The Real Investment Show Podcast

What makes capitalism the most successful wealth-building system in history?  Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explore how economic freedom, private ownership, and innovation incentives have lifted billions out of poverty and created unmatched prosperity. Why do societies that embrace free markets and entrepreneurship tend to enjoy higher standards of living, longer lifespans, and greater personal happiness? Lance & Michael examine the misconceptions surrounding capitalism—why critics often overlook the power of voluntary exchange and how wealth creation benefits everyone over time. 0:19 - Earnings Season is Underway w 75% Beat Rates 4:49 - Markets Maintain Bullish Trend w Lackluster Conviction 8:23 - The Itch to Twitch w Royalty-free Music 10:04 - The Fed Moves Forward - Net Impact to Bond Market 13:58 - There is No More Liquidity - Effects in Crypto Realm 17:03 - The Danger of Buying Crypto on Margin 19:57 - Leverage Works Worse in Reverse 24:04 - When the Markets Break 29:59 - Capitalism vs Socialism - the path to prosperity 31:49 - Quantifying Capitalism - The Economic Freedom Index 35:22 - Capitalism is Not an Equalization System 38:23 - The Global Decline of Economic Freedom 39:32 - Does Wealth Buy Happiness? 40:58 - Defining the "American Dream" 43:16 - Why Businesses Fail 44:51 - The Savanna Bananas 46:57 - Capitalism Is Not Fair

After a volatile session, markets managed to reclaim the 20-day moving average — but barely. Weak volume and narrow participation suggest the move lacked conviction. While futures are pointing higher this morning, recent trading patterns have shown early gains often fade quickly. The good news: the market has worked off much of its overbought condition. The bad news: momentum remains weak, and we're still on a MACD sell signal. Until that reverses, risk stays elevated. In today's pre-market update, Lance Roberts breaks down:

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell just hinted that the Fed may soon pause its balance-sheet runoff — a potential shift that could reshape market liquidity and investor sentiment. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down: * Why the Fed may pause QT — and what it signals about financial conditions. * How ending balance-sheet runoff affects liquidity, yields, and asset prices. * What history tells us about QT pauses and subsequent market rallies. * Why the Fed's portfolio composition (Treasuries vs. MBS) still matters for inflation and housing. * Portfolio tactics if the liquidity tide begins to turn. 0:19 - Markets' Rally on Powell QT Comments 4:16 - Speculation Continues on Wall St 8:40 - Childhood Bedtimes & Digital Devices 14:36 Is Quantitative Tightening About to End? 16:55 - What is the Result of Easing QT? 19:37 - Where's the Risk: Private Credit/Equity 21:12 - The Fed's Moral Hazard & History of Bailouts 26:01 - How Would a Failure of FNMA Loans Affect the Economy? 28:34 - What Led to the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis 32:13 - The Bigger Risk of Too Much Money Chasing Too Few Deals 35:45 - The Last Stages of Asset Development 40:11 - IRS Rules Changes for Roths 45:12 - Comming Attractions   Whether the Fed is stabilizing the system or setting up the next round of excess — it's a key inflection point investors can't ignore.

Are annuities the safe retirement solution they're sold as — or a financial trap in disguise? Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn unpack the good, the bad, and the ugly sides of annuities.  10:03 - Kitchen Sets & Intramural Flag Football 14:52 - Annuities - Good, Bad, & Ugly 18:08 - What is an Annuity? 20:16 - Different Flavors of Annuities 22:07 - The Ugly Truth About Early Surrender Fees 27:29 - Why Might You Need an Annuity? 31:20 - Three Reasons You'd Need an Annuity 34:36 - Annuities Should Be Planned, not Sold 38:14 - Why Buy an Annuity Instead of Investing in the Market? 41:00 - One More Reason... 43:25 - Are There Inflation-adjusted Annuities? 47:05 - Are Annuities Divorce-proof? 48:59 - Lance's Marriage Advice 49:52 - Tax Deferral Options 51:59 - More Marriage Advice - His & Her Money   Whether you're considering a fixed, variable, or indexed annuity, this episode will help you separate sales pitch from sound strategy — so you can decide if annuities deserve a place in your portfolio.

Markets are at a turning point after Friday's dip to the 50-day moving average and Monday's rebound. But with futures pointing lower, investors are asking: will this rally hold—or fold? In today's pre-market briefing:

Are markets completely disconnected from economic reality? In this exclusive conversation, Lance Roberts of RIA Advisors sits down with Daniel LaCalle, Chief Economist at Tressis and author of Freedom or Equality, to examine the illusion of wealth, sovereign-debt bubbles, and why the next global crisis may already be forming beneath the surface.

How do you make every dollar work harder for you?  Richard Rosso breaks down the Hierarchy of Smart Savings Strategies — a smart, structured approach to prioritize where to save and invest for maximum growth and minimum taxes. This simple yet powerful framework helps you build wealth efficiently, protect against taxes, and optimize your financial future. 0:19 - Foundational Basis & Economic Conundrum 8:05 - Prioritizing Saving Money - Pay Yourself First 12:58 - How to Create a Tax Management Wave 15:50 - The Triple Tax Benefits of HSA's 18:39 - After-tax Contributions to 401k 21:04 - Investing & Spending 23:55 - Life Insurance applications

A recession usually means falling inflation and lower bond yields — good news for bond investors. But what if this time is different? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down how the next recession could flip the bond trade from bullish to bearish — and why government policy and fiscal stimulus may once again distort the relationship between inflation, yields, and bond prices. 0:19 - US Dollar Impact on Multi-national Companies 3:32 - Expectations for Market Reversal 9:45 - The AI Chase & Circular Money Flow 13:17 - Investments are Based on Hopeful Future Demand  16:28 - The Question of The How & The When 19:12 - The Nvidia - AMD - OpenAI Conundrum 20:07 - Natural Gas is the Only Answer for next 5-years 22:02 - Markets Are Chasing Whatever Goes Up 24:24 - The Lesson for Diversifying 26:15 - Do Bonds Protect Investors in the Next Recession? 32:18 - Preview of Daniel LaCalle Interview 35:38 - Gold is Fueling Dollar Debasement 39:43 - All Asset Classes will Reverse Eventually 43:33 - Is This Time Different? 50:06 - Coming Attractions

Markets continue to push higher as optimism remains strong, fueled by massive corporate share buybacks and record retail inflows. Since April, liquidity has been the lifeblood of this rally — but beneath the surface, the setup is increasingly fragile. The MACD has been flat for weeks, volatility remains near historic lows, and options positioning shows a large negative delta. That combination can unwind quickly if the 20-DMA gives way. A simple 5% correction could feel twice as painful after months of calm. In today's pre-market video, we discuss: Why money flows and buybacks are propping up markets The warning signs of fragility beneath the surface What a 20-DMA break could mean for risk assets Simple portfolio tactics to manage exposure before volatility returns

Join Lance Roberts for a live open Q&A on markets, money, and investing. We'll cover what's on your mind—from market melt-ups and Fed policy to portfolio positioning and economic risks. No scripts, no fluff—just real talk and real answers about what's moving markets and shaping investor behavior. 0:19 - Markets are Absorbing Money 4:14 - Profit Taking in Bitcoin 9:15 - YouTube Poll - The #1 Thing on Your Mind About Markets 10:09 - How Do You Invest Right Now?  12:23 - Liquidity is King 18:05 - You WILL Mind a 5% Down Market 20:39 - #1 Concern - Liquidity in Markets 27:37 - The Problem w Markets is Narratives 29:34 - Economic Data Not Dramatically Changing 33:06 - The AI Story, Tesla Robots, & Productivity 35:48 - Employees Are Not Fun 39:32 - Coming Attractions - Daniel LaCalle Interview

Markets were slightly lower on Tuesday, but small caps and Bitcoin saw sharper declines as investors took profits. After notching new highs, Bitcoin is now forming a potential series of tops — and what happens next could determine whether this rally continues or a correction unfolds. At the same time, the U.S. Dollar is quietly breaking out of its consolidation range to the upside. A stronger Dollar typically pressures risk assets, from emerging markets to commodities and crypto. The question now: Is this just a one-day pullback—or the start of a broader shift? In this pre-market update, Lance Roberts breaks down: Why Bitcoin's pattern may be signaling a near-term turning point. How the Dollar's breakout could reshape global asset performance. What the small-cap selloff says about investor sentiment and liquidity.

In your 30s, 40s, or 50s, life gets busy—and money decisions get complicated. Many professionals fall into the same midlife financial traps that quietly erode their future wealth. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn unpack seven common midlife money mistakes that can derail your long-term goals—from lifestyle creep and poor diversification to credit card debt and get-rich-quick schemes. Learn how to stay focused, protect your growing assets, and build financial independence while managing the real pressures of midlife. 0:19 - Taco Tuesday & Gov't. Shutdown Day-7 4:23 - Is the Rising Trend Line About to End? 10:53 -Mid-life Crises & Dealing w Debt 17:31 - Christina's Amazon Budget & Nutcracker Fetish  19:40 - Mission Creep & Budget Leakage 24:20 - The Danger of Using Credit Cards for Points 29:09 - Hard Money Lending & Usury 32:51 - Trade Your Way to Wealth & Other Get-rich-quick schemes 36:06 - Inflation's Effects on Purchasing Power 37:58 - Markets Can Make You Appear Smarter than You Are 39:06 - Get Debt Free 41:17 - Why You Should Never, Ever, Never, Ever Borrow from Your 401k 47:15 - The Truth About Bankruptcy 49:09 - Coming Attractions

Markets hit new all-time highs Monday, closing up roughly 40 basis points, and futures point higher again this morning. But beneath the surface, extreme deviations above the 200-day moving average are forming—a setup that rarely lasts. In this short video, Lance Roberts explains why markets stretched this far above long-term averages eventually correct, how those drawdowns affect investors both financially and psychologically, and why low-quality, no-income stocks are suddenly leading the rally.

Investors often believe that when markets “recover,” their portfolios do too — but that's a dangerous illusion. In this episode, Lance Roberts breaks down why percentage losses and gains are not symmetrical, and how a 50% loss requires a 100% gain just to break even. We'll discuss why bear market math destroys long-term returns, how emotional investors get trapped in the “illusion of recovery,” and why managing risk during drawdowns matters more than chasing every rally. 0:19 - The First Full Trading Week of October - Action 4:11 - Markets - Overbought & Overconfident? 9:27 - Where is the Promised Recession? 12:06 - What is Supporting the Market?  15:53 - The Overall Liquidity Base is Still Flush 19:19 - Annual vs Intra-year Returns Comparison 22:18 - Understanding Losses in Bear Markets - not symmetrical 27:02 - The Math of Loss 29:32 - The Importance of Understanding the Difference Between Points & Percentages 33:49 - Why Markets Do Not Compound 34:19 - The Function of Time on Investments 39:26 - Six Strategies That Work When Markets Don't 46:48 - Preview: Trading Guide Rules from Master Investors

Markets flirted with all-time highs again on Friday, but the speculative fever is spreading fast. From overbought gold and rising volatility to widening gaps between prices and moving averages, signs of investor overconfidence are everywhere. In this pre-market update, Lance Roberts breaks down: Why speculation is building across stocks, gold, and global markets The growing disconnect between market prices and fundamentals What rising VIX volatility and overbought gold could signal How momentum and sentiment extremes can lead to sharp corrections

Protecting your family starts with the right financial basics. In this video, we break down the must-have estate planning tools, insurance coverage, and financial safeguards every household needs. From wills and trusts to life insurance, disability coverage, and guardianship designations, we'll cover how to ensure your loved ones are secure no matter what happens. We'll also dive into digital assets, medical directives, and children's financial planning — the often-overlooked steps that protect families from unnecessary risks. ✅ Learn the financial documents every family should have ✅ Avoid common mistakes that leave families unprotected ✅ Build peace of mind with a plan that covers all bases 0:20 - Green on the Screen on Day-3 of Government Shutdown 4:05 - Risk Management thru Estate Planning 7:28 - Basic Estate Planning Documents You Need to Have 9:48 - Powers of Attorney 18:19 The Document Repository 21:03 - Post-mortem Plans - Trusts vs Wills 28:23 - Designating Beneficiaries 36:11 - Disability & Long Term Care Insurance Considerations 42:43 - Letters of Intent

The government shutdown has silenced the Bureau of Labor Statistics, leaving investors without the monthly jobs report. But does Wall Street really need the BLS to keep moving? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explore what happens when government labor data goes missing, how traders adapt, and what alternative indicators might offer clues about the state of the economy. Lance and Mike also examine valuation metrics in the markets, and discuss claims that interest rates are still too high. Can the "AI Effect" sustaining markets and the economy continue into 2026? 0:19 - What the Economic Surprise Index is Saying 4:29 - Markets Hit All-time High. Again. 9:30 - When P/E Ratios are Elevated 12:25 - 1999 Valuations vs Now 13:52 - Is the AI Excitement Worth It? 17:47 - The Risk of Disappointment 21:57 - Government Shutdown Ramifications 24:03 - BLS vs ADP 27:31 - What JOLTS & IRS Data is Telling Us 33:44 - Stephen Miran - Are Rates Too High? 35:38 - The Fallacy of CPI 37:37 - Immigration Impact on Economic Growth 39:00 - The Natural Rate of Interest 41:26 - The Taylor Rule Explained 45:17 - Will AI Spending Be Able to Continue into 2026? 46:58 - The Resilience of the Market

Markets reached new all-time highs Wednesday, once again bouncing off the 20-day moving average. Since April, each test of the 20-DMA has sparked fresh rallies, while volatility remains tightly compressed. With October seasonality often providing tailwinds, investors are asking: is the market set up for a strong year-end run? In today's pre-market update, we cover: Why markets keep holding the 20-DMA trendline The impact of October volatility and average returns Healthcare strength broadening gains beyond AI How a pullback could set up November's rally Why early December may bring some profit-taking Will October tailwinds carry the market higher, or is a pullback first on the horizon? Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ItZKs7kgaEU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1  ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #MarketUpdate #InvestingNews #AllTimeHighs #YearEndRally #Investing #SP500 #MarketOutlook #Finance #InvestingAdvice #Money    

The U.S. government shutdown has officially started. What does this mean for the economy, markets, and your investments? Lance Roberts covers the immediate fallout from the shutdown on federal spending, workers, and services ; how markets have historically reacted during shutdowns—and what to expect this time; the risk to GDP, delayed economic data releases, and consumer confidence. This shutdown is more than politics—it's a real test for the economy and financial markets. Stay informed and prepared. [*NOTE: YouTube sustained severe streaming issues during this morning's live feed. This is a separate recording of the show.]

October kicks off the seasonally strong six months of the year (Oct–Mar), but investors shouldn't assume smooth sailing. Historically, October averages about a 1% gain. Yet markets just notched five straight months of S&P 500 gains during the seasonally weak window, raising the odds of a short-term pullback. In this pre-market update, Lance Roberts breaks down: Why history suggests a 4–5% correction may be due. How earnings season, corporate buybacks, and fund managers playing “catch-up” could fuel year-end support. The balance between seasonal strength and the need for markets to reset. Corrections are normal and often healthy—positioning portfolios for the rally that could close out the year.

Why do we invest? The answer goes far beyond just making money. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn, Two Dads on Money, break down the most important reasons people put their money to work in the markets. Lance and Jon also show why investing is not just for Wall Street professionals—it's for everyone. Whether you're just starting out or refining your long-term strategy, this episode will give you a clear framework for why investing is essential for financial freedom and peace of mind. 0:19 - Quarter-end Rebalancing & Potential Gove't Shutdown 6:14 - Pay Attention to the US Dollar 12:49 - Why & How We Invest: Real Estate & FOMO 18:41 - Trade Like a Pro - Not a Gambler 23:27 - Dealing w Emotions as Investors 25:28 - When Life Happens - Car Batteries & Tires 31:53 - The Major Reason We Invest: Growing Savings Faster than Inflation 37:28 - Market Compounding is a Myth 38:49 - Why Money Sitting in Cash for Opportunity 41:06 - Next Week's Show Preview

The U.S. Dollar has been weak, but a long basing pattern suggests a potential reversal. What would a Dollar rally mean for global markets, corporate profits, and investor portfolios?  Lance Roberts breaks down: * Why the Dollar matters for multi-national companies and profit margins. * How CTA short positions could fuel a sharp rally. * The impact on commodities, bonds, and global capital flows. * Why a Dollar counter-trend rally could be one of the least-expected—and most market-shaking—trades right now.

Lance Roberts examines one of the most reliable technical analysis tools investors use to measure market risk: the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI helps identify when markets are overbought, oversold, or diverging from price action. While RSI is not a perfect “buy or sell” signal, it is a powerful guardrail for risk management. History shows that overbought conditions can persist much longer than expected, but when momentum fades, corrections can arrive suddenly.

After a three-day selloff, is the market still on track for 7,000? Last week's decline tested the 20-DMA momentum line — a level that has held strong since April. Futures are pointing higher this morning, suggesting the bullish trend remains intact. But with the S&P 500 still 10% above its 200-DMA, the risk of a deeper correction can't be ignored. In today's pre-market update, we'll cover: Why the 20-DMA is a key support level How far markets could fall if the 200-DMA is tested What analysts mean by a 7,000 target for the S&P 500 December's mutual fund distributions and their impact on markets Why the bullish trendline from October 2022 is still in play Despite near-term risks, the bigger trend remains constructive. The key is managing portfolio risk carefully as we move toward year-end.

College planning season is here — and the last quarter of 2025 brings critical deadlines for students and parents. Jonathan Penn and Sarah Buenger break down what you need to know about FAFSA, scholarships, and smart funding strategies for higher education.

The Federal Reserve's latest move has investors asking: Is policy turning more accommodative or staying restrictive? Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz decode the Fed's decision, cut through the jargon, and explain what it means for markets, rates, and your money. We'll cover: What the Fed actually signaled last week The difference between accommodative and restrictive policy How markets typically react to these shifts Key risks for stocks, bonds, and the economy going forward Stay tuned as we unpack the Fed's message and put it into plain language for investors navigating uncertain markets. SEG-1a: On becoming "vintage" and Irrational Exuberance SEG-1b: Markets Appear to be Pulling Back SEG-2a: Jerome Powell's "Fairly Valued" Market Assessment SEG-2b:The Virtual Circle of the Markets & Economy SEG-2c: Quad Chart: Is the Fed too Easy or too Restrictive? SEG-2d: Markets Are Always Searching for a Narrative SEG-2e: AI Impact - A Double-edged Sword SEG-2f: What Credit Spread Compression is Telling Us SEG-2g: How We Manage in the Markets Now SEG-2h: The Fed Jargon Test Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, ww Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Accommodative Or Restrictive? Decoding The Fed's Latest Move" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/accommodative-or-restrictive-decoding-the-feds-latest-move/ -------- Watch today's video on YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDHV6eIWGlI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Pullback or Just a Pause?" is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYd7d13Iu1Y&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our Previous Show, "Strange Recession Signals: What Markets & Odd Indicators are Telling us" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKIv4RZn6sE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarketToday #PreMarketUpdate #MarketPullback #EnergyStocks #StockMarketAnalysis #DecodingTheFed #FederalReserve #FedDecision #InterestRates #MarketOutlook #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Markets are gently pulling back after 107 straight days without a 2% swing—one of the longest quiet stretches in recent history. While we're not calling for a crash, momentum and breadth are weakening as money flows decline, signaling that more sellers may be stepping in. At the same time, energy stocks are showing relative strength, breaking out even as oil prices remain flat around $64/bbl. Could energy be the bullish story while the broader market cools off? Lance Roberts break down: Why extended streaks of gains often invite short-term corrections The dichotomy between strong trends and weakening internals What rising energy stocks could mean for sector rotation Key risks to watch as markets digest their overbought positions Stay tuned for market insights before the opening bell and learn how to navigate the push-and-pull of trends vs. internals.  

Are we really on the edge of a recession—or are investors just overthinking the signals?  Beyond unemployment and consumer spending, unusual data points like men's underwear sales, cardboard box demand, and even giant Halloween skeleton purchases are popping up as quirky economic indicators. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down:  • Traditional recession signals like jobless claims, consumer spending, and market fundamentals.  • Technical market warnings investors can't ignore.  • Why strange metrics like cardboard boxes and holiday spending trends might reveal cracks in the economy.  • The psychology driving investors to go “all in” or “head for the exits.” SEG-1a: The Dichotomy of Economic Data SEG-1b: When Stocks are "Richly Valued" SEG-2a: The Economic Indicators of Recession SEG-2b: Strange Economic Indicators SEG-2c: The Giant Skeleton Indicator SEG-2d: When Will Indicators Change? SEG-2e: How Gig Workers Skew Employment Data SEG-2f: What Would an Impending Recession Mean to the Stock Market? SEG-2g: A Change in Quarterly Reporting? SEG-2h: What If We Went Back to the Lows of April? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKIv4RZn6sE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Jerome Powell's Alan Greenspan Moment" is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKShoQvDm38&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our Previous Show, "Two Dads on Money: Spotting Red Flags in Financial Advisors," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLQnqk_I9Ow&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2 ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #JeromePowell #StockMarketUpdate #PreMarketAnalysis #OverboughtMarkets #MarketVolatility #AlanGreenspan #RichlyValued #RecessionIndicators #StockMarketAnalysis #EconomicSignals #MarketFundamentals #InvestingInsights #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Markets pulled back Tuesday as Jerome Powell had his “Alan Greenspan moment,” warning that stocks are “richly valued.” While the dip worked off some overbought conditions, futures point higher this morning and the positive trend remains intact. Lance Roberts interprets what Powell's comments mean for investors, the widening gap between stock prices and moving averages, and why compressed volatility could set the stage for a sharper sell-off if something breaks. Stay tuned as we discuss: Why Powell's remarks echo Greenspan's famous caution. The risks of stretched valuations and market gaps. Key technical levels investors should be watching. Why volatility creeping higher may matter more than it seems.

Not all financial advisors are created equal.  Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn break down the biggest red flags you should watch out for before trusting someone with your financial future. From hidden fees to pushy sales tactics, we'll show you how to separate the pros from the pretenders. Whether you're interviewing a new advisor or reviewing your current one, these insights will help you protect your money and make smarter decisions.

Markets keep climbing along the moving averages, but warning signs are building. Negative divergences between money flows and price action suggest fewer buyers stepping in, even as stocks remain overbought. With support levels at the 50- and 100-day moving averages, any pullback may be shallow—and could set the stage for a year-end rally. In this pre-market update, we cover: Why divergences between money flows, oil, and energy stocks matter now. How support at key moving averages could cushion a correction. What earnings season and Trump's push to reduce reporting requirements mean for investors. Why the Dollar's consolidation supports asset prices—and what it signals for growth. Stay ahead of the open with the insights you need to manage risk and capture opportunity.

Are markets set to keep climbing, or are we staring down the next pullback? Lance Roberts breaks down the bullish vs. bearish case for stocks, exploring what could fuel the rally—and what risks could trip it up. From the Federal Reserve's latest moves, to earnings trends, market breadth, and money flows, we'll cover the key factors driving sentiment. Whether you lean bullish or bearish, this analysis will help you understand the forces shaping today's market. Also in this show, commentary on Lance's daughter's first college exam, Donald Trump's Tik Tok dealing: Who will benefit?  SEG-1a: All Bull Markets End in a Bear Market SEG-1b: Markets Continue Elevated Advance SEG-2a: Take Caution in Over Bought Markets SEG-2b: Citadel Securities - No Free Lunch SEG-2c: Market Tension Between Expectations & Reality SEG-2d: The Bull Case SEG-2e: The Bear Case SEG-2f: The Narrow Market  SEG-2g: What Investors Should Do Now

Markets are climbing at a pace that simply can't last. With retail investors pouring in $4 billion a day and corporate buybacks adding another $5 billion daily, the market's steep advance has pushed prices far above long-term averages. In this Before the Bell update, Lance Roberts reviews: Why extreme inflows are fueling unsustainable market momentum The risks of overbought conditions and stretched valuations Why a 3–5% correction could happen suddenly—even if the trend remains bullish What investors should watch for in managing risk History shows that reversions to the mean always happen. The only question is what catalyst sparks the next pullback. Stay disciplined, stay cautious, and remember: risk management is more important than market momentum.

From the Fed's next move to the outlook for gold and gold miners, Axel Merk, CEO of Merk Investments, shares with Lance Roberts his take on today's biggest market risks: The largest jobs revision ever, the Fed's lagging response, why active management beats passive distortions, and how investors should think about risk, contrarian views, and the role of gold in their portfolios. 0:18 - Introduction of Alex Merk, CEO Merk Investments    2:01 - Annual revisions to BLS Employment Report - Largest negative revision to jobs in history. 4:20 - William Poole's explanation of BLS numbers & methodology and why markets pay attention. 6:13 - Herbert Hoover's belief in National Data for creating BLS numbers. 8:19 - The market trades off the data, whether you agree with it or not. 9:35 -  How the Fed intervenes 10:55 - Kevin Walsh Fed candidate: The Fed needs more real-time data. They're always too late. 12:24 - Preview of September Fed meeting: The Fed should cut rates. 14:20 - What monetary policy is and/or   should be (and what it is not) 16:36  - Correlation of asset classes...and not. 18:55 - How the Fed looks at inflation & asset prices (Gold & Gold Miners) 21:55 - Active Management is counter-cyclical 22:52 - Gold & Gold Miners as an asset class: Due for correction?  24:41 -  The impact of passive investing driving asset prices; Index Investing & Price Distortion 26:29 - Rapidly depleting asset investments (Gold) 28:30 - Active Management Matters: Invest in management teams 30:14 - Importance of understanding the fundamentals of companies in which to invest 32:29 - Venture Capital-lite: Who Gets the Money? 34:42 - What Worries You Now? Having no investment process; a mediocre process is better than nothing  35:33 - If you can sleep with what you have...  37:25 - Why Technical Analysis works well in Gold space 40:20 - Risk Management in Good Times: The Value of Good Analysis 42:29 - The Value of Contrarian Views & Skin in the Game 45:29  - There is No Such Thing as an Investing in the End of the World; there's always the day after 48:07 - The Best Investment Advice Ever: Invest in Yourself Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube:  https://youtu.be/YeciboacIW0 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Volatility Looms Following Fed Cut," is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TwqWqisbCyQ&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our Previous Show, "No Risk-free Path for the Fed" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sC5i-sZm73o&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=7s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Corporate Earnings Slowdown Signaled By Employment Data" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/corporate-earnings-slowdown-signaled-by-employment-data/ "Invest Or Index – Exploring 5-Different Strategies" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/invest-or-index-exploring-5-different-strategies/ "Portfolio Risk Management: Accepting The Hard Truth" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/portfolio-risk-management-accepting-the-hard-truth/ ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #AxelMerk #JobsReport #FederalReserve #GoldInvesting #MarketOutlook

It's Fed Day – the most anticipated event for markets this month. The Federal Reserve's rate decision and Jerome Powell's press conference could shape the direction for stocks, bonds, and the economy heading into year-end. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down:  • What the Fed is likely to announce today  • The impact on interest rates, inflation, and growth  • How markets ($SPY, $QQQ, bonds, gold) typically react to Fed decisions  • Why risk management matters as volatility rises around policy changes Stay tuned for clear insights on how today's FOMC meeting could set the tone for investors into Q4.

The Federal Reserve cut rates on Wednesday, September 17, 2025 — but the path forward is anything but risk-free. Markets had already priced in much of the move, leaving investors to wonder if Powell's guidance will calm volatility or spark fresh uncertainty. Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz look at what the Fed's latest decision means for stocks, bonds, and the economy. Why Powell's words may matter more than the rate cut itself. The risks of inflation, slowing growth, and financial instability in the months ahead.

Markets sold off, then rallied back to even after the Fed announced its first rate move in nine months. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are showing early signs of rounded tops, but both are likely to set fresh all-time highs today. Volatility continues to compress, hitting new lows — but that calm may not last. Tomorrow brings one of the largest options expirations ever, setting the stage for heightened volatility as quarter-end re-balancing also comes into play. The dollar rallied on the Fed's cut, while the Magnificent 7 saw mixed performance, with some under-performing as money rotated into defensive names. Today could bring the opposite rotation, back into offensive growth stocks. Bottom line: risk management is key. Taking profits where possible makes sense in this environment, with no need for major portfolio shifts until the next wave of volatility hits.

Stocks head into today's session on edge as the risk lies to the downside if the Fed disappoints. Adding to the mix, a record options expiration Friday could bring heightened volatility for the rest of the week. Money flows continue to chase equities, but the biggest rallies have come from the most-shorted stocks. International and emerging markets are also showing strong momentum, with many trading well above their moving averages. Still, a widening gap persists between S&P equal-weight and market-cap indexes, as AI-driven tech remains the primary driver of gains. Meanwhile, bond yields keep sliding as markets price in rate cuts, but that message may be signaling deeper economic concerns. Are stocks right to keep rallying, or is the bond market flashing the real warning?

Should you invest actively or stick with indexing?  Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn break down five different strategies investors use to build wealth, reduce risk, and stay ahead of the market. From active stock picking to index fund simplicity, we'll explore the pros, cons, and real-world applications of each approach so you can better understand how they fit into your financial plan.

Markets continue the current phase of compression and no big moves in anticipation of Fed rate cuts to be announced tomorrow. Markets are operating under the lowest levels of compressed volatility we've seen in a while. Markets have just been ticking-up (or down) 20-basis points, 30-basis points each day, not making much headway. There is a slight tilt of more buyers than sellers at this point. The MACD buy signal is ON at elevated levels, which limits much more upside. We have moved into the seasonally weak period of the year, August and September, in which there is typically more volatility, only we didn't get it! Sometimes, averages and statistics don't do what they're supposed to...or what you want them to do. Some years have pullbacks in the Fall, and some years don't. This year didn't. What normally happens is weaker returns; that didn't happen, either: There is a lot of support for the markets and a lot of retail buying going on, and the chase for AI has been pushing stocks higher. The AIQ, for example, is at the highest, most over bought level we've seen since the peak of the market back in April. But breadth in the markets has not been very strong; only a few companies are seeing much activity, and those that ARE are seeing very extreme deviations above moving averages. This is cause for caution. Doesn't mean anything is going to crash, but those type of deviations are hard to sustain. Same thing is happening in the Q's. The equal-weighted index, however, is displaying very different behavior. We are about to move into a seasonally-strong period of the year; earnings are going to be good with a likely 75% beat-rate; that will support the markets. Stock buy backs are at record highs this year, and their resumption will also add support to markets.  Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLdsKL5irVM&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Register for our next RIA Dynamic Learning Series event, "Savvy Medicare Planning," September 18, 2025: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/events/savvy-medicare-planning-what-baby-boomers-need-to-know-about-medicare/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #MarketVolatility #StockMarketUpdate #AIStocks #SP500 #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing  

The jobs market isn't just about employment—it's a leading signal for corporate earnings. In this episode, we explore how recent employment data revisions and slowing job growth are flashing caution for corporate profits. Here's what you'll learn: Why employment trends often lead earnings results How slowing payroll growth may impact revenue and margins Key sectors most at risk from weaker labor demand What this signal could mean for the stock market outlook Portfolio considerations as corporate profits face pressure Understanding the link between the labor market and earnings is critical for investors positioning ahead of the next quarter. SEG-1a: Fed Cuts & Commentary, Buy Back Window Shuts SEG-1b: Market Movement Muted SEG-2a: Tesla Shares & Elon's Compensation SEG-2b: The S&P 493 SEG-2c: Bond Yield Behavior SEG-2d: Overall Bullish Backdrop  is not at Risk SEG-2e: The Only Thing that Matters (Forward Earnings) SEG-2f: What Wall St. is Expecting in 2026 SEG-2g: The Problem w Wall Street's Forecasts SEG-2h: The Most Important Indicator to Watch SEG-2i: PCE, CPI, & % of Full Time Workers SEG-2j: Why the Fed is Behind the Curve SEG-2k: Market Earnings Growth By Sector comparison SEG-2l: Why Watt St. Exuberance is at Odds w Economy Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "All Time Highs on Muted Moves," is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNd7D4lz7FU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our Previous Show, "The Essential Hierarchy of Money Goals ," is here: https://youtu.be/XHMHkOAWRIc ------- Register for our next RIA Dynamic Learning Series event, "Are We On the Edge of Recession?" September 18, 2025: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/events/savvy-medicare-planning-what-baby-boomers-need-to-know-about-medicare/ ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Corporate Earnings Slowdown Signaled By Employment Data" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/corporate-earnings-slowdown-signaled-by-employment-data/ "Invest Or Index – Exploring 5-Different Strategies" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/invest-or-index-exploring-5-different-strategies/ ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketComplacency #MarketDeviations #NegativeDivergence #AllTimeHigh #WallOfWorry #20DMA #CorporateEarnings #JobsReport #StockMarketOutlook #RecessionRisk #MarketAnalysis #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Markets hit another all time high last week, but on very muted moves as investors continue climb a wall of worry. Markets continue to test the 20-DMA and rally back above...another pullback to that level would not be surprising. Markets are somewhat over bought on a relative strength basis, and not sitting on a very tight MACD momentum signal. Retail buying is approaching some of the highest levels we've seen, while professional investors' allocations are still somewhat underweight equities (computer traded algorithms are excepted). AS we head into the end of the quarter, we could see institutional buying also providing additional support. This is NOT the look of a "market melt-up;" it's just a gradual grind higher with investors willing to pay a little more without a sharp, speculative spike. What to watch? Volatility remains complacent, and complacent markets invariably lead to non-complacent markets. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNd7D4lz7FU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Register for our next RIA Dynamic Learning Series event, "Savvy Medicare Planning," September 18, 2025: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/events/savvy-medicare-planning-what-baby-boomers-need-to-know-about-medicare/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketComplacency #MarketDeviations #NegativeDivergence #AllTimeHigh #WallOfWorry #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Where should your money go first? Too often, people skip ahead to investing or wealth strategies before laying the right foundation. Richard Rosso and Matt Doyle break down the essential hierarchy of money goals—a clear order of priorities to help you stay on track. From emergency savings and debt reduction to investing, wealth protection, and legacy planning, this framework shows you exactly how to progress step by step. By focusing on the right goals at the right time, you'll reduce stress, improve financial security, and set yourself up for long-term success. Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Relationship Manager, Matt Doyle, CFP  Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/XHMHkOAWRIc -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "The AI Trade is Back," is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6i2HhmE5U0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1  ------- Our Previous Show, "There Ain't No Inflation," is here: https://youtube.com/live/KuvJ7KcQU_0?feature=share ------- Register for our next RIA Dynamic Learning Series event, "Are We On the Edge of Recession?" September 18, 2025: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/events/savvy-medicare-planning-what-baby-boomers-need-to-know-about-medicare/ ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Valuations Are Extreme: Navigating A Bubble" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/valuations-are-extreme-navigating-a-bubble/ "Portfolio Risk Management: Accepting The Hard Truth" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/portfolio-risk-management-accepting-the-hard-truth/ "Meme Markets: Investing vs. Entertainment" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/meme-markets-investing-vs-entertainment/ ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MoneyGoals #FinancialPlanning #WealthBuilding #PersonalFinanceTips #FinancialFreedom #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Markets and the Fed keep talking about inflation, but what's really happening? Lance Roberts previews the upcoming CPI, PPI reports, and real-world data to explain why the official numbers don't always match what you're feeling. From wages and rents to energy prices--is inflation is truly under control, or just hiding in plain sight. Discover how “disinflation” differs from “deflation,” why Wall Street's narrative matters for stocks, and what it means for your portfolio. SEG-1a: Inflation Day - Will Tariffs' Effects Appear? SEG-1b: What Bond Yields Are Telling About Interest Rates SEG-2a: Will Markets Have Another 20% Year? SEG-2b: Inflation Estimates & CPI Components SEG-2c: Wrapping the Quarter - Buy Backs & Positioning SEG-2d: The Risk Range Report Explained SEG-2e: Dealing with Bearish Bias Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "The AI Trade is Back," is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6i2HhmE5U0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1  ------- Our Previous Show, "The Best Way to Buy Bitcoin: Smart Investors Guide," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhKjbRKNksY ------- Register for our next RIA Dynamic Learning Series event, "Are We On the Edge of Recession?" September 18, 2025: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/events/savvy-medicare-planning-what-baby-boomers-need-to-know-about-medicare/ ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Valuations Are Extreme: Navigating A Bubble" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/valuations-are-extreme-navigating-a-bubble/ "Portfolio Risk Management: Accepting The Hard Truth" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/portfolio-risk-management-accepting-the-hard-truth/ "Meme Markets: Investing vs. Entertainment" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/meme-markets-investing-vs-entertainment/ ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #CPI #PPI #Inflation #MarketDeviations #NegativeDivergence #AI #Nvidia #Oracle #Tech  #Bonds #BondYields #20DMA #Inflation #FederalReserve #CPI #StockMarket #EconomicOutlook #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Good market performance on Wednesday, but that was on the backs of only a few stocks: Broadcom, Nvidia, Oracle...all AI-related. Oracle's outlook for AI-related Cap-ex spending was optimistic, which dovetailed nicely with what Nvidia had said earlier. Oracle opened the day ahead 33%, traded as high as 40%, and closed the day with a 35% gain. That action lifted the entire Tech sector, and pushed the S&P to another all-time high. Price compression is creating a wedge pattern, which markets are trying to break out of. The negative divergence we've been watching really doesn't matter...until it matters. Yesterday's breadth, however, was not impressive, with only a few spots of strength and a lot of red across the market heat map. Yesterday's PPI report ignited a kneejerk reaction in the bond market, but digging deeper into the data resulted in a further decline in yields. This morning's CPI report (+2.9%) will have a bearing on bonds, and if yields continue to drop, short covering will add to the movement downward. Interest Rates now have a buy signal, indicating yields will slip lower. Bond are over sold, and a reversal would not be surprising. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6i2HhmE5U0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Register for our next RIA Dynamic Learning Series event, "Savvy Medicare Planning," September 18, 2025: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/events/savvy-medicare-planning-what-baby-boomers-need-to-know-about-medicare/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #CPI #PPI #Inflation #MarketDeviations #NegativeDivergence #AI #Nvidia #Oracle #Tech  #Bonds #BondYields #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Are we standing at the edge of a recession? Economic data is showing cracks: slowing job growth, weakening consumer spending, and tightening credit conditions. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's policies continue to weigh on growth. In this episode, Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down the key signals flashing caution, what they could mean for corporate earnings and market performance, and how investors should think about risk management in the months ahead; plus bonus content: Sourdough bread and marriage tips.  SEG-1a: Jobs Revision and Economic Reality SEG-1b: Money Flows & Inflation Preview SEG-2a: Sourdough Baking w Christina & Michelle SEG-2b: Are We In a Recession - YouTube Poll SEG-2c: What Does Recession Mean? SEG-2d: Instead of Predicting, Start Preparing SEG-2e: When Everyone Agrees... SEG-2f: Don't Over-react to "Recession" SEG-2g: What Can You Control? SEG-2h: Understanding the Risk of Speculation SEG-2i: What About "Cash on the Sidelines?" SEG-2j: The Math of Loss vs Compounding SEG-2k: Don't Forget to Save SEG-2l: Cash Gives Options SEG-2m: Happy Wife, Happy Life Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Money Flows Bolster Markets," is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6i2HhmE5U0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1  ------- Our Previous Show, "The Best Way to Buy Bitcoin: Smart Investors Guide," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhKjbRKNksY ------- Register for our next RIA Dynamic Learning Series event, "Savvy Medicare Planning," September 18, 2025: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/events/savvy-medicare-planning-what-baby-boomers-need-to-know-about-medicare/ ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Valuations Are Extreme: Navigating A Bubble" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/valuations-are-extreme-navigating-a-bubble/ "Portfolio Risk Management: Accepting The Hard Truth" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/portfolio-risk-management-accepting-the-hard-truth/ "Meme Markets: Investing vs. Entertainment" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/meme-markets-investing-vs-entertainment/ ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MoneyFlows #RelativeStrength #CPI #PPI #Inflation #MarketDeviations #NegativeDivergence #MarketCorrection #20DMA #Recession #Cash #Economy #StockMarket #FederalReserve #MarketOutlook #SourdoughBread #MarriageTips #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Money flows have been positive over the past few weeks, yet markets have not advanced much. Relative strength is picking up, but still in a negative divergence with the market itself. However, momentum remains very, very slow even as stocks continue to rise. Only slowly. There is a significant gap between the market and the MAG-7. More inflation prints coming in the latest CPI & PPI reports, and if they come in weaker than expected, along with the recent disappointing employment numbers, the odds increase of a 50-bp rate cut by the Fed.  Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6i2HhmE5U0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Register for our next RIA Dynamic Learning Series event, "Savvy Medicare Planning," September 18, 2025: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/events/savvy-medicare-planning-what-baby-boomers-need-to-know-about-medicare/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MoneyFlows #RelativeStrength #CPI #PPI #Inflation #MarketDeviations #NegativeDivergence #MarketCorrection #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Thinking about buying Bitcoin but not sure of the best approach? You're not alone. With so many options—crypto exchanges, ETFs, custodians, and even payment apps—the path can feel overwhelming. In this episode, we break down the smartest ways to buy Bitcoin while considering security, fees, custody, and long-term investing strategy. Should you buy directly on an exchange, use a crypto wallet, or stick to regulated investment vehicles like ETFs? We'll walk through the pros and cons so you can make an informed decision that fits your goals. Whether you're a beginner or a seasoned investor curious about crypto, this guide will help you navigate the choices and avoid costly mistakes.

Lance Roberts explores how the rise of passive index funds and ETFs has reshaped markets, leading to higher correlations across asset classes and eroding the traditional benefits of diversification. Once considered the cornerstone of portfolio risk management, diversification now struggles as capital floods into passive vehicles—concentrating money in the same stocks and sectors. He'll break down: Why diversification no longer offers the same protection. How passive investing drives market distortions. The hidden risks behind “set it and forget it” strategies. What investors need to consider when building resilient portfolios today. SEG-1a: Economic Trends Continue to Weaken SEG-1b: Negative Divergence Continues SEG-2a: The Ugly Reason Behind Portfolio Diversification SEG-2b: The Correlation of One SEG-2c: What's in Your ETF? SEG-2d: 7-Rules for Portfolio Management SEG-2e: Diversification is Hogwash SEG-2f: Bashing Keynesian Economic Theories SEG-2g: The Trouble with Fed Intra-meeting Rate Cuts SEG-2h: Dollars Needed to Generate GDP

Markets sold off on Friday; nothing really surprising to investors. Markets continue to grind along the trend line, with a little weakness showing in Nvidia and other tech stocks. This is why it's important to keep portfolios balanced between growth a defense. The S&P isn't breaking out, rather moving side ways, tracking right along with the 20-DMA. The biggest concern we have presently is the continuing, large negative divergence in relative strength and momentum. This behavior tends to show up prior to market corrections. Volatility remains extremely suppressed. Gold's consolidation has resulted in abnormal over-bought conditions. This would be a great place to take profits and await the next pullback. An inverse of that has been Oil prices, very over-sold. Despite the weakness in Oil, Energy prices have been performing well. Bond Yields have fallen sharply over the past three sessions; the trend in Yields has been decidedly lower over the past few months.   Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIeIdX4aXas&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1  ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Register for our next RIA Dynamic Learning Series event, "Savvy Medicare Planning," September 18, 2025: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/events/savvy-medicare-planning-what-baby-boomers-need-to-know-about-medicare/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BullishTrend #NegativeDivergence #MarketCorrection #PortfolioAllocation #PortfolioHedging #RiskManagement #Gold #Oil #Yields #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing