,000 employees and business leaders across 17 countries—found that 86% feel overwhelmed by the amount of data available to them. Rather than clarity, all that information creates decision paralysis. And the paralysis has real consequences. When we can't be certain, we freeze. We endlessly research options, seeking that final piece of data that will guarantee success. We postpone critical decisions, waiting for perfect information that never arrives. Meanwhile, opportunities pass us by, problems grow worse, and competitors who are comfortable with uncertainty move forward. This demand for certainty doesn't just slow us down—it exhausts us. Decision fatigue sets in as we agonize over choices, draining our mental resources until we either make impulsive decisions or avoid deciding altogether. Neither outcome serves us well. What Certainty-Seeking Actually Costs You Here's what it looks like in real life: You're the VP of Marketing. Your CMO wants a decision on next quarter's campaign budget by Friday. You have three agencies to choose from, each with strengths and weaknesses. So you ask for more data. Customer focus groups. Competitive analysis. Agency references. By Wednesday you're drowning in spreadsheets and conflicting opinions. Friday arrives. You still can't be certain which choice is right, so you ask for an extension. Two weeks later, you finally pick one—not because you're confident, but because you're exhausted and the CMO is furious about the delay. The campaign launches late. You've burned political capital. And you still have no idea if you made the right choice. Meanwhile, your competitor's marketing VP looked at the same decision, spent two hours assessing the probabilities, and launched on time. If it works, great. If it doesn't, they'll pivot. They didn't need certainty. They needed enough information to make a good bet. That's the tax you pay for demanding certainty: missed timing, exhausted teams, and decisions made from fatigue rather than judgment. Meanwhile, a small group of professionals thrives in these exact conditions. Professional poker players like Annie Duke understand that good decisions sometimes lead to bad outcomes and bad decisions sometimes get lucky—so they judge their choices by process, not results. Venture capitalists often see that most of their investments will fail, but they bet anyway because one success out of twenty can return the entire fund. Military strategists make life-and-death decisions with incomplete intelligence, not because they're reckless, but because waiting for perfect information means defeat. The difference isn't access to better information. It's the willingness to act on probabilities rather than certainties. How To Make Better Decisions When Nothing Is Certain So how do you actually develop this skill? It's more accessible than you might think. Here are clear strategies to transform how you process uncertainty and make decisions. Think in Ranges, Not Points The first shift in probabilistic thinking is abandoning single-number estimates for ranges of possibility. When most people predict an outcome, they pick one number: "Sales will be $500,000 next quarter" or "This project will take three months." But the world doesn't work that way. Every estimate carries uncertainty, and pretending otherwise sets you up for failure. Professional forecasters think differently. They don't ask "What will happen?" They ask "What's the range of plausible outcomes, and how likely is each?" This approach forces you to acknowledge what you don't know while still making useful predictions. Watch a professional poker player deciding whether to call a bet. They're not thinking "Do I have the best hand?" They're thinking "Given what I've seen, maybe 35% chance I have the best hand, 20% chance my opponent is bluffing, 45% chance they've got me beat." They act on probabilities, not certainties. Steps to implement range thinking: Replace point estimates with probability ranges. When making any prediction, state a range instead of a single number. Instead of "We'll close 50 deals," say "We'll likely close 40-60 deals, with a small chance of 30-70."   Assign rough percentages to your ranges. You don't need mathematical precision—just honest self-assessment. Estimate: "60% chance of 40-50 deals, 30% chance of 50-60, 10% chance outside that range." This forces you to think about likelihood, not just possibility.   Track your estimates against actual outcomes. Keep a simple log of your predictions and what actually happened. Over time, you'll discover if you're consistently over-optimistic, over-cautious, or actually well-calibrated. This feedback loop is how you improve.   Update Your Beliefs with New Evidence One of the most powerful aspects of probabilistic thinking is treating your beliefs as hypotheses, not conclusions. When new information emerges, skilled thinkers update their probability estimates rather than clinging to their original position. This practice—called Bayesian updating after the mathematician Thomas Bayes—is how professionals stay accurate in changing environments. Consider a doctor diagnosing a patient with intermittent chest pain. Initially, based on the patient's age and health history, she estimates a 15% probability of heart disease. Then the EKG comes back with minor abnormalities—not definitive, but concerning. She updates her estimate to 35%. Blood work shows elevated cardiac markers. Now she's at 65%. Each piece of evidence shifts the probability, but none gives absolute certainty. She doesn't wait for 100% certainty to act—she orders more tests and starts precautionary treatment based on her updated 65% estimate. That's Bayesian thinking in action. Financial firms continuously adjust their models as new data arrives. Weather forecasters update storm predictions hourly. In my own work building biometric security systems, we updated our false acceptance and rejection rates constantly—but I failed to apply that same updating framework to the business model itself. The enemy of updating is confirmation bias—our tendency to accept information that supports our existing beliefs and dismiss information that contradicts them. When you're emotionally invested in being right, you'll unconsciously filter evidence to protect your original view. Steps to update your thinking: Start with a baseline probability before you have strong evidence. If you're launching a new product, estimate: "Based on what I know about similar products, there's maybe a 40% chance this succeeds." That's your prior—your starting point before specific evidence comes in.   When new information arrives, ask: "How much should this change my estimate?" Not all evidence is equal. Strong evidence—like actual customer purchases—should move your probability significantly. Weak evidence—like one person's opinion—should barely budge it.   Separate the quality of a decision from the quality of the outcome. This is crucial. A good decision based on sound probabilities can still result in a bad outcome due to chance. Conversely, a terrible decision can get lucky. Judge yourself on whether you correctly assessed the probabilities and acted accordingly, not on whether you "got it right" this time.   Actively seek disconfirming evidence. Force yourself to look for information that contradicts your current view. If you think your strategy will work, deliberately search for reasons it might fail. This counteracts confirmation bias and gives you a more accurate probability estimate.   Make Decisions by Expected Value Probabilistic thinking isn't just about estimating odds—it's about acting on them. The concept of expected value gives you a framework for making decisions when outcomes are uncertain. Expected value multiplies each possible outcome by its probability, then adds them together. It's how professionals decide whether a bet is worth taking. Here's why it matters: sometimes a decision with a low probability of success is still the right choice if the potential payoff is enormous. Venture capitalists know that perhaps 18 out of 20 startups in their portfolio will fail or return little money. But that one company that becomes the next Airbnb or Uber can return 100x their investment—more than covering all the losses. That's positive expected value thinking. Conversely, decisions that seem "safe" can be terrible bets. Playing it safe might give you a 90% chance of mediocre success, but if that 10% downside risk includes catastrophic consequences, the expected value might be negative. This is why you buy insurance: the probability of your house burning down is low, but the cost if it happens is devastating. Think about a parent choosing between schools for their child. Public school is free but overcrowded. Private school costs $20K/year with smaller classes but adds an hour of family stress daily. Charter school is free with innovative curriculum but it's a first-year program with unknowns. There's no guarantee. The better question is expected value: "Given the probabilities and what matters most to us—academic success, family time, financial stability—which bet has the best expected outcome?" Steps for expected value decision-making: List all plausible outcomes for your decision, not just the best and worst. For a job offer, don't just think "great career move" versus "terrible mistake." Consider: "Modest improvement (40%), breakthrough opportunity (20%), lateral move (25%), step backward (10%), complete disaster (5%)."   Assign a rough value to each outcome. This doesn't have to be money—it can be career satisfaction, life quality, time saved, or any currency that matters to you. The key is making the values comparable across outcomes.   Multiply each outcome's value by its probability, then add them up. This gives you the expected value. If the positive expected value option has meaningful downside risk, ask: "Can I survive the worst case?" If yes, it's usually the right bet.   Remember: expected value is about long-term results, not single instances. If you make a high expected value bet and it fails, that doesn't mean you were wrong. Over many decisions, following expected value will outperform any other approach. Trust the math, not the emotional reaction to one outcome.   Practice: The Probability Forecast Journal A practical way to develop your probabilistic thinking is to keep a Probability Forecast Journal. This exercise builds calibration—your ability to accurately assess how confident you should be in your predictions. Here's how to implement it: Choose three areas where you regularly make predictions. These could be work-related (project timelines, sales numbers), personal (will your flight be delayed), or current events (election outcomes).   Each week, make five specific, testable predictions. Write down the prediction and assign a probability. For example: "70% chance the client approves our proposal by Friday" or "85% chance our website traffic increases this month."   After each prediction resolves, record the actual outcome. Did the thing you said had a 70% chance of happening actually happen? Don't judge yourself harshly on any single prediction—remember that a 70% prediction should fail about 30% of the time.   Monthly, analyze your calibration. Look at all predictions where you said "70% confident"—did roughly 70% of them come true? If you're consistently overconfident, you need to adjust. If you're underconfident, you're being too cautious.   The goal isn't perfection—it's calibration. After several months of this practice, you'll notice your ability to assess probabilities improves dramatically. You'll know when you're 60% sure versus 90% sure, and you'll make better decisions as a result. The Rewards Mastering probabilistic thinking is a journey, not a destination. It requires practice, humility about what you don't know, and the courage to act despite uncertainty. But the rewards are substantial. When you think probabilistically, you make faster decisions because you're not paralyzed waiting for certainty that will never come. You become more resilient to failure because you understand that good decisions sometimes have bad outcomes—and that's not a reason to change your approach. You'll find yourself taking calculated risks that others avoid, capturing opportunities that demand action before perfect information arrives. You'll waste less time second-guessing yourself because you've already thought through the probabilities and made your peace with uncertainty. You'll explain your decisions more clearly to others because you can articulate not just what you think will happen, but how confident you are and why. Most importantly, you'll stop confusing confidence with correctness. In a world obsessed with appearing certain, probabilistic thinkers have the courage to say "I'm 65% sure, and that's enough to act." That honesty—with yourself and others—is the foundation of better judgment. Want to see what happens when you master probabilistic thinking in one domain but fail to apply it in another? I wrote about my experience creating a fingerprint recognition algorithm that the NSA reverse-engineered—where I got the technical probabilities right and the business bets completely wrong. [Read the full story here](link to substack). The future will always be uncertain. The question is whether you'll be paralyzed by that uncertainty or empowered by it.   If this helped you think differently about decision-making, I'd really appreciate it if you'd hit the like button and subscribe—it genuinely helps others find this content through the algorithm. And click that notification bell so you don't miss the next episode in this series. If you want to go deeper, I share the behind-the-scenes thinking, mistakes, and extended stories over on Studio Notes on Substack. Paid subscriptions help cover the costs of the team who makes all of this possible—the editing, research, and production work that gets these episodes to you each week. None of it comes to me; it all goes to supporting them. Without this team, there'd be no podcast, no YouTube channel, no articles. So if you find value in this work, that's a meaningful way to keep it going. The future will always be uncertain. The question is whether you'll be paralyzed by it or empowered by it.   Sources Cited In This Episode Oracle Decision Dilemma Study (2023) - Survey of 14,000+ employees and business leaders across 17 countries on data overwhelm and decision paralysis. https://www.oracle.com/uk/cloud/decision-dilemma/ Thinking in Bets - Duke, A. (2018). Portfolio. On judging decisions by process, not outcomes. https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/552885/thinking-in-bets-by-annie-duke/ How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning Without Instruction: Frequency Formats - Gigerenzer, G. & Hoffrage, U. (1995). Psychological Review, 102(4), 684-704. On updating beliefs with evidence. Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk - Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1979). Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291. Prospect Theory foundations.

Heye Daun, CEO of Koryx Copper, discusses the company's recent drilling results, geological modeling, and the broader copper market dynamics. Heye emphasizes the importance of systematic geological work and the integration of historical data to enhance the incoming and updated mineral resource estimate. The conversation also touches on the operational benefits of operating in Namibia, the geopolitical factors affecting the copper market, and recent political changes in Namibia.

Trevor interviews Gilbert Clark, CEO of Meridian Mining, about the progress and future plans for the Cabasal VMS project in Brazil. They discuss the completion of feasibility study drilling, the impact of commodity prices on project viability, and the exploration potential of the surrounding areas. Gilbert shares insights on the company's focus on near-term production and the importance of project financing as they move forward.

October 20, 2025; 6pm: Organizers for the nationwide "No Kings" protests estimate that over 7 million people attended over the weekend. Plus, James Comey files motions to dismiss the criminal case against him. Melissa Murray reports and is joined by Molly Jong-Fast, David Litt, Maya Wiley and Rep. Brendan Boyle. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 1846: Kalen Bruce breaks down the complex process of estimating startup costs into a practical, strategic approach for new entrepreneurs. By categorizing expenses, leveraging online tools, and maintaining conservative projections, he shows how to build a realistic financial foundation while avoiding unnecessary debt and cultivating resilience in the face of uncertainty. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://moneyminiblog.com/business/estimate-costs-of-starting-a-business/ Quotes to ponder: "Interest rates are a dark cloud that looms over your business and the last thing you should do is ignore it." "Plan changes as the financial winds turn, and that is the name of the game if you want to succeed." "Always aim for a conservative assessment. It will help you secure what is called a financial cushion that covers up to one year of business expenses." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 1846: Kalen Bruce breaks down the complex process of estimating startup costs into a practical, strategic approach for new entrepreneurs. By categorizing expenses, leveraging online tools, and maintaining conservative projections, he shows how to build a realistic financial foundation while avoiding unnecessary debt and cultivating resilience in the face of uncertainty. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://moneyminiblog.com/business/estimate-costs-of-starting-a-business/ Quotes to ponder: "Interest rates are a dark cloud that looms over your business and the last thing you should do is ignore it." "Plan changes as the financial winds turn, and that is the name of the game if you want to succeed." "Always aim for a conservative assessment. It will help you secure what is called a financial cushion that covers up to one year of business expenses." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week's episode, we discuss Tesla's Q3 delivery estimate, the launch of FSD v14, Lucid Gravity ramp-up, and more. Today's episode is brought to you by Climate XChange, a nonpartisan nonprofit working to help states pass effective, equitable climate policies. The nonprofit just kicked off its 10th annual EV raffle, where participants have multiple opportunities to win their dream model. Visit CarbonRaffle.org/Electrek to learn more. The show is live every Friday at 4 p.m. ET on Electrek's YouTube channel. As a reminder, we'll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in. After the show ends at around 5 p.m. ET, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps: Apple Podcasts Spotify Overcast Pocket Casts Castro RSS We now have a Patreon if you want to help us avoid more ads and invest more in our content. We have some awesome gifts for our Patreons and more coming. Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the podcast: Tesla (TSLA) is having its first and last good quarter in a while Tesla (TSLA) is down 22% in Europe while EVs were up 30% Tesla complains about EPA's new policy its CEO paid more than $200 million for Tesla is finally launching FSD v14 and Elon Musk says it ‘feels sentient' Tesla influencers tried Elon Musk's coast-to-coast self-driving, crashed before 60 miles Lucid (LCID) ramps up Gravity production, massive numbers spotted in drone flyover Tesla co-founder invests in tiny electric truck startup TELO Xiaomi officially sets up shop in the EU with new R&D Design Center The new Mercedes CLA L EV launched in China, starting at only $36,000 with serious range Here's the live stream for today's episode starting at 4:00 p.m. ET (or the video after 5 p.m. ET: https://www.youtube.com/live/KKJDXqLUKZI

HOUR 3- Jake's Car Insurance Estimate, The Dank Tank and MORE full 2354 Tue, 16 Sep 2025 15:42:00 +0000 oW06kKg35FO90RzcXnPk8vlJQOAFxf9i society & culture Klein/Ally Show: The Podcast society & culture HOUR 3- Jake's Car Insurance Estimate, The Dank Tank and MORE Klein.Ally.Show on KROQ is more than just a "dynamic, irreverent morning radio show that mixes humor, pop culture, and unpredictable conversation with a heavy dose of realness." (but thanks for that quote anyway). Hosted by Klein, Ally, and a cast of weirdos (both on the team and from their audience), the show is known for its raw, offbeat style, offering a mix of sarcastic banter, candid interviews, and an unfiltered take on everything from culture to the chaos of everyday life. With a loyal, engaged fanbase and an addiction for pushing boundaries, the show delivers the perfect blend of humor and insight, all while keeping things fun, fresh, and sometimes a little bit illegal. 2024 © 2021 Audacy, Inc. Society & Culture False https://player.amperwavepodcast

Your agent just sent you a killer real estate deal with enormous upside, but it needs a bit of work. Here's exactly how to estimate renovation costs, so you know you're buying a property with a juicy margin instead of one that will just break even. Whether you're renovating a rental property, planning to refinance after the rehab with the BRRRR method, or flipping a house for some quick cash, we'll give you the formula to run your renovation numbers FAST.  We're back with real estate investor questions from the BiggerPockets Forums. First up: how to estimate rehab costs on a distressed property. And, if the renovation costs are high, is the rehab still worth it? Then, once you've got your rental portfolio, when should you hire property management? Your agent wants you to sign an exclusivity agreement so you only work with them; here's when we will (and definitely won't) do it. Finally, we share a way to access home equity WITHOUT refinancing at a higher rate and killing your cash flow. Got a question? Need answers? Share your real estate investing situation on the BiggerPockets Forums.  In This Episode We Cover How to estimate rehab costs and the price-per-square-foot guidelines to follow Accessing home equity without refinancing (a way better option in 2025) How much money should you make on a flip? Why even $40,000 may be too low When to hire a property manager and signs that one will actually take care of your tenants/property  Whether or not to sign an exclusivity agreement with your real estate agent  And So Much More! Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/real-estate-1136 Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠advertise@biggerpockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices