The Real Investment Show Podcast

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It's a show about life, markets, sweat-equity, and the pursuit of wealth in a capitalist market.

Lance Roberts


    • Sep 30, 2026 LATEST EPISODE
    • daily NEW EPISODES
    • 26m AVG DURATION
    • 3,472 EPISODES


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    Latest episodes from The Real Investment Show Podcast

    9-30-26 Q&A Wednesday: What's Holding Up the Market?

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 30, 2026 47:49


    The major indexes remain near record territory, but beneath the surface, the picture is considerably more complicated. Technology continues to provide important support while market breadth has weakened, Treasury yields remain elevated, and small- and mid-cap stocks have faced greater pressure. Meanwhile, investors are weighing the Federal Reserve's latest rate hike, higher bond yields, oil prices, stretched areas of the market, Nvidia's massive stock buyback, and questions about whether Technology can continue carrying so much of the market's weight. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff take your questions directly from the YouTube live chat and discuss what these developments could mean for markets, portfolios, interest rates, bonds, retirement planning, and the economy. 0:00 - INTRO 0:56 - Last day of the Quarter; Friday is Employment Day 2:18 - JOLTS Report - Labor Hoarding 6:10 - Markets Continue to Consolidate; Breadth is Very Weak 7:51 - The Set up for a Year End Rally 10:46 - When you're right...and keeping score 13:00 - Cash on Hand? 13:46 - Investor Sentiment Then & Now 15:27 - What about Utilities Now? 16:20 - RSP vs SPY? 17:24 - Interest Rate Sensitive Small- & Mid-caps? 19:08 - When Trading Patterns Fail? (chart) 22:15 - Can You Remember a Time when the US Has Been This Resilient? (yes) 25:40 - Data Center Growth Projections to 2040 27:48 - When do We Know When the Bond Market Crashes? (Why does the Fed hike rates?) (chart) 32:38 - Taking Advantage of Rate Environment to Buy a House 35:34 - Collateralized Loan Obligations as Investments: Know the quality of underlying loans 37:13 - Is Now a Good Time to Invest in REITS? 39:57 - Total Cost of a House Over Time? (What the Real American Dream is...) 42:13 - What is a Qualified Dividend (AMLP & Buying Dividend Companies) 43:44 - The Three Legs of a Portfolio 45:11 - Bumping Up 401k Contributions ==== Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's "Before the Bell" report, "Market Breadth Sends a Warning " https://youtu.be/YR2WHQHpryU ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/BSygFM2sS7Y -------- Watch our previous show, "Stop Trying to Beat the Market" https://youtu.be/_m7uSDmtseI ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #MarketBreadth #SP500 #Investing #MarketOutlook #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MarketOutlook #Bonds

    9-30-26 Market Breadth Sends a Warning | Before the Bell

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 30, 2026 4:00


    Markets remain stuck in consolidation, but beneath the major indexes, the picture looks considerably weaker. Only about 40% of stocks are trading above their 50-day moving averages, while small-caps, mid-caps, utilities, real estate, and financials have faced significant pressure. At the same time, the growing number of stocks hitting 52-week lows and falling below key moving averages may be pushing market breadth toward more extreme levels. Historically, those conditions can become contrarian signals as selling pressure becomes extended. As investors head into the fourth quarter, rising earnings estimates, the return of corporate buybacks, available market liquidity, and increasingly negative sentiment could provide support for a year-end rally. That does not guarantee one. Lance Roberts explains why investors should watch what is happening beneath the indexes and avoid becoming overly risk-averse as Q4 begins. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/YR2WHQHpryU --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #MarketBreadth #SP500 #Investing #MarketOutlook

    9-29-26 Stop Trying to Beat the Market

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 29, 2026 48:52


    Can even the wealthiest investors consistently beat the market? Recent data comparing the Forbes 400 with the S&P 500 raises an important question about investment performance, indexing, and the pursuit of market-beating returns. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn examine why Americans across generations remain uncertain about their future financial needs, and what that says about the importance of planning beyond portfolio performance. Then, we put a real-world income decision under the microscope: a 5-year Multi-Year Guaranteed Annuity (MYGA) yielding 6% versus a 5-year U.S. Treasury yielding 5%. Is the additional yield worth the differences in liquidity, guarantees, taxes, and risk? 0:00 - INTRO 1:00 - National Coffee Day 1:55 - ISM Report/Dallas Fed: 4% GDP Growth? 4:02 - Earnings Season About to Begin/Market Seasonality Set up 6:20 - Markets Continue to Bore; very deceptive 7:54 - Reflexive Rally today? 9:36 - Where to bet on Markets' next move? 11:24 - National Coffee Day & Lance's Weekend Indulgence; Peanut Butter poll 15:15 - Kneejerk Reactions by Investors to Constantly Beat the Market (Fortune 400 vs S&P 500) 18:34 - When Investors Meddle with Portfolios 21:58 - How to Lose Money on a Bond 23:20 - When You're Down in a Position (and don't want to sell at a loss...) 25:49 - Is There a Strategy for Looking for under-valued bonds? 29:37 - Are there Concerns over Stability of US Treasury Market? (6% MYGA vs 5% Treasury) 36:51 - What about Brokered CD's? 39:31 - Managing a Portfolio for Maximum Tax Efficiency; Dealing with Taxes on Bonds 46:58 - Investor Optimism & Beating the Market - Investors Keep Less than the Funds They Own (chart) ==== Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's "Before the Bell" report, "What the S&P 500 Is Hiding," https://youtu.be/_m7uSDmtseI ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/rw1VkcLx91U -------- Watch our previous show, "Can the S&P 500 Really Reach 9,000?" https://youtube.com/live/6XwMMbygt6k ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Jefferies Sets 9000 Market Target: Everything Must Go Right" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/jefferies-sets-9000-target-for-market-everything-must-go-right/ "Investor Optimism Wins As An Investment Strategy" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investor-optimism-wins-as-an-investment-strategy/ "McDonald's At Four-Year Lows Isn't As Worrisome As Some Fear" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/mcdonalds-at-four-year-lows-isnt-as-worrisome-as-some-fear/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SP500 #StockMarket #MarketOutlook #Investing #Nvidia #FinancialPlanning #RetirementPlanning #Bonds #MYGA #PeanutButter

    9-29-26 What the S&P 500 Is Hiding | Before the Bell

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 29, 2026 4:15


    The S&P 500 may look calm, but beneath the surface, the market is telling a very different story. Small-caps, mid-caps, utilities, real estate, and parts of Technology have been under pressure, while heavyweight stocks such as Nvidia have helped support the market-cap-weighted indexes. With the S&P 500 sitting near its 20-DMA and still trapped in a consolidation range, that growing market dispersion deserves attention. But investors should be careful about reading too much into short-term price action. Month-end and quarter-end portfolio rebalancing can create unusual sector moves as managers sell recent winners and add to underweight positions. We explain what the market's underlying weakness may be signaling, why the next breakout from consolidation could matter, and how seasonality, corporate buybacks, earnings, and historical market trends could shape the final months of 2026. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/_m7uSDmtseI --- Articles mentioned in this report: "McDonald's At Four-Year Lows Isn't As Worrisome As Some Fear" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/mcdonalds-at-four-year-lows-isnt-as-worrisome-as-some-fear/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SP500 #StockMarket #MarketOutlook #Investing #Nvidia

    9-28-26 Can the S&P 500 Really Reach 9,000?

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 28, 2026 45:09


    Can the S&P 500 really reach 9,000? Jefferies has set a 9,000 target for the index by the end of 2027, but getting there may require nearly everything to go right. Lance Roberts examines the assumptions behind that forecast, including earnings growth, historically high profit margins, AI-driven capital spending, market valuations, and interest rates. With earnings estimates moving higher instead of following their typical pattern of downward revisions, Wall Street's outlook has become increasingly optimistic. But what happens if earnings growth slows, margins begin to mean-revert, AI spending fails to generate the expected returns, or Treasury yields remain elevated? We look beyond the headline target to examine the math, the risks, and what investors should consider when market expectations leave little room for disappointment. 0:00 - INTRO 0:53 - End of Quarter Prep 2:00 - October tends to be strong in mid-term election years 4:05 - If you're starting to feel bearish...Markets are sitting near all-time highs 9:41 - Baylor Fathers' Weekend, Hope for the Future, and Coffee Coming... 16:50 - Iran Conflict continues; oil prices remain elevated 18:26 - Economic numbers continue strong (charts) despite higher interest rates 23:01 - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (chart) 24:37 - We're not Recessionary yet - Disinflationary action is coming 26:40 - When does consumer cushion run out? 27:53 - Positive effects of Cap-ex spending 29:30 - Effects of Cap spending (Why not everyone wants a WalMart...) 32:57 - Can the S&P Really Reach 9,000? 35:57 - Estimates Usually Fall 37:09 - Earnings are Breaking Above 90-year Ceiling, and rising... 38:17 - The Earnings Path has a Hole in it 39:25 - Not one Fed Official Sees a Downside to Growth 42:32 - What Has to Happen Next ==== Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's "Before the Bell" report, "Is a Major Market Rotation Coming?" https://youtu.be/O4vmRc0LypA ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/6XwMMbygt6k -------- Watch our previous show, "Will the Next Trade Be Bonds?" https://youtube.com/live/TeDizY1oNmY?feature=share ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Jefferies Sets 9000 Market Target: Everything Must Go Right" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/jefferies-sets-9000-target-for-market-everything-must-go-right/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRotation #TechnologyStocks #StockMarket #SectorRotation #Investing #SP500 #Investing #MarketOutlook #SP9000

    9-28-26 Is a Major Market Rotation Coming? | Before the Bell

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 28, 2026 4:02


    Markets are sitting near all-time highs, but underneath the surface, the picture looks very different. Technology and Energy have been leading while interest-rate-sensitive sectors, including Real Estate, Financials, Industrials, and Utilities, have come under pressure. That widening gap matters. Lance Roberts looks at market breadth, sector dispersion, rising interest rates, and why portfolios without heavy Technology or Energy exposure may be lagging the major indexes. Could the next move be a market rotation? We examine why extremely extended sectors could eventually give way to beaten-down areas of the market, what falling oil prices and interest rates could mean for that shift, and why investors may want to review concentrated winners as the fourth quarter approaches. Market rotations rarely happen on schedule, and today's dispersion could persist. But understanding where markets are overbought, oversold, and increasingly concentrated can help investors identify risks and potential opportunities heading toward year-end. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/O4vmRc0LypA --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRotation #TechnologyStocks #StockMarket #SectorRotation #Investing

    9-24 26 Will the Next Trade Be Bonds?

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 24, 2026 42:51


    With interest rates, inflation, oil prices, Treasury yields, and stock market valuations all competing for investors' attention, what should you be watching now? As the S&P 500 approaches record territory, can markets sustain a breakout, or are new risks beginning to emerge? Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff answer your questions from the YouTube live chat, and break down the economic, investing, and consumer stories shaping markets this week. We'll discuss what the latest economic and market signals could mean for stocks, bonds, portfolio positioning, retirement planning, and consumers, while separating short-term headlines from longer-term financial considerations. 0:00 - INTRO 1:02 - S&P Global Manufacturing Index showing rising costs 3:17 - Market is doing what September Markets do 7:29 - The Dollar is on a tear 9:27 - Coffee & Semi-Conductors 13:39 - S&P Global Manufacturing Index - Market over-reaction to nothing new 16:28 - Capitulation Event for Yields 17:50 - 5-Year Bond Auction - Failed or Poor? 24:01 - Why We Bought 5-year Treasuries 26:01 - The TINA Trade vs the TIGA Trade 32:43 - How We Build Bond Portfolios - ETF's vs Individual Bonds 35:42 - If Bonds Get Crushed 37:20 - Rooting for Gloom & Doom 40:00 - The Great Bond Massacre of 1068 40:57 - Fear in the Bond Market is Starting to Spread Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's "Before the Bell" report, "Why Your Portfolio May Be Lagging the S&P 500," https://youtu.be/H7TLBSsGh3M ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: -------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday: Rates, Risks, & Record Highs" https://youtube.com/live/TeDizY1oNmY?feature=share ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #SmallCaps #InterestRates #Investing #Bonds #BondMarket

    9-24-26 Why Your Portfolio May Be Lagging the S&P 500 | Before the Bell

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 24, 2026 5:01


    The S&P 500 remains trapped in a consolidation range, but the headline index may be hiding significant weakness beneath the surface. Small-cap, mid-cap, micro-cap, and equal-weighted stocks have come under pressure as higher interest rates, a stronger U.S. dollar, and signs of slower economic activity weigh on more rate-sensitive companies. Meanwhile, money has increasingly concentrated in large-cap and mega-cap stocks, creating a growing disconnect between the S&P 500 and the experience of investors holding individual stocks or broader market exposure. Lance Roberts explains why your portfolio may be lagging the major indexes, what weakening market breadth may be telling investors, and why increasingly oversold small- and mid-cap stocks could eventually set up a potential trade later this year. Plus, we look at the Dollar's recent surge, pressure on gold and commodities, and why higher interest rates are affecting much more of the stock market than the S&P 500 alone might suggest. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/H7TLBSsGh3M --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #SmallCaps #InterestRates #Investing

    9-23-26 Q&A Wednesday: Rates, Risks, & Record Highs

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 23, 2026 51:45


    With interest rates, inflation, oil prices, Treasury yields, and stock market valuations all competing for investors' attention, what should you be watching now? As the S&P 500 approaches record territory, can markets sustain a breakout, or are new risks beginning to emerge? Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff answer your questions from the YouTube live chat, and break down the economic, investing, and consumer stories shaping markets this week. We'll discuss what the latest economic and market signals could mean for stocks, bonds, portfolio positioning, retirement planning, and consumers, while separating short-term headlines from longer-term financial considerations. 0:00 - INTRO 1:08 - Trump - Xi Summit - Much ado about nothing 2:17 - Possible Export Ban on Diesel Exports? 3:35 - Earnings Growth Estimates are Very Large - That's a Risk 5:34 - Markets Hold Up Above Moving Averages 5:56 - Factor Rotation Model performance - VTV Value Index Under Pressure - MGK - Large Cap Growth Stocks proxy 9:48 - Fed Rate Hike Coordinated for Yen Carry Trade? (No, a martket-driven rate hike) 12:28 - Gold Correlation with Real Interest Rates 12:40 - Why Rotate into Financials? (Factor Rotation Model) 13:52 - How do Earnings Grow When the Middle Class is Getting Squeezed? (K-Shaped Economy) 16:58 - Stock Analysis: AMD (NOT a recommendation) 20:10 - Income Producing ETF's in Preparation for Retirement (JPQ) (NOT a Recommendation) 22:09 - Money Moving Out of Stocks into Fixed Income? (charts) 24:49- Tracking Forward Earnings Estimates Revisions 26:05 - Dealing with Gloom-and-Doom Narratives 30:07 - Series: Investing for the Long Term (link is below) 31:54 - Cryptocurrency-A (Tether) Holding US Treasuries; StableCoin, Solana 35:17 - How much Higher Will Rates Run this Year? 35:40 - M2 Correlation with Inflation? (All money is lent into existence) 37:18 - RSP vs SPY and Sector Rotation 38:22 - Late Year Market Dip Yet? 39:11 - Lance is rich and out of touch?? (There will always be the poor among us...) 44:16 - Where did this inflation come from? (We don't want deflation) 46:50 - How We're (really) Doing Financially (chart) 50:14 - What Danny Wears as Market Indicator Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's "Before the Bell" report, "Is Money Rotating From Growth to Value?," https://youtu.be/46Y-k5LfWxA ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/TeDizY1oNmY?feature=share -------- Watch our previous show, "Can Your Kids Afford to Invest Without You?" https://youtube.com/live/ewgHX5U7dEg ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show:" "Portfolio Risk Management: Winning The Long Game (Chapter 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/portfolio-risk-management-winning-the-long-game-chapter-5/ "K-Shaped Economy: Reality Or Media-Driven Perception" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/k-shaped-economy-reality-or-media-driven-perception/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #GrowthStocks #ValueStocks #MarketRotation #InterestRates #FederalReserve #Investing #RetirementPlanning

    9-23-26 Is Money Rotating From Growth to Value? | Before the Bell

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 23, 2026 3:35


    Is the market beginning to rotate from mega-cap growth stocks into value? Our Factor Rotation model has shifted away from large-cap growth and toward value as the gap between overbought growth stocks and oversold value stocks widens. Large-cap growth has been exceptionally strong, with MGK reaching new highs and becoming increasingly overbought. Meanwhile, VTV and large-cap value stocks have been under pressure, leaving parts of the value market significantly oversold. Historically, extremes like these can set the stage for capital to rotate between market sectors and styles. That does not mean a market crash or correction is imminent. Instead, the model suggests investors may be starting to take profits in some heavily weighted mega-cap growth names while moving capital toward more defensive and value-oriented stocks. Lance Roberts explains what the latest momentum signal and Factor Rotation model are showing, why growth-versus-value matters, and what investors with heavy technology exposure may want to watch next. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/46Y-k5LfWxA --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #GrowthStocks #ValueStocks #MarketRotation

    9-22-26 S&P 500 Eyes New Highs | Before the Bell

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 22, 2026 4:14


    The S&P 500 broke above its 20-day moving average and is now within striking distance of an all-time high. After weeks of consolidation, momentum is improving, and a new buy signal could put record highs back in play. Technology and semiconductor stocks are helping lead the move, with the Nasdaq and Technology sector challenging their previous highs. But another development may be taking shape beneath the surface: rotation into beaten-down areas of the market. Financials and Basic Materials have been under considerable pressure, leaving both sectors oversold and near important support levels. If investors begin taking profits from recently strong Technology stocks, could money rotate into these lagging sectors? Lance Roberts looks at the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Technology, Financials, and Basic Materials, and explains what the latest momentum and moving-average signals may suggest for markets in the days ahead. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/O5eqwiEF0dY --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SP500 #StockMarket #MarketOutlook #TechnologyStocks #Investing

    9-21-26 What Happens When Earnings Estimates Fall Short?

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 21, 2026 46:46


    Earnings expectations can drive stock prices higher, but what happens when corporate profits fail to meet those expectations? Lance Roberts examines earnings mean reversion, why Wall Street estimates can become overly optimistic, and what falling short of projected earnings could mean for stock valuations and market returns; what is the relationship between earnings growth and economic growth, how expectations become embedded in stock prices, and why elevated valuations can make earnings disappointments more consequential. Importantly, what should investors watch as earnings estimates change, and how can portfolio risk be managed when expectations and fundamentals begin to diverge? 0:00 - INTRO 0:59 - Rebalancing Coming; The History of Pensions (now over-funded) 3:51 - Friday's Options Expiry: Volatile Markets 4:37 - Markets Continue to do what they've been doing - Nothing 7:24 - Be Cautious with Allocations 8:03 - Volatility Remains Compressed 10:29 - Website & Radio History 13:50 - Goldman Earnings Estimates - What it doesn't show 17:28 - Why Most Narratives Never Matter - Earnings Don't Always Go Up 21:02 - (Chart) S&P Earnings vs Long Term Trend 22:55 - (Chart) S&P 500 Profit Margins Have Re-Based Higher 23:57 - The Apple iPhone Example 27:40 - The Earnings Boom Runs on One Budget (chart) 29:35 - (Chart) The Consensus Already Forecasts a 2027 Cliff 30:55 - A Narrative Worth Paying Attention to: What if spending tapers off? 32:45 - K-Shaped Economy tease 34:07 - Fed Rate Hike Recap - Where the Fed Rate Hike Reaches... 38:52 - The Fed's Dot Plot Signal 41:51 - Expectations vs Reality & Fed Irony (chart) 42:48 - Who Performs Best When Fed Rates Rise (chart) 43:37 - Portfolio Action Plan Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's "Before the Bell" report, "Market Pressure Is Building," https://youtu.be/PBwgI2MdnFM ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/ewgHX5U7dEg -------- Watch our previous show, "Will Your Money Last as Long as You Do?" https://youtube.com/live/360YB_NdPwA ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Earnings Mean Reversion: When Estimates Snap Back" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/earnings-mean-reversion-when-estimates-snap-back-2/ "The Fed Rate Hike Won't Fix The Inflation It Targets" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-fed-rate-hike-wont-fix-the-inflation-it-targets/ "K-Shaped Economy: Reality Or Media-Driven Perception" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/k-shaped-economy-reality-or-media-driven-perception/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #MarketOutlook #SP500 #OilPrice #Earnings #MarketValuations #PortfolioManagement #FederalReserve

    9-18-26 Will Your Money Last as Long as You Do?

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 18, 2026 40:11


    Living longer changes almost every assumption behind traditional retirement planning. As more Americans reach retirement age and potentially spend decades in retirement, planning must extend well beyond simply building a large enough portfolio. Richard Rosso and Jonathan "Smarty" McCarty examine the financial realities of longevity, including the fear of running out of money, identifying reliable retirement income sources, withdrawal and tax strategies, long-term care and hybrid insurance policies, estate planning, charitable giving, inheritances, housing decisions, and determining which risks you can absorb versus those you should mitigate. Plus, they discuss the lack of credentials among some financial influencers, alternative ways to measure inflation and healthcare costs, the state of workplace financial and retirement-planning benefits, and the provocative question of whether advances in artificial intelligence represent another major societal turning point. Living to 100 may sound like a blessing, but financially preparing for it requires a very different retirement plan. 0:00 - INTRO 0:20 - Finfluencers (financial influencers) Lack Credentials 6:52- Tracking Inflation w Multiple Metrics - Healthcare Cost Index 9:20 - State of the Workplace - Financial Benefits & Retirement Planning Assistance 11:03 - AI is self-aware: The Fifth Turning 13:23 - Planning for Longevity 16:05 - Estate Planning in Longevity Planning 18:13 - The Silver Tsunami - American's Turning 65 & Living Longer 21:13 - American's Working Longer - Longevity Coaching deficit 23:18 - The Longevity Checklist - Living to 100 25:31 - The Fear of Running Out of Money - Know the Reliability of Income Sources 28:23 - Withdrawal Strategies and Taxes in Old Age - Gifting and Charitable Intent 29:46 - Home Renovation Planning 32:04 - Longterm Care Insurance - Hybrid policies 33:13 - Living Will Directives & Inheritances 36:06 - Rockefeller's Donor Farm 37:45 - Understanding Risks to Absorb vs Risks to Mitigate Hosted by RIA Advisors' Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan McCarty, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/360YB_NdPwA -------- Watch our previous show, "What the Fed Said" https://youtube.com/live/ZB0_e_Oi86w?feature=share ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next in-person Retirement Income Workshop, tomorrow, September 19, 2026: https://tracking.realinvestmentadvice.com/l/1052953/2026-06-17/2kkcz --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #RetirementPlanning #LongevityPlanning #RetirementIncome #EstatePlanning #FinancialPlanning

    9-17-26 What the Fed Said

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 17, 2026 44:02


    The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years, but for investors, the bigger question is what comes next. Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz break down what the Fed said, what Chairman Kevin Warsh signaled about inflation and future monetary policy, and why the Fed's updated rate projections matter for markets. With most policymakers anticipating another rate increase this year, is this the beginning of a new tightening cycle, or could the Fed be closer to "one and done"? What could higher rates mean for stocks, bonds, economic growth, and portfolio strategy as investors look toward the Fed's remaining meetings in 2026? 0:00 INTRO 1:12 - Retail Sales Better than Expected 3:20 - Market Reaction to Rate Hike, Dot Plots, & Commentary 5:14 - Room for a Rally? Odds vs History 10:40 - Mrs. Roberts' Hamburger Date 13:37 - Fed Hikes Rates: Policy Mistake? 17:02 - No Rate Cuts Next Year? 19:50 - Why Would the Fed Raise Rates? (Looking at PCE) 24:02 - It's All About the Bond Market 24:44 - Kevin Warsh' non-Forward Guidance & Dot Plots 27:16 - What Problems Will Rate Hike Cause? 30:08 - This is screwy 31:06 - The Neutral Rate is Already Restrictive 32:27 - Has the Bond Market Already Done the Fed's Job? (article) 35:44 - When the Fed Fights Inflation, it Makes Your Life Worse 37:18 - Is This a Start of a New Rate Cycle, or Continuation of Past Rates? 38:46 - This is an Oil Problem 39:26 - Fed Funds Rate History (chart) 42:17 - Give it a few days... Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch today's Before the Bell report, "What Fed Rate Hikes Mean for Stocks," https://youtu.be/x3R2_RXa6ew ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/ZB0_e_Oi86w -------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday: What Will The Fed Do?" https://youtube.com/live/a_oJzPPbdLQ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next in-person Retirement Income Workshop, "Saturday, September 19, 2026: https://tracking.realinvestmentadvice.com/l/1052953/2026-06-17/2kkcz --- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Has The Bond Market Already Done The Fed's Job?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/has-the-bond-market-already-done-the-feds-job/ --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #StockMarket #InterestRates #SP500 #Investing #FedRateHike

    9-17-26 What Fed Rate Hikes Mean for Stocks | Before the Bell

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 17, 2026 4:49


    Markets reversed sharply after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled another potential rate hike by year-end and no rate cuts next year. Now the S&P 500 is testing support near the 100-day moving average as investors reassess what tighter monetary policy could mean for stocks. Historically, markets have tended to struggle during the first three months after the Fed begins hiking rates before recovering over the following year. But history is an average, not a forecast. With earnings still strong, corporate interest coverage at historically high levels, and bond yields already doing some of the Fed's tightening work, this cycle could play out differently. Lance Roberts examines the S&P 500's 50-DMA, 100-DMA, and 200-DMA support levels, the potential downside toward 7,200–7,000, and why risk management could become increasingly important if the Fed hikes again. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/x3R2_RXa6ew --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next in-person Retirement Income Workshop, "Saturday, September 19, 2026: https://tracking.realinvestmentadvice.com/l/1052953/2026-06-17/2kkcz --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #StockMarket #InterestRates #SP500 #Investing

    9-16-26 Q&A Wednesday: What Will The Fed Do?

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 16, 2026 50:09


    It's Fed Day, and markets are waiting for answers. It's also Q&A Wednesday, and Lance Roberts takes your questions from our YouTube Live Chat window. He'll break down the biggest economic, investing, and market developments of the past week, including the Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting, interest rates, inflation, rising Treasury yields, oil prices, AI spending concerns, and the recent pressure on stocks. 0:00 INTRO 0:55 - Fed Day: Will They or Won't They? 3:11 - Market Breaks Below 50-DMA 4:12 - Reflexive Rally not surprising, post-Fed 4:30 - Oil Prices Putting Pressure on Economy 9:02 - What's the Expected Market Reaction for FOMC Rate Decision? 12:54 - Are there clear tech support levels for S&P? 15:57 - Does it make sense to owns TIPS in an IRA in a state with high income tax? 16:47 - Lance's Roth Thesis 19:14 - Inflation feeds into everything; isn't it tame for now? (What the Fed SHOULD do) 22:37 - Credit Card Spending and After Tax Wage Growth 25:31 - Do Markets Compound? (no) 30:03 - Gold Behavior and Rate Hikes 31:53 - Too Bad Warsh Didn't Introduce Truflation (link to Oliver Rust interview is below) 32:49 - 90% Equities, 10% Cash: Time to Buy Bonds? 34:07 - Nick Timaros Chart--pricing in two rate hikes this year? 34:39 - Selling Equities to Lock in Bonds? 38:08 (Gamblers Anonymous Thursdays w Michael Lebowitz) 39:52 - Raise Rate and Lower Credit Card Rates? (Doesn't work that way) 40:15 - Do we only have a few years left to make money? (yes) (chart) 44:34 - Will Payment of Interest on National Debt be an Issue? (no) 46:19 - Where might the top of the Ten Year Treasury be? 47:54 - Why can't you cap credit card rates lower? Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch today's Before the Bell report, "Markets Break the 50-DMA: What Happens Next?" https://youtu.be/GNBpgdhBG9U ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/a_oJzPPbdLQ -------- Watch our previous show, "10 Money Moves to Make Before Year End" https://youtube.com/live/cSHoYh0sR70 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next in-person Retirement Income Workshop, "Saturday, September 19, 2026: https://tracking.realinvestmentadvice.com/l/1052953/2026-06-17/2kkcz --- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Investing Myths Dismantled (Chapter 4 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investing-myths-dismantled-chapter-4-of-5/ "Is Inflation Data Getting it Wrong? (Oliver Rust Interview) https://www.youtube.com/live/603EdhToXq8?si=lSvziR7PKnwWx1Fp --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #AIStocks #MarketOutlook #Investing #TechnologyStocks #FinancialPlanning #RetirementPlanning #TaxPlanning #RothConversion #YearEndPlanning

    9-16-26 Markets Break the 50-DMA: What Happens Next? | Before the Bell

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 16, 2026 4:21


    Markets broke below the 50-DMA and their recent consolidation range, but does that signal a deeper correction or set the stage for a reflexive rally? With stocks becoming increasingly oversold, today's FOMC meeting could provide the catalyst for the market's next move. Meanwhile, oil remains an important wildcard. High energy and diesel prices can weigh on consumers, transportation, inflation, and economic growth, while a reversal in oil could ease inflation pressure, give the Fed more breathing room, and potentially provide relief for bond yields. Lance Roberts examines the market's technical setup, why a sustained break of the 50-DMA matters more than a one-day move, and how oil prices could influence stocks, inflation, interest rates, and the economy through year-end. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/GNBpgdhBG9U --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next in-person Retirement Income Workshop, "Saturday, September 19, 2026: https://tracking.realinvestmentadvice.com/l/1052953/2026-06-17/2kkcz --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #FederalReserve #FOMC #OilPrices #Investing

    9-15-26 10 Money Moves to Make Before Year End

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 15, 2026 48:37


    The end of the year will be here before you know it. What financial moves should you make now instead of waiting until December? Lance Roberts and Jon Penn look at 10 important year-end financial planning decisions to consider before December 31, including tax planning, Roth conversions, required minimum distributions (RMDs), qualified charitable distributions (QCDs), retirement plan contributions, and charitable giving. 0:00 INTRO 1:02 - The Challenge in the Markets 2:22 - Will Warsh Hike Rates...or not? 3:19 - Markets Struggle through Narrow Trading Range 4:31 - If the Markets Stay Flat...? 8:47 - Preparing for Q4 (Halloween & Christmas) 12:32 - Gold, Silver, & Precious Metals as Inflation Hedge? (Why to earn certain assets) 14:24 - Figuring out the equity allocation puzzle 19:26 - ...when we're 64. 20:45 - 20% is not enough for equity exposure 23:33 - Diversity Assets AND Account Types 25:20 - Turn off the noise; the problem with being pessimistic 27:31 - Know What You Own 29:40 - What to Focus on Between Now & EOY 30:55 - How to Prepare for Santa Cause Rally (Tax-loss Harvesting) 32:21 - Wash Rules & ETF's 33:58 - Charitable Contributions & Donor Advised Funds 35:16 - Does Roth Conversion Make Sense Now? 36:00 - How to Handle Required Minimum Distributions this year 36:40 - Qualitied Charitable Distributions 39:30 - Maxing Out Contributions to IRA's (Get the free money) 42:54 - Portfolio Allocation, Risk Tolerances, & Large Expenditures: Cash on hand? 46:07 - Reviewing Beneficiary Designations Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch today's Before the Bell report, "Is AI Spending Really Slowing?" https://youtu.be/sSQVKetdR2g ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/cSHoYh0sR70 -------- Watch our previous show, "Is This Time Different for Stocks?" https://youtube.com/live/GNSmdq5nH2o ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next in-person Retirement Income Workshop, "Saturday, September 19, 2026: https://tracking.realinvestmentadvice.com/l/1052953/2026-06-17/2kkcz --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #AIStocks #MarketOutlook #Investing #TechnologyStocks #FinancialPlanning #RetirementPlanning #TaxPlanning #RothConversion #YearEndPlanning

    9-15-26 Is AI Spending Really Slowing? | Before the Bell

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 15, 2026 4:28


    AI slowdown fears pressured stocks Monday, but the market held support at the 50-DMA as investors began looking past the headlines. Despite calls to slow AI development, data center spending remains strong, infrastructure backlogs stretch for years, and earnings expectations continue to rise. Meanwhile, the broader market remains stuck in a narrow trading range as money rotates between sectors rather than leaving stocks altogether. With some Technology names becoming increasingly oversold, negative sentiment could also be creating opportunities. We look at the key 50-DMA and 100-DMA support levels, September weakness, midterm election risk, AI spending, sector rotation, and why rising earnings estimates, returning stock buybacks, and third-quarter earnings could provide support heading into year-end. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/sSQVKetdR2g --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next in-person Retirement Income Workshop, "Saturday, September 19, 2026: https://tracking.realinvestmentadvice.com/l/1052953/2026-06-17/2kkcz --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #AIStocks #MarketOutlook #Investing #TechnologyStocks

    9-14-26 Is This Time Different for Stocks?

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 14, 2026 46:54


    Stock prices and corporate earnings are breaking trends that have held for roughly 90 years. Does artificial intelligence represent a fundamental change in the economy and markets, or are investors once again being tempted by the four most dangerous words in investing: "this time is different"? Lance Roberts examines whether AI has truly changed the earnings equation, what today's valuations suggest about future returns, and why investors don't necessarily have to choose between being bullish and bearish. 0:00 INTRO 1:01 - FOMC Week; AI: To Pause or Not to Pause? 4:35 - Markets Still Stuck 9:47 - A look at Bond Flow Dynamics 13:49 - Why is Everyone Buying Longer Term Bonds? 14:31 - The TINA Trade 17:50 - The Primary Function of Bonds in a Portfolio: Safety 24:02 - Investment Psychology: Narrative and Greed 27:24 - The Gap Between Estimates and Reality 28:18 - The Truth About Compounding 31:29 - The Permanent Impairment of Capital 33:42 - Currency Debasement & Inflation 35:22 - How to Offset Risk of Inflation: Bonds vs Equities 37:25 - A portfolio is an Engine 38:41 - A Crisis Without a Calendar 41:36 - We're at the Tail End of a Secular Bull Market 43:54 - Investing in Lead & Beans 44:50 - Why We Prefer Optimism Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch today's Before the Bell report, "Don't Overreact to Today's Tech Selloff," https://youtu.be/mE2qTZl5Pf8 ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/GNSmdq5nH2o -------- Watch our previous show, "Can the FIRE Movement Really Work?" https://www.youtube.com/live/HummvRArByg?si=EZBAImkZqNESj9uh ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Weak Buyback & Strong Auctions: Bullish Signals For Bonds" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/weak-buyback-strong-auctions-bullish-signals-for-bonds/ "This Time Is Different? Earnings and Price Break 90-Year Trends" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/is-this-time-different-earnings-and-price-break-90-year-trends/ "Portfolio Risk Management: Winning The Long Game (Chapter 5) https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/portfolio-risk-management-winning-the-long-game-chapter-5/ "US Debt Trap: A Crisis Without A Calendar" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/us-debt-trap-a-crisis-without-a-calendar/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next in-person Retirement Income Workshop, "Saturday, September 19, 2026: https://tracking.realinvestmentadvice.com/l/1052953/2026-06-17/2kkcz --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Nasdaq #ArtificialIntelligence #FederalReserve #Investing

    9-14-26 Don't Overreact to Today's Tech Selloff | Before the Bell

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 14, 2026 4:02


    September's frustrating market consolidation continues, but Technology and the NASDAQ face fresh pressure following weekend calls from AI industry leaders to slow development. Is this the start of a bigger breakdown, or simply a kneejerk reaction? Lance Roberts explains why investors should avoid making big portfolio moves based on the opening selloff. While Technology is under pressure, strength in Financials, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, and Energy could provide broader market support. With the S&P 500 near its 50-DMA and the Federal Reserve's FOMC decision coming Wednesday, today's trading may have as much to do with positioning ahead of the Fed as concerns about AI. The key isn't where markets open. It's where they close. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/mE2qTZl5Pf8 --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next in-person Retirement Income Workshop, "Saturday, September 19, 2026: https://tracking.realinvestmentadvice.com/l/1052953/2026-06-17/2kkcz --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Nasdaq #ArtificialIntelligence #FederalReserve #Investing

    9-11-26 Can the FIRE Movement Really Work?

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 11, 2026 51:23


    The Financial Independence, Retire Early movement promises something many people want: save aggressively, live below your means, build wealth, and gain the freedom to leave work early. But does the FIRE movement really work when retirement could last 40, 50, or even 60 years? Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty examine the different approaches to FIRE, including Fat FIRE, Lean FIRE, Barista FIRE, and Coast FIRE, and discuss where retirement calculations can go wrong. We also look at why stocks should not simply be treated as predictable compounding assets, the risks of quitting your job too soon, inflation and the "pink tax," Trump Accounts for children, and why financial independence remains such an attractive goal. Plus, what the arrival of humanoid robots could mean for work and retirement planning, why financial gimmicks deserve skepticism, and why a sound retirement plan should prepare for the worst while hoping for the best. The program also marks the 25th anniversary of September 11, 2001, with a remembrance of "The Falling Man" and those whose lives were forever changed that day. 0:00 INTRO 0:19 - Preview: Getting People to Save More & the F.I.R.E. Movement 1:34 - 25th Anniversary of 9/11 - The Falling Man 9:05 - Financial Independence Retire Early movement 12:01 - Fat FIRE, Lean FIRE, Barrista FIRE 13:59 - Stocks Are Not Compounding Assets 16:38 - Coast FIRE (Walletburst.com): Why the Calculations Don't Work 19:23 - How to Blow up Your Retirement Plan (Don't Quit Your Job) 30:56 - Humanoid Robot Attack (KTLA) 32:44 - Why the FIRE Movement is Attractive 34:00 - Where's the Risk? 35:42 - Where Are They Now? 37:13 - The Appeal of Financial Independence 39:40 - The Coming of the Robots 41:21 - Beware the Gimmicks 42:16 - Plan for the Worst, Hope for the Best 44:46 - Here Comes Baby McCarty #2 47:53 - Big Life Events vs FIRE 49:25 - The Pink Tax is a Thing Hosted by RIA Advisors' Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan "Smarty" McCarty, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/live/HummvRArByg?si=EZBAImkZqNESj9uh -------- Watch our previous show, "What Will Inflation Data Do for the Fed?" https://youtube.com/live/y1GoUw9wURw?feature=share ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "How to Achieve Financial Independence and Retire Early (FIRE)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/fire-retirement-strategy/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next in-person Retirement Income Workshop, "Saturday, September 19, 2026: https://tracking.realinvestmentadvice.com/l/1052953/2026-06-17/2kkcz --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FIREMovement #FinancialIndependence #RetireEarly #RetirementPlanning #PersonalFinance

    9-10-26 What Will Inflation Data Do for the Fed?

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 10, 2026 41:25


    With CPI and PPI inflation reports in focus, markets are looking for clues about the Fed's next move on interest rates. Will cooler inflation give policymakers more room to cut rates, or could hotter data force the Fed to remain cautious? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz examine what the latest inflation numbers could mean for Fed policy, interest rates, Treasury yields, and financial markets, as investors try to determine whether inflation is cooling enough to change the Fed's outlook. 0:00 INTRO 0:49 - PPI, CPI Preview 2:11 - Oil As Factor in Inflation 4:36 - Markets Continue to Do What They Do 6:53 - Volatility Warms Up 10:03 - PPI, CPI - What's Driving the Numbers 12:56 - Inflation vs Deflation 17:21 - We Have a Relatively Weak Economy 18:51 - Will the Fed Hike Rates Twice this Year? 20:04 - Walsh, Bessent, & Signals to the Market 24:58 - Go Back and Watch Truflation Interview w Oliver Rust: https://www.youtube.com/live/603EdhToXq8?si=irUSKOwd9oEDb2hM 25:56 - Scott Bessent "I am the House" 30:39 - Ten Year Treasury Auction Results 32:38 - S&P 500 Trend Index 34:52 - In the End-phase of Secular Bullish Trend 37:37 - Moving Into a More Normal Rate Environment Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/y1GoUw9wURw -------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday: What Should Investors Do Now?" https://youtube.com/live/cbnYs0Eoc0E?feature=share ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "Markets Test Key Support," https://youtu.be/t6Hl9kH52gw ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Hike Or Hold? Debating The Coming Fed Decision" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/hike-or-hold-debating-the-coming-fed-decision/ "Investing Myths Dismantled (Chapter 4 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investing-myths-dismantled-chapter-4-of-5/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next in-person Retirement Income Workshop, "Saturday, September 19, 2026: https://tracking.realinvestmentadvice.com/l/1052953/2026-06-17/2kkcz --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #Inflation #FederalReserve #MarketOutlook #FederalReserve #InterestRates #CPI #FedPolicy

    9-10-26 Markets Test Key Support | Before the Bell

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 10, 2026 3:40


    Markets have fallen for three straight sessions and are now testing the S&P 500's 50-day moving average, the first key target for this pullback. While momentum remains on a sell signal, markets are becoming oversold enough to support a potential bounce. This week's PPI and CPI inflation reports could determine what happens next. Cooler inflation could spark a rally, while hotter-than-expected data could increase concerns about Federal Reserve policy and push stocks toward the 100-day moving average and the next major support levels. September weakness, bearish hedge fund positioning, compressed volatility, and oversold technology stocks are creating catalysts in both directions. With the market still trapped inside its consolidation range, this is a time for caution, selective hedging, and some cash management rather than making a drastic portfolio move. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/t6Hl9kH52gw --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next in-person Retirement Income Workshop, "Saturday, September 19, 2026: https://tracking.realinvestmentadvice.com/l/1052953/2026-06-17/2kkcz --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #Inflation #FederalReserve #MarketOutlook

    9-9-26 Q&A Wednesday: What Should Investors Do Now?

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 9, 2026 48:05


    Markets are entering a critical stretch as investors confront rising oil prices, renewed inflation concerns, higher Treasury yields, shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy, and continued uncertainty over the direction of stocks. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff take your questions live and examine what the latest economic and market developments could mean for your money. 0:00 INTRO 1:01 - Market is hanging out - Going Nowhere Quickly 3:33 - Rise in Rate Hike Odds will Increase Pressure on the Fed? 7:05 - Too Loud? Too Old... 7:43 - Bessent: "I am the House" 9:19 - Dollar vs the Euro? 10:58 - High-risk, High-reward at 2% of Portfolio? 15:56 - What Dividend Sector is Safest for Building a Retirement Portfolio? Dividend Yield vs Fundamentals 17:50 - Stewardship of Capital issue - How to Find Strong Dividend Companies 20:21 - Doomed? Waiting for the Downturn (don't fall in love...) Valuations Matter 23:54 - Buying Puts as Insurance? Mistakes Most Make... 26:48 - Use of MIGA's for Income Component? 30:51 - Lifetime Income Annuities? 33:12 - Long Term Care insurance policies 35:20 - Worry About Market Volatility? 36:42 - What Moves is Berkshire Hathaway Making? (Google) 37:29 - What are alternative ways to hedge? (Puts vs Cash) 43:02 - What is the recommended percentage of cash in a portfolio? Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/cbnYs0Eoc0E?feature=share -------- Watch our previous show, "What Higher Bond Yields Mean for Your Portfolio" https://youtu.be/XWj6ghN3obM ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "Oil and Inflation Raise Market Risk," https://youtu.be/_ClOwNXFx3c ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "September Market Weakness: The Setup Has Teeth" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/september-market-weakness-the-setup-has-teeth/ "Investing Myths Dismantled (Chapter 4 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investing-myths-dismantled-chapter-4-of-5/ "Spock And The Logic Based Approach To Volatility" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/spock-and-the-logic-based-approach-to-volatility/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next in-person Retirement Income Workshop, "Saturday, September 19, 2026: https://tracking.realinvestmentadvice.com/l/1052953/2026-06-17/2kkcz --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Inflation #OilPrices #FederalReserve #Investing #FinancialPlanning

    9-9-26 Oil and Inflation Raise Market Risk | Before the Bell

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 9, 2026 3:55


    Markets remain stuck below the 20-day moving average as September weakness, a momentum sell signal, and the corporate buyback blackout weigh on stocks. The S&P 500 could test its 50-day moving average near 7,570, with the 100-day moving average around 7,450 representing additional downside risk. Meanwhile, rising oil prices add another challenge. Higher energy and gasoline costs can weaken consumer demand, pressure economic growth and earnings, and eventually feed into inflation. A hotter CPI or PPI report could also increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider higher interest rates. With earnings estimates elevated and corporate buybacks sidelined, investors should remain focused on managing portfolio risk, maintaining appropriate hedges, and keeping some cash available as September progresses. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/_ClOwNXFx3c --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next in-person Retirement Income Workshop, "Saturday, September 19, 2026: https://tracking.realinvestmentadvice.com/l/1052953/2026-06-17/2kkcz --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Inflation #OilPrices #FederalReserve #Investing

    9-8-26 What Higher Bond Yields Mean for Your Portfolio

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 8, 2026 50:33


    Why are bond yields moving higher, and what could that mean for investors? Rising Treasury yields can influence borrowing costs, economic growth, stock valuations, and bond prices. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn break down what may be driving yields higher, what the bond market could be signaling, and how changing interest rates can work their way through the economy and financial markets. For investors, the key may not simply be how high yields rise, but understanding what is causing them to move higher. 0:00 INTRO 0:53 - ADP, PPI CPI Previews 1:34 - Meh Market: Don't do anything yet 6:03 - Mid-Terms are up in the air 6:57 - Oil Prices & Inflation 8:06 - Volatility remains compressed 9:53 - Labor Day & Refrigerator Raids 10:30 - What do higher interest rates mean for economy, portfolios? 12:52 - What the Fed really controls 14:53 - There's Good Inflation & Bad Inflation 16:27 - Interest Rates, Debt, & Deficits 17:53 - The Math of Term Premiums 20:15 - When a Treasury Matures (is there any risk to not being bought?) 22:38 - Rates are Returning to Normal 24:17 - The Example 27:35 - The Discount Rate 28:59 - The Rate of Change in Interest Rates 30:34 - When Will interest Rates impact Equity Markets? 32:15 - Are Higher Rates the New Normal? 34:09 - It's Okay to Own the Long End of the Curve 37:54 - The Irony of Higher Interest Rates 38:53 - Debt, Deficits, & Demographics 40:18 - Crises Without a Clock are Useless 42:20 - The Thing About Upside-down Bonds (and loss aversion) 45:30 - Just because you take a loss... Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jon Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: "When Doing Nothing Wins:" https://youtu.be/XWj6ghN3obM -------- Watch our previous show, "Is Inflation Data Getting It Wrong? - Oliver Rust Interview " https://youtube.com/live/603EdhToXq8?feature=share ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Yield Curve Tells Us More Than We Think" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/earnings-mean-reversion-when-estimates-snap-back/ "Normal Interest Rates: What The Debt Panic Gets Wrong" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/normal-interest-rates-what-the-debt-panic-gets-wrong/ "Druckenmiller Warning: The Bond Market Already Priced It" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/druckenmiller-warning-the-bond-market-already-priced-it/ "Investing Myths Dismantled (Chapter 4 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investing-myths-dismantled-chapter-4-of-5/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next in-person Retirement Income Workshop, "Saturday, September 19, 2026: https://tracking.realinvestmentadvice.com/l/1052953/2026-06-17/2kkcz --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #MarketOutlook #OilPrices #PortfolioRisk

    9-8-26 When Doing Nothing Wins | Before the Bell

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 8, 2026 4:49


    Markets are sitting on the 20-DMA after a summer of consolidation, rapid sector rotations, and little directional progress. While futures point lower, bullish trends remain intact, momentum is working off its sell signal, and volatility remains unusually compressed heading into the midterm elections. Meanwhile, rising oil prices could feed into this week's CPI report, but with crude extremely overbought and approaching resistance, energy investors may want to consider taking some risk off the table. Lance Roberts explains why patience may still be the better strategy, where market risks are building, and why exceptionally cheap puts could make this an attractive time to hedge portfolio risk. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/XWj6ghN3obM --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next in-person Retirement Income Workshop, "Saturday, September 19, 2026: https://tracking.realinvestmentadvice.com/l/1052953/2026-06-17/2kkcz --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #MarketOutlook #OilPrices #PortfolioRisk

    9-7-26 Is Inflation Data Getting It Wrong? - Oliver Rust Interview DESCRIPTION

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 7, 2026 43:23


    Is the Consumer Price Index accurately measuring the inflation Americans actually experience? Lance Roberts talks with Oliver Rust of Truflation about how real-time inflation data can differ from traditional CPI measurements. They examine housing and rent concessions, regional price differences, consumer substitution, the K-shaped economy, housing affordability, and the continuing resilience of consumer spending. Oliver also explains how Truflation builds its inflation index, where its methodology differs from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, its work with the Federal Reserve, and what its data says about inflation now. Plus, they discuss what could come next as Truflation expands into employment and other economic indicators. For investors watching inflation, interest rates, housing, and the Federal Reserve, the question is increasingly important: Which inflation data best reflects the economy consumers are actually living in? 0:00 - INTRO 0:55 - What is Wrong with current Inflation/CPI Measurement? 2:46 - The Data Truflation Uses 5:36 - Solving for Interstate Price Variables 6:46 - How is Housing Weighted in Truflation Metric vs BLS & CPI 10:24 - The Concessions in Rental Agreements are not accounted for 15:00 - What is Inflation Doing Now? 16:42 - The Bifurcation in Housing - New Homes vs Existing Home Sales 18:23 - Housing Affordability & K-Shaped Economy 21:17 - Who's Right: CPI or Truflation? (Working with the Fed) 25:51 - The Boskin Commission & Hedonics - What Truflation Does Not Measure 28:40 - Factoring in Substitution by Consumers 30:46 - Effects of FIFA World Cup in U.S. 33:01 - Truflation Expectations for the Future 36:20 - The Resilience of the Consumer - how long will they spend? 38:22 - What if Truflation Had Been Around Back Then... 40:14 - Truflation Plans for Expansion: Employment & Economic Indicators 41:49 - Cross Correlation of data sets is worth reviewing Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Oliver Rust, TruFlation Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/603EdhToXq8 ------- Watch our previous show, " " ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Inflation #CPI #FederalReserve #Economy #Investing

    9-4-26 Don't Be a Retirement Castaway

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 4, 2026 53:14


    Retirement planning is about more than building a portfolio. It's also about deciding what comes next. Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty explore the retirement crossroads: making the transition from work to retirement, finding purpose after a career, setting new goals, applying your skills in new ways, and overcoming the reluctance many retirees have to spend the money they've accumulated. We also dig into the financial strategies that can make a difference, including Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs), donor-advised funds, charitable checks that aren't cashed, changing tax rules, and potential retirement tax traps. Plus, what movies like The Intern and Cast Away can teach us about identity, purpose, relationships, and life after work. Retirement isn't simply about whether you have enough money. It's about answering a much bigger question: Where are you headed? 0:00 INTRO 0:18 - All "news" all the time... 3:33 - The Importance of Staying Current - What Happens in 2028? 5:08 - What We Do is Strategy 7:46 - What is a QCD? 9:45 - When the Check isn't Cashed... 11:14 - Donor-advised Funds 12:49 - Running the Tax Traps 16:00 - Retirees Who Are Reluctant to Spend 17:04 - Movies that Relate to Retirement (The Intern) 19:53 - The Castaway & Retirement 23:17 - Making the Retirement Transition 28:52 - "You Don't Have to do This Anymore" 35:07 - How to Apply Personal Skills After Retirement 37:00 - Have a Confidant 43:18 - Post-retirement Goals 46:19 - Where Are You Headed? 48:10 - The Retirement Crossroads Hosted by RIA Advisors' Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan McCarty, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/mmJmDMR-gK4?feature=share -------- Watch our previous show, " " ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Loss: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter (Chapter 3 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/loss-why-crashes-timing-valuations-matter-chapter-3-of-5/dvice.com/resources/blog/why-retail-traders-consistently-underperform-over-time/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #RetirementPlanning #RetirementIncome #FinancialPlanning #TaxPlanning #RetirementLife

    9-3-26 Is the Stock Market Expensive or Cheap?

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 3, 2026 44:15


    Is the stock market dangerously expensive, or are investors overlooking strong future earnings growth? The S&P 500's Shiller CAPE ratio has reached 41, yet the PEG ratio, which incorporates expected earnings growth, is signaling one of the cheapest market valuations in decades. Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts examine why these two popular valuation measures are sending completely opposite signals. The key difference comes down to expectations: CAPE relies on historical earnings, while PEG depends heavily on Wall Street forecasts for future growth. We look at the reliability of those earnings forecasts, the extraordinary concentration of expected growth among a handful of large technology companies, the role of AI investment, and whether today's valuations already price in too much optimism. 0:00 INTRO 1:04 - Jobs, JOLTS, & Economic Number Previews 5:01 - Markets are Stuck 11:04 - Vacation & Weekend Plans 12:23 - The Fed: What Will Warsh Do With Rates? 16:12 - The Truth About "Fed Buy Backs" 17:57 - Inflation Expectations are not Reason to Raise Rates 21:29 - No Guidance from the Fed? 23:48 - Valuations - What We Know vs What We Think We Know 28:48 - It all Comes Down to AI 32:12 - The Issue with PEG Ratios 36:12 - Dealing with Earnings Estimates Revisions 37:55 - How AI is Like the Railroads 39:34 -The Use of AI is Growing Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/OOZIdB7YSsw -------- Watch our previous show, "What Should You Expect From a Financial Planner?" https://youtube.com/live/dRd4fGgwrkc ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "Market Stuck in Neutral," https://youtu.be/bTDPi28yJcg ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Market Valuation: Expensive CAPE Or Cheap PEG?" hhttps://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/market-valuation-expensive-cape-or-cheap-peg/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #MarketOutlook #ValueStocks #SeptemberMarkets #StockMarket #MarketValuation #Investing #SP500 #ArtificialIntelligence

    9-3-26 Market Stuck in Neutral | Before the Bell

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 3, 2026 5:18


    Markets remain trapped in a frustrating sideways consolidation as money rapidly rotates between Technology, Healthcare, Momentum, and Value. Momentum stocks remain under pressure, while large-cap Value and Quality are holding up better. With volatility still compressed and markets offering little directional conviction, Lance Roberts explains why investors should avoid chasing rotations or making rash portfolio moves until the market finally shows its hand. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/bTDPi28yJcg --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #MarketOutlook #ValueStocks #SeptemberMarkets

    9-2-26 Q&A Wednesday: What Are Markets Waiting For?

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 2, 2026 48:40


    September is starting with a new set of challenges for investors: rising Treasury yields, higher oil prices, persistent inflation, renewed geopolitical tensions, and growing questions about whether the Federal Reserve may have to raise rates again. Add historically weak September seasonality and the uncertainty surrounding the midterm elections, and investors have plenty to think about. Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff answer your questions about market risk, interest rates, inflation, portfolio positioning, retirement planning, and what investors should be watching next. 0:00 INTRO 0:50 - JOLTS Report Review, ADP/Jobs Preview 2:04 - Oil Prices on the rise (oil risk is transient): What's feeding into Inflation? 3:52 - Broadcom report preview 4:14 - Market working down towards 50-DMA to test support 5:15 - Seasonal weakness for September is present; volatility remains low 8:53 - Any market Rotation? 10:28 - Guidance for Acquiring company stock in 401k 12:37 - Recommendation for Rotation in and out of funds - how & why & controlling risk 15:30 - Dividend yields or reinvest in Creation of Retirement Paycheck? 19:37 - Where to hide money from the "coming doom..." 21:30 - Dealing with the risks in September 22:57 - Portfolio Management Rebalancing, & Target Weighting 26:13 - Data Center & related stocks: Bloom, Anet, ETN 30:15 - Money flow & Breadth Indicator, Momentum signals: Tax avoidance investing 32:56 - Is anyone big enough to move the market to influence the election (Situational Awareness) 36:55 - Changes to mandatory withdrawals 38:38 - Sensible policies to "fix" SS: remove restrictions on IRA's vs need for revenue 43:33 - Brookfield Corp? 45:12 - Worry about IRMAA? 45:56 - Pullback # for S&P 46:33 - Gold & Silver to run in future? Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/ZxnrV8m0F4g?feature=share -------- Watch our previous show, "What Should You Expect From a Financial Planner?" https://youtube.com/live/dRd4fGgwrkc ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "September Weakness Tests Market Support," https://youtu.be/4xaM1pIhI1w ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Loss: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter (Chapter 3 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/loss-why-crashes-timing-valuations-matter-chapter-3-of-5/dvice.com/resources/blog/why-retail-traders-consistently-underperform-over-time/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #MarketCorrection #RiskManagement #SeptemberMarkets #Investing #FederalReserve #RetirementPlanning #MarketRisk

    9-2-26 September Weakness Tests Market Support | Before the Bell

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 2, 2026 4:06


    Markets are testing support after three straight days of selling, with technology and semiconductors leading the weakness. The S&P 500 is moving toward its 50-DMA as September seasonality, upcoming corporate buyback blackouts, and quarter-end repositioning add to downside risk. But this remains a normal market pullback, not a reason to panic. With volatility still unusually low and markets not yet deeply oversold, investors should keep the weakness in context. Now is the time to manage risk, take profits where appropriate, rebalance portfolio allocations, and raise some cash rather than make emotional decisions. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/4xaM1pIhI1w --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #MarketCorrection #RiskManagement #SeptemberMarkets

    9-1-26 What Should You Expect From a Financial Planner?

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 1, 2026 48:33


    What should a good financial planner actually do for you? It should go far beyond choosing investments or building a retirement portfolio. A strong financial planning relationship should provide organization, accountability, objectivity, education, and proactive guidance while coordinating investments, taxes, Social Security, Medicare, insurance, estate planning, and retirement income. Just as importantly, your financial plan should evolve as your life, goals, markets, and tax laws change. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn examine what investors should expect from a financial planner, why personalization and communication matter, how a fiduciary relationship should work, and why good financial advice is ultimately about helping you make better decisions with your money. 0:00 INTRO 0:54 - Economic Previews & late earnings trickle in 3:15 - AI: Dis-inflationary AND Inflationary 4:57 - September is Seasonally Weak: 11:20 - Traditional Buy & Hold vs more active management & fear of gains 14:16 - Capital Preservation is first priority 17:44 - Separately Managed Accounts (SMA) vs S&P 20:04 - The Challenges of starting to build financial plan 26:00 - Getting Your Money's Worth from Financial Advisor 29:21 - The Problem of Account Accumulation & Dilution of Returns 34:02 - Budgeting, stress-testing, & tax planning opportunities 36:17 - Estate planning, medical directives, Durable POA 38:08 - Financial Planning priorities in Investing 39:06 - The Role of Life Insurance in Financial Planning 40:26 - Annuities' Bad rap - does it make sense? 44:00 - How much Liability Protection do You Need? Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/dRd4fGgwrkc -------- Watch our previous show, "Druckenmiller's Bond Market Warning" https://youtube.com/live/8HuTiqxY7yM ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "Don't Make a Big Bet Yet," https://youtu.be/9gNpbwdm97w ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Loss: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter (Chapter 3 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/loss-why-crashes-timing-valuations-matter-chapter-3-of-5/dvice.com/resources/blog/why-retail-traders-consistently-underperform-over-time/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #MarketOutlook #Investing #MarketCorrection #FinancialPlanning #FinancialAdvisor #RetirementPlanning #PersonalFinance #WealthManagement

    9-1-26 Don't Make a Big Bet Yet | Before the Bell

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 1, 2026 5:24


    Markets are showing broader signs of weakness as the S&P 500, equal-weight index, small caps, and international stocks test or break key moving averages. Technology remains under pressure, while sector rotation continues beneath the surface. Lance Roberts looks at why a move toward the 50-DMA would not be surprising, why investors should avoid making large portfolio bets before the market establishes a clearer direction, and how a strengthening U.S. Dollar could pressure emerging markets, gold, and precious metals. For now, patience may be the best strategy as markets work through this consolidation and correction process. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/9gNpbwdm97w --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #MarketOutlook #Investing #MarketCorrection

    8-31-26 Druckenmiller's Bond Market Warning

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 31, 2026 50:19


    Stanley Druckenmiller is warning Washington about the bond market, but the real message may not be an impending debt crisis. The bond market may have already delivered its verdict. Lance Roberts examines Druckenmiller's criticism of Treasury intervention, Scott Bessent's expanded long-term Treasury buybacks, and why attempts to manage yields could create a bigger problem than the initial intervention itself. 0:00 INTRO 0:53 - Labor Day Preview, Kevin Warsh Review 4:53 - US-Venezuela Oil Deal 6:08 - August Into September Markets 12:09 - Pumpkins, Spice, & Sickle and Hammer 13:14 - Stanley Druckenmiller & AI 15:41 - Druckenmiller's Bond Warning 18:12 - The Bond Buy back Operation 23:23 - Warsh Wants the Fed Out of the Bond market 25:40 - What Druckenmiller Said vs What's being read 28:10 - What You Should Do if You Own Fixed Income 33:12 - If there's not Crisis... 35:46 - The Myths of Long Term Investing, Part-3 - The Math of Loss 42:55 - Why Valuations Matter 45:35 - When You Retire Matters Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/8HuTiqxY7yM -------- Watch our previous show, "Will Your IRA Go to the Right People?" https://youtube.com/live/GpH7q-IgPXs?feature=share ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "September Volatility Test Begins," https://youtu.be/6e-dFR8sjyc ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SeptemberMarkets #MarketVolatility #Investing #RiskManagement #BondMarket #InterestRates #TreasuryBonds #StanleyDruckenmiller #Investing

    8-31-26 September Volatility Test Begins | Before the Bell

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 31, 2026 5:32


    September arrives with markets under pressure, volatility unusually compressed, and the S&P 500 testing key technical support. With earnings season over and economic data taking center stage, investors could face a more challenging stretch as momentum stocks weaken and midterm election uncertainty approaches. Lance Roberts examines the market's sell signal, the potential for a pullback toward the 50-DMA and 100-DMA, and why the 7,500 area could become important support. With rapid market rotation making risk management more difficult, maintaining a cash buffer, managing bond duration, and avoiding emotional investment decisions could be increasingly important as September volatility returns. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/6e-dFR8sjyc --- Articles mentioned in this report: "Druckenmiller Warning: The Bond Market Already Priced It" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/druckenmiller-warning-the-bond-market-already-priced-it/ "Loss: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter (Chapter 3 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/loss-why-crashes-timing-valuations-matter-chapter-3-of-5/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SeptemberMarkets #MarketVolatility #Investing #RiskManagement

    8-28-26 Will Your IRA Go to the Right People?

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 28, 2026 33:01


    Who inherits your IRA could matter just as much as what's in it. The SECURE Act changed the rules for inherited retirement accounts, while newer IRS regulations created additional planning opportunities for trusts and multiple beneficiaries. Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty break down IRA beneficiary designations, the 10-year distribution rule, trusts as retirement account beneficiaries, and why outdated estate plans can create unintended tax consequences. Plus, we explain how properly structured trusts and subtrusts may provide greater flexibility for spouses, children, and other heirs. Before assuming your will or trust has your retirement accounts covered, make sure your beneficiary strategy actually works the way you intend. 0:00 INTRO 0:20 - Nana Nun, teaser: Designating Beneficiaries Can Become a Nightmare 2:03 - Uber & Zipline drone delivery; Why the Young "have no money" 9:23 - Account Titling and Probate Avoidance 14:00 - Revocable Living Trusts 15:57 - Setting Beneficiaries on Assets 18:31 - How to Use TOD (Transfer on Death) 20:10 - Mistakes w IRA Beneficiaries 25:39 - The Benefits of Online Savings (adding/subtracting beneficiaries) 27:47 - Best Practices for Titling: Be Specific 29:46 - Naming Contingent Beneficiaries Hosted by RIA Advisors' Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan McCarty, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/GpH7q-IgPXs?feature=share -------- Watch our previous show, "Nvidia Says the AI Boom Is Just Getting Started, " https://youtube.com/live/lGSWXLw9dPY ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #EstatePlanning #InheritedIRA #RetirementPlanning #IRA #FinancialPlanning

    8-27-26 Nvidia Says the AI Boom Is Just Getting Started

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 27, 2026 46:02


    Nvidia delivered another blockbuster quarter, reporting record revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year ago, as demand for AI infrastructure continues to accelerate. But the bigger story may be what comes next. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down Nvidia's latest earnings, its extraordinary growth outlook, Blackwell and Vera Rubin demand, the massive buildout in AI infrastructure, and Nvidia's growing financial involvement across the AI ecosystem. We also examine the risks, including rising memory costs, margin pressure, enormous capital requirements, and questions about whether today's AI spending boom can deliver adequate returns. 0:00 INTRO 1:00 - Economic Recap & Multiplier Effect 6:31 - Market Push from NASDAQ 11:45 - Passwords, Needles & Rosso's toys 14:30 - NVIDIA Reports - Markets Respond 21:36 - How Ancillary Business Benefit from NVIDIA 24:03 - NVIDIA Stock Performance 25:32 - The Heat Map Game 27:25 - Portfolio Positioning & Nat Gas play 30:37 - The Economics of Gilligan's Island 35:33 - Productivity Factors of AI 38:04 - How Much Return on AI Investment will there be 39:57 - How Will AI be Transformative? 42:42 - We're All Investing in AI Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/lGSWXLw9dPY ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Fueling AI Data Centers: Behind The Meter Solutions- Part 1" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/fueling-ai-data-centers-behind-the-meter-solutions-part-1/ "Behind The Meter Solutions Investment Guide- Part 2" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/behind-the-meter-solutions-investment-guide-part-2/ "Productivity On Gilligan's Island: Episode 2" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/productivity-on-gilligans-island-episode-2/ "Bitcoin Up 22%: Has The Halving Cycle Begun?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bitcoin-up-22-has-the-halving-cycle-begun/ --- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "NASDAQ Technicals Are Turning Higher," https://youtu.be/33KMo6HoezY ------- Watch our previous show, "Are Today's Interest Rates Really That High?" https://youtube.com/live/lPCVe6O4LjM ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #NASDAQ #StockMarket #TechnologyStocks #MarketOutlook #Investing #Nvidia #NVDA #NvidiaEarnings #AIStocks

    8-27-26 NASDAQ Technicals Are Turning Higher | Before the Bell

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 27, 2026 4:23


    The NASDAQ is showing signs of technical improvement after five straight down days and a significant mean-reversion move. The 20-DMA has moved back above the 50-DMA, a rising trend line is developing, and improving momentum could put recent highs back in play. But this is not an "all clear" for technology stocks. September seasonality, a post-earnings data lull, Fed policy, and upcoming economic reports could keep markets choppy. We look at what the NASDAQ and semiconductor charts are signaling, where momentum may be headed next, and why investors should continue to manage risk despite improving technicals. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/33KMo6HoezY --- Articles mentioned in this report: "Bitcoin Up 22%: Has The Halving Cycle Begun?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bitcoin-up-22-has-the-halving-cycle-begun/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #NASDAQ #StockMarket #TechnologyStocks #MarketOutlook #Investing

    8-26-26 Q&A Wednesday: The Biggest Risk to Markets Now

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 26, 2026 58:42


    Markets are facing a growing list of risks as investors head into the final stretch of summer. Stocks are working through a slow-moving correction, Treasury yields remain elevated, technology leadership is being tested, and the Federal Reserve faces renewed questions about inflation and interest rates. Which risks actually matter for your portfolio, and which are mostly market noise? Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff answer your questions, live, as we break down the latest economic data, market signals, Fed policy expectations, bond yields, and geopolitical developments to separate the real threats from the headlines. 0:00 INTRO 1:00 - Dolly Parton's Passing 1:46 - NVDIA is the Big News Today - will move markets tomorrow 4:34 - Markets Rally and Hold 20-DMA; Mitigating Market Risk 6:38 - NVIDIA Preview 10:26 - Lance's Wardrobe 11:35 - Semi-conductor Strategies 14:44 - 401-k Rotation Strategies 19:52 - Looking at Interest Rate plays - what is your goal? 22:13 - Is the Globalization Narrative breaking down? (TV Pricing & Exporting Inflation, Importing Deflation) 27:46 - Modifying Cap Ex concept in AI business? 28:48 - If the Basis Trade blows up? 29:19 - Barbell Strategies for ten-year term (Value ETF's vs Momentum ETF's) 35:22 - 50-50 portfolio (eating cake every night & not gain weight) 37:47 - Etherium Price at EOY? (you've missed The Move for this year); it is a risk asset 40:01 - Stuck with TMF (leveraged ETF) What Would You Do From here? 44:51 - When a Company is sold, when to get out? 45:24 - Value vs growth 46:04 - NVIDIA, Market Cap Concentration, & Top Ten Stocks 49:01 - What Could Cause a Spike Higher in Yields? 51:50 - Stanley Drunkenmiller vs the Fed: Let the market dictate action 52:49 - Balanced Portfolios at age 80? 55:21 - Sectors most under-valued, over-looked, and over-valued? 56:38 - How much of investing proverbs/rules have come true? Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/tESc03T56K4?feature=share ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Think Like An Investor, Not A Speculator (Chapter 1 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/think-like-an-investor-chapter-1-of-5/ "Investor Psychology Is Sabotaging Your Returns (Chapter 2 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investor-psychology-is-sabotaging-your-returns-chapter-2-of-5/ "Normal Interest Rates: What The Debt Panic Gets Wrong" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/normal-interest-rates-what-the-debt-panic-gets-wrong/ "Three Percent Real TIPS Yields: Boring But Valuable" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/three-percent-real-tips-yields-boring-but-valuable/ -------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "NVIDIA Earnings Put Market Support to the Test," https://youtu.be/5Dkn-dNU9wA ------- Watch our previous show, "Are Today's Interest Rates Really That High?" https://youtube.com/live/lPCVe6O4LjM ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #NVIDIA #StockMarket #NVDA #Investing #MarketOutlook #FederalReserve #Investing #InterestRates

    8-26-26 NVIDIA Earnings Put Market Support to the Test | Before the Bell

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 26, 2026 5:01


    Markets are holding the 20-day moving average, but momentum remains under pressure as September seasonality and midterm election risk approach. Investors may want to rebalance, raise stops, and keep some cash available as the market consolidates. Tonight, NVIDIA earnings take center stage. With the stock already pulling back, options pricing in a roughly 5% move, and key technical support below, could NVIDIA's report trigger the next breakout, or will disappointment send shares toward deeper support? Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/5Dkn-dNU9wA --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #NVIDIA #StockMarket #NVDA #Investing #MarketOutlook

    8-25-26 Are Today's Interest Rates Really That High?

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 25, 2026 51:14


    Interest rates are rising, long-term bond prices have pulled back, and investors are once again worried that higher Treasury yields could threaten the economy and markets. But what if today's rates aren't historically high at all? After more than a decade of near-zero rates and easy monetary policy, investors may have become accustomed to an environment that was anything but normal. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn put today's interest rates into historical perspective, examine what higher yields really say about inflation, growth, debt, and deficits, and explain why a 5% long-term Treasury yield may not be the crisis many headlines suggest. We'll also look at what the changing rate environment means for stocks, bonds, portfolio risk, and investors deciding whether weakness in longer-duration bonds is a warning—or an opportunity. 0:00 INTRO 1:04 - Weekly Preview & Treasury General Account Bond Buy Backs 2:04 - Shorting Treasuries & The Hedge Fund Trade 5:37 - Markets Going Thru a Slow-Motion Correction 8:24 - BitCoin Rallies on Bessent Announcement 11:52 - Bonds & Rates: Brake or Break? 19:08 - Rates Are Normal 21:56 - The Primary Determinants that Set Loan Rates (Economic Composite Index) 25:46 - The Effect of Debt on Economy 29:46 - The Negative Multiplier, Measured (Gov't. Debt vs Household Debt) 33:33 - The S&P in 2008? When Markets are Unsustainable 36:58 - $40-trillion (and "Zero") & Shock and Awe 39:40 - Retirees Get Paid to own Treasuries (How Much to Allocate?) 41:57 - Is the Dollar Losing Value? 44:45 - There is Always a Buyer for Debt (Primary Dealers) 47:56 - Fasting w Lance & Christina Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/lPCVe6O4LjM ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Normal Interest Rates: What The Debt Panic Gets Wrong" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/normal-interest-rates-what-the-debt-panic-gets-wrong/ -------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "Market Correction: Patience Pays," https://youtu.be/w_BcRBJ00Io ------- Watch our previous show, "Is the Basis Trade Distorting Bond Yields?" https://youtube.com/live/UtY2oV1kkXc ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #SP500 #Bitcoin #MarketCorrection #InterestRates #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #Bitcoin #FederalReserve

    8-25-26 Market Correction: Patience Pays | Before the Bell

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 25, 2026 5:31


    Markets are working through a slow, controlled correction as seasonal weakness and momentum sell signals pressure the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. With September approaching, investors may be tempted to react as some positions lag while others rally. The key is patience. Corrections are a normal part of the market cycle, and sometimes the best move is no move at all. Plus, Bitcoin's sharp rally has pushed short-term momentum and relative strength to extreme overbought levels. We discuss why taking some profits now, then waiting for a pullback before adding exposure, may help manage risk. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/w_BcRBJ00Io --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #SP500 #Bitcoin #MarketCorrection

    8-24-26 Is the Basis Trade Distorting Bond Yields?

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 24, 2026 43:26


    Are Treasury yields still sending investors a reliable signal about inflation, growth, and Federal Reserve policy, or is the massive basis trade distorting the message? Lance Roberts explains how the basis trade works, why it matters for Treasury yields, and whether investors can still trust the bond market as an economic and market signal. 0:00 INTRO 1:02 - Kevin Warsh + Nvidia Report = Volatility? 5:28 - Market Deviations & Bollinger Bands 13:07 - The Basis Trade & Interest Rates 16:17 - What is a Basis Point? 21:31 - Are Interest Rates Really Telling us What's Going on in Markets? 22:42 - What's the Risk/What Happens When Basis Trade Unwinds? 26:47 - Does Kevin Warsh have Enough Time to Fix It? 28:28 - What Happened on Liberation Day 29:39 - What to Do About It 34:29 - The Psychology of Buyers & Sellers: The Houston Housing Market 37:85 - The Index is the Index Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/UtY2oV1kkXc ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Basis Trade: Is The Bond Market Signal Distorted?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-basis-trade-is-the-bond-market-signal-distorted/ "Investor Psychology Is Sabotaging Your Returns (Chapter 2 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investor-psychology-is-sabotaging-your-returns-chapter-2-of-5/ "Think Like An Investor, Not A Speculator (Chapter 1 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/think-like-an-investor-chapter-1-of-5/ -------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "Bollinger Bands Are Flashing a Warning," https://youtu.be/HA5OZbl3a4Y ------- Watch our previous show, "The Best Retirement Head Start for Your Kids," https://youtube.com/live/IqyxMopn1Uw?feature=share ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #BollingerBands #Investing #MarketOutlook #PortfolioManagement #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #BasisTrade #FederalReserve

    8-24-26 Bollinger Bands Are Flashing a Warning | Before the Bell

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 24, 2026 6:26


    Markets are pulling back toward key moving averages as momentum sell signals emerge across the S&P 500, Nasdaq, small-caps, and mid-caps. Lance Roberts explains how Bollinger Bands and standard deviations can identify overbought and oversold conditions, guide portfolio rebalancing, and help investors determine when to trim positions, raise cash, or look for buying opportunities. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/HA5OZbl3a4Y --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #BollingerBands #Investing #MarketOutlook #PortfolioManagement

    8-21-26 The Best Retirement Head Start for Your Kids

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 21, 2026 35:33


    Giving your kids a financial head start may be one of the most valuable lessons you can teach them. Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty explain how a Custodial Roth IRA can help children with earned income start building tax-free retirement wealth early, while learning the importance of saving, investing, and paying themselves first. We also discuss Roth IRA withdrawal rules, the potential transition from Trump Accounts to Roth IRAs, and how even a lemonade stand can become a lesson in long-term wealth building. Plus, we look back at Wall Street history, the value of financial writing, and why understanding the past can make you a better investor. 0:00 INTRO 0:21 - Magic Mike & $100 Hot Dogs 2:46 - Wall Street Magazines from Days of Yore 4:36 - The story of Richard & Cecilia Wycoff & Wall Street Magazine 10:50 - The best knowledge is history 17:17 - Giving Kids a Head Start on Retirement w Custodial Roth IRA's 19:22 - Benefits of Jump-starting Retirement 21:51 - Getting on the Pay-Yourself-First track 22:56 - Content Creators & Demise of Writing 25:49 - Withdrawing Contributions from Roth IRA's before 59-1/2 27:13 - Converting Trump Accounts to Roth & J. G. Wentworth 29:57 - Money Lessons from Roths & Lemonade Stands Hosted by RIA Advisors' Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan McCarty, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/IqyxMopn1Uw?feature=share ------- Watch our previous show, "Is Treasury Bailing Out the Bond Market?" https://youtube.com/live/9qhjXZbxkxs ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #RothIRA #RetirementPlanning #InvestingForKids #FinancialPlanning #RichardWycoff #CeciliaWycoff #WallStreetMagazine

    8-20-26 Is Treasury Bailing Out the Bond Market?

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 20, 2026 43:47


    Is the Treasury stepping in to rescue the bond market, or is that the wrong way to interpret its purchases of long-term Treasuries? Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz examine why Treasury purchases are not necessarily the same as Federal Reserve quantitative easing, how issuing Treasury debt to fund an asset swap differs from creating new money, and what this could mean for bond yields, inflation, and investors. We'll also look at the changing relationship between Treasury bonds and gold. 0:00 INTRO 0:50 - Treasury Action & FOMC Meeting Minutes 4:19 - Market Rally on Debt Buy Back 10:03 - Are High Oil Prices Deflationary? 11:13 - Debt & GDP 13:53 - Federal Debt as % of GDP 17:51 - Selling Treasuries is Not a Problem 18:31 - What Happens if Gov't Stops Spending 20:55 - The Treasury Buy Back Plan 24:59 - The History of Buy Back Operations 28:12 - The Basis Trade 31:52 - The Term Premium Model 36:09 - What Would Cause Basis Trade to Unwind? 39:18 - When the Gov't Cuts Spending Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "Treasury Buybacks Spark a Market Bounce," https://youtu.be/pY-lAMlQo7M -------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/9qhjXZbxkxs ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The US Treasury Doubles Down On Buybacks" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-us-treasury-doubles-down-on-buybacks/ -------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday: Are Rising Rates a Market Warning?" https://youtu.be/j6w6g_kXQrU?si=zGfqusgrjAIu1jdN ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Medicare Planning: Everything You Need to Know Before You Enroll," Thursday, August 20, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/Qjx33M2tS4i4 --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #TreasuryYields #MarketVolatility #Investing #TreasuryBonds #BondMarket #GovernmentSpending #InterestRates

    8-20-26 Treasury Buybacks Spark a Market Bounce | Before the Bell

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 20, 2026 4:55


    Treasury debt buybacks helped push bond yields lower and stocks higher, but the market's technical setup still warrants caution. The 10-Year Treasury yield remains on a sell signal, while the S&P 500 is nearing a momentum sell signal with downside risk toward its 50-day moving average. Meanwhile, volatility remains extremely compressed, investor complacency is elevated, and cheap portfolio hedges could become increasingly valuable. With thin August trading and mid-term election uncertainty ahead, investors should manage exposure and prepare for a potential pickup in volatility before the stronger year-end seasonal period. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: hhttps://youtu.be/pY-lAMlQo7M --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Social Security Planning: More Income, Less Worry," Thursday, August 6, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/tQ3PS8hd64mt --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #TreasuryYields #MarketVolatility #Investing

    8-19-26 Q&A Wednesday: Are Rising Rates a Market Warning?

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 19, 2026 41:39


    More investors are turning to TikTok, YouTube, and other social-media platforms for financial advice. But how do you separate useful financial education from bad advice, speculation, and outright scams? Lance Roberts and Jonathan Penn discuss how to evaluate financial advice online, the warning signs investors should watch for, and why popularity, followers, and flashy lifestyles aren't substitutes for expertise. Social media can help people become better investors—but only if they know whom to trust. 0:00 INTRO 0:57 - FOMC Meeting Minutes Preview & Weaker Economic Data 3:26 - Will Earnings Tailwinds Fade in 2207? 5:12 - Market Deviations Continue - Downside Risk Remains 10:15 - Bond Yields & Abnormal Interest Rates (article coming) 16:45 - Why the National Debt is not a Factor in Interest Rates 19:42 - Momentum ETF's & Roth IRA's 27:47 - Shorting Strategies post-IPO? 30:10 - First Houses & Starter Homes 33:27 - Things Aren't That Bad... 37:37 - Buying Bonds and paying accrued interest 38:18 - Putting Money in 401-k 38:40 - Buying Energy Stocks Now? Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "September Rally Test Ahead" https://youtu.be/j6w6g_kXQrU?si=zGfqusgrjAIu1jdN -------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/9qhjXZbxkxs ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "SpaceX IPO: Should I Buy It, Or Wait?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/spacex-ipo-should-i-buy-it-or-wait/ "Leveraged ETFs: Math Often Trumps Hype" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/leveraged-etfs-math-often-trumps-hype/ "Think Like An Investor, Not A Speculator (Chapter 1 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/think-like-an-investor-chapter-1-of-5/ -------- Watch our previous show, "Can You Trust Financial Advice on Social Media? https://youtube.com/live/v6Wy7iLl-gQ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Medicare Planning: Everything You Need to Know Before You Enroll," Thursday, August 20, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/Qjx33M2tS4i4 --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #Investing #MarketOutlook #FederalReserve #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #SpaceX #HomeBuyers

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