Capital Economics Weekly Briefing

What's going to happen in this Middle East crisis? The fact that no one knows is the key point for investors grappling with an exceptionally fluid situation.In this week's podcast, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explores the scenarios we've outlined so clients can assess how the Israel-Iran conflict could unfold. He also draws a distinction between risk and uncertainty – a critical distinction that matters when trying to understand the implications of global crises like this one.Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, joins to explain how markets have been reacting and what kind of volatility to expect as decisions near on US involvement in Israeli strikes, the imposition of ‘Liberation Day' tariffs, and a crucial vote on US tax cuts in the Senate.Also in this episode, Kiran Raichura, our Chief Commercial Real Estate Economist, previews our new Asia-Pacific CRE coverage, explains why we're expanding now, what clients can expect, and what our early analysis says about the region's investment recovery.Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Read: Mapping out Israel-Iran conflict scenariosKey Issue: Iran-Israel conflictDrop-In: Russia's rising macro and market risks as war drags onRoundtable: Opportunities and risks in the shadow of US trade protectionism

Following Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear and military targets, and Iranian counterstrikes, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing lays out what investors should be watching for across macro and markets. Among other issues, Neil also explains:Why – as things stand – this situation shouldn't influence the Fed meeting in the coming week;  What the latest inflation data signal about how tariffs are working their way through the global economy; Whether a 'shadow' Fed chairman would tackle Donald Trump's problems with the current incumbent What to make of the past week's round of US-China talks in London.Also on the show, Commodities Economist Hamad Hussain talks about China's stranglehold on global rare earths supply, how the demand picture will change in the wake of the latest US-China agreement and why Western governments haven't done more to find alternatives to Chinese sellers. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:The Israel-Iran escalation and global marketsIsrael's strikes on Iran: assessing the macro impactDrop-In: Israel-Iran military strikes – Assessing the global economic implicationsFiring Powell would just be the beginning of the Fed's endLimited US-China “deal” suggests ambitions are lowRare earths “deal” won't be the final wordCapital Economics Events

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks the latest data to assess the impact of Donald Trump's tariffs, including signs that the effects of tariff front-running are now unwinding. He also discusses how businesses are navigating the ongoing uncertainty and why the Bank of England is trailing the ECB in cutting interest rates.Also on the show, Senior Economic Adviser Vicky Redwood explores what NATO's proposed push to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP could mean for economic growth, and the fiscal constraints that may stand in the way. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Read: A European defence revolution?Read: Will defence spending turbocharge economic growth?Drop-In: India Outlook – Can the economy and markets continue to outperform through 2025?Drop-In: How the UK's economic backdrop is shaping its fiscal choicesCapital Economics Awards

After another week of twists and turns in the Trump trade policy roll-out, Stephen Brown from our US team and Jonas Goltermann from our Markets team are on the show to talk about what comes next. In their conversation with David Wilder they touch on:Where tariff rates are likely to end up, even as “reciprocal” tariffs work their way through the courts;How worried the bond market really is about the US fiscal picture;If the US economy is continuing to show resilience in the face of higher tariffs;Whether the post-Liberation day rally in equities has run its course.Also on the show, Justin Chaloner, our Head of Data Economics, explains what our data is showing about the impact of tariffs on global trade and highlights a new data tool that tracks how Chinese exporters are funnelling goods through lower-tariff economies.  Analysis and events referenced in this episodeRead: Revising back up our forecast for the S&P 500Read: Is US equity exceptionalism back for good?Capital Economics Data ExplorerRead: The implications of lower quality UK economic data

Donald Trump jolted markets on Friday with a threat to slap steep tariffs on the EU. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing jumped back on the podcast to join David Wilder and unpack whether this is classic brinkmanship – or something more serious. In the original recording, Neil also discusses recent bond market moves following the House's approval of Trump's “big, beautiful” tax bill, and reflects on the enduring lessons from Liz Truss's chaotic spell as UK Prime Minister.Also on the show:Paul Dales and Ruth Gregory dissect the UK macro outlook and what's gone wrong with the official data.Hamad Hussain from our Commodities team explains why structural forces are setting gold up for new record highs later this year.Analysis and events referenced in this podcastData: Tariff Impact Modelhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/tariff-impact-modelRead: Trump threat of 50% tariffshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-rapid-response/trump-threat-50-tariffsData: Global Trade Stress Monitor https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/global-trade-stress-monitorMarkets Drop-In: Europe's outperformance vs the state of US exceptionalismhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/markets-drop-europes-outperformance-vs-state-us-exceptionalismRead: Gold prices to take a breather before the next leg uphttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/commodities-update/gold-prices-take-breather-next-legCommodities Drop-In: OPEC+ talks, gold's pullback, metals and tariffs and morehttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/commodities-drop-opec-talks-golds-pullback-metals-and-tariffs-and-more

Things are looking up after the US and China de-escalated their trade war, but is the global economy off the hook? In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tells David Wilder why the tariff situation is looking brighter, but also identifies the key flashpoints to watch in the coming weeks. John Higgins, our Chief Markets Economist, is also on the show to talk about the financial markets angle to this turnaround in global sentiment. He sees more upside for US equities, even after the notable gains of recent weeks, and isn't convinced that investors have set themselves up for a fall. Plus, following the launch of our ‘Future of Europe' series, Franziska Palmas discuss how Germany's economic outlook is looking a bit more optimistic, but also why the bloc's biggest economy will continue to struggle – and what that means for boosters of the idea of the EU becoming a third geo-economic pillar alongside the US and China. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Global Trade Stress MonitorCapital Daily: US big tech is back … but not at China's expenseCapital Daily: Back to the future?Capital Economics EventsData: Global Markets ForecastsThe Future of Europe

One deal down. Many, many more to go. Except there was less to that much-touted US-UK trade deal than either government is suggesting and far tougher US talks with China and the EU are still to come.In this week's episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Head of China Economics Julian Evans-Pritchard unpack what was actually agreed between the US and UK, and look ahead to this weekend's pivotal US-China negotiations in Switzerland.Julian discusses the outlook for China's exports following their remarkable post-pandemic surge and considers what further stimulus measures might be on the cards. Neil assesses the broader state of global trade ahead of the looming expiration of Donald Trump's 90-day reciprocal tariff pause.Neil also offers a preview of our major upcoming series on the future of Europe – an in-depth project that cuts through the recent optimism to deliver clear-headed analysis, robust data, and compelling presentations.Events and analysis referenced in this episodeThe Future of EuropeData: Tariff Impact ModelData: China Labour Market Indicator

If you're looking for evidence of the negative hit from Donald Trump's tariffs, you'll struggle to find it in the hard data. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics minutes after the release of the US employment report for April to talk about how economies have been holding up in the weeks since the ‘Liberation Day' announcement. In his conversation with David Wilder, he addresses the key issues of the moment, including:What Q1 US GDP data and port data aren't telling us about the negative hit to impact on economies from tariffs;Whether markets have become too complacent about the tariffs impact;How the tariffs threat will influence the Federal Reserve and Bank of England at their meetings in the coming week.Plus, ahead of a key OPEC+ meeting on Monday, David Oxley and Olivia Cross from our Commodities & Climate desk talk about what recent signals from Saudi officials could mean for already-weak oil prices. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:Global Drop-In: The Fed, Bank of England and ECB – Making sense of the latest rate decisionsData: Central Bank HubDrop-In: Which economies could gain if the US turns away from China?Read: Will Asia benefit from China's plunging US exports?Drop-In: The future of OPEC+, oil prices and the Gulf

Another rollercoaster week in Trumpland wound down with markets buoyant on reports of more White House softening in its approach to tariffs and China taking steps to ease restrictions on some US imports. But are things really looking up? And, if so, why hasn't the dollar bounced with equities?Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, are on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to assess whether there has been a fundamental improvement in the outlook, or if this is a case of investors smoking too much “hopium”. In a wide ranging chat, they discuss:What the latest economic data suggest about the impact of higher tariffs;The chances that the US and China engage enough to get a deal done;Whether King Dollar could be overthrown – and the risks of a dollar crash. Events and analysis referenced in this episodeRecording: Is the dollar's global dominance a casualty of tariff chaos?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-dollars-global-dominance-casualty-tariff-chaosANZ Drop-In: Australia's election, RBA easing and the economic outlookhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/anz-drop-australias-election-rba-easing-and-economic-outlookDrop-In: 100 Days In – The economic impact of Trump's second term so farhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-100-days-economic-impact-trumps-second-term-so-far

Neil Shearing has been in back-to-back meetings with global institutions who – like everyone – are trying to make sense of Trump's chaotic trade policy roll-out, not least the recent decision to pause "reciprocal" tariffs for 90 days. The Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics joins the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing to address some of the questions that have kept coming up in those sit-downs with clients, including:What the global trading picture might look like when the 90-day tariffs “pause” endsWhy we think US growth risks have risen but we still don't expect a recession How the Federal Reserve will play slower growth with higher inflationWhat curbs on Nvidia chips tells us about decision-making amid Trumpian uncertainty If there's a US-China trade deal to be doneAnalysis referenced in this episode:Read: Will tariffs drive a flood of Chinese exports elsewhere?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/will-tariffs-drive-flood-chinese-exports-elsewhereRead: Is China offloading its dollar assets?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-focus/china-offloading-its-dollar-assetsData: Tariff Impact Model (TIM)https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/tariff-impact-modelRead: US Outlook - Scaled-back tariffs not an existential threathttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-economic-outlook/scaled-back-tariffs-not-existential-threatRead: ECB Policy Announcement (April 2025)https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-rapid-response/ecb-policy-announcement-april-2025

As the dust settles after another of week of dramatic policy shifts, the picture that has emerged is a familiar one from Trump's first term: China is the main target after all. China isn't taking Trump's tariffs lying down. Instead, it has hit back tariff for tariff so that both sides are now applying tariffs to each others' goods of well above 100%. In this week's episode, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing asks Mark Williams, our Chief Asia Economist, why China is adopting a more combative approach to Donald Trump than other countries and what that suggests about the future of the relationship. Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown offers some scenarios for what might happen next with tariffs and their impact on growth across the global economy. And the team cast their eyes further ahead to discuss whether the tumult of the last couple of weeks may end up accelerating the fracturing of the global economy into US and China-aligned blocs or instead drive more former US allies closer to China.  Events and analysis referenced in this podcast:Read: Mapping out trade war scenariosMapping out trade war scenarios | Capital EconomicsRead: China and US still in an escalatory loopChina and US still in an escalatory loop | Capital EconomicsMeet: TIM - the Capital Economics Tariff Impact Model Tariff Impact Model | Capital EconomicsWatch: The escalating trade war and its economic and market effectsDrop-In: The escalating trade war and its economic and market effects | Capital Economics

At the end of one of Lenin's “weeks when decades happen”, senior economists from Capital Economics briefed clients on the implications of the news that China is retaliating aggressively to Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs plan, including whether Europe could follow suit and how much more pain is in store for markets. In this edited extract from that briefing, Neil Shearing, Mark Williams, Andrew Kenningham and Jonas Goltermann tackle everything from what China has just done to why the dollar has been acting strangely to what could push Brussels to fight back hard against the White House's reciprocal tariffs.Events and analysis referenced in this podcast:Watch: Trump's reciprocal tariffs – China retaliates and the market's responsehttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-trumps-reciprocal-tariffs-china-retaliates-and-markets-responseRead: China hits back, hardhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/china-hits-back-hardRead: Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/answering-your-questions-about-liberation-day-tariffs

There's a “whiff of stagflation” around the US economy – and that's even before Donald Trump rolls out his reciprocal tariffs plan. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing hops off a plane from New York and onto The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to give his take on the latest US consumption and price data, to preview March payrolls and to talk about what this all means for the US and global macro outlook. He's joined by Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, who explains what all of this means for US markets exceptionalism.Also on this week's episode, our China Activity Proxy is our long-running proprietary read of what's really happening with Chinese economic activity. Leah Fahy from our China team is on to discuss what the latest read of this widely followed indicator says about the trajectory for Chinese growth in 2025. Analysis referenced in this episodeThe beginning of the end of US exceptionalism?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/asset-allocation-update/beginning-end-us-exceptionalismGlobal Economic Outlook: Trade war to dampen, not derail, global growthhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economic-outlook/global-economic-outlook-trade-war-dampen-not-derail-globalData: China Activity Proxyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/china-activity-proxyCAP: Weak start to the year for China's economyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-activity-monitor/cap-weak-start-year-chinas-economy

Could a ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord' fix what ails the US balance of payments? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on the show this week to tackle the various ideas around what the Trump administration could do to address long-standing global imbalances. He also warns that uncertainty around the Trump trade agenda may not dissipate with the release of the reciprocal tariffs plan on 2nd April and explains how this is all feeding into central bank uncertainty about the policy path ahead. Also on the show, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory talks about what to expect from Rachel Reeves' upcoming fiscal statement, but also discusses the Chancellor's spending challenges in a more dangerous world that demands a forceful UK security posture. And Senior EM Economist Liam Peach explains resurgent risks around Turkey's economy and markets after the arrest of President Erdogan's key political rival plunged the country back into crisis.  Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Europe Outlook: Zeitenwende!https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economic-outlook/europe-outlook-zeitenwendeGlobal Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and Bank of England March meetingshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-fed-ecb-and-bank-england-march-meetingsUK Drop-In: Spring Fiscal Forecast reaction – Macro and market implications of Reeves' statementhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/uk-drop-spring-fiscal-forecast-reaction-macro-and-market-implications-reeves-statementData: UK Employment Indicatorhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/uk-employment-indicatorEmerging Europe Weekly: Turkey fallout, Polish rate outlookhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/emerging-europe-economics-weekly/emerging-europe-weekly-turkey-fallout-polish-rate

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses what the latest signals from the US economy say about recession risk. He talks about what the coming week's retail sales data might say, and how they might swing the debate around a downturn. Neil also previews the coming week's Fed decision, a haul of start-of-the-year China data and explains why talk of increased defence spending won't mean an automatic boost for economies.Also on the show, Senior Global Economist Ariane Curtis talks about why we don't think Donald Trump's policy agenda will have an impact on the global economy over the long term. She talks about how the ranking of the top 10 biggest economies could change between now and 2050 and which are set to benefit most from the rollout of AI. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Event: Drop-In - The Fed, ECB and Bank of England March meetingshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-fed-ecb-and-bank-england-march-meetingsData: China Activity Proxyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/china-activity-proxyRead: Will defence spending turbocharge economic growth?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/will-defence-spending-turbocharge-economic-growthDrop-In: Is US equities exceptionalism dead?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-us-equities-exceptionalism-deadRead: Global megatrends will outweigh Trump disruptionhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/long-run-economic-outlook/global-megatrends-will-outweigh-trump-disruption

In light of Donald Trump's decision to push the button on tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins a special episode of the Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about whether this signals the start of a global trade war. He also discusses what's coming next and whether signs of US economic weakness could prompt a shift in the White House's trade strategy.China Economics Head Julian Evans-Pritchard, Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Chief EM Economist William Jackson are also on the show to talk about the economic implications for China, Canada and Mexico, and how their governments might respond. Events referenced in this episode:Global Drop-In: Trump tariffs hit China, Mexico and Canada – Macro and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-trump-tariffs-hit-china-mexico-and-canada-macro-and-market-implicationsChina Drop-In: 2025 NPC – Setting policy goals in a trickier global environmenthttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/china-drop-2025-npc-setting-policy-goals-trickier-global-environment

In the latest Capital Economics Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing breaks down just how the policy uncertainty emanating from the Trump administration is – and isn't affecting – the global economy. He also previews the February US employment report and whether Musk's layoffs will impact the national labour market and the opening of this year's National People's Congress in Beijing.Also on the show, what's the view of Trump's tariff threats from India? Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah calls from Mumbai after a week of meetings with business, government and media to talk about why Narendra Modi's administration thinks it can dodge this bullet, as well as the macro environment and RBI response. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Could uncertainty weigh on the global economy?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/could-uncertainty-weigh-global-economyChina Drop-In: 2025 NPC – Setting policy goals in a trickier global environmenthttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/china-drop-2025-npc-setting-policy-goals-trickier-global-environmentCAP: Official data underplays China's 2024 weaknesshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-activity-monitor/cap-official-data-underplays-chinas-2024-weaknessIndia Weekly: Tariff manoeuvres, RBI shifts priorities, the long-run viewhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/india-economics-weekly/india-weekly-tariff-manoeuvres-rbi-shifts-priorities-long-run

It's been an extraordinary week in geopolitics, with direct US-Russia talks, a war of words between Washington and Kyiv and Europe swept by fears about the end of the US security backstop. But how much has really changed? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham are on the Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about separating the reality from the headlines. They discuss intensifying strains between the US and Europe, the constraints on any breakdown in relations, global economic fracturing and the outlook for European defence spending and how it will be funded.Also this week, in an exclusive excerpt from our recent client briefing on the issues around the Ukraine war, Senior EM Economist Liam Peach talks about what a potential peace deal could mean for the region's economies and how US-Russia relations are set to evolve. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Explore: Global economic fracturinghttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/fracturing-global-economyDrop-In: German election 2025 – The new government's domestic and global challengeshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-german-election-2025-new-governments-domestic-and-global-challengesEM Drop-in: EM financial risk update – The state of sovereign, bank and FX vulnerabilitieshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/em-drop-em-financial-risk-update-state-sovereign-bank-and-fx-vulnerabilities

Why did markets greet the latest White House tariffs announcement so warmly? Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about the influence of Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs plan on investor sentiment and discuss where the much-vaunted 'Trump trade' goes from here. The episode's main item is all about Germany. With voters in the euro-zone's biggest economy heading to the polls on 23rd February, Andrew Kenningham and Elias Hilmer from our Europe team talk about what the next government could look like. They address whether the anticipated governing coalition will have the appetite to overhaul the country's stalled growth model, and how Germany will fare in a world increasingly shaped by Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.Analysis and data referenced in this episode:Euro-zone Drop-In: German election 2025 – Macro and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/euro-zone-drop-german-election-2025-macro-and-market-implicationsGerman economy post-election: from bad to not much betterhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-focus/german-economy-post-election-bad-not-much-betterData: Euro-zone Debt Sustainability Monitorhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/euro-zone-debt-sustainability-monitorThe slow agony of Germany's auto industryhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-focus/slow-agony-germanys-auto-industry

It's been a drama-filled week in Trumpland and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to take stock of what happened, what didn't happen, and the implications for macro and markets.As well as discussing the lessons learned from Donald Trump's trade actions so far, Neil reviews the latest US labour market data and talks about why Europe and the US appear to be on such divergent economic paths.Also on the episode, China Economist Leah Fahy talks to Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah about her striking new analysis which shows how China is taking market share from low-end EM manufacturers, upending a long-standing theory about how these economies industrialise in the process. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:EMs and the suspension of US aidhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/emerging-markets-economics-update/ems-and-suspension-us-aidDrop In: Global Inflation Watch - How US and EU inflation paths are diverginghttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-global-inflation-watch-how-us-and-eu-inflation-paths-are-divergingCommodities Drop-In: Trump tariffs and global commodities marketshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/commodities-drop-trump-tariffs-and-global-commodities-markets

Donald Trump ended weeks of speculation on Saturday with the formal announcement of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China. As those countries respond, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder on this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about whether this marks the beginning of a global trade war. Neil addresses the immediate economic threats to Canada and Mexico, but also explains why these tariffs end the chance of any more rate cuts from the Fed. He also discusses what further action Trump could take against US trade partners – not least China – and the broader risks to the global trading environment. For more on the Trump policy agenda and its macro implications, see this dedicated page:https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/trumps-second-term

Donald Trump unsurprisingly dominated the news cycle in his first week back in office. To make sense of some of what the president has pledged, threatened and suggested so far, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing was on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss what we know about tariffs, how global central banks are meant to navigate this more uncertain new environment and whether the Fed is in for a particularly contentious relationship with the White House. Plus, the new president has already made a big splash in oil markets, including an Inauguration Day pledge to “drill baby, drill” and a call for Saudi Arabia to lower prices. David Oxley, Kieran Tompkins, Olivia Cross and Hamad Hussain from our Commodities and Climate team address the issues that Trump has raised around oil and explain why downside risks to prices have just grown. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Central Bank Hubhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/central-bank-hubRead: Strong dollar is a problem for tomorrowhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/strong-dollar-problem-tomorrowEvent: Fed, ECB and BoE – Unpacking the first rate decisions of 2025https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-fed-ecb-and-boe-unpacking-first-rate-decisions-2025Read: What to make of Trump's National Energy Emergency?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/commodities-focus/what-make-trumps-national-energy-emergencyRead: How low could oil prices go if Saudi open the oil taps?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/commodities-update/how-low-could-oil-prices-go-if-saudi-open-oil-taps

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing calls in from Singapore to The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about what's known and unknown about Donald Trump's policy agenda just days before he is sworn in again. He discusses the tone set by Trump's first inaugural address, what we've learned from recent confirmation hearings and the inflation impact of a gradual rise in tariffs. Neil also talks about why our China Activity Proxy is telling a different story from official Chinese GDP data and explains why the UK has so much potential in the AI revolution.Also on the show, fresh from his team being named most accurate forecaster of major global stock indices by LSEG Data & Analytics for a second straight year, Chief Markets Economist John Higgins talks about why we expect 2025 to be another strong year for US equities. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:CAP: Weaker fiscal support behind growth slowdownhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-activity-monitor/cap-weaker-fiscal-support-behind-growth-slowdownUS continues to lead the way on our AI indexhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/us-continues-lead-way-our-ai-indexUS Drop-In: Inauguration Day special – Knowns and unknowns around Trump's second termhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/us-drop-inauguration-day-special-knowns-and-unknowns-around-trumps-second-termWhy we expect the S&P 500 to thrive in 2025https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/equities-focus/why-we-expect-sp-500-thrive-2025

A grim week for bonds was capped by a stunningly hot US jobs report. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann joined the first episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics of the year to explain what these jobs numbers signal about the health of the US economy and how the Fed could respond. They also discuss the fall-out in global bond markets, including why gilts have been under particular pressure despite the Labour government's efforts to prove its fiscal bona fides with the investors.  Analysis and events referenced in this episode:UK Weekly: Gilt market is not in crisis, but it does cause problemshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-weekly/gilt-market-not-crisis-it-does-cause-problemsChina Weekly: More weakness in store for the renminbihttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-weekly/china-weekly-more-weakness-store-renminbiCapital Economics eventshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events

The final Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics of the year has Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing making sense of that December Federal Reserve meeting and explaining what the latest PCE data say about the inflation outlook and where rates are heading in 2025. He also addresses why hopes for a sweeping ‘Mar-a-Lago accord' (or 'Plaza Accord 2.0') that would tackle US-China currency imbalances are likely to be disappointed. Plus, a dramatic plunge in the value of Brazil's real shows how far investors have fallen out with Lula's spendthrift administration. In an exclusive clip from our client briefing on Brazil's crisis, William Jackson, Jason Tuvey and Jonas Goltermann discuss the real's fair value, the effectiveness of FX intervention and what the government needs to do to get investors back onside. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:The Fracturing of the Global Economyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/fracturing-global-economyData: Bank of England Caseometerhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/bank-england-caseometerEM Drop-In: Brazil's currency crisis – Economic and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/em-drop-brazils-currency-crisis-economic-and-market-implicationsData: EM Financial Risk Indicatorshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/em-financial-risk-indicators

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing outlines the three big policy quandaries facing three big DM central banks. He unpacks the ECB's December decision, previews the upcoming Fed and Bank of England meetings and talks about which of these institutions faces the greatest risks in 2025.Neil also talks about whether China's policy pivot will translate into meaningful efforts to support and rebalance the economy, discusses what events in Syria say about geopolitics and the macro narrative and highlights a key risk for the coming year. Plus, following our dive into the big macro themes for 2025, Chief Markets Economist John Higgins is on the show to talk about the financial markets outlook – including why we think a bubble in US equities will keep inflating over the year. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2025 policy outlookhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-fed-ecb-and-boe-december-meetings-and-2025-policy-outlookLatest quarterly Outlookshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/outlooksWeek-ahead Forecastshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/week-ahead-forecasts

This is a special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics all about the themes that will shape the global economy in 2025. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown stepped out of our client event in London on 4th December to talk to David Wilder about the 2025 growth story. They discussed how Donald Trump's policy pledges will – and won't – affect US and global macro variables in the coming year, whether creaking public debt profiles will stir up the bond vigilantes, the limits of geopolitics as a driver of the macro story and more. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Five for 25: The macro themes that will shape next yearhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/five-25-macro-themes-will-shape-next-yearDrop-In: The World in 2025 – The global macro and market outlookhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-world-2025-global-macro-and-market-outlook

It was déjà vu all over again this week after a social media post from Donald Trump rattled markets. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss how seriously we should treat the president-elect's online threat to impose sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. He also talks about whether moves in the bond market suggest that China is turning Japanese and warns of a distorted November US payrolls report.Plus, a lot of time is spent analysing which economies are going to lose out when Trump returns to the White House, but what about the potential winners? Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah explains how Indian manufacturing could get a boost in an intensified global trade war. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Event: The World in 2025https://www.capitaleconomics.com/world-2025-event-december-2024How to think about tariffshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-tariffsGlobal Drop-In: US tariffs – How they'll work, what they'll do and how the world will respondhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-us-tariffs-how-theyll-work-what-theyll-do-and-how-world-will-respondData: China Activity Proxyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/china-activity-proxyIs a bubble in India's stock market deflating?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/equities-focus/bubble-indias-stock-market-deflating

This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics is an exclusive extract from our online Drop-In briefing following Donald Trump's threat to impose massive tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. Was this a negotiating ploy from the president-elect? Who'll pay the cost of higher tariffs? How would targeted countries respond? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing, Vicky Redwood, our Senior Economic Adviser, and Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham answered these questions and more in our day-after briefing.Analysis and events referenced in this episode: How to think about tariffshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-tariffsCanada, China and Mexico in Trump's firing line​https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/canada-china-and-mexico-trumps-firing-lineDrop-In: US tariffs – How they'll work, what they'll do and how the world will respond https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-us-tariffs-how-theyll-work-what-theyll-do-and-how-world-will-respond

Discussion on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics attempts to avoid any mention of Donald Trump – and fails almost immediately. But Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing's point is that there is a lot going on in the world besides regime change in Washington. He talks to David Wilder about why inflation is worrying markets, why Chinese stimulus hopes were dashed, and what Nvidia's earnings say about AI's potential. Plus, despite escalation in the war in Ukraine, speculation is also building about an end to fighting when Donald Trump takes office next year. Senior EM Economist Liam Peach talks about what this could look like and its potential implications for the Ukrainian, Russian and broader European economies. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:London Event: The World in 2025https://www.capitaleconomics.com/world-2025-event-december-2024Is Nvidia a sign that the AI boost for US equities is over?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/capital-daily/nvidia-sign-ai-boost-us-equities-overTrump and the war in Ukrainehttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/emerging-europe-economics-update/trump-and-war-ukraineDrop-In: Trump, OPEC, China – What's driving oil prices in 2025?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-trump-opec-china-whats-driving-oil-prices-2025

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing hops off the plane from New York and hops onto the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to explain what Donald Trump's cabinet nominations signal about the macro policy outlook, how Europe and China could respond to tariffs and the economic implications of removing millions of migrant workers from the US economy.Plus, as the initial, post-election euphoria in US financial markets wears off, Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann discusses what lies ahead for equities, bonds and currencies. 

As the dust settles on that momentous election outcome, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses what is known and unknown about the coming Trump administration. He talks about potential guardrails on the president-elect's policy pledges and talks about how central banks – not least the Fed – can navigate this trickier policy environment. Plus, at the end of yet another widely anticipated Chinese stimulus announcement, Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams explains the disconnect between what the market wants to hear from the leadership in Beijing and what the leadership is prepared to do to support the economy. Analysis referenced in this episode:Key Issue: Trump's second termhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/trumps-second-termTrump, tariffs, tech controls, Taiwan & Chinahttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/trump-tariffs-tech-controls-taiwan-chinaWhat happened to the fiscal stimulus?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/what-happened-fiscal-stimulusSlowdown still has a lot further to runhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/slowdown-still-has-lot-further-run

In the wake of Donald Trump's stunning election victory, our senior economists briefed clients ahead of the New York open on its macro and market implications. In this exclusive clip, you'll hear Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talking to Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth and Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, on the key issues around the aftermath of Election Day, including:What Trump's policies could mean for US growth, inflation and Fed policy;How financial markets are likely to react in the coming weeks as this news beds in;The growing US public debt threat and whether – and when – the bond vigilantes could really assert themselves. Drop-In: Trump's second term - Macro and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-trumps-second-term-macro-and-market-implicationsKey Issue: Trump's second termhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/us-election-2024

Ahead of the year's big political event, The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics includes an exclusive clip from our client briefing all about what to expect from the US election. Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams and the team tackle everything from Kamala Harris' fiscal plans to how the euro could react to which candidate the Chinese Communist Party would prefer to deal with. (Watch the full briefing here.)Plus, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory unpacks the market response to the UK Budget and explains how Rachel Reeves' fiscal plans could shape the UK's monetary policy outlook.Analysis and events referenced in this episodeRegister Now: Drop-In: US election aftermath – Trump vs Harris and the state of unionhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-us-election-aftermath-trump-vs-harris-and-state-unionKey Issues: US election 2024https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/us-election-2024Will the BoE start to cut interest rates quicker?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/boe-watch/will-boe-start-cut-interest-rates-quickerHow worrying is the surge in Gilt yields?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/bonds-equities/how-worrying-surge-gilt-yields

After weeks of leaking and background briefings, Rachel Reeves finally revealed her debut UK Budget. Paul Dales, Diana Iovanel and Andrew Kenningham held an online client briefing about the Chancellor's tax, borrowing and spending plans and what they mean for the UK economy and markets. This exclusive extract focuses on:What this Budget means for growth and Bank of England policy;How financial markets received the Budget news and where gilt yields are heading;What this Budget could mean for the UK housing market. 

Perhaps the most frequently asked question of the Capital Economics is around fiscal risks and their implications for financial markets. There were more incoming this past week as Donald Trump looked to be doing better in the polls and more details about the UK Budget trickled out, all against a backdrop of rising bond yields. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses what's behind the rise in yields and how bond investors perceive government commitments to getting a grip on public debt in the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. There's more on the UK Budget too, with a preview of what to expect from Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Wednesday statement from Chief UK Economist Paul Dales and Deputy Chief Economist Ruth Gregory.Plus, Canada's population could shrink for the first time in over 150 years if Ottawa's stringent new immigration targets are met. That has huge implications for the country's economic outlook and for Bank of Canada policy, as Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown explains. Analysis referenced in this podcast:Payrolls preview: Temporary disruptions to stymie recent strengthhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-employment-report-preview/temporary-disruptions-stymie-recent-strengthWill Treasury bulls be able to face down the bond vigilantes?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/bonds-focus/will-treasury-bulls-be-able-face-down-bond-vigilantesKey Issue: What to expect on UK 2024 Budget dayhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/uk-2024-october-budgetCanada's population decline will drag down GDP growthhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/canada-economics-update/population-decline-will-drag-down-gdp-growth

Donald Trump says ‘tariff' is “the most beautiful word in the dictionary”. That's up for debate – but what's less arguable is that raising taxes on imports as much as the Republican presidential candidate is threatening would be bad trade policy, according to Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing. He's on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss why tariffs would hurt the US economy and the economies of its key trading partners, all while failing to achieve Trump's objectives. Also on the show, Hamad Hussein from our Climate and Commodities team explains why reports of cooling electric vehicles sales in the US and Europe paint an incomplete demand picture, and what that all means for oil appetite.Plus, an exclusive extract from our post-ECB client briefing on the Governing Council's next steps – including whether its last move of the year could be a super-sized rate cut. Analysis and events referenced in this podcast:Read: How Trump could erode the US economic advantage in a fractured worldKey Issue: US Election 2024Read: Why we expect the S&P 500 to soar in 2024Watch: What will follow another ECB rate cut?Read: Taking stock of the two-speed electric vehicle rolloutData: Long-term Energy Scenario Generator

It's a rare thing for a press conference from China's Minister of Finance to excite quite so much, but there were widespread hopes in markets that Saturday's briefing from Lan Fo'an would finally provide the details of fiscal easing plans that had been missing from the government's stimulus pledges so far. Did Minister Lan deliver? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his assessment on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics and discusses what the leadership needs to deliver to boost confidence in its steering of the economy. Neil also talks about the latest flow of US data and what that signals about what the Fed will do in November and previews the coming week's ECB policy meeting. Also on the show, Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah and Assistant Economist Joe Maher talk about India's economic rise and whether it will trigger a massive and broad surge in commodities prices, as China did previously. Research and events referenced in this episode:MOF promises more spending but scale still unclearAsia Drop-In: How far will policy easing go to support Asia's economies?Europe Drop-In: What will follow another ECB rate cut?Will India kickstart the next commodity boom?RBI on course for December rate cut

Is the US facing a hard landing, a soft landing or no landing? Have stimulus announcements fundamentally changed the China equities story? How should investors trade risks around the US election?Raymond James CIO Larry Adam joins Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. They talk to David Wilder about the big issues in global macro and markets in a wide-ranging chat that takes in:How quickly the Fed will unwind its restrictive policy and where it will stop cutting rates;What's holding European equities back from outperforming the US; Why escalating conflict in the Middle East hasn't had a big impact on markets so far, and what could change that.Further readingRaymond James Letter from the CIO: The Great American Road Triphttps://www.raymondjames.com/trimaranadvisors/resources/2024/10/01/the-great-american-road-tripCE Group Chief Economist Note: How Trump could erode the US economic advantage in a fractured worldhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/how-trump-could-erode-us-economic-advantage-fractured-worldCE: US Macro Scenarios dashboardhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/scenariosCE: China stimulus - Your questions answeredhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/china-stimulus-your-questions-answeredCE: Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cyclehttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/latest-thoughts-r-and-where-rates-end-cycleAbout Larry AdamLarry Adam joined Raymond James in 2018 as the chief investment officer for Private Client Group. Prior to joining Raymond James, Larry, as a managing director, held the dual roles of CIO of the Americas and global chief investment strategist for Deutsche Bank private wealth management. He sat on the U.S. investment committee, the management team responsible for investment strategy and asset allocation for U.S. discretionary client portfolios. He was also a member of Deutsche Bank's global investment committee that formalizes and establishes the global house view. Prior to being named Deutsche Bank's global chief investment strategist, Larry was the head of the asset allocation and quantitative analysis group, the group responsible for analyzing and implementing client-specific asset allocation strategies. He joined Deutsche Bank in 1992.Larry received a B.B.A. with a concentration in finance from Loyola University Maryland in 1991 and received a master's degree in business with a concentration in finance from Loyola University Maryland in 1993. He received the Chartered Financial Analyst designation in 1996, the Certified Investment Management AnalystSM certification in 2001 and the Certified Financial Planner® designation in 2004. Larry has been featured prominently on CNBC and Bloomberg and is frequently quoted in well-known publications such as the Wall Street Journal, Barron's and the International Herald Tribune.About Neil Shearing Neil Shearing is Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics. He has overall responsibility for managing our team of economists and leading our research, as well as developing the firm's products and its relationship with clients. He is also a director of the company. Neil is the first point of contact for many clients and presents regularly on the global economic and financial market outlook. He is a well-known voice within the investment community and has written articles in the Financial Times and a number of other newspapers, as well as appearing regularly on TV and radio.Prior to becoming Group Chief Economist, Neil was Chief Emerging Markets Economist, managing a team that won several awards for forecast accuracy. He also managed our New York office. Neil joined Capital Economics from HM Treasury where he worked as an Economic Adviser in various areas, including fiscal policy and global economics. He holds degrees in Economics from the University of York and the University of London and is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts. 

In the wake of Iran's missile strike on Israel on Tuesday, Deputy Chief EM Economist Jason Tuvey and David Oxley, our Chief Commodities and Climate Economist, talk about implications for the global oil market, including: What an Israeli retaliation against Iranian oil production could mean for prices;The risks around Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz;How far prices would need to rise to threaten the global inflation picture.Further readingOil spikes, but not yet a concern for central banksNasrallah and the next phase of war in the Middle East

China's leadership finally took action this week to staunch the economy's bleeding with a flurry of stimulus announcements and pledges to do more. But will it be enough? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about whether the outlook for the Chinese economy has fundamentally shifted as a result of a news-packed few days. He also talks about what the latest European inflation data suggests about how the ECB will play its October meeting and marks the second anniversary of the Liz Truss “mini budget” debacle.Also in this episode, Thomas Ryan, our US housing lead, talks to US Economist Olivia Cross about how the market is finally shifting away from sellers, differences with what's happening in Canada and what Kamala Harris' plans to improve affordability would mean for the US outlook.Analysis and events referenced in this episode:China: ​​​​​​​New fiscal package being lined upChina property construction correction has barely begunGermany will be stuck in the slow laneGlobal Drop-In: Are the US and Europe at risk of recession?Key Issue: What to expect on Budget dayUS Housing: Sellers lose grip on the market

After the long-awaited start to the Federal Reserve's easing cycle, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses next steps. He answers client questions about the risks of inflation bouncing back and explains why we expect rates to settle at levels much higher than before the pandemic.Also, on the show, Lily Millard and Shilan Shah from our emerging markets team discuss how EM central banks are likely to respond as US rates start falling.Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Report: Global imbalances will continue to fuel fracturingKey Issue: R* and the end of the ultra-low rates eraReport: China's slowdown still has a lot further to runDrop-In: Europe Economic Outlook – Germany's return to stagnationProperty Drop-In: The size and shape of Europe's commercial real estate recoveryData: EM Financial Risk IndicatorsReport: What the Fed's easing cycle means for EMs

Reports of retail's death have been exaggerated. After a long and painful adjustment, the retail's potential to deliver decent returns means our commercial real estate team now thinks it'll be the second best performer among the major sectors over our forecast horizon in both the US and UK. CRE Chief Economist Kiran Raichura and Matt Pointon, our UK CRE lead, are on this special property-themed episode of The Weekly Briefing to talk to David Wilder about our forecasts and address some of the big issues around retail's recovery, including:How this recovery will compare to the sector's performance in the early 2000s;What Macy's store closures announcement suggests about the performance of shopping malls;What a slowing US economy could mean for retail returns;How the UK's retail sector stacks up;What proposals to pedestrianise London's Oxford Street suggests about the UK outlook.Analysis referenced in this episode:US: Time to go shopping for retail assetsUK: Retail investment will continue to lead the recoveryUK Q4 Outlook: Look to beds, sheds and retail for best returns

As the much-anticipated start of Fed easing approaches, the debate has centred on whether Powell & Co. will opt for a 25 or a 50-basis point rate cut. On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses the rationale for a larger move, but also explains why we're expecting this easing cycle to begin with a 25bps move. Senior Markets Economist James Reilly is also on the show to talk about our new interactive dashboard which crunches more than six decades of Fed and market data to give investors a clear guide to how major asset prices will respond to monetary easing. Finally, Simon MacAdam, our Deputy Chief Global Economist, discusses our Economic Momentum Indicators, which give investors single, comparable data points showing whether DM economies are facing recession.  He tells Senior Global Economist Ariane Curtis what the indicators are saying about the growth risks faced by the US and Germany.Analysis and Data Dashboards referenced in this episode:Report: Rate cuts and asset returnsDashboard: Rate Cuts & Asset ReturnsReport: How to gauge recession risk in DMsDashboard: Composite Economic Momentum Indicators

That August payrolls report was one of the more keenly awaited data releases in a while – but what do its details suggest about how the Fed is likely to start monetary easing when it meets later this month?  On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talk recession risks, the Fed and ECB meetings, manufacturing's struggles and more.Analysis and events referenced in this episode:US August Employment Report ECB will keep to steady 25bp cuts US Scenarios Dashboard Capital Economics online and in-person events

August's US employment report release on Friday will be the coming week's must-watch market event. On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks about what we're expecting and how the outcome could influence the anticipated start of Fed easing this month. Neil also discusses China's confusing policy signals and, ahead of client briefings this week, highlights some of the key risks that the economist team is watching between now and year-end.Also on the show, Zichun Huang from our China team explains what Beijing needs to do to resolve the property market's giant inventory of unsold apartments – but also why resolution won't dramatically alter the Chinese economic outlook. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:US August payrolls previewGlobal Drop-In: Towards 2025 – Risks to the global economic and market outlookChina's gold rush has much further to runChina Activity Proxy: Growth picks up thanks to fiscal boostPBOC at the mercy of leadership's muddled prioritiesHow to fix China's property destocking scheme

On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Stephen Brown, our Deputy Chief North America Economist, give their take on what Jerome Powell said to the Fed's annual gathering at Jackson Hole. Neil and Stephen assess the likelihood of the Fed's easing cycle beginning with a 50 basis point cut, look ahead to the coming week's inflation and consumption data, and also take in Kamala Harris' nomination speech at the Democratic National Convention. Also on the show, Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah and Mark Williams, our Chief Asia Economist, discussed signs of improvement in China-India ties and what they mean in a global economy that's fracturing into US and China-led economic blocs.  Referenced in this episode:US Economic Weekly: 25bp or 50bp?US CRE: Time to go shopping for retail assetsWhat Sino-Indian relations tell us about global fracturingKey Issues: The fracturing of the global economyWeek-ahead Calendar & Forecasts

As markets have come roaring back from the recent growth scare, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to Jennifer McKeown, Capital Economics' Chief Global Economist, about the true state of the global economy and the outlook for policy. Their discussion takes in the latest activity data from across the US, UK, Europe and China, as well as the signals from recent inflation reports, to assess the chances of soft landings and how far central banks – with the Bank of Japan being the notable exception – will go to cut interest rates. Referenced in this episode:Central Bank Hub - Our one-stop-shop guide to global monetary policyGlobal imbalances will continue to fuel fracturing - In-depth report on the new global economic fault line

Global markets appear to have stabilised at the end of a week which began with a nasty bout of volatility. But is the selling in equities over or will fears about the US economy and an unwinding carry trade trigger more pain for investors? Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Jonas Goltermann, Capital Economics' Deputy Chief Markets Economist, talk to David Wilder about a dramatic few days in global markets and what to expect in the coming weeks and months. In this 23-minute show they address key issues, including:Whether fears about a US economic recession are justified; If the coming week's US data releases could trigger more selling;Whether volatility will settle back to pre-sell-off levels;How much an unwinding carry trade is driving volatility;Why we aren't changing our bullish US equities forecasts. Referenced in this episode:Key Issues: A volatile summer for financial marketsData: US Scenarios dashboardData: Financial Conditions IndicesCapital Daily: Taking stock of the recent market turmoilCapital Daily: Is the yen's rally – and all that went with it – over?Capital Daily: What to make of turnaround Tuesday in Tokyo

With that grim July payrolls report triggering fresh selling in US stocks and bond buying on Friday, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann join David Wilder to talk about whether there's anything to recession fears, what the Fed will do in the coming weeks and what this all means for equities. During this discussion, they touch on the key issues in the market at the moment, including:The key data to watch from here to gauge whether we're heading for a US recession;If recent data could prompt more aggressive easing from the Fed;What's left of the Big Tech-AI narrative that's done so much to drive the US market higher. Jonas will join Chief Markets Economist John Higgins for an online briefing about the US equities markets outlook on Wednesday, 7th August. Capital Economics clients can register for that briefing here.  

Chinese PMI, Australian CPI, euro-zone GDP, the new UK chancellor's statement to Parliament, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the Fed…it's a packed week of releases and central bank meetings and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks through what will be some of the more closely watched market events. In the process, he puts recent US data in context, talks about what the Fed and Bank of England are likely to do and explains why the UK's fiscal rules make little sense. Plus, our Japan team thinks there's potential for the Bank of Japan to raise rates at its meeting on Wednesday. Marcel Thieliant, our Asia-Pacific head and Tom Mathews, our Asia Markets lead, discuss the inflation dynamics that could prompt the second hike of the year and where the yen is likely headed next following its recent bounce. Analysis, data and events referenced in this podcast:Data: GDP NowcastsIt's close, but BoE to keep rates on hold for a little longerFed warming up to a September rate cutGerman debt brake to cause more self-inflicted painWe doubt this is the start of a far bigger rotation in US equitiesJapan Drop-In: Will the BOJ hike rates again before the policy window closes?ANZ Drop-In: Could Q2 inflation push the RBA to hike again?Global Drop-In: Fed, ECB, BoE – The latest decisions and the policy outlook