Podcast appearances and mentions of John Cochrane

Crisis Cycle: Challenges, Evolution, and Future of the Euro (Princeton UP, 2025) John Cochrane Luis Garicano Klaus Masuch PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS, 2025 Launched 26 years ago, the euro was never expected to have an easy life but it wasn't supposed to be this hard. A three-year solvency crisis, a string of bailouts, and a rescue by the European Central Bank (ECB) was followed by threats of deflation, negative interest rates, massive purchases of government debt, a global pandemic, a European land war, and an inflation surge. The euro area emerged from these tests but may not survive the next without reforms during this period of relative calm. In Crisis Cycle, economists John Cochrane, Luis Garicano, and Klaus Masuch call for critical reforms to rebuild the system's incentive structure and stop the ECB's unsought mission creep. "A beautiful ship was constructed," they write. "Out at sea, it ran into severe storms. Its captain and crew patched the holes as best they could. Now though it is time to return to the dry dock and fix the ship properly". John Cochrane is a professor of economics at Stanford University, best-known for his work on asset prices and the fiscal theory of the price level. Luis Garicano is an economics professor at the London School of Economics and former vice-chair of the Renew group in the European Parliament. Klaus Masuch recently retired from the ECB, where he was head of the monetary policy strategy department and a negotiator for the "Troika" of official creditors during the sovereign-debt crisis. To see the authors' own book recommendations, click here. Tim Gwynn Jones is an economic and political-risk analyst at Medley Advisors, who also writes 242.news on Substack. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

Crisis Cycle: Challenges, Evolution, and Future of the Euro (Princeton UP, 2025) John Cochrane Luis Garicano Klaus Masuch PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS, 2025 Launched 26 years ago, the euro was never expected to have an easy life but it wasn't supposed to be this hard. A three-year solvency crisis, a string of bailouts, and a rescue by the European Central Bank (ECB) was followed by threats of deflation, negative interest rates, massive purchases of government debt, a global pandemic, a European land war, and an inflation surge. The euro area emerged from these tests but may not survive the next without reforms during this period of relative calm. In Crisis Cycle, economists John Cochrane, Luis Garicano, and Klaus Masuch call for critical reforms to rebuild the system's incentive structure and stop the ECB's unsought mission creep. "A beautiful ship was constructed," they write. "Out at sea, it ran into severe storms. Its captain and crew patched the holes as best they could. Now though it is time to return to the dry dock and fix the ship properly". John Cochrane is a professor of economics at Stanford University, best-known for his work on asset prices and the fiscal theory of the price level. Luis Garicano is an economics professor at the London School of Economics and former vice-chair of the Renew group in the European Parliament. Klaus Masuch recently retired from the ECB, where he was head of the monetary policy strategy department and a negotiator for the "Troika" of official creditors during the sovereign-debt crisis. To see the authors' own book recommendations, click here. Tim Gwynn Jones is an economic and political-risk analyst at Medley Advisors, who also writes 242.news on Substack.

Crisis Cycle: Challenges, Evolution, and Future of the Euro (Princeton UP, 2025) John Cochrane Luis Garicano Klaus Masuch PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS, 2025 Launched 26 years ago, the euro was never expected to have an easy life but it wasn't supposed to be this hard. A three-year solvency crisis, a string of bailouts, and a rescue by the European Central Bank (ECB) was followed by threats of deflation, negative interest rates, massive purchases of government debt, a global pandemic, a European land war, and an inflation surge. The euro area emerged from these tests but may not survive the next without reforms during this period of relative calm. In Crisis Cycle, economists John Cochrane, Luis Garicano, and Klaus Masuch call for critical reforms to rebuild the system's incentive structure and stop the ECB's unsought mission creep. "A beautiful ship was constructed," they write. "Out at sea, it ran into severe storms. Its captain and crew patched the holes as best they could. Now though it is time to return to the dry dock and fix the ship properly". John Cochrane is a professor of economics at Stanford University, best-known for his work on asset prices and the fiscal theory of the price level. Luis Garicano is an economics professor at the London School of Economics and former vice-chair of the Renew group in the European Parliament. Klaus Masuch recently retired from the ECB, where he was head of the monetary policy strategy department and a negotiator for the "Troika" of official creditors during the sovereign-debt crisis. To see the authors' own book recommendations, click here. Tim Gwynn Jones is an economic and political-risk analyst at Medley Advisors, who also writes 242.news on Substack. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Crisis Cycle: Challenges, Evolution, and Future of the Euro (Princeton UP, 2025) John Cochrane Luis Garicano Klaus Masuch PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS, 2025 Launched 26 years ago, the euro was never expected to have an easy life but it wasn't supposed to be this hard. A three-year solvency crisis, a string of bailouts, and a rescue by the European Central Bank (ECB) was followed by threats of deflation, negative interest rates, massive purchases of government debt, a global pandemic, a European land war, and an inflation surge. The euro area emerged from these tests but may not survive the next without reforms during this period of relative calm. In Crisis Cycle, economists John Cochrane, Luis Garicano, and Klaus Masuch call for critical reforms to rebuild the system's incentive structure and stop the ECB's unsought mission creep. "A beautiful ship was constructed," they write. "Out at sea, it ran into severe storms. Its captain and crew patched the holes as best they could. Now though it is time to return to the dry dock and fix the ship properly". John Cochrane is a professor of economics at Stanford University, best-known for his work on asset prices and the fiscal theory of the price level. Luis Garicano is an economics professor at the London School of Economics and former vice-chair of the Renew group in the European Parliament. Klaus Masuch recently retired from the ECB, where he was head of the monetary policy strategy department and a negotiator for the "Troika" of official creditors during the sovereign-debt crisis. To see the authors' own book recommendations, click here. Tim Gwynn Jones is an economic and political-risk analyst at Medley Advisors, who also writes 242.news on Substack. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Our guest on the podcast today is Ben Felix. Ben is chief investment officer for PWL Capital, a Canadian wealth management firm. He also co-hosts the Rational Reminder podcast and is the host of a YouTube channel that covers finance and investing-related topics. He joined PWL Capital in 2013 after completing a degree in mechanical engineering as well as an MBA. He is a CFA charter holder and a CFP professional. Ben, welcome to The Long View.BackgroundBioPWL CapitalRational Reminder podcastCanadian Market and Home-Country Bias“The Passive vs. Active Fund Monitor,” by Raymond Kerzerho, pwlcapital.com, Winter 2024.“Passive Beats Active Again in 2024,” by James Parkyn, capitaltopics.com, April 30, 2025.“Canadians Reducing Home Bias, Eh? Vanguard Research Finds That Investors Are Increasingly Going Global,” vanguard.ca, June 2024.Rational Reminder Podcast“Episode 169: Prof. John Cochrane: (Modern) Modern Portfolio Theory,” Rational Reminder Podcast, Sept. 30, 2021.“Understanding Crypto 14: Prof. John Cochrane: Money, (Fiscal) Inflation, and Political Freedom,” Rational Reminder Podcast, Sept. 2, 2022.“Episode 284: Prof. Scott Cederburg: Challenging the Status Quo on Lifecycle Asset Allocation,” Rational Reminder Podcast, Dec. 21, 2023.“Episode 350: Scott Cederburg: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice,” Rational Reminder Podcast, March 27, 2025.“Episode 316: Andrew Chen: ‘Is Everything I Was Taught About Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing Wrong?!'” Rational Reminder Podcast, Aug. 1, 2024.“Episode 102: Dr. Brian Portnoy: Underwriting a Meaningful Life,” Rational Reminder Podcast, June 11, 2020.“Episode 171: Prof. Campbell R. Harvey: The Past and Future of Finance,” Rational Reminder Podcast, Oct. 14, 2021.Other“The Misguided Beliefs of Financial Advisors,” by Juhani T. Linnainmaa, Brian Melzer, and Alessandro Previtero, Journal of Finance, March 22, 2021.Rational Reminder Community“OneDigital Expands Into Canada With Investment in PWL Capital, Expanding Wealth Management Services Across Borders,” OneDigital.com, Jan. 23, 2025.“Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice,” by Scott Cederburg, Aizhan Anarkulova, and Michael S. O'Doherty, papers.ssrn.com, March 5, 2025.The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, by John Cochrane

Is China hell-bent on a move against Taiwan, or does its saber-rattling not square with a military capability that's perhaps overestimated? Frank Dikötter, a Hoover senior fellow specializing in the history of modern China, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster to discuss his reading of China's desire and ability to project power, including its manufacturing capability and its suppression of individual liberties, plus the durability of Xi Jinping's rule. Recorded on May 23, 2025.

In the latest episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges, former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida and the Hoover Institution's John Cochrane discuss whether the Fed's independence is in jeopardy. This episode explores the latest Top of Mind report. This episode was recorded on April 30, May 6, and May 19, 2025. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

America and China take a 90-day time-out in their dispute over tariffs; President Trump's tour of the Middle East—the first overseas trip of his second term—raises unsettling questions about both his regional strategy and his family's business dealings; and hostilities between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan raise questions of behind-the-scenes great-power machinations amidst “Cold War 2.” Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster discuss what's at stake in these various parts of the globe. After that: the three fellows debate the severity of Chinese espionage in America's universities; and how AI's ability to shortcut the learning process will impact the future of higher education.    Recorded on May 14, 2025.

Rejected by voters last November, the Democratic Party is perhaps afforded new life given President Trump's decline in popularity and economic uncertainty ahead. What is the party's message?  Rep. Ro Khanna, a prominent progressive voice whose California district includes parts of Silicon Valley, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss tariffs and the use of executive power, “blue state” mismanagement, the feasibility of a “Marshall Plan” for economically downtrodden parts of America, plus the chances of Democrats parting ways with their “old guard.” After that: the three fellows weigh in on the Trump presidency at the 100-day mark, the future of Catholicism after the death of Pope Francis, tax exemption for universities, their go-to takeout food (pizza yes; haggis, no), plus two April landmarks—the 250th anniversary of the Battle of Lexington and the 50th anniversary of the fall of Saigon. Recorded on April 28, 2025.

What exactly is a trade deficit? And why are so many policymakers fixated on it? Lately, the trade deficit in the U.S. is taking the bulk of the blame for the economic situation we're in and it's one of the reasons the Trump administration is pushing for sweeping tariffs. But tariffs are likely not the answer, and a trade deficit might be better referred to as a capital surplus.  As a continuation of the tariffs discussion in the last episode, hosts and finance professors Jonathan Berk and Jules van Binsbergen are joined by John Cochrane, an economist at Stanford University and the Hoover Institution.   The conversation covers how trade deficits actually work, their implications on global and domestic economies, and how current trade policies may impact economic growth, inflation, and international relations.  Find All Else Equal on the web:  https://lauder.wharton.upenn.edu/allelse/All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions Podcast is a production of the UPenn Wharton Lauder Institute through University FM.

What are the economic and geopolitical effects of President Trump's imposition of tariffs on America's trading friends and foes? In an episode devoted solely to viewers' questions, Hoover senior fellows Sir Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster delve into the certain volatility (and uncertain logic) of Trump's tariff maneuvers, what the future holds for the European Union, institutional decline within the U.S., plus what if any parallels between historical periods past and present (do all roads lead to Rome or Richard Nixon?). Also discussed: the uniqueness of a hybrid American republic/empire, "sleeper" nations that might emerge as powerhouses by 2050, and recommended biographies for secondary-school readers. Finally, as this month marks GoodFellows' fifth anniversary, the three fellows reflect on what they've learned over the course of gathering online and in-person for 150-plus shows.       Recorded on April 10, 2025.  

2/2: #TARIFFS: FREE TRADE AND NVIDIA CHIPS. JOHN COCHRANE, HOOVER 1907 NYSE

Good evening: The show begins in Las Vegas, celebrating the global Disneyfication of the F1 sport and passion. More later. 1953 LAS VEGAS I'll add boldface to the four hour headings: CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR FIRST HOUR 9:00-9:15 #PACIFICWATCH: #VEGASREPORT: F1 DISNEYFICATION. @JCBLISS 9:15-9:30 ENERGY: ELECTRICITY DEMANDS, THREATEN SHORTFALL. 9:30-9:45 1/2: #TARIFFS: FREE TRADE AND NVIDIA CHIPS. JOHN COCHRANE, HOOVER 9:45-10:00 2/2: #TARIFFS: FREE TRADE AND NVIDIA CHIPS. JOHN COCHRANE, HOOVER SECOND HOUR 10:00-10:15 #CALIFORNIA: NEWSOM PODCASTS. BILL WHALEN, HOOVER. 10:15-10:30 #TARIFFS: NO USEFULNESS. VERONIQUE DE RUGY, MERCATUS 10:30-10:45 #NASA: ISAACMAN? BOB ZIMMERMAN, BEHINDTHEBLACK.COM 10:45-11:00 FIREFLY BLUE GHOST SLEEPS. BOB ZIMMERMAN, BEHINDTHEBLACK.COM THIRD HOUR 11:00-11:15 1/4: "The Shadow War: Iran's Quest for Supremacy" by Brandon J. Weichert (Author) 11:15-11:30 2/4: "The Shadow War: Iran's Quest for Supremacy" by Brandon J. Weichert (Author) 11:30-11:45 3/4: "The Shadow War: Iran's Quest for Supremacy" by Brandon J. Weichert (Author) 11:45-12:00 4/4: "The Shadow War: Iran's Quest for Supremacy" by Brandon J. Weichert (Author) FOURTH HOUR 12:00-12:15 #NUKES: POLAND, SOUTH KOREA. HENRY SOKOLSKI, NPEC. 12:15-12:30 #ITALY: EARTHQUAKE NAPLES; FLOR FIRENZE. LORENZO FIORI IN MILAN 12:30-12:45 SCOTUS: INDEPENDENT BOARDS. RICHARD EPSTEIN, CIVITAS INSTITUTE 12:45-1:00 AM DHS: DEPORTING GREEN CARD. RICHARD EPSTEIN, CIVITAS INSTITUTE

1/2: #TARIFFS: FREE TRADE AND NVIDIA CHIPS. JOHN COCHRANE, HOOVER 1907

Preview: Colleague John Cochrane of Hoover comments on the genius and success of free trade to create the AI visions of the century. More. 1958

US and Ukrainian officials will meet on March 12 to talk peace in Eastern Europe; a new US approach to China may or may not be in the works; and the Trump administration's gas-brake approach to imposing tariffs on trade partners has a Hoover economist baffled.  Arkansas senator Tom Cotton, chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee and author of Seven Things You Can't Say About China, joins Hoover senior fellows John Cochrane and H.R. McMaster to discuss the latest in Ukraine and his concerns over China's military, economic, and cultural hegemony. After that: The fellows dig deeper into the economic and strategic ramifications of Trump's tariff ploys, followed by a “lightning round,” including the merits of a US “crypto strategic reserve”; the renaming an army fort in Georgia (H.R. having known the late general whose name was removed); the creator of Hamilton refusing to play a “Trumpier” Kennedy Center; plus what the two would give up for Lent if so inclined.    Recorded on March 7, 2025.

A one-week window into the Trump administration's worldview—the president blaming Ukraine for Russia's invasion; his vice president taking to social media to accuse a Hoover scholar of “historical illiteracy”; the US then refusing to join other UN members in condemning Russian aggression—raises the question: Is the Trump brand of confusion and controversy mere happenstance or a calculated means to an end?  American Enterprise Institute scholar, author, and columnist Matthew Continetti joins Hoover senior fellows John Cochrane, H.R. McMaster, and Niall Ferguson (the subject of the vice president's lashing on X) to discuss Trump's unorthodox style, the showcasing of executive orders, and his chances of success at home and overseas. Also discussed: the significance of Trump's firing top military brass, a $5 million “gold card” for US residency, the Washington Post's editorial shift to “personal liberties and free markets,” Scotland's rugby disappointment at the hands (and legs) of England, plus the late Gene Hackman's best performances.     Recorded on February 27, 2025.

GOOD EVENING.  The show begins in Ukraine waiting on more details of the negotiations between Washington and Moscow... 1898 Brussels # CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR ## FIRST HOUR **9:00-9:30** #UKRAINE: No ceasefire before talks - Anatol Lieven, Quincy Institute **9:30-9:45** #SCALAREPORT: While Europe slept - Chris Riegel CEO, Scala.com @Stratacache **9:45-10:00** #QUANTUM REPORT: Breakthrough at Oxford - Brandon Weichert, Center for National Interest ## SECOND HOUR **10:00-10:15** #PRC: Billionaire Communists - Grant Newsham, "When China Attacks" **10:15-10:30** #CANADA: Off-put by POTUS remarks - Conrad Black, National Post **10:30-11:00** #POTUS: Tax cuts and the discontents - John Cochrane, Hoover ## THIRD HOUR **11:00-12:00** Extended discussion of "Paris in Ruins: Love, War, and the Birth of Impressionism" - Sebastian Smee, Author - Discussion of Impressionism's birth during the Franco-Prussian War - Focus on Manet, Morisot, and other key Impressionists ## FOURTH HOUR **12:00-12:15** #PRC: FENTANYL: Follow the money - Elaine Dezenski, FDD **12:15-12:30** #MRMARKET: DOGE isn't sufficient for the debt - Veronique De Rugy, Mercatus **12:30-12:45** #HOTEL MARS: Endgame SLS - Eric Berger, Ars Technica - David Livingston, SpaceShow.com **12:45-1:00** #HOTEL MARS: Endgame ROSCOSMOS - Eric Berger, Ars Technica - David Livingston, SpaceShow.com

1/2: #POTUS:  TAX CUTS AND THE DISCONTENTS. JOHN COCHRANE, HOOVER 1906 CHICAGO

2/2: #POTUS:  TAX CUTS AND THE DISCONTENTS. JOHN COCHRANE, HOOVER 1909 CHICAGO

Three weeks into the nascent Trump presidency, the question of “power” arises: how the leader of the free world uses unique words, deeds, and threats to advance America's interests globally, through a blend of grandiose promises (rebuilding Gaza), economic saber-rattling (tariffs on imported goods), and a “vibe shift” (woke bureaucracy under attack). Hoover Kleinheinz Senior Fellow Stephen Kotkin joins GoodFellows regulars Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss what such expressions of American power portend for a republic/empire showing signs of wear and tear—potentially crippling debt, a military perhaps unable to engage in multiple-theater conflicts, and more.    Recorded on February 10, 2025. 

"PREVIEW: Conversation with Professor John Cochrane about Trump's proposal to eliminate taxes on overtime pay. More tonight." 1895

"PREVIEW: Professor John Cochrane of Hoover Institution explains the SALT deduction and why it remains a contentious issue between Red and Blue states. More later this week." 1931 Bank of the United States failure

Tom Bevan, Carl Cannon and Emily Jashinsky discuss the ongoing battle over President Trump and Elon Musk's efforts to cut the federal government. They also talk about the bizarre story of Michigan State Democratic Representative Laurie Pohutsky and analyze rumors that Ron DeSantis' wife - Casey DeSantis may jump in the 2026 Florida Governor's race. Next, Tom chats with John Cochrane, who is Sr. Fellow at the Hoover Institution, about the list of 8 tax priorities released yesterday by the White House. And finally, Carl talks to Phil Wegmann about President Trump's latest press conference.

A week into Donald Trump's “second first term,” the GoodFellows drink from the proverbial fire hose trying to keep up with the news: a flurry of presidential executive orders; a freezing of US foreign aid; policy spats with multiple nations; at Davos, the world's globalists contending with MAGA; a Chinese advancement in artificial intelligence that prompted a market selloff and evokes memories of the Cold War's space race. Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster discuss the significance of the aid freeze; what Colombia's agreement to accept deportees after threats of a tariff war portends for Trump-brand foreign policy; how the times have changed at Davos's annual World Economic Forum; plus whether the emergence of China's DeepSeek app will trigger a modern-day “moonshot” within the AI sector. Next, the fellows discuss matters they deem neglected (are Russia and Iran's regimes on the ropes?), a DEI executive order, whether Trump's revoking of security clearances and dignitary protection was justified or vindictive, plus the three fellows' Super Bowl plans. Recorded on January 28, 2025.

PREVIEW - AI:-DEEPSEEK:  STANFORD Professor John Cochrane of Hoover remarks on how AI technologies are  quickly discounted In pricing and made widely available. MORE TONIGHT. 1955

#AI: End of AI supremacy. John Cochrane, Hoover 1927 JOHN CARTER ON MARS

#HOUSING: Government made housing prices. John Cochrane, Hoover 1936

GOOD EVENING: The show begins in the markets, excited by POTUS and waiting for Chairman Powell... 1870 Manhattan CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR FIRST HOUR 9-9:15 MARKETS: Fed pause. Liz Peek, The Hill, Fox News and Fox Business 9:15-9:30 MARKETS: POTUS momentum. Liz Peek, The Hill, Fox News and Fox Business 9:30-9:45 GAZA: POTUS recommends resettlement of Gazans 9:45-10:00 LEBANON: The LAF collaborates with Hezbollah. Jonathan Schanzer, FDD SECOND HOUR 10-10:15 Ukraine: Deploying the Army on the Mexican border. Colonel Jeff McCausland, USA (retired) @mccauslj @CBSNews @dickinsoncol 10:15-10:30 Ukraine: IRON DOME and POTUS. Colonel Jeff McCausland, USA (retired) @mccauslj @CBSNews @dickinsoncol 10:30-10:45 LondonCalling: POTUS gives license to the EU to discard Global Tax and Net-Zero. @JosephSternberg @WSJOpinion 10:45-11:00 LondonCalling: POTUS asks how much for Greenland? @JosephSternberg @WSJOpinion THIRD HOUR 11:00-11:15 AI: End of AI supremacy. John Cochrane, Hoover 11:15-11:30 HOUSING: Government made housing prices. John Cochrane, Hoover 11:30-11:45 BERLIN: CDU entertains a coalition with AFD. Judy Dempsey, Senior Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Berlin 11:45-12:00 BERLIN: Trump and Germany. Judy Dempsey, Senior Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Berlin FOURTH HOUR 12-12:15 JAPAN: Watching the PRC from Tokyo Bay. Gregory Copley, Defense & Foreign Affairs 12:15-12:30 AFRICA: ECOWAS crumbles; Rwanda attacks; Africa Alone. Gregory Copley, Defense & Foreign Affairs 12:30-12:45 Panama and Greenland: Defense of the Americas. Gregory Copley, Defense & Foreign Affairs 12:45-1:00 am KING CHARLES REPORT: The King to Auschwitz. Gregory Copley, Defense & Foreign Affairs

#Tariiffs: Tax Net not Gross. John Cochrane, Hoover Institution 1895 Broadway

#Social Security: 70 is the new 50 & What is to be done? John Cochrane, Hoover Institution 1887 Panic

GOOD EVENING: TONIGHT SPECIAL EDITION: HUGHES FIRE: North of Santa Clarita straddling the 5 Freeway. #PacificWatch:  Moving fast.  @JCBliss 1952 Kings Canyon National Forest fire. CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR FIRST HOUR 9:00-9:15 #Ukraine: Friedrich Merz to Kyiv Colonel Jeff McCausland, USA (retired) @mccauslj @CBSNews @dickinsoncol 9:15-9:30 #GAZA: Doubts of the Ceasefire Colonel Jeff McCausland, USA (retired) 9:30-9:45 #Tariffs: Tax Net not Gross John Cochrane, Hoover Institution 9:45-10:00 #Social Security: 70 is the new 50 & What is to be done? John Cochrane, Hoover Institution SECOND HOUR 10:00-10:15 #BERLIN: Macron and Scholz in Paris is old Europe Judy Dempsey, Senior Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Berlin 10:15-10:30 #BERLIN: Many in the CDU supports Ukraine Judy Dempsey, Carnegie Endowment 10:30-10:45 #POTUS: Biden and the Pardon Power @AndrewCMcCarthy @NRO @ThadMcCotter @theamgreatness 10:45-11:00 #POTUS: Releasing Peltier @AndrewCMcCarthy @NRO @ThadMcCotter @theamgreatness THIRD HOUR 11:00-11:30 #NewWorldReport: Mexico and Trump Administration demands Professor Evan Ellis, U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute @revanellis #NewWorldReportEllis 11:30-11:45 #NewWorldReport: Panama and China 11:45-12:00 #NewWorldReport: Marco Rubio to State FOURTH HOUR 12:00-12:15 #Russia: The price of oil is Russia's weakness Michael Bernstam, Hoover Institution 12:15-12:30 #France: Starmer's failure to lead Simon Constable, Occitanie 12:30-12:45 #FAA: Politely to SpaceX and Blue Origin Bob Zimmerman, BehindtheBlack.com 12:45-1:00 #MARS: Perseverance on the summit of Gale Crater

"PREVIEW: Colleague John Cochrane of Stanford explains how extending the working age will strengthen the country. More tonight." 1900 WILLIAM JENNINGS BRYAN

Send us a textWelcome back! Happy New Year! Glad to be back! Come one, come all! Eric Leeper is the Paul Goodloe McIntire Professor in Economics at the University of Virginia. He also is a visiting scholar at the Mercatus Center at GMU. Today, we talk about inflation. He explains to us how inflation theory has evolved and how we forgot about the relationship between the fiscal and monetary sides of the economy.Want to explore more?John Cochrane on Monetary versus Fiscal Policy, A Great Antidote podcast.Leonidas Zelmanovitz, The Boundaries of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, at Econlib.Allen Meltzer on Inflation, an EconTalk podcast.Thomas Hoening on Inflation and the Federal Reserve, a Great Antidote podcast.Maryann Keating, Adam Smith and the Public Debt, at AdamSmithWorks.Never miss another AdamSmithWorks update.Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

2/2:  #INFLATION? John Cochrane Hoover.I Why 2020-2024 1882 NYSE

1/2:  #INFLATION? John Cochrane Hoover.I Why 2020-2024? 1887 Chicago

In today's episode, we unpack how rigorous research translates into actionable strategies for wealth management. Ben and Mark are joined by Peter Mladina, Executive Director of Portfolio Research at Northern Trust Wealth Management and professor at UCLA. With an impressive body of published work and practical innovations like his goals-based asset allocation software, Peter offers a unique perspective on bridging the gap between theory and practice. The conversation delves into foundational topics like asset allocation and factor models, with a special focus on practical applications of research in wealth management. Peter shares insights from his research, including intriguing findings on factor investing and joint tests of market efficiency. From real estate investment trusts to the nuances of the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM), the discussion covers how these concepts can directly inform financial planning and portfolio construction. Tune in to explore the intersection of academic insight and everyday financial decision-making! Key Points From This Episode:   (0:00:17) Introducing Peter Mladina and his wealth management research. (0:04:00) Theoretical and practical shortcomings of Markowitz's Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). (0:05:24) How the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) resolves MPT's shortcomings, and how the Intertemporal CAPM (ICAPM) resolves the CAPM and MPT's shortcomings. (0:10:16) Key distinctions between an optimal ICAPM portfolio and an optimal CAPM portfolio. (0:15:33) Allocating between liability hedge assets and risky assets, and when it's sensible for individual investors to try to fully hedge consumption liabilities. (0:20:14) The role of Monte Carlo simulation and human capital in building ICAPM portfolios. (0:24:15) Steps for practitioners starting with ICAPM and how to advise their clients. (0:37:18) Insights from Peter's papers on factor models: why common risk factors should explain returns across most asset classes. (0:40:11) The value of looking at asset classes through a factor lens. (0:41:54) Main factors Peter uses in his research and observations on the zoo of factors. (0:46:23) Takeaways from Peter's paper on real estate (and why he doesn't like it that much). (0:56:45) Unpacking hedge fund returns and factor models and Yale's endowment performance. (01:02:44) Peter's research on traded portfolios and jointly testing factor models and manager performance. (01:07:14) How Peter defines success, both professionally and personally.   Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Peter Mladina on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-mladina-177194125/ Peter Mladina on SSRN — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=890472 Northern Trust — https://www.northerntrust.com/ Episode 169: John Cochrane — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/169   Papers From Today's Episode:  ‘Real Estate Betas and the Implications for Asset Allocation' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3134732 ‘An ICAPM Framework for Asset Allocation' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4319731 ‘An ICAPM for Goals-Based Investing' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4943241 'Portfolios for Long-Term Investors' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3790823 ‘Yale's Endowment Returns: Manager Skill or Risk Exposure?' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2959074

GOOD EVENING: The show begins in Ukraine with General Frost... CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR 1919 Lemberg FIRST HOUR 9-915 #Ukraine:  General Frost dominates.  Colonel Jeff McCausland , USA (retired) @mccauslj @CBSNews @dickinsoncol 915-930 #SYRIA: Balkanized and fog of war. :  Colonel Jeff McCausland , USA (retired) @mccauslj @CBSNews @dickinsoncol 930-945 #REGULATION: Adds 30% to any price. John Cochrane, Hoover Institution 945-1000 #FRSNCE: Best moments for an Englishman living in the South of France. simon Constable, Occitanie SECOND HOUR 10-1015 #StateThinking: Anticipating POTUS-ELECT Syria to Russia..  @MaryKissel Former Senior Adviser to the Secretary of State. Executive VP Stephens Inc. 1015-1030 #StateThinking: Trump has a record of pushing back on the Kremlin.Mary Kissel Former Senior Adviser to the Secretary of State. Executive VP Stephens Inc 1030-1045 SPACEX: Starbase, Texas. Bob Zimmerman BehindtheBlack.com 1045-1100 #MARS: Rovers relentless. Bob Zimmerman BehindtheBlack.com THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 1/4: Ingenious: A Biography of Benjamin Franklin, Scientist Hardcover – November 12, 2024 by  Richard Munson  (Author) https://www.amazon.com/Ingenious-Biography-Benjamin-Franklin-Scientist/dp/0393882233 Benjamin Franklin was one of the preeminent scientists of his time. Driven by curiosity, he conducted cutting-edge research on electricity, heat, ocean currents, weather patterns, chemical bonds, and plants. But today, Franklin is remembered more for his political prowess and diplomatic achievements than his scientific creativity. In this incisive and rich account of Benjamin Franklin's life and career, Richard Munson recovers this vital part of Franklin's story, reveals his modern relevance, and offers a compelling portrait of a shrewd experimenter, clever innovator, and visionary physicist whose fame opened doors to negotiate French support and funding for American independence. Munson's riveting narrative explores how science underpins Franklin's entire story―from tradesman to inventor to nation-founder―and argues that Franklin's political life cannot be understood without giving proper credit to his scientific accomplishments.8 pages of illustrations 1115-1130 2/4: Ingenious: A Biography of Benjamin Franklin, Scientist Hardcover – November 12, 2024 by  Richard Munson  (Author) 1130-1145 3/4: Ingenious: A Biography of Benjamin Franklin, Scientist Hardcover – November 12, 2024 by  Richard Munson  (Author) 1145-1200 4/4: Ingenious: A Biography of Benjamin Franklin, Scientist Hardcover – November 12, 2024 by  Richard Munson  (Author) FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 PRC: Deflation: Anne Stevenson-Yang, author of Wild Ride: China's Short-Lived Experiment in Capitalism, on @GordonGChang, Gatestone, Newsweek, The Hill https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/12/china-stresses-plans-to-boost-growth-at-top-agenda-setting-meeting.html 1215-1230 KOREA: Tangled by CONSTITUTIONAL law. David Maxwell, vice president of the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy, on the latest in South Korea, including this: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-global-ripple-effects-of-south-koreas-political-turmoil/ 1230-1245 CANADA: TRUDEAU  DISDAINED: What about PRC interference? Charles Burton, senior fellow at Sinopsis, on this: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y49ym6em3o   1245-100 am DRONES; China, Iran, suspects.  Blaine Holt, retired Air Force general who served as deputy military representative to NATO, on the latest on the drones.

#REGULATION: Adds 30% to any price. John Cochrane, Hoover Institution 1907 NYSE

An eventful election year concludes with the curtain soon to rise on a second Trump presidency and the possibility of dramatic changes to how Washington conducts itself. Kimberley Strassel, the Wall Street Journal's “Potomac Watch” columnist, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster for a temperature check on Trump's comeback: the odds of his ending lawfare and weeding out recalcitrant bureaucracy while also extending his 2017 tax cuts; plus whether Elon Musk's DOGE initiative will indeed make the federal government more efficient. Later, the fellows offer their choices of 2024's winners and losers, and what they got right and wrong this past year, as well as something big to expect in 2025. Finally, Sir Niall reflects on the emotional pull of knighthood, having recently been on the kneeling side of his investiture ceremony at Windsor Castle.

PREVIEW: DEREGULATION: Hoover Institution Scholar John Cochrane analyzes regulation's 30% cost premium on imports, services, and housing—particularly grotesquely in California. More later 1928-1970 Lovell Beach House, Newport Beach, California

1/2 CENTRAL BANKERS: Suspect Too Independent. John Cochrane, Hoover Institution. 1949 Chicago

2/2 CENTRAL BANKERS: Suspect Too Independent. John Cochrane, Hoover Institution. 1882 NYSE

In a special “mailbag” episode, Hoover senior fellows Sir Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster answer audience questions ranging from current geopolitics quandaries and viable economic models to career and parenting advice, plus their personal choices of dream guests. Among the topics: a neglected African continent; Russia's military and economic sustainability and related policy options that the incoming Trump administration will face; parallels between Taiwan and pre–World War I Europe; rating Javier Milei's performance in Argentina; job options for aspiring PhD candidates; plus the panel's recommendations for foundational books to instill honor and patriotism in children (spoiler alert: Niall talking Tolkien).  Submit your questions for our next mailbag episode at Hoover.org/AskGoodFellows and see if your question gets selected and answered!

#CENTRAL PLANNING: What goes wrong and why? John Cochrane, Hoover Institution. https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/the-popularity-of-planning 1942 factory workers USSR

CENTRAL BANKING:Climate change alarm bells and the price of money. John Cochrane, Hoover Institution. https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/central-bankers-can-be-too-independent 1914 NYC German Savings Bank

PREVIEW: CENTRAL PLANNING - Hoover Fellow John Cochrane comments on the central planners of old and the government-directed planning of today, such as the CHIPS Act. More later. 1921

2/2: #INFLATION: Causes and remedies. John Cochrane, Hoover Institution 1941

1/2: #INFLATION: Causes and remedies. John Cochrane, Hoover Institution 1829 Five Points

PREVIEW: INFLATION: Hoover Institution economist John Cochrane analyzes persistent inflation drivers threatening economic stability and examines proven mitigation strategies. More tonight. 1908 Braddock Hills PA