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Lebih dari 150 tahun yang lalu Tuhan mencamkan kepada Ellen G. White bahwa kopi dan teh secara artifisial merangsang sistem dan kemudian menyebabkan depresi.
For this podcast, it’s just yours truly. With 2H25 in mind, I go over trade wars, Middle East tension, and the US economy. Then I take a bunch of questions from clients and colleagues. We go over asset allocation, US debt outlook, attractiveness of Asian sovereign bonds, and a few non-market questions. Enjoy!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
"Alle som bor på jorden, skal tilbe ham, de som ikke har navnene sine skrevet i Livets bok hos Lammet som ble slaktet fra verdens grunnleggelse." (Åp. 13, 8)Hele dette kapittelet i Åpenbaringen handler om en antikristelig kopi av Gud og Hans opplegg. Vi finner treenigheten som samspiller, døden og oppstandelsen, merket på hånd og panne, ild fra himmelen, lammet og løva, tilbedelsen - alt er tatt i fra Guds historie og plan. Men Gud er byttet ut med noe eller noen som framstår som uskyldig og prisverdig, men som i sitt vesen er dyrisk: brutalt, grådig og spottende.Enten dyrene i disse bildene skal tolkes som personer eller stater eller noe annet, så virker det å være en kombinasjon av politisk og åndelig makt. Slike styrer har vært, og vi har eksempler på det også i dag, men her beskrives det som noe mer omfattende og universelt enn noen gang. Selv nå vil det finnes troende, de som har navnet sitt i Livets bok. De trenger tålmodighet og tro for å holde ut, står det (v. 10). Men i alt er Herren trofast, Han vil hjelpe sine (1.Tess. 5, 23-24, 2. Tess. 3, 3). Han er seierherren som sier: "Frykt ikke!" (Åp. 1, 17-18).Ja, vi skal være klar over at der er en kopi av Gud og Hans opplegg. La ikke disse ordene skape frykt hos deg, men la de bare være som en påminnelse om dette at det finnes noen som prøver å erstatte Gud og ta Guds plass, uten at dét skal få fokuset vårt. Vi skal få vende fokuset mot nettopp Gud og Hans plan og Hans gode vilje, Sannheten, Veien og Livet, alt det som Jesus er!Skrevet og lest av Eli Fuglestad for Norea Håpets Kvinner.
We dive into the presently shifting capital flow dynamic with David Skilling, Founding Director, Landfall Strategy Group. David’s firm provides insights on global economic, geopolitical, and policy developments to firms, investors, and governments, so we begin by getting a sense of the mood of his clients. We then discuss if the ongoing geoeconomic instability is creating room for Europe and Asia to come closer, even with the China-US complications in place. We then delve into his recent publication, Capital Wars, in which he argues that efforts to rebalance global trade flows will contribute to structural change in global capital flows. We go region by region, from the US to Europe, UK to Japan, and then ending with South-East Asia, to take stock of the likely impact of greater competition for capital at the firm and national levels.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Rozmawiamy, czyli kultura i filozofia w Teologii Politycznej
Jak naprawdę wyglądał XVII wiek, stulecie wojen, srebrny wiek Rzeczypospolitej, odmalowany w fascynujący sposób na kartach „Trylogii” Henryka Sienkiewicza i w ekranizacjach jego powieści? Najpełniej możemy to odkryć dzięki pamiętnikarstwu, które pozwala nam zajrzeć pod powierzchnię barwnej narracji znanej z „Potopu” czy „Pana Wołodyjowskiego”.Autentyczne diariusze i pamiętniki to cenne źródła – umożliwiają wgląd w świat przekonań, emocji i wyobrażeń naszych przodków, pozwalając lepiej zrozumieć ich mentalność, wartości i tryb życia. Jan Chryzostom Pasek, Jan Antoni Chrapowicki i wielu innych rejestrowali ważne wydarzenia polityczne, ale także to, co działo się w domach i parafiach, na sejmach, sejmikach czy w czasie wojen.___________Historia to nie tylko przytłaczający datami i nazwiskami gąszcz dawnych wydarzeń, badanie „niegdysiejszych śniegów”, które znuży nawet najwytrwalszych fascynatów przeszłości, czy przestrzeń manipulowania faktami dla doraźnych celów. To też próba zrozumienia, jak rodziły się idee, które formują dzisiejszy świat, jak kształtowały się granice – nie tylko te geograficzne, ale duchowe czy mentalne, jak ludzie w różnych epokach myśleli o relacji jednostki, wspólnoty i Boga. Jakie wydarzenia, postaci, dzieła – zmieniały sposób postrzegania władzy, religii czy wojny? W podcaście „Dialogi epok” wybierzemy się na poszukiwania momentów przełomu w dziejach Europy i Polski, przyjrzymy się ciągłości i przeobrażeniom idei o ponadepokowym znaczeniu, miejscu religii w porządku politycznym i kulturowym. Jak cesarz Konstantyn zmienił historię chrześcijaństwa i imperium rzymskiego? Na czym polegało wielkie starcie idei – uniwersalizmu i suwerenności – uosabianych przez średniowiecznych papieży, cesarzy i królów? Z jakich źródeł możemy poznać XVII wiek, stulecie wojen, srebrny wiek Rzeczypospolitej, odmalowany w fascynujący sposób na kartach Trylogii Henryka Sienkiewicza i w ekranizacjach jego powieści? Tym tematom już w pierwszych odcinkach Dialogów epok Adam Talarowski przyjrzy się z zaproszonymi gośćmi, wybitnymi specjalistami w swych dziedzinach.Podobają Ci się podcasty Teologii Politycznej? Serdecznie zachęcamy do wsparcia naszych nagrań: https://teologiapolityczna.pl/podcasty2025
This is a recording from the DBS Asia Insights Conference 2025, held in Jakarta on May 21. I had the privilege of discussing Indonesia’s near and medium term outlook with Chatib Basri, former finance minister. In this conversation, Mr. Basri talks about Indonesia’s strategy during a time of geoeconomic fragmentation, the ability of the economy to absorb shocks, what it would take to reach 8% growth, the challenges to education, health, and infrastructure, sectoral development strategies in place, and the future of jobs amid tech disruption. An erudite speaker, Mr. Basri’s insights are invaluable to those following South East Asia’s most populous economy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Prof Danny Quah, Dean of LKY School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, returns to Kopi Time to share his insights on the dangers and opportunities stemming from the changing world order. We go over two of his recent pieces; first, an open letter to the US president (penned before the US elections last November, and second, a research paper on the correlation between global trade and geopolitics. Prof Quah dissects the great power rivalry through (i) the perception of win-win versus zero sum and (ii) a tendency to attribute domestic welfare shortfalls (blue collar jobs, health, education, safety) to external factors (trade, immigration, defence spending). He then points out that trade liberalisation and the politics of global engagement have gone hand in hand on the way up (say, from the 1960s to 2010) and down (the past decade and a half). We then discuss a key point—the US shying away from globalisation or green transition does not doom those dynamics. There is a huge world of trade and GDP outside the US. The world is not being swayed; rules and agreements among the rest are proceeding, with the window left open for the US to return one day. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Max Verstappen heeft op formidabele wijze de Grand Prix van Emilia-Romagna gewonnen. De Nederlander prijkte in de F1-uitslag bovenaan het lijstje, nadat hij door een geweldige start voorbij ging aan Oscar Piastri en vervolgens ijzersterk naar de overwinning reed. Lando Norris werd tweede in Imola, gevolgd door zijn teamgenoot op de derde plek. Ferrari herpakte zich na de teleurstellende kwalificatie van gisteren en scoorde belangrijke punten voor eigen publiek.
Indonesia menjadi negara produsen kopi pertama yang menyelenggarakan pameran kopi terbesar di dunia yang digelar oleh Specialty Coffee Association.
V Chlumci nad Cidlinou v Královéhradeckém kraji byste na jedné rodinné zahradě našli unikátní svět na kolejích. Na pozemku rodiny Špecingerových v Roosveltově ulici, kde roste i jehličnatý les, můžete obdivovat hned dvě kolejiště. Malou Albulu, věrnou kopii skutečné alpské úzkorozchodné železnice ve Švýcarsku, a potom Drážku, malodráhu o rozchodu 250 mm. Tou se dokonce můžete i svézt.
V Chlumci nad Cidlinou v Královéhradeckém kraji byste na jedné rodinné zahradě našli unikátní svět na kolejích. Na pozemku rodiny Špecingerových v Roosveltově ulici, kde roste i jehličnatý les, můžete obdivovat hned dvě kolejiště. Malou Albulu, věrnou kopii skutečné alpské úzkorozchodné železnice ve Švýcarsku, a potom Drážku, malodráhu o rozchodu 250 mm. Tou se dokonce můžete i svézt.
V Chlumci nad Cidlinou v Královéhradeckém kraji byste na jedné rodinné zahradě našli unikátní svět na kolejích. Na pozemku rodiny Špecingerových v Roosveltově ulici, kde roste i jehličnatý les, můžete obdivovat hned dvě kolejiště. Malou Albulu, věrnou kopii skutečné alpské úzkorozchodné železnice ve Švýcarsku, a potom Drážku, malodráhu o rozchodu 250 mm. Tou se dokonce můžete i svézt.
V Chlumci nad Cidlinou v Královéhradeckém kraji byste na jedné rodinné zahradě našli unikátní svět na kolejích. Na pozemku rodiny Špecingerových v Roosveltově ulici, kde roste i jehličnatý les, můžete obdivovat hned dvě kolejiště. Malou Albulu, věrnou kopii skutečné alpské úzkorozchodné železnice ve Švýcarsku, a potom Drážku, malodráhu o rozchodu 250 mm. Tou se dokonce můžete i svézt.
V Chlumci nad Cidlinou v Královéhradeckém kraji byste na jedné rodinné zahradě našli unikátní svět na kolejích. Na pozemku rodiny Špecingerových v Roosveltově ulici, kde roste i jehličnatý les, můžete obdivovat hned dvě kolejiště. Malou Albulu, věrnou kopii skutečné alpské úzkorozchodné železnice ve Švýcarsku, a potom Drážku, malodráhu o rozchodu 250 mm. Tou se dokonce můžete i svézt.
V Chlumci nad Cidlinou v Královéhradeckém kraji byste na jedné rodinné zahradě našli unikátní svět na kolejích. Na pozemku rodiny Špecingerových v Roosveltově ulici, kde roste i jehličnatý les, můžete obdivovat hned dvě kolejiště. Malou Albulu, věrnou kopii skutečné alpské úzkorozchodné železnice ve Švýcarsku, a potom Drážku, malodráhu o rozchodu 250 mm. Tou se dokonce můžete i svézt.
V Chlumci nad Cidlinou v Královéhradeckém kraji byste na jedné rodinné zahradě našli unikátní svět na kolejích. Na pozemku rodiny Špecingerových v Roosveltově ulici, kde roste i jehličnatý les, můžete obdivovat hned dvě kolejiště. Malou Albulu, věrnou kopii skutečné alpské úzkorozchodné železnice ve Švýcarsku, a potom Drážku, malodráhu o rozchodu 250 mm. Tou se dokonce můžete i svézt.
V Chlumci nad Cidlinou v Královéhradeckém kraji byste na jedné rodinné zahradě našli unikátní svět na kolejích. Na pozemku rodiny Špecingerových v Roosveltově ulici, kde roste i jehličnatý les, můžete obdivovat hned dvě kolejiště. Malou Albulu, věrnou kopii skutečné alpské úzkorozchodné železnice ve Švýcarsku, a potom Drážku, malodráhu o rozchodu 250 mm. Tou se dokonce můžete i svézt.
V Chlumci nad Cidlinou v Královéhradeckém kraji byste na jedné rodinné zahradě našli unikátní svět na kolejích. Na pozemku rodiny Špecingerových v Roosveltově ulici, kde roste i jehličnatý les, můžete obdivovat hned dvě kolejiště. Malou Albulu, věrnou kopii skutečné alpské úzkorozchodné železnice ve Švýcarsku, a potom Drážku, malodráhu o rozchodu 250 mm. Tou se dokonce můžete i svézt.Všechny díly podcastu Výlety můžete pohodlně poslouchat v mobilní aplikaci mujRozhlas pro Android a iOS nebo na webu mujRozhlas.cz.
V Chlumci nad Cidlinou v Královéhradeckém kraji byste na jedné rodinné zahradě našli unikátní svět na kolejích. Na pozemku rodiny Špecingerových v Roosveltově ulici, kde roste i jehličnatý les, můžete obdivovat hned dvě kolejiště. Malou Albulu, věrnou kopii skutečné alpské úzkorozchodné železnice ve Švýcarsku, a potom Drážku, malodráhu o rozchodu 250 mm. Tou se dokonce můžete i svézt.
V Chlumci nad Cidlinou v Královéhradeckém kraji byste na jedné rodinné zahradě našli unikátní svět na kolejích. Na pozemku rodiny Špecingerových v Roosveltově ulici, kde roste i jehličnatý les, můžete obdivovat hned dvě kolejiště. Malou Albulu, věrnou kopii skutečné alpské úzkorozchodné železnice ve Švýcarsku, a potom Drážku, malodráhu o rozchodu 250 mm. Tou se dokonce můžete i svézt.
V Chlumci nad Cidlinou v Královéhradeckém kraji byste na jedné rodinné zahradě našli unikátní svět na kolejích. Na pozemku rodiny Špecingerových v Roosveltově ulici, kde roste i jehličnatý les, můžete obdivovat hned dvě kolejiště. Malou Albulu, věrnou kopii skutečné alpské úzkorozchodné železnice ve Švýcarsku, a potom Drážku, malodráhu o rozchodu 250 mm. Tou se dokonce můžete i svézt.
Thanks for checking out another episode of RAC FM! Today the gang welcomes KopiMoney to the studio. You'll hear from Robo, Bbandz, Red_eyed_Bear, and more! Recorded on May 12th 2025. RAC FM is powered by TerraSpaces. Thank you to everyone in the community who supports TerraSpaces.
Ini oleh-oleh dari jalan-jalan di Jepang. Sayang gak banyak beli oleh-oleh kopi Jepangnya
Episode kali ini, kita kedatangan Edo dari Hungry Bird Coffee Roaster—coffee shop yang dikenal banyak orang sebagai House of the Champion. Di sini kita akan ngobrolin soal dunia kopi, perjalanan Hungry Bird membangun reputasinya di industri, serta pandangan Edo tentang perkembangan budaya ngopi di Bali. Tonton video selengkapnya di #RayJansonRadioOTP #20 LIKA-LIKU KOPI DI BALI WITH EDO | ONTHEPASEnjoy the show!Instagram:Edo: www.instagram.com/madeincangguDON'T FORGET TO LIKE AND SUBSCRIBE !On The Pas is available on:Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2lEDF01Apple Podcast: https://apple.co/2nhtizqGoogle Podcast: https://bit.ly/2laege8iAnchor App: https://anchor.fm/ray-janson-radioInstagran: https://www.instagram.com/onthepasbali/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onthepasLet's talk some more:https://www.instagram.com/renaldykhttps://www.instagram.com/backdraft_projecthttps://www.instagram.com/mariojreynaldi#OnThePasPodcast #BaliPodcast #RayJansonRadio #FnBPodcast #PodcastAfterService
Media Partner - Kopi sik luh, pameran yang tak sekedar membahas kopi sebagai bahan pembuka obrolan. Namun lebih dalam lagi membahas peran perempuan dalam tatanan sosial dan budaya. Pameran duo antara Ediw dan Isur juga adalah bentuk kolaborasi antara 2 individu antar generasi. Mendobrak spekulasi-spekulasi yang terbentuk dalam strata kesenian. Di bagian ini, kedua perupa membahas tentang karya-karya yang dipamerkan, diskursus kekinian yang relevan dengan pameran ini dan harapan-harapan ke depan. Apa saja itu? Yuk, didengerin!
Media Partner - “Kopi Sik Luh”, pameran yang tak sekedar membahas kopi sebagai bahan pembuka obrolan. Namun lebih dalam lagi membahas peran perempuan dalam tatanan sosial dan budaya. Pameran duo antara Ediw dan Isur juga adalah bentuk kolaborasi antara 2 individu antar generasi. Mendobrak spekulasi-spekulasi yang terbentuk dalam strata kesenian. Di Bagian ini kita berkesempatan mendengar background dari masing-masing perupa serta tentang judul dari pameran ini. Apa saja itu? Yuk, didengerin!
Dr. Krishna Srinivasan, IMF’s Director of the Asia and Pacific Department, takes us on a journey of Asia, which is facing a major challenge to its export-led growth model. With geoeconomic fragmentation intensifying, how do nations strike a balance between trade promotion and domestic demand support? From China to India, South Korea to Vietnam, what is the outlook for growth, interest rate, and exchange rate, and what are the IMF’s fiscal, monetary, and structural policy prescriptions? What are the risk scenarios, given the heightened levels of uncertainty? What about the usage of the US dollar and financial stability risks? Krishna offers valuable insights on these questions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Liselotte, 8 Jahre, möchte wissen: „WARUM gibt es Lügen?“ Schon seit sie klein ist, hört sie: „Lügen darf man nicht!“ Und trotzdem weiß sie, dass Kinder und Erwachsene immer wieder Lügen erzählen … Gemeinsam mit ihren Freunden Liv und Pepe beobachten Kopi, Pieps und Mira eine LÜGENGESCHICHTE auf einer Baustelle. Dabei finden sie heraus, dass hinter JEDER LÜGE ein GRUND steckt – und warum es sich trotzdem lohnt, die WAHRHEIT zu sagen!
Sedikit cerita tentang perkopian pagi ini; Kopi Taneuh Sunda, Glic, JavaHalu Coffee, Illy, dan Tim Hortons.#coffee #kopi
“Merayakan Hal Sederhana” adalah ruang kecil di Bulan dan Kopi tempat aku berbagi potongan dari jurnal pagiku.Cerita-cerita tentang ragu, syukur, pertumbuhan, dan momen-momen sederhana yang sering terlewat.Lewat tulisan-tulisan ini, aku ingin mengajakmu untuk bersama-sama menemukan keindahan di dalam hal-hal kecil yang membentuk perjalanan kita.
Alicia Gregory, Managing Director at Blue Owl, an alternative asset manager, joins Kopi Time to walk us through private equity, a USD12trln asset class. Drawing on her extensive experience as a PE investor, Alicia begins by going over the genesis of the industry. We then go through a number of topics, including the structure of private equity investments, key investment strategies, PE’s track record relative to public equity markets, and the state of the PE cycle and the outlook for 2025. We also cover the PE secondary market, connection between private debt and private equity, PE’s foray into retail, and possible risks in PE investment. A deep dive indeed.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Kopi Time hits 5 years and 150 episodes! We celebrate the milestone with Piyush Gupta, outgoing CEO of DBS Bank Ltd. Piyush brings his remarkable intellectual breadth in this conversation, in which we touch upon various aspects of the present and future of banking. We begin by discussing how banks in Asia and the West have evolved since the 2008/09 global financial crisis, and their track record in embracing digital banking, financial inclusion, risk management, and relationship with regulators. Piyush then weighs in on conventional banks versus pure-play digital banks. The conversation moves on to the digital asset ecosystem and what that means for both banks and central banks going forward. We also talk about cyber security and banks’ role in green transition. We conclude with Piyush’s take on the promise and challenge of AI, particularly LLMs. What makes him hopeful? It’s the capacity of humanity to absorb all sorts of transformations and cataclysms, and yet move forward. This is not goodbye; we will have Piyush back.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
We welcome a foremost expert on the science of aging, lifespan, and healthspan, Professor Brian Kennedy, Distinguished Professor of Biochemistry and Physiology, National University of Singapore. In this fascinating conversation, we begin by understanding senescence, the process of functional decay of organisms. Prof Kennedy explores aging at physical and cognitive levels, and its linkage with genetics, diet, and exercise. We then delve into the scientific work going with several molecules that appear to be promising in slowing cell decay, including alpha keto-glutarate, spermidine, and the in-vouge NAD. Prof Kennedy is a keen proponent of data-driven personalised approach to medicine, seeing a great deal of promise in the application of gene therapy, stem cell therapy, and artificial intelligence. At the end, I ask him if aging is a disease that can be cured; let’s just say he has an intriguing response!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In this episode of The Big Success Podcast, Coby Sugars interviews her father, world-renowned entrepreneur and business coach Brad Sugars, about passing on a success mindset to the next generation. They explore the importance of financial literacy, fostering confidence, and instilling ambition with humility. Brad shares insights on parenting strategies that help children develop resilience, set meaningful goals, and embrace failure as part of success. They also discuss the significance of gratitude, emotional intelligence, and shaping a strong personal philosophy from an early age.About Coby Sugars:Coby Sugars is an inquisitive and driven young entrepreneur passionate about personal growth, financial literacy, and success mindset. As the daughter of business coach Brad Sugars, she has been immersed in the principles of wealth-building, leadership, and personal development from a young age. With a strong foundation in entrepreneurship, Kopi brings a fresh perspective on goal-setting, financial independence, and continuous learning, inspiring her peers to take ownership of their futures.Attributes:a href="https://www.vecteezy.com/free-videos/business"Business Stock Videos by Vecteezy/aa href="https://www.vecteezy.com/free-videos/money"Money Stock Videos by Vecteezy/aa href="https://www.vecteezy.com/free-videos/data"Data Stock Videos by Vecteezy/aAbout Brad SugarsInternationally known as one of the most influential entrepreneurs, Brad Sugars is a bestselling author, keynote speaker, and the #1 business coach in the world. Over the course of his 30-year career as an entrepreneur, Brad has become the CEO of 9+ companies and is the owner of the multimillion-dollar franchise ActionCOACH®. As a husband and father of five, Brad is equally as passionate about his family as he is about business. That's why, Brad is a strong advocate for building a business that works without you – so you can spend more time doing what really matters to you. Over the years of starting, scaling and selling many businesses, Brad has earned his fair share of scars. Being an entrepreneur is not an easy road. But if you can learn from those who have gone before you, it becomes a lot easier than going at it alone.Please click here to learn more about Brad Sugars: https://bradsugars.com/Learn the Fundamentals of Success for free:The Big Success Starter: https://results.bradsugars.com/thebigsuccess-starter
We dive into the rapidly growing world of private credit. Meghan Neenan, managing director and the North America head of Non-Bank Financial Institutions at FitchRatings, walks us through the sector’s genesis, scale, depth, structure, participants, transparency of reporting, and regulatory dimension. What are the vulnerabilities around the economic cycle? Are there financial stability risks? What are the newest trends, from the spread of retail offerings to blended structures? Is this an inflection moment for private credit, as it jumps toward ubiquity? Meghan is clearly constructive.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Kali ini kita kedatangan sosok senior di industri kopi, yaitu Hendri Kurniawan. Ia merupakan World Coffee Certified Judge. Kita akan membahas perjuangan dia membangun industri kopi Indonesia sampai menjadi jembatan bagi para juara kompetisi kopi ke panggung dunia. Tonton video selengkapnya di #RayJansonRadio#485 INI ORANG PALING BERJASA DI DUNIA KOPI INDONESIA! WITH HENDRI KURNIAWAN | RAY JANSON RADIOEnjoy the show!Instagram:Hendri Kurniawan: www.instagram.com/thephatuncleDON'T FORGET TO LIKE AND SUBSCRIBE !Ray Janson Radio is available on:Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2lEDF01Apple Podcast: https://apple.co/2nhtizqGoogle Podcast: https://bit.ly/2laege8iAnchor App: https://anchor.fm/ray-janson-radioTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@rayjansonradioLet's talk some more:https://www.instagram.com/rayjanson#RayJansonRadio #FnBPodcast #Indonesia #coffeepodcast
We welcome back to Kopi Time Kishore Mahbubani, distinguished diplomat, academic, and writer on geopolitics. Our conversation, recorded in Mumbai, kicks off with India’s promise and challenges vis-à-vis the US and China, with the former turning increasingly protectionist and latter facing a myriad of domestic and external challenges. Mahbubani sees no room for emotion in geopolitics, expecting to see India follow its pragmatic instincts to pursue industrialisation with capital and technology from both superpowers. We then discuss Trump 2.0, the future of multilateralism, and Asia’s place in the great power rivalry. Always sharp and insightful.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
We welcome back Dr. Deborah Elms, Head of Trade Policy at Heinrich Foundation, Singapore, for a timely discussion on intensifying trade wars. We set the context by looking at the past decade of rising protectionism and the impact on the global economy. Deborah points out that despite all the frictions, global trade volume has increased. But at the same time, industry lobbying for protection has also risen, and the dream of creating numerous manufacturing jobs has remained largely unfulfilled. The irony is that protectionism, in today’s tech and automation-intensive production processes, rewards the capital owner much more than labour. We then think through the likely measures and possible retaliations under Trump 2.0. Later we move on to the state of various trade initiatives like CP-TPP and RCEP; Deborah highlights that much more needs to be done given the intensifying headwinds. We conclude with a fascinating discussion on the evolving nature of trade in goods vs services, diffused nature of ownership, and the various, specious national security arguments. Trade war is here to stay; analysts like Deborah are crucial in navigating through the resulting fog. Deborah’s latest article: hinrichfoundation.com/research/article/trade-and-geopolitics/why-a-battle-to-define-connected-cars-matters/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Szingapúr trip. Kopi. Kávés kérdések. Oscar-szezon. Sorozat update.
Happy new year! We kick off the year with a discussion on the likely impact of Trump policies on US markets, starting with the 1890s McKinley tariff narrative. There are major lessons for the market outlook from that episode, in our view. Returning to the present, we think through the ways tariffs and immigration measures can complicate the inflation picture and the Fed easing narrative. From there, we consider implications for rates, credit, and FX. We then assess the Asian outlook in the context of Trump 2.0. We end with a stock-taking of China’s recent economic performance and the road ahead for supportive measures. Two recent publications:Macro Insights Weekly: The coming trade shock and AsiaASEAN-6 2025 Outlook: CrosswindsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
We bring the year to an end with astute market strategist and Fed watcher Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar. Sri begins by taking stock of the US economy and markets, how they have been fuelled by fiscal stimulus and the Fed put. Sri is a strong critic of the Fed’s track record on price and financial stability, and he worries that inflation and market risks could be back on the horizon in 2025, even if they seem remote now. We talk about the balance sheet of US households, which look fine on aggregate, but Sri points out that those at the low-end of the income spectrum are struggling with high cost of living and debt service. On corporate balance sheet, Sri worries about commercial real estate and the proliferation of private equity and debt. We then take a look at the outlook for the dollar, gold, and EM assets. Sri sees a year of two halves; first the Trump trades and then the fading of the sugar rush. Expect a volatile 2025.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Kopi Joe Coffee Company, once a small start-up in Slumberland, is now a global brand with a niche following. Owner Oskar Mielardeaux makes a webcam call to Tomas Anonymous, to check out the new "Cozy LoFi Kopi Joe" video streaming service. More about Slumberland at this link. Oskar Mielardeaux performed by Nick Sleeper. Hire Nick for your voice project at fiverr Songs by Cloudwarmer appear courtesy the creative commons license CC BY-SA 4.0 Purchase Cloudwarmer music at Bandcamp one // ten // from the album "LoFi Beats" The sound design in this episode owes thanks to Freesound Project contributors: lukeirl, yuval, pogmothoin, florianreichelt, daveincamas, djones, kevp8888, pnmcarrierailfan, etheraudio. Thank YOU for listening to Slumberland!
Cycling while looking for the ideal coffee spot is a healthy and enjoyable activity. - Bersepeda sambil mencari tempat minum kopi yang ideal adalah kegiatan yang sehat dan menyenangkan.
Are today's policy challenges and market behaviour largely about post pandemic macro, or are they reflecting fiscal, monetary, and financial “dominance” that stem from two decades of interventions? Mustafa Chowdhury, a veteran of bond and credit market analysis, returns to Kopi Time to offer a nuanced but highly important perspective on the impact of policy distortion on market behaviour. Why did the long-end of the US yield curve sell-off after the September rate cut? Why haven't banks reduced their duration exposure despite the regional bank crisis last year? Why are long-term mortgage rates so high and why aren't short-term products available? And still, why is the housing market so strong? What about the perennial academic and policy debate on price levels versus differences, and how has that caused monetary policy errors? Given all this, what is the outlook for rates, FX, credit, and financial stability? This rich conversation offers excellent insights; a must listen for economists and market strategists.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Gaurav Keerthi, Head of Advisory and Emerging Business at Ensign InfoSecurity, joins Kopi Time to provide a fascinating overview of the current state of affairs in cybersecurity. We begin with the intersection of geopolitics and cyberattacks. From state sponsored defensive and offensive teams to independent actors with a range of motives, the number of agents attacking the integrity of national power grids, airports, water supply, along with healthcare and education systems, has proliferated at an extraordinary pace in recent decades. In addition to nations, large companies and individuals face millions of attacks a day that are increasingly sophisticated. Even with a tiny fraction succeeding, cyber crimes have become an economy worth hundreds of billions of the dollars. Gaurav works through the processes behind building systems that are not 100% immune from cyberattacks, but capable of bouncing back in the event of an attack. With AI in play already, and quantum on track to disrupt cryptography, new waves to technology are making cyber defence more challenging, but the same tech is also being used to build tools and practices for higher degrees of surveillance and resilience. Gaurav's views are more realistic than pessimistic, focused on risk management. A must listen. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
We dive into the implications of Donald Trump's emphatic win at the US presidential elections. Angela Mancini, partner at Control Risks, a global specialist risk consultancy, discusses the factors underlying the outcome, its implication for US policy, especially with regards to Asia. We talk about business strategies under Trump 2.0, and the key issue--risks around China-US relations. We also talk about where the Democratic Party goes from here. The podcast was recorded at our annual macro and markets outlook event. Here is the publication that goes with it. Defying the trend: Economic Outlook and Market Strategy for 2025.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
What is the current state of fintech? Varun Mittal, founder of Fintech Nation, returns to Kopi Time after nearly 100 episodes to comment on the changes in the last four years. We discuss the depth and breadth of the sector, its profitability and investor returns across geographies, and the competition/collaboration relationship between banks and nonbank financial companies. We discuss fintech's role in wealth planning and financial inclusion, the proliferation of payments solutions, and the state of development in the worlds of cryptos, stablecoins, and CBDCs. Discussions then move on to the impact of AI/GenAI on the financial sector and likely forthcoming regulation. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This podcast is an 11-minute reflection on the recently concluded IMF annual meetings, held at Washington DC. The meetings were characterised by relief over global economic resiliency, juxtaposed by heightened concerns about a variety of risks. Global growth is expected to remain stable between 2024 and 2025. Concerns about inflation have receded, but we caution against a victory lap. USD weaponisation and trade wars are causing investor strategies to shift. EM resilience would be tested by the outcome of the US elections. Intersection of AI and capital markets is generating interest from regulators. We discuss a chapter in the IMF's Global Financial Stability Report on this theme.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Shai Akabas, Executive Director of the Bipartisan Policy Center's Economic Policy Program, joins Kopi Time to discuss all things US fiscal. There is no silver lining in this conversation, the outlook is gloomy, period. We begin with the US fiscal position over the past 25 years, going from balanced budget to deficits of around 7% of GDP, from net debt/GDP of 35% to 100%. Shai walks us through the various unfunded tax cuts and emergency spending outlays, with no consensus on dealing with the ballooning fiscal obligations, that led to today's situation. And the outlook, with funding for various entitlement programs getting stretched precisely when spending needs are rising due to aging, is even gloomier. Tax increases, even if not through policy but by better enforcement of current laws could help, but that requires a well-funded tax authority. Tariffs, as disruptive as they are to the global economy, make up for a tiny part of total revenues. Bold bipartisan legislation to deal with entitlements is long overdue. Spending more on interest costs than national defence or healthcare is simply not tenable for the medium term; reforms are needed urgently. Shai's warnings are loud and clear; hopefully they are heeded at some point in this decade.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.