FICC Focus offers the latest market views on interest rates, corporate bonds, emerging market debt, commodities, and currencies by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts.
Gold isn't showing signs of true dollar debasement, if it were, there would be an even more severe market reaction, says Merk Investments co-founder and CIO Axel Merk on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series. Merk joins host and Bloomberg Intelligence Head of US Rates Strategy Ira Jersey to discuss the reason gold has been climbing rapidly in recent weeks. Merk thinks the gold rally is due to speculators, central-bank and institutional buying, while he outlines how retail investors seem to have been sellers. Good management among gold producers is key for adding value when investing in the precious-metals sector. The two discuss the shifting relationship of real yields and gold performance. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.
Credit and high yield had a good 2025, despite tariffs and rates volatility as spreads held ground. Will 4Q sustain this resilience and why? Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence global head of credit strategy, discusses the results of the BI 4Q25 High Yield Investor Survey, along with the market outlook, with Alexis Renault, global head of high yield at Oddo BHF. They discuss the French fiscal problems and trade war's impact on credit, potential ECB action in a sovereign crisis along with distress and default rates. The podcast also covers investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, supply forecasts and relative value across asset classes (high grade vs. junk), geography (Europe vs. US), ratings and sectors. Credit Crunch is part of BI's FICC Focus series. Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
There are some interesting developments in equity volatility which have trading implications from the pronounced spread between VIX and SPX realized volatility, low stock correlation, rise of single stock volatility and the shape of the VIX curve. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Chris Murphy, Co-Head Derivative Strategy at Susquehanna, to discuss equity volatility and flows.Register for the 2nd Annual Volatility Forum in New York, October 28 at Bloomberg's headquarters. Register here: https://go.bloomberg.com/attend/invite/bi-vol-forum-2025/
Asset-backed securities issuance remains slightly behind the same period in 2024, even with Tricolor-related angst continuing, notes Bloomberg Intelligence ABS Strategist Rod Chadehumbe on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series. Chadehumbe and Bloomberg Intelligence Head of US Rates Strategy Ira Jersey discuss Tricolor's effect on the ABS market, how the consumer is driving issuance, recent trends in subprime credit-card and auto-ABS delinquencies, and his outlook for spreads. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series
The unexpected election of the LDP's Sanae Takaichi and her known bias for expansionary fiscal policies is questioning the yen's bull case and the currency's sharp and broad selloff since the Oct. 4 result is a taste of what could come. For now, we don't have enough information to assess how or when fiscal stimulus will eventually unfold, so it's premature to call a sustainably bearish view until the fiscal prospects can be quantified. In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Jordan Rochester, head of FICC strategy for EMEA at Mizuho Bank, discuss Japanese fiscal and monetary-policy dynamics and the potentially binary yen implications. Jordan and Audrey also discuss the dollar and the euro's near-term political predicament. This episode was recorded on Oct. 8. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Institutional appetite for high-beta asset classes continues to endure yet traditional safe havens are not behaving as they should. Fabio Natalucci, CEO of the Andersen Institute for Finance & Economics, joins Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Emerging Market Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to discuss investor positioning and risk sentiment ahead of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund's 2025 Annual Meetings. Natalucci and Sassower touch on issues ranging from global trade and geopolitics to term premia expansion and AI-related capital expenditure. Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
The Federal Reserve moving away from the federal funds rate as the policy target would be welcome, said Meghan Swiber, senior US rates strategist at Bank of America Securities on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series. Swiber and Bloomberg Intelligence Head of US Rates Strategy Ira Jersey also discuss BofA's views on the yield curve, Treasury issuance and Federal Reserve policy. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.
“Being able to underwrite a consumer, being able to offer that product to that consumer and then being able to touch that consumer is very, very important,” says Michael Nierenberg, CEO of Rithm Capital, discussing the company's focus on asset classes where it has an edge. Nierenberg joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert and Erica Adelberg on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to talk about growth through M&A, changing the market's perception of the company, recent deals for Crestline and Paramount Group, the history and growth of Rithm's mortgage business, and what's next. They also discuss effects of the yield curve and monetary policy, the implications of a low-volatility backdrop and asset classes that require caution. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.
Mortgage-backed securities may benefit from renewed bank demand as Fed easing improves net interest margins, according to Bloomberg Intelligence mortgage strategist Erica Adelberg. On this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast, she joins host Ira Jersey, BI's chief US interest-rate strategist, to discuss mortgage issuance, market structure, the role of cash buyers in housing and how the Fed's balance sheet is likely to affect mortgage supply. They also review research indicating that a significant portion of mortgages originated in recent years can now be refinanced. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.
Digital art has been around for decades but blockchain technology provides provenance. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI chief global derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Nicole Sales Giles, Director of Digital Art at Christie's to discuss the volatility of the NFT art market, AI generated art and emerging artists to watch.
The official line is that QT has added 15-25 bps on 10-year gilts, but it's probably adding quite a bit more than that, says Huw Worthington, chief European rates strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, who sees signs that central banks are addressing that now. In this episode of the FICC Focus podcast, Worthington is joined by BI chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey and senior US & Canada rates-strategy associate Will Hoffman to discuss takeaways from the recent Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Canada meetings. The trio discusses the outlook for the path of monetary policy and the direction of interest rates and yield curves across North American and European sovereign-bond markets. They also examine the focus on shifting balance-sheet policies as North American funding markets see some pressure and the Bank of England slows the pace of asset runoff. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.
“I think it's very difficult to predict a world where you might go back to zero interest rates. And so that all portends that there's likely to be an uptick in default rates,” says Jeff Diehl, managing partner and head of investments at Adams Street, discussing potential challenges awaiting direct lenders after the strong growth of the asset class. Diehl joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to talk about Adams Street's approach to private credit managers, a focus on sectors exposed to disruption, how having private equity (PE) and venture capital exposures creates synergies. They also discuss private market secondaries, how hyper-scaling in parts of the direct-lending market may add returns risk and the outlook for PE exit activity.
“I spend most of my time trying to downplay the stuff that you find fascinating, right?,” Joele Frank Partner Michael Freitag says. “The inter-creditor interaction, the creditor versus sponsor interaction, the creditor versus issuer action. We try to position all of that as this noise, this thing going off to the side, being managed by sophisticated investors and sophisticated advisors.” In this episode of The State of Distressed Debt, Freitag discusses with Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert and Phil Brendel how distressed companies' strategic communications have evolved over the past 30 years. (6:20) Freitag delves into the crafting and sequencing of press releases and 8-Ks as part of a comprehensive restructuring strategy, stressing that accurate, timely communications are critical to combat the growing presence of “dark arts” in social media. The podcast concludes with BI's Negisa Balluku joining Hebert and Brendel for a roundtable discussion on Spirit Airlines, LifeScan, At Home, Azul, TPI Composites, Claire's and QVC Group. (1:14:00)
Foreign demand for emerging-market local debt is improving, as overseas investors pursue yield differentials amid diminishing currency volatility. Bertrand Delgado, head of Latin America strategy at Societe Generale, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief emerging market fixed income strategist, to assess macroeconomic conditions across Latin America and the broader EM landscape, with implications for institutional investors across the globe. Delgado and Sassower touch on topics ranging from portfolio flows and foreign direct investment to cross-asset volatility and currency skew.
“The Federal Reserve was created to have a degree of what I like to call operational independence”, says Federated Hermes Deputy Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income RJ Gallo on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series. He joins host and Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey to discuss future movements of the Treasury yield curve, recent economic data and its quality, and effects of recent government policies such as tariffs and the budget. On monetary policy and the risks to Fed independence, he believes the Fed was created to have a degree of operational independence, but as an organization with board members appointed by political officials, it's not outside the political sphere. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.
Credit fared better than rates and equities through multiple crises this year across the globe — France, tariffs, Fed concerns and even the UK worries. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's global head of credit strategy, discusses these crises and the multi-asset outlook with Iain Stealey, international CIO of global fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management. They cover US, Europe and UK growth, inflation, central bank views and the dollar. The state of credit fundamentals and default expectations for the next year across Europe and the US are examined in detail, highlighting the resilience of credit in outperforming rates and equities. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.
Institutional demand has been slow to return to the muni market in 2025, leaving performance at the long end under pressure. Yet signs are emerging that banks, insurance companies, and crossover buyers may be stepping back in as tax clarity improves and relative value looks more compelling. In this episode of FICC Focus, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Karen Altamirano is joined by her former co-host, Eric Kazatsky, managing director and client portfolio manager at MacKay Shields, to discuss his new role, and how institutional money could help support the yield curve into year-end.
The real yield curve may steepen from both ends much further then it has, Mizuho Securities Head of Macro Strategy Dominic Konstam says on this Macro Matters edition of FICC Focus podcast. Konstam joins host Ira Jersey, head of interest-rate strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence. After reviewing Konstam's career arc, the two discuss term premium and how shifts in the yield curve could effect risk assets. Konstam thinks Trump Administration policies will continue to weight on the dollar. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.
Fiscal policy returned to the forefront of G10FX drivers in early September — which isn't particularly positive for the dollar — and part of the structural bear case we identified earlier this year. In this episode of FICC Focus, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief G10FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Dr Win Thin, chief economist at Bank of Nassau 1982 Limited argue that the dollar's next leg lower could be cyclical in nature, with any further weakening in US non-farm payrolls likely to engender continued Fed rate-cut talk into the September FOMC Meeting. Win and Audrey also acknowledge a less-supportive context for the euro, but conclude on enough dollar bearishness to validate $1.20 euro-dollar later this year. For now defensive FX such as the Swiss franc has its merits. Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Commercial real estate debt strategies continue to unlock value for institutional investors, as providing credit solutions across the capital stack grows increasingly more complex. Jim Dunbar, Partner and Head of Real Estate Lending at Varde Partners, joins BI Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Damian Sassower, to discuss his firm's approach to identifying opportunities and managing risk in both commercial and residential real estate. Dunbar and Sassower discuss the role of flexible capital in real estate finance, with a focus on engineering returns, servicing loans and scaling strategies.
Defense burden-sharing among US allies is a cornerstone of President Donald Trump's international agenda, but has been overshadowed by tariff discussions. On this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series, George Ferguson, senior aerospace/defense & airline analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, joins host and BI chief interest-rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss shifts in defense spending and weapon systems. They also examine how spending may shift based on proximity to threats. Ferguson assesses the companies that may benefit from these increased outlays, and some of the challenges in fulfilling orders. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.
Significant Risk Transfers or SRTs have been a crucial part of balance sheet management for banks and an attractive investment class within private credit for credit investors looking for alternatives to public credit markets. Demystifying SRTs and understanding the process and evaluation of these assets is crucial for credit investors. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Global Head of Credit Strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence hosts an investor, Matthew Moniot, Head of Credit Risk Sharing at ManGroup and a seller, James Plunkett, Head of Capital and Risk Distribution at Natwest along with Lento Tang, Senior Bank Analyst who has published a survey on SRTs, in a highly informative podcast. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify
The perception of the UK economic outlook on a macro level may be perceived to be negative through the lens of social media. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI chief global derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Hanson, chief UK economist at Bloomberg Economics to discuss the state of the economy, bond market volatility and the fiscal outlook.
“So it's a tough situation when you're managing a spread-based portfolio, like a CLO. And obviously we don't have the luxury of tightening the spreads on the liability side,” says Matt Bloomfield, partner at Palmer Square and president of Palmer Square Capital BDC, when discussing the current pace of re-pricings across the leveraged loan market. Bloomfield joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to talk about traditional and static CLOs, a less-conventional approach to business development companies and Palmer's roots in opportunistic credit. They also discuss relative value and the current credit landscape, the advantages of scale, diversification and leverage.
The future of the dollar is dictated by the large overhang of unhedged dollar assets, says Hemant Baijal, head of macro alpha strategies at Invesco. Baijal joins Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence's head of US interest-rate strategy, and Will Hoffman, BI's senior US and Canada rates-strategy associate, on this episode of the Macro Matters podcast to discuss the world of international bond funds. They cover strategic approaches to managing global rates, credit and FX risks, and how those have shifted in recent months. They also explore relative value across nominal and inflation-linked curves. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.
Global credit is very tight and strategic insights are very valuable at this juncture. In this latest episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Global Head of Credit Strategy hosts the Global Credit Strategy team to highlight worldwide research, data and views. Meet Tim Tan and Jason Lee (Asia), Basel Al-Waqayan (Middle East), Heema Patel (Europe) and Reto Bachmann (Structured Finance) as you get to know their research and data along with their key views on the markets and themes they cover. All strategists discuss the place of their markets in world credit, relative value, and their new product launches. Visit BI STRTA, BI STRTE, BI STRTN and BI EMFIG to access all their research and data. Credit Crunch is part of BI's FICC Focus series. Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
The record-breaking pace of muni issuance and investors' risk-off tone toward duration have driven a sharp steepening of the municipal yield curve, leaving it trailing other fixed-income sectors. In an environment also marked by market volatility and shifting policy dynamics, the case for active management in munis has never been stronger. In this episode of the Masters of the Muniverse podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Karen Altamirano talks with Jason Hannon, head of municipal strategy and senior portfolio manager at Wilmington Trust, about how this year's developments are shaping muni investment decisions.
“So for us, it's a $40 trillion market,” says John Cortese, head of portfolio management at Apollo, when talking about the mostly investment grade opportunity in private credit, including asset backed deals and corporates. Cortese joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to talk about where the growth comes from, the evolution of a secondary market and why private credit works for high grade borrowers. They also get into the shifting landscape in credit trading, the advantages of being big and fast, relative value plays and lessons learned from trading synthetics in the early aughts.
Emerging market economies are benefiting from better-than-expected growth and inflation expectations, with local rates looking set to outperform amid a more dovish US Federal Reserve. Dirk Willer, managing director and global head of macroeconomic research at Citigroup, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief emerging-market fixed-income strategist, to assess the fixed-income landscape, with implications for interest rate and currency markets across the globe. Willer and Sassower touch on topics ranging from systematic drivers and foreign positioning to FX-hedge flows and central bank reserves.
JPMorgan's Phoebe White, head of inflation strategy, says a September interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve risks pushing inflation expectations higher. She joins Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters episode of the FICC Focus podcast to discuss how Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and inflation derivatives work, how investors use them to hedge and JPMorgan's outlook for breakevens and real yields. The BI US Interest Rate Strategy team has recently published research on TIPS, including a market outlook and an analysis of market structure. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
“I want a decent proportion of my returns to be from actively trading either through themes, individual instruments or...between EM and DM, between Europe and the US,“ says Andrew Jackson, head of Investments and leader of the Fixed Income Boutique for Vontobel. Jackson joined Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert and Damian Sassower on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to talk beta vs. alpha exposures, current risk pricing across credit, the emerging-market landscape and the value in active management.
On the latest episode of Bloomberg Intelligence's State of Distressed podcast, Andrew Axelrod, founder & CEO of Axar Capital, shares how focused distressed debt buyers such as Axar Capital are often the best bid for middle-market troubled loans as they stand ready to commit capital and sweat equity to the turnaround. In his conversation with BI's Chief US Credit Strategist Noel Hebert and Senior Credit Analyst Phil Brendel (5:55), Axelrod touches on Axar's “loan-to-own” strategy, what he looks for in management teams, and the importance of “sticking to the process.” The podcast concludes with Negisa Balluku joining Noel and Phil for a roundtable discussion on At Home, Claire's, CommScope, LifeScan, the SCOTUS pitch in Serta, and Ardagh Group (1:04:33).
History suggests that technology improves lives and standards of living, despite the fears that often accompany it, says Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco. On this Macro Matters episode of the FICC Focus podcast series, Levitt is joined by host Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence's head of US interest-rate strategy, and Will Hoffman, BI senior US and Canada rates-strategy associate, to discuss the state of the economy and long-term structural trends. The trio also dives into short-term inflation dynamics, strategic investment decisions in times of uncertainty and risks to currently priced narratives across asset classes. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.
The cyclically and structurally dollar bearish narrative that dominated 1H have just been revived by the weakness in the July Non Farm Payrolls figures and associated dovish Fed expectations adjustment (cyclically dollar negative) as well as by the controversial and highly unexpected firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Chief (structurally dollar negative). Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman talks to Elias Haddad, Senior Market Strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman Investor about whether the recent US dollar rebound may be over already. Elias and Audrey agree that the dollar bear view stays in place beyond near-term summer distortions and with the $1.20 plus euro-dollar year-end case holding for now.
Real estate private credit has grown into a major source of debt financing for the US commercial real estate market, bridging the gap left by traditional banks and lenders. Josh Zegen, principal and co-founder of Madison Realty Capital, joins BI Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Damian Sassower to discuss his firm's approach to loan origination, acquisition, servicing and valuation. Zegen and Sassower discuss the role of flexible capital in commercial real estate, with a focus on financing costs, return expectations, market trends and institutional appetite.
There's a wall of money that is a transcendent supportive influence over global assets, says Russ Brownback, co-portfolio manager of the BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities Fund on this episode of the FICC Focus Podcast. Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey hosts this Macro Matters edition delving into Brownback's views on the dollar remaining the global reserve currency, finding yield among development market sovereigns, technical factors supporting global asset markets, and his views around select opportunities to sell fixed-income volatility.
Mortgage-market investors will need to pay especially close attention to policy shifts and actions in coming weeks, says Erica Adelberg, chief mortgage strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. On this Macro Matter's episode of the FICC Focus podcast series, Adelberg is joined by host Ira Jersey, BI's head of US interest-rate strategy, to discuss the mortgage-backed securities market. Adelberg explores how the MBS landscape is evolving amid recent policy shifts, including GSE-privatization discussions, the broadening of mortgage-credit access through the adoption of VantageScore, changes to VA loss-mitigation strategies and shifting demand across mortgage-backed securities products. The analysis also considers the influence of the Federal Reserve on MBS supply and demand dynamics. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.
“From the beginning of 2024 till now, literally every six months you could set your alarm to it... the reprices were occurring,” says David Saitowitz, head of US Liquid Credit for ICG. Saitowitz joined Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to review the current landscape for CLOs, including the steady wave of repricings and refinancings, the quick recovery from April volatility and why he's cautious about the intermediate-term outlook. The two discuss growing the US liquid-credit business, staying disciplined amid market swings, control economics for the CLO equity tranche and much more.
Traditional safe havens are misbehaving as the once-distinct boundaries between emerging and developed markets begins to blur. Peter Kent, co-head of Emerging Market Fixed Income at Ninety One, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief EM fixed-income strategist Damian Sassower to break down the risks and opportunities facing asset allocators across the globe. Kent and Sassower touch on global trade, supply shocks, capital flows, fiscal balances, investor positioning and currency volatility as the perceived safety of developed market debt is called into question.
The GENIUS Act is just the beginning of the regulatory process for stablecoins, notes Nathan Dean, senior policy analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence on this Macro Matters episode. Dean joins hosts Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman of BI's interest-rate strategy team to discuss why the act was created, how demand for Treasury Bills and repurchase agreements may shift over time, as well as briefly touching on the proposed change to the bank supplementary leverage ratio. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.
Disqualified lender lists may be counterproductive because when you get to the negotiating room “it's often the distressed funds that are the more ‘constructive' from the perspective of the sponsor” says Ross Rosenfelt, a managing director in Oaktree's Opportunities group. In this episode of the State of Distressed Debt podcast, Rosenfelt sits down with Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel to explain why sponsors may be getting steered in the wrong direction when they put credit opportunity funds on their DQ list. He dives into Oaktree's approach to liability management exercises, cooperation agreements and why recent related antitrust bluster around those agreements isn't keeping him up at night (8:15). Prior to that, Brendel and BI's Noel Hebert discuss their shared amazement at both the equity and debt markets' ebullience. The podcast concludes with a round-table discussion on Sunnova, At Home, Wolfspeed, Marelli and Yellow Corp (1:06:00).
US Treasury yields are the lowest among the G3+, once hedged back to US dollars. Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence's US interest rate strategist, and Huw Worthington, his European rate strategy counterpart, take up the topic in this episode of the Macro Matters podcast. The analysts discuss central bank policy action and government bond markets in general. They also discuss why long-end yields have been more sensitive to fears of rising deficits than shorter-maturity bonds. Terminal users can view their note on how Treasuries are the lowest-yielding sovereign bond market, after the currency hedge, by clicking here. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.
Credit and high yield had a good 1H, shaking off tariffs and a spread rout with a strong recovery. Will 2H be as strong, and why? Thomas Samson, high yield portfolio manager at Muzinich & Co., joins Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's global head of credit strategy, on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, to discuss the results of BI's 3Q High Yield Investor Survey, along with the market outlook. They also talk about dollar flows into euro-denominated assets, the trade war's effect on market dispersions, and how private credit and loan markets are influencing high yield and default rates in 2H. They cover investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, supply forecasts and relative value across asset classes (high grade vs. junk), geography (Europe vs. US), ratings and sectors.
Rates volatility has compressed with the Fed on hold and mean reversion of yields, but exhibited a bumpy path in 1H. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's chief global derivatives strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Nancy Davis, founder of Quadratic Capital Management. They discuss the dynamics of rates volatility and reliability of strategies to diversify portfolios.
The nearly 15% euro-dollar rally in 1H was fueled largely by dollar weakness and a potentially bullish cyclical case for the euro — especially expectations for a supportive fiscal and monetary policy mix — which may continue to support the outlook into 2H. Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman talks to Constantin Bolz, head of G10 FX for UBS' Chief Investment Office, about how evolving euro-area and US fiscal and monetary policy may help euro-dollar strength into 2H and beyond, depending on how the US economic story plays out. They also discuss the de-dollarization trend and how the SNB could address the challenge of an appreciating franc.
There will almost certainly be some stress later this year in funding markets, but it might fall short of the level required for the Federal Reserve to step in, Will Hoffman, Bloomberg Intelligence senior associate for US and Canadian rates strategy, says on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series. Hoffman is joined by co-host Ira Jersey, chief US rates strategist, to discuss the recently announced potential changes to Basel capital rules, such as the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (ESLR). After discussing what it means (or doesn't mean) for Treasury markets, the pair unpack the biggest topics in the world of money funds, including the potential for stablecoin growth and tokenized money fund adoption driving net demand for T-bills. They also dive into the debt-ceiling unwind — covering T-bill net issuance patterns and the potential disruption to repo markets. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.
“If you were a client that was focused on North America, you're probably picking your head up a little bit and saying, ‘What else do you have away from North America that could be interesting?,'” according to Bryan High, head of Barings' Global Private Finance Group. High joined Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to talk about the benefits of a global platform amid uncertainty, when secondaries make sense, where the growth is in private credit and managing for effective leverage. They talk about being with a borrower through its life cycle, finding structures for less-conventional opportunities and much more. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.
The Federal Reserve may cut faster and to a lower interest rate then the market is pricing, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey says on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series. Jersey flies solo on this episode, discussing his takeaways from the June FOMC meeting, his view on the timing and pace of rate cuts and what it would mean for the Treasury yield curve.
As cross-asset volatility resets following peak tariff fear, the geopolitical risk premium in the oil options market has moved higher. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Matt King, founder of Satori Insights, to discuss the impact of changes in central-bank reserves, liquidity and flows on markets.
“We are sourcing, identifying misunderstood, high-quality middle-market companies where we have a real edge...,” said Sandor Hau, Managing Director & President, Credit, at Charlesbank, who oversees the company's opportunistic credit investment team. Hau joined Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert on the latest episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to discuss cutting teeth on the ground in the Asian financial crisis, missing out on the dot.com boom, a private equity approach to credit investing and tradeoffs between primary- and secondary-market investments. He also spoke about valuing heritage, leveraging learnings across the firm and portfolio companies and much more. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.
Sentiment is improving across the emerging-market investment landscape, but it takes local expertise to manage risk and crystallize returns. Thea Jamison, Founder and Managing Director of Change Global Investment, joins Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Emerging Markets Credit Strategist Damian Sassower to break down the opportunities and risks facing emerging-market equity practitioners across the globe. Jamison and Sassower touch on performance dispersion, market catalysts and idiosyncratic opportunities across a broad range of EM countries, from Greece and Poland to Nigeria and Vietnam. The EM Lens podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.