FICC Focus

Emerging market hard-currency credit continues to outperform most major fixed-income asset classes, yet it also offers a wide range of tactical and relative value positioning. Marcelo Assalin, head of EM debt and portfolio manager at William Blair Investment Management, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief EM fixed-income strategist, to discuss positioning and performance heading into 2H26. They also examine underlying valuations, with a focus on the fundamental and technical factors that are driving institutional interest in EM fixed income.

Housing affordability, mortgage-market modernization and changing refinance behavior are reshaping the outlook for mortgage-backed securities. Erica Adelberg, Bloomberg Intelligence MBS strategist, joins Ira Jersey, BI chief US interest-rate strategist, on this edition of the FICC Focus podcast, Macro Matters. Adelberg discusses how new credit-score models and lender choice could expand mortgage access while also complicating prepayment and credit analysis for MBS investors. The two also examine how technology and artificial intelligence are changing mortgage origination and servicing, why Rocket Mortgage's growing servicing footprint could accelerate refinancing activity and how recent housing legislation could affect supply and financing at the margin. They also discuss curve flattening, the resurgence of hybrid ARMs, relative value across agency and non-agency mortgage products and why mortgage spreads remain highly sensitive to volatility even as all-in yields look attractive.

On the face of it, index volatility has remained relatively subdued, but underneath there is significant rotation and elevated single-stock volatility. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence chief global derivatives strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna, to discuss equity volatility and flows.The All Options Considered podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series. Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

“The portfolio manager's dilemma is, ‘Do I take risk, or do I not take risk?'” Noel McElreath, senior portfolio manager for US fixed income at Xponance, tells Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert. “And then, ‘What is excess return telling me?'” On this episode of Credit Crunch, the pair discuss the importance of disciplined credit selection, exploiting structural inefficiencies and maintaining a long-term perspective. McElreath notes that, though current market conditions are favorable, tight spreads, investor complacency and the surge in AI-related borrowing present valuation risk. The two also talk about the implications of having a new Fed chair, the importance of dealer relationships and positioning against the benchmark. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series. 

To illustrate how uniquely challenging the restructuring experience is for the unacquainted, C Street Advisory Group founder and CEO Jon Henes recalled a client CEO's sentiment after complex, hardball restructuring negotiations: “Every time we walk into a room ... I feel like I'm in one big game of poker. Except you know what your cards are and you know what my cards are and you know what everybody in the room's cards are and so do they. The only person who doesn't know what anybody's cards are is me ... And I'm the CEO of the company.” Henes sits down with Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel to explore boardroom dynamics (including a Wellman Chapter 11 retrospective) around those “most consequential moments,” managing fast-moving leaks by controlling the narrative, the intersection of Big Law and AI, and his outlook on LMEs and bankruptcies. The podcast concludes (1:24:00) with BI's Noel Hebert joining Negisa and Phil to discuss the latest developments in Incora, Serta, First Brands, Optimum Communications and DISH DBS. The State of Distressed Debt podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

Darrell Duffie, the Adams Distinguished Professor of Management and Finance at Stanford Graduate School of Business, joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast to discuss how much the Federal Reserve can realistically shrink its balance sheet under Chair Kevin Warsh. Duffie argues that the real constraint isn't on the asset side, but on the liability side of the Fed's balance sheet, especially reserve balances, paper currency and the Treasury General Account. The two examine how payment-system needs, liquidity regulations and banks' operational demand for reserves limit how far the Fed can go and why changes to those frameworks would be necessary for any meaningful reduction in balance-sheet size. They also discuss whether the Fed should rely more on traditional temporary open-market operations, the case for shifting the asset mix toward Treasury bills and away from mortgage-backed securities, and how intraday overdrafts or liquidity-saving mechanisms could reduce reserve demand over time. The episode closes with a discussion of stablecoins, why they may increase demand for reserves at the margin and why Duffie believes they are unlikely to transform the domestic payments system anytime soon. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Win Thin, chief economist at Bank of Nassau 1982 Limited, discuss the US dollar outlook into 2H. They acknowledge the return of economics and yields as key FX drivers which implies that dollar strength may be the path of least resistance, at least in 3Q, and for as long as US economic exceptionalism dominates. Win and Audrey also share respective views on Fed policy, with low market conviction in the debate about rate cuts vs. rate hikes associated with low conviction about the near-term dollar view. Dollar-yen and FX views outside the dollar box, including EMFX, are also part of Win and Audrey's discussion. Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Credit and high yield recovered all losses due to the Iran war in 2Q. Will 3Q keep delivering gains, and why? Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence global head of credit strategy, discusses the results of the BI 3Q26 Investor Survey and the market outlook with David Fancourt, High Yield Fund Manager at M&G Investments. They discuss valuations and central bank actions, along with distress and default rates. This podcast also covers survey results on investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, supply forecasts and relative value across asset classes (high grade vs. junk), geography (Europe vs. US), ratings and sectors.The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

“When you just think about the distribution of outcomes on corporate bonds from these levels of spreads, the cost of getting a few of them wrong can wipe out a quarter, or even a year of alpha in these sort of lower-return opportunity type environments,” says Connor Fitzgerald, fixed income portfolio manager for Wellington Management. Fitzgerald joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast and discusses his cautious but constructive credit view, with spreads offering limited compensation for risk, particularly in investment grade (IG). The two talk defensive positioning, disciplined security selection, positive convexity and patience for better entry points to drive alpha, as well as longer-term IG supports including demographics and higher yields. AI-driven corporate capex funding and potential investor indigestion, fiscal dominance and balancing bottom-up and top-down views are also discussed.

Global credit markets swung through war and peace, making strategic insights essential for the second half of the year. Bloomberg Intelligence's credit strategists have their sights set on 2H, but what do their outlooks hold? In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's global head of credit strategy, hosts BI's global credit strategy team to discuss key research, data and views from around the world. Basel Al-Waqayan (Middle East), Tim Tan and Jason Lee (Asia), Reto Bachmann (structured credit), Heema Patel (Europe) and Sam Geier (US) share their outlooks and the key themes shaping their regions. Access their research on the Bloomberg Terminal at BI STRTA, BI STRTE, BI STRTN and BI EMFIG. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Bloomberg Intelligence Chief European Rates Strategist Huw Worthington joins Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast to discuss the latest moves from the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and global rate markets. Worthington explains why the ECB's recent rate hike may already look too aggressive now that oil and gas prices have fallen back, and why the market may be overpricing further tightening if euro-area inflation undershoots target in 2027 and 2028. The two also examine why Europe's growth backdrop remains weaker than the US, how the ECB's single inflation mandate differs from the Fed's broader framework, and why those differences matter for yield curves and market pricing. They also discuss the UK gilt market, including the impact of political turnover, fiscal constraints and leadership changes on long-end yields, as well as the outlook for peripheral spreads in Europe. The episode closes with a look at anomalies in US SOFR curve pricing, including why Bloomberg Intelligence sees current expectations for multiple Fed hikes, followed quickly by cuts, as difficult to justify.

“LLMs give us the opportunity to kind of rethink how much expected skill we can get out of our tools and techniques,” says Jeffrey Rosenberg, managing director and senior fixed income portfolio manager for BlackRock Systematic. “If deep fundamental value investing is dedicating 10,000 hours to create ... concentrated portfolios based on an expectation of high degrees of skill, maybe we can do something similar because the technology allows us to.” This is an evolution from a model focused on maximizing small advantages, according to Rosenberg, who joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast. The two discuss rates decorrelation, systematic's peanut-butter-cup moment and iShares Systematic Alternatives Active ETF (IALT), the company's latest liquid systematic-strategy offering. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

Emerging market credit index futures improve liquidity and balance-sheet efficiency, yet they also open the door to a wider range of tactical and relative-value trading opportunities. Lee Bartholomew, global head of derivative markets at Deutsche Börse, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess the evolution of Eurex-listed EM credit index futures, with a focus on market structure and investor adoption. Bartholomew and Sassower discuss the potential for portfolio hedging, smart-beta overlays, basis trading and short positioning, as the universe of exchange-traded and unfunded EM credit exposure evolves.

With Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Federal Reserve chair behind him, the discourse can move to what it signals for monetary policy. Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist Anna Wong joins Ira Jersey on this edition of Macro Matters and argues that while Warsh avoided explicit forward guidance, his emphasis was on price stability, skepticism toward forecast precision and support for a shorter policy statement all point to a more hawkish lean than many investors expected.  They discuss whether Warsh is pushing the Fed back toward a more Greenspan-like communication style, why she believes the dot plot could eventually disappear in favor of broader forecast ranges, and how task forces on the balance sheet, inflation and data reliability could shape future policy debates. They also examine the outlook for inflation and the labor market, why Wong sees a rate hike this year as a mistake given her expectation for headline and core PCE to fall back toward target, and how Bloomberg Intelligence views current SOFR futures pricing as internally inconsistent. The episode closes with a discussion of the global backdrop, including softer oil prices, tighter policy abroad and the implications for the dollar and the US disinflation outlook. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

This edition of the All Options Considered podcast features a recording from the Bloomberg Volatility Forum held in Singapore on June 3. Bloomberg Intelligence's Alison Williams, head of global strategy, delivers opening remarks, followed by a keynote presentation from Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu on multi-asset volatility strategy. The program also includes a panel discussion on derivatives markets featuring Oliver Chan, portfolio manager at Capula Investment Management; Stéphane Martin, APAC head of derivatives institutional sales at Optiver; and Ivan Nurminsky, portfolio manager at Dymon Asia. In addition, Diego Parrilla, chief investment officer at Quadriga Asset Managers, discusses “The Energy World Is Flat 2.0.” Both sessions are moderated by Lianting Tu, managing editor for Asia-Pacific equities at Bloomberg News. The All Options Considered podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series. 

“If there's kind of a squeamishness about forum shopping in the US, there's a little...it's just overseas, there's none at all,” observed Harvard Law Professor Jared Ellias. “There's a great deal of pride and interest in building...an insolvency system that is equal and in some ways more useful than what they have in the United States.” Ellias sat down with Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel to discuss his new paper, “The Global Law of Debt,” co-authored with Narine Lalafaryan. Ellias traces how the historical entanglement of the New York and London debt markets has evolved into a highly competitive, globalized ecosystem where borrowers now forum-shop across borders to maximize flexibility and bypass traditional constraints like Chapter 11's absolute-priority rule. The conversation dives into the export of aggressive liability management exercises (LMEs), the implementation of hybrid “Frankenstein” debt documents and how foreign-court systems relish taking market share from the US. The podcast concludes (1:05:40) with BI's Noel Hebert joining Negisa and Phil to discuss the latest developments in First Brands Group, Optimum Communications, QVC Group and Trinseo. Link to referenced paper: https://bankruptcyroundtable.law.harvard.edu/2026/03/24/the-global-law-of-debt/

JPMorgan Asset Management sees a resilient economy facing multiple supply shocks, with inflation still largely supply-led and the Federal Reserve likely to remain on hold for now. Priya Misra, fixed-income portfolio manager at the firm and a manager of the JPMorgan Core Plus Bond ETF (JCPB Equity), joins Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist, on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast to explain how she defines the “plus” in core-plus investing, from macro duration and curve views to allocations across securitized credit, high yield and mortgage convexity management. She also discusses what Kevin Warsh's arrival as Fed chair could mean for communication policy and the dot plot, arguing that investors still need enough Fed transparency to understand each official's reaction function. The two examine where she sees value across fixed income, including high-quality spread product, duration in the five- to 10-year sector as a hedge and select structured-credit opportunities such as agency CMBS and non-agency mortgage exposure over parts of the agency RMBS market. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

Credit continues to rally despite the lack of a US-Iran peace deal, and it has served as a safe haven relative to rates. In this Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, global head of credit strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Souheir Asba, credit portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein, discuss how hyperscaler issuance and upcoming IPOs could affect the credit landscape through index and portfolio changes, and how investors should position for this wave of supply. They also compare credit performance with rates since the Iran war began, assess relative value across investment-grade, high-yield and rates markets and share sector outlooks and views on AT1s and corporate hybrids. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Emerging markets are becoming a strategic focus for creditors looking to extract the complexity premium embedded in local markets. Atanas Bostandjiev, chairman and founder of Gemcorp Capital Management, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess the opportunities available to institutional investors with perpetual capital. Bostandjiev and Sassower discuss the durability of alpha generation, the formation of behavioral biases and the ability to capitalize on structural inefficiencies across EM.

Supply shocks, inflation risks and AI are reshaping the investment landscape, a theme that Lazard's Chief Investment Officer Eric Van Nostrand discusses with Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Van Nostrand explains why macro matters more to markets now than it did for much of the past two decades, and why investors need to focus more on supply dynamics than traditional demand management. The two examine the inflationary consequences of the conflict in Iran, why Van Nostrand believes the market is underestimating the risk of persistently higher oil prices, and how those pressures complicate the outlook for the Federal Reserve under Chairman Kevin Warsh.  They also discuss how fiscal and local policy affect long-term supply growth, why European equities look more attractive than they have in years, and where Lazard sees opportunities tied to the AI buildout, data-center infrastructure and emerging markets in a weaker-dollar world. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series. 

Recent euro-dollar price action has validated structural euro-dollar bulls, with the case for diversification strategies beyond the dollar still holding as we look to 2H and 2027. Yet this view is increasingly at risk from an evolving cyclical narrative, with an outperforming US economy and the potential for a hawkish tilt from the Federal Reserve likely to revive cyclical euro-dollar bears into 2H. In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Laura Cooper, managing director and head of macro credit at Nuveen, discuss euro-dollar views into 2H. They also explore compelling FX views beyond the greenback, with Cooper highlighting a potentially more supportive context for the Canadian dollar. The FX Moment podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series. Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

“There's such an informational asymmetry between incumbent investors — the direct lenders who are in the deal and the sponsor — and new parties that it can be harder to bridge that bid-ask,” said Ensis Partners Co-Founder Richard Shinder, “Price transparency acts as a signal... and if you don't have that price signal, that can be a deterrent to getting things done.” Shinder shared valuable insights into the rapidly evolving middle-market and private credit restructuring landscape in his conversation with Bloomberg Intelligence's Phil Brendel at the Beard Group Distressed Investing Media Night in New York City on May 19. The discussion delves into asset-liability mismatches, the rising impact of AI and obsolescence risk on technology workouts, pricing transparency challenges and what a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment means for shifting systemic risks.

Oil prices have become the key driver of global rates markets as conflict in the Middle East reshapes inflation expectations and policy outlooks. Matt Hornbach, Morgan Stanley's global head of macro strategy, joins Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist, on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Hornbach explains why energy prices have been the dominant force behind moves in US and global bond markets, why longer-term inflation expectations have remained relatively contained and how the Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh may react differently to oil at $80 vs. $110 a barrel. The two also discuss whether investors are too confident that crude prices will remain structurally elevated even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and what that could mean for Treasury yields and broader asset markets. They also examine spillover from Japan's bond market, the risks around the Bank of Japan and dollar-yen and why upcoming trade negotiations involving the US, Mexico and Canada could become another important source of volatility for global fixed income.

Dispersion is rising across emerging markets, reflecting differences in external balances, policy flexibility and economic proximity to the war in Iran. Pablo Goldberg, EM fixed income portfolio manager at BlackRock, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess institutional positioning and investor sentiment across the asset class, as real yields are attractive and fundamentals remain resilient. Goldberg and Sassower discuss inflation expectations, election risk, rating migration and the policy outlook across EMs amid ongoing developments in the Middle East.

“I've been shocked by the attention the issue as far as my mediating cases that are before me has gotten because in my view it's just a label,” US Bankruptcy Judge Michael Kaplan said, addressing the scrutiny surrounding his role as a mediator in cases pending before him. Bankruptcy judges “have always brought parties into chambers in an effort to settle matters when it's consensual.” In a conversation with Bloomberg Intelligence's Negisa Balluku at the Beard Group's Distressed Investing Media Night on May 19, Judge Kaplan framed bankruptcy judges as trial-level problem solvers, discussed his Multi-Color venue opinion, and raised concerns about the speed and cost of Chapter 11, as well as the weakening effect that liability management exercises can have on future debtors.

“You have a refinancing problem; that's the dynamic that we're in today. With the covenant-lite nature of the loan market, most of these better-quality businesses can orchestrate an extension one time,” said Jason Mudrick, founder and chief investment officer of Mudrick Capital Management. “The problem is when you get to that new post-LME maturity wall, it's going to be much more challenging if we did our jobs right to do another LME.” Bloomberg Intelligence's Phil Brendel and Negisa Balluku sat down with Mudrick at the Beard Group Distressed Investing Media Night on May 19 to discuss the evolving landscape for liability management exercises (LMEs). Mudrick shared his perspective on navigating complex restructurings, the strategic role of litigation and how changing legal loopholes and market dynamics are shifting tactics for distressed investors. He also reflects on high-profile past cases like AMC Entertainment and Party City, detailing how “irrationally high” market caps and management relationships affect investment outcomes.

Rising Treasury yields, war-driven inflation concerns and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve are reshaping the fixed-income outlook. George Catrambone, head of fixed income for the Americas at DWS Group, joins Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist, on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Catrambone discusses why the move higher in long-end Treasury yields has been driven more by oil, inflation expectations and fiscal concerns than by growth, and why he sees the most compelling opportunity in owning the front end of the curve. The two examine Kevin Warsh's arrival as Fed chair, how the balance of hawks and doves on the FOMC could shape the path for rate cuts and whether changes to the Fed's communication framework -- including the future of the dot plot -- are likely. They also discuss how higher deficits, rising debt-service costs and growing bill supply could pressure Treasury issuance and long-dated yields.

“The key to longevity in lending is really avoiding principal loss, minimizing principal loss,” says Richard Miller, chief investment officer of TCW's Private Credit Group. Reduced distress has led to less demand for restructuring and recovery-optimization skill sets in recent years, but “it really feels like in the next four or five [years]... those characteristics are going to be important for performance in this space,” according to Miller. He joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to discuss TCW's suite across direct lending and rescue capital, as well as its strategic partnership with PNC. They also explore appropriate leverage profiles, whether software is uninvestable, having flexibility beyond sponsor-led deals and why newer-vintage direct-lending offerings might be better positioned.

Heightened geopolitical risk is driving asset price fluctuations, as inflation and interest rate uncertainty demands increased focus on risk management and liquidity. Andrew Jackson, head of investments at Vontobel, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess portfolio exposure and investor sentiment across emerging market debt, as the asset class is well positioned to rebound when tensions de-escalate. Jackson and Sassower touch on inflation expectations, credit fundamentals and the policy outlook across EM following the surge in global energy prices. Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

“In the past, I think a lot of times [sponsors] just handed the keys over if they were hopelessly insolvent,” industry veteran David Trucano says. “Now [the market has] basically written, through credit agreements, a call to the equity such that they can extract additional value through the capital structure and preserve value for themselves. And as a fiduciary, they're required to do it.” Bloomberg Intelligence's Phil Brendel and Noel Hebert sit down with Trucano (formerly of BlackRock, Centerbridge, Goldman Sachs SSG and Houlihan Lokey) to trace the trajectory of the distressed debt and restructuring markets over the last 25 years (7:40). From the dot-com bust and the WorldCom fraud to the rise of private credit and modern “creditor-on-creditor violence,” the conversation explores how liability management exercises have evolved and where the next distress cycle is brewing. The podcast concludes (1:19:05) with BI's Negisa Balluku joining Noel and Phil to discuss the latest developments in Spirit Airlines, Telesat, Multi-Color Corp. Ardagh Group, and QVC Group.

Stephen Douglass, chief economist and a member of NISA Investment Advisors' global investment committee, explains why he still sees the US economy as broadly consistent with a soft-landing path once the current oil shock fades, even though the war has complicated the timing of Fed rate cuts. He joined Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief US interest-rate strategist on this edition of Macro Matters. The two discuss Kevin Warsh's arrival as Fed chair, why Douglass expects more incremental than revolutionary change at the central bank and why he thinks any attempt to pair balance-sheet reduction with lower policy rates would be difficult to execute. They also examine NISA's preference for front-end Treasury steepeners over tight credit spreads, the risks posed by higher oil prices, the warning signs coming from the UK gilt market and why the Treasury Department is likely to keep leaning on bill issuance rather than meaningfully increasing coupon supply.

The UK is at the forefront of market headlines amid a political crisis and record gilt yields. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's global head of credit strategy, discusses how credit remains a safe haven in every crisis with Boris Okuliar, chief strategy officer and head of global diversified credit at Corinthia Global Management. They dig deep into the middle-market and private credit universe, covering deal profiles, spread premiums, typical leverage structures, fees and expected investor returns. They also discuss deal quality, expected holding periods, exit strategies and the role of traded credit within portfolios.

In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Jordan Rochester, head of FICC strategy for EMEA at Mizuho Bank, discuss how the evolving UK political dynamics leave sterling exposed in the near term via the potential revival of a negative fiscal premium. Jordan and Audrey also revisit the dollar-yen outlook following the recent Ministry of Finance/Bank of Japan FX intervention and discuss what scenarios could take the pair out of the 155.00-160.00 trading range, with a broadly weaker dollar outlook and/or joint FX intervention — with the US — the best contenders to trigger a sustainable push lower in the currency pair.

Bloomberg Intelligence's chief US interest-rate strategist Ira Jersey lays out his latest views on the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury market in this solo Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Jersey discusses why he expects the Fed to remain on hold for at least the next several months, even after Jay Powell's departure and Kevin Warsh's expected arrival as chair. He examines the significance of recent FOMC dissents, the challenges Warsh may face in building support for rate cuts, and why shrinking the balance sheet while easing policy could prove difficult without broader changes to bank regulation. Jersey also explains how uneven job growth, inflation expectations and developments in oil prices could shape the path of policy and rates. He reviews his outlook for the Treasury curve, including why he expects the long end to remain rangebound and the front end to be driven by inflation breakevens and Fed expectations. Jersey closes with his view that Treasury coupon issuance will remain manageable through continued reliance on Treasury bills.

“We always want to be big enough in any given strategy that we're relevant to the market, relevant to our counterparties,” says Grant Nachman, Shorecliff Asset Management's CIO and CEO. “But we always want to try to be nimble enough that we don't have to own everything.” Nachman joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to discuss Shorecliff's “full-cycle credit” approach, new challenges in managing a firm as assets and headcount scale, and how to stay disciplined amid growth. They also explore the importance of relationships, relative value between broadly syndicated loans and high yield corporate bonds, and whether private credit's consolidation phase will affect tradeable markets.

In this edition of All Options Considered, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu discusses cross-asset volatility, including how markets were largely driven by the same oil-related macro shock, with equities marked by sharp rallies and slower pullbacks. He also covers this week's Japanese FX intervention and the rates outlook after key policy decisions.

A changing Federal Reserve, tight credit spreads and renewed opportunities in securitized markets are reshaping the fixed-income outlook. Russ Brownback, BlackRock's deputy CIO of global fixed income and manager of the Strategic Income Opportunities Fund, joins Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Brownback discusses what Kevin Warsh's expected arrival as Fed chair could mean for policy, why he sees balance-sheet changes happening only gradually, and how public debate among policy makers reflects the complexity of the current economic environment. The two explore where Brownback sees the best opportunities across global fixed income, from carry trades and diversified credit portfolios to structured products such as commercial mortgage-backed securities, asset-backed securities, and non-agency mortgages. They also discuss relative value in Europe, improving prospects in emerging markets and why large US fiscal deficits are a market risk worth monitoring, but not yet a solvency concern.

Despite the war-induced increase in macroeconomic uncertainty, investors are returning to emerging market fixed income as the universe of investible alpha opportunities continues to expand. Arif Joshi, senior managing director and EM fixed income portfolio manager at Bramshill Investments, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess the structural backdrop as focus shifts to supply shortages across the energy complex. Joshi and Sassower touch on policy, positioning and performance across EM as the war in Iran persists.

New York's shifting political environment has significant implications for the city's finances and municipal bond portfolios. In this episode of the Masters of the Muniverse podcast, Pat Luby, head of municipal research and senior municipal strategist at CreditSights, joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Matthew Gastall, head of municipal research and strategy, and BI senior associate Karen Altamirano. Luby also shares his views on the growing importance of muni ETFs, new-issue volume trends, and what they could mean for issuers and investors.

Funding markets have remained remarkably calm even as investors continue to debate risks around Federal Reserve balance-sheet policy and the outlook for repo. Jerome Schneider, managing director at Pimco and head of short-term portfolio management and funding, joins Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist, and Will Hoffman, BI US and Canadian rates strategist, on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Schneider discusses why the funding backdrop looks more resilient than in past stress episodes, how the Fed's backstops have changed the market's risk profile and where he still sees pockets of illiquidity. The three also examine the tradeoffs between money-market funds and ultra-short strategies, how investors are using front-end products during bouts of volatility and what mandatory central clearing could mean for repo market structure. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

Global credit risk has been repriced wider and tighter by the Iran war and strategic insights are essential for outperformance. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's global head of credit strategy, hosts BI's global credit strategy team to highlight worldwide research, data and views. Tim Tan and Jason Lee (Asia), Basel Al-Waqayan (Middle East), Reto Bachmann (Structured Credit), Heema Patel (Europe) and Sam Geier (US) share takeaways on their recent research, relative value and major themes shaping their regions. Access their research on the Bloomberg Terminal at BI STRTA, BI STRTE, BI STRTN and BI EMFIG. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. 

Creditors are returning to emerging market fixed income as supply-demand technicals are supportive, rating momentum is positive and real-yield differentials are wide. Thys Louw, emerging market fixed income portfolio manager at Ninety One, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief EM fixed income strategist, to discuss alpha potential in EM hard- and local-currency debt. Louw and Sassower assess the allocation gap among institutional investors and the effect of rising cross-asset correlations on EM fixed income returns.

“The market reaction has been very measured. Spreads have clearly moved in response to changes in fiscal outlooks and ratings,” says Patrick Drum, Saturna Capital's fixed-income lead and portfolio manager, discussing the impact of current events in the Middle East on sukuk and the Islamic finance market. It's “not so much the conflict itself. Tension is really back to the basics of balance sheet.” Drum joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert on the latest Credit Crunch podcast to examine sukuk, the market's size, composition and growth, and the economic backdrop that has helped drive it beyond $1 trillion. The episode also covers risk-adjusted returns, underlying assets and his view of the market's continued evolution. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

Credit and high yield had first quarter losses due to the Iran war impact, especially on rates. Will 2Q revert those losses, and why? Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence global head of credit strategy, discusses the results of the BI 2Q26 Investor Survey and the market outlook with Manuel Schoeffler, Head of High Yield at Deka Investment GmbH. They discuss valuations and central bank actions, along with distress and default rates. This podcast also covers survey results on investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, supply forecasts and relative value across asset classes (high grade vs. junk), geography (Europe vs. US), ratings and sectors.

“Troubled businesses don't turn around on a dime. They took years to get messed up. They got worse through the restructuring when they were capital-starved,” observed Jon F. Weber, founder of Jon F Weber & Co. “A lender should not have the expectation that, upon pouring in liquidity and improving the capital structure, they're going to immediately improve. We're in the reality business... We have to establish what can be realistically achieved with a 70%-80% probability and align awards, budgets and all of those things around those outcomes.” Weber and Jon F Weber & Co. board director Alvaro Aguirre shared their well-honed insights with Bloomberg Intelligence's Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel, as they delved into their recent paper, “From Creditor to Owner: Adapting an Ownership Playbook.” They highlight the need for lenders to act swiftly and decisively to prepare for potential ownership, as well as the common pitfalls that can arise during this transition. The podcast concludes (1:02:40) with BI's Noel Hebert joining Balluku and Brendel to discuss the latest developments in Hertz, First Brands, New Fortress Energy, Multi-Color Corp., Serta and Telesat. JFW &Co.'s paper may be found here: https://jonfweber.com/thought-leadership/f/from-creditor-to-owner-adopting-an-ownership-playbook

The Federal Reserve still has an easing bias and may lower rates another 50 bps this year, says Vincent Reinhart, chief economist for BNY Investments, on this edition of Macro Matters in the FICC Focus podcast series. Reinhart joins host Ira Jersey, chief US interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, to discuss BNY Investments' view on the economy and central bank actions as uncertainty remains high around energy prices. The two discuss the economic backdrop and how the path of nominal growth may remain steady even as the inflation/real growth mix shifts. Reinhart also discusses the cadence of work while he was with the Fed's Monetary Affairs staff and as secretary of the Federal Open Market Committee.

The US-Iran ceasefire and associated relief in risk aversion and pullback in oil prices may be a first step out of the sterling-dollar bear cycle of the past few weeks. There will be cyclical relief as the market adjusts back to less hawkish Bank of England rate expectations, which were hurting the pound via the stagflation narrative. Structural relief may also emerge, as the expected monetary-fiscal policy mix implies less reliance on fiscal stimulus to support the economy and reduces fiscal credibility concerns that have become a constant consideration for sterling. In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Bloomberg Economics Chief UK Economist Dan Hanson discuss the U-turn in Bank of England rate and growth expectations in the context of the Iran conflict, fiscal policy, as well as how UK politics could shape sterling's near- to mid-term dynamics.

Sovereign balance sheets should come under renewed pressure as the war-induced oil shock forces EM governments to take extraordinary measures aimed at actively defending their domestic economies. Fabio Natalucci, CEO of the Andersen Institute for Finance & Economics, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess the risks facing EM creditors as the war in Iran endures. Natalucci and Sassower differentiate between level and trend when discussing the medium-term impact on EM growth and inflation expectations, with potential for yields to decline once recession probabilities reach critical mass.

Wider spreads and credit enhancement causing upgrades in auto asset-backed securities reduces the sector's risk against similarly rated and maturity corporate debt, says Rod Chadehumbe, Bloomberg Intelligence ABS Strategist. Chadehumbe joins host Ira Jersey, BI's US Rates Strategist to discuss the findings from the first ABS Primer on available on the terminal. Though spreads are tight compared to the five-year average, inflation may not cause spreads to widen. The note also makes the case for Auto ABS against similarly rated and maturity corporate debt. Chadehumbe isn't concerned about the current level of subprime delinquencies given the credit enhancement these structures have, but is concerned with the job market and what happens if delinquencies rise much further. 

Cross-asset markets are under stress given the bi-modal risks of de-escalation vs. prolonged conflict. This edition of All Options Considered podcast discusses the probability distribution around the outcomes of the Iran war and markets. BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Edward Fishman, author of Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare and Senior Fellow at Council on Foreign Relations.

“Technicals for high yield post-Covid have been very strong, with pretty limited net new supply, minimal downgrades, strong demand given elevated base rates and pretty reasonable credit spread,” says John McClain, Goldman Sachs Asset Management's global co-head of High Yield and Bank Loans. “We're seeing some net new supply from areas like data-center debt,” and “large LBO bonds that are coming over the next couple of weeks, in conjunction with a couple of decent sized cap stacks migrating to high yield will probably lead to some indigestion in the marketplace.” McClain joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert on the latest Credit Crunch podcast to discuss data-center vs. software issuance, private credit knock-on effects and where to find value in the current market. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.