GoodFellows: Conversations from the Hoover Institution

Is China hell-bent on a move against Taiwan, or does its saber-rattling not square with a military capability that's perhaps overestimated? Frank Dikötter, a Hoover senior fellow specializing in the history of modern China, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster to discuss his reading of China's desire and ability to project power, including its manufacturing capability and its suppression of individual liberties, plus the durability of Xi Jinping's rule. Recorded on May 23, 2025.

America and China take a 90-day time-out in their dispute over tariffs; President Trump's tour of the Middle East—the first overseas trip of his second term—raises unsettling questions about both his regional strategy and his family's business dealings; and hostilities between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan raise questions of behind-the-scenes great-power machinations amidst “Cold War 2.” Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster discuss what's at stake in these various parts of the globe. After that: the three fellows debate the severity of Chinese espionage in America's universities; and how AI's ability to shortcut the learning process will impact the future of higher education.    Recorded on May 14, 2025.

Harvard University and the Trump administration do battle over civil rights, funding, and tax status. Europe confronts unpleasant realities as it honors the 80th anniversary of VE Day. And the Pentagon contemplates how new weaponry and technology will change the future of warfare.  It's all part of a special “bring your own topic” episode of GoodFellows, which also examines the recent White House national security shakeup; the merits of a June 14 parade to celebrate the US Army's 250th anniversary (it's also President Trump's 79th birthday); and the legacy of legendary “value investor” Warren Buffett as he steps down as Berkshire Hathaway's CEO. Finally, with Mother's Day approaching, the fellows reflect on the remarkable women who brought them into the world. Recorded on May 6, 2025.

Rejected by voters last November, the Democratic Party is perhaps afforded new life given President Trump's decline in popularity and economic uncertainty ahead. What is the party's message?  Rep. Ro Khanna, a prominent progressive voice whose California district includes parts of Silicon Valley, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss tariffs and the use of executive power, “blue state” mismanagement, the feasibility of a “Marshall Plan” for economically downtrodden parts of America, plus the chances of Democrats parting ways with their “old guard.” After that: the three fellows weigh in on the Trump presidency at the 100-day mark, the future of Catholicism after the death of Pope Francis, tax exemption for universities, their go-to takeout food (pizza yes; haggis, no), plus two April landmarks—the 250th anniversary of the Battle of Lexington and the 50th anniversary of the fall of Saigon. Recorded on April 28, 2025.

What are the economic and geopolitical effects of President Trump's imposition of tariffs on America's trading friends and foes? In an episode devoted solely to viewers' questions, Hoover senior fellows Sir Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster delve into the certain volatility (and uncertain logic) of Trump's tariff maneuvers, what the future holds for the European Union, institutional decline within the U.S., plus what if any parallels between historical periods past and present (do all roads lead to Rome or Richard Nixon?). Also discussed: the uniqueness of a hybrid American republic/empire, "sleeper" nations that might emerge as powerhouses by 2050, and recommended biographies for secondary-school readers. Finally, as this month marks GoodFellows' fifth anniversary, the three fellows reflect on what they've learned over the course of gathering online and in-person for 150-plus shows.       Recorded on April 10, 2025.  

Does America have a plan for winning the competition of the future—mastering artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and space, plus other material and developmental sciences? Amy Zegart, the Hoover Institution's Morris Arnold and Nona Cox Senior Fellow and cochair of the Stanford Emerging Technology Review (SETR), explains how this one-of-a-kind partnership between the Hoover Institution and Stanford University's School of Engineering gives policymakers the tools they need to better address the challenges facing cutting-edge industries. Also discussed: the Trump national security team's inelegant use of a chat app while prepping for a military strike in Yemen, plus the significance (or lack thereof) of Trump's nemeses caving in to his demands—and whether other entities (Canada, Panama, Greenland, Venezuela's trade partners) will follow suit.    Recorded on March 26, 2025. Download the SETR report here: Stanford Emerging Technology Review 2025

US and Ukrainian officials will meet on March 12 to talk peace in Eastern Europe; a new US approach to China may or may not be in the works; and the Trump administration's gas-brake approach to imposing tariffs on trade partners has a Hoover economist baffled.  Arkansas senator Tom Cotton, chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee and author of Seven Things You Can't Say About China, joins Hoover senior fellows John Cochrane and H.R. McMaster to discuss the latest in Ukraine and his concerns over China's military, economic, and cultural hegemony. After that: The fellows dig deeper into the economic and strategic ramifications of Trump's tariff ploys, followed by a “lightning round,” including the merits of a US “crypto strategic reserve”; the renaming an army fort in Georgia (H.R. having known the late general whose name was removed); the creator of Hamilton refusing to play a “Trumpier” Kennedy Center; plus what the two would give up for Lent if so inclined.    Recorded on March 7, 2025.

A one-week window into the Trump administration's worldview—the president blaming Ukraine for Russia's invasion; his vice president taking to social media to accuse a Hoover scholar of “historical illiteracy”; the US then refusing to join other UN members in condemning Russian aggression—raises the question: Is the Trump brand of confusion and controversy mere happenstance or a calculated means to an end?  American Enterprise Institute scholar, author, and columnist Matthew Continetti joins Hoover senior fellows John Cochrane, H.R. McMaster, and Niall Ferguson (the subject of the vice president's lashing on X) to discuss Trump's unorthodox style, the showcasing of executive orders, and his chances of success at home and overseas. Also discussed: the significance of Trump's firing top military brass, a $5 million “gold card” for US residency, the Washington Post's editorial shift to “personal liberties and free markets,” Scotland's rugby disappointment at the hands (and legs) of England, plus the late Gene Hackman's best performances.     Recorded on February 27, 2025.

Three weeks into the nascent Trump presidency, the question of “power” arises: how the leader of the free world uses unique words, deeds, and threats to advance America's interests globally, through a blend of grandiose promises (rebuilding Gaza), economic saber-rattling (tariffs on imported goods), and a “vibe shift” (woke bureaucracy under attack). Hoover Kleinheinz Senior Fellow Stephen Kotkin joins GoodFellows regulars Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss what such expressions of American power portend for a republic/empire showing signs of wear and tear—potentially crippling debt, a military perhaps unable to engage in multiple-theater conflicts, and more.    Recorded on February 10, 2025. 

A week into Donald Trump's “second first term,” the GoodFellows drink from the proverbial fire hose trying to keep up with the news: a flurry of presidential executive orders; a freezing of US foreign aid; policy spats with multiple nations; at Davos, the world's globalists contending with MAGA; a Chinese advancement in artificial intelligence that prompted a market selloff and evokes memories of the Cold War's space race. Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster discuss the significance of the aid freeze; what Colombia's agreement to accept deportees after threats of a tariff war portends for Trump-brand foreign policy; how the times have changed at Davos's annual World Economic Forum; plus whether the emergence of China's DeepSeek app will trigger a modern-day “moonshot” within the AI sector. Next, the fellows discuss matters they deem neglected (are Russia and Iran's regimes on the ropes?), a DEI executive order, whether Trump's revoking of security clearances and dignitary protection was justified or vindictive, plus the three fellows' Super Bowl plans. Recorded on January 28, 2025.

Donald Trump's “second first term”—an oddity of winning nonconsecutive presidential elections—begins with talk of dramatic policy shifts at home and abroad.  Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and “Trump 45” veteran H.R. McMaster discuss the odds of a successful second Trump presidency; whether the man himself has changed; the most salient questions to ask Pentagon and State Department secretary-designates; whether Elon Musk's government reform will be more DOGE or dog; what America's allies and adversaries are thinking; plus the seriousness of acquiring Greenland or other Trump-speculated land grabs (Canada, the Panama Canal).  After that: the fellows opine on where the Biden presidency went off the rails (are historians to blame?), followed by a look at LA's devastating wildfires and California's shifting political landscape (the conflagration straight out of the pages of Niall's 2021 book Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe), plus what prompted Mark Zuckerberg to abandon Meta's fact-checking and DEI programs. Recorded on January 15, 2025.

An eventful election year concludes with the curtain soon to rise on a second Trump presidency and the possibility of dramatic changes to how Washington conducts itself. Kimberley Strassel, the Wall Street Journal's “Potomac Watch” columnist, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster for a temperature check on Trump's comeback: the odds of his ending lawfare and weeding out recalcitrant bureaucracy while also extending his 2017 tax cuts; plus whether Elon Musk's DOGE initiative will indeed make the federal government more efficient. Later, the fellows offer their choices of 2024's winners and losers, and what they got right and wrong this past year, as well as something big to expect in 2025. Finally, Sir Niall reflects on the emotional pull of knighthood, having recently been on the kneeling side of his investiture ceremony at Windsor Castle.

In a special “mailbag” episode, Hoover senior fellows Sir Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster answer audience questions ranging from current geopolitics quandaries and viable economic models to career and parenting advice, plus their personal choices of dream guests. Among the topics: a neglected African continent; Russia's military and economic sustainability and related policy options that the incoming Trump administration will face; parallels between Taiwan and pre–World War I Europe; rating Javier Milei's performance in Argentina; job options for aspiring PhD candidates; plus the panel's recommendations for foundational books to instill honor and patriotism in children (spoiler alert: Niall talking Tolkien).  Submit your questions for our next mailbag episode at Hoover.org/AskGoodFellows and see if your question gets selected and answered!

After a “change” election that returned Donald Trump to the presidency, what can Americans expect in the way of foreign policy and national security departures from the current administration? Former US secretary of state and CIA director Mike Pompeo joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss possible new directions for America's national security apparatus. Also discussed: the Biden administration's allowing Ukraine to fire long-range missiles into Russia; how to counter Chinese threats to Taiwan's independence; Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's being declared a “war criminal” subject to arrest; plus the likelihood that Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency can reshape the federal government.  Recorded on November 22, 2024.

Donald Trump will return to the Oval Office in a manner few saw coming – he won America's popular vote; his coattails may lead to Republican control of Congress – while progressive institutions (legacy media, Hollywood, wokeism, and a tired Democratic playbook) take a beating. New York Times opinion columnist Bret Stephens joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss an American election that defied conventional wisdom – and how Trump should proceed in the weeks ahead (key cabinet appointments, foreign and economic policies) given the surprise gift of an Election Night mandate. Recorded on November 7, 2024. WATCH THE VIDEO

Imagine an alternate universe in which the American Revolution fails or where Russia rejects Leninism in its infant stage. Live from the Hoover Institution's Fall Retreat, Lord Andrew Roberts, renowned historian and the Hoover Institution's Bonnie and Tom McCloskey Distinguished Visiting Fellow, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss various historical counterfactuals, including British forces winning the pivotal Battle of Saratoga in 1777; Vladimir Lenin being assassinated before Communism takes root in Russia; John F. Kennedy surviving his motorcade through Dallas; plus China rejecting economic reforms and instead refashioning itself as a second North Korea.   Recorded on October 17, 2024.

Why has Israel repeatedly disregarded and gone the opposite way from the White House's entreaties regarding the Middle East? And does the West fully fathom that Ukraine is losing its war of attrition with Russia? Walter Russell Mead, “Global View” columnist for the Wall Street Journal, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss the latest developments in those two combat theaters. Next, the fellows choose policies they feel have gone neglected in America's presidential election, weigh in on one pundit's assessment that the US is headed for “the greatest mental health crisis in the history of the country” should Donald Trump prevail, and reflect on the passing of Grateful Dead founding member Phil Lesh.  Recorded on October 28, 2024.

Hot-wiring pagers and walkie-talkies to take out Hezbollah operatives: Was Israel's tactic—like something from an Ian Fleming novel—a justifiable act of national security or a violation of international law? Victor Davis Hanson, the Hoover Institution's Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow and a military historian and classicist, joins GoodFellows regulars John Cochrane and H.R. McMaster to discuss the latest in the Middle East, as well as whether it was wise for Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy to tour a munitions factory in the battleground state of Pennsylvania on the verge of America's national election. Next, the three Baby Boomer panelists reflect on their generation's legacy, plus which singer deserves a statue in the US Capitol alongside country music legend Johnny Cash.     Recorded on September 24, 2024. RELATED RESOURCES: The Secret History of the Shadow Campaign That Saved the 2020 Election by Molly Ball The Second World Wars: How the First Global Conflict Was Fought and Won by Victor Davis Hanson The Year That Broke Politics: Collusion and Chaos in the Presidential Election of 1968 by Luke A. Nichter Basic Economics by Thomas Sowell  Free to Choose: A Personal Statement by Milton Friedman and Rose Friedman With the Old Breed: At Peleliu and Okinawa by E. B. Sledge Memoirs of General William Tecumseh Sherman by William Tecumseth Sherman

What was it like to navigate America's national security apparatus all the while coping with a mercurial commander-in-chief? Hoover senior fellow H.R. McMaster tells all in his new best-seller At War with Ourselves: My Tour of Duty in the White House – with additional insights provided by Hoover senior fellow Niall Ferguson, whose forthcoming biography of Henry Kissinger likewise will touch on national security and White House intrigue. After that: Niall and H.R. dissect the previous night's presidential debate, assess the impact of Taylor Swift's endorsement of Kamala Harris (spoiler alert: boy-dad Niall's not a “Swiftie”), and offer thoughts on the perils of non-historians peddling “anti-history” and where the two fellows were 23 years ago during the 9/11 attacks on America. Recorded on September 11, 2024.

In a topsy-turvy election year, does America's 2024 presidential contest summon ghosts from 1968 — or, is a late-breaking 1980-style landslide in the cards? Historian Niall Ferguson, the Hoover Institution's Milbank Family Senior Fellow, appears solo on this “mini” edition of GoodFellows (or is it GoodFellow?) to discuss the current political landscape, what roles an aging electorate and the “gender gap” will play in America's election, plus a fondness for tariffs shared by two very different Republicans: Donald Trump and William McKinley (aka “the tariff king”). Niall also discusses the challenges in raising two young sons in the Information Age, and his renewed appreciation for the works of Kurt Vonnegut.

John Cochrane, the Hoover Institution's Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow and the author of The Fiscal Theory of Price Level (2023), discusses misconceptions around how the Federal Reserve goes about its business; why economic policy factors into the great-power competition with China; his fascination with Calvin Coolidge; plus why (in John's opinion) Portuguese Water Dogs are the kings of all canines.

In a special mini version of GoodFellows (just one wise man, not the usual three), Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, the Hoover Institution's Fouad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellow and author of the soon-to-be-released At War with Ourselves: My Tour of Duty in the Trump White House, discusses a possible sea change in American foreign policy and the view from other world capitals. On the 40th anniversary of his commissioning as a US Army second lieutenant, McMaster reflects on the challenges that tested his West Point Class of 1984 (motto: “The Best of the Corps”) versus those awaiting the Class of 2024 (“Like None Before”).

Is a regional war across the Middle East about to erupt? And what to make of a Venezuelan regime that doesn't honor election results? Matthew Kroenig, Vice President and Senior Director of the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and coauthor of the book We Win They Lose: Republican Foreign Policy and the New Cold War, joins Hoover senior fellows John Cochrane and H.R. McMaster to discuss lessons from deterrence (or a lack thereof) past, present, and future. Next, John explains how a market meltdown underscores a fragile world economy, followed by a discussion of two historical milestones: 50 years since Richard Nixon's resignation (with public trust in government today significantly lower than in Watergate's heyday); and Herbert Hoover's 150th birthday (as to his humanitarian pursuits, where would our fellows be without Hoover's namesake institution?).

An already surreal political year becomes all the more quizzical as former president Donald Trump literally dodges an assassin's bullet soon before making a surprise pick of Ohio senator J. D. Vance as his running mate; followed by President Biden unexpectedly ending his reelection bid and Vice President Kamala Harris swiftly becoming the Democratic Party's presumptive presidential nominee. Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster do their best to make sense of these summertime blockbusters, including whether Harris alters her party's course (triangulate or double down on the past four years?); the pros and cons of Trump-brand nationalism and that philosophy's hold over a restyled Republican Party; Vance's qualifications for national office; plus cautionary tales from Biden's lone presidential term and the chances of more surprises to come before Election Day in America.  

The Dispatch's Jonah Goldberg joins Good Fellows to discuss his differences with Niall Ferguson's Soviet America essay, the Biden/Trump gerontocracy, and the European elections. Also, can someone help Niall choose a dog?

How do a historian, an economist, and a geostrategist make the best use of their summers? In an abbreviated GoodFellows, Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster reveal a few of their summertime preferences: favorite leisurely pursuits (land, air, and sea), their go-to foods and drinks, family gatherings (all three are grandparents), recommended books and movies, plus what research and writing lies ahead (plenty of writing and travel). Among the revelations: summer aficionados they are, streaming “vidiots” they're not; plus, on a conflicting Fourth of July, a dual citizen's “special relationship” with his native UK and adopted America.

A new “cold war” presents a familiar challenge for America: how to curb a rival great power's ambitions. Matt Pottinger, a Hoover Institution visiting fellow and editor of the forthcoming book The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss how best to discourage China from moving on its island neighbor. After that: the fellows debate the wisdom of the UK's fast-tracked national election; plus what, if anything, has surprised them during this year's round of episodes (spoiler alert: plenty of chickens—bad policies, poorly run universities—came home to roost).

Historians differ over the need to explore “counterfactuals”—the study of scenarios that never happened—and what they can tell us about historical causation. Stephen Kotkin, the Hoover Institution's Kleinheinz Senior Fellow and noted historian of Russia, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss alternative historical outcomes: Stalin not surviving a two-front invasion in World War II and Churchill dying well beforehand; the American Revolution failing; the Beatles never spearheading pop music's British Invasion; a Trump victory in 2020 and its potential effect on the current state of affairs in Ukraine and the Middle East; plus a world in which COVID never happened (spoiler alert: it might have impacted John and Niall's book sales).

Did Israel's failure to anticipate Hamas's surprise attack in October 2023 stem from an overreliance on technical rather than human intelligence gathering? And is TikTok really a national security threat to America? Amy Zegart, the Hoover Institution's Morris Arnold and Nona Jean Cox Senior Fellow and author of Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss Israel's intel failure, whether TikTok is the menace it's portrayed to be, plus how spy films (wrongly) shape the public's view on espionage. Next the fellows discuss the driving forces behind campus unrest across the US and how long the movement will last, followed by a series of other discussions: rebutting anti-American sentiment; the best fast-food burger; the popularity of “Austrian school” economics in South America; and the likely winner were Niall, John, and H.R. to slug it out in a UFC octagon (spoiler alert: Niall and John don't like their chances). 

Nearly 40 years since the nation last saw comprehensive reform on the matter, the consensus is that America's immigration system is sorely in need of updating to 21st-century realities. Reihan Salam, Manhattan Institute president and author of the book Melting Pot or Civil War?, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss a smarter approach to welcoming newcomers to America. After that: the fellows discuss the ramifications of Iran's not-so-surprise missile assault on Israel and what the coming months portend for those warring nations. Finally, John and H.R. (and a few surprise guests) welcome Niall to his “swinging 60s”—Hoover's “international man of history” officially a sexagenarian on the same day this show was recorded. 

As the six-month anniversary of Hamas's attack on Israel approaches, what to expect next in that struggle—and is the American president and Israeli prime minister's working relationship beyond repair? New York Times columnist Bret Stephens joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss the war's possible expansion into southern Lebanon and Stephens's vision of a rebuilt Gaza as a Mediterranean version of Dubai. After that, a celebration of four years since GoodFellows' “shelter-in place” debut, including a little boasting (they saw inflation coming), a little contrition (they didn't see Trump rebounding), and some big takeaways on geopolitics, economics, and the pandemic's legacy.

Facing hot wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and a prolonged cold war in East Asia, how does America adapt its military strategy and resources—and in which direction? Elbridge Colby, former Defense Department assistant secretary and cofounder of the Marathon Initiative, which studies great-power competition, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and H.R. McMaster to discuss his contention that rearming America's military in anticipation of an eventual Chinese move on Taiwan takes priority over conflicts in Ukraine and Israel. Following that: the fellows weigh in on the merits of a forced sale of TikTok by its Chinese owners, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's calling for an early election in Israel, plus how to find one's soulmate offline (plot spoiler: try attending an intellectual “slap up” dinner, or getting concussed in a rugby match).

Following Super Tuesday's results, with the US presidential election still the better part of eight months away, a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is all but certain. Victor Davis Hanson, the Hoover Institution's Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow and author of the soon-to-be-released book The End of Everything: How Wars Descend into Annihilation, joins Hoover senior fellows John Cochrane and H.R. McMaster to discuss where Biden and Trump stand on “shrinkflation” and the US economy, America's involvement in overseas conflicts, plus the likelihood of Democrats replacing a struggling Biden at their August national convention and Trump running a disciplined campaign despite his legal travails.

Why did Vladimir Putin call for an “inter-Palestinian meeting” in Moscow? And has Israel drawn a red line regarding a hostage release and an assault on the Gazan city of Rafah? Dan Senor, host of the Call Me Back podcast and author of two books on Israel, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson (live from Jerusalem) and John Cochrane to discuss the moving parts and global ramifications of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Following that: remembering the late Alexei Navalny and what the future holds for Russian political opposition amid Putin-brand fascism; America's “trust” credit rating as it reneges on promises to friends and allies; plus George Washington's recent demotion to third-greatest of all US presidents.

While the American reprisal against Iranian proxies across the Middle East is impressive in its harnessing of firepower, technology, and intelligence, does it advance the goals of deterrence and de-escalation? Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster discuss the pros and cons of the current US strategy and their concerns over the lack of an apparent end game. Following that: a conversation about Donald Trump's  appeal to voters and his detractors' inability to understand his populist resonance (the subject of a recent John Cochrane Wall Street Journal op-ed); how best to revitalize African nations; plus Niall's annual abhorrence of Super Bowl Sunday (spoiler alert: he's not a “Swiftie”).

This installment of GoodFellows is devoted to audience questions—viewers and listeners putting Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster through their intellectual paces. Among the topics broached: a possible re-embrace of Western heritage; the same pre–World War I mentality that dismissed the likelihood of a global conflict potentially enabling a third world war; India and Pakistan's economic and geostrategic outlooks; Donald Trump's second-term objectives, should he be reelected; and Argentinian president Javier Milei's pro-market “shock therapy” and his World Economic Forum “special address” dressing down Davos attendees. Viewers also asked: Why not a fellows' blues band? Might Niall consider adding a little profanity to his profundity?

The new year begins with a continuation of three topics that figured prominently in 2023: escalating hostilities in the Middle East; a possible return to more traditional higher education after shake-ups at several elite American universities; plus the uncertainty of certain economic assumptions (in 2023, a much-prophesied recession that never materialized). Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, H.R. McMaster, and John Cochrane also discuss the odds of Cold War 2 morphing into World War III; whether economic conditions will overshadow fearmongering in a grim Trump-Biden referendum (in Niall's words: the choice of “empire or republic”); the best use of this leap year's spare day; plus why King Charles III would choose to break with tradition by spending a “dry” January in a very wet Scotland.

Failing to unequivocally denounce students' calls for Jewish genocide has cost one university president her job and raises questions as to whether the current levels of anti-Semitic vitriol and political activism inside America's elite schools suggests parallels to Nazi Germany. Bari Weiss, founder of the Free Press and host of the Honestly podcast, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, H.R. McMaster, and John Cochrane to discuss when and why America's universities went astray and how to separate scholarship from political agendas.

As the US prepares for a presidential vote (Iowans caucusing in fewer than 50 days) and a temporary truce halts the Israel-Hamas conflict, long-term uncertainty seems the order of the day. Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal political columnist and the “architect” behind George W. Bush's presidential runs, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson. H.R. McMaster, and John Cochrane to discuss the odds of a Biden-Trump rematch. Next the three fellows analyze the latest in the Middle East, including the peril of a broader regional conflict and the potential for eradicating Hamas. Finally, a “lightning round“ explores Vladimir Putin's peace overtures, Sam Altman's return to OpenAI, an ascendant Right on two continents, plus the legacy of the soon-to-be-touring Rolling Stones (Niall having no sympathy for any devil who doesn't recognize the Stones as the greatest rock band).

Two conflicts present two challenges: a Ukrainian counteroffensive turned stalemate; and Israel's survival as it confronts Hamas (and possibly Hezbollah and Iran). Russ Roberts, Hoover's John and Jean De Nault Research Fellow and president of Jerusalem's Shalem College, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson. H.R. McMaster, and John Cochrane to discuss Israel's morale and strategic choices amid a month-long wartime crisis. Then Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commanding general of US Army Europe, makes the case for anticipating a positive outcome—Ukraine expelling Russian forces, winning back its land—in a war nearing its 21-month mark.

Ian Rowe, an American Enterprise Institute senior fellow and cofounder of the Bronx-based Vertex Partnership Academies, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss the future of public education and charter schools' role in the quest for better outcomes. What lessons does a virtues-based public charter high school in New York City offer to the ideal of education as a path to life success? Ian Rowe, an American Enterprise Institute senior fellow and cofounder of the Bronx-based Vertex Partnership Academies, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss the future of public education and charter schools' role in the quest for better outcomes. After that: Niall and John weigh in on the potential for economic turmoil in a time of global instability; a hypothetical outsider as House Speaker; plus their like and dislike of the Olympic Games.

As Israel and Ukraine struggle for survival, a newer “axis of ill will”—formed by Russia, China and Iran—sows discord around the globe. Stephen Kotkin, the Hoover Institution's Kleinheinz Senior Fellow and a vaunted historian, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to assess options abroad and parallels to the past (are we reliving the 1930s, the 1970s, or both?). The trio then dons their speechwriters' hats to suggest how President Biden can capture the moral high ground. The trio then discusses how President Biden can capture the moral high ground when he makes public statements about the crisis and America's response to it.