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Latest episodes from Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

What Happens When the Financial Models Break? (10/6/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 6, 2022 57:39


(10/6/22) Gasoline prices are back on the rise with OPEC's production cuts; Joe Biden's solution: Tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as winter looms, and demand for fuel oil will increase, resulting in greater expenses for an already strapped consumer. Markets are oversold with a drop in negative sentiment; yet no Fed pivot in sight. Will the Fed continue until something breaks? There are now $60-T in derivatives hanging out, all based on historical models that don't always predict everything. What happens when the models break? The Sub-prime fiasco was derivatives based on derivatives. Oil prices are on the rise, creating more financial pressure for consumers. The US is still a net-importer of oil. What happens when the US bids to replenish the SPR? Financial Stress and the Risk of Recession: The Fed's murky path. Is this the real Fed, or a Halloween mask? Is the Fed playing an economic game or a political one? SEG-1: Gasoline Prices are Back on the Rise SEG-2: What Happens When the Financial Models Break? SEG-3: The Politics of Energy SEG-4: Financial Stress & The Fed's Murky Path Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2qsW-51p78&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2681s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: What Does OPEC's Production Cuts Mean for Oil Prices?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42zRvXF7K-I&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "THe House Price Plunge: Opportunity for Cash?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GX00_CHT2qo&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2690s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #OPEC #OilPrices #StrategicPetroleumReserve #GasolinePrices #EconomicRecession #FederalResserve #MidTermElections #Markets #Money #Investing

The House Price Plunge: Opportunity for Cash? (10/5/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 5, 2022 47:47


(10/5/22) With home prices falling at the fastest pace since The Great Depression (and the resulting ramifications for the real estate market and the economy), one wonders whether the Fed is really paying attention. The VIX is moving up as selling pressure increases; watch for "performance chasing" by fund managers and portfolio managers. There is no indication the Fed is near pivoting on its inflation-fighting gambit. Markets are grinding higher in a tradeable rally. The continuing saga of The Roberts' kids & used cars; the home price plunge, recession fatigue, and opportunities for cash. The "Rosso-segment:" Candy corn, McDonald's, & Botox Parties; there is not guarantee of a Fed pivot...yet. The Transitory Camp to the Persistent Camp to the Transitory Camp again; Why the Mid-terms could create the gridlock markets love; why the Kardashian's? SEG-1: Is the Fed Really Paying Attention? SEG-2: The House Price Plunge: Opportunity for Cash? SEG-3: There's No Guarantee of a Fed Pivot...yet SEG-4: How the Mid-term Elections Might Affect Stocks Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GX00_CHT2qo&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2690s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Markets Rally +6% - Is There More to Come? " is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RismnCpdstQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Will the Next Crisis be Credit-related?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtMoI1ozqG0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=256s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #HousePricePlunge #CashOpportunity #FedPivot #MidTermElections #Markets #Money #Investing

Will the Next Crisis be Credit-related? (10/4/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 4, 2022 47:49


(10/4/22) Will companies be able to pass along increased costs to consumers? As the prelude to earnings season begins to rev-up, CEO confidence is down; what will their outlooks reveal? Has the bounce begun? The short squeeze we predicted has arrived; expect rally to 3,800 to 3,900; Q3 GDP could provide some life to markets. While 70% of companies surveyed by KPMG say ESG has improved their earnings, 59% are pausing or reversing their ESG stance. How concerned is the Fed about Pension funds? The BOE's margin call loop: When Pension funds run out of collateral (a financial crisis doesn't have to be credit-related). Investment decisions are based upon models (see "Margin Call," the movie). Why this is not like 2008: More persons are working longer; what happens if/when they all pull their pension funds; could that create a "run" on Pensions? Market Commentary; is it unnerving that everyone sees a Recession coming, because no one ever sees a Recession coming. Bitcoin crimes & The Silk Road. The effects of drug use on society. SEG-1: Earnings Season Prelude SEG-2: The Financial Crisis Doesn't Have to be Credit-related SEG-3: Why This is Not Like 2008--But It Is SEG-4: The Recession No One Sees Coming Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtMoI1ozqG0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Be Careful: We're Not Out of The Woods Yet" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XO84WpHov5I&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Nowhere to Go But US Dollar & Treasuries" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UdZf34LihM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2601s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "ESG Underperformance Will Be Its Undoing" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/esg-underperformance-will-be-its-undoing/ "The Big Short Squeeze Is Coming" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-big-short-squeeze-is-coming/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FinancialCrisis #ShortSqueeze #EconomicRecession #EarningsSeason #PensionFund #PensionRun #BitCoin #TheSilkRoad #Markets #Money #Investing

Nowhere to Go But US Dollar & Treasuries (10/3/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 3, 2022 47:47


(10/3/22) Don't let a bear market force you into making bad investing decisions. When will the real risk of recession occur? Any rally back to 4,000 is a good opportunity to "fix" your portfolio. When will the Fed begin to taper rate hikes? Today's special, un-scheduled Fed Governors meeting; dealing with recession fatigue; the real risk will be in 2023; the lagging effect of Fed rate hikes; Why are American's already tired of recession? Bankrate.com; there have been no incentives for saving. What's at stake in the mid-term elections? Any economic downturn will likely be over by the time the Presidential election occurs...unless something REALLY gets screwed up. What happens when the Fed and markets tighten liquidity at the same time? The biggest risk is a lack of liquidity in treasury markets; everything is a fiat currency, backed by faith and credit of individual governments; why there's not a United States of Europe; why there's no place else to go than US Dollar and Treasuries. Contraction of liquidity in US Treasuries poses a global risk. One more rate hike is going to break something. SEG-1: When Will Real Risk of Recession Occur? SEG-2: Dealing with Recession Fatigue SEG-3: What Happens When Markets & The Fed Tighten at Once? SEG-4: The Biggest Risk to Markets Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UdZf34LihM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2601s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Keep an Eye on the 200-DMA" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qz2XgsC0oaM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "The Broken Window Theory is Flawed" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsRTlN4RKC0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=1&t=8s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #RecessionFatigue #InflationFatigue #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Markets #Money #Investing

How to Write a Successful Money Script (9/30/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 30, 2022 47:49


(9/30/22) Thursday was a rotten-apple day in a tumultuous week for the markets; recapping Hurricane Ian damage. Financial storms for the Dollar & Bond Markets: All gains from the last 10-years have been eliminated. The 60/40 allocation is the most painful ever. Why the Treasury market gets no respect; if you have cash on hand, begin putting together a list of target stocks to buy when th etiming is right. Moving from Cali to Texas; when Texan's visit abroad...in Vermont. The importance of a Money Script; taking the Brad Klontz Money Script Test; Money Vigilance vs Money Avoidance. SEG-1: Recapping Hurricane Ian SEG-2: Dealing w Inflation with Bonds SEG-3: How We Write Our Money Scripts SEG-4: Money Vigilance vs Money Avoidance Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fnKqJNA0UYQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2401s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: BOE Bailout Fuels Rally " is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3cmBY9ZetGY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=2 -------- Our previous show is here: "The Broken Window Theory is Flawed" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsRTlN4RKC0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=1&t=8s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "Klontz Money Script Inventory-Revised (KMSI-R)" https://www.bradklontz.com/moneyscriptstest -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #BondMarket #MoneyScript #HurricaneIan #MovingToTexas #MoneyVigilance #Money Avoidance #Markets #Money #Investing

The "Broken Window Theory" is Flawed

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 29, 2022 47:50


(9/29/22) Hurricane Ian pounded Florida overnight; recovery and repairs will contribute economic activity to the area, but the "Broken Window" theory has some flaws and mirrors the relationship between stimulus and inflation. The Bank of England caved to pressure, repeating what caused inflation in the first place; the realization that high valuations cannot be maintained; bond market in biggest bear mode in history; Bond's role in with loss of ability to manage risk. What is a Bond? What is a Coupon? The difference between equities & bonds is in the return of principal. Why Buy Bonds; how is the rate calculated? What is the real yield? The lower risk in bonds: no loss of principal. The Fed is manufacturing recession. SEG-1: Hurricane Ian & The Broken Window Theory SEG-2: The Loss of Ability to Manage Risk SEG-3: Why Buy Bonds? SEG-4: What to do When the Fed is Manufacturing Recession Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsRTlN4RKC0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=1&t=8s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: BOE Bailout Fuels Rally " is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3cmBY9ZetGY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=2 -------- Our previous show is here: "Five Places to Put Cash" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWKhgoMPTpA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2657s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "The Big Short Squeeze Is Coming" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-big-short-squeeze-is-coming/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #BondMarket #BondCoupon #HurricaneIan #QuantitativeEasing #Bankof England #BrokenWindowTheory #Markets #Money #Investing

Five Places to Put Cash (9/28/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 28, 2022 47:48


(9/28/22) The Bank of England caves to the risk of inciting market instability and resumes its quantitative easing program of bond purchases. Oil Prices may be poised to move higher; Millennials are making more trades than any other demographic; the problem of anchoring; there are benefits to holding cash; the genesis of mutual funds; 29% of Americans are withdrawing from savings for everyday expenses; survey of what women want: more financial security for their household. Five places to put cash, including paying off high-interest debt, money market accounts; pick two out of three: Liquidity, safety, or returns: That's what investors get; the problem with i-Bonds: Did you miss this opportunity? SEG-1: The Bank of England Blinks SEG-2: The Genesis of Mutual Funds & Benefits of Holding Cash SEG-3: What Women Want: Financial Security for Households SEG-4: Five Places to Put Cash Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWKhgoMPTpA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2657s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Bank of England Blinks - Is the Fed Next?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWJfRHcwQg4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "The Most-forecast Recession in History" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQk8gpEJeeY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "The Big Short Squeeze Is Coming" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-big-short-squeeze-is-coming/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #QuantitativeEasing #Bankof England #CashHolding #MoneyMarket #Markets #Money #Investing

The Most-forecast Recession in History (9/27/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 27, 2022 47:50


(9/27/22) Are markets preparing for a big Short-squeeze? Just a month ago we were talking about rampant market bullishness, and now there's a high level of fear and angst in the markets. The dollar's strength has created more inflation overseas, at three standard deviations above the 50-DMA; that cannot last. We're looking for a relief rally. Could the Fed begin dollar-intervention? Why climate-plays are being reconsidered: They're too expensive. Why does the Fed using lagging indicators to drive future policy? A historic look at market performance: Setting up for a reflexive rally; a 2008 analogy and the velocity of rate hikes. The "mild" recession everyone is forecasting; looking for lower asset prices. Don't be surprised if any rally today is short-lived. The short-term memory of investors. What happened to Beyond Meat? SEG-1: Where Did All the Bullish Exuberance Go? SEG-2: Driving the Fed in the Rear-view Mirror SEG-3: The Big Short-squeeze is Coming SEG-4: The "Mild" Recession Everyone is Looking For Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQk8gpEJeeY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Will the Dollar Boost the Markets?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9cOBo5_Kur0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1&t=2s -------- Our previous show is here: "The Fed has Gone Too Far" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-6fXttAf9Q&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "The Big Short Squeeze Is Coming" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-big-short-squeeze-is-coming/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #EconomicRecession #BullishMarkets #BearishMarkets #MarketExuberance #FederalReserve #BeyondMeat #Markets #Money #Investing

The Fed has Gone Too Far (9/26/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 26, 2022 47:48


(9/26/22) Markets on Friday held onto June bottoms and are expected to rally back to 3,900; there were a record number of put-options placed on Friday, as well, indicating investors are hedging against a market crash. Could Italian national elections installing a fiscal conservative by an overwhelming majority be a precursor to US Mid-terms? Current challenges in the auto market: Few used cars available, prices at a premium; long term result of Obama-era "Cash for Cars" program, lengthening of financing terms; watching for reversion in car prices. Market commentary: The Fed has Gone too Far. The Fed's focus on inflation creating a stronger dollar abroad, which in turn, replicates inflation there; the Fed's currency intervention (manipulation) options to keep trade stable; adding to debt service expense; the Fed always breaks things: How to navigate through. What is The One Asset for investing during inflation/deflation? The trick of transferring in and out of Treasuries; more rate hikes affect more than just interest rates; what is really "Fair Value" without Fed intervention? SEG-1: Setting Up for October's Historical Market Bottom SEG-2: Buying Cars w The Roberts' Kids SEG-3: Navigating the Fed's Focus on Inflation SEG-4: The One Asset for Investing During Inflation & Deflation Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-6fXttAf9Q&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2655s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Will We Re-challenge June's Lows?3" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZawY7axSI3c&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Did the Fed Just Break the Economy?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7vhjai_U5k&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1835s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #UsedCarShopping #InterestRateHike #FOMC #BondInvesting #Inflation #Deflation #Markets #Money #Investing

Money Scripting & Raising Money Smart Kids (9/23/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 23, 2022 47:48


(9/24/22) Markets did not respond well to Jerome Powell's statements following this week's FOMC meeting and rate hike. The question now is how far the Fed will go in its inflation fight. What does going long on Treasuries by Institutional investors tell us now? ESG underperformance is causing headaches for Calpers; what happens when political agendas run afoul of investing agendas. Study: Companies with high value also tend to have high carbon footprints. Jamie Dimon's 180 on Cryptocurrency: Decentralized Ponzi Scheme. The importance of Money Scripting in raising money smart kids: Save, Share, Spend. Investing with the Beave: That time Ward taught Wally & Beaver about investing, and that rascal, Eddie Haskell. Linking investments to real-life; Custodial Roth IRA's. SEG-1: How Far will Powell Go? SEG-2: ESG Performance: What Happens When Social Agendas Collide w Investing Agenda SEG-3: Raising Money Smart Kids - The Problem w One-click Purchases SEG-4: Investing with The Beave Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP w Senior Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTm7h9sVbYE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2523s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Higher Rates are Here to Stay Until 2023" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWe17gAeUgk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Did the Fed Just Break the Economy?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7vhjai_U5k&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1835s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #InterestRateHike #JeromePowell #FOMC #BondInvesting #Inflation #MoneyScript #LeaveItToBeaver #Markets #Money #Investing

Did the Fed Just Break the Economy? (9/22/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 22, 2022 47:51


(9/22/22) It's a Trifecta Thursday with the onset of Autumn and the Death of the Roberts' Duber; the Fed raises rates 75-basis points, as expected, but shocks markets by saying higher rates are here to stay through 2023...unless something occurs to cause a change in stance. The Fed's "good intentions" vs reality; markets are now on the same page. The impact of higher rates on Bonds: TINA, FOMO, & YOLO in the Bond market; the importance of differentiation in bonds; bonds are a function of economic activity & inflation; Dollar strength is relative; what other currencies are doing, and why the Dollar is the Reserve Currency of the world; are we losing the advantage of the Rule of Law? Bank of Japan's intervention. SEG-1: Thursday Trifecta, Fed Rate Hike SEG-2: The Fed's Intentions vs Reality SEG-3: TINE, FOMO, & YOLO and Bonds SEG-4: Why the Dollar is The Reserve Currency of the World Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7vhjai_U5k&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1835s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Higher Rates are Here to Stay Until 2023" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWe17gAeUgk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Could Interest Rates Remain High through 2024?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cicHhGnamI8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2464s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "Tail Risk and Persistent Inflation" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/tail-risk-and-persistent-inflation -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FOMC #InterestRateHike #JeromePowell #BondInvesting #Inflation #ReserveCurrency #Markets #Money #Investing

Could Interest Rates Remain High through 2024? (9/21/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 21, 2022 47:37


(9/21/22) The Fed is expected to hike interest rates another 75-basis points today. Meanwhile, the Dot Plot, consisting of the FOMC voting members' positions on interest rates, suggests rates will be at 4.25% by 2023, and remain there into 2024. Bonds are extremely cheap relative to stocks. This is debunking the TINA (There Is No Alternative) syndrome. As rates rise, those with pensions must consider whether taking monthly distributions or a lump sum is in their best interest. The fallacy of "deficit reduction;" the unintended consequences of government programs, good intentions, and bad outcomes. SEG-1: FOMC Meeting Preview & Dot Plot Predictions SEG-2: The Inflation Calculations Behind the Fed's Rate Hikes SEG-3: Pensions & Lump Sum Options - Why Interest Rates Matter SEG-4: Unintended Consequences of Government Programs Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cicHhGnamI8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2461s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Treasuries Respond to Fed's Rate Hike Binge" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QUp-riVZOI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Why Jerome Powell is Okay with "Below Trend" Growth" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_eE2iVEa8Q&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "Deficit Reduction. Is It Reality Or A Mirage?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/deficit-reduction-is-it-reality-or-a-mirage-2/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FOMC #InterestRateHike #JeromePowell #BondInvesting #PensionPayout #Inflation #Markets #Money #Investing

Why Jerome Powell is Okay with "Below Trend" Growth (9/20/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 20, 2022 47:49


(9/20/22) It's turning into a sloppy September for markets, even though support held at May's lows on Monday. Today marks the start of the FOMC meeting, with markets anticipating the group's next move upward on rates by 75bp. Why is Jerome Powell okay with "below trend" economic growth? The trap of investors' "anchoring;" the Fed's view of markets is the only one that counts. Some economic pain is okay...the Fed is going to act in a way that is not friendly to markets. Why the Fed might NOT cut rates; the Fed's actions and chain of events; does the Buffett Indictor indicate a coming market crash? Buy My House (Shark Tank for Real Estate); why Open Door is losing money; this is how you know you're at the top of a market. Zillow's iBuying is geared for volume selling, not profitable deals. Why you really DON'T have to own a house. SEG-1: Sloppy September & Markets' Expectations SEG-2: Why Jerome Powell is Okay with "Below Trend Growth" SEG-3: Is The Buffett Indicator Predicting a Market Crash? SEG-4: How You Know You're at the Top of a Market (Real Estate) Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_eE2iVEa8Q&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2683s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Will Rates Reach 4%?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50DsLuo5gv8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1&t=3s -------- Our previous show is here: "Is a 75bp Rate Increase Already Baked-in?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ok76LzsOFTw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FOMC #InterestRateHike #JeromePowell #EconomicPain #BelowTrendEconomicGrowth #Inflation #Markets #Money #Investing

Is a 75bp Rate Increase Already Baked-in? (9/19/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 19, 2022 47:49


(9/19/22) A bit of distraction to start the morning with all eyes on the State Funeral of Queen Elizabeth II; the next meeting of the FOMC is on Wednesday, with expectations for a 75-basis point rate increase already "baked into the cake;" there is concern the Fed could go for a 1% rate hike. Goldman is predicting rates at 4 to 4.25% by the end of the year--hopefully the point at which the Fed will halt rate increases. The Stock Buy-back Blackout period is about to commence, and that activity has made up about 40% of Markets' total return since 2011. Federal Express's earnings miss was accompanied by a negative outlook; the Fred Smith Story; when will Amazon be pre-Prime? Is year-over-year portfolio performance comparison a long-enough perspective/ SEG-1: Navigating with The Fed (using lagging data) SEG-2: Why Stock Buy-backs are NOT a Return of Capital to Investors SEG-3: FedEx Fallout SEG-4: Gauging Performance w Proper Perspective Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ok76LzsOFTw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: What Happens When Buy-backs Go Away" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jU185LOQkJ0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1&t=1s -------- Our previous show is here: "How High Will Fed Rates Need to Go?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlru4UOaWiY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=934s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FedEx #FOMC #AmazonPrime #BuyBack#Blackout #FredSmith #WalMart #QueenElizabeth_II #Inflation #Markets #Money #Investing

Don't Let a Tax Torpedo Sink Your Retirement Boat (9/16/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 16, 2022 47:51


(9/16/22) FedEx's dire predictions are echoing concern of others on the true health of the economy; delivery services are a bellwether of a coming recession. The Fed is in a box; Wal-Mart: If you want deals, we're giving you deals. James Taylor, "Inflation is Dead;" Identifying the Tax Torpedo; the bridge strategy of Tax Torpedo diffusion; when companies get hammered, and the opportunity that's created; America slips in the Global Retirement Index; Lance's Last Chart NFT. SEG-1: What FedEx's Dire Report Means SEG-2: The Tax Torpedo SEG-3: Diffusing the Tax Torpedo SEG-4: When Companies Get Hammered (and create opportunity) Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIXksrKaFUE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2936s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Could Oil Rally to $95-barrel?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CsTiQCB9-E&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "How High Will Fed Rates Need to Go?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlru4UOaWiY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=934s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #TaxTorpedo #Retirement #FederalReserve #FedEx #WalMart #JamesTaylor #Inflation #Markets #Money #Investing

How High Will Fed Rates Need to Go? (9/15/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 15, 2022 47:50


(9/15/22) Markets remain in a broad trading range, even as the Fed prepares for next week's FOMC Meeting: We're witnessing bear market behavior, grinding down investors. The VIX "fear gauge" is remarkably tame. Oil prices could rally to a range of $90-$95/bbl; Michael Lebowitz' motto shifts from "Don't Fight the Fed" to "Follow the Fed," and note its bullish- or bearish-stances. The Fed today (9/15) begins its quantitative tightening. There's no perceptible change in Fed stance: Get rates as high as needed as fast as possible; today's inflation is not the same as in the '70's; the problem with trailing indicators; What will the Fed do next (and note that they don't have to wait until the next meeting to move rates.) Investor navigation is a matter of recognizing the trends. SEG-1: Fed-Speak Preview, Volatility, & Bear Market Behavior SEG-2: Follow the Fed SEG-3: Next FOMC Meeting: How high, How fast? SEG-4: How to Navigate Fed Waters RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlru4UOaWiY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=934s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Could Oil Rally to $95-barrel?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CsTiQCB9-E&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "How CPI Will Impact Social Security COLA" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-skrZRueDQM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=7s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "Biden's Stimulus Will Cut Poverty By 40% – For One Year." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bidens-stimulus-will-cut-poverty-by-40-for-one-year/ "Deficit Reduction. Is It Reality Or A Mirage?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/deficit-reduction-is-it-reality-or-a-mirage-2/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #InterestRates #CPI #Inflation #CrudeOilPrices #Markets #Money #Investing

How CPI Will Impact Social Security COLA (9/14/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 14, 2022 47:52


(9/14/22) With the latest CPI print at 8.3%, the odds of bigger interest rate increases by the Fed just got better; markets are still within a rising bottom trendline against a declining line of bullishness: Decision time is coming this week, as volatility remains confined. Inflation actually slowed from this time last year; what if you could get more for your money? Lump-sum Pension or long-term payout? How CPI will impact Social Security COLA adjustments; how inflation will hasten Social Security insolvency; the difference between CPI-W & CPI-E and why it matters. Is Social Security welfare or entitlement? Why solutions for "fixing" Social Security are unelectable. The $96-T un-funded liability. The problem w student loan forgiveness. How Joe Biden's Stimmie Checks fulfilled our poverty prophecy; dancing across the poverty line. Pre-market commentary; FAFSA Lunch & Learn preview. SEG-1: The Odds of More Aggressive Rate Hikes Just Increased SEG-2: What If You Could Get More on Your Money? SEG-3: How Inflation Accelerates SS Insolvency SEG-4: Dancing Across the Poverty Line RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-skrZRueDQM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2673s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Financial Media Goes Nuts Over CPI" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qW7paPBP1g&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "8.3% Inflation: Thinking Ahead of the Fed" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXvSzlIiwCw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "Biden's Stimulus Will Cut Poverty By 40% – For One Year." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bidens-stimulus-will-cut-poverty-by-40-for-one-year/ "Deficit Reduction. Is It Reality Or A Mirage?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/deficit-reduction-is-it-reality-or-a-mirage-2/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #CPI #Inflation #InterestRates #StudentFinancialAid #FAFSA #CollegeLoans #FederalReserve #Markets #Money #Investing

8.3% Inflation: Thinking Ahead of the Fed (9/13/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 13, 2022 47:57


(9/13/22) All eyes are on today's CPI Report (clocking-in at 8.3% Inflation) and its effects on the economy: What are the numbers within the number, and why does it matter? What will be the Fed's response, and what will it take for the Fed to ease up on rate hikes? The dichotomy of views among Bears vs Bulls: the problem of timing and duration; after 3 Bull Markets, why are 80% of Americans still broke? The White Multi-millionaire Minority. Dealing with short-term market-cycles, and thinking ahead of the Fed: What's the best strategy for Recession? Markets FOMO on potential Fed pivot; trade the market for what it is, not what we wish it was. CPI Preview: Too hot not good for stocks: Fed will continue rate hikes. Has the deficit really been reduced as claimed? SEG-1: The Numbers Within the CPI Number SEG-2: The Dichotomy of Bearish & Bullish Views SEG-3: Thinking Ahead of the Fed SEG-4: CPI Preview; Has the Deficit Been Reduced, as Claimed? RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXvSzlIiwCw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: August Hotter Than Expected" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCEwcUlPicw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "The "Cash on the Sideline" Myth" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bICNrkKrAF8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2742s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "Five for Friday: Staples Worth Following" https://simplevisorinsights.com/five-for-friday-staples-worth-following [NOTE: SimpleVisor registration required] "Deficit Reduction. Is It Reality Or A Mirage?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/deficit-reduction-is-it-reality-or-a-mirage-2/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #CPI #Inflation #InterestRates #EnergyCosts #FederalReserve #Markets #Money #Investing

The "Cash on the Sideline" Myth (9/12/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 12, 2022 47:50


(9/12/22) Markets are working off excesses--most companies are currently doing okay, CEO's hoping for a "soft landing." The rising bottoms and declining tops are creating a wedge markets will have to painfully resolve. Why there is no such thing as "cash on the sidelines," but there is a dearth of buyers or dearth of sellers. We're now seeing seller exhaustion; looking at a rally within bearish bias. Animal Sleep Patterns; the unseen impact of energy costs, government bailouts, and the EU economy; the feedback of consumption trends; CEO's at Goldman Retail Conference see no recession before 2023; effects of Fed's rate hike series still to be felt in markets. dealing with the complexity of markets; the difference between college and experience. SEG-1: The Pain Trade Seems to Be Higher SEG-2: There's No Such Thing as "Cash on the Sidelines" SEG-3: Dealing With the Unseen in the Markets SEG-4: Why Experience is a Better Teacher than College RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bICNrkKrAF8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2742s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: The Pain Trade is Higher" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJUjbf-z9u4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "The True Cost of Aging Exposed" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hlIlJKC7WY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "Five for Friday: Staples Worth Following" https://simplevisorinsights.com/five-for-friday-staples-worth-following [NOTE: SimpleVisor registration required] "Markets Hold Support As Bulls Defy The Fed" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/markets-hold-support-as-bulls-defy-the-fed/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketMyth #PainTrade #MarketImpact #InterestRates #EnergyCosts #Inflation #FederalReserve #Markets #Money #Investing

The True Cost of Aging Exposed (9/9/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 9, 2022 47:51


(9/9/22) Why Meghan cannot be Queen; The Janet Yellen Economic Roadshow: taxes must return to "norms;" inflation and the "Fair" economy; energy diversification; Brookings Institute: Unemployment must go higher. Understanding the US economy in COVID; Janet Yellen's EV's; the fiscal fight; why having cash is not a bad thing; market preview: Gerber Insurance; The Elder Index & cost of Aging; demographics and changes to work habits; the importance of good health in retirement; living single in retirement; The Viral Queen; FAFSA preview; "It's Complicated" financial dust bunnies; your end of life plan for your pets; pet trusts. SEG-1: Janet Yellen on Taxes, Inflation, & "Fair" Economy SEG-2: Understanding the US Economy in COVID SEG-3: Market Preview; The True Cost of Aging SEG-4: End of Life Planning for Pets RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Sr. Risk Management Consultant, Chris Liebum LUTFC Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hlIlJKC7WY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2756s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: The Death Cross & Oil Prices" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kyr2i7vyvmU&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "The Fed's Currency Swap Line" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ex09Bn_9UD4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2643s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "Consumer Staples vs. Discretionary" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/consumer-staples-vs.-discretionary "Earnings Decline – Likely More To Go Before We Are Done" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/earnings-decline-likely-more-to-go-before-we-are-done/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #QueenElizabeth #JanetYellen #CostOfAging #Inflation #ElderIndex #Markets #Money #Investing

The Fed's Currency Swap Line (9/8/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 8, 2022 47:28


(9/8/22) Markets continue through a holiday-shortened week; use any rally to reduce portfolio risk; the Fed is not backing-off its hawkish stance, but markets are holding support...so far. The Fed's hawkish talk--75bp, with more to come, targeting the 4% range. The ECB is dealing with the same issues as the Fed, plus much higher energy costs. Dealing with the feedback-loop of central bank moves; why dollar strength is a problem for the EU; all currencies are fiat--nothing is "backed" by anything. Liquidity is key; when the dollar tightens, there's a ripple effect for the entire world; the Fed's currency swap-line; with the Russian incursion and higher energy prices, the best way to help the EU is with a stronger Euro; inflation is the bane of bond holders. SEG-1: What if the Market Breaks Through Support? SEG-2: Dealing with the Fed's Feedback Loop SEG-3: The Ripple Effect of Fed Tightening SEG-4: The EU, Bonds, & Russian's Impact RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: The Death Cross & Oil Prices" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kyr2i7vyvmU&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Should You Jump Into an EV?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1ioJ5JfHqQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2459s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "Consumer Staples vs. Discretionary" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/consumer-staples-vs.-discretionary "Earnings Decline – Likely More To Go Before We Are Done" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/earnings-decline-likely-more-to-go-before-we-are-done/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #Eurozone #HighEnergyPrices #StrongDollar #FiatCurrency #EnergyPrices #Inflation #Rusia_Ukraine #Markets #Money #Investing

Should You Jump Into an EV? (9/7/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 7, 2022 47:45


(9/7/22) September markets are underway with buying and selling stampedes; use any rally to reduce risk. If you're worrying too much about your portfolio, you're holding too much risk! Looking forward, earnings expectations are still too elevated, and valuations have to come down. A side-by-side look at the ISM vs S&P PMI; geopolitical decisions affect markets. Europe is imploding over high energy costs (thanks, Vladimir!) As the US exports inflation and imports deflation, effects will be felt here. Markets are likely to re-test 50-DMa; Cali power woes is the price of shifting too quickly to "green" energy sources, before a bridge between "dirty" and "clean" energy. SEG-1: Buying & Selling Stampedes SEG-2: The Problem with Divergent Data SEG-3: The Risk of Betting on a Bear Market Crash SEG-4: The Unintended Consequences of Jumping Into EV's RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1ioJ5JfHqQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2679s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: When Will Markets' Stampede End?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9Ak0IrBIsc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "What's the Half-life of a Biden Fist-bump?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IawOTGD3n_c&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2655s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "Consumer Staples vs. Discretionary" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/consumer-staples-vs.-discretionary "Earnings Decline – Likely More To Go Before We Are Done" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/earnings-decline-likely-more-to-go-before-we-are-done/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #SellingStampede #Eurozone #HighEnergyPrices #GreenEnergy #EarningsExpectations #ExcessiveValuations #Markets #Money #Investing

What's the Half-life of a Biden Fist-bump? (9/6/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 6, 2022 47:18


(9/6/22) The best thing about this week may be that it's only four-days long! Liz Truss is the new UK PM, already embattled; the death of BBY CEO; OPEC's production cut & the half-life of a Biden fist-bump; Russia's weaponization of natural gas to Europe; Europe's response to inflation: Do the same things again that caused it; the move from capitalism to more socialistic practices; market valuations and the shift from GAP to Forward Operating Earnings, a.k.a 'what we wish they were.' There's no forthcoming reprieve from Fed interest rate hikes. SEG-1: Liz Truss, BBY SEO Death; The Half-life of a Biden Fist-bump. SEG-2: The Unwinding of the Economy that Created America's Wealth SEG-3: When Will Things get Back to Normal? SEG-4: The Fed's Jenga Game RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IawOTGD3n_c&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2655s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Markets Rally Despite OPEC Production Cuts" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93RNDdSzkqI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Will the Fed Start Paying More Attention to Employment?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fpkDXstPvM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "Bull Rally Fails As Bears Regain Control" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bull-rally-fails-as-bears-regain-control/ "Earnings Decline – Likely More To Go Before We Are Done" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/earnings-decline-likely-more-to-go-before-we-are-done/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #OPEC #OilPrices #FederalReserve #InterestRateHike #JoeBiden #JeromePowell #Markets #Money #Investing

Will Your Social Security Benefits be Tax-Free by 2023? (9/2/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 2, 2022 47:50


(9/2/22) In the kind of market where bad news is good news, where do we go from here? The dark side of not allowing business cycle to complete: Recession = Bad; so the market has outrun the economy. Why the Medicare Advantage TV ads have disappeared; the games medical/healthcare delivery companies play; why we prefer Medigap to Medicare Advantage plans. Market Tailwinds have tunred to headwinds: Is now a bad time to retire? Reviewing withdrawal rates over three-year rolling average; Cartoons & Me.TV; will SOcial Security benefits be tax-free by 2023? SEG-1: The Bad News is Good News Market SEG-2: Medicare Advantage & Healthcare Delivery Games SEG-3: Is Now a Bad Time to Retire? SEG-4: Will Social Security be Free by 2023 RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_rsI83VX7M&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2885s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: It Was a Bear Market Rally, After All" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJnKkzlPFGQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Will the Fed Start Paying More Attention to Employment?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fpkDXstPvM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #SocialSecurityBenefits #MedicareAdvantage #MedigapCoverage #RetirementTiming #Markets #Money #Investing

Will the Fed Start to Pay More Attention to Employment Numbers? (9/1/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 1, 2022 47:46


(9/1/22) What would happen if markets break through the 50-DMA? We're treating any market rally as an opportunity to sell and reduce equity risk; parsing Jerome Powell's post-Jackson Hole comments; bringing pain to households and businesses, and the beginning of the Price-Wage spiral; will the Fed start to pay more attention to employment numbers? The stats on the Great Resignation--there's a little remorse. The dynamics of house prices, and response to Fed rate hikes; payments and psychology in house buying. The biggest risk to markets is a Fed policy mistake: moving interest rates higher based on lagging economic data, with delayed results by as much as 12-months. Why the Fed should set rates and "let it sit." Quantitative Tightening is the elephant in the room: What interest rate will break the economy? SEG-1: What if Markets Break the 50-DMA? SEG-2: Parsing Jerome Powell & the Beginning of Price-Wage Spiral SEG-3: Is this a Housing Recession or Correction? SEG-4: The Biggest Risk to Markets: A Fed Policy Mistake RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fpkDXstPvM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: It Was a Bear Market Rally, After All" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJnKkzlPFGQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "What CEO Confidence is Saying" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2kUZhfJ8uk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "Market Sell-Off As Jackson Hole Leans Hawkish" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/market-sell-off-as-jackson-hole-leans-hawkish/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestmentAdvice #EmploymentReport #QuantitativeTightening #InterestRates #Inflation #Markets #Money #Investing #BattleshipTexasFoundation

What CEO Confidence is Saying (8/31/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 31, 2022 47:49


(8/31/22) Considering the Fed's Quantitative Tightening and what CEOs' confidence is saying about the economy; confidence on the wane as the economy weakens (which is the intent of the Fed); dire predictions of a "whopper" recession in 2023; why isn't the Fed looking at M-2? Investor psychology and Pavlov's dog: The Fed's QE is the bell; a succinct history of Exogenous Events; moving the Battleship Texas; Warren Buffett's investing advice at 92. SEG-1: The Fed's QT: What CEO Confidence is Saying SEG-2: The 2023 Recession Will Be a Whopper SEG-3: Investor psychology and a Brief History of Exogenous Events SEG-4: Battleships and Warren Buffet at 92. RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2kUZhfJ8uk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Markets Break 50-DMA" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2giYJuL4n_k&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Why Bitcoin & NFT Trading Has Crashed" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8g-w2x8uyA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2567s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "Market Sell-Off As Jackson Hole Leans Hawkish" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/market-sell-off-as-jackson-hole-leans-hawkish/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestmentAdvice #EmploymentReport #QuantitativeTightening #InterestRates #Inflation #Markets #Money #Investing #BattleshipFoundationGroup

Why Bitcoin and NFT Trading has Crashed (8/30/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 30, 2022 47:45


(8/30/22) Markets are on sell-signals, so use any rally to sell-into and raise cash, rebalance portfolio risk; the impact on credit spreads by rising interest rates will reverberate through the economy. We are likely not through the corrective period. 60% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck--down from 61%! Is the pain worth the fight on inflation? why investing doesn't work as advertised. America exports inflation and imports deflation; what happens when the EU does the same? Top Things Workers Want from Their Jobs; arranging for permanent time off. SIUB: Suck It Up Buttercup and get back to work being productive; Why Bitcoin and NFT trading has crashed. Bitcoin is the "Pet Rock" of the 2020's; Pet Rocks were the NFT's of the '70's. Meghan Markle got the royal shaft; Markets need a reflexive rally; still trying to price-in what the Fed will do. The feedback loop of economic pain = slower economic growth = lower corporate earnings = more job losses & pain. Why the economic recession will be worse than we're being told. SEG-1: Credit Spreads & Interest Rates SEG-2: Is the Pain Worth the Fight on Inflation? SEG-3: SIUB - Return to Work; NFT's the Pet Rocks of 2020 SEG-4: Meghan Markle's Royal Shaft; Why the Economic Recession Will Be Worse Than Expected RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8g-w2x8uyA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2566s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Will a Hold at the 50-DMA Level Continue? " is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2giYJuL4n_k&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Filling the Holes in Jackson, WY" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9qwKU7HyTU&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "Market Sell-Off As Jackson Hole Leans Hawkish" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/market-sell-off-as-jackson-hole-leans-hawkish/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestmentAdvice #InterestRates #BitCoin #Inflation #ReturnToWork #EmployeeBenefits #PetRock #NFT #MeghanMarkle #Markets #Money #Investing

Filling in the Holes at Jackson, WY (8/29/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 29, 2022 47:35


(8/29/22) The summer drought is revealing strange discoveries; there's no Powell pivot in sight, post-Jackson Hole; the fallacy of college debt forgiveness; Pew charts disappointment by political parties and the effect on markets; Powell's restoration of price stability, rebalancing supply & demand; curbing inflation will likely result in curbing economic growth, pain for households & businesses; more importantly 9and was ignored) was what the ECU said at Jackson Hole; the impact of impending Italian election; no one is paying attention to European energy shortages; bitcoin miners in Texas requesting more power; paying the consequences of flawed economic theories (MMT, Green New Deal); a few diversions: Emotional support gator, sports memorabilia sales, hidden treasures, Aussie spiders, snakes, & Google searches; Market pre-lude & commentary; why Russian sanctions aren't working; impact of nat gas prices in Europe. SEG-1: Drought Discoveries & No Pivot From the Fed SEG-2: Rebalancing Supply & Demand SEG-3: Filling the Holes at Jackson WY SEG-4: Diversions & Discussion: Markets, EU Energy, & Russian Sanctions RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9qwKU7HyTU&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Dow Dumps in Response to Powell" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ToPv98MdGc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1&t=2s -------- Our previous show is here: "Will Jerome Powell Disappoint?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ow_8wNY6aYw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2675s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "Market Sell-Off As Jackson Hole Leans Hawkish" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/market-sell-off-as-jackson-hole-leans-hawkish/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestmentAdvice #JacksonHole #InflationReductionAct #InterestRates #CollegeDebtRelief #Markets #Money #Investing

Will Jerome Powell Disappoint Today? (8/26/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 26, 2022 47:39


(8/26/22) Does everything hinge around Jackson Hole? Will Jerome Powell disappoint the hawks? the impact of energy prices on inflation; California's EV gambit; how the drought will impact food prices & inflation. How the Inflation Reduction Act will cap prescription drug prices--eliminating the Medicare donut hole; Drug Holidays, the Anxiety in Retirement Planning; Medicare Confusion; A Dr Pepper a Day, and putting coke back into Coke; How to not out-live your retirement. SEG-1: Will Jerome Powell Disappoint? SEG-2: The Silver Lining in the Inflation Reduction Act SEG-3: What Women Fear Most About Retirement SEG-4: How Not to Outlive Your Assets in Retirement RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP w Senior Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ow_8wNY6aYw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2675s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: All Eyes on Jackson Hole" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYcqKcfYODA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "The Price-Wage Spiral" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGM0x6vAYXQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestmentAdvice #JacksonHole #InflationReductionAct #InterestRates #MedicareDonutHole #Markets #Money #Investing

The Price-Wage Spiral (8/25/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 25, 2022 47:48


(8/25/22) The Jackson Hole Symposium launches today; Is the Fed going to pivot? NVIDIA forecasting lower earnings; the good news/bad news about student loan forgiveness and the problem with "free" money; Cracker Barrel's veggie sausage; challenges for the Jackson Hole in the wall gang: Transitioning to a new, lasting reality w Inflation and the price-wage spiral; Fed presidents looking for a "softer" landing (softer than what??) Encyclopedias & the Copy & Paste Fed; are we seeing signs of a housing recession? The effects of monetary policy and policy lag; past-due power bills' impact on Municipal Bonds; de-globalization and the end of abundance in the EU; impact of slower European economy on the US, where 40% of corporate earnings come from spending abroad. SEG-1: Jackson Hole Prelude: Is the Fed Going to Pivot? SEG-2: The New, Lasting Reality of Inflation SEG-3: Encyclopedias & The Copy-and-Paste Fed SEG-4: The End of Abundance RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGM0x6vAYXQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: All Eyes on Jackson Hole" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYcqKcfYODA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Scary Consequences of Student Loan Forgiveness" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzIFrI3Ubo8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestmentAdvice #StudentLoanForgiveness #PriceWageSpiral #JacksonHole #EndOfAbundance #AggressiveFed #InterestRates #InflationReductionAct #Markets #Money #Investing

Scary Consequences of Student Loan Forgiveness (8/24/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 24, 2022 48:03


(8/24/22) Markets have a laser-focus on upcoming Jackson Hole conference; is the Fed going to get more aggressive in dealing with inflation? Expectations for a more persistent level of inflation The Housing market is in the early stages of recession. Dennis Rodman's trek to Russia to bargain for Brittney Griner's release; what could possibly go wrong? Joe Biden's student loan debt forgiveness gambit; unintended consequences--it's a taxable event. The history of student loans; the resulting inflation will more than negate the effects of the "Inflation Reduction Act;" the stats of student loans; Fat kids and Global Warming; how to adjust your stock & bond portfolios. SEG-1: Jackson Hole Prelude: Will the Fed Get More Aggressive? SEG-2: Dennis Rodman to the Rescue; Biden's Student Loan Forgiveness SEG-3: Unintended Consequences of Student Loan Forgiveness SEG-4: 20-Ideas for Adjusting Stock & Bond Portfolios RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzIFrI3Ubo8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Targeting 4,000 to 4,160 as We Head Into Jackson Hole" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFOsI9EkRjE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "How to Navigate Through Stagflation" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3xUDJ328DU&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestmentAdvice #StudentLoanForgiveness #JacksonHole #AggressiveFed #InterestRates #InflationReductionAct #Markets #Money #Investing

How to Navigate Through Stagflation (8/23/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 23, 2022 47:50


(8/23/22) Markets slice through the 100-DMA; potential impact of the coming Jackson Hole extravaganza; We export inflation and import cheap stuff; how to navigate through stagflation; back to college, self-checking at Walmart, Full-service filling stations; the saga of Meme Stocks; don't try to always make money in the market; outperforming a down market is key to success. Watch for slower economic growth as Fed continues to tighten; how Zoome became ubiquitous for online meetings; fundamental evaluations matter; the success of "House of the Dragon." SEG-1: How to Navigate Through Deflation SEG-2: Back to College & Saga of the Meme Stocks SEG-3: Can Markets Still Make Positive Returns in 2022? SEG-4: Taking the Zip out of Zoom RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3xUDJ328DU&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Markets Slicing Through Support Levels" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URswcY8N3mg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "The Reddit Run-up on AMC Stock" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LZKPbhkFpOY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2692s -------- Article mentioned in today's show: "Five for Friday" from SimpleVisor.com: https://simplevisorinsights.com/five-for-friday-closed-end-fund-mlps-trading-at-a-discount ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestmentAdvice #StagflationNavigation #MemeStocks #BearMarket #AMC #APE #Apple #Meta #Microsoft #Tesla #Zoom #Markets #Money #Investing

The Reddit Run-up on AMC Stock (8/22/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 22, 2022 47:48


(8/22/22) The Roberts' House Squirrel Infestation; Historic stats on Bear Market Rallies: 30% of the 17% market gain is on the backs of four stocks: Apple, Meta, Microsoft, & Tesla; Why 40% of executives are rescinding job offers; why we'll be lucky to hit 1% GDP in 2023; check out our "Five for Friday" report; comparing stock fundamentals to ETF performance; what's going to happen when ETF's sell-off? How Reddit ran up the price of AMC; going APE for AMC stock. Will we end up with only ONE movie theater chain? SEG-1: Dogs, Squirrels, & Blood Bath & Beyond SEG-2: What Jobs Markets Really Says About the Economy SEG-3: The Challenges of Fundamentals vs ETF's SEG-4: Going APE over AMC RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LZKPbhkFpOY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2692s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Has the 9-week Rally Ended?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2KUTOnNcToY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Moderation" is "Recession"? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pfxqhd7835c&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2713s -------- Article mentioned in today's show: "Five for Friday" from SimpleVisor.com: https://simplevisorinsights.com/five-for-friday-closed-end-fund-mlps-trading-at-a-discount ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Investment_Advice #Bear_Market #Blood_Bath_and_Beyond #AMC #APE #Apple #Meta #Microsoft #Tesla #Markets #Money #Investing

Six Guidelines for the Bank of Mom & Dad (8/19/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 19, 2022 47:47


(8/19/22) Why the markets are feeling very "beary;" Fed pivot talk is ridiculous; future Jobs cuts are going to be more white-collar; spending habits are shifting; The cost of raising children should be birth control enough; What happens when the Bank of Mom & Dad helps kids with mortgages; Texas food addictions; Lending guidelines for the Bank of Mom & Dad; thinking like a loan officer; who in the world wants to work for the IRS? Tax implications for lending to kids; lending vs gifting to children; the question of balance: How much "skin-in-the-game" do the kids have? SEG-1: Why the Markets Feel Very "Beary" SEG-2: What it Really Costs to Raise Your Kids SEG-3: Food Addictions; Guidelines for the Bank of Mom & Dad SEG-4: Tax Implications for Family Loans [NOTE: Our live-stream failed during the fourth segment; you can listen to the complete show audio here: ] RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP w Senior Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6lP2m6v6HE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: FOMC Meeting Minutes: Fedspeak Translation" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOVqNotzoyE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Moderation" is "Recession"? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pfxqhd7835c&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2713s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Investment_Advice #Bear_Market #Cost_of_Raising_Children #Bank_of_Mom_and_Dad #Family_Loans #Markets #Money #Investing

"Moderation" is a Polite Term for "Recession" (8/18/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 18, 2022 47:48


(8/18/22) It's College Move-in Week; parsing the latest meeting minutes of the FOMC: Markets rally despite economic backdrop; why retail sales numbers aren't what they seem: We're spending more, getting less; the lag-effect of Fed policy; How FOMC Meeting minutes are "crafted" for release; Hawks and Doves: There's something for everyone. Code words the Fed uses. Ice cream vs Bagels; Cheeseburgers vs salads; health in retirement; Gravity Payments CEO Quits; Entry level jobs/pay; minimum wage vs living wage; the problem with brining semiconductor production onshore; "Friend-shoring" to Vietnam; re-shoring of production to US is unfeasible; the false paradigm that everyone deserves a living wage; the minimum wage is actually zero--you're paid what you're worth. Why we have inflation: We want too much. SEG-1: College Move-in Season; FOME Meeting Minutes De-coded. SEG-2: "Moderation" is a Polite Term for "Recession" SEG-3: Ice cream, Healthy Food, & Retirement SEG-4: Lance's Rant: The False Paradigm of Minimum Wage RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pfxqhd7835c&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2713s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: FOMC Meeting Minutes: Fedspeak Translation" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOVqNotzoyE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Should You Be "All-in" Now?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33nOdDCrqpg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2549s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

Should You Be "All-In" Now? (8/17/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 17, 2022 47:46


(8/17/22) Retailers' earnings reports and forecasts are painting a gloomy picture in contrast to Wall Street's cheerleaders: Target's earnings (and what they did to liquidate surplus inventory) is a cautionary tale. FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released today, expected to reveal the Fed's proclivities about future rate hikes. If you assume we're in a Bear market, you must also presume there has to be a rally. Should you be al-in, or not? How Consumers' buying habits are changing: Wal-Mart & IHOP; How do you Define a Bear Markets vs a Bull Market? Where do you think you rank in priority for your Broker's attention? Making the transition from Uber Bear to Uber Bull. Understanding Homebuilders' reports; the trend away from single family to multi-family construction; rental vs home ownership: How you know when you can (or cannot) afford to buy a house. SEG-1: Retail Earnings - Target's Case Study SEG-2: Should You Me "All-In" Now? SEG-3: How Your Broker is Really Incentivized SEG-4: How You Know You Can Afford to Buy a House...or not RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33nOdDCrqpg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2549s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Will the FOMC Meeting Minutes Reveal a Dovish Stance?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgZpQvfTzhE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Biden bill Will Cause HIGHER Inflation" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5kQLvdxK6jM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=1&t=2656s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Bull_Market #Bear_Market #Retail_Sales #Target #WalMart #Home_Builders #Renting_vs_Home_Ownership #Stock_Broker #Broker_Incentives #Markets #Money #Investing

Biden Bill Will Cause HIGHER Inflation (8/16/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 16, 2022 47:48


(8/16/22) We might not yet be in Recession, but the stage is being set for one; if the Fed has to cut rates, the underlying reason will not bode well for markets. What has happened to demand? Biden bill to reduce inflation will not have much effect, but will cause higher inflation, negative GDP, and job losses; will also result in more IRS audits for middle class. Congress can defund in 2024. SEG-1: In Search of Markets' Higher High: Correction to Come? SEG-2: We're Not In a Recession...Yet SEG-3: Dive Bar Ice Cream & Chasing Tesla: Unintended Consequences SEG-4: Why Beefed-Up IRS Might Not Last RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5kQLvdxK6jM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=1&t=2656s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Market Correction Would Be No Surprise" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDKCEWyf3yE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Why Earnings Estimates Don't Matter Any More" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9pC2IcULsI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2687s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Bull_Market #Bear_Market #Stock_Valuations #Federal_Reserve #Interest_Rate_Hikes #Inflation_Reduction_Act #Unintended_Consequences #Markets #Money #Investing

Why Earnings Estimates Don't Matter Anymore (8/15/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 15, 2022 47:47


(8/15/22) Will the impact of inflation on household budgets spur the Fed to back-off rate hike campaign? The bigger question is when might the Fed not just stop the hikes, but reverse the direction of rates? Technical commentary on the Bull vs Bears Battle Royale: How does a bull market continue amidst overwhelming, negative indicators? What could possibly go wrong with the IRS hiring armed agents with the ability to use deadly force? The unintended consequences of sending checks to households = high inflation; Ford CEO comments on EV's and coincidental price $8,500 price increase as Inflation Act extends $7,500 tax credit for EV's. The gap between government reporting and household surveys will likely close following November elections and data "revisions;" Is the current rally a stop along the way to lower levels? the biggest challenge to stocks going forward is valuations. Earnings were "okay" as better-than-expected, but better be better next quarter. Better to be long on the market than short, but that will change. SEG-1: When Will the Fed Start Reducing Rates? SEG-2: The Bullish- Bearish-Battle Royale SEG-3: The Unintended Consequences of the "Inflation Reduction" Act SEG-4: Why Earnings Estimates Really Don't Matter RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9pC2IcULsI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2687s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Markets Are Bullish on a Short Term Basis" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCxqUtCLSYE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Are Prices "Stickier" Than We Think?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dGTtx0sMZk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Bull_Market #Bear_Market #Stock_Valuations #Federal_Reserve #Interest_Rate_Hikes #Inflation_Reduction_Act #Unintended_Consequences #Markets #Money #Investing

Why the IRS Needs Armed Agents (8/12/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 12, 2022 48:43


(8/12/22) Markets' counter-trend rally despite no changes fundamentally; "Inflation" and "easing" shouldn't be in the same sentence; Janet Yellen as "Grand Theft Granny:" Why the IRS needs armed agents; now is the time for all good men to trim equity exposure; why "The Flintstones," "Bewitched," and "Leave it to Beaver" could never be produced today; why Long Term Returns Are Unsustainable; the perfect economic storm; demographics are deflationary; the state of Social Security; long term care and why you need insurance before you need insurance. SEG-1: Markets' Counter-trend Rally: The fundamentals haven't changed SEG-2: Grand Theft Granny & IRS Agents; Time to Trim Equities Holdings? SEG-3: Flintstones vs PC TV; Demographics are Deflationary SEG-4: Why You Need Insurance Before You Need It RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP w Senior Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1T3SdVtqkqY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2716s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Inflation Lower Than Expected" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQzrfShRYzY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Are Prices "Stickier" Than We Think?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dGTtx0sMZk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #CPI #Inflation #IRS #Counter_trend_rally #JanetYellen #TrimmingEquities #Deflation #LongTermCareInsurance #Markets #Money #Investing

Are Prices "Stickier" Than We Think?

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 11, 2022 47:49


(8/11/22) Markets' aftermath of a flat CPI print: Has inflation peaked? Markets' 50% retracement of previous decline: What's the difference between a bear market and a correction? World Record Ghost Pepper eater; Markets' response to 0% inflation print (and what this really means); the Fed is tricky--the fallacy of "core" inflation; Are prices "stickier" than we think? The challenge of an unstable economic environment; the fallout from pandemic: Two forms of Fed "backing-off." The time to buy stocks is when the Fed cuts rates. Earnings Season recap: What happened at Disney? The real risk to markets is a drop in earnings from loss of consumer spending as inflation saps finances. SEG-1: CPI Fallout - Has Inflation Peaked? SEG-2: Is the Fed Losing the Case for Rate Hikes? SEG-3: Digesting CPI: Two Forms of Fed "Backing-off" SEG-4: When is the Best Time to Buy Stocks? RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dGTtx0sMZk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Inflation Lower Than Expected" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQzrfShRYzY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Anticipating Today's CPI" hhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b49f7-NNs54&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2658s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #CPI #Inflation #StickyPrices #CoreCPI #Markets #Money #Investing

Anticipating Today's CPI (8/10/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 10, 2022 47:48


(8/10/22) Going back to school in a Recession: July CPI anticipation [NOTE: At 7:30a CDT, CPI reported "cooler" than expected, at 8.5% year over year], and watching the Yield Curve; NFIB sales expectations are plummeting; workers becoming less productive as wages rise; higher prices are being passed on to consumers; childhood diseases & garden hose immunity; Market Commentary: betting on the Fed to pivot; stock analysis: who's down 20%? CPI math: Measuring month-to-month vs year-to-year indexes. Where were we a year ago? What will Fed speakers subsequently say? Health is wealth: issues of mortality and long-term care insurance. SEG-1: Anticipating CPI; NFIB's Not So Great Expectations SEG-2: Are Markets Betting on a Fed Pivot? SEG-3: CPI/Inflation Math Explained SEG-4: Health is Wealth RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b49f7-NNs54&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2658s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Waiting on the Inflation Print" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1q6ReEi7_4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "The Pandemic Effect" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLxQYLplFi4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2659s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #CPI #Inflation #NFIB_Sales_expectations #Recession #FedPivot #Markets #Money #Investing

The Pandemic Effect (8/9/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 9, 2022 49:21


(8/9/22) Bemoaning the death of Olivia Newton-John and the loss of our youth; markets' behavior because there's no pressure on the Fed to pivot. Yet. Why flat beer may be the next thing: CO2 shortage, The Roberts' Family vacation: Driving in Italy and Yacht price inflation; hypocrisy of Millennials decrying capitalism on iPhones; NVIDIA & Peloton performance: The post-pandemic effect; lower expectations reflect return to "normal;" factors that support higher market prices; a colder winter coming, per Farmer's Almanac; why stocks are rallying on not-as-bad-as-expected information, and a look at the history of stock market rallies. SEG-1: No Pressure on the Fed to Pivot SEG-2: CO2 Shortages, Italian Driving Skills, and Mega-Yachts SEG-3: The Pandemic Effect SEG-4: The Farmer's Almanac & Stock Rally on Not-as-bad News RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLxQYLplFi4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2659s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Is the Fed Close to the End?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8pizJ3_dZA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "When Inflation Reduction Becomes Climate Change" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uy3FXT7Y8sc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=648s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #OliviaNewtonJohn #FedPivot #MegaYacht #Inflation #NVIDIA #Peloton #PandemicEffect #Markets #Money #Investing

When Inflation Reduction Becomes Climate Change

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 8, 2022 47:47


(8/8/22) The so-called "Inflation Reduction" Act gets a fresh skin, but it's the same old wine, and its impact on inflation will be to exacerbate the problem further. The newly re-named the "Climate Change & Tax Act" is the same old tax & spend bill as before; the devil is in the details. How the math really works, and why inflation will be lower in 2023, but not down to the Fed's 2% target. 10% of the bill will fund hiring 87k new IRS employees. Stock buy-backs have helped keep stock prices elevated; how new bill's tax buy backs will affect markets. Corporate taxes will be passed on to consumers. SEG-1: Back to School: Why the Tax Act Will Increase Inflation SEG-2: Impact of the new Tax & Spend bill SEG-3: The Genius Behind Democrats' Inflation Reduction Act SEG-4: Too Early to Say We're at Markets' Bottom RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uy3FXT7Y8sc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=648s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Is the Markets' Bullish Mood Just Hype?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bTPJbbNJ7M&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1&t=2s -------- Our previous show is here: "Credit Card Use is Off the Charts" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_SnPN2sLy50&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InflationReductionAct #ClimateChangeBill #TaxBill #StockBuyBack #ExciseTax #FederalReserve #Inflation #Markets #Money #Investing

Why the "Inflation Reduction" Act Will Make Things Worse (8/5/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 5, 2022 48:05


(8/5/22) Today's Jobs Report should shed some light on what companies have been thinking as the economy wanes; are there more layoffs to come? The Inflation Reduction Bill will have unintended consequences; how inflation is hitting back to school expenses; dealing with the question of IRA Conversions; the exceptions to the rule: 72-T. How to leave a legacy with IRA's; investment scams we're seeing; how to keep more of your money and avoid the coming higher taxes. SEG-1: Jobs Report Preview: Why the Inflation Reduction Act Won't SEG-2: Back to School Expense & Best Uses of IRA's & Roths SEG-3: Dealing with IRS's & Exceptions to the Rule SEG-4: Investment Scams, Avoiding Taxes, and Keeping More of Your Money RIA Advisors Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozgtJXo_eRg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2680s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Has a New Bull Market Started?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gvC9J66PMI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Credit Card Use is Off the Charts" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_SnPN2sLy50&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Inflation #InflationReductionAct #JobsReport #BackToSchool #IRA #Roth #RetirementSavings #Markets #Money #Investing

Credit Card Use is Off The Charts! (8/4/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 4, 2022 49:49


(8/4/22) With too many bears in the markets, and no won left to sell, markets needed a rally to suck bulls back in for one, last ride before The Recession. The unbelievable tone-deafness of SF Fed President Mary Daly; what the increase in credit card usage means; how aggressive will the Fed be in raising rates ahead of Recession? Dueling Farmer's Almanacs differ on the severity of the coming Winter; cooking on the hood of your car in Texas; regardless of the financial media, what's your gut tell you about the markets? SEG-1: The Three Phases of a Bear Market SEG-2: The Tone-deaf Fed SEG-3: How Aggressive Wil the Fed Be? SEG-4: Dueling Farmer's Almanacs & What Your Gut Tells You RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_SnPN2sLy50&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Has a New Bull Market Started?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gvC9J66PMI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "The Upper Middle Class is Feeling the Squeeze" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNEgOoiQBeg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2728s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BullMarket #Recession #FederalReserve #Layoffs #RateHikes #Markets #Money #Investing

The Upper Middle Class is Feeling the Squeeze (8/3/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 3, 2022 47:51


(8/3/22) So we may NOT be in a Recession just yet: There could be positive economic growth in the 3rd and 4th quarters, but afterwards, look out! Robinhood's layoffs could be the prelude to more upheaval in the Jobs market. The economic squeeze on the upper-middle class; Curb-feelers, Mad Max, Cali, Utah, and the Americanization of Mexico; the significance of behavior in M-2 Money Supply. The impact of debt, and changes coming from the Secure Act 2.0; Why Fed Gov. Bullard wants 3.5% rates for a Fed "soft landing;" Equifax credit reporting gaffe; traveling on CC points, and the trouble with airlines. SEG-1: Why We May NOT Be in a Recession...yet SEG-2: What the Robinhood Layoffs May Be Heralding SEG-3: Changes Coming from Secure Act 2-0 SEG-4: Equifax Credit Scores and Traveling on CC Points RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNEgOoiQBeg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2728s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Can Markets Sustain July's Rally?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJ_NeHXvnOw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "When We Think the Recession Will Hit" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSHaA05E-Ds&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2618s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Recession #Robinhood #Inflation #Deflation #FederalReserve #Layoffs #Mexico #Markets #Money #Investing

When We Think the Recession Will Hit (8/2/22)

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 2, 2022 47:49


(8/2/22) Economists' historic definition of "recession" is now being challenged by social media fact-checkers; the Roberts Family meets the neighbors: diversity on parade; market commentary: What August holds for investors; ESG Investing is unraveling; how the government creates more problems than it solves; the economic cycle will take care of itself. The behavior of Treasuries: What happens when the Fed finally pivots; why analysts are revising estimates downward; what happens when you reduce the "E" in P/E ratios; why we think the Recession will hit in 2023 (when no one's looking). SEG-1: Redefining Recession SEG-2: The Roberts Meet the Neighbors + Market Commentary: MACD on the Rise SEG-3: Solving Problems by Causing Other Problems SEG-4: When the Fed Finally Pivots... RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSHaA05E-Ds&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2618s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Will July's Strength Carry On to August?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9XugyT6Sok&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1&t=2s -------- Our previous show is here: "August Begins: Bull or Bear?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SuH8wwwghu8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2752s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Recession #Inflation #Deflation #FederalR