Podcasts about secker

Programa conducido por Darío Lavia y Chucho Fernández. Ilustraciones: Gustaaf Wappers, Adolph Von Menzel, Thomas Moran, Giovanni Tuccari, Jan Frans Van Bloemen, Frederick Charles Winby, Andrew Wyeth. Acto I: "El estudiante de Praga" de Carlos Clarens por Darío Lavia 0:02:18 Acto II: "Conclusión'" de Jean Baudrillard por Darío Lavia 0:07:49 La risa, remedio infalible por Chucho Fernández y Gimena García 0:18:47 Acto III: "La noche de diciembre" de Alfred de Musset por Chucho Fernández 0:23:18 Fuentes de los textos: "Horror Movies: An Illustrated Survey" de Carlos Clarens, (Secker & Warburg Ltd., 1968) "La nuit de décembre" de Alfred de Musset, de "Les Nuits" (1852) Imdb https://www.imdb.com/title/tt35462913/ Web de Cineficción ⁠http://www.cinefania.com/cineficcion⁠/ Fan Page de Cineficción ⁠https://www.facebook.com/revista.cineficcion/

On the 226th episode of the GreatBase Tennis podcast Steve Smith and Andy Fitzell interview Dave Secker. Their guest is the Associate Head Coach of the North Carolina State women's tennis team. Dave, who has previously donated his time to support our efforts to inform the tennis public, addresses numerous issues pertaining to college tennis in the US. To make an understatement, the Englishmen is well-informed.

In this enlightening episode, I sit down with Grace Secker, a passionate psychotherapist and chronic pain coach specializing in the intricate connection between the mind and body. Grace shares her personal journey from experiencing chronic pain and trauma to discovering transformative healing methods that integrate emotional awareness with physical well-being. Listeners will gain valuable insights into how unresolved emotions can manifest as physical pain and learn practical tools to foster a healthier relationship with themselves. Grace's early inspiration to become a therapist stemmed from her own experiences with depression, anxiety, and trauma as a teenager. The disconnect between mental and physical health in traditional medical training often overlooks the mind-body connection. Chronic pain can be a manifestation of unresolved emotional trauma, often exacerbated by stressors in life. The concept of trauma includes both "big T" traumas (e.g., abuse, loss) and "little t" traumas (e.g., emotional neglect, bullying). Understanding one's "window of tolerance" is crucial for recognizing how individuals respond to stress and trauma. Pain reprocessing therapy focuses on retraining the brain to stop sending danger signals to the body, allowing for emotional healing. Somatic practices, including breathwork and mindfulness, help individuals reconnect with their bodies and emotions. Grace emphasizes the importance of building a better relationship with oneself to foster healing and emotional regulation. Story of a participant in Grace's program who overcame debilitating symptoms through the mind-body healing method. Explore your own emotional landscape and consider how unresolved feelings may be impacting their physical health. Connect with Grace Secker: On Instagram Free nervous system guide  Virtual appointment link Grace's Podcast: Heal with Grace   Thanks for leaving a rating and follow the show on Spotify: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/melisha-meredith (Click on the three dots to rate.) Thanks for leaving a rating/review on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/daily-wellness-podcast/id1651051841 (You'll have to be signed in and scroll to the bottom.) Connect with Melisha and the Daily Wellness Community On Instagram On Facebook Website Email us at: info@dailywellnesscommunity.com Some products I mention may be affiliate links, which means I may receive a small commission if you decide to make a purchase through one of my links. Our family greatly appreciates your support, it helps us keep creating the free resources we make for you all! DISCLAIMER: The content in the podcast and on this webpage is not intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. Always seek the advice of your doctor or qualified healthcare provider with any questions you may have. Never disregard professional medical advice or delay in seeking it because of something you have heard on the podcast or on my website

This week in Mum Club 101, we chat to Kerry Secker, infant sleep consultant and founder of Care It Out sleep consultancy service. As a mum to toddler herself, she's on a mission to support tired parents to get more sleep without having to use sleep training methods and her approach is honest and reassuring. Before founding Care It Out Kerry was an international nanny and has over 25 years of experience behind her, so we took this opportunity to put some of our most asked listener questions to her and pick her brains about some of the most challenging phases of toddlerhood. Care It Out®, Infant Sleep Consultant: https://www.careitout.com If you enjoy this episode, please make sure you leave a review! We would love to hear from you! You can email the Mum Club 101 inbox at ⁠mumclub101@gmail.com⁠ dm us or voice note us on instagram ⁠@mumclub101 

Grace Secker is founder & CEO of Elevate Therapy & Wellness, a private practice for therapy and coaching, and the creator of the Mind-Body Healing Method, is a holistic licensed psychotherapist, certified yoga therapist and nervous system coach for people who struggle with chronic pain, fatigue and disordered eating. She has more than ten years of experience in working with clients in a holistic approach helping clients go from bed ridden with pain, fatigue and food sensitivities to being able to exercise without pain, eat anything they want and have the energy in their life to thrive knowing they don't have to fear chronic conditions. After healing her own eating disorder, chronic pain and fatigue using the mind-body connection, Grace now specializes in helping people understand the connection between their minds and bodies so they can get back the life they love and get out of mental and physical patterns that keep them stuck. Key Topics: - Grace's story of overcoming pain, fatigue, and mental health issues - Why we need to understand the mind-body connection in order to heal - The hidden root causes of chronic pain and fatigue - What the nervous system is and what it does - How to strengthen the nervous system response to manage stress response - Somatic practices and why they're trending - When to choose a bottom-up or top-down approach to healing - How to learn to stop dissociating Learn more about Grace and work with her at https://www.elevatetherapywellness.com. Follow Grace on Instagram at @heal.with.grace Grab Erin's stress-busting nutrition guide here: https://mailchi.mp/5bf7e5c21f62/stress-busting-nutrition-guide

Grace Secker is founder & CEO of Elevate Therapy & Wellness, a private practice for therapy and coaching, and the creator of the Mind-Body Healing Method, is a holistic licensed psychotherapist, certified yoga therapist and nervous system coach for people who struggle with chronic pain, fatigue and disordered eating. She has more than ten years of experience in working with clients in a holistic approach helping clients go from bed ridden with pain, fatigue and food sensitivities to being able to exercise without pain, eat anything they want and have the energy in their life to thrive knowing they don't have to fear chronic conditions. After healing her own eating disorder, chronic pain and fatigue using the mind-body connection, Grace now specializes in helping people understand the connection between their minds and bodies so they can get back the life they love and get out of mental and physical patterns that keep them stuck. Key Topics: - Grace's story of overcoming pain, fatigue, and mental health issues - Why we need to understand the mind-body connection in order to heal - The hidden root causes of chronic pain and fatigue - What the nervous system is and what it does - How to strengthen the nervous system response to manage stress response - Somatic practices and why they're trending - When to choose a bottom-up or top-down approach to healing - How to learn to stop dissociating Learn more about Grace and work with her at https://www.elevatetherapywellness.com. Follow Grace on Instagram at @heal.with.grace Grab Erin's stress-busting nutrition guide here: https://mailchi.mp/5bf7e5c21f62/stress-busting-nutrition-guide

Tom Secker is a British based writer, researcher, author, podcaster and filmmaker who specialises in the security services, terrorism and declassified history. His book is Secrets, Spies and 7/7 and his main website is spyculture.com.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-opperman-report--1198501/support.

On today's podcast, Dom talks with the 2024 FMG Young Farmer of the Year George Dodson about winning the title while not 100% fit, the road to the final and what he plans to do next... He talks with Bryce McKenzie from Groundswell NZ about Team Ag meeting with Opposition MPs and its issue with Rabobank... He talks with 2024 Marlborough Young Viticulturist of the Year Anna Kelland about her recent win and her role in the viticulture world... And he talks with West Coaster Nick Secker about securing one of two roles as a brand ambassador for the award-winning Reefton Distilling Co. Tune in daily for the latest and greatest REX rural content on your favourite streaming platform, visit rexonline.co.nz and follow us on Instagram, Facebook and LinkedIn for more.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Send us a Text Message.In this episode, I welcome Grace Secker, as she shares her journey from battling chronic conditions to becoming a licensed psychotherapist, chronic pain and nervous system coach, certified yoga therapist, and Reiki energy healer. Grace discusses the hidden root causes of chronic pain and fatigue, emphasizing the importance of addressing the nervous system and brain interactions. She provides insights into her self-care practices, the significance of compassion and kindness towards oneself, and common mistakes people make in their health journeys. The episode highlights the comprehensive approach needed for effective healing, including physical, mental, emotional, and spiritual interventions.In this episode:Grace's Journey to HealingSelf-Care PracticesUnderstanding Chronic Pain and FatigueWorking with the Nervous SystemCommon Mistakes in Health JourneysRewiring the Brain for HealingConnect with Grace:Website:  https://www.elevatetherapywellness.comIG:  @heal.with.graceMind-Body Healing Method, A 4-month program to help people design their health protocol: https://www.elevatetherapywellness.com/mindbody-healing-method Top 3 Tips to Regulate Your Nervous System, Free Training:  https://healwithgrace.mykajabi.com/trainingMy resources:Deep Rest MeditationNourished For Resilience Workbook Book a free Exploratory CallFind me at www.nourishednervoussystem.comand @nourishednervoussytem on Instagram

Have you ever wondered if healing from chronic illnesses AND eating intuitively could co-exist? It might come as a surprise, but they actually can! In this conversation with our guest, we dig through the common misconceptions about healing & being healthy. Truth is, you can prioritize taking care of your health, chronic illness, and your relationship with food all at the same time – without the expense of the other.  Grace Secker, the founder of Elevate Therapy and Wellness, is a holistic licensed psychotherapist, certified yoga therapist, nervous system & chronic pain coach. Her Mind-Body Healing Method combines 10+ years of professional experience with decades of personal mental, physical, and spiritual healing to support people with chronic pain, fatigue, and disordered eating.  In this episode, we chat about:  What ‘chronic illness' encompasses  How you can do more than just manage symptoms  The problem with “food is medicine”  The role our nervous system plays in our health Overwhelm on a healing journey  How clean eating can actually make you more sick The all-systems approach to health & wellness Links:

Istanbul-based photojournalist Bradley Secker discusses his work on migration, LGBT+ asylum seekers in the Middle East and Europe, the difficulties of practicing journalism in Turkey and the broader state of photojournalism. Become a member to support Turkey Book Talk on Patreon or Substack. Members get a 35% discount on all Turkey/Ottoman History books published by IB Tauris/Bloomsbury, transcripts of every interview, transcripts of the whole archive, and links to articles related to each episode.

Tom Secker is a British based writer, researcher, author, podcaster and filmmaker who specialises in the security services, terrorism and declassified history. His book is Secrets, Spies and 7/7 and his main website is spyculture.com.8 years ago #:1993, #boiling, #bombing, #center, #ed, #frog, #opperman, #report, #secker, #tom, #tom secker, #trade, #world, #world trade center bombingThis show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/1198501/advertisement

Today I'm joined by infant sleep consultant, founder of care it out and nanny of 20 years, Kerry Secker. Navigating sleep with our kids can be challenging, it can also be confusing, and often parents are told that the only thing that'll work is to leave their babies and kids to cry themselves to sleep, and their child will magically sleep through the night. Kerry has had such a unique journey into parenthood. She was a nanny for 20 years, then began working with families to help them find gentle ways to navigate their little ones' sleep, and then a little later in life, became a parent. We unpick all of this in today's episode. So if you're struggling with your little ones' sleep, or if want to hear what life was like for Kerry as she transitioned into parenthood after 2 decades of looking after kids for other families. This episode is for you. Connect: YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/thedadvibes Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/the.dad.vibes/ TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@the.dad.vibes Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/thedadvibes Resources: Calmer Parenting Course (SAVE 40%) - https://bit.ly/TheCalmParent The Guide To Losing It...Less (SAVE 40%) - https://bit.ly/loseitless

On the 150th GreatBase Tennis Education (GBTE) podcast,  Steve Smith has a conversation with Dave Secker.The Englishman gives us an update on his team. To make an understatement, the Wolfpack have gained a tremendous amount of respect based on their rapid climb from obscurity to reaching the NCAA team final at the end of the 2023 season.Dave also shares thoughts on Diana Shnaider, who played for North Carolina State this past year. The nineteen-year-old Russian entered college as the number 3 junior in the world and, as of this writing, is ranked 88 among WTA professionals.As always, we hope to add golden nuggets to one's tennis treasure chest and strongly believe listening to Dave Secker is a sure way to do so.

Ruth Fulton Benedict was one of the first women to become really prominent in the field of anthropology. She had a huge impact, but she's often overshadowed by some of her students, including Zora Neale Hurston and Margaret Mead.  Research: Banner, Lois W. “Intertwined Lives: Margaret Mead, Ruth Benedict, and Their Circle.” New York. Alfred A. Knopf. 2003. Banner, Lois W. “Mannish Women, Passive Men, and Constitutional Types: Margaret Mead's Sex and Temperament in Three Primitive Societies as a Response to Ruth Benedict's Patterns of Culture.” Signs. Vol. 28, No. 3, Gender and Science: New Issues (Spring 2003). Via JSTOR. https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/345325 Benedict, Ruth, 1887-1948, and Gene Weltfish. The Races of Mankind. New York: Public Affairs Committee, 1943. Borovoy, Amy. “Ruth Benedict and the Study of Japanese Culture.” UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy. 8/26/2020. Via YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfZYIGltfsE Britannica, The Editors of Encyclopaedia. "Ruth Benedict". Encyclopedia Britannica, 13 Sep. 2022, https://www.britannica.com/biography/Ruth-Benedict. Accessed 17 May 2023. Burns, J. Conor. "Anthropology." History of Modern Science and Mathematics, edited by Brian S. Baigrie, Charles Scribner's Sons, 2002. Gale In Context: Science, link.gale.com/apps/doc/CV2640700006/GPS?u=mlin_n_melpub&sid=bookmark-GPS&xid=4a63896c. Accessed 22 May 2023. Kent, Pauline. “Japanese Perceptions of ‘The Chrysanthemum and the Sword.'” Dialectical Anthropology, June 1999, Vol. 24, No. 2 (June 1999). https://www.jstor.org/stable/29790600 Lie, John. “Ruth Benedict's Legacy of Shame: Orientalism and Occidentalism in the Study of Japan.” Asian Journal of Social Science , 2001, Vol. 29, No. 2 (2001). Via JSTOR. https://www.jstor.org/stable/23653936 Mead, Margaret and Ruth Benedict. “An Anthropologist At Work Writings Of Ruth Benedict.” Secker & Warburg. 1959. "Patterns of Culture." American Decades Primary Sources, edited by Cynthia Rose, vol. 4: 1930-1939, Gale, 2004, pp. 645-647. Gale In Context: U.S. History, link.gale.com/apps/doc/CX3490200798/GPS?u=mlin_n_melpub&sid=bookmark-GPS&xid=fa7f9002. Accessed 17 May 2023. "Ruth Fulton Benedict." Dictionary of American Biography, Charles Scribner's Sons, 1974. Gale In Context: U.S. History, link.gale.com/apps/doc/BT2310017919/GPS?u=mlin_n_melpub&sid=bookmark-GPS&xid=0181011f. Accessed 17 May 2023. "Ruth Fulton Benedict." Scientists: Their Lives and Works, UXL, 2006. Gale In Context: Science, link.gale.com/apps/doc/K2641500229/GPS?u=mlin_n_melpub&sid=bookmark-GPS&xid=4fba0976. Accessed 17 May 2023. Salamone, Frank A., 2018. “Life‑affirming versus Life‑denying Cultures : Ruth Benedict and Social Synergy”, in BEROSE International Encyclopaedia of the Histories of Anthropology, Paris. https://www.berose.fr/article1333.html?lang=en Schachter, Judith . "Ruth Benedict". In obo in Anthropology. 18 May. 2023. . Vassar Encyclopedia. “Ruth Benedict '1909.” 2009. https://vcencyclopedia.vassar.edu/distinguished-alumni/ruth-benedict/ Yong, Daniel. “Ruth Benedict: Strength in Disability.” University of Chicago. 12/13/2020. https://womanisrational.uchicago.edu/2020/12/13/ruth-benedict-strength-in-disability/ Young, Virginia Heyer. “Ruth Benedict: Beyond Relativity, Beyond Pattern.” Critical Studies in the History of Anthropology. Series editors Regna Darnell and Stephen O. Murray. University of Nebraska Press. 2005. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

To prepare for the 2023 NCAA Tennis Sweet 16, Cracked Racquets Editor-in-Chief Alex Gruskin speaks to one representative of every team still alive in the team event. On this episode, he speaks with NC State Women's Assistant Coach David Secker to discuss his team's 2023 season, reflect on the team's Sweet 16 matchup, and so much more!! Don't forget to give a 5 star review with your twitter/instagram handle for a chance to win some FREE CR gear!! This episode brought to you by:  Swing Vision SwingVision is the official ball tracking app of Tennis Australia, the UK's Lawn Tennis Association and the Intercollegiate Tennis Association. The startup's mission is to democratize the Grand Slam experience for tennis players of all levels. Using just a single smartphone, the app automatically tracks your shot trajectory, generates match highlights and provides line challenges, all in real-time on any court in the world. Take advantage of Cracked Racquets' exclusive partnership by using our promo code "cracked20" for a 14-day Pro Trial and a $20 discount. Don't miss out on this exclusive deal, available by clicking here! Tennis Point Discounted Tennis Apparel, Tennis Racquets, Tennis Shoes & Equipment from Nike, adidas, Babolat, Wilson & More! Visit their store today and use the code "CR15" at checkout to save 15% off Sale items. Some Exclusions (MAP Exceptions) apply and code will not work on those items. This code will add 1 FREE CAN of WILSON Balls to the cart at checkout.  Tourna MEGA TAC: It's the TACKIES GRIP EVER CREATED by far. You know Tourna Tennis for their world famous Tourna Grip, but did you know they also make the TACKIEST grip in the world? MEGA TAC is THE tackiest grip on the market. It starts tacky and stays tacky, longer than any other grip on the market as well. If you like Tacky Grips, you have to try Mega Tac.   You can have anyone reach out to sales@uniquesports.com and mention Cracked Racquets to get a FREE sample Lucky Racket The hub for tennis fans, based out of Dayton, OH. Our mission is to make everyone smile when they see our products on and off the tennis courts! Get 15% OFF by using our promo code "Cracked15" at luckyracquet.com. Tennis Channel Podcast Network Visit https://www.tennis.com/pro-game/podcasts/ to stay current on the latest tennis news and trends and enjoy in-depth analysis and dynamic debates. Find Cracked Racquets Website: https://www.crackedracquets.com Instagram: https://instagram.com/crackedracquets Twitter: https://twitter.com/crackedracquets Facebook: https://Facebook.com/crackedracquets YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/crackedracquets Email Newsletter: https://crackedracquets.substack.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The banking sector appears stronger in Europe than it does in the U.S., but some other European sectors may be at risk of lower profitability.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Graham Secker, Head of Morgan Stanley's European Equity Strategy Team. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about our latest thoughts on European equities. It's Thursday, May the 4th at 3 p.m. in London. Over the last couple of months, we have seen global technology stocks significantly outperform global financial stocks, aided by lower bond yields and concerns around the health of the U.S. regional banking sector. Historically, when we have seen tech outperform financials in the past, it has usually been accompanied by material underperformance from European equities. However, this time the region has proved much more resilient. Part of this reflects the benefits of lower valuation and lower investor positioning. However, we also see two broader macro supports for Europe just here. First, we see less downside risk to the European economy than that of the U.S., where many of the traditional economic leading indicators are down at recessionary levels. In contrast, similar metrics for Europe, such as consumer confidence and purchasing managers indices, have actually been rising recently. In addition, a healthier and more resilient banking sector over here in Europe suggests there is potentially less risk of a credit crunch developing here than we see in the U.S.. Second, we think Europe is also seen as an alternative way to get exposure to an economic recovery in China, given that the region has stronger economic ties and greater stock market exposure than most of its developed market peers. While this is not necessarily manifesting itself in overall aggregate inflows into European equity funds at this time, we can clearly see the theme benefiting certain sectors, such as luxury goods, which has arguably become one of the most popular ways to express a positive view on China globally. Notwithstanding these relative advantages, we do expect some near-term weakness in European stocks over the next quarter, with negative risks from the U.S. potentially outweighing positive risks from China and Asia. While first quarter results season has started strongly, we believe earnings disappointment will gradually build as we move through 2023 and our own forecasts remain close to 10% below consensus. Catalysts for this disappointment include slower economic growth, from the second quarter onwards, continued falls in profit margins and building FX headwinds given a strengthening euro. Our negative view on the outlook for corporate profitability often prompts the question as to which companies are over-earning and hence potentially most at risk from any mean reversion. To help answer this question, we ranked European sectors across five different profitability metrics where we compared their current levels to their ten year history. This analysis suggests that the European sectors who are currently over-earning, and hence most at risk of future disappointment include transport, semiconductors, construction materials, energy and autos. In contrast, sectors where profitability does not look particularly elevated at this time include retailing, diversified financials, media, chemicals, real estate and software. More broadly, we believe this analysis supports our cautious view on cyclical stocks within Europe just here, particularly for the likes of energy and autos, where profits are already falling year on year and where we see more downgrades ahead. Instead, we maintain a preference for stocks with higher quality and growth characteristics. We think these should be relative outperformers against the backdrop of economic weakness, falling bond yields and better relative earnings trends. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

When people rise from humble backgrounds to the top of their professions, they truly have worked hard to get there and this weeks guest is no exception.  Master Trader and self-made multimillionaire Greg Secker joins me to talk about what it REALLY takes to play the financial game to your advantage and the main techniques he's used to create life-changing, generational wealth. From humble beginnings to building schools in Africa with Richard Branson, it's safe to say Greg has had a colourful life. Nothing is off limits in this interview as we talk about how wild it was to be a trader in the nineties, his friendship with "The Wolf Of Wall Street" himself - Jordan Belfort - and how Greg's advice has helped him to become a world-class speaker. From enterprising youngster to world-renowned expert. Greg's story is truly inspirational! KEY TAKEAWAYS There's always a strategy to get what you want in life. If you want to get rich, there are tried and tested methods and people out there who can show you the way. Nothing is beyond your reach. You can't expect overnight success in one go. Success comes from making many smaller decisions and incrementally building your way to the bigger wins. If you're looking for handouts in life, then your ethic is all wrong. Instead, look for ways to grow your own wealth independently, and perpetually, and teach the next generation the importance of doing so. Celebrating your wins is all very well, but too much and you will train your emotions to be riding high when you find a win, and devastated when you face a loss. BEST MOMENTS  'I'm an entrepreneur - a maverick - I'm a risk taker' 'Success isn't getting one thing right. It's getting lots of little things right' 'There is a strategy to everything in life' 'When emotions are on fire, what they do is distort the plan'  VALUABLE RESOURCES On A Mission - https://omny.fm/shows/on-a-mission   Greg Secker - http://www.gregsecker.com/ Greg Secker Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/greg.secker/  Greg Secker Twitter - https://twitter.com/gregsecker  Learn To Trade - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvXWOQLFNKYmw7olWeiU7Iw  The Ultimate Forex Starter 3hr ONLINE Workshop - https://lifestyletraderevent.com/events1634895218859?utm_source=EU-YT-LTE-PODCST-LT-0000&utm_campaign=INT  Athletic Greens - http://athleticgreens.com/onamission  ABOUT THE HOST Not so long ago, life was barely recognisable for Ellie McKay, raising three children under five, battling post-natal depression, facing redundancy and walking into the job centre to claim benefits with a double pram, no confidence, and wracked with insecurities. Fast forward to today, and life looks very different. Ellie committed to turning her life around for herself and her family. Following this commitment, she got to work and has now built multiple successful companies, as well as having created a multimillion-pound property portfolio from a standing start. Ellie is now on a mission to make a positive impact and add value to others through her podcast which has attracted phenomenal guests worldwide. The show is specifically to help those trying to reach their full potential through its inspirational and motivational content, as well as challenging conventional wisdom to discuss all the “hot topics” in a relentless pursuit of the truth. CONTACT METHODS: Website: http://www.elliemckay.com LinkedIn: Linkedin.com/in/ellie-mckay/ Facebook: Facebook.com/ellie.mckay.3150 Instagram: https://instagram.com/ellie_mckay_official?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y= OAM Instagram: https://instagram.com/onamissionshow?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y= YouTube: https://youtube.com/@onamissionpodcastThis show was brought to you by Progressive Media

Amid uncertainty in the global banking sector, are European equities a safe haven for investors to weather the storm?----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Graham Secker, Head of Morgan Stanley's European Equity Strategy Team. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the implications on European equities from the increased uncertainty surrounding the global banking sector. It's Tuesday, March 28th at 3 p.m. in London. After the turbulence of mid-March, a degree of calm has descended over markets recently, which has lifted European equities back to within 3% of their prior high and pushed equity volatility down to more normal levels. In effect, we think investors are now in 'wait and see' mode as they try to assess the forthcoming consequences and investment implications of recent events within the global banking sector. Our recent discussions with investors suggests a potential lack of willingness to get too bearish at this time, with some still hopeful the markets can navigate a path of modestly weaker growth, with lower inflation and less hawkish central banks. For us, we view this outcome as a possibility rather than a probability and reflective of the fact that investors have been positively surprised by the general resilience of economies and equity markets to date. However, this viewpoint ignores the fact that something has changed in the overall macro environment. First, yield curves are starting to steepen from very inverted levels, a backdrop that has traditionally been negative for risk markets as it reflects lower interest rate expectations due to rising recession risk. And second, we now have clear evidence, we think, that tighter monetary policy is beginning to bite. Over the coming weeks, we may see anecdotal stories emerge of problems around credit availability, followed thereafter by weaker economic data and ultimately lower earnings estimates. We also suspect that more financial problems or accidents will emerge over the coming months as a result of the combination of higher interest rates and lower credit availability. These issues may not necessarily manifest themselves in the mainstream European banking sector this time, however asset markets will still be vulnerable if risks emerge from other areas such as U.S. banks, commercial real estate or other financial entities. As a result of this increased uncertainty, we have taken a more cautious view on European equities in the near-term and forecast the region's prior outperformance of U.S. stocks to pause for a while. Within the European market, we see a trickier outlook for banks, given crowded positioning and less upside risk to earnings estimates than previously thought. However, the area of greatest caution for us is cyclicals, with the group most exposed to rising recession risk and weaker equity markets, and we are particularly cautious on those sectors most sensitive to credit dynamics such as autos. On the more positive side, we continue to like longer duration sectors such as luxury goods and technology, and believe they will continue to act as safe havens while market uncertainty remains high. In addition, we think the telecom sector offers an attractive mix of low valuation, healthy earnings resilience and the potential for more corporate activity and increased policy support from regulators going forward. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

While the causes of the European equity rally have become more clear over time, so have the caveats that warrant caution over optimism for cyclical stocks.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Graham Secker, Head of Morgan Stanley's European Equity Strategy Team. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the deflating safety cushion for European equities. It's Tuesday, February the 21st at 3 p.m. in London. With the benefit of hindsight, it's relatively easy to justify the European equity rally since the start of October, given that we've seen an improvement in the macro news flow against a backdrop of low valuation and depressed investor sentiment and positioning. While the macro outlook could continue to improve from here, we think the safety cushion that low valuation and depressed sentiment had previously provided has deflated considerably as investors have been drawn back into the market by rising price momentum. On valuation, the MSCI Europe Index still looks quite inexpensive on a next 12 month forward PE of 13, however the same ratio for Europe's median stock has risen to 16, which is at the upper end of its historic range. Admittedly, a less padded safety cushion is not necessarily a problem if the fundamental economic and earnings trends continue to improve. However, there is now considerably less margin for any disappointment going forward. This rebound in European equities has been led primarily by cyclical sectors who have outperformed their defensive peers by nearly 20% over the last six months. Historically, this pace of outperformance has tended to be a good sign, suggesting that we had started a new economic cycle with further upside for cyclical stocks ahead. However, while this sounds encouraging, we see three caveats that warrant caution rather than optimism at this point. First, we have seen no deterioration in cyclicals' profitability yet, and the lack of any downturn now makes it harder to envisage an EPS upturn required to drive share prices higher going forward. Second, we get a very different message from the yield curve, which has consistently proved to be one of the best economic leading indicators over many cycles. Today's inverted yield curve is usually followed by a period of cyclical underperformance and not outperformance. And thirdly, cyclicals. Valuations look elevated, with the group trading in a similar price to book value as defensives. When this has happened previously, it usually signals cyclicals' underperformance ahead. Given our cautious view on cyclicals, we prefer small and mid-cap stocks as a way to gain exposure to a European recovery. Having underperformed both large caps and cyclicals significantly over the last year, relative valuations for smaller stocks looks much more appealing, and relative performance looks like it is breaking out of its prior downtrend. In addition, we see two specific macro catalysts that should help smaller stocks in 2023, namely falling inflation and a rising euro. Historically, both these trends have tended to favor smaller companies over larger companies, and we expect the same to happen this year. At the country level we think the case for small and mid-cap stocks looks most compelling in Germany, where the relative index, the MDAX, has significantly lagged its larger equivalent, the DAX, such that relative valuations are close to a record low. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

European equities have been outperforming U.S. stocks. What's driving the rally, and will it continue?----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Graham Sacker, Head of Morgan Stanley's European Equity Strategy Team. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the recent outperformance of European equities and whether this could be the start of a longer upturn. It's Thursday, January the 26th at 4 p.m. in London. After a tricky period through last summer, the fourth quarter of 2022 saw European equities enjoy their best period of outperformance over U.S. stocks in over 30 years. Such was the size of this rally that MSCI Europe ended last year as the best performing region globally in dollar terms for the first time since 2000. In addition, the relative performance of Europe versus U.S. stocks has recently broken above its hundred week moving average for the first time since the global financial crisis. We do not think this latter event necessarily signals the start of a multi-year period of European outperformance going forward, however we do think it marks the end of Europe's structural underperformance that started in 2008. When we analyze the drivers behind Europe's recent rally, we can identify four main catalysts. Firstly, the economic news flow is holding up better in Europe than the U.S., with traditional leading indicators such as the purchasing managers surveys stabilizing in Europe over the last few months, but they continue to deteriorate in the U.S. Secondly, European gas prices continue to fall. After hitting nearly $300 last August, the price of gas is now down into the $60's and our commodity strategist Martin Rats, forecasts it falling further to around $20 later this year. Thirdly, Europe is more geared to China than the U.S., both economically and also in terms of corporate profits. For example, we calculate that European companies generate around 8% of their sales from China, versus just 4% for U.S. corporates. And then lastly, companies in Europe have enjoyed better earnings revisions trends than their peers in the U.S., and that does tend to correlate quite nicely with relative price performance too. The one factor that has not contributed to Europe's outperformance is fund flows, with EPFR data suggesting that European mutual fund and ETF flows were negative for each of the last 46 weeks of 2022. A consistency and duration of outflows we haven't seen in 20 years, a period that includes both the global financial crisis and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. While the pace of recent European equity outperformance versus the U.S. is now tactically looking a bit stretched, improving investor sentiment towards China and still low investor positioning to Europe should continue to provide support. In addition, European equities remain very inexpensive versus their U.S. peers across a wide variety of metrics. For example, Europe trades at a 29% discount to the U.S. on a next 12 month price to earnings ratio of less than 13 versus over 17 for the S&P. European company attitudes to buybacks have also started to change over the last few years, such that we saw a record $220 billion of net buyback activity in 2022, nearly double the previous high from 2019. At 1.7%. Europe's net buyback yield does still remain below the U.S. at around 2.6%. However, when we combine dividends and net buybacks together, we find that Europe now offers a higher total yield than the U.S. for the first time in over 30 years. For those investors who are looking to add more Europe exposure to their portfolios, first we are positive on luxury goods and semis. Two sectors in Europe that should be beneficiaries of improving sentiment towards China, and our U.S. strategists forecast that U.S. Treasury yields are likely to move down towards 3%. A move lower in yields should favor the longer duration growth stocks, of which luxury and semis are two high profile ones in Europe. Secondly, we continue to like European banks, given a backdrop of attractive valuations, high cash returns and superior earnings revisions. Third, we prefer smaller mid-caps over large caps given that the former traditionally outperform post a peak in inflation and in periods of euro currency strength. Our FX strategists expect euro dollar to rise further to 115 later this year. The bottom line for us is that we think there is a good chance that the recent outperformance of Europe versus U.S. equities can continue as we move through the first half of 2023. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

H.G. Wells - The New World Order - Chapter 12 - World Order in Being The New World Order is a non-fiction book written by H.G. Wells and was published by Secker & Warburg in January 1940. In The New World Order, Wells proposed a framework of international functionalism that could guide the world towards achieving world peace.[1] To achieve these ends, Wells asserted that a socialist and scientifically planned world government would need to be formed to defend human rights.[2] Wells's motivation for writing The New World Order was based upon the outbreak of World War II.[3] Wells was concerned that the Allies had no clear statement of aims for fighting in the war and that this would lead to the continuation of the pre-existing balance of power.[4] In The New World Order, Wells writes that without a revolution in international affairs and the establishment of human rights, then further destructive wars were inevitable.[5] The New World Order received praise for its imagination but was also criticised for its lack of technical detail and emphasis on collectivisation. Wells published in The New World Order his first version of a human rights declaration, which was a precursor to his work on the Sankey Declaration of the Rights of Man (1940).[5] In 1947, both declarations became used as advisory works by the United Nations Commission on Human Rights for drafting the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948).[6] Audio taken from: youtu.be/fQlZGNLqQwM

H.G. Wells - The New World Order - Chapter 11 - International Politics The New World Order is a non-fiction book written by H.G. Wells and was published by Secker & Warburg in January 1940. In The New World Order, Wells proposed a framework of international functionalism that could guide the world towards achieving world peace.[1] To achieve these ends, Wells asserted that a socialist and scientifically planned world government would need to be formed to defend human rights.[2] Wells's motivation for writing The New World Order was based upon the outbreak of World War II.[3] Wells was concerned that the Allies had no clear statement of aims for fighting in the war and that this would lead to the continuation of the pre-existing balance of power.[4] In The New World Order, Wells writes that without a revolution in international affairs and the establishment of human rights, then further destructive wars were inevitable.[5] The New World Order received praise for its imagination but was also criticised for its lack of technical detail and emphasis on collectivisation. Wells published in The New World Order his first version of a human rights declaration, which was a precursor to his work on the Sankey Declaration of the Rights of Man (1940).[5] In 1947, both declarations became used as advisory works by the United Nations Commission on Human Rights for drafting the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948).[6] Audio taken from: youtu.be/fQlZGNLqQwM

H.G. Wells - The New World Order - Chapter 10 - Declaration of the Rights of Man The New World Order is a non-fiction book written by H.G. Wells and was published by Secker & Warburg in January 1940. In The New World Order, Wells proposed a framework of international functionalism that could guide the world towards achieving world peace.[1] To achieve these ends, Wells asserted that a socialist and scientifically planned world government would need to be formed to defend human rights.[2] Wells's motivation for writing The New World Order was based upon the outbreak of World War II.[3] Wells was concerned that the Allies had no clear statement of aims for fighting in the war and that this would lead to the continuation of the pre-existing balance of power.[4] In The New World Order, Wells writes that without a revolution in international affairs and the establishment of human rights, then further destructive wars were inevitable.[5] The New World Order received praise for its imagination but was also criticised for its lack of technical detail and emphasis on collectivisation. Wells published in The New World Order his first version of a human rights declaration, which was a precursor to his work on the Sankey Declaration of the Rights of Man (1940).[5] In 1947, both declarations became used as advisory works by the United Nations Commission on Human Rights for drafting the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948).[6] Audio taken from: youtu.be/fQlZGNLqQwM

H.G. Wells - The New World Order - Chapter 9 - Politics for the Sane Man The New World Order is a non-fiction book written by H.G. Wells and was published by Secker & Warburg in January 1940. In The New World Order, Wells proposed a framework of international functionalism that could guide the world towards achieving world peace.[1] To achieve these ends, Wells asserted that a socialist and scientifically planned world government would need to be formed to defend human rights.[2] Wells's motivation for writing The New World Order was based upon the outbreak of World War II.[3] Wells was concerned that the Allies had no clear statement of aims for fighting in the war and that this would lead to the continuation of the pre-existing balance of power.[4] In The New World Order, Wells writes that without a revolution in international affairs and the establishment of human rights, then further destructive wars were inevitable.[5] The New World Order received praise for its imagination but was also criticised for its lack of technical detail and emphasis on collectivisation. Wells published in The New World Order his first version of a human rights declaration, which was a precursor to his work on the Sankey Declaration of the Rights of Man (1940).[5] In 1947, both declarations became used as advisory works by the United Nations Commission on Human Rights for drafting the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948).[6] Audio taken from: youtu.be/fQlZGNLqQwM

H.G. Wells - The New World Order - Chapter 3 - Disruptive Forces The New World Order is a non-fiction book written by H.G. Wells and was published by Secker & Warburg in January 1940. In The New World Order, Wells proposed a framework of international functionalism that could guide the world towards achieving world peace.[1] To achieve these ends, Wells asserted that a socialist and scientifically planned world government would need to be formed to defend human rights.[2] Wells's motivation for writing The New World Order was based upon the outbreak of World War II.[3] Wells was concerned that the Allies had no clear statement of aims for fighting in the war and that this would lead to the continuation of the pre-existing balance of power.[4] In The New World Order, Wells writes that without a revolution in international affairs and the establishment of human rights, then further destructive wars were inevitable.[5] The New World Order received praise for its imagination but was also criticised for its lack of technical detail and emphasis on collectivisation. Wells published in The New World Order his first version of a human rights declaration, which was a precursor to his work on the Sankey Declaration of the Rights of Man (1940).[5] In 1947, both declarations became used as advisory works by the United Nations Commission on Human Rights for drafting the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948).[6] Audio taken from: https://youtu.be/fQlZGNLqQwM

H.G. Wells - The New World Order - Chapter 4 - Class War The New World Order is a non-fiction book written by H.G. Wells and was published by Secker & Warburg in January 1940. In The New World Order, Wells proposed a framework of international functionalism that could guide the world towards achieving world peace.[1] To achieve these ends, Wells asserted that a socialist and scientifically planned world government would need to be formed to defend human rights.[2] Wells's motivation for writing The New World Order was based upon the outbreak of World War II.[3] Wells was concerned that the Allies had no clear statement of aims for fighting in the war and that this would lead to the continuation of the pre-existing balance of power.[4] In The New World Order, Wells writes that without a revolution in international affairs and the establishment of human rights, then further destructive wars were inevitable.[5] The New World Order received praise for its imagination but was also criticised for its lack of technical detail and emphasis on collectivisation. Wells published in The New World Order his first version of a human rights declaration, which was a precursor to his work on the Sankey Declaration of the Rights of Man (1940).[5] In 1947, both declarations became used as advisory works by the United Nations Commission on Human Rights for drafting the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948).[6] Audio taken from: https://youtu.be/fQlZGNLqQwM

H.G. Wells - The New World Order - Chapter 5 - Unsated Youth The New World Order is a non-fiction book written by H.G. Wells and was published by Secker & Warburg in January 1940. In The New World Order, Wells proposed a framework of international functionalism that could guide the world towards achieving world peace.[1] To achieve these ends, Wells asserted that a socialist and scientifically planned world government would need to be formed to defend human rights.[2] Wells's motivation for writing The New World Order was based upon the outbreak of World War II.[3] Wells was concerned that the Allies had no clear statement of aims for fighting in the war and that this would lead to the continuation of the pre-existing balance of power.[4] In The New World Order, Wells writes that without a revolution in international affairs and the establishment of human rights, then further destructive wars were inevitable.[5] The New World Order received praise for its imagination but was also criticised for its lack of technical detail and emphasis on collectivisation. Wells published in The New World Order his first version of a human rights declaration, which was a precursor to his work on the Sankey Declaration of the Rights of Man (1940).[5] In 1947, both declarations became used as advisory works by the United Nations Commission on Human Rights for drafting the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948).[6] Audio taken from: https://youtu.be/fQlZGNLqQwM

H.G. Wells - The New World Order - Chapter 6 - Socialism Unavoidable The New World Order is a non-fiction book written by H.G. Wells and was published by Secker & Warburg in January 1940. In The New World Order, Wells proposed a framework of international functionalism that could guide the world towards achieving world peace.[1] To achieve these ends, Wells asserted that a socialist and scientifically planned world government would need to be formed to defend human rights.[2] Wells's motivation for writing The New World Order was based upon the outbreak of World War II.[3] Wells was concerned that the Allies had no clear statement of aims for fighting in the war and that this would lead to the continuation of the pre-existing balance of power.[4] In The New World Order, Wells writes that without a revolution in international affairs and the establishment of human rights, then further destructive wars were inevitable.[5] The New World Order received praise for its imagination but was also criticised for its lack of technical detail and emphasis on collectivisation. Wells published in The New World Order his first version of a human rights declaration, which was a precursor to his work on the Sankey Declaration of the Rights of Man (1940).[5] In 1947, both declarations became used as advisory works by the United Nations Commission on Human Rights for drafting the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948).[6] Audio taken from: https://youtu.be/fQlZGNLqQwM

H.G. Wells - The New World Order - Chapter 3 - Disruptive Forces The New World Order is a non-fiction book written by H.G. Wells and was published by Secker & Warburg in January 1940. In The New World Order, Wells proposed a framework of international functionalism that could guide the world towards achieving world peace.[1] To achieve these ends, Wells asserted that a socialist and scientifically planned world government would need to be formed to defend human rights.[2] Wells's motivation for writing The New World Order was based upon the outbreak of World War II.[3] Wells was concerned that the Allies had no clear statement of aims for fighting in the war and that this would lead to the continuation of the pre-existing balance of power.[4] In The New World Order, Wells writes that without a revolution in international affairs and the establishment of human rights, then further destructive wars were inevitable.[5] The New World Order received praise for its imagination but was also criticised for its lack of technical detail and emphasis on collectivisation. Wells published in The New World Order his first version of a human rights declaration, which was a precursor to his work on the Sankey Declaration of the Rights of Man (1940).[5] In 1947, both declarations became used as advisory works by the United Nations Commission on Human Rights for drafting the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948).[6] Audio taken from: https://youtu.be/fQlZGNLqQwM

H.G. Wells - The New World Order - Chapter 3 - Disruptive Forces The New World Order is a non-fiction book written by H.G. Wells and was published by Secker & Warburg in January 1940. In The New World Order, Wells proposed a framework of international functionalism that could guide the world towards achieving world peace.[1] To achieve these ends, Wells asserted that a socialist and scientifically planned world government would need to be formed to defend human rights.[2] Wells's motivation for writing The New World Order was based upon the outbreak of World War II.[3] Wells was concerned that the Allies had no clear statement of aims for fighting in the war and that this would lead to the continuation of the pre-existing balance of power.[4] In The New World Order, Wells writes that without a revolution in international affairs and the establishment of human rights, then further destructive wars were inevitable.[5] The New World Order received praise for its imagination but was also criticised for its lack of technical detail and emphasis on collectivisation. Wells published in The New World Order his first version of a human rights declaration, which was a precursor to his work on the Sankey Declaration of the Rights of Man (1940).[5] In 1947, both declarations became used as advisory works by the United Nations Commission on Human Rights for drafting the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948).[6] Audio taken from: https://youtu.be/fQlZGNLqQwM

H.G. Wells - The New World Order - Chapter 2 - Open Conference The New World Order is a non-fiction book written by H.G. Wells and was published by Secker & Warburg in January 1940. In The New World Order, Wells proposed a framework of international functionalism that could guide the world towards achieving world peace.[1] To achieve these ends, Wells asserted that a socialist and scientifically planned world government would need to be formed to defend human rights.[2] Wells's motivation for writing The New World Order was based upon the outbreak of World War II.[3] Wells was concerned that the Allies had no clear statement of aims for fighting in the war and that this would lead to the continuation of the pre-existing balance of power.[4] In The New World Order, Wells writes that without a revolution in international affairs and the establishment of human rights, then further destructive wars were inevitable.[5] The New World Order received praise for its imagination but was also criticised for its lack of technical detail and emphasis on collectivisation. Wells published in The New World Order his first version of a human rights declaration, which was a precursor to his work on the Sankey Declaration of the Rights of Man (1940).[5] In 1947, both declarations became used as advisory works by the United Nations Commission on Human Rights for drafting the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948).[6] Audio taken from: https://youtu.be/fQlZGNLqQwM

H.G. Wells - The New World Order - Chapter 4 - Class War The New World Order is a non-fiction book written by H.G. Wells and was published by Secker & Warburg in January 1940. In The New World Order, Wells proposed a framework of international functionalism that could guide the world towards achieving world peace.[1] To achieve these ends, Wells asserted that a socialist and scientifically planned world government would need to be formed to defend human rights.[2] Wells's motivation for writing The New World Order was based upon the outbreak of World War II.[3] Wells was concerned that the Allies had no clear statement of aims for fighting in the war and that this would lead to the continuation of the pre-existing balance of power.[4] In The New World Order, Wells writes that without a revolution in international affairs and the establishment of human rights, then further destructive wars were inevitable.[5] The New World Order received praise for its imagination but was also criticised for its lack of technical detail and emphasis on collectivisation. Wells published in The New World Order his first version of a human rights declaration, which was a precursor to his work on the Sankey Declaration of the Rights of Man (1940).[5] In 1947, both declarations became used as advisory works by the United Nations Commission on Human Rights for drafting the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948).[6] Audio taken from: https://youtu.be/fQlZGNLqQwM

H.G. Wells - The New World Order - Chapter 1 - The End of an Age The New World Order is a non-fiction book written by H.G. Wells and was published by Secker & Warburg in January 1940. In The New World Order, Wells proposed a framework of international functionalism that could guide the world towards achieving world peace.[1] To achieve these ends, Wells asserted that a socialist and scientifically planned world government would need to be formed to defend human rights.[2] Wells's motivation for writing The New World Order was based upon the outbreak of World War II.[3] Wells was concerned that the Allies had no clear statement of aims for fighting in the war and that this would lead to the continuation of the pre-existing balance of power.[4] In The New World Order, Wells writes that without a revolution in international affairs and the establishment of human rights, then further destructive wars were inevitable.[5] The New World Order received praise for its imagination but was also criticised for its lack of technical detail and emphasis on collectivisation. Wells published in The New World Order his first version of a human rights declaration, which was a precursor to his work on the Sankey Declaration of the Rights of Man (1940).[5] In 1947, both declarations became used as advisory works by the United Nations Commission on Human Rights for drafting the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948).[6] Audio taken from: https://youtu.be/fQlZGNLqQwM

A collection of quotes from 1984 by George Orwell with lofi hip hop. Subscribe for more Chillbooks - audiobooks with background music, get the knowledge while you chill, study or vibe!

While European earnings have been remarkably resilient this year, and consensus estimates for earnings and corporate margins remain high, there may be reason to believe there's further yet to fall. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Graham Secker, Head of Morgan Stanley's European Equity Strategy Team. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the outlook for European earnings for the upcoming third quarter reporting season and beyond. It's Thursday, October the 20th, at 2 p.m. in London. Having been cautious on European equities for much of this year, we have recently started to flag the potential for more two-way price action in the near-term, reflecting a backdrop of low investor positioning, coupled with the potential for an inflection in U.S. inflation and interest rates over the next few months. To be clear, we haven't seen either of these two events occur yet, however we are conscious that each week that passes ultimately takes us closer to just such an outcome. Given that high inflation and rising interest rates have been the key drivers pushing equity valuations lower this year, any sign that these two metrics are peaking out would suggest that we are approaching a potential floor for equity PE ratios. However, while this is good news to a degree, history suggests that we need to be closer to a bottom in the economic and earnings cycle before equity markets put in their final price low. So far this year, European earnings have stood out for their remarkable resilience, with the region enjoying double digit upgrades on the back of currency weakness and a doubling of profitability for the energy sector. Looking into the third quarter reporting season, we expect this resilience to persist for a bit longer yet. Currency effects are arguably even more supportive this quarter than last, and the global and domestic economies have yet to show a more material slowdown that would be associated with recessionary conditions. Our own third quarter preview survey also points to a solid quarter ahead, with Morgan Stanley analysts expecting 50% of sectors to beat consensus expectations this quarter versus just 13% that could miss. Longer term, however, this same survey paints a more gloomy picture on the profit outlook, with our analysts saying downside risks to 2023 consensus forecasts across 70% of European sectors and upside risks in just 3; banks, insurance and utilities. In the history of this survey, we have never seen expectations this low before, nor such a divergence between the short term and longer term outlooks. From our own strategy perspective, we remain cautious on European earnings and note that most, if not all of our models are predicting a meaningful drop in profits next year. Specifically, consensus earnings look very optimistic in the context of Morgan Stanley GDP forecasts, current commodity prices, dividend futures and the latest readings from the economic indicators we look at, such as the purchasing managers indices. In addition to a likely top line slowdown associated with an economic recession, we see significant risks around corporate margins, too. Over the last 12 to 18 months, inflation has positively contributed to company profitability, as strong pricing power has allowed rising input costs to be passed on to customers. However, as demand weakens, this pricing power should wane, leaving companies squeezed between rising input costs and slowing output prices. In this vein, our own margin lead indicator suggests that next year could see the largest fall in European margins since the global financial crisis. However, consensus estimates assume that 16 out of 20 European sectors will actually see their margins expand next year. Our concern around overly optimistic earnings and margin assumptions next year is shared by many investors we speak to. However, this doesn't necessarily mean that all of the bad news is already in the price. Analyzing prior profit cycles suggests that equity markets tend to bottom 1 to 2 months before earnings revisions trough, and that it takes about 7 to 8 months for provisions to reach their final low. If history repeats itself in this cycle, this would point to a final equity low sometime in the first quarter of 2023, even if price to earnings ratios bottom later this year. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Even as the European equity market contends with inflation, a slowing economy and a climate of decreased earnings, there are positives to be found if you know where to look.-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Graham Secker, Head of Morgan Stanley's European Equity Strategy Team. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the outlook for European equity markets for the remainder of this year. It's Monday, September 12th, at 2 p.m. in London. After a brief rally in European equities earlier in the summer, reality has reasserted itself over the last month with markets unable to escape a tricky macro backdrop characterized by central banks speeding up rate hikes into what is a deepening economic slowdown. In the last couple of weeks alone, our economists have raised their forecasts for ECB rate hikes and cut their GDP numbers to signal a deeper upcoming recession. So let's dig into the investment implications of these challenges in a bit more detail. First on rates, over the last 20 years there has been a close relationship between interest rates and equity valuations, whereby higher rates lead to lower price to earnings ratios. Hence, the fact that central banks are still in the early stages of their hiking cycle suggests a high probability that PE ratios have further to fall. In addition to higher base rates, the pace of quantitative tightening is also speeding up, and our bond strategists forecast higher sovereign yields ahead. Here in Europe, they see ten year bond yields rising to 2% or more later this year, which will be consistent with a further fall in Europe's PE ratio to around 10x or so. That would imply 15% lower equity prices from here. Second, we expect the European economy to slow over the next couple of quarters and this should put pressure on corporate profits which have been resilient so far this year, thanks to strong commodity sector upgrades and a material boost from the weakness we've seen in the euro and sterling. Looking forward, our models are flagging large downside risks to consensus earnings estimates for the next 12 to 18 months and we are 16% below consensus by the end of 2023. To provide some additional context, we note that consensus expects European earnings, excluding the commodity sectors, to grow faster next year than this year. This acceleration looks odd to us when you consider that our economists see slower GDP growth in 23 than 22, and our own margin lead indicator is suggesting we could face the largest year on year drop in corporate margins since the global financial crisis. Our concern on earnings is a significant factor behind our continued preference for defensives over cyclicals. While some investors argue that the latter group are now sufficiently cheap to buy, we question the sustainability of the earnings that is underpinning the low PE ratios given the, first, we have seen very few downgrades so far. Second, margins are currently at record highs for many of these cyclical sectors. And then lastly, cyclicals tend to see larger earnings declines during downturns than the wider market. This gives rise to the old adage that investors should buy cyclicals on high PE ratios, not low ones. Consistent with this view, we have recently downgraded three cyclical sectors to underweight from our top down perspective, these being autos, capital goods and construction. We are also underweight chemicals and retailing. So what do we like instead? Sectors with more defensive characteristics, such as health care, insurance, telecoms, utilities and energy. We also like stocks that offer a high and secure cash return yield, whether that be driven by dividends, buybacks or both. To end on a positive note, the level of buyback activity in Europe has never been stronger than what we are seeing today, whether we measure it by the number of companies that are repurchasing their shares or the amounts of money they are spending to do so. In addition, we note that those European companies who have offered a healthy buyback yield over time have been consistent outperformers. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

On the 106th episode of the GreatBase Tennis (GBT) podcast, Steve Smith talks tennis with Dave Secker.Dave Secker and his boss, head coach Simon Earnshaw, are orchestrating a tennis success story that is getting better and better. Dave updates and reports on the North Carolina State women's tennis team. The team's climb has been fast and fabulous. Dave, who was previously a guest on the GBT podcast, shares invaluable tips, insightful wisdom and a few laughs. We are confident that our listeners will thoroughly enjoy a second-go-around with Dave.

Ed Opperman invited me on The Opperman Report to talk about the 1993 World Trade Center bombing. In this very fun conversation we discussed the question of FBI informant Emad Salem, and how he was pulled out of the WTC bombing gang 6 months before the blast. We also look at probable CIA assets the Blind Sheikh Omar Abdel Rahman and Ali Mohamed, and how their role was covered up in all the arguments over Salem. We rounded off by discussing my book and some problems with the alt media discussion of false flag events.

The Writer with No Hands is a 2017 British documentary feature film, which follows unemployed academic Matthew Alford as he tries to establish that the accidental death of Hollywood screenwriter Gary DeVore was, in fact, an assassination by the United States government

As Europe continues to curtail Russian gas imports, equity markets are preparing for further downturn in European economic growth, but there may be more risks yet to be priced in.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This research references country/ies which are generally the subject of comprehensive or selective sanctions programs administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies. Any references in this report to entities, debt or equity instruments, projects or persons that may be covered by such sanctions are strictly incidental to general coverage of the relevant Russian economic sector as germane to its overall financial outlook, and should not be read as recommending or advising as to any investment activities in relation to such entities, instruments or projects. Users of this report are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities in relation to any sanctioned country/ies are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions.-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Graham Secker, Head of Morgan Stanley's European Equity Strategy Team. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the two key issues that are dominating our current discussions with European equity clients, namely Russia gas supplies and the belated start to a new earnings downgrade cycle. It's Tuesday, July the 12th, at 2 p.m. in London. Over the last few months, we have been arguing that a curtailment of Russia gas imports represented the biggest risk to European equities and the main catalyst to push us down to our bear case scenario. While we are not yet ready to formally change our bull, base, or bear case index targets, recent news flow does suggest that risks remain skewed to the downside, and we note a further 17% downside from here to our bear case price target for MSCI Europe. Recent headlines about a reduction in Russia gas flows and the German government's move to level two of their emergency gas plan, has prompted our European economists to further lower their own GDP forecasts, and they now see a mild recession developing over the winter. However, with higher energy costs keeping inflation higher for longer, they make no changes to their European Central Bank forecasts and still expect European interest rates to move out of negative territory over the next few months. We have been expecting an EPS downgrade cycle to start in the third quarter, even before the recent rise in concerns around Russian gas supplies. While the realization of this risk event would likely drive a materially larger hit to profits, we note that European earnings revisions have already turned negative over the last couple of weeks, i.e. we are now seeing more analysts lowering EPS estimates than raising them. The sharp fall in equities over the last few months suggests that investors are already anticipating a sizable pullback in European profits. However, we do not think this means all of the bad news is already in the price. Rather, we note that a study of prior downturns suggests the stock markets tend to trough 2 to 3 weeks before earnings revisions bottom and that the minimum time duration between the start of a new downgrade cycle and this trough in earnings revisions is at least 3 months, but more often runs for over 6 months. In short, we are likely starting a 3 to 6 month earnings downgrade cycle and equities are unlikely to trough until we move towards the fourth quarter. Within the market, we expect the more defensive sectors to continue to outperform over the next couple of months, given their traditionally lower level of earnings volatility into a recession. The recent move lower in bond yields should also encourage some reinvestment into quality and growth stocks, and we have just raised luxury goods to overweight on this theme. In addition, the luxury sector should be a key beneficiary of the recent upturn in investor sentiment towards China. Luxury has a greater exposure to the China consumer than any other European sector. In contrast, we continue to recommend a more cautious stance on cyclicals, who don't traditionally start to outperform until the market itself troughs. Year to date, cyclical underperformance has been primarily driven by weakness in consumer facing stocks, reflecting the pressure on disposable income from high inflation. However, going forward, we expect to see greater underperformance from industrial cyclicals as weakness in end demand starts to move up the chain. These same companies are also likely to be the most adversely impacted by the disruption to Russia gas supplies, whether this be in terms of top line volumes, profit margins or both. For this reason, we are most cautious on stocks within the industrial, materials and autos sectors that also have a high degree of exposure to European end markets. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

As central bank policy across the globe shifts from tight fiscal policy to tight monetary policy, the rising cost of capital will have long-term consequences for investors.-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Graham Secker, Head of Morgan Stanley's European Equity Strategy Team. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives. I'll be talking about the rising cost of capital and its implications for European equities. It's Tuesday, June the 14th, at 2 p.m. in London. As we have discussed previously, we believe that we have witnessed a paradigm shift in the macro and market backdrops over the past couple of years, swapping the secular stagnation of the last decade with a new cycle where nominal growth is both higher and more volatile. An alternative way to think about this is that the policy dynamic has shifted from an environment of loose monetary and tight fiscal policy over the last two decades, to one of looser fiscal policy, but tighter monetary policy today. If this characterization proves to be true over the coming years, the longer term consequences for investors will be profound. While this may sound somewhat grandiose, it is worth noting that global interest rates fell to a record low in this last cycle. From such an unprecedented low, even a moderate increase in borrowing costs may feel significant, and we note that we have just witnessed the largest 2 year increase in 10 year U.S. Treasury yields since the early 1980s. The fact that we are starting a new and relatively fast rate hiking cycle, at the same time as central banks are shifting from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening, further magnifies the risk for spread products such as credit or peripheral debt, both of which have underperformed materially over the last couple of months. At this stage, we think it is this dynamic that is arguably weighing most on equity markets rather than the economic impact of higher borrowing costs. When thinking through the investment implications for European equity markets of this rise in the cost of capital, we make three points in ascending order of impact. First, the consequences of higher borrowing costs are likely to produce a relatively small hit to corporate profits. While we are concerned about a significant decline in corporate margins over the coming quarters, this is predominantly due to higher raw material prices and rising labor costs. In contrast, even a doubling of the effective interest rate on corporate debt should only take around 2.5% off of total European earnings. Second, we see a more significant impact from higher capital costs on equity valuations, as price to earnings ratios have exhibited a close negative correlation to both central bank policy rates and credit spreads over time. Hence, while European equity valuations are now beginning to look reasonably attractive after their decline this year, we think risks remain skewed to the downside over the summer, given a tricky backdrop of slowing growth, high and sticky inflation and hawkish central banks. Finally, the most significant impact from higher borrowing costs will, as ever, be felt by those entities that are most levered or require access to fresh funding. At this stage, we do not expect the ongoing increase in funding costs to generate a broader systemic shock across markets. However, we do see ample scope for idiosyncratic issues to emerge in the months ahead. Logically, identifying these issues in advance primarily requires due diligence at the stock level. However, from a top down perspective, the European sectors that are most correlated to credit spreads, and or have the weakest balance sheets, include autos, banks, consumer services, food retailing, insurance, telecoms and utilities. Ultimately, the volatility within asset markets that will accompany the largest upward shift in the cost of capital in over 30 years will create lots of opportunities for investors. However, for now, we recommend patience and await a better entry point later in the year. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Scott interviewed British journalist Tom Secker about the Pentagon's role in producing Top Gun: Maverick. The Department of Defense has an entire office set up to work with Hollywood. They give producers access to some military personnel as well as equipment in exchange for the final say over the script. Secker has gone through many documents over the years to find exactly what the military has changed in popular films. But with the Top Gun movies, the relationship is on a whole other level. Secker lays out the history of the first film, the sequel that got scrapped after the Pentagon pulled out in the 90s, and the eventual production of Top Gun: Maverick. Both Scott and Secker point out that they don't have a problem with action movies like this being made, just that the military hijacks film productions in order to boost its reputation far beyond what it deserves.  Discussed on the show: “Documents Reveal How Pentagon Shaped ‘Top Gun: Maverick' Into A Recruitment And PR Vehicle” (ShadowProof) “Why does the Pentagon give a helping hand to films like ‘Top Gun'?” (Los Angeles Times) Scott's previous interview with Secker Tom Secker is a British-based journalist, author, and podcaster specializing in the security services, Hollywood, propaganda, censorship and the history of terrorism. He is the author of National Security Cinema: The Shocking New Evidence of Government Control in Hollywood. Find him on Twitter @spyculture. This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: The War State and Why The Vietnam War?, by Mike Swanson; Tom Woods' Liberty Classroom; ExpandDesigns.com/Scott; EasyShip; Free Range Feeder; Thc Hemp Spot; Green Mill Supercritical; Bug-A-Salt and Listen and Think Audio. Shop Libertarian Institute merch or donate to the show through Patreon, PayPal or Bitcoin: 1DZBZNJrxUhQhEzgDh7k8JXHXRjYu5tZiG. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

 Download Episode. Scott interviewed British journalist Tom Secker about the Pentagon's role in producing Top Gun: Maverick. The Department of Defense has an entire office set up to work with Hollywood. They give producers access to some military personnel as well as equipment in exchange for the final say over the script. Secker has gone through many documents over the years to find exactly what the military has changed in popular films. But with the Top Gun movies, the relationship is on a whole other level. Secker lays out the history of the first film, the sequel that got scrapped after the Pentagon pulled out in the 90s, and the eventual production of Top Gun: Maverick. Both Scott and Secker point out that they don't have a problem with action movies like this being made, just that the military hijacks film productions in order to boost its reputation far beyond what it deserves.  Discussed on the show: “Documents Reveal How Pentagon Shaped ‘Top Gun: Maverick' Into A Recruitment And PR Vehicle” (ShadowProof) “Why does the Pentagon give a helping hand to films like ‘Top Gun'?” (Los Angeles Times) Scott's previous interview with Secker Tom Secker is a British-based journalist, author, and podcaster specializing in the security services, Hollywood, propaganda, censorship and the history of terrorism. He is the author of National Security Cinema: The Shocking New Evidence of Government Control in Hollywood. Find him on Twitter @spyculture. This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: The War State and Why The Vietnam War?, by Mike Swanson; Tom Woods' Liberty Classroom; ExpandDesigns.com/Scott; EasyShip; Free Range Feeder; Thc Hemp Spot; Green Mill Supercritical; Bug-A-Salt and Listen and Think Audio. Shop Libertarian Institute merch or donate to the show through Patreon, PayPal or Bitcoin: 1DZBZNJrxUhQhEzgDh7k8JXHXRjYu5tZiG.

The mid-year outlook for European stocks sees markets encountering a variety of challenges to equity performance, but there may still be some interesting opportunities for investors.-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Graham Secker, Head of Morgan Stanley's European Equity Strategy Team. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the tricky outlook for European stocks for the second half of the year, and where we think the best opportunities lie. It's Monday, May the 16th at 2 p.m. in London. Although the global macro backdrop feels particularly complicated just here, we think the outlook for European equities is relatively straightforward... and, unfortunately, still negative. Over the last month or so our European economists have revised their GDP forecast lower, their inflation forecast higher, and brought forward the timing of ECB interest rate hikes - an unappealing combination for risk assets, even before we consider elevated geopolitical risks. Looking into the second half of the year, we think this backdrop will persist, with European economic growth slowing considerably, but with inflation remaining sticky at around 7% and putting considerable pressure on consumer finances. As well as the consumer, we think corporates are also going to feel the squeeze from this backdrop of slowing growth and rising prices. So far, Europe's corporate earnings trend has held up remarkably well this year. However, we think this is about to change and that a new downgrade cycle is likely to start in the coming months. This cycle is likely to reflect two drivers. First, weaker top line demand as new orders slows. And second, a squeeze on corporate margins as companies struggle to pass on their own input costs to customers. If we look at the gap between real GDP growth, which is low, and inflation, which is high, then the decline in margins could be really quite severe. Historically, the impact on equity performance from a period of weaker earnings is often offset by a rise in the price-to-earnings ratio, as it usually coincides with more dovish central bank policy. However, this is unlikely to be the case this time, given that inflation is so high and central banks were relatively late to start their hiking cycle. Hence now the pace of rate hikes starts to accelerate as earnings starts to slow. Of course, some of this difficult backdrop is already priced into markets, given that investor sentiment appears to be low. However, we do not believe that all of the bad news is yet discounted. European equity valuations are now down to a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5, which is below the long run average. However, equity markets rarely trough on valuation grounds alone, and a further drop down towards 10-11x looks plausible to us over the summer. While we remain cautious on European equities at the headline level, we do see some interesting opportunities for investors to make money within the markets. First, at the country level, we continue to like the UK equity market and specifically the FTSE 100, which is the cheapest major global stock market. And it also benefits from having high defensive characteristics, which means it tends to outperform when global stocks are falling. Second, from a sector perspective, we prefer defensive names such as healthcare, telecoms, tobacco and utilities. We do expect to turn more positive on cyclicals later in 2022, but for now it is too early. On average, the best time to buy cyclicals is one month before economic leading indicators trough. The problem now is that these indices haven't started to fall yet. Lastly, we continue to favor value stocks over growth stocks. While the latter have underperformed quite significantly so far this year, we think valuations and positioning still remain too high and that a broader reset of expectations is needed before they become attractive again. One value strategy we particularly like here is buying stocks with attractive dividends, as we think these stocks offer an appealing alternative to bonds and provide some protection from higher rates and inflation. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Vox Yoga is a holistic approach to voice training, considering the voice as a whole instrument. Rosie Secker works in exploring the connection between body, breath, mind and voice, allowing a singer to embody their performance and sing in a healthy and expressive way. She joins Alexa on Singing Teachers Talk to discuss the connection between voice and body. Rosie will also be a guest speaker at the next Focus On event, The Body and The Singer, on June 27, 2022.    KEY TAKEAWAYS Vox Yoga is something people of any age can do although most of Rosie's classes are focused on adult learning. She does involve these techniques in one on one learning for people of all ages.  When we're in yoga postures, we often work on the core - without overworking it. We can listen to our bodies and take on modifications.  Yoga calms your nervous system which is fantastic for overall focus as well. It's easy to read a textbook that tells you where things are on your body and how they should move, but yoga creates physical awareness. It also highlights that everyone is different in terms of movement and flexibility. To be insured as a yoga teacher, you must be certified; however, you can carefully incorporate yoga techniques into your singing teaching if you understand how they will benefit students.    BEST MOMENTS ‘It can change you having a regular practice'  ‘Just getting moving is fantastic'  ‘Connecting to the breath helps us move more efficiency'  ‘You don't need anything to become a beginner'    EPISODE RESOURCES  BAST Training    Guest Website: www.voxyoga.co.uk www.rosiesecker.co.uk   Social Media:  @voxyogawithrosie   Relevant Links & Mentions:  Focus On The Body & The Singer Event: https://www.basttraining.com/event/focus-on-the-body-and-the-singer/ Yoga for Singers by Linda Lister  Vocal Yoga Teacher Certification with Heather Lyle: vocalyoga.com Vocal Yoga: The Joy of Breathing, Singing and Sounding by Heather Lyle  Yoga and Singing by Judith E Carman Vocal Health Education: vocalhealtlh.co.uk BAST Training: basttraining.com Thomas Myers: Myofascial Release  Vox Yoga Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/VoxYoga   ABOUT THE GUEST  Rosie trained with the vocal department at The Royal Birmingham Conservatoire, graduating with a First Class BMus (Hons). She went on to pursue a Master of Arts at Mountview Academy of Theatre Arts and since graduating has led a successful portfolio career as a singing teacher, holistic voice teacher and performer. As a singing teacher, Rosie has worked in a variety of contexts with different colleges, ensembles, age groups and abilities. She currently teaches at Bird College (Conservatoire of Dance & Musical Theatre) on the Degree and Diploma courses, and teaches singing at Lewes Old Grammar School, also running three choirs. Rosie has completed Estill Levels 1&2, is a Certified Vocal Health First Aider and is hoping to become a Vocal Rehabilitation Professional. Rosie is also a Certified 500hr Yoga Teacher, Certified Vocal Yoga Teacher and runs her own Vox Yoga workshops for organisations and individuals. Rosie works with singers to find their own unique voice, and sing with ease and confidence. Vox Yoga is a holistic approach to voice training, considering the voice as a whole instrument. Exploring the connection between body, breath, mind and voice, allows a singer to embody their performance and sing in a healthy and expressive way.   ABOUT THE PODCAST BAST Training is here to help singers gain the knowledge, skills and understanding required to be a great singing teacher. We can help you whether you are getting started or just have some knowledge gaps to fill through our courses and educational events. Website: basttraining.com Get updates to your inbox: Click here for updates from BAST Training Link to presenter's bios: basttraining.com/singing-teachers-talk-podcast-bios See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Although consensus forecasts for European equities continue to trend up, there are a few key risks on the horizon that investors may want to keep an eye on during the upcoming earnings season and year ahead.-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Graham Secker, Head of Morgan Stanley's European Equity Strategy Team. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the upcoming earnings season here in Europe and why we think corporate margins look set to come under pressure in the coming months. It's Wednesday, April the 20th at 2pm in London. This week marks the start of the first quarter earnings season for European companies, and we expect to see another "net beat", with more companies exceeding estimates than missing. However, while this may sound encouraging, we expect the size of this beat to be considerably smaller than recent quarters, which have been some of the best on record. At the same time, we think commentary around future trends is likely to turn more cautious, given triple headwinds from elevated geopolitical risks, an increasingly stagflation like economy and intensifying pressures on corporate margins. And we think this last point is probably the most underappreciated risk to European equities at this time. Historically, European margins have been positively correlated to inflation. Which likely reflects the index's sizable exposure to commodity sectors, and also the fact that the presence of inflation itself tends to signal both a strong topline environment and a positive pricing power dynamic for companies. In this regard, we note the consensus sales revisions for European companies are currently close to a 20-year high. So far, so good. However, the influence of inflation on the bottom line depends much more on its relative relationship with real GDP growth. Put simply, when inflation is below real GDP growth margins tend to rise, but when inflation is above real GDP growth, as it is now, margins and profitability in general tend to fall. As of today, consensus forecasts for European margins have yet to turn down. However, we have seen earnings revisions turn negative in recent weeks, such as the gap between sales revisions, which are currently positive, and earnings revisions, currently negative, has never been wider. In addition to this warning signal on margins from higher input costs, companies are also continuing to deal with challenging supply chain issues, whether related to the conflict in Eastern Europe or to the recent COVID lockdowns in China. A recent survey from the German Chambers of Commerce suggested that 46% of companies supply chains are completely disrupted or severely impacted by the current COVID 19 situation in China. In contrast, just 7% of companies reported no negative impact at all. For now, the market appears to be ignoring these warning signs. Consensus 2022 earnings estimates for the MSCI Europe Index are still trending up and have now risen by 5% year to date. This compares to a much smaller 2% upgrade for U.S. earnings and actual downgrades for Japan and emerging markets. While commodity sectors are the main source of this European upgrade, the absence of any offsetting downgrades across other sectors feels unsustainable to us. Ahead of every earnings season, we survey our European analysts to gather their views on the credibility of consensus forecasts. This quarter, the survey generally supports our own top down views, with our analysts expecting a small upside beat to consensus numbers in the first quarter, but then seeing downside risks for the full year 2022 estimates. This is the first time in nearly two years that this survey has given us a cautious message. Taking it to the sector level, our analysts see the greatest downside risks to consensus estimates for banks, construction, industrials, insurance, media, retailing and consumer staples. In contrast, our analysts see upside risks to earnings forecasts for brands, chemicals, energy, mining, healthcare and utilities. Historically, a move higher in equity valuations often tends to mitigate the impact on market performance from prior periods of earnings downgrades. However, we are skeptical that price to earnings ratios will rise much from here, as long as global central banks remain hawkish. Consequently, we continue to see an unattractive risk reward profile for European stocks just here and suggest investors wait for a better entry point, after economic and earnings expectations have reset lower. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

As European markets price in slowing growth, increased inflation and geopolitical tensions, pricing power is a potential focus for European investors looking to weather the storm.-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Graham Secker, Head of Morgan Stanley's European Equity Strategy Team. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the impacts of recent geopolitical developments on European markets and why rising stagflation pressures point towards owning companies with good pricing power. It's Tuesday, March the 8th at 1:00 pm in London.Since our last podcast on European equities, the backdrop has changed considerably, with an escalation in geopolitical tensions putting upward pressure on inflation, downward pressure on growth and generally raising European risk premia as uncertainty spikes. Last week my colleague Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief European Economist, cut his forecasts for European GDP growth for this year and next, while also raising his projections for inflation on the back of higher energy costs. While Jens is not predicting a European recession at this time, investors are becoming incrementally more worried about this possibility as geopolitical tensions extend and oil and gas prices continue to rise. Even if Europe does manage to avoid falling into an outright recession, the stagflationary conditions that are building in the region, namely slowing growth and rising inflation, have important implications for investors. Across the broader market it points to a more challenging backdrop for corporate profits as slowing top line momentum coincides with growing margin pressures from higher input costs. At the same time, heightened geopolitical uncertainty is putting downward pressure on equity valuations as investors rotate out of the region, thereby lowering the price to earnings ratio at the same time as profit expectations retrench. After a near 20% decline from their January highs, it's fair to say that European stocks are pricing in quite a lot of bad news here, with equity valuations now below long run averages and close to record lows vs. U.S. stocks. While we think this provides an attractive entry point for longer term investors, European markets will likely remain tricky in the short term as investor sentiment oscillates between hope and fear. Our experience suggests that markets rarely trough on valuation grounds alone, instead requiring a backdrop of broad capitulation, coupled with a more positive turn in the news flow - conditions that have not yet fallen into place. In many respects stagflation is the worst environment for asset allocators, as slow growth weighs on stocks at the same time as high inflation potentially undermines the case for bonds. Thankfully such an environment has been rare over the last 50 years, however we can still construct a ‘stagflation playbook' for equity markets when it comes to picking stocks and sectors. Specifically, we identify prior periods when inflation was rising at the same time as growth indicators were falling. We then analyze performance trends over those periods. When we do this, we find that a stagflationary backdrop tends to favor commodity and defensive oriented stocks at the expense of cyclical and financial companies - a trend that has repeated itself over the last month here in Europe. An alternative strategy is to focus on companies that have strong pricing power, as they should have more ability to raise prices to offset higher input costs than other stocks. In a European context, sectors that are currently raising prices to expand their margins, even in the face of rising input costs, include airlines, brands, hotels, metals and mining companies, telecoms and tobacco. To be clear, not every stock in these sectors will enjoy superior pricing power, but we think these areas are a good place to start the search. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Kerry Secker has one of the most successful holistic infant sleep companies in the UK and ever since this podcast started I have been itching to sit her down and find out more about why she went down the care-it-out route when all her peers were putting their kids on naughty steps and leaving babies to settle themselves. We talk about what crying means and why it's not necessarily a bad thing - but also why cry-it-out and controlled crying are very different strategies to how we approach sleep.For more information about Kerry, go to www.careitout.com