Podcasts about weekly briefing

Who was Rachel Reeves really speaking to when she hinted at higher taxes this week? How much of a threat is the Supreme Court to Treasury tariff revenues? And how useful is “G2” as a lens for the new global order? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks these big global macro questions in the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. Also on the show, Chief Markets Economist John Higgins assesses whether this week's sell-off marks the end of the great AI-driven US equity boom, or was just a wobble on the way to new highs.Analysis and events referenced in this episodeRead: UK Autumn Budget 2025 PreviewRead: How could the Budget influence UK housing?Drop-In: India at the geo-economic crossroadsDrop-In: Commercial Property Outlook - What to watch out for in 2026Read: Reliance on tech is a double-edged swordRead: What to make of the mixed reaction to this week's big-tech results

Out of the darkness of a shuttered US government comes a rare data release – and it's a CPI report that's given markets some relief as the week draws to a close. But does September's inflation data really clear the way for Fed rate cuts in December as well as October, as investors now expect?In this week's episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains why the Fed is likely to stay cautious, previews key upcoming central bank meetings, and looks ahead to next week's much-anticipated Donald Trump-Xi Jinping summit in South Korea.Also on the show, the US Treasury's new sanctions on Russia's two biggest oil exporters have brought a key risk to our below-consensus oil price forecasts to the fore. Chief Climate and Commodities Economist David Oxley discusses how much this move could shake up the outlook – and whether Trump will actually follow through with full enforcement.Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Read: China ramping up use of export controlsDrop-In: Argentina's mid-term elections – A referendum on Milei's reformsDrop-In: The Fed, ECB and Bank of England – Latest decisions and policy outlook

In just a few days, US–China relations have taken a troubling turn. How did we go from the goodwill of the London and Madrid bilaterals to the current war of words, the threats and the counter-threats? Is this simply pre-APEC brinkmanship, or the start of a more fundamental breakdown in relations between Washington and Beijing? And how great are the risks of a miscalculation that spills over into the global economy? In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Head of China Economics Julian Evans-Pritchard discuss the past, present and future of US–China relations. They explore key questions, including:• What's driving Beijing's new controls on rare earths, and whether the government could reverse course• What's wrong with US perceptions of China's economic health – and why those perceptions could prove dangerous • How the global economy will need to keep adjusting to a fracturing US-China relationshipAnalysis referenced in this episodeThe fracturing of the Global EconomyUS may revive plans to curb financial ties with ChinaGlobal Economics Outlook: US leads, others lag, in uneven global economyCAP: Economy holding up, but growth remains weakChina's push for innovation is not lifting productivity

This week: Once dismissed as greenwashing, carbon markets are now being reframed as a vital part of corporate decarbonization strategies. David Antonioli, former CEO of Verra, explains how integrity standards, market transparency, and long-term thinking could help rebuild trust and ensure carbon credits drive real climate impact.   Plus: Innovation Forum's Hannah Oborne explains how companies are shifting from offsets to real value chain reductions, building trust through data standardisation, and investing in collaboration to turn ambition into measurable progress.   Host: Ian Welsh   We'll be continuing the conversation at the scope 3 innovation forum (Washington DC, 3-4 December 2025). Listen to the full episode to reveal an exclusive discount. Click here for information on how to get involved.

How reliant is the US economy on the AI investment boom? It's a question Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing keeps getting in client meetings. On this episode of The Weekly Briefing, he tells David Wilder why there's more to the story than hype around a new technology. Neil also explains why France faces a political – but not an economic – crisis, and what to make of China's toughest moves yet to control rare earth exports.Also on the show, six months after Liberation Day, Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann assesses how predictions of the dollar's demise have played out and unpacks the market's striking response to Japan's new LDP leader.Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Watch: US Outlook – Weighing the AI boom, labour constraints and the Fed's next chapterRead: China tightens its grip on rare earths (again)Register: Markets Drop-In: Asset Allocation in 2026 – Why we don't think the AI equities boom is overRead: Japan coalition talksRead: What would PM Takaichi mean for Japan?

Our new Global Economic Outlook has just been published – and it makes for a striking contrast. In the US, the drag from Trump's policy agenda looks set to be outweighed by an AI-driven investment boom that may already be lifting productivity. In Europe, by contrast, the optimism seen earlier this year has faded as structural headwinds continue to hold growth back.In this episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explores how AI may be transforming America's potential, even as Europe struggles with long-standing weaknesses.Plus, a decade on from a devastating market crash, Asia-Pacific Markets head Thomas Mathews unpacks what's been driving China's equity boom this year – despite the broader economic weakness – and how sustainable it really is.Analysis and events referenced in this episodeGlobal Economic Outlook: US leads, others lag, in uneven global economyDrop-In: US Outlook – Weighing the AI boom, labour constraints and the Fed's next chapterDrop-In: China Outlook – Can policy reverse economic weakness?The economic and market impact of AIMore upside for China's stock market as its AI+ plan gets going

This week: With the global race to secure sustainable critical mineral supply chains intensifying, financing remains one of the sector's toughest hurdles. ING's Tim van Pelt talks with Innovation Forum's Ian Welsh to unpack where the gaps lie in funding critical mineral projects and how companies can navigate the challenges to unlock capital.   Plus: Innovation Forum's Emilia Colman highlights key emerging themes ahead of the Critical Minerals Innovation Forum in London this November from supply chain transparency and ESG pressures to shifting corporate strategies as demand accelerates.   Host: Ian Welsh   Click here for the recording of the recent streamlining standards webinar with ICMM and ZF Group, organised in the lead up to the Critical Minerals Innovation Forum on 5th-6th November. Join Anglo American, ICMM, Glencore, BHP, Vale Base Metals, Airbus, BASF, LG Energy Solutions, Ørsted, Standard Chartered Bank, and many more. Click here for more information on how to register, or contact emilia.colman@innovationforum.co.uk.

This week: blue carbon ecosystems such as mangroves, seagrass and salt marshes, can sequester carbon up to ten times faster than terrestrial forests, while also protecting coastlines and supporting biodiversity. Ahead of our webinar, Yihan Wang from Terraformation talks with Innovation Forum's Ellen Atiyah to explain their climate potential, why they remain undervalued and how projects like Ghana's Kita Blue Project are changing the story. Plus: Innovation Forum's Lia Da Giau shares insights on the trends reshaping packaging, from regulatory deadlines and circular models to breakthrough material and infrastructure solutions. Host: Ian Welsh Join us on Wednesday 17 September at 4pm CEST / 10am EDT for a complimentary webinar on the potential for blue carbon in net-zero strategies. Hear from Salesforce, Terraformation and Conservation International. Click here to reserve your spot. To continue the conversation on sustainable packaging, we will be in Chicago on 28-29 October for the upcoming sustainable packaging innovation forum. Click here for information on how to get involved.

Our guest this week is Neil Shearing. Neil is Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics and the author of a new book, The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy. In addition to managing a team of economists and serving as a voice in the investment community, Neil is an associate fellow at Chatham House, an international affairs think tank. He joined Capital Economics in 2006 from the United Kingdom's Treasury Ministry. He holds economics degrees from the University of London and the University of York.BackgroundBioThe Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global EconomyChatham House“Neil Shearing: What You Might Be Missing About the Current Economy,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, April 16, 2024.Global Economic Fracturing, Tariffs, and AI“America or China? As the Global Economy Fractures, the World Will Have to Choose,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Aug. 14, 2025.“Trump, Institutions, and the Deafening Silence of the Markets,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Aug. 6, 2025.“Chinese Overcapacity Is a Disinflationary Gift and a Geopolitical Threat,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, July 21, 2025.“Fiscal Stability Is Now as Much About People as Policy,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, July 14, 2025.“This Trade War Is the Symptom—Global Fracturing Is the Cause,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, July 7, 2025.“'Tariff Man' Returns, US-China Diverging Price Risks—and Is AI Triggering a Jobs Bloodbath?” The Weekly Briefing podcast, capitaleconomics.com, July 11, 2025.“Chip Choke: What Happens if China Throttles Taiwan's Economy,” by Neil Shearing, afr.com, April 26, 2025.OtherHuaweiSmoot-Hawley Tariff ActBIS Triennial Central Bank Survey“America's Biggest Rare-Earth Producer Makes a Play to End China's Dominance,” by Jon Emont, wsj.com, July 15, 2025.

This week: Davide Braghiroli, director for packaging sustainability solutions at Tetra Pak, talks with Ian Welsh about the impact of the European Union's packaging and packaging waste directive. They highlight how the regulation will change material choices, supply chain transparency and potential opportunities.   And, Innovation Forum's Lia Da Giau share latest updates in sustainable packaging, from the global plastics treaty to corporate innovation toward packaging circularity.   Host: Ian Welsh   We'll be continuing the conversation at the sustainable packaging innovation forum, taking place in Chicago on 28-29 October. Click here for information on how to get involved.

This week: Nicole Cramer, Rainforest Alliance, talks with Ian Welsh about the challenges involved in collecting farm level data, in particular the need to not overburden growers with unrealistic expectations and to ensure value incentives are set appropriately. And, Innovation Forum's Anamya Anurag discusses some of the emerging themes and innovation from companies sourcing tropical forest commodities.

Donald Trump and his trade war are symptoms, not causes, of a deeper shift in the global economic order. The world has fractured into rival blocs, with the US and China emerging as the poles of competing systems, vying for resources, technological dominance and geopolitical influence. Now, with Trump back in office, long-held assumptions about American leadership are once again in question. What does his return mean for the trajectory of this fracturing, and how has the balance of risks evolved?In this special edition of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams explore the fracturing of the global economy. Ahead of the publication of fresh analysis about how fracturing has developed since Trump's return, they talk to David Wilder about how this process began long before the president was elected in 2016,  how it's accelerating under his second term and where it might lead. Topics covered in this 30-minute episode include:The inevitability of US–China economic rivalry – and the scope for détenteHow fracturing is fuelling a global tech arms raceWhether Trump's unilateralism could further strain or even break Western alliances.Events and analysis referenced in this episode:Fracturing under Trump – Register now:Singapore, 3rd SeptemberHong Kong, 4th SeptemberLondon, 17th SeptemberNew York, 9th OctoberRead: The fracturing of the global economyRead: The US, China and the Fractured Age

On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to unpack the key developments in global macro and markets, including:What to expect as the ‘Liberation Day' tariff pause approaches expiryWhether the US and EU can strike a trade deal in timeWhy China is central to the US–Vietnam trade agreementWhat's really troubling about the passage of Trump's “big, beautiful” tax billWhat moves in gilt and sterling markets this week revealed about the UK Labour Party's fiscal credibilityAlso on the show, Senior Global Economist Ariane Curtis discusses her new in-depth report on the outlook for global trade amid rising tariffs. She explains why her forecasts challenge the narrative of deglobalisation and also shares highlights from our latest Global Economic Outlook, including China's looming slowdown and India's relative outperformance.Analysis and data referenced in this episode:Data: China-US Trade ReroutingData: Tariff Impact ModelRead: What do tariffs mean for global trade?Data: Euro-zone Debt Sustainability Monitor

A ceasefire in the Middle East. A US-China deal. Relatively benign dataflow. The S&P 500 back at a record high. But are things really looking up? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk to David Wilder about fragilities under the surface of the global economy. He discusses worldwide fiscal risks, why there's less to see with that US-China deal and those divisions on the FOMC. Also on the show, BYD and DeepSeek may be in the spotlight, but their rise reflects deeper structural flaws in China's economy. They're a sign of economic success, but also of the growing distortions in the government's industrial strategy – weaknesses that are increasingly evident in China's dismal productivity data. Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams has been delving into the details of Xi Jinping's industrial roadmap and the productivity data to tell David what this all says about China's economic outlook.Events and analysis referenced in this podcast:Read: China's push for innovation is not lifting productivityRoundtable: One year on: Is the UK government boosting growth?Read: Fed independence not a concern for markets, yetRead: APAC Commercial Property Outlook: Values to fall as region's markets struggle to recoverData: APAC Commercial Property

After Israel and Iran agreed to stop fighting, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Climate and Commodities Economist David Oxley are on this special episode of the Weekly Briefing to discuss what follows, including why oil prices are set to remain under pressure as the market attention shifts back to fundamentals, and the impact of other notable uncertainties such as the fiscal bill making its way through Congress and the looming expirations of Trump's tariff pauses.Analysis referenced in this episodeOil market fundamentals snap back into focusCommodities Outlook: Instability and tariffs cloud otherwise bearish outlookIsrael-Iran and economic risk in a world of radical uncertainty

Click here to send Ryan a text message!Episode #374This week saw Israel launch a massive airstrike on Iran, killing top IRGC leaders and exposing major defense vulnerabilities, prompting Trump to warn Iran to “make a deal before it's too late.” RFJ Jr. purges the CDC Vaccine Advisory Board. 17 China-linked VPN's in Apple and Google App stores. Plus much more on this week's weekly briefing.This episode covers:Israel's Massive Airstrike on Iran – 200+ targets hit, top commanders killed, nuclear sites damaged.Trump Warns Iran: Make a Deal or Else – Post-strike pressure as diplomacy clock runs out.U.S. Military Parade Ignites “No Kings” Protests – Over 1,500 protests across all 50 states.RFK Jr. Removes All 17 CDC Vaccine Board Members – Major shakeup over Pharma ties.China-Linked VPNs Still in U.S. App Stores – Tech watchdogs sound alarm on privacy risks.Agroterrorism & Biolab Smuggling – Chinese worms, pathogens, and FDA-approved threats.Congressional Stock Trades Surge After “Liberation Day” – Insider advantage exposed again.Trump Regains Control of California National Guard – Legal clash during LA immigration riots.Greta Thunberg Detained Near Gaza – Climate activist intercepted aboard protest boat.India Plane Crash Kills 241 – One of the deadliest aviation disasters in recent memory.HowToGrowYourFaith.com >> Learn the 5 Biggest Mistakes Christians Make In Their Walk With God (and how you can avoid them!)Sharable Episode Links (scroll down or search for this episode):Ryan's Website Buzzsprout Link MORE FROM RYAN:FREE DOWNLOAD: 21 Days to a Spirit-Led Life Subscribe on YouTubeTwitter | Instagram | LinkedInSubmit a question or topic for the podcast at ryanshoward.com/contactGet Ryan's eCourse & Coaching ProgramsSupport the show

Click here to send Ryan a text message!Episode #373This week's briefing brings highlights from some dramatic events over the past 7 days. Explosive fallout between Elon Musk and Donald Trump over taxes, Epstein ties, and political influence. The disturbing rise of AI companions and their impact on mental health, especially among youth. We also revisit the Tiananmen Square massacre, revealing how the U.S. response in 1989 helped empower the CCP for decades. Plus: new developments on UFO disinformation, forced organ harvesting in China, and the Supreme Court's controversial gun rights decision.Plus Ryan's commentary and insights from a biblical perspective.This week's highlights:Elon Musk vs Donald Trump – Public fallout, Epstein accusations, and political shockwavesAI Companions – The disturbing rise of digital addiction and emotional manipulationTiananmen Square 36th Anniversary – Why the CCP still fears the truth—and how America helped them cover it upSupreme Court's AR-15 Decision – A quiet blow to the Second AmendmentPentagon UFO Cover-Up – The real reason behind decades of disinformationTerror in Colorado – A Molotov and flamethrower attack ignored by mainstream mediaModerna Finally Faces a Placebo Trial – RFK Jr. calls out the vaccine industry's missing transparencyWatch this episode on YouTubeHowToGrowYourFaith.com >> Learn the 5 Biggest Mistakes Christians Make In Their Walk With God (and how you can avoid them!)Sharable Episode Links (scroll down or search for this episode):Ryan's Website Buzzsprout Link MORE FROM RYAN:FREE DOWNLOAD: 21 Days to a Spirit-Led Life Subscribe on YouTubeTwitter | Instagram | LinkedInSubmit a question or topic for the podcast at ryanshoward.com/contactGet Ryan's eCourse & Coaching ProgramsSupport the show

This week: Innovation Forum's Natasha Bodnar and Ian Welsh discuss the importance of a cross-industry insights in building partnerships, candid insights and fresh thinking on scope 3. They talk about what to expect at this week's scope 3 innovation forum, taking place in Amsterdam. Plus: Bertrand Conquéret, chief procurement officer at Henkel talks with Ian Welsh about how Henkel is leveraging procurement to lead cross-functional change and embed sustainability in product development. They highlight how to build supplier partnerships, particularly through coalitions such as Together for Sustainability — a now 50+ company coalition driving transparency and carbon data sharing across the chemical industry. Host: Ian Welsh

Click here to send Ryan a text message!Episode #371THE WEEKLY BRIEFING–A surprising surge in Bible engagement across America, major Supreme Court battles that could reshape religious freedom, parental rights, and immigration policy. Ryan also exposes covert CCP activity inside the U.S., new AI concerns, and toxic threats in our food system—all with bold, biblical commentary.Headlines covered:Bible reading surges among millennials and menSecret Chinese police station confirmed in New YorkSupreme Court takes on 9 major cases this JuneEspionage at the Federal ReserveAI model attempts blackmail to avoid shutdownU.S. expands visa crackdowns on Chinese nationalsNew COVID variant resurfaces amid China outbreakFood packaging chemicals linked to chronic illnessWatch this episode on YouTubeHowToGrowYourFaith.com >> Learn the 5 Biggest Mistakes Christians Make In Their Walk With God (and how you can avoid them!)Sharable Episode Links (scroll down or search for this episode):Ryan's Website Buzzsprout Link MORE FROM RYAN:FREE DOWNLOAD: 21 Days to a Spirit-Led Life Subscribe on YouTubeTwitter | Instagram | LinkedInSubmit a question or topic for the podcast at ryanshoward.com/contactGet Ryan's eCourse & Coaching Program.Support the show

Click here to send Ryan a text message!Episode #370On this week's WEEKLY BRIEFING: 17 urgent headlines every Christian needs to know. From Trump confronting South Africa's president over white farmer violence, to shocking national security risks tied to China's solar tech, to a total reversal in U.S. flu vaccine strategy—this episode unpacks what's happening and why it matters with Ryan's commentary through a biblical lens.Topics covered:Trump humiliates South Africa's president at the White HouseChina's hidden kill switches in U.S. infrastructureHHS quietly dismantles flu vaccine strategy under RFK Jr.CIA declares China an existential tech threatGaza conflict escalates with Operation Gideon's ChariotsMuch moreWatch this episode on YouTubeHowToGrowYourFaith.com >> Learn the 5 Biggest Mistakes Christians Make In Their Walk With God (and how you can avoid them!)Sharable Episode Links (scroll down or search for this episode):Ryan's Website Buzzsprout Link MORE FROM RYAN:FREE DOWNLOAD: 21 Days to a Spirit-Led Life Subscribe on YouTubeTwitter | Instagram | LinkedInSubmit a question or topic for the podcast at ryanshoward.com/contactGet Ryan's eCourse & Coaching ProgramsSupport the show

Click here to send Ryan a text message!Episode #369Introducing The Weekly Briefing—a new weekly segment that will give you the week's top headlines that matter most and the truth behind them. This new segment will keep you informed and will equip and embolden you to stand for truth. Ryan begins with a quick review of the important headlines—followed by his commentary filled with practical and biblical insights that will help you navigate the cultural chaos with a biblical and faith-first lens. In this episode:HHS reverses course on recommending the COVID vaccine for kids and pregnant womenIsrael faces rising threats—could this tie into Ezekiel 38?FDA announces AI integration across departments (yes, for drug approvals too)Big Tech and the FBI: New evidence of coordinated censorshipReal ID is now required—what it means for your freedomTrump's $2T Middle East tour and its prophetic and geopolitical implications380 million Christians persecuted worldwide—where's the outrage?Watch this episode on YouTubeHowToGrowYourFaith.com >> Learn the 5 Biggest Mistakes Christians Make In Their Walk With God (and how you can avoid them!)Sharable Episode Links (scroll down or search for this episode):Ryan's Website Buzzsprout Link MORE FROM RYAN:FREE DOWNLOAD: 21 Days to a Spirit-Led Life Subscribe on YouTubeTwitter | Instagram | LinkedInSubmit a question or topic for the podcast at ryanshoward.com/contactGet Ryan's eCourse & Coaching ProgramsSupport the show

Things are looking up after the US and China de-escalated their trade war, but is the global economy off the hook? In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tells David Wilder why the tariff situation is looking brighter, but also identifies the key flashpoints to watch in the coming weeks. John Higgins, our Chief Markets Economist, is also on the show to talk about the financial markets angle to this turnaround in global sentiment. He sees more upside for US equities, even after the notable gains of recent weeks, and isn't convinced that investors have set themselves up for a fall. Plus, following the launch of our ‘Future of Europe' series, Franziska Palmas discuss how Germany's economic outlook is looking a bit more optimistic, but also why the bloc's biggest economy will continue to struggle – and what that means for boosters of the idea of the EU becoming a third geo-economic pillar alongside the US and China. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Global Trade Stress MonitorCapital Daily: US big tech is back … but not at China's expenseCapital Daily: Back to the future?Capital Economics EventsData: Global Markets ForecastsThe Future of Europe

One deal down. Many, many more to go. Except there was less to that much-touted US-UK trade deal than either government is suggesting and far tougher US talks with China and the EU are still to come.In this week's episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Head of China Economics Julian Evans-Pritchard unpack what was actually agreed between the US and UK, and look ahead to this weekend's pivotal US-China negotiations in Switzerland.Julian discusses the outlook for China's exports following their remarkable post-pandemic surge and considers what further stimulus measures might be on the cards. Neil assesses the broader state of global trade ahead of the looming expiration of Donald Trump's 90-day reciprocal tariff pause.Neil also offers a preview of our major upcoming series on the future of Europe – an in-depth project that cuts through the recent optimism to deliver clear-headed analysis, robust data, and compelling presentations.Events and analysis referenced in this episodeThe Future of EuropeData: Tariff Impact ModelData: China Labour Market Indicator

If you're looking for evidence of the negative hit from Donald Trump's tariffs, you'll struggle to find it in the hard data. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics minutes after the release of the US employment report for April to talk about how economies have been holding up in the weeks since the ‘Liberation Day' announcement. In his conversation with David Wilder, he addresses the key issues of the moment, including:What Q1 US GDP data and port data aren't telling us about the negative hit to impact on economies from tariffs;Whether markets have become too complacent about the tariffs impact;How the tariffs threat will influence the Federal Reserve and Bank of England at their meetings in the coming week.Plus, ahead of a key OPEC+ meeting on Monday, David Oxley and Olivia Cross from our Commodities & Climate desk talk about what recent signals from Saudi officials could mean for already-weak oil prices. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:Global Drop-In: The Fed, Bank of England and ECB – Making sense of the latest rate decisionsData: Central Bank HubDrop-In: Which economies could gain if the US turns away from China?Read: Will Asia benefit from China's plunging US exports?Drop-In: The future of OPEC+, oil prices and the Gulf

Another rollercoaster week in Trumpland wound down with markets buoyant on reports of more White House softening in its approach to tariffs and China taking steps to ease restrictions on some US imports. But are things really looking up? And, if so, why hasn't the dollar bounced with equities?Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, are on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to assess whether there has been a fundamental improvement in the outlook, or if this is a case of investors smoking too much “hopium”. In a wide ranging chat, they discuss:What the latest economic data suggest about the impact of higher tariffs;The chances that the US and China engage enough to get a deal done;Whether King Dollar could be overthrown – and the risks of a dollar crash. Events and analysis referenced in this episodeRecording: Is the dollar's global dominance a casualty of tariff chaos?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-dollars-global-dominance-casualty-tariff-chaosANZ Drop-In: Australia's election, RBA easing and the economic outlookhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/anz-drop-australias-election-rba-easing-and-economic-outlookDrop-In: 100 Days In – The economic impact of Trump's second term so farhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-100-days-economic-impact-trumps-second-term-so-far

Neil Shearing has been in back-to-back meetings with global institutions who – like everyone – are trying to make sense of Trump's chaotic trade policy roll-out, not least the recent decision to pause "reciprocal" tariffs for 90 days. The Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics joins the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing to address some of the questions that have kept coming up in those sit-downs with clients, including:What the global trading picture might look like when the 90-day tariffs “pause” endsWhy we think US growth risks have risen but we still don't expect a recession How the Federal Reserve will play slower growth with higher inflationWhat curbs on Nvidia chips tells us about decision-making amid Trumpian uncertainty If there's a US-China trade deal to be doneAnalysis referenced in this episode:Read: Will tariffs drive a flood of Chinese exports elsewhere?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/will-tariffs-drive-flood-chinese-exports-elsewhereRead: Is China offloading its dollar assets?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-focus/china-offloading-its-dollar-assetsData: Tariff Impact Model (TIM)https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/tariff-impact-modelRead: US Outlook - Scaled-back tariffs not an existential threathttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-economic-outlook/scaled-back-tariffs-not-existential-threatRead: ECB Policy Announcement (April 2025)https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-rapid-response/ecb-policy-announcement-april-2025

There's a “whiff of stagflation” around the US economy – and that's even before Donald Trump rolls out his reciprocal tariffs plan. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing hops off a plane from New York and onto The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to give his take on the latest US consumption and price data, to preview March payrolls and to talk about what this all means for the US and global macro outlook. He's joined by Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, who explains what all of this means for US markets exceptionalism.Also on this week's episode, our China Activity Proxy is our long-running proprietary read of what's really happening with Chinese economic activity. Leah Fahy from our China team is on to discuss what the latest read of this widely followed indicator says about the trajectory for Chinese growth in 2025. Analysis referenced in this episodeThe beginning of the end of US exceptionalism?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/asset-allocation-update/beginning-end-us-exceptionalismGlobal Economic Outlook: Trade war to dampen, not derail, global growthhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economic-outlook/global-economic-outlook-trade-war-dampen-not-derail-globalData: China Activity Proxyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/china-activity-proxyCAP: Weak start to the year for China's economyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-activity-monitor/cap-weak-start-year-chinas-economy

In light of Donald Trump's decision to push the button on tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins a special episode of the Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about whether this signals the start of a global trade war. He also discusses what's coming next and whether signs of US economic weakness could prompt a shift in the White House's trade strategy.China Economics Head Julian Evans-Pritchard, Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Chief EM Economist William Jackson are also on the show to talk about the economic implications for China, Canada and Mexico, and how their governments might respond. Events referenced in this episode:Global Drop-In: Trump tariffs hit China, Mexico and Canada – Macro and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-trump-tariffs-hit-china-mexico-and-canada-macro-and-market-implicationsChina Drop-In: 2025 NPC – Setting policy goals in a trickier global environmenthttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/china-drop-2025-npc-setting-policy-goals-trickier-global-environment

It's been an extraordinary week in geopolitics, with direct US-Russia talks, a war of words between Washington and Kyiv and Europe swept by fears about the end of the US security backstop. But how much has really changed? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham are on the Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about separating the reality from the headlines. They discuss intensifying strains between the US and Europe, the constraints on any breakdown in relations, global economic fracturing and the outlook for European defence spending and how it will be funded.Also this week, in an exclusive excerpt from our recent client briefing on the issues around the Ukraine war, Senior EM Economist Liam Peach talks about what a potential peace deal could mean for the region's economies and how US-Russia relations are set to evolve. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Explore: Global economic fracturinghttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/fracturing-global-economyDrop-In: German election 2025 – The new government's domestic and global challengeshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-german-election-2025-new-governments-domestic-and-global-challengesEM Drop-in: EM financial risk update – The state of sovereign, bank and FX vulnerabilitieshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/em-drop-em-financial-risk-update-state-sovereign-bank-and-fx-vulnerabilities

Why did markets greet the latest White House tariffs announcement so warmly? Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about the influence of Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs plan on investor sentiment and discuss where the much-vaunted 'Trump trade' goes from here. The episode's main item is all about Germany. With voters in the euro-zone's biggest economy heading to the polls on 23rd February, Andrew Kenningham and Elias Hilmer from our Europe team talk about what the next government could look like. They address whether the anticipated governing coalition will have the appetite to overhaul the country's stalled growth model, and how Germany will fare in a world increasingly shaped by Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.Analysis and data referenced in this episode:Euro-zone Drop-In: German election 2025 – Macro and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/euro-zone-drop-german-election-2025-macro-and-market-implicationsGerman economy post-election: from bad to not much betterhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-focus/german-economy-post-election-bad-not-much-betterData: Euro-zone Debt Sustainability Monitorhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/euro-zone-debt-sustainability-monitorThe slow agony of Germany's auto industryhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-focus/slow-agony-germanys-auto-industry

It's been a drama-filled week in Trumpland and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to take stock of what happened, what didn't happen, and the implications for macro and markets.As well as discussing the lessons learned from Donald Trump's trade actions so far, Neil reviews the latest US labour market data and talks about why Europe and the US appear to be on such divergent economic paths.Also on the episode, China Economist Leah Fahy talks to Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah about her striking new analysis which shows how China is taking market share from low-end EM manufacturers, upending a long-standing theory about how these economies industrialise in the process. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:EMs and the suspension of US aidhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/emerging-markets-economics-update/ems-and-suspension-us-aidDrop In: Global Inflation Watch - How US and EU inflation paths are diverginghttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-global-inflation-watch-how-us-and-eu-inflation-paths-are-divergingCommodities Drop-In: Trump tariffs and global commodities marketshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/commodities-drop-trump-tariffs-and-global-commodities-markets

This week: Ellen Atiyah and Ian Welsh reflect on the outcomes from the recent European Union Deforestation Regulation webinar series, which discussed the impact of the delay will have over the coming months on value chains across the palm oil, soy, coffee and cocoa sectors. And  Lia Da Giau and Ian take about innovation in sustainable packaging. They highlight examples of material innovation and post-consumer waste management. Host: Ian Welsh For information on how to get involved at the sustainable packaging innovation forum in May in Amsterdam, click here. Click here for more information on upcoming complimentary webinars.

Donald Trump ended weeks of speculation on Saturday with the formal announcement of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China. As those countries respond, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder on this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about whether this marks the beginning of a global trade war. Neil addresses the immediate economic threats to Canada and Mexico, but also explains why these tariffs end the chance of any more rate cuts from the Fed. He also discusses what further action Trump could take against US trade partners – not least China – and the broader risks to the global trading environment. For more on the Trump policy agenda and its macro implications, see this dedicated page:https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/trumps-second-term

This week: a preview of upcoming interview with Marty Matlock from the University of Arkansas discussing how the US agricultural sector can be better than carbon neutral. Plus: Hannah Oborne and Ian Welsh talk about latest exciting innovations in the food sector, such as dairy alternatives and recyclable food packaging. And, continuing the conversation on supply chain decarbonisation, Ian is joined by Natasha Bodnar to highlight emerging themes in 2025. They discuss the importance of industry alignment and partnership for net zero success, and ongoing issues of data and reporting fatigue.   Host: Ian Welsh

Donald Trump unsurprisingly dominated the news cycle in his first week back in office. To make sense of some of what the president has pledged, threatened and suggested so far, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing was on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss what we know about tariffs, how global central banks are meant to navigate this more uncertain new environment and whether the Fed is in for a particularly contentious relationship with the White House. Plus, the new president has already made a big splash in oil markets, including an Inauguration Day pledge to “drill baby, drill” and a call for Saudi Arabia to lower prices. David Oxley, Kieran Tompkins, Olivia Cross and Hamad Hussain from our Commodities and Climate team address the issues that Trump has raised around oil and explain why downside risks to prices have just grown. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Central Bank Hubhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/central-bank-hubRead: Strong dollar is a problem for tomorrowhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/strong-dollar-problem-tomorrowEvent: Fed, ECB and BoE – Unpacking the first rate decisions of 2025https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-fed-ecb-and-boe-unpacking-first-rate-decisions-2025Read: What to make of Trump's National Energy Emergency?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/commodities-focus/what-make-trumps-national-energy-emergencyRead: How low could oil prices go if Saudi open the oil taps?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/commodities-update/how-low-could-oil-prices-go-if-saudi-open-oil-taps

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing calls in from Singapore to The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about what's known and unknown about Donald Trump's policy agenda just days before he is sworn in again. He discusses the tone set by Trump's first inaugural address, what we've learned from recent confirmation hearings and the inflation impact of a gradual rise in tariffs. Neil also talks about why our China Activity Proxy is telling a different story from official Chinese GDP data and explains why the UK has so much potential in the AI revolution.Also on the show, fresh from his team being named most accurate forecaster of major global stock indices by LSEG Data & Analytics for a second straight year, Chief Markets Economist John Higgins talks about why we expect 2025 to be another strong year for US equities. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:CAP: Weaker fiscal support behind growth slowdownhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-activity-monitor/cap-weaker-fiscal-support-behind-growth-slowdownUS continues to lead the way on our AI indexhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/us-continues-lead-way-our-ai-indexUS Drop-In: Inauguration Day special – Knowns and unknowns around Trump's second termhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/us-drop-inauguration-day-special-knowns-and-unknowns-around-trumps-second-termWhy we expect the S&P 500 to thrive in 2025https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/equities-focus/why-we-expect-sp-500-thrive-2025

A grim week for bonds was capped by a stunningly hot US jobs report. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann joined the first episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics of the year to explain what these jobs numbers signal about the health of the US economy and how the Fed could respond. They also discuss the fall-out in global bond markets, including why gilts have been under particular pressure despite the Labour government's efforts to prove its fiscal bona fides with the investors.  Analysis and events referenced in this episode:UK Weekly: Gilt market is not in crisis, but it does cause problemshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-weekly/gilt-market-not-crisis-it-does-cause-problemsChina Weekly: More weakness in store for the renminbihttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-weekly/china-weekly-more-weakness-store-renminbiCapital Economics eventshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events

This week: Innovation Forum's Ian Welsh and Natasha Bodnar share some updates about the upcoming responsible sourcing and ethical trade forum, taking place in London on 19th-20th March. They talk about the developing conference agenda and the latest confirmed speakers. For full details on how to get involved, click here. Plus: a preview of Ian's conversation with Wayne Jordash, managing partner at Global Rights Compliance. They discuss how companies face challenges in demonstrating compliance with human rights legislation, requiring comprehensive and adaptable risk assessments to meet regulatory demands. The full interview will be in the Innovation Forum podcast on 10th January.

The final Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics of the year has Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing making sense of that December Federal Reserve meeting and explaining what the latest PCE data say about the inflation outlook and where rates are heading in 2025. He also addresses why hopes for a sweeping ‘Mar-a-Lago accord' (or 'Plaza Accord 2.0') that would tackle US-China currency imbalances are likely to be disappointed. Plus, a dramatic plunge in the value of Brazil's real shows how far investors have fallen out with Lula's spendthrift administration. In an exclusive clip from our client briefing on Brazil's crisis, William Jackson, Jason Tuvey and Jonas Goltermann discuss the real's fair value, the effectiveness of FX intervention and what the government needs to do to get investors back onside. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:The Fracturing of the Global Economyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/fracturing-global-economyData: Bank of England Caseometerhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/bank-england-caseometerEM Drop-In: Brazil's currency crisis – Economic and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/em-drop-brazils-currency-crisis-economic-and-market-implicationsData: EM Financial Risk Indicatorshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/em-financial-risk-indicators

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing outlines the three big policy quandaries facing three big DM central banks. He unpacks the ECB's December decision, previews the upcoming Fed and Bank of England meetings and talks about which of these institutions faces the greatest risks in 2025.Neil also talks about whether China's policy pivot will translate into meaningful efforts to support and rebalance the economy, discusses what events in Syria say about geopolitics and the macro narrative and highlights a key risk for the coming year. Plus, following our dive into the big macro themes for 2025, Chief Markets Economist John Higgins is on the show to talk about the financial markets outlook – including why we think a bubble in US equities will keep inflating over the year. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2025 policy outlookhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-fed-ecb-and-boe-december-meetings-and-2025-policy-outlookLatest quarterly Outlookshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/outlooksWeek-ahead Forecastshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/week-ahead-forecasts

This is a special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics all about the themes that will shape the global economy in 2025. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown stepped out of our client event in London on 4th December to talk to David Wilder about the 2025 growth story. They discussed how Donald Trump's policy pledges will – and won't – affect US and global macro variables in the coming year, whether creaking public debt profiles will stir up the bond vigilantes, the limits of geopolitics as a driver of the macro story and more. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Five for 25: The macro themes that will shape next yearhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/five-25-macro-themes-will-shape-next-yearDrop-In: The World in 2025 – The global macro and market outlookhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-world-2025-global-macro-and-market-outlook

It was déjà vu all over again this week after a social media post from Donald Trump rattled markets. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss how seriously we should treat the president-elect's online threat to impose sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. He also talks about whether moves in the bond market suggest that China is turning Japanese and warns of a distorted November US payrolls report.Plus, a lot of time is spent analysing which economies are going to lose out when Trump returns to the White House, but what about the potential winners? Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah explains how Indian manufacturing could get a boost in an intensified global trade war. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Event: The World in 2025https://www.capitaleconomics.com/world-2025-event-december-2024How to think about tariffshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-tariffsGlobal Drop-In: US tariffs – How they'll work, what they'll do and how the world will respondhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-us-tariffs-how-theyll-work-what-theyll-do-and-how-world-will-respondData: China Activity Proxyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/china-activity-proxyIs a bubble in India's stock market deflating?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/equities-focus/bubble-indias-stock-market-deflating

This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics is an exclusive extract from our online Drop-In briefing following Donald Trump's threat to impose massive tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. Was this a negotiating ploy from the president-elect? Who'll pay the cost of higher tariffs? How would targeted countries respond? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing, Vicky Redwood, our Senior Economic Adviser, and Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham answered these questions and more in our day-after briefing.Analysis and events referenced in this episode: How to think about tariffshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-tariffsCanada, China and Mexico in Trump's firing line​https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/canada-china-and-mexico-trumps-firing-lineDrop-In: US tariffs – How they'll work, what they'll do and how the world will respond https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-us-tariffs-how-theyll-work-what-theyll-do-and-how-world-will-respond

Discussion on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics attempts to avoid any mention of Donald Trump – and fails almost immediately. But Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing's point is that there is a lot going on in the world besides regime change in Washington. He talks to David Wilder about why inflation is worrying markets, why Chinese stimulus hopes were dashed, and what Nvidia's earnings say about AI's potential. Plus, despite escalation in the war in Ukraine, speculation is also building about an end to fighting when Donald Trump takes office next year. Senior EM Economist Liam Peach talks about what this could look like and its potential implications for the Ukrainian, Russian and broader European economies. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:London Event: The World in 2025https://www.capitaleconomics.com/world-2025-event-december-2024Is Nvidia a sign that the AI boost for US equities is over?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/capital-daily/nvidia-sign-ai-boost-us-equities-overTrump and the war in Ukrainehttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/emerging-europe-economics-update/trump-and-war-ukraineDrop-In: Trump, OPEC, China – What's driving oil prices in 2025?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-trump-opec-china-whats-driving-oil-prices-2025

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing hops off the plane from New York and hops onto the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to explain what Donald Trump's cabinet nominations signal about the macro policy outlook, how Europe and China could respond to tariffs and the economic implications of removing millions of migrant workers from the US economy.Plus, as the initial, post-election euphoria in US financial markets wears off, Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann discusses what lies ahead for equities, bonds and currencies. 

Ahead of the year's big political event, The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics includes an exclusive clip from our client briefing all about what to expect from the US election. Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams and the team tackle everything from Kamala Harris' fiscal plans to how the euro could react to which candidate the Chinese Communist Party would prefer to deal with. (Watch the full briefing here.)Plus, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory unpacks the market response to the UK Budget and explains how Rachel Reeves' fiscal plans could shape the UK's monetary policy outlook.Analysis and events referenced in this episodeRegister Now: Drop-In: US election aftermath – Trump vs Harris and the state of unionhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-us-election-aftermath-trump-vs-harris-and-state-unionKey Issues: US election 2024https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/us-election-2024Will the BoE start to cut interest rates quicker?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/boe-watch/will-boe-start-cut-interest-rates-quickerHow worrying is the surge in Gilt yields?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/bonds-equities/how-worrying-surge-gilt-yields

This week: Innovation Forum's Ellen Atiyah speaks with Andika Putraditama, director of the Rimba Collective at Lestari Capital, about how nature-based solutions can help deliver corporate sustainability commitments, ahead of a webinar on 17th October. They discuss the partnerships, challenges and opportunities driving nature-based solution models, and how corporates are linking commodity sourcing to ecosystem services and advancing sustainability efforts.   Plus: ahead of the Sustainable Packaging Innovation Forum USA in Philadelphia on 29th and 30th October, another chance to hear Ian Welsh talking about prospects for a Global Plastics Pact with Llorenç Milà i Canals, head of secretariat of the Life Cycle Initiative at the UN Environment Programme at the 2023 conference in Amsterdam.

The All Local Afternoon Update for Tuesday, September 10th 2024 

INTEL Roundtable w/ Johnson & McGovern - Weekly Briefing Wrap UpSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week: Aarohi Sharma, deputy director for regenerative agriculture at Natural Resources Defense Council, spoke with Innovation Forum's Ian Welsh on the need for policy reforms to address the root causes of agriculture's impact on climate change. Talking at the recent Innovation Forum in Minneapolis, they highlighted the COVER Act, which incentivises farmers to plant cover crops by reducing insurance premiums, and California's efforts to incorporate resilience and a holistic approach into its food system. Plus, hear the latest updates on upcoming events: Sustainable Commodities and Land Use in Amsterdam (23-24 October), Sustainable Packaging in Philadelphia (29-30 October), and Scope 3 Innovation in Washington DC (3-4 December).