Podcast appearances and mentions of mike podhorzer

A terrific round table of Alisyn Camerota, Bill Kristol, and Mike Podhorzer join Harry to analyze a week in which only a couple things went right for Trump this week, but they were big-ticket items. The House R's dragged the “big beautiful bill” over the finish line by a single vote. And the Supreme Court gave Trump a big victory that will permit him to fire leaders of certain important agencies without cause. But otherwise the courts forcefully rejected Trump's overreaching executive orders. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Yesterday, we spoke with one of the most brilliant minds in politics in America, and one of the most brilliant in the world: Anat Shenker-Osorio. She's a messaging guru, who I met when I was reporting my book, The Persuaders — there's a whole chapter about her in it — and ever since at The Ink we have often turned to her whenever we need the best advice.But she's so much more than a messaging guru. She's a comedian. She is a person who, in spite of her messaging prowess, will always say something that really pokes and inflames people, but she does it intentionally, to provoke them into seeing what they might not otherwise have recognized. And in a moment when so many people do not know what to say, or how to say it — or seem to have lost the use of their vocal cords and spines — she is someone we can ask to tell people what they should be saying, because she knows just how to frame the most important questions of this time, and has answers for so many of them.For those who've been looking for leadership from above, she made it very clear that nicely asking Democrats to do something has never brought about real change. So stop doing that. Stop trying to get Chuck Schumer to do something.This conversation is an incredibly practical guide to what you need to — and can — do. Anyone and everyone can lead: we make the future, and it's time to do it by stepping up. If you want to, you are a leader!Congrats! Sorry. But congrats!You can start by creating social proof locally — which is to say, create a perception in your community that lots of people feel the way you feel. You might start with signs, hats, talking to people, or, as she put it, the painting of a barn. Just pick something, and get started. And soon enough you'll be leading.If you're not sure where to jump in, Anat's team keeps track of actions across the country, so visit her ever-evolving list of Ways to Resist. And read her Freedom over Fascism toolkit for tons of ideas and insight into how to communicate all of the ideas you'll find below.We know some of you prefer reading to watching, so we're publishing text excerpts of the conversation below. If you missed our live conversation, we encourage you to watch the entire video above.In the public interest, we are opening this video and transcript to all. But we're also asking candidly that folks support the half dozen or so people who now write for and edit and otherwise support the work of The Ink by becoming a paying subscriber today.Take a moment to support fearless, independent reporting, and to help us keep bringing you conversations like this one. Or give a gift or group subscription.Your support allows us to open these ideas to as many people as possible, with no paywall.I wanted to start maybe on a positive-ish note by asking you who is telling the right story right now? Who do you see in the pro-democracy movement? And I know that your answer to this may not take a lot of time because it may not be a very long list of people, but who is telling the right story?Well, let's start with a story that you helped bring to light, in your Live with Senator Chris Murphy. I thought he was absolutely spot-on in many ways. I don't know whether we'll come back to this, but I thought his response in particular when you held his feet somewhat to the fire about why other Democratic leaders are not stepping up. That was probably him at his most diplomatic. But I thought his description of reality was really spot on.Unsurprisingly, he's an MVP, is always there, always prescient, always saying the thing, speaking truth, not just to power, but ensuring we're speaking truth to each other.AOC, Jasmine Crockett, obviously. Governor Pritzker's responses yesterday were extraordinary. Exactly what's needed. And then outside of the elected official space, there's a lot going on. There are burgeoning protest movements, both from known organizations like Indivisible and Move On and Working Families Party, but also from brand newbies that just self-assembled on Substack, like the 50501 movement, and the burgeoning general strike movement.And because there's no up without a down, as they say, who is getting it most dramatically and maybe for you infuriatingly wrong?Do you want to open this Pandora's box? You know, the list is very, very, very long.One might say infinite.Most infuriatingly, it's the siren song of the authoritarian that they are fomenting a counterrevolution against a revolution that never occurred. This has always been their story, time and place immemorial, that you're being attacked, you're being put upon by some usurping minority, whether that be immigrants, whether that be Roma people in Hungary, whether that be people seeking asylum in Australia, whether that be Southern Europeans in the case of Brexit, whether that be trans people. It's always some other who is coming to get you and they have amassed too much power.And so I think what is most infuriating beyond just the absolute unwillingness to locate a single vertebra let alone a spine is the layering on of the misdiagnosis of why we are here when we blame when we make believe that the people with too much power in our society are undocumented immigrants and trans people. If it weren't so pathetic and sad it would be funny. So I think that that is what is particularly infuriating.Talk to me about specific moments in the last month where you've seen someone give a press conference, you've seen someone give a floor speech — give me the hall of shame because I consider you one of the only people, frankly, who I could ask to do that and you'll just do it.I mean, who am I most disappointed by? I think I'm extraordinarily disappointed by many of our senators. I'm thinking in particular, really sadly, because of all the extraordinary work that I know movement groups like Lucha in Arizona went to, putting him into power. But Ruben Gallego, not only refusing to stand up to this administration but also actively sponsoring the Laken Riley bill, which let's not kid ourselves, is about eliminating due process rights. It is about creating an unjust — even more unjust — legal system in the name of genuflecting at the altar of immigrants are the problem.I think that Amy Klobuchar has said things that are really infuriating and incensing. I think obviously Chuck Schumer's stance of, “We'll just rap about the price of eggs.” Hakeem Jeffries, in a very similar vein, and just a lot of, “Well, we can't do anything. We don't have any power.” Excuse making.It's so interesting when you see a lot of the folks on TV and when you're under a Biden presidency or an Obama presidency maybe you don't notice the mediocrity as much because it doesn't like risk the republic — and now to see some of those same people, they're not evil or awful the way that we're talking about on the right, but they are so profoundly mediocre and not up to the task of responding to a once-in-a-century emergency.You know, I referenced earlier before the conversation that you had with Senator Murphy and I was reflecting, because obviously I spend a lot of time listening to people because if you want to be decent at messaging, you have to spend a lot of time listening to people.And by listening to people, I mean in focus groups where we are asking them deep questions, we are extracting metaphors, we are uncovering their underlying assumptions and beliefs about what is going on. What is the origin story behind it? What are their desired solutions?And so I think a lot about what people's underlying motivations are, and the psychology of how they came to be where they are and doing what they're doing. And I think when I think about these folks who have risen to the halls of power, it kind of makes sense because to be honest, that they're behaving in these milquetoast ways.Is that what it takes to get there?Well, partly it's what it takes to get there, but also it is an accurate fact that that has worked for them. The things that they have done in their life have brought them to The New York Times newsroom, because — let's just widen the net of culpability a little bit here — has brought them to the pinnacle of journalism, has brought them to the pinnacle of politics, has brought them to the pinnacle of whatever it is I assume they desired to do once they became old enough to have a thing that they really wanted to do.And so… If taking certain steps and engaging in certain ways and refusing to upset people has been successful or at least successful within a trajectory that you define for yourself, then it actually kind of makes a lot of sense that random lady with big hair being like, “What the actual f**k are you doing? There's a hostile takeover of our government happening on your watch, friend.”It feels like, well, this has worked for me and it has achieved the things that I desire to achieve. So why would I change course?So here's something I'm struggling with. I think part of what explains the election loss going back to November is this problem you and I have talked about before of a tendency to kind of misappraise what is really, really salient with people. And you are someone who studies this and measures it. There are things you and I are worried about. There are things you've been screaming about that it turns out, way more people should be worried about it than are.If you were right about the election, if I was right about the election, a lot more people should have been concerned about things that, maybe did not reach the top rank.And so even now, now that we're in this presidency, I struggle with my own sense of how grave this is, how serious this is.This is a coup. This is that. And then sometimes I just, I live in New York City. Like I've walked down the street. I see people living their lives. These are people, 90 percent of them vote for Democrats, but you can just tell, if you sit in a restaurant, you hear conversations or you watch a normal TV show, the Jennifer Hudson talk show, you see normal life. And normal people living their lives are not living as though, as Senator Murphy says, this is the most serious crisis since the civil war and we may be a few months from irreversibly losing democracy.So my maybe difficult question for you is, is this thing that you and I share, this concern that everybody watching this shares. Is this concern out of touch in some way, maybe accurate, but is it out of sync with how regular people read things? Are we too ahead of the curve? Is it not landing with people?Talk to me about that disconnect.Yeah, it is not landing with people.So I want to say two things about that. The first is that in the lead-up to the election, I coined this phrase, the credulity chasm. And what the credulity chasm means is that when we look at the fundamental attitude that was most predictive of voting for Harris versus doing something else, and by something else I mean voting for Trump, staying at home, voting third party, etc.It wasn't, “Wow, that Project 2025 agenda, that sounds real sweet. That's like a Baskin Robbins tasty level of flavors. I'm excited.” It was whether or not people believed the agenda would come true. So this notion that the country has shifted rightwards is actually not supported by data.What has actually happened — and what happened through the election — was what the people who got it were saying: “No, it's for realsies. This is not hyperbolic. This threat is real. And all of this will come to pass and come to fruition.”And in fact, there's a Project 2025 tracker that shows that already within this first month of being in a hostile takeover, they have made good on one-third of the Project 2025 agenda. Just a little side note.So that credulity chasm, which I would argue we are still in — it is a basic facet of human psychology, and we see this among respondents in many, many parts of the world.This is not a uniquely U.S. phenomenon, but there's a U.S. layer on top of it that John Jost, the psychologist at NYU, calls system justification theory. Basically, there's kind of a fundamental human need to feel like I can predict what's going to happen. Tomorrow is going to be somewhat like today. Things are more or less okay. Things happen for a reason. Good things happen to good people. Bad things happen to bad people. There's a fundamental explanation for the universe because to question that and to really truly be living within that — the badness or the recognition of the badness, I should say — it requires a level of upset and a level of agitation and a level of awareness that is understandably very difficult for most people, because for most people, the basic facets of life, like being able to see a doctor, being able to help out your parents when their water heater breaks and being able to send your kid to university, et cetera, is pretty challenging.And so to ask people to layer on another thing is a lot. And I think that what we are experiencing over and over again, and it's been happening for a while. It's the frogs in boiling water problem, where we truly think this is a hot tub. And a little toasty, get a little cozy. But, you know, it's winter and a hot tub is nice and winter in most parts of the country. And I'm joking, but not by much.Anticipating this is actually why it is absolutely so fundamental that we be crystal clear and that our leaders be crystal clear that what's happening is in fact what's happening because not every problem that is named can be faced, but zero problems that we refuse to name and refuse to recognize can actually be faced. And this is where I think the strategy of hat in hand, please, sir, may I have a tuppence begging Democrats to locate a spine is wrong. And we need to stop pushing in that direction.Okay, but I guess what I'm wondering is, and I wonder this very personally, because I'm afraid that I'm doing it wrong.When I see Elon Musk shadow presidenting his way through these agencies. It basically gets rid of Congress. I mean, it's as grave a series of things as you know. And I talk about Elon Musk's anti-constitutional coup. I feel like I am describing reality as clearly as I can. I feel like I'm saying things that, given what I understand about this country and what people claim to care about, should be ringing bells.And I also feel like I can almost hear with that double consciousness, people are not going to care about that. Everybody watching this is going to care about this, right? But not all the people not watching this, who actually outnumber the people watching this. And so, is that even just doing it wrong? Like, should it just be, “Your grandma's social security check is in danger?” Like, just the practical things?Because this kind of parallels the whole thing in the election about crime and eggs and democracy, all that stuff. Am I doing it wrong when I really fixate on the anti-constitutional coup by Elon Musk?You're right to fixate on it. You're wrong in voter-facing and public-facing messaging to call it that. And it's for the reasons you've already intuited. The Constitution is an abstraction, even though it is actually a physical document, I am aware. Whenever we are in the language of protecting institutions, protecting norms, protecting democracy — democracy never bought anyone dinner.And in point of fact, the way that most people, the way that the average American thinks about democracy, if they think about it at all, is the system as it is presently construed. The thing that we have now. And by the way, the thing that we have now, I'm not loving. I'm not very fond of it.So anytime our language, our messaging implies that what we are asking for is a return to January 19th, 2025, meaning right before inauguration, people weren't psyched about that day either. And so the answer is, As you've already intuited, is how do we make it person-facing, voter-facing, American-facing? How do we make it tangible?So what do we say? We say: “This is a government of the bullies for the billionaires.” Trump and the billionaires who bought him, Musk — you can name both of them, you can name either of them — are coming for your life and your livelihood. He is coming for your freedom. He is coming for your privacy. He is coming for your information. And he is conducting a hostile takeover of our government so he can take our money.”That's the simplest way of expressing it.But do you think that is working? Right now?It's not happening enough. But, you know, I can tell you from experimentation, both within focus groups and within our own internal polling that we continuously do. Yes, the most the highest impact way that we can characterize what Musk is doing is, “a hostile takeover of our government and an armed robbery of our money and our and our very deliberate there.But ultimately, there is absolutely nothing that we can say that will ever be as loud as what we can do.Yes, we should be calling our representatives. And yes, we are rightly incensed about the fact that these people who purportedly have sworn an oath to govern in our name apparently can't be bothered to work on Fridays and, you know, don't want to use the mechanisms at their disposal to throw sand in the wheels of government in order to stop this hostile takeover.Infuriating. Rightly so. Call them. Call the Republicans, too. But understand what has stopped autocracy in other places and within our own history, when we think about the civil rights movement, when we think about ACT UP, when we think about the movement to get the Americans with Disabilities Act, and women's suffrage.Imagine if the Montgomery bus boycott folks were like, “I know, here's an idea. Let's ask the Democrats if they would pretty please end this whole completely unjust, horrifying segregation thing.”Or when folks newly in the throes of the HIV AIDS crisis, dying en masse from this disease that apparently came out of nowhere, watching their loved ones suffer and struggle, if they were like, “You know what we should do? We should ask the Democrats if they would pretty please do something about this.”No, that isn't what they did. They broke into the New York Stock Exchange, as you may know, and they hung a banner from where the bell gets rung saying, “Sell Burroughs Wellcome” which is the pharmaceutical corporation that was making AZT at the time.And sure enough, by the end of the month, the price had dropped. And not that much later, there had been an appropriations bill, the Ryan White bill, to actually bring money into this fight and force research and so on.And so what we do is so much louder than what we say, because what we do, people being out in the world saying, physically opposing this and speaking about it and writing songs about it and making parodies and making TikToks and painting “F**k the Fascists” on the side of their barn.That is actually what sways public opinion. What sways public opinion is what we call social proof. People do the things they think people like them do.And so it's this chicken-and-egg problem where you're walking around New York or I'm walking around the Bay area or someone's walking around in the middle of America and you don't see anyone else freaking out. You don't see anyone else angry. You don't see anyone else upset. And so you're like, I guess really nothing's happening. And so it's about the doing more than it is about the saying.This is so important what you're saying. And it's reframing something for me.It's almost like when we talk about protest, mass mobilization right now, resistance, I think the frame in people's mind is, the object of that is the right. You're protesting against the right, you're resisting the right. And you're hoping for maybe Democrats to be part of this. You're the subject opposing that object and you're kind of inviting them to be part of the subject.And you're reframing this like, no, no, no, the Democrats are like a second object. They're not here. They're there. They're another thing you are mobilizing against for different reasons. It's a different kind of mobilization. But you are mobilizing against their passivity and then against the things the right is doing.Does that sound right?I mean, yes and no. I think… and feel free to lob the charge of hypocrisy at me. Bring it on, because I'm about to perform a big old hypocrisy on you.I'm obviously extraordinarily pissed off at Democrats. I have spent the last many years of my career helping elect Democrats. And so you can understand how it feels especially galling to me and many of you. However, it is the fact that when our public discourse — this is where you're going to come at me, come at me because I'm guilty. Do as I say, not as I post, I would say.When we are loudly saying, “Democrats aren't doing this, Democrats aren't doing that, Democrats are weak here, Democrats are weak there, Democrats refuse.” Then that is the narrative. That is the discourse that is in the public. And insofar as people continue to view the Democrats as the rightful centerpiece of the opposition — which is a reasonable conclusion, they're purportedly the opposition party in a duopoly — it looks like the regime is unopposed. What the regime is doing is fine. People are largely O.K. with it.And so because in life you cannot actually make other people do things — it is very, very unfortunate. It's one of the hard lessons of parenting. You can't actually physically make people do things. You can only really focus on what you're doing.I'm not saying stop pressuring them, but I'm saying what would actually cause a sea change among the calcified leadership — and yes, hashtag not all Democrats, there are extraordinary Democrats who are doing the right thing, as we said earlier — is when there is a mass movement.Actually they're not leaders, they don't go first, literally, to lead means to go first. That's really all it means. And so that means that every single one of you listening right now: If you want to, you're a leader. If you want to, you're a leader.Let's look, for example, at the Black Lives Matter resurgence that happened in 2020. During that protest, during that June, public opinion of BLM moved ahead by 12 points. It was only when the protests stopped And the right-wing coordinated backlash happened that opinion swayed back, which was an intentional thing.The same thing with the Muslim ban. When Trump was first promising the Muslim ban during his first run, it polled popular.But when it actually happened, and people took the extraordinary step of driving to the airport. And you live in New York. Nobody drives — your wife doesn't drive you to the airport. I don't know your business, but I'm telling you that. Who drives to LAX? Who drives to SFO? Nobody drives to these airports. That is not a thing that happens to everyday Americans.It's showing, not telling — showing, not telling — that they are against this. That is actually what altered people's perceptions of whether or not the Muslim ban was okay or not.So that's really it. And that is what drags Democrats along. It's ordinary people showing that they disagree.So this is so helpful and you are always so helpful. Even though I've spent so long engaging with your work, there's like a particular unlock here. And a lot of people are responding to that also. I'm just going to try to summarize.I hear your point on managing the correct level of infighting or criticizing Dems. You talk about calling your representative, pressuring them to do things.Your idea about painting the barn really struck me because a lot of people — everyone who subscribes to The Ink, all their comments are like, “I call everybody, I do this, nothing's happening.”And I don't think a lot of people have thought of it as what you said, which is, yes, you're trying to pressure some leaders, but a very tangible thing you can do is increase the perception of people around you about the number of people who feel this way.Exactly. Because that is something you can do and you can measure. I'm not saying don't do the calling your reps and stuff, but that stuff just feels so remote to people I know.And people are so frustrated, like changing the perception about the number of people who feel that way around you. That is like a marching order.And the other thing to recognize and to realize, and we have a running list that we just keep for ourselves for our team of the actions that are happening right now. It is by no means comprehensive. It couldn't possibly be comprehensive — stuff is popping up everywhere. It's just the stuff that comes across our radar.Do you know how many people go to the average school board meeting in most towns? Do you know how quickly and easily you and two, three, four of your friends will be the only people at the school board meeting?A lot of what has happened in our politics is that we actually stopped organizing. And a lot of the heroic, extraordinary, wonderful organizations that I admire and respect and like count as colleagues, we all became so fixated on channeling ourselves through the electoral process. And that means that instead of organizing, everybody moved to field and called it organizing. And by field, I mean getting people registered, getting people to vote. Fine, do that. I'm not knocking it.But that's not organizing. That is not organizing. And we need to stop kidding ourselves. Organizing is finding out who runs the PTA in your town? Who runs the biggest church? Who are the Boy Scout leaders? Who are the Girl Scout leaders? Are you actually talking to people and radicalizing them in the original definition? You know, radical just means “to the root,” right? Are you actually radicalizing them in a new political understanding of what is happening? Why is it happening? And what is the origin of it? Where does it come from?So that they can withstand all of these constant right-wing drumbeats that say it's the immigrants or it's the Black people or it's the trans people or it's whomever, it's the Muslims. So that they actually have an authentic consciousness and that they themselves then are talking to other people.That's organizing.And so go local. I cannot emphasize enough, especially if you live in a smaller place, especially if you live in a red state, in a purple district, whatever.You show up at your school board meeting and the two of you or the three of you or the four of you, you show up at your city council, you're the only people there. These fascist policies, yes, they are being constructed at the national level. Of course, they are. But they have to be implemented at the local level. And it is at the local level.Let's just take, for instance, Aurora, Colorado. That is where they want to massively expand a detention facility. In order to continue with their evil draconian plan of concentration camps for people who happen to not have been born here and, you know, speak English with the wrong accent, apparently.So Aurora is not Manhattan. It is not Los Angeles. It is not D.C. It is a particular town with a particular city council with a particular set of folks. And right now there is a battle going on to define Aurora, to massively expanded detention facility there.People in that town and surrounding communities could go and say, “We are Aurora.” They could do food trucks of every ethnicity, and nationality. They could do giant dance parties saying, “We are Aurora. This is what we believe.”I'm going to go to Aurora as they do all this. I mean, as God is my witness, I will. This is my pledge: I am going to make a 10,000 or however many food truck caravan from every contiguous state to D.C, in order to have the largest bhangra, K-pop, salsa, samba, polka — I'm not intentionally leaving out any kind of music fill in all the musics — dance party to show not tell that immigrants are awesome.Because we can not live, we can not survive in a dual narrative or a three-part narrative in which immigrants are either villains, which is of course what the right says, or they're victims, which is all too often, sadly, where we have been in advocacy. What I call the ay pobrecitosnarrative. You know, with due respect to the Statue of Liberty, give me your tired or your poor. Most people feel tired and poor. They're not really out seeking that. Or the third narrative, that being immigrants are our valets. You know, they do the jobs that no one wants. They help us.Immigrants are awesome. Immigrants are joy. Immigrants are life. Immigrants are interesting. They're entrepreneurs. You know, America is supposed to be the land of the free and the home of the brave. And that's a good thing. And so let's make it that way, as you recently wrote.One of the only silver linings for me of this whole era is that the thing that I wrote about before I met you, before I did Persuaders, was a book about billionaires. And it was very difficult to convince people to care. A lot of liberal and even progressive people were like, “Why are you going after these people? Like, sure, they're not the best, but like, really? These are your enemies? You know, Bill Gates or whoever?”It was actually hard in 2018 when that book came out. It was hard. I was often on the back foot, right? I really had to make a case. People were very, very skeptical of why anyone would say anything negative about the ones who give money away and do all this stuff.It is really different. Seven years later, like everybody gets it. Everybody understands what oligarchs are, you know?Thanks to you.Well, I don't think that's the case. It's thanks to AOC and Bernie and Elizabeth Warren and others. But I wonder whether you think, again, with Elon, the oligarch frame, the warning of oligarchy — is this as salient and helpful with the mass public as we seem to think it is?Having people truly understand that this is a government by the bullies for the billionaires, that concept.I guess just the wrinkle is in a country where still a lot of people kind of want to be billionaires, is it as cool a message as I think it is?Yeah.It is, in fact, the case, as people often report, that in America, no one is poor. They're just pre-rich, right? We're all just temporarily embarrassed. You know, we just haven't made our billions. Oprah hasn't given us the car or whatever she's supposed to give us. So there is still that very, very, very deep kind of yearning and with it an admiration and a cultishness around the extraordinarily wealthy.But wow, are people pissed at the rich. I mean, that may be the only thing that has bipartisan agreement in this country is just how extraordinarily furious people are, because I think the fundamental difference is that in the olden times, this cult of people are rich because they're made out of awesome, because they're uniquely smart, because they're uniquely capable and hardworking and so on. That's largely been punctured. And people understand.So it's not just that they're rich. It's how they're rich, why they're rich. And the fact that the reason that they're rich is because they've stolen from you. It's that connection.Because sure, people can aspire to have their own, you know, whatever their dream is. In my case, an extensive shoe collection. But, you know, you do you.But the notion that the reason why people have so much money is because you don't — that is increasingly salient. And that's really the crux of it.Now, where this gets hard — and this brings us back to the earlier conversation of you can't just articulate the problem for people, although that is absolutely extraordinarily essential — they also have to feel that the articulation of the problem lends itself to something that they can do.And so in the universe in which what people are “supposed to do” is petition their government in some way or another. And I say that broadly, right? So vote, register to vote, get other people to vote, call their member of Congress, ask for policy change.It's extraordinary the degree to which people, even low information, low engagement folks, think the jig is up on that particular theory of change.And so I think we are now in a place in which people need to be directed, their anger and their ire need to be directed into what I am calling the “Mangione without murder” strategy. Without murder. Hear that whole phrase.You really do know how to coin a phrase.Yeah, we don't need to be murdering people. I just want to say on the record here that I'm telling you. Anti-murder. I'm anti-murder, whatever you heard, whatever they told you. Sharp messages, no sharp weapons.That's right.Imagine if we actually had people doing, you know, die-ins where corporate CEOs are. If we actually had people going to the places, it's easy to look up. These motherfuckers are all hypocrites. They all go to church. Why aren't we showing up in the parking lots of their churches? And this could both be MAGA Republicans and CEOs. Singing hymns that are actually about what Jesus preached. When they get out of church, say it to their faces.And so I think that the challenge with the billionaire articulation is not that it is not landing. You are correct in your supposition that it is absolutely landing. It's that it quickly becomes, well, every election is a contest between their billionaires and our billionaires. And so the solution, which presumably has been, well, that's why you should vote for Democrats.I know people are really responding to how clear your advice is. And I think it's making a lot of people feel like they know what to do more clearly than they did before. So thank you. I want to go back to that and compile all of your advice. Let's focus on marching orders for everybody here.People are in agreement with you about how grave this is and how serious it is. People feel incredibly undefended by elected Democrats in general and are not expecting them to change very soon. People are doing things already, like calling Congress, but maybe don't know the third, fourth, and fifth things to do.Can you just give us some very, very, very tangible marching orders?So the first thing I would say is in the preservation of your own mental health and wellbeing. Pick a thing that you care about and can be motivated to stay the course with.For some folks, that's going to be education. For some folks, that's going to be immigrant rights. For some folks, that's going to be policing, whatever. There are so many things happening at once that we can all become like cats with a laser pointer and make ourselves nuts.So you pick the thing. You go as local as possible about that thing. And so if it is education, just take that for instance, then you decide with yourself and a handful of your friends, you have a potluck beforehand, you do you. Do something fun and entertaining and get together beforehand. You look up in the public record when the next school board meeting is in your local community. And you go there and you make statements about ensuring that all children have the freedom to learn the truth of our past, and that all children have the freedom to belong and be who they are within their schools. And you oppose any kind of effort to implement the draconian fascist agenda in your own community.So that is one thing. You can do that within the context of immigrant rights. You can do that in the context of disability justice, racial justice, et cetera.The next piece of advice is to wear your beliefs. Get yourself a “Fabulously Fighting Fascism” t-shirt. One of the things that is most important to the right and to any authoritarian force is to suck our joy, is to suck our uniqueness, is to suck our our being. I say all the time, put up a billboard in the middle of nowhere that shows people across the gender spectrum just having themselves the best possible time, and say “Fabulously fighting fascism.”You will get so much local media and local attention, even if it's in the middle of nowhere because it is a saucy message. Show, not tell that you do not agree with this, that you refuse it.So I think the name of the game is really resistance. refusal, and ridicule. And ridicule is a key and essential element that I have danced around.Join a union, if you can join a union. Support union efforts. That is a place where deep and authentic organizing actually happens and needs to happen much, much more expansively. One of the most important keys to fighting autocracy is a strong, integrated, active, in-your-face labor community.Before we go, to leave people on a note of hope, in a lot of the messaging that you do and the formal proper messages you draft for TV ads or other communication, there's a certain structure, which I wrote about in my book. It's often the beginning and the end where more hope and uplift come in and in the middle is where you explain the obstructions to that promiseA lot of people really can't see the after of this. It's very hard to see anything. I find it very difficult to visualize 2026. I find it very, very difficult to visualize 2035. I could see a scenario where it's totally fine, this thing blew over, it imploded, and my kids are just living a normal life, vaguely remembering this. And I could imagine a scenario in which most people I know don't live in this country anymore. It's so hard to picture the after.Can you help us picture the after in a hopeful way if we get this right, if we do all the things you're talking about?The fact that you can't picture 2026. I can't either. And that is either extraordinarily terrifying or fantastic. The reason why it is potentially fantastic is because it takes a fundamental rupture, a big rupture that we think that we have already had, but we have not — because we are still waking up in the morning and going to the store and answering our telephones and checking our social and getting our kids to school and all the things that, of course, we need to continue to do.That rupture has not happened for most people. And it is only in a fundamental rupture that we get a period — and obviously, the decimation of it is one of the most tragic and horrible things in American history. But Reconstruction wouldn't have happened without the Civil War. The New Deal wouldn't have happened without the decimation of the Gilded Age and God forbid, the Depression.Moments of extraordinary rupture are moments of extraordinary possibility where, as my colleague, Mike Podhorzer points out, pre the Revolution, when people were hanging out in the colonies, and trying, you know, to do the Boston Tea Party and to petition the king, “Hey, yo, like, we're not fond of this. We're not keen.”And I'm not discounting the fact that things were pretty bad for most people and enslavement and no women's rights and so on. I'm not making believe that that period was a beautiful era in American history.The only point that I'm making is that there has to be a rupture so fundamental that people are like, “Oh no, how about we just don't have a king? How about we just don't be a colony anymore? How about we decide that we are going to invent a new country from scratch?”Obviously not really from scratch because of the destruction and usurpation and genocide of Native people — again, I am not trying to say this was like a beautiful era.All I'm trying to say is that in the unknowing, in the what-the-f**k-is-going-to-come-next, is actually where invention comes. And it requires us recognizing that. To give you a tautology, the problem is made out of the problem, as we were discussing at the top of our conversation. To think that a system that is working largely as designed, to bring us representatives who, with notable and noteworthy and laudable exceptions, are not actually serving our interests and are not stepping up to the plate. To think that they would behave any differently is to not understand that the entire progressive movement is begging the master for money to buy tools to take down his house, and it always has been.And because we've continued to limp along in this, “But maybe we'll win this election, but maybe we'll get people to vote, but maybe we'll pass this one little policy,” is not to recognize the fact that actually within U.S. politics, there is no correlation between majority support for a policy and that policy passing. And so we have to stop thinking that tinkering at the edges of the old ways, as we have done, is going to yield a new result.And I don't know if this isn't sounding hopeful, but to me, it is always the case. The most fundamental truth of life is that the future is made out of the decisions that we take collectively.We make the future. What comes next will be decided on the basis of what we do. And that's up to us.Readers like you make The Ink possible and keep it independent. If you haven't already joined us, sign up today for our mailing list, support our work, and help build a free and fearless media future by becoming a paying subscriber. And if you're already a part of our community, thank you! We hope you'll consider giving a subscription to The Ink as a gift. Get full access to The.Ink at the.ink/subscribe

[Initially Released 11/07/23]Patrick Ruffini, pollster at Echelon Strategies, returns to talk about his new book PARTY OF THE PEOPLE - on the transition of the Republican Party from being dominated by wealthy, suburban white voters to a more blue-collar and increasingly-multi-racial coalition. In this conversation, Patrick lays out the data behind these shifts, what is driving the GOP's new-found success with blue-collar voters, why this movement came as a surprise to many, the balance of economic vs. cultural priorities, how Latino/AAPI/Black voters are increasingly persuadable audiences in elections, and expectations as to how these shifts will continue to define American politics for the foreseeable future.IN THIS EPISODEPatrick lays out the core thesis of Party of the People...Patrick's favorite data points that illustrate the changing face of the GOP...Patrick's take on the role of "educational attainment" in changing voting patterns...Patrick gives a quick tutorial on when and how Democrats have historically been the party of working-class Americans...How flawed 2012 exit polls have contributed to shifting party coalitions more than a decade later...Patrick's take on how the "In This House..." yard signs unwittingly speak to tensions within the Democratic coalition...Economic vs cultural drivers of voter behavior...Missteps and missed GOP opportunities from the trifecta control of government in 2017 and 2018...Mining recent data among Hispanic voters...What Patrick learned about border communities on a trip to the Rio Grande Valley...Why Lester Chang is important...Why Black voter behavior has been more stable than Latino and Asian voters...Patrick's take on the growing segment of biracial and multi-racial Americans...The impact of free trade and foreign policy on changing partisan coalitions...What Patrick learned in the process of writing his first book...AND 7:3 coalitional splits, anti-globalization sentiments, Joe Biden, blurbs, Brexit, George W. Bush, census buckets, charts and data, Hillary Clinton, Nate Cohn, Thomas Dewey, Tom Edsall, Ryan Enos, existential demographic crisis, fading historical patterns, faint echoes, frontier mentalities, the Great Recession, the green transition, Hamiltonian tendencies, illiberal populism, instinctive hawks, Andrew Jackson, jettisoning first principles, Chryl Laird, majority popular tendencies, mercantile progress, the New Deal, Barack Obama, Mike Podhorzer, Ronald Reagan, the Republican autopsy, rivalrous groups, Mitt Romney, sheepskin effects, David Shor, social taboos, Starr County, Steadfast Democrats, Harry Truman, Donald Trump, the UAW, Ismail White, white phenomenons....& more!

Harry unpacks Trump's victory with Mike Podhorzer, founder of the Analyst Institute and the Defend Democracy Project and perhaps the nation's #1 authority on polls and their foibles. Podhorzer resists the conventional wisdom that the election result is best explained by demographic shifts among certain voters such as Hispanic men or white women. If what's happened here happened in the Hungarian or Turkish elections, we wouldn't be looking at their exit polls to understand what happened. He rather analyzes the seeds of Trump's victory in a series of developments since 2008, including Supreme Court decisions and an outpouring of money from third parties. Podhorzer avers that Trump's policies have virtually no support in the electorate, pointing out how Trumpian candidates fared in down ballet races; however, Trump's success traces to a persuasive embodiment of widely held attitudes, in particular anti-incumbency, which has been a potent force around the world since COVID. That suggests that when Trump begins to put policies into effect, for example the promised mass deportation, it will prompt an electoral backlash. Podhorzer's core argument about the election is that while it was legal in the sense of not turning of quirky contingencies, it was not legitimate because it failed the fundamental test of expressing the true consent of the governed.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

SERIES 3 EPISODE 48: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN Three times this weekend Trump announced he will invoke "The Alien Enemies Act" which gives him the personal, arbitrary power to send to a concentration camp, or to deport, anybody in this country based on their race. Make no mistake that he means it. Trump's anti-immigrant, specifically anti-Hispanic, hate speech has now climaxed with a promise to invoke the 1798 law that permits the president – in war time – to arrest and detain or deport without a hearing or without evidence of crime – American citizens and others – at his personal whim – based on their race. NOT where they were born, NOT whether they've committed or been suspected of a crime, NOT whether they are here legally or illegally. Based on their race.  The last time this country used it, in one of the most shameful episodes in our history, they rounded up the Japanese. Nearly all that lived in the Continental United States. Nearly none of them accused of crimes. Nearly all of whom had been born here. And you were Japanese, if you were one-sixteenth Japanese. The latest New York Times-Siena poll shows that among Hispanic voters Harris leads Trump by only 54 to 36. Mike Podhorzer, the recently retired political director of the AFL-CIO, explains that this poll number is just what you think it is. “When we do focus groups with the segment of Latinos that are answering survey questions saying that they're comfortable with mass deportation, what comes out quickly is” nobody has told them that things like the Alien Enemies Act gives Trump the PERSONAL right to send to concentrate camps or expel from this country, not criminals, not suspects, not undocumented immigrants, not gang members, not rapists, not murderers, but THEM. Then, says Podhorzer, you explain: Trump will have the right to expel your wife. And your children. And you. And no lawyer or court can stop him. What happens then? “That focus group flips.” Kamala Harris needs to get a direct-to-camera commercial up immediately warning Hispanics in this country that Trump can and will send to concentration camps, without as much as a hearing, their relatives and friends...and them. AS TRUMP SAYS THE MILITARY SHOULD BE DEPLOYED during this election, we learn he really wanted to use it to back a "new election" in the summer of 2021. And the media is still responding by saying that his return to power would be a "boon" to the business side of news. Not even Andrew Ross Sorkin, nominally an economics guy at CNN, seems to understand that Trump will happily declare that "The Alien Enemies Act" can be applied to an industry and shut down all the news organizations, seize their assets, and turn them into state-run media. After all, that's what Hitler did. THE COMIC RELIEF? J.D. Vance says he forgot to wear his earrings to a town hall. Misplaced them? I think I know where you should look for them, Jayvee.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Noel closes out her week in Chicago with a recap of Kamala Harris's speech. Political strategist Mike Podhorzer looks ahead. This episode was produced by Haleema Shah and Miles Bryan, edited by Amina Al-Sadi, fact-checked by Laura Bullard and Matt Collette, engineered by Rob Byers and Andrea Kristinsdottir, and hosted by Sean Rameswaram. Photo by ROBYN BECK/AFP via Getty Images. Transcript at vox.com/today-explained-podcast Support Today, Explained by becoming a Vox Member today: http://www.vox.com/members Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Mike Podhorzer, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress Action Fund, joins the show to discuss the 2024 presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris, and Project 2025. Daniella and Colin also talk about President Joe Biden's proposed U.S. Supreme Court reforms and how Project 2025 would harm Social Security.

We spend a lot of time talking about the odds - and not enough time talking about the stakes for 2024. Mike Podhorzer joins Joe and Alex to discuss the long-term implications of the 2024 presidential race -- and how pervasive the Federalist Society's influence on our judiciary has been. What might the Supreme Court look like after another term of Trump in 2028? Bottom line: It's all on the line in 2024. Mike and Joe explain why we have to look at what's already happening in red states or in places where MAGA already controls the judiciary. So what do we do about it? How do we make our democracy better for more people? Read Mike's latest on the Federalist Society and the stakes of the Court: https://www.weekendreading.net/p/breaking-the-law-trump-is-the-means Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hal Malchow was the incredibly innovative Democratic direct mail and fundraising consultant, who passed away several weeks ago. His final chapter was chronicled by Sasha Issenberg in Politico recently. Hal's was truly a creative mind, including breaking new ground on sophisticated political microtargeting and "social pressure" tactics to generate increased voter turnout. Joining this conversation are two of Hal's longtime business partners and friends - fellow direct mail consultants, Trish Hoppey and Rich Schlackman. We discuss Hal's political roots in progressive politics out of the Deep South, his innovative and curious political mind, the new approaches he developed, and the legacy he leaves behind after decades in the trenches of political targeting and communications. IN THIS EPISODEMemories of meeting Hal for the first time...Hal's path to DC from the Deep South...The GOP luminary who was one of Hal's most trusted friends...The innovations in political targeting and messaging spearheaded by Hal...A few of the races and campaigns most impacted by Hal's creativity...The origin of Hal's groundbreaking work on "social pressure" with two Ivy League academics...Why Hal left day-to-day consulting after the 2010 cycle and how he stayed involved over the past decade...Hal's most recent advice to Democratic campaigns...Hal's motivations during the final chapter of his life...Final thoughts on Hal's legacy in politics...AND The Analyst Institute, bananas ideas, Evan Bayh, better mousetraps, Andrew Bleeker, CHAID analysis, Campaign Performance Group, Christina Coloroso, couch surfing, Mario Cuomo, Morris Dees, failed attorneys, fake-out mail, Vic Fazio, feedback loops, funny accents, Page Gardner, Alan Gerber, Al Gore, Christine Hopkinson, Herb Kelleher, Harry Kennedy, Ted Kennedy, Dean Levitan, Alex Malchow, microtargeting, Janet Napolitano, Gavin Newsom, paella, personalized yard signs, Mike Podhorzer, rat infestations, Rick Ridder, Mitt Romney, Ron Rosenblith, Santa Fe, Tom Sugar, Richard Viguerie, Voter Contact Services, Mark Warner, Michael Woolridge & more!

A New York Times and Siena College poll released Nov. 5 showed Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in five of the six key swing states, with a notable jump in support among nonwhite and young voters. In response, Democrats freaked out.But then two days later, voters across the country actually went to the polls, and Democrats and Democratic-associated policy did pretty well. In Kentucky, Andy Beshear held the governorship. Democrats took back the House of Delegates in Virginia. And Ohio voted for an amendment protecting abortion rights.I asked Mike Podhorzer, a longtime poll skeptic, to help to help me understand the apparent gap between the polls and the ballot box. Podhorzer was the longtime political director of the A.F.L.-C.I.O. And as the founder of the Analyst Institute, he was the godfather of the data-driven turn in Democratic campaign strategy. He also writes a newsletter on these topics called “Weekend Reading.”We discuss the underlying assumptions behind polling methodologies and what that says about their results; how to square Biden's unpopularity with the Democrats' recent wins; why he thinks an anti-MAGA majority is Biden's best bet to the White House and how that coalition doesn't always map cleanly onto demographic data; what a newly energized labor movement might means for Biden; and much more.Mentioned:“We Gave Four Good Pollsters the Same Raw Data. They Had Four Different Results.” by Nate CohnBook Recommendations:“Politics and the English Language” by George OrwellTyranny, Inc. by Sohrab AhmariCrashed by Adam ToozeThoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast, and you can find Ezra on Twitter @ezraklein. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Rollin Hu. Fact checking by Michelle Harris and Kate Sinclair. Mixing by Jeff Geld and Efim Shapiro. Our senior editor is Claire Gordon. The show's production team also includes Emefa Agawu and Kristin Lin. Original music by Isaac Jones. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. And special thanks to Carole Sabouraud.

Patrick Ruffini, pollster at Echelon Strategies, returns to talk about his new book (released today, 11/7/23) PARTY OF THE PEOPLE - on the transition of the Republican Party from being dominated by wealthy, suburban white voters to a more blue-collar and increasingly-multi-racial coalition. In this conversation, Patrick lays out the data behind these shifts, what is driving the GOP's new-found success with blue-collar voters, why this movement came as a surprise to many, the balance of economic vs. cultural priorities, how Latino/AAPI/Black voters are increasingly persuadable audiences in elections, and expecations as to how these shifts will continue to define American politics for the forseeable future.IN THIS EPISODEPatrick lays out the core thesis of Party of the People...Patrick's favorite data points that illustrate the changing face of the GOP...Patrick's take on the role of "educational attainment" in changing voting patterns...Patrick gives a quick tutorial on when and how Democrats have historically been the party of working-class Americans...How flawed 2012 exit polls have contributed to shifting party coalitions more than a decade later...Patrick's take on how the "In This House..." yard signs unwittingly speak to tensions within the Democratic coalition...Economic vs cultural drivers of voter behavior...Missteps and missed GOP opportunities from the trifecta control of government in 2017 and 2018...Mining recent data among Hispanic voters...What Patrick learned about border communities on a trip to the Rio Grande Valley...Why Lester Chang is important...Why Black voter behavior has been more stable than Latino and Asian voters...Patrick's take on the growing segment of biracial and multi-racial Americans...The impact of free trade and foreign policy on changing partisan coalitions...What Patrick learned in the process of writing his first book...AND 7:3 coalitional splits, anti-globalization sentiments, Joe Biden, blurbs, Brexit, George W. Bush, census buckets, charts and data, Hillary Clinton, Nate Cohn, Thomas Dewey, Tom Edsall, Ryan Enos, existential demographic crisis, fading historical patterns, faint echoes, frontier mentalities, the Great Recession, the green transition, Hamiltonian tendencies, illiberal populism, instinctive hawks, Andrew Jackson, jettisoning first principles, Chryl Laird, majority popular tendencies, mercantile progress, the New Deal, Barack Obama, Mike Podhorzer, Ronald Reagan, the Republican autopsy, rivalrous groups, Mitt Romney, sheepskin effects, David Shor, social taboos, Starr County, Steadfast Democrats, Harry Truman, Donald Trump, the UAW, Ismail White, white phenomenons....& more!

Recently, labor unions have exercised power in ways not seen in decades. Former political director of the AFL-CIO Mike Podhorzer joins the podcast to discuss the surge of activity in the labor movement, how the fight for democracy and labor rights are connected and what you should look out for as we get closer to the 2024 election. For a transcript of this episode, please email transcripts@democracydocket.com. Follow Democracy Docket! ⁠Twitter⁠ ⁠Post⁠ ⁠Facebook⁠ ⁠Instagram⁠ ⁠TikTok⁠ ⁠Subscribe to our free newsletters⁠  Resources: Subscribe to Mike Podhorzer's Substack Marc Elias: We Cannot Out-Organize Voter Suppression

Ford, Stellantis and General Motors all now have tentative deals with the UAW. But the longterm impact may just be beginning as labor's strength grows politically. Mike Podhorzer, former AFL-CIO political director, joins me to talk about just that. Feedback as always - dailydetroit - at - gmail - dot - com or 313-789-3211 Follow us on Apple Podcasts: https://lnk.to/dailydetroitonapple  Or Spotify: https://lnk.to/dailydetroitonspotify  Thanks to our members: http://www.patreon.com/dailydetroit  Or those who do a one-time contribution: http://www.buymeacoffee.com/dailydetroit  

Former Political Director and senior advisor to Richard Trumka with the AFL-CIO, Mike Podhorzer, joined the America's Work Force Union Podcast to discuss his start in the labor movement and political environment. Podhorzer also discussed Trumka's efforts during Obama's 2008 presidential campaign and how workers can fight the misinformation being shared with them daily. Independent Labor Voice, Tom Buffenbarger, joined the America's Work Force Union Podcast to talk about his concerns with Congress, and the significant separation between how states perceive each other. He also shared a warning of what a state shouldn't do with its tax credits and funding.

Heartland POD on Twitter - @TheHeartlandPOD Co-HostsAdam Sommer @Adam_Sommer85  (Twitter) @adam_sommer85 (Post)Rachel Parker @msraitchetp   (Post) Sean Diller @SeanDillerCO   (Twitter and Post)https://heartlandpod.com/JOIN PATREON FOR MORE - AND JOIN OUR SOCIAL NETWORK!“Change The Conversation” Mike: https://aflcio.org/author/michael-podhorzer Mike's Substack (very smart stuff) https://michaelpodhorzer.substack.com/p/the-emerging-anti-maga-majorityAtlantic Article About Mikehttps://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2022/06/red-and-blue-state-divide-is-growing-michael-podhorzer-newsletter/661377/

Heartland POD on Twitter - @TheHeartlandPOD Co-HostsAdam Sommer @Adam_Sommer85  (Twitter) @adam_sommer85 (Post)Rachel Parker @msraitchetp   (Post) Sean Diller @SeanDillerCO   (Twitter and Post)https://heartlandpod.com/JOIN PATREON FOR MORE - AND JOIN OUR SOCIAL NETWORK!“Change The Conversation” Mike: https://aflcio.org/author/michael-podhorzer Mike's Substack (very smart stuff) https://michaelpodhorzer.substack.com/p/the-emerging-anti-maga-majorityAtlantic Article About Mikehttps://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2022/06/red-and-blue-state-divide-is-growing-michael-podhorzer-newsletter/661377/

Chris sits down with Orioles beat writer Nathan Ruiz to discuss the surging Baby Birds, and welcomes on Mike Podhorzer of FanGraphs to survey the fantasy landscape and pressure him into making a trade in their home league! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Our friend Mike Podhorzer joins Joe and Alex (yes, he's back) to uncover the state of the 2024 election and what's coming. Sure, Ron DeSantis had a horrendous campaign launch. But why clowning on him is missing the bigger threat. Mike also makes a really important point: Why is history repeating itself - and why ultra-MAGA tactics look a lot like Jim Crow. Plus - Mike highlights the "hack" ultra-MAGA has into our constitutional system. And we get into why the obsession with Joe Biden's approval ratings is the wrong question. What questions should the media be focused on -- and what numbers actually matter right now? Check out Mike's Substack now and don't miss an update: https://open.substack.com/pub/michaelpodhorzer/p/dont-panic-about-bidens-approval?r=9bfgo&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/that-trippi-show/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Governor Howard Dean discusses the consequences of Republicans focusing too much on their base. Axios's Felix Salmon talks about his new book, The Phoenix Economy: Work, Life, and Money in the New "Not Normal." Former AFL-CIO political director Mike Podhorzer updates us on America's burgeoning union movement.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Michael Podhorzer joins The Great Battlefield podcast to talk about his career in the labor movement, the use of data and analytics and recently stepping down as Political Director at the AFL-CIO.

Mike Podhorzer from Fangraphs and ProjectingX.com is off to a great start in both AL Tout Wars and Mixed LABR. He joins Jeff Erickson to talk about his projections process and how it informs his draft strategy, and about his respective teams. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Beat the Shift podcast: Understand statistics episode

Maren Hesla has done virtually everything there is to do in Democratic politics. She's currently a partner in leading Democratic direct mail firm Mission Control…but before that she managed campaigns, worked for the DNC, DCCC, and EMILYs List, and spent time as a media consultant and pollster. Maren talks her personal journey as a Minnesota transplant growing up in the Deep South and what she's learned navigating the political profession. Great episode with both smart political stories and highly actionable advice for pursuing and succeeding in a career in politics. IN THIS EPISODE…Maren's first political memory at a local protest…Maren's memories growing up in the Atlanta area during the height of the Civil Rights Era…Maren's memories of seeing a fellow Georgian in the White House….Maren's first campaign with a local political icon in the Atlanta area…How a mistake calculating voter IDs played havoc in the Mondale targeting operation…How Maren built the first statewide voter file in Georgia county by county…Maren manages the campaign of Ben Jones (“Cooter” from the Dukes of Hazzard)…The Democratic member who broke Maren's heart…Maren talks what a field plan looked like in the 1990s…Maren's time in the polling industry learning under Diane Feldman…Maren remembers Tammy Baldwin's underdog first race for Congress…Maren's unlikely path to EMILY's List…Maren's best practices to running independent-expenditure campaigns…Maren's early modeling project at EMILYs List…Maren talks the talent pipeline produced by EMILYs List…How Maren joined up with Mission Control and Ed Peavy…Maren explains Direct Mail 101…The most common mistakes in direct mail…Maren talks how smart direct mail aided in the recent elections of Sherrod Brown and Jon Ossoff…AND…the Analyst Institute, Julian Bond, Sherrod Brown, cutting turf, Rahm Emanuel, Emory University, Jennifer Granholm, Amy Green, Clay Henderson, Allison Jaslow, John Lewis, Ann Liston, Lester Maddox, Hal Malchow, Ellen Malcolm, Manuel Maloof, Martha McKenna, Ellen Moran, Jim Moran, Jerry Nadler, Jon Ossoff, the Peanut Brigade, Mike Podhorzer, psychographic profiles, Jim Quackenbush, Connie Schultz, Doug Sosnik, standard-issue white guys, Pat Swindall, George Wallace, Karen White, Andrew Young, and MORE!

Mike Podhorzer of RotoGraphs returns to the show as we analyze which players have the best chance to bounce back this season. Why is Justin Upton (6:39) worth the risk after his career-worst 2019 campaign, how come Manny Machado (17:09) is being taken around pick 60 despite his consistency, and is poor durability all that prevents Garrett Richards (31:39) from being a solid option? Players: Yasiel Puig - 0:00:48 Giancarlo Stanton - 0:04:05 Justin Upton - 0:06:20 Wil Myers - 0:10:01 Andrew Benintendi - 0:11:31 Khris Davis - 0:13:45 Manny Machado - 0:17:10 Adalberto Mondesi - 0:19:53 Joey Gallo - 0:21:51 Corey Kluber - 0:23:26 Chris Archer - 0:25:26 Rick Porcello - 0:27:03 Edwin Diaz - 0:28:27 Yusei Kikuchi - 0:29:44 Garrett Richards - 0:31:40 David Price - 0:33:48 Justin Smoak - 0:35:47 Masahiro Tanaka - 0:37:19 Domingo Santana - 0:38:50

Mike Podhorzer from RotoGraphs joins the show to discuss which players have rankings that heavily differ from their ADP. Can Yordan Alvarez (11:43) maintain his immense power numbers and what should we expect from Yu Darvish (21:02)? Which version of Aristides Aquino (40:48) will we get in 2020 and is Eric Hosmer (52:57) worth owning?

WisPolitics.com's Midwest Polling Summit held Oct. 9 in Madison featured top experts talking about the issues and trends that will affect campaign 2020 and key Midwest battlegrounds, including Wisconsin. The afternoon began with a primer on Midwest views on health care issues from nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation polling expert Ashley Kirzinger Following Kirzinger's address, a panel focused on the political perspective and featured top campaign advisers with strong Midwest ties: Celinda Lake, Paul Maslin, B.J. Martino and Brian Reisinger. A “future of polling” panel followed, and was led by the director of the Marquette University Law School Poll Charles Franklin and include Mike Podhorzer, the former political director of AFL-CIO and now senior adviser to its president, Ashlee Rich Stephenson, vice president and national political director, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Nick Mastronardi, CEO of Polco, as well as Ray Block, associate professor of political science and African American studies at Pennsylvania State University. UW-Madison political scientist and author Katherine Cramer then provided closing remarks on public opinion research. This event was sponsored by the Outrider Foundation and The Capital Times. We thank them for their generous support.

WisPolitics.com's Midwest Polling Summit held Oct. 9 in Madison featured top experts talking about the issues and trends that will affect campaign 2020 and key Midwest battlegrounds, including Wisconsin. The afternoon began with a primer on Midwest views on health care issues from nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation polling expert Ashley Kirzinger Following Kirzinger's address, a panel focused on the political perspective and featured top campaign advisers with strong Midwest ties: Celinda Lake, Paul Maslin, B.J. Martino and Brian Reisinger. A “future of polling” panel followed, and was led by the director of the Marquette University Law School Poll Charles Franklin and include Mike Podhorzer, the former political director of AFL-CIO and now senior adviser to its president, Ashlee Rich Stephenson, vice president and national political director, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Nick Mastronardi, CEO of Polco, as well as Ray Block, associate professor of political science and African American studies at Pennsylvania State University. UW-Madison political scientist and author Katherine Cramer then provided closing remarks on public opinion research. This event was sponsored by the Outrider Foundation and The Capital Times. We thank them for their generous support.

WisPolitics.com's Midwest Polling Summit held Oct. 9 in Madison featured top experts talking about the issues and trends that will affect campaign 2020 and key Midwest battlegrounds, including Wisconsin. The afternoon began with a primer on Midwest views on health care issues from nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation polling expert Ashley Kirzinger Following Kirzinger's address, a panel focused on the political perspective and featured top campaign advisers with strong Midwest ties: Celinda Lake, Paul Maslin, B.J. Martino and Brian Reisinger. A “future of polling” panel followed, and was led by the director of the Marquette University Law School Poll Charles Franklin and include Mike Podhorzer, the former political director of AFL-CIO and now senior adviser to its president, Ashlee Rich Stephenson, vice president and national political director, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Nick Mastronardi, CEO of Polco, as well as Ray Block, associate professor of political science and African American studies at Pennsylvania State University. UW-Madison political scientist and author Katherine Cramer then provided closing remarks on public opinion research. This event was sponsored by the Outrider Foundation and The Capital Times. We thank them for their generous support.

Episode 56- Understanding Statistics EpisodeGuest – Mike PodhorzerStrategy Section -Advanced StatisticsOPS vs wOBALuck StatsBABIPStrand RateERA EstimatorsFIP & SIERAHR/FBWhat are x Stats?xFIPxwOBAStatcastExit VelocityLaunch AngleBarrelsWhat are + Stats?wRC+ERA-Per 9 stats vs %K/9 vs K%BB/9 vs BB%K-BB% vs K/BBWARWPAPlate DisciplineO-Contact, Z-Contact, O-Swing, Z-SwingSwStrwPDI / mPDIRecommended StatsWaiver Wire - AC RG & MP – The team talks about a few potential waiver wire pickups.Pitcher Preview - RG AC & MP – The team highlights the coming week's 2-start pitchers and key 1-start matchups.Injury Update - RG – Reuven gives us the injury update.

The All-Star break gave all fantasy owners a breather, but baseball is back and with the second half underway, Mike Podhorzer of Rotographs joined us to give predictions to look forward to heading into the stretch run starting with a turnaround for Blake Snell (2:30). Mike Soroka is highly unlikely to keep up his numbers (14:52) and Justin Smoak is being hugely undervalued and should be owned immediately (20:23). The waiver wire shouldn't be ignored either with pitchers like Matt Strahm (31:45) and Tyler Mahle (34:54) still readily available. If you're looking for power, there are a pair of youngsters who can be had for free in Bobby Bradley (38:14) and Nate Lowe (39:35). We close out the show with our listener mailbag and dream of what our all-time starting lineup would be for an All-Star game (46:14).

Which starting pitchers should you target early on and who are the best values deeper in drafts? Mike Podhorzer from RotoGraphs joined us today to help us tackle that very question, but we start off by examining Manny Machado's outlook with the Padres (1:03). Is Blake Snell (13:20) a top-five SP this year or is he bound to regress, and does Shane Bieber (31:41) get far more hype than he deserves? Can Josh James (41:09) become a stud as a rookie if he cracks the rotation, and how sustainable is Freddy Peralta's (56:22) strikeout rate?

In the inaugural episode of Power & Money, Mike Podhorzer, political director of the AFL-CIO, and Teddy Downey, executive editor of The Capitol Forum, discuss the upcoming midterm elections and the possibility of a ‘Blue Wave’ in November.

We're back with guest Mike Podhorzer of RotoGraphs to catch up on all the latest news and performances around the league since our last show. Robert Stephenson was called back up (3:03), Eloy Jimenez is supposedly nearing a call-up (5:33), Rougned Odor may have finally figured it out (8:03), and Matt Carpenter is somehow an MVP candidate (11:18). There's a lot to discuss including hitters worth adding that should be available in your league (17:54) and which available pitchers are quality adds versus streaming options (31:41). If you're wondering if it's time to drop one of your struggling bigger names, listen in as we run through a list of players that many owners may have to move on from (43:52).

Al Melchior has all the best fantasy baseball coverage for you. Al looks at the impact of the suspension of David Paulino, as well as the great debut of Clint Fraizer. Mike Podhorzer joins the program looking at some of the rising and falling fantasy values of pitchers. #FNTSY #MLB #FantasyBaseball #DavidPaulino #ClintFraizer Learn more about your ad-choices at https://news.iheart.com/podcast-advertisers

2017-04-21 Friday guest expert: Mike Podhorzer, Rotographs columnist at Fangraphs.com ... plus NL/AL News, Playing Time, Frequent Fliers, weekend Pitcher Matchups, Master Notes

Al Melchior is joined by Greg Jewett, Paul Sporer, Mike Podhorzer, and Brent Hershey to break down this weekend's Tout Wars draft, and go in depth with the live NL draft! #FNTSYsportsnetwork #FNTSY #Fantasybaseball #ToutWars #FNTSYRadio #FantasySports #RedSox #Orioles #BlueJays #Yankees #Rays #Indians #Tigers #WhiteSox #Twins #Royals #Rangers #Angels #Mariners #Athletics #Astros #Nationals #Mets #Phillies #Marlins #Braves #Cardinals #Pirates #Cubs #Reds #Brewers #Dodgers #Rockies #Giants #DBacks #Padres Learn more about your ad-choices at https://news.iheart.com/podcast-advertisers

On this edition of the Nasty Cast we welcome Mike Podhorzer from Fangraphs. We discuss his player projection software, Projecting X 2.0, debate the impact of some player injuries, and take a look at Outfielders outside the Top 50. Find Mike's projections at projectingx.com and find his master class on player projections at fantasybaseballsummit.com. Entry to the 2017 Podcast League is now closed, but you can still send questions to thefantasyamateurs@gmail.com or find us on Twitter @FantasyAmateurs @NathanDokken @ManlyVanLee @MrJesseJordan @JoeSadchy and Mike is @MikePodhorzer. Go to TheFantasyAmateurs.com to get a Nasty Cast T-shirt (which will come with a FREE bag of Dot's Pretzels), find our rankings, and more!?

Mike Podhorzer has developed a new xBABIP formula that incorporates shift data.  We'll discuss the implications of this and specifically how it relates to Mets hitters who get shifted a lot, like Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce.

2016-07-15 Friday guest expert: Author & Rotographs writer Mike Podhorzer, plus news & Commentaries ... Runs 2:11:05

2016-05-06 Guest expert Mike Podhorzer of FanGraphs discusses his projection methods, Expected Strikeouts, some speculative waivers pickups, Studs and Duds and more... also the Minor League Minute

Mike Podhorzer joins a special guest episode of the show - and it's one you don't want to miss. What really happened in the days after Election Day in 2020 - and how did people across the political spectrum come together to save it? Why building a coalition to protect democracy is more important than ever. What can we learn from 2022? And what lessons do we need to take into 2024 as a pro-democracy coalition? Also - Why a massive media miss at the end of 2022 probably cost the Democrats the House. And why they can't keep making the same mistakes. What do we do about it? Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/that-trippi-show/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy