Podcast appearances and mentions of michael lebowitz

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 29, 2026 47:41

The Federal Reserve is holding interest rates steady, keeping policy in a 3.5%–3.75% range. Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz examine how markets are reacting to Chair Jerome Powell's message, and break down what the Fed is signaling—and why it could fuel market volatility ahead. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Mega Reports & Fed Fallout 4:31 - Markets Struggle after 7,000 9:33 - Inflation, Truflation, & Labor 14:14 - Chances of Rate Changes Higher or Lower? 16:44 - Current Growth Spurt is Unsustainable 19:10 - No Mention of QT/QE 21:10 - Citadel Securities; Risk-on Indicator 23:14 - Margin Debt is Bullish for Markets 26:13 - Liquidity Shifts & Fed Watching 29:15 - Geopolitics, Mid-term Elections & Potential Gov't Shutdown 31:42 - Why Fed Policy Matters 34:02 - Are We In an AI Bubble 35:53 - Favorite Search Engine Rankings - Then & Now 38:23 - The AI Boom vs the Dot-com Bubble Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vX2vPQQp28 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "AI Bubble: History Says Caution Is Warranted" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/ai-bubble-history-says-caution-is-warranted/ ------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday, the YouTube Chatroom Free-for-all," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLaWDc-IGAw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Stall at 7,000: Breakout or Bull Trap?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meTHta-tC1o&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketOutlook #TechnicalAnalysis #RiskManagement #MarketSpeculation #InvestorDiscipline #FederalReserve #JeromePowell #InterestRates #MarketOutlook #MonetaryPolicy

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1-22-26 What Kevin Warsh Brings to the Fed

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 23, 2026 49:16

Betting markets are increasingly pointing to Kevin Warsh as a potential successor to Jerome Powell, with Kevin Hassett expected to remain in his White House role under Donald Trump. Which begs the question: What would a Warsh-led Federal Reserve actually bring to markets? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explore the possibilities of a Warsh Fed: Would such likely be more tolerant of volatility, rely less on emergency interventions, and place greater emphasis on valuation, fundamentals, and disciplined policy rules? 0:00 INTRO 0:18 - Earnings, Economics, & Imminent Greenland Deal 2:48 - Markets Break Trendline - Look for Volatility 8:22 - Greenland, Denmark, & Danish Bonds 15:10 - What the Media Doesn't Say About Bond Auctions 17:14 - Texas Winter & Nat Gas Futures 20:32 - Warsh vs Wallace as Fed Head 23:58 - Keep an Eye on Rick Rieder 26:14 - The Marriage of Blackrock & The Fed 27:52 - Markets are Driven by the Wrong Things 31:12 - The Reflation Narrative 34:29 - Speculation, ETF's & Fighting for the same Dollars 39:05 - The Gamification of Markets 41:29 - The Importance of Risk Management 45:00 - End of the 1st Half of the Secular Period Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4roSFzE3Ww&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Watch our previous show, "It's Q&A Day — and (almost) anything goes" here: https://www.youtube.com/live/jFDHVzdwNdo -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Stall at Resistance - Volatility Ahead?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EviI_k5gb8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketVolatility #TechnicalAnalysis #SP500 #RiskManagement #InvestingStrategy #FederalReserve #KevinWarsh #MarketVolatility #MonetaryPolicy #RiskManagement

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1-22-26 What Kevin Warsh Brings to the Fed

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 23, 2026 49:17

Betting markets are increasingly pointing to Kevin Warsh as a potential successor to Jerome Powell, with Kevin Hassett expected to remain in his White House role under Donald Trump. Which begs the question: What would a Warsh-led Federal Reserve actually bring to markets? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explore the possibilities of a Warsh Fed: Would such likely be more tolerant of volatility, rely less on emergency interventions, and place greater emphasis on valuation, fundamentals, and disciplined policy rules? 0:00 INTRO 0:18 - Earnings, Economics, & Imminent Greenland Deal 2:48 - Markets Break Trendline - Look for Volatility 8:22 - Greenland, Denmark, & Danish Bonds 15:10 - What the Media Doesn't Say About Bond Auctions 17:14 - Texas Winter & Nat Gas Futures 20:32 - Warsh vs Wallace as Fed Head 23:58 - Keep an Eye on Rick Rieder 26:14 - The Marriage of Blackrock & The Fed 27:52 - Markets are Driven by the Wrong Things 31:12 - The Reflation Narrative 34:29 - Speculation, ETF's & Fighting for the same Dollars 39:05 - The Gamification of Markets 41:29 - The Importance of Risk Management 45:00 - End of the 1st Half of the Secular Period Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4roSFzE3Ww&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Watch our previous show, "It's Q&A Day — and (almost) anything goes" here: https://www.youtube.com/live/jFDHVzdwNdo -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Stall at Resistance - Volatility Ahead?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EviI_k5gb8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketVolatility #TechnicalAnalysis #SP500 #RiskManagement #InvestingStrategy #FederalReserve #KevinWarsh #MarketVolatility #MonetaryPolicy #RiskManagement

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Is The Stock Market Undergoing A 'Great Rotation'? | Michael Lebowitz

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Play Episode Listen Later Jan 17, 2026 71:48

Recently, capital has been flowing out of the big Tech hyperscaler growth stocks and into previously unloved sectors like value, consumer staples, and mid- to small-cap stocks.Is this just an aberration before the Mag 7 resume their dominance?Or, is a secular rotation underway?Your portfolio's destiny will be shaped by the true answer to this question.Michael and I discuss whether indeed a Great Rotation is underway, as well his 2026 outlook for GDP growth, bonds, inflation, the US dollar and the Federal Reserve.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#inflation #bonds #federalreserve _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

1-15-26 Silver's Surge - Bubble or Fundamentals?

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 15, 2026 52:54

Can we classify Silver as a microbubble? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz take a disciplined, valuation-driven look at silver through the lens of post-2020 micro-bubble cycles. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Oil Prices Slide, CPI/PPI Moderate 8:15 - Index Performance Comparisons 14:33 - PPI/CPI Increase rate Cut Expectations 17:19 - The Risks of Reflation 20:48 - GDP Predictions? 23:08 - The Saga of the Silver Bubble 26:18 - Meme Stocks & SPAC's 29:57 - What's the Narrative in Silver? 31:41 - Silver, Gold, & Commodity Supply-Demand Imbalances 34:03 - Unlike God, Silver is a Critical Mineral 36:44 - Speculation in Silver? 38:25 - Portfolio Positioning & Position Sizing 47:19 - Don't Take Advice from the Guy that's Selling 48:17 - Market Behavior Commentary 49:54 - Markets' Rotation into Anything that's not a Mag-7 Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bbdac54510I&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Watch our previous show, "Q & A Wednesday - Your Money & Market Questions Answered " here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAYfTLVka6w&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Rotation Is Broadening — But Risks Remain," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KS2mSWm16qg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRotation #SmallCapStocks #MarketBreadth #RiskManagement #InvestingStrategy#SilverMarket #PreciousMetals #MarketBubbles #InvestorRisk #MacroInvesting

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1-15-26 Silver's Surge: Bubble or Fundamentals?

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 15, 2026 52:55

Can we classify Silver as a microbubble? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz take a disciplined, valuation-driven look at silver through the lens of post-2020 micro-bubble cycles. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Oil Prices Slide, CPI/PPI Moderate 8:15 - Index Performance Comparisons 14:33 - PPI/CPI Increase rate Cut Expectations 17:19 - The Risks of Reflation 20:48 - GDP Predictions? 23:08 - The Saga of the Silver Bubble 26:18 - Meme Stocks & SPAC's 29:57 - What's the Narrative in Silver? 31:41 - Silver, Gold, & Commodity Supply-Demand Imbalances 34:03 - Unlike God, Silver is a Critical Mineral 36:44 - Speculation in Silver? 38:25 - Portfolio Positioning & Position Sizing 47:19 - Don't Take Advice from the Guy that's Selling 48:17 - Market Behavior Commentary 49:54 - Markets' Rotation into Anything that's not a Mag-7 Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bbdac54510I&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Watch our previous show, "Q & A Wednesday - Your Money & Market Questions Answered " here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAYfTLVka6w&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Rotation Is Broadening — But Risks Remain," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KS2mSWm16qg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRotation #SmallCapStocks #MarketBreadth #RiskManagement #InvestingStrategy#SilverMarket #PreciousMetals #MarketBubbles #InvestorRisk #MacroInvesting

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1-8-26 2026 Market Forecasts - Why Wall Street Gets It Wrong

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 8, 2026 47:42

Every year, Wall Street rolls out confident forecasts for where the S&P 500 will end the year—and every year those projections are treated as actionable insight. For 2026, analyst expectations cluster around modestly positive returns, even as valuations sit near historical extremes and macro risks continue to build. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explain why year-ahead market forecasts are largely an exercise in false precision. Instead of offering a price target with zero confidence, we walk through the key forces that are likely to shape markets in 2026—including stretched valuations, liquidity injections disguised as “reserve management,” the Federal Reserve leadership transition, midterm elections, fiscal uncertainty, AI-driven capital spending, tariffs, geopolitics, and rising sovereign debt risks. We also examine historical market behavior to provide perspective on drawdowns, winning streaks, and why valuations are a poor short-term timing tool but an excellent long-term risk signal. Finally, we discuss why flexibility, discipline, and risk management matter far more than guessing an index level twelve months in advance. If you are an investor trying to navigate uncertainty without relying on headlines or optimistic forecasts, this discussion provides the framework you need to think more clearly about markets in 2026. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Betting on Anything, Healthcare Subsidies, HSA's, & Housing Bans 8:15 - Roll-of in Markets 12:42 - Guessing at 2026 Markets 20:35 - Think About the Known; Consider the Unknown 22:59 - Quantitative Easing & Chart Crime 25:09 - The Powell Exit & Midterm Elections 28:21 - Will Europe Keep Dumping Money into US Markets? 29:55 - AI Infrastructure Boom & New Technologies 32:02 - Our Process for Managing Market Rotations 35:14 - SCOTUS' Tariff Ruling & Trump's Plan-B 37:10 - Return of the Yen Carry Trade 38:50 - Smart Money Has Already Considered the Risks 42:08 - Don't Get Too Comfortable with Narratives Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQA10SrDk3s&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "2026 Forecast: Tis The Season For Wild Guesses" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/2026-forecast-tis-the-season-for-wild-guesses/ -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Sector Rotation Quietly Begins," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6zc2wXLn5o&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Open Chat Q&A: Markets, Earnings, Taxes & Portfolio Strategy," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGgxAtaZIOI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketUpdate #SectorRotation #StockMarketNews #EconomicData #MarketVolatility #MarketOutlook2026 #StockMarketRisk #InvestorDiscipline #FedPolicy #ValuationsMatter

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1-8-26 2026 Market Forecasts: Why Wall Street Gets It Wrong

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 8, 2026 47:43

Every year, Wall Street rolls out confident forecasts for where the S&P 500 will end the year—and every year those projections are treated as actionable insight. For 2026, analyst expectations cluster around modestly positive returns, even as valuations sit near historical extremes and macro risks continue to build. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explain why year-ahead market forecasts are largely an exercise in false precision. Instead of offering a price target with zero confidence, we walk through the key forces that are likely to shape markets in 2026—including stretched valuations, liquidity injections disguised as "reserve management," the Federal Reserve leadership transition, midterm elections, fiscal uncertainty, AI-driven capital spending, tariffs, geopolitics, and rising sovereign debt risks. We also examine historical market behavior to provide perspective on drawdowns, winning streaks, and why valuations are a poor short-term timing tool but an excellent long-term risk signal. Finally, we discuss why flexibility, discipline, and risk management matter far more than guessing an index level twelve months in advance. If you are an investor trying to navigate uncertainty without relying on headlines or optimistic forecasts, this discussion provides the framework you need to think more clearly about markets in 2026. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Betting on Anything, Healthcare Subsidies, HSA's, & Housing Bans 8:15 - Roll-of in Markets 12:42 - Guessing at 2026 Markets 20:35 - Think About the Known; Consider the Unknown 22:59 - Quantitative Easing & Chart Crime 25:09 - The Powell Exit & Midterm Elections 28:21 - Will Europe Keep Dumping Money into US Markets? 29:55 - AI Infrastructure Boom & New Technologies 32:02 - Our Process for Managing Market Rotations 35:14 - SCOTUS' Tariff Ruling & Trump's Plan-B 37:10 - Return of the Yen Carry Trade 38:50 - Smart Money Has Already Considered the Risks 42:08 - Don't Get Too Comfortable with Narratives Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQA10SrDk3s&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "2026 Forecast: Tis The Season For Wild Guesses" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/2026-forecast-tis-the-season-for-wild-guesses/ -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Sector Rotation Quietly Begins," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6zc2wXLn5o&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Open Chat Q&A: Markets, Earnings, Taxes & Portfolio Strategy," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGgxAtaZIOI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketUpdate #SectorRotation #StockMarketNews #EconomicData #MarketVolatility #MarketOutlook2026 #StockMarketRisk #InvestorDiscipline #FedPolicy #ValuationsMatter

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5 Reasons 2026 Will Be A Wild Ride, Likely Catching Investors By Surprise | Michael Lebowitz

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Play Episode Listen Later Dec 27, 2025 80:02

2025 started out with some market uncertainty. But once Liberation Day was past us, things rose pretty smoothly through the rest of the year.2026 is looking to be a much more wild ride.It's a mid-term election year. Tariffs may get struck down by the Supreme Court. Concerns about the AI bubble are growing. The yen carry trade may be in jeopardy.These are just a few of the destabilizers that could give Wall Street the yips in coming months.Portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz and I discuss the impact higher volatility could bring to stocks, as well as his outlook for the silver price, inflation, and bond yields. And as usual, he shares his firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#silverprice #volatility #inflation _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

12-18-25 Is the 60-40 Portfolio Dead?

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 18, 2025 54:34

For decades, the 60/40 portfolio—stocks and bonds—served as the foundation of balanced investing. Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz examine the growing global forces reshaping markets. While Wall Street has remained fixated on AI hyperscalers, major developments abroad are increasingly driving returns and risk. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Inflation Report Preview - Where's the Fed's Soft Landing? 3:05 - Markets working Through the Chop 9:56 - Top 10 Christmas Movies 13:24 - Inflation Expectations (Preview) 14:35 - The Fed Ends QT 20:35 - JP Morgan's Liquidity Crunch 22:53 - Is the Economy Slowing More than They Think? 24:03 - Is the 60/40 Portfolio Model Dead? 26:07 - CAPE-10 Predictions 27:05 - The All-weather Portfolio - Why to Own Bonds 31:31 - Double Digit Environment is Unsustainable 32:33 - How Are Bonds Not Safe?? 34:42 - BitCoin Does Not Belong in Your "Safe" Bucket 37:29 - Safe Money Bucket Composition 42:43 - Why Central Banks Hold Gold 48:15 - Bonds vs Real Estate 51:23 - Diversification Matters 52:01 - A note about REIT's Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XBlkxO7lfI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Oversold After Key Support Break," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ITeHTYtt1Q&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday: Live Market Questions & Investor Insights," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJV-vnHx4Eg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketVolatility #TechnicalAnalysis #OversoldMarkets #PortfolioManagement #SectorRotation #GlobalMarkets #PortfolioRisk #AssetAllocation #BondMarkets #MacroOutlook

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12-18-25 Is the 60/40 Portfolio Dead? Global Risks & Opportunities

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 18, 2025 54:35

For decades, the 60/40 portfolio—stocks and bonds—served as the foundation of balanced investing. Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz examine the growing global forces reshaping markets. While Wall Street has remained fixated on AI hyperscalers, major developments abroad are increasingly driving returns and risk. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Inflation Report Preview - Where's the Fed's Soft Landing? 3:05 - Markets working Through the Chop 9:56 - Top 10 Christmas Movies 13:24 - Inflation Expectations (Preview) 14:35 - The Fed Ends QT 20:35 - JP Morgan's Liquidity Crunch 22:53 - Is the Economy Slowing More than They Think? 24:03 - Is the 60/40 Portfolio Model Dead? 26:07 - CAPE-10 Predictions 27:05 - The All-weather Portfolio - Why to Own Bonds 31:31 - Double Digit Environment is Unsustainable 32:33 - How Are Bonds Not Safe?? 34:42 - BitCoin Does Not Belong in Your "Safe" Bucket 37:29 - Safe Money Bucket Composition 42:43 - Why Central Banks Hold Gold 48:15 - Bonds vs Real Estate 51:23 - Diversification Matters 52:01 - A note about REIT's Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XBlkxO7lfI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Oversold After Key Support Break," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ITeHTYtt1Q&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday: Live Market Questions & Investor Insights," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJV-vnHx4Eg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketVolatility #TechnicalAnalysis #OversoldMarkets #PortfolioManagement #SectorRotation #GlobalMarkets #PortfolioRisk #AssetAllocation #BondMarkets #MacroOutlook

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12-11-25 Bifurcated Fed Cuts Rates - What's Next

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 11, 2025 46:43

The Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter point Wednesday, but the real story is the division behind the decision. For the first time since 2021, three Fed governors dissented--an uncommon break in policy unity that raises new questions about inflation progress, economic risk, and the path of monetary policy into 2026. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explain why the Fed cut now, what the dissent signals, and how a split vote may affect market volatility, yields, and expectations for future rate moves. We also look at how past dissent has aligned with turning points in policy cycles and what this could mean for portfolios as financial conditions continue to ease. Use the chapter markers below to jump to any topic. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - The Fed Giveth, Oracle Taketh Away 6:53 - Volatility on the Rise 11:25 - Adding Ultra for Mrs. Roberts 14:16 - Surprises from the Fed? 18:15 - Fed Statement Analysis (chart) 20:12 - Betting on Kevin Hassett 22:08 - QE or Not QE? 26:30 - Valuations are a Function of Sentiment 29:48 - When Will Markets Crash? 32:32 - The Break Between Value & Growth 35:32 - ETF Issueance & High Risk Offerings 38:52 - What Happens When Gold and Stocks Rise 41:12 - What is Your Goal for Your Portfolio? 42:52 - Coming Attractions Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bT1azosP1yk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Volatility After the Fed," is here: https://youtu.be/gnorFZc1qM8 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Bullish Case Or Bearish Backdrop" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bullish-case-or-bearish-backdrop/ -------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Live-chat Q&A Show" here: https://bit.ly/3KQlkIK -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MarketVolatility #NASDAQ #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FOMC #MarketOutlook #InvestingStrategy

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12-11-25 Bifurcated Fed Cuts Rates: What's Next?

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 11, 2025 46:44

The Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter point Wednesday, but the real story is the division behind the decision. For the first time since 2021, three Fed governors dissented--an uncommon break in policy unity that raises new questions about inflation progress, economic risk, and the path of monetary policy into 2026. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explain why the Fed cut now, what the dissent signals, and how a split vote may affect market volatility, yields, and expectations for future rate moves. We also look at how past dissent has aligned with turning points in policy cycles and what this could mean for portfolios as financial conditions continue to ease. Use the chapter markers below to jump to any topic. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - The Fed Giveth, Oracle Taketh Away 6:53 - Volatility on the Rise 11:25 - Adding Ultra for Mrs. Roberts 14:16 - Surprises from the Fed? 18:15 - Fed Statement Analysis (chart) 20:12 - Betting on Kevin Hassett 22:08 - QE or Not QE? 26:30 - Valuations are a Function of Sentiment 29:48 - When Will Markets Crash? 32:32 - The Break Between Value & Growth 35:32 - ETF Issueance & High Risk Offerings 38:52 - What Happens When Gold and Stocks Rise 41:12 - What is Your Goal for Your Portfolio? 42:52 - Coming Attractions Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bT1azosP1yk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Volatility After the Fed," is here: https://youtu.be/gnorFZc1qM8 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Bullish Case Or Bearish Backdrop" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bullish-case-or-bearish-backdrop/ -------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Live-chat Q&A Show" here: https://bit.ly/3KQlkIK -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MarketVolatility #NASDAQ #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FOMC #MarketOutlook #InvestingStrategy

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12-4-25 Fed Regime Change - Is Groupthink Finally Ending?

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 4, 2025 46:35

Is the era of Fed groupthink finally coming to an end? For over a decade, the Federal Reserve has operated under a powerful consensus framework—one where dissent has been rare and the Chair's view has dominated policy outcomes. But shifting politics, rising dissenting votes, and increasing disagreements among FOMC members may signal a new regime change at the Fed. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down: 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - ISM Report Shows Abnormality of Markets 4:45 - Markets Prep for Year End Rally 9:33 - 2026 Economic Summit Tease 10:32 - Will Kevin Hassett Be the Next Fed Chairman? 13:25 - Is Fed Groupthink Ending? 16:13 - How a Split Fed Vote Could Affect Markets 18:02 - How About a Pre-2000 Fed? 24:08 - "Reserve Management" is Code for QE0:35 - It's All About Liquidity 27:01 - Data Center Power Ramp-up 29:56 - E-mail: Tariff Decision Impact on Markets 33:11 - What is the Impact of Rate Changes on the US Dollar? 36:17 - Inflation Remains 37:04 - The Shifting Narratives - AI & Debt 39:08 - Narratives are Rationalizations for What's Happening 43:28 - Market Breadth is not Great Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvNL-iyGgj0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Fed Regime Change: Groupthink May Be Ending" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/fed-regime-change-groupthink-may-be-ending/ -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Volatility May Precede Santa Claus Rally," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnOnz8np7ps&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Trump Accounts Explained: Who Qualifies for the Dell Deal?" here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdOXH7vQrt8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SantaClausRally #StockMarketToday #MarketVolatility #YearEndRally #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #FOMC #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #MarketLiquidity

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12-4-25 Fed Regime Change: Is Groupthink Finally Ending?

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 4, 2025 46:36

Is the era of Fed groupthink finally coming to an end? For over a decade, the Federal Reserve has operated under a powerful consensus framework—one where dissent has been rare and the Chair's view has dominated policy outcomes. But shifting politics, rising dissenting votes, and increasing disagreements among FOMC members may signal a new regime change at the Fed. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down: 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - ISM Report Shows Abnormality of Markets 4:45 - Markets Prep for Year End Rally 9:33 - 2026 Economic Summit Tease 10:32 - Will Kevin Hassett Be the Next Fed Chairman? 13:25 - Is Fed Groupthink Ending? 16:13 - How a Split Fed Vote Could Affect Markets 18:02 - How About a Pre-2000 Fed? 24:08 - "Reserve Management" is Code for QE0:35 - It's All About Liquidity 27:01 - Data Center Power Ramp-up 29:56 - E-mail: Tariff Decision Impact on Markets 33:11 - What is the Impact of Rate Changes on the US Dollar? 36:17 - Inflation Remains 37:04 - The Shifting Narratives - AI & Debt 39:08 - Narratives are Rationalizations for What's Happening 43:28 - Market Breadth is not Great Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvNL-iyGgj0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Fed Regime Change: Groupthink May Be Ending" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/fed-regime-change-groupthink-may-be-ending/ -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Volatility May Precede Santa Claus Rally," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnOnz8np7ps&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Trump Accounts Explained: Who Qualifies for the Dell Deal?" here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdOXH7vQrt8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SantaClausRally #StockMarketToday #MarketVolatility #YearEndRally #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #FOMC #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #MarketLiquidity

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11-27-25 Thanksgiving Day Special - Market Cycles, Tariff Checks, & 50-Year Mortgages

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 27, 2025 34:28

Full market cycles matter more today than at any point in the last 15 years. Lance Roberts breaks down why valuations, history, and market structure all point to a simple truth: Every bull market is only half the story. The other half is the bear. Lance's approach isn't bullish or bearish. It's risk-focused. Your job as an investor isn't to predict the next crash—it's to avoid catastrophic losses that erase years of gains during the completion of a full market cycle. Lance and Danny Ratliff ponder Tariff Rebates and 50-year mortgages, and Lance and Michael Lebowitz pontificate on what Michael would do if he ran the Fed. Happy Thanksgiving, y'all! 0:00 - INTRO 0:18 - Full market Cycles Encompass Bulls & Bears 4:54 - A History of Markets' Performance 6:33 - Market Cycles Have Rhythm - The Wycoff Cycles 8:39 - There is No Evidence of Imminent Crash 10:14 - Full market Cycle Analyses 11:50 - Navigating Markets Now 14:25 - Betting Against Buffett 17:33 - Market Dynamics Can Drive Bull Markets for a While 20:12 - Tariff Rebates & 50-Year Mortgages 37:42 - What Would Michael Do (if he was Fed Chairman)

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11-20-25 How The Fed Deals Liquidity - The Monetary Toolbox

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 20, 2025 43:11

How does the Federal Reserve actually supply liquidity to the financial system? And why have markets become so dependent on the Fed since 2008? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down the complete Fed liquidity toolkit—from QE and QT to the Standing Repo Facility, IORB, ON RRP, OMO, and the Discount Window—and explain why these tools create the “floor and ceiling” of overnight rates. 0:00 - INTRO 0:18 - Nvidia Kill It; Rate Cut Odds Decline 4:06 - Markets Under Pressure; Setting Up for Rally 10:29 - Markets' Post-Nvidia Relief Valve 15:53 - Oracle, CoreWeave, and CDS's Explained 18:24 - Is There Enough Credit to Fund AI Buildouts? 20:30 - Financial Markets are Like Consumers - they'll find the money 22:16 - Begging for ETF's - Be careful what you ask for 25:20 - Centralized Financial Markets are Swallowing BitCoin 28:24 - How the Fed Controls Liquidity 30:11 - Why is There Stress in the Liquidity Markets? 37:18 - The Linkage Between Liquidty & Function of Economy 39:04 - The Fed is Closer to QE Than Anyone Thinks 39:54 - Today's YouTube Poll 41:14 - What Will Markets Do Today?

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11-20-25 How The Fed Deals Liquidity: The Monetary Toolbox

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 20, 2025 43:12

How does the Federal Reserve actually supply liquidity to the financial system? And why have markets become so dependent on the Fed since 2008? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down the complete Fed liquidity toolkit—from QE and QT to the Standing Repo Facility, IORB, ON RRP, OMO, and the Discount Window—and explain why these tools create the "floor and ceiling" of overnight rates. 0:00 - INTRO 0:18 - Nvidia Kill It; Rate Cut Odds Decline 4:06 - Markets Under Pressure; Setting Up for Rally 10:29 - Markets' Post-Nvidia Relief Valve 15:53 - Oracle, CoreWeave, and CDS's Explained 18:24 - Is There Enough Credit to Fund AI Buildouts? 20:30 - Financial Markets are Like Consumers - they'll find the money 22:16 - Begging for ETF's - Be careful what you ask for 25:20 - Centralized Financial Markets are Swallowing BitCoin 28:24 - How the Fed Controls Liquidity 30:11 - Why is There Stress in the Liquidity Markets? 37:18 - The Linkage Between Liquidty & Function of Economy 39:04 - The Fed is Closer to QE Than Anyone Thinks 39:54 - Today's YouTube Poll 41:14 - What Will Markets Do Today?

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Stocks Becoming More Volatile Due To Growing Liquidity Shortfall | Michael Lebowitz

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Play Episode Listen Later Nov 15, 2025 112:48

Volatility returned to the stock market this week.Partly due to growing concerns about the sustainability of the AI spending boom.Partly due to further stresses building in the credit market.And also due to a growing shortfall of liquidity.Portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz and I discuss each of these in depth in this week's Market Recap.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#artificialintelligence #federalreserve #liquidity _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

11-13-25 QE Is Coming - Why Fed Liquidity Now Runs the Entire Market

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 13, 2025 41:33

The scent of QE is back. With overnight funding markets flashing early stress and NY Fed President John Williams hinting at “gradual asset purchases,” it's clear: the liquidity cycle is turning again. But the real question is why markets have become so dependent on the Fed in the first place. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down how the 2008 financial crisis fundamentally rewired market plumbing, sidelined private liquidity providers, and turned the Federal Reserve into the primary—and often the only—source of liquidity in the financial system. 0:00 - INTRO 0:20 - Government Shutdown Concludes - Deluge of Data to Follow 3:04 - Dow 48,000 9:43 - Will the Fed Cut Rates? 13:21 - Why the Rush to Cut Rates? 17:14 - What's Causing Turmoil at the Fed? 20:42 - What Changed w Bank Reserves? 24:31 - Capital Rules, Liquidity Rules, & Disincentives 26:20 - Breaking the Buck 28:45 - The Fed-led Liquidity Regime 30:32 - What Are the Drivers of Elevated Valuations? 34:10 - When the Government Spends Money... 37:42 - What Would Michael Do (if he was Fed Chairman)

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11-13-25 QE Is Coming: Why Fed Liquidity Now Runs the Entire Market

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 13, 2025 41:34

The scent of QE is back. With overnight funding markets flashing early stress and NY Fed President John Williams hinting at "gradual asset purchases," it's clear: the liquidity cycle is turning again. But the real question is why markets have become so dependent on the Fed in the first place. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down how the 2008 financial crisis fundamentally rewired market plumbing, sidelined private liquidity providers, and turned the Federal Reserve into the primary—and often the only—source of liquidity in the financial system. 0:00 - INTRO 0:20 - Government Shutdown Concludes - Deluge of Data to Follow 3:04 - Dow 48,000 9:43 - Will the Fed Cut Rates? 13:21 - Why the Rush to Cut Rates? 17:14 - What's Causing Turmoil at the Fed? 20:42 - What Changed w Bank Reserves? 24:31 - Capital Rules, Liquidity Rules, & Disincentives 26:20 - Breaking the Buck 28:45 - The Fed-led Liquidity Regime 30:32 - What Are the Drivers of Elevated Valuations? 34:10 - When the Government Spends Money... 37:42 - What Would Michael Do (if he was Fed Chairman)

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11-10-25 The Rocket Market - AI, Risk, and What Comes Next - Tom Thornton Interview

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 10, 2025 59:29

Markets have rocketed higher for six straight months — but how long can it last? Hedgefund Telemetry founder, Tom Thornton joins Lance Roberts to unpack the forces driving this “Rocket of a Stock Market.” From AI euphoria and sector rotation to passive indexing risks and the Fed's impact on valuations, we dig into what's really happening under the surface. 0:18 - INTRO 2:50 - The Rocket of a Stock Market 5:37 - Market Volatility & Opportunity in AI I7:14 - Interning During the Crash of '87 8:21 - Forward Earnings Expectations 9:35 - The Broadening in the Market - Energy, Materials, Consumer Staples 11:42 - Sector Rotation is a Real Thing - What if AI comes under pressure? 13:26 - Market Cap Concentration Concerns 16:02 - The Y2K Panic Buying pulling forward consumption - Similar in AI? 17:50 - Tracking Investor Sentiment (Bullish Sentiment chart) 20:36 - Tom DeMark Indicators - S&P and NASDAQ 100 PE Multiples (Chart) 23:03 - When S&P is Within 5% of ATH... (chart) 24:30 - Most-shorted Baskets (chart) - showing what speculators are buying 27:30 - Mag 7 daily & Weekly (chart) 31:35 - What Technicals Tell Us about Managing Risk 33:18 - Valuations at Elevated Levels: Apple & Nvidia (chart) 36:01 - Multiples that make no sense - Palantir & Tesla (chart) 36:55 - Waymo vs Tesla 39:15 - This Level of Concentration is New (chart) 41:23 - US Households are "All In" and Leveraged (chart) 42:40 - Leveraged ETF Data 43:56 - Short Term Options trading is Gambling (chart) 45:43 - % of Stocks About the 20, 50, & 200-DMA (chart) 49:18 - 6-straight months of market upside: When do you run out of buyers? 50:30 - Expectations for EOY? Bubbles don't deflate; they pop. 52:17 - 2026 will be difficult to continue strong momentum without a decent correction 52:44 - Where's the risk? 56:18 - Levered Obesity Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42moSAfvL10&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarketAnalysis #AIBubble #InvestorSentiment #MarketVolatility #TomThornton

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11-10-25 The Rocket Market - AI Risk and What Comes Next - Tom Thornton Interview

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 10, 2025 59:30

Markets have rocketed higher for six straight months — but how long can it last? Hedgefund Telemetry founder, Tom Thornton joins Lance Roberts to unpack the forces driving this "Rocket of a Stock Market." From AI euphoria and sector rotation to passive indexing risks and the Fed's impact on valuations, we dig into what's really happening under the surface. 0:18 - INTRO 2:50 - The Rocket of a Stock Market 5:37 - Market Volatility & Opportunity in AI I7:14 - Interning During the Crash of '87 8:21 - Forward Earnings Expectations 9:35 - The Broadening in the Market - Energy, Materials, Consumer Staples 11:42 - Sector Rotation is a Real Thing - What if AI comes under pressure? 13:26 - Market Cap Concentration Concerns 16:02 - The Y2K Panic Buying pulling forward consumption - Similar in AI? 17:50 - Tracking Investor Sentiment (Bullish Sentiment chart) 20:36 - Tom DeMark Indicators - S&P and NASDAQ 100 PE Multiples (Chart) 23:03 - When S&P is Within 5% of ATH... (chart) 24:30 - Most-shorted Baskets (chart) - showing what speculators are buying 27:30 - Mag 7 daily & Weekly (chart) 31:35 - What Technicals Tell Us about Managing Risk 33:18 - Valuations at Elevated Levels: Apple & Nvidia (chart) 36:01 - Multiples that make no sense - Palantir & Tesla (chart) 36:55 - Waymo vs Tesla 39:15 - This Level of Concentration is New (chart) 41:23 - US Households are "All In" and Leveraged (chart) 42:40 - Leveraged ETF Data 43:56 - Short Term Options trading is Gambling (chart) 45:43 - % of Stocks About the 20, 50, & 200-DMA (chart) 49:18 - 6-straight months of market upside: When do you run out of buyers? 50:30 - Expectations for EOY? Bubbles don't deflate; they pop. 52:17 - 2026 will be difficult to continue strong momentum without a decent correction 52:44 - Where's the risk? 56:18 - Levered Obesity Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarketAnalysis #AIBubble #InvestorSentiment #MarketVolatility #TomThornton

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11-6-25 Nvidia's Money Loop - Smart Move or Red Flag

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 6, 2025 47:33

Nvidia just took a $1 billion stake in Nokia—and Nokia plans to spend that money buying Nvidia's own AI chips. It's not the first time. Nvidia's done similar deals with OpenAI, CoreWeave, and xAI, fueling record demand for its GPUs. But is this smart strategy—or circular financing? Some call it vendor financing, others say it's round-tripping—a tactic that helped inflate the dot-com bubble two decades ago. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz unpack how the AI industry may be funding itself, why that's raising eyebrows, and what investors should watch for as the hype builds. 0:19 - Are Tariffs a Tax? 4:03 - Buy-the-Dip'er's Continue their March 8:40 - Michael's Fed re-cap - Stealth QE? 14:08 - Where is All the Liquidity Going? 17:45 - What Will Trigger QE? 19:16 - The Fed's QE Trap 21:13 - Stress in the REPO Market 24:15 - Market Froth & Valuations - the Mag-7 28:57 - Where the Debt is Piling Up in Anticipation of AI Build 33:32 - Nvidia's Infinite Money Loop 37:32 - What If Projections & Expectations Are Not Realized? 42:55 - Looking at CAPE (as Nvidia is 8% of Market) Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBMx8sckBhk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Nvidia Deals: Round Tripping Or Vendor Financing?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/nvidia-deals-round-tripping-or-vendor-financing/ -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Buy-the-Dip Isn't Dead Yet" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UU_zCk3hYhs&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our Previous Show, "6 Moves You Should Make Now Before RMDs Start," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0B99SnHJ4U&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=24s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BuyTheDip #SP500 #MarketBreadth #Investing #PremarketUpdate #Nvidia #ArtificialIntelligence #StockMarket #TechInvesting #FinancialEngineering

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11-6-25 Nvidia's Money Loop: Smart Move or Red Flag?

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 6, 2025 47:34

Nvidia just took a $1 billion stake in Nokia—and Nokia plans to spend that money buying Nvidia's own AI chips. It's not the first time. Nvidia's done similar deals with OpenAI, CoreWeave, and xAI, fueling record demand for its GPUs. But is this smart strategy—or circular financing? Some call it vendor financing, others say it's round-tripping—a tactic that helped inflate the dot-com bubble two decades ago. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz unpack how the AI industry may be funding itself, why that's raising eyebrows, and what investors should watch for as the hype builds. 0:19 - Are Tariffs a Tax? 4:03 - Buy-the-Dip'er's Continue their March 8:40 - Michael's Fed re-cap - Stealth QE? 14:08 - Where is All the Liquidity Going? 17:45 - What Will Trigger QE? 19:16 - The Fed's QE Trap 21:13 - Stress in the REPO Market 24:15 - Market Froth & Valuations - the Mag-7 28:57 - Where the Debt is Piling Up in Anticipation of AI Build 33:32 - Nvidia's Infinite Money Loop 37:32 - What If Projections & Expectations Are Not Realized? 42:55 - Looking at CAPE (as Nvidia is 8% of Market) Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBMx8sckBhk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Nvidia Deals: Round Tripping Or Vendor Financing?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/nvidia-deals-round-tripping-or-vendor-financing/ -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Buy-the-Dip Isn't Dead Yet" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UU_zCk3hYhs&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our Previous Show, "6 Moves You Should Make Now Before RMDs Start," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0B99SnHJ4U&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=24s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BuyTheDip #SP500 #MarketBreadth #Investing #PremarketUpdate #Nvidia #ArtificialIntelligence #StockMarket #TechInvesting #FinancialEngineering

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Stocks Likely To Trend Higher Into Year End? | Michael Lebowitz

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Play Episode Listen Later Oct 25, 2025 116:03

Have markets now made it safely through the seasonal risk of October?Portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz thinks they likely have, barring some surprise curveball.Which is why, should conditions remain steady, Michael sees stocks trending higher into year end.He and I discuss why, as well as inflation, housing, recession risk, bond yields, gold and the recent sports betting scandal, as well as his firm's latest trades in this week's Market RecapWORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#inflation #goldprice #recession _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Chronic Disease in America: Root Causes & Herbal Solutions with Drs. Michael & Noah Lebowitz

The Neurologic Wellness Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 25, 2025 69:53

In this episode, Dr. David Traster sits down with Dr. Michael Lebowitz, DC and Dr. Noah Lebowitz, DC of Supreme Nutrition Products to uncover what's really driving the chronic disease epidemic — and how herbal medicine + integrative strategies can help turn the tide.

10-23-25 Dollar Debasement - Reality Or Dangerous Narrative

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 23, 2025 56:08

Gold's rally has investors shouting “dollar debasement!” — but is the narrative real, or just a speculative illusion? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down the popular debasement argument and expose the facts behind the gold surge. From money supply trends to Fed policy and global confidence in the U.S. dollar, we separate the data from the hype. 0:19 - Stresses Emerging in Lower End of Economy 4:45 - The Oil Price Pop 6:35 -Good News - Bads News on Wall Street 10:38 -CPI Preview Despite Government Furlough 15:32 - Bond Market Expectations for Economic Growth 17:58 - The Challenge of Managing Money for the Future 20:11 - Wall Street is Selling 5x Leverage 24:47 - Liquidity is Showing Signs of Drying Up 26:42 - Debasement is Not a Room in Your House 29:42 - Where Does Money Come From? 30:45 - The Rise in Money Supply M-2 34:46 - The Loss of Confidence in the Dollar 40:00 - Central Banks are Hoarding Gold Reserves 46:21 - People Find Bubbles in Everything 48:15 - YouTube Chat - Banks Are Dumping Treasuries( ?) 49:28 - Is the Dollar Set to Strengthen? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Dollar Debasement: Reality Or A Dangerous Narrative?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/dollar-debasement-reality-or-a-dangerous-narrative/ -------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HNCz8Ogzxc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Russia Sanctions Ignite Oil Rally," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7DyLmRRWoQ&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our Previous Show, "Teaching Kids About Money: Lessons From Investing's Biggest Mistakes," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXyQMURvV40&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #OilRally #EnergyStocks #RussiaSanctions #MarketUpdate #PreMarket #DollarDebasement #GoldInvesting #MarketAnalysis #RealInvestmentAdvice

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10-23-25 Dollar Debasement: Reality Or Dangerous Narrative?

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 23, 2025 56:09

Gold's rally has investors shouting “dollar debasement!” — but is the narrative real, or just a speculative illusion? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down the popular debasement argument and expose the facts behind the gold surge. From money supply trends to Fed policy and global confidence in the U.S. dollar, we separate the data from the hype. 0:19 - Stresses Emerging in Lower End of Economy 4:45 - The Oil Price Pop 6:35 -Good News - Bads News on Wall Street 10:38 -CPI Preview Despite Government Furlough 15:32 - Bond Market Expectations for Economic Growth 17:58 - The Challenge of Managing Money for the Future 20:11 - Wall Street is Selling 5x Leverage 24:47 - Liquidity is Showing Signs of Drying Up 26:42 - Debasement is Not a Room in Your House 29:42 - Where Does Money Come From? 30:45 - The Rise in Money Supply M-2 34:46 - The Loss of Confidence in the Dollar 40:00 - Central Banks are Hoarding Gold Reserves 46:21 - People Find Bubbles in Everything 48:15 - YouTube Chat - Banks Are Dumping Treasuries( ?) 49:28 - Is the Dollar Set to Strengthen? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Dollar Debasement: Reality Or A Dangerous Narrative?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/dollar-debasement-reality-or-a-dangerous-narrative/ -------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HNCz8Ogzxc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Russia Sanctions Ignite Oil Rally," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7DyLmRRWoQ&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our Previous Show, "Teaching Kids About Money: Lessons From Investing's Biggest Mistakes," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXyQMURvV40&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #OilRally #EnergyStocks #RussiaSanctions #MarketUpdate #PreMarket #DollarDebasement #GoldInvesting #MarketAnalysis #RealInvestmentAdvice

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10-16-25 Capitalism - The Real Path to Prosperity

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 16, 2025 49:40

What makes capitalism the most successful wealth-building system in history? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explore how economic freedom, private ownership, and innovation incentives have lifted billions out of poverty and created unmatched prosperity. Why do societies that embrace free markets and entrepreneurship tend to enjoy higher standards of living, longer lifespans, and greater personal happiness? Lance & Michael examine the misconceptions surrounding capitalism—why critics often overlook the power of voluntary exchange and how wealth creation benefits everyone over time. 0:19 - Earnings Season is Underway w 75% Beat Rates 4:49 - Markets Maintain Bullish Trend w Lackluster Conviction 8:23 - The Itch to Twitch w Royalty-free Music 10:04 - The Fed Moves Forward - Net Impact to Bond Market 13:58 - There is No More Liquidity - Effects in Crypto Realm 17:03 - The Danger of Buying Crypto on Margin 19:57 - Leverage Works Worse in Reverse 24:04 - When the Markets Break 29:59 - Capitalism vs Socialism - the path to prosperity 31:49 - Quantifying Capitalism - The Economic Freedom Index 35:22 - Capitalism is Not an Equalization System 38:23 - The Global Decline of Economic Freedom 39:32 - Does Wealth Buy Happiness? 40:58 - Defining the "American Dream" 43:16 - Why Businesses Fail 44:51 - The Savanna Bananas 46:57 - Capitalism Is Not Fair

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10-16-25 Capitalism: The Real Path to Wealth & Happiness

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 16, 2025 49:41

What makes capitalism the most successful wealth-building system in history? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explore how economic freedom, private ownership, and innovation incentives have lifted billions out of poverty and created unmatched prosperity. Why do societies that embrace free markets and entrepreneurship tend to enjoy higher standards of living, longer lifespans, and greater personal happiness? Lance & Michael examine the misconceptions surrounding capitalism—why critics often overlook the power of voluntary exchange and how wealth creation benefits everyone over time. 0:19 - Earnings Season is Underway w 75% Beat Rates 4:49 - Markets Maintain Bullish Trend w Lackluster Conviction 8:23 - The Itch to Twitch w Royalty-free Music 10:04 - The Fed Moves Forward - Net Impact to Bond Market 13:58 - There is No More Liquidity - Effects in Crypto Realm 17:03 - The Danger of Buying Crypto on Margin 19:57 - Leverage Works Worse in Reverse 24:04 - When the Markets Break 29:59 - Capitalism vs Socialism - the path to prosperity 31:49 - Quantifying Capitalism - The Economic Freedom Index 35:22 - Capitalism is Not an Equalization System 38:23 - The Global Decline of Economic Freedom 39:32 - Does Wealth Buy Happiness? 40:58 - Defining the "American Dream" 43:16 - Why Businesses Fail 44:51 - The Savanna Bananas 46:57 - Capitalism Is Not Fair

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Has The Market Moved Too Far Too Fast? | Michael Lebowitz

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Play Episode Listen Later Oct 11, 2025 87:25

Portfolio manager Michael Lebowtiz looks back at the red-hot rise in stocks over the past two month and asks:Have stocks moved too far too fast?Can this continue without a pullback first?YOU CAN STILL GET THE 'LAST CHANCE TO SAVE' PRICE DISCOUNT FOR THE THOUGHTFUL MONEY FALL CONFERENCE AT https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference#investing #marketcorrection #aibubble _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

10-9-25 Recession & Bonds - What Happens When the NExt Downturn Hits

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 9, 2025 51:10

A recession usually means falling inflation and lower bond yields — good news for bond investors. But what if this time is different? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down how the next recession could flip the bond trade from bullish to bearish — and why government policy and fiscal stimulus may once again distort the relationship between inflation, yields, and bond prices. 0:19 - US Dollar Impact on Multi-national Companies 3:32 - Expectations for Market Reversal 9:45 - The AI Chase & Circular Money Flow 13:17 - Investments are Based on Hopeful Future Demand 16:28 - The Question of The How & The When 19:12 - The Nvidia - AMD - OpenAI Conundrum 20:07 - Natural Gas is the Only Answer for next 5-years 22:02 - Markets Are Chasing Whatever Goes Up 24:24 - The Lesson for Diversifying 26:15 - Do Bonds Protect Investors in the Next Recession? 32:18 - Preview of Daniel LaCalle Interview 35:38 - Gold is Fueling Dollar Debasement 39:43 - All Asset Classes will Reverse Eventually 43:33 - Is This Time Different? 50:06 - Coming Attractions

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10-9-25 Recession & Bonds - What Happens When the NExt Downturn Hits

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 9, 2025 51:11

A recession usually means falling inflation and lower bond yields — good news for bond investors. But what if this time is different? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down how the next recession could flip the bond trade from bullish to bearish — and why government policy and fiscal stimulus may once again distort the relationship between inflation, yields, and bond prices. 0:19 - US Dollar Impact on Multi-national Companies 3:32 - Expectations for Market Reversal 9:45 - The AI Chase & Circular Money Flow 13:17 - Investments are Based on Hopeful Future Demand 16:28 - The Question of The How & The When 19:12 - The Nvidia - AMD - OpenAI Conundrum 20:07 - Natural Gas is the Only Answer for next 5-years 22:02 - Markets Are Chasing Whatever Goes Up 24:24 - The Lesson for Diversifying 26:15 - Do Bonds Protect Investors in the Next Recession? 32:18 - Preview of Daniel LaCalle Interview 35:38 - Gold is Fueling Dollar Debasement 39:43 - All Asset Classes will Reverse Eventually 43:33 - Is This Time Different? 50:06 - Coming Attractions

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10-2-25 Who Needs the BLS? Shutdown Silences Jobs Repor

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 2, 2025 50:33

The government shutdown has silenced the Bureau of Labor Statistics, leaving investors without the monthly jobs report. But does Wall Street really need the BLS to keep moving? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explore what happens when government labor data goes missing, how traders adapt, and what alternative indicators might offer clues about the state of the economy. Lance and Mike also examine valuation metrics in the markets, and discuss claims that interest rates are still too high. Can the "AI Effect" sustaining markets and the economy continue into 2026? 0:19 - What the Economic Surprise Index is Saying 4:29 - Markets Hit All-time High. Again. 9:30 - When P/E Ratios are Elevated 12:25 - 1999 Valuations vs Now 13:52 - Is the AI Excitement Worth It? 17:47 - The Risk of Disappointment 21:57 - Government Shutdown Ramifications 24:03 - BLS vs ADP 27:31 - What JOLTS & IRS Data is Telling Us 33:44 - Stephen Miran - Are Rates Too High? 35:38 - The Fallacy of CPI 37:37 - Immigration Impact on Economic Growth 39:00 - The Natural Rate of Interest 41:26 - The Taylor Rule Explained 45:17 - Will AI Spending Be Able to Continue into 2026? 46:58 - The Resilience of the Market

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10-2-25 Who Needs the BLS? Shutdown Silences Jobs Report

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 2, 2025 50:34

The government shutdown has silenced the Bureau of Labor Statistics, leaving investors without the monthly jobs report. But does Wall Street really need the BLS to keep moving? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explore what happens when government labor data goes missing, how traders adapt, and what alternative indicators might offer clues about the state of the economy. Lance and Mike also examine valuation metrics in the markets, and discuss claims that interest rates are still too high. Can the "AI Effect" sustaining markets and the economy continue into 2026? 0:19 - What the Economic Surprise Index is Saying 4:29 - Markets Hit All-time High. Again. 9:30 - When P/E Ratios are Elevated 12:25 - 1999 Valuations vs Now 13:52 - Is the AI Excitement Worth It? 17:47 - The Risk of Disappointment 21:57 - Government Shutdown Ramifications 24:03 - BLS vs ADP 27:31 - What JOLTS & IRS Data is Telling Us 33:44 - Stephen Miran - Are Rates Too High? 35:38 - The Fallacy of CPI 37:37 - Immigration Impact on Economic Growth 39:00 - The Natural Rate of Interest 41:26 - The Taylor Rule Explained 45:17 - Will AI Spending Be Able to Continue into 2026? 46:58 - The Resilience of the Market

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Bonds Looking Bullish In The Near-Term | Michael Lebowitz

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Play Episode Listen Later Sep 25, 2025 66:13

Portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz joins us live to explain why he remains bullish on bonds here in the near term, as well as to take your Q&A#bonds #treasurybonds #inflation _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

9-25-25 Accommodative or Restrictive - Decoding the Fed's Latest Move

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 25, 2025 48:26

The Federal Reserve's latest move has investors asking: Is policy turning more accommodative or staying restrictive? Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz decode the Fed's decision, cut through the jargon, and explain what it means for markets, rates, and your money. We'll cover: What the Fed actually signaled last week The difference between accommodative and restrictive policy How markets typically react to these shifts Key risks for stocks, bonds, and the economy going forward Stay tuned as we unpack the Fed's message and put it into plain language for investors navigating uncertain markets. SEG-1a: On becoming "vintage" and Irrational Exuberance SEG-1b: Markets Appear to be Pulling Back SEG-2a: Jerome Powell's "Fairly Valued" Market Assessment SEG-2b:The Virtual Circle of the Markets & Economy SEG-2c: Quad Chart: Is the Fed too Easy or too Restrictive? SEG-2d: Markets Are Always Searching for a Narrative SEG-2e: AI Impact - A Double-edged Sword SEG-2f: What Credit Spread Compression is Telling Us SEG-2g: How We Manage in the Markets Now SEG-2h: The Fed Jargon Test Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, ww Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Accommodative Or Restrictive? Decoding The Fed's Latest Move" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/accommodative-or-restrictive-decoding-the-feds-latest-move/ -------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDHV6eIWGlI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Pullback or Just a Pause?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYd7d13Iu1Y&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our Previous Show, "Strange Recession Signals: What Markets & Odd Indicators are Telling us" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKIv4RZn6sE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarketToday #PreMarketUpdate #MarketPullback #EnergyStocks #StockMarketAnalysis #DecodingTheFed #FederalReserve #FedDecision #InterestRates #MarketOutlook #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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9/25/25 Accommodative Or Restrictive? Decoding The Fed's Latest Move

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 25, 2025 48:27

The Federal Reserve's latest move has investors asking: Is policy turning more accommodative or staying restrictive? Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz decode the Fed's decision, cut through the jargon, and explain what it means for markets, rates, and your money. We'll cover: What the Fed actually signaled last week The difference between accommodative and restrictive policy How markets typically react to these shifts Key risks for stocks, bonds, and the economy going forward Stay tuned as we unpack the Fed's message and put it into plain language for investors navigating uncertain markets. SEG-1a: On becoming "vintage" and Irrational Exuberance SEG-1b: Markets Appear to be Pulling Back SEG-2a: Jerome Powell's "Fairly Valued" Market Assessment SEG-2b:The Virtual Circle of the Markets & Economy SEG-2c: Quad Chart: Is the Fed too Easy or too Restrictive? SEG-2d: Markets Are Always Searching for a Narrative SEG-2e: AI Impact - A Double-edged Sword SEG-2f: What Credit Spread Compression is Telling Us SEG-2g: How We Manage in the Markets Now SEG-2h: The Fed Jargon Test Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, ww Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Accommodative Or Restrictive? Decoding The Fed's Latest Move" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/accommodative-or-restrictive-decoding-the-feds-latest-move/ -------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDHV6eIWGlI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Pullback or Just a Pause?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYd7d13Iu1Y&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our Previous Show, "Strange Recession Signals: What Markets & Odd Indicators are Telling us" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKIv4RZn6sE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarketToday #PreMarketUpdate #MarketPullback #EnergyStocks #StockMarketAnalysis #DecodingTheFed #FederalReserve #FedDecision #InterestRates #MarketOutlook #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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9-19-25 Gold, Jobs & the Fed - Axel Merk's Market Outlook

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 19, 2025 51:16

From the Fed's next move to the outlook for gold and gold miners, Axel Merk, CEO of Merk Investments, shares with Lance Roberts his take on today's biggest market risks: The largest jobs revision ever, the Fed's lagging response, why active management beats passive distortions, and how investors should think about risk, contrarian views, and the role of gold in their portfolios. 0:18 - Introduction of Alex Merk, CEO Merk Investments 2:01 - Annual revisions to BLS Employment Report - Largest negative revision to jobs in history. 4:20 - William Poole's explanation of BLS numbers & methodology and why markets pay attention. 6:13 - Herbert Hoover's belief in National Data for creating BLS numbers. 8:19 - The market trades off the data, whether you agree with it or not. 9:35 - How the Fed intervenes 10:55 - Kevin Walsh Fed candidate: The Fed needs more real-time data. They're always too late. 12:24 - Preview of September Fed meeting: The Fed should cut rates. 14:20 - What monetary policy is and/or should be (and what it is not) 16:36 - Correlation of asset classes...and not. 18:55 - How the Fed looks at inflation & asset prices (Gold & Gold Miners) 21:55 - Active Management is counter-cyclical 22:52 - Gold & Gold Miners as an asset class: Due for correction? 24:41 - The impact of passive investing driving asset prices; Index Investing & Price Distortion 26:29 - Rapidly depleting asset investments (Gold) 28:30 - Active Management Matters: Invest in management teams 30:14 - Importance of understanding the fundamentals of companies in which to invest 32:29 - Venture Capital-lite: Who Gets the Money? 34:42 - What Worries You Now? Having no investment process; a mediocre process is better than nothing 35:33 - If you can sleep with what you have... 37:25 - Why Technical Analysis works well in Gold space 40:20 - Risk Management in Good Times: The Value of Good Analysis 42:29 - The Value of Contrarian Views & Skin in the Game 45:29 - There is No Such Thing as an Investing in the End of the World; there's always the day after 48:07 - The Best Investment Advice Ever: Invest in Yourself Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/YeciboacIW0 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Volatility Looms Following Fed Cut," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TwqWqisbCyQ&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our Previous Show, "No Risk-free Path for the Fed" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sC5i-sZm73o&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=7s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Corporate Earnings Slowdown Signaled By Employment Data" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/corporate-earnings-slowdown-signaled-by-employment-data/ "Invest Or Index – Exploring 5-Different Strategies" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/invest-or-index-exploring-5-different-strategies/ "Portfolio Risk Management: Accepting The Hard Truth" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/portfolio-risk-management-accepting-the-hard-truth/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #AxelMerk #JobsReport #FederalReserve #GoldInvesting #MarketOutlook

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9-19-25 Gold Jobs the Fed - Axel Merks Market Outlook

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 19, 2025 51:17

From the Fed's next move to the outlook for gold and gold miners, Axel Merk, CEO of Merk Investments, shares with Lance Roberts his take on today's biggest market risks: The largest jobs revision ever, the Fed's lagging response, why active management beats passive distortions, and how investors should think about risk, contrarian views, and the role of gold in their portfolios. 0:18 - Introduction of Alex Merk, CEO Merk Investments 2:01 - Annual revisions to BLS Employment Report - Largest negative revision to jobs in history. 4:20 - William Poole's explanation of BLS numbers & methodology and why markets pay attention. 6:13 - Herbert Hoover's belief in National Data for creating BLS numbers. 8:19 - The market trades off the data, whether you agree with it or not. 9:35 - How the Fed intervenes 10:55 - Kevin Walsh Fed candidate: The Fed needs more real-time data. They're always too late. 12:24 - Preview of September Fed meeting: The Fed should cut rates. 14:20 - What monetary policy is and/or should be (and what it is not) 16:36 - Correlation of asset classes...and not. 18:55 - How the Fed looks at inflation & asset prices (Gold & Gold Miners) 21:55 - Active Management is counter-cyclical 22:52 - Gold & Gold Miners as an asset class: Due for correction? 24:41 - The impact of passive investing driving asset prices; Index Investing & Price Distortion 26:29 - Rapidly depleting asset investments (Gold) 28:30 - Active Management Matters: Invest in management teams 30:14 - Importance of understanding the fundamentals of companies in which to invest 32:29 - Venture Capital-lite: Who Gets the Money? 34:42 - What Worries You Now? Having no investment process; a mediocre process is better than nothing 35:33 - If you can sleep with what you have... 37:25 - Why Technical Analysis works well in Gold space 40:20 - Risk Management in Good Times: The Value of Good Analysis 42:29 - The Value of Contrarian Views & Skin in the Game 45:29 - There is No Such Thing as an Investing in the End of the World; there's always the day after 48:07 - The Best Investment Advice Ever: Invest in Yourself Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/YeciboacIW0 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Volatility Looms Following Fed Cut," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TwqWqisbCyQ&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our Previous Show, "No Risk-free Path for the Fed" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sC5i-sZm73o&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=7s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Corporate Earnings Slowdown Signaled By Employment Data" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/corporate-earnings-slowdown-signaled-by-employment-data/ "Invest Or Index – Exploring 5-Different Strategies" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/invest-or-index-exploring-5-different-strategies/ "Portfolio Risk Management: Accepting The Hard Truth" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/portfolio-risk-management-accepting-the-hard-truth/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #AxelMerk #JobsReport #FederalReserve #GoldInvesting #MarketOutlook

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9-18-25 No Risk-free Path for the Fed

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 18, 2025 42:36

The Federal Reserve cut rates on Wednesday, September 17, 2025 — but the path forward is anything but risk-free. Markets had already priced in much of the move, leaving investors to wonder if Powell's guidance will calm volatility or spark fresh uncertainty. Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz look at what the Fed's latest decision means for stocks, bonds, and the economy. Why Powell's words may matter more than the rate cut itself. The risks of inflation, slowing growth, and financial instability in the months ahead.

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9/18/25 No Risk-Free Path for the Fed

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 18, 2025 42:37

The Federal Reserve cut rates on Wednesday, September 17, 2025 — but the path forward is anything but risk-free. Markets had already priced in much of the move, leaving investors to wonder if Powell's guidance will calm volatility or spark fresh uncertainty. Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz look at what the Fed's latest decision means for stocks, bonds, and the economy. Why Powell's words may matter more than the rate cut itself. The risks of inflation, slowing growth, and financial instability in the months ahead.

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9-4-25 Stock Market Bubble - Extreme Valuations and What Investors Should Do Now

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 4, 2025 52:44

Stock valuations are at extreme levels — some call it a bubble, while others argue the bull market has more room to run. So, who's right? And more importantly, what should YOU do as an investor? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz expose the conflicting market narratives and explain why selling everything may not be the smartest move. Instead, they'll explore how active investing, technical signals, and disciplined risk management can help you capture gains while protecting your portfolio if the tide turns.

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9/4/25 Stock Market Bubble? Extreme Valuations & What Investors Should Know

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 4, 2025 52:45

Stock valuations are at extreme levels — some call it a bubble, while others argue the bull market has more room to run. So, who's right? And more importantly, what should YOU do as an investor? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz expose the conflicting market narratives and explain why selling everything may not be the smartest move. Instead, they'll explore how active investing, technical signals, and disciplined risk management can help you capture gains while protecting your portfolio if the tide turns.

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8-28-25 Nvidia Falls Short

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 28, 2025 52:59

Nvidia reported earnings with strong overall results, but Wall Street was not impressed. Despite solid forward guidance, a data center revenue miss rattled investors and sent the stock lower. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down Nvidia's earnings highlights, why guidance failed to wow the bulls, and what this means for tech stocks going forward; the ongoing soap opera that is the Federal Reserve: Jerome Powell, Lisa Cook, and dovish vs hawkish monetary policy stances; a discussion of the evolution of markets and investing as "entertainment." * Nvidia's Q2 2025 earnings breakdown * Why data center revenue is the market's key focus * How Wall Street is reacting to Nvidia's guidance * What this could mean for broader tech sector momentum

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8/28/25 Nvidia Falls Short

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 28, 2025 53:00

Nvidia reported earnings with strong overall results, but Wall Street was not impressed. Despite solid forward guidance, a data center revenue miss rattled investors and sent the stock lower. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down Nvidia's earnings highlights, why guidance failed to wow the bulls, and what this means for tech stocks going forward; the ongoing soap opera that is the Federal Reserve: Jerome Powell, Lisa Cook, and dovish vs hawkish monetary policy stances; a discussion of the evolution of markets and investing as "entertainment." * Nvidia's Q2 2025 earnings breakdown * Why data center revenue is the market's key focus * How Wall Street is reacting to Nvidia's guidance * What this could mean for broader tech sector momentum

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8-21-25 Speculative Frenzy - Fading or Re-fueling

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 21, 2025 47:28

Markets are showing signs of a speculative frenzy once again—but is the fire burning out or just getting started? Danny Ratliff & Michael Lebowitz break down the latest stock market speculation, shifts in investor sentiment 2025, and the risks of a potential market bubble forming. We'll look at how speculative trading trends are driving prices higher, what this means for long-term investors, and where financial market volatility could take markets next. If you're looking to understand whether the rally is sustainable—or if risk is quietly building beneath the surface—this discussion will give you the insights you need to stay informed and positioned wisely. 1 - Retailers Are Seeing Diminished Consumer Spending 2 - What Sector Rotation is Telling Us 3 - Speculative Bull Markets Can Go On for a Long Time 4 - The Fed is Contending With Weak Employment 5 - The Full Impact of Tariff is Still Unknown 6 - Jackson Hole & the Rate Cut Conundrum 7 - The Truth About Fed Meeting Minutes 8 - Lisa Cook & The Politicization of The Fed 9 - Fed Rate Cuts - 50 or 25? 10 - The Starbuck's Indicator of Consumer Sentiment 11- The Surprising Side Benefits of Paying with Cash 12 - Looking at the Positives 13 - Keeping Perspectives on Interest Rates 14 - Mortgage Rates vs Treasury Rates 15 - What Lowerd Rates Might Imply 16 - UPS: Value or Value Trap? Hosted by RIA Advisors Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://bit.ly/4mrXcJW -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Bad News is not New News" is here: https://bit.ly/4lwwFtH -------- Our previous show, "John Tamny - Money is Ruthless," can be viewed here: https://youtu.be/Hm6yNkNtC0Q -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Greg Mankiw's Solutions Would Expand Federal Debt" https://www.realclearmarkets.com/2025/08/12/greg_mankiws_solutions_would_expand_federal_debt_1128148.html ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, "Savvy Social Security Planning," August 23, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/pbx9RwqV8cjF ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BitCoin #JacksonHole #FederalReserve #JeromePowell #LisaCook #MarketCorrection #MarketRisk #AIstory #MarketWeakness #AllTimeHighs #SectorRotation #StockMarket #InvestorSentiment #MarketBubble #SpeculativeTrading #MarketVolatility #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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The "T-Bill & Chill" Era Is Ending. What Should Investors Do Next? | Michael Lebowitz