Views from Down Underer

Israel attacked Iran to decapitate its nuclear program and Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks.  Will this turn into a regional war? NZ PM will visit Beijing, with lots going on domestically and internationally what are some of their likely talking points?  Pentagon has decided to review the AUKUS arrangements catching Australia by surprise and also ahead of an upcoming visit by the Australian PM to the US. US Army celebrated its 250th anniversary with a military parade which are rare in the US.

South Korean liberal politician Lee Jae-myung won the presidency.  With Korean society so polarised is this a 'poisoned chalice.'  Trump administration in a spat with California threatened to cut federal funding, in turn California governor Gavin Newsom threatened to not turn over California's federal taxes.  What is this spat all about?  Thailand and Cambodia are having a dispute over part of its shared border.  The militaries of both countries have been mobilised. What does this mean for the concept of ASEAN as a security community?

Shangrila Dialogue was held in Singapore last week.  French president Macron spoke of the importance of Europe to engage Asia.  US defense secretary Hegseth warns about hedging and implores regional states to spend at least 5% on their defense.  Interestingly, China did not send their defense minister instead an academic delegation from their defense university.

US naval ship visits New Zealand after PLA Navy ships showed up in the Tasman Sea several months ago.  With NZ planning to increase defense spending does this mean a closer defense relationship between the two countries since the breakup of ANZUS in the late 1980s?  Philippine midterm elections shows the strength of political dynasties in the Philippines and the seeming weakness of Philippine political institutions.  Is this a sign of poor institutional design?  Wall Street Journal reports that US is planning to reduce the number of soldiers based in South Korea and Singapore warns foreign embassies not to interfere in domestic affairs.

Prominent international relations scholar, Joseph Nye, passes away.  We chat about his contribution to the study of international relations.  Catholic Church has a new pope and the first born in the US.  Asia's demand for US dollar is waning, what does it mean and what are likely implications?  US is upping intelligence gathering on Greenland and Danish government protests this action.

The general elections of Canada, Australia, and Singapore returned incumbents and shows voters are voting for stability and steady hands at this time of global uncertainty.

NZ FM gave a speech at the East-West Center in Honolulu titled "Enduring Pacific Partnerships" that talks about the importance of NZ relations with US especially in the context of Pacific partnerships.  Trump and Zelensky met just before the funeral mass of Pope Francis where Trump noted that Russia may not be serious about ending the war with Ukraine.  Lastly, the caution and warning about foreign influence in the upcoming Singapore general elections.

The new State of Southeast Asia Survey is out and provides a snapshot of public opinions from SEA about all things that concern the region.  Here is a link to the survey: https://www.iseas.edu.sg/centres/asean-studies-centre/state-of-southeast-asia-survey/the-state-of-southeast-asia-2025-survey-report/  

Trump's liberation day announcement and the 'reciprocal' tariffs led to stock market crash and high market volatility.  With global stock markets shedding trillions of dollars from its value and the eventual hit on US Treasury bonds as investors dump the bonds and yields on the bonds rise, Trump put a temporary 90-day halt on the tariffs.  President Trump and the US blinked as the market taught it a harsh lesson in international economics.  So what happened?  In this discussion, we chat about the market dynamics and political economy of 'liberation to liquidation' week.

South Korean constitutional court removes president Yoon for declaring an illegal martial law in early December 2024. New presidential election is set for June 3rd.  Trump administration launched the so called 'liberation day' by slapping 'reciprocal' tariffs on its own major trading partners.  Markets are reacting with the significant declines of major stock markets.

Former Philippine president Duterte was arrested on an ICC warrant.  What is this about and what are the implications to Philippine politics?  The P-8 Poseidon is termed as a 'once in a generation' acquisition for the RNZAF but recent news report that the servicing of the planes cannot be done in New Zealand due to absence of technical capabilities. Why?  Lastly, interesting evolution of kit/shirt sponsors of English Premier League teams in the 30 years of the creation of the league.  

Panama canal deal by Hutchison Holdings is heavily criticised by China.  What is it all about?  NZ PM Luxon led a huge delegation to visit India and announced that both countries will negotiate a free trade deal.  US is brokering a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, what are new updates.

Germany plans to spend big in defense spending as US commitment to Europe weakens, India says that benefits of postwar order is exaggerated signalling the end of the international rules-based order as we know it.  China is reported to be very critical of the recent port deals by Hutchison.  Voice of America is cutting staff and funding while Canada is reassessing whether to still buy the F35s or not.

US announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China.  Canada considers this an aggressive action by the US that seeks to weaken Canada. The fallout of the Oval Office shakedown continues as US freezes support to Ukraine.  What is happening here? What is the implications to international politics?

The 2025 German Federal election results are out: governing SPD is third, CDU/CSU is tops, the far right AfD came in a strong second.  What is the new picture of vote distribution across Germany? What does it mean for coalition and future governance?  What does it mean for its foreign policy?  Ukraine's president Zelensky went to the Oval Office expecting to discuss and then sign the US-Ukraine mineral deal, instead he got a 'shakedown' by US President Trump and VP Vance all caught on live TV.  He was asked to leave the White House not even able to enjoy a meal.  What happened?  What are the implications and fall out of this very undiplomatic live TV show straight from the White House?  

US and Russia met in Saudi Arabia to discuss ground rules for negotiations to end the Ukraine war although no Ukrainians and Europeans attended.  What does it mean?  What are the implications?  PLA Navy task force is spotted in international waters near Australia and NZ and disrupted commercial air traffic by having live fire exercises.  Why?  What is the point of Chinese navy presence?  And a quick update on the continuing saga of the Cook Island and China agreement.

Is this now an era of stick power in international relations? An era of my way or the highway?  US VP Vance spoke at the Munich Security Conference and lectured (or read the riot act) his European audience.  NZ and Cook Islands are having an uncomfortable moment in their relationship when Cook Islands signed an agreement with China without prior alert to NZ.

Busy two weeks of Trump's administration and foreign policy is no exception -- Gaza proposal, hard talk about Panama Canal, turning El Salvador as a penal colony.  Malaysia's chairing of ASEAN has been quiet and unambitious thus far, why?

US president Donald Trump has been busy since his inauguration one week ago.  We chat about his inauguration speech and other things in President Trump's eventful week one on the first week of his 2nd term as US president.

Biden bows out of politics with his farewell address.  Trump claims he has a hand in the Gaza ceasefire.  India seems to be acknowledging an assassination plot on a US citizen.  Landmines was stored wrongly in IKEA and a Polish general responsible for logistics was fired.  After years of National Geographic's Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego program, the defense secretary nominee cannot identify a member of ASEAN.

Trump threatens to take Greenland from Denmark and does not rule out the use of force.  Indonesia has joined BRICS as a full member.

Elon Musk is on the news about supporting the UK Reform Party and him dabbling into UK politics.  Canadian PM Justin Trudeau calling it quits.  Lastly, news about China paying off Houthis for safe passage in the Red Sea.

Studies about democracies in the last eight years or so have focused on democratic recession or backsliding.  Yet, there are democracies that do not regress but instead stagnate.  We discuss an academic article that suggest that some democracies hit their ceilings and do not progress further because of the legacy of nationalist polarization that persist. Reference: Aram Hur and Andrew Yeo. 2024. Democratic Ceilings: The Long Shadow of Nationalist Polarization in East Asia. Comparative Political Studies 57(4): 584-612.

We share about how the news we were watching out for in early 2024 transpired, what news caught us by surprise, and what are some of the news that we are watching out for in 2025.

Syria's Assad regime suddenly collapse after 50 years of brutal rule.  What's next?  European politics is volatile these days.  French president Macron has appointed a fifth prime minister to head a fragmented National Assembly.  German chancellor Scholz's government suffered no-confidence vote.  Many other problem spots within Europe.  So what's happening?

South Korean President Yoon declared martial law and then had to rescind it once the National Assembly voted it down.  Impeachment motion failed to pass the National Assembly leading to continued demonstrations in the country calling the president to resign.  At the moment, a political stalemate seems likely to linger as the president refuses to step down.

In this episode, our special guest Prof Youngho Cho of Sogang University in Seoul, Republic of Korea, discusses his research on why South Korea's presidential system is plague by a tit-for-tat political witch hunt.

This episode is a chat from what we have learned in our study tour of Taiwan.

We chat about the plausible foreign policy implications of the results of the 2024 US elections.

The US election has finally occurred and the Republicans seem like the big winner -- winning the presidency, the Senate, and in line to win the House of Representatives.  

We discuss Prof Yuen Yuen Ang's article on the clash of the US and China as that of two gilded ages rather than clash of civilizations.  We then talk about the polls just a few days before the US presidential election and how the election is still too close to call. Recommended reading list: https://www.noemamag.com/the-clash-of-two-gilded-ages/ Luebbert, Gregory M, Liberalism, Fascism, or Social Democracy: Social Classes and the Political Origins of Regimes in Interwar Europe (New York, NY, 1991; online edn, Oxford Academic, 31 Oct. 2023), https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780195066104.001.0001, accessed 3 Nov. 2024. Rogowski, Ronald. 1999. Commerce and Coalitions. https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9780203518588-26/commerce-coalitions-trade-affects-domestic-political-alignments-ronald-rogowski  

In this episode we discuss reports that North Korean soldiers are fighting in Ukraine.  We then talk about an essay published by the Royal United Services Institute about the possible of betrayal of Ukraine and why this betrayal is likely to happen.  We discuss the Foreign Affairs article about the problem of depopulation that the world is facing today and what this means.  Lastly, the snap election in Japan backfired for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party as it lost its parliamentary majority.

Is Musk offering money to voters considered vote buying?  Months after the presidential election, the new Indonesian president is finally sworn in.  Donald Trump apparently worked in a MacDonald's for a day, but did he really?

We chat about Nick's research presentation at the Southeast Asia Research Initiative seminar on the implications of great power rivalry on Southeast Asia and then examine whether there is validity in the concern that the United States is losing its position of influence in Southeast Asia to China as other global issues drags America's attention to the region.

We examine the implications of the conflict in the Mideast to our region and discuss a recent essay in Foreign Affairs that calls for a change of approach to US Mideast strategy.  The Khalistan movement has supporters in NZ that are holding a referendum on Sikh independence.  Then the sad news of the sinking of the RNZN survey ship in Samoa while doing a survey of the seabed.

Lowy Institute released its new Asia Power index, we discuss the method and design of this power index.  How does the construction of an index affects the rankings of countries?  

We chat about two research papers we conducted on Pacific maritime space.  One research is about Fiji and Solomon Islands and how these two countries exercise their agency and the second paper is on fisheries and maritime security issues.  We then talk about our own impressions of the US presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.  Lastly, we discuss a BBC article on the battleground states in this November's US presidential election.  Does issue saliency affected by the politics within these battleground states?

Indonesian activity in the South China Sea is increasing as the country builds its own military bases in disputed waters while ferreting out Chinese fishing vessels that intrude into their EEZ. Is this another conflict that adds to an already tense theatre? Chinese industrial overcapacity has seen protectionist actions by members of the Global South, what does this mean for Chinese ambitions as a leader of this group and its own domestic concerns? Pope Francis was in Southeast Asia, praising the diversity and social harmony in the region, what lessons can the rest of the world take from the experiences of the Southeast Asian nations in building diverse societies?

Two articles published in prominent foreign policy magazines from well-known observers of international affairs of the Asia-Pacific.  Ryan Haas in his article suggested that US planning policies on the basis of peaked China is not a good idea.  Second article is a letter from Singapore to the next US president urging the US to stopped being so obsessed with being number 1.

Japan PM Kishida steps down and opens up new leadership contest within the LDP.  Is it 'plus ca change' in the case of Japanese politics?  Clan politics seem to be the name of the game in two Southeast Asian countries -- Thailand and Indonesia.  Thailand's new PM is the formerly exiled Thaksin Shinawatra's daughter and the Shinawatra family seem to be on the mend with other significant actors in Thailand.  Indonesia's outgoing president Jokowi was supposed to be the outsider but now seems to be ensuring that his family/clan will be signficant insiders in Indonesian politics.  Lastly, NZ PM Chris Luxon gave an important foreign policy speech in Sydney.  So now that Luxon talks the talk, the question remains is can he also walk the walk considering the difficult economic situation NZ finds itself in today. 

The US election in November is creating lots of anxieties globally.  Despite the excitement with the Kamala Harris candidacy, questions remain about what is likely to happen the day after the first Tuesday of November.  What does a Harris presidency mean Asia-Pacific?  What does a second Trump administration mean for international relations of Asia-Pacific?

Theories of international relations have been constructed from experiences of continental Europe.  Yet, in the Asia-Pacific it seems like a uneasy fit because of the complex geography of the region.  In this episode, Dr Kelly Grieco of the Stimson Center in Washington DC explains to us her research on geography and its implications to coalition-building in the Asia-Pacific region.  

UK foreign minister David Lammy visits India very early into the new Labour government term in the hopes of resetting UK-India relations and mark by a focus on the importance of trade and economics.  Trump in an appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists made a controversial comment on presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris' Black and Indian dual identities.  Trump's comment shows an ignorance of identity code-switching.  Lastly, global central banks seem to feel that the worse of pandemic era inflation is at an end but when to start moving interest rates downward is still more art than science.  

US President Joe Biden has dropped out of the 2024 presidential race and VP Kamala Harris is in the race.  Is this the shot in the arm that the Democrats are looking for? Will the Democrats be able to retain the White House?  Deadly riots in Bangladesh due to student protests on job quotas.  Is there more to these riots that what meets the eye?  Japan reported a 15th year of population decline.  What are the implications of continued shrinking population?  NZ PM Luxon has been on the job less than 12 months and already his approval ratings have dropped.  Why?  Paris Olympic has started and even before the Olympic flame has been lit in the opening ceremony, a spying scandal involving the Canada's women football team has dented the idea of 'fair play' that the Olympics stand for.

Indian Prime Minister Modi visits Putin in Moscow.  Is India playing both sides or is this what is called 'strategic autonomy?'  Days before the Republican National Convention, there was an attempted assassination of ex-president Donald Trump who is also the Republican presidential nominee.  In the RNC convention, Trump selected a young Ohio politician who seems to be a younger version of Trump.  Meanwhile Democrats are trying to advise Biden to drop out of his reelection bid...which he did on Sunday...that surprised his VP Kamala Harris who he has endorsed as the Democratic nominee.

We discuss the huge Labour party victory and the calamitous Conservative party defeat in the UK general election of 2024.  

We discuss the fallout of the Biden/Trump debate for our region, is Plan B now Plan A?  Putin and Kim Jong-Un signed a mutual defense pact, what are the implications for regional security?  ISEAS study that re-analysed the Southeast Asian survey and inferred that China's power is recognised but feared meanwhile NYT article suggests that US is a more humble superpower in China's neighbourhood of the Asia-Pacific.

What is independent about NZ's independent foreign policy?  Is it myth or reality? Is it tautological? Does using the term prevent true discussion of NZ's foreign policy direction? Modi's response to a congratulatory message from Taiwan's president drew the expected protest from the PRC.  Are there meanings behind these overtures?  Saudi and US are ending a 50-year long agreement to price Saudi oil in US dollars and Saudi's commitment to use its oil revenues to purchase US Treasury bonds.  This news barely made the headlines! What are the implications?

This episode begins with our impressions of the just concluded Shangri-La dialogue in Singapore.  India's election results are in and Modi's party requires the support of other parties to form a majority.  What are the implications of this surprising election outcome?  North Korea has been flying trash balloons across their southern border and now a response from the South Koreans.

India's election is seeing dangerous rhetoric of anti-Muslim and heightened Hindu nationalism as well as the spectacular claims of Modi speaking to God.  In a speech at the recent Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, has Philippine president Bongbong Marcos inadvertently drew a red line in the Philippine-China skirmishes in the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea)? Did it just raise the temperature in these skirmishes?  Ex-US president Trump is now a convicted felon being found guilty of all 34 counts in the 'hush money' trial in New York. This throws another 'monkey wrench' to an already worrying campaign period leading up to the November election.  What are the implications to the legitimacy of American political institutions and future of American democracy as we know it?  Rishi Sunak is having it tough after he called for UK general election.  Is the Sunak government grasping for straws to prevent the likely wipeout?

Excellent essay on the macroeconomic limits of US exceptionalism and what it means for the increasingly protectionist global trading regime and the resurgence of mercantilism.  Is the US undermining the rules based order that it was a chief architect and proponent of in the post-WW2 period?  A rain-drenched UK PM Rishi Sunak announced an earlier than expected general election date in the courtyard of 10 Downing Street.  Is this an omen for a Conservative washout in the July general election?