Real Estate Espresso

Our book this month is The Hard Thing About Hard Things: Building a Business When There Are No Easy Answers by Ben Horowitz. Ben  co-founded Loudcloud, a cloud computing company launched during the technology boom of the late 1990s. Soon afterward, the dot-com crash created an extremely difficult operating environment. The company faced declining markets, financial pressure, layoffs, strategic changes, and the constant possibility of failure. Loudcloud was eventually transformed into Opsware and later sold to Hewlett-Packard for approximately $1.6 billion.His book is a practical, candid examination of what it really means to lead a company through uncertainty, crisis, rapid growth, and difficult decisions. Unlike many business books that focus on formulas for success, Horowitz concentrates on the situations where formulas stop working. His central message is simple but powerful: the hardest problems in business usually do not have obvious solutions, and leadership is often defined by how a person responds when every available choice carries risk.----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

I'm seeing some scary parallels between the dot com era and today. I was part of the dot com era and there were some powerful lessons from that time. It's tempting to say this time is different. But even if there is demonstrable customer demand and revenue, there are still some what where the same troubling trends are showing up. When I was at Nortel we had numerous strategy meetings about how we could compete more effectively  on a global basis. Back then, companies like Alcatel and Ericsson were doing much better globally than we were at Nortel. The folks at Ericsson would show up with their banker in the meetings who could offer them favourable financing terms. The folks at Nortel didn't have any such offer. So both Nortel and Lucent went out and borrowed money in the bond market on the strength of their balance sheet and income statement. They in turn provided financing to their customers on terms that were much better than those customers could secure on their own. When the dot com bubble burst, those bonds became a problem and ultimately resulted in the failure of Nortel and the merger of Lucent with Alcatel. So here we are in 2026, there is a massive build-out of AI infrastructure. So when I draw a comparison to the dot com bubble, this is where I am seeing the strongest correlation. If Anthropic and OpenAI were to stumble along the way, all of these companies, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, AMD, XAI, Broadcom, Nvidia, would all be negatively affected. These companies have assumed debt on behalf of their customers. The hyperscalers together represent about $3T of off-balance sheet risk. The debt in 2000 was 1T but the collateral had much more durable value than the collateral backing today's debt. Therein lies an extreme level of risk in my opinion. If these companies don't earn nearly 1T per year in real operating margin for the next 3 years they stand a very high chance of defaulting on that debt. ----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we're examining a form of apartment distress that can hide in plain sight. One of our team members recently visited , a 500-unit apartment complex in Pflugerville, Texas, just north of Austin.It is relatively new. Construction began in 2021 and the completed project was turned over in May of 2023. This isn't a tired 1970s apartment complex suffering from decades of deferred maintenance.Let's follow the property through the tax records.In 2021, while the project was getting underway, the assessed value was about $5.3 million.In 2022, it increased to $6.8 million.By 2023, with construction well underway, the assessment had reached $34.8 million.Then the project was completed.The following year, the assessed value jumped to $114.4 million.Think about that.In a single year, the taxable value increased by nearly $80 million.The resulting 2024 property tax bill was approximately $2.53 million.For 2025, the assessment was reduced to $105 million and the tax bill fell to roughly $2.36 million.Austin experienced extraordinary population and rent growth during the pandemic years. Interest rates were low, cap rates were compressed and developers responded to the demand by building thousands of new apartments.Eventually that new supply arrived.Rents softened. Concessions increased. Occupancy became more competitive. At the same time, interest rates increased and multifamily cap rates expanded.Today, It is advertising one-bedroom apartments starting around $1,100 per month. More importantly, the property has been advertising concessions of up to ten weeks free.Ten weeks free on a twelve-month lease is nearly a 19% concession.So we have two very different things happening at the same property.The tax records say the property was worth $114 million in 2024 and $105 million in 2025.The rental market is simultaneously forcing ownership to compete for residents using lower rents and substantial concessions.That raises a simple question.If you were buying It today using today's rents, today's concessions, today's expenses and today's cap rates, would the income support a $105 million valuation?--------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

I'm going to go on record with a prediction that's somewhere in the next six months, we will see a major pull back in the stock market specifically tied to artificial intelligence. My reasoning for this is three-fold:There was a change to the generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), a few years ago. Data center investments have been delayed due to community opposition.We have a large amount of hardware that has already been delivered that is yet to be installed. The combination of these three factors will appear on company earnings statements within the next two quarters which will have a negative impact on stock valuations. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Shane Pogue is based in Dallas Texas. He has a background in criminal investigation from his years at Fidelity. Today he helps real estate investors with all forms of due diligence. To connect with Shane, visit his website at Aegis Risk Solutions Investigations or on Linkedin at https://www.linkedin.com/in/shane-pogue-6b900a11a/------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show I'm sharing a segment of the Land Development Mastermind hosted by Brandon Cobb. We're touching on a subset of the top 10 land development pitfalls. -----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's episode, we are tackling a question that is front and center for almost every capital allocator, developer, and buy-and-hold investor right now: Should you freeze your major investment decisions until after the upcoming U.S. midterm elections?When you turn on the news, the message seems clear: danger ahead. The equity markets get jittery. Bond yields swing unpredictably, taking mortgage interest rates along for the ride. Capital providers start tightening their underwriting standards, and institutional money pauses to see which way the political wind is blowing.In times like this, the natural human instinct is risk aversion. Many investors decide to step back, lock their cash in treasuries or high-yield savings, and say, 'I'm just going to wait until the dust settles before making my next acquisition.'Some will. In fact, many will.But today, I want to challenge that line of thinking. Is waiting for election clarity actually a prudent risk-management strategy, or is it just market timing in disguise?The illusion of 'waiting for clarity' assumes that after the election, certainty will magically return to the market. But historically, does it? If one party wins a narrow majority, you might see months of lawsuits, recounts, or legislative standoffs. If power shifts, you face potential shifts in tax law, capital gains treatment, or environmental regulations. If power remains divided, you get gridlock—which, ironically, Wall Street often likes because it prevents radical policy shifts, but it also means long-standing issues like housing affordability and infrastructure funding go unaddressed.Clarity is a mirage. If you wait for complete political and economic clarity before deploying capital, you will be waiting forever.----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

If you look back through the history of modern business, you'll notice a distinct pendulum swing. There are eras where vertical integration is the ultimate gold standard, and there are eras where asset-light outsourcing is the only way to survive.So, where does real estate fit into this pendulum swing? And more importantly, as a real estate business owner, should you be building everything on your own, or should you be outsourcing everything but the core strategy?-----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we're going to talk about a Washington Supreme Court decision that, on the surface, is about natural gas.But I think the much more interesting story is what this ruling could mean for the way laws are written, and by extension, for real estate investors trying to understand the rules under which they are making long-term investment decisions.The case is called Climate Solutions versus State of Washington. On September 17, the Washington Supreme Court struck down Initiative 2066, a ballot initiative that Washington voters had approved in 2024. The initiative was broadly aimed at protecting access to natural gas and limiting government policies that would discourage its use.But the court did not strike it down because of the merits of natural gas policy.It struck it down because of the way the initiative was constructed.Washington's Constitution contains a remarkably simple sentence. Article II, Section 19 says:“No bill shall embrace more than one subject, and that shall be expressed in the title.” Historically, courts have allowed fairly broad legislation. A bill dealing with transportation, for example, can obviously contain provisions governing roads, transit, bridges and funding.But the Washington court emphasized that it is not enough for every provision merely to relate to some enormously broad title.There must be what the court calls vertical rational unity — the provisions have to relate to the overall subject of the legislation.But there must also be horizontal rational unity. In other words, the provisions need to relate meaningfully to each other.43 states have similar single subject provisions in their constitution. So this is not just a Washington issue. This ruling will likely be cited in other jurisdictions. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

When I first started investing in real estate, I was taught a very simple technique.Drive the neighborhoods. Look for the houses where the lawn is overgrown, the gutters are falling off, the paint is peeling, and the maintenance has clearly been deferred.The year was 2010. We were in the middle of the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, and hundreds of thousands of homeowners were in financial distress. Sometimes the first evidence of trouble was not in a foreclosure filing. It was visible from the street.I think we need to start applying that same thinking to multifamily.One of our team members recently visited a relatively new Class A apartment complex in Pflugerville, Texas. There were plenty of cars in the parking lot. This was not some abandoned property.But the property wasn't showing like Class A.The landscaping was neglected. Cleanliness was below what you would expect from a relatively new luxury property. There were visible signs of deferred maintenance.The question is, what does that tell us?----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On August 2, I published an interview with Dr. Anas Alhajji on this podcast. Dr. Alhajji is an energy economist, and during our conversation one thing was clear: a shortage of oil tankers was coming, and it was going to ripple through the global energy supply chain.That was the story in early August for anyone who was paying attention.Now it's mid-September, and this is a front-page story in the Wall Street Journal.Let me be clear: I'm not criticizing the Journal. It's a great newspaper. But look at the timeline. The information was available. The analysis was available. The mechanism was understood. And it took roughly six weeks for the story to cross the threshold from "specialists are discussing this" to "this is headline news."That gap is the subject of today's episode.-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Mark Shuler is based in Seattle, Washington. He currently has over 4,000 apartments in his portfolio, largely in Texas. On today's show we are talking about the irrational exuberance of the past few years and the reckoning that is taking place in the market. To connect with Mark you can visit is architecture peactice at https://www.shulerarchitecture.com/ or his investment firm at https://sgreinvestments.com/.--------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Tim Dowling is. based in Austin Texas. He is building a shopping center in a suburb of Austin along the I-35 corridor. On today's show we are talking about what is driving the demand and the design of the project. To connect with Tim, reach out to him on LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/in/dowlingtim/ or at https://budacapitalpartners.com/-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

If you've been in the development game for more than five minutes, you know the scenario. You find a parcel. You spend eighteen months and hundreds of thousands of dollars on environmental studies, traffic impact analyses, civil engineering, and public hearings. You work tirelessly with the city planning staff, you follow the local comprehensive plan to the letter, and finally—finally—the city council approves your Planned Unit Development, or PUD.You pop the champagne. You start pulling permits.And then, two weeks later, you get the notice. A group of local activists who don't want seeing new construction near their backyards have organized a petition drive. They've gathered enough signatures to trigger a public referendum to overturn your project's zoning approval on the next municipal ballot.Suddenly, your multi-million-dollar project, your capital stack, and your entire timeline are held hostage by a local popularity contest.Here's what happened. A project involved a site-specific Planned Unit Development in Telluride, Colorado. The land was designated for a specific site plan, including an element aimed at addressing local workforce housing—a major need in mountain resort communities.When the local authority moved forward with approving the site-specific modifications to the PUD agreement, opponents organized a petition drive. They sought to use direct democracy—a citizen referendum—to amend or repeal the PUD agreement directly on the ballot.The case went all the way to the state Supreme Court. And the Court came back with a decisive, unanimous answer: No. You cannot use a ballot initiative or public referendum to overturn an administrative land-use approval.-----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Today's show is sponsored by the Cost Segregation Guys. To save on taxes, visit the Cost Segregation Guys and learn how they can reduce your taxes. ------------When the media talks about a trade war, the discussion usually focuses on tariffs.The United States puts a tariff on Canadian steel. Canada responds with a tariff on American products. Then economists calculate how much prices might rise and which industries are going to be hurt.But tariffs are only one weapon in a trade war. There is another form of competition taking place that gets far less attention, and it may ultimately have a much larger impact on where companies decide to invest.Yesterday, the Canadian government announced what it calls the Productivity Mega Deduction. The proposal would allow businesses to immediately expense a much broader range of capital investments acquired after September 15 of this year.Instead of buying a piece of equipment and depreciating it gradually over many years, businesses could deduct the entire qualifying investment immediately.The United States has long had an advantage in this area through bonus depreciation.Canada is now effectively responding with its own version.-----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Today is Fed rate day. This afternoon Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh announced a unanimous decision to increase the Fed funds rate by 0.25%. Today we're going look deeper into the bond market functioning and not focus on the Fed. But the real question is whether the Fed leads the market, or whether the market has in fact determined interest rates independently of any committee decision. Was the Fed announcement merely a reflection of what the market has already been saying for weeks?You see bond yields are determined by the laws of supply and demand, combined with a risk premium layered on top of the coupon rate.The simplest explanation for bond yield and discounting the bond price is to ask each of you listening to this podcast for your own personal decision when presented with a bond offer. Let's imaging for a moment that the coupon rate on a 10 year bond is 5%. That is the rate to maturity. But now let's say that inflation is running at zero percent per year. That 5% face value on the bond is real income that is coming to you each and every year for that 10 year period. At the end of 10 years you get the final year of interest along with the full face value of the bond. That's the ideal scenario that every investor would want. But now let's imaging a different scenario. Let's imagine that inflation is running at 4% and the bond has a face value of 5%. The simple math says that your yield is only 1% above the face value of the bond. So while the bond says 5%, the currency is being devalued by 4% leaving a difference of 1%. That might not be so attractive. So instead, you decide you're going to offer to buy the bond at a discount in order to compensate for the fact that the bond is only giving you a yield that is 1% above inflation. You will notice that the Fed's opinion of interest rates didn't come into the conversation for your personal investment. You are merely making a decision about what rate you want the bond to yield in order to meet your investment criteria. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On September 11, the U.S. Department of Energy launched a new initiative called Building America New Construction Support program.The stated goal is pretty simple.Help builders build faster, reduce costs, and deliver lower-cost, higher-quality buildings.The program is available to residential, commercial, and industrial builders, and it connects participants directly with technical experts from the Department of Energy and the U.S. National Laboratories.According to the Department of Energy, the time and cost required to construct new housing, commercial buildings, data centers, and factories have become barriers to meeting demand.The new program is designed to address specific technical problems that builders are encountering in the field.A builder can bring a particular challenge to the Department of Energy, and DOE will attempt to match that company with subject matter experts who have the expertise to help solve it.And there is an important feature here.The technical assistance comes at no direct cost to the builder.This is not a grant program where the federal government is funding the construction project itself.The value being offered is technical support.-----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we're talking about one of the quietest ways a deal gets killed. Not a rate move, not a cost overrun. A city council vote you assumed would never happen.Let's start with the constitutional plumbing, because it explains everything that follows.In the United States, municipalities are creatures of the state. They have no inherent sovereignty. Their zoning power, their taxing power, their permitting authority, all of it is delegated from above. Most states follow some version of Dillon's Rule, which says a city can do only what the state has expressly authorized it to do.Now, if you stop reading there, you would conclude something very reasonable and very wrong. You would conclude that when a state or the federal government creates a housing incentive, it flows downhill automatically. The state says multifamily is permitted near transit, so multifamily is permitted near transit. The state creates a property tax exemption for workforce housing, so the exemption exists.That is not how it works. And I see investors underwrite as though it is.Here's the thing. The fact that a city gets its power from the state doesn't mean the city is obedient. Let me give you real examples.Massachusetts passed the MBTA Communities Act. It requires 177 municipalities in the transit service area to zone at least one district for multifamily as of right. This is a mandate. Not a suggestion. The town of Milton hired a consultant, filed an action plan, and adopted the overlay district in December of 2023. Two months later the voters overturned it by referendum. The Attorney General sued. The Supreme Judicial Court upheld the law. And five years after passage, in January of 2026, the AG had to sue another nine towns for continued noncompliance.So even a hard mandate with an enforcement mechanism took five years and multiple lawsuits. If your pro forma assumed as-of-right entitlement in one of those towns in year one, you were carrying a multi-year hole.Florida' Live Local Act created a seventy-five percent property tax exemption for units between 80%-120% of AMI. Local taxing authorities were allowed to opt out, and thirty-four of the forty-nine eligible counties did exactly that. Their reasoning was straightforward. The state gets the policy win, the county writes the cheque. Because the exemption generally applies only after completion, lenders were discounting it at underwriting. So even where the incentive survived, it didn't reliably show up in the capital stack.Colorado is my favourite case, because it's the trap that looks like a win. Proposition 123 sent about three hundred and fifty million dollars a year at affordable housing. More than two hundred jurisdictions opted in, covering over ninety percent of the state's population. Looks like near-universal adoption. But the piece that actually matters to a developer is the ninety-day fast-track approval commitment, and as of early 2025 roughly five jurisdictions had implemented one. Opting in and building the machinery were two different votes, years apart.-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Michael Flight has been specializing in shopping centers since the mid 1980's. On today's show we are talking about how shopping centers are going through a revival of sorts. We're talking about where the demand is and how to create value in shopping centers. To connect with Michael, you can find him on LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-flight/ or at his company Concordia Realty. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Eddie Fong is based in Seattle and he started his career at companies like Microsoft, Dropbox and Salesforce. In the past year he has taken that software development expertise and started applying it to the world of multi-family investing. On today's show we are talking about the US of AI in real estate and how the capabilities are evolving. To conenct with Eddie visit https://mistryos.com/ or reach out to him at eddie@mistryos.com.-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Canada has a housing shortage. But at the same time, parts of the country have too many condominiums for sale.Those two statements sound contradictory. They're not.Toronto has experienced a historic collapse in new condominium sales. In 2025, only about 1,600 new condos were sold across the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. That was down roughly 60 percent from the previous year and approximately 95 percent from the peak recorded in 2021.This is more than a slow market. It represents the failure of the financial machinery that produced much of Canada's new urban housing.A condominium project is usually financed in stages. Before a lender advances construction financing, the developer must demonstrate that a significant percentage of the building has been sold. Purchasers sign agreements and provide deposits. Those presales give the lender confidence that the completed units will generate enough revenue to repay the construction loan.The foreign-buyer ban was politically simple. Foreign buyers were portrayed as part of the affordability problem, so excluding them appeared to protect Canadians.The emerging condominium crisis reveals that capital performs more than one role. It can inflate the price of existing assets, but it can also finance the production of new ones.Canada may now be forced to decide whether it wants less foreign ownership or more housing badly enough to accept the capital required to build it.That is the tension.The country did not eliminate the need for investor capital. It merely reduced the number of investors allowed to provide it.------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we're talking about a construction risk that may not be in your pro forma.You might say, "Victor, I only hire legally authorized workers. Why should immigration enforcement affect my project?"That's a perfectly reasonable question.But it misunderstands how a construction labor market works.Construction pricing is not determined solely by who works on your job site. It's determined by the depth of the entire labor pool competing for the same work.Over the past several months, immigration enforcement in the United States has accelerated considerably.ICE arrests increased from 32,545 in May to 43,021 in June, and then to 49,571 in July.Nearly 40 percent of the July arrests occurred in Texas and Florida.Now, those numbers by themselves don't tell us much about construction. But when you look at what is happening in individual markets, the picture becomes more interesting.In Austin, Texas, one large homebuilder reported that framing labor costs increased between 25 and 50 percent in a matter of weeks.-----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On Sept 10 at 8PM EDT, 5PM PDT, I'm hosting a live conversation with Jacob Blackett, CEO of Sponsorcloud. We are going to be talking about how software can improve the investor relationship for private investments. If you can't attend, register anyway and we will send you the recording. CLICK HERE to register. -------------For generations, automobile manufacturing has been one of the great economic anchors of North American cities.Think about Detroit, Windsor, Oshawa, Toledo, Louisville, Georgetown, Kentucky, or countless smaller communities throughout Ontario, Michigan, Ohio, Indiana and Tennessee.The automobile plant was never just a factory.Thousands of people worked inside the plant. Thousands more worked for suppliers making seats, dashboards, transmissions, brakes, electronics and stamped metal components.Then there were trucking companies, warehouses, restaurants, hotels and service businesses.Those paychecks eventually found their way into houses, apartments and shopping centers.But something fundamental is changing.China has become the world's dominant electric-vehicle manufacturing center. In 2025, nearly 22 million electric cars were produced globally. China manufactured about 16 million of them.That's nearly three quarters of global EV production.More importantly, China produced about 20 percent more electric vehicles than its domestic market consumed.VW just laid of 50,000 people and announced another 50,000 workforce reductions. Nissan is in trouble. Honda is in trouble. Stellantis has excess capacity. We will see major changes in the auto industry globally. Are your real estate investments reliant on auto manufacturing or some portion of the supply chain as the employment base? -------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show, we're looking at what boats, recreational vehicles, and cottages can tell us about the economic cycle.The pattern is familiar. Demand exceeds supply. Prices rise. Producers expand. Buyers accelerate purchases because waiting appears expensive. Lenders become comfortable financing assets whose prices keep climbing.But supply takes time to arrive. By the time factories expand, subdivisions get built, or boats leave the shipyard, demand may have changed. Yesterday's shortage becomes tomorrow's inventory problem.We've seen this in many segments of the economy like real estate, semiconductors, and oil. High prices encourage the investment that eventually undermines those prices.The pandemic added another ingredient. We pulled future demand into the present. Families bought the cottage, boat, or RV several years earlier than they otherwise might have. Suppliers could mistake that temporary rush for permanently higher demand.Once you've bought a boat, you don't need another one next year. Tomorrow's customer already bought yesterday.Consider the catamaran market. One market commentary puts used inventory at 1,161 boats, against estimated annual sales of approximately 290. Those figures imply that only about 25 percent of today's inventory would sell in a year at that pace. Roughly 871 boats, or 75 percent, would remain, before accounting for new listings or withdrawals.That's approximately four years of inventory.Many of these boats are structurally upside down. They depreciated faster in the first five years than the principal paydown on a 20 year amortized loan. So if you have real estate that is linked to the recreation business cycle, you want to pay close attention to what is happening in this segment. --------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we're going to take a trip around the world through one very specific lens: the yield on the 10-year government bond.This is not just a tour of interest rates. The 10-year bond is one of the clearest places where investors collectively put a price on inflation, fiscal policy, monetary policy, currency risk, and increasingly, geopolitics.As we record this, the U.S. 10-year Treasury is around 4.8 percent. Germany is around 3.35 percent. The United Kingdom is above 5.1 percent. France is around 4.2 percent. Italy is also around 4.2 percent. Japan has crossed 3 percent, and South Korea is around 4.4 percent.Those numbers are interesting individually. But the comparison between them is where the story starts to emerge.And there's another dimension to these numbers that I think makes the story even more interesting.Ask yourself: When was the last time these countries were paying this much for 10-year money? Some of these date back 20 years, and in some cases 30 years. What does that mean for the global demand for US Treasuries, independent of geopolitics? Why take currency risk if you can get decent yield at home? If there are fewer buyers for US bonds in Germany or Japan, those bond prices fall and you will pay more for a loan in the US. That's the link. ---------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Jared Jones is based in Riverside California. On today's show we are talking about the newest housing legislation and the impact it is having on adding supply to the housing stock. To connect with Jared, visit middlehousingpartners on Instagram or Jared Jones on LinkedIn.**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Bronson Hill is based in Pasadena California. On today's show we are talking about how accelerate the rebuilding process after the devastating fires that destroyed thousands of homes in Los Angeles County and in communities like Altadena. To connect with Bronson and to learn more, visit https://bronsonequity.com/ or send test message to with the word "Cashflow" to 33777 he will send you a copy of his 3 favourite cash flow ideas for 2026. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Traditional property management software digitized filing cabinets: it recorded payments, stored documents, and logged complaints, but did not change how work moved through the process.Managing a community is not one job. It is a constant relay race among residents, boards, managers, accountants, banks, vendors, and regulators. A homeowner reports a leak. Someone identifies the property, checks responsibility, alerts a vendor, gets an estimate, seeks approval, schedules the repair, pays the invoice, updates the books, and closes the loop with the resident. Every handoff is a chance for delay, duplication, or failure.Vantaca offers a useful glimpse of what comes next. Founded in 2015 and focused specifically on community association management, the company says its platform now supports more than 550 management companies and 6.5 million homes. Its big idea is to become a “system of action,” not merely a system of record.----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

I spent some time this week looking at a new playbook out of the AI world, describing what they call the "AI-native software development life cycle." And the more I read it, the more I realized: this isn't really a software story. It's our story. The steps engineers use to build a software application are almost identical to the steps we use to take a piece of dirt and turn it into a building. Plan, design, build, test, deploy, maintain. Swap "code" for "construction drawings" and you're reading our world in real estate development.-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Visit The Cost Segregations Guys, our sponsor using this link for a discount. Cost Segregation is the key to accelerating depreciation and improving cash flow in your portfolio. ------------On today's show we are looking at why Property Tech company Peerspace filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. For over a decade, Peerspace was celebrated as the "Airbnb for hourly space." The company promised to unlock millions of dollars in value hidden inside under-utilized physical real estate. But its sudden filing in bankruptcy court exposes the deep structural vulnerabilities of trying to monetize space by the hour.The company Peerspace was supposed to revolutionize the industry. But operational friction choked its unit economics, and we will look at the severe liability issue that ultimately forced its restructuring.-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Our book this month is “Learned Optimism: How to Change Your Mind and Your Life” by Martin Seligman.  It is an influential book about the way people explain success, failure, adversity, and disappointment to themselves. Seligman, one of the most important figures in the development of positive psychology, argues that optimism is not simply a personality trait that people either possess or lack. Instead, he proposes that optimism can be learned by changing the habitual explanations people make about events in their lives. The result is a book that combines psychological research, practical exercises, and personal reflection to explore how our thinking patterns influence performance, health, relationships, and resilience.A pessimistic person is more likely to view a setback as permanent, believing that the problem will continue indefinitely. The same person may also view the problem as pervasive, assuming that failure in one area means everything is going badly. Finally, the pessimist may personalize the setback by concluding that it happened because of a fundamental personal weakness. An optimist, by contrast, is more likely to see the same problem as temporary, limited to a particular situation, and caused by factors that can potentially be changed.-----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Back in 2018 we made the decision to invest in Lake Charles Louisiana.  The thesis behind investing in this market is that the community is at the epicenter of a network of natural gas pipelines. Like some things in the energy industry, the timelines can be long and major projects often get delayed. As a result, not all of our projects in Lake Charles have gone as planned. The south coast of the US is blessed with a lot of oil and natural gas. In fact, there is so much natural gas that US prices for natural gas are consistently among the lowest in the world. There are lower prices in the middle east in there Persian Gulf, but these are often government subsidized prices. So anywhere you have very low energy costs, you will find energy intensive industries setting up shop. This is why most of the LNG plants in the US are along the gulf coast. You will also find petrochemical plants than manufacture chlorine for swimming pools, fertilizer plants, ethane crackers for manufacturing polyethylene, to name just a few.Let's go through an inventory of the current projects that are underway in this small town. There is the Louisiana LNG project where the first phase of the project consists of a $17B investment. There is the Venture Global CP2 facility which is a $32B investment. Then there is Commonwealth LNG which is a $12B project. The Cameron LNG project recently entered production and is now exporting 15M metric tons of LNG. The first phase of Venture Global is also in production and pumping out 12 million tonnes per year of LNG. Last week SpaceX announced their Louisiana Space port with Governor Landry in attendance. SpaceX plans nearly 30 launches per day from 10 launch pads once the spaceport is fully built out.  This $100B investment will bring 10,000 permanent jobs to the area. But if you are going to be launching a lot of rockets into space, you will also need a ready source of propellant.  SpaceX uses natural gas and oxygen as the propellants involved in the reaction. They need a few things to build a launch site on this scale. They need to be south facing with ready access to a coastal area to the south. They need a massive supply of natural gasThey need about 125,000 acres that are far from population centres so as not to interfere with residents. This location in Vermillion Parish in Louisiana is almost exactly equidistant between Lafayette Louisiana and the location of our property in Lake Charles. Now the market conditions seem to point to bringing a new apartment project into our construction pipeline. We are actively getting quotes and arranging financing for this project. We don't know what the future holds. After all, we live in an unpredictable world. But if the current demand persists, this project is going to make a lot of sense, not just for the next few years, but for the longer term outlook.-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Today's show is a talk that I gave to the members at American IRA last week. We're talking about how the old value add playbook for apartments is broken and a different asset segment that we believe is working instead. --------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Michael Bull is based in Atlanta and he heads up Bull Realty. He is also the host of America's Commercial Real Estate Show. To connect with Michael email him at michael@bullrealty.com or visit bullrealty.com. The podcast can be found at https://www.creshow.com/-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we're talking about short-term rentals, and more specifically, a change in how governments are enforcing short-term rental regulations.For years, most short-term rental regulation focused primarily on the property owner.Do you have a license? Are you collecting the correct lodging tax? Are you violating occupancy limits? Are you operating in a location where short-term rentals are even permitted? Some places enforced permitted uses through the zoning code. Some chose to overlay special regulations for short term rentals independently of the zoning code. Increasingly, governments are asking a different question.Why chase thousands of individual property owners when you can regulate the handful of technology platforms where nearly all of these transactions take place?That shift is happening right now.-----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

There is a strange thing happening in rental housing across the United States.If you looked only at national statistics, you might conclude that the business of owning an apartment is largely unchanged. Since January 2025, more than forty states have passed, published, or court-decided something that touches deposits, notices, fees, or evictions. Each individual change can look small.Taken together, they represent something much larger.---------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's episode, we're taking a deep dive into an issue that is quickly becoming one of the most critical factors in site selection, underwriting, and property development across North America: the state of our electrical grid.If you've been reading the headlines, you've probably seen a lot of finger-pointing. The mainstream narrative goes something like this: artificial intelligence and hyperscale data centers are single-handedly overwhelming our power grid, driving up energy prices, and threatening to break our infrastructure. But if you dig just one layer beneath the surface, you realize that AI isn't the underlying cause of this crisis—it's simply the catalyst that exposed a multi-decade backlog of underinvestment.Today, we are looking at the real drivers behind grid modernization, why Public Utilities Commissions kept the system running on borrowed time, and what this means for you as a real estate investor.To understand why billions of dollars in capital expenditure are suddenly flooding into grid modernization, we have to look back at how public utilities have operated for the past forty years.-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Today, we are taking a closer look at last week's executive shakeup at Fannie Mae. A lot of market commentators are treating this as a simple administrative hurdle—telling investors to prepare for extended processing times and minor closing delays.While extended processing times are annoying, that perspective misses the real danger facing real estate investors today.The major risk isn't that your loan officer takes an extra few weeks to get back to you. The major risk is abrupt policy volatility. High-level executive changes at government-sponsored enterprises don't just swap out office nameplates—they signal an imminent shift in lending policy. -------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

There has been a lot of discussion over the past few days about tariffs and the trade relationship between Canada and the United States. The events of Friday where Canada withdrew from the negotiations put the impasse in stark terms. Most of that discussion has focused on manufacturing, autos, steel, aluminum, and politics.The trade war is clearly escalating. Tariffs are just the start. What happens if the nations take the even more drastic step of withholding exports to each other? Major parts of the US are dependent on Canada for critical resources. We don't know where this will end. But underneath all of that is a much more practical question for real estate investors.What happens when a trade dispute starts changing the cost of building?Canada is an important supplier of construction materials into the United States. Lumber is probably the most obvious example, but it goes well beyond lumber. Steel, aluminum, cement, plywood, and a number of manufactured products cross the border every day. The trade dispute also puts the agreement with Mexico in uncertain territory.Higher construction costs are obviously not helpful if you're trying to build something today.But they can have a very different effect if you already own the finished product.If a new apartment building becomes more expensive to construct, some projects that were marginal simply don't get built.If fewer projects start this year, there may be fewer units delivered two or three years from now.That can reduce future competition for existing properties.So the same tariff can be negative for one real estate investor and potentially positive for another.The developer is dealing with higher replacement cost.The existing owner may eventually benefit from that same higher replacement cost.------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

John McNellis is based in Palo Alto and has been in commercial real estate for more than 40 years. He has been focused on grocery anchored shopping centers in Northern California for most of that time. On today's show we are talking about what is working today and the fundamentals that have stood the test of time. He is also the author of the book "Making it In Real Estate", now in its third edition. To connect with John visit https://mcnellis.com/ or email him at john@mcnellis.com. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Dani Lyn Robison is based in Orlando Florida, but operates a real estate business located in Ohio. On today's show we are talking about Senior Housing. This is one of several asset classes in their portfolio. To connect with Dani and to learn more, visit chatwithfreedom.com-----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show, we're talking about a situation that confuses a lot of investors. How can the same property have two different underwriting models, and how can both of them be correct?The answer comes down to perspective.A lender is underwriting the property for one purpose. An investor is underwriting the property for a different purpose. Those two objectives overlap, but they are not identical.Let's use a real-world example.There are a number of state and local programs around the country that offer some form of property tax abatement for qualifying projects. Perhaps the property provides affordable housing, senior housing, or satisfies some other public policy objective.The economics can be very meaningful.Suppose the property would normally pay one million dollars a year in property taxes. Under the applicable program, the actual tax expense might be a $700,000 difference in net operating income.But there is a wrinkle.The tax abatement has to be approved each year. There is a small but non-zero risk that the property might not qualify one year. Should you assume the tax abatement in your underwriting?-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Today we're going to venture outside real estate for a few minutes and talk about software. But this is really a discussion about business economics, and those principles apply to every industry.For the past twenty years, one of the most attractive business models in technology has been Software as a Service, or SaaS.Instead of buying software once, customers pay every month or every year. From the software company's perspective, this is wonderful. Revenue becomes recurring and predictable. Investors love recurring revenue, and software companies have been valued accordingly.But artificial intelligence may be starting to challenge the fundamental economics of that model.We recently conducted an audit of the software subscriptions inside our own business. Like many companies, we had accumulated numerous applications over the years. Accounting software, project management software, communication tools, document management, CRM systems, design tools, and numerous specialized applications.What became obvious was that we were paying for a tremendous amount of capability that we simply weren't using.In several cases we were subscribing to the highest tier because, at some point, somebody believed we needed one particular feature. When we looked carefully at actual usage, we discovered that the basic version accomplished virtually everything we needed.We downgraded several subscriptions and, in some cases, reduced the cost by more than fifty percent.Did productivity decline?Not at all.Suppose your company uses only ten percent of the functionality in a large project management platform.What if instead you built exactly the workflow your organization needs?Instead of changing your business process to accommodate somebody else's software, the software accommodates your business process.There is something very attractive about that.But before declaring the SaaS industry dead, we need to distinguish between development cost and lifecycle cost.----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On August 20, I'm going to be hosting a webinar on how to use AI to validate the quotes you receive from contractors and subcontractors. To register for the webinar click HERE. Even if you can't attend live, we will send you the recording. --------------Today we're talking about an announcement from the U.S. Treasury Department that has generated a surprising amount of noise in the financial markets.The two words getting attention are Treasury buybacks.Treasury announced today, August 19, that beginning September 9 it will increase, by at least double, the size of its liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated Treasury securities. Specifically, the maximum size for operations in the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year sectors will increase from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation.It might be coincidence, but this happened on the same day that US debt topped $40T. The country's “total public debt outstanding” officially hit $40.047 trillion on Tuesday, the Treasury Department reported Wednesday, ticking up from $39.987 trillion a day earlier.Immediately, people started describing this as quantitative easing, QE light, yield curve control, and even a new version of Operation Twist.I think we need to separate the mechanics from the headlines.A Treasury buyback is not the same thing as Federal Reserve quantitative easing. The Treasury is already issuing enormous quantities of debt. In a buyback operation, Treasury can issue securities in one part of the market and use some of those proceeds to repurchase securities that are already outstanding.The important distinction is which securities they are buying.The liquidity support program primarily targets what are called off-the-run Treasury securities.When Treasury issues a new 10-year note, for example, that newly issued security becomes the on-the-run Treasury. It tends to trade very actively. The older 10-year securities that were issued previously become off-the-run securities.They're still Treasury obligations. Their credit quality hasn't changed. But they don't necessarily trade with the same liquidity. That becomes important during periods of market stress. If a large investor needs to sell a significant quantity of an older Treasury security, there may not be as deep a pool of buyers as there is for the newest issue.--------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Today's episode is another AMA, or Ask Me Anything.Today's question comes from Charles, who asks:"What is your opinion of office-to-residential conversions? Namely, are they attractive enough to become a Class B property? I see repurposed motels as apartments, which I personally do not like, but I suppose there is a market for those properties."------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Later this week we're hosting a deep dive webinar on AI In Construction. To register, click HERE .Since the beginning, construction drawings have been one of the hardest documents for artificial intelligence to understand.That makes sense when you think about it. A construction drawing is not simply a page of text. It contains symbols, dimensions, schedules, notes, details and references to information that might appear twenty pages later. A symbol on the floor plan may tell you almost nothing until you find the corresponding detail or section.But something has changed dramatically over the past couple of months. The newest generation of reasoning models has become substantially better at reading and cross-referencing construction drawings. Testing across structural, civil, mechanical and electrical drawings is now showing surprisingly strong performance, particularly when the task involves extracting information from schedules, identifying specific elements and following references between sheets.That matters even if you're not a contractor.Suppose you're renovating an apartment building, replacing a roof, building out an office or doing a major addition to your house. The contractor hands you an estimate or a quote. Is it a fair price? How do you know? This is where AI is becoming genuinely useful.Register for the webinar. We have nothing to sell, just sharing how we are using AI in estimating.---------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Christina Kovacs is based in Fort Lauderdale, but she invests primarily in Missouri. On today's show we are talking about the pitfalls of remote management and how to set things up for success. To connect with Christina, visit https://www.christinakovacs.com/-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Andrew Cushman is based in Southern California, but invests mostly in the South Eastern states. On today's show we are talking about the distress in the market and what is driving the distress. Portfolios in secondary markets in states like Georgia and the Carolinas are seeing high occupancy and rent growth.To connect with Andrew visit https://www.vpacq.com/--------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we're talking about Adam Neumann, the founder of WeWork.There are probably few entrepreneurs in recent memory whose rise and fall has been documented as extensively as Adam Neumann.WeWork went from being one of the most celebrated private companies in the world, valued at roughly $47 billion at its peak, to one of the most spectacular failed IPOs in recent history.The company ultimately filed for bankruptcy years later.But perhaps the more interesting story for investors isn't the collapse of WeWork.It's what happened to Adam Neumann afterward.Because somehow, after becoming the public face of one of the largest venture-capital failures of the past decade, Neumann managed to convince sophisticated investors to give him hundreds of millions of dollars to build another real estate company.There is a lesson in that.And it starts with understanding what actually went wrong at WeWork.------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we're going to connect three things that might seem completely unrelated: the Japanese yen, United States Treasury bonds, and the interest rate on your next real estate loan.They are more closely connected than you might think.So why should a real estate investor in Dallas, Atlanta, or Phoenix care what happens to the Japanese yen?Because Japan is the largest foreign holder of United States Treasury securities. The latest Treasury data puts Japanese holdings at roughly 1.2 trillion dollars.When Japan wants to defend the yen, it needs to buy yen and sell foreign currency assets. Those reserves include an enormous portfolio of United States government securities.Now, Japan does not necessarily have to dump Treasuries into the open market. In fact, the Federal Reserve has a facility specifically designed to prevent that from happening.It's called the FIMA Repo Facility. It allows foreign monetary authorities to temporarily exchange Treasury securities for dollars rather than selling those securities outright into the market. The Federal Reserve explicitly says one purpose of the facility is to support the smooth functioning of the Treasury market by providing an alternative source of dollars. The Japanese yen has been under extraordinary pressure. It recently traded near 164 yen to the dollar, a level not seen in roughly four decades. Japan and the United States responded with a rare coordinated intervention designed to strengthen the yen. For a few days it worked. The yen strengthened to around 155. But here we are less than two weeks later, and the yen is back near 159.These interventions are not working. If the yen stabilizes, much of this concern disappears.If it doesn't, the choices become progressively more uncomfortable.Japan can intervene again. It can raise domestic interest rates more aggressively. It can access dollar liquidity against its Treasury portfolio. Or ultimately, it can sell some foreign assets.Every choice has consequences.We could see bond yields rise just because Japan can't tolerate buying oil in US dollars at 165 Yen to the dollar. -------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

The question is whether you want to partner with the city or not. The city can add value (or erode it) without being formally at the partnership table. How many people underwrite the city as part of their due diligence? ------------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)