Podcasts about kepler

17th-century German mathematician, astronomer and astrologer

  • 946PODCASTS
  • 1,785EPISODES
  • 44mAVG DURATION
  • 1DAILY NEW EPISODE
  • Oct 31, 2022LATEST
kepler

POPULARITY

20152016201720182019202020212022

Categories



Best podcasts about kepler

Show all podcasts related to kepler

Latest podcast episodes about kepler

Museum of the Bible - The Podcast

Historian of science Dr. Ted Davis unpacks legendary myths in the history of religion and science. An advisor to the Smithsonian and Museum of the Bible, Ted provides a sneak peek into our upcoming Science and Scripture exhibition along with insights on flat earth theory, the Medieval Church and science in the Middle Ages, Copernicus, the Scientific Revolution, Robert Boyle, Johannes Kepler, and much more.

To The Best Of Our Knowledge
Generation Witch

To The Best Of Our Knowledge

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 29, 2022 51:58 Very Popular


As a culture we've long been fascinated by witchcraft, with witches through the ages practicing magic and making spells. Even through the spread of misinformation, and when they've been hunted and silenced. We take you from the 17th century to the online witch communities of today. Original Air Date: October 30, 2021 Guests: Honey Rose — Rivka Galchen — Chris Gosden — Quan Barry Interviews In This Hour: WitchTok, the super-connected coven — Are you now, or have you ever been, a witch? The witch hunt of Kepler's mother — From alchemy to internet witchcraft — the thousand-year history of magic — Spellcraft, field hockey and Emilio Estevez — the girl power of novelist Quan Barry's teen witches Never want to miss an episode? Subscribe to the podcast. Want to hear more from us, including extended interviews and favorites from the archive? Subscribe to our newsletter.

Innovation Now
A Universe of Monsters

Innovation Now

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 27, 2022


These exoplanets could be perfect homes for some of our most terrifying Halloween monsters.

I Got A Lot To Say About That
What Do We Know About Witches?

I Got A Lot To Say About That

Play Episode Play 15 sec Highlight Listen Later Oct 26, 2022 57:50


This topic was inspired by our Lean In meeting this month led by the amazing Jenn!What Do We Know About Witches?Heather and Vanessa will tell you spooky stories of witches and the witch trials of yore. Grab a drink, a bowl of popcorn, and some fun sized candies as you cozy up to some Halloween Tales.  Are the ladies witches? Let's find out!Our Favorite "Witchy and Supernatural" Things:Heather's:Books by Alice Hoffman - Practical MagicBeing HumanVanessa's:The CraftThe WitchesPlease leave us a review and let us know what you love. Like, subscribe, and most of all, share this podcast with others! Things We Refer To In This Episode:Trish Scully - https://trishscully.com/A Feminist Perspective on the History of Women as Witches - https://soar.suny.edu/handle/20.500.12648/2749Kepler's Laws - https://www.britannica.com/science/Keplers-laws-of-planetary-motionKepler's 2nd Law - https://gfycat.com/discover/kepler's-2nd-law-gifsHow Kepler Invented Science Fiction and Defended His Mother in a Witchcraft Trial While Revolutionizing Our Understanding of the Universe - https://www.themarginalian.org/2019/12/26/katharina-kepler-witchcraft-dream/The astronomer and the witch – how Kepler saved his mother from the stake - https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/discussion/the-astronomer-and-the-witch-how-kepler-saved-his-mother-from-the-stakeLouise Huebner - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louise_HuebnerThe Old World Emporium - https://www.oldeworldemporium.com/Thank you to our supporters:Orange (I Got A Lot To Say About That Theme Song) Original music by Marcel Camargo and Leo CostaBoth are Grammy nominated artists, please check out their music here:http://www.marcelcamargo.com/385194ztbi4uegaj53ypbd2m0w98sg  https://www.instagram.com/marcelcamargomusic/https://www.instagram.com/leocosta1010/?hl=en Website Sponsored by Alison Lindemann at WSI Internet Consulting - Digital Marketing Services (https://www.wsiworld.com/alison-lindemann)Support the showSupport the show

Stock Pickers
Por Que Invisto Em... Kepler Weber, com Rafael Maisonnave, Portfolio Manager da Tarpon Capital

Stock Pickers

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 24, 2022 29:24


Lucas Collazo, especialista em alocação e fundos entrevista Rafael Maisonnave, Portfolio Manager da Tarpon Capital, para falar de Kepler Weber (KEPL3).

Locked On Twins - Daily Podcast On The Minnesota Twins
Who Would Max Kepler Bring Back in a Trade?

Locked On Twins - Daily Podcast On The Minnesota Twins

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 20, 2022 27:42


Max Kepler is one of the longest-tenured Minnesota Twins, playing 837 games and logging over 3,000 plate appearances with the club. Kepler has one more year left on his contract with an option for 2024. With young outfielders on the rise and Kepler's offense declining, it's probably time for the Twins to deal him. Who would he bring back in a trade? Is Kepler viewed as a net positive with his contract and production? Let's break it all down! Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! Built Bar Built Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON15,” and you'll get 15% off your next order. BetOnline BetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts! SimpliSafe With Fast Protect™️ Technology, exclusively from SimpliSafe, 24/7 monitoring agents capture evidence to accurately verify a threat for faster police response. There's No Safe Like SimpliSafe. Visit SimpliSafe.com/LockedOnMLB to learn more. Rhone The Commuter Shirt can get you through any work day and straight into whatever comes next. Head to rhone.com/LOCKEDON and use promo code LOCKEDON to save 20% off your entire order. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Astro arXiv | astro-ph.EP
TOI-1136 is a Young, Coplanar, Aligned Planetary System in a Pristine Resonant Chain

Astro arXiv | astro-ph.EP

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 18, 2022 1:17


TOI-1136 is a Young, Coplanar, Aligned Planetary System in a Pristine Resonant Chain by Fei Dai et al. on Tuesday 18 October Convergent disk migration has long been suspected to be responsible for forming planetary systems with a chain of mean-motion resonances (MMR). Dynamical evolution over time could disrupt the delicate resonant configuration. We present TOI-1136, a 700-Myr-old G star hosting at least 6 transiting planets between $sim$2 and 5 $R_oplus$. The orbital period ratios deviate from exact commensurability by only $10^{-4}$, smaller than the $sim$,$10^{-2}$ deviations seen in typical Kepler near-resonant systems. A transit-timing analysis measured the masses of the planets (3-8$M_oplus$) and demonstrated that the planets in TOI-1136 are in true resonances with librating resonant angles. Based on a Rossiter-McLaughlin measurement of planet d, the star's rotation appears to be aligned with the planetary orbital planes. The well-aligned planetary system and the lack of detected binary companion together suggest that TOI-1136's resonant chain formed in an isolated, quiescent disk with no stellar fly-by, disk warp, or significant axial asymmetry. With period ratios near 3:2, 2:1, 3:2, 7:5, and 3:2, TOI-1136 is the first known resonant chain involving a second-order MMR (7:5) between two first-order MMR. The formation of the delicate 7:5 resonance places strong constraints on the system's migration history. Short-scale (starting from $sim$0.1 AU) Type-I migration with an inner disk edge is most consistent with the formation of TOI-1136. A low disk surface density ($Sigma_{rm 1AU}lesssim10^3$g~cm$^{-2}$; lower than the minimum-mass solar nebula) and the resultant slower migration rate likely facilitated the formation of the 7:5 second-order MMR. TOI-1136's deep resonance suggests that it has not undergone much resonant repulsion during its 700-Myr lifetime. One can rule out rapid tidal dissipation within a rocky planet b or obliquity tides within the largest planets d and f. arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/http://arxiv.org/abs/2210.09283v1

Astro arXiv | astro-ph.EP
TOI-1136 is a Young, Coplanar, Aligned Planetary System in a Pristine Resonant Chain

Astro arXiv | astro-ph.EP

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 18, 2022 1:15


TOI-1136 is a Young, Coplanar, Aligned Planetary System in a Pristine Resonant Chain by Fei Dai et al. on Tuesday 18 October Convergent disk migration has long been suspected to be responsible for forming planetary systems with a chain of mean-motion resonances (MMR). Dynamical evolution over time could disrupt the delicate resonant configuration. We present TOI-1136, a 700-Myr-old G star hosting at least 6 transiting planets between $sim$2 and 5 $R_oplus$. The orbital period ratios deviate from exact commensurability by only $10^{-4}$, smaller than the $sim$,$10^{-2}$ deviations seen in typical Kepler near-resonant systems. A transit-timing analysis measured the masses of the planets (3-8$M_oplus$) and demonstrated that the planets in TOI-1136 are in true resonances with librating resonant angles. Based on a Rossiter-McLaughlin measurement of planet d, the star's rotation appears to be aligned with the planetary orbital planes. The well-aligned planetary system and the lack of detected binary companion together suggest that TOI-1136's resonant chain formed in an isolated, quiescent disk with no stellar fly-by, disk warp, or significant axial asymmetry. With period ratios near 3:2, 2:1, 3:2, 7:5, and 3:2, TOI-1136 is the first known resonant chain involving a second-order MMR (7:5) between two first-order MMR. The formation of the delicate 7:5 resonance places strong constraints on the system's migration history. Short-scale (starting from $sim$0.1 AU) Type-I migration with an inner disk edge is most consistent with the formation of TOI-1136. A low disk surface density ($Sigma_{rm 1AU}lesssim10^3$g~cm$^{-2}$; lower than the minimum-mass solar nebula) and the resultant slower migration rate likely facilitated the formation of the 7:5 second-order MMR. TOI-1136's deep resonance suggests that it has not undergone much resonant repulsion during its 700-Myr lifetime. One can rule out rapid tidal dissipation within a rocky planet b or obliquity tides within the largest planets d and f. arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/http://arxiv.org/abs/2210.09283v1

Astro arXiv | all categories
TOI-1136 is a Young, Coplanar, Aligned Planetary System in a Pristine Resonant Chain

Astro arXiv | all categories

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 18, 2022 1:17


TOI-1136 is a Young, Coplanar, Aligned Planetary System in a Pristine Resonant Chain by Fei Dai et al. on Tuesday 18 October Convergent disk migration has long been suspected to be responsible for forming planetary systems with a chain of mean-motion resonances (MMR). Dynamical evolution over time could disrupt the delicate resonant configuration. We present TOI-1136, a 700-Myr-old G star hosting at least 6 transiting planets between $sim$2 and 5 $R_oplus$. The orbital period ratios deviate from exact commensurability by only $10^{-4}$, smaller than the $sim$,$10^{-2}$ deviations seen in typical Kepler near-resonant systems. A transit-timing analysis measured the masses of the planets (3-8$M_oplus$) and demonstrated that the planets in TOI-1136 are in true resonances with librating resonant angles. Based on a Rossiter-McLaughlin measurement of planet d, the star's rotation appears to be aligned with the planetary orbital planes. The well-aligned planetary system and the lack of detected binary companion together suggest that TOI-1136's resonant chain formed in an isolated, quiescent disk with no stellar fly-by, disk warp, or significant axial asymmetry. With period ratios near 3:2, 2:1, 3:2, 7:5, and 3:2, TOI-1136 is the first known resonant chain involving a second-order MMR (7:5) between two first-order MMR. The formation of the delicate 7:5 resonance places strong constraints on the system's migration history. Short-scale (starting from $sim$0.1 AU) Type-I migration with an inner disk edge is most consistent with the formation of TOI-1136. A low disk surface density ($Sigma_{rm 1AU}lesssim10^3$g~cm$^{-2}$; lower than the minimum-mass solar nebula) and the resultant slower migration rate likely facilitated the formation of the 7:5 second-order MMR. TOI-1136's deep resonance suggests that it has not undergone much resonant repulsion during its 700-Myr lifetime. One can rule out rapid tidal dissipation within a rocky planet b or obliquity tides within the largest planets d and f. arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/http://arxiv.org/abs/2210.09283v1

Astro arXiv | all categories
TOI-1136 is a Young, Coplanar, Aligned Planetary System in a Pristine Resonant Chain

Astro arXiv | all categories

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 18, 2022 1:15


TOI-1136 is a Young, Coplanar, Aligned Planetary System in a Pristine Resonant Chain by Fei Dai et al. on Tuesday 18 October Convergent disk migration has long been suspected to be responsible for forming planetary systems with a chain of mean-motion resonances (MMR). Dynamical evolution over time could disrupt the delicate resonant configuration. We present TOI-1136, a 700-Myr-old G star hosting at least 6 transiting planets between $sim$2 and 5 $R_oplus$. The orbital period ratios deviate from exact commensurability by only $10^{-4}$, smaller than the $sim$,$10^{-2}$ deviations seen in typical Kepler near-resonant systems. A transit-timing analysis measured the masses of the planets (3-8$M_oplus$) and demonstrated that the planets in TOI-1136 are in true resonances with librating resonant angles. Based on a Rossiter-McLaughlin measurement of planet d, the star's rotation appears to be aligned with the planetary orbital planes. The well-aligned planetary system and the lack of detected binary companion together suggest that TOI-1136's resonant chain formed in an isolated, quiescent disk with no stellar fly-by, disk warp, or significant axial asymmetry. With period ratios near 3:2, 2:1, 3:2, 7:5, and 3:2, TOI-1136 is the first known resonant chain involving a second-order MMR (7:5) between two first-order MMR. The formation of the delicate 7:5 resonance places strong constraints on the system's migration history. Short-scale (starting from $sim$0.1 AU) Type-I migration with an inner disk edge is most consistent with the formation of TOI-1136. A low disk surface density ($Sigma_{rm 1AU}lesssim10^3$g~cm$^{-2}$; lower than the minimum-mass solar nebula) and the resultant slower migration rate likely facilitated the formation of the 7:5 second-order MMR. TOI-1136's deep resonance suggests that it has not undergone much resonant repulsion during its 700-Myr lifetime. One can rule out rapid tidal dissipation within a rocky planet b or obliquity tides within the largest planets d and f. arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/http://arxiv.org/abs/2210.09283v1

Astro arXiv | all categories
Internal rotation and buoyancy travel time of 60 gamma Doradus stars from uninterrupted TESS light curves spanning 352 days

Astro arXiv | all categories

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 18, 2022 0:58


Internal rotation and buoyancy travel time of 60 gamma Doradus stars from uninterrupted TESS light curves spanning 352 days by Stefano Garcia et al. on Tuesday 18 October Context. Gamma Doradus (hereafter $gamma$~Dor) stars are gravity-mode pulsators whose periods carry information about the internal structure of the star. These periods are especially sensitive to the internal rotation and chemical mixing, two processes that are currently not well constrained in the theory of stellar evolution. Aims. We aim to identify the pulsation modes and deduce the internal rotation and buoyancy travel time for 106 $gamma$ Dor stars observed by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission in its southern continuous viewing zone (hereafter S-CVZ). We rely on 140 previously detected period-spacing patterns, that is, series of (near-)consecutive pulsation mode periods. Methods. We used the asymptotic expression to compute gravity-mode frequencies for ranges of the rotation rate and buoyancy travel time that cover the physical range in $gamma$~Dor stars. Those frequencies were fitted to the observed period-spacing patterns by minimising a custom cost function. The effects of rotation were evaluated using the traditional approximation of rotation, using the stellar pulsation code GYRE. Results. We obtained the pulsation mode identification, internal rotation and buoyancy travel time for 60 TESS $gamma$~Dor stars. For the remaining 46 targets, the detected patterns are either too short or contained too many missing modes for unambiguous mode identification, and longer light curves are required. For the successfully analysed stars, we found that period-spacing patterns from 1-yr long TESS light curves can constrain the internal rotation and buoyancy travel time to a precision of $rm 0.03~d^{-1}$ and 400s, respectively, which is about half as precise as literature results based on 4-yr Kepler light curves of $gamma$~Dor stars. arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/http://arxiv.org/abs/2210.09526v1

Astro arXiv | all categories
Constraints on Evolutionary Timescales for M Dwarf Planets from Dynamical Stability Arguments

Astro arXiv | all categories

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 17, 2022 1:03


Constraints on Evolutionary Timescales for M Dwarf Planets from Dynamical Stability Arguments by Katie Teixeira et al. on Monday 17 October The diversity of dynamical conditions among exoplanets is now well established. Yet, the relevance of orbital dynamical timescales to biological evolutionary timescales is poorly understood. Given that even minor orbital changes may place significant pressure on any organisms living on a planet, dynamical sculpting has important implications for the putative evolution of life. In this manuscript, we employ a Monte Carlo framework to investigate how a range of exoplanetary dynamical sculpting timescales affects timescales for biological evolution. We proceed with minimal assumptions for how dynamical sculpting proceeds and the emergence and persistence of life. We focus our investigation on M dwarf stars, the most common exoplanetary hosts in the Milky Way. We assign dynamical statuses, dependent on stellar age, to a suite of planetary systems, varying the rate of dynamical disruption within limits that are consistent with present-day planet demographics. We then simulate the observed yield of planets according to the completeness of NASA's Kepler and TESS missions, and investigate the properties of these samples. With this simplified approach, we find that systems hosting multiple transiting planets ought to have, on average, shorter dynamically-uninterrupted intervals than single-transiting systems. However, depending upon the rate of dynamical sculpting, planets orbiting older stars will exhibit the opposite trend. Even modest constraints on stellar age would help identify "older" stars for which this holds. The degree of these effects varies, dependent upon both the intrinsic dynamical demographics of exoplanets and whether we consider planets detected by NASA's Kepler or TESS missions. arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/http://arxiv.org/abs/2210.08018v1

Astro arXiv | all categories
A Catalog of Habitable Zone Exoplanets

Astro arXiv | all categories

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 17, 2022 0:27


A Catalog of Habitable Zone Exoplanets by Michelle L. Hill et al. on Monday 17 October The search for habitable planets has revealed many planets that can vary greatly from an Earth analog environment. These include highly eccentric orbits, giant planets, different bulk densities, relatively active stars, and evolved stars. This work catalogs all planets found to reside in the HZ and provides HZ boundaries, orbit characterization, and the potential for spectroscopic follow-up observations. Demographics of the HZ planets are compared with a full catalog of exoplanets. Extreme planets within the HZ are highlighted, and how their unique properties may affect their potential habitability. Kepler-296 f is the most eccentric

Astro arXiv | astro-ph.EP
Constraints on Evolutionary Timescales for M Dwarf Planets from Dynamical Stability Arguments

Astro arXiv | astro-ph.EP

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 17, 2022 1:03


Constraints on Evolutionary Timescales for M Dwarf Planets from Dynamical Stability Arguments by Katie Teixeira et al. on Monday 17 October The diversity of dynamical conditions among exoplanets is now well established. Yet, the relevance of orbital dynamical timescales to biological evolutionary timescales is poorly understood. Given that even minor orbital changes may place significant pressure on any organisms living on a planet, dynamical sculpting has important implications for the putative evolution of life. In this manuscript, we employ a Monte Carlo framework to investigate how a range of exoplanetary dynamical sculpting timescales affects timescales for biological evolution. We proceed with minimal assumptions for how dynamical sculpting proceeds and the emergence and persistence of life. We focus our investigation on M dwarf stars, the most common exoplanetary hosts in the Milky Way. We assign dynamical statuses, dependent on stellar age, to a suite of planetary systems, varying the rate of dynamical disruption within limits that are consistent with present-day planet demographics. We then simulate the observed yield of planets according to the completeness of NASA's Kepler and TESS missions, and investigate the properties of these samples. With this simplified approach, we find that systems hosting multiple transiting planets ought to have, on average, shorter dynamically-uninterrupted intervals than single-transiting systems. However, depending upon the rate of dynamical sculpting, planets orbiting older stars will exhibit the opposite trend. Even modest constraints on stellar age would help identify "older" stars for which this holds. The degree of these effects varies, dependent upon both the intrinsic dynamical demographics of exoplanets and whether we consider planets detected by NASA's Kepler or TESS missions. arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/http://arxiv.org/abs/2210.08018v1

Astro arXiv | astro-ph.EP
A Catalog of Habitable Zone Exoplanets

Astro arXiv | astro-ph.EP

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 17, 2022 0:27


A Catalog of Habitable Zone Exoplanets by Michelle L. Hill et al. on Monday 17 October The search for habitable planets has revealed many planets that can vary greatly from an Earth analog environment. These include highly eccentric orbits, giant planets, different bulk densities, relatively active stars, and evolved stars. This work catalogs all planets found to reside in the HZ and provides HZ boundaries, orbit characterization, and the potential for spectroscopic follow-up observations. Demographics of the HZ planets are compared with a full catalog of exoplanets. Extreme planets within the HZ are highlighted, and how their unique properties may affect their potential habitability. Kepler-296 f is the most eccentric

Astro arXiv | all categories
The McDonald Accelerating Stars Survey MASS : Architecture of the Ancient Five-Planet Host System Kepler-444

Astro arXiv | all categories

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 16, 2022 1:09


The McDonald Accelerating Stars Survey MASS : Architecture of the Ancient Five-Planet Host System Kepler-444 by Zhoujian Zhang et al. on Sunday 16 October We present the latest and most precise characterization of the architecture for the ancient ($approx 11$ Gyr) Kepler-444 system, which is composed of a K0 primary star (Kepler-444 A) hosting five transiting planets, and a tight M-type spectroscopic binary (Kepler-444 BC) with an A-BC projected separation of 66 au. We have measured the system's relative astrometry using the adaptive optics imaging from Keck/NIRC2 and Kepler-444 A's radial velocities from the Hobby Eberly Telescope, and re-analyzed relative radial velocities between BC and A from Keck/HIRES. We also include the Hipparcos-Gaia astrometric acceleration and all published astrometry and radial velocities into an updated orbit analysis of BC's barycenter. These data greatly extend the time baseline of the monitoring and lead to significant updates to BC's barycentric orbit compared to previous work, including a larger semi-major axis ($a = 52.2^{+3.3}_{-2.7}$ au), a smaller eccentricity ($e = 0.55 pm 0.05$), and a more precise inclination ($i =85.4^{+0.3}_{-0.4}$ degrees). We have also derived the first dynamical masses of B and C components. Our results suggest Kepler-444~A's protoplanetary disk was likely truncated by BC to a radius of $approx 8$ au, which resolves the previously noticed tension between Kepler-444 A's disk mass and planet masses. Kepler-444 BC's barycentric orbit is likely aligned with those of A's five planets, which might be primordial or a consequence of dynamical evolution. The Kepler-444 system demonstrates that compact multi-planet systems residing in hierarchical stellar triples can form at early epochs of the Universe and survive their secular evolution throughout cosmic time. arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/http://arxiv.org/abs/2210.07252v1

Astro arXiv | astro-ph.EP
The McDonald Accelerating Stars Survey MASS : Architecture of the Ancient Five-Planet Host System Kepler-444

Astro arXiv | astro-ph.EP

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 16, 2022 1:09


The McDonald Accelerating Stars Survey MASS : Architecture of the Ancient Five-Planet Host System Kepler-444 by Zhoujian Zhang et al. on Sunday 16 October We present the latest and most precise characterization of the architecture for the ancient ($approx 11$ Gyr) Kepler-444 system, which is composed of a K0 primary star (Kepler-444 A) hosting five transiting planets, and a tight M-type spectroscopic binary (Kepler-444 BC) with an A-BC projected separation of 66 au. We have measured the system's relative astrometry using the adaptive optics imaging from Keck/NIRC2 and Kepler-444 A's radial velocities from the Hobby Eberly Telescope, and re-analyzed relative radial velocities between BC and A from Keck/HIRES. We also include the Hipparcos-Gaia astrometric acceleration and all published astrometry and radial velocities into an updated orbit analysis of BC's barycenter. These data greatly extend the time baseline of the monitoring and lead to significant updates to BC's barycentric orbit compared to previous work, including a larger semi-major axis ($a = 52.2^{+3.3}_{-2.7}$ au), a smaller eccentricity ($e = 0.55 pm 0.05$), and a more precise inclination ($i =85.4^{+0.3}_{-0.4}$ degrees). We have also derived the first dynamical masses of B and C components. Our results suggest Kepler-444~A's protoplanetary disk was likely truncated by BC to a radius of $approx 8$ au, which resolves the previously noticed tension between Kepler-444 A's disk mass and planet masses. Kepler-444 BC's barycentric orbit is likely aligned with those of A's five planets, which might be primordial or a consequence of dynamical evolution. The Kepler-444 system demonstrates that compact multi-planet systems residing in hierarchical stellar triples can form at early epochs of the Universe and survive their secular evolution throughout cosmic time. arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/http://arxiv.org/abs/2210.07252v1

Poupecast - Me Poupe
5 milhoes de reais para empreendedores ESG: Nossa turnê pelo nordeste tá chegando!

Poupecast - Me Poupe

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 14, 2022 38:19


Esse é um chamado para acelerar a sua startup.  Se você conhece de perto os problemas do Norte e Nordeste do Brasil, ouça esse episódio e saiba como participar da turnê mais milionária de todos os tempos.  Esse programa foi transmitido na programação da 89 em 10/10.   Não esquece de seguir o PoupeCast  e compartilhar com todo mundo que você quer que enriqueça em 2022!    ----   Apresentação e roteiro -  Nathalia Arcuri (@nathaliaarcuri) Convidado - João Kepler (@joaokepler) Time Me Poupe! 89 - Cadu Previero e Yuri Danka

Astro arXiv | all categories
Bridging the gap -- the disappearance of the intermediate period gap for fully convective stars, uncovered by new ZTF rotation periods

Astro arXiv | all categories

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 13, 2022 0:36


Bridging the gap -- the disappearance of the intermediate period gap for fully convective stars, uncovered by new ZTF rotation periods by Yuxi Lu et al. on Thursday 13 October The intermediate period gap, discovered by Kepler, is an observed dearth of stellar rotation periods in the temperature-period diagram at $sim$ 20 days for G dwarfs and up to $sim$ 30 days for early-M dwarfs. However, because Kepler mainly targeted solar-like stars, there is a lack of measured periods for M dwarfs, especially those at the fully convective limit. Therefore it is unclear if the intermediate period gap exists for mid- to late-M dwarfs. Here, we present a period catalog containing 40,553 rotation periods (9,535 periods $>$ 10 days), measured using the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF). To measure these periods, we developed a simple pipeline that improves directly on the ZTF archival light curves and reduces the photometric scatter by 26%, on average. This new catalog spans a range of stellar temperatures that connect samples from Kepler with MEarth, a ground-based time domain survey of bright M-dwarfs, and reveals that the intermediate period gap closes at the theoretically predicted location of the fully convective boundary ($G_{rm BP} - G_{rm RP} sim 2.45$ mag). This result supports the hypothesis that the gap is caused by core-envelope interactions. Using gyro-kinematic ages, we also find a potential rapid spin-down of stars across this period gap. arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/http://arxiv.org/abs/2210.06604v1

Astro arXiv | all categories
The Exoplanet Radius Valley from Gas-driven Planet Migration and Breaking of Resonant Chains

Astro arXiv | all categories

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 12, 2022 1:03


The Exoplanet Radius Valley from Gas-driven Planet Migration and Breaking of Resonant Chains by Andre Izidoro et al. on Wednesday 12 October The size frequency distribution of exoplanet radii between 1 and 4$R_{oplus}$ is bimodal with peaks at $sim$1.4 $R_{oplus}$ and $sim$2.4 $R_{oplus}$, and a valley at $sim$1.8$R_{oplus}$. This radius valley separates two classes of planets -- usually referred to as "super-Earths" and "mini-Neptunes" -- and its origin remains debated. One model proposes that super-Earths are the outcome of photo-evaporation or core-powered mass-loss stripping the primordial atmospheres of the mini-Neptunes. A contrasting model interprets the radius valley as a dichotomy in the bulk compositions, where super-Earths are rocky planets and mini-Neptunes are water-ice rich worlds. In this work, we test whether the migration model is consistent with the radius valley and how it distinguishes these views. In the migration model, planets migrate towards the disk inner edge forming a chain of planets locked in resonant configurations. After the gas disk dispersal, orbital instabilities "break the chains" and promote late collisions. This model broadly matches the period-ratio and planet-multiplicity distributions of Kepler planets, and accounts for resonant chains such as TRAPPIST-1, Kepler-223, and TOI-178. Here, by combining the outcome of planet formation simulations with compositional mass-radius relationships, and assuming complete loss of primordial H-rich atmospheres in late giant-impacts, we show that the migration model accounts for the exoplanet radius valley and the intra-system uniformity ("peas-in-a-pod") of Kepler planets. Our results suggest that planets with sizes of $sim$1.4 $R_{oplus}$ are mostly rocky, whereas those with sizes of $sim$2.4 $R_{oplus}$ are mostly water-ice rich worlds. Our results do not support an exclusively rocky composition for the cores of mini-Neptunes. arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/http://arxiv.org/abs/2210.05595v1

Astro arXiv | astro-ph.EP
The Exoplanet Radius Valley from Gas-driven Planet Migration and Breaking of Resonant Chains

Astro arXiv | astro-ph.EP

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 12, 2022 1:03


The Exoplanet Radius Valley from Gas-driven Planet Migration and Breaking of Resonant Chains by Andre Izidoro et al. on Wednesday 12 October The size frequency distribution of exoplanet radii between 1 and 4$R_{oplus}$ is bimodal with peaks at $sim$1.4 $R_{oplus}$ and $sim$2.4 $R_{oplus}$, and a valley at $sim$1.8$R_{oplus}$. This radius valley separates two classes of planets -- usually referred to as "super-Earths" and "mini-Neptunes" -- and its origin remains debated. One model proposes that super-Earths are the outcome of photo-evaporation or core-powered mass-loss stripping the primordial atmospheres of the mini-Neptunes. A contrasting model interprets the radius valley as a dichotomy in the bulk compositions, where super-Earths are rocky planets and mini-Neptunes are water-ice rich worlds. In this work, we test whether the migration model is consistent with the radius valley and how it distinguishes these views. In the migration model, planets migrate towards the disk inner edge forming a chain of planets locked in resonant configurations. After the gas disk dispersal, orbital instabilities "break the chains" and promote late collisions. This model broadly matches the period-ratio and planet-multiplicity distributions of Kepler planets, and accounts for resonant chains such as TRAPPIST-1, Kepler-223, and TOI-178. Here, by combining the outcome of planet formation simulations with compositional mass-radius relationships, and assuming complete loss of primordial H-rich atmospheres in late giant-impacts, we show that the migration model accounts for the exoplanet radius valley and the intra-system uniformity ("peas-in-a-pod") of Kepler planets. Our results suggest that planets with sizes of $sim$1.4 $R_{oplus}$ are mostly rocky, whereas those with sizes of $sim$2.4 $R_{oplus}$ are mostly water-ice rich worlds. Our results do not support an exclusively rocky composition for the cores of mini-Neptunes. arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/http://arxiv.org/abs/2210.05595v1

Astro arXiv | astro-ph.EP
The Exoplanet Radius Valley from Gas-driven Planet Migration and Breaking of Resonant Chains

Astro arXiv | astro-ph.EP

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 12, 2022 1:04


The Exoplanet Radius Valley from Gas-driven Planet Migration and Breaking of Resonant Chains by Andre Izidoro et al. on Wednesday 12 October The size frequency distribution of exoplanet radii between 1 and 4$R_{oplus}$ is bimodal with peaks at $sim$1.4 $R_{oplus}$ and $sim$2.4 $R_{oplus}$, and a valley at $sim$1.8$R_{oplus}$. This radius valley separates two classes of planets -- usually referred to as "super-Earths" and "mini-Neptunes" -- and its origin remains debated. One model proposes that super-Earths are the outcome of photo-evaporation or core-powered mass-loss stripping the primordial atmospheres of the mini-Neptunes. A contrasting model interprets the radius valley as a dichotomy in the bulk compositions, where super-Earths are rocky planets and mini-Neptunes are water-ice rich worlds. In this work, we test whether the migration model is consistent with the radius valley and how it distinguishes these views. In the migration model, planets migrate towards the disk inner edge forming a chain of planets locked in resonant configurations. After the gas disk dispersal, orbital instabilities "break the chains" and promote late collisions. This model broadly matches the period-ratio and planet-multiplicity distributions of Kepler planets, and accounts for resonant chains such as TRAPPIST-1, Kepler-223, and TOI-178. Here, by combining the outcome of planet formation simulations with compositional mass-radius relationships, and assuming complete loss of primordial H-rich atmospheres in late giant-impacts, we show that the migration model accounts for the exoplanet radius valley and the intra-system uniformity ("peas-in-a-pod") of Kepler planets. Our results suggest that planets with sizes of $sim$1.4 $R_{oplus}$ are mostly rocky, whereas those with sizes of $sim$2.4 $R_{oplus}$ are mostly water-ice rich worlds. Our results do not support an exclusively rocky composition for the cores of mini-Neptunes. arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/http://arxiv.org/abs/2210.05595v1

Astro arXiv | all categories
The Exoplanet Radius Valley from Gas-driven Planet Migration and Breaking of Resonant Chains

Astro arXiv | all categories

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 12, 2022 1:04


The Exoplanet Radius Valley from Gas-driven Planet Migration and Breaking of Resonant Chains by Andre Izidoro et al. on Wednesday 12 October The size frequency distribution of exoplanet radii between 1 and 4$R_{oplus}$ is bimodal with peaks at $sim$1.4 $R_{oplus}$ and $sim$2.4 $R_{oplus}$, and a valley at $sim$1.8$R_{oplus}$. This radius valley separates two classes of planets -- usually referred to as "super-Earths" and "mini-Neptunes" -- and its origin remains debated. One model proposes that super-Earths are the outcome of photo-evaporation or core-powered mass-loss stripping the primordial atmospheres of the mini-Neptunes. A contrasting model interprets the radius valley as a dichotomy in the bulk compositions, where super-Earths are rocky planets and mini-Neptunes are water-ice rich worlds. In this work, we test whether the migration model is consistent with the radius valley and how it distinguishes these views. In the migration model, planets migrate towards the disk inner edge forming a chain of planets locked in resonant configurations. After the gas disk dispersal, orbital instabilities "break the chains" and promote late collisions. This model broadly matches the period-ratio and planet-multiplicity distributions of Kepler planets, and accounts for resonant chains such as TRAPPIST-1, Kepler-223, and TOI-178. Here, by combining the outcome of planet formation simulations with compositional mass-radius relationships, and assuming complete loss of primordial H-rich atmospheres in late giant-impacts, we show that the migration model accounts for the exoplanet radius valley and the intra-system uniformity ("peas-in-a-pod") of Kepler planets. Our results suggest that planets with sizes of $sim$1.4 $R_{oplus}$ are mostly rocky, whereas those with sizes of $sim$2.4 $R_{oplus}$ are mostly water-ice rich worlds. Our results do not support an exclusively rocky composition for the cores of mini-Neptunes. arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/http://arxiv.org/abs/2210.05595v1

StarTalk Radio
Cosmic Queries – Starquakes with Conny Aerts

StarTalk Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 11, 2022 51:22 Very Popular


What is a starquake? On this episode, Neil deGrasse Tyson and comic co-host Matt Kirshen explore asteroseismology, the sun, and what's happening on the insides of stars with astrophysicist Conny Aerts. NOTE: StarTalk+ Patrons can listen to this entire episode commercial-free.Thanks to our Patrons Zoran Nesic, Sarah Rina Rosen, and Joshua Brewer for supporting us this week.

Astro arXiv | all categories
KIC 7955301: a hierarchical triple system with eclipse timing variations and an oscillating red giant

Astro arXiv | all categories

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 11, 2022 0:41


KIC 7955301: a hierarchical triple system with eclipse timing variations and an oscillating red giant by P. Gaulme et al. on Tuesday 11 October KIC 7955301 is a hierarchical triple system with eclipse timing and depth variations discovered by the Kepler mission. It is composed of a non-eclipsing primary star at the bottom of the red giant branch on a 209-day orbit with a K/G-type main-sequence inner eclipsing binary, orbiting in 15.3 days. This system was noted for the large amplitude of its eclipse timing variations (4 hours), and the clear solar-like oscillations of the red-giant component, including p-modes of degree up to l=3 and mixed l=1 modes. The system is a single-lined spectroscopic triple. We perform a dynamical model by combining the Kepler photometric data, eclipse timing variations, and radial-velocity data obtained at Apache Point (ARCES) and Haute Provence (SOPHIE) observatories. The dynamical mass of the red-giant is determined with a 2% precision at 1.30 (+0.03,-0.02) solar mass. We perform asteroseismic modeling based on the global seismic parameters and on the individual frequencies. Both methods lead to a mass of the red giant that matches the dynamical mass within the uncertainties. Asteroseismology also reveals the rotation rate of the core (15 days), the envelope (150 days), and the inclination (75 deg) of the red giant. Three different approaches lead to an age between 3.3 and 5.8 Gyr, which highlights the difficulty of determining stellar ages despite the exceptional wealth of available information. On short timescales, the inner binary exhibits eclipses with varying depths during a 7.3-year long interval, and no eclipses during the consecutive 11.9 years. This is why Kepler could detect its eclipses, TESS will not, and the future ESA PLATO mission should. Over the long term, the system owes its evolution to the evolution of its individual components. It could end its current smooth evolution by merging by the end of the red giant or the asymptotic giant branch of the primary star. arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/http://arxiv.org/abs/2210.05312v1

Papo Com O Anjo
Edem Davanzzo no Papo com o Anjo

Papo Com O Anjo

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 11, 2022 30:40


Neste episódio, João Kepler entrevista Edem Davanzzo, um dos mais jovens empreendedores de destaque do mercado de comunicação no Brasil. Ele revela como revolucionou o mercado universitário brasileiro produzindo festas de formatura milionárias e conta como passou do direito à publicidade ao criar uma agência de comunicação em São Paulo para atender o mercado corporativo.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Strap on your Boots!
Episode 156: Future Tech: How to find habitable exoplanets in the universe

Strap on your Boots!

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 10, 2022 11:03


In today's episode I talk about how to find potentially habitable exoplanets in the universe. When looking for potentially habitable exoplanets, it helps to start with worlds similar to our own. But what does "similar" mean? Many Earth-sized rocky planets have been discovered: this suggests the possibility of life. Based on what we observe in our own solar system, it seems unlikely that a large gaseous world like Jupiter would provide habitable conditions. But most of these Earth-sized worlds orbit red dwarf stars. Earth-sized planets in wide orbits around Sun-like stars are harder to spot. We've discovered so many of them in the universe, after we thought Earth was the only potentially habitable planet. But after 2009, when the Kepler telescope launched into space, that spacecraft has been finding countless habitable, well, potentially habitable exoplanets.So tune in to find out how we find them!This episode is sponsored by the world's first productivity shot, Magic Mind. Pick some up at magicmind.co/boots and use my code BOOTS to get 20% off your order or 40% off your subscription within the next 10 days!

The 365 Days of Astronomy, the daily podcast of the International Year of Astronomy 2009
The Daily Space - Being A Star: Nature vs Nurture

The 365 Days of Astronomy, the daily podcast of the International Year of Astronomy 2009

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 6, 2022 21:54 Very Popular


Astroseismologists are combining data from TESS, Kepler, and eventually JWST to study stellar oscillations in ‘infant' stars, with the goal of creating new models for how such young stars form and evolve over time. Plus, JWST images Mars, Hubble images stars, and SpaceX manages to launch another Starlink mission in spite of weather delays.   We've added a new way to donate to 365 Days of Astronomy to support editing, hosting, and production costs.  Just visit: https://www.patreon.com/365DaysOfAstronomy and donate as much as you can! Share the podcast with your friends and send the Patreon link to them too!  Every bit helps! Thank you! ------------------------------------ Do go visit http://www.redbubble.com/people/CosmoQuestX/shop for cool Astronomy Cast and CosmoQuest t-shirts, coffee mugs and other awesomeness! http://cosmoquest.org/Donate This show is made possible through your donations.  Thank you! (Haven't donated? It's not too late! Just click!) ------------------------------------ The 365 Days of Astronomy Podcast is produced by the Planetary Science Institute. http://www.psi.edu Visit us on the web at 365DaysOfAstronomy.org or email us at info@365DaysOfAstronomy.org.

Obsesión por el Cielo
Obsesión por el Cielo: Punto Focal - #3

Obsesión por el Cielo

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 1, 2022 109:46


En este tercer programa de "Obsesión por el Cielo: Punto Focal" comentamos en general sobre los planetas extrasolares, su historia  y las formas que existen de detectarlos y caracterizarlos. En especial nos enfocamos en los telescopios espaciales que realizan las observaciones más precisas y que han descubierto la mayoría de los exoplanetas por el método del tránsito del exoplaneta frente a su estrella visto desde la Tierra. En particular comparamos las distintas estrategias de observación que se han desarrollado y que se planean, y detallamos las misiones y resultados de los telescopios espaciales Kepler y TESS, entre otros.  

The History of Computing
Taiwan, TSMC, NVIDIA, and Foundries

The History of Computing

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 30, 2022 31:03


Taiwan is a country about half the size of Maine with about 17 times the population of that state. Taiwan sits just over a hundred miles off the coast of mainland China. It's home to some 23 and a half million humans, roughly half way between Texas and Florida or a few more than live in Romania for the Europeans. Taiwan was connected to mainland China by a land bridge in the Late Pleistocene and human remains have been found dating back to 20,000 to 30,000 years ago. About half a million people on the island nation are aboriginal, or their ancestors are from there. But the population became more and more Chinese in recent centuries. Taiwan had not been part of China during the earlier dynastic ages but had been used by dynasties in exile to attack one another and so became a part of the Chinese empire in the 1600s. Taiwan was won by Japan in the late 1800s and held by the Japanese until World War II. During that time, a civil war had raged on the mainland of China with the Republic of China eventually formed as the replacement government for the Qing dynasty following a bloody period of turf battles by warlords and then civil war. Taiwan was in martial law from the time the pre-communist government of China retreated there during the exit of the Nationalists from mainland China in the 1940s to the late 1980. During that time, just like the exiled Han dynasty, they orchestrated war from afar. They stopped fighting, much like the Koreans, but have still never signed a peace treaty. And so large parts of the world remained in stalemate.  As the years became decades, Taiwan, or the Republic of China as they still call themselves, has always had an unsteady relationship with the People's Republic of China, or China as most in the US calls them. The Western world recognized the Republic of China and the Soviet and Chines countries recognized the mainland government. US President Richard Nixon visited mainland China in 1972 to re-open relations with the communist government there and relations slowly improved. The early 1970s was a time when much of the world still recognized the ruling government of Taiwan as the official Chinese government and there were proxy wars the two continued to fight. The Taiwanese and Chinese still aren't besties. There are deep scars and propaganda that keep relations from being repaired.  Before World War II, the Japanese also invaded Hong Kong. During the occupation there, Morris Chang's family became displaced and moved to a few cities during his teens before he moved Boston to go to Harvard and then MIT where he did everything to get his PhD except defend his thesis. He then went to work for Sylvania Semiconductor and then Texas Instruments, finally getting his PhD from Stanford in 1964. He became a Vice President at TI and helped build an early semiconductor designer and foundry relationship when TI designed a chip and IBM manufactured it. The Premier of Taiwan at the time, Sun Yun-suan, who played a central role in Taiwan's transformation from an agrarian economy to a large exporter. His biggest win was when to recruit Chang to move to Taiwan and found TSCM, or Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Some of this might sound familiar as it mirrors stories from companies like Samsung in South Korea. In short, Japanese imperialism, democracies versus communists, then rapid economic development as a massive manufacturing powerhouse in large part due to the fact that semiconductor designers were split from semiconductor foundry's or where chips are actually created.  In this case, a former Chinese national was recruited to return as founder and led TSMC for 31 years before he retired in 2018. Chang could see from his time with TI that more and more companies would design chips for their needs and outsource manufacturing. They worked with Texas Instruments, Intel, AMD, NXP, Marvell, MediaTek, ARM, and then the big success when they started to make the Apple chips. The company started down that path in 2011 with the A5 and A6 SoCs for iPhone and iPad on trial runs but picked up steam with the A8 and A9 through A14 and the Intel replacement for the Mac, the M1. They now sit on a half trillion US dollar market cap and are the largest in Taiwan. For perspective, their market cap only trails the GDP of the whole country by a few billion dollars.  Nvidia TSMC is also a foundry Nvidia uses. As of the time of this writing, Nvidia is the 8th largest semiconductor company in the world. We've already covered Broadcom, Qualcomm, Micron, Samsung, and Intel. Nvidia is a fabless semiconductor company and so design chips that vendors like TSMC manufacture.  Nvidia was founded by Jensen Huang, Chris Malachowsky, and Curtis Priem in 1993 in Santa Clara, California (although now incorporated in Delaware). Not all who leave the country they were born in due to war or during times of war return. Huang was born in Taiwan and his family moved to the US right around the time Nixon re-established relations with mainland China. Huang then went to grad school at Stanford before he became a CPU designer at AMD and a director at LSI Logic, so had experience as a do-er, a manager, and a manager's manager.  He was joined by Chris Malachowsky and Curtis Priem, who had designed the IBM Professional Graphics Adapter and then the GX graphics chip at Sun.   because they saw this Mac and Windows and Amiga OS graphical interface, they saw the games one could play on machines, and they thought the graphics cards would be the next wave of computing. And so for a long time, Nvidia managed to avoid competition with other chip makers with a focus on graphics. That initially meant gaming and higher end video production but has expanded into much more like parallel programming and even cryptocurrency mining.   They were more concerned about the next version of the idea or chip or company and used NV in the naming convention for their files. When it came time to name the company, they looked up words that started with those letters, which of course don't exist - so instead chose invidia or Nvidia for short, as it's latin for envy - what everyone who saw those sweet graphics the cards rendered would feel.  They raised $20 million in funding and got to work. First with SGS-Thomson Microelectronics in 1994 to manufacture what they were calling a graphical-user interface accelerator that they packaged on a single chip. They worked with Diamond Multimedia Systems to install the chips onto the boards. In 1995 they released NV1. The PCI card was sold as Diamond Edge 3D and came with a 2d/3d graphics core with quadratic texture mapping. Screaming fast and Virtual Fighter from Sega ported to the platform.  DirectX had come in 1995. So Nviia released DirectX drivers that supported Direct3D, the api that Microsoft developed to render 3d graphics. This was a time when 3d was on the rise for consoles and desktops. Nvidia timed it perfectly and reaped the rewards when they hit a million sold in the first four months for the RIVA, a 128-bit 3d processor that got used as an OEM in 1997. Then the 1998 RIVAZX with RIVATNT for multi-texture 3D processing. They also needed more manufacturing support at this point and entered into a strategic partnership with TSMC to manufacture their boards. A lot of vendors had a good amount of success in their niches. By the late 1990s there were companies who made memory, or the survivors of the DRAM industry after ongoing price dumping issues. There were companies that made central processors like Intel. Nvidia led the charge for a new type of chip, the GPU. They invented the GPU in 1999 when they released the GeForce 256. This was the first single-chip GPU processor. This means integrated lightings, triangle setups, rendering, like the old math coprocessor but for video. Millions of polygons could be drawn on screens every second. They also released the Quadro Pro GPU for professional graphics and went public in 1999 at an IPO of $12 per share.  Nvidia used some of the funds from the IPO to scale operations, organically and inorganically. In 2000 they released the GeForce2 Go for laptops and acquired 3dfx, closing deals to get their 3d chips in devices from OEM manufacturers who made PCs and in the new Microsoft Xbox. By 2001 they hit $1 billion in revenues and released the GeForce 3 with a programmable GPU, using APIs to make their GPU a platform. They also released the nForce integrated graphics and so by 2002 hit 100 million processors out on the market. They acquired MediaQ in 2003 and partnered with game designer Blizzard to make Warcraft. They continued their success in the console market when the GeForce platform was used in the PS 3 in 2005 and by 2006 had sold half a billion processors. They also added the  CUDA architecture that year to put a general purpose GPU on the market and acquired Hybrid Graphics who develops 2D and 3D embedded software for mobile devices. In 2008 they went beyond the consoles and PCs when Tesla used their GPUs in cars. They also acquired PortalPlayer, who supplies semiconductors and software for personal media players and launched the Tegra mobile processor to get into the exploding mobile market. More acquisitions in 2008 but a huge win when the GeForce 9400M was put into Apple MacBooks. Then more smaller chips in 2009 when the Tegra processors were used in Android devices. They also continued to expand how GPUs were used. They showed up in Ultrasounds and in 2010 the Audi. By then they had the Tianhe-1A ready to go, which showed up in supercomputers and the Optimus. All these types of devices that could use a GPU meant they hit a billion processors sold in 2011, which is when they went dual core with the Tegra 2 mobile processor and entered into cross licensing deals with Intel.  At this point TSMC was able to pack more and more transistors into smaller and smaller places. This was a big year for larger jobs on the platform. By 2012, Nvidia got the Kepler-based GPUs out by then and their chips were used in the Titan supercomputer. They also released a virtualized GPU GRID for cloud processing.  It wasn't all about large-scale computing efforts. The Tegra-3 and GTX 600 came out in 2012 as well. Then in 2013 the Tegra 4, a quad-core mobile processor, a 4G LTE mobile processor, Nvidia Shield for portable gaming, the GTX Titan, a grid appliance. In 2014 the Tegra K1 192, a shield tablet, and Maxwell. In 2015 came the TegraX1 with deep learning with 256 cores and Titan X and Jetson TX1 for smart machines, and the Nvidia Drive for autonomous vehicles. They continued that deep learning work with an appliance in 2016 with the DGX-1. The Drive got an update in the form of PX 2 for in-vehicle AI. By then, they were a 20 year old company and working on the 11th generation of the GPU and most CPU architectures had dedicated cores for machine learning options of various types.  2017 brought the Volta, Jetson TX2, and SHIELD was ported over to the Google Assistant. 2018 brought the Turing GPU architecture, the DGX-2, AGX Xavier, Clara, 2019 brought AGX Orin for robots and autonomous or semi-autonomous piloting of various types of vehicles. They also made the Jetson Nano and Xavier, and EGX for Edge Computing. At this point there were plenty of people who used the GPUs to mine hashes for various blockchains like with cryptocurrencies and the ARM had finally given Intel a run for their money with designs from the ARM alliance showing up in everything but a Windows device (so Apple and Android). So they tried to buy ARM from SoftBank in 2020. That deal fell through eventually but would have been an $8 billion windfall for Softbank since they paid $32 billion for ARM in 2016.  We probably don't need more consolidation in the CPU sector. Standardization, yes. Some of top NVIDIA competitors include Samsung, AMD, Intel Corporation Qualcomm and even companies like Apple who make their own CPUs (but not their own GPUs as of the time of this writing). In their niche they can still make well over $15 billion a year.  The invention of the MOSFET came from immigrants Mohamed Atalla, originally from Egypt, and Dawon Kahng, originally from from Seoul, South Korea. Kahng was born in Korea in 1931 but immigrated to the US in 1955 to get his PhD at THE Ohio State University and then went to work for Bell Labs, where he and Atalla invented the MOSFET, and where Kahng retired. The MOSFET was an important step on the way to a microchip.  That microchip market with companies like Fairchild Semiconductors, Intel, IBM, Control Data, and Digital Equipment saw a lot of chip designers who maybe had their chips knocked off, either legally in a clean room or illegally outside of a clean room. Some of those ended in legal action, some didn't. But the fact that factories overseas could reproduce chips were a huge part of the movement that came next, which was that companies started to think about whether they could just design chips and let someone else make them. That was in an era of increasing labor outsourcing, so factories could build cars offshore, and the foundry movement was born - or companies that just make chips for those who design them.  As we have covered in this section and many others, many of the people who work on these kinds of projects moved to the United States from foreign lands in search of a better life. That might have been to flee Europe or Asian theaters of Cold War jackassery or might have been a civil war like in Korea or Taiwan. They had contacts and were able to work with places to outsource too and given that these happened at the same time that Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan became safe and with no violence. And so the Four Asian Tigers economies exploded, fueled by exports and a rapid period of industrialization that began in the 1960s and continues through to today with companies like TSMC, a pure play foundry, or Samsung, a mixed foundry - aided by companies like Nvidia who continue to effectively outsource their manufacturing operations to companies in the areas. At least, while it's safe to do so.  We certainly hope the entire world becomes safe. But it currently is not. There are currently nearly a million Rohingya refugees fleeing war in Myanmar. Over 3.5 million have fled the violence in Ukraine. 6.7 million have fled Syria. 2.7 million have left Afghanistan. Over 3 million are displaced between Sudan and South Sudan. Over 900,000 have fled Somalia. Before Ukranian refugees fled to mostly Eastern European countries, they had mainly settled in Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, Pakistan, Uganda, Germany, Iran, and Ethiopia. Very few comparably settled in the 2 largest countries in the world: China, India, or the United States.  It took decades for the children of those who moved or sent their children abroad to a better life to be able to find a better life. But we hope that history teaches us to get there faster, for the benefit of all.

The Lunar Society
Tyler Cowen - Talent, Collapse, & Pessimism of Sex

The Lunar Society

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 28, 2022 94:39


It was my great pleasure to speak once again to Tyler Cowen. His most recent book is Talent, How to Find Energizers, Creatives, and Winners Across the World.We discuss:how sex is more pessimistic than he is,why he expects society to collapse permanently,why humility, stimulants, intelligence, & stimulants are overrated,how he identifies talent, deceit, & ambition,& much much much more!Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.More really cool guests coming up, subscribe to find out about future episodes!You may also enjoy my interviews of Bryan Caplan (about mental illness, discrimination, and poverty), David Deutsch (about AI and the problems with America's constitution), and Steve Hsu (about intelligence and embryo selection).If you end up enjoying this episode, I would be super grateful if you shared it. Post it on Twitter, send it to your friends & group-chats, and throw it up on any relevant subreddits & forums you follow. Can't exaggerate how much it helps a small podcast like mine.A huge thanks to Graham Bessellieu for editing this podcast and Mia Aiyana for producing its transcript.Timestamps(0:00) -Did Caplan Change On Education?(1:17) - Travel vs. History(3:10) - Do Institutions Become Left Wing Over Time?(6:02) - What Does Talent Correlate With?(13:00) - Humility, Mental Illness, Caffeine, and Suits(19:20) - How does Education affect Talent?(24:34) - Scouting Talent(33:39) - Money, Deceit, and Emergent Ventures(37:16) - Building Writing Stamina(39:41) - When Does Intelligence Start to Matter?(43:51) - Spotting Talent (Counter)signals(53:57) - Will Reading Cowen's Book Help You Win Emergent Ventures?(1:04:18) - Existential risks and the Longterm(1:12:45) - Cultivating Young Talent(1:16:05) - The Lifespans of Public Intellectuals(1:19:42) - Risk Aversion in Academia(1:26:20) - Is Stagnation Inevitable?(1:31:33) - What are Podcasts for?TranscriptDid Caplan Change On Education?Tyler Cowen   Ask Bryan about early and late Caplan. In which ways are they not consistent? That's a kind of friendly jab.Dwarkesh Patel   Okay, interesting. Tyler Cowen   Garrett Jones has tweeted about this in the past. In The Myth of the Rational Voter, education is so wonderful. It no longer seems to be true, but it was true from the data Bryan took from. Bryan doesn't think education really teaches you much. Dwarkesh Patel So then why is it making you want a free market?Tyler Cowen  It once did, even though it doesn't now, and if it doesn't now, it may teach them bad things. But it's teaching them something.Dwarkesh Patel   I have asked him this. He thinks that education doesn't teach them anything; therefore, that woke-ism can't be a result of colleges. I asked him, “okay, at some point, these were ideas in colleges, but now they're in the broader world. What do you think happened? Why did it transition together?” I don't think he had a good answer to that.Tyler Cowen   Yeah, you can put this in the podcast if you want. I like the free podcast talk often better than the podcast. [laughs]Dwarkesh Patel   Okay. Well yeah, we can just start rolling. Today, it is my great pleasure to speak to Tyler Cowen about his new book, “Talent, How to Find Energizers, Creatives, and Winners Across the World.” Tyler, welcome (once again) to The Lunar Society. Tyler Cowen   Happy to be here, thank you!Travel vs. HistoryDwarkesh Patel 1:51  Okay, excellent. I'll get into talent in just a second, but I've got a few questions for you first. So in terms of novelty and wonder, do you think travelling to the past would be a fundamentally different experience from travelling to different countries today? Or is it kind of in the same category?Tyler Cowen   You need to be protected against disease and have some access to the languages, and obviously, your smartphone is not going to work, right? So if you adjust for those differences, I think it would be a lot like travelling today except there'd be bigger surprises because no one else has gone to the past. Older people were there in a sense, but if you go back to ancient Athens, or the peak of the Roman Empire, you'd be the first traveller. Dwarkesh Patel   So do you think the experience of reading a history book is somewhat substitutable for actually travelling to a place? Tyler Cowen   Not at all! I think we understand the past very very poorly. If you've travelled appropriately in contemporary times, it should make you more skeptical about history because you'll realize how little you can learn about the current places just by reading about them. So it's like Travel versus History, and the historians lose.Dwarkesh Patel   Oh, interesting. So I'm curious, how does travelling a lot change your perspective when you read a work of history? In what ways does it do so? Are you skeptical of it to an extent that you weren't before, and what do you think historians are probably getting wrong? Tyler Cowen   It may not be a concrete way, but first you ask: was the person there? If it's a biography, did the author personally know the subject of the biography? That becomes an extremely important question. I was just in India for the sixth time, I hardly pretend to understand India, whatever that possibly might mean, but before I went at all, I'd read a few hundred books about India, and it's not like I got nothing out of them, but in some sense, I knew nothing about India. Now that I've visited, the other things I read make more sense, including the history.Do Institutions Become Left Wing Over Time?Dwarkesh Patel   Okay, interesting. So you've asked this question to many of your guests, and I don't think any of them have had a good answer. So let me just ask you: what do you think is the explanation behind Conquest's Second Law? Why does any institution that is not explicitly right-wing become left-wing over time?Tyler Cowen   Well, first of all, I'm not sure that Conquest's Second Law is true. So you have something like the World Bank which was sort of centrist state-ist in the 1960s, and by the 1990s became fairly neoliberal. Now, about what's left-wing/right-wing, it's global, it's complicated, but it's not a simple case of Conquest's Second Law holding. I do think that for a big part of the latter post-war era, some version of Conquest's Law does mostly hold for the United States. But once you see that it's not universal, you're just asking: well, why have parts? Why has the American intelligentsia shifted to the left? So that there's political science literature on educational polarization? [laughs] I wouldn't say it's a settled question, but it's not a huge mystery like “how Republicans act wackier than Democrats are” for example. The issues realign in particular ways. I believe that's why Conquest's Law locally is mostly holding.Dwarkesh Patel   Oh, interesting. So you don't think there's anything special about the intellectual life that tends to make people left-wing, and this issue is particular to our current moment?Tyler Cowen    I think by choosing the words “left-wing” you're begging the question. There's a lot of historical areas where what is left-wing is not even well defined, so in that sense, Conquests Law can't even hold there. I once had a debate with Marc Andreessen about this–– I think Mark tends to see things that are left-wing/right-wing as somewhat universal historical categories, and I very much do not. In medieval times, what's left wing and what's right wing? Even in 17th century England, there were particular groups who on particular issues were very left-wing or right-wing. It seems to me to be very unsatisfying, and there's a lot of fluidity in how these axes play out over real issues.Dwarkesh Patel   Interesting. So maybe then it's what is considered “left” at the time that tends to be the thing that ends up winning. At least, that's how it looks like looking back on it. That's how we categorize things. Something insightful I heard is that “if the left keeps winning, then just redefine what the left is.” So if you think of prohibition at the time, it was a left-wing cause, but now, the opposite of prohibition is left-wing because we just changed what the left is.Tyler Cowen    Exactly. Take the French Revolution: they're the historical equivalent of nonprofits versus 1830s restoration. Was everything moving to the left, between Robespierre and 1830? I don't pretend to know, but it just sure doesn't seem that way. So again, there seem to be a lot of cases where Conquest's Law is not so economical.Dwarkesh Patel   Napoleon is a great example of this where we're not sure whether he's the most left-wing figure in history or the most right-wing figure in history.Tyler Cowen 6:00Maybe he's both somehow.What Does Talent Correlate With?Dwarkesh Patel How much of talent or the lack thereof is a moral judgment for you? Just to give some context, when I think that somebody is not that intelligent, for me, that doesn't seem like a moral judgment. That just seems like a lottery. When I say that somebody's not hard working, that seems like more of a moral judgment. So on that spectrum, where would you say talent lies?Tyler Cowen   I don't know. My default is that most people aren't that ambitious. I'm fine with that. It actually creates some opportunities for the ambitious–– there might be an optimal degree of ambition. Well, short of everyone being sort of maximally ambitious. So I don't go around pissed off at unambitious people, judging them in some moralizing way. I think a lot of me is on autopilot when it comes to morally judging people from a distance. I don't wake up in the morning and get pissed off at someone in the Middle East doing whatever, even though I might think it was wrong.Dwarkesh Patel   So when you read the biographies of great people, often you see there's a bit of an emotional neglect and abuse when they're kids. Why do you think this is such a common trope?Tyler Cowen   I would love to see the data, but I'm not convinced that it's more common than with other people. Famous people, especially those who have biographies, on average are from earlier times, and in earlier times, children were treated worse. So it could be correlated without being causal. Now, maybe there's this notion that you need to have something to prove. Maybe you only feel you need to prove something if you're Napoleon and you're short, and you weren't always treated well. That's possible and I don't rule it out. But you look at Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg without pretending to know what their childhoods were like.  It sure sounds like they were upper middle class kids treated very well, at least from a distance. For example, the Collison's had great parents and they did well.Dwarkesh Patel   It could just be that the examples involving emotional neglect stuck out in my mind in particular.  Tyler Cowen   Yeah. So I'd really like to see the data. I think it's an important and very good question. It seems to me, maybe one could investigate it, but I've never seen an actual result.Dwarkesh Patel   Is there something you've learned about talent spotting through writing the book that you wish wasn't so? Maybe you found it disturbing, or you found it disappointing in some way. Is there something that is a correlate for talent that you wish wasn't? Tyler Cowen   I don't know. Again, I think I'm relatively accepting of a lot of these realities, but the thing that disappoints me a bit is how geographically clustered talent is. I don't mean where it was born, and I don't mean ethnically. I just mean where it ends up. So if you get an application, say from rural Italy where maybe living standards are perfectly fine–– there's good weather, there's olive oil, there's pasta. But the application just probably not that good. Certainly, Italians have had enough amazing achievements over the millennia, but right now, the people there who are actually up to something are going to move to London or New York or somewhere. So I find that a bit depressing. It's not really about the people. Dwarkesh Patel   When you do find a cluster of talent, to what extent can that be explained by a cyclical view of what's happening in the region? In the sense of the “hard times create strong men” theory? I mean at some point, Italy had a Renaissance, so maybe things got complacent over time.Tyler Cowen   Again, maybe that's true for Italy, but most of the talent clusters have been such for a long time, like London and New York. It's not cyclical. They've just had a ton of talent for a very long time. They still do, and later on, they still will. Maybe not literally forever, but it seems like an enduring effect.Dwarkesh Patel   But what if they leave? For example, the Central European Jews couldn't stay where they were anymore and had to leave.Tyler Cowen   Obviously, I think war can destroy almost anything. So German scientific talent took a big whack, German cultural talent too. I mean, Hungarian Jews and mathematics-–I don't know big of a trend it still is, but it's certainly nothing close to what it once was.Dwarkesh Patel   Okay. I was worried that if you realize that some particular region has a lot of talent right now, then that might be a one-time gain. You realize that India, Toronto or Nigeria or something have a lot of talent, but the culture doesn't persist in some sort of extended way. Tyler Cowen   That might be true for where talent comes from, but where it goes just seems to show more persistence. People will almost certainly be going to London for centuries. Is London producing a lot of talent? That's less clear. That may be much more cyclical. In the 17th century, London was amazing, right? London today? I would say I don't know. But it's not obvious that it's coming close to its previous glories. So the current status of India I think, will be temporary, but temporary for a long time. It's just a very big place. It has a lot of centres and there are things it has going for it like not taking prosperity for granted. But it will have all of these for quite a while–– India's still pretty poor.Dwarkesh Patel   What do you think is the difference between actual places where clusters of talent congregate and places where that are just a source of that talent? What makes a place a sink rather than a source of talent?Tyler Cowen   I think finding a place where people end up going is more or less obvious. You need money, you need a big city, you need some kind of common trade or linguistic connection. So New York and London are what they are for obvious reasons, right? Path dependence history, the story of making it in the Big Apple and so on. But origins and where people come from are areas that I think theory is very bad at understanding. Why did the Renaissance blossom in Florence and Venice, and not in Milan? If you're going back earlier, it wasn't obvious that it would be those places. I've done a lot of reading to try to figure this out, but I find that I've gotten remarkably not far on the question.Dwarkesh Patel   The particular examples you mentioned today–– like New York, San Francisco, London, these places today are kind of high stakes, because if you want to move there, it's expensive. Do you think that this is because they've been so talented despite this fact, or because you need some sort of exclusion in order to be a haven of talent?Tyler Cowen   Well, I think this is a problem for San Francisco. It may be a more temporary cluster than it ought to have been. Since it's a pretty recent cluster, it can't count on the same kind of historical path dependence that New York and Manhattan have. But a lot of New York still is not that expensive. Look at the people who work and live there! They're not all rich, to say the least. And that is an important part of why New York is still New York. With London, it's much harder, but it seems to me that London is a sink for somewhat established talent––which is fine, right? However, in that regard, it's much inferior to New York.Humility, Mental Illness, Caffeine, and Suits Dwarkesh Patel   Okay, I want to play a game of overrated and underrated with you, but we're going to do it with certain traits or certain kinds of personalities that might come in when you're interviewing people.Tyler Cowen   Okay, it's probably all going to be indeterminate, but go on.Dwarkesh Patel   Right. So somebody comes in, and they're very humble.Tyler Cowen   Immediately I'm suspicious. I figure most people who are going to make something of themselves are arrogant. If they're willing to show it, there's a certain bravery or openness in that. I don't rule out the humble person doing great. A lot of people who do great are humble, but I just get a wee bit like, “what's up with you? You're not really humble, are you?”Dwarkesh Patel   Maybe humility is a way of avoiding confrontation–– if you don't have the competence to actually show that you can be great. Tyler Cowen   It might be efficient for them to avoid confrontation, but I just start thinking that I don't know the real story. When I see a bit of arrogance, I'm less likely to think that it may, in a way, be feigned. But the feigning of arrogance in itself is a kind of arrogance. So in that sense, I'm still getting the genuine thing. Dwarkesh Patel   So what is the difference? Let's say a 15-year-old who is kind of arrogant versus a 50-year-old who is kind of arrogant, and the latter has accomplishments already while the first one doesn't. Is there a difference in how you perceive humility or the lack thereof?Tyler Cowen   Oh, sure. With the 50-year-old, you want to see what they have done, and you're much more likely to think the 50 year old should feign humility than the 15-year-old. Because that's the high-status thing to do–– it's to feign humility. If they can't do that, you figure, “Here's one thing they're bad at. What else are they bad at?” Whereas with the 15-year-old, maybe they have a chip on their shoulder and they can't quite hold it all in. Oh, that's great and fine. Let's see what you're gonna do.Dwarkesh Patel   How arrogant can you be? There are many 15 year olds who are really good at math, and they have ambitions like “I want to solve P ≠ NP” or “I want to build an AGI” or something. Is there some level where you just clearly don't understand what's going on since you think you can do something like that? Or is arrogance always a plus?Tyler Cowen   I haven't seen that level of arrogance yet. If a 15-year-old said to me, “in three years, I'm going to invent a perpetual motion machine,”  I would think “No, now you're just crazy.” But no one's ever said that to me. There's this famous Mark Zuckerberg story where he went into the VC meeting at Sequoia wearing his pajamas and he told Sequoia not to give him money. He was 18 at a minimum, that's pretty arrogant behavior and we should be fine with that. We know how the story ends. So it's really hard to be too arrogant. But once you say this, because of the second order effect, you start thinking: “Well, are they just being arrogant as an act?” And then in the “act sense”, yes, they can be too arrogant.Dwarkesh Patel   Isn't the backstory there that Mark was friends with Sean Parker and then Sean Parker had beef with Sequoia…Tyler Cowen   There's something like that. I wouldn't want to say off the top of my head exactly what, but there is a backstory.Dwarkesh Patel   Okay. Somebody comes in professionally dressed when they don't need to. They've got a crisp clean shirt. They've got a nice wash. Tyler Cowen How old are they?Dwarkesh Patel 20.Tyler Cowen They're too conformist. Again, with some jobs, conformity is great, but I get a little suspicious, at least for what I'm looking for. Though I wouldn't rule them out for a lot of things–– it's a plus, right?Dwarkesh Patel   Is there a point though, where you're in some way being conformist by dressing up in a polo shirt? Like if you're in San Francisco right now, it seems like the conformist thing is not to wear a suit to an interview if you're trying to be a software engineer.Tyler Cowen   Yeah, there might be situations where it's so weird, so over the top, so conformist, that it's actually totally non-conformist. Like “I don't know anyone who's a conformist like you are!” Maybe it's not being a conformist, or just being some kind of nut, that makes you interested again.Dwarkesh Patel   An overall sense that you get from the person that they're really content, almost like Buddha came in for an interview. A sense of wellbeing.Tyler Cowen   It's gonna depend on context, I don't think I'd hold it against someone, but I wouldn't take it at face value. You figure they're antsy in some way, you hope. You'll see it with more time, I would just think.Dwarkesh Patel   Somebody who uses a lot of nootropics. They're constantly using caffeine, but maybe on the side (multiple times a week), they're also using Adderall, Modafinil, and other kinds of nootropics.Tyler Cowen   I don't personally like it, but I've never seen evidence that it's negatively correlated with success, so I would try to put it out of my mind. I sort of personally get a queasy feeling like “Do you really know what you're doing. Is all this stuff good for you? Why do you need this?” That's my actual reaction, but again, at the intellectual level, it does seem to work for some people, or at least not screw them up too much.Dwarkesh Patel   You don't drink caffeine, correct? Tyler Cowen  Zero.Dwarkesh Patel Why?Tyler Cowen I don't like it. It might be bad for you. Dwarkesh Patel Oh really, you think so? Tyler Cowen People get addicted to it.Dwarkesh Patel    You're not worried it might make you less productive over the long term? It's more about you just don't want to be addicted to something?Tyler Cowen   Well, since I don't know it well, I'm not sure what my worries are. But the status quo regime seems to work. I observe a lot of people who end up addicted to coffee, coke, soda, stuff we know is bad for you. So I think: “What's the problem I need to solve? Why do it?”Dwarkesh Patel   What if they have a history of mental illness like depression or anxiety? Not that mental illnesses are good, but at the current margins, do you think that maybe they're punished too heavily? Or maybe that people don't take them seriously enough that they actually have a bigger signal than the people are considering?Tyler Cowen   I don't know. I mean, both could be true, right? So there's definitely positive correlations between that stuff and artistic creativity. Whether or not it's causal is harder to say, but it correlates. So you certainly should take the person seriously. But would they be the best Starbucks cashier? I don't know.How does Education Affect Talent?Dwarkesh Patel   Yeah. In another podcast, you've pointed out that some of the most talented people you see who are neglected are 15 to 17 year olds. How does this impact how you think? Let's say you were in charge of a high school, you're the principal of a high school, and you know that there's 2000 students there. A few of them have to be geniuses, right? How is the high school run by Tyler Cowen? Especially for the very smartest people there? Tyler Cowen   Less homework! I would work harder to hire better teachers, pay them more, and fire the bad ones if I'm allowed to do that. Those are no-brainers, but mainly less homework and I'd have more people come in who are potential role models. Someone like me! I was invited once to Flint Hill High School in Oakton, it's right nearby. I went in, I wasn't paid. I just figured “I'll do this.” It seems to me a lot of high schools don't even try. They could get a bunch of people to come in for free to just say “I'm an economist, here's what being an economist is like” for 45 minutes. Is that so much worse than the BS the teacher has to spew? Of course not. So I would just do more things like that.Dwarkesh Patel   I want to understand the difference between these three options. The first is: somebody like you actually gives an in-person lecture saying “this is what life is like”. The second is zoom, you could use zoom to do that. The third is that it's not live in any way whatsoever. You're just kind of like maybe showing a video of the person. Tyler Cowen   I'm a big believer in vividness. So Zoom is better than nothing. A lot of people are at a distance, but I think you'll get more and better responses by inviting local people to do it live. And there's plenty of local people, where most of the good schools are.Dwarkesh Patel   Are you tempted to just give these really smart 15-year-olds a hall pass to the library all day and some WiFi access, and then just leave them alone? Or do you think that they need some sort of structure?Tyler Cowen   I think they need some structure, but you have to let them rebel against it and do their own thing. Zero structure strikes me as great for a few of them, but even for the super talented ones, it's not perfect. They need exposure to things, and they need some teachers as role models. So you want them to have some structure.Dwarkesh Patel   If you read old books about education, there's a strong emphasis on moral instruction. Do you think that needs to be an important part of education? Tyler Cowen   I'd like to see more data. But I suspect the best moral instruction is the teachers actually being good people. I think that works. But again, I'd like to see the data. But somehow getting up and lecturing them about the seven virtues or something. That seems to me to be a waste of time, and maybe even counterproductive.Dwarkesh Patel   Now, the way I read your book about talent, it also seems like a critique of Bryan's book, The Case Against Education.Tyler Cowen   Ofcourse it is. Bryan describes me as the guy who's always torturing him, and in a sense, he's right.Dwarkesh Patel   Well, I guess more specifically, it seems that Bryan's book relies on the argument that you need a costly signal to show that you have talent, or you have intelligence, conscientiousness, and other traits. But if you can just learn that from a 1500 word essay and a zoom call, then maybe college is not about the signal.Tyler Cowen   In that sense, I'm not sure it's a good critique of Bryan. So for most people in the middle of the distribution, I don't think you can learn what I learned from Top 5 Emergent Ventures winners through an application and a half-hour zoom call. But that said, I think the talent book shows you my old saying: context is that which is scarce. And you're always testing people for their understanding of context. Most people need a fair amount of higher education to acquire that context, even if they don't remember the detailed content of their classes. So I think Bryan overlooks how much people actually learn when they go to school.Dwarkesh Patel   How would you go about measuring the amount of context of somebody who went to college? Is there something you can point to that says, “Oh, clearly they're getting some context, otherwise, they wouldn't be able to do this”?Tyler Cowen   I think if you meet enough people who didn't go to college, you'll see the difference, on average. Stressing the word average. Now there are papers measuring positive returns to higher education. I don't think they all show it's due to context, but I am persuaded by most of Brian's arguments that you don't remember the details of what you learned in class. Oh, you learn this about astronomy and Kepler's laws and opportunity costs, etc. but people can't reproduce that two or three years later. It seems pretty clear we know that. However, they do learn a lot of context and how to deal with different personality types.Dwarkesh Patel   Would you falsify this claim, though, that you are getting a lot of context? Is it just something that you had to qualitatively evaluate? What would have to be true in the world for you to conclude that the opposite is true? Tyler Cowen   Well, if you could show people remembered a lot of the facts they learned, and those facts were important for their jobs, neither of which I think is true. But in principle, they're demonstrable, then you would be much more skeptical about the context being the thing that mattered. But as it stands now, that's the residual. And it's probably what matters.Dwarkesh Patel   Right. So I thought that Bryan shared in the book that actually people don't even remember many of the basic facts that they learned in school.Tyler Cowen   Ofcourse they don't. But that's not the main thing they learn. They learn some vision of how the world works, how they fit into it, that they ought to have higher aspirations, that they can join the upper middle class, that they're supposed to have a particular kind of job. Here are the kinds of jerks you're going to meet along the way! Here's some sense of how dating markets work! Maybe you're in a fraternity, maybe you do a sport and so on. That's what you learned. Dwarkesh Patel   How did you spot Bryan?Tyler Cowen   He was in high school when I met him, and it was some kind of HS event. I think he made a point of seeking me out. And I immediately thought, “Well this guy is going to be something like, gotta keep track of this guy. Right away.”Dwarkesh Patel   Can you say more - what happened?Tyler Cowen   His level of enthusiasm, his ability to speak with respect to detail. He was just kind of bursting with everything. It was immediately evident, as it still is. Bryan has changed less than almost anyone else I know over what is now.. he could tell you how many years but it's been a whole bunch of decades.Dwarkesh Patel   Interesting. So if that's the case, then it would have been interesting to meet somebody who is like Bryan, but a 19 year old.Tyler Cowen   Yeah, and I did. I was right. Talent ScoutingDwarkesh Patel   To what extent do the best talent scouts inevitably suffer from Goodhart's Law? Has something like this happened to you where your approval gets turned into a credential? So a whole bunch of non-earnest people start applying, you get a whole bunch of adverse selection, and then it becomes hard for you to run your program.Tyler Cowen   It is not yet hard to run the program. If I needed to, I would just shut down applications. I've seen a modest uptick in bad applications, but it takes so little time to decide they're no good, or just not a good fit for us that it's not a problem. So the endorsement does get credentialized. Mostly, that's a good thing, right? Like you help the people you pick. And then you see what happens next and you keep on innovating as you need to.Dwarkesh Patel   You say in the book that the super talented are best at spotting other super talented individuals. And there aren't many of the super talented talent spotters to go around. So this sounds like you're saying that if you're not super talented, much of the book will maybe not do you a bunch of good. Results be weary should be maybe on the title. How much of talent spotting can be done by people who aren't themselves super talented?Tyler Cowen   Well, I'd want to see the context of what I wrote. But I'm well aware of the fact that in basketball, most of the greatest general managers were not great players. Someone like Jerry West, right? I'd say Pat Riley was not. So again, that's something you could study. But I don't generally think that the best talent scouts are themselves super talented.Dwarkesh Patel   Then what is the skill in particular that they have that if it's not the particular thing that they're working on?Tyler Cowen   Some intangible kind of intuition, where they feel the right thing in the people they meet. We try to teach people that intuition, the same way you might teach art or music appreciation. But it's not a science. It's not paint-by-numbers.Dwarkesh Patel   Even with all the advice in the book, and even with the stuff that isn't in the book that is just your inarticulable knowledge about how to spot talent, all your intuitions… How much of the variance in somebody's “True Potential” is just fundamentally unpredictable? If it's just like too chaotic of a thing to actually get your grips on. To what extent are we going to truly be able to spot talent?Tyler Cowen   I think it will always be an art. If you look at the success rates of VCs, it depends on what you count as the pool they're drawing from, but their overall rate of picking winners is not that impressive. And they're super high stakes. They're super smart. So I think it will mostly remain an art and not a science. People say, “Oh, genomics this, genomics that”. We'll see, but somehow I don't think that will change this.Dwarkesh Patel   You don't think getting a polygenic risk score of drive, for example, is going to be a thing that happens?Tyler Cowen   Maybe future genomics will be incredibly different from what we have now. Maybe. But it's not around the corner.Dwarkesh Patel   Yeah. Maybe the sample size is just so low and somebody is like “How are you even gonna collect that data? How are you gonna get the correlates of who the super talented people are?”Tyler Cowen   That, plus how genomic data interact with each other. You can apply machine learning and so on, but it just seems quite murky.Dwarkesh Patel   If the best people get spotted earlier, and you can tell who is a 10x engineer in a company and who is only a 1x engineer, or a 0.5x engineer, doesn't that mean that, in a way that inequality will get worse? Because now the 10x engineer knows that they're 10x, and everybody else knows that they're 10x, they're not going to be willing to cross subsidize and your other employees are going to be wanting to get paid proportionate to their skill.Tyler Cowen   Well, they might be paid more, but they'll also innovate more, right? So they'll create more benefits for people who are doing nothing. My intuition is that overall, inequality of wellbeing will go down. But you can't say that's true apriori. Inequality of income might also go up.Dwarkesh Patel   And then will the slack in the system go away for people who are not top performers? Like you can tell now, if we're getting better.Tyler Cowen   This has happened already in contemporary America. As I wrote, “Average is over.” Not due to super sophisticated talent spotting. Sometimes, it's simply the fact that in a lot of service sectors, you can measure output reasonably directly––like did you finish the computer program? Did it work? That has made it harder for people to get paid things they don't deserve.Dwarkesh Patel   I wonder if this leads to adverse selection in the areas where you can't measure how well somebody is doing. So the people who are kind of lazy and bums, they'll just go into places where output can't be measured. So these industries will just be overflowing with the people who don't want to work.Tyler Cowen   Absolutely. And then the people who are talented in the sectors, maybe they'll leave and start their own companies and earn through equity, and no one is really ever measuring their labor power. Still, what they're doing is working and they're making more from it.Dwarkesh Patel   If talent is partly heritable, then the better you get at spotting talent, over time, will the social mobility in society go down?Tyler Cowen   Depends how you measure social mobility. Is it relative to the previous generation? Most talent spotters don't know a lot about parents, like I don't know anything about your parents at all! The other aspect of spotting talent is hoping the talent you mobilize does great things for people not doing anything at all. That's the kind of automatic social mobility they get. But if you're measuring quintiles across generations, the intuition could go either way.Dwarkesh Patel   But this goes back to wondering whether this is a one time gain or not. Maybe initially they can help the people who are around them. Somebody in Brazil, they help people around them. But once you've found them, they're gonna go to those clusters you talked about, and they're gonna be helping the people with San Francisco who don't need help. So is this a one time game then?Tyler Cowen   Many people from India seem to give back to India in a very consistent way. People from Russia don't seem to do that. That may relate to the fact that Russia is in terrible shape, and India has a brighter future. So it will depend. But I certainly think there are ways of arranging things where people give back a lot.Dwarkesh Patel   Let's talk about Emergent Ventures. Sure. So I wonder: if the goal of Emergent Ventures is to raise aspirations, does that still work given the fact that you have to accept some people but reject other people? In Bayesian terms, the updates up have to equal the updates down? In some sense, you're almost transferring a vision edge from the excellent to the truly great. You see what I'm saying?Tyler Cowen   Well, you might discourage the people you turn away. But if they're really going to do something, they should take that as a challenge. And many do! Like “Oh, I was rejected by Harvard, I had to go to UChicago, but I decided, I'm going to show those b******s.” I think we talked about that a few minutes ago. So if I just crushed the spirits of those who are rejected, I don't feel too bad about that. They should probably be in some role anyway where they're just working for someone.Dwarkesh Patel   But let me ask you the converse of that which is, if you do accept somebody, are you worried that if one of the things that drives people is getting rejected, and then wanting to prove that you will reject them wrong, are you worried that by accepting somebody when they're 15, you're killing that thing? The part of them that wants to get some kind of approval?Tyler Cowen   Plenty of other people will still reject them right? Not everyone accepts them every step of the way. Maybe they're just awesome. LeBron James is basketball history and past a certain point, it just seems everyone wanted him for a bunch of decades now. I think deliberately with a lot of candidates, you shouldn't encourage them too much. I make a point of chewing out a lot of people just to light a fire under them, like “what you're doing. It's not gonna work.” So I'm all for that selectively.Dwarkesh Patel   Why do you think that so many of the people who have led Emergent Ventures are interested in Effective Altruism?Tyler Cowen   There is a moment right now for Effective Altruism, where it is the thing. Some of it is political polarization, the main parties are so stupid and offensive, those energies will go somewhere. Some of that in 1970 maybe went to libertarianism. Libertarianism has been out there for too long. It doesn't seem to address a lot of current problems, like climate change or pandemics very well. So where should the energy go? The Rationality community gets some of it and that's related to EA, as I'm sure you know. The tech startup community gets some of it. That's great! It seems to be working pretty well to me. Like I'm not an EA person. But maybe they deserve a lot of it.Dwarkesh Patel   But you don't think it's persistent. You think it comes and goes?Tyler Cowen   I think it will come and go. But I think EA will not vanish. Like libertarianism, it will continue for quite a long time.Dwarkesh Patel   Is there any movement that has attracted young people? That has been persistent over time? Or did they all fade? Tyler Cowen   Christianity. Judaism. Islam. They're pretty persistent. [laughs]Dwarkesh Patel   So to the extent that being more religious makes you more persistent, can we view the criticism of EA saying that it's kind of like a religion as a plus?Tyler Cowen   Ofcourse, yeah! I think it's somewhat like a religion. To me, that's a plus, we need more religions. I wish more of the religions we needed were just flat-out religions. But in the meantime, EA will do,Money, Deceit, and Emergent VenturesDwarkesh Patel   Are there times when somebody asks you for a grant and you view that as a negative signal? Let's say they're especially when well off: they're a former Google engineer, they wanna start a new project, and they're asking you for a grant. Do you worry that maybe they're too risk averse? Do you want them to put their own capital into it? Or do you think that maybe they were too conformist because they needed your approval before they went ahead?Tyler Cowen   Things like this have happened. And I asked people flat out, “Why do you want this grant from me?” And it is a forcing question in the sense that if their answer isn't good, I won't give it to them. Even though they might have a good level of talent, good ideas, whatever, they have to be able to answer that question in a credible way. Some can, some can't.Dwarkesh Patel   I remember that the President of the University of Chicago many years back said that if you rejected the entire class of freshmen that are coming in and accepted the next 1500 that they had to reject that year, then there'll be no difference in the quality of the admits.Tyler Cowen   I would think UChicago is the one school where that's not true. I agree that it's true for most schools.Dwarkesh Patel   Do you think that's also true of Emergent Ventures?Tyler Cowen   No. Not at all.Dwarkesh Patel   How good is a marginal reject?Tyler Cowen   Not good. It's a remarkably bimodal distribution as I perceive it, and maybe I'm wrong. But there aren't that many cases where I'm agonizing and if I'm agonizing I figure it probably should be a no.Dwarkesh Patel   I guess that makes it even tougher if you do get rejected. Because it wasn't like, “oh, you weren't a right fit for the job,” or “you almost made the cut.” It's like, “No, we're actually just assessing your potential and not some sort of fit for the job.” Not only were you just not on the edge of potential, but you were also way on the other edge of the curve.Tyler Cowen   But a lot of these rejected people and projects, I don't think they're spilling tears over it. Like you get an application. Someone's in Akron, Ohio, and they want to start a nonprofit dog shelter. They saw EV on the list of things you can apply to. They apply to a lot of things and maybe never get funding. It's like people who enter contests or something, they apply to EV. Nothing against non-profit dog shelters, but that's kind of a no, right? I genuinely don't know their response, but I don't think they walk away from the experience with some deeper model of what they should infer from the EV decision.Dwarkesh Patel   How much does the money part of Emergent Ventures matter? If you just didn't give them the money?Tyler Cowen   There's a whole bunch of proposals that really need the money for capital costs, and then it matters a lot. For a lot of them, the money per se doesn't matter.Dwarkesh Patel   Right, then. So what is the function of return for that? Do you like 10x the money, or do you add .1x the money for some of these things? Do you think they add up to seemingly different results? Tyler Cowen   I think a lot of foundations give out too many large grants and not enough small grants. I hope I'm at an optimum. But again, I don't have data to tell you. I do think about this a lot, and I think small grants are underrated.Dwarkesh Patel   Why are women often better at detecting deceit?Tyler Cowen   I would assume for biological and evolutionary reasons that there are all these men trying to deceive them, right? The cost of a pregnancy is higher for a woman than for a man on average, by quite a bit. So women will develop defense mechanisms that men maybe don't have as much.Dwarkesh Patel   One thing I heard from somebody I was brainstorming these questions with–– she just said that maybe it's because women just discuss personal matters more. And so therefore, they have a greater library.Tyler Cowen   Well, that's certainly true. But that's subordinate to my explanation, I'd say. There are definitely a lot of intermediate steps. Things women do more of that help them be insightful.Building Writing StaminaDwarkesh Patel   Why is writing skill so important to you?Tyler Cowen   Well, one thing is that I'm good at judging it. Across scales, I'm very bad at judging, so there's nothing on the EV application testing for your lacrosse skill. But look, writing is a form of thinking. And public intellectuals are one of the things I want to support. Some of the companies I admire are ones with writing cultures like Amazon or Stripe. So writing it is! I'm a good reader. So you're going to be asked to write.Dwarkesh Patel   Do you think it's a general fact that writing correlates with just general competence? Tyler Cowen   I do, but especially the areas that I'm funding. It's strongly related. Whether it's true for everything is harder to say.Dwarkesh Patel   Can stamina be increased?Tyler Cowen   Of course. It's one of the easier things to increase. I don't think you can become superhuman in your energy and stamina if you're not born that way. But I think almost everyone could increase by 30% to 50%, some notable amount. Dwarkesh Patel   Okay, that's interesting.Tyler Cowen   Put aside maybe people with disabilities or something but definitely when it comes to people in regular circumstances.Dwarkesh Patel   Okay. I think it's interesting because in the blog post from Robin Hanson about stamina, I think his point of view was that this is just something that's inherent to people.Tyler Cowen   Well, I don't think that's totally false. The people who have superhuman stamina are born that way. But there are plenty of origins. I mean, take physical stamina. You don't think people can train more and run for longer? Of course they can. It's totally proven. So it would be weird if this rule held for all these organs but not your brain. That seems quite implausible. Especially for someone like Robin, where your brain is just this other organ that you're gonna download or upload or goodness knows what with it. He's a physicalist if there ever was one.Dwarkesh Patel   Have you read Haruki Murakami's book on running?Tyler Cowen   No, I've been meaning to. I'm not sure how interesting I'll find it. I will someday. I like his stuff a lot.Dwarkesh Patel   But what I found really interesting about it was just how linked building physical stamina is for him to building up the stamina to write a lot.Tyler Cowen   Magnus Carlsen would say the same with chess. Being in reasonable physical shape is important for your mental stamina, which is another kind of simple proof that you can boost your mental stamina.When Does Intelligence Start to Matter?Dwarkesh Patel   After reading the book, I was inclined to think that intelligence matters more than I previously thought. Not less. You say in the book that intelligence has convex returns and that it matters especially for areas like inventors. Then you also say that if you look at some of the most important things in society, something like what Larry and Sergey did, they're basically inventors, right? So in many of the most important things in society, intelligence matters more because of the increasing returns. It seems like with Emergent Ventures, you're trying to pick the people who are at the tail. You're not looking for a barista at Starbucks. So it seems like you should care about intelligence more, given the evidence there. Tyler Cowen   More than who does? I feel what the book presents is, in fact, my view. So kind of by definition, I agree with that view. But yes, there's a way of reading it where intelligence really matters a lot. But it's only for a relatively small number of jobs.Dwarkesh Patel   Maybe you just started off with a really high priori on intelligence, and that's why you downgraded?Tyler Cowen   There are a lot of jobs that I actually hire for in actual life, where smarts are not the main thing I look for.Dwarkesh Patel   Does the convexity of returns on intelligence suggest that maybe the multiplicative model is wrong? Because if the multiplicative model is right, you would expect to see decreasing returns and putting your stats on one skill. You'd want to diversify more, right?Tyler Cowen   I think the convexity of returns to intelligence is embedded in a multiplicative model, where the IQ returns only cash out for people good at all these other things. For a lot of geniuses, they just can't get out of bed in the morning, and you're stuck, and you should write them off.Dwarkesh Patel   So you cite the data that Sweden collects from everybody that enters the military there. The CEOs are apparently not especially smart. But one thing I found interesting in that same data was that Swedish soccer players are pretty smart. The better a soccer player is, the smarter they are. You've interviewed professional basketball players turned public intellectuals on your podcast. They sound extremely smart to me. What is going on there? Why, anecdotally, and with some limited amounts of evidence, does it seem that professional athletes are smarter than you would expect?Tyler Cowen   I'm a big fan of the view that top-level athletic performance is super cognitively intense and that most top athletes are really extraordinarily smart. I don't just mean smart on the court (though, obviously that), but smart more broadly. This is underrated. I think Michelle Dawson was the one who talked me into this, but absolutely, I'm with you all the way.Dwarkesh Patel   Do you think this is just mutational load or––Tyler Cowen   You actually have to be really smart to figure out things like how to lead a team, how to improve yourself, how to practice, how to outsmart the opposition, all these other things. Maybe it's not the only way to get there, but it is very G loaded. You certainly see some super talented athletes who just go bust. Or they may destroy themselves with drugs: there are plenty of tales like that, and you don't have to look hard. Dwarkesh Patel   Are there other areas where you wouldn't expect it to be G loaded but it actually is?Tyler Cowen   Probably, but there's so many! I just don't know, but sports is something in my life I followed. So I definitely have opinions about it. They seem incredibly smart to me when they're interviewed. They're not always articulate, and they're sort of talking themselves into biased exposure. But I heard Michael Jordan in the 90s, and I thought, “That guy's really smart.” So I think he is! Look at Charles Barkley. He's amazing, right? There's hardly anyone I'd rather listen to, even about talent, than Charles Barkley. It's really interesting. He's not that tall, you can't say, “oh, he succeeded. Because he's seven foot two,” he was maybe six foot four tops. And they called him the Round Mound of Rebound. And how did he do that? He was smart. He figured out where the ball was going. The weaknesses of his opponents, he had to nudge them the right way, and so on. Brilliant guy.Dwarkesh Patel   What I find really remarkable is that (not just with athletes, but in many other professions), if you interview somebody who is at the top of that field, they come off really really smart! For example, YouTubers and even sex workers.Tyler Cowen   So whoever is like the top gardener, I expect I would be super impressed by them.Spotting Talent (Counter)signalsDwarkesh Patel   Right. Now all your books are in some way about talent, right? Let me read you the following passage from An Economist Gets Lunch, and I want you to tell me how we can apply this insight to talent. “At a fancy fancy restaurant, the menu is well thought out. The time and attention of the kitchen are scarce. An item won't be on the menu unless there's a good reason for its presence. If it sounds bad, it probably tastes especially good?”Tyler Cowen   That's counter-signaling, right? So anything that is very weird, they will keep on the menu because it has a devoted set of people who keep on ordering it and appreciate it. That's part of the talent of being a chef, you can come up with such things. Dwarkesh Patel   How do we apply this to talent? Tyler Cowen   Well, with restaurants, you have selection pressure where you're only going to ones that have cleared certain hurdles. So this is true for talent only for talents who are established. If you see a persistent NBA player who's a very poor free throw shooter like Shaquille O'Neal was, you can more or less assume they're really good at something else. But for people who are not established, there's not the same selection pressure so there's not an analogous inference you can draw.Dwarkesh Patel   So if I show up to an Emergent Ventures conference, and I meet somebody, and they don't seem especially impressive with the first impression, then I should believe their work is especially impressive. Tyler Cowen Yes, absolutely, yes. Dwarkesh Patel   Okay, so my understanding of your book Creative Destruction is that maybe on average, cultural diversity will go down. But in special niches, the diversity and ingenuity will go up. Can I apply the same insight to talent? Maybe two random college grads will have similar skill sets over time, but if you look at people on the tails, will their skills and knowledge become even more specialized and even more diverse?Tyler Cowen   There are a lot of different presuppositions in your question. So first, is cultural diversity going up or down? That I think is multi-dimensional. Say different cities in different countries will be more like each other over time.. that said, the genres they produce don't have to become more similar. They're more similar in the sense that you can get sushi in each one. But novel cuisine in Dhaka and Senegal might be taking a very different path from novel cuisine in Tokyo, Japan. So what happens with cultural diversity.. I think the most reliable generalization is that it tends to come out of larger units. Small groups and tribes and linguistic groups get absorbed. Those people don't stop being creative and other venues, but there are fewer unique isolated cultures, and much more thickly diverse urban creativity. That would be the main generalization I would put forward. So if you wanted to apply that generalization to talent, I think in a funny way, we come back to my earlier point: talent just tends to be geographically extremely well clustered. That's not the question you asked, but it's how I would reconfigure the pieces of it.Dwarkesh Patel   Interesting. What do you suggest about finding talent in a globalized world? In particular, if it's cheaper to find talent because of the internet, does that mean that you should be selecting more mediocre candidates?Tyler Cowen   I think it means you should be more bullish on immigrants from Africa. It's relatively hard to get out of Africa to the United States in most cases. That's a sign the person put in a lot of effort and ability. Maybe an easy country to come here from would be Canada, all other things equal. Again, I'd want this to be measured. The people who come from countries that are hard to come from like India, actually, the numbers are fairly high, but the roots are mostly pretty gated.Dwarkesh Patel   Is part of the reason that talent is hard to spot and find today that we have an aging population?  So then we would have more capital, more jobs, more mentorship available for young people coming up, than there are young people.Tyler Cowen   I don't think we're really into demographic decline yet. Not in the United States. Maybe in Japan, that would be true. But it seems to me, especially with the internet, there's more 15-year-old talent today than ever before, by a lot, not just by little. You see this in chess, right? Where we can measure performance very well. There's a lot more young talent from many different places, including the US. So, aging hasn't mattered yet. Maybe for a few places, but not here.Dwarkesh Patel   What do you think will change in talent spotting as society becomes older?Tyler Cowen   It depends on what you mean by society. I think the US, unless it totally screws up on immigration, will always have a very seriously good flow of young people that we don't ever have to enter the aging equilibrium the way Japan probably already has. So I don't know what will change. Then there's work from a distance, there's hiring from a distance, funding from a distance. As you know, there's EV India, and we do that at a distance. So I don't think we're ever going to enter that world..Dwarkesh Patel   But then what does it look like for Japan? Is part of the reason that Japanese cultures and companies are arranged the way they are and do the recruitment the way they do linked to their demographics? Tyler Cowen   That strikes me as a plausible reason. I don't think I know enough to say, but it wouldn't surprise me if that turned out to be the case.Dwarkesh Patel   To what extent do you need a sort of “great man ethos” in your culture in order to empower the top talent? Like if you have too much political and moral egalitarianism, you're not going to give great people the real incentive and drive to strive to be great.Tyler Cowen   You've got to say “great man or great woman ethos”, or some other all-purpose word we wish to use. I worry much less about woke ideology than a lot of people I know. It's not my thing, but it's something young people can rebel against. If that keeps you down, I'm not so impressed by you. I think it's fine. Let the woke reign, people can work around them.Dwarkesh Patel   But overall, if you have a culture or like Europe, do you think that has any impact on––Tyler Cowen   Europe has not woken up in a lot of ways, right? Europe is very chauvinist and conservative in the literal sense, and often quite old fashioned depending on what you're talking about. But Europe, I would say, is much less woke than the United States. I wouldn't say that's their main problem, but you can't say, “oh, they don't innovate because they're too woke”, like hang out with some 63 year old Danish guys and see how woke you think they are once everyone's had a few drinks.Dwarkesh Patel   My question wasn't about wokeism. I just meant in general, if you have an egalitarian society.Tyler Cowen   I think of Europe as less egalitarian. I think they have bad cultural norms for innovation. They're culturally so non-egalitarian. Again, it depends where but Paris would be the extreme. There, everyone is classified right? By status, and how you need to wear your sweater the right way, and this and that. Now, how innovative is Paris? Actually, maybe more than people think. But I still think they have too few dimensions of status competition. That's a general problem in most of Europe–– too few dimensions of status competition, not enough room for the proverbial village idiot.Dwarkesh Patel   Interesting. You say in the book, that questions tend to degrade over time if you don't replace them. I find it interesting that Y Combinator has kept the same questions since they were started in 2005. And of course, your co-author was a partner at Y Combinator. Do you think that works for Y Combinator or do you think they're probably making a mistake?Tyler Cowen   I genuinely don't know. There are people who will tell you that Y Combinator, while still successful, has become more like a scalable business school and less like attracting all the top weirdos who do amazing things. Again, I'd want to see data before asserting that myself, but you certainly hear it a lot. So it could be that Y Combinator is a bit stale. But still in a good sense. Like Harvard is stale, right? It dates from the 17th century. But it's still amazing. MIT is stale. Maybe Y Combinator has become more like those groups.Dwarkesh Patel   Do you think that will happen to Emergent Ventures eventually?Tyler Cowen   I don't think so because it has a number of unique features built in from the front. So a very small number of evaluators too. It might grow a little bit, but it's not going to grow that much. I'm not paid to do it, so that really limits how much it's going to scale. There's not a staff that has to be carried where you're captured by the staff, there is no staff. There's a bit of free riding on staff who do other things, but there's no sense of if the program goes away, all my buddies on staff get laid off. No. So it's kind of pop up, and low cost of exit. Whenever that time comes.Dwarkesh Patel   Do you personally have questions that you haven't put in the book or elsewhere because you want them to be fresh? For asking somebody who's applying to her for the grant? Tyler Cowen   Well, I didn't when we wrote the book. So we put everything in there that we were thinking of, but over time, we've developed more. I don't generally give them out during interviews, because you have to keep some stock. So yeah, there's been more since then, but we weren't holding back at the time.Dwarkesh Patel It's like a comedy routine. You gotta write a new one each year.Tyler Cowen That's right. But when your shows are on the air, you do give your best jokes, right?Will Reading Cowen's Book Help You Win Emergent Ventures?Dwarkesh Patel Let's say someone applying to emergent ventures reads your book. Are they any better off? Or are they perhaps worse off because maybe they become misleading or have a partial view into what's required of them?Tyler Cowen   I hope they're not better off in a way, but probably they are. I hope they use it to understand their own talent better and present it in a better way. Not just to try to manipulate the system. But most people aren't actually that good at manipulating that kind of system so I'm not too worried.Dwarkesh Patel   In a sense, if they can manipulate the system, that's a positive signal of some kind.Tyler Cowen   Like, if you could fool me –– hey, what else have you got to say, you know? [laughs]Dwarkesh Patel   Are you worried that when young people will encounter you now, they're going to think of you as sort of a talent judge and a good one at that so they're maybe going to be more self aware than whether––Tyler Cowen   Yes. I worry about the effect of this on me. Maybe a lot of my interactions become less genuine, or people are too self conscious, or too stilted or something.Dwarkesh Patel   Is there something you can do about that? Or is that just baked in the gig?Tyler Cowen   I don't know, if you do your best to try to act genuine, whatever that means, maybe you can avoid it a bit or delay it at least a bit. But a lot of it I don't think you can avoid. In part, you're just cashing in. I'm 60 and I don't think I'll still be doing this when I'm 80. So if I have like 18 years of cashing in, maybe it's what I should be doing.Identifying talent earlyDwarkesh Patel   To what extent are the principles of finding talent timeless? If you're looking for let's say, a general for the French Revolution, how much of this does the advice change? Are the basic principles the same over time?Tyler Cowen   Well, one of the key principles is context. You need to focus on how the sector is different. But if you're doing that, then I think at the meta level the principles broadly stay the same.Dwarkesh Patel   You have a really interesting book about autism and systematizers. You think Napoleon was autistic?Tyler Cowen   I've read several biographies of him and haven't come away with that impression, but you can't rule it out. Who are the biographers? Now it gets back to our question of: How valuable is history? Did the biographers ever meet Napoleon? Well, some of them did, but those people had such weak.. other intellectual categories. The modern biography is written by Andrew Roberts, or whoever you think is good, I don't know. So how can I know?Dwarkesh Patel   Right? Again, the issue is that the details that stick in my mind from reading the biography are the ones that make him seem autistic, right?Tyler Cowen   Yes. There's a tendency in biographies to storify things, and that's dangerous too. Dwarkesh Patel   How general across a pool is talent or just competence of any kind? If you look at somebody like Peter Thiel–– investor, great executive, great thinker even, certainly Napoleon, and I think it was some mathematician either Lagrangian or Laplace, who said that he (Napoleon) could have been a mathematician if he wanted to. I don't know if that's true, but it does seem that the top achievers in one field seem to be able to move across fields and be top achievers in other fields. I

united states america american new york university amazon spotify history money canada world president chicago google english europe education england japan nba law san francisco podcasts travel russia africa ai ukraine ohio italy toronto german japanese mit italian putting institute brazil lebron james harvard talent humility tokyo republicans middle east sweden bs democrats manhattan ceos starbucks islam nigeria identifying poland michael jordan swedish constitution bill gates hiv renaissance wifi long term operation athens mark zuckerberg average mental illness results older vc gop ea collapse academia buddha judaism iq brilliant danish venice ev gdp jordan peterson creatives inequality big apple napoleon dmv libertarians world bank caffeine senegal suits rebound hs roman empire conquest mrna akron charles barkley george soros stripe occasionally vcs existential deceit y combinator french revolution peter thiel sam harris skynet ivermectin of course stressing lifespan adderall idw sequoia pessimism kepler laplace larping sergey haruki murakami sats rationality herman melville jerry west agi pat riley christopher hitchens peter singer true potential caplan dhaka joseph conrad paul graham pnp taleb uchicago marc andreessen watch tv maximilien robespierre tyler cowen effective altruism andrew sullivan andrew roberts scott alexander bryan caplan creative destruction goodhart fukuyama us state robin hanson collison second law rene girard sam altman sean parker samuel pepys senate banking committee public intellectuals david deutsch risk aversion marginal revolution modafinil patrick collison mercatus james boswell lagrangian round mound rational voter like oh scott aaronson thomas schelling hungarian jews corn laws is london with london
The Mutual Audio Network
Sonic Society #742- Things fall Apart(092522)

The Mutual Audio Network

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 25, 2022 55:22


Jack and David return with today's feature where we have "Entropy: An Original Sci-Fi Audio Drama". In the year 2309, Humanity is at an all out civil war between Earth and her colonies, as the Kepler Government seeks to rule the entire Colonial Sector with an iron grip. Using Authoritarian tactics, Kepler relentlessly slaughters it's own people in an attempt to make the Central Colonial Council (CCC)budge. With the discovery of a potential new planet suitable for colonization, the CCC and the Earth Military create a mission: To bring a team of extraordinary people to establish a base on the planet, and become beacons of hope for the dying denizens of Kepler. The first four episodes begin now...  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Sunday Showcase
Sonic Society #742- Things fall Apart

Sunday Showcase

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 25, 2022 55:22


Jack and David return with today's feature where we have "Entropy: An Original Sci-Fi Audio Drama". In the year 2309, Humanity is at an all out civil war between Earth and her colonies, as the Kepler Government seeks to rule the entire Colonial Sector with an iron grip. Using Authoritarian tactics, Kepler relentlessly slaughters it's own people in an attempt to make the Central Colonial Council (CCC)budge. With the discovery of a potential new planet suitable for colonization, the CCC and the Earth Military create a mission: To bring a team of extraordinary people to establish a base on the planet, and become beacons of hope for the dying denizens of Kepler. The first four episodes begin now...  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

exocast
Exocast-63 c: Exoplanet news

exocast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 23, 2022 49:50 Very Popular


We cover this month's most exciting exoplanetary (and solar system) news: Andrew tells us about details of the proposed “Venus Life Finder” mission which would go beyond ESA & NASA's selected Venus missions to directly sample for organic molecules in the temperate regions of Venus' atmosphere using an interplanetary balloon! Hugh talks about how analysis of the multi-planet systems found by Kepler is still revealing new insights, in this case how chains of planets appearRead more

The Daily Space
Being a Star: Nature vs Nurture

The Daily Space

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 20, 2022 20:33 Very Popular


Asteroseismologists are combining data from TESS, Kepler, and eventually JWST to study stellar oscillations in ‘infant' stars, with the goal of creating new models for how such young stars form and evolve over time. Plus, JWST images Mars, Hubble images stars, and SpaceX manages to launch another Starlink mission in spite of weather delays.

Papo Com O Anjo
Conrado Adolpho no Papo com o Anjo

Papo Com O Anjo

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 20, 2022 33:57


Neste episódio, João Kepler recebe o escritor e empresário Conrado Adolpho. Empresário há mais de 26 anos, ele é mentor de negócios, criador dos métodos 8Ps, 9 Públicos e Sistema MCC, e autor do livro best-seller 'Os 8Ps do Marketing Digital'. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Work From Your Happy Place with Belinda Ellsworth
The Impact of Empathy in Business with Jamie Hodari

Work From Your Happy Place with Belinda Ellsworth

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 19, 2022 35:35


Empathy in business helps you provide better solutions and build long-lasting relationships with your customers.When your products and services are focused on the solutions your target audience is looking for; you get to build stronger emotional connections with your audience.When Jamie Hodari couldn't find a professional workspace for an important meeting, he was inspired to create Industrious, a company that provides high-end, flexible workspaces for people all over the country. In this episode, Jamie Hodari talks about how the ability to empathize with their customers and understand what they need has been the key to their business success.Snapshot of the Key Points from the Episode:[02:02] Jamie shares the background story of his company, Industrious. He talks about how his business has grown during COVID.[09:38] Jamie talks about the skillsets that helped him to build and run a successful business.[11:46] Jamie shares three tips for staying productive and getting the utmost outcome.[19:30] Jamie reflects on the moment he is super proud of in their business. What has been the greatest challenge in their business, and how have they transformed their business through it?[23:28] Why is acknowledging the problem the best way to deal with it?[26:04] What does working from your happy place mean to Jamie?[31:01] Jamie's piece of advice for someone who wants to start a business.About Jamie Hodari -Jamie Hodari is the CEO & Co-Founder of Industrious, the flexible workspace redefining standards of hospitality and community in the workplace.As an entrepreneur, Hodari specializes in innovation and growth, having previously founded Kepler, a rapidly growing organization experimenting with new models of university education in Rwanda.Under Hodari's leadership, Industrious has seen dramatic growth over the last few years, and especially amidst the COVID where traditional offices can't meet the needs of a workforce seeking out hybrid and remote employment. With more than 100 locations around the country and growing, Industrious is positioned to be an influential force in shaping the future of the workplace. Past and present Industrious members include: Compass, Heineken, Humana, Lyft, Pandora, Pinterest, Zillow, and Startup Grind.Hodari holds a J.D. from Yale Law School, an M.P.P. from Harvard University, and a B.A. from Columbia University.How to Connect with Jamie Hodari:https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamie-hodari-4397897/About the Host -Belinda Ellsworth is a Speaker, Trainer, Best-Selling Author, and PodcasterShe has been a professional speaker, mover, and shaker for more than 25 years. Having built three successful companies, she has helped thousands of entrepreneurs make better decisions, create successful systems, and build business strategies using her "Four Pillars of Success" system.Belinda has always had a passion and zest for life with the skill for turning dreams into reality. Over the last 20 years, she has been expertly building her speaking and consulting business, Step Into Success. How to Connect with Belinda:Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/stepintosuccessLinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/belindaellsworthInstagram - https://www.instagram.com/stepintosuccess/Website - www.workfromyourhappyplace.com

Þú veist betur
Svarthol - 1.þáttur

Þú veist betur

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 18, 2022


Velkomin aftur í Þú veist betur, ég heiti Atli Már Steinarsson og ætla að reyna mitt besta að forvitnast um fyrirbæri og hluti sem eru allt í kringum okkur en við vitum kannski ekki svo mikið um, en værum til í að vita meira. Í vetur munum við fara yfir hluti eins og málningu, frumur og banana en við byrjum á einu svakalegu dæmi. Það er nefnilega kominn tími til að tala um svarthol. Frá því að ég byrjaði með þessa þætti hef ég fjallað um alls kyns hluti sem hafa svo kveikt áhuga minn á öðrum hlutum. Eitt af því sem ég fór að pæla meira í var geimurinn, allt það sem við sjáum þarna úti og hvað þetta er allt saman. Sem kemur svo í ljós að er ekki hlaupið því að fræðast um. Því þarna úti eru hlutirnir sem gera það að verkum að við séum til, að jörðin okkar er eins og hún er og af hverju hún hagar sér svona. Þannig að þegar ég og Helgi Freyr Rúnarsson settumst niður til að tala um svarthol, var ekkert hægt að vaða bara beint í, hvað eru þau? Til að skilja þau þarf söguna, smá slettu af eðlisfræði og heilan helling af stærðfræði til dæmis, ásamt því að átta sig betur á því hvernig við fórum að því að skilja þessi fyrirbæri, sem leynast að því er virðist út um allt í geimnum. Samtalið okkar endaði í rúmum þremur klukkutímum sem ég hef reynt eftir fremsta megni að berja saman í þrjá þætti sem koma núna næstu þrjá sunnudaga. Ekki láta það koma ykkur á óvart ef þið skiljið ekki allt, útskýringin kemur oftast aðeins seinna og svo hef ég líka lært að það er bara allt í lagi að skilja ekki allt þegar kemur að þessum efnum. Sumt bara er svona, lítið við því að gera. Svo erum við heldur ekkert svartholsfræðingar eða StjörnuSævar, svo það er engin pressa á að vera með þetta allt á hreinu. Til þess erum við Helga Frey, og áður en við byrjum á sögunni þar sem við kynnumst Newton, Kepler og Einstein sem dæmi, fáum við kynningu frá viðmælandanum sjálfum. En hlustiði eftir því sem kemur þar á milli, því þar fáum við lítið dæmi sem er nýkomið fram, um það hvernig svarthol hljóma.

KPFA - Bookwaves/Artwaves
Bookwaves/Artwaves: Peter Straub and Stephen King

KPFA - Bookwaves/Artwaves

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 15, 2022 59:58


Bookwaves/Artwaves is produced and hosted by Richard Wolinsky. Links to assorted local theater & book venues   Masters of Horror and Suspense Peter Straub (1993-2022), in conversation with Richard Wolinsky and Richard A. Lupoff, recorded april 4, 1993 while on tour for his novel, “The Throat,” third in a thematic trilogy that included “Koko” and “Mystery.” Peter Straub, who died on September 4th, 2022 at the age of 79, was a master of horror and supernatural fiction whose work erased any distinction between genre and the literary world. Among his best known novels were Ghost Story, Shadowland, Floating Dragon, The Hellfire Club, and his collaboration with Stephen King, The Talisman.   He was also a poet and short fiction author. Three years after the interview, Peter Straub's novel The Hellfire Club was published to great acclaim, followed in 2001, with Black House, a sequel to The Talisman, written with Stephen King, and four later novels, the last one, A Dark Matter, published in 2010. A third book in The Talisman series was announced, but never written. A television series based on The Talisman for Netflix and created by The Duffer Brothers of Stranger Things fame, was announced in 2021 and is apparently still on track. Complete 39-minute interview. Digitized, remastered and edited by Richard Wolinsky in September, 2022. This interview has not seen the light of day in nearly thirty years.   Stephen King, in conversation with Richard Wolinsky and Lawrence Davidson, while on tour for The Dead Zone, recorded September 8, 1979 at Dark Carnival Bookstore in Berkeley. At the time of this recording, Stephen King had only written a handful of books — Carrie, Salem's Lot, The Shining and the Stand preceding The Dead Zone. There were also two novels under the pseudonym Richard Bachman, which was still a secret at the time. Since then, Stephen King has become a literary institution with over 300 credits for television and film adaptations at IMDb. He also has 64 novels, 11 collections of stories, and 5 non-fiction books. This interview was transcribed and can be found in both Feast of Fear: Conversations with Stephen King, edited by Tim Underwood and Chuck Miller, and Stephen King and Clive Barker: Macabre II, edited by James Van Hise. Photo: Stephen King during the era of the interview. Photo by Marty Reichenthal/AP/Shutterstock.   Review: “Moulin Rouge! The Musical” at BroadwaySF's Orpheum Theater through November 6, 2022.     Book Interview/Events and Theatre Links Note: Most in-person events still require proof of full vaccination for all audience members over 12 and masks. Many venues will require proof of boosters. Shows may unexpectedly close early or be postponed due to actors' positive COVID tests. Check the venue for closures, ticket refunds, and vaccination status requirements before arrival. Dates are in-theater performances unless otherwise noted. All times Pacific Standard Time. Book Stores Bay Area Book Festival  Highlights from this year's Festival, May 7-8, 2022. Book Passage.  Monthly Calendar. Mix of on-line and in-store events. Books Inc.  Mix of on-line and in-store events. The Booksmith.   Monthly Calendar. On-line events only. Center for Literary Arts, San Jose. See website for Book Club guests in upcoming months. Kepler's Books  On-line Refresh the Page program listings. Live Theater Companies Actor's Reading Collective (ARC).  See website for past streams. Alter Theatre. Upcoming: Snag by Tara Moses, filmed. American Conservatory Theatre Passengers by Shana Carroll, September 15 – October 9, 2022, Geary Theater. Aurora Theatre This Much I Know by Jonathan Spector, Sept 2 – Oct. 2, 2022. Awesome Theatre Company. Now streaming on the website: The Jersey Devil Play, Holy Sh*t That Was Scary: The Cloud; and previous productions. Berkeley Rep Goddess, conceived by Saheem Ali, August 14 – October 1, 2022. Roda Theatre. The Ripple, The Wave That Carried Me Home by Christina Anderson, September 9 – October 16, 2022, Peets Theatre. Boxcar Theatre. Nude Noir, Palace Theatre (home of Speakeasy) Oct. 14-15. See website for other listings. Brava Theatre Center: See website for events. BroadwaySF: Moulin Rouge! The Musical,  through November 6, 2022, Orpheum. To Kill A Mockingbird, through October 9, 2022, Golden Gate. Hadestown returns September 12-17, 2023 at the Orpheum. Broadway San Jose: Cats, September 20-25. The Book of Mormon, Nov. 22-27, 2022 California Shakespeare Theatre (Cal Shakes)  Lear by Marcus Gardley, September 7 – October 2, 2022. Center Rep: Always Patsy Cline by Ted Swindley, Lesher Center, Walnut Creek, September 9 – 25, 2022. Central Works The Museum Annex by Mildred Inez Lewis, Oct. 15 – Nov. 13, 2022. Cinnabar Theatre. Misery, based on the novel by Stephen King, October 14-30, 2022. Contra Costa Civic Theatre Camelot, small cast version, September 9 – October 9. Curran Theater: An Evening with Nigella Lawson, November 14, 2022. Custom Made Theatre. Zac and Siah, or Jesus in a Body Bag by Jeffrey Lo, Sept 23 – Oct. 16, 2022. Phoenix Theatrre, 414 Mason St., San Francisco. 42nd Street Moon. Cate Hayman, live at the Gateway, Sept. 30, 7:30 pm. Golden Thread  The Language of Wild Berries by Nagmeh Samini, October 14 – November 6, 2022. Potrero Stage. Landmark Musical Theater. The Addams Family, October 22 – November 20, 2022. Lorraine Hansberry Theatre. See website for upcoming shows. Magic Theatre. Campo Santo presents Otto Frank, written and performed by Roger Guenver Smith, return engagement, September 29 – October 1. See website for other events and performances. Marin Theatre Company Dunsinane by David Greig, September 22 – October 16. Mission Cultural Center for Latino Arts Upcoming Events Page. New Conservatory Theatre Center (NCTC) Aunt Jack by Nora Brigid Monahan,  September 16 – October 16, 2022. Oakland Theater Project. The Crucible by Arthur Miller, September 2-25, 2022. Pear Theater. In Theater: Bull in a China Shop/Collective Rage, in repertory, September 9 to October 2, 2022. PianoFight. Calendar of shows. PlayGround. Breed or Bust by Joyful Raven, Potretro Stage, show runs September 9 – 24, 2022. Presidio Theatre. New live performance/theatre venue kicks off in September. See website for calendar details. Ray of Light: Kinky Boots, September 21 – October 8, 2022. Sept. 14-19 shows cancelled. San Francisco Playhouse.  Indecent by Paula Vogel, September 22 – November 5, 2022. SFBATCO See website for upcoming streaming and in- theater shows. San Jose Stage Company: The Play That Goes Wrong, Sept. 21 – October 16, 2022. Shotgun Players. Man of God by Anna Ouyang Moench, September 3 – October 2, 2022. South Bay Musical Theatre: Stephen Sondheim's Company, S