Podcasts about treasury inflation protected securities

Dan Sotiroff, senior manager research analyst for Morningstar Research Services, explains how TIPS ETFs work, their performance in 2025, and what to consider before buying the treasury inflation-protected securities.  Key Takeaways:What Are TIPS?TIPS ETFs vs. TIPSFlows Into TIPS ETFs in 2025 Surprises Morningstar's ETFInvestor EditorHow TIPS Have Performed Against the Bond Market in 2025How Higher-for-Longer Interest Rates Could Create Higher RiskShould Investors Look to Short- or Long-Term TIPS During Market Volatility?What's the Best Account to Hold TIPS ETFs?Who Should Invest in TIPS ETFs?2 Top TIPS ETFs Picks Read about topics from this episode.  Subscribe to Morningstar's ETFInvestor newsletter.TIPS Funds Gain on Fears of Inflation and Economic DownturnHow to Use TIPS in Your PortfolioWhy the Fed May Wait Until July to Cut Interest RatesInflation Was Softer in April, but Tariff Impacts Still LoomWhat Now? An Investor's To-Do List for Chaotic MarketsMorningstar′s Guide to ETF InvestingHow to Think About Time Horizons in Bond Investing6 Top-Performing TIPS Funds3 Defensive ETFs for Current Volatility What to watch from Morningstar. Market Volatility: The Trade Deals That Could Calm Wall StreetBerkshire Hathaway's Annual Meeting Could Reveal Its Future PlansRetirees: Here's How to Tweak the 4% Rule to Protect Your Nest EggMarket Volatility: Which Investments Will Protect Your Portfolio in a Recession?Market Volatility: What Lies Ahead in Trump's Trade War Read what our team is writing:Daniel SotiroffIvanna Hampton Follow us on social media.Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/X: https://x.com/MorningstarIncInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstar... LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/5161/

Steht uns wieder eine Teuerungswelle bevor? In den USA mehren sich die Zeichen, der Inflation.  In der Theorie sollte dieses Umfeld ideal für inflationsindexierte Anleihen sein. Ist es dann interessant hier zu investieren?   Viel Spaß beim Hören, Dein Matthias Krapp (Transkript dieser Folge weiter unten)   NEU!!! Hier kannst Du Dich kostenlos für meinen Minikurs registrieren und reinschauen. Es lohnt sich: https://portal.abatus-beratung.com/geldanlage-kurs/    

Volatility and uncertain economic outlooks continue to dominate the macroeconomic landscape. In this episode, Liz Ann Sonders and Kathy Jones consider the current state of the stock market, which has been characterized by significant price fluctuations. They explore the dynamics of the yield curve and the pressures on central bank independence amid political influences. The discussion also highlights the economic indicators that could impact market sentiment and investor behavior. Then, Kathy Jones and Collin Martin discuss the current status of the bond market, focusing on Treasury yields, the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate decisions, and investment strategies for different life stages. They explore the implications of tariffs on inflation and the labor market, the attractiveness of corporate bonds, and the possible benefits of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) in an inflationary environment.Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann discuss the data and economic indicators they will be watching in the coming week.On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresInvestors should consider carefully information contained in the prospectus, or if available, the summary prospectus, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. You can request a prospectus by calling 800-435-4000. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see https://www.schwab.com/IndexDefinitions.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are inflation-linked securities issued by the US Government whose principal value is adjusted periodically in accordance with the rise and fall in the inflation rate. Thus, the dividend amount payable is also impacted by variations in the inflation rate, as it is based upon the principal value of the bond. It may fluctuate up or down. Repayment at maturity is guaranteed by the US Government and may be adjusted for inflation to become the greater of the original face amount at issuance or that face amount plus an adjustment for inflation. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are guaranteed by the US Government, but inflation-protected bond funds do not provide such a guarantee.Currency trading is speculative, volatile and not suitable for all investors.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.(0425-MPWW)

Andy and Mike Powers share their thoughts on a handful of current events and "hot topics" relating to retirement planning. Specifically, they talk about: Tariffs: what they are, who pays them, do they cause inflation, etc. ( 9:42 )Pros and cons of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS  ( 21:32 )Whether or not to hold international stocks ( 37:07 )Considerations about whether to de-risk your portfolio and hold more cash a as result of expecting market uncertainty going forward ( 48:21 )Options for where to hold cash ( 54:33 )Observations and things to consider regarding doing your tax return ( 1:03:20 )Data and cyber security considerations ( 1:13:54 )Links in this episode:Mike's article about TIPS - hereMike's article on how to freeze your credit - hereMike's article on properly reporting US government obligation interest on your tax return - hereVanguard's forward-looking forecasts - hereCalifornia's one-time tax return penalty abatement - hereTo send Andy questions to be addressed on future Q&A episodes, email andy@andypanko.comMy company newsletter - Retirement Planning InsightsFacebook group - Retirement Planning Education (formerly Taxes in Retirement)YouTube channel - Retirement Planning Education (formerly Retirement Planning Demystified)Retirement Planning Education website - www.RetirementPlanningEducation.com

In this episode, Kathy Jones interviews Dr. Richard Clarida, PIMCO's global economic advisor and former vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve System.Dr. Clarida is a managing director in PIMCO's New York office and teaches economics and international affairs at Columbia University. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2006, he was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy, serving as chief economic advisor to two U.S. Treasury secretaries. He and Kathy discuss the state of the economy, the way the Fed is structured, and some of the ways that central bankers communicate.Kathy Jones and Liz Ann also discuss the current state of tariffs and their impact on the bond market, the Federal Reserve's policies, and the implications for both U.S. importers and exporters. Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann look ahead to the data and economic indicators that investors should be watching next week. You can read the report Liz Ann mentions, written with Kevin Gordon, here: "Promises: Tariffs Hit Markets."And you can also check out Liz Ann's monthly Market Snapshot video. On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresThe information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Currency trading is speculative, volatile and not suitable for all investors.Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are inflation-linked securities issued by the US Government whose principal value is adjusted periodically in accordance with the rise and fall in the inflation rate. Thus, the dividend amount payable is also impacted by variations in the inflation rate, as it is based upon the principal value of the bond. It may fluctuate up or down. Repayment at maturity is guaranteed by the US Government and may be adjusted for inflation to become the greater of the original face amount at issuance or that face amount plus an adjustment for inflation. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are guaranteed by the US Government, but inflation-protected bond funds do not provide such a guarantee.Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and cannot protect against losses in a declining market.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.(0225-SAEH)

In the first episode of 2025, Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab's chief investment strategist, and Kathy Jones, Schwab's chief fixed income strategist, discuss the overall economic outlook for 2025 and take stock of where the markets are right now. The conversation focuses on fixed income and bond market dynamics, Fed policy, and the relative performance of equities. Liz Ann and Kathy reflect on the economy's resilience and growth potential, while also addressing the upcoming economic indicators and market sentiment. The conversation highlights the importance of understanding market concentration risks and the implications of bond yields on stock prices.On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresThe information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are inflation-linked securities issued by the US Government whose principal value is adjusted periodically in accordance with the rise and fall in the inflation rate. Thus, the dividend amount payable is also impacted by variations in the inflation rate, as it is based upon the principal value of the bond. It may fluctuate up or down. Repayment at maturity is guaranteed by the US Government and may be adjusted for inflation to become the greater of the original face amount at issuance or that face amount plus an adjustment for inflation. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are guaranteed by the US Government, but inflation-protected bond funds do not provide such a guarantee.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.(0125-FMF1)

Join economist Dr. Orphe Divounguy and Chris Krug as they discuss the ins and outs of inflation protected investments on this episode of Everyday Economics! Everyday Economics is an unrehearsed, free-flow discussion of the economic news shaping the day. The thoughts expressed by the hosts are theirs, unedited, and not necessarily the views of their respective organizations.Support this podcast: https://secure.anedot.com/franklin-news-foundation/ce052532-b1e4-41c4-945c-d7ce2f52c38a?source_code=xxxxxx

In this week's episode, Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab's Chief Investment Strategist, and Kathy Jones, Schwab's Chief Fixed Income Strategist, discuss the immediate market reactions following the recent election, focusing on the equity and bond markets. They explore the implications of potential fiscal policies, the Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions, and the importance of cautious investment strategies in light of uncertainty. The discussion also highlights the significance of economic indicators and the potential for market volatility in the near future. On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important DisclosuresThe information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.International investments involve additional risks, which include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks.Currencies are speculative, very volatile and are not suitable for all investors.Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research.Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and cannot protect against losses in a declining market.Commodity-related products carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Commodity-related products may be extremely volatile, may be illiquid, and can be significantly affected by underlying commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions.Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are inflation-linked securities issued by the US Government whose principal value is adjusted periodically in accordance with the rise and fall in the inflation rate. Thus, the dividend amount payable is also impacted by variations in the inflation rate, as it is based upon the principal value of the bond. It may fluctuate up or down. Repayment at maturity is guaranteed by the US Government and may be adjusted for inflation to become the greater of the original face amount at issuance or that face amount plus an adjustment for inflation. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are guaranteed by the US Government, but inflation-protected bond funds do not provide such a guarantee.The information and content provided herein is general in nature and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended, and should not be construed, as a specific recommendation, individualized tax, legal, or investment advice. Tax laws are subject to change, either prospectively or retroactively. Where specific advice is necessary or appropriate, individuals should contact their own professional tax and investment advisors or other professionals (CPA, Financial Planner, Investment Manager) to help answer questions about specific situations or needs prior to taking any action based upon this information.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.(1124-48LR)

In this episode marking the one-year anniversary of the podcast, Liz Ann and Kathy discuss the significant market events and trends they've noted over the past year. They examine the volatility in interest rates, the dynamics of the equity market, and the performance of corporate earnings. The conversation also highlights memorable guests and moments from the podcast, as well as the evolving nature of market analysis. Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann look ahead to next week's election, Fed meeting, and economic data releases.On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresThe information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.  All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.  Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.  All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are inflation-linked securities issued by the US Government whose principal value is adjusted periodically in accordance with the rise and fall in the inflation rate. Thus, the dividend amount payable is also impacted by variations in the inflation rate, as it is based upon the principal value of the bond. It may fluctuate up or down. Repayment at maturity is guaranteed by the US Government and may be adjusted for inflation to become the greater of the original face amount at issuance or that face amount plus an adjustment for inflation. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are guaranteed by the US Government, but inflation-protected bond funds do not provide such a guarantee.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.(1124-2U8C)

In this episode, Kathy Jones and Liz Ann Sonders discuss several of the latest economic indicators, focusing on inflation, employment, and the housing market. They analyze the current state of the S&P 500®, bond yields, and the implications of global interest rate cuts. The discussion highlights the importance of understanding market rotations and the impact of economic data on investment strategies.Next, Kathy speaks with Collin Martin, director and fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. Kathy and Collin discuss the current state of the fixed income markets, focusing on the outlook for interest rates, corporate credit spreads, issuance dynamics, preferred securities, TIPS, and strategies for building a bond portfolio. They explore the resilience of the economy, the implications of Fed policy, and the importance of understanding various investment vehicles in the context of market volatility and economic uncertainty.You can read more about the Basel III regulations Collin mentions here.Lastly, Kathy and Liz Ann review the schedule for next week's economic data and indicators—and tell you which ones really matter.On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresThe information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.  All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.  Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.  All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are inflation-linked securities issued by the US Government whose principal value is adjusted periodically in accordance with the rise and fall in the inflation rate. Thus, the dividend amount payable is also impacted by variations in the inflation rate, as it is based upon the principal value of the bond. It may fluctuate up or down. Repayment at maturity is guaranteed by the US Government and may be adjusted for inflation to become the greater of the original face amount at issuance or that face amount plus an adjustment for inflation. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are guaranteed by the US Government, but inflation-protected bond funds do not provide such a guarantee.Preferred securities are a type of hybrid investment that share characteristics of both stock and bonds. They are often callable, meaning the issuing company may redeem the security at a certain price after a certain date. Such call features, and the timing of a call, may affect the security's yield. Preferred securities generally have lower credit ratings and a lower claim to assets than the issuer's individual bonds. Like bonds, prices of preferred securities tend to move inversely with interest rates, so their prices may fall during periods of rising interest rates. Investment value will fluctuate, and preferred securities, when sold before maturity, may be worth more or less than original cost. Preferred securities are subject to various other risks including changes in interest rates and credit quality, default risks, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, deferral risk, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.Diversification strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.(1024-1GEH)

After a market rally in November, what can we expect in December? In this episode, Kathy Jones and Liz Ann Sonders recap the week of Thanksgiving and discuss revisions to the Q3 GDP numbers. They also look toward the week ahead and the economic indicators they are watching. Kathy Jones interviews economist Jens Nordvig, founder of Exante Data and MarketReader. They discuss the trajectory for inflation, whether we can expect Fed rate cuts in 2024, the long-term investment in AI, and the state of the U.S. dollar, among other topics. On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit Schwab.com/OnInvesting.If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresThe information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are inflation-linked securities issued by the US Government whose principal value is adjusted periodically in accordance with the rise and fall in the inflation rate. Thus, the dividend amount payable is also impacted by variations in the inflation rate, as it is based upon the principal value of the bond. It may fluctuate up or down. Repayment at maturity is guaranteed by the US Government and may be adjusted for inflation to become the greater of the original face amount at issuance or that face amount plus an adjustment for inflation. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are guaranteed by the US Government, but inflation-protected bond funds do not provide such a guarantee.Commodity-related products carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Commodity-related products may be extremely volatile, may be illiquid, and can be significantly affected by underlying commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions.Currencies are speculative, very volatile and are not suitable for all investors.International investments involve additional risks, which include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks.Diversification strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.The information and content provided herein is general in nature and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended, and should not be construed, as a specific recommendation, individualized tax, legal, or investment advice. Tax laws are subject to change, either prospectively or retroactively. Where specific advice is necessary or appropriate, individuals should contact their own professional tax and investment advisors or other professionals (CPA, Financial Planner, Investment Manager) to help answer questions about specific situations or needs prior to taking any action based upon this information.Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.(1223-39TS)

Not long ago investors had to pay the U.S. government for the privilege of owning TIPS. The real yields, that is the yield after factoring in inflation, were negative. Last year, as a phoenix rising, real yields broke above 0%. Today the real yield on 10-year TIPS is about 2.50%. This offers some intriguing options for those in or near retirement.Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS for short, are U.S. government bonds whose principal amount adjusts for inflation. They are as close a sure thing as an investor can get. Of course, there is no free lunch. What an investor gives up with TIPS is the possibility of better returns with nominal bonds (should inflation end up lower than expected) or with more risky assets such as stocks. For many retirees, however, risk is a four-letter word.So let's explore two TIPS ladder strategies that retirees might want to consider. We'll walk through building a 30-year TIPS ladder and a 5-year TIPS ladder.Join the Newsletter. It's Free:https://robberger.com/newsletter/?utm...

After many years languishing at unacceptable levels, the yields for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities have soared. Today's Stocks & Topics: CASY - Casey's General Stores Inc., NCLH - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., Investing on Mexican Bonds, COST - Costco Wholesale Corp., LULU - Lululemon Athletica Inc., TJX - TJX Cos., Housing Supply, Fractional Shares, EOG - EOG Resources Inc., DVN - Devon Energy Corp., CTRA - Coterra Energy Inc., PDI - PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund, U.S dollar & Commodities, Chinese Investors Selling U.S. Bonds.Our Sponsors:* Check out Rosetta Stone and use this link for a great deal: https://www.rosettastone.com/TODAYAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Scott talks TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities), and the dramatic rise in their real rate of return. TIPS Meridian Wealth Management 403bwise.org Nothing presented or discussed is to be construed as investment or tax advice. This can be secured from a vetted Certified Financial Planner (CFP®). 

This week's episode of Grow Money Business is all about US government debt. We dive into this from the perspectives of investors, the government, and the citizens of the US. Join us as we discuss using T-Bills as an alternative to cash in your bank account, the purpose of an emergency fund, TIPS and I-bonds, the US dollar as the reserve currency, and more. [05.38] Using Treasury bill – Grant starts the conversation by explaining how T-Bills work as an alternative to cash in your bank account. [09.56] Emergency fund – Grant shares why you shouldn't take too much from an emergency fund and lock it up over a long period of time. [14.25] TIPS and I-Bonds – Grant explains why neither I-bonds nor Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities comprise a huge portion of all the US government debt. [21.22] US federal debt – We discuss the current condition of US federal debt and what will happen in the future if this behavior continues. [30.00] The reserve currency – US dollar is the reserve currency in the world. Grant shares what will happen if the status of the US dollar is threatened as the reserve currency.   Resources treasurydirect.gov/   Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) treasurydirect.gov/marketable-securities/tips/   Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product fred.stlouisfed.org/series/gfdegdq188S   Debt-to-GDP Ratio: How High Is Too High? It Depends stlouisfed.org/open-vault/2020/october/debt-gdp-ratio-how-high-too-high-it-depends   Video Suggestions [07.35] You can buy T-Bills …………… he prevailing price is.

Our guest on the podcast today is Dana Anspach. She is the founder and CEO of the financial planning firm, Sensible Money, based in Scottsdale, Arizona, and she has been practicing as a financial planner since 1995. Dana is also the author of the lecture series How to Plan for the Perfect Retirement, available on The Great Courses, and the author of the books Control Your Retirement Destiny and Social Security Sense. She has been writing as an expert on retirement-related topics since 2008, including contributions to MarketWatch and U.S. News & World Report, About.com, and The Balance. Dana is actively involved in the industry, serving on the Strategic Retirement Advisory Council for the Investments & Wealth Institute, where she helps them expand the reach of the Retirement Management Analyst, RMA, designation. She earned her bachelor's degree from the University of Florida.BackgroundBioSensible MoneyHow to Plan for the Perfect Retirement, by Dana Anspach, The Great CoursesControl Your Retirement Destiny: Achieving Financial Security Before the Big Transition, by Dana AnspachSocial Security Sense: A Guide to Claiming Benefits for Those Age 60-70, by Dana AnspachRetirement Spending and Current Environment“Sequence Risk's Impact on Your Retirement Money,” by Dana Anspach, thebalancemoney.com, Oct. 20, 2021.“Well, Hello, Sequence Risk! Where've Ya Been?” by Jennifer Lea Reed, fa-mag.com, Oct. 1, 2022.“Jonathan Guyton: What the Crisis Means for Retirement Planning,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, June 17, 2020.“3 Ways to Plan for Inflation in Retirement,” by Dana Anspach, thebalancemoney.com, April 6, 2022.“Don't Cheat Your Retirement With the 4% Rule,” by Dana Anspach, sensiblemoney.com, Aug. 25, 2020.“The Three Phases of Retirement,” by Dana Anspach, sensiblemoney.com, June 22, 2022.Retirement Portfolio Planning“How to Build a Retirement Portfolio That Will Stand Up Over Time,” by Dana Anspach, sensiblemoney.com, July 28, 2020.“Time Segmentation, a Smart Way to Invest Retirement Money,” by Dana Anspach, thebalancemoney.com, Jan. 31, 2022.“5 Options for Retirement Income Portfolios,” by Dana Anspach, thebalancemoney.com, Nov. 24, 2021.“How to Use Bond Ladders for Retirement Income,” by Dana Anspach, the balancemoney.com, Oct. 31, 2021.“What Is an Inflation-Protected Bond?” by Dana Anspach, thebalancemoney.com, May 22, 2022.“Comparing I Bonds to Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities,” by Dana Anspach, thebalancemoney.com, May 4, 2022.Retirement Planning Lifestyle“3 Ways to Stress-Test Your Retirement Income Plan,” by Dana Anspach, sensiblemoney.com, Dec. 19, 2020.“Roth Conversions—When Is Enough Enough?,” by Robert Powell, thestreet.com, Dec. 22, 2021.“Delayed Retirement Credits Boost Social Security Benefits Up to 25%,” by Dana Anspach, thebalancemoney.com, March 15, 2022.“7 Smart Ways to Secure Guaranteed Retirement Income,” by Dana Anspach, thebalancemoney.com, July 30, 2022.“How to Add Annuities to Your Retirement Asset Allocation,” by Dana Anspach, thebalancemoney.com, April 25, 2022.“3 Reasons to Buy Long-Term Care Insurance,” by Dana Anspach, thebalancemoney.com, Nov. 27, 2021.“4 Alternatives to Buying Traditional Long-Term Care Insurance,” by Dana Anspach, thebalancemoney.com, June 30, 2022.

Why is there renewed talk of a possible policy pivot from the US Federal Reserve? What should investors be focusing on heading into Q3 results season? And what are  10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities telling us about the outlook for long-term inflation? Ben Bennett, Head of Investment Strategy & Research explains all. This episode is hosted by Frances Watson, Content Manager. For professional investors only. Capital at risk.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are bonds that traditionally pay higher yields to investors as inflation rises. WSJ markets reporter Matt Grossman joins host J.R. Whalen to discuss why yields haven't kept pace with inflation in 2022, and steps TIPS investors can take to boost their returns. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As inflation continues to rise, many questions have come up regarding best practices for safeguarding your investments. This week on Grow Money Business Grant takes a deep dive into bond investing in an inflationary market, and answers some important questions about Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and I-bonds. Throughout the episode, Grant shares his thoughts on when they may be a good fit for your portfolio, as well as some important considerations and strategic approaches to bond investing.   [04:07] Bond Investing – Grant explains the process of bond investing and the importance of allocating a portion of your portfolio to US government securities. [08:44] Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities – Grant discusses the similarities and distinctions between ordinary US government securities and treasury inflation-protected securities. [13:41] Interest Rate Risk – Grant explains why the value of TIPS are decreasing even though they are intended to protect investors against inflation. [21:26] I Bonds – Grant describes the structure of I Bonds, and shares his thoughts on who is best suited to invest in them. [25:48] $10,000 Limitation – Grant shares a strategic approach on how to circumvent the $10,000 per year per person investment limit that the Treasury Direct website imposes. [29:00] Emergency Fund Cash – Grant explains why he does not recommend investing emergency fund cash in I bonds. [32:50] Borrowings – Grant describes how rising inflation affects borrowing and how to benefit from borrowing in inflationary times. Resources: Treasury Direct: treasurydirect.gov/ Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities: wsj.com/market-data/bonds/tips Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities: FAQs about TIPS: schwab.com/learn/story/treasury-inflation-protected-securities-faqs-about-tips

This week Derek Moore tries to answer the question of why things like TIPS Bonds (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) down YTD are even though inflation is up. Plus, golds response to inflation. Finally, can we have a recession with low unemployment plus why Bitcoin thus far has not been an inflation hedge despite claims otherwise.   Why TIPS bonds (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) were down YTD even though inflation was up Duration risk and interest rate risk for bonds TIPS bonds had negative yield to maturities earlier in the year What about gold as an inflation hedge this year? Bitcoin has proven not to be a good inflation hedge in its first test Bitcoin has traded more like a risk-on asset What questions to BLS surveys use to determine if you are employed or unemployed What is the labor force participation rate? Can we have a recession with low unemployment?       Mentioned in this Episode:   Contact Derek Moore derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   ZEGA Financial www.zegafinancial.com   BLS Unemployment – How They come up with unemployment number https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.pdf   Marcel Benjamin explains in detail how TIPS bonds work https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tips-inflation-protected-bonds-explained-interest-rate/id1432836154?i=1000535445537   Marcel Benjamin's deep dive on High Yield Bonds plus what are Zombie companies https://brokenpiechart.libsyn.com/marcel-benjamin-high-yield-bonds-explained-what-are-zombie-companies

Inflation not like an earthquake nor even like a hurricane. It does not just happen. Inflation is the mischief of dishonest government. This may be the first time you have heard the true definition of money. Why governments and politicians hate the gold standard. Why FDR took America off the gold standard in 1933. How Britain kept inflation at bay for 100 years. How do you react upon finding a duffel bag containing a million dollars?  Treasury I Bonds and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities for your money in a time of serious inflation? Your rabbi reveals the one and only way to deal effectively with inflation. What does masculinity and testosterone have to do with making money? How to increase your testosterone without injections. Can a wife increase her husband's masculinity and thus his earning power?  How can you possibly be without a proper Tanach? (The Hebrew Scriptures) https://rabbidaniellapin.com/product/koren-jerusalem-bible-hardcover/   Be sure to download your free copy of our marvelous eBook called The Holistic You - https://www.wehappywarriors.com/the-holistic-you if you really want to learn the link between family and finance and increase your revenue. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Inflation not like an earthquake nor even like a hurricane. It does not just happen. Inflation is the mischief of dishonest government. This may be the first time you have heard the true definition of money. Why governments and politicians hate the gold standard. Why FDR took America off the gold standard in 1933. How Britain kept inflation at bay for 100 years. How do you react upon finding a duffel bag containing a million dollars? Treasury I Bonds and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities for your money in a time of serious inflation? Your rabbi reveals the one and only way to deal effectively with inflation. What does masculinity and testosterone have to do with making money? How to increase your testosterone without injections. Can a wife increase her husband's masculinity and thus his earning power? How can you possibly be without a proper Tanach? (The Hebrew Scriptures) https://rabbidaniellapin.com/product/koren-jerusalem-bible-hardcover/. Be sure to download your free copy of our marvelous eBook called The Holistic You -  https://www.wehappywarriors.com/the-holistic-you if you really want to learn the link between family and finance and increase your revenue.

Today on the Retirement Lifestyle Show, Roshan Loungani and Adrian Nicholson break down strategies investors can use to invest even when inflation is running hot. They talk about peak inflation, investment options during peak inflation, and the gold versus bitcoin debate during times of inflation. [02:55] What is Peak Inflation? [05:55] Inflation and What to Expect in 2022 [08:33] The Long-lasting Effects of Inflation [12:09] Central Bank's Target for the Fed Fund Rate [13:56] Investing in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities [16:01] How to Buy Exchange Traded Funds [19:10] The Impact of Inflation on Commodities [22:31] Position Sizing When Dealing with Risky Assets [23:20] Gold Versus Bitcoin During Times of Inflation [26:02] Comparing Stocks to a Combined Stock and Bond Portfolio [29:10] How Real Estates are Keeping Up with Inflation [32:40] Tax Efficient Investing in an Inflationary Environment [34:57] Short-term Bonds and Cash at Hand [36:20] What are Floating Rate Loans? [38:10] How to Invest When Everything is Down [40:50] Parting Thoughts Roshan can be reached at roshan.loungani@aretewealth.com or at 202-536-4468. Erik can be reached at erik.olson@aretewealth.com or 815-940-4652. Adrian can be reached at adrian.nicholson@aretewealth.com or at 703-915-8905. Follow Us At: Website: https://retirementlifestyleshow.com/ https://www.retirewithroshan.com https://youtu.be/hKVzI87v0tA https://twitter.com/RoshanLoungani https://www.linkedin.com/in/roshanloungani/ https://www.facebook.com/retirewithroshan/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/financialerik/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/adrian-nicholson-74b82b13b/ #retirementlifestylepodcast #fire #podcast #FI #Retire #retirewithroshan #BAM #BusinessAsMission #ImpactInvesting All opinions expressed by podcast hosts and guests are solely their own. While based on information they believe is reliable, neither Arete Wealth nor its affiliates warrant its completeness or accuracy, nor do their opinions reflect the opinion of Arete Wealth. This podcast is for general informational purposes only and should not be regarded as specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Before making any decisions, consult a professional.

U.S. inflation is at its highest level in four decades and making investors nervous. In episode #11, we discuss the mechanics of a commonly known inflation hedge, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, and analyze how these fixed income instruments perform in inflationary environments relative to alternative hedges.

What repercussions will conflict in Ukraine have on the U.S. economy? • Learn more at thriventfunds.com • Follow us on LinkedIn • Share feedback and questions with us at podcast@thriventfunds.com • Thrivent Distributors, LLC is a member of FINRA/SIPC and a subsidiary of Thrivent, the marketing name for Thrivent Financial for Lutherans.

TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have an ETF named TIP. It just hit a new 52-week high after rising strongly since the start of the pandemic alongside the rising inflation fears. What can we learn about inflation's trajectory from here by looking at TIP's Elliott wave pattern? Our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explains.

TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have an ETF named TIP. It just hit a new 52-week high after rising strongly since the start of the pandemic alongside the rising inflation fears. What can we learn about inflation's trajectory from here by looking at TIP's Elliott wave pattern? Our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explains.

TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have an ETF named TIP. It just hit a new 52-week high after rising strongly since the start of the pandemic alongside the rising inflation fears. What can we learn about inflation's trajectory from here by looking at TIP's Elliott wave pattern? Our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explains.

TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have an ETF named TIP. It just hit a new 52-week high after rising strongly since the start of the pandemic alongside the rising inflation fears. What can we learn about inflation's trajectory from here by looking at TIP's Elliott wave pattern? Our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explains.

TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have an ETF named TIP. It just hit a new 52-week high after rising strongly since the start of the pandemic alongside the rising inflation fears. What can we learn about inflation's trajectory from here by looking at TIP's Elliott wave pattern? Our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explains.

TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have an ETF named TIP. It just hit a new 52-week high after rising strongly since the start of the pandemic alongside the rising inflation fears. What can we learn about inflation's trajectory from here by looking at TIP's Elliott wave pattern? Our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explains.

TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have an ETF named TIP. It just hit a new 52-week high after rising strongly since the start of the pandemic alongside the rising inflation fears. What can we learn about inflation's trajectory from here by looking at TIP's Elliott wave pattern? Our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explains.

TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have an ETF named TIP. It just hit a new 52-week high after rising strongly since the start of the pandemic alongside the rising inflation fears. What can we learn about inflation's trajectory from here by looking at TIP's Elliott wave pattern? Our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explains.

TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have an ETF named TIP. It just hit a new 52-week high after rising strongly since the start of the pandemic alongside the rising inflation fears. What can we learn about inflation's trajectory from here by looking at TIP's Elliott wave pattern? Our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explains.

TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have an ETF named TIP. It just hit a new 52-week high after rising strongly since the start of the pandemic alongside the rising inflation fears. What can we learn about inflation's trajectory from here by looking at TIP's Elliott wave pattern? Our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explains.

TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have an ETF named TIP. It just hit a new 52-week high after rising strongly since the start of the pandemic alongside the rising inflation fears. What can we learn about inflation's trajectory from here by looking at TIP's Elliott wave pattern? Our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explains.

TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have an ETF named TIP. It just hit a new 52-week high after rising strongly since the start of the pandemic alongside the rising inflation fears. What can we learn about inflation's trajectory from here by looking at TIP's Elliott wave pattern? Our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explains.

TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have an ETF named TIP. It just hit a new 52-week high after rising strongly since the start of the pandemic alongside the rising inflation fears. What can we learn about inflation's trajectory from here by looking at TIP's Elliott wave pattern? Our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explains.

TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have an ETF named TIP. It just hit a new 52-week high after rising strongly since the start of the pandemic alongside the rising inflation fears. What can we learn about inflation's trajectory from here by looking at TIP's Elliott wave pattern? Our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explains.

TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have an ETF named TIP. It just hit a new 52-week high after rising strongly since the start of the pandemic alongside the rising inflation fears. What can we learn about inflation's trajectory from here by looking at TIP's Elliott wave pattern? Our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explains.

TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have an ETF named TIP. It just hit a new 52-week high after rising strongly since the start of the pandemic alongside the rising inflation fears. What can we learn about inflation's trajectory from here by looking at TIP's Elliott wave pattern? Our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explains.

TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have an ETF named TIP. It just hit a new 52-week high after rising strongly since the start of the pandemic alongside the rising inflation fears. What can we learn about inflation's trajectory from here by looking at TIP's Elliott wave pattern? Our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explains.

TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have an ETF named TIP. It just hit a new 52-week high after rising strongly since the start of the pandemic alongside the rising inflation fears. What can we learn about inflation's trajectory from here by looking at TIP's Elliott wave pattern? Our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explains.

TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have an ETF named TIP. It just hit a new 52-week high after rising strongly since the start of the pandemic alongside the rising inflation fears. What can we learn about inflation's trajectory from here by looking at TIP's Elliott wave pattern? Our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explains.

TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have an ETF named TIP. It just hit a new 52-week high after rising strongly since the start of the pandemic alongside the rising inflation fears. What can we learn about inflation's trajectory from here by looking at TIP's Elliott wave pattern? Our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explains.

TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have an ETF named TIP. It just hit a new 52-week high after rising strongly since the start of the pandemic alongside the rising inflation fears. What can we learn about inflation's trajectory from here by looking at TIP's Elliott wave pattern? Our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explains.

TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have an ETF named TIP. It just hit a new 52-week high after rising strongly since the start of the pandemic alongside the rising inflation fears. What can we learn about inflation's trajectory from here by looking at TIP's Elliott wave pattern? Our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explains.

TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have an ETF named TIP. It just hit a new 52-week high after rising strongly since the start of the pandemic alongside the rising inflation fears. What can we learn about inflation's trajectory from here by looking at TIP's Elliott wave pattern? Our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explains.

TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have an ETF named TIP. It just hit a new 52-week high after rising strongly since the start of the pandemic alongside the rising inflation fears. What can we learn about inflation's trajectory from here by looking at TIP's Elliott wave pattern? Our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explains.

一週財經聚焦 一、5月13日，美國勞工部公佈4月份的消費者物價指數（CPI）較去年同期上漲4.2%，漲幅高於3月的2.6%，創2008年9 月以來最高年增率。 但股市反應激烈，投資人陷入恐慌，我們得怎麼解讀後續發展？ 國際媒體相關報導 ●Forbes富比士：〈Is Inflation A Long-Term Threat, Or Just A Temporary Pop？〉(通貨膨脹是一個長期的威脅，還是只是一個暫時的響聲？) ●FT倫敦金融時報：〈Inflation wild card unsettles markets〉(通貨膨脹戲弄著不穩定的市場)；小標：〈Investors will have to make a call on whether shift in consumer prices is transitory or a regime change〉(投資人必須明白，消費者物價變化是暫時的，還是趨勢變化) ●WSJ華爾街日報：〈Everything Screams Inflation〉(所有的事情都圍繞著通貨膨脹尖叫) ；小標：〈Investors are woefully unprepared for what may be a once-in-a-generation shift in the market〉(投資人悲傷的發現，自己對這個一生難得一見的市場變化毫無準備) 分析解讀 5月13日，美國勞工部公佈的4月消費者物價指數（CPI），較去年同期上漲了4.2%，漲幅高於3月的2.6%，更創下了2008年9 月以來最高年增率。經季節調整，4月CPI月增0.8%，漲幅還是高於3月的0.6%。 如剔除波動較大的食品與能源，所謂的核心物價較去年同期更是上漲了3%，已經創下1995年以來的最大漲幅。 COVID-19疫情雖然趨緩，但聯邦政府的撒鈔紓困以，及民眾儲蓄增加下的刺激消費，都讓通膨壓力廣泛且沉重。這會不會影響潛在的投資回報，以及投資者應該採取的保護措施是什麼呢？ 事實上，金融危機以來，過去十年股票和債券價格的上漲，都是因為長期為了緩解通貨膨脹壓力導致的全球QE(量化寬鬆)。在全球經濟突然關閉將近一年之後，經濟活動又開始加速增長，合理的結果，當然就是通貨膨脹預期的激增。 現在但是令投資者困惑的是，現階段通貨膨脹的前景到底如何解讀？ 現在擔心通貨膨脹衝擊的投資者，正面臨兩難境地，從以下三項經濟及就業市場的轉變，可以觀察： 1.被視為抵禦這種風險的傳統避險工具的一些資產，例如抗通膨債券(Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, 簡稱 TIPS)，和大宗商品，已經開始明顯的上升。 實際上，一定時期內通貨膨脹一直很熱，歷史確實為那些太晚購買昂貴的通貨膨脹保護措施的人提供了警告。過去的通貨膨脹警報，是在2000年代初互聯網泡沫破滅後，以及2008年金融危機之後的恢復期，事實證明，兩次都是虛假的曙光。 在經歷了短暫的疫情衰退之後，人口老齡化和根深蒂固的通貨緊縮趨勢，以及與科技創新相關的成本下降，這些因素短期之內是不會減緩的。因此，許多投資者和FED預計，今年的通膨還是「暫時性的」。 但是，對抗通貨緊縮的力量，卻是過去一年貨幣和財政刺激措施最大的依據。這樣的雙重壓力之下，當然，物價上漲的壓力就蠢蠢欲動。 但截至目前為止，聯準會多位官員仍然表示，今年通膨雖然會升溫，但不會太強，預料只是短暫現象，供應鏈問題解決後就會緩和。 不過美股確實賣壓沉重，道瓊指數一度重挫681點，創3個多月來最糟表現。科技股一蹶不振，台積電美國存託憑證（ADR）甚至跌逾4%。 反映市場利率預期的美國10年期公債殖利率，在最新通膨數據公佈後竄升，從昨天的1.62%升至1.69%，創3月以來最大單日升幅。 素有美股「恐慌指數」之稱的芝加哥選擇權交易所（CBOE）波動率指數（VIX），盤中一度衝破28，有別於前兩個月多保持在20以下的格局。意味美股短線波動，恐隨通貨膨脹憂慮升溫而加劇。 過去40多年來，財金政策都以打擊通貨膨脹為優先要務，對投資人與消費者友善的政策不再流行，不只美國，全球許多國家皆然。但很明顯，投資人對這個轉變並未做好準備，可能是因為很難指出此種歷史性轉捩點的確定位置。 「狼來了」是否會真的出現，沒人知道。而疫情過後的支出激增，加上供給能力受限所引發的短期通膨壓力，可能是大轉變的起點。 無論是之前葉倫主政，還是現在鮑爾擔綱，Fed都重視充分就業這項這第個指標。Fed尤其聚焦於邊際勞工的福祉，包括少數種族，因此有意使景氣的熱度處於正常水準，這就是Fed不容易快速升息的主要原因。 川普大幅降低企業稅率，因此早在肺炎疫情爆發之前預算赤字已經暴增；拜登上任後更願意大筆花錢，而民調顯示他新提出的兩項支出計畫(美國就業計畫和美國家庭計畫)也得到多數民眾支持，雖然他也主張提高企業及富人的稅負。 但我們也無法否認，通貨膨脹的壓力，最可怕不在於它會不會發生，而是它的預期性。尤其現階段，運行超過40年的全球化和資本主義，現在「全球化」已經過了頂峰，所以希望藉著全球化，讓全世界的產品在全球不同國家能有大致相同的售價，這種情形已不在存在。區域化的競爭，會讓物價上漲的壓力變大。 2.人口老齡化 全球化的好處之一，就是當本國勞動力擴張減速時，可以用外勞來取代；而美國過去十年來人口增加率，也是1930年代以來最低。當勞工面臨的競爭壓力下降，且較不擔心企業外移時，他們就能要求較高的工資。 3.勞工權力大增 拜登政府強力支持工會，且組織工會也可能比以往容易。近年來朝向「零工經濟」發展的趨勢，能夠增強勞工市場的競爭及壓低勞工所得，但現在這種潮流已經受到國家的壓力，且多個歐洲國家也打擊企業規避雇用法規的作法。美國勞工部長最近建議，許多美國「零工經濟」領域的勞工應被劃歸為雇用人員，讓他們得享更多權益，不過，這樣企業的成本也就更高了。 上述的三項轉變都在慢慢進行之中，且除了入口結構因素之外，每一項轉變都有很強的政治後座力。如果我們的確處於轉捩點上，此時如果犯錯，代價將非常之高。 投資人在殖利率僅1.6%時買進10年期美國公債，一旦通膨升高，將會損失慘重。即使通膨率達到2%目標一段時間，投資人也將損失購買力；如果年通膨率升到3%，即1990年代的平均水準，則公債投資人將非常痛苦；如果通膨率升到1980年代時平均5%的水準，對公債投資人而言將是「大屠殺」。 現在就認定定通膨將一路衝高，仍言之過早。但如果在建立投資組合時完全不考慮通貨膨脹，那你的風險會更大。 二、5月14日，一個由美國兩黨參議員組成的小組公佈了一項520億美元的提案，將在5年內大幅提高美國半導體晶片生產和研究水準。 看來半導體的競賽已經擋不住，台灣半導體護國神山的挑戰很快就會來到。 國際媒體相關報導 ●CNBC：〈Biden's infrastructure plan will bolster the U.S. semiconductor industry, Commerce Secretary says〉(拜登的基礎建設計劃，將著重推動半導體產業) ●CNBC：〈The global chip shortage is starting to have major real-world consequences〉(全球晶片短缺將，對全世界產生重大影響 ●Reuters路透社：〈Intel seeks $10 bln in subsidies for European chip plant〉(英特爾向歐洲尋求100億美元的補貼) 分析解讀 5月14日，幾位美國參議員公佈了美國半導體製造五年扶植計畫，規模高達520億美元。據瞭解，起草這個方案的參議員包括民主黨籍的亞利桑那州參議員凱利、維吉尼亞州參議員華納，以及共和黨籍阿肯色州參議員柯頓等人。 這幾位參議員認為，面對中國大陸半導體製造業的崛起，以及晶片短缺衝擊汽車業與其他產業，美國必須商討出折中做法應對。 這項提案，預期會納入參院本周將討論的「Endless Frontier Act 無盡邊疆」法案之內，該法案準備撥款逾1,100億美元，用於支援美國的基礎與半導體先進技術研發，以期更能與大陸競爭。 其實這個情況情有可原，大力扶植美國本土半導體製造業的人士強調，美國在1990年時，在全球半導體與微電子製造的占比還有37%，現在只剩下12%的晶片在美國製造。 另外，美國遊說團體「半導體聯盟」積極爭取政府補助國產晶片。美國半導體聯盟是由蘋果Apple、Microsoft、Intel及TSMC等60多家廠商組成，成員除半導體廠外，還包含上下游業者，主要向美國爭取補助，鼓勵在美國境內從事晶片製造業務。 但台灣疫情的突然爆發，也讓許多國家憂心忡忡。韓聯社引述南華早報的報導指出，若未能阻止疫情向南擴散，台灣經濟可能面臨最糟局面。 渣打銀行資深經濟學家Tony Phoo指出，若確診者持續增加、疫情向南擴散，半導體業等製造業工廠勢必受影響關閉，影響產能，可能造成全球半導體供給不足問題更加惡化。 無巧不巧，美國半導體龍頭英特爾執行長Pat Gelsinger，5月14日剛好分享了英特爾年度企業責任報告，並強調該公司往2030年目標實現進展。基辛格認為，由於有四股「超級力量」推動，數位科技正以更快的速度改變世界，這四股超級力量分別是雲端、由5G推動的連網性、人工智慧（Al），以及智慧邊緣。 Gelsinger談到，上述四項之所以被稱為超級力量，是因為彼此能發揮相輔相成的效果，讓影響力得以加乘，它們正在重塑我們生活和工作的每個層面。 但同時間，歐盟打造半導體聯盟雖然想要拉英特爾助陣，不過對方獅子大開口要求巨額補貼，引起德國媒體正反兩極的評價。 英特爾（Intel）執行長Pat Gelsinger最近訪問柏林和布魯賽爾，表達有意加入歐洲半導體聯盟，並在德國建晶圓廠的意願。不過強調，為了與台灣和韓國競爭，前提是德國政府必須提供80億美元（約合新台幣2300億元）的補貼。 德國「商報」（Handelsblatt）認為，英特爾的要求情有可原。目前全球只有台積電、三星、英特爾有能力生產先進晶片，前兩家享受母國的規模經濟優勢，對投資歐洲興趣缺缺，只剩下英特爾有意願，儘管技術離前兩者有一段距離。給一家企業這麼多補貼是很大的冒險，但如果英特爾不來投資，歐盟除了繼續依賴亞洲之外沒有其它選擇，毫無翻身機會。 不過，另一家德國重要財經媒體「經濟週刊」（Wirtschaftswoche），則不看好英特爾的雄心。「經濟週刊」指出，英特爾技術不如台積電和三星，不可能拿到蘋果（Apple）等大廠的訂單，季辛格想自製晶片又寄望代工業務追上競爭者，根本不切實際。 Gelsinger接受德國媒體訪問時，督促德國政府針對補貼盡快做出決定，他說：「現在是歷史關鍵的一刻，我們還能扭轉下滑趨勢，減少對亞洲廠商的依賴，如果再拖5年就太晚了。」 歐盟為減少對進口產品的依賴，5日將公佈新的工業政策，準備全面強化半導體、雲端、電池芯、氫能源等未來產業的生態系。 到底歐盟會不會跟英特爾合作，我的觀察如何？ 在此引述KPMG安侯建業聯合會計師事務所發佈《2021年全球半導體產業大調查》，報告強調，半導體的未來將面臨三大挑戰：屬地主義/民族主義、供應鏈短缺問題，及人才管理危機。 民族主義者之下的貿易環境，對半導體公司構成了挑戰。53%的受訪者(較去年上升16%)表示，屬地主義是半導體產業中最大的威脅，包含跨國租稅協定、邊界貿易協議、關稅、法規及國家安全等議題。中國及美國兩個世界最大經濟體，將增加貿易成本壓力、增加供應鏈管理的複雜度，及影響半導體生態系。 台積電是世界半導體產業龍頭，去年營收六成來自北美，近兩成來自中國。如何在兩個地緣政治強權之間獲得平衡，其實是不容易。台積電創辦人張忠謀早就預言，台積電會是地緣政治必爭之地，美國要它，歐盟邀它設廠，大陸也想將台積電納入囊中。 台積電去年宣佈在亞利桑納州投資35億元，興建五奈米先進晶圓廠；近日再宣佈將投資29億美元，在大陸南京廠擴建28奈米晶圓產能；這本是台積電在美中地緣政治求取平衡的策略，但這也反應出台積電面對兩大強權，已有點捉襟見肘。 拜登繼邀請19家半導體業者舉行供應鏈高峰會，又稱將提撥500億元，建立美國半導體供應鏈。既想圍堵中國半導體業，也想加強美國半導體供應鏈建置。 2020年確實可能會是台灣護國神山的頂峰，能不能再造巔峰，就得像《經濟學人》文章說的： 「截至目前為止，中美雙方都沒有直接幹預台積電的決策，或許是因為兩方都認為現行手段最為適合，可以幫助他們達成各自的科技目標。然而，如果晶片製造的重要程度繼續攀升，中、美就可能會出手，不讓它(台積電)單獨生存下去。」 看來這確實需要有智慧的政治家來權衡取捨，幫台灣找到戰略了。 《經濟學人》總評 封面故事 這期《經濟學人》共用了十篇文章，對Covid-19的疫情狀況做了一個重新的模型估算，他們成功揭露了這場疫情的真實狀況，並對全球提出了緊急的呼籲。 在黑漆漆的封底前面，我們看見的是一隻橫空出世的疫苗針筒，左上緣一段白色文字：「Ten million reasons to vaccinate the world」(一千萬個用疫苗治癒這個世界的理由)；右下方則是：「Our new model of the true deaths toll from Covid-19」(我們針對Covid-19的真實死亡人數新模型)。 《經濟學人》在整本雜誌裡方方面面揭露了一些截然不同的實際狀況，並語重心長的呼籲，除非疫苗的供應能夠很快的送達貧窮的國家，否則《經濟學人》認為，印度正在經歷的場景很快會擴散到其他地區。 模型顯示 「Excess Death超額死亡」人數是官方公佈的三倍，而更重要的一個發現是Covid-19對相對貧窮族群的打擊超過想像。也許最終能夠阻止疫情慘況的就是疫苗接種，然而短期內，疫苗會催化貧窮與富裕國家之間的差距。不久之後，富裕國家的Covid-19死亡人數會隨著疫苗接種而慢慢下降，但貧窮國家的大多數人卻有可能因為疫苗接種的困難，而必須暴露在疫情的威脅。 不過《經濟學人》認為，疫苗的擴產在2022年前就可以跟上腳步，還公開表示拜登的開放專利訴求是錯誤的，因為這些呼籲虛偽而緩不濟急。貧窮國家不是因為價格而被市場遺忘，真正的原因，是全球疫苗必須通過COVAX，這個由捐助者資助的全球分銷計劃進行分配。 我認為，《經濟學人》提供的模型估算不是危言聳聽，它告訴我們Covid-19隱藏版的數據背後真相。其中一個例子就是東南亞，這個屬於6億5000萬人的家園，迄今為止不知道什麼原因，沒有出現大量的疫情死亡人數。 不止台灣，Covid-19仍在全球各地肆虐，但疫苗確實創造了拯救數百萬人生命的一個機會。《經濟學人》呼籲這個世界不要白白浪費它，我願意舉雙手呼應。 Powered by Firstory Hosting