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In a special “mailbag” episode, Hoover senior fellows Sir Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster answer audience questions. Among the topics (after a brief opening segment devoted to the latest in the Iran-US impasse – aka, “Schrödinger's ceasefire”): who are today's great leaders; is “the American experiment” doomed, as some intellectuals posit; China's move to gold from dollar-denominated securities; the futures of the European Union and the UK's Reform movement; North Korea's relative silence; the cooled-down rhetoric of climate change; whether our PhD-wielding historians bother with televised historical dramas; thoughts on gentlemen-scholars' sartorial style (“buy [clothes] when you're a graduate student and wear them until they fall apart”); plus managerial lessons to be drawn from the recent successes of Sir Niall's beloved Arsenal football club. Subscribe to GoodFellows for clarity on today's biggest social, economic, and geostrategic shifts — only on GoodFellows.
Let us know your thoughts.What does it take for New Zealand manufacturing to compete on the world stage? In this episode, we sit down with John Cochrane, a seasoned manufacturing leader with global experience across the US, China, and New Zealand. John shares insights from his career working in complex, high-tech manufacturing environments, offering a unique perspective on what makes New Zealand businesses capable of solving some of the world's toughest challenges.We get into what New Zealand does well, where we tend to hold ourselves back, and why the way we show up internationally matters more than we think. From building trust and relationships through to leadership and long-term thinking, John brings a grounded view on what it really takes to grow beyond our local market. It's a practical look at how Kiwi businesses can step up, back themselves, and compete globally.For more B2B insights, ideas and opportunities, head to www.blueoceanagency.co.nzSubscribeWhen you subscribe to B2B Inspired, you're playing a key role in growing and supporting New Zealand's B2B Marketing Community. Share Your FeedbackGot something to say? We're all ears. Your voice is what powers this community – it can't grow without you. Connect with Us LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/blueocean-agency/ Website: https://www.blueoceanagency.co.nz/podcast/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@WeDoB2BLet's roll up our sleeves and take on tomorrow together.
Economics professor John Cochrane discusses the limits of government borrowing. Is public debt sustainable? What caused the latest inflation episode?
The Trump administration has elevated the strategic importance of the Western Hemisphere to the United States at a time when countries in the region are turning away from leftist populism. Can dollarization play a key role in achieving stability and growth in Latin America? John Cochrane, David Malpass, and Emilio Ocampo will discuss the benefits of dollarization to Latin American countries with a history of bad monetary policy, why dollarization in the Americas would be good for the United States, and how adopting the dollar as the legal currency has worked out in Panama, Ecuador, and El Salvador. The speakers will discuss ways of dollarizing and why that reform is especially relevant to Argentina and Venezuela today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
As part of the Hoover Institution's ongoing USA@250 celebration of the founding of the American republic, a live GoodFellows episode recorded on the campus of Stanford University focusing on the US Constitution – in tech terms, America's “operating system”. Goodfellows regulars Sir Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane and Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster discuss the root causes of the American Revolution (taxation without representation, though the Scottish-born panelist contends the colonists in fact had a “fantastic deal”), the Constitution's underlying principles (recognizing but not granting rights), why a document that's more “machinery” than “visionary” in its design has stood the test of time, plus whether several provisions within the original framework and its 27 amendments (presidential eligibility, gun rights, “birthright citizenship”) need updating a world the Founding Fathers couldn't imagine. Subscribe to GoodFellows for clarity on today's biggest social, economic, and geostrategic shifts — only on GoodFellows.
Patrick Bet-David, Jeff Snider, and Brandon Aceto are joined by the Hoover Institute's John Cochrane as they cover the UAE exiting OPEC and global oil implications, Trump's currency swap hint with the UAE and meeting with King Charles III, debate over the U.S. leaving NATO, Trump rejecting an Iran peace deal, Elon Musk on AI and robots fixing the U.S. deficit and his clash with Sam Altman in the OpenAI lawsuit, and California's billionaire tax ballot measure.------
In this episode, William Green talks with Matthew McLennan, who oversees about $130 billion at First Eagle Investments. Matt is head of the firm's Global Value team & a portfolio manager of its Global Value, Global Equity, International Value, International Equity & US Value strategies. Here, he explores how to build resilient wealth by patiently holding a “non-uniform” portfolio of scarce assets that should endure & prosper even in difficult conditions. This episode provides a time-tested survival strategy for investors looking to navigate this period of extreme uncertainty. IN THIS EPISODE YOU'LL LEARN: 00:00:00 - Intro00:02:14 - Why Matthew McLennan thinks investors should prepare for turmoil.00:17:43 - How to construct a resilient portfolio by thinking like a gardener.00:19:38 - Why Matt loves businesses with scarce assets in mundane industries.00:23:02 - Why survival is the key to investment success.00:23:33 - How cash & gold provide a ballast in the event of unexpected storms.00:26:28 - Why he's wary of a highly concentrated investment strategy.00:51:07 - How patience has become a powerful edge in a hyperactive world.00:57:17 - How to build long-term success by focusing on process, not rewards.01:05:28 - How to think better by harnessing our right-brain capabilities.01:23:05 - Why “what's hot today” is likely to produce terrible investment returns.01:25:10 - How studying wine & playing backgammon help him as an investor.01:29:04 - Why he favors a team-based approach, instead of being a lone wolf. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community. Learn how to join us in Omaha for the Berkshire meeting here. Inquire about William Green's Richer, Wiser, Happier Masterclass. Thucydides' book, History of the Peloponnesian War. Daniel Yergin's book, The Prize. John Cochrane's book, The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level. Peter Matthiessen's book, The Snow Leopard. Iain McGilchrist's book, The Matter with Things. David Galenson's book, Old Masters and Young Geniuses. Charles de Montesquieu's book, The Spirit of the Laws. Stephen Wolfram's book, A New Kind of Science. Winston Churchill's book, My Early Life. William Green's book, Richer, Wiser, Happier. Follow William Green on X. Related books mentioned in the podcast. Ad-free episodes on our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses through The Intrinsic Value Newsletter. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Follow our official social media accounts: X | LinkedIn | Facebook. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: HardBlock Human Rights Foundation Plus500 Shopify Netsuite Vanta References to any third-party products, services, or advertisers do not constitute endorsements, and The Investor's Podcast Network is not responsible for any claims made by them. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
11. HEADLINE: The Impact of War and Oil Shocks on Global Interest Rates GUEST:John Cochrane SUMMARY: Professor John Cochrane explains how oil shocks and inflation fears drive up long-term bond rates. He warns that bad policy responses, like price caps, can turn price shocks into sustained inflation. (11)1935 AL LISAFAH
12. HEADLINE: Federal Reserve Policy and the Risks of Stagflation GUEST: John Cochrane SUMMARY: The Federal Reserve is adopting a "wait and see" approach to the current oil shock. Cochrane warns against repeating 1970s mistakes, such as credit controls or failing to act decisively against inflation. (12)1935 KHURMA KARIN
3. Economist John Cochrane warns that government subsidies for high gas prices compound oil shocks into inflation. Comparing current trends to 1979, he argues that price controls lead to shortages, while free-market incentives are necessary to encourage production and efficient consumption. (3)1906 TROTSKY ON TRIAL WITH CO-DEFENDANT REVOLUTIONARIES
In this episode of Money & Meaning, Jeff Bernier examines how geopolitical conflict influences oil and gasoline prices, drawing on perspectives from economist John Cochrane and JPMorgan's Michael Cembalest. He explains how war creates supply shocks, why energy markets react quickly, and how those effects ripple through inflation and the broader economy. Jeff also outlines why the U.S. is less vulnerable today and what investors should focus on when uncertainty rises. Topics covered: How war creates supply shocks in global oil markets Risk premiums, sanctions, and policy responses affecting energy prices The structure and limitations of global energy supply Why fossil fuels still dominate and renewable transition is slow How rising oil prices impact inflation and the broader economy The U.S. energy shift due to shale production and reduced import reliance Historical policy mistakes during energy crises Why price controls and subsidies can worsen outcomes The cyclical nature of energy shocks and market adjustment over time Investor perspective: diversification and avoiding macro speculation Building portfolios that can withstand geopolitical uncertainty Useful Links: Jeff Bernier on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/jeffberniercfp_the-money-and-meaning-show-activity-7202103509700227072-h0Qn/ TandemGrowth Financial Advisors: https://www.tandemgrowth.com/ Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)
PREVIEW FOR LATER. Guest: John Cochrane. Cochrane discusses economic impacts of oil price shocks. He warns that political interference like price controls and taxes fails to increase supply, instead causing shortages, gas lines, and inefficient resource distribution. (1)XERXES THE FIRST OF PERSIA
If unexpected wars and oil shocks have been big features of recent history, so too are economic recessions – another downturn perhaps ahead in 2026. Tyler Goodspeed, a former Hoover Institution fellow and author of the forthcoming book, Recession: The Real Reasons Economies Shrink and What To Do About It, joins GoodFellows regulars Sir Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster for a tutorial on economic conditions and lessons past and present. After that: The three fellows discuss the latest in the Iran conflict including the feasibility of a peace agreement by week's end as demanded by President Trump, the odds of land forces entering the equation in the near future, plus possible economic hardship ahead should the fighting linger. Finally, in the “lightning round”: why the late Stanford biologist Paul Erlich was so amiss in predicting a doomed planet (not unlike climate alarmists) and H.R.'s favorite Chuck Norris jokes in honor of the recent passing of the famed Hollywood tough guy. Subscribe to GoodFellows for clarity on today's biggest social, economic, and geostrategic shifts — only on GoodFellows.
Does the current conflict in the Middle East suggest that America has learned from its recent past wars? Hoover Institution Director and former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice joins GoodFellows regulars Sir Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane and Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster to discuss the prospects of an oil “shock” prompted by a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz as well as a political “shock” back in the US when voters go to the polls in November, China and Russia's losses in terms of stature and friendly regimes, plus what the Anthropic-Pentagon legal kerfuffle suggests about the role of emerging technology in history's first AI-enabled war and the problems in being portrayed as a societal menace. Afterwards: the fellows reflect on the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations, billionaires in the crosshairs of the “affordability” debate, and why they won't be watching the upcoming Academy Awards. Subscribe to GoodFellows for clarity on today's biggest social, economic, and geostrategic shifts — only on GoodFellows.
A week into US and Israeli military operations against Iran, where does the conflict stand? GoodFellows regulars Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane and H.R. McMaster discuss the odds of hostilities expanding, what the aftermath of “regime alteration” might resemble, a possible economic backlash should energy prices spike, plus a geopolitical shock felt in Beijing and Moscow. Subscribe to GoodFellows for clarity on today's biggest social, economic, and geostrategic shifts — only on GoodFellows.
As his self-proclaimed 10-day window for dealing with Iran approaches its end, what are President Trump's options? GoodFellows regulars Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster weigh the merits of a US military strike versus an interim diplomatic solution. They also probe the Epstein scandal's impact on the British landscape and the Supreme Court's ruling against the Trump administration's use of emergency powers for tariff implementation. Later, in the “lightning round”: why US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was warmly received at the Munich Security Conference; the Pentagon's desire to sever academic ties with Harvard University; Barack Obama's suggesting that aliens exist; plus H.R.'s remembrance of film great Robert Duvall, aka Apocalypse Now's Lt. Col. Bill “I Love the Smell of Napalm in the Morning” Kilgore. Subscribe to GoodFellows for clarity on today's biggest social, economic, and geostrategic shifts — only on GoodFellows.
President Trump recently nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. In October 2022, Kevin spoke on What Happens Next along with my old boss Myron Scholes who was the recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economics.In this episode I include excerpts from that previous meeting as well as an additional interview with John Cochrane who is a Professor of Finance and Economics at Stanford's Graduate School of Business and a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institute, and he will discuss the challenges that Kevin will face in his new job. Get full access to What Happens Next in 6 Minutes with Larry Bernstein at www.whathappensnextin6minutes.com/subscribe
Jorge Fontevecchia en entrevista con el economista John Cochrane.
Truman, the Fed, and the 1951 Accord. Professor John Cochrane explores the 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord during the Korean War. Fearing another World War II-style crisis, President Harry Truman pressured Fed Chairman Thomas McCabe to keep interest rates low. Instead, the Fed fought for its independence to combat inflation, establishing modern monetary policy precedents. #31918 AMERICANS IN LONDON
Modern Lessons from the Fed-Treasury Accord. Drawing parallels between 1951 and today, John Cochrane examines the tension between presidential administrations and the Federal Reserve during crises. He emphasizes that the Fed must maintain its independence, warning against perpetually funding government spending and urging a strict focus on inflation control over politically motivated easy money. #41918 VERDUN
Unlike the romanticized tale the Chinese Communist Party tells of itself—long marches and a long game of outlasting and outwitting its foes—the early years of the CCP were ones of unrepentant violence and a rise to power made possible only with external help. Frank Dikötter, the Hoover Institution's Milias Senior Fellow and author of the forthcoming book, Red Dawn over China: How Communism Conquered a Quarter of Humanity, joins GoodFellows regulars Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane and H.R. McMaster to discuss what shaped the CCP from the years 1921–1949, plus parallels between Xi Jinping and Mao Zedong in terms of amassing power, purging rivals, and practicing economics and geopolitics. After that: the fellows debate the assertion by a New York Times columnist that Donald Trump has “lost the country,” as well as how much faith to put in economic indicators, plus songstress Billie Eilish's belief that “no one is illegal on stolen land.” Subscribe to GoodFellows for clarity on today's biggest social, economic, and geostrategic shifts — only on GoodFellows.
Guest: John Cochrane. Cochrane discusses the demand for foreign investment, examining how capital flows impact the U.S. economy and the complexities of managing trade imbalances.1925 DUTCH MARINES IN SHANGHAI
Guest: John Cochrane. Cochrane analyzes the inadequacy of tariffs as an economic tool, explaining why they fail to achieve their intended goals and often harm domestic consumers and businesses1965 SHANGHAI
Donald Trump's drop-in at the World Economic Forum and the ensuing kerfuffle between the American president and the attending globalist elites raises the question: Who is winning on the world stage, Trump or his foes—or do they have more in common than is commonly recognized? Tyler Cowen, an economist, blogger, and Free Press columnist, joins GoodFellows regulars Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss Trump's third presidential visit to the Davos, Switzerland, lion's den, plus the rise of “democratic socialism” and “affordability politics” embodied in the ethos of New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani. After that: the three fellows discuss lessons from Minneapolis in the aftermath of two protestors shot to death by federal immigration agents; the odds of American military strikes against Iran; the significance of China's latest military purge; plus whether the show's resident historians are comfortable with the (over)use of phrase “the right side of history.” Subscribe to GoodFellows for clarity on today's biggest social, economic, and geostrategic shifts — only on GoodFellows.
As Iran's theocracy teeters on the brink, the question turns to what the Trump administration's abiding interest in other bad regimes (Venezuela, Cuba, Colombia) and its appetite for land acquisitions (greenbacks for Greenland?) say about the American president's worldview. GoodFellows regulars Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster discuss policy options for Iran now that protests have turned tragic; the relative silence from the same campus leftists who fervently protested the war in Gaza; Nixonian echoes in Trump's foreign policy; plus Secretary of State Marco Rubio's emergence as a geopolitical jack-of-all-trades. In the second segment, John weighs in on the significance of the Justice Department's criminal investigation into Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell; H.R. contends America's designs on Greenland are no laughing matter; and Sir Niall previews what to expect from Trump's appearance at the upcoming World Economic Forum in Davos. Finally, GoodFellows' resident “Deadhead” bids a fond farewell to the late Bob Weir, guitarist and cofounder of the Grateful Dead. Subscribe to GoodFellows for clarity on today's biggest social, economic, and geostrategic shifts — only on GoodFellows.
Neste episódio do "Conversa com Zé Márcio", José Márcio Camargo bate um papo com André Lara Resende sobre os desafios da economia brasileira. Um dos mentores do Plano Real, Resende questiona a visão tradicional do mercado e defende que o fiscal e o monetário são, na verdade, faces da mesma moeda e devem ser geridos em conjunto. Ele explica como a dívida pública funciona como riqueza para o setor privado e alerta que o atual nível dos juros reais é um entrave insustentável ao nosso crescimento.DIRETO AO PONTO00:00 – Introdução e as vantagens de operar na Genial 01:08 – Zé Márcio recebe André Lara Resende 01:55 – A visão dogmática sobre políticas fiscal e monetária 02:50 – Crítica ao "Treasury View" e o papel do investimento público 05:05 – Por que não há mais diferença entre moeda e dívida pública? 06:47 – O Banco Central realmente controla a quantidade de moeda? 07:45 – O poder de emissão dos bancos comerciais via crédito 08:36 – Metas de inflação, Regra de Taylor e o vácuo conceitual 11:50 – O fim da Curva de Phillips e o impacto dos juros na recessão 13:53 – A "potência" da política monetária no Brasil e crédito subsidiado 15:16 – Entendendo a Dívida Pública como Ativo do Setor Privado 18:22 – A "Fada da Dívida" e a crítica aos limites de endividamento 21:08 – Investimento vs. Poupança: A importância do crédito 24:46 – Ineficiência do Estado e o custo da burocracia no Brasil 26:08 – O "escárnio" da taxa de juros real brasileira 27:52 – O dogmatismo acadêmico e a reificação dos modelos econômicos 31:40 – Teoria Fiscal do Nível de Preços (FTPL) e John Cochrane 33:52 – A condição essencial: Taxa de juros (R) menor que crescimento (G) 36:20 – Carga tributária e o custo de compliance no Brasil 38:40 – O governo gasta muito porque a taxa de juros é alta? 40:58 – Proposta: A unificação das políticas fiscal e monetária
American special forces capture Venezuela's president and his wife in a daring nighttime operation, returning the deposed first couple to the US to stand trial for alleged narcoterrorism. Meanwhile, protests in Iran over worsening living conditions, coupled with a cratered economy, threaten that theocracy's future. GoodFellows regulars Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster kick off 2026 by discussing both the precedent and the consequences of the move on Maduro, whether other nations (i.e. China) will invoke their own “Monroe Doctrines” to justify regional power grabs, plus the chances of similar fates awaiting Greenland, Colombia, or Cuba. After that: the panel's thoughts on whether Iran's regime is in its dying days as conditions on the ground deteriorate; and the chances of political transformation spreading worldwide in 2026—a là the end of the first Cold War—potential signposts of freedom as America celebrates 250 years of individual liberty. Finally, the fellows send their best wishes to a pair of GoodFellows guests—former Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse and Hoover's Victor Davis Hanson—as the two gentlemen do battle with cancer. Subscribe to GoodFellows for clarity on today's biggest social, economic, and geostrategic shifts — only on GoodFellows.
Andy is joined by Dr. John Cochrane, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, for a deep dive into fiscal theory, inflation, and the forces shaping today's global economy. Dr. Cochrane explains the fiscal theory of the price level and why inflation is ultimately driven by government debt and confidence in government bonds. Using the Eurozone as a case study, he explores the challenges of maintaining a monetary union without a corresponding fiscal or political union. The conversation also turns to artificial intelligence, examining how AI may disrupt employment in the short term while increasing productivity, wealth, and long-term economic growth. What You'll Learn in This Episode: - What the fiscal theory of the price level really says about inflation - Why government debt and credibility matter more than money printing alone - The Fed's role in balancing monetary and fiscal policy - Why the Euro highlights risks of monetary union without fiscal unity - How AI could reshape jobs, productivity, and economic growth Action Items - Explore Dr. John Cochrane's (available on Amazon) - Visit johnhcochrane.com for essays and free materials on fiscal theory Want to Learn More? Visit cashflowbonus.com to access free investing resources, including the ebook and action items discussed in this episode.
Nearly a century ago, after years of investors on a champagne high and warning signs ignored, a stock market crash led to a descent into a global depression. Andrew Ross Sorkin, a New York Times financial journalist and author of the bestseller 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History—and How It Shattered a Nation, joins GoodFellows regulars Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss how the events of 1929 resonate to this day, what's misunderstood about the fabled crash, whether Herbert Hoover (only seven months into his presidency when disaster struck) gets a fair shake, plus what the future holds for Federal Reserve independence, the bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery, and Wall Street's relationship with Washington. After that: The three fellows look back on 2025 with their choices for individual of the year, the most significant or ignored stories, what they learned in 2025, plus predictions and resolutions for the new year. Finally, a surprise visit by Hoover Institution visiting fellow Kris Kringle, who asks the panel for its holiday wishes (oddly enough, H.R. is never around when jolly old St. Nick shows up). Subscribe to GoodFellows for clarity on today's biggest social, economic, and geostrategic shifts — only on GoodFellows.
Two institutional sectors are in both steady and rapid decline in terms of public trust: Congress and academia. Ben Sasse, former US senator from Nebraska and president of two universities, joins GoodFellows regulars Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss what ails Congress and how to fix it (based on his eight years in the Senate), plus how America's educational system has set a low bar for readying students for higher learning and life after college. Next the three fellows weigh the merits of the Trump administration's new National Security Strategy and what strategy there is (or isn't) regarding Venezuela and drug trafficking; the shortcomings of fuel-efficiency standards; whether they'd buy an American-made “tiny car” (no way, says our resident former tank driver); and, with the World Cup coming to America in 2026, how to clear up the confusion between US-brand “football” and the international “beautiful game” that goes by the same name (Sir Niall's solution: Change US football to “armored rugby”). Subscribe to GoodFellows for clarity on today's biggest social, economic, and geostrategic shifts — only on GoodFellows.
Is the bitter war in Ukraine soon to wind down now that a peace settlement is being negotiated (think a Panmunjom-style compromise, not Munich-style appeasement), and how should America prepare for economic and military parity with China? In an episode devoted solely to viewers' questions, Hoover senior fellows Sir Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane and H.R. McMaster delve into matters ranging from those somber (allaying twenty-somethings' climate alarmism, “ideal” interest rates, the future of tank warfare as well as AI's redesign of future workforces) to those more lighthearted (H.R.'s service nickname, the artist behind John's wall hangings, and how the fellows would ride out a future pandemic). Finally, on the eve of America's Thanksgiving holiday, the fellows count their blessings – especially “Papa” Ferguson, who recently joined John (aka, “Blah-Blah” to his grandchildren) and H.R. (likewise, his grandkids' “Papa”) as a first-time grandfather. Subscribe to GoodFellows for clarity on today's biggest social, economic, and geostrategic shifts — only on GoodFellows.
Tariffs as a Consumer Tax and the Inflationary Impact Guest: Professor John Cochrane Professor John Cochrane explains that tariffs effectively function as a tax on American consumers and create a temporary bump in inflation throughout the economy. Retailers are currently absorbing substantial cost increases but will likely pass these expenses on to consumers after the Christmas holiday season. Cochrane notes the Federal Reserve faces a challenging policy dilemma: tariffs increase prices, yet there is mounting political pressure to lower interest rates. He characterizes tariffs as a potentially costly geopolitical weapon with uncertain strategic benefits. 1917
Tariffs as a Consumer Tax and the Inflationary Impact Guest: Professor John Cochrane Professor John Cochrane explains that tariffs effectively function as a tax on American consumers and create a temporary bump in inflation throughout the economy. Retailers are currently absorbing substantial cost increases but will likely pass these expenses on to consumers after the Christmas holiday season. Cochrane notes the Federal Reserve faces a challenging policy dilemma: tariffs increase prices, yet there is mounting political pressure to lower interest rates. He characterizes tariffs as a potentially costly geopolitical weapon with uncertain strategic benefits.
At a time of “hot wars” across the globe, there's also an ideological “cold war” featuring two foes: those who embrace freedom and those who oppress it. Michael McFaul, the Hoover Institution's Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow and author of the newly released Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, America, Russia and the New Global Disorder, joins GoodFellows regulars John Cochrane and Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster to discuss where he departs from the Trump administration on its approach to Russia and China (one autocracy economically dwarfing the other), his suggestions for course change, and why he holds “guarded” optimism for America's future. After that: John and H.R. go “trick-or-treating”—weighing the pros (“treats”) and cons (“tricks”) of a new White House ballroom, a Chinese military purge, the latest inflation numbers and gold prices that no longer glitter, a CEO's tariff worries, New York City on a non-hallowed eve of “democratic socialism,” plus a new and tougher American citizenship test (could Sir Niall Ferguson pass it?). Finally, as Halloween approaches, John and H.R. give us their go-to candies. Subscribe to GoodFellows for clarity on today's biggest social, economic, and geostrategic shifts — only on GoodFellows.
PREVIEW: Tariffs, Inflation, and the Federal Reserve Guest: John Cochrane John Cochrane discusses the Federal Reserve's dilemma regarding tariffs and inflation. Tariffs are expected to cause a one-time rise in prices, which the Fed may overlook, but this complicates efforts to control persistent inflation, currently stuck at 3%. The President is seeking lower interest rates primarily to reduce debt service costs, adding pressure on the Fed to ease its stance. The challenge lies in distinguishing between temporary price increases from tariffs and underlying structural inflation that requires sustained monetary restraint. This dynamic tension between political demands and Federal Reserve independence remains a critical concern for economic policy moving forward.
A hostage return and the signing of a cease-fire agreement signal a new chapter in the long-running dream of peace in the Middle East. Did it matter that the key negotiators, on the US side, were financiers and real-estate developers rather than scions of America's diplomatic corps? Russell Berman, a Hoover Institution senior fellow and codirector of Hoover's Working Group on the Middle East and the Islamic World, joins GoodFellows regulars Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss the sturdiness of the Trump White House's 20-point peace plan, the futures of Hamas and the Abraham Accords, the likelihood of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's reliving Winston Churchill's fate (a successful wartime leader rejected by a war-weary electorate), plus whether the “real estate-ism” approach to diplomacy is applicable to President Trump's upcoming meetings with his Russian and Chinese counterparts. After that, Niall and John reflect on the likelihood of a market crash (it is October, after all), the chances of a full-fledged tariff war with China, the merits of a US-Argentina currency swap, plus an ominous warning from the International Monetary Fund regarding global debt. Finally, the fellows salute the legendary economist Thomas Sowell, the subject of a Hoover Institution tribute later this month. Subscribe to GoodFellows for clarity on today's biggest social, economic, and geostrategic shifts — only on GoodFellows.
HEADLINE: Lessons from the Swiss National Bank: Risk-Taking, Exchange Rates, and Fiscal Responsibility GUEST NAME: John Cochrane SUMMARY: Economist John Cochrane analyzes the Swiss National Bank (SNB), noting it differs greatly from the US Federal Reserve by investing heavily in foreign stocks and bonds to manage the Swiss franc's exchange rate. The SNB's massive balance sheet carries risks accepted by Swiss taxpayers and the Cantons. Switzerland, being fiscally responsible (running no budget deficits), finds central banking easier. Cochrane advises that the US Fed should not be buying stocks or venturing into fiscal policy. 1890 SWISS
As a seemingly interminable conflict in Ukraine concludes its 43rd month of ground combat, aerial drone strikes, and stalemate, America's culture war enters a new phase with the assassination of conservative activist and Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk, followed by the suspension of late-night television host Jimmy Kimmel for an on-air comment made in the aftermath of Kirk's murder. GoodFellows regulars Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster discuss the current state of affairs in Ukraine (Sir Niall fresh off a visit to Kyiv), Kirk's murder as a watershed moment in a potential new cycle of political violence, plus whether America has reached a tipping point regarding free speech and government meddling for partisan benefit (our resident “grumpy economist” calling for the elimination of the Federal Communications Commission). Finally, a little sunshine (as in the Sundance Kid): the three fellows offering their favorite Robert Redford movies in honor of the recently deceased (and Scottish?) screen legend. Subscribe to GoodFellows for clarity on today's biggest social, economic, and geostrategic shifts — only on GoodFellows.
Professor John Cochrane of the Hoover Institution attributes current inflation to the fiscal theory of the price level. He explains that massive government spending, such as the $5 trillion borrowed during COVID-19 with $3 trillion printed by the Fed, combined with no credible plan for repayment, directly causes inflation. Cochrane differentiates this from monetarism, noting that quantitative easing (printing money and taking back bonds) did not lead to inflation. He emphasizes that the 2022 inflation spike was a loss of confidence in the government's ability to pay its debts. Successful disinflations, he argues, require a combination of monetary, fiscal, and microeconomic reforms. 1920 LANGLEY AERODROME
Professor John Cochrane of the Hoover Institution attributes current inflation to the fiscal theory of the price level. He explains that massive government spending, such as the $5 trillion borrowed during COVID-19 with $3 trillion printed by the Fed, combined with no credible plan for repayment, directly causes inflation. Cochrane differentiates this from monetarism, noting that quantitative easing (printing money and taking back bonds) did not lead to inflation. He emphasizes that the 2022 inflation spike was a loss of confidence in the government's ability to pay its debts. Successful disinflations, he argues, require a combination of monetary, fiscal, and microeconomic reforms. 1867
Is Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's embrace of his Russian and Chinese peers a mere signal of his displeasure with American tariff policy, or the beginning of a deeper geopolitical realignment? Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster discuss the significance of Modi's summitry with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. This leads into a broader conversation about Ukraine's durability (with Niall soon to visit Kyiv), as its conflict with Russia becomes a predominantly drone war. Also discussed: the question of power-wielding in Washington—the American president derided as a modern-day fascist for his use of executive authority; the differences between Trump Derangement Syndrome in the past versus the present; the Federal Reserve's independence (and sprawl); plus the merits of the federal government taking a 10% equity stake in chip manufacturer Intel. Finally, some bad news for our London fans: While the GoodFellows will be gathering in the UK's capital city, there are no plans for a rooftop concert à la the Beatles atop their Apple Corps building. Subscribe to GoodFellows for clarity on today's biggest social, economic, and geostrategic shifts — only on GoodFellows.
John Batchelor 09-03 segment 3.mp3 Guest: John Cochrane at the Hoover Institution. Federal Reserve Independence and Financial Regulation John Cochrane explores the complex debate on whether financial regulation should be integrated with or separated from monetary policy and less independent of Congress. He raises concerns about the Fed's independence, its failure to foresee the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, and the "too big to fail" phenomenon. Cochrane also discusses the risks of the Fed monetizing debt, its stance on stablecoins, and how its actions influence fiscal policy. 1906 PEKING
John Batchelor 09-03 segment 4.mp3 Guest: John Cochrane of the Hoover Institution. Reforming the Federal Reserve's Role John Cochrane addresses proposals to reorganize the Federal Reserve, questioning whether it should become more political or have its scope narrowed to monetary policy, his preferred option. He criticizes the Fed'spandemic response, specifically its decision to print trillions of dollars for deficits, which he argues was a choice leading to the 2022 inflation. Cochrane also examines the wisdom of Quantitative Easing (QE), suggesting it had limited economic impact but expanded the Fed's political influence. 1906 PEKING
Professor John Cochrane: Professor John Cochrane of Hoover Institution addresses the fervent debate over the Federal Reserve's independence, with critics from both political extremes advocating for more accountability. He points to the Fed's expanded activities since 2008, including "subsidizing Wall Street," and alleged missteps that contributed to inflation and a problematic housing market. Cochrane argues for a more limited Fed, focused strictly on inflation, to preserve its independence and public trust, suggesting that its broadened scope jeopardizes its core mission and credibility. 1888 BANK OF ENGLAND TEN POUND NOTE
CONTINUED Professor John Cochrane: Professor John Cochrane of Hoover Institution addresses the fervent debate over the Federal Reserve's independence, with critics from both political extremes advocating for more accountability. He points to the Fed's expanded activities since 2008, including "subsidizing Wall Street," and alleged missteps that contributed to inflation and a problematic housing market. Cochrane argues for a more limited Fed, focused strictly on inflation, to preserve its independence and public trust, suggesting that its broadened scope jeopardizes its core mission and credibility. 1897 BANK OF ENGLAND PARLOR
PREVIEW: CRYPTO: Colleague John Cochrane comments on the uses of stablecoins for asset management. More. 1954
What to expect from this week's Putin–Trump summit in Alaska? Hoover Institution Director and former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice—no stranger, she, to engaging in statecraft with Russia's enigmatic president—joins GoodFellows regulars Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster for a spirited conversation about Vladimir Putin's motives (is the summit only for domestic Russian consumption?), how to characterize the present US-Sino competition (Secretary Rice tossing cold water on “Cold War 2”), plus the sensibility of the Trump administration's threats to withhold federal research funds from leading universities in order to change campus cultures. Following that, Sir Niall recounts his recent sit-down with Argentinian president Javier Milei (is that nation's “vibe shift” real or contrived?); and tariff-agnostic John Cochrane assesses the progress of the Trump administration's ever-evolving trade strategy. Finally, the three panelists discuss the recent 80th anniversary of the only wartime use of atomic weapons and the importance of its annual remembrance.
In contrast to the 20th-century bosses of industry who ran America's big cities, New York City seems poised to elect an unabashed socialist with dreams of government-run bodegas, rent freezes, and wealth redistribution. Rick Caruso, noted Los Angeles real estate developer and possible political candidate in 2026, joins GoodFellows regulars and Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss the future of America's big cities—whether his other major cities will follow Gotham's lead, plus how to bring needed change to municipalities notoriously averse to innovation (and in LA's case, a city perhaps unprepared for the 2028 Summer Olympics). The three fellows next reflect on the Ukraine-Russia conflict, now entering its 42nd month with no end in sight, then engage in a “lightning round” that touches on Harvard's reported desire to create a Hoover Institution of its own; Hunter Biden's skewed take on illegal immigration; the Epstein scandal's effect on the MAGA movement; plus a “heated” debate over why Sir Niall and his countrymen choose to live without air conditioning. Recorded on July 22, 2025. Subscribe for clarity on today's biggest social, economic, and geostrategic shifts — only on GoodFellows.
How does a promising young scholar go from dreams of designing glider planes to the study of physics and then on to a celebrated career as one of the world's foremost monetary economists? In a “solo” installment of GoodFellows, John Cochrane—Hoover's Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson senior fellow and coauthor of the newly released Crisis Cycle: Challenges, Evolution, and Future of the Euro—discusses his academic journey, his mentors, and the fellow economists who've inspired him along the way; his ongoing concerns with inflation and debt; plus his interest in penning a follow-up to Milton Friedman's Free to Choose. Later, John takes part in a “Herbert Hoover Questionnaire,” in which he details proper airplane etiquette (if you occupy the window seat, raise the shade!), describes the virtues of his beloved family dog, and extols the culinary skills of his wife (author Elizabeth Fama, who makes a cameo appearance at the show's end for the couple's 39th wedding anniversary).
US forces launched bomb and missile strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, followed soon by an Iran-Israel ceasefire and the beginning of what could be a diplomatic realignment across the Middle East. The GoodFellows regulars and Hoover Senior Fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and former White House National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster discuss the collateral impact of the Trump administration's move against the Iranian regime. The fallout includes: a possible expansion of Abraham Accords participants (as the Gulf States help Iran pursue a more peaceful nuclear program); NATO members willing to invest more in military readiness; the media's second-guessing the effectiveness and wisdom of the B2 sorties; plus what message Trump's use of military might—as opposed to revolving-door diplomacy—sends to the world's various mischief-making capitals (Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang). Recorded on June 27, 2025.
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