FICC Focus

“LLMs give us the opportunity to kind of rethink how much expected skill we can get out of our tools and techniques,” says Jeffrey Rosenberg, managing director and senior fixed income portfolio manager for BlackRock Systematic. “If deep fundamental value investing is dedicating 10,000 hours to create ... concentrated portfolios based on an expectation of high degrees of skill, maybe we can do something similar because the technology allows us to.” This is an evolution from a model focused on maximizing small advantages, according to Rosenberg, who joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast. The two discuss rates decorrelation, systematic's peanut-butter-cup moment and iShares Systematic Alternatives Active ETF (IALT), the company's latest liquid systematic-strategy offering. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

Emerging market credit index futures improve liquidity and balance-sheet efficiency, yet they also open the door to a wider range of tactical and relative-value trading opportunities. Lee Bartholomew, global head of derivative markets at Deutsche Börse, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess the evolution of Eurex-listed EM credit index futures, with a focus on market structure and investor adoption. Bartholomew and Sassower discuss the potential for portfolio hedging, smart-beta overlays, basis trading and short positioning, as the universe of exchange-traded and unfunded EM credit exposure evolves.

With Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Federal Reserve chair behind him, the discourse can move to what it signals for monetary policy. Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist Anna Wong joins Ira Jersey on this edition of Macro Matters and argues that while Warsh avoided explicit forward guidance, his emphasis was on price stability, skepticism toward forecast precision and support for a shorter policy statement all point to a more hawkish lean than many investors expected.  They discuss whether Warsh is pushing the Fed back toward a more Greenspan-like communication style, why she believes the dot plot could eventually disappear in favor of broader forecast ranges, and how task forces on the balance sheet, inflation and data reliability could shape future policy debates. They also examine the outlook for inflation and the labor market, why Wong sees a rate hike this year as a mistake given her expectation for headline and core PCE to fall back toward target, and how Bloomberg Intelligence views current SOFR futures pricing as internally inconsistent. The episode closes with a discussion of the global backdrop, including softer oil prices, tighter policy abroad and the implications for the dollar and the US disinflation outlook. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

This edition of the All Options Considered podcast features a recording from the Bloomberg Volatility Forum held in Singapore on June 3. Bloomberg Intelligence's Alison Williams, head of global strategy, delivers opening remarks, followed by a keynote presentation from Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu on multi-asset volatility strategy. The program also includes a panel discussion on derivatives markets featuring Oliver Chan, portfolio manager at Capula Investment Management; Stéphane Martin, APAC head of derivatives institutional sales at Optiver; and Ivan Nurminsky, portfolio manager at Dymon Asia. In addition, Diego Parrilla, chief investment officer at Quadriga Asset Managers, discusses “The Energy World Is Flat 2.0.” Both sessions are moderated by Lianting Tu, managing editor for Asia-Pacific equities at Bloomberg News. The All Options Considered podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series. 

“If there's kind of a squeamishness about forum shopping in the US, there's a little...it's just overseas, there's none at all,” observed Harvard Law Professor Jared Ellias. “There's a great deal of pride and interest in building...an insolvency system that is equal and in some ways more useful than what they have in the United States.” Ellias sat down with Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel to discuss his new paper, “The Global Law of Debt,” co-authored with Narine Lalafaryan. Ellias traces how the historical entanglement of the New York and London debt markets has evolved into a highly competitive, globalized ecosystem where borrowers now forum-shop across borders to maximize flexibility and bypass traditional constraints like Chapter 11's absolute-priority rule. The conversation dives into the export of aggressive liability management exercises (LMEs), the implementation of hybrid “Frankenstein” debt documents and how foreign-court systems relish taking market share from the US. The podcast concludes (1:05:40) with BI's Noel Hebert joining Negisa and Phil to discuss the latest developments in First Brands Group, Optimum Communications, QVC Group and Trinseo. Link to referenced paper: https://bankruptcyroundtable.law.harvard.edu/2026/03/24/the-global-law-of-debt/

JPMorgan Asset Management sees a resilient economy facing multiple supply shocks, with inflation still largely supply-led and the Federal Reserve likely to remain on hold for now. Priya Misra, fixed-income portfolio manager at the firm and a manager of the JPMorgan Core Plus Bond ETF (JCPB Equity), joins Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist, on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast to explain how she defines the “plus” in core-plus investing, from macro duration and curve views to allocations across securitized credit, high yield and mortgage convexity management. She also discusses what Kevin Warsh's arrival as Fed chair could mean for communication policy and the dot plot, arguing that investors still need enough Fed transparency to understand each official's reaction function. The two examine where she sees value across fixed income, including high-quality spread product, duration in the five- to 10-year sector as a hedge and select structured-credit opportunities such as agency CMBS and non-agency mortgage exposure over parts of the agency RMBS market. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

Credit continues to rally despite the lack of a US-Iran peace deal, and it has served as a safe haven relative to rates. In this Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, global head of credit strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Souheir Asba, credit portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein, discuss how hyperscaler issuance and upcoming IPOs could affect the credit landscape through index and portfolio changes, and how investors should position for this wave of supply. They also compare credit performance with rates since the Iran war began, assess relative value across investment-grade, high-yield and rates markets and share sector outlooks and views on AT1s and corporate hybrids. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Emerging markets are becoming a strategic focus for creditors looking to extract the complexity premium embedded in local markets. Atanas Bostandjiev, chairman and founder of Gemcorp Capital Management, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess the opportunities available to institutional investors with perpetual capital. Bostandjiev and Sassower discuss the durability of alpha generation, the formation of behavioral biases and the ability to capitalize on structural inefficiencies across EM.

Supply shocks, inflation risks and AI are reshaping the investment landscape, a theme that Lazard's Chief Investment Officer Eric Van Nostrand discusses with Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Van Nostrand explains why macro matters more to markets now than it did for much of the past two decades, and why investors need to focus more on supply dynamics than traditional demand management. The two examine the inflationary consequences of the conflict in Iran, why Van Nostrand believes the market is underestimating the risk of persistently higher oil prices, and how those pressures complicate the outlook for the Federal Reserve under Chairman Kevin Warsh.  They also discuss how fiscal and local policy affect long-term supply growth, why European equities look more attractive than they have in years, and where Lazard sees opportunities tied to the AI buildout, data-center infrastructure and emerging markets in a weaker-dollar world. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series. 

Recent euro-dollar price action has validated structural euro-dollar bulls, with the case for diversification strategies beyond the dollar still holding as we look to 2H and 2027. Yet this view is increasingly at risk from an evolving cyclical narrative, with an outperforming US economy and the potential for a hawkish tilt from the Federal Reserve likely to revive cyclical euro-dollar bears into 2H. In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Laura Cooper, managing director and head of macro credit at Nuveen, discuss euro-dollar views into 2H. They also explore compelling FX views beyond the greenback, with Cooper highlighting a potentially more supportive context for the Canadian dollar. The FX Moment podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series. Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

“There's such an informational asymmetry between incumbent investors — the direct lenders who are in the deal and the sponsor — and new parties that it can be harder to bridge that bid-ask,” said Ensis Partners Co-Founder Richard Shinder, “Price transparency acts as a signal... and if you don't have that price signal, that can be a deterrent to getting things done.” Shinder shared valuable insights into the rapidly evolving middle-market and private credit restructuring landscape in his conversation with Bloomberg Intelligence's Phil Brendel at the Beard Group Distressed Investing Media Night in New York City on May 19. The discussion delves into asset-liability mismatches, the rising impact of AI and obsolescence risk on technology workouts, pricing transparency challenges and what a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment means for shifting systemic risks.

Oil prices have become the key driver of global rates markets as conflict in the Middle East reshapes inflation expectations and policy outlooks. Matt Hornbach, Morgan Stanley's global head of macro strategy, joins Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist, on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Hornbach explains why energy prices have been the dominant force behind moves in US and global bond markets, why longer-term inflation expectations have remained relatively contained and how the Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh may react differently to oil at $80 vs. $110 a barrel. The two also discuss whether investors are too confident that crude prices will remain structurally elevated even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and what that could mean for Treasury yields and broader asset markets. They also examine spillover from Japan's bond market, the risks around the Bank of Japan and dollar-yen and why upcoming trade negotiations involving the US, Mexico and Canada could become another important source of volatility for global fixed income.

Dispersion is rising across emerging markets, reflecting differences in external balances, policy flexibility and economic proximity to the war in Iran. Pablo Goldberg, EM fixed income portfolio manager at BlackRock, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess institutional positioning and investor sentiment across the asset class, as real yields are attractive and fundamentals remain resilient. Goldberg and Sassower discuss inflation expectations, election risk, rating migration and the policy outlook across EMs amid ongoing developments in the Middle East.

“I've been shocked by the attention the issue as far as my mediating cases that are before me has gotten because in my view it's just a label,” US Bankruptcy Judge Michael Kaplan said, addressing the scrutiny surrounding his role as a mediator in cases pending before him. Bankruptcy judges “have always brought parties into chambers in an effort to settle matters when it's consensual.” In a conversation with Bloomberg Intelligence's Negisa Balluku at the Beard Group's Distressed Investing Media Night on May 19, Judge Kaplan framed bankruptcy judges as trial-level problem solvers, discussed his Multi-Color venue opinion, and raised concerns about the speed and cost of Chapter 11, as well as the weakening effect that liability management exercises can have on future debtors.

“You have a refinancing problem; that's the dynamic that we're in today. With the covenant-lite nature of the loan market, most of these better-quality businesses can orchestrate an extension one time,” said Jason Mudrick, founder and chief investment officer of Mudrick Capital Management. “The problem is when you get to that new post-LME maturity wall, it's going to be much more challenging if we did our jobs right to do another LME.” Bloomberg Intelligence's Phil Brendel and Negisa Balluku sat down with Mudrick at the Beard Group Distressed Investing Media Night on May 19 to discuss the evolving landscape for liability management exercises (LMEs). Mudrick shared his perspective on navigating complex restructurings, the strategic role of litigation and how changing legal loopholes and market dynamics are shifting tactics for distressed investors. He also reflects on high-profile past cases like AMC Entertainment and Party City, detailing how “irrationally high” market caps and management relationships affect investment outcomes.

Rising Treasury yields, war-driven inflation concerns and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve are reshaping the fixed-income outlook. George Catrambone, head of fixed income for the Americas at DWS Group, joins Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist, on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Catrambone discusses why the move higher in long-end Treasury yields has been driven more by oil, inflation expectations and fiscal concerns than by growth, and why he sees the most compelling opportunity in owning the front end of the curve. The two examine Kevin Warsh's arrival as Fed chair, how the balance of hawks and doves on the FOMC could shape the path for rate cuts and whether changes to the Fed's communication framework -- including the future of the dot plot -- are likely. They also discuss how higher deficits, rising debt-service costs and growing bill supply could pressure Treasury issuance and long-dated yields.

“The key to longevity in lending is really avoiding principal loss, minimizing principal loss,” says Richard Miller, chief investment officer of TCW's Private Credit Group. Reduced distress has led to less demand for restructuring and recovery-optimization skill sets in recent years, but “it really feels like in the next four or five [years]... those characteristics are going to be important for performance in this space,” according to Miller. He joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to discuss TCW's suite across direct lending and rescue capital, as well as its strategic partnership with PNC. They also explore appropriate leverage profiles, whether software is uninvestable, having flexibility beyond sponsor-led deals and why newer-vintage direct-lending offerings might be better positioned.

Heightened geopolitical risk is driving asset price fluctuations, as inflation and interest rate uncertainty demands increased focus on risk management and liquidity. Andrew Jackson, head of investments at Vontobel, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess portfolio exposure and investor sentiment across emerging market debt, as the asset class is well positioned to rebound when tensions de-escalate. Jackson and Sassower touch on inflation expectations, credit fundamentals and the policy outlook across EM following the surge in global energy prices. Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

“In the past, I think a lot of times [sponsors] just handed the keys over if they were hopelessly insolvent,” industry veteran David Trucano says. “Now [the market has] basically written, through credit agreements, a call to the equity such that they can extract additional value through the capital structure and preserve value for themselves. And as a fiduciary, they're required to do it.” Bloomberg Intelligence's Phil Brendel and Noel Hebert sit down with Trucano (formerly of BlackRock, Centerbridge, Goldman Sachs SSG and Houlihan Lokey) to trace the trajectory of the distressed debt and restructuring markets over the last 25 years (7:40). From the dot-com bust and the WorldCom fraud to the rise of private credit and modern “creditor-on-creditor violence,” the conversation explores how liability management exercises have evolved and where the next distress cycle is brewing. The podcast concludes (1:19:05) with BI's Negisa Balluku joining Noel and Phil to discuss the latest developments in Spirit Airlines, Telesat, Multi-Color Corp. Ardagh Group, and QVC Group.

Stephen Douglass, chief economist and a member of NISA Investment Advisors' global investment committee, explains why he still sees the US economy as broadly consistent with a soft-landing path once the current oil shock fades, even though the war has complicated the timing of Fed rate cuts. He joined Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief US interest-rate strategist on this edition of Macro Matters. The two discuss Kevin Warsh's arrival as Fed chair, why Douglass expects more incremental than revolutionary change at the central bank and why he thinks any attempt to pair balance-sheet reduction with lower policy rates would be difficult to execute. They also examine NISA's preference for front-end Treasury steepeners over tight credit spreads, the risks posed by higher oil prices, the warning signs coming from the UK gilt market and why the Treasury Department is likely to keep leaning on bill issuance rather than meaningfully increasing coupon supply.

The UK is at the forefront of market headlines amid a political crisis and record gilt yields. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's global head of credit strategy, discusses how credit remains a safe haven in every crisis with Boris Okuliar, chief strategy officer and head of global diversified credit at Corinthia Global Management. They dig deep into the middle-market and private credit universe, covering deal profiles, spread premiums, typical leverage structures, fees and expected investor returns. They also discuss deal quality, expected holding periods, exit strategies and the role of traded credit within portfolios.

In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Jordan Rochester, head of FICC strategy for EMEA at Mizuho Bank, discuss how the evolving UK political dynamics leave sterling exposed in the near term via the potential revival of a negative fiscal premium. Jordan and Audrey also revisit the dollar-yen outlook following the recent Ministry of Finance/Bank of Japan FX intervention and discuss what scenarios could take the pair out of the 155.00-160.00 trading range, with a broadly weaker dollar outlook and/or joint FX intervention — with the US — the best contenders to trigger a sustainable push lower in the currency pair.

Bloomberg Intelligence's chief US interest-rate strategist Ira Jersey lays out his latest views on the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury market in this solo Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Jersey discusses why he expects the Fed to remain on hold for at least the next several months, even after Jay Powell's departure and Kevin Warsh's expected arrival as chair. He examines the significance of recent FOMC dissents, the challenges Warsh may face in building support for rate cuts, and why shrinking the balance sheet while easing policy could prove difficult without broader changes to bank regulation. Jersey also explains how uneven job growth, inflation expectations and developments in oil prices could shape the path of policy and rates. He reviews his outlook for the Treasury curve, including why he expects the long end to remain rangebound and the front end to be driven by inflation breakevens and Fed expectations. Jersey closes with his view that Treasury coupon issuance will remain manageable through continued reliance on Treasury bills.

“We always want to be big enough in any given strategy that we're relevant to the market, relevant to our counterparties,” says Grant Nachman, Shorecliff Asset Management's CIO and CEO. “But we always want to try to be nimble enough that we don't have to own everything.” Nachman joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to discuss Shorecliff's “full-cycle credit” approach, new challenges in managing a firm as assets and headcount scale, and how to stay disciplined amid growth. They also explore the importance of relationships, relative value between broadly syndicated loans and high yield corporate bonds, and whether private credit's consolidation phase will affect tradeable markets.

In this edition of All Options Considered, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu discusses cross-asset volatility, including how markets were largely driven by the same oil-related macro shock, with equities marked by sharp rallies and slower pullbacks. He also covers this week's Japanese FX intervention and the rates outlook after key policy decisions.

A changing Federal Reserve, tight credit spreads and renewed opportunities in securitized markets are reshaping the fixed-income outlook. Russ Brownback, BlackRock's deputy CIO of global fixed income and manager of the Strategic Income Opportunities Fund, joins Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Brownback discusses what Kevin Warsh's expected arrival as Fed chair could mean for policy, why he sees balance-sheet changes happening only gradually, and how public debate among policy makers reflects the complexity of the current economic environment. The two explore where Brownback sees the best opportunities across global fixed income, from carry trades and diversified credit portfolios to structured products such as commercial mortgage-backed securities, asset-backed securities, and non-agency mortgages. They also discuss relative value in Europe, improving prospects in emerging markets and why large US fiscal deficits are a market risk worth monitoring, but not yet a solvency concern.

Despite the war-induced increase in macroeconomic uncertainty, investors are returning to emerging market fixed income as the universe of investible alpha opportunities continues to expand. Arif Joshi, senior managing director and EM fixed income portfolio manager at Bramshill Investments, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess the structural backdrop as focus shifts to supply shortages across the energy complex. Joshi and Sassower touch on policy, positioning and performance across EM as the war in Iran persists.

New York's shifting political environment has significant implications for the city's finances and municipal bond portfolios. In this episode of the Masters of the Muniverse podcast, Pat Luby, head of municipal research and senior municipal strategist at CreditSights, joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Matthew Gastall, head of municipal research and strategy, and BI senior associate Karen Altamirano. Luby also shares his views on the growing importance of muni ETFs, new-issue volume trends, and what they could mean for issuers and investors.

Funding markets have remained remarkably calm even as investors continue to debate risks around Federal Reserve balance-sheet policy and the outlook for repo. Jerome Schneider, managing director at Pimco and head of short-term portfolio management and funding, joins Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist, and Will Hoffman, BI US and Canadian rates strategist, on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Schneider discusses why the funding backdrop looks more resilient than in past stress episodes, how the Fed's backstops have changed the market's risk profile and where he still sees pockets of illiquidity. The three also examine the tradeoffs between money-market funds and ultra-short strategies, how investors are using front-end products during bouts of volatility and what mandatory central clearing could mean for repo market structure. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

Global credit risk has been repriced wider and tighter by the Iran war and strategic insights are essential for outperformance. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's global head of credit strategy, hosts BI's global credit strategy team to highlight worldwide research, data and views. Tim Tan and Jason Lee (Asia), Basel Al-Waqayan (Middle East), Reto Bachmann (Structured Credit), Heema Patel (Europe) and Sam Geier (US) share takeaways on their recent research, relative value and major themes shaping their regions. Access their research on the Bloomberg Terminal at BI STRTA, BI STRTE, BI STRTN and BI EMFIG. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. 

Creditors are returning to emerging market fixed income as supply-demand technicals are supportive, rating momentum is positive and real-yield differentials are wide. Thys Louw, emerging market fixed income portfolio manager at Ninety One, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief EM fixed income strategist, to discuss alpha potential in EM hard- and local-currency debt. Louw and Sassower assess the allocation gap among institutional investors and the effect of rising cross-asset correlations on EM fixed income returns.

“The market reaction has been very measured. Spreads have clearly moved in response to changes in fiscal outlooks and ratings,” says Patrick Drum, Saturna Capital's fixed-income lead and portfolio manager, discussing the impact of current events in the Middle East on sukuk and the Islamic finance market. It's “not so much the conflict itself. Tension is really back to the basics of balance sheet.” Drum joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert on the latest Credit Crunch podcast to examine sukuk, the market's size, composition and growth, and the economic backdrop that has helped drive it beyond $1 trillion. The episode also covers risk-adjusted returns, underlying assets and his view of the market's continued evolution. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

Credit and high yield had first quarter losses due to the Iran war impact, especially on rates. Will 2Q revert those losses, and why? Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence global head of credit strategy, discusses the results of the BI 2Q26 Investor Survey and the market outlook with Manuel Schoeffler, Head of High Yield at Deka Investment GmbH. They discuss valuations and central bank actions, along with distress and default rates. This podcast also covers survey results on investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, supply forecasts and relative value across asset classes (high grade vs. junk), geography (Europe vs. US), ratings and sectors.

“Troubled businesses don't turn around on a dime. They took years to get messed up. They got worse through the restructuring when they were capital-starved,” observed Jon F. Weber, founder of Jon F Weber & Co. “A lender should not have the expectation that, upon pouring in liquidity and improving the capital structure, they're going to immediately improve. We're in the reality business... We have to establish what can be realistically achieved with a 70%-80% probability and align awards, budgets and all of those things around those outcomes.” Weber and Jon F Weber & Co. board director Alvaro Aguirre shared their well-honed insights with Bloomberg Intelligence's Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel, as they delved into their recent paper, “From Creditor to Owner: Adapting an Ownership Playbook.” They highlight the need for lenders to act swiftly and decisively to prepare for potential ownership, as well as the common pitfalls that can arise during this transition. The podcast concludes (1:02:40) with BI's Noel Hebert joining Balluku and Brendel to discuss the latest developments in Hertz, First Brands, New Fortress Energy, Multi-Color Corp., Serta and Telesat. JFW &Co.'s paper may be found here: https://jonfweber.com/thought-leadership/f/from-creditor-to-owner-adopting-an-ownership-playbook

The Federal Reserve still has an easing bias and may lower rates another 50 bps this year, says Vincent Reinhart, chief economist for BNY Investments, on this edition of Macro Matters in the FICC Focus podcast series. Reinhart joins host Ira Jersey, chief US interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, to discuss BNY Investments' view on the economy and central bank actions as uncertainty remains high around energy prices. The two discuss the economic backdrop and how the path of nominal growth may remain steady even as the inflation/real growth mix shifts. Reinhart also discusses the cadence of work while he was with the Fed's Monetary Affairs staff and as secretary of the Federal Open Market Committee.

The US-Iran ceasefire and associated relief in risk aversion and pullback in oil prices may be a first step out of the sterling-dollar bear cycle of the past few weeks. There will be cyclical relief as the market adjusts back to less hawkish Bank of England rate expectations, which were hurting the pound via the stagflation narrative. Structural relief may also emerge, as the expected monetary-fiscal policy mix implies less reliance on fiscal stimulus to support the economy and reduces fiscal credibility concerns that have become a constant consideration for sterling. In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Bloomberg Economics Chief UK Economist Dan Hanson discuss the U-turn in Bank of England rate and growth expectations in the context of the Iran conflict, fiscal policy, as well as how UK politics could shape sterling's near- to mid-term dynamics.

Sovereign balance sheets should come under renewed pressure as the war-induced oil shock forces EM governments to take extraordinary measures aimed at actively defending their domestic economies. Fabio Natalucci, CEO of the Andersen Institute for Finance & Economics, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess the risks facing EM creditors as the war in Iran endures. Natalucci and Sassower differentiate between level and trend when discussing the medium-term impact on EM growth and inflation expectations, with potential for yields to decline once recession probabilities reach critical mass.

Wider spreads and credit enhancement causing upgrades in auto asset-backed securities reduces the sector's risk against similarly rated and maturity corporate debt, says Rod Chadehumbe, Bloomberg Intelligence ABS Strategist. Chadehumbe joins host Ira Jersey, BI's US Rates Strategist to discuss the findings from the first ABS Primer on available on the terminal. Though spreads are tight compared to the five-year average, inflation may not cause spreads to widen. The note also makes the case for Auto ABS against similarly rated and maturity corporate debt. Chadehumbe isn't concerned about the current level of subprime delinquencies given the credit enhancement these structures have, but is concerned with the job market and what happens if delinquencies rise much further. 

Cross-asset markets are under stress given the bi-modal risks of de-escalation vs. prolonged conflict. This edition of All Options Considered podcast discusses the probability distribution around the outcomes of the Iran war and markets. BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Edward Fishman, author of Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare and Senior Fellow at Council on Foreign Relations.

“Technicals for high yield post-Covid have been very strong, with pretty limited net new supply, minimal downgrades, strong demand given elevated base rates and pretty reasonable credit spread,” says John McClain, Goldman Sachs Asset Management's global co-head of High Yield and Bank Loans. “We're seeing some net new supply from areas like data-center debt,” and “large LBO bonds that are coming over the next couple of weeks, in conjunction with a couple of decent sized cap stacks migrating to high yield will probably lead to some indigestion in the marketplace.” McClain joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert on the latest Credit Crunch podcast to discuss data-center vs. software issuance, private credit knock-on effects and where to find value in the current market. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

“The thesis of AI is very big. It's probably one of the largest events in at least my lifetime,” says Monroe President Zia Uddin, discussing the creditor concerns about how AI may affect borrowers. “But what ends up happening is everyone kind of throws the baby out with the bathwater.” Uddin joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert on the latest episode of Credit Crunch to talk about why not all software is created equal when it comes to AI exposure, as well as the benefits of originating deals and having navigated prior cycles when it comes to responding to market volatility. Uddin also discusses the large domestic opportunity, growth areas for the firm, the current interest rate climate, the varied risk profiles of large vs. mid-market lenders and retail vs. institutional needs.

The atmosphere around the Federal Reserve has evolved as Chair Jerome Powell has grown more comfortable in press conferences, even amid legal and political pressure. Michael McKee, Bloomberg News international economics and policy correspondent, joins Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist, and Will Hoffman, BI US and Canadian rates strategist, on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series to discuss this and other issues. The conversation explores the future of Fed communications, including debate over the SEP and dot plot, whether a Kevin Warsh chairmanship could bring fewer public remarks from officials, and what changes might be realistic for the balance sheet, bank regulation and the Fed's broader mandate. They also examine dissents at the FOMC, how different types of policymakers adapt once inside the institution, and why this year's semiannual monetary policy testimony may not occur before Powell leaves office.

“What's different in private credit versus large broadly syndicated loans is in private credit they're very focused on the ability to incur additional debt, the ability to distribute assets or distribute money through dividends or otherwise,” says Stephen Boyko, partner and co-founder of Proskauer's Private Credit Group. “They're also incredibly concerned about the flexibility of the documents.” Boyko joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert on the latest episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to discuss the evolution of private credit and private credit documentation, why current headlines are inconsistent with market trends and lender protections. The two also discuss key covenants, the incidence of default and the growing bias toward higher-Ebitda borrowers. 

“The theme that we're seeing a lot of is, do we do the same old LME that we would have done six months ago or a year ago, or should we do more of a comprehensive fixing of the balance sheet once?” says Brian Resnick, a restructuring partner and head of Davis Polk's Liability Management & Special Opportunities practice, discussing trends in liability management strategies as borrowers prepare for looming 2028 debt maturities. On this episode of the State of Distressed Debt podcast, Resnick joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel to explore the growing consideration of more aggressive, one-shot deleveraging transactions and the advantages for lenders within the “in-crowd.” They also discuss the implications of banks expanding into private credit, what happens if anti-cooperation language gains traction, and the increasing sophistication of disqualified lender provisions. The podcast was recorded at the 22nd annual Wharton Restructuring & Distressed Investing Conference.

The soaring short-term yields in the UK may be somewhat overdone, says Bloomberg Intelligence European Rates Strategist Huw Worthington on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series. BI's US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey and Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist Anna Wong joined him on a webinar the morning of March 19 to discuss the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and the European Central Bank meetings and the ramifications for rate markets. The trio also discuss some scenarios that were asked during the live Q&A portion of the webinar, and highlight how oil is currently forcing central banks to rethink inflation forecasts. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

Emerging market central banks have adopted a hawkish bias following the war-induced oil shock, yet fiscal concerns could weigh on domestic currencies as local governments attempt to mitigate the negative impact of rising energy prices. Cem Karacadag, head of global sovereign debt at Barings, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief EM fixed income strategist, on this episode of the EM Lens podcast to assess portfolio risk, country exposure and institutional interest in the wake of the war in Iran. Karacadag and Sassower discuss issues ranging from curve shape and currency volatility to spread resilience and safe-haven positioning.

“We traditionally have turned over about 60% of the portfolio per year,” says AGL Credit Management's Chief Operating Officer Wynne Comer, discussing the company's approach to managing collateralized loan obligations. “That's 30% through prepayments, 30% through active management.” Comer joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert on the latest episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to discuss the evolution of the CLO market past and present, her transition from banking into asset management, AGL's extension into private credit and the outlook for continued growth. Comer also explores due diligence, the state of regulation, where bonds play in the CLO market and factoring for AI. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

Emerging market governments are implementing extraordinary measures to mitigate the impact of rising energy prices, as the war-induced oil shock stirs stagflation pressures and pushes most asset classes lower. Gustavo Medeiros, head of EM research at Ashmore Group, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief EM fixed income strategist on this episode of the EM Lens podcast to assess underlying risks and potential opportunities should the war in Iran endure. Medeiros and Sassower focus on structural factors such as terms of trade and energy price pass-through when discussing the medium-term impact on EM growth and inflation expectations.

The yield curve may continue its steepening trend, with recent flattening just a cyclical retracement, Jason Granet, CIO of BNY says on this Macro Matter's episode of the FICC Focus podcast series. Granet joins co-hosts Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman of the Bloomberg Intelligence US Interest-Rate Strategy team to discuss the state of the economy, how BNY assesses the outlook and how it thinks about sizing risk. The focus turns to Federal Reserve policy, the Treasury yield curve and funding markets.  The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

Credit suffered a software loan wobble and private credit contagion before the war in Iran, but it's been a safe haven vs. rates and equities since hostilities started. In this Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, global head of credit strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence and Sarah Harrison, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, discuss their prognosis on the war, reflect on how various credit classes fared during the technology supply wave and software wobble and then contrast credit performance with rates and equities since the Iran war began. They also discuss supply and relative value across high grade, high yield and loan markets, along with the road ahead amid this volatility. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

“The goal is to set the company up for longer-term success,” explained Rachel Murray, managing director at Moelis & Co. “If we're solving quarter-to-quarter, you're probably not investing in the business as you should; there's distractions for management, it's putting more pressure on the business, and frankly, probably their peers and competitors are going after their customers and creating noise.” In her conversation (7:40) with Bloomberg Intelligence's Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel at the 22nd annual Wharton Restructuring & Distressed Investing Conference, Murray explored how private credit's growth and heavy dependence on relationships alter the restructuring dynamic, relative to traditional large cap leveraged finance workouts. This episode of the State of Distressed Debt podcast concludes (31:40) with BI's Noel Hebert joining Negisa and Phil to discuss the latest developments in First Brands, Saks, Multi-Color Corp., Ardagh Group and Serta.