Podcast appearances and mentions of peter tchir

War is escalating, markets are shaking, and Bitcoin is back above $100K — but can it hold? On this week's Macro Monday, I'm joined by Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone, and Peter Tchir to break down the U.S. strikes on Iran, rising oil and inflation risks, and what it all means for global markets. We'll also dive into the crypto market's massive $1.2B inflows and whether Bitcoin can stay strong amid rising geopolitical chaos. Dave Weisberger: https://x.com/daveweisberger1 Mike McGlone: https://x.com/mikemcglone11 Peter Tchir: https://x.com/TFMkts ►► DRINKS WITH SCOTT MELKER AND MAYOR ERIC ADAMS TOMORROW! https://lu.ma/g1x0hj07 ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY!

Join Crypto Is Macro now: https://www.cryptoismacro.com/ Tensions in the Middle East are rising, but markets are shrugging it off – and crypto is booming. Host Noelle Acheson is joined by Mike McGlone, Dave Weisberger, and special guest Peter Tchir to break down what this means for Bitcoin, the Fed, and global stability. Will the Fed go more dovish? Is crypto now seen as a safe haven? We've got expert insights and bold predictions on today's Macro Monday. Noelle Acheson: https://x.com/noelleinmadrid Dave Weisberger: https://x.com/daveweisberger1 Mike McGlone: https://x.com/mikemcglone11 Peter Tchir: https://x.com/TFMkts ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY!

Gregory Daco and Peter Tchir break down the employment market after the latest Jobless Claims report. “There is caution” from employers, Gregory argues: companies combing through carefully for candidates and trying to avoid raising inflation pressures by upping wages. Peter thinks weakness will show “in the next couple months.” While he's “a little bit nervous,” he doesn't foresee a recession yet.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

►► Sponsored by Aptos, check it out here: https://aptosfoundation.org/ Bitcoin is inching closer to the $100K mark as progress in the U.S.-China trade deal boosts market optimism, and the Fed is expected to keep rates steady. I'm joined by Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, to break down what this means for Bitcoin and what could be coming next. Peter Tchir: https://x.com/TFMkts Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond. Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY!

Charles Hoskinson predicts Bitcoin will surge to $250K by year-end—even amid Trump's escalating tariff war! I'm joined by Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, to break down exactly how these tariffs could shake up global markets, impact crypto prices, and what you need to know right now. Plus, don't miss Dan from The Chart Guys, who'll be dropping essential market insights and actionable trade ideas in the second half of the show. Peter Tchir: https://x.com/tfmkts The Chart Guys: https://www.youtube.com/@ChartGuys ►►

Peter Tchir thinks Trump will “double down” on tariffs in the President's first Joint Address to Congress. He thinks Trump's goal is to solidify manufacturing and recreate the middle class, but it will cause short-term pain. He's short in the Nasdaq-100 ahead of the address – “I want to own things no one else likes right now,” he adds.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Peter Tchir offers a wide macro perspective on the markets as it readies for Donald Trump's second presidency. He doesn't see "anything deflationary" on the horizon and sees the 10-year treasury moving back to 5%. He's pessimistic on a crypto reserve being made, which would plummet Bitcoin prices to pre-election levels. On the global market, Peter sees the U.S. remaining strong with commodities and small caps to rally. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Peter Tchir gives a wide view of market expectations under the incoming Donald Trump administration. He believes the A.I. game will pick up in the states with restriction cuts to the Chips Act. As for rate cuts, Peter anticipates a slower cutting cycle, but argues it's not bad for the overall economy. On the crypto front, he tells hyperbullish bitcoin investors to brace for disappointment. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Join host James Connor as he reflects on the interviews that took place this week in a Weekly Market Recap! James will callback to his favorite moments that took place throughout our interviews this week to share his favorite economic insights from this week's guests! This episode unpacks the complexities of investing in uncertain times, offering insights into protecting and growing your wealth amidst economic turmoil. Refer to his favorite moments from each guest in the time stamps below! Don't miss out on this essential financial wisdom. Be sure to check out the full interviews included below for more insights! Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:01 - Bill Smead Discusses Economic Comparisons to 1970s Full Interview: https://youtu.be/RawJgDy0SPU?feature=shared 12:11 - Peter Tchir on Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Prices Full Interview: https://youtu.be/f4OQPHCE4nA?feature=shared 19:41 - Anthony Scaramucci on The Future of Bitcoin and Digital Currencies Full Interview: https://youtu.be/Rs5fHBTeNFc?feature=shared 29:57 -  Steve Hanke on Economic Indicators and Recession Full Interview: https://youtu.be/3gD6KRBXOq0?feature=shared 41:08 - Travis Kling on Macroeconomics and Crypto Investment Full Interview: https://youtu.be/HBPNmOnOQuU?feature=shared

Join us in this episode of Wealthion as James Connor sits down with Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, to discuss the recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their potential ripple effects on global markets. Discover how these events could impact your investments and strategies to safeguard your wealth amidst rising uncertainties. Dive into a detailed analysis of potential economic outcomes, market predictions, and expert insights on navigating these turbulent times. Don't miss out on this crucial financial forecast! Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction 01:08 - Academy Securities: Military Insights into Finance 04:12 - Middle East Crisis: Immediate Impacts on Global Markets 10:15 - Biden's Strategy and Diplomatic Tensions 11:54 - Oil Price Predictions Amidst Geopolitical Strain 16:44 - Long-term Effects on Energy and Commodity Markets 21:06 - Final Thoughts

-Jay Pelosky, TPW Advisory Principal & Founder-Peter Tchir, Academy Securities, Head Of Macro Strategy-Bill Dudley, Fmr. NY Fed President & Bloomberg Opinion columnistJay Pelosky, TPW Advisory Principal & founder, says commodities are a major opportunity in the global market. Peter Tchir of Academy Securities says the equity market is 'frothy and overextended' into tech and is positioned for a rotation. Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley discusses why last year's banking crisis could happen again. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities and Major General Mastin Robeson, Geopolitical Intelligence Advisor at Academy Securities, discuss the latest with the Israel-Hamas war and the turmoil on the Red Sea. Ope Awoyemi, General Partner at Fast Forward Venture Studio, talks about the implementation of artificial intelligence in Africa. Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Producer: Paul Brennan. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities and Major General Mastin Robeson, Geopolitical Intelligence Advisor at Academy Securities, discuss the latest with the Israel-Hamas war and the turmoil on the Red Sea. Ope Awoyemi, General Partner at Fast Forward Venture Studio, talks about the implementation of artificial intelligence in Africa. Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Producer: Paul Brennan. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities says he wants to be underweight Treasuries right now.George Saravelos, Global Head of FX Research at Deutsche Bank, says the ECB should cut rates when it meets next week. Ajay Banga, President of The World Bank joins from COP 28. David Turk, US Department of Energy Deputy Secretary joins from COP 28 where he says now is the time to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Helane Becker, Senior Research Analyst at TD Cowen weighs in on Alaska Air's plans to buy rival, Hawaiian.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, points to potential issues in the global supply chain amid ongoing geopolitical conflicts. Libby Cantrill, PIMCO Managing Director of Public Policy, says the margin of error for House Republicans to avoid a government shutdown has narrowed. Dan Ives, Wedbush Sr. Equity Research Analyst, predicts that Apple could look to buy ESPN. Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler Senior Research Analyst, says the commercial real estate market is in the midst of a rare phenomenon.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance    Full Transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Our guest of the Morning to synthesize all this with our question. Peter Cheers joins us. Now ahead of macro strategy at Academy Securities, you look for price up, yield down. What will that do to the equity market. I think for now it's going to be good. I think we see four thirty on tens before before we see four to seventy five. I think the pain trade is actually to lower yields. A lot of people who are bullished at five kind of got short again. I think that works until we get down about four thirty five. Equities rally on the back of that. Then we realize we're getting here because things like oil copper receding because the economy is actually slowing fast so I think at that point that's when the recession fear start getting priced back into stock. Taking Academy Securities three year view, you've got that slowing global demand. Nick bennenbrook On from Wells Fargo stunning with a two point four percent global GDP call. Can you own equities out with a three year vision? I think you could if you had a three year vision. I think right now it's more like a two to three week vision. Everything's so volatile. We don't know where this economy is turning. We don't know what's going on there. And one thing that's starting to scare me is we're having a lot of discussions about the Middle East. We're starting to hear a little bit more concerns about supply chains. I don't think it's an issue today, but if as this drags on, if there's any degree of escalation, supply chains become an issue again. So I think that will be a big drag on the economy. The Middle East crude last month is just unreal. To see a move of almost eleven percent lower on WTI, even with the heightened tension in the Middle least, A lot of people appointing to maybe demand starting to crack in a certain places around the world, Europe one, maybe even the United States gone into next year. What's your view on that. Yeah, I think the last time I was here, I said buying oil was not going to be a good hedge for escalation there because oil had been under so much pressure before, and I think that's what we're seeing again. There's just that lack of demand and the Saudis definitely have the ability to turn on the tap if they want. We're clearly trying to figure out how to work with Venezuela, and so far it looks like Aram's going to continue to pump oil despite the sanctions, despite the height intensions there. So there's not much in favor of oil right now, and I think that's a very crowded long position, so I could see that breaking lower coming into next year. You mentioned a two to three week view. I'm with you. You You know what's about to happen. Then in the next two to three weeks, we're going to get a load of people publishing their outlooks for twenty twenty four. Can you help us understand how you get any visibility whatsoever into next year? What's the strategic view going into you know, I think there's still some big themes. I think AI, how people are using AI, the efficiency that that could cause for companies. I think that's going to be a big theme still. So you can look over that. Where are we going to be on the defense spending? Where are we going to be in terms of geopolitical spending. I think the reshoring is still real. I think a reasonably healthy economy with their decent jobs is still the overriding thing. So I think markets are a little bit more volatile, volatile right now than the underlying economy is. So if you put this together to what you said earlier, that you see benchmark ten year yields getting down to four point three five percent before going back up to four point seventy five percent, or just basically they're heading lower. Does that mean that we're going to have slower growth but still the soft landing and that it basically people are going to get a little concerned about stocks, but that it sets up a rally. And I'm just trying to understand. No, I think a very convoluted range of thoughts. So I think as we move towards four thirty five, you get this, Oh, this is all good for stocks, and then as you start moving below four forty, I think people realize, oh man, we're getting there. Because things are not in the economy. The job market has changed, you know, white collar workers aren't doing as well as they were. You're seeing, i think, some potential for spending. You're seeing little cracks in the housing prices. So I think, all of a sudden, by year end, we're going to be back on a hard landing discussion and it'll be the boy who Cried Wolf, but we'll all be back talking about no more soft landing. We've overdone it. So you think that at that point, treasures will continue to be Haven's once again, even though arguably one of the biggest drivers of the yield move has been Washington, d C. And it doesn't look like that's changing. That's not changing. But again that's a three five ten year sort of pain. It's you know, we get ahead of ourselves. And I do think the one problem we all have is the bond market's so big. You talk about these numbers, two hundred and fifty billion, and it's huge, but it's you know, a fraction of twenty five trillions. So I think the ability to digest this you see corporate bonds come out twenty two billion yesterday, I believe it was you know, there's no problem digesting this, so I think the market's pretty healthy. I think people see yields as attractive. You're going to see people continue to add to that, so I think that's fine. It's going to be the risk side of things that gets people a little bit more spooked. Tell me about the November real yield shift we've seen. We've seen the ten year real yield migrate two point five zero percent to two point one nine percent. That makes things easier for everybody, right, it does. But I think the nominal yields still play a big role. They're still relatively high, and we had that move from you know, three seventy five to five, so we haven't clawed a lot of that back. I think there's this long you know, invariable lag time is really long. This time people did such a good job locking in yields. It's only now that you're hearing more and more people have to roll over their debt. Right if you issue to your debt back in the hey day, Now it's rolling over. Three year debt's not quite rolling over. So I think we're just starting to see that slow down impact. And I think one point John brings up, we've got what we've been calling this faux liquidity, this fake liquidity. It feels like the markets are super liquid at any given price point, but the ability to gap high or low is there. So I think we got pushed to five percent by people getting stopped out, pushing on yields. We're now got back to four fifty in a heartbeat because people are getting stopped out. So that's what we're trying to I think manage is like, what's the real noise versus the signal? You mentioned the Great Financinc. The Great Financinc. Of the pandemic, the huge wealth transfer we had from Treasury to the consumer. Consumer balance sheets were stronger. Everyone under the Sunny wonder House remortgage termed out that debt low rates. Corporate America did the same thing. One place didn't Treasury standrug Amit has been very critical of leadership a Treasury over the last i don't know, five years through that low interest rate period not termin out the debt. What are your thoughts on that? What do you think about that conversation? Yeah, I think they should have done what corporations did. I'm always a big believer, right, you know, borrolong it blocks in, you reduce volatility. And we're having a lot of conversation with clients. Probably a little bit hypothetical at this point, but maybe people are supposed to be under weight treasuries and T bills and way overweight whether it's commercial paper or corporations. That right, if you take a step back and talk about this as being governance, right, the US governance is offer right now in terms of our spending, in terms of we talk about not paying our bills. Right, you look at the large corporation's world. They have good corporate governance, they have global plans. They never once would ever even think about saying, oh, we're not going to pay our debt on time because we don't feel like it. So I think you're supposed to be starting to push really heavily to overweight high quality corporates, maybe in commercial paper, maybe some abs, and move really underweight T bills. So do you foresee a time when Apple can borrow at a lower rate than the US government? You know that ability to break the sovereign ceiling rarely happens, even in emerging markets. I don't think it happens here, but I do think you can see really tight spread compression, especially at the front end of the corporate bond curve. So I like that as a trade. Do you think we get convergence spread compression on governance issues alone? I think that will play a part of it. Yeah. I think the top quality companies have a ton of cash. The liquidity in the bond markets not what it once was, So whatever you have to pay up their own tea bills, maybe you don't. And I think this government issue is going to become a real thought again. If you think about it, why would you lend to someone who talks about not paying your debt because for a long time they've had the privilege of acting recklessly correct talked about this so many times there's been no consequence for it. Why is this time different. I think something we talked about before snapped in the market, and all of a sudden people are really questioning this whole you know, correlation or coalescence of events that have been on the back of everyone's mind. I don't think it cracks this time, certainly, but I think it starts setting us in stage again. I always go back to the Great Financial Crisis. It started breaking in two thousand and six, got fixed, broken in in two thousand and seven, got fixed, broken in in two thousand and seven, got fixed. So I feel now we've started this unwined and unless DC gets its act together, this is going to be Every time it rears its head, it'll get uglier. But it's not this year's story anymore. Pet love it always thoughtful Pitcher. There of academic securities. Lebby Cantrell joints Now managing director had a public policy a pinkel. You're the only one I can do this with. Can you take the election results and you can fold them into a government shutdown which happens in about three cups of coffee? Can you make that exercise happen? Yeah? Well, good morning, and thank you for not asking me a question about orgo. I did I take organic chemistry at school, so thanks thanks for testing me on that. Yeah, so I do think that the read through actually from last night, Tom So thanks thanks for a layup. Here is actually Democrats won a special election in Rhode Island. This was a is a blue race, a blue seat, this is a house seat. That means that they have two hundred and thirteen seats in the House. Republicans, however, only have two hundred and twenty one. They have a special election in Utah in a few weeks. The reason why this actually means this is important from a government shutdown perspective is that means practically that Republicans now can only lose three seats excuse me, three votes in order to pass a funding bill that they need a pass to avoid a shutdown by next Friday. So it just means that the margin of error is much more narrow for Republicans. Speaker Johnson was already needing to thread a needle, if you will, and that a needle point has just gotten even more narrow from the result from last night and threading the needle. What will moderate Republicans do? I don't have it in front of me, but I'm going to suggest on Long Island east of New York City, the Republicans had a good night. What are the moderate I guess the former president would say, Republicans in name only. How do they adapt an adjust off the selection? Yeah, I think that what we learned last night is that the abortion rights still very much resonate. That was obviously a takeaway from the twenty two, twenty twenty two midterms, where abortion really emboldened turnout. It shows last night that this really is very much an issue, especially when it is on the ballot. Now, I think for twenty twenty four, many of these folks, particularly in those districts Tom that you mentioned, where there are you know, Republicans who are defending Biden districts. The Democrats will make this an issue. You're going to hear a lot about abortion rights over the next year because of the results of last night, just sort of underscoring that this clearly is a resident voting issue for voters. So in terms of the government shutdown, what does that make those moderate Republicans do They are voting in lockstep here. They really are trying to give Speaker Johnson, you know, the benefit of the doubt. I think that will continue. I think the big question for markets is, though, is that enough can they actually avoid a shutdown If they pass a partisan bill, Tom, we will see a shutdown next Friday. So again kind of an open question of how this all resolves. But as of now, it looks like they are voting in a partisan way, which means that shutdown risk is you know, I think is increased over the last week or so. Do markets care though, I mean, as a shutdown basically, okay, they're going to do it for twenty four hours for effect and then we'll move on. Yeah, least, I think that's that's that's that's the real the real issue. If it is a temporary shutdown, no, this will just be more DC noise. If it's a longer, more prolonged shutdown, it does become I mean, the economic impacts of you know, lots of federal workers being furloughed not actually collecting a paycheck could matter. And also, you know, the data matters, right. If we don't get data from the Department of Labor, for instance, that makes the Fed's job, you know, a little bit a little bit harder. And we can also see, you know that this term premium that you all been talking about, we could see you know, some of the yields back up again as well on account of this. So I think you're right. If it's a short term shutdown, no, the markets probably don't care. If it's longer term, however, you know, it may it may weigh on you know. Again, I just sort of the confidence around sort of the political apparatus in Washington, d C. Just shifting from last night's elections to what we're expecting next year, a presidential election. How much of a certainty do you think that it is that we're going to President Biden versus former President Trump. How much will tonight's debate really color that discussion about potential other running candidates for the Republican Party in particular. Yeah, so, I think what we've been messaging to client Lisa is with high conviction President Biden will be the nominee for the Democratic Party. This idea that he is going to drop out, that Governor Newsom, for instance, may jump into the race, it just is not It's just not realistic at this point. Nor is there any indication from the Biden camp that he has any interest in dropping out or any intention of dropping out. So he will be the Democratic nominee again, you know, excluding or assuming there's no sort of exident health issue or what have you. On the Republican side, I President Trump obviously has an incredibly formidable lead in the polls, but this is actually a really important point. He his campaign is much more organized, i think by his own emission, than it was in twenty sixteen, and they have been systematic changing the delegate rules in the states in terms of how the state primaries allocate delegates to his benefit. So not only does he have this formidable lead in the polls, but he's also sort of changed the kind of the machinations behind the scenes in terms of how these delegates are allocated, and of course getting the nominations just a delegate game, So the fact that he's been changing these rules is to his benefit as well. So, I mean a lot would have to happen, I think tonight and over the next two months. Now. I think what we can show from even last night that voting behavior is the most important thing to look at and polls are not always right, and so particularly in Iowa and New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Those are the four the first contests, Lisa, and how we're guiding our clients is if Trump wins all of those, then he very likely is going to be the nominee. However, if there's somebody can test one of those that it could be easily become a two person race. But again sort of remains to be seen. In terms of tonight, it's really a race for number two DeSantis between and Haley. Yeah, I think we will see it be pretty pretty nasty and pretty ugly tonight. I'm looking forward to that debt a little bit. Nice Levie, thank you going to catch out you're one of the best. You're going to catch with a pimcot the vix at fourteen point eighty four. That is a Dana Ives market you, Senior Equity Research Channal web Bush. You refuses to talk to us when Apple learnings come out. We only get them to pick up the debris and we can tell for those of you on radio, you can understand these long Lily Pulitzer as well. This morning. Great, Look, Dan, I want to talk about your two forty call on Apple. You're not lonely. There's a few other people out there with dana Ives optimism on Apple. When I saw those margins and a company managing for profit not revenue growth, can you raise your two forty estimate? Yeah? Look, I think this is just the beginning of the next fees of the Apple store. You look at margins that are historical. You look what's happening on services now mid teen growth, and I despite the haters continuing to hate, is growing even when you take out currency and you it's even growing more asps the China iPhone demise story is a fictional Netflix story, and in my opinion, this is just the start of what I ultimately view is at three and a half to four trillion dollar market. So slow day, we got to make some news here. Can you pop from two forty up to two fifty this morning for us? Look, I believe that I believe are the best case or the bowld case is probably closer to to seventy five as this all plays out, because also now you don't have AI in those numbers. This is just the get out the popcorn moment for when Apple ultimately I believe, over the next year, introduces the AI app Store, and that's just going to be you know, ultimately from a services perspective, that could be an incremental five to ten fifteen millions. You made a couple of statements, so let's stroke down on them. We can do that. Your friends, you talked about growth at the iPhone. What growth are you talking about? So if you unit growth, units are growing into the December quarter, you also if you take out currency, which is a headwind, you have basically mid single digit growth. You've been talking about a massive boom of people upgrading. I guess my questions you dan to be polite about it. Have you been right for the wrong reasons on the stock to acknowledge that? I would say that ultimately, if you look at this, what I've used a mini supercycle that's playing out. The ASP stories played out, and I think our biggest call has been China. Despite many yelling fire in a crowd theater, the China growth is actually increasing, not decreasing. But they had a down quarter right in China. Well, if you look at China, Meanli in China was actually a record for the September quarter. When you look at the overall, you know, as Keen talks about the initial reaction after sure iPads, max that and three dollars get your cup of coffee, I'm focused on iPhones where units were up in China. Well, I'm struggling with that. And you'll appreciate this. If you came on today and say margins it better they are. I'm with you, Okay, Margins are great service revenues where the growth is that deserves a high multiple. I understand that maybe you can make the case for why the stock is high this year based on those things. When you say things like iPhone supercycles, when we've had no growth for four quarters in the company, that's where I struggle. Can you have the understanding this? So it's dissect that first. When you're thinking about the card five six hundred BIPs f X headwinds, that is actually underlying growth that you're seeing an iPhone units. Just to steady state it. I also believe our whole view of the iPhone cycle is really going to be over the next three, four or five quarters. That's where you're going to have these upgrades that actually come through. I'm not saying that you don't have some maybe share minor share of Watses on the sort of mid tier, but in terms of high end as a utility, this essentially is going to be a mid to high single digit growth on iPhone, and when you start to run that through, that could be an incremental one two three dollars earnings As you look out next two three years. There's a lot of growth already baked into valuation, and a big piece of valuation is where the buyers are going to come from. And you've been traveling around the world trying to hold everyone's hand and convince them that there is still value in big tech. How much do the losses of other areas of the tech like sphere and I'm thinking of Masioshi's Sun and the more than eleven billion dollars loss on we work. How much does that play into a little ambivalence about buying the story right now. Look, I think you're definitely having winners and losers in terms of this just broader economy, and I think in terms of the Magnificent seven. In terms of big tech, I think the strong gets stronger. But he said, to my point, you know, being an easier for a few weeks, and in Europe, you know, it's very easy to sit there here in New York on your tenth floor spreadsheet being negative on Apple. What I see out in the world is a much different environment in terms of the growth that happening. And I believe tech to your point, you're going to see the strong continuing to dominate. And I think in terms of AI, we are just in the early stages of monetization. I think that's a big thing in this tech ball market. Microsoft saw it in terms of AI, you're starting now see monization data dog that's a Hall of Fame quarter in terms of what we saw there, pallenteer the messy of AI, and I believe ultimately right now the AI gold rush is actually starting. That sounds lovely on that side. On the side of how much we're paying for price monetization and monetization of AI, am looking at Apple plus in sort of the amount that though that's increased, are we going to be paying six hundred dollars a month to Apple for all of our various services? Look, I think over in there, But to your point, I think over the next year or two, I think the average Apple user is going to start to definitely increase what they're paying Apple on the services because ultimately, as it goes out, the A I technology that's gonna be in fitness health in the app store, that's just going to give them just another added growth to the monization of Coupertino. And I think part of why the stocks reacted, you know, despite you know many I think being very negative initially, as it's come through, you know, to Pharaoh's point, iPhone, you're now starting to see grow services mid teen growth margins. This is just another you know, flex and muscles moment. And I think that's on a sum of the parts, how this is a stock that Ultimate is gonna be a four trillion dollar markup by twenty twenty five. Just picking up on penalty the messy of Ai. Why why are they the messy of Ais? Because I believe they are the pures play AI name in the market period. And and look, Palenteer is one where you know, many have been negative on that story for a number of different reasons. But I think what you're seeing now happen is that they've actually parlayd enterprise success and you're seeing the use cases explode. I believe Palteerman twenty five is are a base case, but that is the golden child of AIS. I'm gonna make some news any day now. Do I see another massive, mega billion dollar Apple debt offering. Look, I think that's something that you know clearly, you know could be on the table. I think the bigger thing for Apple is I think they're finally going to look at M and A, and we've talked about I think we got to extend the in They're gonna buy Disney by by the week. I believe ESPN is the asset that Ultimate by Okay, you but for that, I think thirty five to forty billion in terms of what bates transaction, but it could not beats three and a half billion. But also it goes back to the MLS deal that was I think where the light bulb went off in terms of live streaming sports. I think ESPN is a unique ass And look right now, you look at the top of this mound, it's Nodella, it's cook, you know, it's You're really starting to see ultimately more of an opportunity where they could go on the offensive ratherland defense. Okay, it's good to see you. Thank you, buddy Dennice of web Bush. It's joining us to talk about just how bad of a time this is for this to hit. Alexander Goldfarb, Senior Research and Analystic Piper Sandler. I want to start there, Alexander. There've been talks discussions around the number of leases that we work is going to abandon. Is the pressure on commercial real estate office space in particular in New York is it overstated right now or understated? Well, good morning Lisa and Tom, and thank you for having me on you know here at Piper Sandler. When we look at what is going on in office, it's it's eerily similar to what happened with malls. You know, over the past decade. If you recall, everyone pre pandemic thought every single mall going to close because everyone was going to shop online, and in fact what happened is the dominant malls like the Roosevelt Fields or Houston Gallerias continue to excel and lesser malls fall away. The same thing is with office. So if you look at we Work, which we don't cover we Work, but if you look at some of the fallout out in San Francisco, they rejected a bunch of leases. They did not reject one lease from Boston properties. When you look in San Francisco, when you look in New York, you know, companies like s Green Bornado have zero exposure now to WE Work because they exited those we Work leases over the past number of years, and even Boston properties only as one percent. So when you look at the fallout that's going to happen, and you look at the major reats and especially the ones that we cover here at Piper Sandler, the impact is negligible. And what's really interesting is when you look at office, especially here in New York, it's gravitating around Grand Central, and actually you're seeing rents increase on Park Avenue. So just like MAUL, the dominant office will survive the lesser the generic office. That's where the trouble is. So are you saying right now that the prices have baked in a lot of that trouble or that people just haven't been discerning enough to understand the winners versus the losers. Absolutely. If you speak to the brokerage community like Newmark, they are starting, They and Cushman and the other brokerage companies are starting to discern the difference between top tier versus generic, Class A, class B, etc. So when you look at what tenants want today, tenants want, you know, great space with a lot of amenities, convenient, convenient for commuters, and they want a landlord who has the capital wherewithal to invest in the properties. And let's face it, the brokers want to get paid a commission and you're seeing that fallout. It's no different than we've seen in retail. So again I use the mall example, Simon Property Group, you know with their billion dollars a year from task, so tenants know that they can be there the same as happening in reats with companies like sl Green. That's right where I wanted to go, Alexander, you are reading my mind. What is David Simon going to do with this folks? Simon Property Group Indianapolis three thousand employees. What is the guy from Indiana University can do? He's seen this before we come down. But my history is fresh money always comes in. When does the fresh money click in? If transaction to transaction, I'm down forty percent. Well, you are speaking David's mind. He loves cash flow. So since IPO, the company's paid out thirty nine billion in dividends, and the reason they've done that is by investing shrewdly. So when you look right now, he's very focused on investing in his malls. So apart from the Tallman acquisition, which was structured before the pandemic, he hasn't bought anything on the outside. His focus has been investing in the malls like out in Northgate and Sea out Of where they're converting it into a hockey arena, or Houston Gallera where they're adding office and apartments, etc. So that's where he's focused. But let's face it, given the challenges away from Simon. He can pick and choose. But if you look, he's making a ton of money out of his portfolio, which people forget is actually small. It's only one hundred and twenty malls and only two hundred or so domestic properties in total. So he's a large company but with a small powerhouse portfolio, right, Ben Alison, I got to make some headlines here. We're in the business and news, Alexander. There's blood on the streets. We see it in New York, and I get it. New York's its own little weird place, but there's all across the nation real estate blood on the streets. Are you saying your world of reats back to when you were at Lehman, your world of reads? Is it now a screaming by because of all the agony Lisa was just framing, So it's not a screaming buy in the sense that interest rates are high. Right, we have a tenure that was approaching five percent and it's now backed off a little. But certainly the financing market, which as you guys have reported, is basically shut down, right, CNBS market is tough. You walk into a bank and try to get a construction loan, they'll call the cops on you. They're like, we don't do that right now. Right, So lending is very tough. The transaction market is almost on ice because of the widespread what's interesting people missing? Tom, You're like my first boss at Liam and David Shulman. You've been around a number of decades. Real estate right now is benefiting from a phenomena that it has not had in a long long time, which is low supply because nothing new is getting built, and low vacancy. That combination is really powerful. And you started the show by saying, how is the credit going to get worked out? Again? As you as we've spoken before, back in the GFC, everyone was panicked about the CNBS. No one can tell you where the benchmark GG ten? What happened to that famous twenty two thousand and seven feel right, stuff gets worked out, Obviously there will be pain, there will be blood, for sure. But if you look at real estate's biggest benefit right now, it's that lack of supply and low vocacy. That's a huge positive that is underappreciated by the market. Just about thirty seconds. What happens if there's for selling, akin to re work, so we work is a tenant, so you don't really have force selling from that. But to be clear, banks where everyone's focused on, they're not in the business a running real estate, right. So as long as it's a good asset with a good sponsor, they're going to work out some deal. Because, as the old adage goes, a rolling loan collects no loss. That said, there's clearly going to be assets that will go back to the lenders. And those are the assets where the economics don't exist. That's the stuff to worry about. But the big properties like the three ninety nine Parks, the one Vanderbilts, those big centers or are going to be fine. And again, when you look at where the value in real estate is, it's a crewing at the top. But you're right there will be blood, and the blood it's going to be generic assets. Alexander Brilliant, Alexander Goldfire years of work at Piper Sandler now on real estate investment trust. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app. Tune in and the Bloomberg Business App. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keane, and this is BloombergSee 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Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says his favorite hedge at the moment is calls on the treasury market. Steven Major, HSBC Global Head of Fixed Income Research, says there's evidence of capitulation in the markets. Julie Norman, UCL Centre on US Politics Co-Director, says the Israel-Hamas war will define what direction the region goes next. Erika Najarian, UBS Large-Cap Banks & Consumer Finance Equity Research Analyst, discusses bank earnings. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, explains how he factors geopolitical risk into his outlook as he attempts to anticipate markets.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kelsey Berro, JPMorgan Asset Management Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, says the economy is not going to be able to handle these rates, but the Fed will be the last to admit that. Sarah Hunt, Alpine Saxon Woods Chief Market Strategist, says there's room for fixed income in portfolios. Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, sees concern as people question the trajectory of treasuries. Kevin Tynan, Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses the latest in the EV market, as well as UAW strikes. Rep. Bill Huizenga, (R) Michigan, expects "real trouble" if bond rates continue to go up, as the US govt faces a potential shutdown on November 17th. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ian Lyngen, BMO Capital Markets Head of US Rates Strategy, says the 10-year treasury is a 'screaming buy.' Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley Chief Global Economist, still sees the US avoiding recession. Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says China is clearly experiencing trouble. Margie Patel, Allspring Global Investments Senior Portfolio Manager, says there's no recession in sight because everything in the US is pretty well balanced. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Federal Reserve is on the cusp of making a significant decision regarding a potential hike in interest rates. Peter Tchir, Mike McGlone, and Dave Weisberger delve into the potential ramifications of this decision and its impacts on the Bitcoin price and the overall cryptocurrency market. Peter Tchir: https://twitter.com/tfmkts Mike McGlone: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11 Dave Weisberger: https://twitter.com/daveweisberger1 ►►MELD MELD will bring to bear the full power of decentralized financial instruments to the masses. Banks are at the heart of the economy, MELD will become a new set of banking tools that are by the people and for the people.

Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says the Fed will hike in July and that will be it.Geetha Ranganathan, Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses Netflix earnings. Ian Lyngen, BMO Capital Markets Head of US Rates Strategy, expects a dovish hike from the Fed next week. Steve Trent, Citi Americas Airline Analyst & Managing Director, discusses airline earnings, including United and American Airlines. Daniel Ricciardo, AlphaTauri F1 Driver, says he hopes to race for Red Bull again, as he prepares to make his return to F1 with AlphaTauri in Hungary this weekend. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Marriott International President & CEO Tony Capuano speaks with Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowicz and Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, Peter Tchir.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jan Hatzius, Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs, says the market is being overly aggressive in pricing in Fed rate cuts. Cameron Dawson, NewEdge Wealth CIO, says the risk of recession is high but we're not seeing the 'whites of the eyes' in the hard data. Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, says people in Washington DC have lost focus, and there's plenty of other things we should be focusing on rather than the debt ceiling. Kelsey Berro, JPMorgan Asset Management Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, says that when the Fed does cut rates, they'll be cutting aggressively. Bloomberg's Annmarie Hordern talks the debt ceiling after her exclusive interview with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen at the G7 meeting in Japan. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management Global Chief Economist & Strategist, says "basically every traditional leading indicator of recession is flashing red." Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says we're in a slow bleed into recession. Christopher Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott Director of Research, says First Republic needs "a solution and they need one very quickly." Rep. French Hill, (R) Arkansas, discusses McCarthy's debt limit bill. Timothy Horan, Oppenheimer Senior Analyst, discusses Microsoft earnings and says the company is taking the lead on AI. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale Head of US Rates Strategy, says yields seem to have peaked. Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says investors are being "a little too complacent" to geopolitical risks. Steven Ricchiuto, Mizuho Securities USA Chief Economist, says there is a substantial amount of firepower left in the consumer. Daniel Ives, Wedbush Senior Equity Analyst, says an EV arms race is playing out. Adam Tooze, Columbia University Professor, says a zero-rate world is off the table. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief US Economist, says we could see a Fed funds rate as high as 5.75%. Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says the Nasdaq rally has been overdone. Mayra Rodriguez Valladares, MRV Associates Managing Principal, discusses the US bank hearings. Stephen Pagliuca, Bain Capital Senior Advisor & Boston Celtics Co-Owner, says there's still plenty of opportunities in tech. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, details his view on the banking crisis and also why he moved into a market neutral position, this morning. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Macro Associates CEO & Author of "Megathreats", says Credit Suisse "might be too big to fail, but also too big to be saved." Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says the ECB needs to put enough "firewalls" in place to help Credit Suisse. Ken Leon, CFRA Director of Equity Research, says there might be counterparty risk for some of the US banks in regards to Credit Suisse. David Rubenstein, "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations" Host and Carlyle Group Co-Chairman & Co-Founder, says there is a lot of Middle East interest in Credit Suisse. Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management CIO, says the Fed, ECB need to continue on their tightening campaign. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    In this week's AAP Podcast, Chris Versace is joined by Real Money contributor and Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, Peter Tchir. From the fallout from Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank to discussing the impact of the February CPI report on expectations for the Fed and monetary policy, Chris and Peter cover quite a bit of ground. Peter shares likely next steps as the ripple effect of Silicon Valley Bank is had and parts with some interesting thoughts on what helped contribute to the inflationary environment the Fed is now trying to lick. Chris and Peter also discuss the mixed message the market is giving when it comes to monetary policy later this year, but also why the market should focus on the Fed's other policy tools, not just the fed funds rate. The conversation then pivots toward defense spending and the debt ceiling with Peter explaining why he closely watching to see if China sells weapons to Russia.   Now please sit back and enjoy this timely conversation between Chris Versace and Peter Tchir.    

Michelle Meyer, Mastercard Economics Institute US Chief Economist, says the consumer has more purchasing power due to labor market strength and savings. Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says market positioning can change on a dime. Russ Koesterich, Blackrock Global Allocation Fund Portfolio Manager, says stocks can have a decent year ahead. Dan Ives, Wedbush Senior Equity Analyst, says a lot of tech names continue to move higher because of fundamentals and demand holding up.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, and Mike McGlone, Senior Macro Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, join me to discuss the macroeconomic environment and its effect on investment decisions.  Peter Tchir: https://twitter.com/TFMkts Mike McGlone: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11  ►► Sponsored by PRIME XBT! Sign up for a new trading account using the link below & receive up to a $7,000 deposit bonus with “wolfofallstreets” promo code. 

Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, discusses the latest on the markets. He spoke with hosts Bryan Curtis and Rishaad Salamat on "Bloomberg Daybreak Asia."See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, sees Bitcoin below $10,000. Kathryn Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Chief Research Strategist, says we are at an inflection point. David Riley, BlueBay Asset Management Chief Investment Strategist, says we are close to peak inflation. Richard Haass, Council on Foreign Relations President, says his long-term worry is not Russia, but China. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, discusses the latest on the markets. He spoke with hosts Doug Krizner and Rishaad Salamat on "Bloomberg Daybreak Asia."See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Join Genevieve Roch-Decter, Alex Kruger, and Peter Tchir who come to my show to discuss the aftermath of FTX collapse! Genevieve Roch-Decter: https://twitter.com/grdecter Alex Kruger: https://twitter.com/krugermacro Peter Tchir: https://twitter.com/TFMkts ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER https://www.getrevue.co/profile/TheWolfDen  GET UP TO A $8,000 BONUS IN USDT AND TRADE ALL SPOT PAIRS ON BITGET FOR ZERO FEES! ►► https://thewolfofallstreets.info/bitget   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/wolfofallstreets   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io  Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe  Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c  #FTX #crypto  Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:30 What is the aftermath of FTX 7:00 The role of regulation 11:40 FTX's company structure 13:40 FTX hack 21:10 FTX was the best exchange 28:50 FTT token is a ponzi scheme 30:30 Valuation of FTT and FTX 31:30 Circularity issue 32:50 $8 billion dollar missing 36:10 SBF's intentions 37:10 Custodians and exchanges should be separated 41:00 DeFi is the answer 45:00 Will big banks step in into crypto 48:00 FTX case will slow down the whole industry 49:20 What is institutional adoption The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

In the November FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jay Powell stated that while the pace of economic growth is slowing, indicators point to modest growth in spending and production this quarter. Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, joins Forward Guidance to argue that the economy is slowing much, much faster than the Federal Reserve's models indicate.  Tchir tells Jack Farley how brewing geopolitical tension between China and the U.S. will likely continue to weigh upon financial markets, and he shares his insights on energy markets in the U.S. and Europe.  -- Follow Peter Tchir on Twitter https://twitter.com/TFMkts Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can't-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) "I Would Disagree With Powell" On The U.S. Economy (06:03) "Credit Bubbles Only Happen With Safe Assets" (08:17) Layoffs In Big Tech (12:17) This Will Be A Deep And Lasting Recession (14:31) The Semiconductor Industry (20:34) China (33:52) Energy (36:56)) Regulation of Fossil Fuels (40:41) When Will The Drawdown of The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Stop? (44:27) Will Europe's Energy Problems Cause A Recession? (48:26) The Strong Dollar Is Destabalizing The Global Financial System (59:30) The Increasing Political Pressure On The Federal Reserve -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, discusses the latest on the markets. He spoke with hosts Bryan Curtis and Rishaard Salamat on "Bloomberg Daybreak Asia."See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, discusses the latest on the markets. He spoke with hosts Bryan Curtis and Rishaad Salamat on "Bloomberg Daybreak Asia."See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

David Stubbs, JPMorgan Private Bank Global Head of Cross-Asset Thematic Strategy, says there are plenty of ways to meet your financial goals without taking equity risk. Dana Peterson, Conference Board Chief Economist, doesn't expect to see 2% inflation until 2024. Matt Brill, Invesco Head of North America Investment Grade, says it's an attractive time to buy bonds. Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Macro Strategy Head, says Fed Chair Powell needs to let his inner dove out. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Joyce Chang, JPMorgan Chair of Global Research, warns of a choppy market ahead. Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says a Fed pivot will be negative for equities. Dana Peterson, The Conference Board Chief Economist, says labor shortages are here to stay. Libby Cantrill, PIMCO Head of Public Policy, discusses winners and losers in Democrats' signature tax and climate bill. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, discusses the latest on the markets. He spoke with hosts Bryan Curtis and Rishaad Salamat on "Bloomberg Daybreak Asia.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief US Economist, says central banks need to reclaim some credibility and calm the markets. Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank Chief Global Strategist & Asset Allocation Head, explains why they expect a recession at the end of next year. Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says we may see Bitcoin reach $10,000. Dom Konstam, Mizuho Americas Head of Macro Strategy, expects a very hawkish Fed.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New York City Mayor Eric Adams discusses his plan for reducing crime in New York City. Nina Khrushcheva, The New School Professor of International Affairs, discusses what the possibility of Finland and Sweden joining NATO means for Putin. Steven Englander, Standard Chartered Bank Global Head of G10 FX Research, says dollar strength has more to do with inflation than concerns from the Russia-Ukraine War. Kathy Bostjancic, Oxford Economics Chief U.S. Economist, expects to see inflation above 5% at the end of the year. Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, expects equities to return to their pre-March Fed lows. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Brian Deese, White House National Economic Council Director, says the Biden administration has a plan to deal with inflation. Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Macro Strategy Head, we may soon discover the economy isn't as good as we thought. Nela Richardson, ADP Chief Economist, says small businesses are holding their own in the pandemic recovery. Dan Tannebaum, Oliver Wyman Head of Americas Anti-Financial Crime, says nothing in Biden's press conference is likely to change Putin's behavior toward Ukraine. Craig Moffett, MoffettNathanson Senior Research Analyst, says the FAA is at fault for not promptly addressing 5G airline concerns, not the FCC. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

ESG Best Practices – Environmental Sustainability Table of Contents: Introduction: 00:00 – 01:25 Views of a Vulnerable Planet from Space: 1:25 – 4:30 Global Cooperation and Competition in ESG Issues: 4:31– 7:44 ESG Best Practices: 7:45 – 15:31 Space and Tech's role in Addressing Climate Change: 15:32 – 20:36 Crypto Currency from a Green Perspective: 20:37 – 23:15 Resources for Clients: 23:16 - end Key Points: Viewing the earth from space allows for the observation of the profound man-made changes to this planet RSG initiatives require cooperation and verification When evaluation ESG metrics organizations should focus on what is critical to them, what they can control, then build for impact ESG will be inflationary Companies should get ahead of the curve on the ESG evaluations of supply chains Forestry will be a significant part of achieving net-zero emission goals China is committed to space-based power generation Crypto currencies have the potential to generate green technology but are currently consuming an incredible amount of energy European space agency and jet propulsion laboratory are two great resources for data helpful to sustainability considerations Wendy B. Lawrence is an Academy Securities' Board Member. Ms. Lawrence is a former NASA astronaut who has logged over 1225 hours in space as a mission specialist and was a veteran of four space flights. A retired United States Navy Captain, Ms. Lawrence was a helicopter pilot with more than 1,500 hours of flight time in six different types of helicopters and made more than 800 shipboard landings. She is the first female graduate of the United States Naval Academy to fly into space after being selected by NASA in March 1992. While an astronaut, she visited the Russian Space Station Mir and was a mission specialist on STS-114, the first Space Shuttle flight after the Space Shuttle Columbia disaster. Ms. Lawrence received a Bachelor of Science degree in ocean engineering from the U.S. Naval Academy in 1981. She also received a Master of Science degree in ocean engineering from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) in 1988. She was awarded the Defense Superior Service Medal, the Defense Meritorious Service Medal, and the NASA Space Flight Medal. Peter Tchir is head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities. He has 25 years in the industry focusing on fixed income. He has traded and structured products ranging from complex transactions, junk bonds, liquid CDS indices, and ETFs. This background helps bring a unique frame of reference to his market strategies and analysis. It helps him focus on what is relevant for the here and now for investors and issuers. He has worked closely with a wide range of investors and portfolio managers since he established TF Market Advisors as an independent firm in 2010. He is regularly quoted in the media for his views on the macro outlook and fixed income strategies. His expertise provides insight into risk, identifying opportunities on a global macro basis, with an emphasis on fixed income. As the Head of Macro Strategy, Peter communicates these opportunities and approaches effectively to customers. Peter received a B.S. in mathematics and computer sciences from the University of Waterloo and an MBA with distinction from Vanderbilt University, where he also won the Matt Wiggington Leadership Award for outstanding performance in finance. Mike Rodriguez is Head of ESG at Academy Securities. Mike is a former infantry Marine who was wounded in the Battle of Fallujah and awarded the Purple Heart. Following his military service and recovery, he did his graduate work at Dartmouth where he focused on issues of sustainability as it pertains to National Security and earned a Master's Degree in Globalization Studies. His specialization at Academy Securities is in ESG and green issuance and investing, where he focuses on the metrics by which green and sustainably themed/marketed securities are evaluated.

David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, is not sure fixed income markets should believe the Fed's dovish tone. Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says the market is downplaying the inflation potential. Rubeela Farooqi, High Frequency Economics Chief U.S. Economist, expects deceleration in the second half of the year as fiscal measures expire. Representative French Hill, Republican from Arkansas, does not believe the current level of government spending is sustainable. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, is not sure fixed income markets should believe the Fed's dovish tone. Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says the market is downplaying the inflation potential. Rubeela Farooqi, High Frequency Economics Chief U.S. Economist, expects deceleration in the second half of the year as fiscal measures expire. Representative French Hill, Republican from Arkansas, does not believe the current level of government spending is sustainable.

Major General James "Spider" Marks, Major General Mastin Robeson, Peter Tchir, and Rachel Washburn discuss the recent increase of Russian Troops on the Border with Ukraine.     Table of Contents Introduction (0:00-2:43) Situation Overview (2:44-8:03) U.S. Options (8:04-11:12) Russia | China Relationship (11:13-15:02) Sanctions & Crypto Currencies (15:03-20:39) Russia's Objectives (20:40-24:20) Escalations & Indications to watch for (24:21-End)

Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, sees a big rotation ahead. Brian Weinstein, Morgan Stanley Head of Global Fixed Income, discusses what to expect from this week's Fed meeting. Dr. Joseph Cacchione, Ascension Chief Medical Officer, discusses the logistical challenges behind the Covid-19 vaccine rollout. Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief U.S. Economist, warns of a double-dip recession. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, sees a big rotation ahead. Brian Weinstein, Morgan Stanley Head of Global Fixed Income, discusses what to expect from this week's Fed meeting. Dr. Joseph Cacchione, Ascension Chief Medical Officer, discusses the logistical challenges behind the Covid-19 vaccine rollout. Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief U.S. Economist, warns of a double-dip recession.

Academy Securities Geopolitical Podcast  Geopolitical Flashpoints: The Macroeconomic Impact of the Geostrategic Landscape      Transition and the First 100 Days    Table of Contents:   Introduction: 00:00 – 00:52  Transition and Adversary Risk: 00:53 – 11:00  Elements of Power and Multilateral Relationships: 11:01 – 24:23  Technology, Manufacturing, and Competition with China: 24:24 – 33:51  First 100 Days: 33:52 – End     Listen on iTunes  Listen on Google Play  Listen on Academy’s Website    Key Points:  Transition team - those expected to be nominated for national security positions are already engaged and working hand in hand with the agencies and departments that will be under their management   China will remain a top focus for the incoming administration  Russia will likely take some advantage of the transitionary period, but other competitors who seek better relations with the Biden administration are unlikely to cause trouble   The Biden administration will focus on filling all the lower appointed positions that remained empty during the Trump administration   Yellen’s nomination is designed to achieve bipartisan support  China – while still expected to be treated as a strategic competitor, many of the economic advisors to the Biden administration do not have a history of being pro-tariff   A Biden administration will put pressure on China by leaning on our partners  China works in its best interest, and we are seeing it leverage not only its economic power, but now its information and military might  There will be elements of compromise in our competition with China  A threat to Taiwan may end the era of “strategic ambiguity” between the U.S. and China   The tech industry is particularly vulnerable to China’s ambitions   Vaccine distribution will impact our relationship with China   The Belt and Road initiative will play a role in China’s pandemic response   Major General (Ret.) James A. "Spider" Marks is Head of Geopolitical Strategy and Academy Securities' Senior Advisory Board Member. General Marks is the Founder and President of The Marks Collaborative, an advisory for corporate leader development, education and training and has led entrepreneurial efforts in global primary research and national security. He served over 30 years in the Army holding every command position from infantry platoon leader to commanding general and was the senior intelligence officer in the LA Riots, the Balkans, Korea, and Operation Iraqi Freedom. He culminated his career as the Commanding General of the U.S. Army Intelligence Center and School at Fort Huachuca, Arizona. He has been awarded the Distinguished Service Medal, the Defense Superior Service Medal, Legion of Merit with Oak Leaf cluster, Bronze Star, and multiple combat, expeditionary and service ribbons. General Marks is a Master parachutist, authorized to wear Korean and Canadian Airborne wings, Air Assault qualified, and Honor Graduate of the U.S. Army Ranger School. General Marks is a national security contributor to CNN and member of the Military Intelligence Hall of Fame.     Lieutenant General (Ret.) Robert S. Walsh is an Academy Securities' Advisory Board Member. Lieutenant General Walsh served in the Marine Corps for over 35 years, completing his career as the Commanding General of the Marine Corps Combat Development Command and the Deputy Commandant for Combat Development & Integration. In his last assignment, he was responsible for strategic planning and executing the reorganization of the Marine Corps to meet the new National Defense Strategy roles and missions. His responsibilities included integrating multiple warfighting functions and domains across all military services and the Department of Defense.    Peter Tchir is head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities. He has 25 years in the industry focusing on  fixed income. He has traded and structured products ranging from complex transactions, junk bonds, liquid CDS indices, and ETFs. This background helps bring a unique frame of reference to his market strategies and analysis. It helps him focus on what is relevant for the here and now for investors and issuers. He has worked closely with a wide range of investors and portfolio managers since he established TF Market Advisors as an independent firm in 2010. He is regularly quoted in the media for his views on the macro outlook and fixed income strategies. His expertise provides insight into risk, identifying opportunities on a global macro basis, with an emphasis on fixed income. As the Head of Macro Strategy, Peter communicates these opportunities and approaches effectively to customers. Peter received a B.S. in mathematics and computer sciences from the University of Waterloo and an MBA with distinction from Vanderbilt University, where he also won the Matt Wiggington Leadership Award for outstanding performance in finance.    The following information has been provided for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as a solicitation, an offer to sell, or an offer to buy any security. Academy Securities Inc. accepts no liability for any errors or omissions arising as a result of transmission. Use of this communication by other than the intended recipients is prohibited.    Academy Securities is a preeminent disabled veteran owned investment bank with strength in public finance, fixed income and equity trading and underwriting. Leadership and staff have had intensive military training prior to entering and gaining in-depth financial services experience in global capital markets. We are mission driven with a high ethical code, a solid sense of accountability and strive for excellence in the pursuit of our clients' success. Intellectual assets, strong visionary leaders and a proud team commitment bring out the best in each other for the benefit of our clients. Academy is our nation's first and only post-9/11 disabled veteran owned investment bank and is certified as DVBE, SDVOSB and MBE. The firm has a strong top and middle tier client base served by a national platform with offices in New York, Chicago, San Diego, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Sacramento, Atlanta, Charlotte, and Chapel Hill.   Please visit our website at www.academysecurities.com.  Third Party Research Disclosure:   The opinions are those of independent third-party research providers. Information contained herein is based on information provided by a third-party research provider and is not guaranteed by us, nor should the information be construed as an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein or provide investment advice. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of Academy Securities Inc, its employees, officers, or directors. Academy Securities, Inc. directors, officers and employees and their family members from time to time may own securities of the publicly traded companies discussed in any referenced independent Third-Party Research report. Academy Securities, Inc. may have a marketing partnership with several Third-Party Research providers to market their research services to institutional clients. Academy Securities, Inc. is an agency-only broker. The firm does not produce proprietary research, nor does it engage in any proprietary trading. The user is responsible for verifying the accuracy of the data received. Academy Securities, Inc. does not have any ownership of the subject company's securities. Academy Securities, Inc. has not managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12 months. Academy Securities, Inc. does not or has not had any investment banking relationships with the subject company in the past 12 months nor expects to in the next 3 months. Academy Securities, Inc. does not have any market making activities in the subject company's securities. Academy Securities, Inc. does not maintain an analytical relationship and is not a member of any distributing organization. Academy Securities, Inc. makes no claim as to its accuracy or completeness. Academy Securities, Inc. is not responsible for the content or comments of these independent third-party research providers. Academy Securities, Inc. accepts no liability for any errors or omissions arising as a result of transmission. Use of this communication by other than the intended recipients is prohibited.    Academy Securities, Inc. Member FINRA | SIPC                   

Peter Tchir on the market impact of positive market impact of Covid-19 vaccine news. He believes the prospect of a comprehensive fiscal stimulus is already priced into the market, and equity valuations reflect this potential event. Peter also notes that election hedges have largely been unwound and Telsa's inclusion into the S&P 500 has been part of the bull case catalyst.

Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, warns markets seem a little bit complacent amid surging coronavirus cases and legal challenges to the U.S. election outcome. Lawrence Gostin, Georgetown University Professor, says the Trump administration has given up on dealing with the coronavirus and are waiting for a vaccine. Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon Investment Management Chief Strategist, says growth stocks will carry the market into 2021 with the S&P 500 positioned to power even higher. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Chairman and Co-Founder & Host of "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations" discusses his interview with Wynton Marsalis, Jazz at Lincoln Center Managing and Artistic Director. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, warns markets seem a little bit complacent amid surging coronavirus cases and legal challenges to the U.S. election outcome. Lawrence Gostin, Georgetown University Professor, says the Trump administration has given up on dealing with the coronavirus and are waiting for a vaccine. Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon Investment Management Chief Strategist, says growth stocks will carry the market into 2021 with the S&P 500 positioned to power even higher. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Chairman and Co-Founder & Host of "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations" discusses his interview with Wynton Marsalis, Jazz at Lincoln Center Managing and Artistic Director.

Academy Securities hosted a Zoom webinar on November 5th, 2020.  At the time of this webinar the results of the presidential election between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.  Major General James "Spider" Marks, Rachel Washburn, and Peter Tchir discuss the impact of this on the markets and global risk landscape.

Representative Michael Waltz, a Republican from Florida, discusses Trump's prospects in the battleground state. Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, remains bearish on the dollar. Robert Doll, Nuveen Chief Equity Strategist, discusses what a Democratic sweep could mean for the markets. Carla Harris, Morgan Stanley Vice Chairman and Senior Client Advisor, shares strategies for closing the funding and opportunity gap. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Representative Michael Waltz, a Republican from Florida, discusses Trump's prospects in the battleground state. Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, remains bearish on the dollar. Robert Doll, Nuveen Chief Equity Strategist, discusses what a Democratic sweep could mean for the markets. Carla Harris, Morgan Stanley Vice Chairman and Senior Client Advisor, shares strategies for closing the funding and opportunity gap.

We hosted a Zoom video Roundtable discussing treating China as a strategic competitor.  Participants in this event included Lieutenant General Bob Walsh, Major General James "Spider" Marks, Peter Tchir and Rachel Washburn. 

More Please - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is presiding over the largest government intervention in history… $3T of bond-buying and added liquidity since March alone. It’s great for stock prices, but what’s really happening? Long-time Fed-watcher and macro strategist Peter Tchir of Academy Securities explains.

Rising Tensions in the South China Sea Table of Contents: Introduction: 0:00 - 1:17 What is happening in the South China Sea: 1:18 - 9:45 How the tensions may impact trade: 9:45 - 17:07 Impact of Hong Kong’s new national security law: 17:08 - 22:41 Risk of miscalculation or accident: 22:42 - 26:40 Race for new technology: 26:41 - End Key Points: The U.S. recently announced that it rejects China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea (SCS) The “great power competition” we are seeing in the SCS is potentially moving the U.S. towards a Cold War with China, but neither country wants a conflict China’s claim to the SCS is based on the fact that it is not a signatory to the WWII Peace Treaty The U.S., along with its network of allies and partners in the region, must act as a counterweight to China China is using an Anti-Access Area Denial (A2/AD) strategy in the SCS and has militarized several islands with aircraft, missiles, and jamming technology There remains a risk of miscalculation with two U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups operating in the SCS Undersea cables, critical for the use of the internet and messaging, may be at risk given China’s expansion in the region While tensions will continue to rise, China will remain a key global trading partner However, countries will be more careful regarding tech (5G) and supply chain (PPE) The developments in Hong Kong may not be crucial to the global economy, but it may be a precursor to a change in Chinese strategy regarding Taiwan It is becoming harder to separate the economic and diplomatic issues after the U.S. ended the preferential treatment Hong Kong once received and China is now cracking down on U.S. companies doing business with Taiwan The international community is starting to recognize the technological competition with China Major General Clarence K.K. Chinn is an Academy Securities' Advisory Board Member. Major General Chinn brings decades of experience to Academy’s Advisory Board, having served in the U.S. Army for over 36 years. He most recently served as Commander, U.S. Army South, where he was responsible for the conduct and support of multinational operations and security operations in the U.S. Southern Command area of responsibility (31 countries and 15 areas of special sovereignty in Central/South America and the Caribbean) in order to counter transregional transnational threat networks and strengthen regional security in defense of the homeland. Prior to this assignment, Major General Chinn served as the Deputy Commander for United States Army Special Operations Command, as the Senior Commander at Fort Bragg, a $32 billion dollar industry for North Carolina annually, and Commanding General at Fort Polk, LA. Major General Chinn is a 1981 graduate of the United States Military Academy and holds a master’s degree in strategic studies from the U.S. Army War College. He has served as an Infantry officer, commanding at every level, with extensive time serving with Airborne / Ranger units. Currently residing in Aiea, Hawaii, Major General Chinn has been assisting United States Army Pacific with their Regional Leader Development Program – Pacific. Lieutenant General (Ret.) Robert S. Walsh is an Academy Securities' Advisory Board Member. Lieutenant General Walsh served in the Marine Corps for over 35 years, completing his career as the Commanding General of the Marine Corps Combat Development Command and the Deputy Commandant for Combat Development & Integration. In his last assignment, he was responsible for strategic planning and executing the reorganization of the Marine Corps to meet the new National Defense Strategy roles and missions. His responsibilities included integrating multiple warfighting functions and domains across all military services and the Department of Defense. Peter Tchir is Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities. He has 25 years in the industry focusing on fixed income. He has traded and structured products ranging from complex transactions, junk bonds, liquid CDS indices, and ETFs. This background helps bring a unique frame of reference to his market strategies and analysis. It helps him focus on what is relevant for the here and now for investors and issuers. He has worked closely with a wide range of investors and portfolio managers since he established TF Market Advisors as an independent firm in 2010. He is regularly quoted in the media for his views on the macro outlook and fixed income strategies. His expertise provides insight into risk, identifying opportunities on a global macro basis, with an emphasis on fixed income. As the Head of Macro Strategy, Peter communicates these opportunities and approaches effectively to customers. Peter received a B.S. in mathematics and computer sciences from the University of Waterloo and an MBA with distinction from Vanderbilt University, where he also won the Matt Wiggington Leadership Award for outstanding performance in finance

The lockdown has roiled oil markets and with it the world's largest oil ETF, USO, which has changed its exposure almost daily, gone through a reverse split and halted creations after seeing a huge influx of investors looking to call a bottom in oil. On this episode of Trillions, Joel and Eric are joined by Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy for Academy Securities, to break down the USO story and discuss whether an ETF like this should exist and what alternative exist for investors hellbent on trying to time an oil rebound. Peter also gives his take on bond ETFs and brings his sector ETF picks.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The lockdown has roiled oil markets and with it the world's largest oil ETF, USO, which has changed its exposure almost daily, gone through a reverse split and halted creations after seeing a huge influx of investors looking to call a bottom in oil.  On this episode of Trillions, Joel and Eric are joined by Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy for Academy Securities, to break down the USO story and discuss whether an ETF like this should exist and what alternative exist for investors hellbent on trying to time an oil rebound. Peter also gives his take on bond ETFs and brings his sector ETF picks.

Bloomberg News Global Macro Strategist Vincent Cignarella and Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, discuss a surge in U.S. jobless claims and share the latest on where the economy stands. Dr. Arturo Casadevall, Chair of the Department of the Molecular Microbiology and Immunology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, provides an update on the coronavirus. Bloomberg Businessweek Editor Joel Weber and Businessweek Assistant Managing Editor Jim Ellis give their insight on Boeing asking Washington for help that critics say the company doesn't deserve. And we Drive to the Close with Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist at LPL Financial. Hosts: Carol Massar and Jason Kelly. Producer: Doni Holloway. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Bloomberg News Global Macro Strategist Vincent Cignarella and Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, discuss a surge in U.S. jobless claims and share the latest on where the economy stands. Dr. Arturo Casadevall, Chair of the Department of the Molecular Microbiology and Immunology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, provides an update on the coronavirus. Bloomberg Businessweek Editor Joel Weber and Businessweek Assistant Managing Editor Jim Ellis give their insight on Boeing asking Washington for help that critics say the company doesn’t deserve. And we Drive to the Close with Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist at LPL Financial. Hosts: Carol Massar and Jason Kelly. Producer: Doni Holloway.

Andy Slavitt, Former Acting Administrator for Medicare and Medicaid Services, on asking Americans to stay home, and upcoming strain on the U.S. health care system. Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategies at Academy Securities, on why he would put a little risk on. Gaurang Shastri, Managing Director and Head of Lincoln Internationals’ North American Logistics & Transportation, on impact of coronavirus on ports and supply chains. Max Nisen, Bloomberg Opinion health care columnist, on the coronavirus hospitalization rate.

Dr. Amy Compton-Phillips, Chief Clinical Officer at Providence St. Joseph Health, discusses efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. which she says are being hampered by a lack of testing kits. Bloomberg News Technology Reporter Gerrit De Vynck explains how Google is blocking coronavirus ads and is pulling YouTube videos claiming cures. Bloomberg Businessweek Editor Joel Weber and Bloomberg News P&I Reporter Peter Robison talk about how Seattle's patient zero spread the coronavirus despite being in lockdown. Stewart Glickman, Energy Analyst at CFRA Research, discusses what's making energy investors scream. And we Drive to the Close with Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities. Hosts: Carol Massar and Jason Kelly. Producer: Paul Brennan Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Dr. Amy Compton-Phillips, Chief Clinical Officer at Providence St. Joseph Health, discusses efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. which she says are being hampered by a lack of testing kits. Bloomberg News Technology Reporter Gerrit De Vynck explains how Google is blocking coronavirus ads and is pulling YouTube videos claiming cures. Bloomberg Businessweek Editor Joel Weber and Bloomberg News P&I Reporter Peter Robison talk about how Seattle's patient zero spread the coronavirus despite being in lockdown. Stewart Glickman, Energy Analyst at CFRA Research, discusses what's making energy investors scream. And we Drive to the Close with Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities. Hosts: Carol Massar and Jason Kelly. Producer: Paul Brennan

Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, talks about the coronavirus and markets. Bloomberg News Distressed Debt Reporter Katherine Doherty discusses gym chains debt. For the Businessweek Economics segment, we're joined by Bloomberg News Global Macro Strategist Vincent Cignarella and Bloomberg Economics Senior U.S. Economist Yelena Shulyatyeva. Andy Browne, Bloomberg New Economy Editorial Director, shares his insight on how the coronavirus threatens Xi Jinping and China on the global stage. And we Drive to the Close with Craig Johnson, Chief Market Technician at Piper Sandler. Hosts: Carol Massar and Jason Kelly. Producer: Doni Holloway.  Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, talks about the coronavirus and markets. Bloomberg News Distressed Debt Reporter Katherine Doherty discusses gym chains debt. For the Businessweek Economics segment, we’re joined by Bloomberg News Global Macro Strategist Vincent Cignarella and Bloomberg Economics Senior U.S. Economist Yelena Shulyatyeva. Andy Browne, Bloomberg New Economy Editorial Director, shares his insight on how the coronavirus threatens Xi Jinping and China on the global stage. And we Drive to the Close with Craig Johnson, Chief Market Technician at Piper Sandler. Hosts: Carol Massar and Jason Kelly. Producer: Doni Holloway. 

Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities and Retired General Frank Kearney discuss the impact of the Iran retaliation attack on markets and beyond. Nick Parrish, Managing Director at Cresset Partners, talks about investing in opportunity zones. Bloomberg News Senior Reporter Matthew Campbell shares his insight on Carlos Ghosn’s press conference. Bloomberg Businessweek Editor Joel Weber and Bloomberg News Distressed Debt Reporter Josh Saul walk through the Catholic Church's bankruptcy strategy. And we Drive to the Close with Alan Zafran, Founding Partner and Co-CEO at IEQ Capital. Hosts: Carol Massar and Jason Kelly. Producer: Doni Holloway.

Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities and Retired General Frank Kearney discuss the impact of the Iran retaliation attack on markets and beyond. Nick Parrish, Managing Director at Cresset Partners, talks about investing in opportunity zones. Bloomberg News Senior Reporter Matthew Campbell shares his insight on Carlos Ghosn's press conference. Bloomberg Businessweek Editor Joel Weber and Bloomberg News Distressed Debt Reporter Josh Saul walk through the Catholic Church's bankruptcy strategy. And we Drive to the Close with Alan Zafran, Founding Partner and Co-CEO at IEQ Capital. Hosts: Carol Massar and Jason Kelly. Producer: Doni Holloway. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, and Academy Securities Advisory Board Member Retired Marine Lieutenant General Robert Walsh discuss the market and geopolitical impact of the U.S. airstrike in Iran that killed one of Iran’s most powerful generals. Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence and former adviser to the Dallas Fed, discusses her economic outlook including thoughts on oil, the Fed and employment. Craig Johnson, President of Customer Growth Partners, has a recap of holiday retail sales and his outlook for 2020. Jim Paulsen, Chief Investment Strategist at The Leuthold Group, explains whether or not we're in a "new" bull market. Hosts: Lisa Abramowicz and Paul Sweeney.

Bloomberg News Private Equity Reporter Heather Perlberg and Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Health Care Analyst Jonathan Palmer discuss KKR’s bid to buyout Walgreens. Kevin Carter, Founder of EMQQ, talks Alibaba’s Singles Day and the outlook for ecommerce. Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, and Retired Marine Lieutenant General Robert Walsh break down the impact of Hong Kong protests on markets and trade negotiations. Liana Baker, Bloomberg News Deals reporter, explains Open Text’s plan to buy Carbonite. And we Drive to the Close with Alan Zafran, Founding Partner and Co-CEO at IEQ Capital. Hosts: Carol Massar and Jason Kelly. Producer: Doni Holloway.

Bloomberg News Private Equity Reporter Heather Perlberg and Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Health Care Analyst Jonathan Palmer discuss KKR's bid to buyout Walgreens. Kevin Carter, Founder of EMQQ, talks Alibaba's Singles Day and the outlook for ecommerce. Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, and Retired Marine Lieutenant General Robert Walsh break down the impact of Hong Kong protests on markets and trade negotiations. Liana Baker, Bloomberg News Deals reporter, explains Open Text's plan to buy Carbonite. And we Drive to the Close with Alan Zafran, Founding Partner and Co-CEO at IEQ Capital. Hosts: Carol Massar and Jason Kelly. Producer: Doni Holloway. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, talks about investors dealing with the noise in the markets based on geopolitical events. Julie Johnsson, Bloomberg News Aerospace Reporter, explains that Boeing says it told U.S. regulators “multiple times” that it had expanded the role of flight-control software later linked to two fatal crashes, and that Federal Aviation Administration personnel observed the system operating in flight tests before the 737 Max was certified for service. Bloomberg News Senior Trade Reporter Shawn Donnan discusses why Whisky taxes are more about China trade than investors realize. Bloomberg News Consumer Reporter Tiffany Kary shares the story of how direct to consumer subscriptions took over her life. And we Drive to the Close with Hank Smith, Chief Investment Officer at Haverford Trust. Hosts: Carol Massar Jason Kelly. Producer: Paul Brennan. 

Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, talks about investors dealing with the noise in the markets based on geopolitical events. Julie Johnsson, Bloomberg News Aerospace Reporter, explains that Boeing says it told U.S. regulators “multiple times” that it had expanded the role of flight-control software later linked to two fatal crashes, and that Federal Aviation Administration personnel observed the system operating in flight tests before the 737 Max was certified for service. Bloomberg News Senior Trade Reporter Shawn Donnan discusses why Whisky taxes are more about China trade than investors realize. Bloomberg News Consumer Reporter Tiffany Kary shares the story of how direct to consumer subscriptions took over her life. And we Drive to the Close with Hank Smith, Chief Investment Officer at Haverford Trust. Hosts: Carol Massar Jason Kelly. Producer: Paul Brennan.  Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Peter Tchir and Rear Admiral Mark Heinrich of Academy Securities discuss the political and market implications of the drone strike on Saudi oil field. Andy Browne, Bloomberg New Economy Editorial Director, explains why the U.S. and China will not have a sweeping, once-and-for-all trade settlement and that the two economies are decoupling. Bloomberg Businessweek Features Editor Max Chafkin talks about how startup Atrium is renting lawyers to other startups. Bloomberg News Sustainability Editor Emily Chasan discusses the Covering Climate Now initiative.Brad Ball, CEO at Liquid Strategies, talks about embracing market volatility. Geralyn Breig, CEO at Anytown USA, explains the importance of vetting online sellers for identity and origin. Hosts: Carol Massar and Jason Kelly. Producer: Paul Brennan. 

Peter Tchir and Rear Admiral Mark Heinrich of Academy Securities discuss the political and market implications of the drone strike on Saudi oil field. Andy Browne, Bloomberg New Economy Editorial Director, explains why the U.S. and China will not have a sweeping, once-and-for-all trade settlement and that the two economies are decoupling. Bloomberg Businessweek Features Editor Max Chafkin talks about how startup Atrium is renting lawyers to other startups. Bloomberg News Sustainability Editor Emily Chasan discusses the Covering Climate Now initiative.Brad Ball, CEO at Liquid Strategies, talks about embracing market volatility. Geralyn Breig, CEO at Anytown USA, explains the importance of vetting online sellers for identity and origin. Hosts: Carol Massar and Jason Kelly. Producer: Paul Brennan.  Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

On this episode of the Thematic Signals podcast, host Chris Versace is joined by Peter Tchir, who is the Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities. While Chris has a thematic focus, Peter’s is from the fixed income vantage point, which means he tends to focus on credit and risk. Despite the different approaches, the two discuss the US-China trade war, the swath of recent economic data and prospects for further monetary policy stimulus from both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. As they talk, Peter shares his views on why a US-China trade deal won’t be reached until the first half of 2020, why he’s not as concerned about the inverted yield curve, why fund flows into low volatility funds are a concern of his and the reason why he thinks Turkey could be the unexpected issue that upsets the apple cart in the coming months.   Have a topic or a conversation you think we should tackle on the podcast, email me at cversace@tematicaresearch.com   And don’t forget to subscribe to the Thematic Signals Podcast on iTunes!   Resources for this podcast: Peter Tchir – Twitter Academy Securities @ChrisJVersace https://www.tematicaresearch.com/ Tematica Research Cleaner Living Index Thematic Signals

Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, discusses his outlook for markets, the Fed, and current investment strategy. Hosted by Lisa Abramowicz and Paul Sweeney. 

Vi gästas av Major General James ”Spider” Marks, före detta underrättelseofficer i US Army med över 30 års tjänstgöring på ledande befattningar i USAs operationer i bland annat Irak, Korea och på Balkan. Tillsammans med Peter Tchir, chef för makroanalys på Academy Securities, och Sean George, hedgefondförvaltare för Strukturinvest reder han ut några av de … Continued Inlägget SPECIALAVSNITT – Political Risk dök först upp på Söderberg och Partners.

Don Straszheim, Senior Managing Director and Head of China Research at Evercore ISI, and Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, discuss whether China will impose retaliation tariffs on U.S. goods and how close the countries are to a trade agreement. Tina Davis, Bloomberg News Managing Editor of Energy & Commodities, explains why Chevron is abandoning its $33 billion offer for oil driller Anadarko Petroleum, the culmination of a month-long bidding war in which Occidental Petroleum prevailed over a rival five times its size. George Drake, Author of “Mentor: Life and Legacy of Joe Rosenfield," talks about Warren Buffett's endowment investing on behalf of Grinnell College which is now at $2 billion. Drake Bennett, Bloomberg Projects & Investigations Reporter, talks about his cover story for Businessweek Magazine on outerwear company Gore-Tex developing artificial corneas. And we Drive to the Close with Brent Schutte, Chief Investment Strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management. Hosts: Carol Massar and Jason Kelly.  Producer: Paul Brennan  Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Don Straszheim, Senior Managing Director and Head of China Research at Evercore ISI, and Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, discuss whether China will impose retaliation tariffs on U.S. goods and how close the countries are to a trade agreement. Tina Davis, Bloomberg News Managing Editor of Energy & Commodities, explains why Chevron is abandoning its $33 billion offer for oil driller Anadarko Petroleum, the culmination of a month-long bidding war in which Occidental Petroleum prevailed over a rival five times its size. George Drake, Author of “Mentor: Life and Legacy of Joe Rosenfield," talks about Warren Buffett's endowment investing on behalf of Grinnell College which is now at $2 billion. Drake Bennett, Bloomberg Projects & Investigations Reporter, talks about his cover story for Businessweek Magazine on outerwear company Gore-Tex developing artificial corneas. And we Drive to the Close with Brent Schutte, Chief Investment Strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management. Hosts: Carol Massar and Jason Kelly.  Producer: Paul Brennan 

Brigadier General Tata, Peter Tchir, Rachel Washburn, and Chance Mims all discuss the Trump Administration's decision to deny waivers to countries that want to buy Iranian Oil against standing sanctions.  What threats are associated with this decision?

We discuss Geopolitical & Macro Strategy concerns with brigadier General Tony Tata, Major General James Spider Marks, Peter Tchir, and Rachel Washburn.   Topics  China & Trade Taiwan, US, and China Relations India's Position Among Other Leading Nations Elections in Indonesia Russian Interference in Ukraine's Elections Volatility in Turkey Unrest in Venezuela 

Logan Mohtashami, Senior Loan Officer for AMC Lending Group, on the slowdown in the housing market. Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, on markets and current investment strategy. Damian Sassower, Chief Emerging Markets Credit Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, on two large Chinese borrowers missing payment deadlines. Austin Carr, technology reporter for Bloomberg, on why taxpayers have a lot to lose in the Foxconn and Amazon headquarter deals. Hosted by Abramowicz and Paul Sweeney.

As the U.S. develops sanctions and waivers in regard to Iran and its nuclear pursuits, what does this mean for the markets and geopolitical environment.  We have Rachel Washburn moderating a conversation between Lieutenant General Frank Kearny, Major General James "Spider" Marks, and Peter Tchir surrounding this topic.  We also discuss midterm elections and how they may impact the global risk landscape.

With the recent killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi, what are the impacts this may have on U.S.- KSA relations as well as trade in the region.  How might the markets react to this event?  What may happen to the chances for the crown prince os Saudi Arabia Mohammad bin Salman's future leadership opportunities?  Major General James Spider Marks, Lieutenant General David Deptula, Peter Tchir, and Rachel Washburn from Academy Securities have a conversation covering all of these topics.

As we look to the remainder of 2018, what geopolitical risks and concerns should we have our eyes on?  The Academy Securities team discusses how they see the remainder of 2018 playing out.  We discuss the following: Chinese Military Expansion and Trade: 0:00-4:30 North Korea: 4:31-7:31 Afghanistan: 7:32 - 9:46 US-Turkey Relatinoship: 9:47-12:11 Russia Cyber Influence: 12:12 - 15:51 Venezuela: 15:52 - 19:00 Military Presence in MENA: 19:01- 22:30 Market Commentary: 22:31 - 24:07 Senator John McCain Tribute: 24:08 - 30:36 Also, here is a link to Peter Tchir's piece titled "Don’t Be Afraid of the Big Bad BBB Bonds" As always you can reach us at info@academysecurities.com.    Academy Securities is our nation's first and only Post-9/11 veteran and disabled veteran owned and operated investment bank with strength in capital markets, public finance, fixed income and equity trading.   Academy leverages intensive past Military training, in depth current financial experience, geopolitical knowledge and broad networks. Mission-driven teams bring out the best in each other for the benefit of our clients. 

Academy Secutities Geopolitical & Macro Strategy Podcast:  We discuss the announcement recently made concerning the creation of the US Space Force.  Rached Washburn, Major General James "Spider" Marks, Peter Tchir and Andy Robinson discuss what the mission of the Space Force might be.  How will it's formation effect the other branches of the military as well as the Defense and Aerospace industry? Any questions...email info@academysecurities.com  Key Points: The creation of a Space Force is an inevitability  Discussions will surround practicality, cost, and relevance regarding existing branches of the military  Space is a domain of war – one with many facets Commerce, navigation, intelligence collection, and communications all depend on the security of space Creating a space command before a Space Force would be a logical first step - a geographic command Commanding space is not only about the safety of space but also the mastery of all the functions enabled by advancement in space  The need for a Space Force is not necessarily threat based but capabilities based  Impact on the Aerospace Industry:  The creation of a Space Force will focus on being budget neutral The long-term financial loser will be the Air Force Industry with a current footprint in space will benefit - especially for those helping the intelligence community  China, Russia, and France all have a significant presence in space The US leverages other nations current infrastructure Space is not the Wild West – it is governed – but it is not surprising to see the US trying to ensure it has total dominance in space 

Carol and her new co-host Jason Kelly speak to Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities and General Anthony Tata, Advisory Board Member at Academy Securities, about the Turkey currency crisis and possible contagion. Liz Capo McCormick, Bloomberg News Reporter, explains how women who want to manage money seem to be having better luck doing it someplace other than Wall Street. Shira Ovide, Bloomberg Opinion Technology Columnist, on her Bloomberg Businessweek story about Amazon capturing 5% of American retail spending. Elad Gil, Co-Founder & Chairman of Color Genomics, discusses his book "High Growth Handbook" on the world of startups. And we Drive to the Close with John Petrides, Managing Director at Point View Wealth Management.  Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Major General James "Spider Marks and Peter Tchir discuss Turkey and it's impact on the global economy.

Carol and her new co-host Jason Kelly speak to Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities and General Anthony Tata, Advisory Board Member at Academy Securities, about the Turkey currency crisis and possible contagion. Liz Capo McCormick, Bloomberg News Reporter, explains how women who want to manage money seem to be having better luck doing it someplace other than Wall Street. Shira Ovide, Bloomberg Opinion Technology Columnist, on her Bloomberg Businessweek story about Amazon capturing 5% of American retail spending. Elad Gil, Co-Founder & Chairman of Color Genomics, discusses his book "High Growth Handbook" on the world of startups. And we Drive to the Close with John Petrides, Managing Director at Point View Wealth Management. 

This week, Joe, Scarlet and Julie talked with Peter Conti-Brown, a Fed Historian at the Wharton School, about President Trump's break from precedent when he weighed into monetary policy, and why it's more important than it seems. Then Jens Nordvig, CEO and Founder of Exante Data, came on to discuss what we learned from Jerome Powell's two days of Congressional testimony, and why despite the flattening yield curve, he still sees plenty of stimulus coming down the pipeline. Terry Haines, Evercore ISI Senior Political Strategist, and Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, joined to have a trade war debate. Are markets being too complacent about tariffs or are they too glued to the headlines? Erika Nardini, CEO of Barstool Sports, also joined to talk about why the more than fifteen-year-old brand she runs is more like a two-year startup.

This week's episode of Academy Securities Geopolitical & Macro Strategy podcast features Major General James "Spider" Marks, Peter Tchir, & Racheal Washburn.  This episode covers NATO, Russia, and the ongoing Trade War.   If you'd like to read more of Peter's commentary and other writings, please visit www.academysecurities.com/macro

In this episode of the Behind the Markets Podcast host Jeremy Schwartz dives into a bunch of topics from Bonds and GDP to Geopolitical Developments. He talks with Peter Tchir about market dynamics and the future of currency. Then he brings on CEO of Santiago Capital, Brent Johnson, to discuss investing in gold and portfolios. Tune in and check it out! Guests: Peter Tchir - who is head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities Follow him on Twitter @TFMkts Brent Johnson - CEO of Santiago Capital Follow Santiago Capital on Twitter @SantiagoAuFund See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, on what CPI and retail sales signal for markets, and his current investment strategy. Walter Kemmsies, Economist and Chief Strategist of JLL’s Ports, Airports and Global Infrastructure Group, on the plausibility of the Trump infrastructure and financing proposal, and investment opportunities and risks. Michael Bellisario, equity analyst at Baird, on Marriott and Hilton earnings, and hospitality sector outlook. Marshall Steinbaum, Research Director and Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute, on a new report that examines a proposal for outright student debt cancellation financed by the federal government.

Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy for Brean Capital, tells Pimm Fox and Lisa Abramowicz why it's time to sell high yield. Bloomberg's Jamie Butters talks about declining U.S. auto sales. Bloomberg's Erik Wasson, discusses the Congressional spending bill that abandons some of Trump's priorities. Finally, Paul Sweeney, senior media and Internet analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses news that 21st-Century Fox is teaming with Blackstone for a bid to buy Tribune Media.