American economist and author
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"Natural selectin is innovation ... that is when new things are invented in biology. The difference with humans is we have culture which makes us able to make innovations much faster."Are you interested in new forms of government? What do you think about betting markets – can they help our governance? How can we ensure the continuation of our cherished values? Interview with Robin Hanson, American economist and author. We will talk about his vision for the future of cities, cultural evolution, adaptability, innovation, and many more. Robin Hanson (born August 28, 1959) is an American economist and author known for his pioneering work on prediction markets and unconventional futuristic concepts. He currently serves as an associate professor of economics at George Mason University and was a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University. He holds a PhD in social science from Caltech, as well as degrees in physics and the conceptual foundations of science. Robin is widely recognized for inventing the Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule used in prediction markets and for proposing "futarchy," a governance system determined by betting markets. He also originated the "Great Filter" hypothesis to explain the lack of observable extraterrestrial civilizations. His major publications include The Age of Em (2016), which models a future economy of brain emulations, and The Elephant in the Brain (2018), which explores hidden human motives. Additionally, Robin is a vocal advocate for cryonics.Find out more about Robin through these links:Robin Hanson on LinkedInRobin Hanson website@robinhanson as Robin Hanson on X@RobinHanson as Robin Hanson on YoutubeOvercoming Bias - Robin Hanson's blogThe Age of EM - book by Robin HansonThe Elephant in the Brain - book by Robin Hanson and Kevin SimlerRobin Hanson on WikipediaRobin Hanson on Google ScholarRobin Hanson at TEDConnected episodes you might be interested in:No.274 - Interview with Richard Gill about disruptive technologiesNo.294 - Interview with Erick A. Brimen about Prospera HondurasNo.380 - Interview with Adam Miller about DAOs as new governance typeNo.388 - Interview with Maurice Berger and Raquel Medrano Clemente about cultural evolutionNo.389R - Shall we vote on values, but bet on beliefs? What was the most interesting part for you? What questions did arise for you? Let me know on Twitter @WTF4Cities or on the wtf4cities.com website where the shownotes are also available.I hope this was an interesting episode for you and thanks for tuning in.Episode generated with Descript assistance (affiliate link).Music by Lesfm from Pixabay
Are you interested in new forms of government? What do you think about betting markets – can they help our governance? How can we ensure the continuation of our cherished values? Trailer for episode 390 - interview with Robin Hanson, American economist and author. We will talk about his vision for the future of cities, cultural evolution, adaptability, innovation, and many more.Find out more in the episode.Episode generated with Descript assistance (affiliate link).Music by Lesfm from Pixabay
Are you interested in a governing system based on betting? Our debate today works with the article titled Shall we vote on values, but bet on beliefs? from 2000, by Robin Hanson. This is a great preparation to our next interview with Robin Hanson in episode 390 talking about the opportunities in the betting markets for governance. Since we are investigating the future of cities, I thought it would be interesting to see how this new form of governance could work. This article presents the revolutionary governing system where the public votes on values but bets on beliefs, with design challenges and opportunities within the system.Find the article through this link.Abstract: A key question to ask about any social institution is how well it generates, aggregates, and distributes information. Speculative markets seem to do well at this, while familiar democratic institutions, relying in part on academic institutions, seem to fail in many ways. So perhaps we should consider “futarchy,” a form of government where betting markets become our primary common source on matters of fact. Democracy would say what we want, while speculators would say how to get it. That is, elected representatives would formally define and manage an after-the-fact measurement of national welfare, while market speculators would say which policies they expect to raise national welfare. If we are willing to recommend policies that macroeconomic data suggest are causally related to GDP, it seems we should be willing to consider futarchy. Using an qualitative engineering-style approach, this paper considers thirty design issues with futarchy, and then presents a relatively specific proposal which responds to those concerns.Connecting episodes you might be interested in:No.022R - CryptoCitiesNo.369R - Liberland Blockchain WhitepaperYou can find the transcript through this link.What was the most interesting part for you? What questions did arise for you? Let me know on Twitter @WTF4Cities or on the wtf4cities.com website where the shownotes are also available.I hope this was an interesting episode for you and thanks for tuning in.Episode generated with Descript assistance (affiliate link).Music by Lesfm from Pixabay
Are you interested in new forms of government? What do you think about betting markets – can they help our governance? How can we ensure the continuation of our cherished values? Trailer for episode 390 - interview with Robin Hanson, American economist and author. We will talk about his vision for the future of cities, cultural evolution, adaptability, innovation, and many more.Find out more in the episode.Episode generated with Descript assistance (affiliate link).Music by Lesfm from Pixabay
Are you interested in new forms of government? What do you think about betting markets – can they help our governance? How can we ensure the continuation of our cherished values? Trailer for episode 390 - interview with Robin Hanson, American economist and author. We will talk about his vision for the future of cities, cultural evolution, adaptability, innovation, and many more.Find out more in the episode.Episode generated with Descript assistance (affiliate link).Music by Lesfm from Pixabay
Что такое рынки предсказаний, и почему они удивительно точно предсказывают будущее? Обсуждаем, как работает механизм вероятностной цены, зачем рынкам нужны реальные деньги, как они справляются (или не справляются) с инсайдерской торговлей и манипуляциями. В гости к нам пришел Никита Поваров, который сейчас руководит командой аналитики в JetBrains и почти два года развивает корпоративный рынок предсказаний внутри компании. Так что не обошли стороной феномен корпоративных рынков предсказаний и разобрались, можно ли использовать их как инструмент для A/B-тестов и сколько участников нужно для хорошего прогноза. Обратите внимание на секцию полезных ссылок. Сегодняшний гость приложил внушительный список дополнительных материалов. Также ждем вас, ваши лайки, репосты и комменты в мессенджерах и соцсетях! Telegram-чат: https://t.me/podlodka Telegram-канал: https://t.me/podlodkanews Страница в Facebook: www.facebook.com/podlodkacast/ Twitter-аккаунт: https://twitter.com/PodcastPodlodka Ведущие в выпуске: Cтас Цыганов, Егор Толстой, Полезные ссылки: Статья Гальтона в журнале “Природа” с названием Vox populi (про вес быка) https://web.mit.edu/curhan/www/docs/Articles/15341_Readings/Collective_Intelligence/Galton_1907_Vox_Populi.pdf Статья 2014 года с пересчётом результатов данных исследования Гальтона про “мудрость толпы” https://projecteuclid.org/journals/statistical-science/volume-29/issue-3/Revisiting-Francis-Galtons-Forecasting-Competition/10.1214/14-STS468.pdf Подробный рассказ что такое вероятности и как с ними обращаться практически https://youtu.be/wcIW6wwkbYA?si=6XjbNdyNUw6TRxDl Must watch рассказ от Robin Hanson про prediction markets. Почему они работают и как их использовать https://youtu.be/4yZKGbq1YmA Исследование о том, что prediction markets лучше отдельных экспертов https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1516179112 Статья про то, что много участников в отдельном рынке не нужно https://www.ubplj.org/index.php/jpm/article/download/418/449/1316 Эмпирика, что можно и без денег в Prediction Markets https://users.nber.org/~jwolfers/papers/DoesMoneyMatter.pdf Описание успехов корпоративных рынков предсказаний. В Google и других компаниях https://www.jstor.org/stable/43869468 Качество предсказаний популярного рынка предсказаний, работающего без денег, Manifold https://manifold.markets/calibration
Robin Hanson oroar sig för svenska vintrar efter 4 år i varma Kalifornien, har ändrat sitt framgångsrika träningsupplägg - varför, och varför går han med värmeställ på löpband, vad lär man sig av att alltid få stryk på träningen på Cal Berkeley, tar han EM-medalj om han når sin mål-tid? Därför ska man anställa en ekonomi-examinerade Robin. När tävlar han mot Victor på 400 fritt? Detta och mer i snabba podden #snabbanan med Ola Strömberg och idag Robin Hanson.'
In this episode of The Armen Show, host Armen Shirvanian is joined by economist and author Dr. Robin Hanson for a deep and wide-ranging conversation on open discourse, prediction markets, futarchy, and the evolution of culture. They begin by examining the value of figuring things out together – why true intellectual collaboration requires curiosity, humility, […]
While the Bitcoin Core v30 vs Knots debate went on, Paul Sztorc was hard at work building the Drivechains software. However, this doesn't meant that he doesn't have any opinions about the recent events and their greater significance. Time stamps: 00:01:30 - Welcome to the Bitcoin Takeover Podcast and Paul's Second Appearance This Season 00:02:28 - Bitcoin Civil War: Core v30 vs Knots Debate 00:03:02 - Nick Szabo Joining the Debate and Ties to Samson Mow's Company 00:04:11 - Op Return Limit Silliness and Historical Bitcoin Uncensored Humor 00:05:21 - Shift in Bitcoin Community: From Subversive to Suit Coiner Route 00:06:02 - Resistance Money, Privacy, and Black/Gray Markets 00:09:18 - Rambling Due to Sickness/Jetlag and Software Demo Tease 00:09:29 - LayerTwo Labs Software Overview and Download Instructions 00:11:55 - Tweet on Turning Transactions into JPEGs 00:13:00 - Bit Window Software Explanation vs Bitcoin Knots 00:15:31 - Bit 300 Activator vs Bitcoin Core Pull Requests 00:17:25 - No More Soft Forks in Bitcoin and Activation Challenges 00:18:23 - CTV Almost Activated, Shift to Filter Debates 00:19:10 - Bitcoin's Potential Death from Complacency 00:19:36 - Derangements of Bitcoin Post and Lightning as Sacred Cow 00:20:02 - Tabconf Presentation on Lightning Network Issues 00:22:52 - Lightning Network Blackpill Article and Updates 00:24:40 - Lightning Cult and Misunderstandings 00:26:24 - Promoting Chaumian Ecash and Human Rights Foundation 00:27:03 - Funding R&D: Ecological Impacts and Bad Ideas 00:29:02 - Maginot Line Example: Funding Bad Defenses 00:30:16 - Drivechains Activation on Litecoin Progress 00:31:58 - Next Tests: Testnet 4 and Forknet Realism 00:32:58 - Litecoin Activation Process and Differences 00:34:49 - Dogecoin Merged Mining and Potential Activation 00:35:26 - Sky Doge as First Drivechain Chain 00:36:50 - Bit Window Advantages Over Knots 00:37:25 - Views on Mining Pools and Game Theory 00:40:05 - Critique of Luke Dash Jr.'s Ideas on Pools 00:41:05 - Transaction Relay Policies and Miner Incentives 00:41:47 - Emotional Manipulation in Debates 00:43:13 - Raising Funding and Different Approaches vs Luke 00:44:02 - Marketing: Funny Videos and Memes 00:45:05 - Luke Dash Jr.'s Character and Expertise 00:46:05 - Experts vs Elites in Bitcoin 00:48:08 - Testing LayerTwo Labs Software on OSes 00:48:38 - Windows/Linux Discussion and Preferences 00:59:30 - ZK Rollups and Data Availability on Bitcoin (Post-Truncation) 01:00:06 - Non-Miner L2s Have No Future 01:01:47 - Drivechain as Minimal, Optional Soft Fork 01:02:55 - Tom Cruise Party Analogy for Bitcoin Upgrades 01:03:08 - Derangements of Bitcoin Post Recommendation 01:03:50 - Viewer Comment: Layer 2s Bad, More Altcoins Needed 01:04:03 - Importance of Competition in Crypto 01:07:02 - Altcoins as Regression Due to Switching Costs 01:08:33 - Sponsor Plugs: LayerTwo Labs, SideShift, Bitcoin.com, NoOnes 01:09:07 - Questions: Why Zcash for Fungibility Sidechain? DAGs? 01:13:35 - Prediction Market L2 and Ambitious Design 01:14:24 - Truthcoin History and Inspiration for Others 01:16:34 - Robin Hanson as Prediction Market OG 01:17:23 - Zcash vs Monero: Code Forks and Privacy Comparison 01:21:30 - Privacy via Decoys vs Pools in Zcash/Monero 01:24:10 - Zcash Advantages for Sidechains 01:26:30 - Zcash Drawbacks Ideal for Sidechain Rollovers 01:27:42 - Zcash as Research Lab for Bitcoin/Ethereum 01:28:07 - R&D as Creative Endeavor Over Funding 01:30:19 - Zcash Launch Story and Roger Ver's Influence 01:31:08 - Truthcoin Parallels and Sidechain Intent 01:32:03 - Maximalist Sacrifices for Bitcoin 01:32:31 - Blockstream's Failure and Altcoin Rise 01:34:29 - Thoughts on DAGs (e.g., Kaspa, Quai) 01:36:20 - SPV Importance and Satoshi's Vision 01:39:05 - SPV Balances Security and Convenience 01:39:59 - DAGs Not Solving Key Scaling Problems 01:42:42 - Shitcoin Definition: Outdated Dichotomy 01:43:53 - Optimism for Bitcoin's Future Choice 01:45:32 - One Coin to Rule Them All Analogy 01:45:38 - Thanks, Wrap-Up, and Jay Berg Recommendation 01:46:54 - Future Live Demo Tease 01:47:16 - Join Drivechain Insiders Telegram Group 01:48:41 - Closing and Thanks
Minds Almost Meeting: Season 11, Episode 7.View the transcript for this episode here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com/episodes/crisis-of-cultureImagine two smart curious friendly and basically truth-seeking people, but from very different intellectual traditions. Traditions with different tools, priorities, and ground rules. What would they discuss? Would they talk past each other? Make any progress? Would anyone want to hear them? Economist Robin Hanson and philosopher Agnes Callard decided to find out.Visit the Minds Almost Meeting website here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com
Minds Almost Meeting: Season 11, Episode 6.View the transcript for this episode here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com/episodes/the-world-of-yesterdayImagine two smart curious friendly and basically truth-seeking people, but from very different intellectual traditions. Traditions with different tools, priorities, and ground rules. What would they discuss? Would they talk past each other? Make any progress? Would anyone want to hear them? Economist Robin Hanson and philosopher Agnes Callard decided to find out.Visit the Minds Almost Meeting website here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com
Minds Almost Meeting: Season 11, Episode 5.View the transcript for this episode here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com/episodes/taylor-swifts-engagementImagine two smart curious friendly and basically truth-seeking people, but from very different intellectual traditions. Traditions with different tools, priorities, and ground rules. What would they discuss? Would they talk past each other? Make any progress? Would anyone want to hear them? Economist Robin Hanson and philosopher Agnes Callard decided to find out.Visit the Minds Almost Meeting website here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com
In this episode of Crazy Wisdom, host Stewart Alsop speaks with Robin Hanson, economist and originator of the idea of futarchy, about how conditional betting markets might transform governance by tying decisions to measurable outcomes. Their conversation moves through examples of organizational incentives in business and government, the balance between elegant theories and messy implementation details, the role of AI in robust institutions, and the tension between complexity and simplicity in legal and political systems. Hanson highlights historical experiments with futarchy, reflects on polarization and collective behavior in times of peace versus crisis, and underscores how ossified bureaucracies mirror software rot. To learn more about his work, you can find Robin Hanson online simply by searching his name or his blog overcomingbias.com, where his interviews—including one with Jeffrey Wernick on early applications of futarchy—are available.Check out this GPT we trained on the conversationTimestamps00:05 Hanson explains futarchy as conditional betting markets that tie governance to measurable outcome metrics, contrasting elegant ideas with messy implementation details.00:10 He describes early experiments, including Jeffrey Wernick's company in the 1980s, and more recent trials in crypto and an India-based agency.00:15 The conversation shifts to how companies use stock prices as feedback, comparing public firms tied to speculators with private equity and long-term incentives.00:20 Alsop connects futarchy to corporate governance and history, while Hanson explains how futarchy can act as a veto system against executive self-interest.00:25 They discuss conditional political markets in elections, AI participation in institutions, and why proof of human is unnecessary for robust systems.00:30 Hanson reflects on simplicity versus complexity in democracy and legal systems, noting how futarchy faces similar design trade-offs.00:35 He introduces veto markets and outcome metrics, adding nuance to how futarchy could constrain executives while allowing discretion.00:40 The focus turns to implementation in organizations, outcome-based OKRs, and trade-offs between openness, liquidity, and transparency.00:45 They explore DAOs, crypto governance, and the need for focus, then compare news-driven attention with deeper institutional design.00:50 Hanson contrasts novelty with timelessness in academia and policy, explaining how futarchy could break the pattern of weak governance.00:55 The discussion closes on bureaucratic inertia, software rot, and how government ossifies compared to adaptive private organizations.Key InsightsFutarchy proposes that governance can be improved by tying decisions directly to measurable outcome metrics, using conditional betting markets to reveal which policies are expected to achieve agreed goals. This turns speculation into structured decision advice, offering a way to make institutions more competent and accountable.Early experiments with futarchy existed decades ago, including Jeffrey Wernick's 1980s company that made hiring and product decisions using prediction markets, as well as more recent trials in crypto-based DAOs and a quiet adoption by a government agency in India. These examples show that the idea, while radical, is not just theoretical.A central problem in governance is the tension between elegant ideas and messy implementation. Hanson emphasizes that while the core concept of futarchy is simple, real-world use requires addressing veto powers, executive discretion, and complex outcome metrics. The evolution of institutions involves finding workable compromises without losing the simplicity of the original vision.The conversation highlights how existing governance in corporations mirrors these challenges. Public firms rely heavily on speculators and short-term stock incentives, while private equity benefits from long-term executive stakes. Futarchy could offer companies a new tool, giving executives market-based feedback on major decisions before they act.Institutions must be robust not just to human diversity but also to AI participation. Hanson argues that markets, unlike one-person-one-vote systems, can accommodate AI traders without needing proof of human identity. Designing systems to be indifferent to whether participants are human or machine strengthens long-term resilience.Complexity versus simplicity emerges as a theme, with Hanson noting that democracy and legal systems began with simple structures but accreted layers of rules that now demand lawyers to navigate. Futarchy faces the same trade-off: it starts simple, but real implementation requires added detail, and the balance between elegance and robustness becomes crucial.Finally, the episode situates futarchy within broader social trends. Hanson connects rising polarization and inequality to times of peace and prosperity, contrasting this with the unifying effect of external threats. He also critiques bureaucratic inertia and “software rot” in government, arguing that without innovation in governance, even advanced societies risk ossification.
Minds Almost Meeting: Season 11, Episode 4.View the transcript for this episode here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com/episodes/orwell-and-socialismImagine two smart curious friendly and basically truth-seeking people, but from very different intellectual traditions. Traditions with different tools, priorities, and ground rules. What would they discuss? Would they talk past each other? Make any progress? Would anyone want to hear them? Economist Robin Hanson and philosopher Agnes Callard decided to find out.Visit the Minds Almost Meeting website here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com
Minds Almost Meeting: Season 11, Episode 3.View the transcript for this episode here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com/episodes/weirdImagine two smart curious friendly and basically truth-seeking people, but from very different intellectual traditions. Traditions with different tools, priorities, and ground rules. What would they discuss? Would they talk past each other? Make any progress? Would anyone want to hear them? Economist Robin Hanson and philosopher Agnes Callard decided to find out.Visit the Minds Almost Meeting website here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com
Minds Almost Meeting: Season 11, Episode 1.View the transcript for this episode here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com/episodes/platos-republicImagine two smart curious friendly and basically truth-seeking people, but from very different intellectual traditions. Traditions with different tools, priorities, and ground rules. What would they discuss? Would they talk past each other? Make any progress? Would anyone want to hear them? Economist Robin Hanson and philosopher Agnes Callard decided to find out.Visit the Minds Almost Meeting website here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com
Minds Almost Meeting: Season 11, Episode 1.View the transcript for this episode here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com/episodes/ritualImagine two smart curious friendly and basically truth-seeking people, but from very different intellectual traditions. Traditions with different tools, priorities, and ground rules. What would they discuss? Would they talk past each other? Make any progress? Would anyone want to hear them? Economist Robin Hanson and philosopher Agnes Callard decided to find out.Visit the Minds Almost Meeting website here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com
Jacky Pritchard, political bettor and former NY state lawyer, explains how Andrew Cuomo emerged as the frontrunning for New York City mayor. Timestamps 0:17: Jacky Pritchard 0:55: Pratik's impressions from Queens 2:44: Follow @iabvek and @politicalkiwi 3:17: Intro ends 5:17: Interview begins 6:00: How Jacky became interested in political betting 8:31: Jacky's legal background 9:52: How Cuomo made a comeback 22:46: Cuomo's scandals 26:10: Cuomo's legal problems 27:01: #metoo movement 30:34: Eric Adams 33:46: Cuomo as frontrunner 34:32: DoJ investigation against Cuomo 36:10: Zohran Mamdani 37:07: Ranked choice voting 38:41: Margin of victory 40:39: Number of RCV rounds 41:10: End of interview with Jacky 41:24: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 42:43: Forecasting meetups Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X: @ssgamblers Trade on the NYC Mayor's race at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. The next Washington DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets meetup is on Wednesday, June 25 from 6-9pm. Guest speaker: Robin Hanson. Details here: https://partiful.com/e/50RbhKj6jsiww1A8QKYO
Why do cultures degenerate? At the recent Natal Conference, Robin Hanson cites biological and evolutionary factors. However, if one looks to Mises and the Austrians, we look squarely at human action that begins with the human mind and purposeful action.Original article: https://mises.org/mises-wire/culture-degeneration-biological-or-ideological
Why do cultures degenerate? At the recent Natal Conference, Robin Hanson cites biological and evolutionary factors. However, if one looks to Mises and the Austrians, we look squarely at human action that begins with the human mind and purposeful action.Original article: https://mises.org/mises-wire/culture-degeneration-biological-or-ideological
Could our planet be under the quiet watch of an alien civilization that's a million years ahead of us? In this fascinating conversation, economist and futurist Robin D. Hanson explores a bold and thought-provoking theory: that Earth might be subtly monitored by highly advanced extraterrestrials—perhaps as caretakers, silent observers, or participants in a vast, ancient experiment. Hanson, author of The Age of Em and co-originator of the "Great Filter" hypothesis, brings a unique interdisciplinary perspective, blending economics, evolutionary theory, and speculative futurism. We dive into the possibility that humanity may not be alone in its evolutionary journey—and that we might even share a distant, hidden past with these alien watchers.SHOW NOTESBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/podcast-ufo--5922140/support.
Are we alone in the universe—or already living alongside an ancient alien intelligence? In this mind-bending exploration, Professor Robin Hanson (George Mason University & Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute) breaks down the statistical odds that alien life exists and why it may have already been found in our own solar system. From AI-driven extraterrestrials silently observing us, to the chilling theory that humans are being domesticated by advanced alien civilizations, Hanson reveals where alien life is most likely to emerge, why UFO sightings might actually be real, and how our understanding of “quiet” vs. “loud” aliens could change everything we know about our future. Robin Hanson's Book, The Elephant in the Brain: Hidden Motives in Everyday Life: https://www.elephantinthebrain.com/ BialikBreakdown.comYouTube.com/mayimbialik
The shifts in cultural evolution are impacting our society in ways we can't ignore.Today, we're joined by Robin Hanson, economist and polymath from George Mason University. Robin is known for exploring questions that often remain unanswered, from prediction markets to the possibilities of alien civilizations.In this conversation, we explore how his Futarchy concept, after 26 years, has found its way into the world of crypto, the effects of cultural drift, and the intersection of population decline with advancing AI. We dive into how society has lost some of its evolutionary selection pressures and uncover some of the hidden challenges we face.Robin's insights on cultural drift and potential solutions at the scale of civilization will give you a new way of looking at the world.Join The Rollup Edge: https://members.therollup.coWebsite: https://therollup.co/Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1P6ZeYd..Podcast: https://therollup.co/category/podcastFollow us on X: https://www.x.com/therollupcoFollow Rob on X: https://www.x.com/robbie_rollupFollow Andy on X: https://www.x.com/ayyyeandyJoin our TG group: https://t.me/+8ARkR_YZixE5YjBhThe Rollup Disclosures: https://therollup.co/the-rollup-discl
As a listener of TOE you can get a special 20% off discount to The Economist and all it has to offer! Visit https://www.economist.com/toe What if you had a thousand doctors working for you 24/7, at virtually no cost? In this episode of Theories of Everything, a panel of leading AI and medical experts explores how “medical swarms” of intelligent agents could revolutionize healthcare, making personalized, concierge-level treatment accessible to all. This isn't science fiction, it's the near future and it will change everyone's life. Join My New Substack (Personal Writings): https://curtjaimungal.substack.com Listen on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/SpotifyTOE Become a YouTube Member (Early Access Videos): https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCdWIQh9DGG6uhJk8eyIFl1w/join Links Mentioned: • Ekkolapto: https://www.ekkolapto.org/polymath • Ekkolapto's Longevity Hackathon: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLy5dPSW_KkniuHpoLwlzkYcxhxn50Mn0T • William Hahn's lab: https://mpcrlab.com/ • Michael Levin's presentation at ekkolapto: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Exdz2HKP7u0 • Gil Blander's InsideTracker (website): https://blog.insidetracker.com/ • Dan Elton's website: https://www.moreisdifferent.com/ • FAU's Sandbox: https://www.fau.edu/sandbox/ • Will Hahn on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xr4R7eh5f_M&t=1s • Will Hahn's in-person interview on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fkg0uTA3qU • Michael Levin on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8iFtaltX-s • Stephen Wolfram on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YRlQQw0d-4 • Neil Turok's lecture on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gwhqmPqRl4&list=PLZ7ikzmc6zlOYgTu7P4nfjYkv3mkikyBa&index=13 • Robin Hanson on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LEomfUU4PDs • Tyler Goldstein (YouTube): http://www.youtube.com/@theoryofeveryone GO TO THIS MAN'S YOUTUBE CHANNEL. HE HELPED WITH THE CAMERA WORK IMPROMPTU AND ALSO HAS A FANTASTIC CHANNEL ANALYZING THEORIES. THANK YOU, TYLER! • Joscha Bach on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MNBxfrmfmI • Manolis Kellis on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g56lxZwnaqg • Geoffrey Hinton on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_DUft-BdIE Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 4:43 A New Approach to Healthcare 5:33 AI in Medical Imaging 7:40 Cognitive Models 11:09 Education in Medicine 23:02 Exploring the Boundaries of AI 32:04 The Future of AI in Medicine 37:20 Swarming Agents 41:49 The Ethics of AI in Healthcare 45:17 AI into Clinical Practice 55:58 Preparing for an AI-Driven Future 1:15:03 The Human Element in Medicine 1:17:19 Emotional Intelligence in AI 1:20:11 Unified Theory in Medicine 1:21:31 Conclusion Support TOE on Patreon: https://patreon.com/curtjaimungal Twitter: https://twitter.com/TOEwithCurt Discord Invite: https://discord.com/invite/kBcnfNVwqs #science Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Minds Almost Meeting: Season 10, Episode 11.View the transcript for this episode here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com/episodes/bsImagine two smart curious friendly and basically truth-seeking people, but from very different intellectual traditions. Traditions with different tools, priorities, and ground rules. What would they discuss? Would they talk past each other? Make any progress? Would anyone want to hear them? Economist Robin Hanson and philosopher Agnes Callard decided to find out.Visit the Minds Almost Meeting website here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com
Rula patients typically pay $15 per session when using insurance. Connect with quality therapists and mental health experts who specialize in you at https://www.rula.com/TOE #rulapod Try Huel with 15% OFF + Free Gift for New Customers today using my code theoriesofeverything at https://huel.com/theoriesofeverything . Fuel your best performance with Huel today! Is Earth being monitored by an advanced civilization one million years ahead of us? And does this alien civilization actually share an ancient past with humanity? Economist Robin Hanson explores a provocative theory suggesting that highly evolved extraterrestrials may be subtly observing us—either as caretakers or as part of a long-running experiment. From there, the conversation delves into the intricacies of academic funding and the peer review process. As a listener of TOE you can get a special 20% off discount to The Economist and all it has to offer! Visit https://www.economist.com/toe Join My New Substack (Personal Writings): https://curtjaimungal.substack.com Links Mentioned: - Robin's blog: https://www.overcomingbias.com/ - Robin's profile: https://economics.gmu.edu/people/rhanson - Robin's book: https://www.amazon.com/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/0198754620 - Tyler Cowen on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwieLd7Lyc8&ab_channel=CurtJaimungal - Gregory Chaitin on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PoEuav8G6sY - Matthew Segal on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeTm4fSXpbM - Daniel Van Zant's article on incentive markets: https://www.danielvanzant.com/p/breakthrough-incentive-markets - Michael Levin on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8iFtaltX-s - Lue Elizondo on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAmFlLfsZKM - Ross Coulthart on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQnGcX7oxms Listen on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/SpotifyTOE Become a YouTube Member (Early Access Videos): https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCdWIQh9DGG6uhJk8eyIFl1w/join Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction 01:36 - The Great Filter 05:38 - Where Are The Aliens? 09:13 - UFOs 16:50 - Panspermia 23:05 - Alien Hierarchies 27:30 - Alien Culture & Motivations 33:18 - Probability of Aliens 39:18 - Truth 49:41 - Fall of Academia 01:11:27 - Peer Review 01:20:22 - Ranking Ideas 01:23:09 - The System is “Broken” Support TOE on Patreon: https://patreon.com/curtjaimungal Twitter: https://twitter.com/TOEwithCurt Discord Invite: https://discord.com/invite/kBcnfNVwqs #science #aliens Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
I'm back, baby. I've been away traveling for podcasts and am excited to bring you new ones with Michael Levin, William Hahn, Robin Hanson, and Emily Riehl, coming up shortly. They're already recorded. I've been recovering from a terrible flu but pushed through it to bring you today's episode with Urs Schreiber. This one is quite mind-blowing. It's quite hairy mathematics, something called higher category theory, and how using this math (which examines the structure of structure) allows one manner of finding "something" from "nothing." Here, "nothing" means the empty set, and "something" is defined as fermions and even 11D supergravity. It's the first time this material has been presented in this manner. Enjoy. NOTE: Link to technical details are here from Urs Schreiber: https://ncatlab.org/schreiber/show/Peri+Pantheorias As a listener of TOE you can get a special 20% off discount to The Economist and all it has to offer! Visit https://www.economist.com/toe Join My New Substack (Personal Writings): https://curtjaimungal.substack.com Listen on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/SpotifyTOE Become a YouTube Member (Early Access Videos): https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCdWIQh9DGG6uhJk8eyIFl1w/join Links Mentioned: - nLab website: https://ncatlab.org/nlab/show/HomePage - Paper on category theory: https://people.math.osu.edu/cogdell.1/6112-Eilenberg&MacLane-www.pdf - “Higher Topos Theory for Physics” (Urs's talk): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GD20W6vxMI4 - “Higher Topos Theory for Physics” (Urs's paper): https://arxiv.org/pdf/2311.11026 - Stephen Wolfram on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YRlQQw0d-4 - Feynman's thesis: https://faculty.washington.edu/seattle/physics541/2012-path-integrals/thesis.pdf - Differential cohomology in a cohesive ∞-topos (Urs's paper): https://arxiv.org/pdf/1310.7930 - M-Theory from the Superpoint (paper): https://arxiv.org/pdf/1702.01774 - Character Map in Non-Abelian Cohomology, The: Twisted, Differential, and Generalized (textbook): https://amzn.to/4bFuz7H - TOE's String Theory Iceberg: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4PdPnQuwjY Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:27 The Creation of nLab 04:36 Philosophy Meets Physics 07:55 The Role of Mathematical Language 09:32 Emergence from Nothing 16:25 Towards a Theory of Everything 22:21 The Problem with Modern Physics 25:31 Diving into Category Theory 35:30 Understanding Adjunctions 41:46 The Significance of Duality 52:54 Exploring Toposes 1:14:20 The UNEDA Lemma and Generalized Spaces 1:16:37 Charts in Physics 1:20:55 Introduction to Infinitesimal Disks 1:23:56 The Emergence of Supergeometry 1:27:33 Transitioning to Gauge Theories 1:28:11 Exploring Singularities in Physics 1:32:50 The Role of Superformal Spaces 1:36:44 Functors and Their Implications 1:40:51 From Nothing to Emergent Structures 1:43:04 Hegel's Influence on Modern Physics 1:54:07 Discovering Higher-Dimensional Structures 1:56:30 The Path to 11-Dimensional Supergravity 1:57:21 Universal Central Extensions 2:03:21 The Journey to M-Theory 2:11:19 Globalizing the Structure of Supergravity 2:15:36 Understanding Global Charges in Physics 2:23:31 Dirac's Insights into Gauge Potentials 2:30:21 The Quest for Non-Perturbative Physics 2:39:04 Conclusion Support TOE on Patreon: https://patreon.com/curtjaimungal Twitter: https://twitter.com/TOEwithCurt Discord Invite: https://discord.com/invite/kBcnfNVwqs #science #theoreticalphysics Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Minds Almost Meeting: Season 10, Episode 10.View the transcript for this episode here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com/episodes/kafkas-the-castleImagine two smart curious friendly and basically truth-seeking people, but from very different intellectual traditions. Traditions with different tools, priorities, and ground rules. What would they discuss? Would they talk past each other? Make any progress? Would anyone want to hear them? Economist Robin Hanson and philosopher Agnes Callard decided to find out.Visit the Minds Almost Meeting website here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com
Minds Almost Meeting: Season 10, Episode 9.View the transcript for this episode here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com/episodes/fertility-againImagine two smart curious friendly and basically truth-seeking people, but from very different intellectual traditions. Traditions with different tools, priorities, and ground rules. What would they discuss? Would they talk past each other? Make any progress? Would anyone want to hear them? Economist Robin Hanson and philosopher Agnes Callard decided to find out.Visit the Minds Almost Meeting website here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com
On this episode of Crazy Wisdom, host Stewart Alsop speaks with Ivan Vendrov for a deep and thought-provoking conversation covering AI, intelligence, societal shifts, and the future of human-machine interaction. They explore the "bitter lesson" of AI—that scale and compute ultimately win—while discussing whether progress is stalling and what bottlenecks remain. The conversation expands into technology's impact on democracy, the centralization of power, the shifting role of the state, and even the mythology needed to make sense of our accelerating world. You can find more of Ivan's work at nothinghuman.substack.com or follow him on Twitter at @IvanVendrov.Check out this GPT we trained on the conversation!Timestamps00:00 Introduction and Setting00:21 The Bitter Lesson in AI02:03 Challenges in AI Data and Infrastructure04:03 The Role of User Experience in AI Adoption08:47 Evaluating Intelligence and Divergent Thinking10:09 The Future of AI and Society18:01 The Role of Big Tech in AI Development24:59 Humanism and the Future of Intelligence29:27 Exploring Kafka and Tolkien's Relevance29:50 Tolkien's Insights on Machine Intelligence30:06 Samuel Butler and Machine Sovereignty31:03 Historical Fascism and Machine Intelligence31:44 The Future of AI and Biotech32:56 Voice as the Ultimate Human-Computer Interface36:39 Social Interfaces and Language Models39:53 Javier Malay and Political Shifts in Argentina50:16 The State of Society in the U.S.52:10 Concluding Thoughts on Future ProspectsKey InsightsThe Bitter Lesson Still Holds, but AI Faces Bottlenecks – Ivan Vendrov reinforces Rich Sutton's "bitter lesson" that AI progress is primarily driven by scaling compute and data rather than human-designed structures. While this principle still applies, AI progress has slowed due to bottlenecks in high-quality language data and GPU availability. This suggests that while AI remains on an exponential trajectory, the next major leaps may come from new forms of data, such as video and images, or advancements in hardware infrastructure.The Future of AI Is Centralization and Fragmentation at the Same Time – The conversation highlights how AI development is pulling in two opposing directions. On one hand, large-scale AI models require immense computational resources and vast amounts of data, leading to greater centralization in the hands of Big Tech and governments. On the other hand, open-source AI, encryption, and decentralized computing are creating new opportunities for individuals and small communities to harness AI for their own purposes. The long-term outcome is likely to be a complex blend of both centralized and decentralized AI ecosystems.User Interfaces Are a Major Limiting Factor for AI Adoption – Despite the power of AI models like GPT-4, their real-world impact is constrained by poor user experience and integration. Vendrov suggests that AI has created a "UX overhang," where the intelligence exists but is not yet effectively integrated into daily workflows. Historically, technological revolutions take time to diffuse, as seen with the dot-com boom, and the current AI moment may be similar—where the intelligence exists but society has yet to adapt to using it effectively.Machine Intelligence Will Radically Reshape Cities and Social Structures – Vendrov speculates that the future will see the rise of highly concentrated AI-powered hubs—akin to "mile by mile by mile" cubes of data centers—where the majority of economic activity and decision-making takes place. This could create a stark divide between AI-driven cities and rural or off-grid communities that choose to opt out. He draws a parallel to Robin Hanson's Age of Em and suggests that those who best serve AI systems will hold power, while others may be marginalized or reduced to mere spectators in an AI-driven world.The Enlightenment's Individualism Is Being Challenged by AI and Collective Intelligence – The discussion touches on how Western civilization's emphasis on the individual may no longer align with the realities of intelligence and decision-making in an AI-driven era. Vendrov argues that intelligence is inherently collective—what matters is not individual brilliance but the ability to recognize and leverage diverse perspectives. This contradicts the traditional idea of intelligence as a singular, personal trait and suggests a need for new frameworks that incorporate AI into human networks in more effective ways.Javier Milei's Libertarian Populism Reflects a Global Trend Toward Radical Experimentation – The rise of Argentina's President Javier Milei exemplifies how economic desperation can drive societies toward bold, unconventional leaders. Vendrov and Alsop discuss how Milei's appeal comes not just from his radical libertarianism but also from his blunt honesty and willingness to challenge entrenched power structures. His movement, however, raises deeper questions about whether libertarianism alone can provide a stable social foundation, or if voluntary cooperation and civil society must be explicitly cultivated to prevent libertarian ideals from collapsing into chaos.AI, Mythology, and the Need for New Narratives – The conversation closes with a reflection on the power of mythology in shaping human understanding of technological change. Vendrov suggests that as AI reshapes the world, new myths will be needed to make sense of it—perhaps similar to Tolkien's elves fading as the age of men begins. He sees AI as part of an inevitable progression, where human intelligence gives way to something greater, but argues that this transition must be handled with care. The stories we tell about AI will shape whether we resist, collaborate, or simply fade into irrelevance in the face of machine intelligence.
Minds Almost Meeting: Season 10, Episode 8.View the transcript for this episode here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com/episodes/on-wokeImagine two smart curious friendly and basically truth-seeking people, but from very different intellectual traditions. Traditions with different tools, priorities, and ground rules. What would they discuss? Would they talk past each other? Make any progress? Would anyone want to hear them? Economist Robin Hanson and philosopher Agnes Callard decided to find out.Visit the Minds Almost Meeting website here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com
Minds Almost Meeting: Season 10, Episode 7.View the transcript for this episode here:https://mindsalmostmeeting.com/episodes/two-cultures-againImagine two smart curious friendly and basically truth-seeking people, but from very different intellectual traditions. Traditions with different tools, priorities, and ground rules. What would they discuss? Would they talk past each other? Make any progress? Would anyone want to hear them? Economist Robin Hanson and philosopher Agnes Callard decided to find out.Visit the Minds Almost Meeting website here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com
A flood of government regulations, mandates, and subsidies has not solved the United States' health care problems—they are the problem. They have driven the average employer-plan family premium to nearly $26,000—and then tossed families out of their health insurance when employees leave their jobs. Even as Obamacare creates an insurance shortage, it has nevertheless grown so unaffordable that enrollees earning $200,000 per year get $12,000 in subsidies. Growing federal debt threatens Medicare and Medicaid patients' access to necessary care.Reforms circulating on Capitol Hill are not up to the challenge. Some propose more regulations, mandates, and subsidies. Yet if that approach worked, it would have already. Even reforms that are directionally correct fall far short of what is necessary to restore individual rights and make health care more universal.At this two-panel forum, leading health policy scholars will offer meaningful and potentially bipartisan reforms that would bring relief to struggling patients, workers, and taxpayers.The first panel, “Who's Afraid of Cutting Health Spending?” (9:00 a.m.–10:30 a.m.), will feature Michael Cannon, Robin Hanson, and Mark Miller. Panelists will discuss the many opportunities to eliminate excessive spending—opportunities that close observers of Medicare and Medicaid know about but the public does not. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Friends of the pod, the Cal Bears return, this time with a World Championship Bronze medalist and an NCAA Champion in Lucas Henveaux and Robin Hanson. Both elite freestylers with Olympic experience, Lucas and Robin share insights on the ‘24-'25 edition of Cal swimming that has seen 17-straight top 2 finishes at NCAAs, an unprecedented run of success. This year, the attention all seems to be on high profile hires and transfers at Texas and Indiana, and Cal is just fine with the attention being elsewhere. Will this be the year the streak ends? Or will Cal once again arrive in March and remind everyone they know how to get it done in championship meets? Only time will tell, but in the meantime, enjoy a wide ranging chat with Lucas and Robin including how high pole vaulter Mondo Duplantis can take the world record to who the greatest Belgian cyclist is and how swimming could adopt golf's handicapping system.
Minds Almost Meeting: Season 10, Episode 6. View the transcript for this episode here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com/episodes/open-socrates Imagine two smart curious friendly and basically truth-seeking people, but from very different intellectual traditions. Traditions with different tools, priorities, and ground rules. What would they discuss? Would they talk past each other? Make any progress? Would anyone want to hear them? Economist Robin Hanson and philosopher Agnes Callard decided to find out. Visit the Minds Almost Meeting website here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com
Minds Almost Meeting: Season 10, Episode 5. View the transcript for this episode here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com/episodes/perfection-vs-greatness Imagine two smart curious friendly and basically truth-seeking people, but from very different intellectual traditions. Traditions with different tools, priorities, and ground rules. What would they discuss? Would they talk past each other? Make any progress? Would anyone want to hear them? Economist Robin Hanson and philosopher Agnes Callard decided to find out. Visit the Minds Almost Meeting website here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com
Julian Gough sums up his career as follows: “I just sit in my room and write.” Well, I think being an acclaimed children's author, novelist, stage playwright, poet and top-ten Irish musician is a little more impressive than he's letting on… Oh, and I didn't even mention that he wrote the ending to the computer game Minecraft! His current project, The Egg and The Rock, puts all of this to shame. This book, which Julian is writing in public on Substack, seeks to do no less than redescribe the universe, arguing that is not some random, dead, purposeless sack of chemicals, but instead a living, evolving organism. Julian joins me to discuss why the arc of human evolution bends towards man-made black holes, the hidden catastrophe at the heart of materialist science, the strange life of subterranean ice aliens, and MUCH more! This was such an interesting conversation - I can't wait for you to hear it. For the full transcript, episode takeaways, and bucketloads of other goodies designed to make you go, “Hmm, that's interesting!”, check out our Substack. Important Links: Julian's Website The Egg and The Rock Julian's Twitter Show Notes: “I just sit in my room and write” Why write a book in public? Materialism & science's hidden catastrophe “The scientific method is in conflict with human nature” The faulty assumption at the heart of cosmology Big bangs, supermassive black holes & Darwinian evolution: A ~30 minute masterclass in cosmological natural selection “I'm predicting very, very large amounts of life in this universe” The strange life of subterranean ice aliens Could we spot man-made black holes? Bringing consciousness into physics Pulling back the curtain Julian as World Emperor MORE! Books & Articles Mentioned: The New Inquisition: Irrational Rationalism and the Citadel of Science; by Robert Anton Wilson Against Method: Outline of an Anarchistic Theory of Knowledge; by Paul Feyerabend What the Tortoise Said to Achilles; by Lewis Carroll The Life of the Cosmos; by Lee Smolin What Is Life? The Physical Aspect of the Living Cell; by Erwin Schrödinger Isis Unveiled: A Master-Key to the Mysteries of Ancient and Modern Science and Theology; by Helena Petrovna Blavatsky The Bhagavad Gita Did the Universe evolve?; by Lee Smolin The Great Filter - Are We Almost Past It?; by Robin Hanson
Minds Almost Meeting: Season 10, Episode 2. View the transcript for this episode here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com/episodes/fighting-vs-arguing Imagine two smart curious friendly and basically truth-seeking people, but from very different intellectual traditions. Traditions with different tools, priorities, and ground rules. What would they discuss? Would they talk past each other? Make any progress? Would anyone want to hear them? Economist Robin Hanson and philosopher Agnes Callard decided to find out. Visit the Minds Almost Meeting website here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com
This episode was originally published on our sister podcast, web3 with a16z. If you're excited about the next generation of the internet, check out the show: https://link.chtbl.com/hrr_h-XCWe've heard a lot about the premise and the promise of prediction markets for a long time, but they finally hit the main stage with the most recent election. So what worked (and didn't) this time? Are they really better than pollsters, is polling dead? So in this conversation, we tease apart the hype from the reality of prediction markets, from the recent election to market foundations... going more deeply into the how, why, and where these markets work. We also discuss the design challenges and opportunities (including implications for builders throughout). And we also cover other information aggregation mechanisms -- from peer prediction to others -- given that prediction markets are part of a broader category of information-elicitation and information-aggregation mechanisms. Where do domain experts, superforecasters, pollsters, and journalists come in (and out)? Where do (and don't) blockchain and crypto technologies come in -- and what specific features (decentralization, transparency, real-time, open source, etc.) matter most, and in what contexts? Finally, we discuss applications for prediction and decision markets -- things we could do right away to in the near-future to sci-fi -- touching on trends like futarchy, AI entering the market, DeSci, and more. Our special expert guests are Alex Taborrok, professor of economics at George Mason University and Chair in Economics at the Mercatus Center; and Scott Duke Kominers, research partner at a16z crypto, and professor at Harvard Business School -- both in conversation with Sonal Chokshi. As a reminder: None of the following should be taken as business, investment, legal, or tax advice; please see a16z.com/disclosures for more important information. Resources:(from links to research mentioned to more on the topics discussed)The Use of Knowledge in Society by Friedrich Hayek (American Economic Review, 1945)Everything is priced in by rsd99 (r/wallstreetbets, 2019)Idea Futures (aka prediction markets, information markets) by Robin Hanson (1996)Auctions: The Social Construction of Value by Charles SmithSocial value of public information by Stephen Morris and Hyun Song Shin (American Economic Review, December 2002)Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research by Anna Dreber, Thomas Pfeiffer, Johan Almenberg, Siri Isaksson, Brad Wilson, Yiling Chen, Brian Nosek, and Magnus Johannesson (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (November 2015)A solution to the single-question crowd wisdom problem by Dražen Prelec, Sebastian Seung, and John McCoy (Nature, January 2017)Targeting high ability entrepreneurs using community information: Mechanism design in the field by Reshmaan Hussam, Natalia Rigol, and Benjamin Roth (American Economic Review, March 2022)Information aggregation mechanisms: concept, design, and implementation for a sales forecasting problem by Charles Plott and Kay-Yut Chen, Hewlett Packard Laboratories (March 2002)If I had a million [on deciding to dump the CEO or not] by Robin Hanson (2008)Futarchy: Vote values, but bet beliefs by Robin Hanson (2013)From prediction markets to info finance by Vitalik Buterin (November 2024)Composability is innovation by Linda Xie (June 2021)Composability is to software as compounding interest is to finance by Chris Dixon (October 2021)resources & research on DAOs, a16z crypto Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://twitter.com/stephsmithioPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
This week we strapped on a Motorola pager and stole a briefcase off our dad in order to look businessy enough to chat to the Batman of the B2B world, LinkedIn legend and co-founder of Evidenza, Peter Weinberg. Peter Weinberg has effectively grabbed B2B marketing by the ankles and dragged it out of the dull and dreary hole into which it had buried its head. World famous for his time in charge of the game-changing B2B institute at LinkedIn – alongside his pal Jon Lombardo – Peter is now the extraordinary human brains behind AI powered research platform Evidenza, where he continues to be a champion for the kind of B2B that's never bland. ///// Follow Peter on LinkedIn Here's his website Here is Rory Sutherland Eurostar TED Talk Timestamps (02:37) - Quickfire Questions (03:34) - Peter's Career Path (06:36) - Transition to Advertising (11:22) - The B2B Institute at LinkedIn (15:50) - Pivotal Moments in B2B Marketing (17:37) - Contrarian Views in Marketing (19:05) - The Role of Synthetic Data (24:32) - Launching Evidenza (30:50) - Validating Synthetic Research (34:13) - Scepticism Towards AI in Marketing (40:15) - AI and Advertising Effectiveness (45:45) - Using AI for Strategic Planning Peter's Book Recommendations are: Diamond Age by Neal Stephenson How Brands Grow by Bryon Sharp Building Distinctive Brand Assets by Jenni Romaniuk How Not To Plan – Les Binet & Sarah Carter Antifragile by Nassim Taleb The Elephant In The Brain by Kevin Simler & Robin Hanson /////
with @atabarrok @skominers @smc90We've heard a lot about the premise and the promise of prediction markets for a long time, but they finally hit the main stage with the most recent election. So what worked (and didn't) this time? Are they better than pollsters, journalists, domain experts, superforecasters?So in this conversation, we tease apart the hype from the reality of prediction markets, from the recent election to market foundations... going more deeply into the how, why, and where these markets work. We also discuss the design challenges and opportunities, including implications for builders throughout. And we also cover other information aggregation mechanisms -- from peer prediction to others -- given that prediction markets are part of a broader category of information-elicitation and information-aggregation mechanisms.Where do (and don't) blockchain and crypto technologies come in -- and what specific features (decentralization, transparency, real-time, open source, etc.) matter most, and in what contexts? Finally, we discuss applications for prediction and decision markets -- things we could do right away to in the near-to distant future -- touching on everything from corporate decisions and scientific replication to trends like AI, DeSci, futarchy/ governance, and more?Our special expert guests are Alex Tabarrok, professor of economics at George Mason University and Chair in Economics at the Mercatus Center; and Scott Duke Kominers, research partner at a16z crypto, and professor at Harvard Business School -- both in conversation with Sonal Chokshi.RESOURCES(from links to research mentioned to more on the topics discussed)The Use of Knowledge in Society by Friedrich Hayek (American Economic Review, 1945)Everything is priced in by rsd99 (r/wallstreetbets, 2019)Idea Futures (aka prediction markets, information markets) by Robin Hanson (1996)Auctions: The Social Construction of Value by Charles SmithSocial value of public information by Stephen Morris and Hyun Song Shin (American Economic Review, December 2002)Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research by Anna Dreber, Thomas Pfeiffer, Johan Almenberg, Siri Isaksson, Brad Wilson, Yiling Chen, Brian Nosek, and Magnus Johannesson (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (November 2015)A solution to the single-question crowd wisdom problem by Dražen Prelec, Sebastian Seung, and John McCoy (Nature, January 2017)Targeting high ability entrepreneurs using community information: Mechanism design in the field by Reshmaan Hussam, Natalia Rigol, and Benjamin Roth (American Economic Review, March 2022)Information aggregation mechanisms: concept, design, and implementation for a sales forecasting problem by Charles Plott and Kay-Yut Chen, Hewlett Packard Laboratories (March 2002)If I had a million [on deciding to dump the CEO or not] by Robin Hanson (2008)Futarchy: Vote values, but bet beliefs by Robin Hanson (2013)From prediction markets to info finance by Vitalik Buterin (November 2024)Composability is innovation by Linda Xie (June 2021)Composability is to software as compounding interest is to finance by Chris Dixon (October 2021)resources & research on DAOs, a16z crypto
Minds Almost Meeting: Season 10, Episode 3. View the transcript for this episode here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com/episodes/activism Imagine two smart curious friendly and basically truth-seeking people, but from very different intellectual traditions. Traditions with different tools, priorities, and ground rules. What would they discuss? Would they talk past each other? Make any progress? Would anyone want to hear them? Economist Robin Hanson and philosopher Agnes Callard decided to find out. Visit the Minds Almost Meeting website here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com
Our societies, our norms, our values are all shaped by stories from the past. Devdutt Pattanaik joins Amit Varma in episode 404 of The Seen and the Unseen to discuss his life, our society and why we should take mythology seriously. Note: This is Part 1 of a 12-hour episode, being uploaded in two parts now because Spotify and YouTube don't allow uploads over 12 hours. So if you are on another podcast app, just play the full version if it is there! (FOR FULL LINKED SHOW NOTES, GO TO SEENUNSEEN.IN.) Also check out 1. Devdutt Pattanaik on Instagram, Twitter, LinkedIn, Wikipedia, YouTube, Amazon and his own website. 2. Myth = Mithya: Decoding Hindu Mythology -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 3. The Girl Who Chose -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 4. The Boys Who Fought -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 5. Ramayana Versus Mahabharata -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 6. My Gita -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 7. Bahubali: 63 Insights into Jainism -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 8. Sati Savitri -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 9. Business Sutra -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 10. Ahimsa: 100 Reflections on the Harappan Civilization -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 11. Olympus -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 12. Eden -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 13. East vs West -- The Myths That Mystify -- Devdutt Pattanaik's 2009 TED Talk. 14. Today My Mother Came Home -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 15. The Incredible Curiosities of Mukulika Banerjee — Episode 276 of The Seen and the Unseen. 16. The Life and Times of Mrinal Pande — Episode 263 of The Seen and the Unseen. 17. Sara Rai Inhales Literature — Episode 255 of The Seen and the Unseen. 18. The Life and Times of Shanta Gokhale — Episode 311 of The Seen and the Unseen. 19. Yuganta -- Irawati Karve. 20. Women in Indian History — Episode 144 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ira Mukhoty). 21. The Jewel in the Crown -- BBC TV series. 22. Heat and Dust -- James Ivory. 23. The Sexual Outlaw -- John Rechy. 24. Bombay Dost and Gay Bombay. 25. The Double ‘Thank You' Moment — John Stossel. 26. The Kama Sutra. 27. Liberty -- Isaiah Berlin. 28. Thought and Choice in Chess -- Adriaan de Groot. 29. The Seven Basic Plots -- Christopher Booker. 30. The Seven Basic Plots -- Episode 69 of Everything is Everything. 31. The Hero with a Thousand Faces -- Joseph Campbell. 32. The Big Questions -- Steven Landsburg. 33. 300 Ramayanas — AK Ramanujan. 33. The egg came before the chicken. 34. The Evolution of Cooperation — Robert Axelrod. 35. The Trees -- Philip Larkin. 36. Who We Are and How We Got Here — David Reich. 37. Early Indians — Tony Joseph. 38. Tony Joseph's episode on The Seen and the Unseen. 39. A Life in Indian Politics — Episode 149 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Jayaprakash Narayan). 40. The BJP Before Modi — Episode 202 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vinay Sitapati). 41. Jugalbandi -- Vinay Sitapati. 42. Perfect Days -- Wim Wenders. 43. The Loneliness of the Indian Woman — Episode 259 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shrayana Bhattacharya). 44. The Loneliness of the Indian Man — Episode 303 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Nikhil Taneja). 45. Mary Wollstonecraft and bell hooks. 46. If India Was Five Days Old -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 47. The Road to Freedom — Arthur C Brooks. 48. The Master and His Emissary -- Iain McGilchrist. 49. This Be The Verse — Philip Larkin. 50. Human -- Michael Gazzaniga. 51. The Elephant in the Brain — Kevin Simler and Robin Hanson. 52. The Blank Slate -- Steven Pinker. 53. Amitava Kumar Finds the Breath of Life — Episode 265 of The Seen and the Unseen. 54. Wanderers, Kings, Merchants — Peggy Mohan. 55. Understanding India Through Its Languages — Episode 232 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Peggy Mohan). 56. The Reformers -- Episode 28 of Everything is Everything. 57. The Golden Bough -- James Frazer. 58. Myth And Reality: Studies In The Formation Of Indian Culture -- DD Kosambi. 59. Srimad Bhagavatam -- Kamala Subramaniam. 60. Boris Vallejo on Instagram, Wikipedia and his own website. 61. The Last Temptation Of Christ -- Nikos Kazantzakis. 62. The Last Temptation Of Christ -- Martin Scorcese. 63. Jeff Bezos on The Lex Fridman Podcast. 64. The Poem of the Killing of Meghnad -- Michael Madhusudan Dutt. 65. Eichmann in Jerusalem: A Report on the Banality of Evil — Hannah Arendt. 66. The Crown -- Created by Peter Morgan. 67. Profit = Philanthropy — Amit Varma. 68. Imaginary Number — Vijay Seshadri. 69. The Buddha's Footprint -- Johan Elverskog. 70. A Prehistory of Hinduism -- Manu Devadevan. 71. The ‘Early Medieval' Origins of India -- Manu Devadevan. 72. Unmasking Buddhism -- Bernard Faure. 73. The Red Thread -- Bernard Faure. 74. The Power of Denial -- Bernard Faure. 75. The Thousand and One Lives of the Buddha -- Bernard Faure. 76. A Modern Look At Ancient Chinese Theory Of Language -- Chad Hansen. 77. Hermann Kulke, Umakant Mishra and Ganesh Devy on Amazon. 78. The Hours -- Michael Cunningham. 79. The Hours -- Stephen Daldry. 79. Ancestral Dravidian languages in Indus Civilization -- Bahata Ansumali Mukhopadhyay. 80. Myth -- Laurence Coupe. This episode is sponsored by Rang De, a platform that enables individuals to invest in farmers, rural entrepreneurs and artisans. Amit Varma and Ajay Shah have launched a new course called Life Lessons, which aims to be a launchpad towards learning essential life skills all of you need. For more details, and to sign up, click here. Amit and Ajay also bring out a weekly YouTube show, Everything is Everything. Have you watched it yet? You must! And have you read Amit's newsletter? Subscribe right away to The India Uncut Newsletter! It's free! Also check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. Episode art: ‘Tell' by Simahina.
Our societies, our norms, our values are all shaped by stories from the past. Devdutt Pattanaik joins Amit Varma in episode 404 of The Seen and the Unseen to discuss his life, our society and why we should take mythology seriously. Note: This is Part 2 of a 12-hour episode, being uploaded in two parts now because Spotify and YouTube don't allow uploads over 12 hours. So do listen to Part 1 first -- and if you are on another podcast app, just play the full version if it is there! (FOR FULL LINKED SHOW NOTES, GO TO SEENUNSEEN.IN.) Also check out 1. Devdutt Pattanaik on Instagram, Twitter, LinkedIn, Wikipedia, YouTube, Amazon and his own website. 2. Myth = Mithya: Decoding Hindu Mythology -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 3. The Girl Who Chose -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 4. The Boys Who Fought -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 5. Ramayana Versus Mahabharata -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 6. My Gita -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 7. Bahubali: 63 Insights into Jainism -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 8. Sati Savitri -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 9. Business Sutra -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 10. Ahimsa: 100 Reflections on the Harappan Civilization -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 11. Olympus -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 12. Eden -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 13. East vs West -- The Myths That Mystify -- Devdutt Pattanaik's 2009 TED Talk. 14. Today My Mother Came Home -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 15. The Incredible Curiosities of Mukulika Banerjee — Episode 276 of The Seen and the Unseen. 16. The Life and Times of Mrinal Pande — Episode 263 of The Seen and the Unseen. 17. Sara Rai Inhales Literature — Episode 255 of The Seen and the Unseen. 18. The Life and Times of Shanta Gokhale — Episode 311 of The Seen and the Unseen. 19. Yuganta -- Irawati Karve. 20. Women in Indian History — Episode 144 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ira Mukhoty). 21. The Jewel in the Crown -- BBC TV series. 22. Heat and Dust -- James Ivory. 23. The Sexual Outlaw -- John Rechy. 24. Bombay Dost and Gay Bombay. 25. The Double ‘Thank You' Moment — John Stossel. 26. The Kama Sutra. 27. Liberty -- Isaiah Berlin. 28. Thought and Choice in Chess -- Adriaan de Groot. 29. The Seven Basic Plots -- Christopher Booker. 30. The Seven Basic Plots -- Episode 69 of Everything is Everything. 31. The Hero with a Thousand Faces -- Joseph Campbell. 32. The Big Questions -- Steven Landsburg. 33. 300 Ramayanas — AK Ramanujan. 33. The egg came before the chicken. 34. The Evolution of Cooperation — Robert Axelrod. 35. The Trees -- Philip Larkin. 36. Who We Are and How We Got Here — David Reich. 37. Early Indians — Tony Joseph. 38. Tony Joseph's episode on The Seen and the Unseen. 39. A Life in Indian Politics — Episode 149 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Jayaprakash Narayan). 40. The BJP Before Modi — Episode 202 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vinay Sitapati). 41. Jugalbandi -- Vinay Sitapati. 42. Perfect Days -- Wim Wenders. 43. The Loneliness of the Indian Woman — Episode 259 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shrayana Bhattacharya). 44. The Loneliness of the Indian Man — Episode 303 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Nikhil Taneja). 45. Mary Wollstonecraft and bell hooks. 46. If India Was Five Days Old -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 47. The Road to Freedom — Arthur C Brooks. 48. The Master and His Emissary -- Iain McGilchrist. 49. This Be The Verse — Philip Larkin. 50. Human -- Michael Gazzaniga. 51. The Elephant in the Brain — Kevin Simler and Robin Hanson. 52. The Blank Slate -- Steven Pinker. 53. Amitava Kumar Finds the Breath of Life — Episode 265 of The Seen and the Unseen. 54. Wanderers, Kings, Merchants — Peggy Mohan. 55. Understanding India Through Its Languages — Episode 232 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Peggy Mohan). 56. The Reformers -- Episode 28 of Everything is Everything. 57. The Golden Bough -- James Frazer. 58. Myth And Reality: Studies In The Formation Of Indian Culture -- DD Kosambi. 59. Srimad Bhagavatam -- Kamala Subramaniam. 60. Boris Vallejo on Instagram, Wikipedia and his own website. 61. The Last Temptation Of Christ -- Nikos Kazantzakis. 62. The Last Temptation Of Christ -- Martin Scorcese. 63. Jeff Bezos on The Lex Fridman Podcast. 64. The Poem of the Killing of Meghnad -- Michael Madhusudan Dutt. 65. Eichmann in Jerusalem: A Report on the Banality of Evil — Hannah Arendt. 66. The Crown -- Created by Peter Morgan. 67. Profit = Philanthropy — Amit Varma. 68. Imaginary Number — Vijay Seshadri. 69. The Buddha's Footprint -- Johan Elverskog. 70. A Prehistory of Hinduism -- Manu Devadevan. 71. The ‘Early Medieval' Origins of India -- Manu Devadevan. 72. Unmasking Buddhism -- Bernard Faure. 73. The Red Thread -- Bernard Faure. 74. The Power of Denial -- Bernard Faure. 75. The Thousand and One Lives of the Buddha -- Bernard Faure. 76. A Modern Look At Ancient Chinese Theory Of Language -- Chad Hansen. 77. Hermann Kulke, Umakant Mishra and Ganesh Devy on Amazon. 78. The Hours -- Michael Cunningham. 79. The Hours -- Stephen Daldry. 79. Ancestral Dravidian languages in Indus Civilization -- Bahata Ansumali Mukhopadhyay. 80. Myth -- Laurence Coupe. This episode is sponsored by Rang De, a platform that enables individuals to invest in farmers, rural entrepreneurs and artisans. Amit Varma and Ajay Shah have launched a new course called Life Lessons, which aims to be a launchpad towards learning essential life skills all of you need. For more details, and to sign up, click here. Amit and Ajay also bring out a weekly YouTube show, Everything is Everything. Have you watched it yet? You must! And have you read Amit's newsletter? Subscribe right away to The India Uncut Newsletter! It's free! Also check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. Episode art: ‘Tell' by Simahina.
Our societies, our norms, our values are all shaped by stories from the past. Devdutt Pattanaik joins Amit Varma in episode 404 of The Seen and the Unseen to discuss his life, our society and why we should take mythology seriously. (FOR FULL LINKED SHOW NOTES, GO TO SEENUNSEEN.IN.) Also check out 1. Devdutt Pattanaik on Instagram, Twitter, LinkedIn, Wikipedia, YouTube, Amazon and his own website. 2. Myth = Mithya: Decoding Hindu Mythology -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 3. The Girl Who Chose -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 4. The Boys Who Fought -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 5. Ramayana Versus Mahabharata -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 6. My Gita -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 7. Bahubali: 63 Insights into Jainism -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 8. Sati Savitri -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 9. Business Sutra -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 10. Ahimsa: 100 Reflections on the Harappan Civilization -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 11. Olympus -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 12. Eden -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 13. East vs West -- The Myths That Mystify -- Devdutt Pattanaik's 2009 TED Talk. 14. Today My Mother Came Home -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 15. The Incredible Curiosities of Mukulika Banerjee — Episode 276 of The Seen and the Unseen. 16. The Life and Times of Mrinal Pande — Episode 263 of The Seen and the Unseen. 17. Sara Rai Inhales Literature — Episode 255 of The Seen and the Unseen. 18. The Life and Times of Shanta Gokhale — Episode 311 of The Seen and the Unseen. 19. Yuganta -- Irawati Karve. 20. Women in Indian History — Episode 144 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ira Mukhoty). 21. The Jewel in the Crown -- BBC TV series. 22. Heat and Dust -- James Ivory. 23. The Sexual Outlaw -- John Rechy. 24. Bombay Dost and Gay Bombay. 25. The Double ‘Thank You' Moment — John Stossel. 26. The Kama Sutra. 27. Liberty -- Isaiah Berlin. 28. Thought and Choice in Chess -- Adriaan de Groot. 29. The Seven Basic Plots -- Christopher Booker. 30. The Seven Basic Plots -- Episode 69 of Everything is Everything. 31. The Hero with a Thousand Faces -- Joseph Campbell. 32. The Big Questions -- Steven Landsburg. 33. 300 Ramayanas — AK Ramanujan. 33. The egg came before the chicken. 34. The Evolution of Cooperation — Robert Axelrod. 35. The Trees -- Philip Larkin. 36. Who We Are and How We Got Here — David Reich. 37. Early Indians — Tony Joseph. 38. Tony Joseph's episode on The Seen and the Unseen. 39. A Life in Indian Politics — Episode 149 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Jayaprakash Narayan). 40. The BJP Before Modi — Episode 202 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vinay Sitapati). 41. Jugalbandi -- Vinay Sitapati. 42. Perfect Days -- Wim Wenders. 43. The Loneliness of the Indian Woman — Episode 259 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shrayana Bhattacharya). 44. The Loneliness of the Indian Man — Episode 303 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Nikhil Taneja). 45. Mary Wollstonecraft and bell hooks. 46. If India Was Five Days Old -- Devdutt Pattanaik. 47. The Road to Freedom — Arthur C Brooks. 48. The Master and His Emissary -- Iain McGilchrist. 49. This Be The Verse — Philip Larkin. 50. Human -- Michael Gazzaniga. 51. The Elephant in the Brain — Kevin Simler and Robin Hanson. 52. The Blank Slate -- Steven Pinker. 53. Amitava Kumar Finds the Breath of Life — Episode 265 of The Seen and the Unseen. 54. Wanderers, Kings, Merchants — Peggy Mohan. 55. Understanding India Through Its Languages — Episode 232 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Peggy Mohan). 56. The Reformers -- Episode 28 of Everything is Everything. 57. The Golden Bough -- James Frazer. 58. Myth And Reality: Studies In The Formation Of Indian Culture -- DD Kosambi. 59. Srimad Bhagavatam -- Kamala Subramaniam. 60. Boris Vallejo on Instagram, Wikipedia and his own website. 61. The Last Temptation Of Christ -- Nikos Kazantzakis. 62. The Last Temptation Of Christ -- Martin Scorcese. 63. Jeff Bezos on The Lex Fridman Podcast. 64. The Poem of the Killing of Meghnad -- Michael Madhusudan Dutt. 65. Eichmann in Jerusalem: A Report on the Banality of Evil — Hannah Arendt. 66. The Crown -- Created by Peter Morgan. 67. Profit = Philanthropy — Amit Varma. 68. Imaginary Number — Vijay Seshadri. 69. The Buddha's Footprint -- Johan Elverskog. 70. A Prehistory of Hinduism -- Manu Devadevan. 71. The ‘Early Medieval' Origins of India -- Manu Devadevan. 72. Unmasking Buddhism -- Bernard Faure. 73. The Red Thread -- Bernard Faure. 74. The Power of Denial -- Bernard Faure. 75. The Thousand and One Lives of the Buddha -- Bernard Faure. 76. A Modern Look At Ancient Chinese Theory Of Language -- Chad Hansen. 77. Hermann Kulke, Umakant Mishra and Ganesh Devy on Amazon. 78. The Hours -- Michael Cunningham. 79. The Hours -- Stephen Daldry. 79. Ancestral Dravidian languages in Indus Civilization -- Bahata Ansumali Mukhopadhyay. 80. Myth -- Laurence Coupe. This episode is sponsored by Rang De, a platform that enables individuals to invest in farmers, rural entrepreneurs and artisans. Amit Varma and Ajay Shah have launched a new course called Life Lessons, which aims to be a launchpad towards learning essential life skills all of you need. For more details, and to sign up, click here. Amit and Ajay also bring out a weekly YouTube show, Everything is Everything. Have you watched it yet? You must! And have you read Amit's newsletter? Subscribe right away to The India Uncut Newsletter! It's free! Also check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. Episode art: ‘Story' by Simahina.
Minds Almost Meeting: Season 10, Episode 2. View the transcript for this episode here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com/episodes/potential-vs-achievement Imagine two smart curious friendly and basically truth-seeking people, but from very different intellectual traditions. Traditions with different tools, priorities, and ground rules. What would they discuss? Would they talk past each other? Make any progress? Would anyone want to hear them? Economist Robin Hanson and philosopher Agnes Callard decided to find out. Visit the Minds Almost Meeting website here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com
Freddie deBoer has a post on what he calls “the temporal Copernican principle.” He argues we shouldn't expect a singularity, apocalypse, or any other crazy event in our lifetimes. Discussing celebrity transhumanist Yuval Harari, he writes: What I want to say to people like Yuval Harari is this. The modern human species is about 250,000 years old, give or take 50,000 years depending on who you ask. Let's hope that it keeps going for awhile - we'll be conservative and say 50,000 more years of human life. So let's just throw out 300,000 years as the span of human existence, even though it could easily be 500,000 or a million or more. Harari's lifespan, if he's lucky, will probably top out at about 100 years. So: what are the odds that Harari's lifespan overlaps with the most important period in human history, as he believes, given those numbers? That it overlaps with a particularly important period of human history at all? Even if we take the conservative estimate for the length of human existence of 300,000 years, that means Harari's likely lifespan is only about .33% of the entirety of human existence. Isn't assuming that this .33% is somehow particularly special a very bad assumption, just from the basis of probability? And shouldn't we be even more skeptical given that our basic psychology gives us every reason to overestimate the importance of our own time? (I think there might be a math error here - 100 years out of 300,000 is 0.033%, not 0.33% - but this isn't my main objection.) He then condemns a wide range of people, including me, for failing to understand this: Some people who routinely violate the Temporal Copernican Principle include Harari, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Sam Altman, Francis Fukuyama, Elon Musk, Clay Shirky, Tyler Cowen, Matt Yglesias, Tom Friedman, Scott Alexander, every tech company CEO, Ray Kurzweil, Robin Hanson, and many many more. I think they should ask themselves how much of their understanding of the future ultimately stems from a deep-seated need to believe that their times are important because they think they themselves are important, or want to be. I deny misunderstanding this. Freddie is wrong. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/contra-deboer-on-temporal-copernicanism
In this episode of Upstream, Erik Torenberg is joined by economist and futurist Robin Hanson. They dissect the intricacies of human motives, the psychology of status, and the profound impact of self-deception on behavior. Robin shares his revolutionary ideas for reforming academia and his pioneering work on prediction markets and his thoughts on the future of innovation amidst falling fertility rates. —
Jim talks with Malcolm and Simone Collins about declining worldwide fertility rates and pronatalism. They discuss when fertility started declining, the pre-World-War-I fertility catastrophe, the countries entering fertility freefall, a population-based pyramid scheme, different cultural frameworks' resistances to fertility collapse, the urban monoculture, the rise of an anti-natalist mindset, preparing for a consistent economic decline, the UN's misleading statistic, the debt overhang, whether the downsides are overstated, why this is not a wealthy person problem, guillotines, how the urban monoculture affects the gene pool, equality vs removal of in-the-moment pain, oversensitivity to negative stimuli, causes of the current fertility collapse, declining sperm rates, endocrine disruptors, decrease in sex drive among gen alpha, forgetting of ancestral traditions, tradwives, raising kids as if they were retired billionaires, sumptuary laws as solutions to multipolar traps, fixing cultural norms over fixing real estate prices, valorizing austerity, the correlation between fertility crashes & embracing the Enlightenment, responses to the temptation of infinite pleasure whenever you want it, building pro-natalism as a cohesive movement, the religion of Techno-Puritanism, the Future Police Holiday, becoming gods through intergenerational martyrdom, taking the anti-mystic route, a positive correlation between consequentialism & fertility rates, cultivars, mystery cults vs theological evolution, and much more. Episode Transcript The Pragmatist's Guides to Life Based Camp (Podcast) JRS EP 213 - Robin Hanson on Declining Fertility Rates Pronatalist.org The Infant Development and Environment Study (TIDES) "Reclaiming Our Cognitive Sovereignty," by Jim Rutt Your Money or Your Life, by Joe Dominguez and Vicki Robin JRS EP 143 - John Vervaeke Part 1: Awakening from the Meaning Crisis The Rise of Christianity, by Rodney Stark Malcolm and Simone Collins are international pronatalist advocates and authors. They are co-writers of The Pragmatist's Guides to Life, a series on relationships, sexuality, governance, and crafting religion. They also co-host a podcast, Based Camp. Their core area of focus is on cultural evolution and predicting the future. Publicly they are generally known as "the elite couple breeding to save mankind."
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