Podcast appearances and mentions of june fomc

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains that gains in the stock market are expanding to more sectors and why investors should position quickly.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.Today on the podcast I'll be discussing the changing equity market leadership.It's Tuesday, June 30th at 11:30am in New York.So, let's get after it.Something is happening in plain sight but still isn't fully appreciated by investors. The market's leadership is changing. And as usual, by the time everyone agrees that it's happening, the easier money will probably have already been made.Coming into this year, the primary differentiation to our view was that the economic and earnings outlook were much stronger than the consensus believed. That view was built around a few simple, but powerful ideas: easy comparisons after a three year rolling recession, lean cost structures, pent-up demand, fiscal support from capex incentives and tax cuts, deregulation for the banks, and a monetary backdrop that was increasingly supportive through the liquidity channel.Putting those together, the setup looked like a classic early cycle. Revenue growth returning on top of lean cost structures leads to strong operating leverage and well above trend earnings growth.Fast forward to today, and that's exactly what has happened. The median stock in the S&P 1500 is now growing earnings at a double-digit pace, the fastest since the post-COVID boom. Revenue growth has returned, with the median stock growing its top line by 7 percent. That is a rolling recovery showing up where many investors still aren't looking.For much of this year and particularly the past few months, most investors didn't want to hear that story. The Iran conflict pushed oil sharply higher. Rate-cut expectations turned into hike expectations. Faced with these headwinds, investors crowded back into the AI trade especially semiconductors and memory in particular. To be clear, the earnings revisions in semiconductors have been spectacular. The move wasn't irrational. But when something becomes the most owned, most loved, and most obvious area of the market, it becomes harder to surprise on the upside.That's where I think we are now. The hyperscalers have started to underperform, and that may be an early warning sign for semis, which are the key beneficiaries of the AI spending boom. Earnings revision breadth for semis is pressing against historical extremes. Again, this does not mean the AI cycle is over. But it does mean that the rate of change may be peaking, and when price momentum starts to fade in a crowded trade, it can lead to significant set-backs. It can also give other parts of the market room to breathe. In short, the broadening trade is back!The equal-weighted index and small caps are outperforming again. More importantly, the groups we have been recommending – Consumer Discretionary Goods, Transports, and Regional Banks – have already started to show relative strength over the past six weeks, even though positioning and sentiment remain neutral to negative. That's the kind of combination I like: better price action, improving earnings, and investors still skeptical.One reason I've been more constructive on the consumer than others is that I've also been more bearish on oil. That view was not dependent on a grand deal between the U.S. and Iran, although that obviously helps. The signals were already there. The Brent-WTI spread narrowed, and energy stocks began underperforming from the day the conflict started.The market was telling us something before the headlines confirmed it. And longer term, I think the conflict has put the world on notice: this choke point around the Strait of Hormuz must be solved. It's no longer a risk that the world is willing to tolerate. New routes, new supply, and new energy strategies are likely coming. Necessity is the mother of invention, and I would not underestimate the world's ability to adapt.A less problematic oil backdrop helps the broadening trade too. So does the Fed, at least on rates. The June FOMC meeting told us two things: forward guidance is going to be diminished, and the reaction function is now focused more squarely on inflation.My view is that falling energy prices, peaking tariff-related inflation, and contained services and housing inflation keep the Fed on hold rather than hiking this year. If that's right, lower than expected real rates could be a positive surprise for equities and another tailwind for the broadening of performance.The key variable to watch at this point is liquidity. This Fed is unlikely to be as proactive with balance sheet support, just as the real economy needs more capital for capex and the markets are dealing with more equity and credit supply. That's the near-term real risk, especially for popular momentum trades.Bottom line, the market may look choppy and even weak at the index level, over the next month, but the message underneath is improving. Earnings are broadening, oil is falling. The shift is already under way with crowded momentum trades wobbling, and the under-owned areas of the market starting to lead.Investors can either wait for it to become more certain – or position before it becomes obvious and fully priced.Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

We recap the June FOMC meeting with our US economists and rates / FX strategists. We offer our views on the hawkish messaging and how to position across rates & FX.     You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

In the Macro MATTers podcast, Matthew Luzzetti (Chief US Economist) and Matthew Raskin (Head of US Rates Research) discuss recent events moving markets. In this episode, they discuss the key takeaways from the June FOMC meeting, the first for new Fed chair Kevin Warsh

This week's conversation points to an economy that is still expanding, but with a market narrative that may be shifting. Manufacturing and services remained in expansion, job openings improved, and May payrolls came in stronger than expected, reinforcing a firmer labor backdrop ahead of the June FOMC meeting. At the same time, the team discusses early cracks in the AI trade, the potential for rotation as large IPOs approach, and why higher yields may persist. In fixed income, resilient credit markets still favor quality, while policy and inflation remain central watchpoints for portfolio positioning. Continue the conversation at our upcoming Key Wealth National Call: 2026 Mid-Year CIO Update on June 9, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 01:39 — Manufacturing, services, Beige Book, JOLTS, and May payrolls.05:16 — Middle East developments, oil inventories, and summer supply risks.08:10 — AI trade cracks, Broadcom, and the coming SpaceX IPO.16:54 — Jobs, Fed expectations, higher yields, and resilient credit.23:07 — National Call reminder and what investors should watch next. Additional ResourcesRegister Now: Key Wealth National Call: 2026 Mid-Year CIO UpdateRead: Key Questions: What's Behind the Back Up in Global Bond Yields? Key QuestionsWeekly Investment BriefSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterFollow us on LinkedIn 

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen reveals bank incomes are up but the real story is the trading side of the house driving earnings, not lending, as deposits grow faster than assets forcing banks into trading operations. He warns private credit default rates have hit a record 6%, nearly 10 times worse than bank default rates, signaling the end of the credit cycle as non-banks now lead lending. Whalen predicts double-digit inflation remains likely, expects QE5 to come despite Warsh's denials since the Fed balance sheet must grow proportionally with federal debt, and argues Fed policy is losing efficacy against external war-driven inflation that raising rates won't fix. He discusses massive housing consolidation and M&A deals coming as mortgage lenders face crushing higher rates, details how private equity is rolling up every service provider imaginable (plumbers, electricians, dentists, oncologists) and "screwing them up terribly," warns TIPS aren't reflecting true inflation, and predicts major housing lender mergers between now and year end. Whalen maintains his thesis that the Fed doesn't control long-term rates and that shrinking the balance sheet would be more effective than raising the Fed funds rate, argues the AI momentum trade is crowded and silly, and expects no action from the Fed in June but potential rate hike language removal from statements. Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira847Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Introduction - Bank Income Up, Stocks Sideways01:00 Banks recap5:06 Private credit default rate record 6% - 10x worse than banks6:14 Who's most exposed to private credit losses?7:36 Reversal in low rate environment impact9:39 Kevin Warsh and Fed balance sheet strategy10:01 Double-digit inflation still likely?10:40 What were worst impacts of QE?11:00 Housing was the headline impact of QE12:43 Fed housing subsidy went outside their mandate12:51 Fed is progressive institution out of control13:49 We may be closer to QE5 than Bessent knows15:05 Fed balance sheet must grow with federal debt16:04 New leadership - what about Fed funds rate?16:18 Potential for cut or hike?18:06 Base case still stagflation?20:12 Private equity excess cash looking for yield22:10 Politics of housing affordability daunting23:35 Viewer questions - TIPS24:26 Municipal bond default risk 26:24 Why higher inflation won't drive down gold28:42 AI craziness - momentum market29:31 Trump wanted cuts but prospects disappearing29:54 June FOMC - don't expect action31:20 Fed balance sheet more important than Fed funds rate33:11 Next week - bank report Monday

This week, the market told two stories and chose to believe the second. The first played out in the bond market. The second played out in technology.In this episode we unpack why the vigilantes won the week and then stood down, how Andy Burnham was forced to recant his economic platform without a single vote being cast, what NVIDIA's parabolic demand means for the AI CapEx broadening across Asia, why three trillion dollars of imminent listings will reshape portfolio allocation, and why Kevin Warsh's swearing-in at the White House sets up June 16 as the most consequential FOMC meeting in years. We also examine the K-shaped consumer split exposed by Walmart, the structural Hormuz toll question Iran is quietly institutionalising with Oman, and the gap between Rachel Reeves' price-cap proposals and operating reality on the British high street.Sponsored by Finance Talking and Brought to you by Progressive EquityFollow me at HyperNormalTimes on Substack. Primary: bond vigilantes, NVIDIA earnings, SpaceX IPO, Kevin Warsh Fed, AI CapEx, sovereign bond yields, 30-year Treasury, G7 finance ministers, Anthropic revenue, quantum computing CHIPS ActSecondary: Jensen Huang parabolic demand, KOSPI rally, SK Hynix, Andy Burnham fiscal rules, Rachel Reeves price cap, FOMC minutes, Yardeni Buzz Lightyear, Citi Lekovich sentiment, Buffett ratio, Strait of Hormuz tolls, Iran Oman, Walmart K-shaped consumer, University of Michigan sentiment, IPO super cycle, OpenAI IPOLong-tail / search: why did bond yields fall on hawkish Fed minutes, what does NVIDIA Q1 2026 earnings mean for AI cycle, SpaceX IPO valuation $2 trillion, Kevin Warsh Fed chair June FOMC, Iran Hormuz toll system explained, K-shaped economy retail earnings, three trillion IPO super cycle equity allocationThis podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

Who is the real Kevin Warsh? Having been sworn in as the Fed's 17th chair, the Warsh era at the FOMC has begun. But with inflation proving sticky and Fed independence under the microscope, how will he balance the committee's dual mandate? What might he do differently than his predecessor, Jerome Powell? And how will he handle President Trump? On this episode of Making Sense, Alexa Hanelin talks to Michael Feroli, J.P. Morgan's chief U.S. Economist, to forecast the path of the Fed and examine what may be in store at the June FOMC meeting and beyond. This episode was recorded on May 22, 2026.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively, J.P. Morgan) normally make a market and trade as principal in securities, other financial products and other asset classes that may be discussed in this communication. This communication has been prepared based upon information from sources believed to be reliable, but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to J.P. Morgan and/or its affiliates and an analyst's involvement with any company (or security, other financial product or other asset class) that may be the subject of this communication. Any opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. J.P. Morgan Research does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Any opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned or related to the information herein. Periodic updates may be provided on companies, issuers or industries based on specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. However, J.P. Morgan may be restricted from updating information contained in this communication for regulatory or other reasons. This communication may not be redistributed or retransmitted, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of J.P. Morgan. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitutes your agreement not to redistribute or retransmit the contents and information contained in this communication without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of J.P. Morgan. © 2026, JPMorganChase & Co. All rights reserved.

In the latest Macro MATTers podcast, Matthew Luzzetti (Chief US Economist) and Matthew Raskin (Head of US Rates Research) discuss recent events moving markets. In this episode, they discuss the June jobs report, takeaways from the June FOMC meeting and subsequent Fedspeak, and a variety of other topics including SLR reform, foreign purchases of US Treasuries, and developments related to trade and fiscal policy. (Note: This podcast was recorded on July 3rd just after the release of the June employment report.)

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week to report on dampened economic projections, forecast two potential rate cuts in the remainder of the year, and reaffirm the wait-and-see approach that has been a hallmark of Fed policy thus far in 2025. Our experts analyze what came out of the meeting, how investors should respond, and what the future may hold. We also break down the key provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act as passed by the U.S. House of Representatives, what comes next in the Senate, and highlight four provisions that may impact you.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerCynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio ManagementJoe Velkos, National Tax Director, Key Wealth02:12 – The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report showed a 0.9% month-over-month dip in May, and April figures were revised to a 0.1% decline.03:12 – U.S. industrial production fell by 0.2% in May, according to the Federal Reserve. 03:54 – At this week's FOMC meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%.04:07 – We look at key economic projections, including a lowered GDP growth median, higher inflation projections, and increased unemployment forecasts. 05:03 – The median FOMC forecast sees two 25 basis points cuts in 2025, though there appears to be disagreement among members with some expecting no rate cuts in 2025, while others expect only a single 25 basis points cut this year.06:10 – The markets and analysts weigh in on the probability of rate cuts this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious and confirmed the Fed is positioned to respond as needed, especially considering uncertainty around the impact of upcoming tariffs on inflation.10:45 – A discussion on who might succeed Jerome Powell as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve.12:54 – Uncertainty across several fronts signals a wide range of possible outcomes in international and domestic markets and politics. For investors' portfolios, diversification will be as important as it's ever been.15:14 – Joe Velkos, National Tax Director for Key Wealth, joins us to walk through the “One Big Beautiful Bill” passed by the House of Representatives on May 22.19:07 – The bill faces opposition in the Senate, including among Republicans, making it unlikely that the bill will remain unchanged or that it will be passed before July 4th, as is President Trump's goal.20:18 – We highlight four key provisions of the bill: an increase to the maximum state local tax deduction, an increase to the lifetime gift and estate tax exemption, restoring the bonus depreciation for business owners, and the new proposed elimination of tax on tips and overtime pay. Additional ResourcesWatch the replay of our June 11 National CallKey Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

The Federal Reserve decided yet again to hold interest rates steady at the June FOMC meeting. But CRE sees a turning point. This week, Avison Young CEO Mark Rose said the decision was irrelevant anyway. The CRE recovery isn't coming soon, he said. It's here now.Register on Bisnow.com to join next Friday's conversation live, or check back here for the conversation after it airs. 

The Federal Reserve may cut faster and to a lower interest rate then the market is pricing, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey says on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series. Jersey flies solo on this episode, discussing his takeaways from the June FOMC meeting, his view on the timing and pace of rate cuts and what it would mean for the Treasury yield curve.

19th June: Blockchain DXB podcast

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas recapped an action-packed month full of uncertainty. Weak US fundamentals with the jobs data remaining mixed while inflation continues to come in softer suggesting that the Fed is behind the curve. George then previewed our expectations for the June FOMC meeting where he notes that the US data has deteriorated enough that the Fed may use this meeting to pivot towards a more dovish stance to gain flexibility to ease at future FOMC meetings.

Sam Stovall examines the latest inflation data believing it to be a possible reason the Fed could consider cutting rates as soon as the June FOMC meeting. Within the report, he looks at the 4.0% year-over-year increase in Shelter prices. Sam believes the Fed could cut rates twice this year, and sees an upward trend in equities citing the 200-day moving average as a technical study to track.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

This week Jason ‘connects the dots' to make sense of market performance, this in the wake of last week's inflation data, along with the outcome of the June FOMC meeting. We also consider emerging geopolitical risks, and upcoming macro factors. Plus, share CIO's current investment outlook and positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US equities were mixed this week as the S&P and Nasdaq posted solid gains, while the Dow and Russell 2000 were both lower. This week's upside driven in large part by another rate rally and more soft landing optimism after the May CPI and PPI reports added to the disinflation traction narrative. The June FOMC meeting ended with no change to the benchmark rate at 5.25-5.50% as expected.

US equities finished mostly higher in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones closing down 9bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed up 85bps and 153bps respectively. risk-on sentiment was driven by renewed disinflation traction from a cooler than expected May CPI print, with headline flat and core up only 0.2% m/m. Little surprise from today's June FOMC meeting. Fed left rates unchanged, as expected, and updated dot plot showed just one rate cut in 2024. Oracle missed but stock rallied on strength in RPOs, upbeat 2025 guidance and new AI-driven cloud deals.

In today's episode, we're breaking down an action-packed Wednesday in the markets, driven by May's CPI data release and key comments from Fed Chairman Jay Powell following the June FOMC meeting. We'll dive into the exciting market reactions, discuss new highs across major indexes, and analyze the impact of lower-than-expected inflation numbers.

US equities finished mixed in Tuesday trading, ending near best levels and seeing the S&P and Nasdaq both set fresh record closes. Several smaller themes were in play today, but the big narrative is that the market is in waiting mode ahead of tomorrow's May CPI and June FOMC releases, though few surprises are expected from either report, and market sentiment has largely coalesced on the Fed remaining on hold until at least September. Today's $39B 10Y note auction was stronger than expected, stopping through by ~2bp and taking some pressure off yesterday's weak 3Y note auction.

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, gets us caught up on what has been happening in global macro and markets, with a focus on recapping the May NFP jobs report, which he believes wasn't as strong as the headlines suggested, and that it is another report that demonstrates there are clearly macro divergences forming in various parts of the labor force. George also provides his thoughts on what to look out for in the CPI report, where we are waiting to see if the shelter costs ever come down enough to pull inflation readings lower. Meanwhile, the CPI report takes place ahead of the June FOMC meeting where we are keenly focused on the dots (interest rate estimates) and the terminal level estimates for the core PCE inflation reading published in the summary of economic projections (SEP) by the Fed. In addition, will Chair Powell sound dovish (and echo some of the same concerns that the strategy team has around the true health of the jobs market) or will Chair Powell be hawkish. Chair Powell has threaded the needle lately with his communications, but if markets deem that his message is hawkish, after a hawkish release of the dots, a major risk-off would be in store.

Major US equity indices were down for the week, though helped by a solid post-NFP gain on Friday. The week's big theme was the notable backup in Treasury yields driven by some firmer economic data (particularly a strong March jobs report and a hotter-than-expected ISM manufacturing reading). It was also another week overflowing with Fedspeak, again centered on an appearance by Chair Powell and again doing little to shift the broad narrative of a possible start to rate cuts at the June FOMC meeting.

Our Global Macro Strategist explains the complex nature of recent U.S. economic reports, and which figures should matter most to investors.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Macro Strategy. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll talk about what investors should take away from recent economic data. It's Thursday, February 29, at 4pm in New York.There's been a string of confusing US inflation reports recently, and macro markets have reacted with vigor to the significant upside surprises in the data. Before these inflation reports, our economists thought that January Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation, or PCE inflation, would come at 0.23 per cent for the month. On the back of the Consumer Price Index inflation report for January, our economists increased their PCE inflation forecast to 0.29 per cent month-over-month. Then after the Producers' Price Index, or PPI inflation report, they revised that forecast even higher – to 0.43 per cent month-over-month. Today, core PCE inflation actually printed at 0.42 per cent - very close to our economists' revised forecast.That means the economy produced nearly twice as much inflation in January as our economists thought it would originally. The January CPI and PPI inflation reports seem to suggest that while inflation is off the record peaks it had reached, the path down is not going to be smooth and easy. Now, the question is: How much weight should investors put on this data? The answer depends on how much weight Federal Open Market Committee participants place on it. After all, the way in which FOMC participants reacted to activity data in the third quarter of 2023 – which was to hold rates steady despite encouraging inflation data – sent US Treasury yields sharply higher.Sometimes data is irrational. So we would take the recent inflation data with a grain of salt. Let me give you an example of the divergence in recent data that's just that – an outlying number that investors should treat with some skepticism. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS, calculates two measures of rent for the CPI index: Owner's equivalent rent, or OER, and rents for primary residences. Both measures use very similar underlying rent data. But the BLS weights different aspects of that rent data differently for OER than for rents.OER increased by 0.56 per cent month-over-month in January, while primary residence rents increased 0.36 per cent month-over-month. This is extremely rare. If the BLS were to release the inflation data every day of the year, this type of discrepancy would occur only twice in a lifetime – or every 43 years.The confusing nature of recent economic data suggests to us that investors should interpret the data as the Fed would. Our economists don't think that recent data changed the views of FOMC participants and they still expect a first rate cut at the June FOMC meeting. All in all, we suggest that investors move to a neutral stance on the US treasury market while the irrationality of the data passes by.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcasts app. It helps more people to find the show.

Dairy Herd will eventually stabilize and start to grow again We will begin 2024 with 50,000 fewer heifers than we did in 2023 Milk output will begin to grow again by spring flush Buyers should be defensive and buy into weakness to extend coverage Cocoa Fundamentals are only now starting to catch up to the price move we have already seen Lag in arrivals and projected deficit is growing as we near the mid-point of the main-crop More price increases by large branded companies are expected as cocoa continues to trade at 47-year highs High prices will cause demand destruction manifest in retail sales figures Economy & energy First rate reduction at June FOMC: 100bp total 2024 Core CPI falls to 3% and holds GDP averages closer to 1%, maybe a slight negative quarter mixed in S&P makes new record high, but returns come back down to earth in the 6-8% range Crude oil breaks the $68 soft floor and averages $65 despite an EIA forecast of $78 Sugar # 11 sugar will trade up to mid-20s before coming back to current levels # 16 market will remain just below High Tier imports 2025 sugar negotiations will mirror 2024 negotiations Corn Acreage may lose to soybeans Ethanol demand stalls Exports robust Ending stocks remain over 2.0 billion bushels Wheat U.S. crop to reach 2 billion bushels next year, despite fewer planted acres Global stocks recover: 267 to 270 MMT La Niña watch in late 2024 Edible oils Soybean oil use for biofuel to reach or surpass 13.4 billion lbs Despite this, soybean oil futures may finally meet their “new normal”: listen for that number! McKeany-Flavell's Spring Market Seminar coming April 17, 2024! Mark your calendars, registration opens in January! Happy New Year! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Jeffrey Rasinski, Consultant Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services  

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, expects the Fed to deliver one more hike of 25bps at the upcoming July FOMC meeting. The FOMC statement should not see major tweaks at this time of the year, largely given that it's a July meeting that sits between Jackson Hole and the September FOMC meeting updates (and also because the June FOMC meeting saw the Fed upgrade its forecasts on growth, inflation and rates).   In order for the Fed to keep all options open and avoid hinting that this may be their last hike they need to keep forward guidance in place by keeping this phrase largely unchanged “In determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate.”  As George has mentioned before, until chair Powell strikes out the inflation concerns from the opening remarks in the presser, they are focused more on fighting inflation versus being overly concerned about the trajectory for growth. The presser is what ultimately determines how markets read chair Powell's tone if this July hike was a dovish, neutral, or hawkish hike. We are leaning on the neutral to hawkish side.

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, reflects on the price action and economic developments of the 1st half and provides us with thoughts on some of the risks that may lie ahead in the 2nd half. George believes that the markets caught a big break on the back of overly defensive posturing resulting in investors having to chase performance and close out short-positions and underweight level to benchmarks during the start of the year. Granted economic conditions in the U.S. were more favorable than initially feared, the overall global backdrop, especially on manufacturing side continues to weaken. Meanwhile we have central banks that have returned to hiking and the Fed has signaled that they are not done either after having skipped at the June FOMC. In our view, after a somewhat muted reaction to Fed tightening we believe the long and variable lags may actually hit harder now as we go through the 2nd half. George remains skeptical the regional bank crisis is fully resolved and that coupled with off-shore dollar liquidity draining could serve as a catalyst for risk-off.  

This episode is sponsored by KraneShares's KRBN ETF is the 1st, largest, and most liquid carbon ETF. Please read the prospectus before investing at https://kraneshares.com/KRBN/realvision. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. KRBN is distributed by SEI Investment Distribution Company (SIDCO). Julian Brigden, co-founder and president of MI2 Partners, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the market's reaction to today's June FOMC minutes and explore what may happen with unemployment leading up to the U.S. jobs report on Friday. Plus, Julian will look at the mechanics of the U.S. dollar and discuss its trajectory from here. Want to learn more from Julian? You can reserve your spot at the MI2 Partners Global Macro Summit here: https://mi2partners.com/global-macro-summit-early-bird-rv/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

S&P Futures are trading lower this morning. Semiconductors and Cloud stocks are weaker due to heighten tensions between China and the U.S., Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen heads to China tomorrow. China's economic trajectory is in focus today as the Caixin PMI data came in lower than expected. This afternoon the Fed will be releasing the minutes from the June FOMC meeting. European indexes are lower and oil prices are pricing in the latest production news from the OPEC meeting against a weakening global economy.

DoubleLine's Jeffrey Mayberry and Samuel Lau on the final day of June review the markets for the week of June 26-30 and also provide performance snapshots for the month, second quarter and year-to-date. After bidding farewell to LIBOR*, Jeff and Sam discuss the S&P 500's performance (3:05), including the big performers and laggards as well as the healthy shot in the arm from AI companies. In their recap of fixed income (8:44), they discuss the Rip Van Winkle effect in regard to 10- and 30-year U.S. Treasuries despite some large fluctuations amid March's banking crisis. It was a rough half-year for commodities (14:24) while Bitcoin's performance (up 85%) looms large (16:31). Over in Macro Land (17:12), quarterly GDP numbers are starting to look stronger than expected while the week also delivered a mixed bag of economic numbers, including prints on home prices, jobless claims, personal income and savings, and the latest PCE. Next week (23:11), which includes the Fourth of July holiday, will deliver the June FOMC meeting minutes and JOLTS numbers, and we'll see where the manufacturing and services prints land in terms of expansion and contraction. *If you would like to hear more on the history of LIBOR and why it was shown the door, check out: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mmm-2021-mar-week-3/id1556154252?i=1000513939317

As the U.S. Economy still angles for a soft landing, the recent Federal Open Markets Committee meeting may have left more questions than answers.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll discuss the outcome of the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting and our outlook for the U.S. economy. It's Thursday, June 22nd at 10 a.m. in New York. Hawks and doves entered the battlefield at the June FOMC meeting, wrangling over the extent to which further rate hikes might be needed and how forcefully to convey that. As expected, the FOMC held rates steady at 5.1% and maintained a tightening bias in the statement. But it's also important to note that the statement included an ever so slight change in language that made further rate hikes seem less certain. So in all, this suggests the Fed could raise rates later this year, although when thinking about the very next meeting we think the bar to hike in July is much higher than market pricing implies. And the new summary of economic projections, which is made up of Federal Open Market Committee participants projections for things like GDP growth, the unemployment rate, inflation and the appropriate policy path, FOMC participants revised up the policy path for this year by a full 50 basis points. So that would imply two more 25 basis point rate hikes. They also lifted their growth projections for this year, they revised down the unemployment rate and they revised upward their core PCE inflation forecast. So all in all, that's a summary of economic projections that skewed very hawkish. Now, we find the upward revision to core PCE most perplexing as incoming data on inflation had been in line with the Fed's forecasts, and especially as key measures of core services inflation have consecutively softened. Now in relation to our forecasts, we think this sets up core inflation to fall faster than the Fed currently projects, which should offset the takeaways from a higher peak rate in the DOT plot. The core inflation projection for this year and the level of the Fed funds rate could get revised downward by the time the FOMC meets in September. In our latest outlook, we continue to see a soft landing for the U.S. economy this year, with inflation and wages slowly easing, as well as job gains. Now consistent with this expectation, we continue to look for the Fed to hold the peak rate at 5.1% for an extended period before making the first .25% cut in March 2024. Like the Fed, we have to be humble here and we do see the effects of banking stresses on the economy as highly uncertain, and we'll hone our expectations for the economy and monetary policy as the incoming data unfold. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

After a rundown of the markets and macro news for June 12-16, DoubleLine's Jeffrey Mayberry and Samuel Lau cover the June FOMC meeting and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell's press conference (15:31). The federal funds rate remained unchanged, and Sam goes through what that meant for the interest charged on reserves, the overnight reverse repo facility*, the amount available to borrow at the banking window and the caps on quantitative tightening (QT). He then recaps the Summary of Economic Projections (17:32), which maintains the Fed's hawkish stance on potential tightening (a position echoed in post-meeting Fedspeak (13:12)). Jeff then runs down Powell's Other Way 'Round Bro press conference (20:57), where in a break from tradition Powell's comments bolstered market activity as the event went on. Jeff discusses how similar Powell's language was to the last press conference, flagging exceptions such as the Fed chair's parsing of “skip” and “pause” in regard to the June rates decision. Once again, Powell masterfully avoided any answers on QT policy. In the breakdown of the market week, Sam notes that risk assets really liked Wednesday's Fed move (2:11), with the S&P 500 surging, while fixed income shrugged off the hike break (4:36). Commodities scored their second up week in a row (6:52) and Bitcoin was flat (8:25). Macro Land (9:18) had a very busy week beyond the FOMC meeting, including CPI and PPI prints as well as retail sales numbers and jobless claims. Next week's holiday-shortened week will bring a run of Fed officials speaking in public (32:43). This episode was recorded before market close on June 16, 2023. *For more on the overnight reverse repo facility, check out: MMM Episode 112: Red Week, Recession Metrics and the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility

US equity futures are indicating a higher open as of 05:00 ET. This follows broad strength in Asia, while European equity markets are higher. The Fed is expected to maintain the fed funds target range at 5.00-5.25% at the June FOMC meeting today. There is more follow-through on China stimulus headlines, as China's NDRC announced 22 measures aimed at reducing costs for businesses this year.Companies Mentioned: Advanced Micro Devices, UnitedHealth, CVS Health, Humana

US equities finished mixed in Wednesday trading after some choppiness following the June FOMC meeting, with the Dow Jones closing down 68bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed up 8bps and 39bps respectively. The Fed left the funds rate unchanged at 5.00-5.25%, as expected; however, the median dot in the SEP jumped 50bp to 5.6% vs the 25bps expected, implying two more rate hikes. Headline PPI came in cooler than expected for May, falling to the slowest annual pace since December of 2020, and Core PPI print was in line.

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, returns to highlight the scenarios he is expecting at the upcoming June FOMC meeting and the potential market implications. George thinks the aim will be to deliver a hawkish skip, will the markets hear that or something entirely different is what we will be trying to assess. Post Fed we think markets should turn their attention from inflation fears and central bank action towards the growth outlook. We believe quarter-end/month-end has the potential for some early fireworks before we get into the start of summer.

US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, having stayed in largely the same range throughout the session. The CPI is out of the way while the Fed is on tap for tomorrow, with the Fed expected to maintain the fed funds target range at 5.0-5.25% at the June FOMC meeting. May CPI was largely in line with expectations with y/y headline growth the slowest since April of 2021.

Indian benchmark indices — Sensex and Nifty 50 — are set to open higher on June 12 as rising bets of a rate pause by the US Federal Reserve aided sentiment, ahead of domestic retail inflation data later in the day. India's NSE stock futures listed on the Singapore Exchange were up 0.37 percent at 18,679.50, as of 7:57 am. On Friday, Wall Street equities closed at new highs for 2023 on rising odds of a rate hike pause by the US central bank in its upcoming meeting on June 14.  Back home, the Indian market closed with minor cuts following what was a range session. Meanwhile, Brent crude is down for the second consecutive week below $75 per barrel. Later in the day, India will report its CPI inflation data for the month of May. Last month, the annual retail inflation cooled to an 18-month low in April, below the Reserve Bank of India's upper tolerance level of 6 percent, as food prices softened. Inflation as measured by the annual change in the consumer price index (CPI), eased to 4.70 percent in April from 5.66 percent in the previous month. Meanwhile, the US CPI data for May is due tomorrow. Another thing to watch out for is the precursor to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 13 and 14. According to Reuters, there is a 71 percent chance of a pause in the June FOMC meeting which will be the first time since early 2022. Last week, the domestic market recorded minor gains and was up for the third straight week. Many stocks are at fresh 52-week highs like Axis Bank, Britannia, IndusInd Bank and Indian Oil Corporation. Tune in to Marketbuzz Podcast for more news and cues ahead of today's session

US equities stronger in an extremely quiet week, with the market's attention pulled ahead to next week's May CPI report and the June FOMC meeting decision.

Equity markets traded within a tight range on Tuesday while investors wait for the June FOMC policy announcement. The announcement is scheduled for next Wednesday and will determine the next big move for equities. Given the acceleration of inflation in recent data, the FOMC will likely be hawkish in its stance, but it may not hike rates again. The risk is the CPI data due out the day before the release. The CPI may confirm the acceleration of inflation and lead the FOMC to surprise the market. Either way, the economy is in a new "normal" that will dominate the S&P 500 price action for years. The key level to watch on the S&P 500 is 4,300. That is the top of a critical resistance zone that capped gains for over 12 months. If the market can rise above this level, it will probably retest the all-time high. Moving up to a new all-time high is another matter and may not happen, given the odds of a recession have risen above 70% and are still rising.

The Reserve Bank of Australia shocks markets again, hiking rates for a second consecutive time after having paused once before, and thereby setting precedence for the June FOMC next week, when the Fed is expected to “skip” a rate hike. Weston Nakamura explains the significance of the RBA's policy behavior to other major central banks. Weston also shows how and why AUD matters to risk assets, such as the S&P500 index, and explains how the (in)famous AUDJPY carry trade works - noting that AUDJPY is currently re-correlating with the S&P500 price action. Finally, Weston shares his big revelation of the day with regards to his ongoing working theory of the China policy insider trading - discovering that he may have been incorrect in his reading of the China Property and Development Sector indices' price action, but in doing so, ultimately provides more clarity on what may be happening in the peculiar market behavior in Chinese equities. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Our conversation examines the potential paths ahead for the markets in the wake of the May employment report and as we drawer closer to the June FOMC meeting. We also touch on expectations for the monetary policy course from here and discuss how investors should consider positioning their portfolios. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Ashley Still, SVP and Creative/Digital Media Lead at Adobe, discusses the company's AI push. Laird Landman, Generalist Portfolio Manager at TCW, joins the program to talk markets and investing. Quincy Krosby, Chief Global Strategist for LPL Financial, joins the program to talk about markets, outlook for the economy, and the upcoming June FOMC meeting. Jess Larsen, CEO of Briarcliffe Credit Partners, discusses private credit and the economy.  Hosts: Paul Sweeney and Madison MillsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, returns to give us an update on the current status of the debt ceiling negotiations. He explores scenarios of how this impasse may conclude and potential market implications. George also takes us through his latest Fed thinking, taking into account all of the recent Fed speakers. He also provides us with a mini-preview of what to expect at the June FOMC meeting. George looks further down the road on how the Fed may shift towards easing and what to do with QT and the supersized RRP. Lastly, if that was not enough to get one's arms around, George provides a list of what else is on his risk radar.

Mortgage rates are coming down, and so is the Housing Starts & Permits report for March 2023 positive? Scott Bauer is surprised that the housing market is recovering this quickly. The Federal Reserve is examining every piece of the economy and how the data will feed into the jobs market. Next, Bauer weighs in on the upcoming May and June FOMC meetings.

Making eurodollar futures interesting is not among Fed chair Jay Powell's goals, but he's achieved it nonetheless. From just after their June FOMC meeting through Thursday, the market has lopped over 0.50% off the projected rate cycle. The cycle peak has even been brought forward, from March 2023 to this coming December. The FOMC's Statement […]

In this video I talk about - Macro outlook after the June FOMC meeting - When to expect monetary policy capitulation - Macro impact on crypto market going forward - Web 3.0's long term potential & missing ingredient Related article: Truth & Bullsh*t of Web 3.0 https://taschalabs.com/truth-bullsht-of-web-3-0/ Subscribe to my free newsletter: https://taschalabs.com/newsletter/Subscribe to Tascha Labs Podcast | Crypto Investment through Macro Lens | Web3 | Blockchain on Soundwise

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Noel Hebert, BI Chief US Credit Strategist, and Angelo Manolatos, BI Senior Associate Interest Rate Strategist. Jersey shares his thoughts on the June FOMC meeting, which he calls a “dovish 75-basis point hike” as Chairman Jerome Powell's comments that interest rate increases of that magnitude wouldn't be common, and said he expects the Federal Reserve will raise the federal funds rate to over 4%. Hebert then discusses the fundamentals, technicals and valuation of the investment grade and high yield corporate bond markets. He notes a shift in investor preference toward floating rate loans and the challenges some companies may have as rate increases bump up interest expense. Hebert also reviews some sectors he's concerned with, and others which may outperform as the Fed tightens monetary policy. In this episode's Fun Fed Facts segment, Manolatos reviews the Fed's summary of economic projections and the dot plot, noting how, if the high dot for year-end is realized, there would need to be at least one additional 75-bp move before year-end. LIVE Event Coming UpFed's Powell Remarks at Inaugural Conference on Int'l Role of US Dollar06/17 13:35 Set Reminder | LIVE » Related tickers:

J.P. Morgan Economist Michael Feroli joins US Rates Strategists Jay Barry, Phoebe White and Alex Roever to discuss their thoughts on the June FOMC meeting. This podcast was recorded on June 15, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

In today's episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves discusses his FOMC preview for the upcoming June meeting. George expects more hawkish signals from the Fed as they continue their fight against persistently high inflation. This will likely come about with the first 75bp hike since the 1994 hiking cycle, as well as a meaningful jump higher in the rates dot plot. The risk of the Fed introducing a balance-sheet unwind facility to make the QT caps whole is also lurking in the wings. On the dovish side, it would be odd if the Fed does not do 75bps, but that is a risk as is the risk they highlight recent market vol.  Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Our conversation recaps the recent inflation data and market response - plus, we preview what to expect from the June FOMC meeting and explain how to position your portfolio for the current environment. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

There is an important distinction between the near-term reversal we are seeing in stocks and the longer-term fundamental weakness, says Kevin Gordon. He discusses what to expect from the June FOMC meeting which begins tomorrow. He goes over how near-term it looks like the market is taking out its counter-trend, short-lived bear market rally. He also goes over how investors need to get comfortable with the reality that we may already be in a bear market. He then goes over the importance of consumer strength to the economy. Tune in to find out more.

Hear thoughts on the May CPI print and other macro data points of interest from the past week, along with a preview of the June FOMC meeting. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office.

View the PDF Version here.  Equities: U.S. Equities: By our measures the U.S. equity markets remain significantly overvalued as they continue to hover around all-time highs which is indicative of lower expected returns on average over the longer-term.  While Fed Chair Powell indicated at the June FOMC meeting that the time had come to begin... The post August View from the EDGE® appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3wHmfOL   - Today we look at the ongoing unwind of the reaction to the very hot US June CPI print from earlier this as the market seems unwilling to take a stand on rising inflation, and perhaps as well after Fed Chair Powell stuck to his guns on the Fed's attitude toward "transitory" inflation in testimony before Congress yesterday. Also, a breakdown of USDCAD after the Bank of Canada meeting yesterday, a look at whether gold is set to fully reverse its declines since the June FOMC meeting, another look at weak participation in the US equity market rally and more. Today's pod hosted by John J. Hardy. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

U.S. equities finished mostly higher and just off best levels in trading, rallying after some mid-morning weakness. There wasn't much new from June FOMC minutes, as officials said "substantial further progress" toward goals has not yet been met, but a number said they expect conditions for taper to be met earlier than previously expected. Today's biggest story continues to revolve around the sharp decline in long-term rates and continued pullback of reflation trade.

In this episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, George Goncalves, returns to recap, once again, what has felt like an unrelenting rally in long-term rates. He also previews what to look out for in the June FOMC minutes and more broadly what to expect from the Fed and economic data over the course of the third quarter.   George's view is that the Fed is clearly ready to start working on a taper road map but the conditions in the economy and markets need to be just right. If data continues to remain solid with healthy job growth and stock markets avoid a major correction over the quarter, then at the September FOMC meeting the Fed could announce its tapering plans, starting with reducing mortgage bond purchases first. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

In this episode of our Week Ahead series, in the US, our focus will be on the June FOMC minutes and the ISM services. In Europe we're watching the ECB strategy review and the UK's reopening decision ahead of German ZEW's, then further afield to the RBA meeting. Finally we look at the global state of markets, Covid-19, and the key events and data releases to keep on your radar.  

H1 2021 is already drawing to a close. As of June 27, more than 25 million Japanese have been vaccinated against COVID-19. Campaigning for the Tokyo Assembly elections began June 25, and voting starts on July 4. These events will be watched as a possible harbinger of a Lower House election this fall. At this stage, the ruling coalition is expected to prevail, which would limit any political stresses. JPY cross-currency flows have been more active than USDJPY, JPY rates, and JPY basis price action. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the latest in Japanese and foreign investor cross-border flow, BoJ's inaugural JPY interest rate incentivized deposit amount breakdowns, and JPY cross-currency arbitrage opportunities. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis.   Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

The states of emergency around Japan were lifted with the exception of Okinawa on June 20. Seven prefectures have now shifted to focusing on how to contain the spread of COVID-19. Campaigning is underway ahead of the Tokyo Assembly election on July 4, and preparations are going ahead for the Tokyo Summer Olympics and Paralympics. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks have fallen and topside for USDJPY and Japan stocks have been heavy since the FOMC's June meeting. JPY basis has started to widen ever so slightly after the FOMC hiked the IOER and reverse repo rates. At its June meeting, the BoJ agreed to begin considering how to address climate change. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses last week's BoJ meeting, JPY cross-currency trading in the wake of the June FOMC meeting, and Japanese investor activity across domestic and foreign bond markets in May. He also shares his views for Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

The Fed made the decision to keep interest rates near zero, in their June FOMC meeting. We discuss how investors should digest the news. Plus, Biden has returned to Washington after his first summit with Vladimir Putin. We speak with Eamon Javers about the key takeaways from the meeting. And Brian highlights the top five stocks seeing the most insider buying action this week.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss their takeaways from the June FOMC which featured a more hawkish outlook from the Summary of Economic Projections, an acknowledgement that the Fed might be underestimating the likely path of inflation, and a technical adjustment to the Fed's administered rates. They conclude with a brief discussion on what tapering will likely mean for credit spreads later this year.

In this episode of our Week Ahead series, first we look to the US with the June FOMC meeting, will they discuss tapering and raise their 'dot plot' for fed hikes to come? Next, we have the G7 meeting, the ECB strategy review, UK CPI, the BOJ meeting and RBA minutes. And finally, we take a look at the global state of Covid-19, the other key events in Asia, and the data releases to keep on your radar.

Alan Blinder was the Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System under President Bill Clinton. In this episode, we seek to answer questions on the Fed’s unprecedented actions in light of the COVID-19 crisis and their long-term implications, from whether the injection of liquidity is propping up the financial markets in unhealthy ways, to whether the lack of coordination between fiscal and monetary policies could potentially exacerbate inequality like after the 2008 financial crisis… We say that the Fed’s actions have been unprecedented because it not only pledged to buy an unlimited quantity of government debt, but also decided to support even some of the riskiest corporate bonds; it lowered the target rate to 0-0.25 percent and announced in the June FOMC meeting that it’s not even “thinking about thinking about raising rates…” Is the Fed well-equipped to mitigate the economic effects of a pandemic? In the process, how can we manage the public expectation so that the Fed is not being given “mission impossibles?” The Fed’s “Main Street” lending to small/medium sized businesses has somewhat pushed the Fed to uncharted territory. While Prof. Blinder believes that the Fed is doing a better job of injecting money into Main Street than it did in 2008, he acknowledges that the Fed is primarily equipped to support large corporations, and as such may play a role in exacerbating inequality. He also argues that the financial system has grown too large, to the point where “the tail is wagging the dog.” An expert on the 2008 financial crisis, Prof. Blinder walks us through a series of critical comparisons. Today’s crisis is not one created by housing bubbles or elaborate financial instruments, so there generally seems to be less resentment among everyday Americans towards financial elites. But by stepping into junk bond territory, the Fed has effectively backstopped some of the biggest names in the hedge fund and private equity industry and some of the most aggressive speculators. Will there be a strong reaction against financial elites similar to the one we saw in 2008-09 with the Occupy Wall Street movement? A lot of studies have been done on how the 2008 financial crisis bailout exacerbated inequality in the U.S. One reason often given by economists and journalists is that the monetary policy response was adequate, but the fiscal stimulus didn’t follow suit. How do we ensure that the same doesn’t happen again? How can the Fed and the Treasury be smarter and attach more conditions to the loans and grants they make to large corporations? In a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed, Prof. Blinder dismissed concerns over the inflationary impact of the Fed’s radical monetary policies as “Scarlett O’Hara questions” about the long-term effects of the Fed’s monetary policy – specifically on the deficit and on inflation. He argues that these potential issues are not particularly pressing or worrisome and that these are questions to be dealt with after the coronavirus crisis is averted: “I’ll think about that tomorrow.” In this episode, we probe deeper into the reasoning behind this idea, and whether the fear of the deficit or inflation might undermine the economic recovery in the short and long run. Full bio: Alan Blinder is the Gordon S. Rentschler Memorial Professor of Economics and Public Affairs at Princeton University. He previously served as the Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System under Bill Clinton, as well as on Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisors. Blinder is one of the leading voices in the discourse surrounding fiscal and monetary policy, and has written many best-selling books, including the latest “Advice and Dissent: Why America Suffers When Economics and Politics Collide.”

It came as no surprise that the Federal Reserve left monetary policy right where it is at the June FOMC meeting. Kevin Flanagan discusses how fixed income investors should position their portfolios.

Thoughts and reflections on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Congressional testimony, a recap of the June FOMC meeting minutes and notable macro data-points, a look at what is driving oil markets, an update on trade negotiations and the week ahead. Host: Daniel Cassidy

This episode previews the June FOMC.

This is the week of the June FOMC meeting, although it's really going to be a dud For a while there was speculation that the Fed was going to pull the trigger and increase interest rates for the second in almost 10 years - for the first time this year I don't know if anybody expects the Fed to raise rates on Wednesday - it's a 2 day meeting, it gets started tomorrow and we get the announcement on Wednesday afternoon Brexit was one of the things they were concerned about Now the polls are showing that a British exit of the EU is becoming more and more likely and that was one of the things supposedly the Fed was concerned about I think all that is an excuse - they're really concerned about the U.S. bubble economy and domestic problems But they don't want to acknowledge that so they want to rationalize their decisions with problems abroad That vote is looking like it may go the wrong way as far as the powers that be are concerned I've already mentioned on this podcast that if I were in Britain, I would vote to go It's not because I'm anti free trade, I'm for free trade - it's just that the EU is no longer about free trade That was its initial pretext and it might have been a good idea, but no idea that involves more government can ever be good The problem with government is that it grows and grows and grows Like the camel getting its nose under the tent That's what happening in the EU and the British are finally saying we've had enough It's too bad the British don't have enough with their own big government, but they don't want big government imposed from Brussels Whatever benefits member nations got in the beginning from freer trade, they've lost from regulations, taxation and micro-management coming out of the EU As I said before, the only reason there was a need for the EU is because governments impose too many tariffs and regulation and theoretically the solution was to let some other entity circumvent all the other government regulation And they made the deal with the devil and it didn't work out But the same thing is true in the United States The original American colonies all made a deal - we came together, abandoned the Articles of Confederation we went for a less weak central government and we passed the Constitution of the United States But the problem is, the Federal government is not abiding by its constitutional restraints on its powers The Federal government is not acting the way the framers envisioned, it has usurped powers that were not granted to it in the Constitution, so the Federal government is no longer a benefit to the United States, just like the EU is not longer a benefit to Europe The difference is, the EU disintegrated a lot quicker The U.S. government lasted for a much longer period of time, and was a positive factor for the colonies But the EU quickly degenerated Every time you can remove a layer of government, you restore more freedom and prosperity So I wish the British luck with their revolution So this is just one more cloud on the horizon providing a reason for the Fed not to raise rates this week A more important reason is the stock market Once again on the decline, the NASDAQ is down a little over 2% over the last 2 days The Dow Jones is down about 1.5% - down a little more than 130 points today Meanwhile gold continues to rise The last 2 days it was up about $15 - nothing huge, but it is making progress toward the $1300 level It was up about $10 today - we closed around $1284 I don't know if the Orlando terrorist event had anything to do with the weakness in the market today - probably not But psychologically, events like that probably take some kind of a toll And it may take a toll later in consumer confidence numbers, which by the way, are already on the decline I read that the terrorist who attacked the Orlando night club was originally looking at Disney World It could have been a lot worse

Eric Sprott discusses the renewed rally in precious metals and looks forward to the June FOMC meeting scheduled for next week.

Brexit may be slowing expectations for European growth but the latest polls are pointing to no exit for the U.K., reflected in gains underway for the pound. Action in the U.S. is definitely coming alive as new home sales, in the latest sign of consumer confidence, posted a giant gain and talk builds for a June FOMC rate hike. Still, global growth is generally low, a concern for the G7 which is urging nations not devalue their currencies.

(Bloomberg) -- Taking Stock with Kathleen Hays and Pimm Fox. GUEST: Joel Stern, Chairman and CEO of Stern Value Management, on the Fed's monetary policy, and what he forecasts for the June FOMC meeting.