Podcast appearances and mentions of Adam Taggart

Rich & Matt share thoughts about the late Gene Hackman, followed by market commentary and Bitcoin's behavior: It's NOT a diversifier, but quite speculative. Observations about market performance during the first year of a new presidency. Rich shares his childhood wardrobe prompts (Gene Hackman), and talks PCE preview and the price of eggs. A look at the Social Security Fairness Act provisions that appear to provide back pay to some retirees, effective immediately. Some are in for a windfall as a result of the elimination of the Windfall Elimination Provision in the Social Security Fairness act. Rich and Matt discuss Social Security Reform Updates, Windfall Elimination Provision is Explained, along with Government Pension Offset Changes, and how some retiree benefits could increase almost immediately. A few choice words about the SSA and IRS computer systems. Health is connected to wealth; the Taste of Texas acquires an amazing artifact; Lance publishes his tome on CAPE-5 Valuation. Richard addresses the creation of a personal rate of return you need to know; Bitcoin is not going to bail out your weakened portfolio. Be realistic in your forward-looking estimates. SEG-1a: Gene Hackman Obit SEG-1b: Why Bitcoin is Not a Diversifier SEG-2a: Wardrobe Cues from Gene Hackman SEG-2b: Core PCE Preview & Egg Inflation SEG-2c: Social Security Fairness Act Immediacy SEG-3: Health, Wealth, & CAPE-5 Valuation SEG-4: Creating a Personal Rate of Return Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w w Senior Relationship Manager, Matt Doyle, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT CANDID COFFEE (3/29/25) HERE: https://streamyard.com/watch/Gy68mipYram2 ------- Watch today's full show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eg6iAmcB7hE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3026s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Consumers Are Losing Confidence" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/consumers-are-losing-confidence/ "Estimates By Analysts Have Gone Parabolic" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/estimates-by-analysts-have-gone-parabolic/ "Margin Balances Suggest Risks Are Building" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/margin-balances-suggests-risks-are-building/ Adam Taggart & Lance Roberts: "Market Correction "Near Guaranteed" Given Insanely High Earnings Expectations: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjVdeFPFXfs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuh0I07NdQcssCvh6_yDa9bz&index=1&t=7s ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Nvidia Beats - What Now?," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcDdE867HOo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Nvidia Beats - What Now?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yr9yuEqtyZE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2&t=4s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SocialSecurityFairness #RetirementReform #SocialSecurity #FinancialJustice #WeDeserveBetter #MarketRally #BitCoin #ContrarianIndicator #BondMarket #EggPrices #FederalReserve #ReflexiveRally #FinancialNews #EconomicImpact #MarketVolatility #MarginBalances #FinancialRisks #InvestmentTalk #StockMarketTrends #InvestingTrends #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index falls to -4.3: Looks like the data is catching up with reality. Excess Savings Metric: Most are in no better financial shape than before the pandemic; implications to companies' earnings that the bottom 90% are beginning to struggle. Markets challenged the 50-DMA and failed on Monday; likely to be in a corrective phase for a while. "If I were President, the first thing I would do..." Lance and Jonathan solve all problems: Cleaning up D.C. first, and the changes are not going to be without pain. Analysts are extremely optimistic in their earnings estimates for 2026; investors should be careful about over-paying for stocks priced based on these estimates. What Valuation really means: Sentiment. The Schiller CAPE Ratio vs Lance's 5-yar CAPE Ratio (coming attraction!) Investing like Tiger-21 investors: High Net-worth investors' portfolio allocations; key to success is in assets that are not correlated to smooth out volatility. What is true diversification. Why NOT put assets (Gold, Real Estate) into an IRA? Lance and Jonathan provide sound advice here. Is the DOGE Dividend a good idea? Better ways to maximize fat-cutting savings without igniting more inflation. SEG-1: Economic Data is Catching Up w Reality SEG-2: Cleaning up D.C. & Optimistic Analysts SEG-3a What Valuations Really Mean SEG-3b: High Net-worth Investors & Private Equity SEG-4a: Why Not Put Assets in IRA? SEG-4b: The DOGE Dividend: Best Practices Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT CANDID COFFEE (3/29/25) HERE: https://streamyard.com/watch/Gy68mipYram2 ------- Watch today's full show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UOE_9qtSGU&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2808s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Estimates By Analysts Have Gone Parabolic" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/estimates-by-analysts-have-gone-parabolic/ "Margin Balances Suggest Risks Are Building" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/margin-balances-suggests-risks-are-building/ Adam Taggart & Lance Roberts: "Market Correction "Near Guaranteed" Given Insanely High Earnings Expectations: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjVdeFPFXfs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuh0I07NdQcssCvh6_yDa9bz&index=1&t=7s ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets In Corrective Phase," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_Qnw3WH9qU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "New Coronavirus Discovery Shakes Markets" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1hXd_Jg4mg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketSellOff #MarketCatalyst #MarketCorrection #MoneyFlows #Nvidia #PCE #FederalReserve #ReflexiveRally #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #CoronavirusDiscovery #StockMarketForecast #AnalystEstimates #ParabolicStocks #EarningsSeason #MarketTrends #MarketSellOff #MarketCatalyst #WuhanLab #CoronaVirus #OptionsExpiration #ReflexiveRally #50DMA #COVID #AllTimeHighs #MarketMomentum #RelativeStrenth #PriceCompression #MACDBuySignal #CoronavirusDiscovery #MarketShakeup #FinancialNews #EconomicImpact #MarketVolatility #MarginBalances #FinancialRisks #InvestmentTalk #StockMarketTrends #InvestingTrends #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Lance has come up with a new business model for a Help Desk subscription service. It works on anything. The problem with margin debt; there's no appetite for IPO's. What Wall st. is doing instead. market sell off on Friday more the result of volatility around options expiration than Wuhan Lab news of the second coming of Covid. Don't expect any reflex rally today to hold. Economic indicators continue to hint at weaknesses; be aware of the content feeding sentiment surveys. There is a Republican and Democrat dynamic to the data and its interpretation. Two expectations feed into term Premium. Coming this week: The second revision to Q4 GDP (as opposed to China's one-and-done reporting. Or else.) PCE inflation report preview. Will markets ever never focus on Data next-day-ism? (no.) Lance recounts his first exposure to investing, 'Learning from Mr. Lehman." Reading the WSJ, the news was days-old, and average stock holding period was 7-years; contrast with velocity of information today, and average stock holding period not is 4-months. Markets have become like casinos (and the house always wins). What does all of this have to do with margin debt? Short-termism & Market casinos: knowing the rules. Margin debt vs stock prices. The velocity of increase in margin debt is alarming: It provides buying power on the way up, but also adds fuel for selling power on the way down. Margin calls create mandatory selling. SEG-1: Market Correction Not Unexpected SEG-2: Economic Indicators Continue to Show Weakness SEG-3: Learning from Mr. Lehman SEG-4: Short-termism, Market Casino's, and Margin Debt Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT CANDID COFFEE (3/29/25) HERE: https://streamyard.com/watch/Gy68mipYram2 ------- Watch today's full show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1hXd_Jg4mg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Margin Balances Suggest Risks Are Building" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/margin-balances-suggests-risks-are-building/ Adam Taggart & Lance Roberts: "Market Correction "Near Guaranteed" Given Insanely High Earnings Expectations: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjVdeFPFXfs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuh0I07NdQcssCvh6_yDa9bz&index=1&t=7s ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Can Markets' Reflex Rally Hold?," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I41LvgZmcZc&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "When Bears Come Out of Hibernation" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-v7Z4cEX1E&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketSellOff #MarketCatalyst #WuhanLab #CoronaVirus #OptionsExpiration #ReflexiveRally #50DMA #COVID #AllTimeHighs #MarketMomentum #RelativeStrenth #PriceCompression #MACDBuySignal #CoronavirusDiscovery #MarketShakeup #FinancialNews #EconomicImpact #MarketVolatility #MarginBalances #FinancialRisks #InvestmentTalk #StockMarketTrends#InvestingTrends #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Are investors TOO bullish now?Portfolio manager Lance Roberts is concerned they are. Wall Street is flush with money and throwing it at just about every asset right now.Lance sees a lot of similarities to late 2021/early 2022, right before the over-valued markets corrected by 20%...but many retail investors lost 40-50% of their portfolio wealth because they were exposed to too much leverage.Will that happen this year?We'll find out. But Lance is confident this year will be a lot more volatile than today's complacent investors have become used to.We discuss all this and more, including the recent inflation data, DOGE, tariffs, the latest market technicals, and Lance's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Recap.BUY YOUR TICKET AT THE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

The market has been tossed a lot of surprises lately -- even a near-black swan (DeepSeek) -- and yet, stocks have shrugged off all the uncertainty.Investor sentiment remains sky-high.And concern of the growing list of risk factors appears quite low.So, is "irrational exuberance" back?That's what portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz and I discuss in today's video, as well as his current outlook for the bond market, the latest jobs data, the distorting impact single-stock ETFs are having on equity prices, whether the US dollar will strengthen or weaken from here, and Michael's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Update.BUY YOUR TICKET AT THE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

This week was a roller-coaster ride for the markets. Stocks weakened as the week progressed, and then really started falling after Nvidia's guidance failed to restore confidence in investors.But then the markets rallied hard into the close on Friday. Which is causing investors everyone to ask:Is the sell-off over?Or, is this merely a head-fake before prices resume their decline?Adding to the uncertainty is the sudden rash of recession worries making it back into media headlines. The latest consumer confidence numbers are plummeting and the Atlanta GDPNow's Q1 GDP estimate suddenly plunged to a negative forecast.Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss all of this, plus what the latest technical analysis is telling us, rising bond prices, DOGE, the weakening housing market, and Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Recap.TIME'S RUNNING OUT! BUY YOUR TICKET AT THE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

Well, despite a week of high uncertainty -- the DeepSeek surprise, earnings releases for many of the Magnificent 7 stocks, a terrible aviation disaster and the declaration of tariffs against some of America's largest trading partners -- the markets actually seem to be doing fine. The bulls are back in control and, technically-speaking, the action in stocks looks robust at the moment. Will this sustain? And for how long? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss this, as well as the latest inflation data, the latest GDP data, the increasingly-struggling US consumer, and Lance's firms latest trades. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this new Weekly Recap. BUY YOUR TICKET AT THE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts warns that corporate earnings expectations are likely unrealistic, and that one Wall Street realizes this, stock prices will have to come down. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts lays out the odds for where stocks are headed next. We also discuss the rising bond term premium & what it means, the risk of a large market drawdown in 2025, Lance fir'sm latest trades and the benefits of using time to your advantage in both investing & life. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

The drivers that support economic growth and earnings are slowing down. And valuations are stretched to record extremes. For these reasons, portfolio manager Lance Roberts is turning significantly more tactically bearish on stock this year. This doesn't necessarily mean he expects an imminent crash. But it does mean he expects stocks to put in a much more disappointing year than investors have become used to after back-to-back 20%+ annual returns. We discuss his outlook in depth, as well as the new payrolls data, rising bond yields, why credit spreads remain so tight, and his firm's latest trades. For everything that mattered to markets, watch this new Weekly Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

The stock market has seen two consecutive years of 20% returns. Will it see similar returns this year? Highly unlikely, cautions portfolio manager Lance Roberts. Complacent bulls hoping for a repeat performance may well find themselves disappointed with 2025. We discuss the reasons why, the latest market technicals, the potential impact of domestic terrorist acts could have on the financial markets, and Bob Farrell's Top 10 Investment Rules on today's program. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

The world is in love with US stocks right now. Valuations are at or near all-time record highs. Same with measures of euphoria and investor confidence in stocks. US stocks have never made up as a great a percentage of global market cap as they do now. Retail investors (including seniors!) have never been this long stocks. As portfolio manager Lance Roberts explains in this interview, we only see conditions like these are market peaks. So, is the stock market peaking here? Lance and I discuss the odds, as well as his key takeaways from 2024, his market outlook for 2025, and his firm's recent trades. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this new Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

The Fed caught markets by surprise this week when it guided that the pace of future rate cuts will be slower than initially expected. Stocks sold off hard on the news and bond yields spiked. Friday saw some recovery, causing investors to wonder: Is a Santa Claus rally still likely? Or could a Grinch bust be in the cards now? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds, as well as the latest inflation data, his macro and market outlook for 2025, and his firm's latest trades. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this new Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Stocks have been choppy over recent weeks, as portfolio manager Lance Roberts predicted due to end-of-year rebalancing by the major Wall Street funds. Once that wave is over, does a Santa Claus rally still look likely to occur? Lance and I discuss the odds of this, as well as the recent inflation data, poor price action in bonds, market correction risk in 2025, and Lance's firm's latest trades. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this new Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Stocks are currently at record levels of euphoria as measured by the Euphoriaometer (yes, such a thing exists!) While he still expects a Santa Claus rally into year end, between now and then, portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks there's good probability of a short-term pullback. We discuss the reasons for that, as well as current technical indicators for the S&P, market sentiment, the latest Payrolls data, the risk of a much larger market correction in 2025, as well as Lance's latest trades. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bullmarket #marketcorrection #jobsreport --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Credit spreads are about the tightest they've ever been in history. High yield (aka "junk") debt is priced at very low premium to US Treasury debt, the safest asset in the world That says the bond market is just not worried about risk. So either, "everything truly is awesome"...or the market is mis-pricing risk here, perhaps dangerously so. Whether or not that's the case, it's highly unlikely those expecting a material downwards market correction will see one until credit spreads start widening. Which is why monitoring them closely is such a high priority. Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the importance of credit spreads, the new inflation & jobs data, bond yields, the latest technical analysis for stocks, as well as Lance's firm's recent trades. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Weekly Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #creditspreads #inflation #interestrates --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

While stocks have been choppy the 20 Day Moving Average has been acting as solid support. If it indeed holds and stocks rebound, the rising uptrend will remain intact and S&P 6200 becomes a real possibility by the end of December. That would indeed make for a jolly "Santa Claus rally". Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds of this happening, as well as year end portfolio planning strategies, Bitcoin, the perverse incentive driving today's financial system, and Lance's firm's latest trades. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this new Weekly Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

In this week's Weekly Market Recap portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I talk about the round-trip the stock market has made since the Election. Is the rally likely to resume? Or was the exuberance short-lived? We also talk bonds, the recent inflation numbers, Lance's recent trades, and the wisdom of conducting year-end planning on your portfolio before 2025 arrives. For that and more, watch this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #trumpeconomy #stockmarketrally #inflation --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Stocks and bonds both surged higher once the election was called for President-elect Trump this week. Technically and capital flow-wise, there are a number of reasons to expect stocks to keep running higher to year end and into 2025, though that won't happen without some pullbacks along the ways, counsels portfolio manager Lance Roberts. This week also saw the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by a further 0.25%, with Fed Chair projecting confidence that a soft landing is in the cards. All this raises an interesting question: If bull markets "climb a wall of worry", are we running out of worry? Lance and I discuss that, the breakout in stocks, the future of bonds yields, what Trumps proposed policies will mean for the economy, and Lance's firm's latest trades in this week's Market Recap. SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bullmarket #trumpelection #interestrates --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

In this week's Market Recap, portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the drivers of this week's turbulence in stocks (especially the Magnificent 7 tech stocks), the disappointing payrolls numbers, the impact of the upcoming presidential election as well as the resumption of buybacks on markets, as well as Lance's firm's recent trades. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #election2024 #magnificent7 #payrolls --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

The S&P has been on a tear of late, rising on a weekly basis for six consecutive weeks. That kind of win streak doesn't happen very often. And...it ended yesterday. Not only did stocks close down for the week (slightly), but they broke out of the rising wedge technical pattern they've been trading in -- to the downside. Portfolio manager Lance Roberts would not be surprised to see a near-term pullback deepen from here, especially given how close the US presidential election is at this point. It would be very rational for fund managers to lock in some of the near-term gains they've just enjoyed and de-risk from here, to wait until the dust settles after the election. We discuss the odds of that that, as well as the continued rise in bond yields, Lance's latest trades, and the seeds that sowed the American Revolution in this week's Market Recap. #bullmarket #bondyields #interestrates --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Bullish signals were everywhere this week. The S&P broke above it rising wedge. It retested support & then made new highs. And buy signals on both a daily and a weekly basis have been recently triggered. All this bodes well for a strong end to the year, predicts portfolio manager Lance Roberts...except that in the immediate term, stocks are looking overbought and some sort of pullback feels warranted. Lance and I talk about this potential run-up into the end of the year, as well as rising liquidity, credit spreads, earning estimates, volatility and much more in this week's Market Recap. BUY THE REPLAY of the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference #liquidity #volatility #bullmarket --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

In 2024 so far, stocks have had one of the best years in decades. And that's on top of a great year in 2023. Bulls are obviously cheering this, but how long can the party continue? Stocks are richly priced here. And if earnings don't start growing aggressively, at some point, prices will have to correct, warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts. That said, a new buy signal just got triggered this week (invalidating last week's sell signal). So investors need to determine how much risk they want to take to pursue upside from here vs the growing risks of overvaluation. Lance and I discuss this, as well as this week's new inflation data, bonds and the wisdom of Howard Marks in this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bullmarket #inflation #technicalanalysis --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

While there is a "tsunami" of liquidity currently flowing that can power stocks higher into year end, in the near term, stocks are looking over-bought and a (short-term) sell signal was triggered this week says portfolio manager Lance Roberts. So between now and the election, be prepared for stocks to trade sluggishly and/or weaken. Other than that, though, the developments this week have been largely favorable for the economy. Very strong jobs numbers (if we can believe them), a resolution to the longshoremen strike that threatened to paralyze ports along the US Gulf and East coasts, and a potential resumption of student loan forgiveness. We talk about all that and more, including Lance's firm's latest trades, in this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #jobsreport #liquidity #bearmarket --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

In the wake of interest rates cuts now coming from the Federal Reserve, the ECB and the Bank of China, could the stock market experience a melt-up to S&P 600 -- or higher -- by the end of the year? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks it's quite possible, especially given stocks' recent technical breakout. We talk in depth about that in this week's Market Recap, as well as the latest inflation data (PCE), the recent revisions to GDP, GDI and personal savings, and the continued risk to the Yen/Dollar carry trade now that a more hawkish Japanese Prime Minister has been elected. ONLY 48 HOURS LEFT TO LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT for the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference by registering now at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference #bullmarket #S&P6000 #interestratecut --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

The Fed dropped the Federal Funds Rate by 50 basis point this week, ushering in a new monetary regime. Investors need to the know that the playbook has changed. Delivering what sounded like a "mission accomplished" press conference this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is projecting confidence that inflation is nearly beaten, unemployment remains low, and economic growth is solid. He doesn't see recession as a visible threat here. So has the Fed indeed achieved a soft landing? Or... is the large rate cut a sign the Fed is actually worried it's already behind the curve? I discuss this with portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz. He suspects the Fed is worried, and for certain he thinks that the switch to cutting rates has changed the rules for investing. In his words: now is the time to re-evaluate what you own. How will it perform in a era of falling interest rates? For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Weekly Market Recap. ONLY 1 WEEK LEFT TO LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT for the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference by registering now at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference #interestrates #inflation #recession --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Well, the correction that was underway last week appears to have been short-lived. Stocks bounced hard this week, with the S&P up over 200 points. We're at an important point technically, where the current momentum needs to continue to affirm the rally. If not, and we get a triple top, there's a decent chance stocks could then resume a downward slide. Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds, as well as the inflation and jobs data that came out this week, the approaching Fed rate cut(s), the importance of optimism to successful investing and Lance's firm's recent trades. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Recap. LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT for the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference by registering now at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference #inflation #jobs #bullmarket --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Stocks have had a bad week, make worse on Friday when a mixed payrolls report sent investors into a tizzy trying to speculate whether deeper interest rate cuts were more or less likely in September. They eventually decided the latter, and then sent the price of many assets markedly lower. Portfolio Lance Roberts says the correction he's been expecting pre-election is now here. The big question from here is: how far will it go? Lance and I discuss that, plus the weakening jobs data, a recent un-inversion of the yield curve, the sell-off in AI darling Nvidia, and Lance's firm's recent trades in this week's Market Recap. LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT for the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference by registering now at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference #bearmarket #marketcorrection #bonds --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

The markets are back to overbought levels in the near term, both stocks and bonds, assesses portfolio manager Lance Roberts. And while he doesn't think an economic calamity necessarily lies ahead, we don't need one to justify a material downward correction in stocks. Stocks are valued based on their earnings forecast, and right now, forecasts are rosy. But there are multiplying signs that trouble lies ahead, especially in terms of consumer spending. If the economy does indeed slow from here, earnings will fall and stock prices will suffer. Right now, stocks are NOT priced for slowing earnings. Lance and I discuss this risk to asset prices, as well as Nvidia's recent earnings, the AI story in general, the struggling majority of American households and Lance's firm's latest trades in this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #nvidia #inflation #stockmarketcorrection --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Now that Jerome Powell has gone "full pivot", will stocks shoot higher? Not necessarily, says portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz, who steps in this week while Lance Roberts moves into his new house. He thinks stocks will be on a "choppy road to nowhere" between now and the election. We discuss why, as well as his rosy outlook for long-duration bonds on this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bonds #fedpivot #interestrates --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Stocks have recovered aggressively since the sell-off two weeks ago. Does that signal the market correction that started in mid-July is over? Likely so, thinks portfolio manager Lance Roberts. We discuss the reasons why, as well as how his firm plans to position for higher prices ahead in this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #inflation #bullmarket #recession --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

What a week! The unwind of the yen carry trade sent global markets into free-fall on Monday. Equities tanked, as did Bitcoin, oil and gold. US Treasurys jumped, returning to their traditional inverse relationship to stocks. And then...everything reversed. Most due to central bank intervention in Japan, as well as some better than expected jobs data in the US. So, everyone is asking: Is the sell-off over? Is now the time to buy back in? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts doesn't think so (yet). In this week's Market Recap, we discuss why, as well as his outlook for the months ahead and his firm's recent trades. For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #investing #stocks #stevejobs --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Friday's payrolls report miss and subsequent triggering of the Sahm Rule recession indictor caused stocks to continue their sell-off From their mid-July highs, the S&P is down -6%, the Nasdaq is down -10% and the Russell is down -7% How much further will the sell-off go? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss that in this week's highly animated Market Recap, along with the recent jobs data, the FOMC release, Jerome Powell's recent press conference, the latest market technicals, and Lance's recent trades. For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #marketcorrection #recession #jobsreport --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

While it looks like stocks could continue bouncing higher in the immediate term, portfolio manager Lance Roberts isn't convinced the sell-off is done yet. He and his firm aren't back to buying yet, as they expect a better chance to enter at lower prices in coming weeks. We discuss that, as well as the recent upwards surprise in GDP, Fed rate cut odds, Zombie company risk, the un-inverting yield curve, and Lance's firm's latest trades. For all the mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Well, portfolio manager Lance Roberts has been warning for a while now that stocks were materially overbought and due for a 5%+ correction. And it looks like that started this week, with the S&P selling off 3% over the past 3 trading days. Interestingly, it began with a massive flow of capital into small cap stocks, though that moderated a bit as the week progressed. Whether or not this is the beginning of a Great Rotation from Big Growth into Small Value remains to be seen. But more interesting to Lance is that credit spreads are starting to widen in lower-quality bonds. This is the first rumblings of concern we've seen in the part of the market that truly matters. Is a sleeping dragon awakening here? Lance and I discuss that as well as the likely economic implications of Trump's economic plan, whether the Fed will really cut rates in September, and Lance's firm's latest trades. For everything that mattered to markets, watch this Weekly Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #creditspreads #trumpeconomy #interestrates --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Learn how garages and parking areas add value to property. Find out how to earn more rent for your garage space. Adding a garage to a rental doesn't fetch much more rent income. But you will rent your place faster and tenants stay longer. To get more rent for a detached garage, rent it to an off-site tenant. The future of parking and garages is positioned to be shaken by autonomous cars. Fewer people will need to own or park cars. Meet me in-person at the next New Orleans Investment Conference. It's November 20th - 23rd, 2024. Register here. Brien Lundin joins us. He is the host of the world's longest-running investment conference, the New Orleans Investment Conference. He's also editor of Gold Newsletter. He & I discuss inflation, interest rates, real estate, and gold.  Gold is up 20%+ annually. This is because foreign nations, like China, are beginning to prefer to own gold rather than US debt. There's a case for interest rates to go higher, another case for them to go lower. Brien tells us why he believes the gold price will keep rising. Increasingly, asset values are positively correlated—real estate, stocks, gold, crypto, oil, and even collectibles. Personally, though I don't see evidence that gold builds wealth, history shows that it's a good place to store wealth. Meet me in-person at the next New Orleans Investment Conference. It's November 20th - 23rd, 2024. Register here. Resources mentioned: Meet me in-person at the next New Orleans Investment Conference. It's November 20th - 23rd, 2024.  Register here. For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation   Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) -  Welcome to GRE! I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Learn about garage real estate, how garages and parking add value to your property, and how to get more rent for the garage. Then we go from micro to macro. As we talk about the enduring value of a real asset that's minted, not printed, and another chance to meet me in person today and Get Rich Education.   Robert Syslo (00:00:27) -  Since 2014, the powerful get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Weinhold, who writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener.   Robert Syslo (00:01:01) -  Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich education.com.   Keith Weinhold (00:01:29) -  Welcome to GRE! From Saint Augustine, Florida, to Saint Paul, Minnesota, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get Rich education as we cover a component of property that's a little talked about, garages and we're a real estate investing show. You learn about ways to optimize the rent income that a garage can produce for you, too. Now, if the home that you currently live in has a garage, it could be the entrance to the home that you use even more often than your own front door. That's how important and useful it's become. And understand that garages on homes, they didn't even exist until about 100 years ago, because that's when cars began to become popular. The emergence of the garage in American real estate is one reason for the downfall of the big front porch. You rarely see big porches on modern homes.   Keith Weinhold (00:02:26) -  Interestingly, some of America's most successful companies began in garages, places where you have workbenches and can tinker around with things. Google and Nike were launched in garages, and it's also where people store lots of things, sometimes so many things that they can't even get their car in there anymore. In fact, the word garage comes from the French garage. Spell that g a r e r meaning to store. But yeah, when cars became more popular in the 1920s and 1930s, that's when you begin to see garages. And then as cars got larger, garages got larger. And by the 1960s, as families began to own not just one car but 2 or 3 cars, garages became larger again, and a three car garage is pretty common today in a single family home, though it's rarely that big in a property that you're going to rent out. Now, if you've got a single family home and it does not have a garage and you want to make a garage addition. Well, you can only expect to recoup 65 to 80% of what you've spent.   Keith Weinhold (00:03:40) -  So it is a money loser. Then it really doesn't make sense to add one to a rental, perhaps only your primary residence, since you get the benefit of using it yourself that way. And if you add a garage to a rental, you know you just really can't get that much more in rent for it. It's usually not worth it, although the financials can look better for a carport addition instead. Now, if you've got a rental with the garage rather than without one, it actually can help you get your place rented out faster. But a tenants really not going to pay you even as much as 10% more in overall rent in most every case. Yet see, what happens is that a tenant, they tend to fill up the garage with stuff, and therefore they tend to stay longer than if there were no garage. A garage is one reason that single family rentals see longer tenant durations then apartments. Now, if your property though, if it's in a built up area and there's little on street parking, oh well then the addition of a garage that could have more of an impact on the value of your property than it would out in the suburbs.   Keith Weinhold (00:04:53) -  The garage does not count toward the square footage of a property because that's considered unfinished space. And your prospective tenant? They might not know that fact about the square footage. So that's something for you to keep in mind when you're advertising a home with a garage for rent. Now, older houses, they're more likely to have a detached garage is its own separate standalone structure that's built near the house. But you would have to walk outdoors in order to get from the house to the detached garage. In fact, the home that I grew up in and that my parents still live in in Pennsylvania has a detached garage. Their home was built around the year 1915, so more than 100 years ago, and my parent's garage also didn't have an automatic garage door opener for most of my life. I remember the big yank up that you'd have to make on the heavy door. So when my mom was about to back out of the garage when she was going to take me somewhere, what I would do is I would stand outdoors until she backed out so that I could open and then close the door by hand and then get in the car.   Keith Weinhold (00:06:06) -  Gotta get those legs under it and enjoy one deep squat there, Well, one reason that old houses have garages often detached from the rest of the home is for risk of gasoline explosion. That's because back 100 years ago, gas was stored in the garage because gas stations were yet to be invented. So you've got this trail of detached garages left behind in older neighborhoods, and some people still prefer a detached garage. Now there's a way for you to get more rent income if you're renting out a single family home with a detached garage, and this isn't always going to be feasible based on how the property's set up. But the way to do it is for you to get an off site tenant to rent your garage. Oftentimes, the renter of your single family home, you know, they just don't have as high of an income as someone does that lives in an upper crust neighborhood that might have a lot of toys to store their, be it a boat or an antique car, or even an RV, perhaps.   Keith Weinhold (00:07:13) -  Well, that off site renter in the better neighborhood, you know they're going to pay you to store their cars or their other stuff in your detached garage In that case, your rental home and garage would have two separate tenants, and you will enjoy more overall rent income than if one tenant was renting both the home and the detached garage. So what you really want to learn is you do your research though, is what laws cover the renting of a garage or a storage space because they typically fall outside the jurisdiction of landlord and tenant laws. But you need to verify that depending on your state or your area. Sometimes running a garage is the equivalent of renting a warehouse space, and the rules can be different when it comes to payment issues or other problems. And when you realize that some garages can even have dirt floors, you can see how different it is than a living space. Now, even if you're thinking about renting your garage to an offsite tenant. Most of the time making garage upgrades, it's just really not worth it.   Keith Weinhold (00:08:19) -  But note that I said most of the time. On the other hand, if you can make it marketable, maybe you need to do something smaller, like add an automatic garage door opener if it doesn't have one, and then you'll have to run the numbers to see if that is worth it. Now, one mistake that I made out of property, it wasn't that first ever seminal fourplex that I owned, but the second fourplex that I owned there in that building, each tenant had a small, simple one car attached garage, and then as each four plex unit went vacant, I went in and painted the inside the walls and ceiling of all four garages with a fresh coat of paint, and I would learn later that was not a good use of my time. It didn't help me get any more in rent. No tenant is really even going to stay longer for fresh garage paint, but frankly, I'm just not a handyman. I don't know how to fix anything. So one of the few ways that I knew how to add value, I thought was rolling a paintbrush over the inside of garage walls like I know how to paint and not much else replacing a faucet.   Keith Weinhold (00:09:29) -  Whoa, that right there. We're getting into, like, intimidating territory. Okay for me. In any case, duplexes in fourplex, they can often have garages, especially newer ones. And I think I mentioned to you here on the show before that I once owned an eight plex. It was a little quirky. It had a small single attached garage that was kind of on the end of the building. So eight units and just a one car garage. And actually this is a good example because those tenants, they paid about $1,500 for their unit, so none of them could really swing it. None of them could afford to pay an extra $400 for the garage. So again, the way to solve that is rent to a more affluent off site tenant. That's what I did. And I got 400 bucks. Now, understand something. When you're driving a neighborhood or you're looking on Google Maps, at times it can look like a home has a two car garage because you're only looking at the widths of the garage door.   Keith Weinhold (00:10:29) -  But that can really be a three car garage because on one side, the garage bay goes two cars deep, so you can't always tell how many cars a garage can hold just by looking at the width of the garage door. One reason that developers in Hoa's actually like garages that are too deep is that way. The driveway is more narrow. When driveways are more narrow, that means there's less asphalt and more green space in neighborhoods. Now, in some places, it doesn't matter too much if the garage is full of stuff and you have to park in the driveway, but in a cold, snowy place, it really helps to park cars inside the garage. So garages are typically more valuable to residents in areas that have real winters. In an apartment building, it can help to have assigned spaces for tenants. When I bought apartments, I've always loved it to my property manager to figure out the space assignments and rental property. Upgrading and resurfacing parking areas is another money loser. Now, we don't want to be slumlords, but the truth is repaving and re striping a parking lot that might look nice.   Keith Weinhold (00:11:44) -  You might do that. but the reality is that it will get you practically zero extra rent. Not a good ROI. Well, that's a take on garage's past and present. What about the future of garages and parking areas when it comes to the future? And this harkens back to episode 13 of this show. Yes, that's when I discussed driverless cars, also known as autonomous cars. Back in January of 2015, nine and a half years ago. Well, when autonomous cars become popular, which many expect will still happen, it's likely that fewer people are going to own cars at all. They will just have a car subscription. The autonomous car will pick you up and drop you off, and more people will convert their garages into living space like another bedroom. If that does indeed eventually happen. But autonomous car adoption has hit roadblocks since episode 13 of this show back in 2015, and that's generally because autonomous cars keep having accidents. Although Waymo is perhaps the one company that's made more headway lately, you're seeing their autonomous taxis in use in some cities right now.   Keith Weinhold (00:13:03) -  Currently, a car spends 95% of its life being parked, but garages, parking lots, and parking garages are all poised to be less useful when fewer people own a car. Instead, these autonomous cars are just going to drop you off, pick you up, and then constantly stay moving. Stay out on the road rather than park at all. EVs are a factor here to electric vehicles. They can be thousands of pounds heavier than the average gas powered vehicle, and experts out there are warning that the extra weight from EVs that could cause older parking garages to collapse unless steps are taken to buttress those structures. I mean, that's a problem. If geotechnical and structural engineers didn't design EVs on older parking garages decades and decades ago parking lots, they have definitely fallen out of favor among some, but they are still building lots of them. Critics say that to have to build minimum parking spaces on new projects, well, that hinders new housing construction, and also encourages people to drive rather than take public transit parking lot.   Keith Weinhold (00:14:18) -  Critics. They also argue that parking lots and garages, they fill up precious urban real estate with these sort of soulless, concrete eyesores, making cities more sprawling and less convenient. And you tend to see this more in cities west of the Mississippi River. In the east, you have more cities on gridded street patterns that are more dense because they were laid out and developed before cars took over and sprawled so many cities, but with as many changes that autonomous vehicles could bring to the parking world and make things like car ownership less important and car parking less important, I sure would ask a lot of questions before I invested in any sort of parking related real estate. Today we've been talking about real estate in the micro so far today. Garages and parking surely will pivot to the macro as we discuss an asset that's minted not printed. That's next. I'm Keith Weinhold, you're listening to episode 510 of get Rich education. Listen to this. Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge Lending Group Nmls 42056.   Keith Weinhold (00:15:36) -  They provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation. Because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire. With leverage, you can start your prequalification and chat with President Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridge Lending group.com. That's Ridge Lending group.com. And your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4%, you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk. Your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25 K. You keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back there. Decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor, to earn 8%.   Keith Weinhold (00:16:50) -  Hundreds of others are text family to 66866. Learn more about Freedom Family Investments Liquidity Fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866.   Robert Kiyosaki (00:17:08) -  This is our rich dad, poor dad author Robert Kiyosaki. Listen to get Rich education with Keith wine old and there is I respect Kate is a very strong, smart, bright young man.   Keith Weinhold (00:17:26) -  It's terrific to welcome into the show a man with decades of investment analysis experience that we can learn from. He's the executive editor of Gold Newsletter, and you might know him as host of America's longest running investment conference, the famed New Orleans Investment Conference. Hey, we haven't shedded in a minute. Welcome in Brien Lundin.   Brien Lundin (00:17:48) -  Right? To be able to keep it has been a while too long.   Keith Weinhold (00:17:51) -  That's right. And now you and I each span the real asset world. I'm a real estate guy. You spend a lot of your work in teaching over there on the gold side. And we both intersect with the general economy. And, you know, Brian, I think of the general economy is having a number of abnormalities.   Keith Weinhold (00:18:11) -  Is it always does, but actually many normality to I mean, I've commented that there's actually relative normalcy in the fed funds rate and even mortgage rate levels. If you look at it historically, also home price appreciation rates, in rent appreciation rates, they're all close to historic norms, although the aberrations are probably more interesting to talk about. What are your thoughts on the economy's general direction?   Brien Lundin (00:18:37) -  Yeah, you know, it really is weird. We think about today's interest rates and how high they are. And throughout human history, the natural level of interest rates have hovered around 6%. That's kind of what it's always been for thousands of years. So what we went through over the last 16 years or so was a really abnormal period, and even going back a decade or so before that. So yeah, it looks seems like interest rates are at normal levels. What is at abnormal levels, however, is the level of debt that we have today. And and that's been created after over four decades of ever easier money, ever since Volcker killed off inflation in the 1970s and started lowering rates, we see that whenever there was a recession, the Federal Reserve had the same prescription every time it lowered interest rates, and then it would try to raise them back, but could never get past the midpoint of the previous range before another recession would come back, or the markets would throw some kind of a fit in.   Brien Lundin (00:19:40) -  The fed would then start easing again. And if you look over time, if you plot or draw a line at the bottom of every one of those interest cutting cycles, see that those bottoms of the cycles get progressively lower and lower. Till 2008, they hit zero. And then they tried to normalize it got up to 2.5% on the Fed's funds fund rate, and then had to go right back to zero at Covid. So the lesson to me is that things might seem normal if you look at the grand sweep of history, but they're anything but normal right now, and the debt loads that we have are so high they preclude anything resembling a normal interest rate. And in fact, my contention is that interest rates have to be below the rate of inflation. In other words, the currency has to depreciate at a faster rate than you're paying interest on these debts, or the whole house of cards collapses. So that's actually, while not good for the fiscal health of the US or other developed economies, it's actually good for the kind of tangible assets, real assets we are talking about real estate, gold, silver, monetary metals, even commodities.   Brien Lundin (00:20:52) -  And, you know, everything across the board as far as tangible assets.   Keith Weinhold (00:20:56) -  Yeah, we look at the long term history of interest rates 5 to 6% if If you go back hundreds of years or even thousands of years is a historic norm. The fed funds rate is now at about 5.3%. But yeah, I think what you're talking about is we seem to have a decreasing tolerance for what are really normal rates. Nothing abnormal about the rate. All that was abnormal was the rate of increase. And you know, one thing that I think about with the economy, Brian, that maybe people don't talk about enough. Is this labor shortage that we have? I mean, it is difficult to do get anyone to do my landscaping. Last year I stayed in a hotel where when I checked in, there was no human being at the check in desk. It was automated checking. Then last month, I stayed at a hotel where there was a human at the front desk, but they told me that there was not going to be any housekeeping during my state.   Keith Weinhold (00:21:46) -  So the reason that I bring this up is that a chronic labor shortage that spells entrenched upward pressure on inflation, because you have to offer higher wages to lure in workers and higher wages paid mean higher consumer prices, higher rents, more inflation and persistently high rates to combat that.   Brien Lundin (00:22:07) -  Yeah, absolutely. And you bring up a whole nother factor that very few people consider as demographics. You know, the fertility rate in the US is below the replacement rate. It's about 1.7 now, and it would have to be like 2.1. And as they say, demographics is destiny. We're not the only ones by any means. Japan went over the demographic cliff long ago. We're following all the other developed nations are as well. And in 20 or 30 years the global population will be falling. That brings about a lot of other pressures and real estate. Obviously you have, you know, the baby boomers are going to be downsizing if they can find something to move into. Besides a retirement home, had a decent mortgage rate.   Brien Lundin (00:22:50) -  You know, we have so much overhang in real estate that's sitting out there and locked up by the current interest rate. So yeah, it's an interesting dynamic we're in right now. And personally I think it's all just a result of the Federal Reserve and all these other monetary mavens whose PhDs I want to pull all these levers on the economy. And they have unintended consequences in every one of the policies that they undertake. And we're in one right now.   Keith Weinhold (00:23:20) -  We've got both inflation and a scarce supply of property that just keeps floating property values higher despite higher mortgage rates. And one place that the high inflation is often reflected is in the price of gold. Gold is up more than 20% year over year. And one thing I want to ask you about here, with regard to gold and the fact that we have this debt that you brought up earlier, Brian, is a real problem. When we look outside the US, the world's biggest economy is by far China. China has been dumping US treasuries, meaning basically that they're no longer buying our US IOUs so they no longer want our debt.   Keith Weinhold (00:23:59) -  And instead, China and other nations are increasingly parking it in gold. Now, is that one of the reasons that gold has surged?   Brien Lundin (00:24:07) -  Yeah, it is the primary reason. Or, you know, one of the primary factors why gold has surged this year in particular. And it's a weird mix of buying. This year. We saw the gold price start taking off like the 1st of March. And it was for the first six weeks or so. It was literally a relentless rise, not a down day. Setting new price records every day. And it took us a while to try and figure out or to figure out where the buying was coming from. And as it turns out, it was the result of continued buying by central banks renewed buying to an even greater degree by the people's Bank of China, and also some domestic demand from China. And that's something we had never seen before. We'd never seen Chinese investors and savers buying gold on the way up in a price trend. They usually bought on a price downtrend trying to get a bargain, but now they were following the price up.   Brien Lundin (00:25:06) -  So that contributed to everything and the factor that we had expected that did not come about in the first half of the year was a fed pivot. You know, if you look back in December, yeah, the markets are pricing in 5 or 6 fed rate cuts in 2024. And that kept getting postponed. And that was expected. I expected in most of the other analysts expected the beginning of fed rate cuts to really drive the price up higher, but it kept getting postponed. That big factor is still ahead of us. I think the markets are going to start pricing that in in a couple of months. And so what all that central bank buying and Chinese buying is done is while we were waiting for the fed to pivot in that big factor, it went ahead and added $300 to the gold price and got us into a new trading range so that when the fed pivot does hit, we're lifting off from a much higher level. So it's a good time, I think, to be an investor in gold and related assets.   Brien Lundin (00:26:07) -  I think it's also a good time to be involved in real estate and a lot of other tangible and real assets, as.   Keith Weinhold (00:26:13) -  Well as real estate investors we are interested in that interest rate direction. And, you know, if the US is continually finding themselves in a position where they're wondering, well, hey, if not China and others will, then who in the heck is going to buy our debt? And now you? I think the listener you can ask yourself in the same way, if you're trying to get your friends to give you a loan, How do you entice your friends to give you a loan? You would offer them a higher interest rate in order for them to give you a loan. So with that in mind, Brian, is that what the US has to do in order to entice foreign bondholders in the same way, meaning then debt rates would tend to be held high?   Brien Lundin (00:27:01) -  Very interesting point there, Keith, because getting back what I was saying, how these PhD economists are pulling all the levers on the economy, the lever they're about to pull is to start lowering rates again, because they recognize these debt loads, they recognize the possibility of a recession, and that if there is a recession and tax receipts fall, then the debt load is going to accelerate even further.   Brien Lundin (00:27:26) -  So they feel that policy right now is very restrictive. And they're going to start lowering rates at some point. They have to. But the debt loads being what they are, however you have on the other hand, the bondholders are, which you would hope would be the buyers of the Treasury securities, and they will look and see the potential economic slowdowns. They had the potential for higher inflation and start demanding higher returns on their yields. So there is a tension there. We saw that develop last October, November timeframe and a few months ago when we saw Treasury yields rise at the same time that the dollar index rose versus other currencies and gold was rising, which was a weird kind of strange bedfellows there that typically gold does not rise when interest rates are rising and the dollar is strengthening. But they were all going up together, and that happened a bit last fall as well. To my mind, that is a reflection of safe haven buying. You know, typically we think Treasury yields fall when they're safe haven buying because everybody's going into treasuries.   Brien Lundin (00:28:36) -  To me that was reflective of safe haven buying because the markets were really concerned about the fiscal future for the US and other developed countries. So they were going to the safety of the dollar, the safety of gold and demanding higher yields on treasuries. That would be more commensurate with the kind of inflation rate that they saw ahead. But it's been a weird mix of buying a weird mix of economic developments, and I think it all argues toward big money getting more and more into gold because of the uncertainty that lies ahead, and the really the extraordinary nature of the current economic situation to the world we find ourselves in now.   Keith Weinhold (00:29:21) -  I did not realize that there is less sensitivity to higher gold prices until I just learned that from you a few minutes ago. So that's really interesting about potential momentum in the future price of gold. And we talk about the future price of gold. We think of that through a supply and demand lens, much like we think about what's moving real estate prices today. Have we hit peak gold, meaning that there's less and less of it to pull out of the ground?   Brien Lundin (00:29:49) -  All of the trends in that respect actually favor gold and that we have reached peak gold production as around 32,300 tonnes a year.   Brien Lundin (00:30:00) -  Interestingly, a third of that level is being purchased now by China between the people's Bank of China and Chinese citizens. So a good bit of that is taken off. But I'm not a big proponent for the validity or the impact of supply and demand for gold, because it is monetary demand that really drives the price of gold. It has no utility, virtually no utility and industry. It is purely a monetary metal. So when people are concerned about the future purchasing power of the currency, they buy gold and they drive the price up, and that buying on the margin really sets the price of gold. And I think we're about to enter one of those periods where gold really plays catch up for long sweeps of time. You'll see the gold price doesn't do much until something happens. Things get bad to a certain degree where people really start to worry about their purchasing power, and then gold makes a huge catch up move. Really, in the early stages of that kind of a catch up ketchup move, I believe.   Brien Lundin (00:31:06) -  I think we're entering a period that would be akin to the 1970s and the 2000, where the price of gold has historically gone up anywhere between five and a half and eight and a half times over during these kinds of secular bull markets. And I think we're in one of those periods right now.   Keith Weinhold (00:31:25) -  Five and a half to eight x.   Brien Lundin (00:31:27) -  Yeah. If you look at the fact that there's only been three bull markets in gold since 1971, when it actually became, you know, an investable asset or commodity and not money. So 1970 to 75 was a bull market of 76 to 1980 with a bull market. And really, 2000 to 2011 was another bull market run. And each of those instances, each of those three bull markets, gold went up from 25.6 to 8.2 times from the lows. And this market we're in now, the low is about $1,040. So if the price of gold goes up trading 5.6 and 8.2 times, you're talking about 6 to $8000 gold price at the end of this cycle, wherever and whenever that takes us.   Brien Lundin (00:32:17) -  And of course, you know, we're up around 2300 and change right now. So that's a good move ahead. Lots of potential. And it's not just where the price of gold goes, but all the associated assets worth it, like mining stocks and the like are going to do, I think, very well over the next few years.   Keith Weinhold (00:32:36) -  Yeah. People know gold is the classic inflation hedge. But to your point, it has a lot to do with catching a wave. If you think the real long term diminished purchasing power of the dollar is 3 or 4% over time. Well, you don't see gold go up gradually at 3 or 4% per year for several years. You tend to see it do little or nothing, and then it has this big catch up phase, like those periods of time that you talked about. When we talk about physically holding on to gold, you know, it's cool. It's one of those type of investments where if you do hold it yourself, there's no login or password to access your goal that is physical, intangible.   Keith Weinhold (00:33:10) -  And you know, Brad, one thing that a lot of gold people often talk about is a positive attribute to holding gold is that it has zero counterparty risk when it's yours. No one can take it from you. But does it really have no counterparty risk? Because I think about if a person wants to hold physical gold, well, if they outsource it to a third party vault or a bank safe deposit box, then the counterparty risk is there. But if they hold it onto themselves and store it in their own home, which I don't know if that's a good idea, but if they choose to do so, well then the counterparty risk is the thief. So I think gold is a great way to store wealth, but is there really zero counterparty risk associated with gold?   Brien Lundin (00:33:48) -  Well, from that standpoint, there's never a zero risk. There's never a zero risk. When you step out of your door in the morning, either, you know, there's always some risk. You can mitigate the risk. And it reminds me of of what I tell people when they're really new to the sector is there are two reasons to buy gold.   Brien Lundin (00:34:04) -  One is as insurance and one is as an investment. And insurance is what you need to worry about right away because you're insuring against something you know is going to happen. If you feel like 3 to 5 years, the dollar's purchasing power, it's going to be much less than it is today. I think we can all agree in most likely is then by buying gold today, you lock in today's value of the dollar because gold will make that up, and perhaps even more so, it will protect you against that depreciation. So you can ensure your wealth by holding some physical metals. And I think that's the most important thing you can do, at least initially, is get silver and gold. Now, as far as storing it, a lot of people can store enough gold in their house to gain a good bit of insurance against whatever their wealth is. And by that, you know you will have to invest in a safe. Don't tell anybody about where it is and a good alarm system. And if you haven't and a location where you have a good police force, then you're talking about 20 minutes that somebody's going to get in your home before the police come and knocking, and hopefully they can't find the safe, much less get into it in that amount of time so you can do it in your house to some degree.   Brien Lundin (00:35:16) -  You can store it elsewhere, but there are important considerations there. They're very respected storage facilities and the like. You don't want to store it in a bank because one of the things you're insuring against is a bank holiday, thanks to like you to store it there either, but you can find respected institutions to store it. I recommend people don't put all the eggs in one basket and store it with a number of institutions, or as many as they can practically do. But yeah, it is important to own the metals, you know. Otherwise you're going to lose from here. On the day that you decide not to buy gold and silver to protect your wealth from that day on, you're accepting a rate of purchasing power depreciation that we know is considerably more than what the government says it is, and is historically high to begin with.   Keith Weinhold (00:36:09) -  I generally think it's a good idea to own at least a little gold if you have trepidation about buying gold. Think of it this way in a way you're not buying gold, You're transferring some of your prosperity over into gold, which has had lasting value for millennia, across cultures and across generations.   Keith Weinhold (00:36:28) -  And for some reason, I think a lot of people my age and younger that they don't own any gold. I would imagine that 90% plus of people, I think the statistics are out there. 97% of Americans don't own any gold. And maybe you feel like you don't understand gold and you don't want to own what you don't understand. But you could purchase this a 10th of an ounce of gold for under $300. And you know, by buying just a little bit, you begin to get a vested interest in this stuff. So with that in mind, Brian, how much do you think one should allocate and in what form should they make their purchase?   Brien Lundin (00:37:02) -  It's interesting. There have been studies for many years showing that the highest risk adjusted return you can get in a diversified portfolio with about 5% of your wealth, or your investing portfolio allocated to go to heaven. Those same studies done that are indicating more like 10% or more. It's to the point that you sleep well at night, whatever makes you comfortable.   Brien Lundin (00:37:27) -  But you know all of those studies back test it and they look back and see how gold and a portfolio meshes with the six, the classic 6040 mix of stocks and bonds etc.. But what we've seen over the last 12, 14 years is that post the 2008 great financial crisis is that all of these asset classes have become more and more positively correlated because everything's dependent on the Federal Reserve and monetary policy. So all of the correlations have started to trend toward one, where they all rise and fall together in unison. Because everything, again, is just depends on monetary policy and the flow of liquidity from the Federal Reserve and other central banks. So that fact alone argues for even a greater holding in gold, because all of that portends greater and greater inflation, greater monetary accommodation, and the kind of thing that gold insures against. So the way to look at gold as insurance is not quite like home insurance. You know, you buy home insurance, you pay the premium every year in case your house catches on fire.   Brien Lundin (00:38:38) -  But you really don't expect your house to catch on fire. With gold. You're buying insurance. You're paying the premium, perhaps just once, and you're insuring against something that you know is going to happen, that the purchasing power of your dollars are going to depreciate. So if you have a significant cash balance in accounts, you might as well put it into precious metals and lock in the current rate before it gets the purchasing power of the dollar depreciates even further.   Keith Weinhold (00:39:06) -  That is a good point with gold as money insurance from the standpoint that with your homeowner's insurance and your landlord's insurance policy, you need to pay a premium annually. You potentially only need to pay that once upfront when you purchase your gold, and there's typically a spot price differential to overcome. Well, Brian, you are the host of America's longest running investment conference, which is founded on championing American's right to own gold. The New Orleans Investment Conference. It really feels like there is a touch of prestige when you're there. I can speak to that personally because I've attended it at least three times in the past.   Keith Weinhold (00:39:47) -  It's coming up in November. I hope to attend again this year. You've got some illustrious speakers there. Tell us about this year's New Orleans Investment Conference.   Brien Lundin (00:39:58) -  Yeah, it is our 50th anniversary. You know, I think it's the oldest investment conference in the world today and longest running. And we do have that legacy, that prestige of being somewhat gold oriented. We're actually covering a good bit more real estate lately, but we really cover a lot of the macro picture macroeconomics. We have some of the leading thinkers come to our vet every year and a great audience as well. Very highly qualified, very successful investors. This year is up 50th. So we have another wonderful roster of speakers. We have Jim Grant coming, George Gammon, James Lavish, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Britt Johnson, Abby Gilbert, Adam Taggart, the list goes on and on. Rick Rule, Peter Boockvar, dozens and dozens of top minds. And, you know, we kind of alluded to it in this talk, but these are really strange and interesting and dangerous, extraordinary times that we're living through right now.   Brien Lundin (00:41:02) -  And it is amazing to me, having been in the business for 9 to 40 years now, seeing these kinds of periods come and go. And it seems that when they do happen, we get this kind of underground media that arises, and people who really bring in losses come to the fore to comment on what's going on and provide really valuable insights. And after all the years I've been in this business, I know who really contributes value, who the best thinkers are, and I'm getting them all to come to New Orleans. As I have to say, I'm a big fan of all of our speakers. I think they are absolutely extraordinary, and we are so confident that you will find our event to be worth many times the cost of attending, that we have a money back guarantee. If you don't think it does, if you don't think it's worth many times what you paid for, we'll give you registration feedback. So it's very few events that can offer a guarantee like that. And I think you would agree with me that you have to be there to really experience it.   Brien Lundin (00:42:07) -  And it really is just an extraordinary experience.   Keith Weinhold (00:42:11) -  Yeah, I can't imagine anyone not getting a multiple on their investment with attending the conference. You know, one thing that you do really well there at the conference, Brian, besides just listening to all those speakers that you just mentioned, you also have panel format discussions where sometimes you can learn more when you're listening to a conversation than you can when you're listening to a presentation. You have both choices there. Then if you prefer you want to break, you can go across the hallway to where the exhibit hall is and do some learning and meeting people over there. And then you also have these breakout sessions where you go upstairs into small rooms and learn from presenters in just the niche that you think most interests you or that you want to learn more about. So there's really good variety there.   Brien Lundin (00:42:54) -  Yeah, it's kind of a time tested format. It's different than most conferences you'll find out there, but it's worked well for us for 49 years, and our attendees seem to appreciate the unique format that we have and the ability to learn.   Brien Lundin (00:43:09) -  And it really is information almost overload. There's so much of value from these speakers. If you are intellectually curious, if you are a serious investor, if you enjoy an intellectually stimulating environment in a destination location, this is really the place for you. And you know, I can go on over and over again for as long as we have time for and more to say talking about it. But the best advertising we do are people who word of mouth from people who have come. And I would encourage anyone who is considering coming to the New Orleans Investment Conference. Number one, this is our 50th anniversary. It's going to be a very special year. But number two, find somebody who's been before. Talk to them about it. And I think you'll get excited about attending this year.   Keith Weinhold (00:43:56) -  Each year it is at an excellent location. It's at the New Orleans, Riverside Hilton and Bryan Terrace, those November dates for the event and then how one can attend.   Brien Lundin (00:44:07) -  Yeah, it's November 20th to 23rd this year, so it's the week before us Thanksgiving week.   Brien Lundin (00:44:14) -  So it's it doesn't interfere with that holiday. It's kind of a good little slot there. And people can learn more by going to one New Orleans conference.com. Very simply New Orleans conference.com.   Keith Weinhold (00:44:29) -  All right. It's been great catching up on the state of the economy, real estate inflation, interest rates, gold. And thank you so much for putting on this terrific conference for the benefit of every interested investor. It's been great having you back on the show.   Brien Lundin (00:44:43) -  Wonderful to talk to you again, Keith, as always.   Keith Weinhold (00:44:52) -  Oh, yeah. Bright, inarticulate thoughts from Brian, as always, when he and I discussed those related factors of inflation and interest rates. I mean, this is such a germane discussion because, like he brought up, there seems to be this increasing propensity for all asset classes to rise or fall together. Like nearly every asset class is near an all time high right now. I'll need to research the incidence of this some more so that it's not just anecdotal, but the Fed's decisions. They seem to increasingly float up or knock down just about every investment class almost simultaneously.   Keith Weinhold (00:45:35) -  Real estate stocks, gold, crypto commodities, collectible toys, even nearly everything. And when you're a real estate investor, you are already investing in commodities and metals, and you have direct ownership of those. Now, not so much precious metals in your real estate, but we're talking about items that are built into it, like aluminum and steel and copper. They probably exist in your properties. Well, their prices go into the replacement cost of your property, and they are a reflection of your real estate portfolio's overall value, too. Coming up here on future episodes of the show, it will be the inaugural appearance of the King of Commercial Real Estate here on the show. Also, there seems to be still a mainstream aversion to all debt types, and I suppose it finds me in the position of being real estate's debt proselytizing. Well, coming up on the show, I am going to ask and answer the question for you is any debt worth paying off? Which debts are good to pay down? Which stitch should be paid off, and which debt types do you want to keep, and which debt types do you actually want to get more of? What are the exact distinctions so that you know right where to draw that line on all the debt types that you hold on to.   Keith Weinhold (00:47:00) -  So coming up here on the show, is any debt worth paying off? And I am pleased to tell you that if you would like to meet in person, yes, you're going to have a chance to do that at the special 50th anniversary of the New Orleans Investment Conference. Now, I'm not sure that meeting me in person really brings any benefit to you or the event, but yes, I am attending in person in New Orleans. I haven't been there since 2021 and I want to return. Brian London really knows how to put on an event. There is a lot of macroeconomic talk there and you will hear more about both that and gold than you will about real estate, although I expect plenty of real estate investing information there as usual. Again, it's November 20th to 23rd, four plus months away. And the registration link that you can use for this is in today's show notes. I will also get it into the next newsletter for you. Big thanks to the wise and wonderful Brien Lundin today. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold.   Keith Weinhold (00:48:03) -  Don't quit your daydream.   Speaker 5 (00:48:09) -  Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold (00:48:37) -  The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get Rich education.com.

Yes, Federal Reserve Jerome Powell is hoping he can cut rates soon. But it's less because he's proud he's won the inflation battle. It's more because he's afraid the Lag Effect from his "higher for longer" interest rates are starting to visibly damage the economy. Portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz stands in for Lance Roberts this week to talk about the Fed's unfolding scramble to get to rate cuts before the wheels come off. We're already seeing concerning signs: 1.5% (or less) GDP growth for 2024 so far, rising unemployment, runaway deficits and struggling consumers. Can the Fed ride to the rescue before the wheels come off? Michael and I discuss that, as well as everything that mattered to markets, in this week's Weekly Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #inflation #bonds #interestrates --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

There is a massive deviation between stock valuations and earnings growth: growth in the former is far outpacing the latter. This is unsustainable warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts. And unless economic growth suddenly surges (and no catalyst for that is on the radar), then asset prices will need to come down in order to bring the ratio back into balance. And with GDP growth coming in at1.4% in Q1 and currently at 1.7% (and slowing) here in Q2, asset price reduction indeed seems like the more probable outcome. In this video, Lance and I discuss this, as well as market technicals, whether the latest inflation & jobs data increase the odds for a near-term rate cut by the Fed, the importance of sentiment, the latest market technicals and Lance's recent trades. If you like the new studio background, it was created by Inspired Spaces Designs. They do great work and can be contacted through their website https://inspiredspacesdesign.com/ & their Instagram https://www.instagram.com/inspiredspacesinc/ WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #earnings #stockmarket #inflation --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

The saga of the Roberts' Rental house concludes, at the cost of a coffee maker and other electrical appliances. How much will it cost to feed your hoard on July 4th? Market Commentary: light volume expected for the remainder of the holiday-shortened week. Adam Taggart, Jon Huntsman analysis: Symptoms vs reality. The importance of doing your own due diligence and sticking to an investing discipline. Lance and Danny discuss concentration risk and the Enron debacle; Fintech's false promises to investors. Why individuals cannot invest like Warren Buffett & Berkshire Hathaway: Buffett's investment horizon is 100-years. SEG-1: Feeding on the Fourth for $71 - Market Commentary SEG-2: The Hunt Brothers' Silver Saga & Copper Commodities Today SEG-3: The Importance of Investing Discipline SEG-4: Investing Like Warren Buffett? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpgRKuHEiBs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Earnings Bar Lowered As Q2 Reports Begin" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/earnings-bar-lowered-as-q2-reports-begin/ "The Confidence Dichotomy" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Movers Before the 4th" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4lTPrUdWRY&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "How to Beat Earnings Estimates" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bG6OzGjibtM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=6s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #WarrenBuffett #BerkshireHathaway #!00YearStrategy #Investment #HoldingPeriod #LongTermPlanning #Legacy #FinancialStrategy #HewlettPackard #Longevity #BusinessPhilosophy #Visionary #SustainableGrowth #CorporateContinuity #FutureProofing #DurableInvestments #AssetManagement #CompanyLifespan #WealthPreservation #EarningsGrowth #FinancialCrisis #LoweredEarningsBar #CompanyPerformance #Expectations #StrongEarnings #QuarterResults #FinancialAnalysis #EarningsEstimates #Inflation #Deflation #FinancialAdvice #FinancialAdvisorValue #PortfolioManager #RentalProperty #HomeOwnership #Markets #Money #Investing

The saga of the Roberts' Rental house concludes, at the cost of a coffee maker and other electrical appliances. How much will it cost to feed your hoard on July 4th? Market Commentary: light volume expected for the remainder of the holiday-shortened week. Adam Taggart, Jon Huntsman analysis: Symptoms vs reality. The importance of doing your own due diligence and sticking to an investing discipline. Lance and Danny discuss concentration risk and the Enron debacle; Fintech's false promises to investors. Why individuals cannot invest like Warren Buffett & Berkshire Hathaway: Buffett's investment horizon is 100-years.  SEG-1: Feeding on the Fourth for $71 - Market Commentary SEG-2: The Hunt Brothers' Silver Saga & Copper Commodities Today SEG-3: The Importance of Investing Discipline SEG-4: Investing Like Warren Buffett? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpgRKuHEiBs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Earnings Bar Lowered As Q2 Reports Begin" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/earnings-bar-lowered-as-q2-reports-begin/ "The Confidence Dichotomy" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Movers Before the 4th" is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4lTPrUdWRY&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "How to Beat Earnings Estimates" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bG6OzGjibtM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=6s ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #WarrenBuffett #BerkshireHathaway #!00YearStrategy #Investment #HoldingPeriod #LongTermPlanning #Legacy #FinancialStrategy #HewlettPackard #Longevity #BusinessPhilosophy #Visionary #SustainableGrowth #CorporateContinuity #FutureProofing #DurableInvestments #AssetManagement #CompanyLifespan #WealthPreservation #EarningsGrowth #FinancialCrisis #LoweredEarningsBar #CompanyPerformance #Expectations #StrongEarnings #QuarterResults #FinancialAnalysis #EarningsEstimates #Inflation #Deflation #FinancialAdvice #FinancialAdvisorValue #PortfolioManager #RentalProperty #HomeOwnership #Markets #Money #Investing

Today's stock market is like an iceberg, says portfolio manager Lance Roberts. We can see the surface, which looks fine. The Magnificent 7 stocks -- really now the Mag 5 -- are collectively growing market cap and profits, propping up the overall index. But if you look below the surface, at the bottom 90% of the iceberg, "things look terrible" warns Lance. We discuss why, as well any impact this week's presidential debate is likely to have on markets, For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #presidentialdebate #magnificent7 #investing --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

With stocks still firmly in overbought territory and the uncertainty of the US presidential election nearing, portfolio manager Lance Roberts warns "We're due for a correction" He expects a 5-10% pullback in the near term. And perhaps a slightly larger drop leading up to November as Wall Street de-risks ahead of voting. Lance and Adam review the latest chart technicals, whether Japan's Norinchukin Bank and it's announced liquidation of its US Treasury portfolio poses a risk to bond market, the dangers of private investing, and the worrying extent to just how far the S&P 500 is trading above historical valuation averages. For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #stockmarketcorrection #Norinchukin #marketcorrection --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Stocks hit new all-time highs this week and despite being very overbought, momentum is still higher. What could end this rally is the upcoming earnings season, cautions portfolio manager Lance Roberts. Profit growth estimates are EXTREMELY optimistic right now. If they disappoint, a reversal could be fast & furious. Lance and I talk about that, the recent Fed guidance, the weak jobs market, and do a detailed walk-though of Lance's new & improved SimpleVisor service in this week's update. SIGN UP FOR SIMPLEVISOR OR SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #unemployment #federalreserve #investing --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Stocks remain overbought at current levels and volatility remains low. Portfolio manager Lance Roberts expects markets to tread sideways until next week's CPI data and latest Fed guidance are in. If they show the economy is indeed slowing down faster than expected and/or inflation is moderating, stocks will likely pop as rate cut hopes will be put back on the table. But if not, will markets drop? As Lance notes, valuations and earnings forecasts are now at elevated extremes, and any diminishment to the current optimism could start giving investors the jitters. We discuss these odds, as well as the weakening labor market outlook, the GameStop circus show, concerns about AI demand, and Lance's latest trades in this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #gamestop #employment #inflation --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

The S&P 500 has recently had a near-term sell signal triggered, during a week where many Tech stocks -- including Nvidia -- sold off harder than the general markets. This shouldn't be a cause for major concern. But it explains why the market is down from it all-time high 10 days ago, and may likely have farther to fall until the overbought conditions are fully worked off. The latest slowing CPE inflation data gave Wall Street a little more hope on Friday that rate cuts may not be pushed as far into the future as has been currently feared. And this gave a boost to bonds, brining the US 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.5%. Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss all this plus his firms latest trades in this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #nvidia #nvda #inflation

It's been a week to remember for stocks... After the S&P, the Dow and the NASDAQ each hitting all-time highs earlier this week, Nvidia blew past expectations on both revenue and earnings, eclipsing $2.5 trillion in market value. The bulls are feeling large & in charge as a result, though stocks may take breather soon -- as signaled by Thursday's bloodbath in the markets despite Nvidia's big beat. Portfolio manager Lance Roberts sees stocks as extended and overbought in the near term, and expects a "cooling off" period to happen soon. We discuss the reasons why, as well as recession risk, the latest employment data, technical indicators, and our advice to job seekers in this Weekly Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #nvidia #jobs #stockmarket

Three week's ago, the S&P had fallen below 5,000 and Wall Street was worried the party in stocks might be over. Nope. Stocks rebounded and, as of today, the S&P, Dow, and (almost) NASDAQ sit at all-time highs. Technically, it looks like the bull trend is set to continue says portfolio manager Lance Roberts, especially with $1 trillion of announced buybacks set to flow into markets through the rest of the year. Though stocks have moved so far so fast that a short-term pullback is quite likely. Lance and I discuss what's driving the current stock surge, the signs he's monitoring to sense when it may be ending, Warren Buffett's latest warning to investors, and Lance's firm's latest trades. For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #investing #bullmarket #stockbuybacks

The Dow just had its best week of 2024. And the S&P remains on a tear higher from its mid-April lows. As a result, looking at short-term conditions, stocks have quickly returned to overbought conditions, says portfolio manager Lance Roberts. It's likely they'll have a cooling off period over the coming week or two. Expect a retest of the 50 daily moving average. If that holds, that's a very bullish sign that new all-time highs may not be that far away. Lance and I walk through the charts, as well as discuss the late-breaking consumer sentiment and jobs data, the wisdom of Freddie Mac's proposal to enter the home equity market, and, of course, his firm's latest trades. For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #investing #stocks #jobsreport

Stock prices are compressing in a wedge pattern suggesting the market is going to make a breakout soon. But in which direction? We'll soon know for sure, but portfolio manager Lance Roberts' models triggered a buy signal today. So he thinks the odds favor the bulls. Why discuss why in today's Market Recap, as well react to this week's Fed guidance, the new payroll data, the impact massive buyback programs from companies like Google and Apple are having on the markets, and the most common ways regular investors sabotage their success. Lance also shares the latest trades his firm made this week. For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #federalreserve #inflation #jobs

Yesterday, May 1 2024, the Federal Reserve issued its latest policy statement, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed held its policy interest rate steady at 5.25%, as expected. Somewhat surprising to Wall Street was the Fed's announcement that it will reduce the scope of its Quantitative Tightening program starting in June. US Treasury roll-off will be reduced to $25 billion per month, down from the current $60 billion per month. Above and beyond that, Jerome Powell admitted that inflation is proving more stubborn to tame than the Fed hoped at the start of the year, and that getting it down sustainably to the Fed's 2% target will "take longer than previously expected". This essentially is admitting that interest rates will stay hike for EVEN longer. In this video, Fed-watcher Axel Merk of Merk Investments joins Thoughtful Money host Adam Taggart to provide an immediate reaction to the Fed's guidance and take live Q&A from the viewing audience. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #interestrates #inflation #federalreserve