Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

Alicia Gregory, Managing Director at Blue Owl, an alternative asset manager, joins Kopi Time to walk us through private equity, a USD12trln asset class. Drawing on her extensive experience as a PE investor, Alicia begins by going over the genesis of the industry. We then go through a number of topics, including the structure of private equity investments, key investment strategies, PE’s track record relative to public equity markets, and the state of the PE cycle and the outlook for 2025. We also cover the PE secondary market, connection between private debt and private equity, PE’s foray into retail, and possible risks in PE investment. A deep dive indeed.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kopi Time hits 5 years and 150 episodes! We celebrate the milestone with Piyush Gupta, outgoing CEO of DBS Bank Ltd. Piyush brings his remarkable intellectual breadth in this conversation, in which we touch upon various aspects of the present and future of banking. We begin by discussing how banks in Asia and the West have evolved since the 2008/09 global financial crisis, and their track record in embracing digital banking, financial inclusion, risk management, and relationship with regulators. Piyush then weighs in on conventional banks versus pure-play digital banks. The conversation moves on to the digital asset ecosystem and what that means for both banks and central banks going forward. We also talk about cyber security and banks’ role in green transition. We conclude with Piyush’s take on the promise and challenge of AI, particularly LLMs. What makes him hopeful? It’s the capacity of humanity to absorb all sorts of transformations and cataclysms, and yet move forward. This is not goodbye; we will have Piyush back.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We welcome a foremost expert on the science of aging, lifespan, and healthspan, Professor Brian Kennedy, Distinguished Professor of Biochemistry and Physiology, National University of Singapore. In this fascinating conversation, we begin by understanding senescence, the process of functional decay of organisms. Prof Kennedy explores aging at physical and cognitive levels, and its linkage with genetics, diet, and exercise. We then delve into the scientific work going with several molecules that appear to be promising in slowing cell decay, including alpha keto-glutarate, spermidine, and the in-vouge NAD. Prof Kennedy is a keen proponent of data-driven personalised approach to medicine, seeing a great deal of promise in the application of gene therapy, stem cell therapy, and artificial intelligence. At the end, I ask him if aging is a disease that can be cured; let’s just say he has an intriguing response!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We dive into the rapidly growing world of private credit. Meghan Neenan, managing director and the North America head of Non-Bank Financial Institutions at FitchRatings, walks us through the sector’s genesis, scale, depth, structure, participants, transparency of reporting, and regulatory dimension. What are the vulnerabilities around the economic cycle? Are there financial stability risks? What are the newest trends, from the spread of retail offerings to blended structures? Is this an inflection moment for private credit, as it jumps toward ubiquity? Meghan is clearly constructive.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We welcome back to Kopi Time Kishore Mahbubani, distinguished diplomat, academic, and writer on geopolitics. Our conversation, recorded in Mumbai, kicks off with India’s promise and challenges vis-à-vis the US and China, with the former turning increasingly protectionist and latter facing a myriad of domestic and external challenges. Mahbubani sees no room for emotion in geopolitics, expecting to see India follow its pragmatic instincts to pursue industrialisation with capital and technology from both superpowers. We then discuss Trump 2.0, the future of multilateralism, and Asia’s place in the great power rivalry. Always sharp and insightful.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We welcome back Dr. Deborah Elms, Head of Trade Policy at Heinrich Foundation, Singapore, for a timely discussion on intensifying trade wars. We set the context by looking at the past decade of rising protectionism and the impact on the global economy. Deborah points out that despite all the frictions, global trade volume has increased. But at the same time, industry lobbying for protection has also risen, and the dream of creating numerous manufacturing jobs has remained largely unfulfilled. The irony is that protectionism, in today’s tech and automation-intensive production processes, rewards the capital owner much more than labour. We then think through the likely measures and possible retaliations under Trump 2.0. Later we move on to the state of various trade initiatives like CP-TPP and RCEP; Deborah highlights that much more needs to be done given the intensifying headwinds. We conclude with a fascinating discussion on the evolving nature of trade in goods vs services, diffused nature of ownership, and the various, specious national security arguments. Trade war is here to stay; analysts like Deborah are crucial in navigating through the resulting fog. Deborah’s latest article: hinrichfoundation.com/research/article/trade-and-geopolitics/why-a-battle-to-define-connected-cars-matters/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Happy new year! We kick off the year with a discussion on the likely impact of Trump policies on US markets, starting with the 1890s McKinley tariff narrative. There are major lessons for the market outlook from that episode, in our view. Returning to the present, we think through the ways tariffs and immigration measures can complicate the inflation picture and the Fed easing narrative. From there, we consider implications for rates, credit, and FX. We then assess the Asian outlook in the context of Trump 2.0. We end with a stock-taking of China’s recent economic performance and the road ahead for supportive measures. Two recent publications:Macro Insights Weekly: The coming trade shock and AsiaASEAN-6 2025 Outlook: CrosswindsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We bring the year to an end with astute market strategist and Fed watcher Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar. Sri begins by taking stock of the US economy and markets, how they have been fuelled by fiscal stimulus and the Fed put. Sri is a strong critic of the Fed’s track record on price and financial stability, and he worries that inflation and market risks could be back on the horizon in 2025, even if they seem remote now. We talk about the balance sheet of US households, which look fine on aggregate, but Sri points out that those at the low-end of the income spectrum are struggling with high cost of living and debt service. On corporate balance sheet, Sri worries about commercial real estate and the proliferation of private equity and debt. We then take a look at the outlook for the dollar, gold, and EM assets. Sri sees a year of two halves; first the Trump trades and then the fading of the sugar rush. Expect a volatile 2025.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Are today's policy challenges and market behaviour largely about post pandemic macro, or are they reflecting fiscal, monetary, and financial “dominance” that stem from two decades of interventions? Mustafa Chowdhury, a veteran of bond and credit market analysis, returns to Kopi Time to offer a nuanced but highly important perspective on the impact of policy distortion on market behaviour. Why did the long-end of the US yield curve sell-off after the September rate cut? Why haven't banks reduced their duration exposure despite the regional bank crisis last year? Why are long-term mortgage rates so high and why aren't short-term products available? And still, why is the housing market so strong? What about the perennial academic and policy debate on price levels versus differences, and how has that caused monetary policy errors? Given all this, what is the outlook for rates, FX, credit, and financial stability? This rich conversation offers excellent insights; a must listen for economists and market strategists.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Gaurav Keerthi, Head of Advisory and Emerging Business at Ensign InfoSecurity, joins Kopi Time to provide a fascinating overview of the current state of affairs in cybersecurity. We begin with the intersection of geopolitics and cyberattacks. From state sponsored defensive and offensive teams to independent actors with a range of motives, the number of agents attacking the integrity of national power grids, airports, water supply, along with healthcare and education systems, has proliferated at an extraordinary pace in recent decades. In addition to nations, large companies and individuals face millions of attacks a day that are increasingly sophisticated. Even with a tiny fraction succeeding, cyber crimes have become an economy worth hundreds of billions of the dollars. Gaurav works through the processes behind building systems that are not 100% immune from cyberattacks, but capable of bouncing back in the event of an attack. With AI in play already, and quantum on track to disrupt cryptography, new waves to technology are making cyber defence more challenging, but the same tech is also being used to build tools and practices for higher degrees of surveillance and resilience. Gaurav's views are more realistic than pessimistic, focused on risk management. A must listen.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

All about India's financial markets with Ashish Gupta, CIO of Axis Mutual Fund, one of the largest and fastest growing asset management companies in India. Ashish digs into his multi-decade experience on covering Indian banks and nonbank financial companies to lay out a comprehensive picture of the current state of affairs. We go over the factors underlying the buoyancy of India's public and private capital markets, investor sentiment and behaviour on equities, RBI's regulatory role, and bank balance sheets and earnings outlook. Ashish provides excellent insights into the dynamic of successful exits by foreign investors laying the ground for the next round of inflows. Financialisation of India's economy has gone from strength to strength in recent decades; Ashish explains why this story has legs.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We dive into the implications of Donald Trump's emphatic win at the US presidential elections. Angela Mancini, partner at Control Risks, a global specialist risk consultancy, discusses the factors underlying the outcome, its implication for US policy, especially with regards to Asia. We talk about business strategies under Trump 2.0, and the key issue--risks around China-US relations. We also talk about where the Democratic Party goes from here. The podcast was recorded at our annual macro and markets outlook event. Here is the publication that goes with it. Defying the trend: Economic Outlook and Market Strategy for 2025.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What is the current state of fintech? Varun Mittal, founder of Fintech Nation, returns to Kopi Time after nearly 100 episodes to comment on the changes in the last four years. We discuss the depth and breadth of the sector, its profitability and investor returns across geographies, and the competition/collaboration relationship between banks and nonbank financial companies. We discuss fintech's role in wealth planning and financial inclusion, the proliferation of payments solutions, and the state of development in the worlds of cryptos, stablecoins, and CBDCs. Discussions then move on to the impact of AI/GenAI on the financial sector and likely forthcoming regulation.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This podcast is an 11-minute reflection on the recently concluded IMF annual meetings, held at Washington DC. The meetings were characterised by relief over global economic resiliency, juxtaposed by heightened concerns about a variety of risks. Global growth is expected to remain stable between 2024 and 2025. Concerns about inflation have receded, but we caution against a victory lap. USD weaponisation and trade wars are causing investor strategies to shift. EM resilience would be tested by the outcome of the US elections. Intersection of AI and capital markets is generating interest from regulators. We discuss a chapter in the IMF's Global Financial Stability Report on this theme.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Shai Akabas, Executive Director of the Bipartisan Policy Center's Economic Policy Program, joins Kopi Time to discuss all things US fiscal. There is no silver lining in this conversation, the outlook is gloomy, period. We begin with the US fiscal position over the past 25 years, going from balanced budget to deficits of around 7% of GDP, from net debt/GDP of 35% to 100%. Shai walks us through the various unfunded tax cuts and emergency spending outlays, with no consensus on dealing with the ballooning fiscal obligations, that led to today's situation. And the outlook, with funding for various entitlement programs getting stretched precisely when spending needs are rising due to aging, is even gloomier. Tax increases, even if not through policy but by better enforcement of current laws could help, but that requires a well-funded tax authority. Tariffs, as disruptive as they are to the global economy, make up for a tiny part of total revenues. Bold bipartisan legislation to deal with entitlements is long overdue. Spending more on interest costs than national defence or healthcare is simply not tenable for the medium term; reforms are needed urgently. Shai's warnings are loud and clear; hopefully they are heeded at some point in this decade.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Drew Thompson, Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University, brings his deep China and Taiwan expertise to Kopi Time. Taiwan stands at the crossroads of tech manufacturing excellence and geopolitical tension. How does its recent political developments look from the perspective of its local population, mainland China, and the US administration? How will its politics and economic policies evolve in the coming years? Beyond the superpowers, how is Taiwan's relationship evolving vis-à-vis SE Asia, India, S Korea, and Japan? What are the risk scenarios ahead? Drew provides unvarnished perspectives and analysis.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Writer and academic Alexander Capri returns to Kopi Time after nearly 5 years, but the issues we discussed then and now remain relevant, if not even more so. In this engaging chat, Alex walks us through the expanding notion of techno-nationalism, its impact on trade patterns and flows, and corporate strategies around geopolitical fragmentation. We touch upon the innovation race between China and the US, China's digital belt-and-road strategy, and the trans-Atlantic tech alliance. We consider the implication of all this for South-East Asia, as well as India.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Vasuki Shastry, Senior Advisor at Gatehouse Advisory Partners, returns to Kopi Time to talk about the decade-old “Make in India” initiative. From Production Linked Incentives (PLI) to splashy marketing campaigns, this has been a signature initiative by the Indian government under Prime Minister Modi. What has been the accomplishment of this effort to usher in a new era of manufacturing in India? Vasuki's report card is blunt—"it has been a qualified failure.” We go through the data on investment, job creation, technology transfer, and competition to assess his claim. We also discuss India's complex regional heterogeneity, centre-state relationship, women's participation in the labour force, the ultra-competitiveness of China, the difficulty—and perhaps the futility—of building an entire home-grown electronics supply chain, and the pull from emerging manufacturing powerhouses like Vietnam. Vasuki would like to see three key improvements ahead to convince him that manufacturing value added would rise substantially in the coming years—(i) a level playing field for businesses, with no perception of favouritism, (ii) stability of regulation, particularly tax laws, and (iii) political cohesion between the states and centre. He may not be impressed with Make in India so far, but Vasuki sees it as “an honourable aspiration to retain.” See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jennifer Sciubba, PhD, President and CEO of Population Reference Bureau, joins Kopi Time to discuss the science and policy dimensions of demographics. She begins by explaining the various ways of looking at population projections, pointing out that for most cases in recent decades, forecasts have ended up erring on the side of higher fertility. With fertility surprising on the downside and life expectancy rising, there is an overwhelming dynamic of rising median age the population around the world. Aging is pervasive and largely impervious to policy intervention. As people get wealthier and more educated, they tend to have less children, period. However, very low fertility rates likely reveal something not quite right with a society, from anxiety about cost of raising a child to a lack of societal purpose. Nonetheless, Dr. Sciubba is not pessimistic about a future with many more older people than today. The key is to strive for a society that ages without remaining ageist. Lower productivity and subdued economic growth may well be inevitable, but that doesn't need to come with a burdensome social construct. Accepting the forthcoming aging dynamic, building a dignified and resilient society with provisions for health, shelter, and requisite skills is the way to go.    You can watch Jennifer's Ted talk for a shorter version of her views: The Truth About Human Population Decline | Jennifer D. Sciubba | TED - YouTube.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Prakash Kannan, Chief Economist and Director of the Economics & Investment Strategy department at GIC, returns to Kopi Time to talk about evolving macro developments and implications for asset allocation. We cover it all in this discussion, from Fed outlook to EM resiliency, global liquidity to China policy, yen carry trade to gold, and how a portfolio suitable for the past decade is unlikely to bear similar fruit going forward. Lots of insights.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This conversation is about a flagship report on Southeast Asia's outlook. Earlier this year, researchers from DBS, Angsana Council (backed by Monk's Hill Ventures), and Bain & Company came together to query the drivers of regional economic performance in recent decades and the outlook for the coming decade. The work was done taking into account ongoing disruption from geopolitics, technology, and climate change. Charles Ormiston, founding partner of Bain and Company's Southeast Asia business, and I talk about the motivation behind the report, our key findings, and strategy for the private and public sector in light of the report's insights. Despite many headwinds, the next ten years offer plenty of exciting opportunities for the region. Hope that comes across through this engaging chat. Report link: outlook.angsanacouncil.org and Navigating High Winds: Southeast Asia Outlook 2024 – 34 (dbs.com.sg)See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Shekhar Aiyar, a Non-resident Fellow at Bruegel, on leave from the International Monetary Fund, joins Kopi Time to mount a substantive case for globalisation, a much-maligned  word in some circles these days. Sharing his cutting edge research, Shekhar refers to considerable empirical evidence to establish the gains from trade for various parts of the global economy over the past half century. He then shares findings on the cost of reversing the course, a process termed as geoeconomic fragmentation. We discuss how that is measured, the estimated costs, and the implication for international monetary system and the global financial safety net. We then move on to another strand of Shekhar's research,  productivity spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment. Triangulating data from multiple sources, Shekhar and his co-authors have put together a large firm-level cross country panel dataset. Some of the findings from analysing that dataset are fascinating, from the modes of spillover to the differing results for emerging and industrial economies. This takes us to a discussion on industrial policies' role in driving investment, and the various associated perils. Deep insights.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

James Crabtree, distinguished visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and a senior fellow at the Asia Society, returns to Kopi Time to shed light on this year of momentous elections. We delve right into the US, first by taking stock of the ongoing drama around Trump, Biden, and Harris. We then consider the scenario of a Trump re-election and the likely outcomes around a Trump defeat. James has thoughtful views on what a Trump 2.0 would mean for Asia, as well as the impact on US domestic policies. We then talk about US strategy on Asia, particularly China, under both Democrats and Republicans, and how that would evolve after the elections. James then offers commentaries on three other major election outcomes this year, in the UK, France, and India. Elections come and go, but hard economic and social challenges remain. James underscores these points astutely.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We discuss global payment trends with David Mann, Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Mastercard. From experiential travel to business events, there has been a dramatic change in consumer preferences since the pandemic, with the rise in cost of living playing a key factor. We talk about the patterns picked up from Mastercard's extensive data on transactions around the world. From shopping trends in Japan to tourism in South East Asia and India, as well as new fintech platforms and payment rails, David has a lot to share.   Link to Travel Trends 2024: https://www.mastercardservices.com/en/industries/travel/insights/travel-trends-2024-breaking-boundariesSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mdm Kay Kuok, Chair of the Yale-NUS Governing BoardMembers of the Yale-NUS Governing BoardProfessor Aaron Thean, Deputy President (Academic Affairs) and Provost of NUSProfessor Joanne Roberts, President of Yale-NUS CollegeFamilies, Yale-NUS community, and FriendsAnd dear graduates,Most of you were the class of 2020 in high school, your graduations disrupted by a once in a century pandemic. Today, as the Yale-NUS graduating class of 2024, your lives are mercifully not disrupted. It would however be tone-deaf to not recognize that many graduates in the Middle-East, Ukraine, or the US, won't be enjoying a commencement like yours this year.This is a heavy realisation as we traverse through life. Moments of celebrations and triumph for many are invariably juxtaposed with sorrow, loss, and sadness elsewhere. At your highest highs and lowest lows, know that there are others with a different luck of the draw.Graduates, recognising that life's peaks and valleys are inevitable can be liberating. It underscores the line “nothing lasts forever.” I think it also makes us less self-complacent, less territorial and possessive, more humble, and open to experiencing the next, the other. And perhaps, along those lines, more open to experiments. I want to explore the wisdom of experiments in the rest of this talk.Experiments can be scientific or social, public or personal. You can experiment with a business plan, a critical query, a new diet, a different workout, or just see if hearing someone out could give us an insight not feasible within our experiences.Consider hanging out with students from different majors an experiment. During my graduate school days, that very experiment led me to my life partner. Reach out to those from different religions, political persuasion, culture, or lifestyle, and see if their company and proximity make our lives richer and more joyous. If our mutual humanity can transcend our differences. These are experiments for the rest of your lives. And they will matter more as you delve into higher studies or jobs.If you're a scientist, your vocation is largely about testing hypothesis through experiments, but surely that's not where it ends.America is an experiment. Singapore is an experiment. Yale-NUS has been an experiment.Every new idea's worth is tested through experiments. Is it possible to send humans to the moon and back? Let's experiment, let's try. Is it possible to have a thriving, multicultural, multiracial society? Let's experiment. If it fails, try again.Some pursuits can follow the path of Thomas Edison, noisy and full of stumbles, but at the end, marked by glorious achievements. To paraphrase him, he never failed, he just successfully found the numerous ways that the experiment would not work.Some experiments can be spectacularly successful over a short period of time, thanks to luck, serendipity, or a stroke of genius. I wish you have those, but I also know that for the most you, that will not be the case. My hope is in fact that you leave this campus with the grit necessary to follow Edison's path, and don't shy away from your dreams at the first, second, or even third roadblock.Your exceptionally fortunate time at the Yale-NUS, in my view, has been an experiment of a lifetime. You could have gone to so many other places, but aren't you gratified that you came here? Reflecting on President Roberts's words, this place has hopefully instilled in you the patience, perseverance, and sense of community critically needed to make a difference.This beautiful campus, these dedicated and brilliant faculty, and these amazing facilities have nourished your minds over the past four years. That experiment of liberal arts in the heart of Singapore has been a resounding success. You made that happen. The legacy of this institution will never fade. So, let's embrace uncertainty, let's stand up against the fear of failure, let's move forward, secure in the conviction that your time here has provided you with the values and intellectual mettle to take on the world. We can write down an endless list of woes that afflict our planet; let them be your problems to solve. With your curiosity, empathy, and knowledge, let the experiments begin.   Congratulations Class of 2024!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We hear about the subject of the moment from Microsoft's Asia head of business development, Zia Zaman. We begin with the question if the world has been transformed in a comparable manner in the past year and a half as the smartphone and Appstore revolution achieved during 2007/08. Zia argues the transformation has been similar in influencing corporate strategy and productivity enhancement potential. We discuss the unparalleled cost and investment associated with operationalising and commercialising Large Language Models. Zia walks us through multiple stages of tech introduction, adoption, and value creation, with most still in the pipeline for GenAI. We talk about the compute needs and carbon footprint of running GenAI models, and the role of regulation in balancing business and public interests. Finally, Zia talks about the depth and breadth of the relationship between OpenAI and Microsoft. Fascinating insights.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mitchell Presnick, a visiting fellow of practice at the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies at Harvard University, joins Kopi Time to bring much needed pragmatism to the China-US discourse. Mitch, researching the future of US- China commercial relations in the post-engagement era, is no China apologist. But his decades of doing business in China have given him a realistic view on where engagement and symbiosis make sense. We discuss Mich's days building a business in China in the 1990s, the playbook he suggests to American businesses, and his take on US policy. Stressing that “de-risking does not mean decoupling,” Mitch wants the two nations to attain positive sum outcomes. May his views get amplified.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Recorded in Jakarta, Kopi Time delves into Indonesia's elections, domestic and foreign policy, investment environment, and economy with Kevin O'Rourke, Principle, PT Reformasi Information Services. Kevin's team has provided independent political risk consultancy for many years, and he demonstrates his deep insights in this far-reaching conversation. We begin with the recently concluded elections, and what one can expect from President Prabowo's administration, from balancing geopolitics to the nation's aspiration to climb to a much higher level of income, prosperity, and welfare. Kevin provides sober-eyed assessment on the strategies announced so far. We discuss Indonesia's democratic process, industrial policy, populist measures, fossil fuel industry, green transition potential, and the legacy of outgoing President Jokowi. Kevin's take on Indonesia is by no means negative, but certainly cautious and couched with concerns informed by his scrutiny of this country's ups and downs over two decades.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's episode subject is in response to popular demand. Whether at work or at home, concerns on cybersecurity are elevated to say the least. Nicolas Reys, Partner leading Control Risks' Digital Risks Americas and Global Threat Intelligence practices, begins by going the three kinds of cyberthreats out there—state sponsored, ransomware, and “hactivism.” We then talk about the impact of recent geopolitical developments on the cybersecurity environment. Singapore's population and firms continue to face cyberattacks, from scams to phishing, but Nic sees substantial awareness and policy guardrails available to mitigate risks here. We talk about frontier tech like GenAI and quantum computing, and their potential disrupting impact on cybersecurity. We end with Nic laying out the best practice corporate strategies to manage digital risks.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Martin Mühleisen, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, returns to Kopi Time to talk about the state of multilateralism. He sees the recent IMF meetings marked by modest progress in securing greater funding for development and climate change, but much more remains to be done to give developing nations their requisite voice in global bodies.  On issues such as supply chain resiliency and domestic market protection, nations around the world are undertaking a variety of interventions, which may be understandable given the pandemic shock and geopolitics. Yet, they create risks for inflation, and add layers of inefficiency and distortion. Martin weighs in on US fiscal, Japan's monetary policy, and Europe's difficulties with the war in Ukraine and China-US friction. We round up the discussion with how to keep multilateral institutions like the IMF maintain their relevance in this multipolar world.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We catch up in Washington DC with Dr. Alexis Crow, lead, Global Geopolitical Investing Practice, pwc. Recorded on the last day of the IMF-World Bank 2024 spring meetings, we go over the  key takeaways from our interactions with policy makers and analysts. From a mild upgrade in global growth forecasts to taking stock of the scarring of the pandemic, there was a sense of cautious optimism during the meetings. Ongoing geopolitical strife of course remained a shadow, and concerns were expressed on the impact of lingering high interest rates on various economies and markets. China-US tussle over economic overcapacity and industrial policy looks likely to intensify, although there has been a welcome rise in engagement between the world's two largest economies. We also discuss the latest deliberations on AI, climate change, and sticky inflation. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Henny Sender, after several decades of writing on international finance for the Finance Times and Wall Street Journal, presently runs Apsara Advisory, a New York-based consultancy. She joins Kopi Time to talk about her sense of the challenges facing the Chinese economy, especially the weakness in consumer sentiment. While recognising the wisdom behind self-reliance and trade openness, Henny flags several areas of concern, including property and stock market woes, as well as regulatory overhang. On Hong Kong, where she has lived for many years, Henny is blunt in her assessment. She sees substantial room available for the public sector to address affordable housing, an issue that is at the heart of the city's competitiveness. On India, Henny sees a welcome rise in aspiration and optimism. She would however like to see more efforts to scale up manufacturing, address climate risks, and reduce protectionism for local industries.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Angela Mancini, Partner and Head of the Geopolitical Risk Analysis practice for Asia Pacific at Control Risks, returns to Kopi Time after four years. The issues haven't changed that much in the interim—we talk about Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore's elections and economic prospects, state of China-US friction in the context of business risks, and the domestic dynamics at play in the US. Angela provides astute insights and some prognostications as we cover an extensive ground, including the likely outcome of the US Presidential race. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bert Hofman, adjunct Professor at the East Asian Institute at National University of Singapore, returns to Kopi Time to comment on the National People's Congress of China and the direction of policy in the coming years. We also talk about the property sector crisis, ways to revive business and consumer confidence, deflation risks, green transition, trade and tech war, and industrial policy. Bert also has interesting insights on the preference of the Chinese leadership in dealing with a Biden or Trump presidency. Worth a listen. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We welcome back Munib Madni, CEO of Singapore-based Panarchy Partners, a fund management company with responsible investing at its core. In this chat, Munib talks about latest developments and trends in the world of climate impact investing, while pointing out a gap in the current scene. Munib sees many listed equity companies setting laudable goals to reduce emission, but lacking the “how" about achieving those goals. This is where the newly established Gigaton Coalition comes in. It is an investor-investee led expert management platform for decarbonization solutions. As the name suggests, it aims to deliver at least 1 gigaton of cumulus emissions savings over the next decade from publicly listed companies in Asia Pacific. We discuss how the coalition would work, what would motivate institutional investors and companies to join it, and where Munib sees the initiative standing at the end of 2025. This is real work for real change. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We explore the present state of digital payments, their impact and potential, and tech-enabled investment platforms with Caeser Sengupta, CEO and co-founder of Arta Finance. Previously, Caeser spent a number of years at Google as VP & GM of Payments & the Next Billion Users initiative. In this podcast, we begin by discussing the economic and social welfare benefits derived from the digital payments revolution of the past decade. Caeser walks us through the fundamental changes in the way business and commerce are conducted in Brazil, China, India, and elsewhere, thanks to the development in mobile payments and near-instantaneous settlements. We talk about the broader ecosystem, including the potential of super apps, safety/security, role of regulators, central bank digital money, and of course, crypto/blockchain. We then shift to Caeser's ongoing foray into creating a platform for wealth management, with enhanced customer experience and capabilities. The intersection of digital literacy and financial literacy has still plenty of room for disruption and value creation.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, a Singapore-based provider of intelligence on energy markets, returns to Kopi Time. She was with us in the early days of the podcast, when WTI futures was in negative territory, and then returned around the time of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Today, again, energy markets have no shortage of drama. Vandana begins by addressing various scenarios over the brewing tensions in the Red Sea, especially for shipping and oil price risk premium. She also details the perverse dynamics around Russia's energy supplies and various unintended consequences. Beyond geopolitics, she looks at the rather underwhelming supply-demand fundamentals characterising energy markets. We then talk about the future of OPEC+, state of US Shale sector, and the medium term demand for fossil fuels against green transition. Vanda offers an astute blend of industry insights and the complex realities in place. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We do a US market wrap-up for 2023 and outlook for 2024 with our favourite strategist, Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar. No stranger to Kopi Time, Sri is blunt and prescient in his views across asset classes, fiscal and monetary policies, politics, economic growth, and inflation. We discuss the various prevalent and potential sources of market volatility, direction of the US Fed and treasury, path for inflation, rate cuts, and eventual QE next year, and the outlook for credit markets. Sri worries about the health of the US bank and nonbank financial system as the economy slows. He is also quite clear about the distinction the markets make about US assets and US policy. In most countries, outlook for one determines the outlook for the other. But the US remains blessed with certain superpower and mega-market size privileges that allow it to avoid some of these issues, at least in the near term.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

South Asia has pockets of strong growth (Bangladesh and India), pockets of balance of payments difficulties (Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka), and an across the board underwhelming foreign investment picture. Dr. Franziska Ohnsorge, South Asia Chief Economist of the World Bank, ties these multiple threads from her vantage point. We discuss risks and manifestations of currency crisis in parts of South Asia and the assorted fiscal stress points. The region remains characterised by remittance from the diaspora, which tends to create an element of overheating in consumption. The region also collects very low taxes, without which the capacity of spend on growth critical areas remains limited. The rules around fiscal responsibility are also weak by international comparison. We then talk about two matters related to energy transition in South Asia. First is a study on ways to improve firm level productivity through introduction of energy saving practices, and the second is one on the encouraging returns from green jobs. We conclude by talking about the need for the region to become more trade friendly; there is no better way to have a competitive, productive, and upward trending economy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is a thoughtful discussion on maximising a company or economy's growth potential while navigating geopolitical constraints. Charles Ormiston digs deep on Asia in this podcast. Charles, chair of the Angsana Council, a Singapore-based think tank focused on the growth potential of Southeast Asia, and former head of Bain Southeast Asia, argues that China/UK rivalry could force both nations to get out of their comfort zones and become more self-reliant, which in turn could help the rest of the world. Charles is not rosy-eyed about the current state of affairs, but his key insight on China's progress is that it is the result of intense competition between provinces and businesses, fuelling innovation. At a broader level, he sees great power rivalry forcing further innovation on both sides. The conversation then veers toward China's seismic push toward green transition and its various positive spillovers to the region. Charles walks us through Vietnam, the Philippines, and Singapore, offering cogent insights on their very different development models and prospects. We need to have Charles back for the rest of Southeast Asia.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This couple is walking the talk on marine sustainability. Dirk Eichelberger is the CEO of Singapore Aquaculture Technologies; in other words, he runs a fish farm right here in Singapore. Lelya Eichelberger is launching Alghemy, a skincare product range that offers a proprietary ingredient while emphasizing clean, green, and blue beauty. We talk about the challenges and rewards of their entrepreneurial journeys, and how their goals and Singapore's imperatives converge. Dirk walks us through the financial, ethical, and ESG factors that drive his fish farm, while Lelya talks about health-related scientific advances with sustainability considerations at the core. As Dirk points out, from securing partnership with the government and other interested parties, to scaling up, as well as commercialising the knowhow through a franchise model, there are many things one can do to increase the production and distribution of sustainable products. The roadmap is there.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Global central bank heads and finance ministers gathered over the past week in Marrakech, Morocco for the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group. The meetings' overarching theme was an uneven global recovery from a multitude of shocks, ranging from pandemic to wars, prices to interest rates. There was also a cautiously constructive view that both the public sector and markets have proven to be more agile than feared to deal with frequently occurring shocks.  There was acceptance that a multitude of shocks have be confronted simultaneously. Post-pandemic scarring, wars, inflation, interest rate spikes, climate change, all need to be dealt with agility. Global resource base and tools to deal with polycrisis are being expanded. Climate change related support measures are still inadequate. Between-and-within country income gaps are widening due to the shocks and varying policy responses. Asia is slowing, but still making up about two-thirds of global growth. arts of Asia may benefit from geoeconomic fragmentation, but it's a net loss for the world.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an atypical episode—the first time in Kopi Time we discuss the intersection of faith and economics. Dr. Tony Annett, a Visiting Scholar at the Center for Sustainable Development, Columbia University, and author of “Cathonomics: How Catholic Tradition Can Create a More Just Economy,” insists on moral principles as foundations of economics and finance. In this fascinating conversation, we explore the roots of our modern values and principles, going to back old scriptures and subsequent faith-based approaches. Dr. Annett questions the narrow rational actor approach of neoclassical economics, arguing that without concerns for a common good and social responsibility, solutions to inequality, climate change, and monopolistic practices will remain unattainable. Over the past couple of centuries, technological progress and organisational developments have led to astonishing material prosperity, but have we achieved meaningful progress? The call remains for a more sustainable and inclusive world; whether one has faith or not, that imperative is critical.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This podcast will be an indispensable resource for those have not read Chip War by Chris Miller, Professor at Tufts University. Chris explains, both in his award-winning book and in this conversation, the central role played by computer chips in today's economy, society, and military. More critically, he points out various single nodes of vulnerability in the production process of these immensely complex products. Naturally, the conversation then veers toward China's attempts to reach self-sufficiency in advanced tech, the myriad of sanctions getting in the way, and the various unexpected knock-on effects. Those who have read Chip War already will also find a lot in this podcast, as we discuss the latest products by Huawei, use of military tech in the Ukraine war, how Russia is managing its tech stack despite sanctions, and the state of advanced tech manufacturing the East Asia. Many don't know that Chris's core expertise includes Soviet history and modern Russia, so we conclude with his prognosis of the war in Ukraine and the path toward resolution. This was a gem of a chat.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kishore Mahbubani, Distinguished Fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore, returns to Kopi Time to give his take on China-US relationship, the war in Ukraine and its many facets, and where Asean and India stand in all this. The ever erudite former career diplomat pulls no punches, pointing out poor national strategies, short-term oriented decision making, and hypocrisy on foreign and economic policy across industrialized economies.  He worries about US presidential elections next year, although he sees little course correction on US policy toward China, regardless of the outcome. The conflict in Ukraine, however, could be profoundly affected by the US election outcomes. Mr Mahbubani also weighs in on China's geo-strategic response so far, room for cooperation on climate change, the expansion of Brics, and the outlook for Aaean.  We end with a a prognosis on Singapore. The transcript of this chat will be worth saving. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Aurobindo Ghosh, Assistant Professor of Finance at the Lee Kong Chian School of Business, Singapore Management University, joins Kopi Time to talk about his longstanding research on inflation expectations and cost of living. He explains the decade-plus work,  done in conjunction with the Monetary Authority of Singapore and DBS Bank, to gauge inflation expectations among Singapore's residents. Over the long term, survey results have held steady, reflecting well anchored inflation expectations, but they have been volatile in recent years, in line with global developments. How is the survey conducted; what methodological challenges do they throw up; what are the key insights from all these years' of surveys; is there a difference between inflation expectations and cost of living perceptions? What are the policy implications? Prof Ghosh addresses all this and more on this topic of the moment.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Eswar Prasad, Tolani Senior Professor of Trade Policy at Cornell University, returns to Kopi Time to talk about the USD, China, cryptos, and CBDCs. We go over the state of the global financial system, the legacy of USD weaponisation, innovation in fintech, the state of cryptos, the potential of central bank digital currencies. Eswar's book, The Future of Money: How the Digital Revolution is Transforming Currencies and Finance, offers a great sweep of the ongoing revolution in money and finance. This podcast is a teaser for his deep work.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Santiago Millán, Macro Strategist at Wellington Management, one of the largest asset managers in the world, joins Kopi Time to talk about China. Whether it is the macro outlook, space for further stimulus, policy stance, state of financial markets, regulatory framework, great power rivalry, tech war, green transition, or the overall investment thesis on the country, Santiago has nuanced insights to offer. His key point is to appreciate the complexities of a large, consequential, and rapidly evolving economy and society like China. Broad-brushed analysis almost always gets it wrong; we need to think deeply when it comes to China's medium term direction, especially with respect to its undeniable role in global trade, technology, and movement of capital.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Helge Muenkel, Chief Sustainability Officer at DBS, responsible for developing the bank's overarching sustainability framework, joins Kopi Time. We begin by talking about current state of climate finance, the magnitude of funding needed to carry out meaningful green transition, and the various source of funding in the pipeline. Helge walks us through the key pillars of climate finance, including bonds, blended finance, grants, and carbon credits. We talk about the thorny issue of just transition, along with the role of governments and corporates in this journey. We then dive into banks' role in coal phase-out, an enormously complex issue. We end by considering the encouraging climate mitigation and finance related developments in the US, Europe, China, and Singapore.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mustafa Chowdhury, who has held senior positions at Voya Investments, Deutsche Bank, Bear Stearns and Freddie Mac, brings his deep fixed income expertise to Kopi Time. We start with his takeaways from the debt ceiling drama, which Mustafa argues left President Biden the winner. He however remains unconvinced that a meaningful debt consolidation is likely in the coming years, given the ballooning expenditure needs ahead. He then offers his insights on the information content embedded in the deeply inverted yield curve, weighing on recession probability versus fixed income strategy of institutional investors. Mustafa believes that market pricing on inflation expectations is too sanguine, and a better gauge is consumer survey based expectation measures. Building on that, he expects sticky inflation and a “higher for longer” narrative for interest rates. Having said that, he is not uniformly bearish US fixed income, pointing out pockets of value in various products and strategies. Mustafa also weighs in on financial stability, systemwide liquidity, relative value, and portfolio allocation. Can't-miss insights.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This series began right before the 2020 global pandemic, and at that time the idea was to record chats with thinkers I meet during my travels. I really doubt if I'd have a hundred episodes under that model of operation. But once the pandemic broke out, remote recording with guests all over the world became acceptable, and away we went. Now 100 episodes is a lot, and there have some really memorable ones. We have covered our bread and butter, global macro and markets, in 41 episodes, but we have gone way beyond that as well. Given the times we live in, we have had a dozen episodes on geopolitics, eight on tech and fintech, and a dozen on climate change, an issue close to my heart. Beyond that, we have covered banking, energy, metals, crypto, financial inclusion, health, science and innovation, gender, and wealth management. Quite the breadth, never a dull moment! In this episode, we review the top-10 most downloaded and viewed episodes on Kopi Time.  The number 1 in this ranking, in fact, has over 175k views and nearly 900 comments on youtube! Thanks to our listeners for their support and kind encouragement for this series.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.