Podcasts about secular stagnation

Joey Politano is an economist and a commentator who writes a popular Substack newsletter on economics. Joey is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and he rejoins David to talk about the AI investment boom and broader economic growth trends. Specifically, David and Joey also discuss generational differences in economic perspectives, the increased demand for nuclear energy, the importance of AI in driving scientific research, and much more.   Transcript for this week's episode.   Joey's X: @JosephPolitano Joey's Bluesky: @josephpolitano.bsky.social Joey's Substack   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *The AI Investment Boom* by Joey Politano   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:03:09) – The Competition Between X and Bluesky   (00:10:55) – The Generational Differences in Economic Perspectives   (00:16:23) – Breaking Down the AI Investment Boom   (00:23:55) – Have We Left Behind the World of Secular Stagnation?   (00:27:47) – Did ChatGPT Kickstart the Next Chapter of Growth?   (00:34:35) – AI and Increased Demand for Nuclear Energy   (00:39:45) – The Importance of AI in Driving Scientific Research and Growth   (00:44:34) – The Current State of Economic Growth   (00:53:40) – Outro

Learn more about CI Futures: http://completeintel.com/futures

George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute. George is also a frequent guest on Macro Musings and he rejoins the podcast to talk about some recent developments in the monetary and fiscal policy space. Specifically, David and George discuss new narratives around shadow banking and the financial crisis, the fiscal cost of large central bank balance sheets, the return of secular stagnation, and a lot more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   George's Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George's Cato profile   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *A Monetary Policy Primer: Parts 1-12* by George Selgin   *Why Shadow Banking Didn't Cause the Financial Crisis* by Norbert Michel   *The Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet: Costs to Taxpayers of Quantitative Easing* by Andy Levin and Bill Nelson   *The Monetary Executive* by Christina Parajon Skinner   *Secular Stagnation is Not Over* by Olivier Blanchard   *The Hard Road to a Soft Landing: Evidence from a (Modestly) Nonlinear Structural Model* by Randal Verbrugge and Saeed Zaman   *Brazil and Argentina to Start Preparations for a Common Currency* by Michael Stott and Lucinda Elliott   *Floor Systems for Implementing Monetary Policy: Some Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic* by Aleksander Berentsen, Christopher Waller, and Alessandro Marchesiani   *Fallen Heroes: Central Banks Face Credibility Crisis as Losses Pile Up* by Johanna Treeck   *SNB Will Shrink Balance Sheet After Record Loss, Citigroup Says* by Bastian Benrath   *George Selgin on False Dawn: The New Deal and the Promise of Recovery* by Macro Musings

In Episode 294 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Distinguished Professor of Economics and Professor of Political Science at UC Berkeley, Barry Eichengreen. In his first appearance on this podcast nearly five years ago, Dr. Eichengreen discussed the legacy of the Great Moderation, a multi-decade period of low inflation and positive economic growth that lasted between the mid-1980s and the onset of the Great Financial Crisis. Since then, developed economies have experienced a period of lackluster growth known as “secular stagnation,” characterized by historically low-interest rates, persistently low inflation, and growing levels of social and political instability. The question that Dr. Eichengreen and Demetri wrestle with in this conversation is whether the current period of higher inflation and rising interest rates is a temporary phenomenon or if we are entering a new economic paradigm where sovereign debt levels become unmanageable, multilateral cooperation breaks down, and state power grows at the expense of capital and labor. Their conversation includes a discussion about the future of the US dollar, the potential internationalization of the Chinese Yuan, the crisis brewing in the Japanese bond market, and the role of gold and other commodities as potential reserve assets in a world where fiat-based collateral comes increasingly under stress. You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 01/17/2023

Las economías avanzadas, además de China y algunos mercados emergentes y economías en desarrollo que dependen del comercio y la inversión extranjera, se enfrentan a un crecimiento económico lento durante mucho tiempo. No dejes de saber que son los 'trucoCoins'.Fuentes y textos:— Food in a green light: a systems approach to sustainable food. Luxemburgo: Publications Office of the European Union, 2019. https:// www.eea.europa.eu/publications/food-in-a-green-light— Secular Stagnation, Not Secular Stagflationhttps://www.project-syndicate.org/com...

Gerard Minack has a wealth of experience as a macro strategist and founded Minack Advisors in 2013.  Gerard has been particularly prescient over the last 18 months, highlighting the probability of rising inflation and higher interest rates well before many others.  We discuss how the pandemic changed Gerard's macro views, why he believes secular stagnation has come to an end and what implications that has for investors in the years ahead.  Gerard also talks about why he believes a recession in the US next year is more likely than not.Show notes:[1:19] Gerard talks about joining the industry on Black Monday in 1987[2:17] Founding Minack Advisors after a successful career in big investment banks[6:49] The end of secular stagnation [11:34] The implications of such a change[14:06] Most investors still underestimate the possibility of secular change[15:52] The risk of recession isn't adequately priced by markets[17:25] Why Gerard believes this will be a two part bear market with a recession hitting earnings next year[20:35] Equities usually trough a few months before the end of a recession[25:00] Labour inflation and why the Federal Reserve's job is so hard[27:08] The winners of the next decade[33:11] Private assets and why it is becoming harder to generate alpha[35:27] Why Gerard thinks US government bonds may now be a good place to hide[37:28] The credit cycle[40:20] Do a job that you enjoy

"This is one of the best economic history books I've ever read."J. Bradford "Brad" DeLong, Berkeley economics professor, former Clinton-era Treasury official, and pioneering economics blogger* joins today's conversation on the heels of his latest book release, Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the Twentieth Century. Part history lesson, part economic theory discussion, Brad and James debate what DeLong has dubbed the "long twentieth century" from 1870 to 2010 where the "last three institutional blocks" fell into place: the industrial research lab, the modern corporation, and the modern globalized market.Additional Topics Include:How Westinghouse was able to utilize Nikola Tesla's genius (07:30)Reagan's experiment with "Trickle Down" theory (22:27)Do "the 99%" have more equal income distribution than in previous eras? (28:16)Public Colleges' funding model switch from taxpayers to attendees in the 1970s (35:28)Secular Stagnation in the Post-2010 Economy (50:40)"The people with the want don't have the money, and the people with the money don't have the want" (58:39)What the Federal Reserve should do over the next 18 months (01:05:03)Editor's note: Topic times don't account for sponsor ads and may appear a few minutes later in the episode on your podcast player)------------Visit Notepd.com to read our idea lists & sign up to create your own!My new book Skip the Line is out! Make sure you get a copy wherever books are sold!Join the You Should Run for President 2.0 Facebook Group, where we discuss why you should run for President.I write about all my podcasts! Check out the full post and learn what I learned at jamesaltucher.com/podcast.------------Thank you so much for listening! If you like this episode, please rate, review, and subscribe  to “The James Altucher Show” wherever you get your podcasts: Apple PodcastsStitcheriHeart RadioSpotifyFollow me on Social Media:YouTubeTwitterFacebook

"This is one of the best economic history books I've ever read."J. Bradford "Brad" DeLong, Berkeley economics professor, former Clinton-era Treasury official, and pioneering economics blogger* joins today's conversation on the heels of his latest book release, Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the Twentieth Century. Part history lesson, part economic theory discussion, Brad and James debate what DeLong has dubbed the "long twentieth century" from 1870 to 2010 where the "last three institutional blocks" fell into place: the industrial research lab, the modern corporation, and the modern globalized market.Additional Topics Include:How Westinghouse was able to utilize Nikola Tesla's genius (07:30)Reagan's experiment with "Trickle Down" theory (22:27)Do "the 99%" have more equal income distribution than in previous eras? (28:16)Public Colleges' funding model switch from taxpayers to attendees in the 1970s (35:28)Secular Stagnation in the Post-2010 Economy (50:40)"The people with the want don't have the money, and the people with the money don't have the want" (58:39)What the Federal Reserve should do over the next 18 months (01:05:03)Editor's note: Topic times don't account for sponsor ads and may appear a few minutes later in the episode on your podcast player)------------Visit Notepd.com to read our idea lists & sign up to create your own!My new book Skip the Line is out! Make sure you get a copy wherever books are sold!Join the You Should Run for President 2.0 Facebook Group, where we discuss why you should run for President.I write about all my podcasts! Check out the full post and learn what I learned at jamesaltucher.com/podcast.------------Thank you so much for listening! If you like this episode, please rate, review, and subscribe  to "The James Altucher Show" wherever you get your podcasts: Apple PodcastsStitcheriHeart RadioSpotifyFollow me on Social Media:YouTubeTwitterFacebook ------------What do YOU think of the show? Head to JamesAltucherShow.com/listeners and fill out a short survey that will help us better tailor the podcast to our audience!Are you interested in getting direct answers from James about your question on a podcast? Go to JamesAltucherShow.com/AskAltucher and send in your questions to be answered on the air!------------Visit Notepd.com to read our idea lists & sign up to create your own!My new book, Skip the Line, is out! Make sure you get a copy wherever books are sold!Join the You Should Run for President 2.0 Facebook Group, where we discuss why you should run for President.I write about all my podcasts! Check out the full post and learn what I learned at jamesaltuchershow.com------------Thank you so much for listening! If you like this episode, please rate, review, and subscribe to "The James Altucher Show" wherever you get your podcasts: Apple PodcastsiHeart RadioSpotifyFollow me on social media:YouTubeTwitterFacebookLinkedIn

Dallas Fed drops a truth bomb. Too much government. Ten years of stupidity. G7 covering their buttocks. California walking around money. When will they do something good and productive about the border and immigration?

Description: On this week's episode of the Macrocast, Tony, Brendan, and John break down the newest consumer price index (CPI) numbers, noting that the numbers were high across the board. They also cover how several retail companies have reduced their earnings forecasts due to changes in consumer demand for certain products. Tony, Brendan, and John finish the episode walking through the CPI numbers in Japan, explaining how Japan has been known for secular stagnation.   Read more about the CPI.

Mit Rüdiger Bachmann und Christan Bayer. Darin: Die stetig differenzierbare Nachfragefunktion, John Rawls, eBay, Planwirtschaft, alternde und alte Gesellschaften, Konstanz Seminar, Gauti Eggertsson, Secular Stagnation, Great Moderation, New Economy, Spritpreisdeckel, Übergewinnsteuer, Zölle auf Energieimporte. Schnitzer et al: Does Tax Policy Work When Consumers Have Imperfect Price Information? Eggertsson et al: Aging, Output Per Capita and Secular […]

Mit Rüdiger Bachmann und Christan Bayer. Darin: Die stetig differenzierbare Nachfragefunktion, John Rawls, eBay, Planwirtschaft, alternde und alte Gesellschaften, Konstanz Seminar, Gauti Eggertsson, Secular Stagnation, Great Moderation, New Economy, Spritpreisdeckel, Übergewinnsteuer, Zölle auf Energieimporte. Schnitzer et al: Does Tax Policy Work When Consumers Have Imperfect Price Information? Eggertsson et al: Aging, Output Per Capita and Secular […]

Larry Summers has been at the forefront of economic thinking for decades - a World Bank chief economist, Professor at Harvard and U.S. Treasury Secretary. He's also warned that the global economy is in the midst of secular stagnation. In this episode, he tells Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers why the economy is stagnant, in spite of low interest rates. The three economists also discuss why their field is so influential, and Larry reveals how policy makers get things done.Editor: Alastair Elphick. A Modulated Media production.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week we've brought you a double feature! First we talk to Luke Petach about his article on "Spatial Keynesianism." Macroeconomic policy was, at its inception, methodologically nationalist, and Keynesian policies fostered income convergence all across the US as poor regions caught up to wealthier ones. We talk about how that worked and why it ended.Then we bring on his co-author and former adviser, Daniele Tavani to talk about the post-Keynesian tradition, its differences with the Marxian economic tradition, and how they might be brought together again under the rubric of secular stagnation. Along the way we discuss Italy's unique place in the post-Keynesian tradition, and Piketty's contribution to the profession.The first ep ends and the second picks up @55:25.*** LINKS ***Follow Luke on twitter @LPetachRead "Spatial Keynesian policy and the decline of regional income convergence in the USA" here: https://academic.oup.com/cje/article-abstract/45/3/487/6145995Read "Income shares, secular stagnation and the long-run distribution of wealth" here: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/meca.12277Read "Aggregate Demand Externalities, Income Distribution, and Wealth Inequality" here: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3855763Find more of Luke's papers here: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=NUZzlFEAAAAJ&hl=enExplore Daniele's work here: http://www.danieletavani.com/Other papers mentioned: Ganesh Sitaraman, Morgan Ricks & Christopher Serkin, "Regulation and the Geography of Inequality" https://dlj.law.duke.edu/article/regulation-and-the-geography-of-inequality-sitaraman-vol70-iss8/Manduca, "How National Income Inequality in the United States Contributes to Economic Disparities Between Regions" https://equitablegrowth.org/how-national-income-inequality-in-the-united-states-contributes-to-economic-disparities-between-regions/Nathan, "The Nationalization of Proposition 13," https://www.jstor.org/stable/418699Kaldor, "The Case for Regional Policies," https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9485.1970.tb00712.xVerdoorn's law, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verdoorn%27s_lawNakamura and Steinsson, "Fiscal Stimulus in a Monetary Union: Evidence from US Regions" https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257%2Faer.104.3.753

Checkout our spotify playlist @ The Wierman Waggle Playlist This Episodes EPIC 5 List goes to=RIP ~Mac MillerRIP ~ Lexii AlajaiRIP Prince RIP Queen Bee~ Lisa Marie King "my king of all queens my mom my queen Bee" Gary Vaynerchuk(We are becoming Homo Deus Immortal and Abundant worldwide so I like to share the ones who have died as our EPIC 5 letting their legacies and stories live in eternity)The Wierman Waggle Show focuses on the relevance of the number 5 the relevance of the color green the solution for overcoming the prisoners dilemma that the southampton team used to solve the game via communication as well as the community structure that bees use as well as the "WAGGLE DANCE" that bees use to communicate where resources are located sharing their value or knowledge/Insight freely with their community using communication collaboration and co operation as their primary means to sustain we must as a species do the same using the written word photo and video to elevate the level at which we operate co operate communicate and create using the tools of technology to do so at scale leveraging our inexactness/ambiguities via our life experiences to share our authentic truth as well as use our story to connect impact reach and influence while educating advocating and empowering others to do the same!

After the Great War and Spanish Flu, the 1920s saw a rejuvenation of the economy with a golden age of booming consumerism, innovation and culture. Now economists are questioning whether history is set to repeat itself. Will we see the 2020s roar? Or is secular stagnation here to stay?In this episode our host Paul Diggle is joined by special guest Dominic White, Head of Economics at Absolute Strategy Research. Having published a recent note ‘Signs of a shift out of Secular Stagnation', Dominic comes with some interesting views on how we can compare the 1920s economic boom with the 2020s in relation to the economic aftermath of the Covid pandemic.Part 1 begins by characterising the Roaring Twenties decade, drawing parallels between 1920 and 2020 and explaining secular stagnation.Part 2 discusses why the Roaring 2020s analogy falls short and focuses on why investors and markets should remain optimistic.Don't forget to like and subscribe to our podcast on Apple, Spotify, Google Podcasts or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts.

The Interview: Narratives around the reflation trade and asset prices are currently pointing towards a full recovery and a period of extended growth as the world exits lockdowns. In this interview with Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison, Daniel Lacalle, chief economist and CIO at Tressis, argues that this is being fueled by nothing more than hope and that, although this is a recovery, the world will return to the same state of secular stagnation and low growth that existed pre-COVID. Lacalle explains why fiscal and monetary policies, which have not generated inflation, will only make this situation worse, why he thinks there is only a few months left in the reflation trade, and the resulting asset allocation based on his outlook. They also discuss current pockets of value and the sectors that Lacalle considers to be value traps like energy and financials as well as Lacalle’s outlook for the dollar. Recorded on March 10, 2021. Key Learnings: Sectors like energy and financials, which have been benefiting from reflation narratives and trade at low multiples, should not be considered "value". Current negative views on the US and the dollar remind Lacalle of the GFC, but the reality is that the US and the dollar are still the cleanest dirty shirt. For our Listeners : Join Arca's  4th annual FO256 conference virtually, Tuesday May 25th by registering at www.ar.ca/21FO256.  Blinkist: Go to blinkist.com/realvision, try it for seven days and save twenty five percent off your new subscription. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

After a decade of falling inflation and interest rates, investors must now go back to the drawing board as we look to a very different world in prospect. The aftermath of the GFC saw a series of discrete factors which crippled growth: fiscal austerity; EU intransigence; Chinese tightening and reform… then a global trade war and a global pandemic! The world has changed. Yet investors appear anchored to a narrative about growth and inflation that will prove supremely unhelpful as the global economy reopens amid vaccine distribution, sees the effective cessation of the “US-versus everyone” trade war and widespread, colossal, redistributive fiscal policy. Those who cling to yesterday's narrative may forego one of the great trades of recent decades as the world shifts to a “global reopening” narrative and away from that of “secular stagnation”. - Julian McCormack, Platinum Asset Management. Earn 0.50 CE/CPD hrs on Portfolio Construction Forum

Ian Macfarlane was Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia from 1996 to 2006. Show notes Selected links •Follow Ian: Website •The Deficit Myth, by Stephanie Kelton •Macroeconomics, by William Mitchell, L. Randall Ray and Martin Watts •'Indebted Demand', paper by Atif Mian, Ludwig Straub and Amir Sufi Topics discussed •Monetary policy. 4:44 •Modern Monetary Theory. 42:07 •Secular Stagnation and Indebted Demand. 1:11:10

In this episode, we are joined by Prof. Nicholas Crafts. Nick covers the interwar period, the Great Depression, the Golden Age and Secular Stagnation. We also discuss the "social capabilities" of economies and the idea that an appropriate "institutional fit" for one economic age will not necessarily be the correct configuration to exploit the opportunities of the next epoch.

Over the past decade, U.S. federal debt as a share of the economy has grown to levels not reached since the aftermath of World War II. Recent tax cuts and ongoing fiscal stimulus related to the Covid-19 pandemic have placed U.S. debt on an unstable and unprecedented path moving forward. Gauging the long-term sustainability of federal debt hinges on projections of one key underlying variable: the interest rate.  How are debt projections and the interest rate tied to broad demographic transformations underway in the U.S. and across the world today? And how worried should we be by rising federal debt?   This special podcast is drawn from a webinar hosted by the Baker Institute Roundtable on April 28. It features Dr. Jorge Barro, a fellow in public finance at the Baker Institute. His area of research involves the development of dynamic macroeconomic models for fiscal policy evaluation. Barro is joined by Ms. Morgan Garvey, stewardship officer at the institute.

Our guest on this week's installment of "The Long View" podcast is James Montier. Montier is a member of the asset-allocation team at Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. Before joining GMO in 2009, he was co-head of global strategy at Societe Generale. A prolific and incisive writer, Montier has authored several books, including Behavioural Investing: A Practitioner's Guide to Applying Behavioural Finance; Value Investing: Tools and Techniques for Intelligent Investment; and The Little Book of Behavioral Investing. He's also a regular contributor to GMO's library of white papers and research studies on topics ranging from productivity, strategic asset allocation, contrarianism, and more. In addition to his duties at GMO, Montier is also a visiting fellow at the University of Durham and a fellow of the Royal Society of Arts. Background  Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. Behavioural Investing: A Practitioner's Guide to Applying Behavioural Finance by James Montier  Value Investing: Tools and Techniques for Intelligent Investment by James Montier  The Little Book of Behavioral Investing: How Not to Be Your Own Worst Enemy by James Montier  GMO's research library   Montier's articles in GMO's research library  Montier's Role at GMO "My role is essentially to be difficult, and it turns out I'm quite good at that." Montier describes his role at GMO and how his contributions to the firm are measured. (1:10-3:11) Ben Inker bio  Fostering Debate at GMO "We have never had a house view." Why debate and constructive devil's advocacy is welcome at GMO. (3:12-4:31) "Investing is one of those fields where there is almost constant evidence that we are all wrong." How to foster humility and a diversity of views. (4:32-7:38) Debating Jeremy Grantham on mean reversion: Montier gives an example of an issue the team has debated recently--how long it takes for markets to revert to their long-term averages. (7:39-9:36) Jeremy Grantham bio  "This Time Seems Very, Very Different" by Jeremy Grantham (GMO Quarterly Letter, 1Q 2017)   "The S&P 500: Just Say No" by Matt Kadnar and James Montier (Aug. 15, 2017)  Forecasting and Portfolio Construction How the debate over mean reversion informs GMO's asset-class forecasts. (9:37-10:09) GMO 7-Year Asset Class Forecast (May 2019)  Corporate concentration and low interest rates: How GMO is reconsidering these variables and their impact on the asset-class forecasts it makes. (10:10-11:38) "The Idolatry of Interest Rates, Part II: Financial Heresy and Potential Utility in an ERP Framework" by James Montier and Ben Inker (Aug. 11, 2015) How GMO incorporates its asset-class forecasts into the multi-asset strategies it manages. (11:39-12:37) GMO Benchmark-Free Allocation III GBMFX   The appeal of a "robust" forecast that's meant to help portfolios withstand various potential outcomes. (12:38-14:15) "Our portfolios look a little freakish." Montier explains why GMO is U.S.-stock-phobic and, conversely, why the firm is finding value in alternatives. (14:16-18:04) GMO Benchmark-Free Allocation II Fund's asset allocation  Sir John Templeton: "If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd." Career risk: Where individual investors hold an edge over institutions. (18:05-18:55) "Career Risk Is Likely to Always Dominate Investing" by Jeremy Grantham (Dec. 24, 2014, Finanz and Wirtschaft)  Alternatives Montier defines "alternatives." Different ways of owning standard risks--depression risk, inflation risk, and liquidity. (18:56-21:49) "The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money" by John Maynard Keynes  Montier presents two examples of alternative strategies that GMO employs--merger arbitrage and put-selling--to own standard risks in different ways. (21:50-25:49)  Merger-arbitrage definition   Put-selling definition  "Is This Purgatory, or Is It Hell?" by Ben Inker (GMO Quarterly Letter, 3Q 2014)  "We should size them such that they cannot hurt the overall fund should we get something wrong." How GMO sizes its positions in alternative strategies. (25:50-27:33)  GMO Systematic Global Macro Trust  Alpha, beta, and decay: How GMO assesses an alternative strategy's vulnerability to being arbitraged away. (27:34-29:57) GMO's Bearish U.S. Equity Forecast "How do I get paid for owning this asset?" Key inputs to GMO's U.S. equity forecast--multiple, margin, yield, and growth. (29:58-32:08) "Back to Basics: Six Questions to Consider Before Investing" by Ben Inker (Nov. 8, 2010)  "A behavioral self-defense mechanism." How GMO's approach to forecasting helps to structure its thinking and anchors decision-making. (32:09-34:54) "It's really valuation where we've been most wrong." Where GMO's U.S. equity forecast erred in recent years. (34:55-36:01) "We have to wear that. We have to own it." Montier on steps that GMO has taken to introspect on its forecasting error and how that expresses itself in the way it makes decisions and manages money. (36:02-39:45) Planning Amid a Dearth of Value "A reach for yield in any way, shape, or form." Explaining the dearth of value. (39:46-41:43) "The Deep Causes of Secular Stagnation and the Rise of Populism" by James Montier and Philip Pilkington (March 22, 2017)  "We have always been pretty bad at (forecasting), and it's unlikely we're going to get a lot better." (41:44-44:37) How should investors and advisors forecast asset-class returns and plan for the future? (44:38-47:25) "Investing for Retirement: The Defined Contribution Challenge" by Ben Inker and Martin Tarlie (April 5, 2014) Capital Allocation Montier on the folly of firms borrowing to repurchase shares: "The more stable the environment, the easier it is to take on leverage, but the greater the danger that taking leverage creates further down the line when you get some random shock." (47:26-50:49) "The Late Cycle Lament: The Dual Economy, Minsky Moments, and Other Concerns" by James Montier (Dec. 17, 2018)   "The Financial Instability Hypothesis" by Hyman P. Minsky (May 1992; The Jerome Levy Economics Institute of Bard College) 

WHY secular stagnation was an imposed fallacy on US under Obama administration.

Caroline Freund is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE). Previously, she served as the chief economist for the Middle East and North Africa at the World Bank. She joins the show to discuss her career in trade policy and her work on the slowdown in global trade since the Great Recession. Finally, she also shares her thought on President Trump’s trade policies. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Caroline’s PIIE profile: https://piie.com/experts/senior-research-staff/caroline-freund?author_id=906 Caroline’s Bloomberg archive: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/contributors/AQnL_eq2K8M/caroline-freund Caroline’s Twitter: @CarolineFreund Related links: *Rich People, Poor Countries: The Rise of Emerging-Market Tycoons and Their Mega Firms* by Caroline Freund (assisted by Sarah Oliver) https://piie.com/bookstore/rich-people-poor-countries-rise-emerging-market-tycoons-and-their-mega-firms “The Global Trade Slowdown and Secular Stagnation” by Caroline Freund https://piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/global-trade-slowdown-and-secular-stagnation “Invest in minds, not miners” by Caroline Freund and Christine McDaniel https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-07-06/the-u-s-needs-to-invest-in-minds-not-miners “U.S. Needs Trade Deals, Not ‘Remedies’” by Caroline Freund https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-14/u-s-needs-china-trade-deals-not-remedies “The China Shock: Learning from Labor Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade” by David H. Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson http://www.nber.org/papers/w21906 "Trump's Trade Pullout Roils Rural America" by Adam Behsudi http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/07/trump-tpp-deal-withdrawal-trade-effects-215459

Lawrence Summers is the Charles W. Eliot University Professor and President Emeritus of Harvard University. Previously, he served as U.S. Treasury Secretary under President Bill Clinton and Director of the National Economic Council under President Obama. In today’s episode, he joins the show to discuss his work as both an academic and a policymaker. He also shares his thoughts on monetary and fiscal policy since the recent financial crisis and Great Recession. Finally, he explains why he has recently become more open to nominal GDP targeting. You can read the transcript to the full interview here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/sya7syeqgjp1gxq/Summers_transcript.doc?dl=0 David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Lawrence Summers’ website: http://larrysummers.com/ Larry Summers’ Washington post archive: https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/lawrence-summers/?utm_term=.2cf6f67e2ce9 Larry Summers’ Twitter: @LHSummers Related links: “Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and Their Monetary Policy Implications” by Olivier Blanchard, Eugenio Cerutti, and Lawrence Summers https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15230.pdf “The Permanent Effects of Fiscal Consolidation” by Antonio Fatas and Larry Summers http://www.nber.org/papers/w22374 “5 Reasons Why the Fed Might Be Making a Mistake” by Larry Summers https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/06/14/larry-summers-5-reasons-why-the-fed-may-be-making-a-mistake/?utm_term=.3e48ce5bd142 *** [Also, be sure to subscribe to Mercatus’ “Conversations with Tyler” podcast, hosted by Tyler Cowen. Tyler also interviewed Larry Summers and discussed a wide range of topics, including trade policy, immigration, asset-pricing, monopolies, and even table tennis. You can listen to that conversation here: https://soundcloud.com/conversationswithtyler/28-larry-summers-on-macroeconomics-mentorship-and-avoiding-complacency You can also find previous episodes of “Conversations with Tyler” at https://medium.com/conversations-with-tyler]

What does secular stagnation mean for a market economy? What causes it and how could countries overcome it? Listen to the latest episode of Pocket Economics with the EBRD’s Sergei Guriev.

Origion of Secular Stagnation

Female Serial Killers: Although there is much written on male serial killers, there's less analysis of their female equivalent, perhaps because of their comparitive rarity. Elizabeth Yardley, Associate Professor of Criminology at Birmingham City University, talks to Laurie Taylor about her new study into the social context in which such killings occur. They're joined by Lisa Downing, Professor of French Discourses of Sexuality at the University of Birmingham. Also Secular Stagnation: the impossibility of an economic future for our grandchildren? Kevin O'Rourke, the Chichele Professor of Economic History at All Souls College Oxford, discusses the recent revival of the hypothesis that 'secular stagnation' - negligible or zero economic growth - could lead to permanently depressed economies, if no policy counter-measures are taken. What's the history of this theory and how applicable is it today? Producer: Jayne Egerton.

Dr Miguel Morin talks to Prof. Coen Teulings about Secular Stagnation

Professor Paul Krugman, Sanjaya Lall Visiting Professor, leads a panel discussion on whether the world's economy is facing 'secular stagnation' 5 years after the credit crunch. Professor Paul Krugman, Lord Adair Turner and Lord Robert Skidelsky discuss the state of the global economy. The discussion is prompted by a talk on 'Secular Stagnation' by Professor Paul Krugman, Sanjaya Lall Visiting Professor, Trinity Term 2014, and Professor of Economics and International Affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University.

Professor Paul Krugman, Sanjaya Lall Visiting Professor, leads a panel discussion on whether the world's economy is facing 'secular stagnation' 5 years after the credit crunch. Professor Paul Krugman, Lord Adair Turner and Lord Robert Skidelsky discuss the state of the global economy. The discussion is prompted by a talk on 'Secular Stagnation' by Professor Paul Krugman, Sanjaya Lall Visiting Professor, Trinity Term 2014, and Professor of Economics and International Affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University.

Mike talks to economist Glenn Hubbard. Dr. Hubbard is dean and Russell L. Carson Professor of Finance and Economics at Columbia Business School. In addition to writing more than 100 scholarly articles in economics and finance, Dr. Hubbard is the author of three popular textbooks, as well as co-author of The Aid Trap: Hard Truths About Ending Poverty, Balance: The Economics of Great Powers From Ancient Rome to Modern America, and Healthy, Wealthy, and Wise: Five Steps to a Better Health Care System. Dr. Hubbard also has a wealth of real-world economic policy experience. From 1991 - 1993 he was a Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury. From 2001 until 2003, he was chairman of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush, where he played a key role in the design of the 2003 Bush tax cuts. He also served as an economic advisor to the 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns of Mitt Romney, and the 2016 campaign of Jeb Bush. In the corporate sector, he serves on the boards of ADP, BlackRock Closed-End Funds, and MetLife. Dr. Hubbard is co-chair of the Committee on Capital Markets Regulation, a past Chair of the Economic Club of New York, and a past co-chair of the Study Group on Corporate Boards. Mike and Dr. Hubbard discuss the fall of great powers throughout history, whether economists are too disconnected from the real world, pro-growth tax reform, what economists agree on, the value added tax, and lots more. Dr. Hubbard Recommends: - The Economist | https://www.economist.com/ - Think tank research. Two of our favorites at The Politics Guys are the right-of-center American Enterprise Institute (http://www.aei.org) and the left-of-center Brookings Institution (https://www.brookings.edu/) Dr. Hubbard's Website: http://glennhubbard.net/ We hope you'll consider checking out the sponsor of today's show: SeatGeek. Politics Guys listeners get $20 dollars off their first SeatGeek purchase. Just download the SeatGeek app or go to http://www.seatgeek.com and enter promo code POLITICSGUY. Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. If you're interested in supporting the show, go to http://www.politicsguys.com and click on the Patreon link. Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/the-politics-guys/donations Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy