OSIRIS-REx delivers its asteroid samples back to Earth. India is losing hope to contact its lunar mission. James Webb is finally seeing baby galaxies coming together in the early Universe.
FINALLY back with some SCIENCE SH*T! This segment is where we break down some science questions that are either audience submitted or some of our favorite things. J.Daae goes solo this episode and talks about the creation of our entire existence...the BIG BANG! This episode covers the origins of the universe, quick timeline for major events and some sprinkling of the next science episode! ——————————— FOLLOW US on INSTAGRAM @HomoInTraining Find us on Facebook! LIKE & FOLLOW our page! EMAIL us your science queeries!: HomoInTrainingPodcast@gmail.com ——————————— Music Credit: Jazzy Abstract Beat by Coma-Media ——————————— --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/homointraining/message
Une récente découverte vient encore d'améliorer notre connaissance de l'univers. À vrai dire, ce n'est pas vraiment une surprise pour les astronomes. En effet, on soupçonnait, depuis les années 1970, la présence de cette "bulle de galaxies" dont l'existence est désormais confirmée. Cette structure, qui se trouve à environ 820 millions d'années-lumière de notre galaxie, se présente comme une sorte de coquille, dont le cœur, constitué d'un super amas de galaxies, semble entouré d'un grand vide. Et la Voie lactée, 10.000 fois moins large, fait piètre figure face à cette masse d'un milliard d'années-lumière de diamètre. Cette bulle de galaxies sphérique daterait d'environ 13,8 milliards d'années. Il s'agirait donc d'un vestige des premiers temps de l'univers, apparu voilà environ 14 milliards d'années. Elle a été baptisée Ho'oleilana, une expression tirée d'un chant hawaïen, qui signifie "murmures de l'éveil". Une manière poétique d'évoquer les commencements du monde. Des vibrations acoustiques Pour les spécialistes, cette formation, en forme de bulle, aurait pu apparaître, dès les premiers âges de l'univers, sous l'impulsion de sortes de vibrations sonores. Le phénomène aurait cessé environ 380.000 ans après le Big Bang. L'arrêt de ces vibrations aurait en quelque sorte figé ces bulles, dont la taille se serait accrue avec l'expansion de l'univers. Cette découverte permettra d'étoffer nos connaissances sur les débuts de l'univers, mais aussi sur son expansion. En observant la manière dont cette bulle de galaxies continue de gonfler, on devrait en apprendre davantage sur la vitesse à laquelle les galaxies s'éloignent toujours les unes des autres. L'un des auteurs de l'étude révélant l'existence de Ho'oleilana avait déjà découvert, voilà près de 10 ans, un super amas comprenant environ 100.000 galaxies. La nôtre s'y trouve d'ailleurs comprise. Ainsi, les chercheurs remplissent sans cesse l'espace interstellaire de nouvelles galaxies, certaines nous permettant en plus de remonter aux tout premiers temps de l'univers. Mais une telle quête est loin d'être terminée. Grâce à la mise en service de nouveaux instruments, comme le télescope spatial Euclid, lancé en juillet dernier, d'autres bulles de galaxies devraient être découvertes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
WE start this week with a Big Bang and a review of Joe Joyce being knocked out by Zhilei Zhang. Then it's onto the events in Florida, which hosted Sandy Ryan-Jessica McCaskill and Conor Benn's comeback, a preview of Canelo Alvarez-Jermell Charlo before we close with a step back in time to Kelly Pavlik's thrilling victory over Jermain Taylor.Through all of that we attempt to answer the following questions:- Is there a route back for Joyce?- Can Zhang go one step further and topple one of the leaders?- Was Sandy Ryan robbed of victory?- What to make of Conor Benn's return?- Is Canelo ripe for an upset loss?- Is Charlo the man to inflict it?- How did Pavlik survive that second round?Please rate, review and subscribe! Thanks for your ongoing support.
Most people today think the sum of Artificial Intelligence is ChatGPT; this is a discussion of a wide range of use cases where the federal government can apply AI. After listening, you will realize that ChatGPT is just one element of the advances in technology to allow federal leaders to make data-driven decisions leveraging artificial intelligence. The use cases discussed range from compliance at the Department of Education to applying Natural Language Processing to satellite images. In this range, there are five concepts about AI you may never have thought of. >What about clean data? One challenge the CDC has is it may get secondhand or even thirdhand data that they are challenged with cleaning up. That experience is reflected in other agencies as well. > Federal leaders are concerned about privacy and security. Federal leaders are skilled in understanding the use of this data and whether it complies to make sure it is safe. > No federal agency can apply artificial intelligence in a vacuum. It must be an enterprise-wide endeavor. To that end, we see Executive Order 13960 to provide overall guidance on how to handle data for larger organizations. > Analytics matter. Ten years ago, everyone talked about big data; then they realized that actionable information wouldn't just drop out of a large data set. Leaders must have a laser focus on deriving lessons from the massive data sets they encounter. > English isn't the only language on the planet. You can't just translate the language into English, you must seek out annotators who can provide nuance in a foreign language. This is especially true for intelligence agencies who monitor foreign threats. Just because today's Large Language Models are based on English, doesn't make it apply to other countries. Vijay Sharma summed up the discussion brilliantly – he said having Artificial Intelligence is like having the best bike in town and not knowing how to ride it.
In this episode, Michael Woods and I discuss all things Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo along with other happenings in the boxing world like the huge knockout by Zhilei Zhang on Saturday night and more.
Dr. Rajendra Gupta is a cosmologist and professor of physics at the University of Ottawa. He has dedicated his work to making sense of images from the new James Webb telescope that appear to contradict the established Big Bang timeline for the universe. Dr. Gupta's explains the recently observed mature galaxies at just 300 million years post-Bang by revising the age of the universe and invoking forsaken ideas like variable constants and tired light. The task remains to explain the cause of this variation. Tell us your ideas in the comments! (00:00:00) Go! (00:00:19) Raj Gupta in the press (00:01:27) What drives you? (00:08:28) Questioning the age of the universe (00:12:23) Patreon Ask (00:24:03) Keating & Rogan & doubting the Bang (00:34:34) The Hubble Tension (00:39:03) What does it mean to rewrite physics? (00:45:03) No difference between distance & time in astronomy (00:48:59) Can physics avoid material foundations indefinitely? (00:56:51) Stiffness of space (01:02:42) A reason why physical constants might change over time (01:05:07) Ressurecting old unpopular ideas from the past (01:12:41) Laboratory measurement of redshift (01:24:18) Multiplicity of theories of nature (01:30:54) Probabilistic approaches to understanding nature (01:37:35) Reimagining mediators in fundamental physics (01:49:47) Closing thoughts on the future of physics and cosmology Support the scientific revolution by joining our Patreon: https://bit.ly/3lcAasB Tell us what you think in the comments or on our Discord: https://discord.gg/MJzKT8CQub #cosmology #jameswebbspacetelescope #astronomy #astrophysics #philosophyofscience #philosophy Check our short-films channel, @DemystifySci: https://www.youtube.com/c/DemystifyingScience AND our material science investigations of atomics, @MaterialAtomics https://www.youtube.com/@MaterialAtomics Join our mailing list https://bit.ly/3v3kz2S PODCAST INFO: Anastasia completed her PhD studying bioelectricity at Columbia University. When not talking to brilliant people or making movies, she spends her time painting, reading, and guiding backcountry excursions. Shilo also did his PhD at Columbia studying the elastic properties of molecular water. When he's not in the film studio, he's exploring sound in music. They are both freelance professors at various universities. - Blog: http://DemystifySci.com/blog - RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/2be66934/podcast/rss - Donate: https://bit.ly/3wkPqaD - Swag: https://bit.ly/2PXdC2y SOCIAL: - Discord: https://discord.gg/MJzKT8CQub - Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/groups/DemystifySci - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/DemystifySci/ - Twitter: https://twitter.com/DemystifySci MUSIC: -Shilo Delay: https://g.co/kgs/oty671
The Software Process and Measurement Cast 774 is a re-release of SPaMCAST 436. We are on our annual holiday and will be back with new programs on October 22nd. For the next four weeks, we will feature shows from our archives. Today SPaMCAST 436 - Incrementalism, UAT and Agile, and Systems Thinking was released originally on April 3, 2017. I hope you will enjoy today's show! The original introduction - The Software Process and Measurement Cast 436 features our essay titled, , in which we answer the question of whether the state and culture of the organization or team, can have a large impact on whether a Big Bang approach or an incremental approach makes sense to change. Our second column is from Jeremy Berriault. Jeremy discusses user acceptance testing and Agile. There are lots of different ways to accomplish user acceptance testing in an Agile environment. The only wrong way is not to do UAT in Agile. Jeremy can be found at https://www.berriaultandassociates.com/ Jon M Quigley brings his column, The Alpha and Omega of Product Development, to the Cast. This week Jon puts all the pieces together and discusses systems thinking. One of the places you can find Jon is at .
El telescopio espacial James Webb descubre algunas de las primeras galaxias que aparecieron poco tiempo después del Big Bang. Gracias por sus comentarios, interacciones, apoyo económico y suscripción. Escuche y descargue gratuitamente en MP3 2023/09/20 Galaxias Jóvenes. Gracias por su apoyo a El Explicador en: Patreon, https://www.patreon.com/elexplicador_enriqueganem PayPal, email@example.com SoundCloud, https://soundcloud.com/el-explicador Spotify, https://open.spotify.com/show/01PwWfs1wV9JrXWGQ2MrbY iTunes, https://podcasts.apple.com/mx/podcast/el-explicador-sitio-oficial/id1562019070 Amazon Music, https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/f2656899-46c8-4d0b-85ef-390aaf20f366/el-explicador-sitio-oficial YouTube, https://youtube.com/c/ElExplicadorSitioOficial Twitter @enrique_ganem Lo invitamos a suscribirse a estas redes para recibir avisos de nuestras publicaciones y visitar nuestra página http://www.elexplicador.net. En el título de nuestros trabajos aparece la fecha año/mes/día de grabación, lo que facilita su consulta cronológica, ya sabe usted que el conocimiento cambia a lo largo del tiempo. Siempre leemos sus comentarios, no tenemos tiempo para reponder a cada uno personalmente pero todos son leídos y tomados en cuenta. Este es un espacio de divulgación científica en el que nos interesa informar de forma clara y amena, que le invite a Ud. a investigar sobre los temas tratados y a que Ud. forme su propia opinión. Serán borrados todos los comentarios que promuevan la desinformación, charlatanería, odio, bullying, violencia verbal o incluyan enlaces a páginas que no sean de revistas científicas arbitradas, que sean ofensivos hacia cualquier persona o promuevan alguna tendencia política o religiosa ya sea en el comentario o en la fotografía de perfil. Aclaramos que no somos apolíticos, nos reservamos el derecho de no expresar nuestra opinión política, ya que éste es un canal cuya finalidad es la divulgación científica. ¡Gracias por su preferencia!
Angelo is joined by Lex to preview the big meaty matchup between Big Bang Zhilei Zhang and the juggernaut Joe Joyce. Will it be a repeat or will Joyce make the necessary adjustments? Plus, what might be happening at 140 with Rolly Romero sending in his medical report to the WBA and will the UFC take the Mexican holidays from boxing? Be a pal and support the podcast over at patreon.com/sundaypuncher
Chapter 1 What's A Short History of Nearly Everything"A Short History of Nearly Everything" is a nonfiction book written by Bill Bryson. It was published in 2003 and explores various scientific topics, ranging from the origins of the universe to the evolution of life on Earth. The book aims to provide a concise but comprehensive overview of the history of science, highlighting major developments and discoveries in an accessible and entertaining way. Bryson combines scientific information with anecdotes and humor, making complex concepts more relatable to a general audience.Chapter 2 Why is A Short History of Nearly Everything Worth Read"A Short History of Nearly Everything" by Bill Bryson is worth reading for several reasons:1. Accessibility: Bryson has a unique ability to take complex scientific concepts and present them in an engaging and easily understandable way. He distills complex theories and discoveries into accessible narratives that make scientific topics enjoyable for all readers, regardless of their background knowledge.2. Comprehensive Coverage: The book covers a wide array of scientific disciplines, ranging from physics and chemistry to geology and biology. Bryson explores the history of scientific discoveries, highlighting eminent scientists and their contributions, while also discussing the challenges and controversies that have accompanied these discoveries. This comprehensive approach provides the reader with a well-rounded understanding of the subject matter.3. Engaging Narrative: Bryson's writing style is humorous, witty, and conversational, making the book entertaining and captivating to read. He weaves together fascinating anecdotes, captivating stories, and curious facts, creating a narrative that keeps readers hooked from start to finish.4. Contextual Understanding: Through his exploration of scientific history, Bryson helps readers appreciate the context in which scientific breakthroughs occur. By understanding the challenges, limitations, and prevailing beliefs of different eras, readers gain a deeper understanding of the significance and impact of scientific discoveries.5. Inspiration and Wonder: The book sparks a sense of awe and wonder at the complexity and beauty of the universe. Bryson's explanations of the natural world can instill a sense of curiosity and inspire readers to further explore and appreciate the wonders of science.Overall, "A Short History of Nearly Everything" is worth reading because it provides a captivating and accessible introduction to the vast field of scientific knowledge, while also instilling a sense of wonder and curiosity about the world around us.Chapter 3 A Short History of Nearly Everything Summary"A Short History of Nearly Everything" by Bill Bryson is a non-fiction book that explores the history and development of scientific discoveries and knowledge. The book covers a wide range of topics, including cosmology, geology, biology, chemistry, and physics, giving readers a comprehensive understanding of how our understanding of the world has evolved over time.Bryson starts by delving into the origins of the universe, discussing the Big Bang theory and the formation of galaxies and stars. He then moves on to explain the Earth's geological history, including plate tectonics, volcanoes, and the formation of continents.In the biological realm, Bryson delves into evolutionary theories, exploring the origins of life and the development of different species. He explains the principles of natural selection and genetic variation, discussing major evolutionary milestones such as the emergence of humans.The book also tackles the history of scientific thinking and the contributions of notable...
A walk through the history of the universe, starting with the Big Bang and the creation of the elements in stars, moving through the first molecular replicators, the RNA world hypothesis, and the evolution of life by natural selection. Punctuated equilibrium. The extreme destruction caused by the asteroid that extincted the dinosaurs. The development of animal culture, except for octopuses, which are uncultured cephalopods. Human intelligence, modern civilization, and what lies ahead of us: extinction or spreading throughout the stars. And the possibility of civilization powered by black holes before the universe finally succumbs to heat death. Enjoy!
We're entering a new era of astrophysics. The James Webb Space Telescope is helping scientists test existing ideas and models of how the universe was created—on a whole new level. This telescope is sending back images of galaxies forming under a billion years after the Big Bang—way earlier than astronomers had previously expected. Not only that, scientists had anticipated that later—but still very early—galaxies would be small, barely formed blobs; instead, the galaxies in these images have spiral arms. So, today's show is all about GALACTIC CONTROVERSY! Computational astrophysicist Jorge Moreno talks with fellow astronomer and Short Wave's Scientist in Residence Regina G. Barber about how these new findings are stirring up controversy in the scientific community and the lessons we can learn from galaxies. Questions or controversies? Email us at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Why 'Stunning' Steve Austin was absolutely better than 'Stone Cold' Steve Austin... Andrew Pollard presents 10 Secrets Nobody Has Told You About WCW...ENJOY!Follow us on Twitter:@CulturedLeftPeg@WhatCultureWWEFor more awesome content, check out: whatculture.com/wwe Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
In keeping with the metaphor of astronomy's Big Bang theory, Paul named the four stages of the shark fin after critical events in the creation and predicted the end of our known universe. Let's get into the four stages: The Singularity, The Big Bang, The Big Crunch and Entropy. Paul unpacks the rules that prop up these four stages. 00:00:00.769 Introduction and Overview of "Four Phases of Big Bang Disruption" 00:03:14.786 Importance of Truth Tellers and Pinpoint Market Entry 00:11:11.771 From Idea to Product: Rapid Sales Success 00:15:34.394 The Importance of Being First in a Competitive Market 00:17:00.996 The concept of bullet time in movies explained 00:19:11.133 The need to anticipate how incumbents will slow time 00:20:34.611 The Strategic Thinking in Chess and Business 00:30:44.407 Recognizing Industry Shifts: The iPod and Toshiba Hard Drive 00:35:05.831 Phillips' Transition to LED Bulbs and Exiting the Lighting Business 00:38:39.902 Profiting from the Wreckage: Escape Your Own Black Hole 00:41:02.475 The challenges of transitioning and maintaining customer commitments 00:44:31.607 Moving on from the past and finding new opportunities
A new MP3 sermon from Answers in Genesis Ministries is now available on SermonAudio with the following details: Title: The Big Bang: Proven Science? Subtitle: Answers with Ken Ham Speaker: Ken Ham Broadcaster: Answers in Genesis Ministries Event: Radio Broadcast Date: 9/15/2023 Length: 1 min.
Chapter 1 What's Astrophysics for People in a Hurry"Astrophysics for People in a Hurry" is a popular science book written by Neil deGrasse Tyson. It was published in 2017 and aims to give an accessible introduction to the field of astrophysics for readers who may not have a background in science or a lot of time to spend on a comprehensive study. The book covers various topics such as the origins of the universe, the nature of dark matter and dark energy, the Big Bang theory, and the search for extraterrestrial life. It has received positive reviews for its ability to simplify complex concepts and make them understandable and engaging for a general audience.Chapter 2 Why is Astrophysics for People in a Hurry Worth ReadAstrophysics for People in a Hurry by Neil deGrasse Tyson is worth reading for several reasons:1. Accessibility: Tyson breaks down complex astrophysical concepts into easily digestible and understandable explanations. He presents the subject matter in a way that anyone, even those without any science background, can comprehend.2. Concise and Informative: Despite being a relatively short book, Tyson covers a wide range of topics in astrophysics, from the big bang theory to black holes, dark matter, and the search for extraterrestrial life. He provides concise explanations that give readers a good overview of various concepts within the field.3. Engaging Writing Style: Tyson's writing style is engaging and humorous, making it an enjoyable read. He uses relatable examples and anecdotes to help readers connect with the material, enhancing their understanding and maintaining their interest.4. Exploration of Popular Science Topics: The book not only covers fundamental astrophysical concepts but also delves into popular science topics like the possibility of time travel and the nature of the universe. This makes it appealing not only to science enthusiasts but also to those with a general interest in the subject.5. Inspiration: Tyson's passion and enthusiasm for astrophysics shine through in his writing, which can be inspiring to readers. The book serves as a motivation for further exploration of the wonders of the universe and encourages readers to develop a deeper appreciation for the field.In summary, Astrophysics for People in a Hurry is worth reading as it offers an accessible, concise, and engaging introduction to astrophysics. It provides readers with a solid understanding of various astrophysical concepts while inspiring them to explore the subject further.Chapter 3 Astrophysics for People in a Hurry Summary"Astrophysics for People in a Hurry" by Neil deGrasse Tyson is a concise and accessible book that aims to introduce readers to the fascinating world of astrophysics. The book provides a summary of the most important concepts and discoveries in the field in a way that is understandable for non-experts.Throughout the book, Tyson discusses a wide range of topics, including the birth and death of stars, the formation of galaxies, the origin of the universe, dark matter and dark energy, and the search for extraterrestrial life. He also explores the tools and methods that scientists use to study these phenomena, such as telescopes and space missions.Tyson's writing style is engaging and witty, making complex ideas more approachable. He uses analogies and real-life examples to simplify abstract concepts, allowing readers to grasp the fundamental principles of astrophysics without getting overwhelmed by technical jargon.One recurring theme in the book is that the universe is vast and humbling, and humans are just a small part of it. Tyson emphasizes the importance of scientific inquiry and the role of...
Join Fazale “Fuz” Rana and Hugh Ross as they discuss new discoveries taking place at the frontiers of science that have theological and philosophical implications, including the reality of God's existence. Designer Proteins Recently, a research team from the University of Washington achieved a milestone in nanotechnology when they used computational methods to design proteins from the ground up shaped into structures that resemble axles and rotors. In turn, they assembled these components into rudimentary protein machines. This proof-of-principle work sets the stage for scientists and technologists to design other machine parts that can be used to fabricate even more sophisticated protein machines. In this episode, biochemist Fuz Rana discusses this exciting work and explores how it can be marshalled as evidence for a Creator's role in the origin and design of life. Resources: Computational Design of Mechanically Coupled Axle-Rotor Protein Assemblies Additional Resources: The Cell's Design: How Chemistry Reveals the Creator's Artistry Molecular Scale Robotics Build Case for Design Cosmic Time Dilation Time dilation provides direct evidence for the biblically implied big bang creation model. A cornerstone of big bang cosmology is that the universe expands from an infinitesimally small spacetime volume. In such a universe distant galaxies and quasars will be moving away from Earth at high velocities. According to special relativity, clocks moving at high velocities relative to Earth will show time extended by a factor of 1 divided by the square root of (1 – v2/c2), where “v” is the velocity at which the clock is moving and “c” is the velocity of light. Astronomers have observed the cosmic time dilation predicted by the big bang in the light curves of type Ia supernova in galaxies 4–9 billion years away. However, until now, they have not seen it in the very distant universe where the time dilation effect would be 10–60 times greater. Now, a two-decade study of the variability of quasars more distant than 12.8 billion light-years has spectacularly affirmed the expected cosmic time dilation. Thus, it affirms the Bible's accuracy in anticipating future scientific discoveries and helps establish the doctrine of biblical inerrancy. Resources: On Time Dilation in Quasar Light Curves Additional Resources: What Does the Bible Say about the Big Bang? A Matter of Days: Resolving a Creation Controversy, 2nd edition, 166–169
Guest: Ryan Barnett, Sr Engineering Manager at FORT Robotics On LinkedIn | https://linkedin.com/in/ryan-barnett3On YouTube | https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCTrL-nZBCf7dA5RNoVV57ig________________________________Hosts:Ben SchmerlerOn ITSPmagazine
Savan Kharel is a theoretical physicist and professor at the University of Chicago. In this podcast, he delves into the realms of quantum mechanics, gravity, the multiverse, the Big Bang theory, black holes, and the vast expanse of the cosmos. He unravels the enigmas of science and the cosmos, while also discussing the state of education today.
Guest: Ryan Barnett, Sr Engineering Manager at FORT Robotics On LinkedIn | https://linkedin.com/in/ryan-barnett3On YouTube | https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCTrL-nZBCf7dA5RNoVV57ig________________________________Hosts:Ben SchmerlerOn ITSPmagazine
Would aliens think we are smart? Neil deGrasse Tyson and comedian Chuck Nice answer grab bag questions on Chandrayaan-3, entangled particles in black holes, the shape of the galaxy, and more.NOTE: StarTalk+ Patrons can listen to this entire episode commercial-free.Thanks to our Patrons Joe King, Denis Ghislain, Ken Sayles, Nicholas, Ava Taylor, and Jared Coffman for supporting us this week.Photo Credit: ESO/S. Brunier, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
In this episode of the Eastern Lariat, STRIGGA & Dylan mostly focus on the young and more up and coming talent that AJPW, DDT and DRAGONGATE have to offer as they discuss guys like Ryuki Honda, Yuki Ueno or the recent debut of T.N.Revolucion in DG. The show also offers a look at Pro Wrestling NOAH using and wasting potential, recommended matches from All Japan this month and a full review of DDT's Big Bang event from this past Saturday.
BIG BANG THEORY PUZZLING WITH JAMES WEBB REVELATIONS: 4/4: Flashes of Creation: George Gamow, Fred Hoyle, and the Great Big Bang Debate, by Paul Halpern https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B08PV5CLZQ/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_hsch_vapi_tkin_p1_i0 A respected physics professor and author breaks down the great debate over the Big Bang and the continuing quest to understand the fate of the universe. Today, the Big Bang is so entrenched in our understanding of the cosmos that to doubt it would seem crazy. But as Paul Halpern shows in Flashes of Creation, just decades ago its mere mention caused sparks to fly. At the center of the debate were the Russian-American physicist George Gamow and the British astrophysicist Fred Hoyle. Gamow insisted that a fiery explosion explained how the elements of the universe were created. Attacking the idea as half-baked, Hoyle countered that the universe was engaged in a never-ending process of creation. The battle was fierce. In the end, Gamow turned out to be right—mostly—and Hoyle, along with his many achievements, is remembered for giving the theory the silliest possible name: "the Big Bang." Halpern captures the brilliance of both thinkers and reminds us that even those proven wrong have much to teach us about boldness, imagination, and the universe, itself 1882 Royal Observatory.
BIG BANG THOERY PUZZLING WITH JAMES WEBB REVELATIONS: 3/4: Flashes of Creation: George Gamow, Fred Hoyle, and the Great Big Bang Debate, by Paul Halpern https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B08PV5CLZQ/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_hsch_vapi_tkin_p1_i0 A respected physics professor and author breaks down the great debate over the Big Bang and the continuing quest to understand the fate of the universe. Today, the Big Bang is so entrenched in our understanding of the cosmos that to doubt it would seem crazy. But as Paul Halpern shows in Flashes of Creation, just decades ago its mere mention caused sparks to fly. At the center of the debate were the Russian-American physicist George Gamow and the British astrophysicist Fred Hoyle. Gamow insisted that a fiery explosion explained how the elements of the universe were created. Attacking the idea as half-baked, Hoyle countered that the universe was engaged in a never-ending process of creation. The battle was fierce. In the end, Gamow turned out to be right—mostly—and Hoyle, along with his many achievements, is remembered for giving the theory the silliest possible name: "the Big Bang." Halpern captures the brilliance of both thinkers and reminds us that even those proven wrong have much to teach us about boldness, imagination, and the universe, itselF. PHOTO: 1811 GREENWICH ROYAL OBSERVATORY
BIG BANG THEORY PUZZLING WITH JAMES WEBB REVELATIONS: 1/4: Flashes of Creation: George Gamow, Fred Hoyle, and the Great Big Bang Debate, by Paul Halpern https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B08PV5CLZQ/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_hsch_vapi_tkin_p1_i0 A respected physics professor and author breaks down the great debate over the Big Bang and the continuing quest to understand the fate of the universe. Today, the Big Bang is so entrenched in our understanding of the cosmos that to doubt it would seem crazy. But as Paul Halpern shows in Flashes of Creation, just decades ago its mere mention caused sparks to fly. At the center of the debate were the Russian-American physicist George Gamow and the British astrophysicist Fred Hoyle. Gamow insisted that a fiery explosion explained how the elements of the universe were created. Attacking the idea as half-baked, Hoyle countered that the universe was engaged in a never-ending process of creation. The battle was fierce. In the end, Gamow turned out to be right—mostly—and Hoyle, along with his many achievements, is remembered for giving the theory the silliest possible name: "the Big Bang." Halpern captures the brilliance of both thinkers and reminds us that even those proven wrong have much to teach us about boldness, imagination, and the universe, itselF. 1824 GREENWICH
BIG BANG THEORY PUZZLING WITH JAMES WEBB REVELATIONS: 1/4: Flashes of Creation: George Gamow, Fred Hoyle, and the Great Big Bang Debate, by Paul Halpern https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B08PV5CLZQ/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_hsch_vapi_tkin_p1_i0 A respected physics professor and author breaks down the great debate over the Big Bang and the continuing quest to understand the fate of the universe. Today, the Big Bang is so entrenched in our understanding of the cosmos that to doubt it would seem crazy. But as Paul Halpern shows in Flashes of Creation, just decades ago its mere mention caused sparks to fly. At the center of the debate were the Russian-American physicist George Gamow and the British astrophysicist Fred Hoyle. Gamow insisted that a fiery explosion explained how the elements of the universe were created. Attacking the idea as half-baked, Hoyle countered that the universe was engaged in a never-ending process of creation. The battle was fierce. In the end, Gamow turned out to be right—mostly—and Hoyle, along with his many achievements, is remembered for giving the theory the silliest possible name: "the Big Bang." Halpern captures the brilliance of both thinkers and reminds us that even those proven wrong have much to teach us about boldness, imagination, and the universe, itself. 1825 THE CAMBRIDGE OBSERVATORF.Y
We continue our series with Paul Nunes. This is part 2 of Big Bang Disruption, where we dive into the Shark Fin and look at Nintendo, Regulation, Pinball and more. 00:00:00.000 The birth of a new company in the face of disruption 00:02:42.027 The impact of heavy regulation on industries and innovation 00:10:32.944 The value and promise of smart talent placement 00:14:05.668 The life cycle stages and business strategy adaptation 00:16:26.230 The shift from bell curve to shark fin curve in sales 00:19:26.977 Saturation and the importance of inventory management 00:21:47.284 The Challenge of Optimising Sales and Market Demand 00:24:22.756 Balancing Inventory and Strategic Shortages 00:25:35.386 The Challenge of Competitors in a Powerful Marketplace 00:30:08.325 The Impact of Production and Overproduction on Sales 00:34:41.138 The Challenge of Innovation and Versioning Problem 00:45:20.894 The Importance of Apple's Ecosystem and Interoperability
My second argument for God's existence is the Argument from the Impossibility of Nothingness. This is a lesser-known argument for God's existence, but I think it is quite powerful.The essence of the argument: If there was ever a time when nothing existed, there would still be nothing now because nothing has no potential to become something. And yet something exists, so there could never be a time in the past when nothing existed. Something must have always existed. The universe is not that something since physical reality came into existence at the Big Bang, so the eternal something must transcend physical reality. The eternal something must be immaterial, spaceless, and eternal, which is a basic description of God.Web: ThinkingtoBelieve.comEmail: ThinkingToBelieve@gmail.comFacebook: facebook.com/thinkingtobelieveTwitter & Gettr: @thinking2believParler & Truth: @ThinkingToBelieve
#Cosmology: Big Bang misfiring.Bob Zimmerman BehindtheBlack.com https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/essays-and-commentaries/the-new-york-times-suddenly-allows-two-scientists-to-admit-the-big-bang-theory-might-be-wrong/ Photo: 1950 Bronx NY No known restrictions on publication. @Batchelorshow
Chapter 1 What's A Brief History of TimeA Brief History of Time is a popular science book written by British physicist Stephen Hawking. Published in 1988, it presents a simplified explanation of some of the most complex concepts in theoretical physics, including the Big Bang theory, black holes, and the nature of time. The book aimed to make these scientific theories more accessible to non-scientists and became an international bestseller, making Hawking a household name. A Brief History of Time has since been widely acclaimed for its ability to engage readers in deep scientific concepts while remaining approachable and enlightening.Chapter 2 Why is A Brief History of Time Worth ReadA Brief History of Time by Stephen Hawking is worth reading for the following reasons:1. Deepens understanding of the universe: This book provides an exploration of various theories and concepts related to the origin and nature of the universe. Hawking explains complex ideas in a clear and accessible manner, allowing readers to gain a deeper understanding of the universe we live in.2. Breaks down complex concepts: Hawking simplifies complex scientific ideas and theories, making them comprehensible for readers with little to no background in physics or cosmology. He uses relatable examples and analogies to explain complex subjects like black holes, time travel, and the Big Bang.3. Presents cutting-edge scientific knowledge: Hawking presents the current state of scientific knowledge at the time of the book's publication (1988) and discusses groundbreaking theories such as the expanded understanding of black holes and the search for a unified theory of physics. The book provides readers with insights into the forefront of scientific discovery.4. Challenges preconceived notions: The book tackles common misconceptions about the laws of physics and introduces readers to mind-bending concepts like time dilation, the arrow of time, and the possibility of parallel universes. It encourages readers to question their existing beliefs and opens up new perspectives.5. Inspirational life story: Apart from the scientific content, A Brief History of Time also provides glimpses into Hawking's personal life and his struggles with Lou Gehrig's disease. Despite his physical limitations, Hawking's determination and passion for scientific exploration shine through, inspiring readers to overcome obstacles and pursue their interests.6. Popularizes science: Hawking successfully brings complex scientific ideas to a wider audience, making them digestible and stimulating interest in science. The book's widespread popularity has played a significant role in bringing cosmology and theoretical physics into popular culture.7. Stimulates curiosity: A Brief History of Time encourages readers to explore further and delve deeper into the complexities of the universe. It instills a sense of wonder and curiosity about the mysteries of the cosmos, leaving readers with a desire to learn more.In summary, A Brief History of Time is worth reading due to its ability to simplify complex scientific concepts, its exploration of cutting-edge knowledge, its capacity to challenge preconceived notions, its inspirational aspects, and its potential to spark curiosity and interest in the wonders of the universe.Chapter 3 A Brief History of Time Summary"A Brief History of Time" is a bestselling popular science book written by renowned physicist Stephen Hawking. Published in 1988, the book aims to explain complex concepts of physics, such as the origins of the universe and the nature of time, in a way that can be understood by non-specialists.The book starts by introducing the basic principles of cosmology, including the Big...
George Noory and astrophysics professor Joshua Winn discuss the efforts to discover other Earth like planets in the galaxy that are capable of supporting life, how planets form and evolve, and what really happened at the Big Bang.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Everything in our world is powered by energy. We need it to drive our cars, bake cupcakes and even jump up and down on the bed! All of this energy comes from different sources, like gasoline and wind power. Even the food that powers our bodies is a source of energy. But almost all of the energy on Earth first came from the same place: the sun!In this episode, we'll find out how the sun powers so much of our lives. Plus, we'll learn how the amount of energy in the universe has stayed the same since the very beginning of time, which scientists call the Big Bang. Mind-blowing, right? All that, plus a brand new mystery sound and a look at some really cool possible future sources of energy!This episode was sponsored by: Indeed (Indeed.com/BRAINS - To claim your SEVENTY FIVE DOLLAR SPONSORED JOB CREDIT to upgrade your job post. Terms and conditions apply.)Paw Patrol Movie (Pawpatrol.movie - Catch PAW PATROL: THE MIGHTY MOVIE in theaters on September 29th!)Factor Meals (Factormeals.com/brainson50 - To get 50% off.)IXL (IXL.COM/FIELDTRIP - To get the most effective learning program out there at the best price.)Greenlight (Greenlight.com - The banking and investing app for kids and teens.)*****Do you have your Smarty Pass yet?? Get yours today for just $4/month (or $36/year) and get bonus episodes every month, and ad-free versions of every episode of Brains On, Smash Boom Best, Moment of Um, and Forever Ago. Visit www.smartypass.org to get your Smarty Pass today!
http://www.astronomycast.com/archive/ From May 21, 2009. - What would happen if the Moon was rotating fast enough that it was not tidally locked to the Earth? - When light and matter go into a black hole, where do they go? - Why does the space station's orbit seem to oscillate between 60 degrees north latitude and 60 degrees south? - What do telescopes pick up when they look at different objects — is it light waves or individual photons? - Is Dark Matter “out there” or it is all around us? - Did time pass so slowly during the Big Bang that it occurred infinitely long ago? - If the sun classified as yellow, why is the color of daylight white? - Since the beginning of the show, has any of the science discussed changed? - Could Hubble or Cassini be boosted out in to space to save the spacecraft from destruction? We've added a new way to donate to 365 Days of Astronomy to support editing, hosting, and production costs. Just visit: https://www.patreon.com/365DaysOfAstronomy and donate as much as you can! Share the podcast with your friends and send the Patreon link to them too! Every bit helps! Thank you! ------------------------------------ Do go visit http://www.redbubble.com/people/CosmoQuestX/shop for cool Astronomy Cast and CosmoQuest t-shirts, coffee mugs and other awesomeness! http://cosmoquest.org/Donate This show is made possible through your donations. Thank you! (Haven't donated? It's not too late! Just click!) ------------------------------------ The 365 Days of Astronomy Podcast is produced by the Planetary Science Institute. http://www.psi.edu Visit us on the web at 365DaysOfAstronomy.org or email us at info@365DaysOfAstronomy.org.
We have entered a fourth stage of innovation— the era of Big Bang Disruption. The new disrupters attack existing markets not just from the top, bottom, and sides but from all three at once. By tying their products to the exponential growth and falling costs of new technologies, their offerings can be simultaneously better, cheaper, and more customized. Not just for one group of users, but for all (or nearly all) customers. This isn't disruptive innovation. It's devastating innovation. 00:00:00.000 The Evolution of Innovation: Addressing Disruption 00:02:36.657 Three Styles of Innovation: Traditional, Cost, and Blue Ocean 00:06:23.894 Simplifying Business Strategies: Differentiation, Cost, and Customer Focus 00:07:20.966 The Challenge of Competing with Better Products 00:17:12.447 Leveraging cameras for innovative bottle tracking technology 00:19:56.153 The cost advantage of digital products and services 00:23:54.145 The phenomenon of better and cheaper innovation in various industries 00:26:44.172 The Impact of Information Spread and Market Realities 00:34:52.300 The Importance of Meeting Customer Breakthrough Points 00:36:20.074 Introduction to the concept of disciplined innovation 00:38:56.498 The power of recombining components in innovation 00:39:26.799 The Rise of Drones: A Phenomenon Explained 00:42:13.962 Rapid Fire Experiments and the Democratization of Customer Insight 00:47:26.683 Information and Access: The Challenges of Finding Information 00:49:04.340 The Power of Low Cost Components 00:49:31.700 Putting Screens on Refrigerators - Why Not? 00:52:04.248 Exponential Technologies Drive Down the Cost of R&D 00:54:40.337 The Challenge of Finding the Threshold for Product Success 00:57:51.377 Broadening Horizons and Taking Time to Think for Workplace Change
Yeah, we are talking about "that." We are tackling the questions we are all thinking about God, the Bible, and christian living, but don't know how to ask. But God welcomes us with our questions and meets us with His grace and truth. Join us for our new series, "The Elephant Room," as we unpack the "big" questions confronting the Christian faith.
James Tytko took this cosmic conundrum on with the help of Toby Wiseman, theoretical physicist from Imperial College London... Like this podcast? Please help us by supporting the Naked Scientists
EP309 - Instacart IPO Filing Warning: Given the complexity and breadth of topics, this is a longer than usual episode with a runtime of 90 minutes (if we had more time, we'd produce a shorter podcast). Update: In this episode Jason mentioned that he didn't think Instacart accepted SNAP payments. It turns out that Instacart did start accepting SNAP earlier this month. On Friday, August 25th 2023 Instacart filled its S-1 IPO form with the SEC, in advance of its intention to make an initial public offering. The complete filing is almost 400 pages. In this episode we summarize all the key points, including a number of surprises, in the filing. If you want to follow along with the actual S-1, you can download it here. Scot suggests you focus on pages 101-124. Topics Covered: Cover Page and Entry Level Items Overall Growth Trends 25:50 Unit economics 42:90 Cohort Analysis 48:10 Instacart Ads 56:30 The Big Risk/Concern 1:00:11 Other observations (Instacart+, Carrot Services, Generative AI) 1:22:50 Other episodes mentioned: Episode 255 - Instacart Chief Revenue Officer Seth Dallaire and Episode 224 Customer Cohort Analysis and CLV with Dr. Daniel McCarthy. Don't forget to like our facebook page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes. Episode 309 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Tuesday, August 29, 2023. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Jason: [0:23] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 309 being recorded on Tuesday August 29th I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scot Wingo. Scot: [0:38] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason and Scot show listeners. We are going to jump into the talk tonight because one of our most popular shows as you know Jason the format is a deep dive and we have got a great Deep dive for you guys this episode. Last Friday August 25th there was a very big event not only in our favorite world's grocery which is Jason's favorite world and my favorite world of e-commerce and then Jason's favorite world of. But also in my favorite world of startups so this is this is a pretty big event and we wanted to dedicate a complete episode to it. I mean it is the filing of the S14 instacart. [1:24] And just to set it up the you know in my world of start-up land it has been very hard to get an IPO done so there's been a couple post coated and like late 2020. And then summon 21 and then there's been a dry spell there's been something called a dese back so you have this spec which is this. [1:44] Special-purpose acquisition thing and you can kind of go public through this kind of complicated convoluted thing. Tends not to go very well so there's been some of that like in My World Mobility there is one called get around and there's been a couple others and those typically have not. Gone so well they're down like 95% bird the scooter company did this as well. So it's been a very dry IPO market for startups and thus of interior backed investors. So there has been a lot of anticipation around when is that a PO when they're going to open who's going to be brave enough to kind of stick their foot out there first. And you know a lot of people have been rooming that instacart would be out there there's a couple other companies in this kind of unicorn Stratosphere stripe is another one that we cover a lot on the show from the payments world. There's also the others you can think of Jason there's this one. There's a software one that is just doing really well in AI that's been mentioned a lot not not open AI it'll come to me in a minute. So you know so this is kind of the real. Bang the Big Bang of here's a company that is being brave enough they're gonna go first and we're going to see what happens so it's going to be really interesting and we thought because it hits this Venn diagram of all of our favorite things that we would spend a fair amount of time on. [3:10] So first of all this is a 400 page document so our value add to the listeners is we have distilled it down into what we think are the most interesting little tidbits and some of the things we've learned from instacart it is nice because there's been a lot of rumors about how instacart Economics work and Jason has been tracking their ad piece which is you know cpgs have really seen some really nice results from that so we know that's been active and the areas we picked apart we thought we would cover tonight is I wanted to kind of give you a quick and dirty Scott's guide to reading an s-1 and we'll start at the cover page that's there's actually a lot that happens on the cover page so I want to spend a little time there and kind of give you a little I haven't taken a company poet behind the scenes of what's going on on there and then we're going to talk about some of the overall growth things that just kind of help you understand. [4:07] How to think about instacart how they're growing and what they do and what role they play and then unit economics one of the things that is happening more and more in these s1's is they're doing a more comprehensive cohort analysis and this is basically showing hey if if I car to a customer in a certain period how are they doing now and what are those Trends so that this this had a lot going on there of course we want to talk about the ad business and then little bit of a catch-all for other observations, Jason anything I missed before we jump into the cover page. Jason: [4:42] No I think you mostly covered it just one slight correction it's four of our five favorite things for those listeners that tuned in to hear us talk about Ahsoka we're going to do that on an upcoming episode so that Star Wars would be our fifth. Scot: [4:56] Yes sadly there was no Star Wars in this one so it's that one little part of the over the Venn diagram was left is its own little circle out in space. Jason: [5:06] That's a we call that a teaser for a future episode. Scot: [5:09] Yeah yeah we're we're Pros were 300-plus episodes into this thing and this is the kind of you know Pro level that we deliver on the pod. So you guys missed it Jason forgot to plug in his microphone earlier so that's a yeah we're still still learning every day, so when you open an s-1 the first thing you see is the cover page and it you know a lot of people just Breeze by it because it's a cover page but it has a lot of really valuable information so first of all the first thing that I noticed is I was searching for this on Edgar and I kept typing in instacart and it wouldn't show up and I was like WTH I know this s1's out there why can I not find it and then I saw an article and it said oh the company's real name is maple bear so that's the first thing you see on the cover is the company we all refer to as instacart its actual Corporation name is maple bear and it does business as instacart so I thought I did not know that prior so that was the first thing I learned right there on the cover so that's interesting so if you do go to the will put a link to the s-1 in the show notes but if you do Brave the Edgar SEC database yourself throwing a little Maple bear there and not instacart. Jason: [6:22] Not to be confused with Amazon's house brand Mama Bear. Scot: [6:26] Yeah yeah and I'm sure there's a honey bear and brown bears there's a there's a lot of a lot of bear things going on. The other thing that I was like to see is what symbol are they using I think it's fun to kind of you know as an entrepreneur to kind of think about what symbol you're going to use that best personifies your brand Channel Bowser we had ecom's so that was an exciting one so we captured e-commerce Shopify go. Jason: [6:52] The best ticker symbol of all times by the way. Scot: [6:55] Thank you thanks thanks I appreciate it. Shopify head shop and that was a good one and instacart / Maple bear is going with cart so I think that's a that's a that's a pretty nice one you know it kind of there a multi grocer chart cart and we all think about instacart I'm sure they hate being called Instagram so this kind of like really punches on the cart so maybe they get away from everyone mistakenly calm Instagram. Jason: [7:19] I think it's solid. Scot: [7:20] Yeah A-Plus on the symbol and then in the you'll notice that a lot of the evaluations and how many shares they're selling are blank and that's you know in this draft of this one which is the first kind of public one that they're dropping out there they'll they'll iterate a couple more times they'll do their Roadshow and then write one that, it prices they'll update the S12 include all that information so they'll make kind of literally a game day decision the night before IPO of how much based on the order book how much they want to sell and at what price so that, that's going to be blank through probably several more iterations as we go on then this is did you want to do something in. Jason: [8:04] No I was just I was just thinking that they I assume they left it blank because the underwriters were out of practice. Scot: [8:10] Yeah no no they they are there waiting and that's a good point because when you go public the the companies that take you public in this context they're all investment banks on Wall Street. But they they filled this role of Underwriters and basically what they're doing is they're acting as market makers they're going to cover your stock when it's public and they're also going to be basically pounding the pavement to sell your stock to buy side by side analysts and firms on Wall Street. Which there's two buckets of there's mutual funds and hedge funds there's also retail that I guess there's three buckets, retail would be you log into Schwab or Robin Hood and the diet of the IPO you try to buy some chairs that's retail and they all allocate a little bit of that for the IPO so they like retail to come in and get a little taste. [9:04] A lot of folks that if you're an accredited investor at an institution and you have a wealth manager, sometimes you can get a little bit of access to an IPO before it prices you don't get a special price or anything but you can if you're really excited and you're a retail customer you and you're in this kind of wealthy bucket then you can you can get some allocated shares I think is what they call it these call this friends and family they don't call that, that anymore that's called a allocated shares but what's important about the underwriters is there's actually a signal there several signals here and I didn't know this time went through the process. First of all they have lined up a who's who of investors so even before you get to Underwriters they have this really interesting note right before right underneath before they get in the underwriters and they say oh by the way we have lined up these investors already that have committed to buying and they have committed Asterix and then they kind of like take away the committed but. [10:05] I think that's a legality I think I think it's a pretty hard commitment is my reading of them and they basically say these guys are already these guys have lined up to buy at least 400 million in this offering. Regardless of the price and there's some big names in there there what I would call. Public-private so they have invested in instacart already as a private entity and then they have another side of there. Firm that invest in public entities and they have said that side is going to support the private side and that's nor just Bank tcv. [10:38] Sequoia and a couple others this is very unusual but I think it's an interesting play because it basically says to the market. Hey you don't have to worry about this thing you know taking on the first day because we're going to were signaling to you we're going to place a chunk of this with these folks that are long-term holders and they're going to backstop this thing I think of it as a adding a floor to the IPO basically saying we know it's been a while we know there's risk out there we're going to have a floor on this so so there's built-in demand for this IPO so that's quite unusual and this is the first time I've ever seen anything like that sometimes you'll see tiro price is a big one a big mutual fund that likes to do this or they'll have a private-public and they'll say you know they'll kind of suggests that, they're interested in buying more and they'll come out and say they don't plan to sell or they've accepted a lock up for a year or something like that I've never seen such a strong message as this one so I thought that was interesting. Okay then we move to the bottom of the cover and that's where you have the list of the underwriters and what's really interesting is the way this works is the bigger your font the bigger a role you play in the IPO so on this one the biggest font is Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan and you know they have I don't know what would you say Jason like a 40 Point font. Your. Jason: [12:03] Yeah I had to read it with my my PDF zoomed way up so I feel like I yeah but it was a big font. Scot: [12:11] Yeah yeah so those guys get like a you know they're kind of really big and then what's also interesting is where you show up on the page is important so your importance starts at the left and goes down to the right so the most important what we would call the vernacular is the lead left which is the biggest font on the left side of the cover is the lead Investment Bank and as Goldman Sachs and they're they're The Bluest of Blue Chips everyone wants Goldman Sachs if they come out. [12:37] And then usually you want either JP Morgan or Morgan Stanley now JPMorgan has increased greatly and stature over the last three years because they have weathered coded and they have basically absorbed most of Silicon Valley Bank's deposits and a lot of these other riskier Banks and their CEO is pretty famous Jamie dimon so they've this is kind of you know two blue tips on the top of the book here which is pretty interesting and then, then you kind of go down a bit and you end up with 18 more Underwriters and there's like three levels of them there's like the font gets smaller so you go from 40 point to 20 point then you go to like kind of like 15 point and you go to seven point and you know what's interesting is I have never seen this many Underwriters either so they basically have said we want everyone on Wall Street lined to go and help us sell this we will turn no Rock no Rock will be unturned looking for buyers of instacart stock with the institutional investors. There's some International Players so they've basically if you kind of said if you if you. [13:53] Few War Room doubt what are some things a company could do 2D risk an IPO they have done things I've never seen before times like three and then the last thing that's interesting is the economics each of these Banks gets kind of depends on where they are on the page so you know if it all this gets him to like, there's all this Machinery but these guys do it because they make money so Goldman will make their kind of highest percentage and then JPMorgan and so on and so on based on how much they contribute to the book and all this kind of calculus that goes on behind the scenes so I thought that was kind of a really interesting just on the cover some things that were very unusual from other IPOs I've seen Jason anything that you found on the cover that was riveting. Jason: [14:43] We'll know I did. I have a question for you though I got I guess I when I saw all of those Underwriters I kind of and perhaps erroneously assumed that part of what was going on here is, it's been a while since there were in any IPOs that went through an underwriter and that all of the underwriters are out there. Desperate for four deals and that therefore. Instacart had more more leverage to get more Underwriters like is it. Is it literally instacart just agreed to pay more for these two more Underwriters 2D risk the IPO is that. Scot: [15:23] Yeah I think. So human nature is that the lead laughed and Lead right want to absorb a lot of the deal and don't want to share too much so so typically there's some friction there right so they'll be like yeah you could add a couple and they use this tearing language I don't you know this is just kind of how I don't know who how they know what who's what dear, but tier one is Goldman Morgan and JP Morgan Morgan Stanley and then tier 2 is you get kind of Stiefel, a couple others in there then you go tier 3 and then you kind of have like an international kind of tearing as well so usually you get like two from Tier 1 Maybe two or three from tier 2 and then that's kind of it and then if you've if the company feels strongly like another consideration is when you go public one of the things that helps you long term is to have analysts that follow your stock and we've had many of these analysts on our show Mark mahaney Collin Sebastian these are and then Scott Devitt he was at stifel and he's moved on to another shop these are these are famous people in the internet marketing world so you want take Mark sets, I wasn't even as Fern was he ever green but that's not it. [16:40] Ever Quorum so so you as the company can say the Goldman hey I know you guys want to keep a lot of Economics but I want mahaney on this and we got to get ever Cora so some of those on the bottom are probably International distribution retail or something the company wanted kind of specific to add them on and you know that was all pre-negotiated with Goldman getting lead left they had they kind of had to acquiesce to having a bit of a large number of Underwriters on there so I don't yeah I don't think I'm sure they all wanted to be to your point like there certainly wasn't even saying no to being invited to this and they probably you know you just bake off in this was I came to imagine if they ended up with 18 like, mr. started with 80 I don't know it's crazy that was probably like a. Six week bake off just to hear from all the bankers so yes I think there's more around the analyst going on with with the large number on some of those. Jason: [17:39] Got it and then I want to hear your speculation about where the price might come in but I'm trying to remember the details there's been a lot of interesting things going on with the private placements before we got to this point right so I think the some of the valuations of the private placements were at some point disclosed and then I want to say instacart reset there. Their valuation at a lower number while they were still private like presumably to make the equity appealing for employees. Scot: [18:17] Yeah the sequence of events and this is all you know they don't disclose all this in this one because it's kind of like. Jason: [18:25] Sure I'm just trying to get the the Run. Scot: [18:27] The Whispers And if you read some of these you know I subscribe to a lot of things that talk about some of this kind of rumors and so take it with a grain of salt but there was some sequins like they were chugging along and then Covent hit and it was like Off to the Races vertical and I think the wheels kind of came off the bus and they started to lose money because the unit economics weren't weren't ready for for like a surge like that and then right around 21 they replace the CEO and they had to kind of emergency raise some Capital which is kind of like one of the worst times to do it because even though their revenue was surging the rest of the market was in the toilet basically so I think they had to do a Down Round And what I've heard is their bed raised money as high as 39 billion and then they took this haircut at with this new CEO in this kind of re leaning down the company at about 13 billion so. [19:19] So I think that's kind of like the watermark is kind of where they've last raised money and if you look at their revenue that's actually not that's a very reasonable Place given where you know they've grown since then but now what's the revenue like four billion ish yeah so they're like 3 billion and 22 in revs so that's like a four times Revenue which is pretty reasonable for a company growing the way they are with with good profitability so I would be I would not be surprised we don't we won't know this per share price until we see the denominator and they didn't have the denominator which is market cap divided by number of shares equals share price we don't know the number of shares so I would I would suspect. I'll guess, four billion I'm gonna guess 20 billion would be a low like I think it will price they're on the low end and it could go as high as 25 30 depends on you know. Retail and how much momentum it gets with with buyers. Jason: [20:26] And part of the art here is you don't you don't want to price it too low because that means you you have money on the table when you sold your Equity but you also don't want to price too high and have the, the stock like go down from the offering price and get below water right away right so. Scot: [20:49] Yeah it's very common we kind of had this situation at Channel visor we went public right after you know cortical right after in a longer time window of 08 09 and you know they strongly we had golden lead left and they strongly encouraged us to think long-term and not get obsessed about that pricing and leave a little bit of money on the table and yeah and then over time you could do a secondary at a higher price and you really want to you don't want to tank especially in a tepid market so I'm sure this was all part of the um you know Goldman would counter negotiate this to be lead left and say look we we need your commitment that your yep part of the pitch is they give you what they think it's worth and how it's going to price and they also discuss the strategy and that's part of the selection processes and you would think it would be. Okay whoever says they're gonna give me the highest price but you actually kind of they really stand out a lot because the Goldman people can talk about Dave, they've got like a lot of data to back up their strategy and you know there's like Watson there that that are. It would make your head spin and so they do a really good job of talking about why it makes sense to price the way they think and how how they see it over a longer Arc of time. Jason: [22:12] Gotcha so the guys with all the money have really good justification for why you shouldn't worry so much about the money. Scot: [22:18] And then the other thing to know though is what typically happens is you are not sharing you're not selling any one shares so the company so as part of this IPO the company will issue new shares so so you as the founder and the other investors you still have your shares you're not actually selling them at this moment so you know in a way now you get diluted right so the flip of that is your percent ownership goes down but you know it's kind of the would you take a little bit smaller. Of that and long term when you can sell your shares as the investor and the founder and the team and the people that bet on you now you know can you execute and deliver and then earn your way into a higher price and then that's when you can kind of like get some equipment sir. Jason: [23:08] Do you want a little bit of a grapefruit or all of a grape. Scot: [23:11] Yes exactly yep that is a good description. [23:17] Okay so here's here's the other part of the quick and dirty guide to reading the S1 you can take so that's cover is really good and then you take the literally the next let's see what is it. 100 pages and you can toss them so this is where the lawyers come in and they love to make sure you understand all the risk factors you know a meteor could hit the Earth people could stop needing groceries cybersecurity I could be no one wants to shop for them it could be they'll compete with a bunch of people Amazon is always a risk factor Google Microsoft. So all that really doesn't add value and then there's a little bit of financial stuff but it's it's pretty dry and it's kind of like from the Auditors almost so it's like super drive so it always do is you skip to the part of this one we're finally the lawyers have earned their large fees and they vomited forth 100 pages of risk you know stuff. And then you get to write your story and that's called the Management's discussion and Analysis in the industry it's called the md&a. [24:27] It's confusing I thought for a long time it was md&a because Aaron says mdna really fast and they're saying the word A and D and it sounds like an end to me and I kept saying what the heck does md&a stand for they're like what do you mean what's up what are you saying. It's like a who's I first got a thing but it's md&a so Management's discussion and Analysis and this is where you. Jason: [24:49] Because I read all 100 pages and and I'm super depressed and one of the risk factors is the way I could become sentient and take over the Earth. Scot: [25:00] Mmm yep that is a risk factor and then it will bring our groceries to us I guess as we are batteries for its consumption. Jason: [25:08] The computers won't eat. Scot: [25:10] So if you really want you know so what you can do is you can get the gist of 95% of this by printing out the s-1 pages 1012 124 that's it's only 23 pages and it's really dense but it is actually this is actually a very good read they did a very good job of making this so you know. It's very approachable and they go into a level of detail that's really handy into problem so we're going to give you some of the highlights from that but if you want to go deep on your own we will give you all you need to go to the next level just by looking at those 23 pages. Okay so what did you see and them DNA and that got your attention. Jason: [25:55] Well I mean a number of things so maybe just super high level what's exciting to me like obviously a lot of this information about the business was not, publicly available so in the process of going public in issuing S1 they suddenly reveal a lot of things and they reveal things about. Their own business but they also have to paint a pretty good picture of what they think is happening and could happen in the digital grocery business so it's kind of like getting a whole class of really smart people to sort of, write a thesis about the the digital grocery business that we get to read and interpret and you know we they reveal things that we didn't know like how valuable customers are over time and how much consumers spend on a given order at instacart and what percent share of wallet they think digital gets versus brick and mortar and all these sorts of things and we'll get into a bunch of them in the in the individual sessions but my my takeaway from the beginning of that management discussion was that it's a. [27:08] A pretty robust business that the aggregate amount of. GTV that they that they have is pretty significant its twenty eight point eight billion dollars in groceries that they sold in 2022. Scot: [27:27] Yeah and GTV is gross transaction volume so instacart it's basically a Marketplace like eBay or Amazon where parts of parts of Amazon all of you back where you have in the marketplace of product Marketplace use GMB a lot of payment systems like PayPal use tpv gross merchandising value total payment volume they have chosen to use this term for the gross figure of GTV and at first I thought it was going to be groceries to do but it's gross transaction value I thought for sure it was like grocery, I was trying to decode it without looking it up and I was like that can't be grocery because then I don't know what a TV is doing there and you know so then their revenue is a derivative of that meaning of some percentage then of that big number Falls to them as Revenue after they pay the grocer The Shopper and then instacart the business has the leftovers and which ends up, we'll go through the unique and I'll mix it ends up being being pretty small because the grocery business does not have huge merchants. Jason: [28:26] Yeah so kind of looking at those business fundamentals that you know in 2022 they sold 28.8, billion dollars worth of stuff which for them generated 2.5 billion dollars in revenue and they were profitable on that Revenue they they net 428. Million dollars which like back in the a couple years ago when there were more IPOs happening there were there were IPOs in the space they were happening with companies that still weren't profitable so so that was interesting that they they were meaningfully profitable and then the, you know you're super interested in what the growth trajectory is and. [29:13] 20:19 was a very small year so going from 2019 to 2020 you know and then the pandemic app in the middle 2020 and urban was ordering groceries from, from instacart so the growth in 2020 was astronomical like 300% or something like that. But then the growth in 2021 over 2020 was 24%. On revenue and the growth in 2022 over 2021 was 39% in Revenue so. The revenue growth is Meaningful and accelerating. Which would be exciting they were not profitable in 2020 or 2021 so 2022 is the First full year that they were profitable. The GTD is a little different though they had significant growth three hundred percent in 2020 20 percent in 20 21 and 16 percent in 2022 so, well they have a track record of growth it's the top on GTV growth is decelerating. And then of course we're halfway through 2023 so they have to disclose. [30:23] How the well they've done in the first six months of this year and they compared to that to last year and the revenue and GTV are both essentially flat in the first six months of this year. Versus last year so I don't know you'll have to tell me but I look at that and you go man there's some robust stuff here there's a great growth story. I should have mentioned that that's on an annual basis on a quarterly basis they have five consecutive quarters of profitability which also seems. Impressive him pretty favorable but it's probably a slight worry that the. A lot of that growth seems like it's it's leveling off in 2023 I don't know if. That the most recent performance gets gets over weighted or underweighted and sort of evaluating the the prospects for the company. Scot: [31:19] Yeah the buyers will you know what every everyone has a different way they value things and they they're going to build their own models and the company will give them some guidance that's some of the stuff we did it we're not going to go over and but you have to be careful because you don't want to make forward-looking statements so this is this weird dance you do of you. You try to get people excited by not saying anything about the future which is which is a little tricky so you know what I imagine instacart s' just reading the tea leaves again they talked a lot about how they don't really do much sales and marketing which I kind of read to say, look we really hunkered down on our unique economic sand we've got it dialed in right now and spoiler will get to adds a lot of a lot of that has come from this ad piece. And I think now. [32:07] Because investor and I was the bullish scenario is you know they're going to raise at least 400 million they'll probably raise a lot of money from this they could start doing some advertising and you pick up some new customers that again I'm going to kind of hope they look at the cohorts those cohorts look like with what this in the here and they have at least the same unique anomic so if not better and I'm going to look at this growth accelerating wow what Wall Street loves their favorite favorite favorite kind of the top quadrant is accelerating Revenue growth an accelerating profitability and you know I could see a scenario the light has to go their way but I could see a scenario where that works here you know if they could if they could start spending some really careful sales and marketing dollars building the brand where they've been kind of under the radar for the most part and then. That works those cohorts stick and then they can work on the economics because that's gonna bring more advertisers per order because the more average more orders and more. GTV is going to bring more cpgs in that want to advertise against that then you could argue accelerating Revenue growth accelerating profitable unit economics. So I think that's the bull case the bear case is they've hit saturation they've got all the stores. 4% is anemic and nowhere to go but down. So that's the end of it is it is going to be interesting to see there's a little bit of A Tale of Two Cities in those possible outcomes. Jason: [33:36] Yeah what else jumped out at you in the management discussion. Scot: [33:43] They made a big point of talking about they have 7.7 million monthly active users which is a good number but they point out that in the u.s. there's 330 million consumers or I guess population so they use that and this is kind of one of those hints I was talking about the basically said hey we're. We've done good to get here but these are like the early adopters we still have a long way to go there's a lot of people you know I don't think they'll get all of them and I'll talk about that in a second but there's a lot more people that you should be using our service that aren't is so they kind of paint that 7.7 million and say that's teeny tiny compared to where we should be. And then you know the other thing they talked about that I thought was interesting I wanted to get your opinion on is they talk about, per user per month they get three hundred and Seventeen dollars and I was wondering I know you probably know this off the top of your head. What is if you look at the average US consumer and you probably look at the. Population of the convenience store that's like a kind of probably like that 100K and up household you know what is their monthly and is this like half of it a quarter what is your spidey sense tells you on that. Jason: [35:00] Yeah so real rough numbers the average American family and you know people shop for groceries in households versus people so it's almost better to talk in household so there's like 131 million households in the US and sin they've got. Seven million of them as customers the average household shops for groceries 1.6 times a week and they spend a hundred dollars per visit so you kind of you know rough that up and you get. Get what is that I'll have the intern do in turn do the math one point six times. 100 times, 4.5 is 720 total grocery spin which I don't have the census numbers in front of me but but that passes the smell test that so. Households are spending six seven hundred bucks a month and instacart saying that they're getting less than half of that. Scot: [36:12] Yeah and I saw some people speculate on this that, what their inferring is Davin they have an average order of 110 so this is like 2.6 instacart some month instacart orders per user per month that's another kind of interesting metric and then people are speculating in the saying the pattern is probably people are doing a big shop once a month and they're kind of going and getting you know, a lot of like maybe canned goods and things like that and then they supplement it with two or three instacart has to bring maybe a refresh of the the replenishable is like the cheese the milk the veggies and the fruits kind of thing. Again this is everyone just kind of like taking data and kind of going out for data point so the cone of uncertainty is pretty big out there but it kind of passed my sniff test that's how we've used it before, at our house with exception of wizard a lot at work to fill our snack area at work and we're probably like we're probably like top one quartile of this whole thing that's the number of snacks we get from Instagram. There's a deep does that that analysis of the one big shop yourself and then supplement does that. Jason: [37:26] No exact yeah I mean I think the Grocer's talk and I hesitate to bring this up because I don't think I remember I'll for off the top my head but there's like four typical types of shopping missions right so there is that like Pantry stocking shop there's like a weekly shop there's a. Occasion Bay shop where your your it's date night or it's Christmas or whatever and you make a special shop and then there's those, top off shops and I think it's generally agreed like there's not a big cohort of consumers that have just said I'm never using a grocery store again then I'm exclusive we gonna, I have all of my my calories show up at my doorstep so digital grocery ends up being one of the tools in the family's tool kit for, procuring their their calories and so it makes. Total sense that they would have a share that one of the ways they could grow is to increase that share presumably by. Being the best choice for more of those different kinds of missions. Scot: [38:34] Yeah and then the md&a they talk a lot about how they have these new offerings where you can get a weekly Monday thing and they're definitely poking around at this experimenting on how to grow the sand again they're kind of signaling we think we've got some room to go on this we can get that. [38:51] Bridge order up and we can get the ma use way up the second thing I noticed was you know they use this they use this phrase, several times you can tell it's kind of like must be tied to company values and they talk about we believe people want selection quality value and convenience if that sounds familiar to you the this is infamously brought up in the Amazon Jeff Bezos first shareholder letter in 1997 where he talks about the mark you know what Amazon believes and they believe that a multi-decade trend is people will not get tired of selection quality value and when value he uses kind of free shipping like versus product value is pretty specific on it and then convenience and then what got me thinking about this is. [39:38] Value inconvenience her you know they're often in conflict and this is the whole point of we've had, Casey on the show from the Lloyd there bifurcation kind of model which shows this was this I think a lot about this because this is the whole one of the whole reasons I started spiffy and we decided early on if we're going to be convenient we can't be the cheapest and I don't think people look at instacart as the cheapest you know whenever we use it it's kind of like, holy cow this is this is a pretty expensive treat in you know I really kind of need to be able to justify this to myself that I can't just pop over the grocery store and do this myself it needs to be yeah some some reason I'm going to miss a kid event or something that I'm getting a really good bang for the buck here so I thought that was interesting that at some point I wonder do they value part kind of struggle with you know how. Jason: [40:31] I think they have to have a. A more liberal definition of value because I think you're exactly right right and obviously you know value means different things to different people like they disclosed later in the S1 that they not surprisingly that they skew disproportionately to households that make over 100,000 a year compared to a traditional retail and particularly a traditional grocer like give I've no idea what it looked like when they actually did it but when Kroger went public or certainly when Walmart went public they would have talked about the top of their tree that we think the consumer really values price and and Walmart probably said price not value and you know they built a business around very aggressively maintaining those low prices because they thought that was the beginning of their flywheel and and you know Amazon talked about value but they when they said value a lot of what they meant was and we're going to you know have the very competitive or the lowest price on a lot of these goods and, the the business model of instacart makes it unlikely that that can be their positioning so they have to kind of, find a a valid but alternative definition of value to hang their hat on. Scot: [41:50] Yeah and I thought was interesting they put convenience a lot you know last you may say oh you're reading too much into it but you know I've been in rooms you spend so much time on every word there's a purpose to this order of selection quality value and convenience and and they mentioned this exact phrase like several times so this is a this seems to be an yeah a pretty important phrase in their their world to I just thought that was I want to get your take on you know at some point they may cross this road where they have to pick a lane and it'll be if it ain't going to be the value late you know I don't see a path there but you know maybe they think they can and you know they also talked about selling to the grocer some software so maybe that's kind of like how they're squeaking that in I don't know. Jason: [42:36] Yeah yeah and there's I think we'll talk about this and in our final conclusion but the there's multiple ways you could see this going over time and depending on which path it took like value could mean something different. So what will come back to that. I heard you like dissected all of the the disclose data and put together unit economic model for for instacart. Scot: [43:07] Yeah so it starts at the top so the GTV per order so every order that comes in they get the GTV as $110 and then there here's how they slice the onion so the biggest chunk goes to the grocer for the groceries and they get 83 percent which is $91 so right off the top we're left with $19 but now the grocer they have to go make all their money so instacart is that's what you would basically get I think if you and I went to the grocery store you know maybe they're getting a little bit of a discount but they're they're taking that $91 and they're adding $19 on top of it and this is all X tip there's a there's there is a delivery fee and what not so then the Shopper gets 8.2% or nine dollars in order and that's in that delivery fee and then they get the tips. Jason: [43:58] Clarification on shopper because like in most contact Shopper would mean the consumer that's buying the goods The Shopper in this case is is a instacart gig worker that goes to the store and gets Aggregates the order for the customer. Scot: [44:14] Exactly the gig worker is the Shopper so they get nine dollars and they get 100% of the tip so whenever you you know whenever you what what they don't say some of these gay places in this bothers me because we fell out on this they say the gig worker gets 100% but then they take a transaction fee of 3%, now I can't find they say 100% I can't see any little asterisks that says there's going to skim 3% or something so. [44:44] So to the hopefully they're being super up front and they the gig worker does get 100% of the tips but the tips aren't in the economic the kind of sit over on the side to go to kind of bypass instacart all together and they go straight to the shopper. Who also gets nine dollars from instacart so if you gave a 20 dollar tip the the Shoppers going to get 20 plus 9 or 22, then at this point we are finally at instacart Revenue which is ten dollars and that's into pieces seven dollars is the transaction revenue and three is ads. So almost half their margin you know so 30% I guess yeah. I say half because the line is going so fast it will become half probably by 2024 you know half the. Profit the margin the revenue that they get and probably disproportionate part of margin is from the ad piece which we're going to talk about in detail so that is. That's pretty important to this whole enchilada and until they figure that out this didn't really work I do. [45:48] So they get so 110 dollar order $91 goes the grocer that leaves us with 19 Shopper gets nine we're left with 10 7 of that, is the transaction Revenue three is ADS then their costs come out they have three dollars of cost per order. And this is this is things like you know their entire some allocation of all their website hosting the engineering team developed the app. I don't know if they would put sales and marketing in there and they weren't very specific about what they do and don't put in cogs so that was a question mark. And they're left with seven dollars of gross profit for that order. My bet is marketing is not in there and they kind of take that up later but again the didn't really. Disclose that I saw what all was and not in Cox so basically that 110 boils down to seven dollars a profit from them and if we looked at it you know. I bet that three of that seven is basically from the ads and you know because there's almost no cost to serve an ad and so so I thought that was pretty interesting that like you know around half of the Prophet basically is from the ad system. Jason: [47:00] Yeah I think I think it's for sure interesting and like you know two possibilities there there there, average value of an order is 110 bucks traditional brick-and-mortar grocer is a hundred bucks and so one question like did instacart wasn't totally clear I mean they tried to take credit for having a higher order value but it wasn't clear like do we think. There's something unique about our experience that causes people to spend more or. Is our service just more expensive and so therefore you know if I got the same 60 items from from Walmart it would cost me $100 but if I got it from instacart Cassandra and ten dollars. But if it's the latter and I'm sure the real answer somewhere in between but but if it's the latter then you go you know all of the, The Profit that instacart is potentially taking is kind of from the. The convenient spread where they're you know getting consumers to pay more for the extra convenience of this grocery delivery. Scot: [48:08] So that was the unique nanak's what did you discover from the cohorts. Jason: [48:12] Yeah well I think we both we both noticed that they had a pretty detailed cohort analysis in the s-1 and by cohort analysis what we mean is they. They break down all the revenue they get from every. Group of customers on the first year they acquire those customers and then they track the spending for that group of customers in each, subsequent year and so you have a cohort that you acquired in 2017 you have a cohort you acquired in 2018, so on and so forth through this 20:22 cohort and there's. Other dimensions you could do Court analysis on but this this tenure cohort is most common and loyal listeners of the show will know we've certainly talked about it before no most notably with a guest Professor Dan McCarthy. From Emory University who spends a lot of time. [49:13] Talking about and thinking about cohort analysis so I my first thought when I saw this cohort analysis is I'll bet you Dan McCarthy's really happy right now and is probably. Deep deep into these numbers and he has a phrase that he calls a super annuities which is for the circumstances. The older cohorts get more valuable over time and keep contributing more Revenue to your business which is, you know that if you think about it that's that's the ideal state right you want those kind of six-year-old cohorts to be. [49:51] Growing and be your most valuable and if they're you know significantly tailing off over time then like you know you start to question the core value proposition of the business like maybe customers get fatigued with your business or decide it's not a good value in the long run or something else so um the the big takeaway for me of the cohort analysis is the cohorts grow over time the if you look at like the year one value of this cohort it averages $226 and then it goes up 33 percent in year two to three hundred dollars and then up 16%, to 350 dollars in year three and then another up another 16% to 4:00 in your for and then up 10% $445 in year 5 and up another 8% to 480 dollars in year 6 and so like fundamentally. That is a very good picture of. The value of the cohorts and I'm certain why they chose to include the cohort analysis in there as one because I don't believe there's any. Any filing requirement to do that and certainly lots of companies don't include any cohort cohort analysis but then my kind of secondary take is. [51:12] You know not every year is the same and so some of those cohorts like started before Cove it and then they're their behavior, was slightly impacted by their maturity but also impacted by covet and some of these cohorts started after Cove ID and so one of the things you would look for in that cohort analysis is did these guys just get a big spike from Cova da, when people are afraid to go to grocery stores and you know has that worn off right and that's kind of a comment common narrative out there like I argue. [51:45] It's mostly misunderstood when people give that narrative about digital but it's. It's even more likely that is misunderstood if you have that narrative and grocery because grocery appears like on the surface to be the one category where hey we're at three percent e-commerce penetration before covet and now we're 12% e-commerce penetration and so this, these cohort analysis if if there was a spike that dip back down you would expect to see some of the later cohorts underperforming versus the the precoded cohorts and we don't see that right that like all the cohorts grow and they grow over time the rate of growth slows down over time which is like I think pretty pretty typical and not surprising um so all that was super favorable the one thing and one will have to have Dan on the show but the one thing that I think wasn't in here that you'd really want to understand how valuable the customer bases and and again guys like Dan kind of pioneered this idea of how you value a company based on their customer base. [52:53] And kind of set the price based on on this type of data but I think they would also want to see some churn data and understand. How many people are each in each of these cohorts and whether there's the same people or lots of defectors and new people coming and all those sorts of things and none of that was was disclosed and assess. Scot: [53:22] Yeah you're right the I think they're making the argument that the swamps turn but because they don't disclose it you kind of. You have to trust him and he would he would want that data because you know the whole Begin Again the the bull case here is all right if you got super annuities than spending ad dollars to bring super annuities in this smart right because everyone you bring in the door is going to follow this cohort and start of it you know you and I looking at a table that the says you're one they start at 2:26 and then by year 60 at 500 bucks so they they double over their life cycle in their GTV so over six years so if you know if you can go buy them for a hundred bucks a pop then you would just go and, and spend all that money in it should be we have a super annuity on one side you can spend a lot of money acquiring customers on the other. Jason: [54:15] For sure true what. Scot: [54:17] You turn there's something that they could hide in there. Jason: [54:19] Yeah so you have to worry about that you also side note like a thing that drives CFOs crazy about marketers is you also have to have this argument about correlation and causation right that like if I went out and bought a bunch of customers would they maintain this the same level of performance or with those those. Purchase customers through higher advertising and through greater sales and marketing a activities be less oil less valuable customers by. The answer varies depending on the business. Scot: [54:53] Yeah that's where I this kind of come back to that bifurcation thinks I think would you say 120 million households. Jason: [54:59] Yeah 131. Scot: [55:00] Yeah so there's probably I think it's probably a pretty evenly split between convenience and value so call it 60 and they've got 7.7 so there's actually good I think they've got a 10% share of, what does the actual dress for Market because I don't think they're going to get any of the value or in a consumers because yeah the valuing consumer does not pay for convenience they'll just go to grocery store. Jason: [55:23] Yeah and again in the bottom quartile a lot of people are shopping for for groceries with government assistance and I don't actually think instacart should double-check this but I don't believe instacart has a way to accept Snap payments. Scot: [55:36] Yeah I don't think the government is going to subsidize the food delivered. Jason: [55:39] Well they just you know they do in other great white white guy like you can order groceries online from Walmart and pay with SNAP but I don't think you can with instacart. Scot: [55:49] Yes that's another factor and then at some point yeah I'm sure you'll bring this up but the. The if you're if you're a grocer you know a lot of ours opt out of the sand to themselves and they like we have a Harris Teeter that they don't accept instacart yeah they're not on there and they want to do their own they want to own the customer themselves. Jason: [56:12] Yeah I save that discussion for other but I think that's a super important one. Scot: [56:16] Forget I said that that's a teaser that's it's a teaser was what we call a tease. Jason: [56:19] Excellent teaser yeah because I feel like we've gone to the add segment of the breakdown of is there anything else you wanted to cover before that Scott. Scot: [56:28] No I'm on the edge of my seat to hear what you thought about that specific. Jason: [56:31] Yeah so it turns out instacart sanad Essence and probably shouldn't surprise anyone you know Scott you alluded to the change in CEO the the current CEO for this IPO is fidge Asuma Seema who formerly was VP of advertising at Facebook so they brought in a Facebook. Exact to run this business and shoot I should have looked up what episode he was on but Seth Dallaire was a past guest on this show when he was the chief Revenue officer. For instacart which was right around the time that that fidget joined. [57:19] Instacart so we actually had a discussion about their aspirations to become an advertising business and spoiler alert, it worked at instacart which we're going to break into and that guess set the layer subsequently was hired as the chief Revenue officer at Walmart where he's. Building Walmart connect which is also working so turns out ads are becoming an increasingly important part of the ecosystem for retailers but the basic ad math at instacart is that in 2022 the last full year of data instacart generated 470 million dollars in ads so 470 million on 28 billion in GTV, means that that's about 2.6 percent of the spin. That went to ads it's thirty percent of their revenue today and. [58:20] It's growing at 29 percent so it went up 29% from 2022 to from 21 to 20 22. Um it's grown another twenty four percent in the first months of six months of 2023 so, a lot of the unit economics of their transactions have kind of stabilized and are flat the one thing that's still growing at a very fast double-digit pace, is the ad business and at seven and twenty million dollars it's already reasonably robust and they don't. Ads are not a line item on the income statement that they included like you know and presumably like it's not. You could argue it's not Material against the three billion in in Revenue. But the so we don't we don't really know exactly how profitable, Those ads are but in general we would call these ads or retail media Network and the you know people argue about how profitable these retail media networks are people particularly argue about Amazon's but kind of the middle of the range when people estimate how what how profitable these things are is that they're about 75 percent gross right so in theory they should be near 99% gross margin because like you don't have to make anything to sell an ad. [59:46] You know you do need some technology you need an ad server you need Administration and salespeople you need brand safety people you know there is. Some infrastructure some of which has to scale with the ad business and so the the kind of. Most common estimate that that I see out there is like 75% of that revenue from ad business is profit. So that implies that the ad business contributed seven 555 million to the. To the income statement for 2022. Um and they were only profitable 428 million in 2022 so that the ad business contribute like by that sort of slice the ad business contributed. [1:00:33] You know covered all of their losses and and was essentially all of their their profit. In in 2022 and it's growing faster than anything else so it's very clear that the ad business is a key. Tenant of this instacart model and they in the management can section they it was kind of funny working for a big, advertising agency because they had to spend a fair amount of time like justifying that ads are valuable good thing and that people are spending money on ads so they kind of you know paint paint this picture that consumer packaged Goods companies which are you know most of the goods that instacart cells that. [1:01:20] Cpgs in the u.s. spend about 200 billion dollars a year on advertising and currently about a quarter of that is digital. And so the. The you know a typical cpg spends like about thirty percent of their gross sales on advertising and you know at the moment instacart is collecting about less than three percent of its sales in advertising so I think they're saying like hey. Advertising is super effective it's an important part of our economic model and there's a ton of. Of potential growth for us in this market and that cpgs need us and they amongst their claims about the size of their business, there are 50 500 brands that are advertising on instacart today and those are. At the moment all brands that sell. [1:02:18] Whose Goods get sold on instacart so we call that endemic advertisers right so it's it's Mondelez selling cookies and folks like that a lot of advertising companies. Sell ads to people that aren't necessarily selling through the. The the platform we call those non-endemic advertisers and we I don't think there are any non-endemic advertisers on instacart as of yet. But so at the Top Line like these are these are solid fundamentals for an ad business you like. [1:02:54] From my perspective retail media networks are super important evolution in the space they are very important I actually think for a lot of smaller retailers they get overhyped and that there's a problem with scale with a lot of these but instacart appears to be one of the companies. That has enough scale to build a real. A real business around this there is a unique problem that instacart has with ads that you know I think they've only been partially able to remediate so far who's paying for the ads. [1:03:25] Right so they talked about the brands paying for the ad right it's Procter & Gamble about the ad but there's a lot of stakeholders with budgets at Procter & Gamble, there's Mark Pritchard that buys Super Bowl ads and tries to build the brand and make people love tied but there are also account teams, that are trying to Goose the sales at their account so there's a Walmart account team and a Kroger account team and an Albertsons account team and all of those guys have an ad budget, that they want to use to sell more stuff at Walmart Kroger and Albertsons respectively. And so the big problem you have with instacart is you spend that ad dollar with instacart and you don't actually know. Which retailer it's going to impact. Right and so it's kind of like it has to come out of the top of funnel ad budget but it's bottom of the funnel Performance Marketing, type ads mostly search ads and so not saying that model can't work but it's. [1:04:33] The the guys with budgets that are used to buying ads are used to a slightly different structure so I will say that at the moment instacart causes a lot of consternation because it's a it's an unusual Beast that people don't exactly know how to budget for or how to spend their money on and you know I would assume if instacart wants to grow a lot they have to make that, easier for for the brands to do. Scot: [1:05:00] Yeah so what do you think. They're so this is a relatively good chunk of Revenue where do you think they're getting it from is it online going offline I mean offline going online are they taking it from Google are they taking it from couponing or. Two Brands even do like newspaper inserts are still a thing like I know that back in the day. Jason: [1:05:22] So I know I yeah I think. Brands are pretty pretty rapidly shifting their their dollars to digital vehicles and so two things like there's you know traditional kind of, newspaper magazine advertising that's atrophying and and the brands are replacing that with digital there's a slight misnomer the whole privacy thing and Facebook is a real thing but you know who wasn't buying a huge amounts of Facebook ads are like National cpgs with huge brand recall so so you know those tended to be smaller Brands and longer tail things so it's less like oh. [1:06:05] The these guys are shifting from Facebook it's more they're shifting from old-school marketing and over are television to to these digital vehicles but a big chunk of it is still coming out of these trade budgets right and so there may have been a pool of money that was allocated to spend at Kroger and it used to get spend on newspaper circulars that were like Kroger ads that fell out of the newspaper and that's an increasingly ineffective vehicle or maybe they even got spent on floor decals in the aisle at Kroger right you know like Shopper marketing tactics or trade tactics and so increasingly the retail media networks are getting a chunk of those trade dollars and I do think instacart is getting some of those even though it's trickier to do because you know it's not allocated exactly 21 specific retailer at the moment. Scot: [1:07:07] Yeah the so what did the ad formats I've seen is I always get this one that's like you through some Quaker Oats granola bars in there if you add these six things will give you a five bucks or something I've seen a coupon and I've seen a you know an upsell hey you've previously bought this or you may like this are there those are the three main add units or am I missing something. Jason: [1:07:33] Yeah so I am not going to speak specifically about the variation in ad units but as a general rule like probably I'm assuming the most predominant ads on the platform are search ads right so people search for products like always and you know above all the organic results are a bunch of sponsored ads right and so off very often those don't have a special offer in them they're just premium. [1:08:00] And so a big chunk is probably those those search ads you know then they're there are like Banner type ads that that land either on like the homepage of a particular retailer or on a category page or subcategory page and more often those are likely to have some call-to-action offer in them so they might have a promotion or a discount of some kind and then in the digital space um there's a lot of what we call like top off and impulse ads which are what you were just talking about right and you know one of the big problems we have with digital grocery is when you go shopping at the grocery store your wife sends you to the store with a list of 10 items and you buy all those 10 items but then you walk by the ice cream aisle on your way to the cash wrap and you add ice cream even though you didn't plan to buy ice cream and then when you're standing in the cash wrap, you're sneering at that Snickers bar or that Wrigley gum and you add that to the car and maybe a cold Coke to drink on the way home from the grocery store so a big chunk of a traditional grocer sales are all these unplanned impulse purchases and that. [1:09:16] By default happens a lot less in digital Grocery and so a lot of these ad formats are kind of are, our Industries early efforts to try to reinvent digital impulse and I would I would call it pretty imperfect at the moment. Scot: [1:09:35] Don't you get a nursing inside about gum or something like because self-checkout smelled the gum that serendipity. Jason: [1:09:42] Yeah the the that that cash wrap used to be the most valuable real estate in a grocery store like the most Revenue per square foot was that what we call the cash wrap which is the. The conveyor belt that you stand in line and actually the first thing that killed the cash wrap was not any of this digital shopping or any of these things it was. Facebook and the mobile phone and simply because you now had something else to do when you are standing
Why is the past different from the future? Neil deGrasse Tyson and Chuck Nice explore the universe's deepest questions like why is there anything, what is the present, and if there could be a unified theory of physics with theoretical physicist Sean Carroll.For more information about the new book: https://startalkmedia.com/booksNOTE: StarTalk+ Patrons can listen to this entire episode commercial-free here: https://startalkmedia.com/show/physics-philosophy-with-sean-carroll/Thanks to our Patrons Nick hemmerich, Kelley Bard, Lou Casagrande, Nathaniel Johnston, Jesus Tamayo, and Leon for supporting us this week.Photo Credit: ESO/VVV, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons