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Click here to send Ryan a text message!Episode #370On this week's WEEKLY BRIEFING: 17 urgent headlines every Christian needs to know. From Trump confronting South Africa's president over white farmer violence, to shocking national security risks tied to China's solar tech, to a total reversal in U.S. flu vaccine strategy—this episode unpacks what's happening and why it matters with Ryan's commentary through a biblical lens.Topics covered:Trump humiliates South Africa's president at the White HouseChina's hidden kill switches in U.S. infrastructureHHS quietly dismantles flu vaccine strategy under RFK Jr.CIA declares China an existential tech threatGaza conflict escalates with Operation Gideon's ChariotsMuch moreWatch this episode on YouTubeHowToGrowYourFaith.com >> Learn the 5 Biggest Mistakes Christians Make In Their Walk With God (and how you can avoid them!)Sharable Episode Links (scroll down or search for this episode):Ryan's Website Buzzsprout Link MORE FROM RYAN:FREE DOWNLOAD: 21 Days to a Spirit-Led Life Subscribe on YouTubeTwitter | Instagram | LinkedInSubmit a question or topic for the podcast at ryanshoward.com/contactGet Ryan's eCourse & Coaching ProgramsSupport the show

Click here to send Ryan a text message!Episode #369Introducing The Weekly Briefing—a new weekly segment that will give you the week's top headlines that matter most and the truth behind them. This new segment will keep you informed and will equip and embolden you to stand for truth. Ryan begins with a quick review of the important headlines—followed by his commentary filled with practical and biblical insights that will help you navigate the cultural chaos with a biblical and faith-first lens. In this episode:HHS reverses course on recommending the COVID vaccine for kids and pregnant womenIsrael faces rising threats—could this tie into Ezekiel 38?FDA announces AI integration across departments (yes, for drug approvals too)Big Tech and the FBI: New evidence of coordinated censorshipReal ID is now required—what it means for your freedomTrump's $2T Middle East tour and its prophetic and geopolitical implications380 million Christians persecuted worldwide—where's the outrage?Watch this episode on YouTubeHowToGrowYourFaith.com >> Learn the 5 Biggest Mistakes Christians Make In Their Walk With God (and how you can avoid them!)Sharable Episode Links (scroll down or search for this episode):Ryan's Website Buzzsprout Link MORE FROM RYAN:FREE DOWNLOAD: 21 Days to a Spirit-Led Life Subscribe on YouTubeTwitter | Instagram | LinkedInSubmit a question or topic for the podcast at ryanshoward.com/contactGet Ryan's eCourse & Coaching ProgramsSupport the show

Another rollercoaster week in Trumpland wound down with markets buoyant on reports of more White House softening in its approach to tariffs and China taking steps to ease restrictions on some US imports. But are things really looking up? And, if so, why hasn't the dollar bounced with equities?Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, are on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to assess whether there has been a fundamental improvement in the outlook, or if this is a case of investors smoking too much “hopium”. In a wide ranging chat, they discuss:What the latest economic data suggest about the impact of higher tariffs;The chances that the US and China engage enough to get a deal done;Whether King Dollar could be overthrown – and the risks of a dollar crash. Events and analysis referenced in this episodeRecording: Is the dollar's global dominance a casualty of tariff chaos?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-dollars-global-dominance-casualty-tariff-chaosANZ Drop-In: Australia's election, RBA easing and the economic outlookhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/anz-drop-australias-election-rba-easing-and-economic-outlookDrop-In: 100 Days In – The economic impact of Trump's second term so farhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-100-days-economic-impact-trumps-second-term-so-far

Neil Shearing has been in back-to-back meetings with global institutions who – like everyone – are trying to make sense of Trump's chaotic trade policy roll-out, not least the recent decision to pause "reciprocal" tariffs for 90 days. The Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics joins the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing to address some of the questions that have kept coming up in those sit-downs with clients, including:What the global trading picture might look like when the 90-day tariffs “pause” endsWhy we think US growth risks have risen but we still don't expect a recession How the Federal Reserve will play slower growth with higher inflationWhat curbs on Nvidia chips tells us about decision-making amid Trumpian uncertainty If there's a US-China trade deal to be doneAnalysis referenced in this episode:Read: Will tariffs drive a flood of Chinese exports elsewhere?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/will-tariffs-drive-flood-chinese-exports-elsewhereRead: Is China offloading its dollar assets?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-focus/china-offloading-its-dollar-assetsData: Tariff Impact Model (TIM)https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/tariff-impact-modelRead: US Outlook - Scaled-back tariffs not an existential threathttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-economic-outlook/scaled-back-tariffs-not-existential-threatRead: ECB Policy Announcement (April 2025)https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-rapid-response/ecb-policy-announcement-april-2025

There's a “whiff of stagflation” around the US economy – and that's even before Donald Trump rolls out his reciprocal tariffs plan. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing hops off a plane from New York and onto The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to give his take on the latest US consumption and price data, to preview March payrolls and to talk about what this all means for the US and global macro outlook. He's joined by Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, who explains what all of this means for US markets exceptionalism.Also on this week's episode, our China Activity Proxy is our long-running proprietary read of what's really happening with Chinese economic activity. Leah Fahy from our China team is on to discuss what the latest read of this widely followed indicator says about the trajectory for Chinese growth in 2025. Analysis referenced in this episodeThe beginning of the end of US exceptionalism?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/asset-allocation-update/beginning-end-us-exceptionalismGlobal Economic Outlook: Trade war to dampen, not derail, global growthhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economic-outlook/global-economic-outlook-trade-war-dampen-not-derail-globalData: China Activity Proxyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/china-activity-proxyCAP: Weak start to the year for China's economyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-activity-monitor/cap-weak-start-year-chinas-economy

In light of Donald Trump's decision to push the button on tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins a special episode of the Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about whether this signals the start of a global trade war. He also discusses what's coming next and whether signs of US economic weakness could prompt a shift in the White House's trade strategy.China Economics Head Julian Evans-Pritchard, Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Chief EM Economist William Jackson are also on the show to talk about the economic implications for China, Canada and Mexico, and how their governments might respond. Events referenced in this episode:Global Drop-In: Trump tariffs hit China, Mexico and Canada – Macro and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-trump-tariffs-hit-china-mexico-and-canada-macro-and-market-implicationsChina Drop-In: 2025 NPC – Setting policy goals in a trickier global environmenthttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/china-drop-2025-npc-setting-policy-goals-trickier-global-environment

It's been an extraordinary week in geopolitics, with direct US-Russia talks, a war of words between Washington and Kyiv and Europe swept by fears about the end of the US security backstop. But how much has really changed? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham are on the Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about separating the reality from the headlines. They discuss intensifying strains between the US and Europe, the constraints on any breakdown in relations, global economic fracturing and the outlook for European defence spending and how it will be funded.Also this week, in an exclusive excerpt from our recent client briefing on the issues around the Ukraine war, Senior EM Economist Liam Peach talks about what a potential peace deal could mean for the region's economies and how US-Russia relations are set to evolve. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Explore: Global economic fracturinghttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/fracturing-global-economyDrop-In: German election 2025 – The new government's domestic and global challengeshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-german-election-2025-new-governments-domestic-and-global-challengesEM Drop-in: EM financial risk update – The state of sovereign, bank and FX vulnerabilitieshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/em-drop-em-financial-risk-update-state-sovereign-bank-and-fx-vulnerabilities

Why did markets greet the latest White House tariffs announcement so warmly? Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about the influence of Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs plan on investor sentiment and discuss where the much-vaunted 'Trump trade' goes from here. The episode's main item is all about Germany. With voters in the euro-zone's biggest economy heading to the polls on 23rd February, Andrew Kenningham and Elias Hilmer from our Europe team talk about what the next government could look like. They address whether the anticipated governing coalition will have the appetite to overhaul the country's stalled growth model, and how Germany will fare in a world increasingly shaped by Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.Analysis and data referenced in this episode:Euro-zone Drop-In: German election 2025 – Macro and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/euro-zone-drop-german-election-2025-macro-and-market-implicationsGerman economy post-election: from bad to not much betterhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-focus/german-economy-post-election-bad-not-much-betterData: Euro-zone Debt Sustainability Monitorhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/euro-zone-debt-sustainability-monitorThe slow agony of Germany's auto industryhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-focus/slow-agony-germanys-auto-industry

It's been a drama-filled week in Trumpland and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to take stock of what happened, what didn't happen, and the implications for macro and markets.As well as discussing the lessons learned from Donald Trump's trade actions so far, Neil reviews the latest US labour market data and talks about why Europe and the US appear to be on such divergent economic paths.Also on the episode, China Economist Leah Fahy talks to Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah about her striking new analysis which shows how China is taking market share from low-end EM manufacturers, upending a long-standing theory about how these economies industrialise in the process. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:EMs and the suspension of US aidhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/emerging-markets-economics-update/ems-and-suspension-us-aidDrop In: Global Inflation Watch - How US and EU inflation paths are diverginghttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-global-inflation-watch-how-us-and-eu-inflation-paths-are-divergingCommodities Drop-In: Trump tariffs and global commodities marketshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/commodities-drop-trump-tariffs-and-global-commodities-markets

This week: Ellen Atiyah and Ian Welsh reflect on the outcomes from the recent European Union Deforestation Regulation webinar series, which discussed the impact of the delay will have over the coming months on value chains across the palm oil, soy, coffee and cocoa sectors. And  Lia Da Giau and Ian take about innovation in sustainable packaging. They highlight examples of material innovation and post-consumer waste management. Host: Ian Welsh For information on how to get involved at the sustainable packaging innovation forum in May in Amsterdam, click here. Click here for more information on upcoming complimentary webinars.

Donald Trump ended weeks of speculation on Saturday with the formal announcement of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China. As those countries respond, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder on this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about whether this marks the beginning of a global trade war. Neil addresses the immediate economic threats to Canada and Mexico, but also explains why these tariffs end the chance of any more rate cuts from the Fed. He also discusses what further action Trump could take against US trade partners – not least China – and the broader risks to the global trading environment. For more on the Trump policy agenda and its macro implications, see this dedicated page:https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/trumps-second-term

This week: a preview of upcoming interview with Marty Matlock from the University of Arkansas discussing how the US agricultural sector can be better than carbon neutral. Plus: Hannah Oborne and Ian Welsh talk about latest exciting innovations in the food sector, such as dairy alternatives and recyclable food packaging. And, continuing the conversation on supply chain decarbonisation, Ian is joined by Natasha Bodnar to highlight emerging themes in 2025. They discuss the importance of industry alignment and partnership for net zero success, and ongoing issues of data and reporting fatigue.   Host: Ian Welsh

Donald Trump unsurprisingly dominated the news cycle in his first week back in office. To make sense of some of what the president has pledged, threatened and suggested so far, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing was on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss what we know about tariffs, how global central banks are meant to navigate this more uncertain new environment and whether the Fed is in for a particularly contentious relationship with the White House. Plus, the new president has already made a big splash in oil markets, including an Inauguration Day pledge to “drill baby, drill” and a call for Saudi Arabia to lower prices. David Oxley, Kieran Tompkins, Olivia Cross and Hamad Hussain from our Commodities and Climate team address the issues that Trump has raised around oil and explain why downside risks to prices have just grown. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Central Bank Hubhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/central-bank-hubRead: Strong dollar is a problem for tomorrowhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/strong-dollar-problem-tomorrowEvent: Fed, ECB and BoE – Unpacking the first rate decisions of 2025https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-fed-ecb-and-boe-unpacking-first-rate-decisions-2025Read: What to make of Trump's National Energy Emergency?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/commodities-focus/what-make-trumps-national-energy-emergencyRead: How low could oil prices go if Saudi open the oil taps?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/commodities-update/how-low-could-oil-prices-go-if-saudi-open-oil-taps

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing calls in from Singapore to The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about what's known and unknown about Donald Trump's policy agenda just days before he is sworn in again. He discusses the tone set by Trump's first inaugural address, what we've learned from recent confirmation hearings and the inflation impact of a gradual rise in tariffs. Neil also talks about why our China Activity Proxy is telling a different story from official Chinese GDP data and explains why the UK has so much potential in the AI revolution.Also on the show, fresh from his team being named most accurate forecaster of major global stock indices by LSEG Data & Analytics for a second straight year, Chief Markets Economist John Higgins talks about why we expect 2025 to be another strong year for US equities. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:CAP: Weaker fiscal support behind growth slowdownhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-activity-monitor/cap-weaker-fiscal-support-behind-growth-slowdownUS continues to lead the way on our AI indexhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/us-continues-lead-way-our-ai-indexUS Drop-In: Inauguration Day special – Knowns and unknowns around Trump's second termhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/us-drop-inauguration-day-special-knowns-and-unknowns-around-trumps-second-termWhy we expect the S&P 500 to thrive in 2025https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/equities-focus/why-we-expect-sp-500-thrive-2025

A grim week for bonds was capped by a stunningly hot US jobs report. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann joined the first episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics of the year to explain what these jobs numbers signal about the health of the US economy and how the Fed could respond. They also discuss the fall-out in global bond markets, including why gilts have been under particular pressure despite the Labour government's efforts to prove its fiscal bona fides with the investors.  Analysis and events referenced in this episode:UK Weekly: Gilt market is not in crisis, but it does cause problemshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-weekly/gilt-market-not-crisis-it-does-cause-problemsChina Weekly: More weakness in store for the renminbihttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-weekly/china-weekly-more-weakness-store-renminbiCapital Economics eventshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events

This week: Innovation Forum's Ian Welsh and Natasha Bodnar share some updates about the upcoming responsible sourcing and ethical trade forum, taking place in London on 19th-20th March. They talk about the developing conference agenda and the latest confirmed speakers. For full details on how to get involved, click here. Plus: a preview of Ian's conversation with Wayne Jordash, managing partner at Global Rights Compliance. They discuss how companies face challenges in demonstrating compliance with human rights legislation, requiring comprehensive and adaptable risk assessments to meet regulatory demands. The full interview will be in the Innovation Forum podcast on 10th January.

The final Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics of the year has Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing making sense of that December Federal Reserve meeting and explaining what the latest PCE data say about the inflation outlook and where rates are heading in 2025. He also addresses why hopes for a sweeping ‘Mar-a-Lago accord' (or 'Plaza Accord 2.0') that would tackle US-China currency imbalances are likely to be disappointed. Plus, a dramatic plunge in the value of Brazil's real shows how far investors have fallen out with Lula's spendthrift administration. In an exclusive clip from our client briefing on Brazil's crisis, William Jackson, Jason Tuvey and Jonas Goltermann discuss the real's fair value, the effectiveness of FX intervention and what the government needs to do to get investors back onside. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:The Fracturing of the Global Economyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/fracturing-global-economyData: Bank of England Caseometerhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/bank-england-caseometerEM Drop-In: Brazil's currency crisis – Economic and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/em-drop-brazils-currency-crisis-economic-and-market-implicationsData: EM Financial Risk Indicatorshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/em-financial-risk-indicators

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing outlines the three big policy quandaries facing three big DM central banks. He unpacks the ECB's December decision, previews the upcoming Fed and Bank of England meetings and talks about which of these institutions faces the greatest risks in 2025.Neil also talks about whether China's policy pivot will translate into meaningful efforts to support and rebalance the economy, discusses what events in Syria say about geopolitics and the macro narrative and highlights a key risk for the coming year. Plus, following our dive into the big macro themes for 2025, Chief Markets Economist John Higgins is on the show to talk about the financial markets outlook – including why we think a bubble in US equities will keep inflating over the year. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2025 policy outlookhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-fed-ecb-and-boe-december-meetings-and-2025-policy-outlookLatest quarterly Outlookshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/outlooksWeek-ahead Forecastshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/week-ahead-forecasts

This is a special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics all about the themes that will shape the global economy in 2025. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown stepped out of our client event in London on 4th December to talk to David Wilder about the 2025 growth story. They discussed how Donald Trump's policy pledges will – and won't – affect US and global macro variables in the coming year, whether creaking public debt profiles will stir up the bond vigilantes, the limits of geopolitics as a driver of the macro story and more. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Five for 25: The macro themes that will shape next yearhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/five-25-macro-themes-will-shape-next-yearDrop-In: The World in 2025 – The global macro and market outlookhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-world-2025-global-macro-and-market-outlook

It was déjà vu all over again this week after a social media post from Donald Trump rattled markets. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss how seriously we should treat the president-elect's online threat to impose sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. He also talks about whether moves in the bond market suggest that China is turning Japanese and warns of a distorted November US payrolls report.Plus, a lot of time is spent analysing which economies are going to lose out when Trump returns to the White House, but what about the potential winners? Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah explains how Indian manufacturing could get a boost in an intensified global trade war. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Event: The World in 2025https://www.capitaleconomics.com/world-2025-event-december-2024How to think about tariffshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-tariffsGlobal Drop-In: US tariffs – How they'll work, what they'll do and how the world will respondhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-us-tariffs-how-theyll-work-what-theyll-do-and-how-world-will-respondData: China Activity Proxyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/china-activity-proxyIs a bubble in India's stock market deflating?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/equities-focus/bubble-indias-stock-market-deflating

This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics is an exclusive extract from our online Drop-In briefing following Donald Trump's threat to impose massive tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. Was this a negotiating ploy from the president-elect? Who'll pay the cost of higher tariffs? How would targeted countries respond? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing, Vicky Redwood, our Senior Economic Adviser, and Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham answered these questions and more in our day-after briefing.Analysis and events referenced in this episode: How to think about tariffshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-tariffsCanada, China and Mexico in Trump's firing line​https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/canada-china-and-mexico-trumps-firing-lineDrop-In: US tariffs – How they'll work, what they'll do and how the world will respond https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-us-tariffs-how-theyll-work-what-theyll-do-and-how-world-will-respond

Discussion on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics attempts to avoid any mention of Donald Trump – and fails almost immediately. But Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing's point is that there is a lot going on in the world besides regime change in Washington. He talks to David Wilder about why inflation is worrying markets, why Chinese stimulus hopes were dashed, and what Nvidia's earnings say about AI's potential. Plus, despite escalation in the war in Ukraine, speculation is also building about an end to fighting when Donald Trump takes office next year. Senior EM Economist Liam Peach talks about what this could look like and its potential implications for the Ukrainian, Russian and broader European economies. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:London Event: The World in 2025https://www.capitaleconomics.com/world-2025-event-december-2024Is Nvidia a sign that the AI boost for US equities is over?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/capital-daily/nvidia-sign-ai-boost-us-equities-overTrump and the war in Ukrainehttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/emerging-europe-economics-update/trump-and-war-ukraineDrop-In: Trump, OPEC, China – What's driving oil prices in 2025?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-trump-opec-china-whats-driving-oil-prices-2025

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing hops off the plane from New York and hops onto the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to explain what Donald Trump's cabinet nominations signal about the macro policy outlook, how Europe and China could respond to tariffs and the economic implications of removing millions of migrant workers from the US economy.Plus, as the initial, post-election euphoria in US financial markets wears off, Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann discusses what lies ahead for equities, bonds and currencies. 

Ahead of the year's big political event, The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics includes an exclusive clip from our client briefing all about what to expect from the US election. Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams and the team tackle everything from Kamala Harris' fiscal plans to how the euro could react to which candidate the Chinese Communist Party would prefer to deal with. (Watch the full briefing here.)Plus, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory unpacks the market response to the UK Budget and explains how Rachel Reeves' fiscal plans could shape the UK's monetary policy outlook.Analysis and events referenced in this episodeRegister Now: Drop-In: US election aftermath – Trump vs Harris and the state of unionhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-us-election-aftermath-trump-vs-harris-and-state-unionKey Issues: US election 2024https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/us-election-2024Will the BoE start to cut interest rates quicker?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/boe-watch/will-boe-start-cut-interest-rates-quickerHow worrying is the surge in Gilt yields?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/bonds-equities/how-worrying-surge-gilt-yields

Perhaps the most frequently asked question of the Capital Economics is around fiscal risks and their implications for financial markets. There were more incoming this past week as Donald Trump looked to be doing better in the polls and more details about the UK Budget trickled out, all against a backdrop of rising bond yields. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses what's behind the rise in yields and how bond investors perceive government commitments to getting a grip on public debt in the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. There's more on the UK Budget too, with a preview of what to expect from Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Wednesday statement from Chief UK Economist Paul Dales and Deputy Chief Economist Ruth Gregory.Plus, Canada's population could shrink for the first time in over 150 years if Ottawa's stringent new immigration targets are met. That has huge implications for the country's economic outlook and for Bank of Canada policy, as Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown explains. Analysis referenced in this podcast:Payrolls preview: Temporary disruptions to stymie recent strengthhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-employment-report-preview/temporary-disruptions-stymie-recent-strengthWill Treasury bulls be able to face down the bond vigilantes?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/bonds-focus/will-treasury-bulls-be-able-face-down-bond-vigilantesKey Issue: What to expect on UK 2024 Budget dayhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/uk-2024-october-budgetCanada's population decline will drag down GDP growthhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/canada-economics-update/population-decline-will-drag-down-gdp-growth

Donald Trump says ‘tariff' is “the most beautiful word in the dictionary”. That's up for debate – but what's less arguable is that raising taxes on imports as much as the Republican presidential candidate is threatening would be bad trade policy, according to Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing. He's on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss why tariffs would hurt the US economy and the economies of its key trading partners, all while failing to achieve Trump's objectives. Also on the show, Hamad Hussein from our Climate and Commodities team explains why reports of cooling electric vehicles sales in the US and Europe paint an incomplete demand picture, and what that all means for oil appetite.Plus, an exclusive extract from our post-ECB client briefing on the Governing Council's next steps – including whether its last move of the year could be a super-sized rate cut. Analysis and events referenced in this podcast:Read: How Trump could erode the US economic advantage in a fractured worldKey Issue: US Election 2024Read: Why we expect the S&P 500 to soar in 2024Watch: What will follow another ECB rate cut?Read: Taking stock of the two-speed electric vehicle rolloutData: Long-term Energy Scenario Generator

It's a rare thing for a press conference from China's Minister of Finance to excite quite so much, but there were widespread hopes in markets that Saturday's briefing from Lan Fo'an would finally provide the details of fiscal easing plans that had been missing from the government's stimulus pledges so far. Did Minister Lan deliver? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his assessment on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics and discusses what the leadership needs to deliver to boost confidence in its steering of the economy. Neil also talks about the latest flow of US data and what that signals about what the Fed will do in November and previews the coming week's ECB policy meeting. Also on the show, Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah and Assistant Economist Joe Maher talk about India's economic rise and whether it will trigger a massive and broad surge in commodities prices, as China did previously. Research and events referenced in this episode:MOF promises more spending but scale still unclearAsia Drop-In: How far will policy easing go to support Asia's economies?Europe Drop-In: What will follow another ECB rate cut?Will India kickstart the next commodity boom?RBI on course for December rate cut

This week: Innovation Forum's Ellen Atiyah speaks with Andika Putraditama, director of the Rimba Collective at Lestari Capital, about how nature-based solutions can help deliver corporate sustainability commitments, ahead of a webinar on 17th October. They discuss the partnerships, challenges and opportunities driving nature-based solution models, and how corporates are linking commodity sourcing to ecosystem services and advancing sustainability efforts.   Plus: ahead of the Sustainable Packaging Innovation Forum USA in Philadelphia on 29th and 30th October, another chance to hear Ian Welsh talking about prospects for a Global Plastics Pact with Llorenç Milà i Canals, head of secretariat of the Life Cycle Initiative at the UN Environment Programme at the 2023 conference in Amsterdam.

Is the US facing a hard landing, a soft landing or no landing? Have stimulus announcements fundamentally changed the China equities story? How should investors trade risks around the US election?Raymond James CIO Larry Adam joins Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. They talk to David Wilder about the big issues in global macro and markets in a wide-ranging chat that takes in:How quickly the Fed will unwind its restrictive policy and where it will stop cutting rates;What's holding European equities back from outperforming the US; Why escalating conflict in the Middle East hasn't had a big impact on markets so far, and what could change that.Further readingRaymond James Letter from the CIO: The Great American Road Triphttps://www.raymondjames.com/trimaranadvisors/resources/2024/10/01/the-great-american-road-tripCE Group Chief Economist Note: How Trump could erode the US economic advantage in a fractured worldhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/how-trump-could-erode-us-economic-advantage-fractured-worldCE: US Macro Scenarios dashboardhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/scenariosCE: China stimulus - Your questions answeredhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/china-stimulus-your-questions-answeredCE: Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cyclehttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/latest-thoughts-r-and-where-rates-end-cycleAbout Larry AdamLarry Adam joined Raymond James in 2018 as the chief investment officer for Private Client Group. Prior to joining Raymond James, Larry, as a managing director, held the dual roles of CIO of the Americas and global chief investment strategist for Deutsche Bank private wealth management. He sat on the U.S. investment committee, the management team responsible for investment strategy and asset allocation for U.S. discretionary client portfolios. He was also a member of Deutsche Bank's global investment committee that formalizes and establishes the global house view. Prior to being named Deutsche Bank's global chief investment strategist, Larry was the head of the asset allocation and quantitative analysis group, the group responsible for analyzing and implementing client-specific asset allocation strategies. He joined Deutsche Bank in 1992.Larry received a B.B.A. with a concentration in finance from Loyola University Maryland in 1991 and received a master's degree in business with a concentration in finance from Loyola University Maryland in 1993. He received the Chartered Financial Analyst designation in 1996, the Certified Investment Management AnalystSM certification in 2001 and the Certified Financial Planner® designation in 2004. Larry has been featured prominently on CNBC and Bloomberg and is frequently quoted in well-known publications such as the Wall Street Journal, Barron's and the International Herald Tribune.About Neil Shearing Neil Shearing is Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics. He has overall responsibility for managing our team of economists and leading our research, as well as developing the firm's products and its relationship with clients. He is also a director of the company. Neil is the first point of contact for many clients and presents regularly on the global economic and financial market outlook. He is a well-known voice within the investment community and has written articles in the Financial Times and a number of other newspapers, as well as appearing regularly on TV and radio.Prior to becoming Group Chief Economist, Neil was Chief Emerging Markets Economist, managing a team that won several awards for forecast accuracy. He also managed our New York office. Neil joined Capital Economics from HM Treasury where he worked as an Economic Adviser in various areas, including fiscal policy and global economics. He holds degrees in Economics from the University of York and the University of London and is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts. 

Reports of retail's death have been exaggerated. After a long and painful adjustment, the retail's potential to deliver decent returns means our commercial real estate team now thinks it'll be the second best performer among the major sectors over our forecast horizon in both the US and UK. CRE Chief Economist Kiran Raichura and Matt Pointon, our UK CRE lead, are on this special property-themed episode of The Weekly Briefing to talk to David Wilder about our forecasts and address some of the big issues around retail's recovery, including:How this recovery will compare to the sector's performance in the early 2000s;What Macy's store closures announcement suggests about the performance of shopping malls;What a slowing US economy could mean for retail returns;How the UK's retail sector stacks up;What proposals to pedestrianise London's Oxford Street suggests about the UK outlook.Analysis referenced in this episode:US: Time to go shopping for retail assetsUK: Retail investment will continue to lead the recoveryUK Q4 Outlook: Look to beds, sheds and retail for best returns

As the much-anticipated start of Fed easing approaches, the debate has centred on whether Powell & Co. will opt for a 25 or a 50-basis point rate cut. On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses the rationale for a larger move, but also explains why we're expecting this easing cycle to begin with a 25bps move. Senior Markets Economist James Reilly is also on the show to talk about our new interactive dashboard which crunches more than six decades of Fed and market data to give investors a clear guide to how major asset prices will respond to monetary easing. Finally, Simon MacAdam, our Deputy Chief Global Economist, discusses our Economic Momentum Indicators, which give investors single, comparable data points showing whether DM economies are facing recession.  He tells Senior Global Economist Ariane Curtis what the indicators are saying about the growth risks faced by the US and Germany.Analysis and Data Dashboards referenced in this episode:Report: Rate cuts and asset returnsDashboard: Rate Cuts & Asset ReturnsReport: How to gauge recession risk in DMsDashboard: Composite Economic Momentum Indicators

The All Local Afternoon Update for Tuesday, September 10th 2024 

INTEL Roundtable w/ Johnson & McGovern - Weekly Briefing Wrap UpSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

That August payrolls report was one of the more keenly awaited data releases in a while – but what do its details suggest about how the Fed is likely to start monetary easing when it meets later this month?  On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talk recession risks, the Fed and ECB meetings, manufacturing's struggles and more.Analysis and events referenced in this episode:US August Employment Report ECB will keep to steady 25bp cuts US Scenarios Dashboard Capital Economics online and in-person events

August's US employment report release on Friday will be the coming week's must-watch market event. On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks about what we're expecting and how the outcome could influence the anticipated start of Fed easing this month. Neil also discusses China's confusing policy signals and, ahead of client briefings this week, highlights some of the key risks that the economist team is watching between now and year-end.Also on the show, Zichun Huang from our China team explains what Beijing needs to do to resolve the property market's giant inventory of unsold apartments – but also why resolution won't dramatically alter the Chinese economic outlook. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:US August payrolls previewGlobal Drop-In: Towards 2025 – Risks to the global economic and market outlookChina's gold rush has much further to runChina Activity Proxy: Growth picks up thanks to fiscal boostPBOC at the mercy of leadership's muddled prioritiesHow to fix China's property destocking scheme

On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Stephen Brown, our Deputy Chief North America Economist, give their take on what Jerome Powell said to the Fed's annual gathering at Jackson Hole. Neil and Stephen assess the likelihood of the Fed's easing cycle beginning with a 50 basis point cut, look ahead to the coming week's inflation and consumption data, and also take in Kamala Harris' nomination speech at the Democratic National Convention. Also on the show, Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah and Mark Williams, our Chief Asia Economist, discussed signs of improvement in China-India ties and what they mean in a global economy that's fracturing into US and China-led economic blocs.  Referenced in this episode:US Economic Weekly: 25bp or 50bp?US CRE: Time to go shopping for retail assetsWhat Sino-Indian relations tell us about global fracturingKey Issues: The fracturing of the global economyWeek-ahead Calendar & Forecasts

Which commercial real estate markets are set to recover first, and where will recovery be strongest? The Capital Economics real estate team has been looking closely at the comparative performance of the US, European and UK markets to advise clients on where to find opportunities – and where painful adjustments to the post-pandemic world are likely to linger. In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, CRE team lead Kiran Raichura and Amy Wood, who focuses on the European market, talk to David Wilder about their work, highlighting potential recoveries and ongoing pain in commercial real estate. They touch on the key issues for investors, including:Which regional markets and which sectors are likely to outperform and which will lag; Why a lot more distressed assets are coming, and where they'll come from; Whether political uncertainty on both sides of the Atlantic is weighing on activity. Analysis referenced in this episode:Global Commercial Property ChartpackCMBS losses not a sign of widespread debt crisisDistress rising, but still a long way to goHow big a threat is debt distress in Europe?

This week: Aarohi Sharma, deputy director for regenerative agriculture at Natural Resources Defense Council, spoke with Innovation Forum's Ian Welsh on the need for policy reforms to address the root causes of agriculture's impact on climate change. Talking at the recent Innovation Forum in Minneapolis, they highlighted the COVER Act, which incentivises farmers to plant cover crops by reducing insurance premiums, and California's efforts to incorporate resilience and a holistic approach into its food system. Plus, hear the latest updates on upcoming events: Sustainable Commodities and Land Use in Amsterdam (23-24 October), Sustainable Packaging in Philadelphia (29-30 October), and Scope 3 Innovation in Washington DC (3-4 December).

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown speaks about the macroeconomic implications of the global IT outage before going on to explain what's happening to the world inflation and monetary policy picture. Jenny talks about the challenges posed by sticky services inflation, discusses why central banks can't afford to wait to cut rates and looks ahead to outline where prices and rates are going over the medium-term.Julian Evans-Pritchard, our China Economics head, is also on to talk about the outcome of the Chinese Communist Party's Third Plenum, explaining why the official communications so far suggest that the economy's fundamental problems aren't going away any time soon. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:The economic threat from cyberwarfareWhat explains the stickiness of services inflation?Global rate-cutting cycle is not “one size fits all”Third Plenum fails to resolve policy tensionsCE AdvanceR-Star Dashboard

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth reflects on a couple of crucial inflation reports, explaining how they've shifted the disinflation narrative and could even lead to even more aggressive policy easing from the Federal Reserve this year. Paul also discusses with David Wilder how his team is trying to cut through the noise around the US election to forge a coherent view of the US economic outlook in 2025 and beyond. Andrew Kenningham, our Chief Europe Economist, is also on the show to preview the coming week's ECB meeting but also to talk through Europe's own election uncertainty as the French political establishment continues to reel from the fall-out from last month's legislative election against a backdrop of a worsening fiscal picture. 

This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics presents our Drop-In briefing to clients the morning after the UK general election. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing spoke to Paul Dales, Ruth Gregory and Ashley Webb from our UK Economics team about the results. During this 25-minute briefing, they highlight key implications for the UK economic outlook as they address client questions, including:How much the new Labour government could increase spending;What the new government could do to boost the UK's dire productivity growth rates;Whether Labour could drive a surge in housing construction – and what that could mean for the economy.We hold several Drop-Ins each week on key issues around macro and markets. These short, online briefings are designed to get clients the analysis and answers they need as quickly as possible. See our upcoming Drop-Ins and watch recordings of previous events here. 

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing previews upcoming US inflation data, outlines the fiscal challenges facing the next UK Chancellor and explains how Chinese manufacturing overcapacity isn't just a problem for advanced economies.Plus, Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann discusses the growing bubble in US stocks – and why we think it can continue to inflate for now.And Shilan Shah, our India Economics lead, is on the show to talk about how the Indian economy is likely to fare in Narendra Modi's third term, and why – despite widespread optimism – investors need to be clear-eyed about the country's long-term challenges. 

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks about what's happening in France and what that means for the bond market. He also assesses the Fed's June meeting and previews what the Bank of England could decide on Thursday – as well as the discussing how the onset of elections could influence these institutions. (00:00-13:30)Plus, following the European Union's announcement of plans to slap tariffs on Chinese EV imports, Andrew Kenningham and Mark Williams talk through the Union's strategy, comparing how it stacks up against similar US measures announced just a few weeks ago. (15:54-25:22)Finally, as OPEC lashes out at IEA oil demand forecasts, Olivia Cross talks to Elias Hilmer about our own long-term forecasts for when fossil fuel demand will peak. (26:46-31:02)

KFC's chief sustainability officer Nira Johri and global chief development officer Nivera Wallani speak with Ian Welsh about the company's climate commitments across scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions. Hear how the brand's sustainability strategy is closely integrated with its overall development plans.   Also, Innovation Forum's Natasha Bodnar discusses with Ian what to expect at the upcoming scope 3 emissions innovation forum in Amsterdam on 12th and 13th June. Click here for full registration details.    Hear from Innovation Forum's Sarah Jackson about the sustainable packaging innovation forum taking place in Philadelphia on October 29th and 30th, which will focus on the opportunities and benefits from sustainable packaging solutions. Full registration details can be found here.   Plus, Innovation Forum's Savanna Razzaque chats with Vayda's CEO Mike Shoemaker about the company's direct work with growers to drive regenerative transformation and preview of their upcoming farmer-led discussion on 11th June. Sign up here.    Finally, hear about the upcoming Innovation Forum webinar hosted in partnership with ofi. Chief sustainability officer Roel van Poppel discusses with Savanna the launch of the company's Choices for Change sustainability strategy.

Will the US continue to dominate the global economy in the coming years? Will China or Europe ever catch up? Is the US where investors will continue to see stronger stock market returns? The question of US outperformance runs to the heart of the global economic outlook and is the subject of our Spotlight project for 2024. Spotlight is our annual step back from the ebb and flow of macro to dive into those tectonic issues that will shape the global economy and markets and Global Chief Economist Jennifer McKeown and Hubert de Barochez, a senior economist on our Markets team, are on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss some of the key takeaways from this work.In their discussion with David Wilder, they talk about the drivers of outperformance, the potential challenges to US dominance, and what happens to relative returns when the US stock market bubble bursts. The Spotlight project launches on Monday, 10th June and details of the project and in-person and on-line events can be found here. 

This week: At the recent future of food and beverage forum in Amsterdam, Ian Welsh spoke with Unilever's global food sustainability director Dorothy Shaver about how the company prioritises sustainability within its business strategy. They discussed some causes for optimism to deliver resilient food systems.   And Innovation Forum's Emily Heslop talks about what to expect at the future of food and beverage USA forum in Minneapolis this week. Click here to view the agenda.

Innovation Forum's Ian Welsh and Niamh McCarthy from Climate Advisers introduce an upcoming virtual event where findings from new soy and cattle reports from the Orbitas initiative will be discussed. The event will incorporate perspectives from stakeholders across Brazil's soy and cattle sector. Click here to register to join live on Tuesday 30th April at 3pm CEST. Live Portuguese translation will be available.   Plus: Innovation Forum's Catie Ball talks about what to expect at the sustainable apparel and textiles USA conference in New York in June, ahead of its EU counterpart taking place next week. For full registration details for the sustainable apparel and textiles conference in New York, click here. Register by Friday 19th April and save $300.   Host: Ian Welsh

This week: Ian Welsh and Diana Kim reveal details of the complimentary Innovation Forum webinars  coming up in the next few weeks. They discuss what to expect at the Brazilian agribusiness case study webinar, held in partnership with Orbitas on the 30th April. They also talk about the importance of sustainable crop nutrition ahead of a webinar on the role of fertilisers in regenerative agriculture in partnership with Yara.   Ian Welsh also shares some agenda and speaker highlights that will be coming up at the scope 3 innovation forum in Amsterdam on 12th-13th June. The discussions will include how to enable business to tackle supply chain greenhouse gas emissions, deliver on climate targets and establish the path to net zero. Register by this Friday for a €300 discount on conference passes.

This week, Innovation Forum's Ian Welsh talks about what to expect at this week's responsible sourcing and ethical trade forum in London. He introduces this year's focus on the practical implications of evolving legislation, and highlights key speakers who will be joining over the two days.   Plus: Innovation Forum's Hanna Halmari shares further updates on the upcoming sustainable apparel and textiles conference taking place in Amsterdam on 23rd-24th April. Click here for more information and registration details.

Innovation Forum's Ian Welsh talks about free-to-join webinars coming up, including a discussion on soil health and carbon farming on Tuesday 5th March at 2pm CET, supported by Bayer Crop Science. Join the conversation alongside representatives from RAGT Seeds, the French ministry of agriculture, a farmer and Bayer Crop Science.   And then on Tuesday 12th March, Innovation Forum will host in partnership with Nestlé a webinar to present an update on the company's  progress on its climate pledges in 2023. Hear from experts across Nestlé, with case studies illustrating their progress at 3pm CET. If you would like to join, you can register here.   Plus: Innovation Forum's Hannah Oborne shares updates and highlights some key discussions to take place at the future of food and beverage conference in Amsterdam on 14th-15th May. Click here to join us and to discuss how to deliver a sustainable, resilient and regenerative food systems.