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With multiple, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, our analyst says investors should separate signals from noise in how these events can impact markets.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This research may reference jurisdiction(s) or person(s) which are the subject of sanctions administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the United Kingdom, the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies. Any references in this report to jurisdictions, persons (individuals or entities), debt or equity instruments, or projects that may be covered by such sanctions are strictly incidental to general coverage of the relevant economic sector as germane to its overall financial outlook, and should not be read as recommending or advising as to any investment activities in relation to such jurisdictions, persons, instruments, or projects. Users of this report are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the impact of geopolitical events on markets. It's Wednesday, February 7 at 5 pm in London.Geopolitical conflicts around the globe seem to be escalating in recent weeks. Increased US military involvement in the Middle East, fresh uncertainty about Ukraine's resources in its conflict with Russia, and lingering concerns about the US-China relationship are in focus. And since financial markets and economies around the world have become more interconnected, it's more important than ever for investors to separate signals from noise in how these events can impact markets. So here's a few key takeaways that, in our view, do just that.First, fighting in the red sea may influence the supply chain, but the results are probably smaller than you'd think. Yes, there's been a more than 200 per cent increase in the cost of freight containers moving through a channel that accounts for 12 per cent of global trade. But, the diversion of the freight traffic to longer routes around Africa really just represents a one-time lengthening of the delivery of goods to port. That's because there's an oversupply of containers that were built in response to bottlenecks created by increased demand for goods during the pandemic. So now that there's a steady flow of containers with goods in them, even if they are avoiding the Red Sea, the impact on availability of goods to consumers is manageable, with only a modest effect on inflation expected by our economists.Second, ramifications on oil prices from the Middle East conflict should continue to be modest. While it might seem nonsensical that fighting in the Middle East hasn't led to higher oil prices, that's more or less what's happened. But that's because disruptions to the flow of oil don't appear to be in the interest of any of the actors involved, as it would create political and economic risk on all sides. So, if you're concerned about movements in the price of oil as a catalyst for growth or inflation, then our team recommends looking at the traditional supply and demand drivers for oil, which appear balanced around current prices.Finally, as the US election campaigns gear up, so does rhetoric around the US-China economic relationship. And here we see some things worth paying attention to. Simply put, higher tariffs imposed by the US are a real risk in the event that party control of the White House changes. That's the stated position of Republicans' likely candidate – former President Trump – and we see no reason to doubt that, based on how the former President levied tariffs last time he was in office. As our chief Asia economist Chetan Ahya recently noted, such an outcome creates downside risk for the China economy, at a time when downside risk is accumulating for other structural reasons. It's one reason our Asia equity strategy team continues to prefer other markets in Asia, in particular Japan.Of course, these situations and their market implications can obviously evolve quickly. We'll be paying close attention, and keeping you in the loop.Thanks for listening! Subscribe to Thoughts on the Market on Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen, and leave us a review. We'd love to hear from you.

Host Professor Katerina Linos talks with three international law scholars on sanctions and their role in comparative perspective. Berkeley Law Professor Elena Chachko joins Professor Luis M. Hinojosa-Martínez and Professor Carmela Pérez-Bernárdez from the Department of Public International Law and International Relations at the University of Granada, Spain, for a frank look at international sanctions as a legal tool used by self-governing states via bodies like the UN Security Council, European Union, and the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). Listeners will come away understanding sanctions, and their intended goal to pressure change from countries – as well as individuals, companies, or organizations – causing violent wars, implementing harmful policies, or disregarding international laws. In the 21st century, recommendations have shifted toward restrictive measures, or so-called “smart sanctions,” targeting regimes rather than people. Discussion covers current and historic implementations of sanctions with an incisive review of successes and critiques. For further study, see, e.g., Enhancing the Rule of Law in the European Union's External Action, Luis M. Hinojosa-Martínez and Carmela Pérez-Bernárdez (eds.), Edward Elgar, 2023 (Part III.A includes chapters dealing with “sanctions and the rule of law”); and “A Watershed Moment for Sanctions? Russia, Ukraine, and the Economic Battlefield,” Elena Chachko and J. Benton Heath, pp.135-139, and “Ukraine and the Emergency Powers of International Institutions,” Elena Chachko and Katerina Linos, pp. 775–87, in American Journal of International Law 116(4): Symposium on Ukraine and the International Order, AJIL Unbound, 2022; Elena Chachko and Katerina Linos (eds.), published as Open Access articles by Cambridge University Press on behalf of The American Society of International Law.For a transcript of this episode, please visit the episode page on Berkeley Law website. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode, Reid Whitten, Managing Partner of Sheppard Mullin's London office, joins host Scott Maberry to discuss the state of the semiconductor industry, including the U.S. regulatory approach and the lessons it holds for other industries centered on advanced technologies.   Why is there so much focus on the semiconductor industry? What's new and different about the U.S. regulatory approach? What other industries could be candidates for similar regulation? If a business unit has an NSC licensing exemption, what should it do now to gain a strategic advantage in the future? What does the recent enhancement of the Foreign Direct Product Rule do? What are the implications of the U.S. Person Activity regulation?  Can you explain the concept of “technological containment?” What is the state of U.S. technological containment of China? What's the big takeaway for the semiconductor industry? What's the message for every other industry?   About Reid Whitten Managing Partner of Sheppard Mullin's London office and leader of the firm's CFIUS Team, Reid Whitten's practice centers on international trade regulations and investigations. Reid is a member of Chatham House, the UK's Royal Institute of International Affair, as well as an adjunct lecturer at the New College of the Humanities in London, at the Université Catholique de Lille in France and at Wake Forest University in the U.S, He also conducts seminars on regulatory updates for industry groups in the U.S., France, Belgium, Spain and the UK. A thought leader on cross-border business regulation, Reid is frequently called upon to provide commentary and analysis for television news channels, international newspapers and trade publications. He is also the lead author and editor of The CFIUS Book.   About Scott Maberry An international trade partner in Governmental Practice, J. Scott Maberry counsels clients on global risk, international trade, and regulation.  Scott's practice includes representing clients before the U.S. government agencies and international U.S. Department of Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), the Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry & Security (BIS), the Department of Commerce Import Administration, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Department of State Directorate of Defense Trade Controls (DDTC), the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), the International Trade Commission (ITC) and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS). He also represents clients in federal court and grand jury proceedings, as well as those pursuing negotiations and dispute resolution under the World Trade Organization (WTO), North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and other multilateral and bilateral agreements.  A member of the World Economic Forum Expert Network, Scott also advises the WEF community in the areas of global risk, international trade, artificial intelligence and values.   Contact Information Reid Whitten Scott Maberry   Thank you for listening! Don't forget to SUBSCRIBE to the show to receive two new episodes delivered straight to your podcast player every month. If you enjoyed this episode, please help us get the word out about this podcast. Rate and Review this show on Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, Google Podcasts or Spotify. It helps other listeners find this show. This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not to be construed as legal advice specific to your circumstances. If you need help with any legal matter, be sure to consult with an attorney regarding your specific needs.

Crypto CubedIt's enigmatic and potential problematic. Lisa Forte, Partner at Red Goat Security , Phil Ingram MBE of Greyhare Media and Ian Thornton-Trump CD, CISO for Cyjax go around the table on Cryptocurrencies and the wide-ranging impact they are having on geopolitical conflict and economic conflict. The panel covers a lot of ground. The sensational trial of Sam Bankman-Fried who was found guilty on all seven counts related to the collapse of FTX could land him 115 years in jail depending on how much momentum there is for an appeal – his attorney Mark Cohen said Bankman-Fried respects the jury's decision but maintains his innocence and will continue to "vigorously fight the charges." So, yet another chapter in the saga may yet unfold.The background to the trial was straight forward. The FTX exchange fell into bankruptcy after users found they could no longer withdraw their funds, worth billions of dollars in aggregate. The money was funnelled it into a sibling company, called Alameda Research, and used it for risky stock trades, political donations, and funding his extravagant lifestyle. He also flamboyantly ignored his lawyer's advice and prior to the trial he conducted many media interviews as well as written testimony to Congress and then as part of the final trial preceding's appeared on the witness stand to defend himself. It's safe to say the jury was unimpressed as he crumbled against all the evidence, he himself had provided to government prosecutors due to his public statements.The fundraising efforts and overt Iranian funding of the Hamas terrorist organization came under discussion.  Eleven days after the Terrorist attack in Israel the "U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) imposed sanctions on ten key Hamas terrorist group members, operatives, and financial facilitators in Gaza and elsewhere including Sudan, Türkiye, Algeria, and Qatar. This action targets members managing assets in a secret Hamas investment portfolio, a Qatar-based financial facilitator with close ties to the Iranian regime, a key Hamas commander, and a Gaza-based virtual currency exchange and its operator." Digging deeper into this it was soon realised crypto currency and exchanges had played a massive part in providing the funds to conduct the sinister attack into southern Israel.  It appears financial sanctions against terrorist organizations were easily bypassed by cryptocurrencies exchanges despite intelligence of digital-currency wallets connected to Hamas receiving about $41 million over the past two years according to Tel Aviv-based crypto analytics and software firm BitOK and information on Palestinian Islamic Jihad receiving $93 million in crypto during the same period, based on crypto researcher Elliptic's data.Zooming out of these specific revelations the panel examined the wider implications of both nation state sanction avoidance, the ability to effectively bypass the American financial system and the role of crypto currencies in funding global political movements - somewhat anonymously. There are rather chilling revelations as cryptocurrencies are found at the very centre of political agendas, disinformation campaigns and financial transactions between countries subject to economic sanctions by both US and EU/UK governments. Despite analysis proclaiming that far more legitimate and legal transactions are occurring on crypto currency blockchains than illegitimate and illegal transactions the simple conclusion is we don't know how bad the problem is until the damage has already been done.

In this episode, Harper Batts, partner in Sheppard Mullin Silicon Valley's Intellectual Property Group and co-leader of its Semiconductor Industry Team, joins host Scott Maberry to discuss the different forums for patent lawsuits, the complex nature of resolving semiconductor patent disputes, the timing to resolve the lawsuits and more.   What We Discussed in This Episode: What are the different venues to resolve patent disputes? What sort of timing is associated with the different forums? Why has there been an uptick in filing lawsuits in international venues? Besides money, what sort of damages or relief can parties get? What is the benefit of showing competitive harm? How do you best litigate these complex matters in front of a jury?   About Harper Batts Harper Batts is a partner in the Intellectual Property Practice Group located in the firm's Silicon Valley office. He is also the leader of Sheppard Mullin's Post Grant Proceedings (PTAB) Group and Semiconductor Industry Team. Harper has almost two decades of experience as an intellectual property litigator and client counselor. Harper has obtained institution on more than 90% of the IPRs he has filed – a number unmatched across the country. Numerous Fortune 500 clients have relied upon his experience to represent them in highly contentious patent disputes in venues across the country. He has been selected multiple times as a Top IP Attorney in California by the Daily Journal (including this year), and IAM Patent 1000 noted that Harper “performs adroitly in post-grant proceedings on both the patent owner and petitioner sides.” In 2022 and 2023, he obtained institution of numerous petitions for inter partes review, obtained numerous final written decisions finding all claims unpatentable, and obtained an exceptional case finding and an award of attorney's fees in the Central District of California in 2020. He focuses on immediately determining the most relevant and effective pressure points against an adversary to quickly resolve a dispute with minimal disruption and cost to a client. Harper is one of the leading attorneys for handling complex PTAB challenges across a variety of technologies. Harper has represented patent challengers and patent owners in more than 80 CBM and IPR proceedings. He has extensive experience in cases before the Patent Trial and Appeal Board as well as related appeals. About Scott Maberry As an international trade partner in Governmental Practice, J. Scott Maberry counsels clients on global risk, international trade, and regulation. He is also a past co-chair of the Diversity and Inclusion Working Group for the Washington D.C. office, serves on the firm's pro bono committee, and is a founding member of the Sheppard Mullin Organizational Integrity Group. Scott's practice includes representing clients before the U.S. government agencies and international U.S. Department of Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), the Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry & Security (BIS), the Department of Commerce Import Administration, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Department of State Directorate of Defense Trade Controls (DDTC), the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), the International Trade Commission (ITC), and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS). He also represents clients in federal court and grand jury proceedings, as well as those pursuing negotiations and dispute resolution under the World Trade Organization (WTO), North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and other multilateral and bilateral agreements. A member of the World Economic Forum Expert Network, Scott also advises the WEF community in the areas of global risk, international trade, artificial intelligence and values.   Contact Information Harper Batts Scott Maberry Thank you for listening! Don't forget to SUBSCRIBE to the show to receive two new episodes delivered straight to your podcast player every month. If you enjoyed this episode, please help us get the word out about this podcast. Rate and Review this show on Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, Google Podcasts or Spotify. It helps other listeners find this show. This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not to be construed as legal advice specific to your circumstances. If you need help with any legal matter, be sure to consult with an attorney regarding your specific needs.

How can U.S. federal government agencies strengthen their payment integrity efforts? What can the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Accounting Policy and Financial Transparency do to help with these efforts? How can we pivot from compliance to prevention-focused strategies that promote the use of data and analytics and collaboration across government and other stakeholders in advancing payment integrity? Join host Michael Keegan as he explores these questions and more with Renata Miskell, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Accounting Policy and Financial Transparency, at the U.S. Department of the Treasury. 

How can U.S. federal government agencies strengthen their payment integrity efforts? What can the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Accounting Policy and Financial Transparency do to help with these efforts? How can we pivot from compliance to prevention-focused strategies that promote the use of data and analytics and collaboration across government and other […]

Hear veteran risk manager, advisor and professor Clifford Rossi's viewpoints on trends, threats and opportunities in the commercial and residential real estate markets.  The past couple of years have been an extremely challenging time for risk practitioners charged with measuring and managing real estate risk. In both commercial real estate and residential real estate, concerns have been raised globally about interest rates, inflation and economic uncertainty. Indeed, in a recent Federal Reserve survey on salient risks – part of the Fed's October Financial Stability Report – roughly 75 percent of respondents cited the potential for “large losses on CRE and residential real estate.” CRE, more specifically, has been plagued by escalating vacancy rates for office buildings, thanks in part to the remote work trend that started during the pandemic and has since taken off. Residential real estate, meanwhile, has dealt with worries about housing affordability. As a former CRO at multiple banks and as an ex-senior risk manager at Fannie Mae and Freddi Mac, Cliff Rossi, our honored guest today, knows all about the CRE and residential real estate risks facing financial institutions today. Cliff, the current Director of the Smith Enterprise Risk Consortium at the University of Maryland (UMD), speaks with GARP editorial director Robert Sales about global real estate concerns and challenges, and offers advice on how firms can more effectively manage their exposures.   SPEAKER'S BIO: Clifford Rossi (PhD) is the Director of the Smith Enterprise Risk Consortium at the University of Maryland (UMD) and a Professor-of-the-Practice and Executive-in-Residence at UMD's Robert H. Smith School of Business. He is also the author of GARP's monthly “CRO Outlook” column. Prior to entering academia, Rossi had nearly 25 years of experience in banking and government, having held senior executive roles in risk management at several of the largest financial services companies. His most recent position was Managing Director and Chief Risk Officer for Citigroup's Consumer Lending Group, where he was responsible for overseeing the risk of a $300+B global portfolio of mortgage, home equity, student loans and auto loans with 700 employees under his direction. While there he was intimately involved in Citi's TARP and stress test activities. He also served as Chief Credit Officer at Washington Mutual (WaMu) and as Managing Director and Chief Risk Officer at Countrywide Bank. Previous to these assignments, Rossi held senior risk management positions at Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. He started his career during the thrift crisis at the U.S. Treasury's Office of Domestic Finance and later at the Office of Thrift Supervision working on key policy issues affecting depositories. Rossi was also an adjunct professor in the Finance Department at the Robert H. Smith School of Business for eight years and has numerous academic and nonacademic articles on banking industry topics. Rossi is frequently quoted on financial policy issues in major newspapers and has appeared on such programs as C-SPAN's Washington Journal and CNN's Situation Room. His book for risk practitioners and graduate students, A Risk Professional's Survival Guide, was published in 2014 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. His research interests are in financial and nonfinancial risk management, risk governance and analytics and climate risk.

Hello, and welcome to episode 79 of the Financial Crime Weekly Podcast, I'm Chris Kirkbride. Sanctions and fraud news take our focus this week, but the other areas of financial crime keep those areas ticking along nicely. We also take a look at this week's cyber-attack news. As usual, I have linked the main stories flagged in the podcast in the description. These are: Criminal Cases Review Commission, Financial trader's conviction referred to Court of Appeal.Crown Prosecution Service, Bernie Ecclestone convicted of fraud.Financial Conduct Authority, Cryptoasset AML / CTF regime: feedback on good and poor quality applications.Financial Conduct Authority, Whistleblowing quarterly data 2023 Q2.Financial Conduct Authority, Financial watchdog fines Equifax Ltd £11 million for role in one of the largest cyber-security breaches in history.Financial Conduct Authority, Final Notice: Equifax Ltd.Financial Conduct Authority, Restrictions placed on IBP Markets Limited and the firm enters special administration.Financial Conduct Authority, First Supervisory Notice: IBP Markets Limited.Financial Reporting Council, Sanctions against KPMG LLP, KPMG Audit plc and two former partners.Hiscox, Cyber Readiness Report 2023.Home Office, Independent Review of Disclosure and Fraud Offences: terms of reference.Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, The 21st-century evolution of cyber security.National Cyber Security Centre, Mastering your supply chain (blog post).New Zealand Supreme Court, David Charles Rae v Commissioner of New Zealand Police - SC 33/2023.Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation, General licence - INT/2023/3024200.Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation, General Licence INT/2022/2300292.Ogier, Employee Cyber Awareness Still A Major Concern - Make Sure Your Team Is On The Ball.Payment Systems Regulator, PSR responds to Which?, Age UK, National Trading Standards and Victim Support.UK Court Service, Boris Mints & Ors v PJSC National Bank Trust & Anor [2023] EWCA Civ 1132.US Bureau of Justice Statistics, Victims of Identity Theft, 2021.US Department of Justice, Deputy Attorney General Lisa O. Monaco Announces New Safe Harbor Policy for Voluntary Self-Disclosures Made in Connection with Mergers and Acquisitions.US Department of Justice, Acting Assistant Attorney General Nicole M. Argentieri Delivers Remarks at the American Bar Association 10th Annual London White Collar Crime Institute.US Department of Justice, Ten Individuals Charged for $950,000 COVID-19 Relief Fraud Schemes.US Department of Justice, Man Sentenced for Over $500,000 COVID-19 Relief Fraud and Money Laundering Scheme.US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control, Treasury Sanctions Entities for Transporting Oil Sold Above the Coalition Price Cap to Restrict Russia's War Machine.War & Sanctions, Artworks owned by Roman Abramovich.

Hello, and welcome to episode 77 of the Financial Crime Weekly Podcast, I'm Chris Kirkbride. Sanctions have taken a back seat this week, but plenty on fraud and money laundering to take up the slack. There'll also be a round-up of the mass of cyber-attack news this week. As usual, I have linked the main stories flagged in the podcast in the description. These are: Criminal Cases Review Commission, Five more ex Post Office workers have convictions set aside.Financial Action Task Force, Anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing measures: Luxembourg Mutual Evaluation Report.House Oversight Committee (Cybersecurity, Information Technology, and Government Innovation and Economic Growth, Energy Policy, and Regulatory Affairs Joint Hearing), Combating Ransomware Attacks.Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation, Financial Sanctions Notice: Russia (27/09/2023).Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation, Financial Sanctions Notice: Russia (29/09/2023).Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation, Correspondent Banking Payments INT/2023/3566356.Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation, Guidance: Who is subject to financial sanctions in the UK? (updated).Reynolds Porter Chamberlain, Cybersecurity breaches at financial services firms more than trebles.Securities and Exchange Commission, SEC Charges Former Financial Industry Analyst and Three Others with Insider Trading.Serious Fraud Office, Nick Ephgrave QPM begins tenure as Director of the Serious Fraud Office.UK Government, UK announces new sanctions in response to Russian sham elections in Ukraine.US Department of Justice, Two Brothers Plead Guilty To COVID Relief Fraud.US Department of Justice, Five Cleveland-Area Men Sentenced to Imprisonment and Ordered to Pay Over $800,000 as part of a Pandemic Unemployment Assistance Fraud Scheme.US Department of Justice, Two Promoters Charged in Alleged Nationwide Illegal Abusive-Trust Tax Shelter Fraud Scheme.US Department of Justice, Former Employee of Two Leading Global Financial Institutions and his Associates Charged with Insider Trading.US Department of Justice, Albemarle to Pay Over $218M to Resolve Foreign Corrupt Practices Act Investigation.US Department of the Treasury, Office of Foreign Assets Control, OFAC Settles with 3M Company for $9,618,477 Related to Apparent Violations of the Iranian Transactions and Sanctions Regulations.US Department of the Treasury, Office of Foreign Assets Control, OFAC Settles with Emigrant Bank for $31,867.90 Related to Apparent Violations of the Iranian Transactions and Sanctions Regulations.US Department of the Treasury, Office of Foreign Assets Control, Settlement Agreements between the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control and 3M Company, and with Emigrant Bank (press release).US Securities and Exchange Commission, Deutsche Bank Subsidiary DWS to Pay $25 Million for Anti-Money Laundering Violations and Misstatements Regarding ESG Investments.US Securities and Exchange Commission, Albemarle Corp. to Pay SEC More Than $103 Million to Settle FCPA Violations.

EPISODE 1712: In this KEEN ON show, Andrew talks to Simon Johnson, co-author of POWER & PROGRESS, on what we can learn from our 1000-year struggle over technology and prosperity to make our age of Generative AI more equitable SIMON JOHNSON is the Ronald A. Kurtz (1954) Professor of Entrepreneurship at the MIT Sloan School of Management, where he is head of the Global Economics and Management group. In 2007-08 he was chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, and he currently co-chairs the CFA Institute Systemic Risk Council. In February 2021, Johnson joined the board of directors of Fannie Mae. Johnson's most recent book, with Daron Acemoglu, Power and Progress: Our 1000-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity, explores the history and economics of major technological transformations up to and including the latest developments in Artificial Intelligence.His previous book, with Jonathan Gruber, Jump-Starting America: How Breakthrough Science Can Revive Economic Growth and the American Dream, explained how to create millions of good new jobs around the U.S., through renewed public investment in research and development. This proposal attracted bipartisan support. Johnson was previously a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C., a cofounder of BaselineScenario.com, a member of the Congressional Budget Office's Panel of Economic Advisors, and a member of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's Systemic Resolution Advisory Committee. From July 2014 to early 2017, Johnson was a member of the Financial Research Advisory Committee of the U.S. Treasury's Office of Financial Research (OFR), within which he chaired the Global Vulnerabilities Working Group. “The Quiet Coup” received over a million views when it appeared in The Atlantic in early 2009. His book 13 Bankers: the Wall Street Takeover and the Next Financial Meltdown (with James Kwak), was an immediate bestseller and has become one of the mostly highly regarded books on the financial crisis. Their follow-up book on U.S. fiscal policy, White House Burning: The Founding Fathers, Our National Debt, and Why It Matters for You, won praise across the political spectrum. Johnson's academic research papers on long-term economic development, corporate finance, political economy, and public health are widely cited. “For his articulate and outspoken support for public policies to end too-big-to-fail”, Johnson was named a Main Street Hero by the Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA) in 2013. Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting KEEN ON, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy show. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Cyberlaw Podcast is back from August hiatus, and the theme of the episode seems to be the way other countries are using the global success of U.S. technology to impose their priorities on the U.S. Exhibit 1 is the EU's Digital Services Act, which took effect last month. Michael Ellis spells out a few of the act's sweeping changes in how U.S. tech companies must operate – nominally in Europe but as a practical matter in the U.S. as well. The largest platforms will be heavily regulated, with restrictions on their content curation algorithms and a requirement that they promote government content when governments declare a crisis. Other social media will also be subject to heavy content regulation, such as transparency in their decisions to demote or ban content and a requirement that they respond promptly to takedown requests from “trusted flaggers” of Bad Speech. In search of a silver lining, I point out that many of the transparency and due process requirements are things that Texas and Florida have advocated over the objections of Silicon Valley companies. Compliance with the EU Act will undercut those claims in the Supreme Court arguments we're likely to hear this term,  claiming that it can't be done. Cristin Flynn Goodwin and I note that China's on-again off-again regulatory enthusiasm is off again. Chinese officials are doing their best to ease Western firms' concerns about China's new data security law requirements. Even more remarkable, China's AI regulatory framework was watered down in August, moving away from the EU model and toward a U.S./U.K. ethical/voluntary approach. For now.  Cristin also brings us up to speed on the SEC's rule on breach notification. The short version: The rule will make sense to anyone who's ever stopped putting out a kitchen fire to call their insurer to let them know a claim may be coming.  Nick Weaver brings us up to date on cryptocurrency and the law. Short version: Cryptocurrency had one victory, which it probably deserved, in the Grayscale case, and a series of devastating losses over Tornado Cash, as a court rejected Tornado Cash's claim that its coders and lawyers had found a hole in Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control ("OFAC") regime, and the Justice Department indicted the prime movers in Tornado Cash for conspiracy to launder North Korea's stolen loot. Here's Nick's view in print.  Just to show that the EU isn't the only jurisdiction that can use U.S. legal models to hurt U.S. policy, China managed to kill Intel's acquisition of Tower Semiconductor by stalling its competition authority's review of the deal. I see an eerie parallel between the Chinese aspirations of federal antitrust enforcers and those of the Christian missionaries we sent to China in the 1920s.   Michael and I discuss the belated leak of the national security negotiations between CFIUS and TikTok. After a nod to substance (no real surprises in the draft), we turn to the question of who leaked it, and whether the effort to curb TikTok is dead. Nick and I explore the remarkable impact of the war in Ukraine on drone technology. It may change the course of war in Ukraine (or, indeed, a war over Taiwan), Nick thinks, but it also means that Joe Biden may be the last President to see the sky while in office. (And if you've got space in D.C. and want to hear Nick's provocative thoughts on the topic, he will be in town next week, and eager to give his academic talk: "Dr. Strangedrone, or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Slaughterbots".) Cristin, Michael and I dig into another August policy initiative, the “outbound Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS)” order. Given the long delays and halting rollout, I suggest that the Treasury's Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) on the topic really stands for Ambivalent Notice of Proposed Rulemaking.”  Finally, I suggest that autonomous vehicles may finally have turned the corner to success and rollout, now that they're being used as rolling hookup locations  and (perhaps not coincidentally) being approved to offer 24/7 robotaxi service in San Francisco. Nick's not ready to agree, but we do find common ground in criticizing a study. Download 470th Episode (mp3) You can subscribe to The Cyberlaw Podcast using iTunes, Google Play, Spotify, Pocket Casts, or our RSS feed. As always, The Cyberlaw Podcast is open to feedback. Be sure to engage with @stewartbaker on Twitter. Send your questions, comments, and suggestions for topics or interviewees to CyberlawPodcast@gmail.com. Remember: If your suggested guest appears on the show, we will send you a highly coveted Cyberlaw Podcast mug! The views expressed in this podcast are those of the speakers and do not reflect the opinions of their institutions, clients, friends, families, or pets.

In this episode, Michael Zhang, managing partner of Sheppard Mullin's Shanghai office, and Reid Whitten, managing partner of the firm's London office, join host Scott Maberry to discuss a new law that, for the first time, will prevent some U.S. investments in China.    What We Discussed in This Episode: Why would the United States impose a new trade restriction on its third-largest trading partner? What sectors will be affected? When do the prohibitions come into effect? What investors will the investment restrictions apply to? How does the outbound investment restriction fit into overall U.S. China policy? How is this policy viewed from the Chinese business perspective? What reaction should we expect from the Chinese government?   About Michael Zhang Michael Zhang is a lawyer and the managing partner of Sheppard Mullin's Shanghai office. He has a deep understanding of China's legal system and business practices, as well as broad experience in corporate transactions, corporate restructuring, antitrust law, intellectual property, cybersecurity, and personal information protection law in China. Throughout his career, Michael has represented many U.S. and European clients making investments in China and Asia, including mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures, and debt restructurings. He has helped invest in and create business in the internet technology, life sciences, healthcare, automotive, logistics, material hi-tech, telecommunication and software sectors. His extensive knowledge of international business transactions has allowed Michael to represent leading Chinese companies in their outbound equity and asset transactions outside Mainland China, specifically in life science and healthcare, e-commerce and green technology. Drawing on his rich knowledge of antitrust laws in China and other East Asian countries, Michael also counsels U.S. and international clients, as well as Chinese local companies, on international and PRC antitrust issues with respect to pre-merger control, price fixing and monopolistic agreement issues.   About Reid Whitten As Managing Partner of Sheppard Mullin's London office and leader of the firm's CFIUS Team, Reid Whitten's practice centers on international trade regulations and investigations. He works with clients around the world to plan, prepare, and succeed in global transactions. He focuses on his clients' cross-border investments, particularly in the technology and aerospace sectors, helping clients navigate the international trade regulations that could disrupt their deals.  Reid is a member of Chatham House, the UK's Royal Institute of International Affair. In addition to lecturing at the New College of the Humanities in London, at the Université Catholique de Lille in France, and Wake Forest University in the U.S, he also conducts seminars on regulatory updates for industry groups in the U.S., France, Belgium, Spain and the UK. A thought leader on cross-border business regulation, Reid is frequently called upon to provide commentary and analysis for television news channels, international newspapers, and trade publications. He is also the lead author and editor of The CFIUS Book.   About Scott Maberry As an international trade partner in Governmental Practice, J. Scott Maberry counsels clients on global risk, international trade, and regulation. He is also a past co-chair of the Diversity and Inclusion Working Group for the Washington D.C. office, serves on the firm's pro bono committee, and is a founding member of the Sheppard Mullin Organizational Integrity Group.  Scott's practice includes representing clients before the U.S. government agencies and international U.S. Department of Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), the Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry & Security (BIS), the Department of Commerce Import Administration, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Department of State Directorate of Defense Trade Controls (DDTC), the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), the International Trade Commission (ITC), and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS). He also represents clients in federal court and grand jury proceedings, as well as those pursuing negotiations and dispute resolution under the World Trade Organization (WTO), North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and other multilateral and bilateral agreements. A member of the World Economic Forum Expert Network, Scott also advises the WEF community in the areas of global risk, international trade, artificial intelligence and values.   Contact Information Michael Zhang Reid Whitten Scott Maberry Resources Executive Order on Addressing United States Investments in Certain National Security Technologies and Products in Countries of Concern Treasury Department Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking   Previous episodes featuring Reid Whitten: https://www.sheppardmullin.com/notabene-447 https://www.sheppardmullin.com/notabene-356 https://www.sheppardmullin.com/notabene-278 Thank you for listening! Don't forget to SUBSCRIBE to the show to receive two new episodes delivered straight to your podcast player every month. If you enjoyed this episode, please help us get the word out about this podcast. Rate and Review this show on Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, Google Podcasts or Spotify. It helps other listeners find this show. This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not to be construed as legal advice specific to your circumstances. If you need help with any legal matter, be sure to consult with an attorney regarding your specific needs.

In this episode, Jim Lewis talks to Shannon Corless, the Assistant Secretary for the Office of Intelligence and Analysis (OIA) at the Department of Treasury. They discuss the role of OIA in the broader federal government, economic and financial security, financial intelligence, and more.

Hello, and welcome to episode 70 of the Financial Crime Weekly Podcast, I'm Chris Kirkbride. It's been a busy week this week, with plenty across sanctions, fraud, money laundering and cyber-attack news. Let's crack on. As usual, I have linked the main stories flagged in the podcast in the description. These are: Blackberry, Global Threat Intelligence Report: Actionable and Contextualized Intelligence to Increase Your Cyber Resilience.Council of the European Union, Statement by the High Representative on behalf of the EU on the alignment of certain third countries concerning restrictive measures against cyber-attacks threatening the Union or its Member States.Council of the European Union, Belarus: EU adopts new round of individual sanctions over continued human rights abuses and imposes further targeted measures in response to involvement in Russia's military aggression against Ukraine.European Commission, Russia's illegal war of aggression against Ukraine: EU agrees to extend the scope of sanctions on Belarus to fight circumvention.European Commission, Russia's illegal war of aggression against Ukraine: EU agrees to extend the scope of sanctions on Belarus to fight circumvention (press release).European Public Prosecutor's Office, Lithuania: Seven indicted for fraud involving livestock farming and wellness centre.European Public Prosecutor's Office, Germany: Eight indicted in connection with €80 million VAT fraud involving luxury cars.Financial Action Task Force, Jurisdictions under Increased Monitoring (i.e. "grey list").Financial Action Task Force, The United Arab Emirates' progress in strengthening measures to tackle money laundering and terrorist financing.Financial Conduct Authority, Financial watchdog wins civil case against Ponzi-like care home investment scheme. Judgment in the case: Financial Conduct Authority v Forster and Others [2023] EWHC 1973 (Ch).International Monetary Fund, Iceland: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Anti-Money Laundering/Combating the Financing of Terrorism.Joint Money Laundering Steering Group, JMLSG Guidance – Consultation – Cryptoasset transfers.Joint Money Laundering Steering Group, Cryptoassets Transfers (‘Travel Rule') Sector 22 Amended Guidance.Joint Money Laundering Steering Group, JMLSG publishes a revision to Part I Paragraph 5.3.89.National Cyber Security Centre, Sixth Annual Report: Active Cyber Defence.Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation, Financial Sanctions Notice: Russia (31/07/2023).Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation, Current list of designated persons: Russia.Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation, General Licence: GTLK Companies and their Subsidiaries – Insolvency related payments and activities (INT/2023/3263556).Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation, General Licences List.Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation, Publication of Mali Sanctions Regulations (press release).Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation, Mali Sanctions Regulations.Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation, Russian Oil Services ban: Guidance.Serious Fraud Office, Notice of Discontinuance: R v Bluu Solutions Limited and Tetris Projects Limited.The FCPA Blog, Creating an international anti-corruption court is a noble idea, but can it work?The Guardian, Former minister urges UK to back international anti-corruption court.UK government, National Risk Register 2023.US Department of Justice, Springfield Business Owner Pleads Guilty to $14 Million Fraud Scheme.US Department of Justice, Monroe County Man Charged With Committing Over $2.2 Million In Covid-19 Pandemic Fraud.US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control, U.S. Treasury Targets Four Officials in Bosnia and Herzegovina for Undermining the Dayton Peace Agreement.US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control, Treasury Designates Leaders and Financial Facilitators of ISIS and al-Qa'ida Cells in Maldives.US Securities and Exchange Commission, SEC Obtains Emergency Relief to Halt Utah-Based Company's Crypto Asset Fraud Scheme Involving 18 Defendants.

In this episode, Dr. Thomas Franklin and Dr. Marina Nikhinson of the Mindwork Group join host Scott Maberry to explore what the best companies in the world are doing to promote the mental health and well-being of their people.   What We Discussed in This Episode What does a mentally healthy organization look like?  What do great organizations do to support the mental health and well-being of their people? Why is it sometimes difficult to access high-quality mental health care? What about business executives and law partners? They sometimes need help too. What is a typical psychological profile of people with leadership roles in large organizations? What mental health needs do these individuals typically have? What is burnout? What are really good organizations doing to combat this issue?   About Thomas Franklin, M.D. A national leader in psychiatry and psychoanalysis, Dr. Thomas Franklin served as Medical Director of the Retreat at Sheppard Pratt, the premiere program of the prestigious Sheppard Pratt Hospital. He was appointed a member of the American College of Psychiatrists and the Group for the Advancement of Psychiatry.   Dr. Franklin is board-certified in psychiatry and addiction medicine and is a graduate of the Washington Psychoanalytic Institute and the Johns Hopkins Carey School of Business.  In addition to serving as a faculty member of the University of Maryland School of Medicine faculty, he also serves as a discussion group leader for the American Psychoanalytic Association. Dr. Franklin is a co-founder of Mindwork Group, where he is President and Chief Executive Officer of MindWork Group. He has extensive experience treating professionals, executives, business owners, political leaders, and their families. He has been extensively quoted in the areas of substance use disorders, personality disorders, and mental health policy.     Marina Nikhinson Dr. Marina Nikhinson is a board-certified psychiatrist with advanced training in psychodynamic psychotherapy, mentalization-based therapy, dialectical behavior therapy, and the treatment of mood and personality disorders. She is a master-trainer in the general psychiatric management of borderline personality disorder. In her role as attending psychiatrist at the Retreat at Sheppard Pratt, Dr. Nikhinson became a recognized leader in the treatment of people with complex psychiatric, psychological, and substance use disorders. She is a graduate of the Washington-Baltimore Center for Psychoanalysis. A faculty member at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, she is also a Fellow of the American Psychiatric Association. Dr. Nikhinson is a co-founder of the MindWork Group,  serving as its Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. In her distinguished career, she has cared for an international cadre of patients, including business owners, political leaders, and executives of Fortune 100 companies.   About Scott Maberry As an international trade partner in Governmental Practice, J. Scott Maberry counsels clients on global risk, international trade, and regulation. He is also a past co-chair of the Diversity and Inclusion Working Group for the Washington D.C. office, serves on the firm's pro bono committee, and is a founding member of the Sheppard Mullin Organizational Integrity Group. Scott's practice includes representing clients before the U.S. government agencies and international U.S. Department of Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), the Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry & Security (BIS), the Department of Commerce Import Administration, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Department of State Directorate of Defense Trade Controls (DDTC), the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), the International Trade Commission (ITC), and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS). He also represents clients in federal court and grand jury proceedings, as well as those pursuing negotiations and dispute resolution under the World Trade Organization (WTO), North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and other multilateral and bilateral agreements. A member of the World Economic Forum Expert Network, Scott also advises the WEF community in the areas of global risk, international trade, artificial intelligence and values.   Contact Information Dr. Thomas Franklin Dr. Marina Nikhinson J. Scott Maberry   Resources MindWork Group   Thank you for listening! Don't forget to SUBSCRIBE to the show to receive two new episodes delivered straight to your podcast player every month. If you enjoyed this episode, please help us get the word out about this podcast. Rate and Review this show on Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, Google Podcasts or Spotify. It helps other listeners find this show. This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not to be construed as legal advice specific to your circumstances. If you need help with any legal matter, be sure to consult with an attorney regarding your specific needs.  

Recorded: September 14, 2021    Join us for a virtual conversation with USAID's COVID Task Force. We look forward to hosting this event with their team to update the USAID partner community on their important work. This is also a great opportunity for new USAID partners to learn more about this crucial initiative. Learn more about USAID's COVID response here: https://www.usaid.gov/coronavirus Panelist Bios: Shanda Steimer, Director, Center for Nutrition at USAID Shanda Steimer is a career member of the United States Foreign Service with more than 20 years of development experience. Ms. Steimer has worked for USAID since 2002 and is currently detailed to the USAID COVID-19 Task Force, serving as the Pillar Lead for Programs and Strategic Planning. She is a health officer by background and has served in Mali, Nepal, Pakistan, Uganda, Washington and Zambia, managing a diverse range of USAID portfolios primarily in health, but also in education, Feed the Future, Energy, Food for Peace and the Environment. Before joining the Task Force, Ms. Steimer was the Director for the Center for Nutrition in the Bureau for Resilience and Food Security. Prior to joining USAID, Ms. Steimer worked for various international organizations, the private sector and served as a Peace Corps Volunteer in Guinea. Ms. Steimer has a Master of Public Health degree in maternal and child health from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Stephanie Fugate, Program Operations, COVID-19 Task Force at USAID Stephanie Fugate is currently the Program Operations/Management/Budget Lead for the USAID COVID Task Force (on detail from her role as Division Chief, Professional Development and Training). With over 15 years in international development, in both the public and private sector, she has served as Branch Chief/Supervisory Contracting Officer with USAID's Special Initiatives and Development Partners division, and Contracting Officer with USAID's Bureau of Democracy, Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance. She also held the role of USAID's first Coordinator for the Acquisition and Assistance Innovation Lab and remains a USAID Agency Innovation Advocate (AIA) to this day. Previously she held Contracting and Program Officer roles with the U.S. Department of Treasury's Office of Technical Assistance/Revenue Administration and Policy team which sits within the Treasury's International Affairs bureau where she was assigned to the Africa and Caribbean regions. Prior to joining the public sector, she worked for Chemonics International, Inc. where she was a Business Development Manager for the Africa region focused mainly on Eastern and Southern Africa. Ms. Fugate is a member of the NCMA Board of Advisors and holds a BA in International Studies from the University of Missouri-Columbia and a MA in International Commerce and Policy from George Mason University. Chuck Pope, A&A Strategy Lead, COVID-19 Task Force at USAID Charles S. “Chuck” Pope is the Senior Regional Advisor for the Middle East at USAID. Prior to that, he served as Chief of Operations in the Global Health Bureau providing senior leadership to the COVID-19 Response and current and future Supply Chain programming. Previous to that, he served the bureau as Deputy Assistant Administrator leading policy, programs, planning, innovation and systems. He started his career overseas in Russia as a Peace Corps volunteer attached to Moscow City Administration (Zelenograd Prefecture) working on NGO development. Afterwards, he went to work for IREX in Central Asia on the State Department's Internet Access and Training Program. IREX would later promote Chuck to Regional Director of the Caucasus overseeing all programs in the region. Peace Corps subsequently hired him as Administrative Officer to restart the program in Uzbekistan, which had been closed following 9/11. The program would grow to become one of the largest Peace Corps posts, with Chuck also serving a stint as acting Country Director. After his tour, the Peace Corps put Chuck in charge of training new Administrative Officers for overseas assignments. During this time, he also served the agency as the Financial and Administrative Officer of the Hurricane Katrina Relief efforts, the historic deployment of the Peace Corps domestically. Chuck joined USAID's Foreign Service in 2007 and has served in Russia, Afghanistan, Tanzania and India. Prior to public service, Chuck grew up on his family's farm in Kansas and was an accomplished athlete, winning collegiate national championships as both a player and a coach, and garnering all-American accolades at the junior college level before going on to start at Baylor University as center on the football team.   ABOUT THE HOST:   The podcast is hosted by Mike Shanley, Founder and CEO of Konektid International and AidKonekt Data, the leading USAID partner support firms that help clients to grow their USAID funding portfolios. Mike has nearly two decades of experience in working with USAID projects and funding opportunities. His USAID funding expertise has been recognized by the largest aid and development associations, partners, and conferences, including by USAID, Devex, British Expertise International, AidEx, and by the Society for International Development-US where he also serves as Board Member.   Websites: Konektid International: www.konektid.com AidKonekt Data: https://www.aidkonekt.com/usaid-biz-dev Connect with Mike Shanley: https://www.linkedin.com/in/konektid-usaid-specialists/

In this episode, we speak with Lisa Fine of Pearson PLC, and co-host of the Great Women in Compliance podcast. We discuss how companies can maintain vibrant compliance programs in an increasingly complex world.   What We Discussed in This Episode: How do the best companies assess business risk and legal risk together? How does a deep understanding of the organization's culture help in creating the compliance program? How do compliance professionals stand their ground even while empathizing with the business? What are the pros and cons of using outside counsel for compliance investigations? How can outside attorneys add value and help with business strategy? How do you ensure compliance training programs are effective? How do you empower ethical decision-making in an organization? What are some takeaways from your book, “Sending the Elevator Back Down: What We've Learned From Great Women in Compliance”? What should we all be doing to help others in our professional communities?   About Lisa Fine Lisa Fine is a compliance leader with extensive experience in compliance strategy, including risk management and mitigation, internal investigations, and implementing and growing compliance programs.  As Global Head of Investigations and Fraud for Pearson, the world's leading learning company, she is involved in all aspects of the ethics and compliance program, including developing policies, risk assessment training, communications, and due diligence.   In addition to co-hosting the “Great Women in Compliance” podcast, where women compliance practitioners are interviewed and discuss their experiences, advice and substantive expertise, Lisa also co-authored “Sending the Elevator Back Down: What We've Learned From Great Women in Compliance.” She has spoken at conferences in the United States and Europe and regularly consults with and mentors other women in the field of compliance and those starting their careers   About Scott Maberry As an international trade partner in Governmental Practice, J. Scott Maberry counsels clients on global risk, international trade, and regulation. He is also a past co-chair of the Diversity and Inclusion Working Group for the Washington D.C. office, serves on the firm's pro bono committee, and is a founding member of the Sheppard Mullin Organizational Integrity Group.  Scott's practice includes representing clients before the U.S. government agencies and international U.S. Department of Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), the Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry & Security (BIS), the Department of Commerce Import Administration, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Department of State Directorate of Defense Trade Controls (DDTC), the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), the International Trade Commission (ITC), and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS). He also represents clients in federal court and grand jury proceedings, as well as those pursuing negotiations and dispute resolution under the World Trade Organization (WTO), North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and other multilateral and bilateral agreements.  A member of the World Economic Forum Expert Network, Scott also advises the WEF community in the areas of global risk, international trade, artificial intelligence and values.   Contact Information  Lisa Fine  J. Scott Maberry   Resources:   Great Women in Compliance  Sending the Elevator Back Down: What We've Learned From Great Women in Compliance.   Thank you for listening! Don't forget to SUBSCRIBE to the show to receive two new episodes delivered straight to your podcast player every month. If you enjoyed this episode, please help us get the word out about this podcast. Rate and Review this show on Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, Google Podcasts, Stitcher or Spotify. It helps other listeners find this show. This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not to be construed as legal advice specific to your circumstances. If you need help with any legal matter, be sure to consult with an attorney regarding your specific needs.  

In this episode, Sheppard Mullin attorneys Melissa Eaves and Ray Marshall join host Scott Maberry to explore how the best companies in the world are navigating between directly conflicting regulatory guidance on Environmental, Social and Governance initiatives.   What We Discuss in this Episode: What is the SEC doing regarding Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) investing right now? What are state legislatures and Attorneys General doing? How do these enforcement contradict each other, and what should companies do? What should companies be doing to reduce the potential for ESG-related enforcement actions? How does "greenwashing" open the door to civil litigation? What steps should companies and investors take to mitigate risk in this complicated environment?   About Ray Marshall Ray Marshall is Of Counsel in the Governmental Practice in Sheppard Mullen's San Francisco office, where his practice focuses on White Collar and Investigations, Fiduciary Duties, and Environmental, Social & Governance issues. Ray represents clients in both complex business litigation and white-collar defense. He has conducted a wide array of internal investigations and company inquiries, including cases alleging insider trading, stock options backdating, securities fraud, accounting irregularities, antitrust violations, public corruption, FCPA and other corporate and individual wrongdoing. He has represented clients in civil, criminal and administrative proceedings brought by governmental authorities, including the Department of Justice and the offices of various U.S. Attorneys, State Attorneys General and District Attorneys. In addition to serving on Sen. Dianne Feinstein's Judicial Advisory Committee for the Northern District of California, Raymond also serves as an adviser to the American Law Institute on the Model Penal Code Sentencing Project. He is past-President of the ABA Retirement Fund Board of Directors, a past member of the ABA Standing Committee on Federal Judiciary, and former president of both the State Bar of California and the Bar Association of San Francisco. In 2004 and 2007, he was appointed by Chief Justice Ronald M. George to chair the California Supreme Court's Advisory Task Force on Multijurisdictional Practice. In addition to his professional affiliations, Ray is extremely active in community affairs, serving on the boards of the Giffords Law Center, the Equal Justice Society, the United Negro College Fund, and HomeBase/The Center for Common Concerns. In March 2009, he argued on behalf of five of the leading civil rights groups in the country (Asian Pacific American Legal Center, California State Conference of the NAACP, Equal Justice Society, Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund, NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund) before the California Supreme Court, arguing that allowing Proposition 8 (a proposition which sought to outlaw gay marriage) to stand could be detrimental to other minority groups who could easily become the targets of initiative campaigns seeking to take away their rights.   About Melissa Eaves Melissa Eaves is Special Counsel in the Governmental Practice in Sheppard Mullen's Los Angeles office. Melissa currently focuses her practice on complex civil litigation, fraud, investigations white collar criminal defense and False Claims Act litigation. She has substantial experience in compliance investigations, fiduciary counseling, ESG, American with Disabilities Act, FTC, SEC and TVPRA/human trafficking litigation. Melissa has successfully represented numerous individuals and entities in connection with a wide range of federal and state investigations and prosecutions. In civil litigation, she has successfully represented both clients in both state and federal court. In addition to complex litigation and white collar defense work, Melissa handles internal investigations for companies. She is an experienced and skilled investigator, handling investigatory matters involving whistleblower claims, harassment and workplace misconduct, criminal misconduct, and healthcare fraud. She has also worked with governmental agencies such as the OIG, DOJ, FTC, SEC, and HHS in connection with such investigations.  Melissa was part of the team that recently won a complete defense victory in a human trafficking case, and she has also obtained complete defense verdicts in trials involving ADA claims. In addition, she has represented the California Insurance Commissioner in the Executive Life Insurance Company, First Capital and Mission Insurance Group insolvencies and reinsurance litigation, involving over 300 reinsurers worldwide, representing recoveries in excess of $1.3 billion. Melissa has substantial litigation experience in both state and federal courts, including the U.S. Supreme Court, enforcing judgments abroad and supervising of domestic and foreign outside counsel.   About Scott Maberry As an international trade partner in Governmental Practice, J. Scott Maberry counsels clients on global risk, international trade, and regulation. He is also a past co-chair of the Diversity and Inclusion Working Group for the Washington D.C. office, serves on the firm's pro bono committee, and is a founding member of the Sheppard Mullin Organizational Integrity Group. Scott's practice includes representing clients before the U.S. government agencies and international U.S. Department of Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), the Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry & Security (BIS), the Department of Commerce Import Administration, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Department of State Directorate of Defense Trade Controls (DDTC), the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), the International Trade Commission (ITC), and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS). He also represents clients in federal court and grand jury proceedings, as well as those pursuing negotiations and dispute resolution under the World Trade Organization (WTO), North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and other multilateral and bilateral agreements. A member of the World Economic Forum Expert Network, Scott also advises the WEF community in the areas of global risk, international trade, artificial intelligence and values.   Contact Information: Melissa Eaves Raymond Marshall J. Scott Maberry   Resources: Goldman Sachs SEC Settlement (2022)  BNY SEC Settlement (2022)  Texas AG Letter ISS Response Glass Lewis Response BlackRock Letter Kentucky AG Opinion Kentucky AG Letter Washington DC AG Letter ClientEarth Lawsuit Against Shell  BNP Paribas Case   Thank you for listening! Don't forget to SUBSCRIBE to the show to receive two new episodes delivered straight to your podcast player every month. If you enjoyed this episode, please help us get the word out about this podcast. Rate and Review this show on Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, Google Podcasts, Stitcher or Spotify. It helps other listeners find this show. This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not to be construed as legal advice specific to your circumstances. If you need help with any legal matter, be sure to consult with an attorney regarding your specific needs.  

Hear veteran risk manager, advisor and professor Clifford Rossi's perspective on recent turmoil in the banking system, on where risk management fell short, and the profession's readiness for future challenges. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and subsequent events inevitably invited comparisons with past crises. It was widely assumed that the damages of 2023 would be more contained than those of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. But they could similarly leave a long tail, with economic and regulatory repercussions well into the future. A clear parallel between 2008 and 2023 is the spotlight placed on risk management. In the intervening years, the risk function in banking and financial services grew in prestige and responsibility – and its failings were documented as having played a role in SVB's demise. Drawing from regulatory experience early in his career, to senior risk and credit positions at major financial institutions, to his current professorship at the University of Maryland, Cliff Rossi has lived through multiple crises while observing the effectiveness and evolution of risk management. GARP Risk Intelligence's CRO Outlook columnist, Rossi has been especially critical of boards of directors' risk governance, one of many timely subjects covered in his podcast conversation with GARP contributing editor Jeff Kutler. SPEAKER'S BIO Clifford Rossi (PhD) is an Executive-in-Residence and Professor of the Practice at the Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland. He is also the author of GARP's monthly “CRO Outlook” column. Prior to entering academia, Rossi had nearly 25 years of experience in banking and government, having held senior executive roles in risk management at several of the largest financial services companies. His most recent position was Managing Director and Chief Risk Officer for Citigroup's Consumer Lending Group, where he was responsible for overseeing the risk of a $300+B global portfolio of mortgage, home equity, student loans and auto loans with 700 employees under his direction. While there he was intimately involved in Citi's TARP and stress test activities. He also served as Chief Credit Officer at Washington Mutual (WaMu) and as Managing Director and Chief Risk Officer at Countrywide Bank. Previous to these assignments, Rossi held senior risk management positions at Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. He started his career during the thrift crisis at the U.S. Treasury's Office of Domestic Finance and later at the Office of Thrift Supervision working on key policy issues affecting depositories. Rossi was also an adjunct professor in the Finance Department at the Robert H. Smith School of Business for eight years and has numerous academic and nonacademic articles on banking industry topics. Rossi is frequently quoted on financial policy issues in major newspapers and has appeared on such programs as C-SPAN's Washington Journal and CNN's Situation Room. His book for risk practitioners and graduate students, A Risk Professional's Survival Guide, was published in 2014 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. His research interests are in financial and nonfinancial risk management, risk governance and analytics and climate risk.

In this episode, Paul Kim, a partner in Sheppard Mullin's Corporate and Securities Practice Group, joins host Scott Maberry to discuss recent developments in international policy and law impacting the U.S.-South Korea relationship, including the business significance of President Yoon Suk Yeol's state visit, the North Korean nuclear threat, and efforts to contain China.   What We Discussed in this Episode: What message is Korea sending by bringing the largest Korean companies on the State visit to the United States? What is the state of the North Korean nuclear threat and the allied response? What are some other key aspects of the comprehensive strategic alliance between the U.S. and South Korea? What are the allies doing to contain China from both a security and economic perspective? Where does South Korea's relationship with Japan stand? What's South Korea's position on the Russian invasion of Ukraine? What discussions will the United States and Korea have regarding electric vehicles, semiconductors, and batteries? What is the South Korean perspective on the CHIPs Act and Inflation Reduction Act? What is the South Korean business climate right now? What are the hottest issues for global companies doing business in South Korea and Asia? The last time you were our guest in early 2020 (Episode 69), you made a very accurate prediction regarding a novel virus then circulating in China. Are there any other events you see on the horizon?   About Paul Kim A partner in Sheppard Mullin's Corporate and Securities Practice Group, Paul Kim also serves as Office Managing Partner and representative, foreign legal consultant for the firm's Seoul office. Paul's practice focuses on cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A), private equity, venture capital and securities transactions, restructurings and multi-jurisdictional disputes. He has more than 25 years of experience representing a diverse range of clients operating in numerous industries and in many countries, practicing in New York for over 20 years before relocating to Seoul. His clients include private equity funds and investment managers, industrial and manufacturing companies, pharmaceutical and biotech companies, and commercial banks and other financial institutions. Paul has particularly broad experience representing Korean, European and U.S. clients in complex multi-jurisdictional transactions, restructurings and other matters, and has been recognized on multiple occasions by Chambers Global, Chambers Asia Pacific and Asian Legal Business.   About Scott Maberry As an international trade partner in Governmental Practice, J. Scott Maberry counsels clients on global risk, international trade, and regulation. He is also a past co-chair of the Diversity and Inclusion Working Group for the Washington D.C. office, serves on the firm's pro bono committee, and is a founding member of the Sheppard Mullin Organizational Integrity Group. Scott's practice includes representing clients before the U.S. government agencies and international U.S. Department of Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), the Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry & Security (BIS), the Department of Commerce Import Administration, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Department of State Directorate of Defense Trade Controls (DDTC), the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), the International Trade Commission (ITC), and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS). He also represents clients in federal court and grand jury proceedings, as well as those pursuing negotiations and dispute resolution under the World Trade Organization (WTO), North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and other multilateral and bilateral agreements. A member of the World Economic Forum Expert Network, Scott also advises the WEF community in the areas of global risk, international trade, artificial intelligence and values.   Contact Information: Paul Kim J. Scott Maberry   Resources:  U.S. Legal Insights for Korean Businesses Nota Bene Episode 69 (02.12.2020): Asia Check In: The Coronavirus's Impact on Business, the Trilateral Summit, and Japan's Criminal Justice System with Paul Kim   Thank you for listening! Don't forget to SUBSCRIBE to the show to receive two new episodes delivered straight to your podcast player every month.   If you enjoyed this episode, please help us get the word out about this podcast. Rate and Review this show on Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, Google Podcasts, Stitcher or Spotify. It helps other listeners find this show. This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not to be construed as legal advice specific to your circumstances. If you need help with any legal matter, be sure to consult with an attorney regarding your specific needs.  

As oil data in 2023 shows that second-half tightening is less likely, it may be time to alter the narrative around the expected market for the remainder of the year.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This recording references country/ies which are generally the subject of selective sanctions programs administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies. Any references in this recording to entities, debt or equity instruments, projects or persons that may be covered by such sanctions are strictly incidental to general coverage of the issuing entity/sector as germane to its overall financial outlook, and should not be read as recommending or advising as to any investment activities in relation to such entities, instruments or projects. Users of this recording are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities in relation to any sanctioned country/ies are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions.----- Transcription -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley's Global Commodity Strategist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll discuss how the 2023 global oil market story is changing. It's Tuesday, May the 9th at 4 p.m. in London. Over the last several months, the dominant narrative in the oil market was one of expected tightening in the second half. Although supply outstripped demand in the first quarter, the assumption was that the market would start to tighten from the second quarter onwards and be in deficit once again by the second half, which would lead to a rise in price. At the start of the year, this was also our thesis for how 2023 would play out. However, as of early May, it seems this narrative needs to change. The expectation of second half tightness was largely based on two key assumptions. One, that China's reopening would boost demand, and two, the Russian oil production would start to decline. By now, however, it seems that these assumptions have run their course and are in fact behind us. On China, both the country's crude imports and its refinery runs were already back at all time highs in March, leaving little room for further improvement. On Russia, oil production has fallen from recent peaks, but probably only about 400,000 barrels a day. From here, we would argue that it's becoming increasingly unlikely it will fall much further. The EU's crude and product embargoes have been in place for some time now. Russian oil that flows now will probably continue to flow. That raises the question whether the second half tightening thesis can still be sustained. After OPEC announced production cuts at the start of April, we argued that OPEC was mostly responding to a weakening in the supply demand outlook. Perhaps counterintuitive, but we lowered oil price forecasts already significantly at the time those cuts were announced. Still, with those cuts, we thought that the second half balances would be about 600,000 barrels per day undersupplied, and that that would be enough to keep Brent in the mid-to-upper $80 per barrel range. New data from this past month, however, has further chiseled away at this deficit, which we now project at just 300,000 barrels a day. This is in effect getting very close to a balanced market, and that limits upside to oil prices, at least in the near term. Even this modest undersupply now mostly depends on seasonality in demand and OPEC production cuts. However, when the second half arrives, oil prices will start to reflect expected balances for early 2024. In the first half of '24, seasonality may turn the other way and OPEC production cuts are scheduled to come to an end. Our initial estimate of 2024 balances showed the market in a small surplus, especially in the first half. Looking beyond the next 12 months, oil prices still have long term supportive factors. Demand is likely to continue to grow over the rest of the decade, while investment levels have been low for some time now. However, the structural and the cyclical don't always align, and this is one of those moments. The second half tightness thesis does not appear to be playing out, and we don't see much tightness in the period just beyond that either. We expect Brent oil prices to stay in their recent $75 to $85 per barrel range, probably skewed towards the bottom end of that range later this year when the market enters a period of seasonal softness again and OPEC's voluntary cuts come to an end. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Hello, and welcome to episode 56 of the Financial Crime Weekly Podcast, I'm your host, Chris Kirkbride. It's been a slightly quieter week for financial crime this week, which is always good for someone who is at their busiest point in the academic year. Still, there are stories on sanctions, where we have seen a little more activity, money laundering, and interesting themes coming out of coordinated cyber-attacks. Let's crack on. As usual, I have linked the main stories flagged in the podcast in the description. These are: British American Tobacco, BAT reaches agreement with U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).Insuring Cyber Podcast, Episode 60.The Guardian, UK company set up in name of top Putin official in Ukraine.The Guardian, UK ‘should impose sanctions on human rights abusers in Sudan' – report.UK Companies House, Grainholding Ltd.UK Financial Conduct Authority, Financial watchdog puts banks on alert in fight against money laundering via the Post Office.UK Financial Conduct Authority, Regulation of Digital Assets in the UK.UK Government, UK and international partners announce new sanctions on Iranian regime (press release).UK Government, Guidance: Who is subject to financial sanctions in the UK?UK Government, Russia sanctions: guidance.UK Government, Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, The UK Sanctions List: Guidance.UK Government, Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation, Financial sanctions, ISIL (Da'esh) and Al-Qaida organisations.UK Government, Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation, Financial Sanctions Notice: Iran (Human Rights).UK National Crime Agency, Suspicious Activity Reports.UK National Crime Agency, New SAR Portal - How to Register and Sign in (YouTube).UK National Crime Agency, How to Submit a SAR using the new SAR Portal (YouTube).UK National Crime Agency, Money laundering cash couriers smuggled £100 million in suitcases.US Department of Justice, United States Obtains $629 Million Settlement with British American Tobacco to Resolve Illegal Sales to North Korea, Charges Facilitators in Illicit Tobacco Trade.US Department of Justice, New York Attorney Pleads Guilty To Conspiring To Commit Money Laundering To Promote Sanctions Violations By Associate Of Sanctioned Russian Oligarch.US Department of Justice, Former Public Official and California Contractor Sentenced for Bid Rigging and Bribery.US Department of Justice, Former Arkansas State Senator Sentenced for Role in Bribery Scheme.US Department of Justice, Twelfth Defendant Charged in International Money Laundering Conspiracy Apprehended in New York.US Department of Justice, North Korean Foreign Trade Bank Representative Charged in Crypto Laundering Conspiracies.US Department of the Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control, Treasury Sanctions Officials of Iranian Intelligence Agency Responsible for Detention of U.S. Nationals in Iran.US Department of the Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control, Treasury Sanctions Senior Iranian Officials Overseeing Violent Protest Suppression and Censorship. 

Hello, and welcome to episode 53 of the Financial Crime Weekly Podcast, I'm your host, Chris Kirkbride. It's been another bumper week for financial crime this week, so my hopes that there would be an ease down in work were short-lived. Lots of news on everything, except for sanctions, with a round-up of cyber-attack news at the end. These are the links to the principal documents mentioned in the podcast: BBC, ChatGPT: Mayor starts legal bid over false bribery claim.Clyde & Co, Directors' and Officers' Liability Survey 2023.European Central Bank, Money laundering must be tackled at European level.European Data Protection Board, EDPB adopted letter to EU institutions on data sharing for AML/CFT purposes (press release).European Data Protection Board, EDPB letter to the European Parliament, the Council, and the European Commission on data sharing for AML-CFT purposes in light of the Council's mandate for negotiations.Gambling Commission, Gambling business TGP Europe fined £316,250 (press release).Gambling Commission, Notice of Regulatory Sanction (TGP Europe Limited).National Cyber Security Centre, 3CX DesktopApp security issue.National Cyber Security Centre, Free Cyber Action Plan.National Cyber Security Centre, Check your cyber security.UK Financial Conduct Authority, FCA and ASA team up with Sharon Gaffka to warn fin-fluencers of risks of promoting illegal ‘get rich quick' schemes (press release).UK Financial Conduct Authority, FCA and ASA team up to warn finfluencers of risks of promoting illegal ‘get rich quick' schemes (infographic).UK Financial Conduct Authority, Business Plan 2023/24.UK Financial Conduct Authority, Three individuals convicted and sentenced to a combined 24 and a half years for 'all-or-nothing' investment fraud.UK Food Standards Agency, CEO Statement on meat fraud investigation.UK Food Standards Agency, Chief Executive's message to stakeholders – Our meat fraud investigation.UK Ministry of Justice, Scammers using Ministry of Justice telephone numbers.UK Ministry of Justice, Fraud and scams (Legacy link).UK National Crime Agency, Money laundering couple caught smuggling criminal cash during lockdown.UK Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation, Financial sanctions, Cyber.UK Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation, Financial sanctions, Russia.UK Serious Fraud Office, SFO secures sentences totalling over 13 years for executives behind $500m bank fraud.US Department of Justice, Boston Man Convicted of Money Laundering Conspiracy.US Department of Justice, Former Start-Up CEO Charged In $175 Million Fraud.US Department of Justice, Man Pleads Guilty to $3.1M Medicare Fraud Scheme.US Department of Justice, Texas Laboratory Agrees to Pay $5.9 Million to Settle Allegations of Kickbacks to Third Party Marketers and Unnecessary Drug Tests.US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control, Treasury Sanctions Facilitator for Attempted Arms Deals Between North Korea and Russia.

In this episode, futurist Gerd Leonhard, founder of The Futures Agency, joins host Scott Maberry to discuss the future, including the role of futurism in corporate strategy, and how multinational companies should be planning for the “good future.”   What We Discussed in This Episode: What are the tools for futurism, and how do they apply to running a global business? Why is it accurate to say “the future is now?" How did the Good Future Project come about? What is it? What are some of the mindsets or impediments that prevent good insight into the future? What can be done to reduce or mitigate the fear mindset? What are the links between your first profession, music, and your current calling as a futurist? What's the role of futurism in thinking about global trade, globalization, and the green revolution? For large multinational companies, how should the C-suite be planning for the future we're going to experience?   About Gerd Leonhard  Gerd Leonhard is a globally recognized and top-rated futurist, humanist, author, film producer, and TV host. Pursuing the concept of "practical wisdom," he forgoes the all-too-common techno-optimism in favor of progressive humanism, balancing exponential technological progress with human needs. Gerd zeroes in on what the future holds for humanity and how we will create the future we want (rather than just the one we could have). A musician by origin and a digital music entrepreneur in the 1990s, Gerd is the author of five books, including the bestseller The Future of Music and his latest work, Technology vs. Humanity, a ground-breaking exploration of the mega-shifts that will radically alter society, the economy, values, and even human biology. He is also considered one of the most remarkable and unique keynote speakers in the world today, having so far appeared - virtually and in-person - before a combined audience of over 2.5 million people in 50+ countries. About Scott Maberry As an international trade partner in Governmental Practice, J. Scott Maberry counsels clients on global risk, international trade, and regulation. He is also a past co-chair of the Diversity and Inclusion Working Group for the Washington D.C. office, serves on the firm's pro bono committee, and is a founding member of the Sheppard Mullin Organizational Integrity Group. Scott's practice includes representing clients before the U.S. government agencies and international U.S. Department of Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), the Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry & Security (BIS), the Department of Commerce Import Administration, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Department of State Directorate of Defense Trade Controls (DDTC), the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), the International Trade Commission (ITC), and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS). He also represents clients in federal court and grand jury proceedings, as well as those pursuing negotiations and dispute resolution under the World Trade Organization (WTO), North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and other multilateral and bilateral agreements. A member of the World Economic Forum Expert Network, Scott also advises the WEF community in the areas of global risk, international trade, artificial intelligence and values.   Contact Information: Gerd Leonhard J. Scott Maberry   Resources:  The Good Future Project Books by Gerd Leonhard   Thank you for listening! Don't forget to SUBSCRIBE to the show to receive two new episodes delivered straight to your podcast player every month.   If you enjoyed this episode, please help us get the word out about this podcast. Rate and Review this show on Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, Google Podcasts, Stitcher or Spotify. It helps other listeners find this show.   This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not to be construed as legal advice specific to your circumstances. If you need help with any legal matter, be sure to consult with an attorney regarding your specific needs.

2023 has just begun and it began with so much news on the crypto front. To discuss the most recent Coinbase settlement and future trends in the crypto space, joining me today is David Carlisle, the Vice President of Policy and Regulatory Affairs at Elliptic. Before joining Elliptic, David worked for the US Department of the Treasury, including in the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), where he was involved in the design and implementation of US financial and economic sanctions programmes involving countries such as Myanmar and Iran. In subsequent roles, David worked in the Treasury's Office of Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes (TFFC) and advised senior Treasury officials on a wide range of topics related to sanctions, money laundering and terrorist financing. Let's now begin this exciting episode:Check out Elliptic's 2023 Regulatory Outlook Report here:https://www.elliptic.co/resources/regulatory-outlook-report-2023Support the show

Hello, and welcome to this week in financial crime. I'm your host, Chris Kirkbride. The world of financial crime continues to have a gentle movement into 2023. Nevertheless, some interesting stories this week concerning Abramovich, the sanctioned Russian oligarch, some interesting fraud news, especially in light of last week's story about possible removal of cyber insurance, and we end with a good range of money laundering stories from around the world. Let's crack on with it.These are the links to the principal documents mentioned in the podcast:Forbes, Russian Billionaire Roman Abramovich Owns 16 Yachts And Vessels, 10 More Than Previously Known.The Guardian, Leak reveals Roman Abramovich's billion-dollar trusts transferred before Russia sanctions.U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), Treasury Sanctions Suppliers of Iranian UAVs Used to Target Ukraine's Civilian Infrastructure.

Over a year ago, the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) released guidance on best practices for cryptocurrency businesses as they navigate sanctions in the crypto space. As part of that guidance, OFAC recommended that companies in the virtual currency industry develop a sanctions compliance program and conduct routine and, if appropriate, ongoing risk assessments to identify potential sanctions issues. This compliance program would include the use of blockchain intelligence and geolocation tools. In this session, TRM Talks is joined by sanctions compliance experts with robust experience in building out sanctions compliance programs for crypto businesses to discuss: The ins and outs of how to approach implementing a sanctions compliance program Recent enforcement actions and subsequent key takeaways What are the next big issues in crypto-related sanctions compliance we should consider? This podcast is hosted by TRM Labs, a blockchain analytics company. We work with crypto businesses, financial institutions and government agencies to monitor, detect and investigate fraud and financial crime in crypto. Learn more about our mission to build a safer financial system for billions of people here: https://www.trmlabs.com/about

Hello, and welcome to this week in financial crime. I'm your host, Chris Kirkbride. After a fallow week, there has been an uptick in activity again. Lots of reports published this week, more sanctions activity, plenty on the cyber risks to keep all of us focused, but especially compliance people, and Glencore receives its sentence for bribery for its guilty plea in relation to the English prosecution.These are the links to the principal documents mentioned in the podcast: BBC News, Cyber-attacks on small firms: The US economy's 'Achilles heel'?.Chartered Trading Standards Institute (CTSI), Rogue Traders cash in on victims as the cost-of-living crisis continues.Civil Market Abuse Claim, Financial Conduct Authority v Konstantinos Papadimitrakopoulos and Dimitris Gryparis [2022] EWHC 2792 (Ch).Financial Conduct Authority, FCA prosecutes five individuals for role in 'all-ornothing' investment scheme.Insolvency Service, Directors banned in care home investment scheme.Insolvency Service, East Midlands directors banned for Bounce Back Loan abuse.Institute of Chartered Accountants of Scotland, Anti-Money Laundering Supervision Annual Report.Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Brothers in Arms: The Value of Coalitions in Sanctions Regimes.Serious Fraud Office, Glencore to pay £280 million for ‘highly corrosive' and ‘endemic' corruption.Solicitors' Regulation Authority, Anti-Money Laundering annual report 2021-2022.The Guardian, UK adds two Roman Abramovich ‘business associates' to Russia sanctions list.UK government press release, UK sanctions Russian steel and petrochemical tycoons funding Putin's war.UK House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, The cost of complacency: illicit finance and the war in Ukraine: Government Response to the Committee's Second Report.UK National Cyber Security Centre, Helping you with Cyber Security – a webinar for Small Organisations.UK National Cyber Security Centre, Annual Review 2022 and Executive Summary.UK Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation, Consolidated List of Financial Sanctions Targets in the UK.UK Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation, General Licence INT/2022/2339452.UK secondary legislation, The Sanctions (Damages Cap) Regulations 2022.U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), Sanctions against 15 Khordad Foundation.Wolfsberg Group, Wolfsberg Financial Crime Principles for Correspondent Banking.

Tornado Cash is an open source, decentralized cryptocurrency tumbler that was introduced in 2019. The service allows users to mix identifiable Ethereum cryptocurrency funds with others, thus obscuring the trail back to the funds original source. On August 8, 2022, the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned Tornado Cash, making it illegal for United States citizens, residents, and companies to receive or send money through the service. OFAC claims that Tornado cash is responsible for laundering more than $7 billion in virtual currencies, including money believed to be stolen by North Korea and criminal groups.As opposed to sanctioning people, organizations, or particular addresses associated with rogue regimes, OFAC has sanctioned the code of Tornado Cash itself, causing critics to claim that OFAC has exceeded its statutory authority .In this podcast, experts discuss OFAC's blacklisting of Tornado Cash, potential litigation from opponents, and the broader implications for financial privacy, national security, and free speech.Featuring:Paul Brigner, Head of U.S. Policy and Strategic Advocacy, Electric Coin Company.Michael Mosier, General Counsel, Espresso SystemsKevin Werbach, Professor of Legal Studies and Business Ethics at the Wharton School, University of PennsylvaniaModerator: J.W. Verret, Associate Professor of Law, Antonin Scalia Law School, George Mason University

Tornado Cash is an open source, decentralized cryptocurrency tumbler that was introduced in 2019. The service allows users to mix identifiable Ethereum cryptocurrency funds with others, thus obscuring the trail back to the funds original source. On August 8, 2022, the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned Tornado Cash, making it illegal for United States citizens, residents, and companies to receive or send money through the service. OFAC claims that Tornado cash is responsible for laundering more than $7 billion in virtual currencies, including money believed to be stolen by North Korea and criminal groups.As opposed to sanctioning people, organizations, or particular addresses associated with rogue regimes, OFAC has sanctioned the code of Tornado Cash itself, causing critics to claim that OFAC has exceeded its statutory authority .Join our experts as they discuss OFAC's blacklisting of Tornado Cash, potential litigation from opponents, and the broader implications for financial privacy, national security, and free speech.Featuring:Paul Brigner, Head of U.S. Policy and Strategic Advocacy, Electric Coin Company.Michael Mosier, General Counsel, Espresso SystemsKevin Werbach, Professor of Legal Studies and Business Ethics at the Wharton School, University of PennsylvaniaModerator: J.W. Verret, Associate Professor of Law, Antonin Scalia Law School, George Mason University

What is the mission of the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Fiscal Service? How does the pandemic response compare to the recovery act response and what have we learned? How is Treasury's Office of Fiscal Service using innovative approaches to meet its critical mission? Join host Michael Keegan as he explores these questions and more with Dave Lebryk, Fiscal Assistant Secretary at the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

As globalization slows and companies begin to nearshore their supply chains, investors may be wondering what the costs and benefits are of bringing manufacturing back home.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This research references country/ies which are generally the subject of comprehensive or selective sanctions programs administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies. Any references in this report to entities, debt or equity instruments, projects or persons that may be covered by such sanctions are strictly informational, and should not be read as recommending or advising as to any investment activities in relation to such entities, instruments or projects. Users of this report are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities in relation to any sanctioned country/ies are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions.----- Transcript -----Welcome the Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Head of Global Thematic and Public Policy Research for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the intersection between U.S. public policy and financial markets. It's Wednesday, October 5th, at 10 a.m. in New York. We speak often here about the themes of slowing globalization, or slowbalization, and the shift to a multipolar world. It's important to understand these megatrends, as they will likely impact global commerce for decades to come and in many ways we cannot yet anticipate. But one impact we have anticipated is multinational companies spending money to shift their supply chains. Whereas globalization meant companies could focus on lowering their labor and transportation costs through 'just in time' logistics, 'just in case' logistics are the watchword of the multipolar world. Companies will have to invest money to nearshore or friend shore to protect their supply chains from seizing up due to geopolitical conflicts, be it war, such as Russia invading Ukraine leading to sanctions, or the proliferation of policies by Western governments, preventing companies from producing and/or sourcing sensitive technologies overseas. Now, we're increasingly seeing evidence that this dynamic is already at play. Take Apple, for example, which, according to the Wall Street Journal, recently released a supplier list showing that in September of 2021, 48 of its suppliers had manufacturing sites in the U.S., up from 25 just a year before. The article goes on to cite several semiconductor chip makers who have recently opened US based sites. One company recently agreed to invest as much as $100 billion in a semiconductor manufacturing facility in upstate New York. Another announced plans to invest $20 billion for chip factories in Ohio. So it's clear that companies are starting to respond to geopolitical incentives. The long term public policy benefits of these moves could prove to be quite sound, but in the short term they're a challenge to markets. These investments cost money and represent elevated costs relative to what these companies would have enjoyed had the geopolitical environment not become more challenging. That means investors have to price in yet another margin pressure on top of the ones our colleague Mike Wilson continues to highlight in U.S. equities, from labor costs and the fed hiking rates to engineer slower economic growth. So bottom line for investors, shifting to a new geopolitical world order may be necessary, but it will cost something along the way. And for the moment, that means extra pressure on a U.S. equity market that's already got its fair share. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague, or leave us a review on Apple Podcasts. It helps more people find the show.

This year has seen a sharp rally in the oil and gas markets, leading to high prices and a delicate balancing act for global supply and demand. Important note regarding economic sanctions. This research references country/ies which are generally the subject of selective sanctions programs administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies. Users of this report are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities in relation to any sanctioned country/ies are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Markets. I'm Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley's Global Commodity Strategist and the Head of the European Energy Research Team. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be giving you an update on global oil and the European gas market. It's Thursday, the 25th of August, at 4 p.m. in London. As the world emerged from COVID, commodities have rallied strongly. Between mid 2020 and mid 2022, the Bloomberg Commodity Index more than doubled, outperforming equities significantly and fulfilling its traditional role as an inflation hedge.However, this rally largely ran out of steam in June, even for oil. For nearly two years, the oil market was significantly undersupplied. For a while, storage can help meet the deficit, but at some point, supply and demand simply need to come into balance. If that can't happen via the supply side quick enough, it must happen via the demand side, and so the oil markets effectively searched for the demand destruction price.The price level where that happens can be hard to estimate, but in June we clearly got there. For a brief period, gasoline reached $180 per barrel and diesel even reached $190 a barrel. Those prices are difficult for the global economy to absorb, especially if you take into account that the dollar has been strengthening at the same time. With the world's central banks hiking interest rates in an effort to slow down the economy as well, oil demand has started to soften and prices have given up some of their recent strength.Now these trends can take some time to play out, possibly even several quarters. As long as fears of a recession prevail, oil prices are likely to stay rangebound. However, after recession comes recovery. There is still little margin of safety in the system, so when demand starts to improve again, there is every chance the strong cycle from last year repeats itself. This time next year we may need to ask the question, 'What is the demand destruction price?' once again.Now, one commodity that has defied all gravity is European natural gas. Over much of the last decade, Europe was accustomed to a typical natural gas price of somewhere between sort of $6 to $7 per million British thermal units. Recently, it reached the eye-watering level of $85 per MMBtu. On an energy equivalent basis, that would be similar to oil trading at nearly $500 per barrel.Now, the reason for this is, of course, the sharp reduction in supply from Russia. As the war in Ukraine has unfolded, Russia has steadily supplied less and less natural gas to Europe. Now total volumes have already fallen by around about 75%. Furthermore, Gazprom announced that flows through the critical Nord Stream 1 pipeline would temporarily stop completely later this month for maintenance to one of its turbines. In principle, this will only last three days, but the market is clearly starting to fear that this is a harbinger of a much longer lasting shutdown.These exceptional prices are already leading to large declines in demand. During COVID, industrial gas consumption in Europe fell only 2 or 3%. Last month, industrial gas use was already down 19% year-on-year. With these demand declines, Europe can probably manage with the reduced supply, but to keep demand lower for longer gas prices need to be higher for longer. The gas market has clearly noticed. Even gas for delivery by end 2024 is now trading at close to $50 per MMBtu, 10x the equivalent price in the United States.The full implications of all of this for the European economy going forward are yet to become clear, but we'll be sure to keep listeners up to date on the latest developments.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague, or leave us a review on Apple Podcasts. It helps more people find the show.

On August 8, 2022, the US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned Tornado Cash, citing allegations it helped North Korea's Lazarus hacker group launder millions of dollars worth of crypto proceeds stolen from various crypto projects over the past few years. Coin Center believe that OFAC has overstepped its legal authority by adding certain Tornado Cash smart contract addresses to the Specially Designated Nationals And Blocked Persons (SDN) List, potentially violating US Americans' constitutional rights to due process and free speech.Peter Van Valkenburgh, Director of Research at Coin Center, joined us for an in-depth look at how OFAC operates, why he believes this sanctioning represents an overreach, what's next for Tornado Cash, and what this means for the rest of the blockchain ecosystem.Topics covered in this episode:An overview of the Tornado Cash caseWhat is the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC)?How is it determined who gets on the OFAC list? What happens to you if you're on the list?Does this only apply to US Americans?How does one get removed from the list?What did Tornado Cash do wrong, and what should they have done?Is there an acceptable level of maliciousness within the system?Comparison to PGPWhy Tornado Cash was targeted over other privacy enhancing toolsThe reaction from the crypto ecosystemEpisode links:OFAC - The Office of Foreign Assets ControlCoin CenterTornado Cash on TwitterCoin Center on TwitterPeter on TwitterJoin the Epicenter team!Sponsors:Tally Ho: Tally Ho is a new wallet for Web3 and DeFi that sees the wallet as a public good. Think of it like a community-owned alternative to MetaMask. - https://epicenter.rocks/tallycashThis episode is hosted by Friederike Ernst. Show notes and listening options: epicenter.tv/458

In the past two years Emerging Market sovereign debt has seen rising risks given increased borrowing, higher interest rates and a greater number of defaults, leading investors to wonder, are we heading towards an EM debt crisis? Important note regarding economic sanctions. This research references country/ies which are generally the subject of comprehensive or selective sanctions programs administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies. Any references in this report to entities, debt or equity instruments, projects or persons that may be covered by such sanctions are strictly incidental to general coverage of the relevant Russian economic sector as germane to its overall financial outlook, and should not be read as recommending or advising as to any investment activities in relation to such entities, instruments or projects. Users of this report are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities in relation to any sanctioned country/ies are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the market. I'm Simon Waever, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of EM Sovereign Credit Strategy. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, today, I'll address the possibility of an emerging markets debt crisis. It's Friday, August 19th, 12p.m. in New York.The most frequent question I get from investors right now is, 'are we heading towards an EM debt crisis?' It's not unreasonable to ask this. After all, a lot of the ingredients that led to prior EM debt crises are in place today. First, EM countries have taken on a lot of debt, not just since the pandemic, but in the past ten years, meaning most countries are at or near multi-decade highs. Second, global central banks are quickly hiking rates, with the Fed in particular a key driver in tightening global financial conditions. Third, which is related, is that servicing and rolling over that debt has suddenly become much more expensive, driven not just by a stronger dollar, but also much higher bond yields. And then fourth, which is perhaps the most important one, is that today we are as close to an extended sudden stop in flows to EM as we have been in a long time. That means that many countries have lost access to markets, so that even if they were willing to pay up to borrow, there's just no demand.Markets are telling us the risks are rising as well. Outside of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the 2020 pandemic, you'd have to go back 20 years to find EM sovereign credit spreads trading as wide. And high yield credit spreads are much wider than investment grade spreads, so markets are differentiating already.Finally, just looking at actual sovereign defaults and restructurings, they're already higher than in recent history. We have had six in the past two years and now already three in 2022, namely Russia, Belarus and Sri Lanka.From here, there are likely to be more defaults, but three key points are worth making. One, the countries at risk now are very different to the prior debt crisis in EM. Two, none would be systemic defaults. And three, they would not all happen at the same time.Large countries like Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Indonesia and Malaysia don't seem to be at risk of defaulting. They are completely different to what they were 20 to 30 years ago. They're now inflation targeters, have mostly free-floating currencies, meaning imbalances are less likely to build up, have large effects reserves and have the majority of that debt in local currency.Instead, the concern now is mostly with the newer issuers that benefited from the abundant global liquidity in the past ten years. And by this I mean the frontier credits, many of which are in Africa, but also in Asia and Central America. And then it's key to actually look at who has upcoming Eurobond maturities, as not all countries do. But even among these credits, the International Monetary Fund stands ready to help and there are FX reserves that can be used. So, it's not clear to me that you're going to see multiple defaults and even if you were to see two or more defaults among them, they're very unlikely to be systemic.But, all in, while there's no denying that EM countries are facing debt sustainability issues, let's not paint all EM with the same brush. The nuances should make for some exciting years ahead for sovereign debt analysts and should also open up the potential for significant alpha within the asset class.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Webcast URL: https://knowledgewebcasts.com/know-portfolio/sanctions-trends-cle/ The U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) continues to administer and enforce strict scrutiny on U.S. and non-U.S. companies. Several settlement agreements have been noted in the past months that signal the broad reach of U.S. sanctions regulations. Concomitantly, the US government has continued to utilize economic sanctions to fight corruption and other criminal activity around the world. U.S. and non-U.S. companies alike engaged in global transactions must implement a rigorous and effective compliance program to mitigate legal liabilities, including for the transfer or the facilitation of the transfer of the proceeds of corruption. Join key thought leaders in OFAC and financial institution compliance Javier Coronado (Diaz Reus International Law Firm) and Stanley Foodman (Foodman CPAs and Advisors), as they provide a discussion of the latest and significant issues surrounding OFAC recent enforcement actions. This course will guide you in implementing necessary compliance measures to avoid risks and sanctions. For any more information please click on the webcast URL at the top of this description.

What is the mission of the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Fiscal Service? How does the pandemic response compare to the recovery act response and what have we learned? How is Treasury's Office of Fiscal Service using innovative approaches to meet its critical mission? Join host Michael Keegan as he explores these questions and more with Dave Lebryk, Fiscal Assistant Secretary at the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

What is the mission of the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Fiscal Service? How does the pandemic response compare to the recovery act response and what have we learned? How is Treasury's Office of Fiscal Service using innovative approaches to meet its critical mission? Join host Michael Keegan as he explores these questions […]

As Europe continues to curtail Russian gas imports, equity markets are preparing for further downturn in European economic growth, but there may be more risks yet to be priced in.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This research references country/ies which are generally the subject of comprehensive or selective sanctions programs administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies. Any references in this report to entities, debt or equity instruments, projects or persons that may be covered by such sanctions are strictly incidental to general coverage of the relevant Russian economic sector as germane to its overall financial outlook, and should not be read as recommending or advising as to any investment activities in relation to such entities, instruments or projects. Users of this report are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities in relation to any sanctioned country/ies are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions.-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Graham Secker, Head of Morgan Stanley's European Equity Strategy Team. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the two key issues that are dominating our current discussions with European equity clients, namely Russia gas supplies and the belated start to a new earnings downgrade cycle. It's Tuesday, July the 12th, at 2 p.m. in London. Over the last few months, we have been arguing that a curtailment of Russia gas imports represented the biggest risk to European equities and the main catalyst to push us down to our bear case scenario. While we are not yet ready to formally change our bull, base, or bear case index targets, recent news flow does suggest that risks remain skewed to the downside, and we note a further 17% downside from here to our bear case price target for MSCI Europe. Recent headlines about a reduction in Russia gas flows and the German government's move to level two of their emergency gas plan, has prompted our European economists to further lower their own GDP forecasts, and they now see a mild recession developing over the winter. However, with higher energy costs keeping inflation higher for longer, they make no changes to their European Central Bank forecasts and still expect European interest rates to move out of negative territory over the next few months. We have been expecting an EPS downgrade cycle to start in the third quarter, even before the recent rise in concerns around Russian gas supplies. While the realization of this risk event would likely drive a materially larger hit to profits, we note that European earnings revisions have already turned negative over the last couple of weeks, i.e. we are now seeing more analysts lowering EPS estimates than raising them. The sharp fall in equities over the last few months suggests that investors are already anticipating a sizable pullback in European profits. However, we do not think this means all of the bad news is already in the price. Rather, we note that a study of prior downturns suggests the stock markets tend to trough 2 to 3 weeks before earnings revisions bottom and that the minimum time duration between the start of a new downgrade cycle and this trough in earnings revisions is at least 3 months, but more often runs for over 6 months. In short, we are likely starting a 3 to 6 month earnings downgrade cycle and equities are unlikely to trough until we move towards the fourth quarter. Within the market, we expect the more defensive sectors to continue to outperform over the next couple of months, given their traditionally lower level of earnings volatility into a recession. The recent move lower in bond yields should also encourage some reinvestment into quality and growth stocks, and we have just raised luxury goods to overweight on this theme. In addition, the luxury sector should be a key beneficiary of the recent upturn in investor sentiment towards China. Luxury has a greater exposure to the China consumer than any other European sector. In contrast, we continue to recommend a more cautious stance on cyclicals, who don't traditionally start to outperform until the market itself troughs. Year to date, cyclical underperformance has been primarily driven by weakness in consumer facing stocks, reflecting the pressure on disposable income from high inflation. However, going forward, we expect to see greater underperformance from industrial cyclicals as weakness in end demand starts to move up the chain. These same companies are also likely to be the most adversely impacted by the disruption to Russia gas supplies, whether this be in terms of top line volumes, profit margins or both. For this reason, we are most cautious on stocks within the industrial, materials and autos sectors that also have a high degree of exposure to European end markets. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Michael Mosier (@M_Mosier) is the General Counsel at ESPRESSO Systems, a scaling & privacy solution for Web3 applications. Michael was formerly the first in-house Counsel at cryptocurrency analytics and investigations firm Chainalysis. Michael was previously Acting Director, as well as permanent Deputy Director & Digital Innovation Officer of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), a bureau of the Treasury Department. As Acting Director, he oversaw FinCEN's wide-ranging work to promote financial integrity and national security. As Digital Innovation Officer, he was dedicated to advancing FinCEN's engagement with emerging technology and financial innovation. Previously, Michael served as Associate Director at Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). Before joining Treasury, Michael was Deputy Chief in the Department of Justice's Money Laundering & Asset Recovery Section. He also served a tour at the White House National Security Council as Director for Transnational Organized Crime. In this episode, we discuss his career in public service, what FinCEN is and why it's important, and what the future of privacy looks like in America. Show highlights: [1:50] Genesis Block [7:00] FinCEN [14:00] Money Laundering & Crypto [23:00] Privacy [29:00] Espresso Systems [35:00] General Counsel Role [44:00] Habits & Life Advice Thanks for listening! If you enjoyed this episode, please consider leaving a review. You can subscribe to our newsletter to stay updated on the latest episodes. Disclaimer: Jacob Robinson and his guests are not your lawyer. Nothing herein or mentioned on the Law of Code podcast should be construed as legal advice. The material published is intended for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only. Please seek the advice of counsel, and do not apply any of the generalized material to your individual facts or circumstances without speaking to an attorney.

Forecasts for China and other Emerging Markets have continued on a downtrend, extending last year's underperformance, meaning investors might want to look into regions with a more favorable outlook.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This research references country/ies which are generally the subject of selective sanctions programs administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies. Users of this report are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities in relation to any sanctioned country/ies are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions.-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jonathan Garner, Chief Asia and Emerging Markets Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley Research. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be talking about the key reasons why we recently reiterated our cautious stance on overall emerging market equities and also China equities. It's Friday, April 22nd at 8:00 p.m. in Hong Kong. Now, emerging market equities are underperforming again this year, and that's extending last year's underperformance versus developed market equities. And so indeed are China equities, the largest component of the Emerging Market Equities Index. This is confounding some of the optimism felt by some late last year that a China easing cycle could play its normal role in delivering a trend reversal. We have retained our cautious stance for a number of reasons. Firstly, the more aggressive stance from the US Federal Reserve, signaling a rapid move higher in US rates, is leading to a stronger US dollar. This drives up the cost of capital in emerging markets and has a directly negative impact on earnings for the Emerging Markets Index, where around 80% of companies by market capitalization derive their earnings domestically. Secondly, China's own easing cycle is more gradual than prior cycles, and last week's decision not to cut interest rates underscores this point. This decision is driven by the Chinese authorities desire not to start another leverage driven property cycle. Meanwhile, China remains firmly committed to tackling COVID outbreaks through a lockdown strategy, which is also weakening the growth outlook. Our economists have cut the GDP growth forecast for China several times this year as a result. Beyond these two factors, there are also other issues at play undermining the case for emerging market equities. Most notably, the strong recovery in services spending in the advanced economies in recent quarters is leading to a weaker environment for earnings growth in some of the other major emerging market index constituents, such as Korea and Taiwan. They have benefited from the surge in work from home spending on goods during the earlier phases of the pandemic. Meanwhile, the geopolitical risks of investing in emerging markets more generally have been highlighted by the Russia Ukraine conflict and Russia's removal from the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. So what do we prefer? We continue to like commodity producers such as Australia and Brazil, which are benefiting from high agricultural, energy and metals prices. We also favor Japan, which, unlike emerging markets, has more than half of the index deriving its earnings overseas and therefore benefits from a weaker yen. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Daniel Glaser is an expert in all things sanctions. As the former Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes in the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office under the Obama Administration, Glaser led the office that designed sanctions against North Korea and Iran, among other countries.He explains to News Not Noise the strategy behind the U.S.' sanctions against Russia, including sanctions against the country's oligarchs, banking systems, and energy sector. Plus, Glaser explains what's really going on with the superyachts that have been frozen under sanction. You can follow Jessica Yellin here:➤Instagram: instagram.com/jessicayellin​➤Twitter: twitter.com/jessicayellin➤Facebook: facebook.com/newsnotnoise➤YouTube: youtube.com/newsnotnoise➤Website: NewsNotNoise.com➤Newsletter: newsnotnoise.bulletin.com/Support this work:➤patreon.com/NewsNotNoiseJessica Yellin is the founder of News Not Noise, a channel dedicated to giving you news with real experts and providing facts, not panic attacks. Jessica is a veteran of network news, traveling the globe, covering conflict and crisis. A former Chief White House Correspondent for CNN, she reported from around the world and won awards. Now, Yellin uses her voice to break down the news, calmly and clearly for you -- free of punditry, provocation, and yelling.

As the European Central Bank prepares to meet, the war in Ukraine continues to add to uncertainty, forcing investors in Europe to adjust their expectations for the remainder of the year. Chief Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and Chief Europe Economist Jens Eisenschmidt discuss.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This research references country/ies which are generally the subject of selective sanctions programs administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies. Any references in this report to entities, debt or equity instruments, projects or persons that may be covered by such sanctions are strictly incidental to general coverage of the issuing entity/sector as germane to its overall financial outlook, and should not be read as recommending or advising as to any investment activities in relation to such entities, instruments or projects. Users of this report are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities in relation to any sanctioned country/ies are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions. ----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley's Chief Cross Asset Strategist.Jens Eisenschmidt And I'm Jens Eisenschmidt. Morgan Stanley's Chief Europe Economist.Andrew Sheets And today on the podcast we'll be talking about the outlook for Europe's economy amid possible rate hikes, business reopenings and the war in Ukraine. It's Thursday, April 7th at 3 p.m. in London.Andrew Sheets Jens, clearly we're dealing with a lot in Europe right now amid the Ukraine conflict and I want to get into that situation and the impacts on the economy. But given that the European Central Bank is meeting in just a few days and there is speculation about possible rate hikes, let's start there. Maybe you could give a bit of a background on what we expect the ECB is going to do.Jens Eisenschmidt Thanks a lot, Andrew. First of all, let me say that we don't expect any change at next week's meeting relative to what the ECB has been saying in March at their last meeting. They're essentially keeping all options open. They have started on a gradual exit from their very accommodative monetary policy. They have increased the pace of policy normalization at their last meeting, and we do not expect the ECB to change that roadmap now. Just as a reminder, the roadmap is asset purchases could end in Q3 and any interest rate hike would come sometime thereafter. And any decision on ending asset purchases and rate hikes is highly data dependent. And that really it takes us to the current situation. Inflation continues to surprise to the upside. We just had a 7.5 percentage point print in March, and this undoubtedly does increase the pressure on the ECB to act. At the same time, there are significant downside risks to the outlook for growth in the Euro area stemming essentially from the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and this puts a premium on treading very carefully with any changes to the monetary policy configuration, hence the emphasis on optionality, flexibility and gradualism by the ECB.Andrew Sheets Jens, when you talk about gradualism, that implies that the inflation that we're seeing in Europe is more temporary, is more transitory, isn't going to get out of hand. Can you talk a little bit about what is different at the moment between inflation in Europe and inflation in the U.S.?Jens Eisenschmidt I think there are a lot of technical aspects that indeed you could be looking at on that question, but I think it's sufficient for our purposes here really to focus on the key difference. In the U.S. there's a huge internal demand component to inflation. While the same is not true for the euro area, where most of the inflation, you could argue, largest part is imported through energy. Another difference is that the outlook for the economy is slightly different. While you would say that in the U.S., if you're talking about an overheated economy, you have a very tight labor market, it's very difficult to see, you know, some sort of self-correcting forces bringing down inflation, which is why the Fed is embarking on a relatively aggressive tightening cycle. Here in the euro area, there is, of course, growth we see in '22 in our base case but at the same time, we are far away from such an overheating situation and even we are here now relying increasingly on fiscal stimulus to keep the growth momentum going given the high energy prices that are coming, dampening growth. So I think the situation is fundamentally a different one.Andrew Sheets And so Jens, maybe digging more into that growth outlook. You mentioned this rise in energy prices. There is uncertainty over the war in Ukraine. And yet in your team's base case, we see GDP growth in Europe growing about 3% this year, which would be pretty good by the standards of the last decade. What's behind that overall outlook?Jens Eisenschmidt You're right. our base case has the euro area economy growing by 3% in '22 on the back of the ongoing recovery from the pandemic, 'reopening' in one word, which has lagged here relative to, say, the U.S., as well as due to the fiscal stimulus. But we see increasing headwinds emerging as you were just also referencing. We had this series of consumer confidence prints clearly affected by high inflation and the ongoing conflict, and we are watching attentively how this develops. Energy prices have skyrocketed. So, while we stick to our base call for now, we think that the balance of risks is slowly migrating to the downside. As for the ECB, the projections presented at their last meeting in March are more optimistic in terms of growth than ours. Now, clearly, if the ECB's view of the world prevails, so growth comes in better than we expect, we think the ECB will start to raise rates as early as September this year. Contrary to that, we think that incoming data will disappoint the ECB and this is why we have the first rate hike only in December. In any case, you can see the ECB is clearly on the path of policy normalization, the need for which is driven by the high inflation regime we are in and even the less favorable growth outlook won't change that fundamentally.Andrew Sheets Jens, given that we were discussing the ECB, I'd also like to talk about what higher interest rates mean in Europe. How do you think about that debate and do you see a scenario where the ECB might be quicker to take rates from negative to zero, but then pause at zero for a more extended period of time?Jens Eisenschmidt I think this is a fair question, given that the negative rate experiment, if you want to call it, is really unique in its scope in the Euro area. And there has been a lot of debate about the effect of negative rates on banks, and you can probably argue that revising or returning from negative to zero is a little bit of a different journey than just raising rates in positive territory like what the what the Fed is going to do or is about to do now. So I'd say while there are some merits in the argument that probably, you know, getting rid of negative rates in the front end will help banks and may be good for lending in some sense, I think overall, our assessment would be increasing rates is something that detracts from economic activity.Andrew Sheets So Jens, you know, you mentioned some of the risks around energy supply, and I think it's safe to say this is the single biggest area of questions for investors who are in Europe or are looking at Europe is, how would the region respond to either cutting off its imports of gas and oil from Russia voluntarily or this disruption happening involuntarily? What would a complete cut off of Russian oil and gas mean for Europe's economy? And how does somebody in your position even go about trying to model that sort of outcome?Jens Eisenschmidt So we have, of course, tried to get our head around this question and we we have published last week a note on exactly that issue. The typical approaches or the approaches that we have as economists here is really you look at the sectoral dependencies on on these flows of gas and oil, say. You make some assumptions and of course, it gives rise to ranges which are relatively wide. What we can say with certainty is that in a scenario of a complete cut off of Russian supplies in terms of oil and gas, we we are very, very likely in a recession in 22 in the euro area. And we are really talking about a significant recession risk. While only through higher energy prices, so oil going the direction of 150, but you know, other than that supply still flowing, we also see huge dampening impact on the economy with a shallow recession emerging not as bad as we would see in a total cutoff scenario. But I have to admit there's huge uncertainty.Jens Eisenschmidt But Andrew, I was going to ask you a similar question as a strategist looking at different asset classes around the world. What's your team's view on Europe?Andrew Sheets Well thanks, Jens. So I think, unfortunately, the outlook for Europe, as you mentioned, has deteriorated since the start of the year. This terrible conflict in Ukraine has introduced additional uncertainty and binary risks to Europe around energy security that are difficult for investors to price and to discount. So, we've lowered our price target for European equities, which now leaves very limited upside versus current prices. And I think the region is now less attractive than something like Japan, for example, where I think you still have some of the same positive arguments that apply to Europe. The valuations are low. The currency is weak. Investors, I do not think are overly positioned in the region, but with less risk around aggressive central bank policy and with less risk around energy security. So for those reasons, we now think Japan is going to be outperforming market on a on a global basis.Andrew Sheets So Jens, all that said, the war in Ukraine is a wild card for our forecasts. What are the developments or indicators that you and your team are going to be watching?Jens Eisenschmidt We are really dependent on what's happening in the political sphere, given that the cut off of energy supplies will be either a decision by Russia or by the EU to no longer accept delivery of any gas or oil or coal. And obviously, this is a political process for which you have many ingredients, so you would want to watch these ingredients and some of which are essentially in the conflict itself. So I think we are attentively watching the developments that the conflict is taking. And there for instance, the news flow coming out of potential war crimes that certainly has not helped the case of energy supplies flowing freely. So there is a discussion right now in the European Union to restrict import of coal. And I think it's exactly these sort of developments that you have to be watching. Another space that we attentively watch is energy markets because high energy prices are so detrimental for the growth outlook. And might remind you, we have one scenario, our so-called bear scenario, which sees energy prices almost as high as we have seen them or higher a little bit maybe as we have seen them in early March. That is a scenario which would get us very, very close to recessionary territory. So, in some sense, it's a situation where we have to watch the energy markets as much as we have to watch the political scene and see how this conflict evolves.Andrew Sheets Well, clearly a lot that we'll need to follow. Jens, thanks for taking the time to talk.Jens Eisenschmidt Great speaking with you, Andrew.Andrew Sheets And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

As oil and gas prices rise, governments and investors must weigh investment in clean energy initiatives and new capacity in traditional energy commodities. Head of North American Power & Utilities and Clean Energy Research Stephen Byrd and Head of North American Oil and Gas Research Devin McDermott discuss.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This research references country/ies which are generally the subject of comprehensive or selective sanctions programs administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies. Any references in this report to entities, debt or equity instruments, projects or persons that may be covered by such sanctions are strictly informational, and should not be read as recommending or advising as to any investment activities in relation to such entities, instruments or projects. Users of this report are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities in relation to any sanctioned country/ies are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions.-----Transcript-----Stephen Byrd: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Stephen Byrd, Morgan Stanley's Head of North American Power and Utilities, and Clean Energy Research. Devin McDermott: And I'm Devin McDermott, Head of Morgan Stanley's North American Oil and Gas Research. Stephen Byrd: And today on the podcast, we'll be discussing the key debate around energy security and energy transition amid the Ukraine Russia conflict. It's Tuesday, March 29th, at 9 a.m. in New York. Stephen Byrd: So, Devin, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has, among other concerns, really put a spotlight on energy supply and demand. I want to get into this perceived tension between energy security, that is making sure there's enough supply to meet demand, and the transition to clean energy. But first, maybe let's start with the backdrop. There's been a lot of discussion around higher energy prices. This is a world you live in every day, and I wondered if you could paint us a picture of both oil and natural gas supply and demand globally. Devin McDermott: Yeah, certainly, Stephen, and it's definitely been a dynamic market here over the last several years, coming out of COVID and the price declines that we saw then and the sharp recovery that we've been in now for about a year and a half across the energy commodity complex. If we start with oil first, we had record demand destruction in the second quarter of 2020 around global lockdowns, industrial activity slowing and along with that, oil prices broke negative for the first time in history. And then coming out of that, we've had the combination of a few factors that drove prices higher. The first has been demand has been on a very strong recovery path since that bottom in the second quarter of 2020, growing alongside people getting out again, aviation starting to pick up, the economy growing on the back of the stimulus that was injected over the past few years around the world, not just in the US. And then constrained supply, and that constrained supply comes from a mix of different factors, but the biggest of which is a reduction in investment around the world. The other factor is decarbonization goals, in particular with the global oil majors, which are big investors in global oil and gas capacity, and they've put their marginal dollar increasingly into low carbon initiatives, New Energy's platforms, renewables, driving decarbonization goals across their global footprint. Now, shifting over to the gas side, gas is a fascinating market. Globally, it's fairly regionally disconnected historically, but we've had this big investment over the past decade in liquefied natural gas or LNG that's really brought these regional markets together into one global picture. And we've been on, up until COVID, a declining path on prices. LNG projects take many years to build, they're expensive, they have long paybacks, and they were first to get chopped when companies cut capital budgets to preserve liquidity back in 2020, but demand was still growing through that timeframe. So it pushed us into this period of supply shortfall and higher prices. And actually, last year, on three separate occasions, we set new all time highs for global non-U.S. natural gas prices, and that recovery path and period of stronger for longer prices has persisted here into 2022. And even prior to Russia Ukraine, it was something that we thought would persist for at least the next several years. Stephen Byrd: You know, it's fascinating before the Russia-Ukraine conflict we already had, you know, tight markets, rising pricing. Now we really need to dig into the Russia-Ukraine conflict and all the impacts. Maybe let's just start Devin with, sort of, how big of a player Russia is in terms of oil and gas, and what the impact is of any current or future sanctions against Russia. Devin McDermott: Russia is one of the world's largest producers of oil and also one of the world's largest producers of natural gas. And to put some numbers around that, Russia represents about 10% of the world's oil supply, about half of that gets exported to the rest of the world. And they represent about 17% of the world's natural gas supply, about 7 of that gets exported to the rest of the world. These are big numbers. And if you look at Europe specifically, about 30% of their gas needs are coming from Russia on pipeline gas right now. So any disruptions to those flows have significant impacts to the global oil and gas market on top of this already tight backdrop. Stephen Byrd: And Devin I guess as we think about Europe, there's tremendous focus, as you point out Russia is a major player in energy and a major exporter. And I wonder if you could just talk to the current situation and what do you think would be feasible in terms of satisfying energy demand as Europe thinks about looking for other sources of energy? Devin McDermott: Yeah, it's a good question, Stephen and our European energy team has done a lot of work around this and they think that because of the events that have happened so far, not including any potential incremental sanctions or disruption of supply, that we'll lose about a million barrels a day of Russian oil here over the next several months, starting in April through the balance of this year. And again, just to put that in the context, that's about 10% of Russian supply, about 1% of the world's supply on a normalized pre-COVID basis. Now, some of the disruption in flows to Europe will be bought by other countries. You've seen India and China step in and pick up some of this Russian crude that's no longer going to Europe, but it's not going to fill the entire gap. So it leaves us tighter in the oil market than we were just a few weeks ago. On the natural gas side, it'll be a gradual pivot away from Russian pipeline gas within the European market toward a range of different things, one of which is LNG liquefied natural gas. But, as I mentioned before, that market was already in a shortfall, meaning there was not enough supply to meet demand prior to this. So this transition away from Russian gas is going to require substantial investment and take a long time, 5 to 10 years plus, to carry out. It means that these high prices that we're seeing likely have some sustainability to them. Devin McDermott: Stephen, that brings me to a question that I wanted to ask you on the clean energy side. Do you think that we might see a greater policy, and even energy consumer push, to clean energy both in the US and globally on the back of these elevated commodity prices and what's going on in Russia and Ukraine at the moment? Stephen Byrd: Yeah, Devin, we've been seeing a lot of interest among investors in exactly what is going to be the policy response both in Europe and the United States and elsewhere. And I'd say the EU has taken action already. The European Commission laid out a repower EU plan that is very aggressive in terms of additional renewables growth, additional growth in green hydrogen. We see quite a few European utilities and clean energy developers benefiting from the EU's increased emphasis and push towards more and more clean energy. And Rob Pulleyn, my colleague who covers European utilities and clean energy developers and is also a commodities strategist with respect to carbon, has been spending a lot of time on this, has laid out a suite of companies that would benefit quite significantly. There does seem to be a really big policy push in Europe. The United States is not clear. The real question is whether some version of build back better legislation will pass. We just don't know. Now, there is a reason to believe that there could be a compromise position in which some elements of a support for fossil fuel production are included, along with the whole suite of clean energy support that we already know is there. That said, it's possible that compromise simply won't be met. And in that case, we won't get any kind of additional support at the federal level. What's fascinating in the United States, though, is frankly, we don't necessarily need to see that support in order to see tremendous growth in clean energy, we are already seeing a big shift. And as we stand today, we think that clean energy in the United States will more than triple between now and 2030. It's one of the fastest growth rates globally. That is driven mostly by economics, in some cases by state policy, but mostly by economics. Devin McDermott: So, Stephen, I wanted to go back to this question on the tension between energy security and the energy transition. Is it an either or? Stephen Byrd: You know, Devin, we get asked that question a great deal, and I strongly believe the answer is no, those two ideas are not mutually exclusive. And in fact, what we're seeing is both the policy push as well as a business push in both directions. And a good example of that would be the U.S. Utilities that I cover. They are certainly very focused on deploying more renewable energy. And as a group, for example, we see that utilities will decarbonize in the United States by about 75% by 2030 off of 2005 baseline. So very aggressive decarbonization. At the same time, those utilities are very focused on ensuring grid reliability. Now, as we deploy more renewable energy, we're learning quite a few lessons. One lesson is the importance of more energy storage, so demand has been picking up a great deal for that. Another lesson we're learning is the importance of nuclear generation, we're learning that they're critical. They provide both reliability and also zero carbon energy. And in the U.S., we've had a very strong operational track record for our nuclear fleet. So we're learning lessons along the way, but what we're seeing is a push in both directions. Now, as you know, clean energy relative to the world that you live in, oil and gas, is still fairly small. It's going to take many years before clean energy really makes a meaningful impact in terms of global energy consumption. That said, for example, coal generation in places like the United States will decline over time and be replaced with mostly renewable energy, but also with some degree of natural gas generation to ensure reliability. So we're seeing really both ideas play out, and both investment theses are very rational, and we see really good opportunities on both of those ideas. Devin McDermott: And let's take it one step further and talk investment opportunities and themes on the back of this. As you think about the different subsets of clean energy and clean tech, where would you be focused for opportunities here? Stephen Byrd: You know, it's interesting. One group of stocks that we generally like are clean energy developers. And the reason we like those stocks is essentially this spread between what we're thinking of as inflationary traditional energy like oil and gas, and this deflationary dynamic of clean energy. One example is in places like California, the traditional utility costs to customers are rising very rapidly above 10% a year. If you look in the long term, the cost of our clean energy solutions are dropping anywhere from 5% a year, to 10, 15% per year. That's a tremendous economic wedge, and we think the developers will be able to essentially capture a lot of that spread. On the manufacturers side there are still some supply chain dynamics, which can cause some near-term margin compression that concerns us, in some cases. I would say another area of really interesting growth is green hydrogen, especially in Europe. A number of our companies are focused on that market as well. So those would be a couple of the buckets of opportunity that we see. Devin McDermott: Great. Stephen, thanks so much for the time today. It's really a fascinating topic and one that's unfolding right before our eyes today. Stephen Byrd: Well, it was great speaking with you, Devin. Devin McDermott: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please give us a review on Apple Podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

The U.S. and its allies have frozen the Central Bank of Russia's foreign currency reserves, leading to questions about the safety of FX assets more broadly and the centrality of the U.S. dollar to the international financial system.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This research references country/ies which are generally the subject of comprehensive or selective sanctions programs administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies. Any references in this report to entities, debt or equity instruments, projects or persons that may be covered by such sanctions are strictly informational, and should not be read as recommending or advising as to any investment activities in relation to such entities, instruments or projects. Users of this report are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities in relation to any sanctioned country/ies are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions.-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm James Lord, Head of FX and EM Strategy for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about global macro trends and how investors can interpret these trends for currency markets. It's Thursday, March 17th at 3:00 p.m. in London. Ever since the U.S. and its allies announced their intention to freeze the Central Bank of Russia's foreign exchange, or FX, reserves, market practitioners have been quick to argue that this would likely accelerate a shift away from a U.S. dollar based international financial system. It is easy to understand why. Other central banks may now worry that their FX reserves are not as safe as they once thought, and start to diversify away from the dollar. Yet, despite frequent calls for the end of the dollar based international financial system over the last couple of decades, the dollar remains overwhelmingly the world's dominant reserve currency and preeminent safe haven asset. But could sanctioning the currency reserves of a central bank the size of Russia's be a tipping point? Well, let's dig into that. The willingness of U.S. authorities to freeze the supposedly liquid, safe and accessible deposits and securities of a foreign state certainly raises many questions for reserve managers, sovereign wealth funds and perhaps even some private investors. One is likely to be: Could my assets be frozen too? It's an important question, but we need to remember that the U.S. is not acting alone with these actions. Europe, Canada, the UK and Japan have all joined in freezing the central bank of Russia's reserve assets. So, an equally valid question is: Could any foreign authority potentially freeze my assets? If the answer is yes, that likely calls into question the idea of a risk free asset that underpins central bank FX reserves in general, and not just specifically for the dollar and U.S. government backed securities. If that's the case, what could be the implications? Let me walk you through three. First would be identifying the safest asset. Reserve managers and sovereign wealth fund investors will need to take a view on where they can find the safest assets and not just safe assets, as the concept of the latter may have been seriously impaired. And in fact, the dollar and U.S. Government backed securities may still be the safest assets since the latest sanctions against the central Bank of Russia involve a broad range of government authorities acting in concert. A second implication is that political alliances could be key. These sanctions demonstrate that international relations between different states may play an important role in the safety of reserve assets. While the dollar might be a safe asset for strong allies of the U.S., its adversaries could see things differently. To put the dollar's dominance in the international financial system at serious risk, would-be challenges of the system would need to build strategic alliances with other large economies. Finally, is the on shoring of foreign exchange assets. Recent sanctions have crystallized the fact that there is a big difference between an FX deposit under the jurisdiction of a foreign government and one that you own on your home ground. While both might be considered cash, they are not equivalent in terms of accessibility or safety. So another upshot might be that reserve managers bring their foreign exchange assets onshore. One way of doing this is to buy physical gold and store it safely within the home jurisdiction. The same could be said of other FX assets, as reserve managers will certainly have access to printed U.S. dollars, Euros or Chinese Yuan banknotes if they are stored in vaults at home, though there could be practical challenges in making large transactions in that scenario. Bottom line, though, while these are all important notions to consider, in our view recent actions do not undermine the dollar as the safest global reserve asset, and it's likely to remain the dominant global currency for the foreseeable future. Thanks for listening! As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcasts app. It helps more people to find the show.

As global markets face a rise in commodity prices due to geopolitical conflict, investors in Asia and EM equities will want to keep an eye on the divergence between commodity exporters and importers.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This research references country/ies which are generally the subject of comprehensive or selective sanctions programs administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies. Any references in this report to entities, debt or equity instruments, projects or persons that may be covered by such sanctions are strictly informational, and should not be read as recommending or advising as to any investment activities in relation to such entities, instruments or projects. Users of this report are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities in relation to any sanctioned country/ies are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions.-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jonathan Garner, Chief Asia and Emerging Market Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley Research. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about geopolitical risk, commodity exposure, and how they affect our views on Asia and EM Equities. It's Tuesday, March the 15th at 8:00 p.m. in Hong Kong. The Russia Ukraine conflict is having a profound impact on the investment world in multiple dimensions. In this episode we focus on just two, commodity prices and geopolitical alignment, and what they mean for investors in Asia and emerging market equities. The major sanctions imposed by the U.S., U.K., European Union and their allies are focused not only on isolating Russia financially but depriving it, in some instances overnight and in others more gradually, of the ability to export its commodities. And Russia is a major producer of oil, natural gas, food and precious metals and rare minerals. Ukraine is also a major food exporter. In our coverage there's a sharp divergence between economies which are major commodity importers, and are therefore suffering a negative terms of trade shock as commodity prices rise, and those which are exporters and hence benefit. Major importers include Korea, Taiwan, China and India, all with more than a 5% of GDP commodity trade deficit. Meanwhile, Australia, Mexico, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, UAE and South Africa are all significant commodity exporters and stand to benefit. Australia's overall commodity trade surplus is the largest at 12% of GDP, and that is before the recent gains in price for almost everything which Australia produces and exports. Meanwhile, on the geopolitical risk front, we've been monitoring the pattern of voting on Russia's actions at the United Nations, where there have been both UN Security Council and General Assembly votes. Although none of the countries we cover actually voted with Russia on either occasion, two major countries, China and India, did abstain twice. South Africa abstained at the General Assembly. The UAE abstained in the Security Council, but then voted with the US and Europe in the General Assembly vote. This pattern of voting, in our mind, may have an impact in raising the equity risk premium, i.e. lowering the valuation, for China and to a lesser extent India in the current environment. All taken together, we are shifting exposure further towards commodity exporting markets and in particular those such as Australia, which are also geopolitically aligned with the major sources of global investor flows. We lowered our bear-case scenario values for China further recently and are turning incrementally more cautious on India. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

With multiple countries now imposing sanctions, investors in Russian government bonds and currencies will need to consider their options as the risk of default rises.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This research references country/ies which are generally the subject of comprehensive or selective sanctions programs administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies. Any references in this report to entities, debt or equity instruments, projects or persons that may be covered by such sanctions are strictly informational, and should not be read as recommending or advising as to any investment activities in relation to such entities, instruments or projects. Users of this report are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities in relation to any sanctioned country/ies are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions.-----Transcript-----James Lord: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm James Lord, Head of FX and EM strategy. Simon Waever: And I'm Simon Waever, Global Head of Sovereign Credit Strategy. James Lord: And on this special episode of Thoughts on the Market, we'll be discussing the impact of recent sanctions on Russia for bonds and currency markets. It's Friday, March 11th at 1:00 p.m. in London. Simon Waever: and 8:00 a.m. in New York. James Lord: So, Simon, we've all been watching the recent events in Ukraine, which are truly tragic, and I think we've all been very saddened by everything that's happened. And it certainly feels a bit trite to be talking about the market implications of everything. But at the same time, there are huge economic and financial consequences from this invasion, and it has big implications for the whole world. So today, I think it would be great if we can provide a little bit of clarity on the impact for emerging markets. Simon, I want to start with Russia itself. The strong sanctions put in place have really had a big impact and increasing the likelihood that Russia could default on its debt. Can you walk us through where we stand on that debate and what the implications are? Simon Waever: That's right, it's had a huge impact already. So Russia's sovereign ratings have been downgraded all the way to Triple C and below, which is only just above default, and that's them having been investment grade just two weeks ago. If you look at the dollar denominated sovereign bonds, they're trading at around 20 cents on the dollar or below. But I think it all makes sense. The economic resilience needed to support an investment grade rating goes away when you remove a large part of the effect reserves, have sanctions on 80% of the banking sector, and with the economy likely to enter into a bigger recession, higher oil prices help, but just not enough. For now, the question is whether upcoming payments on the sovereign dollar bonds will be made. And I think it really comes down to two things. One, whether Russia wants to make the payments, so what we tend to call the willingness. And two whether US sanctions allow it, so the ability. Clarifications from the US Treasury suggests that beyond May 25th, payments cannot be made. So, either a missed payment happens on the first bond repayment after this, which is May 27th or Russia may also decide not to pay as soon as the next payment, which is on March 16th. And of course, the reason for Russia potentially not paying would be that they would want to conserve their foreign exchange. And actually, we've already had some issues on the local currency government bonds, so the ones denominated in Russian ruble. James, do you want to go over what those issues have been? James Lord: That's absolutely right. Already, foreigners do not appear to have received interest payments on their holdings of local currency government bonds. There was one due at the beginning of March, and it looks as though, although the Russian government has paid the interest on that bond, the institutions that are then supposed to transfer the interest payments onto the funds of the various bondholders haven't done so for at least the foreign holders of that bond. Does that count as default? Well, I mean, on the one hand, the government can claim to have paid, but at the same time, some bondholders clearly haven't received any money. There's also another interest payment due in the last week of March, so we'll see if anything changes with that payment. But in the end, there isn't a huge amount that bondholders can really do about it, since these are local currency bonds and they're governed under local law. There isn't really much in the way of legal recourse, and there isn't really much insurance that investors can take out to protect themselves. The situation is a bit different for Russian government bonds that are denominated in US dollars, though. So I'd like to dig a little bit more into what happens if Russia defaults on those bonds. For listeners that are unfamiliar, investors will sometimes take out insurance policies called CDSs or credit default swaps just for this type of situation, and they've been quite a lot of headlines around this. So, Simon, I'd be curious if you could walk us through the implications of default there. Simon Waever: So it's like two different products, right? So you have the bonds there, it can take a long time to recover some of the lost value. I mean, either you actually get the economic recovery and there's no default or you then go to a debt restructuring or litigation. But then on the other hand, you have the CDS contracts, they're going to pay out within a few weeks of the missed bond payment. But it's not unusual to find disagreement on exactly what that payment will look like. And that payment is, we call it, the recovery value perhaps is a bit like the uncertainty that sometimes happens when standard insurance needs to pay out. But if we start with the facts, if there is a missed payment on any of the upcoming dollar or euro denominated bonds, then CDS will trigger. Local currency bonds do not count and the sovereign rating does not matter either. So far I think it's clear, the uncertainty has been around what bonds can actually be delivered into the contract, as that's what determines the recovery value. As it stands, sanctions do allow secondary trading of the bonds. There have been some issues around settlement, but hopefully that can be resolved by the time an auction comes around. The main question is then where that recovery rate will end up, and I would say that given the amount of selling I think is yet to come I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being among the lower recovery rates we've seen in E.M sovereign CDS. James Lord: Yeah, that makes sense on the recovery rates and the CDs. But I mean, clearly, if Russia defaults, there could be some big implications for the rest of emerging markets as well. And even if they don't default, I mean, there's been a lot of spill over into other asset classes and other emerging markets. How do you think about that? Simon Waever: So I try to think of it in two ways, and I would expect both to continue if we do not see a de-escalation in Ukraine. So first, it really impacts those countries physically close to Russia and Ukraine and those then with trade linkages, which mainly comes with agriculture, energy, tourism and remittances. And that points you towards Eastern Europe, Turkey and Egypt, for instance. Secondly, if we also then see this continued weaker risk backdrop, it would then impact those countries where investor positioning is heavier. But enough on sovereign credit, I wanted to cover currencies, too. The Russian central bank was sanctioned. What do you think that means for EM currencies? James Lord: Absolutely. The sanctions against the central Bank of Russia were really quite dramatic and have understandably had a very big impact on the Russian exchange rate. The ruble's really depreciated in value quite significantly in the last couple of weeks. I mean, during periods of market uncertainty, the central Bank of Russia would ordinarily sell its foreign exchange assets to buy Ruble to keep the currency under control. But now that's not really possible. It's led to a whole range of countermeasures from Russia to try and protect the currency, such as lifting interest rates from just under 10% to 20%. There have also been significant restrictions on the ability of local residents to move capital abroad or buy dollars, and on the ability of foreigners that hold assets in Russia to actually sell and take their money home. All of that's designed to protect the exchange rate and keep foreign exchange reserves on home soil. I think the willingness of the US to go down that road, as well as the authorities in Europe and Canada and other jurisdictions, it does raise some important questions about whether or not investors will continue to want to hold dollars and US government bonds as part of their FX reserves. Many reserve asset holders may wonder whether or not similar action could be taken against them. This has become a big debate in the market. Some investors believe that this turn of events could ultimately lead to some long-term weakness in the dollar. But I think it's also important to remember that yes the U.S. is not the only country that has done this, and it's probably the case that actually any country could potentially freeze the foreign assets of another central bank. And if that's the case, then I don't see having a materially negative impact on the dollar over the long term, as many now seem to be suggesting. But I think that's all we have time for today. So let's leave it there. Simon, thanks very much for taking the time to talk. Simon Waever: Great speaking with you, James. James Lord: As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcasts app. It helps more people to find the show.

With the rising cost of oil comes concerns around economic growth, but the distinction between the impact in Europe and the US is important, presenting both challenges and opportunities for investors.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This research references country/ies which are generally the subject of comprehensive or selective sanctions programs administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies. Any references in this report to entities, debt or equity instruments, projects or persons that may be covered by such sanctions are strictly informational, and should not be read as recommending or advising as to any investment activities in relation to such entities, instruments or projects. Users of this report are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities in relation to any sanctioned country/ies are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions.-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Head of Public Policy Research and Municipal Strategy for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the intersection between U.S. public policy and financial markets. It's Wednesday, March 9th at 1:00 PM in New York. This week, the United States closed its markets to imports of Russian oil as another measure in its response to the invasion of Ukraine. In anticipation of this announcement, the price of oil increased to as high as $129 per barrel, leading the average gas price in the United States to reach $4.25. Understandably, this has created a new burden for consumers and also has investors concerned about the macroeconomic impacts of higher fuel prices. Here's the latest thinking from our economists.We expect the downside to economic growth to be felt more in Europe than the United States. Unlike the US, Europe is a net importer of energy, which means when fuel prices go up they have to pay the price but don't earn the extra income from selling fuel at a higher price. Accordingly, our European economics team has revised down their expectations for GDP growth by nearly 1% for 2022. The impact in the US should be more muted, with our colleagues dropping their growth forecast by 30 basis points to 4.3%. Again, this is because the US enjoys substantial domestic energy production. So while higher prices at the pump might interfere with some consumer purchases, the income from those fuel purchases will drive consumption elsewhere in the economy. But these views aside, we have to acknowledge these conditions of elevated fuel and commodities prices drive uncertainty around the future economic and monetary impacts that markets will consider. Increasingly, clients want to discuss and debate the idea of stagflation, which is the combination of slowing growth and rising inflation, in both the US and Europe. And that sentiment could persist for some time, as our commodities research team thinks swings in the price of oil between $100 and $150 are possible in the near term. We'll have a lot more on that in future podcasts, but for now wanted to point out one tangible takeaway for investors: potential upside for equities in the energy exploration and production sector. Higher prices at the pump means potential for more revenue, yet the sector is valued at a discount to the S&P 500 when accounting for its prices relative to the cash flow of companies in that sector. Bottom line, the global economy is changing quickly, presenting both challenges and opportunities. We'll be keeping you in the loop on both. Thanks for listening! If you enjoy the show, please share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague, or leave us a review on Apple Podcasts. It helps more people find the show.

While the U.S. continues to see high valuations, rising inflation, and slow policy tightening, the story is quite different for many markets outside the U.S.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This research references country/ies which are generally the subject of comprehensive or selective sanctions programs administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies. Users of this report are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities in relation to any sanctioned country/ies are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions.-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends across the global investment landscape and how we put those ideas together. It's Friday, March 4th at 3 p.m. in London. While Russia's invasion of Ukraine has implications for financial markets, it has bigger implications for people. Hundreds of thousands have already been displaced, numbers which are likely to grow in the coming weeks. These refugees deserve our compassion, and support. To those impacted by this tragedy, you have our sympathies. And to those helping them, our admiration.Our expertise, however, is in financial markets, and so that's where we'll be focusing today. For those that are most negative on the market right now, the refrain is pretty simple and pretty straightforward. Assets are still expensive relative to historical valuations. Inflation is still high and it's still rising. And central banks are still behind the curve, so to speak, with lots of interest rate increases needed to bring monetary policy back in line with the broader economy. What I want to discuss today, however, was how different some of these concerns can look when you move beyond the United States. Let's start with the idea that assets are expensive. Now, this clearly applies to some markets, but less to others. Stocks in Germany, for example, trade at less than 12 times next year's earnings, Korean stocks trade at 10 times next year's earnings, Brazil, it's 8 times. And many currencies trade at historically low valuations relative to the U.S. dollar. Next up is inflation. While inflation is high in the U.S. and Europe, it's low in Asia, a region that does account for roughly 1/3 of the entire global economy. What do I mean by low? U.S. consumer prices have increased 7.5% Relative to a year ago. Consumer prices in China and Japan, in contrast, are up less than 1%. My colleague Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia Economist, notes that these differences aren't just some mathematical illusion, but rather reflect real differences in Asia's economy and policy response. Finally, there's the idea that central banks are behind the curve, so to speak. Now, the hindsight here is a little tricky, as the Federal Reserve and the ECB were dealing with enormous uncertainty around the scope of the pandemic for much of last year. But what's notable is that not all central banks took that path. Central banks in Chile, Brazil, Poland and Hungary, just to name a few, have been raising interest rates aggressively for the better part of the last 12 months. In times of crisis, markets often try to simplify the story. But the challenges facing global markets, from valuations, to inflation, to monetary policy, really are different. As events unfold, it will be important to keep these distinctions in mind.Thanks for listening. Subscribe to Thoughts on the Market on Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen, and leave us a review. We'd love to hear from you.

The recent crisis in Ukraine has caused a great deal of uncertainty in the economy and markets. To cut through the noise, we take a look at the three key questions we are hearing from investors.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This research references country/ies which are generally the subject of comprehensive or selective sanctions programs administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies. Any references in this report to entities, debt or equity instruments, projects or persons that may be covered by such sanctions are strictly informational, and should not be read as recommending or advising as to any investment activities in relation to such entities, instruments or projects. Users of this report are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities in relation to any sanctioned country/ies are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions.-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Head of Public Policy Research and Municipal Strategy for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bring you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the intersection between U.S. public policy and financial markets. It's Wednesday, March 2nd at 3pm in New York. As an analyst focusing on the interaction between geopolitical events and financial markets, I'm accustomed to dealing with uncertainties evolving at a rapid pace. But even by those standards, nothing in my career compares to the events of the past two weeks: the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions response by the US, the UK and Europe. To help cut through the noise, here's answers to the three most frequently asked questions by our investor clients. First, do sanctions mean higher energy costs? In the short term, the answer is likely yes. While sanctions on Russian banks currently permit payments for various energy commodities, there's still restrictions on, and disruptions to, their transportation. With Russia being a key producer of several commodities, including 10% of the world's oil, it's not surprising that global oil inventories have declined and the price of a barrel of oil is sitting above $100. This dovetails with the second question. Should we expect the Fed will shy away from hiking rates? In short, we don't think so, at least at the Fed's March meeting, but it certainly creates substantial uncertainty in the outlook. This conflict seems to be affecting both parts of the Fed's dual mandate in opposite directions. It risks dampening economic growth, but for the reasons we just described, it can also boost inflation. Accounting for both, our economists still expect the Fed to hike 0.25% in March but the conflict adds another layer to an already unprecedented level of complexity for the Fed. This is actually the key point for fixed income markets, in our view, where investors should prepare for ongoing volatility in Treasury and credit markets as the Fed may have to regularly tinker with their own assessment of growth and inflation. Finally, what are the long-term implications for investors? To answer this question, we refer you back to our framework for 'Slowbalization,' or the idea that companies will have to, in certain industries, spend more to adjust supply chains and exit certain businesses as governments create policies that prioritize economic and national security over short term profits. You can see how this trend may already be accelerating after the onset of the Ukraine crisis, with several multinational companies announcing they'll sell stakes in, exit joint projects with or pause sales to Russian companies. But some equity sectors may see upside. Defense and software, for example, could see bigger spending as governments reorient their budgets towards these efforts, most notably Germany announcing it will boost its defense spending to 2% of GDP. Of course, the situation remains fluid, and we'll continue to track it and keep you in the loop on what it means for the economy and markets. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague, or leave us a review on Apple Podcasts. It helps more people find the show.

As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to unfold, implications for the oil and gas sector in Europe are beginning to take shape.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This research references country/ies which are generally the subject of comprehensive or selective sanctions programs administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies. Any references in this report to entities, debt or equity instruments, projects or persons that may be covered by such sanctions are strictly informational, and should not be read as recommending or advising as to any investment activities in relation to such entities, instruments or projects. Users of this report are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities in relation to any sanctioned country/ies are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions.-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Martijn Rats, Global Commodity Strategist and Head of the European Energy Research Team for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a global perspective, I'll be talking about developments in the oil and gas sector amidst geopolitical tensions. It's Tuesday, March 1st at 2:00 p.m. in London. As the situation between Russia and the Ukraine continues to develop, implications for commodity markets are beginning to take shape. Russia is a major commodity producer, playing in an especially important role in providing energy for Europe through oil and natural gas imports. With a new round of sanctions announced over the weekend, the precise impact on prices remains to be seen, but we can begin to forecast the direction. First, there is no sign at this stage that, at least at the aggregate level, the flow of commodities has been impacted yet. All of the pipeline and tanker tracking data that we've seen suggests that they continue to be shipped. That shouldn't be too surprising, it's still early days and the sanctions that have been announced so far have been carefully crafted to reduce the impacts on energy flows from Russia. Second, trade patterns will nevertheless likely shift. We can already see this in the oil markets. European refiners are traditionally big buyers of Russian crudes, and even though technically they have continued to be able to buy these grades, they are increasingly reluctant to do so. There have been indications that ship owners are reluctant to send vessels to Russian ports, and that European buyers are uncertain about where sanctions will ultimately go. This is requiring increasingly large discounts. As many buyers already move away from Russian crudes, this also creates more demand for others, including North Sea crudes, which therefore drives up the price of Brent. Third, all of this is happening against the backdrop of tightness in both global oil markets and the European gas markets. We are seeing low and falling inventories, low and falling spare capacity and low levels of investment across both. At the same time, there is a healthy demand recovery ongoing as the world emerges from COVID. Given this tightness, even a modest disruption can have large price impacts. Now, with that in mind, risks to oil and gas prices are still firmly skewed higher, at least in the short term. Finally, I want to point at the growing tension in Europe between diversification and decarbonization. Several key politicians have said over the last several days that Europe should reduce its dependance on Russian oil and gas, and diversify its sources of supply. At the same time, Europe has set ambitious targets to decarbonize. Diversification requires investment in new supply, while decarbonization then requires that those supplies, in the end, will not be used. How that tension will be resolved is hard to know, but this is an issue that at some point will need to be addressed. Bottom line, there is still a lot of uncertainty for commodity markets in the coming weeks and months. We will keep you posted, of course, as new developments take shape. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

As markets react to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, price moves for corn, wheat, oil and metals may mean new inflationary pressures for central banks to contend with in the coming months.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This research references country/ies which are generally the subject of comprehensive or selective sanctions programs administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies. Users of this report are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities in relation to any sanctioned country/ies are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions.This recording references actual or potential sanctions, which may prohibit U.S. persons from buying certain securities, making certain investments and/or engaging in other activities in or pertaining to Russia.The content of this recording is for informational purposes and does not represent Morgan Stanley's view as to whether or not any of the Persons, instruments or investments discussed are or will become subject to sanctions. Any references in this presentation to entities, debt or equity instruments that may be covered by such sanctions should not be read as recommending or advising as to any investment activities in relation to such entities or instruments. Audience members are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities in relation to any sanctioned entities and/or securities are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions.-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends across the global investment landscape, and how we put those ideas together. It's Friday, February 25th at 3 p.m. in London. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has grabbed the headlines. There are other commentators and podcasts that are far more knowledgeable and better placed to comment on that conflict. Rather than offer assessment on geopolitics, I want to try to address one small tangent of these developments- the potential impact on prices and inflation. Russia and Ukraine are both major commodity producers. Russia produces about 10% of the world's oil, and Russia and Ukraine together account for 1/3 of the world's wheat and 1/5 of the world's corn production, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. So, if one is wondering why the price of wheat is up about 18% since the end of January, look no further. These commodities are traded around the world, but specific exposure can be even more acute. Morgan Stanley analysts estimate that Russia supplies roughly 1/3 of Europe's natural gas, while analysis by the Financial Times estimates that Ukraine supplies roughly 1/3 of China's corn. There are also second order linkages. Russia produces about 40% of the world's palladium, a key component for catalytic converters, and about 6% of the world's aluminum. But because Russia also provides the energy for a good portion of Europe's aluminum production, the impact could be even larger on aluminum prices than Russia's market share would indicate. Central banks will need to look at these changing prices and weigh how much they should factor into their medium term inflation outlook, which ultimately determines their monetary policy. For now, we think three elements will guide central bank thinking, especially at the U.S. Federal Reserve. First, higher policy rates are still necessary, despite international developments, given how low interest rates in the U.S. and Europe still are relative to the health of these economies. Slowing demand, which is the point of interest rate hikes, is still important to contain medium term inflationary pressures. Second, these developments may reduce the odds of an aggressive start to central bank action. A few weeks ago, markets implied that the Fed would begin with a large .5% interest rate increase. Our economists did not think that was likely, and continue to believe that the Fed will hike by a smaller .25% at its March meeting. Third and finally, the duration and scale of these commodity price impacts are uncertain. Indeed, I haven't even mentioned the prospect of further sanctions or other interventions that could further impact commodity prices. In the view of my colleagues who forecast interest rates, that should mean higher risk premiums, and therefore higher interest rates on government bonds in the U.S. and Europe. Thanks for listening. Subscribe to Thoughts on the Market on Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen, and leave us a review. We'd love to hear from you.

While geopolitical tensions currently weigh on markets, investors should look to the fundamentals in order to anticipate the depth and duration of the ongoing correction.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This research references country/ies which are generally the subject of comprehensive or selective sanctions programs administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies. Users of this report are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities in relation to any sanctioned country/ies are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions.-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace. It's Wednesday, February 23rd at 11 a.m. in New York. So let's get after it. This past week tensions around Russia/Ukraine dominated the headlines. When unpredictable events like this occur, it's easy to simply throw up one's arms and blame all price action on it. However, we're not so sure that's a good idea, particularly in the current environment of Fed tightening and slowing growth. From here, though, the depth and duration of the ongoing correction will be determined primarily by the magnitude of the slowdown in the first half of 2022. While the Russia/Ukraine situation obviously can make this slowdown even worse, ultimately, we think that preexisting fundamental risks we've been focused on for months will be the primary drivers, particularly as geopolitical concerns are now very much priced. While most economic and earnings forecasts do reflect the slowdown from last year's torrid pace, we think there's a growing risk of greater disappointment in both. We've staked our case primarily on slowing consumer demand as confidence remains low thanks to the generationally high inflation in just about everything the consumer needs and wants. Many investors we speak with remain more convinced the consumer will hold up better than the confidence surveys suggest. After all, high frequency data like retail sales and credit card data remain robust, while many consumer facing companies continue to indicate no slowdown in demand, at least not yet. However, most of our leading indicators suggest that the risk of consumer slowdown remains higher than normal. Secondarily, but perhaps just as importantly, is the fact that supply is now rising. While this will alleviate some of the supply shortages, it could also lead to a return of price discounting for many goods where inflationary pressures have been the greatest. That's potentially a problem for margins. It's also a risk to demand, in our view, if the improved supply reveals a much greater level of double ordering than what is currently anticipated. In short, the order books - i.e. the demand picture - may not be as robust as people believe. Overall, the technical picture is mixed also within U.S. equities. Rarely have we witnessed such weak breath and havoc under the surface when the S&P 500 is down less than 10%. In our experience, when such a divergence like this happens, it typically ends with the primary index catching down to the average stock. In short, this correction looks incomplete to us. Nevertheless, we also appreciate that equity markets are very oversold and sentiment is bearish even if positioning is not. With the Russia Ukraine situation now weighing heavily on equity markets, relief would likely lead to a tactical rally, but we acknowledge that uncertainty remains extremely high. The bottom line for us is that we really don't have a strong view on the Russia/Ukraine situation as it relates to the equity markets. However, we think a lot of bad news is priced at this point. Therefore, we would look to sell strength into the end of the month if markets rally on the geopolitical risk failing to escalate further. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcasts app. It helps more people to find the show.

Alex J. Pollock is a Senior Fellow with the Mises Institute, previously the Distinguished Senior Fellow at the R. Street Institute, and the former Principal Deputy Director of the U.S. Department of Treasury's Office of Financial Research. He is also the former President and CEO of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago. Holding advanced degrees from the University of Chicago, and Princeton University, he is the author of the legendary book, Finance and Philosophy: Why We're Always Surprised.

Founded in 1946, NMF was one of America's first diversity organizations. Today, NMF remains the only the only national organization solely dedicated to providing scholarships to medical and health professions students in all groups underrepresented in healthcare. Ms. Davis comes to NMF from RWJBarnabas Health, the largest academic medical center system in New Jersey, where she served as Executive Vice President and Chief Corporate Affairs Officer. Ms. Davis created and led Social Impact and Community Investment, an equity-centered, policy-led community health practice dedicated to addressing the social and political determinants of health. During her tenure there her portfolio consisted of: Policy Development and Government Affairs, Healthy Living and Community Engagement, Employee Wellness, Marketing, Communications, External and Corporate Affairs and, Global Health. She is the creator of the RWJBarnabas Health Women's Leadership Alliance, the Young Professional Advisory Council, and the Corporate Institute for Internship. The Social Impact and Community Investment Practice was created to leverage the system's range of assets to advance a culture of health and lift the quality of life in New Jersey communities. With a programmatic emphasis on ensuring health equity, the practice spearheads innovative social impact and external affairs initiatives that address the social, economic, and environmental conditions that have a significant impact on health outcomes. The policy arm leads the practice as it seeks to change systems, structures, and policies to create a more equitable future for all New Jerseyans. Before joining RWJBarnabas Health, Ms. Davis served as Chief Policy Counsel to former New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, where she was the first African American to serve in this position in state history. She was the first African American and only the second women to serve as Acting New Jersey State Treasurer responsible for a state budget of over $30 billion dollars. She was the youngest person to serve as Executive Director of the New Jersey Lottery in state history and served as a senior policy advisor in the New Jersey Department of Health and Senior Services. She has a proven record of supporting the equitable building of community wealth and health throughout her career and, while Acting State Treasurer of New Jersey, founded the New Jersey Department of the Treasury's Office of Supplier Diversity and Division of Minority and Women Owned Businesses. Ms. Davis is also active in civic engagement in the local and the global community. Nationally, she serves on the Boards of The Democracy Collaborative and The Root Cause Coalition and on the Health Anchor Network Founding Design Team; Root Cause Coalition National Advisory Board and United Way ALICE National and Building Healthy Places Advisory Councils. Globally, she is a member of the Board of Directors of the International Black Women's Public Policy Institute. She is the President Emeritus of Executive Women of New Jersey, the state's premier organization for senior level executive women in business, Chair of Academic Affairs for the Joint Board of Rutgers-Rowan Universities; Treasurer of the New Jersey Performing Arts Center Women's Association; and is on the boards of the New Jersey Women Lawyers Association; Rutgers Institute for Women's Leadership; New Jersey Bipartisan Coalition for Women's Appointments; Caucus Educational Trust and the New Jersey Legislative Black Caucus Foundation. Ms. Davis began her legal career as a trial litigator, is an Honors graduate of Seton Hall University and holds a Juris Doctorate from Seton Hall School of Law. She holds Executive Education Certificates in Corporate Social Responsibility from the Harvard Business School and in Social Impact Strategy from the Wharton School of Business. Special Guest: Michellene Davis.

Founded in 1946, NMF was one of America's first diversity organizations. Today, NMF remains the only the only national organization solely dedicated to providing scholarships to medical and health professions students in all groups underrepresented in healthcare. Ms. Davis comes to NMF from RWJBarnabas Health, the largest academic medical center system in New Jersey, where she served as Executive Vice President and Chief Corporate Affairs Officer. Ms. Davis created and led Social Impact and Community Investment, an equity-centered, policy-led community health practice dedicated to addressing the social and political determinants of health. During her tenure there her portfolio consisted of: Policy Development and Government Affairs, Healthy Living and Community Engagement, Employee Wellness, Marketing, Communications, External and Corporate Affairs and, Global Health. She is the creator of the RWJBarnabas Health Women's Leadership Alliance, the Young Professional Advisory Council, and the Corporate Institute for Internship. The Social Impact and Community Investment Practice was created to leverage the system's range of assets to advance a culture of health and lift the quality of life in New Jersey communities. With a programmatic emphasis on ensuring health equity, the practice spearheads innovative social impact and external affairs initiatives that address the social, economic, and environmental conditions that have a significant impact on health outcomes. The policy arm leads the practice as it seeks to change systems, structures, and policies to create a more equitable future for all New Jerseyans. Before joining RWJBarnabas Health, Ms. Davis served as Chief Policy Counsel to former New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, where she was the first African American to serve in this position in state history. She was the first African American and only the second women to serve as Acting New Jersey State Treasurer responsible for a state budget of over $30 billion dollars. She was the youngest person to serve as Executive Director of the New Jersey Lottery in state history and served as a senior policy advisor in the New Jersey Department of Health and Senior Services. She has a proven record of supporting the equitable building of community wealth and health throughout her career and, while Acting State Treasurer of New Jersey, founded the New Jersey Department of the Treasury's Office of Supplier Diversity and Division of Minority and Women Owned Businesses. Ms. Davis is also active in civic engagement in the local and the global community. Nationally, she serves on the Boards of The Democracy Collaborative and The Root Cause Coalition and on the Health Anchor Network Founding Design Team; Root Cause Coalition National Advisory Board and United Way ALICE National and Building Healthy Places Advisory Councils. Globally, she is a member of the Board of Directors of the International Black Women's Public Policy Institute. She is the President Emeritus of Executive Women of New Jersey, the state's premier organization for senior level executive women in business, Chair of Academic Affairs for the Joint Board of Rutgers-Rowan Universities; Treasurer of the New Jersey Performing Arts Center Women's Association; and is on the boards of the New Jersey Women Lawyers Association; Rutgers Institute for Women's Leadership; New Jersey Bipartisan Coalition for Women's Appointments; Caucus Educational Trust and the New Jersey Legislative Black Caucus Foundation. Ms. Davis began her legal career as a trial litigator, is an Honors graduate of Seton Hall University and holds a Juris Doctorate from Seton Hall School of Law. She holds Executive Education Certificates in Corporate Social Responsibility from the Harvard Business School and in Social Impact Strategy from the Wharton School of Business. Special Guest: Michellene Davis.

Jane Lo, Singapore Correspondent speaks with Rick Aldrich, Lead Cybersecurity Policy and Compliance Analyst, Booze Allen Hamilton.Rick is a cybersecurity policy and compliance analyst for Booz Allen in its support to the U.S. Department of Defense CIO. Previously he spent over 15 years as an Air Force JAG (Judge Advocate General's Corp) specializing in cybercrime and information operations portfolios. He was recognized as the Outstanding Professor of Law at the Air Force Academy. Rick has multiple publications, including a chapter on information warfare in a widely used textbook. He has presented at national and international conferences and is co-author of DoD's award-winning CyberLaw digital training product. Rick has been awarded several grants by the Institute for National Security Studies to research the legal and policy implications of cybercrime and cyberwar. He holds a B.S. in Computer Science from the Air Force Academy, a JD from UCLA, and an LLM in Intellectual Property Law from the University of Houston. In this podcast, Rick discussed highlights of cyber law cases and regulations in the recent years in United States in 4 areas: The U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”) - Advisory on Potential Sanctions Risks for Facilitating Ransomware PaymentsThe high-profile case of Mondelez International, Inc. v. Zurich American Insurance Co. litigation, and takeaways for organisations and cyber insurance companiesAttorney-Client Privilege and takeaways for cybersecurity professionalsObservations from recent class action lawsuits and settlement amounts Key takeaways from these developments highlighted could have important implications for cybersecurity professionals across the world. Recorded: 16th November 2021 6pm (Virginia, U.S) / 17th November 2021 7am (Singapore) 

How To Fight Ransomware in Cryptocurrency And Understand OFAC SanctionsWelcome to the episode 7 of the 2nd season of “WE WERE ON A BREAK” - Ross Voice. The series where the host, Stephen Brent Sargeant (Compliance Consultant to Bitfinex) talks to industry professionals during the CoronaVirus (COVID-19) quarantine and gains industry insights and expertise. On the heels of the Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control's (OFAC) designation of SUEX OTC, (SUEX), a virtual currency exchange, special guest Ari Redbord (Head of Legal and Government Affairs) of leading Blockchain Intelligence Company, TRM Labs and Stephen breakdown the historic approach of Sanctioning a cryptocurrency exchange and how the industry stakeholders react to the concentrated efforts of USA law enforcement and regulators to counter Ransomware. In this session, we go deep into the mind of the USA regulators, VASPs and Ransomware victims to determine the implications on such a huge Sanctions announcement and how updated guidance from US Dept. of Treasury could put pressure on illicit actors and VASPs alike in complying with the emerging interest of Ransomware by International Law Enforcement and Regulators. **This interview was recorded on Oct. 8, 2021**Disclaimer**The views and opinions expressed in this episode (and all episodes) are those of the host and the guests. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of their employers, contractors or any organization they may be affiliated with now or in the future. Time Stamps (Return back to your favorite point of the episode):•(1:50) – Who Is Ari Redbord And The Man Behind The Million Dollar Smile•(03:20) – Understanding How Dept. Of Treasury And Other Agencies Align Approach Against Illicit Actors•(6:50) – There Is No Such Thing As An Unregulated Exchange Only Non-Compliant Exchanges•(8:05) – What Is A Physical Crypto Exchange Doing In A Decentralized World •(9:00) – Explaining What Are Nested Exchanges And Parasite VASPS •(11:35) – What Role Do Larger Exchanges Have In Monitoring Their Exchange Customers •(14:40) – Why Did They Stop At SUEX And Not Go After Other Exchanges By Same Operator•(17:40) – How Much Reach Do USA Regulators Have When Enforcing SANCTIONS On Foreign Crypto Operators•(20:05) – What Is The Impact Of Regulations And Sanctions On Cryptocurrency •(23:38) – What Happens In The First 48 Hours Of Crypto Hacks, Scams And Thefts (mentioned Rich Sanders from Cipherblade)•(26:15) – How Does TRM Labs Guide Their Clients On Ransomware Risk Mitigation•(30:16) – Are NFTs Unlicensed Securities And How Do NFT Projects Prepare For Regulation •(33:16) – Why Is There More Focus On NFTs Than Traditional Art / Luxury Goods Re: AML•(36:52) – How Do Victims Of Ransomware Avoid Contributing To Sanctions Evasion / Terrorist Financing •(41:25) – How To Protect Yourself From Phishing Attacks And Social Engineering •(45:06) – Highlights From ACAMS Las VegasStephen Brent Sargeant (Host)•LinkedIn (Best way to reach me) - linkedin.com/in/stephen-brent-sargeant-cams•Instagram (Everyday type stuff) https://www.instagram.com/stephen_b_sargeant/•Twitter (I communicate in GIFs) - https://twitter.com/lifesgt•Business Related Matters (Let's Collab): stephenbsargeant@gmail.comAri Redbord (Guest)•LinkedIn (Fabolous Posts) - https://www.linkedin.com/in/ari-redbord-4054381b4•LinkedIn (TRM Labs) https://www.linkedin.com/company/trmlabs/•Twitter (TRM Labs) - https://twitter.com/trmlabs?s=20•Company Website (TRM Labs): https://www.trmlabs.com/Resources •Treasury Comments On Release of Ransomware-Related Data and Guidance: https://www.trmlabs.com/post/watch-the-interview-treasury-comments-on-release-of-ransomware-related-data-and-guidance•OFAC takes first action against cryptocurrency exchange and issues updated ransomware advisory: https://www.trmlabs.com/post/ofac-takes-first-action-against-cryptocurrency-exchange-and-issues-updated-ransomware-advisory•Behind Suex.io: the first sanctioned cryptocurrency exchange: https://www.trmlabs.com/post/behind-suex-io-the-first-sanctioned-cryptocurrency-exchange•Ransomware & Cyberattacks in the Age of Crypto: https://www.trmlabs.com/post/register-now-ransomware-cyberattacks-in-the-age-of-crypto•OFAC Sanctions SUEX.io Cryptocurrency Exchange: What Every AML / Compliance Professional Needs To Know: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/stephen-brent-sargeant-cams_ofac-sanctions-suexio-crypto-exchange-activity-6849691432601600001-KG_z•US Department of Treasury Press Release: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0364•US Department of Treasury :Updated Advisory on Potential Sanctions Risks for Facilitating Ransomware Payments:https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/126/ofac_ransomware_advisory.pdfBackground Music (beat name: Leslie)•Goose Goddi (Music Producer) - https://instagram.com/goosegoddi?igshid=1paia8lwy2x3o•Beats Can Be Found On Amazon Music - https://www.amazon.com/Music-Station-Goose-Goddi/dp/B08B4BLCH1

Treasury officials offer additional commentary on their first crypto exchange action and advisory in an exclusive interview with TRM Labs. U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) took its first-ever action against a cryptocurrency exchange, SUEX.io, a concierge cryptocurrency exchanger incorporated in Czechia but operating in Russia. This action comes as the United States attempts to tackle the scourge of ransomware attacks and harden cyber defenses against cybercriminals and rogue nation-state actors. In the view of Treasury, SUEX fills an essential niche in the ecosystem of under-regulated exchanges that, either through willful ignorance or witting cooperation, facilitate the conversion of illicit crypto ransoms into real-world currency. SUEX also operated as a so-called "nested" or "parasite" exchange, meaning SUEX did not directly custody of its clients' crypto. Instead, it fed off the infrastructure of a large, global cryptocurrency exchange to conduct its transactions. Nested exchanges often take advantage of the greater liquidity and lower transaction costs of big, multinational exchanges while presenting customers with a custom-made interface obscuring the connection to the larger service. Using this relationship with a large exchange, and access to cash from unknown sources, SUEX was able to convert the illicit monies of its clients to physical cash at an alarming scale. See TRM's deep-dive investigation on Suex here: https://www.trmlabs.com/post/behind-suex-io-the-first-sanctioned-cryptocurrency-exchange Todd Conklin, Counselor to the Deputy Secretary of the Treasury, highlighted the risk associated with nested exchanges when discussing the action with us this morning in a special edition of TRM Talks. Read more about the advisory here: https://www.trmlabs.com/post/ofac-takes-first-action-against-cryptocurrency-exchange-and-issues-updated-ransomware-advisory This podcast is hosted by TRM Labs, a blockchain analytics company. We work with crypto businesses, financial institutions and government agencies to monitor, detect and investigate fraud and financial crime in crypto. Learn more about our mission to build a safer financial system for billions of people here: https://www.trmlabs.com/about

The Department of Treasury's Office of Foreign Asset Control ("OFAC") continues to bring sanctions enforcement actions. At the same time, OFAC is reiterating the importance of sanctions compliance program. Building on its May 2019 Framework for Sanctions Compliance Program, OFAC is sticking to its word -- setting forth sanctions compliance program requirements and holding companies accountable for sanctions program violations.In this Episode, Michael Volkov reviews recent enforcement actions, expanded Belarus sanctions, and continuing compliance expectations.

The United States Department of the Treasury sanctioned an Eritrean official it accused of engaging in serious human rights abuses committed during the ongoing conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray region.The Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control is blacklisting General Filipos Woldeyohannes, the chief of staff of the Eritrean Defense Forces.The Treasury accuses EDF troops of massacres, looting, rape, torture, executions and purposely shooting civilians in the street.Director of the Office of Foreign Assets Control Andrea M Gacki says today's action demonstrates the United States' commitment to imposing costs on those responsible for these despicable acts, which worsen a conflict that has led to tremendous suffering by Ethiopians.

Lamine Zarrad is the SVP, Financial Services, at ZenBusiness, a public benefits corporation that provides end-to-end digital tools for very small businesses in the service sector, including many “solopreneurs.” He began his entrepreneurial journey after immigrating to the United States, after which he went on to serve in the U.S. Marines. He subsequently built an expertise around banking regulations and financial services through work at Merrill Lynch and the U.S. Treasury's Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. With ZenBusiness, Lamine combines his passion for inclusion with his banking skills to create ZenBusiness Money. Follow Bryan Wish on Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/in/bryanwish/ Follow Bryan Wish on Twitter: twitter.com/bryanwish_?s=11 Follow Bryan Wish on Instagram: www.instagram.com/bryanwish_/ Join our Mission: bwmissions.com/join/ Join our Community: my.community.com/bwmissions

This virtual event will examine current national security issues, including relations with China, as well as coordination with allies, utilization of available legal tools, and whether those tools might be effective.Featuring:-- Hon. Nazak Nikakhtar, Nazak served as Assistant Secretary for Industry and Analysis at the U.S. Department of Commerce's International Trade Administration. She also served as the U.S. government's top official for export controls on dual-use items and technologies, performing the non-exclusive functions and duties as Under Secretary for the Bureau of Industry and Security.-- Adam J. Szubin, Mr. Szubin served for two years as Acting Treasury Department Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. During his nearly 13 year tenure at the Treasury, Mr. Szubin served as the Director of Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) for nine years and Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence.- Moderator: Eric J. Kadel, Jr., Partner, Sullivan & Cromwell LLP

John Cassara began his 26 year U.S. government career as an intelligence officer during the Cold War. He later served as a Treasury Special Agent in both the U.S. Secret Service and US Customs Service, where he investigated money laundering, trade fraud and international smuggling. He was an undercover arms dealer for two years. Assigned overseas, he developed expertise in Middle East money laundering, value transfer and underground financial systems. Concerned about trade-based money laundering, he invented the concept of Trade Transparency Units (TTUs). He also worked six years for Treasury's FinCEN and was detailed to the Department of State. Mr. Cassara's final assignment was with Treasury's Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence (TFI). Since his retirement, he has lectured in the United States and around the world on a variety of transnational crime issues. He has been a consultant for government and industry. He is on the Board of Directors of Global Financial Integrity. He has testified numerous times as an expert witness before Congressional committees. Mr. Cassara has authored numerous articles and five books, including Trade-Based Money Laundering: The Next Frontier in International Money Laundering Enforcement and the 2020 release of Money Laundering and Illicit Financial Flows: Following the Money and Value Trails. Join our CEO, Ian Henderson as he finds out from John: How terrorist financing has evolved in the past few years. What were the most impactful experiences from his days as a special agent and how did these shape his path as an AML and terrorist financing expert. What metrics matter when evaluating our success to combat money laundering. What can we do to combat illicit financial flows.

The United States Treasury Department sanctioned members of a smuggling network that US officials assert helps fund Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran-aligned Houthi fighters in Yemen.Treasury officials say the network, allegedly led by Iran-based Houthi financier Sa'id al-Jamal, directs funds from the sale of Iranian petroleum through a complex web of intermediaries and exchange houses in multiple countries to the Houthis in Yemen.Andrea Gacki, director of Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control says the attacks undermine efforts to bring the conflict to an end and, most tragically, starve tens of millions of innocent civilians.

On this episode, Tammie Johnson from Treasury's Office of Financial Innovation & Transformation (FIT) gives us an update and walkthrough of the blockchain app FIT is developing in coordination with the National Science Foundation (NSF). Check out Episode 61 for more background on the project. You can follow along by following this link and see the app for yourself: https://projects.invisionapp.com/share/XR102NLZB9MD. Make sure to use the password: fit_gps. For more info, take a look at the FIT's blog: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/fit/blog/another-link-in-the-chain.html

Mr. Jordan discusses his impressive career in the IC, including his decades at NSA and DOD, his creation of the National Virtual Translation Center, and his current "Follow the Money" position at Treasury's Office of Intelligence and Analysis where his group tracks complex foreign and domestic financial transactions to ensure they are not being used to underwrite terrorism or other unlawful activities. Mr. Jordan also provides many pointers for young people considering careers in the IC. Recorded 30 Oct. 2020. Interviewer: Deborah Bonanni, former Chief of Staff, NSA, and AFIO Board Member. Host: James Hughes, AFIO President and former CIA Operations Officer. 

* Use coupon code PODCAST25 for 25% off this webcast * Webcast URL: https://www.theknowledgegroup.org/webcasts/ofacs-heightened-enforcement-trends/ In response to violations committed by U.S. persons as well as foreign organizations, the enforcement efforts of the Department of Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) have become more extensive. Some of the most significant OFAC enforcement actions this year include Eagle Shipping and Société Internationale de Télécommunications Aéronautiques (SITA) that were both assessed over $1 million civil penalties for their violations. As the pace of OFAC's enforcement actions continues to increase, stiffer probes and compliance requirements are expected to bring a complex and challenging landscape. Therefore, companies and their counsel must have comprehensive and up-to-date sanctions compliance programs to ensure maximum regulatory compliance and risk management. In this LIVE Webcast, a panel of distinguished professionals and thought leaders will provide an in-depth discussion of recent OFAC enforcement trends. Speakers will also provide the best compliance practices and effective strategies in addressing sanctions risks.