Probable Causation

Crystal Yang talks about her research on the accreditation of jail-based health care. “The Hidden Health Care Crisis Behind Bars: A Randomized Trial to Accredit U.S. Jails” by Marcella Alsan and Crystal Yang. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Impact of hospital accreditation on quality improvement in healthcare: A systematic review” by Mohammad J. Alhawajreh, Audrey S. Paterson, and William J. Jackson. “Improvement in quality of hospital care during accreditation: A nationwide stepped-wedge study" by Søren Bie Bogh, Anne Mette Falstie-Jensen, Erik Hollnagel, René Holst, Jeffrey Braithwaite, and Søren Paaske Johnsen. “Evaluating Accreditation” by Charles D. Shaw. "Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility" by Elisa Jácome. Probable Causation Episode 60: Elisa Jácome. "In-Kind Welfare Benefits and Reincarceration Risk: Evidence from Medicaid" by Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague. Probable Causation Episode 103: Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague. "Access to health Care and Criminal Behavior: Evidence form the ACA Medicaid Expansions" by Jacob Vogler. "The Effect of Medicaid Expansion on Crime Reduction: Evidence from HIFA-Waiver Expansions" by Hefei Wen, Jason M. Hockenberry, and Janet R. Cummings. “The Health Effects of Prison” by Randi Hjalmarsson and Matthew J. Lindquist. Probable Causation Episode 41: Matthew Lindquist. “The Effect of Incarceration on Mortality" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.

Steve Mello talks the long-term financial impacts of small criminal justice fines. “Fines and Financial Wellbeing” by Steven Mello. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Report on the economic well-being of U.S. households in 2017" by Jeff Larrimore, Alex Durante, Kimberly Kreiss, Christina Park, and Claudia Sahm. "Criminalizing poverty: The consequences of court fees in a randomized experiment" by Devah Pager, Rebecca Goldstein, Helen Ho, and Bruce Western. "The Government Revenue, Recidivism, and Financial Health Effects of Criminal Fines and Fees" by Tyler Giles. "The Impact of Criminal Financial Sanctions: A Multi-State Analysis of Survey and Administrative Data" by Keith Finlay, Matthew Gross, Carl Lieberman, Elizabeth Luh, and Michael Mueller-Smith.

Rachel Nesbit talks about the effects of mandating mental health treatment for probationers. “The Role of Mandated Mental Health Treatment in the Criminal Justice System” by Rachel Nesbit. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Calgary Diversion Program: A Community-Based Alternative to Incarceration for Mentally Ill Offenders” by Craig Mitton, Liz Simpson, Leslie Gardner, Fran Barnes, and Gerald McDougall. “Mental Health Treatment and Criminal Justice Outcomes” by Richard G. Frank and Thomas G. McGuire. “Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack. “Effectiveness of Using Incentives to Improve Parolee Admission and Attendance in Community Addiction Treatment” by Michael L. Prendergast, Elizabeth A. Hall, Jason Grossman, Robert Veliz, Liliana Gregorio, Umme S. Warda, Kory Van Unen, and Chloe Knight. “A Randomized Trial of the Effectiveness of Using Incentives to Reinforce Parolee Attendance in Community Addiction Treatment: Impact on Post-treatment Outcomes” by Elizabeth A. Hall, Michael L. Prendergast, and Umme Warda. “A Randomized Trial of Probation Case Management for Drug-involved Women Offenders” by Joseph Guydish, Monica Chan, Alan Bostrom, Martha A. Jessup, Thomas B. Davis, and Cheryl Marsh. “The First 90 Days Following Release from Jail: Findings from the Recovery Management Checkups for Women Offenders (RMCWO) Experiment” by Christy K. Scott and Michael L. Dennis. "Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour. Probable Causation Episode 102: William Arbour. “Reducing the Burden of Mental Illness on the Criminal Justice System: Evidence from Light-Touch Outreach” by Mary Kate Batistich, William N. Evans and David C. Phillips. Probable Causation Episode 67: David Phillips. “Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome. Probable Causation Episode 60: Elisa Jácome. "In-Kind Welfare Benefits and Reincarceration Risk: Evidence from Medicaid" by Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague. Probable Causation Episode 103: Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague.

Peter Hull talks about the effects of a jail-based education program called IGNITE. “'Something Works' in U.S. Jails: Misconduct and Recidivism Effects of the IGNITE Program” by Marcella Alsan, Arkey Barnett, Peter Hull, and Crystal Yang. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “What Works? Questions and Answers about Prison Reform” by Robert Martinson. “Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad. “Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.

Abi Adams talks about economic abuse as it relates to intimate partner violence. “The Dynamics of Abusive Relationships” by Abi Adams, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Motherhood and Violence" by Gabriela Deschamps. "Female empowerment and male backlash: Experimental evidence from India" by Claire Cullen, Sarthak Joshi, Joseph Vecci, and Julia Talbot-Jones. "The Unintended Impacts of an Intimate Partner Violence Prevention Program: Experimental Evidence from Rwanda" by Claire Cullen, Arthur Alik-Lagrange, Mũthoni Ngatia, and Julia Vaillant. "Method Matters: The Underreporting of Intimate Partner Violence" by Claire Cullen. "Violence against Women at Work" by Abi Adams, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang. "The Economic Cost of Rape" by Abi Adams, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang. [Available from the authors.]

Alex Albright talks about money bail and the effects of bail reform. “No Money Bail, No Problems? Trade-offs in a Pretrial Automatic Release Program” by Alex Albright. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Tripping through Hoops: The Effect of Violating Compulsory Government Procedures” by Natalia Emanuel and Helen Ho. “The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges” by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang. “Distortion of Justice: How the Inability to Pay Bail Affects Case Outcomes” by Megan T. Stevenson. “The Unintended Impact of Pretrial Detention on Case Outcomes: Evidence from New York City Arraignments” by Emily Leslie and Nolan G. Pope. “The Heavy Costs of High Bail: Evidence from Judge Randomization” by Arpit Gupta, Christopher Hansman, and Ethan Frenchman. “Optimal Bail and the Value of Freedom: Evidence from the Philadelphia Bail Experiment” by David S. Abrams and Chris Rohlfs. “Does Cash Bail Deter Misconduct?” by Aurelie Ouss and Megan T. Stevenson. Episode 4 of Probable Causation: Megan Stevenson. “Behavioral Nudges Reduce Failure to Appear for Court” by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. Episode 21 of Probable Causation: Aurelie Ouss. “The Impact of Defense Counsel at Bail Hearings” by Shamena Anwar, Shawn D. Bushway, and John Engberg. “Pursuing Pretrial Justice Through an Alternative to Bail” by Melanie Skemer, Cindy Redcross, and Howard Bloom. “Release, Detain, or Surveil? The Effect of Electronic Monitoring on Defendant Outcomes” by Roman Rivera.

Roman Rivera talks about the effects of electronic monitoring for US pretrial defendants. “Release, Detain, or Surveil? The Effect of Electronic Monitoring on Defendant Outcomes” by Roman Rivera. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges" by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang. “Criminal Recidivism after Prison and Electronic Monitoring” by Rafael Di Tella and Ernesto Schargrodsky. “Better at Home Than in Prison? The Effects of Electronic Monitoring on Recidivism in France” by Anaïs Henneguelle, Benjamin Monnery, and Annie Kensey. “Can Electronic Monitoring Reduce Reoffending?” by Jenny Williams and Don Weatherburn. Probable Causation Episode 79: Jenny Williams. “The Effects of Electronic Monitoring on Offenders and Their Families" by Julien Grenet, Hans Grönqvist, and Susan Niknami. "Human Decisions and Machine Predictions" by Jon Kleinberg, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan. "Algorithmic Risk Assessments and the Double-Edged Sword of Youth" by Megan T. Stevenson and Christopher Slobogin. "The Effects of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.

Aurélie Ouss talks about how changing who pays for incarceration affects sentencing decisions. “Misaligned incentives and the scale of incarceration in the United States” by Aurélie Ouss. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: The Collapse of American Criminal Justice by William J. Stuntz. "The rise in the disability rolls and the decline in unemployment" by David H. Autor and Mark G. Duggan. "Incentives to provide local public goods: fiscal federalism, Russian style" by Ekaterina Zhuravskaya. "Political Economy at Any Speed: What Determines Traffic Citations?" by Michael D. Makowsky and Thomas Stratmann. "Local Government Dependence on Criminal Justice Revenue and Emerging Constraints" by Shannon R.Graham and Michael D.Makowsky. "More Tickets, Fewer Accidents: How Cash-Strapped Towns Make for Safer Roads" by Michael D. Makowsky and Thomas Stratmann. "To Serve and Collect: The Fiscal and Racial Determinants of Law Enforcement" by Michael D. Makowsky, Thomas Stratmann, and Alex Tabarrok. "Finders keepers: forfeiture laws, policing incentives, and local budgets" by Katherine Baicker and Mireille Jacobson. "When Punishment Doesn't Pay: Cold Glow and Decisions to Punish" by Aurélie Ouss and Alexander Peysakhovich. "Correctional ‘Free Lunch'? Cost Neglect Increases Punishment in Prosecutors" by Eyal Aharoni, Heather M. Kleider-Offutt, and Sarah F. Brosnan. "Organizational structure, police activity and crime" by Itai Ater, Yehonatan Givati, and Oren Rigbi. "Incarceration and Crime: Evidence from California's Public Safety Realignment Reform" by Magnus Lofstrom and Steven Raphael. "Impacts of Private Prison Contracting on Inmate Time Served and Recidivism" by Anita Mukherjee.

Anjali Adukia talks about how using restorative justice practices in schools affects student behavior. “From Retributive to Restorative: An Alternative Approach to Justice in Schools” by Anjali Adukia, Benjamin Feigenberg, and Fatemeh Momeni. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Breaking Schools' Rules: A Statewide Study of How School Discipline Relates to Students' Success and Juvenile Justice Involvement" by Tony Fabelo, Michael D. Thompson, Martha Plotkin, Dottie Carmichael, Miner P. Marchbanks, and Eric A. Booth. “Racial Disparities in School Suspension and Subsequent Outcomes" by Tracey L. Shollenberger. “School Suspensions and Adverse Experiences in Adulthood" by Kerrin C. Wolf and Aaron Kupchik. “The School to Prison Pipeline: Long-Run Impacts of School Suspensions on Adult Crime" by Andrew Bacher-Hicks, Stephen B. Billings, and David J. Deming. “Rethinking Universal Suspension for Severe Student Behavior" by Rebecca Hinze-Pifer and Lauren Sartain. “Discipline Reform, School Culture, and Student Achievement" by Ashley C. Craig and David Martin. “Suspending Suspensions: The Education Production Consequences of School Suspension Policies" by Nolan Pope and George Zuo. “Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make-it-Right Program" by Yotam Shem-Tov, Steven Raphael, and Alissa Skog. "Can Restorative Practices Improve School Climate and Curb Suspensions? An Evaluation of the Impact of Restorative Practices in a Mid-Sized Urban School District" by Catherine Augustine, John Engberg, Geoffrey Grimm, Emma Lee, Elaine Wang, Karen Christianson, and Andrea Joseph. “Evaluation of a Whole-School Change Intervention: Findings from a Two-Year Cluster-Randomized Trial of the Restorative Practices Intervention" by Joie Acosta, Matthew Chinman, Patricia Ebener, Patrick S. Malone, Andrea Phillips, and Asa Wilks.

Ariel White talks about the effect of short jail spells on subsequent voting behavior. This episode was first posted in October 2019. "Misdemeanor Disenfranchisement? The Demobilizing Effects of Brief Jail Spells on Potential Voters" by Ariel White. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Turnout and Party Registration among Criminal Offenders in the 2008 General Election" by Traci Burch "Did Disfranchisement Laws Help Elect President Bush? New Evidence on the Turnout Rates and Candidate Preferences of Florida's Ex-Felons" by Traci Burch "Political Consequences of the Carceral State" by Vesla M. Weaver and Amy E. Lerman "Arresting Citizenship: The Democratic Consequences of American Crime Control" by Amy E. Lerman and Vesla M. Weaver "Does Incarceration Reduce Voting? Evidence about the Political Consequences of Spending Time in Prison" by Alan S. Gerber, Gregory A. Huber, Marc Meredith, Daniel R. Biggers, and David J. Hendry "The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith "Locking Up the Vote? Evidence from Vermont on Voting from Prison" by Ariel White and Avery Nguyen

Jeff Weaver talks about the long-term effects of parental and sibling incarceration. This episode was first posted in July 2019. "The Effect of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Disrupted Childhoods: Children of Women in Prison” by Jane A. Siegal. “Parental Arrest and Incarceration: How Does it Affect Children?” By Stephen B. Billings. “Incarceration Spillovers in Criminal and Family Networks” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad. “Doing Time Together: Love and Family in the Shadow of Prison” by Megan Comfort. "Intergenerational Effects of Incarceration" by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad. "The Intergenerational Effects of Parental Incarceration" by Will Dobbie, Hans Grönqvist, Susan Niknami, Mårten Palme, and Mikael Priks. "Parental Incarceration and Children's Educational Attainment" by Carolina Arteaga. “Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad. "Does Incarceration Increase Crime?" by Evan K. Rose and Yotam Shem-Tov. "The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith.

Emma Rackstraw talks about how reality TV affects policing outcomes. “When Reality TV Creates Reality: How ‘Copaganda' Affects Police, Communities, and Viewers” by Emma Rackstraw. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: Arrest Decisions: What Works for the Officer? by Edith Linn "‘No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection': Media and Sentencing" by Arnaud Philippe and Aurélie Ouss. “The Birth of a Nation: Media and Racial Hate" by Desmond Ang. "The Fox News Effect: Media Bias and Voting" by Stefano DellaVigna and Ethan Kaplan. "How Cable News Reshaped Local Government" by Elliott Ash and Sergio Galletta. "Soap Operas and Fertility: Evidence from Brazil" by Eliana La Ferrara, Alberto Chong, and Suzanne Duryea. “The Impact of Fear on Police Behavior and Public Safety" by Sungwoo Cho, Felipe Gonçalves, and Emily Weisburst. Probable Causation Episode 65: Felipe Gonçalves “Police Force Size and Civilian Race" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Emily K. Weisburst, and Morgan C. Williams, Jr. Probable Causation Episode 55: Morgan Williams, Jr. “Misdemeanor Prosecution" by Amanda Agan, Jennifer L. Doleac, and Anna Harvey. Probable Causation Episode 51: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey "The Effects of Police Violence on Inner-City Students" by Desmond Ang. Probable Causation Episode 50: Desmond Ang "Civic Responses to Police Violence" by Desmond Ang and Jonathan Tebes. "Fear and the Safety Net: Evidence from Secure Communities" by Marcella Alsan and Crystal S. Yang. Probable Causation Episode 95: Marcella Alsan "Community Engagement with Law Enforcement after High-Profile Acts of Police Violence" by Desmond Ang, Panka Bencsik, Jesse Bruhn, and Ellora Derenoncourt. "Community Engagement and Public Safety: Evidence from Crime Enforcement Targeting Immigrants" by Felipe M. Gonçalves, Elisa Jácome, and Emily K. Weisburst. "The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges" by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang. "Copaganda: The Media Origins of the Attitudes Toward Policing in America" by Eunji Kim, Tyler Reno, and Esteban Fernandez. [Working paper available from the authors.] "The Usual Suspects: Offender Origin, Media Reporting and Natives' Attitudes Towards Immigration" by Sekou Keita, Thomas Renault, Jérôme Valette.

David Macdonald talks about the effects of truth-in-sentencing policies. “Truth in Sentencing, Incentives and Recidivism” by David Macdonald. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Police, prosecutors, criminals, and determinate sentencing: The truth about truth-in-sentencing laws” by Joanna M. Shepherd. “Responses to more severe punishment in the courtroom: Evidence from truth-in-sentencing laws" by Libor Dusek and Fusako Tsuchimoto. "Truthiness in punishment: The far reach of truth-in-sentencing laws in state courts" by Emily G. Owens. "How should inmates be released from prison? An assessment of parole versus fixed-sentence regimes" by Ilyana Kuziemko. "Can Parole Reduce Both Time Served and Crime?" by William Arbour & Steeve Marchand. “Parole Supervision on the Margins” by Michael LaForest-Tucker. “The effect of parole supervision on recidivism” by Evarn J. Ooi and Joanna Wang. "Prison Rehabilitation Programs and Recidivism: Evidence from Variations in Availability" by William Arbour, Guy Lacroix and Steeve Marchand "Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour. Probable Causation Episode 102: William Arbour

Ryan Sakoda talks about the effects of post-release supervision.   “Abolish or Reform? An Analysis of Post-Release Supervision” by Ryan Sakoda.   OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Intensive Probation and Parole" by Joan Petersilia and Susan Turner. “The Effects of Low-Intensity Supervision for Lower-Risk Probationers: Updated Results from a Randomized Controlled Trial” by Geoffrey C. Barnes, Jordan M. Hyatt, Lindsay Ahlman, and Daniel Kent. “An Experimental Evaluation of the Impact of Intensive Supervision on the Recidivism of High-Risk Probationers” by Jordan M. Hyatt and Geoffrey C. Barnes. “Managing Drug Involved Probationers with Swift and Certain Sanctions: Evaluating Hawaii's HOPE” by Angela Hawken and Mark Kleiman. “Washington Intensive Supervision Program: Evaluation Report” by Angela Hawken and Mark Kleiman. “Alternative Models of Instant Drug Testing: Evidence from an Experimental Trial” by Eric Grommon, Stephen M. Cox, William S. Davidson II, and Timothy S. Bynum. “HOPE II: A Follow-up to Hawaii's HOPE Evaluation” by Angela Hawken, Jonathan Kulick, Kelly Smith, Jie Mei, Yiwen Zhang, Sara Jarman, Travis Yu, Chris Carson, and Tifanie Vial. “Outcome Findings from the HOPE Demonstration Field Experiment: Is Swift, Certain, and Fair an Effective Supervision Strategy?” by Pamela K. Lattimore, Doris Layton MacKenzie, Gary Zajac, Debbie Dawes, Elaine Arsenault, and Stephen Tueller. “Managing Pretrial Misconduct: An Experimental Evaluation of HOPE Pretrial” by Janet Davidson, George King, Jens Ludwig, and Steven Raphael. “Who Gets a Second Chance? Effectiveness and Equity in Supervision of Criminal Offenders” by Evan K. Rose. Probable Causation Episode 98: Evan Rose "Release from Prison, Parole, and Mortality" by Ashna Arora

Amanda Agan talks about how sealing criminal records affects employment. “Can you Erase the Mark of a Criminal Record? Labor Market Impacts of Criminal Record Remediation” by Amanda Agan, Andrew Garin, Dmitri Koustas, Alex Mas, and Crystal Yang. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: Probable Causation Episode 9: Michael Mueller-Smith “Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial Discrimination: A Field Experiment" by Amanda Agan and Sonja Starr. Probable Causation Episode 8: Amanda Agan "The mark of a criminal record" by Devah Pager. "The edge of stigma: An experimental audit of the effects of low-level criminal records on employment" by Christopher Uggen, Mike Vuolo, Sarah Lageson, Ebony Ruhland, and Hilary K. Whitham. "Does banning the box help ex-offenders get jobs? Evaluating the effects of a prominent example" by Evan K. Rose. "The criminal and labor market impacts of incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith. "Expungement of criminal convictions: An empirical study" by J.J. Prescott and Sonja Starr. "Unmarked: Criminal Record Clearing and Employment Outcomes" by Jeffrey Selbin, Justin McCrary, and Joshua Epstein. "America's paper prisons: The second chance gap" by Colleen Chien. "Misdemeanor Prosecution" by Amanda Agan, Jennifer L. Doleac, and Anna Harvey. Probable Causation Episode 51: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey "Labor Market Impacts of Reducing Felony Convictions" by Amanda Y. Agan, Andrew Garin, Dmitri K. Koustas, Alexandre Mas, and Crystal Yang. "Is it time to let go of the past? Effect of clean slate regulation on employment and earnings" by Kabir Dasgupta, Keshar Ghimire, and Alexander Plum. "Increasing the Demand for Workers with a Criminal Record" by Zoë Cullen, Will Dobbie, and Mitchell Hoffman. Probable Causation Episode 71: Zoë Cullen  

Oeindrila Dube is the Philip K. Pearson Professor at the University of Chicago's Harris School of Public Policy. http://odube.net In this episode, we discuss Prof. Dube's research on a cognitive behavioral training program for police.   “A Cognitive View of Policing” by Oeindrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur, and Anuj Shah. https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/ktomnokei9m85dodec63b/A_Cognitive_View_of_Policing_August11.pdf?rlkey=npv33jc9pd639q9ebq95ljktg&dl=0 Other research we discuss in this episode:  "Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw033 "Can You Build a Better Cop?" by Emily Owens, David Weisburd, Karen L. Amendola, and Geoffrey P. Alpert.  https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12337 "The Impacts of Implicit Bias Awareness Training in the NYPD" by Robert E. Worden, Sarah J. McLean, Robin S. Engel, Hannah Cochran, Nicholas Corsaro, Danielle Reynolds, Cynthia J. Najdowski, and Gabrielle T. Isaza.  https://www.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/analysis_and_planning/impacts-of-implicit-bias-awareness-training-in-%20the-nypd.pdf "The impact of implicit bias-oriented diversity training on police officers' beliefs, motivations, and actions" by Calvin K. Lai and Jaclyn A. Lisnek. https://doi.org/10.1177/09567976221150617 "Does De-escalation Training Work?" by Robin S. Engel, Hannah D. McManus, and Tamara D. Herold.  https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12467 "Assessing the Impact of De-escalation Training on Police Behavior: Reducing Police Use of Force in the Louisville, KY Metro Police Department" by Robin S. Engel, Nicholas Corsaro, Gabrielle T. Isaza, and Hannah D. McManus. https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12574 “Reducing crime and violence: Experimental evidence from cognitive behavioral therapy in Liberia” by Christopher Blattman, Julian C. Jamison, and Margaret Sheridan. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257%2Faer.20150503 "Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour. https://github.com/williamarbour/JMP/blob/main/JMP_WilliamArbour_recent.pdf Probable Causation Episode 102: William Arbour https://www.probablecausation.com/podcasts/episode-102-william-arbour "Peer Effects in Police Use of Force" by Justin E. Holz, Roman G. Rivera, and Bocar A. Ba. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20200227 "The Effect of Field Training Officers on Police Use of Force" by Chandon Adger, Matthew Ross, and CarlyWill Sloan. https://github.com/carlywillsloan/FTO/blob/main/training_220314%20(11).pdf Probable Causation Episode 90: Matthew Ross https://www.probablecausation.com/podcasts/episode-90-matthew-ross

Erich Muehlegger talks about the effect of air pollution on crime. This episode was first posted in September 2020. "Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Microgeographic Evidence from Chicago" by Evan Herrnstadt, Anthony Heyes, Erich Muehlegger, and Soodeh Saberian. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Crime Is in the Air: The Contemporaneous Relationship between Air Pollution and Crime” by Malvina Bondy, Sefi Roth, and Lutz Sager. “The effect of pollution on crime: Evidence from data on particulate matter and ozone” by Jesse Burkhardt, Jude Bayham, Ander Wilson, Ellison Carter, Jesse D. Berman, Katelyn O'Dell, Bonne Ford, Emily V. Fischer, and Jeffrey R. Pierce. “The Mortality and Medical Costs of Air Pollution: Evidence from Changes in Wind Direction” by Tatyana Deryugina, Garth Heutel, Nolan H. Miller, David Molitor, and Julian Reif. “Airports, Air Pollution, and Contemporaneous Health” by Wolfram Schlenker and W. Reed Walker. “Traffic Congestion and Infant Health: Evidence from E-ZPass” by Janet Currie and Reed Walker. “As the Wind Blows: The Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Air Pollution on Mortality” by Michael L. Anderson. “Air pollution and children's respiratory health: A cohort analysis” by Timothy K.M. Beatty and Jay P. Shimshack. “Air Quality and Error Quantity: Pollution and Performance in a High-Skilled, Quality-Focused Occupation” by James Archsmith, Anthony Heyes, and Soodeh Saberian. “The Long-Run Economic Consequences of High-Stakes Examinations: Evidence from Transitory Variation in Pollution” by Avraham Ebenstein, Victor Lavy, and Sefi Roth.

Aurelie Ouss talks about using insights from behavioral economics to reduce failures-to-appear in court. This episode was first posted in January 2020. "Nudging Crime Policy: Reducing Failures to Appear for Court" by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. (Available from the authors upon request.) Related policy paper: "Using Behavioral Science to Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes: Preventing Failures to Appear in Court" by Brice Cook, Binta Zahra Diop, Alissa Fishbane, Jonathan Hayes, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj Shah. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Bail, Jail, and Pretrial Misconduct: The Influence of Prosecutors" by Aurelie Ouss and Megan T. Stevenson. “Distortion of Justice: How the Inability to Pay Bail Affects Case Outcomes” by Megan T. Stevenson. “The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges” by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang. “The Unintended Impact of Pretrial Detention on Case Outcomes: Evidence from New York City Arraignments” by Emily Leslie and Nolan G. Pope. “The Downstream Consequences of Misdemeanor Pretrial Detention” by Paul Heaton, Sandra Mayson, and Megan Stevenson. Episode 4 of Probable Causation: Megan Stevenson "Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack. “Behavioral Biases and Legal Compliance: A Field Experiment” by Natalia Emanuel and Helen Ho.

Episode 103: Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague on Medicaid Access and Recidivism In this insightful episode, Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague delve into the critical role Medicaid access plays in affecting recidivism rates, drawing on their comprehensive research. Through a discussion that spans health policy, economics, and the intricacies of Medicaid's impact on individuals reentering society post-incarceration, the episode sheds light on the tangible benefits of accessible healthcare services. Key Research Discussed: Main Study: "In-Kind Welfare Benefits and Reincarceration Risk: Evidence from Medicaid" by Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague. This pivotal study forms the episode's backbone, illustrating how Medicaid access can significantly reduce recidivism rates among formerly incarcerated individuals. Read the study. Additional Research Covered: The episode also touches on other influential works that explore the intersection of Medicaid eligibility, mental health, and criminal involvement, including studies by Elisa Jacome, Jessica T. Simes, Jaquelyn L. Jahn, Kathryn L. Wagner, Jacob Vogler, Qiwei He, Scott Bardowski, Hefei Wen, Jason M. Hockenberry, Janet R. Cummings, Crystal S. Yang, Jillian B. Carr, Analisa Packham, Caroline Palmer, David C. Phillips, James X. Sullivan, Manasi Deshpande, Michael Mueller-Smith, and Cody Tuttle. These works collectively underscore the complex relationship between public health insurance, criminal behavior, and social welfare programs. Episode Highlights: Marguerite Burns' Journey: Starting from her experiences as a community health center administrator, Burns shares her transition into a health services researcher focusing on Medicaid's impact on adults with substance use and mental health disorders. Laura Dague's Path: Dague recounts her evolution from a rural Kansas native with a burgeoning interest in public policy to an expert in health economics, emphasizing Medicaid's role as a critical safety net. Policy Changes in Wisconsin: The episode delves into Wisconsin's Medicaid policy alterations, including eligibility expansion and pre-release enrollment assistance programs, and their profound impact on Medicaid enrollment among the formerly incarcerated. Data and Methodology: Burns and Dague discuss the unique dataset they constructed, combining Department of Corrections and Medicaid data to analyze the effects of Medicaid access on recidivism and employment. Findings and Implications: The significant reduction in reincarceration rates and improvement in employment among those with Medicaid coverage post-release are highlighted. The conversation also explores potential mechanisms behind these effects, underscoring the importance of considering Medicaid access in policy formulations aimed at supporting reentry. For Further Exploration: Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility by Elisa Jacome Probable Causation Episode 60 featuring Elisa Jacome Additional readings and resources related to Medicaid's consequences on public health, crime reduction, and welfare benefits are provided, offering listeners a comprehensive understanding of the topic. “The consequences of Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act for police arrests” by Jessica T. Simes and Jaquelyn L. Jahn. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261512   “Public health insurance and impacts on crime incidences and mental health" by Kathryn L. Wagner. https://doi.org/10.1515/bejeap-2020-0190   "Access to health Care and Criminal Behavior: Evidence form the ACA Medicaid Expansions" by Jacob Vogler. https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22239   "The Effect of Health Insurance on Crime: Evidence from the Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansion" by Qiwei He and Scott Bardowski. https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.3977   "The Effect of Medicaid Expansion on Crime Reduction: Evidence from HIFA-Waiver Expansions" by Hefei Wen, Jason M. Hockenberry, and Janet R. Cummings. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2017.09.001   "Does Public Assistance Reduce Recidivism?" by Crystal S. Yang. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.p20171001   “SNAP benefits and crime: Evidence from changing disbursement schedules” by Jillian B. Carr and Analisa Packham. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00757   "Does emergency financial assistance reduce crime?" by Caroline Palmer, David C. Phillips, and James X. Sullivan. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2018.10.012   “Does welfare prevent crime? The criminal justice outcomes of youth removed from SSI" by Manasi Deshpande and Michael Mueller-Smith. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac017   "Snapping Back: Food Stamp Bans and Criminal Recidivism" by Cody Tuttle. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20170490

William Arbour talks about how prison-based behavioral programs in Canada affect recidivism. "Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack. “Reducing crime and violence: Experimental evidence from cognitive behavioral therapy in Liberia” by Christopher Blattman, Julian C. Jamison, and Margaret Sheridan. Probable Causation Episode 23: Lelys Dinarte. "One Size Doesn't Fit All – The Heterogeneous Effects of Prison Programs" by Michael LaForest-Tucker. [Working paper available from the author.] "Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make-it-Right Program" by Yotam Shem-Tov, Steven Raphael, and Alissa Skog.

Randi Hjalmarsson talks about how punishment severity affects juries' decisions to convict. This episode was first posted in June 2020. "How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments" by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Making the Crime Fit the Penalty: The Role of Prosecutorial Discretion under Mandatory Minimum Sentencing” by David Bjerk. “The Impact of Jury Race in Criminal Trials” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson. “The Role of Age in Jury Selection and Trial Outcomes” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson. “A Jury of Her Peers: The Impact of the First Female Jurors on Criminal Verdicts” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson. “Politics in the Courtroom: Political Ideology and Jury Decision Making” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson. “No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection: Media and Sentencing” by Aurelie Ouss and Arnaud Philippe. “Path Dependency in Jury Decision Making” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson. “The Persistence of the Criminal Justice Gender Gap: Evidence from 200 Years of Judicial Decisions” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson. “The Impact of the First Professional Police Forces on Crime” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.    

Sara Heller talks about summer youth employment programs. "Summer Jobs Reduce Violence Among Disadvantaged Youth" by Sara B. Heller. "Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs" by Jonathan M.V. Davis and Sara B. Heller OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations" by David Card, Jochen Kluve, and Andrea Weber. "Active Labor Market Policies" by Bruno Crépon and Gerard J. van den Berg. "Employment and Training Programs" by Robert J. LaLonde. "The Promise of Public Sector-Sponsored Training Programs" by Robert J. LaLonde. "The Youth Entitlement Demonstration: Subsidized Employment with a Schooling Requirement" by George Farkas, D. Alton Smith, and Ernst W. Stromsdorfer. "A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of In-School and Summer Neighborhood Youth Corps: A Nationwide Evaluation" by Gerald G. Somers and Ernst W. Stromsdorfer. "Summer Training and Education Program (STEP): Report on Long-Term Impacts" by Cynthia L. Sipe and Jean Baldwin Grossman. "An Anatomy of a Demonstration: STEP from Pilot through Replication and Postprogram Impacts" by Frances Vilella-Velez and Gary Walker. "The Summer Employment Experiences and the Personal/Social Behaviors of Youth Violence Prevention Employment Program Participants and Those of a Comparison Group" by Andrew Sum, Mykhaylo Trubskyy, and Walter McHugh. "Enriching Summer Work: An Evaluation of the Summer Career Exploration Program" by Wendy S. McClanahan, Cynthia L. Sipe, and Thomas J. Smith. "What Is a Summer Job Worth? The Impact of Summer Youth Employment on Academic Outcomes" by Jacob Leos-Urbel. "Making Summer Matter: The Impact of Youth Employment on Academic Performance" by Amy Ellen Schwartz, Jacob Leos-Urbel, and Matt Wiswall. "The Effects of Youth Employment: Evidence from New York City Lotteries" by Alexander Gelber, Adam Isen, and Judd B. Kessler. "An Introduction to the World of Work: A Study of the Implementation and Impacts of New York City's Summer Youth Employment Program" by Erin Jacobs Valentine, Chloe Anderson Golub, Farhana Hossain, and Rebecca Unterman. "How Do Summer Youth Employment Programs Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes, and for Whom?" by Alicia Sasser Modestino. "Reducing inequality summer by summer: Lessons from an evaluation of the Boston Summer Youth Employment Program" by Alicia Sasser Modestino and Richard J. Paulsen. "School's Out: How Summer Youth Employment Programs Impact Academic Outcomes" by Alicia Sasser Modestino and Richard Paulsen.

Xinming Du talks about how aggressive posts on social media affect offline violence.

Marina Gorzig and Deborah Rho talk about the effects of renter protection policies (including limits on landlords' use of criminal records) in Minneapolis. 

Ben Feigenberg talks about socioeconomic disparities in who police stop for traffic offenses. “Class Disparities and Discrimination in Traffic Stops and Searches” by Ben Feigenberg and Conrad Miller. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Would Eliminating Racial Disparities in Motor Vehicle Searches Have Efficiency Costs?” by Ben Feigenberg and Conrad Miller. “Smartphone Data Reveal Neighborhood-Level Racial Disparities in Police Presence” by M. Keith Chen, Katherine L. Christensen, Elicia John, Emily Owens, and Yilin Zhou. “Multitasking, Expectations, and Police Officer Behavior” by James Reeves. [Draft available from author upon request]. “My Taxes are Too Darn High: Why Do Households Protest Their Taxes?” by Brad C. Nathan, Ricardo Perez-Truglia, and Alejandro Zentner.

Evan Rose talks about community supervision, and the costs and benefits of incarceration as a consequence for breaking probation rules “Who Gets a Second Chance? Effectiveness and Equity in Supervision of Criminal Offenders” by Evan K. Rose OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Five Year Outcomes in a Randomized Trial of a Community-Based Multi-Agency Intensive Supervision Juvenile Probation Program” by Karen Hennigan, Kathy Kolnick, Tian Sivan Tian, Cheryl Maxson, and John Poplawski. “The Effects of Low-Intensity Supervision for Lower-Risk Probationers: Updated Results from a Randomized Controlled Trial” by Geoffrey C. Barnes, Jordan M. Hyatt, Lindsay Ahlman, and Daniel Kent. “An Evaluation of Day Reporting Centers of Parolees: Outcomes of a Randomized Trial” by Douglas J. Boyle, Laura M Ragusa-Salerno, Jennifer L. Lanterman, and Andrea Fleisch Marcus. “An Experimental Evaluation of the Impact of Intensive Supervision on the Recidivism of High-Risk Probationers” by Jordan M. Hyatt and Geoffrey C. Barnes. “Managing Drug Involved Probationers with Swift and Certain Sanctions: Evaluating Hawaii's HOPE” by Angela Hawken and Mark Kleiman. “Washington Intensive Supervision Program: Evaluation Report” by Angela Hawken and Mark Kleiman. “Alternative Models of Instant Drug Testing: Evidence from an Experimental Trial” by Eric Grommon, Stephen M. Cox, William S. Davidson II, and Timothy S. Bynum. “HOPE II: A Follow-up to Hawaii's HOPE Evaluation” by Angela Hawken, Jonathan Kulick, Kelly Smith, Jie Mei, Yiwen Zhang, Sara Jarman, Travis Yu, Chris Carson, and Tifanie Vial. “Outcome Findings from the HOPE Demonstration Field Experiment: Is Swift, Certain, and Fair an Effective Supervision Strategy?” by Pamela K. Lattimore, Doris Layton MacKenzie, Gary Zajac, Debbie Dawes, Elaine Arsenault, and Stephen Tueller. “Managing Pretrial Misconduct: An Experimental Evaluation of HOPE Pretrial” by Janet Davidson, George King, Jens Ludwig, and Steven Raphael. “Efficient Sentencing? The Effect of Post-Release Supervision on Low-Level Offenders” by Ryan Sakoda. [Unpublished manuscript]  

David Phillips talks about connecting people released from jail with mental health care. This episode was first posted in February 2022. “Reducing Re-arrests through Light Touch Mental Health Outreach” by Mary Kate Batistich, William N. Evans and David C. Phillips OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Local Access to Mental Healthcare and Crime” by Monica Deza, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and Keisha Solomon. “Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome. Episode 60 of Probable Causation: Elisa Jácome. “Substance Abuse Treatment Centers and Local Crime” by Samuel R. Bondurant, Jason M. Lindo, and Isaac D. Swensen. “Behavioral Nudges Reduce Failure to Appear for Court” by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. Episode 21 of Probable Causation: Aurelie Ouss. “The Impact of Youth Medicaid Eligibility on Adult Incarceration” by Samuel Arenberg, Seth Neller, and Sam Stripling. “Stress on the Sidewalk: The Mental Health Costs of Close Proximity Crime” by Panka Bencsik. “Policing Substance Use: Chicago's Treatment Program for Narcotics Arrests” by Ashna Arora and Panka Bencsik. “Crisis Averted? The Effects of Crisis Intervention Units on Arrests and Use of Force” by Maya Mikdash and Chelsea Temple. (Draft available from the authors).

J.J. Prescott talks about sex offender registries. This episode was first posted in January 2020. "Do Sex Offender Registration and Notification Laws Affect Criminal Behavior?" by J.J. Prescott and Jonah E. Rockoff. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: Legislation Targeting Sex Offenders: Are Recent Policies Effective in Reducing Rape? by Alissa R. Ackerman, Meghan Sacks and David F. Greenberg. The Iowa Sex Offender Registry and Recidivism by Geneva Adkins, David Huff, and Paul Stageberg. Sex Offender Registries: Fear without Function? by Amanda Y. Agan. Sex Offender Law and the Geography of Victimization by J. J. Prescott and Amanda Y. Agan. Time-Series Analyses of the Impact of Sex Offender Registration and Notification Law Implementation and Subsequent Modifications on Rates of Sexual Offenses by Jeff A. Bouffard and LaQuana N. Askew. The Effect of Sex Offender Registries on Recidivism: Evidence from a Natural Experiment by Jillian B. Carr. The Impact of Megan's Law on Sex Offender Recidivism: The Minnesota Experience by Grant Duwe and William Donnay. The Public Safety Impact of Community Notification Laws: Rearrest of Convicted Sex Offenders by Naomi J. Freeman. Juvenile Registration and Notification Policy Effects: A Multistate Evaluation Project by Elizabeth J. Letourneau, Jeffery Sandler, Donna Vandiver, Ryan Shields, and Reshmi Nair. Failure to Register as a Sex Offender: Is it Associated with Recidivism? Jill Levenson, Elizabeth Letourneau, Kevin Armstrong, and Kristen Marie Zgoba. Failure-to-Register Laws and Public Safety: An Examination of Risk Factors and Sex Offense Recidivism by Jill Levenson, Jeffrey Sandler, and Naomi Freeman. Community Protection Policies and Repeat Sexual Offenses in Florida by Jill S. Levenson and Kristen M. Zgoba. Utilizing Criminal History Information to Explore the Effect of Community Notification on Sex Offender Recidivism by Sean Maddan, J. Mitchell Miller, Jeffery T. Walker, and Ineke Haen Marshall. A Time-Series Analysis of the Effectiveness of Sex Offender Notification Laws in the USA by Kimberly Maurelli and George Ronan. Does a Watched Pot Boil? A Time-Series Analysis of New York State's Sex Offender Registration and Notification Law by Jeffrey C. Sandler, Naomi J. Freeman, and Kelly M. Socia. Juvenile Sexual Crime Reporting Rates are not Influenced by Juvenile Sex Offender Registration Policies by Jeffrey C. Sandler, Elizabeth J. Letourneau, Donna Vandiver, Ryan T. Shields, and Mark Chaffin. Community Notification: A Study of Offender Characteristics and Recidivism by Donna D. Schram and Cheryl Darling Milloy. “Brothers Under the Bridge”: Factors Influencing the Transience of Registered Sex Offenders in Florida by Kelly M. Socia, Jill S. Levenson, Alissa R. Ackerman, and Andrew J. Harris. Assessing the Impact of Sex Offender Registration and Community Notification on Sex-Offending Trajectories by Richard Tewksbury and Wesley G. Jennings. A Longitudinal Examination of Sex Offender Recidivism Prior to and Following the Implementation of SORN by Richard Tewksbury, Wesley G. Jennings, and Kristen M. Zgoba. The Influence of Sex Offender Registration and Notification Laws in the United States: A Time-Series Analysis by Bob E. Vasquez, Sean Maddan, and Jeffery T. Walker. Sex Offender Community Notification: Its Role in Recidivism and Offender Reintegration by Richard G. Zevitz. Failure to Register as a Predictor of Sex Offense Recidivism: The Big Bad Wolf or a Red Herring? by Jill S. Levenson and Kristen M. Zgoba An Analysis of the Effectiveness of Community Notification and Registration: Do the Best Intentions Predict the Best Practices? by Kristen Zgoba , Bonita M. Veysey & Melissa Dalessandro.  

Ellora Derenoncourt talks about how the Great Migration affected economic mobility. This episode was first posted in September 2020. "Can you move to opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration" by Ellora Derenoncourt.  OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Race and Economic Opportunity in the United States: An Intergenerational Perspective" by Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Maggie R. Jones, and Sonya R. Porter. "The Impacts of Neighborhoods on Intergenerational Mobility I: Childhood Exposure Effects" by Raj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren. "The Impacts of Neighborhoods on Intergenerational Mobility II: County-Level Estimates" by Raj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren. "Competition in the Promised Land: Black Migration and Racial Wage Convergence in the North, 1940–1970" by Leah Platt Boustan. "Was Postwar Suburbanization 'White Flight'? Evidence from the Black Migration" by Leah Platt Boustan. "Competition in the Promised Land: Black Migrants in Northern Cities and Labor Markets" by Leah Platt Boustan. "Migration Networks and Location Decisions: Evidence from US Mass Migration" by Bryan A. Stuart and Evan J. Taylor. "The Warmth of Other Suns: The Epic Story of America's Great Migration" by Isabel Wilkerson. "Creating Moves to Opportunity: Experimental Evidence on Barriers to Neighborhood Choice" by Peter Bergman, Raj Chetty, Stefanie DeLuca, Nathaniel Hendren, Lawrence F. Katz, and Christopher Palmer. "Children of the Dream: Why School Integration Works" by Rucker C. Johnson. "The Long-run Economic Effects of School Desegregation" by Cody Tuttle.

Elisa Jácome talks about how access to mental health care affects criminal behavior. This episode was first posted in November 2021. “Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Homeward: Life in the Year After Prison” by Bruce Western. “Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack. ”Youth depression and future criminal behavior” by D. Mark Anderson, Resul Cesur, and Erdal Tekin. “Substance Abuse Treatment Centers and Local Crime” by Samuel R. Bondurant, Jason M. Lindo, and Isaac D. Swensen. ”The FDA and ABCs Unintended Consequences of Antidepressant Warnings on Human Capital” by Susan Busch, Ezra Golberstein, and Ellen Meara. ”Consequences of Eliminating Federal Disability Benefits for Substance Abusers” by Pinka Chatterji and EllenMeara. ”Long-Term Consequences of Childhood ADHD on Criminal Activities” by Jason Fletcher and Barbara Wolfe. “A Cure for Crime? Psycho-Pharmaceuticals and Crime Trends” by Dave E. Marcotte,Sara Markowitz. ”Psychiatric Disorders in Youth in Juvenile Detention” by Linda A. Teplin, Karen M. Abram, Gary M. McClelland, Mina K. Dulcan, and Amy A. Mericle. ”Access to Health Care and Criminal Behavior: Short-Run Evidence from the ACA Medicaid Expansions” by Jacob Vogler. ”The effect of medicaid expansion on crime reduction: Evidence from hifa-waiver expansions” by Hefei Wen, Jason M. Hockenberry, Janet R. Cummings. ”The Effect of Public Health Insurance on Criminal Recidivism” by Erkmen Giray Aslim, Murat C. Mungan, Carlos Navarro, and Han Yu. ”The effect of health insurance on crime: Evidence from the affordable care act medicaid expansion” by Qiwei He and Scott Barkowski. “Local access to mental healthcare and crime” by Monica Deza, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and Keisha T. Solomon. “The Impact of Youth Medicaid Eligibility on Adult Incarceration” by Samuel Arenberg, Seth Neller, and Sam Stripling. “The Health Effects of Prison” by Randi Hjalmarsson and Matthew Lindquist. Probable Causation Episode 41: Matthew Lindquist.

Greg Midgette talks about the effects of 24/7 Sobriety — a program for defendants with alcohol-related offenses, based on swift-certain-fair principles. This episode was first posted in March 2021. “Criminal Deterrence: Evidence from an Individual‐Level Analysis of 24/7 Sobriety” by Beau Kilmer and Greg Midgette. *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment” by Mark A.R. Kleiman. "The Efficacy of the Rio Hondo DUI Court: A 2-Year Field Experiment" by John M. MacDonald, Andrew R. Morral, Barbara Raymond, and Christine Eibner. ”Punishment and deterrence: Evidence from Drunk Driving” by Benjamin Hansen. “Efficacy of Frequent Monitoring with Swift, Certain, and Modest Sanctions for Violations: Insights from South Dakota's 24/7 Sobriety Project” by Beau Kilmer, Nancy Nicosia, Paul Heaton, and Greg Midgette. "Can a criminal justice alcohol abstention programme with swift, certain, and modest sanctions (24/7 Sobriety) reduce population mortality? A retrospective observational study" by Nancy Nicosia, Beau Kilmer, and Paul Heaton. “Paying the Tab: The Costs and Benefits of Alcohol Control” by Philip J. Cook. "Managing Drug Involved Probationers with Swift and Certain Sanctions: Evaluating Hawaii's HOPE." by Angela Hawken and Mark A. R. Kleiman. "Washington Intensive Supervision Program: Evaluation Report" by Angela Hawken and Mark A. R. Kleiman. "HOPE II: A Follow-up to Hawaii`s HOPE Evaluation" by Angela Hawken, Jonathan Kulick, Kelly Smith, Jie Mei, Yiwen Zhang, Sara Jarman, Travis Yu, Chris Carson, and Tifanie Vial. "Outcome Findings from the HOPE Demonstration Field Experiment: Is Swift, Certain, and Fair an Effective Supervision Strategy?" by Pamela K. Lattimore, Doris Layton MacKenzie, Gary Zajac, Debbie Dawes, Elaine Arsenault, and Stephen Tueller. “Managing Pretrial Misconduct: An Experimental Evaluation of HOPE Pretrial" by Janet Davidson, George King, Jens Ludwig, and Steven Raphael. ”A Natural Experiment to Test the Effect of Sanction Certainty and Celerity on Substance-Impaired Driving: North Dakota's 24/7 Sobriety Program” by Greg Midgette, Beau Kilmer, Nancy Nicosia, and Paul Heaton.  

Elizabeth Linos talks about how to recruit more and different people to become police officers. This episode was first posted in January 2021. "More Than Public Service: A Field Experiment on Job Advertisements and Diversity in the Police" by Elizabeth Linos. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Behavioral Insights for Building the Police Force of Tomorrow" by Joanna Weill, Elizabeth Linos, Siddharth Mandava, Cecily Wallman-Stokes, and Jacob Appel. "Thick Red Tape and the Thin Blue Line: A Field Study on Reducing Administrative Burden in Police Recruitment" by Elizabeth Linos and Nefara Riesch. "A head for hiring: The behavioural science of recruitment and selection" by Elizabeth Linos and Joanne Reinhard.

Amanda Agan talks about the effects of Ban the Box policies. This episode was first posted in July 2019. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Discrimination and the Effects of Drug Testing on Black Employment" by Abigail Wozniak. "Deleting a Signal: Evidence from Pre-Employment Credit Checks" by Alexander W. Bartik and Scott T. Nelson "Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial Discrimination: A Field Experiment" by Amanda Agan and Sonja Starr. "The Unintended Consequences of Ban the Box: Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes When Criminal Histories are Hidden" by Jennifer L. Doleac and Benjamin Hansen. "The Effect of Changing Employers' Access to Criminal Histories on Ex-Offenders' Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the 2010–2012 Massachusetts CORI Reform" by Osborne Jackson and Bo Zhao "Does Banning the Box Help Ex-Offenders Get Jobs? Evaluating the Effects of a Prominent Example" by Evan K. Rose "Ban the Box, Convictions, and Public Sector Employment" by Terry-Ann Craigie "'Ban the Box' Measures Help High-Crime Neighborhoods" by Daniel Shoag and Stan Veuger "Do Ban the Box Laws Increase Crime?" by Joseph J. Sabia, Taylor Mackay, Thanh Tam Nguyen, and Dhaval M. Dave "Job Market Signaling through Occupational Licensing" by Peter Q. Blair and Bobby W. Chung "Statistical Discrimination and the Choice of Licensing: Evidence from Ban-the-Box Laws" by Riccardo Marchingiglio "The Effectiveness of Certificates of Relief as Collateral Consequence Relief Mechanisms: An Experimental Study" by Peter Leasure and Tia Stevens Andersen "Criminal Records and Housing: An Experimental Study" by Peter Leasure and Tara Martin. "Encouraging Desistance from Crime" by Jennifer L. Doleac

Allison Stashko talks about prosecutor elections and police accountability. “Prosecutor Elections and Police Killings” by Allison Stashko and Haritz Garro. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Collective Bargaining Rights and Police Misconduct: Evidence from Florida” by Dhammika Dharmapala, Richard H. McAdams, and John Rappaport. “Preventing the Use of Deadly Force: The Relationship Between Police Agency Policies and Rates of Officer-Involved Gun Deaths” by Jay T. Jennings and Meghan E. Rubado. “Misdemeanor Prosecution” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, and Anna Harvey. “Prosecutorial Reforms and Local Crime Rates” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, and Anna Harvey. “Too Tough on Crime? The Impact of Prosecutor Politics on Incarceration” by Ashna Arora. “The Effect of DA Elections on Public Safety” by Dvir Yogev. [Working Paper available from the author]. “Does Prosecutor Partisanship Exacerbate the Racial Charging Gap? Evidence from District Attorneys in Three States” by Sidak Yntiso.

Andreas Kotsadam talks about how giving women jobs affects intimate partner violence in Ethiopia. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Marcella Alsan talks about how Secure Communities affected take-up of safety net programs. “Fear and the Safety Net: Evidence from Secure Communities” by Marcella Alsan and Crystal S. Yang. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Immigration Enforcement and Economic Resources of Children with Likely Unauthorized Parents” by Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, Esther Arenas-Arroyo, and Almudena Sevilla. “Distributing the Green (Cards): Permanent Residency and Personal Income Taxes After the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986” by Elizabeth Cascio and Ethan Lewis. “Inside the Refrigerator: Immigration Enforcement and Chilling in Immigrant Medicaid Participation” by Tara Watson. “Immigration and the Welfare State: Immigrant Participation in Means-Tested Entitlement Programs” by George Borjas and Lynette Hilton. “Network Effects and Welfare Cultures” by Marianne Bertrand, Erzo Luttmer, and Sendhil Mullainathan. “Understanding the Quality of Alternative Citizenship Data Sources for the 2020 Census” by J. David Brown, Misty Heggeness, Suzanne Dorinski, and Lawrence Warren. “Does Welfare Prevent Crime? The Criminal Justice Outcomes of Youth Removed from SSI” by Manasi Deshpande and Michael Mueller-Smith. “Does Immigration Enforcement Reduce Crime? Evidence from Secure Communities” by Thomas J. Miles and Adam B. Cox. “Unintended Consequences of Immigration Enforcement: Household Services and High-Educated Mothers' Work” by Chloe East and Andrea Velasquez. “The Labor Market Effects of Immigration Enforcement” by Chloe East, Philip Luck, Hani Mansour, and Andrea Velasquez. “Immigration Enforcement and Public Safety” by Felipe Gonçalves, Elisa Jácome, and Emily Weisburst. [Draft available from the authors]. “Immigration Enforcement and the Institutionalization of Elderly Americans” by Abdulmohsen Almuhaisen, Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, and Delia Furtado. [Draft available from the authors] “Take-up and Targeting: Experimental Evidence from SNAP” by Amy Finkelstein and Matthew J. Notowidigdo. “Reducing Ordeals through Automatic Enrollment: Evidence from a Subsidized Health Insurance Exchange” by Mark Shepard and Myles Wagner.  

Jesse Bruhn talks about the effects of gangs in Chicago. “Competition in the Black Market: Estimating the Causal Effect of Gangs in Chicago” by Jesse Bruhn. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago” by Monica Bhatt, Sara Heller, Max Kapustin, Marianne Bertrand, and Christopher Blattman. Probable Causation Episode 88: Sara Heller and Max Kapustin. “Gangs, Labor Mobility, and Development” by Nikita Melnikov, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and Maria Micaela Sciatschi. Probable Causation Episode 15: Mica Sviatschi. “Growing Up in the Projects: The Economic Lives of a Cohort of Men Who Came of Age in Chicago Public Housing” by Steven Levitt and Sudhir Allude Venkatesh. “Gangs of Medellin: How Organized Crime is Organized” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobon. [Unpublished Manuscript] “Gang Rule: Understanding and Countering Criminal Governance” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobon. “Can Precision Policing Reduce Gun Violence? Evidence from “Gang Takedowns” in New York City” by Aaron Chalfin, Michael LaForest, and Jacob Kaplan. “The Effects of Civil Gang Injunctions on Reported Violent Crime: Evidence from Los Angeles County” by Jeffrey Grogger. “Student Exposure to Proactive Policing: Heterogenous Effects of Los Angeles Gang Injunctions” by Jessica Wagner. [Available from the author upon request]

Justin Holz talks about peer effects in police use of force. “Peer Effects in Police Use of Force” by Justin E. Holz, Roman G. Rivera, and Bocar A. Ba. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The Effect of Field Training Officers on Police Use of Force” by Chandon Adger, Mathew Ross, and CarlyWill Sloan. Probable Causation Episode 90: Matthew Ross. “Does Race Matter for Police Use of Force? Evidence from 911 Calls” by Mark Hoekstra and CarlyWill Sloan. Probable Causation Episode 38: CarlyWill Sloan. “An Empirical Analysis of Racial Differences in Police Use of Force” by Roland G. Fryer Jr. “An Empirical Analysis of Racial Differences in Police Use of Force: A Comment” by Steven N. Durlauf and James J. Heckman. “Wearing Body Cameras Increases Assaults Against Officers and Does Not Reduce Police Use of Force: Results from a Global Multi-site Experiment” By Barak Ariel, Alex Sutherland, Darren Penstock, Josh Young, Paul Drove, Jayne Sykes, Simon Megicks, and Ryan Henderson. “The “Less-Than-Lethal Weapons Effect”- Introducing TASERs to Routine Operations in England and Wales: A Randomized Controlled Trial” by Barak Ariel, David Lawes, Cristobal Weinborn, Ron Henry, Kevin Chen, and Hagit Brants Sabo. “American Policing and the Danger Imperative” by Michael Sierra-Arevalo. “Racial Profiling and Use of Force in Police Stops: How Local Events Trigger Periods of Increased Discrimination” by Joscha Legewie. “Violence and Risk Preference: Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan” by Michael Callen, Mohammad Isaqzadeh, James D. Long, and Charles Sprenger. “Exposure to Violence Predicts Impulsivity in Time Preferences: Evidence from The Democratic Republic of Congo” by Alex Imas, Michael Kuhn, and Vera Mironova. [Working Paper]. “Violence, Psychological Trauma, and Risk Attitudes: Evidence from Victims of Violence in Colombia” by Andrés Moya. “Impact of Violent Crime on Risk Aversion: Evidence from the Mexican Drug War” by Ryan Brown, Verónica Montalva, Duncan Thomas, and Andrea Velásquez. Probable Causation Episode 42: Andrea Velásquez. “Family Violence and Football: The Effect of Unexpected Emotional Cues on Violence Behavior” by David Card and Gordon B. Dahl. “Frustration, Euphoria, and Violent Crime” by Ignacio Munyo and Martin A. Rossi. “Emotional Judges and Unlucky Juveniles” by Ozkan Eren and Naci Mocan. “Nonfatal Injuries to Law Enforcement Officers: A Rise in Assaults” by Hope M. Tiesman, Melody Gwilliam, Srinivas Konda, Jeff Rojek, and Suzanne Marsh. “Emotional Reactivity and Police Expertise in Use-of-Force Decision-Making” by Vivian Ta, Brian Lande, and Joel Suss. “Do Police Make Too Many Arrests?: The Effect of Enforcement Pullbacks on Crime” by Sungwoo Cho, Felipe Conclaves, and Emily Weisburst. “The Effect of Minority Peers on Future Arrests Quantity and Quality” by Roman Rivera. “Police Officer Assignment and Neighborhood Crime” by Bocar Ba, Patrick Bayer, Nayoung Rim, Roman Rivera, and Modibo Sidibé. “Strengthening Police Oversight: Impacts of Misconduct Investigators on Police Officer Behavior” by Andrew Jordan and Taeho Kim. “Does Black and Blue Matter? An Experimental Investigation of Race and Perceptions of Police, and Legal Compliance” by Mackenzie Alston and Emily Owens. “High-Frequency Location Data Shows that Race Affects the Likelihood of Being Stopped and Fined for Speeding” by Pradhi Aggarwal, Alec Brandon, Ariel Goldszmidt, Justin Holz, John A. List, Ian Muir, Greg Sun, and Thomas Yu.

Laura Khoury talks about the mental health effects of prison in Norway. “Prison, Mental Health, and Family Spillovers” by Manudeep Bhuller, Laura Khoury, and Katrine V. Løken. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The Effect of Incarceration on Mortality” by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver. “The Health Effects of Prison” by Randi Hjalmarsson and Matthew J. Lindquist. “Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment” by Mandeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.

David Eil talks with Joanna Schwartz about her book, "Shielded: How the Police Became Untouchable." *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!  

Allison Harris talks about increasing the civic engagement of people with felony convictions. "Registering Returning Citizens to Vote” by Jennifer Doleac, Laurel Eckhouse, Eric Foster-Moore, Allison Harris, Hannah Walker, and Ariel White. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Can Incarcerated Felons be (Re)integrated into the Political System? Results from a Field Experiment” by Alan S. Gerber, Gregory A. Huber, Marc Meredith, Daniel R. Bigger, and David J. Hendry. “The Politics of the Restoration of Ex-felon Voting Rights: The Case of Iowa” by Marc Meredith and Michael Morse. “Using Causal Forests to Predict Treatment Heterogeneity: An Application to Summer Jobs” by Jonathan David and Sara B. Heller. "Estimation and Inference of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Random Forests" by Stefan Wager and Susan Athey. “Civic Responses to Police Violence” by Desmond And and John Tebes. [Working Paper]. “Mobilized by Injustice: Criminal Justice Contact, Political Participation, and Race” by Hannah L. Walker. Bonus Episode 10 of Probable Causation: Hannah Walker.

Matthew Ross talks about how field training officers affect police use of force. “The Effect of Field Training Officers on Police Use of Force” by Chandon Adger, Matthew Ross, and CarlyWill Sloan. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “A Few Bad Apples? Racial Bias in Policing” by Felipe Goncalves & Steven Mello. “Does Race Matter for Police Use of Force? Evidence from 911 Calls” by Mark Hoekstra and CarlyWill Sloan. [American Economic Review forthcoming]. “Randomized Controlled Trial of Social Interaction Police Training” by Kyle McLean, Scott E. Wolfe, Jeff Rojek, Geoffrey P. Alpert, and Michael R. Smith. “Is Police Training an Effective Intervention for Addressing Disparities?” by Hunter Johnson, Stephen L. Ross, and Steve Mello. [Available from the authors]. “Can You Build a Better Cop? Experimental Evidence on Supervision, Training, and Policing in the Community” by Emily Owens, David Weisburd, Karen L. Amendola, and Geoffrey P. Alpert. “Learning By Doing in Law Enforcement” by Jeremy West. “The Effect of Minority Peers on Future Arrest Quantity and Quality” by Roman Rivera. “Peer Effects in Police Use of Force” by Justin Holz, Roman Rivera and Bocar Ba. “Whose Help is on the Way? The Importance of Individual Police Officers in Law Enforcement Outcomes” by Emily Weisburst. “A Cognitive View of Police Misconduct” by Oendrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur, and Anuj Shah [Paper available from the authors]. “Proud to Belong: The Impact of Ethics Training on Police Officers” by Donna Harris, Oana Borcan, Danila Serra, Henry Telli, Bruno Schettini, and Stefan Dercon. Episode 73 of Probable Causation: Danila Serra.

Graeme Blair talks about the effects of community policing in the Global South. “Community Policing Does Not Build Citizen Trust in Police or Reduce Crime in the Global South” by Graeme Blair, Jeremy M. Weinstein, Fotini Christia, Eric Arias, Emile Badran, Robert A. Blair, Ali Cheema, Thiemo Fetzer, Guy Grossman, Dotan Haim, Rebecca Hanson, Ali Hasanain, Ben Kachero, Dorothy Kronick, Benjamin Morse, Robert Muggah, Matthew Nanes, Tara Slough, Nico Ravanilla, Jacob N. Shapiro, Barbara Silva, Pedro C. L. Souza, Lily Tsai, and Anna Wilke. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Community Policing, Chicago Style” by Wesley G. Skogan and Susan M. Hartnett. “Impact Evaluation of the LAPD Community Safety Partnership” by Sydney Kahmann, Erin Hartman, Jorja Leap, and P. Jeffrey Brantingham. “Crime, Insecurity, and Community Policing: Experiments on Building Trust” by Graeme Blair, Fotini Christia, Jeremy M. Weinstein, Eric Arias, Emile Badran, Robert A. Blair, Ali Cheema, Thiemo Fetzer, Guy Grossman, Dotan Haim, Rebecca Hanson, Ali Hasanain, Ben Kachero, Dorothy Kronick, Benjamin Morse, Robert Muggah, Matthew Nanes, Tara Slough, Nico Ravanilla, Jacob N. Shapiro, Barbara Silva, Pedro C. L. Souza, Lily Tsai, and Anna Wilke. [Forthcoming book.]

Sara Heller and Max Kapustin talk about the effects of the READI program on gun violence in Chicago. “Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago” by Monica P. Bhatt, Sara B. Heller, Max Kapustin, Marianne Bertrand, and Christopher Blattman. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Cure Violence: A Public Health Model to Reduce Gun Violence” by Jeffrey Butts, Caterina Gouvis Roman, Lindsay Bostwick, and Jeremy R. Porter. “Machine Learning Can Predict Shooting Victimization Well Enough to Help Prevent It” by Sara B Heller, Benjamin Jakubowski, Zubin Jelveh, and Max Kapustin. “The Enhanced Transitional Jobs Demonstration: Implementation and Early Impacts of the Next Generation of Subsidized Employment Programs” by Cindy Redcross, Bret Barden, Dan Bloom, Joseph Broads, Jennifer Thompson, Sonya Williams, Sam Elkins, Randall Jurus, Janae Bonus, Ada Tso et al. “Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack. “Reducing Crime and Violence: Experimental Evidence from Cognitive Behavioral Therapy in Liberia” by Christopher Blattman, Julian C. Jamison, and Margaret Sheridan. “Reducing Violence Without Police: A Review of Research Evidence” by Charles Branas, Shani Bugs, Jeffrey A. Butts, Anna Harvey, and Erin M. Kerrison. “Advance Peace Stockton, 2018-20 Evaluation Report” by Jason Corburn and Amanda Fukutome. “Implementation Evaluation of Roca, Inc.” by Abt Associates. “Reaching and Connecting: Preliminary Results from Chicago CRED's Impact on Gun Violence Involvement” by Northwestern Neighborhood & Network Initiative.

Emily Nix talks about how violence against women at work affects the victims, perpetrators, and firms. “Violence Against Women at Work” by Abi Adams-Prassl, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Sexual Harassment and Gender Inequality in the Labor Market” by Olle Folke and Johanna Rickne. “Incentives for Managers and Inequality Among Workers: Evidence from a Firm-Level Experiment” by Oriana Bandiera, Iwan Barankay, and Imran Rasul. “What Drives Differences in Management Practices?” by Nicholas Bloom, Erik Brynjolfsson, Lucia Foster, Ron Jarmin, Megha Patnaik, Itay Saporta-Eksten, and John Van Reenen. “When Harry Fired Sally: The Double Standard in Punishing Misconduct” by Mark Egan, Gregor Matvos, and Amit Seru. “Monitoring Harassment in Organizations” by Laura Boudreau, Sylvain Chassang, and Ada Gonzalez-Torres. [Working paper.]

Jeff Weaver talks about the long-term effects of parental and sibling incarceration. This episode was first posted in July 2019. "The Effect of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Disrupted Childhoods: Children of Women in Prison” by Jane A. Siegal. “Parental Arrest and Incarceration: How Does it Affect Children?” By Stephen B. Billings. “Incarceration Spillovers in Criminal and Family Networks” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad. “Doing Time Together: Love and Family in the Shadow of Prison” by Megan Comfort. "Intergenerational Effects of Incarceration" by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad. “Shared Punishment? The Impact of Incarcerating Fathers on Child Outcomes” by Kristiina Kuttunen, Martti Kaila, and Emily Nix. Draft available from authors upon request. "The Intergenerational Effects of Parental Incarceration" by Will Dobbie, Hans Grönqvist, Susan Niknami, Mårten Palme, and Mikael Priks. "The Cost of Bad Parents: Evidence from the Effects of Parental Incarceration on Children's Education" by Carolina Arteaga. “Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad. "Does Incarceration Increase Crime?" by Evan K. Rose and Yotam Shem-Tov. "The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith.

Analisa Packham talks about the effects of syringe exchange programs on HIV rates, opioid abuse, and crime. This episode was first posted in May 2019. "Are Syringe Exchange Programs Helpful or Harmful? New Evidence in the Wake of the Opioid Epidemic" by Analisa Packham. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Effectiveness of sterile needle and syringe programming in reducing HIV/AIDS among injecting drug users” — World Health Organization report. “Needle exchange programs and drug injection behavior” by Jeff DeSimone. “Needle exchange programs: Research suggests promise as an AIDS prevention strategy” — GAO report. “Syringe exchange programs around the world: The global context” — GMHC report. “The Effects of Naloxone Access Laws on Opioid Abuse, Mortality, and Crime” by Jennifer L. Doleac and Anita Mukherjee

Elizabeth Luh talks about the effects of financial penalties in the criminal justice system. “The Impact of Financial Sanctions: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Driver Responsibility Fee Programs in Michigan and Texas” by Keith Finlay, Matthew Gross, Elizabeth Luh, and Michael Mueller-Smith. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Drawing Blood from Stones: Legal Debt andSocial Inequality in the Contemporary United States” by Alexes Harris, Heather Evans, and Katherine Beckett. “Fines and Financial Wellbeing” by Steven Mello. [Working paper.] ”Does Punishment Compel Payment? Driver's License Suspensions and Fine Delinquency” by Ryan E. Kessler. [Working paper.] “Disparate Fine Collection: Evidence using Chicago Parking Tickets” by Elizabeth Luh. [Working paper.] “Punishment and Deterrence: Evidence from Drunk Driving” by Benjamin Hansen. “Learning from Law Enforcement” by Libor Dusek and Christian Traxler. “Criminalizing Poverty: The Consequences of Court Fees in a Randomized Experiment” by Devah Pager, Rebecca Goldstein, Helen Ho, and Bruce Western. “Measuring Child Exposure to the U.S. Justice System: Evidence from Longitudinal Links between Survey and Administrative Data” by Keith Finlay, Michael Mueller-Smith, and Brittany Street. “Criminal Court Fees, Earnings, and EExpenditures: A Multi-state RD Analysis of Survey and Administrative Data” by Carl Lieberman, Elizabeth Luh, and Michael Mueller-Smith. [Working paper available from the authors upon request.] “The (Non)Economics of Criminal Fines and Fees” by Tyler Giles. “A Proposal to End Regressive Taxation through Law Enforcement” by Michael Makowsky. “Revenue-Motivated Law Enforcement: Evidence, Consequences, and Policy Solutions” by Michael Makowsky.

Sofia Amaral talks about a police intervention in India that aims to reduce sexual harassment in public. “Sexual Harassment in Public Spheres and Police Patrolling: Experimental Evidence from Urban India” by Sofia Amaral, Girija Borker, Nathan Fiala, Anjani Kumar, Nishith Prakash, and Maria Micaela Sviatschi. [Working paper available from the authors.] *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Safety First: Perceived Risk of Street Harassment and Educational Choices of Women” by Girija Borker. “Violence and Female Labor Supply” by Zahra Siddique. “Demand for Safe Spaces: Avoiding Harassment and Stigma” by Florence Kondylis, Arianna Legovini, Kate Vyborny, Astrid Zwager, and Luiza Andrade. “Women's Mobility and Labor Supply Experimental Evidence from Pakistan” by Erica Field and Kate Vyborny.

Alex Albright talks about money bail and the effects of bail reform. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Kevin Wilson talks about a new approach for handling non-emergency health calls to 911: a nurse triage line in Washington, DC. “Nurses in the 911 Loop Improve Care: A Randomized Controlled Trial” by Chrysanthi Hatzimasoura, Rebecca A. Johnson, Kevin H. Wilson, Robert P. Holman, Ryan T. Moore, and David Yokum. Minor correction: During this conversation, Kevin mentioned that nurses could book primary care appointments for callers. This is not quite accurate. Instead, nurses may refer callers to Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs) with walk-in availability for primary care and book the caller a ride to the FQHC. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “A Community Response Approach to Mental Health and Substance Abuse Crises Reduced Crime” by Thomas S. Dee and Jaymes Pyne. Episode 80 of Probable Causation: Thomas Dee. Episode 77 of Probable Causation: Elizabeth Linos. “Ten Solutions for Emergency Department Crowding” by Robert W. Derlet and John R. Richards. “A Randomized Control Trial Evaluating the Effects of Police Body-worn Cameras” by David Yokum, Anita Ravishankar, and Alexander Coppock. Episode 78 of Probable Causation: Sandip Sukhtankar. Episode 75 of Probable Causation: Panka Bencsik. Episode 67 of Probable Causation: David Phillips.