Podcast appearances and mentions of John H Cochrane

The Walter E. Hoadley Annual Economic Forecast, presented by Bank of America. Major changes are coming to tax, tariff, and regulatory policy in the wake of the November 2024 election. What impact will the new administration and Congress have on the economy in 2025? Will inflation be a big factor? How will our international trade fare? And will unemployment and consumer spending continue on their current paths? Our expert panel—including John H. Cochrane, the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution; Mary Daly, the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco; Susan Hyde, Robson Professor in the Travers Department of Political Science and co-director of the Institute of International Studies at UC Berkeley; Baie Netzer, senior investment strategist for Bank of America Private Bank; Adam Lashinsky, editor-at-large for The San Francisco Standard and contributing columnist for The Washington Post (moderator)—will give you insight to help you better understand the trends, policies, dangers and opportunities that lie ahead for your business and your wallet in 2025. Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California is a nonprofit public forum; we welcome donations made during registration to support the production of our programming. This event is underwritten by Bank of America. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Friday, December 6, 2024  Hoover Institution | Stanford University The Hoover Institution held a conversation with President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Mary C. Daly and Hoover Institution Senior Fellow, John H. Cochrane on Emerging Technology and the Economy on Friday, December 6th at 10:00 a.m. in the Shultz Auditorium, George P. Shultz Building.​ About the Speakers Mary C. Daly is President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, where she contributes to shaping U.S. monetary policy as part of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). A labor and public policy economist, Daly is devoted to research and to ensuring that it is translated into practices that improve the lives of everyone. In addition to her work with the Federal Reserve, Daly has served as a visiting professor at Cornell University and UC Davis, and has been an advisor to the Congressional Budget Office, the Library of Congress, and the Social Security Administration. Daly is known for her ability to communicate and is a frequent speaker in the U.S. and internationally. She also hosts an award-winning podcast, Zip Code Economies. Daly holds a bachelor's degree from the University of Missouri-Kansas City, a master's degree from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, a Ph.D. in economics from Syracuse University, and completed a post-doctoral fellowship at Northwestern University. John H. Cochrane is the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He is also a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and an adjunct scholar of the CATO Institute. Before joining Hoover, Cochrane was a Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business, and earlier at its Economics Department. He was a junior staff economist on the Council of Economic Advisers (1982–83). His most recent book is The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level. Cochrane frequently contributes editorial opinion essays to the Wall Street Journal. He maintains the Grumpy Economist blog. Cochrane earned a bachelor's degree in physics at MIT and his PhD in economics at the University of California at Berkeley. 

The Federalist Papers, a series of essays written in the late 18th century, advocated for the ratification of the U.S. Constitution and promoted the idea of a nation designed by intent rather than by accident.  On Tuesday, September 24th, 2024 at 12:00 PM PT, Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence celebrated the launch of the Digitalist Papers, which seek to inspire a new era of governance, informed by the transformative power of technology to address the significant challenges and opportunities posed by AI and other digital technologies.  This event was held at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, featuring presentations and dynamic discussions with the authors—experts in economics, law, technology, management, and political science—who have contributed essays to this newly edited volume. These essays explore how the intersection of technology with each of these fields might lead to better governance. By assembling these diverse voices and releasing these essays ahead of the November election, we aimed to shift the conversation toward designing a more transparent and accountable system of governance. Our goal is to impact the development and integration of digital technologies and transform social structures for the digital age. Join us as we embark on this pivotal journey to redefine the future of governance. This was an in-person event open to the public. Authors include: John H. Cochrane (Stanford), “AI, Society, and Democracy: Just Relax” Sarah Friar (OpenAI) and Laura Bisesto (OpenAI), “The Potential for AI to Restore Local Community Connectedness, the Bedrock of a Healthy Democracy” Mona Hamdy (Anomaly and Harvard University), Johnnie Moore (JDA Worldwide and The Congress of Christian Leaders), and E. Glen Weyl (Plural Technology Collaboratory), “Techno-ideologies of the Twenty-first Century” Reid Hoffman (Greylock) and Greg Beato, “Informational GPS” Lawrence Lessig (Harvard), “Protected Democracy” James Manyika (Google and Alphabet), “Getting AI Right: A 2050 Thought Experiment” Jennifer Pahlka (Niskanen Center and the Federation of American Scientists), “AI Meets the Cascade of Rigidity” Nathaniel Persily (Stanford), “Misunderstanding AI's Democracy Problem” Eric Schmidt (Former CEO and Chairman of Google), “Democracy 2.0” Divya Siddarth (Collective Intelligence Project), Saffron Huang (Collective Intelligence Project), Audrey Tang (Collective Intelligence Project), “A Vision of Democratic AI” Lily L. Tsai (MIT) and Alex Pentland (Stanford), “Rediscovering the Pleasures of Pluralism: The Potential of Digitally Mediated Civic Engagement” Eugene Volokh (Stanford and UCLA), “Generative AI and Political Power”

Is a regional war across the Middle East about to erupt? And what to make of a Venezuelan regime that doesn't honor election results? Matthew Kroenig, Vice President and Senior Director of the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and coauthor of the book We Win They Lose: Republican Foreign Policy and the New Cold War, joins Hoover senior fellows John Cochrane and H.R. McMaster to discuss lessons from deterrence (or a lack thereof) past, present, and future. Next, John explains how a market meltdown underscores a fragile world economy, followed by a discussion of two historical milestones: 50 years since Richard Nixon's resignation (with public trust in government today significantly lower than in Watergate's heyday); and Herbert Hoover's 150th birthday (as to his humanitarian pursuits, where would our fellows be without Hoover's namesake institution?).

An already surreal political year becomes all the more quizzical as former president Donald Trump literally dodges an assassin's bullet soon before making a surprise pick of Ohio senator J. D. Vance as his running mate; followed by President Biden unexpectedly ending his reelection bid and Vice President Kamala Harris swiftly becoming the Democratic Party's presumptive presidential nominee. Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster do their best to make sense of these summertime blockbusters, including whether Harris alters her party's course (triangulate or double down on the past four years?); the pros and cons of Trump-brand nationalism and that philosophy's hold over a restyled Republican Party; Vance's qualifications for national office; plus cautionary tales from Biden's lone presidential term and the chances of more surprises to come before Election Day in America.  

The Dispatch's Jonah Goldberg joins Good Fellows to discuss his differences with Niall Ferguson's Soviet America essay, the Biden/Trump gerontocracy, and the European elections. Also, can someone help Niall choose a dog?

How do a historian, an economist, and a geostrategist make the best use of their summers? In an abbreviated GoodFellows, Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster reveal a few of their summertime preferences: favorite leisurely pursuits (land, air, and sea), their go-to foods and drinks, family gatherings (all three are grandparents), recommended books and movies, plus what research and writing lies ahead (plenty of writing and travel). Among the revelations: summer aficionados they are, streaming “vidiots” they're not; plus, on a conflicting Fourth of July, a dual citizen's “special relationship” with his native UK and adopted America.

A new “cold war” presents a familiar challenge for America: how to curb a rival great power's ambitions. Matt Pottinger, a Hoover Institution visiting fellow and editor of the forthcoming book The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss how best to discourage China from moving on its island neighbor. After that: the fellows debate the wisdom of the UK's fast-tracked national election; plus what, if anything, has surprised them during this year's round of episodes (spoiler alert: plenty of chickens—bad policies, poorly run universities—came home to roost).

Historians differ over the need to explore “counterfactuals”—the study of scenarios that never happened—and what they can tell us about historical causation. Stephen Kotkin, the Hoover Institution's Kleinheinz Senior Fellow and noted historian of Russia, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss alternative historical outcomes: Stalin not surviving a two-front invasion in World War II and Churchill dying well beforehand; the American Revolution failing; the Beatles never spearheading pop music's British Invasion; a Trump victory in 2020 and its potential effect on the current state of affairs in Ukraine and the Middle East; plus a world in which COVID never happened (spoiler alert: it might have impacted John and Niall's book sales).

Did Israel's failure to anticipate Hamas's surprise attack in October 2023 stem from an overreliance on technical rather than human intelligence gathering? And is TikTok really a national security threat to America? Amy Zegart, the Hoover Institution's Morris Arnold and Nona Jean Cox Senior Fellow and author of Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss Israel's intel failure, whether TikTok is the menace it's portrayed to be, plus how spy films (wrongly) shape the public's view on espionage. Next the fellows discuss the driving forces behind campus unrest across the US and how long the movement will last, followed by a series of other discussions: rebutting anti-American sentiment; the best fast-food burger; the popularity of “Austrian school” economics in South America; and the likely winner were Niall, John, and H.R. to slug it out in a UFC octagon (spoiler alert: Niall and John don't like their chances). 

Nearly 40 years since the nation last saw comprehensive reform on the matter, the consensus is that America's immigration system is sorely in need of updating to 21st-century realities. Reihan Salam, Manhattan Institute president and author of the book Melting Pot or Civil War?, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss a smarter approach to welcoming newcomers to America. After that: the fellows discuss the ramifications of Iran's not-so-surprise missile assault on Israel and what the coming months portend for those warring nations. Finally, John and H.R. (and a few surprise guests) welcome Niall to his “swinging 60s”—Hoover's “international man of history” officially a sexagenarian on the same day this show was recorded. 

As the six-month anniversary of Hamas's attack on Israel approaches, what to expect next in that struggle—and is the American president and Israeli prime minister's working relationship beyond repair? New York Times columnist Bret Stephens joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss the war's possible expansion into southern Lebanon and Stephens's vision of a rebuilt Gaza as a Mediterranean version of Dubai. After that, a celebration of four years since GoodFellows' “shelter-in place” debut, including a little boasting (they saw inflation coming), a little contrition (they didn't see Trump rebounding), and some big takeaways on geopolitics, economics, and the pandemic's legacy.

Following Super Tuesday's results, with the US presidential election still the better part of eight months away, a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is all but certain. Victor Davis Hanson, the Hoover Institution's Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow and author of the soon-to-be-released book The End of Everything: How Wars Descend into Annihilation, joins Hoover senior fellows John Cochrane and H.R. McMaster to discuss where Biden and Trump stand on “shrinkflation” and the US economy, America's involvement in overseas conflicts, plus the likelihood of Democrats replacing a struggling Biden at their August national convention and Trump running a disciplined campaign despite his legal travails.

Why did Vladimir Putin call for an “inter-Palestinian meeting” in Moscow? And has Israel drawn a red line regarding a hostage release and an assault on the Gazan city of Rafah? Dan Senor, host of the Call Me Back podcast and author of two books on Israel, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson (live from Jerusalem) and John Cochrane to discuss the moving parts and global ramifications of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Following that: remembering the late Alexei Navalny and what the future holds for Russian political opposition amid Putin-brand fascism; America's “trust” credit rating as it reneges on promises to friends and allies; plus George Washington's recent demotion to third-greatest of all US presidents.

While the American reprisal against Iranian proxies across the Middle East is impressive in its harnessing of firepower, technology, and intelligence, does it advance the goals of deterrence and de-escalation? Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster discuss the pros and cons of the current US strategy and their concerns over the lack of an apparent end game. Following that: a conversation about Donald Trump's  appeal to voters and his detractors' inability to understand his populist resonance (the subject of a recent John Cochrane Wall Street Journal op-ed); how best to revitalize African nations; plus Niall's annual abhorrence of Super Bowl Sunday (spoiler alert: he's not a “Swiftie”).

This installment of GoodFellows is devoted to audience questions—viewers and listeners putting Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster through their intellectual paces. Among the topics broached: a possible re-embrace of Western heritage; the same pre–World War I mentality that dismissed the likelihood of a global conflict potentially enabling a third world war; India and Pakistan's economic and geostrategic outlooks; Donald Trump's second-term objectives, should he be reelected; and Argentinian president Javier Milei's pro-market “shock therapy” and his World Economic Forum “special address” dressing down Davos attendees. Viewers also asked: Why not a fellows' blues band? Might Niall consider adding a little profanity to his profundity?

The new year begins with a continuation of three topics that figured prominently in 2023: escalating hostilities in the Middle East; a possible return to more traditional higher education after shake-ups at several elite American universities; plus the uncertainty of certain economic assumptions (in 2023, a much-prophesied recession that never materialized). Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, H.R. McMaster, and John Cochrane also discuss the odds of Cold War 2 morphing into World War III; whether economic conditions will overshadow fearmongering in a grim Trump-Biden referendum (in Niall's words: the choice of “empire or republic”); the best use of this leap year's spare day; plus why King Charles III would choose to break with tradition by spending a “dry” January in a very wet Scotland.

The C. Boyden Gray Center for the Study of the Administrative State, the Mercatus Center, and the Journal of Law, Economics & Policy recently hosted a full-day symposium on the future of financial regulation. This episode of Gray Matters is a panel discussion featuring the Hoover Institution's John H. Cochrane and professors Kathryn Judge, Jonathan R. Macey, and Todd J. Zywicki, moderated by Scalia Law professor Paolo Saguato. They discuss banking regulation, consumer finance, and what might be coming next in the world of financial regulation.Notes:Videos from the conference

Failing to unequivocally denounce students' calls for Jewish genocide has cost one university president her job and raises questions as to whether the current levels of anti-Semitic vitriol and political activism inside America's elite schools suggests parallels to Nazi Germany. Bari Weiss, founder of the Free Press and host of the Honestly podcast, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, H.R. McMaster, and John Cochrane to discuss when and why America's universities went astray and how to separate scholarship from political agendas.

As the US prepares for a presidential vote (Iowans caucusing in fewer than 50 days) and a temporary truce halts the Israel-Hamas conflict, long-term uncertainty seems the order of the day. Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal political columnist and the “architect” behind George W. Bush's presidential runs, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson. H.R. McMaster, and John Cochrane to discuss the odds of a Biden-Trump rematch. Next the three fellows analyze the latest in the Middle East, including the peril of a broader regional conflict and the potential for eradicating Hamas. Finally, a “lightning round“ explores Vladimir Putin's peace overtures, Sam Altman's return to OpenAI, an ascendant Right on two continents, plus the legacy of the soon-to-be-touring Rolling Stones (Niall having no sympathy for any devil who doesn't recognize the Stones as the greatest rock band).

Ian Rowe, an American Enterprise Institute senior fellow and cofounder of the Bronx-based Vertex Partnership Academies, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss the future of public education and charter schools' role in the quest for better outcomes. What lessons does a virtues-based public charter high school in New York City offer to the ideal of education as a path to life success? Ian Rowe, an American Enterprise Institute senior fellow and cofounder of the Bronx-based Vertex Partnership Academies, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss the future of public education and charter schools' role in the quest for better outcomes. After that: Niall and John weigh in on the potential for economic turmoil in a time of global instability; a hypothetical outsider as House Speaker; plus their like and dislike of the Olympic Games.

As Israel and Ukraine struggle for survival, a newer “axis of ill will”—formed by Russia, China and Iran—sows discord around the globe. Stephen Kotkin, the Hoover Institution's Kleinheinz Senior Fellow and a vaunted historian, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to assess options abroad and parallels to the past (are we reliving the 1930s, the 1970s, or both?). The trio then dons their speechwriters' hats to suggest how President Biden can capture the moral high ground. The trio then discusses how President Biden can capture the moral high ground when he makes public statements about the crisis and America's response to it.

Recorded live at the Hoover Institution's fall retreat: Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, H.R. McMaster, and John Cochrane discuss unfolding events in the Middle East—Israel's response, failures in intelligence gathering, plus America's strategic choices vis-à-vis a complicit Iran. The trio then reflects on what an anti-Israeli backlash on the campuses of America's elite universities—students and faculty denouncing the initial victims as aggressors, university leaders offering only lackluster “word salads”—says about the current state of higher education in the United States. 

The US Supreme Court seems headed for a showdown with social media platforms over content and censorship; the United Nations' 78th General Assembly underscores that body's inability to curb totalitarian aggression. Eugene Volokh, a soon-to-be Hoover Institution senior fellow and a First Amendment law professor at UCLA, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss free speech in the Information Age and what comes next for universities following the court's rebuke of race-factored admissions. This is followed by Niall and John discussing whether 20th-century international agencies remain true to their charters. On a lighter note, John and Niall also weigh in on government-run groceries, dress codes, and tipping servers (waiters yes, baristas no).

In the wake of the second largest bank failure in American history, Charles eschews his monologue in order to chat to someone who knows what he's talking about: the economist, John H. Cochrane, who is the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, a co-host of the show Goodfellows, and the author of the Grumpy Economist blog, and, most recently, of the book, The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level.After that, Charles talks to Henry Oliver, of The Common Reader, about whether literature students at Harvard are capable of reading, whether it's a problem that people want to shave the edges off Shakespeare, and how long copyright terms should be for authors.The dial-up tone in the introduction was recorded by lintphishx and is used under a CC 3.0 License. 

Presenters: Sanjai Bhagat, professor of finance at the University of Colorado–Boulder; and John H. Cochrane, Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution. Chair: John Taylor, George P. Shultz Senior Fellow in Economics, Hoover Institution. Sanjai Bhagat explained that ESG investing principles and new standards of corporate social responsibility are not based on the fiduciary duty to maximize shareholder value. They are primarily centered, he said, on maintaining the well-being of societal stakeholders, including customers, employers, suppliers, and communities, as well as particular objectives such as environmental justice. John Cochrane asserted that the Security and Exchange Commission's plan to enforce ESG investment practices isn't based on “saving the planet” but on bending corporations to serve a particular political agenda. Echoing Bhagat, Cochrane said the ESG mandates would not maximize shareholder value. It would instead deny capital to companies, lower their asset prices, and curb returns to investors. ESG mandates would also pervert markets, destroy competition, and encourage some companies to rent-seek from the government. ____________________________ Click the following link for more information https://www.hoover.org/news/hoover-institution-hosts-conference-evaluating-market-driven-versus-regulatory-approaches

In episode #27 of the Let People Prosper Show, I interview Dr. John H. Cochrane of the Hoover Institution about:    His latest book The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (read chapters of the book and other info here)   Factors influencing inflation in the past and today based on explanations from monetarism and his fiscal theory; and     Current events based on these ideas, what the future holds for the economy in 2023, and more.  More on Dr. Cochrane: https://www.johnhcochrane.com/   For thoughtful economic commentary and show notes, check out my newsletter: https://vanceginn.substack.com/ Please rate with 5 stars and subscribe to the Let People Prosper Show if you enjoyed this episode. And be sure to check out the other episodes.

As promised, the GoodFellows (that's John H. Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, and H. R. McMaster) take a break from their summer hiatus to discuss what has transpired in the world since their last appearance on YouTube. Topics covered include the war in Ukraine, the economy and inflation, and the hot topic of the moment: the climate and Europe's search for reliable energy. Also, the GoodFellows make some summer reading suggestions! Recorded July 12, 2022

SUMMARY: April's Case-Shiller report showed a slight drop in home price growth for the month which hasn't happened since November 2021 and could be a sign the housing market is now officially slowing, consumer confidence falls to the lowest level in 4-months thanks to inflation, and John H. Cochrane says the Federal Reserve can't fix inflation by itself...Sources:Home Price Growth Slows in AprilConsumer Confidence Falls to a 4-Month LowCOCHRANE: The Federal Reserve Can't Cure Inflation by Itself (WSJ)

Recorded October 19, 2021   interview with John H. Cochrane, H. R. McMaster, Bill Whalen, Caroline M. Hoxby   The late Colin Powell's story is one of an immigrant's son who rose to prominence based on a quality public-school education and enrollment in college ROTC. Hoover senior fellows H. R. McMaster, John Cochrane, and guest Caroline Hoxby discuss whether today's generation stands to benefit the same as Powell's, what role teachers play, how elite universities can better connect to lower-income students, plus COVID's effect on the workplace in terms of remote work and concentrated workforces.

As many of you already know, we have been working hard to figure out the best way to model expected stock returns for financial planning and asset allocation. It has a lot of history in financial literature, which is to be expected, given the importance of the figure. In today’s episode, we’re looking all the way back to 1985, when Rajnish Mehra and Edward C.Prescott called the equity premium a puzzle, through to the present day, when the equity risk premium has only gotten larger. We dive into some of the theories for resolving the equity premium puzzle, explain why US stock market data isn’t the best way to estimate future premiums, thanks to its survivorship bias, and some of the general issues with interpreting past returns. Benjamin also gets into predictability, which is not as obvious as it seems, and highlights some of the information from the simulation he performed, and the big breakthroughs from running the numbers. All this and more in today’s episode on expected stock returns, so make sure to tune in today!   Key Points From This Episode: Kicking off with the fallout from the collapse of Archegos Capital, the death of Bernie Madoff, and the story of the $100 million New Jersey deli. [0:06:35] Reflecting on the recent article, ‘Could Index Funds be ‘Worse Than Marxism’?’. [0:11:05] On to today’s topic: do expected stock returns wear a cape? [0:13:05] Theories for resolving the equity premium puzzle; either the model is wrong or the historical premium was higher than it will be in the future. [0:14:14] Hear John H. Cochrane’s theory from his 1997 paper, ‘Where is the Market Going?’ [0:14:42] Why we can’t use historic US stock market data to approximate future premiums. [0:14:57] Other issues with looking to past returns, like no proof that the equity premium was stationary. [0:15:23] Why time periods characterized by decreasing risk should effectively see decreased discount rates too. [0:16:04] Dimson, Marsh, and Staunton (DMS) on expected stock returns using out of sample data. [0:16:40] Hear some of the equity risk premium stats from their world index versus the US. [0:19:38] How annual returns have been relatively unaffected by global financial crises. [0:21:15] From looking back, to what to expect going forward: the issues with interpreting past returns. [0:22:10] Why, according to DMS, expected returns equal the growth rate in dividends plus the dividend yield. [0:25:26] Hear the actual figures, which reflect the minor contribution of multiple expansion. [0:26:49] What a company is worth if it doesn’t distribute capital to shareholders. [0:29:03] Find out why the expected geometric equity risk premium works out to 3.5 percent. [0:30:13] While the DMS approach is reasonable, it still doesn’t account for whether expected returns are constant through time or if they vary. [0:32:21] Predictable stock returns dictate that changing risk aversion over time measurably affects risk premiums after good and bad events. [0:34:45] Diving into the vast literature on return predictability, including a paper by Goyal and Welch. [0:35:12] Why predictability is not as obvious as it seems, thanks to our sample data. [0:36:15] What we can learn from ‘Long Horizon Predictability’ by Boudoukh, Israel, and Richardson. [0:39:30] R-squared and market timing decisions; why it would need to be higher than it was historically. [0:40:32] Hear about the world index analysis Benjamin performed and what it proves about risk premiums over 30 and 60 year periods. [0:42:31] Bootstrap simulations and why they are criticized; because they ignore mean relationship, you get a much wider distribution of outcomes. [0:44:50] Big breakthroughs from running through these numbers, like noting the upward bias and tighter distribution in long-run historical data. [0:50:34] How to apply this on your own, using the 3.5 percent risk premium in the long run. [0:52:23] Some of the other interesting things we noted during these simulations. [0:53:10] We pull two cards: choosing between a holiday and a pet, and borrowing money with interest. [0:53:56] Bad advice of the week: a free lunch-esque article on investing in private credit. [0:55:53]

With a ballooning U.S. federal budget deficit, a growing national debt, and double digit increases in the money supply, is it time to bet against the dollar?Topics covered include:What is driving the double digit increases in U.S. home pricesWhy hasn't inflation spiked in line with rising home pricesWhat is the velocity of money and why is it fallingWhat are three schools of thought regarding what causes inflationWhat is the average interest rate and maturity schedule of the U.S. national debtHow the Bank of Amsterdam is an example of how central banks can go insolvent and shut downWhy the dollar has an exorbitant privilegeThanks to Policygenius and Hello Fresh for sponsoring the episode. Use code david12off for 12 free meals with free shipping from Hello Fresh.For more information on this episode click here.Show NotesWhere Did Americans Move in 2020? by Janelle Cammenga—Tax FoundationVelocity of M2 Money Stock (M2V) Chart—Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisFederal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product (FYFSGDA188S) Chart—Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisHow the CPI measures price change of Owners’ equivalent rent of primary residence (OER) and Rent of primary residence (Rent)—U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsConsumer Price Index – March 2021—U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsTable 1 (2017 – 2018 Weights). Relative importance of components in the Consumer Price Indexes: U.S. city average, December 2020—U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsInflation and Debt by John H. Cochrane, Fall 2011—National AffairsUS Government Finance: Debt by Dr. Edward Yardeni and Mali Quintana—Yardeni Research, Inc.Can the Central Bank Alleviate Fiscal Burdens? by Ricardo Reis—London School of Economics and Political ScienceBIS Working Papers No 902 An early stablecoin? The Bank of Amsterdam and the governance of money by Jon Frost, Hyun Song Shin, and Peter Wierts—Bank of International SettlementsEXCHANGE ARRANGEMENTS ENTERING THE 21ST CENTURY: WHICH ANCHOR WILL HOLD? by Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Kenneth S. RogoffRelated Episodes and ContentA Complete Guide to Understanding and Protecting Against Inflation287: What Causes Hyperinflation and How To Prepare For It295: Federal Reserve Insolvency and Monetizing the National Debt

In this new episode of #CapitalismAfterCoronavirus I talk with John H. Cochrane, professor of economics at Stanford University and senior fellow at The Hoover Institute. We talk the need for incentives in the reopening and about the looming inflation crisis.

今天要為大家開箱的這本新書是，⟪因子投資⟫，副標題是聰明投資者長期操作的金融理論。我不知道大家是怎麼選股的，應該有些人是完全聽別人報明牌的，或是看報紙跟雜誌的報導，或者是追逐主流的族群。或是已經放棄了，直接就做個存股族，只買高股息殖利率股票(高股息股會有超額報酬嗎？我們後面會討論)。我想有很多投資人很敬佩股神巴菲特，認為他有超凡的選股能力。借助於對像巴菲特般優秀的投資人的研究，學術界逐漸的發現這些優秀投資人，之所以成功，是因為他們找到了股票的某些關鍵特徵，或者稱之為「因子」，這些因子可以帶來高於市場平均水平的報酬率。當然本書並不是第一本從事因子的研究的書籍，已經有許多人投注了很多心力。目前能夠被辨識的因子有約600個，芝加哥大學約翰 寇克蘭( John H. Cochrane)，稱之為「因子動物園」。今天這本書的重點就是以科學化的角度重新去檢視能夠讓你產生「超額報酬」（或簡稱為溢酬）的原因。同時從600個因子中，篩選出8個最具代表性的因子。本書大約有15萬字，我將利用2集節目的時間，來解說書中精華。但書中對專有名詞的翻譯並不符合台灣使用的習慣。甚至也不是簡體版專業金融書籍的用詞，因為我也閱讀簡體版的金融教科書。這造成閱讀上極大的干擾。 你可以在下面連結閱讀文稿：https://medium.com/@channelzkimo/78來開箱-因子投資-上-e09eb63a7f99 --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/u694au6bd4u723e/message

John H. Cochrane is the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He is also a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and an adjunct scholar of the CATO Institute.  Before joining Hoover, Cochrane was  a Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, and earlier at […]

Recorded March 23, 2020, 11AM PST Hoover Senior Fellow John H. Cochrane provides a briefing on the COVID-19 pandemic and how it is affecting the US economy. The Hoover Institution presents an online virtual briefing series on pressing policy issues, including health care, the economy, democratic governance, and national security. Briefings will include thoughtful and informed analysis from our top scholars ABOUT THE FELLOW John H. Cochrane is the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, was a junior staff economist on the Council of Economic Advisers (1982–83), and maintains the Grumpy Economist blog. To receive notifications about upcoming briefings, please sign up by clicking here: http://eepurl.com/gXjSSb.

My guest today is John H. Cochrane, the AQR Capital Management Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. The topic is Chicago school economics. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Warren Buffett's quote that he “would have made a fortune” if the banks weren't bailed out Crony capitalism Why “a good Bear failure may have saved us from a bad Lehman failure” The cost of regulation Uber, taxi service, and regulation Why commodities keep getting cheaper and cheaper, but people with expertise keep getting more and more expensive The idea of discretion Healthcare Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

Michael Covel talks with John H. Cochrane on today’s podcast. Cochrane is the AQR Capital Management Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Covel and Cochrane cover wide territory today. Covel and Cochrane discuss Warren Buffett’s quote that he “would have made a fortune” if the banks weren’t bailed out; crony capitalism; why “a good Bear failure may have saved us from a bad Lehman failure”; the cost of regulation; Uber, taxi service, and regulation; why commodities keep getting cheaper and cheaper, but people with expertise keep getting more and more expensive; the idea of discretion; and healthcare. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

John H. Cochrane, AQR Capital Management Professor of Finance spoke at a Myron Scholes Global Market Forum event sponsored by the Initiative on Global Markets. He discusses his research on fiscal and monetary policy in 2008 – 09 as he seeks to determine whether the U.S. is headed for a large fiscal inflation, and what that inflation will look like.

John H. Cochrane, AQR Capital Management Professor of Finance spoke at a Myron Scholes Global Market Forum event sponsored by the Initiative on Global Markets. He discusses his research on fiscal and monetary policy in 2008 – 09 as he seeks to determine whether the U.S. is headed for a large fiscal inflation, and what that inflation will look like.

AQR Capital Management Professor of Finance John H. Cochrane talked to students at a Becker Brown Bag Series sponsored by the Becker Center on Chicago Price Theory about proposed solutions to public policies distorting the health care market.

AQR Capital Management Professor of Finance John H. Cochrane talked to students at a Becker Brown Bag Series sponsored by the Becker Center on Chicago Price Theory about proposed solutions to public policies distorting the health care market.