Real Estate Espresso

On today's show we are looking at what might become another tectonic force in the world of real estate investing. The White House provides a steady stream of topics that are worthy of discussing on any real estate podcast. This week is no exception. On Tuesday of this week, the President floated the idea that maybe houses will be exempted from capital gains tax. The thinking is that this would stimulate the real estate market. A change like this to the tax code would require Congressional and Senate involvement. The final definition of what type of property would qualify to achieve the tax exempt status has not been articulated. So on today's show we are going to dive into the dangerous realm of speculation for what that might be the consequences of such a change. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we are looking at the impact of data centres on the local economy where these are located. We are looking at the energy component, and the technology life cycle. You have no doubt heard the statement that “energy is the economy.” It is true that for every unit of GDP there is an equivalent unit of energy consumed somewhere in the world. But in this instance, energy is the lifeblood of the AI industry. In addition to the gold rush in AI, there is a recognition that the world is not generating enough electricity to satisfy the incremental demand from data centres. What caught my attention this past week was not the plethora of announcements of new power generating capacity. Although that is impressive, there is something even more important that we will explore. Let's take a look at the aggregate power generation announcements in just the past month alone. Several of the announcement have been in the range of 2GW. We need to put this in perspective. 2GW of power generation is enough to power 1.5M homes. This is enough to power a city like Phoenix or San Diego or San Antonio. So when we measure the power consumption of a large data centre complex, we are comparing it to the GDP of an entire city of 1.5M homes, or about 3m people. The primary driver of obsolescence is the relentless pace of Nvidia's (and other manufacturers') innovation cycle. New generations of AI chips are released frequently, every 12 to 18 months, bringing significant leaps in computational power, efficiency, and new features.Meta's studies, for example, have shown significant GPU failures during the training of large models like Llama 3, with an estimated annualized failure rate of around 9%, potentially reaching 27% over three years for H100 GPUs. These chips consume a lot of power (700W for H100s, over 1000W for future chips) and generate intense heat, putting immense stress on the hardware.------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we are talking about changes in lending policies and how these are affecting commercial real estate loans. But first. I'd like to give the listeners to the podcast the opportunity to be among the first to get visibility of an exciting new project that will form part of our industrial portfolio. The project is located on a 21 acre parcel in Bradenton Florida. This is an area that has an acute shortage of property that is even zoned for industrial uses. The project is not open yet for investment. This is an opportunity for interested parties to learn more about the project. If you are interested in learning more, send an email to victor@victorjm.com and put the word industrial in the subject line. We will get some information over to you shortly. That's victor@victorjm.com. This is not a solicitation for investment, and any investment would be by prospectus only, limited to accredited investors residing in the US in compliance with SEC regulations.On today's show we are talking about changes in lending policies and how these are affecting commercial real estate loans. When a lender or an agency issues and update to a lending policy , it is worth paying attention to the details of the new policy. Chances are, it will either make it easier to get the loan you need or perhaps make it impossible. We have seen both situations in recent months. We're going to give several examples on today's show. ---------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we are talking about math. Yes, I know, not everyone likes math. We are going to be talking about the concept behind the time value of money and the different measures that are used to describe the time value of money. So when we are talking about time value of money, we can talk about the present value, the future value, and rates of return as all related by the same types of mathematical operations. A lot of investors perform a very simple return on investment calculation. The math is easy, but it doesn't take into account the time value of money. In that sense, it's not the proper calculation to be performing. We use the internal rate of return calculation instead. That's also true of pretty much all institutional investors as well. So on today's show we are going to dissect the concept of time value of money calculations. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Zach Westerfield is based in Forsyth Georgia where he specializes in renovating historic properties. The economics of these projects are impossible without the inclusion of either Federal or State tax credits that are confined to specific historic districts and properties that meet the historic designation criteria. This is a fascinating segment that is often overlooked. To connect with Zach, visit southvp.com ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Jace Graham is with Rising Phoenix Capital where he invests in oil and gas leases. This is the real estate end of the oil industry which is entirely based on royalties. To learn more, visit https://www.laplatapeakfund.com/----------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

I'd like to give the listeners to the podcast the opportunity to be among the first to get visibility of an exciting new project that will form part of our industrial portfolio. The project is located on a 21 acre parcel in Bradenton Florida. This is an area that has an acute shortage of property that is even zoned for industrial uses. The project is not open yet for investment. This is an opportunity for interested parties to learn more about the project. If you are interested in learning more, send an email to victor@victorjm.com and put the word industrial in the subject line. We will get some information over to you shortly. That's victor@victorjm.com. This is not a solicitation for investment, and any investment would be by prospectus only, limited to accredited investors residing in the US in compliance with SEC regulations. As always, I believe that the hyper local market situation always outweighs the macro market conditions. That doesn't mean you should ignore the macro environment entirely. One of the principal effects of the macro environment is on the cost of capital. On today's show we are figuring out how to interpret the current market conditions, or at least we're going to try. I frequently have conversations with investors who are trying to forecast the future of interest rates and what that would mean for their investment thesis. -------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we are talking about how some trade measures make no sense whatsoever.If you have children who grow into adults, you know that if those children become overly dependent on their parents, they ultimately fail to launch. These are the children in their 30's and 40's still living at home with their parents and having their parents subsidize their lifestyle. There is no incentive for them to figure out how to become an adult because  they don't have to. When countries overly coddle their industries under the guise of protecting domestic jobs, they are doing the same thing as coddling an adult child and not sending them out into the world to prosper. When an industry is protected, it's the same as letting your teenager hang out in your basement for the next 20 years. They're content with the status quo, but they're not really achieving great things. This brings us to the walled gardens of protectionist economics. If you want to see what protectionism results in, look at the Ontario egg farmers and their quota system. -------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

We keep hearing the refrain that there's billions of dollars sitting on the sidelines for commercial real estate. Well if that's true, then why is it so hard to raise capital in the current environment? Every investor and every developer I speak with is saying that investors are sitting on their wallets. There is a substantial amount of dry powder available for commercial real estate investment across various firms, with London-based investment data company Preqin putting the number at more than $350 billion. Much of it is held by the largest private equity and alternative investment firms, including Blackstone, Brookfield Asset Management, Ares Management, KKR, Carlyle Group, Apollo Global Management, TPG Capital and Starwood Capital Group.Much of the dry powder was raised three or more years ago and has been left unspent. Funds often have set periods during which they must spend money they've taken in from investors, and that deadline is approaching with many companies showing new signs of activity. -------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

If you've been listening to this show for a while you will know that I'm a proponent of the law of supply and demand. To me, the law of supply and demand is a little like gravity. If you choose to try and fool gravity, you're probably going to end up on the losing end of that bargain. It's the same with supply and demand. On today's show we are looking at three forms of downward pressure being exerted in the student housing arena. I'm going to make the simplifying assumption that over the next year or two, the amount of supply of student housing is not going to change dramatically. The real issue is on the demand side. This is a segment that quite frankly has been under pressure from simple demographics. Birth rates are down and the number of students enrolling is down. There are a number of new borrowing limits that affect government sponsored student loans in the latest tax legislation that was signed on July 4.During times of falling domestic demand for a university education, many schools try to make up the shortfall with foreign students. But here too  we are seeing falling numbers of international students coming to the US for university. This is another headwind for student housing. Layer on top of these headwinds the fact that some student housing providers had financed their properties at much lower interest rates than today's market rates. These properties will face substantially higher debt service costs when it comes time to refinance their existing debt. -------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we are talking about access to US Federal low income housing tax credits. This is something that frankly has not made headlines. The Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program is the primary federal program for encouraging the development and preservation of affordable rental housing in the United States. Here's how bonding capacity links to LIHTC and how recent legislation has changed the requirements.The Act permanently reduces the threshold for private activity bond financing from 50% to 25% of the aggregate basis of the building and land costs. They effectively doubled the impact of bonding capacity and therefore they doubled the low income housing tax credits that are possible for the same amount of bonding.-----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Ross Slutsky is a commercial appraiser based in Orlando Florida. On today's show we are talking about valuation methods that can result in significant tax savings, particularly if there are future events that can make the realization of that value contingent on those events. You can learn more by visiting pcecompanies.com or emailing Ross directly at rslutsky@pcecompanies.com.--------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Cheri Kuhn is an implementor with EOS Worldwide and is based in Seattle Washington. EOS is the Entrepreneurial Operating System that is currently used by thousands of small businesses across North America. It's based on the work of Gino Wickman who wrote "Traction" and "Rocket Fuel" and numerous other books on how to run a business successfully. On today's show we are talking about a few insights from working together. To connect with Cheri, visit https://www.eosworldwide.com/cheri-kuhnor email her directly at cheri.kuhn@eosworldwide.com--------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we are talking about a growing trend in the office market. This was reported last week in Urban Land Magazine.It seems that U.S. Office Tenants Are Becoming Buyers. Deep discounts, favorable financing, and long-term benefits are turning users into owners.-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Today's show is another AMA episode (Ask Me Anything).Marc asks, “We received a quote from a general contractor that is way above the expected averages for the actual square footage of the building. I've attached a copy of the quote and the drawings for the building. I'd love to get your thoughts on whether I need to readjust my expectations for what this project will cost to build.”-----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

At Y Street Capital, we are specialists in storage and light industrial. If you are interested in getting exposure to a portfolio of storage projects including retail, industrial and boat & RV, our storage fund might be perfect for you. To learn more visit ystreetcapital.comOn today's show we are talking about how pension funds manage asset allocation and whether individual investors can learn anything from mirroring what the world's most professional money managers do.Pension funds are the bedrock of retirement security for millions worldwide. Their primary mission is to ensure that future liabilities the pension payments promised to retirees can be met. Achieving this delicate balance between growth and stability hinges critically on their asset allocation decisions. So the obvious question for each of us as investors is, what is our ideal asset allocation? Do you think of it consciously?-----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Today's show is the second in a mini-series on the changing face of business. On Friday's show we talked about how Google is keeping search traffic on the Google platform and is not sending organic search results to the source pages in the way it used to. Traffic to businesses is dramatically reduced. This will cause many businesses who relied largely upon organic search to either adapt to whatever will replace organic search, or they will face bankruptcy. This is also going to affect every aspect of retail. So much has been written about the retail apocalypse. There is no question that the footprint of traditional retail is changing. There is much less diversity in shopping experience today than when I was a teenager. In the US we had numerous department store chains including Bloomingdales, Macy's Sears, Kmart, Bergdorf Goodman, Filenes, Lord & Taylor, Neiman Marcus, JC Penny, Walmart Target Montgomery Ward, Ames, and countless others. Today, only a small fraction of those remain. We are all familiar with the e-commerce revolution and how Amazon and Walmart are increasingly dominating this space. Even major retailers including Home Depot and Best Buy have a larger online catalog with products that are only a couple of days away from your home. But the new revolution is in a form of shopping called social shopping. This has been in existence in China for more than 8 years and is still in experimental stages in the US on a limited basis with specific platforms. So what is social shopping?  It is a method of e-commerce that integrates the social aspects of human interaction into the online shopping experience. It leverages social media platforms and online communities to facilitate the discovery, research, sharing, and purchasing of products and services. Think influencers. Think buying events. -----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Jim Ross is based in Phoenix Arizona where he is a partner at the accounting firm Pro Vision. On today's show we are talking about the provisions of the latest US tax legislation that was signed into law on July 4. The focus of our conversation is the aspects that specifically affect real estate investors. To connect with Jim, visit https://www.provisionwealth.com/------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Robby Butler is Managing Director and head of capital markets at Y Street Capital, our development company. On today's show we are talking about attacking complexity and simplifying business processes. To connect with Robby, he can be found on LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/in/robby-butler/ or at Y Street Capital.-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we are talking about the changing face of business. This is the first in a two part series that explores the connection between the online world and the offline world. We live in the offline world, even though it seems at time that we spend much of our time with a device in our hand. I need to first start with a distinction between marketing and sales. On today's show we are talking about marketing. On Monday's show we are going to be talking about sales which is a different process. 10 years ago they would scrape 2 pages for every visitor they would send to your website. That's a pretty good trade. You would share your content with Google and Bing and they would send you traffic in exchange. They would also advertise along side your organic links and would provide themselves with ad revenue as part of the implicit arrangement. That remained relatively constant over much of the past decade. The Google crawl rate has remained relatively consistent over that entire time period, up until 6 months ago.We have seen it get harder to attract traffic over the past decade. It feels like it is about 3x harder and that in fact lines up with the data. Up until the end of 2024 Google was scraping 6 pages for every visitor it sent you. But in the past six months, Google which still represents about 58-60% of all search traffic is now scraping 18 pages for every visitor it sends you. When you perform a search using AI, the AI tool gives you the link to its references at the end of each AI result. But how many people actually click on the little link icon. They don't share an entire web address with a blue link, it's an anonymous icon of two chain links. You don't know where the link is going to take you unless you click on the link and almost nobody does. The ratio of content scraping to website visits has now risen to 1500 to 1. A decade ago we were at 2:1 then 6:1, then 18:1. Now we are at 1500 to 1. Who is going to invest all of that time and effort to create content with a 1500 to 1 ratio?-----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we are looking at a divergence between lumber futures prices and current lumber composite prices. These two graphs always tend to track each other, sometimes with a small delay. But the prices always follow the futures. However, this is a moment in time when the lumber futures are diverging. The week-to-week framing lumber composite price fell by 0.5% on June 27, 2025, declining to $422 per 1,000 board feet. This was the 12th consecutive week of declines, and the lowest price since October 2024. The falling prices reflect falling demand for lumber as construction starts continue their steady decline. Production also fell in response to the fall in demand. But the July Futures price is $615, September is $664 and November is $675. That's a 60% premium over the current spot price. Holding physical lumber (spot price) incurs costs. This includes warehousing, insurance, and the cost of capital tied up in inventory. Futures prices reflect these "carrying costs" that would be avoided by buying a contract for future delivery rather than purchasing the physical commodity today and storing it. Storing that lumber incurs interest costs if the inventory is financed. So part of the difference in price is explained by the cost of carrying physical inventory. There is anticipation of future increase in demand for new construction later this year and into next year. So the market is forecasting growth, even though the market is clearly experiencing a decline over the past 6 months. Finally, the trade war is anticipating supply side constraints as we have already seen a 6% decline in lumber from Canada entering the US. This is further anticipated to amplify as the trade dispute continues. This will make forecasting of construction costs more difficult for the foreseeable future in the US which will put downward pressure on new construction until the uncertainty is removed. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we are looking at what the Fed could do that would cause a major increase in demand for US Treasuries. If the demand for Treasuries were to increase, the prices would rise and the market rate for those bonds would fall. The US Treasury would no longer be dependent on the interest rate guidance coming from the Federal Reserve. That could save hundreds of billions per year in interest costs for the US government.--------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Genesis is a profound exploration of how artificial intelligence is reshaping the human experience—our cognition, ethics, politics, and even our sense of self. Our book this month was co-authored by three people. Eric Schmidt who was the CEO of Google for nearly 20 years. In the last 15 years Eric Schmidt and Henry Kissinger developed a deep friendship which turned into several collaborations. Henry Kissinger was Secretary of State in the Nixon administration and he has continued to be influential and controversial on the world stage for most of his life. The third author is a computer scientist (Craig Mundie), the book blends historical insight, technological expertise, and philosophical inquiry.  It offers a potential roadmap for navigating the AI era. It argues that AI is not merely a tool but also challenges the foundations of human knowledge and dignity.This book was extremely important to Henry Kissinger who continued to make edits to the book during the last week of his life with Henry's wife and Eric Schmidt by his bedside.The book is divided into five main sections. Part I: The Cognitive RevolutionPart II: Human Dignity and the SpiritPart III: Politics, Security, and Global OrderPart IV: Economics and SocietyPart V: A Roadmap for the FutureGenesis is not a technical manual or a utopian or even dystopian manifesto. It's a deeply reflective, interdisciplinary meditation on what it means to be human in an age of intelligent machines. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we are taking a look at two different measurements of the exact same thing. Imagine for a moment that you wanted to cut a piece of wood. You take out your trusty tape measure and measure the distance you think you need. But then along comes an economist who says, “Oh no. You're not going to use that simple tape measure are you? That will only give you a nominal measurement. There are a bunch of adjustments to be made in order to get the real measurement.”This is a joke of course, but often jokes mirror reality. The Case-Shiller real estate market index reports both nominal (non-seasonally adjusted) and seasonally adjusted data. So when is it appropriate to use the seasonally adjusted number? Seasonally Adjusted data is best for analyzing short-term trends, like month-over-month changes, because it removes the noise of seasonality.Non Seasonally Adjusted data is better for year-over-year comparisons, since seasonal patterns occur in the same month each year.For example, I would personally compare June of 2025 against June of 2024. That's a valid comparison for the same point in the seasonal cycle on a year over year basis. For that measurement I would not use seasonally adjusted data. If I wanted to compare June to January which are at different points in the annual cycle, I might use the seasonally adjusted data. But because the seasonal variations are so large I personally would not even perform that comparison even with the seasonal adjustments. I don't know what conclusions I would draw from the data. I personally don't like to mess around with adjustments at all. I would prefer to compare this January against January the year before, and then February against the same month the year before and so on. That way there is no seasonal adjustment required for the exact same period one year earlier. It's a like for like comparison. ---------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Today's show is a talk that I gave last month at the Ottawa Real Estate Investors Organization on Small Bay Industrial. This is a segment that our firm is active in and one that we see as having structural shortages in many major markets across North America.------------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Ashley Garner is based in Wilmington North Carolina where he runs a growing investment portfolio. He's recently made the jump from 30 unit properties to 200 unit properties and is scaling the business systems to match the new portfolio. Our discussion centers around investment mandate and scaling up. To connect with Ashley, visit https://www.abgmultifamily.com/----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we are talking about distorted valuations. When you consider risk, I'm seeing what I can only describe as an atmospheric inversion in today's markets. Wall Street surged toward new record highs on Thursday, as the S&P 500 briefly topped its February 19 closing high of 6,144.15, extending a nearly $10 trillion rally from the brink of a bear market.On today's show I'm going to compare the risk free yield on US Treasuries as a baseline benchmark. In some ways, every other investment could be compared to that benchmark. I'm not going to get into the debate whether the US is going to default on its debt in the next decade or not. For the purpose of today's discussion let's take it as a given that the US will meet its debt obligations even if that means expanding the annual deficit and the global debt. We know that will eventually break down, but let's accept the US Treasury as a foundation for now. The reason I'm proposing that is that the reference for all of these investment returns is the US dollar. If the dollar is in question, then the value of all the other investments that a dollar denominated could be called into question as well. That includes Nvidia, Amazon, Walmart, United Airlines and so on. So let's call the risk free rate of return the yield on the US 10 year treasury. Today the market opened at 4.25%, pretty much in lock step with the Fed Funds rate. So whether you buy a 30 T-bill or a 10 year bond, your risk free rate of return today is at 4.25%.The argument is that if another investment is offering a lower yield, then it is somehow a better investment than the risk free rate of return. Does that make sense that the S&P 500 index would be more expensive than the risk free rate of return? --------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)  

On today's show we are reporting on a change to financing rules in the US that stand to improve the numbers for multi family apartment projects. We are talking about the HUD financing. This is more difficult financing to get than agency debt like Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. But it is superior financing. There are several different loan types. I'm going to focus on the HUD 223F loan, but everything I'm about to say also applies to the HUD 221D4 which is a construction loan combined with a permanent loan. The reason we are talking about it now is the result of a new policy change is part of a new announcement .Under the existing rules you can save up to 0.35% on your annual MIP with the Green MIP Reduction program for HUD 223(f) loans. This also applies to new construction loans like the 221d4.  The policy change eliminates the distinction for Green loans and normalizes the mortgage insurance premium at 0.25% for all multi-family loans. This reduction in rate means that all other things being equal, you could borrow 4% more in loan principal for the same monthly loan payment. -------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we are looking at our human ability to forecast non linear effects and in particular how this relates to economic forecasts. We are accustomed to looking at the world in very linear ways. When we see a car approaching most people are pretty good at estimating whether they have enough time to cross the road as long as the car is travelling at constant speed. But if the car is accelerating, virtually all people have a very hard time assessing whether it is safe to cross the road.That's the difference between a linear and a non linear system. Non linear systems have some form of acceleration.We see these types of systems all over the place. Over the short term, if the acceleration is small, people have a tendency to make linear approximations which are accurate enough over the short term.The US government makes regular updates to the financial health of the social security system. It's no secret that the math which funds the social security system is breaking down. When social security was first conceived there were 16 people in the workforce for every one person collecting benefits. Demographics have changed and today there are less than 3 people contributing for every person collecting. Another non-linear effect.We know that for the economy to grow, the population needs to grow. Shrinking working population means shrinking economy. This is a non-linear effect. The industrial revolution replaced a lot of manual labour with machinery. It didn't eliminate manual labor for all tasks. For those repetitive tasks that can be easily programmed, machines have replaced humans. The theory was that machines could replace manual labor, but not thinking. Humans would continue to be the brains behind the work performed.  But we do know that some knowledge work has already been replaced by AI and that proportion is only going to increase. So what happens to the falling demand for employees that have been replaced by AI? What will become of our society? Can we truly forecast the economy that is being impacted by so many non-linear factors?----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Visit Y Street Capital to learn more about our projects. The conventional wisdom is that when the value of a country'scurrency falls relative to its trading partners, its exports become more competitive in the global market. It's no secret that the Trump Administration is aiming to bring more manufacturing back to the United States.Global flows of capital have changed since the start of the year. While the administration wishes to bring increasing levels of capital investment to the United States many of the policies are in fact having the opposite effect. President Trump has stated publicly that he wishes the US dollar to fall compared with other currencies including the Japanese Yen, the Euro, the Chinese Yuan and the Canadian Dollar.An increasing number of investors are looking for a safe haven for their capital. The US dollar has fallen by 10% since the beginning of the year against most of the major currencies. Indications are that it is forecast to fall even further when measured against other major currencies. We think that real estate investments in Canada represent a better risk adjusted proposition right now. This is based on the following observations:1) The slowdown in new construction that we have seen across the US is also present in Canada. This means that labor rates in Canada for new construction have moderated and we are seeing extremely competitive bids for new work. 2) Immigration to the US is down significantly since the start of the year and demand for new housing will decline as a result. The US has pretty much closed the door refugee claimants. This includes countries like Afghanistan where many US allies are stranded and have no path to enter the US. 3) Immigration to Canada remains in extremely high demand. The Canadian government has reduced its immigration targets slightly, but the numbers remain extremely high especially when compared to the US as a percentage of the population. 4) Interest rates in Canada are much lower for borrowing. The 5 year Canada mortgage bond is trading around 3.1% which means that a new construction and permanent financing loan could price below 4%. Rates are not that low in the US. 5) Canada is not waging a trade war against the rest of the world. While prices for certain construction commodities like electrical equipment and air conditioners will certainly be impacted by tariffs in the US, we are not seeing the same impact in Canada. Many manufacturers have operations in North America including Mexico. These goods can flow into Canada free of any tariffs under USMCA. 6) Even with new apartment supply having entered the market, vacancy rates in most Canadian cities are far below comparable US markets. 7) If the US dollar falls further as we see the Trump administration wishing, then any investment outside the US goes up in value on a relative basis. Investing is not the same as speculating on foreign exchange rates. That alone should not be a reason for investing outside the US. It's just one of many factors to consider when looking at aggregate probabilities.When we put all of these factors together, we see a compelling case for investing in Canada, even for US investors. ---------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)  

The long awaited pull back in pricing for apartments is here. These properties don't need to necessarily be poorly performing. It's the properties that were financed with bank debt from small local and regional banks. These smaller banks typically offered loans with a 20 year amortization period and if the loan was written five years ago, the 10 year Treasury yields were pretty low at 0.7%. The loan written five years ago would have been priced in the mid 4's. Oh, and here's the important part. It would have been written with a five year term. That means the loan would need to be renewed at current rates in five years and that five year period is up now. The borrower has the option to renew with the lender at the current rate with a new loan. But at today's higher rates, even if the property is performing well, the borrower is likely to be forced to bring additional cash to the table. The situation can be improved by moving out of the local bank financing into agency debt with a longer amortization period. Instead of a 20 year loan, maybe a 25 or 30 year loan will reduce the loan payment enough to make the numbers a little more palatable. --------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Brooke Kromer is a former sports broadcaster from Los Angeles. Today she makes the Florida Panhandle between Destin and Panama City her home. On today's show we are talking about the luxury segment along this stretch of beach. To connect with Brooke visit https://www.compass.com/agents/brooke-kromer/?referrer=omniboxYou can also visit her Instagram at https://www.instagram.com/brookekromer/?hl=en------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

David Becker is a principal with Time Equities based in NYC where his firm invests across 38 states and in Canada in multiple asset classes. Today's investment mandate has narrowed to focus more on opportunistic plays in industrial and multi-family. To connect with David, visit Time Equities--------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

We are building a new apartment building in Ottawa Canada that is focused on meeting the housing needs in one of the hottest areas of Canada's capital. Projects in Canada are largely insulated from the uncertainty associated with the current US trade war. There is a window to participate in this exciting investment opportunity for accredited investors. This includes investors who reside in the United States. This is not a solicitation for investment. Any investment would be by prospectus only and in compliance with securities regulations. To find out more, visit Y Street Capital where you can learn more about this investment opportunity along with other opportunities in our development pipeline. Click HERE to learn more. If you don't have an account, then register to gain access to the resources on all of our projects. On today's show we are looking at the development of LNG facilities and how this is impacting demand for real estate along the Gulf Coast of the US.  We are going to look at two main areas on today's show. We need to put these investments into perspective. Each of them measures in the 10's of billions of dollars. --------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Jeff Currie is the Chief Energy Officer at the Carlyle Group, one of the world's leading private equity firms.He is the former Global Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, where he helped to build their commodities business. During his nearly three decades at the firm, he became one of the leading commodity market analysts.He authored a paper called "The New Joule Order" in March of this year. In that paper he asserts that decisions affecting energy investment are no longer being driven purely by cost or even environmental concerns. Rather, they are being driven by energy security considerations. This affects real estate investors that are making assumptions about energy investments that have regional impact on real estate in those area.-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we are talking about a political setback for one of our projects. If you have been following this show for a while, then you know that we own a large property on the edge of Colorado Springs consisting of 1783 acres. We started developing the master plan for this project a couple of years ago. The annexation was approved by city council by a vote of 7-2 in both the first and second reading in front of council at the end of January this year. In April a petition was launched by another developer to oppose our project. The requisite number of signatures were collected on the petition and our annexation was put to a special election which closed yesterday on June 17.  The special election resulted in overturning the city council decision to annex the property into the city.  The vote was overwhelmingly against our project with more than 81% voting against. The property is currently going back into the county as a result of this vote. There are a number of options for the project at this point.I can tell you that we have a well developed plan B and plan C. We are not prepared to publicly announce those plans at this moment. We do have strong partners who see the long term vision for this project and they have the financial strength to see it through until the end. The land is owned free and clear with zero debt. So the holding cost for the land is minimal. This brings inherent safety to the project and the project can withstand a further delay as a result of the election. The loss of the election is regrettable and disappointing. But it is not a fatal blow to our project, far from it. 

On today's show we are talking about commercial real estate and whether it is better to lease or to own your own building. Deciding whether to own your commercial building or lease office space is a significant strategic choice for any business. Both options have distinct financial, operational, and flexibility trade-offs. There are certainly plenty of examples of both business models. The question is, which one should you pick? ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we are talking about artificial intelligence and a few of the implications that are associated with it.I'm hearing a lot of chatter about how the development of AI will mean losing control of our society and our business. On today's show I'm going to make the case for maximizing the development of AI capability, but for constraining its use.But before we can talk about these ideas in the context of AI, it would be useful to talk about these same issues in the real world.The first issue surrounds the erosion of trust that is reaching epidemic proportions in our society. There was a time when you could believe what you see. With the capability of free AI tools, and for $20 a month you can generate images and videos that are nearly impossible to distinguish from reality. If you can no longer trust what you see, the circle of trust in each of our lives will become smaller and smaller. For some people it will disappear completely.--------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Anton Mattli is based in Dallas Texas where he is active in the world of commercial lending, primarily for multi-family apartments. On today's show Anton shares his perspective on how the landscape for lending has changed in recent months. To connect with Anton, visit peakfinancing.com--------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Daniel Angel Mehia is based in Atlanta Georgia where he is active in the development of Build To Rent product in a scattered site context, sometimes called infill. The demand for detached rental housing is higher than apartment housing which is currently saturated in many markets. To connect with Daniel, visit apexinvestments.us-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

We are doing a mini-series on AI tools in real estate. Some of these tools are the same ones we use in our development company Y. Street Capital. We use these tools in-house and on projects belonging to our consulting clients. If you want to learn more about how our consulting division could help you with your projects, send an email to victor@victorjm.com.-----------------On yesterday's show we spoke about land.id. This is a tool that has a ton of capability for evaluating land. On today's show we're going to start with another tool called paxiv.ai. This tool started with mapping the state of Utah first and since is mapping out the entire United States. It's now boasting over 155M properties in its database. This tool has an AI language model built into it. You can perform searches for example you can ask it to find all of the properties in a particular city that is zoned industrial with a minimum size of 10 acres. It will then give you a list of properties. You can then refine your search to say increase the minimum building height to 40 feet tall. Once you find the property you are interested in, you can then turn on a whole bunch of layers including traffic counts on roads, soil types, building inventories, housing inventory, presence of fibre optics, water, mineral rights, building permits.; all kinds of different layers. Predictiv AI has been actively pursuing strategic acquisitions to expand its capabilities. Notably, they've been involved in discussions to acquire Shift Technologies Canada Inc. (an AI-driven fleet management platform) and HouseStack Holdings Inc. (which includes real estate intelligence platforms). HouseFax Appraiser Pro: Designed for appraisers to streamline the appraisal process with automated report generation and data analysis. (Currently in development).HouseStack AI Brokerage: An AI-driven brokerage combining technology with "expert guidance" for clients buying, selling, and evaluating real estate transactions.Propsize AI: A proprietary solution using advanced AI to provide precise property measurements and features for residential properties nationwide.LiLA AI Assistant: A generative AI assistant providing instant answers on real estate, leveraging a massive 11+ million nationwide property dataset. (Currently in beta development).Homeselling AI is primarily a tool for agents, enabling them to work more efficiently, provide data-backed insights to their clients, and focus on relationship-building and complex negotiations.-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

We are going to do a mini-series on some of the latest AI tools that are specifically tailored for real estate investors. So we will be doing two shows back to back to highlight what is emerging as a new software arms race in property due diligence. On today's show we are taking a look at Land.id (formerly MapRight). This software consolidates data from multiple disparate data sources and allows for the plotting of more than 40 layers of information on top of satellite imagery. This includes survey data, soils reports, topography, zoning, to name just a few. --------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**  - Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)  - Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)  - LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)  - YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)  - Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)  - Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)**Y Street Capital:**  - Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)  - Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)  

Today's episode was originally posted in April of 2018. We are talking about the psychology of raising funds from investors. -----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we are talking about how last week's drone attack in Russia will forever change the way investments are made in military equipment and warfare in general. The economy in the US is being bolstered by a significant amount of defence spending. Europe is about to increase its defence spending on a large scale. The same can be said for Canada. Conventional warfare has been based on the premise that the biggest baddest army will overwhelm an enemy and crush any opposition. That notion got challenged in some of the most prominent writings including Sun Tzu who wrote “The Art of War” in the 6th Century BC. It was employed during the Byzantine Empire along its eastern front in the 8th and 10th centuries. Sure you can shoot a $1000 drone out of the sky with a million dollar Patriot missile. But is that an efficient defence against these new threats? Now this is a real estate show, not a military show. We're here to talk about real estate. When we think of real estate investment one of the principles is that demand for real estate follows employment.When we think of military industrial complex it conjures up images of companies like Lockheed Martin, Harris, Honeywell, Textron. These companies drive major employment. But increasingly the military industry is seeing a lot of new entrants. One of my business partners runs a incubator that is focused on the defence industry in Colorado Springs. This facility is conducting some of the most advanced research and development on new military systems. The speed and agility with which the Ukraine has modernized its underdog military is a lesson for countries looking to modernize their military. ---------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

If you would like a copy of our Due Diligence Checklist, click HERE.-----------On today's show I'm sharing the story from this past week of someone who is in our investor ecosystem. She owns several properties in a tertiary market about an hour outside Toronto. She is in her 70's and her husband has several physical limitations. She is her husband's principal care giver. She has invested in several of our projects over the years and is someone who our team holds dear in our hearts. One of her properties is over 100 years old and was in need of some exterior brick repair. She hired someone who was "in the area" performing masonry work. They had a business name that sounded big and impressive. They listed an address in Toronto and their website had plenty of testimonials and photos. I got a call mid way through the week with an urgent request for help that the contractor was asking for a large up front payment. I made it clear that she should not every pay in advance and should only pay in tranches as work is completed. There was no contract. The price changed part way through the job, and the demand for payment was a huge red flag. By all accounts, the work was well done. This is one of those stories that has a relatively happy ending. But the entire engagement was built on a foundation of lies and it could have been a real problem. -------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Jeff Peterson is based in Cary, North Carolina. On today's show we are talking about the intersection of active business and real estate and the various twists in the road that make the journey take an unexpected route. You can connect with Jeff at TurtleShellRentals.com.You can also find his new book "Are We There Yet" on Amazon.---------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we are looking at the economy and trying to figure out if the global economy is growing or shrinking, and by extension how the economy will be affected in North America.Thursday this week the ECB announced  another 0.25% rate cut while at the same time signalling that they are nearing the end of their rate cutting. --------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Jared Jones is based in Riverside California where he is taking advantage of the changing regulatory and zoning landscape to fill a unique need in the marketplace in ways that the national home builders are not positioned to capitalize on. Zoning changes have made it easier to intensify existing properties without impact fees and utility expenses while saving considerably on the land cost. You can connect with Jared on Instagram with the handle "MiddleHousingPartners". You will also find him active on LinkedIn. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we are talking about new dangers in apartment buildings that have not been fully handled in the design of buildings or the building code. Certain metals produce their own fuel once ignited. You probably have done the science experiment of lighting a piece of magnesium wire on fire. Once lit, you can put this piece of burning wire into a tub of water and it will keep burning. The conventional wisdom in fire fighting is that if you have a fire, then the fastest way to put it out is to remove its source of oxygen. But what happens when the fire produces its own oxygen and the chemical reaction continues no matter what you do? Have you ever wondered why fireworks don't go out even if it's raining? Once a firework is lit, it will continue to burn until all of the fuel is expended. Now imagine if the fire is in the underground garage in your apartment building, or perhaps in the bicycle storage room next to the lobby of your building. Those electric bicycles are now a new type of fire hazard that didn't exist a few years ago. The electric vehicles are a new type of fire hazard that didn't exist a few years ago. When I look at the risks in a building, I believe that the bicycle room represents an equal if not a greater fire risk than the garage. In many cases, charging is being retrofitted into buildings that were never designed to have electric vehicles. This is something that you as a building owner need to become educated about and take real steps to mitigate that risk. --------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we are doing another in our monthly beginner series. The real estate espresso podcast is unlike other podcasts in that most others are focused on a more entry level audience. Our listeners are sophisticated. Many of you own large portfolios of apartments. But you also have people in your life who are interested in learning more, but maybe don't have access to high quality information. The idea of sending your spouse to a $199 weekend bootcamp for beginners where they are going to be abused by sleazy sales people sounds unthinkable. So where do they go. Look no further. We are going to dedicate a couple of shows a month to topics that will accelerate the learning for less experienced investors, and might give the most sophisticated investors a new way of explaining a concept that is otherwise complex to describe.On today's show we are talking about market cycles. Market cycles are the result of the delay between perception and reality. The best analogy I can use is what happens when you drive a car. If the delay between turning the steering wheel and the car actually turning was not instant, you would have a tendency to oversteer. You would be continually wavering in your lane because of the delay between cause and effect. The same situation exists in every market, including real estate. We see it in retail where retailers rush to build inventory in order to get ahead of possible tariffs. But then they are sitting on tons of excess inventory and the manufacturers witness a cycle of feast and famine. Huge orders and then the orders dry up. This pattern repeats itself in many places in the economy.----------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we are looking at the anxiety of missing a deal. Real estate investors are deal junkies. Let's call it like it is. We're going to look at a real life example. We're going to talk about creating value with land. There are two main methods for creating land value. One is to start with raw land and carve it up and get it zoned and serviced for development. The other is to take land that has already been carved up into tiny parcels and put it back together so you can do something more substantial with it. Sellers are often of a mindset that they are the ones holding the cards. Their property is worth a gazillion dollars, especially if it has development potential. Some rich developer will come along and offer me so much more than the property is worth in its current condition to an owner occupant. In a dense urban environment land is both scarce and abundant. It's abundant in the sense that there are hundreds of properties for sale at any given time. Most of the land is not suitable for redevelopment in its current form.A case in point is a small land assembly that has already been designed for a 66 unit mid rise  building. 66 units is a bit small from a property management standpoint. Ideally a building should have more than 100 units in order to optimize the economics of staffing the project.The proposed building is already compliant with the zoning requirements and can be built by right. There are constraints on the size of a building on this street because of utility capacity on the street. A larger building would require an upgrade to the water main which would add considerable cost and delays to the project. The main constraint is water volume for fire suppression. A larger building would require a larger water main pipe and possibly a booster pump if the pressure at the top of the building is not sufficient. So we know we are not going to get more density on that block regardless of the zoning. The original land assembly consisted of two properties and along the way different scenarios of three and four properties were considered and negotiated.In the end, while a larger project would have been possible, we opted for a smaller mid-sized project at only 66 units. This past week, two more properties came up for sale on the same street. Among those was a property that had previously been considered. It was being offered at 30% below the original asking price. This is where sellers often get confused. You see there are realtors out there who will pick the most expensive comparable sale in the area and recommend that as the asking price for the sale. It's as if there is a broad market for development land and the offers will start pouring in the second the land hits the market. But when you are offering a property that will ultimately form part of a land assembly the market for buyers shrinks dramatically. You have two neighbours, one on the left and one on the right. There are only two possible buyers for your property as a development site. ----------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)