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This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics features an exclusive extract from our client briefing on the global bond sell-off, its causes, consequences and where markets go from here. In this edited extract, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann answer questions from clients around the world, including:What was Scott Bessent's Treasury market intervention intended to achieve, and why it has so far fallen short?What are the economic forces pushing investors to demand more compensation for holding long-dated government bonds?Which economies are most exposed to a fiscal crisis?Is the AI credit boom affecting demand for government debt?How high could bond yields rise from here?Related contentRead: How to think about the bond market sell-offhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-bond-market-sellRead: What taxes could Burnham raise to fund his policy ambitions?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-update/what-taxes-could-burnham-raise-fund-his-policy-ambitions

In this week's episode of The Expeditors Podcast, titled "Current Position | Weekly Briefing August 12th - 18th," I delve into the latest developments affecting global trade and supply chains. From the U.S. government's push for AI-driven customs enforcement to the UK's transition of customs checks at Dover, I cover significant regulatory changes. I also explore the rising container rates amidst ongoing disruptions, including low water levels impacting the Rhine River, which are causing congestion and increased costs in Europe. Join me as I provide insights from our Senior Vice President of Global Ocean, Adam Cord, on navigating these challenges and planning for future logistics strategies. Tune in to stay informed and ahead in the dynamic world of global supply chain management.

Market HighlightsUS refunds $100 billion in tariffs struck down by Supreme Court, filing shows | AJOT.COMBrazil Announces Efforts for Economic Agreements with China and South KoreaGemini Cooperation expands return to Suez Canal | trans.infoAsia-US East Coast box rate hits new high of $9,400 - FreightWavesEuropean air cargo demand continues to fall following EU's stricter import rules - Air Cargo NewsWorldACD Weekly Air Cargo Trends 2026 - week 31 - WorldACDMexico plans major expansion of busiest cross-border truck crossing - FreightWavesArticles of InterestSingapore says exports worth $7.4 billion affected by new U.S. tariffs | AJOT.COMDiesel theft wave hits Italian hauliers | trans.infoWhite House Announces Section 232 Tariffs on Polysilicon and Derivative ProductsBritish hauliers move more freight with fewer empty runs | trans.infoAfter sidelining 26,000 truck drivers, FMCSA seeks to lock in English rules - FreightWavesCanadian province removes 20 unsafe trucking companies from roadways - FreightWavesTrump extends Jones Act waiver; direct effect “pennies per gallon,” say analysts - FreightWavesUpcoming EventsAug. 19 – Incoterms Basics 2020Aug. 25 – U.S. Customs & Trade Update for Japanese CompaniesAug. 26 – Breaking Down the Customs Enforcement Executive OrderSept. 2 – Breaking Down the U.S. Customs Enforcement Executive Order (Europe)

Market HighlightsEU packaging rules are changing: what importers need in place by August 2026 | trans.infoCBP Deploys Entry Type 13 Test and ResourcesCarrier Discounts Push Container Spot Rates Lower Ahead of August GRIsOcean Market MonitorWorldACD Weekly Air Cargo Trends 2026 - week 30 - WorldACDTrucking coalition says 194,000 non-domiciled CDLs affected by carrier reforms - FreightWavesFrance relaxes driving-time rules for wildfire transport | trans.infoArticles of InterestU.S. and Jordan Sign Agreement on Reciprocal TradePort Authority of New York and New Jersey reports facility volumes for first half of 2026Strong finish: Ocean Network Express lifts full-year profit outlook to ~$900MAs diesel futures plummet, DOE/EIA benchmark rises a 4th straight week to $5.348/galContainer spot rates fall as capacity growth pressures freight ratesChapman Freeborn launches in-house ICS2 declaration service for EU-bound cargoChinese state traders make large U.S. soybean purchases; USDA confirms ~488k tonsEventsAug. 13 – U.S. Customs Market UpdateAug. 19 – Incoterms Basics 2020Aug. 25 – U.S. Customs & Trade Update for Japanese CompaniesAug. 26 – Breaking Down the Customs Enforcement Executive Order

Kevin Warsh sent financial markets into turmoil with a press conference that muddied, rather than clarified, the Fed's message. But was the confusion all part of a broader strategy from a Federal Reserve chair who takes a dim view of forward guidance? On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss why he doesn't think the new chair deserves the benefit of the doubt, and why clearer communication will be essential if the Fed is to preserve its inflation-fighting credibility.Also on the show, Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham explains why, despite the horrific scenes unfolding across southern Europe, this summer's wildfires are likely to have only a limited economic impact.Related contentThe renminbi could not rebalance China on its ownhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/renminbi-could-not-rebalance-china-its-ownLittle macroeconomic impact of horrific wildfireshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-update/little-macroeconomic-impact-horrific-wildfires

In this episode of The Expeditors Podcast, I delve into the key developments from our weekly briefing for July 22nd to 28th. We explore the recent implementation of Section 301 forced labor tariffs, affecting imports from 60 economies, and the implications of new regulatory frameworks. I also examine the surge in Far East to U.S. ocean freight rates amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and the gradual easing of congestion in global supply chains. Additionally, I discuss how air freight rates are responding to shifting demand and the evolving landscape of ground transportation, including recent legal rulings impacting brokers. Tune in for a comprehensive overview of the current state of global trade and logistics, featuring insights from our Senior Vice President of Global Ocean, Adam Kord.

Market Highlights EU Commission Issues New Tariff MeasuresContainer ship attacked in Strait of Hormuz as Iran widens war - FreightWavesTrump Reinstates Iran Blockade, Declares U.S. 'Guardian of Hormuz,' And Calls for 20% Cargo FeeIran conflict drives up Asia-US container rate by 276% - FreightWavesHong Kong-Europe air cargo volumes plummet - Air Cargo NewsRussia, Strait of Hormuz combining to drive diesel higher after declines - FreightWavesArticles of Interest:Ships turn back as Iran restricts Strait of Hormuz traffic | trans.info2M+ import containers to set new record, say retailers - FreightWavesOFAC Revokes Iran General License Canada trade gets lifeline as Gordie Howe bridge set to open - FreightWavesFreighter trial flights take place at soon-to-open Western Sydney - Air Cargo NewsIndiana State Police recover 12 stolen truckloads worth more than $11 million - FreightWavesSavannah opens last piece in project to ease port truck traffic - FreightWavesSection 232 Aerospace Investigation Results in No TariffsDP World plans UAE port, container terminal to bypass Strait of Hormuz: Report - FreightWaves Belgium plans €100 road vignette for vans from May 2027 | trans.infoChicago Rockford International Airport marks groundbreaking of 334,800-square-foot Hillwood logistics development | AJOT.COMEvents:July 21 - Incoterms 101 July 29 - 2026 Mid-Year Outlook -presented by Onyx(Americas) July 30 - 2026 Mid-Year Outlook-presented by Onyx (Europe)July 30 -2026 Mid-Year Outlook-presented by Onyx (Asia)

It's far too soon to be worrying about another spike in inflation from renewed fighting in the Middle East. That's one of the key messages from Capital Economics' Global Chief Economist Jennifer McKeown, who joins David Wilder on The Weekly Briefing with Neil Shearing away this week.Jenny explains what could drive the Fed to raise interest rates as early as September, whether economies on both sides of the Atlantic can continue to hold up and where we think the consensus is wrong on the outlook for interest rates.Also on the show, in an exclusive excerpt from a recent online client briefing on AI, Chief Economic Adviser Vicky Redwood explains where the technology's impact is already showing up in the data, and what happens to the global economy if AI's promised productivity gains never materialise.Related contentCapital Economics Key Issues: AIDrop-In: AI's global shockwaves – Macro and market implications

For the past three years, our Markets team has been more optimistic than most about the AI-driven rally in global equities. That view has been borne out by events. Now they believe the rally has entered its final phase and that a sharp downturn will follow.  On this week's The Weekly Briefing, Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann explains why we think the correction is coming in 2027, what to expect before the plunge and whether the Fed will play a role in the rally's demise. Also on the show, Climate and Commodities Economist Hamad Hussain discusses why our long-standing forecast that gold prices would retreat from their record highs is playing out, and why prices have further to fall from here.Related content:Drop-In: AI's global shockwaves – Macro and market implicationsAsset Allocation Outlook: The AI equity boom reaching its final inningshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/asset-allocation-outlook/ai-equity-boom-reaching-its-final-inningsCommodities Outlook: Beyond Hormuz – the path back to an oil gluthttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/commodities-outlook/beyond-hormuz-path-back-oil-glut

Our flagship Global Economic Outlook is just around the corner, and in this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing previews our view of a world in which some economies are benefiting from the AI investment boom while others are falling behind. He also discusses what to expect from next week's US employment report and why markets are underestimating just how hawkish the Fed may need to remain to bring inflation back to target.Also on the show, with Andy Burnham's 'coronation' as the UK's next prime minister looking increasingly likely, what do we know about the new government's plans? Paul Dales and Ruth Gregory from our UK team discuss the fiscal constraints that will limit a Burnham government's spending ambitions, while explaining why falling inflation could allow the Bank of England to deliver much more monetary easing than markets currently expect.Related contentUK Economic Outlook: Fall in inflation to 2.0% in 2027 to trigger rate cutshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economic-outlook/fall-inflation-20-2027-trigger-rate-cutsCapital Economics Eventshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events

Relatively strong US growth, sticky inflation and a resilient labour market have strengthened the case for further Fed tightening. In this week's episode of The Weekly Briefing, Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown tells David Wilder why rates may rise again before year-end and what to expect from Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair.Before that, it's Groundhog Friday, as Donald Trump again talks up an imminent deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But what if this time it really is for real and a US-Iran deal does get done? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses how the outlook could shift if energy starts flowing again, but also explains the economic risks if any deal later falls apart as crude reserves run down.Related contentFed on hold as Warsh faces a fractious FOMCBoE may not follow the central bank crowd in raising ratesBoJ on track to hike despite Ueda's absence

Are we moving towards Fed rate hikes? Even before the release of a strong May US employment report, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joined The Weekly Briefing to explain why shifting dynamics on the FOMC mean the Federal Reserve could emerge from the summer weighing the need for tighter policy to contain inflation.Plus, after another extraordinary surge in AI stocks, Chief Economic Adviser for Financial Markets John Higgins discusses how much further the rally could run, whether current earnings growth is sustainable and what could ultimately burst the stock market bubble.Related contentBar to Fed hikes appears relatively lowCapital Economics events

This could prove another false dawn, or the US and Iran could finally reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to oil and gas shipments. But even if the strait reopens, energy flows, oil prices and, by extension, inflation won't snap back quickly to pre-war levels.Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Climate & Commodities Economist David Oxley join the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing to discuss the new normal for global energy markets and what it means for the world economy.They explain why inflation pressures are still likely to build in the weeks ahead, even as market expectations for central bank responses have tempered in recent days. And they discuss how governments and the energy industry are now scrambling to build alternative supply routes and reduce the Strait of Hormuz's potency as a geopolitical choke point.

This latest wobble in the bond market almost certainly won't be the last. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann join David Wilder on the latest episode of the Weekly Briefing to discuss the forces that have driven bond yields to multi-year highs. They examine shifting perceptions around inflation as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz drags on, the fiscal worries gnawing away at investor sentiment across the advanced economies and we're entering a world where inflation settles structurally higher than the 2% era policymakers once took for granted. And with Japan's yield curve steepening sharply, they also discuss whether investors are beginning to question the Bank of Japan's grip on reflation. Also on the show, India economist Shilan Shah calls in from Mumbai to discuss how record temperatures and the global energy shock are complicating the Reserve Bank's efforts to contain inflation pressures. He discusses the risks7 facing the rupee, the prospect of tighter monetary policy, and how the current dilemma compares with crises past. Related contentWatch: Markets Drop-In: AI-driven paradigm shift or dotcom bubble redux? What's next for equitieshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/markets-drop-ai-driven-paradigm-shift-or-dotcom-bubble-redux-whats-next-equitiesRead: Heatwave completes trifecta of risks for Indiahttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/india-economics-update/heatwave-completes-trifecta-risks-indiaExplore: Fiscal Riskshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/fiscal-risks

The Iran conflict is approaching its third month, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and oil is back above $100 per barrel. How safe is the assumption that this will all be resolved soon, and what happens to commodity prices, growth and inflation if it isn't?In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown and Chief Climate & Commodities Economist David Oxley join David Wilder to unpack the macro and market assumptions behind our ‘adverse' conflict scenario. They discuss how far commodity prices could rise and whether that risks tipping the global economy into recession – but also why some of the latest data suggest the initial macro hit from the energy shock may not have been as severe as first feared.Also on the show, the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting could mark Jerome Powell's final one as Chair. With Kevin Warsh waiting in the wings, Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown considers Powell's legacy, but also the policy implications of a change in Fed leadership. That includes why Warsh could push for a different inflation gauge to target, but also why tensions with the White House may not go away. Related contentRead: Powell's departure upstaged as Warsh readies Fed revamphttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-fed-watch/powells-departure-upstaged-warsh-readies-fed-revampDrop-In: The Fed, ECB and Bank of England – Signals from the April meetingshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-fed-ecb-and-bank-england-signals-april-meetingsIran conflict: Global macro and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/iran-conflict

Click here to send Ryan a text message!Ep. #393Ryan highlights consequential news from the previous week and shares his take on the most critical stories.00:00 - Intro00:30 - Headlines05:18 - Commentary startsTop Stories:Nigeria: 54+ Christians Killed During Holy Week — 1,402 in 96 DaysSupreme Court 8-1: Conversion Therapy Bans Are UnconstitutionalCanada Removes Religious Exemptions from Hate Speech LawIran-U.S. Two-Week Ceasefire — Talks Active NOW in IslamabadTimes Square Easter — Thousands Worship, 600+ SalvationsBrief market updatesWatch this episode on YouTubeHowToGrowYourFaith.com >> Learn the 5 Biggest Mistakes Christians Make In Their Walk With God (and how you can avoid them!)Sharable Episode Links (scroll down or search for this episode):Ryan's Website Buzzsprout Link MORE FROM RYAN:FREE DOWNLOAD: 21 Days to a Spirit-Led Life Subscribe on YouTubeTwitter | Instagram | LinkedInSubmit a question or topic for the podcast at ryanshoward.com/contactSupport the show

The latest Weekly Briefing covers the global outlook, financial markets and energy. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what the ceasefire in the Middle East means for growth and inflation, how quickly the world economy could recover if it holds, and what happens if fighting resumes.James Reilly, a Senior Economist on our Markets team, joins to run through updated forecasts for equities and bonds, why markets have held up relatively well, and why the stock market highs expected before the war now look out of reach.Plus, in an exclusive clip from a recent client briefing, our Climate & Commodities team explain why restoring oil supply is not as simple as flicking a switch, and the constraints on refined product output.Related Iran conflict: Global macro and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/iran-conflictWatch: How the Middle East conflict has changed the price outlookhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/commodities-drop-how-middle-east-conflict-has-changed-price-outlookMapping the next stage of the AI rallyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/equities-focus/mapping-next-stage-ai-rallyGet trial access: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/solutions/subscription-products#trial-request

Our updated macro and market forecasts assess the impact on growth and inflation – and the likely central bank response – under both baseline and adverse scenarios for the Middle East conflict. In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses why the more benign scenario would deliver a negative but manageable shock to the global economy, while a more adverse outcome could tip it into outright recession.Also on the show, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory explains why gilts have been the hardest hit among G10 government bonds as tensions have escalated. She explores the sharp shift in expectations for Bank of England policy and the underlying fiscal vulnerabilities fuelling market anxiety – including the risk of a change in government leadership.Read our latest Global Economic Outlook: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economic-outlook/forecasting-through-fog-war-1

Pity the poor central banker. As energy prices surge, they are grappling with the trade-off between growth and inflation, while trying to communicate this all to markets without triggering an unwanted tightening in financial conditions.At the end of an unusually busy week for policy meetings, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown assess how central banks are managing this difficult task, and whether investors are right to position for rate hikes from some banks that only a few weeks ago were expected to ease policy this year.In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, they talk to David Wilder about issues including:How inflation risks in the global economy are crystallising as the conflict approaches its fourth weekWhat separates central banks, from the Bank of England and ECB to the BOJ, RBA and the Fed, in how they are likely to respondWhether interest rate cuts would come back onto the table if the fighting were to endJoin our 26th March online briefings about our new macro and market forecasts: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-global-economic-and-market-outlook-pricing-energy-shock

Conflict in the Middle East, a surge in oil and gas prices, and a surprise drop in US payrolls – it's been a turbulent week for the global economy.In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Capital Economics Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss what the spreading Middle East conflict and sharp spike in energy prices mean for global growth and inflation, and why the latest US jobs report may not signal a major slowdown.Later, Senior Climate and Commodities Economist Kieran Tompkins explains the scale of disruption in global oil and gas markets, whether alternative supply can offset the shock and what the longer-term implications could be for energy markets.Read all our key insight into the Middle East conflict here:https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/iran-conflictGet in touch for a trial to our platform:podcast@capitaleconomics.com

The Supreme Court has finally ruled on Donald Trump's tariffs with an opinion that the president has no right to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. So what happens now?Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann join The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss the implications of this legal ruling for the US economy, for Federal Reserve policy and for financial markets. In their conversation with David Wilder, Stephen and Jonas address key issues, including:How the White House could rebuild its tariff regime – and rebuild it quicklyWhat happens when billions of dollars in tariff refunds flow back into US company accounts Why signs of resurgent inflationary pressures are narrowing the room for Fed rate cutsHow the bond market is responding to the Supreme Court newsWhy the stock market rally has stalled, and whether this news could get it going again.Related readingIEEPA ruling unlikely to pull PCE inflation back to 2%https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-economics-weekly/ieepa-ruling-unlikely-pull-pce-inflation-back-2Stock market rotation is a warning of trouble aheadhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/capital-daily/stock-market-rotation-warning-trouble-aheadSC rules that Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegalhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-rapid-response/sc-rules-trumps-ieepa-tariffs-are-illegal

Kevin Warsh has been named Donald Trump's pick to succeed Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing, Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown, and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann come together for a special episode of The Weekly Briefing to address the key questions raised by this announcement, including:Whether Warsh would deliver the kind of monetary easing Trump has been calling for;How Warsh's call to shrink the Fed's balance sheet would work, and what that could mean for Treasury yields;The implications for the dollar following an extraordinary week in currency markets.

Can you pitch yourself as a responsible global stakeholder at the same time as running a $1.2 trillion trade surplus? That's China's big global macro play, and it's one that Neil Shearing thinks China is going to struggle to pull off. The Group Chief Economist of Capital Economics is on The Weekly Briefing to explain what that mammoth trade imbalance means for advanced and emerging economies in a fracturing global economy, including why some EMs are doing quite well as a result of all of the geoeconomic ructions.Also on the show, there's an awful lot of noise around the race for AI leadership between the US and China, but how to separate out the hype from the reality? China Economist Leah Fahy's new report sizes up the progress that Chinese AI has made since the launch of DeepSeek a year ago, and the impact that Beijing's race for tech supremacy will have on the country's economic outlook.Six non-consensus calls for China for 2026China's AI rollout could rival the USDrop-In: The shape of the fractured world in 2026The economic and market impact of AI

The first trading week of 2026 has been a whirlwind of geopolitical shocks and big economic developments. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is back on The Weekly Briefing to break down an historic start to the year, including:The Maduro capture: Neil provides much-needed macro and market context behind the news of Nicolás Maduro's capture in Venezuela.AI and US productivity impacts: Whether the "stunning" Q3 US productivity numbers suggest massive AI investments are moving the needle for the US economy – and whether other economies will soon start feeling the benefit.The labour market and the Fed: A review of the December payrolls report and what it could mean for the Fed.Also on the show: David Oxley and Kieran Tompkins from our Commodities team join us to make sense of a volatile week in the oil market. They discuss the reality behind expectations for a surge in Venezuelan oil flows onto the global market.

This recovery in commercial real estate is unique. Across the US, Europe, and Asia, it has been defined by persistent weakness in both investment and prices. On this special episode of The Weekly Briefing, Chief Real Estate Economist Kiran Raichura and Senior Real Estate Economist Amy Wood join David Wilder to discuss whether this weakness will persist through 2026 and where investors can still find outperformance. Kiran and Amy address:Why higher-for-longer interest rates remain the primary determinant of returns for most clients.What is required to bridge the gap between seller and buyer price expectations.Which traditional sectors offer the best returns, and which alternatives will provide significant outperformance.Why private credit markets represent the greatest downside risk to commercial real estate in 2026.Further reading:Key themes for global commercial real estate in 2026Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q4 2025)

The final major week of the year in macro is in the books. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins The Weekly Briefing to explain why the latest US inflation report should be taken with a “bucketful of salt,” while reviewing the year-end moves from the BoE, BoJ, and ECB. He reviews the latest moves from the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the ECB, and talks about why a growing Chinese trade surplus has a corresponding deficit that could present a key risk to global macro stability.Plus, Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann discusses one of our most prominent calls for 2026: why, despite recent wobbles, the AI-driven equities bubble will continue to inflate.

In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing podcast, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown outline Capital Economics' expectations for 2026.They tackle the key drivers and risks in the year ahead, examining how the AI narrative will unfold, why the US will be a notable outperformer, how much further China's exporters can take market share and why a new Fed chair probably won't deliver the rate cuts that Donald Trump wants.Learn more: The World in 2026 homepage

The year began amid optimism that Europe was finally prepared to meet its economic potential. But as the end of 2025 approaches, how much has actually changed in the European story of weak growth and political fragmentation? In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing join David Wilder to what has – and hasn't – changed in the European outlook.They explore Europe's challenges in navigating an increasingly fractured global economy, including whether its industries are equipped to handle competitive pressures from the US and China, the risks stemming from elevated public debt, and why the urgency to ramp up defence spending isn't being met by action.Plus, in a clip from a recent client briefing, EM economists Liam Peach and William Jackson provide an update on the war in Ukraine and the latest White House efforts to broker a ceasefire.Analysis and events referenced in this episodeDrop-In: The World in 2026 - The global macro and market outlookSpotlight: The future of EuropeRead: ECB interest rates cuts doing little to boost growthWatch: China and Russia – The limits of the “no limits” partnershipRead: Russia & China: a “no limits” partnership with limits

Welcome to your Astro-CEO Weekly Briefing: your Monday reset for the week ahead. This episode walks you through the business impact of this week's astrology: • Moon in Aries • Venus sextile Pluto • Full Moon in Gemini • Mars trine Chiron • Sun square the North Node • Mercury trine Jupiter • Mercury meets Saturn If you've been feeling the pressure, this week brings the perspective you need to decide what actually matters. Inside the episode: • The weekly theme: Pressure → Perspective → Priorities • What each element (Fire, Earth, Air, Water) needs to focus on • One-line guidance for all twelve signs • The card pull of the week - Seven of Swords • The CEO actions that will keep your energy, creativity, and capacity steady If you want to understand your wiring and where your business is draining your energy, take my free Capacity Leak Assessment. It shows the exact place your system is overloaded.

Where is the big macro payoff from the surge in artificial intelligence investment? And is AI wiping out entry-level jobs? The latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics unpacks these questions and examines what this new wave of technology really means for growth and labour markets.The episode also marks the reopening of the US government with a clear assessment of the economic outlook, and explores how fiscal risks are disrupting politics across the US and Europe. These pressures are set to shape policy debates well into 2026.Analysis and events referenced in this episodeRead: How to think about AI investmentRead: Has the AI “jobpocalypse” begun?Read: China summer investment slump likely to be short-livedWatch: EM Drop-In: India at the geo-economic crossroadsCapital Economics events

Who was Rachel Reeves really speaking to when she hinted at higher taxes this week? How much of a threat is the Supreme Court to Treasury tariff revenues? And how useful is “G2” as a lens for the new global order? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks these big global macro questions in the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. Also on the show, Chief Markets Economist John Higgins assesses whether this week's sell-off marks the end of the great AI-driven US equity boom, or was just a wobble on the way to new highs.Analysis and events referenced in this episodeRead: UK Autumn Budget 2025 PreviewRead: How could the Budget influence UK housing?Drop-In: India at the geo-economic crossroadsDrop-In: Commercial Property Outlook - What to watch out for in 2026Read: Reliance on tech is a double-edged swordRead: What to make of the mixed reaction to this week's big-tech results

Out of the darkness of a shuttered US government comes a rare data release – and it's a CPI report that's given markets some relief as the week draws to a close. But does September's inflation data really clear the way for Fed rate cuts in December as well as October, as investors now expect?In this week's episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains why the Fed is likely to stay cautious, previews key upcoming central bank meetings, and looks ahead to next week's much-anticipated Donald Trump-Xi Jinping summit in South Korea.Also on the show, the US Treasury's new sanctions on Russia's two biggest oil exporters have brought a key risk to our below-consensus oil price forecasts to the fore. Chief Climate and Commodities Economist David Oxley discusses how much this move could shake up the outlook – and whether Trump will actually follow through with full enforcement.Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Read: China ramping up use of export controlsDrop-In: Argentina's mid-term elections – A referendum on Milei's reformsDrop-In: The Fed, ECB and Bank of England – Latest decisions and policy outlook

In just a few days, US–China relations have taken a troubling turn. How did we go from the goodwill of the London and Madrid bilaterals to the current war of words, the threats and the counter-threats? Is this simply pre-APEC brinkmanship, or the start of a more fundamental breakdown in relations between Washington and Beijing? And how great are the risks of a miscalculation that spills over into the global economy? In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Head of China Economics Julian Evans-Pritchard discuss the past, present and future of US–China relations. They explore key questions, including:• What's driving Beijing's new controls on rare earths, and whether the government could reverse course• What's wrong with US perceptions of China's economic health – and why those perceptions could prove dangerous • How the global economy will need to keep adjusting to a fracturing US-China relationshipAnalysis referenced in this episodeThe fracturing of the Global EconomyUS may revive plans to curb financial ties with ChinaGlobal Economics Outlook: US leads, others lag, in uneven global economyCAP: Economy holding up, but growth remains weakChina's push for innovation is not lifting productivity

This week: Once dismissed as greenwashing, carbon markets are now being reframed as a vital part of corporate decarbonization strategies. David Antonioli, former CEO of Verra, explains how integrity standards, market transparency, and long-term thinking could help rebuild trust and ensure carbon credits drive real climate impact.   Plus: Innovation Forum's Hannah Oborne explains how companies are shifting from offsets to real value chain reductions, building trust through data standardisation, and investing in collaboration to turn ambition into measurable progress.   Host: Ian Welsh   We'll be continuing the conversation at the scope 3 innovation forum (Washington DC, 3-4 December 2025). Listen to the full episode to reveal an exclusive discount. Click here for information on how to get involved.

How reliant is the US economy on the AI investment boom? It's a question Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing keeps getting in client meetings. On this episode of The Weekly Briefing, he tells David Wilder why there's more to the story than hype around a new technology. Neil also explains why France faces a political – but not an economic – crisis, and what to make of China's toughest moves yet to control rare earth exports.Also on the show, six months after Liberation Day, Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann assesses how predictions of the dollar's demise have played out and unpacks the market's striking response to Japan's new LDP leader.Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Watch: US Outlook – Weighing the AI boom, labour constraints and the Fed's next chapterRead: China tightens its grip on rare earths (again)Register: Markets Drop-In: Asset Allocation in 2026 – Why we don't think the AI equities boom is overRead: Japan coalition talksRead: What would PM Takaichi mean for Japan?

Our new Global Economic Outlook has just been published – and it makes for a striking contrast. In the US, the drag from Trump's policy agenda looks set to be outweighed by an AI-driven investment boom that may already be lifting productivity. In Europe, by contrast, the optimism seen earlier this year has faded as structural headwinds continue to hold growth back.In this episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explores how AI may be transforming America's potential, even as Europe struggles with long-standing weaknesses.Plus, a decade on from a devastating market crash, Asia-Pacific Markets head Thomas Mathews unpacks what's been driving China's equity boom this year – despite the broader economic weakness – and how sustainable it really is.Analysis and events referenced in this episodeGlobal Economic Outlook: US leads, others lag, in uneven global economyDrop-In: US Outlook – Weighing the AI boom, labour constraints and the Fed's next chapterDrop-In: China Outlook – Can policy reverse economic weakness?The economic and market impact of AIMore upside for China's stock market as its AI+ plan gets going

This week: With the global race to secure sustainable critical mineral supply chains intensifying, financing remains one of the sector's toughest hurdles. ING's Tim van Pelt talks with Innovation Forum's Ian Welsh to unpack where the gaps lie in funding critical mineral projects and how companies can navigate the challenges to unlock capital.   Plus: Innovation Forum's Emilia Colman highlights key emerging themes ahead of the Critical Minerals Innovation Forum in London this November from supply chain transparency and ESG pressures to shifting corporate strategies as demand accelerates.   Host: Ian Welsh   Click here for the recording of the recent streamlining standards webinar with ICMM and ZF Group, organised in the lead up to the Critical Minerals Innovation Forum on 5th-6th November. Join Anglo American, ICMM, Glencore, BHP, Vale Base Metals, Airbus, BASF, LG Energy Solutions, Ørsted, Standard Chartered Bank, and many more. Click here for more information on how to register, or contact emilia.colman@innovationforum.co.uk.

This week: blue carbon ecosystems such as mangroves, seagrass and salt marshes, can sequester carbon up to ten times faster than terrestrial forests, while also protecting coastlines and supporting biodiversity. Ahead of our webinar, Yihan Wang from Terraformation talks with Innovation Forum's Ellen Atiyah to explain their climate potential, why they remain undervalued and how projects like Ghana's Kita Blue Project are changing the story. Plus: Innovation Forum's Lia Da Giau shares insights on the trends reshaping packaging, from regulatory deadlines and circular models to breakthrough material and infrastructure solutions. Host: Ian Welsh Join us on Wednesday 17 September at 4pm CEST / 10am EDT for a complimentary webinar on the potential for blue carbon in net-zero strategies. Hear from Salesforce, Terraformation and Conservation International. Click here to reserve your spot. To continue the conversation on sustainable packaging, we will be in Chicago on 28-29 October for the upcoming sustainable packaging innovation forum. Click here for information on how to get involved.

Our guest this week is Neil Shearing. Neil is Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics and the author of a new book, The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy. In addition to managing a team of economists and serving as a voice in the investment community, Neil is an associate fellow at Chatham House, an international affairs think tank. He joined Capital Economics in 2006 from the United Kingdom's Treasury Ministry. He holds economics degrees from the University of London and the University of York.BackgroundBioThe Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global EconomyChatham House“Neil Shearing: What You Might Be Missing About the Current Economy,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, April 16, 2024.Global Economic Fracturing, Tariffs, and AI“America or China? As the Global Economy Fractures, the World Will Have to Choose,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Aug. 14, 2025.“Trump, Institutions, and the Deafening Silence of the Markets,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Aug. 6, 2025.“Chinese Overcapacity Is a Disinflationary Gift and a Geopolitical Threat,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, July 21, 2025.“Fiscal Stability Is Now as Much About People as Policy,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, July 14, 2025.“This Trade War Is the Symptom—Global Fracturing Is the Cause,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, July 7, 2025.“'Tariff Man' Returns, US-China Diverging Price Risks—and Is AI Triggering a Jobs Bloodbath?” The Weekly Briefing podcast, capitaleconomics.com, July 11, 2025.“Chip Choke: What Happens if China Throttles Taiwan's Economy,” by Neil Shearing, afr.com, April 26, 2025.OtherHuaweiSmoot-Hawley Tariff ActBIS Triennial Central Bank Survey“America's Biggest Rare-Earth Producer Makes a Play to End China's Dominance,” by Jon Emont, wsj.com, July 15, 2025.

This week: Davide Braghiroli, director for packaging sustainability solutions at Tetra Pak, talks with Ian Welsh about the impact of the European Union's packaging and packaging waste directive. They highlight how the regulation will change material choices, supply chain transparency and potential opportunities.   And, Innovation Forum's Lia Da Giau share latest updates in sustainable packaging, from the global plastics treaty to corporate innovation toward packaging circularity.   Host: Ian Welsh   We'll be continuing the conversation at the sustainable packaging innovation forum, taking place in Chicago on 28-29 October. Click here for information on how to get involved.

This week: Nicole Cramer, Rainforest Alliance, talks with Ian Welsh about the challenges involved in collecting farm level data, in particular the need to not overburden growers with unrealistic expectations and to ensure value incentives are set appropriately. And, Innovation Forum's Anamya Anurag discusses some of the emerging themes and innovation from companies sourcing tropical forest commodities.

Donald Trump and his trade war are symptoms, not causes, of a deeper shift in the global economic order. The world has fractured into rival blocs, with the US and China emerging as the poles of competing systems, vying for resources, technological dominance and geopolitical influence. Now, with Trump back in office, long-held assumptions about American leadership are once again in question. What does his return mean for the trajectory of this fracturing, and how has the balance of risks evolved?In this special edition of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams explore the fracturing of the global economy. Ahead of the publication of fresh analysis about how fracturing has developed since Trump's return, they talk to David Wilder about how this process began long before the president was elected in 2016,  how it's accelerating under his second term and where it might lead. Topics covered in this 30-minute episode include:The inevitability of US–China economic rivalry – and the scope for détenteHow fracturing is fuelling a global tech arms raceWhether Trump's unilateralism could further strain or even break Western alliances.Events and analysis referenced in this episode:Fracturing under Trump – Register now:Singapore, 3rd SeptemberHong Kong, 4th SeptemberLondon, 17th SeptemberNew York, 9th OctoberRead: The fracturing of the global economyRead: The US, China and the Fractured Age

Click here to send Ryan a text message!Episode #374This week saw Israel launch a massive airstrike on Iran, killing top IRGC leaders and exposing major defense vulnerabilities, prompting Trump to warn Iran to “make a deal before it's too late.” RFJ Jr. purges the CDC Vaccine Advisory Board. 17 China-linked VPN's in Apple and Google App stores. Plus much more on this week's weekly briefing.This episode covers:Israel's Massive Airstrike on Iran – 200+ targets hit, top commanders killed, nuclear sites damaged.Trump Warns Iran: Make a Deal or Else – Post-strike pressure as diplomacy clock runs out.U.S. Military Parade Ignites “No Kings” Protests – Over 1,500 protests across all 50 states.RFK Jr. Removes All 17 CDC Vaccine Board Members – Major shakeup over Pharma ties.China-Linked VPNs Still in U.S. App Stores – Tech watchdogs sound alarm on privacy risks.Agroterrorism & Biolab Smuggling – Chinese worms, pathogens, and FDA-approved threats.Congressional Stock Trades Surge After “Liberation Day” – Insider advantage exposed again.Trump Regains Control of California National Guard – Legal clash during LA immigration riots.Greta Thunberg Detained Near Gaza – Climate activist intercepted aboard protest boat.India Plane Crash Kills 241 – One of the deadliest aviation disasters in recent memory.HowToGrowYourFaith.com >> Learn the 5 Biggest Mistakes Christians Make In Their Walk With God (and how you can avoid them!)Sharable Episode Links (scroll down or search for this episode):Ryan's Website Buzzsprout Link MORE FROM RYAN:FREE DOWNLOAD: 21 Days to a Spirit-Led Life Subscribe on YouTubeTwitter | Instagram | LinkedInSubmit a question or topic for the podcast at ryanshoward.com/contactGet Ryan's eCourse & Coaching ProgramsSupport the show

Click here to send Ryan a text message!Episode #373This week's briefing brings highlights from some dramatic events over the past 7 days. Explosive fallout between Elon Musk and Donald Trump over taxes, Epstein ties, and political influence. The disturbing rise of AI companions and their impact on mental health, especially among youth. We also revisit the Tiananmen Square massacre, revealing how the U.S. response in 1989 helped empower the CCP for decades. Plus: new developments on UFO disinformation, forced organ harvesting in China, and the Supreme Court's controversial gun rights decision.Plus Ryan's commentary and insights from a biblical perspective.This week's highlights:Elon Musk vs Donald Trump – Public fallout, Epstein accusations, and political shockwavesAI Companions – The disturbing rise of digital addiction and emotional manipulationTiananmen Square 36th Anniversary – Why the CCP still fears the truth—and how America helped them cover it upSupreme Court's AR-15 Decision – A quiet blow to the Second AmendmentPentagon UFO Cover-Up – The real reason behind decades of disinformationTerror in Colorado – A Molotov and flamethrower attack ignored by mainstream mediaModerna Finally Faces a Placebo Trial – RFK Jr. calls out the vaccine industry's missing transparencyWatch this episode on YouTubeHowToGrowYourFaith.com >> Learn the 5 Biggest Mistakes Christians Make In Their Walk With God (and how you can avoid them!)Sharable Episode Links (scroll down or search for this episode):Ryan's Website Buzzsprout Link MORE FROM RYAN:FREE DOWNLOAD: 21 Days to a Spirit-Led Life Subscribe on YouTubeTwitter | Instagram | LinkedInSubmit a question or topic for the podcast at ryanshoward.com/contactGet Ryan's eCourse & Coaching ProgramsSupport the show

This week: Innovation Forum's Natasha Bodnar and Ian Welsh discuss the importance of a cross-industry insights in building partnerships, candid insights and fresh thinking on scope 3. They talk about what to expect at this week's scope 3 innovation forum, taking place in Amsterdam. Plus: Bertrand Conquéret, chief procurement officer at Henkel talks with Ian Welsh about how Henkel is leveraging procurement to lead cross-functional change and embed sustainability in product development. They highlight how to build supplier partnerships, particularly through coalitions such as Together for Sustainability — a now 50+ company coalition driving transparency and carbon data sharing across the chemical industry. Host: Ian Welsh

Click here to send Ryan a text message!Episode #371THE WEEKLY BRIEFING–A surprising surge in Bible engagement across America, major Supreme Court battles that could reshape religious freedom, parental rights, and immigration policy. Ryan also exposes covert CCP activity inside the U.S., new AI concerns, and toxic threats in our food system—all with bold, biblical commentary.Headlines covered:Bible reading surges among millennials and menSecret Chinese police station confirmed in New YorkSupreme Court takes on 9 major cases this JuneEspionage at the Federal ReserveAI model attempts blackmail to avoid shutdownU.S. expands visa crackdowns on Chinese nationalsNew COVID variant resurfaces amid China outbreakFood packaging chemicals linked to chronic illnessWatch this episode on YouTubeHowToGrowYourFaith.com >> Learn the 5 Biggest Mistakes Christians Make In Their Walk With God (and how you can avoid them!)Sharable Episode Links (scroll down or search for this episode):Ryan's Website Buzzsprout Link MORE FROM RYAN:FREE DOWNLOAD: 21 Days to a Spirit-Led Life Subscribe on YouTubeTwitter | Instagram | LinkedInSubmit a question or topic for the podcast at ryanshoward.com/contactGet Ryan's eCourse & Coaching Program.Support the show

Click here to send Ryan a text message!Episode #370On this week's WEEKLY BRIEFING: 17 urgent headlines every Christian needs to know. From Trump confronting South Africa's president over white farmer violence, to shocking national security risks tied to China's solar tech, to a total reversal in U.S. flu vaccine strategy—this episode unpacks what's happening and why it matters with Ryan's commentary through a biblical lens.Topics covered:Trump humiliates South Africa's president at the White HouseChina's hidden kill switches in U.S. infrastructureHHS quietly dismantles flu vaccine strategy under RFK Jr.CIA declares China an existential tech threatGaza conflict escalates with Operation Gideon's ChariotsMuch moreWatch this episode on YouTubeHowToGrowYourFaith.com >> Learn the 5 Biggest Mistakes Christians Make In Their Walk With God (and how you can avoid them!)Sharable Episode Links (scroll down or search for this episode):Ryan's Website Buzzsprout Link MORE FROM RYAN:FREE DOWNLOAD: 21 Days to a Spirit-Led Life Subscribe on YouTubeTwitter | Instagram | LinkedInSubmit a question or topic for the podcast at ryanshoward.com/contactGet Ryan's eCourse & Coaching ProgramsSupport the show

Click here to send Ryan a text message!Episode #369Introducing The Weekly Briefing—a new weekly segment that will give you the week's top headlines that matter most and the truth behind them. This new segment will keep you informed and will equip and embolden you to stand for truth. Ryan begins with a quick review of the important headlines—followed by his commentary filled with practical and biblical insights that will help you navigate the cultural chaos with a biblical and faith-first lens. In this episode:HHS reverses course on recommending the COVID vaccine for kids and pregnant womenIsrael faces rising threats—could this tie into Ezekiel 38?FDA announces AI integration across departments (yes, for drug approvals too)Big Tech and the FBI: New evidence of coordinated censorshipReal ID is now required—what it means for your freedomTrump's $2T Middle East tour and its prophetic and geopolitical implications380 million Christians persecuted worldwide—where's the outrage?Watch this episode on YouTubeHowToGrowYourFaith.com >> Learn the 5 Biggest Mistakes Christians Make In Their Walk With God (and how you can avoid them!)Sharable Episode Links (scroll down or search for this episode):Ryan's Website Buzzsprout Link MORE FROM RYAN:FREE DOWNLOAD: 21 Days to a Spirit-Led Life Subscribe on YouTubeTwitter | Instagram | LinkedInSubmit a question or topic for the podcast at ryanshoward.com/contactGet Ryan's eCourse & Coaching ProgramsSupport the show

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