It's a show about life, markets, sweat-equity, and the pursuit of wealth in a capitalist market.
(9/20/23) It's FOMC Day: Rate decision and economic forecasts + the Powell presser. Two questions remain: Is the Fed done, and when will the rate cuts begin? Are we doing Bonds wrong? A discussion based upon an article in MarketWatch: Why investors seeking stability always go for US Bonds vs international debt? FedEx reports = barometer on retail sales; General Mills & the Cereal Index: the cost of feeding kids at breakfast; Danny pays his kid for fly balls & Christina Roberts' money tree. The new Retirement Bill: take risk in taxable accounts. Can the Fed achieve a "soft-landing," what is that, anyway? Pandemic effect on employment & investing. The challenging year; who'll cave first in congressional budget talks? SEG-1: FOMC Day Preview SEG-2: Are We Doing Bonds Wrong? SEG-3: FedEx Barometer for Retail Sales, and Feeding Kids SEG-4: Can the Fed Achieve a "Soft Landing?" Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Are Markets Close to Trigger Point?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBV-ToNbB-E&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Waiting for the Fed" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEOlkyTLTAc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ "Bond Vigilantes And The Waiting For Godot" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-vigilantes-and-the-waiting-for-gadot/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #FOMC #interestRates #GovernmentShutdown #Bonds #ForeignDebt #FedExBarometer #CerealIndex #RetailSales #Markets #Money #Investing
(9/20/23) The market is glued to what the Fed will say this afternoon following its monthly FOMC meeting. Despite the volatility and choppiness recently, markets have really gone nowhere. Markets are operating within a very confined consolidation range. Regardless of the Fed's comments today, the result will likely be a directional move to one side or the other. Hawkish comments will likely send markets to the downside, or at least remain within the consolidation zone, but a dovish approach could elevate stocks anew. There is downside risk, but the most-likely result will be the continuation of the consolidation process. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBV-ToNbB-E&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #FederalReserve #MarketVolatility #MarketSupport #Markets #Money #Investing
(9/19/23) What's wrong with prepping for Halloween...in September? Fed meeting preview; earnings season is all but done, oil prices are creeping up, most over-bought commodity, so look for a pullback; Dovish Fed & Market consolidation continues w suppressed volatility. Will there be weakness in October to set up for run into the end of the year? (Charts & graphs) Why Fed GDP growth projections are too high (and never correct). Lower inflation gives Fed room to not raise rates yet; odds of market shock are low. The problem with data is the lag effect: It's all early guesswork. Are ETF's good for the markets, long-term? Why issue an ETF as a loss-leader? (How do issuers make money on ETF's?? Liquidity in Order-flow (there's no free lunch). At what point does market distortion by EFT's become a problem? SEG-1: Preparing for October & Fed Meeting Preview SEG-2: October Weakness Before Year-end Rally? SEG-3: The Problem with Lag Effect in Data SEG-4: What Will Be the Unintended Effects of EFT's? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEOlkyTLTAc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Are Markets Close to Trigger Point?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQ4D3lSgGAU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Economy Trifecta This Month" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NH8jO8-aapQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ "Bond Vigilantes And The Waiting For Godot" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-vigilantes-and-the-waiting-for-gadot/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #UAWstrike #GovernmentShutdown #StudentLoanRepayment #BondVigilantes #PizzaSales #ManCave #GirlMath #Markets #Money #Investing
(9/19/23) The market is beginning to price-in what they expect to happen, essentially holding flatly against a consolidation line. Markets are close to being over-sold and close to triggering a short-term sell-signal. That could reverse, should the market rally. A dovish Fed meeting outcome could be that spark. Markets are now setting up for that seasonably strong period of the year, but not quite there, yet, with confidence settling and sentiment returning. There certainly is room for markets to break to the downside; volatility has been very suppressed. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQ4D3lSgGAU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #FederalReserve #MarketVolatility #MarketSupport #Markets #Money #Investing
(9/18/23) Last week's market pressure came from economic numbers; this week, it's the Fed meeting, and the 'will they, won't they' question about raising rates. Most likely, the Fed will hold steady with not rate hike this month. There is an economic trifecta bearing down on markets: The resumption of student loan payments, the UAW strike, and the renewed threat of a government shutdown. September seems to be a month of significance: Historically, the Lehman failure, 9/11... Markets closed down +1% on Friday thanks to extreme options expirations. Man Cave Weekend & Girl Math; Why the UAW Strike isn't the end of the world, but will impact economic activity. Resumption of student loan repayments and government shutdown have more risk to economy. Pizza Sales indicator; the pay disparity myth: it's a job-choice issue. The Myth of Bond Vigilantes; how looking for a recession has morphed into looking for a soft landing; when all the experts agree, something else happens. The Fed is expected to hold firm on rates. There's been only one soft-landing since the end of WW2. The data is flawed: We don't know what we don't know. SEG-1: The Significance of September SEG-2: Man Cave Weekend & Girl Math; The Economic Trifecta SEG-3: The Myth of the Bond Vigilantes SEG-4: Four Threats Against a Soft Landing Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NH8jO8-aapQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "When Will Buying Power Return? " is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGrGUnh6oC4&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "When Your 90-Year Old Parent Moves-in" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGPpBMhoPVE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2664s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Bond Vigilantes And The Waiting For Godot" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-vigilantes-and-the-waiting-for-gadot/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #UAWstrike #GovernmentShutdown #StudentLoanRepayment #BondVigilantes #PizzaSales #ManCave #GirlMath #Markets #Money #Investing
(9/18/23) Markets closed down a little more than 1% on Friday, taking out the 20- and 50-DMA. Friday was strange due to the largest options expirations on record: A lot of stocks had to be sold and there were a lot of puts on companies that had top be rolled over, creating an outsized level of volatility on Friday. Markets are now solidly sitting on support atop a consolidation pattern we've been in for a few weeks, after grinding through this seasonably weak period of the year. Markets will be positioning ahead of this week's Fed meeting, so additional weakness over the next several days would not be surprising. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGrGUnh6oC4&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketVolatility #FederalReserve #MarketSupport #Markets #Money #Investing
(9/15/23) Predictions are for no more rate hikes for a while; UAW Strike is on: What do you do if you need a car now? How to plan for taking care of elderly parents. At what age are best financial decisions made? Financial literacy peaks at 54; " eureka moment" at 45. What happens when your 90-year old parent moves-in? How to talk about aging and finances: When it's time to take away the financial keys; planning ahead to avoid animosity. The documentation you need: Wills, Directives, TOD's, & Trusts; Fidelity FidSafe, online access to accounts. What do you do with all that junk...er, those heirlooms? SEG-1: The UAW Strike: What if You Need a Car? SEG-2: The Best Age for Making Financial Decisions SEG-3: How to Talk About Aging & Financials SEG-4: What Do You Do With the Junk? Hosted by RIA Advisors Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP, Senior Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGPpBMhoPVE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2664s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "What's Likely to Trigger the Next Round of Volatility?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jypMhluou3s&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What's Up with Inflation?" v=3UG4e75gfbM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2731s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Lag Effect Unveiled" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-lag-effect-unveiled/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #UAWstrike #ElderlyParents #Eldercare #FinancialKeys #FinancialDiscussion #FinancialLiteracy #Markets #Money #Investing
(9/14/23) The ARM IPO debuts today at $51/share; why IPO's aren't a good deal. PPI preview; CPI review: Inflation up on fuel prices and housing costs; the Fed is on hold for now. Market Volatility is very low on a deep sell signal; potential triggers could be the UAW Strike at midnight tonight, government shutdown fears in October, and the reimposition of student loan payments sucking revenue from retail sales. The impact of oil prices on inflation is negligible compared to shelter costs (accounting for over 1/3rd of CPI). Don't expect a large bump in inflation from energy costs. Core Inflation vs Headline Data: Why inflation is calculated this way. What will the Fed do next? They're not saying in order to avoid a market rally. Job Creation planning is at an 8-year low. No more payroll growth = no economic expansion; employment levels now returning to "normal." Traffic tickets & home-life discussions at the Roberts'; market preview & EOY investing strategies; market performance YTD; the need for portfolio managers to "play catch-up" to preserve their jobs. Look for a reversal of stock buyback suppression; 2024 may be "The Year of Value." SEG-1: Is the Fed on Hold? SEG-2: Interpreting Inflation SEG-3: What Will the Fed Do Next? SEG-4: Traffic Tickets, Homelife Discussions, & EOY Investing Strategies Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UG4e75gfbM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2731s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "What's Likely to Trigger the Next Round of Volatility?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jypMhluou3s&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "How Mortgage Lenders Created Unaffordable Housing" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGh81vUL7Aw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2 -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Lag Effect Unveiled" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-lag-effect-unveiled/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #CPI #Inflation #PPI #EnergyPrices #Shelter #Volatility #ARMIPO #Markets #Money #Investing
(9/14/23) Volatility remains exceptionally low, despite CPI and inflation news. The sell signal is now pretty deep. What could trigger the next round of volatility? An impending strike by United Auto Workers at midnight tonight, which would immediately affect used car prices, as well as impact Q4 performance; another potential government shutdown in October could impact economic growth; also, student loan repayments return in October, potentially pulling spending out of retail sales, which could also impact economic growth in Q4. The way forward is not clear, so pay attention to volatility. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jypMhluou3s&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #CPI #Inflation #PriceCompression #MarketVolatility #UAWstrike #StudentLoanRepayment #GovernmentShutdown #Markets #Money #Investing
(9/13/23) Markets rallied into Apple's iPhone reveal, then sold off yesterday; who can afford an iPhone 15? CPI for August to be released this morning (3.7% vs anticipated 3.6%). Lenders are now rolling out a 1% down payment program in hopes of reviving their business. The thing about home ownership: It's always something. How do mortgage lenders do it? They eat part of the rate up front, but YOU will pay for it on the back end. What does a larger (20%) down payment say about financial ability? The cost of home ownership goes beyond being able to afford a mortgage payment; home prices are a function of supply & demand. No one wants to sell into a housing market with 7% mortgage rates. The tricks home builders use; How "good" do Baby Boomers have it (and why)? Time to invest, bull markets; thought processes about money, managing expenses. What is an IPOP all about: It's NOT selling at a discount. (Fiscal responsibility doesn't sell products) What do 20% of Gen-Z's want to be? Social Media influencers. Switching from spending to saving mode. SEG-1: The Apple Reveal: Who Can Afford an iPhone? SEG-2: Is the 1% Down Payment a Win-win? SEG-3: The Cost of Home Ownership: Why Prices are Too High SEG-4: Why Baby Boomers have it So "Good" Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Rising Bottoms & Declining Tops" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DK_yt7qpT20&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "When Bad News Spells Opportunity" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEgjm3cLQEI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2&t=14s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Oil Price Inflation & Interest Rates. What Is The Link?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/oil-price-inflation-interest-rates-what-is-the-link/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Apple #CPI #Inflation #MortageRates #AffordableHousing #DownPayment #HomeOwnership #Markets #Money #Investing
(9/13/23) Markets rallied into Apple's iPhone reveal, and then sold off. The wedge pattern of rising bottoms and declining tops is becoming more pronounced and more compressed, and prices are going to have to make a move out of this tighter range fairly soon. The question is, what will be the trigger? Headline Core Inflation was expected to print at .6% year over year (it did), but month over month inflation increased at a 3.7% rate vs the expected 3.6%. These numbers could lead to a decline of as much as 1.5% in the S&P today. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DK_yt7qpT20&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #CPI #Inflation #PriceCompression #Markets #Money #Investing
(9/12/23) The markets have gone 95-days since any correction of at least 1.5%; today is Apple day: Where did the hype all go? Tomorrow's CPI report is expected to show inflation a tad higher, but not enough to trigger another Fed rate hike. Yet. Weakness in the Labor market is becoming more apparent. Options traders are piling into Zero-DTE's, essentially gambling on the market. Volatility has calmed, a precursor for higher volatility. The Fiscal Year for the Federal Government is coming to a close (again) with no budget since Bush was in office. Remembering how government spending used to be: One item, one bill (pre-WW2). Temporary mass-spending bills are now the norm. What does the threat of "Government Shutdown" really entail? There is no risk of debt default or SS non-payment. 5th Circuit Court rules on internet censorship and collusion between Biden administration & social media platforms to violate 1st Amendment. Dealing w mis-information; why opposing views are important. The "Global Warming" narrative has evolved into "Climate Change;" follow the money. Market futures; Raytheon's 16% drop on engine recalls; why it pays to be contrarian. Bad news can sometimes mean opportunity. SEG-1: Where'd the Hype Go at Apple? SEG-2: What Does a Gov't Shutdown Really Entail? SEG-3: What the Internet Should Be All About SEG-4: When Bad News Spells Opportunity Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEgjm3cLQEI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2&t=14s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Zero-DTE Options: Gamble or Good?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGF6yshrJ7s&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Biggest Head-scratchers This Year" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pm3PgLBY76g&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=57s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Oil Price Inflation & Interest Rates. What Is The Link?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/oil-price-inflation-interest-rates-what-is-the-link/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Apple #CPI #Raytheon #MarketVolatility #Options #GovernmentShutdown #Internet #1stAmemendment #ClimateChange #Inflation #Deflation #Markets #Money #Investing
(9/12/23) Options traders continue to pile-in to short-dated options, or Zero-DTE (Days to Expiration) options, essentially gambling in terms of the general market. This is no surprise, considering we've gone 95-days without any significant 1.5% correction, and there's basically no volatility, and no real concern in terms of taking on risk. Despite a 5% correction in August, which did lead to a small up-tick in volatility, that has now becalmed. So, volatility levels are as low as they've ever been since September of last year. But here's the deal: Ultra-low volatility eventually leads to high volatility, and so the current level should be viewed as a warning sign of things to come. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGF6yshrJ7s&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketVolatility #ZeroDTEoptions #Volatility #Options #MarketCorrection #Markets #Money #Investing
(9/11/23) Football Season returns (yawn); CPI/PPI Preview, Oracle's earnings; how will uptick in oil prices affect CPI calculations? (not much); Apple takes a 6% hit on China iPhone ban, but no real impact on NASDAQ. Remembering 9/11 22-years later. One of the big head-scratchers this year is why we haven't had a recession. A look at the Citi Surprise Index; when economic data points diverge. How the economy works: What comes first, Production or Consumption; is there really job-creation or just re-hiring of those laid off in the pandemic? Hostess & Smucker's to merge: Looking at the possibilities; will higher oil prices create surprise inflation (makes up on 7% of CPI)? The problem with lags in economic data; GDP will have to "catch-down" to GDI. SEG-1: Economic Reports - What Makes Up the CPI? SEG-2: Remembering 9/11; When Economic Datapoints Diverge SEG-3: Chicken or Egg; Production or Consumption? SEG-4: Smucker's & Hostess Marriage & Offspring Combinations; Oil Prices, & Fed Stance on Rates now Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "What Apple's Big Bite Means for Markets " is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slpBNFB8Nm0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RA3snVQyugvOF5TwZ1Xu7bm&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "6 Medicare Landmines to Avoid" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnl-e0orht0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Oil Price Inflation & Interest Rates. What Is The Link?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/oil-price-inflation-interest-rates-what-is-the-link/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Apple #CPI #OilPrices #9_11 #EconomicDivergence #Production #Consumption #Inflation #Deflation #Markets #Money #Investing
(9/11/23) Apple declined nearly 6% last week following news of China banning iPhone use by its government officials. But Apple's souring did not affect the overall NASDAQ, which has been driven of late by 7 main stocks; despite Apple's decline, the NASDAQ continued to rally on Thursday and Friday to finish at the 50-DMA. Apple tomorrow rolls out its new iPhone 15, new iPods and watches, which should be a big driver for the company. Note: the S&P 500 Equal Weight index, which eliminates the outsized effects of Apple and other mega-caps, has gone virtually nowhere this year. The performance of mid-cap and small-cap stocks has been even more dismal this year. For now, Mega-caps continue to drive the markets...but that could change. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slpBNFB8Nm0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RA3snVQyugvOF5TwZ1Xu7bm&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Apple #iPhone #China #Megacap #MidCap #SmallCap #Markets #Money #Investing
(9/8/23) Spending Lottery winnings; no more drilling = higher fuel prices; Candid Coffee tease; A flounder markets: Odds of Fed pause increasing; the threat of government shutdown & market ripples? Congress as "Animal House:" Oil Prices & Apple; market dynamics & touch psychology: Managing expectations. Healthcare premium increases for 2024 = 6.5%: Dealing w realities of Inflation. Zip Lock Bags & Canned goods; Medicare landmines to avoid: importance of pre-Medicare planning; will your doctor accept Medicare? Medigap/supplemental coverage window. Silly climate activists; more Medicare landmines: dealing w enrollment & underwriting; what happens if you go back to work?? HSA's vs Medicare. SEG-1: Flounder Markets & Government Spending Battles SEG-2: Managing Expectations in Tough Times SEG-3: Ziplock Bags & Medicare Landmines SEG-4: More Medicare Landmines Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnl-e0orht0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Why We Sold TLT" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5O_KdxR2kQY&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Why We Did a Big Bond Swap" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RA4t87EVRuQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=12s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Risk Free Government Debt – Fact or Fiction?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/risk-free-government-debt-fact-or-fiction/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Medicare #Medigap #FederalReserve #GovernmentShutdown #GovernmentDebt #HealthSavingsAccount #Markets #Money #Investing
(9/7/23) Earnings season is wrapping up, just in time to get ready for the NEXT quarter's earnings reports! What do Parking Lot Reports and the markets have in common? Not much going on. Waiting for the lag; rising oil prices; markets sold off, and about to give a pullback, a normal function. Apple iPhones restricted in China: Is this an opportunity for more exposure? Market correction in a bullish trend. Preview of next Fed Meeting (9/20): One more look at Inflation. Prediction: Fed will do nothing as inflation normalizes. Economy IS slowing, recession IS coming, but lag effect not hitting for 6-moths? Effects of higher rates will take longer to be felt. The Big Bond Swap: Why we sold TLT. All economic markers for the next 20-years are downward; looking to futures & what if's. Advantages of bonds include guaranteed payback of principal; guaranteed income stream. Government Bonds and Risk-free Debt: Is it, really? Why higher interest rates are unsustainable; economy is debt-dependent. The myth of "Bond Vigilantes;" what happens when interest rates become an impediment to the economy. SEG-1: Parking Lot Reports & Market Activity SEG-2: Next Fed Meeting Preview SEG-3: The Big Bond Swap SEG-4: Is Government Debt Really "Risk Free" Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RA4t87EVRuQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=12s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Why We Sold TLT" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5O_KdxR2kQY&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "7 Investment Types You Should Avoid" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1NYwasSS0A&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Risk Free Government Debt – Fact or Fiction?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/risk-free-government-debt-fact-or-fiction/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #BondSwap #OilPrices #InterestRates #BondYields #FederalReserve #GovernmentDebt #RiskFree #Markets #Money #Investing
(9/7/23) Rising interest rates have been a big concern, affecting all businesses, households, and investors. With higher bond yields in the face of lower growth rates, we deemed it prudent to take advantage of an opportunity to lock-in +4% yields for the next two decades at a time that economic indicators are all pointing downward. Michael Lebowitz & Lance Roberts discuss why and how they executed their bond swap this week. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5O_KdxR2kQY&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Risk Free Government Debt – Fact or Fiction?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/risk-free-government-debt-fact-or-fiction/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #BondSwap #TLT #20YrTreasuries #Yields #StockPrices #Interest Rates #Demographics #EconomicGrowth #Recession #Money #Investing
(9/6/23) All those Jobs numbers deserve a look under the hood: Are we really creating new jobs or just replacing the ones that went away? NOTE: Following each Jobs Report, revisions are made to previous numbers; this year's revisions are the most negative since the financial crisis. Are Jobs numbers a Recession indicator? The Risk remains. Markets in Correctional Period, VIX suppression vs history; investors have no apparent fear of Recession. Sleeping-in & Zip-lock bags; everyone is convinced no Recession is coming. All indicators say otherwise. How the bottom 80% are living. Investment types you should avoid: Speculative assets (ex.: Irani Dinar craze); Private REIT's: Why are they being offered to YOU?? Liquidity is key: When do you get your money back? Who is making the money on the deal? I-bonds: No one understands them. Any investment you don't understand. "High Yield" Bonds = High risk. Leverages ETF's: Risky; Commodities: are really options w decay of premium, and subject to boom/bust cycles. SEG-1: Jobs Picture May Not Be So Robust SEG-2: Sleeping Late, Ziplock Bags, No Recession? SEG-3: Investment Types You Should Avoid, Pt-1 SEG-4: Investment Types You Should Avoid, Pt-2 Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Why Investors Have No Fear of Recession" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wO8bZRTgK0w&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Can Mega-caps Continue to Lead?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkGxDBzOJNE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Downside of Diversity" (WSJ) https://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/05/world/americas/05iht-diversity.1.6986248.html "Mega-Cap Stocks Continue To Dominate. But Why?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/mega-cap-stocks-continue-to-dominate-but-why/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #JobsReport #Employment #Recession #ZipLockBags #Cereal #InvestmentTypes #SpeculativeAssets #REIT #IraqiDinar #Liquidity #iBonds #HighYield #JunkBonds #LeveragedETF #Commodities #Markets #Money #Investing
(9/6/23) Markets are doing okay, down a little bit yesterday, interest rates were up a bit because of oil prices; markets continue to do what they do during this August-September correctional period. But a look at the Volatility Index (VIX), which is very, very supressed right now, has picked up in recent days due to the choppiness of the market. But as a whole, volatility is repressed relative to where we've been historically. Investors seem to have no fear of a correction in the market, nor of recession. But historically, these periods of low volatility have always preceded a bigger market correction. What triggers that? Who knows? Note also that dividend yields are lower than where they should be in this market, suggesting that yields will be higher in the future. But in order for yields to go up, stock price have to come down. Not knowing when or what will cause the change is unsettling, which is why volatility is one thing to watch as an "early warning signal" for changes up ahead. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wO8bZRTgK0w&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Mega-Cap Stocks Continue To Dominate. But Why?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/mega-cap-stocks-continue-to-dominate-but-why/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #Volatility #VIX #Yields #StockPrices #MarketCorrection #Recession #Money #Investing
(9/5/23) Markets are entering the "weak" month of September, the home of when things fall apart; barring any catastrophe, the month should prove to be flat. August Jobs Report shows higher unemployment = slower spending = lower inflation, the Fed's goal. Popcorn shrinkflation at Costco. Why Mega-cap stocks continue to lead the market: Growth of ETF's, and money must be invested for safety & liquidity. Why the Deficit declined: reduced spending; deficit now doubling due to more spending, which has again deferred Recession. The widening gap between spending and revenues; inflation is always a monetary phenomenon (fiscal policy). Government money now being spent on non-productive debt. The Fed's role in Government debt; circular logic in government math & accounting. The downside of Diversity: What is the benefit of DE&I (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion): When diversity is higher, charitable donations and cooperation decline; why are companies pushing DE&I? Employees are less-inclined to unionize. The Value of Social Capital. SEG-1: Market Rally Continues SEG-2: Will Mega-caps Continue to Lead? SEG-3: Government Math & Circular Accounting Logic SEG-4: The Downside of DE&I Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkGxDBzOJNE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Where Money is Hiding" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npFqaJnJZjM&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "How We're Fighting Inflation Now" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldE2JtxJ_54&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Downside of Diversity" (WSJ) https://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/05/world/americas/05iht-diversity.1.6986248.html "Mega-Cap Stocks Continue To Dominate. But Why?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/mega-cap-stocks-continue-to-dominate-but-why/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #MegaCap #JobsReport #Unemployment #Shrinkflation #Deficit #GovernmentMath #DEI #Diversity #Markets #Money #Investing
(9/5/23) The month of September is officially kicking-off, with a nice, upside close on Friday; a continuation of an upward trend. A buy-signal is in place, and markets are starting to get a little over-bought in the short-term, but not egregiously so. Futures this morning are pointing at a little bit of a weaker opening. The 50-DMA is sitting above the 20-DMA, providing two levels of support around 4,450. A pullback today would be okay, even healthy, in selling off some of the over-boughtenness in the markets, and allow for a better entry point to put your money to work. Money continues to hide in Mega-cap stocks as a function of liquidity and safety. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6H_9akXBRrU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Mega-Cap Stocks Continue To Dominate. But Why?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/mega-cap-stocks-continue-to-dominate-but-why/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #MegaCap #20DMA #50DMA #200DMA #Liquidity #Safety #Money #Investing
(9/4/23) Debt service is diverting revenue from economic growth. The Fed is stuck between high rates and high inflation. How home builders are revising house plans to meet buyer realities. As goes China, so goes others' economies. Example of economic failure: China's empty cities & transportation systems = artificial growth. No one is using them. The "beauty" Socialism and Communism is always undone by human nature. Do we really want a "Do Whatever it Takes" economy? Why Baby Boomers are the luckiest generation alive: slotted into time period with remarkable market gains. Why are we afraid of recession? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Have Markets Set the High for the Year?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AbzKie4F5Kk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Will September Be Better than August?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2Mq_Rp1_yA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=11s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "10 Best Days – A Meme For Every Bull Market" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/10-best-days-a-meme-for-every-bull-market/ "Deficit Surge Will Lead To Lower Rates, Not Higher" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/deficit-surge-will-lead-to-lower-rates-not-higher/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #HurricaneIdalia #MarketRally #FOMO #InvestorSentiment #Socialism #Communism #HumanNature #BabyBoomers #InterestRates #Inflation #China #LAgEffect #ESG #Blackrock #Markets #Money #Investing
(9/1/23) Anticipating Jobs Report (187k vs 170k estimated); bad news is good news. Inflation is here to stay; wage growth is slowly cooling; Lending Club survey on living paycheck to paycheck & non-essential spending. The "winter" of society is here; Neil Howe's "The Fourth Turning is Here;" the need for household financial rules; the geopolitical risk seems higher than at anytime in our lifetimes. The need for a financial vulnerability cushion. The manipulation by the media. The foolishness of allowing political sentiment to guide investment. Preview of our next Candid Coffee, Financial Fitness Podcast, and show swag; Changes in 529's and what to do with left-over money; filling out the FAFSA; the FAFSA Simplification Act. How grandparents can contribute to college education. Advantages of going to trade school. What is a university's ROI? Thrift Store Finds & Old Homes' Walls; the Secure Act should be called the "Rothification Act of America;" what happens in 2026?? Forced catch-up in Roth implications & tax rule sunset. SEG-1: Inflation is Here to Stay SEG-2: Living Paycheck to Paycheck & Non-essential Spending SEG-3: Coming Changes in 529's & FAFSA SEG-4: Thrift Store Finds; the Rothification of America Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldE2JtxJ_54&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will September Weakness Return?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6H_9akXBRrU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Has the Fed Already Broken Something?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWmqq-Eqr2o&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Inflation And Deficits And QT, Oh My -Part 2" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/inflation-and-deficits-and-qt-oh-my-part-2 "10 Best Days – A Meme For Every Bull Market" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/10-best-days-a-meme-for-every-bull-market/ "Deficit Surge Will Lead To Lower Rates, Not Higher" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/deficit-surge-will-lead-to-lower-rates-not-higher/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #JobsReport #Inflation #InterestRates #TheFourthTurning #PaycheckToPaycheck #529 #FAFSA #GeopoliticalRisk #Roth #Markets #Money #Investing
(8/31/23) Markets prepare to move into September, with weaker ADP report, downward revision to GDP, and a large gap between GDP vs GDI (Gross Domestic Income). GDP is on the rise, GDI is declining; what will revisions show? The deviation between income vs production must be rectified. Market rally continues; September may not be as weak as historical averages suggest, thanks to August action. Is GDP actually lower than reported? Defining the Fed's "Neutral Rate;" Powell holding firm on 2% inflation goal. The real impact of more debt on economic growth: There is a negative multiplier. Hurricane Idalia & The Broken Window Theory; pulling forward consumption. Earnings & Economic Report previews; noting the shift from "Meta" mentions to "AI" in earnings reports. Parsing Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech: blaming Ukraine war for inflation, with no mention of inflationary effect of stimulus money flooding the economy. The arsonist gets the Nobel Prize for putting out the fire. Has the Fed already broken something? Dollar General reports 16% decline: Has Dollar General become the 84-cent Store? The Lag Effect is evident in consumer spending; there are two stories: Gov't Data vs on the street data. Resumption of Student Loan payments & Sally Mae notices. What happens to small- and mid-cap companies when loans come due in a higher-rate environment? Investors are hiding in mega-cap companies flush w cash and low-rate debt. SEG-1: GDP on the rise, GDI in Decline SEG-2: Defining the Fed's "Neutral Rate" SEG-3: Earnings & Economic Reports Preview; Jerome Powell's blame for Inflation SEG-4: Dollar General drops 16%: Lag Effect is Evident Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWmqq-Eqr2o&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will September Weakness Return?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6H_9akXBRrU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Markets Cleared Resistance" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1UKs7gc6TE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=18s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Inflation And Deficits And QT, Oh My -Part 2" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/inflation-and-deficits-and-qt-oh-my-part-2 "10 Best Days – A Meme For Every Bull Market" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/10-best-days-a-meme-for-every-bull-market/ "Deficit Surge Will Lead To Lower Rates, Not Higher" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/deficit-surge-will-lead-to-lower-rates-not-higher/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #JeromePowell #FederalReserve #HurricaneIdalia #EconomicImpact #MarketRally #InterestRates #NeutralRate #Inflation #BrokenWindowTheory #Markets #Money #Investing
(8/31/23) Markets have had four days of advancing action following a 5% correction; markets are not yet back to extreme over-bought conditions. There is still some room in this rally to get the S&P back up to around 4,600. September tends to be a historically weak month...but, when August has had a reversal of July's gains, September tends to be a positive month. On average. For now, the data suggests that market momentum will carry on for the next several days. Be sure to check out this weekend's newsletter for a more in-depth review of what we see happening, and what we're expecting in September. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6H_9akXBRrU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #MarketHigh #MovingAverages #20DMA #50DMA #200DMA #MarketRally #Money #Investing
(8/30/23) There will be some short-term economic benefit from the landfall of Hurricane Idalia in Florida--a momentary boost from damage repairs spending. Economic data has been coming in better-than-expected (because estimates had been lowered); bad news is good news again, in hopes the Fed will lower rates. Markets on Tuesday cleared resistance at the 20- and 50-DMA's; mid- and small-company bankruptcies are on the rise as lag effect of higher interest rates sets in. A recent survey reveals 25% of young respondents' life goals are to be a "social media influencer." What would you do with a financial windfall? Economic report preview; there's been no gain in the market ex- the 7 stocks driving activity. Bankruptcies are on the rise in smaller companies; there are 10 prescription drugs up for price negotiation with Medicare. Look for hidden details in the Inflation Reduction Act (like a disable switch for EV's!) Old Cars, Old Guys, and Retirement. 8 things you need to know about Estate Planning, including how to divvy-up the assets, two kinds of accounts, life insurance, and long term care. SEG-1: The Short-term Economic Impact of Hurricane Idalia SEG-2: What Do You Want to Be When You Grow Up? SEG-3: Economic Report Preview: Old Cars, Old Guys, & Retirement SEG-4: 8 Things You Need to Know About Estate Planning Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1UKs7gc6TE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=18s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets are Hopeful as Data Declines" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1ozy4sE7LA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The "Do Whatever it Takes" Economy" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvIarQfZHOI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "10 Best Days – A Meme For Every Bull Market" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/10-best-days-a-meme-for-every-bull-market/ "Deficit Surge Will Lead To Lower Rates, Not Higher" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/deficit-surge-will-lead-to-lower-rates-not-higher/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #HurricaneIdalia #EconomicImpact #MarketRally #InterestRates #Inflation #EstatePlanning #Markets #Money #Investing
(8/30/23) Economic data has been "better than expected." Markets cleared the 20- and 50-DMA Tuesday, surpassing resistance to get back to previous highs. The MACD buy-signal was triggered; the market is somewhat overbought, so expect a bit of a pullback today following yesterday's 1.5% rally. However, this is still a very much bifurcated market, with Tuesday's rally almost entirely in the mega-cap stocks, which are flush with cash. (Bankruptcies were up 71% last month among smaller companies, as higher interest rates began to really weigh on more highly leveraged companies.) This is not a market that is equally built across all sectors. Most of the risk in the market now is in these small- and mid-cap companies. The strategy now is to chase stocks that have the least risk of bankruptcy. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1ozy4sE7LA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #MarketHigh #MovingAverages #20DMA #50DMA #200DMA #MarketRally #Money #Investing
(8/29/23) Hurricane Idalia is bearing down on Florida; will there be epic adventure stories from Florida Man? Will markets "catch-up" to economic data, or will the data begin to prove-out market optimism? Will there be a recession (still) or a soft-landing? Market rallies; more positive action to come? Challenging the 20- and 50-DMA: Have markets achieved highs for 2023? Factors that drive markets: Politics, geo-politics, economics, sentiment; What will be the impact of Student Loan Payment resumption? AI is estimated to replace 300-million jobs; what will be economic impact? What are the arguments driving markets? Markets are voting machines & weighing machines. Money in motion creates fees; long-term investors vs traders; importance of knowing the difference. The weight of reality vs FOMO & investor sentiment; when does the weight start to set-in? Debt service is diverting revenue from economic growth. The Fed is stuck between high rates and high inflation. How home builders are revising house plans to meet buyer realities. As goes China, so goes others' economies. Example of economic failure: China's empty cities & transportation systems = artificial growth. No one is using them. The "beauty" Socialism and Communism is always undone by human nature. Do we really want a "Do Whatever it Takes" economy? Why Baby Boomers are the luckiest generation alive: slotted into time period with remarkable market gains. Why are we afraid of recession? SEG-1: Hurricanes & Florida Man; Will Markets Catch-up to Economic Data? SEG-2: Has the Market Hit its High for the Year? SEG-3: The Weight of Reality vs FOMO & Investor Sentiment SEG-4: Do We Really Want a "Do Whatever It takes" Economy? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvIarQfZHOI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Have Markets Set the High for the Year?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AbzKie4F5Kk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Will September Be Better than August?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2Mq_Rp1_yA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=11s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "10 Best Days – A Meme For Every Bull Market" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/10-best-days-a-meme-for-every-bull-market/ "Deficit Surge Will Lead To Lower Rates, Not Higher" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/deficit-surge-will-lead-to-lower-rates-not-higher/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #HurricaneIdalia #MarketRally #FOMO #InvestorSentiment #Socialism #Communism #HumanNature #BabyBoomers #InterestRates #Inflation #China #LAgEffect #ESG #Blackrock #Markets #Money #Investing
(8/29/23) Markets a bullish and condensed, earnings estimates are still on the rise, and everyone is expecting things will be better, going forward. Last month's correction has not taken away from the bullish exuberance in the markets. Markets continued to rally on Monday, and a few more days' positive action will turn the MACD Sell signal into a buy signal. Markets today will challenge the 20- and 50-DMA, currently sitting atop one another. If those levels can be achieved, then markets can move higher. The question now is, have markets already set their high-point for the year? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AbzKie4F5Kk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #MarketHigh #MovingAverages #20DMA #50DMA #200DMA #MarketRally #Money #Investing
(8/28/23) AOC to ban Donald Trump Mug shot glasses? Capitalism at its best. The NVDIA aftermath. More supplemental funding for vaccines: Follow the money. Defining capitalism. Markets having a sloppy month: is better performance ahead? Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech: Blaming Ukraine war for inflation (!) A review of how we measure core inflation. What Powell left out of his speech; "Navigating under cloudy skies." Still plenty of risk despite market performance. No significant downturn ahead (the problem with lagging indicators. Things to watch out for: 3-5% correction was needed, to be followed by rally. Earnings expectations are coming down for 2024. China's impact on US economy. Biden's curbs on Chinese chip components. (That we're talking about these possibilities means markets are already adjusting for these.) The lag effect of Fed rate hikes are still to be felt; September is typically a weak month, but not as much if August is weak also. More ESG nonsense: The number of ESG ideas owned by Blackrock are becoming fewer; companies in ESG movement are not doing well. Disney is now trading at a 9-year low; Busch, Target: Not selling what consumers want. Visiting Disney: No crowds! SEG-1: Donald Trump Mug shot glasses & Capitalism: Follow the money! SEG-2: Jerome Powell's Nothing Burger: Rate Hikes ending sooner than later SEG-3: Things to Watch Out For: What Could Cause Problems? SEG-4: More ESG Nonsense Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2Mq_Rp1_yA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=11s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Is Better Market Performance Ahead?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXXP8QjlbKk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Five Steps to Retirement in Five Years" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEmSHUz_658&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Deficit Surge Will Lead To Lower Rates, Not Higher" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/deficit-surge-will-lead-to-lower-rates-not-higher/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #JacksonHole #JeromePowell #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #China #LAgEffect #ESG #Blackrock #Markets #Money #Investing
(8/28/23) This has been a rare month in August, with the S&P unable to string together more than two positive days in a row. The sell-signal has gotten pretty over-sold, at this point, and the market is starting to flatten out, basing at teh 100-DNA. Relative strength is improving, suggesting a little more "push" in the markets over the next week or so, and it would appear things could improve in September. China's economy and the dollar rally, as well as interest rates will affect the US economy by year's end. The emerging lag effect of higher rates on credit card payments and other loans will also impact consumer spending into the end of the year. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXXP8QjlbKk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #SloppyAugust #China #LagEffect #INterestRates #MarketRally #MovingAverages #20DMA #50DMA #200DMA #MarketRally #Money #Investing
(8/25/23) Markets await comments today from Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole confab; inflation is not going away, and is affecting financial planning: What is your risk tolerance now? Five steps to retirement in five years: What's your number? Healthcare expenses; Medicare mistakes to avoid; Reducing debt (what is your debt costing you?); What are your savings rates? Budgeting and knowing income stream sourcing. Why and when are more workers calling-in sick? Managing guaranteed income, and ramping up risk. Refining retirement goals; discovering what retirement really looks like. Should you put funds in Roth 401k? SEG-1: Inflation Is Not Going Away SEG-2: Five Steps to Retirement in Five Years, Pt-1 SEG-3: Five Steps to Retirement in Five Years, Pt-2 SEG-4: Calling in Sick; Managing Money in Retirement Hosted by RIA Advisors Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP, w Senior Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEmSHUz_658&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Battle with Cluster of Resistance" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QQeitp8yzQ&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Will Jerome Powell Address Markets at Jackson Hole?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgaYJ7Hfdk8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=78s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Bond Traders And Their Bearish Stories" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-traders-and-their-bearish-stories "Stock Market Rally Coming? And Investing In 2024" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/stock-market-rally-coming-and-investing-in-2024/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #JacksonHole #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #Retirement #Roth #Markets #Money #Investing
(8/24/23) NVDIA's earnings report blows off the doors; market action will be driven by this news today. But NVDIA outlook is for slower growth moving forward. The company is fast on track to be as big if not bigger than Microsoft. Meanwhile, Wall Street is starting to ratchet down estimates for 2024, approaching reality. Can the S&P clear 4,400 with seasonal weakness still ahead? The Jackson Hole Preview: former Fed Gov. Bullard sees economic growth as a threat, requiring higher interest rates; Fed forecast; Higher for Longer. Will Jerome Powell address the "Neutral Rate" (2%) thesis? The Fed always expects stronger growth, but... Bond Bulls vs Bears: Debt creates growth as it is spent, but becomes a net drag on economic growth; the trend of growth is slowing. Markets are hopeful for a positive Fed, with rate cuts next year. What will be the impact of AI on productivity and the economy? Same effect as the World Wide Web: Productivity growth continues to slip; the threat of AI: Replacing high-wage earning jobs, reducing labor multiplier effect. The markets' rally is narrow; where do we go from here? The Mega Cap differential; how higher rates will affect earnings. Will Powel address the stock markets; is 3% inflation "good enough?" SEG-1: NVDIA Blows Off the Doors SEG-2: Jackson Hole Preview SEG-3: What's the Impact of AI on Economy & Productivity? SEG-4: The Narrow Market Rally: Where do we go from here? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgaYJ7Hfdk8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=78s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Battle with Cluster of Resistance" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QQeitp8yzQ&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What Do Rising Treasury Yields Mean?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQzn4n7QHjw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=6s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Bond Traders And Their Bearish Stories" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-traders-and-their-bearish-stories "Stock Market Rally Coming? And Investing In 2024" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/stock-market-rally-coming-and-investing-in-2024/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #NVDIA #JacksonHole #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #AI #Markets #Money #Investing
(8/24/23) Markets have been very oversold, and there is great anticipation for a rally as markets approach a cluster of resistance at the convergence of the 50-DMA and 20-DMA sitting in top of each other. If the S&P can get above 4,440, that will clear the way for a retest of the highs set back in July, but does not necessarily mean this season of correction is over. The seasonal, summer weakness, however, could create choppy conditions as these forces do battle. The market bifurcation continues between the S&P 500 and other indexes, like the Small Cap and Mid Cap indexes. So this is really a concentrated rally, as money is going to a select few stocks. Following its blow-out report, NVDIA will be the market driver today. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QQeitp8yzQ&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketCorrection #MovingAverages #20DMA #50DMA #200DMA #MarketRally #NVDIA #TechSector #Money #Investing
(8/23/23) It's NVDIA Report Day: The NVDIA Drinking Game: How many times will they mention, "AI?" Economic data & the Citi Economic Surprise Index. Manufacturing data is not improving; what happens on the Services side? Dick's, Nike, Target, et al earnings and outlooks not good; WalMart & Kohl's are okay. Markets rally and sell-off Tuesday. The Barbie Movie: To see or not to see? What's the implication behind rise in Treasury yields: higher real rates & expectations for direction in rates; expectation for no recession and stronger economic growth for next several years (are they right?) Refilling the SPR: How will that affect inflation? (It won't): How CPI is calculated. The cost of electric & water utilities: How we measure personal inflation. Are we spending too much on our kids' extra-curricular activities? Parents spending themselves into bankruptcy, and then must rely on children for support in retirement. Former Fed Gov James Bullard believes stronger economic growth will require higher interest rates. SEG-1: The NVDIA Drinking Game & Economic Data SEG-2: The Barbie Movie & The Meaning Behind the Rise in Treasury Yields SEG-3: Inflation & The SPR, and the Cost of Keeping Cool SEG-4: Why Kids Are Expensive; James Bullard Goes for Broke Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQzn4n7QHjw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=6s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Can Markets Hold Onto Highs?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76sWZr6xbYE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What's in Store for 2024?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTfxWEwyWpk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Stock Market Rally Coming? And Investing In 2024" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/stock-market-rally-coming-and-investing-in-2024/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #NVDIA #TreasuryYields #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #CPI #PersonalInflation #BarbieMovie #Markets #Money #Investing
(8/23/23) Markets rallied a bit on Tuesday before selling off by the close; nothing out of the ordinary. Futures this morning are pointing higher, and an ideal situation would be for markets to close higher today. Markets are still trying to push up resistance to where the 20- and 50-DMA converge, but we're still on a sell signal at this point; that signal is starting to flatten. This suggests we could be close to working out the over-bought condition. Caution and patience are the watchwords at this point; avoid any knee-jerk reactions. The big bear market is not coming back here; markets are just having a much-needed correction, and this may provide you with an opportunity to add money to certain sectors. Watch the news for NVDIA's report today; a big miss will weigh heavily on the tech sector. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76sWZr6xbYE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketCorrection #MovingAverages #20DMA #50DMA #200DMA #MarketRally #NVDIA #TechSector #Money #Investing
(8/22/23) All eyes are on NVDIA's report and the fulfilment(?) of 50% sales increase promises. Sustainability of growth numbers will be key. Fed governors are holding Jackson Hole prelude meetings. VIX has been creeping upward; markets correction of 5%; higher close on Monday, but no buy signal yet triggered. Expect another pullback prior to setting up for October rally; commodities are a concern. What's in store for 2024: A history of normal market oscillations. Volatility is the toll we pay for investing. The set-up for a market rally is in place, but there's no guarantee it will occur. Where best to invest in 2024: How sectors roll in- and-out-of-favor. Winners & Losers this year: Where might they be next year? Logical rotation into interest rate-sensitive sectors: Laggards to leaders, leaders to laggards. Earnings preview, economic data preview: Consumer-focused stocks. Strong results vs what the government says. Outlook going forward (and holiday shopping) will be key. Existing Home Sales: What the numbers really mean; the problem with annualized numbers. The real worry will be deflation. SEG-1: Can Earnings Growth Rate Be Sustained? SEG-2: What's in Store for 2024? SEG-3: Where Best to Invest in 2024 SEG-4: Earnings & Economic Data Preview; The Problem with Annualized Numbers Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTfxWEwyWpk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Setting Up for October Action" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xekP5Q3tQA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=2 ------- Our previous show is here: "Should Parents Pay for Kids' Vacations?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnhtsmE4Pqo&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "As Rates Rise, Why I Personally Doubled Down On Bonds" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ "A Recession Is Coming, Or Is It?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/a-recession-is-coming-or-is-it/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketVolatility #MarketRally #JacksonHole #JeromePowell #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Markets #Money #Investing
(8/22/23) Markets have had a nice, 5% sell off, as expected (and completely normal within any given year). Markets on Monday got within a stone's throw of the 100-DMA before rallying, and we're looking today for a continuation of that rally effort. So far, no buy signal has yet been triggered. The next point of resistance will be the convergence of the 20- and 50-DMA, somewhere around 4,450. After that a pullback, which will provide a decent opportunity to add exposure to portfolios, and finish this cycle of correction, probably sometime in September. That will set up for the typical October-November-December market action. Watch for a pick-up in volatility during this period, ahead of the end-of-the-year push. Underperforming hedge funds will also push assets into the markets. How the timing of all this actually plays out remains to be seen. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xekP5Q3tQA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=2 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketCorrection #MovingAverages #20DMA #50DMA #200DMA #MarketRally #Money #Investing
(8/21/23) Back to School & The Rocky Racoon Saga comes to a close; Jackson Hole preview: Will Powell change his stance? Could the Markets correct some more? MACD Oscillation is consistent with bullish market trend. Should parents pay for kids' vacation? The difference between sense of entitlement and sense of responsibility. The 401k Millionaire Report: Up 13%. A look at the numbers (reality): 1% of 401k are $1-Million+; average balance is $112k; median balance is $65k. Market Preview: Reflexive rally = opportunity to trim risk; we're still awaiting the impact of The Lag Effect of interest rate hikes, and the bite it's going to take out of the economy. The Greater Fool Theory: the willingness of buyers to pay a higher price...until they're not. Why NVDIA is over-priced for now. SEG-1: Back to School & Jackson Hole Preview SEG-2: Should Your Parents Pay for Your Vacation? SEG-3: Why "More" 401k Millionaires is no big deal SEG-4: Waiting on the Lag Effect & The Greater Fool Theory Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnhtsmE4Pqo&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Finding Opportunity in Market Correction" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFyFGs-MIxY&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Are Mandatory Savings Ahead?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0wBfWpCvQmo&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "As Rates Rise, Why I Personally Doubled Down On Bonds" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ "A Recession Is Coming, Or Is It?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/a-recession-is-coming-or-is-it/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #JacksonHole #JeromePowell #FederalReserve #InterestRates #LagEffect #401kMillionaires #Vacation #Entitlement #Responsibility #Markets #Money #Investing
(8/21/23) More market correction is possible, but not likely without a reflexive rally first. Following market peaks in July, we forecast an overdue correction. Last week saw the completion of a 5% correction, and now retesting support at the 100-DMA. This is not only normal, but expected behavior in any given year. Could the market correct further? Sure, but likely not without some bit of a reflexive rally (which may be little more than an over-sold bounce). Bullish sentiment in July has now tapered to a more neutral mood. The fuel for a bit of a rally over the next few days is now in place, and this would provide an opportunity to trim portfolios and reduce risk. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFyFGs-MIxY&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketCorrection #MovingAverages #20DMA #50DMA #200DMA #MarketRally #Money #Investing
(8/18/23) Market over-exuberance is now letting off steam; high interest rates are likely here to stay for a while. WalMart results reflecting more traffic from upper-income households suffering impact of inflation. The Peak-65 retirement trend shows less than half of retirees have less than $100k in investible funds; states moving to automatic savings into Roth IRA's; the downside of state-sponsored savings plans: Who administers/custodian? Looking for deflation: Prices aren't coming down, but the rate of increase is slowing; the Fed likely has two more rate hikes in store. "Shift-up:" More unemployment claims coming from upper-income earners. How long can this last with the chipping away of fiscal responsibility? Impact on investors: frustration in diversified portfolios. Why you need a 10% pullback in markets (and what has happened to all the AI hype-narratives?) Pet Medical Care & Willingness of 78% to go into debt for pet health. The importance of setting up pet healthcare goals in financial plans. Pet care insurance (Healthy Paws) and importance of understanding stipulations & how to handle claims. I have no idea why we ended up talking about Brittney Spears' divorce at the end. That's just bizarre. SEG-1: Over-exuberant Markets Letting off Steam SEG-2: Mandatory Retirement Savings; Boon or Bust? SEG-3: The Shift-up in Higher Income Unemployment SEG-4: Pet Medical Care & Pet Debt Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0wBfWpCvQmo&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Flirting with Moving Averages" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFhjvXPbEW4&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Are We There, Yet?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI4qz_yWo1s&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles mentioned in this report: Government Bonds Or Stocks? Which Is A Better Choice Now? https://realinvestmentadvice.com/government-bonds-or-stocks-which-is-a-better-choice-now/ "The Market Is Detached From The Real Economy" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-market-is-detached-from-the-real-economy/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #RetirementSavings #PetHealthcare #Unemployment #Peak65 #RetailSales #FedTarget #Bonds #USTreasuries #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Markets #Money #Investing
(8/17/23) The Atlanta Fed is now predicting GDP growth at 5.8% for the 3rd quarter, and another rate increase is expected as liquidity continues to move through the system. The S&P needs to get above 50-DMA; correction is normal, and the bullish trend continues. Target vs WalMart: A tale of two retailers. Consumer sentiment is better; no Recession coming? FOMC meeting minutes reveal more rate hikes to come, but Fed's views are mixed. Keeping a hawkish tone while allowing lag effect to play out. What will be a Black Swan Event? The saga of the Roberts' Racoon continues; the Yeti casket; why have markets been rallying? Does this now set-up for Recession? The Lag Effect is real. Consumers and Corporate were preparing for higher rates by buying houses at low rates and borrowing when money was cheap. The Lag Effect is more "laggy" than expected. Important to pay attention to warning signs, like credit spreads. Will the Fed raise rates again? What's the best long-term strategy for investors? Is this time different for bond holders, as Economy is climbing out of declines? No: Too much unproductive debt outstanding. SEG-1: GDP Growth Predictions = 5.8% SEG-2: Fed Views are Mixed: Hawkish but Waiting SEG-3: Rocky Racoon, Yeti Caskets, the Lag Effect is Real SEG-4: The Ingredients of Recession Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI4qz_yWo1s&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Flirting with Moving Averages" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFhjvXPbEW4&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Will the Fed Raise Inflation Target to 3%?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cXKZz7QHTg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: Government Bonds Or Stocks? Which Is A Better Choice Now? https://realinvestmentadvice.com/government-bonds-or-stocks-which-is-a-better-choice-now/ "The Market Is Detached From The Real Economy" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-market-is-detached-from-the-real-economy/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #RetailSales #FedTarget #Bonds #USTreasuries #FederalReserve #InterestRates #JacksonHole #EarningsSeason #Recession #FinancialCrisis #WealthInequality #Markets #Money #Investing
(8/17/23) Can markets reclaim the 50-DMA and negate its breakage of that support level? Yesterday's downside close was probably the break we were looking for. Markets are oversold, and a rally back to the 50-DMA that fails will set up for a re-test of the 100-DMA. This is a normal correction within any bull market rally. Moving averages are now catching up to the market, and prices are coming down towards a convergence with the moving averages. Earnings and underlying data have been okay this year, thus far. The recent uptick in rates is now weighing on markets, financials in particular, but really nothing to worry about, as the corrective process is normal. This may provide you with a buying opportunity in some areas that are now beaten down. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFhjvXPbEW4&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketCorrection #MovingAverages #20DMA #50DMA #200DMA #MarketRally #Money #Investing
(8/16/23) The continuing saga of Rocky Racoon at the Roberts' house; Retail Sales are still strong; the Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast calls for 5% growth = Inflation is still present, so no rate cuts from the Fed: Markets sell off. Will the Fed raise its Inflation Target to 3%? Economic Data sees no Recession, and more rate hikes are possibility. Markets break the 50-DMA and need to recover by week's end. Market & Data report preview: Bob Doll's Five Questions answered by Lance & Danny. Bullishness vs Bearishness; Bonds & Interest Rates; will there be a soft landing or recession; is this a bank-buying opportunity? A new tune from a listener (thanks, Sean Smith!) Still looking for a market pullback; how to minimize downside risk. Longterm outlook & what to do with cash? Cutting Social Security: it's a demographics & math problem. We need population growth thru having more kids & merit-based immigration. Dealing with the gap between how we think we should be living vs how we ought to be living. SEG-1: Racoon Saga, Retail Sales, & New Fed Target? SEG-2: Eco Data Preview; Bob Doll's Five Questions SEG-3: Still Looking for a Market Pullback: How to Minimize Risk SEG-4: Cutting Social Security: Demographics & Math Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show, on our YouTube channel: -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Setting Up to Rally" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ei2UQVm7wt8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Are Bonds a Better Choice Now?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBG76wVGnfg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: Government Bonds Or Stocks? Which Is A Better Choice Now? https://realinvestmentadvice.com/government-bonds-or-stocks-which-is-a-better-choice-now/ "The Market Is Detached From The Real Economy" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-market-is-detached-from-the-real-economy/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #RetailSales #FedTarget #Bonds #USTreasuries #FederalReserve #InterestRates #JacksonHole #EarningsSeason #Recession #FinancialCrisis #WealthInequality #Markets #Money #Investing
(8/16/23) Markets broke the 50-DMA Tuesday, but that's not necessarily dire news. However, if the market fails to get above the 50-DMA, the next logical support level will be the 100-DMA at about 4,270 on the S&P. Markets are getting oversold. The MACD oscillation is getting back to levels which normally exist during bullish markets. Markets are getting set up for a rally for at least a couple of days, and after that, our expectation is for more consolidation in the markets possibly into September. That would set up markets for an October rally into the end of the year. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ei2UQVm7wt8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketCorrection #MovingAverages #20DMA #50DMA #200DMA #MarketRally #Money #Investing
(8/15/23) Texas Heat & a trapped racoon (the saga continues...) Is Inflation on the rise again? Earnings estimates growth are predicated on no Recession; could the Fed raise its target inflation rate to 3%? Markets bounce off the 50-DMA, again; what is the risk from Jackson Hole meetings? What's the best bet for investors, now: Stocks or Bonds? Why own bonds now: The disconnect between the markets and the economy cannot last. What Bonds to buy? Retail Sales expected to show .2% gain (x 12-months = 2.3% inflation expectations. There's still lots of liquidity in the system, so any recession (inevitable) is going to take time. Winding up earnings season; economic data is not strong. SEG-1: Texas Heat & Trapped Racoons; Is Inflation on the Rise Again? SEG-2: Best Bet: Stocks or Bonds? SEG-3: Why Own Bonds? SEG-4: What Bonds to Buy? Winding Up Earnings Season Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show, on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBG76wVGnfg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Downside Risk Ahead of Jackson Hole?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvwK7uluIGE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Why the Fed Will Cut Rates" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lL8L9O9ZP-E&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: Government Bonds Or Stocks? Which Is A Better Choice Now? https://realinvestmentadvice.com/government-bonds-or-stocks-which-is-a-better-choice-now/ "The Market Is Detached From The Real Economy" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-market-is-detached-from-the-real-economy/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Bonds #USTreasuries #FederalReserve #InterestRates #JacksonHole #EarningsSeason #Recession #FinancialCrisis #WealthInequality #Markets #Money #Investing
(8/15/23) Markets bounced right off the 50-DMA Monday in an initial test of support in consolidation of correction activity. But futures are opening a bit weaker this morning for yet another test of the 50-DMA, which markets need to hold if they're going to continue this consolidation process. The MACD oscillation is almost complete, turning the sell signal into a buy signal. When that happens, we can then more safely increase exposure in areas we want to be in. Downside risk still exists ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting, and the chances Jerome Powell could say something to spooks markets. Meanwhile, the MACD is still elevated, needing to get back below zero and into an over-sold condition for much better buying opportunities. Patience will be your friend as markets work through this process. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Market Is Detached From The Real Economy" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-market-is-detached-from-the-real-economy/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvwK7uluIGE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketCorrection #MovingAverages #20DMA #50DMA #200DMA #DownsideRisk #JacksonHole #JeromePowell #Money #Investing
(8/14/23) August means hot weather in Texas, and the conclusion of earnings season, with a re-focusing on economic data. A burning question at the upcoming Jackson Hole rich guys' confab: What will it take for the Fed to lower rates? Profit margins are lower, but holding; Markets test 50-DMA and bounce. The real Fed funds rate; why the Fed would cut rates: Recession or crisis (the Fed WILL cut rates, just needs a reason). The Saga of the Roberts' Racoon; What happens next with a data-dependent Fed? Data is little more than guesses; statistical samples are taken as gospel. The trend of data is more important than The Number. A discussion of wealth inequality vs personal financial responsibility: How to build wealth 1.) start a business, grow it, and sell it; 2.) Savings. Rule #1.: Never borrow from retirement savings. SEG-1: Refocusing on Economic Data SEG-2: Jackson Hole Confab Preview SEG-3: Roberts' Racoon; The Fed's Next Move SEG-4: Wealth Inequality vs Personal Financial Habits: How to Build Wealth Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show, on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lL8L9O9ZP-E&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Can Markets Bounce Back?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrYwLlbxHUk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Minimizing the Chances of Dying Poor" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNSSuF6uJ94&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Stimulus and Consumption Are Fueling Economic Resilience" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ "The Market Is Detached From The Real Economy" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-market-is-detached-from-the-real-economy/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #InterestRates #JacksonHole #EarningsSeason #Recession #FinancialCrisis #WealthInequality #Markets #Money #Investing
(8/14/23) Markets came down on Friday, testing the 50-DMA and bounced and closed slightly higher than the previous low. Futures this morning look a little bit higher, and the question today is whether or not we can hold onto those gains. Markets are oversold, but not excessively so, and a rally today would not be surprising. A rally above the 20-DMA would signal an end to this correctional process. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Market Is Detached From The Real Economy" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-market-is-detached-from-the-real-economy/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VoIz-k7b9m4&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketCorrection #MovingAverages #20DMA #50DMA #200DMA #Money #Investing
(8/11/23) The Summer Malaise (and associated heat) continues, with no Recession: Looking for a market pullback. This is not a normal economic cycle; what will holiday spending reveal? The impact of AI on productivity. Preparing against the worst possible outcome: Are you Spick or Kirk (or George Costanza)? Why the 4% Rule is wrong. The Wisdom of William Bernstein; minimizing the chances of dying poor. The new PE Ratio: Price to Emotion; dealing with longevity risk. Podcast preview and summer heat: Secure Act changes to IRA's: Why Roth is important to the IRS: They want your money now. Seg-1: Summer Malaise & No Recession SEG-2: Are You Prepared for the Worst? SEG-3: Minimizing Chances of Dying Poor SEG-4: Podcast Preview; Secure Act Changes to IRA's Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show, on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNSSuF6uJ94&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Why Bonds Are Best Bet" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrYwLlbxHUk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What Happens if Inflation Ticks-up?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hI8G4pWDMr8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Stimulus and Consumption Are Fueling Economic Resilience" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ "The Market Is Detached From The Real Economy" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-market-is-detached-from-the-real-economy/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Retirement #SecureAct #DyingPoor #LongevityRisk #WilliamBernstein #AI #Productivity #Markets #Money #Investing
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